JSEDirect with Simon Brown

Worldwide Markets – Episode 659 Show Notes "It's Been a Year… But Markets Loved It"

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Worldwide Markets — Episode 657 (19 November 2025)

Worldwide Markets – Episode 656 (12 November) Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets and Shyft – the global money app that puts travel, shopping, payments and investments in the palm of your hand

🌠Worldwide Markets Ep. 646 – 3 September 2025 ðŸŽ™ï¸ Hosted by Simon Brown Powered by Standard Bank & Shyft, the global money app ðŸ'³ðŸŒ 📈 Key Topics This Week 🌠Emerging Markets: 20 Years of Poor Returns EM ETFs have underperformed vs. the US and gold 20-year CAGR: 📊 NASDAQ: +1,400% (14.5% CAGR) 🟡 Gold: +700% (10.9% CAGR) 🇺🇸 S&P 500: +440% (8.7% CAGR) 🌠Emerging Markets: +193% (5.5% CAGR) BRIC dream (Brazil, Russia, India, China) never delivered ðŸ'­ Headwinds: financial crises, currency depreciation ðŸ'¸, weaker governance 📉 🟡 Gold & ⚪ Silver Running Gold futures hit $3,560/oz 🚀 Central banks now hold more gold than US Treasuries Silver back above $40, near 2011 highs Stagflation worries (low growth, high inflation, debt) → gold demand surges Gold weekly chart | 02 September 2025 ðŸ›' Shoprite* Results & 60/60 Growth Checkers 60/60 delivered R18.9bn revenue ðŸŽðŸ“¦ That's nearly 20% of Checkers' sales & close to Pick n Pay's market cap Strong results, inflation at just 2.3% ✅ Stock price up ~5% 🚗 Record August Vehicle Sales 51,880 units sold, highest since Oct 2019 Brands leading: 🚙 Toyota (13k+) 🚗 Suzuki (~6.5k) 🇨🇳 Rising share from Chinese brands (GWM, Chery, JAC) Trend: consumers keeping cars longer, turning to cheaper imports ðŸ·ï¸ 🧪 ASP Isotopes JSE Listing Listed ahead of Renergen* takeover Local pricing looks wildly inflated at R1,100 vs. realistic ~R165 📉 Very thin volumes; caution urged âš ï¸ ðŸŒ Geopolitics: New World Order India 🤠Russia 🤠China meeting – cooperation on energy, fertilizers, space & security Growing shift away from USD towards RMB in oil settlement US power not gone yet, but cracks in global dominance showing ðŸ›ï¸ 🔑 Takeaways EM equities have disappointed; US tech dominance continues ðŸ'» Gold remains a hedge in uncertain times 🟡 Shoprite Sixty60 is now a R20bn business 🚚 Car sales at record highs, boosted by affordable Chinese brands 🚘 Watch out for weird valuations in new listings 👀 Geopolitics shifting – 2025 could be a turning point 🌠📌 Next week's episode will be late – Simon's at LeaderX on Tuesday. Come say hi if you're there! 🙌 Simon Brown * I hold ungeared positions. All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

Simon's on holiday in sunny Durban

The Year So Far

This week, Simon Brown unpacks the numbers behind a recovering South African consumer, an attractive new renewable energy listing, and the latest moves in platinum group metals (PGMs). Plus, CrowdStrike's results, Omnia's cash pile (and SARS headache), and what falling bond yields mean for SA. In this episode:

Simon has been doing a key note address over the last week and in this weeks podcast he takes a slightly different tack to what he usually presents. This time he is delivery his key note. He looks back over almost forty years of market crises that he's invested through. He shares the lessons he learnt, what caused the crisis and what the response was. This includes; 1987, EM Tigers of 1998, the DotCom bust in 2000, Global Financial Crisis of 2008/9, the 2020 pandemic and finally the 2025 Trump tariff crisis.

