Podcasts about our head

Our Head of Asia Technology Research Shawn Kim discusses China's distinctly different approach to AI development and its investment implications.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Shawn Kim, Head of Morgan Stanley's Asia Technology Team. Today: a behind-the-scenes look at how China is reshaping the global AI landscape. It's Tuesday, June 10 at 2pm in Hong Kong. China has been quietly and methodically executing on its top-down strategy to establish its domestic AI capabilities ever since 2017. And while U.S. semiconductor restrictions have presented a near-term challenge, they have also forced China to achieve significant advancements in AI with less hardware. So rather than building the most powerful AI capabilities, China's primary focus has been on bringing AI to market with maximum efficiency. And you can see this with the recent launch of DeepSeek R1, and there are literally hundreds of AI start-ups using open-source Large Language Models to carve out niches and moats in this AI landscape. The key question is: What is the path forward? Can China sustain this momentum and translate its research prowess into global AI leadership? The answer hinges on four things: its energy, its data, talent, and computing. China's centralized government – with more than a billion mobile internet users – possess enormous amounts of data. China also has access to abundant energy: it built 10 nuclear power plants just last year, and there are ten more coming this year. U.S. chips are far better for the moment, but China is also advancing quickly; and getting a lot done without the best chips. Finally, China has plenty of talent – according to the World Economic Forum, 47 percent of the world's top AI researchers are now in China. Plus, there is already a comprehensive AI governance framework in place, with more than 250 regulatory standards ensuring that AI development remains secure, ethical, and strategically controlled. So, all in all, China is well on its way to realizing its ambitious goal of becoming a world leader in AI by 2030. And by that point, AI will be deeply embedded across all sectors of China's economy, supported by a regulatory environment. We believe the AI revolution will boost China's long-term potential GDP growth by addressing key structural headwinds to the economy, such as aging demographics and slowing productivity growth. We estimate that GenAI can create almost 7 trillion RMB in labor and productivity value. This equals almost 5 percent of China's GDP growth last year. And the investment implications of China's approach to AI cannot be overstated. It's clear that China has already established a solid AI foundation. And now meaningful opportunities are emerging not just for the big players, but also for smaller, mass-market businesses as well. And with value shifting from AI hardware to the AI application layer, we see China continuing its success in bringing out AI applications to market and transforming industries in very practical terms. As history shows, whoever adopts and diffuses a new technology the fastest wins – and is difficult to displace. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Our Head of Forecasting Johan Löf joins the pod as James Sproule and Daniel Mahoney discuss what's needed for governments in the UK and US to meet their financial obligations.And ahead of the UK Spending Review, Daniel Mahoney outlines the obstacles facing the chancellor. All in under 15 minutes.Join the conversation by dropping us a comment below, and rate us wherever you're listening.

Our Head of Corporate Credit Research explains why the legal confusion over U.S. tariffs plus the pending U.S. budget bill equals a revived focus on interest rates for investors.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley.Today I'm going to revisit a theme that was topical in January and has become so again. How much of a problem are higher interest rates?It's Friday, May 30th at 2pm in London.If it wasn't so serious, it might be a little funny. This year, markets fell quickly as the U.S. imposed tariffs. And then markets rose quickly as many of those same tariffs were paused or reversed. So, what's next?Many tariffs are technically just paused and so are scheduled to resume; and overall tariff rates, even after recent reductions towards China, are still historically high. The economic data that would really reflect the impact of recent events, well, it simply hasn't been reported yet. In short, there is still significant uncertainty around the near-term path for U.S. growth. But for all of our tariff weary listeners, let's pretend for a moment that tariffs are now on the back burner. And if that's the case, interest rates are coming back into focus.First, lower tariffs could mean stronger growth and thus higher interest rates, all else equal. But also importantly, current budget proposals in the U.S. Congress significantly increase government borrowing, which could also raise interest rates. If current proposals were to become permanent. for example, they could add an additional [$]15 trillion to the national debt over the next 30 years, over and above what was expected to happen per analysis from Yale University.Recall that prior to tariffs dominating the market conversation, it was this issue of interest rates and government borrowing that had the market's attention in January. And then, as today, it's this 30-year perspective that is under the most scrutiny. U.S. 30-year government bond yields briefly touched 5 percent on January 14th and returned there quite recently.This represents some of the highest yields for long-term U.S. borrowing seen in the last two decades. Those higher yields represent higher costs that must ultimately be borne by the U.S. government, but they also represent a yardstick against which all other investments are measured. If you can earn 5 percent per year long term in a safe U.S. government bond, how does that impact the return you require to invest in something riskier over that long run – from equities to an office building.I think some numbers here are also quite useful. Investing $10,000 today at 5 percent would leave you with about $43,000 in 30 years. And so that is the hurdle rate against which all long-term investments or now being measured.Of course, many other factors can impact the performance of those other assets. U.S. stocks, in fairness, have returned well over 5 percent over a long period of time. But one winner in our view will be intermediate and longer-term investment grade bonds. With high yields on these instruments, we think there will be healthy demand. At the same time, those same high yields representing higher costs for companies to borrow over the long term may mean we see less supply.Thank you as always, for your time. If you find Thoughts on the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen. And tell a friend or colleague about us today.

S3E7: Narrating Joy: Unveiling a CE-CERT tool  Imagine if your career satisfaction and well-being depended on the narrative you create about your work. In this episode, we delve into the Components for Enhancing Career Experience and Reducing Trauma (CE-CERT) approach, focusing on the domain of conscious narrative and its crucial role in sustaining professionals in the child abuse field. Dr. Brian Miller, the developer of the CE-CERT model, and Karen Hangartner, Director of Professional Services with the National Children's Advocacy Center, share their insights on how this concept is influencing the CAC community. Join us as we explore how transforming our conscious narrative can help us foster a deeper love for our work. Download Transcript   Guests:   Karen Hangartner, LMSW     Director of Professional Services   National Children's Advocacy Center    Brian Miller, Ph.D.  Author and Trainer  Self-employed    Show Notes: This episode of the "SRCAC Exchange" focuses on the importance of conscious narratives in the work of Children's Advocacy Centers (CACs) professionals, particularly those dealing with child abuse. Today, Christina Rouse engages with experts Dr. Brian Miller, developer of the CE-CERT (Components for Enhancing Career Wellbeing and Reducing Trauma) model, and Karen Hangartner, Director of Professional Services at the National Children's Advocacy Center. Together, they explore how the narratives professionals create about their work can either sustain or hinder their passion and commitment over time. They emphasize how the conscious narrative skill, one of the five domains of the CE-CERT model, helps professionals stay connected to their purpose and avoid burnout despite the challenges of working in high-trauma environments.  Through personal reflections and research, the episode encourages CAC professionals to embrace their work by finding joy in even the difficult moments, using tools like conscious narrative practices to frame their experiences positively. It discusses how supportive supervision and organizational culture play crucial roles in helping individuals maintain career-sustaining narratives, which ultimately foster resilience. By practicing self-reflection and mindful narratives, professionals can better serve their communities while finding fulfillment and longevity in their careers. Hit the subscribe button now!    Key Quotes:  “The most distinctive characteristic of professionals who are passionate and committed is the content of their narrative.”- Brian Miller, PhD  “We don't have to be victims of this work.”- Karen Hangartner, LMSW    Resources:   Reducing Secondary Traumatic Stress: Skills for Sustaining a Career in the Helping Professions by Brian C. Miller [Book]  Chatter: The Voice in Our Head, Why It Matters, and How to Harness It by Ethan Kross [Book]  The California Evidence-Based Clearinghouse for Child Welfare: CE-CERT [Website]  Host: Christina Rouse, MSW  Program Manager, CAC Development  Southern Regional CAC   Project Manager:  Lauren Tanner, MSEd  Program Manager, Communications & Instructional Design  Southern Regional CAC    Season Resources: CE-CERT Training [Training]  Reset. Reflect. Refuel. Hub [Video Series]   Psychological First Aid Guide for Children's Advocacy Center Supervisors [Resource]    Want to hear more? Subscribe to The SRCAC Exchange to be sure you don't miss an episode!   Like what you hear? Show your support by leaving a rating and review for The SRCAC Exchange podcast.     Connect with SRCAC by:  Visiting our website  Signing up for our emails  Following us on Facebook & LinkedIn  Contacting us  Connect with your Chapter:  Midwest Region Chapters  Northeast Region Chapters  Southern Region Chapters  Western Region Chapters  Connect to your Regional CAC    National Children's Advocacy Center  Peachtree Sound  Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention    Follow SRCAC on Facebook and LinkedIn for more learning content!

Ethan Kross shares simple, science-backed tools for managing your emotions. — YOU'LL LEARN — 1) When avoidance is actually helpful 2) Effortless strategies for quickly shifting your mood 3) The emotional regulation framework used by the Navy SEALs Subscribe or visit AwesomeAtYourJob.com/ep1050 for clickable versions of the links below. — ABOUT ETHAN — Ethan Kross, PhD, author of the national bestseller Chatter, is one of the world's leading experts on emotion regulation. An award-winning professor in the University of Michigan's top ranked Psychology Department and its Ross School of Business, he is the Director of the Emotion and Self-Control Laboratory. Ethan has participated in policy discussion at the White House and has been interviewed about his research on CBS Evening News, Good Morning America, Anderson Cooper Full Circle, and NPR's Morning Edition. His research has been featured in The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, The New Yorker, The New England Journal of Medicine, and Science. He completed his BA at the University of Pennsylvania and his PhD at Columbia University.• Book: Shift: Managing Your Emotions--So They Don't Manage You • Book: Chatter: The Voice in Our Head, Why It Matters, and How to Harness It • Study: “Remotely administered non-deceptive placebos reduce COVID-related stress, anxiety, and depression” with Darwin A. Guevarra, Christopher T. Webster, Jade N. Moros, and Jason S. Moser • Website: EthanKross.com — RESOURCES MENTIONED IN THE SHOW — • Book: The Lincoln Letter: A Peter Fallon Novel (Peter Fallon and Evangeline Carrington) by William Martin • Book: Emotional Agility: Get Unstuck, Embrace Change, and Thrive in Work and Life by Susan David • Book: Man's Search for Meaning by Viktor Frankl • Book: The Amazing Adventures of Kavalier & Clay: A Novel by Michael Chabon • Past episode: 023: The Power of Workplace Humor with Michael KerrSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Our Head of Corporate Credit Research analyzes the market response to President Trump's tariff reversal and explains why rallies do not always indicate an improvement in the overall environment.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley. ---- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley. Today I'm going to talk about the historic gains we saw this week in markets, and what they may or may not tell us. It's Friday April 11th at 2pm in London. Wednesday saw the S&P 500 gain 9.5 percent. It was the 10th best day for the U.S. equity market in the last century. Which raises a reasonable question: Is that a good thing? Do large one-day gains suggest further strength ahead – or something else? This is the type of Research question we love digging into. Pulling together the data, it's pretty straightforward to sort through those other banner days in stock market history going back to 1925. And what they show is notable. I'm now going to read to you when those large gains occurred, in order of the gains themselves. The best day in market history, March 15th 1933, when stocks soared over 16 per cent? It happened during the Great Depression. The 2nd best day, Oct 30th 1929. During the Great Depression. The 3rd best day – Great Depression. The fourth best – the first trading day after Germany invaded Poland in 1939 and World War 2 began. The 5th best day – Great Depression. The 6th Best – October 2008, during the Financial Crisis. The 7th Best – also during the Financial Crisis. The 8th best. The Great Depression again. The 9th best – The Great Depression. And 10th best? Well, that was Wednesday. We are in interesting company, to say the least. Incidentally, we stop here in the interest of brevity; this is a podcast known for being sharp and to the point. But if we kept moving further down the list, the next best 20 days in history all happen during either COVID, the 1987 Crash, a Recession, or a Depression. So why would that be? Why, factually, have some of the best days in market history occurred during some of the very worst of possible backdrops. In some cases, it really was a sign of a buying opportunity. As terrible as the Great Depression was – and as the grandson of a South Dakota farmer I heard the tales – stocks were very cheap at this time, and there were some very large rallies in 1932, 1933, or even 1929. During COVID, the gains on March 24th of 2020, which were associated with major stimulus, represented the major market low. But it can also be the case that during difficult environments, investors are cautious. And they are ultimately right to be cautious. But because of that fear, any good news – any spark of hope – can cause an outsized reaction. But it also sometimes doesn't change that overall challenging picture. And then reverses. Those two large rallies that happened in October of 2008 during the Global Financial Crisis, well they both happened around hopes of government and central bank support. And that temporarily lifted the market – but it didn't shift the overall picture. What does this mean for investors? On average, markets are roughly unchanged in the three months following some of these largest historical gains. But the range of what happens next is very wide. It is a sign, we think, that these are not normal times, and that the range of outcomes, unfortunately, has become larger. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Is self-control something you're born with—or something you can teach your kids, starting today? Psychologist and bestselling author Ethan Kross takes us into the science of the inner voice, revealing how our thoughts shape our behaviour—and how we can shape our thoughts. From powerful tools that help children talk to themselves like a friend to simple mindset shifts that build long-term resilience, this conversation is packed with practical wisdom for raising emotionally intelligent, self-regulated kids. KEY POINTS: Self-control is a skill that can be taught and strengthened. The inner voice is a powerful tool in navigating emotions and decision-making. Kids benefit from learning how to create psychological distance during challenges. Techniques like mental time travel and third-person self-talk are effective at all ages. Parents have a unique opportunity to guide how children learn to speak to themselves. QUOTE OF THE EPISODE:“We’re not born with self-control; we learn it. And the tools we use to manage our mind are like muscles—we can train them.” KEY INSIGHTS FOR PARENTS: Help your child shift perspective by asking, “What would you say to a friend?” Build emotional resilience by teaching kids to recall times they’ve overcome obstacles. Model calm and constructive self-talk in your own moments of stress—kids are watching. Introduce the idea of an “inner coach” who can guide them through tough situations. RESOURCES MENTIONED: Chatter: The Voice in Our Head, Why It Matters, and How to Harness It by Ethan Kross University of Michigan’s Emotion & Self-Control Lab Techniques such as self-distancing, visualisation, and reflective self-talk ACTION STEPS FOR PARENTS: Be intentional with your own self-talk—your children are learning from you. Use playful, imaginative language to teach kids how to create emotional distance. Encourage children to reflect on past successes to fuel future confidence. Practice third-person self-talk together to turn overwhelming moments into teachable ones. Keep emotional regulation tools simple, visual, and consistent. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Let's be honest — most speakers spend a lot of time crafting their talk, but when it comes to what they wear on stage? That's often a rushed afterthought… or a full-blown panic. Are you second-guessing whether your outfit actually helps or hinders your message? Ever watched back your talk and thought, “What was I thinking with that jacket?” Or maybe you've stuck to the same ‘safe' outfit for years, even though it doesn't really feel like you anymore? Well, this episode is for you. Because how you show up visually matters. Not in a “fashion week” kind of way, but in a connection, confidence and credibility kind of way. And to help us nail that balance between comfort, authenticity and speaker presence, I've brought in stylist to the speakers — Kay Korsh. Kay's not your average personal stylist. She's dressed A-list celebrities, worked with luxury magazines, and now she's on a mission to help speakers look the part, feel amazing, and avoid wardrobe disasters that distract from their message. She's the real deal — equal parts savvy, stylish and strategic. What you'll discover: The #1 thing your outfit might be silently saying about you (and how to fix it) Why you ‘shouldn't' dress like a model... and who you should model instead How to develop a signature style that makes you stand out — without feeling uncomfortable A simple way to stop your outfit undermining you on stage How to travel without looking like you slept in your suitcase (yes, even in linen) Why certain colours can drain you on stage — and how to make them work with your brand Plus… how Kay helped one client land her biggest gig just by changing her outfit (it's a cracking story). How styling for speakers differs from people in the entertainment industry. How speakers get the balance right between sharing their authentic self and personality, whilst still meeting event and audience expectations when it comes to their wardrobe choices. Cost-effective ways to elevate your professional appearance, if you're on a budget So whether you're a keynote pro or just starting to get your message out there, this episode will help you sharpen your image, simplify your wardrobe, and show up with more power on stage — without losing your personality. Enjoy!   If you'd like to watch the interview on YouTube, you can do that here>>   All things Kay: Website: https://www.mindoverfashion.com LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/kay-korsh/   Books & Resources*: The Gifts of Imperfection by Brene Brown Chatter: The Voice in Our Head and How to Harness It by Ethan Kross Colour Quiz for Professional Speakers: Interactive Calculators & Quizzes Ultimate step-by-step guide to looking great on stage: https://outfit.mindoverfashion.com/look-great-on-stage-as-a-professional-speaker   Speaking Resources: Grab Your From Blank Page to Stage Guide and Nail the Topic for a Client Winning Talk Want to get better at finding and sharing your stories then check out our FREE Five Day Snackable Story Challenge   Thanks for listening!   To share your thoughts:                                                   Share this show on X, Facebook or LinkedIn. To help the show out: Leave an honest review at https://www.ratethispodcast.com/tsc Your ratings and reviews really help get the word out and I read each one. Subscribe on iTunes. *(please note if you use my link I get a small commission, but this does not affect your payment)

Can self-control be taught? In this episode, Justin and Kylie explore the science of self-regulation and how parents can help their kids—and themselves—build better habits. Drawing on an insightful interview with Professor Ethan Kross, author of Chatter, the conversation highlights strategies for boosting motivation, building emotional resilience, and taking control in those tricky moments where willpower fails. KEY POINTS: Self-control is not an innate trait—it's a skill that can be learned and strengthened. Motivation plays a crucial role in our capacity for self-control. External factors like being hungry, angry, lonely, tired, or stressed (HALTS) reduce our ability to regulate ourselves. Self-distancing, including the “Batman Effect,” can help children and adults manage strong emotions and make better decisions. People who appear to have strong self-control often just design their environments to avoid temptation. QUOTE OF THE EPISODE:“People who seem to have the most self-control often set up their environments in such a way that they don’t need to exercise it at all.” KEY INSIGHTS FOR PARENTS: Teaching kids self-control starts with helping them understand triggers and setting up supportive environments. Self-control can be undermined by stress and unmet needs—parents should be compassionate, not critical. The “Batman Effect” (asking “What would Batman do?”) helps kids take a step back from their impulses and act with intention. Modelling healthy responses and acknowledging your own challenges shows kids that emotional regulation is a lifelong practice. RESOURCES MENTIONED: Chatter: The Voice in Our Head, Why It Matters, and How to Harness It by Ethan Kross HALTS acronym (Hungry, Angry, Lonely, Tired, Stressed) Ethan Kross’s full interview (to be aired Saturday) happyfamilies.com.au ACTION STEPS FOR PARENTS: Teach kids about HALTS—help them recognise when their emotional state is affecting behaviour. Use the “Batman Effect” or similar strategies to encourage self-distancing during challenging moments. Model self-control by setting up environments that reduce temptation (e.g., not keeping junk food at home). Have regular conversations about motivation and how it supports goals and values. Tune in to the full interview with Ethan Kross for deeper insights and practical tools. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Our Head of Endurance, Tom, recently became a dad—so how has it impacted his training and life? In this episode, we dive into the challenges of balancing fatherhood and fitness, from sleep disrupted nights to shifting priorities. Tom shares how he's adapted, the unexpected lessons he's learned, and tips for athlete parents looking to stay consistent.

In this week's episode of ASEAN SPEAKS, our host Thilan is joined by our Regional Equity Strategist, Anand Pathmakanthan, to unpack the equity implications of Trump's Liberation Day tariffs, especially for ASEAN markets like Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia.Our Co-Head of Macro Research, Dr Chua Hak Bin, shares his views on the economic impact, including ASEAN growth downgrades and how China's retaliatory measures could shape the road ahead.Zooming in on Singapore, Thilan discusses why the STI's sharp drop could still present buying opportunities, and highlights key names in our Trump Tariff Winners portfolio.Our Head of Sustainability Research, Jigar Shah, introduces our latest ESG portfolio for Singapore, explaining how companies with strong sustainability practices are proving more resilient amid market volatility.Edited by Xuan Hao, Dion, Bruce

Hello, I'm James from Adventure Bike Rider and welcome to this special edition of the ABR Podcast, which is dedicated to answering your burning questions about the ABR Festival in June. These are the questions you've asked us more than others, the questions that are keeping you up at night as excitement builds ahead of the greatest celebration of adventure biking ever held. And joining me on the podcast to answer them is one of ABR's longest-serving staff members, the font of all festival knowledge, and one of my favourite people on the planet. Our Head of Customer Service, Abeer El-Sayed.BackgroundHeld in the stunning grounds of Ragley Hall in Warwickshire, the ABR Festival is the largest motorcycle festival in the UK. It brings together thousands of like-minded riders and the motorcycle industry to make new friends, share stories, and enjoy three incredible days of biking action and festival entertainment. Over 50km of the festival site is made up of custom-built off-road trails, including the Bridgestone Trail and TRF Trail, which are built for bikers to explore the best of this amazing corner of the Warwickshire countryside.The world's biggest bike manufacturers will be bringing fleets of their own machines for guests to take part in what's best described as the world's biggest test ride. Last year, over 10,000 demo rides we taken across the weekend of the ABR Festival, all free of charge to attendees. The best riding skills schools can be found on-site, offering free tuition throughout the weekend to riders of all abilities, from those who've never ridden off the tarmac before to trail-riding veterans who would simply like to brush up on their technique. Each school brings its own machines that guests can use free of charge, so riders won't have to risk their own bikes while they're learning. This June, more than 20 of the finest cover and party bands will be bringing the party to the BikerHeadz Stage and Bridgestone Stage, including one of the best AC/DC tribute acts in the shape of Let There B/DC, funk and soul kings, The Detroit Collective, Ibiza DJ Krystal Roxx, plus the man crowned in Memphis as the world's number one Ultimate Elvis Tribute Artist, Ben Portsmouth.Inspiration is at the heart of the ABR Festival, and we aim to encourage every biker to get the most of this incredible passion for two wheels that we all share. Visitors to ABR will be joined by some of the biggest names in adventure biking who will be on hand to share stories of intrepid travel across the globe, provide practical advice on how bikers can take their riding to the next level, and show off their incredible riding skills in the GoPro Display Arena. The comfort of all guests on site is our highest priority, so we offer Grade-A facilities to ensure everyone feels clean and refreshed throughout their stay. What does that look like? Well, ABR spent more money per head on premium flushing toilets and hot shower units than any other UK festival in 2024. Ticket holders will also find a huge selection of delectable street food to keep their energy levels up, plus 20 bars offering reasonably priced pints, soft drinks and cocktails, to keep them refreshed. All this combines to ensure anyone joining us will have the greatest weekend they've ever had on two wheels. The 2025 edition of the ABR Festival takes place from Thursday 26th to Sunday 29th June. Saturday and Weekend Tickets are available in extremely limited numbers and can be found here - https://www.abrfestival.com/tickets/

Welcome to another enlightening episode of Unmistakable Creative, where we delve into the mind's intricacies with our esteemed guest, Ethan Kross. A renowned psychologist and author, Ethan Kross, is a leading expert in controlling the inner voice that often leads us astray. In this episode, titled 'Ethan Kross | How to Deal With The Voice in Your Head,' we explore the science behind self-talk and how it influences our emotions and decisions.Ethan Kross shares his profound insights on how we can harness the power of our inner voice to improve our mental health and overall well-being. He presents fascinating research findings from his book, 'Chatter: The Voice in Our Head, Why It Matters, and How to Harness It.' This episode is a must-listen for anyone seeking to understand their inner dialogue and use it as a tool for personal growth.Join us on this enlightening journey with Ethan Kross and learn how to master your inner voice. Discover the strategies to transform your self-talk from a source of stress into a valuable tool for problem-solving and emotional management. Don't miss out on this opportunity to gain a deeper understanding of your mind and unlock your potential. Tune in to 'Ethan Kross | How to Deal With The Voice in Your Head' on Unmistakable Creative. Subscribe for ad-free interviews and bonus episodes https://plus.acast.com/s/the-unmistakable-creative-podcast. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

As equity markets gyrate in response to unpredictable U.S. policy, credit has taken longer to respond. Our Head of Corporate Credit Research, Andrew Sheets, suggests other indicators investors should have an eye on, including growth data.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley. Today on the podcast, I'll be discussing how much comfort or concern equity and credit markets should be taking from each other's recent moves.It's Friday, March 14th at 2pm in London. Credit has weakened as markets have gyrated in the face of rising uncertainty around U.S. economic policy. But it has been a clear outperformer. The credit market has taken longer to react to recent headlines, and seen a far more modest response to them. While the U.S. stock market, measured as the S&P 500, is down about 10 per cent, the U.S. High Yield bond index, comprised of lower-rated corporate bonds, is down about just 1 per cent.How much comfort should stock markets take from credit's resilience? And what could cause Credit to now catch-down to that larger weakness in equities?A good place to start with these questions is what we think are really three distinct stories behind the volatility and weakness that we're seeing in markets. First, the nature of U.S. policy towards tariffs, with plenty of on-again, off-again drama, has weakened business confidence and dealmaking; and that's cut off a key source of corporate animal spirits and potential upside in the market. Second and somewhat relatedly, that reduced upside has lowered enthusiasm for many of the stocks that had previously been doing the best. Many of these stocks were widely held, and that's created vulnerability and forced selling as previously popular positions were cut. And third, there have been growing concerns that this lower confidence from businesses and consumers will spill over into actual spending, and raise the odds of weaker growth and even a recession.I think a lot of credit's resilience over the last month and a half, can be chalked up to the fact that the asset class is rightfully more relaxed about the first two of these issues. Lower corporate confidence may be a problem for the stock market, but it can actually be an ok thing if you're a lender because it keeps borrowers more conservative. And somewhat relatedly, the sell-off in popular, high-flying stocks is also less of an issue. A lot of these companies are, for the most part, quite different from the issuers that dominate the corporate credit market.But the third issue, however, is a big deal. Credit is extremely sensitive to large changes in the economy. Morgan Stanley's recent downgrade of U.S. growth expectations, the lower prices on key commodities, the lower yields on government bonds and the underperformance of smaller more cyclical stocks are all potential signs that risks to growth are rising. It's these factors that the credit market, perhaps a little bit belatedly, is now reacting to.So what does this all mean?First, we're mindful of the temptation for equity investors to look over at the credit market and take comfort from its resilience. But remember, two of the biggest issues that have faced stocks – those lower odds of animal spirits, and the heavy concentration in a lot of the same names – were never really a credit story. And so to feel better about those risks, we think you'll want to look at other different indicators.Second, what about the risk from the other direction, that credit catches up – or maybe more accurately down – to the stock market? This is all about that third factor: growth. If the growth data holds up, we think credit investors will feel justified in their more modest reaction, as all-in yields remain good. But if data weakens, the risks to credit grow rapidly, especially as our U.S. economists think that the Fed could struggle to lower interest rates as fast as markets are currently hoping they will.And so with growth so important, and Morgan Stanley's tracking estimates for U.S. growth currently weak, we think it's too early to go bottom fishing in corporate bonds. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Our Head of U.S. IT Hardware Erik Woodring gives his key takeaways from Morgan Stanley's Technology, Media and Telecom (TMT) conference, including why there appears to be a long runway ahead for AI infrastructure spending, despite macro uncertainty. ----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Erik Woodring, Morgan Stanley's Head of U.S. IT Hardware Research. Here are some reflections I recorded last week at Morgan Stanley's Technology, Media, and Telecom Conference in San Francisco. It's Monday, March 10th at 9am in New York. This was another year of record attendance at our TMT Conference. And what is clear from speaking to investors is that the demand for new, under-discovered or under-appreciated ideas is higher than ever. In a stock-pickers' market – like the one we have now – investors are really digging into themes and single name ideas. Big picture – uncertainty was a key theme this week. Whether it's tariffs and the changing geopolitical landscape, market volatility, or government spending, the level of relative uncertainty is elevated. That said, we are not hearing about a material change in demand for PCs, smartphones, and other technology hardware. On the enterprise side of my coverage, we are emerging from one of the most prolonged downcycles in the last 10-plus years, and what we heard from several enterprise hardware vendors and others is an expectation that most enterprise hardware markets – PCs , Servers, and Storage – return to growth this year given pent up refresh demand. This, despite the challenges of navigating the tariff situation, which is resulting in most companies raising prices to mitigate higher input costs. On the consumer side of the world, the demand environment for more discretionary products like speakers, cameras, PCs and other endpoint devices looks a bit more challenged. The recent downtick in consumer sentiment is contributing to this environment given the close correlation between sentiment and discretionary spending on consumer technology goods. Against this backdrop, the most dynamic topic of the conference remains GenerativeAI. What I've been hearing is a confidence that new GenAI solutions can increasingly meet the needs of market participants. They also continue to evolve rapidly and build momentum towards successful GenAI monetization. To this point, underlying infrastructure spending—on servers, storage and other data center componentry – to enable these emerging AI solutions remains robust. To put some numbers behind this, the 10 largest cloud customers are spending upwards of [$]350 billion this year in capex, which is up over 30 percent year-over-year. Keep in mind that this is coming off the strongest year of growth on record in 2024. Early indications for 2026 CapEx spending still point to growth, albeit a deceleration from 2025. And what's even more compelling is that it's still early days. My fireside chats this week highlighted that AI infrastructure spending from their largest and most sophisticated customers is only in the second inning, while AI investments from enterprises, down to small and mid-sized businesses, is only in the first inning, or maybe even earlier. So there appears to be a long runway ahead for AI infrastructure spending, despite the volatility we have seen in AI infrastructure stocks, which we see as an opportunity for investors. I'd just highlight that amidst the elevated market uncertainty, there is a prioritization on cost efficiencies and adopting GenAI to drive these efficiencies. Company executives from some of the major players this week all discussed near-term cost efficiency initiatives, and we expect these efforts to both help protect the bottom line and drive productivity growth amidst a quickly changing market backdrop. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Last week, the S&P 500 fell 3.10% suffering its worst week since September last year. The Dow Jones fell 2.37%, while the Nasdaq Composite lost 3.45%. Meanwhile, in Europe the Stoxx 600 closed 0.46% lower on Friday, marking its first losing week in 2025. Nevertheless, Europe's new plans to increase spending on defence did have a positive effect on the aerospace and defence sectors. Canada has a new Prime Minister in the form of ex Bank of England Governor, Mark Carney. Although he has not actually assumed the role yet, he is already promising to stand up to President Trump. He might have to stand up to China first: they announced new tariffs (some up to 100%) on some of Canada's goods over the weekend. Our Head of Technical Analysis, Mensur Pocinci, joins the show today to explain why we should pay attention to the 200-day moving average when examining US equities charts.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:31 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)06:19 Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)09:09 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Two recent surveys indicate that U.S. consumer confidence has shown a notable decline amid talks about inflation and potential tariff. Our Head of Corporate Credit Research Andrew Sheets discusses the market implications.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley. Today I'm going to talk about the consumer side of the confidence debate. It's Thursday, February 27th at 2pm in London. Two weeks ago on this program I discussed signs that uncertainty in U.S. government policy might be hitting corporate confidence, as evidenced by an unusually slow start to the year for dealmaking. That development is a mixed bag. Less confidence and more conservatism in companies holds back investment and reduces the odds of the type of animal spirits that can drive large gains. But it can be a good thing for lenders, who generally prefer companies to be more cautious and more risk-averse. But this question of confidence is also relevant for consumers. And today, I want to discuss what some of the early surveys suggest and how it can impact our view.To start with something that may sound obvious but is nonetheless important, Confidence is an extremely powerful psychological force in the economy and financial markets. If you feel good enough about the future, you'll buy a stock or a car with little regard to the price or how the economy might feel at the moment. And if you're worried, you won't buy those same things, even if your current conditions are still ok, or if the prices are even cheaper. Confidence, you could say, can trump almost everything else. And so this might help explain the market's intense focus on two key surveys over the last week that suggested that US consumer confidence has been deteriorating sharply.First, a monthly survey by the University of Michigan showed a drop in consumer confidence and a rise in expected inflation. And then a few days later, on Tuesday, a similar survey from the Conference Board showed a similar pattern, with consumers significantly more worried about the future, even if they felt the current conditions hadn't much changed. While different factors could be at play, there is at least circumstantial evidence that the flurry of recent U.S. policy actions may be playing a role. This drop in confidence, for example, was new, and has only really showed up in the last month or two. And the University of Michigan survey actually asks its respondents how news of Government Economic policy is impacting their level of confidence. And that response, over the last month, showed a precipitous decline. These confidence surveys are often called ‘soft' data, as opposed to the hard economic numbers like the actual sales of cars or heavy equipment. But the reason they matter, and the reason investors listened to them this week, is that they potentially do something that other data cannot. One of the biggest challenges that investors face when looking at economic data is that financial markets often anticipate, and move ahead of turns in the underlying hard economic numbers. And so if expectations are predictive of the future, they may provide that important, more leading signal. One weak set of consumer confidence isn't enough to change the overall picture, but it certainly has our attention. Our U.S. economists generally agree with these respondents in expecting somewhat slower growth and stickier inflation over the next 18 months; and Morgan Stanley continues to forecast lower bond yields across the U.S. and Europe on the expectation that uncertainties around growth will persist. For credit investors, less confidence remains a double-edged sword, and credit markets have been somewhat more stable than other assets. But we would view further deterioration in confidence as a negative – given the implications for growth, even if it meant a somewhat easier policy path. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Our Head of Foreign Exchange & Emerging Markets Strategy James Lord discusses how much tariff-driven volatility investors can expect in currency markets this year.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm James Lord, Morgan Stanley's Head of Foreign Exchange & Emerging Markets Strategy. Today – the implications of tariffs for volatility on foreign exchange markets. It's Thursday, February 13th, at 3pm in London. Foreign exchange markets are following President Trump's tariff proposals with bated breath. A little over a week ago investors faced significant uncertainty over proposed tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China. In the end, the U.S. reached a deal with Canada and Mexico, but a 10 per cent tariff on Chinese imports went into effect. Currencies experienced heightened volatility during the negotiations, but the net impacts at the end of the negotiations were small. Announced tariffs on steel and aluminum have had a muted impact too, but the prospect of reciprocal tariffs are keeping investors on edge. We believe there are three key lessons investors can take away from this recent period of tariff tension. First of all, we need to distinguish between two different types of tariffs. The first type is proposed with the intention to negotiate; to reach a deal with affected countries on key issues. The second type of tariff serves a broader purpose. Imposing them might reduce the U.S. trade deficit or protect key domestic industries.There may also be examples where these two distinct approaches to tariffs meld, such as the reciprocal tariffs that President Trump has also discussed. The market impacts of these different tariffs vary significantly. In cases where the ultimate objective is to make a deal on a separate issue, any currency volatility experienced during the tariff negotiations will very likely reverse – if a deal is made. However, if the tariffs are part of a broader economic strategy, then investors should consider more seriously whether currency impacts are going to be more long-lasting. For instance, we believe that tariffs on imports from China should be considered in this context. As a result, we do see sustained dollar/renminbi upside, with that currency pair likely to hit 7.6 in the second half of 2025. A second key issue for investors is going to be the timing of tariffs. April 1st is very likely going to be a key date for Foreign Exchange markets as more details around the America First Trade Policy are likely revealed. We could see the U.S. dollar strengthen in the days leading up to this date, and investors are likely to consider where subsequently there will be a more significant push to enact tariffs. A final question for investors to ponder is going to be whether foreign exchange volatility would move to a structurally higher plane, or simply rise episodically. Many investors currently assume that FX volatility will be higher this year, thanks to the uncertainty created by trade policy. However, so far, the evidence doesn't really support this conclusion. Indicators that track the level of uncertainty around global trade policy did rise during President Trump's first term, specifically around the period of escalating tariffs on China. And while this was associated with a stronger [U.S.] dollar, it did not lead to rising levels of FX volatility. We can see again, at the start of Trump's second term, that rising uncertainty over trade policy has been consistent with a stronger U.S. dollar. And while FX volatility has increased a bit, so far the impact has been relatively muted – and implied volatility is still well below the highs that we've seen in the past ten years. FX volatility is likely to rise around key dates and periods of escalation; and while structurally higher levels of FX volatility could still occur, the odds of that happening would increase if tariffs resulted in more substantial macro economic consequences for the U.S. economy.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, leave us a review wherever you listen. And share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or a colleague today.

