Podcasts about time the real story

In this episode, Ivan takes us through his incredible journey from humble beginnings to becoming one of the Midwest's top multifamily owners, managers, and syndicators. As the Founder and CEO of The BAM Companies, Ivan has raised nearly $400 million in equity and managed over $1.33 billion in transaction volume.With his firm now recognized as a six time Inc5000 honoree, Ivan shares the strategies that have fueled his success, including insights into equity finance, acquisitions, and company strategy. Whether you are a seasoned investor or just getting started, Ivan's story offers invaluable lessons in scaling a real estate portfolio, achieving operational excellence, and staying focused on long-term goals.Show Highlights:✅01:35 – Who is Ivan?✅08:09 – Market investing✅15:27 – Syndication vs fund✅26:10 – Market supply✅34:13 – The 4 toppings✅38:01 – Final thoughts

Inflation continues to rise. Interest rates are at 30-year highs. Gold is at all-time highs. There's geopolitical conflict and confusion everywhere. Yet most global equity markets continue to go up. Where do you turn to get rational analysis, advice, or opinions? Today's guest brings three decades of experience to the equation. Charles Heenan is the Co-Investment Director at Kennox Asset Management. He's adopted a distinct value approach to global investing over the last 30 years. He shares some insight into global investing (and why it's important to diversify internationally) in this episode of UPThinking Finance™! You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...Learn more about Charles' equity firm: Kennox [2:27] How things have evolved since the 90s [9:07] A perspective from the other side of the ocean [12:13] The impact of global debt on global economies [15:23]Diversification and trusting the process [20:59] The Kennox approach to global investing [25:55] Many investments require patience [31:32]How Kennox conducts global research [40:43] How instinct plays a role in decision-making [43:25] Charles Heenan is not affiliated with or endorsed by LPL Financial or Capital Investment Advisers.Securities and Advisory services offered through LPL Financial. A registered investment advisor. Member FINRA & SIPC.The financial professionals associated with LPL Financial may discuss and/or transact business only with residents of the states in which they are properly registered or licensed. No offers may be made or accepted from any resident of any other state. Resources & People MentionedThe Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest by Edward ChancellorConnect With Charles Heenanhttps://kennox.co.uk/Connect with Emerson FerschCapital Investment AdvisersOn LinkedInSubscribe to Upthinking FinanceAudio Production and Show Notes by - PODCAST FAST TRACK

In this episode, Nik is joined by Jack Farley, host of the Forward Guidance podcast. Jack and Nik discuss their favorite books on finance and global macroeconomics. From banking history to financial markets to science fiction, Jack discusses what he loved about each book and inquires about Nik's background as a money markets and Treasury repo trader. Books and authors mentioned during this recording: Lords of Finance by Liaquat Ahamed Debt: The First 5000 Years by David Graeber Reminiscences of a Stock Operator by Edwin Lefèvre New York 2140 by Kim Stanley Robinson The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest by Edward Chancellor When Genius Failed by Roger Lowenstein Adam Tooze Bethany McLean Barry J. Eichengreen The Bitcoin Layer is brought to you by River. Visit http://River.com/TBL and earn up to $100 in bonus Bitcoin when you buy. Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on YouTube. Subscribe to TBL's research letter: https://thebitcoinlayer.com/subscribe Follow TBL on X: https://twitter.com/TheBitcoinLayer Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on your favorite podcast platform. Use code TBLYT10 for 10% off all The Bitcoin Layer Merch at http://TheBitcoinLayer.com/merch Contribute to The Bitcoin Layer via Lightning Network: thebitcoinlayer@zbd.gg The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice. Block Height 840573 #TheBitcoinLayer Contribute to The Bitcoin Layer via Lightning Network: thebitcoinlayer@zbd.gg Nik Bhatia's Twitter: https://twitter.com/timevalueofbtc Research Associate Joe Consorti's Twitter: https://twitter.com/JoeConsorti Creative Director Matthew Ball's Twitter: https://twitter.com/matthewrball #TheBitcoinLayer #NikBhatia #FinanceBooks #MacroEconomics #BankingHistory #FinancialMarkets #ScienceFictionBooks #BookRecommendations #FinancialLiterature #GlobalEconomics #MoneyMarkets #TreasuryRepo #PodcastDiscussion #BookLovers #FinancialEducation #InvestmentBooks #EconomicReading #FinancialPodcast #BookTalk #FinancePodcast #FinancialAnalysis #EconomicInsights #InvestmentReading #MarketAnalysis #BookReviews #FinancialPodcasting #MacroAnalysis #InvestmentTips #EconomicBooks #FinancialKnowledge #ReadingList #InvestorEducation #FinancePodcasts #EconomicDiscussion #FinanceCommunity #BookDiscussion #EconomicPodcasts #FinancialInnovation #MarketTrends #Bloomberg #Analysis #Charts #Tradingview #InvestmentStrategy #MarketWatch #StockMarket #PassiveInvesting #IndexFunds #FinancialMarkets #MarketWatch #RiverBitcoin #FreeMarket #FreeMarkets #Markets #USTreasury #TreasuryBills #BalanceSheet #FED #Debt #Inflation #Statistic #Rates #Interest #Asset #Bitcoin #Dollar #Sats #BTC #Market #Currency #Crypto #Analysis #Investment #News #Finance #Education #Blockchain #Mining #BitcoinMining #macroSubscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on Soundwise

In this special episode of Behind the Memo, Howard Marks is joined by journalist and financial historian Edward Chancellor to discuss ideas from Howard's recent memo, Easy Money, which was inspired by Edward's book, The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest. They explore the history of interest rates, the profound impact they've had on financial markets, and the potential dangers of keeping them too low.You can listen to "Easy Money" in the prior episode in this feed.

Joshua B. Sterling is a Partner at Jones Day where he represents financial services, energy, fintech, agriculture and other companies in matters before the CFTC, the SEC, and other financial regulators. A former senior regulator, Josh was previously the Director of the CFTC's Market Participants Division. In that role, he oversaw the 3,300 financial firms worldwide registered with the CFTC to participate in the global derivatives markets.  Show highlights: [1:00] Josh's introduction to Bitcoin [5:00] BitMEX case [11:00] 2008 financial crisis [16:00] Finance and Web3 [20:00] Role of CFTC in crypto [25:00] Role of the SEC [29:00] How to improve the SEC's results & much more. We also discuss the book The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest. Disclaimer: Jacob Robinson and his guests are not your lawyer. Nothing herein or mentioned on the Law of Code podcast should be construed as legal advice. The material published is intended for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only. Please seek the advice of counsel, and do not apply any of the generalized material to your individual facts or circumstances without speaking to an attorney.

In his latest memo, Howard Marks considers what financial history can teach us about periods of easy money, the impact they have on investor behavior, and what happens when they end. He analyzes macroeconomic trends using insights from Edward Chancellor's latest book The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest to argue that we're unlikely to soon see the return of the permissive investment climate that prevailed in recent decades.The memo is read by LJ Ganser.You can read the memo here (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/easy-money).

Is finance really just the economics of time and risk? How do you price things like time and risk?Edward Chancellor is a columnist with Reuters and is the author of the book, The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest, which delves into the history of lending and the interest rates that followed for the last five millennia. Edward and Greg discuss the history of interest and its connections to Greek philosophy, the potential problems with centralized banking, and financial repression in China and the US. *unSILOed Podcast is produced by University FM.*Episode Quotes:The overlooked aspects of monetary policy and central planning08:05: What I think happened is you have the support amongst some neoclassical economists for Hayek's ideas relating to the economy as spontaneous, complex, emergent order that is difficult to control centrally. And yet, at the same time, no one has any problem with taking the most important price in the system, the one that affects everything, namely the interest rate. And so it's somehow perfectly acceptable to tweak that for whatever your end.Insights from a finance journalist51:34: One of the things I've discovered about writing about finance for nearly 30 years is that it's hardly worth having new ideas, because the conservatism of the world is so great that it's very hard to get them taken up. So I prefer to describe, rather than create, solutions.Unraveling the complexity between the relationship between inflation and interest42:37: The relationship between inflation and interest is not as straightforward as people surmise. If a low-interest rate encourages leverage, then the more leverage you have, the greater the leverage tottering over an individual household or an economy as a whole, and the more potential deflation pressure there is.What's an inevitable feature of a market-based system?13:23: The notion that a transitional rise in unemployment may actually be useful is complete heresy and is seen as being a sort of strange, perverted form of sadism. Which I didn't think it was. So it's an inevitable feature of a capitalist or market-based system that you'd have these periods of boom and bust.Show Links:Recommended Resources:Denationalisation of Money by Friedrich A. Von HayekMilton FriedmanJohn Maynard KeynesClément JuglarThe Nature and Necessity of Interest by Gustav CasselEugen von Böhm-BawerkIrving FisherGuest Profile:Author Page at ReutersSpeaker's Profile on Chartwell SpeakersEdward Chancellor's Website Edward Chancellor on LinkedInEdward Chancellor on XHis Work:The Price of Time: The Real Story of InterestDevil Take the Hindmost: A History of Financial Speculation

Investing has become a delicate balance between opportunity and risk. The potential for substantial gains is undoubtedly enticing, but the inherent volatility and unpredictability can be unnerving. Furthermore, the emotional rollercoaster that accompanies market volatility is another challenge.  In this episode, Rusty and Robyn talk with DeFred "Fritz" Folts. Fritz has over 40 years of experience in the investment management industry. He was one of the co-founders of 3EDGE Asset Management, serving as the Chief Investment Strategist and member of the Investment Committee. Before 3EDGE, Fritz was one of the first team members at Windward Investment Management, a pioneer in constructing globally diversified portfolios utilizing index Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs).  As an ETF strategist, Fritz talks to Rusty and Robyn about multi-asset investing and how to do it well. He also speaks about managing investment risk and his market outlook for multiple asset classes. Key Takeaways [03:06] - The experience Fritz has in managing investments. [04:43] - 3EDGE Asset Management's investment approach and philosophy. [07:14] - How 3EDGE incorporates investor psychology into their model. [09:03] - How advisors use the 3EDGE strategies on behalf of their clients. [11:41] - What 3EDGE's tactical multi-asset approach looks like. [14:40] - Why 3EDGE focuses so much on managing investment risk. [17:01] - Differences between total return and ESG strategies. [19:55] - 3EDGE's market outlook for all asset classes, including crypto. [28:01] - Fritz's take on how artificial intelligence could impact investment management. [30:10] - Fritz's favorite investment idea. [31:44] - How Fritz remains physically and mentally healthy to perform well. [35:13] - The people for whom Fritz is professionally grateful. [36:52] - Fritz's recommendations for content. Quotes [05:54] - "Markets are not completely random. They're driven by the cause-and-effect relationships that impact equities, bonds, commodities, and currencies across the globe. And these relationships are interrelated." ~ DeFred "Fritz" Folts [06:37] - "There's more risk out there than people understand. So, our approach to managing that risk is to be tactical, meaning we make changes to the portfolio when our investment outlook changes and are always globally diversified." ~ DeFred "Fritz" Folts [15:40] - "It's really difficult to hang in there as an investor when you're watching your portfolio and your net worth decline. Having to live through that is hard." ~ DeFred "Fritz" Folts Links  DeFred "Fritz" Folts on LinkedIn Fritz Folts on Twitter 3EDGE Asset Management 3EDGE Asset Management on YouTube 3EDGE Orion Spotlight Paper Fritz Folts' Recommended Reads Your Saving Grace by Steve Miller Band Stephen Cucchiaro Windhaven Investment Management Charles Schwab The Origin of Wealth by Eric Beinhocker The Fed Unbound by Lev Menand The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest Meditations by Marcus Aurelius The Obstacle Is the Way by Ryan Holiday The Artist Behind Fritz's Cow Painting Connect with our hosts Rusty Vanneman Robyn Murray Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts 1640-OPS-6/15/2023

Edward Chancellor, distinguished investor, financial historian, and author, joins Forward Guidance to discuss his latest book “The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest.” Chancellor shares with host Jack Farley and Joseph Wang (“Fed Guy”) how artificially low interest rates can distort markets and foment bubbles.“The Price of Time”: https://www.amazon.com/Price-Time-Real-Story-Interest/dp/0802160069 ____ Follow Edward Chancellor on Twitter https://twitter.com/chancellor_e?lang=en Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Joseph Wang's YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/@Fedguy12/featured Joseph Wang's writings can be found at https://fedguy.com/ ____ Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can't-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:31) How Ultra-Low Interest Rates Cause Asset Bubbles (11:03) The History Of The Gold Standard (18:54) Deflation Isn't Always Bad (30:06) Negative Interest Rates Are A Tax On Capital (37:17) Low-Rates Boost Venture Capital and Private Equity (45:27) I'm Fairly Dubious About Cryptos (46:44) Unicorns and Zombies (54:20) Elite Overproduction (57:39) How High Can Interest Rates Go? ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Join FEG's Head of Research Greg Dowling as he chats with Edward Chancellor, financial historian, financial journalist, investment strategist, former investment professional, and best-selling author of Devil Take the Hindmost. Ed's most recent book, The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest Rates details the history of interest rates from ancient times to today, examining financial bubbles throughout history and the investor behaviors that fed them to conclude once and for all that “there is nothing new under the sun.”“…These really are the craziest financial markets, as far as I can see in my reading of history, that have ever been witnessed.” - Edward ChancellorEd talks about the relationship between low interest rates and speculation, how interest has thrived across history, and his take on the Fed's monetary policies over the last 40 years. He also shares his thoughts on a “digital Chicago plan” as a means to rein in inflation and prevent bank runs. Make sure you tune in for this fascinating and highly educational episode!You can find every episode of FEG Insight Bridge podcasts in one place and sign up to receive our other publications here.

