The China-Global South Podcast

China is facing serious headwinds across much of Latin America as the United States ramps up pressure to curb Beijing's engagement in the region. The Chinese have encountered major setbacks in Panama, Mexico, Chile, and potentially in Honduras, where the new government is actively considering switching diplomatic ties back to Taiwan. But that is not the case in Brazil. Chinese businesses are investing record amounts in South America's largest economy and buying up more of the country's vast reserves of natural resources, including oil, soybeans, and critical minerals. Tulio Cariello, research and content director at the China-Brazil Business Council, joins Eric from Rio de Janeiro to discuss his latest report on Chinese investment trends in Brazil and explains why the country is now the top destination in the world for Chinese FDI.

One of the most common talking points among policymakers and analysts in Washington is the belief that China aims to replace the United States as the world's dominant power. Variations of that narrative are also widely shared in many European capitals. There is little doubt that China is asserting itself more forcefully in global affairs, especially amid a new era of Great Power competition. But senior officials in Beijing have also made clear that they have little interest in taking on the full responsibilities and obligations that come with traditional global leadership. In a recent Foreign Policy article, Jeremy Friedman, an associate professor at Harvard Business School, explored the limits and ambitions of China's expanding international power. He joins Eric to discuss what China wants… and what it does not want from a changing global order.

President Donald Trump arrived in Beijing this week hoping China could help contain the escalating U.S.-Iran crisis, but the summit underscored how limited Beijing's influence over Tehran actually is. In Washington, many policymakers assume China can pressure Iran because it buys the vast majority of Iranian oil. But the reality is far more complicated, and there is little evidence the Iranian leadership would make major national security concessions at Beijing's request. William Figueroa, a leading Iran-China scholar at the University of Groningen in the Netherlands, joins Eric to unpack what U.S. officials misunderstand about China's relationship with Iran, why Beijing is reluctant to use its economic leverage aggressively, and how China itself is vulnerable to the broader economic fallout from the war.

China operates the world's largest fleet of deep-sea research vessels, with more than 40 ships officially tasked with civilian scientific missions. But an investigation by CNN and the environmental news outlet Mongabay found that many of these ships appear to operate in ways more in line with intelligence gathering than with purely scientific research. The CNN/Mongabay investigation tracked eight vessels over a five-year period and found that they spent very little time conducting their stated objective to do deep-sea mining research and instead, according to marine trafficking data, logged extensive trips in strategic waterways and sensitive military zones that could prove critical in the event of a future maritime conflict with the United States. Kara Fox, a senior reporter at CNN, and Elizabeth Alberts, a senior staff writer at Mongabay, led the joint investigation and join Eric to discuss what their findings do... and don't reveal about China's fleet of deep-sea research vessels. Show Notes: CNN: China's growing influence in the Pacific is 5,000 meters deep by Kara Fox, Elizabeth Alberts, Lou Robinson and Byron Manley Mongabay: China's deep-sea mining fleet may also track US submarines by Elizabeth Alberts and Kara Fox  

When Panama's Supreme Court ruled that Hong Kong-based conglomerate CK Hutchison's operation of two ports on either side of the Panama Canal was unconstitutional, President Jose Raul Mulina said at the time that he wasn't too concerned about China retaliating. Now, several months later, Mulina and other Panamanian officials are becoming increasingly concerned that this is precisely what's happening after China detained dozens of Panamanian-flagged vessels or "inspections." Separately, China called on the two shipping companies, Maersk and MSC, slated to take over operations of the Panamanian ports vacated by CK Hutchison, to reconsider — insinuating there could be severe consequences if they don't comply. Pedro Armada, managing partner at Armada Risk Consulting, is following the events closely from Panama City and joins Eric to discuss the increasingly difficult position the government finds itself in between the U.S. and an increasingly assertive China.

The U.S. created the post-World War II international order that it no longer wants to lead today. But what replaces it is still unknown. So, in the meantime, small and medium-sized countries, so-called "middle powers," are scrambling to form new partnerships to insulate themselves from the inevitable instability that will arise from this transition. We're seeing this play out daily now as leaders from South Africa, Brazil, Australia, Vietnam, Japan, and dozens of other countries crisscross the globe at a frenetic pace to build what many are describing as a new middle-power coalition. But Sarang Shidore, director of the Global South program at the Quincy Institute, argued in a Foreign Policy column that it's going to be difficult, if not impossible, for a coalition like this to succeed. Sarang joins Eric to explain why divergent north-south interests will be very hard to overcome.

U.S. President Donald Trump will travel to Asia next week for a highly anticipated summit with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping. Trump will be returning to a region he's personally transformed through his challenges to the international order, tariffs, and now the Iran war that's hit Asia's energy sector especially hard. The U.S.-led security architecture across the Asia-Pacific is also showing signs of real strain, as alliances fray and the institutions set up to counter China are on the verge of collapse. Derek Grossman, a prominent U.S.-Asia scholar at the University of Southern California and CGSP's non-resident fellow for the Asia-Pacific, argues that the Quad security partnership is now "on the brink of extinction." Derek joins Eric to discuss how 18 months of Trump's foreign policy have reshaped Asia's security landscape.

