Disorder

For a special edition of the podcast, we hear a conversation between Jason and Andrew Keen on his KeenOn podcast. They discuss: is the American Dream Dead? Can you truly reinvent yourself in the US compared to Europe? And is there still hope for America going forward?    Producer: George McDonagh  Executive Producer: Neil Fearn    Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/    Show Notes Links:  To get tickets to our RUSI event on 14th May visit: https://my.rusi.org/events/disorder-podcast-live-ordering-the-global-financial-disorder.html     Get the KeenOn podcast at https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/keen-on-america/id1448694012   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

JOIN OUR SUBSTACK TO COME TO THE DISORDER LIVE SHOW MAY 14, 17:30 AT RUSI. INFO IN THE LINKS BELOW   NOW TO THIS EPISODE: Alex and Jason take listener questions that explore the chaotic political landscape shaped by Trump. Our brilliant Mega Orderers have asked about: What are Trump's true goals and how aligned are they with Russia; where is this going to end; and how should functioning democracies respond?     Bouncing off listeners' ideas, Alex and Jason discuss: new forms of ‘spheres of influence' imperialism; how Trumpian advisors, like the influencer Rasputin Laura Loomer, recycle Russian talking points;  could Canada, the UK, New Zealand and Australia work together to forge an alternative order? Is crypto just a vehicle for corruption? And how do you deal with switching from driving on one side of the road to the other?    Producer: George McDonagh  Executive Producer: Neil Fearn    Subscribe to our Substack and become a paid member to support our work - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/    Show Notes Links:    Disorder Podcast Live: Ordering the Global Financial Disorder  17:30 – 20:00 BST;  14 May 2025     Join us for a live recording of the Disorder Podcast with Tom Keatinge, Director of the Centre for Finance and Security at RUSI IN LOND AT 61 Whitehall  To attend become a paid for member of the Ordering the Disorder Substack here and then follow the RUSI prompts to attend: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/p/disorder-podcast-live-1730-may-14?triedRedirect=true    Listen to Arthur Snell's podcast, Behind The Lines, with Jonathan Terra: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-crisis-in-the-atlantic-alliance-ep-2/id1704344656?i=1000702371956   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

As Trump's trade war heats up and his anti-NATO rhetoric continues, America's allies are having to face a new reality: the global superpower can no longer be relied upon. As core allies like the EU, UK and Canada recalibrate, what does that mean for America? And what does that mean for America's traditional European allies who rely on the U.S. for their defence?    To discuss the future of NATO and Five Eyes, Jason is joined by longtime friend of the Pod, Kori Schake. She has lived her entire professional life advocating for the Transatlantic Alliance and American global leadership. She started her career as NATO desk officer at DoD under GHW Bush and is now Director of Foreign and Defense Policy Studies at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI).    Kori and Jason look at what might happen if America further withdraws from the world and abandons its traditional allies; what happens next in Ukraine; if Trump has a real peace plan; and how his cabinet members are acting like a megaphone rather than as genuine advisors. The duo look at scary scenerios: like what happens if the US tried to kick Canada out of the Five Eyes Intelligence sharing partnership and why Trump's allies drive his policy choices towards the extremes.    Producer: George McDonagh  Executive Producer: Neil Fearn    Pls Subscribe to our Substack and become a paid member to support us as we try to support NATO and Five Eyes - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/    Show Notes Links:  Hear Kori previously on Episode 6 NATO: A Model for Ordering the Disorder? - https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/9472a8b7d262dd9fb0cd9827e8947964     Read Kori's piece in The Atlantic - https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2025/02/intelligence-agencies-weakened/681711/     Check out her views on Signalgate: https://www.aei.org/foreign-and-defense-policy/the-wrong-signals-the-proper-role-of-a-defense-secretary/     And hear her on AEI's ‘What the Hell' Podcast talking US Defence policy: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/wth-a-european-supreme-allied-commander-of-nato/id1467993804?i=1000701043889   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Europe and the US are increasingly having differing approaches to everything from free trade to free speech to combatting disinformation to defence to the role of the judiciary. What does that mean for Global Order? Or rather – in our mad mad mad mad world – what does this mean for the extent of Global Disorder?    In this episode, hosts Alexandra Hall Hall and Jason Pack are reunited in person in DC. Jason talks of his misadventures on Capitol Hill – and relates anecdotes he has picked up about the DOGE sledgehammer, Republicans bullying Canadians, and the post-apocalyptic feeling of the place. Jason and Alex anchor the episode around the divergence btw the US and Europe on issues of: Democracy, Misinformation, Corruption and Fraud; National Security/Foreign Policy; and Economy/Tariffs.    They delve into the way the political climate ‘feels' in the US under Trump's administration, and the differences in judicial accountability of major political figures between the US and Europe – looking at the Le Pen case in particular. Jason expresses his mad admiration of France and Sweden.    Plus: could civil disobedience grow in the US? Are Trump's policies being decided by non-experts who launder Russian misinformation like Laura Loomer – a new Tiktok influencer Rasputin? And can Kier Starmer be bold enough to help us Order the Disorder? And what can Sir Keir learn from Canada's Mark Carney who seems naturally gifted at standing up to Trump. So, ELBOWS UP, dear Mega Orderers.    Producer: George McDonagh  Executive Producer: Neil Fearn    Pls Subscribe to our Substack and become a paid member to support what we do - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/    Show Notes Links:  Read Alex's interview with Tom Malinowski: https://bylinetimes.com/2025/03/22/why-the-democrats-must-start-fighting-back-against-trump-and-musk/     Read Trump's firing of NSA chief is ‘rolling out the red carpet' for cyber attacks: https://www.politico.com/news/2025/04/04/trump-fires-nsa-cyber-command-timothy-haugh-00273859     Read Trump Has Already Botched His Own Bad Tariff Plan https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2025/04/trump-negotiation-tariff/682300/     For more on Laura Loomer: Far-right activist who met Trump before he fired NSC officials: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cly8y27dwgpo   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Corruption, corruption, everywhere corruption. And no attempt to stop it in sight. As Trump and his cronies get rich from cypto, dismantle government, and propose their companies fulfilled outsourced contracts, the meta analysis of the new administration appears plain and simple: The tariffs, the strategic crypto fund, meme coin, it is all just corruption out in the open.     If it is so plain for all to see, how are they getting away with it?    To find out, Jason is joined by Frank Vogl. Formerly a foreign correspondent for The Times (UK), and then a senior official at the World Bank, Frank set up Transparency International in 1993, and then co-founded the Partnership for Transparency Fund in 1998. These two global organizations are at the forefront in the fight by civil society against corruption. Now, Frank is an Adjunct Professor at Georgetown University and the author of many articles and two books on global corruption – ‘The Enablers' and ‘Waging War on Corruption'.    In their discussion, Jason and Frank delve into the overt corruption of various decisions early in the 2nd Trump Administration, providing a focus on the role cryptocurrency plays in this corruption. Then, they look at the dismantling of anti-corruption mechanisms, and the transformation of the Republican Party into a vehicle for Trumpism and mafioso crony enrichment of Trump's allies. Then: they analyse the complicity of Western nations in enabling corruption, and the economic implications of these actions.    Finally, as they Order the Disorder, Frank pushes for the establishment of an international anti-corruption court, and argues that European governments can and should step up to help fight back against this corruption.    Producer: George McDonagh  Executive Producer: Neil Fearn    Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/    Show Notes Links:  For more on Frank's work visit - https://www.frankvogl.com/news     For more on Transparency International - https://www.transparency.org/en/     Get Frank's book The Enablers: How the West Supports Kleptocrats and Corruption - Endangering Our Democracy - https://www.amazon.co.uk/Enablers-Kleptocrats-Corruption-Endangering-Democracy-ebook/dp/B09JGL62L1/     Get Frank's book Waging War on Corruption: Inside the Movement Fighting the Abuse of Power - https://www.amazon.co.uk/Waging-War-Corruption-Movement-Fighting/dp/1442218533/   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

On 3 June 2024, Synnovis, a provider of pathology services to the NHS in London, detected the first stages of a ransomware attack. The ransomware quickly spread through Synnovis' networks, encrypting systems and stealing sensitive data. Not for the first time, a ransomware attack had become a matter of life and death.       The attack, which was later claimed by Qilin, a Russian-speaking cybercriminal gang, was a stark example of how cybercrime has become a national security threat. Attacks against hospitals, schools and businesses of all shapes and sizes have normalised what should be intolerable: cybercriminals, in many cases harboured by hostile states, regularly disrupting and extorting victims, causing misery in the process and creating disorder for the UK economy and society.    To help us understand this challenge, and as part of our ongoing series of episodes featuring top experts from the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), Arthur was joined by Jamie MacColl, a Research Fellow in Cyber and Tech at RUSI. Jamie's research focuses on the national security implications of cybercrime, including the relationships between hostile states and cybercriminals. He has given evidence on ransomware on more than one occasion to the Joint Committee on the National Security Strategy and also represents RUSI at the Counter Ransomware Initiative, a multilateral grouping of more than 80 countries committed to combating ransomware. Prior to working at RUSI, Jamie worked as a cyber threat intelligence analyst in the private sector. When not working on cybercrime, he is the guitarist in the British band Bombay Bicycle Club.      They discuss the current state of ransomware, its scale and impact, the role played by rogue states such as Russia and North Korea, and the reasons for the lack of coordinated international  progress in combating the issue.   Finally, as Jamie and Arthur order the disorder, Jamie proposes moving our response to ransomware from the current failing law enforcement model, to an intelligence and counter-terrorism led approach.    Producer: George McDonagh   Executive Producer: Neil Fearn     Show Notes Links:    More on the RUSI Disorder partnership - https://www.rusi.org/news-and-comment/rusi-news/rusi-announces-partnership-disorder-podcast     Become RUSI members for more of their brilliant content:  https://my.rusi.org/membership.html     Follow Arthur's pod Behind The Lines: https://open.spotify.com/show/4bpdB1iEN3irFueS5CMuq5     High-level summaries on ransomware as a national security threat: https://www.economist.com/international/2023/12/31/how-ransomware-could-cripple-countries-not-just-companies     Read RUSI piece The Rise of Ransomware as a National Security Threat:  https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/organised-cybercrime-rise-ransomware-national-security-threat     Read RUSI piece Beyond the Bottom Line: The Societal Impact of Ransomware: https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/beyond-bottom-line-societal-impact-ransomware      Read about the links between cybercrime and state threats:  https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/issue-brief/untangling-the-russian-web/     Read RUSI article Ransomware: A Life and Death Form of Cybercrime https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/ransomware-life-and-death-form-cybercrime       Read about the impact of ransomware on the UK: https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/occasional-papers/ransomware-victim-insights-harms-individuals-organisations-and-society     Read Ransomware: A Life and Death Form of Cybercrime from RUSI: https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/ransomware-life-and-death-form-cybercrime   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Can Britain and the EU step up to Trump's bullying and order the disorder via increasing sanctions and possibly confiscating currently frozen Russian assets and using them to fund Ukrainian defence? This is certainly the question of the day and we at Disorder tackle it via our first live show recorded on March 21 at the famous Frontline Club in London. Jason Pack was joined by Sir Bill Browder and Stephanie Baker, author of Punishing Putin.     The trio discussed the role of sanctions in deterring Putin, and whether the West can finally go further and use seized Russian funds. Plus: Trump's role – and if Europe (alongside Starmer and Carney) will finally step up to the plate. And they finish with listener questions addressing everything from what happens when Putin dies to if sanctions even work in the first place.    Producer: George McDonagh  Executive Producer: Neil Fearn    Subscribe to our Substack (for free, or get the PAID version to get a discount on our March 21st event with Bill Browder and Stephanie Baker at the Frontline Club): https://natoandtheged.substack.com/    Show Notes Links:    Hear our other recent episode with Sir Bill https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/84604876351c72eed9ce64fd4031a343     Hear our previous episode with Stephanie Baker https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/d478c812a95d36c7ee6bf7c7beef4ccf     For more on Stephanie visit https://stephaniebakerwriter.com/     Read Sir Bill's piece calling for Russian asset seizure:  https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-14418689/UK-Europe-Russia-frozen-billions-Ukraine-noble-cause.html     And his article co-authored with a leading Ukranian lawyer, Yulia Ziskina calling for seizure of Russia's state assets: https://www.usnews.com/opinion/articles/2024-11-22/if-trump-cuts-ukraine-aid-the-west-should-seize-russian-assets     Watch United States has ‘abandoned Ukraine' | Bill Browder https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ImN1fFJKHIc  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

This is the second part of a two-part interview with Julia Ebner -- the princess of extremist infiltration, the queen of counter radicalization, and author of Going Mainstream: Why Extreme Ideas are Spreading, and What We Can Do About It.    Please listen to Part 1 before coming to this episode.  In this conversation, Julia and Jason focus on how extreme ideas enter the mainstream and the implications of the concept of the ‘Overton Window' [more on that in the links below] for how the boundaries of acceptable political discourse change as ever more extreme ideas are articulated. Jason pushes Julia to draw on her undercover work among the incel community to explain their worldview and the centrality of the concept of being red-pilled.     And as they Order the Disorder, they discuss the importance of defending expertise in public discourse and Julia proposes an institution that could prevent people from falling into conspiracy theories.    Producer: George McDonagh  Executive Producer: Neil Fearn    Subscribe to our Substack (for free, or get the PAID version to get a discount on our March 21st event with Bill Browder and Stephanie Baker at the Frontline Club): https://natoandtheged.substack.com/    Show Notes Links:  For an explanation of the Overton window visit https://theweek.com/102517/the-overton-window-explained   For more on Julia visit https://www.julia-ebner.com/speaker   For a great video about her life and experiences: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Y4Kv6P6VII   Get Julia's book ‘Going Mainstream: Why extreme ideas are spreading, and what we can do about it' - https://www.amazon.co.uk/Going-Mainstream-extreme-ideas-spreading/dp/1804183784   Read Jason's article, ‘A lizard person's guide to US election conspiracy theories' in the New European: https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/a-lizard-persons-guide-to-us-election-conspiracy-theories/   Listen: Episode 77 - The System is Rigged: Conspiracy theories and the revenge of the losers https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/cc41cbf3e1c05fb8a696e0faad151283 This is the second part of a two-part interview with Julia Ebner -- the princess of extremist infiltration, the queen of counter radicalization, and author of Going Mainstream: Why Extreme Ideas are Spreading, and What We Can Do About It.    Please listen to Part 1 before coming to this episode.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Extremist ideologies and the conspiracy vehicles that carry them are now heard throughout mainstream social and political discourse. Whether it's Trump parroting falsehoods about migrants eating dogs and cats or Robert F. Kennedy Jr. parroting debunked claims about how vaccines cause autism, extreme viewpoints cloaked in conspiracy theories are now frequently articulated by those in offices of power.     How has this happened? When did the extremes become mainstream? And what draws people to these radical ways of thinking in the first place? Then as we delve deeper why do extremists so frequently rely on conspiracy theories to articulate their political programs? Why don't they come out and just voice the radical or exclusionary political program directly? Why do they conceal it via complex conspiracy theories about Lizards, Pedophilia rings, and a Jewish plot to dilute the purity of the white race?    This is the first episode of a two-part interview with Julia Ebner -- the princess of extremist infiltration, the queen of counter radicalization, and author of Going Mainstream: Why Extreme Ideas are Spreading, and What We Can Do About It.    The duo delve into the intricate relationship between conspiracy theories and extremist ideologies. Analysing how conspiracy theories serve as a unifying force among various radical groups, by providing a framework for scapegoating and explaining grievances. Plus: the psychological appeal of conspiracy myths, their role in modern political movements, and the historical context that shapes these narratives    Producer: George McDonagh  Executive Producer: Neil Fearn    Subscribe to our Substack (for free, or get the PAID version to get a discount on our March 21st event with Bill Browder and Stephanie Baker at the Frontline Club): https://natoandtheged.substack.com/    Show Notes Links:  For more on Julia visit https://www.julia-ebner.com/speaker   Get Julia's book ‘Going Mainstream: Why extreme ideas are spreading, and what we can do about it' - https://www.amazon.co.uk/Going-Mainstream-extreme-ideas-spreading/dp/1804183784   Read Jason's article, ‘A lizard person's guide to US election conspiracy theories' in the New European: https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/a-lizard-persons-guide-to-us-election-conspiracy-theories/   Listen: Episode 77 - The System is Rigged: Conspiracy theories and the revenge of the losers https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/cc41cbf3e1c05fb8a696e0faad151283   For a great video about her life and experiences: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Y4Kv6P6VII     Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In this special episode of Disorder, you can hear some of the highlights from our first ever live show event at RUSI. To start things off, Jason Pack was joined on stage by his fellow co-hosts, Alex Hall Hall, Jane Kinninmont and Arthur Snell. The panel discussed how they experience Disorder in their own lives, as well as what they perceive makes this historic period novel.     Then, Jane and Alex departed the stage, while Arthur and Jason were joined by Neil Melvin, RUSI's Director of International Security. The trio investigated if Trump actually has a grand strategy and is deliberately accelerating the long durée US pivot to Asia or if he is merely a strategic-less deliberate Disorderer. Then the trio looked at the role Europe plays in global security, while Neil and Jason had an agreeable -- and not even staged -- disagreement about the ideal position the UK can play in global security  – should the UK continue cozying up to the US? Or seek to counterbalance it by forging new relationships and convening a coalition of orderers?    Lastly, the recording ends with a Lord of the Rings-themed question from a Mega-Ordering audience member.  If you would like to hear the rest of the audience questions and have access to the full recording, please join the pay for substack.    Producer: George McDonagh  Executive Producer: Neil Fearn    Subscribe to our Substack (paid members can listen to the whole unedited event including listener q and a): https://natoandtheged.substack.com/    Show Notes Links:  More on the RUSI Disorder partnership - https://www.rusi.org/news-and-comment/rusi-news/rusi-announces-partnership-disorder-podcast     Become RUSI members for more of their brilliant content:  https://my.rusi.org/membership.html     And From Neil Melvin Read:  Europe's attitude to Trump is dangerously naive. He demands action, not words: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/12/21/europes-attitude-trump-dangerously-naive-he-demands-action/     And for more on Neil's bio: https://www.rusi.org/people/melvin   Read Jane's piece about OSCE's potential role - https://europeanleadershipnetwork.org/commentary/its-time-to-use-the-osce/  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Forget Christianity, Judaism, New Age Spirituality, and Buddhism, a new type of religion drives 21st century Western thought. It goes by the shadowy name of Neoliberalism: the commodification of everything; Markets and the private sector ascendent; The deliberate attempt to reduce – especially through privatisation and austerity – state power, regulatory capacity, and government's ability to influence the economy. Over the past few decades, from Thatcher and Reagan, to Blair and Clinton, the whole world was incentivized to embrace neoliberal reforms. The result? Our public services are crumbling. Governments have lost the ability to build roads and hospitals. Governments are no longer driving cutting edge innovation. And a new class of super rich neoliberal oligarchs – Musk, the Koch brothers, Bezos, Zuckerburg, and the cryptobros – are spreading Disorder.    To help us find governmental Order amidst all this privatized Disorder, Jason is joined by George Monbiot -- Guardian columnist and co-author of ‘The Invisible Doctrine: The Secret History of Neoliberalism (& How It Came to Control Your Life)'.    In their conversation, the duo chart the evolution of neoliberalism and how it has shifted core governance functions (like transport, health care, and security) from the public sector to private enterprises, leading to a new form of oligarchy. Plus: they look at the failures of centrist politicians to come up with compelling alternatives and they hypothesize about the psychological motivations of the wealthy elite.    Finally, as they Order the Disorder, they put forward the need for a new political narrative that emphasises community and solidarity - especially on a local level.    Producer: George McDonagh  Executive Producer: Neil Fearn    Subscribe to our Substack (for free, or get the PAID version to get a discount on our March 21st event with Bill Browder and Stephanie Baker at the Frontline Club): https://natoandtheged.substack.com/    Show Notes Links:  Get George Monbiot and Peter Hutchison's book The Invisible Doctrine: The Secret History of Neoliberalism (& How It Came to Control Your Life) - https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/455534/the-invisible-doctrine-by-hutchison-george-monbiot-and-peter/9780241635902     For more on the New Books Network which runs lots of podcasts about every sort of topic - https://newbooksnetwork.com/     And for an NBN podcast on the historic origins of neo-liberalism check out: https://newbooksnetwork.com/neoliberalism       Read George's piece - Trump and Musk have launched a new class war. In the UK, we must prepare to defend ourselves - https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/jan/19/donald-trump-elon-musk-class-war-uk-us-oligarchies-democracy     Listen back to our episode with Harvey Whitehouse (start with P1) - https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/36cb340116979a4aa2dfdca524988d27     And buy his book out now in paperback: https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/451443/inheritance-by-whitehouse-harvey/9781529159158   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

When it comes to Russia, Trump's America appears on the verge of a major foreign policy U-turn. A couple of weeks ago, Trump called Zelenskyy a dictator and lyingly claimed that Ukraine had started the war. Then there was the February 28 ‘Oval Office Ambush' heard round the world. Don't forget that after years of isolating and sanctioning Russia over its invasion of Ukraine, Team Trump met face to face with the Russian Foreign Minister in Saudi and now appears ready to do direct business with Russia and to be actively seeking to humiliate the Ukrainians.   Despite these worrying moves, at the moment, the U-turn remains hypothetical… all words, not yet binding actions. So… how seriously should we take this perspective shift? Does the ‘Vance/Trump Oval Office Ambush' change everything? And what are the implications for Europe and its allies if America actually switches sides to support Russia long term?   To discuss this perilous moment, we're joined again by Sir Bill Browder, a successful investor, a globally acclaimed author, and a famous philanthropist/humanitarian advocate. Browder's tireless advocacy for holding dictators and their henchman to account is widely known. He was a guest on the Disorder programme in Ep 26, a few days after his friend Alexei Navalny was murdered by Putin. [NB: the interview at the core of this episode was recorded on Feb 26 before the Oval Office Trump/Zelenskyy/Vance meeting.]     Today, Jason and Sir Bill discuss the transactional nature of Trump 2.0 and the seek to work out whether the recently announced Ukraine mineral deal actually amounts to a hill of beans. Browder emphasizes the unpredictability of the situation, the moral implications of Trump's proposed U-turn.   Finally: as they Order the Disorder, Bill and Jason discuss the practicalities of how to turn confiscate currently frozen Russian assets and use them to fund Ukrainian defence.   Producer: George McDonagh Executive Producer: Neil Fearn   Subscribe to our Substack (for free, or get the PAID version to attend our March 11th event at RUSI): https://natoandtheged.substack.com/   Show Notes Links:   Jason's substack on the the Oval Office Trump/Vance ambush of Zelenskyy: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/p/he-may-not-be-a-russian-agent-but   For a podcast produced out of Kyiv and dedicated just to the War in Ukraine: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/history-in-the-making-the-war-in-ukraine/id1752915858   Watch Bloomberg Editor Javier Blas on the fact that Ukraine doesn't have any significant rare earths: https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=nqJ6Vgetyn8&t=23s&fbclid=IwY2xjawIuZ8ZleHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHfHqQQ2oA1u0f9dwlY57utRKDAlMk3uustcJ_QaiEBTeO2Duhzu5d1guUA_aem_CogDpEa6G7WcwC-7R5q6DQ   Read the FT explainer of the US-Ukraine Mineral deal: https://www.ft.com/content/1890d104-1395-4393-a71d-d299aed448e6   Listen to our previous episode with Sir Bill Browder: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/a36160dede2b990a59c34c3c4e8eeece    Read Sir Bill's piece calling for Russian asset seizure: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-14418689/UK-Europe-Russia-frozen-billions-Ukraine-noble-cause.html   And his article co-authored with a leading Ukranian lawyer, Yulia Ziskina calling for seizure of Russia's state assets: https://www.usnews.com/opinion/articles/2024-11-22/if-trump-cuts-ukraine-aid-the-west-should-seize-russian-assets   Watch United States has ‘abandoned Ukraine' | Bill Browder https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ImN1fFJKHIc   For more on illicit funds and foreign interference, listen to our recent episode with Peter Geoghegan: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/a7b4de27e0e05e297d97a505357d7050   Part 1 & 2 with Tom Burgis on the issue of UK's permissiveness over foreign political financing https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/e003625c25e8ce63dda398369bfea54b / https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/2ccf0f088b7679b5b053679466f6a42d Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Today, Jason and Alexandra answer some probing listener questions. They discuss the role of the UK in global politics, and the implications of Brexit. Dissect the challenges of maintaining progressive values amidst backlash, and the potential for Keir Starmer's leadership in navigating the UK's future relationship with the EU. They finish by talking about tax breaks for billionaires, and why following the money is important to understanding the Disorder we are living through.    Producer: George McDonagh  Executive Producer: Neil Fearn    Subscribe to our Substack to get details of our March 11th event at RUSI: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Description:  As Trump and his cronies attempt to tear down all the checks and balances which have traditionally governed how the Executive relates to other branches of American governance, especially over the issue of impoundment, will the Courts or Congress genuinely stand up? If they don't, or are unable to, is America facing a genuine constitutional crisis? Or is the issue not so much a constitutional crisis but a coordination one - and because we're in an era of peak disorder – Congress, the Courts, the Dems, popular opposition, protesters, Lincoln Project people, business advocates of non-monopolistic competition – aren't able to coordinate coherently enough to make a difference? Also why are there not massive popular protests across America, or is now not the right time for them?    This week, Jason and Alex unpack these issues and more as they try to navigate listeners through the choppy seas of peak Disorder washing over the world. They reflect on the impact of recent Trump policies to defund USAID and undermine Ukraine, debating whether there's any real coherent end goal to these radical policies beyond strewing Disorder. They also debate whether Trump's America First agenda makes America stronger or weaker. Jason explains the importance of Russell Vought within Trump's team, while arguing that Neo-populism isn't actually about any real solutions or making America Stronger, but is merely about increasing the ‘Disorder and Distraction quotient' to keep the Neo-populists in power.    Meanwhile, Alex and Jason argue that the Democratic Party needs to coalesce around a single ‘leader of the opposition' type-figure to prosecute the case against Trump's actions. They also dive into Lala-land with their alter-egos, Xela Llah Llah and Nosaj Kcap. They finish not by Ordering the Disorder, but by diagnosing exactly why the world is living through peak Disorder.    Producer: George McDonagh  Executive Producer: Neil Fearn    Subscribe to our Substack (for free, or get the PAID version to attend our March 11th event at RUSI): https://natoandtheged.substack.com/    Show Notes Links  To examine the real architect of the Disorder, listen to the Today Explained episode about Russell Vought https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/today-explained/id1346207297?i=1000693687429     To grasp the constitutional implications of what is transpiring, listen to the excellent 538 podcast with Galen Druke interviewing constitutional law professor Peter Shane https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/trumps-theory-of-presidential-power/id1077418457?i=1000693800713     Read more from RUSI: by Jack Watling ‘US Clarity Underscores Ukraine's Peril', https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/us-clarity-underscores-ukraines-peril    Also by Jack but in the Guardian: ‘As the US walks away, Europe needs to step up for Ukraine. But does it have the will?', https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/feb/16/us-europe-ukraine-russia-peace-analysis     And from Neil Melvin (our guest on our March 11 live recording) ‘Securing Ukraine is the UK's Challenge, but It Needs to be Done Right', https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/securing-ukraine-uks-challenge-it-needs-be-done-right  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In Munich last weekend, J.D. Vance shocked Europe with his speech castigating Europeans as having the ‘wrong values' and not being ‘democratic'. Meanwhile, Trump and co. are doing the very democratic thing by being in Saudi Arabia and negotiating with Putin over Ukraine behind Zelenskyy's back – possibly presaging ‘a deal' that will be struck excluding Ukrainian input at all.     As this episode drops, European leaders are finally trying to get out in front of events by meeting in Paris in an emergency summit, to counter with their own ‘peace proposal' that would actually be beneficial for Ukraine's future. Disorderly much?    In this episode of Disorder, Jane Kinninmont tries to navigate these complexities in conversation with Jason Pack, as she brings us her personal reportage from last weekend's Munich Security Conference. During her visit there, we hear three on-the-spot interviews (Serhiy Leschenko, advisor to Zelensky's chief of staff Andriy Yermak; Todor Tagarev, former Bulgarian defence minister; and Ottilia Anna Maunganidze, head of special projects at the Institute of Security Studies) - discussing the shifting dynamics of US-European relations, the implications of Trump 2.0 on the Ukraine conflict, and the urgent need for Europe to reassess its defense priorities in light of potential US unpredictability. Plus: in an attempt to Order the Disorder, what can be done to foster unity among European nations?    Producer: George McDonagh  Executive Producer: Neil Fearn    Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/    Show Notes Links    Read more from RUSI: by Jack Watling ‘US Clarity Underscores Ukraine's Peril', https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/us-clarity-underscores-ukraines-peril    Also by Jack but in the Guardian: ‘As the US walks away, Europe needs to step up for Ukraine. But does it have the will?', https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/feb/16/us-europe-ukraine-russia-peace-analysis     And from Neil Melvin (our guest on our March 11 live recording) ‘Securing Ukraine is the UK's Challenge, but It Needs to be Done Right', https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/securing-ukraine-uks-challenge-it-needs-be-done-right  For more on Jane's interviewees and their outputs:  Serhiy Leschenko, advisor to Zelensky's chief of staff Andriy Yermak - https://x.com/leshchenkos?lang=en  Todor Tagarev, former Bulgarian defence minister: his bio here - https://europeanleadershipnetwork.org/person/todor-tagarev/   And see his recent ECFR piece “prepare for the worst - four scenarios for Ukraine under Trump 2.0” -https://ecfr.eu/article/prepare-for-the-worst-four-scenarious-for-ukraine-under-trump-2-0/    Ottilia Anna Maunganidze, head of special projects at the Institute of Security Studies, headquartered in South Africa with offices in Senegal, Kenya and Ethiopia -  https://issafrica.org/author/ottilia-anna-maunganidze  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

With a major war raging in Europe, a seemingly more expansionist Trump in the Whitehouse, and China's long held desire to invade Taiwan, is Britain prepared militarily?     It's hard to tell. The current Labour government is still refusing to set out in detail its plans for Defence, including when it might increase spending to 2.5% of GDP. Instead, we are left waiting for the publication of a new Strategic Defence Review. So are Starmer and co missing an opportunity to be mega Orderers?    To understand these issues and more, for our first episode in partnership with the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), we're joined by Matthew Savill. He's the Director of Military Sciences at the London-based defence and security think tank. His team focusses on understanding trends in modern warfare and its impact on military strategy, capabilities and planning. Before joining RUSI he spent over 20 years in national security roles in government, starting as an intelligence analyst, and later moving on to policy and operations, working in both the Ministry of Defence and the UK Cabinet Office, and on deployments in Iraq, the Middle East and Afghanistan.    Jason and Matthew discuss on the UK's role in defense and security, the challenges faced by the UK in military procurement and capabilities, and the need for the UK to maintain its status as a major global player. They compare the approaches in France and the UK, and whether we're in a potential pre-war era, and whether Britain needs to maintain independent military capacities.    As they Order the Disorder, they look at whether AI could be the way Britain becomes Mega Orderers, and Matthew leaves with a message for Starmer: invest in people.    Producer: George McDonagh  Executive Producer: Neil Fearn    Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/    Show Notes Links  More on our partnership with RUSI - https://www.rusi.org/news-and-comment/rusi-news/rusi-announces-partnership-disorder-podcast     Read Matthew's analysis, Starmer's New National Security Adviser: A Consequential Choice   - https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/starmers-new-national-security-adviser-consequential-choice     Read Matthew's piece, A Hollow Force? Choices for the UK Armed Forces - https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/hollow-force-choices-uk-armed-forces     Read The Disintegrated Review? Britain and the Ukraine Crisis by Matthew https://wavellroom.com/2022/03/14/the-disintegrated-review/     Our episode on AI with Marc Warner - https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/3f615a6ab068a88f5dcd8d444dbbb60f     Our episode with Jonathan Powell - https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/94c9f3ec23902d3f606bffb43dc39928   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

We're entering a new age of political influence, where money generates attention, and attention generates influence. In this meta-verse, old fashion regulations about lobbying and advertising are no longer suffiecnet and people like Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg rule the roost. So, what can be done?    To find out, Jane Kinninmont is joined by returning guest Peter Geoghegan, an Irish writer, journalist, and director of Democracy for Sale. The duo discuss: the pervasive influence of money in UK politics, how money buys attention and then indirectly influence, and this constellations implications for democracy. Peter tells Jane about the rise of super donors in UK politics and how social media algorithms spread Disorder.    To finish, they look at how to Order the Disorder. Peter pushes for transparency in governance, and tells Kier Starmer to put a spending cap on individual's political donations.    Producer: George McDonagh  Executive Producer: Neil Fearn    Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/    Show Notes Links    Hear our Previous episode with Peter - https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/a50fd0d6c8ad45567cac6b47cf060d4e     Peter's website - https://www.petergeoghegan.com/     Peter's substack - https://democracyforsale.substack.com/     RUSI's Centre for Finance and Security specialises in the intersection of finance and global security. Their research includes work exploring the nature of the threat from global illicit flows, the harm they cause and how best to respond - https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/research-groups/centre-for-finance-and-security     Listen to Ezra Klein talking about the attention cycle - https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/democrats-are-losing-the-war-for-attention-badly/id1548604447?i=1000684362481     Read Anne Applebaum's piece on Musk and political interference in Europe https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2025/03/musk-tech-oligarch-european-election-influence/681453/   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Disorder is a podcast where we hate being right. Totally hate it. Jason truly loves being wrong.  But fudge and fiddlesticks. Seems he is right again. The thing with neo-populists is that they don't so much have policy agendas and goals, they just seek to disorder the universe by say – proposing to fire in a haphazard way 2 million U.S. government employees, or forcing out top FBI officials, or appointing officials for Senate confirmation to head government agencies that have overtly said they want to dismantle those specific agencies, or by randomly proposing to deport Palestinians from Gaza to Jordan against their will.    On today's Emergency Cast, Jane and Jason spontaneously convene to deal with peak disorder and delve into all the interlocking crises, dead catting, plane crashing, impounding, tariff barrier erecting, and AID stopping that has come to a head during Trump's Second Week of his Second Term.    In the Ordering the Disorder segment, Jane wonders how much of the world will respond by trying to figure out how to decouple - slowly, gradually, cautiously – from the U.S. because U.S. politics does not exactly seem at its most stable. And Jason muses that Canada, Mexico, the UK and the EU could have chosen to present a united front to Trump, but appear to have elected not to.        Producer: George McDonagh  Executive Producer: Neil Fearn    Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/    Show Notes Links       This is a most compelling podcast from the 538 about the ways in which the Trump Presidency threatens the constitutional balance of powers and how the issue of Impoundment is at the very core of the structural and legal threat of Trumpism to 're-do' the underlying structures of America: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/fivethirtyeight-politics/id1077418457?i=1000687276109     From the Washington Post, ‘Senior U.S. official exists after rift with Musk Allies of Payment System': https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2025/01/31/elon-musk-treasury-department-payment-systems/    From CNN, ‘Inside 45 hours of chaos: The brief life and quick death of Trump's federal spending freeze': https://www.cnn.com/2025/01/29/politics/inside-brief-life-trump-federal-spending-freeze/index.html    From CNN, ‘Trump suggests his plan for Gaza Strip is to ‘clean out the whole thing”':   https://www.cnn.com/2025/01/25/politics/trump-gaza-strip-jordan-egypt/index.html?fbclid=IwY2xjawIJDhZleHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHfyYNmWDBz3iKiscGQHjvHQx_ZfwOPriV_8VGZmlxTh1JhZ-_NiNKbntsw_aem_rjBE8gcyRVXKVXMhTc-mAQ     From Congressional Democrats, ‘Background on Unlawful Impoundment in President Trump's Executive Orders' https://democrats-appropriations.house.gov/news/fact-sheets/background-unlawful-impoundment-president-trumps-executive-orders   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In this episode, Jason and Alex tackle some probing listener questions. They return to a theme from previous episodes (especially the previous episode with Marcel Dirsus): whether today's autocratic regimes (China, Russia, Iran) are actually as strong as they appear or might be weaker than we imagine. In response to multiple listen questions on this theme, Alex and Jason debate the cultural and economic missteps of the center-left and the importance of addressing real voter concerns about the pace of social and culture change in the face of rising populism.    Then the Disorder programme pushes out the envelope a bit exploring: the significance of secrecy in intelligence and diplomacy, the political realignment of blue-collar workers, and the looming threat of a cryptocurrency bubble.    Producer: George McDonagh  Executive Producer: Neil Fearn    Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/    Show Notes Links    For more on our Partnership with RUSI: https://www.rusi.org/news-and-comment/rusi-news/rusi-announces-partnership-disorder-podcast     Alex's article on the resemblance of Donald Trump to a Tituskhy: https://www.bylinesupplement.com/p/donald-trump-is-assembling-a-titushky     Listen to our episode on China's economy: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/eaa3d94ed88eb3142a9f4ed571fe4a1f     Listen to our episode with Marcel Dirsus: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/bcd89a117331e217c82af1d018e28d9e     Hear Jason on The Bunker talking about post-Assad Syria and the Middle East in the age of Trump - https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-bunker/id1496246490?i=1000685022934   Jason was interviewed about backgammon and Gambling regulation by Sigma one of the leading Magazines in the e-gaming space, Sigma: https://sigma.world/news/the-art-of-risk/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

During his second inaugural speech, Trump declared January 20th, 2025 as Liberation Day. His indoor inauguration kept the hoi polloi of the MAGA world literally out in the cold. Inside, the Rotunda was filled with billionaires and family members. Trump's speech screamed performative sound and fury. "For many years, a radical and corrupt establishment has extracted power and wealth from our citizens, while the pillars of our society lay broken and seemingly in complete disrepair." He then said without a hint of joking, “I was saved by God to make America great again.”  But beyond the pomp and circumstance, what meaningful actions is Trump taking in his first days in office?     Here at the Disorder programme, we try to help Order the Disorder by separating the performative sound and fury of Trump 2.0 from its actual meaningful actions. Jason's hunch is that much of Trump 2.0 will be Kabuki theatre, as many of Trump's so-called signature policies are things that he cannot enact as they violate the constitution, but a large implication of his overall programme is to foster deliberate disorder making the US completely different from other markets on things like EVs, oil and gas exploration, manufacturing, worker safety, and regulation, in general.    To break it all down, in this episode, Jason and Alex reflect on the implications of Trump's pronouncements, the combination of lofty Presidential rhetoric mixed with Trump's standard American carnage imagery, why previous POTUSs and VPs showed up for the Inauguration, and the impact of Trump's executive orders. They also look at the ceasefire in the Middle East and examine if similar tactics might actually work with Russia/Ukraine.     Plus: the depressing and corrosive precedent of Biden's pardons, the shift in Silicon Valley's political allegiance, the role of BitCoin and AI on the American economy, the dynamics between the UK and US, and the role of the UK in a Trumpian World… Why can't Starmer step up and be a mega Orderer?    To Order the Disorder, the pair suggest that Europe and aligned powers get their act together and start mega ordering, without the US in tow. The show concludes as Jason and Alex postulate that constraining Trump will not happen from external forces, but maybe just maybe there is a potential for the excesses of Trumpism to be contained or managed by internal forces within the Republican Party.    Producer: George McDonagh  Executive Producer: Neil Fearn    Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/    Show Notes Links    For more on our Partnership with RUSI: https://www.rusi.org/news-and-comment/rusi-news/rusi-announces-partnership-disorder-podcast     More on Trump's pardons for Jan 6th rioters https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/23/opinion/trump-pardons-bolton-jan-6.html     More on the Hamas-Israel ceasefire https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/23/world/middleeast/hamas-gaza-israel-cease-fire.html     Hear Jason on The Bunker - https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-bunker/id1496246490?i=1000685022934     Jason was interviewed by Sigma one of the leading Magazines in the e-gaming space, Sigma: https://sigma.world/news/the-art-of-risk/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In 2022, Nina Jankowicz was appointed to a brand new role within the US Government – Executive Director of the DHS's Disinformation Governance Board, tasked with tackling disinformation. Within weeks, she was the target of a mass disinformation campaign – driven primarily by Fox News – that put her life, family and career at risk.    In today's episode, Nina joins Arthur Snell to tell that story – and look at the role of dis- and mis-information around the globe. If the US under Trump turns into a deliberate disorderer in the information space, who will be left to order? There is an argument that medium powers like the UK, Brazil and the EU will hold the key to stemming the tide.    Nina is an expert on Russia, Eastern Europe and Ukraine, but in the early 2020s,  she became better known as an expert on disinformation. In 2022, she was appointed by  the Biden administration to the Disinformation Governance Board, part of the United States Department of Homeland Security. But after Fox attacked her personally, the role was pulled. Since then, she has worked in various NGOs and in other foundations, and her current work is with American Sunlight, which tries to counteract disinformation by providing clear information and research to Americans.    In her conversation with Arthur, she shares insights into the challenges of combating misinformation in the current political landscape, the role of media and big tech in amplifying disinformation, and the implications for democracy. Plus: the duo discuss shifting dynamics within the Republican Party regarding Russia, Elon Musk's influence, the rise of deepfake technology, and the gendered dimension to the violence that permeates online spaces.     And then as they try to Order the Disorder, they look at Brazil as a place where disinformation regulation is starting to work, the importance of information literacy, and what's been done educationally in Ukraine, plus – could smaller, stronger online communities be the answer?    Producer: George McDonagh  Executive Producer: Neil Fearn    Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/    Show Notes Links  For more on Nina visit https://www.ninajankowicz.com/     For a CBS explainer on what happened to Nina and the role played by Fox: https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=64&v=z6havT5C9_M&embeds_referring_euri=https%3A%2F%2F     Follow Arthur's pod Behind The Lines https://open.spotify.com/show/4bpdB1iEN3irFueS5CMuq5     Read recent report from the American Sunlight Project on Deepfake Pornography Targeting Members of Congress https://www.americansunlight.org/updates/deepfake-pornography-targeting-members-of-congress     Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

A tentative ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas has been announced by the US and Qatar.  The deal would see a phased release of Israeli hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners and an end to Israeli bombardments. If the first round of conditions are met, the cease fire should continue and culminate in further negotiations for additional swaps of Israeli hostages for Palestinian prisoners. But what's next? Will it hold? And how do we get from this transactional bartering to longer term stability in the region?    To discuss this and more, Alex Hall Hall and Jane Kinninmont final co-host a podcast of their own. They (who both have on-the-ground experience in Gaza) discuss: the challenges of establishing trust between the conflicting parties; the fragility of the deal that is currently being agreed; and the need for Western leaders who are trying to leverage the sides for further progress to also emphasise with local populations' concerns.    Plus: does Trump's strongman diplomacy actually work?    As they Order the Disorder, the ladies discuss the potential for a new Palestinian leadership, the importance of political will/brinksmanship, and the need for a comprehensive approach to rebuilding Gaza – including addressing economic dependencies.    Producer: George McDonagh  Executive Producer: Neil Fearn    Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/    Show Notes Links  Jane's Nov 2023 analysis on need for Europe to chart a political pathway out of the violence - https://europeanleadershipnetwork.org/commentary/europe-and-gaza-political-pathways-out-of-the-violence/    Jane's 2020 article on virtual dialogue with Palestinian youth - https://theelders.org/news/palestinian-perspectives-future    Jane slags off Jared Kushner's approach to “peace” in an oped for Haaretz during Trump 1 - https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/2019-06-16/ty-article-opinion/.premium/jared-kushners-paradigm-busting-mideast-peace-deal-just-wont-work/0000017f-e9a9-d639-af7f-e9ffd4e00000    Read What Gazans Really Think of the War, Who They Blame, and What They Want to Happen Next by Alex https://bylinetimes.com/2024/09/20/gaza-hamas-israel-opinion-poll/     Polling from a youth-led Palestinian polling organisation:  https://institute4progress.org/  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In 2024, the Disorder podcast looked a lot at Ukraine, Syria, Israel-Palestine, India, Bangledesh, and even north Africa… but we didn't devote sufficient time to sub-saharan Africa. So what does Africa look like in the Age of Disorder?    To find out, Jason is joined this week by Professor Clionadh Raleigh. Cliona created Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED) which is a US-based NGO. She is also Professor of Political Violence and Geography in the School of Global Studies at the University of Sussex in the UK.    The duo discuss, how the Second Trump administration with its proposals for tariffs and increased tensions with China might affect Africa. And then muse on the roles of middle powers like Nigeria and Ethiopia in a disordered world, highlighting their internal challenges and regional influences.     Then they turn their attention to the civil war in Sudan, the impact of external forces like the Wagner Group in that region, and the future of American policy towards Africa amidst these challenges. And as they Order the Disorder, Clionadh suggests that we need for a nuanced understanding of local politics and the impact of external influences on African stability, and that women and girls need to be supported as part of this.    Plus, we announce the start of our new partnership with the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI). The world's oldest and the UK's leading defence and security think tank. As part of that partnership we will be featuring research and guests from their network, and regular live events at their base in Whitehall. To attend the first event on March 11th, pay for a Subscription to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/    Producer: George McDonagh  Executive Producer: Neil Fearn    Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/    Show Notes Links  Read: Did Wagner Group prove an effective tool for Russian foreign policy? By RUSI https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/external-publications/did-wagner-group-prove-effective-tool-russian-foreign-policy    Read Has Sudan's Conflict Reached a Turning Point? By RUSI https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/has-sudans-conflict-reached-turning-point    More on Professor Clionadh: https://acleddata.com/team/prof-clionadh-raleigh/     Read ACLED's Raleigh Report from December 2024: https://acleddata.com/2024/12/19/the-raleigh-report-december-2024/    Read Semafor's Predictions for Africa in 2025: https://www.semafor.com/article/01/02/2025/africa-in-2025     RUSI experts in this region are, Dr Joana de Deus Pereira https://www.rusi.org/people/de-deus-pereira, Christopher Hockey https://rusi.org/people/hockey , Michael Jones https://rusi.org/people/jones    Read RUSI's paper, Conclusions Paper: Thematic Research Meeting on the Impacts of Disinformation Campaigns in the Sahel (Southern Neighbourhood) and Effects on Radicalisation and Extremist Movements in the EU: https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/external-publications/conclusions-paper-thematic-research-meeting-impacts-disinformation-campaigns-sahel-southern   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

With Trump due to be inaugurated in less than 15 days, it is high time to come to grips with his foreign policy vision as it can be gleaned from his cabinet appointments. The incoming cabinet appears isolationist, transactional, and lacking a coherent view of what an American-led global system should look like.     This begs the questions: Could Trump 2.0 symbolise a shift in the Republican foreign policy establishment away from the neoconservatism which has dominated it for four decades and towards a novel and novel approach to American foreign policy? Is this new approach filled with internal contradictions? And what do these countervailing wings of Trumpism mean for Trump 2.0 Administration's approach to American adversaries such as Russia, China and Iran?    To investigate, Jason is joined by Dr Alan Mendoza, founder and Executive Director of The Henry Jackson Society -- a Westminster think tank known for proposing bold and neo-conservative solutions to the crises facing Britain and the world.    The duo begin by reflecting on the historical significance of figures like Senator Henry “Scoop” Jackson(D-WA) and the historical inversions represented by Trump's isolationist and transactional approach to global order. Then: Alan and Jason embark on an around the world tour investigating the current structural weaknesses of Russia under Putin, the fragility of dictatorships in general, the growing threat posed by China, strategies for confronting it, and the importance of deterrence in global politics.    After the ad break Alan and Jason look at: Britain's historical and current role in the Middle East, asking, could Britain compensate for Trumpian aloofness by seeking to reassert a leadership in the MENA region? They explore the influence of Iran as a destabilizing force, the situation in Gaza, the challenges posed by Hamas, and the need for an activist and bold British foreign policy to draw on Britain's unique strengths and secure her interests.    As the Order the Disorder, Alan proposes that Britain should invest more in cultivating hard power, while Jason stresses the need for upping Britain's capacity in the sanctions space. Finally, if he were King for a day, Alan would established a new international institution just for functioning democracies – that could work adjacent to the UN – and act as a coordinating forum for the world's ordering powers.    Producer: George McDonagh  Executive Producer: Neil Fearn    Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/  In this week's substack we will have extra audio content about Hamas disinformation about Gazan civilian casualties during the Israel-Hamas war    Show Notes Links    Watch/read interview with Alan about Putin: https://www.the-sun.com/news/13187114/putin-rule-power-russia-mafia/amp/     Read Restoring Deterrence: Destabilising the Iranian Regime by the Henry Jackson Society https://henryjacksonsociety.org/publications/restoring-deterrence-destabilising-the-iranian-regime/     Read Timothy Snyder on Trump, Russia and Ukraine https://www.theguardian.com/books/2025/jan/01/timothy-snyder-trump-musk-russia-ukraine-putin     Listen to our episode on Canada's role in the world: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/601e6a1721995fa854010c309c11ab24     Listen to our episode on China's economy: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/eaa3d94ed88eb3142a9f4ed571fe4a1f     Listen to our episode with Marcel Dirsus: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/bcd89a117331e217c82af1d018e28d9e     Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

From the Trump election win to the ongoing conflicts across the Middle East, Sudan and Ukraine… 2024 was certainly a year full of Disorder. But what about 2025? Is there any realistic hope that it could be more orderly? Well maybe there is! And maybe the time has come to take more seriously the *potential* advantages of certain Trump policy proposals. (or maybe not? hahahah)    In this episode, we continue our spotlight on Hebrew music as it is still Hannukah and the tune we start out with asks the question ‘What will happen in the new year? We have to wait and see'. Jason is joined by fan favourite Jane Kinninmont to discuss the past year: reflecting on the myriad challenges faced by Orderers. They dissect the most Disordering events of 2024 as well as providing some hypotheticals like the various dogs that didn't bark: the assassination attempt against Trump leading to an American civil war or a hot war between Israel and Iran emerging due to a miscalculation.    Plus: what is the background of Susan Wiles, who is she, what stock does she come from, and what is her likely role in the incoming Trump government (could she be a power behind the throne and a real orderer)? We also discuss the centrality of the immigration issue to the global neo-populist movement.    Meanwhile, Jason wonders: has the center-left got it all wrong? Have we been too biased on the pod in 2024 in cheerleading for Starmer and American centrists? This chain of thought culminates in some musings on Angela Merkel's leadership, and her missteps, and the influence of conspiracy theories in popular culture. The show ends predictability by our discussing how each of us can help to order the disorder in 2025, emphasizing the importance of civic engagement and individual empowerment to help drive positive policies.    Producer: George McDonagh  Executive Producer: Neil Fearn    Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/      Show Notes Links    For more about our Glaswegian Fan Favourite Jane Kinninmont: https://europeanleadershipnetwork.org/person/jane-kinninmont/     And her recent fascinating article in The Times of India ‘Ayatollah after Assad': https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/blogs/toi-edit-page/ayatollah-after-assad/     Alex has written this great overview article about the situation in Georgia from her recent trip:  https://bylinetimes.com/2024/12/17/the-west-will-regret-abandoning-the-georgian-people-to-the-clutches-of-russia/    If you like the way the Disorder Pod sounds check out ‘Can a steel town survive if its furnaces are turned off? – podcast'  where the reporting and the audio production are done by our producer George McDonagh: https://www.theguardian.com/news/audio/2024/dec/19/can-a-steel-town-survive-if-its-furnaces-are-turned-off-podcast      For more of Yoav Oved's music visit his Facebook page https://www.facebook.com/YoavSings/?locale=en_GB     Or instagram https://www.instagram.com/yoavsings/?__d=1       Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

As 2024 draws to a close, Jason and Alex celebrate Chrismukkah (when Christmas and Hanukkah fall on the same date, which is actually a rarer occurrence than you might imagine). They feature some cantorial Hebrew music in the intro and some choral Christmas jingles in the outro. They share their families' Christmas traditions, exploring the differences between American and British celebrations. They also explore the make believe of the contrasting Christmas celebrations of their alter egos, Xela Llah Llah and Nosaj Kcap.    Plus:  Alex's recent trip to Georgia, highlighting the protests against the Georgian Dream government's cancellation of EU membership, and how the West should respond. Also: the plight of the Kurds in Northeastern Syria, the need for a jamboree international conference of aid and capacity building support for Syria, the importance of proactive Western leadership on issues like Georgia and Syria and the potential profound consequences of inaction.     And as they Order the Disorder, they express hope for positive change amidst global disorder. For Xmas Jason wishes for ‘Two NATOs on climate change, one NATO on tax havens, and a partridge in a pear tree,' while Alex wishes for ‘the EU to come up with a way to bypass Hungary and Slovakia and put sanctions on Georgia before the end of the year.'    Producer: George McDonagh  Executive Producer: Neil Fearn    Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/    Show Notes Links  Read more about the plight of the Kurds of Northeastern Syria- https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/16/world/middleeast/kurdish-forces-syria-turkey-isis-america.html    Alex has written this great overview article about the situation in Georgia from her recent trip:  https://bylinetimes.com/2024/12/17/the-west-will-regret-abandoning-the-georgian-people-to-the-clutches-of-russia/    And Arthur Snell has interviewed one of the leading experts on HTS and the Syrian anti-Assad jihadi landscapes: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/inside-hts-what-does-al-jolani-want-and-how-will-they-rule/id1704344656?i=1000680598620    If you like the way the Disorder Pod sounds check out ‘Can a steel town survive if its furnaces are turned off? – podcast'  where the reporting and the audio production are done by our producer George McDonagh: https://www.theguardian.com/news/audio/2024/dec/19/can-a-steel-town-survive-if-its-furnaces-are-turned-off-podcast     For more on Evoke visit https://www.evokemusic.org/     For more of Yoav Oved visit his Facebook page https://www.facebook.com/YoavSings/?locale=en_GB     Or Instagram https://www.instagram.com/yoavsings/?__d=1   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

From its important but underrecognized role in the World Wars of the 20th century to its key advocacy for the UN system, humanitarian aid, peacekeeping, and international treaties, Canada has been a major player in the global ordering sweepstakes.     So what does Canada do when the world's largest trading relationship (Canada's with the United States) no longer necessarily connects it to a trustworthy nation? Can Canada step up and present itself as an independent leader of the free world and a ‘coordinator-in-chief' for other Ordering nations? Will hosting the G7 give Canada some stealth mega ordering mojo?    To discuss that and more, Jason is joined by Marci Surkes, Surkes served as Executive Director of Policy and Cabinet Affairs in the office of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. This turned out to be a very timely conversation as Canadian PM Justin Trudeau visited President-Elect Trump in Mar-a-Lago in late November and noted that Trump's proposed 25% tariffs would decimate the Canadian economy. In response Trump suggested that Canada was ‘ripping off America' to the tune of a 100 billion USD a year and that if Canada wanted tariff free trade it could become the 51st state. This sparked many viral memes.    Amidst this bizarre and yet terrifying backdrop, Jason and Marci explore the upcoming 2025 Canadian election, which may actually play out as a referendum on Trudeau's handling of the Trump presidency. They also discuss leadership challenges to Trudeau within the Liberal Party and the fraught relationship between Canada and India and the pivotal role Canada could play in Global Ordering as it takes on the presidency of the G7 in 2025.     Plus: could there be a budding bromance between Starmer and Trudeau? And as Marci and Jason Order the Disorder, they explore the need for more gender equality across politics and why medium powers like Canada can play a pivotal role on issues like security guarantees and NATO.    Producer: George McDonagh  Executive Producer: Neil Fearn    Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/    Show Notes Links    Listen to an explainer on why Canadian politics has ground to a halt: https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/stalemate-why-the-house-of-commons-has-ground-to-a-halt/id1621425319?i=1000677888744  Listen to Marci's appearance on a panel discussing what Trump means for Canada: https://paulwells.substack.com/p/the-panel-what-trump-means-for-canada?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=804175&post_id=151283084&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=1ruvru&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email  Listen to our Ben Ansell episode about other elections: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/50e9a35e0737bb9d0ddf29460a199c37   Read profile of Melanie Joly: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/04/world/canada/melanie-joly-foreign-affairs-profile.html   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Assad has fallen! The Tyrant is no more! Long live the revolution!    There has been a genuine outpouring of jubilation among Syrians at home and abroad - even the ones working at the Syrian embassy in Moscow who ‘chose' to fly the rebel flag. But the international responses are messier - regional players talk of maintaining Syria's territorial integrity, while several countries welcome the new order with bombing raids (especially Turkey and Israel who are now operating inside Syria to weaken their enemies and occupy buffer zones). Meanwhile, even as Europeans ask whether jihadis will dominate the new Syria, the same European governments (notably Austria) are simultaneously drawing up plans to deport the Syrian refugees seeking asylum in their country -- because it must be safe now, right?    In this bonus episode examining the Post-Assad Syria: From Euphoria to Uncertainty, Jason is joined by our returning Glaswegian champion, Jane Kinninmont. She is just back from an international conference in Doha where she sat one row behind Russia's FM Sergei Lavrov.    Jane and Jason tell stories from their times in Syria… about sweets and about being spied on. They break down all things Syria. Trying to draw lessons from a disorderly past to an orderly future.    We examine: did Russia and Iran throw Assad under a bus? Several things changed in the regional calculus but - primarily they realized the game was up for Assad domestically. To save him they would have needed to commit major forces, and at a time when Israel might well have willing to join the fight to make sure that Iran lost - at least if Iran sent troops. And while those were clearly the major calculations, the “benefits” part of the Russo-Iranian cost-benefit analysis of propping up Assad had also dwindled.   Iran wasn't actually getting so many benefits from Assad -- who spent most of the year trying to stay out of the regional war, avoid confronting Israel and pursue normalisation with Arab states.     The episode ends with Jane and Jason Ordering the Disorder by concluding that the West and the Middle East alike were caught horribly unprepared. Still wounded by the experience of Iraq and Afghanistan, Western countries may shy away from lending serious capacity building assistance to a democratic Syrian led transition process - but fatalism is the wrong approach - the transition is more likely to be more peaceful and more successful if more political and economic resources are invested in it - especially by democratic countries willing to use carrots and sticks.     Producer: George McDonagh  Executive Producer: Neil Fearn    Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/    Show Notes Links    The David Runciman Pod that Jane mentions explaining linear vs cyclical and non-linear conceptions of history: https://www.ppfideas.com/episodes/the-history-of-bad-ideas%3A-the-end-of-history    Jason's appearance on Monocle's The Globalist talking more about the Alawites: https://monocle.com/radio/shows/the-globalist/3495/play/     A great Special Briefing from my former colleagues at MEI about what's next in Syria: https://www.mei.edu/blog/special-briefing-after-assads-fall-whats-next-syria-and-region    Israel, Seeing an Opportunity, Demolishes Syria's Military Assets: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/10/world/middleeast/israel-strikes-syria.html    A visual timeline of the events: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/10/world/middleeast/syria-civil-war-rebels-timeline-assad.html     While international support is crucial, Syrians must lead their country's political transition: https://www.chathamhouse.org/2024/12/while-international-support-crucial-syrians-must-lead-their-countrys-political-transition    Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

This week was par for the course… We are living through Peak Disorder. Two democratic capital cities were convulsed by demonstrations trying to oust their governments. One Middle Eastern regime collapsed, while a neighboring war was paused.     We at the Disorder pod believe that events like the Israeli-Lebanese ceasefire, the fall of Syria to the rebels, the street protests in Georgia in response to claims the election was rigged, the protests in South Korea opposing attempts to impose martial law, the battleground issues of the Irish elections, the spontaneous collapse of the French government, and the pardoning of Hunter Biden are all interrelated. We are most certainly living through the Global Enduring Disorder. In this historic era, events in one part of the world ping pong around and interact in unforeseen ways with events elsewhere, without sufficiently coordinated responses from potential Ordering powers.    On today's episode, we're joined today by friend of the pod, fellow Georgia enthusiast, and former British Diplomat Arthur Snell. Arthur has recently hosted excellent pods on events in Syria and Georgia on his Behind the Lines podcast. (Links below) We recorded most of the episode after the Fall of Aleppo but before the fall of the Assad regime in total. Therefore, we will be having a bonus episode with Jane Kinninmont on Thursday delving into that in specific.    In this ep, Arthur and Jason survey all of these topics, explaining that because of the fundamental principles of our era of Global Enduring Disorder, previously stable looking places like South Korea, are becoming Disorderly. They discuss how memes and themes that are playing out in the UK and US are also rehashed in Ireland. They finish the show by trying to Order the Disorder – contrasting developments in South Korea with those in Georgia, concluding that state capacity and cultural solidarity is more vital now than ever.    Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/    Show Notes Links    Listen to Arthur's podcast episode about Georgia: https://pod.link/1704344656/episode/a654b790f75542d26710235d05c378d7     And his episode on The Fall of Aleppo: https://pod.link/1704344656/episode/08772c26e60e40496a2a235b491f561b     For deeper background to the Syrian Rebel's offensive: https://www.syriaintransition.com/aleppoherewecome     And how events in South Korea are connected to developments in Trump world: https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2024/12/south-korea-martial-law/680864/     And the Irish elections:   https://www.breakingnews.ie/general-election-2024/hutchs-dail-bid-ends-with-him-running-away-from-pandemonium-at-count-centre-1702711.html     Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Do elections work anymore? 2024 was the biggest year of elections in human history. Major contests were held in the UK, US, EU, France, India, Japan, Moldova, Georgia, and elsewhere. Did these elections work? Were they free and fair? Did their outcomes actually represent the authentic will of the people? Is genuine electoral democracy with its checks and balances even possible in the mid-21st century?     Today's guest on Disorder, Ben Ansell holds the contrarian view that democracy is actually alive and well. He asserts that even if we are not happy with recent outcomes, we should still trust the process.     Ben Ansell is Professor of Comparative Democratic Institutions at the University of Oxford and Nuffield College. He was the 2023 BBC Reith Lecturer and the presenter of ‘What's Wrong With Democracy?' by Tortoise Media and ‘Rethink' on BBC Radio 4. His most recent book is ‘Why Politics Fails' and he writes the Substack 'Political Calculus'.     In the episode, Jason and Ben embark on an around-the-world tour to survey this epic year of elections and analyse the state of democracy globally. They look at the key features that have defined this cycle, especially anti-incumbency sentiments.     QUOTE OF THE SHOW ‘This is the only year, 2024, where in every single MAJOR WESTERN country, the incumbents lost votes. They didn't always lose office, but they often did, because when you're losing 5 or 10 % of votes in competitive systems, you're a goner. First off… it looks, if you look at John's FT graph [in the shownotes], things have just got more volatile over the last decade or so anyway. And so that might be just a change among voters, that voters have become more like consumers. I mean, we are all consumers [in our mind sets]. And in most of the countries that have elections in capitalist markets, we [are used to] switching goods all the time. And I suppose there's reason to believe that [moving forward] we might switch parties all the time.'    Jason and Ben delve deeper into the unique case of Georgia, where incumbents have managed to increase their majority despite global trends. The duo also cover the outcomes of the European elections, the implications of criminality as a feature rather than a bug of global neopopulism, and the roles of Russian and Chinese influence operations in election results across the world. The episode concludes with Ben – an optimistic mega-orderer by temperament and intellectual conviction – genuinely Ordering the Disorder by saying that Trump can, and will, be contained and that the institutions of American democracy can actually withstand another Trump term.    Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/    Show Notes Links    FT anti-incumbency graph/article: https://www.ft.com/content/e8ac09ea-c300-4249-af7d-109003afb893     Why Politics Fails https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/444113/why-politics-fails-by-ansell-ben/9780241992753     Rethink: https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p08gt1ry     What's Wrong With Democracy?: https://www.tortoisemedia.com/listen/whats-wrong-with-democracy/     Ben's Substack: https://benansell.substack.com   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Amidst post-election malaise and seasonal depression, Jason is thankful for the Mega-Ordering listeners who sent in their questions to his new address in a bunker underneath the hills of Hampstead (you can reach it by writing to him @ Disordershow@gmail.com). Esther asked ‘To what extent did the Dems actually pander to the woke agenda? Or is that just made up and trumped up by the Republicans since it helps them win points'; Annabelle in Atlanta, Georgia asks ‘Could Taylor Swift solve all the disorder?' while Kerry in the Republic of Georgia asks ‘despite being from rural Vermont, I now feel these days like I barely know America. I do not understand Trump voters. How do we bridge this divide on a practical level?'    Jumping off from these prompts Alex and Jason cover myriad topics including: the potential for conflict between China and Taiwan, whether JD Vance could become President before 2028, the ways we can incorporate the lessons of behavioral economics into political decision-making, and the role of the transgender issue in the recent election campaign. Plus: the challenges for liberal elites in truly understanding Trump voters, if Taylor Swift and other celebrities actually helped or hurt the Dems, and why even in these dark days, we can remain optimistic about the potential success of a collective effort to preserve democracy.        Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/    Show Notes Links    Learn more about the history of Thanksgiving: https://www.britannica.com/topic/Thanksgiving-Day     And the Origins of Turkey: https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2014/11/why-americans-call-turkey-turkey/383225/   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

We have crossed through the looking glass – Up is Down, Disorder is Order, Vice is Virtue, Felony is a Positive, and Rape Convictions are a reason to get a cabinet position. With Trump unsurprisingly appointing disruptors to his administration, Global Disorder beckons. How did we get here? Seemingly because Biden wasn't bold enough in trying to assert order. Is Starmer making the same mistake?    In this episode, Jason and Alex discuss what will happen to the ongoing legal cases against Trump, the forthcoming Trump administration's attempts to disorder and dismantle American institutions and checks and balances, and the likely evolution of the Supreme Court. After a lengthy discussion of the initial proposal of Matt Gaetz's as Attorney General and his subsequent withdrawal, Alex introduces listeners to Xela Llah Llah, her Trump-voting alter-ego who lives on the other side of the looking glass and who will occasionally be coming on the podcast to explain politics from her point of view.    After some wise words from Xela which ‘help us empathize with the other side', Jason and Alex turn their attention back to the UK, looking at whether Starmer's appearance at COP means anything, and how (if at all) he can push to become a more prominent global leader on a range of issues. In a rather downbeat and informal Ordering the Disorder segment, we examine the future of multilateralism and the global political order (is there any such thing anymore?)    Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/    Show Notes Links  Matt Gaetz's Bio and why Criminality leads to loyalty: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-daily/id1200361736?i=1000677307816     On Matt Gaetz's replacement Pam Bondi: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/21/us/politics/pam-bondi-attorney-general-trump.html     And for a Trump Cabinet Tracker: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/us/politics/trump-administration-cabinet-appointees.html     Also a link back to last week's episode discussing how Starmer should be bolder: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/ep83-trump-derangement-syndrome-with-the-two-matts/id1706818264?i=1000677421360   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The Post-Mortem autopsy continues. How could liberal elites have had eight and half years to prepare for the twenty thousand tonne train barrelling down the tracks right at them and not been able to take sufficient evasive action? Who are these clowns? Do they deserve what is coming? What can studying years of Brexit Fatigue, Orban Exhaustion, and Netanyahu Nihilism, teach us about both how this Trumpian travesty has happened and the likely disorderly evolution of peak Neopopulism in America? And what is the antidote to Trump Derangement Syndrome?  Jason needs a double dose.    In this episode, Jason is joined by Matt Kelly and Matt d'Ancona – the hosts of The New European's ‘The Two Matts' podcast. They discuss the abysmal state of the world and Keir Starmer's inability to lead with vision. They review and assess the rise of neopopulism in both the UK and the US. The conclusion is that the goose is cooked. Complacency and a lack of bold messaging has led to the evisceration of the centre-left globally. Jason even questions if he is of the centre-left anymore, concluding he may simply be a disillusioned and increasingly radical centrist. While the Two Matts share bon mot about recent horrific developments in Britain, Jason explores some lessons from Hungary and Israel, which may possibly shed some light on the likely future trajectory of neopopulism in America. Delving briefly into the shocking and depressing cabinet appointments trickling out of MAGA world, the Two Matts and Jason also reflect on the social legacy of the Trump era and its lasting impact on Western political discourse. In place of Ordering the Disorder (which may no longer be possible as Disorder has already won), The Two Matts answer lightening round questions about the most macabre moments of Trump-iness and some of the humorous aspects of the challenges ahead.    Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/    Show Notes Links  Get the Two Matts podcast - https://podfollow.com/2matts     Read the latest edition of the New European here: https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/edition/the-beast-unleashed/     Read Jason's article, ‘A lizard person's guide to US election conspiracy theories' in the New European: https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/a-lizard-persons-guide-to-us-election-conspiracy-theories/   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The Disorderer-in-Chief is now President-Elect. We can't say we didn't see it coming. In fact, we predicted on the pod and on the substack that he was favourite to win. But as the post-mortems are bouncing around the internet, we must ask what one factor most led to this outcome: was it the economy, was it woke gone overboard, was it misinformation, was it the anti-incumbency mood? Which factors predominated in making Harris unelectable? And how did the Democratic party allow itself to be fooled again and fight the election on losing issues? And Were Americans fooled by false promises? And duped by misinformation about the issues?     And given Trump's resounding victory what is next – will he deport millions of Americans, launch a trade war that drives inflation skywards, and give Musk the keys to the regulatory castle to endlessly enrich himself – and will the American electorate care in 4 years' time?    In this episode, Alex and Jason discuss the major reasons underpinning Trump's win. Including: the cultural shifts in the United States, the fact that Trump's criminality and venality may actually be seen by many of his voters as a positive (i.e. they voted for him not despite the fact that he is a convicted felon but BECAUSE OF IT), and how the Republicans were brutally effective in their advertising and narrative crafting.    Amidst all the tumult, the Disorder pods co-hosts attempt to take stock globally and personally. Alex – a Brit turned American – and Jason – an American turned Brit – reflect on their own changing identities and how the result makes them feel in their guts. Plus: listener questions tackle topics like the future of Europe and NATO, could Trump change the constitution, could Trump actually deliver what people want, what about Bitcoin, and whether America could become yet another Russia-style oligarchy.    Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/    Show Notes Links  Read Alex's Byline Times Article - ‘Democrats Need to Stop Blaming Trump's Voters and Admit the Party Must Change': https://bylinetimes.com/2024/11/07/democrats-need-to-stop-blaming-trumps-voters-and-admit-the-party-must-change/     What the Founding Fathers Would Say About Trump's Win  “I told you so.”: https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/11/08/what-the-founding-fathers-would-say-about-trumps-win/?tpcc=editors_picks&utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Editors%20Picks%2011092024&utm_term=editors_picks     Trump's Historic Chief of Staff Pick, and What Elon Musk Wants Now: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/08/podcasts/trump-chief-of-staff-musk.html     Amsterdam bans protests after 'antisemitic squads' attack Israeli soccer fans:  https://www.reuters.com/world/israels-pm-aware-very-violent-incident-against-israelis-amsterdam-his-office-2024-11-08/   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

After a night of trepidation at Jason's watch party the results came in faster and more furiously than expected… Trump crushed Harris – not just in rural areas or in Red States, but in many middle-class suburbs/exurbs and even with Latino and Black men. This 2024 Trumpian landslide is the biggest re-alignment in American politics since Reagan crushed Carter in 1980. The ‘lumpenproletariat' Trump coalition of 2024 is actually highly dissimilarly economically, socially, ideologically and ethnically to the ‘whitelash' coalition that took him to victory in 2016. How will that affect its Disordering impacts on the global stage?    Jason is joined by party guests -- FP deputy editor Sasha Polakow-Suransky and Jane Kinninmont -- to break down what the results mean for global order.    Sasha shares insights into anti-immigrant sentiment and attempts to channel the angry anti-system voters from his home state of Michigan, while Jane discusses European defense arrangements and is pressed by Jason to provide a sliver of Celtic optimism. They attempt to explain the implications for the rest of the world: the transatlantic relationship, European security, Ukraine, tariff wars, the Middle East (Iran/Gaza), and China. Jason ends the episode with a forlorn farewell. He sees no silver lining, only peak disorder ahead.    Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/  And Pray that the Disorderer-and-Chief doesn't cancel American democracy    Show Notes Links    To Get Sasha's Book ‘Go Back to Where You Came From': https://www.hachettebookgroup.com/titles/sasha-polakow-suransky/go-back-to-where-you-came-from/9781568585932/     Check out his debate-style podcast Counterpoint: https://foreignpolicy.com/podcasts/counterpoint/     On the Demographic shifts and the re-ordering (or rather re-disordering) of American politics from racial/ethnic cleavages onto class lines    On ‘Defending Europe with less America': https://ecfr.eu/publication/defending-europe-with-less-america/?amp     ‘There is hope [maybe if you are Celtic but not if you are Anglo-American] — 10 ways to be prepared and grounded for another Trump presidency': https://wagingnonviolence.org/2024/11/10-things-to-do-if-trump-wins/    On Michigan's Arab voters: https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/10/28/election-michigan-harris-trump-arab-americans-lebanon-war-israel-gaza/?utm_content=gifting&tpcc=gifting_article&gifting_article=ZWxlY3Rpb24tbWljaGlnYW4taGFycmlzLXRydW1wLWFyYWItYW1lcmljYW5zLWxlYmFub24td2FyLWlzcmFlbC1nYXph&pid=OC20506955     And the ‘Uncommitted' movement: https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/08/21/michigan-biden-harris-gaza-uncommitted-arab-vote/?utm_content=gifting&tpcc=gifting_article&gifting_article=bWljaGlnYW4tYmlkZW4taGFycmlzLWdhemEtdW5jb21taXR0ZWQtYXJhYi12b3Rl&pid=OC20506955   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

What do professional ‘futurists' think about global disorder? With our current world seemingly in never ending Disorder that won't be immediately cured by the election results, it can be hard to put your head above the parapet and try to see into the future. Furthermore, given the rapidly changing pace of technology, the 2050s, 2070s, and 2100s feel a long way out. Is it worth trying to forecast and plan for the future? If countries started planning now, could we see an Ordered future?     In this episode of Disorder, Jason opens with his feelings about election day and then hands over to Jane Kinninmont to host Cat Tully, who works with governments, civil society and young leaders around the world to facilitate structured conversations about what the future could and should look like. She is the founder of the School of International Futures, and has previously served in the UK government, working on strategy in the prime minister's office and the Foreign Office.     Jane and Cat delve into the complexities of forecasting the future, discussing the importance of collective foresight in navigating global disorder. They discuss what was and wasn't achieved by the recent UN Summit For The Future, the role of strategic foresight in preparing for potential shocks, and how people around the world are working to push governments beyond short-term populist priories. Finally, they Order the Disorder by talking about the importance of youth engagement, and using futures and foresight methodologies to build a better future rather than viewing the future through the lens of panic and polycrisis.    Producer: George McDonagh  Exec Producer: Neil Fearn    Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/  And Pray that the Disorderer-and-Chief doesn't win    Show Notes Links    The School of International Futures' Implementation Handbook for the wellbeing of future generations: https://soif.org.uk/implementation-handbook/    UK Government's brief guide to futures thinking and foresight: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/635931b18fa8f557d066c1b1/A_Brief_Guide_to_Futures_Thinking_and_Foresight_-_2022.pdf    A great book by Jane McGonagal on training your imagination to think about the future: https://janemcgonigal.com/2021/12/17/imaginable-how-to-see-the-future-coming-and-feel-ready-for-anything-even-things-that-seem-impossible-today/  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

To celebrate Halloween, Jason goes on the Keen On show hosted by friend of the Disorder Pod, Andrew Keen, to talk about America's spooky election and the crazy conspiracy theories that are floating around this election cycle. What does it really mean when people say the 2020 election was stolen or that Bill Gates implants people with microchips via their Covid Vaccines?      Conspiracy theories are not only, not new, they are a core part of how campaigns of social change are articulated. The more radical the change – the French Revolution, the rise of Hitler, or Trump's election—the more paramount the need for conspiracy theories to motivate the required action need to bring it about. Given his recent study of the phenomenon, Jason articulates his view that the conspiratorial rhetoric around this election embodies a new ‘us vs. them' turn in American political life. He urges Andrew and listeners to Read beneath the surface! And Unpack the True hidden meaning of the conspiracy!    Pointing to his New European Article (published this week), Jason concludes: Conspiracy theories are a socially acceptable way of articulating a Politics of Ressentiment – of pitting groups against each other. Just like Brexit, Trump has signalled that he will ‘take back control' from the minorities, Jews, uppity feminists, transgender activists, immigrants, urban lawyers, and all the other groups you hate and feel have too much power. Spooky indeed!    Show Notes Links    Read Jason's New European Article here: https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/a-lizard-persons-guide-to-us-election-conspiracy-theories/     And revisit last week's Disorder episode 76, ‘The System is Rigged: Conspiracy theories and the revenge of the losers' with Joe Uscinski here:  https://open.spotify.com/episode/2nvlI3hR1VFyMbgKaZddyi    Check out Andrew Keen's Substack here: https://keenon.substack.com/     Listen to Andrew podcast on Spotify here: https://open.spotify.com/show/1kkWdvi3xdG7JvTbQ0l9Ho     And one of his fun episodes on Intellectual Objectivity here: https://keenon.substack.com/p/in-defense-of-geeky-intellectuals   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Whether it is solar panels or steel, clothes or tech, many of the world's manufactures are made in China. But did you know that the Chinese manufacturing sector is not really supply and demand driven and tends to produce far more than the rest of the world demands? Now… with a faltering post-COVID recovery, a housing market collapse, and worsening relationship with the West, is China's economy in a genuine state of crisis? And could a troubled Chinese economy, unable to be buoyed by the recently announced stimulus, spread more Disorder globally? And what should the US and UK do to contain China's disordering potential? And how are different approaches to the Chinese economy a key electoral issue in the upcoming US Presidential election?    Jason Pack is joined by Zongyuan ‘Zoe' Liu, the Maurice R. Greenberg Fellow for China Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, and author of Sovereign Funds: How the Communist Party of China Finances Its Global Ambitions. Jason and Zoe discuss how China's economic policies – characterized by a motley mix of market-driven and state-controlled elements – have led to both tremendous Chinese excellence in manufacturing and also oversupply. The duo also discuss: the changing US-China relationship, the implications of Chinese overproduction on the global economy, and the role of massive Chinese provincial government debt.    As they Order the Disorder, they suggest how existing institutions like the World Trade Organization could work better, and how to patch up the failing marriage between China and the West.    Producer: George McDonagh  Exec Producer: Neil Fearn    Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/      Show Notes Links  Read Zoe's article ‘China's Real Economic Crisis: Why Beijing Won't Give Up on a Failing Model' https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/chinas-real-economic-crisis-zongyuan-liu  Read more on why ‘China's economic ills are serious but not incurable'https://www.ft.com/content/553b106c-2bba-4f90-86d6-8496fc9cf902  On the Chinese hacking of Trump and Vance's phone's: https://edition.cnn.com/2024/10/25/politics/chinese-hackers-targeted-trump-and-vances-phone-data/index.html   For more on China's government is about to spend big on stimulus – can it turn around the country's sluggish economy? https://theconversation.com/chinas-government-is-about-to-spend-big-on-stimulus-can-it-turn-around-the-countrys-sluggish-economy-241260  To get more on Zongyuan Zoe Liu https://www.cfr.org/expert/zongyuan-zoe-liu  Watch US Ambassador to China Nicholas Burns explain The China Challenge https://foreignpolicy.com/live/burns-china-us-competition-diplomacy/  Read George Manus' piece ‘China's plan to boost flagging growth is the very definition of economic insanity‘ https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/oct/13/chinas-plan-to-boost-flagging-growth-is-the-very-definition-of-economic-insanity  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

From immigrants eating pets, to Jewish space lasers starting wildfires, to 9/11 ‘trutherism', our disordered world – and particularly the rhetoric surrounding the 2024 US Election – is awash with conspiracy theories. Are these theories: ways of venting anti-establishment anger, merely entertaining distractions, dangerous socially acceptable ways of conveying hate for minorities, or do they actually convey meaningful calls to revolutionary political action? What is the hidden meaning encoded in the plot lines and specific tropes of particular popular conspiracy theories? And why do neo-populist leaders push – and anti-establishment voters believe in them? Are conspiracy theories inherently ‘disordering' and do they make it more difficult for today's politicians to solve pressing challenges?    To explore this complex world, Jason Pack is joined by Joseph Uscinski. He is an Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Miami, author of ‘Conspiracy Theories: A Primer', and editor of Conspiracy ‘Theories and the People Who Believe Them'.    Throughout the episode, Jason engages in a conspiracy to come up with a unified field theory of how to unlock the meaning of conspiracy theories. Joe rains on his parade, rejecting most of Jason's pet theories, while unsurprisingly approving of his own pet theory: ‘Conspiracy Theories are for Losers and express a coherent world view that suits those without economic or political power'.    Jason and Joe discuss how conspiracy theories have become intertwined with certain types of modern political movements (especially disordering neo-populist ones), the psychological and social factors that motivate belief in conspiracy theories, the role of antisemitism throughout much conspiratorial thinking, and how these theories often target marginalised groups. The show closes with various sharp debates like over whether entertainment value or calls to political action have key roles to play in the spread of conspiracy theories. Lastly, when they Order the Disorder, Jason and Joe disagree vehemently over the role of global institutions should play in curtailing the spread of conspiracy theories.    Producer: George McDonagh  Exec Producer: Neil Fearn    Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ to get the special substack-only second episode on Backgammon and Politics with former World Champion of Backgammon Sander Lylloff which drops tomorrow October 23rd      Show Notes Links    For various experts who think Conspiracy Theories entail and motivate actions: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/marianna-in-conspiracyland/id1690561703?i=1000616687886     Get Joseph's book, Conspiracy Theories: A Primer: https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/conspiracy-theories-joseph-e-uscinski/1133459048     Listen to Joseph explain conspiracy theories and the people who believe them: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/dr-joseph-uscinski-conspiracy-theories-and-the-people/id1599806986?i=1000549404259     Listen to Joseph on confronting conspiracy theories:  https://www.podcastone.com/episode/Episode-8---Confronting-Conspiracy-Theories-with-Joseph-Uscinski     Read how conspiracy theories have taken hold in far right communities: https://www.thejc.com/lets-talk/i-went-undercover-among-the-fascists-and-this-is-what-i-found-rd5o5whq     Read the definition Jason uses for popular conspiracy theories: https://allthatsinteresting.com/popular-conspiracy-theories     Read definition of the 6 types of conspiracy theories: https://www.forbes.com/sites/traversmark/2024/02/25/a-psychologist-explains-6-types-of-conspiracy-theories/   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the West initiated the most comprehensive economic war in human history. The US, EU, and UK announced a range of well-coordinated sanctions against Russia which included export restrictions, freezing assets, excluding the Russian Central Bank from SWIFT, and banning flights. It was an example of transcending the Enduring Disorder with the main Western powers working together seamlessly.    But seen in hindsight were these effective? Did they degrade Russia's fighting capacity? Does kicking a state out of the globalized economy actually hit Disordering states, like Putin's Russia or Iran, where it hurts? Do they help avoid future aggression? Or do they facilitate the rise of a ‘Disorderer's Club' where sanctioned autocracies merely trade with each other and form common cause against the West?    In this' investigative' episode of Disorder, Jason Pack is joined by Bloomberg journalist, Stephanie Baker, author of ‘Punishing Putin: Inside the Global Economic War to Bring Down Russia.' The pair explore different theories of whether economic integration prevents wars, the effectiveness of sanctions, the fear of blowback, the role of oligarchs in Putin's regime, and the impact of the novel $60 a barrel ‘oil price cap' on Russia's economy. Plus: as they Order the Disorder, they look at whether methods like the oil price cap could be used to deter Iran, the need for a coordinated international response (which includes players like the UAE), and how targeting Putin's access to high-end semi-conductors could help undermine his authoritarian power.    Producer: George McDonagh  Exec Producer: Neil Fearn    Show Notes Links  Listen to our episode with Marcel Dirsus Ep67. ‘Dictators' Disordering Quest for Internal Security': https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/bcd89a117331e217c82af1d018e28d9e     Listen to our episode with Tom Burgis which sheds light on why authoritarian states outsource their economic functions and corruption: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/e003625c25e8ce63dda398369bfea54b     For more on Stephanie visit: https://stephaniebakerwriter.com/     Get Stephanie's book, Punishing Putin: Inside the Global Economic War to Bring Down Russia: https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/Punishing-Putin/Stephanie-Baker/9781668050583     Readna review of Punishing Putin: https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/09/13/punishing-putin-review-us-economic-sanctions-russia-war-ukraine/     Read more from Stephanie on how Seizing a Russian Superyacht is much more complicated than you think: https://stephaniebakerwriter.com/stories-archive/russian-oligarch-s-seized-yachts-are-costing-tax-payers-millions     And for some amusement amidst all the seriousness, Read ‘Giuliani Has Curious Links to a Jewish Village in Ukraine' by Stephanie https://stephaniebakerwriter.com/stories-archive/guiliani-link-to-jewish-village-ukraine   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

What can games of skill and chance, of risk and reward – like Poker and Backgammon– teach diplomats, policymakers, and interested participants about how to Order the Disorder?    In this episode, Jason Pack is joined by the former #1 Giant of Backgammon, Wilcox Snellings. In the 1990s, he was considered by his peers to be the best player in the world. The duo discuss: Wilcox's upbringing, New York's gambling culture, the milieu of high stakes gambling and its myriad lessons for confronting disorder with probabilistic calculations.    The duo explore how concepts of expected value and game theory, which underpin modern economics, derive from gambling. They also explore the concepts popularized by Nate Silver in his new book 'On the Edge', which focuses on the dichotomy between ‘the River' (i.e. the community of risk takers) and ‘the village' (i.e. the community of PC, play-it-safe, left-leaning establishment elites). Wilcox and Jason explore how today's crop of political leaders often fail to utilize the principles of risk vs reward calculations and fail to grasp inherent causal connections when making decisions. In the Ordering the Disorder section, Wilcox and Jason link the failure of left and centrist politicians in tackling the challenges of campaign finance, taxation equity, and income inequality to their risk averseness.     If you enjoyed this episode and want to hear its partner episode with Sander Lylloff the 2022 World Champion of Backgammon Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/     Next week that special bonus episode will drop only on the Substack.    Producer: George McDonagh  Exec Producer: Neil Fearn    Show Notes Links    Listen to the World's current number 1 Giant of Backgammon Mochy talking to Jason's friend Etan Ilfeld: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-etan-ilfeld-podcast/id1500914118?i=1000671570803     Venture into online backgammon and amongst the stars on Backgammon Galaxy: https://www.backgammongalaxy.com/     For another more personal interview about Wilcox's life: https://www.bing.com/videos/riverview/relatedvideo?q=Wilcox+Snellings&mid=801C99A1E7F69963E00A801C99A1E7F69963E00A&FORM=VIRE       Read more about Nate Silver's book https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2024/09/09/on-the-edge-the-art-of-risking-everything-nate-silver-book-review    And a fairly cogent critique of Silver's book:   https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/09/20/on-the-edge-book-review-nate-silver-risk/     Read Jason's article written in Dubai three years ago about Backgammon, peace making, and the Abraham Accords: https://www.mei.edu/publications/personal-vantage-point-gamble-abraham-accords-dubais-first-international-backgammon     Watch Jason Play a commentated tournament backgammon live from Dubai starting at 3:51:00 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LzDxx1yG78o     Listen to current world number 1, Mochy on Backgammon and Life on the Etan Ilfeld Podcast https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-etan-ilfeld-podcast/id1500914118?i=1000671570803   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

(This episode flows from Ep 73 Part I: Commemorating the October 7 Massacre – please listen to it first if you have not.) In this second part of our series recapping a year of the Israel-Hamas War, Jason and Sir Vincent Fean (former British Consul General in Jerusalem and former Chairman of the Balfour Project) pivot their discussion to the current state of Palestinian political institutions, the Palestinian question on the international diplomatic stage; international legal rulings against Israel's occupation; Britain's historic role in the Palestine question and its ensuing responsibilities to the Palestinians; the actions of Sir Keir's government to bring about Palestinian statehood; and the longer term implications of the current conflict for the future of the Middle East and the world.     Both Jason and Sir Vincent argue that it is impossible to Order the Disorder globally on issues like climate change without tackling the Middle East head on. This episode is both a heartbreaker and a must-listen.      For more on Israel-Gaza-Lebanon-Iran and the state of our Disordered world, subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/     Producer: George McDonagh  Exec Producer: Neil Fearn    Show Notes Links    On the impact of recognising a Palestinian state: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn44j1njggjo     For more on the Balfour Project: https://balfourproject.org/#:~:text=-%20Balfour%20Project.%20Peace%20with%20justice,%20security%20and     On Bibi, Hizbollah, Yahya Sinwar and Hamas' attempts to truly destroy Israel: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/israel-vs-hamas-hezbollah-iran-and-itself/id1548604447?i=1000670150284     On the economic impacts of one year of war on the region and the globe: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/a-year-to-the-war-in-gaza/id1584397047?i=1000671757710  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

A year ago today, the Middle East and the world changed forever. Hamas terrorists and Gazan civilians broke through the Gaza border fence into Israel and began massacring over a thousand Israelis and taking hundreds of hostages. A few weeks later, Israel began an aerial bombardment campaign and ground occupation of Gaza that has caused tens of thousands of casualties, leveled most of Gaza's buildings, and seems to have no end in sight. To support Hamas, Hizbollah began firing missiles into Northern Israel from southern Lebanon, even before the Israeli incursion in Gaza began. This has recently led to Israeli decapitation strikes against Hizbollah's leadership and an Israeli invasion of southern Lebanon.    To mark the sober anniversary of October 7, Jason Pack is joined by Sir Vincent Fean. Over the course of a long and distinguished diplomatic career, Sir Vincent was British Consul General in Jerusalem – which is essentially Britain's Ambassador to the Palestinians. Currently, Sir Vincent urges the British government to recognise a Palestinian state via his role as trustee and former Chairman of The Balfour Project, an NGO.    In this first part of a two-part episode, Jason and Sir Vincent seek to shine light on a few interrelated topics: firstly to provide an overview of the last year of tragedy, violence, and death in the Middle East; to unpick Israeli military strategy or lack thereof, to contextualize the vast humanitarian suffering of Gazan and West Bank Palestinians; to situate the Oct 7 attacks in the long continuum of Jewish persecution; and examine the re-emergence of previously dormant forms of conspiratorial antisemitism around the world. Please join us tomorrow for Part II of the discussion btw Jason and Sir Vincent.    For more on Israel-Gaza-Lebanon-Iran and the state of our Disordered world, subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/     Producer: George McDonagh  Exec Producer: Neil Fearn    Show Notes Links    A quick factual overview from Deutsche Welle on the October 7th attacks and the ensuing year of violence: https://www.dw.com/en/october-7-hamas-attacks-on-israel-a-year-later/a-70399696#:~:text=On%20October%207,%202023,%20Hamas,%20the%20Palestinian%20militant     A more detailed strategic look at what happened on October 7th: https://www.csis.org/analysis/hamas-october-7-attack-tactics-targets-and-strategy-terrorists#:~:text=Hamas%20fighters%20killed%20an%20estimated%201,400%20Israelis,%20largely     On the Nova Massacre and Oct 7th videos: https://time.com/6565186/october-7-hamas-attack-footage-film/     Listen back to ep on ICC Verdict: Ep24. What does South Africa stand to gain from accusing Israel of Genocide in Gaza? https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/7a0930e7d9052f19cd7072d72214edfb      UNRWA Imperiled by Terrorism Charges: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/29/world/middleeast/unrwa-israel-gaza-terrorism.html    On Bibi, Hizbollah, Yahya Sinwar and Hamas' attempts to truly destroy Israel: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/israel-vs-hamas-hezbollah-iran-and-itself/id1548604447?i=1000670150284   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Tuesday night's vice-presidential debate between Republican JD Vance and Democrat Tim Walz was a breath of fresh air in some ways. The discussion was civil, with Vance in particular attempting to present himself as reasonable. But hiding underneath the crisp suit, eloquent banter, and agreeable disagreements, is a Disorderer, who could become President in 2028, if not sooner.    In this special episode focusing on the VP debate, and the threat Vance presents to democracy, Alex Hall Hall is joined by Greg Olear, host of the Prevail podcast and author of ‘Rough Beast: Who Donald Trump Really Is, What He'll Do if Re-Elected, and Why Democracy Must Prevail.'    The pair analyze the implications of the debate for the upcoming election, the role of media in shaping public perception, and the potential threats posed by Vance's political agenda. Plus to Order the Disorder, Alex and Greg delve into the need for the Democrats to communicate effectively.    For more on the ongoing US Presidential race, subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/     Producer: George McDonagh  Exec Producer: Neil Fearn    Show Notes Links    Vance and Walz stick to policy in polite VP debate - but who won? https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5y0863ry88o     CBS cut mics and fact-checked JD Vance in a more civil VP debate, drawing the ire of Trump and his allies: https://edition.cnn.com/2024/10/02/media/vance-walz-debate-cbs-moderators-fact-check/index.html     Listen to Greg's podcast Prevail at https://pod.link/1553506699     Read his Substack Prevail at https://gregolear.substack.com/     Get his book Rough Beast: Who Donald Trump Really Is, What He'll Do if Re-Elected, and Why Democracy Must Prevail https://www.amazon.com/Rough-Beast-Re-Elected-Democracy-Prevail-ebook/dp/B0D4MS1D25   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Over the weekend, Israel confirmed that they had killed Hezbollah's charismatic leader – and terrorist master mind --  Hassan Nasrallah. He was frequently described as the leader of the globe's most powerful non-state armed group.  So, what does Nasrallah's exit from the stage and the ongoing Israeli bombardment of Lebanon, mean for the region? Amidst the humanitarian crisis and vast escalatory pressures, how can we Order the Disorder?     To find out, Arthur Snell and Jane Kinninmont recorded a special bonus episode of the podcast. The duo discuss: the escalating conflict between Israel and Hezbollah/Iran – examining the motivations of both parties. They analyse Netanyahu's political manoeuvring, the complexities of Lebanon's political/sectarian landscape, and the potential for diplomatic solutions amidst the chaos. Plus, they dissect the challenges faced by the international community in addressing the crisis and the implications for US influence in the region, as they try and Order the Disorder.    For more on the fast moving situation across Lebanon and the wider region, subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/     Producer: George McDonagh  Exec Producer: Neil Fearn    Show Notes Links    Listen to Arthur Snell's podcast Behind The Lines: https://shows.acast.com/65196b0b1488340011cf14a1     Read Tom Fletcher's (a former guest from Episode Ep10. How international actors can stabilize the ongoing Israel-Hamas War and prevent a regional escalation - https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/cd7401e8093b8bb8f10c639a30db226c) piece on what's next for the region: https://www.ft.com/content/f78a4277-8f94-40c4-a4d4-6c0bde361ecb     Read Michael Young's Twitter Thread on the latest: https://x.com/beirutcalling/status/1840008152336527715?s=46     More on the moving situation in Reuters https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/apartment-building-beirut-hit-israel-widens-air-campaign-2024-09-29/     Read this really insightful bio of Hassan Nasrallah by Hassan Hassan (from Syria) and Karim Shaheen in New Lines magazine - https://newlinesmag.com/argument/end-of-an-era-what-hassan-nasrallahs-assassination-spells-for-the-middle-east/     Read this article by Michael Young (@beirutcalling) which covers both the regional risks and the domestic political implications - https://carnegieendowment.org/middle-east/diwan/2024/09/israel-has-assassinated-the-secretary-general-of-hezbollah-hassan-nasrallah?lang=en¢er=middle-east   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

‘Peak Disorder' is Jason's coinage for: the democratic world's inability to exert ordering capacity to respond to new challenges except if they are existentially pressing because we are simply too divided, distracted, and overtaxed by existing crises. This phenomenon of ‘peak disorder' is epitomized over the last two months by events in Bangladesh.     Bangladesh's embattled prime minister, Sheikh Hasina, fled the country on Aug 5, 2024, after a brutal government crackdown against protests had resulted in hundreds of deaths. The country's president, the armed forces, and political parties selected a temporary “caretaker” government led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus. The key opposition party the BNP has accepted the transition. However, some factions in the country are upset with the nature of the caretaker government's reforms and the slow progress towards elections.   Bangladesh is a country with strong economic potential and many opportunities for progress, but its transition from corrupt populism/creeping authoritarianism back to democracy needs to be aided by outside economic help and by being insulated from disordering geopolitical rivalries. Bangladesh's transition is unfolding amidst Peak Disorder. This makes it very fraught. To delve deeper into events in Bangladesh and what they say about ‘Peak Disorder', Jason is joined by Michael Kugelman the Director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Centre.    To get more background information and perspective about this very complex topic pleasure join our substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/      Producer: George McDonagh  Exec Producer: Neil Fearn    Show Notes Links:  Michael's sterling interview with The Daily Star that gets into the geopolitics of the situation:  https://www.thedailystar.net/opinion/geopolitical-insights/news/the-geopolitics-sheikh-hasinas-fall-explained-3676511  Michael's bio: https://www.wilsoncenter.org/person/michael-kugelman   For a real concise takes on the facts of what has happened in Bangladesh:  https://theconversation.com/bangladeshs-protests-explained-what-led-to-pms-ouster-and-the-challenges-that-lie-ahead-236190  A good overview podcast by ABC (Australia) about how we got to where we are now which also interviews Michael Kugelman:  https://www.abc.net.au/listen/programs/rearvision/bangladesh-politics-and-the-business-of-remembering/104180756  And for an update on the current state of play in Bangladesh and what might lie ahead:  https://apnews.com/article/bangladesh-yunus-hasina-khaleda-zia-election-3525d4c39c748a974f67b62efadb23b9  And for the conceptual take on how Tyrants rise and fall revisit Ep 67 with Marcel Dirsus: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/bcd89a117331e217c82af1d018e28d9e  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

What does getting kidnapped in Mexico City have in common with taking Western backpackers on tours of North Korean? Each provides key insights into the disordering essence of how autocracies function and why symbolism is important to dictatorial securocrats. This rather chatty episode builds off of our more academic and systematic look at similar themes in “Dictators' Disordering Quest for Internal Security” with Marcel Dirsus last Tuesday in episode 67.    In this episode, Jason is joined by the host of The Jordan Harbinger Show. The pair discuss: how Jordan got kidnapped (and Jason shares his own tale of being kidnapped in Syria and Lebanon); what life is really like in North Korea; why symbols matter so much in dictatorships; the psychology of Xi Jinping; how to deter China from invading Taiwan; why dictators are so fragile and touchy about being made to look bad; and how campaign finance reform could help us order the disorder.    Twitter: @DisorderShow    Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/     Producer: George McDonagh  Exec Producer: Neil Fearn    Show Notes Links  To listen to Jordan's show visit https://www.jordanharbinger.com/  Check out his episode ‘A Divorce Lawyer's Guide to Lasting Love Part One' here: https://www.jordanharbinger.com/james-sexton-a-divorce-lawyers-guide-to-lasting-love-part-one/   And our previous episode with Marcel Dirsus on the innerworkings of Tyrannies here: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/bcd89a117331e217c82af1d018e28d9e   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

To celebrate Disorder's One Year Anniversary, Alex and Jason recap the shows Greatest Hits, share their thoughts on their favourite guests; explain how their views of the world have changed over the last year; speculate on how today's disorder is different from what came before; and disagree slightly agreeably about how the moral failings of the Anglo-American colonial empire of bygone days is or is not different from the Chinese and Russian empires of today. After proceeding through these reminiscences, we take listeners questions about Putin, AI, China, imperialism, how recording the podcast has changes how Jason and Alex see the world, and if there are any new orderers on the world stage.        Twitter: @DisorderShow    Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/     Producer: George McDonagh  Exec Producer: Neil Fearn    Show Notes Links:    Listen to our first episode here: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/63ff389b562a075c49a81c86e239b85c     And listen to some of the other favourite episodes that this episode references,  With Bill Browder (on Navalny's death): https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/a36160dede2b990a59c34c3c4e8eeece   With Evegenia Kara Murza (whose husband has just been released in the prisoner swap): https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/8eff8cc4caece2708249ee7bec567ad8   With Miles Taylor (author of the famous Anonymous article in the NYT): https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/42c97d2971c72d251b59b92d47d6c0ed   With Armen Sarkissian (the former President of Armenian - Part 1): https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/380a900513c99b34f849e4d74119f46a   And the one containing arguably our greatest moment with Kurt Volker: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/f20a464df3a71e64f887891339b720dc  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

From Putin to Qadhafi, from Mohammed bin Salman to Trump… our current era of Enduring Disorder is filled with many Tyrants and Tyrant-wannabes. But why do Tyrants tend to seek Disorder rather than Order? The answer appears to lie in Tyrants' Endless Quest for Regime Security. Dictators have a marked predilection to put their own desire to cling to power in the short-and medium-term above all other considerations – even if that means deliberately making their countries' economies and militaries inefficient or willfully spreading Disorder around the globe.     To discuss the deep connections between Tyranny and Disorder, we are joined by Marcel Dirsus, Jason's old Oxford chum, former Libya-Analysis LLC contractor, and author of ‘How Tyrants Fall: And How Nations Survive'. Marcel is a Non-Resident Fellow at the Institute for Security Policy at Kiel University and a member of the Standing Expert Committee on Terrorism and Interior Security at the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung.    Jason and Marcel dig into the psychology of tyrannical leaders and the structural factors that push tyrants to behave as they do. They explore the concept of the ‘selectorate' — i.e. who really matters in a given society to keep the ruler in power.  They explain how tyrannies have a much smaller and more elite ‘selectorate' than democracies… this explains why pleasing these very few elites in the immediate term is the key variable required to keep dictators in power… and since those few pillars of regime support might flip at any moment, tyranny is actually an incredibly brittle form of government… and can actually collapse at any moment if its support pillars are removed    In the Ordering the Disorder section, Marcel and Jason urge democratic nations to realize the true extent of weakness prevalent in most dictatorships and target tyrants' henchmen to help create a more Ordered globe.    Twitter: @DisorderShow    Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/     Producer: George McDonagh  Exec Producer: Neil Fearn    Show Notes Links  What is the Selectorate and what are the implications of ‘Selectorate Theory' on how we understand international politics?  oxfordre.com/politics/display/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228637.001.0001/acrefore-9780190228637-e-293  Get Marcel's book at https://www.hachette.co.uk/titles/marcel-dirsus/how-tyrants-fall/9781399809481/     But if you want to actually learn about Libya rather than simply reading some kooky stories that Marcel includes about Qadhafi, get Jason's book: https://globalenduringdisorder.com/     Read more about Marcel at https://www.economist.com/culture/2024/07/17/taking-on-the-global-brotherhood-of-despots   Visit his website https://www.marceldirsus.com/   Visit his substack https://thehundred.substack.com/   And for the reference to Nadav Safran's ‘Saudi Arabia: The Ceaseless Quest for Security': https://www.amazon.com/Saudi-Arabia-Ceaseless-Quest-Security/dp/0674789857   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Jason and Alex explain the implications for global order of the first, and possibly onl,y 2024 Presidential Candidates Debate btw Harris and Trump. It was like a legendary heavyweight boxing match between a woman auditioning to be the mega-orderer-in-chief and the most well established disorderer the world has ever scene. And it ended in a more dramatic fashion than even an epic Howard Cosell play-by-play: Down goes Frazier, Down goes Frazier.     Trump acknowledged that he cannot go against Putin's wishes, that he does not want the Ukrainians to win the war; and then when taunted by Kamala about the small ‘crowd-size' at his rallies, Trump simply imploded: spewing grievance-filled conspiratorial lies about Haitian Migrants eating dogs in Springfield, Ohio, that Democrats order doctors to kill babies after birth, and that the Biden-Harris administration gives transgender transition surgeries to illegal aliens.    We at the Disorder Pod don't want to count chickens before they are hatched, but were both favourably surprised by Kamala's performance. As we pointed out in Ep 65, she does portray herself in a rigid, prosecutorial vibe and has been weak at explaining the specifics of her programmes. She might play identity cards a bit much for some middle-aged white males. And yet!, Sept 10, 2024 may go down in history as the first time that an opposing politician beat Donald J. Trump at the game of television. Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, and Jeb Bush failed at it in the 2016 Republican Primary. Hillary and Biden may have won debates against him but they never beat him at the game of television. Whereas, Harris made Trump look like a buffoon and she successfully baited and taunted him on live TV before tens of millions. She made the contrast extremely clear: that she wishes to Order the American economy and the world, while Trump wishes to Disorder it.    Show Notes Links:    Read Alex's Byline Times Article, ‘A Stumbling Trump Receives a Well-Deserved Shellacking at the First Presidential Debate': https://bylinetimes.com/2024/09/11/donald-trump-kamala-harris-debate-president-receives-shellacking-at-the-first-presidential-showdown/    Listen to Mehdi Hassan on the Guardian pod explain Gish-Galloping and how Donald Trump's debate strategy usually works and how it can be (and was defeated): https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/today-in-focus/id1440133626?i=1000668961270                 Listen to the 538 on the history Presidential Debates and how much they have swung the polls in the past: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/fivethirtyeight-politics/id1077418457?i=1000668933282    Listen to our take on Harris's weaknesses with white men from yesterday here: https://open.spotify.com/episode/3MtV4SS0QjAQGN5p9distS?go=1&sp_cid=40c19a23f8ed49573a18b2bb3c9b9b95&utm_source=embed_player_p&utm_medium=desktop&nd=1&dlsi=c462b99a0ae7432c   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

This week, Jason and Alex catchup after an eventful summer. Alex discusses her main takeaways from her trip to Tbilisi for the McCain forum, while Jason talks about his conversations back in New Jersey with real American voters. These conversations are giving him a pit in his stomach. His mounting concern is that Harris may fall into the Clinton trap – turning off traditionally Democratic voting white middle-aged men who are not from the coastal elite. Jason has been speaking to some ‘real Americans' and hearing that they find Harris an uppity female lawyer, who doesn't stand for anything, and who is too inauthentic to win the 2024 US Presidential election.     Pivoting away from this doom and gloom, the duo take listener questions. They look at how host countries could better assimilate migrants; whether Starmer should take a braver approach to push the UK back into the single market; how to stave off the rise in populist parties like AfD; how to push back against anti-Ukrainian conspiracy theories from one's colleagues; and if a nationalised health system like the NHS can deliver ‘Ordering Solutions' for its population or if the failure of the NHS at present showcases that state-led mega ordering is simply not possible in today's world.    Twitter: @DisorderShow    Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/       Producer: George McDonagh  Exec Producer: Neil Fearn    Show Notes Links  Listen to our million downloads episode which was referenced numerous times, especially about Sweden, Privatization, health care, and assimilation/migration, https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/0c8bf88a4b5b3bfc2ba60f36c12bc4de     And for more on Harris and her problems being bold and landing with White men: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/cnn-political-director-warns-of-trouble-sign-for-harris-as-she-lags-with-white-male-voters-in-key-states/ar-AA1q3lkL     And her problems also surface with Hispanic voters, especially men: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/skeptical-voters-wrestle-know-kamala-harris-seen-donald-trump-rcna168784   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices