The Investing Podcast

Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss CoreWeave soaring 17% after raising its 2026 CapEx guidance to $35-39 billion and pushing through roughly 25% price increases across its GPU pricing tiers, extending the useful life of its chips and signing an A100 contract through 2029 despite the SKU launching in 2020, Trump reportedly weighing changes to capital gains taxes including exemptions for homes worth $2 million or less and indexing gains to inflation, a discussion of whether eliminating the corporate income tax and capital gains tax in favor of ordinary income treatment would be simpler and more pro-growth, and a New York State Supreme Court judge temporarily blocking Mayor Mamdani's pied-a-terre tax rollout after finding the city improperly shifted the burden of proving primary-residence exemptions onto property owners, with arguments set for August 31.Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefingPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

Ben and Tom discuss the $500 billion private-capital AI infrastructure fund unveiled on CNBC by Jensen Huang, David Solomon, Larry Fink, Jonathan Gray, and the heads of Apollo, KKR, and Brookfield, Fink's comparison of financing GPU purchases to the early days of 1970s mortgage-backed securities and the underlying assumption that Nvidia chips won't depreciate, a breakdown of how asset-backed lending structures like aircraft bonds could apply to GPU financing, Tom's "Through the Looking Glass" thesis arguing markets remain captive to Bernanke-era assumptions that no longer hold in a supply-side, fiscal-dominance framework, tomorrow's CPI report and whether a firm print could test Warsh's rate stance, and NFIB Small Business Optimism hitting its highest level since last August with hiring plans at a four-year high even as actual employment remains soft.Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefingPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss Berkshire Hathaway finally deploying its cash pile with the $6.8 billion purchase of Taylor Morrison Homes, a $10 billion new stake in Google now among its top five holdings, and $4.5 billion in buybacks, prompting the question of whether Buffett's years of caution are giving way to optimism, operating earnings up 24% and utilities profit up 27% even as BNSF and Geico continue to lag, TSMC's strong July sales supporting Q3 guidance for 46-48% revenue growth, a rough stretch for agriculture with Taylor Farms recalling jalapeño products in a salmonella outbreak following an earlier Cyclospora scare, and Treasury Wine Estates taking a $500 million charge and retreating from its US "masstige" strategy as global wine consumption hits its lowest level since the 1960sJoin our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefingPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss Atlassian soaring 30% after declaring "AI is the best thing that's ever happened" to the company with credit consumption doubling quarter-over-quarter, the ECB reportedly blindsided after Treasury sold euros rather than dollars in last week's yen intervention with senior officials calling it an unprecedented breach of monetary cooperation conventions, Microchip Technology rising 9% on accelerating data center demand and a long multi-year upcycle across aerospace, defense, industrial, and automotive, Natera jumping 15% on accelerated MRD testing, Elon Musk's new $16.8 billion Terafab chip facility in Texas backed by SpaceX and Tesla, SK Hynix's $38 billion capacity expansion to ease the memory shortage, reports that Nvidia is testing lower-memory versions of its next-gen Rubin Ultra GPU, upcoming changes to the PCE calculation expected to lower reported inflation by up to 30bps, today's jobs report, and new US intelligence suggesting Putin could test NATO's resolve with a limited incursion.Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefingPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

