Podcasts about jgbs

APAC stocks were marginally higher as the region took impetus from the rebound stateside; S&P 500 and Dow notched six-day win streaksEuropean equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 future up 0.5% after the cash market closed flat on Monday.FX markets are broadly steady. AUD lags after the RBA delivered a 25bps cut and cut its inflation outlook.US President Trump stated that Russia and Ukraine are to immediately begin negotiations on a ceasefire and an end to the war.US House Speaker Johnson said they are almost there on the tax bill and he is very confident they will get it done.Looking ahead, highlights include German Producer Prices, Canadian Inflation, EZ Consumer Confidence, NZ Trade, G7 Finance Ministers Meeting, RBA's Bullock, BoE's Pill, ECB's Cipollone, Nagel, Fed's Bostic, Barkin, Collins, Musalem, Kugler, Daly & Hammack, Supply from Germany.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

European bourses are modestly firmer whilst US equity futures sit in negative territory.USD remains out of favour, AUD weighed on after the RBA delivered a 25bps cut (as expected) and amid discussion of a 50bps cut.JGBs briefly hit by a poor auction, fixed recovery continues into numerous Fed speakers.Crude choppy on mixed geopolitics regarding Russia/Ukraine and Iranian nuclear talks.Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei said "I don't think nuclear talks with the US will be successful", via Mehr news.Looking ahead, Canadian Inflation, NZ Trade, G7 Finance Ministers Meeting, ECB's Cipollone, Nagel, Fed's Bostic, Barkin, Collins, Musalem, Kugler, Daly & Hammack. Earnings from Home Depot & Bilibili.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Europe on holiday, US equity futures entirely in the green with sentiment boosted after strong META/MSFT results.DXY is a little firmer ahead of US data, JPY hit post-BoJ/Ueda.JGBs lead post BoJ/Ueda, USTs await Tier 1 data points.Crude continues to decline, XAU hit by the USD while base peers welcome the US tone post-Mag7.Looking ahead, US Challenger Layoffs, Jobless Claims & ISM Manufacturing.Earnings from Amazon, Apple, Riot Platforms, Reddit, Airbnb, Eli Lilly, Roblox, CVS, MasterCard, McDonald's.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Anyone looking to by gold really needs to contact today's video sponsor, our friends over at DefytheGrid, using the link below:https://defythegrid.com/c/eurodollaruniversity/Make sure you use Coupon Code: eurodollaruniversityA big move in Japan today, with yields dropping and the yen rising. Both were matched by some truly grim developments and warnings from around the world, everything from AI to the Bank of Canada's extreme case and then some truly grim results in New York. Or, exactly what JGBs and JPY are signaling themselves. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Nvidia Curbs and ASML Warning Spur Global Tech-Stock Routhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-16/nvidia-supplier-stocks-drop-on-latest-china-export-restrictionsWTO April 2025 Global Trade Outlookhttps://www.wto.org/english/res_e/booksp_e/trade_outlook25_e.pdfFRBNY April 2025 Business Leaders Survey https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/Survey/business_leaders/2025/2025_04blsreport.pdf?sc_lang=en&hash=F63E9C1D24FCF84A22217C915C713718https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Fed Chair Powell reaffirmed a wait-and-see approach and suggested incredibly high uncertaintyUS President Trump said "Big Progress!" was made with Japan on tradeAPAC shrugged off the negative Wall St. handover, but gains were capped with drivers limitedDXY found reprieve from recent pressure but remains below 100.00, USD/JPY hit a seven-month low but has since rebounded back above 142.00USTs & JGBs soft while Bunds lacked firm direction; French supply aheadCrude extended on Wednesday's strength, XAU pulled back from fresh record highs, base metals choppyLooking ahead, highlights include German Producer Prices, US Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Index, ECB & CBRT Policy Announcements, Speakers including ECB President Lagarde, Fed's Barr & Williams, Supply from France. Earnings from TSMC, UnitedHealth, American Express, DR Horton, Netflix, Sainsbury's, Rentokil & L'OrealClick for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US bourses finished mixed with futures thereafter pressured after NVIDIA flagged 5.5bln of charges.White House said over 15 trade deal proposals are being considered and some could be announced soon.DXY gave back some of Tuesday's strength, EUR/USD back above 1.13 and Cable above 1.3250 into UK CPI.USTs paused for breath after gains sparked by Treasury officials, Bunds rebounded and JGBs retested 141.00Crude benchmarks lackluster, XAU hit another record high while base peers followed the risk tone lowerLooking ahead, highlights include UK CPI, US Retail Sales, NZ CPI, BoC Policy Announcement, Speakers including Fed's Powell, Cook, Hammack, Logan & Schmid, BoC's Macklem & Rogers, Supply from Germany & US.Earnings from Heineken, US Bancorp, Abbott, Progressive, Travelers, Prologis, Autliv, Citizens, First Horizon, Alcoa, Barratt Redrow, Moncler, Brunello Cucinelli & Lindt.Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Trump lifted the tariff on China to 125% with immediate effect, announced a 90-day pause & cut reciprocals to 10% for nations that asked for talks.Sparked significant risk on with US bourses closing higher by around 10%, APAC stocks surged & European futures are markedly higher.DXY gave back Wednesday's strength, FOMC Minutes a non-event; EUR higher but shy of 1.10, USD/JPY faded from highs above 148.00.USTs rebound from lows, aided by a strong 10yr tap. Bunds & JGBs hit on the 90-day pause.Crude followed the broader risk tone, metals surge.Looking ahead, highlights include Norwegian & US CPI, US Jobless Claims, Chinese M2 Money Supply, Speakers including RBA's Bullock, BoE's Breeden, Fed's Logan, Bowman, Schmid, Goolsbee & Harker, SNB's Tschudin & Moser, Supply from Spain & US.Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump is said to be pushing senior advisers to go bigger on tariff policy as they prepare for ‘Liberation Day' on April 2nd; reportedly revived the idea of a flat universal tariff single rate on most imports.European bourses and US futures in the red given the above and into month & quarter end, Euro Stoxx 50 -1.5%, ES -1.0%; NQ -1.3% with NVDA pressured.DXY has been on either side of the unchanged mark throughout the morning, EUR and GBP flat/slightly softer while USD/JPY hit a 148.71 low as the Nikkei 225 entered correction territory.Fixed benchmarks bid on the broad risk tone, German State CPIs sparked a fleeing move lower into the mainland figure, JGBs slipped as the BoJ cut its bond purchase amounts.Crude firmer as geopolitical tensions outweigh the macro tone following reports around Trump on Iran, XAU at a fresh record high, base metals dented.US President Trump threatened to bomb Iran if a nuclear deal can't be reached, while he also warned of secondary tariffs on Russian oil.Looking ahead, highlights include US Chicago PMI & Trump's executive orders.Note: UK clocks changed from GMT to BST on Sunday which means the London to New York time gap returned to five hours.Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Stocks gain with sentiment lifted after a strong Chinese session overnight and after the recent market turmoil.USD mixed vs. peers, GBP soft post-GDP, JPY weighed on by Rengo data, which showed average wage hike less than demands.Gilts gap higher on soft growth data while JGBs lift on Rengo.Spot gold makes a fresh record high above USD 3,000/oz; crude oil and base metals benefit from the risk tone.Looking ahead, US UoM Survey, Trump executive orders, Fitch to review France; US Government Funding Expires.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

European bourses grind higher, US futures modestly in the green.USD marginally firmer, JPY softer and GBP knocked lower by disappointing retail sales.JGBs lag slightly on further BoJ reports, Gilts gapped higher on Retail Sales.Mixed trade in the base metal complex but crude stays firm.Looking ahead, US Industrial Production, CBO Budget and Economic Outlook, Comments from ECB's Cipollone, Earnings from SLB, Fastenal, Truist, State Street & Citizens.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Stocks hold modest gains, FTSE 100 outperforms post-CPI; US bank earnings due.DXY lower ahead of US CPI, GBP resilient in the wake of soft inflation metrics, JPY leads.Gilts inflated by CPI, JGBs dented by Ueda & USTs await CPI.Choppy trade in crude while precious metals tilt higher and base metals trade mixed.Looking ahead, US CPI, OPEC MOMR, Fed Beige Book, Speakers including BoE's Taylor, Fed's Barkin, Kashkari, Williams & Goolsbee. Earnings from JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, BlackRock, Citi, Wells Fargo, Bank of New York Mellon.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

European stocks tumble post-FOMC, MU -15% pre-market weighing on chip peers in Europe; US futures attempting to recoup yesterday's losses.USD gives back some of yesterday's post-FOMC gains, JPY hit after BoJ Governor Ueda's press conference.US yield curve steepens, JGBs outperform post-Ueda, Gilts lag pre-BoE.Crude lifts incrementally off Wednesday's lows, XAU fares better as the USD pauses for breath.Looking ahead, US Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Index, NZ Trade Balance, Japanese CPI, BoE, CNB, Banxico Policy Announcements, Earnings from Accenture, Cintas, Conagra Brands, Nike, FedEx, BlackBerry.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

APAC stocks mostly gained following the rally stateside where the S&P 500 and the Dow surged to fresh record highs as the dust settled after the Fed over-delivered in its first rate cut in four years and US data topped forecasts.BoJ kept its short-term policy rate unchanged at 0.25%, as expected with the decision made by unanimous vote, with no fireworks; USD/JPY was choppy before heading marginally lower, and 10-year JGBs were eventually subdued.PBoC maintained LPRs at their current levels as expected; Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed whilst the Yuan was firmer overnight despite reports of Chinese major state-owned banks seen buying dollars.European equity futures are indicative of a softer cash open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.4% after the cash market closed higher by 2.2% on Thursday.Looking ahead, highlights include UK Retail Sales, Canadian Producer Prices, Retail Sales, EZ Consumer Confidence, Quad Witching, Comments from Norges Bank's Longva & Bache, BoE's Mann, BoC's Macklem, ECB's Lagarde, Fed's Harker & Bowman.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded higher across the board despite a lack of fresh catalysts following a mixed lead from Wall Street, and ahead of US PCE and the US long weekend.DXY traded within a very narrow range, EUR and GBP were uneventful, while JPY held a firmer bias after the Tokyo CPI surprisingly ticked higher.Fixed income futures diverged slightly overnight, with USTs flat ahead of PCE, Bunds faded gains pre-EZ CPI, and JGBs softer after Tokyo CPI.European equity futures are indicative of a softer open, with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.2% after cash closed +1.1% on Thursday.Looking ahead, highlights include German Trade, Retail Sales, French CPI, Spanish Retail Sales, EZ CPI, Italian CPI, US PCE, and ECB's Schnabel.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

S&P futures are pointing to a flat open today ahead of the July CPI data. Asian markets finished Wednesday trading mix, and European equity markets continue to climb in early trades. In today's macro news, Japan Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has announced that he will not run in the upcoming LDP presidential election, effectively stepping down as PM once a new leader is chosen. Kishida's withdrawal introduces market uncertainty, with no clear successor favored by markets. While most contenders support monetary policy normalization, the implications for fiscal policy and investor participation initiatives, such as the NISA program, remain uncertain. Analysts expect equities to be most affected, with yen direction influenced by external factors and JGBs by supply-demand conditions.Companies Mentioned: Honeywell, Allstate, Alphabet, Kellanova, Southwest Airlines

The Finance Ministry said Wednesday the initial coupon on 10-year floating-rate Japanese government bonds for individual investors will rise to the highest level since January 2012.

APAC stocks initially subdued before benefitting from the latest China property support measuresDXY bid with peers generally contained aside from slight JPY pressure, Yuan benefits from the property support despite soft/mixed data beforehandFixed benchmarks uneventful ex-JGBs which outperformed as the BoJ maintained the Rinban purchase amountCommodities contained with specifics light, modest support on China property caveated by mixed signals from the economyECB's Schnabel says a June cut may be appropriate but the current data does not seem to warrant a rate cut in JulyLooking ahead, highlights include EZ CPI (F), Comments from ECB's de Guindos, BoE's Mann, Fed's Waller & Daly, Earnings from Engie & Scor.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

BoJ maintained policy settings & forward guidance, Ueda said little chance for BoJ to say policy will change in JanuaryDovish reaction in fixed income with JGBs leading and global yields lower, USD/JPY testing 145.00 at bestEuropean bourses & US futures are firmer, ES remains sub-4800 and Monday's 4802.25 bestDXY pivoting 102.50 with Antipodeans once again outperforming with strength also in EUR & GBPCrude & European energy benchmarks softer on a breather from Red Sea tensions, but crude has since lifted on Euronav remarksLooking ahead, highlights include US Building Permits/Housing Starts, Canadian CPI, Japanese Trade Balance, NBH Announcement, Fed's Bostic, Goolsbee; BoE's Breeden.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Heading into the end of the year, questions remain around Treasury yields and the neutral interest rate.----- Transcript -----Seth Carpenter: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Chief Global Economist. Guneet Dhingra: And I'm Guneet Dhingra, Morgan Stanley's Head of U.S. Trade Strategies. Seth Carpenter: And today on the podcast, we'll be discussing our updated economic and rates outlook for the rest of the year and into 2024. It's Monday, September 11th, at 10 a.m. in New York. Seth Carpenter: All right, Guneet. We are now about a week into September and we can take stock of what we've learned over the summer. For macroeconomists like me we care about growth, inflation, monetary policy, and I'll say this summer spending indicators came in strong, inflation continued to fall, and we had Jackson Hole, the sort of nerd temple for monetary policy. And I have to say we didn't learn quite as much as I hoped, but we kind of know the Fed has done hiking, or at least very close. But I have to say, in your domain, the Treasury yield is trading roughly 4.25%. On the last day of June, when summer began, it was around 380. Can we just attribute the higher rate to thin liquidity and move on? Guneet Dhingra: You're right Seth, it's not just thin liquidity, but the conditions of August definitely played a meaningful part in sending yields higher. Typically, as investors look to go away for August, positive carry trades are the easiest trades to have on, and playing for higher yields has been positive carry. Which is why I think in August this year and even the last year, yields tended to go higher. But beyond August, seasonality, which might be the simplest explanation, investors have 4 major narratives out there that R-star, the so-called neutral rate of interest has increased, the end of yield curve control in Japan, more Treasury supply and more recently at the end of the summer, and increased supply of corporate debt. Guneet Dhingra: So before we go there Seth, you mentioned Jackson Hole at the end of the summer. The idea that some investors have that because the economy has held up so well, despite the Fed's rate hikes, that the underlying neutral rate or R-star must be higher and so will have higher interest rates not just now, but into the future. What is your take on this whole R* debate and what have you learned from Jackson Hole? Seth Carpenter: Absolutely. So I have to say Jackson Hole was very interesting, but this time there were a lot of very academic minded papers there that were very important to talk about. I can see how they can spur debate, but I'm not sure they provide that much that's actionable in the near term for the Fed or even for markets. And when it comes specifically to R-star, color me a bit skeptical and I say that for a few reasons. One, alternate explanations just abound. We could have got stronger spending because there's more residual impetus from the fiscal policy that's already in the pipeline. And in particular, if we look at where we missed our GDP forecast, a really big part of that was nonresidential structures investment. So that could go a long way to explain it. Second, if R-star really was higher, I think that would mean that the Fed would have to raise the peak rate during this hiking cycle even higher, not just rates off in the future. And so what does that mean? That means that I at least would have expected a parallel shift higher in rates, not just along in selling off. And in fact, you might even see a steeper inversion of the curve as the rate goes higher in the near term, but then has to come down later. So take all of that together, and I guess I'm just really not convinced that there's enough evidence to conclude that R-star is higher. Guneet Dhingra: Yeah, makes a lot of sense, Seth. And listening to you about the growth and economic picture, I'm even more convinced that this R-star story doesn't quite hold water. Seth Carpenter: All right, so then there is the yield curve control story. And I will say, at the risk of patting myself on the back, our Japan team had been expecting a tweak to yield curve control in Japan, and we got it. But I know that you're skeptical that that's really the story here. Why do you push back? Guneet Dhingra: Yeah, I think one of the ways you can actually verify the impact of the yield curve control on the U.S Treasury market, is just break down the price action into different time zones. And what you saw is in the Tokyo time zone, where you would expect a lot of the so-called repatriation flows to play out, we haven't really seen much of a movement in U.S Treasury yields ever since the YCC change announcement. So I would say based on the time zone analysis, it doesn't look like YCC changes are really impacting Treasury yields. Seth Carpenter: Okay Guneet, I get it. So it wasn't from trading happening in Tokyo, but these sort of markets are global. There could have been traders in London, traders in New York who were reacting to the change in yield curve control and selling their JGBs. And then the traders in Tokyo wake up and go, oh, nothing to do here. What do you make of that story? Why couldn't that be the explanation that it really was yield curve control? Guneet Dhingra: So if you break it down in the London Time Zone, it actually turns out that Treasury yields have actually gone lower since the YCC announcement in the London Time Zone. To my mind, that speaks to the idea that maybe investors in those time zones are more focused on the weakness in the European economy than any changes to YCC. And speaking of the New York time zone, yes, it is true that the bulk of the sell off in Treasury yields has happened in the New York time zone. But keep in mind, if hedge funds are the only major player selling yields on the back of the YCC, and it's not quite backed up by repatriation flows, it's probably not likely going to be sustainable. Seth Carpenter: Then let's turn to the last one, increased supply of debt, both Treasury debt and corporate debt. So we know that the U.S deficit is high, Issuance will have to continue for some time. We've heard all of the stories about corporates starting to stir in capital markets and issue more. Shouldn't it be logical that if demand for assets is roughly unchanged but the supply goes up, the price will fall, which should lead to a sell off in rates? What do you make of that story? Guneet Dhingra: Yeah, the story is pretty logical, but I don't think it still answers the question. If supply was really the main driver, I would expect to see more of a substantial tightening in so-called swap spreads, which is the gap between Treasury yields and the equivalent swap rates. We haven't really seen much of a tightening in swap spreads, which really undercuts the idea that Treasury supply is already on investors minds. Seth Carpenter: All right. So I think we've gone through a bunch of the narratives, pushd back on a lot of them, maybe debunked them a little bit. I guess the one other question I would have for you is, could it be that markets are waking up to the higher for longer narrative? The Fed's been trying to say that they're going to keep interest rates as high as they need to for as long as they need to in order to bring inflation back to target. Maybe the market's putting more probability on that sort of outcome. Guneet Dhingra: Just to pretend I'm smarter than the economists, I will use the word bear steepening of the curve here. So in my view, the recent bear steepening of the 2s/10s curve is a combination of two things. Number one, there has been very little change in the market implied Fed funds path through the end of 2024. And number two, the back end has moved higher with some combination of August seasonality and belief around a higher R-star. So I would say it is less about the quote unquote higher for longer expectation, but more about the idea that the Fed fund eventually settles at a higher level in the medium term. Seth Carpenter: Okay. I guess that's fair. Let's take a step back, though, and take stock of what it is that we've learned. You and I and our colleagues have published work recently, basically saying, here's the mid-year outlook we published in May, here are the data that we got over the course of the summer. What did we get right and what did we get wrong? I econ, I'd say we got right the continued and pretty rapid fall in inflation in the U.S. and the slowing in the labor market, and I'm pretty proud of that. But boy, we got wrong just how strong the U.S. economy would be. And in very stark contrast, we missed just how weak the Chinese economy would be. Boy, we really thought that there'd be a stronger, more vigorous policy response that would get better traction and we'd see a bigger cyclical rebound. What are your key takeaways from what you and your colleagues in strategy have learned over the summer? Guneet Dhingra: To start with some numbers, we had ten year yields ending at 3.5% by the end of 2023. Currently there are 4.25%. We think we missed two things. First, the market focuses on upside and growth rather than the cooling of inflation. And number two, we missed the investors and how they're behaving, once bitten twice shy, about adding duration until every data point cools down convincingly. Having said that, your forecast is for more cooling and growth and inflation through the year. And so we have only marginally raised our ten year forecast to 3.65% by the end of this year. Seth Carpenter: I have to say, Guneet, every time I talk to you, I learn something new. So thank you for taking the time to talk. Guneet Dhingra: Great speaking with you, Seth. Seth Carpenter: And thanks to the listeners for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

European bourses & US futures are firmer in a continuation of the APAC handover where action was driven by Chinese inflationTesla +5.5% in pre-market trade following action by Morgan StanleyUSD pressured by both the JPY & Yuan following Ueda and midpoint/CPI respectivelyCore fixed benchmarks remain depressed but are off worst as JGBs regroup from BoJ-inspired lowsCrude continues to pullback despite bullish catalysts while metals benefit from China and the softer USDLooking ahead, highlights include NY Fed SCE. Supply from the US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

European bourses are mixed/steady around the unchanged mark, with US futures following suitAction which follows mostly firmer APAC trade given Wall St. momentum, Chinese stimulus and despite mixed PMIsDXY is on the front-foot despite some month-end model predictions; JPY standout laggard while Antipodeans outperformFixed income remains pressured though JGBs have steadied after unscheduled 5-10yr purchases, EGBs unreactive to Flash dataCrude benchmarks continue to benefit from the risk tone/Chinese stimulus, while metals are more mixed given the USDs influenceLooking ahead, highlights include US Chicago PMI; Fed's Goolsbee, SLOOS & Treasury Estimates.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Wall Street closed higher on Friday and notched out gains across the key indices for the week as investors welcomed favourable inflation data in the form of the personal consumption expenditures price index. The data is a key driver of the Fed's interest rate decisions and gained just 0.2% month-on-month, the same reading as the prior month and well below the anticipated 4.2% rise.Stronger than expected GDP in the US and a better-than-expected earnings season so far in the US has analysts' believing markets could jump to new highs. On Friday, the Dow Jones rose 0.50%, the S&P500 added 0.99% and the Nasdaq lifted 1.9%.Proctor & Gamble shares rose 3% on Friday after the company posted earnings and revenue that beat analysts' expectations for the most recent quarter, while Intel jumped 6.6% on Friday as investors welcomed the tech company's return to profitability.Over in Europe, markets closed mixed as Germany's economic growth stagnated in the second quarter indicating the economy is stuck between stagflation and a recession. The STOXX600 fell 0.2% on Friday while Germany's DAX rose 0.4%, the French CAC added 0.15% and, in the UK, the FTSE100 lifted 0.02%.The bank of Japan maintained its negative interest rate on Friday but announced it would allow “greater flexibility” in its targeted range for 10-year Japanese government bond yields which some analysts are taking as a sign of potential policy shift to come. The strict yield curve policy will now allow + and - 0.5% movements and the BoJ will now offer to purchase 10-year JGBs at 1% through fixed rate operations.Locally on Friday the key index fell 0.7% driven by the US sell-off on Thursday, however for the week the ASX200 posted a 1.23% gain. The REIT sector took the biggest hit locally on Friday while consumer discretionary stocks also fell 0.88% following the release of retail sales data for June. The data showed the full impact the RBA interest rate hikes are having on consumer spend with the reading coming in at a decline of 0.8% for the month of June, down from a 0.8% rise in May and below what consensus was expecting of a flat reading on the prior month.What to watch today:Ahead of the local trading session here in Australia, the SPI futures are anticipating the local index to open the first trading session of the new week up 0.26%.On the commodities front this morning, oil is trading 0.11% lower at US$80.49/barrel, gold is up 0.76% at US$1959.85/ounce, iron ore is down 0.87% at US$114.50/tonne.AU$1.00 is buying US$0.67, 93.77 Japanese Yen, 51.63 British Pence and NZ$1.08.Trading Ideas:Bell Potter has increased the 12-month price target on Capricorn Metals (ASX:CMM) to $5.19 from $4.95 and maintain a buy rating on the gold exploration and development company following the release of the company's June quarter update including Capricorn Metals producing 120,014 ounces of gold at its Karlawinda Gold Project over FY23 at all-in-sustaining-costs of $1208/ounce which fell slightly short of production expectations by Bell Potter analysts' however the AISC were below BP expectations. The company also boasts some of the lowest costs in the sector and consistently generates strong cash margins.And Trading Central has identified a bearish signal on Regis Resources (ASX:RRL) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 72-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may fall from the close of $1.71 to the range of $1.32 to $1.42 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

BoJ sources around YCC spark marked dovish reaction in JPY and JGBs, which has filtered through to broader assetsDXY back above 101.00 with USD/JPY testing 142.00; action which eroded GBP's retail-driven upsideEuropean/US equity benchmarks relatively contained, Tech hit by SAP while NQ benefits from yield actionJGB upside briefly lifts peers with EGBs/USTs struggling for direction while Gilts slip on dataCrude largely resilient to the USD's upside with base metals underpinned on Chinese stimulus, XAU pressuredLooking ahead, highlights include Canadian Retail Sales. Earnings from American Express & SchlumbergerRead the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

European bourses & US futures are firmer despite a distinct lack of fresh drivers ahead of the week's key eventsDXY wanes with Antipodeans firmer, EUR rebounding towards 1.08 and GBP bid post-HaskelGilts underperform generally subdued core benchmarks following BoE remarks while BTPs and JGBs buck the bearish trendCrude and base metals continue to slip with spot gold benefits from the softer USDChina's Foreign Ministry says they have no information on a Blinken visitLooking ahead, highlights include US NY Fed SCE & supply from the US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

The Nikkei Average and Dollar/Yen keep climbing higher. Meanwhile, Yen rate and Yen cross-currency basis remain little changed. Now that the G7 Summit in Hiroshima is over, speculation about whether Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will disband the Lower House and call for elections is growing. In today's episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido gives his view on triggers in the wake of the G7 Summit in Hiroshima as well as his analysis of the latest April JSDA data. He also shares his outlook for spot Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis. Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

Tohru joins us to discuss the end of YCC, and where we see fair value for the JGB yield. Rising JGB yields will likely not translate into Yen strength this time around, given the wide short-term yield gap and the trade deficit.  But a weak yen should still be a positive for stocks.   Speakers: Thomas Salopek, Head of Global Cross Asset Strategy Tohru Sasaki, Head of Japan Macro Research   This podcast was recorded on 5 May 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4391169-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4399337-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.  

JGBs have sold-off while changes to USDJPY and JPY basis have been relatively limited. The Bank of Japan's March Tankan survey showed business sentiment worsened only slightly, as the jitters over the US and European banking sectors have not yet spread to Tokyo. However, the Nikkei Average is up only slightly as foreign investors unload Japan shares simply because they are a risk asset. Cross boarder bond flows have been massive in the Tokyo market. In today's episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido review JPY assets and securities flows in March and also looks ahead to triggers for April. He also shares his views on spot USDJPY, Yen rates, and Yen basis. Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

Alibaba Holdings announces their restructuring into six entities, triggering a surge in Chinese tech shares, and global indices. Weston Nakamura gives his initial takeaways of this monumental surprise development, and the potential implications reaching far beyond China. In addition, Weston discusses the upcoming China PMI release on Friday as a potential market moving catalyst, citing the prior month's reading and subsequent cross-asset market reaction that followed. He also shows why the yuan's price action matters to global markets. Finally, Weston touches on the yen and its price action heading into Japan fiscal year-end later this week, as well as his read on no-trade JGBs potentially signaling the end of the recent rate volatility. -- Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9U Follow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vm Follow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespread Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_  Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this debut episode of Market Depth, Tokyo- based Weston Nakamura takes a deep dive look into Haruhiko Kuroda's decade-long tenure as the Governor of the Bank of Japan, who leaves his post as the most consequential major central banker in the modern era.  Governor Kuroda was appointed (then re-appointed for a rare second term) by Prime Minister Abe in 2013, specifically to carry out radically aggressive monetary easing measures- for which Kuroda delivered upon from his very first policy meeting with QQE. A decade later, Kuroda certainly has delivered- perhaps even overdelivered on the “easing without backing down” promise by conducting the world's largest and now increasingly controversial experiment in monetary policy easing: yield curve control. As Kuroda now hands the keys over to a new governor, the Bank of Japan now owns more than half of the Japanese government bond market, and is capping long term yields at explicit levels by policy, battling market forces that are pushing for a higher yielding environment against a backdrop of inflation at 40 year highs. Despite a 4% CPI reading in Japan, Governor Kuroda's only regret is that he “was unable to achieve the 2% inflation goal.” Whether Kuroda had achieved his objectives or not is up for debate. The question is - in the process of attempting to pull Japan out of a deflationary spiral, did Governor Kuroda create a meteoric 500 trillion yen bubble in JGBs? And what happens when he is no longer there to keep the largest bubble in history inflated? -- Follow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespread Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_  Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

European bourses are mixed/flat, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.1%, as the initial pressure from hot French/Spanish inflation readings has eased through the morning.US futures in-fitting with the above ahead of Fed speak; AAPL lower on Foxlink, CVX higher post-buyback update.DXY is firmer, but is closer to the session trough, while EUR has faded initial CPI-induced upside, GBP outperforms & JPY lags.Debt futures fade with Bunds at a fresh cycle low and curves re-steepening, JGBs outperform following a 2yr sale and dovish BoJ nominee testimony.Crude is firmer and seemingly continues to consolidate while metals generally are mixed given the above.Looking ahead, highlights include Canadian GDP, US Chicago PMI, Consumer Confidence, Fed Discount Rate Minutes, International Energy Week (1/3), Speeches from BoE's Pill & Fed's Goolsbee. Earnings from Target & HP.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Hosts: Ansel Lindner and Christian Keroles Fed Watch is a macro podcast with a clear contrarian thesis of a deflationary breakdown of the financial system leading to bitcoin adoption. We question narratives and schools of thought, and try to form new understanding. Each episode we use current events to question mainstream and bitcoin narratives across the globe, with an emphasis on central banks and currencies. (Find links below or, along with charts, at bitcoinandmarkets.com/fed129) In this episode, CK has returned from his trip to India and joins us for a big day of new economic data from the US. On deck for this episode is a quick discussion about the US debt ceiling and then we get into the main topic in my opinion, US GDP numbers for Q4 2022 and the whole year. US real GDP in Q4 rose at an annual rate of 2.9%. That is a pretty significant number for people expecting recession any day now. For the year of 2022, real GDP increased by 2.1% These numbers are in-line with my predictions of returning to a post-GFC (Great Financial Crisis) normal of low growth and low inflation. The last topic of today's episode is all about Japan's new monetary bazooka, an amendment to “Principle Terms and Conditions for Funds-Supplying Operations against Pooled-Capital.” That's just a long label for a program where the Bank of Japan (BOJ) lends money to banks to buy government bonds so the central bank doesn't have to buy them directly. They've made it possible to give these loans at negative interest rates, and extended the term to up to 10 years. That means, they could pay banks to buy JGBs. Thanks for joining us. If you are reading this, hit the like and subscribe button! Constant updates on bitcoin and macro: https://t.me/bitcoinandmarkets Free weekly Bitcoin Fundamentals Report: https://bitcoinandmarkets.com Find More and Follow Ansel Lindner: https://twitter.com/AnselLindner Christian Keroles: https://twitter.com/ck_snarks Watch this Episode: YouTube https://www.youtube.com/c/BitcoinMagazine || Rumble https://rumble.com/c/BitcoinMagazine Slide deck https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1MXyQLIpFQC2YNy8p8BTzUnoEqLs1_Dv6PCYc3JzC4X8/edit?usp=sharing US debt ceiling https://archive.ph/ipQoF Q4 real GDP report https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2023-01/gdp4q22_adv_fax.pdf Article on Japan's new bazooka https://archive.ph/Mvw1p If you enjoy this content please LIKE, SUBSCRIBE, REVIEW on iTunes, and SHARE! Written by Ansel Lindner THIS EPISODE'S SPONSORS: Moon Mortgage River Bitcoin 2023 Miami Bitcoin Magazine Bitcoin Magazine Pro

As markets shift, corporate treasurers and CFOs need to keep up. We talked to Corpay Cross-Border's currency research team, Karthik Sankaran, Senior Market Strategist, Karl Schamotta, Chief Market Strategist  and Peter Dragicevich, Currency Strategist - APAC about what's coming in for 2023. We touch on the impact of the substantial reversal in the US dollar in the fourth quarter of 2022, how US economy and Fed policy will affect markets, the Bank of Canada's stance and it's implications for the loonie, How China's internal policies impact global asset markets, the Eurozone economy and more. Note: The opinions expressed on FX in Focus News & Views are those of the speakers only, and do not necessarily reflect the views of Corpay or FLEETCOR Technologies Inc.  

Last week: Poor retail data and industrial production (PPI) Fed speakers: Brainard, Harker, Waller: —> rate hikes but Harker, Waller (amongst others) for 25 bps going forward. Blackout period for the Fed. BoJ: Surprise to markets but not to economists. Kept 50bps defence level on JGBs. Door for normalisation is open. Upgraded CPI forecast for the year.This week: Chinese markets are closed for the Lunar New Year celebration. Oil moving on the back of China optimism. Hawkish commentary by the ECB. BoC to hike by 25bps? US: PCE on Friday, Q4 GDP on Thurs. Inflation for AU, NZ - both on Wed. Earnings: MSFT, TSLA. NFLX came in last week —> beat subscriber forecast by 66%.

JGBs rallied, Yen basis widened, and the Yen weakened in the aftermath of the Bank of Japan's January Monetary Policy Board meeting. The surprise decision at the December BoJ meeting stoked speculation in the market about further changes this week. Ultimately, the BoJ stood pat but announced some enhanced lending capabilities that could prove significant.  In today's episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido reviews the January BoJ policy meeting, shares his outlook for monetary policy going forward, and discusses cross-border securities investing flows during December. He also shares his views on spot Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis.

Stocks in Japan surge as the yen posts its worst session in almost three years and the JGBs fall back as the BoJ insists it will continue its yield curve control procedure. We hear from Polish President Andrzej Duda who says that Russian President Vladimir Putin is on the back foot in Ukraine, calling on allies to further increase support for the nation. German Finance Minister Christian Lindner tells this channel that a trade war with the U.S. must be avoided and that Brussels should work hand-in-hand with Washington to combat inflation. In banking news, Goldman Sachs posts its worst profit miss in almost ten years with rival Morgan Stanley also underperforming. However, U.S. bank CEOs in Davos predicted a more gentle recession this year. Chinese Vice Premier Liu He is set to meet with U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen in Zurich as Beijing reports a steady increase in full-year FDI.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

The last time Jack Farley had Tokyo-based, global macro markets trader and Bank of Japan aficionado Weston Nakamura on Forward Guidance - the BOJ had shocked the world with a sudden unexpected major change in their Yield Curve Control policy. At the January Monetary Policy Meeting held today, the BOJ once again shocked markets and caused mayhem in bond and FX markets - but this time, by doing nothing. Despite the unprecedented scale of record-setting JGB buying (or, foreign and domestic investor selling pressure), the Bank of Japan delivered a unanimous vote of no change in Yield Curve Control policy for Governor Kuroda's second to last meeting of his historic, and dramatically controversial tenure of radical policy experimentation.  Ahead of today's policy release, Weston had been discussing his outlook for a "no-change" BOJ policy outcome, and had positioned for the event against market consensus, using the same framework that he and Jack had discussed at the end of December of market functioning and financial stability to determine policy outcome (as opposed to inflation-combating). In addition to the Bank of Japan and the most intense market pressure they are currently under, Weston also explains what is behind the remarkable strength in the yen as of late, how it is possible for JGBs to yield above the so-called Yield Curve Control upper ceiling, and what's next for the "least predictable" major central bank, as we head into the critical end of Governor Kuroda's era. See Weston and Jack from the previous December 2022 BOJ Day: Bank of Japan's Capitulation Perturbs Global Bond Market | Weston Nakamura Dec 21, 2022: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hYR34YbXMvY&t=157s Listen to Weston Nakamura and Emma Muhleman, CFA discuss the Bank of Japan in full detail on Twitter Spaces during live Japan trading hours ahead of the BOJ decision here: https://twitter.com/i/spaces/1BdGYyNpYAyGX?s=20 – Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Follow Weston on Twitter https://twitter.com/acrossthespread Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 __ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can't-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. __

Japan's Finance Ministry on Friday set the initial coupon for 10-year floating-rate Japanese government bonds to be issued in February for sale to individual investors at 0.33 pct, up from 0.17pctfor the January issue.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has stunned markets by raising the cap on its 10-year government bond and there's no one Jack would rather speak to than, Weston Nakamura, macro analyst and BOJ aficionado. Weston tells Jack that the BOJ's decision to allow Japanese government bonds (JGBs) to trade with a higher yield was not, as some westerners might presume, to fight inflation or even necessarily to defend the yen. Rather, the Bank of Japan is seeking to restore order to the JGB market, which has been steadily deteriorating throughout this year. Weston argues that if Japanese investors with capital abroad repatriate their capital and sell foreign assets, the U.S. Treasury market could be in for a wild ride, one similar to the chaos in U.K. gilt market in September. Filmed the afternoon of December 20, 2022. Follow Weston Nakamura on Twitter https://twitter.com/acrossthespread Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can't-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos

Dollar/Yen has rebounded from the lows while super long term JGBs have been volatile. The front end of the USDJPY basis curve continues to tighten while the long end has widened. The Kishida Administration has announced tax hikes and a bigger defense budget, which could increase volatility in the JGB market. Japanese investors also face challenges with managing their JGB and USDJPY positions ahead of year-end. In today's episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido reviews Japanese lifers first half fiscal year 2022 earnings and connects them to October securities flow data. He also shares his views on spot Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis. Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

Dollar/Yen and Yen rate have fallen from the highs while cross-currency basis has tightened and the Nikkei Average continues to recover. The front end of the JGB yield curve stabilized after the government announced it will increase issuance of JGBs to fund Prime Minister Kishida's second supplementary budget. Separately, Japanese bank and life insurance companies are releasing their H1 FY22 earnings results, which include details of losses incurred on foreign bond holdings in the recent global bond market rout. In today's episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido reviews cross border security investment flows during September and October and sets forth his outlook for the month of November. He also shares his views on spot Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis. Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

USDJPY is off the highs as the Dollar gives back a portion of recent gains. JGB yields reflect the strength of the Bank of Japan's yield control operations as an increase in buybacks last week helped the super long sector recover. USDJPY basis has tightened on both strong demand for JGBs from foreigner investors and Japanese investor selling of foreign bonds. Amidst the market volatility in G10 rate markets and the October BoJ meeting non-event, we expect the Tokyo market to reflect a mixture of JGB flows among Japanese and foreign investors, foreign companies' JPY Samurai bond issuance, and Japanese companies' overseas investing activities. In today's episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido dissects H2 FY22 Japanese life insurance company investment plans, discusses the Samurai bond market, and summarizes high points from the BoJ's October policy meeting. He also shares his views on spot Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis.  

We are only Wednesday, and the Bank of England (BoE) already intervened twice this week, to cool down the unbearable negative pressure on the British sovereign bonds. But the BoE Governor Bailey's lack of tact sent all efforts up in smoke. The UK sovereign and sterling remain under a decent selling pressure. Beyond Britain, all eyes are on FOMC minutes and the US inflation data. Today, the minutes from the FOMC's latest meeting will reveal if some Federal Reserve (Fed) members are concerned about going ‘too fast' in terms of rate hikes. US will also reveal the latest producer price index for the month of September. The US factory-gate prices are expected to have slowed from 8.7% to around 8.4%. Then tomorrow, we will have a better insight about the situation in consumer prices. The headline CPI is expected to have slowed from 8.3% to 8.1%, but core inflation may have spiked higher, which is bad news for those praying for the Fed to slow down the pace of its rate tightening. Elsewhere, the IMF cut its global growth forecast for next year to 2.7%, from 2.9% in July, and from 3.8% in January, and said that there's 25% probability that growth will slow to less than 2%. In the euro area, the GDP could rise just 0.5% next year. The EURUSD remains under a decent pressure of the strong dollar, and only a soft inflation data from the US could help the euro bears take a pause. In Japan, things are not necessarily better. The USDJPY spiked above the 146 level for the first time in 24 years, and investors couldn't trade the 10-year JGBs for three days, because the BoJ broke the system by buying just too much of the 10-year bonds to conduct a yield curve control strategy. Swap traders are now betting that the BoJ can't carry on with abnormally low interest rates for so long, and will be forced to hike its rates at some point. Listen to find out more!

USDJPY is through 140. In contrast, JPY rates have risen gradually, JPY cross-currency basis is mixed – tighter in the front end on foreign demand for short-term, while wider in the belly through the long end of the curve – and the Nikkei Average is flat. It would not be unexpected for Japanese exporters to cover USDJPY ahead of the quarter-end, pushing USDJPY even higher. In today's episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido reviews what was an eventful end of the summer, shares his outlook for September, and discusses the BoJ's JGB buying plans and the Ministry of Finance's JGB yield assumptions in its FY23 budget proposal. He also shares his views on spot Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis. Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

APAC stocks were mixed, Chinese data missed expectations whilst the PBoC surprised with 10bps rate cuts to its 1yr MLF rate and 7-day Reverse Repo rateDXY failed to sustain the early gains against its major counterparts, EUR/USD remained lacklustre, USD/JPY initially retreated but then pared most of its losses10yr UST futures were steady after last Friday's curve flattening, Bund futures were uneventful, 10yr JGBs futures eked marginal gainsCrude prices were subdued; Saudi Aramco's CEO said they are working to increase production from multiple energy sourcesBitcoin traded higher and briefly reclaimed the USD 25,000 level, while Ethereum fleetingly rose above USD 2,000Looking ahead, highlights include US NY Fed Manufacturing, Speech from Fed's Waller, and earnings from HellofreshRead the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Neither Dollar/Yen FX, JGBs, or Yen cross-currency basis have moved much as of late, ahead of the lull of the Obon summer holiday. Separately, recent torrential rains and flooding damage in Niigata and Yamagata prefectures highlight the great dangers of climate change and the need for the BoJ's climate change operations. In today's episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido reviews cross-border security flows and changes to the monetary base during the month of July. He also shares his view on spot Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis. Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

APAC stocks traded mixed after the 100bps Fed rate hike bets unwound; Chinese Q2 GDP missed forecasts but June Retail Sales beat estimatesDXY was rangebound, EUR/USD was slightly firmer, USD/JPY took a breather from yesterday's rally, and AUD/USD was softer after the Chinese growth data10yr USTs eked modest gains, Bunds remained elevated, and 10yr JGBs traded flatCrude futures were choppy, Spot gold lacked firm direction, and copper declined after the Chinese GDPFed's Waller (voter) said markets got “ahead of themselves” with a 100bps pricing; Bullard (2022 voter) said he still supports a 75bps July moveLooking ahead, highlights include US NY Fed Manufacturing, Retail Sales, IP & Uni. of Michigan (Prelim.), Speech from Fed's Bostic & ECB's Rehn, Earnings from UNH, Blackrock, Citi & Wells FargoClick here for the Week Ahead previewRead the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

APAC stocks mostly traded with cautious gains, Nikkei 225 outperformed, and US equity futures were rangebound overnightDXY remained above the 108.00 level and closer to 108.50, EUR/USD weakened, and USD/JPY extended above 138.0010yr USTs declined after the post-CPI fluctuations, Bunds continued to retreat, and 10yr JGBs were marginally lowerCrude futures remained choppy, spot gold was kept rangebound, and copper traded sidewaysLooking ahead, highlights include Swedish CPIF, US IJC, Speech from Fed's Waller, Earnings from JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley & Charles SchwabClick here for the Week Ahead previewRead the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly positive as the region shrugged off the weak lead from Wall St; US equity futures eked marginal gains overnightDXY lacked firm direction after the prior day's choppy price action, EUR/USD was contained, and USD/JPY saw a rebound10yr USTs marginally weakened, Bunds were lower, and 10yr JGBs traded sidewaysCrude futures were choppy, spot gold was rangebound, and copper was indecisiveRBNZ hiked the OCR by 50bps to 2.50% and the BoK raised its Base Rate by 50bps to 2.25%, both as expectedLooking ahead, highlights include UK GDP, EZ Industrial Production, US CPI, BoC Policy Announcement, IEA OMR, Speeches from BoC's Macklem & Rogers, Supply from Italy, Germany & USRead the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly negative after the weak performance across global counterparts; US equity futures extended on losses overnightDXY remained firm above 108.00 for around its best levels in around two decades; EUR/USD almost hit parity10yr USTs were underpinned, Bunds held on to the prior day's firm gains, and 10yr JGBs benefitted from haven demandCrude futures were pressured by a firmer dollar, the negative risk tone, and China's COVID woes; copper weakened overnightWhite House Press Secretary Jean-Pierre said the US CPI data is expected to be "highly elevated”, citing gas pricesLooking ahead, highlights include German ZEW, OPEC MOMR, Speeches from Fed's Barkin, BoE's Bailey & Cunliffe, US, UK & German SupplyClick here for the Week Ahead previewRead the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

The Lord Of The Dark Matter, James Aitken returns to The End Game to handicap the predicament in which central bankers find themselves now that the RBA has been forced away from yield curve control and Japan's currency and JGBs (the fabled Widowmaker Trade) are once again in the crosshairs of the bond market As a reminder, Silver Tier subscribers to https://www.grant-williams.com get access to both Things That Make You Go Hmmm… and all editions of The Grant Williams Podcast, including The End Game, The Super Terrific Happy Hour, The Narrative Game, This Week In Doom and Shifts Happen so sign up today!

