Podcasts about Causation

We're calling "foul ball!" A spectator at a local minor league baseball game was injured when a foul ball zipped through a tear in the safety net and broke his arm. The spectator claims that the stadium owed him a safe environment, that it knew about the tear and didn't fix it, and that the mascot wasn't even that funny. To score, our litigant is going to have to run all four bases of the core elements of negligence: duty, breach, causation, and damages. Notable Timestamps [ 00:00 ] - A foul ball injury at a minor league game sets the stage for a negligence analysis, focusing on whether the stadium failed to maintain a safe environment after allegedly knowing about a damaged safety net. [ 05:02 ] - The first element of negligence is duty. A stadium generally owes spectators a duty of reasonable care, especially when protective measures such as safety netting are installed for fan protection. [ 05:40 ] - The second element is breach. If stadium personnel knew about a tear in the net and failed to repair it, that omission may constitute a breach of the duty owed to spectators. [ 08:56 ] - Causation requires a direct connection between the breach and the injury. The claimant must show the foul ball passed through the known defect and that the injury was a foreseeable result. [ 10:14 ] - A claimant's own actions can affect the analysis. Attempts to catch a foul ball, distraction, or impairment could introduce comparative or contributory negligence issues depending on state law. [ 11:24 ] - Damages are essential to a negligence claim. Even if a duty existed and was breached, recovery is unlikely without a measurable injury, financial loss, or other legally recognized harm. [ 12:11 ] - A personal auto accident example illustrates that negligence claims can fail despite a breach of duty when no injury or property damage occurs. Reaching only part of the negligence analysis is not enough. [ 13:15 ] - The discussion highlights how emotional distress claims can complicate matters. Jurisdictions differ on whether symptoms without clear bodily injury satisfy policy language or legal damage requirements. [ 14:43 ] - Not every liability case follows ordinary negligence rules. Certain ultra-hazardous activities or situations involving strict liability may shift the focus away from proving the traditional four negligence elements. [ 16:21 ] - The key lesson is that successful negligence claims require all four elements: duty, breach, causation, and damages. Missing any one element can prevent recovery, regardless of the strength of the others. Your PLRB Resources Introduction to Negligence Concepts https://members.plrb.org/education/courses/introduction-to-negligence-concepts Employees of member companies also have access to a searchable legal database, hundreds of hours of video trainings, building code materials, weather data, and even the ability to have your coverage questions answered by our team of attorneys (https://www.plrb.org/ask-plrb/) at no additional charge to you or your company. Subscribe to this Podcast Your Podcast App - Please subscribe and rate us on your favorite podcast app YouTube - Please like and subscribe at @plrb LinkedIN - Please follow at "Property and Liability Resource Bureau" Send us your Scenario! Please reach out to us at 630-509-8704 with your scenario! This could be your "adjuster story" sharing a situation from your claims experience, or a burning question you would like the team to answer. In any case, please omit any personal information as we will anonymize your story before we share. Just reach out to scenario@plrb.org.  Legal Information The views and opinions expressed in this resource are those of the individual speaker and not necessarily those of the Property & Liability Resource Bureau (PLRB), its membership, or any organization with which the presenter is employed or affiliated. The information, ideas, and opinions are presented as information only and not as legal advice or offers of representation. Individual policy language and state laws vary, and listeners should rely on guidance from their companies and counsel as appropriate. Music: "Piece of Future" by Keyframe_Audio. Pixabay. Pixabay License. Font: Metropolis by Chris Simpson. SIL OFL 1.1. Icons: FontAwesome (SIL OFL 1.1) and Noun Project (royalty-free licenses purchased via subscription). Sound Effects: Pixabay (Pixabay License) and Freesound.org (CC0).

Send us Fan Mail*How do you forecast an event that has never happened before?*How do you forecast an event that has never happened before?The recent closure and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz are unique events. For events like these, traditional risk models lose their statistical basis: repetition. Alexander Denev returns to the podcast to show how causal models (Bayesian networks) let us reason about rare events despite this limitation.In this episode, we cover:- Why value-at-risk and other correlation-based models break exactly when you need them most- How a causal structure can "hold in time"- Building scenarios with LLMs - benefits, drawbacks, and lessons learned- Historical analogy as a modeling tool: Bosphorus, Hormuz, and more- A three-way robustness test for any Bayesian network- How the model's call held up: a ceasefire, a still-closed strait, and lasting infrastructure damage keeping oil elevated"History doesn't repeat itself, but it rhymes."------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Video version available on the Youtube: https://youtu.be/FzKy2ws-7qsRecorded on May 29, 2026 in London, UK.------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------*About The Guest*Alexander Denev works at the intersection of quantitative finance, causality, and AI. He's the CEO of Turnleaf Analytics and the author of two books on applying Bayesian networks and probabilistic graphical models to finance and scenario analysis.Connect with Alexander:- Alexander on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/alexander-denev-66a25824/- Alexander's web page: https://turnleafanalytics.com/*About The Host*Aleksander (Alex) Molak is an independent machine learning researcher, educator, entrepreneur and a best-selling author in the area of causality (https://amzn.to/3QhsRz4 ).Connect with Alex:- Alex on the Internet: https://bit.ly/aleksander-molak*Links*Web- Alexander's LinkedIn post, Bayesian-network scenario for the Strait of Hormuz / Israel-Iran-US conflict: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/alexander-denev-66a25824_when-modelling-the-impact-of-events-that-share-7442892381668048896-JDs5/- Risk.net article, "Iran confusion makes the case for causal modelling": https://www.risk.net/our-take/7963361/iran-confusion-makes-the-case-for-causal-modellingBooks- Rebonato, R. & Denev, A. - Portfolio Management under Stress: A Bayesian-Net Approach to Coherent Asset Allocation (https://amzn.to/3vE6Jc1)- López de Prado, M. - Advances in Financial Machine Learning (https://amzn.to/3PXD8kH)- Molak, A. - Causal Inference and Discovery in Python (https://amzn.to/3VVK4m3)- Denev, A. - Probabilistic Graphical Models: A New Way of Thinking in Financial Modelling (https://amzn.to/3VQeLJm)- Pearl, J. & Mackenzie, D. - The Book of Why (recommended entry point) (https://amzn.to/4e0ATrZ)- Pearl, J. - Causality: Models, Reasoning and Inference (for advanced readers) (https://amzn.to/49zBKf5)- Rebonato, R. - Coherent Stress Testing: A Bayesian Approach to the Analysis of Financial Stress (https://amzn.to/3RC411e)*Perks & resources*

There is a deeply unhealthy, unbiblical view of God that treats Him like a cosmic vending machine. It tells us that if we follow the rules, God is obligated to bless us, but if we slip up, He’s waiting to zap us. The truth is, God cannot be manipulated, and His blessings can't be bought with our good behavior."

Is the AI job apocalypse a marketing strategy and not an economic forecast?It's nuanced, and today we tap into first wave stats for clarity.Correlation does Not imply Causation. The divergence is real, but timing also coincides with the Fed's aggressive rate hikes and sustained tightening. That said, AI is likely to reshape the labor market—not just in the number of jobs, but in the types of roles that exist - after giants clean up the BLOAT.People think the AI job crisis is about technology, but it's really about wealth inequality. - Scott GallowayPURE FACT. Every generation has its version of this story.The one where machines come for the jobs.Where the future arrives faster than people can adapt.Where the world you knew is about to end.This time around, the story has better PR and a much bigger budget — but underneath, it's the same script.I'm not saying this is nothing to worry about - we all feel the speed. In fact, the current evolution of AI is 300X faster than the Industrial Revolution. So….here's what I keep coming back to so we can understand the middle phase of the tech boom we are living through. The loudest voices warning us about the AI job apocalypse are also the people who profit most when we believe them.Anthropic's CEO says half of all entry-level white-collar jobs will be wiped out in five years.Elon says no job will be needed.Sam Altman wrote, before ChatGPT even launched, that the price of human labor was about to fall toward zero.Notice the pattern?The people predicting an extinction-level event are the same people building the asteroid and selling tickets to watch.We've Been Here BeforeThis panic isn't new.The Nobel-winning economist Robert Shiller has shown that fears about machines replacing humans helped fuel economic downturns in the 1800s.Science fiction later convinced people that automation caused the Great Depression.Computer panic deepened the recession of the early ‘80s.His point was simple.The damage doesn't usually come from the technology itself.It comes from the story we wrap around it.People feel pain from a normal recession, blame the machines, get more pessimistic, pull back further, and the story becomes the thing that creates the outcome it warned us about.That's exactly what I think is happening right now.AI is becoming a convenient cover story for layoffs that are really about over-hiring, inflation, and tariffs.Look at the numbers.U.S. tech employment grew from 8.7 million in 2020 to 9.6 million in 2023, then went flat.Not great.Not the apocalypse either.Meta's 10% cut is just bringing the company back to its 2021 size.Microsoft's 7% cut still leaves it 47% bigger than before the pandemic.Tesla announced it was hiring more, then laid off 10% of its workforce a month later — because of weak sales, not robots.This isn't the prelude to the end of work.It's a low-hire, low-fire labor market.That's it.Three Ways This Resurgence Plays OutScenario one: the bubble pops.The Mag 10 now make up 40% of the S&P.AI stocks have driven the majority of the market's returns since ChatGPT launched.If AI sneezes, the rest of the economy gets the flu.And when that recession comes, we'll blame AI for it — even though, historically, layoffs come in recessionary bursts, not the moment a new technology arrives.Scenario two: AI delivers, just slower than they say.When something gets dramatically cheaper, we don't use less of it.We find a million new uses for it.That's Jevons paradox.When the spreadsheet launched in 1979, everyone said accountants were finished.Instead, the profession quadrupled over the next 40 years.The same pattern shows up everywhere computers got adopted heavily — employment grew faster, not slower.Programmers today are coding less and thinking bigger.They've gone from construction workers to architects.The real question for any knowledge profession isn't “will AI replace this?”It's “is the human demand for analysis, judgment, and oversight elastic?”I think it is.And I think we're about to discover how much demand has been quietly waiting for the cost of execution to drop.Scenario three: the disruption outruns us.This is the scary one.AI hits every sector at once, no policy response, full collapse of the recovery cycle.But here's the part most people miss.Real societal upheaval almost never comes from unemployment.It comes from people who are working hard and still falling behind.From the loss of economic dignity.If that sounds familiar, trust your gut.We're already living in it.What's Really Going OnInside Silicon Valley, the mood is dark.People talk seriously about a “permanent underclass” and a “limited window” to build wealth before robots take over.I think this is a shared hallucination.The same people obsessed with AI's rapid capabilities are ignoring everything else about how economies, labor markets, and human demand actually work.And here's the tell.Only Americans earning over $200,000 a year see AI as a net positive.That's not a fact about AI.That's a fact about who has access to opportunity in this country.The AI jobs panic is just the newest scene in a much older story about wealth inequality.The real disruption isn't going to come from AI.It's going to come from the public finally noticing that the people warning us about the fire are the same ones selling the smoke detectors.The AI job apocalypse isn't an economic forecast.It's a marketing campaign.We're not watching the end of work.We're watching the monetization of fear.Life is so rich. Especially when you realize your inherent creative power and the evolution of our society has bright day's ahead of us. Not the doom - change, and fast? Yes, but the Universal Law of Order is always flowing from chaos to order. Your thoughts? Here's MY thoughts on AI brought to LIFE for REAL SOLUTIONS. How I view AI.....within the SPACE of the LIGHT Between Oracle Healing Journey.“Between stimulus and response there is a space. In that space is our power to choose our response. In our response lies our growth and our freedom.” - Viktor FranklThe Light Between is the conscious, sovereign light that we must maintain between our stimuli and responses. This is the light of discernment, wonder, and creativity - the light where humans truly thrive at our full capacity, rather than merely coping.I'm building a movement to advocate for preserving this vital light. Safeguarding this Light Between will enable the mindful and beneficial integration of AI into our lives.It is the wellspring of our agency, our ability to thoughtfully shape our responses to the world. Protecting and nourishing this Light is paramount as we navigate the increasing presence of artificial intelligence in our lives.In Closing…So if this lit up your heart and minds view of all the bright potential of transforming world of opportunity, then I'd love for you to experience the LIGHT BETWEEN ORACLE JOURNEY + INTUITIVE READINGS. Five Guides and a Five Layer Path…..to accelerate your intuition and problem solving. The Five-Layer Path integrates intention rituals, intuitive card draws, ancient wisdom teachings, somatic practices, and multidimensional exploration to support your journey. With your purchase, you gain access to:* Tailored Guidance: Personalized oracle readings to answer your questions.* Your Place of Power: Tools to discover and transform disempowering states.* Self Hypnosis: Techniques to rewire the subconscious, enhanced by the Neuro-Nature Self Hypnosis App.* Soul Prayer: Contemplative practices to deepen your connection to inner wisdom.* Poetic Insights: A space to save reflections for creative expression and meaning.* Five-Layer Path for Integration: A holistic approach combining intention, intuition, ancient teachings, somatic practices, and multidimensional awakening.Start for FREE and upgrade for deep awakenings and spiritual problem solving that resolves the daily self doubt and uncertainty. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thelightbetween.substack.com/subscribe

Are Millennials and Gen Z falling apart…or standing at the edge of a massive awakening? On this episode of Like It Matters Radio, Mr. Black tackles one of the biggest leadership and cultural questions of our time:Is the next generation a mess—or an opportunity? The statistics are staggering: Loneliness is skyrocketing Anxiety and depression are rising sharply Emotional intelligence is declining Purpose is collapsing Hope is eroding And the effects are showing up everywhere—from relationships and mental health to the workplace itself. Surveys reveal many business leaders see Gen Z as the most difficult generation to work with, citing struggles with communication, conflict resolution, motivation, and emotional resilience. But Mr. Black makes something very clear: This didn’t happen by accident. Through the lens of the Law of Causality and the Chain of Causation, this episode examines how culture, technology, isolation, and spiritual drift have shaped an entire generation. Drawing from Jonathan Cahn’s The Return of the Gods, Mr. Black connects major cultural and legal shifts to the broader battle over identity, values, and the soul of a nation. But this episode is not about condemnation.It’s about intervention. Joining the conversation is Garrett Bryant from Prayer at the Heart, sharing why many Gen Z young adults are turning back toward prayer, faith, and spiritual community in search of what social media, achievement, and endless comparison could never provide. Because underneath the anxiety is a deeper hunger: To belong To matter To find purpose To know truth Mr. Black closes with a direct challenge to leaders, parents, mentors, and believers: The time is NOW. We can still shape the next generation.We can still interrupt the cycle.We can still change eternal destinations. Because helpless and hopeless are not the final answer. This is an Hour of Power about leadership, culture, purpose, and the fight for the hearts and minds of the next generation. “If not you, then who?If not now, then when?” Inspiration. Education. Application.When you live your life like it matters… it does.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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The Unraveling Storm: America's Weather Agencies in Crisis (2025-2026) Times could be a few seconds off... Maybe even up to 15 seconds or so...00:00 Introduction: Transformation of US weather agencies by mid-2026.00:30 Human Cost: NWS staffing losses (Jan-Apr 2025), 600 staff gone.01:04 Critical Vacancies: Pendleton, OR overnight shifts; Houston management loss before hurricane season.01:25 Texas Hill Country Flooding (July 2025): 139 deaths, deadliest inland flood since 1976.02:10 Causal Debate: NWS vacancies vs. "hundred-year catastrophe" for Texas floods.02:37 Kentucky Tornadoes (May 2025): 18-20 deaths, 24-hour staffing cuts but voluntary surge.03:00 Kansas City Tornado Outbreak (2026): Delayed tornado watch (30 mins), linked to missing weather balloon data.03:26 Weather Balloons: Importance for forecasting, reduced launches.03:45 Intentions vs. Outcomes: Goal to surpass European models vs. deep budget cuts to research.04:17 Project 2025 & NOAA: Described as "climate change alarm industry," calls for breakup/downsizing.04:47 Norman, OK Radar Center: Misinformation on closure, minor administrative lease on termination list.05:05 Spanish Language Alerts: Contract lapse, gap in life-saving information.05:24 Disinformation & Trust Crisis: Hurricanes Helene & Milton rumors (aid, FEMA, aid withholding).06:05 Cloud Seeding Conspiracy: Rainmaker Technology, death threats, proposed felony.06:32 Project 2025 Deep Dive: Mandate for Leadership, Heritage Foundation, 900+ pages.07:00 Policy Proposals: Education Dept. closure, NPR/PBS restructuring, total ban on pornography.07:37 Loyalty Tests: Executive order support for federal roles, "Unleashing American Energy," ending DEI, "Restoring Gold Standard Science."08:05 Structural Transition: Workforce hollowing, commercialization of weather services.08:24 Administration vs. Critics: Efficiency/modernization vs. public safety dismantling.08:40 The Reality: Staffing losses, deaths, conspiracies, budget cuts, Project 2025 are real. Causation contested.09:05 Conclusion: Public trust fragility, stay weather aware.#WeatherCrisis#Project2025#NWSCuts#ClimateChangeAlarm#PublicSafety#Disinformation#ExtremeWeather#HurricaneSeason#StaffingShortage#FederalAgencies#WeatherForecasting#TexasFloods#TornadoOutbreak#TrustCrisis#GovernmentPolicy#ScienceFunding#MandateForLeadership#EmergencyResponse#EnvironmentalPolicy#DeepDiveReportBecome a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/weather-with-enthusiasm--4911017/support.This episode includes AI-generated content.

Ensuing Loss Explained: Steven M. Bush on Coverage, Causation & Policy Language   Attorney Steven M. Bush of Merlin Law Group delivers a deep training session on one of the most misunderstood areas of property insurance claims: ensuing loss, concurrent causation, efficient proximate cause, and anti-concurrent causation language. This session was part of the "Mastering the Art of Public Adjusting" class provided by United Claims Professionals, hosted by Jack Hanks, with the recording sponsored by ShieldWolf Strongholds. In this training, Steven M. Bush explains why public adjusters must do more than simply identify damage. They must understand how the policy language works, how exclusions operate, how coverage can be brought back through ensuing loss language, and how different jurisdictions may treat the same facts very differently. This session covers: • What "ensuing loss" really means • Why the excluded cause may not be the end of the coverage discussion • How to read policy language with purpose and intent • The difference between ensuing loss, concurrent causation, and efficient proximate cause • Why anti-concurrent causation language can change the entire claim analysis • Florida, Texas, and Illinois distinctions • Why Texas claims often require careful damage allocation • The role of weather forensics, photos, intake forms, and investigation • Why public adjusters must know the policy before arguing the claim Steven also shares a practical highlighting system for reading insurance policies, including how to identify coverages, exclusions, endorsements, post-loss obligations, and key restrictions. This is not a beginner-level conversation. It is a "meat, not milk" training designed for public adjusters who want to sharpen their craft, protect policyholders more effectively, and understand how coverage decisions are shaped by policy language, facts, causation, and jurisdiction. Featured Speaker: Steven M. Bush, Attorney Merlin Law Group Training Provided By: United Claims Professionals Hosted By: Jack Hanks Recording Sponsored By: ShieldWolf Strongholds Educational Disclaimer: This video is for educational purposes only and should not be considered legal advice. Public adjusters should consult qualified legal counsel regarding specific claims, policy interpretation, statutes, case law, and jurisdiction-specific issues. Suggested Chapters 00:00 Welcome to Mastering the Art of Public Adjusting 07:01 Steven M. Bush Introduction 09:40 What Is Ensuing Loss? 11:46 What Ensuing Loss Does and Does Not Cover 13:20 Policy Highlighting System for Public Adjusters 16:50 Two Purposes of an Ensuing Loss Clause 20:17 Separate and Independent Resulting Losses 22:11 Common Policy Language to Look For 23:32 Roof Leak Example: Faulty Workmanship and Interior Damage 26:01 Ensuing Loss vs. Concurrent Causation 27:40 Efficient Proximate Cause Explained 31:35 Why the Chain of Events Matters 40:49 Concurrent Causation Doctrine 43:52 Florida's Sebo Case Discussion 47:05 Texas Burden of Allocation 48:31 Weather Forensics in Texas Claims 52:21 Failure to Segregate Damages in Texas 56:54 Anti-Concurrent Causation Clauses 1:00:24 Common Exclusions and "In Any Sequence" Language 1:04:31 Wind, Flood, Ordinance, and Anti-Concurrent Causation 1:08:11 Florida vs. Texas Coverage Overview 1:09:42 Final Review: Ensuing Loss, EPC, and Concurrent Causation #PublicAdjusting #PropertyInsurance #InsuranceClaims #MerlinLawGroup #UnitedClaimsProfessionals #ShieldWolfStrongholds #EnsuingLoss #InsuranceCoverage #ClaimsTraining #PublicAdjusterTraining

Is it true that no enlightened person works in corporate? And if so—is that causation or just correlation?In this episode, I dig into that question from multiple angles and ultimately argue that it's not a coincidence. There's something fundamentally at odds between corporate structures and the human spirit. From hierarchy and incentives to language and culture, the system often prioritizes outcomes that can feel disconnected from deeper purpose, alignment, and truth.I explore how even seemingly harmless ideas—like “business is a game”—can subtly shape behavior in ways that become toxic over time. What starts as strategy can quickly turn into detachment, where people lose sight of impact, meaning, and even themselves.Drawing inspiration from Plato's Allegory of the Cave, I also look at the role of those who do engage with corporate environments. Much like the person who leaves the cave and returns, enlightened individuals may consult, advise, or influence—but rarely stay embedded long-term.Finally, this episode is a call to action. If you've ever felt that sense of misalignment—those quiet internal contradictions—this is about what to do with that awareness. Not to withdraw, but to become a catalyst for change.

Understanding causation is crucial in criminal law because it connects the defendant's actions to the harm that occurs. This episode provides a clear, detailed roadmap to navigate the complex doctrines of actual cause and proximate cause, equipping you to craft compelling exam answers and argue confidently in court.Most criminal cases hinge on one critical question: did the defendant's actions actually cause the final harm? But understanding causation isn't just about connecting dots—it's about mastering a precise legal architecture that distinguishes science from subjective judgment. This episode takes you deep into the complex, often counterintuitive world of criminal causation, revealing how the law maps the physical reality of actions onto society's notions of fairness and justice.Imagine two men at trial: one fires a bullet but walks free because of legal technicalities, while another's minor act unexpectedly results in a death that seems impossible to link. These paradoxes expose the core challenge—how does the law draw the line between cause and blame? We break down the golden chain model, a sophisticated mental framework that visualizes liability from the initial act to the final harm, emphasizing its fragile, tension-filled nature. You'll discover:Why the but-for test often catches everyone but fails to deliver moral clarityHow legal doctrines like substantial factor and specific result tests refine the chain in multi-defendant scenariosThe crucial difference between intervening acts, superseding causes, and natural environmental factors like lightningHow the eggshell skull rule makes defendants liable for all consequences, regardless of the victim's hidden vulnerabilitiesWhy the debate over factual science versus societal morality raises profound questions about whether causation is law's objective backbone or just a societal mirror reflecting biasThis episode is essential listening for law students, criminal justice enthusiasts, or anyone grappling with the question of who's really responsible—because the stakes extend beyond the courtroom. You'll come away with a clear, step-by-step strategy to dissect complex causation questions on exams and in court: start with the physics, then evaluate foreseeability, classify intervening acts, and always account for the eggshell plaintiff principle. Mastering these principles ensures you understand that causation in law is as much about fairness and societal values as it is about science.If you want to see through the legal façade and understand whether causation is objective law or societal storytelling, this episode is your definitive guide. It's legal insight that challenges you to see causation not just as a rule but as an ongoing moral conversation—one that determines life, death, and justice itself.

Reuben Stern on when interventions are evidence for their non-effects.Read the essay here

SPONSORS: - Sign up for Claude today at https://Claude.ai/theoriesofeverything and checkout Claude Pro — which includes access to all of the features mentioned in today's episode - Go to https://shortform.com/toe for a free trial and an exclusive $50 OFF on your annual subscription. - I subscribe to The Economist for their science and tech coverage. As a TOE listener, get 35% off! No other podcast has this: https://economist.com/TOE George Ellis is one of those guests who makes you rethink what you thought you understood. Co-author with Stephen Hawking of the singularity theorems, he's spent decades insisting on something most physicists won't touch: that reductionism is simply — patently — false. Physics doesn't decide outcomes. Context does. The thermostat sets the temperature. The algorithm tells the electrons what to do. The physics is the servant, not the master. FOLLOW: - Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4gL14b92xAErofYQA7bU4e - Substack: https://curtjaimungal.substack.com/subscribe - Twitter: https://twitter.com/TOEwithCurt - Discord Invite: https://discord.com/invite/kBcnfNVwqs - Crypto: https://commerce.coinbase.com/checkout/de803625-87d3-4300-ab6d-85d4258834a9 - PayPal: https://www.paypal.com/donate?hosted_button_id=XUBHNMFXUX5S4 TIMESTAMPS: - 00:00:00 - Reductionism is Patently False - 00:07:37 - Top-Down Causation Mechanics - 00:13:46 - Modular Hierarchical Structures - 00:21:00 - Causation at Emergent Levels - 00:26:56 - Universal Biological Principles - 00:36:07 - Critiquing Penrose and CCC - 00:42:41 - The Physics of Infinity - 00:48:50 - Agency and Physical Constraints - 00:56:08 - The Open Future - 01:07:23 - Bioelectricity and Goal-Directedness - 01:12:28 - Evolving Block Universe - 01:19:32 - Multiverse as Metaphysics - 01:24:49 - Moral Realism as Data LINKS MENTIONED: - George's Papers: https://inspirehep.net/authors/1010821 - George's Books: https://amazon.com/stores/George-Francis-Rayner-Ellis/author/B00287T2PW - Arrow of Time [Paper]: https://arxiv.org/abs/1302.7291 - Why Reductionism Does Not Work [Paper]: https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-662-63187-4_6 - Recognizing Top-Down Causation [Paper]: https://arxiv.org/abs/1212.2275 - Top-Down Causation by Information Control [Paper]: https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC3226993/ - Causal Closure of Physics [Paper]: https://arxiv.org/abs/2006.00972 - Issues in Philosophy of Cosmology [Paper]: https://arxiv.org/abs/astro-ph/0602280 - The Music of Life [Book]: https://amazon.com/dp/0199228361?tag=toe08-20 - How Can Physics Underlie the Mind? [Book]: https://amazon.com/dp/3662498073?tag=toe08-20 - Large Scale Structure of Space-Time [Book]: https://amazon.com/dp/0521099064?tag=toe08-20 - The Selfish Gene [Book]: https://amazon.com/dp/0199291152?tag=toe08-20 - World Beyond Physics [Book]: https://amazon.com/dp/0190871334?tag=toe08-20 - Contextual Wavefunction Collapse [Paper]: https://arxiv.org/abs/1807.08171 - A Theory of Biological Relativity [Paper]: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/23386960/ - Facing Up to the Problem of Consciousness [Paper]: https://consc.net/papers/facing.pdf - Denis Noble [TOE]: https://youtu.be/K-U-ZB3yHK4 - Michael Levin [TOE]: https://youtu.be/c8iFtaltX-s - Sean Carroll [TOE]: https://youtu.be/9AoRxtYZrZo - Quantum Physics, Digital Computers, and Life [Paper]: https://arxiv.org/abs/2403.06306 - Dynamical Emergence of Biology from Physics [Paper]: https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/physiology/articles/10.3389/fphys.2018.01966/full - The Whole Truth [Book]: https://amazon.com/dp/0691231354?tag=toe08-20 - Endless Forms Most Beautiful [Book]: https://amazon.com/dp/0393327795?tag=toe08-20 - Topology and Cosmology [Paper]: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/BF02450512 More links at https://curtjaimungal.substack.com Guests do not pay to appear. #science Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Retired FBI Special Agent Jennifer Coffindaffer — with decades of experience building federal cases and reading witness behavior — joins Tony Brueski to analyze the next phase of the D4VD case and what the defense team's public statement actually reveals.Burke's attorneys specifically stated he "was not the cause" of Celeste Rivas Hernandez's death. Not that he was uninvolved. Not that he didn't know her. Coffindaffer dissects the legal architecture of that denial — what it concedes, what it protects, and how prosecutors will have to work around it.She also examines the witness pattern: a manager who allegedly testified for three days and was reportedly overheard saying his job was to keep the tour going, a female witness who went into hiding, and an associate who allegedly fled to Montana. Coffindaffer explains what that collective behavior communicates to investigators and how it shapes the prosecution's strategy.With the grand jury having declined to indict and the DA now reviewing the case for formal charges, this conversation maps the legal terrain ahead — including whether a prosecution can survive a jury knowing that another panel already said no.Join Our SubStack For AD-FREE ADVANCE EPISODES & EXTRAS!: https://hiddenkillers.substack.com/Want to comment and watch this podcast as a video? Check out our YouTube Channel. https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC8-vxmbhTxxG10sO1izODJg?sub_confirmation=1Instagram https://www.instagram.com/hiddenkillerspod/Facebook https://www.facebook.com/hiddenkillerspod/Tik-Tok https://www.tiktok.com/@hiddenkillerspodX Twitter https://x.com/TrueCrimePodThis publication contains commentary and opinion based on publicly available information. All individuals are presumed innocent until proven guilty in a court of law. Nothing published here should be taken as a statement of fact, health or legal advice.#D4VD #CelesteRivasHernandez #JenniferCoffindaffer #FBI #D4VDDefense #GrandJury #WitnessBehavior #TrueCrime #HiddenKillersLive #DavidBurke

Tu galères à te fixer des objectifs précis ?T'avances plutôt à l'instinct, sans forcément savoir où tu vas ?Bonne nouvelle : t'es pas seul·e. Et… c'est même documenté.Dans cette MM, je te parle d'un concept développé par la chercheuse Saras Sarasvathy : les deux grandes logiques entrepreneuriales.La causation (partir d'un but clair) vs l'effectuation (faire avec ce qu'on a et voir ce que ça donne).Tu vas voir, c'est pas du développement perso flou, c'est de la vraie recherche.Tu me diras si ça te parle? Tu dirais que ta logique à toi, elle est plus Causale ou Effectuale?(Pour me répondre, envoie-moi un mp sur Linkedin 

This week on Driving Law, Paul Doroshenko is joined by articling student Alice while Kyla Lee is away, tackling several important developments in impaired driving law. They break down a B.C. Supreme Court decision on causation in impaired driving causing bodily harm, where the court confirmed that impairment alone is not enough—there must be a causal connection between the impairment and the accident. They also discuss a Court of Appeal update on Dancho, highlighting the risks of handling traffic matters without legal advice, and explore a growing issue in modern law: whether conversations with AI are protected (spoiler—currently, they are not). Plus, a Ridiculous Driver of the Week involving a Tesla autopilot incident at a railway crossing. Check out the "Lawyer Told Me Not To Talk To You" T-shirts and hoodies at Lawyertoldme.com and "Sit Still Jackson" at sitstilljackson.com.

Rosalind English talks to Jacob Turner, barrister at Fountain Court Chambers, and Michael Workman, former lawyer at the Law Commission. Both are AI experts who have taken part in assembling the UK Jurisdiction Taskforce draft Legal Statement regarding liability for AI-related harm in England and Wales, pertaining to private law.Law Pod UK is published by 1 Crown Office Row. Supporting articles are published on the UK Human Rights Blog. Follow and interact with the podcast team on Twitter.

Send us Fan MailCausality, Experimentation, and MarketplacesMeet Lawrence de Geest (Zoox, ex-Lyft, ex-NBA), a former soccer player and an ex-NBA data scientist, who fell in love with marketplaces, despite the fact he hated math.In the episode we ponder how to deal with causality when our interventions change the dynamics of the environment we intervene upon, what to do with SUTVA violations, and how to design efficient quasi-experiments.- Why simple A/B tests fail at marketplaces- How reversing synthetic controls logic can help us design better experiments- Why Lawrence thinks that average treatment effect is just a snapshot of here and now- How Magellan used data science to prove that Portugal was harvesting spices on Spanish territory------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Video version available on YouTube: https://youtu.be/acCy16L33tURecorded in 2026 in San Francisco, USA.------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------About The GuestLawrence De Geest is an economist and data scientist at Zoox. He was previously a data scientist at Lyft and the NBA, and before joining industry, an Assistant Professor at Suffolk University, with visiting appointments at Boston College and the University of San Francisco. His main research interests are marketplaces, collective action and experimentation. Outside of work he loves biking, surfing, and playing with his dog.Connect with Lawrence:- Lawrence on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lawrence-de-geest-21a206a/- Lawrence's web page: https://lrdegeest.github.io/About The HostAleksander (Alex) Molak is an independent machine learning researcher, educator, entrepreneur and a best-selling author in the area of causality (https://amzn.to/3QhsRz4 ).Connect with Alex:- Alex on the Internet: https://bit.ly/aleksander-molakSupport the showCausal Bandits PodcastCausal AI || Causal Machine Learning || Causal Inference & DiscoveryWeb: https://causalbanditspodcast.comConnect on LinkedIn:   https://www.linkedin.com/in/aleksandermolak/Join Causal Python Weekly: https://causalpython.io  The Causal Book: https://amzn.to/3QhsRz4

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"Could your daily habits be the hidden cause of memory loss and cognitive decline?" Emerging Alzheimer's research suggests that Nitric Oxide acts as a master signaling molecule for brain health, yet common products like antiseptic mouthwash and fluoride may be inhibiting its production. In this episode, I am joined by molecular medicine expert Dr. Nathan S. Bryan to explore the vascular roots of dementia and why some researchers now refer to Alzheimer's as "Type 3 Diabetes." We dive into the surprising link between chronic antacid use and brain health, while offering simple lifestyle changes—from nasal breathing to dietary shifts—to help you boost Nitric Oxide naturally and protect your cognitive longevity. Furthermore, we discuss how common products like antiseptic mouthwash and fluoride may actually inhibit your natural production. We also dive into the surprising link between chronic antacid use and a higher risk of Alzheimer's disease. Fortunately, simple lifestyle changes can help restore these vital levels. For example, nasal breathing and specific dietary shifts can significantly boost your Nitric Oxide naturally. Although these ideas may challenge your current beliefs, being curious is the first step toward prevention. Join us as we investigate the root causes of chronic disease and the science of longevity. Our Guest: Dr. Nathan S. Bryan Dr. Nathan S. Bryan is an international leader in molecular medicine and the "billion-dollar scientist" behind the nitric oxide revolution. With over 25 years in the field and 100+ peer-reviewed articles, he was recruited to the University of Texas by a Nobel Laureate to decode the biochemistry of human longevity. As an entrepreneur and inventor with dozens of patents, Dr. Bryan has moved beyond the lab to build clinical-stage therapies for heart disease, Alzheimer's, and chronic wounds. Today, he serves as the CEO of Bryan Therapeutics, where he continues to bridge the gap between complex biochemistry and life-changing consumer products. Episode Chapters & Timestamps 00:00 – The "What If" Challenge: Introduction to the Nitric Oxide revolution. 02:15 – Meet the Expert: Dr. Nathan Bryan's journey from Texas to the Nobel connection. 05:40 – The Molecule of Life: What is Nitric Oxide and why does it matter? 09:25 – Vascular Roots: Why Alzheimer's is now being called "Type 3 Diabetes." 13:10 – The Failure of Current Drugs: Why targeting amyloid plaques hasn't worked. 17:45 – The Root Cause: How loss of blood flow leads to cognitive decline. 21:30 – Association vs. Causation: Challenging the medical industry's profit model. 26:40 – The Mouthwash Connection: How daily habits are killing your Nitric Oxide. 30:15 – Fluoride & Antacids: Hidden neurotoxins in your medicine cabinet. 34:50 – Fueling the Brain: The sugar toxin and the power of high-protein diets. 38:10 – The Fasting Miracle: Using 18-hour fasts to reset your metabolic health. 42:00 – Nasal Breathing & Sunlight: Simple, free ways to boost brain blood flow. 46:30 – Biology vs. Genetics: Why your genes are not your destiny. 48:45 – Take Action: Where to find Dr. Bryan's research and resources. 50:30 – Final Thoughts: Jennifer's takeaway on being a "curious skeptic." Sign Up for more Advice & Wisdom - email newsletter. ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Please help us keep our show going by supporting our sponsors. Thank you. ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Feeling overwhelmed? HelpTexts can be your pocket therapist. Going through a tough time? HelpTexts offers confidential support delivered straight to your phone via text message. Whether you're dealing with grief, caregiving stress, or just need a mental health boost, their expert-guided texts provide personalized tips and advice. Sign up for a year of support and get: Daily or twice-weekly texts tailored to your situation Actionable strategies to cope and move forward Support for those who care about you (optional) HelpTexts makes getting help easy and convenient. ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Make Your Brain Span Match Your LifeSpan Relevate from NeuroReserve I've been focusing a lot on taking care of my brain health, & I've found this supplement called RELEVATE to be incredibly helpful. It provides me with 17 nutrients that support brain function & help keep me sharp. Since you're someone I care about, I wanted to share this discovery with you. You can order it with my code: FM15 & get 15% OFF your order. With Relevate nutritional supplement, you get science-backed nutrition to help protect your brain power today and for years to come. You deserve a brain span that lasts as long as your lifespan. ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Join Fading Memories On Social Media! If you've enjoyed this episode, please share this podcast with other caregivers! You'll find us on social media at the following links. Instagram Twitter LinkedIn  Facebook Contact Jen at hello@fadingmemoriespodcast.com or Visit us at www.FadingMemoriesPodcast.com

On this week's episode of Educational Insights, Trey Booth explains the critical difference between correlation and causation in investing. While many market trends appear connected, like certain stocks rising alongside the broader market, he highlights why moving in the same direction doesn't necessarily mean one causes the other. By looking beyond surface-level data and digging into the underlying drivers of market behavior, investors can better understand the real forces influencing their decisions. Watch to learn more. Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF® Chief Investment Officer Wealth Consultant Email Trey Booth here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. A Roth IRA offers tax deferral on any earnings in the account. Qualified withdrawals of earnings from the account are tax-free. Withdrawals of earnings prior to age 59 ½ or prior to the account being opened for 5 years, whichever is later, may result in a 10% IRS penalty tax. Limitations and restrictions may apply. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.The post Correlation and Causation first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

What if the injury isn't the problem… but the way we've been taught to treat it is?In a system designed to move fast, suppress symptoms, and default to surgery, we rarely pause long enough to ask a better question.What is the body actually trying to do?In this episode of ALLSMITH, Bryce sits down with Dr. Ronald Torrance II , a non surgical orthopedic physician with Regenexx, to explore the evolving landscape of regenerative medicine, orthobiologics, and human performance.From PRP and stem cells to bone marrow concentrate and peptides, this conversation unpacks the tools that are reshaping how we think about recovery, pain, and long term health. Together, they dive into why surgery is often the first option presented, how modern research can be influenced by funding and bias, and how social media is quietly becoming a new front door into healthcare decisions.This is not about rejecting medicine.This is about refining it.Understanding it.And reclaiming ownership of your body in a world full of noise.⸻Call to ActionIf this conversation shifts your perspective, share it with someone navigating injury, recovery, or confusion in their health journey.Follow @allsmithco and explore coaching, community, and lifestyle design at www.allsmith.co.Subscribe to ALLSMITH for more conversations around performance, mindset, health, and modern living.⸻Key Takeaways• The body is designed to heal, but it needs the right environment and inputs• PRP, stem cells, and bone marrow concentrate are tools that support regeneration, not magic fixes• Precision matters. Where and how treatments are applied changes outcomes• Surgery has a place, but it is often overutilized as a first option• Peptides are emerging as a powerful but still evolving space in recovery and performance• Not all medical studies are created equal. Funding and design shape outcomes• Correlation does not equal causation, yet it drives much of public belief• Social media is influencing healthcare decisions more than ever before• Healthcare pricing lacks transparency and creates confusion for patients• The future of medicine is moving toward personalization, prevention, and regeneration⸻Timestamps00:00 The Injury Lie and Why Surgery Became the Default03:10 Who Is Dr. Ron Torrance? Athlete to Physician07:20 DO vs MD and the Osteopathic Philosophy11:40 What Is PRP Really? Breaking Down the Science18:30 Stem Cells vs Bone Marrow Concentrate Explained26:50 Precision Medicine and Image Guided Treatments32:10 When Surgery Is Necessary vs Avoidable38:45 The Truth About Medical Research and Bias46:20 Correlation vs Causation in Health Studies52:30 Social Media and the Rise of “DIY Healthcare”58:40 Healthcare Costs, Insurance, and Cash Pay Reality01:04:20 Peptides and the Future of Recovery01:10:30 Nutrition, the Food Pyramid, and Modern Confusion01:15:40 The Future of Medicine and Human Performance⸻We've been taught to look at the body like something that breaks.But maybe it's something that adapts.Something that responds.Something that, when given the right inputs, can rebuild stronger than before.The question isn't just…what's wrong?The question is…what's possible?This is ALLSMITH.Forged. Not found.Thank you for Listening! Learn more below.ALLSMITH IG ALLSMITH YouTubeBryce Smith IG

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Job searching can make you feel a little superstitious. One person swears a specific resume template got them hired. Someone else says it was the follow-up email. Another is convinced one “brilliant” question in the interview sealed the deal.But we have to remember: correlation does not equal causation!!!In this week's episode, Sarah and Emma unpack the urge to assign a single cause to a complex outcome.We break down why our brains love to create neat little stories (hello, confirmation bias), especially when so much of the hiring process feels outside our control. We explain why those conclusions are often oversimplified, and sometimes completely wrong.If you've ever gone down a Reddit rabbit hole trying to reverse-engineer someone else's success, this episode will bring you back to earth in the best way. The truth about landing a job is usually far less sexy than “one weird trick."

Tim Maudlin is Professor of Philosophy at NYU and Founder and Director of the John Bell Institute for the Foundations of Physics. Jacob Barandes is Senior Preceptor in Physics at Harvard University, where he works widely across the philosophy of physics, with focuses on the foundations of quantum mechanics, the philosophy of spacetime, and the metaphysics of laws. In this episode, Robinson, Tim, and Jacob discuss Jacob's novel approach to quantum mechanics, which he calls the “Indivisible Approach”. More particularly, they discuss the problems at the core of quantum mechanics, the ontology of the theory, causality and quantum phenomena, probability, and more. If you're interested in the foundations of physics, then please check out the JBI, which is devoted to providing a home for research and education in this important area. Any donations are immensely helpful at this early stage in the institute's life.Tim's Website: www.tim-maudlin.siteThe John Bell Institute: https://www.johnbellinstitute.orgJacob's Website: https://www.jacobbarandes.comThe Stochastic-Quantum Correspondence: https://philosophyofphysics.lse.ac.uk/articles/10.31389/pop.186Historical Debates over the Physical Reality of the Wave Function: https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.09397Pilot-Wave Theories as Hidden Markov Models: https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.10569OUTLINE00:21 The Problems at the Foundations of Quantum Mechanics13:00 More on the Problems26:09 Is the Wave Function a Real Thing?32:48 Causation, Correlation, and Quantum Mechanics42:03 Terminological Issues44:34 Causal Models and the Markov Condition01:00:57 Can Time Exist Without Change?01:15:00 On Time and Change01:30:38 Newtonian Mechanics and the Markov Condition1:45:00 More on Newtonian Mechanics2:00:00 More on the Markov Condition02:17:49 Tim's Response02:28:18 Philosophy and Physics02:32:38 More on Probability02:42:13 Probability and the Double Slit Experiment 02:59:42 Why Tim Remains PuzzledRobinson's Website: http://robinsonerhardt.comRobinson Erhardt researches symbolic logic and the foundations of mathematics at Stanford University, where he is also a JD candidate in the Law School.

What is consciousness — and how should biology explain it?In this second conversation with Professor Kevin Mitchell, we examine whether consciousness can be fully accounted for within physics alone — or whether biological organization introduces new levels of explanation.Mitchell develops a non-reductive naturalist framework in which organisms are genuine agents, higher-level causal structures matter, and subjectivity cannot be ignored in any adequate theory of mind.We explore:• What needs explaining when we talk about consciousness• The limits and strengths of physicalist reduction• Weak vs strong emergence• Biological organization as a causal framework• Downward causation and levels of explanation• Organisms as agents rather than passive mechanisms• The role of the conscious subject• Mental causation and explanatory gaps• Teleology in evolutionary systems• Whether artificial systems could instantiate subjectivityTIMESTAMPS:(0:00) – Introduction(0:32) – Kevin's Approach to Consciousness(1:12) – Consciousness and the Requirement of a Subject(3:59) – AI, Functionalism, & Biological Naturalism(7:37) – Embodiment, In-Mindedness & Experiential Bedrock(11:19) – Control Architectures, Attention, and Illusionism(15:21) – Selfhood Perspectives: Jennings, Graziano & Humphrey(19:08) – Temporal Continuity & Brains as Semantic Engines(23:03) – Top-Down Causation and Dynamical Self(27:00) – Levels of Selfhood & Autobiographical Continuity(30:43) – Neuroscience, Psychiatry & Emergent Mental Phenomena(38:15) – Altered Subjectivity & Embodiment in Injury(44:06) – Life, Consciousness, and AI Agents(50:23) – Philosophy, Science & Indeterminacy(56:28) – Neural Noise, Decision-Making & Agency(1:10:48) – Reasons, Choices & Moral Development(1:20:43) – Emergence, Transcendence & First-Person Neuroscience(1:26:50) – Kantian Structures & Perception(1:30:35) – Defining Mind & Relational Perspectives(1:34:52) – Final ThoughtsEPISODE LINKS:- Kevin's Round 1: https://youtu.be/UdlkYGbuD7Q- Kevin's Website: https://www.kjmitchell.com/- Kevin's Blog: http://www.wiringthebrain.com- Kevin's Books: https://tinyurl.com/2p9yjzxr- Kevin's Publications: https://tinyurl.com/mskdpvce- Kevin's Twitter: https://twitter.com/wiringthebrain- Consciousness needs a subject:https://philpapers.org/rec/MITCNA-2- Reframing the free will debate: the universe is not deterministic:https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11229-026-05455-7- Beyond Mechanism—Extending Our Concepts of Causation in Neuroscience:https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/ejn.70064- Undetermined: Free will in real time and through time:https://dialnet.unirioja.es/servlet/articulo?codigo=10358095- The origins of meaning - from pragmatic control signals to semantic representations:https://osf.io/preprints/psyarxiv/dfkrvCONNECT:- Website: https://mindbodysolution.org - YouTube: https://youtube.com/@mindbodysolution- Podcast: https://creators.spotify.com/pod/show/mindbodysolution- Twitter: https://twitter.com/drtevinnaidu- Facebook: https://facebook.com/drtevinnaidu - Instagram: https://instagram.com/drtevinnaidu- LinkedIn: https://linkedin.com/in/drtevinnaidu- Website: https://tevinnaidu.com=============================Disclaimer: The information provided on this channel is for educational purposes only. The content is shared in the spirit of open discourse and does not constitute, nor does it substitute, professional or medical advice. We do not accept any liability for any loss or damage incurred from you acting or not acting as a result of listening/watching any of our contents. You acknowledge that you use the information provided at your own risk. Listeners/viewers are advised to conduct their own research and consult with their own experts in the respective fields.

Rob Hoos is back! Three years after our first viral interview (50k+ views), we dive deep into his latest research on airflow, cultivars, and roasting physics.

MY NEWSLETTER - https://nikolas-newsletter-241a64.beehiiv.com/subscribeJoin me, Nik (https://x.com/CoFoundersNik), as I interview Jon Matzner (https://x.com/MatznerJon). In this episode, we dive into the "Matzner Mind" and Jon's unique approach to satirizing business influencers and gurus without being malicious. We discuss why building a massive following is often a trap, and why niche communities defined by influence and affluence are far more valuable than broad attention.The conversation heats up when we get into a serious debate about the SBA (Small Business Administration). Jon challenges me on whether SBA loans are just a "subsidy for boomers" and an inappropriate use of government force, while I argue they are a vital tool for economic mobility for entrepreneurs like myself. We wrap up by discussing why you should document your journey as a "fellow traveler" rather than trying to be an expert while building your business.Questions This Episode Answers:Why is having influence and affluence in a niche audience more valuable than millions of views?Is the SBA a necessary tool for entrepreneurs or an unethical use of taxpayer dollars?How can you critique business gurus and influencers effectively without being a "hater"?Why is distribution considered the only defensible moat in the age of AI?Why should founders create content about their struggles instead of just sharing "how-to" advice?Enjoy the conversation!__________________________Love it or hate it, I'd love your feedback.Please fill out this brief survey with your opinion or email me at nik@cofounders.com with your thoughts.__________________________MY NEWSLETTER: https://nikolas-newsletter-241a64.beehiiv.com/subscribeSpotify: https://tinyurl.com/5avyu98yApple: https://tinyurl.com/bdxbr284YouTube: https://tinyurl.com/nikonomicsYT__________________________This week we covered:00:00 The Importance of Pointy Opinions03:04 Influencers and Satire in Business06:02 Building a Brand Through Authenticity09:00 The Value of Distribution and Attention11:49 Influence and Affluence in Community Building14:46 The Role of Authority in Marketing18:11 The Podcast as an Intimate Medium21:03 Debating the SBA Loan Program24:29 Understanding the SBA: A Boomer Subsidy or Entrepreneurial Support?26:21 The Role of the SBA in Economic Mobility28:47 National Defense and Economic Supremacy: A Dual Perspective30:45 The Impact of Government on Monopolies and Economic Mobility32:34 Causation vs. Correlation in Economic Growth34:56 Healthcare Costs and Government Intervention36:49 The SBA's Structure and Its Implications39:14 The Debate on Government Involvement in Business Loans42:35 Prioritizing Government Reforms: Where Should Focus Lie?46:30 The Importance of Personal Journey in Entrepreneurship

Don't just listen, call in with your perspective at 303-477-5600 or text to 307-200-8222 Monday - Friday from 3pm - 6 pm MT. Hour 1 of https://RushToReason.com opens with John Rush setting a blunt, no-nonsense tone about reality, responsibility, and hard truths—then quickly moves into logic, politics, and power. An “impossible question” sparks a broader discussion about the danger of confusing correlation with causation, especially in political narratives. The hour intensifies with a deep dive into U.S. global leadership and NATO, arguing that America's strength—and restraint—has made it the least imperialistic superpower in history. Can Europe truly defend itself without the U.S., and why do critics at home benefit from the power they condemn? From there, John and Andy confront internal Republican fractures, dissecting claims from Marjorie Taylor Greene on immigration, ICE, and “uniparty” politics. Are purity tests and viral outrage helping conservatives—or undermining their own leverage? A heated discussion follows on protests, firearms, and law enforcement, drawing sharp lines between principle and dangerous real-world consequences. The hour closes with an economic warning shot at Canada's leadership, trade threats, and reliance on money printing. Is Canada facing a temporary bump—or a delayed collapse? With global economics, party infighting, and uncomfortable questions about power and accountability, Hour 1 pulls no punches. HOUR 2 Hour 2 of Rush To Reason features a deep-dive conversation with Jim D'Arezzo , president of Aquaterex (https://aquaterrex.com/), unpacking one of the most overlooked issues behind AI expansion: water. As data centers explode across the country—often in arid regions—Jim explains why energy costs, regulation, and location matter more than rainfall, and why vast deep-groundwater reserves could change everything. Is America really running out of water, or are we fighting over the wrong supply? Listeners then weigh in from across the country, challenging where AI centers are built and why states rich in water and power still lose out. John and Andy examine the hidden tradeoffs: massive electricity demand, limited permanent jobs, labor shortages, and policies that quietly push investment elsewhere. The hour closes by zooming out to global risk, reacting to the updated Doomsday Clock and questioning whether today's warnings reflect real danger—or political fear. With technology, infrastructure, economics, and geopolitics colliding, Hour 2 asks a provocative question: are we preparing for the future—or misreading the threats entirely? Guest Timestamps * Jim D'Arezzo - 1:16 HOUR 3 Hour 3 of Rush To Reason opens with a hard-hitting discussion of national security and the rule of law featuring Jim Pfaff of the Conservative Caucus (https://theconservativecaucus.com/). The conversation centers on violent anti-ICE protests, alleged coordinated funding networks, and the legal realities surrounding firearms, protests, and split-second law-enforcement decisions. Where does lawful behavior end—and reckless interference begin? John and Andy then pivot to a broader warning about political activism, arguing that protests rarely change policy and often escalate risk for both citizens and officers. The hour takes a sharp inward turn as they dissect internal Colorado GOP dysfunction, laying out a detailed critique of former leadership and the long-term damage caused by conflicts of interest, power grabs, and party infighting. The message is blunt: Republicans won't win by rage, mobs, or internal sabotage—but through disciplined leadership, credible candidates, and restoring trust. With tensions rising nationally and locally, Hour 3 asks a sobering question: are we serious about fixing what's broken, or just fueling the chaos? Guest Timestamps * Jim Pfaff – 1:15

This is Part 9 in a series celebrating the 40th Anniversary of Harvard University Press' 1985 publication of Richard A. Epstein's "Takings: Private Property and the Power of Eminent Domain." We continue our celebration of this anniversary with a fair use and transformative reading, continuing and now finishing chapter 4 in a new section which Richard calls ""Takings Prima Facia," which makes the analogy between private law takings in the common law harm tradition and the public law takings where the government is a defendant. He titles chapter "Takings and Torts," because he's taking a look at political philosophy and the American constitutional order, how these things interact using argument by analogy with the common law/private law tradition, ensconced as it is in the purpose of the Constitution. That moral purpose is the protection of individual liberty against claims by a simple majority in a democracy, or by the government in a taking of private property. Today we discuss the subsections of Proximate Causation and Consequential Damages from pp. 47 to the end of the chapter on p. 56. At the end, this episode concludes with a reading of Psalm 33 in the NASB version. Excellent stuff here. Excellent. Every college student should read this book. It's a superb introduction to the political philosophy of the American regime. Praise the Lord. We'd like to thank Harvard University Press for making this material available and Richard Epstein for writing it. Make sure you buy the book and follow along. It's very important for you to have your own copy on your own bookshelf, and to begin to master this material. Support your local book dealer. See if they have a copy of it, or if they'd mind keeping an eye out for you. I always encourage buying physical books, objects you can have, hold, cherish, learn from, display on your bookshelf as a topic of conversation, things you can pass on to the next generation with your notes in them, things that do not depend upon electricity. Toward that end: Go to Harvard University Press for more selections available for purchase. Please support the publisher and your local booksellers. The Republican Professor is a pro-correctly-contemplating-property-rights podcast. The Republican Professor is produced and hosted by Dr. Lucas J. Mather, Ph.D. Warmly, Lucas J. Mather, Ph.D. The Republican Professor Podcast The Republican Professor Newsletter on Substack https://therepublicanprofessor.substack.com/ https://www.therepublicanprofessor.com/podcast/ https://www.therepublicanprofessor.com/articles/ YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRepublicanProfessor Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/TheRepublicanProfessor Twitter: @RepublicanProf Instagram: @the_republican_professor

Host: Dr. Susan Buttross, Professor of Pediatrics at the University of Mississippi Medical Center, and Abram NanneyTopic: In desperation to protect our loved ones who have illnesses or disorders, it is easy to become emotional and overzealous. We may want to quickly react to reported causations and/or treatments that are touted. Of course, if we could prevent a devastating illness or a developmental disorder in our loved one, we would go for it, right. But sometimes jumping to a treatment or stopping a treatment may not be helpful and could even be dangerous. Today we'll be talking about why understanding “correlation without causation” is so important as we make medical decisions.You can join the conversation by sending an email to: family@mpbonline.org. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

We launched something new — and it's for anyone tired of hearing sloppy arguments pass unchallenged.LSAT Logic Applied is a new short-form podcast hosted by me, Andrew Leahey, the steady (?) voice at the helm of Minimum Competence. Twice a week, we'll take the tools used in LSAT Logical Reasoning — assumptions, flaws, causation, strengthen/weaken — and apply them to the real world: news stories, political talking points, and ad claims.You don't need to be prepping for the LSAT to follow along. The goal is to make better sense of the arguments that flood your feed and shape public opinion — and to see where they break.In the debut episode, included here just this once as an introduction to the show, we take on a recurring claim from Donald Trump: that tariffs made the United States the richest nation in the world. Fact checkers have pushed back on the economic accuracy, but for LSAT purposes, we're more interested in the structure of the argument than its fiscal bottom line.And structurally, there's a lot to talk about. Causation flaws, hidden assumptions, and post hoc reasoning — it's a logical mess with political consequences.Find it wherever you get your finely crafted podcasts. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.minimumcomp.com/subscribe

Tu galères à te fixer des objectifs précis ?T'avances plutôt à l'instinct, sans forcément savoir où tu vas ?Bonne nouvelle : t'es pas seul·e. Et… c'est même documenté.Dans cette MM, je te parle d'un concept développé par la chercheuse Saras Sarasvathy : les deux grandes logiques entrepreneuriales.La causation (partir d'un but clair) vs l'effectuation (faire avec ce qu'on a et voir ce que ça donne).Tu vas voir, c'est pas du développement perso flou, c'est de la vraie recherche.Tu me diras si ça te parle? Tu dirais que ta logique à toi, elle est plus Causale ou Effectuale?(Pour me répondre, envoie-moi un mp sur Linkedin 

In this episode of Longevity by Design, host Dr. Gil Blander sits down with Dr. Ronjon Nag, Adjunct Professor in Genetics at Stanford School of Medicine and President of the R42 Group, for a wide-ranging conversation on how artificial intelligence is reshaping health, medicine, and longevity science.Ronjon makes the case for systems thinking as a necessary framework for understanding aging, arguing that health emerges from complex interactions rather than isolated interventions. He explains how objective data—ranging from blood biomarkers to wearable-derived signals—can be integrated to guide better decisions, cut through conflicting health advice, and personalize interventions. The discussion also explores how AI is becoming a foundational tool, increasingly as ubiquitous as spreadsheets, enabling researchers, clinicians, and individuals to organize, connect, and interpret fragmented health data.The conversation then turns to AI's expanding role in drug discovery, personalized health insights, and ambitious efforts such as vaccines targeting aging biology. Along the way, Ronjon examines both the promise and the limitations of these approaches, emphasizing why interdisciplinary, data-driven methods—and clear thinking about causation, risk, and uncertainty—are essential for extending healthspan and improving long-term outcomes.Guest-at-a-Glance

Understanding the Foundations of Criminal Liability: A Deep DiveThis conversation delves into the foundational elements of criminal liability, focusing on the four key components: actus reus, mens rea, concurrence, and causation. It emphasizes the importance of understanding these elements for law students and legal practitioners, highlighting the principle of legality as a safeguard against arbitrary punishment. The discussion also explores the implications of strict liability offenses and the emerging challenges posed by artificial intelligence in the realm of criminal law.In the realm of criminal law, understanding the foundational elements of criminal liability is crucial for both legal professionals and those interested in the justice system. This blog post delves into the core components that form the bedrock of criminal liability: actus reus, mens rea, concurrence, and causation.Actus Reus: The Physical Act The concept of actus reus, or the "guilty act," is the physical element of a crime. It requires a voluntary action, excluding involuntary movements like reflexes or actions taken while unconscious. The law focuses on punishing actions rather than thoughts, emphasizing the importance of conscious, volitional movement.Mens Rea: The Guilty Mind Mens rea, or the "guilty mind," is the mental state accompanying the actus reus. It determines the level of moral blameworthiness and is categorized into four levels: purpose, knowledge, recklessness, and negligence. Each level reflects the defendant's state of mind and directly impacts the severity of the crime and punishment.Concurrence and Causation Concurrence requires that the criminal intent and the criminal act occur simultaneously. Without this temporal alignment, a crime cannot be established. Causation, on the other hand, involves proving that the defendant's actions directly caused the harm. It is analyzed through factual causation (the "but-for" test) and legal causation (proximate cause), ensuring that the harm was a foreseeable result of the defendant's actions.Strict Liability Offenses An exception to the requirement of mens rea is strict liability offenses, where the prosecution only needs to prove the actus reus. These offenses, often related to public welfare, do not require proof of intent, making them unique in the landscape of criminal law.Understanding these foundational elements is essential for navigating the complexities of criminal law. As technology evolves, the application of these principles continues to be tested, particularly in cases involving autonomous systems. Stay informed and engaged with these critical concepts to better understand the legal landscape.Subscribe now to stay updated on the latest insights in criminal law.TakeawaysMaster the four bedrock elements of criminal liability: actus reus, mens rea, concurrence, and causation.The principle of legality ensures that the government's power to punish is not arbitrary and must be defined by law.Actus reus refers to the physical act of committing a crime, which must be voluntary and can include omissions under certain legal duties.Mens rea is the mental state of the defendant at the time of the crime, which is crucial for establishing guilt.Concurrence requires that the intent and the act occur simultaneously for liability to be established.Causation involves proving both factual and legal causation to link the defendant's actions to the harm caused.Strict liability offenses do not require proof of mens rea, focusing solely on the act itself.The legal landscape is evolving with the introduction of AI, raising questions about liability and culpability.Understanding the nuances of legal duties and exceptions is essential for accurately analyzing criminal liability cases.The distinction between subjective and objective standards ...criminal law, actus reus, mens rea, concurrence, causation, strict liability, principle of legality, legal duty, AI liability, criminal liability

Send us a text*What can we learn about causal inference from the “war” between Bayesians and frequentists?*What can we learn about causal inference from the “war” between Bayesians and frequentists?In the episode, we cover:- What can we learn from the “war” between Bayesians and frequentists?- Why do Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) “just work”?- Do heterogeneous treatment effects exist?- Is RCT generalization a heterogeneity problem?In the episode, we accidentally coined a new term: “feature-level selection bias.”------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Video version available on the Youtube: https://youtu.be/-hRS8eU3TowRecorded in Arizona, US.------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------*About The Guest*Professor Richard Hahn, PhD, is a professor of statistics at Arizona State University (ASU). He develops novel statistical methods for analyzing data arising from the social sciences, including psychology, economics, education, and business. His current focus revolves around causal inference using regression tree models, as well as foundational issues in Bayesian statistics.Connect with Richard:- Richard on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-hahn-a1096050/- Richard's web page: https://methodologymatters.substack.com/about*About The Host*Aleksander (Alex) Molak is an independent machine learning researcher, educator, entrepreneur and a best-selling author in the area of causality (https://amzn.to/3QhsRz4 ).Connect with Alex:- Alex on the Internet: https://bit.ly/aleksander-molak*Links*Repo- https://stochtree.aiPapers- Hahn et al (2020) - "Bayesian Regression Tree Models for Causal Inference" (https://projecteuclid.org/journals/bayesian-analysis/volume-15/issue-3/Bayesian-Regression-Tree-Models-for-Causal-Inference--Regularization-Confounding/10.1214/19-BA1195.full)- Yeager, ..., Dweck et al (2019) - "A national experiment reveals where a growth mindset improves achievement" (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1466-y)- Herren, Hahn, et al (20Support the showCausal Bandits PodcastCausal AI || Causal Machine Learning || Causal Inference & DiscoveryWeb: https://causalbanditspodcast.comConnect on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/aleksandermolak/Join Causal Python Weekly: https://causalpython.io The Causal Book: https://amzn.to/3QhsRz4

Understanding Negligence Causation in Tort Law: A Deep DiveThis conversation provides a comprehensive breakdown of tort law, focusing on negligence analysis, causation, damages, and special doctrines. It emphasizes the importance of understanding the policy choices behind legal rules and the complexities involved in establishing liability. Key topics include factual and proximate causation, the collateral source rule, emotional distress claims, and the challenges of mass tort litigation. The discussion aims to clarify these concepts for law students and practitioners, highlighting the critical elements necessary for successful legal analysis.In the intricate world of tort law, negligence causation stands as a cornerstone concept, pivotal for both law students and practitioners. This blog post unravels the complexities of causation, offering a clear roadmap through its two main components: factual causation and proximate causation.Factual Causation: The 'But For' TestAt the heart of factual causation lies the 'but for' test, a fundamental principle asking whether the injury would have occurred 'but for' the defendant's actions. This test, while straightforward, can sometimes lead to infinite causal chains, necessitating alternative approaches like the Substantial Factor Test (SFT) in cases with concurrent causes.Proximate Causation: The Scope of LiabilityProximate causation, or legal causation, introduces a policy-driven filter to limit liability. It asks whether the harm was a foreseeable result of the defendant's actions, a concept famously illustrated in the Palsgraf v. Long Island Railroad case. This shift from 'proximate cause' to 'scope of liability' sharpens legal analysis, focusing on the specific risks created by the defendant's conduct.Special Doctrines and Modern ChallengesThe blog also explores special doctrines like alternative liability and market share liability, which address evidential uncertainties in complex cases. Additionally, it delves into the controversial collateral source rule, highlighting its impact on damages and the ongoing debate over its fairness and economic implications.The Bigger PictureUltimately, understanding negligence causation in tort law is not just about mastering legal tests and doctrines. It's about recognizing the legal system's broader goal of achieving social fairness, balancing factual findings with equitable outcomes.Subscribe now to stay updated on the latest insights in tort law and beyond.TakeawaysThe goal here is clarity.Causation is the link itself.Proximate cause is the policy-driven filter.The collateral source rule is deeply controversial.Negligent infliction of emotional distress is evolving.Mass torts are a different beast altogether.The harm must match the risk.The single most common mistake on a torts exam is mixing up causation types.Tort law is about achieving social fairness.Understanding policy choices is key to tort law.tort law, negligence, causation, damages, collateral source rule, emotional distress, mass torts, legal responsibility, liability, law education

Understanding Negligence: A Deep Dive into Tort LawThis conversation delves into the complexities of tort law, specifically focusing on negligence. It covers the foundational elements of negligence, including duty, breach, causation, and the standard of care. The discussion emphasizes the importance of understanding the policy implications behind these legal concepts, particularly the balancing act between individual autonomy and societal safety. The conversation also explores the nuances of premises liability and the evolving nature of duty in tort law, providing a comprehensive framework for law students preparing for exams.In the intricate world of tort law, negligence stands as a cornerstone concept that every law student must master. This blog post unravels the complexities of negligence, focusing on its foundational elements and the critical role it plays in legal examinations.The Four Pillars of Negligence: Negligence is traditionally broken down into four key elements: duty, breach, causation, and damage. Understanding these components is crucial for any aspiring lawyer. Duty acts as the gatekeeper, determining whether a legal obligation exists between the parties involved. Breach examines whether the defendant failed to meet the standard of care expected. Causation links the breach to the harm caused, while damage assesses the actual harm suffered by the plaintiff.The Role of Duty in Negligence: Duty is the starting point in any negligence analysis. It involves a legal relationship that imposes an obligation of care. Judges play a pivotal role in determining whether a duty exists, often balancing societal interests against individual freedoms. This element is policy-heavy, as it decides if a case belongs in the tort system.Breach and the Reasonable Person Standard: Breach focuses on whether the defendant's actions fell short of the expected standard of care. The "reasonable person" standard is a legal fiction used to assess conduct objectively. It demands that individuals act with the prudence and caution expected of a good citizen, regardless of personal quirks or limitations.Causation and the Hand Formula: Causation is divided into actual cause and proximate cause. The "but for" test is commonly used to establish actual cause, while proximate cause involves policy considerations to limit liability. The Hand Formula, introduced by Judge Learned Hand, provides an economic framework to assess whether conduct was negligent by weighing the burden of precautions against the probability and severity of harm.Conclusion: Mastering negligence requires a deep understanding of its structure and policy implications. By dissecting each element and applying frameworks like the Hand Formula, law students can develop a sophisticated approach to tackling negligence questions in exams. As the legal landscape evolves, the balance between personal prudence and social efficiency remains a central theme in tort law.Subscribe now to stay updated on the latest insights in legal education and practice.TakeawaysNegligence is the engine of Tort law.Understanding duty is critical for legal analysis.The reasonable person standard is an objective legal fiction.Judges make policy decisions regarding duty.Negligence per se simplifies breach analysis.The Hand formula assesses the reasonableness of conduct.Causation includes both actual and proximate cause.There is no general duty to rescue strangers.Premises liability varies based on the status of the person.Reasonableness in law involves complex social considerations.torts law, negligence, duty, breach, standard of care, causation, premises liability, hand formula, legal analysis, law school

Causation and Workers' Compensation? It's complicated, and it varies by state. The concept is that to qualify for Workers' Comp there must be a direct link between the injury (or illness) and the workplace. But how do you prove what's a direct result of the workplace and what was the result of a prior injury or condition?  Here's where it gets confusing. Every state has its own rules. There are varying degrees of required proof, pre-existing conditions, mental trauma, contributing causes, and it can be a challenge to sift through each jurisdiction's standards.  Hosts Judson and Alan Pierce dissect how pre-existing conditions complicate work-related injury claims. It's not always as clear as it seems, and state-by-state regulations create even more confusion. Add in workplace psychological stresses and it goes even deeper. If you have thoughts on Workers' Comp law or an idea for a topic or guest you'd like to hear, contact us at JPierce@ppnlaw.com or APierce@ppnlaw.com.  Mentioned in This Episode: “AMA Guides® to the Evaluation of Permanent Impairment: An Overview”  “AMA Guides to Disease and Injury Causation,” by J. Mark Melhorn Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Causation and Workers' Compensation? It's complicated, and it varies by state. The concept is that to qualify for Workers' Comp there must be a direct link between the injury (or illness) and the workplace. But how do you prove what's a direct result of the workplace and what was the result of a prior injury or condition?  Here's where it gets confusing. Every state has its own rules. There are varying degrees of required proof, pre-existing conditions, mental trauma, contributing causes, and it can be a challenge to sift through each jurisdiction's standards.  Hosts Judson and Alan Pierce dissect how pre-existing conditions complicate work-related injury claims. It's not always as clear as it seems, and state-by-state regulations create even more confusion. Add in workplace psychological stresses and it goes even deeper. If you have thoughts on Workers' Comp law or an idea for a topic or guest you'd like to hear, contact us at JPierce@ppnlaw.com or APierce@ppnlaw.com.  Mentioned in This Episode: “AMA Guides® to the Evaluation of Permanent Impairment: An Overview”  “AMA Guides to Disease and Injury Causation,” by J. Mark Melhorn Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

There are plenty of rags to riches stories, that while I honor greatly, don't specifically stand out to me. But this one…this one did. Andre Norman wasn't just in prison. And maximum security prison at that. He ran the prison. He was king of the inmates and ran gang activities from within the prison walls. He was granted immunity from most all the rules and regulations by the guards. Then on his way to yet another of 10+ attempted murders, he got a wake up call and realized he was king. King of…nothing. Thus began his journey to educate himself, work out of a 100+ year prison sentence, and become an acclaimed motivational speaker on hope. That is a dramatic life transformation to me. An incredible identity shift. And I wanted to understand the dynamics of his experience. Most of my guests are authors, but I seldom read the books completely. Andre's book, Ambassador Of Hope: Turning Poverty And Prison Into A Purpose Driven Life, I read cover to cover. His childhood story…I just broke my heart with. He went from prison king to Harvard. Literally. But even amongst the success he pursued, he still struggled. I dig into his story and he brought me to a discussion on the salvation he cites of accountability. And our propensity as humans to get involved in a pursuit out of a strong why, but then lose it to the what of what we are doing. And get lost, or as he did, come back to the why. I think you'll find this discussion convicting and sobering, as I did. Find Andre at andrenorman.com Sign up for your $1/month trial period at shopify.com/kevin Go to shipstation.com and use code KEVIN to start your free trial. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Episode 257: How do you earn the next banking customer's loyalty, one moment at a time? Focus on what customers choose, and why. According to John Finley, head of marketing, technology, and innovation at BMO, a bank operating across North America, customer loyalty shifts with context. His team takes signals—what customers say—and wires them back into the very next touch. They then test whether the micro-fix actually changes the next behavior. The goal is to earn the next choice—and the corresponding interaction. To make this happen, BMO runs targeted interventions wherever friction points show up. For example, "Customers who don't know who their banker is are much more likely to be a detractor," explains John. To address this, BMO will reintroduce the customer to their banker and then track whether that specific change moves the next response. It's a practical and simple playbook: close rapport gaps, personalize the next contact, and measure whether advocacy—not just willingness to recommend alone—drives ongoing loyalty. Guest: John Finley, Managing Director, Head of Marketing, Technology, & Innovation, BMO Host: Rob Markey, Partner, Bain & Company Give us feedback: Customer Confidential Podcast Feedback Send us a note: Contact Rob Time-Stamped Topics [00:03:00] Feeding survey input back into the next interaction [00:03:00] Use case on reintroducing the banker to close detractor risk [00:04:00] Causation vs. correlation: designing tests that read the next response [00:05:00] Post-acquisition noise: how integration affects signals [00:06:00] A multi-bank reality of how loyalty shifts according to the situation [00:07:00] Loyalty (the emotional) compared to retention (the behavioral) [00:09:00] Advocacy and "willing to recommend"; why formal referrals fall short [00:10:00] Don't chase more surveys; mine behavioral data to reap value Notable Quotes [05:00] "Customers who don't know who their banker is are much more likely to be a detractor." [06:00] "We're very much in test mode. … We're going to be able to measure how the interaction [customers] had influences the next time they provide us feedback." [08:00] "If somebody's willing to recommend, that's one thing. But if somebody's advocating strongly, it's that next step of loyalty."

Send us a textThe Causal Gap: Truly Responsible AI Needs to Understand the ConsequencesWhy do LLMs systematically drive themselves to extinction, and what does it have to do with evolution, moral reasoning, and causality?In this brand-new episode of Causal Bandits, we meet Zhijing Jin (Max Planck Institute for Intelligent Systems, University of Toronto) to answer these questions and look into the future of automated causal reasoning.In this episode, we discuss:- Zhijing's new work on the "causal scientist"- What's missing in responsible AI- Why ethics matter for agentic systems- Is causality a necessary element of moral reasoning?------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Video version available on Youtube: https://youtu.be/Frb6eTW2ywkRecorded on Aug 18, 2025 in Tübingen, Germany.------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------About The GuestZhiijing Jin is a researcher scientist at Max Planck Institute for Intelligent Systems and an incoming Assistant Professor at the University of Toronto. Her work is focused on causality, natural language, and ethics, in particular in the context of large language models and multi-agent systems. Her work received multiple awards, including NeurIPS best paper award, and has been featured in CHIP Magazine, WIRED, and MIT News. She grew up in Shanghai. Currently she prepares to open her new research lab at the University of Toronto.Support the showCausal Bandits PodcastCausal AI || Causal Machine Learning || Causal Inference & DiscoveryWeb: https://causalbanditspodcast.comConnect on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/aleksandermolak/Join Causal Python Weekly: https://causalpython.io The Causal Book: https://amzn.to/3QhsRz4

$37 billion. That's how much gets wasted annually on marketing budgets because of poor attribution and misunderstanding of what actually drives results. Companies' credit campaigns that didn't work. They kill initiatives that were actually succeeding. They double down on coincidences while ignoring what's actually driving outcomes.   Three executives lost their jobs this month for making the same mistake. They presented data showing success after their initiatives were launched. Boards approved promotions. Then someone asked the one question nobody thought to ask: "Could something else explain this?" The sales spike coincided with a competitor going bankrupt. The satisfaction increase happened when a toxic manager quit. The correlation was real. The causation was fiction. This mistake derailed their careers.   But here's the good news: once you see how this works, you'll never unsee it. And you'll become the person in the room who spots these errors before they cost millions.   But first, you need to understand what makes this mistake so common—and why even smart people fall for it every single day. What is Causal Thinking? At its core, causal thinking is the practice of identifying genuine cause-and-effect relationships rather than settling for surface-level associations. It's asking not just "do these things happen together?" but "does one actually cause the other?"   This skill means you look beyond patterns and correlations to understand what's actually producing the outcomes you're seeing. When you think causally, you can spot the difference between coincidence, correlation, and true causation—a distinction that separates effective decision-makers from those who waste millions on solutions that were never going to work. Loss of Causal Thinking Skills Across every domain of professional life, this confusion costs fortunes and derails careers.   A SaaS company sees customer churn decrease after implementing new onboarding emails—and immediately scales it company-wide. What they missed: they launched the emails the same week their biggest competitor raised prices by 40%. The competitor's pricing reduced churn. But they'll never know, because they never asked the question. Six months later, when they face real churn issues, they keep doubling down on emails that never actually worked.   This happens outside of work too. You start taking a new vitamin, and two weeks later your energy improves. But you started taking it in early March—right when days got longer and you began going outside more. Was it the vitamin or the sunlight and exercise? Most people credit the vitamin without asking the question.   But here's the good news: once you understand how to think causally, these mistakes become obvious. And one of these five strategies can be used in your very next meeting—literally 30 seconds from now. Let me show you how. How To Master Causal Thinking Mastering causal thinking isn't about becoming a statistician or learning complex formulas. It's about developing five practical strategies that work together to reveal what's really driving results. These build on each other—starting with basic tests you can apply right now, and progressing to a complete system you can use for any decision. Strategy 1: The Three Tests of True Causation Think of these as your checklist for evaluating any causal claim.   The Three Tests:   Test #1 - Timing: Confirm the supposed cause actually happened before the effect. If traffic spiked Monday but you launched the campaign Tuesday, that campaign didn't cause it. The cause must always come before the effect.   Test #2 - Consistent Movement: When the supposed cause is present, does the effect reliably occur? When the cause is absent, does the effect disappear? Document instances where they occur together. Then examine situations where the cause is absent. If the effect happens just as often without the cause, you're looking at correlation, not causation.   Test #3 - Rule Out Alternatives: Think carefully about what else could explain what you're seeing. Actively try to disprove your idea rather than only looking for supporting evidence. If you can't eliminate other explanations, you don't have causation. Strategy 2: Ask "Could Something Else Explain This?" Here's a technique you can implement in the next 30 seconds that will immediately improve your causal thinking: whenever someone presents a causal claim, ask out loud: "Could something else explain this?"   This single question is remarkably powerful. It forces the speaker to consider hidden factors they ignored. It reveals whether they've actually done causal analysis or just noticed a correlation and declared victory. It shifts the conversation from assumption to examination.   Try it in your next meeting when someone says "We did X and Y improved." Watch how often they haven't considered alternatives. Watch how often their confident causal claim becomes less certain when forced to address this simple question.   Most people present correlations as causations without even realizing it. Your question makes that leap visible. Suddenly they have to justify it with evidence or back down. It's not confrontational—it's curious. And curiosity is the foundation of good causal thinking.   Use it today. Use it every time someone attributes an outcome to a cause without ruling out alternatives.   That question leads us naturally to our next strategy—learning to identify what those "something elses" actually are. Strategy 3: Hunt for Hidden Causes A confounding variable is a third factor that influences both your suspected cause and your observed effect. It creates the illusion of a direct relationship where none exists.   Here's a simple example: ice cream sales and drowning deaths both increase during summer months. Does ice cream cause drowning? Obviously not. The confounding variable is warm weather, which causes both more ice cream purchases and more swimming.   Now here's the business version: A retail company sees both customer satisfaction and sales increase after renovating their stores. Does the renovation cause higher satisfaction? Maybe—but both also increased because they renovated during the holiday shopping season when people are generally happier and spending more anyway. Same logical structure. Same expensive mistake if they conclude renovations always boost satisfaction.   Map the Relationship: When you observe a correlation, write down your suspected cause and your observed effect. This visualization helps you spot gaps in your logic immediately.   Ask "What Else Changed?": Think carefully about what other factors were present or changed during the same period. Make a written list so your brain doesn't skip over these hidden causes.   Search for Common Causes: Identify factors that could influence both variables at the same time. For instance, if both employee satisfaction and productivity increased, could several toxic managers have left the company?   Consider Time-Based and Environmental Factors: Examine seasons, business cycles, economic trends, reorganizations, leadership changes, and industry shifts that could affect multiple outcomes at once.   Test by Controlling Variables: If possible, create scenarios where you can control or account for potential hidden causes. Try analyzing subgroups where the hidden cause is absent, or run controlled A/B tests.   Once you can spot these hidden causes, you're ready to understand why your brain makes these mistakes in the first place. And this next one? It's probably happening in your head right now without you realizing it. Strategy 4: Outsmart Your Brain's Shortcuts Your brain is wired to see causal connections everywhere, even where none exist. This isn't a design flaw—it's a survival mechanism that kept your ancestors alive. But in the modern business world, this pattern-seeking instinct can mislead you.   Your brain wants simple causal stories. Reality is usually more complex. Once you know what to watch for, you can catch yourself before making these errors.   Catch Your Instant Explanations: When you observe a pattern, pause before declaring causation. Ask yourself: "Am I seeing causation because it's really there, or because my brain desperately needs an explanation?"   Fight Confirmation Bias: Actively search for information that challenges your causal idea, not just data that supports it. If you can't find contradicting evidence, you haven't looked hard enough.   Here's how this plays out: A manager believes remote work hurts productivity. She notices every time someone's late to a Zoom call. But she doesn't notice the three on-time people. She remembers the one missed deadline but forgets the five delivered early. Her brain is filtering reality to confirm what she already believes.   Question Your Compelling Stories: Be wary of explanations that sound too neat. If your causal explanation reads like a perfect success story, double-check it.   Don't See Patterns in Randomness: Three successful quarters in a row doesn't mean you've discovered a winning formula. It might just be a lucky streak. Always ask "Could this pattern occur by chance?"   Watch the 'After Therefore Because' Trap: Every time you catch yourself thinking "we did X and then Y happened," force yourself to consider alternative explanations. Ask yourself "What would I need to see to know this isn't causal?"   Now that you understand how your brain works, let's put this all together into a practical system you can use every time you need to make a high-stakes decision. Strategy 5: The Five-Question Causation Check Mastering causal thinking requires more than understanding principles—it demands a clear approach you can apply when the stakes are high and the pressure is on.   The Five-Question Causation Check:   Define the Relationship Clearly: Write out the specific causal claim you're evaluating with precision. "Social media advertising increases qualified leads by X%" is better than "marketing works."   Verify the Basics: Does the cause come before the effect in time? Are they consistently related across different contexts? Are there possible alternative explanations?   Look for or Create Tests: Find situations where the supposed cause varies while other factors stay constant. The goal is isolation—can you isolate the variable you're testing from everything else that's changing?   Check if More Causes More: Does more of the cause lead to more of the effect? If doubling your ad spend doubles your conversions, that's stronger evidence than if the relationship is erratic.   Test Reversibility: If you remove the cause, does the effect disappear? If you reinstate the cause, does the effect return? This is why pilot programs and controlled rollbacks are so valuable. Put It Into Practice You now have the complete framework for causal thinking—five strategies that work together to reveal what's really causing what.   But here's what separates people who learn this from people who actually use it—one simple practice you can do this week that makes this framework automatic. Practice Exercise: The Causation Audit A practical and effective way to internalize these strategies is through practice with real-world scenarios from your actual work.   Here's how to conduct your own causal analysis:   Identify a Correlation from Your Work: Choose a recent pattern or causal claim that affects budgets or strategy.   State Your Causal Hypothesis: Write out your causal claim explicitly. Be specific about the supposed cause and the supposed effect.   Brainstorm Alternative Explanations: List at least five alternatives. Force yourself beyond the obvious first three.   Apply Your Three Tests: Evaluate whether your idea meets all three tests for causation. Did the cause come first? Do they consistently move together? Have you actually ruled out alternatives?   Design a Simple Test: If possible, design a test to isolate the variable you're testing. For example, have some account managers follow one approach while others don't, with otherwise similar conditions.   Share Your Analysis: Explain your reasoning to a colleague or manager. Teaching forces clarity and demonstrates analytical rigor.   With practice, you'll become skilled at spotting false causation and identifying true cause-and-effect relationships. This skill compounds over time, making you more valuable with every analysis you conduct.   So what does this actually get you? Let me paint the picture of what changes when you master this skill. The Rewards The rewards of mastering causal thinking are well worth the effort and will compound throughout your career.   You become immune to the most expensive mistakes in business—the ones where you solve the wrong problem perfectly. When everyone else is celebrating a correlation as success, you'll be asking the questions that reveal what's really driving outcomes. Imagine being in a meeting where leadership is about to allocate $2 million to scale an initiative, and you're the one who asks the question that reveals a competitor's bankruptcy actually caused the results. That's career-defining value.   Your strategic recommendations carry weight because they're based on actual causation rather than hopeful patterns. Leaders who can distinguish between correlation and causation make decisions that actually work. When your predictions prove accurate while others' fail, your credibility compounds—you become the person everyone turns to when stakes are high.   You develop the intellectual humility that marks exceptional leaders. Causal thinking teaches you to question your initial judgments, seek alternative explanations, and change your mind when evidence demands it. These qualities don't just make you a better thinker—they make you someone others trust with important decisions.   So take these strategies and practice them. Apply them in your daily work. Question causal claims, hunt for hidden causes, check your biases, and use the systematic process. This makes you a more effective decision-maker, a more credible advisor, and someone who spots opportunities and avoids disasters that others miss entirely.   And you'll become the person in the room everyone listens to when the stakes are high. Your Thinking 101 Journey In Episode 1, "Why Thinking Skills Matter Now More Than Ever," we exposed the crisis: your thinking ability is collapsing, AI dependency is creating cognitive debt, and those who can't think independently will be left behind.   In Episode 2, "How To Improve Your Logical Reasoning Skills," you learned to distinguish deductive certainty from inductive probability, calibrate your confidence to match your evidence, and stop treating patterns as proven facts.   Today, you learned how to distinguish true causation from mere correlation—saving yourself from expensive mistakes where you solve the wrong problem perfectly.   Up next—Episode 4: "Analogical Thinking—The Power of Comparison." Your brain doesn't learn through pure logic—it learns by comparison. Every breakthrough idea came from someone who made an unexpected connection. You'll learn how to generate insights through analogy, recognize when comparisons break down, and spot when others use false analogies to manipulate you.   Hit that subscribe button so you don't miss future episodes. Also—hit the like and notification bell. It helps with the algorithm so others see our content. Why not share this video with a colleague who you think would benefit from it?   Because right now, while you've been watching this, someone just approved a million-dollar budget based on a correlation they mistook for causation. The only question is: will you be the one who catches it?       SOURCES CITED IN THIS EPISODE Pathmetrics – Marketing Attribution Waste 5 Common Marketing Attribution Mistakes to Avoid. (2025). Pathmetrics. (Citing Proxima research on global marketing waste) https://www.pathmetrics.io/attribution/5-common-marketing-attribution-mistakes-to-avoid/   Harvard Business Review – Correlation vs Causation in Leadership Luca, M. (2021). Leaders: Stop Confusing Correlation with Causation. Harvard Business Review. https://hbr.org/2021/11/leaders-stop-confusing-correlation-with-causation   The CEO Project – Correlation vs Causation in Business Correlation vs Causation in Business. (2024). The CEO Project. https://theceoproject.com/correlation-vs-causation-in-business/   Nature Communications – Causality in Digital Medicine Glocker, B., Musolesi, M., Richens, J., & Uhler, C. (2021). Causality in digital medicine. Nature Communications, 12, 4993. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-25743-9   Stanford Social Innovation Review – The Case for Causal AI Sgaier, S. K., Huang, V., & Charles, G. (2020). The Case for Causal AI. Stanford Social Innovation Review. https://ssir.org/articles/entry/the_case_for_causal_ai       ADDITIONAL READING On Causation and Decision-Making Pearl, J., & Mackenzie, D. (2018). The Book of Why: The New Science of Cause and Effect. Basic Books.   On Thinking Clearly Kahneman, D. (2011). Thinking, Fast and Slow. Farrar, Straus and Giroux.   On Statistical Reasoning Angrist, J. D., & Pischke, J. S. (2009). Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist's Companion. Princeton University Press.         Note: All sources cited in this episode have been accessed and verified as of October 2025.  

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Welcome back to the Law School Toolbox podcast! In today's episode, we're focusing on one of the most highly-tested topics on law school exams: Negligence. In particular, we're talking about the different ways in which factual causation can be demonstrated. In this episode we discuss: Review of the elements of negligence What is factual causation and the five tests that are used to prove it Analyzing two hypos from previous California bar exams Resources: "Listen and Learn" series (https://lawschooltoolbox.com/law-school-toolbox-podcast-substantive-law-topics/#listen-learn) California Bar Examination – Essay Questions and Selected Answers, February 2019 (https://makethisyourlasttime.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/Feb-2019-Essays.pdf) California Bar Examination – Essay Questions and Selected Answers, July 2017 (https://makethisyourlasttime.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/July-2017-Essays.pdf) Summers v. Tice (https://casetext.com/case/summers-v-tice) Sindell v. Abbott Laboratories (https://wiki.harvard.edu/confluence/display/GNME/Sindell+v.+Abbott+Laboratories) Podcast Episode 382: Listen and Learn – Negligence: Proximate Cause (https://lawschooltoolbox.com/podcast-episode-382-listen-and-learn-negligence-proximate-cause/) Download the Transcript  (https://lawschooltoolbox.com/episode-523-listen-and-learn-negligence-factual-causation/) If you enjoy the podcast, we'd love a nice review and/or rating on Apple Podcasts (https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/law-school-toolbox-podcast/id1027603976) or your favorite listening app. And feel free to reach out to us directly. You can always reach us via the contact form on the Law School Toolbox website (http://lawschooltoolbox.com/contact). If you're concerned about the bar exam, check out our sister site, the Bar Exam Toolbox (http://barexamtoolbox.com/). You can also sign up for our weekly podcast newsletter (https://lawschooltoolbox.com/get-law-school-podcast-updates/) to make sure you never miss an episode! Thanks for listening! Alison & Lee

Join my FREE 3-Day Water Fast Challenge - October 15th. It's the exact protocol I use with pro athletes and Fortune 500 CEOs to flush inflammation and kickstart autophagy. Sign up here! http://bit.ly/4nTILPt Could the answer to your chronic health struggles be hiding in plain sight inside your mouth? Live from the Health Optimisation Summit stage in London, Dr. Dominik Nischwitz and I answered questions on the connections between oral health and systemic diseases, how root canals, wisdom tooth extractions, and metal fillings create hidden infection sites that burden your immune system for decades. This is your sign to visit a biological dentist near you! Join the Ultimate Human VIP community for Gary Brecka's proven wellness protocols!: https://bit.ly/4ai0Xwg Get Dr. Dominik Nischwitz's book, “It's All In Your Mouth“ here: http://bit.ly/4nFJumU Connect with Dr. Dominik Nischwitz: Website: http://bit.ly/4nGvGZs YouTube: http://bit.ly/47UGqin Instagram: http://bit.ly/4nHgMSM TikTok: http://bit.ly/42Hhx67 Facebook: http://bit.ly/4pJCbg4 LinkedIn: http://bit.ly/42adEqp Thank you to our partners H2TABS: “ULTIMATE10” FOR 10% OFF: https://bit.ly/4hMNdgg BODYHEALTH: “ULTIMATE20” FOR 20% OFF: http://bit.ly/4e5IjsV BAJA GOLD: "ULTIMATE10" FOR 10% OFF: https://bit.ly/3WSBqUa EIGHT SLEEP: SAVE $350 ON THE POD 4 ULTRA WITH CODE “GARY”: https://bit.ly/3WkLd6E COLD LIFE: THE ULTIMATE HUMAN PLUNGE: https://bit.ly/4eULUKp WHOOP: JOIN AND GET 1 FREE MONTH!: https://bit.ly/3VQ0nzW MASA CHIPS: 20% OFF FIRST ORDER: https://bit.ly/40LVY4y VANDY: “ULTIMATE20” FOR 20% OFF: https://bit.ly/49Qr7WE AION: “ULTIMATE10” FOR 10% OFF: https://bit.ly/4h6KHAD A-GAME: “ULTIMATE15” FOR 15% OFF: http://bit.ly/4kek1ij PEPTUAL: “TUH10” FOR 10% OFF: https://bit.ly/4mKxgcn CARAWAY: “ULTIMATE” FOR 10% OFF: https://bit.ly/3Q1VmkC HEALF: 10% OFF YOUR ORDER: https://bit.ly/41HJg6S BIOPTIMIZERS: “ULTIMATE” FOR 15% OFF: https://bit.ly/4inFfd7 RHO NUTRITION: “ULTIMATE15” FOR 15% OFF: https://bit.ly/44fFza0 GOPUFF: GET YOUR FAVORITE SNACK!: https://bit.ly/4obIFDC GENETIC TEST: ⁠https://bit.ly/3Yg1Uk9 Watch  the “Ultimate Human Podcast” every Tuesday & Thursday at 9AM EST: YouTube: https://bit.ly/3RPQYX8 Podcasts: https://bit.ly/3RQftU0 Connect with Gary Brecka Instagram: https://bit.ly/3RPpnFs TikTok: https://bit.ly/4coJ8fo X: https://bit.ly/3Opc8tf Facebook: https://bit.ly/464VA1H LinkedIn: https://bit.ly/4hH7Ri2 Website: https://bit.ly/4eLDbdU Merch: https://bit.ly/4aBpOM1 Newsletter: https://bit.ly/47ejrws Ask Gary: https://bit.ly/3PEAJuG Timestamps: 00:00 Intro of Show 01:33 Identifying Other Health Issues through Biologic Dentistry  03:03 Interconnection of Cavitations and Cancer 05:35 Changing the Healthcare System 09:47 Importance of Biologic Dentistry 11:45 Treatment for Impacted Wisdom Teeth 14:29 Oral Cavitation, Immunofatigue, and Autoimmune Diseases 17:20 Treatment for Tongue-tie  19:29 Hydroxyapatite vs. Flouride 23:13 Causation and Reversal of Scoliosis  26:06 Chronic Inflammations Possibly Caused by Cavitations 29:29 Educating Parents about Proper Nutrition 32:59 Detoxification after Heavy Metals Removal 34:54 Risks for Undergoing Root Canal Procedures The Ultimate Human with Gary Brecka Podcast is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute the practice of medicine, nursing or other professional health care services, including the giving of medical advice, and no doctor/patient relationship is formed. The use of information on this podcast or materials linked from this podcast is at the user's own risk. The Content of this podcast is not intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis, or treatment. Users should not disregard or delay in obtaining medical advice for any medical condition they may have and should seek the assistance of their health care professionals for any such conditions. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week the Trump administration announced that Tylenol and its main ingredient acetaminophen could have links to autism if taken when women are pregnant. Dr. Nicole Saphier is a FOX News Medical Contributor and associate professor at Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, she joined Annie to discuss the announcement and what expecting mothers can take away from it.

What is in the This Week in Science Podcast? This Week: Government Climate Propaganda, Health Gutted, SeeMe, Less Pain With ADRIANA, It's Not You, It's Us, Justin Trashes a Study, Correlation? Causation on the Toilet?, Electrical Immunity?, Spleendid Healing, That Succulent Glow, and Much More Science Unplugged! Become a Patron! Check out the full unedited […] The post 3 September, 2025 – Episode 1028 – Science Unplugged appeared first on This Week in Science - The Kickass Science Podcast.