Podcasts about Elliot Ackerman

This episode of the Foreign Area Officer Podcast delves into the unique background of LTC Lemar Farhad, USA, tracing his journey from a culturally diverse upbringing and Afghan heritage to his pivotal role in the U.S. Army. Lemar shares his transition into the FAO program, starting with his early assignments as an infantry and intelligence officer and detailing his first exposure to U.S. embassies and defense cooperation. Through captivating anecdotes, he highlights his significant assignments, including his work in Special Operations Command Europe, his impactful tenure as the ODC Chief in Kuala Lumpur, and his current role in Korea focusing on non-combatant evacuation operations (NEO). The conversation also explores challenges in leadership, the importance of understanding cultural contexts, and the value of reading to gain diverse perspectives. Lemar's journey exemplifies the integration of strategic thinking and operational expertise, emphasizing the art of diplomacy and the FAO community's crucial role in global defense and cooperation.   Articles: Reimagining Policing in America—A Complete Institutional Overhaul by LTC Lemar Farhad   Books Discussed:  2034 by Elliot Ackerman and Admiral (Ret.) James Stavridis USN 2054 by Elliot Ackerman and Admiral (Ret.) James Stavridis USN Ghost fleet by P.W. Singer   00:00 Introduction and Disclaimer 00:46 Meet the Guest: Lemar Farhad 01:04 Transition to FAO: From Field to Strategy 02:04 First Impressions of FAOs 03:33 The Path to Monterey 04:36 Language Training at DLI 12:12 Unexpected Assignment: Malaysia 13:34 Experiences at the Malaysian Staff College 14:35 Return to the U.S. and Grad School 19:33 First Assignment at CENTCOM 21:20 Challenges and Lessons at CENTCOM 26:21 Mentorship and Professional Development 34:16 Transition to J2 at CENTCOM 36:34 Introduction to Central Asia Desk 37:05 Building Relationships in Central Asia 38:03 Challenges of Language and Culture 39:16 Innovative Security Cooperation Programs 41:21 Impact of COVID-19 on Operations 42:39 Personal Heritage and Career Impact 44:00 Father's Academic Journey 46:40 Early Life and Cultural Identity 47:51 Deployment to Afghanistan Post-9/11 48:53 Unique Assignment with Special Forces 01:05:37 Transition to MI and Multiple Deployments 01:07:52 Reconnecting with the Intelligence Community 01:08:37 Special Operations Command in Europe 01:09:08 First Country Team Assignment in Malaysia 01:11:20 Challenges with a Difficult Deputy 01:14:22 Leadership and Team Dynamics 01:20:50 Current Role in Korea: NEO Operations 01:39:48 The Importance of Reading and Fiction 01:45:28 Final Thoughts and Reflections

We listen back on more than a dozen guests from conversations across 2024.  Guests (in order): Fabian Hinz, research fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies; Bruce Hoffman, senior fellow for counterterrorism and homeland security at the Council on Foreign Relations, and co-author of "God, Guns, and Sedition: Far-Right Terrorism in America"; Karolina Hird, analyst and Russia Deputy Team Lead at the Institute for the Study of War; Elliot Ackerman, co-author of "2054: A Novel"; Mackenzie Eaglen, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, where she works on defense strategy, defense budgets, and military readiness; Ankit Panda, Stanton Senior Fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace; Chris Blattman, economist, political scientist, and Ramalee E. Pearson Professor of Global Conflict Studies at the University of Chicago, and author of the 2022 book, "Why We Fight: The Roots of War and the Paths to Peace"; Mick Ryan, retired Australian Army major general, strategist, and author of “White Sun War: The Campaign for Taiwan"; Dmitri Alperovitch, chairman of the Silverado Policy Accelerator, a geopolitics think-tank in Washington, and author of “World on the Brink: How America Can Beat China in the Race for the Twenty-First Century"; Sam Skove, former Defense One staff writer; Mark Montgomery, a retired U.S. Navy rear admiral, is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies in Washington and senior director of FDD's Center on Cyber and Technology Innovation; Peter Tamte, founder and CEO of Victura; And Brent Sadler, retired Navy captain and senior research fellow at the Heritage Foundation.

Noah Smith joins to discuss what Tulsi Gabbard could do to America, the other anti-qualified nominees, the Penny/Mangione cases, and what Syria should remind us of. Highlights / Lowlights  Mona: Rupert Murdoch's Succession Fiasco, Clive Irving at Vanity Fair Linda: Why Does Pete Hegseth Keep Talking About ‘Warfighters'? Elliot Ackerman at The Free Press. Bill: His WSJ column: Save a Reagan Initiative From Musk and Ramaswamy Damon: When Democracy's Defenders Turn Into Its Gravediggers, Yascha Mounck Noah makes his reasoned pitch as to why rabbits make excellent pets.

A decorated Marine veteran and a video game maker revisit one of the bloodiest battles in U.S. military history.  Guests: Elliot Ackerman, author and contributing writer at The Atlantic; Peter Tamte, founder and CEO of Victura; And Defense One science and tech editor Patrick Tucker. Sources and additional reading: "Goodbye, My Brother," by Elliot Ackerman, writing for Esquire on March 23, 2017; The video game "Six Days in Fallujah"; "Ultra-Realistic Modern Warfare Game Features Awaiting Orders, Repairing Trucks," a satirical video produced in January 2011 by The Onion; "Virtual reality exposure therapy for posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD): a meta-analysis," published August 2019 in the European Journal of Psychotraumatology; "Trauma, treatment and Tetris: video gaming increases hippocampal volume in male patients with combat-related posttraumatic stress disorder," published April 2020 in the Journal of Psychiatry & Neuroscience; And "Putting the Gaming Experience at the Center of the Therapy—The Video Game Therapy® Approach," published June 2023 in Healthcare.  

durée : 00:36:59 - France Culture va plus loin (l'Invité(e) des Matins) - par : Jean Leymarie, Isabelle de Gaulmyn - Le résultat de l'élection présidentielle peut-il ouvrir une nouvelle étape diplomatique qui conduirait les États-Unis à adopter une position de retrait sur la scène internationale ? Elliot Ackerman, écrivain et ancien officier des Marines, revient sur sa double expérience militaire et littéraire. - réalisation : Félicie Faugère - invités : Martin Quencez Directeur du German Marshall Fund et chercheur associé au Conseil Européen des affaires étrangères; Elliot Ackerman écrivain américain, ancien officier dans le corps des marines : il a combattu en Irak et en Afghanistan

durée : 02:30:23 - Les Matins - par : Jean Leymarie, Isabelle de Gaulmyn - Basel Adra, avocat, activiste et réalisateur palestinien / Barbara Régent, avocate au barreau de Paris, spécialisée en droit de la famille / Elliot Ackerman, écrivain américain et Martin Quencez, Directeur du think thank German Marshall Fund. - réalisation : Félicie Faugère

Hey, Scuttlebutt listeners. Thank you for joining us and your continued support. This week we welcome Elliot Ackerman to the show. Elliot is a veteran Marine, infantry, and MARSOC officer, The post Scuttlebutt Ep 166: Elliot Ackerman first appeared on Marine Corps Association.

Hey, Scuttlebutt listeners. Thank you for joining us and your continued support. This week we welcome Elliot Ackerman to the show. Elliot is a veteran Marine, infantry, and MARSOC officer, The post Scuttlebutt Ep 166: Elliot Ackerman first appeared on Marine Corps Association.

  Hour 3 of A&G features... Hurricane Helene victims--are they being neglected?... Biden makes a trip, then forgets about it... There's a new "They're Eating the Pets" song... Joe details Elliot Ackerman's new piece on war readiness... One of Trump's biggest endorsements gets no attention.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

  Hour 3 of A&G features... Hurricane Helene victims--are they being neglected?... Biden makes a trip, then forgets about it... There's a new "They're Eating the Pets" song... Joe details Elliot Ackerman's new piece on war readiness... One of Trump's biggest endorsements gets no attention.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Elliot Ackerman is both a former White House Fellow and Marine. He served five tours of duty in Iraq and Afghanistan, where he received the Silver Star, the Bronze Star for Valor, and the Purple Heart. Ackerman is also an ex–CIA paramilitary officer. Ackerman in the author of numerous books, including the New York Times bestseller 2034: A Novel of the Next World War. His new book is 2054: A Novel. Ackerman explains how the war in Ukraine, and the escalating conflicts in the Middle East and elsewhere, are a frightening vision of the future right out of science fiction where increasingly lethal drones and other new technologies are rewriting the rules of warfare – and reminding us of very old lessons that will need to be relearned again (at a deadly cost). Ackerman reflects on America's combustible domestic politics and the attempt on Trump's life in Pennsylvania, the dangers of conspiracy theories, and how the country's politics and culture are increasingly toxic and what that means long-term for the democracy crisis and the struggle against neofascism and authoritarianism. Chauncey DeVega ponders the question of time and how the next 30 or so days until Election Day will feel like an eternity that will simultaneously go by very quickly. He also shares the lessons he learned in his neighborhood travels about human dignity, poverty, and economic precarity. Chauncey also offers a public health lesson and warning about the dangers of nose spray, hand sanitizer, incense and cheap lighters. And Chauncey DeVega attempts to save you from the new movie “The Substance”, a movie that is more proof of payola and the herd mentality of movie critics and other influentials and cultural tastemakers. WHERE CAN YOU FIND ME? On Twitter: https://twitter.com/chaunceydevega On Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/chauncey.devega My email: chaunceydevega@gmail.com HOW CAN YOU SUPPORT THE CHAUNCEY DEVEGA SHOW? Via Paypal at ChaunceyDeVega.com Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/thechaunceydevegashow