Ben and Tom discuss WSJ's Timiraos reporting that Trump has been calling Warsh repeatedly since he became Fed Chair — treating him as a trusted economic adviser on the Iran war and AI's economic impact — reigniting the Fed independence debate just as Bessent posted a viral tweet that lit up financial media, memory names WDC dropping 16% and SNDK falling 12% on decelerating quarterly growth despite still-strong annual revenue, ISM Services showing continued resilience with tariff and Middle East concerns fading and World Cup boosts persisting, Fastenal running slightly better than seasonal, Bank of America showing acceleration in lower-income segments, Costco's lowest ex-gas ticket since November potentially signaling disinflation, and Meta launching its Muse Code coding agent as a cheaper alternative to OpenAI and Anthropic.Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefingPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss SpaceX falling 11% despite laying out an ambitious AI and Starlink roadmap including Grok 5 trained on internal SpaceX data by year-end, 1.4GW of current compute growing toward 10GW by end of 2027, deploying NVL72-designed data centers on the ground rather than in space, boots on the moon by 2028, and the goal of scaling launch cadence to one per day in 2027, SpaceX's decision to go exclusively with Nvidia sending AMD down 9% despite good results and CPU acceleration while Arista Networks jumped 14% on accelerating networking demand tied to Nvidia, CVS raising guidance and re-adding Zepbound to its formulary while publicly backing Eli Lilly with expanded GLP-1 support, Lilly beating on stronger-than-expected GLP-1 pricing, Disney rising 4% on parks strength and a TikTok short-form video partnership, Uber slipping despite record first-time user additions, and the JOLTS report showing softer job openings but likely not a signal Warsh will weigh.Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefingPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss the industrial demand train continuing to roll with ISM Manufacturing accelerating to 55.6 and employment turning positive for the first time in 33 months, Caterpillar raising guidance and surging 10% on data center engine and turbine demand, Palantir soaring 15% with US commercial revenue up 149% and Karp declaring the "revolution for AI sovereignty" is underway, ON Semi up 8% on silicon carbide AI data center revenue growing 60%, Entegris beating estimates, TransDigm +3% on double-digit aerospace and defense growth, Cummins raising outlook on data center power gen, healthcare beats from MRK and PFE potentially masking channel stuffing, McDonald's +2% on better-than-feared comps with a new US president appointed, ADM +5% on the EPA biofuel mandate, and Snap +6% on the World Cup boost.Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefingPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

Ben and Tom discuss the rare coordinated currency intervention with the US joining Japan and possibly Korea to prop up the yen from 164 to 155, Japan spending at least $53 billion with the US chipping in over $1 billion — reportedly by selling euros rather than dollars in a strategic move to pressure Eurozone policy while supporting Japan, Bessent's incentive to keep Japan from dumping US Treasuries, Japan's plan to tap a COVID-era $60B/day USD swap facility, Iran signaling that Hormuz talks with Oman are entering the final stages after MBS urged Trump to prioritize dialogue, and the market reaction with oil down 5% to the high-$70s/low-$80s, the 10-year at 4.68%, and stocks up 0.5%.Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefingPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

Ben and Andrew discuss a plan for Hamas to disarm in Gaza, Apple and Amazon's earnings reports, and the blowup of the AI focused hedge fund Situational Awarness. Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefingPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss Warsh holding rates at 3.50-3.75% in a divided 6-3 vote with market-implied inflation expectations dropping meaningfully since the last meeting, the BOE also holding at 3.75% in a matching 6-3 split, the emerging Mag-7 split with Microsoft rising 8% on improved AI ROI, better throughput, and Copilot seat growth versus Meta down 9% on longer time-to-value and fuzzy CapEx guidance beyond 2027, the broader takeaway that Mag-7 is now focused on driving AI revenue and CapEx efficiency which is bearish for Nvidia near-term but long-term positive for the industry, a Russian missile leaving a 30-foot crater on the Poland-Ukraine border, Admiral Cooper preparing a 10-14 day punishing air campaign against Iran, and South Korea weighing a short-selling ban.Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefingPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss today's Fed meeting with a 35% chance of a rate hike and expectations of a hawkish hold from Warsh amid potential mutiny from Waller, Bostic, and Lisa Cook, the emerging "semi-stagflation" theme with memory prices destroying demand and slamming chip stocks including Vertiv down 14%, Skyworks and Qorvo down double digits, and KLA down 8%, Procter & Gamble's remarkable flatline quarter with 0% volume, 0% pricing, and 0% organic growth, the strong and resilient consumer theme from Visa and Garmin, disruption stories like CoStar losing search traffic to AI, Trump vowing to hit Iran hard after intercepted attacks sending oil up 5%, and Zuckerberg's WSJ op-ed calling for democratized AI access.Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefingPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

