The Vancouver Life Real Estate Podcast

Since the 1980s, Canadian real estate prices have increased 700% faster than wages, and the consequences of that imbalance are starting to surface across the country. In this episode, we unpack a dramatic shift in the housing market that could signal the end of a four-decade bull run. We begin with new data showing that real wages have barely moved in 43 years—up just 24%—while real estate values, even after recent declines, are still up over 160% after inflation. That divergence has fuelled inequality, made homeownership feel unattainable for younger generations, and created what some economists are now calling a return to neo-feudalism—where wealth and housing access are increasingly concentrated among the few.We also explore the Bank of Canada's recent messaging, where the odds of a rate cut in July have fallen to just 25%, with markets now pricing in only one more cut for the rest of 2025. That would leave mortgage rates not far from where they are today, providing little relief for buyers. Meanwhile, the condo pre-sale market is collapsing, especially in Toronto, where there is now over 58 months of inventory—meaning it could take until 2030 to absorb what's already built. As sales disappear, so too do new condo starts, and building permits in April dropped by 14.6% year-over-year, led by a 20.5% decline in multi-family construction, with Vancouver alone accounting for nearly $1 billion of the pullback.On the employment front, Canada's job market is flashing warning signs. The national unemployment rate rose to 7% in May, the highest in nearly a decade outside of the pandemic. Ontario hit 7.9% and Toronto 9%, with youth unemployment hitting a staggering 20.1%—the worst since the 1990s. As hiring stalls and cost pressures mount, many students and recent grads are being locked out of the workforce entirely, casting a long shadow over household formation and future housing demand. This is a leading indicator of broader economic weakness and a key reason why the housing market could be facing deeper structural problems ahead.Finally, while average rents in Canada have now fallen for eight consecutive months year-over-year, they remain 12.6% higher than just three years ago. That's a partial win for tenants, but another blow to investors who are already grappling with declining condo values and stagnant prices. Sales volumes are flat month-over-month and prices remain stable, but beneath the surface, Canada's housing fundamentals are shifting fast.This episode connects the dots between affordability, generational inequality, interest rates, and a rapidly softening condo sector. If you're a buyer, seller, investor, or simply trying to understand where Canadian real estate is headed next—this is the update you can't afford to miss. _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

Sales volumes have collapsed across Canada, and Vancouver is no exception. May 2025 saw just 2,228 sales—down 18.5% from an already slow May last year, and a staggering 30.5% below the 10-year average. This marks the slowest May on record in over 20 years, highlighting just how extreme the slowdown has become. In the pre-sale market, the picture is even bleaker. Vancouver saw only 816 new condo sales in the first quarter of 2025, an 84% drop from the 5,250 sold during the same period in 2022. Meanwhile, in the Greater Toronto Area, April 2025 recorded only 310 new home sales, a shocking 72% drop from the same time last year and an astonishing 89% below the 10-year average—this is the worst April on record for new home sales in the GTA.In the resale market, the GTA is facing a flood of new listings, with active inventory reaching 30,964 in May—a 41.5% jump year-over-year and levels not seen since the 1995 housing downturn that led to decades of price stagnation. New listings surged 14% compared to May 2024, totaling 21,819—the second-busiest May on record. However, with sales unable to keep pace, the sales-to-new-listings ratio plummeted to just 28%, firmly in buyers' territory, where prices typically face downward pressure. Interestingly, despite the surge in inventory, prices in Toronto edged up 0.3% month-over-month to $1,012,800, though they remain 4.5% below last year's levels. Whether this is a sign of a bottom or just a temporary pause in the broader correction remains to be seen.Adding to the uncertainty, the Bank of Canada held its overnight rate steady at 2.75% for the second consecutive meeting, despite core inflation still hovering above 3% on a three-month annualized basis. This decision reflects concerns about slower growth and sticky inflation, which have been exacerbated by trade tensions and tariffs that threaten to prolong a period of stagflation—where growth slows but prices continue to rise. The high cost of borrowing continues to weigh on buyer sentiment and affordability, contributing to the ongoing collapse in sales.In Vancouver, the market is grappling with both a surge in listings and persistently low sales. New listings in May reached 6,640, 4% higher than May 2024 and 9% above the 10-year average, though slightly down from April 2025's peak. Despite this influx of supply, active inventory soared to 16,535—up 26% from a year ago and a massive 46% above the 10-year average—marking an 11-year high for the month. This has given buyers their most extensive selection since July 2014, yet sales volumes remain extremely low, highlighting a deep disconnect between supply and demand. The sales-to-active ratio sits at a meager 14%, indicating a market leaning towards buyers' territory. While the composite Home Price Index (HPI) dipped $7,000 (0.6%) month-over-month to $1,177,100, the median price surprisingly rose for the fourth consecutive month to $985,000, the highest reading this year—suggesting that while high-priced homes might still be selling, the overall market remains fragile. Sellers, especially those receiving offers, need to treat them seriously in this climate, as buyer hesitancy is at a peak. _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

This week in Canadian real estate, we saw a rare move toward improving housing affordability—but is it too little, too late?The federal government has announced a GST rebate for first-time home buyers purchasing new homes valued up to $1.5 million. Homes under $1 million will be eligible for a full GST rebate—as much as $50,000—while homes between $1 million and $1.5 million receive a partial rebate. The government claims this will help reduce upfront costs for young Canadians and spur new housing construction. But when you consider that only 10–20% of Canada's roughly 300,000 annual first-time buyers purchase new homes, this measure will actually benefit just 30,000 to 60,000 people nationwide. A step in the right direction? Yes. A scalable solution to affordability? Probably not.And while tax relief is welcome, the bigger issue continues to loom: the soaring cost of construction. Since 2017, Canada's Building Construction Price Index has jumped 90%, nearly doubling costs in just eight years—largely driven by pandemic-era supply chain shocks and inflation. This means even with incentives, developers are unlikely to hit federal housing targets, and pre-sale markets will remain fragile as margins thin and feasibility erodes.We also take a deep dive into Canada's residential mortgage debt, which now totals over $2.42 trillion—including $2.07 trillion in mortgages and $350 billion in HELOCs. That's nearly $370,000 in average mortgage debt across the 6.5 million homes with outstanding loans. With an average amortization of 20 years and today's fixed rates around 4.14%, the average monthly mortgage payment comes in at $2,256. That's barely more than Canada's average rent of $2,109, showing how thin the line between renting and owning has become for many households.Meanwhile in the U.S., delinquency rates on car loans have hit record highs—over 6.5% of borrowers are now more than 60 days behind. It's a stark indicator of mounting financial stress, and one that could spill over into the broader economy, potentially triggering interest rate cuts and even recessionary pressure stateside. A U.S. slowdown almost always influences Canada, especially when it comes to monetary policy.We also zoom out and look at G7 home price trends, and the results are jaw-dropping. Since 1985, Canada leads the G7 in inflation-adjusted home price appreciation—up 360%. That's even after an 18% national correction from peak pricing. For comparison, the UK is up 340%, the U.S. 220%, while Japan's prices have actually fallen 30%. The data paints a picture of just how extreme Canada's housing market has become over time—and how hard it may be to “normalize.”And finally, we preview next week's Bank of Canada interest rate decision. As of May 26th, odds are now sitting at 70% that there will be no cut, despite growing calls for relief. With inflation data holding steady and economic signals mixed, the BoC remains cautious.In our mini market update: Vancouver has just crossed 18,000 active listings—the most in 12 years—while May sales are on track to be the lowest ever recorded for the month, even as prices spike. Median prices are now within 1% of all-time highs, and average prices are up over $50,000 in just 30 days. It's a paradoxical moment: high supply, low sales, rising prices. Welcome to 2025. _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

Affordable housing continues to dominate the national conversation—and yet, no level of government seems to have cracked the code. In today's episode of The Vancouver Life, we're taking this issue into our own hands. Following our most-commented video ever, where we introduced a series of bold ideas to bring truly affordable, ownership-based housing to Canadians, we're back with more. Many responded with sharp criticism, valid points, and even better ideas. It inspired us to expand on the original concept, now tentatively called The Dan Plan, and crowdsource even more solutions from our community. With over 10,000 viewers tuning in weekly, if even 1% of you contribute, that's 100 new ideas we can compile into a living document—and present directly to government contacts with the goal of influencing real policy change.The 'Dan Plan' includes removing development cost charges and developer profit margins by having government step in as the builder, offering 0% interest construction loans, and fast-tracking approvals. For buyers, it proposes radical affordability measures: zero down payment, no GST, no property transfer tax, and even no annual property tax for qualifying homes. These changes, if implemented, would reduce the barrier to homeownership by a huge amount—immediately. This isn't about building a few thousand affordable rentals years from now. This is about creating affordable homes people can own and build wealth with today. And while the plan isn't perfect, it's meant to start a conversation—and we want you to be part of it. Share your ideas in the comments, and we'll refine and present the best of them to government officials.In addition to the affordability push, we highlight a rare real estate opportunity happening right now in Surrey. The Belvedere, a just-completed concrete high-rise, is offering homes at 25% below their original list price. Despite showing “sold out” online, approximately 70 units are being released under this promotion, with prices starting at $721 per square foot. Appraisals are reportedly coming in $90,000 higher than the discounted prices, making this one of the most compelling condo deals in the Lower Mainland. Financing is expected to be smoother with these valuations, and we anticipate a swift sell-out. To learn more or get access, visit condoday.ca or reach out to us directly.We also unpack a massive week in Canadian real estate data. Housing starts jumped 30% in April to 279,000 annualized units—the strongest print since June 2023—but nearly all of that growth came from purpose-built rentals. Condo and single-family home starts, by contrast, have fallen to decade lows. This unusual dynamic points to a likely plateau in rent prices and suggests that condo values may face future headwinds due to increased supply and moderating rents.Whether you're passionate about housing affordability, curious about the current market landscape, or just looking for a rare real estate deal, this episode delivers insight and opportunity. And if you believe Canadians deserve affordable homes they can own, now is the time to raise your voice. Drop your ideas in the comments—we're listening, compiling, and taking action. _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

The average home price in Canada has officially dropped 18% since the 2022 peak—but that's only half the story.In this week's episode, we unpack April 2025's national real estate data, and explore a far more revealing trend: What prices looked like 5 years ago versus today. Because while home values are down nearly 20% from peak levels, they're still up 31% over 5 years.We also take a closer look at the man now in charge of Canadian housing—former Vancouver Mayor Gregor Robertson, newly appointed as Canada's Housing Minister. His stance? Home prices don't need to go down—instead, he's promising more supply and more affordability. But how do you make homes more affordable without lowering their price?It's a nearly impossible challenge—and we'll explain why it may never happen, especially when the majority of voters, politicians, and Canada's wealthiest citizens are all homeowners with a vested interest in protecting property values. Trudeau said it last year, and Robertson is echoing the sentiment again today: “Housing needs to retain its value.”We'll show you a possible model for government-built housing at cost—no developer profit, reduced DCCs, and resell restrictions to inflation-only increases—but question if that kind of execution is realistic in today's bureaucratic system.Meanwhile, the labour market is softening. Canada's unemployment rate climbed to 6.9%, the highest in 8 years outside of COVID. BC saw a slight increase to 6.2%, even as job creation remained steady. Wage growth continues, but a weakening economy and global trade volatility (especially with the US tariffs) may push the Bank of Canada toward another rate cut.The presale market continues to unravel. Boffo Developments just cancelled their 1,200-unit Burnaby project “Bassano” after selling only 44 of the first 318 units in 6 months. They've returned deposits and hit pause—indefinitely. Even Vancouver's largest presale marketing firm, Rennie, has laid off 25% of staff, with insiders predicting the market won't stabilize for at least two more years.On the rental side, Toronto saw its first uptick in rents in over a year, with 1-bed unfurnished units rising $22 to $2,148/month in May. But that's still well below last year's levels. Alberta rents are sliding too, with Calgary down 7% and Edmonton down 6% in the past 6 months.Lastly, let's talk about the Renewal Cliff Myth. The Bank of Canada's latest Financial Stability Report shows that rising mortgage payments won't be nearly as painful as expected. Thanks to moderating rate expectations, payment increases on renewal will be 4–5 points lower than forecast—which means a much softer landing for borrowers than many feared.So, are we at the bottom of the market? The CREA's national data shows home sales in April were virtually flat month-over-month, suggesting the 2025 sales slump may be stabilizing. But prices in BC and Ontario—Canada's two biggest markets—continue to drag the national average down. And until there's a true shift in supply, policy, or buyer confidence, expect more of the same in the months ahead.Drop your thoughts in the comments—Is this the bottom? Will the new Housing Minister make a difference? Or is Canada's real estate market in for more pain ahead? _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

For the first time in 2025, Vancouver home prices have declined—and combined with multi-year lows in sales activity, have we finally reached the bottom of this market cycle?In this week's episode, we dive into the May market update for Vancouver, examining why—after four consecutive years of declining home sales—we may be approaching a cyclical turning point. Vancouver just posted its lowest April sales figures since 2019, and for context, this is now the longest recorded slowdown in the GVRD since 2005. But what's fascinating is that some early signs of life are emerging in other major Canadian markets—especially Toronto. TRREB reported a modest 1.8% increase in sales in April, breaking a brutal two-month, 27% drop. Is this a blip, or the beginning of the stabilization phase?We break down affordability and consumer confidence, two key drivers of real estate cycles. With mortgage payments on a typical home now at $2,600—the lowest since May 2022—affordability is quietly improving. And with consumer sentiment indexes showing their first significant jump in over a year, buyer psychology could be shifting. Should the Bank of Canada cut rates in June, as markets are pricing in, it could bring payments back to 2022 levels—when sales volumes were 52% higher.We then turn to Toronto, where the situation is more extreme. GTA sales remain 21% lower year-over-year, with condo sales down a staggering 30%—the lowest sales figures seen in 25 years (excluding COVID lockdowns). Inventory is ballooning, up 51% overall and 83% for condos in the 416. And prices across all asset types have dropped: condos are down 6.8%, detached homes 5.4%. Meanwhile, the rental market is under pressure too. With 16,000 rental listings, GTA rental inventory is at an all-time high. Rents are now 13% below peak levels, and investor demand has fallen off a cliff. But with prices and rates declining faster than rents, even cash flow metrics are beginning to improve—though we're still far from equilibrium.We then circle back to Vancouver. Despite the sales slowdown, condos have shown surprising resilience—both in sales and price. Condo transactions are down just 56% from peak levels (compared to 71% for detached homes) and prices have only slipped 2% from their highs,  outperforming detached and townhouse segments. In fact, when looking at the broader GVRD—excluding downtown Vancouver—condo prices have barely moved.New listings in Vancouver came in slightly below 2024 levels but remain steady, and inventory continues to climb, reaching an 11-year high for April. With buyers still largely on the sidelines, the sales-to-active ratio has held in balanced market territory for 12 straight months—14% overall. The days-on-market average ticked up to 16, and foreclosure activity rose slightly but remains a minor share of total listings.Finally, we close with price movement: The Home Price Index fell by 0.5% this month, the first drop of the year, bringing the average Vancouver home price to $1.184M. The average price dropped by $20,000, and prices are now 1.8% lower than they were a year ago.Whether we've hit the bottom or are simply sliding along it remains to be seen—but the data suggests that a turning point could be on the horizon. Be sure to tune in for our full analysis, charts, and predictions—so you're prepared for what's next in this shifting market. _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

