Podcasts about spurious correlations

Korrelation ist nicht gleich Kausalität, und wer fundierte Entscheidungen treffen will, braucht mehr als gute Vorhersagen. In dieser Folge geht es um Confounder, Spurious Correlations und die Frage, wann Machine Learning kausale Einsichten liefern kann. Mit dabei: DoubleML als Brücke zwischen klassischer Statistik und Machine Learning.   **Zusammenfassung** Unterscheidung zwischen Vorhersage und Intervention: Nur Kausalität beantwortet die "Was-wäre-wenn?"-Frage Praxisbeispiele: Bugs & Discounts, Eiskonsum & Kriminalität, Salzgehalt & Flussmenge Wichtig: Confounder identifizieren und herausrechnen, z. B. durch Zeitreihenzerlegung Einführung in Double ML: ML-Modelle für Response und Treatment, Effektschätzung über Residuen Herausforderungen: Overfitting-Bias, Regularisierung, verzerrte Effekte bei hoher Komplexität Alternativen & Ergänzungen: A/B-Tests, strukturelle Gleichungsmodelle, Kausaldiagramme Fazit: Vorsicht bei Spurious Correlations, Ceteris-paribus-Fallen und Feature-Interpretation - Kausalität braucht Kontext und Methode **Links** Blogartikel von Scott Lundberg: Be Careful When Interpreting Predictive Models in Search of Causal Insights https://medium.com/data-science/be-careful-when-interpreting-predictive-models-in-search-of-causal-insights-e68626e664b6 ICECREAM-Datensatz (verfügbar über das tsapp R-Paket): https://search.r-project.org/CRAN/refmans/tsapp/html/ICECREAM.html Victor Chernozhukov et al. (2018): Double/debiased machine learning for treatment and structural parameters, The Econometrics Journal, Volume 21, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1111/ectj.12097 Matheus Facure Alves (2022): Causal Inference for The Brave and True (kostenfreies Online-Buch) https://matheusfacure.github.io/python-causality-handbook/landing-page.html DoubleML (Python & R): https://docs.doubleml.org/stable/index.html EconML (Microsoft Research): https://econml.azurewebsites.net/index.html Causal ML (Uber Engineering): https://causalml.readthedocs.io/en/latest/ Vortragsfolien von Prof. Dr. Steffen Wagner: "Navigating the Ocean of Correlations to the Islands of Causality – Time Series Analyses at its Best", gehalten bei der Machine Learning Week München 2024 https://de.slideshare.net/secret/aArFURFQSBxrzB  

If money makes the world go round, then data tells you how fast it's spinning and when it might stop. 90% of all data was generated in the last 2 years and every 2 years the volume of data doubles. With 11 billion devices connected to the internet today, the annual global data generation in 2025 is expected to be 181 zettabytes, that's 181 trillion gigabytes. To put it in context, we use about 3 gigabytes to stream netflix in high definition for an hour. In other words, the modern world can't live without data. To continue to understand the world, especially as we move ever more into the digital age of AI, we must better understand the data we are creating. And this means in every part of life, including in business. Alexander Igelsböck, Co-Founder and CEO of Adverity joins us to show how data can unlock business opportunities and create a competitive advantage. Florian Jacquier, Global Head of Data Consumer Engagement at Nestlé, discusses the importance for large global companies to see, understand and action your data correctly. Dr Clare Walsh, Director of Education at the Institute of Analytics, highlights how data is used by organisations and governments and the importance of data policy and governance. Sources: FT Resources, Forbes, Harvard Business Review, Tyger Vilan's Spurious Correlations, Whatsthebigdata.comThis content is paid for by Adverity and is produced in partnership with the Financial Times' Commercial Department. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In the financial markets, it's common to spurious correlations based on historical data. However, the economic landscape has evolved, and banks now invest more in treasuries and borrow from the Fed rather than traditional lending. This shift questions the yield curve's predictive power. Additionally, spurious correlations show absurd links between unrelated data points, emphasizing the need for critical analysis of data to avoid misleading narratives.  Today we discuss...  Financial markets often draw conclusions from patterns, such as the inverted yield curve predicting recessions. Today's economy differs from 30 years ago, with banks favoring treasuries over traditional lending, altering the yield curve's predictive power. Correlation does not always imply causation; the inverted yield curve's causative effect may be weakened. Spurious correlations can be humorous but highlight the pitfalls of finding meaning in random data patterns. The bond market, at $130 trillion, dwarfs the $50 trillion US stock market and $100 trillion global stock market. The increasing debt and bond market highlight the importance of access to capital. AI's impact is currently seen as limited by many CEOs, viewing it as a potential rather than immediate profit driver. Microsoft's expenses on data centers have increased significantly, reflecting the infrastructure investment for cloud and AI services. Commercial real estate faces challenges, with significant losses on properties due to rising interest rates and reduced demand. Residential real estate is also under pressure, with 41.4% of median income now spent on new mortgages, surpassing 2008 levels. For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/spurious-correlations-631   Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | ProCollege Planners Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast  

Do Doctors know best? How do you explain the risks and benefits of a medicine when you yourself don't really know? We chat to Maricarmen Climént, Research and Editorial Officer at Sense about Science about risk communication and how we best help patients to make better choices in the face of uncertainty?Maricarmen has a diverse background in science journalism and risk communication and holds a degree in Veterinary Medicine and an MSc in Science Communication. She also worked for four years at the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication at the University of Cambridge, which we discuss. Do clinicians, deep down, think they know best? How can you teach risk to those whose career is predicated on supposedly knowing everything? How do you explain complexity in a simple way when the reality is rarely simple?Things are never certain and we discuss how clinicians can best navigate this difficult terrain and the importance of training in understanding and explaining risk. Dr Julian Treadwell's research we mention - " GPs' knowledge of the absolute benefits and harms of treatments is poor, with inaccuracies of a magnitude likely to meaningfully affect clinical decision-making and impede conversations with patients regarding treatment choices" https://bjgpopen.org/content/4/1/bjgpopen20X101016In our micro-discussion we delve into the paper “Bad news: how the media reported on an observational study about cardiovascular outcomes of COVID-19”. Are the media deliberately biased - or just incompetent - in how they report on scientific research? And how much are the papers' authors themselves to blame? https://ebm.bmj.com/content/early/2024/04/17/bmjebm-2023-112814. As with all of our guests, Maricarmen shares with us a Memory Evoking Medicine, a career anthem and book that has influenced her career or life.Sense about Science: https://senseaboutscience.org/. Spurious Correlations: http://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations. Our new website is now live https://www.theauralapothecary.com/ and as well as being a searchable database of all episodes, we will be uploading transcripts and extra content for your enjoyment and education. Have a look and let us know what you think! Our latest blog posts talks about our first live public show - ‘Music, Memories and Medicines' - have a read here; https://www.theauralapothecary.com/blog/the-three-apothecaries-music-medicines-and-memories/. To get in touch follow us on Twitter and Instagram @auralapothecary or email us at auralapothecarypod@gmail.com . Don't forget to rate us and comment wherever you have got this podcast from. You can listen to the Aural Apothecary playlist here; https://open.spotify.com/playlist/3OsWj4w8sxsvuwR9zMXgn5?si=tiHXrQI7QsGtSQwPyz1KBg You can view the Aural Apothecary Library here;  https://litalist.com/shelf/view-bookcase?publicId=KN6E3O

The co-hosts expose a real-world case of spurious correlation—the correlation between industry-level “values” and “prices,” drawing on chapter 11 of Andrew's book, Reclaiming Marx's “Capital,” and “Christianity versus Alternative Faith Bases,” his parody of the value-price correlation “studies.” They discuss why the value-price correlations are spurious, who started value-price correlation mania and why, what it has to do with Karl Marx's actual value theory, how Andrew became involved, and more. He refutes objections to his findings made by Paul Cockshott & Allin Cottrell and by Emilio Díaz & Rubén Osuna. Plus current-events segment: Razing Arizona—and the US? Near-total ban on abortion resurrected by Arizona's Supreme Court. Anne Jaclard joins the co-hosts to discuss the implications. Radio Free Humanity is co-hosted by Gabriel Donnelly and Andrew Kliman, and sponsored by Marxist-Humanist Initiative (https://www.marxisthumanistinitiative.org/ ).

Join Si and Desi for another episode of the Forensic Focus Podcast. This week, they discuss the lack of transparency and potential misrepresentation in the cybersecurity industry, particularly regarding the use of open-source tools by companies and the questionable interpretation of data and statistics in marketing and advertising. The conversation also delves into the implications of relying on computer systems and algorithms to make important decisions, such as in the case of the Post Office scandal in the UK and the Centrelink repayment debacle in Australia. They emphasize the importance of human oversight, critical thinking, and considering the human impact of such decisions, rather than blindly trusting the outputs of computer systems. 00:00 – The state of the digital forensics industry 02:30 – Desi's talk at BSides Brisbane 05:30 – Sweaty Cyber Advice and Strongman 09:40 – Companies integrating open source software 23:00 – Advertising, statistics and logical fallacies 28:00 – The Post Office scandal and computer accountability 49:00 – Security, compliance and regulations 56:00 – Closing thoughts Show Notes Hardly Adequate YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@hardlyadequate Oxfordshire's Strongman & Strongwoman - https:oxfordshire.rocks CPS, Computer Records Evidence - https://www.cps.gov.uk/legal-guidance/computer-records-evidence Your Logical Fallacyis - https://yourlogicalfallacyis.com/ British Post Office Scandal - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Post_Office_scandal The Guardian, Robodebt Scandal - https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/mar/11/robodebt-five-years-of-lies-mistakes-and-failures-that-caused-a-18bn-scandal Tyler Vigen, Spurious Correlations - http://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations Forensic Focus Discord - https://discord.gg/97zKvTXHeS

On this week's episode of The Riff, Erik and Byrne discuss Austin real estate, why Duolingo has remained strong post-pandemic, and how to identify spurious correlations during data analysis. --- This show is produced by Turpentine: a network of podcasts, newsletters, and more, covering technology, business, and culture — all from the perspective of industry insiders and experts. We're launching new shows every week, and we're looking for industry-leading sponsors — if you think that might be you and your company, email us at erik@turpentine.co. --- SPONSOR: BRAVE Get first-party targeting with Brave's private ad platform: cookieless and future proof ad formats for all your business needs. Performance meets privacy. Head to https://brave.com/brave-ads/ and mention “MoZ” when signing up for a 25% discount on your first campaign. --- LINKS: Byrne's writing: thediff.co --- X / TWITTER: @eriktorenberg (Erik) @byrnehobart (Byrne) @turpentinemedia (Turpentine) --- Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:20) Generative AI and Its Impact on Platforms (04:44) The Future of Personalized Media Consumption (08:27) The Evolution of Media Distribution and Content Creation (14:36) Austin's Housing Market (28:54) Identifying False Positives in Data-Driven Decision Making (37:32) Apple's Antitrust Case (50:51) Why Duolingo Hasn't Crashed (57:25) The Reddit IPO (1:03:03) Wrap --- For guest or sponsorship inquiries please contact Sam@turpentine.co

On this week's episode of The Riff, Erik and Byrne discuss Austin real estate, why Duolingo has remained strong post-pandemic, and how to identify spurious correlations during data analysis.---This show is produced by Turpentine: a network of podcasts, newsletters, and more, covering technology, business, and culture — all from the perspective of industry insiders and experts. We're launching new shows every week, and we're looking for industry-leading sponsors — if you think that might be you and your company, email us at erik@turpentine.co.---SPONSOR: BRAVEGet first-party targeting with Brave's private ad platform: cookieless and future proof ad formats for all your business needs. Performance meets privacy. Head to https://brave.com/brave-ads/ and mention “MoZ” when signing up for a 25% discount on your first campaign.---LINKS:Byrne's writing: thediff.co---X / TWITTER:@eriktorenberg (Erik)@byrnehobart (Byrne)@turpentinemedia (Turpentine)---Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(00:20) Generative AI and Its Impact on Platforms(04:44) The Future of Personalized Media Consumption(08:27) The Evolution of Media Distribution and Content Creation(14:36) Austin's Housing Market(28:54) Identifying False Positives in Data-Driven Decision Making(37:32) Apple's Antitrust Case(50:51) Why Duolingo Hasn't Crashed(57:25) The Reddit IPO(1:03:03) Wrap---For guest or sponsorship inquiries please contact Sam@turpentine.co This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit theriffpodcast.substack.com

Welcome back to another episode of the Niche Pursuits News Podcast, where Spencer and Jared talk about the biggest news over the last week in Google, SEO, and AI.  They also give an update on some of their side hustles and top it all off with some very weird and entertaining niche sites. They kick off this week's call by announcing big news: Google has just finished rolling out the spam update, although the core update will continue to be rolled out for another two weeks. The spam update targeted three types of abuse: scaled content, expired domain, and site reputation (also known as parasite SEO), though the latter will technically be targeted in May.  They share a tweet from Lily Ray, where she details the winners and losers from the update, and then Spencer looks at a handful of their data in Ahrefs.  If you take a closer look at the “winners,” you can see examples of sites that are crushing it and do your own deep-dive analysis. They also look at sites that were absolutely crushed in the update, as we can learn from both.  Listen to the full episode to see their analysis and which sites are doing well and poorly. Moving along, the next news item is that Google is shaking things up a bit internally, replacing the Head of Search, among other roles.  What do Spencer and Jared make of this? And what does the new head, Liz Reid, talk about primarily in her announcement? What does she see as the future of search? And what's motivating these changes at Google? Tune in to hear what they think! During the Side Hustle Shenanigans segment of the podcast, Spencer goes first and talks about his Amazon Influencer business. He reveals his current earnings and reports that his earnings have become almost entirely passive since he hasn't really uploaded videos since December. Jared just finished his call with the Niche Pursuits Community, where he talks in detail about his business and how he's grown it. Spencer did a call the previous week where he shared all the details behind his Amazon Influencer business as well. If you want to see those videos and enjoy many other aspects of the Community, you can join right here!  When it's Jared's turn, he talks about deleting 18% of the subscribers to his Weekend Growth newsletter. He shares the process for culling the list and trying to re-engage with disinterested subscribers, and the resulting open rate after the process. Spencer then shares his process for managing the people on his list who are disengaged. Which approach resonates the most with you? Check out the episode to hear how their strategies differ.  When it's time to talk about Weird Niche Sites, Spencer goes first with Ling's Cars. From the psychedelic background to Ling's bobbing head, the site definitely leans into its weirdness. The owner also uses some unique real-life marketing strategies but doesn't have a very strong SEO game. Most of its traffic is direct or comes from social media, reaching 84k visitors last month. When it's Jared's turn, he shares the personal website, Tyler Vigen. The section that has gone viral is called Spurious Correlations, where he shows correlations between two completely random things, like Amazon's stock price and the popularity of the name Stevie. There's a very entertaining AI component to this DR74 site, although it's not ranking for a lot of keywords or getting much traffic, and the owner is not monetizing in any way. And that brings us to the end of another episode of the Niche Pursuits News podcast, where Spencer and Jared break down the latest important news in the sector and seek to motivate listeners with their side hustles. See you next Friday!  Ready to join a niche publishing mastermind, and here from industry experts each week? Join the Niche Pursuits Community here: https://community.nichepursuits.com  Be sure to get more content like this in the Niche Pursuits Newsletter Right Here: https://www.nichepursuits.com/newsletter  Want a Faster and Easier Way to Build Internal Links? Get $15 off Link Whisper with Discount Code "Podcast" on the Checkout Screen: https://www.nichepursuits.com/linkwhisper Get SEO Consulting from the Niche Pursuits Podcast Host, Jared Bauman: https://www.nichepursuits.com/201creative

Discover all of the podcasts in our network, search for specific episodes, get the Optimal Living Daily workbook, and learn more at: OLDPodcast.com. Episode 2984: David Cain's insightful piece on mindfulness reveals how it transforms our daily experiences, reducing impulsiveness and the need for external stimuli. He connects mindful living with decreased reliance on smartphones and a greater appreciation of life's ordinary moments, offering a profound perspective on how mindfulness fosters contentment and inner confidence. Read along with the original article(s) here: https://www.raptitude.com/2015/11/mindfulness-is-the-opposite-of-neediness/ Quotes to ponder: "Whenever you're being mindful, the present moment doesn't seem to need improvement." "Mindfulness is the opposite of neediness." "This fearing and hoping we attach to many experiences is a kind of visceral neediness—a demand for the present moment to be easier, safer, or more comforting than it actually is." Episode references: Spurious Correlations by Tyler Vegan: Link to Book Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Discover all of the podcasts in our network, search for specific episodes, get the Optimal Living Daily workbook, and learn more at: OLDPodcast.com. Episode 2984: David Cain's insightful piece on mindfulness reveals how it transforms our daily experiences, reducing impulsiveness and the need for external stimuli. He connects mindful living with decreased reliance on smartphones and a greater appreciation of life's ordinary moments, offering a profound perspective on how mindfulness fosters contentment and inner confidence. Read along with the original article(s) here: https://www.raptitude.com/2015/11/mindfulness-is-the-opposite-of-neediness/ Quotes to ponder: "Whenever you're being mindful, the present moment doesn't seem to need improvement." "Mindfulness is the opposite of neediness." "This fearing and hoping we attach to many experiences is a kind of visceral neediness—a demand for the present moment to be easier, safer, or more comforting than it actually is." Episode references: Spurious Correlations by Tyler Vegan: Link to Book Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In the 1980s, whilst the media stirred up frenzies over Satanists in our midst or a nuclear bomb landing in Washington, a reporter made a documentary adding vaccines to the growing list of dangers. Vaccine Roulette claimed the pertussis vaccine caused brain damage in kids, which led to a drop in immunizations, a rise in whooping cough, and a near-end to the production of vaccines. On Strange Country, cohosts Beth and Kelly talk about this antivax movement spawned during the time of leg warmers and Alf, and continues to impact the current vaccine hesitancy we see today. Theme music: Big White Lie by A Cast of Thousands Cite your sources: Spurious Correlations, https://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations. Accessed 24 August 2023.   Astor, Maggie. “How These Vocal Anti Covid Vaccine Chiropractors Have Split the Profession.” The New York Times, 14 July 2021, https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/14/health/anti-covid-vaxxers.html. Accessed 1 September 2023.   Bond, Shannon. “Just 12 People Are Behind Most Vaccine Hoaxes On Social Media, Research Shows.” NPR, 13 May 2021, https://www.npr.org/2021/05/13/996570855/disinformation-dozen-test-facebooks-twitters-ability-to-curb-vaccine-hoaxes. Accessed 24 August 2023.   Edwards, Erika. “Childhood vaccinations in the U.S. fall again, leaving kids at risk for preventable disease.” NBC News, 12 January 2023, http://nbcnews.com/health/health-news/childhood-vaccinations-us-fall-leaving-kids-risk-preventable-disease-rcna65493. Accessed 24 August 2023.   Haelle, Tara. “How vaccine hesitancy has dealt damage over centuries.” Science News, 11 May 2021, https://www.sciencenews.org/article/vaccine-hesitancy-history-damage-anti-vaccination. Accessed 2 September 2023.   Offit, Paul A. Deadly Choices: How the Anti-Vaccine Movement Threatens Us All. Basic Books, 2011.   Sun, Lena H. “Growing vaccine hesitancy fuels measles, chickenpox resurgence in U.S.” Washington Post, 26 December 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2022/12/26/vaccine-hesitancy-measles-chickenpox-polio-flu/. Accessed 24 August 2023.   “Vaccines - Research and data from Pew Research Center.” Pew Research Center, https://www.pewresearch.org/topic/science/science-issues/medicine-health/vaccines/. Accessed 2 September 2023.

The news is full of contradictions. We hear talk of an inflationary bubble and runaway housing costs are met with Fed tightening and the end of the stimulus. A record number of Millennials are starting families, experiencing record low unemployment and rising wages. And yet those wages aren't keeping pace with record inflation. Add to this supply chain problems, a lack of affordable housing, bank tightening and rising commodity prices seem to add a level of uncertainty not seen in our lifetime. This week we want to talk economics. We are trying to separate the signal from the noise. Our guest is a man who has been studying housing prices since founding his firm in 1986. We'll ask Jonathan which of those headlines matter most to the real estate market, and which we can safely ignore.

(7/5/23) Welcome to the second-half of 2023: Q2 earnings season is revving up, as markets' performance divergence from economic indicators creates the question: Who's right, and where to now? What about the Wealth Gap, the Wealth Effect, and Consumer Confidence? Earnings season commences with massive cuts in earnings estimates (so that the beat rate will be high!) What about the Quality of earnings and revenue? Reported earnings since the pandemic are up +500%, while revenue is up only +100%; how is that possible or sustainable? NVDIA's predictions are not supportable: 40X price-to-sales ratio in a market where there are other players (AMD); valuations do not support growth. Apple has 8x price to sales with 25% market share. The story of Lance's Laundry and today's shirt choices. The continuing saga of the Roberts' Real Estate; did increasing home values feed The Great Resignation? Correlation and Causation are not always connected. Spurious Correlations and a look at real Employment/Unemployment vs "The Numbers:" 40-million are not working...and not being counted, either. SEG-1: Q2 Earnings Season Begins SEG-2: Earnings Estimates Decline: What About Quality of Earnings & Revenue? SEG-3: Lance's Shirts & Roberts' Home Sales Saga SEG-4: Spurious Correlations & Real Employment Numbers Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mp6FP4Jx1Ds&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=30s -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell | "Will Economic Data Catch Up with Market Sentiment?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j1Zl-TPrYtE&list=PLwNgo56zE4RA3snVQyugvOF5TwZ1Xu7bm&index=1 -------- Our previous show is here: "Lessons from the Luling Watermelon Thump" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4C0g2xXwOGE&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Article Mentioned in Today's Show: "Treasury Yield Curves – Is This Inversion Different?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/treasury-yield-curves-is-this-inversion-different ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #Employment #UnEmployment #GreatResignation #HousingMarket #EarningsSeason #Markets #Money #Investing

(7/5/23) Welcome to the second-half of 2023: Q2 earnings season is revving up, as markets' performance divergence from economic indicators creates the question: Who's right, and where to now? What about the Wealth Gap, the Wealth Effect, and Consumer Confidence? Earnings season commences with massive cuts in earnings estimates (so that the beat rate will be high!) What about the Quality of earnings and revenue? Reported earnings since the pandemic are up +500%, while revenue is up only +100%; how is that possible or sustainable? NVDIA's predictions are not supportable: 40X price-to-sales ratio in a market where there are other players (AMD); valuations do not support growth. Apple has 8x price to sales with 25% market share. The story of Lance's Laundry and today's shirt choices. The continuing saga of the Roberts' Real Estate; did increasing home values feed The Great Resignation? Correlation and Causation are not always connected. Spurious Correlations and a look at real Employment/Unemployment vs "The Numbers:" 40-million are not working...and not being counted, either.   SEG-1: Q2 Earnings Season Begins SEG-2: Earnings Estimates Decline: What About Quality of Earnings & Revenue? SEG-3: Lance's Shirts & Roberts' Home Sales Saga SEG-4: Spurious Correlations & Real Employment Numbers   Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel:   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mp6FP4Jx1Ds&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=30s -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell | "Will Economic Data Catch Up with Market Sentiment?" is here:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j1Zl-TPrYtE&list=PLwNgo56zE4RA3snVQyugvOF5TwZ1Xu7bm&index=1 --------  Our previous show is here: "Lessons from the Luling Watermelon Thump" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4C0g2xXwOGE&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Article Mentioned in Today's Show: "Treasury Yield Curves – Is This Inversion Different?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/treasury-yield-curves-is-this-inversion-different ------- Get more info & commentary:  https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #Employment #UnEmployment #GreatResignation #HousingMarket #EarningsSeason #Markets #Money #Investing

CITR's 24 Hours of Radio Art in a snack sized format. Dark Ambient. Drone. Field Recordings. Noise. Sound Art. Or something. This Friday evening's broadcast features new Terence Fixmer, Oberman Knocks, WXR_JR, Matthias Engelke / Moradokmai Theatre Community‘s ‘Woman Giant‘, and the Massaro / Vitolo / Miele (saxophone / clarinet / electronics / percussion) collaboration ‘Spurious Correlations‘.

How will Griffin get her life back together after finding out the truth about the past two weeks? Will Calvin ever speak to her again? Rickenbacker and Phoenix have a debrief. Did you enjoy that chapter? Support me at https://ko-fi.com/kristawallaceisawriter My website: http://kristawallace.com Find my audiobooks on Chirp!  https://www.chirpbooks.com/search?q=Krista%20Wallace&filter=authors Find my audiobooks on Apple Books!  https://books.apple.com/us/author/krista-wallace/id1153781706#see-all/audio-books Find my audiobooks on Google Play! https://play.google.com/store/books/collection/cluster?clp=6gkSCg5LcmlzdGEgV2FsbGFjZRBA:S:ANO1ljIe2vE&gsr=ChXqCRIKDktyaXN0YSBXYWxsYWNlEEA%3D:S:ANO1ljJ08tI

The rest of the Big Day: Griffin heads back to the mainland for the Spurious Correlations gig. Did you enjoy that chapter? Support me at https://ko-fi.com/kristawallaceisawriter My website: http://kristawallace.com Find my audiobooks on Chirp!  https://www.chirpbooks.com/search?q=Krista%20Wallace&filter=authors Find my audiobooks on Apple Books!  https://books.apple.com/us/author/krista-wallace/id1153781706#see-all/audio-books Find my audiobooks on Google Play! https://play.google.com/store/books/collection/cluster?clp=6gkSCg5LcmlzdGEgV2FsbGFjZRBA:S:ANO1ljIe2vE&gsr=ChXqCRIKDktyaXN0YSBXYWxsYWNlEEA%3D:S:ANO1ljJ08tI

The Big Day: Griffin has high hopes for a perfect day, as she heads out to teach and take care of some things before going to the wedding. Unfortunately, Phoenix has other ideas... Did you enjoy that chapter? Support me at https://ko-fi.com/kristawallaceisawriter My website: http://kristawallace.com Find my audiobooks on Chirp!  https://www.chirpbooks.com/search?q=Krista%20Wallace&filter=authors Find my audiobooks on Apple Books!  https://books.apple.com/us/author/krista-wallace/id1153781706#see-all/audio-books Find my audiobooks on Google Play! https://play.google.com/store/books/collection/cluster?clp=6gkSCg5LcmlzdGEgV2FsbGFjZRBA:S:ANO1ljIe2vE&gsr=ChXqCRIKDktyaXN0YSBXYWxsYWNlEEA%3D:S:ANO1ljJ08tI

Griffin has an interesting journey home, and a suspicious surprise at the end of it, which gets her thinking. Did you enjoy that chapter? Support me at https://ko-fi.com/kristawallaceisawriter My website: http://kristawallace.com Find my audiobooks on Chirp!  https://www.chirpbooks.com/search?q=Krista%20Wallace&filter=authors Find my audiobooks on Apple Books!  https://books.apple.com/us/author/krista-wallace/id1153781706#see-all/audio-books Find my audiobooks on Google Play! https://play.google.com/store/books/collection/cluster?clp=6gkSCg5LcmlzdGEgV2FsbGFjZRBA:S:ANO1ljIe2vE&gsr=ChXqCRIKDktyaXN0YSBXYWxsYWNlEEA%3D:S:ANO1ljJ08tI

Griffin reflects on the auditions, and to her surprise, stands up to Phoenix. Rickenbacker learns that he made--gasp--a mistake! Did you enjoy that chapter? Support me at https://ko-fi.com/kristawallaceisawriter My website: http://kristawallace.com Find my audiobooks on Chirp!  https://www.chirpbooks.com/search?q=Krista%20Wallace&filter=authors Find my audiobooks on Apple Books!  https://books.apple.com/us/author/krista-wallace/id1153781706#see-all/audio-books Find my audiobooks on Google Play! https://play.google.com/store/books/collection/cluster?clp=6gkSCg5LcmlzdGEgV2FsbGFjZRBA:S:ANO1ljIe2vE&gsr=ChXqCRIKDktyaXN0YSBXYWxsYWNlEEA%3D:S:ANO1ljJ08tI

Griffin gets a sense that Something Is Going On behind the scenes at Salamander's. Matteo auditions for her band, amid a bit of awkwardness. Did you enjoy that chapter? Support me at https://ko-fi.com/kristawallaceisawriter My website: http://kristawallace.com Find my audiobooks on Chirp!  https://www.chirpbooks.com/search?q=Krista%20Wallace&filter=authors Find my audiobooks on Apple Books!  https://books.apple.com/us/author/krista-wallace/id1153781706#see-all/audio-books Find my audiobooks on Google Play! https://play.google.com/store/books/collection/cluster?clp=6gkSCg5LcmlzdGEgV2FsbGFjZRBA:S:ANO1ljIe2vE&gsr=ChXqCRIKDktyaXN0YSBXYWxsYWNlEEA%3D:S:ANO1ljJ08tI

Griffin has a doughy experience, and then goes on a date--is it a date?--with Matteo.   Did you enjoy that chapter? Support me at https://ko-fi.com/kristawallaceisawriter My website: http://kristawallace.com Find my audiobooks on Chirp!  https://www.chirpbooks.com/search?q=Krista%20Wallace&filter=authors Find my audiobooks on Apple Books!  https://books.apple.com/us/author/krista-wallace/id1153781706#see-all/audio-books Find my audiobooks on Google Play! https://play.google.com/store/books/collection/cluster?clp=6gkSCg5LcmlzdGEgV2FsbGFjZRBA:S:ANO1ljIe2vE&gsr=ChXqCRIKDktyaXN0YSBXYWxsYWNlEEA%3D:S:ANO1ljJ08tI

Griffin finally gets to make something she knows she's good at: shortbread. What will the judges think of it in the Taste Test Fest...? Then she has Sunday dinner with the family to look forward to. It would be fine if not for her mother...   Did you enjoy that chapter? Support me at https://ko-fi.com/kristawallaceisawriter My website: http://kristawallace.com Find my audiobooks on Chirp!  https://www.chirpbooks.com/search?q=Krista%20Wallace&filter=authors Find my audiobooks on Apple Books!  https://books.apple.com/us/author/krista-wallace/id1153781706#see-all/audio-books Find my audiobooks on Google Play! https://play.google.com/store/books/collection/cluster?clp=6gkSCg5LcmlzdGEgV2FsbGFjZRBA:S:ANO1ljIe2vE&gsr=ChXqCRIKDktyaXN0YSBXYWxsYWNlEEA%3D:S:ANO1ljJ08tI

Griffin formulates a new Philosophy of Life to get her through the day, and she looks forward to lunch with Jillian.  Did you enjoy that chapter? Support me at https://ko-fi.com/kristawallaceisawriter My website: http://kristawallace.com Find my audiobooks on Chirp!  https://www.chirpbooks.com/search?q=Krista%20Wallace&filter=authors Find my audiobooks on Apple Books!  https://books.apple.com/us/author/krista-wallace/id1153781706#see-all/audio-books Find my audiobooks on Google Play! https://play.google.com/store/books/collection/cluster?clp=6gkSCg5LcmlzdGEgV2FsbGFjZRBA:S:ANO1ljIe2vE&gsr=ChXqCRIKDktyaXN0YSBXYWxsYWNlEEA%3D:S:ANO1ljJ08tI

Relieved to have a couple of days off from work at the restaurant, Griffin goes to her job at the music store, where things aren't as normal as she hoped. She finally gets in touch with Calvin, and intends to tell him about her new band...   Did you enjoy that chapter? Support me at https://ko-fi.com/kristawallaceisawriter As promised: https://www.whenwordscollide.org My website: http://kristawallace.com Find my audiobooks on Chirp!  https://www.chirpbooks.com/search?q=Krista%20Wallace&filter=authors Find my audiobooks on Apple Books!  https://books.apple.com/us/author/krista-wallace/id1153781706#see-all/audio-books Find my audiobooks on Google Play! https://play.google.com/store/books/collection/cluster?clp=6gkSCg5LcmlzdGEgV2FsbGFjZRBA:S:ANO1ljIe2vE&gsr=ChXqCRIKDktyaXN0YSBXYWxsYWNlEEA%3D:S:ANO1ljJ08tI

Bonus double-chapter episode! Griffin makes Black Forest cake and deals with an Elvis impersonator. The final rehearsal before her first Spurious Correlations gig is perfectly magical. Gig day! Griffin feels terrible for forgetting to call Calvin, and finally attempts to do something about it. Did you enjoy that chapter? Support me at https://ko-fi.com/kristawallaceisawriter As promised: https://www.whenwordscollide.org My website: http://kristawallace.com Find my audiobooks on Chirp!  https://www.chirpbooks.com/search?q=Krista%20Wallace&filter=authors Find my audiobooks on Apple Books!  https://books.apple.com/us/author/krista-wallace/id1153781706#see-all/audio-books Find my audiobooks on Google Play! https://play.google.com/store/books/collection/cluster?clp=6gkSCg5LcmlzdGEgV2FsbGFjZRBA:S:ANO1ljIe2vE&gsr=ChXqCRIKDktyaXN0YSBXYWxsYWNlEEA%3D:S:ANO1ljJ08tI

Bonus Two-Chapter episode! Griffin gets mixed messages about her Creme Brulee...and then she goes home. Her first experience with French puff pastry has some ups and downs. Phoenix and Rickenbacker have a debrief, and are feeling good about their chances. Did you enjoy that chapter? Support me at https://ko-fi.com/kristawallaceisawriter My website: http://kristawallace.com Find my audiobooks on Chirp!  https://www.chirpbooks.com/search?q=Krista%20Wallace&filter=authors Find my audiobooks on Apple Books!  https://books.apple.com/us/author/krista-wallace/id1153781706#see-all/audio-books Find my audiobooks on Google Play! https://play.google.com/store/books/collection/cluster?clp=6gkSCg5LcmlzdGEgV2FsbGFjZRBA:S:ANO1ljIe2vE&gsr=ChXqCRIKDktyaXN0YSBXYWxsYWNlEEA%3D:S:ANO1ljJ08tI

Griffin has her first rehearsal with the Spurious Correlations, and discovers a knack for Crème Brûlée. Also, a knife comes into her life. My website: http://kristawallace.com Find my audiobooks on Chirp!  https://www.chirpbooks.com/search?q=Krista%20Wallace&filter=authors Find my audiobooks on Apple Books!  https://books.apple.com/us/author/krista-wallace/id1153781706#see-all/audio-books Find my audiobooks on Google Play! https://play.google.com/store/books/collection/cluster?clp=6gkSCg5LcmlzdGEgV2FsbGFjZRBA:S:ANO1ljIe2vE&gsr=ChXqCRIKDktyaXN0YSBXYWxsYWNlEEA%3D:S:ANO1ljJ08tI

Rickenbacker introduces Griffin to the lead guitarist of her dreams, and she finds herself presented with a Very Tempting Offer. Strange Things happen on her way home. My website: http://kristawallace.com Find my audiobooks on Chirp!  https://www.chirpbooks.com/search?q=Krista%20Wallace&filter=authors Find my audiobooks on Apple Books!  https://books.apple.com/us/author/krista-wallace/id1153781706#see-all/audio-books Find my audiobooks on Google Play! https://play.google.com/store/books/collection/cluster?clp=6gkSCg5LcmlzdGEgV2FsbGFjZRBA:S:ANO1ljIe2vE&gsr=ChXqCRIKDktyaXN0YSBXYWxsYWNlEEA%3D:S:ANO1ljJ08tI

Griffin goes to work at the music store, where things are not as they usually are. She makes her way to the address on the business card, to meet Rickenbacker Topiary. My website: http://kristawallace.com Find my audiobooks on Chirp!  https://www.chirpbooks.com/search?q=Krista%20Wallace&filter=authors Find my audiobooks on Apple Books!  https://books.apple.com/us/author/krista-wallace/id1153781706#see-all/audio-books

A new story! My standalone novel, completely separate from the Gatekeeper series. In chapter one, Griffin Trowbridge and her band have their Big Break: High powered businessman, Carl Snifter's daughter's wedding. If all goes well, this could be the first of many, the start of a busy career for Griffin and her band. A dream come true for Griffin. If all goes well... My website: http://kristawallace.com Find my audiobooks on Chirp!  https://www.chirpbooks.com/search?q=Krista%20Wallace&filter=authors Find my audiobooks on Apple Books!  https://books.apple.com/us/author/krista-wallace/id1153781706#see-all/audio-books

Some teasers of the next book in the Gatekeeper series, and of the book I will begin podcasting in a couple of weeks. Yay!   My website: http://kristawallace.com Find my audiobooks on Chirp!  https://www.chirpbooks.com/search?q=Krista%20Wallace&filter=authors Find my audiobooks on Apple Books!  https://books.apple.com/us/author/krista-wallace/id1153781706#see-all/audio-books

Don't forget to subscribe. --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/beau-of-the-fifth-column/message Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/beau-of-the-fifth-column/support

You might be surprised to learn that when golf courses make less revenue, Disney World's attendance goes up. You might also find it weird that Mississippi's marriage rate correlates 99.3% with the US per capita consumption of whole milk. Perhaps most shocking is the fact that more people die of fire, smoke, and flames in years when Nick Cage is in fewer movies. All of these are 100 percent true. Why do you think that is? If you just tried to think of the answer, congratulations! You are human. Also, don't worry about it. While each of these things is true, they are called a Spurious Correlation, which describes two parallel and completely unrelated statistics.  This episode discusses how your brain encounters something like a Spurious Correlation, and it tries to make sense of them, even when there is no sense to make. We see this kind of behavior in many different areas, including big data, pictures from Mars, and even your customer behavior analysis. Could you see something in the numbers that isn't there?  Key Ideas to Improve your Customer Experience Spurious Correlations are statistics that are closely parallel, but there is no relation between them. We often see correlations in customer behavior statistics. Usually, you can explain why you know what you see, so you fix it. However, what happens if you are wrong about what you saw? We discuss what you can do about this problem before it ends up causing you more significant issues in your Customer Experience. Here are some key moments in the discussion:   04:11   Ryan explains what a spurious correlation is and how it relates to Customer Experience. 07:28   Ryan tells us what our brains do when we see a correlated statistic, even when there is not an obvious connection 09:17   We share what Nobel Prize-winning economist Daniel Kahneman says about this phenomenon. 14:17   Colin shares why we evolved to seek patterns in data we receive about the world around us.   17:16   We talk about Professor Gary Smith's article on Spurious Correlations in Big Data and what dangers that portends for Customer Experience analysis. 19:51   Ryan explains how the peer review process keeps scientists from making their opinions their conclusions. 28:40   We share three actionable things you can do to avoid making this mistake with your analysis of customer behavior. Please tell us how we are doing! Complete this short survey.  Customer Experience Information & Resources LinkedIn recognizes Colin Shaw as one of the 'World's Top 150 Business Influencers.' As a result, he has 289,000 followers of his work. Shaw is Founder and CEO of Beyond Philosophy LLC, which helps organizations unlock growth by discovering customers' hidden, unmet needs that drive value ($). The Financial Times selected Beyond Philosophy LLC as one of the best management consultancies for the last two years. Follow Colin on Linkedin and Twitter. Click here to learn more about Professor Ryan Hamilton of Emory University.  Why Customers Buy: As an official "Influencer" on LinkedIn, Colin writes a regular newsletter on all things Customer Experience. Click here to join the other 22,000 subscribers.  Experience Health Check: You already have an experience, even if you weren't deliberate about it. Our Experience Health Check can help you understand what you have today. Colin or one of our team can assess your digital or physical Customer Experience, interacting with your organization as a customer to define what is good and what needs improving. Then, they will provide a list of recommendations for critical next steps for your organization. Click here to learn more.  How can we help? Click here to learn more about Beyond Philosophy's Suite of Services.

You might be surprised to learn that when golf courses make less revenue, Disney World's attendance goes up. You might also find it weird that Mississippi's marriage rate correlates 99.3% with the US per capita consumption of whole milk. Perhaps most shocking is the fact that more people die of fire, smoke, and flames in years when Nick Cage is in fewer movies. All of these are 100 percent true. Why do you think that is? If you just tried to think of the answer, congratulations! You are human. Also, don't worry about it. While each of these things is true, they are called a Spurious Correlation, which describes two parallel and completely unrelated statistics.  This episode discusses how your brain encounters something like a Spurious Correlation, and it tries to make sense of them, even when there is no sense to make. We see this kind of behavior in many different areas, including big data, pictures from Mars, and even your customer behavior analysis. Could you see something in the numbers that isn't there?  Key Ideas to Improve your Customer Experience Spurious Correlations are statistics that are closely parallel, but there is no relation between them. We often see correlations in customer behavior statistics. Usually, you can explain why you know what you see, so you fix it. However, what happens if you are wrong about what you saw? We discuss what you can do about this problem before it ends up causing you more significant issues in your Customer Experience. Here are some key moments in the discussion:   04:11   Ryan explains what a spurious correlation is and how it relates to Customer Experience. 07:28   Ryan tells us what our brains do when we see a correlated statistic, even when there is not an obvious connection 09:17   We share what Nobel Prize-winning economist Daniel Kahneman says about this phenomenon. 14:17   Colin shares why we evolved to seek patterns in data we receive about the world around us.   17:16   We talk about Professor Gary Smith's article on Spurious Correlations in Big Data and what dangers that portends for Customer Experience analysis. 19:51   Ryan explains how the peer review process keeps scientists from making their opinions their conclusions. 28:40   We share three actionable things you can do to avoid making this mistake with your analysis of customer behavior. Please tell us how we are doing! Complete this short survey.  Customer Experience Information & Resources LinkedIn recognizes Colin Shaw as one of the 'World's Top 150 Business Influencers.' As a result, he has 289,000 followers of his work. Shaw is Founder and CEO of Beyond Philosophy LLC, which helps organizations unlock growth by discovering customers' hidden, unmet needs that drive value ($). The Financial Times selected Beyond Philosophy LLC as one of the best management consultancies for the last two years. Follow Colin on Linkedin and Twitter. Click here to learn more about Professor Ryan Hamilton of Emory University.  Why Customers Buy: As an official "Influencer" on LinkedIn, Colin writes a regular newsletter on all things Customer Experience. Click here to join the other 22,000 subscribers.  Experience Health Check: You already have an experience, even if you weren't deliberate about it. Our Experience Health Check can help you understand what you have today. Colin or one of our team can assess your digital or physical Customer Experience, interacting with your organization as a customer to define what is good and what needs improving. Then, they will provide a list of recommendations for critical next steps for your organization. Click here to learn more.  How can we help? Click here to learn more about Beyond Philosophy's Suite of Services.

Those dealing with data must always remember “If you torture data long enough, it will confess to anything.” The answers that computers give must themselves be questioned. Robert J. Marks and Gary Smith address artificial intelligence, spurious correlations, and data research on Mind Matters. Show Notes 01:34 | Introduction to Gary Smith, the Fletcher Jones Professor of Economics at Pomona… Source

Is Big Data able to take decisions for us, humans? In this episode, we talk to the Big Data expert from nPowered, Piotr Jegier about the traps that many of us will encounter as we start to rely more any more on data. We dive into the topic of cognitive biases and try to understand in what domains humans still can't be replaced by AI.IMPORTANT LINKSnPowered - what we doPiotr's twitterFlat Earthers' documentary - BEHIND THE CURVE | Official HD Trailer (2018) | DOCUMENTARY | Film Threat Trailers (YT)Things that correlate, but that does not really mean anything (Spurious Correlations by Tyler Vigen)The software that helps judges make bail decisions, which does not like black peopleJohn Cleese on Creativity, including open vs. closed mode (YT)Modern portfolio theory, ie. making sure your many mistakes of forecasting compensate each other (Wikipedia)Traveling Wilburys, the supergroup and the history behind their nameAn article on The Butterfly Effect and Edward Lorenz's contribution to the Chaos TheoryOn the often-discussed death of strategy in business in these turbulent times - IMD: Strategy is dead? Long live strategic thinking!. Diagnostics, alternatives and choice By Emeritus Professor Paul StrebelAn interesting article on what you might make when you do strategy, includes the strategy statement and the strategic sweet spot: - Can You Say What Your Strategy Is? by David J. Collis and Michael G. RukstadComments by the CEO of T-Mobile Poland on "turning the tanker around"Ethics and addiction in tech product design: How Technology is Hijacking Your Mind — from a Magician and Google Design Ethicist, by Tristan HarrisWhat is the Turing Test? (a short video from Cnet on YT)On the General AI and the control problem (YT) - Can we build AI without losing control over it? | Sam Harris (TED)Confirmation Bias - a good intro by Shahram Heshmat Ph.D. on Psychology TodayA Vox article outlining the work of Dan Kahan on how the (politically) motivated reasoning makes us stupid, and how scientific curiosity can counteract this effectA place where you can learn more on Open Science movement and pre-register your research hypotheses - Center for Open Science - preregister your hypothesesAI Control Problem (Wikipedia)An episode of Dan Carlin's Hardcore History podcast, "The Destroyer of Worlds" on the difficult and risky early years of the nuclear cold war on EarthA selection of 10 particularly non-obvious "For Dummies" booksAn inspiring introduction and overview of Getting Things Done method (and book) by its creator, David Allen, on Google Tech TalksAn accessible and irreverent discussion of the Extended Mind article by Andy Clark and David Chalmers and the distributed cognition concept, on the Very Bad Wizards podcastPeter Thiel's favorite job interview question, as written up by QuartzThe original article on the primacy and precedence of (moral) emotions compared to reasoning - more accessible writeups are also easy to find online - The Emotional Dog and Its Rational Tail: A Social Intuitionist Approach to Moral Judgment, Jonathan Haidt, University of Virginia

Bob Marks and Gary Smith offer a range of startling examples of how the pressure to publish drives a lack of rigor — and sometimes honesty — in analyzing and presenting experimental data. The result is a never ending parade of headlines in health and medicine that are unwarranted and often reversed or impossible to replicate. Shownotes 01:00 | Data Read More › Source

Bob Marks and Gary Smith offer a range of startling examples of how the pressure to publish drives a lack of rigor — and sometimes honesty — in analyzing and presenting experimental data. The result is a never ending parade of headlines in health and medicine that are unwarranted and often reversed or impossible to replicate. Shownotes 01:00 | Data… Source

 In this short instalment of IdioFactoid, Levi clears up the myth behind water down the plug hole and Matt runs us through some Spurious Correlations.   Show notes on DRAINING WATER   Video on draining paddle pool https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mXaad0rsV38 Show notes on SPURIOUS CORRELATIONS   Spurious Correlations website: http://tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations Inhibitory Spillover Paper: https://lirias.kuleuven.be/bitstream/123456789/282526/3/MO_1007.pdf

This evening we discuss spurious correlations, dead or alive 2, and the Euro 2020 qualifying campaign with some seriously good bets at Fred and William Hill, neither of which came in. After the break there is a panel at MIT discussing whether sportsbooks ban winning players with a less than open representative from WH and we finish with a second editorial about the changes going on at bookiebashing recently. #thisisBig

This JSE Direct is proudly brought to you by IG, the specialists in CFD trading and a registered financial services provider. Simon Shares More delistings. I write about this for next weeks FinWeek. But it is expected and does indicate we're at (or near) a bottom with quality at really cheap valuations. Top40 just holding above 45,000 making us literally a few hundred points away from an official bear market locally. El Niño likelihood now at 70%, bad for food producers and consumers. I have found a website that tracks the likelihood, it Australian but weather don't care for borders.  Saudi Arabia oil chief says OPEC in ‘produce as much as you can’ mode and Brent drops to $76 after peaking at $84 recently. Bad news for Sasol* (JSE code: SOL) but coupled with ZAR at R14.40 potentially good news for consumers. Long4Life* (JSE code: L4L) results, they have cash and cash equivalents of R1.05bn, about 115c a share. Still mostly the old Holdsport business at 60% of revenue and 64% trading profit. Nu-World (JSE code: NWL) results show HEPS +11.5% and dividend +11.9%. Really good results in a very tough economy (helped by a swing in currency translation gains of some R46million). One concern is a bank overdraft of R133million, up from R59million and I always ask why an overdraft and not a formal loan structure? The stock is on a PE of under 5x and a dividend yield of over 6%, staggeringly cheap, but this has always been the case with this stock and the question is what will trigger a rerating higher? MTBPS R27.4bn revenue shortfall for 2018, and a R85bn shortfall in revenue over the next three years. Treasury revised down its growth projection for 2018 from 1.5% to 0.7%, rising to 2.3% in 2021. Debt as a percentage of GDP will continue rising, reaching 59% at the end of 2022, from 50.7% in 2016/17. Three items – white bread flour, cake flour and sanitary pads will be zero VAT rated from next year. "Demolish the walls between public and private sectors." Privatisation? IG CFD conversations Investing in listed property Upcoming events 01 November ~ JSE Power Hour: When does the bear market arrive?  08 November ~ Master Technical Analysis with Moxima Gama * I hold ungeared positions. Subscriber to our feed here Subscribe or review us in iTunes Correlation is not causation Correlation is when two things are seemingly linked but more important is causation when they really are linked and one leads to another. As humans we live by the mantra of 'what causes what' and this remains very important to our species, but we get it wrong far to often. Some are simple and correct, increasing earnings from a company will in time result in a higher share price. But in the short term all sorts of issues are driving price that most often have nothing to do with the state of the company underlying that share price. Hence stocks get cheap and expensive creating opportunity for investors. But we need to be very careful of linking events that while they seem linked are not linked. A great website Spurious Correlations has many correlations that have no bearing on each other. One example is “people who drowned after falling out of a fishing boat” correlates 95.24% with “marriage rates in Kentucky”. Now nobody really believes that in this example one causes the other. We're constantly being bombarded with data and trying to figure out what drives that data and what impact it'll have. Part of the problem here is the 24 hour instant news agenda. Markets move and news needs a reason beyond buyers vs. sellers. So we find a reason, one that seems to fit but may very likely not be true. The point here is two fold; Understand our desire as humans to link one event to another (think of the things we 'see' in the clouds). More often then not the links that we take for granted are weak at best and more likely Spurious. Be very skeptical about supposedly causation. Interrogate the logic and confirm it for yourself, don't just trust what seems right. JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.  

Japanese robots are hopping around on an asteroid, Linus Torvalds apologizes for being a jerk, and ARM chips have a new trick up their sleeves. All this and more on the latest GeekSpeak.Two Japanese robots are now happily hopping on an asteroidARM pointer authenticationA new antenna using single atoms could usher in the age of atomic radioI did a thing to convince myself the XS MAX 512 GB wasn't so expensiveA $1, Linux-Capable, Hand-Solderable ProcessorLKML: Linus Torvalds: Linux 4.19-rc4 released, an apology, and a maintainership noteAfter Years of Abusive E-mails, the Creator of Linux Steps AsideSpurious CorrelationsJohn Deere Just Swindled Farmers Out of Their Right to RepairCalifornia may ban terrible default passwords on connected devicesDoom 2’s impossible secret is discovered, 24 years later

On this week's Jacki Daily Show, Jacki is joined with Peter Doran, author of the book, Breaking Rockefeller: The Incredible Story of the Ambitious Rivals Who Toppled an Oil Empire. Jacki is also joined by Tyler Vigen, author of the book Spurious Correlations.

Sponsored by:Audible.com, the best place on the Internet for audiobooks. Listeners of British Android Havoc can get a free audiobook download and 30 day free trial! Over 180,000 titles to choose from for your iPhone, Android, Kindle or mp3 player. This week on British Android Havoc, we talk about all kinds of things, including the distraction economy and drugs. Show notes and links: Spurious Correlations (tylervigen.com). MAD (youtube.com). Abelard Lindsay: Creator of CILTEP® – #82 (bulletproofexec.com). XBrain, home of XBrain™ Whey Protein, XBrain ProTex™, XBrain Spectrum™, XanoreX™ (xbrain.co.uk).

Christina Sandefur (Tim the Lawyer's wife) talks about arguing against Obamacare; Spurious Correlations; More VA stuff; Bruce Springsteen sang "Royals" at a concert