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Play Episode Listen Later Mar 2, 2026 33:24

Flush season is here. Protein solids are up. Global milk production is up. So… Where's all the skim milk powder? In this episode of The Milk Check, host Ted Jacoby III and the Jacoby team sits down with Martijn Goedhart and Henk-Jan Bouwman of Cefetra Dairy for a European perspective on the volatility rippling through global dairy markets. We talk through how traders got caught short and why the spring flush might not loosen up the skim milk powder/nonfat dry milk market. Plus, are we pricing U.S. out of the export market? We'll get you up to speed on: Why skim solids are being pulled away from dryers and into protein streams How hand-to-mouth buying turned into a short squeeze What record-high butter stocks in Europe mean for upside potential Tune in to hear how Europe and the U.S. are navigating one of the most volatile stretches in recent memory. L If you're making sourcing or coverage decisions right now, don't miss The Milk Check episode 94: The Dryer's Getting Robbed. Got questions? We'd love to hear them. Submit below, and we might answer it on the show. Ask The Milk Check TMC-Intro-final Ted Jacoby III: [00:00:00] Coming up on The Milk Check. Martijn Goedhart: You have supply growing, and then you think, “Oh, we’re gonna build stocks.” But then, demand caught up. And quite viciously. Ted Jacoby III: Welcome to the Milk Check from T.C. Jacoby and Company, your complete guide to dairy markets, from the milking parlor to the supermarket shelf. I’m Ted Jacoby. Let’s dive in. This week we are excited to have two special guests, Martijnjn Goedhart and Henk-Jan Bouwman from Cefetra Dairy in the Netherlands. We’ve been working closely with these guys for some time and we thought it would be a great idea given all the craziness and dairy markets going on in the United States, to ask them to give us a little bit of perspective on what’s going on in Europe so we can get a feel for how the global markets are affecting our U.S. dairy markets. Martijn, Henk, thanks for joining us today. Martijn Goedhart: Thanks for having us, Ted. Henk-Jan Bouwman: Thank you, Ted. Ted Jacoby III: I feel like what’s going on in nonfat right now more has an origin in the U.S., but I also noticed that you guys started to feel that maybe this market was gonna be a little bit shorter than we expected over in Europe before we realized it in the U.S. [00:01:00] Tell us about the skim milk powder market in Europe and what’s been going on the last month. Martijn Goedhart: In Europe, we’ve been overwhelmed by milk production growth since the second half of 2025, due to bluetongue, late calving, second peak, as some of us call it. And that has resulted in good outputs, and that output needs to go to the commodities. So, we’ve seen butter stocks build up significantly, and everyone assumed that that would mean that the skimmed stocks were also building up because that’s basically the other product you’re gonna produce when you do butter, right? A few things we, I think, overlooked is like the general protein trend in the world and the demand for protein, both on the whey side as well as on the milk side nowadays. So a lot of protein has ended up in other products than your typical skimmed nonfat production bucket. Adding to that, Europe has been the most competitive source in the world market for a long time. Demand wasn’t great because buyers were buying hand-to-mouth because they would basically wait for that carry to come toward them and buy at the lowest price at the last moment. But [00:02:00] now we see that the exports out of Europe have been great. And that’s been keeping the market clean. I think some traders speculated on lower prices and got caught short, basically needed to cover. And that’s where we are at now. And I think more than ever, if you look at NZX (New Zealand Exchange), this all started with a firmer GDT (Global Dairy Trade), with China stocking up a bit. So, if you look at NZX, CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) and EEX (European Energy Exchange), those markets are starting to correlate better than they did before because everyone’s looking at the developments of the other exchanges and then draw their conclusions for their own home base. And yeah, that cocktail, together with some U.S. developments that we’re gonna dive into, has caused record-high volatility over the last few weeks. Ted Jacoby III: So, Martijn, you’re telling a story that sounds very familiar ‘ cause that’s exactly what we’ve seen here in the U.S. We’re not making anywhere near as much nonfat dry milk as we expected because the protein demand is forcing those skim solids into other places. What are those other places in Europe? Where is that protein being used and what is it being made into in Europe right now? Martijn Goedhart: I think there’s two main [00:03:00] streams. Bear in mind that the milk pressure in Europe was so high that you need to burn milk, and the way to do that is to produce casein. So, I think casein production has increased by like double-digit numbers, that’s not because it was such a nice valorization, you can just dry more milk per hour. And considering the liquid markets over the last few months, during our low season, liquid milk was trading way below the commodity equivalent, proving that there’s a surplus of liquid milk that can’t be processed by drying it or churning it. So, that’s one part. The other part is, it’s the same in the U.S. We’ve been around here for a few days now, but in Europe, you see the same: everything is protein fortified, extra protein, in basically everything you can buy. So, a lot of protein that is processed in line before it even reaches the other class. So, like the dryers basically. Ted Jacoby III: Martijn and Henk, do you guys think that the skim milk powder market in Europe has tightened up primarily because everybody who was living hand-to-mouth saw the market started going up, and they decided they wanted to buy more now because they wanted to get the product at a lower price before the price [00:04:00] went higher, and then they just started chasing the market? Or do you think demand has shifted and there’s a true increase in the demand for the product? Henk-Jan Bouwman: There’s two things to touch upon here, Ted. One is, you’re absolutely right: people were buying hand-to-mouth, and they were actually rewarded for doing that because everybody believed that the price of tomorrow was better than the price of today. And for a fairly long period of time, they got rewarded for that. That also led to traders being short, as Martijn touched upon. From a demand perspective, yes, there’s actually quite some demand, and people also realize that they have to turn to Europe to find their cheapest skim. That also creates a bit of a demand pull towards European skim, which makes the price go up. And we’ve seen that, in particular, in low heat in comparison to medium heat. But in general, export markets for us are pretty strong, and, I would say, pretty much all the demand ends in European skim milk powder of origins. Josh White: Is anybody extending days in inventory? Do we think that there’s a short squeeze driving international clients to buy a couple extra weeks, a month, more than that of product? The nature of your question, Ted, [00:05:00] is what’s caused us to tighten up on that product? Is it truly demand for nonfat dry milk, or is it just reduced production overall? And I think maybe it’s both in a way. On the one hand, Martijn mentioned that the catalyst of this was actually a GDT event where China stepped in and bought more. And I think that we’ve been talking about the disappearance of China as a structural buyer of milk powder for quite some time. But their stocks to use ratio has been reported to be fairly low, and maybe they felt it was time to extend some days of inventory. At the same time, you evidenced what’s happening in the U.S., And Martijn alluded to it a little bit in Europe as well, that the pull for dairy protein in general is actually vacuuming some solids away from the dryer, and particularly the SMP or the nonfat dryer. So, is it both? Are we seeing people look to build a little bit more safety stock at the same time that our production is down a bit because protein demand overall is robbing our supply. Henk-Jan Bouwman: There’s a, there’s a couple of things to touch upon, Josh. One is in this whole upward movement, there were quite some international buyers [00:06:00] who still had demand open, for instance, for Q2 and Q3, and decided to step in and said, “Hey, this is a moment to buy, to cover that demand, because I am anticipating an upward movement.” So, in that sense, I’m completely with you. Producers did the same, as well. For them it was also attractive to lock some forward sales. And that has led to lesser availability of skim in EU. And that basically also caused the rally to continue. Martijn Goedhart: I think the difference with the U.S., as I understand it, is we have never not been able to buy product during this whole volatility. So, producers were always offering, customers would like step in, step out. If they really need it, they would book. They were also cautious. And we went up, then we went down, then we went up again. But in that down movement, customers were like, “Yeah, you see, so it’ll come off again.” So, that didn’t prompt them to build any length. I think producers did fairly well in putting a fundament below their sales book for the flush that’s upcoming. Traders are holding a fair bit of cash product right now for the next three, four months. It’s not tight as [00:07:00] such, but you see that certain buyers need certain origins that are scarce. So, it’s very much about the origin, the spec, and the product that you have, whether you can monetize on those higher prices. Ted Jacoby III: It seems to me, just listening to you guys talk about Europe, that the U.S. and Europe are both experiencing a very similar phenomenon in our supply chain. Demand for protein is pulling skim solids away from the dryer, first and foremost, which means on a skim milk powder / nonfat dry milk supply-demand balance, you’re reducing the supply even though we are both experiencing pretty significant increases in milk production. The traditional math is: more milk means more skim milk powder. It didn’t happen this time around, and it caught people by surprise. The demand for protein in Europe, just like in the U.S., is exceptional right now. But then that makes me ask the question: if we have less skim solids, in the form of skim milk powder and nonfat, in the global supply chain, is this increase in price directly proportional [00:08:00] to reduced supply, so we got more people buying because they want to get in the front of it. So, you got this bubble. But you also have had this slow decrease in overall skim milk powder demand going on. Like a slow creep every year. I’m not sure if it’s about 1%, but we’ve all kind of felt it that the global demand for skim milk powder has been just slowly weakening, but this sudden supply crunch was a bigger issue than the slow decrease in demand, and it caused this price bubble that’s just gonna take some time to work itself out. And if the protein continues to take the skim solids away from the dryers, it may be a really long time before it works itself out. Martijn Goedhart: Q4 of global SMP export has been very strong, but Q3 and Q2 were relatively weak. I’d have to look at how the balance looks at the end of the year. Also, the export figures have been more volatile than Ted Jacoby III: Yeah. Martijn Goedhart: Before. So, I think everyone thought like, “Okay, demand is sluggish. We have so much milk in the U.S. We have so much milk in Europe. [00:09:00] New Zealand’s season is looking good.” So, in your mind, you extrapolate that demand. Then, you have supply growing, and then you think, “Oh, we’re gonna build stocks.” But then, demand caught up. And quite viciously. So, that’s the thing I think people underestimated. We’re in a situation where we don’t see any old stocks or inventories building up. Josh White: So I wanna throw three thoughts out. On the first hand, we know our global milk supply is year over year up significantly. Martijn Goedhart: Yeah. Josh White: On a solids basis, protein and fat are up significantly. We’re talking about the overflow valve, the powder stocks not being very robust, and that on the end-user level, globally, people didn’t have a lot of additional days of inventory. So, that would suggest on one hand, maybe we need all this milk. Maybe we need it. Demand for protein and other products is up enough that we need all this milk. But then on the other hand, I think there’s probably two things that we need to be careful that we don’t overreact to. There’s seasonality in our products. We know that the northern hemisphere heavy milk production season is upon us. We’ve [00:10:00] started in California. We’re gonna continue to see our daily milk volumes increase seasonally in the U.S. as we get into the second quarter. Another thing that I’m wondering being, you guys with more international trade experience coming out of Europe is: buying seasonality. So, Ramadan every year moves up a little bit; Chinese New Year, there’s usually a surge leading up to it. And it’s gotten to the point where that was almost a collision with the traditional holiday season of December. Is it possible that we just robbed demand from the first quarter, and everyone tried to get in front of some of that demand in the late third and early fourth quarter, and that we’re about to go into a unique seasonal period where customers have now gotten scared. They’ve extended a few days in inventory, the structural demand won’t be there at the same time that the northern hemisphere flush is upon us. I mean, is it possible that we were just short squeezed based on seasonal issues in the first quarter, and we’re gonna resolve that with plenty of product in the second quarter? One final note I think that we [00:11:00] shouldn’t forget is that our year over year comparables are against a disease-infested 2024. We had bird flu in the U.S.; we had bluetongue to in Europe. How much are we actually over 2023 going into 2024. Ted Jacoby III: On 2023 versus 2024, I think Europe, you guys were down like a half a percent to 1% in 24. Does that sound about right? Martijn Goedhart: 23, 24 was pretty much flat. Ted Jacoby III: Mm-hmm. Martijn Goedhart: And 24, 25 we added like a hundred thousand metric tons. So, like, 6%, 7%. 24, 25. Ted Jacoby III: So you guys had a couple of flat years, followed by a year where you added quite a bit. Martijn Goedhart: Yeah. Ted Jacoby III: Which actually is pretty similar to what happened in the U.S. Yes. We had some disease like avian flu , and bird flu hit California ,and we were down in some places and up in others, but overall we were flat. But the solids were up a little bit. Martijn Goedhart: Yeah. Yeah. Ted Jacoby III: While dairy prices were decent, I didn’t feel like we were facing a massive supply scarcity in those two flat years, which is one of the [00:12:00] things that has me very perplexed about what’s going on now. Because it’s one thing to say, Hey, there’s all this new demand for protein. All the skim solids are going to protein, and that’s why there isn’t any skim milk powder in nonfat. Okay, let me phrase this a different way. That means that we are suddenly being faced with massive increases in demand for protein. The price of protein today is a lot higher than it was a year and a half ago when we were dealing with flat supply. So, why is protein demand so much higher now compared to a year ago? Is it completely and solely demand driven? As amateur economists , like all traders are, that math doesn’t seem right. Martijn Goedhart: Last year, we had significant competition among our export customers from Iran and Belarus, in terms of SMP. The Iran exports were surging. I think it was like 150,000 tons of skim, something like that, that suddenly shows up. Europe is doing about 700. So, that has an impact when you’re talking to [00:13:00] buyers. But that disappeared just as quickly as it appeared. Which yeah, that 150,000 tons, or whatever it was, it will turn back to the next cheapest origin, which was Europe. So, demand didn’t grow, but shifted towards another origin being EU. Henk-Jan Bouwman: Yeah, I think in general, overall competitiveness of EU skim milk powder is a lot better than last year, even in comparison to a bigger skim producing regions. As Martijnn touched upon, being based in the Middle East, I saw a lot of competition coming out of origins, which were a bit more nontraditional. Iran was one of them. What happened is their overall competitiveness finished really, really quickly due to a couple of things. One of them being disease. So, they had foot-and-mouth disease in Iran. Two, their overall ability to import a sufficient amount of feed, and three, their competitiveness due to a currency standpoint, which quickly changed. That, indeed, meant that the material that was supplied by Iran is now being supplied by Europe. Diego Carvallo: It’s a fascinating situation. Some of those [00:14:00] solids that are going into MPCs are definitely reducing the demand for skim, unless it’s coming from a different end-user application. If we’re seeing the MPCs going into sports nutrition, it’s definitely new demand that is finding a new end-user. It’s a combination of a lot of the things that we have discussed in this call: the whole market being short and getting super used to being hand-to-mouth for years, where you could buy product cheaper a month from now, so, why would you buy it? Especially if you have high interest rates, right? So, that’s part of it. The other factor is definitely the whole market was shocked by the impact of the UF pull of the additional MPC production and the amount of solids that we’re not going into a dryer that everybody expected would go right. Also a few additional manufacturing productions, a few key plants in the U.S., this is starting to look like more of a fundamental shift than a short squeeze. [00:15:00] And three weeks ago, everybody was saying, “Yeah, short squeeze, it’s an amazing short squeeze. It’s gonna come down.” Right? And now that same rhetoric has been changing to, “Actually, this is not that much of a short squeeze, but it is more of a there are not that many solids.” There’s a new big plant in Texas. There’s a new big plant in New York. There’s a lot of solids that are being pulled, and nobody was taking that into account. Everybody was expecting after the bird flu in California, we’re simply gonna go back to producing the same amount of nonfat that we were producing two years ago. And if you look at the data, it’s not correct, you know, Josh White: We also gotta give credit to substitution and other things. And what I mean by that is like calf milk replacer industry in the U.S. Historically, we’ll toggle for the cheapest protein between whey and milk powders. For sure, we’re seeing that appetite pick up for nonfat dry milk right now. Whereas two years ago there was a lot of WPC 34 on the market. All of that’s gone [00:16:00] because of the whey movement. I think the utilization is shifting quite a bit. We’ve talked about where it’s more difficult to track where milk solids are being consumed into a lot of protein enhanced beverages and things along those lines. That’s becoming more difficult. We’re saying demand’s not great globally, but if you pick up feed demand because they can’t buy the whey products they bought before, that is more demand for milk powder. And by far the cheapest dairy protein right now is nonfat dry milk. The big question I have is seasonally in the second quarter, are we going to catch up? Are we gonna be able to catch up globally or not? I think the whole market’s really struggling to try to form an opinion on that. Mostly because we can’t really measure and put a finger on just how much new protein-related demand there is in that difficult to measure space that I alluded to earlier. Diego Carvallo: Particularly in the U.S. right? In Europe doesn’t seem like that situation is as strong as it is the U.S. It seems like in the U.S., you have all of these new [00:17:00] cheese plants and UF plants, Class I plants, et cetera. It seems like, at least in the U.S. that inventory building is gonna be more difficult than in other regions. Josh White: And the European dryers are full right now, correct? Martijn Goedhart: Yes. Josh White: And the California dryers are full right now. Midwest dryers are nowhere near full. The answer to that might be a little bit easier than we’re making this discussion. We’ve added a whole lot of cheese capacity. There’s plenty of milk, but a lot of it’s being processed into cheese. Ted Jacoby III: Are there many new dairy plants of any kind in Europe right now? Martijn Goedhart: Not coming online this flush as far as I know. Not surprisingly, but most of the investment obviously is in WPC and WPI, I think Friesland has a big plant coming up, but it’s 2027, am I right, Henk-Jan? Henk-Jan Bouwman: Their latest expansion is 27. Yes. Ted Jacoby III: So we’re not really seeing any milk solids going to new places in Europe. It’s all still within the traditional milk sheds going to the usual suspects. Martijn Goedhart: Yeah. Yeah. Ted Jacoby III: Okay. Let’s switch topics to butter. The [00:18:00] U.S., a year ago, a year and a half ago, we were around $3 butter. It came down into the 2s, $2.50ish, and then the bottom dropped out, and it went all the way down to, I think, $1.28 at one point in the U.S. Now it’s back up in the $1.70s. But Europe dropped even more from an even higher precipice. Where have we been over the last year and where’s the butter market now in Europe, and what’s it doing? Martijn Goedhart: Yeah, well, butter was the main driver of the volatility that we see right now because €7 butter prices, the fed and the milk would already pay an above break-even price to farmers. And then your skim return is just bonus, right? Friesland just released their yearly report and they’ve been paying like, I think 56¢ on average, which is, well it’s a bit debatable, but I would say at least 16¢ above break-even. And then they get even a bit more profit share. That has like sparked that extra milk output, because every liter you produce is making you money as a farmer. You wanna get your components up, you wanna squeeze the maximum out of the milk. That’s how we ended up in this situation and the vicious correction at the other end of it that [00:19:00] we’ve seen. We’ve seen inventories build up and anecdotally we’ll also hear that all the chilled storage is full. That’s still the case. Those stocks haven’t disappeared. And also we’ve imported quite a bit when the spread with the U.S. and before New Zealand was significant enough to do so. That product is arriving now. And that adds to the supply pressure. However, that market has been stable for the last few months. I would say it’s been volatile, but we’re at the same levels than one and a half, two months ago. So that also shows that price correction ultimately also triggers extra demand. It’s an elastic product, especially on the consumer side. However, it’s also capped in terms of upside because those stocks are there. The liquid equivalent, cream, if you would buy cream today, you’d make it into butter. You’d be like at €3.30–€3. 40 cost price where the market is trading at €4.20–€4.30. So, there’s like a thousand euro. Ted Jacoby III: So the multiples in cream are low. Martijn Goedhart: It has been like this during our whole down season, which is very atypical. You could [00:20:00] argue that that multiple is only gonna weaken because milk starts flowing. Ted Jacoby III: Mm-hmm. Martijn Goedhart: The main discussion we have is like, is all that bearishness already priced in? And have we hit the bottom? Have we hit a level at which people are happy to buy? Or is there more to come? Ted Jacoby III: So you guys aren’t really seeing much upward-ness in the butter market in Europe right now? Martijn Goedhart: No. No. If you look from a, let’s say, traditional supply and demand theory, we have record-high stocks and record-high stocks, they basically kill any prolonged upside to a market, I would say, until you work through it. Ted Jacoby III: What about the cheese market in Europe? Is the cheese market high or low right now? And how’s it acting? Martijn Goedhart: It’s surprisingly tight. You would think that especially over the past few years, quite some capacity has been added to the European landscape. You would reckon that this extra milk would flow into the cheese plants, and you can’t find demand for it, so you’d have to move your cheese, and you’d see supply pressure from producers. But, the opposite is true actually. The cheese that’s supplied is very fresh. Within the range of what you can supply, it’s on the fresher side. That [00:21:00] indicates that there are no older stocks or backlog in terms of supply. I think producers have done a good job in capturing those moments when they were competitive on the world market by getting to make cheese disappear out of Europe. And then the last few weeks there were some production disruptions, some factory outages, and that even caused a bit more tightness in the cheese market. But it has stabilized ever since. It has been stable like butter. We’ve seen the bottom for now, and it went up a bit. The only thing is that in cheese there are no inventories. That makes you think that there’s more upside in cheese when milk growth starts to slow compared to butter because there’s no inventory holding it back. Ted Jacoby III: Why isn’t there any inventory? Was Europe doing some really good exporting for a while? Martijn Goedhart: Yeah, that’s the main reason. Big producers did big sales of gouda at some point or mozz when they were competitive, just to keep that supply chain clean. Butter, you can freeze, carry if the market pays for it. Ted Jacoby III: Mm-hmm. Martijn Goedhart: Cheese, you can only do it on paper, but not in reality. You need to get rid of it. Ted Jacoby III: Right. Josh White: How far out do we think the [00:22:00] international cheese buyer is covered right now? Because that was a big topic coming into the first quarter is how much of the cheese business, particularly in contestable markets, did Europe win away from the U.S. Ted correct me if I’m wrong, but our exports have been fine, haven’t they? Ted Jacoby III: Our exports have been fine. That’s actually a good way to put it. We experienced a real nice pop in exports last year. I would say this year, second half of Q4 into Q1, we’ve experienced exports that were relatively similar to last year. Maybe a hair behind. And I think we’ll start seeing those numbers soon, but I wouldn’t be surprised that when we finally see January export numbers, we’re down like 5% versus last year, when last year was a really, really, really good number. I’d almost say down 5% is unexpectedly good relative to how good it was last year. Martijn Goedhart: Josh, coming back to your coverage question, I think both our markets have seen massive carries right over the last few months. So, that’s not a very interesting structure for buyers to cover long. Our market was [00:23:00] trading like spot plus two months maximum. And producers would only make big sales if they have the product already, if they feel it already a little. So, I would suggest that cheese buyers in Europe, as well as around the world, are relatively shortly covered, just the same as with nonfat. Henk-Jan Bouwman: Yeah, I see the same in my export markets where basically all the inquiries we are getting for cheese, are relatively close to home, so maybe one maximum two months out from a shipment perspective. Ted Jacoby III: Mm-hmm. Josh White: So, Ted, are you interpreting this though, that the pressure’s gonna be on more so in the U.S. to win that business going into the second quarter? Based on what you just heard from our European friends? How are you digesting this discussion? Ted Jacoby III: That’s a great question. I would say yes, but price action makes me wonder if the U.S. is trying to price itself out of this market. Martijn Goedhart: Take cheddar for example. EU is about $300 per ton elevated over U.S. So, in certain applications, such as process cheese, I think, by default the U.S., will win that export business. Ted Jacoby III: Even [00:24:00] at current futures prices for April and May of a $1.80? Martijn Goedhart: Little bit of a different story. But that also depends on the outcome of European flush and the effect of that flush on cheddar pricing in Europe. Ted Jacoby III: I would agree with you that about three weeks ago, we were cheaper, but after this rally, I don’t know if that’s still true. Josh White: The point Ted’s driving home right now is the big carry in the Class III cheese markets in the U.S., you’re concern is pricing out the second quarter? Ted Jacoby III: That’s exactly right. I’m concerned we’re in the middle of pricing ourselves out of the market. Josh White: Are we putting ourselves in a spot where we’re the best priced cheese product. We know, out of the U.S., our daily milk volumes are gonna increase. We know that a lot of that milk’s gonna go into cheese. We know that we’re gonna have to compete for cheese business. But even despite the fact that Europe’s relatively balanced, it feels like on cheese, are we putting ourselves in the global market in a position where Europe may win? Martijn Goedhart: It’s gonna be a good fight, Josh. None of the origins can afford to lose a lot of export business over the flush. We need to get those volumes [00:25:00] moving. So, the products where we compete, we will compete. Ted Jacoby III: Mm-hmm. And here’s what’s likely to happen. The U.S. having a little bit more mature and developed futures market means that as Europe goes out there and makes sure they get that business, the U.S. at some point will say, rather than going and exporting this cheese, I’m just gonna put it in a warehouse and hedge it out on the futures because there’s a carry in the futures market right now and I can make 10¢ just sitting on it for a month or two. If we are gonna have to go head to head with Europe, to get that export business, we might not get as much as we did last year in the second quarter, because in the second quarter we really did get a lot of that cheese export business. Martijn Goedhart: I agree. Only, to what extent can you actually carry it, physically, without refreshing, Ted? Because in Europe, that’s a bit of an issue. Ted Jacoby III: In the U.S., there’s a number of strategies, a lot of it being rolling your inventory. So, you take your working inventory and you just start rolling it because I don’t think there’s a huge difference between 30-day-old cheddar and 90-day-old cheddar to a lot of people. There are strategies to [00:26:00] manage through higher inventory levels. But at a certain point, even that working inventory carry, it starts to max out the warehouse, start to get full, and then they just gotta sell it. Martijn Goedhart: Right. Ted Jacoby III: What’s interesting is, I think that a lot of people went into 2026 thinking, “We’ve gotta make sure we’ve got a home for this cheese, because there’s a lot more cheese, and the U.S. market demand is not that great. It’s very flat. And so, if we’re gonna make 4% or 5% more cheese, we’re just gonna have to export it.” Martijn Goedhart: Yeah. Ted Jacoby III: And so, they weren’t even looking at that equation. But I think what’s happened in the last month with this volatility in the market, it’s gonna have the inverse effect of getting everybody to actually sit on that cheese and keep it at home, and you’d think it would be the opposite, but no, I think we’re gonna end up bringing more cheese home and letting you win some of those battles. Josh White: Ted, can we talk a minute about the milk production outlook in both regions and how that’s shifted a bit over the past month or two? I’ll start within the U.S. We generally believe that the margins have not been squeezed to a point where we’re gonna see a massive [00:27:00] supply response, a negative supply response in the U.S. for the foreseeable future. Ted Jacoby III: And the bounce off The bottom, if anything, we may be back into a place where we’re encouraging more production. Josh White: We’ve got some big comparables. There’s maybe some vulnerabilities in the market. We’ve obviously been surprised with disease and other things in the past, so it’s not imminent, of course, but the math says we should expect to continue to have a good amount of milk out of the U.S. going forward. How does that look out of Europe presently? Martijn Goedhart: I would say almost copy paste Josh. Skimmed has bounced back. Butter has stabilized. Cheese has stabilized up to a point where if I look at the valorization of gouda at €3,300/MT you’re well above the 40¢/kg mark, which is basically the pain point for European farmers. And then I’m taking into account sweet whey. Not even WPC, right? So, if you have your WPC return, that’ll add another few cents at least. So yeah, we didn’t go deep enough to encourage any decline in milk production. The big question is how that’s gonna turn out this year: if we see the same curve or more [00:28:00] corrected to normal seasonality. But from a margin perspective, I think, just like Ted said, we bounced off the bottom, and it didn’t hurt enough or long enough for anything structural to change in 2026. Josh White: Hey, Martijn, would you add a little bit of color to what you just mentioned a moment ago? The two flush situation coming from the bluetongue outbreak and issue. Martijn Goedhart: In early 2025 in Europe, there were cases of bluetongue and that spread quite quickly across Western Europe. Spring started, early temperatures went up, and mosquitoes that spread the virus sting cows and then they get infected. It has an effect on calving. A lot of calves are not born in the right way, and also the cows, the output goes down, and it’s harder to get them pregnant. So, some cows, they first have to get over the bluetongue disease before they would start to calve. Some cows would calve late and that means that the milk also starts flowing late. Where you’d typically see a peak, in March, April, and then in eastern Europe, it’s a bit later, but now you’ve seen a similar peak because margins were good, but a longer [00:29:00] plateau at that level as well. Those cows get dried off later as well. So, are they gonna calve later again or is it like maybe some like refreshing of cows in the system, and the new ones will be set up according to the normal season? It’s a big question mark. We don’t know. Even the co-ops are struggling with that. Ted Jacoby III: So, you could have a flush that does not hit the peak it usually does, but it’s just longer. Martijn Goedhart: Yeah. If it’s the same as last year, that’s what’s gonna happen. If we somehow move back to a normal seasonal pattern, then you’ll see a higher peak than last year, but a bigger decline in the second half of the year. Josh White: If we’re talking about demand being okay and large amounts of milk in both Europe and the U.S. likely to continue, is there anywhere in the world that is suffering on their milk production? Do any of us have an idea of what’s going on with milk production in China? Martijn Goedhart: I think margins there are low. It’s been flat until now, the output, but it’s hard to get consistent numbers from China. But margins are still very low. So, that would not incentivize [00:30:00] growth. Ted Jacoby III: Milk production in China popped over a two year period, about five, six years ago. Then held steady for a couple of years, then it pulled back. Now, after that pullback, it’s flatlining again. Josh White: What we’re basically concluding from this is that we’re gonna have a lot of milk still, but, with the exception of some risk maybe on the cheese side and maybe in the butter situation in Europe, the rest of the products don’t seem to have concerning inventory levels as of right now. Ted Jacoby III: I would agree. I think there’s enough supply, but there seems to be surprisingly good demand, especially for protein. All right guys, we’re wrapping up here. Lightning round question. Do you think what’s happening in the nonfat market is a result of increased demand or less supply? Josh, you go first. Josh White: I wanna say both. We’re experiencing more demand across the entire curve that is both pulling more nonfat supply and is also pulling away skim solids from the dryer. Ted Jacoby III: Martijn? Martijn Goedhart: I agree with Josh. Some of it is fundamental SMD but a big part of it is demand waiting too long and needing to deliver. Ted Jacoby III: Henk? Henk-Jan Bouwman: yeah, I’m with you [00:31:00] guys. Ted Jacoby III: I do not want a chicken out like you and say both, so I’m trying to decide which one. I think it’s very subtle, but this is actually demand driven more than supply driven. Martijn Goedhart: Yeah. Ted Jacoby III: Yeah. All right guys. Thanks for joining us again. We really appreciate all the time that you guys spent tuning in and listening to us. Keep milking those cows, and we’ll keep showing up and telling you what we’re seeing out there. Ted Jacoby III: We’ll be back in two weeks for a market update with the Jacoby team. Looking forward to seeing you then. All right guys. Hey, Martijn. Henk, thank you so much for joining us today. Really appreciate the conversation. Martijn Goedhart: Thanks guys. Huge pleasure. Henk-Jan Bouwman: Thank you very much. Martijn Goedhart: Cheers.

Aaschbomm mam Raphael Stacchiotti

Erklär&Laach

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 2, 2026 70:58

An dëser Folg sprange mir mat iech vum Beckerand per Bauchklatscher an dat kaalt Waasser: Fir d'zweete Kéier an der Geschicht vun eisem Podcast hu mir e Gaascht an eis Gruppendusch invitéiert. An et ass een, dee mir säit eisen Ufäng (mir hunn eist Podcast-Séipäerdchen 2019 gemaach) schonn ëmmer wollten dobäi hunn:Riets geet natierlech vum Pool-Philosoph, Welleflüsterer an net ze vergiessen 4-fachen Olympionik fir Lëtzebuerg, de Raphael Stachiotti!Zesumme mat eisem Gaascht huele mir iech mat op eng Rees mat (plazeweis) Déifgang an enger gudder Schlupp Chlor.

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Ep 113. The First Annual Landscape Rodeo: A Full Rodeo Recap

Green Side Up

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 26, 2026 66:05

In this episode of the Green Side Up Podcast, Jason and Jordan sit down with guest Erin Alvarez to recap the first annual Landscape Rodeo at Ancient City Farmstead. They walk through what it took to pull off a brand‑new event—from last‑minute insurance and equipment logistics to course design, sponsors, and volunteers—plus highlights like the truck and trailer / Isuzu box truck course, the articulated wheel loader water challenge, a VIP night with an epic low country boil, and a crawfish race. You'll hear how FFA students, owner‑operators, larger landscape companies, UF, and vendors all came together to compete for custom belt buckles and showcase real‑world skills in the green industry, and why one FFA student's comment on local TV proved the event is a real pipeline for the next generation. The episode closes with Jordan sharing the story behind his wife Sydney's new children's book, "Looking for Bunny Flies," a nature‑themed seek‑and‑find inspired by her late father's bedtime stories. Landscape Rodeo: Action News Connect with Jason and Jordan:

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Can Jon Sumrall Win Year 1? | Florida Gators Roster Reality Check & SEC Expectations

Gators Breakdown

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 23, 2026 66:24

In this Gators Breakdown Plus Member Chat, we discuss John Sumrall's instant success track record and whether Florida's roster needs rebuilding or just recalibration. We compare UF's coaching transition to Auburn and Arkansas, debate realistic year-one expectations in the SEC, and analyze Sumrall's roster-building philosophy versus the transfer portal approach. Join the conversation about what success looks like for the Gators in 2026. #FloridaGators #GatorsFootball #SECFootball #CollegeFootball #GatorsBreakdown #GoGators #CFB #FloridaGatorsFootball JOIN Gators Breakdown Plus: https://gatorsbreakdownplus.com Gators Breakdown Merch: https://gatorsbreakdown.printful.me Get Florida Gators merch at Fanatics: https://fanatics.93n6tx.net/DVYxja Questions or comments? Send them to gatorsbreakdown@gmail.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

SHOWDOWN: Florida Quarterback Duel DICTATES Final 2026 Record

College Football Smothered and Covered

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 23, 2026 15:26

Florida Gators face a high-stakes quarterback battle as Aaron Philo and Tramell Jones, Jr. compete for the starting role—can either newcomer handle the SEC's brutal schedule and elevate the Gators' offense under coordinator Buster Faulkner? Philo's deep familiarity with Faulkner's system clashes with Jones's established rapport in Gainesville, creating one of college football's most intriguing competitions. Who will push the ball downfield more effectively without costly turnovers? Brian Smith breaks down each quarterback's strengths, the importance of chemistry, and UF's challenging slate that includes Texas, Auburn, and Georgia. The episode explores the critical impact of decision-making, the need for mobility in high-pressure games, and how the Gators' young roster might rise to the occasion. With head coach John Sumrall under immediate scrutiny and Florida's offensive identity on the line, every snap counts—will Philo or Jones seize the moment and guide the Gators to more wins than expected? Everydayer Club If you never miss an episode, it's time to make it official. Join the Locked On Everydayer Club and get ad-free audio, access to our members-only Discord, and more — all built for our most loyal fans. Click here to learn more and join the community: https://theportal.supercast.com/ Help us by supporting our sponsors! 5-Hour ENERGY Have your cake & drink it too. Birthday cake-flavor is back, no fork needed. Vanilla-y cakey flavor, caffeinated kick, and no sugar. It's party time. Order Now at https://5-hourENERGY.com or Amazon. Mazda Like our players, we're driven by the details. Because highlights make the reel. What it takes to get there makes it count. There's more to a Mazda. Because there's more to you. Turbo Tax For a limited time, you can have your taxes done by a local TurboTax expert for just $150 — all in, if a TurboTax expert didn't file for you last year. Just file by February 28. Take taxes off your plate and get back to your life. Visit https://TurboTax.com/local to book your appointment today. Indeed Listeners of this show get a $75 Sponsored Job Credit to help give your job the premium placement it deserves at http://Indeed.com/podcast FanDuel Use your Profit Boost on an NBA future and get entered for your chance to win a trip to the NBA Finals. Play your game with FanDuel, the official sports betting partner of the NBA. Visit https://FANDUEL.COM to get started. FANDUEL DISCLAIMER: 21+ in select states. First online real money wager only. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable free bets that expire in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, MD, MI, NJ, PA, IL, VA, WV), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (WY, KS) or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Florida AG vs. Planned Parenthood Republican?

WSKY The Bob Rose Show

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 19, 2026 32:05

Hour 3 of the Bob Rose Show, on a fight among 2 state Republicans. A State House Representative slammed Attorney General James Uthmeier over his $100K part-time teaching position at UF's law school. Uthmeier slapped back on Rep. Alex Andrade's law firm representing Planned Parenthood. More on this ongoing feud, plus Thursday's biggest news stories for 2-19-26.

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420: "Speedy Commissary" ft. Zach Abolverdi

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 17, 2026 86:12

YouTube DescriptionFlorida is staying busy — and we're breaking it all down on Stadium and Gale, the Flagship Florida Gators Podcast, with one of the most plugged-in voices covering the program: Zach Abolverdi (On3 / Gators Online + UF adjunct professor).Tonight's Show:

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Why Dairy Futures Seem Irrational

The Tailgate with Jeff Cardozo & Zach Abolverdi Show Replay

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 17, 2026 24:53

Dairy futures have been anything but calm. In just three weeks, prices across Class III, Class IV, cheese, butter and nonfat have surged, then whipped back and forth enough to exhaust even full-time market watchers. In this episode of The Milk Check, Ted Jacoby and the T.C. Jacoby & Co. team break down why dairy futures can look irrational, even when the underlying fundamentals haven't changed much. What's driving the chaos (beyond fundamentals) Short squeezes 101: how a crowded short can turn into a domino effect Flow first, narrative second: why the buying often hits before the story shows up Realized vs. implied volatility: what the market did vs. what the options market is pricing in Why nonfat may be the center of the storm: the team debates whether this is a true regime change Why butter and cheese moved too: how spread relationships and algorithmic trading can drag correlated dairy contracts higher Spot market feedback loops: how NDPSR-linked spot markets can amplify futures moves (tail-wagging-the-dog dynamics). What usually happens next: why squeezes rarely park at the top Plus: stick around for a director's cut featuring the unedited, behind-the-scenes debate the team usually leaves on the cutting room floor. Got questions? We'd love to hear them. Submit below, and we might answer it on the show. Ask The Milk Check Ted Jacoby III: [00:00:00] It has been wild and crazy every day for the last three weeks. Welcome to the Milk Check from T.C. Jacoby and Company, your complete guide to dairy markets, from the milking parlor to the supermarket shelf. I’m Ted Jacoby. Let’s dive in. We’ve got a special treat for you this week. We’re gonna drop the director’s cut of this podcast where we include some of the conversations that usually get edited out: how we debate internally about some of these market dynamics. So, stay tuned after the end of the podcast and listen to the off-takes. My name is Ted Jacoby, CEO of T.C. Jacoby & Co., and joining me today is Jacob Menge, our Vice President of Risk Management and Trading Strategy, Josh White, our Vice President of Dairy Ingredients, and Joe Maixner, our Director of Sales. We are in week three of a very high level of volatility in the dairy markets. We’ve had a very interesting last few weeks. It’s February 9th, and since January 15th, our Class III March futures are up 18%. Our [00:01:00] March cheese futures are up over 15%. Butter futures are up over 26%. nonfat futures up 37% and Class IV milk futures up 36%. These markets have not gone up in a straight line. There’s been a massive amount of volatility, a lot of green, a lot of red, and then a lot of green, and then a lot of red again, enough to make all of us who talk these markets on a daily and an hourly basis to be flat out exhausted. The question becomes, what’s causing this level of volatility? We are gonna talk a little bit about market psychology. Why can markets do what they’ve done in the last three weeks, and why our actual fundamental market analysis hasn’t really changed that much. To quote the famous British economist, John Maynard Keynes, “Markets can remain irrational far longer than you and I can remain solvent.” And I’ll tell you that the last three weeks reminded me repeatedly of that phrase. It serves as a warning against over leveraging or trying to fight the tape, trading against trends, suggesting that just because you are right about a trend’s [00:02:00] long-term direction, it’s useless if you run out of capital. Ted Jacoby III: And I have a feeling that based on what we’ve been experiencing lately, there’s probably a few people out there that exactly that happened to. It has been wild and crazy every day for the last three weeks. Jake, why do markets do this? Jacob Menge: You threw out your little soundbite anecdotes. We will pull out some more of ’em during those podcasts, I’m sure, because those are all written by people that have been burned by short squeezes like we’re seeing, right? One that sticks out to me is: volatility is the tax you pay for liquidity and leverage, and that’s what futures markets are, right? They are a way for people to express their opinion on price action. Obviously, even a hedger is in some way expressing an opinion using futures or options. They’re highly liquid. You don’t even have to pay full price for ’em because you only gotta put up that margin upfront. And again, volatility is usually the tax that you pay for that. When you have this easy leverage, and everybody can get on one side of the boat you can’t have your cake and eat it, too. You can’t [00:03:00] have tight spreads, you can’t have the leverage and smooth prices all at the same time. And that can result in things like short squeezes. We were primed for one. You’re right, we had low volatility. We had a lot of people that were short the market because that was the prevailing narrative. As a result, all it took was one little spark to set some pretty dry kindling ablaze. That’s exactly what we saw, especially on the nonfat side. I’ll pull out my second anecdote. I’ve always heard: squeezes are flow events first, narrative events second. That’s exactly what was going on with nonfat. Meaning we get this massive bullish order flow coming in. The market goes up 30%+ in a few week period, and it’s only after that happens that all of a sudden we start having these conversations of, well, what was everybody missing in nonfat? I think the market probably was missing something on the nonfat side. But at the end of the day when you have volatility near lows, volume that was [00:04:00] fairly average, it makes sense that really the only way to go is gonna be up. If there’s any kind of news. And the news this time turns out there’s a whole lot less nonfat out there than people probably expected. And away we go. And it turns into this snowball where there’s the first people to see that and start wanting to buy, and the second they start wanting to buy, turns out there’s not a whole lot of sellers there, because everybody that wanted to sell already had sold. You get that first nice air pocket jump higher. That really is that first domino where if you’re a market maker, say, and you need to hedge your book, you’re trying to run a delta neutral trading book as a market maker, you might say, “Okay, well hey, I need to go get some long delta myself.” And you might go try to buy some options, to buy calls, to offset that. And then all of a sudden the market maker that is selling the calls want more for the calls than they wanted just a day ago. Ted Jacoby III: A day ago? Try an hour ago. Jacob Menge: Yeah, an hour ago. Truly. And so [00:05:00] that would be what we call implied volatility. Right. And I think that’s one important distinction here is we have volatility, what we call realized volatility, which is what the market actually did, like how crazy the market is, and then implied volatility, basically what the market is charging for options usually and implying what the market thinks the volatility will be in the future. And that’s where it gets really fun because even though we didn’t have a lot of realized volatility, if the market thinks it’s gonna become volatile and starts charging more for these options, it can almost be a self-fulfilling prophecy, right? Because now you have to pay more to buy that insurance policy, and you can see how that snowball really can grow fairly fast. We have one other really fun part in dairy markets that I can’t help but mention, and that is that we also have spot markets. Those spot markets indirectly are linked to the futures prices because of our National Dairy Products Sales Report (NDPSR) system. And so we [00:06:00] can really wind up with the tail wagging the dog in our futures markets and in our spot markets where, say the spot markets were driving the ship on the way down. People had a lot of products, they’re selling them. Well, all of a sudden, if we start getting a little bit of a squeeze in our futures markets, now if you have product, you don’t wanna sell it on the exchange, you wanna just hold onto it and capture the carry in the futures curve. And so you’re not gonna sell. And so any bidder on the spot auction has to bid it higher. And guess what? Now the futures see the spot auction being bid up and they say, “Well, well, we are right to be panicking. We need to go higher.” And that’s just pouring gasoline on the fire. We’ve already got a raging inferno at this point, but that adds the final pour of gasoline. Ted Jacoby III: You remind me of one of my learning moments 20 some odd, almost 30 years ago, when I was watching these markets, as the futures markets were just becoming relevant to the dairy industry. And it was the realization that futures markets and spot markets are [00:07:00] two different markets with a different set of drivers of supply and demand. On the spot market, supply is, let’s talk about butter, is the supply of 80% bulk butter. Demand is the demand for that 80% bulk butter. The futures butter markets, it may settle to that NDPSR price of the bulk butter market, but the reality is the supply is the number of people who are willing to sell those futures, and the demand is the number of people that are willing to buy those futures. And so you can have people coming into the market that really don’t care at all about how much block butter are out there because they’re actually trying to hedge cream cheese or a chocolate shake or something completely different that has butter in it, but they need to own those futures, and that futures market can move quite a bit and has nothing to do with the actual supply and demand of the market it’s based on. Jacob Menge: Anecdote number three. I always have heard squeezes feel irrational because risk systems are mechanical. And I think that is true here, right? You have stops in place. A lot of [00:08:00] companies will have risk management policies that say, “Hey if VAR gets to a certain point, you have to get out of your position.” Or on the opposite side, you have to hedge your product if something has happened, or you have to hedge your buy price if the market hits a certain threshold. And so, that can really send the market in the short run to some areas that feel irrational, but again, it’s because the systems behind it are mechanical sometimes and not even human. Obviously, the human factor makes things even spicier. But once your mechanical stops have all been hit, and the party is coming to an end very, very rarely — I’m struggling to think of one short squeeze I’ve ever seen — that actually goes to the top and then just starts trading sideways. It is almost always an overshoot and a retracement back down to some level. And that is really where our different volatilities really matter because on that collapse back to reality, and reality can [00:09:00] be very different than where we started, just to be clear, if nonfat started at a $1.20, and we go way up to a $1.60, and then settle at a $1.40, we’re still 20¢ higher than where we started. So, don’t get me wrong, right? Short squeezes, there’s usually some fundamentals behind it, but it’s that blow off top that we might say feels super, super irrational. And again, we’ll have kind of this realized volatility going higher as we are going up and going down. But the more interesting thing in my opinion is that as we’re doing that retracement off of this super high blow off top, implied volatility tends to drift lower. That’s actually an important concept to really understand because as implied volatility is moving lower with the market moving lower, it gives the market breathing room, and that is the point where we can really find equilibrium and come out at maybe the price we should have been three months ago, but [00:10:00] shouldn’t have been last week during that crazy short covering rally. Josh White: Hey guys, what should we make of the fact that our least volatile product over the past, I mean, what decade, 20 years, is the most volatile right now? Or is it is nonfat technically the most volatile product? That’s it. Ted Jacoby III: It is. Josh White: Yep, Ted Jacoby III: it is. Josh White: What should we make of that? I mean, that to me should be the definition of a market cycle change, right? Do we believe that? Joe Maixner: If the market with historically the lowest amount of volatility now has the highest amount of volatility, does that mean that there is a structural change in the way that the market is operating? Jacob Menge: Yes. This might mean regime change for the nonfat market. But we’ve also had these other short squeezes in butter, in Class III. We’re still in a volatile period, but those could just be because we have algorithms keeping Class III and Class IV in check. We’re pondering the question: is there this regime change in nonfat from a low volatility commodity to a high volatility commodity? It’s probably too early to tell. My [00:11:00] guess would be yes, we’re not gonna go back to this boring state nonfat had been in, because it’s just a very evolving market with what we’re seeing on the protein beverage side, you name it: the market’s doing a really good job of taking a boring commodity and finding these new, exciting uses for it. And, and so it kind of passes the sniff test. What probably doesn’t pass the sniff test is what we’re seeing on the other commodities right now: butter and just the Class III products, frankly, I should say cheese in general. What we’re seeing right now with those is they’re following along with the nonfat rally. This really seems to me like nonfat is in the driver’s seat. And I think there’s pretty logical explanations for why we’re seeing cheese and butter do what they’re doing along with nonfat. We’ve got algorithms that trade spreads within our market, right? We do have a crushable commodity. We can take Class III, Class IV, and break it down into its components. As a result, [00:12:00] there’s some opinions on, say the Class III, Class IV spread. And so if we get this massive rally in nonfat, well then any algorithm that’s trading the Class IV crush is probably dragging butter along with it. And now we’ve got Class IV rallying, and there’s probably other algorithms and other people with opinions in the market on what that Class III, Class IV spread should be. And so, even if the absolute price is seeming outta whack there’s enough people with opinions on maybe spreads or calendar spreads or what have you, that are causing the reactions that we’re seeing. Ted Jacoby III: This is the scenario that I can imagine. Everybody has been short, pretty much all of the dairy markets for about six months now. Maybe it took other people longer than it took us to realize that there was gonna be too much milk out there all over the world. But by the time we got to the second week in January, I think everybody who wanted to be short this market already was. Then people started to realize that maybe they weren’t entirely right about the nonfat market. Kind of makes sense if you think [00:13:00] about what we’ve been talking about over the last six months, which is: too much butterfat, too much cheese, but protein’s still really in good demand. Guess what? Nonfat is 34% protein. So, all of a sudden people realized, shoot, maybe the nonfat market has a different dynamic to it and it might need to go up so they start buying it. Well, that causes the Class IV market to go up. And if you have insurance companies that are part of the DLP program that are short this Class IV market, then all of a sudden it’s going the other direction on ’em and they need to go figure out how to get some length in the Class IV market. But shoot, they can’t find any liquidity in the Class IV market. So, instead they’re gonna buy nonfat and they’re gonna buy butter. Now think about it. Now they’re gonna go buy butter. Everybody that wanted to be sure at the butter market is already sure at the butter market. There aren’t any sellers left in the butter market because everybody already did their selling. And so now they’re buying butter, driving the butter market up. And then the last few people who sold the butter market, those who were late to the party, all of a sudden are noticing their margin accounts go negative. Now they’ve gotta throw in the [00:14:00] cash. Maybe they don’t have the financial resources to fund a margin call. And so now they have to buy their futures back, and all of a sudden it becomes this domino, forcing more and more people, for one reason or another, to have to buy back their positions. The next thing you know, you’re up 26%, even though the reality is supply and demand to butterfat, not just in the U.S., but frankly, probably in the world, hasn’t changed one bit in the last three weeks, and that’s why we’re up 26% right now. Jacob Menge: Crowded trades don’t break because they’re wrong. They break because they’re crowded. Ted Jacoby III: I like that. I haven’t heard that one before. I like that . So what happens next? You talk about markets being in strong hands and weak hands. Moments like this force everybody who is a weak hand out of the market, and so the only people left with a position in the market are the ones in strong hands. Does the market go back, and I’m thinking butter, not necessarily nonfat. I think we were all in agreement that the nonfat market has probably had somewhat of a dynamic change. I don’t know if it’s a 36% change, but it’s had [00:15:00] somewhat of a change. But now the butter market, which really probably hasn’t had the same amount of change, the supply and demand for butterfat probably is the same thing it was four weeks ago. And I don’t think you’re gonna find many people out there who are arguing that butter needs to be at $2, like the current March futures say it should be. So what happens in the butter market next? Does it go back to where it was? How do these short squeezes usually play out? Jacob Menge: As an economist, I will say the markets are a perfect system and they will find the exact right price where buyers and sellers meet and everybody is happy. The reality is, short squeezes are really good for hitting the reset button and finding a new equilibrium. And sometimes that is right back to where they started. Sometimes that is closer to the top of the squeeze than the bottom. I think we’re still in that reset period. I don’t think we know where equilibrium is on all of our commodities. It’s gonna still take some time, right? [00:16:00] Because let’s just run with the theory of cheese is gonna go back to where we kinda started all this thing in the $1.40s on the futures. It’s gonna take time for sellers to step back in the market and chew through all this new buy-side liquidity. This buy-side liquidity can come from risk management plans that are in place. And so it just takes time to find that equilibrium. But that is in theory what the market’s going through. Ted Jacoby III: I wanted to have this kind of a conversation because the reality is this was one of those where there’s a lot of people out there right now, they’ve got about half the hair they used to have. Jacob Menge: I don’t think we made them feel any better. Ted Jacoby III: Unfortunately. I know. Stay tuned for the deleted scenes from this podcast. And now the director’s cut. Josh White: Protein’s demand has absolutely changed. Ted Jacoby III: All along we were saying protein demand was strong. To me, this is more about butter than it is about nonfat. Why in the world [00:17:00] is butter up 30¢? Jacob Menge: I think we need to gut check every single model we have in any spreadsheet anywhere. Josh White: A hundred percent. Jacob Menge: Because it’s a new era. Ted Jacoby III: I would argue though that, I mean, we can talk all day long about whether or not our market analysis is right or wrong, but the reality is this was everybody’s market analysis. Josh White: That’s the point we’re making. Ted Jacoby III: I think the irony is, I think the short squeeze had absolutely nothing to do with underestimating how much protein was going to fluid. I think it started for a completely different reason, but once it started moving, we all started looking harder at our analysis. And said, “Man, maybe we’re missing something,” and then actually found it. Josh White: That’s the part that I’m struggling with is I’m actually thinking butter’s easier to rationalize in my mind than nonfat. I think nonfat is a bigger story right now than anything else because butter, what’s the elasticity of demand? And there’s a shift in it because we’re exporting again. Yeah, it’s making it hard for us to measure, but we definitely have been cheaper. And so for it [00:18:00] to be buoying around for price discovery, to try to find that new equilibrium with seasonality, with different products and all that, to me that’s actually easier for me to understand. Like it drops from a price that was significantly higher. Upper twos even pushing three and exceeding three for a short amount of time all the way down to a $1.50. If we don’t think there would be some demand response to that globally and that we would have some retracement or volatility for the opposite reasons that nonfat is probably going too high and gonna have to retrace lower. That to me, like I don’t think we should be super shocked that butter’s doing that. You know what I mean? Like trying to find its equilibrium. To me that’s easier to explain. Ted Jacoby III: Completely agree with everything you’re saying, but I would say this. What we’re arguing about butter is, it’s a vagueness of knowing the balance where the equilibrium price is. We’re just bouncing around trying to find it. I think that’s different from what happened in nonfat. I think with nonfat, the market, the physical market itself, literally [00:19:00] couldn’t get what it wanted. Joe, did we ever have a moment when we couldn’t get the butter we wanted? Before the run started, could you get all the butter you wanted? Joe Maixner: Not off exchange. Josh White: Not 80% fresh salted product. It was being hoarded, right? Joe Maixner: There’s multiple facets to this, right? Like yes, you cannot get any 80% fresh salt right now. But we’re also struggling on getting any old crop, 80% salt off of exchange right now because the old crop situation is much different than it was back when old crop was an actual market mover. Five years ago, all the old crop butter was only at a 12 month shelf life on domestic salted. Everyone’s gone to a 18 or 24 month shelf life. So the product’s still good off exchange for a lot longer than it used to be. So nobody’s out there needing to technically dump it at this point in time if you don’t have a sale for it, because you could still use it off exchange. For a brief period, yes, the salted market got tight, but it’s also because we had the carry in [00:20:00] the market that we had, right? We had the 20¢, 30¢ carry in the market. So, whether you had new crop, old crop, whatever, why would you sell it at a $1.35 in January when you could sell it for a $1.75 a $1.80 in March at that time? Now, we’ve come down, you know, now we’re at a $1.83 in March right now, but at one point we were at $2.00 on March futures with this rally. It’s simple economics. You can carry the products for 3¢ a month and you can make 14¢ to 25¢ depending on the month you wanna sell it in or you let it go for way too cheap. Ted Jacoby III: I hear you. But to me, that’s wholesaler math, that’s trader math. At the end user level, at the people who consume butter, has there been a fundamental shift in how much butter is being consumed? Joe Maixner: No, I don’t think so. Ted Jacoby III: Whereas I think when we’re talking about nonfat and especially the protein in nonfat, I think there has been. It actually manifested itself as a lower amount of supply in nonfat. But I think what’s happened is we were [00:21:00] taking that protein away from the nonfat dryer and using it somewhere else. Whereas with butter, I don’t think that’s happened. Joe Maixner: No, but at the same time, I think that there’s similarities between butter and nonfat, whereas people came into this year structurally short. They didn’t contract because they anticipated the supply to be there. Ted Jacoby III: And then everybody showed up, that’s essentially being short the market. Joe Maixner: Yeah. Ted Jacoby III: When I talk about how everybody who wanted to be short this market was already short this market, so there were no more sellers left to sell. So when somebody wanted to start buying, there was nobody to sell. Joe Maixner: I mean, ultimately you’re just explaining the classic short squeeze. Ted Jacoby III: Right? To me though, that is what we’re dealing with. That’s what we’ve been dealing with right now. That’s what the short squeeze is. It wasn’t just everybody was short this market. Then they were ready to start buying ’cause the market was low enough. Then they found there wasn’t anybody left to buy from ’cause everybody had already sold everything they wanted to sell. And that caused the short squeeze, without any real rationality of there being a fundamental change in demand or supply. It was all at the wholesale [00:22:00] level. Whereas with nonfat, I would argue that the market came to a realization that we were pulling protein away from the dryer to sell it into liquid UF, causing a fundamental shift in the actual supply and demand balance, whereas I don’t necessarily think that happened with butter. With butter, I think it was just the noise in the middle of people making choices about being long or short of market. I don’t, am I making any sense? Joe Maixner: I think you’re getting to the point where you’re talking in circles, if I’m being honest. Ted Jacoby III: To me there’s a difference between talking tactics and talking trading strategy and talking about a fundamental supply demand analysis. Josh White: I think it’ll make a compelling podcast for those that are wondering what’s going on. I genuinely mean that. Ted Jacoby III: We might actually want to have the 15 minute version of talking about what happened in market psychology. Then have an appendix to it capturing the discussion as to what is the real difference between what’s going on in butter and nonfat. Josh White: Or how do [00:23:00] these guys communicate when the makeup’s off? Joe Maixner: I think we leave, I think we leave it all in.

Florida Head Coach Jon Sumrall on The Chuck Oliver Show

Southern Sports Today

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 16, 2026 14:25

Head coach of the Florida Gators Jon Sumrall joins Heath Cline on The Chuck Oliver Show to look at how he's building the program for the upcoming season.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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The Tailgate 2/16/26

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 16, 2026 120:38

On todays show, Jeff Cardozo and Zach Abolverdi recap Gators men's basketball against Kentucky on Saturday and talk about UF baseball's performance last weekend.

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Swamp247 Podcast: Early impressions of Florida football's coaching staff

Wille - Podcast für Familienrecht

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 13, 2026 44:49

The Swamp247 Podcast returns to discuss early impressions of Florida's coaching staff after interviewing the majority of UF's newly hired assistants. The hosts, Graham Hall and Zach Goodall, discuss the hiring of coordinators Buster Faulkner and Brad White, the defensive line depth, and the returns of former Gators standouts Phil Trautwein and Bam Hardmon. In the final segment, the hosts discuss how refreshing it was to hear UF's desire to clean up the recent history of special teams mistakes. Follow Swamp247.com for the best coverage of the Florida Gators! To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Gerechter Kindesunterhalt bei geteilter Betreuung?

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 13, 2026

Wenn 45 Prozent Betreuung nicht reichen: Ein Vater zahlt trotzdem vollen Unterhalt Überraschenderweise zahlt ein Vater von Zwillingen den vollen Barunterhalt, obwohl er die Kinder zu über 45 Prozent betreut. Dies möchte der Vater nicht hinnehmen und bemüht das Gericht mit dem Fall. Wir befassen uns mit dem Fall des OLG Braunschweig und dessen Auswirkungen. Kann ein Unterhaltspflichtiger Elternteil den Unterhalt reduzieren, wenn das Elternteil die Kinder zu 45 % betreut? Ausgang ist die Entscheidung des OLG Braunschweig Beschluss vom 27. November 2025 – 1 UF 46/25. Es geht um den Kindesunterhalt bei umfangreicher Mitbetreuung des barunterhaltspflichtigen Elternteils. Folge direkt herunterladen Abo für den Newsletter: https://anwalt-wille.ac-page.com/newsletter Fachbuch: 77 Fragen und Antworten eines Fachanwalts zum Sorgerecht: Rechte und Pflichten der getrenntlebenden Eltern https://amzn.to/4osAym9 Rechtsanwalt Klaus Wille Fachanwalt für Familienrecht Ostheimer Str. 28 51103 Köln www.anwalt-wille.de Tiktok: https://www.tiktok.com/@anwaltwille Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/klaus.wille Newsletter: https://anwalt-wille.ac-page.com/newsletter Impressum: https://www.anwalt-wille.de/impressum/ #anwalt #familienrecht #fachanwalt #koeln #scheidung #trennung #kinder #sorgerecht #umgangsrecht #umgang #vermögen #zugewinn #zugewinnausgleich #amtsgericht #familiengericht #anwaltwille #woeinwilleististaucheinweg #fachanwaltfürfamilienrecht #+#ehevertrag

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The Nonfat Short Squeeze

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 6, 2026 24:46

Nonfat prices have moved sharply higher in recent weeks. But the rally isn’t being driven by a sudden surge in demand. It’s being driven by a breakdown in where milk is actually flowing. In this episode of The Milk Check, Ted Jacoby III and the Jacoby team unpack insights coming out of the IDFA Dairy Forum in Palm Springs and explain why nonfat prices have surged nearly 25 cents in just weeks, even as milk production remains strong. The issue isn’t price resistance. It’s availability. Milk that the market expected to move into dryers is instead being diverted into cheese plants, ultra-filtration, whey proteins and other higher-value protein streams. As a result, powder supply is far tighter than headline production numbers suggest. Layer in heavy short positioning, processing disruptions, and new offtake agreements, and the market begins to resemble a classic short squeeze. In this conversation, the team breaks down what’s actually driving NDFM and why higher prices haven’t unlocked new supply. We cover: How protein economics are pulling milk away from powder Why rising milk production hasn’t translated into greater availability Key structural differences between the U.S., Europe, and New Zealand Where the market may find its next equilibrium, and what could disrupt it If you’re relying on historical assumptions about nonfat availability, this episode explains why those assumptions may no longer hold. Listen to The Milk Check to understand what the evolving nonfat landscape means for pricing risk, exports and coverage decisions ahead. Available below or on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, Amazon Podcasts or YouTube. Got questions? We'd love to hear them. Submit below, and we might answer it on the show. Ask The Milk Check Jacob Menge: [00:00:00] There are just so many of these long-held assumptions, things that people who have been in the industry a while probably have, like, “Well, my gut tells me this.” Question your gut. Ted Jacoby III: Welcome to the Milk Check from T.C. Jacoby and Company, your complete guide to dairy markets, from the milking parlor to the supermarket shelf. I’m Ted Jacoby. Let’s dive in. It is January 30th. We’ve all just got back from the Dairy Forum in Palm Springs, where it was a hell of a lot warmer than it is here in frigid St. Louis, Missouri. Joining me today is Diego Carvallo, the head of our international sales team and our head non -fat dry milk trader. We have Josh White, head of our dairy ingredients group, Jacob Menge, our VP of risk Management and Trading Strategy, and Mike Brown, VP of Jacoby Dairy Market Intelligence. Guys, welcome. What did we learn in Palm Springs? I think the biggest thing that came out of our visit and running into everybody at the Dairy Forum is that nonfat dry milk and skim milk powder really is tight. We have a short squeeze going on in the nonfat dry milk [00:01:00] market. The market is up. I think it’s 25 cents in the last three weeks. I’ll let Diego explain to everybody what’s really going on in the nonfat market right now. Diego? Diego Carvallo: Ted, that’s a very loaded question right now. Everybody’s scratching their heads. As of right now, today, Friday the 30th, the market just closed. The whole strip is limit up — 4 cents up. I think I hadn’t seen this in quite some time. IDFA was very interesting for a lot of people to discover why the spot market has been tight for this long and have good discussions on what the outlook looks like. Let’s start with the fundamentals. I think a few things are helping this market and supporting it and pushing it higher. The first one is what a lot of people are discussing, which is the amount of UF being produced in regions like the Midwest. We all know that many of the plants have installed new capacity to have UF sales, and those solids are in great demand [00:02:00] for cheese fortification right now. So that’s one of the reasons why the Midwest especially feeling this tight. Another reason is that the majority of the people who speculate with this market, and it goes from traders to manufacturers and even distributors, most of them have been short, expecting this market to move lower during the spring flush. I remember a few months ago, the speculation was that we were gonna break the $1. And, it seems like everybody got short, physical and in the screen, and that market, obviously, whenever we saw a bounce, everybody ran to cover their shorts, right? Another reason is that we saw a few interruptions in processing capacity, especially in California during the months of November. I think that also contributed to the tightness in the market without even getting into the conversation of new [00:03:00] offtake agreements that have taken up this year. So I think those are the main contributors to this market moving higher, and I think it’s something that is mainly affecting the U.S. The rest of the market is following through. I think this scenario is very different when you talk about European and New Zealand production. It’s even different when you see the U.S., the West Coast versus the rest of the country. Ted Jacoby III: Tell me about Europe. I know Europe started acting tight a little bit before the U.S., but what’s going on in Europe? Nonfat, dry milk and skim milk powder is probably our most global market when it comes to dairy. Diego Carvallo: So, Europe had a couple of large tenders that took place, I think that was beginning of January. So, the infamous O’Neill tender and a few similar tenders that usually move a lot of product. Those tenders took place, and I think it helped clear some of the excess product that was available in the market. But I think in Europe we had a similar situation where most of the traders, most [00:04:00] of the end users and manufacturers, everybody was expecting prices to move lower, right? Whenever we saw these tenders coming and the market slightly turned less bearish, I think everybody ran also to cover their shorts. But the situation in Europe has not been as bullish as it has in the U.S. The spread between the U.S. and Europe when it comes to skim has in fact widened as of right now. Europe is also feeling the support. Definitely. It’s in part driven by the U.S. rally. Ted Jacoby III: Well, that makes sense. I can tell you I had conversations with a few different manufacturers while I was at IDFA. And the best way I can sum up what the feeling was there’s a couple of dryers on the East Coast. Those dryers at this point are not expecting to ever run full this year, not even at the height of the flush, because there’s three new plants at various stages of development. There’s a new cheese plant in New York. There is a Fair Life milk plant in New York, and then ultimately a yogurt plant in New [00:05:00] York. All three of those plants are gonna need the milk. It’s gonna come at the expense of the powder plants in that area. You look at the Southwest in Texas again, you’ve got two new cheese plants that are still in the midst of ramping up. They are getting first dibs on the milk at the expense of the nonfat dry milk plants down there. So those plants are gonna get the milk that they expected. And there’s another nonfat plant that pretty much has turned a 100%, to Diego’s point that’s turned a 100% of their milk supply into skim UF that they’re supplying to various sources. And that plant is running the ultra filtration unit full. So, that plant isn’t drying anything. You got a couple of dryers in the Michigan area. They’re not running as full as usually, but it’s more of a domino effect there. I have a hunch as you get into the flush, those dryers may fill up. But you’ve got four other dryers, maybe five that aren’t. Now you go over to the west coast: California, those are drying. But California alone, as big as it is, is not enough to offset how much milk is not running into the dryers in the [00:06:00] rest of the country. And then you’ve got the Northwest, where there has been a lot of milk lost in the Northwest. And so that dryer isn’t running as full as probably previously expected. What happened was everybody just got together, finally started talking when they were all together in Palm Springs, and they realized when they did the math, even if we’re up 4.4% in milk production, we’re not drying more nonfat. Those skim solids are going elsewhere for various reasons. Diego Carvallo: The biggest question right now, Ted, is the lack of product in the Midwest and East Coast could balance out the lack of exports that we’re gonna have from this price rally. The numbers say that demand is approximately 60 million pounds. That number, it’s probably only 2% to 3% of U.S. nonfat production. So, it doesn’t seem like a huge number, but when you compare it to exports it is quite a volume. Ted Jacoby III: It really does add up. Yeah, no, I would agree with that. Jacob Menge: It sounds based on what Ted had just laid out and what you had said earlier, Diego, that this [00:07:00] isn’t necessarily a demand-driven rally. It’s really a lack-of-supply-driven rally. Ted Jacoby III: Yeah. A lack-of-supply-driven rally in an environment where everybody was expecting oversupply and kind of got caught surprised when they realized that even though there’s more milk, it didn’t fully translate to more powder. Jacob Menge: So, what changes it? Price? How long? What does end game here look like? Based on what I’m hearing, sounds to me like there’s almost not a price that is all of a sudden going to bring more supply out of the woodwork. So, is there a price that kills demand? People say, “Hey, we can’t make this number work anymore?” Ted Jacoby III: I think, actually, Diego just framed it a few minutes ago in the right way. This lost production that we were expecting, is it enough to make up for the fact that international demand for nonfat and skim milk powder isn’t actually that great? I think he’s hit the nail on the head. Let’s face it, skim milk powder, nonfat, dry milk is kind of the ultimate dairy commodity, which means it’s more price sensitive than others. And we’re gonna get to a point when we’re gonna find out where that [00:08:00] equilibrium point is between demand and supply. Josh White: There’s a few things that could tilt the scales a bit that I think we should just pay a little bit of attention to at the moment. You made a comment earlier that the production outta California isn’t enough to satisfy what we’re losing in terms of powder in the rest of the country. I wonder though, as we seasonally ramp up our milk volumes in the U.S., if we don’t satisfy that difference at a certain moment. I’m certainly not suggesting that that should make us all bearish. But I do think that there’s something worth noting there. Jake, you made a comment a moment ago that it doesn’t sound like there’s a price that slows it down. That same phenomenon is happening in Europe right now, and I think that Europe is also gonna seasonally increase their supply. They’ve got a lot of additional powder and there is a price out there that people substitute. There is a price out there at which you price out international demand. What we’ve gotta try to reconcile is all of this additional demand for skim solids in the U.S. is [00:09:00] that replacing our need to be an exporter of skim solids? I don’t have the numbers in front of me, but it feels like a reach to believe that we’re consuming enough to take away our need to compete internationally for skim demand. So that’s one thing that might just put a little bit of a seasonal ceiling on this thing as we move forward. The real question is, does that actually tilt us into a surplus situation again, or not? Big question that we should get our arms around. Additionally, I think that there is substitution within dairy. For the longest time, skim solids are very, very cheap. And as mentioned, the fortification into the cheese vat has been a pretty clear decision. When butterfat dropped to the price levels that it did, it makes a whole lot of sense to fortify. As these skim prices move a bit higher and dependent on our cheese price outlook going forward, does that math shift at all? I’ve heard arguments on both sides that the math does matter, and I’ve also heard arguments that the math really doesn’t matter. It’s all about [00:10:00] optimizing put through in the vat. So yeah, I think those are interesting topics for us to debate because those are the things that might tilt the market one way or the other. Ted Jacoby III: When it comes to skim solids versus butterfat in the vat, and let’s not forget, with the increase in solids in the milk, especially in butterfat, you’ve gotten the ratio of protein to fat outta whack, which is driving an increased need of skim solids into the cheese vat. The real math is: do you sell the cream or you divide the UF milk? Well, guess what? The UF milk is getting a lot more expensive right now. And so, you can make the case that you might actually force yourself to be comfortable selling the cream because it’s really a question of do you overpay for the skim solids or do you lose money on the butterfat if you sell the butterfat. At lower butter prices, for a couple of different reasons, you need a higher multiple on the cream in order to sell it. And one of the big ones is cost of freight as a percentage of the butterfat price has gone way up. You compare a $1.50 butter to $3 butter and on a percentage basis, your freight costs are twice as much [00:11:00] now. Which ultimately, when it comes to surplus cream, will drive down the multiple that you’ll receive for the cream. Josh White: You know, I don’t wanna shift gears, but I do wanna spend a moment just thinking about the milk production response and if our outlook shifted a little bit over the past month or two. ’cause going into the end of the year, it seemed like the U.S. and Europe were on a collision course, a game of chicken to decide who’s gonna be the first to drop price enough to see milk production slow down. Our global milk production, what is it up like 3.8% or something like that going into the end of the year on a solids basis, and no real sign of major change in the first half of the year, other than some signaling from European companies to lower their milk price and try to slow things down. Is this recent rally, whether it’s a short covering rally or whether it’s temporary, is this pushing out that response, whether it’s in Europe or the U.S., even further than we previously thought? Ted Jacoby III: I feel pretty comfortable saying no. And the reason I feel pretty [00:12:00] comfortable saying no, is for a couple of reasons. The biggest one is nonfat milk production is less than 15% of the milk supply of the U.S. And so, this rally in nonfat prices, it’s affecting less than 15% of the milk supply. Translated over a 100% of the milk supply, it’s not that big a number. I’m not sure it moves the dial a huge amount. Maybe I should back up a little bit because it’s now the higher of Class III and Class IV and Class I, and Class IV was trailing Class III by a dollar and now Class IV is ahead of Class III because of this rally. So yes, you’re starting to drive up prices there, too, so maybe it is helping the dairy farmer in a couple of places. While I agree that you’ve gotten a sympathy rally with cheese and butter, unlike nonfat, there’s more than enough butter and there’s more than enough cheese out there. And so we don’t actually see a true challenge to accessing supply with those two. So, while you may see increased futures levels at the moment, I’m not sure that’s going [00:13:00] to translate for a long enough period of time, the increased price levels for those products. Josh White: Just to play devil’s advocate, I think if you ask the market if fresh production of butter was readily available, the answer might be no. Ted Jacoby III: It’s either one of two things. There’s a lot of 82% being made for export. Or you’ve got 30¢ to 40¢ of carry in the futures market, and if I’m a butter manufacturer, and I’ve got any kind of working capital, I’m making 80%, I’m parking it in my own warehouse, I’m hedging it out to capture that extra 40¢, and I’m telling everybody I’m sold out. Well, guess what? That butterfat is still available. Once you get past the old crop, new crop March 1st date, that math changes, that’s only a month away. And I would even say you’re talking about the shortest month of the year, too. Josh White: Cheese has the same forward curve right now. Maybe not quite as dramatic, but a pretty good healthy contango going forward. What’s different about the cheese market? Ted Jacoby III: Cheese has a tendency to have carry in it when prices are low. The market is more used to this kind of carry in [00:14:00] cheese. Jacob Menge: The shelf life too. Ted, I mean Ted Jacoby III: that’s, that’s, well, that’s right. That’s the second one is cheese ages. And so six month old cheese is a different product than 30 day old cheese. With butter, there’s a reason why the CME rules for butter is up to 12 months after December 1st production. Whereas with cheese, it’s basically a 30 day market. And that has to do with how the product changes over time as it ages. Josh White: When we’re thinking about the cheese market, we’re talking about the U.S. milk production being up, year over year a lot. We throw a little salt on that because we recognize we’re comparing against bird flu impacted regions a year ago, but still lot more milk solids. Lot more butterfat out there. But at the same time, we’ve added plenty of Class III processing capacity, at least through the middle part of America to process quite a bit more milk. How is the whey component playing into this right now? Do we think these plants are gonna be highly motivated to fill up because of the return they’re getting for the whey [00:15:00] products, despite the cheese, situation you just mentioned, or are we really testing that desire to wanna fill up some of these plants as milk volumes pick up seasonally here in the state? Ted Jacoby III: So I can answer that question with the same answer two different ways. The first is: Please don’t forget that the Class III price ultimately insulates cheese manufacturers from major movements in price. If they’re having to sell all that cheese at a substantial discount to the market, they could be losing money making the cheese, but the reality is if they sell it anywhere close to the CME price, it’s still gonna be a net profit or at least a net break even for them on the cheese side. Meanwhile, if they have a whey protein dryer and they’re making WPC 80 to your WPC 90, Josh as you well know, as our primary whey trader, those are very, very profitable for cheese plants right now with the prices as high as they are. Josh White: Unprecedented. Mike Brown: Gives them a little room with a higher class IV price because of that return [00:16:00] from whey to pay a little more than the spread might normally indicate that they would. Just as a point of reference, if you look the most recent dairy production numbers we have products is for November, but Southwest was down 25% I think, in overall nonfat dry milk production. And they were 70% of the decrease over last year. Ted Jacoby III: Yep. Mike Brown: And you still have some plants filling up down there. Although, again, we’ll see what happens with this spread. But to the point we’ve all made earlier, it is a supply issue. And there’s no question those south central cheese plants in Kansas and Texas are a big part of the reason that there’s less milk going into powder. Ted Jacoby III: I had someone earlier today make a comment, and I never quite thought of it this way. He was actually talking about cheese, but I think the exact same thing goes for powder plants. Because the solids in the milk is up, they need less loads of milk to make the same amount of powder. And the bottleneck in the process a lot of times is not the milk receiving bay. So it literally means they have to take in less milk to get there. If you’re out in California, those bottlenecks are limiting how much milk they can [00:17:00] process. In the Southwest, they’re not. Josh White: Right. Ted Jacoby III: But demand for protein, I’ll frame it this way: We’re seeing huge increases in demand for whey proteins. We’re seeing increases in demand for milk proteins. We’re seeing increases in demand for UF milk, not just by cheese plants, but by ready to drink milk bottlers, as well, who really wanna sell that high protein milk. And that is what’s driving all of this. And it’s driving it away from the nonfat dryer, and it’s driving it towards cheese, which is a source of protein, whether it’s cheese or it’s the whey that comes off the cheese. It’s driving it towards those UF milk plants. It’s driving it towards milk protein concentrate plants. It’s really all about that huge increasing demand for protein that’s driving this. I don’t think it’s that hard to make the correlation that this big increase in the demand for dairy proteins across the dairy spectrum is what’s causing this powder market to be tight. Because it’s pulling milk away [00:18:00] from the nonfat dryer. Mike Brown: Yeah. And certainly, you have a fair amount of MPC capacity, certainly in New Mexico. If you can make a protein, you’re making a protein, I think, whether it’s milk or whey.Ted Jacoby III: I think that’s exactly right. So, Diego, where do we end? We were below a $1.20 three weeks ago. We’re at a $1.46 today. Are we gonna get to a $1.60? Diego Carvallo: Ted, I do know that the $1.40 is a strong psychological resistance and the futures are very close to it. I’m gonna monitor it. I don’t know how high we can go. At this point, it seems like a train, and I’m not gonna step in front of it. $1.50 is not impossible at this moment, but at the same time, I could tell you that we could have a strong correction also. So, very difficult to read right now. Ted Jacoby III: We just talked about a real nice rally going on in nonfat. The rally we think is because the demand for protein is pulling milk away from the nonfat dryer. Meanwhile, I think we have more than enough butter, though it may not be available yet, in terms of new crop, 80% butter sellable on the [00:19:00] CME. We think that we’re gonna have more than enough cheese, colored cheddar, which tends to be the product that drives price on the cheese side. So, even though we have had a rally in both of those products in futures, we’re not as strong of believers in the cheese market and the butter market as we are in the nonfat market right now. So, before we wrap up, we’re gonna do a quick lightning round question. We just came out of the Dairy Forum. We had many, many conversations with a lot of different people. What is the one thing happening in the dairy market right now that we think people are overlooking? Josh, I’m gonna start with you. Josh White: The reshaping of how milk trades across the country. I’m certainly not in the best position versus our milk team to address that, but the changes in where we can process milk, how we can process milk, and who’s demanding the milk is reshaping how things move. And I think that’s gonna test some of our experience and historical expectations for how a market responds to some of the signals we’re seeing now. I mean, let’s be real clear. Over the past 24 months, we’ve been surprised as a [00:20:00] dairy industry by two major things. It was not that long ago that you couldn’t get enough fat. The dairymen responded and it surprised the market, I think, to a point where now we’re expecting to be a fat exporter for a while. On the other side, if we go back, not even 60 days ago, the argument was will nonfat break a dollar? Or not. And today, we’re talking about it being a very firm market and citing a bunch of reasons why that happened. And the market, I believe, was surprised by that. So, if you’re a buyer out there, don’t assume that these markets can’t change and change fast. Definitely make sure you’re preparing yourselves for that because we just went through multiple years where there was almost no risk of getting access to nonfat supply, and we’re getting phone calls now where people need coverage right now and are having difficulties doing so. Ted Jacoby III: Thanks Josh. Mike, how about you? What’s something that nobody’s talking about right now that we probably should be paying attention to? Mike Brown: I think from the standpoint of the cheesemaker and that cost of those [00:21:00] protein solids is a three four spread flipping significantly. We’re $2 the other way again now. That cost of fortification has gone up a lot. Even with a $12 WPI market. That’s a big number to work with. And I think just in general, the growth in demand, whether it’s ultra filtered protein, fluid products, or the new cheese capacity we underestimated how that would hit the supply of nonfat dry milk, and we’re now living that. Ted Jacoby III: Excellent. Thanks Mike. Diego, how about you? Diego Carvallo: I have two things. One is the dollar weakness is something I haven’t heard a lot of people talking about and how that influences the prices for all commodities. And the second one is, I think a lot of people might be overlooking Mexican milk production. Ted Jacoby III: Up or down. Is it good or bad? Diego Carvallo: From informal reports, it could be strongly up. Ted Jacoby III: Okay. That would not be good for nonfat prices, would it? Diego Carvallo: Correct. Yep. Ted Jacoby III: Jake, how about you? Jacob Menge: I’ll go with just the upending of all kinds of long held assumptions. If you’ve got calculators you’ve been [00:22:00] using, dairy market calculators, between the milk price formula changes between dollar weakness changing between us flipping to be a fat exporter, throw it all out. There are just so many of these, probably long held assumptions, those kind of things that people that have been in the industry a while probably have like, “Well, my gut tells me this.” Question your gut. That’s my go-to train of thought moving forward. Ted Jacoby III: I think that’s a good one. And I will say, I think people are underestimating what this whole breeding to beef thing going on with the dairy farmer is doing to their decision-making process when it comes to killing cows. Everybody’s talking about how low the price is. Everybody’s wondering when this price will recover. And I keep asking myself, if every time a beef cow is born, you’re selling that cow for over a thousand dollars, why would you wanna get rid of that womb? ’cause that womb seems to be making you a lot of money. To all of our listeners out there, thank you so much for joining us this week, and we look forward to talking to you soon. Take care out there.

Estrenos en plataformas: El regreso de James L. Brooks en Disney+ y el 'slasher' con un actor de 'Stranger Things'

Es Cine

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 6, 2026 13:56

Sergio Pérez y Alma Espinosa hablan de los estrenos en plataformas como Netflix, Prime Video, Disney+ y Movistar Plus+. Esta semana los estrenos en plataformas traen propuestas variadas, aunque con críticas dispares. En Disney+ destaca Elle McCay, dirigida por James L. Brooks, responsable de Mejor imposible. Sin embargo, la crítica señala una narrativa confusa y ritmos de otros tiempos, en una trama ambientada en la era de Bush y Obama y marcada por traumas familiares y casos de acoso sexual que fuerzan dimisiones políticas. Para los amantes de la acción y comedia, Movistar Plus+ estrena London Calling, una historia de sicarios y huidas al estilo británico. También llega a esta plataforma Verano infernal, un slasher de estética ochentera donde un asesino enmascarado acecha a unos monitores de campamento, cumpliendo con los cánones más sangrientos e imaginativos del género. Con la cercanía de San Valentín, las plataformas apuestan por las relaciones sentimentales. Prime Video ofrece La meta es el amor, una comedia romántica sobre rivalidad profesional y libros de autoayuda como Relationship Goals. Por su parte, Netflix presenta la sudafricana Uf, ¿solo amigos? y la surcoreana Aunque nuestro amor se desvanezca esta noche, que destaca por su profundidad emocional y una trama centrada en la pérdida diaria de memoria. Finalmente, el cine internacional se hace hueco con El tesoro de Keops en Movistar Plus+, una cinta francesa de aventuras arqueológicas que recuerda a La búsqueda. En Acontra+ se estrena La tercera estrella, un drama culinario donde un chef japonés lucha por la excelencia en París, enfrentándose a la presión de conseguir su tercera estrella Michelin en un entorno altamente competitivo.

416: "The Real McCoy" ft. Fred Johnson and Rod Johnson

Sports Scene With Steve Russell Show Replay

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 3, 2026 108:21

Welcome to Stadium and Gale — your go-to show for straight-up, opinionated coverage of Florida Gators sports and the biggest storylines across the sports world.

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Sport Scene with Steve Russell

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 3, 2026 124:00

SS Rewind: Today, Steve Russell talked to Landon Stripling, a junior on the UF baseball team, and The Gainesville Sun sports writer Kevin Brockway. He also spoke to former MLB pitcher Kyle Peterson.

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Sportscene with Steve Russell 1/28/26

Sports Scene With Steve Russell Show Replay

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 28, 2026 121:22

On today's episode of Sportscene, Steve Russell is joined by the new UF baseball catcher, Karsen Bowen, as well as Larry Walker, the St. Francis High School Head Boys Basketball Coach. He is also joined by play-by-play voice of the South Carolina Gamecocks, Derek Scott.

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413: "Midtown to Midtown" ft. Neil Blackmon

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 20, 2026 72:10

fire drop sec tap stadiums absolute gators moves florida gators uf midtown blackmon

The Market is Lying to Us

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 16, 2026 27:01

Milk production is up 4.5% — but somehow, milk is clearing. Something doesn't add up. In this episode of The Milk Check, the team uncovers the shifts reshaping dairy economics in 2026. Ted Jacoby III leads a classic market roundtable with the Jacoby team to unpack what they're seeing as dairy transitions out of the holiday demand season and into early-year reality. Despite 4.5% year-over-year milk production growth, milk is clearing in many regions. Cheese and butter markets are under pressure, but inventories aren't yet burdensome. Protein markets remain tight. And nonfat dry milk is showing surprising strength. So what's going on? In this episode, we cover: Why added processing capacity may be masking where supply is really long How cheese and butter are absorbing milk that would normally back up at the farm Why protein demand is tightening skim solids and whey markets Whether nonfat's recent rally is real or a phantom And which dairy market narratives the team thinks are wrong right now If you're trying to make sense of conflicting signals across milk, fat, protein and powder, this episode delivers the context behind the numbers. Listen now to The Milk Check episode 90: The Market is Lying to Us. Got questions? We'd love to hear them. Submit below, and we might answer it on the show. Ask The Milk Check Ted Jacoby III: [00:00:00] Am I just being a conspiracy theorist? Diego Carvallo: I would probably bet a little bit on that conspiracy theory. It could be. It could be possible, Ted. Who knows. Ted Jacoby III: Welcome to the Milk Check from TC Jacob and Company, your complete guide to dairy markets, from the milking parlor to the supermarket shelf. I’m Ted Jacoby. Let’s dive in. We’re on the new side of the New Year. It is January 12th. we’re gonna have a classic market discussion today. Things have started to settle down from the holidays and I thought it would be a great idea just to share with everybody what we’re seeing in the markets as we’re transitioning from the high-demand season into the low-demand season. We have our usual suspects today. We have my brother Gus who manages our fluid group. We’ve got Josh White, head of our dairy ingredients group. We have Joe Maixner, head of all of our butter sales. Mike Brown, our Vice President of Market Intelligence, and myself. So, we’ll start with milk, Gus. What’s it look like right now? Gus Jacoby: It certainly isn’t tight, but it isn’t really long either. I think the November milk production was up [00:01:00] 4.5% and that typically would be fairly significant in areas where there isn’t a lot of additional processing capacity. One would think it would be very, very long with that kind of growth, but we’re not seeing that. Areas like the upper Midwest, Mideast, those areas are not as long as we thought they would be. I don’t want to act as if it’s tight. That’s not the case. Through the holidays, there was still plenty of milk that was around. But I think here as we climbed out of the New Year holiday and into mid-January, things have gotten fairly what we would say in balance. And that’s a little bit alarming considering that type of milk production growth. Ted Jacoby III: Why do you think that is? Is it just all the new capacity from all the new plants that have been built, or what else is going on? Gus Jacoby: Well, certainly in that western, upper Midwest and Southwest region, upstate New York as well, there’s been a lot of processing capacity that’s been added. So, those areas have been able to soak up that extra milk. I think milks travling a bit but I also think folks have found a little bit more efficient avenues to place the milk after dealing with some length over the past year [00:02:00] or so. But there’s a little bit of a question mark I have in the back of my mind as to how efficient we’ve been able to do so. Typically, when we have this kind of large growth, anything north of 4% is large, and large enough to be concerned about. But nonetheless, the processing capacity is significant. We don’t wanna discount that. But one can certainly wonder why in areas like the Mideast, where you haven’t really added a lot of production capacity here recently, why we aren’t seeing a bit more milk floating around. Ted Jacoby III: You think it’s just domino effect type things? Where, as milk is tighter in New York, so none of that milk is going into the southeast or into Appalachia, therefore it’s gotta be pulled from the Mideast? Gus Jacoby: Ted, that might be a part of it. I think domino effect is certainly going on here. There’s some areas of the country that don’t have enough milk because of that additional capacity we discussed. But having said all that, I think there’s some question marks out there right now as to why it isn’t a bit longer in certain parts of the country. Ted Jacoby III: What about some, I’ll call it non-traditional demand growth, and what I mean by that is things [00:03:00] like ESL or some of the protein drinks? It looks like there have been new brands showing up on the supermarket shelf lately. Gus Jacoby: If you’re alluding to areas like UF milk or high-protein fluid products there is certainly a lot of demand in that Class I, Class II segment of our industry. Add in the fact that you have a lot of demand for fortification solids for cheese plants, skim can seem a little bit tight right now, and there’s some logic behind that, but I don’t think there’s enough ultra filtration capacity right now to satisfy demand. So, if milk is going in that direction, there isn’t enough UF units out there, I think, to fill that void. And I wouldn’t say that’s the reason why we’re tightening up milk supplies by no means. In some parts of the world, yes, that might be the case, but that’s pretty small in the grand scheme of things. Ted Jacoby III: On the fluid side, is skim solids slash dairy protein tighter than the butterfat side? Gus Jacoby: Absolutely it is. Yes. I don’t think there’s any question about that. You’ve got two things driving [00:04:00] that. Too much butterfat requires cheese plants to gather more fortification solids, and the demand for protein right now is through the roof. You’re gonna have it hit from both sides and they’re hitting pretty strong. Ted Jacoby III: Could that extra skim solid slash dairy protein demand be what’s tightening up the milk market? Are we seeing it, for example, in lower cream multiples? Gus Jacoby: There still is plenty of cream around, to answer that question directly. I just don’t think there’s enough UF processing capacity at this moment in time to say that it’s tightening milk by any means. Ted Jacoby III: Could it be cheese plants taking the milk directly off the farm but spinning off a lot more cream? Gus Jacoby: I would say some of that is gonna go on. Yeah. ’cause there’s not enough fortification solids to be had, or at least not at the price the cheese plants are gonna be happy with. Cheese plants, even though they might prefer UF at times, they’ll take different types of skim solids and that certainly will tighten up that skim side of the market. That, combined with the fact that the protein sector is short, certainly you’re gonna have that element in our [00:05:00] market right now. I just think there’s enough milk out there, Ted, and not enough protein, isolation capacity of any sort to be the main reason as to why you’re not as long on milk as you think you should be. Ted Jacoby III: You know, I’ve had a theory going for a little while that all this extra capacity we’ve added, a lot of it is cheese capacity, and I feel like this time around, we’ve just transferred where we’re feeling the length. We’re not necessarily feeling the length in milk like we usually do. Instead, there’s enough processing capacity to get all that milk and to make cheese out of it. And therefore, we’re seeing the length in cheese, and we’re seeing the length in butter. And that’s why those two markets have been under so much pressure lately, whereas the milk market seems to be in balance. We’ve just moved down the supply chain a little bit where the length is manifesting. Does that make sense? Gus Jacoby: A little bit? Yeah. Mike Brown: It Does Make sense. Where you have new plants, they wanna be full. They’re cheese plants. They’re gonna try to fill those plants with milk to the extent they can market product, which is becoming a [00:06:00] concern as we see the CME cheese price continuing to drop. We’re also reaching a point when fat is very high, you can’t afford to fortify cheese vats because your skim solids price is high relative to fat. Right now everything’s kind of low, but powder relative to cheese, is as high as it’s been in quite a while. If you have revenue from waste stream, fortifying with nonfat or skim solids makes a whole lot of sense. But if you’re paying that full price for the casein portion of that skim, it gets closer again now too. It’s a little different situation than it’s been in a while. I don’t think Gus could be any more right about the need for more ultra filtered capacity. I’m just curious where it’s gonna show. Because the demand certainly seems to be there. Ted Jacoby III: If there’s one place where I think maybe we’re underestimating demand, it’s in that ESL protein space. And I agree with Gus, there’s probably not enough capacity to really manifest all of that resting demand or untapped demand, but I bet we’re maximizing that supply chain everywhere we can, especially given what we’re seeing in the whey protein [00:07:00] market right now. And it doesn’t show up in the data really clearly. You’re up four and a half percent in milk. Some of that is, we’re still measuring against weakness and we’re measuring against the bird flu outbreak that was happening a year ago. I just think there’s also some demand there possibly in that space that isn’t really showing up in the data in a way that makes it clear to everybody we’ve got some good demand in a couple of places. Having said that, I also think we’ve got more than enough cheese right now. We’ve got more than enough butter right now. But in both cases, and I’m gonna throw this at Joe I don’t think the inventories, at least what’s showing up in the cold storage data is telling us the inventories are burdensome yet. And that might just be when we are in the calendar, but it could just be we’re finding new places for demand. Joe, what are your thoughts? Joe Maixner: Yeah, inventories are definitely not burdensome right now. We’re coming off of pretty good draw down over the holiday season. Obviously, we’re really early into the inventory build period. But demand overall, coming back from [00:08:00] the holidays here, has been pretty strong out of the gate for the New Year. Everybody’s coming back to the office. They’re seeing these very depressed prices. And there’s been a lot of interest in both spot volume, building up some inventory on some spot buys, as well as some additional contract volume for the remainder of the year. So, going back to your comment on inventories, the one thing we always have to keep in mind with looking at cold storage is that number is all types of butter sitting in warehouse inventories. When it comes to pricing, the only thing that matters is 80% CME eligible bulk. We still have a fair amount of salted bulk, especially the older production, in people’s hands, and that has been showing up in the marketplace. A lot of that’s because there was not a lot of micro fixing for the holiday season. Cream was plentiful. People were making plenty of product outta fresh cream as opposed to reformulating that older butter into the retail pack. I think that there’s not a lot of fresh production being made right now [00:09:00] in the salted variety. We could see a nice little price pop here in the coming months once that older product becomes ineligible on the CME. Ted Jacoby III: It’ll be interesting to watch. It’s funny, I think there’s some interesting similarities, not with the old crop, new crop issue, but just some similarities on the cheese side. There’s an old saying about an anticipatory bull market where people start driving up the price ’cause they’re afraid of not having product tomorrow. This just feels like an anticipatory bear market where the inventory levels in cheese aren’t saying that we’ve got a massive amount of length and oversupply of cheese. But you can’t help but wonder if the reason the price is so low is because there is no one out there, both because they’re looking at their forecasted demand for their product and they’re looking at the forecasted milk supply, there’s just no one out there who has any worry about being able to get the cheese they need tomorrow. And so there’s no reason for them to go out there and buy the cheese today and tie up their capital when they’re pretty confident they’re gonna be able to get it tomorrow, maybe even at a lower price. And I get the feeling that there’s some similarities [00:10:00] in the butter market, too. But let’s switch over to the powder side. We’ve been talking about the strength in the protein market for a while, but lately we’ve been seeing some strength in the nonfat market. Diego, is that real strength is that long-term strength? Have we found a bottom in nonfat, what’s going on there? Diego Carvallo: Ted, it’s a very, very interesting question. It’s something everybody’s discussing and commenting about, right? The nonfat market feels like it’s way tighter, the spot market, than what most people were expecting. Right. And the funny thing is everybody has a different theory on what could be happening. We’re not sure what’s gonna happen in the coming months, but there’s definitely a few theories on why this market could be tight and why we’re seeing this kind of short covering rally that we saw in the past two weeks. There’s theories about more UF capacity in areas like the Midwest, which is creating a premium for that product in that region. There’s also theories of some plants in California [00:11:00] mainly being down during the months of November and October, which could have also created a shortage of product that needed to be delivered. Some point also to Mexico or the domestic market stepping in when prices reach the $1.10 or $1.15s and buying decent volumes. But the fact of the matter is, market is a little bit tighter, way tighter than what most anticipated at this period. At the same time, most people are expecting because of ample availability of milk in regions like California, that the market is gonna have to start building inventories because we are, I don’t know, 15 cents or 20 cents higher per pound than Europe. So we’re definitely not gonna be able to export a lot of product to Asia, to the Middle East, or to even Latin America at these prices. So, yeah, the market is tight, but the medium-term outlook is still that we’re gonna [00:12:00] see plenty of pressure. Ted Jacoby III: Any difference in price right now between skim milk powder and nonfat dry milk? Diego Carvallo: That differential between the two has shrank has been smaller because if you talk to most plants in California, everybody’s running nonfat at full capacity. Their plants are almost all of them at full capacity and nobody’s making skim this time of the year. It’s a throughput matter. They try to make as much nonfat as possible when they have plenty of milk. Ted Jacoby III: Interesting. You’d think if prices were going up in the U.S. but not going up in Europe, it would widen, but it’s actually shrinking. That’s wild. Diego Carvallo: Exactly. Yep. And with the U.S. making a lot of nonfat, all of that is gonna go into NDPSR, there should be pressure. At the same time, this week we have the ONIL tender, which most of the market is expecting a result and following it closely because if Europe doesn’t sell that tender, they’re gonna have more product and more pressure on their product. Ted Jacoby III: Makes sense. [00:13:00] Well, Europe’s had some surplus milk as well. Is it possible this market in the U.S. is popping because some of the European traders want it to pop so they can make sure that they clear the excess European product? Or am I just being a conspiracy theorist? Diego Carvallo: I would probably bet a little bit on that conspiracy theory. It could be. It could be possible, Ted. Who knows. Ted Jacoby III: Got it. All right. Sounds good. Josh, what’s going on in the whey market? We just keep talking about tight. Has anything changed? Josh White: No. It remains pretty tight. I think the whey protein demand seems strong. I will say coming into the year I’ve seen more product trade on the spot market, which is interesting. But the tale or the storyline is that that spot trade is still met with good demand and those prices are all still higher than the first quarter negotiated prices to many of the large users, meaning that there’s still good demand at these high prices, and the consumer hasn’t even seen these high prices yet. So it seems like it’s the same in Europe. First quarter is pretty much locked. Second quarter maybe there’s more vulnerability, but at the moment, I think that the [00:14:00] majority of the market would bet that we remain firm through the second quarter maybe even see some higher prices. I think what’s interesting if you look at the market is on the sweet whey powder side, you’ll have Europeans even comment that the whey market is a little bit firm, but they’re quite a bit lower than our price right now. And if you look at the forward futures prices, we have a classic short market. It’s inverted. It’s significantly inverted. And it’ll be curious to see if we really have that much additional sweet whey powder to either move the prices lower or we get enough demand pushback and reformulation to result in some extra product being available. But at the moment, across most of the whey complex it’s fairly firm, which I think tells the story. I mean, we went through the northern hemisphere’s lower milk production months, albeit we’re reporting really high year-over-year numbers, as you commented, compared to bird flu of a year ago in the West. People have had every incentive to place milk in any utilization other than butter and powder over the last few [00:15:00] months, and the market seems to be doing that. In addition to all of the other little comments, it feels like consumers knew that and really ran their supply chains pretty thin. And coming out of the holiday period, there is some short covering happening. Whether that’s just a derivative, speculative position short covering, physical short covering, it’s happening. In addition to that, when we look at the U.S., you can’t paint with a broad brush. The west seems to be running a lot of powder. The Midwest is not. And so that’s created a little bit of a tight situation here. So when you add the demand in Mexico for nonfat you add Midwestern pipeline filling, it’s enough that our spot market is carrying a really big premium to the rest of the world. We’ll see if that can continue as our daily milk production increases seasonally, both here and in Europe. I think that as that continues, as milk goes up, does that directly translate to butter and powder production going up? I would argue at least on some of these products, we know that the [00:16:00] WPI dryers are full. We know the WPC 80 dryers are full. I suspect that the MPC dryers are full and all of the fluid products going into those Class II products are probably full. So we’ll see if the market can handle the seasonal ramp up in production or not. And arguably, I think that’s what most of us are expecting. We’re expecting that we’ve still got plenty of milk. Then that’s gonna have some price pressure. But I also would comment that if we look back over the past few months, demand has been quite good. Global demand has been quite good. The question is, will it continue to be quite good or did we do a lot of buying in the late third quarter and early fourth quarter to refill the global pipeline? Things like Chinese New Year buying things like Ramadan buying and others, and are we gonna be met with an air pocket in demand as we start this year? Don’t know yet. The protein demand isn’t just in dry proteins or in UF for fortified milk. Mike Brown: It’s in yogurts. It’s in cottage cheese. At the same time, ice cream’s lackluster, sour cream is no better. And so that demand for [00:17:00] protein goes beyond just ingredients. On the whey side, boy, we’re gonna have to see a real shift in whey protein prices, wouldn’t we, Josh? We all know those dynamics can shift, but we’re a long ways from that. Other thing in California has got so much milk, they’re running everything full. If you look at anyone you talked the point made earlier, they can’t make SMP right now.They can’t, they are that full to the tilt. In fact, some of them are putting in production control programs again because they’ve got so much milk. Will milk move around, particularly if you can’t find a home for cheese no matter what the price is? Ted Jacoby III: The fact that California’s already running full and it’s the middle of January, which means we probably have at least a month and a half until they hit the peak of their flush. Mike Brown: Absolutely. Ted Jacoby III: That’s a Little bit concerning to me. Mike Brown: Yep. It, it should be to everyone and their spot prices show it. Cream’s been bad, and even the Midwest Class III spots are weak, but part of that’s because the cheese market’s weak. And that lag in Class III, which isn’t picked up in that weekly CME price until next month at the earliest. There’s signs that we’re seeing some shifts in the three four spread. We keep this up, [00:18:00] Ted, it’s gonna go away. Yeah. That may change where milk ends up. Ted Jacoby III: Yep. Diego Carvallo: I have a quick question, Ted. Where do you expect this extra milk in California to end up, because it seems it’s very early. I’m already hearing a lot of milk dumping in California. It seems like we’re at capacity in California. What’s the natural spill over for that milk? Ted Jacoby III: I’ve got two thoughts, but I wanna ask Gus a question first. Gus, if there’s one place where there might be extra UF capacity, would it be in California? Gus Jacoby: Perhaps, but probably not. Relative to demand. It’s limited pretty much all over the country. Ted Jacoby III: Okay. So what I’m gonna answer, in Diego’s question, first and foremost, we’ve lost a lot of milk in the Northwest. Yes. So I wouldn’t be surprised if it heads north on Interstate 10 and ends up in one of those plants in the state of Washington. That would be my first guess. My second guess would be the reason that I asked that question of Gus is they keep the butterfat in California and make butter out of it. Then they ship the UF milk to a cheese plant in the [00:19:00] southwest to extend the cheese yields there. If I were to guess it would happen in one of those two ways. Mike Brown: Diego, what you’re describing is exactly why they’ve put some production quotas back in California because they know it’s gonna get worse. And it makes perfect sense . To me, it’s gonna end up wherever the landed price is the best. On fat capacity, if California has the room to process fat, it’s gonna be in their best interest to process it. ’cause the people that buy surplus fat, outta California, that’s some of the lowest multiples in the country. Even when markets are tight. They’re not gonna wanna send that fat to Utah, Nebraska, or Washington State, or anywhere else if they can process it locally and store it. ’cause it’ll be just moving less water, it’s gonna be mm-hmm. To their benefit. And to Joe’s point. Butter markets are reasonably sound. I mean, they’re lower, but it doesn’t sound like we’re over big supply yet. But one thing we haven’t talked about much is that I think a lot of this price is gonna depend on if we keep exports strong. And that’s one of the big questions we all have. Are they gonna stay? I mean, certainly I think, Joe, listening to you talk, that’s helped a lot in [00:20:00] butter because we’re moving more than 82 overseas and we’re making more of it. On the cheese side. I’m hearing from some of the big cheddar guys that they’re still exporting cheese and relieved to do that. Prices are of course lower, but to me that’s really key. Particularly for products that aren’t as storable as powder. What are those trade markets gonna be? That may impact, where milk goes. Because even if cheese is a buck 30, if you sell it for 30 under, ’cause you have an oversupply, you’ve lost money. So that’s not something you’re gonna wanna do. Ted Jacoby III: All right. Well if I were to summarize really quickly what we’re seeing out there, I would say on the milk side, milk is clearing, which feels a little bit surprising given that we’re up 4.5%, but it’s probably due to all the extra capacity we have out there. However, on the butterfat side cream is long. Butter is long. And while we may get a new crop, old crop pop, the length probably will never fully go away. It just may be how the butterfat’s being processed and maybe we’ll have a temporary tightness in salted 80%. On the cheese side, we’re making a lot of cheese and we’re building inventories. [00:21:00] Mozzarella is feeling longer than cheddar because you can’t store mozzarella, whereas you can park cheddar in a warehouse if you want to, and that’s probably exactly what’s going on in the beginning of this year. Yes, we’ve got some exports but exports are not greater than they were at this time last year, though they may be at comparable levels, at least right now. But there seems to be a concern that that’s not sustainable like it was last year. On the nonfat side, that’s where we have some surprising tightness and we’re watching that market and we are watching it closely because there seems to be conflicting supply and demand indicators regarding where that tightness is coming from. And so our real big question is how sustainable this current tightness is. And on the whey market, whey market is strong. It’s been strong, it continues to be strong, and we haven’t really seen anything yet to change that narrative. And that in general probably sums up our dairy markets. I’m gonna ask everybody one lightning round question. What is one widely repeated dairy market narrative that you [00:22:00] think is wrong right now? Mike, I’m gonna start with you. Mike Brown: I think if there’s anything that is wrong or uncertain is how quick the response is gonna be to really, really low prices on milk supply. I still think we’re gonna take a while to back down and the folks that have really invested in and figured out the beef market are gonna be strong, but people that haven’t done that are gonna really get pummeled. So I think that’s it. How quick will we respond to the lower milk prices? How quick will market respond? It could be quicker than we think. Ted Jacoby III: You think it’ll be quicker. Mike Brown: I think it could be quicker. And I’m a good economist. I’m not gonna say it will, I’m gonna say it could, but yes, I think it could be a little quicker. Particularly with beef, with cull prices so high, there’s incentive to liquidate herds if you don’t wanna milk cows anymore right now. I’m not talking the 10,000 cow herds. I’m talking the smaller Midwest herds. Ted Jacoby III: You got it. Gus, what about you, one widely repeated dairy market narrative that you think is wrong? Gus Jacoby: I always have contrary perspectives on things. I don’t know what to tell you except, back to what I said originally. [00:23:00] Milk is just simply even with high growth production numbers, it’s not as long as some people might think in areas of the country where we haven’t added too much pricing capacity. All right. Sounds good. Diego, how about you? Diego Carvallo: I would say a lot of people are expecting farmers to be losing money at this level, and I think that’s wrong. Ted Jacoby III: They’re still making money. Diego Carvallo: Or maybe breaking even. Ted Jacoby III: All right. I like that one. Joe, how about you? Joe Maixner: I’m gonna buck Diego’s thoughts. I’m gonna go off a nonfat trend. I think that the nonfat market’s gonna continue to trend higher this year as opposed to fall back off. Ted Jacoby III: That’s a good one. That’s a good one. I will struggle with that one, but more power to you. Josh, how about you? Josh White: “This time’s different.” I don’t think this time’s any different than the prior times. I think it’s all perspective. Prices are gonna do what prices do to demand eventually. I realize that we have nuance to our markets, particularly with whey proteins, GLP-1 inspired demand, things like that. But I don’t know that I’m a subscriber to “this time’s different.” Ted Jacoby III: All right. Well, I’ll go ahead and venture mine out there, and I’m gonna have fun with it because I’m gonna [00:24:00] take the exact opposite side of the aisle from Mike and Gus, and I’m gonna say, I actually think this particular drop in prices is gonna last longer than the traditional six months. Usually you see it takes about six months for a market to bottom out and some of dairy farmer habits to change and see the market going back up. But I’m actually on the side of Diego. I think dairy farmers at this price are even still making money because they’re getting so much money from breeding to beef and in some cases from selling their manure. And as a result, their balance sheets will remain healthy. And they’re not gonna be under pressure to exit and sell their cows. I also believe that high beef prices have the inverse effect of what you would expect. And they don’t mean people will sell more cows. It actually means they’ll sell less because dairy farming’s a way of life. And so they’re gonna sell fewer cows to stay cash flow positive rather than more. And so I actually think that this one’s gonna take a lot longer than six months to adjust, but I think what’s really healthy is the fact that we have a diversity of opinions here, which means nobody really knows what’s gonna happen next. Alright guys, I thought [00:25:00] this was a great discussion. And, as it always is in the dairy industry, may we live in interesting times and this one’s not gonna be any different, is it? So thanks everybody for listening in. Great discussion today. Guys, thanks for joining us. Mike Brown: Thank you. Josh White: Thank you guys.

289. Co siać w styczniu i lutym. Dlaczego papryka tak długo kiełkuje?

Naturalnie o ogrodach

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 15, 2026 48:08

Omawiamy terminarz siewu na styczeń i luty. Zaczynamy, jeszcze w styczniu od wysiewu papryki i bakłażana. Nasiona tych warzyw bardzo długo kiełkują. Ale jest sposób na przyspieszenie tego procesu. To odpowiednia temperatura podłoża podczas kiełkowania. Wiesz, że papryka i bakłażan najszybciej kiełkują w temperaturze 26-30 stopni celsjusza? Uf, jak gorąco. :) Rozmawiają Katarzyna Bellingham i Jacek NaliwajekPolecane linki (reklama):Ogórek STARTER: https://bit.ly/4sDG87pOgórek OCTOPUS: https://bit.ly/4jAq5TGNasiona w Sklepie Katarzyny Bellingham: https://kasiabellinghamsklep.pl/Groszki pachnące oryginalne angielskie odmiany: https://kasiabellinghamsklep.pl/?s=groszek&post_type=productIndywidualne warsztaty planowania warzywnika: https://bit.ly/43jK17mNasze KSIĄŻKI Z AUTOGRAFEM!„Dobry rok w ogrodzie” Katarzyna Bellingham: https://allegro.pl/uzytkownik/kitty908Książka „Plan na warzywnik" Jacek Naliwajek: https://bit.ly/4imTaQHPolecane książki:Książka „Plan na warzywnik" Jacek Naliwajek: https://bit.ly/4imTaQHE-book „Plan na warzywnik": https://bit.ly/3EwJSDi„Dobry rok w ogrodzie” Katarzyna Bellingham: https://bit.ly/437mup8Ekologiczny Poradnik Księżycowy na 2026 rok: https://bit.ly/4mZalcQWięcej książek ogrodniczych znajdziesz w naszej Księgarni: https://kasiabellinghamsklep.pl/kategoria-produktu/ksiegarnia/Newsletter: https://naturalnieoogrodach.pl/Strona internetowa: https://naturalnieoogrodach.pl/Kontakt: naturalnieoogrodach@gmail.comPodcastu możesz też słuchać na aplikacjach mobilnych:�� Spotify: https://spoti.fi/2IT0uXP�� Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/2VN51RHZajrzyj do nas: FB: https://www.facebook.com/Naturalnie-o-ogrodach-803749476630224/IN: https://instagram.com/naturalnie.o.ogrodach/Co to za kanał „Naturalnie o ogrodach”?Opowiadamy o ogrodach naturalnych, ekologicznych, pożytecznych, wiejskich, miejskich i angielskich. Propagujemy i zachęcamy do uprawiania ogrodów ekologicznie, w zgodzie z naturą, bez chemii.#naturalnieoogrodach

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Swamp247 Podcast: Assessing Florida's 2026 transfer class, portal approach

class ncaa portal assessing gators florida gators uf dj lagway zach goodall

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 14, 2026 43:32

The Swamp247 Podcast is back in your feeds, as hosts Zach Goodall and Tyler Harden on Wednesday assessed Jon Sumrall and the new Florida coaching staff's approach to recruiting the 2026 NCAA transfer portal. Among the topics Zach and Tyler discuss are Florida's roster retention efforts — highlighted by running back Jadan Baugh, wide receivers Dallas Wilson and Vernell Brown III, edge rusher Jayden Woods and linebacker Myles Graham agreeing to return to the program; the 23 transfer commitments UF has obtained thus far, headlined by the acquisitions of wide receiver Eric Singleton Jr. and quarterback Aaron Philo, with additional visits on the docket; DJ Lagway and the Gators' 31 other outgoing transfers, and other takeaways from the team's roster flip this offseason. Follow Swamp247.com for the best coverage of the Florida Gators! To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Fish Tank Safety With Dr. Roy Yanong!

The Anna & Raven Show

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 14, 2026 4:07

Dr. Roy Yanong is a fish and aquatic animal expert at the UF tropical aquaculture laboratory. Today, he spoke with Anna and Raven about fish tanks and keeping them clean to avoid Anna's incident!

safety uf fish tanks

Wednesday, January 14, 2026: Super bowl Conspiracy's; Fish Tank Fears; Chef Plum Sourdough Hacks!

The Anna & Raven Show

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 14, 2026 51:23

Conspiracy time with Anna! She tries to convince Raven why the Superbowl logo always has hints as to who's making it to the big game since it was recently released. Raven is not for it. Sideline Reporter Morgan Bedard join Anna & Raven for a look ahead into this upcoming weekends playoffs! Anna & Raven are on the hunt to find the "Plumpest Pup" in lieu of the recent talks of GLP1s for dogs. Today we're joined by Lexi and her pup Tyler! Anna's sister had a traumatizing accident when cleaning to her fish tank, leaving anna now scared to clean her own, not knowing the precautions needed to be taken to do so. Dr. Roy Yanong is a fish and aquatic animal expert at the UF tropical aquaculture laboratory. Today, he spoke with Anna and Raven about fish tanks and keeping them clean to avoid Anna's incident! Chef Plum is back for a very important topic. Sourdough. Annas is convinced she killed her sourdough starter. Plum gives his tips and tricks to know if you are on trakc with this tricky process Koa is a big loving rottweiler regardless of the fact that he looks like a bear. He is one of our finalists who you will be able to vote for starting tomorrow afternoon! Anna puts Raven to the test with her original game “Celebrity Real Estate Agent”. With the “Fresh Prince of Bel-Air" house going up for sale, Anna thought this was a great time to quiz Raven on how much these famous television houses cost. Macey is another finalist in the ring for our Plumpest Pup contest. Macey is a food snatcher and loves hot dogs and chicken. Voting start tomorrow on thr AnnaandRaven socials! Lena and David booked their daughter's sixth birthday party for Super Bowl Sunday from 2p to 4p at a local arcade/bounce house party place. So far, three people have RSVP'd no. He thinks it's because it's Super Bowl Sunday and wants to push it to the following week. She says that's ridiculous, it's over at 4p, hours before the game starts! Is it wrong to host a kid's birthday on Super Bowl Sunday? Lesly has a chance to win $2400! All she has to do is answer more pop culture questions than Raven in Can't Beat Raven!

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Hoop! There it is (1/12/26)

Hoop! There it is

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 12, 2026 63:22

In today's episode, Steve Russell and Mark Wise discuss the UF men's basketball team's big win over the Tennessee Volunteers this past Saturday. They highlight a standout performance from starter Boogie Fland who scored his season high of 23 points.

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Lula barra redução de penas de golpistas

Primeiro Café

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 9, 2026 9:08

Quando a tentativa de golpe completou 3 anos, o presidente Lula vetou integralmente o projeto aprovado no Congresso que reduz as penas dos golpistas condenados. Em um ato em Brasília para lembrar o 8 de janeiro de 2023, o governo reforçou a defesa da democracia. Agora, o Congresso deve derrubar o veto do presidente e o caso será decidido no STF.Ainda: Bolsonaro pede autorização para reduzir pena lendo livros; polícia de imigração de Trump mapa norte-americana; Venezuela diz que vai liberar presos políticos; Ufólogo responsável por popularizar o caso do ET de Varginha diz que não acredita na história.Saiba mais: https://linktr.ee/primeirocafenoar

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OVERHAUL: Florida Gators LOSE DJ Lagway and Hayden Hansen–KEEPING Jadan Baugh A MUST

College Football Smothered and Covered

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 19, 2025 30:23

The Florida Gators face major changes as DJ Lagway and top players exit via the transfer portal, but does their revamped NIL approach position them as a sleeper for new elite talent? The quarterback search intensified with Buster Faulkner's arrival as OC, sparking speculation around Portal targets like Colton Joseph, Aaron Philo, and Kenny Minchey. Strategic roster shifts and key departures—including Hayden Hansen at tight end and questions around Jaden Baugh's future—leave fans wondering how Florida can rebuild depth at offensive line, safety, and defensive line.Brian Smith and Brandon Olsen break down the implications of Florida's portal activity, roster priorities, and the long-term game plan. Will the Gators' aggressive transfer strategy and coaching changes turn the tide for the 2026 season, or will impatient fans demand results before high school recruits mature? Can Faulkner's offense attract standout QBs and weapons, or will lingering issues in the trenches hold UF back from an eight-win turnaround?Everydayer Club If you never miss an episode, it's time to make it official. Join the Locked On Everydayer Club and get ad-free audio, access to our members-only Discord, and more — all built for our most loyal fans. Click here to learn more and join the community: https://theportal.supercast.com/On X @fbscout_floridaTikTok @lockedontheportalHelp us by supporting our sponsors!Omaha SteaksSave big on unforgettable gifts with Omaha Steaks. Visit https://OmahaSteaks.com for 50% off site-wide and an extra 20% off select favorites during their Cyber Sale. And for an additional $35 off, use promo code COLLEGE at checkout. WayfairGet last-minute hosting essentials, gifts for all your loved ones, and decor to celebrate the holidays for WAY less.Head to https://Wayfair.com right now to shop all things home. Wayfair. Every style. Every home. Rocket MoneyTake control of your finances and cancel your unwanted subscriptions with Rocket Money. Go to https://RocketMoney.com/LOCKEDON today. Aura FramesFor a limited time, save on the perfect gift by visiting https://AuraFrames.com to get $35 off Aura's best-selling Carver Mat frames - named #1 by Wirecutter - by using promo code COLLEGE at checkout.GametimeToday's episode is brought to you by Gametime. Download the Gametime app, create an account, and use code LOCKEDONCOLLEGE for $20 off your first purchase. Terms and conditions apply.FanDuelToday's episode is brought to you by FanDuel. Football season is around the corner, visit the FanDuel App today and start planning your futures bets now.FANDUEL DISCLAIMER: 21+ in select states. First online real money wager only. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable free bets that expires in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, MD, MI, NJ, PA, IL, VA, WV), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (WY, KS) or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

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No soporto a su familia, ¿qué hago en Navidad?

Cómo resolver tus problemas de pareja

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 19, 2025 11:00

¿Te encanta tu pareja… pero no soportas a su familia? Y llega Navidad, las comidas largas, las miradas incómodas, los comentarios fuera de lugar… y por dentro solo piensas: “Uf, no quiero.” En este episodio hablamos de una realidad muy común y poco nombrada: cuando la relación va bien, pero el entorno familiar de tu pareja te desgasta emocionalmente. No porque seas mala persona. No porque no lo intentes. Sino porque hay comportamientos que te colocan en un lugar incómodo… y eso pasa factura. En este episodio te ayudo a entender: • Por qué no es obligatorio llevarte bien con la familia de tu pareja • De dónde nace la culpa por “no encajar” • Por qué muchas veces el verdadero conflicto no es la familia, sino cómo se coloca tu pareja • Qué necesitas realmente para no sentirte solo/a en ese contexto • Cómo poner límites sin crear una guerra familiar • Y por qué Navidad no es el momento de reproches, batallas morales ni grandes discursos También te cuento un ejemplo realista (Pablo y Lucía) que refleja muy bien lo que duele de verdad en estas situaciones: no es no gustar… sino sentirte invisible o desprotegido/a. Porque una cosa es no encajar. Y otra muy distinta es desaparecer para que todo esté en calma. ✨ Si este tema te remueve y quieres entender tu caso concreto, o aprender a hablar de esto con tu pareja sin acabar discutiendo, puedes reservar tu consulta gratuita aquí: 👉 https://emocioteca.com/contacto/ 📺 Este episodio también está disponible en versión completa en YouTube, dentro del canal Emocioteca, por si prefieres verlo a cámara. 🎧 Y si te gusta escucharlo mientras haces tu día, lo tienes aquí mismo, en iVoox, dentro del podcast Cómo resolver tus problemas de pareja. 💜 Si este episodio te ha ayudado, dale a me gusta, compártelo o déjame un comentario. Cuéntame qué parte te ha resonado más. Porque respetarte en los vínculos… también es respetarte a ti. 🔎 Si algo de esto te tocó por dentro, cuéntamelo. De ahí nacen los mejores episodios. Escucha el episodio completo en la app de iVoox, o descubre todo el catálogo de iVoox Originals

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CFP First Round and Bowl Mania Pt.1

ThePlaybookPodcast

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 18, 2025 77:30

The Boys are back to break down the four first round playoff games and to pick every bowl game. Jean gives us a UF update, Doe waxs poetic about Miami and their playoff hopes, and much more!

miami boys first round uf bowl mania

UF Season 3 Episode 49: Walking Through Infertility with Guests Scott and Lori Morgan

Unwanted Fraternity

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 18, 2025 34:33

What an incredible series of two episodes you don't want to miss! UF welcomes guests Scott and Lori Morgan as they share their 9-year journey with infertility and how it challenged their faith and led them to hope.

walking infertility uf lori morgan

SD337 - O que está faltando ao Docente de Medicina?

Saúde Digital

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 16, 2025 52:01

SD337 - O que está faltando ao Docente de Medicina? Neste episódio, Dr. Lorenzo Tomé recebe o Prof. Cássio Ibiapina, médico, educador e idealizador do emPRO, para discutirem uma das lacunas mais profundas e silenciosas da formação médica: a falta de preparo pedagógico dos docentes. Apesar de dominarem o conhecimento clínico, a maioria dos professores nunca foi treinada para ensinar, e isso impacta diretamente a qualidade da formação, a experiência do aluno e os resultados em saúde. O emPRO é um curso que prepara professores e preceptores capazes de inspirar, formar profissionais mais críticos e melhorar a prática médica para as próximas gerações. Dica de livro: Margem por Richard Swenson O podcast Saúde Digital tem o propósito de lhe ajudar a abrir a mente. Agora imagine o quanto 2 dias de imersão com a gente podem impactar o seu negócio médico. A próxima Imersão SD já tem data: 21 e 22 de março/2026. Garanta sua vaga com 10% de desconto na Imersão da SD Escola de Negócios Médicos. FAÇA CONTATO O Background do Cássio Um sonhador, filho do Prof. Ibiapina, formado em medicina pela UF de Juiz de Fora/MG com especialização em Pediatria e Pneumologia Pediátrica, fazendo Mestrado e Doutorado na área de Pneumologia e Pós-Doutorado na Hollanda. Sua vocação de professor o levou a estudar ensino médico para capacitar professores e, nesse processo de aperfeiçoar e contribuir, ele criou, juntamente com o Prof. Ari, um curso de educação médica profissional: o emPRO. Assista este episódio também em vídeo no YouTube no nosso canal Saúde Digital Podcast! Acesse os Episódios Anteriores! SD336 - Como Transformar sua Clínica com Gestão de Alto Nível SD335 - A Matemática por trás da decisão de largar o convênio SD334 - Porque Médicos que Criam Ecossistema Vivem Melhor que Aqueles que Só Fazem Consulta e Retorno Music: Friendship| Declan DP "Music © Copyright Declan DP 2018 - Present. https://license.declandp.info | License ID: DDP1590665"

DJ leaves Gators as Sumrall's roster rebuild begins (Ep. 416)

Swamp Things: Florida Gators Show

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 16, 2025 64:07

Florida quarterback DJ Lagway hits the transfer portal after a sophomore slump and slew of injuries left a new coaching staff wondering if the 20-year-old was worth the investment. Lagway's exit is among many. But reinforcements are on the way as free agency in college football begins, even with the portal not set to open until Jan. 2. Meanwhile, Sumrall continues to build his staff even as he prepares Tulane for Saturday's CFP matchup at Ole Miss. During the latest Swamp Things, Edgar and Mark discuss the Gators' comings and goings. Gators dropping like flies (00:00) Where does DJ go? (8:30) New Gator QB? (17:28) Who does UF want to keep? (22:47) Roster will be unrecognizable (30:53) Phill Trautwein and other hires (32:00) Need continuity for team (40:43) Heisman voters slammed (43:24) College game picks (50:44) Jeremy Foley''s Corner: Men's basketball (56:52)

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194: Complexos físics

Easy Catalan: Learn Catalan with everyday conversations | Converses del dia a dia per aprendre català

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 11, 2025 23:01

Tema del dia La Sílvia avui ens proposa parlar sobre aquelles preocupacions que tenim en relació amb el propi cos: la forma del nas o els llavis, el nostre pes, els nostres cabells, les nostres pigues... Tot allò que sovint ens avergonyeix quan, en realitat, ens fa únics i especials. Som-hi! Bonus Continuem la conversa i ens centrem en els típics comentaris sobre el físic que ens fan sovint coneguts i familiars. Transcripció Sílvia: [0:15] Bon dia, Andreu! Andreu: [0:16] Bon dia, Sílvia! Sílvia: [0:17] Com anem? Andreu: [0:18] Tot bé. Sílvia: [0:19] Sí? Andreu: [0:19] Tot bé, amb gana. Encara no he esmorzat, però... Sílvia: [0:22] Apa! Encara no has esmorzat? Jo ja fa estona que he esmorzat. Andreu: [0:25] Bé, he esmorzat una mica, molt poquet, però he de fer el segon esmorzar. Sílvia: [0:28] Ah, d'acord. Andreu: [0:30] Tu no fas segon esmorzar? Sílvia: [0:31] Sí, clar! Jo en dic "resmorzó". Andreu: [0:33] "Resmorzó". Està bé, m'agrada. Sílvia: [0:36] Sí. A mig matí. A mig matí, un resmorzó. Home, va bé per acabar d'aguantar fins a l'hora de dinar. Andreu: [0:41] Clar, és que… recordem que aquí dinem tard. Bé, a casa vostra dineu prou aviat, no? A la una o així? Sílvia: [0:47] Sí, dos quarts de dues, però sí. Andreu: [0:49] Sí, està bé, està bé. Jo solc dinar més cap a les dos, quarts de tres... Sílvia: [0:55] Uf! Andreu: [0:56] Tres... Sílvia: [0:56] Vaja! Andreu: [0:57] Sí. Llavors, clar... Sílvia: [0:59] Ja començo a patir. Andreu: [1:02] Sí, sí. Sílvia: [1:03] O sigui, quan es fan les tres ja estic una mica que mossego. Andreu: [1:06] Ah, és veritat, és veritat. Tu et poses de mal humor quan tens gana. Sílvia: [1:10] Molt. Andreu: [1:10] Jo no quan tinc gana, sinó quan he dormit malament. O sigui, si no dormo bé, l'endemà estic de molt mala lluna. I això t'ho pot certificar el Jesús. No, tothom no, perquè davant de persones que no tinc tanta confiança, doncs faig l'esforç de... Sílvia: [1:31] Ah! Fas el cor fort? Andreu: [1:32] Intento que no es noti tant, però amb qui tinc tota la confiança és com... Sílvia: [1:36] S'ho menja tot. Molt bé, "estupendo". Sílvia: [1:37] Zero filtres. Sí, sí. Sap greu, però és així. Sílvia: [1:40] És així, la vida. Andreu: [1:41] És així. Sílvia: [1:41] Sempre diuen que els que viuen amb tu els hauries de tractar com companys de feina, vull dir, amb respecte, que no els hi gosaries dir les coses de qualsevol manera, no? Però molt bonica la teoria, molt complicada la pràctica. Andreu: [1:53] Ja… Però jo gairebé que tractava més els companys de feina com a parella que no al revés. Sílvia: [2:00] Ah, vaja! Andreu: [2:02] Bé, però perquè teníem confiança. És allò que diuen que la confiança fa pudor, fa fàstic, no? Sílvia: [2:07] Sí. Andreu: [2:07] Bé, en fi. Fes-te membre de la subscripció de pòdcast per accedir a les transcripcions completes, a la reproducció interactiva amb Transcript Player i a l'ajuda de vocabulari. (http://easycatalan.org/membership)

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607: Why Being Yourself Is the Most Underrated Strategy in Premed

The Premed Years

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 10, 2025 42:57

(00:00) - Dream to Physician(09:36) - Navigating Premed at UF(17:46) - Navigating Mentorship in Premed Culture(28:58) - Navigating Medical School Challenges(38:00) - Embracing Support in Medical SchoolWhen Kelviyana was just 15, their world changed overnight as they became the primary caretaker for their mother, newly diagnosed with breast cancer. This poignant experience ignited Kelviyana's passion for medicine, providing a firsthand look at the compassionate care of healthcare professionals. That transformative moment set the stage for a lifelong mission to be a source of hope and support, leaving a lasting impression on their journey from aspiring physician to dedicated med student.As Kelviyana navigated the bustling corridors of the University of Florida, they faced the daunting reality of being a minority in a vast institution. Discover how they crafted a robust support system through family, friends, and the Health and Advocacy Promotion Initiative (HAPI), a club they founded to champion health education and self-advocacy. Kelviyana's narrative underscores the importance of aligning academic pursuits with personal passions, not just to build a resume but to foster meaningful change.Premed culture often pushes students into a boxed checklist approach, but Kelviyana emphasizes the power of authenticity and self-belief. Whether it's exploring unconventional interests or overcoming imposter syndrome, they remind us that success in medical school applications comes from embracing one's unique qualities. Listen as Kelviyana shares the vital lesson that grades do not solely define potential, urging future doctors to persevere, seek support, and trust in their ability to achieve their dreams, even amidst setbacks.

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(12/8/25): Impatiently awaiting FSU's mega moves, CFP silliness, QB market

Wake Up Warchant

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 8, 2025 73:42

(2:00) CFP Final Reveal: a tradition disliked more than any other(8:00) FSU passes on bowl?(16:00) Patrick Surtain the first move?!(24:00) The weirdest hires in the cycle(28:00) UF's former coach gets scooped by playoff squad(32:00) Was is the plan, why wasn't it figured out 2 months ago(53:00) How will the QB market be?(1:01:00) Hoops, soccerMusic: Midfield - Southpawvitaminenergy.com | PROMO: warchantbogo | buy one, get one free!In Crawfordville, your Home Convenience Store is ACE Home Center & NAPA Auto Parts located at 2709 Crawfordville Hwy Download the Underdog app today and sign up with promo code WARCHANT to score A HUNDRED dollars in Bonus Funds when you play your first five dollarsMust be 18+ (19+ in Alabama & Nebraska; 19+ in Colorado for some games; 21+ in Arizona, Massachusetts & Virginia) and present in a state where Underdog Fantasy operates. Terms apply. See assets.underdogfantasy.com/web/PlayandGetTerms_DFS_.html for details. Offer not valid in Maryland, Michigan, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Concerned with your play? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit www.ncpgambling.org. In New York, call the 24/7 HOPEline at 1-877-8-HOPENY or Text HOPENY (46736) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

(12/8/25): Impatiently awaiting FSU's mega moves, CFP silliness, QB market

Wake Up Warchant - Florida State football

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 8, 2025 73:42

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Swamp247: Breaking down Early Signing Day for the Florida Gators

Le Batard & Friends Network

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 8, 2025 28:24

The Swamp247 Podcast returns with another episode to break down Early Signing Day for the Florida Gators, along with discussing UF's recent staff hires made by newly hired head coach Jon Sumrall. The hosts – Graham Hall, Zach Goodall and Tyler Harden – detail Jon Sumrall's hiring of Brad White and Buster Faulkner, along with discussing the 19 signees made by the Gators. In the final segment, we discuss what the week ahead could look like for the Gators. Follow Swamp247.com for the best coverage of the Florida Gators! To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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ZASLOW SHOW 2.0 - Time To Bench Tua

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 1, 2025 43:47

On today's edition of ZASLOW SHOW 2.0, Zaslow recaps the football weekend, including giving credit to Dolphins Coach Mike McDaniel. But, should his next move be to bench Tua Tagovailoa? Also, a full NFL Rundown of this week's action. Plus, did UF dodge a bullet with Lane Kiffin choosing LSU? ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠The Law Offices of Anidjar & Levine⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ "ZASLOW SHOW 2.0" is presented by Anidjar & Levine, Accident Attorneys. Call 800-747-FREE (3733) and get the money you deserve. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Sawgrass Infiniti⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ - Florida's #1 Volume Infiniti Dealer. Financing as low as 0% APR Available. $0 Down Payment Required. 400 New Infiniti models in stock at all times. Where the Commercial Ends and the Savings Begin. Conveniently located off the Sawgrass & Commercial Blvd. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠CanesWear⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ has the largest selection of Miami Hurricanes items. And, an amazing selection of all your favorite South Florida Pro teams. Dolphins, Panthers, Heat, Inter Miami and Marlins items, are all available. No matter which South Florida Team you root for, CanesWear is the spot, Miami fans shop, CanesWear.com ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Signature Real Estate⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Whether you're buying your dream home, selling your property, or looking to join the best in the business, contact Matthew H. Maschler at 561-208-3334 or Matt@RealEstateFinder.com ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Johnny Cuba⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Official beer of ZASLOW SHOW 2.0 - European Roots with a Caribbean Soul #StayTranquilo ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Legacy Lab⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ If something were to happen to you today, would your loved ones know what to do? Legacy Lab helps people organize their end-of-life and incapacity info in one convenient, secure location. Download the app today for peace of mind for you, your family and loved ones. If your business targets 25-54 year old Men, let's advertise on ZASLOW SHOW 2.0!! Email jonathanzaslow@gmail.com and join the growing list of partners!! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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(12/1/25): Big time QB or bust, was this in some ways worse than 2024?

Wake Up Warchant

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 1, 2025 81:23

(3:00) The bad, the ugly from loss to a UF team that had 3 wins(7:00) FSU is in the wilderness(12:00) So trenches or QB biggest need for 2026?(25:00) We were told 2-10 predicted nothing for 2025. Now we're saying 2025 won't predict 2026?(35:00) Was this in some ways worse than 2-10?(55:00) So what's the wishlist and when should moves starting leaking out?Music - Miss Fortune: Kinda Misunderstoodvitaminenergy.com | PROMO: warchantbogo | buy one, get one free!In Crawfordville, your Home Convenience Store is ACE Home Center & NAPA Auto Parts located at 2709 Crawfordville Hwy Download the Underdog app today and sign up with promo code WARCHANT to score A HUNDRED dollars in Bonus Funds when you play your first five dollarsMust be 18+ (19+ in Alabama & Nebraska; 19+ in Colorado for some games; 21+ in Arizona, Massachusetts & Virginia) and present in a state where Underdog Fantasy operates. Terms apply. See assets.underdogfantasy.com/web/PlayandGetTerms_DFS_.html for details. Offer not valid in Maryland, Michigan, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Concerned with your play? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit www.ncpgambling.org. In New York, call the 24/7 HOPEline at 1-877-8-HOPENY or Text HOPENY (46736) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

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The Swamp247 Podcast returns to discuss Florida's hiring of Tulane's Jon Sumrall as the program's next head coach. The hosts, Graham Hall and Zach Goodall, discuss UF pivoting from Lane Kiffin to Sumrall, the hiring of David Caldwell as GM, and who could be joining Sumrall in Gainesville. Follow Swamp247.com for the best coverage of the Florida Gators! To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Healing What Medicine Missed- Dr Andria Klioze

The Crackin' Backs Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 24, 2025 62:29 Transcription Available

In this compelling episode of the Crackin' Backs Podcast, we sit down with Dr. Andria Klioze—physician, disease-reversal pioneer, and founder of the wellness platform Shield of Life. After years inside the rule-bound system of the Veterans Affairs (VA) caring for patients with advanced illnesses, Dr. Klioze made a bold decision: to leave the traditional structure and build a new model of care focused on gut health, soil microbiome, energy medicine, and true resilience.In this episode you'll learn:What it costs a doctor to trade “prescriptions for possibility,” and how hope, truth, love and faith can meet evidence-based medicine.The hardest lessons she had to unlearn after stepping away from the VA, and what healing really looks like when you remove bureaucracy.Why she calls her garden philosophy – and how the soil beneath your feet may reflect the health within your body.Her breakthrough integration of the human gut microbiome, soil biology and pulsed electromagnetic activation (PEMA), uniting energy medicine and biology.A life-changing patient story that redefines “reversal,” and the tools she uses when everyday life feels numb or cynical to keep belief alive.Whether you're looking for ways to reverse disease, reboot your health, or question the limits of modern medicine, this discussion cuts deep. It's for the seekers, the skeptics, and anyone ready to step into possibility.About Dr. Andria Klioze:Dr. Klioze graduated from the Eastern Virginia Medical School in 1995, completed her residency in internal medicine at the University of Florida College of Medicine in 1999 and a fellowship in faculty development in 2002. She is board-certified in Internal Medicine and Obesity Medicine. In 2002 she left her role as Director of Faculty Development at UF and as a hospitalist for the VA in Gainesville, to work in the VA's new metabolic clinic in Daytona Beach. Today she leads Shield of Life, a physician-led program that focuses on disease-mitigation, remission and reversal through holistic, science-driven protocols.Learn more & connect with Dr. Klioze: Website: Shield for Life Instagram: @drandriaklioze Facebook: Shield of Life Facebook Page(Check for her podcast, webinars and educational series at her site.)Don't miss this—tap in now and discover what modern medicine misses, what your body knows, and how one physician is rewriting the rules of healing.We are two sports chiropractors, seeking knowledge from some of the best resources in the world of health. From our perspective, health is more than just “Crackin Backs” but a deep dive into physical, mental, and nutritional well-being philosophies. Join us as we talk to some of the greatest minds and discover some of the most incredible gems you can use to maintain a higher level of health. Crackin Backs Podcast

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Swamp247 Podcast: The latest on Florida's coaching search ahead of Florida vs. Tennessee

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Play Episode Listen Later Nov 20, 2025 30:28

The Swamp247 Podcast returns to briefly recap Florida's loss at Ole Miss, along with discussing UF's contest against Tennessee, yet the majority of this episode revolves around Florida's ongoing coaching search. The hosts, Graham Hall and Zach Goodall, dive into Florida's pursuit of Lane Kiffin, the confidence coming out of LSU and what the road ahead looks like if UF doesn't land Kiffin. Follow Swamp247.com for the best coverage of the Florida Gators! To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Swamp247 Podcast: Florida falls in Kentucky, looks to bounce back vs. Ole Miss

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 13, 2025 40:27

The Swamp247 Podcast returns to briefly recap UF's 38-7 loss at Kentucky, along with preview and predict Saturday's contest in Oxford against Ole Miss, led by head coach Lane Kiffin. The hosts, Graham Hall and Zach Goodall, discuss the disappointing aspects of the loss to the Wildcats, from the defense's performance to DJ Lagway's benching, along with pondering whether or not UF is capable of a bounce back. After going over the Rebels' impressive season, the hosts predict how Saturday's game unfolds in Oxford. Follow Swamp247.com for the best coverage of the Florida Gators! To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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FSU Basketball, VT Preview + More

Front Row Noles

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 13, 2025 41:37

Tom, KJ and Bob talk about FSU Men's Basketball's narrow loss to UF, Robert McCray's 29-point outburst, reactions to Mike Norvell's Monday press conference, VT preview, and more. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

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BILLY NAPIER FIRED! Lane Kiffin Top Target | Gator Nation REACTS on Gators Breakdown Plus Chat

Gators Breakdown

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 20, 2025 96:20

LIKE, COMMENT, SUBSCRIBE The moment many Florida fans have been waiting for has finally arrived! Join David Waters and the Gators Breakdown Plus community for an members-only chat reacting to Billy Napier's firing after a 22-23 record at UF. Billy Gonzales named interim coach as the Gators begin their crucial coaching search. We discuss: Why this is an inflection point for the Florida program Lane Kiffin as the top target and Marcus Freeman interest What the administration must do to get this hire right The Billy G interim decision over Luke How this coaching cycle will define Florida football's future #FloridaGators #GatorsBreakdown #GoGators #CFB #SECFootball #CollegeFootball JOIN Gators Breakdown Plus: https://gatorsbreakdownplus.com Get Florida Gators merch at Fanatics: https://fanatics.93n6tx.net/DVYxja Questions or comments? Send them to gatorsbreakdown@gmail.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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384: Billy Napier: Fired.

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 19, 2025 64:47

The news out of Gainesville is seismic. Billy Napier is out as Florida's head coach—so what's next for the Gators? In this episode, the Stadium and Gale crew breaks down why it happened, the buyout and timing, interim plans, recruiting fallout, and our full hot board of potential replacements. We also look at short- and long-term implications for UF, the SEC landscape, and what the program must get right this time.

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383: Game Day Eve: Napier's Last Stand?