When is the right time to buy a home? For many, it's when they feel ready—personally and financially. But even then, timing the market, understanding future price direction, and interpreting shifting economic signals can complicate the decision. In this episode, we break down everything you need to know to make a confident, informed choice about buying a home in 2025.First, we examine the all-powerful & predominant force of interest rates. The Bank of Canada held steady in April, but with two more rate cuts expected in June and September, we could see the overnight rate drop to 2.25% by year-end. Variable-rate holders may feel relief by the fall, while fixed rates have remained mostly unchanged—making the 3.99% offers available now historically attractive, even if there's potential for further dips.But rates don't act alone. Sentiment plays a massive role. Despite consumer confidence hitting all-time lows, April brought a slight rebound—too soon to call it a trend. However, business sentiment continues to deteriorate, dragging down the Real Estate Outlook Index at its fastest pace since the 2022 rate shock. Sales volumes remain sluggish, and we don't expect a sharp bounce anytime soon.Real estate moves in cycles, and Vancouver's decades-long climb may be entering a slower phase. We revisit Toronto's 1989 peak, when prices fell 27% over seven years and took 22 years to recover in inflation-adjusted dollars. Could Vancouver follow a similar path after peaking in 2022? If so, prices may not reach those highs again until 2028 or later. Buying today means thinking long-term—and accepting that appreciation might not arrive on your timeline.Meanwhile, first-time buyers are getting older. In Canada, the average is now 33—up from 32 in the early '80s—while in Ontario it's hit 40. Surprisingly, Americans, with cheaper homes but more student debt, wait even longer (age 38 on average). What's driving Canadians to buy sooner? But supply is failing to keep up. March housing starts missed expectations by 14%, and condo construction is in freefall—down 45% from last year. Remove purpose-built rentals, and we're at 15-year lows. Ontario and BC, the provinces with the greatest need, are down 38% and 30% year-over-year. CMHC says we need 3.1 million more homes by 2030. At this rate, that's a pipe dream.On top of that, inventory levels are rising, especially in the pre-sale market. Vancouver could hit 3,500 unsold new condos by year-end—a 60% surge. With investor demand almost vanished (down from 50%, then 25% and now 7%!), developers are cancelling projects, and hundreds of homes won't break ground. Even with record immigration—Toronto just became North America's fastest-growing city—new supply is evaporating.We close with a mini-market update: May sales in Vancouver are trending at a six-year low (outside of COVID lockdowns), while inventory is at an 11-year high. Median prices are up slightly, but average prices are slipping. Could this be the inflection point?So… is now the right time to buy? That depends on your goals, your timeline, and your outlook. This episode delivers the data, trends, and insights to help you decide—with eyes wide open.Are you prepared to buy with the long-term in mind, even if prices don't rise during your ownership? Let's chat about it. _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

Building major housing projects in Canada is a deeply complex and often misunderstood process — one that requires more than just permits and plans. It's about aligning the vision, values, and needs of developers, cities, and the communities they aim to serve. And at the centre of that delicate balance is Gary Pooni, President of Pooni Group, a renowned Urban Planning and Land Development consultancy based in Vancouver. With nearly 30 years of experience, Gary has played a critical role in shaping some of the most significant developments across Metro Vancouver, Vancouver Island, the Sea-to-Sky Corridor, Alberta, and Ontario.In this episode, we sit down with Gary to uncover the nuanced and often unseen world of urban planning in Canada why it seemingly takes an inordinate amount of time to build anything. With over 800 projects successfully guided through all stages of the development process in more than 25 Canadian municipalities, the Pooni Group has become the gold standard in bridging the gap between municipal regulations and private development. Gary shares how his team helps developers navigate the red tape of rezoning, permitting, and compliance — particularly in markets like Vancouver, where the approval process for major projects can take years and often results in a stifled housing supply and elevated prices.We ask Gary to shed light on why this process takes so long, what the biggest systemic bottlenecks are, and what practical solutions might look like. From there, we zoom out to a national lens, exploring the broader challenges that slow the pace of housing construction across Canada — and what must change if we're serious about addressing affordability and supply.But this conversation goes far beyond bureaucracy. We explore the future of Canadian cities and what urbanization might look like by 2050. Gary shares his bold predictions about how technology — particularly AI and robotics — will shape the way we design and build communities. He also discusses how the post-pandemic landscape has fundamentally shifted the office and retail sectors, and how the concept of “experience” is becoming the cornerstone of these spaces.We also dive into demographic shifts — with millennials and downsizing boomers now dictating what types of homes are being built, what features matter most, and how planners need to adapt their strategies to meet evolving lifestyles and expectations.Finally, Gary introduces his brand-new development course — a must for anyone looking to understand the ins and outs of real estate development in Canada. Whether you're a new developer, a seasoned investor, or a curious policy enthusiast, this course promises to deliver practical knowledge from one of the most experienced professionals in the field.This episode is a masterclass in how real estate development really works in Canada — from behind-the-scenes negotiations to the visionary thinking needed to build the cities of tomorrow. Don't miss it.Join The Course Here:https://laidleracademy.com/pooni-new-era-course _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

In this week we cover some of the most consequential turning points in Canada's housing narrative to date including the breakdown of the Federal Conservative and Liberal housing plans. New home construction is collapsing at a national level—plummeting in cities like Vancouver by as much as 36% year-over-year—just as Canadians are being asked to decide who should lead the country through the next era of growth, or decline. We begin with the Bank of Canada's latest rate decision: after seven cuts in the last 12 months, the BoC held steady at 2.75%, citing uncertainty caused by the ongoing U.S. tariff war. Governor Tiff Macklem emphasized that monetary policy can't fix trade disputes but must focus on maintaining price stability. Although unemployment is rising and growth is slowing, the threat of inflation led the Bank to pause further cuts. At the same time, bond yields are surging, which could soon push mortgage rates higher, adding yet another affordability challenge for buyers.Inflation data offered a brief reprieve, coming in at 2.3% for March—cooler than expected—thanks largely to lower gas prices. Shelter costs remain high but are decelerating, and rents continue to trend downward. National home sales, however, paint a more sobering picture. Volumes fell 5% month-over-month and 9% year-over-year, making this past March the slowest on record since 2009. Despite that, prices have only dipped modestly—just 2.1% year-over-year by HPI, and 3.7% by average price—suggesting the market remains surprisingly resilient even as sentiment erodes.But it's the housing start data that really underlines the problem: Canada posted the lowest monthly housing starts in six years, and it's getting worse. Toronto's pre-sale condo market has all but collapsed. Sales are 88% below the 10-year average, and unsold inventory now sits at a staggering 78 months of supply! That's 6 years! Developers are pulling out, projects are being cancelled or converted to rentals, and there's zero profit margin left in many builds. As construction slows, a severe future housing shortage feels inevitable as the roller coaster continues.Finally, we break down the election housing platforms of both the Liberal and Conservative parties. The Liberals plan to double annual home construction to 500,000, reintroduce tax incentives for rental construction, and create a new government housing agency—yet offer little in the way of realistic execution given Canada hasn't built more than 270,000 homes in a single year in over four decades. Meanwhile, the Conservatives propose slashing GST on new homes up to $1.3M, punishing cities that fail to meet housing targets, and offering financial rewards to those that exceed them. They aim to unleash supply by freeing up federal land and cutting red tape, though critics argue their platform lacks implementation details.If housing affordability matters to you—and it should—then this episode is essential listening. We examine not only the data but the direction each political party is trying to take Canada. With construction grinding to a halt, affordability still out of reach for most, and developers hitting pause across the country, the decisions we make now will define the housing market for the next generation.  _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

The spring market is all but dead in 2025. That much is clear. The traditional seasonal surge in home sales that typically arrives in March and April has simply failed to show up. Home sales across Canada remain at multi-decade lows, with April currently trending a shocking 33% below last year—an already sluggish benchmark in itself. The market remains paralyzed under the weight of higher interest rates and high home prices, both of which are now colliding with a wave of mortgage renewals, Trump-imposed tariffs, and an upcoming federal election. These compounding pressures have Canadians turning their attention away from housing, choosing caution and savings over real estate.And yet, below the surface, the long-term trajectory of the Canadian real estate market is beginning to reveal itself. This episode dives deep into the undercurrents—employment, arrears, monthly payments, national inventory, and new housing construction—to show you where the market is heading next, even if you're not planning a move anytime soon. One revealing example is a recent court-ordered sale we just attended. Despite going through a complex legal foreclosure process, the property still attracted multiple offers and sold over asking—showing us that demand isn't dead, just dormant and highly specific.But here's where the tone starts to shift. Monthly mortgage payments have started to trend downward from their 2023 peak of $3,400, and if the Bank of Canada cuts rates to 2% as forecasted by many Banks, we could see payments fall by 30%. Combine that with the fastest wage growth in 25 years and the highest household savings rate in three decades, and you begin to understand why buyer intentions are beginning to creep back into the market —albeit modestly. Renters planning to buy are up from 17% to 19%, and existing homeowners considering a purchase rose from 14% to 16%. With sales at 30+ year lows, these early signs of returning confidence could be the start of the next upswing in the market cycle.Inventory is also building. Active listings in February rose 13.1% year-over-year, and while we're still below the long-term average, the trend is undeniable. In Toronto, March condo listings hit a record 5,500 in one month. The sales-to-new-listings ratio has dropped below 30% for the first time since 1991, and condo prices are already down nearly 5% year-over-year. Pre-sale condo activity has collapsed. In Toronto, only 152 new condos sold in the last month—down 95% from the 2022 peak. At this pace, new completions are projected to fall from over 30,000 in 2025 to fewer than 5,000 by 2029.And yet, even this bleak data paints a roadmap. With fewer completions ahead, the pre-sale condo market may re-emerge as a viable opportunity once the correction has taken place—just not in 2025 and potentially not until 2027 or 2028. For now, returns are still negative, but improving, with cash flow losses narrowing and principal paydown delivering small but positive equity growth. As cycles go, we are in the trough. But every cycle turns, the question is when. _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

ome sales in Vancouver just hit their lowest point in six years, marking yet another painful milestone in what's quickly becoming one of the most uncertain and volatile real estate markets in decades. And if you're wondering why this is happening, just look at the bigger picture—consumer confidence in Canada just hit an all-time low. That's right—lower than the depths of the Great Financial Crisis, and worse than the early pandemic panic. Business confidence is in the same horrific state, and these weren't even recorded after Trump's tariffs took effect. With those now in place, pressure is mounting on the Bank of Canada as it faces a nightmarish economic puzzle: GDP is rising, inflation is expected to heat back up, the housing market is crumbling, and record levels of debt are coming due for renewal. Meanwhile, the March real estate data for Vancouver has just dropped, and we're breaking down all the key metrics—from collapsing sales volumes to rising inventory to surprisingly resilient home prices—and analyzing what all this means for home values for the spring 2025 market.Let's talk inflation. March came in hot at 2.6%, a big jump from the previous month's 1.9%, and far above expectations. Mortgage interest costs have fallen again for the 18th straight month, but inflation is now at a seven-month high, forcing the Bank of Canada into a tightening corner. And behind the scenes, 45% of businesses expect to raise prices more than 5% this year—double what it was just six months ago. While tariffs may warrant easing, inflation is pushing back hard, and markets no longer expect a rate cut in April. Meanwhile, GDP rose again—up 0.4% in January after a 0.3% climb in December—led by energy and mining. While the headline looks positive, remember: per capita GDP has been in decline for over two years. The BOC may take these numbers at face value, but it's a fragile recovery at best.South of the border, the U.S. Fed held its rate at 4.5% last month, with possible cuts later this year. But Powell made it clear: if inflation stays sticky, high rates could persist. Their GDP forecast was revised down and inflation up. The takeaway? If the Fed cuts, Canada could follow—especially as our economic risks grow and global trade uncertainty lingers. In the mortgage world, renewals are surging—up 110% year-over-year—and projections vary widely. BMO sees rates at 2% by end of 2026, while Scotia sees no cuts until 2027. The big banks don't agree, but they're all aligned on one thing: no hikes are coming. That's welcome news for those riding variable rates or planning their next move.New housing supply is in freefall. National housing starts dropped 4% month-over-month and 12% year-over-year, but BC is the epicenter of the downturn: starts plunged 22% just last month and are down 32% from last year. In Vancouver alone, they're off by 18%. This comes at a time when building permits are at rock bottom—meaning even fewer homes will be built in the years to come. While inventory is high now, the longer-term risk is a devastating shortage. Just look at the national data going back to 1972: while population growth has doubled, housing completions have actually declined. CMHC now estimates we'll be short 3.5 million homes by 2030. Add affordability and suitability issues, and we're heading toward a full-blown housing crisis. _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

Just over a year ago, Vancouver's rental market was on fire. Rents were rising at record pace, showings were fully booked within hours, and competition was fierce. Fast forward to today, and it's a very different story. Properties that used to rent in a single day are now sitting on the market for months. Rents are softening, vacancy is creeping up, and investors—especially small-scale landlords—are starting to feel the pressure.In this episode, we explore the major shift in Vancouver's rental market, digging into the economic forces and real estate dynamics that got us here. From high interest rates and inflation-fighting policies to rising construction costs and tariff threats, we break down how macroeconomic conditions have trickled down into a rental environment that's finally showing signs of balance—or at least a pause.We take a closer look at the impact of newly completed, purpose-built rental buildings and how they're changing the game for mom-and-pop investors. In 2024 alone, over 17,900 new rental units have been registered—representing 44.4% of all new housing starts in BC. As these larger, professionally managed buildings come online, they offer better amenities, stronger tenant protections, and often more aggressive pricing and incentives to fill vacancies quickly. This puts significant pressure on individual condo landlords, many of whom now have to drop rents or risk sitting vacant for months.We share real-world examples that paint a clear picture of this market shift. A 1,000 square foot, two-bed plus den in Yaletown that rented in just one day in 2022 for $3,500 is now listed at $3,400, has sat on the market for over 80 days, and may lease at $3,300—a 6% decline. A one-bedroom unit in Coquitlam that rented in 2 days for $2,300 in November 2023 just leased for $1,900 after 93 days and 33 showings—a 17% drop. Average days on market have risen from 32 to over 43 in the past year, and many units are receiving less than one showing per week.This episode unpacks what all of this means for renters, landlords, and investors alike. The balance of power may be shifting toward tenants, with more options, lower prices, and better negotiating power than they've had in years. At the same time, investors are being squeezed by rising holding costs, taxes, and a softening rental environment. Even as mortgage rates show signs of easing, the gap between expenses and income is widening for many who purchased recently using high leverage.We also examine whether purpose-built rentals are truly improving affordability, or simply creating a new class of high-end rental stock. While many of these buildings offer cost efficiencies, lower maintenance, and no risk of eviction due to landlord use or sale, they often come with premium finishes and luxury amenities that keep monthly rents high. Still, their existence could free up more condo units for first-time buyers and shift tenant demand in a meaningful way.Whether you're a tenant looking to time your move, a landlord wondering how to stay competitive, or an investor rethinking your long-term strategy, this episode brings clarity to a rapidly evolving market. We break down what's happening now, what's likely coming next, and what you can do to stay ahead of the curve in Vancouver's changing rental landscape. _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

