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Keith reviews the state of the real estate market, noting that existing home sales are down about 33% from their 2021 peak, while prices remain firm due to low supply and high demand.  Affordability challenges are driven by stagnant wages, inflation, and higher mortgage rates, with 70% of mortgage holders still locked in at rates below 5%.  He observes that in certain markets, new construction may now offer better investor terms than comparable existing properties, especially where builders buy down rates.  The episode highlights a comparison of nearly a century of asset class returns, reporting real estate's long-term annual appreciation at approximately 4.7%. Episode Page: GetRichEducation.com/583 For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com GRE Free Investment Coaching: GREinvestmentcoach.com Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments.  For predictable 10-12% quarterly returns, visit FreedomFamilyInvestments.com/GRE or text  1-937-795-8989 to speak with a freedom coach Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search "how to leave an Apple Podcasts review"  For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— GREletter.com or text 'GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation   Complete episode transcript: Keith Weinhold  0:01   welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, how do other audiences feel about the GRE mantras that we've come to love here, like financially free beats debt free and don't get your money to work for you? Then sometimes it's not what you're attracted to in life, but what you're running away from finally comparing the returns from six major asset classes over the past century all today on get rich education    Keith Weinhold  0:29   since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors, and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show guests include top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki, get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast or visit get rich education.com   Corey Coates  1:18   You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.   Keith Weinhold  1:34   Welcome to GRE from Kennebunkport, Maine to Bridgeport, Connecticut and across 188 nations worldwide. It is the voice of real estate investing since 2014 I'm Keith Weinhold, and I'm grateful to have you here with me, and we're doing something a little different today, as you'll soon listen in to me as I was on the hot seat being interviewed on another prominent real estate show. But first, when you pull back and ask yourself, why you're really an investor in the first place? There are so many reasons. Maybe you just want a few properties in order to supplement your day job income. Maybe you want to have more than a few so that you can completely replace that active income, or perhaps rather than going the route of building up your cash flow, which is valid, but some think that it's the only way to real estate financial freedom. Instead, you could own, say, nine doors or 22 doors, and even if they all had zero cash flow, you can just keep borrowing against that leverage and equity tax free and live off of that whatever you do when it comes to your day job, income, your degree of disdain for your nine to five job that is going to be greater or less than it is for some others. So your motivation for self improvement, it isn't always about what you're running to in life, which could be real estate investing, but it's also what you're running away from, especially if you don't get a deeply rooted sense of meaning from your job. So you could have both a push factor and a pull factor in what motivates you. There's a scene from the 1999 movie Office Space that just does this incredibly unvarnished job of saying out loud how so many of us feel today. What I'm going to share with you, I mean, you know that you have felt this at least once in your life. Office space wasn't supposed to be a mega hit movie, but it kind of was, because it's so relatable. Let's listen in to part of this clip. This is Ron Livingston playing a disgruntled male employee talking to Jennifer Aniston at a restaurant about his job in the movie Office Space.   Speaker 1  4:09   I don't like my job, and I don't think I'm gonna go anymore. You're just not gonna go. Yeah, won't you get fired? I don't know, but I really don't like it, and I'm not gonna go.   Keith Weinhold  4:24   Then it continues when she asks. So you're just gonna quit? No, not really. I'm just gonna stop going. When did you decide all of that? About an hour ago? Really? Yeah, aren't you going to get another job? I don't think I'd like another job. What are you going to do about money in bills and all that? I've never really liked paying bills. I don't think I'm going to do that either.   Keith Weinhold  4:53   That's it. That is the end of that classic dialog from office space that we can. All relate to you did not wake up to be mediocre, but a lot of people's jobs pummel them into a rather prosaic state. You were born rich because you were born with this abundance of choices, this huge palette in menu, but society often stifles that and makes you forget it, and it gets really easy to just fall into your groove and stay there. The main reason we aren't living our dreams is really because we're living our fears. Failure doesn't actually destroy as many dreams as people think fear and doubt. Does fear and doubt destroy more dreams than failure ever does financial runway? That is a phrase for the amount of time that you can maintain your lifestyle without the need for a paycheck. And it's critical for you to lengthen this runway if you hope to retire early, and it will dramatically reduce your stress level. An example is say that you currently earn 150k per year after taxes, and you spend 126k of that, all right. Well, that means you've got a surplus of 24k a year. Well, it's going to take you a little over five years to accumulate that 126k that you need to annually support your lifestyle. That's what happens if you don't invest. And see investing helps you lengthen your financial runway, that amount of time you can maintain your lifestyle without the need for a paycheck. That's what we're talking about here. Last week I brought you the show from Caesar's Palace in the center of the Las Vegas Strip. So therefore, what I've done is I have gone from the ostentatious and flamboyant over here to the familial and simple as this week I'm in Buffalo New York, broadcasting from a somewhat makeshift GRE studio here, the Buffalo Bills had a home game yesterday, so the city and hotels are busier than usual. Next week, I will bring you the show from upstate Pennsylvania, as I'm traveling to see my family. Let's listen in to me on the hot seat. I was recently a guest on Kevin bups long running real estate investing show. You're going to get to see how I present information and GRE principles for the first time to a different audience. And as I do, you're going to hear me provide new material, but you'll also hear me say quite a few things that I have told you before, even then, the concepts might land differently when I'm explaining them to a new audience. The show is based in Florida, so We'll also touch on the real estate pain and opportunity there. After I'm interviewed, I'm going to come back and tell you about something fascinating. I'm going to compare the returns from six major asset classes over the past century, since 1930 anyway, and that's going to include the first time on the show where I'll tell you real estate's annual appreciation rate over the last entire century. Just about what do you think it is? 8% 5% 3% you're gonna have, perhaps the best answer you've ever had. Here we go.   Kevin Bupp  8:31   Now, guys, I want to welcome back a guest that we've had on. It's been a number of years now. Keith Weinhold, I went back to look at the last episode we had him on. I think it's been about four years. So, you know, four years ago, the world was in the very different state. It was a very different time. And so, you know, thankfully, we're out of the covid era and on to newer and greater things. So for those that don't know Keith, he's the founder of get rich education. He's the host of the popular get rich education podcast. He's a longtime thought leader in the real estate investing space, and like myself. Keith was also born and raised in Pennsylvania. For those that know don't know, I was born and raised in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, Keith, I believe, a couple hours away from where I was. But Keith has very much a unique perspective on wealth, building debt, and really the housing market as a whole. And today, you know, we'll be diving into everything you know, from why the property itself? This is something that Keith kind of coins, why the property itself is less important than you think, to how the housing crash has already happened in a way that most people don't even realize, to the role inflation and debt play in building long term wealth. And so again, it's been a number of years here, so I'm excited to welcome Keith back here. So my friend, Keith, welcome to the show. It's it's a pleasure to have you back here again, my friend.   Keith Weinhold  9:43   Oh, Kevin, it's good to be here and be in the auspices of another fellow native Pennsylvanian as well.   Kevin Bupp  9:49   That's right, that's right, yeah, no, Pa is rocking and rolling as I think I told you this little, this little tidbit last time everyone, every time I speak with someone from Pennsylvania, they never know this. But I'm going to share this fun fact. Are you already know, Keith. I'm gonna share it with the rest of the listeners here today, Pennsylvania, those that are born and raised there. It's the only state where, if you're from Pennsylvania, you refer to it by its initials, and you assume that everyone else, everywhere else across the country, they know what you're talking about when you say I'm from PA and that's the only state that does that. So I think it's pretty neat.   Keith Weinhold  10:19   That's right. No one else does that. No one else says, I'm from TN, if they're from Memphis, right?   Kevin Bupp  10:24   They don't, they don't. So with that, my friend. So, you know, it's, again, it's been a number of years since we, since we had you last on here, you know, let's start with just, let's back up a little bit. You know, what have you been up to? I mean, what, what have the last few years look like for you? Where have you been spending your time, energy and efforts? Obviously, it's, you know, we've gone through some quite a bit of turmoil over the last five years, and would love to just get an update as to what's going on your life.    Speaker 2  10:48   Well, one of the big words in real estate investing, we all know it, even the person that cuts your hair and cleans your teeth knows it, and that's affordability. You know, really, affordability has been under fire, under pressure. By a lot of measures, we have the worst affordability for home buying since the early 80s, when the Jeffersons was on television. So it's been helping a lot of people deal with that. It's really the effect of three things, general inflation, higher home prices and higher mortgage rates. Really, those three things the crux of the problem. It's not exactly inflation, really. It's the fact that over the long term, wages don't keep up with inflation. And really that's the crux of the affordability problem. So I've been helping people deal with that and put that in perspective, really, Kevin,   Kevin Bupp  11:42   what does that mean for, you know, investment, real estate? I mean, are you still still doing deals? Are you seeing deals still get done by your students? I mean, what? What's your world look like?   Keith Weinhold  11:52    Yeah. I mean, I think you're asking, you know, how many deals are taking place? One way to measure that on a national basis is existing home sales. You know, existing home sales have been down substantially. And when a lot of people hear that, they think, prices, oh no, we're not talking about prices. We're talking about existing home sales. That means sales volume. That means the amount of overall transactions. So to give an idea of a real estate market, a residential one that's become pretty lethargic and not very vibrant, is that sales volume. It had its recent peak of about 6 million home sales back in 2021 I mean, 2021 was crazy, kind of the crux of the pandemic, you know, Kevin, that's when for an open house. You saw cars wrapped around the block for just one open house. Okay, well, that year 2021 there were 6 million existing home sales. Today, we're on pace to do about 4 million, and we also did only about 4 million last year. So if you put that in perspective and think about what that means, prices have stayed stable, but that's a 33% reduction in transactions. So investors, you know, people like you and I, Kevin, we're not as affected by this as some other industries. But think about the mortgage loan industry. If you're doing 33% fewer transactions, think about the hard decisions companies have to make and lay people off. 33% fewer transactions for title companies. It's probably close to 33% fewer transactions for furniture companies as well. So really it's both affordability that's been a problem, and that's led to this relative lethargy, kind of a slow, not very interesting residential real estate market, at least from the transaction perspective, really, really slow.   Kevin Bupp  13:58   But Could, could one not argue, I don't know the data points. Keith, I guess, what did it look like? 2021? Was kind of the peak. I think you'd reference 6 million units a year. Transactionally, what did it look like prior? What, what was, what was a more normal year like? And maybe 2020, wasn't a normal year either, right? Because a lot of folks thought the role was ending for a period of time. You know, 2019 maybe just again, trying to, trying to find maybe a better baseline to use. And then, you know, does, I guess, in my mind, and I don't follow these data points as much as you do, is that maybe 2021, was, you know, somewhat artificial inflation, right? Lots of lots of money pumping into the marketplace. And ultimately, we had to get back to a sense of normalcy at some point in time. And so are we at a at a place of normalcy? Are we still behind the eight ball a little bit?   Keith Weinhold  14:44   We're still behind the eight ball a little bit. 5 million is more of a normal long term number. But yeah, I mean, if we've got 4 million now, that's, you know, 25% less still than 5 million, sort of this long term normalcy rate of existing. Home transactions. And if you're a careful listener, you notice I've been using the word existing that doesn't include new build. So you know, when you the listener out there reading headlines, always look at that closely. We talking about existing? Are we talking about new build? You can learn a lot from that when you introduce new build data that introduces an awful lot of noise. For example, even when we look at prices, sometimes we want to exclude new construction. So why is that? Why do we want to focus on existing a lot? Well, because new build can introduce a lot of aberrations to the market. For example, the size of new build properties has dropped substantially the past few years, again, coming back to the central theme of affordability to help make a home more affordable. So we're not looking at same same when the square footage of a property drops a lot. And also, another thing that's been happening as a response to the lack of affordability is you have more builders building further and further out from a central business district where there are lower land costs for that new build property as well to help meet affordability. So the takeaway is, yeah, we want to be careful when we look at numbers. Are we looking at existing? Are we looking at new? Are we looking at overall properties.   Kevin Bupp  16:22   If you believe that if rates come down, we really is that the is that the lever that has to be pulled in order for that transactional volume to kick back up and, you know, make homes more affordable for the average home buyer,   Keith Weinhold  16:34   yeah, it's certainly going to help. I mean, really lower rates is the most likely significant lever that can help with the affordability crisis. Prices are pretty firm. Home prices are up 2% year over year. It's difficult for home prices to fall. In fact, home prices have only fallen one time substantially since World War Two. A lot of people don't realize that. So home prices are firm. I expect them to stay firm. And then the other lever is if we get a huge surge in wage increases, which I really don't expect anytime soon, unless we have another really big bout of inflation. So to your point, yes, lower mortgage rates like, that's the biggest lever that can help affordability return. And to speak to mortgage rates, Kevin and help put all of this into perspective, including this affordability component, is the fact that today, mortgage rates are low, and that gives a lot of people pause. They're like, What are you talking about? Mortgage rates were 3% even as low as two point some percent, just as recently as 2021 and early 2022 What are you talking about? Like, mortgage rates are 2x to 3x that today we look at a long term perspective when we look at the arc of mortgage rates, instead of in setting up expectations where we think rates could go. And we need to look at a frame of reference. Mortgage rates peaked over 18% in 1981 that's if you had a good credit score and everything on a 30 year fixed rate mortgage. That's what we're talking about here. In fact, Freddie Mac, they're the ones that have the best, most reliable stat set for mortgage rates, and that goes back to 1971 the average mortgage rate since 1971 all the way up to today, through all these presidential administrations you know, Nixon and in the Reagan years, and Clinton and the bushes and Obama, everything You know up to today, from 1971 until today, the average 30 year fixed rate mortgage is 7.7% so that's why I talk about how mortgage rates are, you know, moderate to a little low today. That takes a lot of people back. I don't see any impetus. It's going to get us back to, say, 3% mortgage rates. So some real perspective here.   Kevin Bupp  19:06   Yeah, yeah, no. And, you know, the interesting thing again, you might have data points on this to see, is a lot of the lack, do you feel that a lot of the lack of transactional volume is also related to those folks that have locked in, you know, 3% you know, mortgages, right? Like they're they, why would they sell and ultimately trade into a, maybe a, you know, a, you know, upgrade of a home, but ultimately be paying significantly more than that of what they're paying at the present time, you know, double the cost of capital. Your rates today, 30 year, rates are where the six and a half, 7% range, I don't follow it, but yeah.   Keith Weinhold  19:42   I mean, as of today, 6.3% is is where they're at. But yeah, you have a lot of those homeowners locked in to low rates. I mean, first, if we just pull back and look at the overall homeowner landscape, four in 10 have a paid off property. So just to talk to those about the other. Or 60% that percentage that are mortgage borrowers, among borrowers, 70% still have a mortgage rate under 5% meaning it starts with a four or less. So yeah, you're bringing up astutely Kevin the lock. In effect, people are reluctant to sell and give up that rate to trade it for a higher rate. And here's what's interesting, a lot of people if they couldn't make the payments on their home and say they lost their home, something that actually happened a lot in 2008 when people were locked into in sustainable mortgages because they didn't have good credit and they didn't have good income, the borrower is in good shape today. But even if, for some reason, they couldn't make the payments on their home, and they lost their home and they had to rent. Rents are actually higher in many cases, than what that mortgage principal and interest payment is. Maybe even the mortgage principal interest, taxes and insurance that they pay today are lower than what comparable rent would be, and this helps stabilize the housing market, people are really motivated to make their payments, and they can easily do it when it is so low, speaking to that lock in effect, and we're bringing up another reason now why transaction volume is so low, that lock in effect. So homeowners are in good shape. Their payments are sustainable. They don't want to sell, and they're just staying put. They're staying in place   Kevin Bupp  19:42   tying that all back around. Keith, what does that mean for us real estate investors? I mean, is there still good value out in the marketplace? I mean, is the rent to value ratio still, you know, Is there good opportunity to be had, as far as ROI for an investor that wants to buy into a residential investment or a multifamily investment, or anything related to that of residential housing?   Keith Weinhold  19:42   Well, the deals in the one to four unit space, single family homes up the four Plex buildings, yeah, just are not as good as they used to be. The ratio of rent income to purchase price is lower than it was five years ago. And that's so simple, but that's just really the simplest formula for profitability for a real estate investor, you don't have to look at cap rate or or NOI in the one to four unit space. Let's just look at that ratio of rent income to purchase price. 20 years ago, it was easy to find a full 1% meaning, on a 200k property, you could get $2,000 worth of rent income. That's that 1% ratio. But now oftentimes you've got to find something that's more like seven tenths of 1% that would be a $1,400 rent on a 200k property. So that simple formula, and I love that, the rent income divided by the purchase price when I'm looking at properties, when I'm scrolling or scanning like that's a calculation you can do in your head. It's only if I would see a ratio that appears really good, oh, that I would like drill down and look at that property more closely. So of course, when you have something that is that simple, though, rent income divided by purchase price, there's a lot of things that doesn't tell you. You know, what kind of mortgage interest rate can you get? What kind of property tax Do you pay in that jurisdiction? But really, I love the simplicity. That's it, rent divided by price, but it has been under attack. Now today, I still don't know where you're going to get a better risk adjusted return than you do with a carefully bought income property with a loan. I've always liked fixed interest rate debt the best risk adjusted return anywhere. I really don't know of a better one than with buying real estate, because real estate investors have so many profit centers, five simultaneous profit centers, which few people understand. Yeah.   Kevin Bupp  19:42   So using that, I want to, I want to unpack the the 1% rule a little bit for those that aren't familiar with it. And again, there's a lot of variables there, as you had mentioned, you know, mortgage rate, taxes, insurance and that respective market that you that you're buying in, and so what? What are you really trying to back into when applying that rule? Is there? Is there? Is there a true cash on cash return that you're hoping to achieve, again, assuming all these other variables that we just don't know, what they are at this point, you know? Is there a target range of actual ROI that you're actually looking to achieve when applying that 1% rule?   Keith Weinhold  19:42   No, I'm just looking for any positive cash flow. You know, to your point, yeah, there's nothing like the cash on cash return needs to be at least three and a half percent or something like that. But, yeah, I still like buying a property that's that's greater than a break even. Inflation is probably going to increase your cash flow over time, even if you bought a property that that broke even or just had a trickle of cash flow or a $100 cash flow today, a lot of people don't understand that fact that right there you can't count on it, you shouldn't count on. Getting rent increases. But we all know it generally happens over time at a rate of about 3% a year, but it actually increases your cash flow. If you increase your rent 5% your cash flow can often increase something like 12% why is that? How could that happen? That's because, you know, it's key for the person that was listening closely, you get fixed interest rate debt, so your rent income goes up, your expenses increase, except for that mortgage principal and interest. Inflation can touch it. It's kind of like a mosquito buzzing against a window and always trying to get in. And inflation can't touch that in a way. It's sort of like debt that's an asset in some unusual way, or some play on words, getting that debt so So yes, you can't count on rent increases over time. We know what typically happens, and that's really part of the compelling value proposition of buying income property with a loan. You're sort of leveraging inflation. You're really on the right side of it.   Kevin Bupp  20:08   Are there any particular markets that you feel are ripe for opportunity today where you're spending your focus and energies in?   Keith Weinhold  20:08   Yeah, it's still in high cash flowing markets like Memphis, okay, little rock and a good part of the Midwest and the Midwest still has home prices appreciating faster than the national average as well. So those are some of the areas that I like. Those jurisdictions also tend to have laws, as your listeners might know this already, Kevin, they tend to have laws that benefit the landlord more so than the tenant, where you can get a prompt eviction, but those are still the areas where you do get that high ratio of rent income to purchase price on a single family rental home, you might still find eight tenths of 1% meaning $800 worth of rent for every 100k of property purchase in places exactly like that.   Kevin Bupp  20:08   I was hoping that you tell me 1% rule would is applicable.   Keith Weinhold  20:08   It's pretty rare. You know, if you do see, if you do see a property that has a full 1% rent to purchase price ratio, it could be in a sketchy area, you need to make sure that you can actually get the rent in like you would get a respectful rent paying tenant in there. That's something that we would have to look at more closely.   