APAC stocks mostly suffered firm losses amid the global risk-aversion which saw the S&P 500 close lower by 3.1%.BoJ kept policy settings unchanged as expected and will keep offering to buy 10yr JGBs at 0.25%.DXY has reclaimed 104 status, JPY is the clear laggard in G10 FX, EUR/USD sits on a 1.05 handle. European equity futures are indicative of a positive open with Eurostoxx 50 +0.8% after the cash market closed lower by 3.0% yesterday.Looking ahead, highlights include EZ CPI (Final), Quad Witching & Speech from Fed Chair Powell.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

USDJPY and Japan stocks continue to fall, pulled down by weakness for U.S. stocks. JGB rates have not moved much under the tight control of the BoJ's yield management, but JPY basis is still likely to widen. Japanese G10 bond flows are substantial, and Tokyo market JGB asset swap appeal could be impacted by Japanese investors trading JGBs. In today's episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido reviews developments with cross-asset JPY asset positions, as displayed in the March USTIC and J-BoP, and April JSDA data. He also shares his views on spot Dollar/Yen, Yen Rate, and Yen basis. Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

European bourses began the session lackluster before seeing a marginal pick up amid broader risk-on moves as Ukraine's Zelensky spoke.However, this upside was fleeting with bourses and US futures now softer, ES -0.30%, amid reports of EU sanctions touching on energy (via coal)DXY remains bid but capped just above 99.00 while AUD outperforms amid RBA implying meetings are liveBunds have retreated markedly from initial best levels and after Monday's upside, OATs underperform as polls imply a tighter Macron-Le Pen raceWTI and Brent reside towards the top-end of another relatively modest range at this point in the session, awaiting further Ukraine-Russia updates.Looking ahead, highlights include US Composite/Services Final PMIs, US ISM Services PMI, Fed's Williams, Brainard, Kashkari & George.As of 11:10BST/06:10ETLOOKING AHEADUS Composite/Services Final PMIs, US ISM Services PMI, Fed's Williams, Brainard, Kashkari & George.Click here for the Week Ahead preview.GEOPOLITICSRUSSIA-UKRAINENEGOTIATIONS/TALKSUkrainian President Zelensky said he will address the UN Security Council on Tuesday.Ukraine President Zelensky has endorsed a delegation to partake in negotiations with Russia re. coordinating/preparing a draft treaty on Ukraine security guarantees, via Ifx.Ukraine President says the possibility of holding discussions with Russia is 'very challenging', but he has no other option, via Reuters citing Ukrainian TV.DEFENCE/MILITARYThe US successfully tested a hypersonic missile in mid-March but kept it quiet for two weeks to avoid further tensions with Russia ahead of President Biden's trip to Europe, according to CNN sources.Russia's deputy envoy to UN Polyanskiy said AUKUS Provokes new round of arms race, Russia urges US to abandon plans to deploy ground-based missiles in APR, "rejects" possibility of using nuclear weapons in Ukraine, via Sputnik.ENERGY/ECONOMIC SANCTIONS & UPDATESUS Treasury will not allow any Dollar-debt payments to be made from Russian government accounts at US financial institutions, according to a spokesperson.EU's Dombrovskis said oil and coal sanctions are also an option for new EU measures against Russia, via Reuters.Big EU sanctions package against Russia is coming; first tranche will touch on energy (EU coal ban from Russia), if approved, via WSJ's Norman. New bans on export of machinery worth EUR 10bln to Russia, new oligarch hits and family members of Russians, cap on potash imports and finally the transport road freight and vessel restrictions. Will need backing of EU27, which WSJ reporter says may not be easy.OTHERNorth Korea said that South Korea is not their principal enemy, but if South Korea chooses confrontation, then nuclear forces will carry out their mission, via KCNA.EUROPEAN TRADEEQUITIESEuropean bourses began the session lacklustre before seeing a marginal pick up amid broader risk-on moves as Ukraine's Zelensky spoke.However, this upside was fleeting and bourses are now softer, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.5%; note, the pullback began before, but has been exacerbated by, the latest sanctions updates.Sectors, has Energy Names outperforming amid benchmark action while Basic Resources lag awaiting the touted next set of EU sanctions.Stateside, US futures have moved directionally in tandem with EZ peers but magnitudes were more contained initially, but have slipped further amid the latest sanctions reports.Click here for more detail.FXAussie rules as RBA removes patience from policy guidance to imply upcoming meetings are live for rate hikes; AUD/USD approaches 0.7650 after round number and Fib resistance (circa 0.7609) breaks.Kiwi tags along after BNZ raised its May call for the RBNZ to a 50 bp tightening move from 25 bp previously, NZD/USD probes 0.7000 as AUD/NZD runs into headwinds above 1.0900.Dollar underpinned by bear-steepening US Treasury backdrop, but DXY unable to extend much beyond 99.000.Swedish Crown bid as another Riksbank member registers concern over inflation and contends that it's time to re-evaluate policy at the next meeting, EUR/SEK edges close to 10.3000.Loonie and Nokkie firm as WTI and Brent crude continue to rebound amidst ongoing geopolitical supply risk; USD/CAD near 1.2450 and EUR/NOK around 9.5300 at one stageJapanese Finance Minister Suzuki said they are closely watching FX impact on Japan's economy and must look out for any sharp FX moves.Japanese Vice Finance Minister declined to comment on FX intervention, closely watching FX with a sense of urgency.Click here for more detail.Notable FX Expiries, NY Cut:Click here for more detail.FIXED INCOMEBonds back in reverse gear after Monday's bounce, with Bunds around 100 ticks off their 159.42 overnight Eurex peak, Gilts 71 ticks below par circa 121.17 and the 10 year T-note closer to 121-22+ than 122-10.French OATs underperforming and testing 150.00 support in futures as polls predict a tight run-off between Macron and Le Pen for the Presidency.2026 UK DMO issuance draws decent demand, but tail a tad longer and yield much higher.Click here for more detail.COMMODITIESWTI and Brent reside towards the top-end of another relatively modest range at this point in the session, as fundamentals haven't significantly changed and we await Ukraine-Russia updates.Thus far, talks are ongoing, Ukraine acknowledges they are very difficult but there is no alternative and Russia continues to pushback on Bucha allegations.JP Morgan (JPM) is reportedly mulling its commodity exposure following the nickel episode, according to Bloomberg sources.Russia prevented the movement of a ship loaded with Ukrainian wheat after it was bought by Egypt, according to the Embassy of Ukraine in Cairo cited by Al Jazeera.Russian oil and gas condensate output is down 4% in early April, according to Interfax.Some Japanese aluminium buyers agreed a Q2 premium of USD 172/T, -2.8% QQ, according to Reuters sources.Spot gold/silver eased from best amid the initial risk-on actionClick here for more detail.CENTRAL BANKSThe RBA maintained its Cash Rate Target at 0.10% as expected. The statement surprisingly dropped reference to the word "patient". The Board noted inflation has picked up and a further increase is expected. The statement made no explicit mention of rate increases.BoJ Governor Kuroda said recent forex moves are somewhat rapid. He added if the rise in long-term rates is rapid, BoJ will offer to buy unlimited amount of 10yr JGBs and it may not necessarily be a "last resort", via Reuters.A senior BoJ official said Japanese consumer inflation will likely hover around 2% for some time from April onward, via Reuters.A BoK official said upside risks to inflation path has risen since the Feb forecast; will continue to monitor commodities, via Reuters.BNZ now expects the RBNZ to hike the OCR by 50bps in May (prev. 25bps) "but, hesitantly, keep April at 25".ECB's Rehn says ECB decided to proceed with gradual monpol normalisation in March, but recent inflation rates may give rise to the need for measures to curb inflation more quickly.Riksbank's Floden says inflation will be significantly higher than in their latest forecast, will need to re-evaluate monetary policy at the next meeting; risks for persistently high inflation have increased. The domestic economy is in good shape, labour market is strong.DATA RECAPEU S&P Global Composite Final PMI (Mar) 54.9 vs. Exp. 54.5 (Prev. 54.5); Services Final PMI (Mar) 55.6 vs. Exp. 54.8 (Prev. 54.8)UK Composite PMI Final (Mar) 60.9 vs. Exp. 59.7 (Prev. 59.7); Services PMI Final (Mar) 62.6 vs. Exp. 61.0 (Prev. 61.0)NOTABLE US HEADLINESTesla (TSLA) CEO Musk, after purchasing a large stake in Twitter (TWTR), asks via a Twitter Poll whether users would like an "edit" button [for Twitter posts].US President Biden is to propose adjustments to the Affordable Care Act to extend subsidies for families, according to WSJ; set to be announced today.Click here for the US Early Morning note.CRYPTOBitcoin is slightly firmer, residing near the top end of a slim USD 46,188-46,889 range.APAC TRADEEQUITIESAPAC stocks traded mixed as the region also observed mass closures.Mainland China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan were all closed today due to domestic holidays.ASX 200 traded in the green in the run-up to the RBA release but trimmed those gains following the RBA's hawkish hold.Nikkei 225 reversed the gains seen at the open amid unfavourable currency dynamics after verbal jawboning from Japanese officials.KOSPI traded lacklustre as South Korean March CPI rose at its fastest pace since 2011.NOTABLE APAC HEADLINESChina's Shanghai city reported 13,086 new asymptomatic COVID cases for April 4th (vs 8,581 for April 3rd).Australia is to speed up the Australian Defence Force's missile strike capabilities.DATA RECAPSouth Korea CPI Growth Y/Y (Mar) 4.1% vs. Exp. 3.8% (Prev. 3.7%); M/M (Mar) 0.7% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 0.6%)

APAC stocks traded mixed as the region observed mass closures, with Mainland China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan all away.US equity futures traded flat with a slightly softer bias but around yesterday's best levels.European equity futures are indicative of a slightly flat/softer open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.1% after the cash market closed higher by 0.8% yesterday.DXY hovers around the 99.00 mark, AUD outperforms post-RBA, EUR/USD remains sub-1.10 and JPY firmer post-jawboning. RBA maintained its Cash Rate Target at 0.10% as expected; statement dropped reference to the word "patient".Looking ahead, highlights include EZ, UK & US Composite/Services Final PMIs, US ISM Services PMI,  Fed's Williams, Kashkari, and supply from the UK.US TRADEUS stocks finished higher across the board whilst Twitter shares soared 27% after Tesla (+5.6%) CEO Musk reported a 9.2% passive stake in the social media giant.SPX +0.84% at 4,584, NDX +2.01% at 15,159, DJIA +0.30% at 34,922, R2K +0.60% at 2,096.Click here for a detailed summary.NOTABLE US HEADLINESTesla (TSLA) CEO Musk, after purchasing a large stake in Twitter (TWTR), asks via a Twitter Poll whether users would like an "edit" button [for Twitter posts].GEOPOLITICSRUSSIA-UKRAINENEGOTIATIONS/TALKSUkrainian President Zelensky said he will address the UN Security Council on Tuesday.City council of Ukraine's Mariupol said Russia has appointed its own mayor of Mariupol, according to Reuters.DEFENCE/MILITARYThe US successfully tested a hypersonic missile in mid-March but kept it quiet for two weeks to avoid further tensions with Russia ahead of President Biden's trip to Europe, according to CNN sources.Russia's deputy envoy to UN Polyanskiy said AUKUS Provokes new round of arms race, Russia urges US to abandon plans to deploy ground-based missiles in APR, "rejects" possibility of using nuclear weapons in Ukraine, via Sputnik.ENERGY/ECONOMIC SANCTIONSEurogroup President Donohoe said Euro countries are ready to step up sanctions against Russia, but have not discussed details yet, according to Reuters.White House Adviser Sullivan said US is working with European allies to coordinate further sanctions on Russia and concluded Russia has committed war crimes and Bucha provides more evidence to support that. He said the conflict may not be just a few more weeks but could be months, and they are talking with European officials on sanctions options including for Russian energy.US Treasury will not allow any Dollar-debt payments to be made from Russian government accounts at US financial institutions, according to a spokesperson.OTHERNorth Korea said that South Korea is not their principal enemy, but if South Korea chooses confrontation, then nuclear forces will carry out their mission, via KCNA.CENTRAL BANKSThe RBA maintained its Cash Rate Target at 0.10% as expected. The statement surprisingly dropped reference to the word "patient". The Board noted inflation has picked up and a further increase is expected. The statement made no explicit mention of rate increases.ECB's Knot said the ECB should act in the face of high inflation and gradual but timely normalisation required. He added that high inflation not completely due to supply shock and demand has recovered far faster than expected, via Reuters.BoJ Governor Kuroda said recent forex moves are somewhat rapid. He added if the rise in long-term rates is rapid, BoJ will offer to buy unlimited amount of 10yr JGBs and it may not necessarily be a "last resort", via Reuters.A senior BoJ official said Japanese consumer inflation will likely hover around 2% for some time from April onward, via Reuters.A BoK official said upside risks to inflation path has risen since the Feb forecast; will continue to monitor commodities, via Reuters.BNZ now expects the RBNZ to hike the OCR by 50bps in May (prev. 25bps) "but, hesitantly, keep April at 25".APAC TRADEEQUITIESAPAC stocks traded mixed as the region also observed mass closures.Mainland China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan were all closed today due to domestic holidays.ASX 200 traded in the green in the run-up to the RBA release but trimmed those gains following the RBA's hawkish hold.Nikkei 225 reversed the gains seen at the open amid unfavourable currency dynamics after verbal jawboning from Japanese officials.KOSPI traded lacklustre as South Korean March CPI rose at its fastest pace since 2011.US equity futures traded flat with a slightly softer bias but around yesterday's best levels; ES -0.1%European equity futures are indicative of a slightly flat/softer open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.1% after the cash market closed higher by 0.8% yesterday.FXFX markets were relatively quiet for most of the session aside from the early Yen action and the post-RBA Aussie.DXY eventually reclaimed 99.00 and US yields caught a bid across the curve in late APAC trade.EUR/USD remained sub-1.1000 and GBP/USD maintained its 1.3100-status, with the pairs uneventful for most of the night.AUD soared after the RBA's hawkish hold in which it dropped the reference to patience from its statement.JPY-pairs were hit following verbal jawboning from the Japanese Finance Minister and BoJ Governor.Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki said they are closely watching FX impact on Japan's economy and must look out for any sharp FX moves.Japanese Vice Finance Minister declined to comment on FX intervention, closely watching FX with a sense of urgency.FIXED INCOME10yr JGB yields fell after the BoJ Governor said the central bank will offer to buy an unlimited amount of 10yr JGBs and may not necessarily be a "last resort".10yr UST futures drifted lower overnight with the corresponding cash yield on either side of 2.40%.Bund futures mimicked UST price action and remained within yesterday's post-Europe range.COMMODITIESCrude futures were firmer in what was seemingly APAC traders picking up the baton from Wall Street trade.JP Morgan (JPM) is reportedly mulling its commodity exposure following the nickel episode, according to Bloomberg sources.Italy's Ecology Transition Minister expects 10bcm of extra gas from deals Algeria, Azerbaijan, and Libya this year, and to reach more than 20bcm/yr in early 2024. Italy expects to close first deals for extra gas next week, according to Reuters.Iran has announced the return of oil production to pre-sanction levels, according to Sky News Arabia.Spot gold edged lower as the Buck slowly recovered but remained within recent ranges.Copper traded flat and with volumes low due to China's day off.Russia prevented the movement of a ship loaded with Ukrainian wheat after it was bought by Egypt, according to the Embassy of Ukraine in Cairo cited by Al Jazeera.CRYPTOCrypto markets were sideways overnight with BTC above USD 45k and Ethereum north of USD 3,500.US SEC Chair Gensler has asked staff to consider expanding existing investor protections to crypto trading, according to Reuters.NOTABLE APAC HEADLINESChina's Shanghai city reported 13,086 new asymptomatic COVID cases for April 4th (vs 8,581 for April 3rd).Australia is to speed up the Australian Defence Force's missile strike capabilitiesDATA RECAPSouth Korea CPI Growth Y/Y (Mar) 4.1% vs. Exp. 3.8% (Prev. 3.7%)South Korea CPI Growth M/M (Mar) 0.7% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 0.6%)

Asia-Pac equities initially traded mixed, but sentiment improved; Mainland China was closed whilst Hong Kong outperformed.Russian Chief Negotiator said Russia's position on Crimea and Donbas remains unchanged and talks will resume on Monday.European equity futures are indicative of a slightly firmer open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.2% after the cash market closed higher by 0.4% on Friday.DXY remains above 98.50, EUR/USD was flat on either side of 1.1050, Antipodeans narrowly outperform in the G10 FX space.Looking ahead, highlights include EZ Sentix, US Factory Orders, BoE's Cunliffe, Mann.US TRADEUS stocks finished higher on Friday with trade choppy as a new quarter commenced but eyes remained on the inverted yield curve.SPX +0.32% at 4,544, NDX +0.15% at 14,861, DJIA +0.40% at 34,818, R2K +0.87% at 2,089.Click here for a detailed summary.NOTABLE US HEADLINESTesla (TSLA): Q1 deliveries 310.4k (prev. 308.6k Q/Q; exp. 309-315k).GEOPOLITICSRUSSIA-UKRAINENEGOTIATIONS/TALKSRussian Chief Negotiator said Russia's position on Crimea and Donbas remains unchanged, a draft peace agreement is not ready and talks will resume on Monday, via Reuters.Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson said Kyiv is attempting to disrupt peace talks.SGH Macro Advisors, in a note dated April 1st, suggested it is their understand that Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov conveyed to his Chinese counterpart that “there is still a long way to be walked” to sign a peace treaty between Russia and Ukraine under conditions that are “mutually acceptable”, although a great progress has been made. Lavrov added that Russia does not rule out settlement in Roubles for other commodities if hostility continues from the West. Commodities such as oil, wheat, fertilizer, lumber, and uranium could be affected.Russia has requested a US Security Council Meeting to discuss "provocation of Ukrainian radicals", according to Reuters citing Ria.Russia's Kremlin repeated that the special military operation in Ukraine will achieve all of its aims, via Reuters.US Secretary of State Blinken will travel to Belgium on April 5-7th for a NATO meeting, according to the State Department.DEFENCE/MILITARYRussia has revised its Ukraine war strategy to focus on trying to take control of the Donbas and other regions in eastern Ukraine with a target date of early May, according to several US officials cited by CNN.Poland's Ruling Party leader said Poland would be open to deploying US nuclear weapons in Poland, according to the Jerusalem Post.There have been reports via Western media of continued civilian killings by Russia in several cities, particularly in Bucha.NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg said what we see in Ukraine is not a real withdrawal by Russian troops, via Reuters.Ukraine's 368.5k BPD Kremenchuk oil refinery was completely destroyed during a Russian attack, according to the regional governor.UK said a fire has destroyed several oil tanks in the Russian city of Belgorod, close to the border with Ukraine, via Reuters.Explosions were heard in Ukraine's city of Odessa, according to a Reuters witness and in the city of Kherson, according to a local media.White House said the US is providing Ukraine with supplies in case Russia deploys chemical weapons.ENERGY/ECONOMIC SANCTIONSRussian government spokesperson Peskov said Russia could demand RUB payments for other goods. He added that payment for gas supplies in Russian Roubles will be made from the end of the second half of April, or even early May, according to Reuters.EU ambassadors are expected to discuss fresh Russian sanctions on Wednesday, according to FT sources.UK PM Johnson said UK is stepping up military support for Ukraine and sanctions on Russia, according to Reuters.German Chancellor Scholz said the West will agree on further Russian sanctions in the coming days, according to Reuters.EU must discuss import ban on Russian gas deliveries, according to the German Defence Ministry cited by Reuters.US Department of Commerce on Friday added 120 Russian and Belarusian entities, largely comprised of companies linked to the military, via Reuters.Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania stopped imports of Russian gas from April 1st, according to the FT.Shell (SHEL LN) cannot use Gazprom's Rouble payment method due to sanctions, according to Reuters.OTHERA Chinese diplomat, following talks with EU, said China cannot change the EU and the EU cannot change China. China said it is not deliberately circumventing Russian sanctions, via Reuters.North Korea continues to develop chemical and biological weapons which together with its nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities pose a serious threat to South Korea and other US allies, according to Yonhap citing US officials on Friday.A two-month truce has been announced by the warring sides in Yemen, according to The Guardian.CENTRAL BANKSFed's Williams (voter) expects a combination of rate hikes and balance sheet reduction to help ease inflation back to 4% this year and closer to 2% in 2024. Williams said balance sheet reduction could begin as soon as May. He added that there are no plans to use the balance sheet for Yield Curve Control, via Reuters. Williams also noted that the USD has proven itself as a safe haven. Williams also suggested that we have not yet seen global risk sentiment much impacted by the Ukraine war.Fed's Evans (2023 voter) said raising rates to just under 2.5% by March 2023 gives Fed 'optionality'. He said it is not a big risk if rate-hike path includes 'some' 50bps hikes to get to neutral sooner. He said the latest jobs report is not indicative of overheating and the monthly inflation reports should start to be lower in H2 22, but rhetoric won't change until 2023, via Reuters. Raising rates quickly 'puts a premium on communicating' how far rates may ultimately need to rise, via Reuters.Fed's Daly (2024 voter) said the case for 50bps rate hike in May has grown, according to the FT. She added she is more confident that adjusting early would be appropriate.ECB's Schnabel said the ECB plans to raise interest rates some time after winding down its bond purchase programme Q3 2022, via Reuters.APAC TRADEEQUITIESAPAC stocks initially traded mixed but later turned mostly higher.ASX 200 saw early outperformance as mining names surged, with rising EV sales also boosting some Russia-related metals.Nikkei 225 traded flat with a downside bias throughout the session.Hang Seng outperformed and was bolstered at the open by Chinese dual-listed stocks, with the tech sector the main beneficiary of the weekend Audit news, whilst gains compounded after HK Chief Executive Lam said she will not seek a second term.China on Saturday proposed revising confidentiality rules involving offshore listings, removing a legal hurdle to cooperation on audit oversight while putting the onus on Chinese companies to protect state secrets, via Reuters.Mainland China was closed due to a domestic holiday.US equity futures kicked off trade relatively flat before drifting lower and holding a downside bias after the first set of APAC cash opens; ES Unch.European equity futures are indicative of a slightly firmer open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.2% after the cash market closed higher by 0.4% on Friday.FXDXY gained in early trade and remained north of 98.50 throughout the session following further weekend Fed commentary.EUR/USD was flat on either side of 1.1050.GBP/USD was similarly uneventful but retained a 1.3100 handle.JPY initially outpaced peers but gains later faded as the APAC mood recovered.Antipodeans rose to the top of the G10 bunch - aided by gains in some base metals.S&P said Turkey long-term LC rating lowered to 'B+' from 'BB-'; FC rating affirmed at 'B+'; outlook remains negative.BCB is to continue reducing EUR and USD dollars as reserves, but will keep on increasing CNY as reserves, according to Reuters.FIXED INCOME10yr UST was softer since the open whilst in terms of cash yields, the 2yr, 3yr, 5yr and 7yr remain above the 10yr and 30yr.Bunds futures also held a downside bias but to a lesser magnitude.10yr JGBs were relatively tame during the APAC session.BoJ offered to buy JPY 150bln in JGBs up to 1yr, JPY 475bln in 1-3yr (Prev. 450bln), JPY 475bln in 3-5yr (prev. 600bln) and PY 125bln in 10-25yr (prev. 100bln)COMMODITIESWTI and Brent futures saw mild early weakness and have traded sideways since.US DoE on Friday announced emergency notice of sale of crude oil to fulfil release from SPR to address the energy price hike.Reports on Saturday suggested Gazprom has stopped deliveries of Russian gas to Germany via the Yamal-Europe pipeline. It was then reported Gazprom has booked to pump gas through the Polish section of the Yamal-Europe pipeline on Sunday night to Monday, according to Interfax."A UN-brokered two-month ceasefire in Yemen was broadly holding on its first full day with oil shipments reaching the port of Hodeida", according to The Guardian.The Russian Energy Ministry has delayed the publication of March oil output numbers amid technical issues, according to reports.Azerbaijan plans to supply 9.5bcm of gas to Italy, according to Interfax.ECB rejected the request from energy traders for financial support, according to Reuters.Spot gold traded rangebound and remains within recent parameters.Copper was marginally softer during APAC trade.Indian State has cancelled bids by Adani Enterprises to supply imported coal as prices that were quoted were too high, according to a government official cited by Reuters.CRYPTOBitcoin was volatile around 46,000 level and Ethereum meandered around 3,500.NOTABLE APAC HEADLINESThe Chinese army is sending over 2,000 medical personnel to Shanghai to aid with its COVID outbreak, according to CCTV.Hong Kong Chief Executive Lam will not seek re-election, according to NK01.South Korea's former PM Han Duck-Soo has been nominated as PM. He said the country needs to take more efforts to curb rising household debt, financial imbalances, and to maintain a trade surplus, according to Reuters.Pakistani PM Khan's cabinet has been dissolved and fresh elections will be held in 90 days, according to Reuters.Sri Lanka's government imposed a curfew amid the rising domestic unrest, via Reuters.EUROPE-SPECIFIC HEADLINESHungarian opposition leader has accepted defeat in elections, with PM Orban declaring victory.UK government is said to be mulling permanent replacements to programmes that helped banks lend to firms during the pandemic; the scheme is expected to focus on small and medium-sized firms. Sources added focus is on growth of UK business, via FT.

APAC stocks were cautious following the uninspiring lead from Wall St and regional soft data releases; S&P 500 -1.5%.UK reportedly urged Ukraine not to back down and is concerned US, France and Germany will push Ukraine to make significant concessions to Russia.DXY is on a firmer footing on a 98 handle, JPY is the laggard in an otherwise contained G10 FX space.European equity futures are indicative of a flat open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future relatively unchanged after the cash market closed lower by 1.4% yesterday.Looking ahead, highlights include EZ, UK & US Final Manufacturing PMIs, US Labour Market Report, ISM Manufacturing PMI, China-EU Summit, Speech from Fed's Evans.US TRADEUS stocks traded negative with losses exacerbated into the close on a chunky sell-side imbalance into month- and quarter-end, with sentiment already hit throughout the day as Ukraine/Russia optimism waned further.S&P 500 -1.4% at 4,539, Nasdaq 100 -1.6% at 14,838, Dow Jones -1.6% at 34,678, Russell 2000 -1.0% at 2,067.GEOPOLITICSRUSSIA-UKRAINENEGOTIATIONS/TALKSUK reportedly urged Ukraine not to back down and is concerned US, France and Germany will push Ukraine to “settle” and make significant concessions to Russia, according to The Times citing a government sourceRussian Defence Ministry said it will open a humanitarian corridor from Mariupol to Zaporizhzhia on April 1st, following the request by German and French leaders to Russian President Putin, according to TASS.DEFENCE/MILITARYUkrainian President Zelensky said the situation in the south of Ukraine and the Donbas region remains extremely difficult, according to Reuters.Ukrainian General said Russian forces are preparing new groups to besiege the cities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk which are both in the Donbas region, while Russian forces transferred additional missiles to Belarus to increase attacks on Ukrainian cities, according to Al Jazeera.Ukraine's envoy to Japan said the situation on the ground is turning better for Ukraine and they will soon be able to protect their skies with advanced military equipment set to be provided by the US and UK, according to Reuters.UK Ministry of Defence said Russia is redeploying forces from Georgia to reinforce its invasion of Ukraine.IAEA said it is in close consultations with Ukraine on sending its first assistance and support mission to Chernobyl in the next few days and is not able to confirm reports of Russian forces receiving high doses of radiation, according to Reuters.US senior defence official said there are currently no indications that Russia is preparing to use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine, according to Reuters.Governor of Belgorod in Russia near the border with Ukraine confirmed an oil depot fire was caused by a Ukrainian helicopter attack inside of Russia, according to ELINT News.ENERGY/ECONOMIC SANCTIONSWhite House said the Commerce Department will take further action against Russia in the coming days, according to Reuters.Russia's Foreign Ministry said Russia will not ask the EU to end sanctions and has a sufficient margin of safety, according to RIA.FUND/SOVEREIGN/OTHER NEWSRussian Finance Ministry said a buyback of its 2022 Eurobond was completed and it purchased it back for the nominal value of almost USD 1.45bln. Holders of the 2022 Eurobond have received payments in Roubles totalling the amount of RUB 124.4bln.Russia adopted a resolution whereby wheat, meslin, rye, barley, and corn are removed from the export ban to EAEU countries, according to a government statement cited by Interfax.US State Department called on any US citizens in Russia or Ukraine to leave immediately over concerns of being targeted specifically for arrest, according to Reuters.OTHERJapan froze the assets of 4 additional Russian organisations, 3 Russians and 6 North Koreans for involvement in North Korea's weapons projects, according to Reuters.APAC TRADEEQUITIESAPAC stocks were cautious following the uninspiring lead from Wall St, where the major indices closed off their worst quarterly performance in two years and as the region digested weak data releases.ASX 200 traded rangebound as pressure from losses in tech, industrials and financials was counterbalanced by resilience in the commodity-related sectors and upgrade to Australian PMI data.Nikkei 225 was subdued after mixed Tankan data in which the headline Large Manufacturing Index topped estimates, but Large Manufacturers and Non-Manufacturers' sentiment worsened for the first time in 7 quarters.Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were mixed with sentiment clouded after the PBoC drained liquidity and Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI slipped into contraction territory, although the mainland recovered amid the partial lifting of the lockdown in Shanghai and as Chinese press continued to advocate monetary easing.US equity futures nursed losses but with upside capped; ES +0.3%European equity futures are indicative of a flat open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future relatively unchanged after the cash market closed lower by 1.4% yesterday.FXDXY was kept afloat by recent haven flows and as yields gained overnight, while focus shifts to the NFP data.EUR/USD languished below 1.1100 amid the threat of Russia cutting off the gas supply to Europe.GBP/USD traded rangebound with a mildly negative bias against the greenback.USD/JPY gained on widening yield differentials and a weaker Tankan survey.Antipodeans were uneventful amid the cautious mood, weak Chinese PMI data and recent oil declines.FIXED INCOME10yr USTs retreated as yields were led higher by the front-end which saw a brief inversion of 2yr/10yr curve.Bunds continued to fade recent gains after stalling near the 159.00 level.10yr JGBs were underpinned after the BoJ boosted its scheduled monthly bond purchases and following the deterioration in the BoJ's Tankan survey, but with gains capped after a failed incursion above 150.00.COMMODITIESWTI and Brent were stuck at the prior day's lows after President Biden's historic SPR announcement.US President Biden said an additional 30-50mln bbls of oil could be released by allies and partners, while Biden added the SPR release could cut between USD 0.10-0.35/gallon but depends on how much allies release, according to Reuters.White House Press Secretary Psaki said a gas tax holiday is not off the table, according to Reuters.US House Majority Leader Hoyer said oil companies should either produce on leases and drill wells or pay a fee for unused leases and idled wells, according to EIN News.Japan's Industry Minister said it is not clear whether the latest US decision to release oil will be done by the US alone or become part of an IEA-coordinated release, according to Reuters.Venezuela's PDVSA is looking to buy and lease tankers in anticipation of a possible easing of US sanctions on exports, according to Reuters sources and a document.Turkey raised natural gas prices by 44.3% for electricity production and by 50% for factories, while it also hiked prices by 35% for households.Spot gold traded rangebound amid a slightly firmer greenback and ahead of the US jobs report.Copper was subdued by the cautious mood and with Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI at a 2-year low.CRYPTOBitcoin traded lower overnight with prices back beneath the 45,000 level.NOTABLE APAC HEADLINESPBoC injected CNY 10bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate at 2.10% for a CNY 90bln net drain.PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.3509 vs exp. 6.3473 (prev. 6.3482).USTR Tai said they are not necessarily looking to negotiate a new agreement on trade with China and will focus on issues not addressed in the 'phase 1' deal, while she added that US trade policy on China will focus on Beijing's targeting of critical industries for domination, according to Reuters. USTR Tai also commented that they are in conversations with Taiwan and other countries interested in joining the Indo-Pacific economic framework.DATA RECAPChinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI Final (Mar) 48.1 vs Exp. 50.0 (Prev. 50.4)Japanese Tankan Large Manufacturing Index (Q1) 14 vs Exp. 12 (Prev. 18)Japanese Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook (Q1) 9 vs Exp. 10 (Prev. 13)Japanese Tankan Large Non-Manufacturing Index (Q1) 9 vs Exp. 5 (Prev. 9)Japanese Tankan Large Non-Manufacturing Outlook (Q1) 7 vs Exp. 8 (Prev. 8)Japanese Tankan All Big Capex Est (Q1) 2.2% vs Exp. 4.0% (Prev. 9.3%)

APAC stocks traded cautiously at month-end following the weak lead from the US; S&P 500 -0.6%.Ukrainian negotiator said peace talks between Russia and Ukraine will resume online on April 1st.DXY attempted to nurse losses but remains on a 97 handle, JPY lags in the G10 FX space as USD/JPY trims losses.US President Biden's administration is considering a 'massive' release of oil to combat inflation, according to Bloomberg.European equity futures are indicative of a higher open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future up 0.5% after the cash market closed lower by 1.1% yesterday.Looking ahead, highlights include UK GDP, German Retail Sales & Unemployment, US IJC, PCE Price Index, OPEC+ Meeting, Speeches from Fed's Williams, ECB's Lane & de Guindos.US TRADEUS stocks traded negative as doubts grew regarding the progress from Russia-Ukraine talks with Russian forces not showing signs of a withdrawal.S&P500 -0.6% at 4,603, Nasdaq 100 -1.1% at 15,071, Dow Jones -0.2% at 35,228, Russell 2000 -2.0% at 2,091.NOTABLE US HEADLINESFed's George (2022 voter) said the possibility for yield curve inversion should factor into Fed balance sheet chat and that Fed holdings should fall 'significantly', allowing longer-term rates to increase along with increases in short term policy rates. George added inversion has implications for financial stability and she is less concerned about its value as a predictor of a recession, while she also stated that the policy rate could be increased in a "steady, deliberate" manner as the Fed monitors the impact on the economy, inflation and demand, according to Reuters.GEOPOLITICSRUSSIA-UKRAINENEGOTIATIONS/TALKSUkrainian negotiator said peace talks between Russia and Ukraine will resume online on April 1st and Ukraine requested the countries' two leaders should meet in the latest round of talks, but Russia argued that additional work on a draft treaty was needed, according to Reuters.Russia announced a ceasefire to evacuate residents of Mariupol in which a humanitarian corridor from Mariupol to Zaporizhzhia, via the Russian-controlled port of Berdiansk, will begin at 10:00 am local time today.Ukrainian President Zelenskiy spoke to US President Biden and shared an assessment of the situation on the battlefield and at the negotiating table while they discussed specific defensive support, a new package of enhanced sanctions, macro-financial and humanitarian aid, according to Reuters.Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said Kyiv understands Crimea and Donbass issues are definitively resolved, while he noted the outcome of talks with Ukraine in Istanbul is positive progress but not yet a final outcome, according to Interfax.Ukraine spokesperson tweeted that Russia's Foreign Minister Lavrov demonstrates a misunderstanding of the negotiation process and that the issues of Crimea and Donbas will be settled for good after Ukraine restores its sovereignty over them.French Foreign Minister Le Drian said that negotiations between Russia and Ukraine have not advanced, according to Reuters.DEFENCE/MILITARYUkrainian President Zelensky said they will not make any concessions and will fight for every part of their land and all their people, while a presidential adviser noted that guarantor states include the provision of military and humanitarian assistance within three days of any aggression, according to AJABreaking.US Pentagon said the US expects Russia to refit and resupply troops to redeploy them into Ukraine and suggested it looks like Russian President Putin has not been 'fully' informed by MoD at every turn over the prior month, while it added that some Russian troops are going to Belarus, according to Reuters.US official said "newly declassified intelligence finds Russia President Putin has felt misled by the Russian military, and there is now persistent tension between Putin and the MoD", according to Voice of America.UK GCHQ Director Fleming is to say that it looks like Russian President Putin hugely misjudged the situation in Ukraine and that "Demoralised Russian soldiers in Ukraine have accidentally shot down their own aircraft, sabotaged their kit and refused to carry out orders". Furthermore, the GCHQ chief said some Russian soldiers in Ukraine have been short of weapons and morale is low, while Russia's choice to align with China after invading Ukraine has made Beijing more powerful and Russia could ultimately be squeezed out of the equation by China in the long-term on the global stage, according to Reuters.Governor of Ukraine's Donetsk region said there is continued shelling of all settlements along the demarcation line and the evacuation of civilians from Mariupol likely failed on Wednesday.ENERGY/ECONOMIC SANCTIONSWhite House said the Biden admin continues to look at options for further Russian sanctions, according to Reuters.US official said India should not 'significantly' increase Russian oil imports against prior years and that India will expose itself to a 'great risk' if it notably raises imports of Russian oil, although the US favours India purchasing Russian oil at discounts and is not against India settling trade with Russia in Rupees, according to Reuters. It was separately reported by Twitter sources including ET NOW that Russia is offering oil to India at a discount of around USD 35/bbl.European Commission is readying new sanctions against the Kremlin over Russia's invasion of Ukraine which could be ready as early as next week and the size of new measures depends on Russia's stance on gas payments in Roubles, according to Reuters citing EU sources.German government spokesperson said following a call between German Chancellor Scholz and Russian President Putin that the G7 agreement remains in which energy supplies from Russia will be paid in Euros or Dollars, as agreed in contracts. President Putin told Scholz payments would continue in Euros and go to Gazprom-bank which is not affected by sanctions where the bank would then convert money into roubles, while Scholz did not agree with this in the phone call and asked for a written explanation.Dutch PM Rutte said a peace deal with loss of Ukrainian territory and sovereignty will not automatically end sanctions.Australia is to apply a 35% tariff on all imports from Russia and Belarus, according to 10 News First.FUND/SOVEREIGN/OTHER NEWSCBR lifted the ban on short-selling on the stock market for March 31st, according to RIA.Russia and Belarus bonds are to be excluded from 11 S&P Dow Jones Indexes.Russian hackers recently tried to penetrate the networks of NATO and eastern European militaries, according to Google's Threat Analysis Group cited by Reuters.OTHERWhite House said Iran-related sanctions announced on Wednesday will delay a nuclear deal and the sanctions will remain in place even if a nuclear deal is reached, according to Reuters.Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said Russia considers the presence of US and NATO military infrastructure in countries bordering Afghanistan as unacceptable, according to Tass.APAC TRADEEQUITIESAPAC stocks traded cautiously at month-end following the weak lead from the US due to increased Russia-Ukraine scepticism and as the region digested disappointing Chinese PMI data.ASX 200 was kept afloat by outperformance in the mining and materials industries although upside was capped as the tech sector suffered from profit-taking and with energy hit by a drop in oil prices.Nikkei 225 traded indecisively amid a choppy currency and after Industrial Production data missed forecasts.Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were subdued following the weak Chinese PMI data and with the mood in stocks not helped by the US SEC chief casting doubt regarding an imminent deal to avert a delisting of Chinese stocks.European equity futures are indicative of a higher open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future up 0.5% after the cash market closed lower by 1.1% yesterday.FXDXY attempted to nurse some of the prior day's losses but with upside capped amid slightly softer yields. DXY remains sub-98.00.EUR/USD initially extended on the gains from the hot German CPI data but returned flat on late dollar reprieve.GBP/USD continued to fade yesterday's gains after taking a backseat to recent euro strength.USD/JPY has continued to pick-up from yesterday's 121.31 low and is now back on a 122 handle.Antipodeans were pressured in late trade amid the cautious mood and decline in oil prices.FIXED INCOME10yr USTs were underpinned as yields eased and with lower oil prices helping alleviate some inflationary woes.Bunds remained subdued near the 157.00 level following the recent hot inflation data from Germany.10yr JGBs were rangebound with only mild support following firmer demand at the 2yr auction.COMMODITIESWTI and Brent declined heavily on news of a potential US SPR release totalling 180mln bbls.US President Biden's administration is considering a 'massive' release of oil to combat inflation and may release up to 1mln bpd for months from the strategic reserve in which the total release could be 180mln bbls, according to Bloomberg.US President Biden will deliver remarks today at 13:30EDT/18:30BST regarding the administration's actions to reduce gas prices in the US, according to the White House. It was also reported that the US mulls permitting summertime sales of higher ethanol blends of gasoline to ease pump prices, according to Reuters sources.IEA called an emergency ministerial meeting for Friday, according to the Australian Energy Minister's office. It was later reported that IEA countries are to decide on a collective oil release, according to New Zealand's Energy Minister's officeOPEC+ JTC replaced IEA reports with Wood Mackenzie and Rystad Energy as secondary sources to assess crude oil output and conformity, according to sources cited by Reuters.Spot gold saw mild losses as the greenback found some relief from recent selling pressure.Copper prices were weaker amid the cautious risk sentiment and disappointing Chinese PMI data.CRYPTOBitcoin was indecisive with prices relatively unchanged heading into the European morning.NOTABLE APAC HEADLINESPBoC injected CNY 150bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate at 2.10% for a CNY 130bln net injection.PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.3482 vs exp. 6.3467 (prev. 6.3566)US SEC chief cast doubt regarding an imminent deal to avert delisting of Chinese stocks from US exchanges, according to Bloomberg. However, CSRC said it is continuing its discussions with US SEC on the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act and that both sides are willing to solve the audit dispute in which the outcome depends on the wisdom of both parties.Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Matsuno said sharp FX moves are not desirable, while they are closely watching how FX moves and recent JPY weakening could impact Japan's economy with a sense of urgency. Matsuno added the government will take appropriate steps on FX policies in close communication with the US and other currency authorities based on international agreements.DATA RECAPChinese NBS Manufacturing PMI (Mar) 49.5 vs. Exp. 49.9 (Prev. 50.2)Chinese NBS Non-Mfg PMI (Mar) 48.4 (Prev. 51.6)Chinese Composite PMI (Mar) 48.8 (Prev. 51.2)Japanese Industrial Production MM SA (Feb) 0.1% vs. Exp. 0.5% (Prev. -0.8%)Australian Building Approvals (Feb) 43.5% vs. Exp. 10.0% (Prev. -27.9%, Rev. -27.1%)EUROPEDATA RECAPUK Lloyds Business Barometer (Mar) 33 (Prev. 44)

European equities (Eurostoxx 55 -0.9%) trade on the backfoot as markets digest the reaction to yesterday's peace talks. Regional CPIs from Germany have seen notable jumps from priors on a M/M and Y/Y basis ahead of the mainland metric at 13:00BST/08:00EDT.The DXY has slipped below the 98.00 mark, EUR/USD has gained a firmer footing above 1.11, JPY leads in G10 FX.US equity futures are indicative of a softer open with the ES -0.4% after the S&P closed higher by 1.2% yesterday.Looking ahead, highlights include German CPI Prelim., US ADP & GDP (Final/Q4), Speeches from Fed's Barkin, Bostic & George.GEOPOLITICSRUSSIA-UKRAINENEGOTIATIONS/TALKSUkrainian President Zelenskiy said they are not reducing defensive efforts as the Russian army still has significant potential to carry out attacks, according to Reuters.Ukraine Deputy PM says three humanitarian corridors have been agreed for evacuations on Wednesday; said Ukraine had requested 97 corridors to be opened in the worst-hit areas. Ukraine Forces warn of danger of Russian ammunition exploding at Chernobyl.Ukraine Presidential Adviser says on negotiations, Ukraine has improved its position in all respects.Russian Kremlin says Ukraine has begun to put demands down on paper and be more specific which is a positive thing. Not seen anything really promising that looks like a breakthrough, there is a lot of work ahead.DEFENCE/MILITARYGovernor of Donestsk region says situation is difficult, shelling is continuing in nearly all cities around the demarcation line.ENERGY/ECONOMIC SANCTIONS & UPDATESGermany declares "Early Warning" stage of gas supply emergency to prepare for possible escalation by Russia; Economy Minister says no current gas supply shortages, gas supplies are safeguarded at the moment. Will not accept any gas contract breaches by Russia. German gas storage is at around 25% capacity - says key question is how full gas capacities will be in the Autumn. EU countries must deal with gas supply issues together.US State Department warned that Moscow may detain Americans in Russia, while it issued a Level 4 travel advisory for Ukraine and stated 'do not travel' to Ukraine, according to AFP.Russian grain exporters reportedly may request payment in Roubles, according to Kommersant.Russian Kremlin says that the idea from lawmakers of asking other nations to pay for a wide range of Russian exports in RUB should be worked on. Will not immediately demand a switch to gas payments in RUB. Changes will be gradual.OTHERSaudi-led coalition announced it is halting military operations in Yemen for the month of Ramadan to help negotiations succeed, with operations halted from this Wednesday, according to the Saudi state news agency.China confirms China-EU summit to take place virtually on April 1st; President Xi and Premier Li will attendEUROPEAN TRADEEQUITIESAPAC stocks traded mostly positive following the strong handover from the US. Nikkei 225 was pressured by weaker than expected Retail Sales and as the Yen nursed losses. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were underpinned after continued PBoC liquidity efforts and a deluge of earnings.European equities (Eurostoxx 50 -0.8%) are mostly lower as optimism from Ukraine/Russia updates yesterday fades and inflation concerns were further bolstered by regional German CPIs. FTSE 100 (+0.1%) remains afloat following gains in Energy and Basic Resources names.Click here for more detail.FXYen repatriation offsets BoJ yield intervention to keep recovery intact - Usd/Jpy extends sharp retreat to circa 121.31 from 125.10 on Monday.Euro inflated by significantly stronger than expected preliminary CPI prints and further EGB/UST yield convergence - Eur/Usd takes out recent peak and probes Fib retracement in decent option expiry zone before fading around 1.1160.Kiwi rebounds on strong building approvals and improvements in NBNZ survey readings - Nzd/Usd firmly above 0.6950 and Aud/Nzd back under 1.0800.Dollar drifts ahead of ADP and more Fed commentary, with DXY under 98.000.Click here for more detail.Notable FX Expiries, NY Cut:EUR/USD: 1.1000 (2.44BN), 1.1050-60 (1.8BN), 1.1100 (2.17BN), 1.1150-55 (1.36BN), 1.1195-00 (1.64BN)USD/JPY: 122.00-05 (690M), 122.50 (250M), 122.90-00 (1.0BN)Click here for more detail.FIXED INCOMEHot inflation readings undermine EZ bonds and prompt more convergence vs Treasuries and GiltsBoJ steps up defence of YCC via scheduled and unplanned JGB purchases.UST curve tips after mixed 7 year auction ahead of ADP as a proxy for NFP.Click here for more detail.COMMODITIESWTI and Brent have continued to pare back some of the aggressive selling pressure seen during yesterday's session.From a technical standpoint, May'22 WTI has made it back up to USD 107.30 vs. yesterday's peak of USD 107.84, whilst June'22 Brent sits at 113.05 vs. yesterday's peak of USD 114.83.US Energy Inventory Data (bbls): Crude -3.0mln (exp. -1.0mln), Gasoline -1.4mln (exp. -1.7mln), Distillate -0.2 (exp. -1.6mln), Cushing -1.1mln.US House Energy and Commerce Committee is to hold a hearing next week with six oil company executives regarding rising gas prices, according to Reuters.Germany declares "Early Warning" stage of gas supply emergency to prepare for possible escalation by Russia; says no current gas supply shortages.India is to increase natural gas prices for April-Sept to USD 6.10/mmbtu from USD 2.90mmbtu currently, according to Reuters sources.Spot gold traded sideways and only marginally benefitted from the weaker greenback.Click here for more detail.NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINESECB's Lagarde says in the short-term will face higher inflation and slower growth. The longer the war goes on, the higher the economic costs will be. Incoming data supports inflation outlook and will conclude APP in Q3.ECB's Kazimir says that unless their is a dramatic escalation in the conflict in Ukraine, first rate increase might come towards the end of 2022.ECB's Muller says that APP could cease in Q3 and a rate hike could come after that.BoE Deputy Governor Broadbent says that it is doubtful whether the UK has experienced an external hit to real national income on this scale. In the near term in the difficult combination of even higher inflation but weaker domestic demand and output growth.DATA RECAPUK BRC Shop Price Index YY (Mar) 2.1% (Prev. 1.8%)EU Consumer Confid. Final (Mar) -18.7 vs. Exp. -18.7 (Prev. -18.7)EU Cons Infl Expec (Mar) 59.8 (Prev. 37.7)EU Selling Price Expec (Mar) 58.1 (Prev. 49.8)Spanish HICP Flash YY (Mar) 9.8% vs. Exp. 8.1% (Prev. 7.6%)Regional CPIs from Germany have seen notable jumps from priors on a M/M and Y/Y basis ahead of the mainland metric at 13:00BST/08:00EDT.NOTABLE US HEADLINES:Fed's Bostic (2024 voter) said the Ukraine war is impacting inflation and increases uncertainty which is a risk for demand. Bostic stated the Fed is withdrawing policy support to allow the economy to stand on its own but added it could harm the economy if the Fed moves too quickly, while he reiterated that he favours six hikes for 2022.Click here for the US Early Morning NoteCRYPTOBitcoin is modestly softer but holding on to USD 47k status.APAC TRADEEQUITIESAPAC stocks traded mostly positive amid optimism from Russia-Ukraine talks in which negotiators discussed a ceasefire and with Russia to scale down military activity in Kyiv and Chernihiv, although the US was unconvinced.ASX 200 gained on continued tech strength and with consumer stocks helped on Budget support measures.Nikkei 225 fell beneath the 28,000 level after weaker than expected Retail Sales and as the Yen nursed losses.Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were underpinned after continued PBoC liquidity efforts and amid a deluge of earnings including from large banks in which Bank of China and China Construction Bank both topped estimates.NOTABLE APAC HEADLINESPBoC injected CNY 150bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate at 2.10% for a CNY 130bln net injection.PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.3566 vs exp. 6.3478 (prev. 6.3640)Chinese city of Xuzhou has declared a three-day lockdown from WednesdayBoJ Governor Kuroda said he discussed a post-COVID global economy, Russia and Ukraine with PM Kishida, as well as talked about the economy and financial markets in Japan and abroad with the PM. Kuroda told Kishida FX moves should reflect economic fundamentals but they did not discuss anything in particular on FX and don't think that a monetary adjustment would have a direct impact on currencies. Furthermore, Kuroda said the yen is weakening but is driven partly by buying the dollar for energy imports and with higher US rates also a factor.BoJ announced to buy JPY 600bln in 3yr-5yr JGBs, JPY 725bln in 5yr-10yr JGBs, JPY 150bln in 10yr-25yr JGBs, JPY 100bln in 25yr+ JGBs and JPY 60bln in inflation-indexed JGBs, while it also offered to buy an unlimited amount of 10yr JGBs at a fixed rate of 0.25%. The BoJ later announced an emergency operation to buy JPY 500bln in 5yr-10yr JGBs, JPY 100bln in 10yr-25yr JGBs and JPY 50bln in 25yr+ JGBs, according to Reuters.Japan former currency diplomat Shinohara says yen decline reflects economic fundamentals to some extent, moves not very fast; meaningless for Tokyo to conduct yen-buying intervention; intervention will not have lasting effect in reversing weak yen.DATA RECAPJapanese Retail Sales YY (Feb) -0.8% vs. Exp. -0.3% (Prev. 1.6%, Rev. 1.1%)New Zealand Building Consents (Feb) 10.5% (Prev. -9.2%, Rev. -8.7%)New Zealand NBNZ Business Outlook* (Mar) -41.9% (Prev. -51.8%)New Zealand NBNZ Own Activity* (Mar) 3.3% (Prev. -2.2%)

APAC stocks traded mostly positive following the strong lead from the US which was spurred by Ukraine/Russia optimism. A western official said they haven't seen anything so far that has demonstrated Russia is particularly serious about peace talks.The DXY remains subdued following yesterday's declines, USD/JPY has continued to fade recent gains. European equity futures are indicative of a softer open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future down 0.4% after the cash market closed higher by 3.0% yesterday.Looking ahead, highlights include German CPI Prelim, US ADP & GDP (Final/Q4), Speeches from Fed's Barkin, Bostic & George, ECB's Lagarde, BoE's Broadbent, Supply from Italy.US TRADEUS stocks finished positive with risk appetite spurred by optimism post-Russia/Ukraine talks and after Russia suggested it would be withdrawing some troops, while both sides alluded to prospects of a Putin-Zelensky meeting.S&P 500 +1.2% at 4,633, Nasdaq 100 +1.7% at 15,239, Dow Jones +1.0% at 35,294, Russell 2000 +2.7% at 2,133.NOTABLE US HEADLINESFed's Bullard (2022 voter, 50bp dissenter) reiterated that he favours raising the FFR to 3% by year-end and is in favour of implementing a plan to quickly reduce the size of the Fed's balance sheet, while he added the extent and pace of these actions can be adjusted if macroeconomic conditions evolve differently than what they expect, according to the St Louis Fed.Fed's Harker (temp voter) said the Fed 'collectively underestimated' impact fiscal spending would have on inflation and he would not take a 50bps rate hike off the table for the next meeting but is not committing to it either. Harker stated that developments in China is "another wrench" in the supply chain and could make a 50bps hike more likely appropriate, while he noted a balance sheet reduction could add the equivalent of two quarter-point rate increases and that they can move methodically to a neutral rate of around 2.5% then assess what more may be required, according to Reuters.Fed's Bostic (2024 voter) said the Ukraine war is impacting inflation and increases uncertainty which is a risk for demand. Bostic stated the Fed is withdrawing policy support to allow the economy to stand on its own but added it could harm the economy if the Fed moves too quickly, while he reiterated that he favours six hikes for 2022.US Senate voted to move the Fed nomination of Lisa Cook forward to a confirmation vote. (Newswires)GEOPOLITICSRUSSIA-UKRAINENEGOTIATIONS/TALKSUkrainian President Zelenskiy said signals from Russia talks could be called positive but do not drown out the explosions of Russian shells and they see no reason to trust words from "certain representatives of a power that continues to fight for our destruction". Zelensky also said they are not reducing defensive efforts as the Russian army still has significant potential to carry out attacks, according to Reuters.US President Biden said "we'll see" about Russia's de-escalation statement and will have to see if Russia follows through but the US will continue to keep strong sanctions and help the Ukraine military, according to Reuters.French President Macron discussed the Ukraine situation with Russian President Putin in a phone call and Macron told Putin paying gas contracts in Roubles was not possible, according to a French Presidency official. Furthermore, Macron brought up the topic of carrying out a humanitarian mission for Mariupol with Putin although conditions are not in place for now and Russia's position on a humanitarian mission for Mariupol remains tough but Putin told Macron he would think about it, according to Reuters.DEFENCE/MILITARYUS Department of Defense confirmed there has been some movement by small amounts of Russian forces away from Kyiv but reiterated this is repositioning and not a withdrawal, while it added that Russia is spinning a lack of progress as the next steps and the threat to Kyiv isn't over despite Russian talk. Furthermore, it stated that Russian President Putin's goals still stretch beyond the Donbass and that a small number of Russian troops leaving Kyiv are moving north for now and are to be used elsewhere in Ukraine, according to Reuters.US official said the US believes any movement of Russian forces from around Kyiv is a "redeployment, not a withdrawal" and said the world should be prepared for a continuation of major offensives in other areas in Ukraine as Russia is shifting gears, according to Reuters.A western official said they haven't seen anything so far that has demonstrated Russia is particularly serious about peace talks and seems to be more of a tactical exercise to play for time, according to Reuters.US is mulling sending another USD 500mln of humanitarian aid to Ukraine which could be used for military purposes, according to Bloomberg.ENERGY/ECONOMIC SANCTIONSWhite House said they will continue to intensify sanctions on Russia and they are not going to run out of options anytime soon, according to Reuters.Russia is studying the possibility of importing equipment for the fuel and energy complex through friendly countries, according to Interfax.FUND/SOVEREIGN/OTHER NEWSUS State Department warned that Moscow may detain Americans in Russia, while it issued a Level 4 travel advisory for Ukraine and stated 'do not travel' to Ukraine, according to AFP.Russian grain exporters reportedly may request payment in Roubles, according to Kommersant.OTHERSaudi-led coalition announced it is halting military operations in Yemen for the month of Ramadan to help negotiations succeed, with operations halted from this Wednesday, according to the Saudi state news agency.APAC TRADEEQUITIESAPAC stocks traded mostly positive amid optimism from Russia-Ukraine talks in which negotiators discussed a ceasefire and with Russia to scale down military activity in Kyiv and Chernihiv, although the US was unconvinced.ASX 200 gained on continued tech strength and with consumer stocks helped on Budget support measures.Nikkei 225 fell beneath the 28,000 level after weaker than expected Retail Sales and as the Yen nursed losses.Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were underpinned after continued PBoC liquidity efforts and amid a deluge of earnings including from large banks in which Bank of China and China Construction Bank both topped estimates.US equity futures took a breather following yesterday's advances.European equity futures are indicative of a softer open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future down 0.4% after the cash market closed higher by 3.0% yesterday.FXDXY remained subdued after the prior day's retreat beneath the 99.00 level as yields eased and with risk sentiment underpinned by hopes surrounding the Russia-Ukraine talks.EUR/USD strengthened above 1.1100 amid hopes of a de-escalation in Ukraine.GBP/USD lacked direction after yesterday's choppy mood with the pair stuck around the 1.3100 level.USD/JPY continued to fade recent advances with the pair slipping to a low of 121.31 overnight vs. 125.10 on Monday.Antipodeans benefitted from the risk tone with NZD outperforming on cross-related flows and encouraging data which showed an improvement in Building Permits and Business Activity Outlook.SNB's Vice Chair Zurbruegg said vulnerabilities have increased in the swiss real estate market and Swiss apartments are overvalued by 10-35%, while the SNB will monitor developments in the real estate market, according to Reuters.FIXED INCOME10yr USTs extended on the prior day's gains as yields eased and with the recent declines in oil prices helping alleviate some of the inflationary concerns. 2s10s inverted (briefly) for the first time since 2019, whilst a mixed 7yr auction had little follow-throughBunds continued to recoup recent losses to test the 158.00 level to the upside.10yr JGBs were underpinned after the BoJ boosted today's regular buying operations for various maturities and conducted a special operation for unlimited JGBs, while it later announced emergency purchases to cap yields.COMMODITIESWTI and Brent nursed the losses from yesterday's intraday drop after Ukraine/Russia optimism weighed heavily on oil, with prices well of their lows amid skepticism from the US on Russia scaling down operations.US Energy Inventory Data (bbls): Crude -3.0mln (exp. -1.0mln), Gasoline -1.4mln (exp. -1.7mln), Distillate -0.2 (exp. -1.6mln), Cushing -1.1mln.US House Energy and Commerce Committee is to hold a hearing next week with six oil company executives regarding rising gas prices, according to Reuters.Spot gold traded sideways and only marginally benefitted from the weaker greenback.Copper was higher amid the constructive risk tone.CRYPTOBitcoin was choppy overnight with prices relatively flat heading into the European morning.NOTABLE APAC HEADLINESPBoC injected CNY 150bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate at 2.10% for a CNY 130bln net injection.PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.3566 vs exp. 6.3478 (prev. 6.3640)Chinese city of Xuzhou has declared a three-day lockdown from WednesdayBoJ Governor Kuroda said he discussed a post-COVID global economy, Russia and Ukraine with PM Kishida, as well as talked about the economy and financial markets in Japan and abroad with the PM. Kuroda told Kishida FX moves should reflect economic fundamentals but they did not discuss anything in particular on FX and don't think that a monetary adjustment would have a direct impact on currencies. Furthermore, Kuroda said the yen is weakening but is driven partly by buying the dollar for energy imports and with higher US rates also a factor.BoJ announced to buy JPY 600bln in 3yr-5yr JGBs, JPY 725bln in 5yr-10yr JGBs, JPY 150bln in 10yr-25yr JGBs, JPY 100bln in 25yr+ JGBs and JPY 60bln in inflation-indexed JGBs, while it also offered to buy an unlimited amount of 10yr JGBs at a fixed rate of 0.25%. The BoJ later announced an emergency operation to buy JPY 500bln in 5yr-10yr JGBs, JPY 100bln in 10yr-25yr JGBs and JPY 50bln in 25yr+ JGBs, according to Reuters.DATA RECAPJapanese Retail Sales YY (Feb) -0.8% vs. Exp. -0.3% (Prev. 1.6%, Rev. 1.1%)New Zealand Building Consents (Feb) 10.5% (Prev. -9.2%, Rev. -8.7%)New Zealand NBNZ Business Outlook* (Mar) -41.9% (Prev. -51.8%)New Zealand NBNZ Own Activity* (Mar) 3.3% (Prev. -2.2%)EUROPENOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINESUK ministers are reportedly mulling a fourth delay of the introduction of full checks on imports from the EU in a move to tackle trade friction and the cost of living crisis, according to FT citing officials briefed on talks.DATA RECAPUK BRC Shop Price Index YY (Mar) 2.1% (Prev. 1.8%)

European bourses, Euro Stoxx 50 +2.2%, are firmer across the board in a continuation of the APAC/US handover as Russian-Ukraine talks begin.Risk-on that was exacerbated by Ukrainian negotiator Podoliak noted that a ceasefire is being discussed with Russia adding a press conference is to be expected later.Updates which further sapped geopolitical premia from crude benchmarks.DXY is softer, with EUR elevated amid pronounced yield upside as Bund 10yr nears 70bp; USD/JPY sub-124.00.Stateside, US equity futures are firmer but magnitudes more contained with Fed speak/supply ahead.Looking ahead, highlights include Speeches from Fed's Williams, Bostic & Harker & supply from the US.As of 11:15BST/06:15ETLOOKING AHEADSpeeches from Fed's Williams, Bostic & Harker & supply from the US.Click here for the Week Ahead preview.GEOPOLITICSRUSSIA-UKRAINENEGOTIATIONS/TALKSUkraine and Russia peace discussions in Turkey have begun, according to Ukrainian TV. (08:27BST/03:37ET).Top Russian Negotiator Medinsky says a statement following Russian-Ukraine talks will occur in several hours, via Reuters citing Tass. Subsequently, Russia's Kremlin says we will know today or tomorrow if peace talks are promising; says dialogue between US and Russia is still needed; relations cannot be unaffected by personal insults.Ukraine negotiator Podoliak says that a ceasefire is being discussed, main issue is security guarantees followed by humanitarian issues.Russian Defence Minister Shoigu says the main task of their Ukraine military operation is the liberation of Donbass, via Ifx. Main task of the first phase is complete.Turkish President Erdogan says we have entered a phase where Ukraine/Russia discussions need to yield concrete results. Progress at the Istanbul meeting will pave the way for a Presidential meeting, which Turkey could also host.Ukraine Deputy PM says they are aiming to open three humanitarian corridors on Tuesday, including for private vehicles from Mariupol.France President Macron will speak with Russian President Putin later today; no time confirmed.DEFENCE/MILITARYKremlin spokesman Peskov said Russia would use nuclear weapons only when there is a threat to the existence of the state, while Peskov added that comments by US President Biden on Russian President Putin remaining in power were quite alarming and a personal insult. Furthermore, Peskov said Russia will not send gas without payment and that Russian troops are only shelling military installations, not houses and apartments.UK Ministry of Defence tweeted that Russian private military organisation the Wagner Group has deployed to eastern Ukraine with the group expected to deploy more than 1,000 mercenaries including senior leaders of the group for combat operations.ENERGY/ECONOMIC SANCTIONSRussian Kremlin reiterated that gas payments must be made in Roubles, Russia will not export gas for free.Australia announced sanctions and travel bans on 14 Russians, while it was separately reported that Australia imposed sanctions on 39 Russians linked to the Magnitsky case, according to Sputnik.Japan widened the scope of Russian sanctions to include luxury items such as premium cars and precious stones, according to Reuters.Russian Finance Ministry says it has fully met the liability on servicing the 2035 Eurobond, made a USD 102mln coupon payment.EUROPEAN TRADEEQUITIESEuropean bourses, Euro Stoxx 50 +2.2%, are firmer across the board in a continuation of the APAC/US handover as Russian-Ukraine talks begin.Upside that has been exacerbated by remarks from both Ukraine and Russian officials.US futures are firmer across the board, ES +0.4%, though magnitudes more contained with Fed speak and supply ahead.Click here for more detail.FXEuro elevated as EGB yields ramp up again and hopes rise regarding a Russia-Ukraine peace resolution, EUR/USD above 1.1000 and a series of decent option expiries stretching between 1.0950 and the round number.Buck caught amidst buoyant risk sentiment and hawkish Fed vibe, DXY sub-99.000 after narrowly missing test of 2022 peak on Monday.Yen maintains recovery momentum amidst more MoF verbal intervention and demand for month/fy end, USD/JPY under 124.00 vs 125.00+ peak yesterday.Franc flounders as SNB ponders direct repo indexing to main policy rate, USD/CHF around 0.9360 and EUR/CHF over 1.0300.Aussie gets retail therapy before fiscal reality via revised budget and Sterling unsettled by mixed BoE consumer credit, mortgage lending and approvals; AUD/USD straddles 0.7500 and Cable losing sight of 1.3100.Australian 2022-23 Federal Budget: Forecasts AUD 78bln budget deficit vs. AUD 98.9bln projected in December. Click here for more detail.Click here for more detail.Notable FX Expiries, NY Cut:EUR/USD: 1.0900 (722M), 1.0950-60 (1.3BN), 1.0975-80 (1.33BN), 1.1000 (2.78BN), 1.1100 (956M)Click here for more detail.FIXED INCOMEDebt rout continues as markets perceive progress towards Russia/Ukraine truce from latest round of talks.US Treasuries also conceding more ground for the final leg of this week's auction remit via USD 47bln 7 year notes.Bunds breaching yet another round number to the downside at 157.00 as the benchmark German yield approaches 70 bp.Click here for more detail.COMMODITIESCrude benchmarks have experienced an erosion of earlier upside amid multiple, but generally constructive, updates from Ukraine and Russia.Specifically, Ukrainian negotiator Podoliak noted that a ceasefire is being discussed with Russia adding a press conference is to be expected later.Albeit, the morning's action has not been sufficient to spark a test of the overnight parameters for WTI and Brent.Spot gold/silver are pressured once more, generally speaking in-fitting with other havens, exacerbated by the aforementioned risk-on move.Click here for more detail.NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINESUK is interested in creating joint first ministers in Northern Ireland as part of an effort to improve the functioning of the devolved government, according to FT.ECB's Lane has warned that Europe "may have to get used to higher prices". He also expressed "major concern" over declines in consumer and confidence sentiment indices, according to Politico.DATA RECAPGerman GfK Consumer Sentiment (Apr) -15.5 vs. Exp. -14.0 (Prev. -8.1, Rev. -8.5)NOTABLE US HEADLINES:US Economic Adviser Rouse said the US does not expect a food shortage and sees inflation to ease this year into next, according to Reuters.US Moderate Democrat Senator Manchin said he doesn't support taxing unrealised gains of the wealthy and opposes reversing fossil fuel tax benefits, according to Bloomberg.US Senate voted 68-28 to pass the USD 52bln chips subsidy bill which paves the way for talks in an attempt to reach a compromise with the House, according to Reuters.US DoJ backs legislation targeting big tech such as Amazon (AMZN), Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL), according to WSJClick here for the US Early Morning NoteCRYPTOBitcoin is slightly softer overall, but remains well-within and towards the top-end of Monday's parameters.Environmental groups are pushing for a reduction in Bitcoin's energy use, according to WSJ.APAC TRADEEQUITIESAPAC stocks traded mostly higher following the gains in the US where growth stocks spearheaded a recovery and with a decline in oil prices conducive for risk.ASX 200 was led by strength in tech and consumer stocks heading into the Budget announcement.Nikkei 225 gained with Japan to compile economic measures by the end of next month.Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. traded mixed with the mainland index faltering amid the ongoing lockdown in Shanghai and despite the announcement of supportive measures by the local government.NOTABLE APAC HEADLINESPBoC injected CNY 150bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate at 2.10% for a CNY 130bln net injectionPBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.3640 vs exp. 6.3601 (prev. 6.3732)Shanghai will implement large-scale VAT credits and refunds, as well as reduce or exempt rents for SMEs. Shanghai also announced to strengthen financial guarantee support for SMEs and eligible companies, while it is to offer CNY 140bln in tax savings to corporations this year, according to Reuters and Global Times.Japanese PM Kishida said the government ordered a stimulus compilation by the end of April and Economic Minister Yamagiwa said they will first prioritise providing prompt support by utilising emergency reserves, according to Reuters.Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Matsuno said currency market stability is important and that they need to watch recent moves closely, while Finance Minister Suzuki said they will closely watch market moves to avoid negative JPY weakness, according to Reuters.Japan's Steel Industry Head says the plunging JPY vs USD poses serious challenge to domestic manufacturers, as some industries are yet to overcome deflation pressure, via Reuters.BoJ offered to buy an unlimited amount of 5yr-10yr JGBs at a fixed rate on two occasions today, according to Reuters.BoJ Summary of Opinions from the March meeting stated that rising inflation could pressure overseas economic growth and there were worries of the risk uncertainty regarding situation in Ukraine could weigh on Japan's economy. BoJ stated that CPI is likely to accelerate from April and may move around 2% for some time, while it also noted that they must maintain monetary easing as Japan is unlikely to see inflation continuously exceed 2%.DATA RECAPAustralian Retail Sales MM Final (Feb) 1.8% vs. Exp. 1.0% (Prev. 1.8%)

APAC stocks traded mostly higher following the gains in the US where growth stocks spearheaded a recovery.Russia and Ukraine could pause hostilities as part of a deal which would see Ukraine abandon its push for NATO membership, according to FT.European equity futures are indicative of a higher open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future up 0.8% after the cash market closed higher by 0.5% yesterday.DXY holds onto 99.0 status, EUR/USD remains on a 1.09 handle, USD/JPY retreated back below 124.00.Looking ahead, highlights include German GfK, Speeches from Fed's Williams, Bostic & Harker, ECB's Kazimir, 7yr supply from the US.US TRADEUS stocks finished positive as a growth/mega cap rally helped markets shrug off the initial choppy mood, while upcoming Russia-Ukraine talks and a decline in oil prices facilitated the risk appetite.S&P 500 +0.7% at 4,576, Nasdaq 100 +1.6% at 14,987, Dow Jones +0.3% at 34,956, Russell 2000 Flat at 2,078.NOTABLE US HEADLINESUS Economic Adviser Rouse said the US does not expect a food shortage and sees inflation to ease this year into next, according to Reuters.US Moderate Democrat Senator Manchin said he doesn't support taxing unrealised gains of the wealthy and opposes reversing fossil fuel tax benefits, according to Bloomberg.US House Budget Committee Chairman US official Yarmuth said Congress may need to raise the debt limit around October 1st, according to Reuters.US Senate voted 68-28 to pass the USD 52bln chips subsidy bill which paves the way for talks in an attempt to reach a compromise with the House, according to Reuters.US DoJ backs legislation targeting big tech such as Amazon (AMZN), Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL), according to WSJGEOPOLITICSRUSSIA-UKRAINENEGOTIATIONS/TALKSRussia is no longer reportedly requesting Ukraine be “denazified” in ceasefire talks and is prepared to let Kyiv join the EU if it remains militarily non-aligned as part of ongoing ceasefire negotiations, according to FT citing sources. Furthermore, the two sides are reportedly discussing a pause in hostilities as part of a possible deal that would see Ukraine abandon its push for a NATO membership in exchange for security guarantees and the prospect to join the EU although a deal is not yet finalised, according to the FT sources.US President Biden said he is not walking anything back on comments about Russian President Putin and that he was expressing moral outrage but he does not think the comments complicate diplomacy and he is not concerned his remarks could escalate the conflict, according to Bloomberg.DEFENCE/MILITARYKremlin spokesman Peskov said Russia would use nuclear weapons only when there is a threat to the existence of the state, while Peskov added that comments by US President Biden on Russian President Putin remaining in power were quite alarming and a personal insult. Furthermore, Peskov said Russia will not send gas without payment and that Russian troops are only shelling military installations, not houses and apartments.UK Ministry of Defence tweeted that Russian private military organisation the Wagner Group has deployed to eastern Ukraine with the group expected to deploy more than 1,000 mercenaries including senior leaders of the group for combat operations.ENERGY/ECONOMIC SANCTIONSAustralia announced sanctions and travel bans on 14 Russians, while it was separately reported that Australia imposed sanctions on 39 Russians linked to the Magnitsky case, according to Sputnik.Japan widened the scope of Russian sanctions to include luxury items such as premium cars and precious stones, according to Reuters.APAC TRADEEQUITIESAPAC stocks traded mostly higher following the gains in the US where growth stocks spearheaded a recovery and with a decline in oil prices conducive for risk.ASX 200 was led by strength in tech and consumer stocks heading into the Budget announcement.Nikkei 225 gained with Japan to compile economic measures by the end of next month.Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. traded mixed with the mainland index faltering amid the ongoing lockdown in Shanghai and despite the announcement of supportive measures by the local government.US equity futures plateaued following Monday's rebound.European equity futures are indicative of a higher open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future up 0.8% after the cash market closed higher by 0.5% yesterday.FXDXY was rangebound near the 99.00 level after running out of steam on its approach towards YTD highs.EUR/USD eked marginal gains and eyes resistance near the 1.1000 handle.GBP/USD is off lows but remained lacklustre after recent comments from BoE Governor Bailey.USD/JPY continued to pull back overnight after Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki noted they will closely watch market moves to avoid negative JPY weakness.Antipodeans were lacklustre after the recent downside in commodities.FIXED INCOME10yr USTs traded subdued after yesterday's choppy mood but are off the prior day's lows after it found support at the 121.00 level, while the 2yr/10yr gap was at its narrowest in two years.Bunds remained pressured steadily prodded beneath the 158.00 level.10yr JGBs were lacklustre despite the BoJ's two special operations today for unlimited JGBs and with prices not helped by a weaker 40yr auction as Japanese yields hit multi-year highs.COMMODITIESWTI and Brent remained subdued after yesterday's 9% decline as the lockdown in Shanghai weighs on the demand outlook and with upcoming Ukraine-Russia meetings helping ease the geopolitical risk premia.UAE Energy Minister said they are not happy with higher prices but cannot oversupply the market, while he added that increasing production will only be in a measured way and through a consensus among OPEC+ members, according to Reuters.Spot gold traded flat and mirrored the uneventful price action in the greenback.Copper took a breather following its recent rebound.CRYPTOBitcoin saw mild gains overnight with prices back above the 47,000 level.Environmental groups are pushing for a reduction in Bitcoin's energy use, according to WSJ.NOTABLE APAC HEADLINESPBoC injected CNY 150bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate at 2.10% for a CNY 130bln net injectionPBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.3640 vs exp. 6.3601 (prev. 6.3732)Shanghai will implement large-scale VAT credits and refunds, as well as reduce or exempt rents for SMEs. Shanghai also announced to strengthen financial guarantee support for SMEs and eligible companies, while it is to offer CNY 140bln in tax savings to corporations this year, according to Reuters and Global Times.Japanese PM Kishida said the government ordered a stimulus compilation by the end of April and Economic Minister Yamagiwa said they will first prioritise providing prompt support by utilising emergency reserves, according to Reuters.Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Matsuno said currency market stability is important and that they need to watch recent moves closely, while Finance Minister Suzuki said they will closely watch market moves to avoid negative JPY weakness, according to Reuters.BoJ offered to buy an unlimited amount of 5yr-10yr JGBs at a fixed rate on two occasions today, according to Reuters.BoJ Summary of Opinions from the March meeting stated that rising inflation could pressure overseas economic growth and there were worries of the risk uncertainty regarding situation in Ukraine could weigh on Japan's economy. BoJ stated that CPI is likely to accelerate from April and may move around 2% for some time, while it also noted that they must maintain monetary easing as Japan is unlikely to see inflation continuously exceed 2%.DATA RECAPAustralian Retail Sales MM Final * (Feb) 1.8% vs. Exp. 1.0% (Prev. 1.8%)EUROPENOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINESUK is interested in creating joint first ministers in Northern Ireland as part of an effort to improve the functioning of the devolved government, according to FT.ECB's Lane has warned that Europe "may have to get used to higher prices". He also expressed "major concern" over declines in consumer and confidence sentiment indices, according to Politico.