Welcome to The Vancouver Life Podcast! In this episode, we dive into the forces shaping the future of Vancouver's real estate market with Josh White, the General Manager of Planning, Urban Design, and Sustainability for the City of Vancouver. Josh brings a wealth of experience from his time as Director of City and Regional Planning and Co-Chief Planner at the City of Calgary, and now leads Vancouver's planning efforts at a time when housing supply, affordability, and urban development are more critical than ever. We discuss the lessons he's learned from his time in Calgary and brought to Vancouver, and how the city is tackling some of its biggest affordability challenges. We dig into the complexities of Vancouver's permitting process, why timelines under the City's ambitious 3-3-3-1 Plan have been difficult to meet, and whether hiring more staff is really the solution. Josh sheds light on the city's plan to streamline over 1,800 pages of policy documents into just 100 pages and what that will mean for builders and homeowners. We also explore upcoming system changes that could cut permit times in half by allowing Development Permits and Building Permits to be processed in parallel. Josh shares his take on Bill 47 and how transit-oriented development is shaping the future. We tackle the long and often frustrating process developers face to rezone and build towers, why Vancouver's city fees are among the highest in Canada, and how Development Cost Levies impact affordability and cash flow. We ask where these funds are being spent, whether there's accountability in how they're used, and discuss the city's evolving stance on banning natural gas in new homes. Josh also weighs in on Bob Rennie's recent proposal to allow foreign buyers to participate in pre-sales with long-term rental commitments, and we talk about changes to REDMA that give developers more breathing room in today's challenging market. Lastly, Josh shares his vision for housing in Vancouver, how builders can help streamline processes at City Hall, the conversations happening around affordability, and how sustainability is built into every decision the city makes for the future. This is an in-depth conversation you won't want to miss if you care about the future of housing in Vancouver.Josh White joined the City of Vancouver in May of 2024, coming from Calgary where most recently he was Director, City and Regional Planning and Co-Chief Planner at the City of Calgary. There, he stewarded the adoption of a new housing strategy in collaboration with partners and led the creation of a simpler and more effective planning policy and regulation. During a period of extraordinary population growth for the city, Josh also oversaw strategic growth, growth funding and financing, and infrastructure planning for the municipality. In his tenure at the City of Calgary, he also initiated and led the significant transformation of the development approvals system, which resulted in improved planning outcomes,benchmarked as among the most efficient in Canada.He holds a master's degree in urban and regional planning from Queen's University, and began his career in the private sector, serving a variety of private and public sector clients as a consultant with Urban Strategies in Toronto. Josh's private sector experience also includes leading planning and approvals for Alpine Park, a progressive n _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

The Bank of Canada cut interest rates this week for the 7th consecutive time, lowering the overnight rate to 2.75%—a level we haven't seen since August 2022. But what really caught our attention wasn't just the cut itself—it was what Governor Tiff Macklem said at the press conference. Macklem explicitly stated that tariffs are restraining household spending intentions, and in response, the BOC is acting to stimulate the economy. That's right—he's openly admitting that the Bank is working to revive spending, which in Canada, largely means propping up the housing market. This isn't speculation. It's policy. And it's becoming increasingly clear that maintaining home prices is a top priority at the highest levels of government.But what does this mean for Canadians, especially those with mortgages renewing this year? We ran the numbers: a homeowner who took out an $800,000 mortgage in 2020 at 1.8% will see their monthly payments jump by $927 if they renew today at a 4.39% fixed rate. That's still 32% higher than what they were paying four years ago. While rate cuts are happening, they're nowhere near enough to ease the burden of higher borrowing costs—at least not yet. On the inflation front, early warning signs are flashing yellow. The Raw Materials Price Index is up 11% year-over-year, the highest jump since 2022. The Industrial Product Price Index is also rising, historically a leading indicator of core inflation. And with 20% of businesses planning to hike prices by 6% or more this year, it's possible that inflation could start creeping back up by Q4 2025. If that happens, we may not see as many rate cuts as the market is pricing in.The uncertainty around tariffs is also crushing consumer and business confidence. The Index of Consumer Confidence has now dropped below Global Financial Crisis levels, meaning people feel worse about the economy today than they did in 2008. And with nearly 63% of Canadians saying it's a bad time to make a major purchase, spending is slowing—bad news for businesses already holding back on investments. This hesitation is showing up in BC real estate sales as well. In February, home sales in BC fell 9.7% year-over-year, with average prices down 2.4%. The total sales volume hit just $4.8 billion, an 11.8% decline compared to last year. This is a major shift from the red-hot market we saw in 2021 and 2022, proving that even with rate cuts, buyers remain cautious.Lastly, we take a deep dive into the growing wealth divide. Despite economic uncertainty, household net worth in Canada surged 1.4% in Q4 2024, adding $236.3 billion in wealth and bringing the total to $17.5 trillion. Over the past year, wealth climbed by 7.3%, even after adjusting for inflation. But here's the catch: the top 20% of households now control 68% of all financial assets, a share that continues to grow. With interest rates coming down, asset holders will benefit the most, widening the wealth gap even further. _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

The impact of tariffs on the housing market is already being felt. Even before they were implemented, just the threat of tariffs was enough to put buyers on the sidelines. Now that they are in place, the effects are hitting fast. Toronto, often viewed as a key indicator of the condo market, saw sales drop 28% month-over-month in February—a month that typically sees an increase from January. Vancouver's numbers reveal similar trends, with sales momentum reversing sharply after months of steady growth.While headline GDP growth showed a stronger-than-expected 2.6% annualized gain in Q4, the real story lies in GDP per capita, which has declined for two straight years, confirming that Canada has been in a per capita recession for over 24 months. Job vacancies have also plunged to their lowest levels since 2017, leaving workers with the worst job prospects in seven years. Despite what the official numbers suggest, the economic reality is pointing towards a prolonged slowdown that could further weaken real estate demand. One of the few bright spots for homeowners is the declining 5-year bond yield, which has hit a three-year low of 2.6%. This drop has made mortgage rates more attractive for the more than 50% of borrowers set to renew in the next two years. However, with tariffs likely to slow GDP growth even further, it's increasingly likely that the Bank of Canada will be forced to cut interest rates, possibly as soon as this spring, especially with an election on the horizon.The latest February 2025 real estate stats for Vancouver confirm shifting market dynamics. Total sales came in at 1,815, down 12% year-over-year and 29% below the 10-year average. This is particularly notable because since October, sales had been higher than 2023 levels each month—until February, when the trend reversed. The level of uncertainty created by tariff threats and economic instability has pushed buyers to the sidelines, and now that tariffs are in place, it appears the spring market may not materialize in the usual way.New listings rose 11% year-over-year to 5,066, marking a 12% increase above the 10-year average. However, February listings were actually lower than January, an unusual occurrence only seen six times in the past decade. The standout statistic here is condo inventory—February saw the highest number of condo listings ever recorded for the month, following a record-breaking January. This surge suggests a shift in buyer preference away from high-density living, as well as a growing supply of purpose-built rental housing, which is altering demand patterns. Inventory levels remain a key story, with active listings rising 32% year-over-year to 12,350, sitting 36% above the 10-year average. This places inventory at its highest February level in over a decade, though still below the 2012 peak of 14,875. The sales-to-active listings ratio stands at 15%, marking the 10th consecutive month in a balanced market, with detached homes at 10%, townhomes at 20%, and condos at 17%.One thing is clear—Vancouver real estate is at a pivotal moment, and how policymakers respond in the coming months could shape the market for years to come. _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

The Toronto real estate market is making national headlines, with growing concerns about a condo crisis that has both buyers and developers feeling the pressure. In this episode, we sit down with renowned Toronto Realtor Tom Storey to break down what's really happening on the ground. With reports of buyers failing to close on pre-sale units and developers facing insolvency, we discuss how these issues are playing out in real-time and whether they're as severe as they sound. Are condos the only segment struggling, or is the slowdown affecting all types of housing? And how does Toronto's market compare to what we're seeing here in Vancouver? With both cities navigating high borrowing costs, policy roadblocks, and affordability concerns, we examine the parallels and key differences between the two.A record-low number of new projects launched in January, raising questions about whether developers will be on pause for most of 2025. We explore whether rising development charges, lengthy permit processes, and shifting buyer demand are keeping new housing from coming to market. These same issues have been major inhibitors to new supply in B.C., and we compare how government policies in both provinces are shaping future development. Additionally, with 50%+ of Canadian mortgages set to renew at significantly higher rates over the next two years, we assess how this looming financial pressure could impact both homeowners and investors. Are investors checking out of the market entirely, or are new opportunities emerging in the current landscape?Beyond the immediate slowdown, we also look at long-term structural issues. Toronto, much like Vancouver, has long been criticized for its lack of "Missing Middle" housing—smaller, multi-unit developments that could provide a bridge between high-rise condos and detached homes. We ask Tom whether Toronto has made any meaningful progress in addressing this gap and if there are solutions that could help increase supply. We also touch on the contentious topic of Ontario's Greenbelt—could opening up more land be a solution to affordability and supply issues, or would it create more problems? Additionally, with new tariffs looming over the construction industry, we analyze the potential ripple effects on housing costs and supply.Despite the uncertainties, market shifts often bring opportunities. Tom shares insights on where buyers and investors should be looking right now, what strategies are working for those still active in the market, and what potential silver linings could emerge from this downturn. And while there are real concerns about the future, there are also reasons for optimism. We wrap up by asking Tom what excites and scares him most about the future of Toronto real estate and how the market might evolve over the next few years. If you're looking for a deep dive into one of Canada's most talked-about real estate markets—and how it compares to Vancouver—this is an episode you won't want to miss! _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

The Canadian housing market is experiencing one of its most dramatic shifts in recent history, as the gap between government promises and market realities continues to widen. While policymakers have focused on demand-side measures like home-flipping taxes, actual housing starts have declined significantly. Meanwhile, an unprecedented number of rental units are entering the market, leading to falling rental prices.Despite political rhetoric about increasing housing supply, overall housing starts have dropped 19% since their peak in 2021, now sitting at 239,000. However, rental unit construction is surging—up 44% year-over-year—comprising nearly half of all new starts. A record-breaking 144,000 rental units are currently in development, which is already having a profound effect on the market.Rental rates, which had been rising for 38 months straight, have now fallen for four consecutive months, with national averages dropping from a peak of $2,196 in January 2024 to $2,100 today. Shared accommodation listings have surged 42% year-over-year, with rates declining 7.6%, signaling a shifting dynamic in the rental market.While rental construction is booming, single-family home (SFH) completions tell a different story. In January 2025, only 3,800 SFHs were completed—the lowest monthly total since 1997. This ongoing supply crunch suggests that SFH prices may hold firm, even as the condo market weakens.Inflation in Canada remains relatively stable, sitting at 1.9% in January, marking six consecutive months at or below the Bank of Canada's 2% target. However, the vast majority of inflation—1.3%—is being driven by shelter costs. Mortgage interest costs, a key driver of inflation, have been slowing, with the most recent increase at just 0.2%, the weakest since April 2022.Employment Insurance (EI) claims are rising at an alarming rate. Nationally, claims increased 14% year-over-year, from 245,000 to over 280,000, while Ontario saw a 29% jump, from 76,000 to 98,000. These numbers suggest weakening economic conditions, which could drag down GDP growth in the months ahead.On the mortgage front, December saw a staggering 90% year-over-year surge in mortgage originations, largely due to renewals. Many homeowners who locked in ultra-low rates five years ago are now facing a 35% payment shock, putting additional strain on household finances.At the same time, housing inventory is surging. January saw an 11% month-over-month increase in new listings—the largest ever recorded. BC led the way with a staggering 29% increase. Pre-sale condo inventory in Greater Vancouver has nearly doubled from 7,000 to 12,000 units, pushing total available homes in the region above 25,000. This supply surge is making price increases unlikely in the near term.February data indicates a shift in market momentum. After months of year-over-year sales growth, February saw a 12% annual decline in sales activity. Prices are also softening, with median home prices in Greater Vancouver dropping $20,000 to $900,000—a 10% decline from peak values. _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

Housing inventory is surging across Canada, with cities like Vancouver and Toronto seeing multi-year highs in new listings—Vancouver up 33% YoY (a 13-year high) and Toronto spiking 49% YoY (a 16-year high). This sudden jump in supply is driven by a mix of record completions, stricter tenancy laws, and struggling investors selling off properties due to rising mortgage costs and softening rental markets. Buyers, however, are staying on the sidelines, hesitant amid economic uncertainty, high borrowing costs, and the looming threat of tariffs, setting up a volatile 2025 housing market. In this episode, we break down these trends and explore whether demand will rise enough to absorb the flood of new listings—or if prices will continue their downward trajectory.At the same time, Canada's job market data is sending mixed signals. While official reports show strong job growth, deeper payroll data indicates three consecutive months of job losses, raising questions about the real state of employment. Long-term unemployment has doubled, permanent layoffs are climbing, and wage growth is slowing—all signs that economic hardship may be more widespread than headline numbers suggest. Historically, unemployment and mortgage arrears have moved in lockstep, and while arrears remain low for now, any continued weakness in employment could push more homeowners into financial distress, impacting the market further.Despite today's inventory surge, new home construction is already slowing dramatically, which could set the stage for a supply crunch in the coming years. In Toronto, new housing starts just hit a 30-year low, with only 51 new units (not buildings—units) started last month. In Vancouver, new home construction declined by 3% in December, the largest drop in three years, and detached home building permits are at their lowest level in 45 years. While today's market feels oversaturated, this drastic slowdown in development could lead to a severe housing shortage in 2026–2027, potentially driving prices back up just as they are starting to cool.With consumer insolvencies rising, job data inconsistencies, and supply declining in the long run, we could be witnessing the beginning of a major market shift. Will today's housing surplus be short-lived? Could government policies or economic conditions unexpectedly swing the pendulum in the opposite direction? Tune in as we break down the latest trends, challenge the mainstream narrative, and explore what's next for Canada's real estate market. _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