For this episode of the Global Exchange podcast, Colin Robertson talks with David Collenette, Julie Dzerowicz and Andrew Rasiulis about Canada's role in NATO as we enter the Washington NATO summit. // Participants' bios - Hon. David Collenette is chair of the NATO Association of Canada. A former member of parliament he served as Minister of Defence and Transportation in the Chretien governments. - Julie Dzerowicz is chair of the NATO Parliamentary Association and the memher of parliament for Davenport - CGAI Fellow Andrew Rasiulis served in the Canadian Armed Forces and in then in the Defence Department where is was responsible for Eastern European affairs. // Host bio: Colin Robertson is a former diplomat and Senior Advisor to the Canadian Global Affairs Institute, www.cgai.ca/colin_robertson // Read & Watch: - "Age of Revolutions: Progress and Backlash from 1600 to the Present", by Fareed Zakaria: https://www.penguinrandomhouse.ca/books/763565/age-of-revolutions-by-fareed-zakaria/9780393239232 - "The Prince", by Stephen Maher: https://www.simonandschuster.ca/books/The-Prince/Stephen-Maher/9781668024492 - "You Never Know: A Memoir" by Tom Sellick: https://www.harpercollins.ca/9780062945761/you-never-know/ - "2034: A Novel of the Next World War", by Elliot Ackerman and Admiral James Stavridis: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=9781984881250 - "Roads to Oblivion: Triumphs and Tragedies of British Car Makers 1946-56", by Christopher Balfour: https://www.amazon.com/Roads-Oblivion-Triumphs-Tragedies-British/dp/1870979826 // Recording Date: July 4, 2024.

Frank starts the next hour talking about the dangers of fireworks and their effects on animals and the environment. He also talks with Elliot Ackerman, a former marine and intelligence officer who served five tours of duty in Iraq and Afghanistan. He's also a contributing writer for The Atlantic and a best-selling author, whose latest book is 2054. They discuss AI, the military and learning to love Disney. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Frank starts the show this Independence Day with Ask Frank Anything. Frank starts the next hour talking about the dangers of fireworks and their effects on animals and the environment. He also talks with Elliot Ackerman, a former marine and intelligence officer who served five tours of duty in Iraq and Afghanistan. He's also a contributing writer for The Atlantic and a best-selling author, whose latest book is 2054. They discuss AI, the military and learning to love Disney. Frank starts the third hour with denunciations for the week. He moves on to talk with Chris Carosa, a hamburger historian backyard grill master, Yale graduate and award-winning writer, and author of Hamburger Dreams. They talk about the history of burgers and grilling one to perfection. Frank wraps up the show asking about what makes America great. He is also joined by Liz Rattoballi for News You Can Use. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Elliot Ackerman, former Marine and intelligence officer who served five tours of duty in Iraq and Afghanistan. He's also a contributing writer for The Atlantic and a best-selling author, whose latest book is “2054” Topic(s): AI and the military, learning to love Disney Website: https://elliotackerman.com/ Article: https://www.wsj.com/lifestyle/travel/happily-paying-a-mouses-ransom-188f3fd8 Social Media: Twitter: @elliotackerman Instagram: elliot.ackerman Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this Pride Month episode, Navy veteran and author Karen Solt joins co-host V.V. Ganeshananthan and guest co-host Matt Gallagher to talk about her experience of being gay while serving in the military. Solt, who retired as a senior chief petty officer in 2006 and served both before and during “Don't Ask, Don't Tell,” talks about the Clinton-era policy that prohibited the harassment of gay service members while requiring that they stay closeted. Solt explains the impossible position gay military members were in before and during DADT, as they faced questioning from investigators, the threat of losing their jobs if found out, and being separated from their partners rather than being moved together as their straight counterparts often were. Solt reads from her book, Hiding for My Life: Being Gay in the Navy. To hear the full episode, subscribe through iTunes, Google Play, Stitcher, Spotify, or your favorite podcast app (include the forward slashes when searching). You can also listen by streaming from the player below. Check out video versions of our interviews on the Fiction/Non/Fiction Instagram account, the Fiction/Non/Fiction YouTube Channel, and our show website: https://www.fnfpodcast.net/ This episode of the podcast was produced by Anne Kniggendorf. Karen Solt Hiding for My Life: Being Gay in the Navy Others Fiction/Non/Fiction Season 7, Episode 30: “Tracie McMillan on the Myth of Colorblindness” Fiction/Non/Fiction Season 2, Episode 21: “Elliot Ackerman and Anuradha Bhagwati on the Role of the Military in American Politics” The Lieutenant by Andrew Dubus Roger & Me A Former Marine Looks Back on Her Life in a Male-Dominated Military, by V.V. Ganeshananthan, The New York Times | April 17, 2024 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Join Ocean House owner, actor, and bestselling author Deborah Goodrich Royce for a conversation with New York Times bestselling authors and mother/son duo Elliott Ackerman and Joanna Leedom-Ackerman. They discuss their books: Joanne Leedom-Ackerman's The Far Side of the Desert and Elliott Ackerman's 2054. About the Authors:  Elliot Ackerman is the author of the novels Halcyon, Red Dress in Black and White, Waiting for Eden, Dark at the Crossing, Green on Blue, and the memoirs The Fifth Act and Places and Names. His books have been nominated for numerous awards, including the National Book Award, the Andrew Carnegie Medal in fiction and nonfiction, and the Dayton Literary Peace Prize. He is a contributing writer at The Atlantic and a Marine veteran, having served five tours of duty in Iraq and Afghanistan, where he received the Silver Star, the Bronze Star for Valor, and the Purple Heart. About 2054: From the acclaimed authors of the runaway New York Times bestseller 2034 comes another explosive work of speculative fiction set twenty years further in the future, at a moment when a radical leap forward in artificial intelligence combines with America's violent partisan divide to create an existential threat to the country, and the world It is twenty years after the catastrophic war between the United States and China that brought down the old American political order. A new party has emerged in the US, holding power for over a decade. Efforts to cement its grip have resulted in mounting violent resistance. The American president has control of the media but is beginning to lose control of the streets. Many fear he'll stop at nothing to remain in the White House. Suddenly, he collapses in the middle of an address to the nation. After an initial flurry of misinformation, the administration reluctantly announces his death. A cover-up ensues, conspiracy theories abound, and the country descends into a new type of civil war. A handful of elite actors from the worlds of computer science, intelligence, and business have a fairly good idea of what happened. All signs point to a profound breakthrough in AI, of which the remote assassination of an American president is hardly the most game-changing ramification. The trail leads to an outpost in the Amazon rainforest, the last known whereabouts of the tech visionary who predicted this breakthrough. As some of the world's great powers, old and new, state and nonstate alike, struggle to outmaneuver one another in this new Great Game of scientific discovery, the outcome becomes entangled with the fate of American democracy. Combining a deep understanding of AI, biotech, and the possibility of a coming Singularity, along with their signature geopolitical sophistication, Elliot Ackerman and Admiral James Stavridis have once again written a visionary work. 2054 is a novel that reads like a thriller, even as it demands that we consider the trajectory of our society and its potentially calamitous destination. Joanne Leedom-Ackerman is a novelist, short story writer, and journalist. Her works of fiction include Burning Distance, The Dark Path to the River, and No Marble Angels. She has published PEN Journeys: Memoir of Literature on the Line and was the editor for The Journey of Liu Xiaobo: From Dark Horse to Nobel Laureate. Former International Secretary of PEN International, she is a Vice President of PEN International and a former board member and Vice President of PEN American Center. She serves on the boards of Refugees International, the International Center for Journalists, the American Writers Museum, and Words Without Borders and is an emeritus director of Poets and Writers, the PEN/Faulkner Foundation, and Human Rights Watch and an emeritus trustee of Brown University and Johns Hopkins University. Joanne is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and the Texas Institute of Letters. A former The Christian Science Monitor reporter, Joanne has taught writing at New York University, City University of New York, Occidental College, and the University of California at Los Angeles extension. About The Far Side of the Desert: A terrorist attack—a kidnapping—the ultimate vacation gone wrong Sisters Samantha and Monte Waters are vacationing together in Santiago de Compostela, Spain, enjoying a festival and planning to meet with their brother, Cal—but the idyllic plans are short-lived. When terrorists' attacks rock the city around them, Monte, a U.S. foreign service officer, and Samantha, an international television correspondent, are separated, and one of them is whisked away in the frenzy. The family mobilizes, using all their contacts to try to find their missing sister, but to no avail. She has vanished. As time presses on, the outlook darkens. Can she be found, or is she a lost cause? And, even if she returns, will the damage to her and those around her be irreparable? Moving from Spain to Washington to Morocco to Gibraltar to the Sahara Desert, The Far Side of the Desert is a family drama and political thriller that explores links of terrorism, crime, and financial manipulation, revealing the grace that ultimately foils destruction.  

On this episode of Currently Reading, Kaytee and Meredith are discussing: Bookish Moments: book recommendations and…. book recommendations! Current Reads: all the great, interesting, and/or terrible stuff we've been reading lately Deep Dive: books we wish we read sooner The Fountain: we visit our perfect fountain to make wishes about our reading lives Show notes are time-stamped below for your convenience. Read the transcript of the episode (this link only works on the main site) .  .  .  .  .  :10 - Bite Size Intro 1:44 - Send us your listener presses! Here's what we need: A voice memo with - Your name, location, book title and author, “Here's the setup”, and why you love it. Three minutes or less please!! Email those to currentlyreadingpodcast@gmail.com  4:36 - Our Bookish Moments of the Week 8:10 - Lore Olympus by Rachel Smythe 8:53 - Our Current Reads 9:09 -  A Talent for Murder by Peter Swanson (Meredith) 11:05 - Eight Perfect Murders by Peter Swanson 12:38 - The Duke Gets Desperate by Diana Quincy (Kaytee) 15:52 - The Duchess Deal by Tessa Dare 16:30 - 2034 by Elliot Ackerman and James Stavridis (Meredith) 20:54 - 2054 by Elliot Ackerman and James Stavridis 21:50 - New Nigeria County by Clare Brown (Kaytee, audio only) 22:05 - @clarabelletoks on Instagram 22:37 - libro.fm 26:51 - A Better World by Sarah Langan (Meredith) 29:34 - Good Neighbors by Sarah Langan 31:19 - High Tide in Tucson by Barbara Kingsolver (Kaytee) 31:39 - Animal, Vegetable, Miracle by Barbara Kingsolver 34:55 - Deep Dive: Books We Wish We Read Sooner 35:44 - Anne of Green Gables by L.M. Montgomery 36:34 - A  Little Life by Hanya Yanagahira 37:33 - The Ten Thousand Doors of January by Alix E. Harrow 37:50 - A Gentleman in Moscow by Amor Towles 38:55 - The Vaster Wilds by Lauren Groff 39:32 - And Then There Were None by Agatha Christie 40:27 - A Little Princess by Frances Hodgson Burnett 40:29 - The Secret Garden by Frances Hodgson Burnett 40:51 - East of Eden by John Steinbeck 40:52 - Lonesome Dove by Larry McMurty 40:58 - The House of Mirth by Edith Wharton 41:09 - The Count of Monte Cristo by Alexandre Dumas 41:47 - Roots by Alex Haley 42:01 - 11/22/63 by Stephen King 42:05 - On Writing by Stephen King 43:20 - The Shell Seekers by Rosamunde Pilcher 43:50 - The Shadow of the Wind by Carlos Ruiz Zafon 44:05 - Song of Achilles by Madeline Miller 44:11 - Circe by Madeline Miller 46:21 - Meet Us At The Fountain 47:09 - The Sparrow by Mary Doria Russell 50:06 - I wish more people would read The Sparrow by Mary Doria Russell. (Meredith) 50:47 - I wish books would tell us if they are right for us when we pick them up. (Kaytee) Support Us: Become a Bookish Friend | Grab Some Merch Shop Bookshop dot org | Shop Amazon Bookish Friends Receive: The Indie Press List with a curated list of five books hand sold by the indie of the month. June's IPL comes to us from our anchor store Schuler Books in West Bloomfield, Michigan. All Things Murderful with Meredith and Elizabeth - special content for the scary-lovers, brought to you with the special insights of an independent bookseller From the Editor's Desk with Kaytee and Bunmi Ishola - a quarterly peek behind the curtain at the publishing industry The Bookish Friends Facebook Group - where you can build community with bookish friends from around the globe as well as our hosts Connect With Us: The Show: Instagram | Website | Email | Threads The Hosts and Regulars: Meredith | Kaytee | Mary | Roxanna Affiliate Disclosure: All affiliate links go to Bookshop unless otherwise noted. Shopping here helps keep the lights on and benefits indie bookstores. Thanks for your support!

Elliot Ackerman is a widely respected writer. His reach extends across fiction and non-fiction, from novels to essays to memoir and commentary. He is an exemplar of Theodore Roosevelt's ideal of service combining thought and action.In this episode of the Serve to Lead podcast, Ackerman discusses his bestselling new book, 2054: A Novel. This is a successor to 2034: A Novel of the Next World War. Each is coauthored with Admiral James Stavridis. A third volume, 2084, is also planned.Ackerman shares his views of the value of history and literature in comprehending the unprecedented challenges of our moment of global change and unrest—ranging from great power competition to climate disruption to the rise of new technologies, including artificial intelligence and biotechnology. He also reflects on how longstanding notions of spheres of influence may be transformed in our interconnected world. Get full access to The Next Nationalism at jamesstrock.substack.com/subscribe

Elliot Ackerman has an intriguing essay in this issue of Liberties Quarterly on the use and abuse of mercenaries throughout history. Linking the history of the British in India, the US in Afghanistan and Russia in contemporary Ukraine, he ask what it means when mercenaries replace regular soldiers to fight supposedly “national” wars? It's not usually good news, he suggests, arguing that for America to remain both a militarily and morally great power in the 21st century, it should consider reestablishing national service for all citizens, irrespective of gender, class or race. ELLIOT ACKERMAN is the New York Times bestselling author of the novels Halcyon, 2034, Red Dress In Black and White, Waiting for Eden, Dark at the Crossing, and Green on Blue, as well as the memoir The Fifth Act: America's End in Afghanistan, and Places and Names: On War, Revolution and Returning. His books have been nominated for the National Book Award, the Andrew Carnegie Medal in both fiction and nonfiction, and the Dayton Literary Peace Prize among others. He is a contributing writer at The Atlantic and Marine veteran who served five tours of duty in Iraq and Afghanistan, where he received the Silver Star, the Bronze Star for Valor, and the Purple Heart. He divides his time between New York City and Washington, D.C.Named as one of the "100 most connected men" by GQ magazine, Andrew Keen is amongst the world's best known broadcasters and commentators. In addition to presenting KEEN ON, he is the host of the long-running How To Fix Democracy show. He is also the author of four prescient books about digital technology: CULT OF THE AMATEUR, DIGITAL VERTIGO, THE INTERNET IS NOT THE ANSWER and HOW TO FIX THE FUTURE. Andrew lives in San Francisco, is married to Cassandra Knight, Google's VP of Litigation & Discovery, and has two grown children.Keen On is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit keenon.substack.com/subscribe

Elliot Ackerman and Admiral James Stavridis, USN (Ret.) return to the show and chat with Daniel Ford and NovelClass' Dave Pezza about their new book 2054.  To learn more about Elliot Ackerman, visit his official website. To learn more about Admiral James Stavridis, visit his official website. Also listen to our last conversation with the pair in Episode 476. Writer's Bone is proudly sponsored by The Bookshop: Lou's Literary Line and Libro.fm.

With AI's capabilities now beginning to conjure visions reminiscent of science fiction, it's fiction writers who are pointing the way to where these tools will take us in decades to come. 2054, the second of a trilogy of books depicting the AI-infused geopolitical landscape of decades not so far away is co-written by former marine and New York Times bestselling author and writer Elliot Ackerman, and Admiral Jim Stavridis, who spent more than 30 years in the U.S. Navy. The duo's story picks up 20 years after a catastrophic war between the US and China has brought down the old American political order. Joining Ackerman to discuss it for this episode is Carl Miller, co-founder of the Centre for the Analysis of Social Media at the think tank Demos, and author of The Death of the Gods: The New Global Power Grab. If you'd like to become a Member and get access to all of our longer form interviews and Members-only content, just visit intelligencesquared.com/membership to find out more. For £4.99 per month you'll also receive: - Full-length and ad-free Intelligence Squared episodes, wherever you get your podcasts - Bonus Intelligence Squared podcasts, curated feeds and members exclusive series - 15% discount on livestreams and in-person tickets for all Intelligence Squared events - Our member-only newsletter The Monthly Read, sent straight to your inbox ... Or Subscribe on Apple for £4.99: - Full-length and ad-free Intelligence Squared podcasts - Bonus Intelligence Squared podcasts, curated feeds and members exclusive series ... Already a subscriber? Thank you for supporting our mission to foster honest debate and compelling conversations! Visit intelligencesquared.com to explore all your benefits including ad-free podcasts, exclusive bonus content and early access. ... Subscribe to our newsletter here to hear about our latest events, discounts and much more. https://www.intelligencesquared.com/newsletter-signup/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Subscribe to The Realignment to access our exclusive Q&A episodes and support the show: https://realignment.supercast.com/a16z Podcast: a16z Podcast | Andreessen HorowitzREALIGNMENT NEWSLETTER: https://therealignment.substack.com/PURCHASE BOOKS AT OUR BOOKSHOP: https://bookshop.org/shop/therealignmentEmail Us: realignmentpod@gmail.comFoundation for American Innovation: https://www.thefai.org/posts/lincoln-becomes-faiFormer NATO Allied Supreme Commander Admiral James Stavridis and Elliot Ackerman, co-authors of 2054: A Novel and 2034: A Novel of the Next World War, return to The Realignment. In a follow-up to their fictional exploration of a military conflict between the U.S. and China in the 2030s, Stavridis and Ackerman explore how artificial intelligence, advances in biotechnology, fractious politics, and an evolving world order defined by nation-states and corporate power could shape the midpoint of the 21st century.

Zibby is joined by New York Times bestselling authors Elliot Ackerman and Admiral James Stavridis to discuss 2054, an explosive work of speculative fiction set twenty years after their first book, 2034, that shows a future America grappling with a violent partisan divide and a radical leap forward in AI. The co-authors discuss the inspiration behind this novel, their collaborative writing process, and the relevance of the book's themes (like political polarization and the potential consequences of unchecked technologicalprogress) to contemporary society. They also reveal the potential for adaptation into film or television!Purchase on Bookshop: https://bit.ly/3va2QezShare, rate, & review the podcast, and follow Zibby on Instagram @zibbyowens! Now there's more! Subscribe to Moms Don't Have Time to Read Books on Acast+ and get ad-free episodes. https://plus.acast.com/s/moms-dont-have-time-to-read-books. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

As we begin to see the effects of AI on the American political process and society, where will this trajectory lead? In their new novel 2054, the follow-up to 2034, authors Elliot Ackerman and Admiral James Stavridis imagine a moment when a radical leap forward in technology combines with America's violent partisan divide to create an existential threat to the country, and the world. How will the world's great powers react in a new era of scientific discovery? In this virtual book talk three years after their discussion on 2034, Ackerman, Stavridis, and Doorstep co-hosts Nikolas Gvosdev and Tatiana Serafin discuss AI, biotech, geopolitics, and a dark yet possible future that we must do all we can to avoid. For more, please go to: https://carnegiecouncil.co/doorstep-2054

2034, the first novel by Elliot Ackerman and Admiral James Stavridis, chronicled a nuclear conflict between China and the U.S. Now, their sequel 2054 takes a look at the country two decades later. The President is suddenly assassinated giving a speech, which sparks a flood of conspiracy theories, digitally-altered images and horrifying technological discoveries. In today's episode, the authors speak with NPR's Mary Louise Kelly about the relationship between technology and American institutions, and how destruction is sometimes an inevitable part of progress. To listen to Book of the Day sponsor-free and support NPR's book coverage, sign up for Book of the Day+ at plus.npr.org/bookoftheday Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

Admiral James Stavridis, a retired four-star admiral in the U.S. Navy and former commander of NATO and SOUTHCOM, and award-winning author Elliot Ackerman, contributor at The Atlantic and veteran of the U.S. Marines, join the podcast to discuss their new novel, “2054,” which explores where the United States could find itself in the middle of this century. “2054” is a sequel to New York Times bestseller “2034.”

From China and Artificial Intelligence to the death of a President and the possibility of a coming Singularity, retired four-star U.S. Naval Officer Admiral James Stavridis and Marine Veteran Elliot Ackerman join Anthony to discuss their brand-new book, 2054. With another book in the trilogy still to come, what existential threat could be next…Advertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brandsPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

The author and Marine veteran discusses the future of technology, the promise of AI, the perils of toxic politics, and other themes packed into his latest work of speculative fiction.  Guest: Elliot Ackerman, co-author of "2054: A Novel," which was published on March 12. Find our previous discussions with Ackerman here: Ep. 107: The legacy of America's Afghan war; And Ep. 79: “2034: A Novel of the Next World War”.

From the acclaimed authors of the runaway New York Times bestseller "2034" comes another explosive work of speculative fiction set twenty years further in the future, at a moment when a radical leap forward in artificial intelligence combines with America's violent partisan divide to create an existential threat to the country, and the world. Retired US Navy Admiral James Stavridis, a long-time friend of the show, is co-author (with Elliot Ackerman) of "2054: A Novel." Original air date 12 March 2024. The book was published 12 March 2024.

Hugh reviews tomorrow's vote in the House on a bill to ban or force the sale of TikTok and discusses it with Senator Tom Cotton and David Drucker. Plus, candidate for Congress in VA's 7th Derrick Anderson, Senate candidate from Ohio Frank LaRose, and co-authors Admiral James Stavridis and Elliot Ackerman on their new novel “2054.”See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Admiral James Stavridis, former Supreme Allied Commander of NATO, and Elliot Ackerman, a five-tour Marine combat veteran of Iraq and Afghanistan, both had successful second careers as writers. When they teamed up to write novels meditating on an uncertain future, first with 2034 and now with 2054, they lit up the bestseller charts. Pulling back the curtain on their latest collaboration, Stavridis and Ackerman join us to decode the looming shadow of artificial intelligence, and their writing process. https://www.ice.com/insights/conversations/inside-the-ice-house

John J. Miller is joined by Elliot Ackerman to discuss '2054,' a book he co-authored with Admiral James Stavridis.

Buy Tickets for the Stand Up PodJam Stand Up is a daily podcast. I book,host,edit, post and promote new episodes with brilliant guests every day. Please subscribe now for as little as 5$ and gain access to a community of over 700 awesome, curious, kind, funny, brilliant, generous souls Admiral James Stavridis is a retired four-star U.S. naval officer. He is currently Partner and Vice Chair, Global Affairs of The Carlyle Group, a global investment firm. He is also 12th Chair of Rockefeller Foundation board.  Previously he served for five years as the 12th Dean of The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University. He led the NATO Alliance in global operations from 2009 to 2013 as 16th Supreme Allied Commander with responsibility for Afghanistan, Libya, the Balkans, Syria, counter piracy, and cyber security. He also served as Commander of U.S. Southern Command, with responsibility for all military operations in Latin America from 2006-2009. He earned more than 50 medals, including 28 from foreign nations in his 37-year military career. Earlier in his military career he commanded the top ship in the Atlantic Fleet, winning the Battenberg Cup, as well as a squadron of destroyers and a carrier strike group – all in combat. In 2016, he was vetted for Vice President by Hillary Clinton and subsequently invited to Trump Tower to discuss a cabinet position in the Trump Administration. Admiral Stavridis earned a PhD in international relations and has published twelve books and thousands of articles in leading journals around the world. His books have sold hundreds of thousands of copies worldwide and have been published in 22 languages. His 2012 TED talk on global security has over one million views. Admiral Stavridis is a  Bloomberg opinion columnist, and Chief International Security Analyst for NBC News, and has tens of thousands of connections on the social networks. He is proud to have been sanctioned by the Kremlin on November 11, 2022 — in recognition of his enormous contempt for Vladimir Putin's regime. 2054 Admiral Stavridis, and his co-author Elliot Ackerman look into the future and tell a riveting tale, a sequel to their best-selling novel, 2034. It is twenty years after the catastrophic war between the United States and China that brought down the old American political order. A new party has emerged in the US, one that's held power for over a decade. Efforts to cement its grip have resulted in mounting violent resistance. The American president has control of the media, but he is beginning to lose control of the streets. Many fear he'll stop at nothing to remain in the White House. Suddenly, he collapses in the middle of an address to the nation. After an initial flurry of misinformation, the administration reluctantly announces his death. A cover-up ensues, conspiracy theories abound, and the country descends into a new type of civil war. A handful of elite actors from the worlds of computer science, intelligence, and business have a fairly good idea what happened. All signs point to a profound breakthrough in AI, of which the remote assassination of an American President is hardly the most game-changing ramification. The trail leads to an outpost in the Amazon rainforest, the last known whereabouts of the tech visionary who predicted this breakthrough. As some of the world's great powers, old and new, state and nonstate alike, struggle to outmaneuver one another in this new great game of scientific discovery, the outcome becomes entangled with the fate of American democracy. Combining a deep understanding of AI, biotech, and the possibility of a coming singularity, along with their signature geopolitical sophistication, Elliot Ackerman and Admiral James Stavridis have once again written a visionary work. 2054 is a novel that reads like a thriller even as it demands that we consider the trajectory of our society and its potentially calamitous destination. The Stand Up Community Chat is always active with other Stand Up Subscribers on the Discord Platform. Join us Thursday's at 8EST for our Weekly Happy Hour Hangout! Pete on Tik Tok Pete on YouTube Pete on Twitter Pete On Instagram Pete Personal FB page Stand Up with Pete FB page All things Jon Carroll   

In which Elliot Ackerman grapples with the military-industrial complex.

John Stoltzfus, Oppenheimer Chief Investment Strategist, says the consumer and the jobs market will play an important role in 2024. Elliot Ackerman, US Marine Corps Veteran & Former White House Fellow, overviews the latest in the Middle East and Indo-Pacific as global geopolitical tensions continue to rise. Sarah Hunt, Alpine Saxon Woods Chief Market Strategist, says six rate cuts could indicate a weaker economic scenario. Thierry Wizman, Macquarie Global Interest Rates and Currencies Strategist, advises holding a long position on oil. Doug Kass, Seabreeze Partners President, details the catalysts that could drag down stocks in his '10 surprises of 2024.' Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance  Full Transcript: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane, along with Jonathan Farrow and Lisa Abramowitz. Join us each day for insight from the best and economics, geopolitics, finance and investment. Subscribe to Bloomberg Surveillance on demand on Apple, Spotify and anywhere you get your podcasts, and always on Bloomberg dot Com, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App. John Stolfus joints chief investment Strategist at op co Op and I'm our asset management and we speak to him about the bullmarket he nailed last year and continues to nail this year. John, I'm going to take it back to the analog of the middle seventies, a horrific recession, the leap in nineteen seventy five, and then a follow on in nineteen seventy seven. It's twenty twenty four, a follow on bullmarket. I think in many ways it is, Tom. I think the question here really is, or rather the difference is, it's a substantially different background in terms of a digitalized global society for business as a consumer and what was back then, which was essentially an analog world. And I think things get digested much quicker. I think that the data is a better quality. And because we've been in crisis in an out of crisis since two thousand and eight, all the players as well as you know, the traders as well as the investors are more experienced with dealing with volatility. John, I think what's so important here is only Stolphus is talking about last year was a prelude. I just think that's so important. Fifty two hundred price target year rent this year, John, let's build on that. You and I have talked about this a few times in the last few months, and I've appreciate it. Can we just address it right now? How dependent that call is on interest rate cuts from the feder Reserve? Not much really. You know, we're not of the camp it's looking for six cuts this year in twenty twenty four. We're looking for perhaps one or two. And we're not looking for the first half for cuts. We think it'll happen in the second half of the year, and lightly later rather than earlier. In the second half. To us, the Fed has been remarkably sensitive in practicing its mandate. You know, where as able to comy and full employment is described by unemployment between three and four percent, and we think it wants to keep it that way, and so that's what we're looking at A little bit different. We like the Fed. Ironically, very few people do we think the Fed has done. It shows the Ben Bernank legacy carried on through Jerome Powell in the sense of communication and clarity. So it might not necessarily the rally my not be dependent on j. Powell. But how much is it dependent on the Central Bank of Tim Cook? I would have to say, perhaps I'll keep it away from a company specific here, but I would say certainly a business, the consumer and the jobs market will play an important role this year. Keyword to watch for is resilience when we look at economic data, what we're looking at is for things to show resilience, and naturally is a challenging environment when you're making transitions and you have the levels of trouble around the world. The geopolitical risks seems to keep ramping up by the day. But consider where business plays out in this where the opportunities are both this cyclical point where we are on the calendar, as well as the secular trends that are driving potential growth for all eleven sectors. Okay, So in other words, his text still lead me. I guess if that's the question at a time, or that accounted for fifteen percent of the twenty four percent game of the SMP last year at least, I think tech certainly remains a major participant in this, But I think what we need to watch well, of course communications services, which is about fifty percent tech related, you also have when you look at the other sectors, just think about industrials and all the technology in that. And it's a good customer of technology, whether it's it's sensors of robotics or what have you, and the cloud, big data and all that aon. So when we look at this, it's you know, whether it's it's a utility company, whether it's a materials company, whether it's a pharmaceutical or a biotech. Technology is where it's at. So we can but think. The other reason is last year Tech was was fabulous it's performance because it had been so brutalized in twenty twenty two when the Bears sold all of Tech, the long duration they sold because they were worried about red dancings, but they sold the good stuff that was highly profitable positive cash low, create products, and deeply embedded in the lives of business and the consumer. John the cliche is the boat has left the duck. I would guess a very large percent of the surveillance audience feels like they missed twenty twenty three. How do you get back in the game if the boat's left the duck. Yeah, Tom, I would say for the people who missed this, I would say it's a question of layering in. That's not back up the truck. At these levels, consider opportunities that show up when you get some weakness in names that may have gotten away from you. Look for babies that get grown out with the bathwater in downdrafts to add to positions that you're building, and in essence, what you want to avoid is just blindly buying deps. You want to be selective, even within what appears to be a nicely broadening rally. After as Lisa pointed out earlier, I mean we're still back to the future in terms of the prices of stocks. In many cases outside of the magnificent seventy eight there you know they've got it would look like they've got plenty of headroom available to move higher in so many ways. We had a decade in a year. As Lisha and I discussed a little bit earlier on the program, John want to put to catch up with you, sir, Happy new year. John stelfiestet of Oppenheim arrasted management. Right now, we need perspective, and we get it from someone gifted. He's served the nation in the Marine Corps, also a White House fellow, and critically he is a king of speculative fiction with James Travitis, Elliott Ackerman's must read two thou thirty four, boy is out of mustard right now, given the Philippines, given the South China Sea, and we eagerly anticipate two thousand and fifty four that you'll see in March. Elliott Eckerman joins us this morning. Elliott, if this is not speculative fiction, it is reality in the Red Sea. What is lost in the press coverage? I think the one thing that is often lost is we have a tendency to focus kind of specifically on military events while losing perspective that all military events happen in a political overlay. You know, ultimately these are political questions. What's going on in Taiwan? What's going on in Ukraine, what's going on in Israel. And the longer these wars play out, the more and more central the politics of the war it self become. And what the outcome is going to be the heart of your fiction with the Admiral st Vetus is things happen suddenly and then in sequence, do we have the ships in place against these terrorists whatever you want to call them. Do we have the process in place where unexpected bad things can happen in sequence? I think when it comes to the Middle East and the challenges that we're seeing there, yes we do. And that is a situation where we the United States vis the Iranians. We are not facing a peer level adversary necessarily in Iran. And I agree with Terry's comments that the underappreciated conflict here is Taiwan. And when it comes to Taiwan, you know, the United States does not have the forces in place, at least peer level forces in place that could meet Chinese aggression across the Taiwan Straits, and that's one of the huge challenges that we face it. But the Chinese would be fighting that conflict in their backyard and we would be fighting it from across the Pacific Ocean. I want you to elaborate a little bit on the point that you just made that all of these international conflicts have real domestic political implications. What are some of the ramifications that we've seen over the past year, how the conflicts have developed, and how public opinion has shaped the inaction that we're currently seeing in Congress to continue providing aid. I think when we go around the go around the world, if we look at Ukraine right now, I would argue that that's probably a war that's not going to be decided on the battlefield as those conditions stagnate. Is a war that's going to be decided at the ballot box. And I think in Ukraine, in Israel, as we see this war is now extending in two months, I think domestic political considerizations in Israel are going to determine the outcome of their war with Hamas. And I think when we look at the United States, you know, the elephant in the room is we have an election. It's going to occur this fall, and how that election unfolds will be determinatives of those conflicts. And lastly, when we look at Taiwan, I mean, in two weeks the Taiwanese people are having a presidential election, and the outcome of that election will certainly affect China's perceptions on what they should do in Taiwan. How different is the foreign policy of Donald Trump versus President Biden. I think the foreign policy of Donald Trump is much more unpredictable, and I think the foreign policy of Joe Biden, as we've seen it, as much more. It has it much more incremental. So I don't think anyone can necessarily say what Donald Trump's policies would be on any three of these conflicts Taiwan, Ukraine, or Israel, Whereas I think we've seen sort of a more consistent approach that Joe Biden has applied. I mean, I look, Elliott where we are, and it's about public service. There's a lot of people watching this across this nation that have loved ones. That's the loved ones on long tours of duty. I know that the Ford is coming back from the Mediterranean. Are we fit now in our defense budget for multiple wars you mentioned Taiwan. Let's say our war Ukraine, our war Iran, maybe our war China. Do we have a budget near capable of meeting those three threats? I think we're I think we have to take a very very hard look not only at the budget and the financial resources that we're applying, but you know, also the intellectual resources. And that's actually where I have the most concerns. You know, is a what a war against China look like a repeat of the Second World War, in which the coin of the realm and naval battle or aircraft carriers eighty years after the aircraft carrier became the corner of the realm. And I don't know that that is necessarily the case. You know, we've seen in places like Ukraine that the Ukrainians have been very effective in sinking Russian ships of the line with shore based missiles. And so I know, I'm a marine veter in my own service right now is in the midst of doing some real strategic a real strategic reset about what it would look like to fight a revisited island hopping campaign in the South China Sea, and they're restructuring the entire Marine Corps to do that. So I think there's a budgetary question, but there's also an intellectual question of you know, what will the wars of the future look like, and that work needs to be done now, and it's going to force some American military institutions to transform in ways that are going to be very uncomfortable with the war of the future. Elliott, what's a more effective strategy one that's predictable or one that's unpredictable. Well, I think in terms of your battle plans, you always want to be unpredictable. The word I would use is one that is adaptive. Because it's very difficult to predict what the war the future is going to be. It's most essential not to get the prediction right, but to get the prosture right so that your forces can adapt to whatever the next conflict looks like. And to use an analogy from the Second World War, at the outset of the Second World War, in terms of naval warfare, again, the coin of the realm was the battleship, and it had been the corner of the realm and was the central platform for centuries. But as we all know, you know, Pearl Harvard, the entire US battleship fleet was sunk, and we had this new platform, which is the aircraft carrier, and that platform was able to adapt and become the central force around which naval battles were fought, and I think whatever the next war is, we're going to see a similar process of adaptation need to occur. It's going to have to occur very fast, and the side that gets their right will probably be the side that wins oty. Just to finish that, what do you suspect it is. I think it's going to probably be a network of platforms. I think it's going to be unmanned, unmanned ships, unmanned aerial vehicles, our ability to fight both a high tech war and also a hybrid low tech war where many of those high tech systems are taken offline and our forces ability to kind of toggle between the two. So it's gonna be very, very complex, but more of the network centric version of warfare as opposed to a platform center version of warfare built around you know, very big ships and aircraft and things of that. Interesting. Interesting Elliott, thank you, I appreciate your time this morning. Always do Happy New Year, Sir Akman, US Marine Corps veteran whether surround the table. Sarah Hunt, chief market strategist at Alpine Saxon Words, Sarah, good morning and happy New Year. Let's revisit that quote from Berkley's This Morning. We believe the continued period of week results coupled with multiple expands is not sustainable. You on the same page. I think you almost have to be. I mean, you know, the theme for twenty twenty three was all about the FED and what was going to happen, and as soon as the cycle peak, you could be okay. So if we pulled forward a lot of multiple expansion on the back of the idea that rates are going to come down, they're probably not going to come down to that great Financial crisis level. If they come down a couple hundred basis points. Is the multiple expansion already too much? And I think that that's going to be the big tension in a lot of them. And you know, for Apple, which we were talking about, you've got to look at all that consistency and all that cash onlo and that's what people are paying for that and the exclusivity of its Apple, and people will keep replacing those products. It's that assessment true. If the whole market of just a select group of stocks that dominate the market, I think it's more select group. I mean, you have to I think valuations and we keep saying and it's one of like, this is Europe's year, this is valuation's year. It's going to matter this year, right, I don't know when it's going to matter, but at some point it will. I think having money have a cost makes valuations matter in a way that we had fifteen years where you know, people talked about it, but it didn't really matter. And maybe that starts to happen now and maybe people really start looking at those metrics. But I think you've got a lot of money on the table, and you've got a lot of places that you know, I got a lot of money that needs to be invested. Frame out total return. You could go to the Bloomberg folks. The terminal tr is the function, and you can model in and your return quickly one year back, two years back, three years, et cetera. And the answer is we're now addicted to oh, I made fifteen percent. I failed Blooney, it's a single digit return. At the most, you're going to make eleven percent. But the answer is do we need to get use again to equity return of eight or nine percent? I think that you do. And I think that you also have to look at history. I mean, yes, you had a huge move last year, and a handful of names, and yes, some of the other stocks started to catch up at the end of the year. I'm just looking at a chart of L three Harris before I come on here, and I was like, Wow, that back end of the performance was really really quick. I don't know where you end up with multiples here, but I don't think that you can have the kind of growth that we've had given the kind of economic backdrop that we're looking at. You. If the Fed's really going to cut six times like the market is pricing in, then we probably have a much weaker economic scenario than earnings are pricing in. So I don't know. There's a tension here. In twenty twenty four has got a lot of questions that need to be answer. You're the person I've been wanting to ask this question too. One of the big surprises last year was that the great underperformance came from oil. Tom and John were talking about why that was so surprising considering some of the conflicts that really were escalating in the Middle East. At this point, we are seeing oil perkop just a touch with relative in relation to what's going on in the Red Sea. Could this increase if it continues, change the disinflation narrative absolutely, I mean just the changing the trade routes alone could change some of that because you're going to things get more expensive. But you've had a huge supply response to oil demand and you've got you were talking about earlier, the US is a huge producer now right commodities are priced on the margin. If I've got excess supply, I can't get prices to really move that high, which is why the Saudias had to keep taking oil off the market. But if you start to see a crimping of some of those roots and you can't move things the way you thought you could before, then you're going to see then you could see some problems. And that's been a huge help for the inflation picture. And if that changes and you start to see data that is a little bit more inflationary, that narrative on how much the Fed's going to cut has to change, and then that's going to be a question. Then where to equity multiples go given that scenario. I know that you're bullish on energy stocks through the beginning of last year, then you've got a little more tapid as you saw as some of the moves at this point, how much are you leaning in to some of those names because of just how offsides people would be if the disinflation narrative fades an oil prices surge. Well, we think of energy as an area where you need to have some position, but you trade around that position, and you get heavier when you think that you've got an opportunity, and you get lighter when you think that the market is not going your way. When the supply came up a lot, that's where you sort of lighten up on your energy positions. I don't think you want to be out of it entirely. You've got a lot of very good dividen yields in those and you've got a lot of stocks that act better in a bad market than some of the other things do. So I think that's something you want to trade around. And we still think that energy has a longer tail. You've got a Barbell portfolio, You've got short term stuff for your day trading. We know you're famous for that, Sarah, and then you got the buy and hold. I want you to talk to the audience that their heads are spinning off of COVID. They're stating, Okay, COVID's over. Can I maintain some form of three year or four year or five year ownership of whatever equity uncomfortable? Can you still do that act? I think you absolutely can, and I think that this is the time to really be thinking about that thematic trade of what's going to happen in the next few years. Right, so we look at something like Tetratech that does all sorts of engineering construction but basically on a lot of water and some of the infrastructure stuff. I think that you can definitely look at companies that have a longer term theme that are playing into some of the things that are going on, but the volatility within that you have to be able to say, okay, this is where I will allow some volatility to occur, because some of those stocks that we like a lot still have had some challenges in a year where someone makes an acquisition or somebody does something. But I think you can look at the matic investing now because you really got a longer term view and you've got a market. It's fairly expensive, so you better really like where you're positioned. Let's finish on the banks, the regional banks specifically, not a big players, the regionals Kori closely followed Regional Bank ETF you know them well, up almost fourteen percent in November of sixteen percent in December. Is that just a leftige trade on what's happening in the bond market in treasuries as yields fall aggressively or is there something to get your hands around for twenty four I think that's a lot to do with what's going on with interest rates, and I think it's also a lot to do with people looking for okay, where has completely still been on the floor and maybe we can pick something up here, because the valuations on that group were very, very not challenging relative to the rest of the market. I think you still have issues with the yield curve. I think it's still difficult to make some money in some of those and I think we still have some commercial real estate issues that we haven't flown through yet. So it's a little bit challenging to say that that's a definite thing about the environment as more as like it was being picked up off the floor. Speaking of the yeld curve, Lisa two year versus ten year still negative thirty six basis points. They're not going to really make up some of the difference through lending long and borrowing short. To also Sarah's point one hundred and seventeen billion dollars of commercial mortgage debt coming to just this year alone, that's really going to raise some questions on that front. With some of these reached out. I had the same article. I believe it is in the fteam. My brain's frozen on that right now. But the answer John is I saw a bar chart. I'm going to say ten cities in America, there's basically New York in some of all the others, and maybe every other city combined is the same as New York. I mean, it's amazing. Now this is a local issue for us. E Sarah, It's going to see you. Happy New year, Sarah. About pont Snackson Woods. Let's quickly get the ry isman of acquiry here on global FX and all the other things that get us back to a great bull market in the United States. Wonderful to have your after Wiseman to get us started for the year. Let me go to the larger view, which is everything hinges on China. Do you agree not for twenty twenty four? No, Although I do think that China is a very important part of the macro story. Globally. We have this central banks in the US to worry about, we have the central banks in Europe to worry about, and we have supply shocks, especially in the natural resource markets and the oil markets to worry about too. So China is important, but it's not all or nothing as it comes to China. I will say this though, I think the market is somewhat wrong in focusing too much on the property sector in China an agurate demand in China. I think what the market has lost sight of to some extent is President's willingness to go after the tech sector in China and more generally, you know, against the whole concept of private property in China. I think this is what is souring sentiment for China, and I think to the extent that that is find some relief in twenty twenty four, it could be a bigger deal for China on the upside than you know, some resolutions to the problems on the balance sheet of the property sector. There's been a multi decade failure of international stocks and some correlated over to an ever stronger dollar. Is a dollar finally broken where there's an unspoken opportunity in international equities. Well, if you're asking, is the dollar is a lot dollars a reserve currency as the standard for international trade, international finance is over No, I know, I don't think so. If what you're asking for, is there going to be a structural break with regard to the status of the dollar, international capital markets, and international trade, I think the answer is no. Remember that we had a period before we had globalization, before nineteen ninety five for that matter, when China and Russia and the other emerging markets were not that fully integrated into the global economy or the Washington Consensus for that matter, and yet we still talked about the dollar is the reserve currency of the world. Why, because you know, a good part of the of the world still depends on the dollar for its trade and for its commerce and for its it's financing. So no, I don't think that's going to happen anytime soon. At least, one of the trades that we do at the beginning of every year is to come up with potential tail risks, which inevitably will probably be wrong. But there is a question here. Tail risk the dollar being somehow profoundly debased, seems to be off the table. From what you just said, what about a sort of the tail risk of some sort of significant supply shock. You sort of alluded to that initially in the commodity space, so that I think is a bigger tail risk, and I think it behooves every investor out there to at least have some oil in one's portfolio, be long oil, because when you think about US recessions in the postwar period, you'll find it an amazingly large number of them had been preceded by a rapid rise in oil prices. You'll see that, and it behooves investors to have some oil in the portfolio because we just don't know to the extent that we do have a supply shock. Oil prices will go up, and you'll offset the losses you would otherwise experience from seeing stocks go seeing bonds go down. In that context, this raises a question to me of how off size the market would be should there be some sort of oil supply shock. Given the fact that people have kind of gotten accustomed to the idea that the US is a producing record amounts, and then even in the phase of conflict, oil prices went down, how wrongly positioned are people for this kind of this kind of event. I don't know how wrongly positioned they are. There is a case to be made, however, for the logic of oil prices having come down in the last few months, and the logic is very straightforward. The elasticity of supply in oil is actually quite high, potentially higher than the market surmised before six months ago. What we have seen with the increase in oil prices that preceded this decline is a huge increase in oil production in the US, and that is the basis for why oil prices are down. But if we were to get a shock, a shock out of the Middle East, for example, a shock out of Russia, it's not conceivable that production can go up quickly enough to offset that in a very short period of and that's the risk that we face right now from these shocks. Over the long term, there'll be an adjustment in US supply that's positive and beneficial, but not in the short term. Is the US donar a commodity currency now? No, I don't think so. Certainly the market doesn't see it that way, right. It's interesting there are some emerging markets that we don't necessarily associate that much from the perspective of their current account balance and their trade with oil, because they're not huge net exporters Brazil, for example, but they are large producers. And yet the market tends to associate the Brazilian real with oil more than it does associate the US dollar with oil. Do you expect that to change anytime soon? No? I don't think so. And that's because no one's going to really associate the US with a very large net export balance in oil. It really has to get to a point where US trade is dominated by oil, and that is not the case. Yet it's still dominated by services. Knowledge very true, TK The number is just absolutely staggering when it comes to production, thirteen million barrows a day in this country. Yeah, well, it's interesting here is we don't have an oil policy. I mean, we take great pride that Washington has never come up with the plan. We've got this plan, that plan, whatever plan. I guess it's a technological success. Not sure. We needn't want no plan. Well to that point, do we need one? It's Washington is the White House of renovant with regards to this conversation, only to respect that oil is such a geopolitical issue, and of course geopolitics and politics generally have to manage you through diplomacy or through some management of market forces that are relevant to geopolitics. That's ok. There's a case be made for the energy market to be managed from that perspective. But if it wasn't for the importance of oil from a geopolitical perspective, I don't think so. Terry. It's good to see you. Happy new year. Thank you, sir, Terry Wiseman of Macquarie. We're beginning strong this year, and part of that is with Doug Cass, who is many of you know out on social media. Seabree's Partners is a great pinata and Doug, before we get to your always interesting, thought provoking ten ideas, if I'm cautious on the market, or if I'm short on the market and the market runs away from me the other direction, what do you do? What do you do? In December? Given this bull market leg up? How did you respond? We were short in two time frames. One was timely mated after July after the majorly I run, but we didn't lose money in the majorly run, and we were net short in November and December. We didn't lose money either. And now how do you do that? I think a lot of people want to know, Doug, how do you not lose money? It's tough, you know, to begin with, Why did I get it wrong in the last two months? I think I underestimated the animal spirits and the price momentum that had been accumulated. I underestimated the power of the herd as the pressure on the upside intensified, and so did Fomo. I understand. I estimated the contribution from market structure, which had basically intensified the upside to equities, and same applies to interest rates. The momentum and the yields to the downside accelerated. And you know, we live in a market which is has a structure. It's far different than I started when I was a housing analyst kit or Peabody. Buyers live higher and sellers of lower, so you have to adapt. Warm Buffett said the first two lessons on investing don't lose money, and the second lesson is don't forget the first lesson. So we trade opportunistically around short positions and risk averse. Because my short book is pretty diversified, and when I'm wrong, I take a lot of small office that's the answer. But as we entered the new year, I am not short. So how do you think about here this twenty twenty four? Again, I think the you know, late October through the year end twenty three caught a lot of people by surprise, the vigor of that rally here. So what do we do here on January second? Well, I always find it amusing that there is now a universal view almost after the quantum rise, especially the NASDAC, the markets are headed higher. However, I think it's important Paul, to observe how wrong the confident consensus has been in each of the last two years. If you remember, in the end of twenty twenty one, the herd was optimistic. In twenty twenty two was a disaster. We had such a bad experience in twenty twenty two that the consensus ended that year wildly confident, and that especially but this time barish, especially on tech stocks, and that couldn't be for their off sides. Today, the consensus found the momentum is very bullish and an area bear can be found. In fact, many of the bears that I watch when I'm on the desk stars the NBC have now become bulls. So I see a vast of a ray of unexpected political, geopolitical, economic, and market surprises that could be untapped for next year. And my biggest concern is the equity risk premium. And despite the enormity of the drop in yields, the equity risk premium is still paper thin, and historically this is a reasonable predictor of weak markets. Paul Apple, Yeah, exactly, Doug surprises for twenty twenty four. What should Maybe we're not thinking about it. I mean we should, sure. I think one of the things we're not thinking about is in part due to fear that the Democrats will continue to hold on to the presidency. Foreign powers step up military confrontations and my surprise, my second surprise, is that the West continues to lose patients with how the war is going with Ukraine, as a US backs off and support and negotiations of a territorial split began and Ukraine is forced to give up east side of the country. North Korea, with support from Russia, undertakes skirmishes in the DMZ and makes threats to invade South Korea. Iran completes its nuclear build up, which provides a direct attack from Israel. Though China doesn't invade Taiwan, it continues with aggressive war game tactics in the Kia Sea. So my feeling is that the global economy, Tom and pol are more susceptible to supply shocks than has generally believed. And with Russia and Saudi conspiring on production cuts, I wouldn't be surprised as a surprise that the price of oil exceeds one hundred and ten dollars a barrel, and the price of a gallon gasoline US approaches six dollars, and shares of Exxon oxy chevron each rise by a third in the year. Doug, I want to get to send it's so important within all of this, you really go after the Blackstones, the Apollos of the world. You say, private equity quote to get torn to shreds. Discuss that that's important for global wall Street. Sure, Surprise number seven is Wall Street's most vicious vultures. Private equity are about to get torn to shreds. And remember we still Tom have elevated interest rates, and we have a slowing global economy. We have the loan rate reset cliff beginning at the last half of this year, and I think it's going to contribute to a leader in private credit failing. Blackstone shares could drop by a third after the BREI, which is the private real estate fund run by the company, and the public fund bx MT come under new redemption pressures. And finally, I wouldn't be surprising. I was involved as a director of a business development company in New York Stock Exchange and I personally saw vividly the phony marks in our books. So my surprise is that shares a private equity stocks like KKR, Apollo and Blackstone plunge as the SEC opens and investigation into the failure of the private equity industry to realistically marked to market their portfolios in the timely manner. Wow, interesting because that's been an issue for a long time, particularly now that these companies are public. How about private credit, Doug, This is a new business for you, Tom and me. Over the last decade or something. It's just exploded in terms of size. We were all comfortable with, or we think we understand private equity, but private credit has become a huge business and it just doesn't feel like it gets the regulatory scrutiny that they get the regulatory scrutiny at all. Paul it's hurting the banking industry. It's one of the reasons why I'm so negative on banks, besides the credit cycle, the emerging credit cycle. So this is something to watch, you know, whenever there is such quantum increase in balance sheets as are currently in private equity, we have to be on the alert. Well, speaking of alert, Doug, I got time for one question. I read my Padres in Red Sox the athletic coverage this week. I'm sorry Juan Soto for the dreaded New York Yankees. He's basically Weighe bogs with power that changes the Yankees lineup, doesn't. It's a massive move for the Yankees. Our team has lacked left hand sluggers in recent years, and we never had the necessary lineup support for Aaron Judge. Remember, he bats left handed right and he's fully capable of taking advantage of the short porch in right fielded Yankee Stadium. I think we're one Jordan Montgomery type away through the World Series. But the problem is Montgomery, Montras, Manea Lugo, they're all going, they're all signing. But this is a powerful lineup from may U Sodo, Judge, Zo, Stanton Torres, twenty seconds. Dougcast, could you do something about the food at Yankee Stadium? People that live in glasshouses in Fenway Park? Doug, Thank you so much. Doug Cass the series partners. Subscribe to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live every weekday starting at seven am Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com, the iHeartRadio app tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can watch us live on Bloomberg Television and always. I'm the Bloomberg Terminal. Thanks for listening. I'm Tom Keane and this is Bloomberg.See 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CONTENTThe guest today is the Cognitive Marine a serving USMC officer currently stationed in Okinawa who previously appeared on podcast #039. On this episode we discuss how past and present wars influence thought on the way battles may be fought in the future. Subjects include: Okinawa, Singapore and Menorca.Ukraine & Russia.Israel & Gaza.The influence and development of his Cognitive Marine Instagram account.His book choice on Desert island Dits is 2034: A Novel of the Next World War by Elliot Ackerman & Admiral James Stavridis. WHERE TO GET OUR DESERT ISLAND DITS BOOK CHOICESMost of our book recommendations can be bought via the Unconventional Soldier Bookshop. 10% of each purchase supports the pod and helps independent book stores on line sales. "BUY ME A COFFEE"If you want to support the podcast you can buy me a coffee here.SOCIAL MEDIACheck out our blog site on Wordpress Unconventional SoldierFollow us on social media and don't forget to like, share and leave a review.Instagram @the_unconventional_soldier_pod.Facebook @lateo82. Twitter @TheUCS473.Download these and other platforms via Link Tree.Email us: unconventionalsoldier@gmail.com. This episode brought to you in association with ISARR a veteran owned company. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

For Veterans Day we're revisiting two interviews about war. Elliot Ackerman served five tours in Iraq and Afghanistan, during which time, he says, he witnessed the absolute worst — as well as the absolute best — that human beings are capable of. Ackerman is also a journalist, novelist, memoirist and National Book Award nominee. His Silver Star is for leading a platoon in the Battle of Fallujah in Iraq.Historian Matthew Delmont talks about the more than one million Black people who served in the military in WWII, the contributions they made and discrimination they faced, and those who struggled for equality in civilian life. Delmont's book is Half American.Film critic Justin Chang reviews David Fincher's new thriller, The Killer.

Martini (2 1/2 ounces gin, 1 ounce dry vermouth, 4 olives)Award winning author and recipient of the Bronze Star, Silver Star and Purple Heart, Elliot reveals a secret handshake to counter program the famous Trump handshake-yank, shares his thoughts on the Great Man Theory of history and what he'd do about a young Hitler, how he and Adm. James Stavridis have worked together on novel writing, and gives his opinion of the best war movie ever made (you won't see this one coming).

Yesterday's anniversary of the 2001 terrorist attacks on the United States has us turning to the legacy of America's post-9/11 wars. As veterans reflect on their time in Iraq and Afghanistan, and as the country contemplates the impact of these wars on the morale of the US military and America's standing in the world, literature offers a powerful way to make meaning from war's experience. From Ernest Hemingway to Kurt Vonnegut and J.D. Salinger, the author-soldier has long been a fixture in American literature. In this episode of None Of The Above, the Eurasia Group Foundation's Mark Hannah is joined by two of his favorite contemporary novelists, veterans Elliot Ackerman and Phil Klay. Books, they argue, are more than a medium to unpack trauma and untangle the web of emotions war provokes: war stories have implications for the battles we have yet to fight. Elliot Ackerman is a veteran of the US Marine Corps who served in Iraq and Afghanistan. Elliot is the author of several novels, including Halcyon (2023) and 2034 (2021), which he co-wrote with Admiral James Stavridis.  Phil Klay is a veteran of the US Marine Corps who served in Iraq. Phil is the author of the novels Redeployment (2014) and Missionaries (2020). His most recent book is Uncertain Ground: Citizenship in the Age of Endless, Invisible War (2022). To listen to more episodes or learn more about None Of The Above, go to www.noneoftheabovepodcast.org. To learn more about the Eurasia Group Foundation, please visit www.egfound.org and subscribe to our newsletter.

Iraq and Afghanistan war veteran Elliot Ackerman is a fan of Oppenheimer and Dunkirk director Christopher Nolan, and takes inspiration from the director's ability to powerfully communicate and crystallize key themes for his audience. Finding this core meaning or purpose in his own subjects has helped put Mr. Ackerman's books on The New York Times bestseller's list; finding his own purpose in life has helped him resolve the trauma of battle. Mr. Ackerman led a platoon of marines in Fallujah in 2004 during what's widely considered the highest point of conflict during the Iraq war. “We don't need to figure this out right now,” he recalls telling fellow marines amid battle. “We're gonna have the rest of our lives to sit around and talk about what just happened. We just need to get through the next five days.” Mr. Ackerman relays how talking together and story-telling gave shape and meaning to the chaotic events, becoming “a vehicle by which [they] all came home.” On VitalSigns, purple heart and silver star recipient Elliot Ackerman joins host Brendon Fallon to connect the meaning we make through our art to the meaning we locate in our lives. ⭕️ Watch in-depth videos based on Truth & Tradition at Epoch TV

Lyle Goldstein is back to talk with Scott about a recent U.S. wargame simulating a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. While Goldstein has some problems with the game's design, he thinks it was far superior to most in its realism. And that, above all, the report authors were honest about the sheer scale of losses both sides face if diplomatic solutions dry up or go ignored. Discussed on the show: The First Battle of the Next War: Wargaming a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan Accompanying video 2034: A Novel of the Next World War by Elliot Ackerman and Admiral James Stavridis  Lyle J. Goldstein is the Director of Asia Engagement at Defense Priorities. He is the author of Meeting China Halfway: How to Defuse the Emerging US-China Rivalry. Follow his work at The National Interest and on Twitter @lylegoldstein This episode of the Scott Horton Show is sponsored by: Tom Woods' Liberty Classroom; ExpandDesigns.com/Scott. Get Scott's interviews before anyone else! Subscribe to the Substack. Shop Libertarian Institute merch or donate to the show through Patreon, PayPal or Bitcoin: 1DZBZNJrxUhQhEzgDh7k8JXHXRjY Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Download Episode. Lyle Goldstein is back to talk with Scott about a recent U.S. wargame simulating a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. While Goldstein has some problems with the game's design, he thinks it was far superior to most in its realism. And that, above all, the report authors were honest about the sheer scale of losses both sides face if diplomatic solutions dry up or go ignored. Discussed on the show: The First Battle of the Next War: Wargaming a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan Accompanying video 2034: A Novel of the Next World War by Elliot Ackerman and Admiral James Stavridis  Lyle J. Goldstein is the Director of Asia Engagement at Defense Priorities. He is the author of Meeting China Halfway: How to Defuse the Emerging US-China Rivalry. Follow his work at The National Interest and on Twitter @lylegoldstein This episode of the Scott Horton Show is sponsored by: Tom Woods' Liberty Classroom; ExpandDesigns.com/Scott. Get Scott's interviews before anyone else! Subscribe to the Substack. Shop Libertarian Institute merch or donate to the show through Patreon, PayPal or Bitcoin: 1DZBZNJrxUhQhEzgDh7k8JXHXRjY

On The Other Side of Midnight, Frank starts with his biweekly talk with Steve Kates aka Dr. Sky on space news. Frank moves on to a discussion of police, talking on George Floyd, police accountability and children in danger in Baltimore. Further on, Frank discusses the Reese's bar in the WABC kitchen, Futurama's return and Twitter's new rebrand. Elliot Ackerman, a former marine and writer, comes on the show to discuss all sorts of topics. Moving into the final hour, Frank talks SAG-AFTRA, UFOs and has an interview with Neil King Jr., a journalist who wrote about his walk from Washington D.C. to New York. Listen today! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Frank sits down with Elliot Ackerman, former Marine and intelligence officer who served five tours of duty in Iraq and Afghanistan. He's also a contributing writer for The Atlantic and a best-selling author, whose latest book is “Halcyon”. They discuss news of the day, his book, Oppenheimer, Afghanistan and more. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Subscribe to The Realignment to access our exclusive Q&A episodes and support the show: https://realignment.supercast.com/.REALIGNMENT NEWSLETTER: https://therealignment.substack.com/PURCHASE BOOKS AT OUR BOOKSHOP: https://bookshop.org/shop/therealignmentEmail Us: realignmentpod@gmail.comFoundation for American Innovation: https://www.thefai.org/posts/lincoln-becomes-faiElliot Ackerman, author of Halcyon, The Fifth Act: America's End in Afghanistan, and 2034: A Novel of the Next World War, returns to The Realignment. Elliot and Marshall discuss his alternate history of America in the 2000s, how revisiting the past challenges our assumptions about our national character, conflict versus character, and his broader writing foreign policy reporting as the country faces new challenges and conflicts.

Author and war veteran Elliot Ackerman holds a very unpopular opinion about the draft: he supports it, but only because he thinks it could be a good thing for Americans. He joins this bonus episode of The New Abnormal to explain why he holds this take and how he sees it ultimately helping create more peace and less war. Plus, he shares his experience trying to evacuate people, including the Afghan girls' robotics team, out of Afghanistan and what his new book The Fifth Act: America's End in Afghanistan is all about. Our GDPR privacy policy was updated on August 8, 2022. Visit acast.com/privacy for more information.

1. Rob Riggle (2018) 2. Admiral James Stavridis and Elliot Ackerman (2021) 3. Jack Carr (2021) Hosted by Chris Laxamana and Giovanni Giorgio Request clips: Classics@adamcarolla.com TWITTER: https://twitter.com/chrislaxamana INSTAGRAM: http://instagram.com/chrislaxamana1 https://instagram.com/giovannigiorgio Website: https://www.podcastone.com/carolla-classics