"15 years ago, our central bankers made a decision. I think it was the worst financial decision that we could have made. It's changed the future landscape of America and the world forever," — Adam Baratta   A decision made 15 years ago by our central bankers forever altered the financial destiny of America and the world.   Now, it's becoming increasingly apparent that the Federal Reserve is stuck. The grip of consumer inflation remains unyielding, offering them no easy way to lower interest rates.   Meanwhile, our markets are entirely untethered for what's coming.   We're facing the greatest debt bubble in history while we're on a freefall, hurtling from crisis moment to crisis moment. Brace yourself because when this bubble inevitably bursts, it's going to be really painful.   So, what's the solution? And how can you invest in a way that sets you up to be optimistic about what we're facing?   Adam Baratta is a two-time #1 national bestselling author with his books Gold is a Better Way, and The Great Devaluation and is one of the most dynamic voices in investments and the global economy. He is the CEO and Editor of Brentwood Research, one of the fastest-growing financial publishing firms in the country. His just completed book, The Seven Simple Laws of Inflation, explains why he expects inflation to be the number one issue facing the global economy over the next several years.   Today, on “The Wiggin Sessions," Adam joins me to discuss his personal journey with gold, the future of the global economy, and the invaluable role of gold in navigating the uncertainties of the current monetary system.   Listen in as he shares the significant changes happening in the world's monetary and value systems and the bigger picture of what's coming next. Plus, a look at the benefits of a 40-30-20-10 portfolio model in an inflationary market and how gold can serve as a vital hedge against the banking catastrophe that lies ahead.   Key Takeaways The worst financial decision in America ever made The addictive nature of quantitative easing: why it's only a temporary relief that's setting the stage for long-term consequences How painful will it be when the bubble pops The risks and uncertainties associated with digital currencies (and their impact on the global economy) How a digital currency could lead to the nationalization of banks Why this isn't necessarily a bubble to fear The only solution to the current devaluing dollar crisis Why Adam thinks gold is the key to a reset of the monetary system The importance of owning tangible assets as the printing of (more) money continues Why transition to a 40-30-20-10 portfolio model in an inflationary market How owning gold can serve as a vital hedge against the banking catastrophe that lies ahead Connect with Adam Baratta  Brentwood Research Adam Baratta on LinkedIn  Connect with Addison Wiggin Consilience Financial The Wiggin Sessions on Facebook The Wiggin Sessions on Instagram The Wiggin Sessions on Twitter Resources The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest Dopesick Financial Reckoning Day Fallout: Surviving Today's Global Depression    Get Your FREE digital copy of The Seven Simple Laws of Inflation S4:E3 This Man is Building a "Battle Bank"? - The Wiggin Sessions The Great Devaluation Gold is a Better Way  ORDER “The Demise Of The Dollar” JOIN THE ESSENTIAL INVESTOR TODAY! Sign Up for The Wiggin Sessions The Wiggin Sessions - YouTube Share the Wiggin Sessions on Apple Podcasts  

Edward Chancellor is a financial historian, journalist, and author of, "Devil Take the Hindmost: A History of Financial Speculation" and his latest, “The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest” The two books link together the history of money and finance, and human culture.  In today's episode we explore the ways in which money and finance is embedded deeper in our lives than we may have previously thought.  ------ ✨ DEBRIEF | Unpacking the episode:  https://www.bankless.com/debrief-edward-chancellor    ------ ✨ COLLECTIBLES | Collect this episode:  https://collectibles.bankless.com/mint  ------

Edward Chancellor joins the podcast to discuss his book "The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest."

