Podcast appearances and mentions of William Poundstone

This is part two of my favorite books list — we'll call it volume 10. Today we're getting straight to it. These are all great books I think you should read. Let's keep it going. Show Notes:  [02:11]#5 No BS Time management for entrepreneurs, written by Dan Kennedy.  [07:36]#6 10x is easier than 2x by Benjamin Hardy and Dan Sullivan.  [14:18]#7 The Four Hour Work Week by Tim Ferriss.  [19:14]#8 Are you smart enough to work at Google? by William Poundstone. [23:10]Recap Next Steps: ---

John von Neumann fue un matemático húngaro – estadounidense que, entre otras cosas, ayudó a comprender la aplicación práctica de “el dilema del prisionero”. En un libro bajo ese título, William Poundstone explica esa teoría, que resulta indispensable para comprender desde cómo actúan dos delincuentes involucrados en un delito hasta las más complejas relaciones políticas. Por eso este dilema sigue tan vigente hoy. ¿Parece enredado, verdad? Te ayudamos a comprenderlo.

Did you like the episode? Send me a text and let me know!!Mastering Product Pricing Strategies: Key Insights for EntrepreneursIn this episode of Business Conversations with Pi, host Skoob and AI co-host Pi delve into the essential topic of product pricing for new entrepreneurs. They discuss various pricing strategies such as cost-plus, value-based, competitive, and dynamic pricing. The episode provides detailed insights into dynamic pricing and offers guidance on determining whether pricing strategies are working effectively. Additionally, they share tips to avoid underpricing and recommend helpful books to master the art of pricing. The show emphasizes the importance of ongoing evaluation and adjustment in achieving the optimal pricing strategy for any business. "The Strategy and Tactics of Pricing" by Thomas T. Nagle, John E. Hogan, and Joseph Zale "Priceless: The Myth of Fair Value (and How to Take Advantage of It)" by William Poundstone "The Psychology of Price" by Leigh Caldwell "Value-Based Pricing" by Harry Macdivitt and Mike Wilkinson00:00 Introduction to Business Conversations with Pi01:52 Discussing Product Pricing Strategies02:56 Deep Dive into Dynamic Pricing04:06 Evaluating Your Pricing Strategy05:17 Avoiding Common Pricing Pitfalls06:27 Recommended Books on Pricing07:37 Final Thoughts and Encouragement08:16 Conclusion and Next Steps Thank you for being a Skoobeliever!! If you have questions about the show or you want to be a guest please contact me at one of these social mediasTwitter......... ..@djskoob2021 Facebook.........Facebook.com/skoobamiInstagram..... instagram.com/uepodcast2021tiktok....... @djskoob2021Email............... Uepodcast2021@gmail.comAcross The Start Line Facebook Community If you would like to be coached on your entrepreneurial adventure please email me at for a 2 hour free discovery call! This is a $700 free gift to my Skoobelievers!! Contact me Now!! On Twitter @doittodaycoachdoingittodaycoaching@gmailcom

In today's episode, Shawn O'Malley (@Shawn_OMalley_) discusses the formula used by some of history's best investors to systematically beat the market averages. It's not a secret formula for winning if you don't have any investing edge, but it is a system for maximizing wealth over time by properly sizing bets based on your conviction in terms of how favorable bets are for you ( your “edge.”) You'll learn about the great minds of Bell Labs behind the Kelly formula, how Ed Thorpe used the Kelly formula to beat the dealers in Las Vegas, which investors have used the Kelly formula and found success with it, how to define having an “edge” in investing and what that can mean for you, the controversies surrounding the Kelly formula, and why the Kelly formula isn't better known, plus so much more! Prefer to watch? Click here to watch this episode on YouTube. IN THIS EPISODE, YOU'LL LEARN 00:00 - Intro 01:57 - The origins of the esteemed Bell Labs and how its research led to the Kelly formula's creation 02:27 -How to define and use the Kelly formula 18:22 - Why the Kelly formula is helpful 23:40 - Why there are limits to the Kelly formula 25:17 - How Ed Thorpe beat the dealer and the markets with the Kelly formula 28:22 - How Claude Shannon's approach to beating the markets with the Kelly formula differed from Thorpe's 36:38 - What it means to have an edge in markets  38:52 - Why the Kelly formula is controversial 41:02 - How to think about your own edge in markets 41:44 - Why the Kelly formula isn't better known And much, much more! *Disclaimer: Slight timestamp discrepancies may occur due to podcast platform differences. BOOKS AND RESOURCES Join the exclusive TIP Mastermind Community to engage in meaningful stock investing discussions with Kyle and the other community members. Check out Fortune's Formula by William Poundstone. Check out Beat the Dealer by Ed Thorpe. Read Beat the Market (free PDF) by Ed Thorpe. Bell Labs' history. Read about the Information theory. The Kelly Formula, explained. William Thorndike's book The Outsiders. Check out the books mentioned in the podcast here. Enjoy ad-free episodes when you subscribe to our Premium Feed. NEW TO THE SHOW? Follow our official social media accounts: X (Twitter) | LinkedIn | Instagram | Facebook | TikTok. Check out our Millennial Investing Starter Packs. Browse through all our episodes (complete with transcripts) here. Try Kyle's favorite tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: TIP Finance. Enjoy exclusive perks from our favorite Apps and Services. Stay up-to-date on financial markets and investing strategies through our daily newsletter, We Study Markets. Learn how to better start, manage, and grow your business with the best business podcasts. SPONSORS Support our free podcast by supporting our sponsors: Toyota Facet Fundrise Public Airbnb Bluehost NetSuite Connect with Shawn: Twitter | LinkedIn | Email HELP US OUT! Help us reach new listeners by leaving us a rating and review on Spotify! It takes less than 30 seconds and really helps our show grow, which allows us to bring on even better guests for you all! Thank you – we really appreciate it!  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm

Chapter 1:Summary of Priceless"Priceless: The Myth of Fair Value (and How to Take Advantage of It)" is a non-fiction book by William Poundstone, which delves into the concept of pricing and the psychology behind how people determine the value of goods and services. The book explores the historical and psychological basis for pricing strategies, focusing on how both consumers and businesses perceive value.Poundstone discusses various experiments and theories from behavioral economics, illustrating how people often make irrational financial choices that do not align with traditional economic models of rational decision-making. Central to the book is the idea that the perceived value can be easily manipulated through marketing techniques, anchoring, the presentation of choices, and other tactics.The book covers case studies and stories, revealing the hidden influences behind seemingly straightforward pricing decisions. It discusses luxury goods, auctions, menu prices, and supermarket pricing, among others, highlighting how businesses use the psychology of pricing to maximize profits."Priceless" is significant for both consumers looking to understand the tricks and manipulations in everyday pricing and for marketers and business professionals aiming to master the art of pricing for competitive advantage.Chapter 2:The Theme of Priceless"Priceless: The Myth of Fair Value (and How to Take Advantage of It)" by William Poundstone explores the concept of value from a psychological perspective, particularly focusing on how people determine the worth of goods and services. The book not only delves into economic theory but also integrates insights from psychology to explain how and why pricing strategies can manipulate consumer perception.Here are some key points regarding plot development, character insights, and thematic ideas drawn from the book:Key Plot Points:1. The Concept of Value: The book opens by challenging traditional notions of value, introducing the reader to behavioral economics and the psychology of decision-making.2. Historical Perspectives: Poundstone discusses the history of economic thought on value, examining figures like Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, who were pivotal in integrating psychological insights into economic theory.3. Experiments and Case Studies: Various experiments and real-world case studies are presented throughout the book to illustrate how people often rely on irrational ways of assessing value.4. Market Implications: The book looks at how businesses and marketers use these cognitive biases to their advantage, strategically setting prices that consumers perceive as fair or beneficial.Character Development:While "Priceless" isn't a narrative with characters in the traditional literary sense, Poundstone introduces a range of real individuals—economists, psychologists, marketers—who have contributed significantly to our understanding of value. Through their stories and work, readers gain a deeper understanding of how human behavior regarding valuation is studied and influenced.Thematic Ideas:1. Subjectivity of Value: One of the central themes is the inherent subjectivity in how individuals assess value, influenced significantly by external cues rather than intrinsic worth.2. Irrationality in Economics: The book critically examines the assumption in classical economics that humans are rational actors, showing through various examples how people often make irrational value assessments.3. Influence of Anchoring: The concept of "anchoring," where initial exposure to a number shapes expectations and perceptions of price, is a recurring theme, showing how it can be manipulated in marketing and negotiations.4. The Power of Free: Poundstone also discusses the disproportionate value people place on items and services labeled as "free,"...

One of my favorite book series of all time — William Poundstone's Big Secrets, Bigger Secrets, and Biggest Secrets! Youtube: https://youtu.be/3SjjGsOVhBg Support Rando Rob at […]

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Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Lies, Damn Lies, and Fabricated Options, published by Duncan_Sabien on the LessWrong. This is an essay about one of those "once you see it, you will see it everywhere" phenomena. It is a psychological and interpersonal dynamic roughly as common, and almost as destructive, as motte-and-bailey, and at least in my own personal experience it's been quite valuable to have it reified, so that I can quickly recognize the commonality between what I had previously thought of as completely unrelated situations. The original quote referenced in the title is "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." Background 1: Gyroscopes Gyroscopes are weird. Except they're not. They're quite normal and mundane and straightforward. The weirdness of gyroscopes is a map-territory confusion—gyroscopes seem weird because my map is poorly made, and predicts that they will do something other than their normal, mundane, straightforward thing. In large part, this is because I don't have the consequences of physical law engraved deeply enough into my soul that they make intuitive sense. I can imagine a world that looks exactly like the world around me, in every way, except that in this imagined world, gyroscopes don't have any of their strange black-magic properties. It feels coherent to me. It feels like a world that could possibly exist. "Everything's the same, except gyroscopes do nothing special." Sure, why not. But in fact, this world is deeply, deeply incoherent. It is Not Possible with capital letters. And a physicist with sufficiently sharp intuitions would know this—would be able to see the implications of a world where gyroscopes "don't do anything weird," and tell me all of the ways in which reality falls apart. The seeming coherence of the imaginary world where gyroscopes don't balance and don't precess and don't resist certain kinds of motion is a product of my own ignorance, and of the looseness with which I am tracking how different facts fit together, and what the consequences of those facts are. It's like a toddler thinking that they can eat their slice of cake, and still have that very same slice of cake available to eat again the next morning. Background 2: H2O and XYZ In the book Labyrinths of Reason, author William Poundstone delves into various thought experiments (like Searle's Chinese Room) to see whether they're actually coherent or not. In one such exploration, he discusses the idea of a Twin Earth, on the opposite side of the sun, exactly like Earth in every way except that it doesn't have water. Instead, it has a chemical, labeled XYZ, which behaves like water and occupies water's place in biology and chemistry, but is unambiguously distinct. Once again, this is the sort of thing humans are capable of imagining. I can nod along and say "sure, a liquid that behaves just like water, but isn't." But a chemist, intimately familiar with the structure and behavior of molecules and with the properties of the elements and their isotopes, would be throwing up red flags. "Just like water," they might say, and I would nod. "Liquid, and transparent, with a density of 997 kilograms per meter cubed." "Sure," I would reply. "Which freezes and melts at exactly 0º Celsius, and which boils and condenses at exactly 100º Celsius." "Yyyyeahhhh," I would say, uneasiness settling in. "Which makes up roughly 70% of the mass of the bodies of the humans of Twin Earth, and which is a solvent for hydrophilic substances, but not hydrophobic ones, and which can hold ions and polar substances in solution." "Um." The more we drill down into what we mean by behaves exactly like water, the more it starts to become clear that there just isn't a possible substance which behaves exactly like water, but isn't. There are only so many configurations of electrons and protons and neutrons ...

In our roam recap podcast, Jes and I review some of our weekly notes and discuss topics that we weren't able to talk about in our book review episodes.--Today we kept it short and sweet only touching on a few topics:Emotional Conjugations - how by using specific adjectives, one can distort an interpretation of an event/ action. Arguing with specificity - how it is better to argue on a specific level rather than a general one in order to get to the crux of an issue.Refining assumptions - how refining one's assumptions through the acquisition of knowledge and experience can lead to a better outcome and provide a better framework to navigate the world. Ownership and patenting - how ownership and patenting is negatively impacting collaboration and innovation which is ultimately having a major impact on fields that should be progressing such as medicine,  law, etc.If any of these areas sound interesting to you, do give it a listen and be sure to let us know what you thought of it, whether that be in the comment section below or via a DM to our Instagram account. P.S. In case you are curious about any of the content we mentioned in this episode, you can find them through the links presented below. Joe Rogan and Yeonmi Park Podcast Episode - https://open.spotify.com/episode/0G5o6GYjWgbSvKG3W2W2xO?si=Y6joqxQpQkudIms2fSQiMA&dl_branch=1How to Have Impossible Conversations by Peter Boghossian and James Lindsay -  https://wordery.com/how-to-have-impossible-conversations-peter-boghossian-9781549156038Jordan Peterson and Andrew Doyle Podcast Episode - https://open.spotify.com/episode/3pDiUNFsk0fgf5ejhdZbyK?si=ShHUG_4DRRevzN7_r_HguQ&dl_branch=1 Head in the Cloud by William Poundstone - https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/0316553271/?coliid=I8B6V83WWGORC&colid=1F73YCYRDGBEJ&psc=0Mine by James Salzman and Michael Heller - https://wordery.com/mine-michael-heller-9781786497789?cTrk=MTg4MzgyODc2fDYxMWNmZTMwOTM0ZDU6MTozOjYxMWNmYzM1N2U1ZDEyLjc5NzgwMDI1OjAzNGNlZWJm--If you enjoyed this podcast make sure to check out our other content on our other platforms:    - Website: https://wisewords.blog/    - Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/wisewords.blog/    - Twitter: https://twitter.com/wisewordsblog    - Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/WiseWordsBlogStay tuned for more recaps.

In this episode Pete and Steve discuss their next two selections in their Top 10 Investment Books. Steve chooses Fortune's Formula: The Untold Story of the Scientific Betting System That Beat the Casinos and Wall Street by William Poundstone. And Pete chooses Antifragile by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. Thanks for listening! Download a free copy of our latest book, Total Money Management – How to escape the rat race and unlock your financial independence. www.gonextlevelwealth.com.au/podcast Pete Wargent www.petewargent.com/ www.linkedin.com/in/pete-wargent-37228322/ Stephen Moriarty twitter.com/SGM63

Charm pricing (also known as 9-ending prices) is one of those marketing tricks that is known by all. It has left the marketing textbooks and is used by everyone from kids selling lemonade to businesses selling smartphones. With such widespread adoption, it's worth exploring if the nudge still affects consumers. In today's episode, we take a look at the history of charm pricing, explore case studies of businesses that have used it, and ask if it's something you should try. The Science of Marketing Course: https://scienceofmarketing.teachable.com Sign up to the Nudge Mailing list: www.nudgepodcast.com/mailing-list Read Priceless by William Poundstone: https://amzn.to/3zh0wzJ

Our guest this week is arguably the world's best gin rummy player, Michael Sall. He is the author of "Gin Rummy: A Predator's Guide." We spoke to Michael back in December and thought he merited a return visit.We welcome your questions - send them to us at gamblingwithanedge@gmail.com, or you can find me at @RWM21 on Twitter or https://www.facebook.com/GamblingWithAnEdge.podcastClick to listen - Alt click to downloadShow Notes[00:00] Introduction of Michael Sall, arguably the best gin player in the world[00:34] Bets about fasting and weight[05:40] Adjusting play to an opponent's strategy in gin[08:25] Artificial intelligence analysis and game theory in gin[13:09] Is Michael planning any other books?[15:07] The worst mistake that inexperienced gin players make[18:32] South Point Casino March Promotion - $500 Swipe, Spin, and Win, many restaurants have re-opened[19:55] Predictit.org/promo/edge - place small wagers on various political events, $20 deposit match for GWAE listeners[20:50] BlackjackApprenticeship.com - card counting community, and training site[21:14] VideoPoker.com/gwae - Gold Membership offers correction on most games, free pro trial for GWAE listeners[22:05] The value of social elements of gin advantage play[26:20] How difficult is it to make a living as a full-time gambler?[33:02] Recommended - The Source by James Michener, A Time for Mercy by John Grisham, Fortune's Formula by William Poundstone, The Information by James Gleick[36:51] Does Richard have plans to write a memoir?[38:17] Slots and vulturism[40:08] Timing of ADT beginning and end[41:33] Is Wheelchair still alive?[42:12] Are there any offerings for slot advantage play?[42:27] Did Richard get paid in Moscow?[44:40] Advantage plays in craps without dice control?[46:25] Beating roulette and The Eudaemonic Pie by Thomas Bass[47:38] Bob and Richard's favorite episodes (all available at GamblingWithEdge.com)[50:39] How did Bob and Richard tell their wives about advantage playBooks Referenced:Gin Rummy: A Predator's Guide by Michael SallEudaemonic Pie by Thomas Bass https://amzn.to/3rgULMZFollow the Bouncing Ball by Mark Billings https://amzn.to/3rdpvywThe Ultimate Edge by Mark Billings https://amzn.to/31fBiSmSponsored Links:SouthPointCasino.comPredictit.org/promo/edgeBlackjackApprenticeship.comVideoPoker.com/gwae Recommended:The Source by James Michener https://amzn.to/2OXORU6A Time for Mercy by John Grisham https://amzn.to/2OVlpOxFortune's Formula by William Poundstone https://amzn.to/3fcNrzyThe Information by James Gleick https://amzn.to/3d34Rfn 

Our guest today is longtime advantage player RxGamble.  Rx is on to talk about longevity, and beginner mistakes.We welcome your questions - send them to us at gamblingwithanedge@gmail.com, or you can find me at @RWM21 on Twitter or https://www.facebook.com/GamblingWithAnEdge.podcast Click to listen - Alt-click to downloadShow Notes[00:00] Introduction of advantage player, RxGamble[00:41] RxGamble's 2019 Hole Card Workshop, and upcoming Zoom call[06:16] The importance of longevity[09:13] Name changes and disguises[12:02] Playing unrated, loss plays[18:45] Stories about giving up EV to avoid showing ID[24:30] Leveraging female beauty as an AP[29:25] Slots longevity[32:03] BPs making rookie mistakes[33:40] South Point Casino January Promotions - $400k Spin to Win[34:46] Predictit.org/promo/edge - place small bets on various political events, $20 deposit match for GWAW listeners[36:01] BlackjackApprenticeship.com - card counting training site and community[36:15] VideoPoker.com/gwae - Gold Membership offers correction on most games[37:27] Rookie mistakes and reconciling player errors[47:54] Rookie mistakes with security[53:13] Showing ID to police officers[54:29] Sharing players card face up, sharing name[1:01:51] Recommended - Planet Money "Fork the Government," Rock Breaks Scissors by William Poundstone, The Woman Who Smashed Codes by Jason Fagone Sponsored Links:SouthPointCasino.comPredictit.org/promo/edgeBlackjackApprenticeship.com VideoPoker.com/gwaeRX's Links:RxGamble.comTwitter.com/rxgambleRecommended:Npr.org/2020/12/23/949764249/fork-the-governmentRock Breaks Scissors by William Poundstone https://amzn.to/3pDkdMoThe Woman Who Smashed Codes by Jason Fagone https://amzn.to/38N84xp 

What can we say about this offensively misconceived slice of Jerry Lee Lewis's late-'50s life, one that casts his "relationship" (ugh) with his 13-year-old cousin (blerf) as a quirkumstance of romantical fate? Well, we can say cocaine was involved; we can wonder if the estate of Foghorn Leghorn sued Dennis Quaid's performance for copyright infringement; and we can admire Winona Ryder's performance as Myra Gale while thinking it makes the story immeasurably ickier. On a scale of one to Hasselhoff, we give DQ's effort a (NC-)17, but very little about this bowdlerization of Myra Gale's memoir works. Also, "Alec Baldwin as Jimmy Swaggart." MERRY CHRISTMAS, EVER'BUDDEH! Overall score: 3 QQQ score: 3 SHOW NOTES Get EVEN MORE Qontent (...sorry) at our Patreon page (https://www.patreon.com/quaidinfull) Can YOU get past the first 27 seconds of The Dennissance (https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-dennissance/id1503394153)? Roger Ebert's review (https://www.rogerebert.com/reviews/great-balls-of-fire-1989) Rita Kempley's review (https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/style/longterm/movies/videos/greatballsoffirepg13kempley_a09fca.htm) William Poundstone explains how Copperfield disappeared the Statue of Liberty in Bigger Secrets (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Secrets)

Card counting in the 1970s and 80s, as told by the people who were there.Guests: Richard Munchkin, Mark Billings, Tommy Hyland, Darryl Purpose.Contact the show: riskofruinpod@gmail.comTwitter: @halfkellyLinks:Gambling Wizards, Richard MunchkinThe Ultimate Edge, Mark BillingsFortune's Formula, William Poundstone

Today’s guest is Richard Cook, co-founder and portfolio manager at Cook & Bynum based in Birmingham, Alabama. Richard is a pure value investor. Both the depth and breadth of his thinking shined through in our conversation. We talked about Arca, a Mexican Coca-Cola bottler that Richard evaluated for the multi-decade durability of its business. We had a great conversation in which Richard detailed a high-level structural analysis of Arca’s business while at the same time deploying a unique brand of shoe leather research bumping along the roads of Mexico to visit local shops in order to understand the company’s execution and positioning. If you would like notes from today’s episode, please subscribe to our free newsletter. I hope you enjoy this conversation as much as I did. Feel free to email info@investingindepth.com with feedback. You can follow Cook & Bynum on their web site. 1:35 Path to becoming an investor: receiving 5 shares of 5 stocks as a third grade Christmas gift. Reading Roger Lowenstein’s, Buffett: The Making of An American Capitalist was a turning point. 6:00 Arca Continental is a Coca-Cola bottler based in Northern Mexico. Coca-Cola sells them syrup and they have an exclusive regional franchise to bottle and sell Coke.  8:00 How Arca Continental hit Richard’s radar screen. 10:25 Framework for evaluating businesses: circle of competence, business, people, and price.  10:30 Using old-fashioned shoe leather research. Richard drove from his home base in Birmingham, Alabama, to Mexico to visit small stores along back country dirt roads to evaluate the quality of Arca’s execution at its points of sale. “You want to understand why does the consumer choose your product and not someone else’s... and what does the company say those reasons are and do those match up.” 14:55 Identifying structural barriers to competition: Fragmentation of distribution. 22:18 Evaluating people — a critical aspect of emerging markets investing. “You usually have two sets of people. There’s management… there’s also the key shareholders, which is frequently a family or two or three and you have to triangulate on whether or not you want to be in business with this family.” 26:20 Investing in a less liquid name. “Most of the volume was going through a single broker … and we figured out that we needed to have a relationship with that broker…. You have to go find where the liquidity is.” 27:50 Monitoring areas of ongoing risk and uncertainty after making an initial investment: focusing on mega trends. 33:10 How Arca maintains its strength: investing in and strengthening the mom-and-pop store channel that distributes its Coke products. 38:24 Sizing the investment: Expected return divided by risk, which Richard defines as the how wide the range of outcomes relative to expectations may be. His write-up on avoiding losers  captures Richard’s unique approach to thinking about risk. He also has a terrific write-up on the Kelly Criterion, which was originally used in information theory and has served as a guide for Richard’s focus on maximizing geometric means rather than arithmetic means in investment decisions. The original Kelly paper is here and William Poundstone’s Fortune’s Formula is a history of John Kelly and Claude Shannon’s efforts at Bell Labs in the 1950s developing his formula. 45:44 Recommended reading Robert Massie’s Peter the Great for providing perspective on emerging markets across history. CV Wedgwood’s The Thirty Years War for providing perspective on the impact that a major reduction in the cost of communication can have on society. Anything by Peter Kaufman (there are a lot of YouTube videos). One of his insights is that if a business optimizes toward win-win solutions, that goes a long way toward decreasing risk and increasing durability: “All the people that interact with this business, are they winning? If they are, then that’s a lot more durable. You can say a lot more about what the profitability and durability of that business is 10, 15, 30 years from now.“ Richard was humble in not mentioning the Cook & Bynum web site. It contains a terrific Bookshelf section with recommended books as well as scores of fantastic “C&B Notes” covering a broad range of topics in investing and beyond. Note: This podcast is for educational purposes only and nothing here constitutes a recommendation or offer.

On the finale of season one, the tables have turned. Instead of me reading a book my friend likes, my wife reads a book that I like! Taylor is my wife of just over six months, a future school psychologist, and a big fan of cats. “The Doomsday Calculation” is a book about a mathematic equation that gives probability to future events that have no past or present data to help predict them, primarily existential events like the end of humanity. If it sounds confusing, that’s because it is… a little. Taylor and I have a conversation that sometimes—like the book—gets a little confusing, but at the very least, we give some good thought experiments from the book that will hopefully entertain. Recorded June 28, 2020.

A tag não é nova. De vez em quando solto isso no meu instagram pessoal e em meu outro podcast, o mauroamaral.com. Trouxe pra cá porque quando me reúno com Carolina Vigna e Mauricio Domene o papo flui solto e a gente consegue fazer mais conexões do que de costume. Daí, para estrear a série, preparamos o programa de Junho de 2020 com o que passou por nossas estantes, plays e fones de ouvido e, mais do que isso, como isso nos afetou em nossa forma de estar no mundo. Para facilitar, no lugar de resumo, temos uma lista de links comentados e até alguns extras que ficaram de fora do programa mas ainda assim valem a leitura ou ouvida. Vamos falar isso ao final do programa, mas eu coloco aqui também: a ideia é que cada episódio nesse inicie uma conversa que você pode continuar em qualquer um dos canais que disponibilizamos para isso.LI / A história de Joe Shuster - https://amzn.to/2ADctGp/ Breve História do Mundo, do Gombrich - https://amzn.to/2YihY6a/ O mito do valor justo (e como se tirar vantagem disso), William Poundstone - https://amzn.to/2YiKFQz/ Os números (não) mentem. Como a matemática pode ser usada para enganar você, Charles Seife - https://amzn.to/3djYxOH/ Vida, Keith Richard - https://amzn.to/2BpbNEsVI/ Quincy, Netflix - https://tinyurl.com/yd83rrpp/ Canal The Futur, Youtube - https://tinyurl.com/y9ecbmaz/ Goliath, Amazon Prime / Dois Papas, Netflix / Lúcifer, Netflix / God Omens, Netflix / Modern Family, Netflix - https://tinyurl.com/yagu7h88OUVI/ Quarta Capa, Podcast da editora Todavia > https://tinyurl.com/y9c6kjn7/ Podcast do BioParque do Rio - https://tinyurl.com/y9nk9gf4/ Ezra Klein Show - https://tinyurl.com/y9f3xld3/ Score: The Podcast - https://tinyurl.com/ycjy5chu/ Vulf Pack - https://tinyurl.com/y7oe2x4dVem conversar com a gente:/ Post oficial do programa: https://tinyurl.com/ycksdjpb/ Grupo do Telegram: http://https//t.me/ouvintesdofalafreela/ Grupo do Whatsapp: https://chat.whatsapp.com/IrPVwh2IJH73DgVxPK3TQZ/ Grupo do Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/groups/carreirasolo/ Instagram: http://www.instagram.com/falafreela/ Twitter: http://www.twittercom/falafreela

A tag não é nova. De vez em quando solto isso no meu instagram pessoal e em meu outro podcast, o mauroamaral.com. Trouxe pra cá porque quando me reúno com Carolina Vigna e Mauricio Domene o papo flui solto e a gente consegue fazer mais conexões do que de costume. Daí, para estrear a série, preparamos o programa de Junho de 2020 com o que passou por nossas estantes, plays e fones de ouvido e, mais do que isso, como isso nos afetou em nossa forma de estar no mundo. Para facilitar, no lugar de resumo, temos uma lista de links comentados e até alguns extras que ficaram de fora do programa mas ainda assim valem a leitura ou ouvida. Vamos falar isso ao final do programa, mas eu coloco aqui também: a ideia é que cada episódio nesse inicie uma conversa que você pode continuar em qualquer um dos canais que disponibilizamos para isso. LI / A história de Joe Shuster - https://amzn.to/2ADctGp / Breve História do Mundo, do Gombrich - https://amzn.to/2YihY6a / O mito do valor justo (e como se tirar vantagem disso), William Poundstone - https://amzn.to/2YiKFQz / Os números (não) mentem. Como a matemática pode ser usada para enganar você, Charles Seife - https://amzn.to/3djYxOH / Vida, Keith Richard - https://amzn.to/2BpbNEs VI / Quincy, Netflix - https://tinyurl.com/yd83rrpp / Canal The Futur, Youtube - https://tinyurl.com/y9ecbmaz / Goliath, Amazon Prime / Dois Papas, Netflix / Lúcifer, Netflix / God Omens, Netflix / Modern Family, Netflix - https://tinyurl.com/yagu7h88 OUVI / Quarta Capa, Podcast da editora Todavia > https://tinyurl.com/y9c6kjn7 / Podcast do BioParque do Rio - https://tinyurl.com/y9nk9gf4 / Ezra Klein Show - https://tinyurl.com/y9f3xld3 / Score: The Podcast - https://tinyurl.com/ycjy5chu / Vulf Pack - https://tinyurl.com/y7oe2x4d Vem conversar com a gente: / Post oficial do programa: https://tinyurl.com/ycksdjpb / Grupo do Telegram: http://https//t.me/ouvintesdofalafreela / Grupo do Whatsapp: https://chat.whatsapp.com/IrPVwh2IJH73DgVxPK3TQZ / Grupo do Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/groups/carreirasolo / Instagram: http://www.instagram.com/falafreela / Twitter: http://www.twittercom/falafreela

What I learned from reading Fortune's Formula: The Untold Story of the Scientific Betting System That Beat the Casinos and Wall Street by William Poundstone.Claude Shannon was as close to a sure thing as existed [2:53]The beginning of information theory [7:11]Project X [9:09]introduction to Ed Thorpe [15:05]using math and physics to beat Las Vegas [18:03]Ed Thorp and Claude Shannon meet [20:45]testing Thorpe's Blackjack theory [26:00]The core of John Kelly's philosophy of risk can be stated without math. It is that even unlikely events must come to pass eventually. Therefore, anyone who accepts small risks of losing everything will lose everything, sooner or later. The ultimate compound return rate is acutely sensitive to fat tails. [28:23]I'd be a bum in the street with a tin cup if the markets were efficient. —Warren Buffett [44:30]how Claude Shannon begins studying the stock market [46:45]Claude Shannon and Henry Singleton [48:16]why and how Ed Thorp started investing in stocks [49:49]Thorp starts a hedge fund and starts working remotely [52:49]Ed Thorp meets Warren Buffett [54:20]An acid test of Princeton/Newport's market neutrality came in the Black Monday crash of October 19, 1987. The Dow Jones index lost 23 percent of its value in a single day. Princeton/Newport's $ 600 million portfolio shed only about $ 2 million in the crash. Princeton Newport's return for the year was an astonishing 34 percent. [59:36]the implosion of Long Term Capital Management [1:07:00]The thing you should do is the opposite of what you feel you should do. –Jim Clayton [1:09:10]A quote from 1738: A man who risks his entire fortune acts like a simpleton, however great may be the possible gain. — Daniel Bernoulli [1:13:00]Claude Shannon: A smart investor should understand where he has an edge and invest only in those opportunities. The methods Claude Shannon used to invest [1:17:10]—“I have listened to every episode released and look forward to every episode that comes out. The only criticism I would have is that after each podcast I usually want to buy the book because I am interested so my poor wallet suffers. ” — GarethBe like Gareth. Buy a book: All the books featured on Founders Podcast

When will the world end? How likely is it that intelligent extraterrestrial life exists? Are we living in a simulation like the Matrix? Is our universe but one in a multiverse? How does Warren Buffett continue to beat the stock market? How much longer will your romance last? In this wide ranging conversation with science writer William Poundstone, answers to these questions, and more, will be provided … or at least considered in the framework of Bayesian analysis. In the 18th century, the British minister and mathematician Thomas Bayes devised a theorem that allowed him to assign probabilities to events that had never happened before. It languished in obscurity for centuries until computers came along and made it easy to crunch the numbers. Now, as the foundation of big data, Bayes’ formula has become a linchpin of the digital economy. But here’s where things get really interesting: Bayes’ theorem can also be used to lay odds on the existence of extraterrestrial intelligence; on whether we live in a Matrix-like counterfeit of reality; on the “many worlds” interpretation of quantum theory being correct; and on the biggest question of all: how long will humanity survive? The Doomsday Calculation tells how Silicon Valley’s profitable formula became a controversial pivot of contemporary thought. Drawing on interviews with thought leaders around the globe, it’s the story of a group of intellectual mavericks who are challenging what we thought we knew about our place in the universe. Listen to Science Salon via iTunes, Spotify, Google Play Music, Stitcher, iHeartRadio, TuneIn, and Soundcloud. You play a vital part in our commitment to promote science and reason. If you enjoy the Science Salon Podcast, please show your support by making a donation, or by becoming a patron.  

In this episode of the Science Focus Podcast, we’re going to try to guess when the end of the world will happen.Don’t worry, it’s not as gloomy as it might sound. Those people waving ‘The End is Nigh!’ placards are probably completely wrong about an immanent doomsday… Probably.There is a formula that has circulated for the last 50 years which suggests we can pinpoint the end of something with a reasonable amount of certainty. It has been used to predict any number of things, including successful stock market investments, the run of Broadway shows and even how many Harry Potter books go missing from local libraries.But since the 1990s, it has sparked considerable debate among theorists about when humanity as we know it will come to an end.We ask William Poundstone - whose new book How To Predict Everything (£12.99, Oneworld) explains the history of this enigmatic equation - how long we have left as a species on this planet, whether we can shift the odds in our favour, and how we can predict, well, pretty much everything else.How long do you think we have left, and why? Let us know on Twitter at @sciencefocus, and don’t forget to rate and review us wherever you listen to your podcasts.Listen to more episodes of the Science Focus Podcast:What if the Earth’s magnetic field died? – Jim Al-KhaliliHow can we save our planet? – Sir David AttenboroughThere is no Plan B for planet Earth – Lord Martin ReesThe future of humanity – Michio KakuAre we facing an insect apocalypse? – Brad ListerThis is how to invent everything – Ryan NorthFollow Science Focus on Twitter, Facebook, Instagram and

What is the sound of a skull batting again and again at the hardest wall any coconut failed to crack? Why, it's the sound of your pals reading Harry Stephen Keeler's When Thief Meets Thief! This legendary underground author works through his obsessions (skulls, coincidences) and takes us through a long tour of his racial attitudes—and one of those two things is, depending on your patience levels, fun/acceptable. The other is a firehose of awful. (This book comes with a content warning for racist slurs and attitudes, self-harm, and one very cartoonish act of violence against an animal, very little of which is discussed in the episode.) But, whether or not you can get past the difficult to digest subject matter, you can always confront the difficult to parse timeline, or just wallow in the difficult to understand prose. This one, it's safe to say, isn't like anything you've read before. Extra bonus illustrations! If you want to see what it looks like when one tries to summarize the entire plot of a Keeler book, read this effort by William Poundstone. NOTE: it's like 2,500 words long. If you want to see what a Keeler-style "webwork" diagram looks like, feast your eyes! (Also from William Poundstone.)     Recommendations: Wandersong game L'Avenir / Things to Come (Mia Hansen-Løve) Music: "Skulls" by the Misfits "Thieves" by Ministry "Joker and the Thief" by Wolfmother IDEOTVPod Songs of Nudity and (Then) Carnality

Are We Nearing the End of Human Civilization? Description: What if there was a simple calculation that could foretell when a company will go bankrupt, when artificial intelligence will become smarter than humans, and when human civilization will meet its eventual demise. William Poundstone, author of the upcoming book, The Doomsday Calculation, joins Nick to explain how such an algorithm does exits, can predict all of this and more, and why humans likely only have 760 years left in the universe. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

For this 10th Episode, Jason goes off topic and welcomes William Poundstone, author of the new book, Head in the Cloud: Why Knowing Things Still Matters When Facts are So Easy to Look Up. Mr. Poundstone is also the author of the New York Times best-selling books, Fortune's Formula: The Untold Story of Scientific Betting System that Beat the Casinos and Wall Street, Priceless: The Myth of Fair Value and How to Take Advantage of It and Gaming the Vote: Why Elections Aren't Fair and What We Can Do About it. Key Takeaways: [1:12] William explains the premise of his latest book, Head in the Cloud. [5:03] Having a general knowledge of baseline facts and the Dunning-Kruger effect have humbling assets. [7:28] The larger a person's vocabulary is akin to their ability to think. [11:12] How does America stack up on the map of ignorance? [13:43] Americans will vote for judges with less ethnic sounding names if they don't know the candidates. [19:51] The Kelly Formula informs a user of the optimal amount you should be putting on each bet or investment. Website: www.William-Poundstone.com

Jason is in the big apple, New York City, for this 10th episode show. He is definitely not looking for income properties as the Hartman Risk Evaluator said there were no good rent-to-value ratios to be found there.     Jason's welcomes author William Poundstone to tell us about his new book, Head in the Cloud: Why Knowing Things Still Matters When Facts are So Easy to Look Up. Mr. Poundstone is also the author of the New York Times best-selling books, Fortune's Formula: The Untold Story of Scientific Betting System that Beat the Casinos and Wall Street, Priceless: The Myth of Fair Value and How to Take Advantage of It and Gaming the Vote: Why Elections Aren't Fair and What We Can Do About it. Key Takeaways: [04:11] Income property is the 'ideal' multi-dimensional asset class but there are others. [07:28] Corporate raiders would creatively acquire a company and part it out akin to income property investors today. [12:29] The upcoming Venture Alliance Mastermind in Chicago includes an appearance by Mish Shedlock.   William Poundstone Interview:   [17:22] William explains the premise of his latest book, Head in the Cloud. [21:13] Having a general knowledge of baseline facts and the Dunning-Kruger effect have humbling assets. [23:38] The larger a person's vocabulary is akin to their ability to think. [27:22] How does America stack up on the map of ignorance? [29:53] Americans will vote for judges with less ethnic sounding names if they don't know the candidates. [36:01] The Kelly Formula informs a user of the optimal amount you should be putting on each bet or investment. Mentioned in This Episode: Renter's Warehouse - Get 3 free months of property management with this link. Jason Hartman Venture Alliance Mastermind Hartman Education William Poundstone

A discussion of the latest title from one of the podcast's favorite authors, William Poundstone. HEAD IN THE CLOUD by William Poundstone

William Poundstone is the author of fourteen books, including Big Secrets, Prisoner's Dilemma, Fortune's Formula, and Are You Smart Enough to Work at Google? He has written for The New York Times, Harper’s, Harvard Business Review, and the Village Voice, among other publications, and has adapted several of his books for ABC television. He is on the board of advisors of the Center for Election Science. Poundstone was born in Morgantown, West Virginia, and studied physics at MIT. His writing often explores the social implications of scientific or philosophic ideas—from voting methods (Gaming the Vote) to competition and cooperation (Prisoner's Dilemma) to the gambling system known as the Kelly criterion (Fortune's Formula). Amazon rated Fortune's Formula the #1 Editor's Pick for nonfiction in 2005. Poundstone won the NYSSCPA's Excellence in Financial Journalism Award in 2011. Key Takeaways: [2:15] What the American public knows and what that says about us [4:40] Why some things are just worth knowing even though you could look them up [8:35] The correlation between vocabulary and your success in life [13:00] How many elected officials most people actually know [16:25] How little we're teaching kids about sex and what impact that's having [18:56] The theory of scientific betting and how to properly use it Website Mentioned: www.william-poundstone.com

Not a day goes by that you don’t pick up your smartphone to access a piece of information. Every dinner party or get together has the scene where everyone races to their phones to look up a fact or prove a point. It’s so easy….so easy in fact that we often think, certainly our kids think, that they don’t need a large basic body of knowledge. Why memorize anything when you can just look it up..it’s all there in the cloud...right? Well it is. But fundamental knowledge does matter. What we know, not what Siri knows, can truly impact and shape the lives we lead, the work we do, the friends we have and really defines our place in the world. We have just witnessed what happens when large groups of people don’t have that basic knowledge. This is the reality that William Poundstone examines in Head in the Cloud: Why Knowing Things Still Matters When Facts Are So Easy to Look Up. My conversation with William Poundstone:

Author William Poundstone discusses the importance of knowledge in your head the modern era.You'll learn:1. Why it's important to still have general knowledge in the era of Google2. Why those who listen to podcasts tend to be the most informed people of all

Author William Poundstone discusses the importance of knowledge in your head in the modern era. You’ll learn Why it’s important to still have general knowledge in the era of Google Why those who listen to podcasts tend to be the most informed people of all ;) It’s nearly impossible for humans to be unpredictable. About Bill William Poundstone is the author of 15 books, including Fortune’s Formula, which was named Amazon Editors’ pick for #1 Nonfiction Book of the year. He has written for The New York Times Book Review, Village Voice, Esquire, Harpers, The Believer, The Economist, and Harvard Business Review. Poundstone lives in Los Angeles. Show notes, transcripts, and more available at http://AwesomeAtYourJob.com/ep39 Copyright © Optimality

Author William Poundstone discusses the importance of knowledge in your head in the modern era. You’ll learn Why it’s important to still have general knowledge in the era of Google Why those who listen to podcasts tend to be the most informed people of all ;) It’s nearly impossible for humans to be unpredictable. About Bill William Poundstone is the author of 15 books, including Fortune’s Formula, which was named Amazon Editors’ pick for #1 Nonfiction Book of the year. He has written for The New York Times Book Review, Village Voice, Esquire, Harpers, The Believer, The Economist,

Reprise of a chat with William Poundstone author of Big Secrets, Bigger Secrets and Biggest Secrets

Reprise of a chat with William Poundstone author of Big Secrets, Bigger Secrets and Biggest Secrets

Check out JS Remote Conf!   02:07 - Rob Miller Introduction Twitter GitHub Blog Big Fish Marketing Text Processing with Ruby: Extracting Value from the Data That Surrounds You with Rob Miller 03:11 - Why does text processing matter? 07:32 - One-off Data Processing, Core Competency The Perl Programming Language 10:36 - Processing Less-structured, Unstructured Data 12:45 - The Command Line Ruby's -e, -n and -p switches Antipatterns Class: IO 29:15 - Abstractions and Refactoring 35:12 - Munging: Tools and Practices transproc 40:57 - Text Processing for Textual Visual Things Conway's Game of Life 42:57 - Parallelization 45:45 - Fanning Data join Picks Text Processing with Ruby: Extracting Value from the Data That Surrounds You with Rob Miller (Avdi) Data Is Plural by Jeremy Singer-Vine (Avdi) RubyConf 2015 Videos (Avdi) Papers We Love (Jessica) transproc (David) Does your data fit in RAM? (David) advisor (David) Swarm Simulator (Chuck) 15 Minute Podcast Listener chat with Charles Wood (Chuck) Toastmasters (Chuck) All Remote Conferences (Chuck) transproc (Rob) Sequel: The Database Toolkit for Ruby (Rob) Priceless: The Myth of Fair Value (and How to Take Advantage of It) by William Poundstone (Rob)

Check out JS Remote Conf!   02:07 - Rob Miller Introduction Twitter GitHub Blog Big Fish Marketing Text Processing with Ruby: Extracting Value from the Data That Surrounds You with Rob Miller 03:11 - Why does text processing matter? 07:32 - One-off Data Processing, Core Competency The Perl Programming Language 10:36 - Processing Less-structured, Unstructured Data 12:45 - The Command Line Ruby's -e, -n and -p switches Antipatterns Class: IO 29:15 - Abstractions and Refactoring 35:12 - Munging: Tools and Practices transproc 40:57 - Text Processing for Textual Visual Things Conway's Game of Life 42:57 - Parallelization 45:45 - Fanning Data join Picks Text Processing with Ruby: Extracting Value from the Data That Surrounds You with Rob Miller (Avdi) Data Is Plural by Jeremy Singer-Vine (Avdi) RubyConf 2015 Videos (Avdi) Papers We Love (Jessica) transproc (David) Does your data fit in RAM? (David) advisor (David) Swarm Simulator (Chuck) 15 Minute Podcast Listener chat with Charles Wood (Chuck) Toastmasters (Chuck) All Remote Conferences (Chuck) transproc (Rob) Sequel: The Database Toolkit for Ruby (Rob) Priceless: The Myth of Fair Value (and How to Take Advantage of It) by William Poundstone (Rob)

Check out JS Remote Conf!   02:07 - Rob Miller Introduction Twitter GitHub Blog Big Fish Marketing Text Processing with Ruby: Extracting Value from the Data That Surrounds You with Rob Miller 03:11 - Why does text processing matter? 07:32 - One-off Data Processing, Core Competency The Perl Programming Language 10:36 - Processing Less-structured, Unstructured Data 12:45 - The Command Line Ruby's -e, -n and -p switches Antipatterns Class: IO 29:15 - Abstractions and Refactoring 35:12 - Munging: Tools and Practices transproc 40:57 - Text Processing for Textual Visual Things Conway's Game of Life 42:57 - Parallelization 45:45 - Fanning Data join Picks Text Processing with Ruby: Extracting Value from the Data That Surrounds You with Rob Miller (Avdi) Data Is Plural by Jeremy Singer-Vine (Avdi) RubyConf 2015 Videos (Avdi) Papers We Love (Jessica) transproc (David) Does your data fit in RAM? (David) advisor (David) Swarm Simulator (Chuck) 15 Minute Podcast Listener chat with Charles Wood (Chuck) Toastmasters (Chuck) All Remote Conferences (Chuck) transproc (Rob) Sequel: The Database Toolkit for Ruby (Rob) Priceless: The Myth of Fair Value (and How to Take Advantage of It) by William Poundstone (Rob)

"You don’t really know your investor and they don’t know you until you go through your first drawdown together." - Natasha Reeve-Gray (Tweet) In this second part of our conversation, Natasha dives into the details of the trading model and portfolio of Altis Partners, her firm. We discuss how they approach risk management, and how they've dealt with drawdowns over the years. She also gives her take on the future of the managed futures industry, what advice she would give to emerging firm managers, and other lessons she has learned along the way. Thanks for listening and please welcome back Natasha Reeve-Gray. Subscribe on: In This Episode, You'll Learn: About how Natasha and her team constructs their portfolio. How their models are adaptive. What their integrated risk approach does and how it works. What she thinks the capacity is of the strategy that her firm has. "The important thing is that the client has what they want and what they bought." - Natasha Reeve-Gray (Tweet) How she defines risk. How correlations play a part in their portfolio. Which sectors of the market do well with their model. How she sets the expectations for what kinds of drawdowns they might have. "When we are refining our program one of the things we want to do is make sure there is no particular reliance on history." - Natasha Reeve-Gray (Tweet) How to help investors with the emotional rollercoaster of drawdowns. "The longer you’re in business, the larger your drawdowns are going to be, so we’re very comfortable talking about it because we have them." - Natasha Reeve-Gray (Tweet) How the firm goes about doing research. How to detect if a certain model stops working. What lessons they have learned from all their years in business. "You hire for what you need not only today, but for the next 12 to 18 months, but not beyond that." - Natasha Reeve-Gray (Tweet) How success changes your mindset. Why it's good to have people to look up to. Her biggest challenge facing her firm today. What investors are not asking when at due diligence meetings with her firm. Why a long term relationship with a client is important. What advice she would give to emerging managers today. Where she thinks the managed futures industry is going as a whole. "I think the CTA industry in general could do a better job of explaining what we do." - Natasha Reeve-Gray (Tweet) Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode: Natasha recommends reading The Hard Thing About Hard Things, a book about building a business and entrepreneurship. She also recommends Fortune's Formula, by William Poundstone. This episode was sponsored by Eurex Exchange: Connect with Altis Partners: Visit the Website: www.AltisPartners.com Call Altis Partners: +44 (0)1534 787700 E-Mail Altis Partners: info@altispartners.com Follow Natasha Reeve-Gray on Linkedin "It’s the only industry where you go ‘here you give me your money, and I’m not going to tell you what’s going to happen in the future because we don’t know.’" - Natasha Reeve-Gray (Tweet)

On the show this week we talk about randomness with science writer William Poundstone, author of the new book Rock Breaks Scissors.Poundstone explains why we’re so terrible at trying to come up with random sequences ourselves—and how understanding these pitfalls can actually help you predict, with accuracy above chance, what someone else is going to do even when he or she is trying, purposefully, to act randomly.These predictions are at the core of Poundstone's book, which offers a practical guide to outguessing and outwitting almost anybody—in activities ranging from Rock, Paper, Scissors (men tend to go with rock, so you can beat them with paper) to investing in stocks.On the show this week we also talk about researchers who are growing mushrooms on diapers to help them biodegrade and Chris disagrees with Neil deGrasse Tyson about something (but still loves him).iTunes: itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/inquiring-minds/id711675943RSS: feeds.feedburner.com/inquiring-mindsStitcher: stitcher.com/podcast/inquiring-minds

My guest today is William Poundstone, an American author, columnist, and skeptic. He has written a number of books including the Big Secrets series and a biography of Carl Sagan. The topic is his book Fortune's Formula: The Untold Story of the Scientific Betting System That Beat the Casinos and Wall Street. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: Claude Shannon The connection between Al Capone The Kelly formula, bookmaking, and the telephone industry Bell Labs and information theory Why, when betting, if there's a small chance of losing everything, you will eventually lose everything Criticisms of the Kelly criterion Ed Thorp, blackjack, and card counting Long-Term Capital Management Martingale vs. Kelly Early development of the Black-Scholes formula Jump in! --- I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, and I'm proud to have delivered 10+ million podcast listens since 2012. Investments, economics, psychology, politics, decision-making, human behavior, entrepreneurship and trend following are all passionately explored and debated on my show. To start? I'd like to give you a great piece of advice you can use in your life and trading journey… cut your losses! You will find much more about that philosophy here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/trend/ You can watch a free video here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/video/ Can't get enough of this episode? You can choose from my thousand plus episodes here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/podcast My social media platforms: Twitter: @covel Facebook: @trendfollowing LinkedIn: @covel Instagram: @mikecovel Hope you enjoy my never-ending podcast conversation!

Michael Covel speaks with William Poundstone. Poundstone is the author of Fortune’s Formula, a book about the Kelly criterion. This is risk management at its heart. All great trend traders have had to deal with Kelly. Covel and Poundstone discuss Claude Shannon; the connection between Al Capone, the Kelly formula, bookmaking, and the telephone industry; Bell Labs and information theory; why, when betting, if there’s a small chance of losing everything, you will eventually lose everything; criticisms of the Kelly criterion; Ed Thorp, blackjack, and card counting; Long-Term Capital Management; Martingale vs. Kelly; and early development of the Black-Scholes formula. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

33voices interviews William Poundstone

William Poundstone discusses his book, Priceless, The Myth of Fair Value (and how to take advantage of it).

William Poundstone discusses his book, Priceless, The Myth of Fair Value (and how to take advantage of it).

William Poundstone reveals, Big Secrets, like the formula for Coke and how the Empire State Building was made to 'vanish' (encore).

William Poundstone reveals, Big Secrets, like the formula for Coke and how the Empire State Building was made to 'vanish' (encore).

William Poundstone talks about his book, Big Secrets, revealing the secret formula for Coke, and how the Empire State Building was made to 'vanish'.

William Poundstone talks about his book, Big Secrets, revealing the secret formula for Coke, and how the Empire State Building was made to 'vanish'.

Author William Poundstone talks about his new book, Gaming The Vote.

Author William Poundstone talks about his new book, Gaming The Vote.

The efficiency of the stock market is a topic of much debate among economists. Yet, a scientific approach to betting effectively may maximize returns in an imperfect market. On this program, William Poundstone discussed the Kelly Formula for optimal investing.