Ben and Tom discuss the growing Fed infighting reported by WSJ's Nick Timiraos with Governor Chris Waller openly challenging new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at a dinner over his five new outside expert task forces on communications, inflation framework, asset holdings, data, and AI's impact on productivity, Warsh's notable silence on economic shocks despite the changed environment, the AIA Architecture Billings Index staying below 50 for 41 straight months in one of the longest downturns on record, oil falling as Iran hosts a diplomatic call with Saudi Arabia and Oman with WTI down to $80, chips getting smashed again on Korea weakness and China competition, and Trump's packed schedule meeting Zelensky and Netanyahu before Lindsey Graham's funeral.Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefingPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss Nvidia agreeing to guarantee $250 billion in financing for OpenAI's $500 billion 10GW data center in southern Ohio developed by SoftBank Energy with Japan investing $33 billion in the natural gas power plant and the US government splitting power revenues, CXMT's 450% China market debut and Apple's interest in sourcing memory chips from them to avoid hostage-taking by SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron, "TACO Monday" as Trump paused Iran strikes over the weekend to give diplomacy space amid concerns over Patriot interceptor stockpiles, and the market impact with oil down 7% to the mid-$80s, stocks up across the board, gold rising on Fed dovish odds, and a 33% chance of a rate hike this Wednesday.Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefingPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

Ben discusses SLB rising 5% after beating on broad-based international drilling activity with its Data Center Solutions business on track to exceed $1 billion annualized run rate this year and $2 billion by end of 2027, Intel's after-hours pop fading as CapEx ballooned to over $20 billion for 2026 with 2027 significantly higher despite strong Client and Data Center results, Tenet Healthcare soaring 16% on a massive EPS guidance raise from Medicaid supplemental payments in TX and CA, HCA falling 3% on payer mix headwinds from ACA coverage losses, and NextEra reiterating all guidance through 2035 as power demand accelerates.Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefingPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss the Houthis targeting Saudi tankers Encelia and Layla in the Red Sea with Trump vowing to destroy a bridge or power plant for every Strait attack, a mixed AI earnings print with ServiceNow up 6% cementing itself as the AI control tower while Google fell 4% on heavy cloud spend without ad acceleration and TPU revenue pushed to 2027, STMicroelectronics dropping 14% on a big margin miss, strong railroad growth from CSX raising numbers with FCF up over 80%, Norfolk Southern posting solid revenue growth, the 30-year yield nearing 5.2%, the ECB holding rates at 2.25% while warning on energy inflation, Uber cutting 10% of customer service jobs, and Bessent moving to oust Fed Vice Chair Barr over SVB.Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefingPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss the widening Iran war with the US expanding airstrikes to a military site near Tabriz, Iran activating air defenses in Tehran and firing on US bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, and Jordan, the complete breakdown of diplomacy and early talk of ground forces, the landmark 30-year deal approving uranium enrichment in Saudi Arabia for civilian nuclear power with US companies playing a central role, and oil prices ripping 4% with Brent into the mid $90s and WTI into the high $80s.Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefingPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss what today's earnings say about a broadening economy with 3M raising full-year EPS guidance to $8.80-$8.95 on sharp acceleration in Safety/Industrial and Transportation/Electronics, Steel Dynamics posting +12% total steel volume and +19% steel fabrication shipments backed by reshoring and infrastructure demand, weakness continuing in consumer categories like packaging and home improvement, and financials showing resilient consumer spending, improving credit quality, and early signs of renewed price competitiveness in consumer credit and insuranceJoin our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefingPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss the escalating Iran war with an Iranian strike killing two US service members and injuring others in Jordan, oil rising to the high $80s and gas moving back above $4 over the weekend, Strait of Hormuz traffic grinding to a standstill, potential renewed diplomatic outreach from Iran's Foreign Ministry, the 10-year holding at 4.56%, Domino's earnings shedding light on a stabilizing consumer with US-owned comps improving to +2.1%, and a preview of the packed earnings week including DHI, GEV, GOOG, TSLA, IBM, and Thursday's ECB decision.Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefingPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss a rough day for US tech with Google delaying Gemini 3.5 Pro after it underperformed on coding benchmarks, China's Moonshot releasing Kimi K3 with claims of rivaling OpenAI and Anthropic's top models, Netflix dropping 10% on decelerating US growth and softening engagement, SpaceX scrubbing its Starship launch after four engines failed to fire, today's options expiration, and a look ahead to next week's earnings calendar featuring Google, Tesla, IBM, ServiceNow, and the ECB decision.Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefingPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

Ben and Tom discuss the sharp value-over-momentum rotation with high-flying names getting smashed while broader market breadth improves, SpaceX Starship's critical launch attempt tonight at 5:45 PM local time in South Texas after May's booster spin-out — a launch essential to defending SPCX's $4 billion NASA moon-landing contracts and the broader SpaceX investment thesis — and the levered ETF blowups with South Korea halting new single-stock leveraged ETFs and the Lucid 2x levered ETF liquidating after its NAV went negative.Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefingPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss the Reuters report that Stripe and Advent are making a joint $53 billion bid for PayPal at $60.50 per share sending PYPL up 16%, Lucid's near-50% after-hours crash on an EV publication's report of a potential go-private or Chapter 11 restructuring — which the company forcefully denied as "completely false" — Richemont's Americas rising 27% with broad-based jewelry strength and a stunning +36% Japan comeback, and OpenAI's plans for a physical ChatGPT device with personality, proactive learning, and mechanical elements coming in 2027.Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefingPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss June CPI falling to 3.5% and core CPI to 2.6% both below expectations with the biggest month-over-month drop since May 2020, Trump proposing a 20% fee on Strait of Hormuz cargo and reinstating the blockade sending WTI to $80 and Brent to $87, Chris Waller's hawkish pivot as Warsh builds Fed credibility, IBM's 19% drop after warning on the quarter as clients reprioritized CapEx toward memory and cybersecurity, HCA's 6% drop on ACA payer mix, Samsung exploring a US ADR listing after SK Hynix's blockbuster $26.5B raise, SLB and Liberty Energy pushing into data center power, improving NFIB and Fastenal readings, and a very strong bank earnings kickoff with BAC investment banking fees up 50%.Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefingPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

Ben and Tom discuss President Trump looking "very strongly" at Australia's mandatory 12% employer-contribution retirement model as a potential answer to the US entitlement problem, and Apple filing a "thermonuclear" lawsuit alleging that OpenAI systematically poached talent and stole trade secrets in one of Tim Cook's last major moves as CEO — echoing Steve Jobs' 2010 declaration of war against Google over Android.Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefingPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

Thomas and Tom discuss former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke joining Anthropic's Long-Term Benefit Trust to advise on white-collar job displacement and AI bubble risks, Israel sharing intelligence with the US about a fresh Iranian plot to assassinate President Trump as ceasefire clashes threaten a mid-August permanent peace deal, OpenAI's number-two executive Fidji Simo stepping back to a part-time advisory role due to a neuroimmune condition, and the growing tension over OpenAI and Google supplying advanced AI to overseas subsidiaries of Pentagon-blacklisted Chinese companies while Anthropic bans Chinese access entirely over distillation concerns.Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefingPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

Andrew, Thomas, and Tom discuss the sharp Iran escalation with reports of a cruise missile impact on a nuclear power plant and missiles sent to Jordan following US strikes on 90 Iranian military targets, Russia's diesel export ban through July 31 sending US diesel up over 13% and London wholesale futures up 14% after Ukrainian drone strikes triggered Russia's worst fuel crisis since the Soviet collapse, the FOMC minutes noting broader tariff and AI-driven inflation, SK Hynix's US listing 7x oversubscribed at $24.5 billion, and China permitting local AI companies to buy Nvidia H200 chips for training.Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefingPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss Trump declaring the Iran MOU effectively over after calling Iranian leaders "evil sick people" and "cancer," the US retaliation "20 to 1" on Iranian cargo strikes, oil rising back to the mid-$70s and the 10-year climbing to 4.57% ahead of today's auction, Trump's additional broadsides at Spain, Greenland, and NATO, the semiconductor sell-off as investors focus on AI's capital intensity and rate sensitivity, and today's 2 PM release of Warsh's first FOMC minutes.Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefingPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss the ISM Services print showing broader strength with much of the employment gain tied to World Cup-related hiring, Samsung's 10% drop and the KOSPI hitting a circuit breaker despite 150% growth as memory chip volatility returns, Chris Waller's nuanced defense of forward guidance as "more art than science," Rivian's $1.5 billion stock sale of 75 million shares, and Toyota's $3.6 billion move of Tacoma production from Baja California to San Antonio as it runs at over 90% capacity utilization in North America.Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefingPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

Andrew and Tom discuss memory chips ripping again with ASML and LRCX up 5% on the SK Hynix listing, Broadcom's new multi-year custom ASIC deal with Apple through 2031, Solstice's $14.5 billion cash-and-stock acquisition of Element Solutions with Goldman advising, and Mario Draghi's proposal to restructure the EU into smaller blocs to unlock growth.Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefingPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss the ISM Manufacturing report showing improving new orders and a shift toward hiring while prices moderate, alongside commentary highlighting Middle East pressure on CapEx and stabilizing supply chains, OpenAI's proposal to give the US government a 5% equity stake in the company as part of a broader industry arrangement potentially including Anthropic, Google, and Meta, and Kevin Warsh's remarks that inflation risks have eased since he took over as Fed Chair.Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefingPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss today's ADP jobs print with a 120K estimate, yesterday's JOLTS surprise beat at 7.594 million that seems suspiciously convenient against a low bar, Kevin Warsh's panel appearance alongside Christine Lagarde, Andrew Bailey, and Tiff Macklem in his first global central bank sit-down, and Constellation Brands' earnings beat with EPS at $3.79, 39% operating margins, and 21% Pacifico growth despite a slight net sales decline.Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefingPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss the Supreme Court ruling that Fed Governor Lisa Cook can stay in her job for now with Chief Justice Roberts defending central bank independence while leaving the door open to a for-cause removal, the divergent Wall Street outlooks with Citi and BofA both calling a market top and projecting roughly 10% downside on stretched positioning and deteriorating momentum, and Kevin Warsh's emerging Fed reform agenda across five task forces covering communication, the balance sheet, data, productivity, and inflation.Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefingPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss Comcast's 20% surge on the announced spinoff of NBCUniversal and Sky from its cable business, Korea's plan to orchestrate $880 billion in AI capacity spending by 2029 with Samsung and SK Group leading $570 billion of chip investment, Apple lobbying the Trump administration for clearance to buy memory chips from blacklisted CXMT as the memory squeeze pushes hyperscalers to find new sources, Williams' proposed $5.5 billion deal for Momentum Midstream, and the renewed back-and-forth in the Strait of Hormuz as Iran and the US move to talks in Doha.Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefingPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

Ben and Tom discuss OpenAI delaying its $1 trillion IPO to 2027 as bankers cite tech volatility and the post-SpaceX retail enthusiasm hangover, the resulting sell-off in AI infrastructure names with Softbank down 12% and Micron, NVDA, AVGO, and SNDK all lower, Apple and Microsoft's 15-20% price hikes on iPads, Macs, and Xbox tied to memory chip prices and the likelihood that big tech vertically integrates in response, ON Semi's $6 billion all-stock acquisition of Synaptics to expand into physical AI and robotics with a $100 billion TAM by 2030, and FedEx Freight's commentary that demand may finally be stabilizing.Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefingPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss Micron's blowout quarter with revenue up 346% to $41.5 billion, 84.9% gross margin, and DRAM/NAND supply now constrained through 2027, the implications of doubling CapEx to $40-50 billion in FY27, Trump's $88 billion supplemental spending request for the Iran war, farmer aid, and Ebola, the canceled signing of the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act, escalating Senate Republican tensions over Iran, the DOJ's egg price-fixing settlement with Cal-Maine, the narrowing K-shaped economy spending gap, today's PCE inflation print, and rates finally moving as oil drops below $70.Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefingPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss oil's drop toward the $60s with WTI at $71.93 and Brent at $75.70 while the 10-year stubbornly holds at 4.48%, Trump directing the DOJ to investigate gasoline prices, Bessent's confidence that inflation is heading back to target, the supply/demand for dollars thesis amid massive cash raises from Google, SpaceX, ByteDance, and SK Hynix's planned $29 billion US listing on July 10, and the rightward shift across South America with Keiko Fujimori becoming Peru's first woman president, Trump-backed Abelardo de la Espriella winning Colombia, and Brazil's election still to come.Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefingPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

Ben and Tom discuss the return of AI volatility with Korea's stock market crashing 10% and triggering a 20-minute trading halt on forced ETF liquidations, SK Hynix and Samsung both down more than 20%, Oracle disclosing 21,000 job cuts over the past year as workforce shrank from 162K to 141K, the Ramp AI Index showing accelerating spend per employee but a flattening adoption curve, Google breaking the key $350 support level, and weak European PMIs alongside a steep Sunbelt earnings acceleration in the April quarter.Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefingPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer's resignation paving the way for socialist Andy Burnham as the favorite to succeed him in the country's 5th PM change in 4 years, the post-deal whiplash with Iran briefly re-closing the Strait after Israel-Lebanon skirmishes before reporting "major progress" in overnight talks mediated by Pakistan and Qatar, the muted market reaction with the 10-year up a couple bps and crude flat in the mid-to-high $70s, and Tom's takeaways from the conference and Kevin Warsh's Fed debut.Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefingPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

Andrew and Ben discuss Kevin Warsh's first Fed meeting ending forward guidance and launching task forces on communication and data quality, the massive curve flattener with the 2-year jumping 17bps and the 30-year dropping 6bps, restored inflation credibility through lower TIPS breakevens, the media pushback led by Nick Timiraos, Trump's pivot into midterm "it's the economy" mode after signing the Iran deal, today's Philly Fed print, and the Bank of England holding at 3.75% with a 7-2 vote as gilts sold off.Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefingPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

Andrew and Ben discuss Kevin Warsh's first Fed meeting as Chair with key questions on how hawkish he'll be, how he describes working with Powell, and whether he'll discuss Fed reform, today's retail sales print and yesterday's strong 20-year auction, UK inflation surprising to the downside at 2.8%, and the UAE's longer-term plan to cut dependency on the Strait of Hormuz to zero through Gulf of Oman port expansion, new pipelines to the Red Sea, and expanded rail and road networks.Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefingPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

Andrew and Ben discuss the BOJ hiking rates 25bps to 1% without Governor Ueda and signaling more hikes ahead despite a 250% debt/GDP ratio, the European Parliament ratifying the US-EU trade deal 440-151 with 15% tariffs on most EU goods and preferential access for US farm produce, the Huntsman-Olin merger creating OlinHuntsman with $400 million in synergies, and growing skepticism around the Iran deal as bonds refuse to buy in and disagreements remain over Hormuz tolls, the nuclear timeline, and Israel's posture on Lebanon.Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefingPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

Ben and Tom discuss the Iran-US agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz with the blockade lifted immediately, $25 billion in phased sanction relief, a permanent end to hostilities including Lebanon, and an expected Friday signing in Geneva, the market reaction with oil dropping 5.6% to $80, the Nasdaq up 2.2%, and gold rising 3%, and the start of Warsh Week with the new Fed Chair pushing to scrap forward guidance and remake Fed communication.Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefingPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

Tom and Thomas discuss SpaceX's IPO trading kicking off around midday with crypto markets implying a $2.3 trillion valuation 30-50% above the IPO price, the heavy skepticism that SPCX can hold that level, the Trump administration's power emergency declaration in the southeastern US allowing plants to exceed pollution limits during dangerous heat, and the framework of the Iran deal including a 30-day Strait of Hormuz reopening, $300 billion in reconstruction funding, the release of $24 billion in frozen assets, and a permanent end to hostilities.Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefingPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