Kevin Bupp  20:08   Have you explored building new product? Is there an opportunity there getting at a lower basis by building ground up?   Keith Weinhold  19:42   You asked such a smart question. This is actually the first time ever, as long as I've been an active real estate investor, Kevin for more than 20 years where new build purchases for income property make more sense than existing purchases. Why is that? It's because builders know that investors and borrowers are struggling to buy and afford property and make the numbers work. Like you're talking about, that builders are incentivized to buy down your rate. For you, to buy down your mortgage rate, we deal with a lot of providers that buy down your mortgage rate to 5% or less for you, and this is a fixed, long term loan in order to help get the numbers to work. You know, especially where you might see a new build property where the rent to purchase price ratio is less than seven tenths of 1% and it's just like, ah, the numbers wouldn't work paying a higher mortgage rate, but some are willing to buy them down to as little as four and a half. However, if you're looking into buying a new build income producing property, you do want to look at that closely. Who is paying for the discount points to buy down the rate. Is it the builder, or is it you? Because some builders just suggest, hey, you can buy down. You can have your rate bought down. But yeah, the next question is, yeah, okay, who is actually doing the buy down? Yeah.   Keith Weinhold  19:43   I mean, just getting tacked on. I mean, in that instance, I'm assuming that a lot of it's just getting tacked on to the to the back end of the purchase price, or it's being baked into closing costs somewhere somebody is paying for it. More than likely the borrower is paying for it. Paying for it. Is that? Is that? Again, I'm assuming we probably have that here in Florida. Again, I don't really follow the residential market too much, but there's, as you had mentioned, like, kind of on the the outskirts of Tampa, the tertiary, necessary, tertiary, probably more secondary areas. That's where a lot of the builds are happening. Lots of these, you know, planned subdivisions. You know, hundreds and 1000s of homes being put up. And in my understanding, through the grapevine, is I hear that they're, you know, sales volumes is incredibly slow, and a lot of these builders are now offering some creative loan products, again, to what you've just stated there, to attract, not necessarily even just homeowners, but also investors, to come in and buy their product from them. Is, is there a real opportunity there, though? I mean, have you seen investors be able to benefit from buying brand new product at a fair price, with economics at work keeping as a rental?   Keith Weinhold  29:53   I have and Florida has some builders that are almost desperate. I'm a long time investor. Know personally, directly in Florida, income property, Southwest Florida, places like Cape Coral, they have been ground zero for real estate depreciation, a contraction in real estate values year over year of 10% or more in some southwest Florida markets. So like the post pandemic, migration boom is certainly over in Florida. And you know, Kevin, as little as 10 years ago, people used to talk about buy in Florida. It's cheap, it's sunny, cheap and cheerful, like you would sort of hear that sort of thing about Florida real estate. That is no longer true. Florida just is not as cheap as it used to be. It's the same or higher than the national median home price now in Florida. So yes, some builders are rather desperate. The other benefit of buying new build, especially in a place like Florida, where a lot of new building has taken place and the supply actually exceeds the demand here in the short period. You can take advantage of that, not only by getting the rate buy down, but because homeowners insurance premiums are substantially less on new build property, because they're built to today's wind mitigation and other standards than they are existing property. I have a friend that just bought a new Florida duplex through us in Ocala, Florida. That's sort of a central, North Central Florida, on that new build duplex that he paid 400k for. I saw the actual insurance premium, the the rate sheet, $694.06 $694 694 so the benefit of buying new build is you get a lower insurance premium. You get these rate buy down. Sometimes what your builder will buy for you make for you rather and of course, you're probably going to have low maintenance costs for a long time, since it's a new build property, and you get a tenant that is probably going to stay longer than the average duration. They're the first person to ever live there. It's difficult for the tenant to improve their housing situation when they have a new build income property, unless they would go out and buy, and it's a very difficult time to go out and buy. So through that lack of affordability, really, the advantage for a real estate investor is tenants are staying put longer. The average tenancy duration is up because they can't run out and be a first time homebuyer.    Keith Weinhold  32:32   You know, most people think they're playing it safe with their liquid money, but they're actually losing savings accounts and bonds don't keep up when true inflation eats six or 7% of your wealth. Every single year, I invest my liquidity with FFI freedom family investments in their flagship program. Why fixed 10 to 12% returns have been predictable and paid quarterly. There's real world security backed by needs based real estate like affordable housing, Senior Living and health care. Ask about the freedom flagship program when you speak to a freedom coach there, and that's just one part of their family of products, they've got workshops, webinars and seminars designed to educate you before you invest. Start with as little as 25k and finally, get your money working as hard as you do. Get started at Freedom, family investments.com/gre, or send a text. Now it's 1-937-795-8989, yep. Text their freedom coach directly. Again. 1937795898, 77958989   Keith Weinhold  33:44   the same place where I get my own mortgage loans is where you can get yours. Ridge lending group and MLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than anyone because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. Start your prequel and even chat with President chailey Ridge personally while it's on your mind, start at Ridge lending group.com that's Ridge lending group.com   Todd Drowlette  34:17   this is the star of the A and E show the real estate commission. Todd Rowlett, listen to get rich education with my friend Keith Weinhold, and don't quit your Daydream.   Kevin Bupp  34:38   That even trickles down to the to the space that we're in. We're in the mobile home park space. And while we don't have a lot of rentals inside of our portfolio, most of our residents own their home and they rent the land, but throughout our portfolio, we have roughly 400 units that we own that we have as standardized rentals, and we've noticed that trend as well. Historically. 10 years ago, you. Yeah, we track actually about, I can take it back about eight years, where we actually have data to support this. This claim is that our average renter would stay about 16 months. That was fairly standard. Whereas today it's over, it's nearly three years. At this point in time, the majority are staying nearly three in there's probably, there's some variables in there. You know, eight years ago, we weren't bringing a lot of new product into our communities, whereas a lot of the mobile home parks that we purchased today do have a lot of newer mobile homes in them. So again, to your point, it's, it's a it's a newer home. It's fresh. There might not be the first person that lived there, maybe they're only the second, right? But it's still a very new home. It's only a couple years old. All the appliances are new. It's fresh, you know, it's well insulated, and it's just a high quality product, but, but it's nearly double of what we used to experience and what we used to underwrite. It's, you know, which is, which is interesting. You know, I am, I want to, I want to circle back, you'd mentioned Cape Coral. I've got quite a bit, quite a bit of experience with Cape Coral. This is not the first time that Cape Coral and Port Charlotte in those areas have crashed. I mean, like, they've got quite an interesting history in time, back during the GFC, that area down there took probably one of the biggest hits in most of Florida, while, you know, the rest of Florida got, you know, pounded pretty hard with home values and decreasing home values decreasing rents, Port Charlotte, Cape, coral, in those areas as well. It's just It looks very different down there today. As far as you know, the job basis. I mean, there's a little bit more of a, you know, you know, an economy than what existed maybe 1015, years ago. But I don't know if you know the story of Port Charlotte. Is it some interesting history that you can if you want to spend some time, go on YouTube. There's some documentaries out there about, basically when that area was created. There's a two brothers that, essentially, you know, sold, subdivided and sold swampland and sold the dream to the northeast centers to come down and buy, you know, parcels of land down in Cape Coral, port, Charlotte and in that general area. And it took a lot of time for it develop over the years, but it's a beautiful area down there. But again, I think what happened to your point? A lot of folks during the covid era were wanting to come to Florida. We were fairly free down here. The sun was shining, you know, the Gulf of Mexico was warm, and that was a good value for a lot of folks. You know, the values were driving up there. Was home inventory down there. You got a good bang for your buck back at that point in time. But again, there's not, there's not as much as many amenities and supportive economy there. And then to me, there, like you might find in the Tampa area, or you might find Orlando, or even Ocala cow is a phenomenal market right now. And yeah, oh, Cal is, for those that don't you know you mentioned, you referenced the insurance there, which is, that's a great, that's a great price for that, that policy, you know, 700 bucks, basically, that is inland. For those that don't know the geography here in Florida, that is inland. So you are fairly protected from storms, you know, hurricanes and things of that nature, which crush us here on the on the Gulf Coast. But in any event, I just thought I'd share that there's some good, pretty cool documentaries out there in Port Charlotte, in the whole area down there, but a beautiful part of the country. But just Yeah, it's, it's suffering right now. There's, I think there's, I was looking the other day on Zillow. I just play around and check and see what waterfront home prices are going for. And down there, you can basically get a you can get a canal front home going out to the Gulf of Mexico for about $500,000 which was probably closer to 800,000 during, you know, the the boom era of 2021 2022 So historically, we used to buy properties down there. This is back in 2000 and 345, before the the GFC, we could buy those same properties for 150 and $200,000 waterfront home, waterfront homes, deep water canals going out to the Gulf of Mexico. But when it crashed, some of those homes were selling for $120,000 $100,000 so it's interesting to see how things have come kind of full circle multiple times, not just down there, but in all of Florida as well. Florida is always boom and bust. You know, I think they say that with you know, you could probably speak to that most of these coastal towns, whether it be in Florida, whether it be up the eastern seaboard, the coastal markets are definitely more of a roller coaster ride than the Midwestern markets, where you invest in would you? Would you agree with that?   Keith Weinhold  39:09   Yeah, I would. And yeah, you talk about Florida being a boom and bust, and what you said is certainly true in the shorter term. Back in the global financial crisis, we saw more price blood letting in Florida than we did in other states as well. But over the long term, the long arc, I'm bullish on Florida because of just the obvious constant in migration story. In fact, if you go back to decennial censuses, all the way back to the early 1800s every single decennial census, every 10 years, the population of Florida has rose, and it rises faster than the national average, almost all of those 10 year periods. So yeah, over the long term, I certainly like Florida, but Yeah, you sure can, you know, nitpick over the. Short term, but as little as five years from now. If you bought today, as little as five years from now, I could see someone saying, like, yeah, I bought back five years ago, because we're actually in a in a short term, overbuilt condition, and builders bought down my rate. For me, this could look savvy and this could look wise. So if you're looking for opportunity, new building Florida is definitely something to look into.   Kevin Bupp  40:22    I agree. No, absolutely. Like, the long term, you know, opportunity here in Florida, it's there, you know, it's interesting. We've got the we get these hurricanes every year. Last year was a pretty impactful year, at least here on the on the Gulf side, and the neighborhood I lived in, we got flooded. Luckily, our homes in newer builds built up. But, you know, 70% of the neighbor I lived in had 444, or five feet of seawater. And as did the, you know, the long stretch of the Gulf Coast here, and it was the first time this area has ever this immediate air right where we live, has ever had a it wasn't even a direct hit. It just happened to be a massive storm surge. But it was, you know, catastrophic as far as the damage that it did. And a lot of folks that we knew in our neighborhood here. Have lived here for 1020, 3040, or 50 years, and they had never had any floodwater whatsoever. And and there was two camps where they fell in either one camp where they didn't, they whether they had the money to rebuild or not, didn't matter. Like, mentally, they were never going to end up. They were never going to deal with that again. They were moving away, like they just didn't want to go through the heartache of that again. In the second camp, we're basically, I knew it was going to happen at some point in time. This is the kind of price to live, to pay, a live in paradise and and what ultimately occurred is, you know, you saw homes going up for sale, and in the initial chatter for those that that were impacted, is that, who's going to buy that? You know? You know, they're not going to get hardly anything for it. You know, it's just like, who's going to want to live here now that has been flooded. I said, Just wait. I'll say people have us as human beings, have short term memories. We do and and I can promise you, within a few months, those homes will be gobbled up, some will be knocked down, some will be rebuilt, but inevitably, the prices will come back incredibly strong, and you'll see very limited inventory, at least in desirable markets that are here on the water. And that's exactly that happened. Within six month period of time, prices are back up. You can't get your hands on a flooded property now, or one that had been flooded, right?   Keith Weinhold  42:12   I can believe it. And this is not the way that you want to have a waterfront property when the water inundates you and comes to you, that is not the way to buy waterfront property.   Kevin Bupp  42:23   Yeah, interesting, but, uh, no, Keith has been a fun conversation, my friend. So let's, let's talk about, you know, I like to you'll peek inside your brain if you were going to start all over again, from scratch, you know, you've been at this now, what? How long? Almost two decades. It's been, been quite   Keith Weinhold  42:38   Yes, yes, more than two decades. Is that what you're asking, how would I start, starting from today?   Kevin Bupp  42:47   Yeah, like, what would you do? Where would you focus, what asset type and any particular strategy outside of what you're doing today? You know, where would you focus your time?   Keith Weinhold  42:55   Actually, it is quite a coincidence. The way that I would start all over again in real estate is the way that I did start in real estate. It worked out phenomenally, in a way it makes sense, because if it hadn't worked out phenomenally, you never would have heard of me, and I wouldn't have become this real estate thought leader or whatever, because this is a way, an everyday person with virtually no real estate knowledge and very little money. Can start out, what I did is I made the first ever home of any kind, a four Plex building where I lived in one unit and rented out the other three. This is something very actionable for your for your audience as well, Kevin. Or if maybe you're a listener that has a an adult daughter or son and they want to get started in real estate with a bang without much money, is to buy a four Plex, just like I did. You can use an FHA loan, a three and a half percent down payment. You have to live in one of the units at least 12 months, and at last check, your minimum credit score only needs to be 580 now you will get a lower interest rate if you have a higher credit score. But those are the only three criteria you need. I mean, what a country talk about? The American Dream. You can use that FHA program with a single family home, duplex, triplex or fourplex, that's the formula. That's how I began. Actually ended up living there a little more than three years. But what that did for me was remarkable, and in fact, you know what it taught me? Kevin and every listener can benefit from this. It's paradoxical. A lot of times I say things that you would not expect to hear that make you go, wait what? Whoa, how can that be? Is what it taught me is that I don't want to focus on getting my money to work for me. You probably wouldn't expect to hear that. It's actually a middle class paradigm to say, well, I don't want to work for money. I also want to get my money to work for me. I'm telling. You that that's going to keep you middle class, or worse, that's going to keep you working until old age, and you won't have an outsized life and retirement and options. If you think that the best and highest use of your dollar is getting your money to work for you, it's not what's the paradigm shift if this four Plex building taught me the way I started out, which is still the way that I would start out today, and you probably heard this before, but I'm going to put a new twist on it. Is you want to ethically get other people's money to work for you, and we can be ethical. We can do good in the world. Provide housing that's clean, safe, affordable and functional. Never get called a slumlord that way. You can employ other people's money three ways at the same time, ethically by buying an income property with a loan, like we've been talking about in Florida, or with this fourplex building. How do you do it three ways at the same time, using the bank's money for the loan and leverage, which greatly amplifies your return beyond anything Compound Interest can do. The second of three ways you're ethically employing other people's money is you're using the tenants money to pay for the mortgage and some of the operating expenses on this fourplex. And then the third way you're simultaneously using other people's money is using the government's money for generous tax incentives at scale. So the lesson is that the best and highest use of your dollar is not getting just your money to work for you, it's other people's money, in this case, the banks, the tenants and the governments. That's what you can do. I mean, what an opportunity. A lot of people just don't even know about that FHA program.    Kevin Bupp  46:41   Yeah, I actually, I wasn't, I wasn't aware that it was that low of a down payment key. That's no idea. Three and a half percent, you said, a 550 credit score, believe me, 580 minimum credit.   Keith Weinhold  46:51   And you have to, thirdly, you have to owner occupy a unit for at least 12 months. And hey, I'm not saying it's always easy. You know, you got to think about that. Your neighbors are also your tenants. And I don't know how to fix stuff. I still don't. I'm a terrible handyman, but it's good to learn a little about about human relations. And you know, letting finding a general way to let the tenants know that you have a mortgage to pay every month. I mean, just that alone can can help them ensure timely rent payments. But, and this also doesn't mean every area, or every four Plex building is is good, but, yeah, that's the opportunity. That's how I started. I would totally do it again.   Kevin Bupp  47:27   Can you use that FHA program more than once? Or is that just the one time you know your first, first, first primary home purchase?   Keith Weinhold  47:34   It's generally you can only use one at a time. There are some exceptions, like if you and your job move, like, a certain mile radius away from where you got the first one, but, yeah, generally it's only going to be one at a time. A lot of people don't use it. Don't know about it. In fact, if you have VA benefits, Veterans Administration benefits, you can get a similar program, like I was talking about, but zero down payment, rather than three and a half with an FHA loan. It's a really good, amazingly good opportunity.    Kevin Bupp  48:05   That's incredible. That's incredible. Keith, my friend, I appreciate you coming back going. It's always good to catch up with you. Good to see that you're doing well.   Keith Weinhold  48:17   Oh yeah, a terrific chat there with Kevin. I hope that you like that really. At our core, real estate investors are not day trading. We are decade trading. Now I'm in western New York today, at the other end of the state, NYU compiled some terrific statistics that you want to hear about for nearly the past 100 years. It is the annualized returns of six major asset classes. This spans, the Great Depression, a number of recessions, World War Two, the New Deal, gold standard, abandonment, brendawoods, the Cold War, Civil Rights Movements, oil shocks, Volcker rate hikes, the.com boom and crash, the 911, attacks, the housing bubble, covid, 19, AI revolution and 16 presidencies, all those ups and downs and war and peace and economic booms and economic lows, and now there is going to be a mild tongue in cheek element here, because stats like this drive real estate investors crazy, but this is often how mainstream media portrays asset class comparisons. All right, the six asset classes are stocks, cash, bonds, real estate, gold, and then inflation, which isn't in an asset class, but it's a benchmark. All of these begin from the year 1930 so spanning almost 100 years. Let's take it from the lowest return to the high. Best return the lowest is inflation. And what do you think the CPI inflation rate is averaged over the last 100 years? Any guess at all? You might be surprised. It is 3.2% Yeah, even though the Fed's CPI inflation target has long been 2% it runs hot longer than most people believe. So therefore, today's inflation rate isn't high, it's just normal. The next highest return is cash at 3.3% How did NYU measure that the yield from three months T bills? Next up is bonds. They returned 4.3% that's the 10 year treasury average of the last 100 years. The next highest is real estate at 4.7% that uses the K Shiller Index. Now we're up to the second highest. It is gold at 5.6% and the highest is stocks at 10.3% using the s, p5, 100, and this was all laid out in a brilliant chart that also shows the returns by each decade for all of these asset classes. You'll remember that I shared the chart with you in our newsletter a few weeks ago. Now you are smarter and more informed than the layperson is, you know, but they see this chart and they think, Oh, well, that's it. I've got my answer. Real Estate's 4.7% appreciation loses out to gold's 5.6 and stocks 10.3 and then they go back to watching Love is blind. But of course, rental property owners like us know that we often make five times or more than this 4.7% when we consider all those other income streams and profit centers, leverage, rents, ROA and inflation, profiting on our debt, it's often 25 to 30% total. It's sort of like judging a Ferrari by only measuring its cupholders or something. Now, would stocks 10.3% get adjusted up as well? Yeah, probably a little, because the s and p5 100 currently averages a 1.2% dividend yield, so that might be added on the 4.7% return for real estate. That cites the popular Case Shiller Index. And the way that that index works is that it uses a repeat sales methodology. So what that means is that the Case Shiller measures the sales price of the same property over time. Therefore a property would have to sell at least twice in order to be measured by this popular and widely cited K Shiller Index. So then the 4.7% appreciation figure excludes new build homes, and new builds appreciate more than existing homes, but you do have more existing homes that sell the new build homes, so we can pretty safely assume that real estate's long term appreciation rate is higher, likely between five and 6% there it is. So yeah, making comparisons across asset classes like this is pretty tricky, because investment properties leverage and cash flow gets nullified. And when you make comparisons like this, it's a big reminder that even if you can't get much cash flow off a 20 or 25% down real estate payment, sheesh, most people put a 100% payment into stocks, gold or Bitcoin, and they don't expect any cash flow. And Bitcoin isn't part of what we're looking at for this century long view, because it did not exist until 2009 and also NYU had to use some alternative statistics. Sometimes the s, p5, 100 index only came into being in 1957 and the Case Shiller Index 1987    Keith Weinhold  54:02   next week here on the show, I expect to answer your listener questions from beginner to advanced. You've been writing in with some good ones for the production team here at GRE. That's our sound engineer, Vedran Jampa, who has edited every single GRE podcast episode since 2014 QC in show notes, Brenda Almendariz, video lead, brendawali strategy talamagal, video editor, seroza, KC and producer me, we'll run it back next week for you. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.   Speaker 3  54:36   Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC, exclusively.   Speaker 2  55:04   The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building, get richeducation.com  