In this Episode, James Parkyn & François Doyon La Rochelle discuss the following subjects:  In the news: Global Banking Solvency   Main Topic : Update on Active Vs. Passive  In this episode, we invite our listeners to check our latest feature below. For the first time we share the Podcast Script which was a request from some of our audience.    Links: - The Grumpy Economist: How many banks are in danger? (johnhcochrane.blogspot.com)  by John Cochrane  -The Non-Bailout Bailout – Foreign Policy  by Adam Tooze, Podcast “Ones & Toozes”  -How Bank Oversight Failed: The Economy Changed, Regulators Didn't - WSJ by Andrew Acherman, Angel Au-Yeung & Hannah Miao  -Chief Risk Officer: The Most Thankless Job in Banking - WSJ by Ben Cohen  -Foolproof: Why Safety Can Be Dangerous and How Danger Makes Us Safe: Ip, Greg: 9780316286046: Books - Amazon.ca by Greg IP  -The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest: Chancellor, Edward: 9780802160065: Books - Amazon.ca by Edward Chancellor  -Episode 44: Central Banks and Recessions — Capital Topics by James Parkyn & François Doyon La Rochelle  -When Headlines Worry You, Bank on Investment Principles | Dimensional by Dimensional  -What Gets Lost When You Rescue Markets - WSJ by Jason Zweig  -It Wasn't Just Credit Suisse. Switzerland Itself Needed Rescuing. - WSJ by Margot Patrick, Patricia Kowsmann, Drew Hinshaw & Joe Parkinson  -SPIVA U.S. Year-End 2022 - SPIVA | S&P Dow Jones Indices (spglobal.com) by Tim Edwards, Anu R. Ganti, Craig Lazzara, Joseph Nelesen & Davide Di Gioia  -Active Funds Continue to Fall Short of Their Passive Peers | Morningstar by Bryan Armour    Read The Script:  Introduction:  François Doyon La Rochelle: You're listening to Capital Topics, episode #51!  This is a monthly podcast about passive asset management and financial and tax planning ideas for long-term investor.   Your hosts for this podcast are James Parkyn and me François Doyon La Rochelle, both portfolio managers with PWL Capital.  In this episode, we will discuss the following points:  For our first topic, we will discuss news on bank solvency.   And next, for our main topic, we will give you an update on the results of active management versus passive for 2022.   Enjoy!    In the news: Global Banking Solvency:   François Doyon La Rochelle: Our first topic today is news about Bank Solvency. James, you will address the major news story of the failure of Silicon Valley Bank, also known by the acronym SVB, in the US and the fear of contagion spreading to other US and International banks, especially after the news of the forced merger of the Credit Suisse bank with UBS in Switzerland. Credit Suisse bank was among the top 30 globally systemic important banks. Now, many of our Listeners are wondering: Is this the beginning of a major Banking crisis as we saw 15 years ago in 2008-2009 with the Global Financial Crisis?  James Parkyn:   I can understand why our Listeners and indeed most Investors would be very worried about this news. It is everywhere in the financial press. You can't escape it. In this segment, we will try to summarize what happened and what is important for Investors to know and what is noise so they avoid making bad decisions that could negatively impact their Long-Term Investment Plan.  François Doyon La Rochelle: So, let's start with SVB in the US. What happened and why did it fail so quickly?  James Parkyn: The story of what happened is not yet fully known. What we do know so far is that the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank was driven in part by assets it held (mostly high-quality US Treasury Bonds) that lost value when interest rates rose from near zero.    A mismatch between its assets and liabilities caused a liquidity trap. Events moved so rapidly that it kind of resembled the storyline in the classic Christmas Movie “It's a Wonderful Life” by Frank Capra starring Jimmy Stewart. Most Listeners know the storyline where Jimmy Stewart's brother in the movie lost the deposit money of the Bailey Building and Loan in a deposit-envelope mix-up at the bank owned by the dreaded Mr. Potter. Very quickly news spreads in the small town that the Bailey Building and Loan were insolvent, and customers rushed to withdraw their deposits.     François Doyon La Rochelle: Yes, this movie is one of the most loved of all time. It also perfectly illustrates a classic bank run.  James Parkyn: Economist John Cochrane in his Blog titled “How many banks are in danger?” on March 14, 2023, explains it best: “SVB failed because it funded a portfolio of long-term bonds and loans with run-prone uninsured deposits. Interest rates rose, and the market value of the assets fell below the value of the deposits. When people wanted their money back, the bank would have to sell at low prices, and there would not be enough for everyone. Depositors ran to be the first to get their money out.” And there you have it, that's what happened to SVB, a classic run on the bank.  François Doyon La Rochelle: To better understand, we must remember the economic picture prevailing in 2022 and what precipitated this. Last year, the key issue for both the economy and the banks was inflation, which jumped above 5% after decades of around 2%. The Fed had until mid-2021 to signal it would hold rates near zero for years then shifted gears dramatically and raised them at the sharpest pace since the early 1980s. Many investors, including SVB, were caught unprepared for this new reality of higher rates.    James Parkyn: The mechanics of Bond investing is that rising rates cause bond prices to fall, especially bonds that don't mature for many years. It has been widely reported that SVB favored longer-term bonds for their additional yield. A fall in the value of a bank's bond holdings could in theory reduce their capital, the cushion between assets and liabilities that absorbs losses.  François Doyon La Rochelle: How did the Regulators let this happen?   James Parkyn: In the WSJ on March 24th, 2023, in an article entitled “How Bank Oversight Failed: The Economy Changed, Regulators Didn't”. The article states: “As interest rates surged after years of quiescence, regulators didn't fully anticipate the hit banks would take to the value of their bond holdings.   The Fed as late as mid-2021 expected the era of ultralow rates to continue. Not until late 2022, when rates had already risen substantially, did regulators warn SVB that its modeling of interest-rate risk was inadequate.”  François Doyon La Rochelle: So, can we say the Regulators were not doing their job?  James Parkyn: A second factor was the failure to appreciate the danger where SVB became dependent on very large deposits. and these deposits could be withdrawn virtually any time with today's technology.   The WSJ article goes on to say, “Banks had come to depend more on such deposits. Regulators acknowledge they didn't stress such a concern because the big deposits were from SVB's and Signature's core customers, who, it was thought, would stick around.    François Doyon La Rochelle: The WSJ article goes on to say: “… deposits fled far faster than had ever happened before, aided both by social media-fueled fear and by technology that allowed people to move vast sums with a few taps on a smartphone.” I find it hard to believe that a large Bank with a reported USD 209 Billion in Assets would fail at such elementary risk management. Can we say it was a sort of perfect storm of events?   James Parkyn: I don't believe it is. We often say in our Podcast, we don't know what we don't know, and a Black Swan type of event is not forecastable. But this is just a case of bad risk management.   François Doyon La Rochelle: The economist John Cochrane in his March 14th Blog seems to agree. He stated: “In my previous post, I expressed astonishment that the immense bank regulatory apparatus did not notice this huge and elementary risk. It takes putting 2+2 together: lots of uninsured deposits, and big interest rate risk exposure. But 2+2=4 is not advanced math”.  James Parkyn: The storyline gets better. Bank regulations in developed countries like Canada and the US require that they have a senior executive in a role called Chief Risk Officer or CRO. It is unbelievable but at the time of failure, SVB had no CRO.    Journalist Ben Cohen of the WSJ wrote an Article on March 23, 2023, titled “It's the Most Thankless Job in Banking. Silicon Valley Bank Didn't Fill It for Months.” He wrote: “Silicon Valley Bank's lack of an executive in that role for eight critical months is a reminder that risk doesn't have to be excessive or exotic to be existential. SVB's alarming exposure to rising interest rates wasn't hard to see coming and should have been easy to hedge against. It remains flabbergasting how a bank that served the most innovative corner of the economy could have been doomed by a basic mismatch of assets and liabilities. But tech's favorite bank failed because its risk management did first.”  François Doyon La Rochelle: But the SVB would've had other risk-reporting regulatory obligations. Ultimately, would the Board of the Bank be accountable?  James Parkyn: Yes, I agree even with no Chief Risk Officer, at the very least there should have been an acting CRO, and regulations would require regular reporting to the board on Risk management. Ben Cohen of the WSJ said it best: “Of course, the presence of a Chief Risk Officer isn't necessary to know when the Federal Reserve hikes rates and regulatory filings suggest SVB was aware of its vulnerabilities long before the run on the bank: The board's risk committee met nearly as many times last year (18) as it did in the previous three years combined (19).” So here again we see a big-time failure of basic governance processes.  François Doyon La Rochelle:  So, what about the Credit Suisse Bank and the merger with UBS? Is the situation like SVB? What's the impact of Credit Suisse and UBS merging?  James Parkyn: Economic Historian Adam Tooze in his Podcast Ones and Toozes on March 17th, 2023called it a “Confidence shock that killed Credit Suisse”. Regular listeners will remember from Podcast #44 that he wrote the highly regarded book “Crashed” detailing what happened in the banking system during the global financial crisis. Unlike SVB it was not a liquidity crisis but a counterparty crisis. Other global banks and large customers were losing faith in Credit Suisse's ongoing viability.      This is a major issue for Switzerland and its role in the global banking system. A recent WSJ Article titled “It Wasn't Just Credit Suisse. Switzerland Itself Needed Rescuing”. For any country, it would be a financial emergency. For Switzerland, the stakes verged on existential. Its economic model and national identity, cultivated over centuries, were built on safeguarding the world's wealth. It wasn't just about a bank. Switzerland itself needed rescuing.  François Doyon La Rochelle: The Credit Suisse bank crisis added the Global contagion dimension to this crisis. For the Swiss, it threatens an economic model and national identity built on safeguarding the world's wealth.  James Parkyn: Credit Suisse, the second-largest Swiss bank, and Top 10 Global Bank, has had risk management issues for over a decade. Adam Tooze in his March 17th Podcast called it a “Confidence shock that killed Credit Suisse”. Now that Credit Suisse and UBS, the larger Swiss bank, have merged, the question is the combined bank, with over 50% of the Swiss banking market, too big to bail?   The WSJ reported on March 22nd, 2023: “Its banking system is five times the size of its gross domestic product and larger than in most economies. UBS combined with Credit Suisse has a balance sheet twice the size of the Swiss economy.”  François Doyon La Rochelle: It is clear to me that all this turmoil will have an impact on the Central Bank's Policymaking and their inflation-fighting maneuvers of raising interest rates. The bank collapses in the United States and the emergency rescue of Credit Suisse is likely to force central banks to weigh the trade-off between systemic risks and inflation risks.  James Parkyn: Higher rates will continue to weigh on banks' balance sheets. They will also cause problems in other parts of the economy. Economic Historian Adam Tooze in his Podcast on March 17th, 2023 said “when Central banks increase interest rates, they are trying to impact inflation thru negative events. With such a rapid rate hiking cycle engineered by Central Banks, it was to be expected that negative economic shocks would happen. It was only a question of what would bend and what would break.”    François Doyon La Rochelle: What is the role of Bank Regulators in this mess?  James Parkyn: Well! you know, it seems they're always fighting the last battle with the last battle strategies and so, if you recall in our Podcast #44, we quoted Mervin King, the former governor of the Central Bank, that said: “Central Banks have to come up with new ideas and we got to forget about the mistakes of the recent past and focus on what needs to be done.” So, let's go back to Jason Zweig, who wrote in the WSJ article on March 17th “Over the past couple of decades, the Fed, the Treasury, and other authorities have stepped in time after time to stabilize the financial markets, as if failure were no longer an option. This all goes to illustrate an even bigger problem: Central authorities aren't omniscient and omnipotent, and their efforts to wring risk out of the system may make it more dangerous, not less. Even as rules have proliferated and bailouts multiplied, the U.S. stock market has suffered four crashes of least 20% since the year 2000.”  François Doyon La Rochelle: Well now we are talking about Moral Hazard.   Another quote from Jason Zweig of the WSJ: “The attempt to eradicate failure from the financial system, of course, is part of modern society's broader push to make life itself riskless and idiot-proof, with indestructible baby strollers, child-resistant drug packaging, almost self-driving cars and shoe removal at airport security.”  James Parkyn: Another WSJ Columnist Greg Ip pointed out in his 2015 book “Foolproof,”: “…making an environment feel safer can lull many people into complacency and excessive risk-taking.” I am also reading a highly recommended book by financial historian Edward Chancellor, called “The Price of Time,” a history of interest rates. This author makes the point “The attempt to control risk by lowering interest rates reduces the cost of taking risk, and so ends up increasing the aggregate amount of risk in the system.” We have talked a lot in our podcast about normalized interest rates. We have had rates that are too low for too long and too many people have taken for granted this would simply continue.  François Doyon La Rochelle: James, what is your advice for our Listener?  James Parkyn: In preparation for this Podcast, I went back to our Podcast #44 on Central Banks that we published in September 2022. The big fear last fall was about recessions and the potential impact on financial markets. We highlighted Dimensional research that showed that Markets around the world have often rewarded investors even when economic activity has slowed. Many now feel that the specter of Bank failures will reduce lending activities by banks further increasing the likelihood of reduced economic activity. We recommend that our Listeners stay disciplined in their LT Investment plan and forget about all the noise of the moment such as Inflation, Interest rates, recession, and now we can add to the list of bank failures.  François Doyon La Rochelle: Yes indeed, our regular Listeners know, this is one of our mantras as a disciplined Investor with a Long-Term Mindset you can't forecast the future.    James Parkyn: In conclusion Francois, we turn to our friends at Dimensional, they produced a great article entitled “When Headlines worry you, bank on Investment Principles.”  “While every investor's plan is a bit different, ignoring headlines and focusing on the following time-tested principles may help you to avoid making short-sighted missteps.  1. Uncertainty Is Unavoidable: uncertainty is nothing new and investing comes with risks.  2. Market Timing Is Futile.  3. “Diversification Is Your Buddy” a quote they attribute to Nobel laureate Merton Miller.  François Doyon La Rochelle: I like the following quote from this article: “When the unexpected happens, many investors feel like they should be doing something with their portfolios. Often, headlines and pundits stoke these sentiments with predictions of more doom and gloom. For the long-term investor, however, planning for what can happen is far more powerful than trying to predict what will happen.”   As usual, we will share the link with our Listeners.    Main Topic: Update on Active Vs. Passive:   François Doyon La Rochelle: For our second topic today, we will give you an update on the results of active management versus passive for 2022. I believe that by now, after all the podcasts that we have released, most of our listeners understand that we are strong believers in market efficiency and that our investment philosophy is based on the empirical evidence that using broad-based and low-cost investment passively managed products are the best way to capture market returns and increase the odds of long-term success for our clients.   James Parkyn: Correct and it's been more than 20 years now that we have adopted this investment approach based on the belief that active investing is a negative sum game. However, this does not mean that we don't question ourselves and look at the latest research papers and articles to make sure our investment philosophy is supported by evidence.   François Doyon La Rochelle: Yes, and that's why year after year we analyze the SPIVA report, from S&P Dow Jones Indices which measures the results of the S&P Indices versus active funds, and also the Morningstar Active vs Passive Barometer report which measures the performance of active funds against their respective passive peers, to see if the results for the last year were any different than in the past. Unfortunately for active managers, this year was no different than in the past, since once again active managers were not able to beat their passive comparable.  James Parkyn: This is particularly interesting after a difficult year like 2022 when stock and bond markets unusually sold off at the same time. The old narrative from active managers is that good active management will outperform passive investments during times of market volatility, so what happened?  François Doyon La Rochelle: Well, we would certainly expect given all the market volatility in 2022, that active managers would have plenty of opportunities to beat passive strategies.   James Parkyn: Effectively, we covered the major geopolitical and economic events in our podcast over the last year, but it is worthwhile to highlight some of them for our listeners to get a feel for the opportunities that active management could have exploited to generate better results. The year started with the war in Ukraine and the subsequent geopolitical turmoil, then followed multi decades of high inflation rates, and the subsequent swift and strong reaction from central banks to increase interest rates. Again, I am just highlighting the obvious here but getting back to our topic Francois, how well did active management do against passive last year?   François Doyon La Rochelle: To answer your question, James, I will base myself predominantly on the Morningstar active versus passive barometer report. This report is comprehensive as it covers nearly 8,400 actively managed funds in the U.S. with approximately $15.7 trillion of assets under management. I prefer this report to the SPIVA since it measures the rate of success of active managers against the results of actual passive funds and not benchmarks.  James Parkyn: This is an important nuance. The Morningstar report “benchmarks” reflect the actual, net-of-fees performance of investable passive funds and not simply the performance of an index that is not investible without incurring fees.   François Doyon La Rochelle: Correct James and that's a very important nuance.  Now let's look at the results. Again, based on the narrative that active managers will do better in times of market stress I think the results for 2022 are not very conclusive for active management.   Based on the 20 different investment categories reported by Morningstar only 40.5% of active managers were able to beat their respective benchmarks in 2022. This is a weaker result than in 2021, a very good year in the markets when 51.1% of active managers were able to beat their benchmarks.   James Parkyn: As you mentioned this is very interesting as it goes against the active management's narrative that they will perform better in difficult years. So out of the 20 categories, what were the best ones?  François Doyon La Rochelle: Out of the 20 different categories, 6 of them had a success rate above 50%. Meaning that in each of these 6 categories, more than 50% of the managers were able to beat their benchmarks. By way of comparison, that number for 2021 was 7. That being said, the best-performing categories in 2022 were, one, the US small value category with a 61% success rate, second, the US small growth category with a 56.9% success rate and third the world large blend category with a 56% success rate. I must mention in all objectivity that the U.S. large blend category, which is probably the largest fund category by assets under management, was also amongst the best categories in 2022 with a success rate of 54.1%. This means that 54.1% of the active managers in that category beat their benchmark last year.    James Parkyn: Now which categories fared the worst?   François Doyon La Rochelle: The worst category out of the 20 was Global Real Estate with a success rate of only 20%, it was slightly surpassed by the corporate bond category with a success rate of 22.6% and by the diversified emerging markets category with a success rate of 23.4%.   James Parkyn: What I find interesting in these results is that the highly interest-sensitive categories like global real estate and the corporate bond category were amongst the worst-performing categories last year.  François Doyon La Rochelle: Yes, I was also surprised by these results and by the fact that the other bond categories, the intermediate core bond category, and the high yield bond category have also had poor results with low success rates of 37.9% and 27.2% respectively. Therefore, vastly underperform their passive counterparts.  James Parkyn: Wow, I would have thought that in a year like 2022 with all the talk surrounding inflation, interest rates, and central bank decisions active management would have prevailed. Given the narrative, you would expect that active managers would be able to adjust their portfolios and reap the benefit of predicting interest rate changes.  François Doyon La Rochelle: Indeed James. I also looked at the 2022 SPIVA U.S. and Canadian reports and although they don't analyze the performance of active versus passive in the same way as Morningstar, there were some very interesting takeaways in their report regarding the inability of active managers to outperform their respective benchmarks. The report highlights that the market conditions for equities and fixed income were uncommonly challenging in 2022, underlying however that these difficult markets gave active managers material opportunities to generate relative outperformance. Opportunities that most active managers were unable to exploit.  James Parkyn: What do they mean by that unable to exploit?  François Doyon La Rochelle: Well, if we examine the example provided in the U.S. SPIVA report, the S&P500 Growth, and the S&P500 Value indices, which are both large-cap U.S. equities indices, were respectively the worst and best-performing equity benchmarks in 2022. The report goes on to mention that more than 20 percentage points were separating their full year's performance. Our regular listeners will remember that we highlighted in our podcast #48 that value stocks vastly outperformed growth stocks in 2022.  James Parkyn: Wow, this type of dispersion in returns should in my mind been a great opportunity for active management.  François Doyon La Rochelle: Yes, but the active managers were not able to seize the opportunity since most of them, who are benchmarked to the S&P500 Index, failed to beat it. Since large-cap growth stocks were the worst-performing asset class, a large-cap growth manager could have simply purchased stocks of another U.S. asset class to beat its benchmark. Despite this fact, close to 74% of active managers in that asset class still failed to beat their benchmark. Here is a quote from the report, “the prospect for skilled stock pickers in large-cap U.S. equities were above average and the tailwinds for even unskilled managers were unusually favorable” The report goes on to say “An examination of the particular market segments that over and underperformed shows that they should have given the advantage to active managers, in particular thanks to their ability to deviate from broad-based, market cap weighted allocations to large-cap U.S. equities.    James Parkyn: Anything to report on the longer-term results of active versus passive?  François Doyon La Rochelle: Well, for the last 10-year period the success rate for active management in the Morningstar report is at 31.5%, meaning only 31.5% of the active managers were able to beat their passive counterparts. If you look at the 20-year results, the success rate drops even further to a low of 16.2%. In the U.S. SPIVA report what I found interesting there is that it gives the quartile breakpoints for Equity funds in the U.S. The takeaway here is that if you would have bought an S&P500 Index fund or a broader market S&P1500 Index Fund you would have effectively bought a fund that ranked in the first quartile of all active and passive funds in the over the last 5,10- and 20-year periods.       James Parkyn: Well François that's very compelling evidence because I wrote a blog recently and you got all this financial press “There is a recession coming…you should do this and do that with your portfolio...” and I said “Yeah, but then what? What do you do?” and often the market is going to react before the recession ends. Maybe active managers, as you mentioned earlier, the large-cap blend, 54% beat the benchmark. But then what? What about the second year? And there are taxable events and you have got to guess both events. If you're riding a horse in active management, it's got to continuously be at par with the market. When you show only 16.2% over 20 years beat the market and we haven't even gotten into the tax and efficiency of active management vs. taxes. So again, based on these reports and our experience with client portfolios, we're very confident that staying the course with our investment philosophy is doing the right thing with our customers and we believe that our listeners would agree as well.  François Doyon La Rochelle: That's correct, no changes are planned, again it's proof that over the long term, disciplined passive investors will earn higher returns than active investors.      Conclusion:   François Doyon La Rochelle: Thank you, James Parkyn for sharing your expertise and your knowledge.   James Parkyn: You are welcome, Francois.  François Doyon La Rochelle: That's it for episode #51 of Capital Topics!  Do not forget, if you would like to submit questions or suggestions for the show, please email us at: capitaltopics@pwlcapital.com  Also, if you like our podcast, please share it when with family and friends, and if you have not subscribed to it, please do.  Again, thank you for tuning in and please join us for our next episode to be released on May 11th.    See you soon! 