Vancouver home prices took a sharp dive in January, hitting a two-year low, while Canada's GDP shrank in November, signaling potential economic trouble ahead. Adding to the uncertainty, looming tariffs could push housing costs even higher, leaving both buyers and sellers wondering what's next. If you're planning to enter the market in 2025, this episode is essential as we break down the data and what it means for you.The market is facing some serious headwinds and the threat of Tariffs is ever present. The potential for a 25% Tariff on key building materials like windows, drywall, and appliances would drive up construction costs, making new homes even more expensive. While a temporary 30-day pause has been put in place, tariffs could still take effect at any time. Earlier this week, when they seemed imminent, BMO's chief economist projected 0% GDP growth for 2025, 8% unemployment, and aggressive interest rate cuts down to 1.5%. The Canadian dollar briefly hit a 23-year low, and the 5-year bond yield dropped to a 30-month low, signaling lower mortgage rates ahead. In fact, 5-year fixed mortgage rates are already available at 3.89%, a sharp decline from last year.The BC Real Estate Association has painted a stark picture of what could happen if tariffs are imposed and Canada retaliates. They predict home sales could drop 30%, while active listings could rise 40%, leading to a more prolonged buyer's market. Mortgage rates could climb to 6% by 2026, and while prices are still expected to rise, they would increase at a much slower pace. With so much uncertainty, many buyers and sellers may wait on the sidelines, similar to the early days of the pandemic.At the same time, Vancouver's housing market is seeing some surprising shifts. January sales were up 9% year-over-year, marking the strongest January in three years. But new listings surged 46% compared to last year, reaching one of the highest January levels on record. Inventory is climbing quickly, hitting 11,100 active listings, a 33% increase over last year. The last time inventory was this high in January was 2019, a year when prices declined slightly. The sales-to-active listings ratio now sits at 14%, confirming that we remain in a balanced market, but momentum is shifting.Perhaps the biggest red flag is price movement. While the HPI benchmark price showed a slight increase in January, more immediate indicators tell a different story. Median prices dropped by $80,000, the largest single-month decline in 18 months, while average prices fell by $70,000, hitting their lowest level in two years. These sharp drops suggest that sellers may be adjusting expectations, while buyers hesitate to make moves in an uncertain environment.So, what's next? With sellers eager to offload properties and buyers waiting for more clarity on tariffs and interest rates, the spring market could be weaker than expected. Early February sales trends suggest a slower start, but as we approach the peak season, things could shift. Will prices stabilize, or are we heading into a prolonged downturn? Tune in as we analyze what's happening in Vancouver real estate and where the market might be headed next. _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

In this special episode of the Vancouver Life Real Estate Podcast, we welcome Doug Porter, Chief Economist at BMO Financial Group, to provide unparalleled insights into Canada's economic landscape. With over 30 years of experience and a proven track record as one of the top economic forecasters in North America, Doug shares his expert analysis on the Bank of Canada's recent rate cut and its potential ripple effects across the economy, financial markets, and the Canadian housing sector.We dive into hot-button topics like the impact of immigration policy changes on housing affordability, the long-term economic consequences of tariffs, and the evolving lending landscape in Canada. Doug also unpacks how the so-called “mortgage renewal cliff” may not be as alarming as it sounds, highlighting how Canadians are adapting to higher interest rates.From analyzing regional housing trends—like Vancouver's surprising resilience compared to Toronto's cooling condo market—to exploring the broader implications of geopolitical tensions, this episode is packed with actionable insights for homeowners, investors, and anyone curious about Canada's economic outlook.Doug's practical advice for buyers, his predictions for interest rates, and his views on what Canada must do to foster economic stability make this an episode you don't want to miss. Whether you're planning your next real estate move or simply want to understand the forces shaping Canada's financial future, this conversation will leave you informed and inspired.Tune in now and gain a deeper understanding of the market trends that matter most. _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

The final numbers for Canada's housing market in 2024 are in, and they've revealed some unexpected trends. Despite challenges such as high interest rates and declining housing starts, national home prices rose by 2.5% last year, bringing the average home price to $676,640. Every province and territory saw price increases except for Ontario, which experienced a modest 1.7% decline. The Northwest Territories led the nation with a remarkable 34.8% price increase, followed by New Brunswick at 15.5% and the Yukon at 12.8%. British Columbia also performed well, with home prices rising by 5.9%, while Alberta saw solid growth of 9.4%.Ontario's slight decline, however, masks significant issues in the pre-construction condo market, particularly in Toronto, where sales hit a 28-year low in 2024. Newly constructed condos flooded the market, driving prices down by 10-15% or more in some cases as sellers undercut each other. Yet, when viewed at the provincial level, Ontario's overall housing market showed resilience, with a decline that remains manageable by most standards.Meanwhile, inflation continues to ease, as the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) print came in at 1.8%—the second-lowest reading in 46 months. This marks a slight decline from December's 1.9% and the 16th consecutive month of cooling mortgage interest costs, which dropped from 13.2% to 11.6%. Rent inflation also eased, falling from 7.7% to 7.1%. Inflation has now remained within the Bank of Canada's target range for 12 straight months, with the broader CPI reading excluding mortgage interest costs coming in at just 1.3%. These metrics, coupled with a strong employment report, suggest the Bank of Canada may lower interest rates at its next meeting, with markets currently pricing in a 0.25% cut that would bring the overnight rate to 3%, its lowest level since August 2022.This data reinforces the importance of understanding how hyper-local real estate markets operate. For instance, in Vancouver's Mount Pleasant East neighborhood, half duplexes reached their highest prices ever in 2024, climbing 7% above the 2022 peak. By contrast, condos in the same area are 3% below their peak prices, and detached homes are down 9%. These variations emphasize the need for precise, localized market insights when making real estate decisions.Next week we have Mr. Doug Porter, the Chief Economist for the Bank of Montreal coming back on the show to discuss how he sees the Canadian economy shaping up for 2025 _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

This week's episode is packed with crucial updates and insights that could directly affect your real estate decisions in 2025.A much stronger-than-expected jobs report has thrown a wrench into predictions for interest rate cuts, potentially keeping the Bank of Canada on hold this January. With Canada adding 91,000 jobs last month, (far exceeding expectations) compounded by labour market strength is complicating the case for lower rates. However, not all is as it seems: 62,000 of those jobs went to workers over 55, and a significant portion came from public sector growth (44%!). We break down what this could mean for mortgage rates and why the 5-year bond yield is already climbing.In Vancouver, affordability continues to be a challenge as recent policies are expected to push home prices higher. On the flip side, there's good news out of Burnaby, where one of the first multiplex building permits has been approved. The timeline, fees, and offsite costs surprised even the developer—and might give hope to those exploring small-scale development opportunities.We also tackle the ongoing affordability crisis, exploring how the ban on natural gas in new construction and new net-zero mandates are inflating the cost of homes. For example, a fourplex project now have an additional $150,000 for electrical upgrades, adding roughly $40,000 to the cost of each unit. These policy changes are a stark reminder to “watch what they do, not what they say” when it comes to government claims about building affordable housing.Meanwhile, mortgage arrears are also starting to climb, with delinquency rates hitting a 9-year high in Toronto. Yet even as the headlines grab attention, the data tells a different story—arrears remain well below pre-pandemic levels, and the overall risk of panic is low. However, with 50% of mortgage holders set to face higher payments over the next two years (in excess of 30+%), it's clear that financial strain is building for many Canadians.We also take a closer look at the nearly 30% of homes listed for sale that are vacant. Are they former Airbnbs, second homes, or properties listed to dodge the vacancy tax? It's a fascinating trend that raises more questions about the current state of the market.And to cap it off, we're excited to showcase a stunning family home on Vancouver's prestigious Golden Mile in Kitsilano. Located on West 1st Avenue, this property boasts breathtaking ocean views, over $1 million in renovations, and one of the most luxurious primary suites you'll ever see. Don't miss this incredible listing—check it out at www.3262W1st.com _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

In this episode, we explore our predictions for the 2025 Vancouver Real Estate Market, diving deep into the economic and financial trends that will shape the year ahead. With Canada's GDP growth expected to remain moderate, driven by immigration and resource exports, the potential for a mild recession looms if elevated interest rates continue to slow consumer spending and business investment. We analyze the possibility of economic turbulence while discussing key signals in sectors like housing, manufacturing, and retail. Meanwhile, Canada's population growth is expected to drop considerably from before but will still be pushing the annual growth, to what extent remains to be seen. This sustained influx will fuel housing demand but could strain infrastructure and services.On the employment front, the unemployment rate, currently at 6.8%, is projected to remain somewhat stable within the 6.5%-8% range. While population growth could create new job opportunities, sensitive sectors like construction and tech may see some challenges. Inflation, sitting at 1.9%, is anticipated to close the year between 2.0% and 2.5%, assuming stable monetary policy and limited disruptions in energy prices or supply chains. This outcome largely depends on US trade policy which has yet to be sorted out. The Bank of Canada's interest rate, currently at 3.25%, is forecasted to ease slightly by year-end if inflation targets maintain and economic growth softens. In tandem, mortgage rates are likely to decline as well, with variable & potentially fixed rates dropping too. Despite these adjustments, Canada's mortgage arrears rate, historically low at around 0.15%, may see a slight uptick as households adjust to higher payments on renewals.Turning to real estate, we predict a steady recovery in sales volumes, with activity returning near the 10-year average, barring any significant rate fluctuations. The sales-to-active listings ratio which is currently signaling balanced market conditions may tick up into a Seller's market with more interest rate fluctuations. Inventory levels may see modest growth too as many who did not sell in 2024 will return to the market to try again. In the pre-sale market, developers are projected to cautiously release new projects, reflecting a gradual increase in buyer confidence. After an 8% decline in rental rates during 2024, the rental market is expected to stabilize though this will largely depend on immigration levels and the overall performance of the economy.In this episode we also highlight the top markets poised to outperform the Greater Vancouver region in 2025. We look at Surrey and Langley as they continue to attract buyers with affordability and infrastructure investment among a list of other locations that we strongly endorse. Tune in and find out which areas those are!This episode provides a comprehensive roadmap for navigating the opportunities and challenges of Vancouver's 2025 real estate market. Whether you're a buyer, seller, or investor, these insights will help you stay ahead in a shifting landscape. Tune in to learn more about what to expect and how to make informed decisions in the year ahead or book a one-on-one exploratory call with us and we'll help guide you through this recovering marketplace. _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

Welcome to the first episode of The Vancouver Life Real Estate Podcast for 2025! As we kick off the new year, we start this year by reflecting on an intriguing 2024 in Greater Vancouver real estate. Today, we're unpacking December's freshly released market stats, analyzing how 2024 wrapped up, and exploring what's on the horizon for 2025.This is a special double-header episode where we'll revisit our 2024 real estate predictions to see where we were right, where we missed the mark, and what new trends are setting up 2025 to be a dynamic and potentially surprising year.Highlights from December reveal some fascinating trends. Sales reached their highest December total in three years, up 32% year-over-year, though still 15% below the 10-year average. New listings surged 26% year-over-year, marking the highest December total in three years. Inventory remains elevated, with December's levels the highest since 2018 and 25% above the 10-year average•The Sales-to-active ratios show balanced market conditions for the eighth consecutive month, with townhomes and apartments pushing us into the upper limits of a Balanced market.In terms of pricing, Vancouver's housing market defied more pessimistic predictions, with all three price metrics—HPI, median, and average prices—rising year-over-year. Notably, median prices climbed 4.5%, just 2% shy of the all-time high.As we dive deeper, we'll also compare Vancouver's performance to Toronto's market and national trends. While BC lagged behind the national average home price increase of 7.4%, it still holds the title for the highest average home price in Canada. Tune into the rest of the episode and find out where we right and where we went wrong as we review the predictions we made for 2024. _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

Welcome to a special holiday edition of The Vancouver Real Estate Podcast! As we wrap up 2024, we're thrilled to celebrate a major milestone—our channel hitting 5,000 subscribers on Christmas Day, doubling in size over the past year! This achievement means the world to us, especially for such a niche channel, and it's all thanks to you—our viewers who have tuned in, shared our videos, and subscribed. As we move into 2025, we're committed to improving the channel, fostering open conversations about Vancouver real estate, and connecting 1-on-1 through our Calendly link. Looking back, 2024 was a year of housing promises from all levels of government. Initiatives like Bill 44, which aimed to densify single-family neighborhoods, faced hurdles like municipal pushback and high taxes & community contribution fees. The federal Housing Accelerator Fund & Trudeau promised over 3.9 million homes but has yet to deliver any completed builds.  CMHC raised its mortgage insurance limit to $1.5 million, which helps buyers access more expensive homes but doesn't address affordability. Meanwhile, policies like the anti-flipping tax are unlikely to curb rising prices but may reduce the supply of renovated properties, exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance. The market also saw significant struggles, with pre-sale projects shelved, developer insolvencies up 36% year-over-year, and building permits near all-time lows. On the brighter side, 2024 marked the first-interest rate cuts in over four years, which has started to provide relief for buyers and developers alike.   Inflation remained below 3% throughout the year, though maintaining this stability amidst global uncertainty will be a challenge, particularly with political shifts like the return of Trump and Canada's federal leadership changes. The Airbnb ban disrupted short-term rental markets, while stricter renters' policies continued to deter smaller investors, limiting rental supply.  As we head into 2025, the focus must shift from adding more policies to addressing the root issue: increasing housing supply by removing red tape and, ideally, reducing government fees and taxes.  Thank you again for helping us reach 5,000 subscribers, and we look forward to continuing this journey with you. Join us next week for a recap of December's stats, and don't miss our 2025 predictions episode on January 11.   Happy Holidays, and we'll see you in 2025! _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

You'd think the housing world would quiet down by mid-December, but this week has been packed with significant developments. Inflation data showed a continued cooling trend, with November's rate at 1.9%, marking four consecutive months below 2%. The shelter component also eased, but rents defied expectations, rising 7.7% year-over-year nationally despite sharp declines in major cities like Vancouver, where rents are down 10%. Rate cuts are back on the table, with the Bank of Canada expected to lower rates incrementally in early 2025, while variable-rate mortgages are regaining popularity. South of the border, the Federal Reserve cut rates by 0.25%, signaling caution amid strong GDP and persistent inflation. The move widened the gap between Canadian and U.S. rates to levels not seen since 1997, weakening the Canadian dollar to under $0.70 USD and highlighting diverging economic paths between the two nations.Canada's labor market continues to struggle, with unemployment hitting a seven-year high and job vacancies plunging to a four-year low. Companies are hiring fewer workers, creating a troubling imbalance with less than one job available for every two job seekers. This dynamic reflects a worsening economic downturn, with nearly 20% of unemployed Canadians classified as long-term unemployed. The construction sector, a key pillar of the workforce, faces additional challenges as housing starts have declined significantly over the year, despite a recent monthly uptick. Large-scale building permits, which indicate future supply, are also falling sharply, particularly in Ontario. These trends raise concerns about the future of housing affordability and employment in an already strained economy.Compounding these issues is political upheaval, with both Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland and Housing Minister Sean Fraser stepping down. Freeland's tenure ended amidst criticism of Canada's record deficits, with the Fall Economic Statement revealing a $62 billion shortfall—50% over budget. Meanwhile, B.C.'s 2024-2025 budget projects a staggering $9.4 billion deficit, the largest in provincial history. Fraser, who oversaw record immigration levels that strained housing and healthcare systems, has faced sharp criticism for his policies' long-term impacts. With mounting government debt, declining investor confidence, and slowing immigration, the outlook for 2025 appears unpredictable. This perfect storm of economic uncertainty, housing struggles, and political shakeups underscores the challenges and potential opportunities that Canada faces heading into the new year. _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