The down-to-the-deadline nature of Trump's trade policy has created market uncertainty. Our Head of Corporate Credit Research Andrew Sheets points out a silver lining. ----- Listener Survey -----Complete a short listener survey at http://www.morganstanley.com/podcast-survey and help us make the podcast even more valuable for you. For every survey completed, Morgan Stanley will donate $25 to the Feeding America® organization to support their important work.----- Transcript -----Hi, I'm Michael Zezas, Global Head of Fixed Income Research & Public Policy Strategy at Morgan Stanley. Before we get into today's episode, the team behind Thoughts on the Market wants your thoughts and your input. Fill out our listener survey and help us make this podcast even more valuable for you. The link is in the show notes and you'll hear it at the end of the episode.Plus, help us help the Feeding America organization. For every survey completed, Morgan Stanley will donate $25 toward their important work. Thanks for your time and support. On to the show… Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley. Today I'm going to talk about a potential silver lining to the significant uptick in uncertainty around U.S. trade policy. It's Wednesday, February 12th at 2pm in London. One of the nuances of our market view is that we think credit spreads remain tight despite rising levels of corporate confidence and activity. We think these things can co-exist, at least temporarily, because the level of corporate activity is still so low, and so it could rise quite a bit and still only be in-line with the long-term trend. And so while more corporate activity and aggression is usually a negative for lenders and drives credit spreads wider, we don't think it's quite one yet. But maybe there is even less tension in these views than we initially thought. The first four weeks of the new U.S. Administration have seen a flurry of policy announcements on tariffs. This has meant a lot for investors to digest and discuss, but it's meant a lot less to actual market prices. Since the inauguration, U.S. stocks and yields are roughly unchanged. That muted reaction may be because investors assume that, in many cases, these policies will be delayed, reversed or modified. For example, announced tariffs on Mexico and Canada have been delayed. A key provision concerning smaller shipments from China has been paused. So far, this pattern actually looks very consistent with the framework laid out by my colleagues Michael Zezas and Ariana Salvatore from the Morgan Stanley Public Policy team: fast announcements of action, but then much slower ultimate implementation. Yet while markets may be dismissing these headlines for now, there are signs that businesses are taking them more seriously. Per news reports, U.S. Merger and Acquisition activity in January just suffered its lowest level of activity since 2015. Many factors could be at play. But it seems at least plausible that the “will they, won't they” down-to-the-deadline nature of trade policy has increased uncertainty, something businesses generally don't like when they're contemplating big transformative action. And for lenders maybe that's the silver lining. We've been thinking that credit in 2025 would be a story of timing this steadily rising wave of corporate aggression. But if that wave is delayed, debt levels could end up being lower, bond issuance could be lower, and spread levels – all else equal – could be a bit tighter. Corporate caution isn't everywhere. In sectors that are seen as multi-year secular trends, such as AI data centers, investment plans continue to rise rapidly, with our colleagues in Equity Research tracking over $320bn of investment in 2025. But for activity that is more economically sensitive, uncertainty around trade policy may be putting companies on the back foot. That isn't great for business; but, temporarily, it could mean a better supply/demand balance for those that lend to them. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the podcast, help us make it even more valuable to you. Share your feedback on the show at morganstanley.com/podcast-survey. Or head to the episode notes for the survey link.

If you've ever felt like anxiety is running your life, this episode is for you. We're joined by Kimberly Quinlan, a licensed therapist, anxiety expert, and host of Your Anxiety Toolkit podcast—recognized by The New York Times as one of the top six podcasts to calm your anxious mind. In this conversation, Kimberly breaks down the biggest myths about anxiety, the difference between stress and clinical anxiety, and why your reaction to emotions (not the emotions themselves) might be the real issue. She also shares practical, science-backed strategies for managing anxiety in daily life, how self-criticism fuels anxiety, and why self-kindness is actually a secret weapon for motivation and success. Plus, we talk about the role of social media, perfectionism, and uncertainty in anxiety. If you've been looking for real tools to stop overthinking, calm your anxious mind, and take back control, this is the episode you can't afford to miss.  Mentioned in the Episode: Kimberley's Website + Get in Touch Your Anxiety Toolkit - Anxiety & OCD Strategies for Everyday (PODCAST) The Self-Compassion Workbook for OCD: Lean into Your Fear, Manage Difficult Emotions, and Focus On Recovery by Kimberley Quinlan & Jon Hershfield Chatter: The Voice in Our Head by Ethan Kross cbtschool.com  A Sony Music Entertainment production.  Find more great podcasts from Sony Music Entertainment at sonymusic.com/podcasts and follow us at @sonypodcasts  To bring your brand to life in this podcast, email podcastadsales@sonymusic.com  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

As we continue this great week of episodes, I'm delighted today to welcome Dr. Ethan Kross to the show to talk about his latest book Shift: Managing Your Emotions So They Don't Manage You, which is out February 4. Shift follows the success of Ethan's 2021 book Chatter: The Voice in Our Head, Why It Matters, and How to Harness It, which was an international bestseller. In Shift, we're talking all about emotions — and how they can be our superpower if we can learn how to regulate and manage them. How do we make our emotions work for us, rather than against us? Ethan is helping us find that answer. Ethan is a psychologist, neuroscientist, writer, and one of the world's leading experts on emotion regulation and is an award-winning professor in the University of Michigan's top-ranked psychology department and its Ross School of Business. He is also the director of the Emotion and Self-Control Laboratory. In addition to appearing on CBS Evening News, Good Morning America, Anderson Cooper Full Circle, and NPR's Morning Edition, he has participated in policy discussion at the White House and has had his research featured in The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, The New Yorker, The New England Journal of Medicine, USA Today, and more. He is a graduate of Penn and Columbia and has spoken at TED, SXSW, and consulted with some of the world's top executives and organizations. From Shift's opening pages, it's a power punch, and I'm excited for you to hear what he has to say. Shift: Managing Your Emotions So They Don't Manage You by Dr. Ethan Kross