SARB inflation target

Gold Pullback in Focus Gold surged to $3,500 before a sharp pullback to $3,321. Simon breaks down what caused the spike — including comments from Trump about Powell and rate cuts. Weekly chart shows potential kangaroo tail reversal — possible zone to watch: $2,800–$3,000. Gold | Weekly | 23 April 2025 Trump, Powell & IMF Forecast Downgrades Trump critiques Powell and Fed policy while possibly setting up a scapegoat. IMF cuts global growth forecasts from 3.2% to 2.8%. South Africa's expected GDP is now at 1% — far below Treasury's 1.9% target. Rare Earths: Not So Rare, Still Strategic China's dominance in rare earths: 69% production, 90% processing. Simon looks at the VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Metals ETF (REMX) as a thematic play. Pros & cons of investing in rare earths — not fully sold on the ETF himself. Flashback: 5 Years Since Negative Oil Remember April 2020? Oil went negative (-$40.32)! Breakdown of why it happened (physical settlement, lack of storage). One of the wildest moments in market history. 21 April 2020 | WTO goes negative New Battery Tech from China's CATL Sodium-ion batteries could rival lithium: cheaper, safer, fast-charging. CATL is profitable and pays a dividend, but listed in Shenzhen, making access tricky. Aspen's R2 Billion Hit Brief mention of Aspen's contract dispute and loss. Lack of transparency continues to damage trust in management. Simon Brown * I hold ungeared positions. All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order    

Simon Brown chats with Glynn Allen from Shyft Global on the history of the app and the recent introduction of JSE shares and a look ahead to new features.

  S&P 500 Bounce? After a rough start, Monday's trading saw a small recovery. But with Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff announcements looming, markets could be in for more volatility. Budget Vote Approaches: The ANC lacks votes to pass the postponed budget, with opposition parties like MK and EFF holding out. Political and economic uncertainty remains high. Commodities on a Quiet Rally: Gold (+19.5%), Copper (+26.5%), and Rhodium (+24.5%) lead the way, while oil and aluminium lag. The CRB Index is up 5.4% year-to-date. Atlanta Fed GDP Now Update: Q1 GDP estimate revised to -0.5% from -2.8%. Adjustments for gold trade data make the outlook slightly less dire. Amazon at a Discount? Stock down 20% from its highs, with a historically low P/E ratio of 34. Analysts see upside potential. Amazon | Weekly Chat | 31 March 2025 Johnson & Johnson's Dividend Appeal: Trading near $165, with a potential drop to $150 making its 3% yield even more attractive. Johnson & Johnson | Weekly Chat | 31 March 2025 New ETNs on the JSE: Nvidia, Palantir, Novo Nordisk, and more available via FNB, offering exposure to top global stocks with local accessibility. Simon Brown * I hold ungeared positions. All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order 00:00 Market Overview and Economic Indicators 03:09 US Tariff Implications and Market Reactions 05:45 Commodities Performance and Economic Impact 09:03 Stock Analysis: Amazon's Market Position 12:00 Stock Analysis: Johnson & Johnson's Stability 14:38 Investment Strategies and Innovations  

Education Stocks: Winners and Losers Stadio: Strong performance with double-digit growth and 50,000+ learners. Benefiting from a shortage of university spaces and the struggles at UNISA. Potential for further growth through distance learning and university status. ADvTech*: Long-term holding with solid but not as aggressive growth. Strong presence in tertiary education and schools. Expansion into East Africa showing promise. Curro: Disappointing results with flat learner numbers and write-downs on buildings. Struggles may be due to internal issues or broader economic pressures on lower-income consumers. Commodity Movers: Copper & Rhodium Copper: Near all-time highs due to demand from EVs, data centers, and energy transition. Companies like BHP*, Anglo, and Rio ramping up production. Simon is playing the copper trade through BHP Group. Copper | Weekly | 25 March 2025 Rhodium: Seeing a price recovery after a prolonged downturn. Benefiting PGM miners, though still far from peak levels. Platinum & Palladium: Relatively stable within established price ranges. BYD's Breakthrough in Battery Tech BYD claims a five-minute charge for 400 km range, setting a new benchmark for EVs. Outpacing Tesla and other competitors in rapid-charging efficiency. Dominating the affordable EV space with sub-$10,000 models. Tesla's Market Share Decline in Europe Tesla's share of the European BEV market dropped from 21% to 9.6%. Competitive pricing from BYD and lack of Tesla model updates. CEO Elon Musk's political involvement potentially affecting brand perception. Remgro: Growing Discount to NAV Reported net asset value (NAV) of R276.89, but share price only R155. The discount to NAV is reaching extreme levels. Historically, Remgro traded at a much smaller discount, raising questions about potential revaluation. Simon Brown * I hold ungeared positions. All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order 00:00 Market Overview and Education Stocks 06:51 Commodities: Copper and Rhodium Insights 13:34 Electric Vehicle Market Dynamics 18:02 Remgro's Financial Performance and Valuation Insights    

  Market Overview: Top 40 Index: Hit an all-time high of 82,378, currently at 81,800. SA markets remain strong despite a US market selloff. Top40 | Weekly | 18 March 2025 Gold: Broke $3,000 for the first time last week, currently around $3,030. Continues to rise amid geopolitical uncertainties. Gold | Weekly | 19 March 2025 Rand: Trading at 18.07, briefly touching 18.0088 earlier. Dollar weakness driving strength, with a target level of 17.80. Key Market Insights: Gold as a Portfolio Hedge: Maintains a 6-7% weighting in portfolio. Recent purchase at $2,865 via GLD ETF in New York. Potential buy zones: $2,800 and $2,850. Dollar Index Trends: Initially targeted 104, broke through to 101. Could drive the Rand towards 17.80. Global Uncertainty & Market Reactions: European tariffs and Ukraine war concerns. Trump-Putin meeting adds to geopolitical tensions. Elevated US market valuations suggest exploring Europe ETFs. Investment Strategies: AI Participation Note by Standard Bank: Tracks the S&P Kensho AI Index. Two options: 100% Capital Protection - Minimum investment of R25,000, capital secured, potential upside. Capital at Risk with 140% Participation Rate - Higher returns if index rises, but losses if it drops more than 40%. Open for investment until March 28, 2025. Renergen* Helium Production Milestone: Finally delivered helium after years of delays. Stock surged from R3 to R9.30, but challenges remain. Phase 2 expansion and NASDAQ listing pending. Retail investors remain cautious due to past delays. Macroeconomic Outlook: Atlanta Fed GDP Now Forecast: Predicts Q1 GDP contraction of -2.1%. Economic slowdown concerns intensifying. Upcoming Rate Decisions: US Fed (FOMC): Unlikely to cut rates. SA Reserve Bank (MPC): Potential space for a rate cut. Simon Brown * I hold ungeared positions. All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order 00:00 Market Overview and Key Movements 05:47 Gold and Rand Dynamics 12:08 Investment Opportunities in AI 17:43 Renigen's Helium Production and Challenges 20:06 Budget Insights and Economic Outlook    

  The Atlanta Fed's GDP Forecast The Atlanta Fed GDPNow predicts a -2.4% GDP contraction for Q1 2025. Market uncertainty due to tariffs and economic policy concerns. Corporate travel and consumer bookings showing signs of weakness as Delta Airlines downgrades their expectations from mid January. Market Reactions and Sell-Offs Nasdaq and S&P had their worst single-day drops since 2022. Major stocks like Nvidia, ASML, and CrowdStrike seeing significant declines. Bitcoin at $81,000 amid broader market volatility. Europe as a Potential Investment Opportunity Europe's economic stimulus: Germany announces a €500B package. ETFs to consider: EURO STOXX 50 (SYGEU) vs. MSCI Europe Industrial Sector. Potential for growth in industrial and defense sectors. Euro Stoxx 50 | Weekly | 12 March 2025 Just One Lap Turns 14 Founded in 2011 to provide online financial education. Reflection on the platform's growth and community support. South African Budget Review Possible VAT increase; lack of innovative fiscal strategies. Previous reliance on gold reserves for financial stability. Discussion on potential economic impacts. HomeChoice International Results Revenue up 21%, HEPS up 27%, dividend up 17%. Expanding into fintech with PayJustNow and FinChoice. Liquidity concerns despite strong financial performance. Two-Pot Retirement Withdrawals - Where Did the Money Go? Initial claims suggested debt repayment, but data suggests spending. Increased vehicle sales, hospitality sector growth (e.g., Spur, Sun International). Implications for long-term financial planning. Simon Brown * I hold ungeared positions. All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order 00:00 Economic Outlook: Recession Predictions and Market Reactions 09:07 Investing in Europe: Opportunities and ETFs 12:07 Celebrating 14 Years of Just One Lap 13:20 Budget Analysis: VAT Increase and Economic Innovation 15:09 Home Choice International: Business Performance and Liquidity Challenges 18:19 Consumer Spending Trends: Where Did the Money Go?  

Anglo-American's Cash Raid on Anglo-Platinum Anglo-American's decision to unbundle its stake in Anglo-Platinum raises concerns. Declaring a special dividend of R59 per share wipes out the company's entire R17.6 billion cash reserves. Implications for investors: selling pressure expected as shares land in new brokerage accounts. China's Tech Revival? The appearance of Jack Ma and Xi Jinping together could mark a softening stance toward tech companies. Alibaba partners with Apple, integrating its AI into Apple's ecosystem. Is China reopening the door for its tech giants? Bull Market Momentum Global indices continue to hit all-time highs, with AI and tech stocks leading the charge. Not just tech: European and Asian markets show strength. Are valuations stretched, or is there more room to run? Simon Brown * I hold ungeared positions. All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order    

Market Updates & Analysis: Sasol Reversal Pattern? – Examining Sasol's technical setup and the significance of a ‘kangaroo tail' pattern. Rand Stability Amid Trump's Threats – Despite geopolitical concerns, the rand remains steady. Top 40 at All-Time Highs – Market momentum and investor confidence. South Africa's Budget Speech (Wednesday, 2 PM SAST) Revenue shortfalls and potential tax bracket adjustments Universal Basic Income and National Health Insurance funding discussion Expectations for the fiscal policy outlook Stock & Sector Insights: Telkom: Revenue up 0.9%, in a turnaround phase, but Simon remains skeptical about telcos. Santam: Strong earnings growth (40-60% increase in HEPS), but insurance sector risks remain. Shoprite*: Consumer stock pullback; long-term bullish outlook despite short-term pressure. China Stocks & ETFs: Alibaba up 40% on Apple collaboration Satrix China ETF – is it time to reconsider investing in China? General sentiment split between ‘China is uninvestable' vs. ‘China has potential' Bond Market Watch: SA Bonds Showing Volatility: A significant move in bond yields post-Trump comments, raising concerns about borrowing costs. Simon Brown * I hold ungeared positions. All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order  

  Trump Trade Tariffs & Global Market Impact: Initial tariffs of 10% (China) and 25% (Canada, Mexico) announced but later revised. U.S.-Canada relations strained, with Warren Buffett warning of reputational damage. Global negotiation shifts—China, Russia, and Europe eye opportunities. Continued U.S.-China trade tensions, including semiconductor restrictions and rare earth tariffs. Market volatility expected; long-term investment strategies recommended. Investment Strategies Amid Uncertainty: Volatility is high—avoid panic selling. Keep cash reserves for opportunities (buy the dip cautiously). Long-term focus: presidential terms are temporary, investments span decades. Interest Rate Decisions & Market Reactions: Bank of England expected to cut rates. U.S. Fed Chair Jerome Powell pauses rate hikes due to inflation concerns. South Africa's MPC cuts rates, prime now at 11%. Analysts predict one to two more rate cuts in 2024. Gold Market Strength & Outlook: Gold price hovering near $2,900, with potential to break $3,000. Supply constraints—minimal new gold mining projects. Strong central bank purchases—1,000+ tons bought in 2023. Retail ETF inflows return after three years of outflows. Gold miners like Harmony, AngloGold*, and Pan African positioned well. Gold weekly | 06 February 2025 Retail Sector & Consumer Spending: Mixed trading updates: Pick n Pay and Boxer show early turnaround signs. Modest growth in TFG, Mr. Price*, and Clicks; Shoprite* remains strong. Cautious consumer spending patterns persist. Two-Pot Retirement System: Initial withdrawals lower than expected—around R50 billion. Future ongoing withdrawals expected as a structural component in SA's economy. Vehicle Sales Trends: January sales at 46,400—stronger than expected. Used car market expanding, Chinese brands gaining traction. Auto sector investment options: CMH*, Motus, and Zeda. Such African monthly vehicle sales Sasol's Ongoing Struggles: Six-month trading update—earnings per share around R14. Continual asset write-downs and operational challenges. PE ratio suggests market pricing for bankruptcy, but survival likely. No clear turnaround signals yet—investors should wait for stronger confirmation. Simon Brown * I hold ungeared positions. All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order 00:00 Market Overview and Podcast Introduction 01:10 Trump Tariffs and Global Trade Dynamics 06:25 Interest Rates and Economic Implications 10:02 Gold Market Trends and Predictions 12:51 Retail Sector Performance and Consumer Behavior 14:17 Vehicle Sales Insights and Market Trends 16:40 Sasol's Financial Challenges and Future Outlook    

