Podcasts about cpi ppi

Craig Hemke, founder and editor of TF Metals Report, returns to share insights into the continued strength across precious metals markets, with a particular focus on the outperformance of silver and junior mining stocks. While gold remains rangebound around $3,300, silver has surged past $35/oz and now $37/oz , marking a breakout many investors have been waiting for. Craig highlights the powerful momentum dynamic in silver, where price strength feeds investor interest, accelerating further gains. This move is also showing up in key silver equities like the SILJ ETF, which has reclaimed levels not seen since 2022.   Key discussion themes include: The self-reinforcing momentum in silver and how it mirrors past speculative cycles ETF and equity signals: SILJ surpassing key resistance, signaling investor confidence Rotation into silver, platinum, palladium, and copper as gold consolidates The impact of central bank demand and a sharply weaker U.S. dollar on gold and silver Upcoming catalysts: CPI/PPI inflation data, FOMC meeting and dot plot, and option expiries in metals and mining stocks Craig also outlines how institutional buy-side expectations are slowly catching up to the new price environment and how that could impact analyst price targets across the mining sector. Click here to visit Craig's website - TF Metals Report

Live at 2pm PT, we're back with another wild swing in the markets! After a massive rally yesterday, today brought a sharp reversal, wiping out most of those gains. On this episode of TraderMerlin, we'll break down the price action, the latest inflation data, and what the growing signs of deflation in the U.S. could mean for traders, investors, and the Fed.

本期节目深入探讨了当前经济中备受关注的通胀数据，分析了CPI和PPI的变化及其背后的原因。我们了解到，春节错位和天气变化等因素对价格数据产生了显著影响，导致二月份CPI同比下降。节目还讨论了终端消费市场需求疲软的现状，以及如何通过政策来激发消费。投资者需要对未来的盈利复苏保持耐心，情绪驱动的追高可能会导致风险。通过这一分析，听众能够更好地理解通胀对生活和投资的影响。00:02:01:CPI同比下降幅度达12.6%，成为重要原因，终端消费需求仍需政策激发00:04:05:CPI与PPI之间的关系：食品价格涨幅较低，PPI下降幅度收窄00:06:06:PPI下降持续收窄，制造业PMI数据符合预期，经济复苏进程仍需耐心等待00:08:07:CPI和PPI数据揭示实体需求偏弱现状，对企业盈利复苏产生影响

留言告訴我你對這一集的想法： https://open.firstory.me/user/cksk66bh1e4ds0a72u1qnevya/comments *格陵蘭大選 溫和獨派獲勝 *中國CPI PPI雙降 *烏克蘭接受停戰30天 *三月歷史大事:日本311地震 來賓:國防安全研究院特約研究員 曾復生 ---------------------------------- Focus on I-News！ 聚焦國際 帶你一手掌握國際大事

Charles Schwab's Liz Ann Sonders offers a wide perspective on inflation following this morning's retail sales numbers. She talks about the "nature of the beast" behind all the data, saying it will move the needle on the Fed's rate cut decisions for months. Liz also recaps the PPI and CPI reports, looks ahead to other measures like GDP, and notes the Los Angeles fires will play a role in skewing inflation. ======== Schwab Network ======== Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribe Download the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185 Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7 Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watch Watch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-explore Watch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/ Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Charles Schwab's Collin Martin talks about the potential for a rate hike in 2025. He expects it to remain out of the question unless inflation reaccelerates, but the labor market needs to maintain the balance. Collin says the balance can shift on hotter-than-expected CPI and PPI data this week. ======== Schwab Network ======== Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribe Download the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185 Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7 Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watch Watch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-explore Watch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/ Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

本期播客中，我们探讨了实际利率对经济和债市的影响。通过分析十年期国债收益率减去CPI或PPI的变化，我们可以预测债市的未来趋势。李林总指出，实际利率转负意味着债市压力增大，而企业盈利可能上升。我们还讨论了房地产价格、基建开工量等指标对经济的影响，强调了政策在经济复苏中的关键作用。最后，财政和货币政策的配合将是明年经济走向的重要因素。00:02:02:观测物价水平回升：债券市场的重要指标关注事项00:04:03:房地产市场走势与政策变化：对债券市场的潜在影响分析00:06:06:明年的政策变化：财政与货币政策的配合方式及其影响00:08:06:经济复苏前景乐观，财政与货币政策持续加码预期增强00:10:07:股市与债市的跷跷板效应：调整与上涨的反复较量

*This content was taken from Episode 35, which was originally recorded in May 2024, but has been edited to mainly focus on the important terms PCE, PPI & CPI to help put into context the new data we are seeing now in December 2024 and how it affects us as consumers, workers, and investors.*  —----------------------------------------------------- Looking for unbiased, curated financial insights delivered straight to your inbox? Subscribe to the 1440 Business & Finance Newsletter, our trusted sponsor, and elevate your financial literacy—it's free and bi-weekly! This ad is sponsored by 1440 Business and Finance. —----------------------------------------------------- What Is PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures)?The PCE price index is considered The Fed's preferred index. It's kinda like how we use the S&P 500 indice to measure the stock market, but it's a price index that measures specific goods and services and it's regionalized. Basically, it's a guage on what Americans are spending and helps track inflation. It's currently +2.8% YOY (October 2024), which is up from +2.7% in September 2024 - not what we want to see, we'd like to see it go down. Resource: Updated Core PCE Link (excludes food and energy)  In Episode 15 we explained inflation and learned about PPI & CPI:  PPI: producer price index = is the perspective of the seller  CPI: consumer price index = is the perspective of the buyer  Updated PPI Data   What is the difference between the CPI and the PCE Index?The CPI measures the change in the out-of-pocket expenditures of all urban households and PCE measures the change in goods and services consumed by all households, and nonprofit institutions serving households. Dot Plot (summary of economic projections from the FOMC) ----------------------------------------------------

Post-election consumer confidence is rocketing higher. Inflation Data is coming: CPI & PPI which will be digested in time for next week's Fed meeting. Inflation numbers are likely to tick up from YOY comparisons. Portfolio re-balancing commences. What does financial success look like? Lance and Jonathan review the answers by-generations. Stocks vs Bonds: Earnings growth expectations are too high; what happens if we don't meet them? It was easy managing money this year... A review of Bob Farrell's Ten Investment Rules, with a focus on #9: When all experts agree... Tax-loss Harvesting & RMD's: Do it now. (Why you shouldn't wait until after Christmas.) Understanding the Wash-Sale Rule; speculate in taxable accounts, not IRA's and 401-k's. SEG-1: Post-election Confidence & Portfolio Re-balancing SEG-2: What Financial Success Looks Like - not SEG-3: What If We Don't Meet 2025 Expectations? SEG-4: Tax Loss Harvesting & RMD's - Do It Now Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nASrF7t64kY&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=3s ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Portfolio Rebalancing And Valuations. Two Risks We Are Watching." https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/portfolio-rebalancing-and-valuations-two-risks-we-are-watching/ "2025 – Do Economic Indicators Support Bullish Outlooks?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/2025-do-economic-indicators-support-bullish-outlooks/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Will the Markets Re-balance?" is here:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Z-IVRw7qXw&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Why Earnings Can't Outgrow the Economy" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vRF6slc1bew&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2s ------- Get more info & commentary:  https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #PortfolioRebalancing #MarketValuations #RiskManagement #InvestmentTrends #StockMarket2024 #MarketRally #MarketCorrection #MarketExpectations #MarketVolatility #VolatilityIndex #WindowDressing #MarketTrend #PortfolioCleanUp #MarketExuberance #OverBoughtMarket #SP500 #MarketPullBack #MarketConsolidation #MutualFundDistributions #EarningsVsEconomy #MarketInsights #EconomicGrowth #CorporateProfits #InvestingWisely #MarketExpectations #PortfolioRealityCheck #InvestmentStrategy #FinancialPlanning #MarketTrends2024 #WealthManagement #MarketLeverage #SpeculationRisks #InvestmentTrends #FinancialWarnings #StockVolatility #StockMarketSpeculation #MarketVolatility #HighRiskInvesting #SpeculativeTrading #FinancialTrends2025 #TrumpAdministration #RegulatoryChanges #InvestingAdvice #Money #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

