Podcasts about Causality

We're living through one of the most dangerous eras in history — not because of war or politics alone, but because of the extraordinary convergence of economic, financial, and geopolitical risks. In this episode, we break down: How record global debt, AI-driven speculation, and geopolitical instability are colliding. Why the current market optimism masks systemic fragility. What investors can learn from past cycles — from 1929 to 2008 — to prepare for the next regime shift. The role of central banks, fiscal excess, and policy distortions that have created a fragile illusion of stability. 0:18 - EOM Approaches, Rare Earth, & the China Deal 4:28 - Markets Set New Highs 8:57 - Lance's Grandkid Solution 10:28 - The Dumbest Stock Market in History 12:53 - Why Are Markets trading at 200% Above GDP? 16:26 - Unforeseen Consequences of Passive Investing 21:54 - More ETF's than Mutual Funds 26:47 - Passive Indexing Underwrites the Markets 31:13 - The Causality of Liquidity 34:21 - Bubbles Don't Form, the Evolve 37:25 - Be Aware of the Risks You're Taking 45:14 - Cash Levels and Margin Debt

Dr. Emily Adlam is a philosopher of quantum physics who has just finished a book about the strangest feature of fundamental physics - the perennial confusion over what it means to make a measurement. We all know that quantum physics tells us that there's this strange thing, called wavefunction collapse, which transitions a system from being in a quantum state into being in a classical state. But what does it mean to make a measurement? And what does it mean to turn a system from a quantum one into a classical one? It turns out that no one really knows, and we spend this conversation trying to figure out how that could be possible, after more than a century of theorizing about the foundations of reality. PATREON https://www.patreon.com/c/demystifysciPARADIGM DRIFThttps://demystifysci.com/paradigm-drift-showHOMEBREW MUSIC - Check out our new album!Hard Copies (Vinyl): FREE SHIPPING https://demystifysci-shop.fourthwall.com/products/vinyl-lp-secretary-of-nature-everything-is-so-good-hereStreaming:https://secretaryofnature.bandcamp.com/album/everything-is-so-good-here00:00 Go! 00:04:30 Understanding the Measurement Problem 00:08:00 The Nature of Quantum Formalisms 00:11:30 Critiques of Many-Worlds Interpretation 00:17:00 The Many-Worlds Perspective and Its Popularity 00:20:41 Discussion on the Many Worlds Interpretation of Quantum Mechanics 00:21:39 Criticism of the Many Worlds Interpretation 00:23:41 Observer Dependent Interpretations in Quantum Mechanics 00:28:14 Implications of Quantum Interpretations 00:31:45 Primitive Ontology Interpretations 00:36:07 Challenges of Quantum Field Theory 00:41:27 Discussion on Quantum Measurement 00:44:12 Transactional Interpretation of Quantum Mechanics 00:48:58 Observational Limits in Quantum Physics 00:56:09 Challenges of Understanding Quantum Reality 01:02:20 Philosophical Implications of Quantum Mechanics 01:03:16 Discussion on Causality and Probability 01:09:05 Probabilistic Features of Nature 01:12:54 Mathematical vs. Visual Intuition in Quantum Mechanics 01:17:49 Relationship Between Quantum Phenomena and Macroscopic Effects 01:19:20 Proposed Revision to Quantum Epistemology 01:25:03 Exploration of Quantum Concepts 01:27:34 The Nature of Reality in Quantum Mechanics 01:30:12 Experimental vs. Theoretical Physics 01:34:22 Challenges in Testing Quantum Mechanics 01:36:19 Evolution of Epistemology in Quantum Physics 01:40:42 Implications for Broader Inquiry 01:44:37 Fundamental Questions on Mass and Gravity 01:47:03 The Interface of Relativity and Quantum Mechanics 01:48:27 Emergence and Relational Descriptions in Physics 01:49:55 Theoretical Physics Versus Experimental Collaboration 01:50:52 Resilience in Quantum Physics Understanding#quantumphysics, #philosophy, #metaphysics, #quantummechanics, #causality, #epistemology, #relativity, #cosmos, #consciousness, #paradigmshift , #rationality, #intellectual #philosophypodcast , #longformpodcastMERCH: Rock some DemystifySci gear : https://demystifysci-shop.fourthwall.com/AMAZON: Do your shopping through this link: https://amzn.to/3YyoT98DONATE: https://bit.ly/3wkPqaDSUBSTACK: https://substack.com/@UCqV4_7i9h1_V7hY48eZZSLw@demystifysci RSS: https://anchor.fm/s/2be66934/podcast/rssMAILING LIST: https://bit.ly/3v3kz2S SOCIAL: - Discord: https://discord.gg/MJzKT8CQub- Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/groups/DemystifySci- Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/DemystifySci/- Twitter: https://twitter.com/DemystifySciMUSIC: -Shilo Delay: https://g.co/kgs/oty671

บทความ "Causality and Factor Investing: A Primer" โดย Marcos López de Prado และ Vincent Zoonekynd นำเสนอภาพรวมเกี่ยวกับการลงทุนแบบแฟกเตอร์ โดยเน้นย้ำถึง ปัญหาพื้นฐาน ในการใช้วิธีการทางเศรษฐมิติแบบดั้งเดิมที่ละเลยหลักการความเป็นเหตุเป็นผล (causality) ข้อบกพร่องทางระเบียบวิธีนี้ทำให้เกิด "ภาพลวงตาของแฟกเตอร์" (factor mirage) ซึ่งเป็นผลลัพธ์ที่ดูดีในการทดสอบย้อนหลังแต่ล้มเหลวในการใช้งานจริงเนื่องจากการระบุความสัมพันธ์ที่ผิดพลาด ผู้เขียนได้อธิบายถึง อคติที่เกิดจากตัวแปรก่อกวน (confounder bias) และ อคติที่เกิดจากตัวแปรคอลไลเดอร์ (collider bias) ว่าเป็นสาเหตุหลักที่ทำให้การประมาณค่าสัมประสิทธิ์ผิดเพี้ยนและนำไปสู่การจัดสรรเงินทุนที่ไม่มีประสิทธิภาพ นอกจากนี้ ยังเสนอ แนวทางปฏิบัติที่ดีที่สุด ในรูปแบบรายการตรวจสอบสำหรับมืออาชีพและเจ้าของสินทรัพย์ เพื่อนำการให้เหตุผลเชิงสาเหตุมาใช้ในการสร้างแบบจำลองการลงทุนอย่างเคร่งครัด

Luke's HAARP Time Warp: Part 12 The lover's spat. Based on a post by somethin fishy, in 15 parts. Listen to the Podcast at Explicit Novels. Chapter 56. Luke was anxious to get home. Everyone just assumed that he just wanted to get home to fuck his hot girlfriend and even hotter wife and he did have to admit that was part of the reason. Okay a big part. The main reason though was that he knew that they were scheduled for invasion soon and from the spies that Marion had sent into Norway, he knew that the historical invasion was still on track. Luke wanted to get back so that they could get ready for it. Before he could leave though, he had to deal with some more rebellious nobles. This time they had acquired some firearms on the black market. Fortunately for Luke's army; the nobles didn't know how to use the guns they had gotten and they also didn't have any way to get more ammunition for them. Some of them had managed to get the secret to making gun powder, but because Luke's guns required a primer to fire them; the nobles still couldn't use them beyond the limited use of the very small number of primers that they had managed to steal. This was one of the reasons that Luke had made these firearms, in the first place, and not simpler muzzleloaders. Luke won the battle easily but it had cost him almost one hundred dead and almost twice that wounded. The only good thing that came out of the battle was that the last of the rebellious nobles had been killed. After the battle, Luke started his march back to York. Since it was the middle of summer, he kept the march at a slower pace and made sure that his army had plenty of water and rest. The last thing he wanted to do was to cause his soldiers to suffer from heat exhaustion, especially when there was no pressing reason that they needed to hurry to York. So, Luke and the army took their time going back. They stopped to help build difficult sections of road and to occasionally help farmers with their chores. In the end, a march that could have been done in a couple of days, ended up taking two weeks. The plus side was that support for Marion had been shored up in the region and Luke knew that in the near future, that would prove vital. He knew that support for Marion was still very shaky and he suspected that most of her support was because people feared him. One day he hoped that people would support her for her but he feared that this was still a long way off. The sight when they got back to York left most of them speechless, for the city had changed drastically in the month and a half that they had been gone. All the streets were now paved, with concrete, with trees and flowers planted along the sides. New streets had been laid out and were in the process of having either their sewers put in or were being paved. New buildings made of brick and concrete were going up everywhere it seemed. The biggest difference though was the sheer number of people present in the city. They were everywhere and they all seemed to be doing some job. The biggest surprise they got though was from Marion herself; for she ordered that the army march right through the center of town and to assemble in the castle courtyard. Luke paused the army outside of York for an hour or so, so that the soldiers had a chance to clean up a bit and look their best. He made sure that he also got cleaned up as well. The route to the castle was packed with civilians who had all turned out to cheer for their army. Finally, it was time; and Luke had the band led the way, into the city, but the crowd was so loud that barely anyone could even hear the band. Luke estimated that every one of his soldiers probably gained five pounds from all the flowers they got. On the way in Luke had even observed a Jewish synagogue being built with the help of some of the Christian pastors of the city. Although Luke didn't really like religion all that much, he did approve of everyone being allowed to be open with their faith and practice it in peace. When the army got to the castle gates, they swung open to reveal Marion and Gabriel standing there, in uniform, to personally welcome the soldiers back home. Anyone that had any doubts as to Marion's ability to be a great leader, had them put to rest that day; for Marion proved that not only was she an excellent administrator but also that she was extremely popular with not only her troops but also the population as a whole. By now everyone had accepted her and Gabriel as a couple when the general wasn't in town. When he was in town, every straight leaning guy between puberty and dead was jealous of him because he had two of the most beautiful and intelligent women to share his bed with every night. Since Luke had been about halfway back in the parade, it took him a while before Marion got to him. When she did, everyone watching expected that she would jump into his arms. Instead, Luke snapped to attention and gave one of the crispest salutes that anyone had ever seen. “General MacDougall and army returning to York as ordered, ma'am.” Marion returned his salute, “On behalf of the people of York I am pleased to welcome you and your troops back to York. You, your troops, and their families are all invited to a banquet this evening. The doors to the banquet hall will open at eighteen-thirty hours and will remain open until all the food and drink are gone.” Everyone in the army was stunned from Luke on down. There had been no news about a banquet. In addition, everyone was stunned by this display for they were sure that Luke would be greeted by his wife; instead, he was greeted by Marion of York, his commander. Luke was actually glad that Marion had done this for this would help reinforce her position as the military's commander-in-chief. Personally, though he was pissed about the banquet, for he wanted to do nothing more that night than rock his beautiful wife's world all night long. For tomorrow he had paperwork to do. Luke turned to the troops once Marion had finished. “Due to the banquet everyone has a forty-eight-hour leave starting at seventeen hundred hours this afternoon. Attention! Dismissed!” The troops started making their way to the barracks so that they could get their gear stored away and they could be ready for leave. Luke still had hours of work ahead of him though. Reports had to be filed, casualty list had to be updated, supplies had to be inventoried and new supplies had to be requisitioned. All this Luke had to get done before he could go on leave. So as the troops headed toward their barracks; he headed for his office for hours of paperwork. ‘Yippy, and now I have that damn banquet to go to tonight.' thought Luke as he walked toward his office. When he tried to unlock his office door, his key wouldn't work. “What the fuck?” Luke said to himself. He was now starting to get really pissed off and was actually wishing that he was still in the field. He would have used his old-fashioned door opener but when he had designed the door, he made it so that it was virtually impossible to force the door open without a tank or explosives. Plan C was to pick the lock but his tools were in his chambers. “Well fuck me.” Luke grumbled as he headed to his chamber to get his tools for, he really wanted to get the paperwork done so that he could actually, hopefully, enjoy a couple days off. Luke was in for another surprise when he got back into his chamber for, he found that his dress uniform was laid out with a note. “Why can't I just get my fucking work done?” growled Luke as he picked up the note: “Luke, make sure to wear your dress uniform this evening. I changed the lock on your office door so that you can't lock yourself in your office and I have hidden your tools so that you can't pick the lock. Gabriel will come by to get you at eighteen hundred so make sure that you are ready. I promise you that it will be worth it. Your loving wife, Marion” “Fuck! Fuck! Fuck!” Luke screamed as he sent his fist through a nearby door. Now because of Marion he would have to spend a good chunk of his days off catching up on paperwork. He hated when people did this to him for, he was one of those people who hated to procrastinate. Luke looked out one of their windows at the brand-new clock tower outside. It said that it was fifteen thirty. ‘Fuck, how the hell am I going to kill two and a half hours?' he thought. ‘Well, I guess I can try out the shower that Marion has been writing about so much'. Luke stripped down and went into their bathroom. He turned on the water and was surprised at just how well it worked. The shower helped him unwind a bit, but he was still aggravated enough that little Luke didn't rise at all which was odd for bath time. He turned the water off, dried off, and collapsed in bed. It had been well over a month since he had been in a comfortable bed so he passed out really quickly despite being pissed. Chapter 57. After Marion had given her troops the news about the banquet, she and Gabriel retreated back into the castle. “Did you hide Luke's tools?” asked Marion. “Yep, I highly doubt that he will find them for they are in his office and you have the only key around your neck.” “Okay just make sure to get him this evening for I willing to bet that he lays down to take a nap and I want to make sure that he sees me tonight.” “Oh dearie, you worry too much!” Exclaimed Gabriel with a giggle. The ladies were headed to the kitchen to check on this evening's meal. There was a large number of things that they still needed to take care of before the banquet, but with all the help that they had, they were confident that everything would be ready. Dinner would be a choice of pork, chicken, or beef that had been prepared several different ways. Sides would be vegetables and drinks would be ale, wine, or whiskey. After checking on the food, which was coming along nicely; they went to work on all their other chores that had to be done before they could go and start getting ready. It was about five thirty when they headed off to Pollyanna's chambers to get ready. They had left their clothes there so that Marion could surprise Luke, plus it was more fun to get ready with good friends. Granted they didn't have that much to do: just get a quick shower, put on some light make-up, get dressed, then fix up their hair. When they got there, Pollyanna was already getting ready. She had now returned to her former vigorous self after getting beaten and giving birth to twins. When Marion and Gabriel walked in, Pollyanna was naked and Matt was napping for the campaign had worn him out too. The ladies stayed as quiet as they could so that they wouldn't wake Matt up. Marion had almost forgot just how beautiful Pollyanna was with her warm brown eyes and almost black hair. Her skin was white as snow which really made her pubic hair stand out for it was as black as the hair on her head. She did keep it trimmed for if she didn't it would turn into something of a jungle. Her tits were in the D cup neighborhood and her nipples were still swollen and darker brown than usual. Gabriel and Marion both took quick showers so that they would be clean for this evening. After their showers, they slipped on their dresses. All three had been working on their dresses for a couple of weeks in secret. They had used pictures so Luke's sister in formal wear as inspiration. Marion had a long blue dress that was a halter top and had a slit on both sides that ran up to her mid-thigh. Gabriel's was about the same but hers was bright red. Pollyanna's was strapless and black, since she had the biggest pair, she was able to pull off the strapless look while Gabriel and Marion went backless because they had smaller tits. This is why they all hid their dresses from Matt and Luke. They wanted their men to drool over them and to remind all the other men of what they couldn't have. Alice wasn't present because she had patients that she refused to leave. Marion, Gabriel, and Pollyanna had all tried to convince Alice that she needed to get away for an evening with Marion even having a beautiful green dress made for her, but Alice wouldn't budge. She was proving to be an extremely devoted doctor and would gladly give up her personal life to help her patients. Another reason that she didn't want to go was that neither her or her fiancé were much of the party animal and Alice much preferred to send a quiet evening with him to one of people eating and getting drunk. Her fiancé however did ask her to wear the dress for him. Alice told him: “I will gladly wear it for our wedding and after that for parties, but not before.” That was her last word on the subject and her fiancé knew better then try and push her on it. As promised, Gabriel went to wake Luke up at six and was surprised to find him already up. He was wearing an old pair of pants and standing in the window. “Good evening Colonel.” Luke said in an extremely dry voice. “Seriously, Luke. Why so formal?” “Why not? I can't get any fucking work done.” Now it was Gabriel's turn to get pissed “Now listen here, Luke. And you listen well. Marion put a lot of effort into this and you Are going to go! End of discussion! Now get your dress uniform on!” Luke just stood there and didn't move a single muscle. “Luke!” Gabriel screamed “What The Fuck Is Wrong With You?” “Well let's see here.” Luke responded calmly “All I wanted to do when I got back was to get my paperwork done so that I could actually enjoy a couple of days off. Now thanks to you and Marion, I will have to spend a good chunk of tomorrow catching up on paperwork. I would have shot the lock out except I didn't want the hassle of putting a new one in. Now please leave me alone.” “Fuck no! Get dressed or it will be a long time before you get laid again!” “I don't need to get laid to survive, Gabriel.” Gabriel was now fuming. How could Luke even think of refusing Marion after all the work that she had done to surprise him with everything. She stormed out the door, slamming it shut. On her way back, Gabriel literally ran into Pollyanna and Matt. After explaining why she was beyond pissed, Matt told her: “Better let me talk to him first before you go off halfcocked Gabriel. After all I have been campaigning with him continuously for the last month and a half.” “Fine but hurry. The party is about to start and Marion is expecting Luke to be there.” The three of them walked back to Luke's chambers. Matt knocked before he entered, finding Luke still in front of the window. He signaled the women to stay in the hall and be quiet. “You know that you really pissed Gabriel off, right Luke?” “She's a big girl. She'll get over it.” Luke responded flatly. “Okay what gives, Luke? I've never seen you pissed like this.” “Oh, you really don't want to go there.” “If I didn't, I wouldn't have asked.” Luke took a deep breath and slowly let it out. “Pull up a seat Matt.” Luke stated as he turned around. After Matt had sat down, Luke started. “Do you know how much paperwork has to be done to keep the army running smoothly?” Matt was taken off guard at this “Ah no, I do not.” “Thought not. After getting back this afternoon I probably had about five hours of work to do. Causality list needs updated. Inventory list needs updated. Requisitions need to be filled out so that the army can get more supplies. Spy reports need read and digested so that we don't face more surprises like in that last battle. Always remember Matt that an army without spies is at best half blind. I mean the list is endless. I had planned on spending the rest of today on this so that I could actually take a day off tomorrow and relax a bit with nothing that needs done and spend the next day casually catching up. Now I won't get that day off for I still have that five hours of work to do plus the work from tomorrow, so now I will probably be stuck working all day, just to keep up. It wouldn't have been so bad but Marion changed the lock on my office so that I couldn't even get at least some work done before the fucking party.” “Wow; but I'm guessing that is only part of it, right?” “You know me so well that it's almost terrifying. Yes, that is only part of it; just think of it as the last straw. I have been getting worried for months now that Marion will start sipping back into her old upper-class habits and I'm horrified that she is. She's changed so much from the woman that I fell in love with that half the time I'm afraid that I don't even know her anymore. The shift in her attitude has been gradual but being forced to attend this party without even taking into consideration on what I had planned was the last straw. She has been treating me less then equal for quite some time now despite everything that I have done for her. I was always a bit afraid of this; that she would go slip back into thinking like a boneheaded noble instead of thinking like a person.” “Oh, come on man, it's not that bad, and you're sounding more than a bit petty right now.” Luke just gave him a hard stare. “As far as me being petty about this whole thing, you're right, I am and yes I know that. Also you damn well know that I don't stand for men treating woman less than them, why should I stand for some fucking noble treating me like I'm less than them.” “Because the noble in question is your wife and for some reason, she loves you although right now I don't know why.” “That just makes it worse because she knows my history and she knows what makes me tick. She just flat out doesn't care anymore. Now if you will kindly excuse me, I have a letter to write and then I have to pack.” Matt was now terrified for Luke was in many ways the glue which held the army together. He rushed out nearly running the woman over for they had been trying to listen through the door. “We need to get Marion down here Now!” Matt said over his shoulder as he ran. “I think Luke is about to resign and leave.” Gabriel was dumbfounded. Why would Luke throw away everything that he had over a party? Matt rushed to catch Marion before she could make her entrance to the party for, she would be much harder to get out then. He just barely managed to catch her and he told her everything about what Luke and him had talked about. She rushed back to her and Luke's chambers after asking Matt, Pollyanna, and Gabriel to stay behind. This was something that her and Luke would have to sort out for themselves. On her way back she was going through just about every emotion possible starting with: ‘How dare he do this to me after everything I have done?' to ‘Is he actually serious?' to ‘What the fuck will I do without him?' Marion barged into the room just as Luke had finished the letter and had signed it. “Hello, Marion. I figured that you would send one for your lackeys down here” “Damn It Luke! You know me better than that.” “Do I? I'm not so sure anymore, and since Matt has probably told you everything that we talked about, why don't we just skip the bull. I still need to pack.” “Luke, Look At Me!” Luke didn't “Damn It Luke, When I Say Look At Me, You Look At Me!” Luke just shook his head as he continued to pack his original backpack with everything that he would be needing. “You know I find it amazing that you know what my problem is, and yet all you do is reinforce my position. Don't pull that stunt on the battlefield here in a couple of months Marion of York or you will be smashed.” He had purposely added her formal name as a kind of last-minute reminder. Luke still faintly hoped that he and Marion could work things out but that hope was getting dimmer by the second. “If you try to leave, I will have you arrested!” “Then you had better call the guards, Cecilia, for I will only be here for another couple of minutes.” “I'm Marion You Brainless Peasant, Not My Bitch Sister!” Marion screamed. Luke just looked calmly at her and squinted. “Sorry about that but I'm having a really difficult time telling the two of you apart.” With that he zipped up his backpack and threw it over his shoulder. “I wish you luck, Marion of York, for you will be needing it.” Marion was about to issue a retort to that. She wasn't her evil sister, but something stopped her. Luke had given her the same look that he had always given Cecilia. It wasn't the look of love or lust. It was the look to see how easily he could kill her if he had to. The realization of what was going on struck Marion so hard that she felt like she had just jumped off the top of the castle. She Was slowly turning into Cecilia. Slowly she was turning her back on what had made her army so strong in the first place and what had delivered it so many victories. That something, was treating everyone as the person they are. Not by what gender they were or what family they were born into but who they were. Cecilia had believed that since she was of noble stock that she could do anything she wanted. That she could just order people around like they were her livestock or worse furniture. Marion collapsed where she stood and broke out into tears. Through her tears, she could see that Luke had stopped in front of her. Slowly she looked up at him. The look that greeted her told her that Luke thought that she was acting and that she wasn't fooling him. Again, she was about to tear him a new one, but again something deep inside her stopped her. Quickly examining it, she found that the thing that had stopped her was her absolute love for Luke. He had rescued her from certain death after all. He had treated her as an equal person despite that fact that she was a woman and here she was starting to treat him as if he were someone who had to follow her no questions asked. Luke started to step around her so that he could leave. “Please Luke. Please stay. Please?” She looked up at his eyes through her tear-filled ones and she could see that she still had some distance to go yet for he wasn't convinced yet. “I know now what I have been becoming and for that I am truly sorry darling. It doesn't do anyone any good if I become the very people that we have been kicking out of power for the power to rule truly belongs to all people. It is up to them who rules over them and what laws are enabled. If the ones in power though get too powerful, even if it's only in their own minds then they quickly become tyrants and will destroy everything; even though they believe that they are doing good.” She continued; “Please Luke, forgive me for I forget what we had to fight against. One other thing I know is that I won't be able to continue on if I were to lose you. You are truly irreplaceable in my heart.” With this she bowed her head again and sobbed freely. Tears ran down her cheeks and left streaks through her make-up but she didn't care. She then felt a large calloused hand gently caress her cheek and she looked up. Luke was on his knees in front of her so that he could look straight into her eyes. She could barely see him for her eyes were so filled with tears though. Gently, ever so gently he pulled her head forward and she responded. Their lips met and Marion could swear that her heart would burst for she now knew that they would make it through this and in the end that was all that mattered to her. Chapter 58. Luke gently picked her up off the floor and made sure that her feet were underneath her before he let her go. As he had picked her up, she lowered her head for she was so ashamed of what she had almost done. Luke ever so gently put his fingers under her chin to lift her head back up. As she lifted her head to face him, he slid his hand back along her jawline and stopped only once his fingers were buried in her hair. Automatically and without thinking about it, Marion stood up on her toes while Luke bent down. What followed was one of the most passionate kisses that they had ever experienced. Marion felt like her lungs had been emptied of air but she was in no hurry to breath for breathing would have meant pausing this kiss and that was the last thing on her mind. Her tongue forced its way into Luke's mouth and began to wrestle with his for space. Suddenly the room felt like it was on fire to Marion. As her hands began to roam Luke's body, there was a knock at the door. ‘Damn it' she thought “Yes, what is it?” She called out. “It's Gabriel dearie, it's time for your entrance.” “Fuck!” said Luke and Marion together. “Fine but you had better come in for I'm going to need some help to get presentable in a hurry.” When Gabriel saw Marion, she rushed to her side. “Marion, what happened?!?! What the fuck did that bastard do to you?” Marion shot a quick glance to her husband telling him to keep quiet and that she would handle this. Luke shrugged and went to get dressed. “Nothing is wrong Gabriel. It's just that I have forgotten just who I am and what we have been fighting for all this time. Fortunately, Luke took the time to remind me before he took off.” “So, is he?” At this point Luke cleared his throat from the door way. He had the letter that he had wrote in his hand. He didn't say anything but he ripped the letter in two and threw it in the fireplace. Marion and Gabriel smiled at each other for they both loved Luke, but Gabriel knew that she would have to apologize for her behavior. It ashamed her to think that she had treated Luke worse than Marion had. She walked into where Luke was getting dressed and was met by the sight of Luke pulling his pants up over his muscular ass. Gabriel's pussy responded as it usually did when she saw Luke without clothes on, but this time she firmly told her pussy to shut up for she had important business to attend to. “Luke?” she squeaked “Yes?” “I would like to apolog...” That was as far as she got. “Stop. Never apologize for it's a sign of weakness.” “But...” Luke just turned and looked at her. She swallowed hard and nodded. Marion in the meanwhile had walked into the bathroom to fix her make-up. “Gabriel” she called out “Can you help me with this so we can get going?” “Coming.” By the time the ladies had fixed themselves back up, Luke was ready to go too. He made an absolutely dashing figure in his dress uniform with his medals on his chest and highly polished sword handing from his hip. Bright white pants, black polished shoes, bright blue jacket with polished brass buttons and red trim, a white hat with a polished black rim, and white gloves finished off the uniform. For the time being since he was inside, his hat was in the crook of his left arm. Instead of his familiar eagle, globe, and anchor insignia on it though, Marion had placed a lion that was reared up on its hind legs. He had to admit that she had good taste. When Luke saw the women come out of the bathroom, he forgot how to breathe. When they had their make-up, hair, and gowns fixed, the ladies were breathtaking. They could almost feel Luke's eyes tracing every one of their curves and they thoroughly enjoyed the feeling. They enjoyed the stunned look on his face even more. Luke was suddenly glad that he wasn't a cartoon character for his jaw would have hit the floor and his tongue would have unrolled. They walked up to him and Marion asked: “General?” Luke remembers suddenly where he was and who he was. He fixed his hat on his head and offered both woman an arm which they promptly took. They walked like this all the way to the great hall and they were only a couple of minutes late when they arrived. As they were entering, they were announced: “Marion Of York, General Luke Macdougall, Colonel Gabriel” Everyone in the hall froze and looked at the trio. Luke could see that a number of the men blushed a bit and turned their hips to face another direction while Gabriel and Marion noticed that the women's cheeks got a bit redder. So, the three of them entered, each stunning in their own way. Once they had entered, the music started and Gabriel went to find some drinks. Luke and Marion just looked at one another and without saying a word started dancing. Marion got one hell of a surprise after the first dance finished for Alice walked up wearing the green dress that Marion had made for her. Marion glanced at Luke and noticed that his eyes were fully dilated for Alice was beyond stunning. Her green dress perfectly offset her fire red hair, emerald green eyes, and flawless snow-white skin. Another reason that Luke's eyes were dilated was that Alice reminded him of someone from his past, someone that he had loved completely, someone that he hadn't told anyone about. Marion gave her a little hug, just to say hello. Alice had decided to show up after all, because her fiancé had some unexpected business that he had to attend to and all of her patients were in good shape at the hospital. Luke bowed deeply to her and Marion giggled. The three of them talked for a little bit until Gabriel returned with drinks for everyone. She had seen Alice approach so she had got a drink for Alice as well. The ladies all had wine, while Luke had whiskey that his still had been making. Normally it was distilled further for medical uses but Marion had diverted enough off for the party this evening. The party turned out to be really enjoyable for everyone there. The food, drink, and music were all excellent. Luke danced mostly with Marion, but he did dance a few fast and slow songs with Gabriel and even a couple with both Pollyanna and Alice. When Luke was off dancing with Pollyanna and Alice; Marion and Gabriel danced a few songs together. They even danced a few with Matt as well. By the time the party was done it was one am the next morning. Everyone was happy but tired. Luke, Marion, and Gabriel escorted Pollyanna and Matt back to their chambers where Marion and Gabriel gave both Pollyanna and Matt parting hugs. Luke gave Matt a firm handshake and kissed Pollyanna's hand much to her delight. They then parted company and the three of them went back to their own chambers. When they got there Luke stopped, he then suddenly picked Marion up, and carried her in with her laughing the whole way. Gabriel smiled warmly at seeing her two favorite people back to getting along. Luke carried Marion all the way to their bed. He didn't need to stop and light any of the lamps for there was enough moonlight coming through the windows to light the bedroom up just enough. He gently laid her out on the bed and Marion smiled up at him. He threw his hat across the room and Marion started working on Luke's jacket buttons. As she was working on his buttons, he was kissing her softly, not only on her lips but also on her neck. As Marion got Luke's jacket off, Luke found the knot that held her halter top up and untied it. Gently, ever so gently, his rough hands slide down under Marion's dress and slowly pushed it down as Marion continued to undress Luke. By this time, she had become an expert at unfastening men's belts and quickly had her hands exploring the inside of his pants. As her hands found Luke's cock, his found her tits. He used a feather light touch that caused electricity to flow into Marion's body. Her level of excitement started to skyrocket and she began to rub little Luke faster. Luke moved his mouth down from Marion's neck and gently blew across both her nipples them making them rock hard. As Luke blew across her nipples, Marion began to moan loudly and her hips began to thrust up on their own; her hands were now wrapped around Luke's head with her fingers burying themselves in his hair to keep his lips where they were at. He began to lick and kiss her tits tenderly and this was really driving Marion wild. Of course, it helped that Luke was still slowly pushing Marion's dress down and by now he was down to her waist. He then stopped pushing her dress down and started to run his fingers across Marion's stomach so lightly that she almost couldn't feel them. By now her pussy felt like it had a river running out of it and she was rubbing her legs together just to try and get some relief. Luke caught on to this and he shifted so that he could hold her legs still. This forced the electricity that Marion was feeling to build up for it now had no escape. She just couldn't believe how intense her feelings were at the moment and Luke hadn't even reached her delicate flower yet; hell, he wasn't even close to it. She started having mini-orgasms that were hitting her body so fast that she wasn't sure if it was multiple orgasms or just one really long lasting one. Luke had slowed down just enough for Marion's brain to temporary take back control of her body so that she could get the rest of Luke's clothes off. As she threw the last of his clothes off, she pushed Luke over on his back. She was going to take this chance to show Luke just how much she loved him. She started off by wiggling her hips a bit so that her dress fell off. Then it was time for her to start nibbling on and kissing Luke's chiseled body for with all his campaigning he now had a body that would have made a Greek god envious. As Marion was kissing his body, Luke was gently running one of his hands through Marion's golden hair for he loved the feeling of her silky hair slipping between his fingers. Marion worked her way down Luke's body making sure to check every part of it. It took her a little bit but she finally reached his rock-hard cock. She kissed her way around the base and then kissed her way up the shaft. She loved how the skin was so soft but his cock as a whole was so hard. His veins hadn't popped yet but Marion was just getting started. She kissed all around his helmet before she kissed the very tip. This caused Luke's cock to jump suddenly. Marion could taste the precum and she felt like she was stealing the food of the Gods for she loved the taste so much. She then took Luke's entire cock into her mouth much to his surprise gently pushed it into her throat. This was something that she had been practicing secretly on with her strap-on so that she could take his entire cock without gagging. As she was bobbing up and down on Luke's shaft, he was barely able to pick Marion up and swing her pussy up, over his mouth, which he attacked fiercely. He ran his rough tongue over her clit causing her to gasp. He worked up and down her slit making sure to send his tongue running up into her cunt and between her swollen lips. As Marion moaned with Luke's cock in her mouth, the vibrations sent Luke higher and higher. He began to thrust up into Marion's throat and she could feel his cock get harder still. With her tongue she could feel the veins pops up on his shaft and she knew that it wouldn't be long now. Luke knew that he was getting close so he moved up and sucked Marion's clit between his teeth. She reacted exactly how he expected by exploding all over Luke's face. This was more than Luke could take and he blew his load down Marion's throat. After a couple of shots, she moved her head back slightly and she took the rest of his cum in her mouth. She moved it back and forth across her tongue before she swallowed it. By this time both of their bodies were covered in a sheen of sweat that made their bodies glisten in the moon light. Marion slowly got herself spun around and rested for a bit on Luke's strong chest as she listened to Luke's heart beat rhythmically and his lungs slowly expand and contract. She could barely keep her eyes open as she looked up at Luke's face and he looked down at her with his eyes full of love. Marion hoped that she would have that look burned into her memory forever. Luke moved his head down toward Marion and she got the point moving up to kiss him passionately. By listening to the other woman in the castle, she knew just how damn lucky she really was. Most of the other men barely lasted long enough to get their woman barely wet and they were usually let high and dry. Marion in the meanwhile was always satisfied and Luke always made sure that she would get at least one orgasm per romp and that was on a bad day. As Marion lay there, her hands began to move around again. They found Luke's cock and within minutes had Luke rock hard again. Marion straddled Luke before he could make any protest which he wasn't going to do anyway. As she moved down, Marion grabbed Luke's cock and guided it into its parking place. As Marion felt the tip slide in, she sat up and impaled herself slowly. Millimeter by millimeter she felt his cock slide deeper inside her until she felt Luke's hair mesh against her smooth mound. Slowly she rose up until all that was inside her was his tip. She repeated this for almost fifteen minutes. The objective wasn't to cum, it was to show their love for each other for the entire time her eyes never once left his. Marion's legs eventually started to tire so Luke rolled over putting him on top. He then started slowly pushing into her. When his pubes hit Marion's mound he pushed in at a different angle and this pushed him in even deeper. When he did this, she could feel his tip kissing her cervix and she just couldn't get enough of this. Marion started to roll her hips trying to make sure that that Luke's cock hit every part of her tight pussy. As they worked at each other, they slowly picked up speed. Then it happened, Luke slipped out and on his next thrust, his cock made contact with Marion's puckered hole. They both froze for a moment before Marion put her hands on Luke's ass to pull him in. To give himself a better angle, he took Marion's feet and put them up on his shoulders. This really opened her up to his assaults. It took Luke a few thrust but he was able to get his cock into Marion's super tight ass. She felt like she was being ripped apart but she would die before she would even think of telling Luke to stop. The feeling of his cock going into her ass sent her to new heights and these were made even higher when Luke used his nimble fingers to flick and rub her button. Marion lost all ability to function as she approached a massive orgasm. When Luke used his other hand to rub her nipples, Marion couldn't take it anymore. She screamed at the top of her lungs and sprayed all over as she shook violently. Luke felt like Marion's tight ass was going to cut his cock off, for when she started to scream, Luke felt her ass get even tighter yet. He made one last mighty thrust and as he growled and saw stars in his eyes, he sent a flood of hot cum deep into Marion's bowels. Slowly Luke pulled out of her ass and as he did, a white river ran out; but neither of them cared one bit. Luke collapsed next to her and noticed that Marion had passed out. He pulled her body to him and passed out himself before he could even get the cover over them. Sometime later, Gabriel walked by as she had to go bathroom for, she had been sleeping on a coach in one of the other rooms. She pulled the cover up over both of them and kissed both of them on their foreheads. Chapter 59. The next morning both Luke and Marion were sore from their extended sexcapades; in fact, Marion could barely walk and Luke's muscles were sore like they had not been in years. So, it didn't help matters any when Gabriel burst into the bedroom fresh as a daisy. Her chirping got moans and groans from both Marion and Luke. “It should be illegal for anyone to be that cheerful in the morning” complained Marion. “I second that motion” groined Luke. Gabriel ever looking for a chance to have some fun; skipped over to the window and threw back the curtains. Luke moaned in his misery as he grabbed a cover and drew it over his and Marion's head. It was already late in the morning and it was a bright day out. “Oh, you two are just complaining cause you're both getting old!” said Gabriel earning another moan from Luke and Marion threw an extra pillow at her. Gabriel then went into the bathroom and started the hot water for their tub. She figured that the warm water would help get Marion and Luke going again. Luke for one was really missing coffee at this moment. When he was a marine, he would almost drink coffee exclusively and while he had slowed down drastically as a civilian, he still liked to have a cup or two once in a while. Now he was feeling that he would do about anything for a cup, even a crappy cup. Gabriel came in from the bathroom and almost threw Marion and Luke out of bed. She frog-marched both of them into the bathroom where they slide into the warm water with moans of pleasure. When Gabriel had been forcing Marion into the bathroom, she hadn't missed that Marion's ass had dried rivers of cum coming out of it. Now Gabriel knew why Marion was so slow moving this morning and why she and Luke had been so noisy the night before. So now it was time to add insult to injury. Gabriel swatted Marion's ass, leaving a light red mark and getting a very loud yip from Marion. Gabriel then wrapped her arms around Marion's beautiful body: “What's wrong honey? Why is your ass so sore?” She asked in her innocent schoolgirl voice. “I'm guessing that you already know why my ass is sore. I will say this though, that is definitely not the last time we do that. I mean I wouldn't want having my ass fucked by Luke's monster every day but once in a while would be very nice.” Marion stated as she slid under the water. Luke and Marion stayed and soaked until the water was cold. The warm water had done wonders on their sore muscles and now it was time to start the day. Luke went down to his workshop to continue working an accurate watch. He already had made some that could keep time to within five minutes a day, but that wasn't anywhere close enough for him. He was after a chronograph so that when Marion got a navy, they could operate effectively at sea for months at a time. Also, it would allow the trains that were slowing getting more available to operate much more efficiently. He really enjoyed engineering and it helped him relax. He worked for a few hours before he went to find lunch and then it was time for his favorite activity; it was time to play with his daughter for a few hours. Mackenzie was growing rapidly and was starting to try to crawl. Luke just adored his daughter and Marion loved the look on his face when they played together. She loved it because he was at his absolute happiest when he played with their daughter. He would give her horsy rides around the room and tickle her and once she was tired, he would read to her while she fell asleep. This is what Luke truly missed while he was away on campaigns, he missed watching his daughter grow up and reading to her. When Marion told the other castle woman about Luke, they simply wouldn't believe her. It wasn't until they were able to peek into where Luke was playing with Mackenzie one afternoon that the other women started believing Marion. Marion had carefully watched Luke today as well. It warmed her heart to see her big, strong husband be so loving and gentle with their daughter. After a little while, she had to move away because she was quietly crying for, she was so awkward with children. She, of course, knew why she was so awkward around children. When she had been growing up, there wasn't that many other children in the castle and her own father ignored her most of the time. She was raised by an endless line of tutors and governesses. Many of the governesses also doubled as her father's whores at night. It was no wonder really that Cecilia had grown up so messed up. Marion herself had been weak and messed up as well until she met Luke. Moved by some force, Marion went to find Pollyanna to see how her book sales were coming along. Marion knew that sales were slowly picking up as more people learned how to read and write. The bible that Pollyanna printed was the best seller, especially since it was printed in English and not Latin. Unsurprisingly the biggest market for some of the more technical books was the small Jewish community. It had been a battle royal to get them to be more open and for her people to accept this. It helped that Luke was as powerful as he was and that he made it crystal clear to everyone that he wouldn't tolerate any discrimination of any kind from anyone. Marion having a number of court Jews also helped some, especially once Marion had instructed them to help teach the rest of the population how to read and write. Pollyanna's book business was beginning to expand and some of Luke's more technical books were now in more demand. Of course, the church labelled these books as heresy and at one time this would have frightened Marion badly, but now she laughed at the church and she made damn sure that the church knew all about her feelings of them. These books after all had begun to make a difference in ordinary people's lives, for the information they contained: helped farmers get better yields from their fields, they helped blacksmiths make better steel, they helped people learn how to read, and perhaps most important of all, they had taught Alice medicine and Pollyanna engineering. Since Marion had visited one of Pollyanna's enterprises, her next stop was to visit one of Alice's. At first, Alice had refused to make any money off of her medicines or medical skills, but as time went on, Alice noticed that a lot of people that were initially interested in medicine had quit once they learned of Alice's belief that money should not be made off of other's suffering. One day she was talking to Luke about this for she couldn't understand why more people didn't want to follow her in her noble pursuit. “Alice; I will tell you why more people don't want to learn medicine, but I first must warn you that the reason will piss you off to no ends, but if you follow my advice then interest in practicing medicine will pick up.” “Fine, tell me” she huffed. “People don't want to learn medicine because right now you refuse to make money at it. This keeps your cost down, which you rightly pass on to the consumer, But; in order for people to get an interest in a career, especially one as complicated as medicine, they have to be able to make money at it. We had a number of countries with socialized medicine programs where I came from and the vast majority of these were overwhelmed because nobody wanted to make products or services for them. In the United States we didn't have socialized medicine and usually if you got sick you could get right in to see a doctor but a number of people would go bankrupt due to the way the system was ran. Other countries were far worse in that you might have to wait over Six Months to get testing done and you damn well know that in medicine, speed is essential. Remember this Alice, capitalism is Thee single most powerful economic system ever developed by humans. Why you ask? Well capitalism takes full advantage of the basic human emotion of greed and harnesses that to improve the lives of countless people along the way. Are there going to be poor, of course, because for a good percentage of people, capitalism screws them over for whatever reason. Maybe that they are lazy or unreliable, maybe their luck is terrible, or something. But for the vast majority of people; capitalism, as long as it is controlled and steered correctly is a very good thing. It allows people to work to their ability and they can get whatever job suits them best. If they want more money; they can then advance themselves so that they and their families can live more comfortably. No other economic system offers this. Socialism and communism both take from the people who work and are successful at something and gives it to people who didn't do anything to earn it. All this does is makes whatever dumbass politician that took the money in the first place more popular with the masses but it will quickly lead to disaster because the talented and ambitious people won't produce anymore then they have to, to take care of themselves. And that's even assuming that they stay. Before long nobody is producing anything and everyone, except the few key people in the government who support the ruler, are beyond dirt poor. The government of course will try to pass the blame off to someone else but in the end, socialism always turns out to be a disaster for everyone. Communism is even worse and always leads to mass killings because communist governments can't stand people who question what they are doing in the slightest. This is why regulated capitalism is the best way to go. All the government needs to do, is to ensure that the playing field remains as level as possible and let private money determine what is made and what price it's sold at. This way the vast majority of people will see the benefits.” Alice hearing this flew into a rage and Luke just sat there quietly while she ranted on. When she had finally calmed down Luke gave her his hardest look. “Go think about all I have said. Think about hard Alice. In a couple of days come back and see me if you think that you can come up with something better.” Alice stormed back to her chambers and locked herself inside. She could be heard at all hours of day arguing with herself for hours on end. On and on she went but as she went, her attitude started to slowly shift as she analyzed everything that she knew about human nature and what Luke had said. She analyzed every word that he had said and every scrap of knowledge from his computer. She questioned Pollyanna, Marion, Gabriel, Matt, Markus, and anyone else she could find. Eventually she had to admit that Luke had been correct as usual and that she was the reason that very few people wanted to be in medicine. Eventually she went to find Luke again. This time she asked him to help her set up a successful medical business. Hopefully this way more people would be interested in learning medicine and this would enable Alice to turn medicine into something that everyone could get. That had been months ago and now Alice had a thriving medical empire. She would use most of the profits to help train more medical personal or for outreach operations. She did divert enough off so that she and Markus could have a comfortable lifestyle. Now people's interest in medicine was starting to pick up and ambitious people were looking for ways to make money from searching for better cures to making better instruments. Alice had to admit that Luke had been correct but as usual he refused the apology saying: “Hey you didn't know. Alice you are driven to be the best doctor you can be and that is a very pure and noble thing of you, but you have to remember that the vast majority of people don't have your drive or your opportunities, after all if I hadn't picked you to be one of my whores then you would have never known about your medical talents. Always remember that you can dream of a better world all you want to but reality doesn't give a shit about your dreams or your ideas. You have to be willing to adjust your dreams to reality because reality doesn't bend to your dreams.” Alice had then sworn that she would help as many people as possible to see and reach their medical potential. As soon as her business had taken off, she founded a school to teach others about medicine. Her business and school were now thriving and once again Marion silently thanked God for bringing Luke into her world and mostly for bringing him to her. To be continued in part 13, Based on a post by somethin fishy, for Sex Stories.

About this episode: Does acetaminophen use during pregnancy cause autism in children? In this episode: Brian Lee, who led the largest study on acetaminophen use and neurodevelopmental outcomes, walks through the study's findings—as well as the challenges of researching the causal effects of medication use during pregnancy. Then, biostatistician Elizabeth Stuart discusses how she thinks about assessing potential cause-and-effect relationships when studies have different strengths and weaknesses. Guest: Brian Lee, PhD, MHS, is a professor of epidemiology and biostatistics at the Dornsife School of Public Health at Drexel University.   Elizabeth Stuart, PhD, is Chair in the Department of Biostatistics at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, where she focuses on designing and interpreting studies exploring causal effects. Host: Dr. Josh Sharfstein is distinguished professor of the practice in Health Policy and Management, a pediatrician, and former secretary of Maryland's Health Department. Show links and related content: Acetaminophen Use During Pregnancy and Children's Risk of Autism, ADHD, and Intellectual Disability—JAMA What the evidence tells us about Tylenol, leucovorin, and autism—STAT Discovering How Environment Affects Autism—Hopkins Bloomberg Public Health Magazine Does A Really Cause B? How a Biostatistician Thinks About Causality—Public Health On Call (August 2024) Transcript information: Looking for episode transcripts? Open our podcast on the Apple Podcasts app (desktop or mobile) or the Spotify mobile app to access an auto-generated transcript of any episode. Closed captioning is also available for every episode on our YouTube channel. Contact us: Have a question about something you heard? Looking for a transcript? Want to suggest a topic or guest? Contact us via email or visit our website. Follow us: @‌PublicHealthPod on Bluesky @‌JohnsHopkinsSPH on Instagram @‌JohnsHopkinsSPH on Facebook @‌PublicHealthOnCall on YouTube Here's our RSS feed Note: These podcasts are a conversation between the participants, and do not represent the position of Johns Hopkins University.

Get early access to Alex's next live-cohort courses!Today's clip is from episode 141 of the podcast, with Sam Witty.Alex and Sam discuss the ChiRho project, delving into the intricacies of causal inference, particularly focusing on Do-Calculus, regression discontinuity designs, and Bayesian structural causal inference. They explain ChiRho's design philosophy, emphasizing its modular and extensible nature, and highlights the importance of efficient estimation in causal inference, making complex statistical methods accessible to users without extensive expertise.Get the full discussion here.Intro to Bayes Course (first 2 lessons free)Advanced Regression Course (first 2 lessons free)Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work!Visit our Patreon page to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;)TranscriptThis is an automatic transcript and may therefore contain errors. Please get in touch if you're willing to correct them.

Send us a textCreate Your Causal Inference Roadmap. Causal Inference, TMLE & SensitivityIf you're into causal inference and machine learning you probably heard about double machine learning (DML).DML is one of the most popular frameworks leveraging machine learning algorithms for causal inference, while offering good statistical properties.Yet...There's another framework that also leverages machine learning for causal inference that was created years earlier.Welcome to the world of targeted maximum likelihood estimation (TMLE).Our today's guest, Prof. Mark van der Laan (UC Berkeley) is the godfather of TMLE.In the episode, we discuss:- Similarities and differences between DML and TMLE- How to build a causal roadmap for your project- How Mark uses math to solve real-world problems- Why uncertainty quantification is so important------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Video version available on the Youtube: https://youtu.be/qr5JolEAuJURecorded on Sep 16, 2025 in Berkeley, California, US.------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------*About The Guest*Mark van der Laan is a Professor in Biostatistics and Statistics at UC Berkeley. He's the godfather of Targeted Maximum Likelihood Estimation (TMLE), a semiparametric framework that uses machine learning to estimate causal effects or other statistical parameters from observational data, and its new incarnation Targeted Machine Learning.*About The Host*Aleksander (Alex) Molak is an independent machine learning researcher, educator, entrepreneur and a best-selling author in the area of causality (https://amzn.to/3QhsRz4 ).Connect with Alex:- Alex on the Internet: https://bit.ly/aleksander-molak*Links*Libraries- Deep LTMLE (Python): https://github.com/shirakawatoru/dltmlePapers- Dang, ..., van der Laan et al. (2023) - "A Causal Roadmap for Generating High-Quality Real-World Evidence" (https://arxiv.org/abs/2305.06850)- Gruber, ..., van der Laan (2021) - "Developing a Targeted Learning-Based Statistical AnalysisSupport the showCausal Bandits PodcastCausal AI || Causal Machine Learning || Causal Inference & DiscoveryWeb: https://causalbanditspodcast.comConnect on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/aleksandermolak/Join Causal Python Weekly: https://causalpython.io The Causal Book: https://amzn.to/3QhsRz4

The traditional mechanistic framework must give way to a richer understanding of how brains actually generate behavior over time.

In this special episode, I sit down with renowned Jungian analyst Professor Murray Stein for a deep and wide-ranging conversation about Jung's core concepts: individuation, synchronicity, and kairos. We explore the mysteries of time, the nature of archetypes, the crisis of meaning in our era, and the role of consciousness in the cosmos. Along the way, we weave in personal stories, philosophical insights, and references to some of the most important works in depth psychology.Whether you're new to Jung or a longtime explorer of the psyche, I hope this episode inspires you to reflect on your own kairos moments and the deeper patterns shaping your life.Referenced Books, Ideas, and People:C.G. Jung (“Memories, Dreams, Reflections”)I Ching (Book of Changes)Hippocrates (Kairos & Kronos)Michel Serres (temporality as a folded handkerchief)Wolfgang Pauli (“Adam and Archetype: The Letters of C.G. Jung and Wolfgang Pauli”)Nathan Schwartz-Salant (“The Paradox of Negentropy”)William Blake (“To see a world in a grain of sand…”)Teilhard de Chardin (Omega Point)AstrologyMandalaThe Age of Pisces and Age of AquariusGnosticismThe Black Madonna pilgrimage site in SwitzerlandChapters & Timestamps00:00 Welcome & Introduction00:14 Key Jungian Terms: Individuation, Synchronicity, Kairos03:51 Archetypes & Synchronicity in Life14:51 Causality, Acausality, and the Nature of Time26:51 Evolution, Final Causation, and the Omega Point31:46 Consciousness, God, and the Human Role34:34 Dreams, the Unconscious, and Timelessness38:25 Synchronicity, Entropy, and Centropy44:07 Kairos, Kronos, and the Meaning of Time49:57 Collective Consciousness & Cultural Transformation54:43 Closing Reflectionswww.arabellathais.com

David Abel is a Senior Research Scientist at DeepMind on the Agency team, and an Honorary Fellow at the University of Edinburgh. His research blends computer science and philosophy, exploring foundational questions about reinforcement learning, definitions, and the nature of agency.  Featured References  Plasticity as the Mirror of Empowerment   David Abel, Michael Bowling, André Barreto, Will Dabney, Shi Dong, Steven Hansen, Anna Harutyunyan, Khimya Khetarpal, Clare Lyle, Razvan Pascanu, Georgios Piliouras, Doina Precup, Jonathan Richens, Mark Rowland, Tom Schaul, Satinder Singh  A Definition of Continual RL   David Abel, André Barreto, Benjamin Van Roy, Doina Precup, Hado van Hasselt, Satinder Singh  Agency is Frame-Dependent   David Abel, André Barreto, Michael Bowling, Will Dabney, Shi Dong, Steven Hansen, Anna Harutyunyan, Khimya Khetarpal, Clare Lyle, Razvan Pascanu, Georgios Piliouras, Doina Precup, Jonathan Richens, Mark Rowland, Tom Schaul, Satinder Singh  On the Expressivity of Markov Reward   David Abel, Will Dabney, Anna Harutyunyan, Mark Ho, Michael Littman, Doina Precup, Satinder Singh — Outstanding Paper Award, NeurIPS 2021  Additional References  Bidirectional Communication Theory — Marko 1973  Causality, Feedback and Directed Information — Massey 1990  The Big World Hypothesis — Javed et al. 2024  Loss of plasticity in deep continual learning — Dohare et al. 2024  Three Dogmas of Reinforcement Learning — Abel 2024  Explaining dopamine through prediction errors and beyond — Gershman et al. 2024  David Abel Google Scholar  David Abel personal website  

Dr. Michael Timothy Bennett is a computer scientist who's deeply interested in understanding artificial intelligence, consciousness, and what it means to be alive. He's known for his provocative paper "What the F*** is Artificial Intelligence" which challenges conventional thinking about AI and intelligence.**SPONSOR MESSAGES***Prolific: Quality data. From real people. For faster breakthroughs.https://prolific.com/mlst?utm_campaign=98404559-MLST&utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=podcast&utm_content=mb***Michael takes us on a journey through some of the biggest questions in AI and consciousness. He starts by exploring what intelligence actually is - settling on the idea that it's about "adaptation with limited resources" (a definition from researcher Pei Wang that he particularly likes).The discussion ranges from technical AI concepts to philosophical questions about consciousness, with Michael offering fresh perspectives that challenge Silicon Valley's "just scale it up" approach to AI. He argues that true intelligence isn't just about having more parameters or data - it's about being able to adapt efficiently, like biological systems do.TOC:1. Introduction & Paper Overview [00:01:34]2. Definitions of Intelligence [00:02:54]3. Formal Models (AIXI, Active Inference) [00:07:06]4. Causality, Abstraction & Embodiment [00:10:45]5. Computational Dualism & Mortal Computation [00:25:51]6. Modern AI, AGI Progress & Benchmarks [00:31:30]7. Hybrid AI Approaches [00:35:00]8. Consciousness & The Hard Problem [00:39:35]9. The Diverse Intelligences Summer Institute (DISI) [00:53:20]10. Living Systems & Self-Organization [00:54:17]11. Closing Thoughts [01:04:24]Michaels socials:https://michaeltimothybennett.com/https://x.com/MiTiBennettTranscript:https://app.rescript.info/public/share/4jSKbcM77Sf6Zn-Ms4hda7C4krRrMcQt0qwYqiqPTPIReferences:Bennett, M.T. "What the F*** is Artificial Intelligence"https://arxiv.org/abs/2503.23923Bennett, M.T. "Are Biological Systems More Intelligent Than Artificial Intelligence?" https://arxiv.org/abs/2405.02325Bennett, M.T. PhD Thesis "How To Build Conscious Machines"https://osf.io/preprints/thesiscommons/wehmg_v1Legg, S. & Hutter, M. (2007). "Universal Intelligence: A Definition of Machine Intelligence"Wang, P. "Defining Artificial Intelligence" - on non-axiomatic reasoning systems (NARS)Chollet, F. (2019). "On the Measure of Intelligence" - introduces the ARC benchmark and developer-aware generalizationHutter, M. (2005). "Universal Artificial Intelligence: Sequential Decisions Based on Algorithmic Probability"Chalmers, D. "The Hard Problem of Consciousness"Descartes, R. - Cartesian dualism and the pineal gland theory (historical context)Friston, K. - Free Energy Principle and Active Inference frameworkLevin, M. - Work on collective intelligence, cancer as information isolation, and "mind blindness"Hinton, G. (2022). "The Forward-Forward Algorithm" - introduces mortal computation conceptAlexander Ororbia & Friston - Formal treatment of mortal computationSutton, R. "The Bitter Lesson" - on search and learning in AIPearl, J. "The Book of Why" - causal inference and reasoningAlternative AGI ApproachesWang, P. - NARS (Non-Axiomatic Reasoning System)Goertzel, B. - Hyperon system and modular AGI architecturesBenchmarks & EvaluationHendrycks, D. - Humanities Last Exam benchmark (mentioned re: saturation)Filmed at:Diverse Intelligences Summer Institute (DISI) https://disi.org/

Watching Now: Strange New Worlds is a Watching Now podcast from Couch Soup. Join us for reactions, reviews, and excitement about all things Trek. There's plenty of Star Wars here, let's pick up the Trek and go boldly on together! Join us for some laughs and ultra-nerdy discussion!

Prof. David Krakauer, President of the Santa Fe Institute argues that we are fundamentally confusing knowledge with intelligence, especially when it comes to AI.He defines true intelligence as the ability to do more with less—to solve novel problems with limited information. This is contrasted with current AI models, which he describes as doing less with more; they require astounding amounts of data to perform tasks that don't necessarily demonstrate true understanding or adaptation. He humorously calls this "really shit programming".David challenges the popular notion of "emergence" in Large Language Models (LLMs). He explains that the tech community's definition—seeing a sudden jump in a model's ability to perform a task like three-digit math—is superficial. True emergence, from a complex systems perspective, involves a fundamental change in the system's internal organization, allowing for a new, simpler, and more powerful level of description. He gives the example of moving from tracking individual water molecules to using the elegant laws of fluid dynamics. For LLMs to be truly emergent, we'd need to see them develop new, efficient internal representations, not just get better at memorizing patterns as they scale.Drawing on his background in evolutionary theory, David explains that systems like brains, and later, culture, evolved to process information that changes too quickly for genetic evolution to keep up. He calls culture "evolution at light speed" because it allows us to store our accumulated knowledge externally (in books, tools, etc.) and build upon it without corrupting the original.This leads to his concept of "exbodiment," where we outsource our cognitive load to the world through things like maps, abacuses, or even language itself. We create these external tools, internalize the skills they teach us, improve them, and create a feedback loop that enhances our collective intelligence.However, he ends with a warning. While technology has historically complemented our deficient abilities, modern AI presents a new danger. Because we have an evolutionary drive to conserve energy, we will inevitably outsource our thinking to AI if we can. He fears this is already leading to a "diminution and dilution" of human thought and creativity. Just as our muscles atrophy without use, he argues our brains will too, and we risk becoming mentally dependent on these systems.TOC:[00:00:00] Intelligence: Doing more with less[00:02:10] Why brains evolved: The limits of evolution[00:05:18] Culture as evolution at light speed[00:08:11] True meaning of emergence: "More is Different"[00:10:41] Why LLM capabilities are not true emergence[00:15:10] What real emergence would look like in AI[00:19:24] Symmetry breaking: Physics vs. Life[00:23:30] Two types of emergence: Knowledge In vs. Out[00:26:46] Causality, agency, and coarse-graining[00:32:24] "Exbodiment": Outsourcing thought to objects[00:35:05] Collective intelligence & the boundary of the mind[00:39:45] Mortal vs. Immortal forms of computation[00:42:13] The risk of AI: Atrophy of human thoughtDavid KrakauerPresident and William H. Miller Professor of Complex Systemshttps://www.santafe.edu/people/profile/david-krakauerREFS:Large Language Models and Emergence: A Complex Systems PerspectiveDavid C. Krakauer, John W. Krakauer, Melanie Mitchellhttps://arxiv.org/abs/2506.11135Filmed at the Diverse Intelligences Summer Institute:https://disi.org/

The extremely effective skill of recognizing and following the patterns that move us. And the detrimental, interfering behavior of attempting to explain those patterns.Support the showBecome a Membernontrivialpodcast.com Check out the Video Versionhttps://www.youtube.com/@nontrivialpodcast

In the present, the military and intelligence agencies are losing a war they have not yet fought. In the future, an unseen enemy has discovered a way to reverse time, albeit in a highly localized manner. Using something called “inverse radiation,” they can reverse the entropy of both objects and people so that they move through time in the opposite direction, at least from our fourth-dimensional point of view. It is a paradox in the timeline where the solution lies in how to fight a war through a backward causality loop. Additionally, the battlefield now includes narratives, alliances, and public opinion. It is about world control, domination, and the promise of a Golden Age. Listen tonight from 7-10 pm, pacific time, with Clyde Lewis and military analyst, Sean Patrick Hazlett on groundzeroplus.com. Call in to the LIVE show at 503-225-0860. #groundzeroplus #ClydeLewis #war #reversecausality #military

For AI to truly revolutionise drug discovery, it must move beyond pattern recognition and predictive analytics to include causality, which is essential for technical and regulatory success in drug discovery. In a new pharmaphorum podcast, web editor Nicole Raleigh speaks with Ben Sidders, chief scientific officer at Biorelate, a company leveraging advanced data science methods to transform the focus and impact of drug discovery and development. Sidders discusses how integrating causality in AI for biotechnology can drive greater R&D success, and more generally about how AI can contribute meaningfully and transparently to the advancement of biotechnology and drug development. You can also listen to episode 191a of the pharmaphorum podcast in the player below, download the episode to your computer, or find it - and subscribe to the rest of the series – on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Overcast, Pocket Casts, Podbean, and pretty much wherever else you download your other podcasts from.

I have a love/hate relationship with prayer. On the one hand, I find it hard to do consistently. On the other, I question its effectiveness. In this episode, I explore prayer in light of Eugene Peterson's book, Reversed Thunder, and have changed my opinions on prayer somewhat.

What's up everyone, today we have the pleasure of sitting down with Rajeev Nair, Co-Founder and Chief Product Officer at Lifesight. Summary: Rajeev believes measurement only works when it's unified or multi-modal, a stack that blends multi-touch attribution, incrementality, media mix modeling and causal AI, each used for the decision it fits. At Lifesight, that means using causal machine learning to surface hidden experiments in messy historical data and designing geo tests that reveal what actually drives lift. Attribution alone can't tell you what changed outcomes. Rajeev's team moved past dashboards and built a system that focuses on clarity, not correlation. Attribution handles daily tweaks. MMM guides long-term planning. Experiments validate what's real. Each tool plays a role, but none can stand alone.About RajeevRajeev Nair is the Co-Founder and Chief Product Officer at Lifesight, where he's spent the last several years shaping how modern marketers measure impact. Before that, he led product at Moda and served as a business intelligence analyst at Ebizu. He began his career as a technical business analyst at Infosys, building a foundation in data and systems thinking that still drives his work today.Digital Astrology and the Attribution IllusionLifesight started by building traditional attribution tools focused on tracking user journeys and distributing credit across touchpoints using ID graphs. The goal was to help brands understand which interactions influenced conversions. But Rajeev and his team quickly realized that attribution alone didn't answer the core question their customers kept asking: what actually drove incremental revenue? In response, they shifted gears around 2019, moving toward incrementality testing. They began with exposed versus synthetic control groups, then evolved to more scalable, identity-agnostic methods like geo testing. This pivot marked a fundamental change in their product philosophy; from mapping behavior to measuring causal impact.Rajeeve shares his thoughts on multi-touch attribution and the evolution of the space.The Dilution of The Term AttributionAttribution has been hijacked by tracking. Rajeev points straight at the rot. What used to be a way to understand which actions actually led to a customer buying something has become little more than a digital breadcrumb trail. Marketers keep calling it attribution, but what they're really doing is surveillance. They're collecting events and assigning credit based on who touched what ad and when, even if none of it actually changed the buyer's mind.The biggest failure here is causality. Rajeev is clear about this. Attribution is supposed to tell you what caused an outcome. Not what appeared next to it. Not what someone happened to click on right before. Actual cause and effect. Instead, we get dashboards full of correlation dressed up as insight. You might see a spike in conversions and assume it was the retargeting campaign, but you're building castles on sand if you can't prove causality.Then comes the complexity problem. Today's marketing stack is a jungle. You have:Paid ads across five different platformsOrganic contentDiscountsSeasonal shiftsPricing changesProduct updatesAll these things impact results, but most attribution models treat them like isolated variables. They don't ask, “What moved the needle more than it would've moved otherwise?” They ask, “Who touched the user last before they bought?” That's not measurement. That's astrology for marketers.“Attribution, in today's marketing context, has just come to mean tracking. The word itself has been diluted.”Multi-touch attribution doesn't save you either. It distributes credit differently, but it's still built on flawed data and weak assumptions. If you're measuring everything and understanding nothing, you're just spending more money to stay confused. Real marketing optimization requires incrementality analysis, not just a prettier funnel chart.To Measure What Caused a Sale, You Need ExperimentsEven with perfect data, attribution keeps lying. Rajeev learned that the hard way. His team chased the attribution grail by building identity graphs so detailed they could probably tell you what toothpaste a customer used. They stitched together first-party and third-party data, mapped the full user journey, and connected every touchpoint from TikTok to in-store checkout. Then they ran the numbers. What came back wasn't insight. It was statistical noise.Every marketing team that has sunk months into journey mapping has hit the same wall. At the bottom of the funnel, conversion paths light up like a Christmas tree. Retargeting ads, last-clicked emails, discount codes, they all scream high correlation with purchase. The logic feels airtight until you realize it's just recency bias with a data export. These touchpoints show up because they're close to conversion. That doesn't mean they caused it.“Causality is essentially correlation plus bias. Can we somehow manage the bias so that we could interpret the observed correlation as causality?”What Rajeev means is that while correlation on its own proves nothing, it's still the starting point. You need correlation to even guess at a causal link, but then you have to strip out all the bias (timing, selection, confounding variables) before you can claim anything actually drove the outcome. It's a messy process, and attribution data alone doesn't get you there.That's the puzzle. You can't infer real marketing effectiveness just from journey data. You can't say the billboard drove walk-ins if everyone had to walk past it to enter the store. You can't say coupons created conversions if they were handed out after someone had already walked in. Attribution doesn't answer those questions. It only tells you what happened. It doesn't explain why it happened.To measure causality, you need experiments. Rajeev gives it straight: run controlled tests. Put a billboard at one store, skip it at another. Offer discounts to some, hold them back from others. Then compare outcomes. Only when you hold a variable constant and see lift can you say something worked. Attribution on its own is just a correlation engine. And correlation, without real-world intervention, tells you absolutely nothing useful.Key takeaway: Attribution data without controlled testing isn't useful. If you want to know what drives results, design experiments. Stop treating customer journeys like gospel. Use journey data as a starting point, then isolate variables and measure actual lift. That way you can make real decisions instead of retroactively rationalizing whatever got funded last quarter.The Limitations of Incrementality Tests and How Quasi-Experiments Can HelpMost teams think they're being scientific when they run an incrementality test. But the truth is, these tests are fragile. Geo tests are high-effort and easy to mess up. Quasi experiments are directional at best and misleading at worst. If you're not careful with design, timing, and interpretation, you'll end up with results that look rigorous… but aren't.Why Most Teams Get Geo Testing Completely WrongGeo testing gets romanticized as this high-integrity measurement method, but most teams treat it like a side quest. They run it once, complain it was expensive, then go back to attribution dashboards because they're easier to screenshot in a slide deck. The truth is, geo testing takes guts. It means pulling spend from regions that bring in real revenue. That's not a simulation. It's a real-world test with real-world consequences.Rajeev breaks it down with...

Her early inspiration while growing up in Goa with limited exposure to career options. Her Father's intellectual influence despite personal hardships and shift in focus to technology.Personal tragedy sparked a resolve to become financially independent and learn deeply.Inspirational quote that shaped her mindset: “Even if your dreams haven't come true, be grateful that so haven't your nightmares.”Her first role at a startup with Hands-on work with networking protocols (LDAP, VPN, DNS). Learning using only RFCs and O'Reilly books—no StackOverflow! Importance of building deep expertise for long-term success.Experiences with Troubleshooting and System Thinking; Transitioned from reactive fixes to logical, structured problem-solving. Her depth of understanding helped in debugging and system optimization.Career move to Yahoo where she led Service Engineering for mobile and ads across global data centers got early exposure to big data and machine learning through ad recommendation systems and built "performance and scale muscle" through working at massive scale.Challenges of Scale and Performance Then vs. Now: Problems remain the same, but data volumes and complexity have exploded. How modern tools (like AI/ML) can help identify relevance and anomalies in large data sets.Design with Scale in Mind - Importance of flipping the design approach: think scale-first, not POC-first. Encourage starting with a big-picture view, even when building a small prototype. Highlights multiple scaling dimensions—data, compute, network, security.Getting Into ML and Data Science with early spark from MOOCs, TensorFlow experiments, and statistics; Transition into data science role at Infoblox, a cybersecurity firm with focus areas on DNS security, anomaly detection, threat intelligence.Building real-world ML model applications like supervised models for threat detection and storage forecasting; developing graph models to analyze DNS traffic patterns for anomalies and key challenges of managing and processing massive volumes of security data.Data stack and what it takes to build data lakes that support ML with emphasis on understanding the end-to-end AI pipelineShifts from “under the hood” ML to front-and-center GenAI & Barriers: Data readiness, ROI, explainability, regulatory compliance.Explainability in AI and importance of interpreting model decisions, especially in regulated industries.How Explainability Works -Trade-offs between interpretable models (e.g., decision trees) and complex ones (e.g., deep learning); Techniques for local and global model understanding.Aruna's Book on Interpretability and Explainability in AI Using Python (by Aruna C).The world of GenAI & Transformers - Explainability in LLMs and GenAI: From attention weights to neuron activation.Challenges of scale: billions of parameters make models harder to interpret. Exciting research areas: Concept tracing, gradient analysis, neuron behavior.GenAI Agents in Action - Transition from task-specific GenAI to multi-step agents. Agents as orchestrators of business workflows using tools + reasoning.Real-world impact of agents and AI for everyday lifeAruna Chakkirala is a seasoned leader with expertise in AI, Data and Cloud. She is an AI Solutions Architect at Microsoft where she was instrumental in the early adoption of Generative AI. In prior roles as a Data Scientist she has built models in cybersecurity and holds a patent in community detection for DNS querying. Through her two-decade career, she has developed expertise in scale, security, and strategy at various organizations such as Infoblox, Yahoo, Nokia, EFI, and Verisign. Aruna has led highly successful teams and thrives on working with cutting-edge technologies. She is a frequent technical and keynote speaker, panelist, author and an active blogger. She contributes to community open groups and serves as a guest faculty member at premier academic institutes. Her book titled "Interpretability and Explainability in AI using Python" covers the taxonomy and techniques for model explanations in AI including the latest research in LLMs. She believes that the success of real-world AI applications increasingly depends on well- defined architectures across all encompassing domains. Her current interests include Generative AI, applications of LLMs and SLMs, Causality, Mechanistic Interpretability, and Explainability tools.Her recently published book linkInterpretability and Explainability in AI Using Python: Decrypt AI Decision-Making Using Interpretability and Explainability with Python to Build Reliable Machine Learning Systems  https://amzn.in/d/00dSOwAOutside of work, she is an avid reader and enjoys creative writing. A passionate advocate for diversity and inclusion, she is actively involved in GHCI, LeanIn communities.

Send us a text*Causal Inference From Human Behavior, Reproducibility Crisis & The Power of Causal Graphs*Is Jonathan Heidt right that social media causes the mental health crisis in young people?If so, how can we be sure?Can other disciplines learn something from the reproducibility crisis in Psychology, and what is multiverse analysis?Join us for a conversation on causal inference from human behavior, the reproducibility crisis in sciences, and the power of causal graphs!------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Audio version available on YouTube: https://youtu.be/YQetmI-y5gMRecorded on May 16, 2025, in Leipzig, Germany.------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------*About The Guest*Julia Rohrer, PhD, is a researcher and personality psychologist at the University of Leipzig. She's interested in the effects of birth order, age patterns in personality, human well-being, and causal inference. Her works have been published in top journals, including Nature Human Behavior. She has been an active advocate for increased research transparency, and she continues this mission as a senior editor of Psychological Science. Julia frequently gives talks about good practices in science and causal inference. You can read Julia's blog at https://www.the100.ci/*Links*Papers- Rohrer, J. (2024) "Causal inference for psychologists who think that causal inference is not for them" (https://compass.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/spc3.12948)- Bailey, D., ..., Rohrer, J. et al (2024) "Causal inference on human behaviour" (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-024-01939-z.epdf)- Rohrer, J. et al (2024) "The Effects of Satisfaction with Different Domains of Life on GenInspiring Tech Leaders - The Technology PodcastInterviews with Tech Leaders and insights on the latest emerging technology trends.Listen on: Apple Podcasts SpotifySupport the showCausal Bandits PodcastCausal AI || Causal Machine Learning || Causal Inference & DiscoveryWeb: https://causalbanditspodcast.comConnect on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/aleksandermolak/Join Causal Python Weekly: https://causalpython.io The Causal Book: https://amzn.to/3QhsRz4

Nāgārjuna (c. 150 – c. 250 CE) was an Indian Buddhist monk and philosopher, regarded as the founder of the Madhyamaka (Middle Way) school of Mahāyāna Buddhism. His most famous work, Mūlamadhyamakakārikā (Root Verses on the Middle Way), presents the concept of śūnyatā (emptiness) and the two truths doctrine, emphasizing dependent origination and rejecting inherent existence. Nāgārjuna's philosophy has profoundly influenced Mahāyāna thought and continues to shape Buddhist studies and practice today.

Tasshin talks with Rosa Lewis (@rosaclewis) about her path, shadow work, awakening, Buddhahood, her body/heart/mind/soul model, and more...Rosa on XRosa's WebsiteYou can sign up for Tasshin's newsletter here.If you enjoyed this episode, consider supporting Tasshin and the Reach Truth Podcast on Patreon.

Support the show to get full episodes, full archive, and join the Discord community. The Transmitter is an online publication that aims to deliver useful information, insights and tools to build bridges across neuroscience and advance research. Visit thetransmitter.org to explore the latest neuroscience news and perspectives, written by journalists and scientists. Read more about our partnership. Sign up for Brain Inspired email alerts to be notified every time a new Brain Inspired episode is released. To explore more neuroscience news and perspectives, visit thetransmitter.org. You may have heard of the critical brain hypothesis. It goes something like this: brain activity operates near a dynamical regime called criticality, poised at the sweet spot between too much order and too much chaos, and this is a good thing because systems at criticality are optimized for computing, they maximize information transfer, they maximize the time range over which they operate, and a handful of other good properties. John Beggs has been studying criticality in brains for over 20 years now. His 2003 paper with Deitmar Plenz is one of of the first if not the first to show networks of neurons operating near criticality, and it gets cited in almost every criticality paper I read. John runs the Beggs Lab at Indiana University Bloomington, and a few years ago he literally wrote the book on criticality, called The Cortex and the Critical Point: Understanding the Power of Emergence, which I highly recommend as an excellent introduction to the topic, and he continues to work on criticality these days. On this episode we discuss what criticality is, why and how brains might strive for it, the past and present of how to measure it and why there isn't a consensus on how to measure it, what it means that criticality appears in so many natural systems outside of brains yet we want to say it's a special property of brains. These days John spends plenty of effort defending the criticality hypothesis from critics, so we discuss that, and much more. Beggs Lab. Book: The Cortex and the Critical Point: Understanding the Power of Emergence Related papers Addressing skepticism of the critical brain hypothesis Papers John mentioned: Tetzlaff et al 2010: Self-organized criticality in developing neuronal networks. Haldeman and Beggs 2005: Critical Branching Captures Activity in Living Neural Networks and Maximizes the Number of Metastable States. Bertschinger et al 2004: At the edge of chaos: Real-time computations and self-organized criticality in recurrent neural networks. Legenstein and Maass 2007: Edge of chaos and prediction of computational performance for neural circuit models. Kinouchi and Copelli 2006: Optimal dynamical range of excitable networks at criticality. Chialvo 2010: Emergent complex neural dynamics.. Mora and Bialek 2011: Are Biological Systems Poised at Criticality? Read the transcript. 0:00 - Intro 4:28 - What is criticality? 10:19 - Why is criticality special in brains? 15:34 - Measuring criticality 24:28 - Dynamic range and criticality 28:28 - Criticisms of criticality 31:43 - Current state of critical brain hypothesis 33:34 - Causality and criticality 36:39 - Criticality as a homeostatic set point 38:49 - Is criticality necessary for life? 50:15 - Shooting for criticality far from thermodynamic equilibrium 52:45 - Quasi- and near-criticality 55:03 - Cortex vs. whole brain 58:50 - Structural criticality through development 1:01:09 - Criticality in AI 1:03:56 - Most pressing criticisms of criticality 1:10:08 - Gradients of criticality 1:22:30 - Homeostasis vs. criticality 1:29:57 - Minds and criticality

Summary In this episode, Andy talks with Dr. Joe Sutherland, co-author of the new book Analytics the Right Way: A Business Leader's Guide to Putting Data to Productive Use. Joe is a leader in AI policy and practice, serving as the founding director of the Emory Center for AI Learning and lead principal investigator for the U.S. AI Safety Institute Consortium. Andy and Joe explore what it really takes to make better decisions in a world drowning in data and exploding with AI hype. They discuss the myths of data collection, how randomized controlled trials and causal inference impact decision quality, and Joe's “two magic questions” that help project managers stay focused on outcomes. They also dive into recent AI breakthroughs like DeepSeek, and why executives may be paralyzed when it comes to implementing AI strategy. If you're looking for insights on how to use data and AI more effectively to support leadership and project decision-making, this episode is for you! Sound Bites “What are we trying to achieve? And how would we know if we achieved it?” “Sometimes we're measuring success by handing out coupons to people who already had the product in their cart.” “AI doesn't replace decision-making—it demands better decisions from us.” “Causality is important for really big decisions because you want to know with a level of certainty that if I make this choice, this outcome is going to happen.” “Too often, we make decisions based on bad causal inference and wonder why the outcomes don't match our expectations.” “The ladder of evidence helps you decide how much certainty you need before making a decision—and how much it'll cost to climb higher.” “The truth is, we're not ready for human-out-of-the-loop AI—we're barely asking the right questions yet.” “Leadership isn't about replacing people with AI. It's about using AI to make your people more productive and happier.” “We're starting to see some evidence that when you use large language models in education, test scores go up in excess of 60%.” “This may be the first time the kids feel more behind than the parents when it comes to a new technology.” Chapters 00:00 Introduction 02:00 Start of Interview 02:09 What Are Some Myths About Data? 03:49 What Is the Potential Outcomes Framework? 08:50 What Are Counterfactuals? 13:00 How Do You Personally Evaluate Causality? 18:22 What Are the Two Magic Questions for Projects? 20:45 What's Getting Traction From the Book? 24:26 What Can We Learn From DeepSeek's Disruption? 27:30 Human In or Out of the AI Loop? 30:41 How Joe Uses AI Personally and Professionally 33:33 What Is the Future of Agentic AI? 35:37 Will AI Replace Jobs? 37:18 How Can Parents Prepare Kids for the AI Future? 41:19 End of Interview 41:46 Andy Comments After the Interview 45:07 Outtakes Learn More You can learn more about Joe and his book at AnalyticsTRW.com. For more learning on this topic, check out: Episode 381 with Jim Loehr about how to make wiser decisions. Episode 372 with Annie Duke on knowing when to quit. Episode 437 with Nada Sanders about future-prepping your career in the age of AI. Thank you for joining me for this episode of The People and Projects Podcast! Talent Triangle: Power Skills Topics: Leadership, Decision Making, Data Analytics, Artificial Intelligence, Project Management, Strategic Thinking, Causal Inference, Agile, AI Ethics, AI in Education, Machine Learning, Career Development, Future of Work The following music was used for this episode: Music: Ignotus by Agnese Valmaggia License (CC BY 4.0): https://filmmusic.io/standard-license Music: Synthiemania by Frank Schroeter License (CC BY 4.0): https://filmmusic.io/standard-license

✍️ Substack: If you'd rather read than listen, you can do so over on ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Substack⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠!

In this inspiring episode of the Brain Soul Success Show, Dr. Louise Swartswalter sits down with Daniel Aaron, a transformational entertainer, elite coach, and bestselling author with 30+ years of experience in personal growth and spiritual development. Daniel shares his powerful journey through grief, darkness, and awakening, and how it led him to create a life of soul-aligned success, deep service, and freedom. Through wisdom-filled stories and practical tools, Daniel invites us to look deeper into how we are, not just what we do, and how shifting our inner identity transforms our outer results. Inside this episode: - The moment of tragedy that led Daniel to a path of spiritual leadership - His "River of Causality" model and how being shapes doing - How to clear ancestral programming and emotional residue to access your soul's truth - A practical framework to transform self-talk and create sustainable change Daniel reminds us that we are not broken—we are powerful creators. And when we align our being with our purpose, miracles follow. Connect with Daniel Aaron! Free Ebook: The Art of Spiritual Leadership – 40 Laws to Transform Your Life and the World https://danielaaron.com/spiritual-leadership/ Website: https://www.danielaaron.com/ Don't forget to rate, subscribe, and review the podcast. Your support helps us bring you more high-frequency conversations that inspire deep healing and transformation.

Patrick answers challenging questions about faith, shares tips for talking to young adults about belief in God, and recommends useful books on Catholic apologetics. He also explores the curious practice of proxy baptisms in the Mormon church, especially regarding well-known Catholic figures like popes. Patrick addresses listener questions about confession, cremation, and ways to support friends interested in joining the Catholic Church. For insightful advice and real-life wisdom on living your faith, Patrick delivers content you won’t want to miss. Ellie (email) - I need to be first proven that the Christian God exists to believe in Heaven and then be comforted, but I’m unsure about his existence and therefore I’m unsure about any afterlife. (00:51) Craig - What do you do if your friend is dating someone who says that Jesus failed because he didn't get married? (13:22) Lee - How can I help someone else convert? (15:18) Audio: Will Mormons baptize the Pope after his death? (18:21) Was Jesus really nailed to the Cross? (37:27) Mary Joe - Thank you for explaining something I learned in my Theology class when I was young. You explained Causality perfectly! (39:14) Ellen (email) – Can cremation ashes be held in reserve? (41:57) Joan (email) – Patrick said you can’t commit a mortal son unless you know it’s a mortal sin when you commit it, which I assume goes for venial sin as well. Why then, at their first confession, do RCIA candidates confess their sins from the past if they weren’t aware that they were sins until going through RCIA? (47:12)

Send us a text*Agents, Causal AI & The Future of DoWhy*The idea of agentic systems taking over more complex human tasks is compelling.New "production-grade" frameworks to build agentic systems pop up, suggesting that we're close to achieving full automation of these challenging multi-step tasks.But is the underlying agentic technology itself ready for production?And if not, can LLM-based systems help us making better decisions?Recent new developments in the DoWhy/PyWhy ecosystem might bring some answers.Will they—combined with new methods for validating causal models now available in DoWhy—impact the way we build and interact with causal models in industry?------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Video version available on Youtube: https://youtu.be/8yWKQqNFrmYRecorded on Mar 12, 2025 in Bengaluru, India.------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------*About The Guest*Amit Sharma is a Principal Researcher at Microsoft Research and one of the original creators of the open-source Python library DoWhy, considered the "scikit-learn of causal inference." He holds a PhD in Computer Science from Cornell University. His research focuses on causality and its intersection with LLM-based and agentic systems. Amit deeply cares about the social impact of machine learning systems and sees causality as one of the main drivers of more useful and robust systems.Connect with Amit:- Amit on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/amitshar/- Amit on BlueSky:- Amit 's web page: http://amitsharma.in/*About The Host*Everyday AI: Your daily guide to grown with Generative AICan't keep up with AI? We've got you. Everyday AI helps you keep up and get ahead.Listen on: Apple Podcasts SpotifySupport the showCausal Bandits PodcastCausal AI || Causal Machine Learning || Causal Inference & DiscoveryWeb: https://causalbanditspodcast.comConnect on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/aleksandermolak/Join Causal Python Weekly: https://causalpython.io The Causal Book: https://amzn.to/3QhsRz4

Today on Like It Matters Radio Mr. Black is going to school his listeners on the reality of life. Choices have consequences. The book of Amos makes some statements about the Chain of Causation, the Law of Causality. Can two walk together without agreeing where to go? Does a lion roar in the forest when he has no prey? Does a young lion growl in his den if he has caught nothing? Does a bird land in a snare where no bait has been set? Does a trap spring from the ground when it has nothing to catch? If a ram’s horn sounds in a city, do the people not tremble? If calamity comes to a city, has the LORD not caused it? Amos 3:3-6. Today Mr. Black will be joined by Kelsey Pritchard with the Women Speak Out PAC. Today they will be talking about the political contest for Wisconsin Supreme Court between Liberal pro abortionist, Susan Crawford and the conservative Pro Life candidate Brad Schimel. They will discuss the National importance of this local race. But in the bigger picture Mr. Black wants to listeners to understand the Butterfly effect; That any change, changes all things. That our choices create an environment that others who follow will be constrained by! Tune in for your HOUR OF POWER as Mr. Black and guest discuss, The Butterfly Effect- Sins of the Father. Inspiration, Education and Application!! Can two walk together without agreeing where to go? Does a lion roar in the forest when he has no prey? Does a young lion growl in his den if he has caught nothing? Does a bird land in a snare where no bait has been set? Does a trap spring from the ground when it has nothing to catch? If a ram’s horn sounds in a city, do the people not tremble? If calamity comes to a city, has not the LORD caused it? Surely the Lord GOD does nothing without revealing His plan to His servants the prophets. The lion has roared—who will not fear? The Lord GOD has spoken—who will not prophesy? - Amos 3:3-8 BSBWarrior;What a litany of statements. These are all CAUSE-and-EFFECT statements, natural laws- the WAY THINGS WORK: IF ‘A’ THEN ‘B’. If you put your hand into fire, you WILL GET BURNED. God has always forewarned us, He wants to make sure that people know that CHOICES have CONSEQUENCES and God wants none to perish. The Lord is not slack concerning His promise, as some count slackness, but is longsuffering toward us, not willing that any should perish but that all should come to repentance (2 Pet 3:9) God has a plan and He has YOUR PLAN. He promises us, HE HAS THIS, we just need to have FAITH. Faith has consequences, it allows us to be all that God has intended for us to be! “For I know the plans I have for you,” declares the LORD, “plans to prosper you and not to harm you, plans to give you hope and a future. For we are God’s handiwork, created in Christ Jesus to do good works, which God prepared in advance for us to do”. (Jeremiah 29:11, Ephesians 2:10) Believing God’s WORD is called Faith! Without Faith it is impossible to please God. The Consequences of FAITH, pays huge dividends in the Kingdom of God and allows us to be used for God’s purpose NOW! Be sure to Like and Follow us on our facebook page!www.facebook.com/limradio Instagram @likeitmattersradioTwitter @likeitmatters Get daily inspiration from our blog www.wayofwarrior.blog Learn about our non profit work at www.givelikeitmatters.com Check out our training website www.LikeItMatters.Net Always available online at www.likeitmattersradio.comSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Part 2 of this series could have easily been renamed "AI for science: The expert's guide to practical machine learning.” We continue our discussion with Christoph Molnar and Timo Freiesleben to look at how scientists can apply supervised machine learning techniques from the previous episode into their research.Introduction to supervised ML for science (0:00) Welcome back to Christoph Molnar and Timo Freiesleben, co-authors of “Supervised Machine Learning for Science: How to Stop Worrying and Love Your Black Box”The model as the expert? (1:00)Evaluation metrics have profound downstream effects on all modeling decisionsData augmentation offers a simple yet powerful way to incorporate domain knowledgeDomain expertise is often undervalued in data science despite being crucialMeasuring causality: Metrics and blind spots (10:10)Causality approaches in ML range from exploring associations to inferring treatment effectsConnecting models to scientific understanding (18:00)Interpretation methods must stay within realistic data distributions to yield meaningful insightsRobustness across distribution shifts (26:40)Robustness requires understanding what distribution shifts affect your modelPre-trained models and transfer learning provide promising paths to more robust scientific MLReproducibility challenges in ML and science (35:00)Reproducibility challenges differ between traditional science and machine learningGo back to listen to part one of this series for the conceptual foundations that support these practical applications.Check out Christoph and Timo's book “Supervised Machine Learning for Science: How to Stop Worrying and Love Your Black Box” available online now.What did you think? Let us know.Do you have a question or a discussion topic for the AI Fundamentalists? Connect with them to comment on your favorite topics: LinkedIn - Episode summaries, shares of cited articles, and more. YouTube - Was it something that we said? Good. Share your favorite quotes. Visit our page - see past episodes and submit your feedback! It continues to inspire future episodes.

Send us a textA slightly different discourse this week, as we talk about 2004's movie Primer.The shoestring budget, short running time, and DIY approach to exposition make for a tougher review, but never ones to shy away from a challenge, we roll up our sleeves and… kill time by talking about women's rugby and celebrity poker games.Elsewhere, we start getting excited about the new season of Andor and get the latest roundup on films leaving Amazon Prime.You can contact us at:podcast@2ndchancecinemaclub.comWe can be found on:Instagram - @2ndchancecinemaclub

Is it valid or even permissible to attend a Mass led by an excommunicated priest or bishop? We explore this complex issue and also dive into questions on Mary's perpetual virginity, altar calls at Pentecostal services, and the meaning behind “baptism for the dead.” Join The CA Live Club Newsletter: Click Here Questions Covered: 04:55 – My wife is Pentecostal and I attend early morning Mass and then Pentecostal service with wife and children I want to know if it is ok  to go up to altar call with my wife and children?  14:53 – How to refute quantum mechanics disproving the Aristotelian proof of God and Causality  18:22 – Perpetual Vigirnity of Mary. Is it reasonable to think that St. Joseph did not know that Mary had taken a vow of Virginity?  24:30 – St. Paul, scripture, baptism for the dead, he has a theory of what it means, wants to get Joe's take…He thinks baptism for those who are dead in their sin  32:50 – Why does St. Paul go against the Council of Jerusalem when he says some Christians can eat meat sacrificed to idols?  36:25 – Can I attend a Mass that is being celebrated by an excommunicated priest or bishop?  42:41 – Mary's role as intercessor in light of Lukes passages on sword piercing her soul, and the Magnificat.  47:04 – Girlfriend died 3 years ago, he led her to Christ, wants to know if he can still pray to her, even though she may be in Purgatory, and can he ask her to pray for him  52:04 – Calling back with follow-up question, his wife does not want the kids baptized in the Catholic Church. Should he still passively participate? 

Scaling with Meta ads isn't as simple as running purchase conversion campaigns anymore and as the platform evolves, marketers need new strategies to drive true incremental growth. Many brands are ealizing that Meta's algorithm has shifted towards targeting people already in-market, making it harder to reach truly new customers at scale, leading to rising costs and diminishing returns.In this episode of Marketing Operators, we break down why optimizing solely for purchase conversions might be limiting your ability to scale. We discuss the challenge of balancing incrementality and efficiency, how holdout tests reveal the real impact of Meta spend, and why some brands are shifting towards View Content optimization to expand their reach.We also explore whether brands at different revenue stages should be experimenting with non-purchase objectives, and how top ecommerce marketers are testing new ad strategies to unlock incremental growth.If you have a question for the MOperators Hotline, click the link to be in with a chance of it being discussed on the show: https://forms.gle/1W7nKoNK5Zakm1Xv600:00 Introduction and Catch Up08:22 Navigating the Evolving Landscape of Meta Advertising18:00 Innovative Strategies for Incremental Marketing Success35:03 The Shift to Causality in Marketing Measurement38:31 Testing Creative Diversity and Optimization Strategies40:57 Incrementality Insights and Budget Allocation44:38 Understanding the Impact of New Product Launches51:32 Measuring Incrementality and Revenue Attribution01:02:19 Strategies for Smaller Brands in Paid MediaOperators Exclusive Slack: https://join.slack.com/t/9operators/shared_invite/zt-2tdfu426r-TepSHJP~evAyDfR29U2qUwPowered by:Motion.⁠⁠⁠https://motionapp.com/pricing?utm_source=marketing-operators-podcast&utm_medium=paidsponsor&utm_campaign=march-2024-ad-reads⁠⁠⁠https://motionapp.com/creative-trendsPrescient AI.⁠⁠⁠https://www.prescientai.com/operatorsRichpanel.⁠⁠⁠https://www.richpanel.com/?utm_source=MO&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=ytdescAftersell.https://www.aftersell.com/operatorsHaus.http://Haus.io/operatorsSubscribe to the 9 Operators Podcast here:https://www.youtube.com/@Operators9Sign up to the 9 Operators newsletter here: https://9operators.com/

Send us a textFrom Quantum Causal Models to Causal AI at SpotifyCiarán loved Lego.Fascinated by the endless possibilities offered by the blocks, he once asked his parents what he could do as an adult to keep building with them.The answer: engineering.As he delved deeper into engineering, Ciarán noticed that its rules relied on a deeper structure. This realization inspired him to pursue quantum physics, which eventually brought him face-to-face with fundamental questions about causality.Today, Ciarán blends his deep understanding of physics and quantum causal models with applied work at Spotify, solving complex problems in innovative ways.Recently, while collaborating with one of his students, he stumbled upon a new interesting question: could we learn something about the early history of the universe by applying causal inference methods in astrophysics?Could we? Hear it from Ciarán himself.Join us for this one-of-a-kind conversation!------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Video version and episode links available on YouTubeRecorded on Nov 6, 2024 in Dublin, Ireland.------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------About The GuestCiarán Gilligan-Lee is Head of the Causal Inference Research Lab at Spotify and Honorary Associate Professor at University College London. He got interested in causality during his studies in quantum physics. This interest led him to study quantum causal models. He published in Nature Machine Intelligence, Nature Quantum Information, Physical Review Letters, New Journal of Physics and more. In his free time, he writes for New Scientist and helps his students apply causal methods in new fields (e.g., astrophysics).Connect with Ciarán:- Ciarán on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ciaran-gilligan-lee/- Ciarán's web page: https://www.ciarangilliganlee.com/About The HostAleksander (Alex) Molak is an independent machine learning researcher, educator, entreSupport the showCausal Bandits PodcastCausal AI || Causal Machine Learning || Causal Inference & DiscoveryWeb: https://causalbanditspodcast.comConnect on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/aleksandermolak/Join Causal Python Weekly: https://causalpython.io The Causal Book: https://amzn.to/3QhsRz4

Choices and Consequences, the Alpha and Omega; The Cause and effect! Do you ever wonder how we got to where we are in our country today? The pandemic of poor mental health. 40-60% of college graduates are not prepared for the workforce. People can’t eat with someone who votes differently. People killing and maiming unknown people just to hurt people. Americans are having fewer kids, if they have any at all. Men are struggling starting families, getting homes and choosing to just checking out. 60% of our population has chronic disease, where 50 years ago it was 6%. It is time to go back to the basics. We can fix this dilemma by remembering how things work, and what is important. The Law of Causality and the Chain of Causation is science. If you plant wheat, the only thing that will grow- if anything grows, is wheat! From our choices come consequences. The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. Today’s listeners will be reminded of everything they needed to know they learned in kindergarten and be introduced to “Wrong Way Riegels”. The time is NOW to be inspired to choose differently! The Time is Now for Like It Matters Radio. Radio that is Inspiration, Education and Application! Be sure to Like and Follow us on our facebook page!www.facebook.com/limradio Instagram @likeitmattersradioTwitter @likeitmatters Get daily inspiration from our blog www.wayofwarrior.blog Learn about our non profit work at www.givelikeitmatters.com Check out our training website www.LikeItMatters.Net Always available online at www.likeitmattersradio.comSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Send us a textStefan Feuerriegel is the Head of the Institute of AI in Management at LMU.His team consistently publishes work on causal machine learning at top AI conferences, including NeurIPS, ICML, and more.At the same time, they help businesses implement causal methods in practice.They worked on projects with companies like ABB Hitachi, and Booking.com.Stefan believes his team thrives because of its diversity and aims to bring more causal machine learning to medicine.I had a great conversation with him, and I hope you'll enjoy it too!>> Guest info:Stefan Feuerriegel is a professor and the Head of the Institute of AI in Management at LMU. Previously, he worked as a consultant at McKinsey & Co. and ran his own AI startup.>> Episode Links:Papers- Feuerriegel, S. et al. (2024) - Causal machine learning for predicting treatment outcomes (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-024-02902-1)- Kuzmanivic, M. et al. (2024) - Causal Machine Learning for Cost-Effective Allocation of Development Aid (https://arxiv.org/abs/2401.16986)- Schröder, M. et al. (2024) - Conformal Prediction for Causal Effects of Continuous Treatments (https://arxiv.org/abs/2407.03094)>> WWW: https://www.som.lmu.de/ai/>> LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/stefan-feuerriegel/Support the showCausal Bandits PodcastCausal AI || Causal Machine Learning || Causal Inference & DiscoveryWeb: https://causalbanditspodcast.comConnect on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/aleksandermolak/Join Causal Python Weekly: https://causalpython.io The Causal Book: https://amzn.to/3QhsRz4

The Gauḍīya Vaiṣṇavas ultimately bring the point that the soul is an agent. In fact, the āśrute in the Vedānta-sūtra says that if he's not an agent, if the soul, if we aren't agents for our own improvement and change, then there's no purpose to all the śāstra, because, after all, who's it talking to when it says you can improve if you do this, this, and that? There are all these instructions saying, 'Do this, not that.' And who does that relate to? Who is it speaking to then? And unless you can improve, then the śāstra has no meaning, and the śāstra does have meaning. It's axiomatic truth; it's self-effulgent, therefore you can change. So we may be confronted with destiny or apparent fate, but it doesn't mean that even in that moment, there isn't something we can do about it because we can always respond in that moment to the degree that we have some freedom. Freedom comes from having some knowledge—the difference between my body and myself—and that there is a proper way to act. Some people don't have that at all, so they're in abject ignorance. Caitanya Mahāprabhu said, 'māyā-mugdha jīvera nāhi svataḥ kṛṣṇa-jñāna' (CC Adi 20.122), that people don't automatically come out of ignorance; therefore, there has to be some intervention. That's why he goes on to say, Caitanya Mahāprabhu, that that's why we distribute knowledge. Why do you think we distribute Bhagavad Gītā in large quantities just for entertainment, because we have nothing better to do in the last three months of the year? No, because when a soul comes in contact with spiritual knowledge, he or she can read it and then say, 'Aha, now I can do something different.' (excerpt from the talk) Link to the entire talk: https://youtu.be/fXRVOF0RDzQ ------------------------------------------------------------ To connect with His Grace Vaiśeṣika Dāsa, please visit https://www.fanthespark.com/next-steps/ask-vaisesika-dasa/ ------------------------------------------------------------ Add to your wisdom literature collection: https://iskconsv.com/book-store/ https://www.bbtacademic.com/books/ https://thefourquestionsbook.com/ ------------------------------------------------------------ Join us live on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/FanTheSpark/ Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/sound-bhakti/id1132423868 For the latest videos, subscribe https://www.youtube.com/@FanTheSpark For the latest in SoundCloud: https://soundcloud.com/fan-the-spark ------------------------------------------------------------ #vaisesikaprabhu #vaisesikadasa #vaisesikaprabhulectures #spirituality #bhaktiyoga #krishna #spiritualpurposeoflife #krishnaspirituality #spiritualusachannel #whybhaktiisimportant #whyspiritualityisimportant #vaisesika #spiritualconnection #thepowerofspiritualstudy #selfrealization #spirituallectures #spiritualstudy #spiritualexperience #spiritualpurposeoflife #spiritualquestions #spiritualquestionsanswered #trendingspiritualtopics #fanthespark #spiritualpowerofmeditation #spiritualgrowthlessons #secretsofspirituality #spiritualteachersonyoutube #spiritualhabits #spiritualclarity #bhagavadgita #srimadbhagavatam #spiritualbeings #kttvg #keepthetranscendentalvibrationgoing #spiritualpurpose

In today's episode, Greg and Patrick talk about instrumental variables: what they are, how they help to make causal claims, and the many assumptions and challenges associated with them. Along the way they also mention: Festival of Side Dishes, pilot turkeys, gutsy bagpipes, charter schools, drama kids, RCT wieners, Space Force, licking a rainbow, Duranimals, draft lotteries, shoelace color, buttress, mother-in-lawing, and kazoo duets. Stay in contact with Quantitude! Web page: quantitudepod.org TwitterX: @quantitudepod YouTube: @quantitudepod Merch: redbubble.com

Do language models understand the causal structure of the world, or do they merely note correlations? And what happens when you build a big AI society out of them? In this brief episode, recorded at the Bay Area Alignment Workshop, I chat with Zhijing Jin about her research on these questions. Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/axrpodcast Ko-fi: https://ko-fi.com/axrpodcast The transcript: https://axrp.net/episode/2024/11/14/episode-38_0-zhijing-jin-llms-causality-multi-agent-systems.html FAR.AI: https://far.ai/ FAR.AI on X (aka Twitter): https://x.com/farairesearch FAR.AI on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@FARAIResearch The Alignment Workshop: https://www.alignment-workshop.com/   Topics we discuss, and timestamps: 00:35 - How the Alignment Workshop is 00:47 - How Zhijing got interested in causality and natural language processing 03:14 - Causality and alignment 06:21 - Causality without randomness 10:07 - Causal abstraction 11:42 - Why LLM causal reasoning? 13:20 - Understanding LLM causal reasoning 16:33 - Multi-agent systems   Links: Zhijing's website: https://zhijing-jin.com/fantasy/ Zhijing on X (aka Twitter): https://x.com/zhijingjin Can Large Language Models Infer Causation from Correlation?: https://arxiv.org/abs/2306.05836 Cooperate or Collapse: Emergence of Sustainable Cooperation in a Society of LLM Agents: https://arxiv.org/abs/2404.16698   Episode art by Hamish Doodles: hamishdoodles.com

More than 50% of employees don't feel heard at work. This disconnect can cost companies more than just morale—it's affecting productivity, retention, and ultimately, profits. If your company is still relying on surveys and feedback forms as your main tools for "listening" to employees, it might be time to rethink your approach. In this episode of the M&A Science Podcast, Ashish Kothari and Dr. Angela Jackson, Founder of Future Forward Strategies and Author, dig into the Win-Win Workplace Framework, a paradigm-shifting strategy that uses employee voices to drive organizational success.Dr. Angela Jackson is a professor at Harvard University and an expert in organizational development and employee engagement, with a focus on creating thriving workplaces where employees drive bottom-line success. With over five years of research and interviews with 1,200 companies, Dr. Jackson has developed the Win-Win Workplace Framework, which helps organizations operationalize employee voice and reimagine workplace culture. She is also the author of the upcoming book The Win-Win Workplace: How Thriving Employees Drive Bottom Line Success.If you're serious about lowering turnover and creating a thriving workplace, don't miss this episode!Things you will learn in this episode:• How investing in employees is generating more revenue• The Win-Win Workplace Framework and its nine practices• The importance of your employees' voice• Changing the traditional parent-child dynamic in the workplace to a peer-to-peer relationship• Barriers to creating a win-win workplaceResources: ✅• Dr. Angela Jackson website: https://www.drangelajackson.com/ • Future Forward Strategies: https://www.futureforwardstrategies.com/about#:~:text=Our%20Founder%20and%20CEO,initiatives%20that%20create%20career%20pathways.• Also mentioned in this episode:• What Got You Here Won't Get You There book by Marshall Goldsmith https://www.amazon.com/What-Got-Here-Wont-There/dp/1401301304 • A Layman's Guide to Separating Causation from Correlation … and Noticing When Claims of Causality are Invalid https://alexedmans.com/correlation/ • Alex Edmans episode at HAPPINESS SQUAD: https://happinesssquad.com/captivate-podcast/the-power-of-purpose-driven-organizations-with-alex-edmans/ • Positively Making Organizations and the World Better by Kim Cameron https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/1548051821997414?icid=int.sj-abstract.similar-articles.8 Books:✅• The Win-Win Workplace: How Thriving Employees Drive Bottom-Line Success https://www.amazon.com/Win-Win-Workplace-Thriving-Employees-Bottom-Line/dp/B0D6V6B4TN • Hardwired for Happiness: 9 Proven Practices to Overcome Stress and Live Your Best Life

I speak with author, lecturer, and narrator, Mitch Horowitz about the origins of the New Thought movement, why it is so important to realize the connection between thought and manifestation, and the techniques that one can utilize to move towards and achieve one's goals. Mitch Horowitz: https://mitchhorowitz.com Mitch's YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCrh57VATxMZhMLz36ztIokg To support The Melt just visit our Locals page at https://themeltpodcast.locals.com/ or our Patreon page at https://www.patreon.com/themeltpodcast where you can subscribe for as little as $5 a month to receive extended episodes, exclusive episodes, and early access to regular episodes. For one time donations- PayPal: fosamsara@gmail.com   Find The Melt on… Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/c-2365404 YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@TheMeltPodcast Check out our merch at: https://the-melt.creator-spring.com/   Music by The Godawful Joy: https://thegodawfuljoy.bandcamp.com/releases and Matt Presti: https://www.mattpresti.com/music.html  

We'd love to hear from you! Send us a text message.In this episode of Discover Daily, hosts Alex and Sienna explore the frontiers of science and technology, from the lingering dangers of World War II bombs to the groundbreaking mapping of a fruit fly's brain. The episode kicks off with a startling incident at Miyazaki Airport in Japan, where a 500-pound U.S. bomb from World War II unexpectedly detonated, creating a large crater and disrupting flights. This event highlights the ongoing challenges Japan faces in dealing with unexploded ordnance, even decades after the war's end.Next, the hosts dive into a monumental achievement in neuroscience - the creation of the first complete map of an adult fruit fly brain. This comprehensive "connectome" reveals the intricate connections between nearly 140,000 neurons and offers unprecedented insights into complex brain function. While fruit flies may seem an unlikely subject, their genetic similarities to humans make them invaluable models for studying neurological disorders and developing targeted therapies.The episode concludes with a mind-boggling discovery in quantum physics that challenges our understanding of time itself. Scientists have found evidence that under certain conditions, photons can seemingly spend a "negative amount of time" passing through a cloud of ultracold atoms. This counterintuitive phenomenon, which appears to show light exiting a material before fully entering it, sheds new light on the bizarre world of quantum mechanics and the fundamental nature of time. Join Alex and Sienna as they unravel these fascinating stories and explore their profound implications for our understanding of the universe.From Perplexity's Discover Feed: https://www.perplexity.ai/page/evidence-of-negative-time-Ut987S07Rl2p3ryWJL_PigPerplexity is the fastest and most powerful way to search the web. Perplexity crawls the web and curates the most relevant and up-to-date sources (from academic papers to Reddit threads) to create the perfect response to any question or topic you're interested in. Take the world's knowledge with you anywhere. Available on iOS and Android Join our growing Discord community for the latest updates and exclusive content. Follow us on: Instagram Threads X (Twitter) YouTube Linkedin

******Support the channel****** Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/thedissenter PayPal: paypal.me/thedissenter PayPal Subscription 1 Dollar: https://tinyurl.com/yb3acuuy PayPal Subscription 3 Dollars: https://tinyurl.com/ybn6bg9l PayPal Subscription 5 Dollars: https://tinyurl.com/ycmr9gpz PayPal Subscription 10 Dollars: https://tinyurl.com/y9r3fc9m PayPal Subscription 20 Dollars: https://tinyurl.com/y95uvkao   ******Follow me on****** Website: https://www.thedissenter.net/ The Dissenter Goodreads list: https://shorturl.at/7BMoB Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/thedissenteryt/ Twitter: https://twitter.com/TheDissenterYT   This show is sponsored by Enlites, Learning & Development done differently. Check the website here: http://enlites.com/   Dr. Tobias Gerstenberg is an Assistant Professor of Psychology at Stanford University, where he leads the Causality in Cognition Lab (CICL). Dr. Gerstenberg's research is highly interdisciplinary. It combines ideas from philosophy, linguistics, computer science, and the legal sciences to better understand higher-level cognitive phenomena such as causal inference and moral judgment.   In this episode, we talk about causal cognition. We first discuss what it is, and what it means to attribute causality. We talk about counterfactual thinking, intuitive ideas about causality, causation by omission, and how people single out “the” cause. We also talk about causal learning in continuous-time settings, and then get into how causal cognition connects to attributions of moral responsibility, and how people deal with knowledgeable versus ignorant agents, and the role that intentions play. Finally, we discuss the relationship between intuitive physics and intuitive psychology, and moral judgment. -- A HUGE THANK YOU TO MY PATRONS/SUPPORTERS: PER HELGE LARSEN, JERRY MULLER, BERNARDO SEIXAS, ADAM KESSEL, MATTHEW WHITINGBIRD, ARNAUD WOLFF, TIM HOLLOSY, HENRIK AHLENIUS, FILIP FORS CONNOLLY, DAN DEMETRIOU, ROBERT WINDHAGER, RUI INACIO, ZOOP, MARCO NEVES, COLIN HOLBROOK, PHIL KAVANAGH, SAMUEL ANDREEFF, FRANCIS FORDE, TIAGO NUNES, FERGAL CUSSEN, HAL HERZOG, NUNO MACHADO, JONATHAN LEIBRANT, JOÃO LINHARES, STANTON T, SAMUEL CORREA, ERIK HAINES, MARK SMITH, JOÃO EIRA, TOM HUMMEL, SARDUS FRANCE, DAVID SLOAN WILSON, YACILA DEZA-ARAUJO, ROMAIN ROCH, DIEGO LONDOÑO CORREA, YANICK PUNTER, CHARLOTTE BLEASE, NICOLE BARBARO, ADAM HUNT, PAWEL OSTASZEWSKI, NELLEKE BAK, GUY MADISON, GARY G HELLMANN, SAIMA AFZAL, ADRIAN JAEGGI, PAULO TOLENTINO, JOÃO BARBOSA, JULIAN PRICE, EDWARD HALL, HEDIN BRØNNER, DOUGLAS FRY, FRANCA BORTOLOTTI, GABRIEL PONS CORTÈS, URSULA LITZCKE, SCOTT, ZACHARY FISH, TIM DUFFY, SUNNY SMITH, JON WISMAN, WILLIAM BUCKNER, PAUL-GEORGE ARNAUD, LUKE GLOWACKI, GEORGIOS THEOPHANOUS, CHRIS WILLIAMSON, PETER WOLOSZYN, DAVID WILLIAMS, DIOGO COSTA, ALEX CHAU, AMAURI MARTÍNEZ, CORALIE CHEVALLIER, BANGALORE ATHEISTS, LARRY D. LEE JR., OLD HERRINGBONE, MICHAEL BAILEY, DAN SPERBER, ROBERT GRESSIS, IGOR N, JEFF MCMAHAN, JAKE ZUEHL, BARNABAS RADICS, MARK CAMPBELL, TOMAS DAUBNER, LUKE NISSEN, KIMBERLY JOHNSON, JESSICA NOWICKI, LINDA BRANDIN, NIKLAS CARLSSON, GEORGE CHORIATIS, VALENTIN STEINMANN, PER KRAULIS, ALEXANDER HUBBARD, BR, MASOUD ALIMOHAMMADI, JONAS HERTNER, URSULA GOODENOUGH, DAVID PINSOF, SEAN NELSON, MIKE LAVIGNE, JOS KNECHT, ERIK ENGMAN, LUCY, MANVIR SINGH, PETRA WEIMANN, CAROLA FEEST, STARRY, MAURO JÚNIOR, 航 豊川, TONY BARRETT, BENJAMIN GELBART, AND NIKOLAI VISHNEVSKY! A SPECIAL THANKS TO MY PRODUCERS, YZAR WEHBE, JIM FRANK, ŁUKASZ STAFINIAK, TOM VANEGDOM, BERNARD HUGUENEY, CURTIS DIXON, BENEDIKT MUELLER, THOMAS TRUMBLE, KATHRINE AND PATRICK TOBIN, JONCARLO MONTENEGRO, AL NICK ORTIZ, NICK GOLDEN, AND CHRISTINE GLASS! AND TO MY EXECUTIVE PRODUCERS, MATTHEW LAVENDER, SERGIU CODREANU, BOGDAN KANIVETS, ROSEY, AND GREGORY HASTINGS!

Could something in the future alter the past, so that effect came before cause? Does quantum mechanics truly allow this, as often hinted?If you love card games, definitely check out Doomlings. Click here and use code ISAAC20 to get 20% off of your copy of Doomlings! https://bit.ly/IsaacDoomlingsJoin this channel to get access to perks:https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCZFipeZtQM5CKUjx6grh54g/joinVisit our Website: http://www.isaacarthur.netJoin Nebula: https://go.nebula.tv/isaacarthurSupport us on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/IsaacArthurSupport us on Subscribestar: https://www.subscribestar.com/isaac-arthurFacebook Group: https://www.facebook.com/groups/1583992725237264/Reddit: https://www.reddit.com/r/IsaacArthur/Twitter: https://twitter.com/Isaac_A_Arthur on Twitter and RT our future content.SFIA Discord Server: https://discord.gg/53GAShECredits:Retrocausality: Cause After EffectEpisode 461a; August 25, 2024Produced, Written & Narrated by: Isaac ArthurSelect imagery/video supplied by Getty ImagesMusic Courtesy of Epidemic Sound http://epidemicsound.com/creatorSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Could something in the future alter the past, so that effect came before cause? Does quantum mechanics truly allow this, as often hinted?If you love card games, definitely check out Doomlings. Click here and use code ISAAC20 to get 20% off of your copy of Doomlings! https://bit.ly/IsaacDoomlingsJoin this channel to get access to perks:https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCZFipeZtQM5CKUjx6grh54g/joinVisit our Website: http://www.isaacarthur.netJoin Nebula: https://go.nebula.tv/isaacarthurSupport us on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/IsaacArthurSupport us on Subscribestar: https://www.subscribestar.com/isaac-arthurFacebook Group: https://www.facebook.com/groups/1583992725237264/Reddit: https://www.reddit.com/r/IsaacArthur/Twitter: https://twitter.com/Isaac_A_Arthur on Twitter and RT our future content.SFIA Discord Server: https://discord.gg/53GAShECredits:Retrocausality: Cause After EffectEpisode 461a; August 25, 2024Produced, Written & Narrated by: Isaac ArthurSelect imagery/video supplied by Getty ImagesMusic Courtesy of Epidemic Sound http://epidemicsound.com/creatorSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

About this episode: When evaluating programs, policies, and interventions, how do you know if they're working? In today's episode: The science (and art!) of biostatistics, and an exploration of the question: How can we design studies to find out if there really is a relationship between A and B? Guest: Elizabeth Stuart is the chair of the department of Biostatistics at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. Host: Dr. Josh Sharfstein is vice dean for public health practice and community engagement at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, a faculty member in health policy, a pediatrician, and former secretary of Maryland's Health Department. Show links and related content: Better Debates, Better Decisions: Causality Assessment in Population Health—The Milbank Quarterly Contact us: Have a question about something you heard? Looking for a transcript? Want to suggest a topic or guest? Contact us via email or visit our website. Follow us: @‌PublicHealthPod on X @‌JohnsHopkinsSPH on Instagram @‌JohnsHopkinsSPH on Facebook @‌PublicHealthOnCall on YouTube Here's our RSS feed

Today's guest is Max Rempel, Molecular Biologist and PHD.  Open Loops has a PhD on the show?!?! It wouldn't be the first time a true academic and practitioner came on the show....it's more that after 280 episodes of shamelessly fringe madness, Greg's just shocked he can get one back!  Max must've never listened to it.That said, don't let the title fool you. Dr. Rempel sees through the matrix, he's explored the depths of consciousness, had experiences that contradict empirical material understanding of reality, and most importantly...he thinks he might be able to prove that aliens interfered with your DNA.  That Junk (DNA) in your Trunk (you) is untapped knowledge that may explain the very fabric of our universe, our untapped abilities, and reveal hidden knowledge about our place in the universe.  Are you carrying extraterrestrial signatures in your genes? Want to learn how you can find out?Max tells all in this mind-bendingly explosive conversation that'll Schumann resonate for skeptics and believers alike!  Max's Links: xg1.orgdnaresonance.orgmaxrempel.comhumancolony.org Let Greg know how you like the show. Write your review, soliloquy, Haiku or whatever twisted thoughts you want to share at https://ratethispodcast.com/openloops

In the realm of nutrition science and health, understanding the intricate relationship between various factors and health outcomes is crucial yet challenging. How do we determine whether a specific nutrient genuinely impacts our health, or if the observed effects are merely coincidental? This intriguing question brings us to the core concepts of correlation and causation. You've likely heard the adage “correlation is not causation,” but what does this truly mean in the context of scientific research and public health recommendations? Can a strong association between two variables ever imply a causal relationship, or is it always just a statistical coincidence? These questions are not merely academic; they are pivotal in shaping the guidelines that influence our daily lives. For instance, when studies reveal a link between high sodium intake and hypertension, how do scientists distinguish between a mere correlation and a true causal relationship? Similarly, the debate around LDL cholesterol and cardiovascular disease hinges on understanding whether high cholesterol levels directly cause heart disease, or if other confounding factors are at play. Unraveling these complexities requires a deep dive into the standards of proof and the different models used to assess causality in scientific research. As we delve into these topics, we'll explore how public health recommendations are formed despite the inherent challenges in proving causality. What methods do scientists use to ensure that their findings are robust and reliable? How do they account for the myriad of confounding variables that can skew results? By understanding the nuances of these processes, we can better appreciate the rigorous scientific effort that underpins dietary guidelines and health advisories. Join us on this exploration of correlation, causation, and the standards of proof in nutrition science. Through real-world examples and critical discussions, we will illuminate the pathways from observational studies to actionable health recommendations. Are you ready to uncover the mechanisms that bridge the gap between scientific evidence and practical health advice? Let's dive in and discover the fascinating dynamics at play. Timestamps: 01:32 Understanding Correlation and Causation 03:54 Historical Perspectives on Causality 06:33 Causal Models in Health Sciences 14:53 Probabilistic vs. Deterministic Causation 30:52 Standards of Proof in Public Health 36:44 Applying Causal Models in Nutrition Science 58:54 Key Ideas Segment (Premium-only) Links: Enroll in the next cohort of our Applied Nutrition Literacy course Go to episode page Subscribe to Sigma Nutrition Premium Receive our free weekly email: the Sigma Synopsis Related episode: 343 – Understanding Causality in Nutrition Science