The Cristal Challenge runs until October, with participants picking five local stocks (no ETFs or sub-20c stocks) to hold through the year. Simon's picks include a mix of stable “banker” stocks and speculative plays: Richemont*: High-end luxury giant with strong fundamentals and global market appeal despite challenges in China. Trading near R3,500, with long-term potential boosted by luxury market recovery and stable global demand. Shoprite*: Dominant grocery retailer in South Africa, benefiting from market share growth and diversified business lines like 60/60 delivery. A steady performer with consistent earnings growth and market dominance, trading at a PE of 24. ADvTech*: Education sector leader, well-positioned to meet growing private schooling and tertiary education demands. Education giant trading below its historical PE average, supported by asset-light growth strategies. Calgro M3*: Affordable housing developer, thriving on demand for low-to-mid-income housing in South Africa. Value pick with a PE below 3 and a focus on affordable housing, addressing a critical market need. Purple Group*: Innovator behind EasyEquities, leveraging platform fees and expanded product offerings to drive revenue growth. Growth potential through EasyEquities' platform fees, rising customer base, and additional financial products. Simon Brown * I hold ungeared positions. All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order  

TSMC's Record-Breaking Results Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) hit $26 billion in quarterly revenue. A strong contender in the AI supply chain with growing global operations. Gold: Continuing the Bull Run Gold remains a strong investment pick for Simon, with a potential to hit $3,000/oz. Gold | Weekly | 21 January 2025 Brent Crude Oil Concerns Rising oil prices could hurt both the global and South African economies. Trump Meme Coins & Meme Coin Mania Trump and Melania meme coins: Novelty or nonsense? Simon unpacks the hype. Grinrod & Mozambique Challenges Operational risks in Mozambique but potential opportunities with Transnet's private rail plans. Sasol: A Case of Caution Chemical spin-offs and high oil prices spark discussion, but Simon isn't convinced to buy. Cristal  Challenge Simon's picks for the Cristal  Crystal Challenge: Shoprite*, Purple Group*, ADvtTch*, Calgro M3*, and Richemont*. Simon Brown * I hold ungeared positions. All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order  

For the twelfth year in a row Marc Ashton, Keith McLachlan & Simon Brown get together and make three predictions each for year ahead. They then also give their expectations for the local Top40 index and the Rand against the US$. But first every year they start by scoring their previous year predictions to keep things real and honest.

In the final show of the year Simon looks back at the many local and offshore winners (and a few losers) of 2024. There have been some excellent returns, but will they carry on into 2025?

  Boxer IPO Hits the Market Boxer* (JSE code will be BOX) lists on 28 November, debuting at R54/share after a highly oversubscribed IPO. Strategies discussed for trading or investing in Boxer shares, including buying through Pick n Pay shares. Key takeaway: Patience is key; wait for potential pullbacks. Two-Pot Retirement Savings and Market Impact Early evidence of consumer spending from the two-pot retirement system. Stocks like Mr. Price*, Pepkor, and Keith McLachlan's picks (e.g., Afrimat, Netcare) reviewed as beneficiaries. Satrix 40 ETF Turns 24 Launched in 2000, the Satrix 40 has delivered an annualized return of 11.3%. Impact: Introduced passive investing and slashed fees for South African investors. Bitcoin's Psychological Barrier at $100,000 Bitcoin fell short of the $100K milestone, retracing to around $93K. Analysis of big psychological levels in markets and what this means for Bitcoin's momentum. Bitcoin | Weekly | 27 November 2024 Anglo-Platinum Share Sale Anglo-American reduces its stake in Anglo-Platinum, selling at cycle lows. Discussion on PGM market challenges and future outlook. Trump's Proposed Tariffs Announced 10% tariffs on all Chinese imports and 25% on goods from Mexico and Canada. Potential economic implications and geopolitical fallout analysed. Rand, DXY, and Gold The Rand holds surprisingly well despite DXY strength; predictions for 2024 suggest potential recovery. Gold price fluctuations and long-term bullish outlook. US$ Index (DXY) | Weekly | 27 November 2024 Commodity Spotlight: Coffee and Cocoa Coffee prices hit 20-year highs due to Brazilian droughts, impacting consumer costs. Cocoa prices stabilise after a surge, with Nestlé and soft commodity ETFs in focus. Super Group and SG Fleet Deal SG Fleet receives a buyout offer, boosting share prices. Opportunities in second-tier stocks like Invicta and Hudaco highlighted for a potentially improving economic environment. MPC Update South African Reserve Bank increases rates by 0.25%, citing risks from core inflation and external pressures. Simon Brown * I hold ungeared positions. All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order 00:00 Market Overview and Boxer IPO Insights 03:08 Two-Pot Money and Consumer Spending Trends 06:03 Satrix 40: A 24-Year Retrospective 08:51 Bitcoin's Psychological Barriers and Market Sentiment 11:40 Anglo-American's Strategic Moves and Market Reactions 14:58 Commodity Prices: Coffee and Cocoa Trends 17:49 Monetary Policy Committee Decisions and Economic Outlook jj