Podcasts about gneiting

17 01 2025 01 Ancho Perfil Intendente De Carmen Del Paraná, Germán Gneiting by ABC Color

Send us a Text Message.In this PART TWO of Rowan Gneiting's episode from last week, he continues to share his wisdom of what it takes to be successful in life. I've included a few gems from this episode that are quite profound for a 19 year old... "It's not about what other people make you do, if you do something that's self-motivated, you're going to see way more success""Anybody can go anywhere that they want""Hard work beats talent, when talent isn't hard working""It's important to never be satisfied""As you're consistent, and you're chipping away at something, eventually you're going to make a great sculpture""You have to pick and choose what mindset you want to have""If you're 1% better everyday, as a year passes, your 365% better than you used to be""Be proud of your victories, at the end of the day, look back and if you're proud of yourself, that's a good day; if you're not proud of yourself, then make a change tomorrow""If you treat failure like a failure, it's what it's going to be, if you treat failure like a lesson, that's what it's going to be"

Send us a Text Message.In part one of this episode, 19 year old Rowen Gneiting shares his story about his journey to becoming a champion wrestler. This sport didn't come easy for him in the beginning, having to overcome numerous insurmountable hurdles along the way before he found success. This is a story of determination, hard work and commitment like you've never heard before. In Rowen's words, "I lost twenty in a row and all I knew was losing...if you only know how it feels to lose, you're just gonna feel like a loser... I didn't believe in myself... you can't borrow a testimony from somebody else, you have to be the one to believe." (STAY TUNED FOR PART TWO!)

Send us a Text Message.Once again we are privileged to hear, feel, and simultaneously absorb the positive vibes that so readily flows from this philosophical giant of a man, Layne Gneiting. He has the ability to help us view life in a way that helps us visualize our own true potential. He is a life coach for those of us seeking to break free from the chains that are holding us from tapping into the greatness that lies within each of us. You won't regret tuning into this special episode! 

Today we are joined by Layne Gneiting. Layne is just your average guy.  His family's a tad bigger than most (he's got 8 kids), but he lives in a snug 1,800 square foot home in the heart of suburbia, and still wakes up in a panic most Friday mornings when the garbage truck rumbles down the street. However, Layne has a secret identity. Twice a year he straps on his super suit—a bicycle jersey—and sweeps executives and doctors into the biggest adventure of their lives.   It came from his biggest kick in the butt: cycling across America.  Now Layne's guided teams (or gone alone) by bike through 49 countries, and this year he'll finally publish his stories about them.  [Feb 12, 2024]   00:00 - Intro 00:18 - Intro Links -          Social-Engineer.com - http://www.social-engineer.com/ -          Managed Voice Phishing - https://www.social-engineer.com/services/vishing-service/ -          Managed Email Phishing - https://www.social-engineer.com/services/se-phishing-service/ -          Adversarial Simulations - https://www.social-engineer.com/services/social-engineering-penetration-test/ -          Social-Engineer channel on SLACK - https://social-engineering-hq.slack.com/ssb -          CLUTCH - http://www.pro-rock.com/ -          innocentlivesfoundation.org - http://www.innocentlivesfoundation.org/ 03:04 - Layne Gneiting Intro 04:04 - Anything is Possible 06:48 - The Road Less Traveled 07:57 - Summer Break 08:42 - Morning Commute 09:42 -  Growth X Bazillion 10:56 - The Details 12:13 - Eight is Enough 15:02 - Wanderlust 16:33 - How to Broaden 19:55 - Go With the Flow 22:38 - Safety First 25:40 - Get With the Program 26:54 - It's About the Adventure 28:09 - Find Layne Gneiting online -          LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/wayofthehero/ -          Website: wayofthehero.com 28:52 - Coming Up Next! 30:51 - Mentors -          Odds Bodkin 32:14 - Book Recommendations -          The Alchemist - Paulo Coelho -          The King of Attolia - Megan Whalen Turner 34:01 - Guest Wrap Up & Outro -          www.social-engineer.com -          www.innocentlivesfoundation.org

I can think of three words that in my opinion best describe Layne Gneiting... Motivated, enthusiastic, dynamic! In this episode Layne talks about how humans have the innate ability to stretch physically, emotionally, and spiritually. This is the second time Layne has been a guest on my podcast, and he always lifts my spirits and puts a smile on my face when I listen to him share his inspiring messages of living life to the fullest, reaching our divine potential, and not quitting when times get difficult. "Your soul will expand through the process and you're going to become somebody different then you were when you started." After listening to this episode, you will be motivated to do more, to be better, and to work harder. "What was the ceiling is now the floor, and now [we] can continue to rise." 

