JSEDirect with Simon Brown

SARB inflation target

Gold Pullback in Focus Gold surged to $3,500 before a sharp pullback to $3,321. Simon breaks down what caused the spike — including comments from Trump about Powell and rate cuts. Weekly chart shows potential kangaroo tail reversal — possible zone to watch: $2,800–$3,000. Gold | Weekly | 23 April 2025 Trump, Powell & IMF Forecast Downgrades Trump critiques Powell and Fed policy while possibly setting up a scapegoat. IMF cuts global growth forecasts from 3.2% to 2.8%. South Africa's expected GDP is now at 1% — far below Treasury's 1.9% target. Rare Earths: Not So Rare, Still Strategic China's dominance in rare earths: 69% production, 90% processing. Simon looks at the VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Metals ETF (REMX) as a thematic play. Pros & cons of investing in rare earths — not fully sold on the ETF himself. Flashback: 5 Years Since Negative Oil Remember April 2020? Oil went negative (-$40.32)! Breakdown of why it happened (physical settlement, lack of storage). One of the wildest moments in market history. 21 April 2020 | WTO goes negative New Battery Tech from China's CATL Sodium-ion batteries could rival lithium: cheaper, safer, fast-charging. CATL is profitable and pays a dividend, but listed in Shenzhen, making access tricky. Aspen's R2 Billion Hit Brief mention of Aspen's contract dispute and loss. Lack of transparency continues to damage trust in management. Simon Brown * I hold ungeared positions. All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order    

Simon Brown chats with Glynn Allen from Shyft Global on the history of the app and the recent introduction of JSE shares and a look ahead to new features.

  S&P 500 Bounce? After a rough start, Monday's trading saw a small recovery. But with Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff announcements looming, markets could be in for more volatility. Budget Vote Approaches: The ANC lacks votes to pass the postponed budget, with opposition parties like MK and EFF holding out. Political and economic uncertainty remains high. Commodities on a Quiet Rally: Gold (+19.5%), Copper (+26.5%), and Rhodium (+24.5%) lead the way, while oil and aluminium lag. The CRB Index is up 5.4% year-to-date. Atlanta Fed GDP Now Update: Q1 GDP estimate revised to -0.5% from -2.8%. Adjustments for gold trade data make the outlook slightly less dire. Amazon at a Discount? Stock down 20% from its highs, with a historically low P/E ratio of 34. Analysts see upside potential. Amazon | Weekly Chat | 31 March 2025 Johnson & Johnson's Dividend Appeal: Trading near $165, with a potential drop to $150 making its 3% yield even more attractive. Johnson & Johnson | Weekly Chat | 31 March 2025 New ETNs on the JSE: Nvidia, Palantir, Novo Nordisk, and more available via FNB, offering exposure to top global stocks with local accessibility. Simon Brown * I hold ungeared positions. All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order 00:00 Market Overview and Economic Indicators 03:09 US Tariff Implications and Market Reactions 05:45 Commodities Performance and Economic Impact 09:03 Stock Analysis: Amazon's Market Position 12:00 Stock Analysis: Johnson & Johnson's Stability 14:38 Investment Strategies and Innovations  

Education Stocks: Winners and Losers Stadio: Strong performance with double-digit growth and 50,000+ learners. Benefiting from a shortage of university spaces and the struggles at UNISA. Potential for further growth through distance learning and university status. ADvTech*: Long-term holding with solid but not as aggressive growth. Strong presence in tertiary education and schools. Expansion into East Africa showing promise. Curro: Disappointing results with flat learner numbers and write-downs on buildings. Struggles may be due to internal issues or broader economic pressures on lower-income consumers. Commodity Movers: Copper & Rhodium Copper: Near all-time highs due to demand from EVs, data centers, and energy transition. Companies like BHP*, Anglo, and Rio ramping up production. Simon is playing the copper trade through BHP Group. Copper | Weekly | 25 March 2025 Rhodium: Seeing a price recovery after a prolonged downturn. Benefiting PGM miners, though still far from peak levels. Platinum & Palladium: Relatively stable within established price ranges. BYD's Breakthrough in Battery Tech BYD claims a five-minute charge for 400 km range, setting a new benchmark for EVs. Outpacing Tesla and other competitors in rapid-charging efficiency. Dominating the affordable EV space with sub-$10,000 models. Tesla's Market Share Decline in Europe Tesla's share of the European BEV market dropped from 21% to 9.6%. Competitive pricing from BYD and lack of Tesla model updates. CEO Elon Musk's political involvement potentially affecting brand perception. Remgro: Growing Discount to NAV Reported net asset value (NAV) of R276.89, but share price only R155. The discount to NAV is reaching extreme levels. Historically, Remgro traded at a much smaller discount, raising questions about potential revaluation. Simon Brown * I hold ungeared positions. All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order 00:00 Market Overview and Education Stocks 06:51 Commodities: Copper and Rhodium Insights 13:34 Electric Vehicle Market Dynamics 18:02 Remgro's Financial Performance and Valuation Insights    

  Market Overview: Top 40 Index: Hit an all-time high of 82,378, currently at 81,800. SA markets remain strong despite a US market selloff. Top40 | Weekly | 18 March 2025 Gold: Broke $3,000 for the first time last week, currently around $3,030. Continues to rise amid geopolitical uncertainties. Gold | Weekly | 19 March 2025 Rand: Trading at 18.07, briefly touching 18.0088 earlier. Dollar weakness driving strength, with a target level of 17.80. Key Market Insights: Gold as a Portfolio Hedge: Maintains a 6-7% weighting in portfolio. Recent purchase at $2,865 via GLD ETF in New York. Potential buy zones: $2,800 and $2,850. Dollar Index Trends: Initially targeted 104, broke through to 101. Could drive the Rand towards 17.80. Global Uncertainty & Market Reactions: European tariffs and Ukraine war concerns. Trump-Putin meeting adds to geopolitical tensions. Elevated US market valuations suggest exploring Europe ETFs. Investment Strategies: AI Participation Note by Standard Bank: Tracks the S&P Kensho AI Index. Two options: 100% Capital Protection - Minimum investment of R25,000, capital secured, potential upside. Capital at Risk with 140% Participation Rate - Higher returns if index rises, but losses if it drops more than 40%. Open for investment until March 28, 2025. Renergen* Helium Production Milestone: Finally delivered helium after years of delays. Stock surged from R3 to R9.30, but challenges remain. Phase 2 expansion and NASDAQ listing pending. Retail investors remain cautious due to past delays. Macroeconomic Outlook: Atlanta Fed GDP Now Forecast: Predicts Q1 GDP contraction of -2.1%. Economic slowdown concerns intensifying. Upcoming Rate Decisions: US Fed (FOMC): Unlikely to cut rates. SA Reserve Bank (MPC): Potential space for a rate cut. Simon Brown * I hold ungeared positions. All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order 00:00 Market Overview and Key Movements 05:47 Gold and Rand Dynamics 12:08 Investment Opportunities in AI 17:43 Renigen's Helium Production and Challenges 20:06 Budget Insights and Economic Outlook    

  The Atlanta Fed's GDP Forecast The Atlanta Fed GDPNow predicts a -2.4% GDP contraction for Q1 2025. Market uncertainty due to tariffs and economic policy concerns. Corporate travel and consumer bookings showing signs of weakness as Delta Airlines downgrades their expectations from mid January. Market Reactions and Sell-Offs Nasdaq and S&P had their worst single-day drops since 2022. Major stocks like Nvidia, ASML, and CrowdStrike seeing significant declines. Bitcoin at $81,000 amid broader market volatility. Europe as a Potential Investment Opportunity Europe's economic stimulus: Germany announces a €500B package. ETFs to consider: EURO STOXX 50 (SYGEU) vs. MSCI Europe Industrial Sector. Potential for growth in industrial and defense sectors. Euro Stoxx 50 | Weekly | 12 March 2025 Just One Lap Turns 14 Founded in 2011 to provide online financial education. Reflection on the platform's growth and community support. South African Budget Review Possible VAT increase; lack of innovative fiscal strategies. Previous reliance on gold reserves for financial stability. Discussion on potential economic impacts. HomeChoice International Results Revenue up 21%, HEPS up 27%, dividend up 17%. Expanding into fintech with PayJustNow and FinChoice. Liquidity concerns despite strong financial performance. Two-Pot Retirement Withdrawals - Where Did the Money Go? Initial claims suggested debt repayment, but data suggests spending. Increased vehicle sales, hospitality sector growth (e.g., Spur, Sun International). Implications for long-term financial planning. Simon Brown * I hold ungeared positions. All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order 00:00 Economic Outlook: Recession Predictions and Market Reactions 09:07 Investing in Europe: Opportunities and ETFs 12:07 Celebrating 14 Years of Just One Lap 13:20 Budget Analysis: VAT Increase and Economic Innovation 15:09 Home Choice International: Business Performance and Liquidity Challenges 18:19 Consumer Spending Trends: Where Did the Money Go?  

Anglo-American's Cash Raid on Anglo-Platinum Anglo-American's decision to unbundle its stake in Anglo-Platinum raises concerns. Declaring a special dividend of R59 per share wipes out the company's entire R17.6 billion cash reserves. Implications for investors: selling pressure expected as shares land in new brokerage accounts. China's Tech Revival? The appearance of Jack Ma and Xi Jinping together could mark a softening stance toward tech companies. Alibaba partners with Apple, integrating its AI into Apple's ecosystem. Is China reopening the door for its tech giants? Bull Market Momentum Global indices continue to hit all-time highs, with AI and tech stocks leading the charge. Not just tech: European and Asian markets show strength. Are valuations stretched, or is there more room to run? Simon Brown * I hold ungeared positions. All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order    

Market Updates & Analysis: Sasol Reversal Pattern? – Examining Sasol's technical setup and the significance of a ‘kangaroo tail' pattern. Rand Stability Amid Trump's Threats – Despite geopolitical concerns, the rand remains steady. Top 40 at All-Time Highs – Market momentum and investor confidence. South Africa's Budget Speech (Wednesday, 2 PM SAST) Revenue shortfalls and potential tax bracket adjustments Universal Basic Income and National Health Insurance funding discussion Expectations for the fiscal policy outlook Stock & Sector Insights: Telkom: Revenue up 0.9%, in a turnaround phase, but Simon remains skeptical about telcos. Santam: Strong earnings growth (40-60% increase in HEPS), but insurance sector risks remain. Shoprite*: Consumer stock pullback; long-term bullish outlook despite short-term pressure. China Stocks & ETFs: Alibaba up 40% on Apple collaboration Satrix China ETF – is it time to reconsider investing in China? General sentiment split between ‘China is uninvestable' vs. ‘China has potential' Bond Market Watch: SA Bonds Showing Volatility: A significant move in bond yields post-Trump comments, raising concerns about borrowing costs. Simon Brown * I hold ungeared positions. All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order  

  Trump Trade Tariffs & Global Market Impact: Initial tariffs of 10% (China) and 25% (Canada, Mexico) announced but later revised. U.S.-Canada relations strained, with Warren Buffett warning of reputational damage. Global negotiation shifts—China, Russia, and Europe eye opportunities. Continued U.S.-China trade tensions, including semiconductor restrictions and rare earth tariffs. Market volatility expected; long-term investment strategies recommended. Investment Strategies Amid Uncertainty: Volatility is high—avoid panic selling. Keep cash reserves for opportunities (buy the dip cautiously). Long-term focus: presidential terms are temporary, investments span decades. Interest Rate Decisions & Market Reactions: Bank of England expected to cut rates. U.S. Fed Chair Jerome Powell pauses rate hikes due to inflation concerns. South Africa's MPC cuts rates, prime now at 11%. Analysts predict one to two more rate cuts in 2024. Gold Market Strength & Outlook: Gold price hovering near $2,900, with potential to break $3,000. Supply constraints—minimal new gold mining projects. Strong central bank purchases—1,000+ tons bought in 2023. Retail ETF inflows return after three years of outflows. Gold miners like Harmony, AngloGold*, and Pan African positioned well. Gold weekly | 06 February 2025 Retail Sector & Consumer Spending: Mixed trading updates: Pick n Pay and Boxer show early turnaround signs. Modest growth in TFG, Mr. Price*, and Clicks; Shoprite* remains strong. Cautious consumer spending patterns persist. Two-Pot Retirement System: Initial withdrawals lower than expected—around R50 billion. Future ongoing withdrawals expected as a structural component in SA's economy. Vehicle Sales Trends: January sales at 46,400—stronger than expected. Used car market expanding, Chinese brands gaining traction. Auto sector investment options: CMH*, Motus, and Zeda. Such African monthly vehicle sales Sasol's Ongoing Struggles: Six-month trading update—earnings per share around R14. Continual asset write-downs and operational challenges. PE ratio suggests market pricing for bankruptcy, but survival likely. No clear turnaround signals yet—investors should wait for stronger confirmation. Simon Brown * I hold ungeared positions. All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order 00:00 Market Overview and Podcast Introduction 01:10 Trump Tariffs and Global Trade Dynamics 06:25 Interest Rates and Economic Implications 10:02 Gold Market Trends and Predictions 12:51 Retail Sector Performance and Consumer Behavior 14:17 Vehicle Sales Insights and Market Trends 16:40 Sasol's Financial Challenges and Future Outlook    

The Cristal Challenge runs until October, with participants picking five local stocks (no ETFs or sub-20c stocks) to hold through the year. Simon's picks include a mix of stable “banker” stocks and speculative plays: Richemont*: High-end luxury giant with strong fundamentals and global market appeal despite challenges in China. Trading near R3,500, with long-term potential boosted by luxury market recovery and stable global demand. Shoprite*: Dominant grocery retailer in South Africa, benefiting from market share growth and diversified business lines like 60/60 delivery. A steady performer with consistent earnings growth and market dominance, trading at a PE of 24. ADvTech*: Education sector leader, well-positioned to meet growing private schooling and tertiary education demands. Education giant trading below its historical PE average, supported by asset-light growth strategies. Calgro M3*: Affordable housing developer, thriving on demand for low-to-mid-income housing in South Africa. Value pick with a PE below 3 and a focus on affordable housing, addressing a critical market need. Purple Group*: Innovator behind EasyEquities, leveraging platform fees and expanded product offerings to drive revenue growth. Growth potential through EasyEquities' platform fees, rising customer base, and additional financial products. Simon Brown * I hold ungeared positions. All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order  

TSMC's Record-Breaking Results Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) hit $26 billion in quarterly revenue. A strong contender in the AI supply chain with growing global operations. Gold: Continuing the Bull Run Gold remains a strong investment pick for Simon, with a potential to hit $3,000/oz. Gold | Weekly | 21 January 2025 Brent Crude Oil Concerns Rising oil prices could hurt both the global and South African economies. Trump Meme Coins & Meme Coin Mania Trump and Melania meme coins: Novelty or nonsense? Simon unpacks the hype. Grinrod & Mozambique Challenges Operational risks in Mozambique but potential opportunities with Transnet's private rail plans. Sasol: A Case of Caution Chemical spin-offs and high oil prices spark discussion, but Simon isn't convinced to buy. Cristal  Challenge Simon's picks for the Cristal  Crystal Challenge: Shoprite*, Purple Group*, ADvtTch*, Calgro M3*, and Richemont*. Simon Brown * I hold ungeared positions. All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order  

For the twelfth year in a row Marc Ashton, Keith McLachlan & Simon Brown get together and make three predictions each for year ahead. They then also give their expectations for the local Top40 index and the Rand against the US$. But first every year they start by scoring their previous year predictions to keep things real and honest.

In the final show of the year Simon looks back at the many local and offshore winners (and a few losers) of 2024. There have been some excellent returns, but will they carry on into 2025?

  Boxer IPO Hits the Market Boxer* (JSE code will be BOX) lists on 28 November, debuting at R54/share after a highly oversubscribed IPO. Strategies discussed for trading or investing in Boxer shares, including buying through Pick n Pay shares. Key takeaway: Patience is key; wait for potential pullbacks. Two-Pot Retirement Savings and Market Impact Early evidence of consumer spending from the two-pot retirement system. Stocks like Mr. Price*, Pepkor, and Keith McLachlan's picks (e.g., Afrimat, Netcare) reviewed as beneficiaries. Satrix 40 ETF Turns 24 Launched in 2000, the Satrix 40 has delivered an annualized return of 11.3%. Impact: Introduced passive investing and slashed fees for South African investors. Bitcoin's Psychological Barrier at $100,000 Bitcoin fell short of the $100K milestone, retracing to around $93K. Analysis of big psychological levels in markets and what this means for Bitcoin's momentum. Bitcoin | Weekly | 27 November 2024 Anglo-Platinum Share Sale Anglo-American reduces its stake in Anglo-Platinum, selling at cycle lows. Discussion on PGM market challenges and future outlook. Trump's Proposed Tariffs Announced 10% tariffs on all Chinese imports and 25% on goods from Mexico and Canada. Potential economic implications and geopolitical fallout analysed. Rand, DXY, and Gold The Rand holds surprisingly well despite DXY strength; predictions for 2024 suggest potential recovery. Gold price fluctuations and long-term bullish outlook. US$ Index (DXY) | Weekly | 27 November 2024 Commodity Spotlight: Coffee and Cocoa Coffee prices hit 20-year highs due to Brazilian droughts, impacting consumer costs. Cocoa prices stabilise after a surge, with Nestlé and soft commodity ETFs in focus. Super Group and SG Fleet Deal SG Fleet receives a buyout offer, boosting share prices. Opportunities in second-tier stocks like Invicta and Hudaco highlighted for a potentially improving economic environment. MPC Update South African Reserve Bank increases rates by 0.25%, citing risks from core inflation and external pressures. Simon Brown * I hold ungeared positions. All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order 00:00 Market Overview and Boxer IPO Insights 03:08 Two-Pot Money and Consumer Spending Trends 06:03 Satrix 40: A 24-Year Retrospective 08:51 Bitcoin's Psychological Barriers and Market Sentiment 11:40 Anglo-American's Strategic Moves and Market Reactions 14:58 Commodity Prices: Coffee and Cocoa Trends 17:49 Monetary Policy Committee Decisions and Economic Outlook jj  

  October Inflation Local CPI at 2.8%, yet prime is 11.5% ahead of the MPC decision this afternoon. The gap is far to wide, SARB needs to cut aggressively. South Africa | Prime vs. CPI Gold and Bitcoin Gold has bounced, but is this for real? Bitcoin heading for US$100k Rand weakness The US$ remains string and is hurting the Rand. US$ Index Astral results Good results Paid back R1.1billion short-term debt But volatile, a trading stock. Simon Brown * I hold ungeared positions. All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order  

  Market Overview Crypto Surge, Gold Decline: Bitcoin rallies as investors shift from gold to crypto. Gold hit a recent high of $2,800 but is now pulling back, possibly towards $2,300-$2,400. Central banks continue to buy gold as a hedge against U.S. dollar dominance and geopolitical risks. [caption id="attachment_43623" align="aligncenter" width="849"] Gold | Weekly | 13 November 2024 Rand Weakness: The ZAR weakened above 18 to the dollar, driven by strong U.S. dollar demand amidst market volatility. South African Rand overshoots due to its high liquidity, making it vulnerable to sharp moves. Trump's Impact on Crypto Market speculation suggests Trump may be crypto-friendly, unlike the current SEC chair Gary Gensler, known for his strict regulatory stance. Potential shifts in the regulatory landscape could benefit cryptocurrencies, particularly Bitcoin. Simon holds Bitcoin and advises caution: ensure crypto is stored in a hardware wallet for safety. Bitcoin | Weekly | 13 November 2024 Local Telco Sector: Vodacom & MTN Both companies struggle with weakened African currencies like the Ethiopian Birr and Egyptian Pound. Profits are impacted when converted back to ZAR. Despite attractive dividend yields (MTN ~4%, Vodacom ~5.6%), Simon remains bearish, highlighting high capex demands and sector challenges. Raubex: Construction Sector Bright Spot Strong results from Raubex, showing resilience in a struggling sector. Diversification into renewable energy and mining operations boosts performance. Simon notes it as one of the few quality construction plays left, alongside Afrimat. Consumer Market Struggles Updates from AVI and BidCorp indicate persistent weak consumer demand, despite optimism from a possible government of national unity. Inflation has eased, but consumer spending remains subdued as households repair balance sheets. Retail updates show mixed results: Truworths reported disappointing numbers, while The Foschini Group* performed better. Tencent Results Tencent posted strong results, though it did not significantly boost Naspers or Prosus stock prices. The market reaction was muted despite the solid performance. Final Thoughts The market remains volatile, with significant moves in crypto, gold, and the Rand. Simon advises a cautious approach, with a focus on quality stocks and long-term plays. Remember: be kind and look out for others. Kindness is rule number one. Simon Brown * I hold ungeared positions. All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order 00:00 Market Overview: Crypto vs Gold 02:50 The Trump Effect on Gold and Crypto 06:01 The Future of the Rand and Emerging Markets 08:55 Sector Analysis: Vodacom, MTN, and Raubex 16:02 Consumer Trends and Company Updates gg  

Episode Summary: Simon Brown dives into the week's biggest financial and economic stories, covering Trump's election win, Nvidia's inclusion in the Dow, rate cuts expected from the FOMC and BOE, and the latest updates on Murray & Roberts, palladium, and gold. Recorded after market open, this episode sheds light on key trades, trends, and the shifting global landscape. Trump's Victory – What's the Trade? Trump's presidential win sparks market reactions, with immediate rallies in the S&P, Nasdaq, and Bitcoin. Simon discusses potential policy impacts, such as tariffs, technology restrictions on China, and implications for commodities, oil, and the South African economy. Notes on the uncertainty of Trump's policies and their potential effects on inflation, EVs, and cryptocurrency. Nvidia in the Dow; Intel Out Nvidia enters the Dow Jones, replacing Intel. Simon critiques the Dow's price-based index system but acknowledges Nvidia's stock performance, fuelled by strong demand from major tech firms. Discussion on how Nvidia's AI hardware demand could shape future stock gains. Nvidia | Weekly chart | Close 06 Nov 24 Murray & Roberts Update Murray & Roberts faces project downscaling from De Beers, revealing challenges tied to low diamond demand. Simon examines the ripple effects across the mining and construction sectors, highlighting how competitor data can provide insights. Palladium & Gold Trends Palladium and gold face downward pressure; Simon explores reasons for the dips, including potential G7 sanctions on Russian palladium. Simon highlights that gold's long-term appeal remains strong, driven by central banks diversifying away from U.S. dollars into gold. Gold | Weekly chart | 07 Nov 24 Bank Rate Cuts – FOMC & BOE Rate cuts anticipated from the FOMC and Bank of England as central banks shift to a rate-cutting cycle. Insights on the potential impact on global markets and currency dynamics. ASML and AI Hardware Market ASML's forward guidance disappoints, affecting semiconductor market outlook. Simon explains the unique position of ASML in the AI chip supply chain and its long-term value as a buy-the-dip candidate. CrowdStrike Resurgence CrowdStrike's recovery following a Microsoft update issue and Delta lawsuit. Simon assesses the stock's growth potential in the cybersecurity space. Listener Takeaway: Markets remain unpredictable but resilient, with global relations, tech policies, and central bank strategies driving shifts. Simon emphasizes informed trading and the long view in these uncertain times. Simon Brown * I hold ungeared positions. All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order Disclaimers: The JSE Direct podcast is independent of JSE Limited and reflects Simon Brown's views, not necessarily those of the JSE. Always consider risks when investing.

  Local Inflation Update Inflation at 3.8% - lowest since March 2021 (3.5 years ago) Well below SARB's target range midpoint of 4.5% Q3 year-on-year inflation at 4.3% (vs SARB's expected 4.4%) SA CPI YonY September 2024 November MPC Meeting Outlook Rate cut expected, but size uncertain Possibility of 25bps vs 50bps cut Factors affecting decision: Rand weakness Rising oil prices Global economic conditions Important titbit about today's SA headline CPI print. It meant that CPI rose by 4.3% y/y in Q3 2024. In Sept, SARB expected 4.4% for Q3, implying Sept print largely in line with their expectations. Therefore, today's number will not change SARB's thinking. Folks should calm down. — Hugo Pienaar (@hugopien) October 23, 2024   Currency Markets US Dollar showing significant strength DXY moved from 100.42 to 104.33 (≈4% increase in one month) Strong capital flows into US Rand trading at R17.73 Potential to move above R18 Long-term targets of R16.80 and R15.50 looking less likely short-term US Election Impact Potential implications of different outcomes Trump's proposed policies could be inflationary: Planned tariffs Immigration restrictions Impact on labor markets and prices Famous Brands Results Analysis Using AI Demonstration of AI analysis using Google Notebook LM Key findings: Leading Brands: Operating margin >50% Signature Brands: Operating margin -6.7% Manufacturing: Improved margins due to diesel savings Geographic performance varies: South Africa: 1.8% margin UK operations showing significant decline Cash generation at R498 million (7% decrease) Plans for 89 new stores Chapters 00:00 Local Inflation and Economic Outlook 06:01 Using AI for Investment Analysis 12:06 Famous Brands Results Analysis 18:05 Comparative Analysis with SPUR Simon Brown * I hold ungeared positions. All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

  Strong Retail Sales and the Two-Pot System: Retail sales show a positive trend, rising 3.2% in August, exceeding expectations of 2.1%. The Two-Pot System has already released R20 billion in six weeks, with the money used mainly for paying down debt, saving, and spending. Retail sales recovery, though from a low base, is a strong indicator of improved consumer health due to factors like slightly lower interest rates and inflation. South African retail sales | YonY Tribute to Tito Mboweni: Simon reflects on the passing of Tito Mboweni, former Finance Minister and Reserve Bank Governor. Mboweni's contributions include institutionalising the Reserve Bank's MPC meetings and implementing key labor reforms during his tenure as Labor Minister. His lasting impact on the country's economy and financial sectors was highlighted, along with his personality as a Twitter chef and self-styled "Duke of Magoebaskloof." Johnson & Johnson – A Smooth Dividend Play: Simon shares his reasons for holding Johnson & Johnson: consistent dividend growth (around 3% yield) and a steady 8% annual share price growth in US dollars. Despite some issues, the company offers reliable long-term returns in a competitive health and consumer space. Johnson & Johnson quarterly dividend payments Bytes Technology Group and Investment Opportunity: Bytes operates in the UK, offering hardware, software, and services. The stock showed mixed market reactions but has strong support around certain levels. With a forward P/E of 20 and a dividend yield of 3.6%, Simon sees it as an interesting opportunity for long-term investors in the tech space. Quilter Trading Update: Quilter's strong Q3 results follow a good first half of the year, with significant inflows supporting future earnings. A solid financial services player with a dividend yield near 4% and a forward P/E of 15, Quilter is performing well and trading at all-time highs since its 2018 listing. Sasol – A Weak Chart: Simon discusses Sasol's ongoing struggles, with a weak chart suggesting possible further declines. Investors should wait for technical indicators before making any moves. Brent Oil Price and Rand Volatility: Brent crude oil hit highs recently but is now retreating to $70 per barrel, with potential for further declines due to global oversupply. The rand, affected by dollar strength, is volatile but could see a return to 16.80 against the dollar in the coming months. Chapters 00:00 Retail Sales Recovery and Economic Outlook 04:29 Tribute to Tito Mboweni 08:32 Johnson & Johnson: A Steady Investment 09:52 Bytes Technology Group: Market Reactions 12:32 Quilter's Strong Performance 14:29 Cecil's Ongoing Struggles 15:56 Brent Oil Prices and Global Economy 17:48 Volatility of the Rand and Market Predictions Simon Brown * I hold ungeared positions. All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

Overview: In this episode of JSE Direct, Simon Brown breaks down the latest market updates, key stock analyses, and insights into the South African investment landscape. Episode highlights include discussions on property developers Calgro M3 and Balwin, Capitec's strong performance, Purple Group's rise, Afrimat's challenging update, and Wilson Bailey's long-term chart breakout. The show also covers upcoming events and Brown's views on Nvidia's stock movement. Property Developers: Calgro M3* vs. Balwin Calgro M3: Delivered a strong trading update, attributed to its flexibility in targeting lower-income segments. Calgro's ability to adapt and scale down offerings positions it well, with potential for significant price appreciation. Trading at a low PE of 3.5, Brown argues that in a normal market, it should command a 10x PE, suggesting a fair value of around R9. Balwin: Struggling with higher entry price points in its developments. Despite weaker performance, there may still be value. If results improve in the future, Balwin could present a solid opportunity. Brown speculates that a delisting could be on the cards if the stock remains undervalued. Calgro M3 weekly chart | Close 09 October 2024 Capitec: Expensive, but Resilient Capitec continues to outperform with robust growth, though it trades at a high PE of 27 and a price-to-book of 7.8. Despite concerns about its premium valuation, the company's diverse ventures, from mobile services to expanding insurance offerings, make it a long-term core portfolio holding. Historical growth shows Capitec's resilience and market leadership in the South African banking sector. Purple Group*: A Breakout Stock After months of a consistent seller at 80 cents, Purple Group's stock broke higher, reaching 98 cents before pulling back. Brown remains optimistic, particularly as trading volumes in the JSE pick up, benefiting Purple's core business. Although trading at a high PE of 45, Brown is bullish about its prospects in a rising market. Afrimat: A Tough Year, but Long-Term Potential Afrimat's trading update indicated a sharp drop in earnings (down 75-85%), partly due to the acquisition of Lafarge, which is still loss-making. While the near-term outlook is challenging, Brown remains optimistic about Afrimat's long-term potential, especially if South Africa enters a construction boom. He sees the stock as attractively priced for long-term investors. Wilson Bayly Holmes-Ovcon (WBHO): A 16-Year Breakout Brown discusses WBHO's impressive 17-year chart, finally breaking out after a long consolidation period. He suggests the stock could benefit from renewed local construction activity, while Afrimat remains his preferred pick in the sector due to its diversification into industrial metals. A breakout after a 17-year consolidation is very bullish in TA. Add the fundamental underpin. I think this still has lots of room to run. pic.twitter.com/fBk5BCKtvk — Richard Thomason (@richytee) October 9, 2024   Nvidia: Breaking New Highs Nvidia, another stock Brown holds, is testing all-time highs after a series of consolidations. With Nvidia's historical pattern of doubling after breaking key resistance levels, Brown remains confident in the stock's potential for further growth despite its high valuation. Nvidia weekly chart | Close 09 October 2024 Simon Brown * I hold ungeared positions. All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order Chapters 00:00 Market Overview and Calgro M3 vs Balwin 07:11 Capitec's Performance and Future Outlook 12:43 Exploring Other Stocks: Purple Group and Afrimat 18:15 Long-term Trends: Wilson Bailey and Nvidia

  China's Market Rebound Stimulus Measures: The Chinese government has initiated a stimulus, which includes cutting reserve requirements and lowering interest rates. While spending has not picked up fully, the China 50 ETF (in US dollars) has wiped out losses dating back to July 2022. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index shows a similar trend. Market Sentiment: Short squeezes have played a role in pushing the prices of big Chinese companies like Alibaba and Tencent higher. Despite concerns about China's long-term investability (raised by experts like Viv Govender of Rand Swiss), Simon remains optimistic about continued growth in the medium term. Shift in Hot Money: There's been a notable shift away from tech stocks like Apple and Nvidia, with more capital flowing towards China in recent days. Simon discusses the potential for short-term pullbacks, but he sees this as an opportunity. South African ETFs Performance Top Performers: Property ETFs have outperformed, with the CSPROP, Satrix Property, and 1nvest Property ETFs gaining between 30% and 31.7% over nine months ending in September 2023. Underperformers: ETFs linked to palladium, platinum, and tech innovation (e.g., Sygnia's Fourth Industrial Revolution ETF and Satrix Healthcare Innovation ETF) have shown negative returns. Outlook for South African REITs Simon expects further growth in the property sector but at a more moderate pace than this year's 30% returns. He highlights the potential impact of upcoming interest rate cuts, consumer spending at malls, and the demand for yield as government bond rates decrease. Some REITs, particularly those in rural and township retail spaces, are performing exceptionally well. The market tends to move ahead of the cuts based on expectations, but technically any cut is great for cheaper debt and more consumer spending at the underlying properties, plus a lower rate for the valuations which means a higher present value. So yes, they can keep going. — The Finance Ghost (@FinanceGhost) October 2, 2024   The South African Rand and Global Markets The Rand has seen fluctuations, dipping to as low as 17.02 against the US dollar and facing pressures from global events such as the Iranian attack on Israel and rising oil prices. Simon expects the Rand to strengthen and potentially break below 17, possibly reaching levels as low as 14. Oil Prices: OPEC is grappling with maintaining production discipline. Oil prices are likely to hover around $70 per barrel, which is positive news for South African consumers in terms of petrol prices. South African PMI and Vehicle Sales PMI: South Africa's PMI for September was positive, indicating slight economic expansion. The absence of load shedding and lower interest rates have contributed to the improved outlook. Vehicle Sales: September saw better-than-average vehicle sales (44,000 units). Simon emphasizes the potential upside in companies like Combined Motor Holdings (CMH), which has started to perform after years of stagnation. Investment Strategy in a Bull Market September SA vehicle sales Simon reiterates his bullish stance, noting that while there will be pullbacks (up to 10% corrections), the overall trend remains upward. He advises staying long in the market, especially in a bull phase. Simon Brown * I hold ungeared positions. All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

Summary: In this episode of JSE Direct, Simon Brown delves into the latest developments in South African markets, focusing on the impact of China's major economic stimulus and the strengthening of the Rand. Key highlights include: Rand Strength: The Rand has seen notable appreciation, reaching levels of R17.12 to the US dollar. Simon discusses the drivers behind this, particularly US dollar weakness and foreign purchases of South African bonds. He explores possible future movements, with a target of R16.80 and potential for further strengthening. USDZAR | Weekly | 26 Sep 24 Global Stimulus: China's massive stimulus measures, including relaxed lending rules for banks and lower interest rates, are aimed at boosting consumer demand. This is the largest Chinese stimulus since 2008, with significant potential to impact global commodities and bolster the South African economy. Commodities & Bull Market: The commodities market is seeing positive movement, with Chinese demand driving up prices for industrial metals like copper, iron ore, and coal. Simon notes how the previous commodity bull run in 2021 significantly strengthened the Rand and discusses the potential for a similar scenario if China's economy continues to gain momentum. Market Performance: South Africa is outperforming other emerging markets, particularly Brazil and Mexico, over the past six months. Simon explains the drivers of this outperformance and highlights the continuing bull run in the JSE Top 40 and All-Share indices. SA Equities: Our fortunes have changed significantly since the GNU was formed in June. SA has dramatically outperformed (in US$) not only Emerging markets in general, but Brazil & Mexico. SA has tilted more centrist, with a focus on the economy. Brazil & Mexico both shifted left. pic.twitter.com/Zz6OOM4dCJ — Karin Richards (@Richards_Karin) September 23, 2024   Rate Cuts: South Africa and several other global economies, including the US and Europe, have entered a rate-cutting cycle. Simon emphasises the importance of this for markets, especially property stocks, which are benefiting from lower bond yields and improved investor sentiment. JSE Index Changes: Anglo Platinum has been removed from the JSE Top 40 index, replaced by Pepkor. Simon discusses why Pepkor's entry is significant, given its position as a retailer and its attractive valuation compared to competitors. Key Discussion Points: Rand's strengthening trajectory and foreign capital inflows. China's economic stimulus and its potential effects on global commodities. Outlook for South Africa's bond and equity markets. Changes in the JSE Top 40 index with Pepkor replacing Anglo Platinum. Global rate-cutting trends and their impact on local property stocks. Simon Brown * I hold ungeared positions. All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order    

Episode Overview: In this episode, Simon Brown dives into the current economic landscape with a focus on interest rates, inflation, and the state of the South African Rand (ZAR). He also explores asset-light businesses and why they make great investments, followed by a breakdown of the latest market activity and local company results. Rate Cuts & Inflation Outlook: South African CPI (August): 4.4%. A possible drop to 3.5% in October discussed with Johan Els, Chief Economist at Old Mutual. The need for rate cuts to stimulate the economy, with experts debating between 0.25% and 0.5% cuts. Fed decision and its potential market impact. SA Prime and CPI September 2024 ZAR Strength & Market Trends: Rand showing strength, potentially reaching sub-17 levels. Global market highs: S&P 500, NASDAQ, and JSE Top 40. Consumer confidence in the US and South Africa rising but still negative. Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) & Palladium: A strong bounce in PGM stocks, driven by oversold positions and palladium production cuts. Palladium's recent performance and its potential future breakouts. Palladium weekly chart | 18 September 2024 Asset-Light Businesses & Their Investment Potential: Definition and benefits of asset-light businesses (e.g., Santova, Nvidia). Simon breaks down why businesses with fewer physical assets can provide higher returns on equity and efficiency. Comparison to asset-heavy businesses like banks and retailers. A deep dive into asset-light models like Shein, Temu, and logistics firms. Company Updates & Local Results: Outsurance: Strong financial results and special dividends; analysis of the short-term insurance industry's ability to reprice premiums annually. Altvest IPO: Simon discusses the upcoming Altvest IPO on the JSE and why he's not taking part in it, despite its interesting SME funding model. Finbond: A look at the excitement surrounding Finbond's potential delisting and the company's moves in the US market. Noteworthy Quotes: "Rate cuts are coming, and I think we'll see a short-term sell-off as markets react." "Asset-light businesses like Santova and Shein are great investment opportunities because they don't carry the heavy burden of owning physical assets." "Outsurance continues to impress with strong numbers and dividends, proving the strength of short-term insurers." Chapters 00:00 Economic Landscape and Rate Decisions 03:09 Understanding Asset-Light Businesses 05:54 Market Psychology and Upcoming Events 09:11 Local Results and Investment Insights 11:52 Exploring New Investment Opportunities 15:10 Finbond and Market Speculations 17:59 Larry Ellison and Oracle's Rise Simon Brown * I hold ungeared positions. All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order  

Summary In this episode of JSE Direct, Simon Brown discusses various topics including the troubles faced by Anglo Platinum, the performance of leisure stocks, Anglo Gold Ashanti's* acquisition of an Egyptian gold miner, and the impact of two pot withdrawals. He also touches on the future of PGMs, the growth of electric vehicles, and the psychology of markets.  Takeaways Anglo Platinum is facing challenges as Anglo American wants to get rid of their stake, causing a sell-off in the market. Anglo Platinum weekly chart The PGMs market is uncertain, with palladium and platinum prices experiencing fluctuations. The World Platinum Council projects a second year of meaningful platinum deficits, with jewelry demand expected to rise. The growth of electric vehicles is impacting the demand for PGMs, but the market is still uncertain. Investors should wait for positive price action before considering investments in PGMs. Anglo Gold Ashanti's acquisition of an Egyptian gold miner raises questions about the use of equity and the future of gold prices. Two pot withdrawals have resulted in over 4 billion rand being withdrawn from the market. Leisure stocks, such as City Lodge and Sun International, have mixed performance, with City Lodge experiencing lower occupancy rates. The growth of sports betting raises concerns about its impact on poorer individuals and the fairness of the industry. Sound Bites "Anglo Platinum has a problem which is perhaps a little more unique than just the PGMs." "There is that initial overhang. A whole lot of people will get Anglo-Platinum shares and say, 'I don't want these' and sell it." "The World Platinum Council is saying we're gonna have deficit again, that's the important point." Simon Brown * I hold ungeared positions. All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order Chapters 00:00 Challenges for Anglo Platinum and the PGMs Market 02:22 The Future of PGMs and the Impact of Electric Vehicles 07:54 The World Platinum Council's Projections 09:16 The Diminishing Role of Internal Combustion Engines 11:09 The Impact of Low Prices on Production 14:55 Anglo Gold Ashanti's Acquisition and the Use of Equity 17:56 Pot Withdrawals and their Effect on the Market 19:18 Performance of Leisure Stocks: City Lodge and Sun International 19:42 Concerns about Sports Betting and its Impact 20:10 Upcoming Events: Investment Goals and the Psychology of Markets

Episode Summary: In this episode of JSE Direct, Simon Brown delves into the impact of anticipated interest rate cuts and how they may affect various sectors and stocks. He shares his thoughts on potential beneficiaries like consumer stocks, REITs, and companies with high levels of debt. The episode also covers key updates on Nvidia's earnings, Nike's stock valuation, and a new ETF listing by ETFSA. Interest Rate Cuts and Market Impact: Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole Speech: The anticipation of rate cuts as early as September, with an expected reduction of around 75 basis points by the end of the year. Benefiting Sectors: Companies with significant debt, consumer stocks (Mr Price, Foschini, Shoprite), and REITs are likely to benefit from lower interest rates. Sector-Specific Insights: REITs: Discusses the potential for real estate investment trusts like Storage, Spear, and the concerns around office spaces with high vacancy rates. Consumer Stocks: Simon reiterates his positive outlook on consumer-focused companies and the strong performance of used and new car sales, highlighting stocks like CMH and Motus. Stock Analysis: Nvidia: With results due, Simon highlights the market's expectations and the potential for significant movement based on the earnings report. Nvidia | Close 27 aug 24 | Weekly chart Nike: Simon discusses Nike's current valuation, seeing it as a strong buy at its multi-decade support levels, despite its challenges. Nike | Close 27 aug 24 | Weekly chart ETF Updates: ETFSA's New Actively Managed ETF: Introduction of the Balanced Foundation ETF, which is actively managed due to the lack of a specific index and includes a mix of local and foreign equities, bonds, and property. Satrix Nasdaq ETF: The transition from a feeder fund to a standard fund, reducing total expense ratios and offering cost benefits to investors. Housekeeping: No Show Next Week: Simon will be on vacation and the podcast will resume on 12 September. Money Summit: Scheduled for 10 September in Johannesburg with free tickets available using the code "MONEYWEBGEST" at MoneySummit.co.za. Simon Brown * I hold ungeared positions. All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

ETFSA is listing an Actively Managed ETF, The ETFSA Balanced Foundation Prescient AMETF (JSE code: ETFSAB).  Simon spoke with Gareth Stobie from ETFSA about the ETF, the listing process, where it fits in a portfolio and what it will be holding. IPO opens: 26 August 2024 Listing date: 02 September 2024 JSE code: ETFSAB TER: 0.52% ETFSAB

In this landmark 600th episode of JSE Direct, Simon Brown reflects on the podcast's journey from its beginnings as a radio show in 2008 to becoming a leading podcast for market insights. The episode covers a range of topics, from South Africa's local CPI and a strengthening Rand to the surprising twists in the gold market and a mixed bag of corporate earnings. Local Inflation Data: South Africa's CPI has come in better than expected at 4.6%, fueling speculation on whether the next rate cut by the MPC might be more aggressive than anticipated. South Africa CPI | July 2024 Rand Strengthens: The Rand has shown significant strength, dropping below 18 to the dollar, with Simon analyzing the contributing factors, including foreign investment in bonds and a weakening US dollar. Bull Market Sentiment: Simon reaffirms the current bull market, highlighting the JSE's all-time highs and advising listeners to stay invested while cautioning against the risks of sitting on the sidelines. Top40 20 August 2024 | Weekly chart Gold Market Rally: Gold prices have surged above $2,500, driven by central banks' increased purchases and concerns about the US dollar's stability. Simon discusses the potential for further gains in the gold market. Corporate Earnings Recap: Coronation Fund Managers: Special dividend announced but falls short of expectations. CMH*: Despite low liquidity, the stock continues to climb, reflecting the breadth of the bull market. Sasol: Disappointing results with no dividend payout, a situation Simon had previously predicted. Spur Corporation: Strong earnings, signaling improving economic conditions. Simon Brown * I hold ungeared positions. All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order    

Sasol's Struggles: Simon revisits Sasol's recent production and trading updates. Despite some positive news, the company's financials remain grim due to significant write-downs and a challenging pricing environment, especially in the chemical complex. With a forward PE ratio hovering around 3, Simon questions the actual value in Sasol and advises caution, emphasising the importance of waiting for a stock to show signs of recovery before investing. Sasol weekly chart | 13 August 2024 ADvTech's* Solid Performance: Simon provides insights into ADvTech's latest trading update. Despite a voluntary update (not mandated by a 20% variance), the company shows strong growth in earnings per share. He discusses the stock's valuation, historical performance, and why he remains optimistic about its future prospects, even as it trades at a PE ratio of around 15. ADvTech weekly chart | 13 August 2024 Combined Motor Holdings* (CMH): Simon shares his thoughts on CMH, a stock he has held for years. Despite a stagnant price movement over the past three years, the stock offers a solid dividend yield. He discusses the broader consumer environment, the potential impact of reduced interest rates, and why he continues to favour CMH over competitors like Motus. CMH weekly chart | 13 August 2024 Renegen's* Milestone: After a year and a half of delays, Renergen finally starts producing helium. While the stock has seen a recent uptick, Simon highlights the challenges that still lie ahead, including scaling up production and the company's upcoming NASDAQ listing. He also reflects on the broader sentiment in the junior mining sector. Coronation's Active ETFs: Coronation has launched six actively managed ETFs on the JSE, a significant development in the local ETF market. Simon explains the concept of actively managed ETFs and why this move could be a game-changer for both Coronation and the JSE, even if he personally isn't planning to invest in them. Find details here. US Inflation Update: The latest US CPI data shows a slight decrease to 2.9% for July, but core inflation remains elevated. Simon discusses the implications for future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the potential impact on South African monetary policy. Tribute to Brett Duncan: Simon pays tribute to Brett Duncan, a former stockbroker and warrants market leader at Standard Bank, who recently passed away. Brett was a key figure in Simon's early career and played a significant role in the South African warrants market. His passing is a significant loss. Simon Brown * I hold ungeared positions. All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order  

Apple's Financial Performance and Buffett's Decision: Apple's recent financial results showed steady revenue growth across various segments including iPhone, MacBooks, and iPads. Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway reduced its stake in Apple by half, sparking market speculation. The implications of Apple's valuation and Buffett's strategy in maintaining a significant yet reduced position in Apple were discussed. Market Movements in Japan: The dramatic drop in Japan's Nikkei 225 index, which fell nearly 27% from its recent highs, was analyzed. Possible reasons behind the sell-off included the unwinding of the Japanese carry trade and broader market concerns about global economic stability. The role of low liquidity in exacerbating the market decline was highlighted. Nikkei 225 Nedbank's Financial Results: Nedbank reported solid financial results with HEP's up 11% and a near 15% return on equity. Improvements in impairments and concerns over the cost-to-income ratio were noted. The banking index's performance and its implications for Nedbank's stock were discussed. Anglogold Ashanti's* Performance: Anglogold Ashanti's strong production and profitability metrics were reviewed. The importance of holding gold miners and gold ETFs in the current market environment was emphasized. Launch of Ethereum ETFs: The approval of Ethereum ETFs by the US SEC was announced, with eight new ETFs available for trading in New York. The differences between Ethereum's proof-of-stake blockchain and Bitcoin's proof-of-work blockchain were explained. Potential implications for investors and the broader crypto market were discussed. Simon Brown * I hold ungeared positions. All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order  

Jerome Powell's Statement: Rates left unchanged in the US. Possible rate cuts on the table for September. US MPC meeting on 19 September. Data needed: improving inflation and higher unemployment. Oil and Gold Market Update: Brent Crude: Under pressure, signaling weak global demand. Lower highs trend since June 2022. Support at $72.50 and resistance around $88. Brent Oil | 01 August 2024  Gold: Trading near all-time highs. Strong central bank buying. Uncertain targets, but bullish sentiment persists. Gold | 01 August 2024 Potential JSE Delistings: Criteria: Dividend yield > 0, market cap < 5 billion ZAR, NAV price > 100, P/E < 10, and profitable. Initial search yielded 53 stocks, refined criteria (dividend yield > 5%) narrowed it down to 25. Top candidates: African Media Entertainment, Argent, Combined Motor Holdings*, eMedia, Frontier Transport, Home Choice, Mustek, PrimeServe, Transpaco. Shoprite*: Trading at all-time highs. 12% revenue increase, 6.3% like-for-like growth, 5.8% inflation. Successful new store formats (PetScience, Checkers Outdoor, UNIQ Clothing, Little Me). Woolies: Disappointing trading statement. Comparable store sales up 6.9%, inflation at 7%, volume decline. Heps down 14-19%, market expectation miss. RSA Retail Bonds Update: New Rates: Two-year at 8.75%, three-year at 9%, five-year at 10.25%. Rates have been declining since June. Simon Brown * I hold ungeared positions. All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order  

Presidential Vision for Infrastructure Development: The South African President's recent speech emphasised making the country a hub of construction and infrastructure development. The potential for public-private partnerships and the types of infrastructure that might be developed, including roads, energy transmission, and public buildings. Stocks That Could Benefit: Construction Stocks: A detailed look at various construction-related companies and their potential to benefit from the President's infrastructure plans. PPC: Potential benefits from increased construction activity. Murray & Roberts: Despite historical losses, they have a division in infrastructure and renewable power that might benefit. Stefanutti Stocks: Focus on their claim against Eskom, which is crucial for their future. Wilson Bayly Holmes (WBHO): Expected growth, though a significant portion of their revenue comes from Australia. Raubex: Strong performance and solid management, with significant involvement in road construction through Sanral. Afrimat: Supplier of construction materials, benefiting from Sanral and Transnet orders. Reunert: Involvement in industrial cabling and commercial battery storage, critical for new power facilities. Market Insights: Mr Price* Update: Gaining market share and performing well post-elections and during a late-arriving winter. Sasol Production Update: Management's effective handling of controllable factors and slight improvements in Transnet's performance. Kumba Iron Ore: Confirmation of slight improvements in Transnet, echoing Sasol's observations. JSE Listed Construction Stocks | 1 year return | close 23 July 2024 International Market Movements: CrowdStrike* Incident: A significant security update issue affected numerous systems, impacting the stock but not signalling an end for the company. US Small Cap Stocks: Rotation into small caps like those in the Russell 2000 index, offering a cheaper alternative to large-cap tech stocks. Simon Brown wraps up the episode by emphasizing the importance of infrastructure development for South Africa's economy and reiterates his top stock picks to benefit from potential future construction projects: Raubex, Afrimat, and Reunert. He also touches on the potential 3% GDP growth for 2025 and the broader market implications. Simon Brown * I hold ungeared positions. All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

SA GDP Growth Prospects IMF's projection: 0.9% GDP for South Africa this year. Potential factors for growth next year: Reduced load shedding could add 1% to GDP. Two-pot system introduction, expected to inject around 40 billion rand into the economy. Potential rate cuts: half a percent by the end of the year, possibly 1% by mid-next year. Inflation targeting at 4.5%. Optimistic outlook with a 60-70% probability of achieving 3% GDP in 2025. South Africa GDP Delistings and Market Movements Bell and Sasfin delisting announcements. Other potential delisting candidates in the small-cap space. Importance of constructing a portfolio that can benefit from economic growth and potential takeouts. Bell weekly chart Pick n Pay Rights Issue Explanation of the rights issue and its implications. Instructions for shareholders on handling nil paid letters. Simon's perspective on waiting for dust to settle before considering Pick n Pay shares. Today is the last day to trade before Pick n Pay rights issue kicks in. ° If you hold at close tonight you will receive 51.11 rights per 100 PIK shares, code will be PIKN ° You can sell then in market ° Or pay 1596c per each to get a new PIK share ° HAVE to do so by 30 July — Simon Brown (@SimonPB) July 16, 2024   Property Stocks and Income ETFs Analysis of South African property stocks and their recent performance. Attractive yields in local and international income ETFs. Recommendation to explore defensive income stocks and ETFs for potential investments. Find local ETFs here. Interest Rate Outlook MPC and FOMC meetings' impact on interest rates. Simon's forecast on rate cuts in South Africa and the US. Simon Brown * I hold ungeared positions.  

Load Shedding Update Milestone: 100 days of no load shedding by Friday. Factors: New capacity online, Kusile unit 5 (800 MW), upcoming additions from Medupi and Koeberg. Impact: Reduced GDP loss (previously 1.8% of GDP due to load shedding). Positive effect on inflation and economic stability. Winners: Retailers: Shoprite*, Pick n Pay, Spar (less expenditure on diesel). Manufacturers: Invicta, Hudaco (benefit from increased customer stability). Real Estate: REITs with shopping centers, reduced generator use. Interest Rates Jerome Powell's Speech: Potential for a single rate cut in November. Impact on Markets: Minimal immediate impact, with expectations already priced in. Local MPC Meetings: Predictions for rate changes on 19 September and 21 November. Market Insights Mr Price*: Ex-dividend yet the stock price increased, indicating strong sector performance. Tesla Analysis Market Share: Decline in second-quarter sales but maintains a significant market share (~50%). Challenges: Increased competition from other EV manufacturers. Need for cheaper models. Significant share dilution over the years. Stock Performance: Historical highs and current rebound to 231. Future Prospects: Continued relevance in the EV market despite competition. [caption id="attachment_42560" align="aligncenter" width="849"] Tesla weekly chart | 02 July 2024[/caption] SARS Tax-Free Changes Impact: Minor changes affecting pro rata contributions for part-year taxpayers. RSA Retail Savings Bonds Rate Change: Significant drop in 5-year bond rate from 11.5% to 10.5%. Action Required: Reset by the 20th for current holders. The form is here. Simon Brown * I hold ungeared positions. All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order  

Key Takeaways MultiChoice Trading Opportunity: Potential for profit if the Canal+ deal goes through, despite current low stock prices. Futures Trading: Importance of understanding margin, liquidity, and strategy when trading ALSI and ALMI futures. Market Conditions: Current cheap valuation of SA Inc stocks presents opportunities, pending political stability and cabinet announcements. MultiChoice Mis-pricing: Discussion on the 125 Rand mandatory offer from Canal+ for MultiChoice. Current stock trading at 102 Rand due to poor financial results. Analysis of Canal+'s offer document, potential deal completion, and possible trading opportunities. Index Futures - ALSI and ALMI: Detailed overview of trading ALSI (All Share Index) and ALMI (All Share Index Mini) futures. Explanation of points trading, margin requirements, and contract specifics. Tips on trading strategies, including liquidity considerations and handling overnight gaps. Trading as a side hustle, watch the video. Market and Stock Updates: Cabinet Announcement Awaited: Market reactions and fluctuations in the Rand. Individual Stocks: Analysis of Mr. Price*, Foschini Group*, Nedbank, Spur, and CMH*. Banking Sector: Observations on price to book ratios and the overall market valuation of SA Inc stocks. Simon Brown All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order * I hold ungeared positions. dd  

Face-Ripping Rally on the JSE: Surge attributed to the formation of a coalition government involving ANC, DA, and IFP. Top 40 index rose 3.5%, a significant increase not seen since February 2018. The rally, likened to the start of a marathon, suggests potential long-term growth, despite possible volatility. RAND and Resource Stocks: RAND trading under 18, affecting resources positively. Potential for RAND to strengthen further, possibly reaching 17. Coalition Government and Market Impacts: The coalition's stability is uncertain but critical for long-term market confidence. JP Morgan upgraded South Africa from underweight to overweight, signaling positive outlooks. SA Inc Stocks and ETFs: Retailers like Shoprite*, Mr. Price*, Foschini Group*, and Truworths hitting 52-week highs. ETFs for local investors, focusing on SA Inc.. Recommendations include avoiding heavy Rand Hedge dual-listed miners in a strong RAND environment. RSA Retail Savings Bonds: Interest rates for RSA Retail Savings Bonds to drop in July. Current rates: 11.5% for a 5-year bond, expected to decrease to 10.75%. Opportunity to reset bonds before the rate change on the 20th of the month. Inflation and Interest Rates: Local CPI stable at 5.2%, within the target band but aiming for 4.5%. US FOMC holds rates steady, hinting at a possible future rate cut. Prospects for lower local interest rates and their impact on retail stocks and disposable income. Market Opportunities: Interest in retailers and brokers like Purple Group* and PSG Konsult, considering the potential increase in disposable income and trading volumes. Positive long-term outlook, but caution against immediate full investment. Simon Brown * I hold ungeared positions.  

US Inflation: Core Inflation: Came in at 3.4%, lower than the expected 3.5% and previous 3.6%. Impact: Positive market reaction, with US Treasuries under pressure, Rand strengthening, and Dollar weakening. FOMC Outlook: Potential rate cuts anticipated towards the end of the year, possibly in November and December. Company Results: SPAR: Performance: Results were as expected, market responded positively. Issues: Challenges in Switzerland, discontinued operations in Poland, and ongoing SAP implementation issues. Foschini Group: Performance: Strong results, market reacted favorably. Highlights: Good performance in their online platform Bash and general improvement across brands. Foschini Group and Clothing Retailers: Potential growth areas and resistance levels in stock prices. Interesting Stock: Contemporary Amperex Technology Company Limited (CATL): Sector: Battery technology for EVs and corporate solutions. Market Performance: Positive analyst ratings, promising future prospects. Renergen*: Helium Production: Helium is flowing, but further testing is required. Challenges: Significant delays and ongoing testing phases, but progress is being made. Santova: Stock Movement: Changes in buyer and seller dynamics impacting stock price. Insights: Importance of identifying market movers in stock trading. Political Developments: Coalition Talks: Ongoing with potential for an ANC, DA, IFP coalition. Rand Performance: Strengthening in response to political stability and positive US inflation data. [caption id="attachment_42378" align="aligncenter" width="849"] USDZAR | 12 June 2024[/caption] Simon Brown All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order * I hold ungeared positions.

New Two-Pot Pension System: Details on the implementation and implications for retirement savings. Kicks in 1 September 2024 Can take up to R30k immediately, but this will be taxed. Thereafter 30% of contribution go into a savings pot your can take out, it will be taxed. Only use for an emergency, not holidays. Rainbow's Return to JSE: Analysis of Rainbow's re-listing after 17 years. RCL Foods will be unbundling later in June One Rainbow share for every RCL Foods share But is Rainbow the best chicken stock on the JSE? OPEC+ Impact on Oil Prices: Members agreed to cut voluntary production cuts Oil crashed As did Sasol [caption id="attachment_42315" align="aligncenter" width="849"] Brent oil | weekly | Koyfin Q1 GDP Results: Negative Q1 Q2 should be slightly better thanks to reduced load shedding But election will have worried investors. Santova Stock Analysis:  Buyer at 750c Seller at 760c [caption id="attachment_42316" align="aligncenter" width="849"] Santova daily | 06 May 2024 | Koyfin Coalition Talks: ANC is talking with everybody They seem keen on a governmnt of national unity Rand volatile Recent uploads onto Just One Lap Three new Global ETFs from FNB with low TERs The Power of Commodities with 1nvest: Navigating Trends and Unlocking Portfolio Diversity Simon Brown All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order  

  Election Results Impact on Markets Slow ballot counting with three ballots, 18.7% counted. CSIR prediction at 5%: ANC 42%, DA 22%, EFF 9%, MK 14%, Patrick Alliance 2%. Market concerns about ANC forming a coalition. Rand fluctuations: From 18.34 on Tuesday to 18.61 currently. [caption id="attachment_42259" align="aligncenter" width="849"] Rand | 1pm 30 May 2024[/caption] Pepkor Results: 9.5% revenue growth. 24.5% growth in fintech, now 12% of the business. Pepkor sells 7 out of 10 smartphones in South Africa. Woolies (Woolworths) Update: Earnings down 20% for the year ending June. Challenges in the clothing segment, further deterioration in footfall and discretionary spend. Food segment performing better, but overall market reaction negative. Zeda Results: Revenue growth of 19%, HEPs up 12.5%, return on equity at 28.5%. Surprise 50 cents dividend despite previous year-end dividend expectations. BHP Billiton and Anglo American Merger BHP walked away from the Anglo-American takeover proposal. Speculation about potential offers from Rio Tinto or Glencore. Anglo-American's disinvestment plans for De Beers and Anglo Platinum. Market Insights Discussion on Metrofile's challenges with dividend yield falling and pressure on share price. SAB Cap Investments' exit from Metrofile. South African Reserve Bank MPC rate announcement: No rate changes expected. Upcoming central bank meetings: ECB, FOMC, Bank of England, Swiss National Bank. Potential for future rate cuts in South Africa if inflation targets are met. Commodity webcast with Johann Erasmus available on Just One Lap. Insights into gold, PGMs, and copper. Mention of the cheaper gold ETF from 1nvest compared to Absa GLD. Changes in 10X ETFs: Local Dividend Aristocrat and Smart Beta merging into a Top 50 ETF. * I hold ungeared positions.

Nvidia's Financial Performance Nvidia's Q1 Results: Revenue up 262% year-on-year to $26 billion. Net income up 628% year-on-year to $14.9 billion. Gross margins at 78.9%. Stock Split: 10-for-1 stock split set for 7 June. Market Reaction: Stock traded over $1,000 in the aftermarket. Anglo American and BHP Group BHP's Third Offer: Anglo American rejects BHP's third offer. Deal Concerns: Issues with the price and risk of the deal. Next Steps: Extended deadline for BHP's offer to 29 May. Richemont's* Results Richemont's Position: Holding steady in a tough luxury market. Earnings Growth: Expected around 10% over the next few years. Preferred Stock: Richemont favored over LVMH for its focused luxury product line. Copper Market Copper Boom: Strong performance but cautious outlook due to potential price pullbacks. Investment Options: Local ETNs and offshore ETFs available for copper investment. Structured Products Educational Video: Power Hour session on structured products by Kevin Swartz from Standard Bank. Features: Capital protection and enhanced upside. Pick n Pay's Plan Sales Update: For 52 weeks ending 25 February, bleak results expected. Market Reaction: Stock closed 4.5% higher on news of a plan. South African Economic Indicators CPI Inflation: 5.2% for April. Primary Surplus: Revenue exceeded expenditure (excluding interest). Vehicle Sector Analysis Companies Covered: Combined Motor Holdings (CMH), WeBuyCars, Motus, and Zeda. WeBuyCars showed strong sales growth. Motus and CMH had high dividend yields. Zeda focuses on car rentals and mobility as a service. CMH preferred for its consistent performance and dividend yield. Home Building Sector Analysis Companies Covered: Calgro M3* and Balwin. Balwin struggling with higher-priced units. Calgro M3's flexible pricing strategy favored in current market conditions. [caption id="attachment_42201" align="aligncenter" width="849"] Calgro M3 vs Balwin[/caption] Santova Directors' Selling Director Sales: Recent director sales not seen as a significant concern. Market Impact: Director selling viewed as a neutral action. Disclaimer JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with JSE Limited. Views expressed are solely those of the presenter. * I hold ungeared positions. All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order  

Anglo-American vs. BHP Group Anglo-American rejects BHP Group's offer, unveils its own restructuring plan. Anglo-American to divest De Beers, Anglo-American Platinum, coking coal in Western Australia, and reduce spending on UK fertilizer businesses. Focus on high-quality iron ore and copper assets. Discusses shareholder likelihood of accepting Anglo-American's plan over BHP Group's offer. Discussion on lab-grown diamonds and potential impacts on the market. Market Insights Tencent's positive results impact Naspers and Prosus. NASDAQ and S&P close at all-time highs. Analysis of South African market trends, influenced by gold stocks, Naspers, Prosus, Richemont, and Rand strength.   [caption id="attachment_42112" align="aligncenter" width="849"] Top40 close 15 May 2024[/caption] Discussion on upcoming elections' market impact. NHI bill signed, causing sell-off in healthcare stocks. US imposing more tariffs on China, strategic implications discussed. Company Highlights Positive financial results from Calgro M3* and Raubex. Calgro M3 reports good numbers, discusses share buybacks and future prospects.   [caption id="attachment_42113" align="aligncenter" width="849"] Clagro M3 close 15 May 2024[/caption] Raubex impresses with strong financial performance, diversification strategies. Preview of forthcoming corporate earnings announcements and economic data releases. Notable events include Richemont*, Palo Alto, Netcare, Astral, Famous Brands, Coronation, UK and US inflation data, FOMC minutes, and Nvidia results. * I hold ungeared positions. Simon Brown

Introduction: Simon Brown kicks off the episode discussing the current state of the Rand, noting its stability leading up to the elections despite fluctuations. Speculation around ANC's momentum in the polls and potential coalition scenarios. The impact of the dollar's weakness on the Rand's performance. Structured Products: Simon delves into the concept of structured products, which offer capital guarantees and enhanced returns through strategic investment mechanisms like options and bonds. Announcement of an upcoming Power Hour with Standard Bank focusing on structured products. Brief overview of actively managed certificates, also at next weeks Standard Bank Power Hour. FNB's New ETNs: FNB's introduction of new Exchange Traded Notes (ETNs), including a variety of indices and US-listed stocks. Explanation of Compo and Quanto variations, tailored to currency impacts. Highlights of recently launched ETNs, such as Nvidia, Booking Holdings, Eli Lilly, and Palo Alto Networks. Amazon.co.za's Arrival: Simon provides insights into Amazon.co.za's debut in South Africa, discussing initial observations and comparisons with local competitors. Discussion on the potential impact of Amazon's entry on brick-and-mortar retailers and existing online platforms. Exploring Small Caps: Simon poses the question of whether local small caps on the JSE offer value or pose as value traps. Definition and implications of value traps in investments, emphasising the importance of dividends and price appreciation. Insights from John Biccard of Investec on potential post-election performance in small caps. Examination of various small cap stocks, analysing dividend yields, price-to-book ratios, and earnings potential. Simon's perspective on the opportunities and challenges presented by small cap investments, urging caution and strategic analysis. * I hold ungeared positions. All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

Rate Cuts and Economic Outlook Jerome Powell's statement from the FOMC meeting: "Inflation remains too high and the path forward is uncertain." No rate cut was announced at the FOMC meeting. Speculation on upcoming rate cut possibilities and their impact on the economy. Local economic outlook and potential changes due to the upcoming election. BHP Group's Interest in Anglo-American BHP Group's* proposal to buy parts of Anglo-American, leading to market speculation. Complexities of the deal and potential impact on stock prices. Analysis of BHP Group's interest in Anglo-American's assets, particularly in copper Potential effects of the deal on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) and overall market sentiment. Historical context of Anglo-American's significance in South Africa's mining industry. Chinese Market and Economic Data Overview of China's economic challenges and recent data indicating resilience. Discussion on Chinese stock market performance and factors influencing consumer sentiment. Oil Market Dynamics Analysis of recent fluctuations in oil prices and underlying supply-demand dynamics. Impact of US oil production and global economic conditions on oil prices. Implications for South African consumers and petrol prices. Retail Bonds and Sygnia ETF Changes Update on retail bond rates for May and potential changes in June. Sygnia's planned changes to ETFs, including the Fourth Industrial Revolution and Fang AI funds. Clicks Results and Market Analysis Review of Clicks' financial results and market response. Analysis of Clicks' performance in the retail sector and future outlook. Discussion on Clicks' valuation and potential investment opportunities. * I hold ungeared positions.