Podcasts about jgbs

BoJ kept rates unchanged at 0.50%, as expected, but surprised markets with the announcement to begin selling ETF and J-REIT holdings.European bourses are mostly higher whilst US equity futures are flat.USD extends its winning streak, GBP underperforms and is pressured by woeful borrowing data, which puts added pressure on UK Chancellor Reeves.USTs are slightly lower awaiting Fed speak, JGBs hit on the BoJ, Gilts lag after concerning borrowing data.Crude is on the backfoot, whilst Spot gold is firmer awaiting the Trump-Xi meeting.Looking ahead, Canadian Retail Sales (Jul), Quad Witching, Trump-Xi phone call. Speakers including Fed's Daly, Miran, & Former Fed President Bullard.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Global equity futures are modestly mixed; Anglo American & Teck merge to create a USD 50bln mining giant.USD is a little lower whilst JPY soars amid hawkish BoJ reports.OAT-Bund 10yr spread a little wider in the aftermath of French PM Bayrou's removal, JGBs hit by BoJ sources.BoJ reportedly sees some chance of hiking this year, despite the political situation, via Bloomberg citing sources; likely to keep rates unchanged on September 19thCrude rebounds and metals non-committal awaiting the next impetus.Looking ahead, US NFP Prelim. Benchmark Revisions, Apple Event, Comments from BoE's Breeden, Supply from the US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Russian Kremlin's Ushakov says Alaska summit will begin at 11:30 local time on Friday (20:30 BST/15:30 EDT)European bourses are modestly firmer, US futures hold around the unchanged mark into PPI.USD sell-off pauses for breath ahead of PPI, Yen rises on Bessent BoJ comments.JGBs lag as Japan reacts to Bessent, USTs await PPI.Crude ekes mild gains as attention turns to Trump/Putin.Looking ahead, US PPI (Jul), Jobless Claims, Speakers include Fed's Barkin. Earnings from Applied Materials.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

I'm excited to share something I've negotiated for you guys: you can now get a Glint Card for FREE (normally $10) just by registering with my code ‘SNIDER' or filling out the form on the page I've linked below.All the details and more about Glint are at https://partner.glintpay.com/eurodollar/. Don't miss out!The macro situation is worse this summer compared to last summer, so where's Japan's carry trade? If the July 2024 jobs report provoked a violent financial backlash, you'd think the July 2025 version would have, too. The fact it didn't points to several key developments, important warnings from JPY and JGBs. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUThis video was sponsored by Glint. Graphic representations of value are for illustrative purposes only. The Glint Debit card is issued by Sutton Bank, Member FDIC. The sale, purchase and storage of precious metals are offered by Glint, and not Sutton Bank. Your investment in precious metals through Glint is:-Not insured by the FDIC.-Not a deposit or other obligation of, or guaranteed by, Sutton Bank.-Subject to investment risks, including the possible risk of loss of the principal amount invested.All investments involve risk, including possible loss of principal. The value of precious metals is affected by many economic factors, including but not limited to the current market price, demand, perceived scarcity, and quality of the precious metal.  Precious metals can increase or decrease in value. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. As such, investing in precious metals may not be suitable for everyone.Glint Pay Inc. is a U.S. based authorized Card Program Manager, not a bank. Banking services are provided by our partner Sutton Bank, Member FDIC. Glint Pay Inc. employs effective Anti-Money Laundering (AML), Countering the Financing of Terrorism (CFT), and fraud prevention systems and controls to mitigate and combat risks.

BoJ maintained rates as expected, raised growth and inflation outlook. Continued to note uncertainty over trade; Ueda said, no large change to central outlook that growth pace will slow down and underlying inflation stalls.US President Trump announced that South Korea will be subject to a 15% tariff and make USD 350bln in investments in the US.European bourses opened higher but have waned off best levels, NQ outperforms after stunning earnings from META +12% & MSFT +8%.Ongoing USD rally pauses for breath ahead of PCE, JPY pressured after BoJ Governor Ueda.JGBs boosted by Ueda, USTs towards the post-Powell lows into PCE.Crude lacklustre, Gold benefits from haven flows & copper dented by Trump tariff details.Looking ahead, US Challenger Layoffs, PCE (Jun), Jobless Claims, Employment Wages, Chicago PMI, Atlanta Fed GDPNow, Canadian GDP, SARB Policy Announcement.Earnings from Apple, Amazon, Strategy, Coinbase, Reddit, Riot, Cloudflare, Roku, CVS, Roblox, AbbVie, Norwegian Cruise Line, Cigna, Howmet Aerospace, Mastercard & PG&E.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump announced trade deals with the Philippines, Indonesia and Japan, with the latter involving a USD 550bln investment in the US and 15% tariffs for Japanese goods.Japanese PM Ishiba is likely to announce resignation as early as this month, according to Yomiuri – reports which he later pushed back on.European bourses benefit from the US-Japan trade deal; RTY continues to outperform.USD is flat, Antipodeans are the G10 outperformers whilst the EUR lags a touch; JPY choppy on US-Japan trade deal and reports surrounding PM Ishiba.JGBs slump on trade updates, peers elsewhere lower given the risk tone and into supply.Crude complex choppy awaiting fresh catalysts, XAU takes a breather following recent upside.Looking ahead, US Existing Home Sales, Supply from the US. Earnings from Tesla, Alphabet, ServiceNow, IBM, Chipotle, GE Vernova, Freeport, AT&T, Thermo Fisher Scientific, Lamb Weston, Infosys, Moody's, CME & Hilton.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

White House Press Secretary Leavitt said they could see more tariff letters for August 1st.European bourses are in the red and currently trade at session troughs, US equity futures also incrementally lower.DXY is flat awaiting fresh catalysts, whilst Antipodeans lag given the risk-tone.JGBs react to the election, bonds elsewhere have a bearish bias, Gilts lag.Crude moves in lockstep with risk while base metals remain cushioned.Looking ahead, US Richmond Fed Index, NBH Policy Announcement, Speakers including Fed Chair Powell & Bowman, ECB's Lagarde. Earnings from SAP, Intuitive, Capital One, Baker Hughes, Coca Cola, Lockheed Martin, Philip Morris, RTX, DR Horton, Northrop Gruman, Danaher, MSCI & Pulte.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 hit record highs, Russell 2000 outperformed for the second consecutive day.Fed's Waller says they should cut by 25bps at the July meeting and thereafter adjust meeting-by-meeting.APAC stocks predominantly higher, China shrugged off a 93.5% tariff on graphite; European futures point to a firmer open.DXY rangebound, EUR/USD reclaimed the 1.16 handle, Antipodeans outperformed after Thursday's AUD pressure.Fixed benchmarks marginally higher, JGBs in-fitting into the weekend's Upper House election.Crude holds onto Thursday's upside, XAU rangebound, base metals post mild gains.Looking ahead, highlights include German Producer Prices, US Building Permits/Housing Starts, UoM prelim, G20 Finance Ministers Meeting, Speakers including ECB's Nagel & German Finance Minister Klingbeil, Earnings from 3M, American Express, Charles Schwab, Atlas Copco, Hexpol, Boliden, Skanska, Telia & Danske Bank.Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump said they are very close to an India deal, could possibly make one with Europe & it is too soon to say re. Canada.US stocks finished higher but with volatile trade amid reports that Trump had drafted a letter to fire Powell; later, Trump denied this.DXY has regained some composure after getting hit on Fed independence concerns, G10s softer with AUD lagging after soft jobs data.USTs ease after Wednesday's upside, JGBs initially followed suit but picked up after the latest JGB liquidity auction.Crude remains afloat, XAU rangebound, base peers lack conviction in contained trade.Highlights include Australian Employment, UK Jobs, EZ HICP (Final), US Trade, Jobless Claims, Retail Sales & Atlanta Fed GDPNow, G20 Finance Ministers Meeting, Speakers including Fed's Kugler, Daly, Cook & Waller, Supply from Spain, France & UK, Earnings from Novartis, Publicis, Volvo, PepsiCo, GE, Abbott Laboratories, Netflix & TSMC.Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump offered Iran a two-week window to monitor negotiations before deciding on military action.European stocks benefit from geopolitical optimism whilst US futures are slightly lower.DXY flat, JPY mildly boosted by Y/Y Core CPI beat.Two-way action for JGBs after reports suggest Japan plans to cut FY25 superlong JGB issuance by JPY 3.2tln, Gilts gap higher on retail sales but fade.Crude curtailed by negotiating updates, European risk tone weighs on gold.Looking ahead, US Philly Fed Business Index, Leading Index Change, Canadian Producer Prices & Retail sales, EU Consumer Confidence, Quad witching, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi meets with European Ministers, Holidays in Sweden, Finland, New Zealand.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump says he wants "a real end," with Iran "giving up entirely" on nukes”, via CBS's Jacobs.US President Trump says the EU is not yet offering a fair deal, there is a chance of a deal with Japan but they are "tough". Pharma tariffs coming soon.Stocks hit as Iran-Israel strikes continue and Trump posts that "everyone" should evacuate Tehran.FX markets in narrow ranges awaiting US Retail Sales; incremental strength in JPY post-BoJ, but Ueda sparked some weakness thereafter.Two-way action for JGBs; USTs just about firmer while EGBs & Gilts reside in the red.Crude moves higher as Trump cuts his G7 trip short and now awaiting developments from the situation in Iran.Looking ahead, US Export/Import Prices, Retail Sales, Industrial Production, BoC Minutes, G7 Leaders' Summit.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Featured in this podcast are Arindam Sandilya, Ayako Fujita, Takafumi Yamawaki, and Tim West. JPMorgan's Japan macro team discusses the causes of and potential remedies for the ongoing sell-off in long-end JGBs.   This podcast was recorded on Jun 5, 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

US President Trump is to meet with German Chancellor Merz at 11:45EDT/16:45BST today.US President Trump said the "debt limit should be entirely scrapped..."; separately, he banned travel from certain nationsAPAC trade was mixed, European futures point to a flat openDXY saw a slight reprieve, EUR/USD took a breather and GBP was rangeboundFixed benchmarks held onto recent gains, JGBs were briefly knocked by the 30yr auctionCrude lacklustre, and unreactive to Trump and Putin holding a conversationLooking ahead, highlights include German Industrial Orders, Swedish CPI, Italian Retail Sales, EZ Producer Prices, US Jobless Claims, Challenger Layoffs, US International Trade, Canadian Trade, ECB Policy Announcement; BoE DMP, Danish Holiday, Speakers including ECB President Lagarde, BoE's Greene, Fed's Kugler, Harker, Schmid & BoC's Kozicki, Supply from Spain & France, Earnings from Broadcom, DocuSign, Wise & CMC Markets.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

APAC stocks mostly higher following the Wall St. strength, futures since off best awaiting NVIDIA earningsUS President Trump says Canada joining the Golden Dome is free if they are the 51st State, adding "They are considering the offer!"DXY continues to pick up, EUR/USD tests 1.13 to the downside & Cable lost 1.35, JPY choppyRBNZ cut as expected, but refrained from overtly dovish languageJGBs came under pressure after a somewhat mixed 40yr auction, USTs & EGBs also softCrude marginally firmer ahead of OPEC, gold indecisive, base peers lacklustreLooking ahead, highlights include German Unemployment Rate, ECB SCE, US Richmond Fed Index, FOMC Minutes, OPEC+/JMMC, Speakers including Fed's Williams, Kashkari & BoE's Pill, Supply from UK, Germany & US, Earnings from NVIDIA, Salesforce, Abercrombie & Macy's.Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

This episode of Macro Mondays aired live at 12:30pm BST on Monday, the 27th of May, 2025. Join James Brodie and James Todd , LIVE 12:30 BST, as they break down the biggest financial market moves and what's coming next! 

This week, we discuss the U.S. fiscal pivot, soaring deficits, and what it means for bond markets, Bitcoin, and global capital flows. We also debate whether Japan is the canary in the coal mine for sovereign debt risks, if QE is still politically viable, the housing market crisis, and why Bitcoin and foreign equities may be the only rational long-term trades. Enjoy! — Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx — Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1zNQbt0lyXLmZQYf-56mneLpPxFNJ5y7h/view?usp=sharing — Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv — Blockdaemon is the gateway to the decentralized economy, securing over $110B in digital assets for 400+ institutions with blockchain nodes, APIs, MPC wallets and vaults, and staking solutions. Learn more: www.blockdaemon.com Arkham is a crypto exchange and a blockchain analytics platform. Arkham allows crypto traders and investors to look inside the wallets of the best traders, largest funds and most influential players in crypto, and then act on that information. Sign up to Arkham: https://auth.arkm.com/register?ref=blockworks Eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Users residing in certain jurisdictions will be excluded from onboarding. Echo Protocol is the first Bitcoin liquid re-staking and yield layer on MoveVM. As the second-largest protocol on Aptos by TVL, Echo secures nearly half of the network's bridged assets with ~$200M in aBTC minted. Check out https://www.echo-protocol.xyz/ to learn more! — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:46) Big Beautiful Bill (06:47) There's One Trade (09:39) Ads (Blockdaemon, Aptos, Arkham) (11:21) Government Spending Problem (14:10) US Economic Data (16:55) Housing Market Crisis (22:12) Global Collateral & JGBs (27:21) Food Prices & Labor (30:46) Ads (Blockdaemon, Aptos, Arkham) (33:10) Bond Yields & Inflation (38:32) Liquidity & Collateral Stress (42:03) US Equities Still Safe? (50:37) Final Thoughts — Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the bond market is speaking, passing judgement on the Trump Budget - it doesn't like it.The benchmark US Treasury 10yr, 20yr and 30yr bond yields have all jumped +12 bps so far today. That means their holders are taking sharp capital losses as the price of 'safety', and new buyers want sharply higher risk premiums. These rates are closing in on pre-GFC levels now.After a couple of weeks of rises, US mortgage applications fell last week and that too was because of rising mortgage interest rates. Their benchmark 30 year rate is very much tied to the equivalent UST rates, so next week it is very likely mortgage interest rates will jump sharply too, with a consequential fall in new mortgage applications.And those rate rises are flowing through to the primary market as well. The overnight US Treasury 20 year bond auction was still well-supported but at a price, with the median yield jumping to 4.97%, up +22 bps from 4.75% at the prior equivalent event a month ago. It has been a long time since we have seen as sharp a price signal in the primary market.It is actually starker than that. At that prior event, the high bid was 4.81% and 6.5% of the auction was allocated at that level. At this latest auction, the high bid was 5.05% and 41% was allocated at that level.Stagflation, recession fears, and a clearly irresponsible Federal Budget proposal (just designed for one family's interest) is gnawing away at sentiment and now consumer demand. Overnight, current US crude oil stocks jumped on unexpectedly low demand. These inventories rose by +1.328 million barrels in the week that ended May 16, defying market expectations of a -1.85 million barrel decrease. That is a large, unexpected turn.It is too much for the equities market, which fell sharply on all this bond and demand news.In Canada, and in a surprise, new home prices fell, and rather sharply to be back to early 2024 levels. In fact the dip was the sharpest since the pandemic.Across the Pacific, Japan is facing bond stress as well. Yields on long-term Japanese sovereign bonds are soaring as demand for such debt falters, with many market experts saying the situation is unlikely to change anytime soon. Behind the shrinking demand are mounting investor worries over the health of Asia's No. 2 economy and fallout from US trade tariffs. Yields on 20-year JGBs rose yesterday (Wednesday) to 2.575%, their highest since 2000.Meanwhile, Taiwanese export orders surged almost +20% in April from a year ago to US$56.4 bln and easily exceeding market expectations of a +10% increase. This is their best month ever, outside the distorted period of the pandemic and its aftermath when volatility reigned.The Indonesian central bank cut its policy rate by -25 bps cut to 5.50%, as expected and taking it back to a level first fit in December 2022. Even though inflation is rising there it is only at just under 2% and well within its target range.In Australia, the six-month annualised growth rate in the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, slowed to 0.2% in April from 0.5% in March, a stalling that wasn't expected.In a new update, the ABS said Aussie employers paid a record AU$104.8 bln in salaries and wages in March. Annual growth ranged from +3.7% in the mining industry to +11.9% in Electricity, gas, water and waste services. In dollar terms, the rises were greatest in the healthcare and social assistance services industry (+$1.1 billion or +7.8%), public administration and safety (+$0.6 billion or +8.1%), and construction ($0.6 billion or +7.1%).Join us for the Budget 2025 release after 2pm this afternoon. Although much has already been signaled, some will have been saved for the theatre on the annual budget release, and this is our opportunity to assess the overall health of the Crown accounts - and when we are next likely to return to surplus.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.60%, up a very sharp +12 bp from this time yesterday. Wall Street is sharply lower, with the S&P500 down -1.5% in Wednesday trade. The price of gold will start today at US$3,313/oz, and up +US$28 from yesterday. (Remember the record high is US$3520/oz set on April 22, 2025.)Oil prices are a tad softer today at just over US$61.50/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is -50 USc lower at US$65/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 59.5 USc, up another +30 bps from yesterday at this time. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 92.3 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 52.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today still just over 67.6 and up +10 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$106,238 and essentially unchanged from yesterday. At one point it briefly hit US$109,500, but fell back just as quickly. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/-2.0%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

APAC stocks were marginally higher as the region took impetus from the rebound stateside; S&P 500 and Dow notched six-day win streaksEuropean equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 future up 0.5% after the cash market closed flat on Monday.FX markets are broadly steady. AUD lags after the RBA delivered a 25bps cut and cut its inflation outlook.US President Trump stated that Russia and Ukraine are to immediately begin negotiations on a ceasefire and an end to the war.US House Speaker Johnson said they are almost there on the tax bill and he is very confident they will get it done.Looking ahead, highlights include German Producer Prices, Canadian Inflation, EZ Consumer Confidence, NZ Trade, G7 Finance Ministers Meeting, RBA's Bullock, BoE's Pill, ECB's Cipollone, Nagel, Fed's Bostic, Barkin, Collins, Musalem, Kugler, Daly & Hammack, Supply from Germany.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

European bourses are modestly firmer whilst US equity futures sit in negative territory.USD remains out of favour, AUD weighed on after the RBA delivered a 25bps cut (as expected) and amid discussion of a 50bps cut.JGBs briefly hit by a poor auction, fixed recovery continues into numerous Fed speakers.Crude choppy on mixed geopolitics regarding Russia/Ukraine and Iranian nuclear talks.Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei said "I don't think nuclear talks with the US will be successful", via Mehr news.Looking ahead, Canadian Inflation, NZ Trade, G7 Finance Ministers Meeting, ECB's Cipollone, Nagel, Fed's Bostic, Barkin, Collins, Musalem, Kugler, Daly & Hammack. Earnings from Home Depot & Bilibili.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Europe on holiday, US equity futures entirely in the green with sentiment boosted after strong META/MSFT results.DXY is a little firmer ahead of US data, JPY hit post-BoJ/Ueda.JGBs lead post BoJ/Ueda, USTs await Tier 1 data points.Crude continues to decline, XAU hit by the USD while base peers welcome the US tone post-Mag7.Looking ahead, US Challenger Layoffs, Jobless Claims & ISM Manufacturing.Earnings from Amazon, Apple, Riot Platforms, Reddit, Airbnb, Eli Lilly, Roblox, CVS, MasterCard, McDonald's.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Anyone looking to by gold really needs to contact today's video sponsor, our friends over at DefytheGrid, using the link below:https://defythegrid.com/c/eurodollaruniversity/Make sure you use Coupon Code: eurodollaruniversityA big move in Japan today, with yields dropping and the yen rising. Both were matched by some truly grim developments and warnings from around the world, everything from AI to the Bank of Canada's extreme case and then some truly grim results in New York. Or, exactly what JGBs and JPY are signaling themselves. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Nvidia Curbs and ASML Warning Spur Global Tech-Stock Routhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-16/nvidia-supplier-stocks-drop-on-latest-china-export-restrictionsWTO April 2025 Global Trade Outlookhttps://www.wto.org/english/res_e/booksp_e/trade_outlook25_e.pdfFRBNY April 2025 Business Leaders Survey https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/Survey/business_leaders/2025/2025_04blsreport.pdf?sc_lang=en&hash=F63E9C1D24FCF84A22217C915C713718https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Fed Chair Powell reaffirmed a wait-and-see approach and suggested incredibly high uncertaintyUS President Trump said "Big Progress!" was made with Japan on tradeAPAC shrugged off the negative Wall St. handover, but gains were capped with drivers limitedDXY found reprieve from recent pressure but remains below 100.00, USD/JPY hit a seven-month low but has since rebounded back above 142.00USTs & JGBs soft while Bunds lacked firm direction; French supply aheadCrude extended on Wednesday's strength, XAU pulled back from fresh record highs, base metals choppyLooking ahead, highlights include German Producer Prices, US Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Index, ECB & CBRT Policy Announcements, Speakers including ECB President Lagarde, Fed's Barr & Williams, Supply from France. Earnings from TSMC, UnitedHealth, American Express, DR Horton, Netflix, Sainsbury's, Rentokil & L'OrealClick for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US bourses finished mixed with futures thereafter pressured after NVIDIA flagged 5.5bln of charges.White House said over 15 trade deal proposals are being considered and some could be announced soon.DXY gave back some of Tuesday's strength, EUR/USD back above 1.13 and Cable above 1.3250 into UK CPI.USTs paused for breath after gains sparked by Treasury officials, Bunds rebounded and JGBs retested 141.00Crude benchmarks lackluster, XAU hit another record high while base peers followed the risk tone lowerLooking ahead, highlights include UK CPI, US Retail Sales, NZ CPI, BoC Policy Announcement, Speakers including Fed's Powell, Cook, Hammack, Logan & Schmid, BoC's Macklem & Rogers, Supply from Germany & US.Earnings from Heineken, US Bancorp, Abbott, Progressive, Travelers, Prologis, Autliv, Citizens, First Horizon, Alcoa, Barratt Redrow, Moncler, Brunello Cucinelli & Lindt.Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Trump lifted the tariff on China to 125% with immediate effect, announced a 90-day pause & cut reciprocals to 10% for nations that asked for talks.Sparked significant risk on with US bourses closing higher by around 10%, APAC stocks surged & European futures are markedly higher.DXY gave back Wednesday's strength, FOMC Minutes a non-event; EUR higher but shy of 1.10, USD/JPY faded from highs above 148.00.USTs rebound from lows, aided by a strong 10yr tap. Bunds & JGBs hit on the 90-day pause.Crude followed the broader risk tone, metals surge.Looking ahead, highlights include Norwegian & US CPI, US Jobless Claims, Chinese M2 Money Supply, Speakers including RBA's Bullock, BoE's Breeden, Fed's Logan, Bowman, Schmid, Goolsbee & Harker, SNB's Tschudin & Moser, Supply from Spain & US.Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump is said to be pushing senior advisers to go bigger on tariff policy as they prepare for ‘Liberation Day' on April 2nd; reportedly revived the idea of a flat universal tariff single rate on most imports.European bourses and US futures in the red given the above and into month & quarter end, Euro Stoxx 50 -1.5%, ES -1.0%; NQ -1.3% with NVDA pressured.DXY has been on either side of the unchanged mark throughout the morning, EUR and GBP flat/slightly softer while USD/JPY hit a 148.71 low as the Nikkei 225 entered correction territory.Fixed benchmarks bid on the broad risk tone, German State CPIs sparked a fleeing move lower into the mainland figure, JGBs slipped as the BoJ cut its bond purchase amounts.Crude firmer as geopolitical tensions outweigh the macro tone following reports around Trump on Iran, XAU at a fresh record high, base metals dented.US President Trump threatened to bomb Iran if a nuclear deal can't be reached, while he also warned of secondary tariffs on Russian oil.Looking ahead, highlights include US Chicago PMI & Trump's executive orders.Note: UK clocks changed from GMT to BST on Sunday which means the London to New York time gap returned to five hours.Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Stocks gain with sentiment lifted after a strong Chinese session overnight and after the recent market turmoil.USD mixed vs. peers, GBP soft post-GDP, JPY weighed on by Rengo data, which showed average wage hike less than demands.Gilts gap higher on soft growth data while JGBs lift on Rengo.Spot gold makes a fresh record high above USD 3,000/oz; crude oil and base metals benefit from the risk tone.Looking ahead, US UoM Survey, Trump executive orders, Fitch to review France; US Government Funding Expires.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

European bourses grind higher, US futures modestly in the green.USD marginally firmer, JPY softer and GBP knocked lower by disappointing retail sales.JGBs lag slightly on further BoJ reports, Gilts gapped higher on Retail Sales.Mixed trade in the base metal complex but crude stays firm.Looking ahead, US Industrial Production, CBO Budget and Economic Outlook, Comments from ECB's Cipollone, Earnings from SLB, Fastenal, Truist, State Street & Citizens.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Stocks hold modest gains, FTSE 100 outperforms post-CPI; US bank earnings due.DXY lower ahead of US CPI, GBP resilient in the wake of soft inflation metrics, JPY leads.Gilts inflated by CPI, JGBs dented by Ueda & USTs await CPI.Choppy trade in crude while precious metals tilt higher and base metals trade mixed.Looking ahead, US CPI, OPEC MOMR, Fed Beige Book, Speakers including BoE's Taylor, Fed's Barkin, Kashkari, Williams & Goolsbee. Earnings from JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, BlackRock, Citi, Wells Fargo, Bank of New York Mellon.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

European stocks tumble post-FOMC, MU -15% pre-market weighing on chip peers in Europe; US futures attempting to recoup yesterday's losses.USD gives back some of yesterday's post-FOMC gains, JPY hit after BoJ Governor Ueda's press conference.US yield curve steepens, JGBs outperform post-Ueda, Gilts lag pre-BoE.Crude lifts incrementally off Wednesday's lows, XAU fares better as the USD pauses for breath.Looking ahead, US Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Index, NZ Trade Balance, Japanese CPI, BoE, CNB, Banxico Policy Announcements, Earnings from Accenture, Cintas, Conagra Brands, Nike, FedEx, BlackBerry.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

APAC stocks mostly gained following the rally stateside where the S&P 500 and the Dow surged to fresh record highs as the dust settled after the Fed over-delivered in its first rate cut in four years and US data topped forecasts.BoJ kept its short-term policy rate unchanged at 0.25%, as expected with the decision made by unanimous vote, with no fireworks; USD/JPY was choppy before heading marginally lower, and 10-year JGBs were eventually subdued.PBoC maintained LPRs at their current levels as expected; Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed whilst the Yuan was firmer overnight despite reports of Chinese major state-owned banks seen buying dollars.European equity futures are indicative of a softer cash open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.4% after the cash market closed higher by 2.2% on Thursday.Looking ahead, highlights include UK Retail Sales, Canadian Producer Prices, Retail Sales, EZ Consumer Confidence, Quad Witching, Comments from Norges Bank's Longva & Bache, BoE's Mann, BoC's Macklem, ECB's Lagarde, Fed's Harker & Bowman.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded higher across the board despite a lack of fresh catalysts following a mixed lead from Wall Street, and ahead of US PCE and the US long weekend.DXY traded within a very narrow range, EUR and GBP were uneventful, while JPY held a firmer bias after the Tokyo CPI surprisingly ticked higher.Fixed income futures diverged slightly overnight, with USTs flat ahead of PCE, Bunds faded gains pre-EZ CPI, and JGBs softer after Tokyo CPI.European equity futures are indicative of a softer open, with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.2% after cash closed +1.1% on Thursday.Looking ahead, highlights include German Trade, Retail Sales, French CPI, Spanish Retail Sales, EZ CPI, Italian CPI, US PCE, and ECB's Schnabel.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

S&P futures are pointing to a flat open today ahead of the July CPI data. Asian markets finished Wednesday trading mix, and European equity markets continue to climb in early trades. In today's macro news, Japan Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has announced that he will not run in the upcoming LDP presidential election, effectively stepping down as PM once a new leader is chosen. Kishida's withdrawal introduces market uncertainty, with no clear successor favored by markets. While most contenders support monetary policy normalization, the implications for fiscal policy and investor participation initiatives, such as the NISA program, remain uncertain. Analysts expect equities to be most affected, with yen direction influenced by external factors and JGBs by supply-demand conditions.Companies Mentioned: Honeywell, Allstate, Alphabet, Kellanova, Southwest Airlines

APAC stocks initially subdued before benefitting from the latest China property support measuresDXY bid with peers generally contained aside from slight JPY pressure, Yuan benefits from the property support despite soft/mixed data beforehandFixed benchmarks uneventful ex-JGBs which outperformed as the BoJ maintained the Rinban purchase amountCommodities contained with specifics light, modest support on China property caveated by mixed signals from the economyECB's Schnabel says a June cut may be appropriate but the current data does not seem to warrant a rate cut in JulyLooking ahead, highlights include EZ CPI (F), Comments from ECB's de Guindos, BoE's Mann, Fed's Waller & Daly, Earnings from Engie & Scor.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

BoJ maintained policy settings & forward guidance, Ueda said little chance for BoJ to say policy will change in JanuaryDovish reaction in fixed income with JGBs leading and global yields lower, USD/JPY testing 145.00 at bestEuropean bourses & US futures are firmer, ES remains sub-4800 and Monday's 4802.25 bestDXY pivoting 102.50 with Antipodeans once again outperforming with strength also in EUR & GBPCrude & European energy benchmarks softer on a breather from Red Sea tensions, but crude has since lifted on Euronav remarksLooking ahead, highlights include US Building Permits/Housing Starts, Canadian CPI, Japanese Trade Balance, NBH Announcement, Fed's Bostic, Goolsbee; BoE's Breeden.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Heading into the end of the year, questions remain around Treasury yields and the neutral interest rate.----- Transcript -----Seth Carpenter: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Chief Global Economist. Guneet Dhingra: And I'm Guneet Dhingra, Morgan Stanley's Head of U.S. Trade Strategies. Seth Carpenter: And today on the podcast, we'll be discussing our updated economic and rates outlook for the rest of the year and into 2024. It's Monday, September 11th, at 10 a.m. in New York. Seth Carpenter: All right, Guneet. We are now about a week into September and we can take stock of what we've learned over the summer. For macroeconomists like me we care about growth, inflation, monetary policy, and I'll say this summer spending indicators came in strong, inflation continued to fall, and we had Jackson Hole, the sort of nerd temple for monetary policy. And I have to say we didn't learn quite as much as I hoped, but we kind of know the Fed has done hiking, or at least very close. But I have to say, in your domain, the Treasury yield is trading roughly 4.25%. On the last day of June, when summer began, it was around 380. Can we just attribute the higher rate to thin liquidity and move on? Guneet Dhingra: You're right Seth, it's not just thin liquidity, but the conditions of August definitely played a meaningful part in sending yields higher. Typically, as investors look to go away for August, positive carry trades are the easiest trades to have on, and playing for higher yields has been positive carry. Which is why I think in August this year and even the last year, yields tended to go higher. But beyond August, seasonality, which might be the simplest explanation, investors have 4 major narratives out there that R-star, the so-called neutral rate of interest has increased, the end of yield curve control in Japan, more Treasury supply and more recently at the end of the summer, and increased supply of corporate debt. Guneet Dhingra: So before we go there Seth, you mentioned Jackson Hole at the end of the summer. The idea that some investors have that because the economy has held up so well, despite the Fed's rate hikes, that the underlying neutral rate or R-star must be higher and so will have higher interest rates not just now, but into the future. What is your take on this whole R* debate and what have you learned from Jackson Hole? Seth Carpenter: Absolutely. So I have to say Jackson Hole was very interesting, but this time there were a lot of very academic minded papers there that were very important to talk about. I can see how they can spur debate, but I'm not sure they provide that much that's actionable in the near term for the Fed or even for markets. And when it comes specifically to R-star, color me a bit skeptical and I say that for a few reasons. One, alternate explanations just abound. We could have got stronger spending because there's more residual impetus from the fiscal policy that's already in the pipeline. And in particular, if we look at where we missed our GDP forecast, a really big part of that was nonresidential structures investment. So that could go a long way to explain it. Second, if R-star really was higher, I think that would mean that the Fed would have to raise the peak rate during this hiking cycle even higher, not just rates off in the future. And so what does that mean? That means that I at least would have expected a parallel shift higher in rates, not just along in selling off. And in fact, you might even see a steeper inversion of the curve as the rate goes higher in the near term, but then has to come down later. So take all of that together, and I guess I'm just really not convinced that there's enough evidence to conclude that R-star is higher. Guneet Dhingra: Yeah, makes a lot of sense, Seth. And listening to you about the growth and economic picture, I'm even more convinced that this R-star story doesn't quite hold water. Seth Carpenter: All right, so then there is the yield curve control story. And I will say, at the risk of patting myself on the back, our Japan team had been expecting a tweak to yield curve control in Japan, and we got it. But I know that you're skeptical that that's really the story here. Why do you push back? Guneet Dhingra: Yeah, I think one of the ways you can actually verify the impact of the yield curve control on the U.S Treasury market, is just break down the price action into different time zones. And what you saw is in the Tokyo time zone, where you would expect a lot of the so-called repatriation flows to play out, we haven't really seen much of a movement in U.S Treasury yields ever since the YCC change announcement. So I would say based on the time zone analysis, it doesn't look like YCC changes are really impacting Treasury yields. Seth Carpenter: Okay Guneet, I get it. So it wasn't from trading happening in Tokyo, but these sort of markets are global. There could have been traders in London, traders in New York who were reacting to the change in yield curve control and selling their JGBs. And then the traders in Tokyo wake up and go, oh, nothing to do here. What do you make of that story? Why couldn't that be the explanation that it really was yield curve control? Guneet Dhingra: So if you break it down in the London Time Zone, it actually turns out that Treasury yields have actually gone lower since the YCC announcement in the London Time Zone. To my mind, that speaks to the idea that maybe investors in those time zones are more focused on the weakness in the European economy than any changes to YCC. And speaking of the New York time zone, yes, it is true that the bulk of the sell off in Treasury yields has happened in the New York time zone. But keep in mind, if hedge funds are the only major player selling yields on the back of the YCC, and it's not quite backed up by repatriation flows, it's probably not likely going to be sustainable. Seth Carpenter: Then let's turn to the last one, increased supply of debt, both Treasury debt and corporate debt. So we know that the U.S deficit is high, Issuance will have to continue for some time. We've heard all of the stories about corporates starting to stir in capital markets and issue more. Shouldn't it be logical that if demand for assets is roughly unchanged but the supply goes up, the price will fall, which should lead to a sell off in rates? What do you make of that story? Guneet Dhingra: Yeah, the story is pretty logical, but I don't think it still answers the question. If supply was really the main driver, I would expect to see more of a substantial tightening in so-called swap spreads, which is the gap between Treasury yields and the equivalent swap rates. We haven't really seen much of a tightening in swap spreads, which really undercuts the idea that Treasury supply is already on investors minds. Seth Carpenter: All right. So I think we've gone through a bunch of the narratives, pushd back on a lot of them, maybe debunked them a little bit. I guess the one other question I would have for you is, could it be that markets are waking up to the higher for longer narrative? The Fed's been trying to say that they're going to keep interest rates as high as they need to for as long as they need to in order to bring inflation back to target. Maybe the market's putting more probability on that sort of outcome. Guneet Dhingra: Just to pretend I'm smarter than the economists, I will use the word bear steepening of the curve here. So in my view, the recent bear steepening of the 2s/10s curve is a combination of two things. Number one, there has been very little change in the market implied Fed funds path through the end of 2024. And number two, the back end has moved higher with some combination of August seasonality and belief around a higher R-star. So I would say it is less about the quote unquote higher for longer expectation, but more about the idea that the Fed fund eventually settles at a higher level in the medium term. Seth Carpenter: Okay. I guess that's fair. Let's take a step back, though, and take stock of what it is that we've learned. You and I and our colleagues have published work recently, basically saying, here's the mid-year outlook we published in May, here are the data that we got over the course of the summer. What did we get right and what did we get wrong? I econ, I'd say we got right the continued and pretty rapid fall in inflation in the U.S. and the slowing in the labor market, and I'm pretty proud of that. But boy, we got wrong just how strong the U.S. economy would be. And in very stark contrast, we missed just how weak the Chinese economy would be. Boy, we really thought that there'd be a stronger, more vigorous policy response that would get better traction and we'd see a bigger cyclical rebound. What are your key takeaways from what you and your colleagues in strategy have learned over the summer? Guneet Dhingra: To start with some numbers, we had ten year yields ending at 3.5% by the end of 2023. Currently there are 4.25%. We think we missed two things. First, the market focuses on upside and growth rather than the cooling of inflation. And number two, we missed the investors and how they're behaving, once bitten twice shy, about adding duration until every data point cools down convincingly. Having said that, your forecast is for more cooling and growth and inflation through the year. And so we have only marginally raised our ten year forecast to 3.65% by the end of this year. Seth Carpenter: I have to say, Guneet, every time I talk to you, I learn something new. So thank you for taking the time to talk. Guneet Dhingra: Great speaking with you, Seth. Seth Carpenter: And thanks to the listeners for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

European bourses & US futures are firmer in a continuation of the APAC handover where action was driven by Chinese inflationTesla +5.5% in pre-market trade following action by Morgan StanleyUSD pressured by both the JPY & Yuan following Ueda and midpoint/CPI respectivelyCore fixed benchmarks remain depressed but are off worst as JGBs regroup from BoJ-inspired lowsCrude continues to pullback despite bullish catalysts while metals benefit from China and the softer USDLooking ahead, highlights include NY Fed SCE. Supply from the US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

European bourses are mixed/steady around the unchanged mark, with US futures following suitAction which follows mostly firmer APAC trade given Wall St. momentum, Chinese stimulus and despite mixed PMIsDXY is on the front-foot despite some month-end model predictions; JPY standout laggard while Antipodeans outperformFixed income remains pressured though JGBs have steadied after unscheduled 5-10yr purchases, EGBs unreactive to Flash dataCrude benchmarks continue to benefit from the risk tone/Chinese stimulus, while metals are more mixed given the USDs influenceLooking ahead, highlights include US Chicago PMI; Fed's Goolsbee, SLOOS & Treasury Estimates.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

BoJ sources around YCC spark marked dovish reaction in JPY and JGBs, which has filtered through to broader assetsDXY back above 101.00 with USD/JPY testing 142.00; action which eroded GBP's retail-driven upsideEuropean/US equity benchmarks relatively contained, Tech hit by SAP while NQ benefits from yield actionJGB upside briefly lifts peers with EGBs/USTs struggling for direction while Gilts slip on dataCrude largely resilient to the USD's upside with base metals underpinned on Chinese stimulus, XAU pressuredLooking ahead, highlights include Canadian Retail Sales. Earnings from American Express & SchlumbergerRead the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

European bourses & US futures are firmer despite a distinct lack of fresh drivers ahead of the week's key eventsDXY wanes with Antipodeans firmer, EUR rebounding towards 1.08 and GBP bid post-HaskelGilts underperform generally subdued core benchmarks following BoE remarks while BTPs and JGBs buck the bearish trendCrude and base metals continue to slip with spot gold benefits from the softer USDChina's Foreign Ministry says they have no information on a Blinken visitLooking ahead, highlights include US NY Fed SCE & supply from the US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

The Nikkei Average and Dollar/Yen keep climbing higher. Meanwhile, Yen rate and Yen cross-currency basis remain little changed. Now that the G7 Summit in Hiroshima is over, speculation about whether Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will disband the Lower House and call for elections is growing. In today's episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido gives his view on triggers in the wake of the G7 Summit in Hiroshima as well as his analysis of the latest April JSDA data. He also shares his outlook for spot Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis. Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

JGBs have sold-off while changes to USDJPY and JPY basis have been relatively limited. The Bank of Japan's March Tankan survey showed business sentiment worsened only slightly, as the jitters over the US and European banking sectors have not yet spread to Tokyo. However, the Nikkei Average is up only slightly as foreign investors unload Japan shares simply because they are a risk asset. Cross boarder bond flows have been massive in the Tokyo market. In today's episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido review JPY assets and securities flows in March and also looks ahead to triggers for April. He also shares his views on spot USDJPY, Yen rates, and Yen basis. Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

Alibaba Holdings announces their restructuring into six entities, triggering a surge in Chinese tech shares, and global indices. Weston Nakamura gives his initial takeaways of this monumental surprise development, and the potential implications reaching far beyond China. In addition, Weston discusses the upcoming China PMI release on Friday as a potential market moving catalyst, citing the prior month's reading and subsequent cross-asset market reaction that followed. He also shows why the yuan's price action matters to global markets. Finally, Weston touches on the yen and its price action heading into Japan fiscal year-end later this week, as well as his read on no-trade JGBs potentially signaling the end of the recent rate volatility. -- Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9U Follow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vm Follow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespread Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_  Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this debut episode of Market Depth, Tokyo- based Weston Nakamura takes a deep dive look into Haruhiko Kuroda's decade-long tenure as the Governor of the Bank of Japan, who leaves his post as the most consequential major central banker in the modern era.  Governor Kuroda was appointed (then re-appointed for a rare second term) by Prime Minister Abe in 2013, specifically to carry out radically aggressive monetary easing measures- for which Kuroda delivered upon from his very first policy meeting with QQE. A decade later, Kuroda certainly has delivered- perhaps even overdelivered on the “easing without backing down” promise by conducting the world's largest and now increasingly controversial experiment in monetary policy easing: yield curve control. As Kuroda now hands the keys over to a new governor, the Bank of Japan now owns more than half of the Japanese government bond market, and is capping long term yields at explicit levels by policy, battling market forces that are pushing for a higher yielding environment against a backdrop of inflation at 40 year highs. Despite a 4% CPI reading in Japan, Governor Kuroda's only regret is that he “was unable to achieve the 2% inflation goal.” Whether Kuroda had achieved his objectives or not is up for debate. The question is - in the process of attempting to pull Japan out of a deflationary spiral, did Governor Kuroda create a meteoric 500 trillion yen bubble in JGBs? And what happens when he is no longer there to keep the largest bubble in history inflated? -- Follow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespread Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_  Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

European bourses are mixed/flat, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.1%, as the initial pressure from hot French/Spanish inflation readings has eased through the morning.US futures in-fitting with the above ahead of Fed speak; AAPL lower on Foxlink, CVX higher post-buyback update.DXY is firmer, but is closer to the session trough, while EUR has faded initial CPI-induced upside, GBP outperforms & JPY lags.Debt futures fade with Bunds at a fresh cycle low and curves re-steepening, JGBs outperform following a 2yr sale and dovish BoJ nominee testimony.Crude is firmer and seemingly continues to consolidate while metals generally are mixed given the above.Looking ahead, highlights include Canadian GDP, US Chicago PMI, Consumer Confidence, Fed Discount Rate Minutes, International Energy Week (1/3), Speeches from BoE's Pill & Fed's Goolsbee. Earnings from Target & HP.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Hosts: Ansel Lindner and Christian Keroles Fed Watch is a macro podcast with a clear contrarian thesis of a deflationary breakdown of the financial system leading to bitcoin adoption. We question narratives and schools of thought, and try to form new understanding. Each episode we use current events to question mainstream and bitcoin narratives across the globe, with an emphasis on central banks and currencies. (Find links below or, along with charts, at bitcoinandmarkets.com/fed129) In this episode, CK has returned from his trip to India and joins us for a big day of new economic data from the US. On deck for this episode is a quick discussion about the US debt ceiling and then we get into the main topic in my opinion, US GDP numbers for Q4 2022 and the whole year. US real GDP in Q4 rose at an annual rate of 2.9%. That is a pretty significant number for people expecting recession any day now. For the year of 2022, real GDP increased by 2.1% These numbers are in-line with my predictions of returning to a post-GFC (Great Financial Crisis) normal of low growth and low inflation. The last topic of today's episode is all about Japan's new monetary bazooka, an amendment to “Principle Terms and Conditions for Funds-Supplying Operations against Pooled-Capital.” That's just a long label for a program where the Bank of Japan (BOJ) lends money to banks to buy government bonds so the central bank doesn't have to buy them directly. They've made it possible to give these loans at negative interest rates, and extended the term to up to 10 years. That means, they could pay banks to buy JGBs. Thanks for joining us. If you are reading this, hit the like and subscribe button! Constant updates on bitcoin and macro: https://t.me/bitcoinandmarkets Free weekly Bitcoin Fundamentals Report: https://bitcoinandmarkets.com Find More and Follow Ansel Lindner: https://twitter.com/AnselLindner Christian Keroles: https://twitter.com/ck_snarks Watch this Episode: YouTube https://www.youtube.com/c/BitcoinMagazine || Rumble https://rumble.com/c/BitcoinMagazine Slide deck https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1MXyQLIpFQC2YNy8p8BTzUnoEqLs1_Dv6PCYc3JzC4X8/edit?usp=sharing US debt ceiling https://archive.ph/ipQoF Q4 real GDP report https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2023-01/gdp4q22_adv_fax.pdf Article on Japan's new bazooka https://archive.ph/Mvw1p If you enjoy this content please LIKE, SUBSCRIBE, REVIEW on iTunes, and SHARE! Written by Ansel Lindner THIS EPISODE'S SPONSORS: Moon Mortgage River Bitcoin 2023 Miami Bitcoin Magazine Bitcoin Magazine Pro

As markets shift, corporate treasurers and CFOs need to keep up. We talked to Corpay Cross-Border's currency research team, Karthik Sankaran, Senior Market Strategist, Karl Schamotta, Chief Market Strategist  and Peter Dragicevich, Currency Strategist - APAC about what's coming in for 2023. We touch on the impact of the substantial reversal in the US dollar in the fourth quarter of 2022, how US economy and Fed policy will affect markets, the Bank of Canada's stance and it's implications for the loonie, How China's internal policies impact global asset markets, the Eurozone economy and more. Note: The opinions expressed on FX in Focus News & Views are those of the speakers only, and do not necessarily reflect the views of Corpay or FLEETCOR Technologies Inc.  

JGBs rallied, Yen basis widened, and the Yen weakened in the aftermath of the Bank of Japan's January Monetary Policy Board meeting. The surprise decision at the December BoJ meeting stoked speculation in the market about further changes this week. Ultimately, the BoJ stood pat but announced some enhanced lending capabilities that could prove significant.  In today's episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido reviews the January BoJ policy meeting, shares his outlook for monetary policy going forward, and discusses cross-border securities investing flows during December. He also shares his views on spot Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis.

Dollar/Yen has rebounded from the lows while super long term JGBs have been volatile. The front end of the USDJPY basis curve continues to tighten while the long end has widened. The Kishida Administration has announced tax hikes and a bigger defense budget, which could increase volatility in the JGB market. Japanese investors also face challenges with managing their JGB and USDJPY positions ahead of year-end. In today's episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido reviews Japanese lifers first half fiscal year 2022 earnings and connects them to October securities flow data. He also shares his views on spot Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis. Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

The Lord Of The Dark Matter, James Aitken returns to The End Game to handicap the predicament in which central bankers find themselves now that the RBA has been forced away from yield curve control and Japan's currency and JGBs (the fabled Widowmaker Trade) are once again in the crosshairs of the bond market As a reminder, Silver Tier subscribers to https://www.grant-williams.com get access to both Things That Make You Go Hmmm… and all editions of The Grant Williams Podcast, including The End Game, The Super Terrific Happy Hour, The Narrative Game, This Week In Doom and Shifts Happen so sign up today!