Podcast appearances and mentions of nicky haley

Toute la presse américaine parle de la mémoire de Joe Biden, alors que le rapport du procureur spécial a conclu que le président, âgé de 81 ans, était « bien intentionné » mais qu'il avait une « mauvaise mémoire », titre le New York Times. Bien intentionné, il ne sera donc pas poursuivi pour avoir entreposé dans son garage des documents classifiés. Mauvaise mémoire, « car ses facultés ont diminué avec l'âge » accuse le rapport. Le président a aussitôt organisé une conférence de presse à la Maison Blanche, affirmant : « ils ne savent pas de quoi ils parlent ». Et il a été particulièrement ferme pour démentir l'une des affirmations du rapport du procureur spécial, selon laquelle, Joe Biden ne se souviendrait pas de l'année de la mort de son fils Beau. « Comment diable ose-t-il dire ça ? » s'est exclamé le président américain. Mais le New York Times, souligne aussi que la conférence de presse de Joe Biden, s'est terminée sur un nouveau couac.  « En parlant de l'aide aux Palestiniens confrontés aux bombardements israéliens à Gaza, le président a fait référence au président égyptien Abdel Fatah al-Sissi, mais il a parlé du président du Mexique »... Ce qui n'a pas échappé à Nicky Haley, candidate à la primaire républicaine, qui réclame un rajeunissement de la classe politique. « En ce moment, accuse-t-elle, nous avons un président qui ne se souvient pas des événements majeurs de sa vie et qui confond l'Égypte et le Mexique, et puis nous avons un ancien président qui me confond avec Nancy Pelosi », allusion à une récente déclaration de Donald Trump.L'armée ukrainienne au SoudanLe quotidien allemand Die Welt, se fait l'écho d'une vidéo, montrant la capture d'hommes qui semblent être « des mercenaires Wagner au Soudan, où l'armée ukrainienne coopère avec l'armée soudanaise, face aux milices FSR soutenues par Wagner ». « Si c'était confirmé, poursuit die Welt, ce serait un succès spectaculaire pour l'Ukraine ».  La vidéo montre l'interrogatoire d'un homme, « les yeux bandés », qui se présente comme un « mercenaire du groupe Wagner ».  « Il affirme ensuite être l'un des 100 hommes venus de la République centrafricaine jusqu'à Khartoum, la capitale soudanaise, pour renverser le gouvernement ». Mais en filigrane de ce nouveau théâtre de conflit entre la Russie et l'Ukraine, il y aurait surtout une bataille pour le contrôle de l'or, au Soudan. Car selon die Welt, « depuis l'annexion de la Crimée en 2014, la Russie a répondu aux sanctions occidentales en pillant l'or du Soudan, troisième producteur d'Afrique. Jusqu'au début de la guerre au Soudan en avril dernier, le Kremlin fournissait des armes à la fois à l'armée et aux FSR, faisant sortir clandestinement du pays environ 30 tonnes d'or chaque année, soit à peu près autant que ce que le Soudan exporte officiellement ». « Mais désormais, explique le quotidien allemand, Wagner se range résolument du côté des FSR, qui continuent de contrôler les mines les plus rentables de l'ouest du pays ».Camilla et William sous l'œil des caméras« La Reine Camilla fait le point sur santé du roi, pour la 1ʳᵉ fois depuis le diagnostic de sa maladie », annonce The Independant. « La reine dit que le roi se porte extrêmement bien, vu les circonstances », ajoute le Times. Détail important : « Camilla a fait un voyage de six heures en voiture pour assister à une soirée musicale caritative après l'annulation de son vol en hélicoptère à cause du mauvais temps a l'a empêchée de se déplacer en hélicoptère. Une source du palais de Buckingham a déclaré que la reine souhaitait poursuivre le voyage par la route plutôt que d'annuler sa participation, car elle craignait que cela ne suscite une inquiétude quant à l'état du roi ». Le prince Williams est, lui aussi, l'objet de toutes les attentions, après l'opération de Kate. The Independant cite un expert royal, selon lequel il est confronté à un « test de personnalité ».  Face aux problèmes de santé de son père et de son épouse, « il doit endurer de multiples facteurs de stress ». Nul doute qu'une bonne partie de la presse britannique suivra ses faits et gestes.  

This week we look at the positives about Scotland, King Charles's Cancer; EU caves into farmers; Biden and 'Mitterand'; Nicky Haley in Nevada; Michelle O'Neill; Corruption in the EU parliament; Ecocide;  the growth of BRICS; El Salvador's NAyib Bukele; James Marriot on egalitarian, elitist, education; Woke Comedy; 'Gas the Jews', BBC 'Holohoax' employee fired; Police ban singing Christian songs outside church; Newcastle ban lesbian Terf;  'Don't tell them Pike'; The misinformation of Prof Dame Juliet Gerrard; Environment Agency bans 'mother and father';  Electricity; The Church and fake asylum seekers; SEEK 22; with music from Big Country, the Wurzels, Led Zeppelin; Simon and Garfunkel; the Magpie Geordie; Lindisfarne;  OMD; and the Spooky Mens' Chorale. 

Opening monolog, topics Nevada Primary, New session in Hartford Reese on the Radio, Nicky Haley, Jennifer Crumbley verdict

Reese on the Radio, Nicky Haley, Jennifer Crumbley verdict

On this Moats, George Galloway gives his take on the sentencing of former Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan, who with his wife Nushra Bibi, was sentenced to 14 years in prison on accusations of retaining and selling state gifts when he was in power. As his party and candidates are subjected to brutal oppression on the eve on the Pakistan elections, has Pakistan lost its democracy? As the war rages on in Gaza, why has the savage decision to remove funding for The UNRWA (The United Nations Relief and Works Agency) not 24 hours after the ICJ ruling in The Hague against Israel been made and agreed to by Western Leaders? 'I don't believe the US will attack Iran' says former Marine Corps Intelligence Officer Scott Ritter, but gives his reason as to why he doesn't believe Israel invade Lebanon and why there could be a ceasefire in Gaza, but only if Netanyahu says so. Following her trips to Russia, Ukraine and Israel, Founder and Director of MintPress News & Behind the Headlines Mnar Adley talks western hypocrisy and depravity, ‘rules based order', western media complacency with Israeli war crimes, MintPress' and her own persecution for her coverage of issues such as Palestine, Yemen and Ukraine. Nike House returns to Moats to update you with political landscape as the presidential campaigns begin to shift into gear as both the Democrats and Republicans must now decide who to back out of Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Nicky Haley and the other would be Presidents. Scott Ritter: Former UN Weapons Inspector and Marine Corps Intelligence Officer, Author and Political Analyst.- Twitter: https://twitter.com/realscottritter- YouTube: https://youtube.com/@ScottRitterAgain- Website: ScottRitterExtra.com- Telegram: https://t.me/ScottRitterMnar Adley: Founder and Director of MintPress News & Behind the Headlines- Twitter: https://x.com/mnarmuh- Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/mnar_mpn-Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/Mnar.Adley.MediaNiko House: Political Commentator and Founder of MCSC Network- Twitter: https://twitter.com/realnikohouse- Instagram: https://instagram.com/realnikohouse- Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/nikoforthepeople- YouTube: https://youtube.com/@MCSCNetworkWNikoHouse Get bonus content on Patreon Become a MOATS Graduate at https://plus.acast.com/s/moatswithgorgegalloway. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

We discuss the end of the traditional Republican Party and the reality of the new Party of Trump. Exhibit one is that every Wisconsin Republican House of Representative member voted to shut down the federal government rather than full their constitutional duties to maintain the full faith and credit of the U.S. Also, we are witnessing the inevitable end of the GOP presidential primary with Nicky Haley's campaign beaten again in New Hampshire and on fumes while Trump promises retribution to all his opponents and threatens to blacklist any supporters of Haley. Vice President Kamala Harris was in Waukesha and President Biden in Superior this week. Democrats clearly see Wisconsin as central to Biden's re-election, so expect to see the President and other top administration officials here often. We dissect the sudden and unplanned closure of a large hospital and clinic system in the Chippewa Valley and Governor Evers' immediate call for Medicaid expansion to stabilize rural hospitals and clinics. Robert debriefs Governor Evers' State of the State speech, and assesses the major policy proposals he advanced heading into a critical election year. We discuss Speaker Vos' failed attempt to bate Governor Evers and Legislative Democrats into a bad deal on new legislative maps. Meanwhile, Assembly Republicans again block the impeachment of Election head Meagan Wolf by their even crazier faction. Question, would one sentence of support from their strong man leader Donald Trump change their position? We talk about the new world in Wisconsin politics with the impending Legislative maps, where we likely have the first fair election for control of the Legislature in over a decade. How does this new democratic world shape what the Governor and Legislative Democrats should be supporting for the remainder of the legislative session? We also take a deeper dive into the Congressional maps lawsuit. A Stanford University expert advising the plaintiffs says Wisconsin Congressional maps are the most partisan slanted in the U.S.

Donald Trump is cleaning up in the caucuses and primaries, and all of the conservative pundits are saying he can win the 2024 presidential election including Jordan Peterson, Ben Shapiro and Piers Morgan.#donaldtrump #Trump #2024elections Ep. 719DIRECT DONATION LINK (See your comment appear live): https://streamlabs.com/johnnymassacre

Sheila Kahyaoglu, Jefferies Senior Equity Research Analyst, discusses the latest on Boeing and the airlines sector amid a nationwide grounding of the 737 Max 9 aircraft. Seema Shah, Principal Asset Management Chief Global Strategist, expects a positive nominal growth environment and a continued fall in inflation. Kathy Bostjancic, Nationwide Mutual Insurance Chief Economist, says a mild recession is still a possibility despite strong economic data. Matthew Bartlett, Darby Field Advisors Principal & Republican strategist, previews the final GOP debate before the Iowa Caucuses begin on Monday. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance  Full Transcript:This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene, along with Jonathan Farrow and Lisa Abramowitz. Join us each day for insight from the best an economics, geopolitics, finance and investment. Subscribe to Bloomberg Surveillance on demand on Apple, Spotify and anywhere you get your podcasts, and always on Bloomberg dot Com, the Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app. Where are Boeing Aircraft made? I believe it's Renton, Washington where they were tuned into the college football game here a while back. The seven thirty seven comes out of Reton, Washington. An expert on that is Sheila Kiglu, senior equity research analyst at Jeffreys and joins us this morning. Have you been to Reton, Washington? I have. There's three production lines. The third one just opened up, so if you think about it, each one of those turns out fifteen to seventeen max's per month. The fourth one will open next year and ever at about an hour and a half away from Renton. So I want you to speak and I don't want you to talk about all your leverage finance work at JP Morgan and your wonderful work at Jefferys, your award winning work and institutional investor forget about it. Our listeners and viewers want to know where's the problem and is it easy to fix? Is it rent in Washington or is it the fuselage riveters in Kansas. I think the problem is the pandemic deteriorated their aerospace workforce not so much. And I mean the problem is in Renton, not only at the Boeing factory, but the small Tier three, Tier four suppliers around there. They're seeing strain on their workforce. The problem has been really focused over the last year in Spirit in Wichita, with three incidents either on the Max or the eight to seven involving quality issues. So there's been management changes there to address those quality issues, and I think that's really the focus item. Given we've seen small improvements in the engine manufacturers and the Tier three, this sounds absolutely shocking when I start to hear about this, At least for ask this question earlier in the week. I'd love your response to it. Are we suggesting that things are safe but not as safe as they were before the pandemic? Now in this industry, I think the industry is having a tough time recruit you know, getting back up to post pandemic levels, and you know we're manufacturing. In September, we were only manufacturing in the teens a month on these max is when we were supposed to be at thirty eight a month. So we essentially, you know, in December deliveries were forty four. Half of that was out of inventory, half of it was actual production. So we basically doubled output in three months, right, we were trying to double output. So there's a stream, given air traffic is back to one hundred percent of twenty nineteen levels, to get this aircraft production back, and it was very constrained over the last three years. You've now did demand at Boeing isn't the problem, it's deliveries. We had Ryan as Michael O'Leary sit in your seat actually at the end of last year, complaining about the delays to the seven thirty seven max getting delivered to Ryanair how Osawi to further delays and ultimately canceled orders because of what's tanking place. I'm sure he was more entertaining than me, and this seat, I will tell you that he's more entertaining than I Am, don't worry about it. You know, what we've seen is that we've seen a delivery slip. We delivered about one thousand aircraft in twenty two. That number was fifteen hundred post pandemic on the narrow body. So we've seen that happen already. But we're not going to see cancelations. We're seeing the order brook stretch out twenty eight twenty nine. Everybody wants to get in line, and even Ryanair, who's been the most outspoken against Boeing, has talked about wanting that aircraft sooner and pricing being better for them, Pricing being better for Boeing on some of the Ryan Air aircraft because they want the aircraft sooner. What's the opportunity here for Airbus? I mean, I mean just as simple and tou luise I got to play this low. It could be them. I get the whole dance. But is this a huge strategic opportunity in the United States of America for unit sales for Airbus? Not so much. I think the opportunity was from twenty nineteen to twenty three twenty two, when the Max was essentially grounded, not delivering to China as well, where we're forgetting about that China element. But Airbus had their market share opportunity. So what we see in twenty five as Boeing produces fifty max is a month and Airbus does seventy five maybe in the twenty twenty six time frame is more likely to be honest. So they already have that market share game. And let's not for Yes, Airbus has its own issues. The Airbus aircraft is mad has two engine options, either the ge leap option and the Raithyon GTF option. We know the GTF has a contaminated powder in it, so they're basically grounding forty percent of the GTF engines in the first half of this year to do inspections on them. So Airbus is not short of its issues as well. Okay, some of this is the complexity of the engineering across all of aviation. Are we at a point now and then, I mean, I get the COVID idea. I think that's brilliant, But are we at a point where these things are becoming too complex? Some areg you, it's not complex enough, not enough fuel efficiency, not enough energy efficiency, two pilots to by the plane. So I think that what we've seen in the aircraft industry is no new models really, this is the twenty twenties are just an upgrade of the existing models and efficiency. Are they still trying to do a one pilot plane. I think that's off the books for now. The focus has really been on the engine, the fuel efficiency, and what kind of engine we get in the twenty thirty five twenty forty time frame and how that aircraft takes us over the next two to three decades. The sitting of the jet back and forth on the wing was due to fuel efficiency, right, should we jettison? Fuel efficiency is an engineering mandate, that's what we're aiming for. But clearly the engine OEMs have had a lot of trouble, not only in production but the efficiency that they're getting. So not calling out GTF only with the raytheon issues. Not only do they have the contaminated powder, they've needed to do upgrades to get their engine up to par so is leaps. So that's what we're calling fence building. Let's finish on the regulator. This is a difficult one. How do you expect the regulator to respond to this? How do authority step in here? Given what could have taken place on Friday. So, John, you started off very stark contrast with Dave Calhoun yesterday, and I think the regulators took that same message. NTSP is solely focused on the accident. Well, no, in twelve to eighteen months, what really happened? The FAA said Grounding twelve hours in, so did Yassa. So I think that they're taking a stark stance. Boeing has this directive out on how to inspect the aircraft, and I think we could see the aircraft back in the air by the end of next week. The end of next week. That quickly. The directive said four to eight hours to