Dans cet épisode, James Parkyn et François Doyon La Rochelle discutent les sujets suivants :  Dans les nouvelles : La crise de solvabilité des Banques mondiales  Sujet Principal : Mise à jour sur la Gestion Active vs. Passive  Dans cet épisode, nous invitons nos auditeurs à découvrir notre dernière fonctionnalité ci-dessous. Pour la première fois, nous partageons le script du podcast, à la demande de certains de nos auditeurs.    Liens:  - The Grumpy Economist: How many banks are in danger? (johnhcochrane.blogspot.com)  par John Cochrane  -The Non-Bailout Bailout – Foreign Policy  par Adam Tooze, balado “Ones & Toozes”  -How Bank Oversight Failed: The Economy Changed, Regulators Didn't - WSJ par Andrew Acherman, Angel Au-Yeung & Hannah Miao  -Chief Risk Officer: The Most Thankless Job in Banking - WSJ par Ben Cohen  -Foolproof: Why Safety Can Be Dangerous and How Danger Makes Us Safe: Ip, Greg: 9780316286046: Books - Amazon.ca par Greg IP  -The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest: Chancellor, Edward: 9780802160065: Books - Amazon.ca par Edward Chancellor  -Épisode 44 : Banques Centrales et Récessions — Sujet Capital par James Parkyn & François Doyon La Rochelle  -When Headlines Worry You, Bank on Investment Principles | Dimensional par Dimensional  -What Gets Lost When You Rescue Markets - WSJ par Jason Zweig  -It Wasn't Just Credit Suisse. Switzerland Itself Needed Rescuing. - WSJ par Margot Patrick, Patricia Kowsmann, Drew Hinshaw & Joe Parkinson  -SPIVA U.S. Year-End 2022 - SPIVA | S&P Dow Jones Indices (spglobal.com)  par Tim Edwards, Anu R. Ganti, Craig Lazzara, Joseph Nelesen & Davide Di Gioia  -Active Funds Continue to Fall Short of Their Passive Peers | Morningstar par Bryan Armour    Lire le script :  Introduction :  François Doyon La Rochelle: Bienvenue à Sujet Capital, un balado mensuel à propos de la gestion passive de portefeuille et de la planification financière et fiscale pour les investisseurs à long terme.  Vos hôtes pour ce balado sont James Parkyn et moi-même François Doyon La Rochelle, tous deux gestionnaires de portefeuilles avec PWL Capital.  Au programme aujourd'hui pour l'épisode #51 :  Pour notre premier sujet, nous aborderons la solvabilité des banques.  Et ensuite, pour notre sujet principal, nous ferons le point sur les résultats de la gestion active versus la gestion passive pour 2022.  Bonne écoute !    La crise de solvabilité des Banques mondiales :  François Doyon La Rochelle: Notre premier sujet aujourd'hui est un sujet d'actualité, c'est un sujet qui porte sur la solvabilité bancaire. James, tu vas aborder l'actualité entourant l'échec de la Silicon Valley Bank, également connue sous l'acronyme SVB, aux États-Unis et la crainte d'une contagion qui pourrait se propager à d'autres banques américaines et internationales, en particulier après l'annonce de la fusion forcée de la Banque crédit Suisse avec UBS. Il est important de noter que le crédit Suisse figurait parmi les 30 banques les plus importantes au niveau mondial. Maintenant, beaucoup de nos auditeurs se demandent si c'est le début d'une crise bancaire majeure comme nous l'avons vu il y a 15 ans en 2008-2009 avec la crise financière mondiale ?  James Parkyn: Je peux comprendre pourquoi nos auditeurs et en fait la plupart des investisseurs seraient très inquiets à propos de ces nouvelles dans le monde bancaire. C'est partout dans la presse financière. Vous ne pouvez pas y échapper. Dans ce segment, nous essaierons de résumer ce qui s'est passé et ce qu'il est important pour que les investisseurs sachent afin qu'ils évitent de prendre de mauvaises décisions qui pourraient avoir un impact négatif sur leur plan d'investissement à long terme.   François Doyon La Rochelle: Alors, commençons par SVB aux États-Unis. Qu'est-ce qui s'est passé et pourquoi a-t-elle échoué si rapidement ?  James Parkyn: L'histoire de ce qui s'est passé n'est pas encore entièrement connue. Ce que nous savons jusqu'à présent, c'est que l'effondrement soudain de la Silicon Valley Bank a été provoqué en partie par les actifs qu'elle détenait (principalement des bons du Trésor américain de haute qualité) qui ont perdu de la valeur lorsque les taux d'intérêt qui ont beaucoup augmenté après avoir été près de zéro. Un mauvais appariement entre ses actifs et ses passifs a provoqué une crise de liquidité. Les événements se sont déroulés si rapidement qu'ils ressemblaient un peu à l'histoire du film américain de Noël classique "It's a Wonderful Life" de Frank Capra avec le comédien Jimmy Stewart. Certain de nos auditeurs connaissent l'histoire du film où le frère de Jimmy Stewart a perdu l'argent de dépôt du Bailey Building and Loan, une caisse Populaire locale, dans une confusion d'enveloppe de dépôt à la banque appartenant au redoutable M. Potter. Très vite, la nouvelle se répandit dans la petite ville que le Bailey Building and Loan était insolvable et les clients se précipitèrent pour retirer leurs dépôts.     François Doyon La Rochelle: Oui, je dirais que pour les anglophones que c'est un film classique du temps des fêtes, l'un des plus aimés de tous les temps. Il illustre également parfaitement une panique bancaire ou en anglais « A run on the bank ».  James Parkyn: On peut se tourner maintenant vers L'économiste John Cochrane dans son blog intitulé "Combien de banques sont en danger ?" le 14 mars 2023, il explique selon moi le mieux la situation qui s'est produite avec la SVB. Il a dit : « SVB a échoué, essentiellement, parce qu'elle a financé un portefeuille d'obligations et de prêts à long terme avec des dépôts non assurés susceptibles de retrait sans conditions. Les taux d'intérêt ont augmenté, la valeur marchande des actifs est tombée en dessous de la valeur des dépôts. Quand les gens voudraient récupérer leur argent, la banque devrait vendre à bas prix, et il n'y en aurait pas assez pour tout le monde. Les déposants se sont précipités pour être les premiers à retirer leur argent. Et voilà, c'est ce qui est arrivé à SVB, une ruée aux guichets bancaires.  François Doyon La Rochelle: Pour mieux comprendre, il faut se souvenir de la situation économique qui prévalait en 2022 et de ce qui l'a précipitée. L'année dernière, le problème clé pour l'économie et les banques c'était l'inflation, qui a bondi au-dessus de 5% après des décennies autour de 2%. Jusqu'à la mi-2021, la Fed avait signalé qu'elle maintiendrait les taux proches de zéro pendant des années, puis elle a radicalement changé de vitesse et a relevé les taux au rythme le plus rapide depuis le début des années 1980. De nombreux investisseurs, dont SVB, ont été pris au dépourvu par cette nouvelle réalité de taux plus élevés.  James Parkyn: La mécanique de l'investissement obligataire est que la hausse des taux fait chuter les prix des obligations, en particulier les obligations qui n'arrivent pas à échéance avant de nombreuses années. Il a été largement rapporté que SVB privilégiait les obligations à plus long terme pour leur rendement supplémentaire. Une baisse de la valeur des avoirs obligataires d'une banque pourrait en théorie réduire son capital, C'est à dire le coussin entre l'actif et le passif qui absorbe les pertes.  François Doyon La Rochelle: Comment les régulateurs ont-ils laissé cette situation se produire ?  James Parkyn: Dans le WSJ du 24 mars 2023, dans un article intitulé "How Bank Oversight Failed: The Economy Changed, Regulators Didn't". L'article déclare: "Alors que les taux d'intérêt ont bondi après des années de stabilité, les régulateurs n'avaient pas pleinement anticipé l'impact que les banques subiraient sur la valeur de leurs avoirs obligataires. Jusqu'à la mi-2021, la Fed s'attendait à ce que l'ère des taux ultra bas se poursuive. Ce n'est qu'à la fin de 2022, alors que les taux avaient déjà considérablement augmenté, que les régulateurs ont averti SVB que sa modélisation du risque de taux d'intérêt était inadéquate. »  François Doyon La Rochelle: Alors, est-ce qu'on peut dire que les régulateurs n'effectuaient pas leur travail ?  James Parkyn: En partie oui, encore une fois le titre de l'article le dit bien. Un deuxième facteur a été l'absence de prise de conscience du danger que représentait la dépendance de la SVB à l'égard de dépôts très importants, qui pouvaient être retirés pratiquement à tout moment grâce à la technologie d'aujourd'hui. L'article du WSJ poursuit en disant : « Les banques en sont venues à dépendre davantage de ces dépôts. Les régulateurs reconnaissent qu'ils n'ont pas insisté sur une telle préoccupation parce que les gros dépôts provenaient des principaux clients de SVB et de Signature, qui, pensait-on, resteraient.   François Doyon La Rochelle: L'article du WSJ poursuit en disant : "... les dépôts ont fui beaucoup plus rapidement que jamais auparavant, aidés à la fois par la peur alimentée par les médias sociaux et par la technologie qui a permis aux gens de déplacer de grosses sommes en quelques clics sur un smartphone". J'ai du mal à croire qu'une grande banque avec un actif déclaré de 209 milliards de dollars américains échouerait à une gestion des risques aussi élémentaire. Est-ce qu'on peut dire que c'était une sorte de tempête parfaite?   James Parkyn: Je ne le crois pas. Nous disons souvent dans notre podcast, on ne sait pas ce qu'on ne sait pas, et un événement de type Black Swan n'est pas prévisible. Le cas de la SVB, est un cas de mauvaise gestion des risques à la base très élémentaire.  François Doyon La Rochelle: L'économiste John Cochrane dans son blog du 14 mars semble être d'accord. Il a déclaré : « Dans mon dernier article, j'ai exprimé mon étonnement que l'immense appareil de régulation bancaire n'ait pas remarqué ce risque énorme et élémentaire. Il faut mettre 2 + 2 ensembles : beaucoup de dépôts non assurés, une grande exposition au risque de taux d'intérêt. 2+2=4, ce ne sont pas des maths avancées ».  James Parkyn: Ce n'est pas tout, il y a encore plus d'éléments à cette histoire. La réglementation bancaire dans les pays développés comme le Canada et les États-Unis exige qu'ils aient en poste un cadre supérieur dans chaque banque dans le poste de chef de la gestion des risques (Chief Risk Officer). C'est incroyable, mais au moment de l'échec, la SVB n'avait personne dans ce rôle.   Le journaliste Ben Cohen du WSJ a écrit un article le 23 mars 2023, intitulé « C'est le poste le plus ingrat dans le secteur bancaire. Silicon Valley Bank ne l'a pas rempli pendant des mois. Il a écrit : « L'absence d'un cadre supérieur dans ce rôle pour la Silicon Valley Bank pendant huit mois critiques nous rappelle que le risque n'a pas à être excessif ou exotique pour être existentiel. L'exposition alarmante de SVB à la hausse des taux d'intérêt n'aurait pas dû être difficile à prévoir par la banque et les mesures pour se protéger aurait dû être facile à implanter. » Je suis étonné de voir comment une banque qui desservait une clientèle le plus innovant de l'économie américaine aurait pu être condamnée par une mauvaise gestion élémentaire des risques. Mais cette banque qui était une préférée du secteur de la technologie en Californie a échoué à cause de sa gestion des risques.  François Doyon La Rochelle: Mais la SVB devait sûrement avoir d'autres processus de gestion du risque parce que la responsabilité ultime revient au PDG de la banque et au conseil d'administration.  En fin de compte, le conseil d'administration de la banque serait-il responsable?  James Parkyn: Effectivement, le conseil est responsable. Puis même si on n'a personne en poste il faut avoir quelqu'un qui prend la responsabilité au niveau réglementaire. PWL Capital est réglementée, on a un Chef des Finances, on a un Chef de Conformité, on a un PDG qui est ultimement responsable de tout. Et on a un conseil d'administration qui supervise le Président et les activités de l'entreprise. Donc si on creuse un peu plus loin, oui je suis d'accord que même en l'absence de chef de la gestion des risques, au moins il aurait dû y avoir une personne par intérim et la réglementation aurait exigé des rapports réguliers au conseil d'administration sur la gestion du risque. Ben Cohen du WSJ l'a dit le mieux : "Bien sûr, la présence d'un directeur de la gestion des risques n'est pas nécessaire pour savoir quand la Réserve fédérale augmente les taux. Les dépôts des rapports réglementaires suggèrent que SVB était conscient de ses vulnérabilités bien avant la ruée sur la banque. : Le comité de la gestion des risques du conseil s'est réuni presque autant de fois l'an dernier (18) qu'au cours des trois années précédentes combinées (19). » Donc François, là encore, nous assistons à un échec retentissant des processus de gouvernance de base.  François Doyon La Rochelle:  Alors, qu'en est-il de la Banque Crédit Suisse et de la fusion avec UBS? Est-ce que la situation ressemble à celle de la SVB ? Quel est l'impact de la fusion du Crédit Suisse et d'UBS?  James Parkyn: La situation est en effet différente, mais c'est un effet de rebond. Tout le monde immédiatement dans les marchés financiers a remis en question toutes les banques. Sont-elles bien gérées ou mal gérées ? C'est là qu'il y a une historique récente, dans les 10 et 15 dernières années, ou le Crédit Suisse a été souvent mis en garde par les autorités réglementaires par des grosse amandes par les milliards et on s'inquiétait de sa gestion du risque. L'historien économique Adam Tooze dans son podcast Ones and Toozes du 17 mars 2023 l'a qualifié de "choc de confiance qui a tué le Crédit Suisse". Les auditeurs réguliers se souviendront du Podcast # 44 lorsque j'ai recommandé son livre « Crashed » une œuvre magistrale qu'il a écrit sur le système bancaire pendant la crise financière mondiale. Contrairement à SVB, avec Crédit Suisse, Adam Tooze affirme qu'il ne s'agissait pas d'une crise de liquidité mais plutôt d'une crise de contrepartie…… D'autres banques mondiales et des clients importants perdaient confiance dans la viabilité à long terme du Crédit Suisse compte tenu de son historique récente de sa mauvaise gestion du risque.  C'est aussi un enjeu majeur pour la Suisse et son rôle dans le système bancaire mondial. Un article récent du WSJ intitulé "Ce n'était pas seulement le Crédit Suisse. La Suisse elle-même avait besoin d'être sauvée ». Pour n'importe quel pays, les problèmes du Crédit Suisse seraient une urgence financière. Pour la Suisse, c'est un enjeu existentiel. Son modèle économique et son identité nationale, cultivés au fil des ans, se sont construits sur la sauvegarde des richesses et la gestion des grandes fortunes mondiales. Il ne s'agissait pas seulement d'une banque. La Suisse elle-même qui avait besoin d'être secourue.  François Doyon La Rochelle: La crise bancaire du Crédit Suisse a ajouté la dimension de contagion mondiale à cette crise. Pour les Suisses, elle menace un modèle économique et une identité nationale.  James Parkyn: Crédit Suisse, c'est la deuxième plus grande banque suisse et fait partie du Top 30 des banques systémiques mondiales. Donc, les autorités des pays du G20, surveillent ces 30 grandes banques et doivent respecter les normes de capital qui sont plus restrictives. Le Crédit Suisse a des problèmes de gestion des risques depuis plus d'une décennie. Adam Tooze dans son podcast du 17 mars l'a qualifié de "choc de confiance qui a tué le Crédit Suisse". Maintenant que le Crédit Suisse et UBS, la plus grande banque suisse, ont fusionné, la question qui doit se poser est : la nouvelle banque, aura plus de 50% du marché bancaire suisse, est-elle maintenant trop grande pour être renflouée si une nouvelle crise se réaliserai dans l'année ? Le WSJ a rapporté le 22 mars 2023 : « Son système bancaire est cinq fois plus grand que son produit intérieur brut et plus grand que dans la plupart des économies. UBS combiné avec le Crédit Suisse a un bilan deux fois plus grand que l'économie suisse ». C'est énorme ! On disait qu'il y avait une expression anglaise, une banque qui est « Too big to fail » ce qui veut dire que si elle est dans le trouble, le gouvernement va devoir qu'il vient à la rescousse pour la maintenir en vie. Mais dans ce cas-ci, c'est plutôt « Too big to bail ».   François Doyon La Rochelle: Il est clair pour moi que toutes ces turbulences auront un impact sur l'élaboration des politiques des banques centrales et leurs moyens pour lutter contre l'inflation en augmentant les taux d'intérêt. La SVB qui s'effondre aux États-Unis et le sauvetage d'urgence du Crédit Suisse devrait forcer les banques centrales à sous-peser leur décision entre gérer des risques systémiques et les risques d'inflation.  James Parkyn: Donc, on peut penser qu'il y a un certain consensus qui semble se développer surtout au Canada et aux États-Unis qu'on est à la fin de la hausse des taux. Même si c'est le cas, je pense que les hausses qu'on a eu depuis les 12 derniers mois continueraient de faire effet, selon certains économistes spécialisés, sur les banques et ça va impacter les bilans des banques ainsi que les actifs qu'ils détiennent. Ils causeront également des problèmes dans d'autres secteurs de l'économie. Je cite encore Adam Tooze, il a déclaré : « Lorsque les banques centrales augmentent les taux d'intérêt, elles essaient d'avoir un impact sur l'inflation par le biais d'événements négatifs. Avec un cycle de hausse des taux aussi rapide adopté par les banques centrales, il fallait s'attendre à ce que des chocs économiques négatifs se produisent. C'était seulement une question à savoir ce qui se plierait VS ce qui se casserait.  François Doyon La Rochelle: Quel est le rôle des régulateurs bancaires dans ce gâchis ?  James Parkyn: C'est une très bonne question François, je reviens sur les propos de l'ancien gouverneur de la banque de l'Angleterre, Mervyn King, que l'on a cité lors de notre podcast #44, qui invitait les Leaders des banques centrales à une réflexion sur les nouvelles stratégies à développer. Jason Zweig a écrit dans son l'article du WSJ du 17 mars et je le cite: « Au cours des deux dernières décennies, la Fed, le Trésor et d'autres autorités sont intervenues à maintes reprises pour stabiliser les marchés financiers, comme si l'échec n'était plus une option. Tout cela illustre un problème encore plus grave : les autorités centrales ne sont ni omniscientes ni omnipotentes, et leurs efforts pour extraire les risques du système peuvent le rendre plus dangereux, pas moins. Alors même que les règles se sont multipliées et que les renflouements se sont multipliés, le marché boursier américain a subi quatre krachs d'au moins 20 % depuis l'an 2000. »  François Doyon La Rochelle: Eh bien maintenant, nous parlons de Risque Moral. Jason Zweig en parle justement: "La tentative d'éradiquer l'échec du système financier, bien sûr, fait partie de la poussée plus large de la société moderne pour rendre la vie elle-même sans risque et à l'épreuve des idiots, avec des poussettes indestructibles, des emballages de médicaments à l'épreuve des enfants, voitures presque autonomes et autres... »  James Parkyn: Un autre chroniqueur du WSJ, Greg IP, l'a souligné dans son livre "Foolproof" publié en 2015. Il dit : « … rendre un environnement plus sûr peut endormir de nombreuses personnes dans la complaisance et la prise de risques excessifs »." Je lis également un livre écrit par l'historien financier britannique Edward Chancellor, intitulé "Le prix du temps". Ce livre décrit l'histoire et les origines des taux d'intérêt. Cet auteur fait valoir que "la tentative de contrôler le risque en abaissant les taux d'intérêt réduit le coût de la prise de risque, et finit donc par augmenter le montant global du risque dans le système". Nous avons beaucoup parlé François dans notre podcast des taux d'intérêt normalisés a plusieurs reprises dans la dernière année dans notre Podcast. Je crois que nous avons eu des taux trop bas pendant trop longtemps et trop de gens ont tenu pour acquis que ça continuerait tout simplement.  François Doyon La Rochelle: James, quel est ton conseil pour nos auditeurs ?  James Parkyn: En préparation de ce Podcast, je suis retourné à notre Podcast #44 sur les Banques Centrales. La grande crainte à l'automne quand on l'a publié, concernait les récessions et l'impact potentiel sur les marchés financiers. Nous avons souligné la recherche de Dimensional qui a montré que les marchés du monde entier ont récompensé les investisseurs même lorsque l'activité économique a ralenti. Beaucoup pensent maintenant que le spectre des faillites bancaires réduira les activités de faire des prêts par les banques, ce qui augmentera encore la probabilité d'une activité économique au ralentie. Nous recommandons à nos auditeurs de rester disciplinés dans leur plan d'investissement a LT et d'oublier tout le bruit du moment tel que l'inflation, les taux d'intérêt, la récession et maintenant nous pouvons ajouter à la liste les faillites bancaires.  François Doyon La Rochelle: Oui, en effet, nos auditeurs réguliers le savent, c'est l'un de nos mantras en tant qu'investisseur discipliné avec un état d'esprit à long terme, vous ne pouvez pas prévoir l'avenir.  James Parkyn: En conclusion François, nous nous tournons vers nos amis de Dimensional, ils ont produit un excellent article intitulé "Quand les grands titres vous inquiètent, misez sur les principes d'investissement" qui dit que : «Bien que le plan de chaque investisseur soit un peu différent, ignorer les grands titres et se concentrer sur les principes éprouvés suivants peut vous aider à éviter de faire des faux pas avec vos placements.  1. L'incertitude est inévitable : l'incertitude n'est pas nouvelle et investir comporte des risques.  2. La synchronisation du marché c'est-à-dire le Market Timing en EN est futile.  3. "La diversification est votre ami", une citation attribuée au lauréat du prix Nobel Merton Miller.  François Doyon La Rochelle: J'aime la citation suivante dans cet article : « Lorsque l'inattendu se produit, de nombreux investisseurs ont le sentiment qu'ils devraient faire quelque chose avec leurs portefeuilles. Souvent, les grands titres et les experts attisent ces sentiments avec des prédictions de scénarios négatifs et décourageants. Pour l'investisseur à long terme, cependant, planifier ce qui peut arriver est beaucoup plus approprié que d'essayer de prédire l'avenir. Comme d'habitude, nous partagerons le lien avec nos auditeurs.    Mise à jour sur la Gestion Active vs. Passive  François Doyon La Rochelle: Pour notre deuxième sujet d'aujourd'hui, on va vous donner une mise à jour des résultats de la gestion active versus gestion passive pour 2022. Je crois maintenant, qu'après tous les podcasts qu'on a publiés, que la grande majorité de nos auditeurs comprennent que nous croyons dans l'efficacité des marchés et que notre philosophie d'investissement est basée sur les preuves empiriques que l'utilisation de produits d'investissement grandement diversifiés, à faible coût et gérés passivement est la meilleure façon de capturer les rendements du marché et d'augmenter les chances de succès à long terme pour nos clients.  James Parkyn: Exactement et ça fait plus de 20 ans maintenant qu'on a adopté cette approche d'investissement basée sur la conviction que l'investissement actif est un jeu à somme négative ou en anglais « is a negative sum game ». Cependant, ça ne veut pas dire qu'on ne remet pas en question et qu'on ne consulte pas les derniers papiers de recherche et derniers articles pour nous assurer que notre philosophie d'investissement est toujours supportée par des preuves.  François Doyon La Rochelle: Oui, et c'est pourquoi on analyse année après année le rapport SPIVA, de S&P Dow Jones Indices qui mesure les résultats des indices S&P par rapport aux fonds actifs, et aussi le rapport de Morningstar « Active vs Passive Barometer » qui mesure la performance des fonds actifs par rapport à leurs pairs passifs, pour voir si les résultats de la dernière année étaient différents des résultats des années passé. Malheureusement pour les gestionnaires actifs, cette année n'a pas été différente des années précédentes, puisqu'encore une fois les gestionnaires actifs dans leur ensemble n'ont pas été capable de battre leurs comparables passifs.  James Parkyn: Ce que tu souligne la Francois est particulièrement intéressant après une année difficile comme 2022, lorsque les marchés boursiers et obligataires se sont exceptionnellement repliés en même temps. Le vieux discours des gestionnaires actifs est qu'une bonne gestion active surpassera les investissements passifs en période de volatilité des marchés. Donc qu'est ce qui s'est passé réellement en 2022 ?  François Doyon La Rochelle: Eh bien, étant donné la forte volatilité du marché en 2022, on s'attendait à ce que les gestionnaires actifs aient de nombreuses opportunités de battre les stratégies passives.  James Parkyn: En effet, on a couvert les grands événements géopolitiques et économiques dans notre podcast au cours de la dernière année, mais je pense qu'il est utile d'en souligner certains pour que nos auditeurs aient une idée des opportunités que la gestion active aurait pu exploiter pour générer de meilleurs résultats. L'année a commencé avec la guerre en Ukraine et les troubles géopolitiques qui ont suivi, ensuite on a eu l'augmentation des taux d'inflation à des niveaux très élevés ce qui a mené à la réaction rapide et forte des banques centrales pour augmenter les taux d'intérêt. Encore une fois, je ne fais que souligner ici l'évidence, mais pour en revenir à notre sujet, comment est-ce que la gestion active s'est comportée contre la gestion passive l'année dernière ?  François Doyon La Rochelle: He bien, pour répondre à ta question, James, je vais me baser principalement sur le rapport de Morningstar appelé « Active vs passive Barometer » donc en français le baromètre actif versus passif de Morningstar. Ce rapport est assez complet, il couvre près de 8 400 fonds gérés activement aux États-Unis avec environ 15,7 billions de dollars d'actifs sous gestion. Je préfère ce rapport au SPIVA car il mesure le taux de réussite des gestionnaires actifs par rapport aux résultats de fonds gérés passivement et non seulement par rapport à des benchmarks.  James Parkyn: C'est une nuance importante. Les « benchmark ou indices de références » du rapport Morningstar reflètent la performance réelle, nette des frais, des fonds passifs que l'on peut acheter et non simplement la performance d'un indice boursier dans lequel on ne peut pas investir sans encourir de frais.  François Doyon La Rochelle: C'est exact James, et c'est une nuance très importante. Donc si on passe maintenant aux résultats, encore une fois, sur la base du récit selon lequel les gestionnaires actifs feront mieux en période de tension et de volatilité sur le marché, je pense que les résultats pour 2022 sont très peu concluants pour les gestionnaires actifs.  Dans l'ensemble, sur la base des 20 catégories d'investissement différentes rapportées par Morningstar, seuls 40,5% des gestionnaires actifs ont pu battre leurs indices de référence respectifs en 2022. C'est un résultat qui est plus faible qu'en 2021, une très bonne année sur les marchés, quand 51,1 % des gestionnaires actifs ont battu leurs indices de référence.  James Parkyn: Comme tu l'as mentionné, c'est très intéressant car ça va à l'encontre de ce que nous récite la gestion active, qu'ils seront plus performants dans les années difficiles. Donc sur les 20 catégories, quelles étaient les meilleures ?  François Doyon La Rochelle: Sur les 20 catégories différentes, 6 d'entre elles ont un taux de réussite supérieur à 50%. Ce qui veut dire que dans chacune de ces 6 catégories plus de 50% des gestionnaires ont pu battre leurs benchmarks. À titre de comparaison, ce chiffre-là en 2021 était de 7. Cela dit, les catégories qui ont le mieux faites en 2022 étaient, en premier, la catégorie des titres de petite capitalisation de type valeur avec un taux de réussite de 61%, en deuxième, la catégorie de titre de petite capitalisation de type croissance avec un taux de réussite 56,9% et le troisième était la catégorie des actions mondiale avec un taux de réussite de 56 %. Je dois mentionner, en toute objectivité, que la catégorie des actions américaines de grande capitalisation, qui est probablement la catégorie de fonds la plus importante en termes d'actifs sous gestion, figurait également parmi les meilleures catégories en 2022 avec un taux de réussite de 54,1%. Ce qui signifie que 54,1 % des gestionnaires actifs de cette catégorie ont battu leur indice de référence dans la dernière année.  James Parkyn: C'est quoi maintenant les catégories qui ont moins bien faites ?  François Doyon La Rochelle: La pire catégorie parmi les 20 était l'immobilier mondial avec un taux de réussite de seulement 20%, cette catégorie a été légèrement dépassée par la catégorie des obligations d'entreprises avec un taux de réussite de 22,6% et par la catégorie des actions des pays émergents avec un taux de réussite de 23,4%.  James Parkyn: Ce que je trouve intéressant dans ces résultats, c'est que les catégories très sensibles aux taux d'intérêt comme l'immobilier mondial et la catégorie des obligations de sociétés ont été parmi les catégories les moins performantes l'année dernière.  François Doyon La Rochelle: Effectivement, j'ai également été surpris par ces résultats et par le fait que les autres catégories de revenu fixe « ou d'obligations » comme la catégorie d'obligations à moyenne échéance et la catégorie d'obligation à rendement élevé ont également eu de mauvais résultats avec des taux de réussite faibles de 37,9 % et 27,2 % respectivement. Donc eux aussi ont grandement sous-performer leurs homologues passifs.  James Parkyn: Wow, j'aurais pensé que dans une année comme 2022 avec toutes les discussions entourant l'inflation, les taux d'intérêt et les décisions de la banque centrale, que la gestion active aurait prévalu. On se serait attendu à ce que les gestionnaires actifs soient en mesure d'ajuster leurs portefeuilles et de tirer profit de la prévision des variations des taux d'intérêt.  François Doyon La Rochelle: En effet James. J'ai aussi regardé les rapports SPIVA américains et canadiens de 2022 et bien que ces rapports n'analysent pas la performance de la gestion active versus la gestion passive de la même manière que Morningstar, il y avait quand même des points très intéressants dans leur rapport en ce qui concerne l'incapacité des gestionnaires actifs à surperformer leurs indices de références respectifs. Le rapport souligne que les conditions de marché pour les actions et les titres à revenu fixe ont été exceptionnellement difficiles en 2022, soulignant toutefois que ces marchés difficiles ont donné aux gestionnaires actifs de grandes opportunités pour générer une surperformance relative. Des opportunités que la grande majorité des gestionnaire actifs n'ont pas su exploiter.  James Parkyn: Qu'est ce que tu veux dire?  François Doyon La Rochelle: Eh bien, si on examine l'exemple fourni dans le rapport américain de SPIVA, l'indice S&P500 de type croissance et l'indice S&P500 de type valeur, qui sont tous deux des indices d'actions américaines à grande capitalisation, étaient respectivement les indices de référence pour les actions les moins performants et les plus performants en 2022. Le rapport poursuit en mentionnant qu'il y avait plus de 20 points de pourcentage qui séparaient leur performance respective pour l'année. Nos auditeurs réguliers vont se souvenir qu'on a souligné dans notre podcast #48 que les titres de valeur avaient largement surperformé les titres de croissance en 2022.  James Parkyn: C'est vraiment étonnant, j'aurais pensé que ce type de dispersion dans les rendements auraient offert des belles opportunités pour la gestion active.  François Doyon La Rochelle: Oui on aurait pensé, mais les gestionnaires actifs n'ont pas su saisir les opportunités puisque la majorité d'entre eux, qui ont comme indice de référence le S&P500, n'ont pas réussi à le battre. Étant donné que les actions de croissance à grande capitalisation étaient la classe d'actifs la moins performante, un gestionnaire de titre de croissance à grande capitalisation aurait pu simplement acheter des actions d'une autre classe d'actifs pour battre son indice de référence. Malgré ça, près de 74 % des gestionnaires actifs de titre de croissance à grande capitalisation n'ont pas été capable de battre leur indice de référence.  Voici une citation du rapport SPIVA américain, "la perspective pour les meilleur gestionnaires d'actions américaines à grande capitalisation était supérieure à la moyenne et les vents favorables, même pour les gestionnaires moins performant, étaient exceptionnellement bons", le rapport poursuit en disant "un examen des différents segments de marché qui ont été les plus et les moins performants montre qu'ils auraient dû donner l'avantage aux gestionnaires actifs, en particulier grâce à leur capacité à s'écarter des indices pondérées en fonction de la capitalisation boursière qui ont des allocations importantes en actions américaines de grande capitalisation.  James Parkyn: As-tu quelque chose à souligner sur les résultats à plus long terme ?  François Doyon La Rochelle: Eh bien, pour la dernière période de 10 ans, le taux de réussite de la gestion active dans le rapport Morningstar est de 31,5 %, ce qui signifie que seulement 31,5 % des gestionnaires actifs ont pu battre leurs homologues passifs. Si on regarde les résultats sur 20 ans, le taux de réussite chute encore plus bas à 16,2 %. Dans le rapport américain SPIVA, ce que j'ai trouvé intéressant, c'est qu'il donne les points de bascule des quartiles pour les fonds d'actions aux États-Unis. Ce qu'il faut retenir ici, c'est que si vous aviez acheté un fonds indiciel S&P500 ou un fonds indiciel S&P1500, vous auriez effectivement a acheté un fonds qui s'est classé dans le premier quartile de tous les fonds actifs et passifs américains au cours des dernières périodes de 5, 10 et 20 ans.  James Parkyn: Sur la base de ces rapports, je ne pense pas qu'on va changer de sitôt notre façon d'investir.  François Doyon La Rochelle: Non aucun changement en vue, encore une fois, je pense que c'est la preuve qu'à long terme, les investisseurs qui sont disciplinés et qui privilégie la gestion passive obtiendront des meilleurs rendements que les investisseurs actifs.    Conclusion :  François Doyon La Rochelle: Merci James Parkyn d'avoir partagé ton expertise et ton savoir.  James Parkyn: il m'a fait plaisir Francois.  François Doyon La Rochelle: Hé bien c'est tout pour ce 51ième épisode de Sujet Capital!  Nous espérons que vous avez aimé.  N'hésitez pas à nous envoyer vos questions et suggestions. Vous pouvez nous joindre par courriel à sujetcapital@pwlcapital.com .  De plus, si vous aimez notre podcast, partagez-le avec votre famille et vos amis et si vous n'y êtes pas abonné, faites-le SVP.  Encore une fois, merci d'être à l'écoute et joignez-vous à nous pour notre prochain épisode qui sortira le 11 mai.  A bientôt! 

Edward Chancellor is a financial historian, journalist and investment strategist, and the author of The Price of Time, the real story of interest. This is an essential book for investors who want to understand the impact of interest rates. Episode links Edward's website: https://www.edwardchancellor.com/ Link to the book: https://www.edwardchancellor.com/books/the-price-of-time Quotes "If interest is an omnipresent phenomenon and the ultra-low rates wormed their way into all economic and financial activity, then it would follow that the everything bubble turns into the everything burst." "If you know history, this late 1990s stock market looks a hell of a lot like the British Railway Mania of the 1840s. You've got a new technology. People are getting very excited about it. Very, very similar patterns. If you know the history, you are aware of the vulnerability of the markets." "You couldn't really understand the world unless you understood interest. And you have to bear in mind the Fed funds rate of 0% and the negative interest rates in Europe and in Japan. But those zero rates and negative rates were the lowest interest rates in five millennia of history. So that, that obviously has to be a noteworthy factor." "If you think about it, it took two and a half years for losses on subprimes to the Lehman's blowup. Everyone expects that everything happens very quickly, and after the fact, the timeline seems to be compressed. But if you're living through it, actually, it takes much longer." Timestamps 00:00 Teaser 00:19 Introducing Edward Chancellor 01:31 A historian in the investment world 06:21 The study of human activity can't be explained by science 08:46 The historian's edge 14:30 The problem with models 16:46 The consensus view on interest and inflation 22:04 The 5 roles of interest 27:33 Buffett's quote on interest rates and gravity 30:40 Interest rates, investment decisions 33:49 The everything bubble 36:15 Where the cracks show 37:48 Active management 38:19 Areas most at risk 39:48 PE troubles 45:58 We are early in the burst 46:52 regional bank problems 47:56 Bubbles burst slowly About the Podcast Investorama is your guide to the future of investing, without the hype. In each episode, reformed investment banker and marketer, George Aliferis and his guests take a deep dive into a key topic that shapes our financial future. George is a reformed investment banker & marketer, who is now running Orama (podcast & video company), as well as its content arm Investorama, a podcast, YouTube channel and Newsletter.

Edward Chancellor is a financial historian, journalist, and investment strategist.  Ed graduated with first-class honors from Trinity College, Cambridge, and later from Oxford University. He worked for the London merchant bank, Lazard Brothers, and was later an editor at the financial commentary site, Breakingviews of Reuters. Ed was also a senior member of the asset allocation team at GMO, the Boston-based investment firm.   In 2022, Fortune called Ed "one of the greatest financial historians alive". He is noted for his prescient warnings of the last three major economic bubbles in his published works: Devil Take the Hindmost: A History of Financial Speculation (1999), Crunch-Time for Credit? (2005) and The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest (2022).    This podcast is hosted by Rick Ferri, CFA, a long-time Boglehead and investment adviser. The Bogleheads are a group of like-minded individual investors who follow the general investment and business beliefs of John C. Bogle, founder and former CEO of the Vanguard Group. It is a conflict-free community where individual investors reach out and provide education, assistance, and relevant information to other investors of all experience levels at no cost. The organization supports a free forum at Bogleheads.org, and the wiki site is Bogleheads® wiki.    Since 2000, the Bogleheads' have held national conferences in major cities around the country. There are also many Local Chapters in the US and even a few Foreign Chapters that meet regularly. New Chapters are being added on a regular basis. All Bogleheads activities are coordinated by volunteers who contribute their time and talent.     This podcast is supported by the John C. Bogle Center for Financial Literacy, a non-profit organization approved by the IRS as a 501(c)(3) public charity on February 6, 2012. Your tax-deductible donation to the Bogle Center is appreciated.

Today's Episode is a little Special as it is hosted by Bobby Lahiri, a Social Entrepreneur and Innovator in the field of Human Capital. Bringing over 20 years of experience in finance, insurance, taxation and skills in some of the largest corporates in India to the field of Social Entrepreneurship and Training with a very special Guest Speaker Edward Chancellor, who is a leading financial historian. After reading history at Cambridge and Oxford, Edward worked as an investment banker, financial journalist, and fund manager. He is the author of Devil Take the Hindmost: A History of Financial Speculation. His latest book is The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest. A great discussion between two great minds, on money, interest rates and why the rich are so rich. If you care for your money and time. A must-listen to the episode for you. PS: Also because we are talking about money, I have recently discovered an app called My Branz where you can make the best shopping decision before purchasing. Also because we are talking about money, I have recently discovered  an app called My Branz where you can make the best shopping decision with https://www.mybranz.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

To tell the history of interest is to follow the social and economic fabric of societies. Edward Chancellor, financial historian and author, joins the podcast following his recent publication, "The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest". Edward and Trevor discuss the early foundations of interest, the great debate of its utility throughout financial history, and how low interest rates continue to precede financial bubbles and inequalities. Edward Chancellor is a financial historian, journalist and investment strategist. Edward read history at Trinity College, Cambridge, where he graduated with first-class honours, and later gained an M.Phil. in Enlightenment history from Oxford University. In the early 1990s he worked for the London merchant bank, Lazard Brothers. He was later an editor at the financial commentary site, Breakingviews. From 2008 to 2014, Edward was a senior member of the asset allocation team at GMO, the Boston-based investment firm. We'd like to thank our sponsors: Western Copper and Gold is focused on developing the world-class Casino project in Canada's Yukon Territory. The Casino project consists of an impressive 11 billion pounds of copper and 21 million ounces of gold in an overall resource. Western Copper and Gold trades on the TSX and the NYSE American with WRN. Be sure to follow the company via their website, www.westerncopperandgold.com. ASCU is an early-stage copper developer and explorer of the Cactus Mine and its satellite project, Parks/Salyer, both situated on a 4km mine trend on private land in Arizona's porphyry copper district. Opportunity for significant growth and scale exist along the trend, while future capex requirements outlined in the Cactus PEA benefit from significant onsite and nearby access to infrastructure. The Company is led by an executive management team and Board which have a long-standing track record of successful project delivery in North America. For more information, please visit www.arizonasonoran.com. Fireweed Metals is advancing 3 different projects within the Yukon and Northwest Territories, including the flagship Macmillan Pass Project, a large zinc-lead-silver deposit and the Mactung Project, one of the largest and highest-grade tungsten deposits in the world. Fireweed plans to advance these projects through exploration, resource definition, metallurgy, engineering, economic studies and collaboration with indigenous people on the path to production. For more information please visit fireweedmetals.com.

Happy New Year and welcome back to the Investor Download podcast. We're kicking off 2023 with historian Edward Chancellor. You may know him as the author of Devil Take the Hindmost: A History of Financial Speculation, written in 1999, two years before the dotcom bubble burst, or as the author of Crunch Time for Credit? written in 2005, right before the global financial crisis. You might be sensing a pattern here. His new book,The Price of time: the real story of interest, is available now. Our colleagues at The Value Perspective podcast sat down with Edward to discuss his newest book, The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest. This is just a short excerpt from the full episode available on the The Value Perspective feed.  We'll be back with a brand new show next Thursday at 5pm UK time. Until then, enjoy this conversation between Edward and The Value Perspective's very own Juan Torres Rodriguez. NEW EPISODES: The Investor Download is available every Thursday and will be released at 1700 UK time. You can subscribe via Podbean or use this feed URL (https://schroders.podbean.com/feed.xml) in Apple Podcasts and other podcast players. GET IN TOUCH: mailto: Schroderspodcasts@schroders.com find us on Facebook send us a tweet: @Schroders using #investordownload READ MORE: Schroders.com/insights LISTEN TO MORE: schroders.com/theinvestordownload Important information. This podcast is for investment professionals only. This information is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument or to adopt any investment strategy. Any data has been sourced by us and is provided without any warranties of any kind. It should be independently verified before further publication or use. Third party data is owned or licenced by the data provider and may not be reproduced, extracted or used for any other purpose without the data provider's consent. Neither we, nor the data provider, will have any liability in connection with the third party data. Reliance should not be placed on any views or information in the material when taking individual investment and/or strategic decisions. Any references to securities, sectors, regions and/or countries are for illustrative purposes only. The views and opinions contained herein are those of individual to whom they are attributed, and may not necessarily represent views expressed or reflected in other communications, strategies or funds. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and investors may not get back the amounts originally invested. Exchange rate changes may cause the value of any overseas investments to rise or fall. Past Performance is not a guide to future performance and may not be repeated. The forecasts included should not be relied upon, are not guaranteed and are provided only as at the date of issue. Our forecasts are based on our own assumptions which may change.

Happy New Year and welcome back to the Value Perspective podcast. We're kicking off 2023 with historian Edward Chancellor. You may know him as the author of Devil Take the Hindmost: A History of Financial Speculation, written in 1999, two years before the dotcom bubble burst, or as the author of Crunch Time for Credit? written in 2005, right before the global financial crisis. You might be sensing a pattern here. We sat down with Edward to discuss his newest book, The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest. This episode covers: Edward's background in investment banking and his transition into writing, after some time in capital markets' research; biases that impact central bankers; why even historically minded people miss teachings from the past; excess capacity and its impact on investment styles; and finally the topic du jour, Sam Bankman-Fried and the FTX case study from a human behaviour point of view. Enjoy! NEW EPISODES: We release main series episodes every two weeks on Mondays. You can subscribe via Podbean or use this feed URL (https://tvpschroders.podbean.com/feed.xml) in Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts and other podcast players. GET IN TOUCH: send us a tweet: @TheValueTeam  Important information. This podcast is for investment professionals only. This information is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument or to adopt any investment strategy. Any data has been sourced by us and is provided without any warranties of any kind. It should be independently verified before further publication or use. Third party data is owned or licenced by the data provider and may not be reproduced, extracted or used for any other purpose without the data provider's consent. Neither we, nor the data provider, will have any liability in connection with the third party data. Reliance should not be placed on any views or information in the material when taking individual investment and/or strategic decisions. Any references to securities, sectors, regions and/or countries are for illustrative purposes only. The views and opinions contained herein are those of individual to whom they are attributed, and may not necessarily represent views expressed or reflected in other communications, strategies or funds. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and investors may not get back the amounts originally invested. Exchange rate changes may cause the value of any overseas investments to rise or fall. Past Performance is not a guide to future performance and may not be repeated. The forecasts included should not be relied upon, are not guaranteed and are provided only as at the date of issue. Our forecasts are based on our own assumptions which may change.

PUBLISHED ON NOVEMBER 10TH With inflation at its highest in recent memory following years of quantitative easing courtesy of the Bank of England, many are asking if interest rates should have been raised sooner. In this episode of the Swift Half with Snowdon, IEA Head of Lifestyle Economics Christopher Snowdon is joined by financial historian Edward Chancellor to discuss recent monetary policy and his new book, 'The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest'. Edward's book can be purchased here: https://www.amazon.co.uk/Price-Time-Real-Story-Interest/dp/0241569168/ref=sr_1_1?crid=94GZ6JR60X1E&keywords=edward+chancellor+price+of+time&qid=1668097006&sprefix=edward+chancell%2Caps%2C65&sr=8-1 Christopher's review of Edward's book in The Critic can be read here: https://thecritic.co.uk/interesting-times/  

Edward Chancellor is a British financial historian, finance journalist, and former investment strategist. In 2016, the Financial Analysts Journal called him "one of the great financial writers of our era," and in 2022, Fortune called him "one of the greatest financial historians alive." Holding degrees from Oxford and Cambridge, his latest book is titled The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest.

Bloomberg Radio host Barry Ritholtz speaks with Edward Chancellor, who is a well-known financial historian, author, journalist and investment strategist. His most recent book, "The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest," has been longlisted for the FT Business Book of the Year. He is also the author of the New York Times notable book "Devil Take the Hindmost: A History of Financial Speculation," which has been translated into more than a dozen languages, and is a recipient of the George Polk Award for financial reporting. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Inflation. Recession. Bubbles. Interest rates. Sovereign debt crisis. Today, everyone's financial portfolio is falling and that makes people upset about markets and economics. But being angry or frustrated about the market is easy, understanding how and why we arrived at this point  is much more challenging. I was recently helped along in my journey of understanding by a fascinating new book, The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest , by financial journalist and historian Edward Chancellor. The book examines the history of interest rates, going  all the way back to the beginnings of civilization, and takes a particularly close look at periods in history where unusually low interest rates encouraged excesses of financial speculation, like the Japan in the 1980s or the Mississippi Bubble in the 18th century.  Are we in one of those periods now, or have we been? And what might we do about it, if so? Some of this inquiry involves going back to the basics. What is money?  What are interest rates? Why do we have them?Why did ancients feel so strongly about them, and attach so much moral weight to their use?  Indeed, what purpose have they served historically? And most important, what impact are they having today, as central banks are raising them, after a long a period of historically low rates. Interest rates are critical to financial markets. And financial markets are a key hinge that economically connects the present day with the future. Markets allocate money, investment, and capital, not just across existing businesses and ventures, but across time - they connect the realities of today with the possibilities of tomorrow. And the price of that investment, or the price of that risk over time, or the "price of time", is what we measure and call "interest rates". They may seem obscure, but given their outsized influence over the future, they are rather important in the evolution of our economic lives. So what will be the outcome of this inflationary period, where the Federal Reserve is raising rates after dropping them so very low for so many years? Chancellor and I explore that question and others in this deep dive into interest, finance, speculation, risk, and their profound impact on the future of America and the world.  

Dave is President and CIO of KC3 Capital Management. Before that, he was Head of Macro Trading NY at Moore Capital and Managing Director in FX and Macro Trading at SAC Capital. Prior to his buy-side roles, Dave had various senior head of sales roles at Credit Suisse and JP Morgan. In this podcast we discuss: 1) Living through an investment bank merger. 2) The challenges of retaining talent at banks. 3) Moving from the sell-side to the buy-side (hedge funds). 4) What makes Louis Bacon and Moore Capital so successful. 5) The alpha of discretionary trading over quants. 6) The discipline of writing every day when trading markets. 7) How to manage your personal portfolio. 8) The value of allocating to external managers rather than just trading yourself. 8) Favourite sectors. 9) Private equity vs venture capital. 10) How to manage drawdowns. 11) Books mentioned: The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest (Chancellor), 21st Century Monetary Policy (Bernanke), The Panic of 1907 (Bruner), We Were Soldiers Once...And Young (Galloway), The Man Who Solved the Market (Zuckerman), Efficiently Inefficient (Pedersen), The Lords of Easy Money (Leonard).

Edward Chancellor's just published history of interest rates could not be better timed. As the world adjusts to rising rates after decades of falling ones, Chancellor's historical and sometimes polemical account of rates kept too low for too long seems all too prescient. Chancellor's The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest (Atlantic Monthly Press, 2022) is a surprisingly relevant and accessible tool, not only investors but also everyone touched by interest rates. That's all of us.   Daniel Peris is Senior Vice President at Federated Hermes in Pittsburgh. He can be reached at DanielxPeris@gmail.com or via Twitter @HistoryInvestor. His History and Investing blog and Keep Calm & Carry On Investing podcast are here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/new-books-network

Edward Chancellor's just published history of interest rates could not be better timed. As the world adjusts to rising rates after decades of falling ones, Chancellor's historical and sometimes polemical account of rates kept too low for too long seems all too prescient. Chancellor's The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest (Atlantic Monthly Press, 2022) is a surprisingly relevant and accessible tool, not only investors but also everyone touched by interest rates. That's all of us.   Daniel Peris is Senior Vice President at Federated Hermes in Pittsburgh. He can be reached at DanielxPeris@gmail.com or via Twitter @HistoryInvestor. His History and Investing blog and Keep Calm & Carry On Investing podcast are here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/history

Edward Chancellor's just published history of interest rates could not be better timed. As the world adjusts to rising rates after decades of falling ones, Chancellor's historical and sometimes polemical account of rates kept too low for too long seems all too prescient. Chancellor's The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest (Atlantic Monthly Press, 2022) is a surprisingly relevant and accessible tool, not only investors but also everyone touched by interest rates. That's all of us.   Daniel Peris is Senior Vice President at Federated Hermes in Pittsburgh. He can be reached at DanielxPeris@gmail.com or via Twitter @HistoryInvestor. His History and Investing blog and Keep Calm & Carry On Investing podcast are here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/american-studies

Edward Chancellor's just published history of interest rates could not be better timed. As the world adjusts to rising rates after decades of falling ones, Chancellor's historical and sometimes polemical account of rates kept too low for too long seems all too prescient. Chancellor's The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest (Atlantic Monthly Press, 2022) is a surprisingly relevant and accessible tool, not only investors but also everyone touched by interest rates. That's all of us.   Daniel Peris is Senior Vice President at Federated Hermes in Pittsburgh. He can be reached at DanielxPeris@gmail.com or via Twitter @HistoryInvestor. His History and Investing blog and Keep Calm & Carry On Investing podcast are here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/european-studies

Edward Chancellor's just published history of interest rates could not be better timed. As the world adjusts to rising rates after decades of falling ones, Chancellor's historical and sometimes polemical account of rates kept too low for too long seems all too prescient. Chancellor's The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest (Atlantic Monthly Press, 2022) is a surprisingly relevant and accessible tool, not only investors but also everyone touched by interest rates. That's all of us.   Daniel Peris is Senior Vice President at Federated Hermes in Pittsburgh. He can be reached at DanielxPeris@gmail.com or via Twitter @HistoryInvestor. His History and Investing blog and Keep Calm & Carry On Investing podcast are here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/economics

Edward Chancellor's just published history of interest rates could not be better timed. As the world adjusts to rising rates after decades of falling ones, Chancellor's historical and sometimes polemical account of rates kept too low for too long seems all too prescient. Chancellor's The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest (Atlantic Monthly Press, 2022) is a surprisingly relevant and accessible tool, not only investors but also everyone touched by interest rates. That's all of us.   Daniel Peris is Senior Vice President at Federated Hermes in Pittsburgh. He can be reached at DanielxPeris@gmail.com or via Twitter @HistoryInvestor. His History and Investing blog and Keep Calm & Carry On Investing podcast are here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Edward Chancellor's just published history of interest rates could not be better timed. As the world adjusts to rising rates after decades of falling ones, Chancellor's historical and sometimes polemical account of rates kept too low for too long seems all too prescient. Chancellor's The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest (Atlantic Monthly Press, 2022) is a surprisingly relevant and accessible tool, not only investors but also everyone touched by interest rates. That's all of us.   Daniel Peris is Senior Vice President at Federated Hermes in Pittsburgh. He can be reached at DanielxPeris@gmail.com or via Twitter @HistoryInvestor. His History and Investing blog and Keep Calm & Carry On Investing podcast are here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/finance

Edward Chancellor is a British financial historian, financial journalist, and former investment strategist. He wrote the bestselling book Devil Take the Hindmost: A History of Financial Speculation in 1999 and Crunch-Time for Credit in 2005. He has just published The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest, which I rate as the best book I've read this year. Fortune has called Chancellor "one of the greatest financial historians alive, and the Financial Analysts Journal called him "one of the greatest financial writers of our era." Our chat mostly covers The Price of Time. Jim Grant says this work is "A masterpiece of history, analysis--and property understated outrage."

Hosted by Andrew Keen, Keen On features conversations with some of the world's leading thinkers and writers about the economic, political, and technological issues being discussed in the news, right now. In this episode, Andrew is joined by Edward Chancellor, author of The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest. Edward Chancellor is the author of Devil Take the Hindmost: A History of Financial Speculation, a New York Times “Notable Book of the Year” and the specialist report Crunch-Time for Credit?, a prescient analysis of the credit boom in the US and UK. Chancellor has also edited two investment books, Capital Account and Capital Returns. An award-winning financial journalist, Chancellor is currently a columnist for Reuters Breakingviews, and has contributed to many other publications, including the Wall Street Journal, MoneyWeek, New York Review of Books, and Financial Times. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Today's guest is Edward Chancellor, financial historian, author of Devil Take the Hindmost, and previously part of GMO's Asset Allocation team. He's out with a new book yesterday called The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest, which is equal parts history, financial education and philosophy. In today's episode, Edward walks through how interest, debt and money printing are related to things we've seen in society today and the past few years: zombie companies, bubbles, and massive amounts of paper wealth.  Then he narrows in on current day and shares why he believes low interest rates are causing the slow growth environment the world's been stuck in over recent times, along with the bad kind of wealth inequality. ----- Follow Meb on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube For detailed show notes, click here To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com ----- This episode is sponsored by Masterworks. Masterworks is opening the doors to top-tier, blue-chip art investments to everyone. Visit masterworks.com/meb to skip their wait list. ----- Webinar Link ----- Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com ----- Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.  ----- Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!

Edward Chancellor, Author, Journalist and unrivaled Financial Historian, joins us today to discuss the history of Interest, based on his new book, “The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest". We address why it is crucial to pay attention to the historical perspectives of the economy, the allocation of capital and interest and why low interest rates have a feedback effect on the economy, the zombie corporate phenomenon and the impact it has on the economy. We also discuss the longer term consequences of low interest rates and whether bubbles can be beneficial, globalization and how interest rates impacts the fragility of global supply chains, the role of Central Banks and how they affect price stabilization by preventing creative destruction. Lastly, we discuss how the Fed policy of “cleaning up afterwards” creates unintended problems afterwards, how a zero interest policy can pose a threat to capitalism and much more. ---- ---- Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU website). IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/Ultimate (here). And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/flavor (here). Learn more about the Trend Barometer https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends/ (here). Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/reviewttu (iTunes) or https://open.spotify.com/show/2OnOvLbIV3AttbFLxuoaBW (Spotify) so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Kevin on https://twitter.com/kcold1 (Twitter). Follow Edward on https://www.linkedin.com/in/edward-chancellor-315402244/ (LinkedIn) & https://www.amazon.com/Price-Time-Real-Story-Interest/dp/0802160069 (read his book). Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro 02:19 - Introduction to Edward  04:19 - The process of writing his latest book 14:15 - Are we forgetting the economic history? 19:34 - How Edward approaches his study of Interest 25:43 - The impact of interest rates 35:22 - The notion of zombie companies 46:04 - Can bubbles be beneficial? 52:01 - How interest rate affects global supply chains 57:27 - Central banks and price stabilization 01:04:54 - Should Central Banks prevent bubbles? 01:08:39 - Is a zero-interest policy a threat to capitalism? 01:14:14 - Key takeaways from Niels  Copyright © 2022 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/ebooks/ (Click Here) 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I'm really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends/ (Click Here) 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/ (Click Here)...