Ties between China and Vietnam appear to be improving across every front. Vietnam is selling more to China, while China is investing more in its southern neighbor. Even on thorny territorial issues in the South China Sea, the two sides said they're talking through their differences. And last month, Vietnamese leader To Lam traveled to China in his capacity as both General Secretary of the Communist Party and President of the country, a model many say was inspired by the Chinese political structure. All of this has prompted discussion among some Vietnamese analysts that Hanoi is swinging in Beijing's direction. But Khang Vu, a visiting scholar in Vietnamese political science at Boston College, strongly disagrees. Khang joins Eric to discuss why Hanoi's longstanding commitment to non-alignment among the major powers remains the bedrock of Vietnamese foreign policy. Show Notes: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace: Why Vietnam Is Swinging in China's Direction by Nguyen Khac Giang The Diplomat: The Myth of Vietnam's Tilt Toward China by Khang Vu The Diplomat: Interpreting the Future of Vietnam-China Relations Through the 2026 Joint Statement by Hai Hong Nguyen and Vu Quy Son

Sales of Chinese renewable energy products surged to record highs in March in response to the disruption of oil and gas supplies brought on by the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran. Shipments of Chinese-made electric vehicles, batteries, and solar panels all surged as countries and consumers around the world are moving quickly to insulate themselves from the worsening oil shocks. Tim McDonell, climate and energy editor at the online news site Semafor, joins Eric to explain how China has spent the past 40 years preparing for what's happening in today's energy market.

The development finance industry would like us to believe that money for infrastructure, education, and other needs goes to where it's needed most. The reality, though, isn't that simple. Politics, it turns out, plays a much more important role than many would like to admit. Keyi Tang, an assistant professor at ESADE Business School in Spain, studied development finance data on 48 African countries over a 20-year period that revealed that money often flows to those who hold influence rather than to those who need it most. Keyi joins Eric to discuss the findings that she recently published in her new book, "Power Over Progress: How Politics Shape Development Finance in Africa."

Long neglected by the United States, Latin America is now on the frontlines of the global contest with China. Washington's new National Security Strategy made it clear that the U.S. must remain the unrivaled hegemonic power in the Western Hemisphere, something it can't do so long as China is the largest trading partner for most Latin American countries. The U.S. is particularly unnerved by the scale of Chinese infrastructure development across the region and the fact that it's becoming a major investor, particularly in larger countries like Brazil. Former Chilean ambassador to China Jorge Heine, now a non-resident fellow at the Quincy Institute, joins Eric to discuss why this competition is accelerating and whether "active non-alignment" remains a viable strategy in this new era of geopolitical competition.

The Cambodian government is leading a massive, unprecedented crackdown on the scamming business that once accounted for an estimated one-third of the country's GDP. For the past six months, heavily armed security forces have raided scam centers across the country and arrested more than 6,000 in the first couple months of the year. The campaign began last fall when the United States issued a criminal indictment against Chen Zhi, a multi-billionaire Chinese national who built a vast empire in Cambodia that included a huge network of scam compounds that generated a staggering $30 million a day. Huang Yan, a Chinese journalist based in Southeast Asia, is among a small group of international journalists covering every detail of the ongoing crackdown against scam centers. Huang joins Eric from Bangkok to discuss why the fall of Chen Zhi was so important and what it reveals about the outsized role that Chinese actors are playing in this saga.

U.S., European, and Japanese leaders are all talking about the urgency of building new supply chains to end their reliance on China for critical minerals and batteries that will power next-generation mobility, technology, and weapons. It all sounds great and makes for good politics at home, but the reality is that China's dominance of these vital supply chains is so big and still growing that it will be nearly impossible to close the gap anytime soon. Zeyi Yang, a senior writer covering technology and business at Wired, recently detailed this phenomenon in a cover article for the magazine about how "Chinese EV batteries are eating the world." Zeyi joins Eric to discuss why it's going to be so difficult for the rest of the world to match China's near-total dominance of this increasingly vital sector.

Conservative media outlets and think tank analysts in the United States have sharply criticized China for what they say is Beijing's failure to support its supposed "allies" in Venezuela and Iran. Their arguments have gained traction on X and other social media platforms, where critics portray China as an unreliable partner that avoids confrontation, especially with the United States. Other analysts dispute that interpretation. Scholars such as Evan Feigenbaum of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace argue the criticism rests on a flawed assumption: that China's relationships with countries like Iran resemble the formal alliance commitments the United States maintains with its partners. In reality, Beijing's partnerships carry no comparable security guarantees. In a recent Foreign Policy article, Wang Zichen, deputy secretary-general of the Beijing-based Center for China and Globalization, pushes back against these critiques. He outlines China's strategic priorities and explains why Beijing is unlikely to offer the kind of security commitments that define U.S. alliances. Zichen joins Eric to discuss why China structures its global relationships differently—and why Beijing has little intention of acting as a security patron for partners like Iran.

China has launched a series of global governance and trade initiatives over the past decade that have sparked concern in U.S. and European capitals about whether Beijing is seeking to displace the Western-led international order. The so-called "5Gs" include the Global Governance/Security/Development/Civilization/AI Initiatives, along with the BRI, SCO, AIIB, and numerous other Chinese-initiated programs, all of which seem to suggest that China is, in fact, building a parallel international governance architecture to replace the post-WWII institutions. But Joel Ng, senior fellow and head of the Centre for Multilateralism Studies at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, offers a different interpretation. He argues that China's new governance initiatives are not primarily designed to replace the existing international order. Instead, Beijing is using them as instruments to advance its own more narrowly defined strategic interests. Joel joins Eric to discuss the new book he edited, The Dragon's Emerging Order: Sinocentric Multilateralism and Global Responses.

The U.S., Japan, and other G7 countries are scrambling to secure critical minerals to end their reliance on Chinese-controlled supply chains. Every week, there's news of another mining deal for cobalt, lithium, and other resources essential to powering 21st century technology. But the race to control critical resources may already be over. Decades before countries in the Global West recognized the importance of these minerals and metals, China quietly built out a vast network of mining and refining operations. Nicholas Niarchos, author of the new bestselling book "The Elements of Power: A Story of War, Technology, and the Dirtiest Supply Chain on Earth," joins Eric & Géraud to discuss the history of the battery metal competition and why China's early moves in this space may have given it an insurmountable lead.

The United States and Israel have launched strikes on Iran, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and triggering a full-scale war in the Middle East. As the region descends into conflict, a fascinating debate has emerged about what this means for China: from the surge in Chinese defense stocks and weapons export opportunities, to the collapse of Beijing's landmark Saudi-Iran diplomatic agreement.  Is this a strategic disaster for China, or does the chaos actually create unexpected openings? Andrea Ghiselli, research director at The ChinaMed Project and a lecturer in international politics at the University of Exeter, joins Eric to discuss the stark differences in how this conflict is discussed in China and in the Global West.

The Panamanian government formally took over the two ports operated by Hong Kong-based CK Hutchison this week at both ends of the Panama Canal. U.S. officials celebrated the move as part of their larger effort to expel China from the Western Hemisphere. Washington has now set its sights on the Chinese-owned Chancay mega port in Peru. But given the extent of Chinese engagement in Latin America, most notably the fact that the region does more than half-a-trillion dollars of trade annually with China, is it even possible for the U.S. to expel the Chinese? Pedro Armada, a Panama City-based risk consultant who closely follows the U.S.-China rivalry in Latin America, joins Eric to discuss what happens next following the expulsion of CK Hutchison from the canal zone and what it means for the rest of Latin America.

Shenzhen-based Transsion Holdings is now a massive Chinese technology company that few people outside of Africa and certain parts of Asia have heard of. Even in China, the brand, now the world's 5th-largest mobile phone producer, remains largely unknown. Transsion gained notoriety after it entered the African market in 2006. Back then, the world's largest phone brands all but ignored African consumers, selling low-end, late-model devices designed primarily for Western and Asian consumers. The Chinese company saw an opportunity and tweaked the software on its phones to optimize photos for darker skin tones, and added a suite of features like dual SIM cards, dustproofing, and longer battery life to sell sub-$100 phones to Africa's booming youth market. That formula worked, and the company's three brands, Tecno, Infinix, and iTel, have dominated the market for more than a decade. But little is known about how Transsion achieved its success in Africa. Lu Miao, an assistant professor at Lingnan University in Hong Kong, joins Eric & Cobus to lay out the company's strategy and why it was so effective in a market that others largely ignored. Purchase the book: The Transsion Approach: Translating Chinese Mobile Technology in Africa by Lu Miao: https://a.co/d/04AKaajZ

The United States and China are pursuing sharply different strategies in a region that is no longer best understood as the "Middle East," but as part of a broader Asian-centered geopolitical system historically described as "West Asia." This vast region stretches from countries along the Western Pacific and the Indian Ocean, all the way to the Eastern Mediterranean. While the U.S. remains the undisputed military hegemon in this theater, China is steadily becoming the indispensable economic power, providing access to vast pools of capital, new technology, and expanding trade. Mohammed Soliman, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute and a director at the geopolitical advisory firm McLarty Associates, joins Eric from Washington, D.C., to discuss his new book that explores how the U.S., China, and other powers are adapting to this new expanded view of the Middle East known as "West Asia." Purchase the book: West Asia: A New American Grand Strategy in the Middle East by Mohammed Soliman

When the U.S. Development Finance Corporation (DFC) was launched in 2019, a big part of its mandate from Congress was to counter China's Belt and Road Initiative. That sentiment was a key theme on Capitol Hill late last year during the DFC's Congressional reauthorization, when lawmakers from both parties made urgent appeals for the agency to do more to challenge China in the Global South. Congress nearly tripled the DRC's budget from $60 billion to $205 billion to be used over the next five years. While that is a substantial increase, it's just a small fraction of what Chinese entities spend each year on BRI projects. Karthik Sankaran and Dan Ford, researchers at the Quincy Institute in Washington, D.C., join Eric to discuss why they contend it's a bad idea for the DFC to compete head-on with China, rather than focus on its original mandate to build market capacity in poorer nations.