inspect the aircraft. You think about just the pr element of it. An extra week when you hear from the regulator. Of course, they have to start out really broad, actually have all options open, t K consider everything, Shila. Do you get the sense that they've narrowed this investigation down already? Then, given your expectation, we'll be back up in the air next week. So the NTSP, I think, will take a year to come to a conclusion on exactly what happened and what the cause was. But the FAA seems pretty confident that the directive came out so quickly, thirty seconds normal conversation. What's your single best buy right now? Oh, this amazing company called Higo. When I started covering it's called Hiko. Hiko. Yes, twenty one billion market cap fifty one times PE. But when I first started covering this stock, and I won't tell you when that was, the market cap was two billion dollars. They are a generic aircraft parts manufacturer and they supply the aftermarket. The more we don't get new aircraft deliveries, the more Hiko benefits because the old planes get serviced. Interesting. I thought we could have rund out that conversation sort of long bowing, but we didn't. Shada, thank you, it's good to hear. Free me. Just fantastic, real depth to that conversation. Shada kyli that of Jeffreys. Let's catch out with say Mishap the chief club was strategistic principal asset man wish and seem pleased to say joined us right now. Seem a greater catch up two part story this year for you, first half, second half, first half, volatility, second half rally. I have to say it reminds me of some of the outlooks that I got last year for twenty twenty three, saying, what is it about twenty twenty four where you think that story could actually take place? So I think that Look, if you think about where we were at the end of last year, where you had I think a price per perfection, you know you couldn't get better news in the idea that the FED would start cutting it early in this year. You would have a soft landing, et cetera. Now, I'm not saying that that's not all going to come true, but at the beginning of this year, you're already seeing the market push back on some of those original expectations about early FED cuts. You're seeing ecod basilience that is creating a wobble, and I struggled to see what is going to be the catalyst to drive another leg up in the near term. Yourys need to see a bit of a pullback as the market starts to question their raid expectations. And then as you get towards the middle of the year and you get closer to that actual rate cut date, you see an economics slow down, but it doesn't turn out to be too damaging. That to me is that greed signal four and a more prolonged rally. Yes, seem a dovetail nominal GDP. Now that combination of real GDP plus the inflation with the IMS call of a beleaguered, slow global economy out four years to twenty twenty eight, where are we in that continuum as we go into twenty twenty four? Is there an animal spirit within our nominal GDP or is it going to drift away? So, look, we are anticipating a bit of a global growth slowdown. You know, if you look across the US, Europe, China, it's not particularly exciting, but you do have a couple of bright spots around the globe. But we're not anticipating a very prolonged economic weakness. So I think this is a fairly decent nominal growth environment. But along with that comes the idea that we don't necessarily see inflation coming all the way back down to two below two percent like you saw in previous years. So from a real rate, which I know you've been focused on, it is a slightly more challenging environment than we've seen in previous years, and I think investors need to start taking that into consideration as they're starting to position their portfolios. What does the real rate do this year the ten year inflation adjusted rate in the United States, So we're expected to come down slightly, but not too much. If I give you an idea, you know, we're expecting the FED to color three times twenty five basis points each time, so it's not very significant. We are expecting inflation to come down to around the two point four percent level, so it's not too far from where we are today. That is a little bit still quite restrictive, so you're not in a fantastic environment for risk assets, but there is a lot of cyclical factors that we can take into consideration. It's just if you're thinking about your portfolio, you're looking at a higher cost of capital than you've had in the last decade or so, so you need to be kind of screening your stocks a little bit closer. You need to be start thinking a little bit more about bonds as well. You know, in terms of it's great in inflationary, it's or in a disinflationary scenario. But in an inflationary scenario where inflation doesn't come all the way back down to what maybe was accustomed to before, bonds don't necessarily perform as well as you would have expected. I wonder what your call is then on consumer discretionary. I'll share with you what we heard from Lori Cavasina of RBC overnight, greating discretionary to market way and saying this, Seema, We're wary of being underweight going forward, given the tendency of this sector to outperform when interest rates are falling. They're two sectors at the moment that are kind of leading the pact to close out last year. And whenever we rally, it's discretionary, it's tech. Where are you on the format and for that matter, where are you on the latter. So actually on the consumer discretioning, I'm not too negative. I do think there are challenges coming for consumers, but I don't think there is significant as maybe a lot of people, including myself, were worried about at the end of last year. There's just a lot going for consumers at the moment. I mean, as long as the labor market is holding up as strong as it is, and I think consuming discretion can do well. On the tech side, I still have good, I guess solid expectations for tech. I do worry though about whether the expectations from the market is going to be fulfilled. So whereas I wouldn't want to go negative or underweight technology, I think there are other parts of the market which are a little bit more interesting for twenty twenty four. If, as you said, you're going to see FED cuts and soft learning, I think there are other parts of the market can do well. We'll talk to me about the other parts. Then what's the big call for you? Banks? Where do they fit in? Give me we get earnings on Friday. I think banks can do pretty well. I think you know, as you're going to see in a lot of parts of the market, there are headwinds in the first half of the year, but as you get through to the second then I think banks can do well. The other part of the market, which I think should be gaining interest, there's going to be a bit of a warble in the first quarter at least bit small caps, I think the evaluations are very attractive. Typically, when you get a fed cutting cycle and it's accompanied by a kind of a return to or at least solid growth, that is typically a very good signal for small caps. And when you're looking at that valuation gap between the large and the small cup, it is very attractive so I think this is the time that investors start thinking about it and maybe edging into those positions. If youels come down, is the is the flow of money out of money market funds it's assumed. Is it linear or does it all come in one great surge. I think that's it's really difficult to say in terms of how the investors sentiment is going to go. What I do think though, is one is that those money market funds, they do have the potential to create a pretty strong rally once some of the questions that investors have hanging over them are answered. So those questions would include when is the going to start reducing interest rates? And the second thing is is there could be an economic slow down? And if there is an economic slow down, how devastating is it going to be. I think all three of those questions are going to be answered fairly from in a positive tilt in that there's a slowdown, but it's not too devastating at all. And I think once you have some of these questions answered, then money market funds that trickle is going to move towards those risk acids, which is one of the reason do you think investors should be positioning for a stronger second half of the year. Russ Coastrick at Black Crog said something similar in Raka Semath thank you. Going to hear from your Sam a Chant of Principal Asset Management right now to further discussion and the American economy. Kathleen bus Johnson joins his chief economists Nationwide Mutual Insurance. Kathy, what's the state of the consumer? Good morning, Tom and John Happy to be with you. Well, the consumer has been really resilient and not really reflective of the labor market continue to be quite strong. We've got employment growth that continues to kind of outpace the monthly estimates, and wage growth continues to be buoyant. So you know, put that together, you still have you know, income wherewithal of the consumer to keep spending. Now, it's not going to be the buoyant spending that we had in the past. You know, most much of the of not all of the pandemic related savings has been run down. But you know, until we see a slow down a labor market, the consumer can continue to run Here. The character of our wage growth is compared to a declining inflation is something the optimist speak of. Is it normal? Is it a normal dynamic now or do you put an asterisk around what that means? It's getting more normalized. I mean wage growth. If you look at the average earlier earnings numbers running four to one, you know you would probably in a more normal time see that around three and a half. So you're seeing wage growth is still a bit you know, buoyant there, but inflation is not back to two percent yet either. So I think in the mix, what you're seeing is real wage growth that is steady. You know, it's not stellar, but it's not negative either, So you know that that helps to you know, kind of keep the consumer buoyant. But we do think there's some slowing underneath the headline and employment numbers, and I do think we are going to see The question is do we see you know, just a soft patch in growth in the middle part of the year, or do we get a mild recession. We're still thinking that mild recession is possible, but you know, certainly recognize that the data have come in stronger than expected and that could continue. Kathy, how would you expect John Williams, the New York Fed President, to address some of those issues this afternoon? Yeah, very much. Looking forward to his comments, you know, and to put into perspective like they kind of we're talking about ray cuts. Well not really, but you know, and the Minute's helped us out a little bit there. But I do think they're at an interesting time now. I mean, in a way it's better than they thought, right, but it's still complicated. It's better because inflation has come down much quicker than they thought, the labor market has been more resilient. But now that the idea is well, it's not just about lowering inflation, but can we stabilize the economy to avoid, you know, a harder landing. So I'm very interested to see how he kind of threads out. I think one message you'll probably deliver is the bond market is still a little too optimistic in the start of the timing of rate cuts. But to be honest, we're looking for May May June market sort of pricing and high odds and marks not all that different. The fact is the Fed's is going to be cutting rates this year unless something on inflation starts to turn around in a very ugly way. Well, Kathy, not all rate cuts are created equally, and I think that on the surface, it's almost contradictory to talk about maintaining a restrictive stance and entertain the surgical rate cuts at the same time with a focus on real yields. Do you think they can entertain both iteas simultaneously and communicate effectively and clearly. Well, communication has not been there, you know, the top bright spot here really to be honest, you know they need to communicate clearly. But I you also think your point is well taken. Are you just removing some of that restrictiveness but still want to hang on to it because you're not quite one hundred percent confident infleetion's getting back to two percent? Or do you say, you know what inflation? We do have a high degree of confidence. You're getting to the point with you know Mike's interview with Lorettemester. You know how confident they are we're going back to two percent? And how does that real rate, you know, play in to the mix of things, because right now the real rate is higher. Right the fact that it can't in Columbus, Ohio nationwide is on your side, and all that the unemployment rate is two point eight zero percent. Help me with Senator Warren from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. Shouldn't we be up on the tables pop and champagne and celebrating an unemployment rate of two point eight zero percent. Yes, I mean we should be celebrating that this economy is is quite good, and you know, inflation is coming down. You know, maybe that is why consumers overall and maybe there's not as much exuberance out there, but inflation's coming down eventually. If it's going to be cutting interest rates at some point this year, you know, that's that's a very positive mix. And to your point, and employment rate certain parts of the country, like Columbus, very very low and very positive. So I think we need to applaud a lot of that, and that sort of gets overshadowed by all of our concerns. Kathy, just quickly, where do you have unemployment your end? Yes, so we see the unemployment rate drifting a bit higher, but because we have a mild recession, it doesn't even get above five percent. So you're looking at something around four point seven percent or so at the high so let some of the air out of the economy, but certainly does not crush the labor market. Interesting, Kathy, Thank you appreciate the insight. Kathy Chance it that of nationwide. Matthew Bartland knows each and every ward in Nashua, New Hampshire. He is hardcore in New Hampshire. Enjoins us this morning Darby Field Advisors, a Republican strategist with service in the Trump administration until a certain January date. I got to go there first, Matthew, as you joined surveillance for the first time. What was it like on January sixth when you said, Sea, Yeah, you know, thanks Tom. Listen. It was a very very hard day here in this town in Washington, and I remember walking home it was during COVID and crossing the Capitol and just seeing the utter mayhem and feeling utter discussed and made what was just the easiest decision I've ever made my career, which was, dear mister Secretary, I hereby resigne immediately from the State Department. Decisions will be made in this excuse me, decisions will be made in Hampshire, Mass Bartlet what's the tone you see right now among Republicans? Well, exactly, it's January, and you know the business community that the country is looking at a lot of those those snow covered roads right now. It's not Davos might be Davenport, Iowa, might be dover New Hampshire. And you know, we are looking at what is either the beginning or maybe the end. President Trump has a significant lead. There are really two battlegrounds right now. It's Iowa, which he may have locked up, and it's a question of expectations. And then it's over in New Hampshire, the Granite State, my home state, where Nikki Haley may be putting together some puzzle pieces with her granite heels on climbing the mountain and may shock the Trump campaign, may shock the world. And if so, then we have a race. But if President Trump really blows it out in both states, I think this nomination might be wrapped up and wrapped up ptty quickly. Well, Matthia, talk about that. You've been on the ground with every candidate I believe in the field, Matthew, do you see anything on the ground. It's difficult to reconcile with what we all see in the polls. Oh sure, right now. Polls. You'll see a lot of national polls. Those poll polls are certainly, you know, lagging indicators. It is the state polls that are the leading indicators. The nomination process is not a you know, as we know, a national election, it's a state by state event, and right now in Iowa and in New Hampshire, the race is not nationalized. Rather it's personalized. People get to go and meet the candidates upfront, hear from them directly, unfiltered from you know, free from from media, free from ads, get to ask questions, and that's really where where people can can can make their stake. And I think that's what we see Nikki Heley do to to a very high degree. What's the number one issue that you think is attracting voters to the likes of Nicki Hailey? You know, I think it's probably a mix of policies of you know, maybe the Biden administration, whether it's foreign policy, domestic spending, inflation that have kind of pushed people away from you know, their vote maybe twenty twenty or away from the Democratic Party, but more importantly looking back towards what people see, as you know, a firmer Republican party that maybe is absent some of them, mayhem, some of the personality deficits that former President Trump has displayed for the better part of a decade. Now. Matthew Barlow. Terry Hayes visits often from Pangaea, and he made a common a number of months ago where he said, there's a complete misjudgment about the number of GOP who really aren't in love with the former president. In political Jonathan Martin the headline where are all the anti Trump Republicans? Where are they? Matthew? And are there any conquered New Hampshire? Oh, certainly, you know, if you look at New Hampshire, it is the only purple state, maybe the only swing state. In addition to being an early state. Republicans can only vote in the Republican primary, Democrats can only vote in the Democratic primary. But independence, of which there are more than Republicans or Democrats, can vote either one. So right now, the independence of New Hampshire, those that actually decide the general election are going to have a significant role in choosing the Republican nominee, or at least impacting that. Right now, it looks as if they are going to Nicky Haley. There is a Trump fatigue factor. In fact, when you go to her town halls, one of the biggest applause lines you hear. She's quite candid, she says, listen polling says Donald Trump might be up one to four points on Joe Biden, but I'm up seventeen points. So I think a lot of strong conservatives look at that as a resounding, you know, rationale for her candidacy, and a lot of independent voters, you know, find her to be the Goldilocks King. What does President Biden need to do to garner those GOP diss affected votes. Does he need to communicate with him like his communicating with a Pentagon. Yeah, I think communications a good start, you know, putting priority that you see, you hear, you listen to those that it is a warm place. Maybe some of his policies have been rather progressive. He's been for the past four years really attuned to the left wing of his party. Now, as we turn a corner into a potential you know, general election, he really needs to make sure that that coalition that he built in twenty twenty stays with him, that they do not feel deflated. And that's from the left on certain issues which may be a little more sensitive. Maybe it's foreign policy issues as we're seeing in playout in Michigan. But again, those disaffected voters who thought Trump, you know, maybe they liked his policy, but they just thought his personality was just too much. Now it's going to be yet again a choosing time potentially between Trump and Biden and who can swing those voters right back. Let's get to TV programming later on the seven and just to wrap things up math nine pm Eastern time. I believe you've got Run versus Nicky on CNN and then you've got the former president kind of programming on Fox News. What's the approach from Nicky im Ron going to be they going after each other or going after the former president. I mean, listen, it's gonna be both, you know, more than anything right now, the Republican Party wants somebody with attitude and swagger, and that is certainly why Donald Trump has had a command over the party, not just over the past few months, but over the past few years. So it is a performance. It is how you take a punch, how you land a punch, how you come back from a punch. Nicki Haley has really made her bones in this race by lighting up vivek Ramaswany like a pinball machine at debates, and it seems their voters appreciate that. Look for more of that tonight. Let's continue the conversation for this month. Matthew Greta catch out Matthew Bountle at the f Danby Field Advisors. Subscribe to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live every week starting at seven am Eastern. I'm Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can watch us live on Bloomberg Television and always I'm the Bloomberg Terminal. Thanks for listening. I'm Tom Keen, and this is BloombergSee 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Callers, Topic - Comments about interview with Rabbi, Nicky Haley and Vivek Ramaswamy. Guest - Jazz Shaw, HotAir.com, Topic - John Kerry and climate, Putin heads to the Middle East

Jay Bryson, Wells Fargo Chief Economist, and David Kelly, JPMorgan Asset Management Chief Global Strategist, break down October's US CPI report that shows a steady easing in inflation. Liz Suzuki, Bank of America Securities Analyst, says consumers are relying on excess savings amid the discomfort of higher rates. Greg Valliere, AGF Investments Chief US Policy Strategist, expects Congress to pass a government funding bill and avert a shutdown. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance  Full transcript:I'm Tom Keene, along with Jonathan Farrow and Lisa Abramowitz. Join us each day for insight from the best and economics, geopolitics, finance, and investment. Subscribe to Bloomberg Surveillance on demand on Apple, Well, Spotify and anywhere you get your podcasts, and always on Bloomberg dot com, the Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg Business App. Is the Fed Done? Is this basically what we're looking at right now? The all clear sign for the Federal Reserve to have to do more. Jay Brison, Chief Economist, it W Wells Fargo joining US. Now I ask that to you, Jay, does this sound the all clear for the FED? It does for right now, Lisa. I mean, you know, these numbers are going to bounce around on a month by month basis. You know, I wouldn't. Our view is that the FED probably is done. But I don't expect FED officials to be coming out just because of this one report saying oh it's all clear, everything's great out there. I mean, I think they're still going to continue to be biased to potentially tightening. We don't think that will happen, but you know, in the next few months, these numbers kind of reverse and they kind of pop up, and the economy expands at a stronger unexpected rate, you could potentially see them going But again, I think that's a that's a high bar at this point. This adds to signs that there is some sort of cool and this is the reason why so many people are talking about a soft landings. You haven't seen the real cracks you'd expect ahead of a massive recession. Jay, do you think that is an accurate categorization of exactly what we're seeing with prices not going up as much as people had expected. Yeah, I think that's right, you know. I mean, if we were still clipping along at a year over year rate on the core of a five percent, we'd be talking about the Fed hiking even more. And when you start to hike even more, that's when you have the problems. So, you know, so the potential for a soft landing is still there. I guess what I'm a little bit still watching and concerned about is that the real FED funds, right, you know, the nominal rate minus some sort of inflation rate continues to drift higher, and that's what matters for the real economy. And so I think the Fed is going to delay easing at this point, and so we may or may not have a downturn early next year, but I think the next few quarters because monetary policy is going to remain restrictive. I think you're looking at headwinds on xanomic growth. Is it mission accomplished? There's a comedy to that, a painful comedy for our geopolitics, our history, Doctor Bryson. What are we getting to a transitory point where this Federal Reserve can say mission accomplished? Well, again, Tom, I don't think they're going to come out and say that right at this point. But you know what I would say is the bar for further rate hikes is getting higher and higher at this point. Many of the members on the FOMC think they have done enough at this point, and you know, today's rally and the tenure notwithstanding, you know, we still have seen you know, relatively high long term rates and so there's a fair amount of headwinds on the economy right now. Again, they're not going to come out and say mission accomplished right now. They need to see a few more months of this before I think they feel confident in that this is certainly a good start in that journey. But I still think, you see, you need to see a few more months of point two's before they say accomplished. Lisa, the mission accomplished December twelfth a CPI report before a December thirteenth FED meeting, and or just to really echo what Jay was talking about that the bar is getting higher and higher for them to go again, evidently the bar is getting a bit lower for them to cut rates. FED dated swaps are now pricing in the first twenty five basis point cut for June versus July. Before we got this print, Jay, there is this issue of what we're going back to. Are we seeing a fast enough pace of disinflation to believe that two percent is very much in the horizon. You and your team have been excellent about the last mile of getting inflation down from three percent to two percent? How far along that process are we? So, you know, I don't have the numbers here in front of me, Lisa, but you know, I think if you look at the three month annualized change in the core, we're probably at three and a half percent right now. So if you want to get back down to two, I mean, what you need is you need a few months of point twos and even point one to kind of get you there. And I'd think we're still looking at a number of months for that. We don't think we're going to be looking at that sort of number until the second half of twenty twenty four. But I don't know if you necessarily need to be two percent annualized for a few months before the FED cuts. I mean, they're going to be looking forward, right and if they are confident that things are really going to slow down, then they could start to cut rates, you know, maybe summer or so of next year, Doctor Bryson, thank you so much. The chief economist of Will's Frogo Ja Brison, David Kelly, will adjust. He's chief Global Strategists at JP Morgan Asset Management. With his years at Putnam knows when the facts change, he will change. David Kelly, how does your analysis change with this shock report? Yeah, so this this report is actually very close to who we're looking for here. As we're tracing as inflation, we can see right down to below two percent on the consumption deflator by the fourth court of next year. I think what's really important about this report is there's a large camp of people who say that the last mile is sticky, getting from three to two is sticky, and we don't see that at all. We're going to step down inflation all the way through the fourth court of next year. And what I think this report is showing is across the board, there's disinflation in the US economy and we're heading back to two percent. So I think that is gradually changing in the minds of the markets. I think that's why you've seen this move here, although it's not necessarily coming with paying David, and this goes to the soft landing Nirvana that Neil Dotta was talking about, that real average hourly earnings increased by zero point eight percent, up from zero point five percent. People's earnings are exceeding at the pace of inflation and in a material way for the first time in a long time. How much does that lead to a stickiness because people have the means to keep paying the prices. I don't think so, because I mean, we've had periods of positive real wage growth before. But what I'm saying looking at the earnings reports from the last quarter is companies are very focused on holding earnings in check. Now, yes, you can say that today's earnings are higher than inflation, but from a worker's perspective, they're not even getting catch up from all the inflation they saw over the last two years. So what you're seeing is partial compensation for previous inflation. But I don't see a lot of evidence that companies are being able to push higher prices the workers being able to push higher wages. So overall, I think what we're seeing we're not seeing a price wage spiral. We're seeing a price wage slinky. They're both gradually coming down the stairs slowly. I think this is just going to continue all the wage two percent, and there's a question mark around Yes, this is definitely good for bonds and you're seeing that rally in a massive way today. Is this necessarily good for stocks over the longer term if it is accompanied with a cooling in the economy. Yeah, I think it is. Now. There are things that could go wrong, and there's certainly parts of the stock market that are overpriced, but I think what's happening is work turning to where we were ten years ago. We're turning to an economy with two percent inflation, very slow growth. That low inflation can allow for lower long term interest rates, which supports all asci prises, bonds and stocks alike. And of course stocks are the ultimate long duration asset, so they will benefit from this lower rate environment. So, you know, soft landings never last forever. They'll eventually the rote and we'll fall into recession. But for right now, this does really show that inflation is steadily coming down, and we've just got to we've got to recognize that's going on. Regardless of Fed officials who occasionally say that we're not there yet or tour into declare victory. Look, I'm willing to say we're going to win this thing. It looks very very likely they're going to win this. In Invation down to two percent by the end of next year, Small Stacks Russell up four percent, NASDAK up one point eight percent, though Nasdaq one hundred, I should say Dow lags up one point one percent, Standard Impores five hundred, up fifty, up fifty five, up sixty, and now up sixty three points one point five percent. Doctor Kelly, I want to sum this up to the angst that Lisa Brambo Bramo Wit says on our nation's debt. If we get inflation down, if we have a successful FED, does that give you confidence that we can have in long term our minus G relationship, our minus G equation, that will mean our debt and deficit is of less fear a little bit. I mean, it's still what you're basically saying is we can service this debt at cheaper prices no matter how large it is. Yes, we can to an extent, But I think the amount of debt we've piled up in recent years is going to mean permanently higher loge of interest rates experienced ten years ago, so that that problem is going to be around for a while unfortunately, I see no evidence that there's any consensus in Washington about doing anything about it about it, so I'm still worried about poppulism. Left of the right just pushing these depths its higher and higher in the years ahead. Doctor Kelly, thank us so much, David Kelly, JP Morgan joining US unapplied mathematics of big box retail. Elizabeth Suzuki joins US at Bank of America Securities. When you were going through polynomials and you know, doing ferrisproof and all that and applied manth, you think you'd be an aisle four at home depot. I did not. I never thought that my work was going to include channel check at stores that I just go to anyway. In fact, now you know, as a homeowner for the last you know, six years, I'm in home depot pretty much every weekend, maybe every other weekend. But I mean it just never stopped. Wonderful. I've never been to the one downstairs Ferrell's down there once a week picking up something. Let me cut to the chase, which is the new post pandemic home depot world and for other big box as well. Can they fix the problem on the income statement? Can they take out expenses like Disney or you name the bank. Sure, you know, I wouldn't really categorize it as a problem on the income statement. When we think about what Home Depot is going to do this year in terms of sales, they're probably going to end up about fifty percent higher than they were in twenty nineteen. And just putting that in context of the broader industry, which is tracking up about like twenty percent versus twenty nineteen levels, that's an amazing amount of market share that Home Depot has been able to take. I mean, we're coming down off of these very very high levels of spend. During the pandemic. Homeowners had you know, easy rates to be able to borrow against. They also had you know, stimulus money to spend. They were moving at much higher frequency. A lot of people moved out to the suburbs during the pandemic. I mean, we've seen a slowdown in that, and you know, I think what's been surprising this year to the downside and just where we've seen that pressure on the top line is really mostly from housing turnover basically coming to a standstill, you know, so as as we expect. Yeah, so I think, you know, as as rates start to moderate or potentially even come down, maybe towards the second half of next year, I think that's going to help spur that housing turnover again and we're going to see more of a return to normalization in terms of that top line salesca Given what mortgage rates are, do you really think we can normalize the fact that some people just locked in their homes with the two three percent mortgage you just aren't moving anytime soon. Yeah, you know. I think it's like once rates really stabilize, maybe come down a tick, you know, a couple of rate cuts, potentially in the second half of next year, then you know the homeowner is saying, okay, like rates are probably not continuing to go up, I can potentially refinance. If I were to move today, I'm locking in a rate that's higher than what I wanted. But I feel like there's some potential for that to come down over time, and maybe it means that people buy a house that's a little bit smaller than what they wanted, or it means that you know, some people who are moving and you know, are going to have to absorb a higher rate. But because households have such high levels of savings they actually can absorb that. It's just it is uncomfortable, right So right now we're feeling that discomfort in terms of existing home sales, which are the lowest they've been in thirteen years. How much does home tapot rely on the housing market versus the fact that people aren't moving they are buying new refrigerators I'm just saying, or they're buying new stoves or new microwaves or other items in the house that might break. I mean at a certain point, does that actually help these companies? Yeah, I mean the sector is not as sensitive to housing turnover as one might think. I mean, when you're seeing these negative data points on housing every day, and if you already have sort of a negative bias, each one of those data points just kind of confirms your bias and you're going to say, of course, things are terrible right now. So what we've done is we tried to look at basically every macro factor you possibly could. And this is really where that applied mathematics comes into play. As we built a proprietary indicator of home improvement demand and we narrowed it down to fourteen different factors that are reported monthly that we can correlate to Home Depot and Low same store sales growth. At the end of the day, that's pretty much what drives these stocks is same store sales growth. So we narrowed it down to these fourteen factors, we built an indicator off of it, and then that indicator helps inform our views where we don't have to be dependent on the company's guidance, we don't have to be dependent on third party forecasts. Like we're able to actually look at the factors that matter, and then months to month we can track each of those factors and not get distracted by the noise that we hear in a lot of these other data correlated as Home Depot to some of the other retailers that are not related to the housing or home improvement sector. Yeah, I mean, that's that's a really interesting question. And I think, you know, when we boil it down and look to look at the broader sector and look at Bank of America's credit card data for the home improvement retailers, which is you know, just very broad category, Home Depot has outperformed that group pretty consistently, like actually very consistently over time, and Low's has as well. By at least two hundred basis points. So you know, the market share gains here are pretty material, and that's something that I want to just continue to kind of hone in on. In this result is even though their sales are down three percent, we've seen the category down you know, mid to high single digits year over year for most of this year. But in terms of correlation to you know, to other retailers, it's it's pretty independent. I mean, it's it's some factor of the broader consumer and the health there, and so obviously there's correlation to like a Walmart and a Target. But because it is related to housing and really home prices are one of the most important factors driving home improvement demand, that's really where it kind of differentiates. We've all been surprised by the strength that is economy this year. There's a bunch of companies that fall under your coverage. We're trying to work out whether we are at the precipice just around a corner from a severe weakning of the economy. Do you see any of that emerging whatsoever going into year end? Yeah, I mean I think that there are categories that we follow that are struggling more than others. You know, appliances, We talked about refrigerators. I mean, appliance sales are down. You know, the volumes have been under pressure. Margins are coming under pressure as well. We saw promotions that started in October for appliances. So if you're you should get on it, if you're you're in the market for a fridge, because I think those promotions are going to be, you know, pretty pretty attractive this year with the cameras. Some impressed. Yeah, I just kind ofd you get no, I just want to hear what you have to say. Carry on. But you know, consumer electronics is another one, right, I mean, as as Home Depot said in their press release or seeing pressure on big ticket consumer discretionary product. So consumer electronics definitely one of those. Appliance is kind of fit in that bucket from New York University just emailed in. So you're sitting here with Ken Langohn, He's gonna go. This is all a lot of great chat. But the bottom line after a three years pandemic and lays let's call it is, can they get back on track to the total return that we were weaned on? Can they get back to sixteen eighteen to twenty percent per year share return. Yes, I think, you know, in this current macro environment, that's tough, you know, because the consumer is pulling back on spending and we are coming off of this you know, sugar high from the last couple of years. But you know, we as we look to twenty twenty four and twenty twenty five, we see no reason why there shouldn't still be growth in the home improvement sector beyond the broader economy list. This was great, Thank yous. Going to see in person as well. Greg Fadia joint is right now, the chief US policy strategistic AHF Investments, Greg, in your mind, from your perspective, in your opinion, do you think this pass can pass, can get through Congress this week? I think they can. It's been so humiliating for them for the last few weeks. I think they know they've got to do something. The credit rating downgrade is serious. So yeah, I'm at sixty forty one minutes possible that a handful, once again, a handful of far right radical Republicans could kill this, but I think they want to give at least on this first bill. They want to give Mike Johnson a victory. This is what I was going to ask Greg, who does this particular offer upset more? Is it Republicans within his own party or elsewhere? What's a good point, John, There's so much in the bill to hate. For the Conservative Republicans, there are no spending cuts and they're quite upset over that. For the White House and the Democrats, the fact that there's nothing for Israel or Ukraine is very troubling. And we can say, oh, we'll get them some money in February. Well, they need money now, and I think to not send our allies this money sends a very bad signal. Greg. It's that time of year. Our Greg Durou owns a high ground and keeping track of who's leaving, who's coming, who's going in the House, in the Senate. Juan Williams in the Hill today or yesterday, I should say, really writes it up of the Republicans leaving the House. I think this is underreported. You've got Buck, You've got Granger, You've got LESCo, You've got Sparks, on and on. Is this going to be even a more Trump Republican party? Not in a year, but in a matter of weeks it could be. Yes, and a lot of the names you mentioned are people who are disgusted. They can't take it anymore. I also think there's a growing chance, a very good chance, that the next Senate will elect a year from now, will be controlled by the Republicans. They have, I think, an easy chance to take the Senate. Now, I look at this as wildly underport. You know, we'll focus on mansion and that in Spenberg or Virginia. Have you seen it like this before? Is this normal changing of the chairs to musical chairs or is there something unique here? Well? I tell you, Tom, I think what is unusual is to have Democrats talking now openly about a need to get a different nominee. That's really unprecedented. You probably have to go back to LBJ who lost support in his own party. That makes the Democrats nervous, the fact that they could lose the Senate and lose it convincingly. We'll get back to that in one second, because I do want to get your view on that. But just to build on what you're talking about, the fact that Democrats are joining with Republicans, some of them, to back Mike Johnson's plan. Isn't this what got Kevin McCarthy ousted his House speakers Bingo, that's right, And I got to think that we could have a repeat. You only need like three or four at the most five no votes and this whole thing could fall apart. So I think that Johnson has to worry that he could suffer the exact same fate as Kevin McCarthy. And there's still are nine, at least nine ultra conservatives in his party who are going to vote against this, at least as for now. What's worse though? On an international stage, you were talking about no funding for Ukraine and Israel. Is that worse than a government shutdown in the US. I think a government shutdown has become so ordinary. A brief shutdown wouldn't be as serious as sending a signal to our allies that we can't support them. I mean, this, I think is really very, very unnerving. And one other point I'd make quickly. I do think the final outcome is Johnson having to kind of deal with Democrats. I think that's the only way we're going to get a deal in the next week or two is to have the two parties unite on this. What will be the ramifications of that. I call that doing a John Bayner for an international audience. We've seen this before. But then what is the outcome if he does that? The outcome is going to be an effort to Ouston. I still think it's less than fifty to fifty. I think they want to give him a victory. Tom, but you could see a lot of Republicans say this is totally unacceptable. Great, let's talk about the race for the presidency next year. The field is narrowing on the Republican sign and it looks like Nicki Hade starts to attract some money. What do you make of the moves we've seen in the past week, Greg Well, Tim Scott didn't surprise me in the least. I think that they're the strongest other than Trump, of course, has been Nicki Haley over the last few weeks. She's got real momentum. DeSantis does not. He didn't even mention his endorsement in Iowa from the govern I can't figure it out. That was so Weirch can't just jump in, What was that about? Why didn't that come up in the debate. I don't get it. She endorsed him, I'd be bragging about it, but he didn't even bring it up in the debate. That was mystifying, but it's still trunks to lose. Trump has said some extraordinary things in the last few days about how his opponents are vermin using, really even by his standards, exceptionally harsh language, but his numbers hold up. He still has the base, and that means we need to narrow the field potentially even more for the Republicans. Who's next to drop out? Greig maybe Ramaswami. He's got money, but I could see him drop out. He's got no traction. His numbers don't look good. I think DeSantis and Nicky Haley stay in, and probably Chris Christy stays in, and that's good theater. Well, at this point, maybe the field is narrowing on the Republican side, but in some ways it's actually widening on the Democratic side. You said that there's real fear and there are real calls within the Democratic Party to have some other options than President Biden. How realistic is that? Who is everyone coalescing around? Well, that's the problem, nobody. And I think one of the strongest things that Biden has is the lack of any clear successor, and I think because of that, he will be the nominee. Apparently In the last twenty four hours, he's been very angry, profane, criticizing people like David Axelrod. I think he feels that he should be the nominee. I think he will be the nominee. What do you think he's so upset about, Greg oh mocking him for his age. Probably more than anything else. You can't do much. Can't do much about that, That's true, Greg Valier of Jeff Investments, that any of us can do anything about that. Greg, appreciate you up desa. Subscribe to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live every weekday starting at seven am Eastern, on Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app, in in the Bloomberg Business app. You can watch us live on Bloomberg Television and always. I'm the Bloomberg Terminal. Thanks for listening. I'm Tom Keen, and this is BloombergSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Julian Emanuel, Evercore ISI Chief Equity & Quantitative Strategist, expects consolidation in the streaming industry in the coming years. Greg Valliere, AGF Investments Chief US Policy Strategist, discusses the third Republican primary debate. Cameron Dawson, Newedge Wealth Chief Investment Officer, says it's too early to know if the uplift in unemployment will barrel higher into next year. Geetha Ranganathan, Bloomberg Intelligence US Media Analyst, breaks down Disney's better-than-expected 4Q earnings. Ellen Wald, Atlantic Council Senior Fellow, discusses the global oil market as crude prices remain low.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance    Full transcript:  I'm Tom Keene, along with Jonathan Farrow and Lisa Abramowitz. Join us each day for insight from the best and economics, geopolitics, finance and investment. Subscribe to Bloomberg Surveillance on demand on app, Spotify and anywhere you get your podcasts, and always on Bloomberg dot Com, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App. Jitting a manuel jointed to surround a table Chief Equity just over at evercor SI jitting Good mornings here, Good morning. Have you been participating in this wonderful, beautiful thing that is an eight day winning streak. Yeah, we have, you know, several weeks ago we just felt that when you backed off of that five percent yield, And I know we've been talking about it, but it is the fact that in this world now for the last year and a half, where stocks and bonds have been positive correlated, if bond yields go down, stocks go up, and backing off of five percent was huge for the psychology. And now we've got this unexpected oil price plunge, which is even bigger for Cheryl, I'm with you. Those two points yesterday stood out for me. Break a four to fifty on a ten year break of eighty on Brent crude. At what point do these correlations start to break the other way? What brings up hot that change? Well, we are watching that very closely. And guess what, the high frequency data is really important because that chart you were talking about a few moments ago, with the unemployment rate rising from three to four to three nine in the past, when that starts to happen, it tends to snowball. But where we're going to get the initial read on that is that eight thirty jobless claims number starts edging over two hundred and fifty thousand, we get a little bit cautious. Three hundred thousand is where we know the economy is going to turn down. I'm supposed to fold in now A question on Ed Hyman's Hicksy and Islm theory and his disinflation theory into your stock babble, forget about it. I love the single sentence you have which pushes against all that malarkey by saying price is paramount. Right now, when you talk to Ed Hyman, how does a respond to you telling them your economics doesn't matter, price is paramount. I'll tell you how five weeks ago Ed Heyman started putting out in almost daily the act that gasoline lean prices started falling as the conflict was erupting. You already had the turn in gasoline prices completely, you know, devoid of real sort of prosperity with Hymen's disinflationary tendency or outright deflation in China. Look, if you look at the last fifteen years, you've had episodic times of that from again. Obviously the financial crisis is one of those times. But ultimately what it comes back to again for equity investors, for bond investors. First of all, the whole idea of getting a real return on money in this world now is actually a positive for financial assets. It's a positive for capital allocation, and long term, it's a positive for growth. And that's you know, that's part of the equity investing mindset. Do you need a long term view right now or do you just trade the short term. It's really difficult to have a long term view because of what we're talking about the inflection in the economy potentially happening. But if you take the super long term view, is that even if you get the recession that Ed's thinking we're going to get, that it's going to be mild in twenty twenty four. What you're left with is a labor market that has rebalanced. What you're left with is again a real cost of money, better capital allocation, and frankly, we've talked about this before, you have new technological developments like generative AI that is going to improve the productivity of corporate America over the long term. One of the main frustrations of this year was that pretty much everything everyone said at the beginning of the year has proven to be wrong, including that this would be the year that tech stocks would fade more meaningfully and you start to see a broadening out in the rally. Energy stocks would start to be the true leaders. You just actually moved away from an overweight and energy and are talking more about generative AI. It seems like the theme just keeps on being that the leaders will keep leading. Everything else will just have to figure out where they fit in. Well, look, again, the recession will probably, you know, to the extent that it does arrive in the next twelve months or so, rationalize some of this, but ultimately what it's going to do, and look, part of the consternation on equity investors' minds is the fact that the Russell two thousand is making new lows. Ultimately, you're going to get to a point where there will be an attractive price for the other four hundred and ninety three stocks away from the Magnificent seven, and you will get to an earnings reset. We think that's part of next year's narrative. This is the difficult question I think people have got to confront at the moment. Do I want to buy the recovery to the recession I've not had yet, given the damage we've seen in the small camps. You can pick up various places to back up the consumer discretionary story. Allines, for instance, which have come way off the peak back of the summer. Do I want to start picking up the pieces going into what could be a slow down next year. We think you need to be balanced. It's one of those things where again, given the lack of visibility into next year, what we always say, we've had a very nice run in recent weeks, and if you go back over the last year, it's been a very nice run off the October lows. You need to be comfortable with the fact that if the market comes in ten or fifteen percent, which it does in any typical year, as it did several weeks ago, that you're a buyer of the dips and whatever that asset allocation is to you. That's the kind of discipline you need to employ. Goldman speak to this as well. We've gone through their note this morning a few times. It's worth doing it again. The hard part's over. More disinflation is in store over the next year. On growth, they see limited risk of a recession, and they say this on central bank policy. Then this is a really really interesting point. An increased willingness of central banks to deliver insurance cuts it grows slows. Earlier this week, Ben later on this program of E Toro, was saying the FED put was back. Lisa and I looked at each other and almost spat out our water. The FED put is back insures cuts of growth slows. Is the old fetch story returning? No? Why are they wrong? No? Look, because there is an assumption that there is a reflex reaction to a minus GDP quarter. Thankfully we didn't see it in twenty twenty two when we had that, because if you had interrupted the rate hiking program, you wouldn't have gotten to where you are. And you can argue both sides of this case, but frankly, for US, there is a commitment, given the fact that core PCE is still solidly with a three handle, that you just can't go down that road unless it really looks like there's a severe economic downturn. And we still think there's enough savings left over so that won't be the case. Judy and awesome as a was Emmanuel have et a court joining us now to brief off the GOP debate. Last night, Gregory Vliate, US policy strategist at AGF Investments. Gregory stood on the floor of the GOP convention of two thousand and four, and it was a different Republican Party. George Bush Junior wanted a more hopeful America. What's going to be that slogan this summer for the Republicans? Well, I think they'll emphasize the economy. They'll state that Biden has not done a good job. Frankly I would disagree, but I think that they'll make it more about the economy than anything else. The really intriguing issues are abortion number one, number two. How much more involved are we going to get in Ukraine and Israel? What about the idea that they're losing elections, not doing as well in certain elections. It going to be the mix of that we just saw it can be from a year ago, November, etc. How do they start winning again? Well, I don't think you talk like Ramaswami. I think he talked himself off the boat last night. I don't see much of a future for him. Probably not much of a future for Tim Scott. So it's dwindling. You've really only got three challengers. DeSantis, who was okay last night but made a strategic error he didn't mention the governor of Iowa had endorsed him. I can't believe he didn't talk about that. And then you've got Nicky Haley. He'll stick around for a while, maybe Chris Christy, but we'll begin at twenty twenty four. I think with just two challengers to Trump, that would be DeSantis and Haley. Do you think either of them have a chance of taking Trump off the ticket? Who would either of them? Oh? No, not at all. I mean Trump would have to do something really egregious, and he's pretty much filled the role on that for the last couple of years. So no, I don't see anything, you know, barring a health issue, that will keep Trump from being the nominee. Meanwhile, President Biden is going to meet with the UAW leader today and the there's a real question of what he can do to shore up the image of bignomics, of what's happened in the economy, which some people are saying on paper doesn't look so bad, yet in practice, has a lot of people feeling like they want something different. Well, it's a good question, Liza. I'm told that within the White House, Trump Biden is angry, he feels he's done a pretty good job in the economy and gets no credit. So he's going to hit the road and try to make his case. The problem is an awful lot of Americans fear that we're not out of the woods, and there's still more inflation threats, food, gasoline still to come. Greg Valier one oh one. Folks, this is a great course to take in politics. You get it off the back of a matchbook. You can take Valier one oh one. Greg, Your value one oh one is fiscal issues at the day of the election don't matter. Are you telling me the debt and the deficit don't matter the first Tuesday of November, Well, when you look at net inter cost, you look at borrowing costs, this is becoming a major crisis for the bond market, and there's no mood in Congress whatsoever to dramatically cut the deficit. However, I think that once we get through Labor Day of this coming year, this stuff will be irrelevant. I think attitudes harden during the summer. If Trump is well ahead, he could pull us out. But I have a feeling that Biden will come back. I have a feeling that the Democrats all of a sudden are motivated because of what happened in Kentucky. Is a path of least resistance for the former president. Another tax cut that's going to be on the agenda. You're absolutely right, Tom, and I think with the Senate probably flipping, in the House probably flipping, you're going to have a climate that will be ripe for a huge argument on whether we extend the Trump tax cuts. I think we will. I think Trump will talk about tax cutting even though the deficit is enormous. Greg, I have to wonder whether this time is different. A lot of people come on the show. We'll say dysfunction in Washington, DC is the reason why yields have been flipping and flopping and going all over the place, and then they talk about a potential government shutdown and say markets won't care. Have we reached the point where market dysfunction is going to result from political dysfunction in DC in a more material way. Well, we're going to see probably another alleged crisis on November seventeenth if there's no budget. I don't think the markets will be all that concerned about it. I do worry about the credit agencies, you know, fitch S and p downgrading US debt, not just because of the size of our debt, but because things are so dysfunctional in getting a budget. Great to catch up, Greg, appreciate your input. Greg Vally. THEFJEFF investment's gone into next year, as Ed Marangi and Emmanuel. So are you a confirmed bull? Cameron? I think that given the setup into your end, we can expect some kind of Santa claus rally just because of tax loss dynamics into the end of the year. The largest weights in the index are up the most this year, which means that you don't have eager sellers to recognize tax games. This is very different than last year, where the largest weights in the index were down a lot people sold them and you effectively puked into the end of the year. What it's the proverbial puke into the end of the year? Okay, thank you? Can we say that on radio? We just did, Cameron seriously our Warner Brothers discovery yesterday. Puke as you call it. Okay, how does that handle by tax saw selling? Well? I think that it will magnify as we go into the end of the year. You look at the areas that are down the most. This is small caps, This is cyclicals, This is healthcare some of your defensives. These are the areas where people are looking for tax sace harvesting opportunities. The key point though, is that they're smaller weights in the index or they're not part of the index. So when we just look at the S and P five hundred, that could be something that supports it into end year. So help me here. Am I buying the index the S and P five hundred? And am I looking for buying opportunities in small camps? The financials, things that have struggled? What am I doing? I think that you have to look for opportunities and things that have struggled as you go into twenty twenty four, because we know that pain trades usually are reversal trades in leadership and just at the point where everybody throws in the towel and says, well, you can't own anything but the magnificent seven. These are the names that give you optionality on AI and they have the best earnings growth. Everybody crowds into them, that's typically the moment that that's when they start to lag. And so I think we have to have the imagination that other things could do well in twenty twenty four. Other than just the narrow leadership that we've had this year, the Tilson Slock of Apollo's writing questions for us this morning. This is the question he's asking in its most recent note. Everyone who's bullish on equities and lower rated credit should ask them sound where they think the labor market will be in three months. With the Fed on hold and not showing any signs of cutting anytime soon, what's your labor market bed With that in mind, we are having the ultimate debate is if we're seeing normalization or we're seeing weakening. And the challenge is that normalization is usually the gateway drug two weakening, meaning that you see a little easing that turns into a lot of easing. But we're not yet seeing definitive data yet to say that the uplift we've had in unemployment is going to barrel higher. The key thing to remember, though, the Fed itself in its SEP the Summary Economic Projections has unemployment going to four point one percent next year and they're not forecasting a recession. So that's going to be a key question of if we get that four point one percent, does that justify them easing policy? Is it okay to sort of say we don't care for now. Down the line, whatever happens will happen. In the meantime, we can dance in the head of a pin with oil prices coming off, yield coming lower, and risk appetite still available. Yeah, because if we think going into CPI next week, remember that gasoline prices are down ten percent over the month of October. That's very different over the summer months where gas prices were up a lot. It pinched consumer spending maybe a little bit at the margin. So that does create this beneficial environment. But I think it's important to remember twenty twenty two, we priced in the earnings recession. In twenty twenty three, twenty three, we priced in the earnings recovery in twenty four. What are we going to price in twenty twenty four as we looked at twenty twenty five, are we still confident that this entire economic setup can remain very strong, that unemployment won't be an issue, consumer spending can remain robust Given the lack of certainty around some of the outcomes, the potential outcomes with the economy, How nimble are you remaining How are you remaining nimble? To be able to adjust quickly. I think we have to remain completely nimble. We saw that over thet last couple of weeks where we went from deeply oversold to deeply over to getting close to being overbought. It means that technicals become really important. We can't get too lodged into narratives because narratives would have told you everything's ending back a couple of weeks ago. Be scared. Now the narratives are saying everything is fantastic. The thing is that we are at resistance when we look at technical levels forty four hundred very important for the s and P five hundred four and a half percent very important support for the tenure. How we interact with those resistance and support levels will be very indicative of the next couple of months. Speak to the people who listened to you and said, Okay, I'm really nervous, but I'm going to participate in this market and they own tech which literally on an hourly basis, has a bid right now. What's the character of that bid on the Magnificent seven. Well, it's extraordinarily strong. But then think about the difference in the setup going into twenty twenty two Magnificent seven earnings had been cut by about twenty percent over the course of the year. Now going into twenty twenty three, over the course of twenty three, Magnificent seven earnings had been revised higher by sixty seventy percent sent on average because of the better growth that they've had. So it's a much higher bar and I think that's where the discipline is is not trying to extrapolate too much of the experience of twenty three, get too crowded, and instead look for opportunities and areas that might be more left behind. You've been talking, Cameron about how difficult it is to follow the mood because it swings so massively from week to week. How much has the move that we've seen in yields underpinned your conviction that you can lean into the rally heading into your end. It certainly has helped. We've seen it play out in the valuation and now valuations are back to about eighteen and a half time's earnings. The question is is that the right valuation even given where yields are at four and a half percent, where that equity risk premium is The challenge with valuations though, is they are terrible timing tools and that they have no predictive power on a one year forward basis. So we can look at the market and say, hey, it's expensive here, expensive there, but that may not actually show up in price action for two, three, four years. And that's where that discipline of not chasing very high valuations comes in. When you have a longer holding period, you go breaking news TK on donuts? Is that where you want to go? DONI plural don't I? Yeah? Yeah, longer going far away the way a prime broker attracted a hedge fund. We can get you shares of krispy Kreme short. There's a in the East Coast, particularly in the krispy Kreme's more southern thing, and they're a different don I than what you get from Dunkin Donuts, which is, you know, there's cultures here. John, It's like it's like Greg's, but it's like American. Okay, all of a sudden, krispy Kreme nice video on radio. You are missing the making of the Magnificent. And the answer here is krispy Kreme is looking for a partnership with McDonald's. John Tower out with this and it's a mixed story of Ibada out there. But John Tower, a city group says first bite on d n ut. It's a McDonald's partnership that we may see. Do you know what you don't know? And I know this story already because Bramo shared it with me before Bramo breaking into the news industry and Fargo years and years ago for the first Crispy Kreme shop tre Tree story, true story. I covered it and people lined up. They camped out overnight to get the first Krispy krama. I went to interview that. You can't imagine that Bramo was what Bradma was like in local news, right, just get into a fluff. It was like, it's an investive piece. What are they doing with that? Money? Is unreal? Bramo and Farco, Yeah, I'm enough of a dunkin donut, which Krispy Kreme is just two sugary and sweet. Like camera doesn't help us out here, Krispy Kreamer duncan, he's never had a donut. There is nothing better than a hot, fresh Krispy Kreme donut straight from the friar. Nothing better, all right? The scripting at me in the control room shot there. Please let's make sure we're running at nine o'clock today. Look for Cameron Dawson had Krispy Creekdnie. What you need to know is it's April of twenty eleven. There was a show then Game of Thrones Winter Is Coming was the first episode. And that's where we are right now. With the screaming success in days of Blue Eye Samurai on Netflix. I'm watching it. I can't say enough about the shocking beauty of it. It is overwhelming, how it is game changing for streaming. Keitha Raganathan knows this. She's US media analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. And I would suggest Disney knows this as well. Githa boyd A's Disney need a Blue Eye Samurai. They certainly do. And that's one thing Tom that Bob Iger really emphasized yesterday. He said he is looking to reinvent the studio. Those are the words he used, and he really emphasized quality over quantity. So you spoke about how spectacular Blue Eyed summariz that's exactly what Disney is going to go after. You know, they talked about, you know, the studio having some kind of franchise fatigue. Too many TV series created for the streaming service. They're really kind of streaming down or cutting down, I would say, pairing down on a lot of the content costs. You know, Lisa was talking about where those savings are going to come from, a lot of that is them just really cutting down on content costs. So they took down content costs from thirty billion to twenty seven billion. For fiscal twenty twenty three, they're taking that down further to twenty five billion, and that is where you get that big, big free cash flow number for them as well. Eight billion dollars is what they're projecting for twenty twenty four, or sixty percent increase from this year. Now I get it, it's anime, it's animation, but the basic idea is blue Eyed Samurai is is non diversity as we could get in twenty twenty three. Is Disney moving on from the tone and temperament of the last three or four years. Is Eiger going back to something or new to something different? I think it's a it's a combination of everything, a tom because you know, he needs to go back to the drawing board. He knows that there hasn't really been a new Star Wars or a lucasfilm movie since twenty nineteen. Obviously, the Marvels is in its next kind of iteration, if you will. So there's a lot of things that he needs to do. But the biggest thing I think for them for the Disney studio, and this has kind of been a little bit shocking. And you bring up animation, and that's a really good point because a lot of their recent animated movies have actually not performed as well as you know, some of us would have expected. And the Pixar has kind of been, you know, has had kind of this string of misfires, if you will. And the studio that is really kind of giving them a run for the money is Universal with Illumination. We had, you know, you have Super Mario, you had Minions, all of these animated movies from Universal doing really really well. So Disney obviously going back to the drawing board and kind of doing a lot of rethinking and as Bob Iger said, reinventing the whole franchise. If Bob Biker was the movie is this nightmare the same quote, that's that's a great knocking well. I mean, he tried his best. And if there is you know, any person for the job, any person who can actually fix and rebuild Disney. I think it definitely is Bob Biger and he, you know, kind of delivered signature Bob Biger kind of news yesterday. You know, lots of good news, lots of nuggets of you know, lots of nuggets of good good, you know, optimistic news for investors to kind of hang on to. Obviously, there is a lot of work that remains to be done, but we do know that there are some real growth drivers for Disney. Whether it's the parks business that is seventy percent of Disney's operating income, you know, throwing out about ten billion dollars in operating profits and cash flow. So that definitely is is a huge growth pillar for the company. And then of course it is streaming and how they're kind of going to manage that whole business. You know, we know that they're in the process of consolidating Hulu. You know, the big question is how they're going to manage the esp and transition. And you know, whether that then that Disney bundle, the streaming bundle, really becomes the competitor, a true competitor to Netflix. Is rebuilding a euphemism for shutting it down in terms of streamlining certain businesses and getting off selling the rest of it. Yeah, so he seemed to actually walk back a little bit of you know, the linear TV commentary. I know we've talked a lot about ABC and some of the other networks kind of being up for sale, but he also did say that there is a huge cost opportunity when it comes to you know, those linear networks, and so they've actually, you know, the Charter deal that they recently inked was was kind of a catalyst for them kind of you know, shutting down a lot of you know, the smaller networks networks that they are that they don't consider core, and I think that's what they're going to do. They are definitely going to streamline the business. You're absolutely right, Lisa. I'm not sure when or how the sale is necessarily going to happen, but he did Eigers seem to suggest that even if a sale doesn't happen right away, there are a lot of synergies and there are a lot of cost efficiencies that they can hopefully extract over the next few months. Okay, so this one's a tough one to answer, but explore the question with us if you can. Tom mentioned who's buying. If they're selling, who's buying Where did the buyers come from? So it could be private equity. I mean we know that there have there has been interest from certain parties Byron Island, but Byron Allen was one who kind of made a bid for for you know, the ABC and some of the networks. You know, again, private equity would always is interested in, you know, the TV assets because they do. Yes, it is an industry that is in secular decline, but at the end of the day, it does throughout a lot of cash and that is valuable. So yeah, again it's a little bit of a wait and watch. I mean there have been there has been some chatter about whether the leagues would be interested in kind of going and getting a broadcast asset. I mean broadcast assets like ABC don't come up for sale very often, so you know, maybe it is something that that the league and a leak can potentially consider for reach interesting. Gaitha, appreciate the update. You'll valuable. We appreciate your time. Geithor Reconnaz and the have Bloomberg Intelligence. Ellen Wall joining us now Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council and author of Saudi Inc. Ellen to that point, Saudi's energy minister came out and said, it has nothing to do with demand, This is just price manipulation. Demand is still very strong. What did you make of that? Well, I think that he always has a bone to pick with the as he called him, the speculators, So I'm not surprised to see him talking about how, you know, this is all a financial thing and it's all due to speculators and it's not a you know, supply demand issue. But I think, you know, obviously there's always you know, speculation in the market, and we did see a whole lot of fund managers dumping oil off the futures this past week, so I'm sure he's focused on that. But the fact remains that the market is reacting to what it thinks is lower demand from China, and whether or not that's actually true, I think remains to be seen. It's always difficult to gauge what exactly is going on in China. What the market's reacting to was news that refining margins are soft, and you know, Chinese refineries aren't making as much, and so you know they're interpreting that as weak demand. Now, how does that translate into whether China reduces its imports, and there was some indication that they are going to be reducing oil imports. In fact, one of the interesting things that we've seen is that Iranian oil exports in September and October have been lower than they were in August. They hit a big high in August, but now we're seeing declines and there's some speculation that may be due to the sanctions enforcement, but it's much more likely due to declining demand from China. And we've got Saudi y A holding a million barrels a day off the market. I do think Saudi Arabia is in the best position to be able to gauge Chinese demand, and it may be that this Chinese demand is looking a bit soft now. But you know, Abdozi's been someone is looking at the longer picture and the longer game, and he sees that that is strong well. And with great respect to your book, which is definitive, we can take these tensions at least back to the Saudi Yemeni War of nineteen thirty four. The Ibn Saud family has dealt with this for pushing one hundred years the distance to the south. Give us the modern treatment of how Riodd and Jiada look at Yemen today. Yemen is basically a thorn in their side right now. They don't like the Houthies, any group like the Houthies has Bulah Hamas. All of those groups, while well, you might think that ideologically there are similarities and matchups there, they are essentially a threat to the Saudi monarchy. The Saudi monarchy is like, you know, they're they're like the stated old you know, conservative guy who always votes the same way and always says the same thing for breakfast. You know, they're they're the status quo. And any group that's looking to change the status quo, even if there are similarities in terms of say religious extremism or religious ideology, that's seen as a threat. And what's a bit disturbing is that despite prolonged military campaigns by the Saudis and the UAE, they haven't been able to dislodge the Whoi's from Yemen. In fact, if anything, they're more entrenched. And so I do think that given the fact that the who these are at least claiming to be involved in the Israel Hamas conflict, you'll be interesting to see if the Saudis maybe use this as an excuse to really try to get them out of Yemen once and for all, or if they'll be a bit embarrassed by somebody else taking them out. And then the conservative guy, as you call Saudi Arabia their treatment of the shades of Palestine, how do you interpret that, doctor Wald? Now that that is a big question, because what we've got on one hand is King Salmon, who is nominally the king of Saudi Arabia, and he is vehemently I mean vehemently anti Israel pro Palestinian. I mean, this is a guy who thinks that, you know, the Mossad was responsible for nine to eleven and has said so, you know, in public on television. So he is a huge barrier to any kind of reprochement between Saudi Arabia and Israel. That being said, his son, who's really doing most of the ruling, the day to day ruling, seems much more inclined to use rapprochemant with Israel as a way to get what he wants or what he thinks he needs from the United States. And in fact, it seemed like that was about to be a very successful deal before this latest conflict derailed all that, and I don't think that the general battle, you know, the general lines that are drawn here are going to change. But I do think, you know, if if King Solomon wasn't wasn't there, I think we'd see a much faster progression towards Saudi Israeli normalization. I don't think we're going to see quite with the UAE or Jordan has But I do think that that he that that NBS sees it as a beneficial thing or at least a really good UH tool to get other things that he needs, like support for obtaining nuclear power and military pact with the United States. Just real quick here, how does Saudi Arabia view the production in the US. It's gotten to a record level and made all of these concerns about demand. I think that they they have kind of come to terms with the fact that the US is going to produce, with the US is going to produce, and there really isn't much they can do about it. I think they were probably pretty pleased to see that there's more consolidation in the oil industry. I think that they see that as good for production and for companies who are looking at the signs of supply and demand and aren't just pumping, pumping, pumping just to stay ahead the way that we saw in twenty fifteen, twenty sixteen, and so I think that they see this as you know, this is where it is right now, and it's not always necessarily going to be this high. Ell in a wonderful brief, particularly those comments on Yemen. Thank you so much, Ellen Wald. Atlanta Council can't say enough about Saudi inc. It is absolutely definitive. Subscribe to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast on Apple, Spotify and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live every weekday starting at seven am Eastern Bloomberg dot Com, the iHeartRadio app tune In, and the Blue Bomberg Business app. You can watch us live on Bloomberg Television and always. I'm the Bloomberg Terminal. Thanks for listening. I'm Tom Keen, and this is BloombergSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On today's podcast: 1) Former US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said both Israel and the Palestinians need new leadership in order to have a chance of achieving a peace deal once the current war in the Gaza Strip ends. 2) The five Republicans scrapping to fashion themselves as the alternative to Donald Trump opened their debate Wednesday night blaming the former president for the party's latest election embarrassment — then spent the next 90 minutes doing little to distinguish themselves from the GOP frontrunner. 3) Donald Trump's daughter Ivanka Trump testified she had no role in preparing his allegedly inflated financial statements and wasn't aware that he was claiming a net worth of more than $4 billion as she was trying to get a Trump Organization loan for the Doral golf club in Florida in 2011 3) Missed your favorite actors? After nearly four months of striking, they're coming back. Wednesday's deal between striking actors and studios and streaming services won't immediately restore filming to its full swing. That will take months. 5) Walt Disney, embroiled in another fight with activist investor Nelson Peltz, posted fourth-quarter profit that beat analysts' expectations and said it will cut an additional $2 billion in expenses. Disney stock jumps.  Full Transcript: Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager and I'm Karen Moscow. Here are the stories we're following today. We begin with the latest developments in the war in the Middle East. The Pentagon says the US IS carried out an airstrike on a weapons warehouse in eastern Syria. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin says the self defense strike was in retaliation for attacks on American forces in Iraq and Syria. Meanwhile, Israel says some fifty thousand more Palestinians have fled to southern Gaza as Israel's army pushes deeper in to Hamas strongholds in the north of the territory. All this as, Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton says, both Israel and the Palestinians need new leadership. So I think you have to create the environment in which there is a chance to revitalize the peace process and a potential for a two state solution. Hamas is not interested in a two state solution. They are dedicated to the destruction of Israel. That is in their charter. If you've been watching lots of different outlets over the last month, that is what the leaders of Hamas say, you know they want to destroy Israel. Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton added that while Israel's unlikely to agree to a ceasefire that would benefit Hamas, it probably will accept pauses to allow aid to reach civilians in Gaza. Clinton made the comments in an interview with Bloomberg's editor in chief John Micklethwaite at the Bloomberg New Economy Forum in Singapore. Well Nathan. The war in the Middle East was a major topic at last night's Republican presidential debate in Miami. The five candidates on the NBC stage were united in support of Israel, including Florida Governor Ronda Santis. I would be telling BB finish the job once and for all with these butchers. Come on, they're proris, their massacring innocent people. But there were devides over a to Ukraine and how to approach China. Of ak Ramaswami and Nikki Haley had a sharp exchange over banning TikTok in the last debate. She made fun of me for actually joining TikTok while her own daughter was actually using the app for a long time. So you might want to take care of your family first. Read my appreciation daughter man. Nikki Haley and the other candidates also went after front runner Donald Trump for skipping the debate. Jeanie she and Zano is a politics contributor for Bloomberg. She said he was a good president for the time, but he is not the right president for now. And then she pointed to the fact that he created eight trillion dollars in debt, he's wrong on Ukraine now, and the fact that we can't live in the past. Genie she Andzano notes the former president held a rally ten miles away rather than appearing on the debate stage. Meanwhile, Nathan House Republicans have issued subpoenas to members of President Biden's family. The move to subpoena the president's son Hunter and brother James comes as Republicans look to gain ground in their nearly year long investigation. So far, they have failed to uncover evidence directly implicating the President in any wrongdoing. Now to the latest developments caring in the New York Front trial of Donald Trump, his daughter Ivanka's day on the witness stand was filled with denials of any knowledge of her family's net worth calculations. Sloomberg's Ed Baxter has the story. She says she didn't know that her dad was claiming and that worth of more than four billion dollars as she tried to get a loan for the Durreal Golf Club in Florida. She flatly says she's not involved in his personal financial statements. Attorney General Letitia James says, not true. Ivanka Trump secured negotiated loans to obtain favorable terms based on fraudulent statements of financial condition, and she says the Trumps cannot hide from the truth. The Attorney General has wrested Ad Baxter. Bloomberg Radio all right ed, thanks well. From New York to Hollywood. The actors' union has reached a deal with studios to end its strike. Can we get the latest from Bloomberg's Doun Prisner. The vote by the union's Theatrical Committee was unanimous. Common ground was found on issues ranging from the use of artificial intelligence to payment from streaming services, and now, after four months, the strike by some one hundred and sixty thousand actors is over. The previously striking screenwriters have been back on the job for more than a month, so now production of scripted TV shows and movies can resume. And like the writers, the Actors' Union benefited from direct involvement in the talks by some of the most powerful people in Hollywood in New York. I'm Doug Prisner, Bloomberg Radio. All right, Doug, thanks now. Some of those most powerful people included Bob Eiger, and the settlement comes the same day Eigers Walt Disney Company posted fourth quarter profit that beat analyst estimates. Disney also says it'll cut an additional two billion dollars in expenses. Bob Iger says his company will also launch a beta trial bundle of Disney Plus and Hulu next month. We expected Hulu on Disney Plus will result in increased engagement, greater advertising opportunities, lower churn, and reduced customer acquisition cost, thereby increasing our overall margins. Man Right now, shares of Bob Bigers Walt Disney Company are higher by four percent in early trading. Well Nathan, Another CEO, is making news this morning. Bank of America's Brian moynihan said his company has a succession plan in place and that nothing is left a chance in deciding on his eventual replacement. Moynahan, who made the remarks at the Reuters Next conference, took the helm in twenty ten in the wake of the global financial crisis. And there's another bank in the spotlight this morning, Karen. That would be Morgan Stanley. Its wealth management business is under Federal Reserve scrutiny, sources say the New York based banks top regulators pressing whether the firm is taking adequate measures to prevent potential money laundering by wealthy clients outside the US. Representatives for the FED and Morgan Stanley declined to comment. And it's time now for a look at some of the other stories making news around the world. For that, we're joined by Bloomberg's John Tucker, John Good morning, Hey, Good morning Karen. Former President Donald Trump did skip the third uop to at in Miami, instead holding a campaign rally about ten miles away in Heyaliah twenty twenty four is our final battle. Stand with me in the fight. We will finish the job that we started so brilliantly seven years ago. We never had a country like we had just three years ago. Meantime, at judge in Michigan expected to hear arguments today whether the Secretary of State there has the authority to keep Donald Trump's name off state ballots for president. Various groups have filed similar lawsuits in other states, portraying Trump as the insider of the January sixth Capitol riot. They point to part of the Constitution the prohibits a person from running for federal office if they've engaged in insurrection or rebellion. Industry regulators say power grades that supply more than half of the US population may run short of electricity during an extended cold snap or severe storm over the coming winter. That story in this report from Bloomberg's Charlie Pellett. The North American Electric Reliability Corps as regional system operators in a vast swath of the country, stretching from Texas to New England, are at risk of insufficient electricity supplies during peak winter conditions. The report came in a winter reliability assessment which also showed Quebec and Saskatchewan facing the threat of power shortfalls. The outlook is even more dire than last year's report, which set a quarter of Americans were at risk of cold weather power emergencies in New York Charlie Pellett Bloomberg Radio, the population of the US climbed to about three hundred seventy million and twenty eighty before reversing course starting to fall before the turn of the century. This according to News Census Bureau projections and the bureau's most likely scenario, the number of people sixty five or older, we'll overtake the number under eighteen in just six years. Add A nineteen thirty two painting by Pablo Picasso, fem A la Montre, sold for one hundred and thirty nine point three million dollars last night at Sotheby's in New York. At a stroke, it becomes the second most expensive piece by the artist to santl at auction. Global News twenty four hours a day and whenever you want it with Bloomberg News Now. I'm John Tucker and this is Bloomberg Karen. All right, John, thank you well. We do bring you news throughout the day right here on Bloomberg Radio. But now, as John said, you can get the latest news on demand whenever you want it. Subscribe to Bloomberg News Now to get the latest headlines at the click of a button. Get informed on your schedule. You can listen and subscribe to Bloomberg News Now on the Bloomberg Business app, Bloomberg dut Plus, Apples, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Four off time now for the Bloomberg Sports Update with John Stashauer, John Karen. The NBA took Tuesday off to let everyone vote back with a busy night on Wednesday, including showdowns in the East and West. Both games won by home teams by three points. In Philadelphia, the Sixers made it six wins in a row. They beat the Celtics one oh six to one oh three. They lost to Boston to the second round of last year's playoffs, when they blew a three to two series lead. The Sixers had the best record in the East and the Denver Nuggets, defending NBA champs, had the best record in the league eight and one. They beat Golden State one o eight to one oh five. N Koleokus scored thirty five points. Klay Thompson couldn't get a shot off at the buzzer as he tried to tie the game. Victor Wembin Yama's first game in New York it didn't go well. He scored only fourteen points, not only four of fourteen. The Spurs lost to the Knicks one twenty six to one oh five. The Lakers got blown out at U and lost by thirty four Lakers or zero to five on the road. Shay Gilgess Alexander report in forty three points for Oklahoma City in a win over Cleveland. Capitals lost in overtime Florida one four to three. Ron Washington, a seventy one year old baseball lifer, named the new manager of the Los Angeles Angels. He managed the Texas Rangers for eight years, won a couple of tenants there, but he has not managed in the big leagues since twenty fourteen. Not a great NFL game tonight Chicago and Carolina. The Bears will again be quarterbacked by the undrafted rookie Tyson Badge in third straight week as Justin Field's not ready to return from the injured thump. John stash Ellert Bloomberg Sports from coast to coast, from New York to San Francisco, Boston to Washington, DC, nationwide on Syrias Exam the Bloomberg Business Appen Bloomberg dot Com. This is Bloomberg Daybreak. Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager. We want to take you to Singapore now and the Bloomberg New Economy Forum, where world leaders have been weighing in on the economy and geopolitical risks, including former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. She sat down with Bloomberg News Editor in chief John Micklethwaite to discuss Israel, Ukraine, China, and the future of the United States. They began with a discussion on President Biden's upcoming meeting with Chinese President She Jinping. Part of the reason it was, you know, somewhat more positive when I was there and we had a very regular set of meetings is because Hu Jintao was a Chinese leader who decided he would not stay for life, he would fulfill his term, he would follow the guidance of the Chinese Communist Party, there would be a transition a new group of leaders. You know, some holdovers, but you know, other new faces would be in power, and so there could be a constant renewing of both the Chinese government and through that the American relationship. Once she Jin Ping decided to stay in office for life, that creates a lot of you know, challenges within their own system, and I think we're seeing some of that. And so part of what I hope will come out of this meeting is an attitude by President Shei that you know, he wants to get back to some kind of regular order, that he sees it in China's interests to really dig in with the President Biden, develop a platform for discussions for problem solving, really sending that signal. I think he will find a receptive partner with President Biden if that's available. Israel and Hamas, I think you are in favor of a humanitarian pause or pauses, but you're against the SIESFA which many people in this region asking for. You know, the numbers of dead arising rapidly ten thousand according to Hamas Italy, but you still got like eighty nine dead at the UN which is a gigantic number for United Nations, the Red Crescent and so on. Can you perhaps explain why you don't want to cease far? There is a difference between a ceasefire which would in effect freeze the situation in Hamas's favor. I negotiated a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in November of twenty twelve, and at that point both parties did not want to go any further. The breaching of a pre existing ceasefire by Hamas with rockets being sent into Israel had not caused a lot of damage, and there also had not been the development of the infrastructure of terror that Hamas has built in Gaza. I don't know any nation represented at the New Economy Forum faced with the kind of assault that Israel was faced with by Hamas that would not be number one defending itself and number two trying to prevent it from happening again, because with every other cease fire it did happen again until finally we got to the breach of a ceasefire which was in existence on October seventh with the terrible attack by Hamas. So a ceasefire, if it were possible which frankly, I don't think is possible. I don't think you know, Israel is interested in a ceasefire at this point, but they are perhaps willing to have what we do call humanitarian pauses for the purpose of both getting aid in to try to assist the civilians in Gaza, but also getting the more than two hundred and forty hostages out. You know, these hostages are not just Israeli. One of the biggest groups of hostages are workers from Thailand who are working on farms in Israel. So there is a global dimension to the hostages that a pause could perhaps inspire some willingness on the part of Hamas to let the hostages go. But a ceasefire that would freeze the situation at this point is not something that is going to, you know, really undermine Hamas's capacity, especially with two hundred miles of tunnels that they have constructed over the last decade, to launch yet another attack on Israel, and that would be intolerable, and I think it would be intolerable for you know, any nation represented at the forum. Well, this seemed to be kind of two big theories going on about this war. One is that this is the end of the peace process, the other, which you've championed. The other is that this is if nothing else, this will prompt finally some move towards the two state solution. Which which which side of that do you fit on? Well? I actually try to fit on both, and I'll tell you, John, I think it's important to have some aspiration, some goal that we can look toward. Many of us, my husband particularly, worked very hard on trying to get a two state solution, and it, frankly, in retrospect, is heartbreaking that Yaser Arafat walked away from the deal that Bill had broker between Israel and the Palestinian authority back in two thousand. There could have been a Palestinian state up to ninety seven percent of the land from the nineteen forty eight division that would have been in existence for twenty three years now. So I think you have to create the environment in which there is a chance to revitalize the peace process and a potential for a two state solution. Hamas is not interested in a two state solution. They are dedicated to the destruction of Israel. That is in their charter. If you've been watching lots of different outlets over the last month. That is what the leaders of Hamas say. You know, they want to destroy Israel. So Hamas is not a partner for any kind of peace or two state solution. But the Palestinian authority might one time again be. New leadership in Gaza might again be So we have to get to a point where that's possible. Do you think that Benuine Nasignol, who is a partner for a two state solution. I don't think there is any evidence of that. I think the Israeli people will have to decide about his leadership. I think there will be investigations about what led up to and what happened on October the seventh. But I think there needs to be new leadership of the Israelis and the Palestinians in order to have any chance at some kind of peace deal, especially a two state solution. There's one area just I lost you once serious one, then that are slightly more amusing one. But on the serious side, you look at things like Ukraine. At the moment, there is definitely a strategy among America's enemies. You could see putin waiting perhaps for Trump, trying to dig in and wait, but also I think also counting on Congress where you feel that Congress feels over extended. It's got the border, it's got spotenningh I'm in Israel. Do you worry about America feeling as if it's over extended and unable to carry out the kind of global policies that you believed in. Well up until now, the Biden administration has done quite a remarkable job. I mean, they put together a coalition to support Ukraine, which I think many people would have thought unlikely when Biden took office. So I do think the legislative agenda that Biden got passed is also another very strong indicator of being able to get things done. I do agree with you that it is going to be challenging in the Congress to get more funding for Ukraine to provide the funding Israel needs to provide the kind of support that is required to keep our alliances strong around the world. But at the end of the day, I think the president will get that. And I also think there's an opportunity for the President because the Republicans in the Senate have said, you know, we're on board with all of this, but we want to make some changes at the border. I think that, you know, the Democrats should negotiate to see what kinds of changes would be palatable for the Democrats in order to secure the border, in order to make it clear that you know, Democrats want a secure border and a humane system for people who are trying to enter the United States, but we want it to be orderly. So I think there's going to be a lot of tough negotiation. At the end, I think the president will get what he needs. One very last things on the Republican side, you will have noticed how much traction Nicky Haley has been getting as a woman who was the American ambassador the UN. Do you think that Biden was to stumble that might be room for another woman with slightly more foreign policy. Well, I don't know the answer to that, but I hope Biden doesn't stumble. I hope that he goes all the way to the finish line because I think he's earned it, he deserves it, and you know, honestly, the only real argument or complaint is that he's old. And you know what, I think everybody who's his age would be very happy if they were as productive as he is and has gotten as much done as he has, and traveled the schedule he's traveled, so you know, I'm going to continue to support him, and I think he's our best candidate for twenty twenty four. And that was former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton speaking with Bloomberg News Editor in chief John Mikelthwaite. This is Bloomberg day Break Today, your morning brief on the story's making news from Wall Street to Washington and beyond. Look for us on your podcast feed at six am Eastern each morning, on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. You can also listen live each morning starting at five am Wall Street time on Bloomberg eleven three to zero in New York, Bloomberg ninety nine to one in Washington, Bloomberg one oh six to one in Boston, and Bloomberg ninety sixty in San Francisco. Our flagship New York station is also available on your Amazon Alexa devices. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty plus. Listen coast to coast on the Bloomberg Business app, SERIUSXM, the iHeartRadio app, and on Bloomberg dot Com. I'm Nathan Hager and I'm Karen Moscow. Join us again tomorrow morning for all the news you need to start your day right here on Bloomberg DaybreakSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On today's podcast: 1) Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he sees his country having security control over Gaza for an “indefinite period,” suggesting it will maintain that role even after fighting in the besieged territory ends. 2) Donald Trump took to the witness stand Monday morning and within minutes turned his day in court into a live Truth Social post. No one understands real estate like he does, Trump testified, and the banks knew what they were doing. The judge sitting next to him is “biased,” the court is a “fraud” and the case against him “crazy,” Trump said, voice rising. 3) Former high-flying startup WeWork filed for bankruptcy listing nearly $19 billion of debts, a fresh low for the co-working company that struggled to recover from the pandemic. 4) In football, the Los Angeles Chargers break the New York Jets 3-Game win streak Full transcript: Good morning. I'm Nathan Hager and I'm Karen Moscow. Here are the stories we're following today. We begin with the war in the Middle East. Today marks one month since the Hamas attack in southern Israel that's set off the conflict. Now, the Hamas run health ministry in Gaza says more than ten thousand people have been killed since the fighting began on October seventh, but Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is rejecting calls for a ceasefire. There'll be no ceasefire, general ceasefire in Gaza without the release of our hostages. As far as tactical little pauses an hour here, an hour there, we've had them before. I suppose we'll check the circumstances in order to enable goods, umanitarian goods to come in or our hostages individual hostages to leave. But I don't think there's going to be a general seas far and Prime Minister Natanyah, who tells ABC News Israel could have security control over Gaza for an extended period. Israeli military spokesman Peter Lerner tells Bloomberg Radio the goal of war is to dismantle humous as a governing authority and a terrorist entity. Of course, we understand that that role, that goal is a very expensive goal and it will take time. And so the operation itself, the war itself, is an open ended war. It so we don't have any power glass counting the minutes until we end. And you can listen back to our entire interview with Israeli military spokesman Peter Lerner on the Bloomberg Talks podcast. Well, Nathan, back here in the US, the civil trial continues in New York against Donald Trump. It was a fiery day one. On the witness stand for the former president of Bloomberg's, Ed Baxter has the story. Trump yelled at the judge, said he was biased, and the court was a fraud, was a skill, and this is the case. It should have an attorney general. Letitia James says she got what she needed. At the end of the day, the documentary evidence demonstrated that, in fact, he falsely inflated his assets, and Bloomberg's Patricia Hurtado says she's never seen anything like it. He was claiming that I've done real estate for fifty years and as a developer, basically I have a right to just declare magically what Something's worth. Daughter Ivanka is on the stand Wednesday Ed Baxter Bloomberg Radio. Okay and thank you now. Donald Trump will not be participating in tomorrow Night's Republican presidential debate in Miami. Five candidates will. They are Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Vivek Ramaswami, Senator Tim Scott, and former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie. Former White House chief of staff mc mulvaney says Trump's decision not to participate may have repercussions. I think it may come back to haunt him when Joe Biden, assuming Bibes's the Democrat nominee, has the ability then with good reason to say, oh, Donald, you didn't debate in the primary, I'm not debating you in the general. And Trump would be desperate for a debate headhead against Bid and Bide would be desperate for an excuse not to do one. And former Trump White House Chief of Staff mcmulvaney says Nicky Haley is the one with the most to gain from this debate. Mulvaney was on Bloomberg Sound On with Joe Matthew. You can catch the program one pm Eastern on Bloomberg Radio or listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts. Well, Nathan, Before we get to that Republican debate tomorrow, voters head to the polls today to vote on some key issues. So Hio residents will decide if access to abortion care should be enshrined in the state's constitution. It'll be closely watched nationally as a gauge of a key issue ahead of the twenty twenty four presidential elections. And in Virginia, Republican Governor Glenn Younkin is campaigning hard for his party to hold the state House and reclaim the Senate majority GOP victories. Goodline Youngkin up as a potential alternative to Donald Trump as the party's twenty twenty four presidential nominee. Well, Karen, let's turn now to the markets. We're watching shares of ubs they are hired by more than three percent. In Europe, the Swiss Bank, which took over Credit Sweee earlier this year, reported stronger than expected client inflows. We get more from Bloomberg's Guy Johnson in Zurich. We are getting some stabilization in terms of client money to keep the wealth management division that is really important. So we managed to stabilize that that may be give than the opportunity to start to kind of accelerate things here a little bit. But these circle numbers are basically just bridge numbers. We we waiting for the fullier numbers and at that point we're going to get a strategy update. At that point, we're going to get a clear idea of where Sergio Mossy, the CEO, and the rest of the team are going to take this combined Edsito mean Bloomberg Sky Johnson says overall, UBS posted a quarterly net loss of seven hundred and eighty five million dollars, its first quarterly loss in almost six years. Well Staying in the banking industry, Nathan Morgan Stanley's James Gorman, who's preparing to step down as CEO at the end of this year, says he will vacate his post as chairman by the end of twenty twenty four. Gorman made the comments in an interview at a nie K forum in Tokyo. Ted Pick, a co president and three decade veteran of the firm, will be elevated to the top role in January, and turning to the US economy, Karen, it is too early to declare victory over inflation. That's the view from Minneapolis Fed President Neil Kashkari. We're making progress. The job market remains strong, the unemployment rate is still quite low at around three point nine percent, So overall the fundamentals are healthy. But we haven't completely solved the inflation problem. We still have more work ahead of us to get it done. Speaking of Fox News, Minneapolis Fed chief Neil cash Care ads he's nervous about declaring victory on inflation too soon. Well. In Corporate News, Nathan, it was once a high flying startup, and now we Work has filed for bankruptcy. The company said had struck a restructuring agreement with creditors and with streamline its rental portfolio of office space. We works collapse as the culmination of a year's long saga for the company, which was once the biggest office tenant in Manhattan. And Karen Bloomberg News has learned SpaceX's on track to book revenues of about nine billion dollars this year across its Rocket launch and Starlink businesses. SpaceX has projected a rise to around fifteen billion in twenty twenty four. The figures represent a rare look into the finances of the Elon Musk led company, which sells commercial space on its reusable rockets as well as Internet beamed down from a constellation of satellites. Right, Nathan, thanks time now for look at some of the other stories making news around the world. For that, we're joined by Bloomberg's John Tucker. John, good morning, and good morning, Karon. The US government's debt interest build has now soared passed one trillion dollars. The story in this report this morning from Bloomberg's Jeff Bellinger. Bloomberg analysis shows annualized interest payments on the US government debt pile climb past one trillion dollars at the end of last month. That amount has doubled in the past nineteen months and is equivalent to fifteen point nine percent of the entire federal budget for fiscal year twenty twenty two. The worsening metrics may reignite debate about the US fiscal path amid heavy borrowing from Washington. That dynamic has already helped to drive up bond yields, and it led Fitch Ratings to downgrade US government debt in August Jeff Bullinger, Bloomberg Radio. The Supreme Corps today is taking up a challenge to a federal law that prohibits people from having guns if they're under a court order to stay away from their spouse, partner, or or other family members. The Federal Appeals Court in New Orleans struck down the law. Following the Supreme Court's bruined decision. In June of twenty twenty two, I Well Governor Kim Reynolds officially throwing her support behind Florida's governor for the Republican presidential nomination, Ron DeSantis is the person that we need leading this country. At ABC News. IPS's polls shows if the Republican Party nominates someone other than former President Trump, more Republicans said it would be more likely to turn out and vote an election day. Talks with striking Hollywood actors are ongoing after the union rejected with the studios called their last best and final offer. The Strength started in July. Netflix co CEO Ted Sorrando says he's hopeful and agreement will be reached soon. We're in the business of telling stories. That's what we want to do every day. So his grind to a hall for a few months, and so we're going to try our best to get things up and running and get the output. Becka for our fans too. Ted sarandas with Netflix, spoke to Reuters. Elon Musk's company, Neurrolink, is seeking a volunteer for its first clinical trial, as looking for someone willing to have a chunk of their skull removed by a surgeon so a large robot can insert a series of electrodes and super thin wires into their brain. Global news twenty four hours a day and whatever you want it with Bloomberg News Now. I'm John Tucker and this is Bloomberg Karen. All right, John, thank you well. We do bring you news throughout the day right here on Bloomberg Radio. But as John said, you can now get the latest news on demand whenever you want it. Subscribe to Bloomberg News Now to get the latest headlines at the click of a button. Get informed on your schedule. You can listen and subscribe to Bloomberg News Now on the Bloomberg Business app, Bloomberg dot Com, plus apples, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Time now for the Bloomberg Sports Update. Here's John stash Hour, John Karen, what did I football? The cab Week nine Chargers at the Jets and LA's Darius Davis ran a punt back eighty seven yards. I'm minted forty five into the game. Chargers went on to have eight sacks and crushed the Jets twenty seven to six. Both teams are now four and four. The Celtics are five and one. Their first loss of the season came in overtime at Minnesota, one fourteen to one oh nine. The Sixers are five and one. Joel mbing forty eight points in a one forty six to one twenty eight win over Washington. The Wizards are one and five. Steph Curry scored thirty four. Golden State won at Detroit, won twenty to one. Oh nine. Bruins keeping the hot start. They're ten to one and one. They've beaten Florida twice. They were stunned by the Panthers in the playoffs last season, Boston won three to two. College basketball is underway a lot of blowouts, including number one Kansas winning by forty three. Second ranked Duke won by thirty eight, Third ranked Perdue won by fifty three, but Michigan State, ranked fourth in the country, stunned in overtime, lost to James Madison. Michigan State's longtime coach Tom Izzo nephew as an assistant for James Madison. Three baseball teams have new managers. The Cleveland Guardians hired thirty nine year old Stephen Boyd, just recently retired as the player, spent last season as a low level coach in Seattle. He replaces They're retiring Terry francona great counsel, leaving Milwaukee after nine years with the Brewers, but stayin in the NL Central. He's the new manager of the Cubs. The Mets new manager is his former Yankee coach, Carlos Mendoza. John Stanshiawer Bloomberg Sports from coast to coast, from New York to San Francisco, Boston to Washington, DC, nationwide on SYRIASXAM, the Bloomberg Business app in Bloomberg dot Com. This is Bloomberg Daybreak. Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager. It has now been one month since the deadly Hamas attack in southern Israel and the retaliatory war in Gaza shows little sign of slowing. The Israeli military says it has Gaza City surrounded and is moving closer to the city the center as it carries out operations from the ground and air, while the Hamas run health ministry in Gaza says the death toll from this month of war has now passed ten thousand. For the latest were joined by Bloomberg News Israel government and economy reporter Galite Alstein Ghalite, good morning. We are one month into this war. Given what we're hearing from Israeli leaders in the political and military spheres, what could month two look like? Yeah, so, actually we've been hearing on Prime Minister in Nathaniel On tonight, he speaks to NBABC News in an interview. He references the talks of a possible ceasefire in the Gazza striep, and he says that it's totally dependent on the release of all Israelis being held hostage by Hamas. However, he does say that Israel could allow tactical passes for humanitarian purposes. He says, and our hear and our their quote unquote, and he explains that in his opinion, the ceasefire would hamper the war effort because the only thing so he says that works on these criminals. As he refers to Hamas, is the military pressure that Israel has been excerting. So we also hear on Israel's defense minister, you're Afghan speaking today, he doesn't give a very specific wife frame for the war moving forward, but he does say it will take more than a week or two, so we can at least read into what he says is the fighting going on for several more weeks, the fighting itself for several more weeks, but what comes after, what comes as far as the change of leadership that Israel is looking for after it achieves that goal that it's set out to dismantle and destroy Hamas. So I think that is still a question that remains to be answered, and I do not think that there is a clear answer. Also for any Israeli officials or other official shows we're involved in some sort of talks or vaccinal talks on this som on this matter, it is a complicated issue. If I go back home to what Nataniel said last night, he didn't discuss some who would be ruling or who would be leaving Gaza in the day after, but he did say that for an indefinite period after the war. Israel would like to maintain, will maintain and will want to maintain and overall security responsibility in Gaza, suggesting that it will maintain that roll even after the fighting in the territory end. So that does not mean that Israel will will occupy Gaza and will rule there, but it will definitely want we want an arm and a leg in the security responsibility. In the strip you mentioned the Prime Minister natanyahuo talking about tactical pauses in the fighting. We heard from Secretary of State Anthony Blincoln over the weekend in his whirlwind trip talking about humanitarian pauses. Is there really a difference between those two ideas well? You know, I think when you speak about human humanitarian pauses, like Nathaniel said himself, you speak about very brief arm positive he said, an hour here, an hour there, while seasfire fire as much you know, wider concept that basically doesn't even seem possible now in the sense that there are a lot of Israeli troops and thousands of Israeli troops on the ground in Gaza encircling Gaza City fighting there, and uh and the and the and the wider seas fire and overall seasfire that would see fighting completely pause for a longer time than an hour or or a couple hours here and there doesn't seem possible as long as so many Israeli troops are in the ground and there's so much competing going on on the ground. We've also heard Israeli leaders say that there's no humanitarian crisis in southern Gaza from what we can tell with the situation on the ground. Uh does that square with what we're seeing. So look, we're saying, first of all, we're still seeing that. The Israeli Army saying that it continues to operate a sa corridor even today for four hours towards Wadi Gaza, So that would mean people moving still moving from northern Gaza to the southern part. And the visually Army publishes documentation today of residents living the Day two neighborhood that's a neighborhood in the southern part of Gaza City waving white cloths at tanks, meaning they want to say, you know, we're innocent civilians led us through and the army is doing that. And we also saw yesterday the Egyptian border did eventually reopen for the evacuation of foreign nationals and dual citizens, and also a handful of injured people. We do not know the exact numbers, but that did happen. This is Bloomberg Daybreak Today, your morning brief on the stories making news from Wall Street to Washington and beyond. Look for us on your podcast feed at six am Eastern each morning, on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. You can also listen live each morning starting at five am Wall Street time on Bloomberg eleven three to zero in New York, Bloomberg ninety nine to one in Washington, Bloomberg one oh six to one in Boston, and Bloomberg ninety sixty in San Francisco. Our flagship New York station is also available on your Amazon Alexa devices. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty plus. Listen coast to coast on the Bloomberg Business app, serious XM Channel one nineteen, the iHeartRadio app, and on Bloomberg dot Com. I'm Nathan Hager and I'm Karen Moscow. Join us again tomorrow morning for all the news you need to start your day right here on Bloomberg Daybreak. 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Joe Manchin might quit Dem party, inflation ticks up, Biden: I wish I hadn't called it Inflation Reduction Act, even transgenders can't ask questions, Nicky Haley signs pledge Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

They're enthusiastically letting people die: low income working people have to put off medical care or, like Charlene Dill, cut their medications in half to be able to buy food for their kids. Also, Marjorie Taylor Greene gets Sean Hannity on board for national divorce – then warns of a looming Civil War. Guest: Dean Obeidallah explains why Nicky Haley's despicable white-washing of racism. Why is Trump visiting East Palestine? Is he returning to the scene of his crime? Plus, while Trump and Marjorie Taylor Greene continue to support Putin's slaughter in Ukraine, some Republicans are doing the right thing!See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Huge week in national and state politics and KPW is here to cover it all! Balloons, Nicky Haley, Drag Brunches, Booze at UK Baseball, we've got it all!

Andrew took suggestions on what to get his wife his wife for Valentine's Day, shooter at Michigan State yesterday, Nicky Haley announced her run for President.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Today we talk about Nikki Haley Running for President. Why Democrats placate to people with low incomes, and why Republicans should pull for the city of Atlanta.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Latest Twitter files dump exposes that Zelensky sent out Govt decree to destroy ALL INFO on Hunter Biden's Metabiota Company on same day as Russian invasion. Desantis responds to Trump and Nicky Haley running for President + Get your real estate questions ready! Kathy Helbig of Experience Realty joins us.

Hour 2 of A&G features Nicky Haley's presidential aspirations, Immigration cover ups, European differences in speech, and whale puke perfume. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Hour 2 of A&G features Nicky Haley's presidential aspirations, Immigration cover ups, European differences in speech, and whale puke perfume. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Hour 3 of A&G features Chicago's steep decent into madness, more on Nicky Haley, Italian rainfall records, and Idaho's petty governors. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Hour 2 of A&G features Nicky Haley's presidential aspirations, Immigration cover ups, European differences in speech, and whale puke perfume. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

Hour 3 of A&G features Chicago's steep decent into madness, more on Nicky Haley, Italian rainfall records, and Idaho's petty governors. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

Hour 3 of A&G features Chicago's steep decent into madness, more on Nicky Haley, Italian rainfall records, and Idaho's petty governors. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.