The Bank of Canada (BoC) lowered its policy rate by 50 basis points this week, bringing it to 3.25%, the lowest level in over two years. This significant cut, which follows weaker-than-expected GDP growth and rising unemployment, has increased buying power for borrowers by 21%, enabling higher mortgage affordability. However, questions remain about whether these rate cuts are sufficient to revive the economy and ease challenges for mortgage holders renewing at higher rates in 2025. Despite the BoC's confidence in achieving its 2% inflation target and avoiding a recession next year, rising insolvencies and declining consumer confidence suggest significant financial strain for many Canadians.Economic indicators paint a concerning picture. Unemployment has risen to 6.8%, the highest in eight years outside of the pandemic, with Toronto particularly hard hit, where the jobless rate has surged by 47% year-over-year. Consumer and business insolvencies are climbing sharply, especially in Ontario, which saw its highest single-month insolvency filings in 14 years. Additionally, consumer confidence has experienced its steepest decline since mid-2022, casting doubt on near-term economic resilience compounded by reduced immigration forecasts, slowing housing starts, and looming risks from potential U.S. tariffs.The housing market remains a mixed bag. Toronto sales rose 39% year-over-year in November, with prices showing a slight monthly increase, but pre-construction sales have collapsed by 84% over the past year. Nationally, arrears rates have remained stable at 0.2%, supported by significant home equity gains over the past five years. This equity provides homeowners with options, such as re-amortizing mortgages or downsizing, to mitigate financial pressures. Meanwhile, affordability is improving incrementally. Monthly mortgage payments for a typical Vancouver home have dropped 19% from 2023 peaks, and rental rates are also declining, signaling some relief for buyers and renters alike.Looking ahead, the BoC is expected to implement further rate cuts in early 2025, with a potential pause to assess the economy's state. However, with unemployment rising, consumer spending weakening, and housing construction slowing, the path to recovery remains uncertain. While rate cuts may provide temporary relief, deeper structural challenges in Canada's economy suggest a long road ahead. _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

If you own a home in British Columbia, you could be sitting on an untapped financial opportunity worth seven figures. Thanks to Bill 44, homeowners now have the chance to significantly increase the value of their properties by converting single-family homes into modern multiplex developments. In this episode, we're joined by David Babakaiff of Alair Homes, an award-winning builder and expert in multiplex construction, to help homeowners understand how they can unlock this incredible potential.David explains how this new legislation impacts over 300,000 properties in the Lower Mainland, opening the door for homeowners to turn their lot into a wealth-generating asset. He shares real-life examples of families who have added over $1 million in equity by building duplexes, triplexes, or even larger multiplexes on their properties. Whether your goal is to sell the new units, rent them for passive income, or even live mortgage-free in a beautiful new home, the possibilities are multiple.This episode breaks down the process step-by-step, including how to assess the feasibility of your lot, secure financing, and design a project that maximizes profit while meeting your goals. David also highlights how his team simplifies the journey, offering a seamless approach with experts in financial planning, architecture, construction, tax strategies, and real estate sales.Your home might be worth far more than you think, and this podcast is your guide to finding out how much. Imagine transforming your property into a multi-unit building and walking away with significant financial gains—without losing ownership of your land. If you're curious about how much money you could make with a multiplex, reach out to us today to explore your options. This is your chance to turn your property into a wealth-building powerhouse.About David BabakaiffDavid is a veteran of residential building spanning almost three decades in BC.   His companies are multi award winning, building custom homes at volume, small multifamily mixed-use buildings and multiplexes. He has been vice president of BC interior's Canadian Home Builders Association; co-founder of a $5 million VCC fund, and founder of companies in forestry logistics and industrial waste management as well as industrial alternate energy technology. In 2012 David brought Aliar Homes to Vancouver, and today David's focus is helping homeowners unlock wealth by converting their houses to multiplexes.david@alairhomes.comAbout Alair HomesAlair began building one-of custom homes in Nanaimo and has grown to over 100 offices across North America. Today, Alair® has the largest footprint of any premium custom home building and large-scale renovation/ remodelling brand in the world. _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

This episode delves deeply into the housing affordability crisis in Canada, a critical issue that remains at the forefront in 2024. With persistently high home prices, elevated interest rates, and a rising cost of living, homeownership is becoming increasingly unattainable for many Canadians.The data tells a sobering story. Homeownership rates in Canada have declined from 69% in 2011 to 66% today, with younger generations facing even greater challenges. For Canadians aged 25 to 29, the homeownership rate has dropped sharply, from 44.1% in 2011 to 36.5% in 2021. This decline underscores the growing barriers to entering the housing market.The struggles extend beyond prospective homebuyers. Developers are contending with soaring construction costs, skyrocketing municipal development fees, and high interest rates, creating a hostile environment for new projects. These challenges have led to a surge in shelved developments, land sell-offs, and insolvencies within the sector. Projects like "The Riv," a 37-story condo tower planned for Toronto, have been canceled due to insufficient buyer interest and unsustainable pre-sale thresholds. These setbacks highlight a looming crisis in housing supply that could worsen the affordability challenges Canadians already face.Adding to the complexity, Oxford Economics projects that housing affordability will not return to reasonable levels until 2035. Their Housing Affordability Index, which evaluates factors like home prices, wages, and interest rates, reveals that homes were affordable between 2005 and 2020 but became increasingly unaffordable, peaking in 2023. While affordability has started to improve slightly, it remains far from sustainable. For many Canadians, the prospect of waiting more than a decade for improved affordability is daunting, particularly in historically expensive markets like Vancouver and Toronto.Recent data from StatsCan challenges the narrative that home flipping significantly contributes to housing unaffordability. In British Columbia, only 3% of properties were flipped within a year in 2021, with minimal impact on overall market prices. While flipping can influence price volatility in overheated markets, its role in Canada's broader housing crisis appears overstated. The core issue remains the chronic mismatch between housing supply and demand.This episode also explores the November Greater Vancouver real estate statistics, offering insights into market trends. While total sales decreased by 20% month-over-month, they were up 29% year-over-year, signaling a potential shift. Inventory dropped to a seven-month low, though it remains 26% above the ten-year average. Despite elevated inventory levels, prices in some categories have remained stable or even increased, reflecting the market's resilience.Looking ahead, the episode discusses the Bank of Canada's upcoming December meeting and the potential implications of a rate cut. While a reduction could stimulate an early spring market in 2025, questions persist about whether it would genuinely address affordability or merely fuel demand without resolving supply constraints. _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

This week in Canadian real estate, fresh GDP data revealed slower-than-expected economic growth. Canada's economy grew by 1% year-over-year in the third quarter, with GDP rising only 0.1% in September. On a per capita basis, GDP actually declined for the seventh consecutive quarter, reflecting further economic challenges. These weaker-than-anticipated numbers have shifted market expectations for a potential rate cut in December, with a 33% probability now placed on a 50-basis-point reduction. Despite these pressures, Canadians are saving at near-record levels! Household savings rate hitting 7.1% in Q3, as disposable income growth outpaced spending. This cautious approach reflects a broader sense of economic uncertainty and distrust in government policy as households prioritize financial stability amid ongoing volatility.However, alongside increased savings, Canadians are grappling with mounting debt and insolvencies. Credit card balances reached a record $110 billion in September, growing 9.7% year-over-year. Consumer insolvencies climbed 8.8% nationally and surged 18.4% in Ontario, returning to pre-pandemic levels. While not yet alarming, the pace of insolvency growth could escalate to financial crisis levels by 2025 if left unchecked. Meanwhile, the cost of housing remains a significant burden. Monthly mortgage payments for the typical home dropped slightly in October but remain up 90% compared to 2021 levels, with the average payment now sitting at $2,975—nearly double what it was just three years ago.In the mortgage market, both fixed and variable rates have seen modest declines from their 2024 peaks. Fixed rates currently average 4.4%, while variable rates are at 4.9%. These rates are expected to fall further, with markets projecting a bottom of 3% by mid-2025 as the Bank of Canada faces pressures from slowing inflation, weaker GDP, and economic risks such as Trump's proposed 25% tariffs. These tariffs could have a 2–3% negative impact on Canada's GDP, potentially driving the central bank to accelerate rate cuts to support the economy. Additionally, the rental market is poised to stabilize further, with new supply and slower population growth expected to ease inflationary pressures in housing over the next two years.Regionally, Vancouver's housing market continues to gain slight momentum. November sales are projected to rise 29% year-over-year, bringing activity closer to long-term 10-year averages. New listings, however, increased by just 10%, creating an environment where limited supply is supporting prices. Median prices climbed for the second month in a row, rising slightly by $5,000, while average prices jumped by $34,000. This contrasts sharply with the GTA, where new condo sales were down 91% compared to decade averages, and starts are forecasted to hit 20-year lows by 2025. While Toronto's challenges weigh on the broader market, Vancouver's resilience offers a glimmer of hope for Canadian real estate. Full November statistics will provide further clarity in the week ahead. _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

This week, we're examining how key economic indicators, policy changes, and market trends are influencing everything from interest rates to housing affordability. Inflation has officially returned to the Bank of Canada's 2% target, but what does this mean for the direction of interest rates heading into 2025? The Bank faces a delicate balancing act with inflation on target, GDP revisions upward, and the U.S. economy remaining strong. Projections suggest we'll see modest rate cuts early in the year, stabilizing at an overnight rate of 3% by March. Homeowners renewing mortgages in 2025 should plan accordingly, as this will still translate to higher payments compared to the historically low rates of recent years.On the international front, the potential effects of a Trump presidency loom large over Canada's economy. Historically, Canada has avoided recessions during periods of U.S. growth exceeding 2%, suggesting some economic resilience. Trump's focus on energy infrastructure could revive projects like the Keystone XL pipeline, boosting Alberta's energy sector, while a weak Canadian dollar might attract foreign investment into commercial real estate. Additionally, changes in U.S. immigration policy could prompt an influx of skilled workers into Canada, potentially offsetting recent adjustments to our own immigration targets.Closer to home, the housing market is facing mounting pressures. Despite ambitious governmental promises to build 3.9 million homes over the next seven years, housing starts have dropped sharply—down 12% nationwide and 30% in British Columbia year-over-year. Compounding this, delayed projects and developer insolvencies, like THIND's high-profile collapse, are exacerbating the supply crisis. THIND's troubles have halted thousands of planned units, underscoring the strain that rising interest rates are placing on even established developers. This ongoing shortfall in housing starts signals a grim future, with significant shortages expected in completions by 2027-2029.Mortgage renewals are another pressing issue, with 23% of all existing Canadian mortgages set to renew in 2025 and 31% in 2026—above the typical annual renewal rate of 20%. For Vancouver homeowners who locked in rates as low as 2% in 2020, the shift to today's rates could mean monthly payment increases of nearly 30%. However, the average 21% appreciation in home values over the past five years offers a potential safety net, allowing homeowners to downsize while preserving some equity and solvency.From inflation and interest rates to housing starts and developer challenges, this episode covers the critical issues shaping Canada's real estate future. Stay tuned as we break down what it all means for you, whether you're a homeowner, investor, or industry professional. _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

This week, six critical factors emerged that could significantly influence the Canadian housing market in the coming months. First, Statistics Canada revised GDP figures upward, adding 1.3% growth between 2021 and 2023, equivalent to an entire year of economic activity. While this suggests a stronger-than-expected economy, it complicates the Bank of Canada's recent rate-cutting strategy. Markets now anticipate a 0.25% rate cut in December, with a 60% chance of a larger 0.50% cut, which could stimulate housing demand.Second, the potential impact of Trump's proposed tariffs looms large. Should tariffs reach 10-20%, they could shrink Canada's GDP by up to 2%, reduce foreign investment, and deepen economic challenges. While lower growth may prompt further rate cuts, boosting housing sales and construction, broader economic instability could counteract these benefits.Meanwhile, rental rates have begun to drop, with a 1.2% national year-over-year decline—the first in years. Vancouver and Toronto saw the steepest drops, at 8.4% and 9.2%, respectively. This shift is driven by record condo completions, slowing population growth, and renters reaching affordability limits. Although rents remain 29% higher than three years ago, the decline provides some relief to tenants.In the U.S., inflation ticked up to 2.6% in October, its first monthly increase in six months, prompting markets to price in rate cuts from both the Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada this December. Lower borrowing costs could invigorate the housing market, setting up for a strong spring in 2025.October also saw a surge in national home sales, with Toronto leading the way with a 44% year-over-year increase. This spike is largely attributed to pent-up demand and renewed consumer confidence driven by expectations of lower interest rates. Early November data suggests this trend is continuing, pointing to a robust spring market ahead.Finally, a potential “mortgage war” is brewing as 50% of Canadian mortgages are set to renew in the next two years. With new rules allowing borrowers to switch lenders without requalifying, competition among banks is expected to intensify. Savvy homeowners stand to save tens of thousands of dollars by shopping for better rates, making it crucial to prepare for these opportunities now. _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

In October, Vancouver's real estate market exhibited mixed signals. Despite a continued decline in home prices, with the benchmark HPI dropping for the fifth consecutive month by 0.6%, a surprising surge in sales emerged. Total sales jumped 43% from September and 32% year-over-year, marking October 2024 as the third-highest sales month of the year and the most active October since 2021. Experts suggest that the rate cuts so far, combined with optimism for further reductions, may have spurred buyers back into the market. This sentiment sharply contrasts with 2022 when rising interest rates deterred buyers.The recent U.S. election results, with Trump securing the presidency, bring significant economic implications for Canada. Key among these is the potential for new tariffs on Canadian imports to the U.S., which could add $30 billion in economic costs, with Canadian manufacturing and consumer prices bearing the brunt. This inflationary impact could strain housing affordability, as higher import costs would drive up construction expenses, potentially limiting new builds and pushing home prices higher. To counter these risks, the Bank of Canada might reduce rates further, which could increase Canadian homebuyers' purchasing power but also encourage some to enter the market amid potential economic downturns. Affordable housing targets in Canadian cities like Ottawa and West Vancouver face substantial setbacks due to escalating construction costs and financing issues. Ottawa has fallen short of its 500-unit annual goal every year since 2020, citing a funding gap of $931 million and a 150% increase in construction costs since 2021. West Vancouver also anticipates falling short of provincial targets, estimating that only 58 affordable units will be built in 2024—well below the province's target of 220. This affordability gap points to ongoing challenges for both public and private sectors, with limited options for expanding affordable housing despite rising demand.The “17 Villages” initiative in Vancouver seeks to create a gentler approach to housing density, adding low-rise residential buildings, townhouses, and multiplexes within 400 meters of established retail streets. This feels like a European-inspired model that will anchor neighborhoods with walkable retail and community amenities, allowing young professionals and families to stay in these areas at potentially lower costs. Unlike high-rise developments, these “villages” aim to enhance neighborhood character, create small business opportunities, and offer diverse housing options without dramatically altering community aesthetics.Touching on the October stats, Vancouver's real estate inventory fell by 7% month-over-month to a five-month low but remains 25% higher than last October and 26% above the 10-year average. With over 5,400 new listings—a 17% annual increase—the market has seen an influx of choices for buyers, while inventory is the highest for October since 2014. The sales-to-active listings ratio rose back to 19%, with townhomes and apartments now moving into seller's market territory. Detached homes saw a slight uptick in demand, but overall, the market remains balanced, favoring neither buyers nor sellers strongly. _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

In a climate of economic turbulence, Canada's economy is showing signs of a downturn that could significantly affect Vancouver's real estate market. The Bank of Canada recently reduced its interest rate by 50 basis points, following weaker-than-expected inflation and a rise in business insolvencies. While these rate cuts may offer mortgage relief, they're also weakening the Canadian dollar, which has hit a 20-year low against the U.S. dollar, potentially increasing imported inflation as time goes on. Meanwhile, Canadian GDP has remained stagnant, with annual growth forecasts now below 1%, well below the anticipated 2.8%. This slower growth could prompt further rate cuts as the Bank seeks to stimulate the economy.Employment trends are also concerning, especially among young men, with unemployment for this demographic rising sharply, indicating possible downward pressure on inflation. We touch on declining sales in manufacturing and a troubling inventory-to-sales ratio that's been further emphasized by the challenges facing Canada's economy.Housing offers a mixed picture: as mortgage payments drop and rates fall, consumer confidence is on the move up. Sales volumes are expected to increase next year by 10%-20%, but the government's recent immigration cuts could also reduce that demand, especially for rentals. The new targets project significant reductions in Canada's temporary resident population, potentially leading to Canada's first-ever years of negative population growth, impacting GDP, tax revenues, and the housing sector's stability. This would be a first for Canada after non-permanent residents hit an all-time high of 3 million people. The Vancouver housing market stands to be directly affected. Dropping interest rates may ease some home-buying pressures, but declining immigration and job losses in construction and housing services could lead to a long-term housing shortage and potential tax increases as governments try to offset reduced revenues. For buyers and renters alike, this evolving economic landscape could spell both opportunities and challenges, making it a crucial topic for those involved in Vancouver real estate.Also, we are welcoming your questions!! With these complex dynamics at play, what questions do you have about the market or where you find yourself today? Message us directly or post them in the comment section below, and we'll provide informed insights in next week's episode! _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

In this episode, the podcast hosts dive into one of the most transformative housing policies in British Columbia's recent history—the Small Scale Multi-Unit Housing Initiative, introduced under Bill C44. This policy marks a significant shift in how housing developments are approached, aiming to address the critical shortage of homes in the Lower Mainland by automatically rezoning single-family and duplex lots to allow for higher-density developments. By opening up these properties for multi-unit construction, the policy seeks to tackle the housing crisis, create new investment opportunities, and provide much-needed jobs in the construction industry.However, the initiative has sparked heated debate. While it promises to inject new housing stock into the "missing middle" market, not all stakeholders are on board. Many neighborhoods have adopted a Not In My Backyard (NIMBY) stance, pushing back against the increased density and potential changes to their community dynamics. Some municipalities have leveraged the policy to increase Development Cost Charges (DCCs) and Amenity Contribution Charges (ACCs), which could make the process more expensive for developers, adding layers of complexity to what seems like a streamlined solution.To unpack the real opportunities and challenges presented by this policy, we are joined by James Livingston, founder of Lightwell Developments. As someone deeply embedded in the development space, James offers listeners a rare behind-the-scenes look at how companies like his are capitalizing on the deregulation. His firm specializes in working with homeowners who might not have the knowledge or the capital resources to redevelop their property on their own. James explains how Lightwell's business model allows these homeowners to partner with developers by turning their properties into multi-unit dwellings and potentially earning more than they would through a traditional home sale—without the hassle of open houses, showings, or putting their home on the market.The episode then shifts to the criteria Lightwell Developments uses when scouting properties. James breaks down what makes a lot ideal for redevelopment, from its size and location to zoning regulations and municipal cooperation. The discussion moves beyond the homeowner's perspective to explore the broader market implications of the Small Scale Multi-Unit Housing Initiative. While many developers, architects, and investors are enthusiastic about the changes, some argue that the policy doesn't go far enough to meet future density demands. James provides his take on the policy's strengths and limitations, discussing whether it can truly solve the housing crisis or if more drastic measures are needed to fulfill Metro Vancouver's long-term housing requirements.To round out the conversation, the episode addresses another key audience—INVESTORS who may not own property but want to invest capital. James outlines the financial mechanics of investing in his multi-unit development fund, from expected returns to minimum investment amounts and typical timeframes. He provides insights into how this growing sector offers attractive opportunities for investors looking to diversify their portfolios and tap into the high demand for new housing in the region. _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

Inflation has cooled down, with a rise of just 1.6% in September, significantly lower than August's 2.0%. Outside of the COVID-era disruptions, this marks the lowest inflation figure in 5.5 years, dating back to February 2019. Back then, the overnight rate was 1.75%, 2.5 basis points lower than today's rate. The drop in shelter costs, which dipped from 5.3% to 5.0%, contributed to this inflation slowdown. However, the Bank of Canada's core inflation measure, which excludes volatile components, remained steady at 2.3%.What's striking is that this inflation print came in below market expectations of 1.8%, significantly reshaping interest rate forecasts. Analysts are now predicting a 70% chance of a 50 basis point (bps) rate cut at the BoC's meeting on Wednesday, with a further 25 bps reduction anticipated for December. If this scenario unfolds, the overnight rate could end 2024 at 3.5%, and markets expect it to drop to 2.5% by October 2025. Such a drastic forecast has led many mortgage brokers to advise clients to consider variable-rate mortgages, anticipating a steady decline in rates over the coming year.At present, the BoC's overnight rate stands at 4.25%, about 150-200 basis points above what is considered neutral. Given the state of inflation and a rising unemployment rate, there seems to be little reason for the BoC to delay a rate cut on Wednesday. This could also alleviate some of the pressure on Canada's bond market which has been feeling the strain from high rates, though the Canadian dollar will be the sacrificial lamb.  Housing starts in Canada have taken a significant hit, dropping 16% year-over-year (y/y). In Vancouver, this trend is even more pronounced, with a 23% decline in year-to-date housing starts. Toronto fares even worse, with condo starts down by 70% y/y, marking a three-year low. With a rolling 12-month condo pre-sale figure of just 6,000 units—an all-time low—developers are pulling back hard on new construction. With construction costs still high and no immediate relief in sight, this reduction in supply is likely to exacerbate Canada's already tight housing market in the long term.Another worrying trend is the increasing number of business closures. Last month, Canada saw a 1% drop in active businesses, the largest month-over-month (m/m) decline since the pandemic. The number of active businesses fell from 938,000 to 929,000, with construction companies leading the exodus—643 construction businesses shut down in September alone. This points to a broader economic slowdown, particularly in the housing sector, which is reliant on steady construction activity. New business openings also hit a four-year low, signaling reduced optimism among entrepreneurs.All eyes are now on the BoC's rate decision on Wednesday. With inflation easing and housing construction slowing dramatically, a rate cut seems increasingly likely. However, businesses are still struggling, and new policies may be needed to stimulate growth and prevent further economic downturns. The BoC's decision will set the tone for the remainder of 2024, and possibly 2025, as Canada navigates these uncertain times. _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

With the election just one week away, housing remains a pivotal issue for voters across Canada. This week, we take a close look at the New Democratic Party's (NDP) housing policy, following last week's review of the Conservative Party's platform. The NDP's 66-page action plan is packed with ambitious goals, focusing primarily on improving affordability for first-time buyers. One of their key initiatives allows first-time homebuyers to pay only 60% of a home's price upfront, with the remaining 40% deferred until the home is sold or 25 years have passed. This program also offers government-backed supplementary financing, making it easier for Canadians to enter the market. In addition, the Attainable Housing Initiative (AHI) seeks to ease the burden of market-priced homes by funding 40% of the costs for 25,000 new units, particularly on Indigenous lands.While the NDP's proposals aim to increase access to housing, they do little to address the root cause of the affordability crisis—soaring home prices. For example, even with the government's assistance, buying a $620,000 studio or a $1.3 million two-bedroom unit in Vancouver remains daunting. Some argue that the plan, while helpful for thousands of families, fails to lower the overall cost of homes, especially in cities like Vancouver, where prices are already hugely inflated compared to other North American markets. The NDP's strategy is focused on making market-priced homes more accessible, but it doesn't tackle the larger issue of the unsustainable growth in housing costs.In other housing-related news, the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) has announced a new policy that allows homeowners to add suites to their properties with up to 90% loan-to-value financing, set to launch in 2025. This move is part of an effort to increase housing density, but with a $2 million property value cap, its impact may be limited in high-cost areas. Meanwhile, rental rates have fluctuated across the country, with notable decreases in cities like Vancouver and Burnaby, while places like Quebec City and Saskatoon saw rent increases. Mortgage arrears are also on the rise, hitting 0.2% nationwide, the highest since May 2021, signaling growing financial pressures on homeowners.Speaking more to rental rates, they have shown significant decreases across several major Canadian cities. Vancouver saw an 11% drop year-over-year for both one- and two-bedroom units, and Burnaby registered similar declines. However, Quebec City and Saskatoon experienced price hikes, with one-bedroom rents rising by 22%. This fluctuation in rental prices suggests that affordability issues continue to evolve across different regions, with some areas benefiting from decreased demand while others face rising costs.As housing continues to be a central concern for many Canadians, both the NDP and Conservative platforms offer paths toward improved accessibility. However, neither party has yet introduced a comprehensive plan to lower home prices significantly. Voters must weigh whether these measures—focused on providing access rather than addressing affordability at its core—are sufficient in tackling Canada's housing crisis as they prepare to cast their ballots. Tune in and find out how we feel about the NDP platform. _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

With the BC provincial election approaching on October 19th, housing policy has become a focal point for both major parties—the NDP and the Conservatives. Each party has released its housing platform, but the Conservative Party's approach has sparked significant debate due to its "ambitious" tax-cut promises and plans to further streamline housing development.The Conservatives introduced the "Rustad Rebate," a tax cut that exempts rent, mortgage interest, and strata fees from BC income tax, starting at $1,500/month in 2026 and increasing to $3,000/month by 2029. While this would save a typical BC taxpayer around $105/month in its first year, critics argue that this rebate is a token gesture that does little to tackle the root causes of the housing affordability crisis.A standout promise is to drastically shorten the permit approval process, with a 6-month window for rezoning and 3 months for building permits. However, we have concerns over whether the province has the resources and expertise to enforce these timelines across multiple municipalities, particularly when recent efforts by Vancouver's Mayor Ken Sim have shown limited success in expediting permits under a similar framework.Here are the Conservative Proposals in Brief:1. Rustad Rebate: Offers BC residents tax deductions for housing expenses, but savings are marginal compared to soaring housing costs.2. Permit Approval Timelines: Promises to expedite housing approvals but lacks clarity on implementation and enforcement.3. Repeal of NDP Regulations: Aims to remove certain building codes that allegedly increase construction costs but provides no detailed analysis.4. Support Transit-Oriented Communities: Emphasizes building complete communities near transit hubs, but developers already incorporate these elements without government mandates. So..?5. Infrastructure Fund: Proposes a $1 billion annual fund for municipalities, yet doesn't address the revenue shortfall from proposed tax cuts. Where is the money coming from?September Market StatsThe latest market data for September is out and its status quo in the housing market as prices continue to drop. Key highlights include:The benchmark price dropped for the 4th month in a row, down 1.4% month-over-month and 7% below the peak in April 2022. At $925,000, the median price fell by $20,000, marking a total drop of $70,000 over four months.Despite rising inventory levels, buyer sentiment remains cautious as quality listings are limited. With election day approaching, it remains to be seen if either party's housing plan can reverse this trend and provide relief to struggling homeowners and prospective buyers alike._________________________________ Connect With Us To Talk Real Estate:

This week's discussion focuses on the current state of the housing market and its central role in the upcoming provincial election. With housing affordability and availability at critical levels, this issue has become a focal point for voters and policymakers. We'll break down the latest developments, key political stances, and potential implications for homeowners and prospective buyers. The provincial election is just around the corner, and it's no surprise that housing has emerged as the primary battleground. After decades of underbuilding, BC finds itself facing a severe housing shortage, with estimates indicating a shortfall of hundreds of thousands of homes. The current party in power, the NDP, has attempted to address this issue through various initiatives, such as the Missing Middle Policy and Transit-Oriented Area (TOA) regulations. These measures aim to increase density by allowing for multiplex units on single-family lots and permitting high-rise developments up to 20 stories near transit hubs.However, the path to achieving these goals is anything but straightforward. While the province has pushed these initiatives forward, many municipalities have been resistant. Cities like Langley, West Vancouver, and North Vancouver have outright rejected the Missing Middle reforms, opting to maintain lower density levels despite provincial pressure. Even in cities that have embraced the policy, such as Richmond and New Westminster, restrictive Floor Space Ratio (FSR) limits have made it economically unfeasible for developers to build larger multi-family homes, leaving the intended impact on housing supply minimal at best. Burnaby, on the other hand, has adopted the provincial rules and has positioned itself as a more builder-friendly environment. However, increased municipal fees have made margins razor-thin for developers, which dampens the enthusiasm for new projects. This lack of alignment between provincial aspirations and municipal realities has resulted in an unattractive building environment, hampering the overall effectiveness of these policies. To further complicate matters, the leader of the BC Conservative Party, John Rustad, has voiced strong opposition to the Missing Middle and TOAH reforms, labeling them as “crazy,” “authoritarian,” and “hardcore socialist.” He has vowed to repeal these initiatives if his party comes to power, which would potentially undo years of planning and hundreds of building permit applications that have been submitted to bring much-needed housing to the market.In regulatory news, the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) announced this week that it will be easing stress test requirements for homeowners looking to renew their mortgages. The new policy, which goes into effect on November 21st, allows homeowners to do a straight switch to a new lender without undergoing the stress test, provided they are not looking to extend their mortgage's amortization period.We finish up this weeks episode with a quick look into how the housing market performed in September as we tee up next weeks stats episode.  _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

This week has been monumental for Vancouver's real estate market, with several key factors influencing housing and the broader economic landscape. Inflation has officially hit 2%, marking a significant milestone for the Bank of Canada (BOC) as it reaches its target for the first time in nearly four years. While the broader inflation rate stands at 2%, if the mortgage interest component is excluded, inflation would be just 0.9%, signaling a rapid decline in core inflation metrics. However, rental inflation remains elevated at 8.6%, though this is expected to decrease in the coming months as rent prices have been falling for about a year, potentially pushing inflation even lower. As a result, markets are now pricing in rate cuts at every BOC meeting until at least the summer of 2025, with an estimated 1.75 basis points reduction by July 2025. The five-year bond, crucial for mortgage rates, is now trending downward at 2.7%, the lowest in over two years.On Wednesday, the U.S. Federal Reserve made a notable move by cutting its benchmark interest rate by half a percentage point, the first such reduction in over four years. This marks a shift from controlling inflation to supporting a slowing labor market. The Fed's decision to lower rates from 5.3% to 4.8% signals a major adjustment as inflation in the U.S. has fallen from a peak of 9.1% in mid-2022 to 2.5% in August, aligning closely with the Fed's 2% target. Policymakers have indicated further cuts this year, with more anticipated in 2025 and 2026. Adding to the shake-up, the federal government of Canada announced that it will increase the price cap for insured mortgages from $1 million to $1.5 million, a surprise to both the industry and policymakers. While many in the real estate sector championed the change, it's important to examine who this adjustment really benefits. Although extending the amortization period to 30 years from 25 years helps reduce monthly payments by about 9%, it also increases the long-term interest paid by homebuyers, with an additional $80,000 paid over the life of a mortgage. More critically, this move likely pushes the price band of homes in this range up by 9%, doing little to address affordability. Historically, the CMHC was designed to help veterans and lower-income buyers, but this increase will likely push prices higher, benefiting banks and investors more than first-time homebuyers. With the minimum down payment on a $1.5 million home being $125,000, this policy change seems to cater more to affluent buyers, as only 15% of Canadian households could qualify for such a mortgage. Despite these hurdles, this adjustment will create more demand in the $1 million to $1.5 million price band, potentially driving prices higher, which contradicts the notion of increasing affordability.This week's developments reflect the complex and often contradictory forces shaping the Vancouver real estate market. Inflation is cooling, but rate cuts are on the horizon, and new policies, like the increase in the insured mortgage cap, seem to be helping banks more than first-time homebuyers. Housing starts are down, and developers are grappling with higher fees, all while household debt continues to climb. The fall real estate market in Vancouver appears to be on shaky ground, and without significant changes to housing policy or economic conditions, the outlook remains uncertain. _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

In this episode, we dive into one of the most significant housing policy changes in British Columbia's history: the Small Scale Multi-Unit Housing (SSMUH) legislation and the province-wide densification of single-family home lots - but this time, with 3 different Architectural firms. This is likely the largest rezoning initiative we'll witness in our lifetimes, and with such a massive shift comes a lot of uncertainty. What does this mean for housing affordability, development timelines, and the future of our cities?To help unpack these complex topics, we are joined by leading voices from three prominent architectural firms in BC, all members of the FIELD COLLECTIVE, a collaborative group of small architecture practices. Together, they will share their insights on the SSMUH initiative, its implications for housing design, and how their industry is responding to these new policies.Our guests today include Tony from TOAD Design, Jenny and David from 2 by 2, and Daichi from Bobo Arch. We'll hear about their personal journeys in architecture, as well as how their firms are navigating this new legislative landscape.One of the central issues of this conversation revolves around the province's recent introduction of pre-approved housing designs. These designs are intended to streamline the development process, cutting down on costly and lengthy permitting times. But will this initiative actually drive down housing costs? Or could it result in more uniform, less site-specific designs that lack creativity and adaptability? Tony, Jenny, David, and Daichi will explore whether these pre-approved models offer real solutions or if they're just another example of top-down policy lacking industry consultation.Finally, we'll get a preview of PLEX APPEAL, an open-air exhibition organized by the FIELD COLLECTIVE as part of the upcoming Design Vancouver Festival. This event will showcase innovative designs enabled by the new multiplex zoning rules, offering the public a firsthand look at what the future of housing in BC could look like.Tune in to this episode for an insightful conversation on one of the most pressing topics in housing today. Learn how the SSMUH legislation and pre-approved designs could reshape the real estate landscape, and gain valuable insights from some of the brightest minds in BC's architecture community. Plus, get all the details on PLEX APPEAL, and find out how you can attend this exciting event later this month!—  Plex Appeal ExhibitionSeptember 28 - 29, 2024Main & 21st Public Plazawww.plexappeal.ca—  Tony Osborn, Architect AIBC, MRAIC, LEED APTony Osborn Architecture + Design Inc.#203 - 119 W Pender St, Vancouver BC  V6B 1S5o 604 283 5877 x100m 604 363 3790tony@toad.design__ David TylArchitect AIBCCo-FounderTwobytwo Architecture Studiomobile: 604.317.7715david@twobytwo.cawww.twobytwo.caThe C4X project: www.twobytwo.ca/c4xInstagram: @twobytwostudio__ Daichi YamashitaArchitect AIBC | Passive House DesignerBobo Architecture | www.boboarch.ca604-440-1374instagram.com/bobo_architecture/  _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

In the first week of September, the Vancouver real estate market received an update that reflects significant shifts. August numbers reveal that home prices have dropped even further, with detached homes now firmly in a buyer's market—a term seldom used in Vancouver. Compounding this, the Bank of Canada (BOC) cut interest rates for the third time, and all indicators point to more cuts ahead. As we move into the traditionally active Fall market, many wonder if September will mark a turning point, leading to a rebound in prices, or if the downward trend will continue throughout 2024.A closer look at the BOC's rate cut decision reveals that inflation has eased, with recent data showing inflation at a 40-month low. The central bank has reiterated its goal of bringing inflation down to 2%, and Governor Tiff Macklem's dovish comments suggest that additional cuts are likely if economic data continues to support them. The financial markets have already priced in another 25-basis-point rate cut in October and a full reduction by December.Interestingly, the BOC acknowledged the upward pressure on inflation from housing and shelter costs, even though national trends show rental rates and home prices have been falling for months. As these lagging indicators catch up, inflation is expected to ease further. Macklem also hinted that while inflation may drop, housing prices could begin to rise again as interest rates fall and market activity strengthens.Bond markets have also responded to the recent rate cut, with the Canadian five-year bond dropping to an 18-month low of 2.84%, signaling that fixed mortgage rates could follow suit in the coming weeks. Additionally, contrary to expectations, the Canadian dollar has strengthened against the U.S. dollar following the cuts—a potential signal that the U.S. Federal Reserve might also be gearing up to reduce rates at their upcoming September meeting.Turning to Vancouver's August real estate statistics, the market saw continued slow sales with a total of 1,896 transactions, marking a 17% year-over-year decline and a 23% drop from July. This represents the fourth consecutive month of falling sales, making August 2023 one of the weakest on record. The sales-to-active listings ratio sits at 14%, down 3% from last month and marking the fifth monthly decline in a row. We use this metric to determine if we are in a Buyers or Sellers' market. Detached homes are seeing a ratio of just 9%, deep in buyers' market territory. Meanwhile, the MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) recorded its third consecutive monthly decline, down 0.2% month-over-month and 0.9% year-over-year, bringing the benchmark price to $1,195,900.While the median price has fallen to $945,000 and the average price to $1,252,000—both back to January 2024 levels—the HPI remains a more stable indicator, smoothing out some of the month-to-month volatility.As we head into Fall, the big question remains: will inventory continue to rise as sales volumes decrease, as seen after the previous rate cuts, or will the market stabilize? With 1,050 new listings and 205 sales recorded in the first two business days of September, the upcoming weeks will be critical in determining the trajectory for the rest of the year. _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

As inflation reaches its lowest level in over three years, the Bank of Canada's (BOC) rate cut predictions are becoming increasingly aggressive. While this might be a relief for mortgage holders, it signals significant economic distress. The BOC may need to cut rates rapidly to prevent a potential global financial crisis (GFC)-level event, but the question remains: will these cuts come fast enough to stabilize the economy?This economic uncertainty is having profound effects on the Vancouver real estate market. August data shows falling prices, a trend that has continued for three consecutive months. With the five-year bond yield dropping to a 17-month low, and fixed mortgage rates expected to decline further, the affordability of Vancouver homes remains a challenge, though slightly more attainable. This is particularly relevant as the fall market approaches with high inventory levels, potentially prompting some buyers to enter the market, sensing a brighter housing landscape than in the past two years.Mortgage holders approaching renewal in the next 24 months might find relief as rates are likely to be lower than when the overnight rate peaked at 5%. The so-called "renewal cliff" may not be as daunting as once feared. Since June 2023, approximately one million mortgages have been obtained or renewed, and many of these could now be renewed at lower rates, a trend that will likely continue as rate cuts are anticipated in the coming months.However, the broader economic outlook remains troubling. Building permits are plummeting, with significant drops in single-family and multi-family permits across Canada, particularly in Ontario and British Columbia. This decline could lead to future housing shortages if sustained, as new home sales have already hit record lows, particularly in Toronto, where sales are 70% below the 10-year average.The mortgage market is also showing signs of strain, with a 15% year-over-year drop in originations in June, though it's too early to determine if this is a trend. The growth rate of new mortgages remains consistent but below the growth in household income, which may keep regulatory bodies like OSFI satisfied. Fixed-rate mortgages remain popular, though variable rates are starting to see an uptick as future rate cuts loom.Consumer sentiment is low, with the Consumer Confidence Index lingering in the 60s, a level typically seen before a recession. Rising insolvencies, both consumer and business, coupled with declining consumer spending, add to the financial uncertainty many are feeling.The rapid population growth driven by immigration is also a contentious issue. The government's recent actions to slow this growth, particularly by restricting low-wage temporary foreign workers (TFWs) and reducing permanent resident targets, reflect the strain on housing, jobs, and public services caused by this influx. This policy shift comes after a period of extreme measures, such as massive overnight rate hikes and a quadrupling of immigration rates, which have contributed to the current economic challenges.Finally, rising building costs, exacerbated by new import tariffs on steel from China, further complicate the housing affordability issue. These tariffs, set to take effect in October, will likely push home prices higher, despite government rhetoric about making housing more affordable. _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

In this insightful episode, we sit down with Mychal Ferrera from the Bank of Montreal to discuss the latest trends and forecasts in the real estate and mortgage markets. We dive deep into the current market climate, exploring whether the industry is picking up momentum or if the market is still stagnant. Mychal provides an insider's perspective on what's happening on the ground, giving listeners a clear understanding of the market's temperature.We also tackle the highly anticipated rate cut expectations for September. Mychal shares BMO's forecast on the Bank of Canada's likely moves and discusses the potential impact of rate cuts in the U.S. on Canadian markets. This leads to a broader discussion on whether buyers and sellers should continue to wait for better rates or take action now.With the economy facing challenges such as rising unemployment, slowing GDP, and recent changes to the capital gains tax, we discuss the increasing levels of arrears, defaults, and corporate insolvencies. Mychal provides valuable insights into how these economic shifts are affecting homeowners in Vancouver—whether they are restructuring their debt, finding ways to pay their mortgages, or, in some cases, being forced to sell.As we look ahead, we delve into the debate between variable and fixed mortgage rates. Mychal shares what's currently more popular among homeowners and offers his expert recommendation on which option might be best, considering the possibility of lower rates in the coming 18 months.We also take a look at the pre-sale market, how to protect yourself against rising interest rates by getting a rate hold through the Bank of Montreal for up to 3 years to ensure rates don't surprise you upon completion. We round out the discussion with an exploration of whether Canada is on the brink of a recession and whether the Bank of Montreal expects us to fall into a recession or not what that could mean for the housing market.Whether you're a homeowner, a prospective buyer, or simply interested in the latest economic trends, this episode is packed with actionable insights. Tune in to hear our discussion with Mychal Ferrera's expert advice and learn how to navigate the current market conditions. _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

In this episode, we sit down and revisit the rapidly shifting rental market landscape with returning guest Keaton Bessy, Property Manager and Owner of Greater Vancouver Tenant and Property Management (GVANTPM). The last time Keaton joined the show 8 months ago, rental rates were steadily increasing month after month, with no signs of slowing down. However, the market has since undergone significant changes. A surge in inventory, elevated rental rates, the banning of Airbnb in secondary properties, and recent modifications to residential tenancy laws have collectively reshaped the market dynamics. Keaton dives into the differences between what we are reading compared to his on-the-ground insights into these developments.The discussion begins with a market overview, highlighting that while rental rates remain high, Vancouver and Ontario have seen a notable softening year over year. Despite this, Vancouver continues to be the most expensive rental market in Canada, with the average rent for a one-bedroom apartment down 8.4% sitting just over $2,750 a month and a two-bedroom down 6.4% from last year but still well above $3,650. The discussion explores what could be causing a drop in the rental market and whether this softening is a result of a recent surge in inventory, a rise in unemployment figures, or if it is influenced by broader government policy decisions.The conversation then shifts to the impact of immigration on the rental market. With a record 1.2 million person year-over-year increase in Canada's population, primarily driven by non-permanent residents, we examine whether the current softening of rental rates is a temporary blip or indicative of a longer-term stabilization trend. Keaton shares his views on whether these immigration trends will continue to apply upward pressure on rental prices and inventory.The episode also touches on the dynamics of the mortgage market, where rising mortgage originations and potentially lower carrying costs are discussed. The hosts question whether these factors might lead to a future decrease in rental rates or if available inventory levels will continue to play a more significant role in determining rent prices.Lastly, and perhaps most interestingly we delve into a recent and controversial ruling by the Residential Tenancy Branch (RTB) in Vancouver, which approved a 23.5% rent increase over the next two years for a local landlord. This decision has sparked widespread attention capturing more than 325,000 views in just a couple of days, and Keaton, who broke the story has been closely monitoring the situation and provides an in-depth analysis of the ruling and its potential implications for both landlords and tenants in Vancouver. Throughout the episode, you will gain a comprehensive understanding of the evolving rental market and what these changes mean for property owners and renters alike. _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