There's been a lot of discussion in recent years about the financial health of China's Belt and Road Initiative. Critics contend the BRI became overstretched, bankrupting borrowers and straining creditors suffering from a weakening Chinese economy. Even the Chinese government sought to reframe the BRI with its "small yet beautiful" tagline to reflect a new era of purported austerity. And while all of that was certainly true when it comes to state-backed Chinese entities that used to be at the forefront of the BRI, new data from Griffith University in Australia and the Green Finance and Development Center at Fudan University reveals that Chinese private enterprises are now leading the way. Christoph Nedopil, director of the Griffith Asia Institute, joins Eric to review the 2025 BRI data and explain what led to a record year of BRI engagement around the world.

As debate intensifies over the unraveling of the U.S.-led international order, sparked by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney's stark remarks at Davos, small states are being forced to rethink how they survive and advance in an increasingly fragmented global system. Carney captured the anxiety shared by many global leaders when he bluntly declared that the U.S.-led international order is over. In this episode of the China Global South Podcast, Eric is joined by Sagar Prasai, an independent advisor to international development agencies, and Mandakini D. Surie, an independent development consultant with over two decades of experience across governments, NGOs, and think tanks. The discussion draws on their recent report examining how small states in South Asia are navigating a rapidly emerging multipolar world shaped in part by China's expanding role. Building on their research, Prasai and Surie unpack the strategic calculations unfolding across Asia—dynamics that closely mirror the pressures facing smaller and developing countries across the Global South as they adapt to a shifting balance of power.

The collapse of the post-war international system now underway will have a disproportionate impact on African countries that rely heavily on multilateral bodies like the UN. Beyond a pull-back of aid and humanitarian assistance, African countries must also contend with an increasingly hostile United States. Dozens of African countries have been targeted by the Trump administration for visa restrictions, trade sanctions, and regularly denigrated by the president himself. At the same time, U.S. diplomats across the continent were ordered by the State Department in January to remind African governments to express more gratitude to the U.S. for its "generosity." Judd Devermont, the former top Africa strategist at the White House during the Biden administration and now an operating partner at Kupanda Capital in Washington, joins Eric & Cobus to discuss the future of U.S.-Africa relations and China's expanding presence on the continent.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney's speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos this week will likely be remembered as one of the most significant orations of the early 21st century. Carney channeled the fear and frustration of many global leaders when he defiantly declared that the U.S.-led international order is over. The "rupture" that Carney referenced in his address has profound consequences for China as it moves to reshape a part of this new international order to better align with its interests. Zongyuan Zoe Liu, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and a senior research scholar at Columbia University, joins Eric & Cobus to discuss why this is such a pivotal time for China as it moves to become a peer power of the United States, at least economically, without triggering the so-called "Thuycides Trap" that dictates this kind of rivalry often leads to war. Show Notes: Foreign Affairs: China's Long Economic War — How Beijing Builds Leverage for Indefinite Competition by Zongyuan Zoe Liu

China was among the first and most vocal opponents of the U.S. military intervention in Venezuela and the abduction of President Nicolas Maduro. Curiously, though, when U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to launch military strikes against Iran as Tehran dealt with a massive popular uprising, China was largely silent. Both Venezuela and Iran have high-level strategic partnerships with China, yet the Chinese leadership's responses to the crises in each country are radically different. William (Bill) Figueroa, a leading China-Iran scholar and an assistant professor at the University of Groningen in the Netherlands, joins Eric to discuss his latest CGSP column, which explains Beijing's low-key response and why the strategy is often misunderstood by many U.S. and European stakeholders.

In this special bonus episode, Eric speaks with Kaiser Kuo, host of the popular Sinica Podcast, about China's response to the U.S. military intervention in Venezuela and the capture of President Nicolas Maduro. Many U.S. and European analysts have framed Maduro's downfall as a "setback" or even an "embarrassment" for Beijing, but while that may be true, Eric argues that it's also premature to make such declarations less than a week after Maduro's downfall. After all, U.S.-led military interventions in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Libya all started well but ended up being very costly failures for Washington.

One of the prevailing narratives that's emerged following the U.S. military intervention in Venezuela and the detention of President Nicolás Maduro is that this is a major setback for China. Some analysts have called it a "strategic failure" on Beijing's part, while others have described it as "reality check" for China's role as a "global player." But China's ability to influence events in Venezuela and elsewhere in Latin America is extremely limited, so the assessment that what happened in Caracas was a blow to Beijing may also be overstated. Alonso Illueca, CGSP's non-resident fellow for Latin America and the Caribbean, joins Eric from Panama City to discuss whether Maduro's capture presents new risks or opportunities for China.

In this special year-end edition of The China-Global South Podcast, Eric, Cobus, and Géraud look back on the top stories of 2025 and look ahead to the key trend to watch in 2026. 

The increasingly acrimonious U.S.-China relationship is the defining trend of this era, upending global politics, economics, and security, especially across the Global South. Countries that have worked hard from having to pick sides in this new competition, may longer have that luxury as this rivalry intensifies. Jane Perlez, a Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist and a former longtime China correspondent for The New York Times, has been covering this story since the 1980s. Now, together with acclaimed Harvard University China scholar Rana Mitter, she's launched season 3 of her award-winning podcast Face Off: The U.S. vs. China, where they explore the key trends reshaping ties between these two powers. Jane joins Eric from Sydney to discuss the forces driving this rivalry: leadership personality, domestic pressure, technological competition, and the tightening link between geopolitics and economic strategy.

Soon after USAID was closed in February, speculation circulated that China would move quickly to fill the void left by the United States. That did not happen. While the Chinese did step in to provide modest additional funding for a handful of programs, like demining initiatives in Cambodia and support for the Africa CDC in Addis Ababa, overall, there's been no significant change in China's foreign aid programs. That did not surprise Alicia Chen, a PhD candidate at Stanford University, who noted in a recent Foreign Affairs article that Beijing is very tactical with where and how it distributes overseas development assistance. Alicia joins Eric to discuss Beijing's foreign aid strategy and how it differs from other major donors.

In this episode of the China Global South Podcast, Eric Olander and Cobus van Staden unpack a major question facing middle powers everywhere: What happens when the global security architecture you relied on for decades no longer exists? Fresh from meetings at Australian National University and the Australasian Aid Conference, Eric shares conversations with scholars, diplomats, and policymakers in Canberra who are wrestling with a new geopolitical reality. Topics include: Eric and Cobus also break down China's push to promote its Global Security Initiative at the African Union headquarters in Addis Ababa, the limitations of the UN system, and why both Western and Chinese security narratives fail to address Africa's real on-the-ground security challenges.

China has funded, designed, and built more than 200 government buildings across Africa, including the headquarters of the African Union and Ecowas, foreign ministry annexes in Ghana and Kenya, and at least 15 national parliaments. Eric and Cobus speak with Innocent Batsani-Ncube, an associate professor of African politics at Queen Mary University of London and author of the new book China and African Parliaments. Drawing on extensive fieldwork in Lesotho, Malawi, and Zimbabwe, Batsani-Ncube explains how China's parliamentary construction boom works, why African governments welcome it, and what he calls "subtle power"—a form of elite-level influence that sits between soft and sharp power.

China's rapid ascent from rural poverty to industrial superpower reshaped the global economy and established a new center of gravity for manufacturing. Today, Chinese factories anchor much of the world's supply chains, producing goods at a speed and scale that few countries can match. Behind this transformation is a system that author Dan Wang describes in his new book "Breakneck: China's Quest to Engineer the Future" as the "engineering state," a model defined by massive investments in infrastructure, strategic planning, and so-called "process knowledge" gleaned from the country's rapid industrial development. Now, more and more, the Chinese government touts this development model as an example for other countries in the Global South to emulate. Dan joins Eric to discuss whether the so-called "engineering state" is replicable elsewhere or if it's a uniquely Chinese phenomenon. CHAPTERS: • Setting the Stage – China's rise from rural poverty to industrial superpower • The Engineering State – How China builds, plans, and organizes at a massive scale • Roots of the Model – East Asian development traditions and Soviet legacies • Infrastructure as Strategy – High-speed rail, bridges, airports, and the costs behind them • Industrial Capacity – Manufacturing clusters, supply chains, and process knowledge • The Speed Advantage – Why Chinese firms move faster than global competitors • Tech Transfer Debates – Joint ventures, old IP, and myths about forced transfers • Subsidies and Support – What Chinese industrial subsidies do—and what they don't • Exporting the Model – Limits of replication in Africa, Asia, and the Global South • The China Price – How scale, logistics, and workforce learning lock in dominance • Internal Tensions – Debt, underused infrastructure, and diminishing returns • Shifting Priorities – Xi's push away from consumer tech and toward strategic industries • Global Backlash – Overcapacity, trade pushback, and rising protectionism • Future Crossroads – Why China's development engine is losing momentum • Lessons for the Global South – What countries can adapt—and what they must avoid JOIN THE DISCUSSION: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander  Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social FOLLOW CGSP IN FRENCH & SPANISH:  French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas JOIN US ON PATREON! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth

China is breaking the rules of development. Typically, as countries progress up the value chain, they transition from agriculture to light industry, then to heavy industry, and ultimately to high-technology and services. And as they move up the value chain, this creates opportunities for less-developed countries to advance. But China's not doing that. Chinese manufacturers are holding on to their immense productive capacity, enabling them to produce both low-tech sneakers and high-tech semiconductors at a scale and cost that are unrivaled. Now, as developing countries around the world seek to move up the value chain, they will have to compete head-on against the dreaded "China Price." James Kynge, who covered China for nearly 30 years at the Financial Times, delved into this challenge in a fascinating audiobook that came out earlier this year, "Global Tech Wars: China's Race to Dominate." James joins Eric from London to explain how China's ability to produce a $6 toaster exemplifies the country's enormous manufacturing advantage that will be very difficult, if not impossible, for other countries to match. CHAPTERS: • Introduction – The $6 toaster and the global value chain crisis • The Flying Geese Model – How automation broke development's old path • China's Dual Reality – A continent-sized economy of billionaires and low-wage labor • Industrial Clusters – The unbeatable advantage of Shenzhen and the Pearl River Delta • The Global South's Dilemma – Competing against the "China price" • Automation and Inequality – Why manufacturing isn't moving offshore • The $1 Trillion Surplus – Trade backlash and global tensions • Searching for Solutions – Industrial policy and self-strengthening in the Global South • Winners and Losers – Cheap exports, consumer gains, and producer pain • Political Risk – Xi Jinping's lesson from Western deindustrialization • The Humanoid Robot Moment – From $6 toasters to $6,000 robots • China's Auto Revolution – BYD and the new wave of affordable EVs • The Double-Edged Future – Opportunity and disruption in China's rise SHOW NOTES: Financial Times: Global Tech Wars: China's Race to Dominate by James Kynge Financial Times: China's plan to reshape world trade on its own terms by James Kynge and Keith Fray JOIN THE DISCUSSION: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander | @christiangeraud Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social FOLLOW CGSP IN FRENCH & SPANISH:  French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas JOIN US ON PATREON! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth

As China's economic influence expands, so does its ambition to shape the very system that once constrained it. In this episode of The China-Global South Podcast, Eric speaks with Greg Chin and Kevin Gallagher from Boston University's Global Development Policy Center about their new book that details China's transformation from a "rules taker" within the Bretton Woods system to a "rules maker" who's now reshaping the international development finance architecture. Greg and Kevin explore the country's growing role in the IMF and World Bank, its creation of new institutions like the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and the New Development Bank (NDB), and what this means for developing nations navigating between Western and Chinese-led finance. CHAPTERS: • Introduction – A brief calm in U.S.–China tensions • Rule Taker → Rule Maker – China's rise inside global finance • Building Alternatives – Creating the AIIB and NDB • Two-Way Countervailing Power – Leveraging inside–outside influence • Green Finance and "Next Practices" – Raising the bar on development norms • Debt and Diplomacy – How China handles restructuring • Institutional Layering – Shaping without dismantling • Washington's Dilemma – Anxiety over losing control • The Global South's New Agency – More options, more leverage • A New Multilateral Moment – Uncertain future for global governance SHOW NOTES:

China sits at the heart of Indonesia's energy paradox — driving the country's ambitious shift toward renewables while remaining deeply entrenched in its coal economy. Chinese financing and technology are accelerating Indonesia's clean energy buildout, from nickel refining to electric vehicles and solar manufacturing. Yet the same Chinese firms are also behind large swathes of Indonesia's coal infrastructure, including off-grid plants that power the smelters fueling its industrial boom. Kevin Zongzhe Li, an affiliated researcher at the Asia Society Policy Institute's Center for China Analysis, explored this paradox in a recent report that also details how Jakarta is carefully positioning itself among the major powers to facilitate the transition to more sustainable energy supplies. SHOW NOTES: The Asia Society Policy Institute: Indonesia's Energy Transition: Exercising Strategic Agency in Partnership with China by Kevin Zongzhe Li JOIN THE DISCUSSION: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander | @christiangeraud Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social FOLLOW CGSP IN FRENCH & SPANISH:  French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas JOIN US ON PATREON! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth

Chinese exports are booming—but ties with the U.S. are collapsing. Across Asia, from Beijing to Manila, Washington's shifting strategy under Trump is reshaping alliances and testing security guarantees that have underpinned the region for decades. Eric speaks with James Crabtree, a distinguished visiting fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations and the Asia Society, about how Asia's leaders are adapting to a world in flux: China's mix of confidence and anxiety amid its own economic slowdown How Trump's erratic policy is breaking apart the anti-China coalition Growing doubts in Tokyo, Seoul, and Manila about U.S. security guarantees Taiwan's precarious position and fears of being left alone Vietnam's balancing act between U.S. tariffs and China's dominance Why India is quietly building backup plans with Europe JOIN THE DISCUSSION: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social FOLLOW CGSP IN FRENCH: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine JOIN US ON PATREON! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth

For centuries, the United States was the undisputed hegemonic power across the Western Hemisphere; however, that is no longer the case today. China is now the largest trading partner for the majority of countries in Latin America and is quickly filling the void left by a decades-long U.S. retrenchment. In his new book, "Economic Displacement: China and the End of U.S. Primacy in Latin America," Francisco Urdinez, an assistant professor at the Pontifical Catholic University of Chile, argues that U.S. neglect of the region has created a critical opening for China to expand both its economic and political influence in the Americas. Francisco joins Eric from Santiago to discuss the future of the U.S.-China rivalry in Latin America. SHOW NOTES: Purchase a copy of "Economic Displacement: China and the End of U.S. Primacy in Latin America" and receive a 20% discount through October 31, 2026, by entering the code ECDT25 at checkout: www.cambridge.org/9781009672269 JOIN THE DISCUSSION: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social FOLLOW CGSP IN FRENCH: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine JOIN US ON PATREON! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth

In the weeks since Chinese President Xi Jinping announced the new Global Governance Initiative (GGI) during a speech at the SCO summit in Tianjin, Beijing's propaganda apparatus has been working overtime to build support for the new plan, particularly in Africa, Latin America, and other developing regions. The GGI is the latest in a series of Chinese global initiatives that also focus on development, human rights, and security, which it's using to stake a larger claim for international leadership at a time when the U.S.-led system is collapsing. Brian Wong, an assistant professor at Hong Kong University and a leading scholar on Chinese global governance, joins Eric to discuss what Beijing is hoping to accomplish with the GGI and its other governance initiatives. SHOW NOTES: Routledge: Moral Debt: Defending a New Account of Reparative Justice by Brian Wong Hong Kong University Press: Towards a Future for BRICS+ edited by Heiwai Tang and Brian Wong  JOIN THE DISCUSSION: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social FOLLOW CGSP IN FRENCH: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine JOIN US ON PATREON! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth

It wasn't that long ago when the leaders from India and China couldn't even look at each other when they were in the same room. Today, the situation is very different. Ties between the two Asian powers have improved dramatically from a few years ago, when a violent conflict along their disputed border sent relations into a deep freeze. But even though China and India have resolved a number of their differences in recent years, serious problems persist, none more so than their disputed border that remains one of the most heavily armed frontiers in the world. Professor Jabin Jacob, associate professor at the Shiv Nadar Institute of Eminence and one of India's foremost China scholars, joins Eric to discuss why resolving the border dispute, in particular, is going to be very difficult. JOIN THE DISCUSSION: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social FOLLOW CGSP IN FRENCH: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine JOIN US ON PATREON! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth

China's economic ties with Brazil are booming, and 2024 saw a stunning 113% jump in Chinese investment, totaling $4.2 billion across 39 projects, the highest number ever, according to a new report by the Brazil-China Business Council. From renewable energy and oil to mining and automotive manufacturing, Chinese companies are pouring capital into Brazil's economy. This investment boom, though, comes at a sensitive time as China is moving aggressively to reduce its reliance on the U.S., particularly in the food sector. Tulio Cariello, the Council's director of content and research, joins Eric to explain what's driving the surge of Chinese FDI in Brazil and whether this upswing is expected to continue. JOIN THE DISCUSSION: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social FOLLOW CGSP IN FRENCH: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine JOIN US ON PATREON! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth  

The reset between India and China appears to be holding. Nearly two weeks after President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Narendra Modi met on the sidelines of the SCO summit in Tianjin, five years of frigid ties between the two Asian powers are steadily thawing.  However, it will take more than summits and statements to rebuild trust, particularly among Indian policymakers who remain wary of China's close ties with Pakistan and Beijing's broader ambitions across South Asia. Constantino Xavier, a senior fellow at the Centre for Social and Economic Progress in New Delhi and co-author of an in-depth report on Chinese engagement in South Asia, joins Eric to discuss how Modi aims to balance ties with China, the U.S. and Russia while preserving India's legendary non-alignment strategy. JOIN THE DISCUSSION: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social FOLLOW CGSP IN FRENCH: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine JOIN US ON PATREON! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth

Two sharply contrasting foreign policy visions emerged this week from China and the United States. In Beijing, President Xi Jinping outlined an agenda in talks with fellow BRICS leaders that directly challenged Donald Trump's “America First” doctrine, urging instead for stronger multilateral cooperation. Meanwhile in Washington, reports surfaced of a potential overhaul in U.S. security strategy, shifting the Pentagon's focus away from countering China abroad toward reinforcing defenses at home and across the Western Hemisphere. No other region around the world has as much at stake in this duel as Southeast Asia, effectively the frontline in the simmering great power rivalry. Dylan Loh, an associate professor at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore and a leading expert on Chinese foreign policy, joins Eric to discuss how Southeast Asian policymakers are responding to the mounting pressure coming from both Washington and Beijing. JOIN THE DISCUSSION: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social FOLLOW CGSP IN FRENCH: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine JOIN US ON PATREON! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth

While most of the world's attention at this week's Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Tianjin was on Xi Jinping's meetings with leaders from the big powers, namely India and Russia, the Chinese President also spent considerable time with heads of state from many of the world's smallest countries, like the Maldives and Nepal, among others. This is part of China's longstanding small-state diplomacy strategy, where Beijing cultivates relationships with these countries in the Global South through high-level gatherings and the same diplomatic pomp that leaders from more powerful countries receive when they visit the Chinese capital. Alonso Illueca, CGSP's non-resident fellow for Latin America, joins Eric to discuss his latest article on how China's small-state outreach is playing out on the tiny Caribbean island of Dominica (population 75,000) and why it's so effective. SHOW NOTES: The China-Global South Project: Small State, Big Gains: Why Dominica Matters in China's Global Strategy by Alonso Illueca The China-Global South Project: In Bolivia, China's Lithium Extraction Plans Went to the Polls and Lost Badly by Alonso Illueca JOIN THE DISCUSSION: X: @ChinaGSProject | @stadenesque | @eric_olander Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social FOLLOW CGSP IN FRENCH AND ARABIC: Français: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine Arabic: عربي: www.alsin-alsharqalawsat.com | @SinSharqAwsat JOIN US ON PATREON! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth

This week's Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Tianjin signaled China's ambition to redefine global governance. Leaders from more than 20 countries endorsed the Tianjin Declaration, pressing for a multipolar order, tighter security cooperation, and expanded economic integration. The joint statement also went further than past communiqués, condemning Israel's actions in Gaza and reflecting the bloc's growing willingness to weigh in on global conflicts. Eric & Cobus discuss the powerful optics that emerged from this year's gathering, which appeared specifically choreographed to send a clear, unmistakable message to U.S. President Donald Trump. JOIN THE DISCUSSION: X: @ChinaGSProject | @stadenesque | @eric_olander Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social FOLLOW CGSP IN FRENCH AND ARABIC: Français: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine Arabic: عربي: www.alsin-alsharqalawsat.com | @SinSharqAwsat JOIN US ON PATREON! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth  

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi left Northeast Asia this week, embarking on a two-stop trip that includes Japan and then China, where he will participate in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit, which begins on Sunday. The PM's visit comes amid a full-scale implosion of India's ties with the United States, following Washington's imposition this week of a massive 50% tariff on all Indian exports to the U.S., the highest duties on any country in Asia, except China. Derek Grossman, a professor at the University of Southern California and a leading Asia-Pacific affairs analyst in the United States, joins Eric from Los Angeles to discuss the high-stakes politics at this weekend's SCO gathering and whether Donald Trump's actions will coax India and China to reconcile. JOIN THE DISCUSSION: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social FOLLOW CGSP IN FRENCH AND ARABIC: Français: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine Arabic: عربي: www.alsin-alsharqalawsat.com | @SinSharqAwsat JOIN US ON PATREON! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth

China's rapidly expanding presence in the Middle East has sparked a mix of anxiety and excitement, depending on one's perspective. Washington regards Beijing's support of Iran and the Palestinian cause, among other things, as key threats to its strategic interests. While Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, and other regional actors see Beijing as a valuable economic partner. A new book by two leading China-Mideast scholars, Mohamed Alsudairi at the Australian National University and Andrea Ghiselli from the University of Exeter, explores the future of Chinese engagement in the region by laying out three possible scenarios

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi arrived in Islamabad on Wednesday for a three-day visit, following a high-level stop in India earlier in the week, where he met both Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar and Prime Minister Narendra Modi. His trip to Pakistan comes at a pivotal moment. Islamabad has recently repaired relations with the United States after more than a decade of estrangement, just as Washington's ties with India have soured. Eram Ashraf, a UK-based China-Pakistani relations scholar and author of a forthcoming book on Sino-Pakistani security ties during the Cold War, joins Eric to discuss how Beijing is going to maneuver in South Asia's rapidly changing geopolitical landscape. JOIN THE DISCUSSION: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social FOLLOW CGSP IN FRENCH AND ARABIC: Français: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine Arabic: عربي: www.alsin-alsharqalawsat.com | @SinSharqAwsat JOIN US ON PATREON! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth

There's been a lot of speculation in the aftermath of the brief U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran that Beijing would step in to bolster its longtime partners in Tehran. Rumors have been bouncing around that China will sell Iran advanced fighter jets and help rebuild the country's ballistic missile program, among other things. There is no evidence, though, to support any of those claims. Instead, China seems to be taking a more hands-off approach, providing Iran with bountiful moral support while remaining a loyal oil customer, but little else. Bill Figueroa, a leading Iran-China scholar and an assistant professor at the University of Groningen in the Netherlands, joins Eric to explain why China appears to be satisfied with the current state of relations with Iran. JOIN THE DISCUSSION: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social FOLLOW CGSP IN FRENCH AND ARABIC: Français: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine Arabic: عربي: www.alsin-alsharqalawsat.com | @SinSharqAwsat JOIN US ON PATREON! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth

For much of the past two years, we've been told to expect a slimmer, more austere Belt and Road under the new "Small Yet Beautiful" mantra. The days of Chinese mega deals across the Global South were over... or so we thought. Turns out that Chinese firms, largely from the private sector, are continuing to invest heavily in energy, mining, and construction projects in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East, according to new data from Australia's Griffith University and the Green Finance & Development Center in Beijing. Total BRI engagement in the first half of 2025 topped $123 billion, a new record that surpassed the total for last year. Christoph Nedopil, lead author of the new report, joins Eric to explain what's driving the surge in Chinese investment and construction contracts. SHOW NOTES: Griffith University: China Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) Investment Report 2025 H1 b by Christoph Nedopil Financial Times: China's Belt and Road investment and construction activity hits record by Joe Leahy JOIN THE DISCUSSION: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social FOLLOW CGSP IN FRENCH AND ARABIC: Français: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine Arabic: عربي: www.alsin-alsharqalawsat.com | @SinSharqAwsat JOIN US ON PATREON! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth