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learn how to understand Korean TV news headlines by comprehending useful Korean phrases
Upper body strength & power work into a serious carry emom Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Upper body strength & muscle work get it. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
WATCH VIDEO FREE ON SPOTIFY: https://open.spotify.com/episode/5zQqmaRrFtc7QR820iYR0r?si=e0099ddbe99b4145 TorontoUnicorn takes you on a full walkthrough of Oasis Aqualounge, downtown Toronto's legal 19+ on-premise social club. This video is designed as a beginner-friendly guide, showing exactly what to expect on your first visit — from checking in and getting your membership sorted, to exploring every level of the venue and its many social spaces and amenities. You'll get a clear look at the club's layout, including the check-in process and wristband system, the locker room, the bars and lounges, the indoor hot tub, sauna and shower area, the ballroom and dungeon, and the upper-floor social and play spaces. We also tour the private room, the smoking patio, and the outdoor heated pool, plus talk about the welcoming, body-positive atmosphere that makes Oasis such a comfortable space for newcomers. Whether you're curious about sex-positive clubs or planning your first visit, this tour covers everything you need to know before you go. **CHAPTERS** 00:00 Welcome to Oasis Aqualounge 00:21 Check-in and wristbands 00:42 Main bar and lounge 00:54 Bathrooms 01:03 Indoor hot tub 01:08 Sauna 01:15 Shower area 01:21 Main floor 01:43 Locker room 01:56 Ballroom 02:02 Dungeon 02:24 Third floor 02:28 Upper-floor social and play spaces 02:33 Third-floor bar 02:46 Group room 03:07 Additional rooms 03:33 Shaggin' Wagon 03:40 Third-floor bathroom 03:46 Private room 04:09 Smoking patio 04:24 Outdoor heated pool 05:23 Body-positive atmosphere and closing Curious to learn more about sex-positive clubs? Check out more TorontoUnicorn club tours, vlogs, advice videos, and courses. Check out Oasis Aqualounge sex club's website: https://oasisaqualounge.com/ ***** Get 50% off a single course of your choice at Level Up with Toronto Unicorn using code: TUPODCAST50 ***** My new digital course website: https://levelupwithtorontounicorn.com/ Sign up for my email newsletters to stay up-to-date on TorontoUnicorn news, events and swinger lifestyle resources: https://torontounicorn.kit.com/torontounicornemails ALL social media links (YouTube, podcasts, fan page, etc): https://linktr.ee/TorontoUnicorn DIRECT link to my explicit TorontoUnicorn fan page: https://OnlyFans.com/TorontoUnicorn
1 - Upper Merion wins the battle against AI for now as they vote not to erect a data center in the township. 105 - Your calls. 110 - How bad has Kensington High School bungled their school building? 115 - Your calls. 120 - Is Luigi Mangione not a hero to CNN? More calls. 130 - Why is Linda Kerns joining us from Detroit? She is here today as we approach the 49 year anniversary of Elvis' death. Linda calls out Dom for the possible side question on Monday and what it should be. Does she do anything special to commemorate him? What is his best song according to Linda? 150 - Dom Giordano Presents: Progressive Women Gone Wild! 155 - Isn't it ironic where Kensington school kids will be attending in just a few weeks?
New class every Tuesday. 350+ full classes in the Unlimited Archive at JustGreatYoga.com
College days are the glory days for many of us. In this lesson, a group of Chinese coworkers reminisce about those bygone days. Episode link: https://www.chinesepod.com/2170
Hear ye! Hear ye! Our little tailor continues his quest And in tiny kingdom receives a test: Giants in the wood he has to slay But will our hero win the day? In this lesson, hear the second part of the story of “The Brave Little Tailor” and learn more Chinese fairy tale vocab! Also, be sure to check out the new task feature below, ChinesePod's newest way to enrich your learning experience along with fellow poddies! Episode link: https://www.chinesepod.com/2124
CoROM cast. Wilderness, Austere, Remote and Resource-limited Medicine.
In this episode of CoROM Conversations, Aebhric O'Kelly is joined by Dr Bill Vasios to discuss one of the most overlooked aspects of remote and austere medicine: the intelligent use of over-the-counter (OTC) medications in austere primary care.Rather than focusing on advanced equipment and prescription drugs, this discussion explores how a carefully selected collection of inexpensive, widely available medications can effectively manage many of the illnesses and injuries encountered in remote, expeditionary, humanitarian and disaster settings.The conversation emphasises clinical reasoning, careful assessment, conservative prescribing, and making the most of simple interventions before escalating treatment.Chapters00:00 – Introduction: Why OTC medicines matter in austere medicine02:22 – Traveller's diarrhoeaAssessmentOral rehydrationLoperamide: when to use it (and when not to)06:54 – Upper respiratory infectionsSymptom managementSalt-water garglesSaline spraysWhen antibiotics are unnecessary13:34 – Musculoskeletal injuriesPain packsDiclofenacPatient-guided pain managementRICE and the ice debate20:45 – Allergic rashes and contact dermatitisHydrocortisoneAntihistaminesOatmealRecognising anaphylaxis23:02 – Insect bites and stingsLocal treatmentCold therapyWhen to escalate care25:21 – DehydrationOral rehydrationIV versus oral fluidsHydration strategies in the field29:59 – Heat illnessCooling methodsField managementPreventing heat injury32:15 – Acid reflux in austere environmentsAntacidsGingerPractical management tips32:15 – Minor wound careIrrigationSoap versus antisepticsDakin's solutionAlcohol and iodinePractical wound cleaning36:45 – Building the ideal austere OTC medical kitEssential medicationsDressingsTapeWater purificationSplintsEpiPensMulti-use equipment41:20 – Final discussion, audience questions and wrap-upThe discussion concludes by assembling a practical remote medicine kit, including:Oral Rehydration Salts (ORS)ParacetamolIbuprofenLoperamideAntacidsOral antihistaminesHydrocortisone creamAntifungal creamTopical diclofenacZinc oxide tapeCohesive bandage (Coban/Vet Wrap)SalineSoapCling filmDressingsGauzeSunscreenWater purification equipmentSAM splintsEpiPenCompact medication organiser (FOLCA)Key Take-Home MessagesGood assessment should always precede medication.Oral hydration remains the cornerstone of treating dehydration.Many common conditions can be managed safely with inexpensive OTC medications.Every item carried should ideally have multiple uses.Patient education and involvement improve outcomes.Simple treatments, applied correctly, are often more effective than complicated ones.Featured SpeakersAebhric O'Kelly: Paramedic, educator and Rector of the College of Remote and Offshore Medicine.Dr Bill Vasios: Physician Associate, educator and specialist in austere and remote healthcare.Resources MentionedWorld Health Organization Oral Rehydration Solution (ORS)Wilderness Medical Society clinical practice guidelinesJoint Trauma System Clinical Practice Guidelines (JTS CPGs)Bristol Stool ChartOttawa Ankle RulesListen, Learn, DeployWhether you're preparing for an expedition, humanitarian mission, offshore deployment or remote clinic, this episode provides practical, evidence-informed advice on building a lightweight, effective medical kit capable of managing the conditions you are most likely to encounter.
Join Az and Luke as they run through 60 players and determine their Season Tier. How many do you agree with? Are there any they've got completely wrong? Drop a comment and leave us a review! -- Part 1 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Join Az and Luke as they run through 60 players and determine their Season Tier. How many do you agree with? Are there any they've got completely wrong? Drop a comment and leave us a review! -- Part 2 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Hear ye! Hear ye! Listen Chinese students and listen well To a classic tale we'd like to tell Of a brave little tailor with pluck and vim Who comes to us from the Brother's Grimm... In this lesson, learn how fairy tales are told in Chinese, complete with more formal language and the use of onomatopoeia. Episode link: https://www.chinesepod.com/2051
On a cold November morning in 1926, fifty-one miners descended into the Barnes-Hecker Mine near Ishpeming expecting another ordinary shift. Minutes later, a violent collapse sent water, mud, and thousands of tons of earth crashing into the underground workings.Only one miner escaped.Forty-one men were never recovered and remain buried beneath Michigan's Upper Peninsula nearly a century later.In this episode of End of the Road in Michigan, we reconstruct the disaster minute by minute using historical records, eyewitness accounts, and modern research. You'll hear the remarkable story of Wilfred Wills, the lone survivor who climbed nearly 800 feet to safety, the families who waited at the mine entrance for news that never came and the questions that still surround Michigan's deadliest mining disaster.This is more than the story of a mine collapse. It is a story about courage, sacrifice, and a community forever changed by one of the worst industrial tragedies in American history.Join us as we remember the fifty-one men of the Barnes-Hecker Mine.The End of the Road in Michigan is a production of Thumbwind Publications
Undersheriff Sylvia Moir has spent nearly four decades serving in law enforcement, leading six different agencies, serving as Chief of Police in three cities, and now helping lead the Marin County Sheriff's Office. But as she explains in this conversation, her career was never about chasing titles, it was about becoming exceptional at the role she was in, saying yes to opportunities, and giving more than she expected in return. In this episode of The Chief Exchange Podcast, Sylvia shares why she believes comparison is the thief of joy, how "give to gain" has shaped her leadership philosophy, and why resilience is built every time we choose to step into the arena despite uncertainty. We also discuss the difference between leaders with substance and "Hollow Bunnies," the importance of being tactically sound instead of simply hoping to go home safely, and why leaders must be willing to embrace discomfort if they truly want to grow. We also dive into Sylvia's journey through six law enforcement agencies, the power of self-reflection and micro-adjustments, why timing often matters more than having a perfectly scripted career plan, lessons from David Brooks' The Second Mountain, why police and fire collaboration has never been more important, and what she knows today that she wishes she had known when she first put on the badge.
In Chinese society, a society particularly concerned with family, being a gay man can be particularly hard. The pressure is so great for gay men to have wives and children, that many of them choose to say in the closet throughout their entire lives. And it's certainly difficult for them, it's also difficult for their wives. In this lesson, two women discuss this social issue. Episode link: https://www.chinesepod.com/2103
Get the 200+ Page Optimal Living Daily Workbook (PDF) - Free. Want to turn today's episode into an actionable plan? Join the Optimal Living Weekly newsletter and I'll send you our 200-page digital workbook immediately. It's packed with the best takeaways from the show, formatted for easy reading and implementation at home. Get your free PDF workbook here: https://oldpodcast.eo.page/join Discover all of the podcasts in our network, search for specific episodes, get the Optimal Living Daily workbook, and learn more at: OLDPodcast.com. Episode 3485: Christian Finn of Muscle Evo compares full body training with the upper lower split to settle which workout structure builds muscle best. He explains why total weekly training volume matters more than the split itself, and how your schedule, experience level, and recovery should drive the fitness routine you choose. Read along with the original article(s) here: https://muscleevo.net/upper-lower-split-vs-full-body/ Quotes to ponder: "For an identical training volume, which I'm defining here as the number of hard sets you do over the course of a week, the average lifter will see similar gains with both a full body and upper lower split." "With an upper/lower split, your energy and focus is distributed across fewer muscle groups, which usually makes for a higher quality workout." "A resistance training program that's optimal for muscle growth isn't optimal if you don't do it." Optimal Health Daily is a daily health and wellness podcast where we narrate the best articles on nutrition, fitness, weight loss, and healthy habits, read to you by a professional narrator so you can improve your health a little more every day. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Get the 200+ Page Optimal Living Daily Workbook (PDF) - Free. Want to turn today's episode into an actionable plan? Join the Optimal Living Weekly newsletter and I'll send you our 200-page digital workbook immediately. It's packed with the best takeaways from the show, formatted for easy reading and implementation at home. Get your free PDF workbook here: https://oldpodcast.eo.page/join Discover all of the podcasts in our network, search for specific episodes, get the Optimal Living Daily workbook, and learn more at: OLDPodcast.com. Episode 3485: Christian Finn of Muscle Evo compares full body training with the upper lower split to settle which workout structure builds muscle best. He explains why total weekly training volume matters more than the split itself, and how your schedule, experience level, and recovery should drive the fitness routine you choose. Read along with the original article(s) here: https://muscleevo.net/upper-lower-split-vs-full-body/ Quotes to ponder: "For an identical training volume, which I'm defining here as the number of hard sets you do over the course of a week, the average lifter will see similar gains with both a full body and upper lower split." "With an upper/lower split, your energy and focus is distributed across fewer muscle groups, which usually makes for a higher quality workout." "A resistance training program that's optimal for muscle growth isn't optimal if you don't do it." Optimal Health Daily is a daily health and wellness podcast where we narrate the best articles on nutrition, fitness, weight loss, and healthy habits, read to you by a professional narrator so you can improve your health a little more every day. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Audio, eng_t_norav_2026-07-31_lesson_mivne-haolamot-haelionim_n2_p1. Lesson_part :: Daily_lesson 2
The Structure of the Upper Spiritual Worlds
Video, eng_t_norav_2026-07-31_lesson_mivne-haolamot-haelionim_n2_p1. Lesson_part :: Daily_lesson 2
Audio, eng_t_norav_2026-07-31_lesson_mivne-haolamot-haelionim_n2_p1. Lesson_part :: Daily_lesson 2
Gerry Haracsi from the Spirit of Edmonton, Jay Milne, Zach Kubusch and Matt Iwanyk hangout getting set for the Elks hosting the Riders at Commonwealth Stadium on Saturday. Commonwealth will have the upper bowl open for the action, as the Elks look for a home and home sweep of the Riders. They boys also talk about the Bombers loss to the Lions and whatever else their conversation takes them to. The EST Hangout is presented by Sentinel Storage!
Video, eng_t_norav_2026-07-31_lesson_mivne-haolamot-haelionim_n2_p1. Lesson_part :: Daily_lesson 2
This week on America on the Road, Jack Nerad reports on his early drive of the all-new 2027 Kia Seltos X-Drive SX, and co-host Chris Teague evaluates the overlanding-focused 2026 Toyota 4Runner Trailhunter. The pair also cover a full slate of automotive news and present an exclusive conversation with Kia North America marketing chief Russell Wager. In the news and comment department, Jack and Chris offer new vehicle-theft prevention advice, detail the updated Toyota Corolla Hatchback, and discuss Bill Ford's calls for stronger U.S. competition with Chinese automakers. In addition, they dive into the leadership changes at Ram and Jeep, California's controversial and gerrymandered new EV rebate rules, and the redesigned Volkswagen Atlas.
On a cold November night in 1953, a U.S. Air Force jet vanished over Lake Superior while chasing an unidentified radar contact. The crew—Lt. Felix Moncla and Lt. Robert Wilson—were never found. In this episode, we dig into the facts behind the so-called Kinross Incident: radar records, Cold War tensions, conflicting official reports, and the moment two blips merged into one and disappeared.Was it a tragic accident, a Cold War misidentification—or something stranger? No speculation, just a sharp look at one of Michigan's most enduring aviation mysteries.The End of the Road in Michigan is a production of Thumbwind Publications
Cheers! This lesson is about drinking. In this lesson, three friends reminisce about how they first started drinking over a couple of drinks. Learn a bit about Chinese attitudes to alcohol as well as some useful drinking words. Episode link: https://www.chinesepod.com/2163
Audio, eng_t_norav_2026-07-24_lesson_mivne-haolamot-haelionim_n2_p1. Lesson_part :: Daily_lesson 2
Video, eng_t_norav_2026-07-24_lesson_mivne-haolamot-haelionim_n2_p1. Lesson_part :: Daily_lesson 2
Audio, eng_t_norav_2026-07-24_lesson_mivne-haolamot-haelionim_n2_p1. Lesson_part :: Daily_lesson 2
learn how to use Chinese conjunctions
learn how to understand a formal news broadcast
A special explainer episode.
Ep 123: In this week's AMA episode, I'm answering some of your most recent fitness questions—from whether you actually need to train your "lower core" differently, to exercises to do if you feel like you're quad-dominant and how and why alignment is so important pre workout + little clues that you might not be as aligned as you think.We also dive into one of my more recent favorite topics - how you can actually build strength and lose fat when life is busy. (Spoiler: it's less than you think.)Plus... I finally announce my brand new Busy Body program, designed specifically for women who want noticeable results without spending hours in the gym.Busy Body launches July 28th and includes: 5 workouts per week 30–45 minute sessions Structured body-part split Alignment drills and warm-up exercises included Progressive strength-focused programming Designed for busy women who want maximum results in minimal time If you've been waiting for a realistic program you can actually stick with, this is it.__________________________________________________________________________________________________Apply for Advanced Training and Nutrition with Chelsey & Dr Emily Dow HEREStart your 7 day FREE trial of my new app HERE!Programs:8 Week Summer Prep Planhttps://www.trainerize.me/profile/chelseyrosehealth/?planGUID=d48c6fbf116c4e8fb4d31f94b5376fa3Want to work in person with Chelsey?Join a semi-private class in LA here.Email info@chelseyrosehealth.com to inquire about one on one in person training.Shop the things i'm loving HEREFollow Chelsey on Instagram:@Chelseyrosehealth@StrengthtobuildFollow Chelsey on TikTok Here."Submit a question to the show"
In part 2 of the Worth Repeating podcast, storytellers share their stories on the theme “Standing on Business.” These stories feature the morals of produce distribution, an intense dedication to Brawny paper towels, and a surgery that solved a cat's anger issues.
After China's rapid urbanization, it's millions of city dwellers are longing to get back to the farm. And who can blame them? Fresh air, fresh food and peace and quiet. What's not to love about a getaway out in the country? In this lesson, learn all about it! Episode link: https://www.chinesepod.com/2159
Occultism was prominent in the highest echelon of the Third Reich, and mysterious figures from the shadows played outsized roles in the future of Germany. Upper management within the Nazi S.S. was reserved for those enlightened in the dark arts, with Aleister Crowley and Helena Blavatsky heavily influencing those in positions of great power. Expeditions were launched globally to explore places under Antarctica, mysterious locations in the Andes of Peru, and the entrance to the hidden kingdom of Shambala inside the hollow Earth in Tibet, all searching for confirmation of their superiority through the collection of ancient artifacts. What did they find in these magical places, and did the Nazis really lose the war?Guest: Matt Ehret | https://substack.com/@matthewehret---Macroaggressionswww.Macroaggressions.ioMerch StoreLink Tree Video ChannelsRumble | YouTube | BrighteonActivist PostNewsletter Sign UpAudiobooksHypocrazyThe Octopus of Global ControlSupport Our SponsorsReplace Your Mortgage: www.WipeOutYourMortgageNow.comGround Luxe Grounding MatsC60 Power | Promo Code: MACROChemical Free Body | Promo Code: MACROWise Wolf Gold & SilverLegalShield: www.DontGetPushedAround.comChristian Yordanov's Health ProgramThe Dollar VigilanteNesa's Hemp | Promo Code: MACROAugason Farms
Audio, eng_t_norav_2026-07-17_lesson_mivne-haolamot-haelionim_n2_p1. Lesson_part :: Daily_lesson 2
Video, eng_t_norav_2026-07-17_lesson_mivne-haolamot-haelionim_n2_p1. Lesson_part :: Daily_lesson 2
The Structure of the Upper Spiritual Worlds
Audio, eng_t_norav_2026-07-17_lesson_mivne-haolamot-haelionim_n2_p1. Lesson_part :: Daily_lesson 2
learn about talking about some impossibility or difficulty
This episode covers slipped upper femoral epiphysis.Notes: https://zerotofinals.com/paediatrics/ortho/sufe/Questions: https://members.zerotofinals.com/Books: https://zerotofinals.com/books/The audio in the episode was expertly edited by Harry Watchman.
For a wintertime getaway, bathing in a hot spring is a popular pastime for many Chinese, not only to relax but also for certain, often dubious, health benefits. Of course, that's not the only thing in doubt. How clean are these hot springs? And are they really hot springs or just glorified hot tubs? In this lesson, a group of coworkers plan an office getaway and reveal their doubts. Episode link: https://www.chinesepod.com/2150
A @Christadelphians Video: **YouTube Summary/Description**In this thought-provoking and wonderfully expositional study, Bible student Roger Lewis joins us to uncover the remarkable account of Achsah – Caleb's daughter. Why did she ask for a field? And what does her bold faith reveal about our own spiritual journey? Set against the backdrop of Judges chapter 1 – a chapter defined by Israel's failure to drive out the Canaanites – Achsah shines as an outstanding example of wholehearted devotion. Through careful, verse‑by‑verse analysis, we discover how Caleb's test for a suitor, Othniel's victory, and Achsah's determined request for “upper and nether springs” point to profound lessons about our promised inheritance. This is an insightful and revealing study that will challenge and inspire you to seek God's blessings with the same fearless, solution‑focused spirit.**Chapters**00:00 – Introduction & Setting the Context 04:00 – Why Ask Questions? The Heart of Bible Study 06:36 – Judah's Conquest & Caleb's Faithfulness 11:20 – Caleb's Test: Winning Achsah's Hand 15:53 – Othniel: The Worthy Suitor 20:40 – Achsah's Bold Request (Judges 1:14) 25:21 – Lighting Off the Donkey: Achsah's Determination 28:15 – “Give Me a Blessing” – The Parched Land 31:41 – The Upper and Nether Springs: God's Abundant Provision 33:30 – Three Qualities of the Faithful 37:28 – Turning Problems into Opportunities 38:44 – The Inheritance Fulfilled 41:34 – A Beautiful Typology: Caleb (the Father), Othniel (Christ), Achsah (the Bride) 48:31 – Conclusion: Embracing the Spirit of Achsah**Bible Verse Categories**
Are you looking for a reliable trail shoe that can handle technical terrain without feeling like a sponge? In today's video, we dive deep into the Dynafit Ultra 100 V3 to see how this German-engineered shoe performs after 50 miles on the trail.
In this episode the guys break down their brand new MAPS Upper Lower program — a classic four day bodybuilder split designed for people who want to shape, sculpt and build their body with more volume than a full body routine but without the intensity of programs like MAPS Aesthetic. They cover why the upper lower split is one of their personal favorite ways to train, how the three phase structure prevents plateaus, why the final phase ends with a five by five strength focus, and why they built separate men's and women's versions with different priority lifts. MAPS Upper Lower: https://mapsupperlower.com Code: LAUNCH for 40% off. Includes male and female programs, workout videos, exercise demos, coaching videos and live coaching with Cole. At home dumbbell version included. SPONSORS Olipop: https://drinkolipop.com/mindpump Buy any two cans of Olipop in store (any flavor, any retailer) and they will pay you back for one. New flavors: Blackberry Vanilla and Raspberry Sherbet. New can designs. LINKS Mind Pump Store: https://mindpumpstore.com Maps Fitness Products: https://mapsfitnessproducts.com Instagram: @mindpumpmedia 0:00 - Intro 2:08 - Introducing MAPS Upper Lower — what it is and who it's for 3:32 - Why the upper lower split produces great results and how it differs from full body 9:02 - Phase breakdown — rep schemes, set structures and why the program ends with five by five 16:20 - Why the final phase ends heavy instead of starting heavy like MAPS Anabolic 18:38 - Men's vs. women's versions — shoulder priority, glute priority and why they're different 20:10 - At home version and what equipment you need 21:11 - Live coaching with Cole
Most agents think a luxury designation will unlock luxury listings. It will not. At the upper end, trust, access, discretion, property presentation, and market intelligence are what win the business. In this episode, Tim and Julie Harris break down how real estate agents can move into luxury and ultra-luxury markets without pretending to be someone they are not. They explain why sellers care more about exposure and expertise than a certificate, why high-net-worth clients rely heavily on referrals, and how agents can become the trusted local source long before a property is ready to list. You will learn why marketing the property matters more than marketing yourself, how to become part of the community you want to serve, how an insider book or newsletter can build lasting authority, why privacy is essential, and how to create relationships with the professional centers of influence who already serve affluent clients. Tim and Julie also explain why AI may create more commission pressure for transactional agents while trusted, deeply embedded human expertise becomes even more valuable in the upper end of the real estate market. Free training: HarrisRealEstateDaily.comCoaching: PremierCoaching.comJoin eXp + Libertas: WhyLibertas.com/HarrisText Tim Direct: 512-758-0206Opinions are my own and not the views of eXp Realty.
With voters focused on prices and the economy, our Head of Public Policy Research Ariana Salvatore and U.S. Thematic Strategist Michelle Weaver discuss the consumer trends that could matter most heading into November's elections.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Ariana Salvatore: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Ariana Salvatore, Morgan Stanley's Head of Public Policy Research. Michelle Weaver: And I'm Michelle Weaver, Morgan Stanley's U.S. Thematic Strategist. Ariana Salvatore: Today, we'll be talking about the consumer and what recent data could imply for the midterm elections. It's Wednesday, July 1st at 10am in New York. Last week, Mike Zezas and I caught up on the consumer while he was down at our Consumer Captains Conference. This week, Michelle, I want to talk to you about what your data are saying and get into the implications of all of this for the midterm elections. So, maybe we start with the AlphaWise data. What are our surveys picking up when it comes to how the consumer feels about the outlook in the aggregate? Michelle Weaver: We run a monthly proprietary survey of around 2,000 U.S. consumers, and it's diversified by age, gender, and region, and we ask questions around sentiment, spending plans, and other special topics. Our survey recently showed a continued gradual recovery in consumer confidence in the U.S. economic outlook. We're not off to the races by any means, but we did see the net outlook score improve to -10 percent, up from -14 percent a month ago and a low of -18 percent two months ago, when concerns around oil prices were at their peak. Overall, more consumers feel negatively about the economy versus positively, hence that net score is negative. But we are seeing signs of improvement, so things are improving on a rate of change basis. Ariana Salvatore: That makes sense given the MOU that was signed between Iran and the U.S. Now, looking forward, what does the survey tell us about spending plans? Michelle Weaver: Broadly, consumer spending plans remain stable. They expect to spend more on essentials categories. This includes things like groceries, gas, and household items, while they're expecting to spend less on discretionary categories. We saw the weakest spending intentions within the consumer electronics category, and consumers are not likely to see much price relief in that category. Many consumer electronics makers are now taking their prices up because of the high price of memory chips that goes into those products. Ariana Salvatore: One of the most important components of the survey is the question that you ask on top areas of concern. What are you guys seeing there? Michelle Weaver: Inflation is still the number one concern for consumers, and we actually saw the percent of consumers citing it among their top concerns tick up again last month. So, now that's at 60 percent, up from 59 percent last month, and a low of 53 percent in January. People are also worried about the U.S. political environment. That was cited by 42 percent of consumers, up from about 39 percent last wave. Concern around geopolitical conflicts rounds out the top three, but that level's been pretty stable around 25 percent. But Ariana, can consumers expect any relief on prices from the policy front? Consumers got a nice boost from tax refunds. Is there anything else in the pipeline? Ariana Salvatore: So, we've gotten this question a lot into the midterm elections, and our view is basically that there are a number of obstacles in the way of something like another reconciliation package to give direct stimulus to consumers, whether that's procedural, whether it's the political perception. One of the most important is actually the deficit concerns, right? So, we don't expect something additional for the consumer through the legislative angle, aside from what we've already seen, like the Road to Housing Act. And that's also against a backdrop of what we've been seeing on the economic side and what your data is reflecting, which is that the consumer sentiment metrics are actually ticking up slightly from their lows. And that, of course, maps directly onto what our U.S. econ team has been saying. Their view is that the consumer story in 2026 has turned more neutral. Real consumption growth is still expected to decelerate to about 1.7 percent. That's below last year, but again, not falling off a cliff. The core dynamic is that the One Big Beautiful Bill Act had this fiscal boost from last year, tax refunds running about 17 percent higher year-over-year, but the oil shock basically mitigated that and essentially neutralized the fiscal impulse. But that's not hitting everybody equally. Goods spending tends to bear the brunt. Our econ team estimates that the oil shock takes 30 basis points off consumption entirely from goods rather than services. Low- and middle-income households are most exposed since energy makes up over 8 percent of spending for the bottom income quintile versus under 5 percent for the top. And that broadening out story from just the high-income consumer driving spending is probably going to be a little bit delayed just given the oil shock.But maybe let's drill in a little bit more on that income bifurcation. How does that manifest in your view across spending intentions? Michelle Weaver: Mm-hmm. Overall, short-term spending intentions – so spending plans over the next month – are net +20 percent this month. That's still above the historical average of around +16 percent, but it is down somewhat from 23 percent last month. And the divergence is really driven by income. Upper-income consumers remain meaningfully more optimistic, while lower-income households are still under stress. So, we're still seeing the K economy very much in place. And the economy and inflation are almost always top issues for voters. How are you expecting the dynamics we've been talking about to impact the midterms? Ariana Salvatore: So, data are showing an uptick, obviously, which should on net benefit Republicans all else equal, albeit off a low base. And that's because there are other data points to consider here. So, things like the generic ballot, things like historical precedent, things like the presidential favorability ratings – all of those things are painting a more constructive backdrop for Democrats heading into November. But also, to put a finer point on it, we're seeing the AlphaWise data that you're citing reflected across other surveys as well. So, we saw the UMich data from last week show the year ahead inflation outlook drop to 4.6 percent from 4.8 percent. And of course, that's a reflection of the expectation that gas prices are going to moderate into November too. Now, on that front, it's about rate of change, right? So, not the absolute level. But again, I would just remind our listeners that this is one factor in the context of many. So, net-net, we definitely still see a slight advantage for Democrats heading into November, especially when we drill into some of the trends that we've been seeing across the primaries. Michelle Weaver: And what are some of those trends you've been picking up from the primaries? Ariana Salvatore: So, the first thing I would say is that we're cautious to extrapolate too much from primaries to the general election, but really maybe two key points here. The first is turnout seems to be an early indicator in favor of Democrats. So, enthusiasm is up. We're seeing more participation and more engagement relative to prior elections. The second point I would make is that the primaries have been showing a mixed bag in terms of candidates for November. So, in some states like New York and Colorado, you saw more progressive candidates win their races. And all else equal, that could translate to more of what we call a fragile instead of a cohesive majority come November. So, think more political noise around fiscal deadlines, things like appropriations and the debt ceiling. But of course, we still have less than 50 percent of the primaries, so plenty to watch heading into the fall. Michelle, thanks for taking the time to talk. Michelle Weaver: Thanks for having me. Ariana Salvatore: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.
Preview for Later Today: Scott Winship refutes claims of worsening income inequality, suggesting the middle class is actually ascending to the upper-middle class. He analyzes wealth distribution, noting that growth among working-age Americans is more balanced than generally reported.JULY 1930
Check out Marek Health at https://marekhealth.com/syatt and get 10% OFF your first order using code: SYATTIn this episode of The Jordan Syatt Podcast, I shoot the breeze and answer questions from listeners with my podcast producer, Tony, and we discuss:- How to stop binge eating- How to workout so you look like you lift- Getting lean vs building strength and muscle- Explosive training vs momentum- Kettlebell swings, push presses, and kipping pull ups- Upper body plyometrics and bone density- Reframing around success and failure- An update on my new dog- Toilet bowl drama- And more...Do you have any questions you want us to discuss on the podcast? Give Tony a follow and shoot him a DM on Instagram - @tone_reverie - https://www.instagram.com/tone_reverie/ I hope you enjoy this episode and, if you do, please leave a review on iTunes (huge thank you to everyone who has written one so far).Finally, if you've been thinking about joining The Inner Circle but haven't yet... we have hundreds of home and bodyweight workouts for you and you can get them all: https://www.sfinnercircle.com/