Our Head of Corporate Credit Research and Head of Retail Consumer Credit discuss what choppy demand and tariff risk could mean for sectors that depend on consumer spending.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley.Jenna Gianelli: I'm Jenna Gianelli, Head of Retail Consumer Credit, here at Morgan Stanley.Andrew Sheets: And today on this episode, we're going to discuss the outlook for the retail and consumer sectors.It's Wednesday, Jan 29th at 9 am in New York.So, Jenna, it's great to talk with you, and it's really great to talk about the retail and consumer sectors heading into 2025, because it's such an important part of the investor debate. On the one hand, a lot of economic data in the U.S. seems strong, including a very low unemployment rate. And yet, we're also hearing a lot about cost-of-living pressures on consumers, lower consumer confidence, and investor concern that the consumer is just not going to be able to hold up in this higher rate environment. And then you can layer on uncertainty from the new administration. Will we see tariffs? How large will they be? And how will retailers, which often import a lot of their goods, handle those changes?So, maybe just kind of starting off at a 40, 000-foot view, how are you thinking about consumer dynamics going into 2025?Jenna Gianelli: Of course. So, I think that that choppy consumer demand environment is actually one of the strongest pillars of our more cautious view, going into next year. How the sector, performed last year was not in tandem with kind of what the macro headlines suggested. The macro headlines were quite positive, and the consumer was, you know, seemingly strong. But there was a lot going on under the hood when you looked at different dichotomies, right? So, if you looked at the high-end versus the low-end, if you looked at goods versus services. And then within, you know, certain categories, there were categories that were, you know, really quite strong based on what the consumer was prioritizing – goods, essentials, personal care, beauty, right? And then there were others that they really shied away from.So, I think what we're going to see in 2025 is quite a bit more of that. When we think that the high-end will continue to be resilient, that pressure on the low-income consumer will continue. But actually moderate potentially as into [20]25, as we think about lower interest rates, potentially, you know, lesser immigration and so less competition for jobs at the lower income level. So maybe even some tailwinds, but it's really an alleviation of pressure and easier compares. But we do expect overall some deceleration, right? Because we had a lot of pent-up demand, especially on the high-end.So, we are expecting services, demand to slow, in 2025 and goods actually to hold up relatively well. So, we really are focused on what's going on at the individual category level and the different types of consumers that we're looking at.Andrew Sheets: And as you think about some of those, you know, subcategories that you, you cover, maybe just a minute on a couple that you think will perform the best over this year and some that you think might face the biggest challenges.Jenna Gianelli: There are some that have been under relative pressure, in [20]23 and [20]24 where we might actually see some, you know, relief. Now, depending on the direction of rates in the housing market, we could see and expect to see an uptick in bigger ticket spending, durables, home related, that have been under, you know, some pressure.And also, you know, categories where, you know, the consumer, they're arguably discretionary. But maybe they pulled back because there was a big surge in demand just post-COVID. Pet in our universe is actually one example of those, where it's been a bit depressed and we actually expect to see, you know, some recovery into next year; also tied to housing right as new house formation starts.So, but again, a lot of that is predicated on the, you know, housing direction of rates and some of these other macro factors. I'd say, irrespective of the more macro influences, we do still expect that essentials – grocery, and certain categories like a beauty, pockets of apparel and brands, right? It really comes down to the brands, the brand heat, the brand relevance. If it's relevant to the consumer, they're going to spend on it. And so, that's where we really focus on the micro level; our picks of which brands are resonating, which categories are resonating. Which is, those are some of the, you know, the few that we're expecting, either a recovery in or still, you know, relative, outperformance.I'd say on the laggard side, which is probably the next piece of that question. I mean, look, there's still a lot of secular headwinds at play. And so, you know, from a department store perspective outside of event risk or idiosyncratic risk, we're still generally expecting department stores and kind of traditional specialty apparel, mall-based, with not a lot of channel diversification to still generally underperform and see similar trends they've seen the last few years.Andrew Sheets: So, Jenna, your sector is sitting at the center of this kind of very interesting economic debate over how healthy the consumer really is. And, you know, it's also sitting at the center of the policy debate because tariffs are a dynamic that could dramatically affect retailers depending on how large they are and how they're implemented.So how do you think about tariff risk? And can you give some sense of how you think about exposure of your sector to those dynamics?Jenna Gianelli: So, tariffs and policy risk and the uncertainty, is one of the big reasons. And when we think about, you know, retail – and particularly discretionary retail – why we're more cautious on the space into [20]25. Tariffs is the biggest piece of that. The degrees of exposure across our universe, varying degrees to a very wide range, right? So, we have some that are minimal, you know, let's say 5 per cent out of, you know, China sourcing some up to 70 per cent out of China sourcing. And then you layer in, well, what about goods from Canada and Mexico and what if there's a universal tariff?And so, the range of outcomes, is, you know, so significant. And so, what we are advocating to investors is that we go in with the expectation that tariffs are a – an uncertain, but certain threat, right? And not completely minimizing them within a portfolio but reducing the ones that do tend to have those higher, you know, exposures.I'd say the range from when we stress tested the earnings headwinds potential. I mean, it was anything from call it down 10 per cent EBITDA to down 60-70 per cent EBITDA in the most draconian scenarios. And so, I think taking a very prudent approach, assuming that there will be some level of tariffs phased in, you know; if we look back to the 2018 timeframe – different sets of goods, different times, different rates and go from there.Andrew Sheets: So, Jenna, we've talked about the economy. We've talked about some of the policy and tariff risk potentially impacting consumer and retail. You know, a third really key strategic theme for us is more corporate activity, more M&A. And again, I think this is where your sector is so interesting because you were already kind of in the center of some of these debates, last year with corporate activity.So, can you talk a little bit about how you see that? And again, you also have this interesting dynamic that some of the targets of M&A activity in your sector were some of the businesses that were kind of struggling, that were kind of seen as some of these laggards. And so how does that just represent different investor views of their prospects? How do you think people should think about that going forward?Jenna Gianelli: So, look, I think M&A could have positive risk for 2025 and also negative risk for some of our companies. And it really depends, at least from a credit perspective, how we think about some of their indentures and bond language and likelihood of pro forma capital structures.But I think without getting, you know, too deep into that, our expectation is that M&A will increase. We know that there is private equity capital on the sidelines to the extent that rates, even if we're in a little bit of a higher for longer, if the expectation is that we do on the year [20]25 in a slightly lower regime, at least we have some stability or visibility on the rate front. Which should, you know, spur more corporate activity.And then also, I think, look, just equity valuations, right? I mean, our universe, particularly when you think about – the size of the equity check that you need to come in at and the valuations are a bit cheaper because across our universe, we did see some underperformance last year.So, I think those are the kind of main drivers of why we'll see the activity pick up on the underperforming pieces of the space. There are still pockets of value that I think private equity sponsors are seeing. The ones that have come up most notably are real estate, right? And, you know, we saw…Andrew Sheets: Because these retailers often own a large…Jenna Gianelli: Many of the department stores own a significant amount of their real estate. 20, 20, 40, 50 per cent depending on your, you know, assumptions and how you value this real estate. But even with conservative LTV assumptions, there is lending capability here. And I think so that's, you know, one piece of it, those that have multi-banner assets that appeal to different consumer cohorts, that have maybe a solid private label portfolio.When you think about intellectual property, there are real assets, for certain retailers. And so, I think that's what, you know, private equity historically has seen as the play. Now, how that manifests throughout the space? You know, from an LBO perspective; I do still think that getting a really large LBO for a traditional, you know, mature type of retailer could be challenging, but there are creative ways to get these deals done.And again, I think because of what we have is some legacy indentures, traditional, more investment grade style capital structures, there might be flexibility to approach, you know, LBOs in a more creative way – without having to access the capital markets in such a big way as maybe you would traditionally think.Andrew Sheets: And so, this would be examples of private equity firms coming in, doing an LBO or a leveraged buyout where you can actually almost take advantage of the borrowing that company has already done in the market…Jenna Gianelli: Yes. Keep the debt outstanding.Andrew Sheets: ... at attractive levels.Jenna Gianelli: Exactly. Exactly.Andrew Sheets: So, Jenna, it's so great to talk to you. Well, it's always great to talk to you, but it's so great to talk to you now because I do think, you know, as we, we look into 2025, I think there's always a lot of focus on, you know, the direction of markets, you know. Will rates go up or down? Will equities go up or down? But I think what's so clear talking to you about your sector is that there are all these themes that are really about dispersion. That we see, you know, really different trends by the type of consumer segment and sub segment; that we see very different trends by how exposed companies are to tariffs, right? You mentioned anything from, your earnings could be down 10 per cent to 60 per cent. And, you know, very different dynamics, you know, winners and losers from M&A.And so, I do think it just highlights that this is a year where, from the strategy side, we think spreads are kind of more range bound. But there does seem to be a lot of dispersion within the sector. And there seems like, well, there's going to be plenty that's going to keep you busy.Jenna Gianelli: I hope so.Andrew Sheets: Great. Jenna, thanks for taking the time to talk.Jena Gianelli: Thank you, Andrew.Andrew Sheets: Great. And thanks for listening. If you enjoyed the show, leave us a review wherever you listen, and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Our Head of Corporate Credit Research Andrew Sheets argues that while investor hopes are running high, corporate confidence isn't.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley. Today I'm going to talk about optimism, how we measure it, whether it's overly excessive and what lies ahead. It's Friday January 24th at 2pm in London. A central tenet of investing, including credit investing, is to be on the lookout for excessive optimism. By definition, the highest prices in a market cycle will happen when people are the most convinced that only great things lie ahead. The lowest prices, when you'd love to buy, happen when investors have given up all hope. But identifying peak optimism, in real time, is tricky. It's tricky because there is no generally agreed definition; and it's tricky because, sometimes, things just are good. Investors have been excited about the US Technology sector for more than a decade now. And yet this sector has managed to deliver extraordinary profit growth over this time – and extraordinarily good returns. Yet this debate does feel relevant. The US equity market has soared over 50 per cent in the last two years. Equity valuations are historically high, both outright and relative to bonds. Credit risk premiums are near 20-year lows. Speculative investor activity is increasing. And so, have we finally hit peak optimism, a level from which we can go no further? Our answer, for better or worse, is no. While we think investor optimism is elevated, corporate optimism is not. And corporations are really important in this debate, enjoying enormous financial resources that can invest in the economy or other companies. While we do think corporate confidence will pick up, it is going to take some time. One of our favorite measures of corporate confidence is merger and acquisition activity. Buying another company is one of the riskiest things management can do, making it a great proxy for underlying corporate confidence. Volumes of this type of activity rose about 25 per cent last year, but they are still well below historical averages. And it would be really unusual for a major market cycle to end without this sort of activity being above-trend. Another metric is the riskiness of new borrowing. Taking on new debt is another measure of corporate confidence, as you generally do something like this when you feel good about the future, and your ability to pay that debt off. But for the last three years the volume of low-rated debt in the US market has actually been shrinking, while the issuance of the riskiest grades of corporate borrowing is also down significantly from the 2017-2022 average. Again, these are not the types of trends you'd expect with excessive corporate optimism. Uncertainties around tariffs, or the policies from the new US administration could still hold corporate confidence back. But the low starting point for corporate confidence, combined with what we expect to be a deregulatory push, mean we think it is more likely that corporate activity and aggressiveness have room to rise – and that this continues throughout 2025. Such an increase usually does present greater risk down the line; but for now, we think it is too early to position for those more negative consequences of increasing corporate aggression. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Government bond yields in the U.S. and Europe have risen sharply. Our Head of Corporate Credit Research Andrew Sheets explains why this surprising trend is not yet cause for concern.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley.With bond yields rising substantially over the last month, I'm going to discuss why we've been somewhat more relaxed about this development and what could change our mind. It's Friday January 17th at 2pm in London. We thought credit would have a good first half of this year as growth held up, inflation came down, and the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England all cut rates. That mix looked appealing, even if corporate activity increased and the range of longer-term economic outcomes widened with a new U.S. administration. We forecast spreads across regions to stay near cycle tights through the first half of this year, before a modest softening in the second half. Since publishing that outlook in November of last year, some of it still feels very much intact. Growth – especially in the U.S. – has been good. Core inflation in the U.S. and in Europe has continued to moderate. And the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank did lower interest rates back in December. But the move in government bond yields in the U.S. and Europe has been a surprise. They've risen sharply, meaning higher borrowing cost for governments, mortgages and companies. How much does our story change if yields are going to be higher for longer, and if the Fed is going to reduce interest rates less? One way to address this debate, which we're mindful is currently dominating financial market headlines, is what world do these new bond yields describe? Focusing on the U.S., we see the following pattern. There's been strong U.S. data, with Morgan Stanley tracking the U.S. economy to have grown to about 2.5 per cent in the fourth quarter of last year. Rates are rising, and they are rising faster than the expected inflation – a development that usually suggests more optimism on growth. We're seeing a larger rise in long-term interest rates relative to shorter-term interest rates, which often suggests more confidence that the economy will stay stronger for longer. And we've seen expectations of fewer cuts from the Federal Reserve; but, and importantly, still expectations that they are more likely to cut rather than hike rates over the next 12 months. Putting all of that together, we think it's a pattern consistent with a bond market that thinks the U.S. economy is strong and will remain somewhat stronger for longer, with that strength justifying less Fed help. That interpretation could be wrong, of course; but if it's right, it seems – in our view – fine for credit. What about the affordability of borrowing for companies at higher yields? Again, we're somewhat more sanguine. While yields have risen a lot recently, they are still similar to their 24 month average, which has given corporate bond issuers a lot of time to adjust. And U.S. and European companies are also carrying historically high amounts of cash on their balance sheet, improving their resilience. Finally, we think that higher yields could actually improve the supply-demand balance in corporate bond markets, as the roughly 5.5 per cent yield today on U.S. Investment Grade credit attracts buyers, while simultaneously making bond issuers a little bit more hesitant to borrow any more than they have to. We now prefer the longer-term part of the Investment Grade market, which we think could benefit most from these dynamics. If interest rates are going to stay higher for longer, it isn't a great story for everyone. We think some of the lowest-rated parts of the credit market, for example, CCC-rated issuers, are more vulnerable; and my colleagues in the U.S. continue to hold a cautious view on that segment from their year-ahead outlook. But overall, for corporate credit, we think that higher yields are manageable; and some relief this week on the back of better U.S. inflation data is a further support. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

In this Think Thursday episode, we're diving deep into the concept of rumination—the exhausting cycle of repetitive, negative thinking. Molly breaks down why our beautiful, brilliant human brains get stuck in this mental quicksand and how it can sabotage our progress, especially when trying to change habits like drinking. More importantly, you'll learn science-backed strategies to interrupt this cycle and start moving forward Key Topics Covered:What is Rumination? Understanding how repetitive negative thinking traps us in unproductive loops.Why Do We Ruminate? Exploring how our brains are wired for survival and how modern-day emotional threats trigger overthinking.The Impact of Rumination: How chronic rumination fuels anxiety, depression, and stress, keeping us stuck in habits that don't serve us.Five Science-Backed Strategies to Stop Rumination:Switch from "Why" to "How": Move from self-criticism to solution-focused thinking.Purposeful Distraction: Engage your mind and body in meaningful activities to break negative loops.Practice Self-Compassion: Speak to yourself kindly and interrupt self-criticism.Set a Problem-Solving Time Limit: Contain overthinking with intentional time boundaries.Name It to Tame It: Label your thoughts to create distance and diminish their power.Actionable Challenge:This week, when you catch yourself spiraling into overthinking, visualize a big red stop sign. Pause, breathe, and ask yourself: What kind of thought is this? Then label it without judgment. This simple act is the first step toward lasting change.Resources Mentioned:

Our Head of Corporate Credit Research, Andrew Sheets, offers up bull, bear and base cases for credit markets in the year ahead.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley. Today, I'm going to revisit our story for 2025 – and what could make things better or worse.It's Thursday, January 9th at 2pm in London. Based on the number of out-of-office replies, I have a sneaking suspicion that many investors took advantage [of] the timing of holidays this year for a well deserved break. With this week marking the first full week back, I thought it would be a good opportunity to refresh listeners on what we expect in 2025, and realistic scenarios where things are better or worse.Our base case is that credit holds up well this year, doing somewhat better in the first half of 2025 than the second. Credit likes moderation, and while we think the shift in U.S. policy leadership generally means less moderation, and a wider range of economic outcomes, this shift doesn't arrive immediately. On Morgan Stanley's forecasts, the bulk of the disruptive impact from any changes to tariffs or immigration policy hits in 2026.Meanwhile, Credit is entering 2025 with some pretty decent tailwinds. The economy is good. The all-in yield – the total yield – on US investment grade corporate bonds, at above 5.4 per cent, is the highest to start any year since January of 2009 – which we think helps demand. And while we think corporate confidence and aggression will rise this year, normally a bad thing for credit; this is going to be coming off of a low, conservative starting point. We think that credit spreads will be modestly tighter by mid-year relative to where they finished 2024, and then start to widen modestly in the second half of the year – as the market attempts to price that greater policy uncertainty in 2026. We think that issuers in the Financial and Utilities sectors outperform, and we think bonds between five- and ten-year maturity will do the best.The bear case is that we exit the current period of moderation more quickly. At one end, a deregulatory push by a new administration could usher in an even faster rise in corporate confidence and aggression, leading to more borrowing and riskier dealmaking. At the other extreme, the strong current state of the economy and jobs market could make further gains harder to come by. If the rise in unemployment that our economists expect in 2026 is larger or arrives earlier, credit could start to weaken well ahead of this.So, how could things be better – especially given the relatively low, tight starting point for credit spreads? Well, we'd argue that the current mix of data for credit is border-line ideal: reasonable growth, falling inflation, still-low levels of corporate aggressiveness, and still-high yields that are attracting buyers. Recall that the tightest levels of credit in the modern era, which are still tighter than today, occurred during a period with similar characteristics – the mid-1990s.When thinking about the mid-90s as a bull case, there's a further detail that's relevant and topical, especially this week. At that time, interest rates stayed somewhat high and the Fed only lowered short-term rates modestly because the economy held up. In short, in the best environment that we've seen for credit, less action by the Federal Reserve was fine – so long as the economic data was good.This is a bull-case, rather than our base case, because there are also a number of key differences with the mid 1990s, not the least being a much worse trajectory – today – for the US government's budget. But in a scenario where things change less, and the status quo lasts longer, it could come into play.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Our Head of Global Autos & Shared Mobility Adam Jonas discusses why the electric vehicle market may see a small reset in 2025, but ultimately accelerate under a Trump Administration.----- Transcript -----Adam Jonas: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Adam Jonas, Morgan Stanley's Head of Global Autos and Shared Mobility. Today, I'll be talking about the outlook for U.S. automakers and electric vehicles.It's Thursday, January 2nd at 1pm in New York.With Trump's inauguration just around the corner, we've seen a resurgence in many auto stocks tied to Internal Combustion Engines, also known as ICE. While questions swirl around the outlook for electric vehicles. In the near term we do think it'll be a bumpy ride for the U.S. EV market. But looking toward the second half of this year and beyond, we think there's hidden value in the EV sector for a number of reasons.First, let's look at the big picture. In our 2025 outlook for U.S. auto sales, we anticipate demand of 16.3 million units, a modest increase from the previous year, underpinned by projected U.S. GDP growth of around 1.9 percent and lower policy interest rates for auto loans. Looking specifically at EVs, we think the trajectory will be first a dip, then a rip scenario. That is, we're lowering our 2025 forecasts for U.S. EV penetration to 8.5 percent, down slightly from 9 percent previously. However, our long-term outlook remains unchanged, and we continue to forecast significant growth for EVs by 2040.Now for the big question. What does a Trump administration mean for EVs? Following the U.S. election, investors hopped on the ‘ICE is Nice' trade based on the expectation that a Trump administration will bring more relaxed U.S. emission standards, reduced EV incentives, and finally increased tariffs – which would drive up the costs of key EV components, such as batteries and semiconductors, predominantly manufactured in Asia.But the real story is more nuanced. You can't talk about EVs without talking about Elon Musk, who will be leading Trump's Department of Government Efficiency. And we struggle with the idea that the incoming Trump administration working in close partnership with Musk would structurally impede U.S. participation in two of the most important industrial transitions in over a century: electrification and embodied AI.If the U.S. wants to be a leader in autonomy, it must ultimately embrace EVs, which are the sockets of autonomous capability, and expand its EV infrastructure. How long will the U.S. cling to the soothing vibrations of its internal combustion fleet, while its rivals in China solidify their dominance in software defined electric mobility? Not for very long, in our opinion.While a rolling back of incentives under Trump may make 2025 a reset year for EV adoption, we view this mainly as a temporary action to help support a more capable and sustainable crop of domestic champions.That takes us to a resurgence in U.S. onshoring. Bringing manufacturing back to American soil has gained significant momentum and is another factor influencing the long-term outlook; not just for EV makers, but the entire supply chain. With the U.S. light vehicle market predominantly ICE-based at 92 percent of total sales, the real issue isn't the presence of gas powered combustion engines, but the glaring lack of advanced onshore EV production capabilities.Again, this puts the U.S. at a disadvantage compared to its global competitors and raises questions the Trump administration will need to address. Just what type of manufacturing does the U.S. want to prioritize? Are we looking to maintain the status quo with ICE, or are we aiming to be at the forefront of EV technology?No doubt, the U.S. auto industry stands at a crossroads between maintaining traditional technologies and embracing new, potentially disruptive advancements in EV and AV sectors. The decisions made in the next few years will likely dictate the pace and direction of the U.S.'s role in the global automotive landscape; and for investors, this brings new challenges – as well as opportunities.Thanks for listening. And if you enjoy the show, leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Our Head of Corporate Credit Research lists realistic scenarios for why credit could outperform expectations in 2025, despite some risks posed by policy changes from the incoming administration.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley. Today I'll be discussing realistic scenarios where things could be better than we expect.It's Friday December 20th at 2pm in London.Credit is an asset class that always faces more limited upside, and the low starting point for spreads as we enter 2025 further limits potential gains. Nevertheless, there are still a number of ways where this market could do better than expected, with spreads tighter than expected, into next year.An obvious place to start is U.S. policy. Morgan Stanley's public policy strategy team thinks the incoming administration will be a story of “fast announcement, slow implementation”, with the growth and inflation impact of tariffs and immigration falling more in 2026 (rather than say earlier). And so if one looks at Morgan Stanley's forecasts, our growth numbers for 2025 are good, our 2026 numbers are weaker.The bull case could be that we see more talk but less ultimate action. Scenarios where tariffs are more of a negotiating tool than a sustained policy would likely mean less change to the current (credit friendly) status quo, and also increase the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will be able to lower interest rates even as growth holds up. Rate cuts with good growth is a rare occurrence, but when you do get it, it can be extremely good. If one thinks of the mid-1990s, another time where we had this combination, credit spreads were even tighter than current levels. Another path to the bull case is better funding conditions in the market. Some loosening of bank capital requirements or stronger demand for collateralized loan obligations could both flow through to tighter spreads for the assets that these fund, especially things like leveraged loans. If we think back to periods where credit spreads were tighter than today, easier funding was often a part of the story.Now, a more aggressive phase of corporate activity could be a risk to credit, but M&A can also be a positive event, especially on a name by name basis. If merger and acquisition activity becomes a story of, say, larger companies buying smaller ones, that could mean that weaker, high yield credits get absorbed by larger, stronger, investment grade balance sheets. And so for those high yield bonds or loans, this can be an outstanding outcome. Another way things could be better than expected for credit is that growth in Europe and China is better than expected. In speaking with investors over the last few weeks, I think it's safe to say that expectations for both regions are pretty low. And so if things are better than these low expectations, spreads, especially in Europe, which are not as tight as those in the U.S., could go tighter.But the most powerful form of the credit bull case might be the simplest. Morgan Stanley expects the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, and the European Central Bank to all lower interest rates much more than markets expect next year, even as, for the most part, growth in 2025 holds up. Due in a large part to those expected rate cuts, we also think the yields fall more than expected. If that's right, credit could quietly have an outstanding year for total return, which is boosted as yields fall. Indeed, on our forecast, U.S. investment grade credit, a relatively sleepy asset class, would see a total return of roughly 10%, higher than our expected total return for the mighty S&P 500. Not all credit investors care about total return. But for those that do, that outcome could feel very bullish. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, leave us a review wherever you listen, and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

As the year comes to a close, taking time to reflect on 2024 can be a wonderful way to celebrate your successes and uncover inspiration for your goals in 2025.It's so easy to fall into the trap of focusing on what didn't go to plan or overlooking achievements, thanks to the negativity bias we all experience. Add to that the recency bias—where only the most recent events stick in our minds—and it's no wonder we often lose sight of the bigger picture.In this episode, I'll guide you through 10 powerful reflection questions from The Essential HR Planner to help you push past these biases, recognise all you've accomplished this year, and approach 2025 with confidence and clarity. And to show that I'm right there with you, I'll share my own answers to the questions too.Whether you're using The Essential HR Planner or simply jotting down notes as you listen, this episode of HR Coffee Time is your chance to pause, reflect, and start shaping the year ahead with purpose and positivity.Key Chapters[00:00] Introduction[03:10] Question 1: What did you achieve? - Small wins are just as noteworthy as big ones[09:06] Question 2: What did you do to help others?[11:35] Question 3: What are you proudest of from 2024?[13:02] Question 4: What did you do for your wellbeing during the past year?[15:50] Question 5: What did you learn during 2024?[21:35] Question 6: Which relationships did you develop and build?[23:22] Question 7: What are you grateful for?[24:22] Question 8: What did you find challenging this year?[27:10] Question 9: What insights do you have from reading through your answers to questions 1-8?[29:32] Question 10: How can these insights influence your goals for 2025?[32:51] ConclusionUseful LinksThe Essential HR Planner websiteConnect with Fay on LinkedInFay's website: Bright Sky Career CoachingFay's blog post: Reflecting on 2024 - looking back to look forwardFay's YouTube channelBook Recommendations(Disclosure: book links are affiliate links which means Fay will earn a small commission from Amazon if you make a purchase through them)Neuroscience for Learning and Development: How to Apply Neuroscience and Psychology for Improved Learning and Training, by Stella CollinsThink Like a Coach: Empower Your Team Through Everyday Conversations, by Jude SclaterChatter: The Voice in Our Head and How to Harness It, by Ethan KrossRate and Review the PodcastIf you found this episode of HR Coffee Time helpful, please rate and review it on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. This video shows you how to rate and review the podcast on Apple Podcasts (because it isn't very intuitive). If you're kind enough to leave a review, let Fay know so she can say thank you. You can always reach her at:

Our Head of Corporate Credit Research Andrew Sheets explains why corporate credit may struggle in 2025, including the risks of aggressive policy shifts in the U.S. along with political and structural challenges in Europe and Asia.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley. Today I'll be discussing realistic scenarios where things are worse than we expect. Next week, I'll cover what could be better.It's Wednesday, December 11th at 2pm in London.Morgan Stanley strategists and economists recently completed our forecasting process for the year ahead, and regular listeners will have now heard our expectations across a wide range of economies and markets. But I'd stress that these forecasts are a central case. The world is uncertain, with a probability distribution around all forecasts. So in the case of credit, what could go wrong?As a quick reminder, our baseline for credit is reasonably constructive. We think that low credit spreads can remain low, especially in the first half of next year – as policy change is slow to come through, economic data holds up, the Fed and European Central Bank ease rates more than expected, and still-high yields on corporate bonds attract buyers.So how does all of that go wrong? Well, there are a few specific, realistic factors that could lead us to something worse, i.e., our bear case.Let me start with US policy. Morgan Stanley's Public Policy team's view is that the incoming US administration will see fast announcement, but slow implementation on key issues like tariffs, fiscal policy, and immigration; and that that slower implementation of any of these policies will mean that change comes less quickly to the economy. But that change could happen faster, which would mean weaker growth and higher prices – if, for example, tariffs were to hit earlier and or in larger size. In the case of immigration, we are actually still forecasting positive net immigration over the next several years. But a larger change in policy would raise the odds of a more severe labor shortage.Even outside any specific change from the new US administration, there's also a risk that the US economy simply runs out of gas. The recovery since COVID has been extraordinary – one of the fastest on record, especially in the labor market. The risk is that companies have now done all the hiring they need to do, meaning a slower job market going forward. Even in their base-case, Morgan Stanley's economists see job market growth slowing, adding just 28,000 jobs/month in 2026. And to give you a sense of how low that number is, the average over the last 12 months was 190,000. And so, the bear case is that the labor market slows even more, more quickly, raising the risk of recession and dramatically lowering bond yields, both of which would reduce investor demand for corporate bonds.At the other extreme, credit could be challenged if conditions are too hot. Because current levels of corporate aggression are still quite low, we think they could rise in 2025 without creating a major problem. But if those corporate animal spirits arrive more rapidly, it could be a negative.Outside the US, we think the growth in Europe holds up as the European Central Bank cuts rates and Europeans end up saving at a slightly less elevated rate, and that that can keep growth near this year's levels, around 1 per cent. But you don't need me to tell you that Europe is riddled with challenges: from the political in France, to major structural questions around Germany's economy. Meanwhile, China, the world's second largest economy, continues to struggle with too little inflation. We think that growth in China muddles through, but a larger trade escalation could drive downside risk; one reason we prefer ex-China credit within Asia.Of course, maybe the most obvious risk to Credit is simply valuation. Credit spreads in the US are near 20-year lows, while the US Equity Price-to-Earnings Multiples for the equity market is near 20-year highs. In our view, valuation is a much better guide to returns over the next six years, rather than say the next six months. And that's one reason we are currently looking through this. But those valuations do leave a lot less margin for error.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Our Head of Corporate Credit Research Andrew Sheets recaps an exceptional year for credit — but explains why 2025 could be a more challenging year for the asset class.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley. Today I'll be discussing the Outlook for global Credit Markets in 2025.It's Monday, Dec 2nd at 2 pm in London.Morgan Stanley Strategists and Economists recently completed our forecasting process for the year ahead. For Credit, 2025 looks like a year of saying goodbye.2024 has been an exceptionally good environment for credit. As you've probably grown tired of hearing, credit is an asset class that loves moderation and hates extremes. And 2024 has been full of moderation. Moderate growth, moderating inflation and gradual rate cuts have defined the economic backdrop. Corporates have also been moderate, with stable balance sheets and still-low levels of corporates buying each other despite the strong stock market.The result has been an almost continuous narrowing of the extra premium that companies have to pay relative to governments, to some of the lowest, i.e. best spread levels in over 20 years.We think that changes. The U.S. election and resulting Republican sweep have now ushered in a much wider range of policy outcomes – from tariffs, to taxes, to immigration. These policies are in turn driving a much wider range of economic outcomes than we had previously, to scenarios that include everything from much greater corporate optimism and animal spirits, to much weaker growth and higher inflation, under certain scenarios of tariffs and immigration.Now, for some asset classes, this wider range of outcomes may simply be a wash, balancing out in the aggregate. But not for credit. This asset class doesn't stand to return more if corporate activity booms; but it stands to still lose if growth slows more than expected. And given the challenges that tariffs could pose to both Europe and Asia, we think these dynamics are global. We see spreads modestly wider next year, across global regions.But if 2025 is about saying goodbye to the credit-friendly moderation of 2024, we'd stress this is a long goodbye. A key element of our economic forecasts is that even if major changes are coming to tariffs or taxes or immigration policy, that won't arrive immediately. Today's strong, credit-friendly economy should persist – well into next year. Indeed, for most of the first half of 2025, Morgan Stanley's forecasts look much like today: moderate growth, falling inflation, and falling central bank rates.In short, when thinking about the year ahead, 2025 may be a turning point for credit – but one that doesn't arrive immediately. Our best estimate is that we continue to see quite strong and supportive conditions well into the first half of the year, while the second half becomes much more challenging. We think leveraged loans offer the strongest risk-adjusted returns in Corporate Credit, while Agency Mortgages offer an attractive alternative to corporates for those looking for high quality spread.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

December 1, 2024 - Sunday PM Sermon   Living by Faith like Habakkuk - (Habakkuk 2:2-4) (Hiram Kemp) Living by Faith When You're Mad at God - (Habakkuk 1:2-4) Living by Faith When You Don't Like the Answers God Gives - (Habakkuk 1:12-2:4) Living by Faith Even If the Worst Happens - (Habakkuk 3:17-19) What The New Testament Teaches About Habakkuk 2:4 (Neal Pollard Romans Stresses "The Just" (1:14-17) "Righteousness" and "Righteous" (17) Hebrews Stresses "Shall Live" - (10:35-39) What Was at Stake - (2:1; 3:12; etc.)? How Can They Spiritually Survive? Galatians Stresses "By Faith" - (3:10-14) Faith Must Be in Our Head, Heart, and Hands Duration 38:26

Humans are noisy. The National Park Service estimates that all of our whirring, grinding, and revving machines are doubling or even tripling global noise pollution every 30 years. A lot of that noise is negatively affecting wildlife and human health. Maybe that's why we're so consumed with managing our sonic environments, with noise-cancelling headphones and white noise machines — and sometimes, we get into spats with our neighbors, as one of our guests did…So for this episode, producer Jeongyoon Han takes us on an exploration of three sonic landscapes: noise, silence, and something in between. Featuring Rachel Buxton, Jim Connell, Stan Ellis, Mercede Erfanian, Nora Ma, and Rob Steadman.This episode originally aired  in July, 2023.SUPPORTOutside/In is made possible with listener support. Click here to become a sustaining member. Subscribe to our newsletter to get occasional emails about new show swag, call-outs for listener submissions, and other announcements.Follow Outside/In on Instagram or X, or join our private discussion group on Facebook. LINKSBehavioral ecologist Miya Warrington and her colleagues found that Savannah sparrows changed the tune of their love songs as a result of noisy oil fields in Alberta, Canada (The New York Times)Bats have changed their day-to-day habits because of traffic noise, according to research conducted in the U.K.Natural sounds are proven to improve health, lower stress, and have positive effects on humans. Rachel Buxton and her colleagues wrote about that in their study from 2021.Erica Walker's organization, the Community Noise Lab, monitors noise levels in Boston, Providence, and Jackson, Mississippi. You can read more about her work in this article from Harvard Magazine.Are you interested in going to a Quiet Parks International-designated quiet park? The organization has a list of spaces across the world that they've certified. Here's a radio story from NPR that serves as an homage to John Cage's 4'33”. If you were ever curious about why bird songs are good for you… This article from the Washington Post should be on the top of your reading list!This New Yorker piece from 2019 outlines how noise pollution might be the next public health crisis. Since that article, there's been even more research showing that noise can take years off of our lives. So, you've heard lots of sounds in this episode. But do you want to see what sounds look like? Click here — and this is not clickbait!Ethan Kross, who is a psychologist and neuroscientist, wrote a whole book about noise — the noise in your head, to be precise. It's called Chatter: The Voice in Our Head, Why It Matters, and How to Harness It.Mercede Erfanian's research into misophonia and soundscapes is fascinating. You can hear her speak on the subject of different kinds of sounds in a show aired from 1A, or watch her presentation on the effects that soundscapes have on humans. CREDITSHost: Nate HegyiReported and produced by Jeongyoon HanMixed by Jeongyoon Han and Taylor QuimbyEdited by Taylor Quimby, with help from Nate Hegyi, Jessica Hunt, and Felix PoonExecutive producer: Rebecca LavoieSpecial thanks toMusic by Blue Dot Sessions, Edvard Grieg, and Mike Franklyn.Our theme music is by Breakmaster Cylinder.Outside/In is a production of New Hampshire Public Radio.If you've got a question for the Outside/Inbox hotline, give us a call! We're always looking for rabbit holes to dive down into. Leave us a voicemail at: 1-844-GO-OTTER (844-466-8837). Don't forget to leave a number so we can call you back.

Our Head of Corporate Credit Research Andrew Sheets discusses why uncertainty around the election's outcome could be detrimental for credit investors.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley. Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives, today I'll discuss the US Election, and how it might matter for Credit. It's Friday, October 18th, at 4pm in London. Morgan Stanley's positive view on credit this year has been anchored on a simplistic thesis. Credit is an asset class that hates extremes, as it faces losses if a company fails, but doesn't earn extra if that company's profits double or even triple. Credit, to an unusual degree, is an asset class that loves moderation. And here at Morgan Stanley, we've been forecasting … a lot of moderation. Moderate growth for the U.S. and Europe. Moderating inflation, that continues to fall into next year. And a moderation of central bank interest rates, rather than the type of sharp declines that you tend to see around recessions; as we think Fed funds will settle in a little bit below three-and-a-half per cent by the middle of next year. This moderate economy, coupled with moderate levels of corporate aggressiveness should be music to a credit investor's ears, and support richer-than-average valuations, in our view. So how does the upcoming U.S. election on November 5th fit into this otherwise benign picture? Who runs a government matters, especially when it's the government of the world's largest and strongest economy. This election is also notable for the differences between the two candidates, who are presenting sharply contrasting visions of economic, domestic and foreign policy. Against this backdrop, we suggest credit investors try to keep a few things top of mind. First, and most broadly, the idea that “credit likes moderation” remains our north star. Outcomes that could drive larger changes of economic policy, or larger uncertainty in policy in general, are probably going to be a larger risk for credit.Second, of all the various policies under discussion, tariffs feel especially important as they can be largely implemented without congressional approval, and are thus far easier to see go into effect. Tariff proposals could create significant dispersion at the single-name level in credit, and pose significant risks for sectors like retail, which import a large share of their ultimate goods. For time-limited investors, tariffs are the policy area where we'd spend the most time – and where much of our Credit Research around the election has been focused. Third, it's notable that as we head into this election, expected volatility, in equities or credit, is elevated even as the stock market sits near all time highs, and credit spreads are historically low. So this begs the question. Do these options markets know something that the rest of the market does not? We're skeptical. Historically, when you've seen high volatility alongside all-time-highs in the market – and it's not all that common – it's tended to be a positive short-term indicator, rather than a negative one. And one way we could perhaps explain this is that it suggests that investors are still a little bit nervous, and not as positive as they otherwise could be. The U.S. election is close in time, uncertain in outcome, and has stakes for future policy. That high implied volatility we see at the moment, in our view, could reflect known unknowns, rather than some hidden factor. Tariff policy, being largely independent of congress and thus easier to implement, is probably the most relevant for single-name credit exposures. And most broadly, credit likes moderation, and should do best in outcomes that are more likely to achieve that. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Our Head of Corporate Credit Research and Global Chief Economist explain why they're watching the consumer savings rate, tariffs and capital expenditures.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley.Seth Carpenter: And I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist.Andrew Sheets: And today on this special episode of the podcast, we'll be discussing what could cause our optimistic view on the economy and credit to go wrong.Andrew Sheets: It's Friday, Oct 11th at 4pm in London.Seth Carpenter: And as it turns out, I'm in London with Andrew.Andrew Sheets: So, Seth you and your global economics team have been pretty optimistic on the economy this year. And have been firmly in the soft-landing camp. And I think we've seen some oscillation in the market's view around the economy over the course of the year, but more recently, we've started to see some better data and increasing confidence in that view.So, this is actually maybe the perfect opportunity to talk about – well, what could go wrong? And so, what are some of the factors that worry you most that could derail the story?Seth Carpenter: We have been pretty constructive all along the whole hiking cycle. In fact, we've been calling for a soft- landing. And if anything, where we were wrong with our forecast so far is that things have turned out even better than we dare hoped. But it's worth remembering part of the soft-landing call for us, especially for the US is that coming out of COVID; the economy rebounded employment rebounded, but not proportionally. And so, for a long time, up until basically now, US firms had been operating shorthanded. And so, we were pretty optimistic that even if there was something that caused a slowdown, you were not going to see a wave of layoffs. And that's usually what contributes to a recession. A slowdown, then people get laid off, laid off people spend less, the economy slows down more, and it snowballs.So, I have to say, there is gotta be just a little bit more risk because businesses basically backfilled most of their vacancies. And so, if we do get a big slowdown for some reason, maybe there's more risk than there was, say, a year ago. So, what could that something be is a real question. I think the first one is just -- there's just uncertainty.And maybe, just maybe, the restraint that monetary policy has imparted -- takes a little bit longer than we realized. It's a little bit bigger than we realized, and things are slowing down. We just haven't seen the full force of it, and we just slowed down a lot more.Not a whole lot I can do about that. I feel pretty good. Spending data is good. The last jobs report was good. So, I see that as a risk that just hangs over my head, like the sword of Damocles, at all times.Andrew Sheets: And, Seth, another thing I want to talk to you about is this analysis of the economy that we do with the data that's available. And yet we recently got some pretty major revisions to the US economic picture that have changed, you know, kind of our basic understanding of what the savings rate was, you know, what some of these indicators are.How have those revisions changed what you think the picture is?Seth Carpenter: So those benchmark revisions were important. But I will say it's not as though it was just a wholesale change in what we thought we understood. Instead, the key change that happened is we had information on GDP -- gross domestic product -- which comes from a lot of spending data. There's another bit of data that's gross domestic income that in some idealized economic model version of the world, those two things are the same -- but they had been really different. And the measured income had been much lower than the measured gross domestic product, the spending data. And so, it looked like the saving rate was very, very low.But it also raised a bit of a red flag, because if the savings rate is, is really low, and all of a sudden households go back to saving the normal amount, that necessarily means they'd slow their spending a lot, and that's what causes a downturn.So, it didn't change our view, baseline view, about where the economy was, but it helped resolve a sniggling, intellectual tension in the back of the head, and it did take away at least one of the downside risks, i.e. that the savings rate was overdone, and consumers might have to pull back.But I have to say, Andrew, another thing that could go wrong, could come from policy decisions that we don't know the answer to just yet. Let you in on a little secret. Don't tell anybody I told you this; but later this year, in fact, next month, there's an election in the United States.Andrew Sheets: Oh my goodness.Seth Carpenter: One of the policies that we have tried to model is tariffs. Tariffs are a tax. And so, the normal way I think a lot of people think about what tariffs might do is if you put a tax on consumer goods coming into the country, it could make them more expensive, could make people buy less, and so you'd get a little bit less activity, a little bit higher prices.In addition to consumer goods, though, we also import a lot of intermediate goods for production, so physical goods that are used in manufacturing in the United States to produce a final output. And so, if you're putting a tax on that, you'll get less manufacturing in the United States.We also import capital goods. So, things that go into business CapEx spending in the United States. And if you put a tax on that, well, businesses will do less investment spending. So, there's a disruption to actual US production, not just US consumption that goes on. And we actually think that could be material. And we've tried to model some of the policy proposals that are out there. 60 per cent tariff on China, 10 per cent tariff on the rest of the world.None of these answers are going to be exact, none of these are going to be precise, but you get something on the order of an extra nine-tenths of a percentage point of inflation, so a pretty big reversion in inflation. But maybe closing in on one and a half percentage points of a drag on GDP – if they were all implemented at the same time in full force.So that's another place where I think we could be wrong. It could be a big hit to the economy; but that's one place where there's just lots of uncertainty, so we have to flag it as a risk to our clients. But it's not in our baseline view.Seth Carpenter: But I have to say, you've been forcing me to question my optimism, which is entirely unfair. You, sir, have been pretty bullish on the credit market. Credit spreads are, dare I say it, really tight by historical standards.And yet, that doesn't cause you to want to call for mortgage spreads to widen appreciably. It doesn't call for you to want to go really short on credit. Why are you so optimistic? Isn't there really only one direction to go?Andrew Sheets: So, there are kind of a few factors the way that we're thinking about that. So, one is we do think that the fundamental backdrop, the economic forecast that you and your team have laid out are better than average for credit -- are almost kind of ideal for what a credit investor would like.Credit likes moderation. We're forecasting a lot of moderation. And, also kind of the supply and demand dynamics of the market. What we call the technicals are better than average. There's a lot of demand for bonds. And companies, while they're getting a little bit more optimistic, and a little bit more aggressive, they're not borrowing in the kind of hand over fist type of way that usually causes more problems. And so, you should have richer than average valuations. Now, in terms of, I think, what disrupts that story, it could be, well, what if the technicals or the fundamentals are no longer good? And, you know, I think you've highlighted some scenarios where the economic forecasts could change. And if those forecasts do change, we're probably going to need to think about changing our view. And that's also true bottom up. I think if we started to see Corporates get a lot more optimistic, a lot more aggressive. You know, hubris is often the enemy of the bond investor, the credit investor. I don't think we're there yet, but I think if we started to see that, that could present a larger problem. And both, you know, fundamentally it causes companies to take on more debt, but also kind of technically, because it means a lot more supply relative to demand.Seth Carpenter: I see. I see. But I wonder, you said, if our outlook, sort of, doesn't materialize, that's a clear path to a worse outcome for your market. And I think that makes sense.But the market hasn't always agreed with us. If we think back not that long ago to August, the market had real turmoil going on because we got a very weak Non Farm Payrolls print in the United States. And people started asking again. ‘Are you sure, Seth? Doesn't this mean we're heading for a recession?' And asset markets responded. What happened to credit markets then, and what does it tell you about how credit markets might evolve going forward, even if, at the end of the day, we're still right?Andrew Sheets: Well, so I think there have been some good indications that there were parts of the market where maybe investors were pretty vulnerably positioned. Where there was more leverage, more kind of aggressiveness in how investors were leaning, and the fact that credit, yes, credit weakened, but it didn't weaken nearly as much -- I think does suggest that investors are going to this market eyes wide open. They're aware that spreads are tight. So, I think that's important.The other I think really fundamental tension that I think credit investors are dealing with -- but also I think equity investors are -- is there are certain indicators that suggest a recession is more likely than normal. Things like the yield curve being inverted or purchasing manager indices, these PMIs being below 50.But that also doesn't mean that a recession is assured by any means. And so, I do think what can challenge the market is a starting point where people see indicators that they think mean a recession is more likely, some set of weak data that would seem to confirm that thesis, and a feeling that, well, the writing's on the wall.But I think it's also meant, and I think we've seen this since September, that this is a real, in very simple terms, kind of good is good market. You know, I got asked a lot in the aftermath of some of the September numbers, internally at Morgan Stanley, 'Is it, is it too good? Was the jobs number too good for credit?'And, and my view is, because I think the market is so firmly shifted to ‘we're worried about growth,' that it's going to take a lot more good data for that fear to really recede in the market to worry about something else.Seth Carpenter: Yeah, it's funny. Some people just won't take yes for an answer. Alright, let me, let me end up with one more question for you.So when we think about the cycle, I hear as I'm sure you do from lots of clients -- aren't we, late cycle, aren't things coming to an end? Have we ever seen a cycle before where the Fed hiked this much and it didn't end in tears? And the answer is actually yes. And so, I have often been pointing people to the 1990s.1994, there was a pretty substantial rate hiking cycle that doesn't look that different from what we just lived through. The Fed stopped hiking, held out at the peak for a while, and then the economy wobbled a little bit. It did slow down, and they cut rates. And some of the wobbles, for a while at least, looked pretty serious. The Fed, as it turns out, only cut 75 basis points and then held rates steady. The economy stabilized and we had another half decade of expansion.So, I'm not saying history is going to repeat itself exactly. But I think it should be, at least from my perspective, a good example for people to have another cycle to look at where things might turn out well with the soft landing.Looking back to that period, what happened in credit markets?Andrew Sheets: So, that mid-90s soft-landing was in the modern history of credit -- call it the last 40 years -- the tightest credit spreads have ever been. That was in 1997. And they were still kind of materially tighter from today's levels.So we do have historical evidence that it can mean the market can trade tighter than here. It's also really fascinating because the 1990s were kind of two bull markets. There was a first stage that, that stage you were suggesting where, you know, the Fed started cutting; but the market wasn't really sure if it was going to stick that landing, if the economy was going to be okay. And so, you saw this period where, as the data did turn out to be okay, credit went tighter, equities went up, the two markets moved in the same direction.But then it shifted. Then, as the cycle had been extending for a while, kind of optimism returned, and even too much optimism maybe returned, and so from '97, mid-97 onwards, equities kept going up, the stock market kept rallying, credit spreads went wider, expected volatility went higher. And so, you saw that relationship diverge.And so, I do think that if we do get the '90s, if we're that lucky, and hopefully we do get that sort of scenario, it was good in a lot of ways. But I think we need to be on the watch for those two stages. We still think we're in stage one. We still think they're that stage that's more benign, but eventually benign conditions can lead to more aggressiveness.Seth Carpenter: I think that's really fair. So, we started off talking about optimism and I would like to keep it that you pointed out that the '90s required a bit of good luck and I would wholeheartedly agree with that.So, I still remain constructive, but I don't remain naive. I think there are ways for things to go wrong. And there is a ton of uncertainty ahead, so it might be a rocky ride. It's always great to get to talk to you, Andrew.Andrew Sheets: Great to talk to you as well, Seth.And thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, leave us a review wherever you listen, and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Our Head of Corporate Credit Research looks at the Fed's approach to rate cuts, seasonal trends and the US election to explain why the next month represents a crucial window for credit's future. ----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley. Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives, today I'll discuss why the next month is a critical window for credit.It's Thursday, September 12th at 9am in New York. We've liked corporate credit as an asset class this year and think the outlook over the next 6-12 months remains promising. At a high level, credit likes moderation, and that continues to be exactly what Morgan Stanley's economists are forecasting; with moderate growth, moderate inflation, and moderating policy in the US and Europe. Meanwhile, at the ground level, corporate balance sheets are in good shape, and demand for fixed income remains strong, dynamics that we think are unlikely to shift quickly. But this good credit story is now facing a critical window. As we've discussed recently on this program, the Fed has taken a risk with monetary policy, continuing to keep interest rates elevated despite increasing indications that they should be lower. U.S. inflation has been coming down rapidly, to the point where the market now thinks the rate of inflation over the next two years will be below what the Fed is targeting. The labor market is slowing, and government bond markets are now assuming that the Fed will have to make much more significant adjustments to policy. And so, this becomes a race. If the economic data can hold up for the next few months, while the Fed does make those first gradual rate cuts, it will help reassure markets that monetary policy is reasonable and in-line with the underlying economy. But if the data weakens more now, the market is vulnerable. Monetary policy works with a lag, meaning rate cuts are not going to help anytime soon. And so, it becomes easier for the market to worry that growth is slowing too much, and that the cavalry of rate cuts will be too late to arrive. The second immediate challenge is so-called seasonality. Over almost a century, September has seen significantly weaker performance relative to any other month. Seasonality always has an element of mysticism to it, but in terms of specific reasons why markets tend to struggle around this time of year, we'd point to two factors. First, after a summer lull, you tend to see a lot of issuance, including corporate bonds issuance. And for Equities, September often sees more negative earnings revisions, as companies aim to bring full-year estimates in line with reality. Lots of supply and weaker earnings revisions are often a tough combination. A final element of this critical window is the approaching US election. This appears to be an extremely close race between candidates with very different policy priorities. If investors get more nervous that monetary policy is mis-calibrated, or seasonality is unhelpful, the approaching election provides yet another reason for investors to hold back. All of this is why we think the next month is a critical window for credit, and why we'd exercise a little bit more caution than we have so far this year. But we also think any weakness is going to be temporary. By early November, the US election will be over, and we think growth will be holding up, inflation will keep coming down, and interest rate cuts will be well underway. And while September is historically a bad month for stocks and credit, late-October onward is a different and much better story. Any near-term softness could still give way to a stronger finish to the year. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Our Head of Corporate Credit Research, Andrew Sheets, expects a sticky but shallow cycle for defaults on loans, with solid quality overall in high-grade credit.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley. Along with my colleagues, bringing you a variety of perspectives, today I'll discuss some longer-term thoughts on the credit market and the economic cycle.It's Friday, September 6th at 2pm in London.Concerns around US growth have risen, an issue that will probably persist even after today's US Payrolls report came roughly inline with expectations. At Morgan Stanley, we continue to expect moderate slowing in growth, not a slump. By the middle of next year, our economists see growth slowing to a still respectable 2% growth rate, and a total of seven rate cuts.While growth is set to slow, we think corporate balance sheet metrics are unusually good in the face of this slowing. Indeed, the credit quality of the US investment grade and BB credit markets, which represent the vast majority of corporate credit outstanding, have actually improved since the Fed started hiking rates.Now, looking ahead, there's understandable concern that these currently good credit metrics won't be sustainable as companies will have to refinance the very cheap borrowing that they received immediately after COVID, with the more expensive costs of today's currently higher yields. But we actually think balance sheets will be reasonably robust in light of this reset, and so their ultimate rate sensitivity could be relatively low.One reason is that a wave of refinancing means companies have already tackled a significant portion of their upcoming debt, reducing the so-called rollover or refinancing risk. Interest coverage for floating rate borrowers has stabilized and should actually improve as the Fed starts to lower rates.The debt service costs for higher rated companies will increase as cheaper debt matures and has to be replaced with more expensive borrowing; but we stressed this is a pretty slow process given the long-term nature of a lot of this borrowing. And so, overall, we think the headwinds from higher debt costs are going to be manageable, with the problems largely confined to a smaller cohort of the lowest quality issuers.We think all of that will drive a so-called sticky but shallow default cycle, with defaults driven by higher borrowing costs at select issuers rather than a single problem sector or particularly poor corporate earnings. And there are also some important offsets. Morgan Stanley's forecast suggests that the Fed will be cutting rates, which will reduce overall borrowing costs over the medium term. And another notable theme over the last two years is that more defaults have been becoming so-called restructurings rather than bankruptcies. These restructurings are more likely to leave a company operating -- just under new ownership -- and create less negative feedback into the real economy.Now, against all this, we're mindful that credit spreads are tight, i.e. lower than average. But importantly, we don't think this reflects some sort of euphoria from either the lenders or the borrowers.All-in borrowing costs for corporates remain high, and that's made corporates less likely to be aggressive or increase their leverage. Indeed, since COVID, the overall high yield bond and loan markets have actually shrunk. Leverage buyout activity has been muted and corporate leverage has gone sideways.These are not the types of things you see when corporates are being particularly aggressive and credit unfriendly. Credit markets love moderation and that's very much what Morgan Stanley's economic forecasts over the medium term expect. Spreads may be tight. But we think they're currently supported by strong fundamentals, modest supply, and improving technicals.Today's roughly inline payroll number won't resolve the uncertainty around growth, but longer term, we think the picture remains encouraging.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen, and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Despite a flurry of election news, little may have changed for investors weighing the possible outcomes. Our Head of Fixed Income and Thematic Research, Michael Zezas, explains why this is the case as we move closer to Election Day. ----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Morgan Stanley's Global Head of Fixed Income and Thematic Research. Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives, today I'll be talking about recent developments in the US election.It's Wednesday, September 4th at 10:30am in New York. While news headlines might make it seem a lot has changed in recent weeks around the US election, in our view not much has changed at all. And that's important for investors to understand as they navigate markets between now and Election Day on November 5th. Let me explain. In recent weeks, we've had the Democratic convention, fresh polls, and a third party candidate withdraw from the race and endorse former President Trump. But all appear to reflect only marginal impacts on the probabilities of different electoral outcomes. Take the withdrawal of independent candidate Robert F Kennedy Junior, which does not appear to be a game changer. Historical precedent is that third party candidates rarely have a path to even winning one state's electoral votes. Further, in polls voters tend to overstate their willingness to support third parties ahead of election day. And it's also not clear that Kennedy withdrawing clearly benefits Democrats or Republicans. Kennedy originally ran for President as a Democrat, and so was thought to be pulling from likely Democratic voters. However, polls suggest his supporter's next most likely choice was nearly split between Trump and Harris. So while it's possible that Kennedy's decision to endorse Trump upon dropping out could be meaningful, given how close the race is, we're unlikely to be able to observe that potentially marginal but meaningful effect until after the election has passed. And such effects could easily be offset by small shifts favoring Democrats, who are showing some polling resiliency in states where just a couple months ago the election was not assumed by experts to be close. For example, Cook Political Report, a site providing non-partisan election analysis, shifted its assessment of the Presidential election outcome in North Carolina from “lean Republican” to a “toss-up.” Similarly, in recent weeks the site has shifted states like Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia into that same category from “lean Republican.” These shifts are mirrored in several other polls released last week showing a close race in the battleground states. So for all the changes and developments in the last week, we think we're left with a Presidential race that's difficult to view as anything other than a tossup. To borrow a term from the world of sport – it's a game of inches. Small improvements for either side can be decisive, but as observers we may not be able to see them ahead of time. And so that brings us back to our guidance for investors navigating the run up to the election. Let the democratic process unfold and don't make any major portfolio shifts until more is known about the outcome. That means the economic cycle will drive markets more than the election cycle in the next couple months. In our view, that favors bonds over stocks. Lower inflation enables easier monetary policy and lower interest rates, good for bond prices; but growth concerns should weigh on equities. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the podcast, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Original Release Date August 8, 2024: Our Head of Europe Sustainability Research discusses how rising longevity is revolutionizing our fundamental approach from reactive to proactive treatment.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Canfield, Morgan Stanley's European Head of Sustainability Research. Along with my colleagues, we're bringing you a variety of perspectives; and today we're focusing on a topic that affects everyone – how much does poor health cost us? And how are ageing populations and longer life expectancy driving a fundamental shift in healthcare? It's Thursday, August the 8th, at 4pm in London. As populations age across the developed world, health systems need to help people live both longer and healthier. The current system is typically built around to focus on acute conditions and it's more reactive; so it introduces clinical care or drugs to respond to a condition after it's already arisen, rather than keeping people healthy in the first instance. So increasingly, with the burden of chronic disease becoming by far the greatest health and economic challenge we face, we need to change the structure of the healthcare system. Essentially, the key question is how much is poor health amongst the ageing population really costing society? To get a true sense of that, we need to keep in mind that workers over 50 already earn one out of every three dollars across the G20 regions. By 2035, they're projected to generate nearly 40 per cent of all household income. So with that in mind, preventable conditions amongst those people aged 50-64 at the moment, are already costing G20 economies over $1 trillion annually in productivity loss. And there's one more key number: 19 per cent. That's how much age-diverse workforces can raise GDP per capita over the next thirty years, according to estimates from the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, or OECD. So clearly, keeping workers healthier for longer underpins a more productive, more efficient, and a profitable global economy. So it's clear that [if] the current healthcare system were to shift from sick from care to prevention, the global gains would be substantial.The BioPharma sector is already contributing some targeted novel treatments in areas like smart chemotherapy and in CRISPR – which is a technology that allows for selective DNA modification. While we can credit BioPharma and MedTech for really powerful innovations in diagnostics, in AI deployment for areas like data science and material science, and in sophisticated telemedicine – all these breakthroughs together give a more personalized, targeted health system; which is a big step in the right direction, but honestly they alone can't solve this much broader longevity challenge we face. Focus on health and prevention, ultimately, could address those underlying causes of ill-health, so that problems don't arise even in the first instance. Governments around the world are obviously realizing the value of preventive care over sick care. And as a strategy, disease prevention fundamentally aims to promote wellness across the board, whether that's in things like mental state, nutrition or even in things like sleep and stress. While it might be easy to kind of conflate that with wellness trends – things like green smoothies or meditation – the underlying benefits of boosting health at the cellular level have much broader and deeper implications. Things like Type 2 diabetes and heart disease, supporting better health across populations can significantly reduce the incidence of a wide range of chronic conditions. It can lower the burden on health systems overall, and actually increase healthy lifespan at the end of the day. BioPharma advances are significant, but addressing longevity will require a much broader alignment across a myriad of elements; everything really from the food system to sanitation to training healthcare professionals. And of course, all of that will require consistent policy support. Regulators and policymakers are paying very close attention to their ageing population – and so are we. We'll continue to bring you updates on this topic, which is so important to all of us.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please do leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Original release date July 23, 2024: Our Head of Global Autos & Shared Mobility discusses what makes humanoid robots a pivotal trend with implications for the global economy.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Adam Jonas, Morgan Stanley's Head of Global Autos & Shared Mobility. Today I'll be talking about an unusual but hotly debated topic: humanoid robots. It's Tuesday, July 23rd, at 10am in New York.We've seen robots on factory floors, in displays at airports and at trade shows – doing work, performing tasks, even smiling. But over the last eighteen months, we seem to have hit a major inflection point. What's changed? Large Language Models and Generative AI. The current AI movement is drawing comparisons to the dawn of the Internet. It's begging big, existential questions about the future of the human species and consciousness itself. But let's look at this in more practical terms and consider why robots are taking on a human shape. The simplest answer is that we live in a world built for humans. And we're getting to the point where – thanks to GenAI – robots are learning through observation. Not just through rudimentary instruction and rules based heuristic models. GenAI means robots can observe humans in action doing boring, dangerous and repetitive tasks in warehouses, in restaurants or in factories. And in order for these robots to learn and function most effectively, their design needs to be anthropomorphic. Another reason we're bullish on humanoid robots is because developers can have these robots experiment and learn from both simulation and physically in areas where they're not a serious threat to other humans. You see, many of the enabling technologies driving humanoid robots have come from developments in autonomous cars. The problem with autonomous cars is that you can't train them on public roads without directly involving innocent civilians – pedestrians, children and cyclists -- into that experiment. Add to all of this the issue of critical labor shortages and challenging demographic trends. The global labor total addressable market is around $30 trillion (USD) or about one-third of global GDP. We've built a proprietary US total addressable market model examining labor dynamics and humanoid optionality across 831 job classifications, working with our economics team; and built a comprehensive survey across 40 sectors to understand labor intensity and humanoid ability of the workforce over time. In the United States, we forecast 40,000 humanoid units by 2030, 8 million by 2040 and 63 million by 2050 – equivalent to around $3 trillion (USD) of salary equivalent. But as early as 2028 we think you're going to see significant adoption beginning in industries like manufacturing, production, warehousing, and logistics, installation, healthcare and food prep. Then in the 2030s, you're going to start adding more in healthcare, recreational and transportation. And then after 2040, you may see the adoption of humanoid robots go vertical. Now you might say – that's 15 years from now. But just like autonomous car – the end state might be 20 years away, but the capital formation is happening right now. And investors should pay close attention because we think the technological advances will only accelerate from here. Thanks for listening. And if you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Our Head of Corporate Credit Research explains how corporate balance sheets have remained resilient post-COVID, and why that could continue in the face of a potential economic slowdown.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley. Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives, today I'll discuss how corporate balance sheets are in a better place to handle a potential growth slowdown. It's Friday, August 16th at 2pm in London. Much of the volatility over the last several weeks has been centered around fears that excessively high interest rates from the Federal Reserve will now cause the US economy to slow too quickly. Morgan Stanley's economists are more optimistic and believe that the data will hold up, leading the Fed to start a gradual rate cutting cycle in September, rather than a more radical course-correction. Against this backdrop, good economic data is good for markets and vice versa. But even though we remain optimistic at Morgan Stanley about a soft landing in the US economy, our economists still expect growth to slow. How prepared are corporate balance sheets for that slowing, and how worried should we be that this could lead to higher rates of default? A good place to start is thinking about how optimistic companies were heading into any slowdown of the economy. Overconfidence is often the enemy of credit investors, as rose-tinted glasses can lead companies to make too many unwise acquisitions or investments, funded with too much debt. Yet across a variety of metrics, this isn't what we see. Despite some of the lowest interest rates in human history, the level of debt to cash-flow for US and European companies has been pretty stable over the last five years. Excess capital held by banks remains historically high. And Merger and Acquisition activity, another key measure of corporate confidence, remains well below the long run trend – even after a pick up this year, as my colleague Ariana Salvatore discussed on this program earlier in the week. So, despite the strong recovery in the US economy and the stock market over the last four years, many corporate boardrooms have remained cautious, a good thing when considering their financial risk. Where Corporate debt did increase, it was often in places that we think could withstand it. Large-cap Technology and Pharmaceuticals issuers have taken out more debt over the last several years, relative to history, but it's been a pretty modest amount from a pretty low historical starting point. The Utility sector has also taken on more debt recently, but the stable nature of its business may make this easier to handle. While companies across the ratings spectrum generally didn't increase their leverage over the last several years, they did take advantage of refinancing the debt they already had at historically low rates. And this is important for thinking about the stress that higher interest rates could eventually produce. The average maturity in the US Investment Grade index is about 11 years, and that means that, for many companies, potentially less than one-tenth of their overall debt resets to the current interest rate every year. That means companies may still have many years of enjoying the low interest rates of the past, and that helps smooth the adjustment to higher interest rates in the future. The lack of corporate confidence since COVID means that corporate balance sheets are generally in a better place if the economy potentially slows. But while this is helpful overall, it's important to note that it doesn't apply in all cases. We still see plenty of dispersion between winners and losers, driving divergence under the hood of the credit market. Even if balance sheets are stronger overall, there is plenty of opportunity to pick your spots. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

In this episode of The 1000 Hours Outside Podcast, host Ginny Yurich sits down with Ethan Kross, author of the bestselling book Chatter: The Voice in Our Head, Why it Matters and How to Harness It. Together, they delve into the powerful role of our inner voice, offering practical tools like distant self-talk to manage negative thought loops. They explore the profound impact of nature on mental well-being, the nuances of social relationships and venting, and even touch on strategies for parents and individuals to navigate life's stressors. With additional insights from his upcoming book, Shift, Ethan Kross also provides listeners with actionable ways to manage their emotions and foster resilience. ** Purchase your copy of Chatter here. Pre-order Ethan's book Shift here. ** Download your free 1000 Hours Outside tracker here >> https://www.1000hoursoutside.com/trackers Find everything you need to kick off your 1000 Hours Outside Journey here >> https://www.1000hoursoutside.com/blog/allthethings Order of copy of Ginny's newest book, Until the Streetlights Come On here >> https://amzn.to/3RXjBlN Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Our Head of Europe Sustainability Research discusses how rising longevity is revolutionizing our fundamental approach from reactive to proactive treatment.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Canfield, Morgan Stanley's European Head of Sustainability Research. Along with my colleagues, we're bringing you a variety of perspectives; and today we're focusing on a topic that affects everyone – how much does poor health cost us? And how are ageing populations and longer life expectancy driving a fundamental shift in healthcare? It's Thursday, August the 8th, at 4pm in London. As populations age across the developed world, health systems need to help people live both longer and healthier. The current system is typically built around to focus on acute conditions and it's more reactive; so it introduces clinical care or drugs to respond to a condition after it's already arisen, rather than keeping people healthy in the first instance. So increasingly, with the burden of chronic disease becoming by far the greatest health and economic challenge we face, we need to change the structure of the healthcare system. Essentially, the key question is how much is poor health amongst the ageing population really costing society? To get a true sense of that, we need to keep in mind that workers over 50 already earn one out of every three dollars across the G20 regions. By 2035, they're projected to generate nearly 40 per cent of all household income. So with that in mind, preventable conditions amongst those people aged 50-64 at the moment, are already costing G20 economies over $1 trillion annually in productivity loss. And there's one more key number: 19 per cent. That's how much age-diverse workforces can raise GDP per capita over the next thirty years, according to estimates from the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, or OECD. So clearly, keeping workers healthier for longer underpins a more productive, more efficient, and a profitable global economy. So it's clear that [if] the current healthcare system were to shift from sick from care to prevention, the global gains would be substantial.The BioPharma sector is already contributing some targeted novel treatments in areas like smart chemotherapy and in CRISPR – which is a technology that allows for selective DNA modification. While we can credit BioPharma and MedTech for really powerful innovations in diagnostics, in AI deployment for areas like data science and material science, and in sophisticated telemedicine – all these breakthroughs together give a more personalized, targeted health system; which is a big step in the right direction, but honestly they alone can't solve this much broader longevity challenge we face. Focus on health and prevention, ultimately, could address those underlying causes of ill-health, so that problems don't arise even in the first instance. Governments around the world are obviously realizing the value of preventive care over sick care. And as a strategy, disease prevention fundamentally aims to promote wellness across the board, whether that's in things like mental state, nutrition or even in things like sleep and stress. While it might be easy to kind of conflate that with wellness trends – things like green smoothies or meditation – the underlying benefits of boosting health at the cellular level have much broader and deeper implications. Things like Type 2 diabetes and heart disease, supporting better health across populations can significantly reduce the incidence of a wide range of chronic conditions. It can lower the burden on health systems overall, and actually increase healthy lifespan at the end of the day. BioPharma advances are significant, but addressing longevity will require a much broader alignment across a myriad of elements; everything really from the food system to sanitation to training healthcare professionals. And of course, all of that will require consistent policy support. Regulators and policymakers are paying very close attention to their ageing population – and so are we. We'll continue to bring you updates on this topic, which is so important to all of us.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please do leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

After a dizzying week of economic and market activity, our Head of Corporate Credit Research breaks down the three top stories.----- Transcript -----It's been a whirlwind week of economic activity in the markets as we enter the dog days of summer. Our Head of Corporate Credits Research breaks down three top stories.Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley. Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives, today I'll be discussing what we've taken away from this eventful week.It's Friday, August 2nd at 2pm in London.For all its sophistication, financial activity is still seasonal. This is a business driven by people, and people like to take time off in the summer to rest and recharge. There's a reason that volumes in August tend to be low.And so this week felt like that pre-vacation rush to pack, find your keys, and remember your ticket before running out the door. Important earnings releases, central bank meetings and employment numbers all hit with quick succession. Some thoughts on all that whirlwind.The first story was earnings and continued equity rotation. Equity markets are seeing big shifts between which stocks are doing well and poorly, particularly in larger technology names. These shifts are a big deal for equity investors, but we think they remain much less material for credit.Technology is a much smaller sector of the bond market than the stock market, as these tech companies have generally issued relatively little debt – relative to their size. Credit actually tends to overlap much more with the average stock, which at the moment continues to do well. And while the Technology sector has been volatile, stocks in the US financial sector – the largest segment for credit – have been seeing much better, steadier gains.Next up this week was the Bank of Japan, which raised policy rates, a notable shift from many other central banks, which are starting to lower them. For credit, the worry from such a move was somewhat roundabout: that higher rates in Japan would strengthen its currency, the yen. That such strength would be painful for foreign exchange investors, who had positioned themselves the other way around – for yen weakness. And that losses from these investors in foreign exchange could lead them to lower exposure in other areas, potentially credit. But so far, things look manageable. While the yen did strengthen this week, it hasn't had the sort of knock-on impact to other markets that some had feared. We think that might be evidence that investor positioning in credit was not nearly as concentrated, or as large, as in certain foreign exchange strategies, and we think that remains the case.But the biggest story this week was the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, followed by the US Jobs number today. These two events need to be taken together.On Wednesday, the Fed chose to maintain its high current policy rate, while also hinting it's open to a cut. But with inflation falling rapidly in recent months, and already at the Fed's target on market-based measures, the question is whether the Fed should already be cutting rates to even out that policy. After all, lowering rates too late has often been a problem for the Fed in the past.Today's weak jobs report brings these fears front-and-center, as highly restrictive monetary policy may start to look out-of-line with labor market weakness. And not cutting this week makes it more awkward for the Fed to now adjust. If they move at the next meeting, later in September; well, that means waiting more than a month and a half. But acting before that time, in an unusual intra-bank meeting cut; well, that could look reactive. The market will understandably worry that the Fed, once again, may be reacting too late. That is a bad outcome for the balance of economic risks and for credit.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Our Head of Global Autos & Shared Mobility discusses what makes humanoid robots a pivotal trend with implications for the global economy.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Adam Jonas, Morgan Stanley's Head of Global Autos & Shared Mobility. Today I'll be talking about an unusual but hotly debated topic: humanoid robots.It's Tuesday, July 23rd, at 10am in New York. We've seen robots on factory floors, in displays at airports and at trade shows – doing work, performing tasks, even smiling. But over the last eighteen months, we seem to have hit a major inflection point.What's changed? Large Language Models and Generative AI. The current AI movement is drawing comparisons to the dawn of the Internet. It's begging big, existential questions about the future of the human species and consciousness itself. But let's look at this in more practical terms and consider why robots are taking on a human shape. The simplest answer is that we live in a world built for humans. And we're getting to the point where – thanks to GenAI – robots are learning through observation. Not just through rudimentary instruction and rules based heuristic models. GenAI means robots can observe humans in action doing boring, dangerous and repetitive tasks in warehouses, in restaurants or in factories. And in order for these robots to learn and function most effectively, their design needs to be anthropomorphic. Another reason we're bullish on humanoid robots is because developers can have these robots experiment and learn from both simulation and physically in areas where they're not a serious threat to other humans. You see, many of the enabling technologies driving humanoid robots have come from developments in autonomous cars. The problem with autonomous cars is that you can't train them on public roads without directly involving innocent civilians – pedestrians, children and cyclists -- into that experiment. Add to all of this the issue of critical labor shortages and challenging demographic trends. The global labor total addressable market is around $30 trillion (USD) or about one-third of global GDP. We've built a proprietary US total addressable market model examining labor dynamics and humanoid optionality across 831 job classifications, working with our economic team; and built a comprehensive survey across 40 sectors to understand labor intensity and humanoid ability of the workforce over time. In the United States, we forecast 40,000 humanoid units by 2030, 8 million by 2040 and 63 million by 2050 – equivalent to around $3 trillion (USD) of salary equivalent. But as early as 2028 we think you're going to see significant adoption beginning in industries like manufacturing, production, warehousing, and logistics, installation, healthcare and food prep. Then in the 2030s, you're going to start adding more in healthcare, recreational and transportation. And then after 2040, you may see the adoption of humanoid robots go vertical. Now you might say – that's 15 years from now. But just like autonomous cars, the end state might be 20 years away, but the capital formation is happening right now. And investors should pay close attention because we think the technological advances will only accelerate from here. Thanks for listening. And if you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

This week's guest is Aiden Rayner, a Melbourne, Australia-based chess trainer, blogger, podcaster,  and the founder of the training site, Don't Move Until You See It. Aiden became interested in chess improvement as an adult and quickly zeroed in on a need to improve his ability to picture a chess board in his head. In the subsequent years, he has developed some tools to help improve this skill, and has read extensively on how the different brains adapt to this task. Aiden also has studied how working memory functions, and shares what adults need to know about how it affects chess calculation. Lastly, Aiden shares a few “non-chess” book recommendations for those who would like to learn more about the challenges of rewiring our brains for chess. If you are interested in improving your chess game, you won't want to miss this conversation. Timestamps of topics discussed can be found below.  Thanks to our sponsors Chessable.com. They are now offering a #chesspunks approved classic, The Power of Pawns, presented by IM Andras Toth. If you sign up for Chessable pro, please use this link: https://www.chessable.com/pro/?utm_source=affiliate&utm_medium=benjohnson&utm_campaign=pro ”  02:00- Why doesn't Aiden like the term “visualization” when it comes to playing through moves in our heads Mentioned: GM George Koltanowski  07:00- What got Aiden into visualization?  11:00- What features does Aiden's site offer?  Mentioned: Aiden's blindfold trainer: https://dontmoveuntilyousee.it/blindfold-trainer/ 16:30- Patreon mailbag question: What advice does Aiden have for people adjusting from playing 2D (on screens) to playing 3D (OTB)?  26:00- Patreon mailbag question: Can Aiden share advice for how to improve at remembering a game through “narration” rather than visualization?  32:00- Aiden's recommended (non-chess) books: Mentioned: Thinking Fast and Slow Chatter, The Voice in Our Head and Why it Matters, and How to Harness It Visual Thinking: The Hidden Gifts of People Who Think in Pictures, Patterns, and Abstractions 34:30- What is working memory and why does it matter for chess players?  Mentioned: Chess Visualization with Don't Move   55:00- What are “the three Fs?”  1:05:00- Thanks to Aiden, for joining me! Here is it how to keep up with him: Don't Move Until You See It Website: https://dontmoveuntilyousee.it/what-is-conceptualization/ Follow Aiden on X here:  https://x.com/AidenAtDontMove Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Our Head of Corporate Credit Research shares four reasons that he believes credit spreads are likely to stay near their current lows.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley. Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives, today I'll be talking about why being negative credit isn't as obvious as it looks, despite historically low spreads.It's Friday, July 19th at 2pm in London.We're constructive on credit. We think the asset class likes moderation, and that's exactly what Morgan Stanley forecasts expect: moderate growth, moderating inflation and moderating policy rates. Corporate activity is also modest; and even though it's picking up, we haven't yet seen the really aggressive types of corporate behavior that tend to make bondholders unhappy. Meanwhile, demand for the asset class is strong, and we think the start of Fed rate cuts in September could make it even stronger as money comes out of money market funds, looking to lock in current interest rates for longer in all sorts of bonds – including corporate bonds. And so while spreads are low by historical standards, our call is that helpful fundamentals and demand will keep them low, at least for the time being. But the question of credit's valuation is important. Indeed, one of the most compelling bearish arguments in credit is pretty straightforward: current spreads are near some of their lowest levels of several prior cycles. They've repeatedly struggled to go lower. And if they can't go lower, positioning for spreads to go wider and for the market to go weaker, well, it would seem like pretty good risk/reward. This is an extremely fair question! But there are four reasons why we think the case to be negative isn't as straightforward as this logic might otherwise imply.First, a historical quirk of credit valuations is that spreads rarely trade at long-run average. They are often either much wider, in times of stress, or much tighter, in periods of calm. In statistical terms, spreads are bi-modal – and in the mid 1990s or mid 2000's, they were able to stay near historically tight levels for a pretty extended period of time. Second, work by my colleague Vishwas Patkar and our US Credit Strategy team notes that, if you make some important adjustments to current credit spreads, for things like quality, bond price, and duration, current spreads don't look quite as rich relative to prior lows. Current investment grade spreads in the US, for example, may still be 20 basis points wider than levels of January 2020, right before the start of COVID. Third, a number of the key buyers of corporate bonds at the moment are being driven by the level of yields, which are still high rather than spread, which are admittedly low. That could mean that demand holds up better even in the face of lower spreads. And fourth, credit is what we'd call a positive carry asset class: sellers lose money if nothing in the market changes. That's not the case for US Treasuries, or US Equities, where those who are negative – or short – will profit if the market simply moves sideways. It's one more factor that means that, while spreads are low, we're mindful that being negative too early can still be costly. It's not as simple as it looks. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Our Head of Corporate Credit Research explains why he expects the US Federal Reserve to make three rate cuts before the end of the year, starting in September.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley. Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives, today I'll be talking about why it's looking more likely that the Fed should, and will, cut interests rates several times this year.It's Friday, July 12th at 2pm in London.Last week, we discussed why the case for Fed rate cuts this year was strengthening. Credit markets generally don't care too much about the exact timing or pace of policy rates, but they do care if a central bank is behind the curve. That's because over the last 40 years, the worst returns for credit have repeatedly overlapped with periods where the Fed was too late in reversing tight monetary policy. After all, interest rates impact the economy with a pretty long and variable lag; and a interest rate cut today may not be fully felt in the economy for 12 months – or even longer. It's therefore important for a central bank to be proactive. And so, with the recent US economic data softer, and the Fed appearing in little rush to act, the concern was straightforward: if the Fed is waiting for signs of economic weakness to be obvious, it will take too long to lower interest rates to blunt this. The Fed will be behind the curve. This risk of acting too late hasn't gone away, and it's a key reason why we think credit investors should be rooting for economic data in the second half of this year to remain solid, in line with Morgan Stanley's base case. But this week did bring some events that suggest the Fed may start to adjust rates soon. First, in testimony before the US Congress, Chair Powell repeatedly emphasized that the risks for the US economy are becoming more balanced. Previously, the Fed had appeared to be much more focused on an upside scenario where conditions are hotter rather than a scenario where growth slowed unexpectedly. Second, in data released yesterday, US Consumer Price Inflation – or CPI – came in lower than expected. Overall, prices actually fell month-over-month, something that hasn't happened since May of 2020, a time when the pandemic was raging, and Fed rates were near zero percent. Morgan Stanley's base case is that moderating inflation will lead the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, November and December of this year. For credit, the question of “what do these rate cuts” mean is an ‘and' statement. If the Fed is lowering rates and growth is holding up, you are potentially looking at a mid-1990s scenario, the best period for credit in the modern era. But if the Fed is cutting and growth is weak … well, over and over again, that has not been good. We remain constructive on credit, expecting three Fed rate cuts this year to coexist with moderate growth. But weaker data remains the risk. For credit, good data is good. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Central banks play a crucial role in monetary policy and moderating the business cycle. Our Head of Corporate Credit Research explains why, despite their power, these financial institutions can't quickly steer through choppy economic waters.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley. Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives, today I'll be talking about why credit may start to get more concerned that the Fed will make the same mistake it often does.It's Wednesday, July 3rd at 2pm in London.Central banks are among the most powerful actors in financial markets, and investors everywhere hang on their every word, and potential next move. If possible, that seemed even more true recently, as central banks first intervened aggressively in bond markets during the height of COVID, and then raised interest rates at the fastest pace in over 40 years. Indeed, you could even take this a step further: many investors you speak to will argue central banks are the most important force in markets. All else comes second. But this view of Fed supremacy over the market and economy has an important caveat. For all of their power, the Federal Reserve did not prevent the recession of 1990. It did not prevent the dotcom bust or recession of 2001. It did not prevent the Great Financial Crisis or Great Recession of 2007-2009. These periods have represented the vast majority of credit losses over the last 35 years. And so, for all of the power of central banks, these recessions, and their associated default cycles in credit, have kept happening. The reasons for this are varied and debatable. But the central issue is that the economy is a bit like a supertanker; it's hard to turn quickly. You need to make adjustments well in advance, and often well before the signs of danger are clear. Currently, the Fed is still pressing the economic brakes. Interest rates from the Federal Reserve are well above so-called neutral; that is, where the Fed thinks interest rates neither boost, nor hold back, the economy. The justification for riding the break, so to speak, is that inflation earlier this year has still been higher than expected. But in the last two months, this inflation has rapidly cooled. Our economists think this trend will accelerate in the second half of the year, and ultimately allow the Fed to cut interest rates in September, November, and December. Still-high rates and cooling inflation isn't a problem when the economic data is strong. But more recently, this data has cooled. If that weaker data continues, credit investors may worry that central banks are too focused on the high inflation that's now behind us, and not focused enough on the potential slowing ahead. They'll worry that once again, it may be too late to turn the proverbial economic ship. We'd stress that the risks of this scenario are still low; but late-reacting central banks have – historically, repeatedly – been credit's biggest vulnerability. It makes it all the more important, that as we head into summer, that the data holds up. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today. And for those in the US, a very happy Fourth of July.

Our Head of Corporate Credit Research makes the case against the popular notion that solid economic data would be bad for markets, and instead offers a rationale for why now, more than ever, is the time for investors to root for positive economic developments. ----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley. Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives, today I'll be talking about why good data … is good.It's Friday, June 28th at 2pm in London. One of the bigger investor debates of 2024 is whether stronger or weaker economic data is the preferred outcome for the market. This isn't a trick question. Post-COVID, a large spike of inflation led to the fastest pace of interest rate hikes by central banks in over forty years. And so there's been an idea that weaker economic data, which would reduce that inflationary pressure and make central banks more likely to cut interest rates, is actually the better outcome for the market. Those lower interest rates after all might be helpful for moving the market higher or tighter. And stronger economic data, in contrast, could lead to more inflationary pressure, and even more rate increases. And so by this logic, bad data is good … and good data, well, would be bad. This “bad is good” mindset was prominent in the Autumn of 2022 and again in September of 2023, as markets weakened on stronger data and fears that it could drive further rate hikes. We saw the idea return this year, amidst higher-than-expected inflation readings in the first quarter. But we currently think this logic is misplaced. For markets, and certainly for credit, we think those who are constructive, like ourselves, are very much rooting for solid economic data. For now, good is good. Our first argument here is general. Over a long swath of available data, the worst returns for credit have consistently overlapped with the worst economic growth. Hoping for weaker data is, historically speaking, playing with fire, raising the odds that such weakness isn't just a blip, and opens the door for much worse outcomes for both the economy and credit. But our second reason is more specific to right now. Central to this idea that bad data would be better for the market is the assumption that central banks would look at any poor data, change their tune and come to the market's aid by lowering interest rates quickly. I think recent events really challenge that sort of thinking. While the European central bank did lower interest rates earlier this month, it struck a pretty cautious tone about any further easing. And the Federal Reserve actually raised its expected level of inflation and projected rate path on the same day that consumer price inflation in the US came in much lower than expected. Both increased the risk that these central banks are being more backward looking, and will be slow to react to weaker economic data if it materialises. And so, we think, credit investors should be hoping for good data, which would avoid a scenario where backward-looking central banks are too slow to change their tune. I'd note that this is what Morgan Stanley's economists are forecasting, with expectations that growth is a little over 2 percent this year in the US and a little over 1 percent in the Euro Area for this year. We expect the economic data to hold up, and for that to be the better scenario for credit. If the data turns down, we may need to change our tune. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.