Investors have their eyes on Treasury yields following Monday's losses fueled partly by a yield rally. Rates could stay in focus ahead of Treasury auctions and CPI later this week.Here is Schwab's early look at the markets for Tuesday, December 10th: Major indexes begin the day licking their wounds and watching the bond market after moderate losses Monday to start a week dominated by U.S. inflation data and central bank meetings. Stocks finished near their lows yesterday, potentially putting the market in a weak spot on the charts as Tuesday dawns.Treasury yields rose across much of the curve Monday amid worries about tomorrow's Consumer Price Index (CPI) data and reaffirmation by President-elect Trump that he stands by his tariff and deportation policies, which the market see as inflationary.  Adding to pressure on bonds, which move the opposite direction of yields, was The New York Federal Reserve's November consumer inflation expectations for the year ahead climbing to 3% from 2.9% in October. That followed year-ahead inflation expectations jumping to 2.9% from 2.6% in Friday's University of Michigan's preliminary December consumer sentiment report, the highest in six months. "CPI & PPI loom large this week, and markets will be fixated on this inflation data," said Joe Mazzola, head trading and derivatives strategist at Schwab.Besides CPI, tomorrow brings a rate decision from the Bank of Canada followed by Thursday's expected rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB). The CPI data and Thursday's Producer Price Index (PPI) could have a large impact on the U.S. rate outlook, but the Fed is seen almost certainly lowering rates when it gathers next week. Tech stumbled to start the week after driving last week's rally to record highs. The softness surfaced after China announced an anti-trust investigation into Nvidia (NVDA), which weighed on Nvidia and most other semiconductor stocks. Tech may find itself under more pressure today after Oracle (ORCL) disappointed late Monday with earnings that missed analysts' average estimate. Revenue came in as expected, dominated by AI-driven cloud performance, but shares fell 7% in pre-market trading. While Nvidia and semiconductors weighed on tech yesterday thanks partly to Beijing, not all the China news was bearish. China's Politburo shifted to looser monetary policy and promised more stimulus. This gave U.S.-listed Chinese stocks a boost and appeared to help U.S. gold mining and European luxury goods makers that might benefit from increased Chinese demand. Apple (AAPL), with a large presence in the Chinese market, registered a new all-time high Monday.  As of late Monday, traders saw an 86% chance rates will fall 25 basis points at the conclusion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting December 17–18 and a 14% chance of no move, based on the CME FedWatch Tool. It's unlikely the Fed would want to rock the boat by pausing next week with the market primed for a cut. But the central bank might deliver a so-called "hawkish trim," meaning it could lower rates and also express caution in its updated projections and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's press conference. Heading into Tuesday, the question is whether Wall Street sees any "buy the dip" action after Monday's washout. The worst performing S&P 500 sector yesterday was mega-cap dominated communication services, while only the defensive health care sector made any gains.The S&P 500® index (SPX) fell 37.42 points (0.61%) Monday to 6,052.85; the Dow Jones Industrial Average®($DJI) slipped 240.59 points (0.54%) to 44,401.93; and the Nasdaq Composite®($COMP) fell 123.08 points (0.62%) to 19,736.69.Important DisclosuresInformation on this site is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered individualized recommendations or personalized investment advice. The type of securities and investment strategies mentioned may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review a security transaction for his or her own particular situation. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market, economic and geo-political conditions.Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.All corporate names are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.Past performance is no guarantee of future results.The Schwab Center for Financial Research is a division of Charles Schwab & Co., Inc.Apple Podcasts and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries.Google Podcasts and the Google Podcasts logo are trademarks of Google LLC.Spotify and the Spotify logo are registered trademarks of Spotify AB.(1124-0130)

最新经济数据出炉：6月份CPI微升、PPI转跌，中国经济现状引人深思。食品价格下挫拉低CPI，而猪肉价格大涨未能扭转趋势，反映出消费需求不足的问题。同时，PPI下滑显示企业盈利前景不容乐观。更严峻的是，内需疲软使进口表现不佳，尽管出口增长，但无法掩盖总体经济冷热不均的实况。未来，市场急需有效政策刺激，提振企业与消费者信心。00:02:01:经济弱势影响供给端，CPI与PPI数据表现平淡00:04:03:中国出口继续增长，进口下降，经济呈现冷热不均状态00:06:05:弱势市场中的心理准备：融券政策调整可能无法改变市场走势

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Tom Busby takes a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week: In the US – it's the start of earnings season and the Archegos trial goes to jury In the UK – we look at the challenges facing new Prime Minster Keir Starmer In Asia – we will preview China's trade and CPI/PPI data See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Tom Busby takes a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week: In the US – it's the start of earnings season and the Archegos trial goes to jury In the UK – we look at the challenges facing new Prime Minster Keir Starmer In Asia – we will preview China's trade and CPI/PPI data See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Tom Busby takes a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week: In the US – it's the start of earnings season and the Archegos trial goes to jury In the UK – we look at the challenges facing new Prime Minster Keir Starmer In Asia – we will preview China's trade and CPI/PPI data See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

美國財報季結束 本週聚焦PPI 與 CPI數據 英國擺脫經濟衰退 股市創高 降息機率高 中國消費降級 PPI難以復甦 -- Hosting provided by SoundOn

Come with us as we leap through the gallows and levitate down WallStreet.

【文稿：】继续学习经济数据，很多人说学这些东西对炒股没啥帮助，对普通投资者来说不够接地气。说实话，我很认可这个结论，所以每个专业人士都会劝导周边的普通人不要去炒股，因为炒股的专业程度不是普通人能接受的，普通人也不适合炒股。但如果你下决心要把股票玩明白，那你就得精通经济、政策等等。我也知道宏观经济的内容不会有多少人去听，但教什么有时候不是我决定的，而是学投资就必须要学会对宏观经济的分析。如果你一开始就排斥这些东西，那也恰恰说明你不适合投资这件事。你肯定会说很多人都排斥这些东西，没错、所以我开头才说多数人都不适合炒股，否则也不会有超80%的人都在亏损。我这人说话比较讲究效率，所以不太重视对言语的修饰，我的话听起来会让很多人不舒服，但请相信我，我说的每句话都是事实。然后回到正题，开始今天的教学，今天我们要学的是CPI和PPI指数，按照顺序先来讲讲CPI。CPI叫做居民消费价格指数，这是出现频率非常高的一项数据，即便不炒股的人也听过该指数。CPI反映的是居民消费的价格，如何理解消费的价格？没错，其实就是物价，通俗点讲所谓的CPI指数就是物价指数，这里指“物”包含了所有商品和服务。我花了1块钱买了一根雪糕，此时我为CPI指数贡献了1块钱。如果我买了10根雪糕，请问我为CPI贡献了多少钱？答案还是1元，因为CPI统计的是物的价格，而不是数额。我买再多雪糕也没用，只要一根雪糕还是1块钱，那么我对CPI的贡献就是1元。除非以后我只买5块钱一根的雪糕，这时候我对CPI的贡献就是5块钱。CPI统计的就是所有商品价格的变化，这里指而定商品并不单指实物、服务也是商品的一种。我去按摩店捏脚，这也是消费行为，捏脚的费用也是物价的范畴，这部分消费也会统计到CPI当中。然后再来学习第二个数据，PPI指数。PPI理解起来比CPI复杂一些，PPI叫做“生产者物价指数”，所谓生产者就是工厂，统计的是工厂生产的商品价格的变化。工厂作为中间方，它的商品有两种价格，一种是出厂价格，另一种购进价格。所以PPI指数其实包含两个数据，也就是“生产者出厂价格指数”和“生产者购进价格指数”。我们举个例子：我买了一袋榨菜，价格是2元，这一环节的消费是为CPI做贡献，因为CPI统计的是消费端的价格变化。榨菜的价格是2元，这个价格是在超市的零售价，超市去工厂采购时的价格一定不是2元，而是低于2元，我们假设是1.5元。这1.5元就是“生产者出厂价格”。也就是榨菜从工厂出厂时的价格。工厂为了生产这袋榨菜需要采购原材料，我们假设榨菜的原料是白菜，那么工厂就需要采购大量白菜作为原料，工厂购买白菜时花费的价格就是“生产者购进价格”。也就是工厂去购买原材料时的价格。所谓的“生产者出厂价格指数”、以及“生产者购进价格指数”就是这么来的，这两个指数统称为PPI指数，不过由于习惯性原因，当PPI指数单独出现的时候，大家会默认指的是“生产者出厂价格指数”，但实际上PPI包含的是两项数据，也就是既包含出厂价格指数，也包含购进价格指数。不难发现，PPI统计的是生产者层面的价格变化，所以你可以理解为PPI是CPI的上游，二者有相互影响的关系。但你看到PPI数据不断走高的时候，往往意味着物价CPI也有走高的可能。毕竟当白菜的购进价格上涨的时候，榨菜的出厂价格就会上涨，最终消费者消费榨菜的价格也会上涨。这时候你可能会问：这些物价指数与股市又有哪些关系？一般股票也是商品的一种，如果物价持续上涨，那么股票作为商品也免不了上涨，虽然这是一种通胀带来的泡沫化上涨，但价格会涨却是不争的事实。（内容已登记版权，翻版必究！）

1:44 錄影當天(連假前4/3)，地震與前一日的歐美股市重挫 5:50 愚人節的台積電玩笑，見到台灣傳統媒體的可悲與不專業 8:20 債券殖利率飆升 first time!? 24Q1早已提醒過 13:15 時序上，季底再平衡與季初反轉的關鍵影響 15:22 24Q1 股債大分歧，導致債市季底再平衡買盤 19:20 台積電ADR 4/1大漲，結束再平衡與資本支出增加才是潛在原因 21:00 股市會不會連動債市!? 尋找季初第一個全面齊漲/齊跌交易日 22:00 5、20MA死亡交叉與全面齊跌的開低走低交易日，是翻空信號 26:13 經濟數據中，就業數據初值每每大幅修正，公布好壞不需太在意 29:43 再次強調，就業與降息並非完全連動，薪資與通膨更值得關注(下週) 31:30 油價狂噴: 美國親兒子以色列失控+俄羅斯減產換取影響拜登選情 34:00 CPI、PPI、長期公債拍賣疊加，可能出現全面齊漲/跌關鍵交易日 37:35 關於策略建議與本集總結

CPI The Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in a little bit hotter than expected as the headline number for February showed an annual increase of 3.2% versus on expectation of 3.1% and the core CPI showed an annual increase of 3.8% versus an expectation of 3.7%. While it was not much progress, there was still a decline from last month's core CPI reading of 3.9%. This marked the lowest reading since May 2021 when core CPI was 3.8%. Food was a bright spot in the report as the annual increase was just 2.2%. Food at home came in at an annual increase of 1.0%, while food away from home increased 4.5%. With wage pressures continuing, I believe this discrepancy will continue. Energy was also an interesting sector as the annual reading showed a decline of 1.9%, but the monthly reading was up 2.3%. Energy has been a big positive for the headline number, but as we lap easier levels it will likely not be as big of a benefit. One of the areas that remains very hot is motor vehicle insurance as it was up 20.6% compared to last year. I believe this item will remain hot for the next several months, but as we lap higher prices it should subdue. Shelter also remained a large weight on the report as it increased 5.7% over the last year and accounted for about two-thirds of the annual increase in core CPI. I feel like I sound like a broken record, but I continue to believe that this is heavily distorting the numbers and is it declines over the remainder of the year it should be a benefit to both headline and core CPI. I don't believe this report does anything to change the expectation for three cuts in the back half of the year. PPI I was somewhat surprised to see the negative reaction to the February Producer Price Index (PPI). It seems as if people were fixated on the monthly jump of 0.6%, which doubled both the estimate and January's reading of 0.3%. Looking year-over-year though the numbers still look quite manageable. The headline number increased just 1.6% and core PPI, which excludes food and energy was up 2%. I don't think this report should have a major impact on the Fed's expected interest rate direction.   401k It's no secret that I'm a big advocate of saving in your 401k, but I was surprised to see that according to a recent survey 77% workers believe that the unavailability of pensions is making it harder to achieve the American dream and 83% say all workers should have a pension to be independent and self-reliant in retirement. I was also surprised to see some UAW members are still unsatisfied with the automaker's retirement plans as some are continuing to push for pensions. A Ford spokesperson recently shared the current retirement structure at their company, "The company contributes 10% of employee base wages, plus $1 per hour worked (capped at 2,080 hours a year), with zero employee contribution required.” I would take that over a defined benefit plan any day. 401ks give participants the power to grow their wealth more effectively, they are much better estate planning tools, and they are much more portable if changing employers. The key is you have to take accountability and actually participate in your 401k to reap the benefits.  Bitcoin Peaking Point I admit it myself that I have no idea where bitcoin will peak. But the truth is, no one does. I do know that demand is high right now because Wall Street continues to build their ETF's to collect their fees, which I have talked about before. But can we please get off some of the comparisons of Bitcoin to make one feel better, especially the one with gold and saying it is a digital gold. The value of all mined gold is around $15 trillion. A good portion of that is in gold jewelry. I know when I buy a gift for my wife like a gold bracelet or necklace, she's going to be pretty happy, but I can't even write the words how to compare if I gave her a gift somehow of a Bitcoin that she can open and do something with it. I think if I would try, I could be sleeping on the sofa that night. Also, let's stop saying this will be the replacement currency if the dollar falls. Just think of the calamity the country would go through with a fall of the dollar in the United States. Do you think you will still be able to plug into the Internet and access your Bitcoin? You may not even have electricity to plug-in your electronic devices like phones, computers and laptops? Let's really understand what Bitcoin is, it is a speculative game that is being played right now, and it really cannot be used for anything that is really of any value. There are smart economists like David Kelly from JPMorgan who have similar feelings. He recently told Barron's, “I worry about the silly decisions investors make. People get misled by all sorts of fads and fantasies as to how they should invest. I worry about the money that's been poured into things like Bitcoin, which is absolute nonsense. It is simply a focus of speculation. I worry that someday that'll all go poof and people will lose money.” I've said it before, but congratulations if you have made money on Bitcoin, if you want to continue to hold it you should really think through what it is. If you don't have a sound answer, you should sell it.  Tax Brackets vs Your Tax Rate Most people believe tax rates are going up, which may be true. With the level of government spending and debt, it is logical to conclude taxes will need to increase to keep up. Starting in 2026, the federal tax brackets are set to increase due to the sunset of the current tax rates implemented in 2018. We may also see further tax increases to address issues like the deficit or Social Security. However, there is a difference between the tax brackets and the tax rate you will experience as an individual. Just because tax rates increase, doesn't necessarily mean the rate you will be subject to will be higher or that your tax bill will be higher. Currently the federal tax rates are 10%, 12%, 22%, 24%, 32%, 35%, 37%, and they are expected to change to 10%, 15%, 25%, 28%, 33%, 35%, 39.6%, which is technically an increase. These are brackets which means the more income you have, the higher you get pushed into the brackets. What most people don't understand is that your individual level of income will also fluctuate up and down over time, not just the tax brackets. In retirement you have much more flexibility in choosing where your income comes from, so while you're working you might find yourself in the 4th tax bracket which is 24%, but in retirement with the right planning you may get to the 2nd tax bracket which could be 15% at that time. Even though tax rates increased, your tax rate could go down because you will be in a lower bracket due to your income level. I'm not saying taxes aren't a problem in retirement, because they absolutely can be, but the way to address them is to understand how your individual income will change over time so you can take advantage of the tax system all along the way.

Fleri returns this week, joining Kyle and Vanta Trading's Baba Yaga to discuss recovering from outsized losses along with some insights into ADRs and why they are important to understand. The good, bad, and ugly features a mixed bag, with plenty of learning opportunities (plus a bonus bad beat from Fleri!) and the bold predictions for this week center around the upcoming CPI/PPI release.Sponsors and FriendsOur podcast is sponsored by Sue Maki at Fairway Independent Mortgage (MLS# 206048). Licensed in 38 states, if you need anything mortgage-related, reach out to her at SPullen@fairwaymc.com or give her a call at (520) 977-7904. Tell her 2 Bulls sent you to get the best rates available!For anyone trading futures, check out Vantatrading.com. Founded by Mr. W Banks and Baba Yaga, they provide a ton of educational content with the focus of teaching aspiring traders how to build a repeatable, profitable process. You can find our exclusive affiliate link/discount code for Vanta ‘s subscription in our free discord server as well!If you are interested in signing up with TRADEPRO Academy, you can use our affiliate link here. We receive compensation for any purchases made when using this link, so it's a great way to support the show and learn at the same time! **Join our Discord for a link and code to save 10%**To contact us, you can email us directly at suggestions@financialineptitude.com Be sure to follow us on Facebook, Twitter, or Discord to get updated when new content is posted! Check out our directory for other amazing interviews we've done in the past!If you like our show, please let us know by rating and subscribing on your platform of choice!If you like our show and hate social media, then please tell all your friends!If you have no friends and hate social media and you just want to give us money for advertising to help you find more friends, then you can donate to support the show here!Baba Yaga:Solving problems, helping set goals, and refining processes is the bulk of Baba's passion. He does that in many contexts ranging from nonprofits to real estate firms and everything in between. He focuses on market structure through the lens of TPO charting and executes based on volume, misplaced large orders, and delta. He loves the opening range breakout and typically trades the market from the “inside out”. Vanta Trading - 7d Free TrialVanta Trading YouTubeFollow Baba Yaga on TwitterFleri:Enter the world of trading with Fleri, a seasoned trader whose journey began in the early days of crypto exchanges and mid-cap stocks. Evolving over time, Fleri redirected his focus to futures and intraday trading, specifically honing his expertise in ES, NQ, RTY, CL, and UB. His approach is deeply rooted in Market Auction Theory, navigating the market by tracking participants through a nuanced blend of pattern recognition and the confluence of Price Action and Order Flow. At the heart of Fleri's trading philosophy is a meticulous plan of execution, identifying areas for the auction to potentially seek value. Leveraging Order Flow and Price Action, he capitalizes on opportunities that present themselves throughout the trading day. Fleri is not just a trader; he's a dedicated educator, sharing his insights through podcasts, Twitter, and Discord to support fellow traders on their journeys. What sets Fleri apart is not only his technical prowess but also his lighthearted approach and transparency about both past and current struggles. In the complex world of trading, Fleri brings not only expertise but also a relatable and open demeanor, creating a supportive environment for traders to learn and thrive.Follow Fleri on TwitterAvo Alpha DiscordAdvertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brandsPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

AI Outlook So Far Microsoft spent about $7 million per 30 second ad for the Super Bowl promoting their Copilot AI service. Some results are not coming in so good for Copilot with some testers after using the software for more than six months said it was useful but doesn't live up to its price. Another survey adopter said the initial excitement wears off with a 20% drop in use after only a month. Executives at Microsoft expected billions of dollars in new revenue as their search engine Bing would take market share from Google. Unfortunately, nearly a year later Bing has only seen less than a one percent gain in market share. A survey from Boston consulting group said that roughly 90% of business executives said generative AI is a priority for the company this year; however, 66% said it would take a couple years for the technology to move beyond the hype. 70% of those executives said they were only going to do small investments with limited testing. I've been concerned about the over hype of the money going into AI and the return on investment taking years to payoff. This would not be the first time on Wall Street that the hype sent stocks into orbit, only to come back down to earth when reality set in. Investing in Technology More strange news with the markets. As of the week ending February 9th, the NASDAQ was up 6.5% this year and the S&P 500, which is also heavily weighted in tech companies had increased 5.4% in 2024. This compares to a return of just 0.84% for the broader Russell 2000 index. The S&P 500 has increased 14 of the last 15 weeks something we have not seen since the end of 1972. I'm not saying the market is going to crash tomorrow, but the 73/74 market period had a very long bear market. The difference here is that our market is so concentrated in technology that I think we could see a bear market, but many companies will still gain going forward because of the great value that has been ignored. Another example of exuberance in technology would be that fact that since the 2008 financial crisis, US companies with dividends above 5% gave investors a return of 450%. Over that same timeframe, companies that don't pay a dividend have returned nearly 1200%. Going back to the 1870s, this flies in the face of normal behavior. The excitement in tech has led to some major gains for the big tech companies and Microsoft is now the most valuable company with a market cap around $3.1 trillion. It is almost twice the $1.6 trillion value of the entire S&P 500 energy sector, yet it's annual free cash flow of around $67 billion is less than half the $135 billion from these energy companies. I do not know what will cause a drop or when it will happen, I just believe many investors do not realize the risk that they are taking by investing heavily into technology. Unfortunately, all parties do come to an end. CPI The Consumer Price Index (CPI) caused a lot of concern and sent stocks lower as the reading came in above expectations. Frankly, looking through the data I don't think the numbers were that bad. CPI rose 3.1% compared to last year which was above expectations of 2.9%, but was lower than the reading of 3.4% in December. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy rose 3.9% and came in above the expectation of 3.7%. This reading matched December's 3.9% rise which was the smallest increase since May 2021. It is important to remember that numbers don't always go in a straight line and I believe this report should not have a major impact on the Fed's rate decisions. Especially, when looking deeper at the numbers. The shelter index again continued to be a heavyweight on the report as it climbed 6% compared to last year. This increase accounted for over two thirds of the 12-month increase in core CPI. It was also interesting that there was a little bit of a divergence between the rent of a primary residence which was up 0.4% in the month compared to the owners' equivalent rent of residences which was up 0.6% in the month. I believe this is a silly metric that distorts the CPI level. The Owners' equivalent rent is obtained through surveys and asks members of a household: “If someone were to rent your home today, how much do you think it would rent for monthly, unfurnished, and without utilities?" I don't believe this is a great way for tracking shelter inflation and that these numbers should be taken with a grain of salt. Other areas of the report continued to see positive deceleration or even deflation in some cases. The energy index was down 4.6% compared to last year with gasoline falling 6.4%. Food at home showed a gain of just 1.2%, which compares to a peak of 13.5% in August 2022. Food away from home did have a larger increase of 5.1%, which likely stems from higher wages and the elevated demand we are seeing at restaurants and bars. Overall, as I said I don't think this was a bad report, but investors need to realize that the Fed will not be cutting rates 6 times this year. PPI I was somewhat disappointed by the Producer Price Index (PPI), as I thought we would see better numbers. In January, PPI rose 0.3% compared to the prior month, which was the biggest move since August and it was well above the expected increase of 0.1%. Core PPI was even more troubling considering it saw a 0.5% increase, which easily topped the expectation for an increase of just 0.1%. Looking at the year over year increase, the numbers are less concerning. Headline PPI increased just 0.9%, but core PPI did see an increase of 2.6%. I wouldn't recommend panicking over one report, but I will definitely be keeping an eye on inflation over the next few months. I still believe the broader trend will show a decline towards the 2% target, but there will likely be bumps in the road. Financial Planning: Health Insurance Before Medicare Most become eligible for Medicare at age 65. With Medicare you will have a Part B premium, which is $174.70 per month in 2024, and potentially an additional premium of up to $200 per month depending if you select a Medicare Advantage Plan or a Medicare Supplement Plan. If you retire before age 65, health insurance can be much more expensive and range into the thousands of dollars per month. For many this is a major factor in why they delay retirement. However, with the correct planning ahead of time, it is possible to retire early without being subject to exorbitant insurance premiums. When purchasing health insurance through the Health Insurance Marketplace, the actual premium is based on your income. This means if you can keep your income lower, you will qualify for the same coverage, but at a lower monthly cost. Some ways to keep income low is to keep extra cash, taxable brokerage accounts, and Roth accounts available as withdrawals from these accounts are not considered income. Therefore, these types of assets can cover livings expenses until reaching Medicare at age 65 while also keeping health insurance premiums, federal taxes, and state taxes at a minimum. This also means it may be necessary to defer other types of income such as Social Security, pensions, capital gains, pre-tax retirement account withdrawals, and Roth conversions until reaching age 65. There are many insurance plans available all with their own premium based on income, so it is important to choose the right plan to cover your individual medical needs, but with the right planning, there are affordable options available for early retirement.

We're joined by Sam Callahan, John Haar, Dr. Jeff Ross, and Joe Carlasare for another episode of "Swan Private Macro Friday." We discuss how Bitcoin is seeming to be in a bull market, thoughts on interest rates and CPI/PPI data from this week, and more.Use code “CAFE” for 10% off your tickets to ⁠https://www.pacificbitcoin.com⁠⁠ "Welcome to Bitcoin" A FREE 1-hour course hosted by Natalie Brunell, perfect for helping you to orange-pill family members over the holidays at https://Swan.com/welcome ⁠⁠ Swan Team Members:Sam Callahan: https://twitter.com/samcallahTomer Strolight: https://twitter.com/TomerStrolightJohn Haar Twitter: ⁠https://twitter.com/john_at_swanDante Cook: https://twitter.com/Dante_Cook1Produced by: https://twitter.com/Producer_Jacob “From Timechain to Cantillionares Game, you can find Tip_NZ creations at Geyser Fund:” ⁠https://geyser.fund/project/tip⁠ Swan Bitcoin is the best way to accumulate Bitcoin with automatic recurring buys and instant buys from $10 to $10 million. Get started in just 5 minutes. Your first $10 purchase is on us: https://swanbitcoin.com/yt  Download the all new Swan app! iOS: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/swan-bitcoin/id1576287352 Android: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.swanbitcoin.android&pli=1  Are you a high net worth individual or do you represent corporation that might be interested in learning more about Bitcoin? Swan Private guides corporations and high net worth individuals toward building generational wealth with Bitcoin. Find out more at https://swan.com/private Check out the best place for Bitcoin education, Swan Bitcoin's “Bitcoin Canon”. Compiling all of the greatst articles, news sources, videos and more from your favorite bitcoiners! https://www.swan.com/canon/  Get paid to recruit new Bitcoiners: https://swan.com/enlistHello and welcome to The Café Bitcoin Podcast brought to you by Swan Bitcoin, the best way to buy and learn about Bitcoin. We're excited to announce we are bringing the The Café Bitcoin conversation from Twitter Spaces to you on this show, The Café Bitcoin Podcast, Monday - Friday every week. Join us as we speak to guest like Max Keiser, Lyn Alden, Tomer Strolight, Cory Klippsten and many others from the bitcoin space. Also, be sure to hit that subscribe button to make sure you get the notifications when we launch an episode. Join us Monday - Friday 7pst/10est every Morning and become apart of the conversation! Thank you again and we look forward to giving you the best bitcoin content daily here on The Café Bitcoin Podcast. Swan Bitcoin is the best way to accumulate Bitcoin with automatic recurring buys and instant buys from $10 to $10 million. Get started in just 5 minutes. Your first $10 purchase is on us: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://swan.com⁠⁠/yt⁠⁠⁠ Connect with Swan on social media:Twitter: ⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/Swan⁠

Dave Erfle, Founder and Editor of the Junior Miner Junky, joins us to discuss how the markets have responded to the CPI and PPI inflation readings, the geopolitical flare ups on Friday in Yemen, along with the technical setup in gold, GDX, GDXJ, and Silver.   We start off looking at how the market is pricing in Fed rate cuts for the balance of the year, and Dave points out that it will be more important as to why they actually start cutting rates.    Technically, it is encouraging that gold has continued to hold and put in a number of weekly closes above the $2000 level, but ultimately Dave wants to see a decisive close above $2100 to signal that a true breakout is in order.  We wrap up with a  wide-ranging discussion on the underperformance of the PM equities to gold, and why it is so important to see silver start getting a speculative bid along with the mining stocks.   Click here to visit Dave's site, the Junior Miner Junky.

欢迎收听雪球和喜马拉雅联合出品的财经有深度雪球国内领先的集投资交流交易一体的综合财富管理平台，聪明的投资者都在这里。听众朋友们大家好我是主播匪石，今天分享的内容叫CPI为负，通缩之局如何破？来自二马由之。11月份中国的CPI 下降0.5%，我不知道这算不算通缩。但是这肯定不是好事情。下降的CPI 表明消费动力不足，经济发展动力不足。比CPI 下降更多的是PPI，同比下降了3%。为什么会出现这样的情况，是否有解决办法。我尝试从自己非专业的角度，说说自己的看法，此次内容是对于自己认知的记录。首先CPI和PPI表现较弱的大背景是这样的。全球经济不够景气及国外一些逆全球化的行为，中国出口不振。按美元计价，今年前11个月，我国进出口总值5.41万亿美元，下降5.6%。其中，出口3.08万亿美元，下降5.2%；进口2.33万亿美元，下降6%。自2021年开始，房地产行业陷入调整，要知道房地产是中国的第一支柱产业，影响了众多的行业。房地产作为地方财政的第一来源，房地产调整也影响了地方政府的收入及投资。出口和投资出现问题，消费自然就会受影响。CPI不振也就在预料之中。对于PPI的下滑，我认为有两个原因。首先是受出口及消费影响，这个因素不是特别可控，另一个则是因为过度的投资。在经济发展吃力时，扩大投资是拉动经济指标非常有效的手段。但是却未必是真的好办法。我们看一个例子。2020年河南永煤集团暴雷，这个事导致河南城投债发行受到冲击，直到2021年4月，城投债净融资才由负转正。永煤集团暴雷的原因很多，高杠杆、高利息、过度扩张，煤炭行业产能过剩。这里面我认为最大的原因还是产能过剩导致的低煤价。而河南的煤矿开采成本高，低煤价下盈利很脆弱。挽救永煤的是行业供给侧改革及突如其来的俄乌冲突，煤价大涨，23年，永煤提前兑现了6只企业债券。过度投资的结果就是卷，行业很难盈利，价格战，最终行业出清，之前的投资打水漂，人员失业，金融风险提升。除了消费者用上了白菜价的产品外，几乎没有受益者。而且消费者的另一个角色是行业的从业者，企业没有赚到钱，消费者的消费能力又从何而来。另外是否有必要让消费者如此迅速地用上白菜价的产品。事情的发展应该是循序渐进的、可持续的。因此，在这个CPI和PPI下行的阶段。我个人看法是这样的。首先要控制投资。特别是产能不紧张的行业（中国似乎大多数行业都产能过剩），不要再扩大生产，浪费钱财了。如何控制呢？可以通过行政准入，也可以通过定向加息，及能源价格的提升。方法很多，不同行业可以采用不同的办法，也可以打组合拳。控制投资的好处是什么？有企业有盈利，企业员工收入有保证，金融安全得到巩固。另外，没有被投资浪费的资金可以发给老百姓。减轻居民杠杆，形成消费。其次，提升公共服务价格。我这么说，可能很多人会不满意，因为触动他们的利益了。总体来说，我们的公共服务价格，除了高速路费用，是非常便宜的。电价几十年不动，公交车票费用涨幅远低于居民收入涨幅，市政轨道交通服务长期亏损。真的没有必要这么干。公共服务不能暴利，但是适度的利润还是要有的。改变地方政府职能，大幅削减地方政府开支。中国基建到了这一步，差不多到头了。再继续基建就是浪费资金。政府搞投资的职能应该要压缩了。把投资的事交给企业，按照市场化的方式进行。非市场化的投资，资金效率不够，资源配置不优。政府职能转向民生。解决百姓的教育、医疗、保障性住房问题。关于这一点，很难主动实施。但是可能在经济环境的逼迫下，不得不实施。但是其实越主动，越早干，效果会越好，阵痛也小。加息（定向加息）。这个时候说加息是一个很难，很有争议的想法。地方政府、居民部门高杠杆、高债务，加息可能会把他们拖垮。但是低利率也是很危险的。不少企业在低利率环境下大幅举债，建设了大量的落后产能。而未来一旦转向加息周期，就是这些企业出现困境之时。我鼓励对企业加息，协助企业控制杠杆。我并不鼓励企业在产能已经过剩的情况下继续加大投资。但是我们可以网开三面。对于居民的房贷利率定向低息，其实居民的房贷利率过去太高了。房贷维持一个不高的利率，对银行来说，照样是优质资产。对于地方政府债务，我是总体鼓励加息的。低吸对于地方政府没实质性好处。低息是鼓励他们加杠杆。副作用比正面作用大。地方政府的债务需要中央政府协助化解，而不是通过降级利率来化解。对于鼓励型行业，这个可以出特殊政策，例如中央政府出利率补贴。鼓励破产，特别是非战略行业企业的破产。僵尸企业对于资源优化配置，金融安全都造成了很大的威胁。也扰乱了市场秩序。如果过去不救房地产企业，今天的地产危机就走不到这一步。以上，我认为对于解决目前的困境是有帮助的。

*NEW ITEM!* Purchase my newest book! "15 Conversations with Real Estate Millionaires" https://amzn.to/3CGOWOU

CPI與PPI連袂反彈，保持跟FED步乏一致。 長天期公債風險高，不能無腦買。 BigTime鏈遊再起，能擺脫挖提賣的龐氏宿命？ 敝圈老是在炒短線？還是要有正確認識。邏輯跟知性才能幫到你。 --- Send in a voice message: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/u694au6bd4u723e/message

United Auto Workers I understand that unions want to try and provide benefits for their workers, but the United Auto Workers (UAW) seems to be asking for unachievable demands. The negotiations with Stellantis, Ford, and General Motors are underway and the UAW is demanding a 46% pay increase over the next few years. There would be a 20% increase effective once the new contract is signed and then there would be 5% raises annually until 2027. On top of the massive pay increase the list of demands includes the restoration of cost-of-living pay, defined benefit pensions for all workers, and restoring retiree health coverage. The President of the UAW, Shawn Fain, also brought up more paid time off and a 32-hour workweek. If the UAW was able to get their full list of demands this would destroy the US auto companies and limit their ability to compete. Bankrupting these companies helps no one. As of now the current contract is set to expire on September 14th and I believe there will be a strike as the two sides are likely very far apart.   Gold 26% of Americans believe gold is currently the best long-term investment, which is an increase from 15% one year ago. Unfortunately, people are investing in gold near the all-time high of $2,069/oz hit back in 2020. It is strange to me because gold is supposed to be a very good inflation hedge, but the risks of inflation seem to be subsiding. The Wall Street Journal recently did an article on gold and they mentioned a gentleman who lost thousands of dollars in his retirement plan by betting on biotech shares in early 2021. He has now invested in gold and feels comfortable and says he can now sleep at night. It makes no sense to me why someone would do a risky investment in biotech and then turn around and put all their money into a single commodity such as gold. This is why the average investor only earns on average around 3% per year. During periods like this, people tend to forget when investing in gold you can still lose money. In fact, if we look at GLD which moves with the price of gold, in 2013 shares fell more than 28%. The 10-year average return on GLD is also extremely lackluster at just 3.48%. At the end of the day gold is a just a piece of metal that is only worth what the next person will pay for it. Ultimately, I would not be investing in gold at this time.   CPI The Consumer Price Index (CPI) continued to show positive signs in the month of July as the headline number of 3.2% was below expectations for 3.3%. Core CPI which excludes food and energy was still higher than the headline number at 4.7%, but it was the lowest reading since October 2021. Shelter continued to be a heavy weight on the report as prices were up 7.7% compared to last year. This increase in shelter costs accounted for more than 90% of the increase in the CPI report. Other areas that remained troublesome included motor vehicle insurance (+17.8%), motor vehicle maintenance and repair (+12.7%), and food away from home (+7.1%). Food at home was much less problematic as it was up just 3.6% compared to last year. Energy continued to be a major positive as prices were down 12.5% compared to last year and regular unleaded gasoline in particular was down 20.3%. Overall, I'd say this was a great report, but I will say oil prices have increased as of late and I do worry they could become problematic for inflation as a whole if they do not stabilize.   PPI The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed wholesale prices in July were up just 0.8% compared to last year. Some may point to the month over month gain of 0.3% being higher than expectations of 0.2% as a problem, but considering the year over year number is under 1% I still believe it's a good report. Looking at core PPI, which excludes food and energy, prices were up 2.4% compared to last year. This was tied for the lowest annual increase since January 2021. Services were a problem in the report rising 0.5% in the month. This was the largest gain since August 2022, but much of the increase came from a 7.6% surge in prices for portfolio management which likely can be attributed to the increase in stocks we have seen this year. There's nothing in this report that leads me to believe the Fed needs to continue on its rate hiking path.

印度舉行G20財長會議 IMF預估全年GDP成長2.8% 美國CPI、PPI雙雙降溫 ** 中國Q2 GDP成長7%**

CPI If I told you last year we would see inflation at 3%, would you believe it? In the month of June that is exactly what we saw as the CPI rose 0.2% compared to May and it was up just 3% compared to last June. Energy prices continued to be a major positive as they fell 16.7% compared to last year with unleaded regular gasoline falling 27.1%. Other areas of the economy also saw nice declines with airline fares falling 18.9%, major appliances were down 10.7%, and used cars and trucks saw a decline of 5.2%. Food still saw an increase of 5% in the month, but there was a substantial difference between food away from home as it was up 7.7% and food at home was only up 4.7%. Grocery price inflation saw a peak of around 14% last summer so prices have slowed quite substantially with products like eggs (-7.9%) and bacon (-10.1%) showing nice declines compared to last year. Core inflation which excludes food and energy still remained higher than most would like to see at 4.8%, but it did fall from last month's reading of 5.3% and it is well below the peak last year of 6.6%. As a reminder the headline CPI reached a peak of 9% last year. It is important to understand shelter prices continued to weigh on the report as they were up nearly 8% and accounted for approximately 70% of the monthly increase. I continue to believe shelter costs will decelerate substantially which would be a major benefit to both core and headline CPI. I think as we close at 2023 inflation will be a concern of the past.   PPI The Producer Price Index (PPI) was even better than the CPI report as it showed positive signs for cooling inflation. In the month of June, the PPI was up just 0.1% compared to last year. In June 2022, the PPI showed a huge increase of 11.2%. Energy prices provided a major benefit to the report, but even core PPI, which excludes food and energy, was up just 2.6% compared to last year. As I said after the CPI report, I just don't see inflation being a problem as we exit this year.   Real Estate Market In recent data from the National Association of Realtors it was found the nearly 40% of Americans between the ages of 25 and 44 who bought homes last year plan to stay in them for 16 years or more. This sounds problematic given the current lack of inventory, but over the next 5 years I believe many of these survey respondents will change their minds. This mainly stems from life changes like marriage, having kids, and even divorce. On the other side I do not believe interest rates will remain this high on mortgages and we could see rates settle around the 5% level. While I believe they will not fall back into 3% range, it is much easier to give up your 3% mortgage for a 5% mortgage instead of trading it in for a 7% mortgage, especially if you've outgrown your current residence. The real estate market is very strange right now, but I believe with time it will normalize.   AT&T AT&T has seen its stock price struggle over the last few years and it could get worse. On Monday, July 10 in the Wall Street Journal there was an article from their investigative reporting team titled “Telecom Giants Left Behind Miles of Toxic Lead Cables”. It was on the front page and two full pages in the first section discussing how AT&T and other telecom giants have left behind a network of cables covered in toxic lead that stretches across the United States under the water, in the soil, and on poles overhead. Unfortunately, I know what follows which will be a number of lawsuits from legal firms across the country. We believe over the next six months or so as the company defends itself against these lawsuits it probably will have to cut the dividend and there could be a decline of at least 20% or more in the stock price. This company had such a bright future in the next six months as other expenses were falling off and their cash flow would increase. We now see the same future for AT&T as what 3M has been going through over the last couple years with their stock price cut in half and they will have to pay out billions of dollars in settlements. In today's society, lawsuits continue to mount costing businesses of all sizes from small to large hundreds of billions of dollars in settlements and legal fees. Until there is more clarity on this situation I could not recommend a buy on this stock.

CPI and PPI both came in unders and we talk about what that means for everything. New RBA Guvnor and BAU is the soup de jour. Happy Bastille Day everyone.Also it China finally turning the corner?#china #india #investing #googleSponsored by Australian Mutual Funds Exchangewww.amfex.comSupport this show http://supporter.acast.com/the-bip-show. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

1. Last week, the major stock indexes pulled back a little from a very overbought condition. This week will be interesting as we get the CPI report on Wednesday and the PPI report on Thursday. Every trader and investor will be looking for signs of inflation. Remember, the FOMC (Fed) will hold their interest rate policy meeting on July 26th. As I have said before, the most important metric is going to be the reaction in the 2-year treasury note yield. Today, the 2year note yield is around 4.92%. Last week, this got above 5% and that spooked the markets as it indicates the Fed is behind the curve when it comes to hiking the fed funds rate. Every investor should keep a close eye on the 2 year yield. 2. Earnings season starts up later this week with JP Morgan Chase (JPM) and the many other financial stocks. Remember, my theory is that the rally from March has been because of the financial crisis. Obviously, liquidity programs by the central banks help to lift markets. 3. Gold and silver are flat today. Both were very choppy and range bound last week. There still looks like a potential bearish pattern is forming in the precious metals, but it wont take a lot to change that. I'm just continuing to let things unfold, but i'm itching to get back into silver related plays soon. 4. Bitcoin has been strong recently and that still remains the case. The commercial money has switched back to the long side so I'm continuing to give bitcoin an upside bias in the near term.This show is part of the Spreaker Prime Network, if you are interested in advertising on this podcast, contact us at https://www.spreaker.com/show/4295686/advertisement

US markets closed lower on the day and the week on Friday after non-farm payrolls data indicated that the Fed might raise rates at their forthcoming July meeting. Inflation data coming on Thursday and Friday will complete the final piece of the rate-hike puzzle. Meanwhile China's disappointing CPI/PPI data this morning has heightened expectations of more monetary policy support being required. As the Q2 earnings season is set to kick-off, hear what our Head of Technical Analysis, Mensur Pocinci, has to say about the prospects for the US equity and bond markets.00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:35 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)06:09 Technical analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)10:30 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.

HR3 Rush Kurt Rogers: Inflation , CPI , PPI, The FED, Mortgage Rates. Home Depreciation? 6-15-23 by John Rush

1. The CPI number was released yesterday. The market liked it and reacted with a rally. Today, the PPI number was released and it was again well received. Now later today, the FOMC will announce their interest rate policy for the US. This time around the Fed is expected to pause and keep the fed funds rate unchanged. This is already baked into the market but the verbiage could move markets. Either way, the Fed rarely surprises the investing community. 2. Healthcare stocks are getting hammered today after United Health announced higher health care costs at a conference. It's interesting how this news comes out during a quadruple witching options expiration week. Stocks such as UNH, CI, HUM are getting slammed. I actually bought more CVS Healthcare call options this morning. 3. Today is Whipsaw Wednesday. It's often a time when rallies will be sold off and sharp declines will see sharp bounces intra-day. Expect stocks to be all over the place. 4. Gold is catching a bid today after falling yesterday. Gold futures still remain above the $1940 level on the daily chart and that is the important support level to hold right now. A weekly close below that key level would likely start a further decline. 5. Bitcoin is holding up today trading higher by 0.50%. The popular crypto is hanging in there this week, but this week's close will tell me more. To its credit Bitcoin remains above the psychological 25K level.This show is part of the Spreaker Prime Network, if you are interested in advertising on this podcast, contact us at https://www.spreaker.com/show/4295686/advertisement

El S&P 500 viene de una racha de cuatro semanas de ganancias. Los próximos días ofrecerán un sinfín de pistas sobre el modo en que la Reserva Federal llevará a cabo el nuevo anuncio de las tasas en su intento por controlar la inflación que será anunciado el miércoles; por otra parte, el CPI de mayo, que se publicará el martes. $UBS $CS $NDAQ $ORCL $CCL $NIO $ILMN

CPI Headline CPI of 4.9% came in below expectations of 5.0% and registered the slowest growth since April 2021. It also marked the 10th consecutive month of slower growth since the report peaked in June 2022 at 9%. Areas that continued to see a growth in prices were food (+7.7%), motor vehicle insurance (+15.5%), transportation services (+11.0%), admissions which includes concerts, movies and theaters (+6.9%), and electricity (+8.4%). There continues to be more components that are registering declines compared to last year. Energy was a big one as it was down 5.1% as gas and oil prices fell from high prices last year. Gasoline in particular was down 12.2%. Other areas that saw declines included major appliances (-10.4%), used cars and trucks (-6.6%), and even airfares (-0.9%). The Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, did come in higher than the headline number at 5.5% but over 60% of that increase came from shelter costs which grew 8.1% compared to last year. If those shelter costs were removed from the report the Core CPI would have grown at just 3.7%. Overall, I continue to see inflation heading in the right direction as costs continue to decelerate.   PPI Big news on the Producer Price Index (PPI) as it came in with just a 2.3% increase in April. This was the lowest reading since January 2021, and it was well off the high of 11.3% in June 2022. This is so important because if businesses are not seeing costs increase as much, they should not need to increase prices as much for consumers to offset the costs. I really believe inflation will not be a problem as we exit 2023 and head into 2024.   Regional Banks The regional banks have really caused a lot of concern in the markets lately. Unfortunately, short sellers have stepped in and are magnifying movements of stock prices beyond belief. But if an investor looks at where some of these regional banks are trading, like Western Alliance at 2.3 times forward earnings or CoAmerica at 3.9 times forward earnings, it would appear that the worst is probably over. For the big banks, they have been beaten up somewhat as well, and are currently trading at 1.2 to 1.3 times tangible book value. If you back out the non-cash impact from potential bond portfolio losses, the price to tangible book value trades closer to one. The normal for big banks is more around two times tangible book value. For an investor looking down the road two or three years I think this is a good time to add some good bank positions to the portfolio after some strong research. I would also caution investors to be prepared for a bumpy ride for the next few months but if you wait and by the time everything looks good, you would've missed the opportunity.   Consumer Credit You may hear how terrifying it is that revolving consumer credit outstanding is at record highs and recently in February it was at $1.2 T. What you don't hear though is how that number relates as a percentage of disposable income. In fact, in the chart below you'll see revolving consumer credit outstanding as a percent of personal income was just 6.2% in February and is actually still below pre-covid levels. It's important to understand that when the price of assets and incomes rise so will costs and debt levels. The absolute level is not nearly as important as the relationship that the numbers have.

歡迎收聽5月10日世界苦茶節目，苦茶苦，世界更苦。 [ 欢迎在Patreon支持翻转电台 ]  https://www.patreon.com/flipradio  感谢大家，要記得敢於去相信，也敢於分享你的相信。

Segment 1: Jason Turner, Chief Investment Strategist for Wintrust Wealth Management, joins John to talk about the markets dropping today, how the Fed is likely to tackle inflation after CPI / PPI data, and the latest on the debt limit negotiations. Segment 2: Bree Fowler, Senior Writer, CNET, joins John to talk about Google’s new AI features, Twitter rolling […]

Moe and Tom discuss Friday's strong market rally, the continuing struggles of regional banks, Apple's bond issuance, Berkshire Hathaway's annual shareholder meeting recap, the debt ceiling debate, and CPI/PPI coming out this week.For information on how to join the Zoom calls live each morning at 8:30 EST, visit https://www.narwhalcapital.com/blog/daily-market-briefingsPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhalcapital.com/disclosure

CPI Headline CPI came in at 5% compared to last year, which was the lowest level since the May 2021 report and well off the June 2022 high of 9%. Some reasons for the slower gain include gasoline which was down 17.4%, used cars and trucks down 11.2%, televisions down 14%, and uncooked beef roasts down 4.4%. Areas that remain elevated include transportation services up 13.9% (Airfare was up 17.7%), electricity up 10.2%, and food was up 8.5%. The big problem in the report continues to be the shelter index which accounts for about 1/3 of CPI and rose 8.2%. Some people may point to a concern over core CPI, which takes out the volatile food and energy components, as it rose 5.6% compared to last year and was higher than February's reading of 5.5%. But looking closer at the numbers, the shelter index accounted for about 60% of the increase in core CPI. Excluding shelter, the CPI rose just 3.4% from a year ago. I continue to believe the shelter index will level off as we progress through the year and have a much smaller impact on CPI. Overall, I would say this inflation report was a major positive and should provide evidence to the Fed that a pause in rate hikes could make sense. PPI Huge news on the inflation fronts as the Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a month over month decline of 0.5% in the month of March. This was well below estimates for the index to be flat in the month. Looking at the 12-month change, the index showed an increase of just 2.7%. This was the smallest increase since January 2021 and is well off the high from last March of 11.7%. The Fed has pointed to concerns over services pricing, but this report also indicated that prices for services fell 0.3% in the month which was the largest decline since April 2020. With a report like this I really believe the Fed should consider not raising rates at the next meeting.  Retail Sales The headline retail sales numbers may concern some, but digging through the numbers they indicate exactly what we've been anticipating, a slowing economy not a troubled economy. The headlines read that retail sales fell 1% in the month, more than the estimate of a 0.5% decline but looking at the numbers compared to last March sales increased 2.9%. It's important to point out that this is not adjusted for inflation, which was 5% in the month of March. The biggest negative weight on the numbers was the decline of 14.2% at gas stations largely due to the decline in gas prices. If we exclude gas stations from retail sales, they would have been up 4.8% compared to March 2022. Other negatives included electronics and appliance stores which were down 10.3%, building material & garden equipment & supplies dealers were down 3.5%, furniture and home furnishings stores were down 2.4%, and clothing and clothing accessory stores were down 1.8%. The major gainers in the report were food services and drinking places which were up 13%, non-store retailers were up 12.3%, health and personal care stores were up 7.1%, and food and beverage stores were up 5.0%.  Real Estate Real estate transactions remain on the low side as housing prices are beginning to weaken. With the higher prices of homes and the higher interest rates many first-time buyers have been locked out of the housing market. The movement of the real estate market generally happens where people will trade up to perhaps a larger or more expensive home opening the lower priced homes for first time buyers. But with many of these homes the homeowners locked in mortgage rates in the 3% range, and they don't see the benefit of buying a more expensive home with mortgage rates double what they're paying now. I believe it will take years for the real estate market to adjust to a more normal market. 

Hosts: Ansel Lindner and Christian Keroles Special co-host: Nolan Bauerle, @countbtc Fed Watch is a macro podcast with a clear contrarian thesis of a deflationary breakdown of the financial system leading to bitcoin adoption. We question narratives and schools of thought, and try to form new understanding. Each episode we use current events to question mainstream and bitcoin narratives across the globe, with an emphasis on central banks and currencies.  (Find all associated charts and links at bitcoinandmarkets.com/fed136) In this episode, we are joined once again by Nolan Bauerle to bring you reporting on this crazy week in bitcoin and macro. Of course, we cover Credit Suisse, their long history of corruption and current crisis. Next, we tie this into the US banking crisis that started with FTX, to Silvergate, then Signature, with Silicon Valley Bank also failing along the way. Lastly, we discuss February's CPI and PPI out of the US to see if that can be added to an analysis of the global financial situation giving us a more clear picture of what is happening. Throughout the entire episode, I try to build a narrative that what we are seeing in the bank failures, bailouts, and CPI/PPI crashing is a deflationary story. This is a tale of credit tightness and collapse, bailouts notwithstanding. In this context, bailouts only confirm the dire state of the private financial system and lead to deeper tightness and stagnation. This episode goes perfectly in the entire multi-year theme of Fed Watch. While bitcoin is a hedge against inflation, we don't find ourselves in an inflationary scenario. What we are living through today is the end of a multi-decade inflationary credit bubble, and what do all bubbles eventually do? They bust. That will look like a monetary shortage, not a monetary abundance. In these credit bust situations, money without counterparty risk is a great advantage. I'm alluding to bitcoin here, as it is both a hedge against inflation and credit deflation. The great thing for bitcoin, as well, is it has a long way to go in its monetization, meaning its dollar value will expand greatly as it absorbs monetary functions.  As people are looking for a monetary alternative during periods of monetary shortage, it is an absolute advantage if that alternative asset is nascent and its value can expand dramatically as it is adopted. For instance, people that adopt gold in this role only expect perhaps a 5x upside, where bitcoin could see 100x. Thanks for joining us. If you are reading this, hit the like and subscribe button! Constant updates on bitcoin and macro Free weekly Bitcoin Fundamentals Report Find More and Follow Ansel Lindner On Twitter Christian Keroles On Twitter Nolan on Twitter Watch this Episode: YouTube ||  Rumble  Slide deck Why we should care about Credit Suisse via Axios History of Credit Suisse corruption Barney Frank interview with NYmag David Bailey tweet #1 David Bailey tweet #2 CPI PPI If you enjoy this content please LIKE, SUBSCRIBE, REVIEW on iTunes, and SHARE! Written by Ansel Lindner THIS EPISODE'S SPONSORS: Moon Mortgage  River Gordon Law  Bitcoin 2023 Miami  Bitcoin Magazine  Bitcoin Magazine Pro

Photo: No known restrictions on publication. @Batchelorshow #SmallBusinessAmerica: CPI/ PPI no longer rising but A long way to reversing. @GeneMarks  @Guardian @PhillyInquirer http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

The FTX drama continues. The crypto business' founder, Sam Bankman-Fried, has been arrested by Bahamian authorities after the United States Attorney for the Southern District of New York shared a sealed indictment with the Bahamian government, setting the stage for extradition and U.S. trial for the one time crypto billionaire at the heart of the cryptocurrency exchange's collapse. His arrest is being called the first concrete move by regulators to hold individuals accountable for the multibillion-dollar implosion of FTX last month.In today's episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied dig into this news, and speculate as to whether or not this move could signal the beginning of regulation for the crypto space.They discuss the possible upcoming pivots for the Fed in it's ongoing battle against inflation. Will they raise rates again? Will they hold? For how long?Chris and Saied look at Meta's $3 billion plan to decrease its office footprint, which includes unloading up to 544,000 square feet of offices in the Bay Area.⁠They also discuss a New York Federal Reserve survey indicating that consumers grew more optimistic about inflation in November amid expectations that both food and energy price increases would be less severe in the coming year.Join Chris and Saied for this eye-opening conversation.Enjoy!What You'll Learn in this Show:The arrest of former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried and what that means for the future cryptocurrency.Cross-collateralized cross-default loans - what they are, and why you should care.Why Redfin predicts that 2023 will bring the slowest housing market in a dozen years.Why affordability in the real estate space is going to continue to be an issue in the years to come.And so much more...Resources:"FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried arrested in the Bahamas after U.S. files criminal charges" (article from CNBC)"November PPI a bit hotter than expected" (article from Reuters)"Housing market to sink to a 12-year low in 2023, Redfin says" (TheRealDeal via Instagram)"Lennar offers to sell 5000 homes to big landlords" (TheRealDeal via Instagram)"Economists like Nouriel Roubini are starting to fret about a US debt crisis as interest rates rise – here's why it's the latest issue rattling markets" (article from Markets Insider)"Total Household Debt Reaches $16.51 trillion in Q3 2022; Mortgage and Auto Loan Originations Decline" (press release from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York)"Top economist Mohamed El-Erian says the Fed will face these two ‘unpleasant choices' next year" (article from Fortune)"Meta to ditch up to 544K sf of office space in Bay Area" (TheRealDeal via Instagram)"Consumers see...

欢迎收听雪球和喜马拉雅联合出品的财经有深度，雪球，国内领先的集投资交流交易一体的综合财富管理平台，聪明的投资者都在这里。听众朋友们大家好，我是主播匪石-34，今天分享的内容叫经济上过去的每次困难，如何渡过的，来自群兽中的一只猫。上证50，沪深300的整体业绩情况基本上大致代表了经济的整体运行情况。目前经济是真的遇到了困难。过去30年每一次遇到困难的时候，所有的解决手段核心都是一个“松”字。无一例外。1989年GDP增速从上年11.2%降到4.2%，固定资产投资增速从25%变成-7.2%。1990年3月宏观由紧缩变成刺激总需求。但1990年gdp增速3.9%，直到91年才变成9.3%。1998年洪水加金融危机，gdp增速7.8%，低于年初目标8%。CPI-0.8,PPI-4.1%,国家扩大内需，实行积极财政，取消贷款限额，三次下降存款利率。房地产、教育、医疗市场化改革。刺激措施在99年还在加大。gdp增速到2000年开始反弹到8.5%。2001年全球经济衰退，中国经济二次探底，出口增速下降到5%，CPI、PPI 变负，通缩。上市公司业绩负成长，除了新会计制度挤水分以外，还是因为宏观经济。但这次整体宏观经济比前两次好很多，贷款利率维持在96年以来的低水平，加入了WTO，2002年2月开始降息，后面经济开始上行。2008年金融危机，我国经济从第四季度感受到严重的冲击直到2009年2月，出口增速变成-25%。2008年11月，“四万亿”计划横空出世，保增长。2011年增速下降，2012年GDP增速逐季下滑。2011年2月下调存款准备金率，2012年两次下调。两次下调贷款基准利率。发改委审批通过了一堆投资项目。房地产行业也开始放松，销售面积增速从负增长到2013年2月的50%。2015年工业企业利润负成长，通缩，产能过剩，出口增速-2.9%。人行五次调整存款准备金率，降息，降低贷款基准利率，国企改革，“大众创新”，但很多东西还是值得尝试。2018年，几年前，大家应该都比较清楚。各项指标增速全面回落。我国加速与国外对接交流，A股加入MSCI指数，证监会放开外国人开A股账户，9月后的连续喊话，10月降准，成立纾困基金。虽然具体的手段可能不同，但本质上体现的都是一个“松”字，放开某些束缚，注入更多活力。当然，每一次行动和出成果之间总是需要一段时间。我们可以看到，基本上是需要一年，有时候两年。老巴都说过——你必须坚持足够的时间。要生一个婴儿,只能是一位女性怀胎十月之后的事,如果只有一个月,十位女性一起怀胎也没用。所以还是要有耐心，需要时间。有意思的是因为没有耐心，或者悲观，资本市场在流动性充裕的时候，即使经济基本面不好也会有不少人参与恶性炒作。他们用各种短期不能证伪的逻辑去制造各种美梦，比如用研发投入创造出的“市研率”，用机构化趋势讲出的“蓝筹永远涨”，用老龄化趋势说出的“医药永远牛”，以及最近的“新能源永远涨”。股市里总有很多可以“自圆其说”的逻辑，比如因为钱少，所以要集中力量炒大蓝筹。同样的，因为钱少，所以只能投小票，蓝筹炒不动。同一个前提可以得出相反的结果。这就是股市的自圆其说。这些炒作，最终的结果都是纸面富贵，太多人亏损地很惨。股市的走势和经济的走势不一定完全同步，但是大致上也还是较为匹配。经济不好的时候或者之前之后，股市也会有很不好的一段时间。最终随着经济上来，股市也会上来，并且会有补偿。最近的我们可以想想2017年和2019年。身处过程中还是会有压力的，这个时候需要看的远一些，看看历史，可以更有耐心一些。为什么会有补偿？因为那是对理性的奖赏。“你可以以更低的价格买入好资产，中国股市总是这样的机会”——芒格。股市的危与机，总是一体两面，A股波动大，情绪波动也强，对投资者的心性要求高一些，但同样对理性的奖赏也高一些。我们过去经济的发展也并不是说起来那么一帆风顺。事物总是在曲折中前进，股市的波动就更大了。回过头看轻松，你可能会说这些都是发展过程中的浪花，其实不是的，是因为我们开了上帝视角，已经知道了结果。我们可以去翻翻每一次低谷时候，人们的言论。每一次，从1989、1998直到2018，都还是有很多人甚至大部分人丧失信心，崩溃，夺路而逃，从而承受永不翻身的完全损失。每一次，人们都会说你没有乐观的条件，因为悲观的东西是实实在在在眼前的，乐观的东西却看不到。确实，每一次的gdp数据、cpi、ppi等等都能看到是不好的。乐观的东西是什么？是勤劳又对更好生活充满干劲和努力的人民，是我们30多年打下的经济基础以及还比较低的人均GDP水平，以及纠错制度。如果一个人在过去的30年中每一次困难都解决了，你是不是会相信这个人解决困难的能力？那为什么换个场景，就每次都要怀疑呢。一个平面的图形也有360度，一件事情，角度就更多了。如果你非要杠，总是能找到角度去“反驳”的，如同上面我们提到的自圆其说的例子一样。特别是在每一次困难的时候，不相信，被悲观抓住的总是大部分人，过去每一次我们在这种时刻分享的时候也总是被大规模攻击，但这不重要。投资中什么最重要——理性。50多年来，巴菲特一直强调。理性的人永远是很少数的，我们是分享给这些少数人。身处大时代的当下，越理性才可能过的越好。

Learn more about CI Futures here: http://completeintel.com/2022PromoIn this episode, we talked about the European drought — and looked at the cost, energy impacts, and industry impacts. We also talked about coal and discussed more broadly energy. But more specifically coal, and what will be some of the issues around it. How will the coal issues impact refineries and other downstream activities? Finally, we looked at inflation. It's been covered to death last week — CPI PPI — but we also put a few words in on it. Key themes 1. Europe drought: Cost, energy & industry impact 2. Coal & energy 3. Inflation 4. What's ahead for next week? —————————————————————-This is the 30th episode of The Week Ahead, where experts talk about the week that just happened and what will most likely happen in the coming week. Follow The Week Ahead panel on Twitter: Tony: https://twitter.com/TonyNashNerdAlbert: https://twitter.com/amlivemon/ Tracy: https://twitter.com/chigrl Time Stamps0:00 Start 0:49 Key themes for this Week Ahead 2:16 Europe drought: containers on the Rhine 4:22 How hot is Europe compared to other places? 5:25 How is France doing? 6:02 Europe's embargo of Russian coal – will it make things worse? 7:48 The beneficiaries of Europe's Russian coal embargo 9:32 Where's most of the coal coming from? 10:00 Rhine River and how it affects coal and crude transport 13:00 Is there a silver lining in what's happening in Europe? 14:16 How will the happenings in Europe impact politics in the region? 15:36 How you should be playing European equities? 16:40 Have we hit the peak inflation? 20:22 Will there be a Feb pivot? 21:17 What's for the week ahead? Listen to the podcast version on Watch this episode on Youtube: https://youtu.be/UsilTyha_FM

决定物价的四大供求关系因素，“需求因素”和“供应链因素”已经消失，地缘政治虽无法消失，但影响正边际缓和，唯一长期存在的通胀因素是“能源结构”，所以四个供求因素只剩下“一个半”。通胀的物价部分实际上从年初开始就在缓和，为什么从数字上感觉不到呢？因为货币因素造成的“泡沫视觉”。大宗商品的资产价格的上涨既包括了“货币税”也包括“征税凭证”的上涨，而过高的通胀，主要是“征税凭证”价格暴涨，即我们常说的“资产泡沫”。所以，通胀是“供求关系搭台，货币现象唱戏”，戏总比舞台更引人注目，舞台虽然塌了一半，戏还在唱，入戏过深。而“货币因素”正在通过这一轮快速加息来解决，“征税凭证”价格没有独立性，完全依附于“货币税”，只要“货币税”降低，资产泡沫破灭，只在顷刻之间。大宗商品已经开始分化，与生产端关系更密切的铜价，在4月已结束牛市，到6月末已进入熊市；而油价与消费端的关系更密切，加上能源供给结构的制约，可能将持续在高位再唱一年“独角戏”——但这已经不是通胀了。通胀不会很快退潮，但会慢慢降下来，美国核心CPI近一年四次跳涨的时间点分别在21年7月和10月、22年1月和3月，这也意味着从7月起，每月公布的通胀率很难大幅增加。实际上，通胀原因并不重要，治通胀从来不是治病，而是缓解症状，不管什么原因，只需要对着CPI、PPI这些“症状”下药，就好像我们这一轮经济下行的原因难道是基建量不足吗？但政府能拿出来的手段还是基建，也确实可以“稳经济”。很多投资者还会担心出现类似70年代的滞胀，我认为没有可比性。70年代的“滞”并不是真的经济停止增长，70年代实际GDP平均增速在3.2%，远高于近十年2%的增速，只是与60年代的4.5%的高增速相比，人们无法接受。70年代最大的问题是GDP在-0.5%到5.6%之间大幅波动，叠加了两次持续高通胀，这种大幅波动，正是因为当时的政府对货币政策工具运用不够熟练，70年代前期加息不够坚决，后期降息不够果断——今天美联储的各种工具运用纯熟，都是建立在之前几十年经验之上。正因为汲取了70年代的教训，这一次加息周期，美联储的态度才非常坚决，“长痛不如短痛”，以短期经济衰退的代价换取早日进入通胀拐点，市场的预期就会转向新的降息周期，资产价格就能真正触底。分析了美国的通胀，最后还是要回到对A股的影响上。4、中美利率我之前说的：中美相反的利率周期，作用的落点不同，国内降息增加A股的流动性，美国加息导致A股的风险偏好下降。这个判断的结果是已经发生的，而且很快将结束，加息的影响前文说过了，流动性的影响在这轮强劲的反弹中也释放得相当充分了，接下来，就取决于各种因素的边际变化。首先是国内的“宽货币”空间没有了，接下来会进入“中性货币”。国内之前能降息，是因为前两年没有跟着美国降，所以有空间。但这次美国加息75BP后，美国联邦基金利率就加到了1.5~1.75%，与这个利率对应的是我们的隔夜利率，在1.5%左右，已经持平或倒挂了，对汇率造成很大压力。更大的问题是，他们7月份再加息50~75个BP，9月再加息，那我们最迟9月也要加息，否则利差太大了。利差大的后果，可以看一看日本，维持低利率的代价是日元大幅贬值、贸易逆差和国内高通胀。其次是支持这两年经济强劲增长的出口因素也可能消失。前面还没有提到“缩表”，降息是价格工具，用价格信号压制需求，而缩表是量的工具，降低经济动作中的货币，叠加欧美生产的恢复，其中一个最直接的作用就是降低全球贸易额，日本、韩国的出口都处于下行趋势中，我们的出口，在6月疫情的扰动消失后，也很难独善其身。留给我们“稳增长”的时间窗口只有三个月。另一个种可能，如果美国的通胀能快速降下来，那对货币政策的压力就没那么大，但又有另一个隐患——美国重建供应链。美国近几年的一系列政策，都在致力于将供给链慢慢从中国转移，但这个重建供应链必然付出通胀的代价，因为我们近二十年向美国输出的通缩，是美国能长期维持低利率的重要原因。在高通胀下，这一进程不但被搁置，而且不得不更依赖中国供应链，可如果通胀因素消失，这一进程又会加快，对出口产生不利的影响。总体上看，美元作为国际货币的特点，导致每一次加息，都会扰乱其他国家的货币政策，每次都会拿出一个国家的经济出来“杀了祭天”，以平息周期，而中国凭借巨大的内需体量和半封闭的金融体系，每一次都能逃出“魔掌”，甚至抢在美国之前收割其他国家的“韭菜”。这一次还能否像以前那么幸运？有更多的不确定因素，基建地产目前发力都很一般，那就需要消费超常规发力，要下决心破除一切阻碍消费的因素，体制上的、政策上的，思想观念上的，不要再说什么“全体发钱等于没有发钱”一类的话，但这个话题无法在当前的舆论环境下展开，也就只能点到为止了。加息可以让资产泡沫破裂，同样，降息周期中的资产价格上升，也会创造“财富效应”——中产阶段因为资产的升值而觉得自己很有钱，所以增加消费，富人和企业则增加投资，国家趁势支持中小企业创新创业，货币快速流转，乘数效应充分发挥，从而让经济更繁荣。“降息——通胀——加息——结束通胀”，通过一轮完整的货币政策，富人手中的“征税凭证”坐了一轮过山车，贪婪者破产，新富崛起。

(6/14/22) Markets technically enter bear territory, but a longer perspective belies the angst; gauging the markets' response to inflation (which will reverse); what the Fed Whisper says about a 75-bp rate hike; the faster the Fed raises rates, the higher the volatility; CPI, PPI, or PCE: What's the best measure of inflation? When will inflation end? Senior gifts; stock buy-back blackout period; Lance's Narci-drone; the love affair w Cryptocurrency: The Thrill is Gone. SEG-1: Markets "Technically" Enter Bear Territory SEG-2: What the Fed Whisperer Says About Interest Rates SEG-3: CPI, PPI, & PCE: Measuring Inflation SEG-4: How Stock Buy-back Blackout Impacts Markets Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_YO9VSoXnZ4&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2801s -------- Our Latest "Three Minutes on Markets & Money: Should You Buy the Rip?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hQKHViTPWAg&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 -------- Our previous show, "Consumer Sentiment at Lower Levels Now than in Financial Crisis," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cSFzZvG4IW8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Articles mentioned in this podcast: "The Consumer is Getting Squeezed:" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/the-consumer-is-getting-squeezed InvestorProtection.org -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #Inflation #CPI #FederalReserve #Gasoline #PPI #PCE #FedWhisperer #Markets #Money #investing

(6/14/22) Markets technically enter bear territory, but a longer perspective belies the angst; gauging the markets' response to inflation (which will reverse); what the Fed Whisper says about a 75-bp rate hike; the faster the Fed raises rates, the higher the volatility; CPI, PPI, or PCE: What's the best measure of inflation? When will inflation end? Senior gifts; stock buy-back blackout period; Lance's Narci-drone; the love affair w Cryptocurrency: The Thrill is Gone. SEG-1: Markets "Technically" Enter Bear Territory SEG-2: What the Fed Whisperer Says About Interest Rates SEG-3: CPI, PPI, & PCE: Measuring Inflation SEG-4: How Stock Buy-back Blackout Impacts Markets Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_YO9VSoXnZ4&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2801s -------- Our Latest "Three Minutes on Markets & Money: Should You Buy the Rip?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hQKHViTPWAg&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 -------- Our previous show, "Consumer Sentiment at Lower Levels Now than in Financial Crisis," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cSFzZvG4IW8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Articles mentioned in this podcast: "The Consumer is Getting Squeezed:" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/the-consumer-is-getting-squeezed InvestorProtection.org -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #Inflation #CPI #FederalReserve #Gasoline #PPI #PCE #FedWhisperer #Markets #Money #investing