Lusk Perspectives

Jerrold D. Green (Research Professor, USC Annenberg and President & CEO, Pacific Council on International Policy) joins Richard K. Green (Director, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate) to discuss a short list of global hotspots from a United States perspective. Green delivers insights and offers detailed context on Israel-Gaza, China, Mexico, Ukraine-Russia, and the unique position the US holds within the global economy and international relations. More: http://lusk.usc.edu/perspectives

How will the US economy perform in 2024? Claudia Sahm (Founder, Sahm Consulting) joins Richard K. Green (Director, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate) to discuss the US economy's recovery from COVID along with additional shocks and infer the implications of the Federal Reserve's playbook for 2024. Sahm's key points: - The US economy undeniably turned a corner in 2023 - The US recovery remains stronger than its peer countries - The Federal Reserve will continue their conservative approach to rate cuts - The greatest risk to the market in the near future is the Federal Reserve's sluggish response Sahm also fields questions on the risk that commercial real estate and regional bank distress poses to the economy, the Federal Reserve's limits on impacting housing affordability, and more. More: https://lusk.usc.edu/perspectives

Clayton Dube (Director, USC U.S.-China Institute) joins Richard K. Green (Director, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate) to discuss the condition of U.S.-China relations and the latest developments in China's global influence on trade, supply chain issues, technology, and more. Dube highlights a challenge Chinese officials are watching closely in the coming years: stalling economic growth. To approach the “middle-income” problem, Dube notes the ways in which the government has both relaxed and tightened its grip on markets in an effort to continue the economy's upward momentum.   Included in the discussion: Security concerns between the U.S. and China The important distinction between China's total Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and GDP per capita How China's tech rivalry with the U.S. is evolving Why Chinese firms have overpaid in key U.S. real estate transactions   More: https://lusk.usc.edu/perspectives

Joyce Chang (Managing Director & Chair of Global Research, JPMorgan Chase & Co.) delivers an overview of global economic trends to watch heading into 2023 and beyond. In the near term, Chang sees a mild recession taking effect in late 2023, with a true “soft landing”, as identified by the Federal Reserve, being unlikely. She notes that overall cycles may be shorter, with a likelihood of 4-year recessions rather than the historic 8 or 10, and markets that rally faster to regain losses. Included in the long-term outlook are remarks on China's slowing growth, regions that could benefit from supply chain shifts away from China and nearshoring, and the political divides in the US around ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance) projects and investing. Richard K. Green (Director, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate) also fields questions on the US housing crisis, how rapidly rising interest rates could affect regional banks and nontraditional finance, the implications of a global aging population, and more. Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 01:48 Presentation 41:08 Q+A   More: https://lusk.usc.edu/perspectives

Lusk Director Richard K. Green delivers highlights from the 2022 Casden Multifamily Forecast. Before Green gives a breakdown of Southern California multifamily real estate markets, he pauses to discuss four uncertainties impacting the region. Inflation, interest rates, net migration, and the impending recession are all top-of-mind issues that could dilute the forecast's potency should any of the factors take a dramatic rise or dip. As for the forecast, Green reviews historical and forecasted data on each market, including overall economic resiliency, net migration since the pandemic began, construction activity, vacancy rates, rent growth, and more. Regions covered include Los Angeles, Orange County, San Diego, the Inland Empire, and Ventura. More: https://lusk.usc.edu/perspectives

An industry panel discusses the changing dynamics of office work in real estate and beyond. By now, it's apparent that some version of remote work is here to stay for a dominant number of firms. Remote and hybrid work can solve serious employee issues like flexibility, commute times, and even productivity. However, the new work arrangements are not without drawbacks. Moderator Mary Lynne Boorn (Associate Professor, USC Sol Price School of Public Policy) invites Allison Lynch (Compass Ventures), Amalia Paliobeis (Senior Director, Portfolio Management, AvantStay), and Brandi Popovich (Vice President, Talent Acquisition, SoLa Impact) to bring insights from their unique perspective on hiring and retention, adaptive management styles, office space, and to discuss lessons learned in distributed work environments. Included in the discussion: - The new costs of mandating an entirely in-person work week - How remote environments impact mentorship - Crucial in-person activities for employees and employers - Strategies for preserving company culture   Links to mentioned resources: The Work/Life Integration Project - http://worklife.wharton.upenn.edu/   More: https://lusk.usc.edu/perspectives

Racial bias in home appraisals and assessments is not just an anecdote. Norm Miller (Hahn Chair & Professor of Real Estate Finance, University of San Diego and Vice President, Homer Hoyt Institute), Ruchi Singh (Assistant Professor, University of Georgia), and Richard K. Green (Director, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate) discuss the statistically significant racial and ethnic biases in appraisals and tax assessments. Miller details the benefits of automated valuation models, but he also cautions that using machine learning without human oversight of variables can result in a different set of biases. Singh shows how assessments are regressive, often resulting in a mismatch of a lower property value with higher property taxes. She also points out contributing factors, including why excluding information like nearby schools or the condition of the home can set the assessments in opposition to appraisals.   More from the discussion: How to make the assessment process fairer The importance of loan-to-value ratios in underwriting Pressure appraisers face in avoiding errors Why short-term and long-term appraisal models will be required to avoid bias   Relevant links: New York Times Story: Home Appraised With a Black Owner: $472,000. With a White Owner: $750,000. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/18/realestate/housing-discrimination-maryland.html   Freddie Mac: Racial and Ethnic Valuation Gaps In Home Purchase Appraisals https://www.freddiemac.com/research/insight/20210920-home-appraisals   William Sprigg's Perspective: https://lusk.usc.edu/events/racial-justice-and-economics-crucial-pairing   Freddie Mac's Appraisal Institute Diversity Initiative: https://www.appraisalinstitute.org/the-appraisal-profession/appraiser-diversity-initiative/   More: https://lusk.usc.edu/perspectives

Industry practitioners in lending and policy discuss the research and recommendations in the recently released paper “ADU Construction Financing: Opportunities to Expand Access for Homeowners.” The joint paper, produced by the UC Berkeley Terner Center for Housing Innovation and the USC Lusk Center for Real Estate, compiles national data and stakeholder interviews to provide a picture of the hurtles to financing and what barriers could be removed to bring ADU construction to scale.   Included in the discussion: Recent updates to Freddie Mac's ADU policies How friction during financing curtails homeowner commitment Appraisal gaps in accurately assessing ADU value The role contractors play in mitigating financial risk The importance of targeted consumer protections as more data emerges Paper Link: https://lusk.usc.edu/adu-construction-financing-opportunities-expand-access-homeowners   Introduction and Sponsor Remarks: Richard K. Green (Director, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate) Amy Anderson (Senior Vice President, Wells Fargo Foundation) Racheal Meiers (National Leader, Economic Opportunity, Kaiser Permanente)   Federal Context: Erika Poethig (Special Assistant to the President for Housing and Urban Policy, The White House Domestic Policy Council) Diane Slemmer (Single Family Affordable Lending Manager, Freddie Mac)   Panel Discussion: Ben Metcalf (Managing Director, UC Berkeley Terner Center for Housing Innovation) Meredith Stowers (Branch Business Development Manager, Cross Country Mortgage, LLC) Susan Geddes Brown (Chief Executive Officer, Core SGB, LLC) Samar Jha (Government Affairs Director, AARP)   More: https://lusk.usc.edu/perspectives

Richard Green (Director, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate) delivers a presentation on how the ongoing conflict in Ukraine could impact the global economic trajectory as many countries, including the United States, attempt to cool inflation without triggering a recession. Green dives into more specific factors contributing to the USA's resiliency or vulnerability to global economic shocks. He shares data on why Cap Rates are likely to increase in the future, the trends economists look for with the revitalization of goods and services spending, how real estate impacts inflation, and which US states boast more robust infrastructure to weather any potential global economic downturns. Green also fields questions on affordable housing, the global aging workforce, commercial mortgage rates, and more.

Austin Beutner (Founder and Chair, Vision to Learn) joins Richard Green (Director, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate) for a discussion on what it takes to accomplish real change in Los Angeles.    Beutner asserts that the twin forces of leadership and governance have the power to solve many of the ongoing and intensifying issues in the county like homelessness, education, and land use. As Superintendent of LAUSD during the pandemic, Beutner oversaw unprecedented responses like providing free food for the community, securing broadband internet access and devices for students in need, and providing reliable and cost-effective COVID testing for the nation's second-largest school district. Other school districts in 40 states across the country adopted the models LAUSD pioneered to meet their own community needs. With that crisis response as the groundwork, Green and Beutner cover such topics as the inherent limits to the Los Angeles mayoral office, what structures hold back the capacity for LA County to respond effectively, and Beutner's latest project: a ballot initiative to bring the arts to all schools in California, Vote Arts and Minds. More: https://lusk.usc.edu/perspectives

Dana Goldman (Dean, USC Sol Price School of Public Policy) joins Richard K. Green (Director, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate) to provide a look into how the economics of health care contribute to decisions about health policy and the strides that medicine is still making to close gaps in access to care. Pulling from a variety of case studies, Dean Goldman shows why markets don't always work in providing the most cost-efficient care, the economic balance between encouraging innovators and ensuring affordability, and the different ways policymakers and patients determine the value of health. Green and Goldman discuss the evolution of treatments for end-of-life care and the risk of relying solely on philanthropy or intrinsically motivated actors to drive innovation. Goldman also provides potential alternatives to the current system to increase healthcare access and keep medical science moving forward. More: https://lusk.usc.edu/perspectives

Claudia Sahm (Director, Macroeconomic Research, Jain Family Institute) joins Richard K. Green (Director, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate) to look at the US Economy and how the Federal Reserve is responding to inflation, unemployment, and interest rates. Sahm cites that the big picture points to economic recovery, especially while the Fed incorporates the principle lesson of the 2008-2009 financial crisis: remove support gradually or risk a stalled recovery. With appointments incoming, Sahm forecasts that the new and historically diverse Board of Governors will continue to press the Federal Reserve's dual mandate of stable prices and maximum employment. Crucially, Sahm emphasizes that without an end to the pandemic, the economic tides can only change so much, with or without federal intervention. More: https://lusk.usc.edu/perspectives

Richard K. Green (Director, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate) highlights data and analysis from the 201 Casden Multifamily Forecast Report. Before Green dives into forecasted rent, vacancies, and deliveries for Los Angeles, Inland Empire, Orange County, San Diego and Ventura submarkets, he offers an economic context for where Southern California stands. In the context discussion, Green delivers insights into what's happening with the supply chain in the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, why cap rates are so low, and how unemployment and total employment impact the delivery of goods, including multifamily construction. More: https://lusk.usc.edu/perspectives

Richard K. Green (Director, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate) moderates a discussion on the growing opportunities PropTech brings to the real estate industry. Travis Putnam (Founder and Managing Partner, Navitas Capital) provides perspective on the overall momentum of venture capital in the space while Ashley Colella (Senior Product Manager, HqO) and Tyler Scriven (Founder and CEO, Saltbox) offer on-the-ground applications to some of the ways that technology is improving the relationship between property owners and tenants, the increasing role of logistics, and the importance of sorting data into actionable insights. More: https://lusk.usc.edu/perspectives

Rachel Elias Wein (Founder & Chief Executive Officer, Wein Plus) joins Richard K. Green (Director, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate) to discuss the retail sectors returning as states continue to reopen and vaccine rates climb. Wein traces the pandemic's impact on retail, including growth in grocery delivery, pet stores, and ecommerce as well as areas that struggled like malls and mid-sized brands. As for the future of retail, Wein notes that an overall decrease in restaurant sales towards lower-cost grocery foods puts more cash in the average consumer's pocket, which may open an opportunity for post-pandemic spending in retail, hospitality, and travel.   Green and Wein discuss how work-from-home will impact retail, particularly weekday spending habits in urban and office hubs as an estimated 20% of the average work week (one day per week) may take place from home. Additionally, they also cover how an aging population's spending habits may favor geographic regions, the feasibility of transitioning customer-based retail locations to more industrial-style fulfillment centers, and how the ubiquity of malls will continue to decline.   More: https://lusk.usc.edu/perspectives

Richard K. Green (Director, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate) delivers new data from the Casden Spring 2021 Multifamily Forecast Report. Despite outmigration, California housing prices are still climbing, indicating that the state remains a desirable destination for many. However, California's lack of multifamily housing production remains concerning as sunbelt states with more robust construction pipelines like Texas, Arizona, and Nevada continue to siphon off California residents. Green also asserts that Southern California submarkets will largely be influenced not by whether workers return to the office, but by how often.   Panelists Paul M. Keller (Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Mack Urban) and Tony M. Salazar (President, West Coast Division, McCormack Baron Salazar, Inc.) echo the data with anecdotal evidence from inside the industry. Salazar points out that affordable housing subsidies are offered as a flat rate across the US, and as a result those funds continue to go further in markets where housing production is less expensive. Keller remains skeptical about how the state may change and expects more of the same challenges in the future.

Neha Nanda, MD (Medical Director of Infection Prevention and Antimicrobial Stewardship, Keck Medicine of USC) is joined by Scott B. Laurie (President and Chief Executive Officer, The Olson Company) and Richard K. Green (Director, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate) to discuss the ongoing recovery efforts from COVID-19, how organizations might manage returning to the office, and when everyday life has a chance of achieving a new normal. Nanda also reviews rules of thumb for mask-wearing as well as what vaccine hesitancy may mean for California's herd immunity.   More: https://lusk.usc.edu/perspectives

The State of California’s Legislative Analyst’s Office (LAO) estimated that 70,000-110,000 new housing units are needed per year to keep housing prices from rising faster than the national average. What are the most important barriers to new housing construction and what can be done about them?   Scholars Evgeny Burinskiy (Ph.D. in Urban Planning and Development, USC Price), Lois Takahashi (Houston Flournoy Professor of State Government and Director, USC Price in Sacramento), and Richard Green (Director, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate) gather with industry experts Bert Selva (President and Chief Executive Officer, Shea Homes) and Dan Dunmoyer (President and Chief Executive Officer, California Building Industry Association) to discuss results from a new survey of California homebuilders, planning commissioners, and housing advocates.   The survey, supported by a grant from the California Homebuilding Foundation, highlights the differences in perceptions stakeholders have about the development review process. Overall, each stakeholder group universally sees both traffic congestion and affordable housing as a crucial hurdle to overcome as California grows.   More: https://lusk.usc.edu/perspectives

Claudia Sahm (Senior Fellow, Jain Family Institute) joins Richard K. Green (Director, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate) to outline the changes in economic policy as the Federal Reserve and Congress have reacted to the COVID-19 pandemic. Sahm, who was inside the Federal Reserve during the Great Recession and recovery, has since devised the Sahm Rule Recession Indicator to help policymakers and economists determine the start of a recession based on unemployment rates.   Sahm points out that economic policy has new goals, new tools are being considered, and change will come with growing pains. As for new goals, Sahm sees interest in concepts like full employment, reducing inequality, and acknowledging racism as harbingers of a new school of thought, and one that is less skittish about inflation as the Fed works to build momentum in economic downturns. The new tools and approaches like the child benefit cash transfers in the latest stimulus package display a shift towards providing direct aid, rather than commonly used tax incentives or other targeted programs. Sahm also acknowledges that change means pain while data catches up to policy for the simple reason that some benefits or programs have never before been attempted in the US.   More: https://lusk.usc.edu/perspectives

Originally recorded for “The Bigger Picture” podcast by the USC Bedrosian Center with host Oliva Olson. Falling is the number one cause of injury and the seventh leading cause of death in adults ages 65 and older. In the newly published “Breaking Down Silos to Improve the Health of Older Adults,” Richard Green (Director, USC Lusk Center), Patricia Harris (MD and Geriatric Medicine Specialist, UCLA Health), and Anthony Orlando (Assistant Professor in the Finance, Real Estate, and Law Department, California State Polytechnic University and USC Bedrosian Center Faculty Affiliate) make the case for Medicare coverage of home safety renovations to minimize injurious falls. Olivia Olson speaks with the authors about their recent paper and the changes they hope to see in Medicare coverage.   The Bigger Picture:  https://bedrosian.usc.edu/category/bigpicture/   Lusk Perspectives:  https://lusk.usc.edu/perspectives

Lois Takahashi (Houston Flournoy Professor of State Government and Director, USC Price in Sacramento) moderates a panel of public and private stakeholders on the roadblocks and success stories of rebuilding housing after fire in California, including Dave Sanson (CEO, DeNova Homes), Geoffrey Ross (Deputy Director, Financial Assistance -- Federal Programs, California Department of Housing and Community Development) and Dan Dunmoyer (President and CEO, California Building Industry Association). As California currently has a housing crisis due in part to the difficulties of constructing new and large-scale housing in the state, the panel concludes that rebuilding communities impacted by natural disaster remains a challenging process. Sanson points out that though most communities lack the resources to act quickly in rebuilding that requires federal support, a dissonance of unity via local control and NIMBYism also can hamper rebuilding efforts. Ross acknowledges that the federal system is not yet attuned to the unique needs of responding to fire, having focused for some time on flood, tornado, or hurricane relief. Though the question “should we rebuild” in fire-affected areas deserves examining, Dunmoyer identifies that homebuilding is not immune to natural disaster anywhere in California or even the US and emphasizes safe and smart building as a responsible solution. More: https://lusk.usc.edu/perspectives

Though the end of the pandemic may seem in sight, many questions remain regarding which trends of the past year are permanent. Edward Glaeser (Fred and Eleanor Glimp Professor of Economics, Faculty of Arts and Sciences, Harvard University) and Richard Florida (Professor, School of Cities and Rotman School of Management, University of Toronto and Co-Founder and Senior Editor, Bloomberg CityLab) join Richard Peiser (Michael D. Spear Professor of Real Estate Development, Harvard University) and Richard Green (Director, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate) to confer on the potential outcomes for land use in the US. While both Glaeser and Florida agree that cities at large will return to full strength and influence, they also see individual cities as vulnerable. Regarding office work, Glaeser cites studies that indicate maintaining office culture via remote channels performs well, but growing a company remotely brings significant challenges for both management and employee advancement. Florida sees shifts towards remote and remote-flexible work as a potential revolution in the real estate industry, particularly as amenity-rich smaller cities have an opportunity to build hubs using compact urban models similar to the 15-minute city. More: https://lusk.usc.edu/perspectives  Record date: 2/25/21

Brad Hargreaves (Founder and CEO, Common) joins Richard Green (Director, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate) to discuss how COVID-19 has impacted product typologies of co-living and the role tech plays in managing multifamily properties.   As it varies across the industry, Hargreaves lays out Common’s definition of co-living that distinguishes itself from visions of student housing or roommate matching and management. While co-living makes up a portion of Common’s management portfolio, Hargreaves sees the lowest hanging fruit for most property managers as basic tech upgrades to increase efficiency and centralize efforts like sales, marketing, and leasing to better and more quickly serve tenants. Green fields questions on which cities seem to be making big wins from the increased adoption of remote work, how renters making choices virtually will persist after the pandemic subsides, and what co-living financing really looks like to lenders and borrowers.   More: https://lusk.usc.edu/perspectives

William A. Witte (CEO, Related California and Chair, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate) and Nadine Watt (CEO, Watt Companies and Vice Chair, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate) joins Richard Green (Director, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate), to discuss their perspective on the broad trends and challenges facing real estate and urban economics in 2021. The leadership offers viewpoints on California outmigration, how rents are changing in unexpected ways as consumers respond to COVID, and the potential growth (and pitfalls) that remain for Southern California infrastructure. The Lusk Chair and Vice Chair insist that capital availability continues, meanwhile the industry as a whole continues to maintain a “wait and see” strategy to accurately assess how COVID and consumer trends have impacted product types and financial feasibility in the long term. More talks and resources: https://lusk.usc.edu/perspectives

Dana Goldman (Interim Dean, Price School of Public Policy and Director, USC Schaeffer Center) hosts Richard Green (Director, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate) and Thomas Mitchell (Macarthur Fellow and Co-Director, Program in Real Estate and Community Development Law, Texas A&M) in a conversation about Mitchell’s work on attempting to rectify the many ways that Black and other disadvantaged American families are deprived of their real estate wealth. Upon the passing of a land-owning family member without a designated will, a great many properties of Black Americans passed property to multiple interest-owning heirs. Often called an “heirs property” or “tenancy in common”, this arrangement makes the estate easy to enter into a forced sale where the property sells for a fraction of its value. Affecting both rural and urban disadvantaged populations, Mitchell’s work has spearheaded both legal and legislative reforms in several states to help alleviate forced sales of a family’s vital source of generational wealth.

Rodney Ramcharan (Professor of Finance and Business Economics, Marshall School of Business) joins Richard K. Green (Director, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate) to look back at 2009 and the quantitative easing used to inject money into the US economy during the financial crisis. Ramcharan shows that the effects of government intervention in the economy can last a long time, up to six years, with refinance activity providing a key indicator for a business’s future health. Green and Ramcharan discuss how the data gathered since 2009 could inform monetary policy as the effects of the pandemic continue, as well as the varying viewpoints economists have had over the years about the debt ceiling. More: https://lusk.usc.edu/perspectives

An excerpt panel from the Casden 2020 State of the Market conference. John W. Loper (Associate Professor, USC Sol Price School of Public Policy) hosts a discussion with industry practitioners George Koiso, MAI (Director, Los Angeles Multifamily Practice Leader, CBRE Valuation & Advisory Services), Jaime Lee (Chief Executive Officer, Jamison Realty, Inc.), and John Pawlowski (Senior Analyst, Residential, Greenstreet Advisors) on how valuation works today as COVID continues to influence the market in unexpected ways. The panel dives into their perspectives and observations on current trends in Net Operating Income, occupancy, and collections as well as how underwriting and financing is changing with Federal stimulus dollars available.

Sean Armstrong (Managing Principal, Westport Capital LLC) joins Richard Green (Director, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate) to discuss highlights from his career, his views on acquiring distressed debt, and how COVID could impact the industry. Though the K-shaped recovery will likely be a general trend going forward, Armstrong sees the recovery playing out in very focused markets with multiple intersecting factors including region, product type, COVID progress, and consumer behavior. Green asks questions about Armstrong’s process on looking for opportunities, where he has made mistakes in the past, and what options remain for regional malls in decline.

Richard Green (Director, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate) is joined by Michael Lens (Associate Professor of Urban Planning and Public Policy, UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs), Michael Manville (Associate Professor of Urban Planning, UCLA Luskin), and Paavo Monkkonen (Associate Professor of Urban Planning and Public Policy, UCLA Luskin) to discuss their joint study on renter distress during the COVID-19 crisis. Among its many findings, the study illustrates that though many households are making rent payments, tenants may be using other means of credit or cutting basic needs spending to do so.

Roy March (CEO, Eastdil Secured) discusses the ins and outs of Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS) with Richard Green (Director, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate). Starting with the history of how CMBS was born out of the Savings and Loan Crisis in the late 1980s and how it gained ground after the 2008 crisis by providing much-needed liquidity, the conversation covers a wide range of the market. March offers insights and observations on how a global aging population focused on long-term saving impacts interest rates, how valuation and refinancing is changing since COVID-19, and what changes have been made in governance to provide more flexibility on loan terms. March also takes a moment to address the shortcomings of the homelessness and housing crisis, particularly in Southern California.

Radio host and fourth-generation Angeleno Larry Mantle and policy experts Gary Painter and Richard Green provide an overview of CA Proposition 21 followed by a discussion on their opposing views of supporting or opposing the initiative for local rent control. If approved, it allows local governments to establish rent control on residential properties that have been occupied for over 15 years. Additionally, it allows landlords who own no more than two homes to exempt themselves from such policies. Relevant to the discussion is the 1995 Costa–Hawkins Rental Housing Act, which Prop 21 would repeal some of the provisions in the act.

Larry Mantle (Host, AirTalk, KPCC) hosts a discussion regarding California Proposition 15. If passed on November 3rd, this will generate an estimated $6.5 billion to $11.5 billion annually for local governments and K-14 public education by creating a "split roll" property tax system that increases taxes on large commercial properties by taxing them at market value, without changing the assessed valuation process for other properties. Richard Green (Director, USC Lusk Center) briefly introduces the talk while Manuel Pastor (Director, USC Dornsife Equity Research Institute) and Rex Hime (President and CEO, California Business Properties Association) discuss what the ramifications of this proposition could be for California business, local municipalities, and education.

Diane Swonk (Chief Economist, Grant Thornton) discusses where we’ve been and possibly where we’re going as the economy braces for more impacts from COVID-19 with Richard Green (Director, USC Lusk Center). Tracing the line back from January 2020 to the Fall, she overlays her concerns about COVID’s long term impacts on Millennials, Gen Z, Women in the workforce, and the ever-widening gaps in racial disparities. Green offers supporting evidence as well as questions regarding how the supply chain might change. Swonk insists throughout that the course of the virus is the course of the economy regardless of government intervention. For more talks and insights, visit https://lusk.usc.edu/perspectives

Laurie Goodman (Co-Director, Housing and Finance Policy, Urban Institute) sits down with Richard Green (Director, USC Lusk Center) to discuss all things mortgage market including her success and key takeaways from analyzing asset classes in the 2008-2009 financial crisis, how she and her team created the housing credit availability index, the impact of both Dodd-Frank legislation and COVID-19 on the mortgage market. Additionally, Goodman offers data-based observations on credit evaluation flaws and how that widens the black-white homeownership gap.

Amy Cutts (President, AC Cutts and Associates LLC) details how credit scores are built, what factors and variables may contribute to how they are evaluated, how credit scores from FICO and others have evolved, and the limits to the formulas and data used in building the models that provide credit scoring. Richard Green (USC Lusk Center for Real Estate) asks questions about how debts differentiate in the calculations, the issues with using outdated FICO scoring models, and what can be done regarding social disparities created by flaws in credit scoring.

Nela Richardson (Principal, Investment Strategist, Edward Jones) outlines the factors to consider in determining investment strategy and evaluating the economic outlook as the US continues to navigate impacts from COVID-19. Richardson covers how management of COVID-19 will shape the recovery, the shape of the overall recession, how past and likely future government stimuli help bridge gaps, and what a long-term growth perspective can do for resilient investing. Richard Green (Director, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate) asks questions regarding how bonds have changed; the fate of office space and brick-and-mortar retail; whether the latest corporate commitments to diversity, inclusion, and anti-racism will follow through on their promises; what businesses might move as a result of lockdowns; and more.

Lois Takahashi (USC Price Sacramento) moderates a discussion on how COVID-19 is impacting state and local budgets with Tracy Gordon (Urban Institute) and Carolyn Coleman (League of California Cities). Gordon outlines the nationwide declines in revenue are dramatic and could take up to 10 years for unemployment to fully recover. Coleman’s focus on the local picture illustrates that across the board, cities of all sizes are coming up against a variety of shortfalls in revenue and likely reductions in services. Richard Green (USC Lusk Center) fields questions alongside Takahashi regarding how online retail is impacting tax revenue, how inequities are increasing during the pandemic, and the opportunities that this massive fiscal and social shakeup may provide.

William Spriggs, Professor in, and Former Chair of, the Department of Economics at Howard University and Chief Economist for AFL-CIO Richard Green, Director and Chair of the USC Lusk Center for Real Estate and Chair of the Department of Real Estate Development Dana Goldman, Interim Dean, USC Sol Price School of Public Policy and Leonard D. Schaeffer Director’s Chair, USC Schaeffer Center The USC Sol Price School of Public Policy presents virtual events that examine timely public policy and development topics. Events are broadcast live over Zoom. A selection of recordings are available on our YouTube channel for viewing after events have passed. Watch the most recent talks below, and visit the event playlists to explore past events. The USC Price School is committed to providing relevant information on critical subjects that matter to us, and we look forward to continuing virtual programming that brings us together during these remote times.

Bonnie M. Wongtrakool (Global Head of ESG Investments, Portfolio Manager, Western Asset Management) discusses the state and the future of ESG (environmental, social, governance) investments with Richard Green (Director, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate). Wongtrakool delivers relevant definitions of ESG, how ESG factors can determine long-term sustainability and viability of an organization or fund, and what trends are driving ESG growth. Green follows up with questions on what makes green buildings more financially resilient, red flags in organizational governance, and what it will take to truly diversity the finance industry.

Rick Holliday (CEO, Co-Founder, Factory OS), Janet Stephenson (Head of Building Platform Sales, Katerra), and Lucio Soibelman (Chair, USC Astani Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering) join host Mary Lynne Boorn (Associate Professor, USC Price) in a discussion on changing typologies and construction innovation in housing. The panel brings experience and insight on shipping constraints, misconceptions of manufactured housing, education for builders and stakeholders, and how construction technology will aid human laborers, not replace them.

Lusk Chairman Emile Haddad (CEO, Five Point Holdings) and Vice Chairman William A. Witte (CEO, Related California) join Richard Green (Director, Lusk Center for Real Estate) in a fireside chat covering a broad range of topics. The seasoned CEOs deliver insights on how COVID-19 has impacted their business and accelerated industry trends, what habits will stay in the adoption of remote work, the importance of a renewed focus on equity and inclusion in the real estate industry for both developers and stakeholders, and more.

Christopher Mayer (Co-Director, Paul Milstein Center for Real Estate, Columbia Business School) sits down with Richard Green (Director, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate) to deliver a presentation detailing how real estate valuation is changing, especially in relation to the economy as a whole, and what the near and long-term future of cities may be. Though there is much to be concerned about regarding rent collections and mortgages, Mayer points out that the key to real estate valuation is estimating the new price level at the end of the recession. Mayer sees that larger cities will face big challenges, but large companies and young workers seem to be betting on the cultural payoff of urban density.

Bird Anderson (Executive Vice President, Homebuilder Banking, Well Fargo Commercial Real Estate) provides updates and observations on the state of the current commercial real estate and homebuilding market. Anderson points out that despite record high unemployment, the market is strong, owing in part to the confidence buyers have that remote work will continue to play a major role in the work week. Builders may be cautiously optimistic, but Anderson insists no one anticipates current trends continuing in the long term. Richard Green (Director, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate) fields questions about how builders are preparing for 2021, construction costs, and how foreign buyers are influencing the California market.

Colin Barrow (Investment Manager, former Leader of Westminster Council) sits down with Richard Green (Director, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate) to detail the state of affairs in Europe as both Great Britain and the European Union begin to navigate into COVID-19 recovery. Barrow points out that though GDP (Gross Domestic Product) has dropped considerably, businesses continue to float due to government intervention. Richard Green asks questions about the European outlook on state-run relief policies, increasing supply chain redundancies, and the long-term fiscal implications of governments paying back loans. Date Recorded: 7/7/20

Connie Chan (General Partner, Andreesen Horowitz) discusses how property technology, finance technology, and venture capital is impacting real estate during COVID-19 and beyond with Richard Green (Director, USC Lusk Center in Real Estate). They cover a broad range of topics including the long-term viability of virtual property sales, the difference between valuation and value, and if technology start-ups could ever disrupt real estate in the same way that travel was once impacted by drastically reducing the reliance on “brokers” or travel agents.

Darius Lakdawalla (Director of Research, USC Schaeffer Center) joins Richard Green (Director, Lusk Center for Real Estate) to outline the value for universal screening for COVID-19, as well as the cost benefits and practical approach to pooled testing applied in businesses and schools. Richard Green asks questions regarding the challenge of children adopting masks, how evolving information impacts the public, and what Lakdawalla’s criteria would be for his children returning to school.

David Brickman (CEO, Freddie Mac) joins Richard Green (Director, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate) to deliver analysis on the state of US single family housing, multi-family housing, and GSEs (Government Sponsored Enterprises). Brickman points out that while the economic contraction has been dramatic since the onset of COVID-19, the data suggests that the economy is recovering with the help of Federal intervention. Richard Green brings up questions regarding the difference in urban vs suburban markets, underwriting loans, and what rent strikes might mean for borrowers.

Torsten Sløk (Chief Economist, Deutsche Bank Securities) joins Richard Green (Director, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate) to outline the three different factors that play into the future of finance, including the virus curve flattening, financial markets stabilizing, and the ultimate shape of the economic recovery. Green offers questions concerning US and China relations, how foreign investment in American real estate might change, and the difference between the finance structure of Europe versus the US.

Mark Zandi (Moody’s Analyics) sits down with Richard Green about COVID-19’s impacts that are still to come. Green asks about Zandi’s views on office, retail, and housing real estate markets. Zandi and Green also share thoughts on how the supply chain might be reevaluated and modified, what employment trends the US is likely to see, and resilient cities in the near and long-term.

Industry leaders Lisa Reddy (Prologis), David Dollinger (Dollinger Properties), Stanley Iezman (American Realty Advisors), Rachel Elias Wein (WeinPlus) join Lusk Director Richard Green to provide analysis and updates and analysis on commercial retail, industrial, and office spaces.

Scott B. Laurie (President and CEO, The Olson Company) and Adrian Foley (President and COO, Brookfield Residential) join Richard Green (Director, USC Lusk Center) to discuss the state of the home building market, how COVID-19 has impacted the process of purchasing a new home, and how the industry is adapting to meet the needs of its customers. Richard Green fields questions about the software The Olson Company and Bookfield Residential have found helpful, what the CARES Act expiration date in July means for employment, and what long-term changes could be here to stay.