Ben and Tom discuss Oracle's 8% drop on a $40 billion capital raise plan and CapEx ballooning to $90-95 billion against just 6% EPS growth, the ECB hiking rates for the first time since 2023 to 2.25% into a sagging expansion, today's PPI print and 30-year auction, Rick Rieder's case for Fed cuts and fixed-income opportunities, OpenAI weighing drastic token price cuts to fend off Anthropic, and why Google's equity-funded AI buildout raises real questions about ROIC.Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefingPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss Trump's Truth Social post declaring Iran's military "completely defeated" and the deal effectively dead, today's CPI print with consensus at +4.2% headline, the BOJ rate hike path complicated by Governor Ueda's hospitalization, Super Micro's $7 billion dilutive stock offering to fund $39 billion in backlog orders, the building AI supply overhang from OpenAI's S-1, Google, SpaceX, and Perplexity's 2028 IPO plans, Claude Fable 5's release stabilizing tech, TSMC's 30% May sales rebound, and Oracle earnings tonight.Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefingPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss China's $295 billion AI infrastructure plan that hands 80% of the buildout to Huawei and squeezes out Nvidia and AMD, Taiwan's tightening AI chip export controls, Korea's 8% rebound after yesterday's circuit breaker, OpenAI's S-1 filing as it races Anthropic to be the first AI lab to go public, the finalized $36 billion Apollo-Blackstone-Google-Anthropic-Broadcom TPU financing deal, and Apple's underwhelming WWDC keynote with a slow Siri AI rollout limited outside the US.Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefingPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

Andrew, Tom, and Thomas discuss Korea's stock market hitting a circuit breaker overnight with an 8.5% drop, bond traders positioning for a 4.3% CPI surge that could complicate Kevin Warsh's rate-cut plans, and what the renewed inflation fears mean for markets, the Fed, and the AI trade.Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefingPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss Zelensky's open letter to Putin proposing direct man-to-man peace talks with potential involvement from the US and Europe as security guarantors, while Trump is focused on Iran, and S&P Dow Jones Indices' surprise rejection of SpaceX's S&P 500 inclusion, citing GAAP profitability and float requirements.Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefingPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss Netflix's integration of generative AI and natural language processing to help viewers cut through content overload with personalized recommendations and a voice user interface, alongside the latest Iran update with the Foreign Minister claiming no tangible progress in talks, Bibi Netanyahu's CNBC comments raising the prospect of restarting the war, Trump's hope for a weekend deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and the market reaction with oil rising and bonds selling off.Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefingPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss the SpaceX IPO targeting a $1.75 trillion valuation with a record $75 billion raise pricing next Thursday, historical data on how mega-IPOs perform and float dynamics, the anomalous JOLTS job openings jump in the West, today's ISM Services and Fed Beige Book releases, and the USTR's new Section 301 tariffs of 10-12.5% on major trading partners including Canada, the EU, Mexico, China, and the UK tied to forced labor.Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefingPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss Google's $80 billion equity raise to fund AI infrastructure CapEx through mandatory convertible preferred stock, Class A and C common stock, and an at-the-market offering, Berkshire Hathaway taking a $10 billion stake at a discount, the administrative shift to corporate cash for employee RSU tax obligations, the broader AI cash crunch with $80 billion of SpaceX stock and Anthropic's IPO filing hitting the market, and which hyperscaler MSFT, ORCL, META, or AMZN could be next to raise.Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefingPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

Ben and Tom discuss Berkshire Hathaway's $6.8 billion acquisition of Taylor Morrison Homes at a 24% premium as Greg Abel's first big move as CEO and its integration with Clayton Homes for the Sunbelt first-time buyer market, and Nvidia's entry into the Windows PC market with the RTX Spark Superchip in Dell and Lenovo laptops, sending INTC, QCOM, and AMD shares lower.Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefingPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure