Podcasts about Institut Montaigne

Que veulent vraiment les jeunes en 2025 ? C'est la question que s'est posé l'Institut Montaigne, think tank de référence en France et en Europe, qui a publié au mois d'avril dernier une étude autour des aspirations des jeunes âgés de 16 à 30 ans.L'étude explore en profondeur les grandes préoccupations d'une génération en quête de sens et d'impact dont le travail, l'équilibre de vie, le management mais aussi... le rapport au numérique.Que pensent les jeunes générations de leur environnement de travail et des outils numériques mis à leur disposition ?Alain vous invite à découvrir le rapport des jeunes avec le numérique et ce qu'ils attendent concrètement de ce dernier dans son podcast hebdomadaire !

Few analysts are more familiar with the politics of both contemporary Turkey and the United States than my old friend , the distinguished Turkish political scientist Soli Ozel. Drawing on his decades of experience in both countries, Ozel, currently a senior fellow at the Institut Montaigne, explains how democratic institutions are similarly being challenged in Trump's America and Erdogan's Turkey. He discusses the imprisonment of Istanbul's popular mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, restrictive speech in American universities, and how economic decline eventually undermines authoritarian regimes. Ozel emphasizes that effective opposition requires both public discontent and compelling leadership alternatives, which Turkey has developed but America currently sorely lacks. Most intriguingly, he suggests that Harvard's legal battle against Trump could be as significant as the 1925 Scopes trial which marked the end of another bout of anti-scientific hysteria in America. 5 Key Takeaways* Populist authoritarianism follows a similar pattern regardless of left/right ideology - controlling judiciary, media, and institutions while claiming to represent "the people" against elites.* Academic freedom in America has declined significantly, with Ozel noting he experienced more classroom freedom in Turkey than at Yale in 2019.* Economic pain combined with a crisis of legitimacy is crucial for challenging authoritarian regimes, but requires credible opposition leadership to succeed.* Istanbul mayor Imamoglu has emerged as a powerful opposition figure in Turkey by appealing across political divides and demonstrating practical governance skills.* Turkey's strategic importance has increased due to its position between war zones (Syria and Ukraine) and Europe's growing need for security partners as American support becomes less certain. Full TranscriptAndrew Keen: Hello, everybody. It's not great news these days that the U.S. Brand has been, so to speak, tarnished as a headline today on CNN. I'm quoting them. CNN, of course, is not Donald Trump's biggest fan. Trump tarnishes the U S brand as a rock of stability in the global economy. I'm not sure if the US was ever really a rock of stability for anything except itself. But we on the show as. As loyal viewers and listeners know, we've been going around the world, taking stock of the US brand, how it's viewed around the word. We did a show last week with Simon Cooper, the Dutch-based Paris writer of the Financial Times, who believes it's time for all Americans to come and live in Europe. And then with Jemima Kelly, another London-based correspondent. And I thought we would broaden. I asked european perspective by visiting my old friend very old friend Soli Ozel. iVve known him for almost forty years he's a. Senior fellow of international relations and turkey at the montane institute he's talking to us from vienna but he is a man who is born and spends a lot of his time thinking about. Turkey, he has an interesting new piece out in the Institute Montaigne. Turkey, a crisis of legitimacy and massive social mobilization in a regional power. I want to talk to Soli later in this conversation about his take on what's happening in Turkey. But first of all, Soli, before we went live, you noted that you first came to America in September 1977. You were educated here, undergraduate, graduate, both at uh, sized in Washington DC and then at UC Berkeley, where you and I studied together at the graduate program. Um, how do you feel almost 50 years, sorry, we're dating ourselves, but how did you feel taking off your political science cap, your analyst cap, how did you feel about what's happening in America as, as a man who invested your life in some ways in the promise of America, and particularly American education universities.Soli Ozel: Yeah, I mean, I, yes, I came to the States or I went to the States in September of 1977. It was a very different America, post Vietnam. And I went through an avant garde college liberal arts college.Andrew Keen: Bennington wasn'tSoli Ozel: Bennington College, and I've spent about 11 years there. And you and I met in 1983 in Berkeley. And then I also taught at American universities. I taught at UC Santa Cruz, Northwestern, SAIS itself, University of Washington, Yale, and had fellowships in different parts. Now, of course, in those years, a lot has changed in the US. The US has changed. In fact, I'm writing a piece now on Christopher Lash. And reading Christopher Lasch work from the 60s and the 1970s, in a way, you wonder why Trumpism has not really emerged a bit earlier than when it did. So, a lot of the... Dynamics that have brought Donald Trump to power, not once, but twice, and in spite of the fact that, you know, he was tried and found guilty and all that. Many of those elements have been there definitely since the 1980s, but Lascch identified especially this divergence between educated people and less educated people between brainies and or the managerial class and the working class in the United States. So, in a way, it looks like the Trumpism's triumph came even a bit late, although there were a couple of attempts perhaps in the early 1990s. One was Pat Buchanan and the other one, Ross Perot, which we forget that Ross Perot got 19% of the vote against in the contest when Bill Clinton. Won the election against George H.W. Bush. So underground, if you will, a lot was happening in the United States.Andrew Keen: All right. And it's interesting you bring up Lash, there's that sort of whole school Lasch Daniel Bell, of course, we had Daniel Bell's son, David Bell, on the show recently. And there's a lot of discussion, as I'm sure you know, about the nativism of Trump, whether it's uniquely American, whether it was somehow inevitable. We've done last week, we did a show about comparing what's happening now in America to what happened after the First World War. Being less analytical, Solé, my question was more an emotional one to you as someone who has built their life around freedom of expression in American universities. You were at Bennington, you were at SICE, you're at UC Berkeley, as you know, you taught at UC Santa Cruz and Yale and many other places. You come in and out of this country giving lectures. How do you personally feel about what's happening?Soli Ozel: Yeah, okay. I mean, in that sense, again, the United States, by the way, I mean the United States has been changing independently of Mr. Trump's presidency. It was much more difficult to be, I mean when I went to college in Bennington College, you really did not bite your tongue when you were going to speak either as a student or a professor. And increasingly, and especially in my last bout at Yale in 2019, I felt that, you know, there were a lot of constraints on what you could say or how you could say it, whether you would call it walkism, political correctness, whatever it was. It was a much, the atmosphere at the university was much more constrained in terms of what transpired in the classroom and that I mean, in Turkey, I had more freedom in terms of how we debated things in class that I felt that...Andrew Keen: That is astonishing. So you had more freedom in...Soli Ozel: As well, you did in Yale in 1990. I'm talking about not the political aspect of things, but how you debate something, okay, whether or not, I mean, there would be lots of views and you could you could present them without insulting anyone, however you presented them was fine, and this is how what the dynamics of the classroom had been when I was a student. So, in that sense, I guess it wasn't just the right that constrained speech, but also the left that constrained the speech, because new values were added or new norms were invented to define what can and cannot be said. And of course, that goes against the grain of what a university education ought to be. I mean, I had colleagues. In major universities who told me that they really were biting their tongue when they were giving their lectures. And that is not my understanding of education or college education and that certainly has not been my experience when I came to the States and for my long education here for 11 years.Andrew Keen: Solit, you and I have a long history of thinking about the Middle East, where back in the early 80s, we TA'd a class on the Arab-Israeli conflict with Yaya Sadowski, who at that time was a very independent thinker. I know he was a close friend of yours. I was always very influenced by his thinking. You're from Izmir, from a Jewish family in Turkey. So you're all too familiar with the complexity of anti-Semitism, Israel, the Middle East, Turkey. What do you personally make of this hysteria now on campus about anti-semitism and throwing out anyone, it seems, at least from the Trump point of view, who are pro-Palestinian? Is this again, I mean, you went back to Christopher Lasch and his thinking on populism and the dangers of populism in America. Or is this something that... Comes out of the peculiarities of American history. We have predicted this 40 years ago when you and I were TAing Sadowski's class on Arab-Israeli conflict at Berkeley.Soli Ozel: The Arab-Israeli conflict always raises passions, if you will. And it's no different. To put it mildly, Salvador, I think. Yeah, it is a bit different now. I mean, of course, my hunch is that anti-Semitism is always present. There is no doubt. And although I followed the developments very closely after October 7. I was not in there physically present. I had some friends, daughters and sons who were students who have reported to me because I'm supposed to know something about those matters. So yeah, antisemitism is there. On the other hand, there is also some exaggeration. We know that a lot of the protesters, for instance, were Jews themselves. But my hunch is that the Trump administration, especially in their attack against elite universities, are using this for political purposes. I'm sure there were other ways of handling this. I don't find it very sincere. And a real problem is being dealt with in a very manipulative political way, I think. Other and moreover So long as there was no violence and I know there were instances of violence that should be punished that I don't have any complaints about, but partially if this is only related to what you say, I'm not sure that this is how a university or relations between students at the university ought to be conducted. If you're not going to be able to say what you think at the university, then what else are you going to say? Are you going be able say it? So this is a much more complicated matter than it is being presented. And as I said, my view or based on what I follow that is happening at colleges, this is being used as an excuse. As somebody I think Peter Beinhart wrote today in the New York Times. He says, No, no, no. It is not really about protecting Jewish students, but it is protecting a certain... Type of Jewish students, and that means it's a political decision, the complaints, legitimate complaints, perhaps, of some students to use those against university administrations or universities themselves that the Trump administration seems to be targeting.Andrew Keen: Yeah, it's interesting you bring up Beinart. He was on the show a year or two ago. I think he notes that, I mean, I don't want to put words into his mouth, but he seems to be suggesting that Jews now have a responsibility almost to speak out, not just obviously about what's happening in the U.S., but certainly about what is happening in Gaza. I'm not sure what you think on.Soli Ozel: He just published a book, he just published the book being Jewish in the US after Gaza or something along those lines. He represents a certain way of thinking about what had happened in Gaza, I mean what had happened to Israel with the attack of Hamas and what had happened afterwards, whether or not he represents the majority. Do you agree with him? I happen to be. I happen to be sympathetic to his views. And especially when you read the book at the beginning, it says, look, he's a believer. Believer meaning he is a practicing Jew. So this is not really a question about his own Jewishness, but how he understands what being a Jew actually means. And from that perspective, putting a lot of accent to the moral aspects of Jewish history and Jewish theological and secular thinking, He is rebelling, if you will, against this way of manipulative use. On the part of some Jewish organizations as well of what had gone on and this is this he sees as a along with others actually he also sees this as a threat to Jewish presence in the United States. You know there is a simultaneous increase in in anti-semitism. And some people argue that this has begun even before October 7. Let us not forget Charlottesville when the crowds that were deemed to be nice people were chanting, Jews will not replace us, and those people are still around. Yeah, a lot of them went to jail.Andrew Keen: Yeah, I mean Trump seemed to have pardoned some of them. And Solly, what do you make of quote-unquote the resistance to Trump in the U.S.? You're a longtime observer of authoritarianism, both personally and in political science terms. One of the headlines the last few days is about the elite universities forming a private collective to resist the Trump administration. Is this for real and is it new? Should we admire the universities or have they been forced into this position?Soli Ozel: Well, I mean, look, you started your talk with the CNN title. Yeah, about the brand, the tarnishing of the U.S. Whatever the CNN stands for. The thing is, there is no question that what is happening today and what has been happening in my judgment over the last two years, particularly on the issue of Gaza, I would not... Exonerate the Biden administration and the way it actually managed its policy vis-a-vis that conflict. There is, of course, a reflection on American policy vis a vis that particular problem and with the Trump administration and 100 days of storm, if you will, around the world, there is a shift in the way people look at the United States. I think it is not a very favorable shift in terms of how people view and understand the United States. Now, that particular thing, the colleges coming together, institutions in the United States where the Americans are very proud of their Madisonian institutions, they believe that that was there. Uh, if you will, insurance policy against an authoritarian drift in their system. Those institutions, both public institutions and private institutions actually proved to be paper tigers. I mean, look at corporations that caved in, look at law firms that arcade that have caved in, Look at Columbia university being, if you will the most egregious example of caving in and plus still not getting the money or not actually stopping the demands that are made on it. So Harvard after equivocating on this finally came up with a response and decided to take the risk of losing massive sums of grants from the federal government. And in fact, it's even suing. The Trump administration for withholding the money that was supposed to go to them. And I guess there is an awakening and the other colleges in order to protect freedom of expression, in order, to protect the independence of higher education in this country, which has been sacrosanct, which is why a lot of people from all around the world, students... Including you and I, right? I mean, that's why we... Yeah, exactly. By the way, it's anywhere between $44 and $50 billion worth of business as well. Then it is there finally coming together, because if you don't hang together, you'll hang separately, is a good American expression that I like. And then trying to defend themselves. And I think this Harvard slope suit, the case of Harvard, is going to be like the Stokes trial of the 1920s on evolution. It's going to be a very similar case, I believe, and it may determine how American democracy goes from now.Andrew Keen: Interesting. You introduced me to Ece Temelkuren, another of your friends from someone who no longer lives in Turkey. She's a very influential Turkish columnist, polemicist. She wrote a famous book, How to Lose a Country. She and you have often compared Turkey. With the rest of the world suggesting that what you're going through in Turkey is the kind of canary in the coal mine for the rest the world. You just came out with a piece, Turkey, a crisis of legitimacy, a massive social mobilization and regional power. I want to get to the details of what's happening in Turkey first. But like Ece, do you see Turkey as the kind of canary and the coalmine that you got into this first? You're kind of leading the narrative of how to address authoritarianism in the 25th century.Soli Ozel: I don't think Turkey was the first one. I think the first one was Hugo Chavez. And then others followed. Turkey certainly is a prominent one. But you know, you and I did other programs and in an earlier era, about 15 years ago. Turkey was actually doing fine. I mean, it was a candidate for membership, still presumably, formally, a candidate for membership in the European Union, but at the time when that thing was alive. Turkey did, I mean, the AKP government or Erdogan as prime minister did a lot of things that were going in the right direction. They certainly demilitarized Turkish politics, but increasingly as they consolidated themselves in power, they moved in a more authoritarian path. And of course, after the coup attempt in 2016 on the 15th of July, that trend towards authoritarianism had been exacerbated and but with the help of a very sui generis if you will unaccountable presidential system we are we find ourselves where we are but The thing is what has been missed out by many abroad was that there was also a very strong resistance that had remained actually unbowing for a long time. And Istanbul, which is, of course, almost a fifth of Turkey's population, 32 percent of its economy, and that's where the pulse of the country actually beats, since 2017 did not vote for Mr Erdogan. I mean, referendum, general election, municipal election. It hasn't, it hasn't. And that is that really, it really represents the future. And today, the disenchantment or discontent has now become much broader, much more broadly based because conservative Anatolia is also now feeling the biting of the economy. And this sense of justice in the country has been severely damaged. And That's what I think explains. The kinds of reaction we had throughout the country to the first arrest and then incarceration of the very popular mayor of Istanbul who is a national figure and who was seen as the main contender for the presidency in the elections that are scheduled to take place in.Andrew Keen: Yeah, and I want to talk more about Turkey's opposition and an interesting New York Times editorial. But before we get there, Soli, you mentioned that the original model was Chavez in Venezuela, of course, who's always considered a leftist populist, whereas Erdogan, Trump, etc., and maybe Netanyahu are considered populists of the right. Is that a useful? Bifurcation in ideological terms or a populist populism that the idea of Chavez being different from Trump because one's on the left and right is really a 20th century mistake or a way of thinking about the 21st century using 20th-century terms.Soli Ozel: Okay, I mean the ideological proclivities do make a difference perhaps, but at the end of the day, what all these populist movements represent is the coming of age or is the coming to power of country elites. Suggests claiming to represent the popular classes whom they say and who are deprived of. Uh, benefits of holding power economically or politically, but once they get established in power and with the authoritarian tilt doesn't really make a distinction in terms of right or wrong. I mean, is Maduro the successor to Chavez a rightist or a leftist? I mean does it really make a difference whether he calls himself a leftists or a rightists? I is unaccountable, is authoritarian. He loses elections and then he claims that he wins these elections and so the ideology that purportedly brought them to power becomes a fig leaf, if you will, justification and maybe the language that they use in order to justify the existing authoritarianism. In that sense, I don't think it makes a difference. Maybe initially it could have made a difference, We have seen populist leaders. Different type of populism perhaps in Latin America. For instance, the Peruvian military was supposed to be very leftist, whereas the Chilean or the Brazilian or the Argentinian or the Uruguayan militaries were very right-wing supported by the church itself. Nicaragua was supposed to be very Leftist, right? They had a revolution, the Sandinista revolution. And look at Daniel Ortega today, does it really matter that he claims himself to be a man of the left? I mean, He runs a family business in Nicaragua. And so all those people who were so very excited about the Nicaraguan Revolution some 45 years ago must be extraordinarily disappointed. I mean, of course, I was also there as a student and wondering what was going to happen in Nicaragua, feeling good about it and all that. And that turned out to be an awful dictatorship itself.Andrew Keen: Yeah, and on this sense, I think you're on the same page as our mutual friend, Moises Naim, who wrote a very influential book a couple of years ago. He's been on the show many times about learning all this from the Latin American playbook because of his experience in Venezuela. He has a front row on this. Solly, is there one? On this, I mean, as I said, you just come out with a piece on the current situation in Turkey and talk a little bit more detail, but is America a few stops behind Turkey? I mean you mentioned that in Turkey now everyone, not just the urban elites in Istanbul, but everyone in the country is beginning to experience the economic decline and consequences of failed policies. A lot of people are predicting the same of Trump's America in the next year or two. Is there just one route in this journey? Is there's just one rail line?Soli Ozel: Like by what the root of established wow a root in the sense of youAndrew Keen: Erdogan or Trump, they come in, they tell lots of lies, they promise a lot of stuff, and then ultimately they can't deliver. Whatever they're promising, the reverse often happens. The people they're supposed to be representing are actually victims of their policies. We're seeing it in America with the consequences of the tariff stuff, of inflation and rise of unemployment and the consequences higher prices. It has something similar. I think of it as the Liz Truss effect, in the sense that the markets ultimately are the truth. And Erdogan, I know, fought the markets and lost a few years ago in Turkey too.Soli Ozel: There was an article last week in Financial Times Weekend Edition, Mr. Trump versus Mr. Market. Trump versus, Mr. Market. Look, first of all, I mean, in establishing a system, the Orban's or Modi's, they all follow, and it's all in Ece's book, of course. You have to control the judiciary, you have to control the media, and then all the institutions. Gradually become under your thumb. And then the way out of it is for first of all, of course, economic problems, economic pain, obviously makes people uncomfortable, but it will have to be combined with the lack of legitimacy, if you will. And that is, I don't think it's right, it's there for in the United States as of yet, but the shock has been so. Robust, if you will, that the reaction to Trump is also rising in a very short period, in a lot shorter period of time than it did in other parts of the world. But economic conditions, the fact that they worsen, is an important matter. But there are other conditions that need to be fulfilled. One of those I would think is absolutely the presence of a political leader that defies the ones in power. And I think when I look at the American scene today, one of the problems that may, one of problems that the political system seems to have, which of course, no matter how economically damaging the Trump administration may be, may not lead to an objection to it. To a loss of power in the midterms to begin with, is lack of leadership in the Democratic Party and lack of a clear perspective that they can share or program that they present to the public at large. Without that, the ones that are in power hold a lot of cards. I mean, it took Turkey about... 18 years after the AKP came to power to finally have potential leaders, and only in 2024 did it become very apparent that now Turkey had more than one leader that could actually challenge Erdogan, and that they also had, if not to support the belief in the public, that they could also run the country. Because if the public does not believe that you are competent enough to manage the affairs of the state or to run the country, they will not vote for you. And leadership truly is an extraordinarily important factor in having democratic change in such systems, what we call electoral authoritarian.Andrew Keen: So what's happened in Turkey in terms of the opposition? The mayor of Istanbul has emerged as a leader. There's an attempt to put him in jail. You talk about the need for an opposition. Is he an ideological figure or just simply younger, more charismatic? More attractive on the media. What do you need and what is missing in the US and what do you have in Turkey? Why are you a couple of chapters ahead on this?Soli Ozel: Well, it was a couple of chapters ahead because we have had the same government or the same ruler for 22 years now.Andrew Keen: And Imamo, I wanted you to pronounce it, Sali, because my Turkish is dreadful. It's worse than most of the other.Soli Ozel: He is the mayor of Istanbul who is now in jail and whose diploma was annulled by the university which actually gave him the diploma and the reason why that is important is if you want to run for president in Turkey, you've got to have a college degree. So that's how it all started. And then he was charged with corruption and terrorism. And he's put in zero. Oh, it's terrorism. There was.Andrew Keen: It's terrorism, they always throw the terrorist bit in, don't they, Simon?Soli Ozel: Yeah, but that dossier is, for the moment, pending. It has not been closed, but it is pending. Anyway, he is young, but his major power is that he can touch all segments of society, conservative, nationalist, leftist. And that's what makes people compare him also with Erdogan who also had a touch of appealing to different segments of the population. But of course, he's secular. He's not ideological, he's a practical man. And Istanbul's population is about anywhere between 16 and 18 million people. It's larger than many countries in Europe. And to manage a city like Istanbul requires really good managerial skills. And Imamoglu managed this in spite of the fact that central government cut its resources, made sure that there was obstruction in every step that he wanted to take, and did not help him a bit. And that still was continuing. Still, he won once. Then there was a repeat election. He won again. And this time around, he one with a landslide, 54% against 44% of his opponent, which had all theAndrew Keen: So the way you're presenting him, is he running as a technocrat or is he running as a celebrity?Soli Ozel: No, he's running as a politician. He's running a politician, he is a popular politician. Maybe you can see tinges of populism in him as well, but... He is what, again, what I think his incarceration having prompted such a wide ranging segments of population really kind of rebelling against this incarceration has to do with the fact that he has resonance in Anatolia. Because he does not scare conservative people. He aspires the youth because he speaks to them directly and he actually made promises to them in Istanbul that he kept, he made their lives easier. And he's been very creative in helping the poorer segments of Istanbul with a variety of programs. And he has done this without really being terribly pushing. So, I mean, I think I sense that the country sees him as its next ruler. And so to attack him was basically tampering with the verdict of the ballot box. That's, I, think how the Turkish public interpreted it. And for good historical reasons, the ballot box is really pretty sacred in Turkey. We usually have upwards of 80% of participation in the election.Andrew Keen: And they're relatively, I mean, not just free, but the results are relatively honest. Yeah, there was an interesting New York Times editorial a couple of days ago. I sent it over. I'm sure you'd read it anyway. Turkey's people are resisting autocracy. They deserve more than silence. I mean from Trump, who has very peculiar relations, he has peculiar relations with everyone, but particularly it seems with Turkey does, in your view, does Turkey needs or the resistance or the mayor of Istanbul this issue, need more support from the US? Would it make any difference?Soli Ozel: Well, first of all, the current American administration didn't seem to particularly care that the arrest and incarceration of the mayor of Istanbul was a bit, to say the least, was awkward and certainly not very legal. I mean, Mario Rubio said, Marco Rubio said that he had concerns. But Mr. Witkoff, in the middle of demonstrations that were shaking the country, Mr. Witkof said it to Tucker Carlson's show that there were very wonderful news coming out of Turkey. And of course, President Trump praised Erdogan several times. They've been on the phone, I think, five times. And he praised Erdogan in front of Bibi Netanyahu, which obviously Bibi Netanyah did not particularly appreciate either. So obviously the American administration likes Mr. Erdogans and will support him. And whatever the Turkish public may or may not want, I don't think is of great interest toAndrew Keen: What about the international dimension, sorry, Putin, the Ukrainian war? How does that play out in terms of the narrative unfolding in Turkey?Soli Ozel: Well, first of all, of course, when the Assad regime fell,Andrew Keen: Right, and as that of course. And Syria of course as well posts that.Soli Ozel: Yeah, I mean, look, Turkey is in the middle of two. War zones, no? Syria was one and the Ukraine is the other. And so when the regime fell and it was brought down by groups that were protected by Turkey in Idlib province of Syria. Everybody argued, and I think not wrongly, that Turkey would have a lot of say over the future of Syria. And I think it will. First of all, Turkey has about 600 miles or 911 kilometer border with Syria and the historical relations.Andrew Keen: And lots of Syrian refugees, of course.Soli Ozel: At the peak, there were about 4 million, I think it's now going down. President Erdogan said that about 200,000 already went back since the overthrow of the regime. And then of course, to the north, there is Ukraine, Russia. And of course this elevates Turkey's strategic importance or geopolitical importance. Another issue that raises Turkish geopolitical importance is, of course, the gradual withdrawal of the United States from providing security to Europe under the umbrella of NATO, North Atlantic Alliance. And as the Europeans are being forced to fetch for themselves for their security, non-EU members of NATO such as Britain, Norway, Turkey, their importance becomes more accentuated as well. And so Turkey and the European Union were in the process of at least somewhat normalizing their relations and their dialog. So what happened domestically, therefore, did not get much of a reaction from the EU, which is supposed to be this paragon of rights and liberties and all that. But But it also left Turkey in a game in an awkward situation, I would think, because things could have gone much, much better. The rapprochement with the European Union could have moved a lot more rapidly, I will think. But geopolitical advantages are there. Obviously, the Americans care a lot for it. And whatever it is that they're negotiating with the Turkish government, we will soon find out. It is a... It is a country that would help stabilize Syria. And that's what President Trump also said, that he would adjudicate between Israel and Turkey over Syria, because these two countries which have been politically at odds, but strategically usually in very good terms. Whether or not the, so to avoid a clash between the two in Syria was important for him. So Turkey's international situation will continue to be important, but I think without the developments domestically, Turkey's position and profile would have been much more solid.Andrew Keen: Comparing US and Turkey, the US military has never participated, at least overtly, in politics, whereas the Turkish military, of course, has historically. Where's the Turkish Military on this? What are they thinking about these imprisonments and the increasing unpopularity of the current regime?Soli Ozel: I think the demilitarization of the Turkish political system was accomplished by the end of the 2000s, so I don't think anybody knows what the military thinks and I'm not sure that anybody really wonders what the army thinks. I think Erdogan has certainly on the top echelons of the military, it has full control. Whether or not the cadets in the Turkish military are lower echelons. Do have political views at odds with that of the government that is not visible. And I don't think the Turkish military should be designing or defining our political system. We have an electorate. We do have a fairly, how shall I say, a public that is fairly attuned to its own rights. And believes certainly in the sanctity of the ballot box, it's been resisting for quite some time and it is defying the authorities and we should let that take its course. I don't think we need the military to do it.Andrew Keen: Finally, Soli, you've been very generous with your time from Vienna. It's late afternoon there. Let's end where we began with this supposed tarnishing of the U.S. Brand. As we noted earlier, you and I have invested our lives, if for better or worse, in the U S brand. We've always been critical, but we've also been believers in this. It's also important in this brand.Soli Ozel: It is an important grant.Andrew Keen: So how do we, and I don't like this term, maybe there is a better term, brands suggest marketing, something not real, but there is something real about the US. How do we re-establish, or I don't know what the word is, a polish rather than tarnish the US brand? What needs to happen in the U.S.Soli Ozel: Well, I think we will first have to see the reinvigoration of institutions in the United States that have been assaulted. That's why I think the Harvard case... Yeah, and I love you.Andrew Keen: Yeah, and I love your idea of comparing it to the Scopes trial of 1926. We probably should do a whole show on that, it's fascinating idea.Soli Ozel: Okay, and then the Democratic Party will have to get its act together. I don't know how long it will take for them to get their act together, they have not been very...Andrew Keen: Clever. But some Democrats will say, well, there's more than one party. The Sanders AOC wing has done its job. People like Gavin Newsom are trying to do their job. I mean, you can't have an official party. There's gonna be a debate. There already is a debate within the party between the left and the right.Soli Ozel: The thing is, debates can be endless, and I don't think there is time for that. First of all, I think the decentralized nature of American governance is also an advantage. And I think that the assault has been so forceful that everybody has woken up to it. It could have been the frog method, you know, that is... Yeah, the boiling in the hot water. So, already people have begun to jump and that is good, that's a sign of vitality. And therefore, I think in due time, things will be evolving in a different direction. But, for populist or authoritarian inclined populist regimes, control of the institutions is very important, so you've got to be alert. And what I discovered, studying these things and looking at the practice. Executive power is a lot of power. So separation of powers is fine and good, but the thing is executive power is really very... Prominent and the legislature, especially in this particular case with the Republican party that has become the instrument of President Trump, and the judiciary which resists but its power is limited. I mean, what do you do when a court decision is not abided by the administration? You cannot send the police to the White House.Andrew Keen: Well, you might have to, that's why I asked the military question.Soli Ozel: Well, it's not up to the military to do this, somehow it will have to be resolved within the civilian democratic system, no matter where. Yes, the decks are stacked against the opposition in most of these cases, but then you'll have to fight. And I think a lot hinges on how corporations are going to react from now on. They have bet on Trump, and I suppose that many of them are regretting because of the tariffs. I just was at a conference, and there was a German business person who said that he has a factory in Germany and a factory in Ohio. And he told me that within three months there would not be any of the goods that he produces on the shelves because of tariffs. Once this begins to hit, then you may see a different dynamic in the country as well, unless the administration takes a U-turn. But if it does take a U turn, it will also have weakened itself, both domestically and internationally.Andrew Keen: Yeah, certainly, to put it mildly. Well, as we noted, Soli, what's real is economics. The rest is perhaps froth or lies or propaganda. Soli Ozel: It's a necessary condition. Without that deteriorating, you really cannot get things on values done.Andrew Keen: In other words, Marx was right, but perhaps in a slightly different context. We're not going to get into Marx today, Soli, we're going to get you back on the show. Cause I love that comparison with the current, the Harvard Trump legal thing, comparing it to Scopes. I think I hadn't thought of that. It's a very interesting idea. Keep well, keep safe, keep telling the truth from Central Europe and Turkey. As always, Solia, it's an honor to have you on the show. Thank you so much.Soli Ozel: Thank you, Andrew, for having me.Keen On America is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit keenon.substack.com/subscribe

After the recent visit of the EU's College of Commissioners to New Delhi, CER's Anunita Chandrasekar speaks to Tara Varma, who is currently a visiting fellow at Brookings Institution's Centre for the US and Europe, and Amaia Sánchez-Cacicedo, senior fellow covering Asia and India at Institut Montaigne, to consider the trajectory of EU-India relations. Produced by Octavia Hughes

Avec 1,45 milliard d'habitants, l'Inde est désormais devant la Chine le pays le plus peuplé de la planète et, à la différence de celle-ci, continue de voir sa population augmenter. L'Inde est, par ailleurs, la cinquième puissance économique mondiale. Narendra Modi, le très autoritaire et nationaliste dirigeant indien s'est fixé comme objectif de faire de l'Inde la 3è économie mondiale à l'horizon 2030 et d'en faire un pays développé d'ici à 2047, qui correspondra au centenaire de l'indépendance du pays.Le 14 février 2025, Narendra Modi rencontrait Donald Trump à Washington. Deux semaines plus tard, Ursula von der Leyen était reçue à New Delhi. Longtemps l'Inde s'est méfiée de l'Union européenne. New Delhi préférait négocier en bilatéral avec Paris ou Berlin, plutôt qu'avec Bruxelles. Mais les temps ont changé pour le géant asiatique comme pour l'Europe, chamboulée par le retour de Donald Trump à la Maison Blanche. Les deux blocs partagent la même faiblesse, leur dépendance à la Chine. La présidente de la Commission européenne s'est engagée avec le Premier ministre indien à finaliser un accord de libre-échange d'ici à la fin de l'année et à diversifier la coopération en l'ouvrant sur la sécurité et la défense. La Commission espère trouver dans le marché indien de nouveaux débouchés, notamment pour les voitures, les produits agricoles, le vin et les spiritueux. Une ère nouvelle est-elle en train de s'enclencher entre l'Inde et l'UE alors que l'Europe est le premier partenaire commercial de l'Inde devant les États-Unis et la Chine ? L'Inde reste un pays ultra-protectionniste. Le contexte international donnera-t-il le coup de pouce nécessaire pour dépasser les blocages ?Invités :  Christophe Jaffrelot, expert associé à l'Institut Montaigne. Directeur de recherche au CNRS et au CERI de Sciences Po. Également professeur de politique et sociologie indiennes au King's India Institute de Londres. Co-auteur de « Les défis du Make in India » et « Les dynamiques régionales contrastées de l'Inde ». Institut Montaigne. Jean-Luc Racine, directeur de recherche émérite au CNRS. Chercheur senior à Asia Centre.

U.S. President Donald Trump's decision this week to pause military funding for Ukraine and to align his government with Russia further widens the cleavage between the United States and Europe — effectively breaking what has long been known as "the West." At first glance, many of China's Western critics will see this as welcome news, but it also means that Beijing must navigate in a much more fragmented and turbulent geopolitical environment. The Paris-based global affairs think tank Institut Montaigne recently published a detailed forecast of the challenges that lie ahead for China over the coming decade. The report's authors, François Godement and Pierre Pinhas, join Eric & Cobus to discuss four scenarios they mapped out that could shape China's trajectory in this new era. SHOW NOTES: Read the Institut Montaigne Report: China 2035: The Chances of Success JOIN THE DISCUSSION: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander  Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social FOLLOW CGSP IN FRENCH AND ARABIC: Français: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine Arabic: عربي: www.alsin-alsharqalawsat.com | @SinSharqAwsat JOIN US ON PATREON! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth

U.S. President Donald Trump's decision this week to pause military funding for Ukraine and to align his government with Russia further widens the cleavage between the United States and Europe — effectively breaking what has long been known as "the West." At first glance, many of China's Western critics will see this as welcome news, but it also means that Beijing must navigate in a much more fragmented and turbulent geopolitical environment. The Paris-based global affairs think tank Institut Montaigne recently published a detailed forecast of the challenges that lie ahead for China over the coming decade. The report's authors, François Godement and Pierre Pinhas, join Eric & Cobus to discuss four scenarios they mapped out that could shape China's trajectory in this new era. SHOW NOTES: Read the Institut Montaigne Report: China 2035: The Chances of Success JOIN THE DISCUSSION: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander  Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social FOLLOW CGSP IN FRENCH AND ARABIC: Français: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine Arabic: عربي: www.alsin-alsharqalawsat.com | @SinSharqAwsat JOIN US ON PATREON! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth

L'émission 28 minutes du 17/01/2025 Ce vendredi, Renaud Dély décrypte l’actualité avec le regard de nos clubistes : l'historien Pascal Blanchard, Blanche Leridon, directrice éditoriale de l’Institut Montaigne, l'essayiste Noémie Halioua et la dessinatrice de presse Louison.    L’immigration sera-t-elle le seul recours pour nous sauver du “baby crash” ? Le taux de natalité en France n'a jamais été aussi faible depuis plus d'un siècle. Selon le bilan annuel publié par l'Insee, seulement 663 000 bébés sont nés dans l'Hexagone en 2024 — c'est 21 % de moins qu'en 2010, l'année du dernier pic de naissances en France. Comme ses voisins européens, la population française n'augmente quasiment plus et vieillit. Il y a un an, Emmanuel Macron évoquait la nécessité d’un "réarmement démographique". Pour éviter le “baby crash”, la France va-t-elle devoir se tourner vers l’immigration pour se rajeunir et se régénérer ?  François Bayrou a-t-il provoqué le divorce à gauche entre PS et LFI ? Jeudi 16 janvier, le gouvernement Bayrou a échappé une première fois à la censure après la motion déposée par La France insoumise. Alors que les écologistes et les communistes avaient déjà annoncé leur intention de la voter, les socialistes ont, eux, laissé planer le doute jusqu'au jour du vote. Le Premier ministre a longuement négocié avec le PS, qui cherchait à obtenir des garanties. La remise en chantier de la réforme des retraites avec les partenaires sociaux et le recul sur la suppression de 4 000 postes de fonctionnaires semblent avoir convaincu le parti. En ne votant pas la censure, le chef du PS, Olivier Faure, a affirmé à la tribune de l'Assemblée nationale ne pas avoir “la négociation honteuse” en choisissant de ne pas pratiquer "la politique du pire”. “Les socialistes sont attendus au tournant. Ils doivent se rappeler la loyauté aux idées et surtout aux électeurs qui leur permettent d’être là aujourd’hui”, lui a rétorqué l'Insoumise Clémence Guetté.  Pourriez-vous vivre quotidiennement sous 50°C ? Selon de nombreux spécialistes de la question climatique, les pics de chaleur de cette intensité devraient se multiplier, d'ici à 2050. Pour sensibiliser la population à la menace que représente le réchauffement climatique, le chercheur et explorateur Christian Clot propose au public de l’expérimenter avec un projet unique au monde : le “Climate Sense”, un camion qui simule les conditions extrêmes d'une canicule. Selon le scientifique, le changement “ne viendra que par une expérience sensorielle vécue”.  Les incendies qui ont ravagé Los Angeles et fait 25 morts donnent lieu à une violente passe d’armes politique entre Républicains et Démocrates aux États-Unis. Donald Trump a jugé “incompétent” le gouverneur de Californie, Gavin Newsom, leader démocrate qui pourrait prendre la relève du parti en 2028. Selon le futur président, l'argent public aurait été dépensé dans les énergies renouvelables, au détriment des réserves d’eau de la ville. Les pompiers de la Cité des anges se sont retrouvés très vite à sec face aux feux. C'est le duel de la semaine de Frédéric Says. Après avoir annoncé la fin de la modération sur les réseaux sociaux Instagram et Facebook, Mark Zuckerberg a suscité une nouvelle polémique. Invité dans le podcast de Joe Rogan, fervent partisan de Donald Trump, le patron de Meta a admis regretter le manque d'“énergie masculine” dans le monde du travail et envier une culture qui “célèbre l'agressivité”. C'est le point com de Paola Puerari. Une femme de 53 ans s'est fait extorquer plus de 800 000 euros par un arnaqueur sur internet. Pendant plusieurs mois, ce "brouteur" a discuté avec elle en se faisant passer pour… Brad Pitt ! C’est l’histoire de la semaine de Claude Askolovitch. Enfin, ne manquez pas la Une internationale sur l'accord d'un cessez-le-feu à Gaza, les photos de la semaine soigneusement sélectionnées par nos invités, ainsi que la Dérive des continents de Benoît Forgeard !  28 minutes est le magazine d’actualité d’ARTE, présenté par Élisabeth Quin du lundi au jeudi à 20h05. Renaud Dély est aux commandes de l'émission le vendredi et le samedi. Ce podcast est coproduit par KM et ARTE Radio.  Enregistrement 17 janvier 2025 Présentation Renaud Dély Production KM, ARTE Radio

So what's it to be in the Middle East in 2025: Mad Max style anarchy or a "Pax Hebraica" orchestrated from Israel? According to regional expert Soli Ozel, the Mad Max scenario is more likely - although, as he notes, many of us oversimplify the contemporary Middle East into false binaries such as the Sunni vs Shiite conflict or Iran vs the Arab world. That said, Ozel warns, the mostly cataclysmic 2024 history of the the region doesn't bode well for 2025. Especially given America's central role in Middle East and its unwillingness to confront the region's central tragedy - the problem of Palestine. Soli Özel is professor of International Relations at Kadir Has University in Istanbul, a fellow at the Robert Bosch Academy, a senior fellow at the Institut Montaigne as a senior fellow and a columnist for the Turkish daily Habertürk. Since 2002, Soli Özel has also contributed to Project Syndicate on different occasions, commenting on Turkish politics. He served on the board of directors of International Alert and is currently a member of the European Council on Foreign Relations. He was also an advisor to the Chairman the Turkish Industrialists' and Businessmen's Association (TÜSIAD) on foreign policy issues. He has guest lectured at Harvard, Tufts, and other US universities and has taught at UC Santa Cruz, John Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), the University of Washington, Northwestern University, the Hebrew University, Boğaziçi University and Bilgi University (Istanbul). He also spent time as a fellow of St. Anthony's College, Oxford and was a visiting senior scholar at the EU Institute for Security Studies in Paris. He was a Fisher Family Fellow of the “Future of Diplomacy Program” at the Belfer Center of the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University. In 2013, he was a Keyman fellow and a visiting lecturer at Northwestern University. Soli Özel regularly contributes to the German Marshall Fund's web site's “ON Turkey” series. His work has been printed in different publications in Turkey and abroad, including The International Spectator, Internationale Politik and the Journal of Democracy. He also occupied the position of Editor-in-Chief at Foreign Policy Turkish edition. Soli Özel holds a Bachelor in Economics from Bennington College and a Master in International Relations from Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies.Named as one of the "100 most connected men" by GQ magazine, Andrew Keen is amongst the world's best known broadcasters and commentators. In addition to presenting KEEN ON, he is the host of the long-running How To Fix Democracy show. He is also the author of four prescient books about digital technology: CULT OF THE AMATEUR, DIGITAL VERTIGO, THE INTERNET IS NOT THE ANSWER and HOW TO FIX THE FUTURE. Andrew lives in San Francisco, is married to Cassandra Knight, Google's VP of Litigation & Discovery, and has two grown children. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit keenon.substack.com/subscribe

Max and Donatienne recap the major stories that shaped 2024 and look ahead at the coming year. They are then joined by Georgina Wright, Senior Fellow and Deputy Director for International Studies at Institut Montaigne, for a discussion on the political turmoil currently roiling France. Learn more:   Russian Roulette | CSIS Podcasts 

Chaque soir dans BFM Radio Soir, Zacharie Legros reçoit les invités qui font l'actualité.

Avec : Lisa Thomas-Darbois, directrice des études à l'Institut Montaigne. - Tous les matins à 8h10, le parti pris argumenté d'un invité sur un sujet d'actualité, avec les témoignages et les réactions des auditeurs de RMC en direct au 3216.

The 2024 edition of the AIG Global Trade Series explores the theme of ‘Back to the Future: A New Era of Managed Trade?' Four years on from Britain's departure from the EU, politicians on both sides of the Channel continue to grapple with its consequences. In recent months, the election of the Labour government in the UK and the reelection of Ursula Von der Leyen as President of the European Commission have opened a new more constructive chapter in the complex process of negotiation over the UK's relationship with its neighbours.  For the UK, mitigating Brexit's negative effects on trade and business remains a central goal in the reset of relations. For the Commission, trade issues are increasingly wrapped up in a broad concern, vividly captured in the recent Draghi report, about the EU's competitiveness and its long-term economic growth.  What are the political and economic parameters within which the UK and EU are working on a reset?  Where are the red lines and where the areas of Win-Win? And can a new deal help address the growth challenge on both sides of the Channel?  Panellists:        Georgina Wright, Senior Fellow and Deputy Director for International Studies, Institut Montaigne  Dr Nicolai von Ondarza, Head of Research Division, EU/Europe, German Institute for International and Security Affairs (Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik, SWP)  David Henig, Director, UK Trade Policy Project, European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE) Moderator:      Rem Korteweg, Senior Research Fellow, Clingendael Institute  This podcast episode was recorded on 26 September 2024.  Related content from GTS Contributors:  Paper | Extraterritoriality: a Blind Spot in the EU's Economic Security Strategy | Institut Montaigne  Paper |The UK and the EU: New Opportunities, Old Obstacles | SWP  Report | Negotiating Uncertainty in UK-EU Relations: Past, Present, and Future | ECIPE ___  The Global Trade Series is a collaboration between AIG and the following international organisations with leading expertise on global trade: the Aspen Institute Germany; CEBRI - the Brazilian Center for International Relations; Chatham House (UK); CITD - the Center on Inclusive Trade and Development at Georgetown University Law Center (US); the Clingendael Institute (The Netherlands); Elcano Royal Institute (Spain); ERIA – the Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (Indonesia); ISPI - the Italian Institute for International Political Studies; the Jacques Delors Institute (France); RIETI - the Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (Japan); and the St. Gallen Endowment for Prosperity through Trade (Switzerland).  The views and opinions expressed in this podcast series are those of the speakers and do not reflect the views, policy or position of American International Group Inc, or its subsidiaries or affiliates (AIG). Any content provided by the speakers in this podcase series is their opinion, and is not intended to malign any religion, ethnic group, club, organization, company, individual or group of individuals or anyone or anything. AIG makes no warranty or representations as to the accuracy, completeness, correctness or validity of any information provided during this podcast series, and AIG will not be liable for any errors, inaccuracies or omissions in the information provided during this podcast series or any damages, losses, liabilities, injuries resulting from or arising from the Podcast including your use of the Podcast.

Candidates for France's snap election defended their economic programmes at the employer association Medef, though business leaders remain skeptical about how their spending plans will be funded. Meanwhile, the think tank Institut Montaigne put a price tag on different parties' key election promises from the ruling Ensemble's tax-free bonuses to the far right National Rally's VAT cut on energy and fuel to the left-wing New Popular Front's freeze on prices of essential goods. 

Bronwen Maddox is joined this week by Mujtaba Rahman, the Managing Director Europe of the Eurasia Group and Georgina Wright, a Senior Fellow with Institut Montaigne. Joining them all is journalist John Kampfner, the former head of Chatham House's UK in the World Programme. Read our latest: Is Moldova a new battleground in Russia's war? Has David Cameron's return revitalised UK policy in the Middle East? Britain must rearm to strengthen NATO and meet threats beyond Russia and terrorism Presented by Bronwen Maddox. Produced by John Pollock. Listen to The Climate Briefing podcast

Ai bị thiệt thòi hơn cả từ vụ chi nhánh tập đoàn địa ốc Evergrande tại Hồng Kông bị « giải thể » ? Đây là hồi kết của mọi nỗ lực thu hút đầu tư ngoại quốc vào Trung Quốc hay là bước ngoặt trong chính sách kinh tế của Bắc Kinh ?  Ngày 29/01/2024 một tòa án Hồng Kông ra phán quyết « giải thể » Evergrande. Tại Luân Đôn, tờ Financial Times báo trước, « sự sụp đổ của tập đoàn địa ốc mang nợ nhiều nhất trên thế giới sẽ mở ra một giai đoạn đầy sóng gió » cho Trung Quốc. Báo tài chính Mỹ The Wall Street Journal nói đến « dấu chấm hết sau một giai đoạn hấp hối đã kéo dài » từ một tập đoàn bị phá sản với « những tác động làm rung chuyển nền kinh tế thứ hai toàn cầu ». Nhưng đây chỉ là quân « đô mi nô đầu tiên bị đổ » hay là lớp sóng ngầm ?Trang mạng kinh tế Axios cũng của Mỹ xem vụ tài sản của Evergrande bị thanh lý là dấu hiệu « kinh tế Trung Quốc đang xấu đi », « thị trường bất động sản nước này lún sâu thêm vào khủng hoảng và sẽ tác động đến những lĩnh vực khác của nền kinh tế Trung Quốc ». Một nhà quan sát Trung Quốc thuộc viện nghiên cứu Mars Data nói đến một « vố đau giáng xuống Trung Quốc » vào lúc Bắc Kinh cố gắng tổ chức lại giảm bớt nạn « chi tiêu vô độ ».Từ biểu tượng của thành công đến biểu tượng của khủng hoảngCách nay gần 30 năm, ông vua địa ốc Hứa Gia Ấn lập ra Evergrande, trụ sở tại Quảng Châu- Hoa Lục. Công ty này nhanh chóng trở thành một biểu tượng của phép lạ kinh tế Trung Quốc. Hiện diện tại hơn 170 thành phố, Evergrande tham gia sàn chứng khoán Hồng Kông, rồi trở thành một trong những nhà môi giới bất động sản lớn nhất thế giới. Sức mạnh đó cho phép Evergrande -còn được biết đến dưới cái tên Trung Quốc là tập đoàn Hằng Đại -Hengda, mạo hiểm trong nhiều lĩnh vực khác từ bảo hiểm nhà đất, đến y tế, công nghiệp xe điện …2021, gió đã xoay chiều. Theo báo cáo được công bố tháng 6/2023 Evergrande mang nợ 328 tỷ đô la -tương đương với gần 3 % GDP của Trung Quốc. Evergrande đã trở thành biểu tượng của khủng hoảng địa ốc vô tiền khoáng hậu mà đã hơn hai năm qua, Bắc Kinh vẫn chưa có liều thuốc trị liệu."Không có chuyện Evergrande bị khai tử"Trả lời RFI Việt ngữ, nhà báo Pierre Antoine Donnet, một cây bút của tờ báo mạng chuyên về châu Á Asialyst trước hết giải thích về phán quyết của tòa án Hồng Kông hôm 29/01/2024 và ông nhấn mạnh vì sao « thủ tục thanh lý tài sản của Evergrande » sẽ kéo dài cho dù chỉ liên quan đến phần tài sản thuộc sở hữu của chi nhánh ở Hồng Kông. Đồng thời Pierre Antoine Donnet hoàn toàn loại trừ khả năng vì một phán quyết của Hồng Kông mà Evergrande sẽ « bị xóa sổ ». Pierre Antoine Donnet : « Một tòa án Hồng Kông có thẩm quyền tuyên bố giải thể Evergrande do tập đoàn môi giới địa ốc này có chi nhánh ở Hồng Kông. Trên nguyên tắc và bình thường ra, điều đó có nghĩa là tài sản của Evergrande sẽ bị chia nhỏ ra và để bán lại cho ngân hàng, cho các nhà đầu tư hay doanh nghiệp, các quỹ tư nhân nào đó… Trong mọi trường hợp thủ tục sẽ kéo dài bởi vấn đề ở đây là một tòa án Hồng Kông căn cứ vào luật của Hồng Kông để giải thể Evergrande. Nhưng luật doanh nghiệp Hồng Kông rất khác so với của Hoa Lục. Hơn 90 % tài sản của Evergrande là ở Hoa Lục. Chỉ có các tòa án ở Hoa Lục mới có đủ thẩm quyền và có tiếng nói sau cùng về số phận Evergrande. Như đã biết, luật pháp Trung Quốc trong tay Đảng Cộng Sản nước này. Chỉ có Đảng mới có có thể quyết định có giải thể Evergrande hay không và nếu có thì khi nào. Lúc này Trung Quốc đang sửa soạn đón Tết âm lịch, chẳng mấy ai quyết định bất cứ điều gì về Evergrande trong lúc này. Nhưng về lâu dài, thủ tục thanh lý tài sản của chi nhánh Evergrande tại Hồng Kông kéo dài bao lâu ? Có nhiều quan điểm khác nhau. Phần lớn đều cho rằng hồ sơ này sẽ kéo dài nhiều tháng và sẽ rất phức tạp vì đừng quên rằng, Evergrande không chỉ hoạt động trong ngành bất động sản, mà còn hiện diện trong nhiều lĩnh vực khác nữa (như trong lĩnh vực cung cấp nước khoáng,sản xuất thực phẩm… bảo hiểm nhà ở … ). Trong mọi trường hợp những hệ quả kèm theo về vụ Evergrande sẽ rất lớn cả về chính trị lẫn kinh tế và xã hội. Tác động về mặt xã hội khi mà hàng trăm ngàn căn hộ đang xây và bị bỏ dở, khi mà hàng trăm triệu căn hộ khác đã xây xong nhưng lại hoàn toàn bị bỏ trống, khi mà chủ nhân của những căn hộ đó – phần lớn là người cao tuổi mang tiền tiết kiệm ra để đầu tư, nhưng giờ đây lại mất hết tất cả : họ không được giao nhà và cũng không thể lấy lại vốn. Đầu tư, mùa nhà là cách để người dân Trung Quốc tiết kiệm cho tuổi về hưu ».   Từ tháng 10/2021 « 90 % trị giá chứng khoán của Evergrande đã bốc hơi ». Trong bài tham luận dành cho viện nghiên cứu Institut Montaigne (12/10/2021) chuyên gia về ngân hàng và đã có nhiều năm làm việc tại châu Á và Trung Quốc, Philippe Aguignier giảng dậy tại trường Khoa Học Chính Trị Sciences Po. và Viện Văn Hoa và Ngôn Ngữ Đông Phương đã xác định rõ danh sách những « nạn nhân » từ hiện tượng vỡ bong bóng địa ốc tại mà Evergrande là một trường hợp điển hình.Philippe Aguignier lo ngại cho số phận của gần 70 ngàn nhân viên của đại tập đoàn này và kèm theo đó là của các đối tác cung cấp nguyên và nhiên liệu, dịch vụ cho Evergrande, bởi vì các chủ nợ của Evergrande, nếu là các ngân hàng hay các quỹ đầu tư, các hãng bảo hiểm thì đều ít nhiều được Nhà nước yểm trợ. "Khả năng rất thấp để được bồi hoàn" Câu hỏi lớn ở đây là liệu rằng hàng trăm triệu người đã đầu tư để mua nhà có hy vọng được hoàn lại vốn hay không ? Nhà họ đã mua có còn trị giá gì nữa hay không ? Pierre Antoine Donnet không mấy lạc quan :  Pierre Antoine Donnet : « Ở Trung Quốc có những cơ quan phụ trách thu thập, xử lý đơn kiện các doanh nghiệp theo hướng gọi là để bảo vệ người đầu tư. Nhưng hệ thống hành chính, tư pháp ở đây do chính quyền kiểm soát và cầm chắc là hàng triệu người mua nhà sẽ không bao giờ được hoàn trả lại vốn. Hệ quả kèm theo là công luận Trung Quốc lại càng mất niềm tin vào guồng máy chính trị ngay trên đất nước họ, càng mất lòng tin vào chính các doanh nghiệp của Trung Quốc. Tổng nợ của Evergrande và cũng là con số mà người ta được biết là 328 tỷ đô la ». Bài học nào từ vụ Evergrande và khủng hoảng bất động sản Trung Quốc ? Cũng ông Donnet, nhà báo từng là thông tín viên thường trực tại Bắc Kinh của hãng thông tấn AFP phân tích :Pierre Antoine Donnet : « Ở Trung Quốc bên cạnh hiện tượng người ta đã rất hồ hởi đầu tư, kèm theo đó là sự tự tin quá trớn. Có nghĩa là ở đây nhiều người tin rằng, Trung Quốc với một tỷ lệ tăng trưởng hơn 10 % một năm trong thời gian rất dài thì chuyện gì cũng có thể làm được. Phép lại kinh tế đó đã khiến người ta chóng mặt và nhất là trong lĩnh vực địa ốc … cho dù đây không là một trường hợp cá biệt. Trung Quốc đã có biết bao nhiêu dự án khổng lồ : nào là xa lộ rộng thênh thang, những sân bay càng lúc càng đồ sộ. Nhưng không ít những công trình đó hiện nay vô dụng. Thậm chí do quá cồng kềnh, chúng đã bị phá hủy … Trong những điều kiện đó, hình ảnh của Trung Quốc trong mắt công luận quốc tế đã xấu đi và giới đầu tư ngoại quốc bắt đầu hoài nghi về thực chất của sức mạnh kinh tế Trung Quốc. Số này đang tính đến những nước cờ tiếp theo. Họ tự hỏi Trung Quốc có còn là điểm an toàn xứng đáng để bỏ vốn vào đây kinh doanh nữa hay không. Chỉ riêng năm 2023 hàng ngàn nhà đầu tư nước ngoài đã rời khỏi Hoa Lục. Tại châu Á, thì Ấn Độ, Malaysia, Việt Nam và Singapore là những bãi đáp ». Nhà đất, Bắc Kinh đi từ thái cực này đến thái cực khácVề những nguyên nhân đã thổi lên quả bóng địa ốc tại Trung Quốc, chuyên gia về tài chính Philippe Aguignier nhắc lại : Bắc Kinh chủ tương khuyến khích đầu tư và tiết kiệm hơn là tiêu thụ. Đồng thời đối với tất cả người dân tại đây, mua nhà là cách duy nhất để dành tiền và kiếm lãi.Vấn đề đặt ra là giờ đây Trung Quốc đứng trước một nghịch lý : nhu cầu cung cấp nhà ở cho hơn 1,5 tỷ dân vẫn tồn tại. Thanh niên không có phương tiện mua nhà, ra ở riêng mà vẫn phải sống chung với bố mẹ. Bên cạnh đó là hàng « triệu căn hộ đang bị bỏ trống ». Từ 15 năm nay các chuyên gia Trung Quốc đã kêu gọi chính quyền điều chỉnh lại hiện tượng bất cân đối đó. Do vậy, theo giới quan sát quyết định của ông Tập Cận Bình làm hạ nhiệt thị trường bất động sản tại Trung Quốc là cần thiết. Có điều, luật cung cầu và thể thức vận hành của một nền kinh tế không phải lúc nào « chiều theo ý muốn của lãnh đạo ».Nhà Trung Quốc học, François Godement viện Institut Montaigne cho rằng trong trường hợp cụ thể của tập đoàn Evergrande, khi điều chỉnh lại thị trường nhà đất, Bắc Kinh đã « cân nhắc kỹ » những tác động về kinh tế và xã hội trước khi quyết định « để cho quả bóng địa ốc xì hơi ».Thị trường nhà đất Trung Quốc « mất hết tự do »Theo chuyên gia nước Pháp này trên thị trường bất động sản, Bắc Kinh đã chuyển từ « một thái cực này sang một thái cực khác » : Cho đến rất gần đây, Trung Quốc hầu như không đánh thuế nhà đất, nhưng rồi trong một sớm một chiều Nhà nước đã ban hành một loạt chỉ thị như là ấn định giá trần khi cho thuê nhà tại một số các thành phố lớn … Những quyết định sắp tới có thể là « mầm mống báo trước chính sách kinh tế của Bắc Kinh trong tương laiFrançois Godement cho rằng sẽ khá thú vị chờ xem quyết định của Bắc Kinh về số phận Evergrande và nhất là sẽ bồi thường cho các nạn nhân của tập đoàn này như thế nào : chính phủ sẽ chú trọng hơn đến các nhà đầu tư nội địa, đến các đối tác tài chính ở hải ngoại hay đến những nhà đầu tư cò con ? Những quyết định sắp tới có thể là « mầm mống báo trước chính sách kinh tế của Bắc Kinh trong tương lai, theo hướng Trung Quốc giảm mức độ lệ thuộc vào lĩnh vực tài chính (…)  hay vào một số lĩnh công nghệ thuật nơi mà các nhà đầu tư nước ngoài chiếm một vị trí quan trọng, để chú trọng hơn vào những vấn đề cơ bản thiết thực với xã hội ».Hiệu quả của chính sách đó đến đâu, đấy lại là chuyện khác. Trước mắt cố vấn về Trung Quốc của viện nghiên cứu Institut Montaigne, Paris, nhà Trung Quốc học François Godement, thận trọng vì ông không chắc xoay trục chính sách kinh tế theo hướng đó sẽ cho phép « về lâu dài, bảo đảm tăng trưởng cho quốc gia này ».

Troisième victoire d'affilée pour le Parti Démocrate Progressiste à Taiwan. Son candidat Lai Ching-te l'a emporté, le 13 janvier 2024, sur ses deux rivaux et malgré les fortes objections chinoises. Le successeur de Tsai Ing-wen au pouvoir, depuis 2016, prendra ses fonctions au mois de mai 2024. Son score de 40 % à la présidentielle est en net recul par rapport à celui de la présidente sortante qui avait obtenu 52 % en 2020 pour son second mandat. Le DPP perd, par ailleurs, la majorité au Parlement. Qu'est-ce que cette victoire présidentielle et un Parlement divisé vont signifier pour les relations de Taiwan avec la Chine et les États-Unis ? Regard sur le début d'un nouveau cycle de quatre ans pour le détroit de Taiwan alors que, depuis 2019, la pression militaire chinoise contre l'île atteint des proportions inédites.   Invités :  Stéphane Corcuff, maître de conférence en politique du monde chinois contemporain à Sciences Po Lyon. Chercheur au Centre d'études linguistiques de l'Université Jean-Moulin Lyon 3. « Pékin Taiwan la guerre des deux Chines 1661-2022 » numéro 911 d'Historia Magazine et « Une tablette aux ancêtres »,  Asiathèque     Matthieu Duchatel, directeur des Études internationales de l'Institut Montaigne. Spécialiste de la sécurité économique et des questions stratégiques en Asie. « La politique taiwanaise de la Chine à l'horizon 2028 », Institut Montaigne. 

What encourages voters to support populist right parties? What has made Marine Le Pen's discourse so powerful, especially with regards to its female vote share? What policies do radical right parties generally look for at the European Union level? Could support for the radical left and the radical right overlap? In this episode, Nonna Mayer, a specialist in radical ideologies and populism, answers these and many other questions regarding the rise of right-wing populism in France and Europe at large. Nonna Mayer is an emeritus researcher at France's Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS). She is also a researcher at Sciences Po's Centre for European Studies and Comparative Politics, and was president of the French Association of Political Science between 2005 and 2016. She focuses on the rise of the radical right in Europe and France, issues of antisemitism and racism, and the intercultural interplay between minorities and majority, and amongst minority groups.  Additional resources: Mayer, N. (2022). Undermining Democracy: Marine Le Pen and Eric Zemmour's Populist Politics. Institut Montaigne.    Durovic, A. & Mayer, N. (2022). Wind of change? The reconfiguration of gender gaps in the 2022 French presidential election. The reconfiguration of gender gaps in the 2022 French presidential election. Revue française de science politique (72), p. 463-484.   Amengay, A., Durovic, A. & Mayer, N. (2017). The impact of gender on the Marine Le Pen vote. Revue française de science politique (67), p. 1067-1087.  Recorded on 15th September 2023 Conversations with Sergei GURIEV  is a podcast by Sciences Po. Hélène NAUDET supervised the production of this series, with the help of Blanca GONZALEZ MARTINEZ, Sciences Po Master student in Political Science. The Sciences Po audio department produced and mixed it.Hosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

提醒您，盡速前往五星級長榮航空官網購買機票。10/22起至11/26止，於長榮航空官網購買2023線上旅展機票，除享有全航線最低72折起優惠外，還可再抽一年全球飛到飽機票。https://go.fstry.me/46YED8c —— 以上為 Firstory DAI 動態廣告 —— ------------------------------- 10/23~10/31 招募訂閱制 創始VIP會員! 創始優惠只有一次 把握機會～ ------------------------------- 通勤學英語VIP訂閱方案：https://open.firstory.me/join/15minstoday VIP會員文章主題許願表單：https://forms.gle/xyHoPydBr6LLFL9q8 ------------------------------- 15Mins.Today 相關連結 ------------------------------- 歡迎針對這一集留言你的想法： 留言連結 主題投稿/意見回覆 : ask15mins@gmail.com 「社會人核心英語」有聲書課程連結：https://15minsengcafe.pse.is/554esm 官方網站：www.15mins.today 加入Clubhouse直播室：https://15minsengcafe.pse.is/46hm8k 訂閱YouTube頻道：https://15minsengcafe.pse.is/3rhuuy 商業合作/贊助來信：15minstoday@gmail.com ------------------------------- 以下有參考逐字稿～ 各播放器有不同字數限制，完整文稿可到官網搜尋 ------------------------------- Topic: Surging shipping rates pose new headwind for the global economy Shocks to supply chains are engulfing a wider swath of the global economy as the pandemic rages on, threatening to stifle Asia's trade-led recovery just as soaring freight rates make it harder for businesses to weather another year like 2020. 疫情肆虐，衝擊供應鏈，全球經濟受創幅度加巨；高昂的運費，讓企業更難再熬過如二○二○年般艱難的一年，以貿易為主導之亞洲經濟，復甦之路恐窒礙難行。 Shortages of consumer goods like paper towels and work-from-home gear early in the COVID-19 crisis have given way to parts shortfalls in one of the most globally integrated of industries: auto manufacturing. 武漢肺炎（新型冠狀病毒病，COVID-19）危機初期的紙巾與在家工作用品等消費品之短缺，已轉為汽車製造業的零件短缺──造車業為全球整合程度最高的工業之一。 Compounding the industrial imbalances are transport woes plaguing consumer and healthcare sectors still dealing with a dearth of available shipping containers to move components and finished products out of China, Taiwan, South Korea and Asia's other export powers. 消費與醫療保健業所面臨之運輸困難，使工業的失衡狀況加劇──由於貨櫃短缺，零組件及製成品很難由中國、台灣、韓國及亞洲其他出口大國運出。 Nerijus Poskus, vice president for global ocean at San Francisco-based freight forwarder Flexport Inc, reckons the world needs the equivalent of 500,000 more 20-foot containers — roughly enough to fill 25 of the largest ships in operation — to satisfy the current demand. In the meantime, standard container rates on transpacific routes are quadruple what they were a year ago. And that is before equipment surcharges and premiums for guaranteed loading are added. 總部設於舊金山的運輸公司「飛協博」全球海洋副總裁奈瑞尤斯‧帕司克斯估計，若要滿足當前需求，全世界需要再增加五十萬個二十呎貨櫃──大約可裝滿二十五艘目前最大的船舶。而且現在跨太平洋航線的標準貨櫃運價是一年前的四倍，這還不包括設備附加費及保證裝載的額外費用。 “Anyone paying the freight bills in 2020 though knows the true cost of shipping is much higher than even the recently increased rates,” Poskus said. “We expect that to only increase in 2021.” 「雖然在二○二○年支付運費的人都知道，真正的運輸成本甚至比最近上漲的運費還要高」，帕司克斯表示。「我們預計在二○二一年只會繼續上漲」。 The unstoppable rise in container shipping costs is borne out by December figures recently announced by Taiwan's three major shipping companies — Evergreen Marine Corp, Yang Ming Marine Transport Corp and Wan Hai Lines Ltd — which saw a record-breaking year-on-year surge of revenue at 58.8 percent, 35.19 percent and 75.71 percent respectively. 貨櫃海運運價一路走高，勢不可擋，台灣貨櫃三雄──長榮、陽明、萬海──近日公布二○二○年十二月營收，分別年增百分之五十八點八、百分之三十五點一九、百分之七十五點七一，皆同步創下歷史新高。 Source article: https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/lang/archives/2021/01/18/2003750759 Next Article Topic: The world is dependent on Taiwan for semiconductors As China pushes the world to avoid official dealings with Taiwan, leaders across the globe are realizing just how dependent they have become on the island democracy. 中國迫使世界斷絕與台灣的正式往來，此時全球的領導人卻了解到，他們對這民主島國的依賴程度已如此之深。 Taiwan is being courted for its capacity to make leading-edge computer chips. That is mostly down to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC), the world's largest foundry and go-to producer of chips for Apple Inc smartphones, artificial intelligence and high-performance computing. 台灣以其製造先進電腦晶片的能力而備受青睞。這主要歸功於台灣積體電路製造公司﹝簡稱台積電﹞。台積電是全球最大的晶圓代工廠，也是蘋果公司智慧型手機、人工智慧及高效能運算晶片的首選製造商。 Taiwan's role in the world economy largely existed below the radar until it came to recent prominence as the auto industry suffered shortfalls in chips used for everything from parking sensors to reducing emissions. With carmakers including Germany's Volkswagen AG, Ford Motor Co of the US and Japan's Toyota Motor Corp forced to halt production and idle plants, Taiwan's importance has suddenly become too big to ignore. 台灣在世界經濟中的角色大多不為人所注意，直到最近由於汽車工業的晶片短缺（由倒車雷達至減少排放等皆須用到晶片），台灣才成為全世界眾所矚目之地。包括德國福斯汽車、美國福特汽車及日本豐田汽車在內的汽車製造商被迫停止生產、將工廠閒置，台灣的重要性因此也突然變得不可忽視。 That is not to say Taiwan is the only player in the semiconductor supply chain. The US still holds dominant positions, notably in chip design and electronic software tools; ASML Holding NV of the Netherlands has a monopoly on the machines needed to fabricate the best chips; Japan is a key supplier of equipment, chemicals and wafers. 這並不是說台灣是半導體供應鏈中的唯一角色。美國仍居主導地位，特別是在晶片設計和電子軟體工具方面；製造最佳晶片所需之機器是由荷蘭的艾司摩爾所壟斷；日本則是設備、化學品和晶圓的主要供應國。 However, as the emphasis shifts to ever smaller, more powerful chips that require less energy, TSMC is increasingly in a field of its own. It has also helped Taiwan form a comprehensive ecosystem around it: ASE Technology Holding is the world's top chip assembler, while MediaTek has become the largest smartphone chipset vendor. 但是，隨著重點轉移到體積更小、功能更強大且用電更少的晶片上，台積電便愈發自成體系。台積電也幫助台灣建構了一個全面的生態系統，以台積電為中心：日月光是世界頂尖的晶片封測廠，而聯發科技已成為智慧型手機晶片組最大的供應商。 A big worry is that TSMC's chip factories could become collateral damage if China were to make good on threats to invade Taiwan if it moves toward independence. 一大隱憂是，若台灣邁向獨立、中國果真入侵台灣，則台積電晶片廠恐受牽連，成為附帶損害。 “Taiwan is the center of gravity of Chinese security policy,” said Mathieu Duchatel, director of the Asia program at the Institut Montaigne in Paris. Preserving the world's most advanced fabs “is in the interests of everyone.” 「台灣是中國安全政策的重中之重」，巴黎蒙田研究所亞洲計畫主任杜懋之表示；保護世界上最先進的晶圓廠「符合所有人的利益」。 Source article: https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/lang/archives/2021/02/01/2003751534 Next Article Topic: Reinventing Workers for the Post-COVID Economy The nation's economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic will hinge to some extent on how quickly show managers can become electricians, whether taxi drivers can become plumbers, and how many cooks can manage software for a bank. 美國經濟能否從新冠疫情影響下復甦，將在一定程度上取決於表演經理們要多久才能變成電工，計程車司機能否化身為水管匠，以及有多少廚師能替銀行管理軟體。 This is likely to prove especially problematic for millions of low-paid workers in service industries like retailing, hospitality, building maintenance and transportation, which may be permanently impaired or fundamentally transformed. What will janitors do if fewer people work in offices? What will waiters do if the urban restaurant ecosystem never recovers its density? 這對零售業、餐旅業、建築維修和運輸業等服務業數百萬低薪工人來說，問題恐怕特別大。這些行業可能受到永久性損害或發生根本性改變。若辦公室裡人變少了，工友要做什麼呢？若都市餐廳生態系統繁盛不再，服務生又該如何？ Their prognosis is bleak. Marcela Escobari, an economist at the Brookings Institution, warns that even if the economy adds jobs as the coronavirus risk fades, “the rebound won't help the people that have been hurt the most.” 他們的前景是黯淡的。布魯金斯學會經濟學家艾思科巴里警告說，即使就業機會隨新冠肺炎風險消退而增加，「經濟反彈也幫不了那些受創最重的人」。 Looking back over 16 years of data, Escobari finds that workers in the occupations most heavily hit since the spring will have a difficult time reinventing themselves. Taxi drivers, dancers and front-desk clerks have poor track records moving to jobs as, say, registered nurses, pipe layers or instrumentation technicians. 艾思科巴里檢視16年來的數據發現，今春以來受衝擊最大的一些職業，勞工將很難自我改造。計程車司機、舞者和櫃檯人員轉行從事護理師、舖管工或儀器技工等工作者十分有限。 COVID is abruptly taking out a swath of jobs that were thought to be comparatively resilient, in services that require personal contact with customers. And the jolt has landed squarely on workers with little or no education beyond high school, toiling in the low-wage service economy. 新冠肺炎疾病突然帶走了一大批原本被認為較不容易永久消失的工作，即需與客戶面對面接觸的服務工作。這一衝擊直接打擊到那些僅受過高中教育、在低薪服務經濟區塊中掙扎的勞工。 “The damage to the economy and particularly to workers will probably be longer lasting than we think it is going to be,” said Peter Beard, senior vice president at the Greater Houston Partnership, an economic development group. 經濟發展組織大休士頓商會資深副總裁畢爾德表示：「經濟、尤其是勞工們受害的時間，可能比我們預期的還要更長。」 What's more, he said, COVID will intensify underlying dynamics that were already transforming the workplace. Automation, for one, will most likely accelerate as employers seek to protect their businesses from future pandemics. 他說，更重要的是，新冠肺炎將強化已經在改變職場的潛在動力，自動化即為一例，由於雇主力求讓自己的企業未來不受大疫情影響，自動化極可能加速。 The challenge is not insurmountable. Yet despite scattered success stories, moving millions of workers into new occupations remains an enormous challenge. 這項挑戰並非不能克服。然而，儘管有少數成功的例子，讓數百萬勞工轉業仍是巨大的挑戰。 “We need a New Deal for skills,” said Amit Sevak, president of Revature, a company that hires workers, trains them to use digital tools and helps place them in jobs. “President Roosevelt deployed the massive number of workers unemployed in the Great Depression on projects that created many of the dams and roads and bridges we have. We need something like that.” 雇用勞工後培訓他們使用數位工具，並幫他們找到工作的Revature公司總裁塞瓦克說：「我們需要一項針對職業技能的新政。小羅斯福總統大蕭條時期把大量失業勞工投入工程計畫，興建了我們現在使用的水壩、道路與橋樑。我們需要這樣的東西。」

Samedi 7 octobre 2023, BE SMART reçoit Bertrand Martinot (Économiste, Institut Montaigne) et Marco Tinelli (Fondateur et Président, Ermès, RedPill)

------------------------------- 強化英語課程資訊 ------------------------------- 「社會人核心英語」有聲書課程連結：https://15minsengcafe.pse.is/554esm ------------------------------- 15Mins.Today 相關連結 ------------------------------- 歡迎針對這一集留言你的想法： 留言連結 官方網站：www.15mins.today 加入Clubhouse直播室：https://15minsengcafe.pse.is/46hm8k 訂閱YouTube頻道：https://15minsengcafe.pse.is/3rhuuy 主題投稿/意見回覆 : ask15mins@gmail.com 商業合作/贊助來信：15minstoday@gmail.com ------------------------------- 以下有參考文字稿～ 各播放器有不同字數限制，完整文稿可到官網搜尋 ------------------------------- Topic: Surging shipping rates pose new headwind for the global economy Shocks to supply chains are engulfing a wider swath of the global economy as the pandemic rages on, threatening to stifle Asia's trade-led recovery just as soaring freight rates make it harder for businesses to weather another year like 2020. 疫情肆虐，衝擊供應鏈，全球經濟受創幅度加巨；高昂的運費，讓企業更難再熬過如二○二○年般艱難的一年，以貿易為主導之亞洲經濟，復甦之路恐窒礙難行。 Shortages of consumer goods like paper towels and work-from-home gear early in the COVID-19 crisis have given way to parts shortfalls in one of the most globally integrated of industries: auto manufacturing. 武漢肺炎（新型冠狀病毒病，COVID-19）危機初期的紙巾與在家工作用品等消費品之短缺，已轉為汽車製造業的零件短缺──造車業為全球整合程度最高的工業之一。 Compounding the industrial imbalances are transport woes plaguing consumer and healthcare sectors still dealing with a dearth of available shipping containers to move components and finished products out of China, Taiwan, South Korea and Asia's other export powers. 消費與醫療保健業所面臨之運輸困難，使工業的失衡狀況加劇──由於貨櫃短缺，零組件及製成品很難由中國、台灣、韓國及亞洲其他出口大國運出。 Nerijus Poskus, vice president for global ocean at San Francisco-based freight forwarder Flexport Inc, reckons the world needs the equivalent of 500,000 more 20-foot containers — roughly enough to fill 25 of the largest ships in operation — to satisfy the current demand. In the meantime, standard container rates on transpacific routes are quadruple what they were a year ago. And that is before equipment surcharges and premiums for guaranteed loading are added. 總部設於舊金山的運輸公司「飛協博」全球海洋副總裁奈瑞尤斯‧帕司克斯估計，若要滿足當前需求，全世界需要再增加五十萬個二十呎貨櫃──大約可裝滿二十五艘目前最大的船舶。而且現在跨太平洋航線的標準貨櫃運價是一年前的四倍，這還不包括設備附加費及保證裝載的額外費用。 “Anyone paying the freight bills in 2020 though knows the true cost of shipping is much higher than even the recently increased rates,” Poskus said. “We expect that to only increase in 2021.” 「雖然在二○二○年支付運費的人都知道，真正的運輸成本甚至比最近上漲的運費還要高」，帕司克斯表示。「我們預計在二○二一年只會繼續上漲」。 The unstoppable rise in container shipping costs is borne out by December figures recently announced by Taiwan's three major shipping companies — Evergreen Marine Corp, Yang Ming Marine Transport Corp and Wan Hai Lines Ltd — which saw a record-breaking year-on-year surge of revenue at 58.8 percent, 35.19 percent and 75.71 percent respectively. 貨櫃海運運價一路走高，勢不可擋，台灣貨櫃三雄──長榮、陽明、萬海──近日公布二○二○年十二月營收，分別年增百分之五十八點八、百分之三十五點一九、百分之七十五點七一，皆同步創下歷史新高。 Source article: https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/lang/archives/2021/01/18/2003750759 Next Article Topic: The world is dependent on Taiwan for semiconductors As China pushes the world to avoid official dealings with Taiwan, leaders across the globe are realizing just how dependent they have become on the island democracy. 中國迫使世界斷絕與台灣的正式往來，此時全球的領導人卻了解到，他們對這民主島國的依賴程度已如此之深。 Taiwan is being courted for its capacity to make leading-edge computer chips. That is mostly down to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC), the world's largest foundry and go-to producer of chips for Apple Inc smartphones, artificial intelligence and high-performance computing. 台灣以其製造先進電腦晶片的能力而備受青睞。這主要歸功於台灣積體電路製造公司﹝簡稱台積電﹞。台積電是全球最大的晶圓代工廠，也是蘋果公司智慧型手機、人工智慧及高效能運算晶片的首選製造商。 Taiwan's role in the world economy largely existed below the radar until it came to recent prominence as the auto industry suffered shortfalls in chips used for everything from parking sensors to reducing emissions. With carmakers including Germany's Volkswagen AG, Ford Motor Co of the US and Japan's Toyota Motor Corp forced to halt production and idle plants, Taiwan's importance has suddenly become too big to ignore. 台灣在世界經濟中的角色大多不為人所注意，直到最近由於汽車工業的晶片短缺（由倒車雷達至減少排放等皆須用到晶片），台灣才成為全世界眾所矚目之地。包括德國福斯汽車、美國福特汽車及日本豐田汽車在內的汽車製造商被迫停止生產、將工廠閒置，台灣的重要性因此也突然變得不可忽視。 That is not to say Taiwan is the only player in the semiconductor supply chain. The US still holds dominant positions, notably in chip design and electronic software tools; ASML Holding NV of the Netherlands has a monopoly on the machines needed to fabricate the best chips; Japan is a key supplier of equipment, chemicals and wafers. 這並不是說台灣是半導體供應鏈中的唯一角色。美國仍居主導地位，特別是在晶片設計和電子軟體工具方面；製造最佳晶片所需之機器是由荷蘭的艾司摩爾所壟斷；日本則是設備、化學品和晶圓的主要供應國。 However, as the emphasis shifts to ever smaller, more powerful chips that require less energy, TSMC is increasingly in a field of its own. It has also helped Taiwan form a comprehensive ecosystem around it: ASE Technology Holding is the world's top chip assembler, while MediaTek has become the largest smartphone chipset vendor. 但是，隨著重點轉移到體積更小、功能更強大且用電更少的晶片上，台積電便愈發自成體系。台積電也幫助台灣建構了一個全面的生態系統，以台積電為中心：日月光是世界頂尖的晶片封測廠，而聯發科技已成為智慧型手機晶片組最大的供應商。 A big worry is that TSMC's chip factories could become collateral damage if China were to make good on threats to invade Taiwan if it moves toward independence. 一大隱憂是，若台灣邁向獨立、中國果真入侵台灣，則台積電晶片廠恐受牽連，成為附帶損害。 “Taiwan is the center of gravity of Chinese security policy,” said Mathieu Duchatel, director of the Asia program at the Institut Montaigne in Paris. Preserving the world's most advanced fabs “is in the interests of everyone.” 「台灣是中國安全政策的重中之重」，巴黎蒙田研究所亞洲計畫主任杜懋之表示；保護世界上最先進的晶圓廠「符合所有人的利益」。 Source article: https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/lang/archives/2021/02/01/2003751534 Next Article Topic: Reinventing Workers for the Post-COVID Economy The nation's economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic will hinge to some extent on how quickly show managers can become electricians, whether taxi drivers can become plumbers, and how many cooks can manage software for a bank. 美國經濟能否從新冠疫情影響下復甦，將在一定程度上取決於表演經理們要多久才能變成電工，計程車司機能否化身為水管匠，以及有多少廚師能替銀行管理軟體。 This is likely to prove especially problematic for millions of low-paid workers in service industries like retailing, hospitality, building maintenance and transportation, which may be permanently impaired or fundamentally transformed. What will janitors do if fewer people work in offices? What will waiters do if the urban restaurant ecosystem never recovers its density? 這對零售業、餐旅業、建築維修和運輸業等服務業數百萬低薪工人來說，問題恐怕特別大。這些行業可能受到永久性損害或發生根本性改變。若辦公室裡人變少了，工友要做什麼呢？若都市餐廳生態系統繁盛不再，服務生又該如何？ Their prognosis is bleak. Marcela Escobari, an economist at the Brookings Institution, warns that even if the economy adds jobs as the coronavirus risk fades, “the rebound won't help the people that have been hurt the most.” 他們的前景是黯淡的。布魯金斯學會經濟學家艾思科巴里警告說，即使就業機會隨新冠肺炎風險消退而增加，「經濟反彈也幫不了那些受創最重的人」。 Looking back over 16 years of data, Escobari finds that workers in the occupations most heavily hit since the spring will have a difficult time reinventing themselves. Taxi drivers, dancers and front-desk clerks have poor track records moving to jobs as, say, registered nurses, pipe layers or instrumentation technicians. 艾思科巴里檢視16年來的數據發現，今春以來受衝擊最大的一些職業，勞工將很難自我改造。計程車司機、舞者和櫃檯人員轉行從事護理師、舖管工或儀器技工等工作者十分有限。 COVID is abruptly taking out a swath of jobs that were thought to be comparatively resilient, in services that require personal contact with customers. And the jolt has landed squarely on workers with little or no education beyond high school, toiling in the low-wage service economy. 新冠肺炎疾病突然帶走了一大批原本被認為較不容易永久消失的工作，即需與客戶面對面接觸的服務工作。這一衝擊直接打擊到那些僅受過高中教育、在低薪服務經濟區塊中掙扎的勞工。 “The damage to the economy and particularly to workers will probably be longer lasting than we think it is going to be,” said Peter Beard, senior vice president at the Greater Houston Partnership, an economic development group. 經濟發展組織大休士頓商會資深副總裁畢爾德表示：「經濟、尤其是勞工們受害的時間，可能比我們預期的還要更長。」 What's more, he said, COVID will intensify underlying dynamics that were already transforming the workplace. Automation, for one, will most likely accelerate as employers seek to protect their businesses from future pandemics. 他說，更重要的是，新冠肺炎將強化已經在改變職場的潛在動力，自動化即為一例，由於雇主力求讓自己的企業未來不受大疫情影響，自動化極可能加速。 The challenge is not insurmountable. Yet despite scattered success stories, moving millions of workers into new occupations remains an enormous challenge. 這項挑戰並非不能克服。然而，儘管有少數成功的例子，讓數百萬勞工轉業仍是巨大的挑戰。 “We need a New Deal for skills,” said Amit Sevak, president of Revature, a company that hires workers, trains them to use digital tools and helps place them in jobs. “President Roosevelt deployed the massive number of workers unemployed in the Great Depression on projects that created many of the dams and roads and bridges we have. We need something like that.” 雇用勞工後培訓他們使用數位工具，並幫他們找到工作的Revature公司總裁塞瓦克說：「我們需要一項針對職業技能的新政。小羅斯福總統大蕭條時期把大量失業勞工投入工程計畫，興建了我們現在使用的水壩、道路與橋樑。我們需要這樣的東西。」

EPISODE 1505: In this KEEN ON show, Andrew talks to the Istanbul based political scientist Soli Özel about President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's return to power in Turkey Soli Özel is a member of the European Council on Foreign Relations and a senior lecturer at Istanbul Kadir Has University. Özel was a “Europe's Futures” fellow at Institute for Human Sciences in Vienna in 2021–22. During the pandemic, he taught course at the American University in Central Asia and the Menton campus of Sciences-Po. He also hosted webinar series for Institut Montaigne on the American elections and on the changing geopolitics of the Middle East. He was a Bernstein Fellow at the Schell Center for Human Rights at Yale Law School and a visiting lecturer in Yale's political science department. Özel has been a columnist at Nokta magazine and GazetePazar, Yeni Binyıl, Habertürk, and Sabah newspapers. Currently he writes for Deutsche Welle-Turkish and Politikyol, and provides a weekly commentary on world affairs for Gazete Duvar TV. He has held fellowships at Oxford University the EU Institute of Strategic Studies, the Robert Bosch Academy in Berlin, Institut Montaigne in Paris, and the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard University. Özel holds an MA in International Relations from Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS-1983). Named as one of the "100 most connected men" by GQ magazine, Andrew Keen is amongst the world's best known broadcasters and commentators. In addition to presenting KEEN ON, he is the host of the long-running How To Fix Democracy show. He is also the author of four prescient books about digital technology: CULT OF THE AMATEUR, DIGITAL VERTIGO, THE INTERNET IS NOT THE ANSWER and HOW TO FIX THE FUTURE. Andrew lives in San Francisco, is married to Cassandra Knight, Google's VP of Litigation & Discovery, and has two grown children. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

French President Emmanuel Macron was elected for his second term one year ago, on April 24th, 2021. How strong or weak is he now? I talked to Georgina Wright, a Senior Fellow, and Director of Institut Montaigne's Europe Program. We discuss recent Macron's visit to China and its aftermath but also French domestic politics. Is Macron naive? And is there a danger that he is paving the way for a radical successor? Listen to our conversation. And if you enjoy what I do, please support me on Ko-fi! Thank you. ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://ko-fi.com/amatisak⁠⁠  --- Send in a voice message: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/andrej-matisak/message

Humza Yousaf is Scotland's new first minister – but following the Nicola Sturgeon era is no easy task. The Sunday Mail's Hannah Rodger joins the podcast team to weigh up the challenge ahead for Yousaf, and ask what the SNP's change at the top means for the Scottish political landscape.   Is Rishi Sunak really that much of a Green Day fan? As parliament rises for recess, Inside Briefing turns its attention to Westminster to issue an Easter report card for Rishi Sunak.   PLUS: Panic on the streets of Paris! The Institut Montaigne's Georgina Wright drops in to the IfG to give us the lowdown on the problems facing Emmanuel Macron.   Hannah White presents. With Emma Norris and Akash Paun   Produced by Neil Bowerman.

The French president Emmanuel Macron's government narrowly survived a confidence vote after it invoked a contentious article of the constitution to override parliament and pass an unpopular reform to the pensions system. The move enraged the opposition and unions, which have vowed to escalate direct action in protest. For a special episode, Ido Vock in Berlin is joined by Georgina Wright, director of the Institut Montaigne's Europe Programme, in Paris, to discuss why the government thought it needed to force through the bill to raise the retirement age to 64, why the decision caused outrage and what options the protest movement has left. Read more: Emmanuel Macron has shown his contempt for democracyChaos erupts over Emmanuel Macron's retirement reforms Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Ahead of the first bilateral summit between the two countries' leaders for five years, Rafael Behr talks to Georgina Wright, from the Institut Montaigne in Paris, about what the French really think about us Brits, and what we often get wrong about French discourse, customs and political culture. Quite a lot, as it happens. Georgina Wright is Senior Fellow and Director of Institut Montaigne's Europe Program. She is also a Visiting Fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, associate of the Institute for Government in London and Senior Fellow at the Centre for Britain and Europe at the University of Surrey. Before joining Institut Montaigne, she was senior researcher at the Institute for Government (2019-2020) and research associate at Chatham House (2014-2018). She has also worked for the European Commission and NATO in Brussels. Georgina regularly represents Institut Montaigne on national and international news media, and has written widely for foreign policy outlets. She studied at the University of Edinburgh and the College of Europe (Bruges). https://www.institutmontaigne.org/en/experts/georgina-wright This podcast is hosted by ZenCast.fm

Plusieurs centaines de milliers de tués et de blessés, des villes détruites, des dizaines d'avions de combat abattus, des navires de guerre coulés… et des menaces d'emploi de l'arme nucléaire. L'an deux de la guerre d'Ukraine a commencé et le constat est celui d'une intensification des combats dans le Donbass. Résistance ukrainienne contre rouleau compresseur russe, soutenu par les combattants de la milice privée Wagner. Côté diplomatique, la récente tournée en Europe et à Moscou du chef de la Diplomatie chinoise, Wang Yi, continue d'interroger sur l'intérêt de Pékin à s'investir pour faire la paix en Ukraine.  Invités :   Pierre Lellouche, ancien ministre. Ancien Président de l'Assemblée Parlementaire de l'OTAN. (Article dans Le Monde : « En Ukraine, n'est-il pas temps de s'interroger sur une sortie de cette guerre ? ») Michel Duclos, ancien ambassadeur. Conseiller spécial de l'Institut Montaigne. « Guerre en Ukraine et nouvel ordre du monde. 22 regards internationaux après l'agression russe », coédition Institut Montaigne et les Éditions de l'Observatoire   Jean Radvanyi, professeur émérite à l'INALCO, spécialiste de la Russie et de l'espace postsoviétique. « Russie un vertige de puissance », éditions La Découverte. 

BFMTV : PIÉGÉE PAR DES MERCENAIRES DE L'INFO EXPERTS PIERRE HASKI Chroniqueur international - « France Inter » et « L'Obs » JULIEN PAIN Journaliste spécialiste des fake news – « France Info TV » JÉRÔME CHAPUIS Directeur de la rédaction – « La Croix » ASMA MHALLA Spécialiste des enjeux politiques et géopolitiques du numérique – Institut Montaigne

(00:00:49) Les ballons espions ternissent les relations Chine-USA (chapô pour le Web : Interview de Mathieu Duchâtel, directeur du programme Asie à l'Institut Montaigne) (00:11:09) De jeunes hockeyeurs ukrainiens au tournoi Pee-Wee à Québec (00:17:00) Le business de l'amour à Dubaï

歡迎留言告訴我們你對這一集的想法： https://open.firstory.me/user/cl81kivnk00dn01wffhwxdg2s/comments Topic: Surging shipping rates pose new headwind for the global economy Shocks to supply chains are engulfing a wider swath of the global economy as the pandemic rages on, threatening to stifle Asia's trade-led recovery just as soaring freight rates make it harder for businesses to weather another year like 2020. 疫情肆虐，衝擊供應鏈，全球經濟受創幅度加巨；高昂的運費，讓企業更難再熬過如二○二○年般艱難的一年，以貿易為主導之亞洲經濟，復甦之路恐窒礙難行。 Shortages of consumer goods like paper towels and work-from-home gear early in the COVID-19 crisis have given way to parts shortfalls in one of the most globally integrated of industries: auto manufacturing. 武漢肺炎（新型冠狀病毒病，COVID-19）危機初期的紙巾與在家工作用品等消費品之短缺，已轉為汽車製造業的零件短缺──造車業為全球整合程度最高的工業之一。 Compounding the industrial imbalances are transport woes plaguing consumer and healthcare sectors still dealing with a dearth of available shipping containers to move components and finished products out of China, Taiwan, South Korea and Asia's other export powers. 消費與醫療保健業所面臨之運輸困難，使工業的失衡狀況加劇──由於貨櫃短缺，零組件及製成品很難由中國、台灣、韓國及亞洲其他出口大國運出。 Nerijus Poskus, vice president for global ocean at San Francisco-based freight forwarder Flexport Inc, reckons the world needs the equivalent of 500,000 more 20-foot containers — roughly enough to fill 25 of the largest ships in operation — to satisfy the current demand. In the meantime, standard container rates on transpacific routes are quadruple what they were a year ago. And that is before equipment surcharges and premiums for guaranteed loading are added. 總部設於舊金山的運輸公司「飛協博」全球海洋副總裁奈瑞尤斯‧帕司克斯估計，若要滿足當前需求，全世界需要再增加五十萬個二十呎貨櫃──大約可裝滿二十五艘目前最大的船舶。而且現在跨太平洋航線的標準貨櫃運價是一年前的四倍，這還不包括設備附加費及保證裝載的額外費用。 “Anyone paying the freight bills in 2020 though knows the true cost of shipping is much higher than even the recently increased rates,” Poskus said. “We expect that to only increase in 2021.” 「雖然在二○二○年支付運費的人都知道，真正的運輸成本甚至比最近上漲的運費還要高」，帕司克斯表示。「我們預計在二○二一年只會繼續上漲」。 The unstoppable rise in container shipping costs is borne out by December figures recently announced by Taiwan's three major shipping companies — Evergreen Marine Corp, Yang Ming Marine Transport Corp and Wan Hai Lines Ltd — which saw a record-breaking year-on-year surge of revenue at 58.8 percent, 35.19 percent and 75.71 percent respectively. 貨櫃海運運價一路走高，勢不可擋，台灣貨櫃三雄──長榮、陽明、萬海──近日公布二○二○年十二月營收，分別年增百分之五十八點八、百分之三十五點一九、百分之七十五點七一，皆同步創下歷史新高。 Source article: https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/lang/archives/2021/01/18/2003750759 Next Article Topic: The world is dependent on Taiwan for semiconductors As China pushes the world to avoid official dealings with Taiwan, leaders across the globe are realizing just how dependent they have become on the island democracy. 中國迫使世界斷絕與台灣的正式往來，此時全球的領導人卻了解到，他們對這民主島國的依賴程度已如此之深。 Taiwan is being courted for its capacity to make leading-edge computer chips. That is mostly down to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC), the world's largest foundry and go-to producer of chips for Apple Inc smartphones, artificial intelligence and high-performance computing. 台灣以其製造先進電腦晶片的能力而備受青睞。這主要歸功於台灣積體電路製造公司﹝簡稱台積電﹞。台積電是全球最大的晶圓代工廠，也是蘋果公司智慧型手機、人工智慧及高效能運算晶片的首選製造商。 Taiwan's role in the world economy largely existed below the radar until it came to recent prominence as the auto industry suffered shortfalls in chips used for everything from parking sensors to reducing emissions. With carmakers including Germany's Volkswagen AG, Ford Motor Co of the US and Japan's Toyota Motor Corp forced to halt production and idle plants, Taiwan's importance has suddenly become too big to ignore. 台灣在世界經濟中的角色大多不為人所注意，直到最近由於汽車工業的晶片短缺（由倒車雷達至減少排放等皆須用到晶片），台灣才成為全世界眾所矚目之地。包括德國福斯汽車、美國福特汽車及日本豐田汽車在內的汽車製造商被迫停止生產、將工廠閒置，台灣的重要性因此也突然變得不可忽視。 That is not to say Taiwan is the only player in the semiconductor supply chain. The US still holds dominant positions, notably in chip design and electronic software tools; ASML Holding NV of the Netherlands has a monopoly on the machines needed to fabricate the best chips; Japan is a key supplier of equipment, chemicals and wafers. 這並不是說台灣是半導體供應鏈中的唯一角色。美國仍居主導地位，特別是在晶片設計和電子軟體工具方面；製造最佳晶片所需之機器是由荷蘭的艾司摩爾所壟斷；日本則是設備、化學品和晶圓的主要供應國。 However, as the emphasis shifts to ever smaller, more powerful chips that require less energy, TSMC is increasingly in a field of its own. It has also helped Taiwan form a comprehensive ecosystem around it: ASE Technology Holding is the world's top chip assembler, while MediaTek has become the largest smartphone chipset vendor. 但是，隨著重點轉移到體積更小、功能更強大且用電更少的晶片上，台積電便愈發自成體系。台積電也幫助台灣建構了一個全面的生態系統，以台積電為中心：日月光是世界頂尖的晶片封測廠，而聯發科技已成為智慧型手機晶片組最大的供應商。 A big worry is that TSMC's chip factories could become collateral damage if China were to make good on threats to invade Taiwan if it moves toward independence. 一大隱憂是，若台灣邁向獨立、中國果真入侵台灣，則台積電晶片廠恐受牽連，成為附帶損害。 “Taiwan is the center of gravity of Chinese security policy,” said Mathieu Duchatel, director of the Asia program at the Institut Montaigne in Paris. Preserving the world's most advanced fabs “is in the interests of everyone.” 「台灣是中國安全政策的重中之重」，巴黎蒙田研究所亞洲計畫主任杜懋之表示；保護世界上最先進的晶圓廠「符合所有人的利益」。 Source article: https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/lang/archives/2021/02/01/2003751534 Next Article Topic: Reinventing Workers for the Post-COVID Economy The nation's economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic will hinge to some extent on how quickly show managers can become electricians, whether taxi drivers can become plumbers, and how many cooks can manage software for a bank. 美國經濟能否從新冠疫情影響下復甦，將在一定程度上取決於表演經理們要多久才能變成電工，計程車司機能否化身為水管匠，以及有多少廚師能替銀行管理軟體。 This is likely to prove especially problematic for millions of low-paid workers in service industries like retailing, hospitality, building maintenance and transportation, which may be permanently impaired or fundamentally transformed. What will janitors do if fewer people work in offices? What will waiters do if the urban restaurant ecosystem never recovers its density? 這對零售業、餐旅業、建築維修和運輸業等服務業數百萬低薪工人來說，問題恐怕特別大。這些行業可能受到永久性損害或發生根本性改變。若辦公室裡人變少了，工友要做什麼呢？若都市餐廳生態系統繁盛不再，服務生又該如何？ Their prognosis is bleak. Marcela Escobari, an economist at the Brookings Institution, warns that even if the economy adds jobs as the coronavirus risk fades, “the rebound won't help the people that have been hurt the most.” 他們的前景是黯淡的。布魯金斯學會經濟學家艾思科巴里警告說，即使就業機會隨新冠肺炎風險消退而增加，「經濟反彈也幫不了那些受創最重的人」。 Looking back over 16 years of data, Escobari finds that workers in the occupations most heavily hit since the spring will have a difficult time reinventing themselves. Taxi drivers, dancers and front-desk clerks have poor track records moving to jobs as, say, registered nurses, pipe layers or instrumentation technicians. 艾思科巴里檢視16年來的數據發現，今春以來受衝擊最大的一些職業，勞工將很難自我改造。計程車司機、舞者和櫃檯人員轉行從事護理師、舖管工或儀器技工等工作者十分有限。 COVID is abruptly taking out a swath of jobs that were thought to be comparatively resilient, in services that require personal contact with customers. And the jolt has landed squarely on workers with little or no education beyond high school, toiling in the low-wage service economy. 新冠肺炎疾病突然帶走了一大批原本被認為較不容易永久消失的工作，即需與客戶面對面接觸的服務工作。這一衝擊直接打擊到那些僅受過高中教育、在低薪服務經濟區塊中掙扎的勞工。 “The damage to the economy and particularly to workers will probably be longer lasting than we think it is going to be,” said Peter Beard, senior vice president at the Greater Houston Partnership, an economic development group. 經濟發展組織大休士頓商會資深副總裁畢爾德表示：「經濟、尤其是勞工們受害的時間，可能比我們預期的還要更長。」 What's more, he said, COVID will intensify underlying dynamics that were already transforming the workplace. Automation, for one, will most likely accelerate as employers seek to protect their businesses from future pandemics. 他說，更重要的是，新冠肺炎將強化已經在改變職場的潛在動力，自動化即為一例，由於雇主力求讓自己的企業未來不受大疫情影響，自動化極可能加速。 The challenge is not insurmountable. Yet despite scattered success stories, moving millions of workers into new occupations remains an enormous challenge. 這項挑戰並非不能克服。然而，儘管有少數成功的例子，讓數百萬勞工轉業仍是巨大的挑戰。 “We need a New Deal for skills,” said Amit Sevak, president of Revature, a company that hires workers, trains them to use digital tools and helps place them in jobs. “President Roosevelt deployed the massive number of workers unemployed in the Great Depression on projects that created many of the dams and roads and bridges we have. We need something like that.” 雇用勞工後培訓他們使用數位工具，並幫他們找到工作的Revature公司總裁塞瓦克說：「我們需要一項針對職業技能的新政。小羅斯福總統大蕭條時期把大量失業勞工投入工程計畫，興建了我們現在使用的水壩、道路與橋樑。我們需要這樣的東西。」 Powered by Firstory Hosting

Mardi 29 novembre 2022, SMART TECH reçoit Ingrid Sollner (directrice marketing, Tethris) , Christelle Erémian (journaliste, revue spécialisée Electroniques) , Mathieu Duchâtel (directeur du programme Asie, Institut Montaigne) et Damien Bancal (fondateur, Zataz.com)

Franck Morel, avocat, ancien conseiller social d'Edouard Philippe et auteur du rapport de l'Institut Montaigne sur l'emploi des seniors, était l'invité de Christophe Jakubyszyn dans Good Morning Business, ce mardi 25 octobre. Il a défendu les propositions de l'Institut Montaigne sur l'emploi des seniors, sachant que le taux est aujourd'hui inférieur à la moyenne européenne, sur BFM Business. Retrouvez l'émission du lundi au vendredi et réécoutez la en podcast.

Intervention de la BoE après l'annonce du plan de baisse d'impôts britannique, futur remontées des taux de la BCE, taux souverains américains, marchés financiers : Eric Chaney, conseiller économique de l'Institut Montaigne, était l'invité de l'émission Ecorama du 29 septembre 2022, présentée par David Jacquot sur Boursorama.com

Last week saw momentous change in the UK as a new Prime Minister was appointed on Tuesday. Thursday the Queen suddenly passed, succeeded by her eldest son Charles III. Georgina joins us to put it all in perspective and gives us a sense of what to expect. --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/james-herlihy/message

Invitée: Blanche Leridon. Le matin est le moment de la journée où nous revenons au monde, après une nuit de sommeil. En quoi ce commencement est-il particulier? Pourquoi est-il vécu de manière différente par les personnes - celles qui sont du matin et celles qui ne sont pas? Entre oisiveté et efficacité, pourquoi ce que l'on en fait - ou pas - à ce moment-là est soumis à des jugements? Tribu parle du sujet en compagnie de Blanche Leridon, autrice, rédactrice en chef à l'Institut Montaigne, chargée d'enseignement à Sciences Po. Elle publie "Odyssées ordinaires. Le matin mode d'emploi" paru aux éditions Bouquins. Une nouvelle diffusion du 24 mars 2022.

Georgina Wright works for the Paris based Think Tank, Institut Montaigne. She brings 10 years of Think Tank experience working on European and British issues in London and Brussels. Today she focuses on the Conservatives' vote to replace ousted Prime Minister Boris Johnson. The race is between Liz Truss, the Foreign Secretary and Rishi Sunak, former Chancellor of the Exchequer. --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/james-herlihy/message

Gaz Russe, absence de majorité absolue pour Emmanuel Macron, volatilité des marchés : Eric Chaney, conseiller économique de l'Institut Montaigne, était l'invité de l'émission Ecorama du 20 juin 2022, présentée par David Jacquot sur Boursorama.com

Emmanuel Macron won the French presidential election as he received 58.5 percent of the vote in the run-off round against far-right candidate Marine Le Pen who was supported by 41.5 percent of voters. It was a hard-fought victory but the French president cannot sleep on laurels as the legislative election is swiftly approaching. What's Macron's vision for the next five years? Does he want to be the leader of the EU, and does he have a recipe for how to beat illiberals? I talked to Georgina Wright, a Senior Fellow, and Director of Institut Montaigne's Europe Program. I also asked her if she thinks that Macron is arrogant. Listen to our conversation. And if enjoy what I do, please support me on Ko-fi! Thank you. https://ko-fi.com/amatisak --- Send in a voice message: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/andrej-matisak/message

With less than a week to go until a series of elections across the UK, the FT's Jim Pickard joins the podcast team to discuss what's at stake - and what the results could mean.   The cost of living crisis will no doubt be featuring on the doorstep, so is there more the government could be doing to help?   And as Emmanuel Macron secures a second term as French President, the Institut Montaigne's Georgina Wright dials in from Paris to talk through an eventful - and crucial - election.    Presented by Hannah White, with Akash Paun and Olly Bartrum Produced by Candice McKenzie   

In dieser Folge sprechen wir über die EU-Ratspräsidentschaft und die Präsidentschaftswahl in Frankreich sowie deren außenpolitische Implikationen.Außerdem werden wir unsere neue Rubrik “Sicherheit auf dem Campus” vorstellen - was euch da erwartet, erfahrt ihr gegen Ende der neuen Folge.Abschnitte:00:00: Einleitung und Perspektiven6:00: Französische Ratspräsidentschaft36:00: Präsidentschaftswahl in Frankreich1:08:30: Ausblick1:13:00: Sicherheitspolitik auf dem Campus1:16:00 : AbschlussKorrektur 1:12:00:Bei Alstom handelt es sich nicht um einen staatlichen Rüstungskonzern, sondern um einen börsennotierten Transport- und Energiekonzern, der u.a. für die französischen Atomparks vitale Technologien bereitstellt(e) und daher nach massiven Subventionen in den 2000er Jahren unter gewisser staatlicher Kontrolle stand. Die gewichtigere Energiebranche Alstoms wurde 2014 mit dem deshalb benötigten Einverständnis des damaligen Wirtschaftsministers Macron an den amerikanischen Konzern General Electrics verkauft, ein Minusgeschäft, das zudem Schlüsseltechnologien französischer Hand entriss. Dabei scheinen zudem später bedeutende Unterstützer und Finanzierer von Macrons Wahlkampagne 2017 stark vom Verkauf der Energiebranche Alstoms profitiert haben. Deshalb wird dem aktuellen Präsidenten der Republik Korruption und Verrat an Interessen des französischen Volkes vorgeworfen.Quellen:Arnold, S. (2021). Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik. Sicherheitspolitische Ziele der französischen EU-Ratspräsidentschaft. Paris benötigt die Unterstützung der neuen Bundesregierung.Avec vous (2022). Emmanuel-Macron-Avec-Vous-24-pages.pdfAvec vous (2022). Notre projet présidentiel pour la France - avec vousBerdah A., Bourmaud F. (2022). lefigaro. Présidentielle 2022: Emmanuel Macron, maître des horloges rattrapé par le tempsBritannica. (2022). Marine Le PenBundeszentrale für Politische Bildung (2022). Kurz und knapp. Hintergrund aktuell. Französische EU-Ratspräsidentschaft.bpb. (2022). Wahlen in Frankreich 2022 Euractiv, AFP. (2021). Baerbock sichert Frankreich für EU-Ratspräsidentschaft deutsche Unterstützung zuEuropäischer Rat und Rat der Europäischen Union. Tagungen. Internationale Gipfeltreffen. Gipfeltreffen Europäische Union – Afrikanische Union, 17./18. Februar 2022.Franceinfo, AFP. (2022). Présidentielle : pouvoir d'achat, retraites, climat... Retrouvez les propositions des candidats sur les principaux thèmes de campagne Frankreich Diplomatie. (2021). Französische Präsidentschaft im Rat der Europäischen UnionFranzösische Präsidentschaft im Rat der Europäischen Union. (2022). Halbzeitbilanz der französischen Präsidentschaft im Rat der Europäischen UnionHugoDécrypte (2022). La remontée de Mélenchon, Macron et Le Pen qualifiés... Le débrief du soir du premier tour. https://youtu.be/eTGWKZCpIVEifrap. (2022) Comparateur de Programmes: Présidentielle 2022Ipsos (2022). Présidentielle 2022 | Le pouvoir d'achat, enjeu majeur de l'électionIpsos (2022). Présidentielle 2022 : une bien étrange campagne | IpsosJean-Luc Mélenchon. (2022). La lutte continue. https://youtu.be/izCL2pR8UCEJoubert, F. (2021). Freelanceinfos. Emmanuel Macron et Valérie Pécresse : liés par "l'affaire Alstom" ?Institut Montaigne (2022).Présidentielle 2022Klingsieck, R. (2022). nd. Macron nutzt die europäische BühneLeMonde, Présidentielle 2022. (2022) Comparez les programmes des 12 candidats à l'élection présidentielle 2022LeMonde. (2022).Présidentielle : pouvoir d'achat, retraites, climat... Retrouvez les propositions des candidats sur les principaux thèmes de campagneLibération (2022). Élection Présidentielle 2022 : candidats, dates, sondages et résultatsMélenchon2022 (2021). Le programme de Jean-Luc Mélenchon 2022MlaFrance (2022). Communiqué de Marine Le Pen sur la situation en UkraineMLaFrance (2022). Le Programme de Marine Le Pen | Présidentielles 2022 | M La FrancePoussielgue G. (2022). Présidentielle : Emmanuel Macron lance son site de campagneRat der EU (2022). Französische Präsidentschaft im Rat der Europäischen Union. Programm der Präsidentschaft.Programm der französischen Präsidentschaft im Rat der Europäischen Union.Rat der EU (2022). Französische Präsidentschaft im Rat der Europäischen Union. Programm der Trio-Präsidentschaft. Rat der Europäischen Union (2021). Programm der Trio-Ratspräsidentschaft. Die Strategische Agenda voranbringen. Achtzehnmonatsprogramm des Rates (1. Januar 2022 bis 30. Juni 2023).Rat der EU (2022). Französische Präsidentschaft im Rat der EU. Halbzeitbilanz der französischen Präsidentschaft im Rat der Europäischen Union. Rat der EU (2022). Französische Präsidentschaft im Rat der Europäischen Union. Bilanz und Perspektiven der Vorbeugung gegen die Radikalisierung in Europa. Rat der EU (2022). Französische Präsidentschaft im Rat der Europäischen Union. Ein Strategischer Kompass für mehr Sicherheit und Verteidigung der EU im nächsten JahrzehntRat der EU (2022). Pressemitteilung. Ein Strategischer Kompass für mehr Sicherheit und Verteidigung der EU im nächsten Jahrzehnt.Ross J. (2022). bpb. Emmanuel Macron„Man verändert ein Land nicht in fünf Jahren“Santrot, F. (2022). We Demain.https://www.wedemain.fr/dechiffrer/ecologie-les-programmes-demmanuel-macron-et-marine-le-pen-en-detail/Schmidt, H. (2021). Tagesschau. ARD. Im Einsatz für ein "souveräneres Europa"Sénécat, A/Vaudano, M. (2022). LeMonde.Shehata H. (2022). bpb. Marine Le Pen„Ich will den Franzosen ihr Land zurückgeben“https://www.lemonde.fr/les-decodeurs/article/2022/04/06/en-resume-ce-qu-il-faut-savoir-sur-les-12-candidats-a-la-presidentielle_6120876_4355770.htmlZemmour, É. (2022). Programme présidentielle d'Éric Zemmour 2022

Mercredi 13 avril 2022, SMART TECH reçoit Thierry Braconnier (Président Directeur Général, Halys) , Stella Morabito (Déléguée Générale, AFNUM) , Mathieu Duchatel (Directeur du programme Asie, Institut Montaigne) , Olivia Strigari (directrice de la publication et co-fondatrice, Informelles) et Jacques Moulin (Directeur Général, IDATE DigiWorld)

Invitée: Blanche Leridon. Le matin est le moment de la journée où nous revenons au monde, après une nuit de sommeil. En quoi ce commencement est-il particulier? Pourquoi est-il vécu de manière différente par les personnes - celles qui sont du matin et celles qui ne sont pas? Entre oisiveté et efficacité, pourquoi ce que l'on en fait - ou pas - à ce moment-là est soumis à des jugements? Tribu parle du sujet en compagnie de Blanche Leridon, autrice, rédactrice en chef à l'Institut Montaigne, chargée d'enseignement à Sciences Po. Elle publie "Odyssées ordinaires. Le matin mode d'emploi" paru aux éditions Bouquins.

The awful scenes of war and violence in Ukraine show no sign of ending. Will an unprecedented barrage of sanctions be enough to shift Vladimir Putin's strategy? If not, what other options are available to the West? The IfG team are joined by Georgina Wright of Institut Montaigne to discuss where the crisis might go next, assess a notably coordinated EU response, and make sense of a stunning shift in German policy.   We then switch attention to the UK, where questions at the heart of the IfG's mission – how good governments function, how to strengthen institutions, and how to ensure politicians follow the rules and are held to account – look more relevant than ever. Two new IfG reports set out what can be done to reform and strengthen the civil service.     “Other than some kind of major event in Russia, it is hard to see a route of this that isn't incredibly depressing” - Catherine Haddon   “The threat that Putin could put his missiles on an even higher standing of readiness is hanging over this” – Bronwen Maddox   “It is absolutely incredible what we are seeing happen in Germany. You have a government that is giving way completely to radical new policy” – Georgina Wright   “We saw how difficult it was to leave the EU. It's just as difficult to join. Can the EU realistically grant Ukraine, a country at war, candidate status?” – Georgina Wright   “Confused accountability undermines the civil service's confidence. Bolstering its legitimacy will help bolster its confidence and authority inside government” – Alex Thomas   Presented by Bronwen Maddox with Alex Thomas, Cath Haddon, and guest Georgina Wright.   Produced by Candice McKenzie for the Institute for Government in association with Podmasters.

This episode looks at the potential impact of the French EU Council Presidency on the bloc's China policy. We also delve into French China policy and wage a look ahead on what the outcome of the upcoming French presidential elections in April 2022 could mean for the country's engagement with China. To discuss these issues, we are joined by François Godement, a Senior Advisor for Asia at the Institut Montaigne in Paris, Non-resident Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, D.C., as well as an external consultant for the Policy Planning Staff of the French Ministry for Europe and International Affairs. In the past, François headed ECFR's Asia and China programme and lectured at Sciences Po and France's National Institute of Oriental Languages and Civilizations (INALCO). 

What does French President Emmanuel Macron mean when he says that Europeans should work on proposals to build a new security and stability order in Europe? These words are somewhat similar to those the West hears from Kremlin. But is there any connection? I talked to Georgina Wright, a Senior Fellow and Director of Institut Montaigne's Europe Program. We talked about Paris-Moscow relations, what will France do in case of Russian invasion against Ukraine but also about what kind of role can Russian issue play in the upcoming presidential election. Listen to our conversation: Russia crisis and European security: A view from France. --- Send in a voice message: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/andrej-matisak/message

Mathieu Duchâtel and Pranay Kotasthane discuss the merits and demerits of government subsidies for building domestic semiconductor industries. Mathieu is director of the Asia Program at Institut Montaigne, Paris. His current research is focused on the European Union's policy on semiconductors. Follow Mathieu on Twitter: https://twitter.com/mtdtlCheck out our courses: https://school.takshashila.org.in/You can listen to this show and other awesome shows on the new and improved IVM Podcast App on Android: https://ivm.today/android or iOS: https://ivm.today/iosYou can check out our website at https://www.ivmpodcasts.com

What is Macron's grand strategy? As the 2022 French presidential election approaches, I interviewed Michel Duclos, Special Advisor for Geopolitics at the Institut Montaigne and former French Ambassador to Syria and Switzerland, for this week's #BritainDebrief for the Atlantic Council. The interview draws on his new book "France in Global Upheaval." How is Macron a reaction to his predecessors? How has Macron approached the neo-authoritarians? Has their been a militarization of French foreign policy? How successful has Macron been on pushing for European strategic autonomy? How does Macron view Britain and the United States?

Can Britain and France get on? How does the French establishment feel about UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson? Which of France's main foreign policy objectives currently match those of the UK? Does Brexit still cast a shadow of UK-European relations? To get a broader perspective, I interviewed Georgina Wright, a Senior Fellow and Director of the Paris-based Institut Montaigne's Europe Center for this week's #BritainDebrief for the Atlantic Council.  Why did Boris Johnson and Emmanuel Macron's relationship deteriorate so much? Could track II negotiations between the UK and France be the first step in mending their relations?

France, as an Indo-Pacific power, plays a unique role in EU discussions on engagement with the region. Paris' security-minded approach to the Indo-Pacific region distinguishes it from other European capitals. But, as AUKUS controversy shows, France's ambitions in the region are being challenged, as its partners prioritize capabilities to respond to China's growing military prowess over relations with Paris. The resulting Franco-American tensions have implications for all EU member states and some of them are concerned.In this episode, we talk with Mathieu Duchâtel, Director of the Asia Program at Institut Montaigne, and one of the leading voices in China debates in France.The conversation covers France's ambitions in the Indo-Pacific, the dynamics of Franco-Chinese interactions in the region, the AUKUS debacle and China topics in light of the upcoming French EU presidency.---If you are interested in our research on EU-China topics why not subscribe to our biweekly MERICS Europe China 360° Brief?

For the fifth episode in the Inside Europe series, Damian Collins MP speaks with Theophile Lenoir of Institut Montaigne and Rudy Reichstadt founder of ConspiracyWatch.info to discuss the state of democracy in France and how political parties are taking advantage of the spread of disinformation.

Government ministers have been blowing hot and cold about vaccine passports. Now the Westminster government says it is not planning to introduce them to England, though they're being kept as an option should things change. The Welsh government is thinking about them, while Northern Ireland has rejected them for now. In Scotland vaccine passports are coming in on October 1st for nightclubs and large venues. But booster jabs are coming across the UK. The roll-out for over-50s, frontline health workers and vulnerable groups will begin in days. Joining David Aaronovitch to ask if we need vaccine passports and boosters are:Laure Millet, head of the healthcare policy programme at the Institut Montaigne in Paris Melinda Mills, Professor of Demography at the University of Oxford and Director of the Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science Azra Ghani, Professor of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London Natasha Loder, Health Policy Editor at The EconomistProducers: John Murphy, Kirsteen Knight, Soila Apparicio Editor: Jasper Corbett