Podcasts about jse limited

Episode Summary: Simon Brown dives into the week's biggest financial and economic stories, covering Trump's election win, Nvidia's inclusion in the Dow, rate cuts expected from the FOMC and BOE, and the latest updates on Murray & Roberts, palladium, and gold. Recorded after market open, this episode sheds light on key trades, trends, and the shifting global landscape. Trump's Victory – What's the Trade? Trump's presidential win sparks market reactions, with immediate rallies in the S&P, Nasdaq, and Bitcoin. Simon discusses potential policy impacts, such as tariffs, technology restrictions on China, and implications for commodities, oil, and the South African economy. Notes on the uncertainty of Trump's policies and their potential effects on inflation, EVs, and cryptocurrency. Nvidia in the Dow; Intel Out Nvidia enters the Dow Jones, replacing Intel. Simon critiques the Dow's price-based index system but acknowledges Nvidia's stock performance, fuelled by strong demand from major tech firms. Discussion on how Nvidia's AI hardware demand could shape future stock gains. Nvidia | Weekly chart | Close 06 Nov 24 Murray & Roberts Update Murray & Roberts faces project downscaling from De Beers, revealing challenges tied to low diamond demand. Simon examines the ripple effects across the mining and construction sectors, highlighting how competitor data can provide insights. Palladium & Gold Trends Palladium and gold face downward pressure; Simon explores reasons for the dips, including potential G7 sanctions on Russian palladium. Simon highlights that gold's long-term appeal remains strong, driven by central banks diversifying away from U.S. dollars into gold. Gold | Weekly chart | 07 Nov 24 Bank Rate Cuts – FOMC & BOE Rate cuts anticipated from the FOMC and Bank of England as central banks shift to a rate-cutting cycle. Insights on the potential impact on global markets and currency dynamics. ASML and AI Hardware Market ASML's forward guidance disappoints, affecting semiconductor market outlook. Simon explains the unique position of ASML in the AI chip supply chain and its long-term value as a buy-the-dip candidate. CrowdStrike Resurgence CrowdStrike's recovery following a Microsoft update issue and Delta lawsuit. Simon assesses the stock's growth potential in the cybersecurity space. Listener Takeaway: Markets remain unpredictable but resilient, with global relations, tech policies, and central bank strategies driving shifts. Simon emphasizes informed trading and the long view in these uncertain times. Simon Brown * I hold ungeared positions. All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order Disclaimers: The JSE Direct podcast is independent of JSE Limited and reflects Simon Brown's views, not necessarily those of the JSE. Always consider risks when investing.

Nvidia's Financial Performance Nvidia's Q1 Results: Revenue up 262% year-on-year to $26 billion. Net income up 628% year-on-year to $14.9 billion. Gross margins at 78.9%. Stock Split: 10-for-1 stock split set for 7 June. Market Reaction: Stock traded over $1,000 in the aftermarket. Anglo American and BHP Group BHP's Third Offer: Anglo American rejects BHP's third offer. Deal Concerns: Issues with the price and risk of the deal. Next Steps: Extended deadline for BHP's offer to 29 May. Richemont's* Results Richemont's Position: Holding steady in a tough luxury market. Earnings Growth: Expected around 10% over the next few years. Preferred Stock: Richemont favored over LVMH for its focused luxury product line. Copper Market Copper Boom: Strong performance but cautious outlook due to potential price pullbacks. Investment Options: Local ETNs and offshore ETFs available for copper investment. Structured Products Educational Video: Power Hour session on structured products by Kevin Swartz from Standard Bank. Features: Capital protection and enhanced upside. Pick n Pay's Plan Sales Update: For 52 weeks ending 25 February, bleak results expected. Market Reaction: Stock closed 4.5% higher on news of a plan. South African Economic Indicators CPI Inflation: 5.2% for April. Primary Surplus: Revenue exceeded expenditure (excluding interest). Vehicle Sector Analysis Companies Covered: Combined Motor Holdings (CMH), WeBuyCars, Motus, and Zeda. WeBuyCars showed strong sales growth. Motus and CMH had high dividend yields. Zeda focuses on car rentals and mobility as a service. CMH preferred for its consistent performance and dividend yield. Home Building Sector Analysis Companies Covered: Calgro M3* and Balwin. Balwin struggling with higher-priced units. Calgro M3's flexible pricing strategy favored in current market conditions. [caption id="attachment_42201" align="aligncenter" width="849"] Calgro M3 vs Balwin[/caption] Santova Directors' Selling Director Sales: Recent director sales not seen as a significant concern. Market Impact: Director selling viewed as a neutral action. Disclaimer JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with JSE Limited. Views expressed are solely those of the presenter. * I hold ungeared positions. All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order  

Subscriber to our feed here Sign up for email alerts as a new show goes live Subscribe or review us in iTunes. Simon Shares Libstar listing is proceeding and I am not taking part. I do think the market will love it but Google the private equity sellers (Abraaj) lots bad happening their and the company has declared a R800million pre listing dividend - while raising R1.5billion? Consol has pulled their JSE listing citing "challenging market conditions". Have the market conditions really changed that much in the last few weeks or was the market just not excited by the listing? Auditing - it's complicated The local auditing profession is having a tough time of it with the Auditor General (Thembekile Makwetu) commenting on The Money Show with Bruce Whitfield he said that that the professions reputation was "in the gutter". I wanted to understand what we as investor really can expect from an auditor? Are they to blame for Steinhoff (JSE code: SNH) and other recent collapses or is that beyond their scope? Keith McLachlan, fund manager at Alpha Wealth, studied as an auditor and is now a fund manager so decided to have a short chat with him to get some perspective. The short chat ended up being a long chat and I suspect we missed a number of angles but one thing did stand out for me, the word "material". JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

“Brought to you by Absa ETFs” Simon Shares EOH (JSE code: EOH) under pressure again trading at 5 year lows. The company claims it is because of false allegations published on some news website. CPI in March was 3.8%, a great number but April has both VAT and petrol tax increases so we may have seen a low in CPI for a while. Pallinghurst (JSE code: PGL) issue audited results but they use an auditor not accredited by the JSE so they don't count. Mediclinic (JSE code: MEI) issued a solid trading update and the share is responding (they also got upgraded by Barclays over the weekend). I now expect the usual flurry of emails abut how I am missing out by not investing in healthcare stocks. I am indeed, but I am also missing out on the other 450 stocks I do not own. The stock market is no place for FOMO - it'll kill you. Finding winning SA Inc. stocks. Tax-free and saving for your child. Price leads narrative I heard this on a podcast I listen to, or maybe somebody tweeted it. Hugely important. Those commenting on price action (myself included) are always doing so after the fact and most times trying to find a narrative that fits the price move. As humans we believe in order and we have an expectation that things happen for a reason. Now sure prices move for a reason, but there is every chance we're not privy to the reason. The short answer is that prices go up when there are more buyers than sellers, anything beyond that is trying to fit a narrative to a move. As a trader we frankly don't care why they move. We simple wait for our entry and obey our stops. As an investor price only matters when we're buying as this is all we control. Other than that it is results that matter. So the narrative around price is fun, but it is not very useful. We Get Mail Brian Is there a way I can find the names of ETFs that hold Santam? Reino You state that one can open an TFIA account for anybody from day one of birth, but only with an FSP. This TFIA you speak of will it be just an normal account at the bank like a cheque/savings account or will I be able to open one to trade ETF's through for my children? Subscriber to our feed here Sign up for email alerts as a new show goes live Subscribe or review us in iTunes. JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

“Brought to you by Absa ETFs” Simon Shares SARS announces tax must be paid on Bitcoin profits - why is anybody surprised? Sagarmatha (JSE code: SGT) listing on Friday, if they tick all the boxes. Some saying they should not be allowed to list but this fails to understand the role the JSE plays. They are regulatory gate keepers, not quality of profitability gate keepers. Steinhoff (JSE code: SNH) now under 300c at 226c, well below late 1998 listing - all-time-low and the bad news just continues to drip out. ETFs and the cost of the spread. Living vs guaranteed annuities. Upcoming events; JSE Power Hour: Investing in the best of SA Inc. Liquidity risk Homechoice (JSE code: HIL) keeps on putting out great results and cash generation but has almost zero liquidity (30 trades since 6 March and currently no offers to sell on market with last trade at 4700c and buyers at 1226c! This makes it uninvestable in my world as we'd essentially be buying into a quasi private equity arrangement as exiting would be almost (absolutely) impossible. But they did announce in the latest results they plan to improve liquidity and I'll keep an eye on this. In the excitement of finding a great share we'll often over look the liquidity issue but I remember getting very badly caught in an illiquid stock way back in the day and while I could have held on I panicked and exited at a nasty loss. Liquidity is not just the spread, which is a cost. But also the amount of volume being traded and we also have to remember that liquidity can disappear very quickly. So two things to look for. What size spread are you having to cross to buy. A 1100c / 1500c is 400c and over 30%. I want spreads as tight as possible and certainly not more than 5% at worse. I want average daily value traded to be at least 30x the size I am buying so even if it dries up I can still get out without too much pain. For traders liquidity even more important an I want spreads less than 1% and value traded 100x my trade size. This is because I want to have no impact when buying or selling (or as small as possible because there is never no impact) and I need the liquidity for very quick and efficient exits. Last important point. Liquidity in terms of volume is not an issue for ETFs as the market maker ensures that they will have a bid and offer either side of fair value at all times. So while the ETF may not be trading it has the capacity to trade in larger volumes if required. Subscriber to our feed here Sign up for email alerts as a new show goes live Subscribe or review us in iTunes. JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

“Brought to you by Absa ETFs” Simon Shares I mentioned last week it had been a negative first quarter for the Top40 and it just continues weaker with the current theory being trade wars. Looking at the charts of the main indices it looks ugly and we're now some 15% off the all-time highs of November. A proper correction that may still go lower and my sense is we're close to the end of the sell off. I also asked last week how we could select winning fund managers. The answer I got back was mostly that you can't. A few gave very detailed answers mostly revolving around finding the best managers - but scant details on how we spotted these quality managers. Total return ETFs and CGT. Complicated. Win a book with The Fat Wallet Show. Upcoming events; JSE Power Hour: Investing in the best of SA Inc.  Spot the losers Steinhoff (JSE code: SNH) announces that their property portfolio is only worth half what they thought. Boom there goes another R16billion. I cautioned when this story broke that bad news would be dripping out for a while, and so it continues with the immediate question being hat about their other property assets? Grand Parade (JSE code: GPL) CEO has quit exiting immediately. Ms. Tasneem Karriem joined the company in 2015 and was made CEO last June. This is not good news and the stock is off 4% and trading at 2010 levels. Nampak (JSE code: NPK) is selling their glass business after spending R938m to buy the 50% of the glass business it did not own. It has also spent billions on capital expenditure and now we wait to see what price it sells for. But an absolute disaster for the company and the share is back at 2010 levels. NetCare (JSE code: NTC) is to exiting its UK operations after twelve years of absolute disaster and the share is trading at 2010 levels. Ascendis Health (JSE code: ASC) is trading below its 2013 listing price and just off all-time lows at 938c. You spot the problem? Middling quality companies expanding and the wheels come off. Now sure there are likely many examples of other companies that did not lose their wheels. But as investors we have to make sure we own the right ones. It is also worth noting that as a small investor we can place a core of ETFs (+50%) for diversification and then we need only own 10-12 individual stocks in the 'til death do us part' portfolio. This gives us a huge edge on fund managers who typically need to own 30-50 stocks. We can focus like a laser on quality and spend most of our time finding reasons NOT to invest in a stock. Subscriber to our feed here Sign up for email alerts as a new show goes live Subscribe or review us in iTunes. JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

“Brought to you by Absa ETFs” Simon Shares Back from holiday and with lots of ideas around what you do and don't like for JSE Direct. That said main comment was not to really change except maybe some experts occasionally on broad topics. Markets falling and Top40 is down some 8% for the year so far. End of the world? Not likely. As always, traders know and obey your stops. Investors know your stocks and entry points. Naspers (JSE code: NPN) is under R3k and off some 30% since the November highs and is in large part why our market is under water as it's the largest stock by a mile in the indices. MPC cut repo rate by 0.25%, 4 members voted for the cut and three for no change. No discussion of a 0.5% cut. Interestingly the VAT increase effective on Sunday is expected to temporarily add 0.6% to inflation. Moodys kept us out of junk and improved our outlook to stable from negative. Anchor group (JSE code: ACG) results were bleak but seemingly the bad news is now behind them and the share is responding well, up some 50% since the lows of January and this is a stock pick from Anthony Clark.  How to start an investment club. Save interest on your home loan. I was on The Money Show with Bruce Whitfield earlier this week talking about money and selling everything. The interview is here. Upcoming events; JSE Power Hour: Investing in the best of SA Inc.  Can you pick a winning fund? The latest SPIVA for SA is out and it is bleak reading for active managers in South Africa. Around 75% are beaten by the benchmark over one, three and five years. Benchmark is Domestic Shareholder Weighted (DSW) capped or normal. This means you have a 1 in 4 chance of picking an out preforming fund - very bleak odds. So here's the question, and it is a real question. How does one pick the winning manager going forward? There most definitely will be those who out preform, some even consistently, but how do we spot them in advance? They themselves will tell you that past performance is no guarantee of future performance, and this is 100% true for a bunch of reasons. Changes in personal. A winning manager leaves, is the replacement as good? They had a few lucky calls or managed to avoid some disaster that beset the market. Skill or luck? As they get larger it becomes harder as your investable universe shrinks. I remember a Morningstar report from a few years ago looking at the US market that said the only reliable predictor of future returns was fees. The lower the fee the more likely the fund will out preform. This makes sense, but it is still not a full proof method. I also know a number of people who chart unit trusts with fairly good success. Either just normal technical analysis or relative performance. Of course tax is an issue here. If you have a method for picking winning funds let us know. Subscriber to our feed here Sign up for email alerts as a new show goes live Subscribe or review us in iTunes. JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

“Brought to you by Absa ETFs” 300 shows, I haven't been making a fuss because it just feels old, very old. Add to that almost three years as a live radio show on Classic FM, starting from 8 July 2008. It's almost ten years of a weekly (albeit changing) show. We started life focusing outside the Top40 as the other shows seldom ever did anything in the small and mid cap space - then everybody did. So we have evolved over time. The question is where to next? Another ten years (truthfully that scares me). Send me your ideas on what we should or should not be doing. Subscriber to our feed here Sign up for email alerts as a new show goes live Subscribe or review us in iTunes. JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

“Brought to you by Absa ETFs” Simon Shares 2017 GDP was 1.3%, better than the expected 1% and hopefully means that the treasury 2020 GDP expectation of 2.1% is wildly low. Bleak trading update from Sasfin (JSE code: SFN). But still trading at tangible net asset value (TNAV) levels. MMI drop their dividend in favour of share buy backs and drops cover from 1.5x-1.7x to 2.5x. Considering the dividend yield was some 6% and a good reason to hold this is a major change. Now sure a share buy back is in theory share holder value enhancing and tax efficient but it is also not hard cash in ones hand. Making sense of CGT tax. New Stanlib tech ETF. Upcoming events; ABSA NewFunds ETF seminars (JHB and webcast) JSE Power Hour: Small cap stock picks with Anthony Clark  Fallen angels (devils?) When a share is hit by scandal it can take ages to recovery as investors shy away from the stock. Some like Steinhoff (JSE code: SNH) will never recover due to the seemingly rampant fraud hat happened. Others like EOH may but will stay under 'caution' for a while as will the Resilient (JSE code: RES) stable of stocks. Others such as Capitec* (JSE code: CPI) will also struggle for a while but should shrug it off in time. Tiger Brands (JSE code: TBS) has held up fairly well since the Listeriosis story broke on the weekend and is only back to November levels. But it could get real bad with almost 200 dead people, but markets seem to not be so concerned with these sort of issues. I remember Pioneer (JSE code: PFG) righting the bread fixing claims, eventually paying a R1billion fine and the share rocketed. In part it is the known vs. unknown. PFG struggled until the fine was agreed on, and TBS could well see its share price struggle until some sort of finality is reached - and that cold be years. The concern is perception and some potential investors will stay away while existing holders may head for the hills and this means less buyers for the stock so less/slower upside. Your strategy needs to ask if the scandal is terminal, long-term or merely a passing fad? Then remember if it is time to panic, panic quick. Subscriber to our feed here Sign up for email alerts as a new show goes live Subscribe or review us in iTunes. JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

“Brought to you by Absa ETFs” Simon Shares The new cabinet is of course a compromise, that's the nature of our political system. But the important departments are markedly better hands (SOEs, treasury & mining). New tax-free year kicks off today. R33,000 per year and transfer are now also possible. Up coming events; ABSA NewFunds ETF seminars (DBN, CPT, JHB and webcast) Leverage your investment portfolio Borrowing money to increase your portfolio is something most investors ponder at some point, but two questions come up. How and what are the risks? The theory is easy, over the long-term equity markets do better than the cost of borrowing, but there is more to leverage then just that. So here are some options, with the risks involved. Derivatives such as CFDs; Easy enough. But costs and margin calls are real issues. Keep it small. Home loan Clean and simple if you can afford the repayments remembering that when markets collapse interest rates typically rise. Make sure you can make the repayments with higher interest rates and what if your income drops? Personal loan Banks don't like lending against shares and again can you afford the repayments? Also unsecured loans typically attract higher interest rates meaning the numbers no longer add up. Margin Some brokers will lend against a portfolio with the amounts varying depending on the shares being used as collateral. The risk here is that loan amounts may be adjusted and you may be squeezed out. Personally I have leveraged my portfolio once. In 2008 I maxed out my bond to add to my portfolio. It worked and I slept well enough but I have no plans to do so again. On page 10 of his latest annual letter Warren Buffett writes "This table offers the strongest argument I can muster against ever using borrowed money to own stocks. There is simply no telling how far stocks can fall in a short period. Even if your borrowings are small and your positions aren't immediately threatened by the plunging market, your mind may well become rattled by scary headlines and breathless commentary. And an unsettled mind will not make good decisions."  Subscriber to our feed here Sign up for email alerts as a new show goes live Subscribe or review us in iTunes. JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

“Brought to you by Absa ETFs”  Simon Shares Discovery* (JSE code: DSY) results were top notch and complicated as they always are. I own this stock as the business model really works, but as I have mentioned before the complexity adds risk. Risk I am happy with as most stocks I own have real simple business models. JSE (JSE code: JSE) results show HEPS down 6%. But look at value being traded these days. R25billion a day has become a regular feature, last year average was around R15billion. That equals lots of extra revenue in this financial year. Mining charter back to the drawing board. Good for local miners (of which we have very few). January CPI dropped to 4.4%, interest cuts coming to a prime rate near you? But budget may add to inflation (fuel being the one, not directly but will increase transport costs so food inflation). Up coming events; ABSA NewFunds ETF seminars (DBN, CPT, JHB and webcast) * I Hold ungeared positions #Budget2018 Firstly I think Cyril Ramaphosa may have played it real smart by letting Malusi Gigaba deliver the budget. He can now spend the next year claiming it was not his budget but a Zuma legacy budget. Overall not the train smash expected but still lots of tax increases with R36billion of extra tax. Lots of cuts to spending, R86billion over three years and which has to actually happen. VAT increased to 15% (first change since 1993), with 19 basic food items being zero-rated. Cue everybody suddenly caring about how this will hurt the poor. “Wealthiest 30% of household contribute 85% of VAT revenue”.  "The Old age, disability and care dependency grants will increase on 1 April 2018 from the existing R1600 by R90 to R1690 and by a further R10 to R1700 on 1st October 2018." GDP growth 1.5% in 2018 and rising to 2.1% in 2020. I hope they are very wrong on this. No changes to; Dividend withholding tax (DWT) CGT (40% inclusion rate with first R40k exempt) Tax-free limits (annual or life time) No Nuclear. Retirement funds will be allowed to invest up to 40% outside of SA - 30% "offshore" and another 10% elsewhere in Africa. JSE added 1.25% during the speech, USDZAR 8c and government bonds back at 8%, bond levels last seen three years ago. For our investments. Consumers being taxed, no surprise. But with inflation dropping leading to prime rate likely heading lower I still like the SA Inc. investment thesis. Overall - a good balancing act albeit still a tough budget. But could have been much worse and I think Moodys will not downgrade us on the back of it. Subscriber to our feed here Sign up for email alerts as a new show goes live Subscribe or review us in iTunes. JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Simon Shares Market continues to wait for president Zuma to go. It is taking time but ejecting a leader usually does take time and markets are patient and way more interested in what is happen in the US with inflation data out after I have recorded this podcast. This will likely be the driver for now. When Zuma eventually goes, and he will go, then market can move on that info. It is messy (as politics usually is) but it just a matter of when, not if. Oceana (JSE code: OCE) CEO quits to buy their boats? Resilient, Nepi Rockcastle, ForstressB & Greenbay (JSE codes: RES, NRP, FFB & GRB) continue to flounder after 36One report surfaces. Was it leaked? Does that matter? Resilient have responded via SENS and a conference call and a FAQ - now the market gets to vote. http://resilient.co.za/faq.htm New African property ETF. RA, pension or provident fund by Carina Jooste. Up-coming events JSE Power Hour: Kick off 2018 with ETFs and tax-free investing Avoid the big losers or risk your portfolio A -60% return requires a +150% to beak even. A -80% return requires +400% to break even. Think about that. Saving that last 20% on the downside is worth a 250% smaller return on the upside. — Ari Paul (@AriDavidPaul) February 13, 2018   Trading is really probability and all we have to do as traders is enter on time and then ensure no large losses. If we avoid the large losses those small profits and losses will cancel each other out and the occasional large winner will make all the profits. But we have to cut the large losers or else we go bust. So why do we hang onto our losers? Fear of the pain - we want the thrill of winner because then we're winners. Fear of being wrong - measure by what you control (perfect trade challenge). Fear of the money being gone - trade smaller size. We Get Mail Ruan I am new to CFD trading and I see that with CFDs you qualify for dividends. How does it works? Manoj I am considering investing in the new CoreShares Global Dividend Aristocratic ETF that will launch on 22 February. However, I would obviously want to make sure that I am buying the share at fair value or at a discount. How would one ascertain whether the price is at fair value or a discount? Normally, one can use the P/E ratio to ascertain value. But, in the case of an EFT, this ratio is not available. Additionally, I am nervous about committing to purchase the ETF during the book build that ends on 15 February because I don't know the launch price. It this nervousness justified? Subscriber to our feed here Sign up for email alerts as a new show goes live Subscribe or review us in iTunes. JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Simon Shares Dual CEOs at Investec (JSE codes: INL / INP)? Market sells off and rebounds (a bit) and we're in correction territory (down 10%). The falling property stocks of Resilient, Nepi Rockcastle, ForstressB & Greenbay (JSE codes: RES, NRP, FFB & GRB) continue to trade down at the low levels they hit when Viceroy concerns initially hit the market in early January. Capitec* still under fire from Viceroy and share likely to be subdued for a while. Brimstone (JSE code: BRN) has sold down their stakes in both Tiger Brands (JSE code: TBS) and Life Healthcare (JSE code: LHC). Now what will they do with the R750million cash? Stress free tax year Up-coming events * I hold ungeared positions. Section 12J (S12J) Introduced in 2009 this enables a tax payer to invest into a startup (via the S12J fund, Section 12J Venture Capital Companies (VCC)) and claim it as a deduction on their tax return effectively reducing ones income by the amount invested. An important point is that the investment has to be held for 5 years or income becomes taxable. In theory nice but with some buts; Firstly investing in startups is high risk - of course it is. That said you can invest in lower risk and more mature companies, know what you're investing into. Exiting at the end of five years may be a challenge. How does one sell a stake in a startup? They could list but if not liquidity is going to be a potential problem. Check how the fund plans to manage this and how it has worked in the past. Check the numbers very carefully. I've seen a lot S12J companies working the returns off R550k when you made a R1million investment. The theory is that they include the R450k tax saving into the return. Sure, but where did the R450k go? Know what you're investing into. This is much harder then listed investments as they're startups and we have limited information and hence valuations are hard. Get to grips with all the fees, all of them, in lots of detail. Quality and track record of the VCC managers. Bottom line is that there are good and bad in S12J. Make very sure you know which you're getting into. Lastly, saving tax is never a good enough reason on its own for an investment. Subscriber to our feed here Sign up for email alerts as a new show goes live Subscribe or review us in iTunes. JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Viceroy charges into Capitec* I think we're missing a point with this latest Viceroy report on Capitec. Sure we're proud of the business and if you're a shareholder you've made amazing returns. But we seem to be circling the wagons and shooting the messenger rather then actually discussing the merits of the report. Two important thoughts to ponder. What if Viceroy had published their Steinhoff report before Steinhoff admitted to their fraud, would we have believed them? Simple answer is no and we would have looked stupid when the company admitted the fraud. A fund manager does their research in a company, decides it's a great sock. They buy it and then they go out into the world promoting the stock - talking it up in the media and notes to clients. How is this different from what Viceroy is doing (aside from Viceroy shorting rather then buying)? Here are some others who have been asking questions about Capitec. Benguela Fund Managers wrote to Capitec on 19 January 2018 asking questions. Summit Financial Partners has court action on-going against Capitec. Moyagabo Maake and Rob Rose wrote on the same issues on 19 May 2016. Former FNB CEO Michael Jordaan commented that “It is too early to draw any conclusions".  *I sold half my Capitec shares at R911.00 yesterday. A last point is that with Capitec exposed as the Viceroy target suddenly the other contenders (Resilient stable, Aspen, etc) are now all forgiven. But hold on, when we were unsure who was next the market sold these stocks off aggressively - this tells us something important. It tells us the market is not confident about these stocks and we should take that warning seriously. Here's a Periscope video I did just after the news broke. Here's the Hebalife video. Subscriber to our feed here Sign up for email alerts as a new show goes live Subscribe or review us in iTunes. JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.  

Global Dividend Aristocrats ETF This week Simon chats to Chris Rule from CoreShares on their soon to be listed Global Dividend Aristocrats ETF. It uses dividends as a quality metric rather then searching for yield and much like the MSCI World ETFs we have locally it is concentrated in the US at 53% with Europe making up another 22% but it is light on tech. You can book for the events here. Subscriber to our feed here Sign up for email alerts as a new show goes live Subscribe or review us in iTunes. JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Simon Shares Aspen (JSE code: APN) being vice squeezed. Woolies* (JSE code: WHL) trading update, "impact of a potential re-assessment of the carrying value of the David Jones assets". Watch out for the "goodwill write downs are not cash", true but they were paid for with cash. Shoprite* (JSE code: SHP) update seemed lighter then I had expected, good but not awesome. That said market liked it and stock is up over 6% since the SENS. * I hold ungeared positions. New year resolutions for investors "Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the face" Mike Tyson Stop watching the prices. These are long term investments, check them every so often if you must but certainly not even weekly never mind intra-day. Only own stocks that you have at least three strong reasons for owning and revisit these reasons at least once a year. Sell the dogs in your portfolio, sell them now (I'll wait). Sell anything that is not the best management and be very careful about what qualifies as best management (think Steinhoff). Careful of complexity (again Steinhoff). Miners and other cyclical stocks are never long term investments. ETFs are best and easiest way to create wealth, always have a core of at least 50% ETFs in your portfolio. Your first R33k invested every year must go into a low cost ETF tax-free account. If you not regularly beating the market over a 1 and 3 year period. Stop trying and just buy ETFs. Cost are a big killer. Keep it simple. Keep it diverse. Subscriber to our feed here Sign up for email alerts as a new show goes live Subscribe or review us in iTunes. JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Every year the first JSE Direct of the year is our annual predictions show. Marc Ashton, Keith McLachlan, Small/Midcap fund manager at Alpha Wealth and Just One Lap founder Simon Brown review their predictions from the previous year and make their top three predictions for 2018. They then also make a call on the Top40 and ZAR/US$ for the year. You can find the 2017 edition here. Subscriber to our feed here Sign up for email alerts as a new show goes live Subscribe or review us in iTunes. JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Simon Shares EOH (JSE code: EOH), so the collapse was because of directors margin calls that forced them to sell? This is an epic disaster, if it was my board I would fire them. A share price collapse has real consequences, especially for a company like EOH that uses their shares for acquisitions. Steinhoff (JSE code: SNH) mess continues but an interesting meme occurring in an attempt to make sure the asset managers take no blame. The same happened after African Bank, Enron and other notable corporate collapses. I not saying we should be jailing the asset managers but we should be asking hard questions and having the debate. I am seeing more and more analysis on the fact that SNH was not quality, sure it is in some (but not all) cases after the fact but enough people are speaking out. Yet this low quality stock was valued at around R300billion at its peak and suggesting that it was impossible to tell is an outright lie as proved by many people being short and querying the numbers. Surely as an industry it is important to understand how this happened? Now some managers hunt out low quality as an investment theme, but they are the minority. Pretty much every asset manager will say they buy quality at a good price - but then I ask again, how did this low quality stock end up worth over R300billion? As an industry we are the custodian of peoples retirements, savings and ultimately their dreams - we need to take this seriously and surely, at a minimum, the honest response when we get it spectacularly wrong is to reflect how we get it wrong? Instead I see all sorts of head in sand or finger pointing? Why? Too busy keeping the fees and buying luxury German sedans and Cape Town holiday homes? Likely this is the final JSE Direct for 2017. I have many more ideas but need to take a break. We'll be back with our predictions show in January with Marc Ashton and Keith Mclachlan and as always we'll start by scoring our 2017 predictions (find our 2017 predictions here) Position your portfolio for 2018 is online (video, audio and PDF). Asymmetry of investing The asymmetrical nature of investing is a huge boom to investors. A share we own can go to zero with a 100% loss, but the flip side is that it can up go up multiples of 100%. So even the occasional loser doesn't derail a diverse quality investment portfolio. The two key points, diverse and quality. If you have only one stock you're at massive risk and if you have a basket of dogs then you're still in serious trouble. But a collection of quality stocks can survive the occasional blow out as they others run and we only needs a few real winners to make it all work and market beating. Now in an ideal world we'll never see a 100% blow out because when it's time to panic we'll panic quick, right? A last word on the asymmetry of trading (as apposed to investing). We have no real floor on loses as we also have no real floor on gains. So it is not asymmetrical and so we have to make it so by being ruthless with stop losses. I have long said my trading success is due to my always taking the stop immediately no questions asked. JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Simon Shares More downgrades as S&P Globals makes our local debt junk as well to go with Fitch. Moody's gave us 90 days which takes us to just after the February budget and if they drop us then we full on 100% junk, AKA Brazilian. The Rand is powering ahead trading in the R13.60's against US$. My call for a stronger Rand remains in force. Slowly but surely. The latest Long4Life* (JSE code: L4L) deal is a perfect fit with the Gauteng based contract bottler they are also buying. I like the share at these lower prices. Yearend portfolio clean up is coming up and the one I eyeing is Calgro M3* (JSE code: CGR) in my second tier portfolio. I sold most back when Nene was fired keeping a few and they have pretty much halved since then. Checking my notes from when I sold my plan was to monitor and sell if I saw weakness. Well we got the weakness, but I didn't sell. Now I could hold them on a prayer - but I'd rather just bin them. I've been writing my yearend columns for FinWeek looking into 2018 events and stocks. They'll be out Next Friday and I'll share some in the podcast in the weeks ahead. Sygnia Itrix 4th Industrial Revolution Global Equity ETF (SYG4IR) lists next week. ETF winners for the year, what's RHO? Up coming events; Position your portfolio for 2018 * I hold ungeared positions. Trading buddies Trading is often very lonely, sure there's the people on Twitter or WhatsApp group you chat to - but mostly that's wild and wooly and not really any support. Your friends and partner are likely not much help either as frankly they don't truly get what you do or the pressures involved. So we need a trading buddy, not just to keep us sane - but also to keep us honest and help us when we need it. we can use them to vent as required but even more importantly we give them access to our trading account for two reasons. Firstly they check our trades and make sure we're trading as we say we do. Keeping to the system and staying honest. Secondly they can get us into or out of trades when we're not able to. The real hard part is finding this trading buddy. Check around your circle of friends, try Twitter and other forums and be very selective when choosing. We Get Mail Anne Why when I look at the daily chart of an ETF does it jump all over the place? Subscriber to our feed here Sign up for email alerts as a new show goes live Subscribe or review us in iTunes. JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Simon Shares Zimbabwean coup, or not coup or whatever. People are all asking me what's the best investment thesis here. There isn't one, a coup is not great for an economy. A democratic functioning state is what is good for investments. My comments last week about large M&A activity seldom working promoted a number of responses about successful deals - but all were private (not listed). This makes sense, no hype, no over paying. Just good old fashioned due diligence and right price paid. Consolidated Infrastructure Group (JSE code; CIL) update and delayed results is a massive mess. Third update and this one says we simple don't know how bad things will be nor if previous results are sound. Major management failure both to communicate to market and to manage the company. Spar (JSE code: SPP) results show revenue up 5.4% while operating costs increased 19.2%. Not good at all. Switzerland seems to be coming right, Ireland not and South Africa is tough. Netcare (JSE code: NTC) trading update is all about their UK BMI Healthcare business and it's all bad news. Another large offshore deal gone all frot? South African bond issue on Tuesday at largest ever (R3,3bn vs. R2.75bn) and over subscribed 3x. But at 0.75% higher rates and maturing between 2031 and 2048. Compound that cost to our economy. Survey results are out. Up coming events; Position your portfolio for 2018 * I hold ungeared positions. When it's time to panic My grandfather introduced me to markets in the 80's and one of his key sayings was "when it's time to panic, panic fast". When bad news breaks (yes we looking at you CIL) and a stock crashes the immediate response is that it's too late to do anything. Maybe, but often times the will be continued weakness because news and response is not instant. It takes time for everybody to respond. The bigger issue is if the news markedly changes a view and saying the damage is done is not an answer. This is especially true if the issue is management related and also in cyclical and small/mid cap stocks. Importantly I am not talking about panicking when the market crashes. This is about exiting a stock forever and moving on until it proves its bonafides again. Selling crashes is nice in theory but never works. Stocks are different because they can go to zero worse case or spend years, decades, forever languishing around little or nothing. Subscriber to our feed here Sign up for email alerts as a new show goes live Subscribe or review us in iTunes. JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Simon Shares More highs locally and global for markets. And of course that makes everybody worried and certain we're about to crash. Well we will most definitely crash, just nobody (and I mean nobody) knows when. So as always ignore the doomsayers. Tencent buys a 10% stake in Snap, a clever deal as it gets them into the US market. It also means we now all own some Snap via any Top40 ETF we have with Naspers (JSE code: NPN) in it. Purple Group (JSE code: PPE) results were rough. Ignoring a write down of Real People, GT24/7 made a sliver of profit, Emperor is losing AUM hand over fist while EasyEquities continues loses. With almost 60k users the burn rate for EasyEquities is about R3m a month with revenue of some R800k a month. That's a large gap that needs a lot more customers to close. They do however have the money from Sanlam that tides them over for the next 3 years while they try turn the low cost idea into profits. Steinhoff (JSE code SNH) is back in the bad news on reports that it hid US1billion worth of related party deals. This company has a lot of smoke around for an innocent company. Sasfin (JSE code: SFN) has a price-to-book (PB) of around 1x and that is always a buy signal for the stock. Ungeared and hold until PB is 1.4x or higher, about 12-18 months typically. You'll get NAV uplift, dividends and the price gain above NAV. I have sold my Tongaat (JSE code: TON) shares. The latest update showed that even with returning rain we're not seeing the profits from sugar, so my thesis was right (rain) but with no profit to show for it I bailed. Help us help you, do our six minute user survey. 4 New ETFs from Sygnia. Up coming events; High probability derivative trading Position your portfolio for 2018 * I hold ungeared positions. Too big to work (AKA big deals suck) Brait (JSE code: BAT) has valued their UK New Look business at zero. They paid R37billion just under two years ago. Woolies* (JSE code: WHL) and Famous Brands* (JSE code: FBR) both struggling with big deals and now Firstrand (JSE code: FSR) spending some R20billion buying Aldermore. How many big deal really work? Sure they work eventually, but at what cost and never as management promised. I suspect it has two key problem. Firstly they buyer typically over pays in their eagerness to get the assets, this is especially true when the target is listed and the premium has to be agreed on by shareholders and is hence usually 20%-30% or more. Secondly merging two business is never easy. Some easy wins such as centralised costs like HR can be lowered, but actually extracting value a lot harder. The third of course is the ego of management. Who wants to be boss of some regional business when you can be a global titan over seeing a vast network of losses? My memory says very few ever work very well. Have you got some examples of large deals working? SABMiller worked, BHPBilliton* (JSE code: BIL) worked. Any others? We Get Mail Peter I see that some of the Satrix products are offered as either ETFs or unit trusts. What would compel me to purchase via a unit trust rather than an ETF for something basically the same? Subscriber to our feed here Sign up for email alerts as a new show goes live Subscribe or review us in iTunes. JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Simon Shares Famous Brands* (JSE code: FBR) results were nasty. Local was weak but the real issue is the UK GBP purchase that cost a bunch and is not performing. Long4Life (JSE code: L4L) is now 510c as I record. Nice price and a lesson that we must never chase stocks. Sasfin (JSE code: SFN) has a price-to-book (PB) of around 1x and that is always a buy signal for the stock. Ungeared and hold until PB is 1.4x or higher, about 12-18 months typically. You'll get NAV uplift, dividends and the price gain above NAV. Clicks (JSE code: CLS) are a master class in how a set of results should look if the company really is firing on all cylinders. Revenue +10.9%, HEPS +14.5% and the dividend +18.4%. The Traders Life three part series with IG is online. Up coming events; High probability derivative trading Position your portfolio for 2018 * I hold ungeared positions. How important is your trading system? Your trading system is one of the least important parts of a successful traders arsenal. Yes you need one and yes it need to be profitable. But it is not what is going to make you the money. That will be your discipline, your money and risk management - this is your trading edge. So stop trying to find the best system in the world. Stop tweaking your system every tine it loses some money and stop jumping from one system to another. Find a system that makes money, test it and learn to trust it. Become the absolute pro at the system and then trade it; unemotionally and with discipline. We Get Mail Ron I want to buy Tech stocks (eg Alphabet, Amazon, FB, Apple, Tesla ...) and get a little Biotech exposure using an off-shore account. I'd prefer an ETF than individual stocks. ========= Subscriber to our feed here Sign up for email alerts as a new show goes live Subscribe or review us in iTunes. JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Books Trading Trading in the Zone – Mark Douglas (detailed review) Trend Following – Michael Covel (detail review) Reminiscences of a Stock Operator – Edwin Lefevre Investing One up on Wall Street – Peter Lynch (detailed review) Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits – Phil Fisher (detailed review) Effective Investor – Franco Busetti Intelligent Investor – Benjamin Graham 123 Download the audio file here Subscriber to our feed here Sign up for email alerts as a new show goes live Subscribe or review us in iTunes. JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Simon Shares Local markets have been making new all time highs and right now the sellers look shell shocked and unable to exert any real downside pressure. Taste (JSE code: TAS) results were just a shocker and they need money fast, real fast. Pick 'n Pay (JSE code: PIK) results were uninspiring. Like for like sales after inflation went down as they continue to lose market share and operating margins remains very weak at 1.6%. Calgro M3* (JSE code: CGR) not bad is we strip out the funnies. Memorial parks coming along and Western Cape drought hurting a bit as is the weak economy. I reduced exposure at the the time of three finance ministers in 4 days in December 2015 and am not upping my exposure for now. Long4Life (JSE code: L4L) at 550c starts to get interesting and offers an important lesson - careful of chasing hype. Up coming events; FX – Wealth Creator or Poverty stamp The Traders Life: The tools High probability derivative trading Position your portfolio for 2018 * I hold ungeared positions. Managing the dreaded drawdown Every trader will at some point have a drawdown when a string of losing trades sees your once lovely equity curve head south. Or worse an ugly equity curve get even worse. Typically the gut response is to either; change system, tweak the system, reduce trade size or just panic. None are a good idea. August saw me have a horror week with four large loses (within system expectations, but not expected all at once). My immediate response was some Amazon shopping but then I got into my drawdown mode. First I check every trade to make sure I did everything right. Now every trade I do is marked for a 'perfect trade' but I double check. I also go back to my initial system checking and see if this was expected. I use the Mark Douglas method of system testing and this process is very important. Firstly it gives an expectation of what the system can deliver, tests if it works and also shows what sort of drawdown you can expect. The point is drawdowns are a part of trading and veery trader will have many of them over a life time of trading. We need to expect them, manage them and not have a knee jerk response to them. I was interviewed by Duncan McLeod from TechCentral on local and offshore tech stock, interview below or here. Content hosted by iono.fm Subscriber to our feed here Sign up for email alerts as a new show goes live Subscribe or review us in iTunes. JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Simon Shares Just two weeks ago I was moaning about a sideways market going nowhere, now we have eight green days in a row with local markets joining much of the world at all time highs. Famous Brands* (JSE code: FBR) trading update was bleak, very bleak. Interest costs we expected, they suggest SA doing well enough. But UK losing money after paying some R2billion is a shocker. PPC (JSE code: PPC) has doubled in price, remember I said wait for doubling and then buy. So heres your entry.  Santova* (JSE code: SNV) comes out with very good trading update considering ZAR strength during the period. List of all listed ETFs ranked by their TERs. A great list from Kristia. Up coming events; FX – Wealth Creator or Poverty stamp The Traders Life: The tools  * I hold ungeared positions. When to short shares A recent flurry of emails from people shorting stocks and getting burnt. In particular shorts on Capitec*, Naspers and Kumba. A side note that emailing me is a form of confirmation bias as the emailers wanted me to essentially confirm they were right and the market was wrong. First rule is don't. Second rule is don't short on fundamentals. Short on price action, if you want coupled with fundamentals. But don't just decide a share is expensive so now it must go down, it can get way more expensive. Subscriber to our feed here Sign up for email alerts as a new show goes live Subscribe or review us in iTunes. JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Simon Shares Market going nowhere, I take a week off and it literally goes sideways in tight range. Capitec* (JSE code: CPI) results saw HEPS up 17% (trading statement said 15%-18%, they always come in near top of range). Lots of wow numbers; 9.2million active clients and cost-to-income ratio at 36%. The disputed arrears coverage ratio is back at 237% after concerns about it decreasing a year ago. Discovery* (JSE code: DSY) results solid with lost of spending on the future. Still my favourite share I own in terms of potential and I happy to add below R156. Richemont* (JSE code: CFR) trading update shows they turned the corner re nasty watch sales that resulted in them having to buy back watches. Stock trading up at all time highs above R120. My buy price is R118. Santova* (JSE code: SNV) nice clean deal buying out a 25% silent partner from their Australian operation at decent price. Gives immediate extra AUD earnings. New Ashburton World ETF Up coming events; The Traders Life: The money with IG and Simon Brown Buying when the Markets are at all-time Highs  FX vs Shares – Wealth Creator or Poverty stamp * I hold ungeared positions. Trading time frames The first question no new trader asks is which time frame should they be trading in. Typically one starts looking at daily charts but quickly drops to shorter time frames because we want the rush that comes from each trade and we get more at shorter time frames. Yes trades happen in all time frames, but it's our ability to manage and profit from them. But truthfully can most people manage an intra-day time frame unless this is all they do? Markets is pretty much my life and an hourly chart is still tricky for me as I miss some entries (stops are automated so that no problem). Shorter time frames; Are also more noisy, Require quicker responses Means shorter trade duration, smaller profit per trade but same costs Forget about getting a rush from trading and find a time frame that works for you and potentially use multiple time frames. Start with a weekly chart, if you get a tigger wait for it to confirm in the daily chart. Now if you not using technicals but more about price then tie frames become less of an issue, but you're then having to watch the market consistently hence no other day job or trade at night. We Get Mail I started buying ETF's about 4 months ago. I purchase through on line trading. It appears however that prices are manipulated to keep them within a band. I have been seeing signs of this across all ETF's – some more than others. Last traded prices are impossible to buy at due to the artificial bid volume/price. What makes it even more obvious is often the identical bid / offer volumes. Subscriber to our feed here Sign up for email alerts as a new show goes live Subscribe or review us in iTunes. JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Simon Shares Metrofile* (JSE code: MFL) results very modest as they reduce dividend for H2 but keep it flat for the year. Clover (JSE code: CLR) results were ouch, very ouch. They call it a perfect storm, I call it over priced branded milk. Spur (JSE code: SUR) were also very bleak and give us some insights to the Famous Brands* (JSE code: FBR) due at the end of October. Now Famous Brands has a way better business model and management, but expect very tough results from them. JPMorgan's Dimon said that Bitcoin 'is a fraud'. Right or wrong the price collapsed again and expect a lot more attacks from 'traditional' financial institutions, attacks that Bitcoin fans will say prices its value as it shakes up the establishment. No to tax, yes to fees? Up coming events; The Traders Life: The money with IG and Simon Brown FX vs Shares - Wealth Creator or Poverty stamp  * I hold ungeared positions. Everything is at all time highs Why does everybody hate highs? If we're an investor highs are a great thing as it means we're richer then before? I once had a trading system that one of the rules buy new twelve month highs, and it made money. We get mail Leonard I was a client of Saambou back in the day, and I'm concerned about possible risks of holding everything through a single financial institution. Would there be any risk associated with putting all my eggs into one basket? Hoosain Just read about Patrice Motsepe's ARC investments going public on the JSE yesterday. The headline on moneyweb says "Patrice Motsepe lists his Berkshire Hathaway". Alarms bells rang off in my head when I saw this. Your thoughts about the company and its potential to be South Africa's Berkshire Hathaway? Chris Could u please explain the implications of the STAR spinoff? I currently hold Steinhoff and Shoprite. If I want to hold on to my exposure to PEP, ACKERMANS etc., do I now need to go and buy STAR? Or does Steinhoff still own STAR and thus I can just hold on to my Steinhoff shares? Subscriber to our feed here Sign up for email alerts as a new show goes live Subscribe or review us in iTunes. JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Simon Shares Capitec* (JSE code: CPI) trading update is looking for HEPS to be 15%-18% higher. Modest for a 27x PE stock with consensus being 18.7%. The DB x-tracker ETFs will see their name change on Monday 18 September as Sygnia completes the purchase process. The new name is Sygnia Itrix and the ETF codes will see DBX replaced with SYG.Rhodes Food Group (JSE code: RFG) got hit after a trading update that saw decent local operations but declining offshore sales further hurt by the stronger Rand. ARC Investments (JSE code: ARC) lists today (7 September) after an over subscribed placement at 850c. They have an interesting set of assets, mostly unlisted with net asset value (NAV) also 850c and an investment holding company should trade at a 10%-20% discount to the NAV. So we should see some weakness which give an entry to those wanting stock. Star lists later this month and after the Shoprite* (JSE code: SHP) vote on Tuesday to buy the shares back from previous CEO they now have total control of SHP. Reading the star listing docs, they are most certainly coming for my SHP shares and I am not a keen seller. A Periscope viewer asked my views on the Easy Equities launch of US listed stocks. Short answer is I like but with some cautions such as cost and paper work to transfer money and what to buy. Up coming events; JSE Power Hour: Disruptions or Innovation The Traders Life: The money with IG and Simon Brown * I hold ungeared positions. Ignore the fear Remember Greece? I don't mean as a holiday destination, I mean as the country who's debt levels caused years of panic that were going to crash the global economy? This peaked in 2015 with elections in January 2015 and then in July a referendum saw voters reject the European Union proposed bailout leading to new elections in September 2015. Yet two years later Greece is pretty much never spoken of? The debt had not magically disappeared, rather it is being 'managed'. The struggle remains real for ordinary Greeks and no doubt the politicians continue to do whatever politicians do. The point is the word is full of one crisis or another and the media will always make the crisis seem way bigger then it often is. If it bleeds it leads is the old newspaper adage and a financial crisis in an EU economy is always going to lead with plenty hysteria thrown in for good measure.The truth is the Greek debt crisis never really mattered to the rest of the world and I did a JSE Power Hour on this in June 2012. Now don't get me wrong, we will have another global financial crisis - of that I am certain. But what will trigger it and when it will happen I have no idea. So as long-term investors and short-term traders we ignore all the hype and fear mongering. We focus on what we know and can control. For investors that means buying quality at prices we like. For traders - trade the price and ignore the noise. Subscriber to our feed here Sign up for email alerts as a new show goes live Subscribe or review us in iTunes. JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Simon Shares Telkom (JSE code: TKG) has confirmed government wants to sell their 39% stake in the company, likely to bail out SAA. Classic rookie error, exiting good trade to keep bad trades. Amazingly good results from Home Choice (JSE code: HIL), but with zero liquidity in the stock the results are merely of passing interest. Decent results form AdaptIT (JSE code: ADI) albeit some margin pressure in the education and financial services segments albeit with the latter doing decent revenue growth. All considered around 900c price is a fair value. I mentioned last week I was digging more into ADvTech* (JSE code: ADH) to determine a price to buy at and have now started buying with my fair value (so price below which I am happy to buy) being 1970c. The Harvey storm has hit land again, this time at Louisiana and this is just next to Lake Charles where Sasol* (JSE code: SOL) is building their Ethan Cracker plant. So far Lake Charles has been spared the worst of the wind and rain but we have a few more days of rain to come. The Sasol project will almost certainly be delayed by some amount (and hence costs) but as yet management have said nothing. Understanding the Krugerrand Custodial Certificate. Up coming events; The Traders Life: The process with IG and Simon Brown JSE Power Hour: Disruptions or Innovation * I hold ungeared positions. Where's your stop loss? The #ALSI gives us a free lesson in stop hunting pic.twitter.com/EkqvebhUkV — Trader1137 (@Trader1137) August 30, 2017   As a trader your stop loss is your most important decision as it protects your capital from destruction. Sure it is hard emotionally cutting losing trades, but that's a lot harder then going bust - so every good trader is ruthless with their stop losses. But where to place it is hard. Point is - don't be obvious when placing a stop loss. Don't make it too tight or place it where everybody else would place their stops. Other traders will go stop loss hunting and will shake you out. If you find yourself being stopped out only for the trade to reverse and go in your initial direction - widen your stops. That said careful your stop loss isn't so wide that your system starts to lose money. Yes stop losses are hard. Hard emotionally as we're losing money and even harder to know where to place them. But without a stop loss process as part of every trading system you will go bust. So spend the time working on your stop loss placement within your trading system. We Get Mail Hawu I kindly would like to know, what is meant by a company when its raising funds on book-build? Subscriber to our feed here Sign up for email alerts as a new show goes live Subscribe or review us in iTunes. JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Simon Shares Shoprite* (JSE code: SHP) results were stellar, the best food retailer anywhere on this planet? Operating margin from 5.6% last year to 5.76% in the 2017 (more than double that of Pick n Pay), market share growing, rest of Africa rocking (albeit some currency pains). ADvTech (JSE code: ADH) results show tertiary booming but schools under a bit of pressure that they partly blame on "rise in the number of families emigrating"? I like the stock, am doing some more digging and working out my preferred pricing. Will update my portfolio page as and when, certainly cheaper and better positioned than Curro (JSE code: COH). Implats (JSE code: IMP) wins the award for stupidest thing in a SENS announcement "The major reason for the decline in HEPS from the comparative period is that the prior year gross profit declined to a gross loss in the current year." BHP Billiton* (JSE code: BIL) results show them back on track. Reducing debt, paying dividends and not going crazy on capex. I have been holding for ages but not buying, I have updated the buy price and it comes out at R168, so a long way off.  Naspers (JSE code: NPN) hit R3,001.00 and it still valued at less than its passive stake in TenCent. The video from Trader Petri is online - things he does well as a trader. Understanding the Satrix MSCI World ETF. Up coming events; The Traders Life: The process with IG and Simon Brown JSE Power Hour: Disruptions or Innovation * I hold ungeared positions. Scam alert Recently I have been getting a ton of scam phone calls around trading and investing that follow two themes. The first is offering me some training and software that will make me a fortune, usually 40% in six months! It won't. If it was so awesome why's this person stuck in a call center cold calling me? The second is offering to get me on the ground floor on some stock (such as Space-X, Uber or the like) or alternatively they've got a hot tip for me. If it all so hot, why are they cold calling me? Surely people would be queuing up to buy? These are scams, disconnect the call and if you can block the number and warn your friends. Certainly do not start sending money offshore to some random voice on the phone regardless who they say they are. Nor pay top money for software and training when much is free or cheap on the internet. We Get Mail Babsy What is the importance of having ETF in ones portfolio? why cant one just invest in shares only as this ETF also generate their income in shares. In a nutshell what is the importance of ETF in ones portfolio? Steven I invested in the DBXWD last week, me and a partner got into a discussion about what happens to my portfolio if I die? Subscriber to our feed here Subscribe or review us in iTunes. JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Simon Shares Curro (JSE code: COH) were mixed but mostly good. The lower priced schools struggled and the tertiary are still getting off the ground and will be unbundled in September. But for a stock on a PE of some 100x HEPS growth of just 22% is way to low. Anchor Group (JSE code: ACG) results were as expected from their trading update - a massive disappointment. Last March I was expecting HEPS of 100c for this financial year and they just did 22c (down 39%) and will be hard pressed to do 50c HEPS for the year. That said, 50c HEPS puts them on a forward PE of around 10x, not bad but frankly Coronation (JSE code: CML) with a dividend yield of some 6.5% looking much more attractive. PPC (JSE code: PPC) woes continue as the share trades at 1999 levels. Yip zero price profit this century if you've been holding the stock. This after a high of 5300c in 2007. So now everybody wants to buy, but there's no rush (if at all). Wait for a doubling of price before considering an entry. Famous Brands* (JSE code: FBR) update shows very modest like for like growth but this statement worries me "To date, certain of the new UK stores opened since acquisition have not met sales projections.". Up coming events; JSE Power Hour: Getting trading right with Trader Petri The Traders Life: The process with IG and Simon Brown JSE Power Hour: Disruptions or Innovation * I hold ungeared positions. Back to Bitcoin I did a Bitcoin (code: BTC) podcast in March and nobody cared . Another in June and interest was still modest. Now it booming and everybody wants in? Is it too late? No idea. Is it going to crash? No idea. How high will it go? No idea. What is Bitcoin? It is not a currency, it is if anything a commodity. It pays no dividends and can buy things but remember sea shells have been used to buy things in the past. For those wanting to buy Bitcoin, Magda Wierzycka )CEO of Sygnia) recommends using Luno locally (albeit it internal so only market within SA and hence price not always reflective of other exchange prices). Or use an offshore exchange (using your annual R10million offshore allowance) via Kraken or Xapo. Here's a trick, there is no central exchange for Bitcoin, so what's the price? Also no regulator and we have seen exchanges crash, be hacked and go bust. So this is fairly wild west out there. Subscriber to our feed here Sign up for email alerts as a new show goes live Subscribe or review us in iTunes. JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Simon Shares New all time highs locally for the All Share Index, Indi25, Top40 and ALSI futures as latter traded one contract at 50,000 for first time ever. I love all time highs. Upcoming events; JSE Power Hour: Getting trading right with Trader Petri JSE Power Hour: Disruptions or Innovation We Get Mail Johan If everyone is making money from trading, who are they making the money off? The answer is of course that everyone can't be winners and there has to be losers. The ones that lose more than they win, give up and stop trading. Therefore you need a constant flow of newbies that will fail so that the winners can keep winning. Does this not seem like some sort of great pyramid-type scheme? Or is the general justification “survival of the fittest”? Your take on this? Wouter One question from a new investor. Would you stick to your current ETFs you have in your tax-free savings account or add new ones as markets change. Regards from China. Eric I have R50 000 that I want to passively invest in Satrix for 3-5yrs and I was thinking about taking 7 Satrix products and divide the money equally. Tim Could we not just be another Japan, everyone says the market may go up but Japan is the elephant in the room? Or am I mistaken? Subscriber to our feed here Sign up for email alerts as a new show goes live Subscribe or review us in iTunes. JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Simon Shares British American Tobacco (JSE code: BTI) is in trouble on two fronts. Firstly the US is looking at requiring nicotine be reduce to non-addictive levels. Then the UK is investigating the company bribing African governments to get favourable smoking legislation. I suspect many had though the legal issues for these companies were behind them. Bank results are showing surprisingly low dab debt levels. Barclays Africa (JSE code: BGA) at 0.96% and Nedbank (JSE code: NED) at 0.47%. Good news, but cost-to-income levels remain high with Nedbank blowing it out at 59.3% and Barclays 56.4%. These high cost bases are a problem and are not coming down. MTN (JSE code: MTN) update was bleak. It finally gave us real numbers and shows it is down by about two thirds compared to 2015, which is pre-Nigeria. Local markets toying with all-time highs but unable to break higher. Understanding ETF TER ratios. Upcoming events; JSE Power Hour: Getting trading right with Trader Petri Investor or trader? Or both? I got an email about how a long-term investor had a 15% trailing stop loss on their share and asked it this was the right stop loss level. The question was moot as the writer seems confused as to whether they were a trader or an investor. The easiest measure is how long you plan to hold a position. If less than three years than you are a trader as SARS says holding less than three years is income and hence taxed at your marginal rate. So derivative or not short-term under three years is trading. But there is another issue which is technical vs. fundamental. Traders generally use charts as price action trumps all else and plays out in the short term regardless of valuations. Long-term investors use fundamentals as they will play out over the long term. So a long-term investor would have a stop loss but it would be fundamental based, not price based. Lastly, you can be both. Certainly I am both short-term trader and a long-term investor. Importantly use separate accounts, even if with the same broker. JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Simon Shares PPC (JSE code: PPC) announced departure of CEO and share tanks. This company in serious board room trouble. Kumba (JSE code: KIO) results were decent, dividend was wild (ahead of actual HEPS) as they compensated shareholders for missed dividends! This is odd and asks the question about dividends going forward. Concern is average cash break-even price of US$43/tonne was up from US$29/tonne in the previous period. Long4Life (JSE code: L4L) runs to 838c then announces confirmed deal for Holdsport (JSE code: HSP) at slightly higher ratio (was 10.44 L4L for every HSP, now 12.1) and share down to 600c. Starts to get interesting another 50c lower. Upcoming events Moneyweb Expo – Structure your pay cheque The market vs. the economy On Tuesday the Top40 was trading at the high for 2017 (and again on Wednesday) and when I tweeted the fact the replies were mostly about how the market is wrong. Look at unemployment, Guptas, recession, down grades etc. they all shouted. None of the is wrong, but is it relevant? Firstly we've had a three year +/-30% correction in time. But as importantly the market is not the local economy with listed companies earning a lot beyond our boarders and mostly the better stocks in the index as loser are tossed out. Lastly and perhaps most importantly the market looks head 12-18 months. With rates coming down, Zuma out in the new year and his preferred choice struggling 2018 looks way better for South Africa than many a recent year. So if we're looking to the seed half of 2018 then the future s brighter, and sure this may be relative, but brighter surely means higher for the market? Subscribe or review us in iTunes. JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Simon Shares Finally, 5 weeks after moving my FTTH has been installed so I am going to Periscope each recording as it happens which is typically Wednesday afternoon. https://www.pscp.tv/SimonPB/ Retail trading updates coming in and as expected they are mostly bleak, but we are seeing the impact of the rains mostly returning. Netflix is a monster, over 100million customers world wide. Long4Life is buying; Holdsport and Sorbet. Steinhoff (JSE code: SNH) raises R12bn (Euro800million) in Europe with a 7.5 year bond at 1.875%. Upcoming events JSE Power Hour: Recession proof stocks Moneyweb Expo - Structure your pay cheque  Is the fees battle over? Last week I spoke about the price war in ETFs. But do fees still matter? For the passive market fees are surely at point where they almost don't matter. Sure they can go lower but we're talking most local ETFs now nicely below a 0.5% TER ratio while the offshore are slightly above 0.5%. Don't get me wrong, every 0.1% makes a difference, but on R100k that's R100. Not nothing but not the difference between retiring or not. I still look at VOO with a TER of 0.04%, but we're never going to get that low (they're a mutual company and owned by the fund holders and have massive scale we'll never see in South Africa). Admin fees, once a silent killer have also disappeared at some brokers where a simple ETF or tax-free account has zero admin fees. Transaction fees are still a bug bear at some places with minimums that mean you need to trade some R18k-R30k per hit to get the effective rate. We Get Mail Georges I would like to find out how/when do ETFs collect their TER? Is this set off against distributions quarterly or “baked” into the price? Helen What will happen to my preference shares with Basil III? Will I loose them? JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Simon Shares Finally, 5 weeks after moving my FTTH has been installed so I am going to Periscope each recording as it happens which is typically Wednesday afternoon.  Calgro M3* (JSE code: CGR) update on their missing SENS. Feeling is that the impact is marginal and will hardly hurt earnings? Time will tell, I still don't like asymmetrical information. Oakbay (JSE code: ORL) is delisting from the JSE as they can't find a sponsor. No surprises but real bad for any shareholders. Sygnia (JSE code: SYG) announced the details of the rights offer and it is at 900c but only for R160million as apposed to the expected R320million. So much less dilution, albeit also much lower price. Pubic Protector not fighting the SARB objection of her attempt to change its mandate. New emerging market ETF from Satrix Upcoming events JSE Power Hour: Recession proof stocks * I hold ungeared positions. ETF price wars With the new issue of ETFs from Satrix and Sygnia taking over the DB x-trackers (to be branded Itrax) we're seeing some price wars forming. Very good news for consumers, but some buts. Read the small print. Don't rush. Much of this is targeted TERs and the incumbents may also adjust their TERs downwards. Switching into a same but cheaper ETF may not be economical Tax, costs and spread adds up. My strategy will be where I buy an ETF that now has a cheaper alternative I will start buying the cheaper immediately. Switching will take longer. We Get Mail Everybody is asking Are you buying the new emerging market ETF from Satrix? JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Simon Shares New Satrix ETFs; S&P500, MSCI World Index and MSCI Emerging Markets Investable Markets and at low 'target' TERs. A price war in the local ETF offerings? Wednesday was exactly ten years since the UK had an interest rate increase from the BoE? Calgro M3* (JSE code: CGR) issued a press release stating that they're cutting back on 'wet work' in the Western Cape due to drought. But no SENS? ANC policy conference has proposed that the SA Reserve Bank be nationalised. Aside from my (so far failed) attempt to buy shares in it, so what? Shareholders have no say in the running of the bank and almost every other central bank is state owned. What percentage ETFs in a portfolio? Upcoming events JSE Power Hour: Recession proof stocks * I hold ungeared positions. New listings in hot sectors We've seen two small stock listing recently that were trying to attach themselves onto the hype of a hot sector. Gold Brands in the quick service restaurant (QSR) space and Pembury in education. Both have failed and both teach us an important lesson in the new stars that are worth investing in. It is about quality, it always is. Sure a raging bull market will lift all stocks as we saw way back in 2005-8 listing boom. But in a more subdued market, a more skeptical market, quality matters. Cash matters, brands matter, management matters. It all really matters. It is not enough to just be in the right space. Subscriber to our feed here Sign up for email alerts as a new show goes live Subscribe or review us in iTunes. JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Simon Shares Taste (JSE code: TAS) couldn't get the public to take up all of the 120million new shares, but a new shareholder of note did and it good news for the company. Naspers (JSE code: NPN) results talk of core HEPS. Now sure they tell us what 'core' means but as always I very skeptical of anything that is not IFRS. Wescoal (JSE code: WSL) results in part really hit it out the park with production up 82% while IFRS HEPS was 11.3c vs. 27.1c (company HEPS excluding BEE deal costs). Lafferty Group's 2017 Global Bank Quality Benchmarking study is out, it ranks 100 major quoted banks across 32 countries and Capitec* (JSE code: CPI) comes out tops as the only bank to get five stars. Upcoming eents JSE Power Hour: Recession proof stocks * I hold ungeared positions. The problem with buy and hold is not the math, which proves it works. The problem is with the evidence, which proves investors can't do it. — Bob Brinker (@BobBrinker) June 27, 2017   How long is long-term? A recent question asked about some investing ideas and concluded with the comment that "I'm looking at long-term say 5 years.". Wow. For me five years is short term while long-term is decades (yes with a 's' at the end). I am not falling into the trap of saying things are faster these days with always on smart phones with taxis at our beck an call and online derivative trading. But the tweet below highlights that while we know long-term buy and hold works excellently, especially with ETFs, the average investor finds it hard. Stats continually show that average holding periods for stocks has been rapidly reducing. On the NYSE it is now months whereas it used to be years and years. I'm not sure if it's fear, impatience, indecision or just a greed to be rich quickly. But wealth creation takes time and sure it is no fun when over the last three years most local portfolios have returned nothing, only beating money under the bed. What I do know is that thinking of a few years as long-term is bad. We Get Mail Dale I understand the logic behind an equally weighted ETF, and why it *should* be a good thing, but I can't help wonder if it's not a case of “in theory, but not in practise". If I compare the performance of the CSEW40 to the plain Satrix 40, without exception over an almost 10 years period, the Satrix 40 outperforms the equally weighted 40 – sometimes really significantly (thanks etfSA for the data). JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Simon Shares Woolies* (JSE code: WHL) share price is under pressure hitting 12 month lows on Monday. Recession is hurting them as high LSM consumers shop down and even Australia is struggling economically. The winner here will be Shoprite* (JSE code: SHP) as they cater for mid/low LSM consumers and will pick up Woolies shoppers. Index changes effective Monday 19th. Only changes from the main four indices is Capitec* (JSE code: CPI) into the Top40 and Implats (JSE code: IMP) exits. * I hold ungeared positions. What do you trade? Why? When I ask people this question I generally get a surprised look as if it is a stupid question and the answer is generally CFDs. The follow up question is always - why do you trade them? Here the answers get garbled because there is seldom a good reason. We need to be strategic about what we trade. There are differences between; shares, indices and FX. Different funding, risks, costs, spreads and more. We need to understand what they are and trade those that best suits trading in general and our trading specifically. JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Simon Shares Finally moving so at the pointy end of going small. Move date is next Wednesday which is also my recording day, so frankly not sure what the plan is re JSE Direct for next week. Will try make a plan, maybe a rebroadcast. PPC (JSE code: PPC), HEPS down 93% at 7c but this is all about the rest of Africa and a possible merger with AfriSam. Steinhoff (JSE code: SNH) results not bad, but so many moving parts it's hard to keep up. Bond and pref share ETFs for income. Upcoming events; JSE Power Hour: Ways that management can mislead investors JSE Power Hour: Trading for a living Now for the recession It was a surprise to most economists but thats moot as the economy and consumer is under severe pressure recession or not. Importantly this was for Q1 2017, so before the shuffle and downgrade. I think this is not going to be short and sharp, it's going to hurt as we have little to counter it. Government; cut interest rates, cut tax and increase spending. Personal; cut debt and spending. Investing; quality offshore bias, be careful of mid & small caps. We now really are Brazil. We Get Mail Ryno I think Buffett is actually a income investor. JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Simon Shares Famous Brands* (JSE code: FBR) results were decent enough with the UK acquisition only adding a small bit to the bottom line. I have been buying in the low R130's. An article on Moneyweb that strips out the top five expensive and heavy weighted stocks in the Top40 shows a historic PE of around 12.5x. In other words offering value and adding to my bullish thesis.  Spar (JSE code: SPP) results show an operating margin squeeze down from 3% a year ago to 2.5% in these results. In part the offshore acquisitions but not a great sign. Sygnia (JSE code: SYG) results were flat. I expected at least some growth in HEPS but it was spent on new staff (via an acquisition) and marketing. We are still waiting for the details of the rights issue to fund the DB x-trackers purchase. For now I like the company but still think it is expensive. Property ETFs for dividends and the tax on the dividends explained. The JSE Power Hour video on investing while junk. Upcoming events; JSE Power Hour: Ways that management can mislead investors * I hold ungeared positions. When the best time to go offshore? All the time. We can worry about the Rand and we can worry about valuations, but we'll never get it right. I buy locally listed offshore ETFs every month (buying DBXWD) and move money into USD every six months on schedule. We Get Mail Everybody Suddenly Bitcoin ramps higher and everybody wants to know if they should buy it? Or maybe Ethereum or heck why not Dogecoin. I covered Bitcoin in a recent episode, more importantly is we only get excited when the price runs?  John Please can you explain some of the JSE specific rules on market cap indexing - i.e. how/why does AB Inbev get removed from the Top 40, will/how can it ever be included?   Subscriber to our feed here Subscribe or review us in iTunes. JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Unconscious Competence Maslow's theory of how we progress and ultimately become Unconscious Competent traders. Unconscious Incompetence Conscious Incompetence Conscious Competence Unconscious Competence JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Simon Shares Blitz round of result comments; Richemont* (JSE code: CFR) Calgro M3* (JSE code: CGR) Lonmin (JSE code: LON) Astral (JSE code: ARL) Vodacom (JSE code: VOD) Balwin (JSE code: BWN) * I hold ungeared positions. Upcoming events; CoreShares investment disciplines & transactional website JSE Power Hour: Investing while junk JSE Power Hour: Ways that management can mislead investors CoreShares transactional website and some investing core principles We're running a promo with CoreShares this month including an event in Durban next Wednesday 24 May at the Riverside hotel (email info@coreshares.co.za for info or to book). This week Simon chats to Gareth Stobie about their new website that enables transacting in their ETFs and their three investment disciplines when saving for or already in retirement. JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Simon Shares Shoprite* (JSE code: SHP) announced that former CEO Basson would be exercising a put option to company forcing it to buy back some R1.8billion of Shoprite shares. No problem, except did we know about this put structure? They say it was part of his December 2003 employment contract, but the annual reports of 2003/4/5 make no mention of it? Adcorp (JSE code: ADR), horror update. They are really struggling. Metrofile* (JSE code: MFL). Everybody wants to know if I am selling, why would I be selling? Just because the price is down? Rational Intuitive, what type of investor are you?  * I hold ungeared positions. Upcoming events; JSE Power Hour: Investing while junk JSE Power Hour: Ways that management can mislead investors How to trust your trading system Time and discipline is the best way to trust. My lazy system is now some 12 years old, so I know to trust it. But how do you get to trust a new system? I like the approach suggested by Mark Douglas in his book, Trading in the Zone. Back test (eye ball) at least twenty past trades. Paper trade twenty at least trades. Do twenty live trades with small capital amount. Now you have a system with sixty 'trades' and you know if it works and can trust it. We Get Mail Andy NFEMOM*, I know you hold it, was just interested in your thoughts on the costs. Expensive, no? Annualised TER 0.37% Transaction Cost 1.20% Effective Annual Cost (EAC) 1.57%. JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Simon Shares You know Apple results were truly average when even the fan boys say it was just okay. But that pile of cash, over a quarter trillion US$! MTN update looks decent for South Africa and Nigeria. Still tough in both but at least revenue is improving. Locally April vehicle sales and PMI data both fell off a cliff. But with Easter in March last year we're not comparing apples with apples, so May will give us a clearer picture. Upcoming events; JSE Power Hour: Investing while junk JSE Power Hour: Ways that management can mislead investors How much cash do we need to start? Trading or investing requires capital. As an investor one can start very small with just a couple hundred rand, but a trader requires a lot more in order to properly manage risk. So we look at the different options (CFDs, FX, ALSI and ALMI) and how much is required to start. We Get Mail Jing-Woei In a recent Finweek (30th March) magazine issue, I read about your view on the NFEMOM fund. I was wondering if you have also had a look at the SATRIX Momentum Index Fund? Terence 2% difference between ASHT40 and SATRIX40 closing prices, how come? JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Simon Shares Purple (JSE code: PPE) who own Easy Equities had a very rough set results and as they comment in the commentary they need a capital injection. What does tihs mean for the business and clients? @csavagegt247 @Richards_Karin @Caro1Graham @gary_dyk @EasyEquities Some more comforting news regarding EE's nominee First World Trader Nominees (FTW). Taken from their T&C's. pic.twitter.com/oXSELq2QDZ — Johann Biermann (@JohannBiermann1) April 25, 2017 Listed property or buy-to-let Power Hour was great, packed wth tons of details and the spreadsheet so you can crunch your own numbers. Kering results showed very strong growth for their luxury brands in Asia Pacific and this has spurred Richemont* (JSE code: CFR) higher. Details; Gucci +48% vs consensus +21%, Bottega Veneta +2% vs consensus -4%, Saint Laurent +33% vs consensus +19%. Steinhoff (JSE code: SNH) is loving the French election first round results. Upcoming events JSE Power Hour: Investing while junk * I hold ungeared positions. Trading multiple systems How to manage trading different systems? I trade three system with ALSI futures and I manage it by having a primary system that takes precedence over the other two, otherwise I could end up short and long at the same time. Alternatively trade different products (add FX to the mix and trade different crosses). Another option is one trading system but different products or markets. Engulfing candles system video Gap close system video JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Simon Shares UK snap election for 8 June and French first round presidential elections this Sunday. Pick n Pay (JSE code: PIK) results looking decent but stock remains expensive. Combined Motor Holdings (JSE code: CMH), amazing results in a tough space. Top management and solid balance sheet. World Bank cuts our 2017 growth target from their original 1.1% to 0.6%, after cabinet reshuffle and subsequent downgrades. How we hurt our trading Message from a trading friend; "I think the true art of trading is learning to be completely satisfied with your own objectives. Rather than constantly worrying about what could have been if ..." Trading is simple. Buy when the chart says buy, sell when it says sell and sit on your hands in-between. But we over think it, we believe in complexity and this hurts us. I did not go short over the long weekend because, well politicians. I decide that I needed a new rule about 4 day weekends, do not hold over them? In truth I have been trading my ALSI systems all through recent recalls and shuffles and it had one of it's best runs on recent years for March with a very good April thus far. So why the sudden decision to change rules re long weekends? And what about three day weekends, will they in time also be bad? Normal two day weekends and eventually overnight holding? We Get Mail Jan-Albert I would like to pick your brain about the big "nationalising" of banks and mines. If nationalisation is on the cards we all lose? Or do we? Or is it hot air? You would also be out of a job? Or would you? Questions everywhere and I have no answers. JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Simon Shares Our banks are now being downgraded by S&P and Fitch, this is to be expected. Tongaat*, I have been buying and now have full allocation. Still my preferred second tier portfolio pick. Taste selling jewelry and doubling down on international food brands with another rights issue coming. Japan, worth investing in? Upcoming events JSE Power Hour: Listed property instead or buy-to-let * I hold ungeared positions. Capitec* - should we worry? Lots of concern abut rising bad debts and how this will impact Capitec. They identify three risks; market, credit & business. Rescheduling is a risk that concerns many but Capitec defends it in being better business and they have over 200% provisions on arrears and they are well ahead of Basel 3 2019 requirements. Further when they reschedule a loan they increase provisions against non payment. They have been declining more loans and have been tightening credit granting criteria since April 2015 and now 92% of the value of a loan is provided for when three instalments are missed. In short they are obsessive about managing risk. That said tougher economic conditions, credit card and longer term loans do add to risk and they will likely see bad debts increasing. But they are not going to do an African Bank. Longer term they're earning more from non interest but this will take a long time to become significant against loan profits. The annual report is due later this month and will be online here. I had an aggressive R720 buy price, but that was before shuffles and downgrades and with growth likely to be hit post all the noise R620 is my safer buy price. We Get Mail Mkululi The question is in February the end/beginning of government year. The money I contributed which was pulled on the night of 28Feb2017, which financial year does it belong to? last year/this year. Jonathon I just watched the "lazy trading system explained" video and I had one question. In the risk management section you, Simon, talk about initial and secondary entry points to invest your 25% in 12.5% blocks however I was unclear as what qualifies as a secondary entry. Is the secondary entry point the next time both the primary and secondary triggers occur following the first investment? Alexander I am giving my nephew an investment account with a lump sum of R1000 for his 16th. I am leaning towards an ETF. Could you possibly suggest one that would be a good long term investment? JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Down we go Standard and Poors downgraded our offshore foreign debt, not ZAR debt. This is about 10% of total SA debt. Technically we're not junk as that requires two agencies to rate us junk. But all said this is bad and expected and our portfolios should have been ready and waiting. It took countries like Uruguay, Croatia, Ireland etc. on average 7 years to regain their investment grade status after falling to junk! Columbia took 12 years and over the last 19 years, S&P has downgraded 23 countries to junk status, of those only 6 recovered, shortest recovery time was 5 years. How does it hurt? Debt costs for the country go up, so higher taxes and less government spending. Interest rates higher and rand weaker putting pressure on the middle class. Poor will be hurt with real damage is done to the middle class. JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.  

Simon Shares Capitec* (JSE code: CPI) through results got everybody talking about the "arrears coverage ratio" dropping to 208% vs. 223% previously and vs. 196% in 2015. This got all the attention last time as well, I not concerned and my 'aggressive' buy price is now around R719. I have some USD expenses due in the next week or so and have taken a hedge using NEWUSD* just in case. Anchor Capital results showed a serious slowing of growth but still a stock with a great looking future and at around 600c very attractive. I have bene trying to add to my very very small Sea Harvest* holding but I don't want to chase the stock as I think we may see some weakness in the weeks ahead. 1275c would be my ideal entry. It traded 1270c last week, but I wasn't paying attention and missed them. UK has triggered Brexit and now Scotland wants out of the UK. A really excellent post by Kristia on bond ETFs. Upcoming events JSE Power Hour: Listed property instead or buy-to-let * I hold ungeared positions. Protecting yourself from the Rand With the Rand getting all hot and bothered again after a protracted run stronger I thought a quick look at how we can manage our portfolio against a weaker currency. We have the easy things like offshore stocks that are locally listed, offshore earning stocks, locally listed offshore ETFs and the NEWUSD mentioned above. There is also a pure offshore bank or brokerage account or heavily invested into commodity stocks. But the bigger issue is that political squabbles are part and parcel of being a South African investor and Rand weakness is also our future, even if at times we have strength. So we need to build a resilient portfolio that survives these events. JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.