In this episode of the Closing Table Podcast, we are joined by Matt Gneiting, the founder and CEO of Gneiting Capital, a financial firm that offers investment management services. He shares his tips and advice for someone facing the current market, and some things he has learned over the course of his career.   Matt also dives into his experience with ProDeal, including how it has allowed his firm to manage the intricacies of multiple properties. He also shares how his team has been able to sync ProDeal with their existing systems to become more organized and efficient.   Matt has over two decades of experience in the financial industry and has honed his expertise in building investment portfolios that generate strong returns for his clients. At Gneiting Capital, he leads a team of professionals who employ a disciplined approach to investing and prioritizing client relationships.    What we discuss: 00:01:43: Tips and advice for somebody facing the current market 00:07:44: What would Matt change or do again in his career? 00:11:22: The fence of indecision  00:14:39: What platforms was Matt's firm using before ProDeal? 00:17:57: Unique features that ProDeal offers  00:21:07: The primary benefit of incorporating ProDeal, according to Matt  00:23:05: Matt's three tips for finding opportunities Get 30 days free of ProDeal here. Be sure to follow us on LinkedIn.  

There are some times that we simply need to take a step back and listen to what we're feeling and how we're looking at life if we really want to get ahead. It's when we completely ignore these thoughts and feelings that we end up getting reckless and stop thinking straight as my guest did before he started listening to what was going on inside. About my guest: Layne Gneiting has lived two lives. In his 'first life,' he was angry, entitled, addicted, and trapped. Cycling home at night from grad school he played Russian roulette with traffic lights, risking collision to end the pain. Then he took a wild adventure and became alive again. Since then he's cycled 49 countries, stayed with complete strangers, racked up hundreds of stories, and helped clients “reshape their lives” through what they call “an immersive adventure of awakening.” Connect with Layne on Facebook, LinkedIn and on the web at https://wayofthehero.com

Are you up for an Adventure? Quit spending your life hiding behind backup plans. Trust your gut and go forward! Join me next week for an Adventure like never before on Marketing with Russ…aka #RussSelfie, Episode 283 9 February, Thursday, 8am PST Featuring Layne Gneiting Layne, from Greater Phoenix Area, is CEO and Adventure Strategist – Way of Hero, designing and leading adventures that drive innovation, develop talent, and transform leaders. While chasing a PhD, Layne felt something die inside, so he went on a wild adventure and it came alive again. Connect with Layne: LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/wayofthehero Website: wayofthehero.com Email: guide@wayofthehero.com Connect with Russ: LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/russhedge/ Website: russhedge.com Schedule on calendar: russhedge.com/contact #adventure #innovation #transformation #tripadvisor #connection #inspiration #marketing #InspirationSpecialist #Monday

We've got a new Ash in town. We're joined by Freshman OH Ashley Gneiting. We talk about coming from a family of athletes (some former Wildcats included) and how this young team is learning together.Then, we break down last week's matches against Sac State and Portland State at #ClubSwenson. A stunning sweep and stinging sweep.Finally, we take a look at this week's road trip up to Montana to face the Griz and the Bobcats.Don't forget to follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram or join the Wildcat Fans FB group.

In this episode, we run through all the business tools and resources you need to grow your business with MetaPWR. You'll learn about the Digital Marketing Kit (DMK), the Empowered Success Webinar with Justin Harrison, and the brand new MetaPWR training course. These statements have not been evaluated by the Food and Drug Administration. These products are not intended to diagnose, treat, cure, or prevent any diseases.

May 6th, 2021 started out as just another ordinary day at Rigby Middle School, that is until gun shots rang out in the hallway. A young girl had  brought a gun to school and within minutes had shot and wounded several individuals. Krista Gneiting, a math teacher, shares her account of what happened and  how she was able to stay calm and take the gun away from the young girl. In Krista's words.. "my first impression when I saw her was that she's someones little girl;" "I thought... even if she shoots me, as long as I get the gun I don't care.. I just wanna get the gun so that no other kids get shot." 

***US Nationals this Saturday, April 23rd on Youtube! 10-4 MDT!*** On the eve of the National Championships, Mak and Jake are joined by the legendary Kelly Gneiting to talk about what to look for this weekend and hid journey in sumo so far. Theme music by David Hall via SoundCloud

”The detour is the path. Be willing to be flexible, agile and pivot because a lot of times the deepest most profound lessons we need to learn aren't on the path we think we need to go.” - Layne Gneiting Leadership Professor and Global Cyclist, Layne Gneiting joins us this week on the Shadows Podcast and encourages our listeners to pursue your dreams. You can check out this episode at www.theshadowspodcast.com or https://linktr.ee/ShadowsPodcast Layne discusses how he went from reading folk tales in his parents library on a farm in Idaho to becoming a global cyclist and exploring the world. With a wife, 7 kids, a steady job, mortgage, and student debt, Layne decided to head out on the open roads for 3 months and cycle from the western tip of Washington to the eastern tip of Maine. He also discusses his solo trip from Portugal to Rome. Layne has plans to cycle from China to Turkey and Malta to Norway. If you want to join Layne on the open roads go check out all the amazing courses they have to offer at www.wayofthehero.com --- Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/shadows-podcast/support

Layne Gneiting helps people excel through adventure. He teaches leadership at ASU, and runs his own leadership development company. As part of his course Layne has led groups by bicycle through Europe, Iceland, New Zealand, and recently India. His lifetime aim is to cycle every country in the world. His website is www.wayofthehero.com

Some people give up hope in the face of traumatic personal events but my guest Nicole Gneiting has fought the good fight and persevered successfully.  After being diagnosed with head and neck cancer in her 20s and given a 50% chance of survival, she chose to undergo hours of surgery and then rely on her faith for recovery.  She became cancer free but then faced another traumatic event with her son's near-drowning incident.  She began to suffer anxiety around the fear of facing additional health issues but started a journey with Christian mindfulness to bring peace.  She has developed an extremely popular website – mindfulhome.net – where she shares organizational, Christian mindfulness, and a variety of other tips to help us become better homemakers and have a thriving home life. Website: www.mindfulhome.netInstagram: @mindful_home_

In this episode Jose and Joe had the opportunity to speak with Dr. Layne “Exciting” Gneiting an entrepreneur that helps leaders use adventure to grow innovative teams that accelerate business. During their discussion Dr. Gneiting describes how he was able to “cycle” through a rut by pursuing his dream and overcoming societies acceptable actions. We learned a lot from this episode and know you will to, enjoy! Dr. Gneiting's Book Recommendations: Endurance: Shackleton's Incredible Voyage – Alfred Lansing: https://amzn.to/37flJ0N Follow Dr. Gneiting here: Website: https://wayofthehero.com LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/wayofthehero

Layne Gneiting has cycled 38 countries, led bicycle treks through 18 countries, dream-managed for a multi-million dollar company, and taught (and currently teaches) Leadership and Integrative Thinking at Arizona State University. 11 years ago, Layne did a coast-to-coast bicycle trip with his family and opened up horizons for himself. Today he merges principles of leadership with cycling in various places throughout the world, packing life experiences into 11 days to create the conditions of change. David Fielding is a stake president in Indiana. His brother encouraged him to join one of Layne's cycling trips and he finally agreed and arranged to go with the group to Spain. What he learned in his preparation and adventure there transformed him and his approach to leadership. Highlights 5:35 What Layne’s cycling trips do for leaders 8:30 How David got involved in this trip to Spain 12:20 Learning happens in action, in the body Seven Principles 15:15 Principle 1: Vision How vision was part of Layne’s experience biking across America It begins with determining what you truly desire 20:30 David’s experiences training for the trip and how it created his vision 29:20 The difference between vision and goals 30:50 People can’t walk in a straight line without vision 33:25 Principle 2: Risk Rest/play and the essence of creation: lessons learned off the planned path 39:20 David’s elders quorum experience following Hurricane Katrina 42:00 Rejection therapy 45:20 Principle 3: Simplification leading to flow Getting ego, plans, and control out of the way 48:20 David’s trek experience with pondering and journaling alone 53:20 Principle 4: Flow Creating flow through journaling; writing by the Spirit 56:20 Principle 5: Endurance Partnering with the mountain and harmonizing instead of slogging it out to the end 1:00:40 David’s trek experience with resistance and choosing the hills 1:05:20 Principle 6: Fusion “Every horizon bears a thread of gold”: all perspectives have value and inform ours; being willing to not be quiet 1:08:20 President Eyring’s observations about how the apostles counsel and debate in meetings 1:12:45 “If we are united, we all things can do” 1:14:40 Principle 7: Compassion Compassion is inclusion: reach out and include people in genuine, validating ways 1:16:55 David’s experience learning compassion and openness from a family who took them in 1:22:30 Changes in David’s leadership after his experience on the trek through Spain “We are only going to pass this way once” 1:26:20 Creating your own experience: GUIDE (Generative - Unpredictable - Immersive - Daring - Enticing) 1:28:00 How these experiences have made both Layne and David better disciples of Jesus Christ Links wayofthehero.com Zen in the Art of Archery, by Eugen Herrigel Pres Eyring's observations about meetings: News Conference | Summary Article

It seems like there are thousands of financial advisors in every city you go to. How do you find one that can really help you and when does it make sense to invest. We cover all of that with a Certified Financial Planner, Reese Gneiting. He can be reached at (702) 341-2040.

Wer anheuern muss ist auf der falschen Fährte. Dr. Philipp Gneiting von Daimler berichtet über Startup Autobahn, einer Innovationsplattform für Entrepreneure aus dem Mobilitätsbereich. Lernen Sie spannende Details über eine Ausgründung, die der Startup-Flaute in Stuttgart entgegen wirkt. Nora Hansen interviewt jede Woche Menschen, die tagtäglich mit der Entwicklung von Geschäftsmodellen zu tun haben. Wenn Sie C-Level oder im Innovationsmanagement tätig sind, dann ist dieser Podcast genau das Richtige für Sie. Unser Extra für Sie: Durch stetige Geschäftsmodellinnovation sichern Sie sich Wettbewerbsvorteile und nutzen Trends voll aus. Damit wächst Ihr Unternehmen gesund. Wenn Sie regelmäßig erfolgreich im Unternehmen Innovationen auf den Markt bringen möchten, hilft Ihnen unser Innovation Ecosystem Canvas. Mit dem kostenlosen Innovation Ecosystem Canvas bilden Sie zügig ab, wie es um das Innovationsmanagement in Ihrem Unternehmen bestellt ist, wo Sie bereits gut sind und wo es Lücken zu schließen gibt. Laden Sie den Canvas hier herunter. Vollständiges Transkript  Nora Hansen: Herzlich willkommen zum Business Model Innovation Talk von Gründerschiff, dem Podcast für C-Levels und Innovationsmanager. Ich bin Nora und sorge dafür, dass ihr neue Strategien, erprobte Methoden und wertvolle Erfahrungen rund um das Thema Geschäftsmodellinnovation zu hören bekommt. Viel Spaß beim Zuhören! Hallo und herzlich willkommen zur heutigen Folge. Heute haben wir Doktor Philipp Gneiting zu Gast, er ist von Daimler und dort der Head of Open Innovation. Schön, dass du heute da bist, Philipp! Hallo!  Dr. Philipp Gneiting: Hallo! Schönen Tag!  Nora Hansen: Ich habe dich gerade ganz, ganz grob mal vorgestellt, aber das hilft natürlich jetzt den Hörern nicht so wirklich was du machst. Erkläre doch mal, jetzt nicht mega ausschweifend, aber so ganz kurz zusammengefasst, was denn eigentlich dein Job ist bei Daimler. In welchen Bereichen du arbeitest, wie lange du schon da bist, ganz kurz so ein bisschen deine Geschichte.  Startups, die die Definition von Mobilität verändern wollen  Dr. Philipp Gneiting: Sehr gerne! Also Open Innovation, was bedeutet: ganz klar die Suche, Ideen von draußen zu identifizieren, und mit draußen meine ich alles außerhalb von Daimler, und das innen anzudocken, zu bewerten, ob wir das für Daimler, im Sinne Innovation in irgendeiner Weise verwenden können. Also meine Augen richten sich nach draußen. Ich mache das aus der Konzernforschung heraus. Und das sagt auch ein bisschen für wen ich und mit wem ich arbeite, ich arbeite für den Gesamtkonzern. Und wer Daimler kennt, wir haben die Fahrzeuge, wir haben Busse, wir haben aber auch Mobilitätslösungen und so weiter, und ich darf hier mit allen zusammenarbeiten, was ein super, super breites und sehr diverses Feld ist. Aber das trifft sich gut, weil die Startups, mit denen wir hauptsächlich draußen oder extern arbeiten, sind auch extrem unterschiedlich aufgestellt.  Nora Hansen: Dann ist es ja eigentlich ganz hilfreich, wenn du da sozusagen Einblick in alles hast, oder?  Dr. Philipp Gneiting: Absolut. Es ist ein großer Topf, aber es ist ziemlich viel drin.  Nora Hansen: Jetzt hast du gerade gesagt, dass ihr mit Startups zusammenarbeitet. Arbeitet ihr nur mit welchen zusammen, die in komplett ein und derselben Branche sind, also nur mit Mobilität, Autobussen, wie auch immer?  Dr. Philipp Gne

Renae interviews the Gneiting family and learns about their Rigby legacy as well as how they make lives more beautiful. 

Stephan Hemri hat an der ETH in Zürich einen Bachelorstudiengang Umweltwissenschaften absolviert und sein Studium mit einem Master in Statistik abgerundet. Seine Masterarbeit entstand an der Eidgenössischen Forschungsanstalt für Wald, Schnee und Landschaft (WSL). Hierbei hat er auch statistisches Postprocessing kennengelernt. Mit diesem Wissen und dem vorhandenen Interesse übernahm er ein Promotionsthema von Tilmann Gneitling am Lehrstuhl für Computational Statstics an der KIT-Fakultät für Mathematik und am Heidelberger Institut für Theoretische Studien. Zu den Höhepunkten dieser Zeit zählt er die vier Monate, die er am Europäischen Wetterzentrum (Zentrum für Mittelfristprognose) in Reading mitforschen konnte. Schon seit langem werden für die Wettervorhersage numerische Modelle eingesetzt. Dabei werden Größen wie zum Beispiel Temperatur und Niederschlag auf einem globalen 3-dimensionale Gitter durch das Lösen von großen gekoppelten und nichtlinearen Gleichungssystemen bestimmt, die aus physikalischen Modellen hergeleitet sind, nach denen sich Luftmassen und Wasser in der Atmosphäre in etwa bewegen und dabei unser Wetter erzeugen. Ebenso wichtig - wenn auch weniger bekannt - sind hydrologische Vorhersagen zu Pegelständen an Flüssen, die mit ähnlichen Methoden für einige Zeit im voraus berechnet werden. Zu Beginn waren die damit verbundenen Rechnungen rein deterministisch, was den großen Nachteil hatte, dass die Ergebnisse der Modellläufe nichts über Unsicherheiten der Vorhersage aussagen konnten. Eine Idee, um Ungenauigkeiten der Modellrechnungen zu bestimmen, ist zu Ensemblevorhersagen überzugehen. Das heißt, man berechnet nicht nur eine Vorhersage, sondern mehrere Modelläufe, jeweils zu abgeänderten (gestörten) Anfangsbedingungen oder mit verschiedenen Modellen, um zu sehen, wie stark sie sich in den Ergebnissen unterscheiden. Sind sich die verschiedenen Rechnungen weitestgehend einig, ist die Vorhersage recht sicher zutreffend. Weichen sie stark voneinander ab, sind sie entsprechend wenig sicher. Die Datenlage in der Wettervorhersage ist sehr gut. Insofern, kann man natürlich im Nachgang immer abgleichen, inwiefern Vorhersagen eingetroffen sind und dies zur Verbesserung der Modelle benutzen. Aber trotzdem bleiben konkrete Aussagen wie z.B. Hochwasservorhersagen oder Vorhersagen zu Pegeln anhand von Niederschlags-Daten sehr schwierig, weil die Modelle nicht ausgereift sind und die Verbesserung nicht auf der Hand liegt. Zum Beispiel am Europäischen Wetterzentrum in Reading ist derzeit ein Ensemble bestehend aus 51 Modellenvarianten verfügbar. Zusammen mit einem deterministischen Modell höherer Auflösung, führt dies zu einem recht großen Ensemble von Vorhersagen. In der statistischen Nachbearbeitung (dem Postprocessing) wird vor allem nach systematischen Fehlern Ausschau gehalten. Dabei werden bedingte Wahrscheinlichkeits-Vorhersagen auf das Ensemble bezogen und parametrische Dichtefunktionen erzeugt. Als Trainingsperiode werden dabei z.B. die letzten 30 Tage gewählt. Bei hydrologischen Abschätzungen sind jahreszeitliche Trainingsperioden (gleiche Jahreszeiten, aber andere Jahre) häufig sehr hilfreich. Dieses Vorgehen führt in der Regel zu einer besseren Schätzung des zukünftigen Wetters und Pegelständen. Für die Temperatur kann man sich das Vorgehen am einfachsten vorstellen: Es gibt einen Ensemble-Mittelwert, dessen Fehler in etwa normalverteilt ist. Bei der Nachbearbeitung wird z.B. der Mittelwert-Parameter an den Mittelwert des Ensembles in linearer Weise angepasst. Auch die Varianz ist in erster Näherung eine lineare Funktion der Varianz des Ensembles. Das ist ein sehr einfaches Modell, aber schon hilfreich. Zwei grundlegende Ideen gehen in der Parameterschätzung ein. Zum einen nichthomogene Regression, die gut verstanden aber nicht so flexibel ist - zum anderen Baysean Model averaging. Über allen statistischen Verfahren und Verbesserungen bleibt jedoch auch die Forderung, dass die Nutzbarkeit der Ergebnisse für den Endnutzer gegeben sein muss. Deshalb wird - gerade bei Wasserstandsvorhersagen - manchmal dann doch nur ein zu erwartender Pegelstand übermittelt ohne alle im Prozess gewonnenen Erkenntnisse über mögliche Abweichungen von diesem approximativen Wert mitzuteilen. Literatur und weiterführende Informationen Cloke, H. L. and F. Pappenberger (2009). Ensemble flood forecasting: a review. Journal of Hydrology 375, 613--626. Gneiting, T., A. E. Raftery, A. H. Westveld, and T. Goldman (2005). Calibrated probabilistic forecasting using ensemble model output statistics and minimum CRPS estimation. Monthly Weather Review 133, 1098--1118. Raftery, A. E., T. Gneiting, F. Balabdoui, and M. Polakowski (2005). Using Bayesian model averaging to calibrate forecast ensembles, Monthly Weather Review 133, 1155--1174. Thorarinsdottir, T. L. and T. Gneiting (2010). Probabilistic forecasts of wind speed: ensemble model output statistics by using heteroscedastic censored regression, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society (Series A) 173, 371--388.

The Total Tutor Neil Haley will interview Sumo Wrestler Kelly Gneiting. Kelly Gneiting of northeastern Arizona won three sumo wrestling National Championship titles in the US between 2005 and 2007, and even competed in Japan in 2006, where he placed 5th place in the World Sumo Championship. Kelly Gneiting broke the Guinness World Record for "Heaviest Person to Complete a Marathon" by crossing the finish at the Los Angeles Marathon on Sunday. The former U.S. sumo champion, who weighed in at Dodger Stadium on Sunday morning at exactly 400 pounds, finished the race in 9 hours, 48 minutes and 42 seconds. Gneiting, of Ft. Defiance, Ariz., walked the last 18-plus miles of the race after jogging through the first 8 miles. Markos Geneti won the men's event, setting a Los Angeles Marathon record with a time of 2:06:35. Buzunesh Deba gave Ethiopia a sweep, taking the women's race in 2:26:34.

Sebastian Lerch befasst sich mit der Vorhersage von Extremereignissen, zum Beispiel bei Stürmen und extrem starken Regenfällen und deren Auswirkung auf Fluten oder auch bei Ausnahmeereignissen in der Finanzindustrie. Das Dilemma ist dabei, dass die öffentliche Bewertung oft nur nach eventuell nicht vorhergesagten Katastrophen erfolgt, wie bei dem Erdbeben von L’Aquila, das sogar zur in erster Instanz Verurteilung von Wissenschaftlern führte. Tatsächlich gibt es Fälle erfolgreicher Erdbebenvorhersage, doch leider sind dies nur seltene Ereignisse. Die grundsätzliche Schwierigkeit liegt darin, ein angemessenes Modell für die Risikobewertung zu finden, auch wenn manche Ereignisse nur selten oder in bestimmter Umgebung sogar noch nie aufgetreten sind, und so kaum Daten vorliegen. Die Lösung liegt darin auf probabilistische Vorhersagen zu setzen. Hier wird kein deterministischer fester Wert vorhergesagt, sondern die stochastische Verteilung, in der man die Wahrscheinlichkeit für alle Ereignisse definiert. Verschiedene probabilistische Vorhersagen können mit Hilfe des Continuous Rank Probability Score (CRPS) zu Beobachtungen verglichen und evaluiert werden. Die CRPS ist dabei ein Vertreter der Proper Scoring Rules, da die wahre Verteilung diesen Score tatsächlich maximiert. Eine Herausforderung verbleibt die Frage nach einer geeigneten Vermittlung von probabilistischen Aussagen, wie sie uns in der Regenwahrscheinlichkeit täglich in der Wettervorhersage begegnet, und leider selten richtig verstanden wird. Literatur und Zusatzinformationen S. Lerch: Verification of probabilistic forecasts for rare and extreme events, Diplomarbeit, 2012. S. Lerch, T. L. Thorarinsdottir: Comparison of nonhomogeneous regression models for probabilistic wind speed forecasting, arXiv preprint arXiv:1305.2026, 2013. T. Gneiting, A. E. Raftery: Strictly proper scoring rules, prediction, and estimation, Journal of the American Statistical Association 102.477: 359-378, 2007. T. L. Thorarinsdottir, T. Gneiting, S. Lerch, N. Gissibl, N. Paths and pitfalls in prediction verification, Vortrag Norges Bank, 2013.

Gneiting, T (Heidelberg) Tuesday 21 December 2010, 10:00-11:00

In this paper we consider regression models for count data allowing for overdispersion in a Bayesian framework. We account for unobserved heterogeneity in the data in two ways. On the one hand, we consider more flexible models than a common Poisson model allowing for overdispersion in different ways. In particular, the negative binomial and the generalized Poisson distribution are addressed where overdispersion is modelled by an additional model parameter. Further, zero-inflated models in which overdispersion is assumed to be caused by an excessive number of zeros are discussed. On the other hand, extra spatial variability in the data is taken into account by adding spatial random effects to the models. This approach allows for an underlying spatial dependency structure which is modelled using a conditional autoregressive prior based on Pettitt et al. (2002). In an application the presented models are used to analyse the number of invasive meningococcal disease cases in Germany in the year 2004. Models are compared according to the deviance information criterion (DIC) suggested by Spiegelhalter et al. (2002) and using proper scoring rules, see for example Gneiting and Raftery (2004). We observe a rather high degree of overdispersion in the data which is captured best by the GP model when spatial effects are neglected. While the addition of spatial effects to the models allowing for overdispersion gives no or only little improvement, a spatial Poisson model is to be preferred over all other models according to the considered criteria.

In this paper models for claim frequency and claim size in non-life insurance are considered. Both covariates and spatial random e ects are included allowing the modelling of a spatial dependency pattern. We assume a Poisson model for the number of claims, while claim size is modelled using a Gamma distribution. However, in contrast to the usual compound Poisson model going back to Lundberg (1903), we allow for dependencies between claim size and claim frequency. Both models for the individual and average claim sizes of a policyholder are considered. A fully Bayesian approach is followed, parameters are estimated using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). The issue of model comparison is thoroughly addressed. Besides the deviance information criterion suggested by Spiegelhalter et al. (2002), the predictive model choice criterion (Gelfand and Ghosh (1998)) and proper scoring rules (Gneiting and Raftery (2005)) based on the posterior predictive distribution are investigated. We give an application to a comprehensive data set from a German car insurance company. The inclusion of spatial e ects significantly improves the models for both claim frequency and claim size and also leads to more accurate predictions of the total claim sizes. Further we quantify the significant number of claims e ects on claim size.