Podcasts about AMF

Ma formation pour les investisseurs autonomes: https://formation-traders360.mykajabi.com/inscriptionAbonnez-vous à mon infolettre Analyse360: https://traders360.ca/product/infolettre-analyse-360Pendant des décennies, devenir propriétaire était pratiquement la recette par défaut pour bâtir son patrimoine au Canada. Mais cette stratégie est-elle encore aussi avantageuse en 2026? Alors que le prix des maisons a explosé et que le coût d'être propriétaire continue d'augmenter, je pense que la prochaine génération ne va pas s'enrichir de la même façon que leurs parents. Dans cet épisode, je remets en question l'idée qu'il faut absolument posséder une maison pour devenir riche.Suivez-moi sur Instagram & TikTokIG: alextraders360TikTok: alexdemers360AVIS LÉGAL: Les propos de l'animateur ne doivent en aucun cas être interprétés comme une recommandation d'achat d'une action sur les marchés boursiers. Alexandre Demers n'est pas un conseiller financier et toutes les informations partagées dans ce balado ne reflète que son opinion personnelle. Consultez un professionnel accrédité auprès de l'AMF pour obtenir des conseils appropriés à votre situation.

Aujourd'hui, c'est une rediffusion de l'épisode Finscale, dans lequel je recevais Mark Kepeneghian, fondateur de Lise (anciennement Kriptown), pour revenir sur huit années d'un parcours hors norme : la création d'une nouvelle bourse européenne pensée pour les PME, bâtie sur la technologie DLT et un cahier réglementaire entièrement inédit.Nous avons parlé :De la genèse de Kriptown en 2017, née de l'intuition que la technologie Ethereum allait transformer durablement les infrastructures de marché.De l'obtention du statut PSAN en 2020–2021, qui a permis de lancer les premières opérations en actifs numériques pour financer startups et PME.De la vision inchangée depuis le départ : construire une véritable bourse nouvelle génération, malgré l'absence de cadre réglementaire à l'époque.De l'arrivée du régime européen “DLT Pilot Regime” et de l'agrément DLT TSS, qui permet à Lise de réunir en interne bourse et dépositaire central de titres, avec un règlement-livraison instantané sans intermédiaires.De leur positionnement unique sur la liquidité : un marché secondaire intégré, permettant aux investisseurs d'acheter-revendre rapidement et aux émetteurs de trouver un financement plus efficace.De la création d'analyses indépendantes semestrielles neutres pour les PME grâce à un partenariat avec Valutico, afin de résoudre le manque d'information et de stimuler la liquidité.De la volonté de rediriger l'épargne vers l'économie réelle, en facilitant l'accès des PME au marché et en simplifiant le parcours d'IPO jusqu'à 12 millions d'euros.Un échange, qui montre comment Lise entend transformer le post-marché, simplifier la chaîne d'intermédiation et redonner aux PME un accès transparent, rapide et efficace au financement coté.En fin d'épisode, la recommandation de Marc :Tous les épisodes Finscale mais en particulier celui avec Delphine d'Amarziti d'Euronext, le précédent épisode sur Kriptown, et l'épisode consacré à Spiko Glossaire des acronymes pour faciliter la compréhension de l'épisode:PSAN – Prestataire de Services sur Actifs Numériques : Statut réglementaire français (AMF) permettant à une entreprise d'offrir des services liés aux crypto-actifs, comme l'achat/vente, la conservation ou l'échange. DLT – Distributed Ledger Technology : Technologie de registre distribué (dont la blockchain fait partie). Elle permet de stocker et transférer des données ou des titres de manière transparente, sécurisée et sans intermédiaire central. DLT TSS – DLT Trading and Settlement System : Agrément européen du DLT Pilot Regime. Il autorise un acteur à combiner dans une seule plateforme les fonctions de marché réglementé (bourse) et de dépositaire central (règlement-livraison), avec exécution quasi instantanée.Liens utiles :Marc Kepeneghian: https://www.linkedin.com/in/kepeneghian/ Lise : https://lise.comValutico: https://valutico.com/***************************Finscale, c'est bien plus qu'un podcast. C'est un écosystème qui connecte les acteurs clés du secteur financier à travers du Networking, du coaching et des partenariats.

We’re excited to have Will Loux, senior vice president of global economic affairs for the U.S. Dairy Export Council, join us to share his presentation of the future of U.S. dairy exports. For years, the U.S. dairy export portfolio has leaned heavily on nonfat dry milk, skim milk powder, lactose and lower-protein whey products. But our exports are changing. In the latest episode of The Milk Check, host Ted Jacoby sits down with Will Loux to break down the changing U.S. export picture. In this episode, we cover: Why U.S. dairy exports are moving toward cheese, fats and higher-value proteins How domestic protein demand is pulling skim solids away from dryers Why more cheese may be produced partly to create additional whey protein How exports are absorbing a larger share of new U.S. cheese production Where Latin America offers room for additional cheese growth What it will take for U.S. butter exports to become more consistent and profitable The U.S. has the milk. It has new processing capacity. And it is capturing a growing share of international cheese demand. But growth creates new challenges. Are you ready to meet them? Listen to The Milk Check episode 104: Can the U.S. Keep Its Dairy Export Advantage? Also available on: Amazon Music, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and YouTube. Got questions? We'd love to hear them. Submit below, and we might answer it on the show. Ask The Milk Check Transcript: Ted Jacoby III: [00:00:00] Coming up on the Milk Check. Will Loux: What I’ve heard from folks in Europe and elsewhere is how do they manage the U.S. tsunami of exports that’s coming? And I think that, at the Export Council, it makes me excited, but it does mean we need to keep our strategies current. Ted Jacoby III: Welcome to the Milk Check from T.C. Jacoby & Co., your complete guide to dairy markets, from the milking parlor to the supermarket shelf. I’m Ted Jacoby. Let’s dive in. Ted Jacoby III: Today, we are very excited to have Will Loux, Senior Vice President of Global Economic Affairs for the U.S. Dairy Export Council joining us.  A few weeks ago I saw a presentation that Will gave that talked about where the U.S. dairy industry is going, especially from an international perspective. It was an absolutely fantastic presentation, and I couldn’t help but think that just this presentation alone would be an absolutely fantastic topic for our podcast.  I have a bunch of our traders joining us, many of our usual suspects, including: Ted Jacoby III: Diego Carvallo, Joe Maixner, Miguel Aragon, Mike Brown, all from our trading team. Guys, thanks for joining us. Will, thank you so much for joining us. It’s great to see you again. Will Loux: Good to see you, Ted. Thanks for having me on. Ted Jacoby III: Excited to have all of our listeners listen to this. Will, the floor is yours. Will Loux: Perfect. Well, thank you for having me, Ted, and glad to have so many people on here and another audience for this presentation. I’ve got some slides. For those of you like me who will listen to this podcast usually while driving, feel free to go check it out on YouTube. I am also gonna do my best to reference what is in those slides as best I can remember to do so. But what is the future of U.S. dairy exports? What we’ve seen, really over the last twenty-five years, has been this tremendous, consistent growth, in aggregate U.S. dairy exports. We just got May data, and what we saw was on an annualized basis over the last twelve months, the U.S. actually set a new record again. So our exports have never been higher than they are today. But that said, our exports look fundamentally different than what they did 20 years ago. Before, when we were getting started with exports, 75, 80% of our exports were really driven by nonfat dry milk, and low-protein whey products, and lactose. That’s been the vast majority of our portfolio for much of this time, and we’ve had a few different eras where we’ve seen U.S. cheese exports picked up, especially around 2014 when the world was short of milk and we saw U.S. cheese and butter go overseas. But then we saw that stagnate for a few years. Now, what we’ve seen since COVID has been this tremendous growth of these more value-add products, these specialty products. I believe the U.S. is moving towards a portfolio in the export market that looks a lot like cheese, fats, and proteins. And that’s gonna be the core of our exports, I think, going forward because the U.S. dairy industry is really kind of, I consider it an evolution rather than, like, a true revolution. But this is one of those facets that I think is really interesting to see is the U.S. has consistently been growing its exports, unlike a [00:03:00] lot of other supply origins. But this is one that I think as we go forward I’m really excited about. But it’s gonna change how we need to think about exports over the next few years. Ted Jacoby III: Will, it sounds like what you’re saying is not only are we seeing the total volume of exports go up, but the dollar per pound value is even going up faster because we’re switching away from that low-cost carb portfolio to a much higher-value protein, fat, et cetera portfolio. Fair to say? Will Loux: I think that’s exactly right. I think there are implications for that, too.  That if the U.S. is moving out of perhaps exporting as much skim milk powder or sweet whey because we’re instead making UF milk or cottage cheese or yogurt or high-protein whey, well, there’s still demand overseas for that sweet whey and for that skim milk powder. But now, it’s actually getting supplied by a few other countries, too. So, we do have to keep all of these things in mind. But to me, I think we’re moving up the value chain as the U.S., and what I’ve heard from folks in Europe and elsewhere is how do they manage the U.S. tsunami of exports that’s coming? And I think that, at the Export Council, it makes me excited, but it does mean we need to keep our strategies current with where we’re gonna go in the future. One of the things that I’ve noticed here over the last really few months but even going back to last year has been a real shift in how the U.S. dairy market is balancing itself. I would argue that for the last really 20 years, to be frank, but at least for the last 15 years, the U.S. dairy market has largely been balanced to domestic fat demand. Yes, we did see, certainly, exports of cheese grow over this time, so I don’t want to discount that as a butterfat-heavy product, but for the most part, what we’ve seen has been the U.S. has consistently balanced with where domestic demand for butterfat has grown, and then we’ve exported the skim solids largely in the form of nonfat dry milk and sweet whey overseas. What we’ve seen here over the last several years has been the U.S. switching from a traditionally balancing to domestic milkfat demand, where we’ve seen butter consumption grow, whole milk consumption grow. U.S. milk production, U.S. dairy production grew with that. And then, we exported the additional skim solids in the form of nonfat dry milk, sweet whey, high protein whey, lactose. Those products were the ones that we were really exporting. Now, what I think is happening is the U.S. is no longer really balancing to fat anymore. We’re in this precarious balance right now. We’re not quite balanced to protein yet, and we’re not quite balanced to the beef market yet because we still have high prices for protein. We don’t have enough of it to go around. We don’t have enough beef for the beef market to go around, but we also have more milk fat than the domestic market can consume. And so we’ve seen these exports really rise. So, I think what we’re seeing right now is the U.S. being pulled in different directions, and the U.S. exports as we go forward here over the next few years is in some ways at a crossroad as to which of these routes do we go. Do we swing back to balancing to milk fat, which would mean we’re probably short of protein, or do we start balancing more to protein, which means we’re gonna need to find homes for a heck of a lot more cheese and butter in the next few years. [00:06:00] Because to me, at least, if you look at the beef market, from a dairy farmer’s perspective, you are still seeing that incentive to add additional cows just based on the returns on the beef side of things. And because of that incentive to hold the dairy cows longer to get the additional black calf, also with that breeding the best of the best in the young stock, we are just seeing the largest milking herd since the 1990s and the lowest replacement herd since the 1970s. And everything we’re seeing on the beef cattle side of things would suggest this isn’t slowing down anytime soon. But from the U.S. perspective, I think what this means is we’re gonna continue to see more milking cows around, and those cows are getting more productive than ever before. And even as we’re seeing this surge in milk production, I think on a component basis, last year in in 2025 we were up 3.8%. This year we’re up not quite at 3%, but still pretty darn close. Even as we see this growth of milk, these additional black calves coming on the market, we actually still don’t see enough protein hitting the dairy markets right now. And so, what we’re seeing is even as we see this huge surge in cottage cheese production and yogurt production, my personal opinion is yogurt doesn’t get enough credit for this protein rally. It’s like 10X the volume of cottage cheese, but what we’re seeing right now is this pull of protein. I think this pull of protein is predominantly domestic. We’re seeing UF beverages, we’re seeing yogurts, we’re seeing cottage cheese, we’re seeing everything that whey protein can go into from cereals to snacks to beverages. All of that protein pull is basically sucking protein and skim solids that had been going to the export market back into the U.S. By virtue of that, we’re also seeing U.S. cheese production need to increase, not so much for the cheese demand that we’re seeing here in the United States, but rather for the whey demand that we’re seeing here as well. The cheese has really become that co-product of the whey stream. I think even conversations that I’ve had with U.S. manufacturers of, “How can I get more whey protein without building a new cheese plant” is part of the consideration. One of the things that we’ve looked at over this time has really been where is this protein in the United States going? Because we’ve seen U.S. milk production rise, U.S. milk protein production rise in the sense of protein out of the cow, but we still have less nonfat dry milk and skim milk powder than we had a year ago. What I’ve noticed over this time has been certainly the cheese vat continues to get first dibs on most of that protein. Even in the May data that we got out of USDA, you saw cheese production was up, even when nonfat dry milk was sitting at sky-high levels north of $2.00. What we’re really seeing right now is we’re pulling milk out of the dryers and either putting it into the cheese vat or putting it into these other high-protein products and the like. What that is doing is that’s shifting our export mix. So far this year, our exports of skim milk powder, amazingly, are flat somehow. But if [00:09:00] you look at our May exports of nonfat dry milk and skim milk powder, they were down 20%, and I think that’s reflective of that, and we were down last year. What we’re seeing has been the U.S. is moving out of some of these carb-heavy, as you talked about, Ted, to these more higher value uses for these products. And even nonfat dry milk production picked up in May, but it’s not that we pulled milk out of the yogurts or out of the cottage cheese or out of the natural cheese itself, it’s that we stopped making skim milk powder and instead made nonfat dry milk. This is really where we’re seeing this pull of protein, either in the form of beef necessitating more cows or necessitating more capacity to make whey proteins, milk proteins, UF products, or just high-protein dairy products. All of that pulled together is sending a, “Let’s go make more milk.” Contrasting that, you have cheese and fats, which at this point right now, and historically this isn’t too unusual, but it is something different than we’ve really seen over the last few years, has been this export push of cheese and dairy fats in the form of predominantly butter, AMF, and to a lesser extent whole milk powder. What we’re seeing here has really been this shift where right now I think we’re growing our milk production as fast as the international market can absorb our cheese and fats. Because if you look here, since COVID, what we’ve seen is about 36%, over a third of the new cheese that’s been manufactured in the United States, has gone to export. If you think about that historically, about 5% of the new cheese in the previous decade went to exports. And now we’re at 35%. And if you look at the last two years, it’s north of 65% has gone to exports. As we’re building these new cheese plants, in part for the whey, there is that eye towards, “Okay, where are we going with this cheese?” And it’s gotta be overseas. Within that, too, the United States is actually the one capturing what is a growing global market. It’s not just that the U.S. is flooding the market with less expensive cheese, it’s that global cheese demand is growing, and the U.S. is the one capturing that. Because if you look, since COVID, the U.S. has captured about 60% of that new cheese demand that’s happening overseas, and that’s really been coming from the United States. Europe’s grown their cheese exports too, so has New Zealand. Australia’s basically flat, but the rest of the world evens up. The difference here is that the United States is really the one capturing this demand growth because we have the milk, we have the cheese, and that’s really where I think the U.S. has managed to expand its footprint, be a more consistent exporter, and really break into new markets that it hasn’t before. But we’ve been in cheese for a while. Granted, it’s at a different scale today than what it has been. We were up 20% last year in cheese exports. This year we’re up about 25% so far this year. We continue to surge in our cheese exports. The difference that is new this time around is, fundamentally, that we’re seeing this expansion come not [00:12:00] just in cheese as our primary vehicle to export the fat and casein, but also in fat-heavy products, predominantly butter, but also AMF and whole milk powder, too. That you’re seeing the United States now, for every, load of high-protein beverages, you’re gonna have a load of cream that you’re gonna need to deal with, or multiple loads of cream that you’re gonna have to deal with, and that’s now going overseas. Domestic demand for butter is still going strong. Domestic demand for whole milk continues to grow. The difference is we’ve just grown production faster than that domestic demand. And so, you pull this all together, and I really think we’re seeing an evolution in our portfolio for exports. Cheese by value is now our biggest export product, and you’ve seen fats and proteins continue to grow within that portfolio, as well, from a value perspective. While we’ve seen nonfat dry milk, low protein whey, lactose, those have really been flat to declining over this timeframe. And so, if you look at that incremental growth that we’ve seen in our U.S. dairy exports since COVID, again, what we’ve seen is our two biggest stars during this period have been cheese and fats, and I think protein in the long run is still really optimistic to me. But you pull this all together, the U.S. is still gonna be a major player in skim milk powder, sweet whey, whey permeate, lactose. But if you look at where our exports are gonna grow in the future, those are really some of the key products. What do you all think about this as kind of a argument here for where our U.S. dairy exports are going? Joe Maixner: That’s been exactly what we’ve been discussing for the past six plus months, that our supply is going to continue to outpace the domestic demand. So 100% agree with everything you said in this, Will. I think that butter will continue to become a major player in the export market. Miguel Aragón: In my case, being out there in the trenches, I see this day in, day out. The penetration of U.S. cheese and butter, especially right now. We know the soaring ingredients, but cheese and butter especially, every day you could see it more and more in the marketplace. Something really interesting that you said at the beginning: If we’re gonna produce more cheese, we’re gonna have to find a place for it. We know the numbers, we see the numbers. It’s an amazing story. But right now, as we speak, that is replicating in Central America. You guys see it at the U.S. DEC. And I just came back from Colombia. The opportunity is there for us, as long as we keep doing what we’re doing now and looking at the market, adapting to the market, adapting to what the market is asking us for, and also replacing some of the product that is coming from Europe and New Zealand. But I agree with what you’re saying here 100%. Ted Jacoby III: Will, I’m gonna turn the question around on you a little bit. Is the global demand for butterfat there for us to continue to increase how much butter we’re exporting? And is the global demand for cheese there? Will that global demand keep increasing for those two products? Will Loux: From my perspective, it’s yes. What I find interesting over the last couple years has been that [00:15:00] cheese demand held up exceptionally well even during high inflation periods. Where we saw other dairy products actually feel a lot of the pressure internationally, cheese demand kept growing pretty much right on track. What we’ve seen here on the cheese side over the last couple of years internationally has been this acceleration in cheese demand, and I think some of that has to do with, as Miguel was saying, tremendous growth from our partners in Latin America. That’s been a key engine for U.S. dairy exports here over the last couple of years and, frankly, since the Export Council was founded about 30 years ago. But when we look at the opportunities abroad, I think that we still have a lot of untapped potential on the cheese side. I remain pretty optimistic about that. The other thing I’ll say, too, here is: I don’t think European milk production’s gonna keep growing at 3% a year. I don’t think you’re seeing the same investment in new cheese capacity. I think we’re seeing investment in Europe and New Zealand in new protein capacity, and that’s maybe another conversation. But I think the U.S., one, has the opportunity to capture what is a growing global market on the cheese side, and also capture market share on the cheese side. The butter standpoint has been interesting. Butter has typically been, internationally, one of the more price-elastic products. It’s one that we’ve seen when butter prices really skyrocketed, some of that may be allocation, but when butter prices were high, we did see international demand struggle. Conversely, when butter prices were low, like they are today in many ways, we’ve seen butter demand grow. And butter demand internationally is growing, not just out of the U.S., but globally. I think the question I have here with butter is less about can the U.S. compete in this market, but more, what is our price point relative to Europe and New Zealand. Because I think if you look at our butter exports, for much of last year we were probably a buck a pound below Europe. A lot of that butter was going into Europe, where coincidentally the tariff into Europe is about a buck a pound. I think my question is more crucially than can the U.S. capture growing demand for butter, it’s where do we grow our butter exports. And I, personally, think the U.S. should never be exporting really butter to Europe unless we get additional market access. I think the U.S. should be exporting butter to its higher value markets and partners, places like Mexico, like Central America, North Asia and Korea, Australia, the Middle East, assuming we can keep the strait open for a little while. But I still remain pretty optimistic that the U.S. can keep growing in those products. Some of it will be market share, and some of it will be new demand, particularly on the cheese side. Ted Jacoby III: Will, looking at this graph where it’s talking about, U.S. dairy exports by destination, there’s a big increase into Latin America since 2021. Will Loux: Yep. Ted Jacoby III: Is that fair to say most of that is cheese? Will Loux: It’s fair to say most of it is cheese. We have seen increases also in nonfat dry milk and skim milk powder exports to Latin America over this timeframe, too, but the big driver, I think especially post-COVID in Latin America, was, [00:18:00] one, that region was the first major region, I should say, where tourism increased to levels higher than what it was before COVID, and we continue to see pretty good economic performance in the region. The other thing I don’t wanna discount here, too, has also been the full implementation of CAFTA-DR, our trade agreement with many of the Central American countries came into full effect, and you’ve seen this real surge in demand from the region and collaboration with our local partners there, that we’ve really seen this growth in Central American demand and Caribbean demand. Most of that is cheese. More recently, there are also butter and AMF and so going there too, but cheese has been the engine on the Latin American side most recently. Mike Brown: Will, I’ve got a question. Anything in particular we in the dairy industry, and of course you at U.S. DEC, are watching as far as improving opportunities, but also possible disadvantages we may gain through trade. Will Loux: Yeah. Great question, Mike. I have a mix of optimism, and then probably a couple notes of caution on this. So from my optimistic take, a lot of these new agreements on reciprocal trade that we’ve signed with key partners around the world, some of these are incredibly exciting because these are markets we’ve wanted to have agreements with for a long time. In particular, Indonesia makes me very excited. I think if we are able to see that actually be implemented here soon, I would be even more excited. I think there’s still a question on when that gets fully implemented. Taiwan is another one. We are getting access into markets that we never had access to before. We’ll see when those are fully implemented but again, I am still pretty optimistic on where those have opportunities for the U.S. to build upon and get on an equal footing with our competitors in Oceania and in Europe. However, our competitors are not staying static. We see a new agreement here between the European Union and Mexico. We have an agreement between the European Union and Mercosur that gets them additional access, particularly in proteins. I think the U.S. cannot take its customers for granted. Especially as we look at places like Mexico, that’s one where competition is not going to go away. And when we’ve seen nonfat dry milk sit 75 cents plus above Europe, you’re gonna see customers start calling Europe and New Zealand and looking for alternative sources. Or when we have high-protein whey products that are in such demand domestically, are we making sure we’re contacting our customers abroad? Because what we’re seeing now is Europe is heavily investing in additional whey protein capacity. Even as the U.S. is the largest exporter of high-protein whey in the world, I think there are other origins that are coming for that. And so, when I look optimistically, it’s like, “Great, we get more market access.” But to some of the key questions that I have around like is the U.S. ready for the future of dairy exports, one of them is gonna be: How do we actually meet this international demand on the protein side, and are we gonna have the market access that we need to be able [00:21:00] to capture sales? As I look at the world market today, I have a ton of optimism for where the U.S. can really be the supplier of choice, but it’s not gonna be a straight line from here to there, even on the fats or even on the cheese. I think the last couple years, milk production’s been up so much, it’s allowed us to capture a lot of demand, but even those I think will bounce around. Mike, I don’t know if that answered your question, but that was where my head’s at these days. Ted Jacoby III: Everybody, we will be right back after these messages. Diego Carvallo: I’m Diego Carballo with T.C. Jacoby & Co.. T.C. Jacoby & Co. specializes in international dairy markets. For new customers that haven’t done business with Jacoby, I would tell them that we can provide them with many of the powders, dairy products that they consume, not only with the physical product, but we can also help them mitigate their risk. We know dairy. We know the main players. We know the main providers for the whole value chain. We are one of the strongest players in the U.S. market because we have contact all the way from the farmer moving the liquid milk all the way to the end users that buy the end products. I am Diego Carballo with T.C. Jacoby & Co., and we bring dairy to the world. Will Loux: Ted, maybe what do you think if we go through a couple of these questions and have a little debate? Ted Jacoby III: All right. We’ll ask our team. Number one, does the U.S. have the necessary market access and global reach to capture sales opportunities in a multipolar world? Will Loux: And maybe I’ll clarify what I mean by multi-polar world. Ted Jacoby III: Great idea. Will Loux: Cause what I mean by that is if you look at global dairy trade leading up to COVID especially, from 2010 to 2020, China was the engine of that global dairy import demand growth. They accounted for 40% of that growth. These days, I’m not particularly optimistic China’s gonna be the engine. I think China will be an important import market, for sure. And I think they’re still gonna need fats, they’re still gonna need proteins, but they’re growing their own domestic supply, particularly of commodities. So, what I think the future looks like from a demand perspective is collective growth. Latin America, Southeast Asia, Middle East, North Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa even, I think there will be a lot of countries growing that collectively equal what China was doing before. But we’re gonna have to play in a lot of markets. So, the question to you guys then is: Do we have the reach and access to be able to compete in a lot of different places, or what does that look like for the U.S.? Because China is not gonna be the engine of global dairy demand here over the next decade, we’re gonna have to compete in a lot of different markets. In the previous decade leading up to COVID, you saw a lot of the New Zealand milk production, an increasing percentage was going to China, which opened up opportunities for us in Southeast Asia and the Middle East and others.  As we look at this next era of dairy exports, do we have the market access? Do we have the global reach and infrastructure to be able to capture sales in a lot of different markets [00:24:00] around the world? Diego Carvallo: That’s a good question. If we start with the premise that the U.S. is not gonna desperately need to export nonfat, I would say that it’s not gonna be that difficult to find new markets. The U.S. is not gonna have to fight to move additional volumes like they need to do for products like butter. Where do we take the skim milk powder that we’re currently making if China is not a huge buyer anymore? There’s plenty of demand still to be covered in other regions of Southeast Asia in other regions in Latin America, where we should have a good footprint and where we should have some advantages when it comes to freight. I would say the main markets where we have to gain market share are gonna be definitely Central America, the Caribbean and Latin America because of all of the advantages when it comes to freight and the relationship and other factors. The market where we’re gonna fight with the rest of the origins is gonna be Southeast Asia, we may need to go there and fight with price, with aggressive pricing, and we may need to compete even with China, ’cause we’re hearing that even China has been exporting product to that region in the past year. There’s gonna be some markets where we are positioned to gain market share and others where we’re gonna have to compete in price. Ted Jacoby III: Miguel, what do you think? With cheese and butter, do we have the necessary market access and global reach? Miguel Aragón: We do have the necessary market access. Our products are welcome where we are taking them. Our issue is more like, the cheeses that we produce at scale, cheddar and color cheddar, are not necessarily the cheeses that our markets are asking for. We need Gouda, we need Monterey Jack, we need Sadero, we need Manchego. We need the help of our partners, our plant partners, to adapt and to see the opportunity of the cheeses that those markets ask for. And I’m in particular about Latin America. But then again, that’s a big market.  U.S. cheeses are well-received. We do have places to go with it. We just have to get better at exporting. U.S. DEC does a really good job at helping us get into those markets, vet the customers and teach about the products. We are doing the right things. We just need to do it a little bit better. We do have places to go with that extra cheese. Ted Jacoby III: Miguel, do you think there’s a lot of underserved regions in Central and South America? In other words, are there a lot of customers who the only reason they’re not buying and importing more U.S. cheese is because they don’t know who to buy it from, they don’t have the contacts? Miguel Aragón: I do. In the last trips that I made, especially to the northern part of South America, colombia, Peru, Ecuador, there is demand. It just reminds me of Mexico 15, 20 years ago. They don’t know who to buy it from. They don’t know that we make it. They don’t know that we have the variety that we have. It’s an education. We have to work, harder at marketing our products down there. But there is a place. There is definitely a place. There is a market. Ted Jacoby III: Thanks, Miguel. All right, Joe, I got a question for you. Can the U.S. export butterfat products consistently and in a [00:27:00] profitable manner? Joe Maixner: I think we’ve started showing that we can export consistently. Numbers have been pretty consistent and have been growing throughout the year. A profitable portion probably remains to be seen. We’ll always have to be aggressive as we’re entering into new markets ‘ cause we’re gonna have to find a way to penetrate into markets that have been historically dominated by Europe or Oceania with a product that does not look like Europe or Oceania’s product. The easiest way to do that, obviously, is to, for lack of a better term, buy our way into the market to people to try the product. But once our product is in there and they realize it’s a consistent quality butter, I think that we certainly have the opportunity to be profitable long-term. Realistically, exporting butterfat consistently makes everybody more profitable in the U.S. because it pushes fat offshore, which helps our butter price, ultimately, domestically. Will Loux: When I look at exporting butterfat profitably, for us, especially at the Export Council, it’s been one of those things that the U.S. for the longest time hasn’t had butter basically to export. When we’ve gotten long, we’ve found places to clear it. I think what’s changed this time around has been that it seems like with the pull of protein, that we’re gonna have at least some butter available long-term. The question that I still have is where are the best places for us to invest? And even as an Export Council, where are the best places for us to invest our resources into trying to make sure that customers even know that the U.S. has butter available to export, while also trying to find ways of helping U.S. exporters navigate different tariffs than they’ve traditionally had to export, making sure the product specs meet it, and then also trying to get new market access in places that, for a while we’ve seen a lot of trade agreements that thankfully got the U.S. access in cheese and in milk powders, and sometimes butter was in there, sometimes it wasn’t. And so how do we get additional access into that? I look at the U.S.-Japan phase one, that we got additional cheese access, I think we could use some additional butter access into Japan. I’m pretty optimistic on this one. I don’t know if we’re there yet, but I think it’s gonna be isolating which markets are going to be the most profitable for us. I’m probably less optimistic that we’re gonna be consistent in exporting butter here in the next couple of years. But long-term, I think it’s undeniable that the U.S. is gonna have to go in this direction eventually. Ted Jacoby III: Why are you less optimistic in the short-term? Will Loux: I’m a little optimistic in the short-term because we have been exporting effectively double the butter exports we have been. We’ve seen that gap between the U.S. and international markets close quite a bit. Inventories are pretty low. The milk fat test, until May, which surprised me a little bit, had been slowing down as farmers adjusted rations. If we get to the point where butter is $1.40, $1.50, I’m not sure it always makes sense for the farmers to pay for the incremental increase in feed inputs to boost the butterfat test to the [00:30:00] extent that would boost our exports. We may find ourselves tighter in butter in the fourth quarter because we’ve exported our way back to balance. And to me, it looks like where cheese was 15 years ago: That we are on the path towards being a consistent exporter, but we’re often still going to prioritize our domestic market. From the U.S. perspective, I think our butter looks like cheese did 15 years ago, where we’re often export competitive, but not always. Joe Maixner: Will, basically, you have summed up exactly what I’ve been saying for a while, where the butter export opportunity will be cyclical because we will get super competitive, which will drive our domestic price up, which will take us out of the market, and then in turn, cause a surplus of domestic butter to show up in the market, which will then collapse the price and make us super competitive again in the export market. We’re still early enough in the phase that we’re trying to figure out those cycles. I do think it’s cyclical. Overall, though, I do think we will be a consistent exporter. There’ll be a base, and it will ebb and flow, but I do think we will be a consistent exporter moving forward because as we’ve gained market share, we are getting loyal end-use customers in export markets that will consistently pay for our product. Will Loux: I 100% agree with that. I think it’s gonna be, where do we keep our consistent customers, and where are the opportunistic sales that maybe ebb and flow? That’s gonna be a multi-year process as that all shakes out as to where are our stickiest markets within all this? Mike Brown: You want those consistent customers. Jacoby, one of our jobs is helping people with those opportunities. So, they’re both important, but you still need that core base demand and respect for the product. And so, I have a question for you on this, Will. Let’s take butter. Butter’s a great example because the world is unsalted 82, we’re salted 80. I think Joe would attest: We’re seeing suppliers trying to be more flexible in making the product that meets that demand, yet on the other hand, if you’re gonna store a commodity, you gotta make the commodity that is the market product. What are you seeing as far as our adaptability to be that flexible supplier in the world market? What else do we need to do that maybe we aren’t currently doing? Will Loux: There certainly has been a lot of progress made. From my perspective, you have a few different things. One is, of course, the salted and the fat content in the U.S. is different. It’s rare that we’re gonna be exporting from our inventories of 80 salted unless it’s just purely a price play. But what I think about when I think long-term export opportunities is really targeting the key channels that the U.S. is likely to win in first. And some of that’s food manufacturing. I think that’s where the U.S. can be really good, especially making bulk butter for export. I think it’s the first channel. But then it’s also making sure our formats meet the expectations of the customers. Because food manufacturing, I think, will only get us so far. The next phase where the U.S. can really excel in a couple markets is in the foodservice space and in the bakery space, in particular. We have next to no [00:33:00] capacity in the U.S. to make butter sheets, basically the stuff that you would use for croissants or bakery applications. Those are things we know we’ve heard from customers on how we can make products that are specifically geared towards that. In the long run, those are some of the issues. Some of it’s also from an Export Council perspective, educating customers on why U.S. butter is a different color, helping them understand how to utilize it. And even if they choose to use 80%, how to adjust their formulations to that to help understand, “Hey, this is a simple difference of 2% fat difference.” We can work in that space here, too. Long term, I think the U.S. needs to be sure, and this is something we’ve seen in all the other export products that we’ve seen over the years, is not solely trying to sell what we make here in the U.S. and say, “Hey, you should try this instead.” But instead figuring out what our customers are asking for and really making that product. And a lot of that goes down to also the formats and trying to move beyond just bulk butter for further processing into really targeted markets with those specific products. Ted Jacoby III: Joe, do you think the butter industry will invest in those things to increase our capabilities to deliver what the customer wants? Joe Maixner: I think eventually they may have to if our fat components continue the direction that they’re going. Some of the forward thinkers will be the first to adapt, and they’ll be the beneficiaries of investing in some further processing type manufacturing to be able to account for that. Cause at the end of the day, the profit’s in the value add. It’s not in selling bulk.  If there’s production capacity, and there’s space to do the addition, and somebody has the foresight to take the chance on it, I think that the payoff is there. Because if you get into that food service type packaging or laminated butter sheets or you get into a product that nobody else is making, that makes you very sticky in that market. You own that market. Will Loux: Even as we’re talking about butter here, we’ve got to think of other, fat-heavy products that could actually play really well in the international market. I tend to think whether it’s, like a UHT cream product, I know there’s always interest in like a frozen cream product. That’s a hard thing for the U.S. to make in some ways. I think UHT creams, we continue to see grow even as we see UHT milk itself actually decline globally. But we’re seeing real interest in that food service sector of, “Hey, let’s get whipping creams that are really targeted towards some of these international markets.” As much as for the U.S. it’s geared around, “Okay, what’s the most storable form of fat?” I think that’s step one, to find a way to export it. But step two is really what are these value-add fat-containing products that we can actually be targeting and competing in as well. And then I think balancing to like an AMF or a whole milk powder, but then using our butter and creams for the value add opportunities. Ted Jacoby III: I agree. Joe Maixner: Let’s not forget cream cheese, either. Cream cheese internationally has been phenomenal. That has plenty of trajectory to keep going. Miguel Aragón: I [00:36:00] must agree 100% with what Joe was saying on cream cheese. We are seeing phenomenal requests for cream cheese throughout Latin America, now in Asia. As what you were saying about channels, Will, we are now working with retailers in Central America with butter. Right now, it’s food service packaging going into retailers, but I think that’s a very interesting thing happening because once those brands of U.S. manufacturers start showing up in the retailers, I think we’re gonna have a better pool of U.S. butter. Ted Jacoby III: I agree, Miguel. Will, I think we should move on to the next couple of questions.  – I’m gonna read them both out because I think they’re very related. The first question is, can the U.S. grow cheese exports fast enough to keep up with whey protein demand. And then the second question is, will the U.S. have the protein to supply both the rising domestic and international consumption? I’ll answer the Second question first, which is, my dad, one of the things he drove into us as traders was, at the end of the day, everything’s a matter of price. Which means supply and demand will be regulated by what the price of protein is in the global market. I think it’s fair to say Europe has a much greater ability to add whey protein processing than the U.S. does because a smaller percentage of the whey offtake from cheese plants in Europe is currently being processed into whey protein. So, we will see some pushback there. But in the end of the day, that’s simply gonna self-regulate over what that global price is. My prediction is, can the U.S. grow cheese exports fast enough to keep up with that whey protein demand? I think we are reaching a point where the U.S. is consistently priced where the world market is priced for cheese, and I think that is going to change the way new cheese plants get built because we have had pushback for for 40 years. It’s exactly what Miguel has been talking about, is you don’t make the cheese that we want. Well, if we’re consistently now priced properly into the international market, my challenge for the cheese industry is someone needs to build a plant that supplies the international market with what they want, because we’ve arrived at the point where we’re gonna be consistently competitive now, and that risk becomes worth it. Miguel, do you agree? Miguel Aragón: Totally. I couldn’t have said it better. The market is there; it’s waiting for us to take more of it, but we need the right product now. Ted Jacoby III: And I think that whey protein demand may actually drive someone to do it.  What do you think? Will Loux: I agree with everything you’re saying. I think these are two inextricably linked pieces. Right now the signals are such: “Make more whey protein capacity” is clear. There’s also an element of “make more MPC capacity” or “make more capacity with the skim stream targeting proteins” as well. I think what’s holding back some of this capacity to date is probably much more the profitability on the cheese and on the fat side, and where those prices are at. From the dairy farmer perspective of if they’re investing is, the dairy farmer getting the price signals on the protein side? Because right now they’re getting the [00:39:00] price signals on the cheese side and on the fat side, and those are saying not as much to grow. These all need to be put into the spectrum of like, if we successfully grow our cheese exports and keep that international price relatively firm and grow demand abroad for cheese, and grow demand abroad for fats, it’s clear to me the protein demand seems pretty much insatiable here in the U.S. I think there’s a ton of untapped demand internationally, especially as GLP-1s start launching internationally. Like, there is a lot of international demand that I don’t think the U.S. should lose sight of, particularly with regards to whey proteins and milk proteins and all these other products. But it comes down to: can we grow our exports of cheese and butter, not just where we’re setting the global price for those products, but finding ways to make that stream profitable internationally, just as we’ve made the protein stream now incredibly profitable from a whey protein perspective. Folks are gonna come, particularly in Europe, as you said, I think they’re manufacturing over a million metric tons right now of sweet whey in Europe. Some of that’s gonna go to high-protein whey products. We’re gonna have more competition in that space. We’ll see what the price ends up being. All of these things are inextricably linked. And when I think about the mandate here at the Export Council, it’s like, how do we grow those cheese, those fat, and those protein exports, to keep that profitably moving and continue that investment? Because demand’s there for protein, and we’re seeing good demand internationally for cheese. We’re moving the fat overseas. But how do we do that in the most valuable way possible, I think is really what’s gonna be that next era of U.S. dairy exports. Joe Maixner: Will, I’m gonna ask you a question, ‘ cause I’m gonna push back a little bit. You said that farmers aren’t seeing the signals because of cheese and fat. You don’t think a $17 plus Class III and an $18 Class IV basically for the next year, plus your return on beef, plus your cheap inputs on feed is not enough to get the farmers to expand? Will Loux: Oh, I think they will continue to expand. When the nonfat dry milk price shot up, I think that was a reflection that we were short on protein. That we pulled so much out of the dryer, that was that reflection. But I think as Mike even said on one of your previous podcasts, that it was really shown in the PPD rather than necessarily in the protein price. I don’t mean necessarily they’re not getting the signal, it’s just some of it’s our pricing system is a convoluted signal. Ted Jacoby III: Will, you’re speaking to the choir. Mike Brown: I’m gonna have to quote you on that one. Ted Jacoby III: I’m gonna take this opportunity to say, Will, thank you so much for joining us today. This has been a fantastic discussion. I hope you come back soon and join us again, because we always love having you on our podcast. Will Loux: Always fun being with you guys. Thanks for having me on. Miguel Aragón: Bye, guys. [00:42:00] End Commercial: Mike Brown: For one part of the supply chain to be successful, everyone has to be. My superpower is practical application of data and analysis. I believe firmly that Jacoby’s success is because we help our suppliers and our buyers be successful. I’m Mike Brown, and I love working for T.C. Jacoby & Co. because I get to help people make their businesses more successful.

Ma formation pour les investisseurs autonomes: https://formation-traders360.mykajabi.com/inscriptionAbonnez-vous à mon infolettre Analyse360: https://traders360.ca/product/infolettre-analyse-360J'ai vendu la totalité de mes actions de Telus avec une perte de quasiment 50%. Dans cet épisode, j'explique pourquoi j'ai décidé de vendre mes actions au lieu de grossir ma position. Je parle également du coût de cette erreur et où j'ai décidé de redéployer mon capital.Suivez-moi sur Instagram & TikTokIG: alextraders360TikTok: alexdemers360AVIS LÉGAL: Les propos de l'animateur ne doivent en aucun cas être interprétés comme une recommandation d'achat d'une action sur les marchés boursiers. Alexandre Demers n'est pas un conseiller financier et toutes les informations partagées dans ce balado ne reflète que son opinion personnelle. Consultez un professionnel accrédité auprès de l'AMF pour obtenir des conseils appropriés à votre situation.

The next decade of global dairy growth may look very different from the last one. For years, much of the world's additional milk came from pasture-based systems. New Zealand added acres. Production expanded across parts of South America, Australia and Europe. But those regions are not growing the way they once did. Today, the next unit of milk is increasingly coming from grain-fed systems. That shift could put the U.S. in the driver's seat for global dairy markets over the next 5 to 10 years. In this episode of The Milk Check, host Ted Jacoby III and the Jacoby team are joined by Scott Briggs of Bridgecape Commodities. We dive into: Why marginal milk growth is shifting from grass-fed to grain-fed systems What environmental policy and structural inefficiencies mean for European milk production Why China is shifting from building milk supply to creating higher-value dairy products Why the U.S. will need to become a more consistent exporter of butterfat Plus, beef income has helped support dairy farm margins and encouraged producers to breed more cows to beef. What happens if beef prices fall? The cows are ready. The plants are being built. What's next for U.S. dairy? Listen to The Milk Check episode 102: Who Wins the Next Decade of Milk Production? Also available on Amazon Music, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and YouTube. Got questions? We'd love to hear them. Submit below, and we might answer it on the show. Ask The Milk Check Intro commercial [Text not included.] Ted Jacoby III: Coming up on the Milk Check. Ted Jacoby III: You’ve got the U.S. dairy industry now in a position where even the worst-case scenario continues to be a threat for Europe or the rest of the world from a milk supply standpoint. Ted Jacoby III: Welcome to the Milk Check from T.C. Jacoby & Co., your complete guide to dairy markets, from the milking parlor to the supermarket shelf. I’m Ted Jacoby. Let’s dive in. This week, we are excited to have Scott Briggs from Bridgecape Commodities joining us. Scott lives in Australia and really understands what’s going on with dairy markets on that side of the pond. Scott, thank you so much for joining us. We’re excited to have you. Why don’t we start by having you tell everybody a little bit about yourself? Scott Briggs: Thanks very much for the intro, Ted. I’m Scott Briggs, Bridgecape Commodities, based down in Melbourne, Australia and work with a number of Asian and Oceanic consumers to try and understand global dairy markets and try and help them risk manage. Thanks very much for the opportunity to be a part of the podcast. Ted Jacoby III: Scott, thanks for joining us. We’re really excited to have you. We’re gonna have a little bit of a debate: How do U.S. dairy production costs compare to those in New Zealand, Europe, and China today? Do we think the U.S. is building a lasting competitive advantage? And what does that mean for the global dairy market over the next five years? Scott, I’ll start with you. You’re based down under. Do you think the U.S. Is developing a competitive advantage, or do you think New Zealand will continue to be in the driver’s seat? Scott Briggs: It’s a very big topic Ted, but I think the short answer is that yeah, the U.S. is really in a great position to drive global dairy markets over the next 5 to 10 years. One of the major things that’s changed probably since about 2015, we’ve been in a transition period where the marginal milk growth is not coming from a grass-fed system anymore, it’s coming from a grain-fed system. Between 2000 when a lot of global dairy markets started to deregulate and we had falling trade controls and those sorts of things, quotas in the EU eventually coming off, between 2000 and 2015, the marginal milk growth was really coming from a grass-fed system, be it New Zealand growing the number of acres that it planted or the number of acres that it farmed. Places like Uruguay or southern Brazil or Argentina growing quite strongly and other parts of Europe and Australia as well. So that was the driver of the growth, and that’s why we saw that volatility in global dairy markets driving back towards a grass-fed cost of production. But since then, those places have stopped growing and really the next unit of growth or the next liter of growth comes from grains and ultimately that does mean that the U.S. is in a great position to respond to the milk production needs of the world. At the end of the day, you’ve got the greatest exportable surplus of grains and you’ve got a fantastic platform to grow from. That’s the 10,000-foot view of why the U.S. is in the box seat. Ted Jacoby III: You mentioned that even New Zealand is starting to go towards a grain-based system. Could you tell me a little bit more about that? Scott Briggs: I would say that’s pretty incipient, Ted, but there’s certainly steps that are being taken in New Zealand that seem to mirror what Australia’s been doing for probably the last five to 10 years. You have a marginal cost of production that is grain-fed and it’s being led by the U.S. At the moment, if we looked at the margins in the U.S. for a dairy farmer, they’re pretty good given your beef situation. But if you were to remove that beef situation or that beef revenue, you’re probably at a pretty low income over feed cost. But that’s still a highly profitable milk price for a grass-fed system. And a lot of the fixed costs are already being paid off, be it the farmer’s labor the equipment on the farm all of those overheads, they’re already being paid off by a pasture fed system. So, there’s a huge marginal return for that extra liter of milk that comes out of a pasture fed system. If you look at the steps that have occurred in Australia and that are probably starting to come to New Zealand, it is a lot more shared housing in wetter areas, feed pads, dry feed pads. It's certainly not moving to the barn fed system that the States has got. More multiple calvers, if you like, to flatten out that milk curve. A lot more maize silage production, which just stores that little bit better and gives you more dry matter per acre as well. It’s these kind of marginal steps which have occurred a lot in Australia or even in some of our more grass-fed areas, and that are starting to occur in New Zealand. And some of the incentives that are being given, market-wise, in New Zealand to produce that shoulder milk or that additional milk are starting to respond with additional investment on farm. Ted Jacoby III: So, is maybe another way to put it that core pasture-based part of New Zealand dairy farming continues to be very profitable, but any marginal increase in milk production that would come from New Zealand, the cost of that marginal increase is probably the same or more likely probably less than the same marginal increase in milk production in the U.S.? Scott Briggs: Look, I would say that the marginal cost of production out of the States is pretty good. If you think that you’ve already got all the infrastructure paid for and it’s really just an additional growth there. But I think it’s more so the profit margins that sit in a pasture-fed system in New Zealand allow for that investment to try and get that little bit of extra milk as well. So, I wouldn’t say either or are better placed. It’s just that we do have a lot of low-hanging fruit in Oceania, if you like, to start moving into that kind of system. Ted Jacoby III: That makes sense. That makes sense. Mike Brown (2): One thing I think about New Zealand and why the system is the way it has been historically has been your cost of concentrates or grains hasn’t always been as competitive. You lead world price in a lot of cases, and your location makes you very competitive. Your dairymen have more room to pay some of those higher costs for that marginal production. So my question is the strong world price has a fair amount to do, obviously , with everybody’s growth, but in your case when you look at that difference in marginal cost versus that pasture based cost, are you more sensitive to that marginal change in price than maybe some other markets just simply because your feed costs are higher? Scott Briggs: Let’s have a look at world milk prices at the moment. The U.S. at $17 a counterweight, if you like, $16.50, $17 a counterweight. That’s low on your range. On the New Zealand numbers, that’s coming out at a $9.50 dollars per kilo in New Zealand dollars, which is a historically pretty high milk price. So, they do have that ability to just bring in PKE exports. One of the major sources of additional feed or additional milk growth in New Zealand is this palm kernel expeller which comes off of the palm kernel crushing. It’s kinda like soybean meal, if you like that they bring in from Indonesia and other palm kernel or palm crushing countries. Fonterra had placed limits on that for a long period of time because it was affecting the fat composition of the milk. Once they removed those limits, PKE imports went up 20% or 30% almost in one or two years. The last two seasons, New Zealand milk growth has been about 4% or 5% this year, and probably 2% or 3% the year before, so 6 or 7%. Nearly a third to a half of that has come from the additional energy that’s coming in the PKE. So it’s having a huge marginal impact on their growth, and it’s coming at a pretty low cost ’cause it’s a low-cost feed source. So, I think, Mike, going back to your question, they have that ability to grow because there’s such a lot of low-hanging fruit between that grass-fed cost of production, which is already paying for their farm, and the milk price that they’re getting paid, which is actually a marginal cost of production out of the U.S. Mike Brown (2): What kind of world fat price might change their incentive on PKE? We’re seeing a little bit of that here because it’s very expensive here, and people look at their marginal return. It isn’t, of course, near what it was when fat was $2.50. Do you think, depending where that world market settles, will that change the incentive to use PKE? ‘Cause in our case, it’s fat production is the real gain that you get compared to other alternative rations we feed. Scott Briggs: I think it’s seen more as just a bulk source of feed and source of energy- to get the cow up early in the season, Mike, and peak it as high as possible, and then to keep going on the shoulder. It’s a milk solids game rather than a tweak the fat percentage game. At $9.50 they’ll be feeding it. Mike Brown (2): Yes. Scott Briggs: $9.50 a kilo of milk solids they’ll be feeding it. Mike Brown (2): Oh, yes. Yeah. I would be feeding it here, too. Yeah. At that price for sure. Yeah. Ted Jacoby III: My thoughts immediately go to Europe. The U.S. is well-positioned for growth. New Zealand is building off a very profitable base, which insulates them and puts them in a very good position of at least maintaining their position in the global market. Where does that put Europe? Scott Briggs: Europe is an interesting situation where realistically I think that they’re gonna struggle for the main drivers of additional milk production. They seem to be struggling to add any additional land at a reasonable cost, whether it be to the feed base or to the dairy base. That’s obviously being driven by environmental policy, which is very different in Europe than it is say in the U.S. or even Latin America. So I think that they’re gonna struggle at that policy level to be able to keep driving forward. The other thing that does sit within Europe is that we’re only 10 years removed from quota coming off, and so we’re still in that process of losing milk production where we should in the more marginal areas, or from the smaller farms, or from the more marginal land, and trying to drive it into places like Germany or the Netherlands. And so whenever you’ve got a core base of pretty uneconomic sticky milk, it takes a fairly heavy price response to drive change in those farms. So down at the lowish milk prices that we’ve got globally at the moment and I say, I’m happy to debate that point. I think we’re at pretty low milk prices on the range since the end of COVID, particularly with the low feed prices. Where we are at the bottom of the price range, you’re gonna still struggle to get some of these European guys out given the subsidies that they’ve got. But that also means you’re not driving efficiency back into the system. So it feels to me like Europe’s gonna really struggle to meet the global needs and be a quick mover like the States has been. Probably the call-out on that one to me would be Russia. They’ve got probably huge settings if they wanted Russia and the Stans to really grow into dairy production. But it’s not gonna be something that’s being done for the rest of the world. I think it’s gonna be getting done for their part of the world and for China. Ted Jacoby III: Speaking of Eastern Europe, do you think Poland still has a lot of room to grow as well? Scott Briggs: I wouldn’t know the specific micro settings of Poland. It does seem like they are growing pretty well. If you look at the investments that are going into some of the Stans, eventually Ukraine and some of the other parts of the former Eastern Bloc, if you like, it does seem like there’s a lot of investment in Belarus still. It does seem like there’s a lot of investment going in there to help feed parts of the world that longer-term probably aren’t gonna be getting fed by the U.S. Ted Jacoby III: That makes sense to me. With all these different factors, what about China? China’s in a pretty interesting spot from a milk production standpoint. They really increased their milk production three or four years ago, and then more or less stabilized it. Where is their cost of production and where does China go from here? Scott Briggs: Probably the first point to make is that we’ve all learned not to bet against China on dairy production in the last four or five years on milk production in particular. That’s been an incredible rise. And I think the second thing is that lesson to me is then, don’t bet against them and what they might be able to do with the quality of the product, and the investments that they’re making in manufacturing capacity now. There’s a huge push from China to value add, particularly on the protein side, and to then try and drive that down in sales into Southeast Asia and other parts of the world. They’ve obviously got a huge domestic market, but when it comes to starting to grow into things like processed cheese or fat exports or even micellar casein exports and MPC exports, that’s where I think that their next push is gonna be, is trying to move out anything that they don’t need domestically. So it’s not just gonna be bulk whole milk powder, which has been the story of the last two or three years. The structural issue that they’ve got is that their population versus their arable land is just huge. That’s a long-term limiter, if you like, for how much you can push into exports. Ultimately, as their productivity grows and their incomes grow, they’ll be consuming more dairy themselves. The steps that we’ve seen the last four or five years were really about shoring up domestic milk capability so that they weren’t a victim of world markets, and then now they’re trying to value add that milk. They’ve learned the lesson that you don’t grow milk but not grow factories, and they’ve learned the lesson that you don’t grow demand without growing milk. The policy now is, let’s do step changes as productivity rises to drive income rises. I think that they’re gonna be putting a push on certain functional products into Asia But I don’t think that they’re necessarily in a place to be the driver of global milk production because ultimately their cost of production, going back to where you started, Ted, is higher, and it’s structurally higher because of the fact that they just don’t have enough arable land for the population that they’ve got. Ted Jacoby III: But with China doing that and really trying to expand into value add and even trying to export, I gotta believe that’s causing Fonterra and the other New Zealand exporters to really shift their export strategy. What’s happening there? Scott Briggs: When you look at Fonterra, their stated strategy is to basically be a skim protein and fat company. They have recognized that the days of whole milk powder are limited. China went through a period where they went from 500,000 tons of imports pre-COVID to 800,000, and now they’re back down to 500,000 again. They’ve really gone through that boom and during that period, Fonterra’s basically said, “We need to move out of whole milk powder and move back into being a skim and fat company.” And when I say a skim and fat company, a skim protein and fat company. And so, we have seen them push 50 to 70,000 tons more skim into Southeast Asia. But what they’re now starting to do is to value add that skim, similar to what the U.S. is doing: putting on more ultrafiltration in front of dryers, ’cause that’s the highest marginal investment that you can do. Starting to do more MPCs, starting to do more value add on the fat side, as well. There’s been some huge investments in UHT cream which are gonna be going ahead or have already gone ahead and are being launched for this year, which draws fat away from butter and AMF. Overall, their stated strategy is to be a nutrition and food service company. Nutrition: protein-heavy products. Food service: fat-heavy products. And so they’re moving away from that whole milk powder. I think that the next stage for them is to try and drive those two sorts of products into Southeast Asia. Because China itself is already quite a big market for those sorts of products and is probably screaming out for, “How do we not use WPC and WPI?” ‘Cause that’s the highest priced protein in the world right now. So how do we move away from that? I think they’re also trying to help Southeast Asia grow protein as a category. Ted Jacoby III: But based on what you said of China’s strategy, it almost sounds like it means China and New Zealand are going head-to-head in that market in Southeast Asia. Scott Briggs: Yeah. Yeah. I think- And- And look, that’s a 5 to 10-year view. We’re already seeing traditional Fonterra markets or New Zealand markets, Open Country Dairy’s obviously nearly 20% of the market down there now, as well, and are making their own steps towards value-adding fat. So that’s always one to keep in mind. We’re certainly seeing a competition of powder flows and functional product flows from China, including fat, laminated fat, pastry butter, those sorts of things, coming into Southeast Asian markets that were traditionally New Zealand-dominated markets. Diego Carvallo: Going back to China’s milk production, a lot of rumors about a disease in the northwest of China hand, foot, and mouth. Very little information. We have several customers that have asked about it. Without going down the rabbit hole, is there any update in that regards? Scott Briggs: Super important if it were to be a big story. I think that the likelihood of it being a massive story is low at the moment from what I’ve seen at least. The key thing to watch for me in China is always the spot milk price. They’ve got a fantastic not that it’s particularly visible, but they do have a huge trade of liquid milk market between different zones and between companies in specific zones. It’s a little bit like your plus/minus to the Class III. So that spot milk price to me is always the one which tells you: are they having any problems? And it does seem to me like the containment strategy was quite effective early on. Lock down the zones, stop the movement of the cattle. So yeah, it doesn’t look like it, but, it’s a bit of a black box. Diego Carvallo: So, we don’t expect a long-term impact to their production as of right now? Scott Briggs: Not at this stage, but that could change tomorrow. Ted Jacoby III: Everybody, we will be right back after these messages. Diego Carvallo: I’m Diego Carballo with T.C. Jacoby & Co.. T.C. Jacoby & Co. specializes in international dairy markets. For new customers that haven’t done business with Jacoby, I would tell them that we can provide them with many of the powders, dairy products that they consume, not only with the physical product, but we can also help them mitigate their risk. We know dairy. We know the main players. We know the main providers for the whole value chain. We are one of the strongest players in the U.S. market because we have contact all the way from the farmer moving the liquid milk all the way to the end users that buy the end products. I am Diego Carballo with T.C. Jacoby & Co., and we bring dairy to the world. Ted Jacoby III: Josh, I’m gonna put you on the spot. Is the U.S. gonna continue to increase our exports? And if so, who do we increase those exports at the expense of? How is that gonna play out? Josh White: Yes. We’re going to absolutely continue to increase our exports. The most obvious area is where there’s gonna be a need, and that’s fat, at the moment. It’s pretty well-noted that we’ve invested heavily in cheese production, boy, if those new cheese process facilities are running at the moment, they’re happy to have a co-product in whey proteins. Things are looking pretty good at the moment. As a result of that, we’re assuming that anybody who can produce cheese or process cheese is trying to process just as much as they possibly can. As a result of that, it seems pretty eminent that the U.S. will continue to have available cheese for the global consumer. Now we’ll take a look at the protein side. One of the expected results of this protein movement in the U.S., and now again, I wanna clarify this movement because I think there’s a lot of chatter about GLP-1 being the main driver, and I would almost view that as just a catalyst and a reason why the U.S. market might be leading in protein consumption. ‘Cause if you look around the world, this is a health and wellness trend that is not exclusive to the United States, not exclusive to Europe. It’s happening everywhere. We receive inquiries from all over the world, including import regions, for protein. Given the limitation on whey protein availability, one would assume that we’re gonna see quite a migration to milk proteins, and Scott did a great job of alluding to that earlier. We’re finding different ways of concentrating protein and delivering it to the consumer. The result of that, fat’s going to come along with it. I’ve listened to Gus, Mike and the team talk fairly openly about the incredible improvements in components over the past several years from the U.S. dairymen. Scott alluded to component growth in other parts of the world as well. We’re going to have surplus fat, and there’s going to be extra fat beyond what the U.S. consumer can take in, and as a result of that, we’re going to be hungry to capture market share in the global market. Now, you ask, “At whose expense?” And that’s a loaded question in some ways because I think there’s two things going on. I also think fat consumption globally is increasing, maybe not at the rate protein is and maybe not as popular right now, but if you look, ever since the early 2000s when we made this paradigm shift in the U.S. to moving away from the old food pyramid model and moving into this clean label, healthy consumable products, fat no longer was the enemy, and it seems like ever since that happened, the world has also agreed, and we’ve continued to see more clean label dairy fat being consumed per capita globally. So, two things will happen. One is the U.S., we’re in position to grow our milk production more quickly than anywhere else in the world. We have the infrastructure, currently, we have the economics to do that, and we might outpace that fat consumption growth globally. Which means then, yes, we will have to capture some market share. And from who? It, it’s either going to be Europe or Oceania, and I think that’s a seasonal thing. I don’t know that I would point to either single market as being the loser in that, other than that the dairy support and economic situation and the outlook for dairy growth in Europe seems to have more headwinds than the rest of the world. One would assume that they’re a bit more vulnerable, right now, to the U.S. capturing market share. Ted Jacoby III: Joe, what about fat? Joe Maixner: Josh summed it up pretty clearly. We’re going to have to continue to be a net exporter of fat. We’re gonna continue to add fat into our system with all of these high protein demand and these components that just continue to creep higher and higher. We’re not going to consume everything that we can supply. We will have to be a net exporter of fat moving forward until either the supply structurally shifts or we find a different way to utilize it. I agree with Josh and Scott that it’s going to be seasonal dependent on whose expense it comes at because I think that our fat market, our butter market specifically, is going the direction that cheese has gone over the past 15 years, where it becomes almost a cyclical market. We’ll be really competitive, we’ll get a lot of exports on the books, we’ll clean up our inventories, and then our pricing will spike, we will not be competitive on exports for a while, which will develop this surplus of domestic inventory and force us to depress pricing again and go back into the export markets. Josh White: We have a U.S. bias obviously, as we’re looking at the world. The one limitation to U.S. capturing fat market share is the reputation of U.S. fat being quite a bit different. Our commodity butter is an 80% salted butter. Our packaging is different. The visual appearance of our product is different. The flavor profile of our product is a bit different. Up until now, the opportunity for us to capture market share has happened largely in the processing sector as an ingredient to make something else. As of late, we’re starting to realize a little bit more of a win in, say, food service applications in developing markets and other things. From your perspective, how close is the U.S. to penetrating into the food service or retail business in import regions for butterfat? Scott Briggs: Yeah. It’s a good question. I think there’s two parts to that answer. The first is that you break down trade barriers slowly, but it happens. It’s been happening since the start of trade, right?  You know, I do think that there’s the ability to continue educating the consumer to get them comfortable with the product, the appearance of the product. I think I said that to Joe once: U.S. butter, it’s not terrible. It’s a great tagline. But I’m not a marketing guy. It will continue to gain acceptance, I think, Josh. I think the second thing to recognize is that with Fonterra, so New Zealand, trying to put so much fat into food service applications, I think for the point of educating, as you say, what does that mean in Asia and China? It’s not necessarily just butter. UHT cream is just this massive category which keeps on growing in Asia. Asia’s not this singular thing. Like they’re all sub-markets. But as a generalization, bakery is huge through a lot of Southeast Asia China itself. If you travel there, it’s cakes, it’s pastries, it’s a hell of a lot of really nice product. It’s seen as a luxury good if you like and through the supermarkets and convenience stores and everything like that. That’s a huge sector which needs a more functional application. There’s a lot of growth in there. That’s actually leaving behind ingredient markets for U.S. fat, whether that be in Australia or whether that be into Southeast Asia or the Middle East. So that is actually to me, probably the lowest hanging fruit, and it’s what you’ve already seen. So it’s not like you need to necessarily change the spec immediately to go for these applications. It can be just as easily going for what’s been left behind by New Zealand. Just one point that I’d make about whose market share is the U.S. gonna take on certain products? The European milk growth in late last year really does mask the fact that we probably still need U.S. butterfat exports to balance the world market. If you were to take the 100,000 excess tons that Europe made in the second half of last year out of the market, say that was unsustainable milk growth for a period of time, once we eat through that stock, we’ve taken a lot of the U.S. growth, if you like. We’ve absorbed a lot of that growth in what you’ve made, and we needed it. So I do think that we’re going through a process of still eating through those European stocks overall, and that glut that we had, which was driven by two years of fantastically high milk prices. But once we get through that, the global consumer is buying $5,000 butter, and they’re buying $3,000 skim. And that is a price level that’s comfortable in a lot of the world. Mideast is obviously going through a few lumps right now, so we may have some problems on demand in the next six months. But once we get through that and, hopefully the conflict there is over and they return to some kind of growth, we do get to a position where we probably need U.S. fat in the world market. Mike, you made the comment about how well the U.S. farmer is now not feeding for fat, and it does seem like some of that fat component growth at least is slowing. Do you see responsiveness to fat prices significantly, and how can that change the U.S. fat balance of being a reliable or necessary exporter? Mike Brown (2): As far as producer decisions, I’ve had some conversations, particularly with cheese plants, who are seeing some changes and talking with their producers. And some are making some adjustment to ration changing sources, and what those sources are finding is what we’re seeing in the milk supply, protein remains relatively strong and still grows. Fat has slowed down a bit, and most of it is PKE. That seems to be the change. Talking with producers, I had a good conversation, actually, last fall with a very high producing Jersey herd who said that if fat gets below about $1.70, it doesn’t really make sense for him to feed PKE anymore because he isn’t getting enough return from it. I think there’s probably some doing that. Is it broad? I think when the U.S. cows are milking so well, they’re reluctant to make a lot of ration changes that might slow things down. But we’re seeing somewhat on the margin. Will it solve the problem? No, because it’s genetics. It’s the genomics, our selection for fat. There’s so much variability in fat genetics within cattle, particularly Holsteins, that they’ve been able to make huge progress, and of course that’s permanent. So I expect that fat will continue to stay high. So, will we see some moderate fluctuations from time to time? Sure. That market will, I think, have some effect, particularly since they’ve gotten so high. Will our trend change? No. We’ll continue to improve in fat and in protein with time just because genetic selection in the U.S., particularly with sexed semen and genomics, has just gotten so intense that I don’t see that changing. The rate of gain will slow because the base population is higher versus the sires that are being used, but that will continue. We may slow down. We’re not gonna turn around and go the other way. Ted Jacoby III: Awesome. Thanks, Mike. Jacob Menge: I was gonna stir the pot a bit and almost take the other side by saying I have a degree in economics, so I succumb to liking to pretend that free trade is how everything works in the world. And it doesn’t. And I think we’re pretty clearly going down this path of almost a bifurcated world of trade relationships. And I really think it would be a mistake to ignore that moving forward, especially with Russia potentially being able to supply China in the future. We’re almost taking for granted that everyone is gonna buy from the most efficient producer in the world, and we’re really going into this kind of tumultuous geopolitical landscape that it feels like we’re probably ignoring. I don’t think that changes the fact that the U.S. is still gonna have to export. We’re producing more than we’re gonna consume. We’re not gonna let the product rot. We’re probably not gonna shut down all these nice facilities we just built. But it does make me question what price we are going to be getting when we go to export the products. What happens to the basis on those export sales? There’s a big geopolitical issue when it comes to a lot of the analysis we’ve just been doing. Scott Briggs: How much of the cake is baked? How much growth are we guaranteed to see on U.S. milk supply in the next two to three years, and cheese supply, just as a function of these investments that have already been made? How much of the world trade has already bifurcated? China’s getting it from New Zealand. Okay, that could break. I could see that breaking. I could see the Middle East possibly breaking, like you’re already seeing Iran getting certain product from Belarus or you already seen China get part of it. So there could be massive breakages in there, you’re right. The challenge is if we were to stop trading between Russia, the ‘Stans, and China, if that became one zone and we all became the other zone, like the two biggest linkages are the Middle East and New Zealand, and you probably do flood the market if you were to stop that. Who would get hurt in that scenario? It’s probably Europe. It’s Gonna be a race to the bottom to try and kill some of the highest cost milk production. Yeah, how much of the cake is baked? Ted Jacoby III: I would say it is pretty baked. But I think of it more in terms of between the current trends we’re seeing and how sticky we suspect they are from a breeding-to-beef standpoint, specifically cattle supply, beef cattle supply, and being able to continue to supply the beef market with beef, I think we’re gonna continue to see some really good returns to dairy farmers breeding to beef, which means they are going to resist and be pretty resistant even when the milk price is low to reducing the number of cows in the U.S. That’s number one. That puts in a really hard floor. In addition to that, those dairy farmers, especially the really big ones, are making really good money when you add the beef income on top of the milk income, and they’re looking to continue to expand as a result. So, in terms of the capacity that’s already added, they’re gonna fill it up. In terms of the additional capacity, which, let’s just put it this way: Over the last two to three years, we’ve had a lot of new capacity. Over the next couple of years, we will continue to have additional capacity added, but at a lower rate than what we just saw, but it’s all gonna get filled up. I don’t think we’re gonna have a problem over the next three to five years filling the capacity that we build because I think that the income situation for the dairy farmer in the U.S., it’s just in a really good spot. Even if you take, what’s our worst-case scenario from a milk revenue standpoint? Whey protein prices collapse. We produce so much milk that butter prices stay low, nonfat prices stay low, cheese prices stay low. All that means is we’re just gonna be that much more competitive in the global market, and I think our overproduction is probably gonna hurt Europe more than it’s actually gonna hurt the U.S. Josh White: I’ll just maybe add to it that, the most obvious way that the U.S. has invested is to add a lot of cheese processing capacity over the past few years, massive investments. People are well aware of it. But the aggregate of all of the incremental expansions and all of that has been really significant as well. It feels almost imminent right now that we were already investing in dairy growth before the beef on farm income reached a level that it’s at today, and it just doesn’t feel like that’s going to change any time in the near future. And as a result of that, it only maintains or accelerates that desire to make more milk. We were having conversations 24 months ago about how would we have the heifers to grow the herd? How would we do this? We found a way to grow the herd. The component growth outperformed expectations, and it’s only been more consistently profitable because the revenue stream’s been spread across more things. So we’re gonna have milk, and if we’re gonna have milk, we’re going to figure out a way to process that milk. And so far, there must have been some really good foresight to do that and build all of this cheese processing capacity to absorb it up till now, and we’ve got a little runway left to continue to fill them up. But there’s conversations at every major place about how do we extend our put-through and extend our yield by shipping more condensed skim, by processing more UF milk products, by… I can go on and on. I don’t know if it’s exactly what you were asking, but are we done in investing in our ability to process more milk? I don’t believe so. The next move had to have already been thought about and has to be under construction. We’re years out from the one after that. I think there’s plenty that are thinking about the next move. Mike Brown (2): It’s kinda like the beef has created this amazing revenue stream for dairy producers in the U.S., and our use of sexed semen and beef selection has just improved that. Same with whey proteins and plant profitability. With these very high whey protein isolate and whey protein concentrate prices, even at a 70-cent whey market, your margins on your whey proteins are very high, which gives those plants a little more room to grow. But I think the other part is: we’ve always talked about growth in cheese, the milk proteins are growing, too, and as whey protein prices get higher, manufacturers and product developers are figuring out ways to use lower-priced dairy protein alternatives, and that market’s gonna grow as well. How much milk do we have left to dry into whey? How much milk are we gonna have left to dry into powder if those markets continue to grow? We don’t think they’re done yet. We think that growth is there. Will these prices stay where they are forever? Probably not, but the demand seems to be continuing to grow. Part of it isn’t will we grow our plants, it’s also what will we be making in those plants? Are we gonna be making more focus on other protein products than just cheese? Ted Jacoby III: I think one of the most ironic things about milk production in the U.S. right now is the fact that the biggest danger, the thing that would hurt the dairy farmer the most right now, is actually not milk cost. It’s beef price. What would happen if the beef price collapses to the point where breeding the beef is no longer profitable? We’re going to double the amount of dairy heifers we start producing. You know how that plays out? That plays out by, right now the number of lactations out of a cow has gone from two to three to four, which is decreasing the rate of increase of the components in the milk because you’re turning over a smaller percentage of your herd every year. All you’re gonna do is speed that up. So maybe our milk production plateaus or even drops a little bit, but the components in the milk increase will speed up as a result. You’ve got the U.S. dairy industry now in a position where even the worst-case scenario continues to be a threat for Europe or the rest of the world from a milk supply standpoint. Mike Brown (2): We look at the percentage of milk in the U.S. that is now produced by these extremely efficient, very well-managed, very well-leveraged herds, and so our susceptibility is less. It’s kinda like we’re going through a heat wave right now, Scott, and everybody says, “What’s that gonna do to milk?” A whole lot less than it used to because of the controlled environments of our modern barns. We’ve done a lot and kinda like I think in a lot of industries, we’ve had some good profitability, people have made investments for the long term. And when you make big investments for the long term, you don’t usually turn around. You’re committed to being in the business. I think the biggest thing for us, in my mind, is for years we’ve been looking at the whey and dry milk markets, exports are a huge part of those sales. Cheese is growing, and we’ve reached a point with cheese where those export sales are becoming more and more important, and so how do we sustain them over time? What do we need to do? I think a good example, Joe’s been working a lot with our opportunities in butter over the last few years and working with folks that we work with and what do I need to make to take best advantage of those export markets? We’ll continue to do that as well. We’re just thinking a lot more world demand than just, “I need to make a 40-pound block of cheddar and who will buy it?” We’re trying to think a little harder than that now. Scott Briggs: Mike, you touched on if we’d had the milk production growth that we’ve had in the last two years 10 years ago, we would’ve wiped out certain pieces of milk production around the world. The market would not have absorbed that level of additional product. Now, we certainly had a period in October, November, December last year, where things got uneconomic in certain part of the world, and we didn’t last. Because ultimately, the demand shone through and, having listened to the podcast, protein demand and that protein story is a huge part of that in the States. That, to me, is a trend that’s really only beginning around a lot of the other parts of the world. It can go underestimated from your side of the world. You guys are the vanguard in that. You’re the leaders in it. You’ve got the category. China’s got a great category in this area and is making some huge investments in it. But, we’ve just seen here in Australia and in Southeast Asia some massive investments from European companies into cottage cheese, into ready-to-drink categories with the principal idea of exporting them to Asia. And, that growth model into developing markets is always put a high price product in there that’s branded from a developed market, and then grow the category with the local champion. You get an imported product, it looks sexy and it looks great, and it’s like a luxury product, and then you grow the category by producing a lower price point product to try and then get the local population really going for it. And so that’s just started. The other thing that’s really hot in different parts of Asia is, funnily enough, processed cheese for food service. It’s a really quickly growing category. It’s a category that gets a lot of interest. We’ve spent a lot of time on the point of does the U.S. have a competitive advantage for supply, in this kind of changing world. I think one of the biggest pieces of competitive advantage that the States has is its ability to grow an export pathway. It’s a mindset; it’s a trade infrastructure, as well, with government relations and everything like that allows you to grow into world markets in a way that probably a lot of other places don’t have. If we’ve got a growing demand, and I made this point before, we might see a few lumps here, mainly because of the Middle East, right? The Middle East looks a little bit overbought, looks a little bit quiet. Southeast Asia’s having a few little hiccups with changes in Indonesia and some of their currency devaluation, like these sort of short-term issues. But longer term, it’s very comfortable for a Southeast Asian consumer buying $2,800 to $3,200 skim and $5,000 butter. These are price points that work now, which never worked before, that’s the growth price point now. I do think that we’re going to have a situation where the world market is gonna be the next engine for some of the growth in protein demand and fat demand as well. Tristan Suellentrop: Scott, being based in Australia, I’d be interested to hear your perspective on the potential super El Niño that was confirmed this week. How does that factor into your outlook for dairy production in Oceania over the next year or two? And how concerned should producers in Australia and New Zealand be if it develops as forecasted? Scott Briggs: So it’s a very detailed topic. The El Niño indicator that everybody looks at is the Southern Oscillation Index, which is screaming El Niño at the moment. The reality is that what impacts Australia and New Zealand is not just the El Niño. It can be a major impact, but we’ve also had years where it has had no impact, and probably even at a similar level of El Niño indicator. And the reason for that is the El Niño obviously talks about what’s happening out in between South America and Asia, so that pressure, but our weather system, particularly in our dairy regions, is just as impacted by how much moisture is exiting Antarctica and moving north, into the southern parts of Australia, which are our heavy dairy regions, and also into New Zealand. The other weather system that impacts our dairy production during spring and our moisture levels is how much tropical cyclone activity is actually exiting the Pacific Islands and moving down into the North Island of New Zealand, which really doesn’t have a lot to do with El Niño either. The key point is that, right now El Niño, yeah, it’s a real phenomenon, but it’s not the only thing that’s gonna impact Oceania. when you look back at the history, which we have, some years it’s a really important thing, and other years you can have a fantastic spring in what seems to be an El Niño year. The other point that I’d make is that we have fantastic moisture right now. We’re getting huge rainfalls through Australia particularly, but also in New Zealand, which are really recharging things over winter. Economics would also mean that we’ve all got a fair bit of silage buffered away from the last 12 months of good weather. So I don’t think, at this stage, we’re seeing anything that’s like a huge impact on Oceanic dairy, but it’s very early. The thing that we’re all gonna need to watch out for is how much does it rain, particularly in New Zealand in December. New Zealand in December, January, that’s really when we have to start looking at what might happen. Ted Jacoby III: Cool. All right. Scott, this was a fantastic discussion. Thank you so much for joining us. Really appreciate your insight and your expertise in what’s going on the other side of the pond. Thank you.  Thank you. Lockhart, thank you very much. Cheers, guys. Next time on The Milk Check. Will Loux: The U.S. exports as we go forward here over the next few years is at a crossroad. Do we swing back to balancing to milk fat, which would mean we’re probably short of protein? Or do we start balancing to protein, which means we’re gonna need to find homes for a heck of a lot more cheese and butter. Ted Jacoby III: Join us and our special guest, Will Loux from the U.S. Dairy Export Council as we discuss the future of U.S. dairy exports. Ending commercial: The best part of my job is working directly with cheesemakers and helping their businesses run better because they make wonderful, great products. Anything we can do to make them more successful not only helps them, but helps Jacoby. We look at how milk flows through their plant, what their real cost of products are, so when they’re making marketing decisions, making new investments, particularly on whey processing, they have a benchmark to use to determine what opportunities they have and what the returns would be. Whey has become so valuable with these high-protein markets. There’s added value that they can get by just condensing it, and maybe moving further down the supply chain in the longer term, making products themselves. My role is to help them cost that so they have a better understanding of what the opportunities can be. Longer term, we expect the whey protein market to remain very valuable. For one part of the supply chain to be successful, everyone has to be, and part of my role is trying to help people be as competitive as they can possibly be. My superpower is practical application of data and analysis. I believe firmly that Jacoby’s success is because we help our suppliers and our buyers be successful. I’m Mike Brown, and I love working for T.C. Jacoby & Co. because I get to help people make their businesses more successful.

Pour découvrir tous les avantages de Desjardins Courtage en ligne ou pour ouvrir un compte, visitez https://www.disnat.com/finance360/spotifyMa formation pour les investisseurs autonomes: https://formation-traders360.mykajabi.com/inscriptionAbonnez-vous à mon infolettre Analyse360: https://traders360.ca/product/infolettre-analyse-360Plus votre valeur nette augmente, plus les erreurs financières peuvent vous coûter cher. Entre la recherche du prochain investissement qui fera x10 et la panique quand votre portefeuille perd de la valeur, chaque étape vient avec ses propres pièges. Dans cet épisode, je vous montre comment éviter de saboter votre progression au moment même où vous commencez enfin à vous enrichir.Suivez-moi sur Instagram & TikTokIG: alextraders360TikTok: alexdemers360AVIS LÉGAL: Les propos de l'animateur ne doivent en aucun cas être interprétés comme une recommandation d'achat d'une action sur les marchés boursiers. Alexandre Demers n'est pas un conseiller financier et toutes les informations partagées dans ce balado ne reflète que son opinion personnelle. Consultez un professionnel accrédité auprès de l'AMF pour obtenir des conseils appropriés à votre situation.

Ma formation pour les investisseurs autonomes: https://formation-traders360.mykajabi.com/inscriptionAbonnez-vous à mon infolettre Analyse360: https://traders360.ca/product/infolettre-analyse-360Je vous explique quelle stratégie financière adopter selon votre revenu annuel : 50k, 75k ou 100k et plus. On parle des priorités à chaque étape : éliminer les dettes coûteuses, bâtir une capacité d'épargne et choisir le bon compte d'investissement. J'aborde également l'importance d'éviter que l'augmentation de vos revenus se transforme en augmentation du train de vie. L'objectif est d'offrir une structure simplifiée pour mieux gérer votre argent et transformer votre revenu en vraie richesse.Suivez-moi sur Instagram & TikTokIG: alextraders360TikTok: alexdemers360AVIS LÉGAL: Les propos de l'animateur ne doivent en aucun cas être interprétés comme une recommandation d'achat d'une action sur les marchés boursiers. Alexandre Demers n'est pas un conseiller financier et toutes les informations partagées dans ce balado ne reflète que son opinion personnelle. Consultez un professionnel accrédité auprès de l'AMF pour obtenir des conseils appropriés à votre situation.

Sommarens rapportperiod närmar sig med stormsteg och i dagens Börslunch analyserar vi läget inför detta. Tillsammans med Patricia Hedelius, förvaltare på AMF och Robert Oldstrand, aktiestrateg på Swedbank tittar vi på förväntningarna och hör hur de agerat inför sommaren. Självklart bjuds vi även på ett gäng aktietips! Programledare är Nike Mekibes och Martin Bunge-Meyer.

Kia ora. Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the Persian Gulf situation is settling into a chronic stalemate after the acute hot conflict. US allies in the region are confused, Qatar's role in negotiations is questioned as to whether it can actually do anything, and Iran and Oman are moving forward with their plans for 'fees' and 'management' of the waterway. The US is getting sidelined. One outcome seems clear however; Chinese EV's are dominating world car sales so demand for crude oil is likely to be much less in the future, and that will limit oil price pressures. But first today, there was another dairy Pulse auction overnight, bringing lower prices again. AMF fell -2.5% from last week's event, butter was down -0.5%, SMP was down a chunky -6.2% and WMP slipped -0.6%. These build on trends we have seen since mid-May and given the rise in global milk production by the main exporters (New Zealand included), it is a trend likely to continue for a while yet. In the US, labour market data for May about job openings was little-changed from April even if it still is near a two year high, which was slightly better than was expected. But the June PMI report for the important Chicago manufacturing hub was quite a bit weaker than for May and what was expected. But it is only back to February levels which isn't bad at all. It was a fall away in new orders that drove the easing. Meanwhile the Dallas Fed's regional services survey became positive - just - for the first time in five months. They reported that selling price pressures increased slightly, while input price and wage pressures grew at a faster pace. The Conference Board sentiment survey barely moved in June from May, which actually was a result that disappointed analysts because a more marked improvement was anticipated. And that was because respondents turned negative about job prospects, with almost a quarter of them unexpectedly saying jobs are 'hard to get', the highest level sine early 2021. And we should perhaps note that the deadly screwworm cattle disease is still spreading in Texas and New Mexico, spreading to other animals too. Even though the number of animals reported as having contracted the disease remains small, the risks to cattle herds in these states in very large. In Canada, the expectation that it was falling into recession has proven not to be the case. Canada's GDP rebounded from a first-quarter contraction to record a +0.5% monthly gain in April making this their largest economic expansion in nine months. Their May estimate points to a further if minor + 0.1% growth. Across the Pacific in Japan, the yen slipped into the 162-per-US dollar range yesterday for the first time in 39 years,and extending a slide that has accelerated in the past few months. A two month intervention effort isn't working, raising fresh questions about what is driving the yen's renewed weakness. China's official PMIs posted some marginal improvements in June, actually very marginal but at least they are not contracting. Their factory PMI is expanding, just. New orders picked up slightly. And their services PMI is now not contracting. But it isn't expanding either. New orders in this version are still negative, but the overall index was bolstered by expectations for improvement and lower lead times. All other more direct elements are negative to some degree. We should note that the unofficial PMIs by S&P Global/RatingDog have tended to be more expansionary in 2026. These unofficial results will come later today (Wednesday) and Friday. German inflation came in at 2.3% in June, down from 2.6% in May, 2.9% in April, and softer than anticipated, mainly because energy prices retreated there. Back in the US, Rocket Lab has agreed to buy Iridium Communications, a pioneer in satellite telephones, in a broadening attempt to compete with Starlink. It combines their launch capabilities and satellite manufacturing with Iridium's network in low-Earth orbit and valuable radio frequencies for satellite communication. Yesterday we reported a +6% rise in May air cargo activity. But today the May air passenger travel data was released showing a declined -2.2% from a year ago, down -3.1% for international travel. The main diver of the pullback was international travel through the Middle East (-28.8%). But it is also worth noting that domestic air travel in China fell (-6.2%) as well as in the US (-1.9%). The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.43%, up +6 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold has risen to US$4026/oz, up a net +US$4/oz from yesterday. Silver is now under US$59.50/oz, up +US$1.50 from a day ago. Oil prices are down -US$1.50 from yesterday at just on US$69.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is unchanged at just on US$73/bbl. Hormuz transits have stayed at their lower level after the recent volatility & uncertainties with just 19 crude or product tankers exiting over the past 24 hours (5 dark with transponders off) and 23 entering for new loads (5 dark). Over the past two days, almost 70% of the exiting vessels have been headed to China. The Kiwi dollar is up +30 bps from this time yesterday at just under 56.8 USc. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 82.1 AUc. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at just on 49.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 60.6 which is up another +20 bps from this time yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$58.325 and down -3.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just under +/- 2.0%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow. Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Kia ora. Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news markets are betting that the next rate move by the US Fed will be a hike. And that has juiced up the USD today. But first, the overnight dairy Pulse auction brought sharply lower prices for the three lines offered. AMF took a -7.5% tumble from last week's full auction event. They didn't release the butter price this time. SMP fell -4.5% from last week and WMP fell -1.9%. But given the retreat of the NZD at the same time (-2.8%) the impact in local currency will be much less. In the US, there was another good weekly jobs indicator from ADP for private payrolls, rising about what was expected. And the flash US factory PMI for June shows solid growth, in fact its best in 4 years, but it also signals lower employment and elevated price inflation, so a mixed bag. The fall in factory jobs was the fastest since the pandemic. New order growth was good but the hikes in input prices are still next-level. Their service sector rose too but much more modestly and new order growth was tame, But none of this showed up in the Richmond Fed's factory survey. While it did expand it was very modest and well below its May level and what was expected. They had the same lack-luster result in their service sector. There was a well-supported US Treasury 2 year bond auction overnight, delivering a median yield of 4.14% (high 4.19%) which was well above the 4.02% median at the same event a month ago. The Chicago Fed boss said yesterday the US inflation is too high and "going the wrong way". (He is presently an alternate FOMC member, but he will be a full member in 2027.) Across the Pacific, Japan's factories are expanding solidly and faster. They recorded a stronger rise in business activity in June, but rate of cost inflation has hit a four-year high. New orders rose their fastest since 2022. Singapore is managing to navigate the current global inflation pressures well. They recorded an inflation rate that held steady at 1.8% in May, unchanged for a third consecutive month and below market expectations of 2%. In India, their flash June PMI's remained elevated and very expansionary, in both their factory and services sectors. New orders rose at a good pace, but input cost pressures eased, rising at a five month low. In Taiwan, we are so used to reporting spectacular results but they no longer seem out of the ordinary. But in fact they remain extraordinary. Their May export orders were up +47% from a year ago to almost a new record high. In Europe, their factory PMI is still expanding in June, but less so. Inflationary pressures show signs of softening there. Holding them back is their services sector. The latest flash PMI for Australia shows that business activity nears stabilisation in June as the service sector improved in Australia, but new orders continue to fall, including for new export orders. And staying in Australia, their latest quarterly update for rural commodities notes that the gross value of agricultural production is forecast to fall by -5% to AU $98.3 bln in the 2026–27 upcoming year. They expect "average broadacre farm business profit" to fall by -70%, driven by lower revenue and higher input prices. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.46%, down -5 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold has fallen to US$4130/oz, down a net -US$50/oz from yesterday. Silver is just under US$62/oz, down -US$3.50 from yesterday. Oil prices are down -50 USc from yesterday at just on US$73/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just on US$77/bbl. Hormuz transits are staying modest up with 16 crude or product tankers exiting over the past 24 hours (7 dark with transponders off) and 20 entering for new loads (2 dark). The Kiwi dollar is down another -40 bps from this time yesterday at just on 56.7 USc and a seven month low. Against the Aussie we are up +40 bps and back at 82 AUc. Against the euro we are down -20 bps at just on 49.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 60.6 which is down another -30 bps from yesterday, and near its lowest since the GFC in 2009. The bitcoin price starts today at US$63,388 and up +0.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just over +/- 1.8%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow. Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Les grands groupes hôteliers cèdent leurs hôtels 1 et 2 étoiles depuis des années. Pendant qu'Accor vend, Yahia Ben Othman, lui, rachète. En moins de dix ans, le groupe Verdoso a acquis plus de 30 hôtels économiques en France, sur fonds propres. Et avec ce parc, ils parviennent à générer des rendements plus qu'honorables*.Dans cet épisode, nous recevons Yahia Ben Othman est directeur général du groupe Honpô, la plateforme d'exploitation du groupe familial Verdoso, spécialisée dans la gestion d'hôtels super-économiques en France ; et Raphaël Zribi qui pilote Balestra, la société de gestion agréée AMF créée dans l'orbite de Verdoso pour ouvrir cette stratégie à des investisseurs externes : family offices, entrepreneurs, CGP.À deux, dans ce nouveau format croisé, ils racontent chacun leur version d'une même conviction : l'hôtellerie super-économique est un marché sous-exploité, et ils ont plus de 30 hôtels pour le prouver.Parmi les sujets abordés dans cet interview croisée : Pourquoi un segment que les grands groupes ont abandonné est aussi l'un des plus résistants aux crises ; et pourquoi c'est précisément ce qui en fait un outil de diversification pertinent.Comment identifier un hôtel en difficulté financière et comprendre comment lui redonner de la valeur ; avec le cas Colmar comme illustration concrète.Ce que signifie acheter des murs à moins de 2 000 €/m², en dessous du coût de reconstruction, en termes de protection du capital investi.Pourquoi les entrepreneurs souscrivent davantage que les profils patrimoniaux classiques ; et ce que ça dit du modèle.Les critères pour accepter ou non non un actif, et pourquoi c'est une bonne chose pour les investisseurs.Bonne écoute ! *Les performances passées ne préjugent pas des performances futures. Rendez-vous sur sapians.com pour connaitre le détail du fonds, ses performances et risques associés.------------------------------Ressources complémentairesImmobilier 2026 : décrypter le cycle pour bien investir, avec Jean-Baptiste Pracca (Mata Capital) https://sapians.com/blog/podcast-immobilier-jean-baptiste-pracca-mata-capital Investir dans l'immobilier via un fonds : comment construire un portefeuille résilient avec Sapians https://sapians.com/investissement-actifs-reels-----------------------Attention : Les performances passées ne préjugent pas des performances futures et investir comporte des risques de perte partielle ou totale en capital. Ce contenu est informatif et ne constitue pas un conseil en investissement. Toute décision doit être adaptée à votre situation. Si vous souhaitez bénéficier de conseils personnalisés, veuillez créer votre compte ou prendre rendez-vous avec un conseiller Sapians.SAPIANS - RCS n°919 330 969 - ORIAS n°23003561 en qualité de CIF et COA. Activité de démarchage bancaire et financier.

Just nu råder AI-frossa och geopolitisk oro på marknaden efter nedgångar på Kospi och Nasdaq i fredags. I dag gästas vi av Anders Oscarsson, tidigare från AMF, och Tina Lundmark, på Handelsbanken, som resonerar kring fastighetsbolagen och intressanta case, men också hur industriförvärvaren Lifco mår. Programledare är Nike Mekibes och Gabriel Mellqvist. Allt detta i dagens Börslunch

Kia ora. Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news uncertainty swirls in the Middle East as Iran has shot down an American Apache helicopter (and Trump is looking more like Jimmy Carter by the day). But more ships are transiting (paying Iran's toll), and that extra oil is easing the global price. But first locally, the overnight dairy Pulse auction delivered lower prices for the four products offered. AMF was down -4.6% from last week's full auction. Butter was down -0.6%. SMP was down -5.5% and WMP was down -3.5%. But an intervening -2% fall in the NZD took some of the sting out of these retreats. In the US, NFIB Business Optimism Index fell again and to its lowest since October 2024.. These businesses are struggling with "significant and unpredictable hikes in fuel prices", which they find harder to pass on to their customers compared to their larger corporate competitors. The weekly ADP jobs report said new private sector jobs created were lower last week at +29,000, in fact their lowest since the end of March. American existing home sales actually rose in May to an annualised rate of 4.17 mln, its highest of the year. This was impressive because mortgage interest rates rose in the period and seems not to have been the handbrake sometimes assumed. All the same, unsold inventory rose. There was a small but notable increase in demand for the overnight and popular US Treasury 3 year bond which delivered a median yield of 4.15% (high of 4.19%), sharply up on the 3.92% median at the prior equivalent event a month ago. In April, US exports of goods and services rose +2.6% from March +12.5% from a year ago, helped by better exports of crude oil, AI computer gear and aircraft, but most offset by a quite sharp fall in tourism receipts. Imports were up +1.9% from March, up +9.1% from a year ago, dominated by capital goods and rising transport and travel cost by Americans. Their trade deficit narrowed slightly, but big trade deficits remained with Taiwan (-$19.3 nln), Vietnam (-$19.3 bln), Mexico (-$14.8 bln), China (-$12.0 bln), the EU (-$7.2 bln), and Canada (-$6.2 bln). The Texas screwworm outbreak is spreading which will affect their beef trade. The outbreak now includes for a dog. Meanwhile, Canadian exports rose +1.6% from the previous month to C$75.2 bln in April, the highest on record and up +24.7% from the same month a year ago. Imports rose too, but they still managed to report their best monthly trade surplus since January 2025 and their best April since 2008. Across the Pacific, China's exports surged +19.4% in May from a year ago to a record high of US$377 bln, far exceeding forecasts of +15% and accelerating sharply from April's 14.1% rise. It was the fastest increase since February and gave them a trade surplus of +US$105.4 bln. However, Chinese oil imports hit an eight year low in May. Across the strait, Taiwan said its exports rose even more impressively, up +52% from a year ago. Their imports were up +55%. That means a trade surplus for them of +US$17.9 bln, middle-range for what they have had since October 2025 and wildly higher than in any prior period Japanese machine tool orders fell in May from April after falling in April too. But they remain up +37% from a year ago. The monthly easing was for orders from both domestic and foreign customers. Staying in Japan, reports are growing that their central bank will raise its policy rate by +25 bps to 1.0% when they meet on Friday week. And they are likely to pause their JGB bond sell-down program that is underway. And in Indonesia, their central bank held an emergency meeting to assess the economic crisis growing in their financial and fx markets. At that meeting they hikes their policy rate to 5.50%, a hike of +25 bps. They last met only three weeks ago when they raised their rate by +25 bps at that time too. They started 2026 with a 4.75% rate. Their actions are required to stop the Indonesian currency falling sharply, down -7.8% in 2026. In Europe, the Netherlands blocked an American company from buying a local firm that handles its national ID system, saying it would create a “threat to the public interest.” The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.53%, down -2 bps for the day. The price of gold will start today down -US$75 from yesterday at US$4258/oz. Silver is down a sharp -US$3.50 at just under US$65/oz. Oil prices are down -US$2.50 from yesterday at just under US$88.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just on US$91.50/bbl. Hormuz transits are still very low despite the pricing optimism. China's crude imports dropped to around 7.8 million barrels per day last month, the lowest level in more than eight years and nearly 4 million barrels per day below the 2025 average. Weaker shipments to from the world's largest oil importer even if caused by Hormuz, combined with record US exports and emergency reserve releases, has limited the price impact of the Middle East conflict. The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from this time yesterday at just on 58.2 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +30 bps at 82.8 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at just on 50.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 61.9 which is up +10 bps from yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at just on US$61,545 and down -2.95% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just over +/- 2.6%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Just nu råder AI frossa och geopolitisk oro på marknaden efter nedgångar på Kospi och Nasdaq i fredags. I dag gästas vi av Anders Oscarsson, tidigare från AMF, och Tina Lundmark, på Handelsbanken, som resonerar kring fastighetsbolagen och intressanta case, men också hur industriförvärvaren Lifco mår. Programledare är Nike Mekibes och Gabriel Mellqvist. Allt detta i dagens Börslunch!

Kia ora. Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news of a changing of the guard. Countries are moving away from US Treasuries as a core reserve asset, replacing it with gold. At the same time, crypto values including for bitcoin, seem to be fading fast. But first up today, there was a full dairy auction overnight, one that brought slightly lower overall prices, with the USD index falling -0.6% mainly on -3% lower SMP prices. Milk fat products like AMF. Butter and Cheddar all rose, offsetting the fall in powder prices. But the NZD has also strengthened, so the result in NZD terms was a -2.0% fall. A pull-back in demand from China is part of this story too. In the US, they reported a surge in April job openings, their most in 18 months, notably in California and other western states. It is a services related thing, with manufacturing jobs not really participating. Meanwhile, the US RCM/TIPP economic sentiment survey fell slightly in June from may, but to its lowest in two years. And the US Logistics Managers Index is showing the full impacts of the current supply-chain disruptions and stockpiling. It held in May at its highest since the pandemic stress period. It is increasing at an increasing rate for inventory costs, warehousing capacity, and freight prices. In China, we should note that it is wheat harvest season and that they expect a bumper result. At the same time, both Australian and US farmers are hesitating in their plans for wheat as high fertiliser and fuel costs threaten to make the prospects very uncertain. In the EU and as expected, CPI inflation firmed up to 3.2% in May from 3.0% in April. Their core inflation rose as well. It seems to be only about rising fuel costs at present with the spread wider quite limited. Will the ECB hike its policy rate on June 11? Markets are betting 100% it will. In Australia, they have slipped into their first trade deficit since 2017 in the March 2026 quarter. Exports of minerals fell (except for gold) while imports of data center equipment surged. Globally, it is worth noting again that aluminium, zinc, copper and tin are all now either at record highs or at post-pandemic highs. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.46%, down -1 bp from this time yesterday.  The price of gold will start today down -US$9 at US$4482/oz. Silver is down -50 USc at just over US$75/oz. Interestingly, an ECB analysis released overnight has highlighted that after the run-up in the gold price, at the same time as the value of US Treasuries fell, gold was the largest single asset held for 'foreign reserves'. (see Chart 7) Oil prices are up another +US$2 just under US$93.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now on US$96/bbl and up +US$1.50. Hormuz remains shut. The Kiwi dollar is lower from yesterday at this time at 59.2 USc, down -30 bps. Against the Aussie we are also down -40 bps at 82.5 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at just under 51 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 62.7 which is down -20 bps from yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at just on US$67,464 and down a sharp -5.9% from this time yesterday and falling. Crypto funds are getting excess redemptions at present. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been high at just under +/- 3.5%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Joseph Wilson was loosing the battle to Kodak when he discovered the xerography machine. Then he made it sellable. Dave Young: Welcome to the Empire Builders Podcast, teaching business owners the not so secret techniques that took famous businesses from mom and pop to major brands. Stephen Simple is a marketing consultant, story collector and storyteller. I’m Stephen’s sidekick and business partner, Dave Young. Before we get into today’s episode, a word from our sponsor, which is, well, it’s us, but we’re highlighting ads we’ve written and produced for our clients. So here’s one of those. [Handyside Ad] Dave Young: Welcome to the Empire Builders Podcast. I’m Dave Young and that’s Stephen Semple. Welcome to the Empire Builders Podcast. I’m Dave Young and there’s Steve Semple. Welcome. Oh wait, I got stuck making copies of copies. See what I did there? Stephen Semple: You’re so clever. Dave Young: You know what I did there, right? Yeah. Stephen Semple: I saw it, yeah. Dave Young: Today we’re talking about Xerox. Stephen Semple: Talking about copies of copies. Dave Young: Copies of copies of copies. Stephen Semple: Oh, and back in the day there were a lot of copies. A lot of copies. Dave Young: Oh man. I have copier stories. Yeah. Stephen Semple: I bet. I think those of us of our genre- Dave Young: Honestly, so Xerox, and we’re going to learn the story of the Xerox corporation and we’re going to… I don’t know their whole story, but I can tell you this, the photocopier or before there was something else before that. There was carbon paper. Stephen Semple: Yes, yes. Dave Young: But nobody owned a printing press. Stephen Semple: Correct, yeah. Dave Young: And so I would make the case that a photocopier was the first social media meme sharing engine. Stephen Semple: Oh, because we could photocopy our butts and share it the office. Dave Young: No, no, no, no, not your butt. I mean, I don’t know what you do in Canada. Here, I remember as a kid going to coffee, but my dad, small town, small town America, and he went to coffee twice a day with his buddies, 10 o’clock and three o’clock. They’d go down to the local cafe and they’d sit around a table and have coffee, eight or 10 of them. And somebody would always have a copy of a copy of a copy of a copy of a joke. Stephen Semple: Right. Dave Young: A cartoon, a usually off color story and they’d pass it around and then somebody would take it and make another copy of it and share it somewhere else. But you couldn’t do that if you didn’t have a copier. Stephen Semple: Well, that’s true. Dave Young: So thank you, Xerox. Stephen Semple: For making our lives richer. Dave Young: And now we can just electronically copy stuff and shoot it off as a text and a meme. Stephen Semple: One of the things you’re going to love about this story is it involves a fire extinguisher. So I’ve got your attention. Dave Young: Oh, I am all in. Stephen Semple: You’re all in. And Xerox is still pretty big. They do 7 billion in sales, but back in the early ’70s, Xerox was a monster. It’s estimated that over 10 billion copies a year were being done. Dave Young: 10 billion. Stephen Semple: That’s a lot of copies of copies of copies- Dave Young: Yeah. Once people had it, they were like, “I’m a printer.” Stephen Semple: Of copies. Yeah. Dave Young: I’m a publisher now. Stephen Semple: Yeah. In 1973, they did 3 billion in sales, which would equate to about 20 billion today. And they were close to 90% of the copier market with profit margins close to 20%. That’s just huge. It was one of the most valuable companies in the world. Dave Young: Until there started to be some competitors, Xerox became the generic word for a photocopy. Stephen Semple: Correct. Dave Young: “Give me a Xerox of this.” Stephen Semple: Yeah. So our story starts back with Joseph Wilson in Rochester, New York, which as we also know, is the home of Kodak. And Joseph was the new president of a company called Haloid, which was a Rochester based company doing photographic paper that was founded in 1906. And frankly, they were getting killed by Kodak, which at that point was 90% of the industry. And so Joseph’s trying to make headway in the photography paper business and basically is just like get nowhere. No matter what he does, he just cannot seem to create traction. Dave Young: One of his problems, Stephen? Stephen Semple: Yeah. Dave Young: Haloid. Stephen Semple: Yeah, maybe. Dave Young: That’s not a good name. Stephen Semple: Yeah, maybe. But what he decides to do is look for new opportunities. He’s actively searching through the National Patent Archive. So meanwhile, we got to think about this. It’s the mid ’40s. World War II has recently ended and the GI Bill is out there and it’s really fueling the growth of service-based industries. Banking, insurance is exploding. White collar is becoming now the thing to do. The American office is now basically the new engine of the US economy, but it’s still pretty primitive and labor-intensive. You think about going back to your whole thing, how did you copy and share information? Things were typically retyped or it was typed with a carbon paper, which meant you had one copy or a single document. Dave Young: Yeah, like a mimeograph sort of a thing maybe. Stephen Semple: Yeah, yeah. Single document could take an hour. And secretaries were manually retyping documents using carbon paper which created smudges or like as you said, the mimeograph machines, which were clunky Dave Young: Or send it, I mean, if you need more of that, you send it off to a printer. You send it off to somebody that can load it up on a printing press. Stephen Semple: Yeah. And for the people who don’t remember mimeograph machines, because I barely remember them, they stank. Dave Young: They smelled wonderful. Stephen Semple: Oh God, they were foul. They were this like, oh my God. Dave Young: The teacher would come in with a stack of stuff and hand it out and everybody would smell it. You just put it up your face and inhale. Stephen Semple: It was instead of glute. Dave Young: Weird, weird purple-y ink. I don’t even know how it worked, but yeah. Stephen Semple: So anyway, so Joseph is searching through patent archives and he comes across this invention by Chester Carlson, who’s a physicist who has got really bad arthritis and was looking for a better way to make copies. And Carlson had created, I got to read this, created an electrophotographic apparatus for dry writing. A process he turned xerography. Dave Young: Xerography, yes. Stephen Semple: There we go. Dave Young: And Haloid finally has a better name. Stephen Semple: Exactly. But the prototype was clumsy. It was large. It had been rejected by lots of people, but it caught Wilson’s eye. He could see the potential to revolutionize the office. And so it’s 1946 and he makes this big gamble. He purchases the patent for $10,000. Dave Young: Wow, okay. Stephen Semple: At that time, Haloid’s annual revenues is just a little over 100 grand. Dave Young: All right, man. Stephen Semple: So that’s a big bet. Dave Young: Huge. Stephen Semple: And the challenge was he had to turn this clumsy prototype into a viable commercial product. And there were a lot of challenges including the high heat from the fuser. It’s basically a toaster oven inside of a unit that bakes toner onto paper. Dave Young: Yeah. It puts a hydrostatic image of whatever’s on the paper on a blank piece of paper and little tiny particles of toner stick to that image and then you bake them in. Stephen Semple: Yeah. Dave Young: The little tiny microplastic things. Stephen Semple: And yes, it can catch fire. More on this later. Dave Young: Yeah. That’s why when you’re done making a bunch of copies, it all comes out warm. Stephen Semple: Yeah, exactly. So to raise money, Wilson sold some personal stock. He downsized a factory, did a bunch of things, raised about $12 million, which would be equivalent to about 140 million today and put it into development. So in 1954, after nine years of development, he has the first copier. It weighs 650 pounds. Dave Young: Sure. Stephen Semple: And it’s called the Xerox 914 because it used 9×14 paper. Dave Young: 9×14, that’s a choice. Stephen Semple: Right. Dave Young: Okay. Stephen Semple: So in addition to the $12 million that they invested, they’ve also got millions of dollars in debt. Dave Young: I’m stuck on the 9×14, Stephen. I’m thinking it’s the size of an accounting ledger, something like that. Stephen Semple: I didn’t look into why that size or… Because again, a lot of times what becomes standards change. Dave Young: Yeah. But see, that’s why you do what you do on this podcast and I do what I do. I’d have gotten stuck researching this into the 9×14 and followed that off into the woods and it would be a whole different podcast. Stephen Semple: It would be. It would be probably better. Dave Young: Oh, I don’t know about that. Anyway, I interrupted you again. Stephen Semple: So they’ve invested all this money. They’re millions in debt. They finally got a prototype and they basically say, “Okay, here’s what we got to do. We got to find a production partner to make this happen because we’re not going to produce this thing.” Dave Young: 600 pounds, yeah. Stephen Semple: Because that’s not what we do. So Wilson approaches IBM who basically at that point is a rising tech leader. Dave Young: Sure. Stephen Semple: And a lot of people don’t realize how old IBM is. I’ve got a picture of an old IBM cheese cutting machine. Dave Young: Yes, yeah. Stephen Semple: They were around forever. But anyway- Dave Young: I did a college internship at IBM. Stephen Semple: Oh, did you really? Wow. Dave Young: Where they made copiers. Yeah, I got copiers. Stephen Semple: Oh yeah. Oh, this comes back. Dave Young: Yeah, yeah. Stephen Semple: So IBM’s being run by Thomas Watson Jr. and he rejects the idea because basically it’s going to be about a $10,000 price tag and it’s going to fill a room all just for copying. He thinks this is a really, really bad idea. So Wilson doubles down, mortgages everything to make it themselves and they’re still facing these huge challenges. They meet a guy who works with equipment manufacturer AMF who’s developed this brand new sales strategy that he’s using for selling bowling alley equipment. Dave Young: Oh, is this the lease purchase? Stephen Semple: Yes, sir. Yes. So this is this brand new idea. What they decide to do is to lease the Xerox 914 for $95 a year and it would include 2,000 copies plus a nickel for each additional copy. Dave Young: Okay. So they’re selling copies, not machines. Yes, yes, yes. Stephen Semple: Right. Dave Young: Yeah. Stephen Semple: Here’s where it gets funny. It’s September 1959. The Xerox 914 makes its public debut in Manhattan. And during the demonstration, the machine bursts in the flames. Dave Young: Perfect. I’ll take three. Stephen Semple: Well, here’s the funny thing is it becomes this spectacle. It attracts onlookers and in fact the event is a resounding success. Dave Young: Yes, because the smart people will go, “Oh, they’ll fix that.” Stephen Semple: Right. Dave Young: Look, the copies came out, but they’ll fix the fire thing. Stephen Semple: Here’s what they did. Instead of re-engineering the device, remember, this is the late ’50s. The world’s a different place. Instead of re-engineering device, Wilson’s team ingeniously packages it with a fire extinguisher that they rebrand as the scorch eliminator. Dave Young: Hell yeah. Stephen Semple: Honest to God, I cannot make this up. The scorch eliminator. Oh, instead of re-engineering it, we’ll just give everybody a free fire extinguisher. Dave Young: That’s fantastic. I love that. So you could fill the paper tray with dough and pizza would come out the other end. These guys are geniuses. Stephen Semple: It’s a year later. It’s the 1960s and the machine is now available nationwide and it’s like a resounding earth-shattering success. Dave Young: Stay tuned. We’re going to wrap up this story and tell you how to apply this lesson to your business right after this. [Using Stories To Sell] Dave Young: Let’s pick up our story where we left off and trust me, you haven’t missed a thing. Stephen Semple: It’s a year later. It’s the 1960s and the machine is now available nationwide and it’s like, a resounding earth-shattering success. Production basically started at 50 per month and quickly went to 100 a day. At the end of the first year, they leased 200,000 [inaudible 00:14:32]. Dave Young: Well, this whole story, this is proof of what a good idea it was. Stephen Semple: Oh, absolutely. Dave Young: People don’t care if it catches fire as long as I get some copies out of it. Stephen Semple: Yeah. And the copier room becomes a new social hub. It becomes the way we share jokes. Dave Young: You want to make sure it has some overhead sprinklers. Stephen Semple: Well, you’ve got the scorch eliminator. You’re good. The company gets officially renamed Xerox Corporation and really it launches the information revolution. The stock quadruples, revenue soared at 250 million. Now, remember IBM? Dave Young: Oh yeah, they come around. Stephen Semple: The guys who rejected the idea. So the number of copies being made annually in the United States surges from 20 million to over 9 billion with Xerox basically dominating. And IBM, remember, took a pass, but they decided to enter the business in the early 1970s. They create their own copier. Now- Dave Young: They figured out that they were the biggest customer of Xerox. Stephen Semple: Yeah, essentially. Yeah. Dave Young: Yeah. Stephen Semple: Now, Joseph had a choice at this point. He knew they were leveraging his technology, but he also knew that it would be hard for him to win on legal grounds alone. So what he decided that he needed to do was to out innovate them. Dave Young: Okay. Stephen Semple: And so what Joseph Wilson envisioned was an office of the future because he saw computers coming. Remember, this guy was a visionary. He saw computers coming. Dave Young: Oh, yeah. I love this guy. Stephen Semple: But the problem, computers were large, difficult to use, but he was like, “I saw what happened with the photocopier, it went from being massive to small. Computers, same thing’s going to happen.” Dave Young: Yeah, yeah. Stephen Semple: So he decided to invest the equivalent of $20 million to establish PARC, the Palo Alto Research Center. Now, he hired a top computer scientist from ARPA, Robert Taylor, and gave him a clear mandate, “Pull together the brightest folks and create the next technological revolution.” The goal was for it to be this visionary think tank to leapfrog everybody. Here’s what they created. Gary Bernier and I did another podcast on this, which talked about this failure of Xerox. And there’s something I didn’t realize until doing this research, which kind of filled in a blank. So I actually recommend people go back and listen to that podcast. But here’s what they created, networking, the mouse, and the graphical user interface. If Xerox had developed that today, Xerox would be the giant of the industry. Could you imagine? Dave Young: Did they also figure out printing to like laser printing? Stephen Semple: I’m not sure whether it was laser printing- Dave Young: I’m sure who- Stephen Semple: But they did invent the whole idea of what you see is what you get, like that whole idea that the screen… But I’m not sure whether it was laser or not. Dave Young: Basically, when I was at IBM, that’s what they were making, were photocopiers that were also laser printers. You could go photocopy something by standing at the machine or you could send a document to it and have it printed. Stephen Semple: And so here’s the interesting thing because I’d always wondered why did these things not get to market? And here’s what actually happened. Before these things were finally created in terms of prototype level, Wilson died and the executives who were basically under him took over and they didn’t have the vision and they saw the paperless office as cannibalizing their business. Kind of like Kodak. Remember Kodak developed all the stuff for digital cameras and went, “Oh, well, we can’t do this because it’s going to cannibalize our business.” Dave Young: Yeah. WYSIWYG, mouse. That’s not the business. Stephen Semple: Right. Well, and remember we did an episode a little while ago where we were talking about the iPhone and the brilliance of Steve Jobs. He was willing to cannibalize their own business to make that happen. When you’re unwilling to cannibalize your own business, you got a problem. This is the same thing that killed Kodak. It’s the thing Jobs overcame to create the iPhone. So speaking about Jobs, the idea for the Mac came from a visit at PARC. In 1979, Jobs negotiated a tour of PARC in exchange for allowing Xerox to invest in Apple’s pre-IPO stock. And basically Jobs saw all this stuff, saw the mouse, saw the graphical user interface and went, “Holy crap, this is the future. This is the future.” So again, when Gary and I did this episode talking about Xerox and the failure of Xerox and the success of, har, Palo Alto, I never realized the timing of the death of the founder. Dave Young: Yeah. Stephen Semple: And it explains so much in terms of the execs not getting the idea. He would’ve. Joseph would’ve. Dave Young: Oh, I think so. Yeah, for sure. Stephen Semple: He would’ve been all over it. And Xerox would be a different company today. Dave Young: Yeah. Pretty amazing. Stephen Semple: But the things that I really loved on this is, again, Joseph was looking, he saw this world trend. He was in the photo paper business and he saw this whole idea of a copier, but also greater than that, it wasn’t just the idea of the copier. He saw what was the importance of the office and what was going on in office space. And the other part that I loved, and then proactively went looking for innovative ideas. And the part that I really love the most is they didn’t let the fire stop them. Dave Young: I do. Yeah, that’s so great. I don’t know. Yeah, some people say that’s a negative, but here’s a fire extinguisher. Stephen Semple: Right. Now granted, it was the late 50s, early 60s, different era. Dave Young: Here’s the thing, Stephen, offices can be kind of boring. And if you can introduce the prospect that there’s going to be a fire down in the copy room every now and then, there’s something to talk about while you’re standing around the water cooler. So when I worked for- Stephen Semple: It’s a whole different thing of lighting a fire under people’s ass. Dave Young: Oh yeah, yeah. I keep an emergency bag of marshmallows in my desk drawer in the hope that the copier catches fire. I did my college internship at IBM. It was a paid internship. So I can legitimately say I worked for IBM back in the day. It was back in the day when they actually manufactured stuff. IBM made machines. Now they just… I don’t even know what they do. They consult? Do they- Stephen Semple: There’s still a lot of IBM technology in the backgrounds, like with servers and things along… How much they manufacture versus just license, that I don’t know. Dave Young: So they’re a software and consulting company and felt all of that. But in 1984 they were still manufacturing, I worked for their Boulder, Colorado plant and it was 5,000 people working there. Stephen Semple: Amazing. Dave Young: And they made floppy drives and printers and printer/copiers. So you could buy a photocopier/printer the size of a large deep freeze and they’d install it. And I think they probably same thing, probably same business model. You’d pay by the copy, you’d rent the machine. One of the coolest things was that they had a laboratory at that facility. And in the laboratory, they had a copier lab where they had Xerox and Canon and all the other competitors, they had machines installed. They would call Xerox and say, “Hey, we need a machine, bring it here, install it in the lab and we want the usual maintenance agreement. So you got to send a Xerox guy to come maintain this thing.” And they would run that machine all day long making test patterns. They would print test patterns all day long and then evaluate them, put them under the microscope, see where that machine was performing and how it performed against theirs. I mean, it was kind of a cool lab. Who does that? Stephen Semple: So the other thing I just want to add on Xerox before we finish off, because I forgot to mention this as one of the lessons and this is actually probably the most important lesson. And that is, they looked at the guy selling bowling alley equipment and did the leasing. That was brand new, but they did an interesting twist to it that I think can be overlooked in terms of the real power of what they did. Because sure, leasing made it easier to purchase, but there’s two additional things that they did that made it easy to purchase 2,000 copies included. Which meant immediately if you’re going, “I’m leasing this for 100 dollars a year, 2,000 copies. Oh, that means my copy is so many cents a copy.” Dave Young: And if I never make another copy, yeah. Stephen Semple: Right away I’m saving money. So it allows for the financial justification becomes really easy. But here’s the other thing that becomes wild is, when I put the machine in, I’m not saying to people, “Hey, be careful how much you use this.” My goal is I want 2,000 copies to happen. Once I create the habit of people creating copies, it’s now embedded in the business. Dave Young: And then you have bean counters that tell you… Yeah. Stephen Semple: Well, could you imagine how different it would be is if it was less money, $50.05 a copy, you’d be telling everybody, “Now be careful how often you copy.” Dave Young: Yeah, but even then they were. Stephen Semple: Right, no, but the point is it allowed the habit. It allowed the habit to happen. It was just because you wanted to use up the 2,000, 2,000 copies. So anyway, I just think there was brilliant, especially for brand new technology, a brilliance in terms of how they structured that lease. Dave Young: They found an interesting business model to copy- Stephen Semple: They did. Dave Young: In a completely unrelated field. Stephen Semple: They did. Dave Young: And that’s the benefit of getting outside of your category to look for innovation. Stephen Semple: And then put a twist on it that eliminated friction of using that equipment because the first 2,000 copies were free. Anyway, I just thought it was brilliant. I just wanted to point that out. Dave Young: Yeah. I love, what was his name again, Wells? Stephen Semple: Joseph Wilson. Dave Young: Wilson. Well, I know there’s a W in there. Joseph Wilson. Stephen Semple: Yeah, Joseph Wilson. Yeah. Dave Young: All right. It was a good he didn’t name it Wilsonography. But I love it. I love the Xerox story. Thank you, Stephen. Stephen Semple: All right. Awesome. Thanks, David. Dave Young: Thanks for listening to the podcast. Please share us, subscribe on your favorite podcast app and leave us a big, fat, juicy five star rating and review at Apple Podcasts. And if you’d like to schedule your own 90 minute empire building session, you can do it at empirebuildingprogram.com.

368: Before You Merge: Five Factors Every Nonprofit Leader Must Weigh (Staci Barfield)Episode SummaryFor too many nonprofit leaders, the word “merger” lands like a verdict, a sign something has gone wrong. Staci Barfield, Senior Director of Consulting Excellence at Armstrong McGuire in Cary, NC, argues the opposite: a merger belongs early on a leader's strategic menu, not at the end. Drawing on her work facilitating the Arise Collective and MATCH (Mothers and Their Children) merger, Staci walks Patton through the full continuum of collaboration and unpacks the five factors every leader should weigh: mission alignment and strategic rationale, organizational and cultural fit, governance and leadership readiness, financial health and due diligence, and capacity to manage change while continuing to serve. She makes the case that funders are increasingly convening these conversations and that the strategic exercise itself has value even when it doesn't end in a merger. Listeners walk away with a practical framework for assessing any form of collaboration, and a sharper read on when a merger isn't a retreat but a way to magnify mission.About StaciStaci Barfield is Senior Director of Consulting Excellence at Armstrong McGuire, where she leads the methodologies, tools, and resources that equip the firm's advisor team to deliver consistent, high-impact client work. She came to the philanthropic sector after a long corporate career in information technology and business process improvement at Gap, Inc., Andersen Consulting (now Accenture), Sprint, AT&T, and Springs Industries. The pivot was catalyzed when a Hurricane Katrina deployment with the American Red Cross showed her that her business skill set translated directly to mission-driven work. From there she went on to serve as Vice President of Development for the National Multiple Sclerosis Society, Eastern NC Chapter, Executive Director of National Students of AMF, and CEO of Children's Flight of Hope, before joining Armstrong McGuire. Across all of it, Staci has been driven by the same instinct: maximizing an organization's opportunities for success through both strategic and operational initiatives.ResourcesConnect with Staci on LinkedInCase study referenced in the episode: Arise Collective + MATCH (Mothers and Their Children)Shared services model referenced in the episode: Ascend Nonprofit Solutions (Charlotte, NC)Companion episode: #350 with Andre Anthony: What Every Nonprofit Leader Needs to Know About MergersStaci's book recommendation: I Never Thought of It That Way: How to Have Fearlessly Curious Conversations in Dangerously Divided Times by Mónica GuzmánFollow Your Path to Nonprofit Leadership and please leave a review!Learn more about Staci's work and leadership resources at Armstrong McGuire (ArmstrongMcGuire.com)

Fonterra’s Chief Operating Officer reviews last night’s 1.5% lift in the GDT auction, a steady performance and largely in line with expectations. The welcomed improvements in SMP and WMP may have been expected an auction or two earlier, but better late than never. WMP 2.2%, SMP 3%, AMF 1.1%, Butter -2.6%, BMP 9% and Cheese -3.6%.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Kia ora. Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news of fractures emerging in the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and of OPEC itself. But first up today there was a dairy Pulse auction, but this one bringing few changes from the prior week's full event. Prices for butter, SMP and WMP were little-changed. But the AMF price did fall -4.4% to its lowest of the year so far. In Australia, it is worth noting that bond markets are in full bear more. They have driven their AGB benchmark 10 year bond yield to a 15 year high (price to a 15 year low), and these movements are replicated across the whole maturity curve. Expectations are high that the RBA is about to tackle inflation head-on with purposeful monetary policy actions starting next week. And there is spillover to New Zealand benchmark rates too. In the US, their weekly ADP employment report signaled a third week of good payroll gains in the private sector. And the Conference Board's survey of consumer sentiment was marginally better than expected in April. Most aspects deteriorated in this latest survey, except the labour market conditions that the ADP signals have licked up. It was similar for the Richmond Fed's factory survey which was little-changed but with a hint of positiveness. And the Dallas Fed services survey was marginally less negative. Across the Pacific, the Bank of Japan kept its short-term policy rate unchanged at 0.75% at its April meeting overnight, leaving borrowing costs at their highest level since September 1995. The widely expected decision passed by a 6–3 vote, amid uncertainty over the Iran conflict and surging energy prices. The three dissenters wanted a hike to 1.0%. In its quarterly outlook, the central bank raised its FY2026 core inflation outlook to 2.8% from 1.9%, citing higher crude oil prices that likely push up energy and goods costs. Overall, this review was more hawksih than expected. Korean manufacturing business sentiment rose in April to its highest since June 2024, with improvements across the board. India's industrial production is settling in with a growth rate of about 4%, the March level which it has been at (or above) for eight of the past nine months. In Europe, their has been a very big jump in inflation expectations. Eurozone median inflation expectations for the next 12 months jumped to 4.0% in March in the latest ECB survey, the highest level since October 2023 and up sharply from 2.5% in February. This was the largest monthly increase since early 2022, when Russia's invasion of Ukraine disrupted energy markets. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.35%, up +1 bp from this time yesterday. The price of gold will start today down -US$83 at US$4599/oz. Silver is down -US$2 at just under US$73.50/oz. American oil prices are up +US$3 at just on US$100/bbl, while the international Brent price is up +US$2, and now at US$111/bbl. And the UAE announced overnight that it is quitting OPEC, chafing at the export restrictions the cartel uses to manipulate prices. Some wee this as the beginning of the end of OPEC. We should also probably note that a Japanese supertanker has transited the Strait of Hormuz - with Iran's permission and in defiance of the US blockade. The Kiwi dollar is down -20 bps from yesterday at this time at 58.9 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -30 bps at 82 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at just on 50.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.3 which is down -20 bps from yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$76,178 and down -0.8% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 1.2%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora. Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the US-wished resumption of talks with Iran don't seem to be happening. The Strait of Homuz remains closed, and even if it was re-opened it is never going back to 'normal'. It seems Trump has effectively generated to global push necessary to transition away from fossil fuels. Oil company share prices are retreating. Big investors are trying to offload their coal assets. China's green-tech is in demand everywhere, including in the US. We are now in the age of electricity where demand is surging. Meanwhile the Warsh confirmation hearings in the US are following the predictable partisan scripts. But first, today's full dairy auction featured a low amount of product offered and sold. -10% less than for the same week a year ago. Overall prices were down almost -2.75% below the last full auction in USD, down -5.85% in NZD. Northern hemisphere seasonal volumes are rising so global supply is very adequate. The main weakness in today's auction were from butter (-7.9%, AMF (-9.6%) and mozzarella (-3.1%). But WMP basically held its own (-0.6%) and SMP rose (+3.2%). Demand out of China rose, offsetting the unsettled Middle East demand. In the US there was another strong indicator from the weekly ADP employment report, the second in a row. And US retail sales came in better than expected for March, up +4.6% from a year ago, about twice the increase as for February. And that is their biggest rise in a year. But of course much of this will be inflation-related and much just came from the spike in retail petrol prices. US pending home sales were up in March from February although the gain was less than in the prior month. That still leaves these residential real estate sales -1.1% lower than year ago levels. Taiwanese export orders blew past all expectations yet again coming in at US$91.1 bln for March, up +67% from a year ago and up +18.5% above the prior stunning record high. Adjectives fail to adequately describe what is happening here The German ZEW sentiment survey fell much sharper than the expected fall in April. In Australia, the ACCC's court case against supermarket giants Coles and Woolworths regarding deceptive pricing practices over 'specials' is capturing attention. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.29%, up +4 bps from this time yesterday.  And we should probably note that US private credit funds are about to report their March results and especially in the direct lending sector redemptions are expected to far exceed new investment. It is notable that big-money, wealthy investors are leading the retreat and probably leaving late-arriving retail investors with very damaged positions. Interestingly, there are similar, although not as severe, pressures in China's private credit markets too. The price of gold will start today down -US$92 at US$4715/oz. Silver is down -US$3.50 at US$76.50/oz. American oil prices are up +50 USc at just over US$89.50, while the international Brent price is up +US$3, and now at US$98/bbl. The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from yesterday at this time at 59 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +30 bps at 82.4 AUc. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at just on 50.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today also up +20 bps from yesterday at just on 62.4. The bitcoin price starts today at US$75,782 and off a minor -0.2% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has remained modest also at just on +/- 1.2%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Rabobank’s Senior Agricultural Analyst reviews last night’s GDT auction (down 3.4%) - WMP -0.7%, SMP -1.6%, BMP 0.7%, AMF -7.1%, Butter -8.1%, and Cheese -3.1%. Plus, we look at how the Middle East crisis is affecting red meat prices. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Stockholmsbörsen lyser illrött och Riksbanken har lämnat styrräntan oförändrad. Jens Magnusson, chefsekonom på SEB, och John Hernander, ansvarig för internationella placeringar på AMF, är med oss för att navigera ett oroligt omvärldsläge – samt prata om demografi och Volvo Cars.

Kia ora. Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news financial markets are relatively calm today mainly because the Persian Gulf situation has slipped into a stalemate with no new developments good or bad. But first up today, the overnight dairy auction brought little change in overall prices, but there was surprising variation between the commodities on offer. The net result was a tiny +0.1% gain in USD, +0.4% in NZD. But AMF rose +6.4% and SMP rose +5.2%. Offsetting these was WMP which dropped -4.0%. These shifts are much larger than the derivatives market signaled. In fact, the AMF price is back up to late 2024 levels, and the SMP is now at its elevated October 2022 levels - and apart from those pandemic distortions, back to the unusual 2014 levels. The WMP shift, which seems big, actually isn't when viewed from a slightly longer perspective. There was good demand, mainly from precautionary buying, and from everywhere except from China. That deserves watching. In the US, ADP weekly jobs report showed some weakness with just a +9000 gain nationally, far less than the expected gain and almost half what it has recorded over the past four weeks. They say there is a noticeable slowing in hiring. Business activity continued to decline significantly in the New York region's service sector in March, according to firms responding to the New York Fed's Business Leaders Survey. US pending home sales picked up marginally in February from January but are still -1.4% lower than year-ago levels. But there is wide variation, with the West (California) rising notably, the South and Mid West with minor gains, but the North East had notable declines. In Canada, their real estate markets did it tough in February, from both the economic uncertainty and prolonged bad weather. Elsewhere and as expected, the central bank of Indonesia held its policy rate at 4.75% where it has been since September 2025. In Germany there has been a huge drop in confidence as recorded by the ZEW sentiment index, all related to Trump's war in the Middle East and the downstream consequences for Europe. But perhaps somewhat surprisingly though, the negative reading was very minor. And as expected, the RBA raised its policy rate late yesterday by +25 bps to 4.1%. But what wasn't expected was how close the vote on the hike was. Five members voted for the rise, but four wanted to hold. In the end it was the growing risks of inflation that tipped the scale, made worse by the Middle East tensions and consequences. All the major banks have now announced pass-though rises to their variable rates. Globally, it is also probably worth noting that the airline industry's forecasts show that air travel is expected to double by 2050. Obviously that assumes the current geopolitical tensions subside. They see an outsized share of the expansion will come from China. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.20%, down -3 bps from yesterday at this time.  The price of gold will start today up +US$17 from yesterday at US$5001/oz. Silver is down -US$1 at US$79.50/oz. American oil prices are down -50 USc, at just on US$95/bbl, while the international Brent price is still just on US$102/bbl. The Straits of Hormuz remain no-go areas for most with the situation still extremely unstable. The ships transiting are those approved by Iran, which holds all the cards at present. The Kiwi dollar has risen today, up +10 bps against the USD from yesterday, now just on 58.6 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -40 bps at 82.5 AUc. We are up +10 bps against the yen. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 50.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today little-changed at just on 62.2. The bitcoin price starts today at US$74,160 and up +0.5% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 1.8%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Devenez un insider de la firme Traders 360:https://traders360.ca/product/infolettre-analyse-360Ma formation pour les investisseurs autonomes:https://formation-traders360.mykajabi.com/inscriptionInscrivez vous à Wealthsimple avec ce lien pour obtenir 25$:https://wealthsimple.com/invite/SEFIEADepuis le début de l'année 2026, les marchés boursiers ont été secoués par la baisse des grandes technologiques et la correction du secteur des logiciels. Maintenant, les manchettes ne parlent que du conflit militaire en Iran, du blocage du détroit d'Ormuz et de la forte hausse du prix du baril de pétrole. Dans cet épisode, j'explique comment un investisseur autonome peut tirer avantage de la volatilité actuelle pour trouver des opportunités d'investissement à long terme.Suivez-moi sur Instagram & TikTokIG: alextraders360TikTok: alexdemers360AVIS LÉGAL: Les propos de l'animateur ne doivent en aucun cas être interprétés comme une recommandation d'achat d'une action sur les marchés boursiers. Alexandre Demers n'est pas un conseiller financier et toutes les informations partagées dans ce balado ne reflète que son opinion personnelle. Consultez un professionnel accrédité auprès de l'AMF pour obtenir des conseils appropriés à votre situation.

Marie-Anne Barbat-Layani, présidente de l'Autorité des marchés financiers (AMF), était l'invitée de l'émission Ecorama du 24 février 2026, présentée par David Jacquot sur Boursorama.com. Parmi les sujets abordés : la construction d'un véritable marché de capitaux européen, la régulation des cryptoactifs avec l'entrée en vigueur de MiCA, la lutte contre les arnaques financières, l'attrait croissant des Français et notamment des plus jeunes pour la Bourse, ainsi que les nouveaux usages comme l'intelligence artificielle dans les décisions d'investissement. Hébergé par Audion. Visitez https://www.audion.fm/fr/privacy-policy pour plus d'informations.

Automatise ta gestion locative et sécurise tes loyers avec Monsieur Hugo !Tu peux tester gratuitement pendant 2 mois en cliquant ici : https://t.ly/3YbJuJe reçois Alexandre Toussaint dans cet épisode, pour parler des nouvelles formes d'investissement à envisager en 2026 ! Crowdfunding immobilier, investissement équestre, micro logements, rôle des plateformes régulées AMF, lecture des dossiers d'investissement : cet échange décrypte comment construire une stratégie d'investissement diversifiée en combinant l'immobilier avec d'autres classes d'actifs non traditionnelles.

John Hernander, chef på AMF för avdelningen utländska aktier, gästade Börsmorgon

Bienvenue dans ce nouvel épisode de Private Equity Vox !

Mon invitée du jour est Hélène de Comarmond, maire de Cachan, ville de 30 000 habitants aux portes de Paris, bien connue pour son campus universitaire.Née dans une histoire familiale marquée par la Résistance, l'exil et l'engagement, elle grandit avec l'idée que servir l'intérêt général n'est pas un choix, mais une responsabilité. De scientifique à haute fonctionnaire, elle devient maire de Cachan en 2018. Première femme de la ville à occuper cette fonction, elle est convaincue que la démocratie se construit d'abord à hauteur de ses habitants.Avec elle on a parlé de :L'action très concrète derrière l'engagement politique et du choix de passer par un parti, à l'heure où la confiance et la crédibilité s'effritent ;La démultiplication de la responsabilité lorsqu'on passe de conseillère municipale à maire ;Comment on fait vivre la démocratie autrement que par les urnes : en allant chercher celles et ceux qui ne parlent jamais ; Et de cette question qui revient sans cesse, surtout chez les femmes : la légitimité.Bonne écoute !_________________Rendez-vous sur Instagram @viedemaire et inscrivez-vous à la newsletter pour être tenu au courant des actualités du podcast et des prochains épisodes. Episode animé par Margot AlquierCrédits : Générique réalisé par Ophélie Baribaud  Hébergé par Ausha. Visitez ausha.co/fr/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.Hébergé par Ausha. Visitez ausha.co/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

La Banque Royale du Canada se serait fait flouer de plus de 17 millions. Un courtier hypothécaire dans la mire de l’AMF. Les États-Unis se dirigent vers une autre paralysie? Tour de table entre Isabelle Perron, Alexandre Dubé et Mario Dumont. Regardez aussi cette discussion en vidéo via https://www.qub.ca/videos ou en vous abonnant à QUB télé : https://www.tvaplus.ca/qub ou sur la chaîne YouTube QUB https://www.youtube.com/@qub_radioPour de l'information concernant l'utilisation de vos données personnelles - https://omnystudio.com/policies/listener/fr

Devenez un insider de la firme Traders 360:https://traders360.ca/product/infolettre-analyse-360Ma formation pour les investisseurs autonomes:https://formation-traders360.mykajabi.com/inscriptionInscrivez vous à Wealthsimple avec ce lien pour obtenir 25$:https://wealthsimple.com/invite/SEFIEAJe vous explique l'annonce de Donald Trump concernant le plafonnement des taux d'intérêt des cartes de crédit à 10% pendant un an. Je décortique le fonctionnement des cartes de crédit Visa et Mastercard. Je vous parle aussi des différences entre les modèles d'affaires des différentes compagnies de cartes de crédit. Finalement, je vous explique pourquoi j'ai profité de la réaction du marché pour acheter des actions d'American Express.Suivez-moi sur Instagram & TikTokIG: alextraders360TikTok: alexdemers360AVIS LÉGAL: Les propos de l'animateur ne doivent en aucun cas être interprétés comme une recommandation d'achat d'une action sur les marchés boursiers. Alexandre Demers n'est pas un conseiller financier et toutes les informations partagées dans ce balado ne reflète que son opinion personnelle. Consultez un professionnel accrédité auprès de l'AMF pour obtenir des conseils appropriés à votre situation.

Devenez un insider de la firme Traders 360:https://traders360.ca/product/infolettre-analyse-360Ma formation pour les investisseurs autonomes:https://formation-traders360.mykajabi.com/inscriptionInscrivez vous à Wealthsimple avec ce lien pour obtenir 25$:https://wealthsimple.com/invite/SEFIEAJe reviens sur l'annonce de Trump concernant le Venezuela et ses ressources pétrolières, une nouvelle qui a fait décrocher le secteur de l'énergie au Canada. Je replace les choses dans leur contexte et vous explique pourquoi le Venezuela n'est pas prêt de rivaliser avec la production canadienne. Ensuite, je vous parle de deux entreprises qui sont essentielles à l'économie nord-américaime : Enbridge et Canadian National Railway. Et pour finir, je décortique la remontée d'Intel après des années difficiles.Suivez-moi sur Instagram & TikTokIG: alextraders360TikTok: alexdemers360AVIS LÉGAL: Les propos de l'animateur ne doivent en aucun cas être interprétés comme une recommandation d'achat d'une action sur les marchés boursiers. Alexandre Demers n'est pas un conseiller financier et toutes les informations partagées dans ce balado ne reflète que son opinion personnelle. Consultez un professionnel accrédité auprès de l'AMF pour obtenir des conseils appropriés à votre situation.

This holiday season, you'll see many charity fundraisers. I've already mentioned three, and I have another lined up for next week's open thread. Many great organizations ask me to signal-boost them, I'm happy to comply, and I'm delighted when any of you donate. Still, I used to hate this sort of thing. I'd be reading a blog I liked, then - wham, "please donate to save the starving children". Now I either have to donate to starving children, or feel bad that I didn't. And if I do donate, how much? Obviously no amount would fully reflect the seriousness of the problem. When I was a poor college student, I usually gave $10, because it was a nice round number; when I had more money, I usually gave $50, for the same reason. But then the next week, a different blog would advertise "please donate to save the starving children with cancer", and I'd feel like a shmuck for wasting my donation on non-cancerous starving children. Do I donate another $10, bringing my total up to the non-round number of $20? If I had a spare $20 for altruistic purposes, why hadn't I donated that the first time? It was all so unpleasant, and no matter what I did, I would feel all three of stingy and gullible and irrational. This is why I was so excited ten-odd years ago when I discovered the Giving What We Can Pledge. It's a commitment to give a certain percent of your income (originally 10%, but now there's also a 1-10% "trial" pledge) to the most effective charity you know. If you can't figure out which charity is most effective, you can just donate to Against Malaria Foundation, like all the other indecisive people. It's not that 10% is obviously the correct number in some deep sense. The people who picked it, picked it because it was big enough to matter, but not so big that nobody would do it. But having been picked, it's become a Schelling point. Take it, and you're one of the 10,000 people who's made this impressive commitment. If someone asks why you're not giving more, you can say "That would dilute the value of the Schelling point we've all agreed on and make it harder for other people to cooperate with us". The specific numbers and charities matter less than the way the pledge makes you think about your values and then yoke your behavior to them. In theory we're supposed to do this all the time. Another holiday institution, New Year's Resolutions, also centers around considering your values and yoking your behavior. But they famously don't work: most people don't have the willpower to go to the gym three times a week, or to volunteer at their local animal shelter on Sundays, or whatever else they decide on. That's why GWWC Pledge is so powerful. No willpower involved. Just go to your online banking portal, click click click, and you're done. Over my life, I don't know if I would say I've ever really changed my character or willpower or overall goodness/badness balance by more than a few percent. But I changed the amount I donated by a factor of ~ten, forever, with one very good decision. Unless you're a genius or a saint, your money is the strongest tool you have to change the world. 10% of an ordinary First World income donated to AMF saves dozens of lives over a career; even if you're a policeman or firefighter, you'll have trouble matching that through non-financial means. Unless you're Charlie Kirk or Heather Cox Richardson, no amount of your political activism or voting - let alone arguing on the Internet - will match the effect of donating to a politician or a cause you care about. And no amount of carpooling and eating vegan will help the climate as much as donating to carbon capture charities. Not an effective altruist? Think it's better to contribute to your local community, school, theater, or church? I'll argue with you later - but for now, my advice is the same. Have you thought really hard about how you should be contributing to your local community, school, theater, or church? (The fundraising letters my family used to get from our synagogue left little doubt about what form of contribution they preferred). Have you pledged some specific amount? You won't give beyond the $10-when-you-see-a-blog-fundraiser level unless you take a real pledge, registered by someone besides yourself - trust me, I've tested this. The GWWC website is mostly pitched at EAs. But if you like churches so much, you can probably get the same effect by pledging to God - and He keeps His own list, and offers His own member perks. To the degree that you care about changing the world beyond yourself and your family, in any direction, then the odds are good that this one decision - whether or not to take a binding charitable Pledge - matters more than every other decision you'll ever make combined. Maybe an order of magnitude more. It's something you can do right now, in five minutes. You shouldn't do it in five minutes; you should sit down and think about it hard and talk it over with your loved ones and make sure you're really planning to keep whatever pledge you make. But you could. And then every time you saw a charity fundraiser on a blog, you could think "Oh, sorry, I'm already living my life in accordance with my altruistic values, no thanks!" You wouldn't even have to worry about how much to donate. I don't even donate to half the fundraisers that I signal-boost! So if you have time this holiday season, and you're financially secure enough that it won't be a burden, think about whether there's some way you want the world to be different and better, whether there are charities that work on it, and whether you want to donate. Then, take the pledge. If you decide you want to do something but it's too stressful to figure out what, take a 3% trial pledge here, give it to Against Malaria Foundation, and come back next year to see if you're ready for the 10% version. UPDATE: Bentham's Bulldog also thinks you should take the pledge - here's his post. And I'll match his offer - take the full 10% pledge this month, and comment below so that I know about it, and I'll give you a free lifetime subscription to ACX. https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/the-pledge

Devenez un insider de la firme Traders 360:https://traders360.ca/product/infolettre-analyse-360Ma formation pour les investisseurs autonomes:https://formation-traders360.mykajabi.com/inscriptionInscrivez vous à Wealthsimple avec ce lien pour obtenir 25$:https://wealthsimple.com/invite/SEFIEAJ'analyse les grands enjeux économiques et boursiers de 2026. On parle de la fin du mandat de Jerome Powell à la Fed, de la renégociation possible de l'ACÉUM, de l'évolution du marché immobilier canadien et des perspectives pour le TSX et le S&P 500. Je reviens aussi sur la performance exceptionnelle des marchés en 2025 et la montée des métaux précieux. En fin d'épisode, je vous explique pourquoi j'ai augmenté ma position dans PayPal (PYPL).Suivez-moi sur Instagram & TikTokIG: alextraders360TikTok: alexdemers360AVIS LÉGAL: Les propos de l'animateur ne doivent en aucun cas être interprétés comme une recommandation d'achat d'une action sur les marchés boursiers. Alexandre Demers n'est pas un conseiller financier et toutes les informations partagées dans ce balado ne reflète que son opinion personnelle. Consultez un professionnel accrédité auprès de l'AMF pour obtenir des conseils appropriés à votre situation.

Dans ce tout premier épisode de l'année, Chloé vous propose un guide complet pour comprendre la crypto sans jargon et sans stress. Si vous vous êtes promis de découvrir Bitcoin et les cryptomonnaies en 2026, cet épisode est fait pour vous.Au programme :

Dans cet épisode, je reçois Mark Kepeneghian, fondateur de Lise (anciennement Kriptown), pour revenir sur huit années d'un parcours hors norme : la création d'une nouvelle bourse européenne pensée pour les PME, bâtie sur la technologie DLT et un cahier réglementaire entièrement inédit.Nous avons parlé :De la genèse de Kriptown en 2017, née de l'intuition que la technologie Ethereum allait transformer durablement les infrastructures de marché.De l'obtention du statut PSAN en 2020–2021, qui a permis de lancer les premières opérations en actifs numériques pour financer startups et PME.De la vision inchangée depuis le départ : construire une véritable bourse nouvelle génération, malgré l'absence de cadre réglementaire à l'époque.De l'arrivée du régime européen “DLT Pilot Regime” et de l'agrément DLT TSS, qui permet à Lise de réunir en interne bourse et dépositaire central de titres, avec un règlement-livraison instantané sans intermédiaires.De leur positionnement unique sur la liquidité : un marché secondaire intégré, permettant aux investisseurs d'acheter-revendre rapidement et aux émetteurs de trouver un financement plus efficace.De la création d'analyses indépendantes semestrielles neutres pour les PME grâce à un partenariat avec Valutico, afin de résoudre le manque d'information et de stimuler la liquidité.De la volonté de rediriger l'épargne vers l'économie réelle, en facilitant l'accès des PME au marché et en simplifiant le parcours d'IPO jusqu'à 12 millions d'euros.Un échange, qui montre comment Lise entend transformer le post-marché, simplifier la chaîne d'intermédiation et redonner aux PME un accès transparent, rapide et efficace au financement coté.En fin d'épisode, la recommandation de Marc :Tous les épisodes Finscale mais en particulier celui avec Delphine d'Amarziti d'Euronext, le précédent épisode sur Kriptown, et l'épisode consacré à Spiko Glossaire des acronymes pour faciliter la compréhension de l'épisode:PSAN – Prestataire de Services sur Actifs Numériques : Statut réglementaire français (AMF) permettant à une entreprise d'offrir des services liés aux crypto-actifs, comme l'achat/vente, la conservation ou l'échange. DLT – Distributed Ledger Technology : Technologie de registre distribué (dont la blockchain fait partie). Elle permet de stocker et transférer des données ou des titres de manière transparente, sécurisée et sans intermédiaire central. DLT TSS – DLT Trading and Settlement System : Agrément européen du DLT Pilot Regime. Il autorise un acteur à combiner dans une seule plateforme les fonctions de marché réglementé (bourse) et de dépositaire central (règlement-livraison), avec exécution quasi instantanée.Liens utiles :Marc Kepeneghian: https://www.linkedin.com/in/kepeneghian/ Lise : https://lise.comValutico: https://valutico.com/***************************Finscale, c'est bien plus qu'un podcast. C'est un écosystème qui connecte les acteurs clés du secteur financier à travers du Networking, du coaching et des partenariats.

本期节目是我们与《硅谷101》的一次串台，书接上回LVMH的发展史，我们再来聊聊LVMH与爱马仕的恩怨情仇。12月初，爱马仕的第五代继承人之一尼古拉斯·皮埃奇，将LVMH告上了法庭，理由是对方夺走了自己价值140亿欧元的600万股爱马仕股份。整个案件起源于皮埃奇的两个身边人：他的40年好友兼私人财富顾问，以及他最近爱到视如己出的一位摩洛哥园丁。事情的背后却牵涉到了奢侈品行业的一场世纪收购大战：2010年10月，LVMH突然宣布它已经获得了爱马仕接近20%的股份，爱马仕家族则团结了52名家族成员，聚集起手里的股份启动了反击，赶走了门口的野蛮人。这个过程中，曾经爱马仕最大的个人股东皮埃奇没有站在家族保卫战这边，他的财富在最近的调查中被认定早早就转移到了LVMH那边……| 主播 |肖文杰、约小亚| 嘉宾 |麻花，硅谷101特约研究员| 时间轴 |糊涂的爱马仕最大个人股东，和他消失的140亿欧元04:46，尼古拉斯·皮埃奇，爱马仕家族的异类05:39，爱马仕的股票构成，散落在全球各地的200位家族股东07:55，疑案初现，园丁老婆打了财富顾问的小报告13:43，财富顾问弗雷蒙德，前科累累的40年好友16:40，天价爱马仕股票，居然采用了“不记名”的方式21:18，无休止的诉讼，卡塔尔王室也被牵扯进来了22:30，承认600万股份给了LVMH后，财富顾问自杀了26:28，再谈皮埃奇，一个太容易被忽悠的有钱人LVMH的收购奇袭，和爱马仕的家族保卫战30:47，步步为营，LVMH拿下了爱马仕两成股份34:57，期权互换方案，帮助LVMH绕过监管偷天换日45:05，LVMH的假日突袭，“我手里有你们很多股份”48:22，爱马仕的反击，联合52名成员的家族保卫战52:41，最大个人股东皮埃奇，并没有站在爱马仕这边55:18，AMF调查报告：皮埃奇的股票已经卖给了LVMH01:01:03，闹剧收尾：LVMH被罚了也赚足了什么造就了资本最爱的爱马仕01:05:09，从二级市场到二手市场，爱马仕为什么那么香01:09:14，极致稀缺供给，塑造了爱马仕的极致奢侈品定位01:13:33，爱马仕的克制，为什么其他公司学不会01:15:45，传统的爱马仕家族，为什么要选择公开上市| 延伸资料 |爱马仕家族的家族谱系图（来源：日内瓦论坛报）Vol.234 小历史 | LVMH的一年、一个月和一天Wall Street Journal-How a Handyman's Wife Helped an Hermès Heir Discover He'd Lost $15 BillionThe Journal-The Case of the Missing $15 Billion FortuneLe Monde-L'héritier Hermès, le jardinier et les 12 milliards d'euros disparusINSEAD-《Hermès Paris》New York Times-The Strange Case of an Hermès Heir, an Emir and a Deal Gone WrongLe Monde-Les héritiersLe Journal du Dimanche-Face à LVMH, le front Hermès se fissureLe Monde-Le plan très secret de LVMH pour entrer chez Hermès法国AMF在2013年发布的针对LVMH收购爱马仕股份的调查报告爱马仕的历年财报LVMH-Exceptional distribution of Hermès International sharesAcquired Podcast-HermèsWWD-Hermes To Make Debut On Paris Bourse June 3| 后期制作 |AMEI| 声音设计 |刘三菜| 收听方式 |你可以通过小宇宙、苹果播客、Spotify、喜马拉雅、网易云音乐、QQ 音乐、荔枝、豆瓣等平台收听节目。| 认识我们 |微信公众号：第一财经 YiMagazine联系我们：thatisbiz@yicai.com

Bienvenue dans ce nouvel épisode de Private Equity VOX !Aujourd'hui, nous recevons Alexandre Darsa, cofondateur et CEO d'O2 Capital AM, société de gestion indépendante agréée par l'AMF en juillet 2024 et spécialisée dans la dette privée immobilière en Europe.Alexandre a un parcours qui marie droit des affaires, entrepreneuriat opérationnel et finance structurée. Après avoir démarré comme avocat, il crée Acetis, une banque d'affaires M&A. En 2008, en pleine crise financière, il fait un pari audacieux : racheter Sequabat, une société de construction de bâtiments clés en main dans le sud de la France. Il la redresse, la développe pendant huit ans.De cette aventure, Alexandre tire une conviction profonde : la valeur se crée quand la finance comprend le terrain. C'est cette conviction qui le pousse à créer O2 Capital AM en 2017, puis à franchir une nouvelle étape en 2024 avec l'agrément AMF.Dans cet épisode, Alexandre nous explique :→ Comment son expérience opérationnelle dans le béton nourrit sa stratégie d'investissement en dette privée→ Le positionnement d'O2 Capital sur le segment du bridge lending entre 5 et 30 millions d'euros→ Pourquoi la dette privée immobilière représente un marché de 70 milliards d'euros en Europe→ Les instruments de financement : obligations simples vs obligations convertibles, et pourquoi O2 Capital privilégie la première→ La fiducie sûreté : l'outil juridique qui permet de reprendre le contrôle d'un actif sans passer par l'equity→ Les enjeux de gouvernance et de gestion du risque dans la dette senior→ Sa vision à 3 ans : atteindre 200 millions d'euros sous gestion avec le fonds Oxygen, institutionnaliser la classe d'actifs, et s'étendre géographiquement en EuropeAlexandre nous partage également sa philosophie : l'indépendance n'est pas un slogan marketing, mais une manière d'investir et de comprendre le risque autrement. Dans un marché où les acteurs institutionnels privilégient les tickets au-dessus de 50 millions d'euros, O2 Capital a fait le choix d'une niche sélective où les relations, la structuration sur-mesure et le suivi opérationnel font la différence.Un épisode passionnant sur la dette privée immobilière, qui casse les idées reçues et démontre qu'un prêteur peut aussi être un opérateur agile.Bonne écoute !https://www.pe3.iohttps://www.linkedin.com/company/pe-cube/Hébergé par Ausha. Visitez ausha.co/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

GDT results last week were mixed with AMF prices up but butter prices down and WMP prices counter seasonally increasing. Nate Donnay talks with Niall Alsafi about GDT and what is driving the divergent price action.

In this episode of Vineyard Underground, Fritz welcomes Dr. R. Paul Schreiner, recently retired research plant physiologist from the USDA, for a deep dive into the fascinating world of mycorrhizal fungi and their impact on vineyard health. With over two decades of research experience in grapevine physiology and root biology, Dr. Schreiner shares the critical roles these fungi play in nutrient uptake, root efficiency, drought tolerance, and overall soil structure. Fritz and Dr. Schreiner explore what arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) are, how they form symbiotic relationships with grapevine roots, and why grapes are considered “super hosts.” They discuss how AMF enhances phosphorus acquisition, especially in low-P soils, and how they support the uptake of other nutrients like potassium, zinc, and copper. They also talk about factors that suppress or encourage fungal colonization, such as excessive fertilization, cultivation, cover cropping, and herbicide use. Dr. Schreiner also previews ongoing research from the High-Resolution Vineyard Nutrition Project, which is helping redefine best practices for tissue sampling and nutrient timing. Whether you're planting a new vineyard or managing an established one, this episode offers an essential look at how understanding underground biology can elevate your vineyard management decisions. In this episode, you will hear: How grapevines form symbiotic relationships with mycorrhizal fungi Why phosphorus is the most important nutrient supported by AMF The effects of nitrogen and phosphorus fertilization on fungal colonization Whether commercial AMF inoculants are worth the investment Practices that promote healthy fungal populations in vineyard soil Follow and Review: If you enjoyed this episode, be sure to follow the podcast and leave a 5-star review on Apple Podcasts! Your support helps us reach more listeners.

Jarden’s Head of Commodities comments on the first GDT auction of the new season - “The positive momentum that we saw coming into the season, right up until the penultimate event, now looks to be lost with the overall event falling 1.6% and several of the key individual products coming under pressure. WMP -3.7%, SMP -1.1%, AMF 1.4%, Butter 0%, BMP -6.1% and Cheese -4.2%.”See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Jarden’s head of commodities says giving only a cursory view you would be forgiven for being excited by last night’s unchanged GDT auction result, [WMP 0.2%, SMP -0.4%, AMF -1.8%, Butter 1.1%, and Cheese 1%] when of course the devil lies in the detail. Given how the index is compiled, he says the flat overall result may hide some of the more dramatic moves in the numbers that count to New Zealand dairy farmers.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

What do bowling pins and Italian 2 strokes have to do with Harley Davidson? That would be the HD ownership of Aermacchi and the AMF ownership of Harley Davidson during the 60s and 70s. At this time, HD sold scooters, dirtbikes, minibikes and even a moped alongside the big cruisers they are still known for today. Why did they all go away, and will we ever see the diversification of HD again? But first we start with getting to know young riders Sophia and Arden, Liza plays a game of Moto Mad Libs, and we finish with a race update from John and emails. With Liza, Stumpy John, Miss Emma, Neil, Sophia, Arden and Bagel. Join our Discord at discord.gg/hpRZcucHCT www.motorcyclesandmisfits.com motorcyclesandmisfits@gmail.com www.patreon.com/motorcyclesandmisfits www.zazzle.com/store/recyclegarage www.youtube.com/channel/UC3wKZSP0J9FBGB79169ciew adifferentagenda.com/products/the-lost-tribe-25 www.leodescapes.com/ breakingawayadventures.com/misfits-rally-vol-3 motorcyclesandmisfits.com/shop

Each year, all industry partners and exhibitors are encouraged to apply for the Industry Innovation Award. This is a competitive product award for companies exhibiting at the AAHKS Annual Meeting. At the 2024 Annual Meeting, we presented Solenic Medical with the award for creating their patented technology using alternating magnetic fields (AMF). AMF generates thermal medical on the surface of the implants; aiming to eradicate biofilms, a common culprit in implant infections. This innovative solution offers a safer and more cost-effective alternative to invasive surgeries. Cory L. Calendine, MD the Chair of the AAHKS Industry Relations Committee had the pleasure of speaking with James Lancaster at Solenic Medical about the award-winning product. Listen and learn all about AMF, a first-of-its-kind, non-contact device, an IDE authorization for first-in-human use in the operating room setting. Respectfully, this product is contributing to significant leaps forward in orthopaedic care. Enjoy, and thanks for listening to AAHKS Amplified! In This Episode: Cory L. Calendine, MD James Lancaster   The post The 2024 AAHKS Industry Innovation Award Winner – Solenic Medical first appeared on AAHKS.

In this episode, Vivek Joshi interviews Shari Litow, the Director of Aftermarket and Services at AMF Bakery Systems. Shari shares her journey from the chemicals industry to capital equipment, discussing her role in enhancing customer experience and service innovations. She emphasizes the importance of building a digital experience, managing change effectively, and the challenges of finding and training talent in a rapidly evolving workforce. Shari also highlights the significance of operational excellence in driving growth and offers valuable lessons for new leaders in the industry.Takeaways:Shari Litow is the Director of Aftermarket and Services at AMF Bakery Systems.AMF focuses on capital equipment for the baking industry.Shari's role includes parts management, technical documentation, and customer service.Transitioning from chemicals to capital equipment involved significant learning.Customer experience is central to AMF's strategy.Building a digital experience is crucial for customer engagement.Change management requires involving employees in the process.The industry faces challenges in finding skilled labor.Operational excellence can drive growth in aftermarket services.Surrounding yourself with knowledgeable people is key to success.

Jeudi 21 novembre 2024, SMART TECH reçoit Michel Sauvade (maire de Marsac en Livradois et co-président de la commission numérique, AMF) , Angélique Gérard (présidente fondatrice, STEM ACADEMY) , Gérard Haas (avocat et Coprésident de l'association, "Les Jurisnautes") et Alain Garnier (Président, Jamespot)-----------------------------------------------------------------------SMART TECH - Le magazine quotidien de l'innovationDans SMART TECH, l'actu du numérique et de l'innovation prend tout son sens. Chaque jour, des spécialistes décryptent les actualités, les tendances, et les enjeux soulevés par l'adoption des nouvelles technologies.

Quotes“There is a producer who said, and it's kinda cruel, but they were like, "Remember when Mrs. Miler was dying for like 18 episodes and every episode was saying she was going to die this week and then she said no and kept living. Like what do we do?'" (15:51-16:03 | Christi)“You know I wouldn't know what an AMF is. I never even knew what LOL was until recently.” (21:54-22:00 | Kelly)“'I might just be allergic to something. You're allergic to Dance Moms. It's not your comfort show it's your trigger." (43:08-43:13 | Christi & Kelly)“Nevermind. I was going to say she's so nervy, but I'm about to be a giant bitch coming up so nevermind." (1:13:40-1:13:52 | Christi)LinksSubscribe to us on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC50aSBAYXH_9yU2YkKyXZ0w Subscribe to our Patreon: www.patreon.com/backtothebarreThank you to Ashley Jana for allowing us to use Electricity!! Follow her on IG HERE: https://instagram.com/ashleyjanamusic?igshid=YmMyMTA2M2Y=Download Electricity HERE: https://music.apple.com/us/album/electricity/1497482509?i=1497482510Follow Christi on IG: www.instagram.com/christilukasiakFollow Kelly on IG: www.instagram.com/kellylhyland Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Why should we consider slowing AI development? Could we slow down AI development even if we wanted to? What is a "minimum viable x-risk"? What are some of the more plausible, less Hollywood-esque risks from AI? Even if an AI could destroy us all, why would it want to do so? What are some analogous cases where we slowed the development of a specific technology? And how did they turn out? What are some reasonable, feasible regulations that could be implemented to slow AI development? If an AI becomes smarter than humans, wouldn't it also be wiser than humans and therefore more likely to know what we need and want and less likely to destroy us? Is it easier to control a more intelligent AI or a less intelligent one? Why do we struggle so much to define utopia? What can the average person do to encourage safe and ethical development of AI?Kat Woods is a serial charity entrepreneur who's founded four effective altruist charities. She runs Nonlinear, an AI safety charity. Prior to starting Nonlinear, she co-founded Charity Entrepreneurship, a charity incubator that has launched dozens of charities in global poverty and animal rights. Prior to that, she co-founded Charity Science Health, which helped vaccinate 200,000+ children in India, and, according to GiveWell's estimates at the time, was similarly cost-effective to AMF. You can follow her on Twitter at @kat__woods; you can read her EA writing here and here; and you can read her personal blog here.Further reading:Robert Miles AI Safety @ YouTube"The AI Revolution: The Road to Superintelligence", by Tim UrbanUncontrollable: The Threat of Artificial Superintelligence and the Race to Save the World, by Darren McKeeThe Nonlinear NetworkPauseAIDan Hendrycks @ Manifund (AI regrantor)Adam Gleave @ Manifund (AI regrantor)StaffSpencer Greenberg — Host / DirectorJosh Castle — ProducerRyan Kessler — Audio EngineerUri Bram — FactotumMusicBroke for FreeJosh WoodwardLee RosevereQuiet Music for Tiny Robotswowamusiczapsplat.comAffiliatesClearer ThinkingGuidedTrackMind EasePositlyUpLift[Read more]

We're talking about Google's layoffs and how it affects Flutter and Dart, then AMD is working to push AMF code into FFMPEG, and it's time for Open Source to grow up. RHEL has an AI offering, NVidia is suggesting Open Source kernel drivers, and Zed is coming to Linux. Then there's Pi Connect pulling a Sherlock, KDE working on color management, and a bit of a history lesson on where we came from. For tips, we have the Radion TUI radio player, || : to ignore errors in a script, the Mixxx DJ app for all those underground raves, and PanWriter for markup editing. You can catch the show notes at https://bit.ly/3UTCJ5C, and we'll see you next time! Host: Jonathan Bennett Co-Hosts: Rob Campbell, David Ruggles, and Jeff Massie Want access to the video version and exclusive features? Become a member of Club TWiT today! https://twit.tv/clubtwit Club TWiT members can discuss this episode and leave feedback in the Club TWiT Discord.