Podcasts about black swan the impact

You see a headline: "Study Shows Coffee Drinkers Live Longer." You share it in 3 seconds flat. But here's what just happened—you confused correlation with causation, inductive observation with deductive proof, and you just became a vector for misinformation. Right now, millions of people are doing the exact same thing, spreading beliefs they think are facts, making decisions based on patterns that don't exist, all while feeling absolutely certain they're thinking clearly.   We live in a world drowning in information—but starving for truth. Every day, you're presented with hundreds of claims, arguments, and patterns. Some are solid. Most are not. And the difference between knowing which is which and just guessing? That's the difference between making good decisions and stumbling through life confused about why things keep going wrong.   Most of us have never been taught the difference between deductive and inductive reasoning. We stumble through life applying deductive certainty to inductive guesses, treating observations as proven facts, and wondering why our conclusions keep failing us. But once we understand which type of reasoning a situation demands, we gain something powerful—the ability to calibrate our confidence appropriately, recognize manipulation, and build every other thinking skill on a foundation that actually works.   By the end of this episode, you'll possess a practical toolkit for improving your logical reasoning—four core strategies, one quick-win technique, and a practice exercise you can start today.   This is Episode 2 of Thinking 101, a new 8-part series on essential thinking skills most of us never learned in school. Links to all episodes are in the description below.       What is Logical Reasoning? But what does logical reasoning entail? At its core, there are two fundamental ways humans draw conclusions, and you're using both right now without consciously choosing between them.   Deductive reasoning moves from general principles to specific conclusions with absolute certainty. If the premises are true, the conclusion must be true. "All mammals have hearts. Dogs are mammals. Therefore, dogs have hearts." There's no wiggle room—if those first two statements are true, the conclusion is guaranteed. This is the realm of mathematics, formal logic, and established law.   Inductive reasoning works in reverse, building from specific observations toward general principles with varying degrees of probability. You observe patterns and infer likely explanations. "I've seen 1,000 swans and they were all white, therefore all swans are probably white." This feels certain, but it's actually just highly probable based on limited evidence. History proved this reasoning wrong when black swans were discovered in Australia.   Both are tools. Neither is "better." The question is which tool fits the job—and whether you're using it correctly.       Loss of Logical Reasoning Skills Why does this matter? Because across every domain of life, this reasoning confusion is costing us.   In our social media consumption, we're drowning in inductive reasoning disguised as deductive proof. Researchers at MIT found that fake news spreads ten times faster than accurate reporting. Why? Because misleading content exploits this confusion. You see a viral post claiming "New study proves smartphones cause depression in teenagers," with graphs and official-looking citations. What you're actually seeing is inductive correlation presented as deductive causation—researchers observed that depressed teenagers often use smartphones more, but that doesn't prove smartphones caused the depression.   And this is where it gets truly terrifying—I need you to hear this carefully:   In 2015, researchers tried to replicate 100 psychology studies published in top scientific journals. Only 36% held up. Read that again: Nearly two-thirds of peer-reviewed, published research couldn't be reproduced. And those false studies? Still being cited. Still shaping policy. Still being shared as "science proves." You're building your worldview on a foundation where 64% of the bricks are made of air.   In our personal relationships, we constantly make inductive inferences about people's intentions and treat them as deductive facts. Your partner forgets to text back three times this week. You observe the pattern, inductively infer "they're losing interest," then act with deductive certainty—becoming distant, accusatory, or defensive. But what if those three instances had three different explanations? What if the pattern we detected isn't actually a pattern at all? We say "you always" or "you never" based on three data points. We end relationships over patterns that never existed.   So why didn't anyone teach us this? Traditional schooling focuses on teaching us what to think—facts, formulas, established knowledge. Deductive reasoning gets attention in math class as a mechanical process for solving equations. Inductive reasoning gets buried in science class, completely disconnected from actual decision-making. We graduated with facts crammed into our heads but no framework for evaluating new claims.   But that changes now.       How To Improve Your Logical Reasoning You now understand the two reasoning systems and why mixing them up is costing you. Let's fix that. These five strategies will give you immediate control over your logical reasoning—starting with the most foundational skill and building to a technique you can use in your next conversation. Label Your Reasoning Type The first step to improving your logical reasoning is becoming aware of which system you're using—and we rarely stop to check.   We flip between deductive and inductive thinking dozens of times per day without realizing it. You see your colleague get promoted after working late, and you instantly conclude that working late leads to promotion—that's inductive. But you're treating it like a deductive rule: "If I work late, I WILL get promoted." The moment you label which type you're using, you regain control.   Start with a daily reasoning journal. At the end of each day, write down three conclusions you made—about people, work, news, anything.   For each conclusion, ask: "What evidence led me here?" If it's general rules applied to specifics (all mammals have hearts, dogs are mammals), you used deduction. If it's patterns from observations (I've seen this three times), you used induction.   Label each one: "D" for deductive, "I" for inductive. This creates conscious awareness. You'll likely find 80-90% of your daily reasoning is inductive—but you've been treating it as deductive certainty.   When you catch yourself saying "always," "never," "definitely," stop and ask: "Is this deductive certainty or inductive probability?" That single pause changes everything.   Practice in real-time during conversations. When someone makes a claim, silently label it: deductive or inductive? Weak reasoning becomes obvious instantly.   After one week of journaling, review your entries. Patterns emerge in your reasoning errors—specific topics where you consistently overstate certainty, or people you make assumptions about. This awareness is the foundation for improvement.       Calibrate Your Confidence Once you've labeled your reasoning type, the next step is matching your certainty level to the strength of your evidence.   Here's where most people fail: they feel 100% certain about conclusions built on three observations. Your brain doesn't naturally calibrate—it defaults to "this feels true, therefore it IS true." But when you explicitly assign probability levels to inductive conclusions, you stop making the most common reasoning error: treating patterns as proven facts.   For every inductive conclusion, assign a percentage. "Given these five observations, I'm 60% confident this pattern is real." Never use 100% for inductive reasoning—by definition, inductive conclusions are probabilistic, not certain.   Use this language shift in conversations: Replace "You always ignore my suggestions" with "I've brought up ideas in the last two meetings and haven't heard feedback, which makes me about 40% confident there's a communication pattern worth discussing." Replace "This definitely works" with "From what I've seen, I'm 70% confident this approach is effective."   Create a certainty threshold for action. Decide: "I need 70% confidence before I make a major decision based on inductive reasoning." This prevents impulsive moves based on weak patterns. Below 50%? Keep observing. Above 80%? Worth acting on.   Keep a confidence log for one week. Write your predictions with probability levels ("80% confident it will rain tomorrow," "60% confident this project will succeed"). Then check if you were right. This trains your calibration. You'll discover whether you're overstating or understating your certainty—and you can adjust.   When someone presents "definitive" claims based on inductive evidence, ask: "What certainty level would you assign that? 60%? 90%?" Watch them realize they've been overstating their case. This question immediately disrupts manipulation.       Hunt for Contradictions Your brain naturally seeks confirming evidence and ignores contradictions—this strategy forces you to do the opposite.   Confirmation bias is the enemy of good inductive reasoning. Once you believe something, your brain becomes a heat-seeking missile for evidence that supports it. The only antidote? Actively hunt for evidence that contradicts your conclusion. It's uncomfortable, yes, but it's the difference between being right and feeling right.   For every inductive conclusion you reach, set a 24-hour "contradiction hunt." Your job is to find at least two pieces of evidence that contradict your conclusion. If you believe "remote work increases productivity," you must find credible sources claiming the opposite.   Use search terms designed to find opposites. Search for "remote work decreases productivity study" or "evidence against intermittent fasting." Force-feed yourself the other side. Google's algorithm wants to confirm your beliefs—you have to actively fight it.   Create a contradiction column in your reasoning journal. For each conclusion (left column), list contradicting evidence (right column). If you can't find any contradictions, you haven't looked hard enough—or you're in an echo chamber.   In debates or discussions, argue the opposite position for 5 minutes. Seriously. If you believe X, spend 5 minutes making the best possible case for NOT X. This breaks confirmation bias and reveals holes in your reasoning you couldn't see before.   Before sharing anything on social media, spend 2 minutes actively searching for contradicting evidence. Search "[claim] debunked" or "[claim] false" or look for the opposite perspective. If you find credible contradictions, pause. The claim is disputed. Either don't share it, or share it with context like "Interesting claim, though [credible source] disputes this because..." This habit trains you to think critically before becoming a misinformation vector.       Question the Sample Most bad inductive reasoning fails the sample size test—and almost no one thinks to ask. Here's the manipulation technique you need to spot: Someone shows you three examples and declares a universal truth. "I know three people who got rich with crypto, therefore crypto makes everyone rich." Three examples. Seven billion people. Your brain treats this as evidence—until you ask about the total number. This question alone dismantles 90% of weak arguments. Every time someone makes an inductive claim, ask out loud: "How many observations is that based on?" Three? Thirty? Three thousand? The number matters enormously. One person's experience is an anecdote. Ten similar experiences start to suggest a pattern. A hundred becomes meaningful. A thousand builds real confidence. Learn the rough sample sizes for different certainty levels. For casual patterns: 10-20 observations. For moderate confidence: 100-500. For high confidence: 1,000+. For scientific certainty: 10,000+. Five examples claiming certainty? That's weak, and now you know it. Always check the total number—whether it's called sample size, denominator, or population. When someone shows examples or cites a study, ask: "Out of how many total?" Three testimonials mean nothing without knowing if it's 3 out of 10 (30% success rate) or 3 out of 10,000 (0.03%). When reading headlines like "Study shows X," click through and find the sample size. "Study of 12 people" is not the same as "Study of 12,000 people." The total number is usually hidden because it reveals how weak the claim really is. In your own reasoning, track your sample. Before concluding "this restaurant is always slow," count: how many times have you been there? Three? That's not "always"—that's barely data. You need at least 10 visits across different times and days before you can claim a pattern. Challenge yourself: Can you find a larger sample that contradicts your small sample? If your three experiences clash with 3,000 online reviews saying the opposite, which should you trust? The larger sample wins unless you have specific reasons to believe it's biased.       The One-Word Test (Quick Win) Here's a technique you can implement in the next 30 seconds that will immediately improve your logical reasoning: stop using absolute language.   Every time you're about to say "always" or "never," catch yourself and replace it with "usually" or "rarely." Every time you're about to say "definitely" or "certainly," use "probably" or "likely" instead.   This single word swap trains your brain to think probabilistically. It acknowledges that most of your reasoning is inductive—based on patterns, not guarantees. And here's the bonus: people will perceive you as more credible because you're not overstating your case.   Try it right now in your next conversation. Watch how often you reach for absolute language—and how much clearer your thinking becomes when you don't use it.       Practice The most effective way to internalize these strategies is through practice with real-world scenarios. The Pattern Detective Challenge Find three claims from your social media feed today—anything that declares a pattern, trend, or "truth" (health advice, political claims, life advice, product recommendations).   For each claim, identify: Is this deductive or inductive reasoning? Write it down. Most will be inductive disguised as deductive. "This supplement WILL boost your energy" sounds deductive, but it's based on inductive observations.   If inductive, assess the sample size. How many observations is this based on? One person's testimonial? A study? How many participants? Is the sample representative of the broader population?   Assign a certainty level. Given the sample size and quality of evidence, what probability would you assign this claim? 30%? 60%? 90%? Be honest—most will be below 70%.   Hunt for contradictions. Spend 5 minutes finding evidence that contradicts the claim. Can you find it? How credible is it? Does it have a larger sample size than the original claim?   Rewrite the claim with calibrated language. Change "Intermittent fasting WILL make you healthier" to "From studies of X people, intermittent fasting appears to improve some health markers for some people, though individual results vary—confidence level: 65%."   Share your analysis with someone. Explain your reasoning process. Teaching others reinforces your own learning and reveals gaps you didn't notice.   Repeat this exercise 3 times per week for one month. By the end, automatic evaluation becomes second nature. You won't need to think about it—it just happens.       The Rewards The journey of improving your logical reasoning is ongoing, but the rewards compound quickly.   You become nearly impossible to manipulate. When you can spot the difference between inductive observation and deductive proof, 90% of manipulation tactics stop working. The car salesman's pitch falls flat. The political ad looks transparent. The social media rage-bait loses its power.   Your relationships improve dramatically. When you stop saying "you always" and start saying "I've noticed this three times," you create space for understanding instead of defensiveness. Conflicts become conversations. Assumptions become questions.   Your professional credibility skyrockets. Leaders who can distinguish between strong deductive arguments and weak inductive patterns make better strategic decisions. When you speak with calibrated confidence—saying "I'm 70% confident" instead of "I'm absolutely certain"—people trust your judgment more, not less.   You build a foundation for every other thinking skill. Spotting logical fallacies, evaluating evidence, resisting cognitive biases, asking better questions—all of these depend on understanding which type of reasoning you're using and which type the situation demands.   You're not just learning a thinking skill—you're installing psychological armor that most people don't even know exists. And in a world where manipulation is the norm, that makes you dangerous to anyone trying to control you. Every week on Substack, I go deeper—sharing personal examples, failed experiments, and lessons I couldn't fit in the video. It's like the director's cut. This week's Substack deep dive into a logical reasoning failure can be found at: https://philmckinney.substack.com/p/kroger-copied-hps-innovation-playbook        Your Thinking 101 Journey This is Episode 2 of Thinking 101: The Essential Skills They Never Taught You—an 8-part foundation series where each episode unlocks the next.   If you missed Episode 1, "Why Thinking Skills Matter Now More Than Ever," start there. It explains why this entire skillset has become essential.   Up next: Episode 3, "Causal Thinking: Beyond Correlation." You'll learn how to distinguish between things that simply happen together and things that actually cause each other—transforming how you evaluate health claims, business strategies, and relationship patterns.   Hit that subscribe button so you don't miss any future episodes. Also - hit the like and notification bell. It helps with the algorithm so others see our content. Why not share this video with a coworker or a family member who you think would benefit from it? …     Because right now, while you've been watching this, someone just shared a lie that felt like truth. The only question is: will you be able to tell the difference?     SOURCES CITED IN THIS EPISODE MIT Media Lab – Misinformation Spread Rate Vosoughi, S., Roy, D., & Aral, S. (2018). The spread of true and false news online. Science, 359(6380), 1146-1151. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aap9559 Indiana University – Misinformation Superspreaders DeVerna, M. R., Aiyappa, R., Pacheco, D., Bryden, J., & Menczer, F. (2024). Identifying and characterizing superspreaders of low-credibility content on Twitter. PLOS ONE, 19(5), e0302201. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0302201 Open Science Collaboration – The Replication Crisis Open Science Collaboration. (2015). Estimating the reproducibility of psychological science. Science, 349(6251), aac4716. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aac4716     ADDITIONAL READING On Inductive Reasoning and Uncertainty Taleb, N. N. (2007). The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable. Random House. On Cognitive Biases and Decision-Making Kahneman, D. (2011). Thinking, Fast and Slow. Farrar, Straus and Giroux. On Confirmation Bias Nickerson, R. S. (1998). Confirmation bias: A ubiquitous phenomenon in many guises. Review of General Psychology, 2(2), 175-220. https://doi.org/10.1037/1089-2680.2.2.175 On Scientific Reproducibility Ioannidis, J. P. A. (2005). Why most published research findings are false. PLOS Medicine, 2(8), e124. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.0020124       Note: All sources cited in this episode have been accessed and verified as of October 2025. The studies referenced are peer-reviewed academic research published in reputable scientific journals, including Science and PLOS ONE.  

Today, we are learning from Suzanne Whitby. Suzanne is a pragmatic optimist dedicated to co-creating hopeful, sustainable futures. A futurer, facilitator, communicator and storyteller, she leads Futures Fit, a futures & foresight consultancy that empowers businesses and communities to use the future to drive tangible change today. She is also the founder of SciComm Success, where she helps scientists and researchers communicate research results and impact, shining a light on the innovation and creativity essential for building better futures. Suzanne is an interdisciplinary researcher at VU Amsterdam, and she explores how place-based, multi-sensory stories of the future can encourage pro-environmental thinking and climate action using her senstoryscapes approach. Suzanne is South African and long-time resident of Innsbruck, Austria. She is an aspiring mindful person who does her best to tread lightly and intentionally on the earth. Let's get started... In this conversation with Suzanne Whitby, I learned: 00:00 Intro 03:55 Looking at experimental smelling futures of ancient Pompei and creating sensory maps. 05:40 Learning about sensory mapping and understanding what a smell or sound means. 09:00 We are making assumptions about how similar people are to us, but in reality, they are different. 10:45 For most of us, we change our minds based on emotions. 12:45 Feeling and experiencing possible futures. 16:30 The deficit model of science communication. 18:10 Discovering different futures and what future we would like to have? Most people want the same sort of things. 23:05 How can we have excuses to justify to ourselves? 25:25 Focus more on what we can gain instead of what we might lose. 29:35 Learning about scenario planning via a game and building resilience. 32:40 Supporting scientists with their communication after the BP oil spill. 35:20 Why communicating with society is important for scientists. 41:25 She got disillusioned by the corporate world in the UK. 43:25 The most important pivot for her business. 47:00 Co-creating hopeful, sustainable futures. 52:05 Equality vs equity, what does it mean? 1:00:15 The ideas are stepping stones. Sometimes an idea has to die in order to take you into a new direction. More about Suzanne Whitby: https://www.linkedin.com/in/suzannewhitby/  https://klimafit.eu/ https://www.futures.fit/  https://suzannewhitby.com/ https://futuringis.com/ (podcast) https://suzannewhitby.com/thegreatswitch/ (A weekly-ish newsletter documenting my journey of switching to tools that are open source, Europe-based, or aligned with better futures for all.) https://peopleplanetprosecco.eu/  https://scicommsuccess.com/ Resources Phoebe Tickell Imagination Activism to Create Systemic Shifts | Phoebe Tickell | IDG Summit 2023 From Inner Growth to Outer Change | Phoebe Tickell | Keynote x ChangeNOW2024 Imagination Activism | Phoebe Tickell - Planet Critical podcast VU Amsterdam Kate McLean - Sensory maps https://www.linkedin.com/posts/maren-urner_wir-m%C3%BCssen-reden-und-zwar-dar%C3%BCber-wie-activity-7312451758335623169-griG (Maren Urner - Wir mussen reden) https://www.linkedin.com/posts/michaelfritz-vivaconagua_miniaturwunderland-hamburg-klima-activity-7310198922885423106-k8a8/ (Why don't you see it video) Scenario planning (Wikipedia) De levende onderneming – Arie de Geus #boekencast afl 1 (Dutch) The Living Company: Growth, Learning and Longevity in business - Arie de Geus (book) The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable by Nassim Nicholas Taleb stem scientists = scientists that work in Science, technology, engineering, and mathematics. Seth Godin Video of the conversation with Suzanne Whitby https://youtu.be/F9l0F6i7aEk Watch the conversation here https://youtu.be/F9l0F6i7aEk

Behold, the eye of Yahweh is on those who fear him,    on those who hope in his steadfast love, that he may deliver their soul from death    and keep them alive in famine. - Psalm 33:18-19   This Episode's Links and Timestamps: 00:00 – Scripture Reading 02:54 – Introduction 20:44 – Some Personal Reflections on Uncertainty, Predictability, and Planning 40:36 – The replies to this viral post are actually filled with wise advice. Take a look, then let's talk game theory. – Joel Abbott, NTB 58:25 – ‘The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable' by Nassim Nicholas Taleb - Goodreads 1:18:38 – Comparing and Contrasting Game Theory, Chaos Theory, and ‘The Black Swan' 1:30:41 – Commentary on Psalm 33

Rick Howard, N2K CyberWire's Chief Analyst and Senior Fellow, discusses the idea that Cybersecurity is radically asymmetrically distributed. It means that cybersecurity risk is not the same for all verticals and knowing that may impact the first principle strategies you choose to protect your enterprise. For a complete reading list and even more information, check out Rick's more detailed essay on the topic. References: André Munro, 2024. Liberal democracy [Explainer]. Encyclopedia Britannica. David Weedmark, 2017. Why do some states require emissions testing? [Explainer]. Autoblog. Kara Rogers, 2020. What Is a Superspreader Event? [Explainer]. Encyclopedia Britannica. Lara Salahi, 2021. 1 Year Later: The ‘Superspreader' Conference That Sparked Boston's COVID Outbreak [News]. NBC10 Boston. Malcolm Gladwell, 2002. The Tipping Point: How Little Things Can Make a Big Difference [Book]. Goodreads. Malcolm Gladwell, 2005. Blink: The Power of Thinking Without Thinking [Book]. Goodreads. Malcolm Gladwell, 2008. Outliers: The Story of Success [Book]. Goodreads. Malcolm Gladwell, 2019. Talking to Strangers: What We Should Know About the People We Don't Know [Book]. Goodreads. Malcolm Gladwell, 2021. The Bomber Mafia: A Dream, a Temptation, and the Longest Night of the Second World War [Book]. Goodreads.  Malcom Gladwell, 2024. Medal of Honor: Stories of Courage [Podcast]. Pushkin Industries. Malcolm Gladwell. Revisionist History [Podcast]. Pushkin Industries. Michael Lewis, 2003. Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game [Book]. Goodreads. Michael Lewis. Against the Rules [Podcast]. Pushkin Industries. Nassim Nicholas Taleb, 2007. The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable [Book]. Goodreads. Rick Howard, 2023. Cybersecurity First Principles: A Reboot of Strategy and Tactics [Book]. Goodreads. Rick Howard, 2023. Cybersecurity First Principles Book Appendix  [Diagram]. N2K CyberWire. Rick Howard, 2023. Cybersecurity moneyball: First principles applied to the workforce gap. [Podcast]. The CyberWire. Rick Howard, Simone Petrella , 2024. The Moneyball Approach to Buying Down Risk, Not Superstars [Presentation]. RSA 2024 Conference. Robert Soucy, 2024. Fascism [Explainer]. Encyclopedia Britannica. Staff, 2022. Information Risk Insights Study: A Clearer Vision for Assessing the Risk of Cyber Incidents [Report]. Cyentia Institute. Staff. Congressional Medal of Honor Recipients [Website]. Congressional Medal of Honor Society. Staff. North American Industry Classification System (NAICS)  [Website]. U.S. Census Bureau. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Brian Tolkin is the Head of Product at Opendoor. Previously, he was one of the early employees at Uber, where he was instrumental in launching and growing UberPool, UberHop, and UberExpress and started one of the first product operations teams in tech. In our conversation, we dive into:• How to enable product and ops to work well together• How to run great product reviews• How to make good decisions with limited data• How he uses the jobs-to-be-done framework at Opendoor• How to stay calm under pressure as a leader• Wild stories from his time at Uber• Challenges faced at Opendoor during the pandemic• Much more—Brought to you by:• Pendo—The only all-in-one product experience platform for any type of application• Explo—Embed customer-facing analytics in your product• Attio—The powerful, flexible CRM for fast-growing startups—Find the transcript and references at: https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/scaling-uber-and-opendoor-brian-tolkin—Where to find Brian Tolkin:• X: https://x.com/briantolkin• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/briantolkin/—Where to find Lenny:• Newsletter: https://www.lennysnewsletter.com• X: https://twitter.com/lennysan• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lennyrachitsky/—In this episode, we cover:(00:00) Brian's background(02:14) Career beginnings at Uber(02:49) Transitioning from product operations to product management(06:47) Product and operations synergy(10:00) Surge pricing at Uber(12:18) Scaling challenges, and stories(15:47) Opendoor and Covid adaptations(25:38) Product reviews and Jobs to Be Done(40:30) The challenges of A/B testing(42:23) Increasing conviction in solutions(44:33) Leveraging intuition in product decisions(47:07) Partnering with Zillow(52:55) Staying calm under pressure(56:25) Finding the “kernel of truth” in product management(01:00:21) Failure corner: Early days of Uber Pool(01:06:11) Lightning round and final thoughts—Referenced:• Twitter's former Head of Product opens up: being fired, meeting Elon, changing stagnant culture, building consumer product, more | Kayvon Beykpour: https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/twitters-former-head-of-product-kayvon-beykpour• Opendoor: https://sell.opendoor.com/• How to sell your ideas and rise within your company | Casey Winters, Eventbrite: https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/how-to-sell-your-ideas-and-rise-within• Thinking beyond frameworks | Casey Winters (Pinterest, Eventbrite, Airbnb, Tinder, Canva, Reddit, Grubhub): https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/thinking-beyond-frameworks-casey• Zigging vs. zagging: How HubSpot built a $30B company | Dharmesh Shah (co-founder/CTO): https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/lessons-from-30-years-of-building• FlashTags: A Simple Hack for Conveying Context Without Confusion: https://www.onstartups.com/flashtags-a-simple-hack-for-conveying-context-without-confusion• Jobs to Be Done Theory: https://www.christenseninstitute.org/theory/jobs-to-be-done• The ultimate guide to JTBD | Bob Moesta (co-creator of the framework): https://www.lennyspodcast.com/the-ultimate-guide-to-jtbd-bob-moesta-co-creator-of-the-framework/• Zillow: https://www.zillow.com/• Zillow, Opendoor announce multi-year partnership: https://investor.opendoor.com/news-releases/news-release-details/zillow-opendoor-announce-multi-year-partnership• Building product at Stripe: craft, metrics, and customer obsession | Jeff Weinstein (Product lead): https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/building-product-at-stripe-jeff-weinstein• Stripe Atlas: https://stripe.com/atlas• Founders podcast: https://www.founderspodcast.com/• Uber will deliver ice cream to you today: https://www.dispatch.com/story/lifestyle/food/2016/07/13/uber-will-deliver-ice-cream/24201840007/• UberKittens: https://www.uber.com/newsroom/uberkittens/• UberPuppies: https://www.uber.com/blog/uberpuppies-want-to-play/• Shoe Dog: A Memoir by the Creator of Nike: https://www.amazon.com/Shoe-Dog-Memoir-Creator-NIKE/dp/1471146723• The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable: https://www.amazon.com/Black-Swan-Impact-Improbable-Incerto/dp/1400063515• The Design of Everyday Things: https://www.amazon.com/dp/0465050654• Shantaram: https://www.amazon.com/Shantaram-SHANTARAM-Paperback-GregoryDavidRoberts/dp/B00QPVJESC• Full Swing on Netflix: https://www.netflix.com/title/81483353• Formula 1: Drive to Survive on Netflix: https://www.netflix.com/title/80204890• Break Point on Netflix: https://www.netflix.com/title/81569920• Air on Prime Video: https://www.amazon.com/AIR-Matt-Damon/dp/B0B8Q3JMCG• Fi smart dog collar: https://tryfi.com/• Particle: https://particlenews.ai/• Sara Beykpour on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sarabeykpour/• A new-parent gift guide for product managers: https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/a-new-parent-gift-guide-for-product• Jeff Holden on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jeffholden/• Travis Kalanick on X: https://x.com/travisk—Production and marketing by https://penname.co/. For inquiries about sponsoring the podcast, email podcast@lennyrachitsky.com.—Lenny may be an investor in the companies discussed. Get full access to Lenny's Newsletter at www.lennysnewsletter.com/subscribe

Nassim Nicholas Taleb popularized a theory in his book "The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable," published in 2007. In the context of the theory, a "black swan" refers to an event that is highly improbable, has a major impact, and is often explained in hindsight as if it were predictable.GET AN OCCASIONAL PERSONAL EMAIL FROM ME: www.makeyourdamnbedpodcast.comTUNE IN ON INSTAGRAM FOR COOL CONTENT: www.instagram.com/mydbpodcastOR BE A REAL GEM + TUNE IN ON PATREON: www.patreon.com/MYDBpodcastOR WATCH ON YOUTUBE: www.youtube.com/juliemerica The opinions expressed by Julie Merica and Make Your Damn Bed Podcast are intended for entertainment purposes only. Make Your Damn Bed podcast is not intended or implied to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. Get bonus content on PatreonSupport this show http://supporter.acast.com/make-your-damn-bed. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The Black SwanThe Black Swan Full Book Introduction Before the discovery of the first black swan, people were convinced that all swans were white. Hence, a “Black Swan” indicates an unexpected and impactful rare event. From the financial crises to the sinking of the Titanic, or the September eleven attacks, “Black Swans” exist in all fields. This book provides an in-depth analysis of the nature and the rules of “Black Swans.” It enables us to understand both how society operates, and how to gain the upper hand in this uncertain world. Author : Nassim Nicholas TalebNassim Nicholas Taleb is a researcher at the New York University Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences. He is the author of several bestselling books, such as ‘Fooled by Randomness', ‘An-tifragile', and ‘Skin in the Game'. As a practical researcher of “uncertainty,” Taleb has written fifty academic papers investigating “uncertainty” and is known as a thinker with “rare courage and broad knowledge.” His thoughts and works have influenced a large population of readers worldwide. He has also helped in making the “Black Swan” become a household concept. Overview | Chapter 1Hi, welcome to Bookey. Today we will unlock the book ‘The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable'. If someone said that tomorrow is always full of unknowns and risks, you may think that they are being a bit alarmist. However, this was true of September the tenth, two thousand and one. Who could have ever predicted that terrorist attacks would happen the very next day? These events stunned the entire world. That morning, terrorists hijacked four passenger airliners. One of the planes crashed on the ground. Two planes crashed into the World Trade Center in New York. The sky was filled with clouds of smoke, and both towers collapsed within two hours. The fourth plane crashed into the Pentagon in Washington and partially damaged the building. Nobody on those four planes survived. About three thousand people were killed, six hundred more than the victims of the attack on Pearl Harbor. It can be said that the September eleventh attacks destroyed the entire World Trade Center and part of the Pentagon. But more importantly, it damaged America's sense of peace and security. What was shocking about the attacks were not only its sudden and disastrous consequences, but also why the Unites States of America, which has the world's most advanced means of communication and intelligence, failed to predict this long-planned plot. Now, you may have an idea about what the term “Black Swan” refers to. It indicates an unexpected and impactful event. It's beyond expectations and brings about immense influence. The September eleven attacks are a typical “Black Swan.” However, if you think that “Black Swans” are limited to national affairs, you are wrong. In fact, “Black Swans” are everywhere. They have an impact on issues ranging from national and social security, to our daily lives. Hence, let's see what the book ‘The Black Swan' has to say about why it's hard to predict a “Black Swan” and how we should cope with the unpredictable future. The author of this book, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, is a researcher at the New York University Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences. He also wrote several bestselling books, such as ‘Fooled by Randomness', ‘Antifragile', and ‘Skin in the Game'. In his early years, he was a businessman and dealt with various financial products in New York and London. Now, he serves as a Distinguished Professor at New York University. ‘The Black Swan' is the epitome of Taleb's thoughts concerning “uncertainty”, and a book full of...

Nassim Nicholas Taleb'in "The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable" ( 2007 ) kitabının özeti  ⁠İnstagram⁠ ⁠YouTube⁠ ⁠Twitter⁠ İletişim: aghazalbagheri@gmail.com

Oie Bom dia!   Você já ouviu falar na lógica do CISNE NEGRO?   Esse é um conceito proposto por Nassim Nicholas Taleb em seu livro "The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable". A ideia central é que eventos altamente improváveis, ou seja, aqueles que estão além da nossa compreensão e previsão, podem ter um impacto significativo em nossas vidas e na sociedade como um todo.   A maioria de nós tende a subestimar a importância dos eventos raros e imprevisíveis, pois nossa compreensão do mundo é limitada pela nossa experiência passada e pelo nosso viés cognitivo.   Nós deveríamos estar preparados para lidar com esses eventos imprevisíveis, adotando uma postura mais cautelosa e flexível diante do desconhecido.   Cada um de nós líderes PRECISA ser mais humildes em relação ao nosso conhecimento, a questionar nossas suposições e a nos preparar para o inesperado.   Na minha #provocaçãododia, trago meu olhar sobre ess a incerteza inerente ao mundo em que vivemos e a NECESSIDADE de estarmos sempre prontos para lidar com o inesperado. Aprender a lidar com a incerteza e a imprevisibilidade é fundamental para navegar em um mundo cada vez mais complexo e em constante mudança. Então eu tenho que saber TUDO SOBRE TUDO? Não, né?   Assiste aí minha opinião sobre isso e comenta aqui...   Quero muito ouvir também a sua opinião e promover uma discussão saudável sobre esse assunto importante. Junte-se a nós para uma reflexão profunda sobre a liderança no ambiente de trabalho.

On today's episode, BJ sits down with Dan Hauber, Vice President at Transportation Resource Associates, Inc. Dan talks about his journey to employment at TRA, how he has worked to keep our railways safe over his 25 year career, and how TRA is innovating in the future of public transport safety. Resources mentioned: Form, Design and the City: Philadelphia Department of Records  The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (Incerto)by Nassim Nicholas Taleb“The Power Broker: Robert Moses and the Fall of New York” by Robert A. CaroCalls-to-action: Inspiring People and Places is brought to you by MCFA. Visit our website www.MCFAglobal.com and sign up for our weekly newsletter where we curate some of the top industry articles of the week and give you a dose of inspiration as you head into the weekend!  MCFA IS HIRING!!  If you or anyone you know are looking to work in the Planning, Project Development, Project Management, or Construction Management field, contact us through our website. Interns to Executives...we need great people to help us innovate and inspire, plan, develop and build our nation's infrastructure.  Check out our MUST FILL positions here https://mcfaglobal.com/careers/.  We reward the bold and the action oriented so if you don't see a position but think you are a fit...send us an email!  Learn more at www.MCFAGlobal.comAuthor: BJ Kraemer, MCFAKeywords: MCFA, Architecture, Construction, Engineering, Public Engineers, Military Engineers, United States Military Academy, Veteran Affairs, Development, Veteran, Military, SEC

No one can predict the future, but that doesn't mean we can't prepare for it. We'll explore the concept of black swan innovation and discuss how leaders can respond to these events when they occur. We will also look at some examples of black swan innovations that have profoundly impacted society. Leaders can minimize the negative consequences of these unpredictable occurrences by understanding what a black swan event is and how to prepare for it. So, What is a Black Swan Innovation? A Black Swan innovation is an unpredictable event or occurrence that changes the course of an industry or business. It is something that no one could have ever predicted and can completely overturn the status quo. The term "black swan" comes from the idea that black swans are events or occurrences that are so rare that they are almost impossible to predict. The black swan was given its name because all other swans were white before being discovered in Australia. Consequently, the bird was thought of as an impossibility. The Black Swan Nassim Taleb popularized the term in his book, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable. In his book, Nassim discusses the idea of black swan events and how they can majorly impact businesses and industries. He argues we should not focus on predicting these events but be prepared for them when they occur. Taleb believes we should not prioritize past data when making predictions, as this data may not indicate future outcomes. Instead, it is crucial to focus on the present and future rather than the past. Hindsight Risk Hindsight claims of having seen a black swan can be misleading because they can lead to inaccurate assessments of the probability of an event. For example, if someone says they saw a black swan before it happened, it could give a false impression that the event was more likely than it was. The event could lead to people making decisions based on inaccurate information. How To Prepare for Black Swan Events Leaders should always be prepared for the unexpected, including being ready for black swan events. Before a black swan occurs, leaders should ensure accurate information about the probability of a range of events happening. This information can help them make sound decisions in the face of a black swan when it happens. Leaders should have a plan in place for how to respond to a black swan. This plan should include contingencies for various potential scenarios. By being prepared, leaders can minimize the negative consequences of a black swan event. Leaders should be prepared for many different types of black swan events. Some examples include: Natural Disasters A natural disaster is a catastrophic event caused by natural phenomena such as floods, hurricanes, earthquakes, or tornadoes. Financial Crises A financial crisis is when the value of financial assets collapses, leading to a liquidity crisis and often a recession. Political Unrest Political unrest is when social order is disrupted due to protests or civil unrest. Technological and Innovation Disruptions A technological disruption is an event that occurs when a new technology is introduced that disrupts or replaces the status quo entirely. By being prepared for these and other types of black swan events, leaders can minimize the negative consequences that these events can have on their organizations. Examples of Black Swan Events Some past examples of black swan innovation include: Printing Press Before the printing press, books were hand-copied by scribes, which was a slow and expensive process. The printing press allowed for books to be printed in large quantities, which made them more affordable and allowed for more people to access them. The printing press led to a period of rapid intellectual growth and helped to spread knowledge throughout the world. Electricity Before the discovery of electricity, people relied on candles and other forms of light. Electricity allowed the development of new technologies such as light bulbs, radios, and televisions. The discovery led to a period of rapid technological growth and helped improve many people's quality of life. Internet The internet has allowed for the exchange of information and ideas on a previously unimaginable scale. It has also allowed for the development of new technologies, such as social media, which has revolutionized how people interact. Additionally, the internet has made it easier for people to access information and has led to a period of rapid economic growth. By allowing for the exchange of information and ideas on a global scale, the internet has had a far-reaching impact on society that is difficult to overestimate. Each of these inventions was a game-changer that completely disrupted the status quo. They were all considered impossible until they happened, and they each profoundly impacted society. Responding To A Black Swan Event If a leader is suddenly faced with a black swan event they did not prepare for, there are several steps they can take to minimize the negative consequences. 1.       Assess the situation and gather as much information as possible. This information can help make informed decisions about responding to the event. 2.       Develop a plan for how to respond to the event. This plan should include contingencies for various potential scenarios. By being prepared, leaders can minimize the negative consequences of a black swan event. 3.       Communicate with their team and stakeholders. Open communication is essential during a crisis. Leaders should keep everyone updated on the situation and let them know what steps to address the issue. 4.       Focus on maintaining calm and order, which can be difficult during a chaotic event, but it is essential to maintain control. Leaders should provide clear instructions and expectations to their team and be available to answer questions and address concerns. 5.       Take the time to review the situation after it has passed. Reviewing can help one learn from experience and adjust plans for future events. While there is no way to predict or prepare for every possible black swan event, leaders can minimize the adverse effects of these events by being prepared and taking quick, decisive action when they occur. Not If But When It is not if a black swan event will occur, but when. Black swan innovation is like a tidal wave — it is unpredictable, but it can cause a lot of damage when it hits. However, leaders can minimize the negative consequences if they are prepared for black swan events. By being proactive and staying calm under pressure, leaders can help their team weather the storm. In the aftermath, taking the time to review what happened and learn from the experience is crucial. As Nelson Mandela once said, "I never lose. I either win or learn."

Get the full audiobook summary, PDF, infographic and animated book summary at https://www.getstoryshots.com (https://www.getstoryshots.com) StoryShots Summary and Review of The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable By Nassim Nicholas TalebDisclaimer: This is an unofficial summary and analysis. IntroductionHave you ever made a comprehensive plan, but it failed anyway? Do you find yourself in extreme positive or negative situations and fail to make the best choice? Well, you are not alone. Better still, you are in good company. Even plans made with endless resources can fail. Governments cannot address problems such as unemployment and war. They also cannot seize opportunities by misallocating public resources. Better planning will enable you to capitalize on opportunities. Preparedness will allow you to cut losses when disasters strike. How do you prepare for unexpected life events? Can you improve the success rate of your plans? The Black Swan is based on the premise that life is full of surprises. Some are good, and some are catastrophic. The book reviews events such as the rise of the Internet and devastating wars. It also studies our tendency to offer explanations when confronted with significant events. The book offers insight into the nature of unexpected events. It also looks at typical human reactions. Finally, ithttps://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/22/books/chapters/0422-1st-tale.html ( provides tips on managing life's extremes better). About Nassim Nicholas TalebNassim Nicholas Taleb is a Lebanese American author. He is also a statistician, risk analyst, and former options trader. The Black Swan is one of the five-volume philosophical essays, Incerto. He published Incerto between 2001 and 2018. Taleb teaches risk engineering at the NYU Tandon School of Engineering and is a Risk and Decision Analysis journal co-editor. In addition, the remarkable statistician has authored over a dozen inspiring books. Taleb's approach to risk management saw him profit from contemporary financial crises. He advocates for a black swan approach to financial markets that caters to hard-to-predict events in decision-making. Taleb also advocates for decentralized scientific research and aims to overcome gaps in current studies.  Nassim Taleb authored four other books in Incerto. These books have won many accolades and have gained a global audience. Taleb's unique style includes a mixed narrative; the reporting is semi-autobiographical and philosophical. It has led The Black Swan to win several awards. StoryShot #1: Black Swan Events are Unprecedented and Have a Huge Impact. Later, They Are Explained Away as PredictableHistory and society jump—incremental change does not happen as we expect. The scientific approach involves tracking events based on progression. Unfortunately, societies move from fracture to fracture, and explaining events using a cause-and-effect basis is flawed. People mainly saw white swans for the majority of history. Some societies even believed that black swans did not exist. A group of explorers first saw a black swan in Western Australia in 1967. The stunning news spread across Europe and the world like wildfire. The tale of the black swan inspired many scholars. Philosophers such ashttps://www.investopedia.com/terms/j/john-stuart-mill.asp ( John Stuart Mill) used the term ‘black swan' when referring to rare, improbable events. Taleb proposes that black swan events have the following characteristics:  They are not expected. They have a considerable impact on the world. People later give convincing explanations of what happened. Notable black swan events include World War II and the market crash of 1987. 9/11 and the discovery of antibiotics are also black swan events. The Lebanese Civil War was a black swan event. Christians and Muslims had lived peacefully for over 1300 years. The Lebanese culture preached tolerance. Schoolchildren respected their neighbors' cultures. A...

The Buzz 1: In his 2007 book “The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable”, author and former options trader Nassim Nicholas Taleb focuses on the extreme impact of rare and unpredictable outlier events—and the human tendency to find simplistic explanations for these events, retrospectively. He calls this the Black Swan theory. The Buzz 2: “If you ever do have to heed a forecast, keep in mind that its accuracy degrades rapidly as you extend it through time.” The Buzz 3: “We see the obvious and visible consequences, not the invisible and less obvious ones. Yet those unseen consequences…generally are more meaningful.” Gone are the days when, as a whole, Planning & Analysis for the office of the CFO and the enterprise could be ‘just OK.' With black swan events becoming the norm, requiring guidance and scenario modeling, FP&A can no longer wait on gathering data from convoluted spreadsheets and uncollaborative business units. Yes, the pressure is on the CFO to deliver highly credible plans and ever better analysis. But how? The answer: Modern planning processes and tools – adopting extended planning and analysis, analytics and visualization, and machine learning – will help you transform your company's Finance function from good to great. We'll ask Jon Essig at SimpleFi Solutions, Chris Ortega at Fresh FP&A, and Floyd Conrad at SAP for their take on The Black Swan vs Transforming Your FP&A from Good to Great!

Season 2 Episode 20 | Recorded January 24, 2022 thank you to our supporters this week! Amaka.com On today's episode, Scott and Zach tackle the tough subjects, such as staying sober, dressing up, touching knees, Mormon mentioning, subtle jabs, and more with the very special self-proclaimed cartoonist, MC, CPE presenter, standup comedian, comptroller, podcast host, fry-sauce connoisseur, and master of all thing CPE comedy Greg Kyte. *A little tongue-twisting talk on The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, choirs, and context *On being the son of a wool-monger and grandson of a Boeing financial forecaster, and Greg's angelic childhood demeanor *How Greg made it from middle-school math teacher to CPA by way of a summer job and standup *Resolving Scott's need for attention... without chopsticks *About Greg's work ethic, and integrity and what really drives him – the fear of failure *Living life as an ambivert *The art of cartooning *Greg's history of podcasting *Pricing shaming *Investment strategy turned life plan: 85% security, 15% crapshoots *Barbells, Speedos, and tigers – oh my! *Freedom and Free CPE with Oh My Fraud! (Now with 11 episodes to hear!) *Fry sauce matters – two parts mayo, one part ketchup, catsup, or however you spell it where you live ... Check out Greg's toons: https://www.instagram.com/exposuredrafts/ Listen to Oh My Fraud: https://ohmyfraud.com/ Talk to Greg: https://www.linkedin.com/in/gregkyte/ Get your UT Fry Sauce merch here: https://utfrysauce.com/ A Thrivecast discussion on perfecting niches: https://thriveal.com/resources/podcast-episode/niches-bring-stitches-and-an-interview-with-jason-blumer/ The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable https://amzn.to/3NnMcf6 Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder https://amzn.to/3MfBGoV Shout out to that church with all the words, that choir that got renamed, that place that makes The Dude's cardigan, Pendleton, The Journal of Accountancy, monkey bars, Oprah, Men at Work, The Police, all the children of the ‘80s, Gusto, teleprompters, Oh My Fraud!, Venn diagrams, Gary Larson, Scott Adams, Dilbert, Caleb Newquist, The Far Side, Going Concern, Rubik Yeriazarian and RuBook Creative, EY, Divvy, the law of attraction, Jason Blumer, Thrivecast, Tom Hood, Accounting Today, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Sam's No. 3 --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/sonsofcpas/message

The Buzz 1: In his 2007 book “The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable”, author and former options trader Nassim Nicholas Taleb focuses on the extreme impact of rare and unpredictable outlier events—and the human tendency to find simplistic explanations for these events, retrospectively. He calls this the Black Swan theory. The Buzz 2: “If you ever do have to heed a forecast, keep in mind that its accuracy degrades rapidly as you extend it through time.” The Buzz 3: “We see the obvious and visible consequences, not the invisible and less obvious ones. Yet those unseen consequences…generally are more meaningful.” Gone are the days when, as a whole, Planning & Analysis for the office of the CFO and the enterprise could be ‘just OK.' With black swan events becoming the norm, requiring guidance and scenario modeling, FP&A can no longer wait on gathering data from convoluted spreadsheets and uncollaborative business units. Yes, the pressure is on the CFO to deliver highly credible plans and ever better analysis. But how? The answer: Modern planning processes and tools – adopting extended planning and analysis, analytics and visualization, and machine learning – will help you transform your company's Finance function from good to great. We'll ask Jon Essig at SimpleFi Solutions, Chris Ortega at Fresh FP&A, and Floyd Conrad at SAP for their take on The Black Swan vs Transforming Your FP&A from Good to Great!

The Buzz 1: In his 2007 book “The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable”, author and former options trader Nassim Nicholas Taleb focuses on the extreme impact of rare and unpredictable outlier events—and the human tendency to find simplistic explanations for these events, retrospectively. He calls this the Black Swan theory. The Buzz 2: “If you ever do have to heed a forecast, keep in mind that its accuracy degrades rapidly as you extend it through time.” The Buzz 3: “We see the obvious and visible consequences, not the invisible and less obvious ones. Yet those unseen consequences…generally are more meaningful.” Gone are the days when, as a whole, Planning & Analysis for the office of the CFO and the enterprise could be ‘just OK.' With black swan events becoming the norm, requiring guidance and scenario modeling, FP&A can no longer wait on gathering data from convoluted spreadsheets and uncollaborative business units. Yes, the pressure is on the CFO to deliver highly credible plans and ever better analysis. But how? The answer: Modern planning processes and tools – adopting extended planning and analysis, analytics and visualization, and machine learning – will help you transform your company's Finance function from good to great. We'll ask Jon Essig at SimpleFi Solutions, Chris Ortega at Fresh FP&A, and Floyd Conrad at SAP for their take on The Black Swan vs Transforming Your FP&A from Good to Great!

In this week's episode, host Kristin Hayes talks with Matt Shields, a senior offshore wind analyst at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. Among other research projects, the lab conducts offshore wind techno-economic analysis, which involves developing cost models, analyzing market and technology trends, and projecting the future costs of offshore wind. Shields is the lead author of a new study that explores the demand for a domestic offshore wind energy supply chain following the Biden administration's March 2021 goal to install 30 gigawatts of offshore wind in the United States by 2030. Shields and Hayes discuss some challenges to achieving the 2030 goal—including constraints on the number of turbine installation vessels and ports—along with the potential employment impacts of building a domestic supply chain for offshore wind, and how best to synchronize the design of turbines, installation vessels, and ports along the supply chain. References and recommendations: “Supply Chain Road Map for Offshore Wind Energy” by Matt Shields, Ruth Marsh, Jeremy Stefek, Frank Oteri, Ross Gould, Noé Rouxel, Katherine Diaz, Javier Molinero, Abigayle Moser, Courtney Malvik, and Sam Tirone; https://www.nrel.gov/wind/offshore-supply-chain-road-map.html “Offshore Wind Market Report: 2021 Edition” by Walter Musial, Paul Spitsen, Philipp Beiter, Patrick Duffy, Melinda Marquis, Abryn Cooperman, Rob Hammond, and Matt Shields; https://www.energy.gov/eere/wind/articles/offshore-wind-market-report-2021-edition-released “Supply Chain Contracting Forecast for U.S. Offshore Wind Power—The Updated and Expanded 2021 Edition” by the Special Initiative on Offshore Wind; https://cpb-us-w2.wpmucdn.com/sites.udel.edu/dist/e/10028/files/2021/10/SIOW-supply-chain-report-2021-update-FINAL-1.pdf “Offshore Wind Insider” podcast; https://www.offshorewindus.org/oswinsider/ “The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable” by Nassim Nicholas Taleb; https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/176226/the-black-swan-second-edition-by-nassim-nicholas-taleb/

With the COVID-19 pandemic and increased market volatility, investors are now forced to look for assets that will be resilient throughout the economic cycle. Farmland is gaining more recognition as an attractive asset class and we are joined today by Chris Chard, an Investment Manager at Sower Farmland to discuss why you should invest in agricultural farmland assets. Chris has a background in Investment Sales and Agriculture. After graduating from business school he has focused for over 25 years on helping Advisors and Institutional Investors become more diversified and successful with their investments. Let's get right to it. [00:01 - 13:23] Opening Segment Welcoming Chris to the show  From investment advisor to agricultural investor [13:24 - 30:11] Things You Should Know Before Investing in Farmland The impact of technology on farmland investment Farmland's resilience in the pandemic and recession Chris talks about the yield component of the investment The impact of climate change on agriculture investment [30:12 - 33:49] Wrapping Up! Chris on why you should invest in agricultural farmland as an asset class today Connect with Chris (See details below) Resources Mentioned https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Black_Swan:_The_Impact_of_the_Highly_Improbable (The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Connect with Chris: Email:CChard@SowerFarmland.com  Phone: 651 295-9776 Connect with me: https://www.linkedin.com/in/brian-c-adams/ (LinkedIn) LIKE, SUBSCRIBE, AND LEAVE US  A REVIEW on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, or whatever platform you listen on. Thank you for tuning in and Stay Tuned for the Next Episode COMING SOON!

Brandon Neely, an entrepreneur, Profit First and Bank On Yourself Professional, and the co-host of Wealth Wisdom Financial Podcast with his wife Amanda Neely. They founded and managed Overflow Coffee Bar, L3C from 2008 through 2018. Now, they share their experiential knowledge through podcasting and through developing personalized financial strategies for individuals and couples and profitability strategies for businesses. This episode talks about: How do you invest and build wealth during uncertain times? Does the Ukraine-Russia war have an impact on us financially in the U.S? What is the“STILL Method”? How does anyone use this method to predictably win the money game? Factors for investing, other than the rate of return Why the Bank on Yourself Strategy is considered the best savings vehicle How to mitigate your investment portfolio from Black Swan events? What does it mean to be truly diversified? The importance of creating a financial plan. Recommended book: “The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable” By Nassim Nicholas Taleb To connect with Brandon Neely, please visit:

البجعة السوداء: تداعيات غير المتوقع للغاية هو كتاب صدر عام 2007 لنسيم نيكولاس طالب. يركز الكتاب على التأثير الشديد للأحداث الشاذة النادرة والتي لا يمكن التنبؤ بها، وما يسميه طالب البجع الأسود، والميل البشري لإيجاد تفسيرات مبسطة لهذه الأحداث بالاعتماد على دراسة الماضي. اعداد وتقديم عمر السعدي مراجعة لغوية ربيع الشريطي The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable. Review in english https://www.oksaadi.com/podcast/

Guest: Jared Atkinson, Adversary Detection Technical Director at SpecterOps Topics: What are bad/good/great detections? Is this all about the Bianco's pyramid? Is high good and low bad? How should we judge the quality of detections? Can there be a quality framework? Is that judgment going to be site specific? What should we do to build more good directions? Is this all about reducing false positives? Can we really measure false negatives? How can we approach this? How can we test for detection goodness in the real world? What are the methods that work? It can't be just about paper ATT&CK coverage, right? What are your top 3 tips for improving the detection practice at an organization? Resources: “The Pyramid of Pain” post by David Bianco “On Threat Detection Uncertainty” “Detection Coverage and Detection-in-Depth”  “Detection in Depth” by SpecterOps “Philosophy of Science: Rationality Without Foundations" by Karl Popper (yes, really) Red Canary “2021 Threat Detection Report”  "The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable" by Nassim Nicholas Taleb John Piaget's theory of cognitive development

Ryan walks through Taleb's discussion of the frailty of our knowledge, how a Dr. Who episode relates to our methods of inference, and how not to be a sucker for the Black Swan. Read the blog: https://rtayers.wixsite.com/sanctifyingmyth/post/the-black-swan-impact-of-the-highly-improbable Join the conversation: https://www.facebook.com/groups/321938265648106 --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/the-life-given/message

We're back! Apologies for the delay, but Vaden got married and Ben was summoned to be an astronaut on the next billionaire's vacation to Venus. This week we're talking about how to forecast the future (with this one simple and easy trick! Astrologers hate them!). Specifically, we're diving into Philip Tetlock's work on Superforecasting (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superforecasting:_The_Art_and_Science_of_Prediction). So what's the deal? Is it possible to "harness the wisdom of the crowd to forecast world events" (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Good_Judgment_Project)? Or is the whole thing just a result of sloppy statistics? We believe the latter is likely to be true with probability 64.9% - no, wait, 66.1%. Intro segment: "The Sentience Debate": The moral value of shrimps, insects, and oysters (https://www.facebook.com/103405457813911/videos/254164216090604) Relevant timestamps: 10:05: "Even if there's only a one in one hundred chance, or one in one thousand chance, that insects are sentient given current information, and if we're killing trillions or quadrillions of insects in ways that are preventable or avoidable or that we can in various ways mitigate that harm... then we should consider that possibility." 25:47: "If you're all going to work on pain in invertebrates, I pity you in many respects... In my previous work, I was used to running experiments and getting a clear answer, and I could say what these animals do and what they don't do. But when I started to think about what they might be feeling, you meet this frustration, that after maybe about 15 years of research, if someone asks me do they feel pain, my answer is 'maybe'... a strong 'maybe'... you cannot discount the possibility." 46:47: "It is not 100% clear to me that plants are non sentient. I do think that animals including insects are much more likely to be sentient than plants are, but I would not have a credence of zero that plants are sentient." 1:01:59: "So the hard problem I would like to ask the panel is: If you were to compare the moral weight of one ant to the moral weight of one human, what ratio would you put? How much more is a human worth than an ant? 100:1? 1000:1? 10:1? Or maybe 1:1? ... Let's start with Jamie." Main References: Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction - Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superforecasting:_The_Art_and_Science_of_Prediction) How Policymakers Can Improve Crisis Planning (https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-10-13/better-crystal-ball) The Good Judgment Project - Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Good_Judgment_Project) Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?: Tetlock, Philip E.: 9780691128719: Books - Amazon.ca (https://www.amazon.ca/Expert-Political-Judgment-Good-Know/dp/0691128715) Additional references mentioned in the episode: The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Drunkard%27s_Walk) The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable - Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Black_Swan:_The_Impact_of_the_Highly_Improbable) Book Review: Superforecasting | Slate Star Codex (https://slatestarcodex.com/2016/02/04/book-review-superforecasting/) Pandemic Uncovers the Limitations of Superforecasting – We Are Not Saved (https://wearenotsaved.com/2020/04/18/pandemic-uncovers-the-ridiculousness-of-superforecasting/) My Final Case Against Superforecasting (with criticisms considered, objections noted, and assumptions buttressed) – We Are Not Saved (https://wearenotsaved.com/2020/05/30/my-final-case-against-superforecasting-with-criticisms-considered-objections-noted-and-assumptions-buttressed/) Use your Good Judgement and send us email at incrementspodcast@gmail.com.

Defining Grey Swan events such as the Covid-19 pandemic. [2:11]How cognitive biases influence the ways businesses view research and data. [6:48]The impact of Grey Swan events and crises on a company's financial performance. [8:38]Five key focus areas that determine whether a business will weather a Grey Swan event or not. [10:33]The critical role of organizational resilience during Grey Swan events. [13:05]The most important question on this podcast. [19:50]Additional Resources:Aon's websiteRespecting the Grey Swan compiled by Pentland AnalyticsMentioned on the episode:2007 book The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable by Narssim Nicholas Taleb2015 TED Talk “The next outbreak? We're not ready” by Bill GatesTweetables:“The vast majority of these scenarios are Grey Swan events. The companies knew they could potentially occur, they just weren't prepared for them” — Jason Disborough“If you've had a major crisis and you don't get it right, the impact that can have on your organization and shareholder value can be immense.” — Jason Disborough“The way to build organizational resilience through these Grey Swan scenarios is with practice.” — Jason Disborough“There is a future and it's potentially bright if we work our way through this in the most responsible and positive way.” — Jason Disborough

In this video I will talk about The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable book by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. This book is about the random and rare events with extreme effects. The book argues that these events have an increasingly bigger effect on our lives, and currently we don't take them into account when we make predictions about the future. Twitter: https://twitter.com/AttilaonthWorld YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCADpTO2CJBS7HNudJu9-nvg

Matt Hosking - Goals, Strategy, and Business Agility: Here to call it out!Practitioner and trainer, Matt Hosking has genuinely broad, cross industry and sector experience, forming a deep understanding of what it is to achieve business agility. His experimentation started in the 90's and contributed to his simple definition of agile today which anyone can understand: Make tomorrow better than yesterday. Stripping all the jargon away Matt gets to the heart of agile, making it accessible and relevant for everyone.Matt underscores the importance of leadership and modern management technique to enable change and deal with organisational inertia. He makes the case for a major update to the management practices inherited from the 90s and earlier but also identifies that Agile has not always spoken well to the senior management teams about business agility. Fortunately, Matt's curiosity for product, business strategy and organisational agility means he is well placed to comment and help.And Matt will be exactly the coach to step forward to call out what is missing from your change agenda and your strategy. Matt goes through the ingredients necessary to bring great leadership and change to the organisation. And as for change, people genuinely like change, but only if it is handled right.Finally, Matt talks about the benefits of Product over Project and how it is becoming the norm and in fact is the goto sate for future companies.On Matt's reading List beyond David Marquet generally, is:Predictably Irrational: The Hidden Forces That Shape Our Decisions,2008 book by Dan ArielyThe Goal, 1984, is a management-oriented novel by Eliyahu M. Goldratt,Honourable mention to The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, 2007 book by author and former options trader Nassim Nicholas Taleb.Contact Matt:@MattAgileCoachlinkedin.com/in/matthosking74#agile #agilecaoch #agilementorhttps://agilitybynature.com/contact-us/ Our GDPR privacy policy was updated on August 8, 2022. Visit acast.com/privacy for more information.

Even during this period of isolation, and with no venues open for you to perform, its still a great time to work on your live performance, because if you don't have a live show worth watching, no one will pay attention, especially if you're only platform is on Facebook Live. Don't make your live show the last thing on your list of things to accomplish in your career. On this episode, we have back in the studio Larry Butler. Larry has devoted his entire life to the live performance side of the music business. He played keyboards and guitar in bar bands during high school and college in Ohio, which evolved into club and concert promoting, and then tour manager for such artists as Randy Newman, Ry Cooder and Isaac Hayes. Those efforts led to 20+ years at Warner Bros. Records as VP Artist Relations. Although the focus at WBR was to utilize touring to sell records, he also coached many young artists in performance, staging and media relations. During this episode, we discuss: When doing a Facebook Live Performance, remember your job is to entertain, and your performance is key to attracting and keeping your viewers. Make your boring live performance entertaining. Your iphone is a conduit to a visual medium. Choreograph your show. Have a Banner Promoting Yourself. Determining how long your performance on Facebook Live be. Using body language to convey your emotions during a song. Using proper microphone etiquette. How you entertain your audience is timeless. Larry heads up Did It Music (http://www.diditmusic.com) in Nashville Tennessee. His focus these days is teaching young singer/songwriter/performers in the art of becoming experienced artist/writer/entertainers. His most recent book is The Singer/Songwriter Rule Book: 101 Ways To Help You Improve Your Chances Of Success, which is available at Amazon in digital and print. Books and websites mentioned on the show: "The Black Swan" (The Impact of the Highly Improbable) - by Nassim Nicholas Taleb "All You Need To Know About The Music Business (10th edition)" - by Donald Passman "The Plain And Simple Guide To Music Publishing (4th edition)" - by Randall Wixen "A New Earth" - by Eckhart Tolle "The War of Art" - by Stephen Pressfield "Tunesmith" - by Jimmy Webb ASCAP Daily Brief by Dean Kay   Billboard country update by Tom Roland   The Lefsetz Letter by Bob Lefsetz   Pollstar.com    The Business Side of Music ™ © 2020 Beyond the Music Co-Produced & Hosted (by the guy who has a face for podcasting): Bob Bender  Co-Producer, Creator & Technical Advisor (the man behind the curtain): Tom Sabella Audio Engineer (one really cool guy): Jim Tennaboe Director of Video & Continuity (the brains of the entire operation): Deborah Halle Lighting Director (the inventor of video): Mark Pleasant Editor (the “ums' and “aahs' removal guy and who makes us sound good): Mark Sabella Marketing & Social Media: Kaitlin Fritts All Around Problem Solver: Connie Ribas Recorded at: The Bunker in Franklin, TN (except during the Covid 19 pandemic, then it's pretty much done VIA Skype or over the phone, with the exception for those fearless enough to come to Bob Bender's living room… and there are a few). Mixed & Mastered at: Music Dog Studios in Nashville, TN Website: businesssideofmusic.com  Stream or Download (free) businesssideofmusic.com  To submit to be interviewed: musicpodcast@mail.com Sponsorship information businesssideofmusic.com/sponsor-affiliate/ Join our mailing list for show announcements, career advice, industry discounts, free gifts and more.  Like Free Special Thanks to Tom Sabella and Traci Snow for producing and hosting over 100 episodes of the original “Business Side of Music” podcast, and trusting us to carry on their legacy. For our disclaimer and all its details, please click on the applicable link on our website. The music provided for this episode is from: Artist: Phil Keaggy Single: "Germs On The Run" Composer: Phil Keaggy

Nassim Taleb is a literary essayist hedge fund manager derivatives trader and professor of risk engineering at The Polytechnic Institute of New York University. But he is best known these days as the author of The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable. During a recent visit to Wharton as part of The Goldstone Forum he spoke with Wharton finance professor Richard Herring -- who taught Taleb when he was a Wharton MBA student -- about events in the Middle East the oil supply investing in options the U.S. economy the dollar health care and of course black swans. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.