The Bank of Canada (BoC) has recently undergone a significant shift in its monetary policy focus. Over the past two years, the central bank aggressively hiked interest rates to combat soaring inflation. These efforts have largely paid off, as inflation has been brought under control. However, this success has come at a cost—economic growth has been throttled, leading to rising unemployment and a surge in business insolvencies. Recognizing the need to pivot, the BoC is now shifting its priorities from solely fighting inflation to supporting economic recovery. The forecast for interest rates is now tilted towards cuts, with expectations of a pronounced decrease over the next two years. Mortgage rates are also anticipated to decline in tandem, offering some relief to homeowners renewing their mortgages during this period.As the BoC prepares to cut rates, it's essential to understand the implications for the mortgage market and the broader economy. The conversation has moved from concerns about inflation to worries about economic stability. Despite two years of rate hikes, the mortgage arrears rate has seen only a modest increase, from a low of 0.14% to 0.19% in May. Historically, arrears tend to rise after interest rate cuts begin, and this pattern is likely to repeat as the economy grapples with higher unemployment. However, even if arrears rates double, they would still be within long-term averages. The close correlation between unemployment and arrears suggests that as unemployment rises, so will arrears, though it may take a year or more before rate cuts start to reverse this trend.The broader economic landscape is also undergoing shifts. Canada's population growth remains strong, driven largely by non-permanent residents, who account for the majority of the increase. In the second quarter of 2024, the country saw a record 1.2 million year-over-year population growth, slightly higher than the first quarter. However, there's growing debate about whether this level of immigration is sustainable, with some arguing that the current rate is too high. Immigration has now become a more pressing issue in Canada than even climate change, with half of Canadians believing that the country is accepting too many newcomers. The government has set a mandate to reduce the number of non-permanent residents, but achieving this goal may prove challenging.In the mortgage market, originations are on the rise, surpassing levels seen from 2016 to 2019. Three and four-year fixed-rate mortgages remain the most popular choice among borrowers. Most mortgage renewals will take place in 2025 and 2026, at a time when the overnight rate is expected to be around 3%, a manageable level for those who took out mortgages when rates were near 0.25%. National housing inventory, while up from its 2021 low of 90,000, remains below long-term averages, with no signs of a dramatic increase in listings. Alberta and Saskatchewan are the only provinces where inventory is trending down, while others are seeing a gradual rise. As we move into the fall market, with rate cuts on the horizon and stable conditions, a balanced housing market is expected to continue for the remainder of 2024. _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

This week has brought significant developments to the Vancouver real estate market, with major changes both locally and internationally that are poised to impact buyers and sellers alike. The Federal Reserve held its key interest rate steady, but signaled potential rate cuts as early as September due to a cooling job market and easing inflation. This announcement, coupled with disappointing U.S. job growth and a rising unemployment rate, has led to market volatility. The Sahm Rule, which predicts a recession when the unemployment rate rises by 0.5 percentage points within a year, has been triggered, adding to fears of an economic downturn. As a result, markets are now pricing in U.S. rate cuts below 4% over the next 12 months, which could open the door for similar or more aggressive reductions in Canada in 2024.Locally, the B.C. government's abrupt reversal of newly enacted tenancy laws has caused further uncertainty, broken trust and further aggravated landlord/tenant relationships. Originally, the law extended the notice period for vacating tenanted properties from two to four months, but widespread backlash from the real estate industry & the general public prompted a quick amendment to three months. Adding to the complexity, the Federal government introduced 30-year amortizations for first-time home buyers (FTHB) on August 1, with the intention of making homeownership more affordable. However, while monthly payments might be lower, the total interest paid over the life of the mortgage will be higher, effectively increasing costs for buyers. This policy, like previous initiatives, appears to have been implemented with little consultation and may benefit Banks more than homebuyers - or anyone for that matter. The impact on the market remains to be seen, but it is clear that such measures are more about political optics than providing meaningful relief. At the same time, Canadians are grappling with an increasingly burdensome tax environment, with 47% of income now going toward taxes—more than what is spent on shelter, food, and clothing combined. This high tax burden makes it difficult for many to save for a down payment or enter the housing market, exacerbating the challenges facing potential homebuyers.The latest real estate statistics for July indicate a softening market in Vancouver. Average home prices dropped by $60,000, and total sales were 5% below both the previous month and the same time last year, marking the third consecutive month of declining sales. The market appears to be grinding to a halt, with buyers hesitating due to high costs and economic uncertainty. New listings also decreased for the third month in a row, although overall inventory remains high, particularly for detached homes, which are now at a five-year high. Overall, the Vancouver real estate market is entering a more conservative phase, characterized by slowing sales, high inventory, and softening prices. With economic uncertainty and a high cost of living, many potential buyers are holding off, waiting for clearer signs of stability or more favorable conditions. As the market adjusts to these recent developments, both buyers and sellers will need to navigate a complex and rapidly changing landscape. _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

The economic landscape in both the US and Canada is showing significant shifts that have important implications for homeowners, the housing market, and the broader economy. Recently, the Bank of Canada (BoC) made a notable move by cutting interest rates by 0.25%, hinting at further cuts to come. This action aligns with market expectations, with a cumulative 0.5% cut so far and forward guidance pointing to an additional 0.50% reduction, potentially ending 2024 at a 4% rate. This decrease from 5% to 4% has offered some relief to variable mortgage rate holders. For instance, a $500,000 mortgage would see monthly payments drop from $2,684 to $2,387, a substantial annual saving of $3,600 or about 12%.In the United States, inflation has eased from 3.3% to 3%, primarily due to lower consumer spending, raising the likelihood of a rate cut in September by 85.7%. The Federal Reserve has maintained a 5.5% rate for 12 months, a full 100 basis points higher than Canada's current rate. As both countries trend towards lower inflation, the sentiment grows that inflation is under control, with a path to 2% inflation expected within a year, accompanied by gradual rate cuts potentially ending at 3% by late 2025.However, the housing market's health is nuanced. While mortgage originations are increasing, signaling a potential recovery, several key metrics still require careful consideration. In Canada, rental market dynamics are shifting significantly. The recent CPI print showed an 8.5% year-over-year increase in rent, though the month-over-month increase was the lowest in two years, influenced by a record number of rental completions. There are currently 140,000 rental units in the construction pipeline, expected to add 6% more rental stock nationally and 15% in British Columbia over the next two years. This surge in supply might alleviate high rental rates, but challenges persist as private investors shy away from rental investments due to new policies. For instance, Bosa recently halted two purpose-built rental towers due to financial unfeasibility driven by new amenity cost charges and revised development cost charges.Housing starts have been declining steadily for three years, with new starts down 9% nationally in June to 241,000, below expectations of 255,000. Building permit applications also dropped 12% in May, indicating potential future supply constraints. In British Columbia, permits fell 53% month-over-month, partly due to a rush to secure favorable CMHC financing before regulatory changes.Despite these challenges, there are signs of stabilization. Mortgage originations rose 0.3% month-over-month in May, with annual growth at 3.5%, suggesting a potential bottoming out in late 2023. Predicted future rate cuts could further support this recovery over the next 18 months. Fixed-rate mortgages, particularly 3 and 4-year terms, dominate new loans, accounting for 55% of all new mortgages.As we approach the end of the month, preliminary sales data shows a balanced market for the second consecutive month, with slight declines in median and average home prices. Inventory levels and sales figures are stabilizing, indicating a cautiously optimistic outlook for the housing market. However, the overall economic environment remains complex, requiring ongoing monitoring of key metrics and trends. _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

In June, inflation unexpectedly dropped from 2.9% to 2.7%, surpassing expectations of 2.8%. Despite this decrease, the shelter cost index remains a significant driver of inflation, with a current increase rate of 6.2%, compared to 4.8% last year. Mortgage interest costs surged by 22%, and rent has increased by 8.8%, marking the highest rise since March 1983. However, excluding shelter costs, consumer prices only rose by 1.3%. This better-than-expected inflation report led to market predictions of a 90% chance of a rate cut at the upcoming Bank of Canada (BOC) meeting. With employment at 22-year low and business insolvencies rising, a 0.25% rate cut seems likely, potentially bringing the current rate of 4.5% down, which we hope is still high enough to exert downward pressure on inflation. The impact on the housing market remains uncertain; another rate cut might increase the number of sellers, although buyers seem to remain on the sidelines. Retail sales data also supports the likelihood of a rate cut. Retail sales fell by 0.8% month-over-month, and excluding volatile items, they dropped by 1.4%. In 2024, retail sales increased in only one month and have been flat since 2022, despite a 6% increase in the population. This stagnation suggests that Canadian consumers are financially stretched, likely due to high mortgage payments. Housing starts provide further context to the economic challenges. In April, Prime Minister Trudeau promised to build 3.87 million homes by 2031. However, housing starts fell by 9% month-over-month in June and are down 14% from the same month last year. To meet Trudeau's target, housing starts would need to double from last year's levels, but they are currently 114% below the required mark. The situation is particularly dire in British Columbia, where starts fell by 12% and are 38% below June 2023 levels. In Toronto, new condo sales, a leading indicator for housing starts, are at their lowest since 1997. This decline contradicts the government's promises, with little incentive for builders to increase housing supply due to rising taxes, fees, and restricted access to affordable credit. The government's efforts have only expanded the size of the government by 42% since 2015, without noticeable improvements in efficiency.The Prime Minister and parts of his cabinet have also been flirting with the idea of a primary home equity tax with a government-funded think tank, Generation Squeeze. This proposed tax aims to address housing inequity by adding a surtax on homes valued over $1 million, supposedly affecting only the top 12% of high-value homes. Critics argue this approach is politically motivated and overlooks the real issues driving housing prices, such as immigration, development costs, and availability of credit - plus in markets where the average house price exceeds $1mil are many. Market updates indicate that housing prices fell in June for the first time in 2024 and are expected to drop further in July. As of July 29th, average prices were down by $68,000, and median prices by $10,000. Sales volumes are slightly lower than last year, indicating a slow market. The rest of the summer is expected to see a gradual decline, with potential market stimulation in the fall if there is a third rate cut and an increase in inventory. Overall, the Canadian economy is facing significant challenges with inflation, housing, _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

In June, inflation in the USA declined by 0.1% to 3%, marking the lowest rate in 12 months and a significant drop from the 9.1% peak two years prior. Despite this improvement, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that inflation remains a concern and further positive data is necessary to justify rate cuts. The next Fed announcement is scheduled for July 31, with markets predicting potential rate cuts starting in September.In Canada, inflation was slightly higher than expected last month at 2.9%, compared to the forecasted 2.6%. This discrepancy is largely attributed to a recent change in the composition of the CPI basket by Statistics Canada. Mortgage interest continues to contribute significantly to the inflation rate, accounting for 1.3% of the total 2.9%. With the rate cut cycle ongoing and the weight adjustments in the CPI basket, the upcoming announcement on July 24 could yield surprising results. Markets are currently anticipating rate cuts in September.A new report from the Bank of Canada (BoC) indicates that the overnight rate has risen higher than expected due to misjudged transitory inflation and liquidity issues stemming from government borrowing. This has led to an increase in mortgage payments, which has reduced borrowers' overall consumption by 3% since 2022, with a forecasted increase to 5% by 2027. Mortgage payments have risen by an average of 9% since 2022 and are expected to double to 17% by 2027. This shift diverts funds from consumption to debt servicing. Personal accounts suggest these figures might be underestimations, with some experiencing over 60% increase in mortgage payments, heavily weighted towards interest.Canada's employment situation is deteriorating, with a loss of 1,000 jobs in June, falling short of the expected 25,000 gain. This has pushed the unemployment rate to 6.4%, a 1.6% increase from post-pandemic lows, and the highest in seven years excluding the pandemic spike. The construction industry is getting hammered, with a 3% decline over three months. 99% of new jobs created in the past quarter have been part-time, and the employment rate has dropped to 61%, the lowest in over 20 years. Job vacancies have decreased significantly from 1 million in 2022 to 575,000, driven by rising business delinquencies, now at 1.5%.Toronto's real estate market saw a 4.5% increase in home sales in June, but this still represents the lowest June sales in 24 years, with a 16% year-over-year decline and a 28% drop for condos. Despite expectations that rate cuts would rejuvenate the market, inventory levels have surged, up 67% year-over-year and 84% for condos, reaching a 14-year high. The market is flooded with new units, leading to falling condo prices. The monthly condo cash flow index has improved since late 2023 but remains negative, with average condos running a $1,000 monthly deficit.Vancouver's active inventory surpassed 15,000 listings for the first time in five years, with expectations of reaching a 10-year high soon. Detached homes are leading this increase in inventory, despite record-low single-family home starts over the past 35 years. The condo segment is expected to see a spike in listings in the coming months due to new regulations affecting investment properties. _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

The Vancouver real estate market has largely held strong in 2024, with prices rising for the first five months. However, a significant downturn appears to be building. High interest rates for two years, a ten-year low in sales volumes, and a spike in consumer and business insolvencies are all pointing to a decline in real estate prices.The June numbers are out, and we'll dive into them to discuss how low prices may go. Additionally, we'll provide updates on insolvency figures, the SSMUH initiative, and new tenant laws requiring landlords to give four months' notice if the new owner plans to live in the property.June's total sales were 2,398, down 19% year-over-year and 13% month-over-month, marking the second consecutive monthly decline and the slowest since 2019. With sales 24% below the ten-year average and rising inventory levels, owners are choosing to stay in their homes, while buyers remain hesitant. The expected rate cuts did not bring buyers but instead increased new listings and inventory.June saw 5,737 new listings, a 7% increase year-over-year, and a 3% rise above the ten-year seasonal average, marking the third month of elevated listings. This year has seen more listings than usual, with sellers eager to get deals done, whether for more space or relocations due to work.Inventory stood at 13,405, up 0.5% month-over-month and 35% year-over-year, reaching a four-year high and 20% above the ten-year average. The sales-to-active ratio fell to 18%, down 3% month-over-month, indicating a balanced market for the first time since January. The ratios for detached homes, townhomes, and apartments all dropped, suggesting a continued downward trend over the summer.Prices, which had been increasing every month of 2024, saw a decline in June. The Home Price Index (HPI) dropped by $5,000 to $1,207,000, though it remained up 0.5% year-over-year. The median price fell by $18,000 to $980,000, and the average price rose by $2,000 to a new all-time high of $1,350,000. However, with high rates, spiking inventory, and low sales, a peak in HPI prices for this cycle appears to have been reached, and a decline is expected over the next four months.Insolvencies are a growing concern, with consumer and business insolvencies in British Columbia, Alberta, Ontario, and Quebec rising by 1,750% since mid-2022. This financial stress will likely lead to business layoffs and forced property sales, further driving prices down.New tenant laws effective July 18th require landlords to give four months' notice to tenants for personal use. This change could complicate transactions and mortgage approvals, making rental properties harder to sell and potentially pushing rental prices up as investors withdraw from the market.While the Vancouver real estate market has shown resilience in early 2024, multiple factors are now converging to indicate a potential downturn in prices and lower sales volumes. High interest rates, rising inventory, low sales, increasing insolvencies, and new regulatory challenges are expected to exert downward pressure on prices for the foreseeable future. _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation: