Podcasts about dairy export council

The next decade of global dairy growth may look very different from the last one. For years, much of the world's additional milk came from pasture-based systems. New Zealand added acres. Production expanded across parts of South America, Australia and Europe. But those regions are not growing the way they once did. Today, the next unit of milk is increasingly coming from grain-fed systems. That shift could put the U.S. in the driver's seat for global dairy markets over the next 5 to 10 years. In this episode of The Milk Check, host Ted Jacoby III and the Jacoby team are joined by Scott Briggs of Bridgecape Commodities. We dive into: Why marginal milk growth is shifting from grass-fed to grain-fed systems What environmental policy and structural inefficiencies mean for European milk production Why China is shifting from building milk supply to creating higher-value dairy products Why the U.S. will need to become a more consistent exporter of butterfat Plus, beef income has helped support dairy farm margins and encouraged producers to breed more cows to beef. What happens if beef prices fall? The cows are ready. The plants are being built. What's next for U.S. dairy? Listen to The Milk Check episode 102: Who Wins the Next Decade of Milk Production? Also available on Amazon Music, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and YouTube. Got questions? We'd love to hear them. Submit below, and we might answer it on the show. Ask The Milk Check Intro commercial [Text not included.] Ted Jacoby III: Coming up on the Milk Check. Ted Jacoby III: You’ve got the U.S. dairy industry now in a position where even the worst-case scenario continues to be a threat for Europe or the rest of the world from a milk supply standpoint. Ted Jacoby III: Welcome to the Milk Check from T.C. Jacoby & Co., your complete guide to dairy markets, from the milking parlor to the supermarket shelf. I’m Ted Jacoby. Let’s dive in. This week, we are excited to have Scott Briggs from Bridgecape Commodities joining us. Scott lives in Australia and really understands what’s going on with dairy markets on that side of the pond. Scott, thank you so much for joining us. We’re excited to have you. Why don’t we start by having you tell everybody a little bit about yourself? Scott Briggs: Thanks very much for the intro, Ted. I’m Scott Briggs, Bridgecape Commodities, based down in Melbourne, Australia and work with a number of Asian and Oceanic consumers to try and understand global dairy markets and try and help them risk manage. Thanks very much for the opportunity to be a part of the podcast. Ted Jacoby III: Scott, thanks for joining us. We’re really excited to have you. We’re gonna have a little bit of a debate: How do U.S. dairy production costs compare to those in New Zealand, Europe, and China today? Do we think the U.S. is building a lasting competitive advantage? And what does that mean for the global dairy market over the next five years? Scott, I’ll start with you. You’re based down under. Do you think the U.S. Is developing a competitive advantage, or do you think New Zealand will continue to be in the driver’s seat? Scott Briggs: It’s a very big topic Ted, but I think the short answer is that yeah, the U.S. is really in a great position to drive global dairy markets over the next 5 to 10 years. One of the major things that’s changed probably since about 2015, we’ve been in a transition period where the marginal milk growth is not coming from a grass-fed system anymore, it’s coming from a grain-fed system. Between 2000 when a lot of global dairy markets started to deregulate and we had falling trade controls and those sorts of things, quotas in the EU eventually coming off, between 2000 and 2015, the marginal milk growth was really coming from a grass-fed system, be it New Zealand growing the number of acres that it planted or the number of acres that it farmed. Places like Uruguay or southern Brazil or Argentina growing quite strongly and other parts of Europe and Australia as well. So that was the driver of the growth, and that’s why we saw that volatility in global dairy markets driving back towards a grass-fed cost of production. But since then, those places have stopped growing and really the next unit of growth or the next liter of growth comes from grains and ultimately that does mean that the U.S. is in a great position to respond to the milk production needs of the world. At the end of the day, you’ve got the greatest exportable surplus of grains and you’ve got a fantastic platform to grow from. That’s the 10,000-foot view of why the U.S. is in the box seat. Ted Jacoby III: You mentioned that even New Zealand is starting to go towards a grain-based system. Could you tell me a little bit more about that? Scott Briggs: I would say that’s pretty incipient, Ted, but there’s certainly steps that are being taken in New Zealand that seem to mirror what Australia’s been doing for probably the last five to 10 years. You have a marginal cost of production that is grain-fed and it’s being led by the U.S. At the moment, if we looked at the margins in the U.S. for a dairy farmer, they’re pretty good given your beef situation. But if you were to remove that beef situation or that beef revenue, you’re probably at a pretty low income over feed cost. But that’s still a highly profitable milk price for a grass-fed system. And a lot of the fixed costs are already being paid off, be it the farmer’s labor the equipment on the farm all of those overheads, they’re already being paid off by a pasture fed system. So, there’s a huge marginal return for that extra liter of milk that comes out of a pasture fed system. If you look at the steps that have occurred in Australia and that are probably starting to come to New Zealand, it is a lot more shared housing in wetter areas, feed pads, dry feed pads. It's certainly not moving to the barn fed system that the States has got. More multiple calvers, if you like, to flatten out that milk curve. A lot more maize silage production, which just stores that little bit better and gives you more dry matter per acre as well. It’s these kind of marginal steps which have occurred a lot in Australia or even in some of our more grass-fed areas, and that are starting to occur in New Zealand. And some of the incentives that are being given, market-wise, in New Zealand to produce that shoulder milk or that additional milk are starting to respond with additional investment on farm. Ted Jacoby III: So, is maybe another way to put it that core pasture-based part of New Zealand dairy farming continues to be very profitable, but any marginal increase in milk production that would come from New Zealand, the cost of that marginal increase is probably the same or more likely probably less than the same marginal increase in milk production in the U.S.? Scott Briggs: Look, I would say that the marginal cost of production out of the States is pretty good. If you think that you’ve already got all the infrastructure paid for and it’s really just an additional growth there. But I think it’s more so the profit margins that sit in a pasture-fed system in New Zealand allow for that investment to try and get that little bit of extra milk as well. So, I wouldn’t say either or are better placed. It’s just that we do have a lot of low-hanging fruit in Oceania, if you like, to start moving into that kind of system. Ted Jacoby III: That makes sense. That makes sense. Mike Brown (2): One thing I think about New Zealand and why the system is the way it has been historically has been your cost of concentrates or grains hasn’t always been as competitive. You lead world price in a lot of cases, and your location makes you very competitive. Your dairymen have more room to pay some of those higher costs for that marginal production. So my question is the strong world price has a fair amount to do, obviously , with everybody’s growth, but in your case when you look at that difference in marginal cost versus that pasture based cost, are you more sensitive to that marginal change in price than maybe some other markets just simply because your feed costs are higher? Scott Briggs: Let’s have a look at world milk prices at the moment. The U.S. at $17 a counterweight, if you like, $16.50, $17 a counterweight. That’s low on your range. On the New Zealand numbers, that’s coming out at a $9.50 dollars per kilo in New Zealand dollars, which is a historically pretty high milk price. So, they do have that ability to just bring in PKE exports. One of the major sources of additional feed or additional milk growth in New Zealand is this palm kernel expeller which comes off of the palm kernel crushing. It’s kinda like soybean meal, if you like that they bring in from Indonesia and other palm kernel or palm crushing countries. Fonterra had placed limits on that for a long period of time because it was affecting the fat composition of the milk. Once they removed those limits, PKE imports went up 20% or 30% almost in one or two years. The last two seasons, New Zealand milk growth has been about 4% or 5% this year, and probably 2% or 3% the year before, so 6 or 7%. Nearly a third to a half of that has come from the additional energy that’s coming in the PKE. So it’s having a huge marginal impact on their growth, and it’s coming at a pretty low cost ’cause it’s a low-cost feed source. So, I think, Mike, going back to your question, they have that ability to grow because there’s such a lot of low-hanging fruit between that grass-fed cost of production, which is already paying for their farm, and the milk price that they’re getting paid, which is actually a marginal cost of production out of the U.S. Mike Brown (2): What kind of world fat price might change their incentive on PKE? We’re seeing a little bit of that here because it’s very expensive here, and people look at their marginal return. It isn’t, of course, near what it was when fat was $2.50. Do you think, depending where that world market settles, will that change the incentive to use PKE? ‘Cause in our case, it’s fat production is the real gain that you get compared to other alternative rations we feed. Scott Briggs: I think it’s seen more as just a bulk source of feed and source of energy- to get the cow up early in the season, Mike, and peak it as high as possible, and then to keep going on the shoulder. It’s a milk solids game rather than a tweak the fat percentage game. At $9.50 they’ll be feeding it. Mike Brown (2): Yes. Scott Briggs: $9.50 a kilo of milk solids they’ll be feeding it. Mike Brown (2): Oh, yes. Yeah. I would be feeding it here, too. Yeah. At that price for sure. Yeah. Ted Jacoby III: My thoughts immediately go to Europe. The U.S. is well-positioned for growth. New Zealand is building off a very profitable base, which insulates them and puts them in a very good position of at least maintaining their position in the global market. Where does that put Europe? Scott Briggs: Europe is an interesting situation where realistically I think that they’re gonna struggle for the main drivers of additional milk production. They seem to be struggling to add any additional land at a reasonable cost, whether it be to the feed base or to the dairy base. That’s obviously being driven by environmental policy, which is very different in Europe than it is say in the U.S. or even Latin America. So I think that they’re gonna struggle at that policy level to be able to keep driving forward. The other thing that does sit within Europe is that we’re only 10 years removed from quota coming off, and so we’re still in that process of losing milk production where we should in the more marginal areas, or from the smaller farms, or from the more marginal land, and trying to drive it into places like Germany or the Netherlands. And so whenever you’ve got a core base of pretty uneconomic sticky milk, it takes a fairly heavy price response to drive change in those farms. So down at the lowish milk prices that we’ve got globally at the moment and I say, I’m happy to debate that point. I think we’re at pretty low milk prices on the range since the end of COVID, particularly with the low feed prices. Where we are at the bottom of the price range, you’re gonna still struggle to get some of these European guys out given the subsidies that they’ve got. But that also means you’re not driving efficiency back into the system. So it feels to me like Europe’s gonna really struggle to meet the global needs and be a quick mover like the States has been. Probably the call-out on that one to me would be Russia. They’ve got probably huge settings if they wanted Russia and the Stans to really grow into dairy production. But it’s not gonna be something that’s being done for the rest of the world. I think it’s gonna be getting done for their part of the world and for China. Ted Jacoby III: Speaking of Eastern Europe, do you think Poland still has a lot of room to grow as well? Scott Briggs: I wouldn’t know the specific micro settings of Poland. It does seem like they are growing pretty well. If you look at the investments that are going into some of the Stans, eventually Ukraine and some of the other parts of the former Eastern Bloc, if you like, it does seem like there’s a lot of investment in Belarus still. It does seem like there’s a lot of investment going in there to help feed parts of the world that longer-term probably aren’t gonna be getting fed by the U.S. Ted Jacoby III: That makes sense to me. With all these different factors, what about China? China’s in a pretty interesting spot from a milk production standpoint. They really increased their milk production three or four years ago, and then more or less stabilized it. Where is their cost of production and where does China go from here? Scott Briggs: Probably the first point to make is that we’ve all learned not to bet against China on dairy production in the last four or five years on milk production in particular. That’s been an incredible rise. And I think the second thing is that lesson to me is then, don’t bet against them and what they might be able to do with the quality of the product, and the investments that they’re making in manufacturing capacity now. There’s a huge push from China to value add, particularly on the protein side, and to then try and drive that down in sales into Southeast Asia and other parts of the world. They’ve obviously got a huge domestic market, but when it comes to starting to grow into things like processed cheese or fat exports or even micellar casein exports and MPC exports, that’s where I think that their next push is gonna be, is trying to move out anything that they don’t need domestically. So it’s not just gonna be bulk whole milk powder, which has been the story of the last two or three years. The structural issue that they’ve got is that their population versus their arable land is just huge. That’s a long-term limiter, if you like, for how much you can push into exports. Ultimately, as their productivity grows and their incomes grow, they’ll be consuming more dairy themselves. The steps that we’ve seen the last four or five years were really about shoring up domestic milk capability so that they weren’t a victim of world markets, and then now they’re trying to value add that milk. They’ve learned the lesson that you don’t grow milk but not grow factories, and they’ve learned the lesson that you don’t grow demand without growing milk. The policy now is, let’s do step changes as productivity rises to drive income rises. I think that they’re gonna be putting a push on certain functional products into Asia But I don’t think that they’re necessarily in a place to be the driver of global milk production because ultimately their cost of production, going back to where you started, Ted, is higher, and it’s structurally higher because of the fact that they just don’t have enough arable land for the population that they’ve got. Ted Jacoby III: But with China doing that and really trying to expand into value add and even trying to export, I gotta believe that’s causing Fonterra and the other New Zealand exporters to really shift their export strategy. What’s happening there? Scott Briggs: When you look at Fonterra, their stated strategy is to basically be a skim protein and fat company. They have recognized that the days of whole milk powder are limited. China went through a period where they went from 500,000 tons of imports pre-COVID to 800,000, and now they’re back down to 500,000 again. They’ve really gone through that boom and during that period, Fonterra’s basically said, “We need to move out of whole milk powder and move back into being a skim and fat company.” And when I say a skim and fat company, a skim protein and fat company. And so, we have seen them push 50 to 70,000 tons more skim into Southeast Asia. But what they’re now starting to do is to value add that skim, similar to what the U.S. is doing: putting on more ultrafiltration in front of dryers, ’cause that’s the highest marginal investment that you can do. Starting to do more MPCs, starting to do more value add on the fat side, as well. There’s been some huge investments in UHT cream which are gonna be going ahead or have already gone ahead and are being launched for this year, which draws fat away from butter and AMF. Overall, their stated strategy is to be a nutrition and food service company. Nutrition: protein-heavy products. Food service: fat-heavy products. And so they’re moving away from that whole milk powder. I think that the next stage for them is to try and drive those two sorts of products into Southeast Asia. Because China itself is already quite a big market for those sorts of products and is probably screaming out for, “How do we not use WPC and WPI?” ‘Cause that’s the highest priced protein in the world right now. So how do we move away from that? I think they’re also trying to help Southeast Asia grow protein as a category. Ted Jacoby III: But based on what you said of China’s strategy, it almost sounds like it means China and New Zealand are going head-to-head in that market in Southeast Asia. Scott Briggs: Yeah. Yeah. I think- And- And look, that’s a 5 to 10-year view. We’re already seeing traditional Fonterra markets or New Zealand markets, Open Country Dairy’s obviously nearly 20% of the market down there now, as well, and are making their own steps towards value-adding fat. So that’s always one to keep in mind. We’re certainly seeing a competition of powder flows and functional product flows from China, including fat, laminated fat, pastry butter, those sorts of things, coming into Southeast Asian markets that were traditionally New Zealand-dominated markets. Diego Carvallo: Going back to China’s milk production, a lot of rumors about a disease in the northwest of China hand, foot, and mouth. Very little information. We have several customers that have asked about it. Without going down the rabbit hole, is there any update in that regards? Scott Briggs: Super important if it were to be a big story. I think that the likelihood of it being a massive story is low at the moment from what I’ve seen at least. The key thing to watch for me in China is always the spot milk price. They’ve got a fantastic not that it’s particularly visible, but they do have a huge trade of liquid milk market between different zones and between companies in specific zones. It’s a little bit like your plus/minus to the Class III. So that spot milk price to me is always the one which tells you: are they having any problems? And it does seem to me like the containment strategy was quite effective early on. Lock down the zones, stop the movement of the cattle. So yeah, it doesn’t look like it, but, it’s a bit of a black box. Diego Carvallo: So, we don’t expect a long-term impact to their production as of right now? Scott Briggs: Not at this stage, but that could change tomorrow. Ted Jacoby III: Everybody, we will be right back after these messages. Diego Carvallo: I’m Diego Carballo with T.C. Jacoby & Co.. T.C. Jacoby & Co. specializes in international dairy markets. For new customers that haven’t done business with Jacoby, I would tell them that we can provide them with many of the powders, dairy products that they consume, not only with the physical product, but we can also help them mitigate their risk. We know dairy. We know the main players. We know the main providers for the whole value chain. We are one of the strongest players in the U.S. market because we have contact all the way from the farmer moving the liquid milk all the way to the end users that buy the end products. I am Diego Carballo with T.C. Jacoby & Co., and we bring dairy to the world. Ted Jacoby III: Josh, I’m gonna put you on the spot. Is the U.S. gonna continue to increase our exports? And if so, who do we increase those exports at the expense of? How is that gonna play out? Josh White: Yes. We’re going to absolutely continue to increase our exports. The most obvious area is where there’s gonna be a need, and that’s fat, at the moment. It’s pretty well-noted that we’ve invested heavily in cheese production, boy, if those new cheese process facilities are running at the moment, they’re happy to have a co-product in whey proteins. Things are looking pretty good at the moment. As a result of that, we’re assuming that anybody who can produce cheese or process cheese is trying to process just as much as they possibly can. As a result of that, it seems pretty eminent that the U.S. will continue to have available cheese for the global consumer. Now we’ll take a look at the protein side. One of the expected results of this protein movement in the U.S., and now again, I wanna clarify this movement because I think there’s a lot of chatter about GLP-1 being the main driver, and I would almost view that as just a catalyst and a reason why the U.S. market might be leading in protein consumption. ‘Cause if you look around the world, this is a health and wellness trend that is not exclusive to the United States, not exclusive to Europe. It’s happening everywhere. We receive inquiries from all over the world, including import regions, for protein. Given the limitation on whey protein availability, one would assume that we’re gonna see quite a migration to milk proteins, and Scott did a great job of alluding to that earlier. We’re finding different ways of concentrating protein and delivering it to the consumer. The result of that, fat’s going to come along with it. I’ve listened to Gus, Mike and the team talk fairly openly about the incredible improvements in components over the past several years from the U.S. dairymen. Scott alluded to component growth in other parts of the world as well. We’re going to have surplus fat, and there’s going to be extra fat beyond what the U.S. consumer can take in, and as a result of that, we’re going to be hungry to capture market share in the global market. Now, you ask, “At whose expense?” And that’s a loaded question in some ways because I think there’s two things going on. I also think fat consumption globally is increasing, maybe not at the rate protein is and maybe not as popular right now, but if you look, ever since the early 2000s when we made this paradigm shift in the U.S. to moving away from the old food pyramid model and moving into this clean label, healthy consumable products, fat no longer was the enemy, and it seems like ever since that happened, the world has also agreed, and we’ve continued to see more clean label dairy fat being consumed per capita globally. So, two things will happen. One is the U.S., we’re in position to grow our milk production more quickly than anywhere else in the world. We have the infrastructure, currently, we have the economics to do that, and we might outpace that fat consumption growth globally. Which means then, yes, we will have to capture some market share. And from who? It, it’s either going to be Europe or Oceania, and I think that’s a seasonal thing. I don’t know that I would point to either single market as being the loser in that, other than that the dairy support and economic situation and the outlook for dairy growth in Europe seems to have more headwinds than the rest of the world. One would assume that they’re a bit more vulnerable, right now, to the U.S. capturing market share. Ted Jacoby III: Joe, what about fat? Joe Maixner: Josh summed it up pretty clearly. We’re going to have to continue to be a net exporter of fat. We’re gonna continue to add fat into our system with all of these high protein demand and these components that just continue to creep higher and higher. We’re not going to consume everything that we can supply. We will have to be a net exporter of fat moving forward until either the supply structurally shifts or we find a different way to utilize it. I agree with Josh and Scott that it’s going to be seasonal dependent on whose expense it comes at because I think that our fat market, our butter market specifically, is going the direction that cheese has gone over the past 15 years, where it becomes almost a cyclical market. We’ll be really competitive, we’ll get a lot of exports on the books, we’ll clean up our inventories, and then our pricing will spike, we will not be competitive on exports for a while, which will develop this surplus of domestic inventory and force us to depress pricing again and go back into the export markets. Josh White: We have a U.S. bias obviously, as we’re looking at the world. The one limitation to U.S. capturing fat market share is the reputation of U.S. fat being quite a bit different. Our commodity butter is an 80% salted butter. Our packaging is different. The visual appearance of our product is different. The flavor profile of our product is a bit different. Up until now, the opportunity for us to capture market share has happened largely in the processing sector as an ingredient to make something else. As of late, we’re starting to realize a little bit more of a win in, say, food service applications in developing markets and other things. From your perspective, how close is the U.S. to penetrating into the food service or retail business in import regions for butterfat? Scott Briggs: Yeah. It’s a good question. I think there’s two parts to that answer. The first is that you break down trade barriers slowly, but it happens. It’s been happening since the start of trade, right?  You know, I do think that there’s the ability to continue educating the consumer to get them comfortable with the product, the appearance of the product. I think I said that to Joe once: U.S. butter, it’s not terrible. It’s a great tagline. But I’m not a marketing guy. It will continue to gain acceptance, I think, Josh. I think the second thing to recognize is that with Fonterra, so New Zealand, trying to put so much fat into food service applications, I think for the point of educating, as you say, what does that mean in Asia and China? It’s not necessarily just butter. UHT cream is just this massive category which keeps on growing in Asia. Asia’s not this singular thing. Like they’re all sub-markets. But as a generalization, bakery is huge through a lot of Southeast Asia China itself. If you travel there, it’s cakes, it’s pastries, it’s a hell of a lot of really nice product. It’s seen as a luxury good if you like and through the supermarkets and convenience stores and everything like that. That’s a huge sector which needs a more functional application. There’s a lot of growth in there. That’s actually leaving behind ingredient markets for U.S. fat, whether that be in Australia or whether that be into Southeast Asia or the Middle East. So that is actually to me, probably the lowest hanging fruit, and it’s what you’ve already seen. So it’s not like you need to necessarily change the spec immediately to go for these applications. It can be just as easily going for what’s been left behind by New Zealand. Just one point that I’d make about whose market share is the U.S. gonna take on certain products? The European milk growth in late last year really does mask the fact that we probably still need U.S. butterfat exports to balance the world market. If you were to take the 100,000 excess tons that Europe made in the second half of last year out of the market, say that was unsustainable milk growth for a period of time, once we eat through that stock, we’ve taken a lot of the U.S. growth, if you like. We’ve absorbed a lot of that growth in what you’ve made, and we needed it. So I do think that we’re going through a process of still eating through those European stocks overall, and that glut that we had, which was driven by two years of fantastically high milk prices. But once we get through that, the global consumer is buying $5,000 butter, and they’re buying $3,000 skim. And that is a price level that’s comfortable in a lot of the world. Mideast is obviously going through a few lumps right now, so we may have some problems on demand in the next six months. But once we get through that and, hopefully the conflict there is over and they return to some kind of growth, we do get to a position where we probably need U.S. fat in the world market. Mike, you made the comment about how well the U.S. farmer is now not feeding for fat, and it does seem like some of that fat component growth at least is slowing. Do you see responsiveness to fat prices significantly, and how can that change the U.S. fat balance of being a reliable or necessary exporter? Mike Brown (2): As far as producer decisions, I’ve had some conversations, particularly with cheese plants, who are seeing some changes and talking with their producers. And some are making some adjustment to ration changing sources, and what those sources are finding is what we’re seeing in the milk supply, protein remains relatively strong and still grows. Fat has slowed down a bit, and most of it is PKE. That seems to be the change. Talking with producers, I had a good conversation, actually, last fall with a very high producing Jersey herd who said that if fat gets below about $1.70, it doesn’t really make sense for him to feed PKE anymore because he isn’t getting enough return from it. I think there’s probably some doing that. Is it broad? I think when the U.S. cows are milking so well, they’re reluctant to make a lot of ration changes that might slow things down. But we’re seeing somewhat on the margin. Will it solve the problem? No, because it’s genetics. It’s the genomics, our selection for fat. There’s so much variability in fat genetics within cattle, particularly Holsteins, that they’ve been able to make huge progress, and of course that’s permanent. So I expect that fat will continue to stay high. So, will we see some moderate fluctuations from time to time? Sure. That market will, I think, have some effect, particularly since they’ve gotten so high. Will our trend change? No. We’ll continue to improve in fat and in protein with time just because genetic selection in the U.S., particularly with sexed semen and genomics, has just gotten so intense that I don’t see that changing. The rate of gain will slow because the base population is higher versus the sires that are being used, but that will continue. We may slow down. We’re not gonna turn around and go the other way. Ted Jacoby III: Awesome. Thanks, Mike. Jacob Menge: I was gonna stir the pot a bit and almost take the other side by saying I have a degree in economics, so I succumb to liking to pretend that free trade is how everything works in the world. And it doesn’t. And I think we’re pretty clearly going down this path of almost a bifurcated world of trade relationships. And I really think it would be a mistake to ignore that moving forward, especially with Russia potentially being able to supply China in the future. We’re almost taking for granted that everyone is gonna buy from the most efficient producer in the world, and we’re really going into this kind of tumultuous geopolitical landscape that it feels like we’re probably ignoring. I don’t think that changes the fact that the U.S. is still gonna have to export. We’re producing more than we’re gonna consume. We’re not gonna let the product rot. We’re probably not gonna shut down all these nice facilities we just built. But it does make me question what price we are going to be getting when we go to export the products. What happens to the basis on those export sales? There’s a big geopolitical issue when it comes to a lot of the analysis we’ve just been doing. Scott Briggs: How much of the cake is baked? How much growth are we guaranteed to see on U.S. milk supply in the next two to three years, and cheese supply, just as a function of these investments that have already been made? How much of the world trade has already bifurcated? China’s getting it from New Zealand. Okay, that could break. I could see that breaking. I could see the Middle East possibly breaking, like you’re already seeing Iran getting certain product from Belarus or you already seen China get part of it. So there could be massive breakages in there, you’re right. The challenge is if we were to stop trading between Russia, the ‘Stans, and China, if that became one zone and we all became the other zone, like the two biggest linkages are the Middle East and New Zealand, and you probably do flood the market if you were to stop that. Who would get hurt in that scenario? It’s probably Europe. It’s Gonna be a race to the bottom to try and kill some of the highest cost milk production. Yeah, how much of the cake is baked? Ted Jacoby III: I would say it is pretty baked. But I think of it more in terms of between the current trends we’re seeing and how sticky we suspect they are from a breeding-to-beef standpoint, specifically cattle supply, beef cattle supply, and being able to continue to supply the beef market with beef, I think we’re gonna continue to see some really good returns to dairy farmers breeding to beef, which means they are going to resist and be pretty resistant even when the milk price is low to reducing the number of cows in the U.S. That’s number one. That puts in a really hard floor. In addition to that, those dairy farmers, especially the really big ones, are making really good money when you add the beef income on top of the milk income, and they’re looking to continue to expand as a result. So, in terms of the capacity that’s already added, they’re gonna fill it up. In terms of the additional capacity, which, let’s just put it this way: Over the last two to three years, we’ve had a lot of new capacity. Over the next couple of years, we will continue to have additional capacity added, but at a lower rate than what we just saw, but it’s all gonna get filled up. I don’t think we’re gonna have a problem over the next three to five years filling the capacity that we build because I think that the income situation for the dairy farmer in the U.S., it’s just in a really good spot. Even if you take, what’s our worst-case scenario from a milk revenue standpoint? Whey protein prices collapse. We produce so much milk that butter prices stay low, nonfat prices stay low, cheese prices stay low. All that means is we’re just gonna be that much more competitive in the global market, and I think our overproduction is probably gonna hurt Europe more than it’s actually gonna hurt the U.S. Josh White: I’ll just maybe add to it that, the most obvious way that the U.S. has invested is to add a lot of cheese processing capacity over the past few years, massive investments. People are well aware of it. But the aggregate of all of the incremental expansions and all of that has been really significant as well. It feels almost imminent right now that we were already investing in dairy growth before the beef on farm income reached a level that it’s at today, and it just doesn’t feel like that’s going to change any time in the near future. And as a result of that, it only maintains or accelerates that desire to make more milk. We were having conversations 24 months ago about how would we have the heifers to grow the herd? How would we do this? We found a way to grow the herd. The component growth outperformed expectations, and it’s only been more consistently profitable because the revenue stream’s been spread across more things. So we’re gonna have milk, and if we’re gonna have milk, we’re going to figure out a way to process that milk. And so far, there must have been some really good foresight to do that and build all of this cheese processing capacity to absorb it up till now, and we’ve got a little runway left to continue to fill them up. But there’s conversations at every major place about how do we extend our put-through and extend our yield by shipping more condensed skim, by processing more UF milk products, by… I can go on and on. I don’t know if it’s exactly what you were asking, but are we done in investing in our ability to process more milk? I don’t believe so. The next move had to have already been thought about and has to be under construction. We’re years out from the one after that. I think there’s plenty that are thinking about the next move. Mike Brown (2): It’s kinda like the beef has created this amazing revenue stream for dairy producers in the U.S., and our use of sexed semen and beef selection has just improved that. Same with whey proteins and plant profitability. With these very high whey protein isolate and whey protein concentrate prices, even at a 70-cent whey market, your margins on your whey proteins are very high, which gives those plants a little more room to grow. But I think the other part is: we’ve always talked about growth in cheese, the milk proteins are growing, too, and as whey protein prices get higher, manufacturers and product developers are figuring out ways to use lower-priced dairy protein alternatives, and that market’s gonna grow as well. How much milk do we have left to dry into whey? How much milk are we gonna have left to dry into powder if those markets continue to grow? We don’t think they’re done yet. We think that growth is there. Will these prices stay where they are forever? Probably not, but the demand seems to be continuing to grow. Part of it isn’t will we grow our plants, it’s also what will we be making in those plants? Are we gonna be making more focus on other protein products than just cheese? Ted Jacoby III: I think one of the most ironic things about milk production in the U.S. right now is the fact that the biggest danger, the thing that would hurt the dairy farmer the most right now, is actually not milk cost. It’s beef price. What would happen if the beef price collapses to the point where breeding the beef is no longer profitable? We’re going to double the amount of dairy heifers we start producing. You know how that plays out? That plays out by, right now the number of lactations out of a cow has gone from two to three to four, which is decreasing the rate of increase of the components in the milk because you’re turning over a smaller percentage of your herd every year. All you’re gonna do is speed that up. So maybe our milk production plateaus or even drops a little bit, but the components in the milk increase will speed up as a result. You’ve got the U.S. dairy industry now in a position where even the worst-case scenario continues to be a threat for Europe or the rest of the world from a milk supply standpoint. Mike Brown (2): We look at the percentage of milk in the U.S. that is now produced by these extremely efficient, very well-managed, very well-leveraged herds, and so our susceptibility is less. It’s kinda like we’re going through a heat wave right now, Scott, and everybody says, “What’s that gonna do to milk?” A whole lot less than it used to because of the controlled environments of our modern barns. We’ve done a lot and kinda like I think in a lot of industries, we’ve had some good profitability, people have made investments for the long term. And when you make big investments for the long term, you don’t usually turn around. You’re committed to being in the business. I think the biggest thing for us, in my mind, is for years we’ve been looking at the whey and dry milk markets, exports are a huge part of those sales. Cheese is growing, and we’ve reached a point with cheese where those export sales are becoming more and more important, and so how do we sustain them over time? What do we need to do? I think a good example, Joe’s been working a lot with our opportunities in butter over the last few years and working with folks that we work with and what do I need to make to take best advantage of those export markets? We’ll continue to do that as well. We’re just thinking a lot more world demand than just, “I need to make a 40-pound block of cheddar and who will buy it?” We’re trying to think a little harder than that now. Scott Briggs: Mike, you touched on if we’d had the milk production growth that we’ve had in the last two years 10 years ago, we would’ve wiped out certain pieces of milk production around the world. The market would not have absorbed that level of additional product. Now, we certainly had a period in October, November, December last year, where things got uneconomic in certain part of the world, and we didn’t last. Because ultimately, the demand shone through and, having listened to the podcast, protein demand and that protein story is a huge part of that in the States. That, to me, is a trend that’s really only beginning around a lot of the other parts of the world. It can go underestimated from your side of the world. You guys are the vanguard in that. You’re the leaders in it. You’ve got the category. China’s got a great category in this area and is making some huge investments in it. But, we’ve just seen here in Australia and in Southeast Asia some massive investments from European companies into cottage cheese, into ready-to-drink categories with the principal idea of exporting them to Asia. And, that growth model into developing markets is always put a high price product in there that’s branded from a developed market, and then grow the category with the local champion. You get an imported product, it looks sexy and it looks great, and it’s like a luxury product, and then you grow the category by producing a lower price point product to try and then get the local population really going for it. And so that’s just started. The other thing that’s really hot in different parts of Asia is, funnily enough, processed cheese for food service. It’s a really quickly growing category. It’s a category that gets a lot of interest. We’ve spent a lot of time on the point of does the U.S. have a competitive advantage for supply, in this kind of changing world. I think one of the biggest pieces of competitive advantage that the States has is its ability to grow an export pathway. It’s a mindset; it’s a trade infrastructure, as well, with government relations and everything like that allows you to grow into world markets in a way that probably a lot of other places don’t have. If we’ve got a growing demand, and I made this point before, we might see a few lumps here, mainly because of the Middle East, right? The Middle East looks a little bit overbought, looks a little bit quiet. Southeast Asia’s having a few little hiccups with changes in Indonesia and some of their currency devaluation, like these sort of short-term issues. But longer term, it’s very comfortable for a Southeast Asian consumer buying $2,800 to $3,200 skim and $5,000 butter. These are price points that work now, which never worked before, that’s the growth price point now. I do think that we’re going to have a situation where the world market is gonna be the next engine for some of the growth in protein demand and fat demand as well. Tristan Suellentrop: Scott, being based in Australia, I’d be interested to hear your perspective on the potential super El Niño that was confirmed this week. How does that factor into your outlook for dairy production in Oceania over the next year or two? And how concerned should producers in Australia and New Zealand be if it develops as forecasted? Scott Briggs: So it’s a very detailed topic. The El Niño indicator that everybody looks at is the Southern Oscillation Index, which is screaming El Niño at the moment. The reality is that what impacts Australia and New Zealand is not just the El Niño. It can be a major impact, but we’ve also had years where it has had no impact, and probably even at a similar level of El Niño indicator. And the reason for that is the El Niño obviously talks about what’s happening out in between South America and Asia, so that pressure, but our weather system, particularly in our dairy regions, is just as impacted by how much moisture is exiting Antarctica and moving north, into the southern parts of Australia, which are our heavy dairy regions, and also into New Zealand. The other weather system that impacts our dairy production during spring and our moisture levels is how much tropical cyclone activity is actually exiting the Pacific Islands and moving down into the North Island of New Zealand, which really doesn’t have a lot to do with El Niño either. The key point is that, right now El Niño, yeah, it’s a real phenomenon, but it’s not the only thing that’s gonna impact Oceania. when you look back at the history, which we have, some years it’s a really important thing, and other years you can have a fantastic spring in what seems to be an El Niño year. The other point that I’d make is that we have fantastic moisture right now. We’re getting huge rainfalls through Australia particularly, but also in New Zealand, which are really recharging things over winter. Economics would also mean that we’ve all got a fair bit of silage buffered away from the last 12 months of good weather. So I don’t think, at this stage, we’re seeing anything that’s like a huge impact on Oceanic dairy, but it’s very early. The thing that we’re all gonna need to watch out for is how much does it rain, particularly in New Zealand in December. New Zealand in December, January, that’s really when we have to start looking at what might happen. Ted Jacoby III: Cool. All right. Scott, this was a fantastic discussion. Thank you so much for joining us. Really appreciate your insight and your expertise in what’s going on the other side of the pond. Thank you.  Thank you. Lockhart, thank you very much. Cheers, guys. Next time on The Milk Check. Will Loux: The U.S. exports as we go forward here over the next few years is at a crossroad. Do we swing back to balancing to milk fat, which would mean we’re probably short of protein? Or do we start balancing to protein, which means we’re gonna need to find homes for a heck of a lot more cheese and butter. Ted Jacoby III: Join us and our special guest, Will Loux from the U.S. Dairy Export Council as we discuss the future of U.S. dairy exports. Ending commercial: The best part of my job is working directly with cheesemakers and helping their businesses run better because they make wonderful, great products. Anything we can do to make them more successful not only helps them, but helps Jacoby. We look at how milk flows through their plant, what their real cost of products are, so when they’re making marketing decisions, making new investments, particularly on whey processing, they have a benchmark to use to determine what opportunities they have and what the returns would be. Whey has become so valuable with these high-protein markets. There’s added value that they can get by just condensing it, and maybe moving further down the supply chain in the longer term, making products themselves. My role is to help them cost that so they have a better understanding of what the opportunities can be. Longer term, we expect the whey protein market to remain very valuable. For one part of the supply chain to be successful, everyone has to be, and part of my role is trying to help people be as competitive as they can possibly be. My superpower is practical application of data and analysis. I believe firmly that Jacoby’s success is because we help our suppliers and our buyers be successful. I’m Mike Brown, and I love working for T.C. Jacoby & Co. because I get to help people make their businesses more successful.

This week's Open Mic guest is Krysta Harden, President and CEO of the U.S. Dairy Export Council. Sales of dairy products in North America and around the globe have seen exponential increases over the past few decades. Harden discusses renewal of the USMCA trade agreement, proposed language in a new farm bill that would improve the outlook for dairy farmers and the International Year of the Women Farmer. 

Weeks into the Iran conflict, the disruption to dairy logistics is becoming more visible. Shipping dairy to the Middle East used to take 30 to 40 days. Now it can take 60 to 75. And the longer this conflict lasts, the more pressure it puts on the dairy trade. In this episode of The Milk Check, host Ted Jacoby III talks with our logistics expert, Tyler Jokerst, Director of Trade Operations, about what all this means for dairy producers, traders and exporters. In this episode, we cover: Why Persian Gulf access remains severely limited, and how exporters are responding How normal 30- to 40-day transit times can stretch to 60 to 75 days Why alternate routes are creating new choke points How higher oil prices are raising shipping and trucking costs Why fertilizer, feed costs and food inflation are becoming part of the conversation How delayed demand, product displacement and global economic stress could bring more dairy market volatility Listen to The Milk Check episode 096: A Logistics Expert on the Iran Conflict and Dairy Trade. Got questions? We'd love to hear them. Submit below, and we might answer it on the show. Ask The Milk Check Ted Jacoby III: Coming up on The Milk Check. Tyler Jokerst: As this thing progresses, it could prolong it. Ted Jacoby III: 30 to 40 days of shipping from the East Coast to the Middle East is now 60 to 75. Welcome to The Milk Check from T.C. Jacoby and Company, your complete guide to dairy markets, from the milking parlor to the supermarket shelf. I’m Ted Jacoby. Let’s dive in. Ted Jacoby III: Today, we have a special guest, Tyler Jokerst, our Director of Trade Operations, and we’re asking Tyler to join us ’cause we thought it would be a pretty timely topic to discuss logistics, both international and domestic. With everything going on in the Middle East, how is that affecting logistics, in terms of global trade for dairy, especially important for U.S. dairy, considering the fact that we’re exporting over 20% of our milk production these days? But it’s also affecting us domestically. Gas prices are probably up over 30% at this point, which is going to affect costs when we’re getting all the dairy products we make to consumers here at home. So, Tyler, welcome and thanks for joining us. Tyler Jokerst: Thanks for having me, Ted. Ted Jacoby III: Tyler, what is going on in the Middle East? How is it affecting logistics? Are we going to be able to get container ships into the Persian Gulf anytime soon? And if not, what are we doing in response to that? Tyler Jokerst: I think the easy answer is: we don’t know, other than there is a war over there. That’s the biggest thing right now causing the impact, and the huge leverage point Iran has is the Strait of Hormuz. For that strait, there’s a lot of product that goes in and out of there. Primarily oil, but, yeah, a big part of that is containerized shipments, as well. As we all know, the Middle East is a big purchaser of dairy products as well, right now. And we’re seeing a lot of disruption there as far as what we can get in or out of there. It’s almost come to a virtual stop. Ted Jacoby III: So, they can’t get into the Persian Gulf. Are there other options? Tyler Jokerst: Tomorrow, there might not be. That’s the situation we’re in right now. Every day is a day-to-day situation. The current workarounds are what the steamship lines are calling landbridges. So, essentially, you’re porting into ports on the other side of Saudi Arabia, where you’re not going into the Persian Gulf, and they’re either working on truck or train routes. It can get across, over to Riyadh or Dammam. Ted Jacoby III: So, Dammam is the main container port for Saudi Arabia and the Persian Gulf. What’s the port in the Red Sea that we’re using now instead? Tyler Jokerst: King Abdullah is one of ’em. If you go further north, where you’re getting into Jordan, you have Jeddah as well. So, there are a couple of different options there. I think the biggest issue that poses is you’re putting a lot of stress on infrastructure that maybe wasn’t built to handle that much volume coming through. This is another ripple effect we’re keeping an eye on, and we’re staying close with our freight forwarders and our steamship lines to see if we’re gonna have any ripple effects as far as boats that are anchoring offshore and waiting to get checked. If you were to look at it right now, you’re looking at a miniature effect of what COVID was like in LA back in 2020, when you had numerous boats anchoring offshore, waiting to get offloaded, because you’re at a choke point, trying to put all that supply into one port. So, it’s unfolding as we go through this day by day. Ted Jacoby III: So, I take it, there’s a traffic jam going into Jeddah and King Abdullah at [00:03:00] the moment? Tyler Jokerst: Just a little bit. Ted Jacoby III: What delays are we experiencing? Tyler Jokerst: If you were to look at the product on the water, we are currently looking at maybe 15 to 20 days in our current state. As this thing progresses, it’s gonna be up to the providers, the steamship lines and the freight forwarders and how they work with us to be able to dictate what new routes they need to take or what alternatives they need to make, as far as getting this product to those consumers. So, it could prolong it to where it’s a constant 20-day longer shipping period than what we’re used to seeing in those areas, which is typically anywhere from 30 to 40 days. Ted Jacoby III: 30 to 40 days of shipping from the East Coast to the Middle East is now 60 to 75. Tyler Jokerst: Yep. Absolutely. You’re right on that one. Ted Jacoby III: Are we still loading containers of cheese and powder and butter and other things and putting ’em on boats and sending ’em to the Middle East? Tyler Jokerst: Yeah. We are. One of the key things that we’re having to keep an eye on is per steamship line. So, if you’re working with freight forwarders, they work with numerous different steamship lines, and every steamship line handles it differently. And the main part of why they’re handling it differently is all related to the geopolitics. Some of the steamship lines are owned by Mediterranean companies, maybe in Italy. There are other steamship lines owned by companies in Israel. They’re probably not getting through the Strait. And then you have the Chinese and Korean-owned steamship lines that tend to have a little more leeway because they might be a little more neutral with Iran, where they might be allowed to pass.  It’s different with every carrier. So, whenever we look at this, and we assess the notes that we have to have with our freight forwarders, we have: who’s the service provider that we think we should be using, because that’s the one that tends to have the golden ticket in. Tyler Jokerst: And that’s where we have to balance out cost and service. They might have the golden ticket that can get them into the port. That’s gonna come at a price. They know the demand’s higher because, from a geopolitical standpoint, they can get in and they can get the job done where maybe the other providers can’t. You start peeling a lot more layers back than what you’ve historically had to, where you just look at a rate in a transit and say, “Okay, this works. We’ll communicate according to our customer and meet their demands.” Now, you’re dealing with a war. It’s unpredictable for those involved directly and indirectly, including us. And that’s where we have to weigh out additional options that are being thrown at us on a daily basis. That target is moving. We’ll come in tomorrow, and we’ll probably have a different set of rules that we need to follow for that day. Ted Jacoby III: But you bring up a good point. I never thought of it that way before. It’s like you can’t take Delta Air Lines into the Middle East because it’s American-owned, but you could probably take Emirates. Most big steamships are actually not owned by the U.S., and those steamship lines that have good relationships over there actually can still get product in. Tyler Jokerst:  I don’t think you get any airplanes into the Middle East right now, but yeah, from a steamship line standpoint, you can. Whenever I say they can pass through Hormuz, you went from several hundred ships going through the Strait of Hormuz in a day to now, single digits. So, that’s a loose thing where it’s allowed, but less risk of impact or targeting from an economic standpoint, whenever you’re going on [00:06:00] one ship versus the other, that’s the biggest thing to consider. Ted Jacoby III: How much have shipping costs increased? What was the going rate for a container into the Middle East from the East Coast, and what is it now? Tyler Jokerst: If you’re looking at door-to-door, or door-to- port, we were hovering around $ 8,000, all in, and now it’s looking more around $10,000, all in. Ted Jacoby III: Maybe 20%, 30% increase in shipping costs. But that’s not double or triple. Tyler Jokerst: Not yet. It could be by next week, though. Ted Jacoby III: Got it. Tyler Jokerst: Yep. Mike Brown: Tyler, when you have a select group of shipping companies you can work with, and you look at the 20%, 30%, that surprised me, it’s not higher. Do we see people deciding we’re just gonna lay low and not try to ship to that market for a while until we see things more stable because of the risk? Tyler Jokerst: I won’t name specific providers, but we do have some providers where when this thing started to kick off, they were already putting some plans together, and then by the following week, they decided that any of their refrigerated equipment they didn’t want going on that landbridge option that we were talking about earlier. So, you are seeing that as well, where they’re purely looking at it from an insurance standpoint. Insurance costs are going up a thousand x and saying, “Okay, the risk isn’t worth the reward right now,” because of how much insurance costs to go in there—Wartime, surcharges, things like that. And they’re completely staying out of the situation altogether and just rerouting their equipment. The bigger effect is that as this goes on, and there’s no improvement to the current situation, it will ripple into the rest of the markets, and you will start to see delays at other ports that maybe service these ports, as far as these types of trade lanes. And you’ll start to see some disruptions in the supply chain because people have to do something with that product that maybe they already sold. Reselling it might not be an option because the way the markets are right now, the pricing might not allow for that to happen, especially with dairy. If you’re getting a premium for exporting it versus selling it domestically, you’re gonna sit on it and wait this thing out. So, now you start to have backups in your supply chains at the origin ports, maybe the domestic warehousing, or even, in some cases, the manufacturing sites. So, there are a lot of effects that come from that. Ted Jacoby III: Tyler, I know that Europe has traditionally sold a lot more dairy into the Middle East than the U.S., even though the U.S. does do a decent amount of business there. They’re having the same problem we are in terms of getting to these ports, but are they capable of shipping product over the land? Let’s say across Istanbul, through Turkey and get there that way? Or are there too many issues with that approach? You’re going through Jordan, you’re going through Syria, you’re going through the Kurds. Territory. Tyler Jokerst: Israel’s dropping bombs north of the country as well. You’re not just looking at us dropping bombs in Iran and then Iran, throwing missiles across the water. You got Israel trying to take on a two-front war as well. I couldn’t see how a land option would be feasible. Ted Jacoby III: Yeah, I would have to agree with that. So, we know what’s going on in the Middle East. We know that it’s harder to get the product there right now. How’s it affecting us back home? Where are we seeing the effects [00:09:00] in logistics back home? Tyler Jokerst: Gas prices all day. I think barrels are currently sitting at around $95 a barrel. We’ve seen truck prices rise anywhere from 10 to 20%. It is a prolonged tightness in capacity, as well, but fuel has been a big factor as far as our domestic truckload goes, and the rates that we’re used to paying at this time of year. Ted Jacoby III: Outside of just increased cost because of increased diesel prices, are we seeing any other effects? What about the domestic ports? Are we seeing any backup at the domestic ports? Or are our ports still functioning normally, and it’s really only a fuel surcharge problem? Tyler Jokerst: Yeah. Our ports are operating functionally, as it stands. Those ripple effects will eventually hit us. They haven’t yet, but the longer this thing goes on, the more exposure that leaves to ports that are further away from the epicenter. Joe Maixner: Keep in mind, a lot of the stuff that is still shipping over into the Middle East is contracts that were put on the books before any of this started. We haven’t seen much interest on anything since the beginning of March going into that region, for obvious reasons. Ted Jacoby III: So, we’re not seeing any new contracts, but we’re still having conversations with our customers about how to fulfill the contracts that were on the books that were expected to ship at this time before the conflict started. Joe Maixner: Yeah. I think there’s going to be some pent-up demand the longer that this goes on. It’s gonna cause a pop in markets when this finally gets resolved because everybody’s gonna see that demand come back. Especially given the fact that the longer this goes on, the more potential for our markets to weaken because we’re not getting additional sales on the books and product out. So we could see a quick pop when things really do open back up. I do think it would take a while for that stuff to even roll through the system because there’s gonna be a backlog in ports and products still needing to ship anyway. So, expect more volatility. Tyler Jokerst: We’re currently going through an annual slowdown, too, in the Middle East. I think it’s Eid al-Fitr that’s going on right now during Ramadan. So, a lot of the buildup in exports is prior to that, with them trying to get all the product over there.  Just looking at last year, before we had any major geopolitical events happening, aside from tariffs, we would typically see a slowdown this time of year going into that region.  That’s a good point. Diego, what are your thoughts? Diego Carvallo: I know that energy is hugely affected by the Hormuz channel being blocked. But is food impacted as much as energy? I think the answer is no. I think most of the destinations where we take our dairy products are both from the U.S. and from Europe. At least access has not been blocked as bad as it has happened for exports of energy. So I’m just wondering if that impact on dairy is mainly caused by energy or just because it’s impacting fundamentals for our products. Ted Jacoby III: I know that Dammam is the big port in the Gulf for container ships. It’s a big oil port too, but there’s a separate container port, and then Bahrain and Qatar and even Dubai have their own ports. But then, Saudi [00:12:00] Arabia in particular has Jeddah and King Abdullah. And so, those two ports have taken over in the meantime. Tyler’s comment about Ramadan being in the rearview mirror is appropriate. This is the slowdown time with demand. And so we probably aren’t feeling the effect as much. I also think, from an energy perspective, the closing of the Strait of Hormuz is affecting other countries, like China, a lot more than it’s affecting the U.S. because we have, over the last 20 years, grown more energy independent because of the shale and fracking we’ve been doing domestically. And I think that has helped quite a bit. Joe Maixner: Oceania is at a severe disadvantage with this right now, too. I was looking at their energy prices and their diesel costs in Australia, for example. It’s the equivalent of $8.20 a gallon in U.S. terms. They’re really feeling the pinch, and I believe that New Zealand’s in the same boat, and that’s going to affect their shipping rates. Ted Jacoby III: All these huge container ships, what is their fuel? Diesel? Tyler Jokerst: Yeah. Ted Jacoby III: So, it’s just like trucks. They just buy a lot of diesel. So, if they’re dropping off in Australia, they’ve gotta fill up in Australia, where that oil costs a lot more than it does in other places. Mike Brown: I think this is all walking around the macro effects, and I think we need to talk about that. Let’s talk about the cost of producing food with what we’re doing to the urea, the nitrogen fertilizer markets, with the cutoff of moving product through the strait. Yes, a lot of it’s already bought; it isn’t all already bought. Between that and what we’re seeing with tariffs in Canada and their struggles with potash, we’re raising the cost of growing food because cows eat food just like we eat food. So, there are costs there that I think we have to think about. The other thing is these, particularly the Asian or even European, but Asia, ’cause that’s our export opportunities, those economies are so dependent on oil coming through the strait. And as those economies slow down, they tend to be much more price-sensitive about products than we are because they don’t have the incomes we have. Is that gonna slow down? Is that gonna cause a longer-term impact? If we see the world economy basically slow down, what will that do to dairy demand? Dairy is essential, but it is something cost-wise that they may be looking for other alternatives, particularly on the fat side. We can’t ignore that possibility. Right now, it looks good. Look at the butter market, today it recovered a little bit again. Prices, right now, for farmers are good. They can make money in current markets. But how much global slowdown will we see from this, and how will that affect demand for our U.S. dairy products, is still a concern of mine. Ted Jacoby III: We’re sitting here at the tail end of March. If this thing doesn’t show real signs of starting to wrap up in the next few weeks, I think there’s gonna be a tone shift in the general macroeconomic markets. There’s been a lot of talk: how is the U.S., and how is Trump gonna extract ourselves from this conflict? And we’re getting to that point where the length of time is becoming a very real issue. We haven’t quite got there, I don’t think. But I think we’re getting close. Mike Brown: Those of us who lived through stagflation in the late seventies, [00:15:00] it’s feeling a little bit too much like that right now. Ted Jacoby III: I would agree. In the seventies, gas prices caused it. Mike Brown: Oh, absolutely. And it was the conflict with Iran that caused some of that, too. Ted Jacoby III: Yeah. I think that the economy had already been set up for stagflation for other reasons, government debt being the big one, but you add this to it, yeah, you’re right. That’s very problematic in terms of getting the economy to function smoothly. Mike Brown: Government debt isn’t exactly our strong point right now. Ted Jacoby III: The only saving grace is that everybody has the same problem. You look at any developed country, and they’ve all got the same problem we do when it comes to government debt. Mike Brown: Yeah, they do. And if you’re looking at our export opportunities, that isn’t necessarily a good thing. There’s a lot to be nervous about right now. Tyler Jokerst: If you tie it back to dairy exports, the Middle East accounts for like 20% of all dairy exports in the world. They consume a lot of cheese. That seems to be a growing sector for ’em as well. For us, that hurts the bottom line. So it seems to be one of the biggest issues for us as a handler of dairy products. Mike Brown: One of the conversations at U.S. Dairy Export Council meetings this week was displacement. If the product can’t get there, who’s gonna buy it? That’s more competition for us because that’s the close-by market for Europe. They love it. It’s close, it’s efficient, but if they can’t get the product there, we’re gonna compete with them somewhere else. Ted Jacoby III: When it comes to cheese and butter, Mike, you’re spot on. We’re getting lucky on the non-fat side because Iran was a skim milk powder exporter. And that’s off the market, too. Mike Brown: If you look at prices powder’s not having a problem with finding demand. Ted Jacoby III: They aren’t. Mike Brown: A lot in supply. Ted Jacoby III: [Laughter] Tyler Jokerst: Alright. Tristan Suellentrop: We’ve all dealt with shipment delays before, but what’s the most absurd reason you’ve ever seen or heard of one being held up for? Tyler Jokerst: Oh, shipment delays. Yeah, the worst one I had wasn’t at Jacoby; we seemed to have it dialed in here. The worst one was from my previous employer. We hit a trans shipment point. Transshipment points are where you’ll have the steamship lines connect with another boat, and they’ll offload some of their containers to the other boat and continue. And it was something like a 40-day delay of just getting it from one boat to another that severely hurt us. This is one that we’ve had. During 2020, there were plenty of ’em. You looked at the ports of LA and Long Beach, and it could be 30-40 days. And these boats were just anchored off the shore and waiting to get offloaded. But because of all the causes and effects that we had with COVID, you ran into a lot of delays from that. That was a regular occurrence back in 2020 and 2021. Ted Jacoby III: Tyler, thanks for joining us. Really appreciate it. Great discussion. So thankful that you’re helping us navigate all this stuff in these very interesting times.  Thanks, everybody, for joining us today.

The United States is negotiating bilateral trade agreements at a frenetic pace across the globe. Dairy's key to success has been a proactive approach that gets the fundamentals of industry needs right, said Shawna Morris, an executive vice president with NMPF and the U.S. Dairy Export Council, in a Dairy Defined Podcast released today. “On the whole, a lot of good stuff coming down the pipe,” said Morris, specifically citing agreements with Indonesia and Taiwan as holding potential for significant market expansion, for dairy, which saw its second-best year for exports in 2025. Both in advising the U.S. government on agreements and maintaining gains overseas, NMPF/USDEC trade efforts are matching the federal government's in its intensity, she said.  “Our focus really is on, how do we make sure that we're keeping the doors open, and also looking at some of the policy tools that can be leveraged in order to expand consumption or dairy access more broadly,” Morris said. 

Low milk prices are a grim reality for dairy producers in the near term, with growing trade and federal action serving as remedies to get farmers through tough times, NMPF economists said in a Dairy Defined Podcast.“There really is no quick fix to get back into balance,” said Will Loux, Senior Vice President for Global Economic Affairs and the head of the joint economics team for NMPF and the U.S. Dairy Export Council. “I do think there are real ways that, from the Whole Milk to Healthy Kids Act, to the National Milk Exports and Trade program, to opportunities to beef up Dairy Revenue Protection, to making sure folks are utilizing that program or Dairy Margin Coverage. There are ways to help, I think, mitigate the pain that we see dairy farmers feeling today from a policy perspective.” Loux is joined in the podcast by Stephen Cain, Vice President for Economic Policy and Market Analysis.

Our broadcast team is on the ground this week at the 2025 NAFB Convention in Kansas City. On this special edition of the show – we'll hear interviews conducted by members of our team. Nicole Heslip talks with William Loux from the U.S. Dairy Export Council and National Milk Producers Federation, Jared White interviews Ed Elfman from the American Bankers Association, and Brent Barnett sits down with Iowa farmer Tim Meyer for a harvest update.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

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Learn About The Top Global Markets Targeted by the U.S. Dairy Export Council DMI's Scott Wallin explores how your dairy checkoff resources are driving global demand for U.S. dairy with Becky Nyman, a fourth-generation California dairy farmer and chair of the U.S. Dairy Export Council (USDEC), and Rick Ortman, USDEC's Senior VP of Strategic Insights. Rick highlights USDEC's mission to make U.S. dairy the supplier of choice worldwide—backed by rigorous market research and strategic insights while Becky shares the importance of uniting farmers, processors, and manufacturers under one global voice. With nearly 20% of all U.S. milk production already feeding international markets, they make it clear why exports are critical to sustaining dairy businesses and attracting the next generation to the farm. From boosting dairy demand in Mexico to building strong ties in Southeast Asia through USDEC's Center for Dairy Excellence in Singapore, the conversation reveals how mission trips, health research, and hands-on partnerships are strengthening trust in U.S. dairy across the globe. Tune in to find out! To learn more about the national dairy checkoff and your local dairy checkoffs, please visit dairycheckoff.com Host & Guest: ·      Host: Scott Wallin, Vice President of Farmer Communications & Media Relations, Dairy Management Inc. ·      Guest: Becky Nyman, California dairy farmer and Chair, U.S. Dairy Export Council ·      Guest: Rick Ortman, Senior Vice President of Strategic Insights, U.S. Dairy Export Council

Barb O'Brien, CEO of DMI, discusses the State of the Industry report with its authors, Will Loux, analyst with NMPF and U.S. Dairy Export Council, and Mike McCully, DMI consultant. DMI commissioned the report in early 2024 and highlights the unprecedented $8-10 billion in new and expanded dairy infrastructure. Key findings include the significant impact of new cheese plant capacity, consumer recovery from high inflation, and structural changes in the dairy industry in China. The report emphasizes the checkoff's need to invest in strategies focused on new product innovations and research, new technologies, and a strong commitment to meeting global demand, as well as the ability to adapt to changing market dynamics. Tune in to find out! To learn more about the national dairy checkoff and your local dairy checkoffs, please visit dairycheckoff.com Host & Guest: ·      Host: Barb O'Brien, CEO and President of Dairy Management Inc. ·      Guest: Will Loux, Senior Vice President, Global Economics Affairs of U.S. Dairy Export Council ·      Guest: Mike McCully, President of McCully Consulting

Something as simple as the name of a food can be a trade barrier for U.S. dairy. Shawna Morris is the executive vice president for trade policy and global affairs for the National Milk Producers Federation and the U.S. Dairy Export Council. She says there are quite a few unfair trade policies that the European Union forces on the United States. Geographical Indications are an example -- GIs are a protective label for products with a specific geographical origin. Morris explains why GIs are problematic for dairy products that, according to other places in the world, have a common name.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The U.S. dairy industry took a milestone step to further collaborations with Indonesia. Shawna Morris is the executive vice president for trade policy and global affairs for the National Milk Producers Federation and the U.S. Dairy Export Council. These are two of several organizations that signed a memorandum of understanding with Indonesia that could result in more dairy exports for U.S. producers. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It's May 8th. Do you know where your tariff is? When the tariff winds shift, the Jacoby team is there to help you steer your strategy. Tune in to the latest episode of The Milk Check with special guest Will Loux from the U.S. Dairy Export Council, as we cover: Tariff tensions – How will ongoing trade talks between the U.S. and China impact dairy exports? Shifting trade strategies – How are global buyers adjusting to new tariff realities, and where does the U.S. stand in this complex landscape? Innovation and adaptation – What moves should U.S. producers and buyers make to adapt and thrive amidst tariff uncertainty? Don't miss this conversation as we explore how tariffs are reshaping the dairy trade and what the future holds for U.S. dairy exports. Listen now to The Milk Check episode 77: Tariff talk with Will Loux from the U.S. Dairy Export Council Intro (with music): Welcome to The Milk Check, a podcast from TC Jacoby & Company where we share market insights and analysis with dairy farmers in mind. Ted Jacoby III: Welcome, everybody, to this week's version of The Milk Check. It is May 1st, 2025. Once again, we're going to revisit the topic of tariffs and international trade. And as everybody knows, it's a shifting landscape. We have a special guest today, Will Loux from the US Dairy Export Council. Will is Senior Vice President of Global Economic Affairs. Will, thanks for joining us today. Will Loux: Thanks for having me, Ted. Good to be on. Ted Jacoby, III: We also have some of our usual suspects. Mike Brown, VP of Dairy Market Intelligence, Miguel Aragon, our director of Latin America Cheese Sales, and Josh White, our VP of Dairy Ingredients, and Tristan Sellentrup. Thanks for joining us, guys. So Will, we're going to start in the obvious place. What is DC's attitude about everything that's going on in tariffs, especially with regards to dairy? Do you see anything changing anytime soon? Is there anything in the works? What's the landscape as you see it? Will Loux: There's a lot of uncertainty. We were talking about several different types of tariffs that are effectively going on because we have our bilateral relationship with China where we have very high tariffs both for products coming into the US and China has very high tariffs for our dairy products going out, but we also have the 10% universal tariff. We have the steel and aluminum tariff. We have the USMCA question marks between Canada, Mexico, everything else. So right, now I would say there's about four different tariff balls being juggled all at once. And as far as where we're going in DC, I think that's anyone's guess where obviously within national milk and the Export Council, very hard at work these days. Very grateful. Jaime and Shauna and Tony Rice on our trade policy team get to live this every day while I get to check out, I guess, what's happening in the markets. Ted Jacoby, III: There's been rumors that China and the US are talking and they're trying to work out some things that could lower those tariffs. What are you hearing? Will Loux: Good question. Right now, at least what we've heard is there are talks, at least attempting to. I don't know how far along these talks have gotten. When we look at the tariffs between the US and China right now, there probably needs to be some sort of path to de-escalation, but this is also something that when we had the first round of retaliatory tariffs between US and China, that lasted 18 months. So I personally don't necessarily expect this to change overnight. That would surprise me. There are a lot of things that would surprise me these days in DC, but I would expect this to be in for the long haul. Whether it stays at 125%, I don't know, but at the same time finding an off ramp for what seems to be at least somewhat of a strategy towards decoupling the US and China in a lot of ways continues to be at least very much forefront and li...

Krysta Harden, the President and CEO of the U.S. Dairy Export Council, a non-profit, independent membership organization that represents the global trade interests of U.S. … Read more The post Krysta Harden, President and CEO of the U.S. Dairy Export Council appeared first on Top Entrepreneurs Podcast | Enterprise Podcast Network.

The U.S. Dairy Export Council and National Milk Producers Federation expressed their strong disappointment with a preliminary ruling by Colombia's government that targets U.S. dairy exporters.

The National Milk Producers Federation and the U.S. Dairy Export Council are asking the U.S. government to leverage all available tools if Colombia implements countervailing tariffs on U.S. milk powder exports.

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Listen as Scott Wallin, Vice President of Farmer Relations, chats with Beau Hayden, vice president of strategic intelligence, about his work with online retailers such as Instacart and Amazon. They will also discuss promotional partnerships with both local checkoffs and retailer, Dollar General, as well as international partnerships with U.S. Dairy Export Council. Tune in to find out!  To learn more about the national dairy checkoff and your local dairy checkoffs, please visit www.usdairy.com.   Host & Guest: ·        Host: Scott Wallin, Vice President of Farmer Relations and Media Relations, Dairy Management Inc. ·        Guest: Beau Hayden, Vice President of Strategic Intelligence, Dairy Management Inc.

This morning we get reaction from NCGA president Harold Wolle on the ITC decision on herbicide imports plus developments with the new Farm Bill. William Loux, Senior Vice President of Global Economic Affairs for NMPF and the U.S. Dairy Export Council, talks with Chip and Karen Bohnert about the state of the dairy industry.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

What trends are we seeing with dairy products developed for exports? Does unique branding and logos for dairy products make a difference in the exports market? Can you tell us more about the new Singapore Dairy Center of Excellence? These were a few of the questions dairy farmers asked during the 2023 Joint Annual Meeting. On this podcast, William Loux, Vice President, Global Economics Affairs at U.S. Dairy Export Council, and Vikki Nicholson-West, Senior Vice President Global Ingredients Marketing and Executive Director USDEC Singapore Ltd at US Dairy Export Council answered these questions and more.  Tune in to find out! To learn more about the national dairy checkoff and your local dairy checkoffs, please visit www.usdairy.com.   Host & Guest: Host: Charles Krause, MN Dairy Farmer – Farmer Relations Chair Guest: William Loux - Vice President, Global Economics Affairs at U.S. Dairy Export Council Guest: Vikki Nicholson-West - Senior Vice President Global Ingredients Marketing and Executive Director USDEC Singapore Ltd at US Dairy Export Council

How did U.S. dairy exports affect the market in 2023 and what does the future hold for dairy exports in 2024 and beyond? What is the checkoff doing globally to help promote and grow international consumer trust in U.S. dairy? Listen as Minnesota dairy farmer and Farmer Relations Committee Chair Charles Krause discusses U.S. dairy exports with William Loux, Vice President, Global Economics Affairs at U.S. Dairy Export Council, and Vikki Nicholson-West, Senior Vice President Global Ingredients Marketing and Executive Director USDEC Singapore Ltd at US Dairy Export Council.  Vikki and Will highlight the importance of the international market and how partnerships and collaboration facilitate the US Dairy Export Council's mission. Learn why global relationships between partners, co-ops, processors, and checkoffs are the bedrock of a thriving dairy export strategy.  Tune in to find out! To learn more about the national and local dairy checkoffs, please visit www.usdairy.com. Host & Guest: ·      Host: Charles Krause, MN Dairy Farmer – Farmer Relations Chair ·      Guest: William Loux - Vice President, Global Economics Affairs at U.S. Dairy Export Council ·      Guest: Vikki Nicholson-West - Senior Vice President Global Ingredients Marketing and Executive Director USDEC Singapore Ltd at US Dairy Export Council

On Tuesday's AOA, we start the show with a look at the markets and perspective on the holiday trading period with Naomi Blohm from Total Farm Marketing. In Segment Two, we have a conversation with the new chair of the U.S. Dairy Export Council, Alex Peterson from Missouri. We discuss his trip to COP28, the latest USMCA ruling on Canada's TRQ's and a dairy export outlook for 2024. Then in Segment Three, we discuss the implications of Koch's deal to buy OCI's Iowa nitrogen plant for $3.6 Billion and an update on the fertilizer markets in general as StoneX VP of Fertilizer, Josh Linville, joins the show. We wrap the show with a look at ag news headlines.

This week's Open Mic guest is Krysta Harden, president and CEO of the U.S. Dairy Export Council. Dairy farmers and processors are frustrated with a recent trade ruling favoring Canada's import restrictions on U.S. dairy products. Harden says the industry isn't finished with the issue and is surveying options in the matter. Harden says the volume and value of dairy exports for 2023 will be short of the record marks set last year. In the upcoming farm bill, Harden says the industry hopes for continued support for the Market Access Program and Foreign Market Development funding.

Krysta Harden, president and CEO of the U.S. Dairy Export Council, speaks with DairyVoice host Connie Kuber of Sealpro Silage Barriers on what USDEC does, the recent mission to Mexico and IDF's upcoming World Dairy Summit.

Last year was a record year for dairy exports. This year, it's cooled off a bit due to a few fluctuations in different regions of the globe. But the U.S. Dairy Export Council sees Southeast Asia as a huge opportunity for dairy products and dairy ingredients. USDEC Chairman Alex Peterson tells Mid-West Farm Report about the trips he's been on to Japan and Singapore to send that message. USDEC also works to maintain current relationships in countries such as Mexico. Even though U.S. dairy exports in 2023 are down from 2022, Peterson is optimistic about the trend line.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Biden administration's export agenda has included enforcement of trade agreement provisions critical to American agriculture. USDA Trade Undersecretary Alexis Taylor joins Agri-Pulse to discuss the latest on the discussions with Mexico over genetically modified corn as well as the markets the department has identified as its next trade mission targets. Then, Jaime Castaneda with the U.S. Dairy Export Council and Kam Quarles with the National Potato Council offer their thoughts on the trade issues facing their organizations and how the Biden administration's trade efforts are working for producers. Want to receive Newsmakers in your inbox every week? Sign up! http://eepurl.com/hTgSAD

We know that U.S. diets contain a lot of dairy but do international consumers crave our U.S. cheese, yogurt, butter, ice cream, etc…? Washington dairy farmer Lynn Wheeler Rainey talks with Rebecca MacKay Allen, Senior Vice President of Global Innovation Partnerships at Dairy Management Inc., and Will Loux, Vice President of Global Economic Affairs for U.S. Dairy Export Council, about how U.S. Dairy Export Council and Dairy Management Inc's International Partnerships team up together to drive dairy sales internationally. We'll also get to hear about exciting new overseas products and where the future of exports is going. Tune in to find out!   To learn more about the national dairy checkoff and your local dairy checkoffs, please visit www.usdairy.com.

The United States continues to be a powerhouse when it comes to dairy exports.  2022 was another banner year according to Will Loux, Vice President of Global Economic Affairs for the U.S. Dairy Export Council.  Will 2023 be the same?  He talks to Pam Jahnke about how the value of the dollar, and inflation may change the trade environment. Wisconsin's getting ready to host the 2023 U.S. Championship Cheese Contest in Green Bay.  Over 2,200 entries are making their way to the state in the form of cheese, butter, yogurt and dry dairy ingredients.  Carrie Mess visits with one of the judges preparing for the big event.  She chats with Chad Galer. No one is immune to the impact of fluctuating interest rates, inflation and a potential recession - including agriculture.  What should your strategy be for 2023.  Pam Jahnke visits with Bill Moore, Chief Risk Officer for Compeer Financial, about tools producers should be investigating now.  Paid for by Compeer Financial.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Record milk prices seen in 2022 likely won't repeat themselves, as production increases and consumers grapple with an economic slowdown, according to members of the NMPF and U.S. Dairy Export Council's joint economics unit, in a Dairy Defined Podcast released today. But exports are on track to increase, and demand will likely be resilient as dairy remains must-have for buyers.“Consumers around the world still gravitate towards dairy, even when they're experiencing tighter economic situations,” said Will Loux, head of the team Vice President for Global Economic Affairs with NMPF and USDEC. “They ultimately view dairy as an essential item and will continue to consume it.”Loux discusses the global and domestic dairy outlook with NMPF's Chief Economist, Peter Vitaliano; Economic Research and Analysis Director, Stephen Cain; and the joint economic team's newest member, Economic Policy and Global Analysis Coordinator, Allison Wilton. 

Do you wonder about the impact of your dairy checkoff investment? Join farmer hosts in conversations about how local and national checkoff works together to build dairy sales and trust in today's changing marketplace. Episode 19 - What Happened With Dairy Promotion In 2022? Hear from Pennsylvania dairy farmer and Dairy Management Inc. Chair Marilyn Hershey and Missouri dairy farmer and National Dairy Board Chair Alex Peterson discuss the 2022 checkoff's dairy promotion... Here is a breakdown of this episode: 0:40 - DMI's Scott Wallin introduces Dairy Management Inc. Chair Marilyn Hershey and National Dairy Board Chair Alex Peterson.3:09 - How checkoff is reaching Gen Z through gaming and online marketing5:16 - How checkoff tells dairy's sustainability story to consumers7:28 - How large restaurant and retail partnerships are driving dairy sales and innovation8:12 - Checkoff's new collaboration with the Mayo Clinic and dairy's role in health and wellness9:34 - How U.S. Dairy Export Council is driving sales in dairy exports13:03 - How checkoff is piloting new milk programs in schools with smoothies and bulk milk15:17 - Dairy consumption in the U.S. is on the rise17:29 - The future of dairy promotion19:34 - How farmers can get involved in dairy promotion Listen to the Your Dairy Checkoff Podcast here.

Intellectual Property: Has Gruyere cheese suffered genericide, such that it is no longer entitled to protection as an appellation of origin? - Argued: Fri, 09 Dec 2022 20:6:29 EDT

Interprofession du Gruyere v. U.S. Dairy Export Council

Trying to reach dairy consumers outside of the U.S. is the major goal of the U.S. Dairy Export Council.  Stephanie Hoff talks with USDEC CEO, Krista Harden, about the challenges they're moving through to keep U.S. dairy moving internationally.There's a lot of conversations focused on electric vehicles, in fact some states are essentially mandating electric transportation in the future. Electric vehicles, however, may not be feasible for some high horsepower industries - like agriculture.  Stephanie Hoff talks about it with Michael Newland from the Propane Education and Research Council (PERC). On-farm research will be the center of attention during the UW-Discovery Farms Winter Conference next week. Ag & Water Quality Program Manager Amber Radaatz, tells Pam Jahnke that this year's conference is really a combination of two years worth of field research.  UW Discovery Farms kept on farm research happening during the pandemic, and are just now able to share all the data. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Dairy Educator Martin Mangual Interviews President and CEO of the US Dairy Export Council, Krysta Harden. We discuss trends, lessons learned, and upcoming opportunities in the dairy global markets.

In this episode, meet Megan Sheets, the Senior Director of Strategic Development and Insights at the U.S. Dairy Export Council. Exports play a huge role for the dairy industry as 18% of the U.S. milk supply is exported, with 95% of the world's population living outside of the U.S. There are specific global trends driving dairy demand today that allow for endless opportunities moving forward.

In this episode, hear from Marilyn Hershey, Chair Dairy Management Inc. and dairy farmer from Pennsylvania about the importance of the U.S. dairy industry on a global scale. One out of every six tankers of milk leaves our borders to provide critical nutrition worldwide. Marilyn offers perspective from involvement with DMI on the U.S. Dairy Export Council and as a dairy producer.

Tune in as we visit with Krysta Harden, President and CEO of US Dairy Export Council. Krysta provides us a better understanding and perspective of dairy exports and the impact they have on the US dairy industry.

The Ocean Shipping Reform Act is now law, but much more is needed to ensure reliable exports of U.S. dairy products to the overseas markets that represent the industry's future, said Tony Rice, trade policy manager for NMPF and the U.S. Dairy Export Council, in a Dairy Defined podcast released today. “Our international customers demand U.S. dairy products,” said Rice. “Our competitors, mostly the EU and New Zealand, they've shown that they're not going to be able to keep pace in the coming years. So it makes all the more important that these supply chain issues get ironed out, and hopefully sooner rather than later.”Rice explains the complexities of the challenges facing U.S. port traffic, why additional public policy changes are essential, and how NMPF is leading agriculture's efforts for change. 

On this episode, we discuss the state of the agricultural and pet feed industry with Constance Cullman and Mallory Gaines of the American Feed Industry Association. We also discuss the Ocean Shipping Reform Act's impact on agriculture with Krysta Harden, President and CEO of the U.S. Dairy Export Council and Jim Mulhern, President of the National Milk Producers Federation. We continue the discussion in this week's Meat Monitor segment, as we hear about the Act's expected impact on red meat exports from Travis Arp, Assistant Vice President of Export Services for the U.S. Meat Export Federation. In this week's Market Talk report, Jesse Allen discusses President Biden's proposed national fuel tax holiday and in “Bushels and Cents,” Ray Bohacz is talking amperage draw in electric seed monitors. The episode also features the music of singer/songwriter Zachariah Malachi. Timestamps Intro/news: 0:00 Goatlifeclothing.com advertisement: 5:36 Constance Cullman and Mallory Gaines, American Feed Industry Association: 5:55 Concept AgriTek advertisement: 18:42 Krysta Harden (U.S. Dairy Export Council) and Jim Mulhern (National Milk Producers Federation): 19:15 Travis Arp, U.S. Meat Export Federation: 29:43 Jesse Allen, Market Talk: 32:09 Ray Bohacz, “Bushels and Cents”: 39:29 Gateway Seed Co. advertisement: 40:58 Zachariah Malachi: 41:28

U.S. Dairy Export Council is applauding the signing of the Ocean Shipping Reform Act by President Biden. The enactment of the Ocean Shipping Reform Act sets in motion a series of new rules and regulations regarding ocean carrier practices that the Federal Maritime Commission must implement over the course of the next year. U.S. Dairy Export Council CEO Krysta Harden says last year, shipping challenges resulted in over $1.5 billion in increased export costs and lost opportunities. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The National Milk Producers Federation and the U.S. Dairy Export Council are praising the recent launch of a USDA partnership with the Northwest Seaport Alliance aimed at easing congestion and restoring reliable shipping access to ag exporters in the United States. A primary piece of the new initiative is the implementation of a 49-acre “pop up” site in Seattle that provides access to both dry and refrigerated containers for ag exports heading to overseas destinations on shipping vessels. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The National Milk Producers Federation and the U.S. Dairy Export Council welcome the USDA plan to offer additional support to agricultural exporters through the Commodity Container Assistance Program. The initiative will provide funding from the Farm Service Agency to exporters to reduce the costs of sourcing containers at the Oakland and Seattle-Tacoma “pop-up” port locations.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On April 25, a group of agricultural stakeholders, led by the Almond Alliance of California (AAC), sent a letter to the United States Department of Agriculture, the Department of Transportation and other Federal agencies requesting they convene a meeting between agricultural exporters and ocean carriers to address the current trade imbalance. Other signatories included California Farm Bureau; Western Growers Association; National Milk Producers Federation; U.S. Dairy Export Council; Western United Dairies; and the California Walnut Handlers Alliance. Working with the Alliance, the Almond Board contributed to the letter by developing data regarding the economic impacts of the present situation and the current state of the industry. On May 4, California Senators Feinstein and Padilla referencing the AAC-led effort, sent a letter, to 13 ocean carriers requesting they provide the necessary equipment for exports and for them to engage with the affected industries to develop a resolution to the export delays.

As its competitors move to constrain – if not roll back – their own dairy production, United States dairy producers are well-positioned to become the preferred supplier to growing international dairy markets, two top dairy economists said in an NMPF podcast.New Zealand and the European Union, the main U.S. competitors on global dairy markets, aren't as focused on sustainably feeding the world as the United States, said William Loux, vice president of global economic affairs for the U.S. Dairy Export Council.“You see countries like the Netherlands driving programs to reduce dairy cows by 30 percent,” he said. “That's not really necessarily in the spirit of, ‘Hey, there's a globe right now that is demanding dairy products. How do we do that sustainably?' which I think is the U.S. perspective. So, as we go forward, the US really should be the one to capture this global dairy demand as we increase our exports overall.”Loux is joined in the podcast by Stephen Cain, director of economic research and analysis at NMPF. Cain detailed current trade challenges U.S. producers face, including continued supply chain difficulties involving China. “We're still having some issues getting product out of the West Coast of the United States, but a growing issue that's taken place over the last six weeks has really been the buildup and the backlog into Chinese ports, especially outside Shanghai,” Cain said. “COVID-induced lockdowns throughout the region have grown in number and intensity and the amount of people that are being locked down. That's effectively shut down some of these ports.”

New figures released this week by the International Monetary Fund were cause for concern around the world as the potential for increased food costs is weighed against potential political uncertainty that might result. Dan Glickman, the ag secretary for the majority of the Clinton administration, joins Newsmakers to discuss what the report means and what the U.S. can do about it. Then, an esteemed panel – oilseed industry analyst John Baize, Krysta Harden with the U.S. Dairy Export Council and former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Agencies for Food and Agriculture Kip Tom – discuss what they're hearing about global food prices, supply chain issues, and the potential for role of the 2022 crop year in the conversation.

Joel Hastings of DairyBusiness News interviews Krysta Harden, President and CEO of the U.S. Dairy Export Council after completing her successful first year. In the discussion, they talk about the notable highs of 2021, the lows, how to move forward with a strong cornerstone on sustainability issues being a focus to our foreign buyers. Harden talks about everything from the Ukraine crisis to what the long-range future of U.S. dairy exports look like. And, she discusses USDEC's positive response to the Ocean Shipping Antitrust Enforcement Act. Her passion for the industry is evident in this podcast and it is a must-listen!

In this episode of Your Dairy Checkoff Podcast, Mississippi dairy farmer Michael Ferguson and Idaho dairy farmer John Brubaker discuss the importance of exports with Krysta Harden, CEO and President of U.S. Dairy Export Council. In 2021, 18% of all milk produced in the United States was sold outside of the country. U.S. Dairy Export Council works to establish relationships with international consumers and builds markets for U.S. milk.  Dairy exports have evolved to meet global demands for high-quality, high-value dairy products. The work of U.S. Dairy Export Council is driven by dairy farmers to build trust and sales across the world which impacts all dairy farmers throughout the country. Learn more from Krysta Harden and dairy farmers who have personally been involved with U.S. Dairy Export Council's mission to enhance demand for U.S. dairy products   To learn more about the national dairy checkoff and your local dairy checkoffs, please visit www.usdairy.com.

William Loux, with the U.S. Dairy Export Council, giving an estimate of losses in export sales this past year due to port bottlenecks and other transportation issues.   See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bottlenecks at U.S. ports and their impact on agricultural exports took center stage at the National Press Club last week, with a webinar sponsored by the National Milk Producers Federation, the U.S. Dairy Export Council, and Agri-Pulse. This week's podcast features Krysta Harden, president and CEO of USDEC, moderating a panel from the webinar featuring USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack; John Porcari, the Biden Administration's Supply Chain Ports Envoy; Reps. John Garamendi (D-CA) and Dusty Johnson (R-SD), co-sponsor of a House of Representatives ports bill. Vilsack at the panel announced a new initiative adding access for U.S. agricultural exports at the Port of Oakland. Vilsack also noted the importance of the public understanding that ports backlogs don't only affect shipments of consumer goods. “We hope to be able to make sure that people understand this isn't just an import issue, it's also an export issue,” Vilsack said at the event.  “And the Department of Agriculture wants to be part of the solution.”

Despite policy challenges, family-run dairies continue to grow and succeed through dedication and faith, California dairy farmer Simon Vander Woude, the chairman of California Dairies Inc., first vice-chair of NMPF and a member of its executive committee, says in an NMPF podcast.“We begin every day acknowledging that what we have is not our own, it's a gift from the Lord, and we have to be good stewards of the gifts that He's blessed us with,” Vander Woude said. “We've been very blessed here.”That stewardship is expressed in many ways, from caring for the environment to seeking new opportunities to serve consumers in the United States and worldwide, he said. Vander Woude, who testified before a congressional subcommittee last year on the need to expand global market access, said that while domestic consumers continue to want dairy products, overseas sales are the key to harnessing dairy's growing productivity and international demand.  “If 20 to 30 percent of our milk products are going overseas today and our domestic market is pretty stable, it's growing at a smaller pace than what we can grow our milk markets,” said Vander Woude, who also sits on the board of the U.S. Dairy Export Council. “We need to continue to explore trade agreements with countries that will benefit the U.S. dairy industry.”   

This week's Open Mic guest is Krysta Harden, president and CEO of the U.S. Dairy Export Council. Harden began her tenure as leader of the group last year and is the third president of USDEC since it was formed in 1995 by Dairy Management Incorporated. Competition in global dairy trade is fierce, but Harden says U.S. farmers who produce high-quality products and ingredients are gaining global market share. She says shipping woes plague dairy exports and threaten to have a lasting impact on global customers. Internet shopping is helping grow demand for U.S. dairy as is a more health-conscious customer base worldwide. Harden is encouraged by a recent trade ruling against Canada's dairy policy and hopes the Biden administration can be aggressive in supporting additional trade opportunities for U.S. milk producers.

A resolution from the dispute panel regarding dairy tariff rate quota (TRQ) allocations has been reached, and the news is a bit, well, divisive. The panel’s decision includes the statement that because Canada’s reserving of access of 85 to 100 per cent of 14 separate TRQs for Canadian processors is “inconsistent with Article 3.A.2.11 (b),”... Read More

Mark O'Keefe, from the U.S. Dairy Export Council, joins us to talk about the historic rising of dairy exports in the U.S. and what challenges we are overcoming to see these increases. 

Overwhelming support received last week in the U.S. House of Representatives for badly needed shipping-policy reforms is a crucial step, but far from the only one needed, to ensure reliable exports of U.S. dairy products to growing overseas markets, said Tony Rice, trade policy manager for NMPF and the U.S. Dairy Export Council, in a Dairy Defined podcast.Since the Ocean Shipping Reform Act passed the House last week, “We are focused on keeping up that pressure and ensuring both in Congress and both with the administration that there are fixes out there and the fixes are not just a one-time or one-off, that these are going to be some fundamental reforms that are much needed in this industry to ensure that this situation doesn't happen again,” Rice said. Rice explains the complexities of challenges facing U.S. port traffic, with ships experiencing powerful financial incentives to quickly travel to Asia without carrying farm exports necessary to boost rural incomes and the U.S. economy. Rice also explains why public policy changes are essential, and how NMPF is working for full congressional package of reforms. 

Catching up with President and CEO of the USDEC, Krysta Harden about all things dairy. She spoke about what she's hearing from farmers to the best and most difficult countries to deal with. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

U.S. dairy products are increasingly competitive globally – a fact shown in surging export numbers, according to two top dairy economists in the National Milk Producers Federation's latest Dairy Defined podcast.“Global demand is fundamentally really strong right now,” said Wiliam Loux, the Director of Global Trade Analysis for the U.S. Dairy Export Council.  “Consumers within China are just wanting a lot of dairy. And Mexico, after a tough year with the COVID-19 pandemic and some economic issues, is recovering. Southeast Asia, the Middle East, all need product too.”Loux was joined by Stephen Cain, an economic analyst for NMPF and USDEC, who noted that, relative to its main global competitors, the United States may be best positioned to take advantage of further growth in international dairy markets.“The EU and New Zealand are facing substantial obstacles in growing their herd. We're the only one that has the capacity to add cows, add growth to meet that growing demand,” Cain said. “Our ability to meet that demand, and adding cows and adding production, is really going to help serve us in terms of the global impact of U.S. dairy on the marketplace.”

Monitoring trade policy is critical for the dairy industry.  Bob Bosold talks with Paul Bleiberg from the National Milk Producers Federation about what he's monitoring, and also asks if they've noticed any change at USDA since Tom Vilsack returned.  Vilsack had been head of the U.S. Dairy Export Council before returning to USDA. During the pandemic, Wisconsin's state parks saw a huge influx of new users.  It looks like that trend will continue according to Michelle VanLanduet from the WI State Parks.  Michelle Stangler provides the update. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Rural properties are red hot these days as more people seek their "space" in light of covid.  Josh Scramlin visits with staff from Whitetail Properties on how to stage your rural properties for the most value. There's a new leader at the U.S. Dairy Export Council and she's bullish on what's developing with China and the U.S. dairy industry.  Pam introduces you to Krysta Harden and what she's got her eye on with dairy exports. Saturday marks the 64th annual WBIA Bull Test Sale in Platteville.  But the sale will happen differently this year.  Josh Scramlin talks with the president of WBIA about this year's offerings and how they'll get it done. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Tom Vilsack, CEO of the U.S. Dairy Export Council give more insight as to why he is hopefully about the future of dairy. Steve Freese is the President and CEO of the WI Electric Co-op shared about going to Guatemala to help bring electricity to a village there.  Focus on Energy, Steve Craker talking about grain dryer tune up incentive.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This week's guest on Open Mic is the President and CEO of the U.S. Dairy Export Council, former Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack. While dairy policy improvements in the 2018 farm bill have helped the financial plight of many milk producers, Vilsack says it's the global trade front that presents the best opportunity for improvement to the bottom line. Vilsack hopes for a positive conclusion to a trade deal with Japan and says the Chinese market holds tremendous opportunity for U.S. dairy. Vilsack highlights global paradigms that could lead to greater demand for U.S. dairy products from both health conscious consumers and for feed for growing livestock herds.

Dairy-market issues are covered today, as we talk with Matt McNight of the U.S. Dairy Export Council. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Secretary Vilsack is now the President & CEO of the U.S. Dairy Export Council and he talks the issue of trade with Mexico & its effects on the dairy industry.

Today, Mike talks with Bob Dinneen of the RFA, Tom Vilsack with U.S. Dairy Export Council, and John Heisdorffer, with the ASA.

This week's guest on Open Mic is former USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack, President and CEO of the U.S. Dairy Export Council. After a year on the job at USDEC, Vilsack says dairy farmers are counting on folks in Washington to grow global market access and deliver better support programs for the country's dairy farmers. Vilsack says withdrawing from NAFTA would bring the worst possible outcome for agriculture and the dairy industry. He also discusses the upcoming farm bill and how failure to improve the current Margin Protection Program would bring more hardships on small and medium-sized dairy farmers. The Iowa Democrat offers his support for immigration reform and offers advice for candidates trying to win votes in rural America.