You know what they say – the first $100,000 is the hardest, and it feels like scaling Mount Everest in flip-flops. In this episode of *The Higher Standard*, Chris and Saied unpack why breaking that six-figure milestone is such a struggle and how even Charlie Munger (RIP) called it a "b*tch." But once you hit that $100K, things start compounding faster than your excuses for skipping leg day. It's like flipping a switch to rocket toward $1 million – or so we tell ourselves between sweet cream nitros and existential dread.➡️ The boys also explore childhood money habits that might be sabotaging your wallet and dive into the *Case Shiller Index* to understand the warning signs of recessionary bubbles. From historical asset crashes to the 2008 housing crisis, they highlight why economic indicators are more than just fancy graphs. Saied's expressions are priceless – equal parts shock, dread, and "I need a drink." So buckle up, hit play, and see if you're on a path to wealth or just another bubble waiting to burst. Smash that like button, ring the bell, and remember: the road to wealth is paved with memes, mindset shifts, and maybe a little less avocado toast.

In this episode, David Lykken interviews Allan Weiss, founder and CEO of Weiss Analytics, about his pioneering work in real estate analytics, including the development of the Case-Shiller Index. Allan discusses his latest innovations, ValShare and ValPro, which allow homeowners to sell portions of their home equity and provide AI-driven property valuations, respectively. These tools offer new ways for homeowners, realtors, and lenders to manage risks, accurately price properties, and enhance real estate transactions. Allan's insights highlight how these advancements are set to transform the real estate industry.

In today's episode, we dive into the latest economic updates, focusing on the upcoming rate cuts and key financial indicators. Broadcasting live from my backyard, I discuss the recent Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) report, its implications for inflation, and the Federal Reserve's potential moves. We also explore the significance of the Case-Shiller Index, consumer confidence, and various jobs reports, all while assessing their impact on the housing market. Join me as I break down these critical topics and provide insights into what the future might hold for the economy. Stay tuned for an in-depth analysis of the economic news of the week, including predictions on pending home sales, the unemployment rate, and the latest earnings reports from major companies. This episode is packed with valuable information for anyone interested in understanding the current financial landscape and making informed investment decisions. Timeline Summary [00:00] - Introduction to the episode and overview of the PCE report. [00:53] - Core inflation numbers and their impact on potential rate cuts. [01:27] - Discussion on upcoming economic news, including the Case-Shiller Index and consumer confidence. [02:33] - Insights into private payrolls and pending home sales. [02:59] - Analysis of the Federal Reserve's upcoming rate decision. [03:54] - Weekly jobless claims and ISM Manufacturing report. [04:19] - The big jobs number and unemployment rate predictions. [05:06] - Upcoming earnings reports from major companies. [05:29] - Predictions for pending home sales and their impact on the market. [07:59] - Meet Kevin's bold predictions on rate cuts and housing market trends. [08:18] - The historical context of rate cuts and inflation control. [09:13] - Information about upcoming events and community groups for listeners. Links & Resources Join our community: School Community Follow us on social media for updates: Instagram | YouTube Thank you for tuning in! If you enjoyed this episode, please rate, follow, and review our podcast. Don't forget to share it with friends who might find it valuable. Stay connected for more insights in our next episode!

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Are you looking for a mortgage advisor who can understand your unique scenario or someone who is licensed in all 50 States as well as Puerto Rico? Then you are on the right channel! I can help you whether you are a first-time homebuyer, or with any type of loan type, you wish to use.  Let's get started!

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news we are in the shadow period until the US House votes on the debt deal. The chatter accentuates the risks of failure, so markets are holding their breath. But they also assume it will get passed.Meanwhile, the data being released is all quite bland, and will be until the May non-farm payrolls report is available. American consumer sentiment as monitored in the Conference Board survey held in May when a small dip was anticipated. This is consistent with the good personal income data we had recently, and a declining inflation rate. But overall levels are still low; the Expectations Index has now remained below 80, a level associated with a recession within the next year, for every month since February 2022, with the exception of a brief uptick in December 2022. But the endless signals of recession just don't seem to materialise, probably because of the strong labour markets.We get the May US non-farm payrolls report on Saturday NZT and it is expected to show a modest +190,000 gain - although don't be surprised if it beats that estimate yet again.The Dallas Fed survey of factories in their oil patch is quite subdued in May which is probably no surprise given the languishing oil price. And with today's oil price retreat it will probably be even lower in June.According to the US Federal Housing Finance Agency, American house prices rose in the year to March at about their long-run average of ~4%, ending the pandemic turmoil period when for a few years they were up almost +20%. Separately, the Case-Shiller index on house prices in major urban areas fell in the year to March and below their long-run average. Analysts tend to watch the Case-Shiller Index more.In China, they have been getting a lot of late-season rain and that is causing havoc with crop harvesting. They have lost millions of tonnes of wheat right before harvest, with global price implications. The unseasonal rains have infected crops with blight and caused pre-harvest sprouting. That sets China up for some massive imports, disrupting global prices - and their own plans at a time when local food security is a high-level concern.And staying in China, a strong echo from their brutal pandemic lockdown is starting to play out in their economy. Memories of that has reinforced the urge by households to save, and at such a level that it seems to be inhibiting their economy from recovering. They have a liquidity trap which is frustrating efforts by Beijing to expand domestic demand and increase consumption's share of national GDP. And this is putting severe pressures on local governments.These two big trends in the Chinese economy has seen their yuan devalue further.In Japan, their jobless rate fell back to the 2.6% level it was a few months ago, which was a better result than expected. An expanding economy is having a positive effect on employment and wages now.EU sentiment is still in the doldrums and fell in May to a six month low. There was little change in consumer sentiment, but manufacturer sentiment eased lower.In Australia, they are about to hand down a NZ$485 mln financial penalty on the Crown casino business for breaches of its AML-CFT laws. As such it will be one of the largest money-laundering penalties imposed on a casina anywhere in the world. But no-one went to jail. Despite its size, Crown casinos won't be crippled financially - it just seems like a cost of doing business in the world of gambling.The UST 10yr yield will start today at 3.70% and down -7 bps as Wall Street trades again after their holiday weekend. The price of gold will start today at US$1959/oz and up +US$3 from yesterday.And oil prices are a lot lower today from yesterday at just over US$69/bbl in the US and that is down -US$4/bbl. The international Brent price is now just on US$73.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar starts today marginally softer at 60.4 USc. Against the Aussie we are marginally firmer 92.8 AUc. Against the euro we are softer at 56.3 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is down -10 bps at 69.3.The bitcoin price is almost unchanged today at US$27,739. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just on +/- 0.9%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Prospective homebuyers are getting a little more hopeful that mortgage rates will come down, and a greater share is feeling confident that it's a good time to buy a home, according to the Fannie Mae Home Purchase Sentiment Index, which has recovered slightly from its all-time low in October. The data comes from a survey of about 1,000 homeowners and renters who were asked more than 100 questions about their attitudes toward home buying and the economy.  The Fed has indicated that slower rate hikes are on the way and may even cease once rates reach just over 5% since December data shows inflation is moderating. Meanwhile, many markets are already shifting into the hands of the buyer, with sellers offering more concessions, and the Case-Shiller Index shows home prices declining month-over-month, though they're still elevated compared to a year ago. More prospective homebuyers are betting that the affordability crunch will ease, likely as a result of these changes. But if their optimism translates to increased demand, that could cause prices to rise again.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Jason is in the Hot Seat today as Joe Brown of Heresy Financial asks him about his contrarian views on the housing market's supposed impending crash. They also discuss single versus multifamily investments, and identify the different facets and causes of the housing shortages across the America. Jason also shares a few slides from his Hartman Comparison Index (HCI) which shows that houses are not as expensive as one might think! But before that we invite you to our 2 city Alabama Property Tour! Get to know this linear market and discover what makes this place a very good choice in which to invest! Key Takeaways: Jason's editorial 1:20 Join our 2 city Alabama property tour. Go to JasonHartman.com for details Joe Brown interviewing Jason 2:38 Jason's contrarian views 4:25 No such thing as US national housing market; 3 types of market 6:42 Identifying cyclical and linear markets 9:00 Single family vs. multifamily; investing vs. speculating 13:20 Single family housing shortage; cause and effect of government regulations 17:34 Environmental racism; the NIMBY syndrome 19:00 New home construction and resale; builders cutting deals with large housing institutions 24:51 The non-existent stressed home seller; benefits the home improvement industries 27:12 Comparing the Case-Shiller Index vs. Hartman Comparison Index 32:15 Housing prices vs. haircuts vs. inflation 35:49 Mental Hedonic Indexing  37:33 Summary: Mortgage Sensitivity Index, T.I.N.A.   Mentioned: Equity Residential, JP Morgan, BlackRock, Invitation Homes, D.R. Horton Tomas Sowell ShadowStats.com Grab Jason's Hartman Comparison Index (HCI) Follow Jason on TWITTER, INSTAGRAM & LINKEDIN Twitter.com/JasonHartmanROI Instagram.com/jasonhartman1/ Linkedin.com/in/jasonhartmaninvestor/ Call our Investment Counselors at: 1-800-HARTMAN (US) or visit: https://www.jasonhartman.com/ Free Class:  Easily get up to $250,000 in funding for real estate, business or anything else: http://JasonHartman.com/Fund CYA Protect Your Assets, Save Taxes & Estate Planning: http://JasonHartman.com/Protect Get wholesale real estate deals for investment or build a great business – Free Course: https://www.jasonhartman.com/deals Special Offer from Ron LeGrand: https://JasonHartman.com/Ron Free Mini-Book on Pandemic Investing: https://www.PandemicInvesting.com  

S&P Case-Shiller Index records the largest monthly decline in home prices since 1987. What does it all mean and does it tell the full story?

由今日起，試吓個新嘅模式。每日我會搵幾個題目，同時幾個唔同嘅報道，從唔同嘅角度去分析事情。 呢個模式，亦係最初我開呢個 Blog 嘅時候，其中一個初衷。今日揀畀大家嘅題目有： 1.  全世界買美債 美聯儲 最近發表嘅一篇文章，提出一個構想，就係將美債嘅市場開放畀全部人參與，就係所謂嘅 all-to-all trading ，呢個建議無疑會斷咗某啲依家嘅一級市場庄家嘅米路。但點解聯儲局有呢個諗法？最終呢件事成事嘅機會又有幾大呢？延伸閱讀 1  - Should we all get to trade Treasuries? ｜FT Alphavillehttps://www.ft.com/content/58184e30-b641-470e-8ce4-65997ec3def9 2.  樓市幾時爆新一期經濟學人用樓市做封面，話加息周期下，全球樓市泡沫有爆破危機；但又唔需要太驚恐喎，因為今時唔同往日，唔會好似 2007、08 咁。Bloomberg 有篇講 Austin, Texas 嘅放盤急升，質疑目前樓市有所謂 lock-in effect 嘅講法；即係話，如果唔到價，業主大不了轉售為租。另外我亦都同大家睇下最新 Case-Shiller Index 反映咗啲乜。  延伸閱讀 2.1 - A global house-price slump is coming | The Economisthttps://www.economist.com/leaders/2022/10/20/a-global-house-price-slump-is-coming 延伸閱讀 2.2 - Think Homeowners Will Stay Put? Austin Suggests Otherwise | Bloomberg Opinion https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-10-25/think-homeowners-will-stay-put-austin-texas-suggests-otherwise 延伸閱讀 2.3 - Case-Shiller: National House Price Index "Continued to Decelerate" to 13.0% year-over-year increase in August | Calculated Risk3. 中式震盪治療 二十大過後，究竟世界點睇中國？路透社呢篇夾議夾敍嘅報道，講出外界對中國經濟嘅憂慮，尤其係所謂 #第三代習班子 缺乏經濟同中央政策經驗啲問題。 但另一邊更精彩嘅文章，係 FT 刊登 由 Rockefeller International 主席 Ruchir Sharma 寫嘅評論；當中指出中國經濟嘅幾大死位，包括人口、資本等。 最後，有讀者問我有冇中國近代經濟史嘅書推介，咁啱見到 Project Syndicate 有人推薦 Isabella Weber 寫嘅 How China Escaped Shock Therapy ；先此聲明，我未睇呢本書，但從佢嘅脈絡睇都應該值得望一望。我望完如果覺得正，會去讀埋再寫讀書報告。請耐心等待。延伸閱讀 3.1 - Analysis: China's newly empowered Xi faces a daunting to-do list ｜Reuters https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-newly-empowered-xi-faces-daunting-to-do-list-2022-10-25 延伸閱讀 3.2 - China's economy will not overtake the US until 2060, if ever https://www.ft.com/content/cff42bc4-f9e3-4f51-985a-86518934afbe 延伸閱讀 3.3 - How China Escaped Shock Therapy The Market Reform Debate https://www.routledge.com/How-China-Escaped-Shock-Therapy-The-Market-Reform-Debate/Weber/p/book/9781032008493 4. AI 改變世界有留意我 FB 同 IG 嘅朋友，都應該見到我呢期好鍾意玩 dall-e 嘅 AI 作畫程式；其實我係想每日透過呢個方法，一來令自己更了解唔同嘅藝術風格，培養個人嘅藝術修養，二來就係提升自己以文字描述影像嘅能力，同時亦都透過 dall-e 嘅作畫，去寫篇短文。  有廣告公司用 deepfake 去做廣告片，表面上呢個係一個法律同道德問題，但我覺得當中可以有更深嘅哲學討論。另外，有個香港人 Angus Lee 響德國開咗一場以 AI 作曲嘅歌劇 Chasing Waterfalls ；除咗說好香港故事，仲有啲乜呢？ 最後， Tyler Cowen 有篇文討論，當 AI 主導咗我哋可以睇到啲乜嘅時候，究竟我哋又可以點樣保持自我呢？  延伸閱讀 4.1 - ‘Deepfakes' of Celebrities Have Begun Appearing in Ads, With or Without Their Permission ｜ WSJ https://www.wsj.com/articles/deepfakes-of-celebrities-have-begun-appearing-in-ads-with-or-without-their-permission-11666692003 延伸閱讀 4.2 - AI opera Chasing Waterfalls poses existential questions about human identity and the influence of the digital world ｜ SCMPhttps://www.scmp.com/native/culture/topics/stage-without-boundaries/article/3196398/ai-opera-chasing-waterfalls-poses-existential-questions-about-human-identity-and-influence-digital 延伸閱讀 4.3 - Get Ready to Relearn How to Use the Internet ｜ Bloomberg Opinion https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-10-25/ai-will-require-you-to-relearn-how-to-use-the-internet 聯絡利世民： https://linktr.ee/leesimon.me This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit leesimon.substack.com/subscribe

Home Prices Drop At Fastest Pace Since The Case Shiller Index Began. The Real Estate market is changing fast. Here is a link to my Real Estate channel ( Real Estate Ninja ) please subscribe: https://youtu.be/lIdcflXVhVA https://www.youtube.com/redirect?event=video_description&redir_token=QUFFLUhqbjhDUWgzVmlBY1N4QzRsOV9HYUZhRlZrRW9VUXxBQ3Jtc0tuV1JWcDd0OXF0TlRvek5VUHhHUElfOXRoTk1UWDYxT1hfUGdpVU02a1pySFBuQ09xMDBLMDFJNEdTSVN2M2ZDdzRESlQtdmlqZnBaYXlmUEhZQVVqbkJtcVpIaTFrckxadm1WNm9zSTVWclRxanpZdw&q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cnbc.com%2F2022%2F09%2F27%2Fjuly-sp-case-shiller-index-home-prices-cooled-at-the-fastest-rate-in-index-history.html&v=xGeyB6wv2vU

Today, Jason is interviewed by Daniel Kwak of The Kwak Brothers. Is Recession INCOMING? Will it Change Home Prices? We explore topics about an upcoming recession and if they will affect home prices and several other topics when it comes to the housing market, inventory, and the overall housing market for investors & buyers alike. He also talks briefly about the NAR's Affordability Index, the Case-Shiller Index and his own Hartman Comparison Index Key Takeaways: 1:23 Where are home prices going in 2022? 2:45 The inventory problem 7:00 New buyers coming up with down payments 10:38 Is it demand or supply shortage? 15:09 Outlook on rent prices 22:10 First time homebuyers being priced out? 24:31 If there is a recession, what does it look like? 32:02 Final thoughts   Free Class:  Easily get up to $250,000 in funding for real estate, business or anything else  http://JasonHartman.com/Fund Free Report on Pandemic Investing: https://www.PandemicInvesting.com Jason's TV Clips: https://vimeo.com/549444172  Free Class: CYA Protect Your Assets, Save Taxes & Estate Planning: http://JasonHartman.com/Protect  Special Offer from Ron LeGrand:  https://JasonHartman.com/Ron What do Jason's clients say?  http://JasonHartmanTestimonials.com Contact our Investment Counselors at: www.JasonHartman.com  Watch, subscribe and comment on Jason's videos on his official YouTube channel: YouTube.com/c/JasonHartmanRealEstate/videos Free white paper on the Hartman Comparison Index™  Guided Visualization for Investors: JasonHartman.com/visualization Jason's videos in his other sites: JasonHartman.com/Rumble JasonHartman.com/Bitchute JasonHartman.com/Odysee

SUMMARY: After a slight dip home price appreciation ticked up in December according to the Case-Shiller Index and FHFA Home Price Index and consumer confidence fell in February but not as much as expected...SourceHome Price Appreciation Is Back On The RiseConsumer Confidence Falls In FebruaryBut wait, there's more...SIGN UP: Markets & Mortgages  Morning Newsletter

Andrew Davis is the Director of Investor Relations for PassiveInvesting.com, where he has helped raise over $200 million dollars for various assets. He began his career in sales, working for Fortune 500 consumer packaged goods companies, receiving multiple promotions and developing leadership, sales, marketing, and operational experience. Andrew is passionate about real estate investing since his early college years, he began the “side hustle” of investing in single-family RE in his 20's and raised capital from friends, family, and in some cases complete strangers to acquire his first few deals. In this episode, Andrew will share insights about the passive investment strategy, how they compare to direct investing, how to participate in it, and some red flags to be aware of. Episode Links: https://www.passiveinvesting.com/ https://www.passiveinvesting.com/andrew-davis/ --- Before we jump into the episode, here's a quick disclaimer about our content. The Remote Real Estate Investor podcast is for informational purposes only, and is not intended as investment advice. The views, opinions and strategies of both the hosts and the guests are their own and should not be considered as guidance from Roofstock. Make sure to always run your own numbers, make your own independent decisions and seek investment advice from licensed professionals.   Michael: What's going on everybody? Welcome to another episode of The Remote Real Estate Investor. I'm Michael Albaum. And today with me, I have a very special guest, Andrew Davis, who is the director of Investor Relations at passive investing.com. And today Andrew is going to be talking to us today about what you need to be aware of if you are going to participate in a passive investment, what passive investments even are, and some red flags to be aware of, if you're going to be jumping on board with these. So let's get into it.   Andrew Davis, what's going on, man, thanks so much for taking the time to hang out with me today. I really appreciate you coming on.   Andrew: Michael, it is my pleasure. Thanks so much for having me.   Michael: No, it's my pleasure. So you're based on the East Coast, right?   Andrew: That's correct. I'm in Asheville, North Carolina, not to be confused with Nashville, Tennessee. You got to menstruate the ash.   Michael: I could see that being a very common misconception.   Andrew: Yeah, you really gotta really gotta lean into that A.   Michael: So tell us, give us a quick backstory on kind of who you are, where you come from, and how you got involved in the passive investing space?   Andrew: Yeah, absolutely. So yeah, I am Andrew Davis, I'm the director of Investor Relations for passive investing.com. And we are a private equity, a commercial real estate investment group. So what we do effectively is we buy large institutional quality, multifamily and self-storage assets. And all that means is, you really kind of three factors: the market, the deal size, and the class of the investment. And so 30 to 100 plus million dollar purchase price, this is kind of our typical acquisition. So as we're wrapping up our biggest deal today in the Fort Myers market, that's 109,000,300 Plus unit deal.   It's yeah, big what the managing partners called Big Boy deal and, and then it's, uh, you know, we played just kind of higher quality asset classes, we'll probably dig into that a little bit more. So it's what's called the suburban class as that we also might be class assets. And then the markets that we play in are primarily the Sunbelt market. So those are North and South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Texas, and Arizona. And then we're also looking in Denver, Colorado, and Boise, Idaho, as well. And so that's just kind of high level of our strategy.   And how I landed here, is, you know, started out in the single family space like many of your listeners have or are, and man, it's, it's a tremendous place to start. But a lot of wealth can be created there. And there's tons of opportunities there. And it's a great place to kick your teeth. And that's how, I started. And so I'm very much a learn by doing guy. And so I was kind of in an in a transition career wise, I grew up on the West Coast. My wife and I met, she was in Florida. And she had just started a business. So I was like, who's gonna move and I said, I'll move on, I'll have an adventure. So I moved to move to Orlando, Florida, quit my job sold my house. I had bought in the Portland market at a very good time. So I sent out some capital had some flexibility and just kind of floundering. And my wife, I think, six months into being married was getting pretty tired of kind of woe is me. And she's like, Well, you never shut up about real estate investing. So maybe you should do something with that.   Michael: You look up from your Halo game, like alright, fine.   Andrew: Okay, fine. All right. All right. And it was kind of funny. It was like this lightbulb moment for me. And I was like, You're right. I love this stuff. And so I just, I just dove in. And I started going to local RIA meetups and just anybody that I knew that had anything to do with real estate, taking them out to lunch, or coffee or whatever, tons of time on bigger pockets, reading every book I could get my hands on. And really just got a got a basic idea for how to flip the house and kind of how to evaluate a rental, right? Just basic underwriting didn't really know what I was doing, but I knew enough to be dangerous. And so then in kind of reading and learning about that, I realized that oh, people go into these different meetups and things like oh, just people have capital. And there's people with deals and these people partner up and they get stuff done. And I'm like, I'm probably somebody to get into giving me money for to flip a house.   And so I found a house to flip it was a foreclosure like 87,000 which is silly to think that you could buy that in today's market and put together a little deck and found a contractor to partner with me to do the rehab and he was gonna pay for it. We were gonna split the profits and then found an investor literally on bigger pockets to come in and fund the acquisition.   Michael: Amazing!   Andrew: My first deal and which is amazing because I had no experience.   Michael: Right, right!   Andrew: You know, I was I was again I just knew enough to be dangerous. And so long story short, we broke even on that deal the contractor was not great. And you didn't do a good job on the rent no but thankfully we broke on even. Isabel and I, my wife broke even. I was able to pay the investor he made like a 17% return. But it really what that did for me is it really kind of it opened me up to the power of real estate investing, right and the power of not being limited by my own capital, of knowing that, hey, if I can provide value in these areas, then other people can provide quite literal value in other areas, there could be partnerships formed, and I can grow a lot faster that way. And so I built a little business, just buying single family homes duplexes doing a mix of flips and buy and hold rentals and got up to a point over silver years, where I had 16 units. And that was good.   But I just would get to the end of every single one of these deals. And it's a lot of work, a lot of work to put them together a lot of work to renovate them a lot of work to manage them, deal with tenant issues, all the things that go along with single family investing. And it's like, man, this is just the risk and the effort, the reward for the risk. And the effort just does not feel commensurate to me.   Michael: Yeah, yeah!   Andrew: And as I was in this space, and I was very fortunate to just connect with some really sharp operators in that in the commercial in the multifamily mobile home park, self-storage, just people that were buying these larger assets, and every single one of them would tell me, hey, it's the same amount of work, but the reward is exponentially higher. And so that really just continued, I really, really kept looking for ways to get into that space and connecting with different operators. And I also knew, hey, I'm really strong over here, right? I'm good on the capital raising side, I'm good with people, I'm good at building relationships, but you know, operationally details like that kind of stuff. That's just not, that's not my forte. So I really knew that I needed to have a partnership. I knew that I had, I had value and, and a skill set to bring. And then there was also, you know, a lot that that, that I needed, right to kind of operate in my zone, my circle of competence, as Warren Buffett would call it.   And so, you know, long story short, this investor relations are all opened up the passive investing.com and I have been following these guys for a while, and felt very, very highly of them, and what they were doing in the space and just heard a lot of really good things about them. And so I just jumped on it. You know, hard pitch myself and, and, like crazy for the interview, I mean, just lift, you know, got to know them inside and out. And was very fortunate to be to be awarded the role. And we just had a lot of growth as a group. So in 2021… This is an extremely long intro. Michael: No, no! It's so good, so good.   Andrew: You can cut it!   But in 2021, we raised roughly $197 million from passive investors, so individual retail investors, and you know, our typical investor is somebody who is oftentimes a tired landlord, right. And they, you know, they bought in on the principles and the fundamentals of real estate, but they're tired of dealing with tenants and toilets.   And so in that, in the course of that time period, I did the math, I had 1700, investor phone calls in 2021. So I had the privilege to talk to a lot of people and move from kind of an individual contributor role into a director role, and was just recently able to bring on two additional investor relations guys to just support me and onboarding new passive investors into our network and just informing them answering their questions, letting them know, kind of the mission and the strategy. And so that is sort of the meandering way I got to be where I am.   Michael: Oh, that's so awesome. So Andrew, here's what was your thesis correct or accurate in that so many of your investors of the 1700 are folks that are just tired landlords. They just don't want to do the direct ownership thing anymore.   Andrew: Yeah, I would say it is probably, it's approaching 50%. And that's anecdotal. So I would say that our investors are a mix of every single one of our investors is bought in on the idea of real estate, right? And it's a mix of like highly paid professionals. So lawyers, doctors, engineers, executives that want to diversify their portfolio, want to have an allocation of their portfolio in real estate, but quite literally don't have the time to go out and buy single family homes and renovate them and manage them or manage the managers. And then and then yes, a large chunk of them are folks who have acquired we have one investor in the Atlanta market, and he was a builder and over his career, he built, he built I mean built tons of homes for himself. He built 65 Single Family rentals. And he and his wife did very well to build their obviously did very well in building up a rental portfolio for himself. They're in their 60s. They're there kids are grown, they want to travel. They don't want to managing 65 single family home. And so he just very strategically liquidated those and rolled those in a very tax conscious way into our passive investments. So I would say, it's a good chunk of people that want one of those benefits, but just don't want to have to worry about it.   Michael: Okay. And if someone listening to that is like raising their hand like, yes, me, I fit the bill, I fit the category. I also don't want to do the direct ownership thing. But once the exposure is bought into real estate, why wouldn't someone just go buy a REIT? I mean, what's the difference between like, this type of passive investment or wheat or something that's traded on the open market?   Andrew: Yeah, man, that is a tremendous question. So you've got a couple, you've got a couple just…   Michael: Yes, that's one for my episode.   Andrew: You've got a couple of distinctions between a publicly traded REIT a real estate investment trust, and investing, investing passively in a syndication or in a sponsored real estate deal. And so I think REITs have their merits. However, oftentimes, what you see in REITs, is a one you don't really have direct ownership. And so one of the things that people really like about investing with us is when you invest in in a deal with us, or somebody else that's using the structure that we use this, this spital 6B or this  spital 6C structure. You are becoming what's called an LP or limited partner. And so what that means is you participate in all the benefits of direct ownership, without any of the liability, or the management responsibilities or the operational responsibilities, so you still get monthly cash flows, you still get capital appreciation. So say on a 50, or $100,000 investment, over a five year time horizon, you could potentially see a 2x of that invested capital, in addition to your monthly distributions. And then the third benefit that really a lot of that's it's really appealing to a lot of people is the pass through depreciation. And so every single one of these assets that we acquire, and the sponsors competent, there'll be executing this strategy as well, is they do a cost segregation study. And basically, what that does is it takes the depreciable life of the asset, which 27.5 years, I believe, for real estate, and it fast forwards the majority of that depreciation benefit into the first year. And then as an equity owner, or a limited partner, in that deal alongside us, the general partners operating the deal, you get that depreciation pass through you. And so you can use that to offset any passive income that you receive and the most tax professional, your tax professional. This is not tax advice, but it effectively becomes tax free income. So that's, that's you get the control. And I think when you invest in a REIT, what a lot of people like about investing real estate is the control of your capital, the different things that you can do with it with a REIT, you kind of forego those benefits, you're invested. You're invested in the asset class, but you're not getting a lot of the benefits of being invested in real estate.   Michael: Okay, okay. But you might get some of that liquidity flexibility, so to speak, because I can buy a share today sell it tomorrow, that's gonna be very different with a with a, would you call it a direct investment? In a syndication?   Andrew: Yeah, yeah, absolutely. Absolutely. So that is, that's the tradeoff is the liquidity piece. And so what we what we tell investors is, hey, we're underwriting these projects, for a five year hold, we've exited six deals. So far today, there's a group that's called having a full cycle deal, when you buy it, execute the business plan, you sell it, every single one of those exits has been three years or less. But that's never a guarantee. So your money is going to be locked up for a time period. And of course, we'll be receiving distributions on that during that time period. But yeah, you have to be, you have to be bought in for the short to midterm.   Michael: Okay. And you mentioned that there's no liability with regard to being a limited partner and LP. So I just want to highlight that for folks. So if I invest or someone invest with the passive investment through syndication, I can't get sued as an owner if there's a big, big lawsuit.   Andrew: That's exactly right. That's exactly right. So as an as a limited partner, you have no exposure to lawsuits, you have no exposure to any debt issues, if for some reason the sponsor was to be foreclosed on. So you're completely insulated. From those things.   Now, of course, all investments carry a measure of risk. And, and that I mean, it's just, it's what it has as risk just like any other investment does, from a liability perspective, versus active ownership in a single family asset where if your tenant takes a fall or doesn't like you or something like that, they can sue you. You're completely insulated from that type of liability.   Michael: That's great. Whenever I hear that type of thing I think about… Have you seen Arrested Development?   Andrew: Of course.   Michael: …and then when he says, you know, there's these limited liability companies, we should start a no liability company. The bah blah, blah, attorney, so good!   Andrew: blah, blah, blah, Blog.   Michael: That's it! So this is literally that it's perfect. It's a no life living company! Yeah, I love that.   Andrew: That's what I love. Our attorneys are slightly more competent than blah, blah, blah.   Michael: Right, right. I would, one would hope.   So, Andrew, talk to me about returns, because I think a lot of investors, especially in the direct ownership space, and even maybe in the REIT space can look and say, okay, stock market does about seven to 8%. Roughly, I know what my cash on cash return could be like in a direct ownership model and understand what the appreciation potential might be. I know you said, you know, potentially, maybe two acts on your money.   Talk to us a little bit about what those might look like. And some of your investments are a typical syndication investment.   Andrew: You bet you bet. So I'll give you kind of our typical returns profile. And I think, then I'll highlight one really important distinction in comparing direct single family ownership with investment and syndication.   So typical returns profile, basically, what you have is you have what's called the preferred return, which is what you receive during the whole period, some sponsors pay semiannual distributions, some pay quarterly distributions, we pay monthly distributions. We feel that's really, really important, because it's a way of ongoing communication about the performance of the asset. So every month, our investors get a monthly update, they get a monthly distribution. And then we also share the financials for every asset, they're invested with us and quarterly, so they can see exactly how that assets performing. So the exposure to the performance of the asset. So our typical returns in terms of cash flows during the whole period, are going to be anywhere from seven to 9%. So that's gonna be target. And then that's just what those monthly distributions would be right to say $100,000 investment 9%, 9000 divided by 12, you're getting 750 bucks a month.   Michael: That was really an example, so fast!   Andrew: I use that example once or twice. I'm no savant, you can ask another question. And I'll bust out my calculator.   You've got the upside, right. And so every single asset that we acquire, right, we're buying it at a good basis, and then we're executing a value add strategy on that asset. In some cases, that's purely operational, where we're just buying it where the current operator or in many cases, the developer has just, for whatever reason, leased the units up way under market rent, have not optimized expenses have not taken advantages, or not taken advantage of opportunities in the marketplace to maximize the revenues for that property. So oftentimes, just by coming in acquiring an asset at a good price and operating it well, we can achieve dramatic increases in value.   And the distinction one of the distinctions about investing in a multifamily asset with us or with another sponsor, versus investing as a single family assets is the values of commercial assets and multifamily assets are not determined by comps, they're determined by what's called the net operating income and the cap rate. And so we can vary with a great deal of certainty, know that for every dollar that we increase the income in that property, that's going to translate to an increase in value and an increase of exit price. And so when we're doing our calculation, say we buy an asset, at $8 million, that we can look five years down the road and say, Hey, we're gonna increase the net operating income of this asset by $1.5 million, or $2 million over the whole period. And then when we go to sell that asset, based on the cap rate, we know that we'll be able to sell it for 120 $130 million. And then obviously, the difference between those two things is the profits. And then we get to distribute those profits to our limited partners. And so you've got the cash flows during the whole period. You have the opportunity to take your initial investment and see really significant return. So what we target on the very, very low end is around a 15% internal rate of return, which is just another metric for annualized returns and on the high end 20% Plus, and on the deals that we have gone full cycle on the six deals that we have acquired, taken through their business plan and sold, we have averaged a net return to our investors of 27%. So very, very strong returns there.   Not to mention the depreciation so much of that income, as long as you have a competent CPA, much of that income is tax free. So I think the one important distinction to highlight there is when you are comparing us the returns on single family asset I get this question a lot. Well, I can go out and get 15% cash on cash returns and buying a single family or duplex. Why would I? Why would I not just do that?   Well, what you get in investing in multifamily real estate is scale. And I experienced this firsthand multiple times where I underwrote a deal. The cash on cash returns were fantastic. They were like 30% but then guess what? I had one tenant that quit paying rent, I one tenant that beat the place up and I'm in three months with no income, so you've got pro forma and then you've got reality. In multifamily asset when you've got 300 Plus units, we underwrite these deals. So 1050 Tene 20% of the tenants could move out which in the markets that we're investing in, and the quality of assets that we're buying is historically unprecedented, we would still be able to maintain distributions, maintain the integrity of the asset, and execute a strategy to turn that around and bring that bring that occupancy and value back up.   So I think that's a really important distinction. It's not an apples to apples comparison, because you with with the scale and the size of multifamily assets, you get that protection.   Michael: Yep, that makes so much sense. It makes so much sense.   I mean, and I think one other distinction that's important to make, too, is that a single operator, an individual operator, owning direct ownership, single family, homes, whatever it is, you could be really good at that. But there are like companies like yours, and others that are dedicated to profession that have teams professionals dedicated to making sure that thing goes well. And so a lone wolf are a part of a wolf pack.   Andrew: That's right! Hey, Oh, excellent. Excellent analogy.   Michael: Thank you! Now, there's other flights. Yeah, I gotta give myself profit.   Andrew: Perfect, really solid!   Michael: That's awesome!   Andrew, you said something that I kind of want to come back to. And you said, you can you execute your value add strategy, and you know, what you're able to increase the net operating income by, and you're pretty confident about what your exit cap rate is going to be? How do you determine that?   I mean, so many people are seeing cap rates change. And right now we're seeing them compressed, but people are talking about interest rates changing, so maybe they're gonna expand? How do you forecast cap rates? So far in advance?   Andrew: Yeah, yeah. No, that's, that's a very, very good question!   And so one of the things that we do is, you'll see, you'll see a lot of operators give a very, very specific set of returns like, this is going to be a 27% IRR with a 2.5x equity multiple. And my question is always how you know that? Because you don't know what interest rates are going to do. And you don't know what cap rates are going to do you know how markets going to perform. So what we do when we underwrite a deal, and when we do our when put together, offering memorandums for investors and walk them through the returns, is what you'll see is a range of cap rates.   And so we have best case scenario and kind of a worst case scenario. And part of the reason that we play in this space that we play in in terms of both the geographies that we purchase in as well as the asset types that we buy, is historically. They have had far less cap rate fluctuation and a down economic cycle, right. So I was just chatting with somebody yesterday, and it was like, man, this equities markets and interest rates are rising, and people are starting to get a little skittish, and I don't know what's gonna happen. Nobody knows what's gonna happen.   But what we've seen is that because we're investing in markets with strong fundamentals with double the national average and population growth, with a diversified base of strong employers, with favorable supply demand ratios, right. We're in markets that are under supplied for this type of product. What we see is those markets have the fundamentals to weather the storms better than like a tertiary market that's very dependent on one industry or one employer, or it's heavily dependent on a tourism. And then also because we invest in these higher quality assets, we have just a more income stable tenant base.   So this year, the average household income of the actual, the less C's, and in the asset that we acquired, was well over $90,000 a year. And so what that tells us is, yeah, which is crazy, right? Like, you'd think that'd be buying houses, but the single family housing market is crazy. So a lot of people just opting tickets direct. And, and so what that tells us right, and what that tells the market is that these assets are more stable, because you have more stable income. And so when you look at Cap rates, and you see our cap rates fluctuate across different asset classes, and the higher quality assets, you might enter down economic cycle, you might see a little bit of a like a dance, or I'm sorry, an up wave or a cap rate expansion and the back end of the compression, whereas maybe C and D class assets, you're gonna see 300 400 basis point cap rate expansion, and all that means is those assets lose significantly more value and take longer to recover.   And so the reason that we're in the space that we're in, it's a more conservative space, but it also is more risk adjusted for those events that happen, right, these cyclical economic events.   And so do we know what's going to happen? No, but we have really good historical data, and we're buying strong assets and good markets.   Michael: Yeah, that makes total sense. It makes total sense.   Going back to something you also said earlier about investing via attacks, responsible or tax conscious way via passive investments. I mean, well, how can people invest in these passive investments? Can they 1031 out of direct ownership and take the proceeds and put them into passive and what does that look like?   Andrew: Yeah, excellent, excellent question.   So, yes, and if you can 1031 into a passive investment, most sponsors are going to have a minimum. The reason for that is when you were 1030 wanting out of direct ownership into a syndication structure like ours, the structure becomes a little bit more complicated, you end up setting a tenant and setting up a tenant in common structure. And I've got all kinds of diagrams and explanations of this. But long story short, it becomes a bit more complex.   And so our group which is actually one of the more kind of favorable minimums. Generally, we're looking for a minimum of $1 million being exchanged in order to accommodate a 1031 exchange. But you've got other options. There's things like deferred sales trusts and Delaware statutory trust, but then you can also do what's called a lazy man's 1031 exchange.   Michael: Whoo, really the whole time!   Andrew: Yeah, see! Put this on the episode highlights, right.   So what that is, right is that is the reason people are wanting to execute a 1031 exchanges, they don't want to pay capital gains taxes. So if you invest your gains, and your proceeds from that sale strategically, in investments that have high degrees, or high amounts of depreciation, like opportunity's own funds, or just strong assets that are that the operator is going to do a cost segregation study is going to do some value add that you can write off, then you can get enough depreciation to largely offset or completely offset those gains without the constraint of the 1031. Because the 1031 is a beautiful thing.   But there's also a lot of constraints around that you've got your 45 day identification window, you've got 180 days to close. I've got to call, like an hour, like two hours with an investment group who's whose identification window ends on 129. And they're like: We, you know, we need something we need something identify, and we just don't have anything that we're closing on it. It's I think it's gonna fit their timeframe, unfortunately, so. So there's ways to mitigate or, or completely avoid those taxes without, I think 1030 ones amazing, but you have options outside of that, if you want to, if you want to reduce those capital gains taxes.   Michael: Interesting. I never heard about the laser intensity one. And that's a good point. Like if you have the gains, or it's give me the losses to offset the income or the game, you might not need to make yourself crazy. That's a good point.   Andrew, tell us, how should we be evaluating operators or sponsors? I mean, what should be on someone's BS detector? What you thought red flags when looking at potential deals, sponsors?   Andrew: Yeah, so excellent, excellent question.   I'd be happy to share a piece of content with the listeners. We actually have our red flags dock that we've prepared for investors to look out for. And the reason behind that is:   Dan, one of our managing partners, before he ever became an active operator, he was passively invested very, very heavily. So he's in I think, right now he's in 50, different sponsored real estate deals with like 16 or 17, different operators, I mean, very heavily invested, right. And so of course, develop some criteria about who he would and wouldn't invest with, and why. And we've just kind of turned that into a doc that investors can make up can add their due diligence process as they're evaluating different deals and sponsors.   But I think a couple of high level things are some principles for folks that are looking to get into this. Number one, the operator, or the who you're investing with, is as important if not more important than what you're investing in. Right.   And this space, there's a lot of opportunity in the space. And right now, there's a lot of capital in the markets, both in the institutional markets as well as individual markets, right, single family home, I was looking at the Case Shiller Index this morning, just got launched. Single family home prices have gone shoot, right, there's a lot of people with a lot of equity, whether they be financing, whether they're selling and looking to deploy it. And so anytime there's a lot of there's a lot of capital moving into a space. There's a lot of people that are going to want to step in and get their get their slice of that. And so I think you have a lot of folks that very well may be well intentioned, but don't have the operational experience, don't have the time. Most of there's a lot of folks that aren't full time that are doing this as a side hustle or something supplemental to their day job, and don't have the track record of the experience. And so I think really, when you're talking to different sponsors, I mean, any anybody's list you get on right, and set up a call with them, you can talk to somebody like me, like my team, with us or with any other sponsor, right?   And really knowing who they are, why are they qualified to operate a very, very expensive business. And that's what these are, these are businesses that just happen to have real estate attached to them. So operational experience is very, very important, track records are very, very important.   You want to know, hey, have they ever lost money? Have they ever done a capital call where they've gone back to their investors and asked for more money because they didn't underwrite the deal? Well, is their strategy dependent on a refi mid hold in order to make it work, which is risky because you don't know where interest rates are going to go? So there's questions there's that there's a handful of questions like that and like I said, I'd be happy to share them. But really, I think the key principles are who you're investing with, right?   This is so so so important because the end of the day, they're the ones operating that deal. And if you can, you can have a great operator that has, you know, a challenging deal. And because they have business experience, because they have maturity and wisdom, they can, they can turn that around. And you can have a crummy operator that gets a great deal and doesn't know how to operate. It doesn't know how to maximize the upside, cap the downside, and it can, it can perform far worse than it should. So I think that that's really, really what I would want to highlight there.   Michael: Okay, okay, that makes total sense.   And are most passive investments yet you need to be an accredited investor for are there passive investments that people can participate in without being an accredited investor?   Andrew: Yes, so totally depends. And just like a really quick kind of key educational piece.   Primarily, what you'll see here is two different structures. You have a 506 B, or Bravo, you have a 506 C or a Charlie five or six seeds are for accredited investors only.   An accredited investor… Just very quickly, is somebody that makes their filing individually $200,000 a year jointly with their spouse or significant other $300,000 a year. And or they have a net worth of $1 million, excluding any equity in their primary residence. So you've got to check one of those two boxes. There's a couple other nuances like if you're a registered securities professional, or if you're a key principal at a real estate firm or something like that, but those are the two primary distinction is the income and net worth. So there are a lot of opportunities there for accredited investors only. But there also are a lot of operators that do open up quite a number of opportunities for non-accredited investors. So with a little due diligence and research in the space, you can find opportunities on both sides.   Michael: Okay, awesome!   Andrew this was so enlightening. So good and fun.   Where can people reach out to you get in touch with you if you have questions for passive investing specifically, or want to reach out to you?   Andrew: Tick tock.   No, yeah, I know. No, I won't.   LinkedIn, that's primarily where you can find me social, like on the on the social channels. I'm pretty LinkedIn, just Andrew Davis or passiveinvesting.com. You'll find me or you can just shoot me a note Andrew at passiveinvesting.com.   And if your listeners want to send me a note, and I'd be just more than happy to kick them that that red flags document I mentioned that just kind of add to their due diligence checklist for betting operators.   Michael: Amazing. Thank you so much.   And any final words, thoughts, pieces of wisdom that folks should know about as they're considering passive investing?   Andrew: Hmm, good question.   Michael: Do it! Just do it.   Andrew: Just do it, just do it! I mean, I think that's a big part of it. Right? So I think for a lot of folks that we talked to, it's, they're new to the space, they like the idea of it right?   But anything, when you're doing it for the first time is going to feel a little bit uncomfortable or risky. So what I always tell people, right is, is you know, make a minimum investment, you know, find a syndication where you can put, I don't know 25k Right, and see how it goes. And the beautiful thing about real estate right is if you if you need to comfort your nerves, or calm your nerves if you're investing with a good sponsor, and a good market US real estate has performed very, very well since kind of the inception of the country. And so, of course, do your due diligence, you know, be educated on the process on the market on the sponsor, but I think it is a very wise place to diversify your portfolio.   Michael: Love it, love it. Awesome! Andrew, this was so much fun. Thank you again for coming on and hanging out with me. Really appreciate you and I'm sure we'll chat soon, man.   Andrew: I hope so. Thanks so much for having me on. I really enjoyed it.   Michael: You got it. Alright, thank you!   Already when that was our episode, a big big big thank you to Andrew. Thanks again for coming on. We definitely look forward to having him back to do some more deep dives into some really cool things that are going on a passiveinvesting.com. As always, if you'd like the episode, feel free to leave us a rating or review. They are super, super, super helpful for us can't overemphasize that enough. And as always looking forward for the next one. Happy investing

In this Real Estate News Brief for the week ending January 22nd, 2022… higher mortgage rates, home prices, and single-family rents.Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review.Economic NewsWe begin with economic news from this past week. The weekly unemployment report shows a surge in the number of applications. They were up 55,000 to a three-month high of 286,000. As MarketWatch reports, it's a sign that the current wave of covid cases is impacting businesses and triggering some layoffs. Economists say that some layoffs may also be due to the end of the holiday season. (1) On the home-building front, December was a busy month for construction activity. The U.S. Census Bureau says home starts were up 1% compared to November, and 2.5% compared to the previous December. Permits were also up, by a lot. They were up 9% in December but much of the increase happened in the Northeast as builders rushed to get permits before new rules kicked in. Most of the permits were for multi-family projects. Single-family permits were only up 2%. (2)Builders are not very happy about ongoing challenges like inflation and supply-chain disruptions. Rising mortgage rates and home prices are also a concern, along with the labor shortage. The National Association of Home Builders says its builder confidence index dropped slightly. (3)Existing home sales were down last month. The National Association of Realtors says they dropped 4.6% between November and December. That's mostly due to inventory levels which NAR says were at their lowest level ever. The Association says while sales dropped nearly 5%, inventory was down 18%. (4)Mortgage RatesMortgage rates moved higher again last week. Freddie Mac says the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose 11 basis points to 3.56%. The 15-year rose 17 basis points to 2.79%. Mortgage rates are moving higher as Treasury yields rise and the Federal Reserve works on a plan to fight inflation. (5) On a positive note, lenders have loosened their purse strings and made funds more available for house hunters. The MBA'S Mortgage Credit Availability Index rose in December to its highest level since May of 2021. But, it's still down 30% from pre-pandemic levels. (6) In other news making headlines...Existing vs. New Home Price GrowthExisting home prices rose more than new home prices in 2021. But CoreLogic research shows price growth for new homes rose more over the last decade. (7)The report offers an important perspective on home price growth by differentiating between two methods for calculating that growth. One method is from Case-Shiller which compares the latest sales price to the previous sales price. The other method is the tracking of the median price.It points out that the median price can show trends but can also be skewed by the sale of homes at different price levels. For example, if 90% of the homes in one area are entry level homes, but 10% are luxury homes at double the price, the median will be skewed higher for all the homes. CoreLogic says the Case-Shiller method is more accurate because it compares current sales data to previous sales data, but it also has one big flaw. It can't determine new home price growth which accounts for 10% of all sales, because there are no previous sales.It took a deeper dive into home price growth by combining the Case-Shiller Index for existing homes and a different metric for new homes which includes data for structural details of the homes and their locations. It concluded that appreciation has been about the same for both categories over the last year, although existing home price growth was slightly higher. It was up 19.8% compared to 16.6% for new homes.Over the last ten years, new home prices rose the most. They were up 127.9% compared to 93.2% for existing homes.Record Growth for Single-Family RentsCoreLogic also released the latest report on rent growth for single-family homes. It shows that rent growth was up 11.5% in November as demand soars. That's a new year-over-year record. It says that annual rent growth has doubled in some locations in just the last several months. In some areas, rents have tripled. (8)Miami has seen the highest rate of increase at 33%. Phoenix was second at 19.4%. Las Vegas was third, at 16.7%. A few of the rental markets that we track include Orlando with an increase of 15.9%, Dallas with an increase of 14.8%, and Atlanta with an increase 14.8%. Charlotte is also on the top 20 list with a year-over-year increase of 12.2%. You can see the entire list by following a link in the show notes at newsforinvestors.com. That's it for today. Please remember to hit the subscribe button, and leave a review!You can also join RealWealth for free at newsforinvestors.com. As a member, you have access to the Investor Portal where you can view sample property pro-formas and connect with our network of resources, including experienced investment counselors, property teams, lenders, 1031 exchange facilitators, attorneys, CPAs and more.Thanks for listening. I'm Kathy Fettke.Links:1 -https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-jobless-claims-jump-55-000-to-three-month-high-of-286-000-as-omicron-bites-11642685869?mod=economic-report2 -https://www.marketwatch.com/story/coming-up-u-s-housing-starts-report-for-december-11642598355?mod=economic-report3 -https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-home-builders-less-optimistic-due-to-high-inflation-and-supply-woes-11642518358?mod=economy-politics4 -https://www.marketwatch.com/story/coming-up-u-s-existing-home-sales-11642690518?mod=economic-report5 -http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/6 -https://magazine.realtor/daily-news/2022/01/18/buyers-may-find-opening-with-mortgage-credit7 -https://www.corelogic.com/intelligence/which-increased-more-new-or-existing-home-prices/8 - https://magazine.realtor/daily-news/2022/01/19/single-family-rents-post-record-growth

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are the leading measures of U.S. residential real estate prices, tracking changes in the value of residential real estate nationally. For a list of additional indices, please refer to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index Methodology.More Info: https://moneystrategieswithdebbie.com/

Biogen's new Alzheimer's Disease drug is being hailed as a medical breakthrough. But could its $56,000 per year price tag be too much for Medicare to handle? We'll debate. Plus, home prices just posted their biggest gain in the history of the Case-Shiller Index, up 15% in April. Can the hot housing market keep rolling? And are investors actually driving up prices? We'll ask Coldwell Banker's CEO. And, record gun sales are leading to an ammunition shortage across America. Can the manufacturers catch up to demand? We'll explore.

Here's how home values have been appreciating despite high unemployment. How is it that prices continue to shoot up while unemployment hovers around 7%? The Case-Shiller Index, which tracks homes, announced that September 2020 had the highest level of appreciation for a single month in the last 20 years—that means it was higher than the run-up of 2012 and 2013 and the run-up of 2005 and 2006! A lot of this has to do with the historically low interest rates fueling demand while inventory remains scarce.  Here's what that data means on a practical level: If you're considering selling in the next six months, we should be meeting now to strategize so we can maximize your home value with these incredibly favorable market conditions.  At 1:30 in the video above, you'll see a graph that displays the unemployment numbers for that record-setting September. Note that the highest figures are bunched up toward the right of the graph, representing service industries such as leisure, transportation, and restaurants that have all been devastated by the COVID-19 lockdowns. Workers in this sector of the economy are struggling to make ends meet on a month-to-month basis, and many are being laid off. “In September 2020, we witnessed the highest single-month appreciation in 20 years.” Toward the left side of the graph, though, you'll find the professional and business sector of our economy, as well as the financial and construction sectors; relatively speaking, COVID has had very little impact on the overall health of these sectors, as many workers therein were able to transition to working from home and spring losses were able to be recouped. As service industries suffer, workers in a multitude of other industries are enjoying job stability and being incentivized by historically low rates to make a move in the market sooner than later; their purchasing power has never been stronger. For serious sellers, listing your home now to capture this demand should be a no-brainer; depending on the specific neighborhood, we're witnessing 10% to even 20% appreciation in the San Fernando Valley. A top-dollar sale has never been more achievable. If you have further questions about this or any other real estate topic, just give me a call or send me an email. I'd love to learn more about your situation and find out how I can be of assistance. I look forward to hearing from you soon in this new year!

Jason Hartman shares a sigh of relief; no matter who wins the presidential election, there is always a strategy in real estate, the most favorable asset-class in the world. Adam joins the show for a short, jovial debate on election fraud and the election. But Jason and Adam offer you a break from politics to discuss many concerns of a housing bubble and how this could be misinterpreted.  Key Takeaways: [1:45] Before we talk about investment property, let's discuss the 2020 election update.  [4:10] What do you think about voter fraud as a possibility?  [12:30] Is there a possible housing bubble? [14:20] 75% of the Case-Shiller Index is based on cyclical markets, a gross misrepresentation of the complex US housing markets.  [19:45] Are we just a bunch of PermaBulls? [22:00] Market timing is a fool's game.  Websites: jasonhartman.com/protect JasonHartman.com JasonHartman.com/properties Jason Hartman Quick Start Jason Hartman PropertyCast (Libsyn) Jason Hartman PropertyCast (iTunes) 1-800-HARTMAN

Jason Hartman shares a sigh of relief; no matter who wins the presidential election, there is always a strategy in real estate, the most favorable asset-class in the world. Adam joins the show for a short, jovial debate on election fraud and the election. But Jason and Adam offer you a break from politics to discuss many concerns of a housing bubble and how this could be misinterpreted.  Key Takeaways: [4:00] No matter who wins the presidential election, there is always a real estate strategy. [9:00] Will we see another republican when the popular vote? [9:45] IDEAL [10:45] Before we talk about investment property, let's discuss the 2020 election update.  [13:10] What do you think about voter fraud as a possibility?  [21:30] Is there a possible housing bubble? [25:20] 75% of the Case-Shiller Index is based on cyclical markets, a gross misrepresentation of the complex US housing markets.  [28:45] Are we just a bunch of PermaBulls? [31:00] Market timing is a fool's game.  Websites: jasonhartman.com/protect JasonHartman.com JasonHartman.com/properties Jason Hartman Quick Start Jason Hartman PropertyCast (Libsyn) Jason Hartman PropertyCast (iTunes) 1-800-HARTMAN

Why can the Case-Shiller Index not always be trusted, especially if you are an investor? Jason Hartman reiterates the importance of understanding the diversity and truth to the term “local market.”  “Every problem boils down to the money,” says Mark Moss. Mark Moss talks with Jason Hartman about his feelings on bitcoin and why it might be the most favorable currency, even over the dollar. This talk includes a quick history lesson sharing one aspect of currency evolution. As well, what will happen when the stimulus ends? Key Takeaways: [1:20] The most widely quoted real estate index, the Case-Shiller index, doesn’t tell you enough information.  [4:20] Of the Case-Shiller composite 20 index, about 75% is a cyclical market.  [9:50] Massive money flowing into the economy, 1.1 trillion dollars is what lenders did in home loans between April and June, according to Black Knight. [13:20] 3.5 million home loans were in forbearance as of September 6, according to the MBA. Mark Moss [16:30] Mark speaks about market misconceptions. [17:30] The markets; stock, real estate, gold, etc., have become disconnected.  [19:00] What happens when the stimulus ends? [21:30] How will this change cryptocurrency, like bitcoin?  [24:15] What makes bitcoin superior to gold or the dollar? [25:45] A history lesson on African cowrie/aggry beads. [27:40] “If the people understood the banking system, there would be a revolution overnight.” Henry Ford Websites: Mark Moss on Youtube JasonHartman.com/Ask JasonHartman.com/Start JasonHartman.com/Recordings JasonHartman.com/Asset JasonHartman.com/Webinar JasonHartman.com JasonHartman.com/properties Jason Hartman Quick Start Jason Hartman PropertyCast (Libsyn) Jason Hartman PropertyCast (iTunes) 1-800-HARTMAN

Today Jason Hartman and Adam answer a listener question about Inflation Induced Debt Destruction, discuss the latest economic numbers that impact the housing market and why requiring things like affordable housing is a destructive practice for governments. Then Adam sits down with Joe the Lender for the February Mortgage Minute. Key Takeaways: [6:21] Companies make a LOT of money off unredeemed items [9:28] Listener Question: Seneca's question about Inflation Induced Debt Destruction [17:05] The latest Consumer Confidence, Case-Shiller Index and New Home Sales numbers [20:20] California is suing Huntington Beach for not having enough affordable housing [24:26] February Mortgage Minute [29:23] Mortgage starts for Joe were a little flat toward the end of the year but have been getting better this month Website: www.JasonHartman.com/Ask www.JasonHartman.com/Masters Jason Hartman's Alexa Flash Briefing Skill The PropertyCast

Kevin takes this episode to discuss macroeconomic trends that, when paid attention to, can provide valuable insight in the market. Macroeconomic issues covered include statistics such as the unemployment rate, types of jobs available, and data on population growth and shrinkage. Abhi and Kevin then discuss which tools a real estate investor can use to track these trends. One of these tools is the Case-Shiller Index, or as Kevin refers to it, “The Gold Standard.” Stay up to date on all the latest news and trends at ThinkRealty.com. Then scroll down to the bottom of the page to sign up for the weekly newsletter—it’s free! The Power Play: Greg and Abhi get into the topic of affordability in today’s market. Greg rails against the idea that loan standards should be lowered to allow people to buy homes with “fake buying power.” Instead, he believes the housing market will correct itself on its own when no one buys the overpriced homes, forcing sellers to lower the price. According to Greg, if loan standards were to be lowered again, it would be a “Groundhog Day of stupidity.”

Kevin takes this episode to discuss macroeconomic trends that, when paid attention to, can provide valuable insight in the market. Macroeconomic issues covered include statistics such as the unemployment rate, types of jobs available, and data on population growth and shrinkage. Abhi and Kevin then discuss which tools a real estate investor can use to track these trends. One of these tools is the Case-Shiller Index, or as Kevin refers to it, “The Gold Standard.” Stay up to date on all the latest news and trends at ThinkRealty.com. Then scroll down to the bottom of the page to sign up for the weekly newsletter—it’s free! The Power Play: Greg and Abhi get into the topic of affordability in today’s market. Greg rails against the idea that loan standards should be lowered to allow people to buy homes with “fake buying power.” Instead, he believes the housing market will correct itself on its own when no one buys the overpriced homes, forcing sellers to lower the price. According to Greg, if loan standards were to be lowered again, it would be a “Groundhog Day of stupidity.”

Bubbles abound in the world of investing, and today is no different. Jason welcomes Harry Dent, author of The Sale of a Lifetime, about what's going on today in the stock market, real estate market, political world, and worldwide economic statuses. Harry points out what nation in Europe that reminds him of Japan before their massive downturn, and gives Jason a rundown of what to look for BEFORE you see a bubble burst. The two look at what you might actually want to be investing in when the bubble bursts. Key Takeaways: [4:47] The massive bubble that is Chinese real estate [12:51] Why Harry studies 80-250 year cycles when the world is rapidly changing today [15:36] Examining the Trump rally [24:07] Why Jason hates the Case Shiller Index [28:19] The phases of a housing crash Website: www.HarryDent.com

Bubbles abound in the world of investing, and today is no different. Jason welcomes Harry Dent, author of The Sale of a Lifetime, about what's going on today in the stock market, real estate market, political world, and worldwide economic statuses. Harry points out what nation in Europe that reminds him of Japan before their massive downturn, and gives Jason a rundown of what to look for BEFORE you see a bubble burst. The two look at what you might actually want to be investing in when the bubble bursts. Key Takeaways: [4:42] The massive bubble that is Chinese real estate [12:46] Why Harry studies 80-250 year cycles when the world is rapidly changing today [15:31] Examining the Trump rally [24:02] Why Jason hates the Case Shiller Index [28:14] The phases of a housing crash Website: www.HarryDent.com

I wanted to stop by with an update on the San Diego market so far in 2017 and also let you know about some upcoming events that we'd love to see you at.Looking to sell your San Diego home? Get a free home value reportLooking to buy a San Diego home? Click here for full MLS accessLooking back, we can see that 2016 was a great year for the San Diego real estate market. We led the nation several times in appreciation in the Case-Shiller Index, but the early numbers for 2017 show that some other metropolitan areas are taking the lead. San Diego has actually fallen to 14th on that list. The San Diego market is still appreciating, but not as much as some of those other markets.After about 6% or 7% appreciation in 2016, some predict we'll see that slow a little bit. This is probably because many areas in San Diego have already surpassed their all-time highs in values. You may have even experienced how homes are flying off the shelves.We've seen a lot of activity this quarter, likely due to interest rates rising, causing people to jump off the fence and lock in a rate while they're low. This year, we expect a lot of early appreciation to take place in the first part of the year; April and May have typically been our market's busiest months.As for inventory, we're at just under 5,000 homes on the market for San Diego County. As interest rates continue to fuel activity, upward pressure on prices will be fueled too until something dramatic happens that could change inventory levels.“Interest rates are causing people to jump off the fence and buy a home to lock in a low rate. ”There are a few other events here in San Diego coming up that I wanted to tell you about. The first is The Taste of Morena on April 26th from 5 p.m. to 9 p.m. Here at our office at 4112 Napier Street, we're holding an open house as one of the sponsors. We're also selling tickets, so if you need tickets, you can get them from us for $25 apiece. There will be 23 different restaurant and bar stops where you'll get free samples from.It's going to be a fun night, and we'll also have some drawings, drinks, and giveaways at our office as well. We'd love for you to join us.On May 6th, we're also sponsoring the 21st Clairemont Garden Tour at 2151 Burgener Street. We'll have a booth there, and there will be a food truck nearby as well. It's a great opportunity to walk through and get some great ideas and inspiration for landscaping. We hope to see you there as well!As always, give us a call or send us an email with any questions you have. We're happy to help.

"Rob Black & Your Money" - Radio Show November 29 - KDOW 1220 AM (7a-9a) Rob Black talks about the profit taking stock market, the Standard & Poor's Case–Shiller Index, Reno, Chief Market Analyst Patrick O'Hare of Briefing.com, & more.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

There's a nostalgic feeling to today's Creating Wealth Show as Jason Hartman provides a live recording from the 2014 Meet the Masters event in Orange County, California. This gives listeners a taste of what they can expect from the January 2015 event in Irvine, California, and also provides a good opportunity to see how far the financial and real estate worlds have come over the past months. Key topics covered include the Case-Shiller index, reassessing Rent-to-Value ratios and the development of bitcoin.   Key Takeaways 04.30 – Jason Hartman's investment strategy doesn't focus on appreciation – if it happens, it's a bonus. 07.45 – Bitcoin and its competing alternative cyber currencies really came about because people are starting to doubt the fiat money Central Banking model that we've become accustomed to. 10.50 – Despite being the most commonly used index, Jason Hartman would only recommend 6 of the 20 markets proposed by the Case-Shiller index. 14.08 – As humans, we find it inherently difficult to know when to cut losses and just walk away. 15.50 – Niall Ferguson claims that the most powerful part of the financial system is the bond market, and we would all do well to remember that. 20.09 – Real estate is not a very liquid market and so even when prices drop, they don't drop as quickly as most other asset classes. 26.18 – Rent-to-value ratios change totally if you think about the actual utility cost per month – how much is your renter paying to use your property, and how does that compare with what you think the value is? 31.23 – The forms and uses of money have changed many times throughout history, and now we're dealing with the technological side of currency, which has led us to bitcoin. 39.50 – Jason Hartman goes through step-by-step considering the relative merits and failings of the dollar, bitcoin, gold and income property.   Mentioned in this episode The Ascent of Money by Niall Ferguson  

And you might want to cross San Francisco off the list, too. In the past 30 years, the most expensive metro areas in the U.S. have seen their housing prices grow at a much faster pace than the least expensive markets, according to a new report out from Trulia. That rapid increase has caused certain areas - especially New York's long-envied Manhattan borough - to be closed off to not only the successful and wealthy, but those that were also raised by the successful and wealthy. Kate Smith and Dan Moss talk to one half of the Case-Shiller Index and the authority on housing prices, Robert Shiller, on what's driving the prices up and whether New York real estate is all it's cracked up to be.

Robert Shiller (as in Case-Shiller Index) was reported by CNBC to say that he thinks stocks are a better investment than real estate over the long haul. Really? So in this episode we dig into the argument about which is better...stocks or real estate? Some might say we're shills for real estate, but we'll find out who's the bigger shiller here... We debate.  You decide.  Then we can all go have a pint.   The Real Estate Guys™ radio show provides real estate investing news, education, training and resources to help real estate investors succeed.  Learn more and subscribe to the free newsletter! Visit www.realestateguysradio.com. 

There's a nostalgic feeling to today's Creating Wealth Show as Jason Hartman provides a live recording from the 2014 Meet the Masters event in Orange County, California. This gives listeners a taste of what they can expect from the January 2015 event in Irvine, California, and also provides a good opportunity to see how far the financial and real estate worlds have come over the past months. Key topics covered include the Case-Shiller index, reassessing Rent-to-Value ratios and the development of bitcoin.   Key Takeaways 04.30 – Jason Hartman's investment strategy doesn't focus on appreciation – if it happens, it's a bonus. 07.45 – Bitcoin and its competing alternative cyber currencies really came about because people are starting to doubt the fiat money Central Banking model that we've become accustomed to. 10.50 – Despite being the most commonly used index, Jason Hartman would only recommend 6 of the 20 markets proposed by the Case-Shiller index.  14.08 – As humans, we find it inherently difficult to know when to cut losses and just walk away. 15.50 – Niall Ferguson claims that the most powerful part of the financial system is the bond market, and we would all do well to remember that. 20.09 – Real estate is not a very liquid market and so even when prices drop, they don't drop as quickly as most other asset classes. 26.18 – Rent-to-value ratios change totally if you think about the actual utility cost per month – how much is your renter paying to use your property, and how does that compare with what you think the value is? 31.23 – The forms and uses of money have changed many times throughout history, and now we're dealing with the technological side of currency, which has led us to bitcoin. 39.50 – Jason Hartman goes through step-by-step considering the relative merits and failings of the dollar, bitcoin, gold and income property.   Mentioned in this episode   The Ascent of Money by Niall Ferguson

- Dr. Robert Shiller, Professor of Economics at Yale University discusses the latest Case/Shiller Index and the housing market - Please call 1-800-388-9700 for a free review of your financial portfolio

Dr. Robert Shiller, Professor of Economics at Yale University and co-creator of the S&P Case/Shiller Index-The rise in house prices show that we are on a slow upward climb but the housing market is not yet out of the woods.