The Grumpy Strategists

Marcus and Michael go through the -sparse - highlights of Australia's election campaign from a defence perspective - the Coalition's policy release has shifted the defence permafrost on funding and capabilities, and added a note of required urgency. But polls show a collapse in Australians seeing the US as a reliable ally. They also show reluctance to raise defence spending. Meanwhile, in DC the DOGE chainsaw has bogged in the swamp and Pentagon savings are turning into Pentagon spending, just why isn't clear....Also available as a Grumpies YouTube video podcast.

This is the audio only version of the Grumpies' first video podcast. The full version is available on YouTube here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=le9t8gRT380

The Grumpy Strategists visit Trump tariffs' Ground Zero on Heard Island. While President Trump's shifting global moves are creating uncertainty about working with America, the good news is that Australian strategists & planners must have got everything about our world now right years ago, judging by the unchanging nature of Defence plans & budgets since the 2016 White Paper. The Grumpies end by noticing that the AUKUS subs will cost $500bn more than the cancelled French program, Xi Jinping's purges continue - & 5% GDP on defence is the new normal. No changes here.

Grumpy Strategist Marcus Hellyer talks with co-founder Peter Jennings in SAA's secure bunker deep in the Brindabella ranges. They discuss the puzzle of the Canberra consensus that Australia is in a much more dangerous world, sitting alongside the fact that Australia's government and its security agencies are then taking no useful steps to strengthen our security. Instead, Australia is stuck with a plan to create a small, perfectly formed Australian military - the Fantasy Force - sometime in the 2040s, to plug seamlessly into an American force structure - while not knowing if America even wants such a thing...They set out practical ways Australia's military can be strengthened over the next 1, 3 and 5 years.

Marcus and Michael explore the Government's confused position on disaster relief and the military. They assess the nuances in wombat-based pushback on US policies & set out the merits of the Government's emerging masterplan for tariff immunity. They outline various 'Plan B's for dealing with an unreliable or a more demanding America, canvass F-35 kill switches and the likely path for Defence in the March Budget.

Like Run DMC & Aerosmith's "Walk This Way" collaboration, except on.....defence stuff....Marcus & Michael join the AustDefMagazine crew to assess Defence officials' patient explanations of why everything they touch takes 10 years, minimum. Marcus reveals his previous career in standover work & organised crime as we assess Trump 2.0 6 weeks in. And we look at AUKUS' health and reason for living in the new world.With thanks to Pres Trump & the 3 PLA warships for highlighting the urgency of increasing Australia's military power quickly.

Recorded at the 2025 Australian Defence Magazine Congress, the Grumpies look at the world & ask so what? Oz is facing a national crisis due to events in the US, with Russia & Europe, & given disturbing scenarios for next steps here in the Indo Pacific. Damage to fundamental underpinnings of the decades long AUKUS project & the core of the Oz-US alliance are serious enough that alternative measures like hedging with others & increasing our own capacity are essential. But bipartisanship on Defence won't help - nor will throwing more cash at the broken department

The Grumpy Strategists apply science to the Australian government's early engagement with the Trump Administration. Insights from prey species threatened by a predator help. They look at Japan's approach to hedging against US risks and how this connects to the new frigate program & Australia. The episode ends going through the numbers on US Navy missile use in the Red Sea, and celebrating the ridiculous - ludicrous even - success that the latest numbers from Defence on exports indicate.

Marcus and Michael are back after a luxurious break to assess what Joe Biden ever did for us, what Trump 2.0 looks like as the rollercoaster starts, and what the unsleeping Australian Govt elves got up to over the Christmas period (these elves seem to be Bad Santa's little helpers). & we cover the Varghese review's approach to anyone providing alternative ideas to Canberra's Public Service mandarins - they'll be looked after as well as the Soviets cared for the Czar's children.

In Episode 30, Marcus and Michael look at what the numbers in Defence's Annual Report tell us about Defence's 'fasttracked' work on missiles, helicopters & ships. The numbers show systemic underachievement, not the generational, transformational change we hear so often from ministers & officials. Parents would be very unhappy with this report on their Defence child. But Houthi progress is impressive, as is the historic growth in senior Defence positions.

The Grumpy Strategists answer the call from Australia's Embassy in Washington. They search for meaning in Defence's new religious texts - the Strategic Review and Defence Strategy - amongst the snowstorm of other reviews, strategies & plans. The new Workforce Plan gets a makeover - it's now beige. A Senate Estimates satellite highlight gets airtime, while the Chief of Navy and Deputy Prime Minister Marles show their mettle.

With a fire in the UK's sub construction facility & US sub production slowing, the only good news is that predictions of delay are apparently ahead of schedule....Meanwhile, a new Guided Weapons plan establishes two things: 1. Deterrence by Documentation, given the heavy weight of paper Australia can now bring to bear on itself & its adversaries - and 2. a shed CAN take 8 years to announce & build,

The Grumpy Strategists analyse two big announcements - the $20bn Henderson shipbuilding precinct & a $7bn deal on missiles apparently wrangled by Delivery Minister Pat Conroy. They also get close to the bottom of the mysterious Offshore Patrol Vessel mystery, and come to terms with the digital world's new term of art: 'enshittification' and what lessons it holds about Australian Defence organisation outcomes. With thanks to The Little Black Book of Scams.

The Grumpy Strategists discuss what Acceleration means inside the walls of Australia's Defence organisation. Defence Science 'accelerates' - with a bold plan to deliver by 2034 what it had committed to deliver by 2030. Blackhawk helicopter deliveries accelerate by slowing down. And submarine & Hunter frigate cost spirals keep on keeping on. Good news - US consultancy spend is up on subs, our Aussie cash is helping out. Oh, & there's some Army chat too.

On the Grumpy Strategists' 1st birthday, Marcus and Michael assess the Army's new plan to get wet & find that the Army's focus is on its exquisite small force, with no plans for expansion during a war and with its new maritime strike mission yet to shift thinking from the traditional land battle role. And the Australian Sub Agency's new Corporate Plan is disturbingly full of circular logic but content free. That's bad for growing trust in the Agency to deliver, particularly when contrasted with the practical detail available on UK sub issues.

Marcus and Michael catch up on news about makin' missiles, assess whether the secret to change in Defence is a cashed up billionaire, andare bemused by the new 'Schedule is King' for everyone but Defence itself. They wrap up with F-35Bs, now that the Army is taking itself littorally.

SAA's Marcus Hellyer and Michael Shoebridge cover the Australian Army's tank gap, the Navy's celebration of missile test firings, and the fact free Frankenstein imagery on AUKUS subs out of Navy officials lately. The episode ends with animal-based analysis of the US elections and what the Trump-Vance or Harris-Walz options might mean for Australia.

Episode 1 of the Great Debates -on topics in Australia that need discussion but are reduced to shouting matches from inside closed bubbles. Green shirted Marcus is Mr Renewables and black suited Michael is the pro-nuclear Darth Vader of the episode. Listen to hear if a civil chat about radioactive waste, windfarms and Australia's energy mix is possible.

In Episode 22, Marcus and Michael discuss the US election & the alliance post debate and failed assassination, before covering Ukraine military assistance and the alternative realities in Australia's contribution to Ukraine and our own defence. The episode ends with the strange case of the alleged Russian signaller spy and the failed $160m vetting project that might have helped catch them earlier.....

SAA's Marcus Hellyer talks with Rob Kremer, Kinexus' Director and Defence Sector lead about defence industry prospects and pressures. Rob puts the workforce demands by Defence into a wider economic and societal perspective to set out effective strategies for government and companies. Australian cities have quite different skills concentrations and demographics that flavour the necessary approaches.

The Grumpy Strategists outline the structural consequences for the Air Force from the new permanent spend on ships & subs in the Defence budget. They cover another structural issue damaging Australia's security - the growing secrecy and lack of accountability of the Defence bureaucracy at a time of record spending. Disturbingly, a new Parliamentary committee that should help seems set to result in more secrecy & less public knowledge.

The Grumpy Strategists look at the emerging cult of AUKUS & its faith-based arrangements. They also set out who is going to win the US election using very dubious 'psycho social analysis' from Michael, and end discussing crawling, walking & running when it comes to human development & the comparatively stunted speed of development of Australia's domestic guided weapons enterprise.

The Grumpy Strategists set out practical ways that the plans for keeping Australia's Collins class subs operating might need to change to enable the AUKUS Virginia class subs to be brought into Australian service. They also set out the deep flaws in the new 'Safeguarding Australia's Military Secrets' law - a badly crafted bureaucrat's dream, but a disaster for anyone wanting a career after the military or service in Defence. We may have needed a permit for this episode to avoid jail. Under the new law, it's hard to tell.

Michael Shoebridge talks with Paddy Gregg, CEO of Austal, about the company's history as a builder of commercial and military vessels for decades now. We discuss its stocked up order book both here & in the US, and the future, including Australia's general purpose frigates. Austal USA is making command modules for US Virginia Class submarines and is the biggest revenue earner for Austal, while at Henderson, Austal is ramping up fast with landing craft orders. Hanwha's bid is covered, with Paddy giving his perspective as the CEO of a publicly-listed company.

In Episode 18, the Grumpy Strategists look at the challenges, contradictions and half truths the numbers in the 2024 Defence Budget reveal. The headline early $5.7 billion turns out not to turn up until mid-2027. Plans for acquisition are likely to fail because of unachievable targets, and the workforce crisis is worsening - meaning Australia's military just won't have the people it needs to operate what it buys. The episode ends with analysis of AUKUS sub crewing plans revealed by a US official. Spoiler alert: the Collins subs look like having an early end & Australian submariners are being 'utterly and completely' integrated into 25 US subs well before 2032.

In Episode 17, Marcus Hellyer and Michael Shoebridge assess the foundations of defence minister Richard Marles' new National Defence Strategy, looking for clarity and focus that the welter of priorities, tasks and categories doesn't provide. Instead of Australia's military having 'impactful projection', the cuts to missile defence make Australia a likely victim of 'impactful reception'. It turns out the strategy's accompanying $330bn investment program is budget, not strategy, driven.

The Grumpy Strategists assess the state of public decision and policy making in Australia: the damaging path of 'profound' and "transformative' policies that aren't; the distracting symbolic political value of AUKUS, with numbers so large - $368 billion - they make other large decisions look trivial - and the now alarming gap between rhetoric and reality.

From a small sporting shooting goods supplier in 1973, NIOA Group has grown to be a major munitions and weapons supplier to Australia's military and law enforcement organisations. Robert Nioa talks with SAA's Michael Shoebridge about the last 28 years building an Australian prime with industrial heft. They discuss how Australia's strategic environment and new partnerships like AUKUS provide the direction to NIOA's business, along with its deepening commercial connections into the US and with capable Australian and international partners.

The Grumpy Strategists cover US budget cuts from 2 to 1 sub in its 2025 budget, the UK Parliament's report on the UK's failing nuclear reactor program, with Australia choosing this moment to give the UK $4.6bn for AUKUS sub design & nuclear reactors, the US delay into the 2040s to its SSN(X) sub - and the black comedy (for Australians) from the French sub Australia paid $4bn to develop but then cancelled winning the Dutch submarine competition.

In 12 years, Adam Gilmour has grown Gilmour Space to be able to design and build its own space launch rockets, satellite buses to carry users' payloads & now is running his own space launch facility in Queensland. He talks about the business principles that let Gilmour Space thrive & move fast, and why sovereign launch and space capacity matters to Australia's security.

Grumpy Strategists Marcus Hellyer & Michael Shoebridge have waded through the Australian Government's new Defence Industrial Development Strategy's 114 pages so you don't have to. The news is bad - the strategy will undermine Australian companies essential to our military power and to operating our military during a time of conflict, while increasing Australia's dependence on big foreign firms who will struggle to meet their home governments' needs.

This new Grumpy Strategists series talks with makers & leaders in Australian industry who are key to our security. Tom Loveard, the Chief Technology Officer and one of the founders of C2 Robotics is our guest. He tells us how 25 years of hard work & research has given us the 'overnight breakthrough' that is the Speartooth long range undersea unmanned vehicle. It can be made in thousands & available well before 2030 - which would start to give the Australian military mass relevant to the huge Indo Pacific.

SAA's Grumpy Strategists review the Australian Government's "Enhanced Lethality Surface Combatant" Plan, which resurrects the 1990s habit of getting stuff 'fitted for but not with' key elements. It means new ships for a navy in desperate need of them, but creates more budget and personnel pressures for a defence organisation already dealing with unaffordable existing plans.

The Grumpy Strategists look at the escalating conflict in the Middle East, the expectations the Albanese Government's reviews and delay have built up for the May Defence budget, and what could replace Defence's broken 'disposal strategy' in an era of wars of necessity.

In Episode 10, SAA's Marcus Hellyer and Michael Shoebridge discuss the indicators and warnings about the state of Australia's military coming out of the decision to not provide a warship to the multinational mission to the Red Sea, and the shortfalls in the Australian Army's ability to deploy shown by the assistance to the North Queensland floods. The extraordinary growth in staffing and spending in the AUKUS subs project team in Australia that's already happening provides a further warning of the growing pressures on Australia's military budget and force.

SAA's Marcus Hellyer and Michael Shoebridge look at the implications of elections from Taiwan, to India, Indonesia, the Solomon Islands, Poland and across the EU for collective action on everything ranging from climate change to China policy and the war in Ukraine. They show why Australia's Future Fund has invested $600m into defence industry everywhere but the autocracies and here at home, and end with a dive into the practical impacts of Australia's proposed new export controls.

"It looks like Australia just gave up its sovereignty and got nothing for it': This episode focuses on the proposed new Australia law that's meant to make innovation happen under the AUKUS partnership, but instead seems guaranteed to kill innovation and ensure even higher barriers to doing business with Defence. Forget working with anyone but the Anglosphere - so the hugely powerful creativity of Japan and South Korea isn't part of this disastrous - proposed - plan. It's permits for everyone.

Australian PM Albanese's world tour ends with a bright spot in the South Pacific. An internal review of the Australian Defence Department's advice and it's compliance with financial and administrative rules shows deep leadership failure at the highest level. And the B-21 as an alternative long range strike platform for Australia.

In Grumpy Strategists Episode 5, Marcus Hellyer and Michael Shoebridge get into why the complex, top heavy leadership structure of Defence affects performance and demotivates those below it. They discuss the recruitment and retention crisis in the Australian military that's unfolded since 2016 - a force that's meant to have grown has shrunk - and finish with insights about the state of the US Navy from a report to Congress released as Mr Albanese left Washington.

In this episode, Marcus Hellyer and Michael Shoebridge discuss the implications of Hamas' mass murders, and what Ukraine and Hamas mean for strategies of deterrence against other aggressors. The release of imprisoned journalist Cheng Lei as a precursor to Anthony Albanese shaking Xi Jinping's hand is discussed as an example of calculating hostage diplomacy.

In Episode 4 the Grumpy Strategists cover the restructuring of the Australian Army in the aftermath of the Defence Strategic Review, as well as setting out the lessons and challenges for the Defence Force from the permanent grounding of the Army's Taipan helicopters after a fatal crash. They end by discussing the implications for the Australian government's China policy around PM Albanese's trips to Beijing and Washington, and the challenges for Mr Albanese in a distracted Washington.

Marcus Hellyer and Michael Shoebridge discuss what the Ukrainian military's attack on Sevasotopol says about navies & denial. This, along with lessons from Australia's 25 year journey of discovery in a multi-billion dollar US drone program, can and should drive a reassessment of what Australia's military needs - and what the broader Australian industrial base can provide. Hint: digging stuff up has a dual-use tech side.

The second Grumpy Strategists Production looks at ‘continuous shipbuilding' and the Navy. 6 years on, the National Naval Shipbuilding Enterprise hasn't delivered any ships. Meanwhile, the ANZAC frigates and Collins submarines are ageing & will become increasingly fragile. What does the Defence Strategic Review show us about the role of the Navy? While the public debate around US Admiral Hilarides' review is limited to a furious argument about big or small ships, Hilarides' job has to get beyond that and provide a practical plan – even if this costs the Government money.

In this first Grumpy Strategist Productions podcast, SAA's Marcus Hellyer and Michael Shoebridge do a health check on the Defence Strategic Review, with some disturbing news for the patient and for Australia's defence industry. Hear about the budget arm wrestles within Defence holding back investment decisions, along with how the DSR's baby reviews advance the Treasurer's fiscal strategy. And learn what's replaced the saying ‘no one ever got sacked for buying IBM'.