Podcasts about 3fourteen research

Ash Bennington sits down with 3Fourteen Research founder Warren Pies to unpack the unsettling post-Liberation Day market action. With gold rallying as the U.S. dollar, bonds, and equities selloff, Warren explains why a real money exodus from historically trusted assets is underway — and when he expects the trend to end.

On episode 188 of The Compound and Friends, Michael Batnick and Downtown Josh Brown are joined by Warren Pies of 3Fourteen Research to discuss: what earnings typically look like after stock market corrections, Trump's next trade war moves, money leaving the USA, recession indicators, and much more! This episode is sponsored by Apex Fintech Solutions. Learn more at: http://apexfintechsolutions.com/augmentedadvice Sign up for The Compound Newsletter and never miss out: thecompoundnews.com/subscribe Instagram: instagram.com/thecompoundnews Twitter: twitter.com/thecompoundnews LinkedIn: linkedin.com/company/the-compound-media/ TikTok: tiktok.com/@thecompoundnews Investing involves the risk of loss. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be or regarded as personalized investment advice or relied upon for investment decisions. Michael Batnick and Josh Brown are employees of Ritholtz Wealth Management and may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this video. All opinions expressed by them are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management. The Compound Media, Incorporated, an affiliate of Ritholtz Wealth Management, receives payment from various entities for advertisements in affiliated podcasts, blogs and emails. Inclusion of such advertisements does not constitute or imply endorsement, sponsorship or recommendation thereof, or any affiliation therewith, by the Content Creator or by Ritholtz Wealth Management or any of its employees. For additional advertisement disclaimers see here https://ritholtzwealth.com/advertising-disclaimers. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. Any mention of a particular security and related performance data is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. The information provided on this website (including any information that may be accessed through this website) is not directed at any investor or category of investors and is provided solely as general information. Obviously nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. See our disclosures here: https://ritholtzwealth.com/podcast-youtube-disclosures/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this week's episode of Facts vs. Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist are joined by Warren Pies, Co-Founder of 3Fourteen Research, to discuss market trends, recession risks, Fed policy, and, of course, some fun Pi Day and St. Patrick's Day talk. They dive into economic growth concerns, interest rates, inflation, and why a growth scare doesn't necessarily mean a recession is coming.Key Takeaways:Is a Growth Scare Just That? Market sentiment has shifted, but there's no clear recession signal yet. Key indicators like residential construction payrolls remain strong.The Fed's Search for Neutral: Interest rates are still restrictive, but the Fed may need to cut more than expected this year to support economic growth.Government Spending & Deficits: Large fiscal deficits have been a cushion for the economy, but potential cuts could introduce new risks.Energy Market Insights: Oil prices are trending lower, which is good for inflation and Fed policy, but may present challenges for energy companies.Market Volatility & Rate Cuts: The Fed's reluctance to ease policy is contributing to a growth scare, but this may just be a temporary market correction.Housing & Economic Signals: While mortgage rates remain high, housing market fundamentals aren't signaling an imminent downturn.Pi Day & St. Patrick's Day Fun: We discuss Chicago's green river tradition, our favorite pies, and how Warren's firm got its name.Questions about the show? We'd love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com Join us for a special Women's History Month edition of Facts vs Feelings, featuring top women leaders in finance discussing markets, investing, and industry insights. Register now: https://www.linkedin.com/events/7303883891440762880Connect with Warren: Website: https://www.3fourteenresearch.com/LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/warren-pies-erp-1b999437/Connect with Ryan: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickX: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu: LinkedIn: Sonu VargheseX: Sonu Varghese#StockMarket #Investing #InterestRates #FederalReserve #EconomicGrowth #Inflation #EnergyMarkets #FinancePodcast #CarsonGroup #PiDay #StPatricksDay

Today's show features a market panel with Charlie Bobrinskoy of Ariel Investments and James Demmert of Main Street Research, offering insights on current trends. Warren Pies of 3Fourteen Research shares predictions for 2025 while reflecting on 2024's key market hits and misses. Ron Shaich, Panera Founder and Cava Board Chair, discusses the restaurant industry and consumer trends.. Charles Schwab's Joe Mazzola unpacks findings from the latest STAX report and market implications for what retail traders are doing. Plus, an exclusive inside look at TSMC's advanced chip factory in Arizona, showcasing groundbreaking developments in U.S. semiconductor manufacturing.

On episode 162 of The Compound and Friends, Michael Batnick and Downtown Josh Brown are joined by Warren Pies and Fernando Vidal of 3Fourteen Research to discuss: the perfect backdrop for gold, when to fade strategist price targets, overall market valuations, the bifurcated economy, and much more! Thanks to Global X for sponsoring this episode! To learn more about Global X's entire suite of ETFs visit: https://www.globalxetfs.com/ Sign up for The Compound Newsletter and never miss out! Instagram: https://instagram.com/thecompoundnews Twitter: https://twitter.com/thecompoundnews LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/the-compound-media/ Investing involves the risk of loss. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be or regarded as personalized investment advice or relied upon for investment decisions. Michael Batnick and Josh Brown are employees of Ritholtz Wealth Management and may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this video. All opinions expressed by them are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management. The Compound Media, Incorporated, an affiliate of Ritholtz Wealth Management, receives payment from various entities for advertisements in affiliated podcasts, blogs and emails. Inclusion of such advertisements does not constitute or imply endorsement, sponsorship or recommendation thereof, or any affiliation therewith, by the Content Creator or by Ritholtz Wealth Management or any of its employees. For additional advertisement disclaimers see here https://ritholtzwealth.com/advertising-disclaimers. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. Any mention of a particular security and related performance data is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. The information provided on this website (including any information that may be accessed through this website) is not directed at any investor or category of investors and is provided solely as general information. Obviously nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. See our disclosures here: https://ritholtzwealth.com/podcast-youtube-disclosures/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week, Kevin and Patrick welcome back to the show, 3Fourteen Research founder, Warren Pies. They discuss why a Fed rate cut can negatively impact bonds while benefiting commodities, and he shares strategies for capitalizing on these market shifts. Check out 3Fourteen Research : https://www.3fourteenresearch.com Follow Warren on X: https://www.x.com/warrenpies Subscribe To Patrick's New Educational Series ONLY available on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@Patrick_Ceresna *Got questions for Kevin and Patrick? Submit your questions to: nostupidquestions@markethuddle.com Visit our merch store!!! https://www.themarkethuddlemerch.com/ To receive our emails with the charts and links each week, please register at: https://markethuddle.com/

Warren Pies, Founder of 3Fourteen Research and Portfolio Manager of the $FCTE ETF, joins Jared Dillian, Founder of Jared Dillian Money and The Daily Dirt Nap, for an insightful discussion on the Fed's upcoming rate cut, the future of the economy, and their trading strategies. The two market veterans also delve into a potential resurgence of inflation, why gold could be in a secular bull market, future U.S. dollar weakness, and much more! Investment Concerns? Get a free portfolio review with Wealthion's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.wealthion.com/free   Don't miss Wealthion's LIVE coverage of the Fed with Maggie Lake! Next Wednesday, September 18, at 2 pm ET. Chapters: 1:22 - Shifting Market Focus: Inflation to Growth Fears 9:19 - Oil Prices and Commodity Market Dynamics 12:42 - Bond Market Strategy & Outlook 16:53 - Analyzing Construction Jobs and Economic Signals 20:46 - Anticipating Inflation's Return 26:31 - Inflation Psychology & Resurgence? 31:29 - Gold's Next Move: Technical and Fundamental Views 34:48 - U.S. Dollar's Future: Overvaluation and Implications Connect with us online: Website: https://www.wealthion.com X: https://www.x.com/wealthion Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/wealthionofficial/ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/wealthion/ #Wealthion #Investing #Markets #Economy #Stocks #Bonds #Commodities #Gold #Inflation #Recession #FinancialNews #MarketTrends #InvestmentAdvice #Wealth #Finance #USD #JaredDillian #WarrenPies Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this episode of Excess Returns, we speak with Warren Pies of 3Fourteen Research about his unique systematic approach to analyzing markets. We explore his outlook for the second half of 2024, discussing topics like the future of the 60/40 portfolio, inflation trends, labor market indicators, earnings expectations, and the impact of AI on productivity. Warren shares insights on market breadth, his newly launched quality-driven ETF strategy, and interesting perspectives on seasonality and retail sentiment. We also touch on his approach to combining systematic and discretionary investing methods. This wide-ranging conversation offers valuable insights for investors navigating the current market environment, showcasing Warren's ability to think outside the box and identify unique market opportunities. SEE LATEST EPISODES ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://excessreturnspod.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.validea.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.valideacapital.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ FOLLOW JACK Twitter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/practicalquant⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ LinkedIn: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ LinkedIn: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

After stocks closed out a strong first half and second quarter, Truist's Keith Lerner and Citi's Drew Petit, plus 3Fourteen Research's Warren Pies, weigh in with their best ideas for the second half of 2024. Jon sits down with Nokia CEO Pekka Lundmark after the company buys Infinera for around $2B, plus an interview with MoviePass CEO Stacy Spikes on buying back the company and MoviePass's second act. Former Kansas City Fed President Thomas Hoenig on recent data, Fedspeak and the consumer. 

“I can generally, take an issue and argue both sides...ultimately you've got to weigh all the evidence and be honest with yourself and come up with the right answer… the ability to take an issue, see both sides, argue both sides, build a case for both sides…and that causes you to just dig and read and turn over stones and understand underlying processes and things like that.” - Warren Pies, 3Fourteen Research--This episode features Warren Pies of 3Fourteen Research. Chase and Warren dig deep into construction data, Warren's process, models, and why he finds construction so important for macro. Warren teaches us how to research trades like a lawyer, but also how important saying, “I don't know” is for your credibility…unless you're at a cocktail party. He argues that sticking to what you know and picking high quality businesses will keep you alive in the markets. We also learned that Gothic Western Fiction is an actual genre (!?). Enjoy this meeting of the minds and learn how to balance granularity with accuracy. --Timestamps:(00:00) – Intro & Plugs(01:20) – Warren's Charity: BridgeALife(02:57) – Warren's Framework on Housing, Construction, and Construction Employment(16:07) – Argue Both Sides of a Trade Like a Lawyer(18:49) – A Behavioral Edge Creates an Informational Edge (19:37) – Preempt a Bad Trade Through Research and Process(21:26) – Learn How To Say, “I Don't Know” Unless You're at a Cocktail Party(23:59) – Stick to Investing in What You Know & Pick Quality Businesses(27:45) –Speed Read Until AI Can Do it For You(31:13)— Exercise Your Nervous System to Help Connect the Dots (33:36) – Having to Rescind a Prediction Made Publicly is Tough (38:45) – Blood Meridian – Gothic Western Fiction?? (42:22) – Understanding Modern Money – A transformation for Warren(42:34) – Between Two Pines(47:48) – Are Higher Rates Stimulative?(50:52) – Self-Reinforcing Loops to the Downside(55:01) – Malinvestment in the 2020s (56:39) – Yellowstone is “Too Popcorn”(59:40) – Thank You Listeners --This Episode's Charity:Bridge A Life Charity – Local group in Sarasota Area, Florida that provides resources to foster families. Donate here: https://www.bridgealife.com/get-involved/donate-2021--Referenced in the Show: Warren's Market Huddle InterviewBooks: Blood Meridian by Cormac McCarthy & Understanding Modern Money: The Key to Full Employment and Price Stability by Randall Wray David Einhorn – The Long and Short of InvestingWarren Mosler – This Guy Says the Fed Has Got Everything Precisely Backward, 2022, NYT Article --Guest Plugs:Warren's X :

This episode Warren Pies Founder of 3Fourteen Research joins the show to discuss the current state of markets with oil trending lower, markets continuing to rally & a pivotal FOMC next week. Enjoy! -- Follow Warren: https://x.com/WarrenPies Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- MANTRA Chain is a Cosmos SDK-based L1 blockchain addressing regulatory compliance gaps in the Cosmos ecosystem. Positioned as the "blockchain for tokenized RWAs and regulated digital assets," MANTRA offers high-performance, scalable blockchain architecture, supporting both permissionless and regulated, compliant applications. Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/ -- Avalanche is a smart contracts platform that scales infinitely and regularly finalizes transactions in less than one second. Its novel consensus protocol, Subnet infrastructure, and HyperSDK toolkit enable Web3 developers to easily launch powerful, custom blockchain solutions. Build anything you want, any way you want, on the eco-friendly blockchain designed for Web3 devs. Start building today at https://www.avax.network/ -- Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:23) Oil, Rates & The Global Cutting Cycle (15:58) Avalanche Ad (17:19) Mantra Ad (18:27) Inflation (25:51) What To Expect Ahead Of FOMC (32:25) Permissionless Ad (33:11) Why Did The Fed Taper QT? (39:37) The Deficit Impact (42:54) Macro Doomerism -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Live discussions with the top precious metals and bitcoin portfolio managers, strategists, and management teams. Discussing the impact of the halving on Bitcoin and how far the current gold and silver bull markets could go. The largest LIVE event of its kind! AGENDA (EST) Introduction Warren Pies - 3Fourteen Research Bob Elliot -Unlimited Funds Shane Williams - West Red Lake Gold Shawn Khunkhun - Dolly Varden Silver Adam Rozencwajg - Goehring & Rozencwajg Associates Paul Sarjeant - Kobo Resources Taj Singh - First Nordic Metals James Tworek - Element79 Gold Tracy Shuchart - Hilltower Research Dan Weiskopf - Amplify ETFs Jeroen Blokland - Blokland Fund Fred Kreuger - Math, Money, Bitcoin LEAD PARTNERS: West Red Lake Gold Mines: https://westredlakegold.com/ Dolly Varden Silver: https://dollyvardensilver.com/ Amplify ETFs: https://amplifyetfs.com/ 3Fourteen Research: https://www.3fourteenresearch.com/ Unlimited Funds: https://www.unlimitedfunds.com/ Hilltower Resource Advisors: https://hilltowerresourceadvisors.com/ Goehring & Rozencwajg Associates: https://www.gorozen.com/ Blokland Smart Multi-Asset Fund: https://bloklandfund.com/eng/ Grizzle Research & Quant: https://grizzleresearch.substack.com/ COMPANIES: West Red Lake Gold: https://westredlakegold.com/ Dolly Varden Silver: https://dollyvardensilver.com/ Element 79 Gold: https://www.element79.gold/ First Nordic Metals: https://fnmetals.com/ Kobo Resources: https://www.koboresources.com/ Math, Money, Bitcoin: https://www.youtube.com/@bitcoinkrueger

A strong session for stocks send the averages to a positive week; 3Fourteen Research's Warren Pies and Unlimited Funds CIO Bob Elliott break down the wild week of earnings and what's ahead for next week. Well-known JPMorgan analyst Stephen Tusa talks his bullishness on an under-the-radar AI play. Apollo Chief Economist Torsten Slok on the Fed's next move. Plus, Bill Holdings CEO on earnings and the state of small business. 

On this weeks Huddle +, Kevin welcomes back to the show, Chief Strategist & Cofounder of 3Fourteen Research, Warren Pies. They discuss Warren’s predictions on oil and stocks, as well as his insights on future market trends. Follow Warren on X: https://www.twitter.com/warrenpies Check out: https://www.3fourteenresearch.com/ *Got questions for Kevin and Patrick? Submit your questions to: nostupidquestions@markethuddle.com Visit our merch store!!! https://www.themarkethuddlemerch.com/ To receive our emails with the charts and links each week, please register at: https://markethuddle.com/

Stocks gave up early gains and the major averages closed lower with the Dow posting its largest intraday swing since March 2023. 3Fourteen Research founder Warren Pies and The Bahnsen Group's David Bahnsen break down the market action while Hamilton Lane co-CEO Erik Hirsch on how private markets are reacting to the geopolitical turmoil. T. Rowe Price's Dom Rizzo on top tech picks while Richard Haass talks Israel's potential next moves. 

Stocks sunk in the final hour of trade today. But Fundstrat's Tom Lee is sticking to his bear case. He explains why. Plus, Warren Pies from 3Fourteen Research tells us why he thinks weird could be the new normal next year. And, JP Morgan's Gabriela Santos breaks down how she is navigating this downturn and where she is seeing strength in 2024.

We've put together a stellar lineup for Grizzle Hard Money - Gold, Silver & Bitcoin. Live discussions with the top precious metals and bitcoin portfolio managers, strategists, and management teams - the biggest LIVE event of its kind! Agenda: 0:00 Intro 2:11 Warren Pies, Cofounder & Strategist | 3Fourteen Research 15:58 Bob Elliot, CEO & CIO | Unlimited Funds 31:06 Shawn Khunkhun, CEO & Director| Dolly Varden Silver (TSXV:DVV) 51:30 Shane Williams, CEO & Director | West Red Lake Gold (TSXV:WRLG) 1:06:09 Mark Brennan, CEO & Chairman | Cerrado Gold (TSXV:CERT) 1:23:03 Galen McNamara, CEO & Director | Summa Silver (TSXV:SSVR) 1:39:11 James Seyffart - Bloomberg LP 2:04:45 Sue Ennis, VP Corporate Development | Hut 8 2:18:35 Grizzle Takeaways and Wrap-up LEAD PARTNERS: Dolly Varden Silver: https://dollyvardensilver.com/ 3Fourteen Research: https://www.3fourteenresearch.com/ Grizzle Research & Quant: https://grizzleresearch.substack.com/ COMPANIES: Dolly Varden Silver: https://dollyvardensilver.com/ West Red Lake Gold: https://westredlakegold.com/ Cerrado Gold: https://www.cerradogold.com/ Summa Silver: https://summasilver.com/ Subscribe to receive Grizzle's free investment research on Substack: http://grizzleresearch.substack.com/ Follow Grizzle on Twitter: @thomasg_grizzle @scottw_grizzle @grizzlemedia #gold #silver #bitcoin

In this episode, we speak with 3Fourteen Research founders Warren Pies and Fernando Vidal. We discuss 3Fourteen's systematic macro process and how they are using it to analyze the current challenging environment. We also cover a wide range of macro topics, including the importance of the duration of treasury issuance, Fed policy, the changing correlation dynamics of stocks and bonds, their unique drawdown prediction model and their outlook for housing. We hope you enjoy the discussion. SEE LATEST EPISODES ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.validea.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.valideacapital.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ FOLLOW JACK Twitter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/practicalquant⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ LinkedIn: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ LinkedIn: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

The major averages closed higher again, extending last week's strength. Evercore's Julian Emanuel walks through why he still sees a rally in the S&P 500 to end the year. Earnings from Tripadvisor and NXP Semiconductors. Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon breaks down the numbers. Bill Shopoff, Shopoff Realty CEO, talks his company's real estate portfolio and how the sector is dealing with rising rates. Neuberger Berman CIO Joseph Amato on why investors should consider small-caps right now. 3Fourteen Research co-founder Fernando Vidal on the significance of today's OpenAI developer day. 

Warren Pies of 3Fourteen Research returns to Forward Guidance to share his views on oil, bond supply, the housing market, and the labor market. Having been an underweight bonds and overweight commodities (oil), Pies now views both the 10-Year Treasury and oil as roughly fair value. Pies expects the mortgage buydowns, where homebuilders shield new homebuyers from the cost of higher mortgage rates, to no longer work at 8% mortgage buyers. He thinks a recession might start in Q2 2024 as employment in residential construction begins to wane. Filmed on October 27, 2023. -- MetaMask Portfolio is your one-stop shop for all things web3. Instead of connecting to multiple exchanges, dapps, and tools, you just need to connect to one simple dapp to track and manage all your assets across different networks and accounts. Try MetaMask Portfolio: https://metamask.io/portfolio/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=pDapp_Blockworks_Podcast_ForwardGuidance&utm_content=pDapp_podcast_FG_shownotes __ Follow Warren Pies on Twitter https://twitter.com/WarrenPies 3Fourteen Research on Twitter https://twitter.com/3F_Research Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (01:14) Why Warren Has Been Significantly Underweight Bonds (And Why He Is No Longer) (12:12) Earnings Expectations For Stocks (24:59) Warren's View On Housing Market & Recession (33:31) The Buydown Math For Homebuilders Stops Working At 8% (40:21) Labor Market Remains Very Tight (43:44) Is U.S. Economy Reaccelerating From Trough of 2022? (48:21) Warren's View On Oil (50:56) Hedge Funds Tend To Short Oil On A Directional Basis As Opposed To Being Part of a Basis Trade (Such As So Often The Case In Bonds) (52:42) Overweight Position In Energy Stocks (Within Equity Sleeve) (01:00:09) Pro-Cyclical Deficits Run By U.S. Government __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

We had the pleasure of catching up with Warren Pies, Founder & Strategist at 3Fourteen Research, a great conversation with one of the best quantitative macro strategists on Wall Street. The last time we had Warren on the show (June 2023) he shared his bullish view on oil for 2H 2023, he absolutely nailed the call - he provides an update to his outlook going forward and implications for the broader market. He also provides excellent insights on energy equities and the underlying drivers, why investors have to look beyond spot oil prices. Warren also shares his data backed view on the probability of a hard vs. soft landing in the economy, and his current asset class preferences. We also talk about the death of the 60/40 equity and bond asset allocation portfolio and why investors have to be a lot more tactical and active going forward.   3Fourteen Research: https://www.3fourteenresearch.com/ Twitter: https://twitter.com/WarrenPies / https://twitter.com/3F_Research Grizzle Research & Quant Substack: https://grizzleresearch.substack.com Follow Grizzle on Twitter: @grizzlemedia @thomasg_grizzle @scottw_grizzle #energy #oil #macroeconomics

Is a loosening job market and an ongoing retreat in inflation leading toward the soft economic landing that the bulls have pinned their hopes on? Or are the economy and market headed for harder times? Tom Lee from Fundstrat and Warren Pies of 3Fourteen Research debate it. Plus, new data on retail investors is shedding some light on where they're putting their money these days. Kate Rooney digs in on those numbers. And, top technician Ryan Detrick is breaking down the charts and explaining where he sees stocks headed for the month of September. 

Warren Pies, founder of 3Fourteen Research, joins Ash Bennington to discuss the price action we've seen following some softening economic data, what specific data points he is monitoring to frame his outlook, and the driving forces that investors need to watch in the energy sector. You can find more of Warren's work here: https://t.co/vM9jt9PPQe Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Housing is rebounding and all the sudden the central bank hawks are back on parade. Is it time to call off the recession or will the downside risk increase due to central banks misreading the situation? Andreas Steno and Emil Moller of Steno Research hosts Warren Pies of 3Fourteen Research for a discussion on housing and how to trade it.Read more content from Andreas and Emil on Stenoresearch.com. We provide you with +70 macro insights each month as well as access to our live portfolio and macro datahub. Sign up now for a 14 day free trial and get 30% off your first payment with the code 'macro30'.Hosts: Andreas Steno Larsen and Emil MøllerGuest: Warren Pies, 3Fourteen Research

Warren Pies, co-founder and strategist of 3Fourteen Research, joins Maggie Lake to explore why recent housing data might be pointing to a soft landing, what that means for the Fed's battle against inflation, and when the next recession could arrive. You can find more of Warren's work here: https://t.co/vM9jt9PPQe Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

What happens when a seasoned attorney turns his analytical skills toward the world of markets and macroeconomics? Prepare to have your mind blown as Warren Pies, founder of 3Fourteen Research, shares invaluable insights on market data analysis, including the limitations of quantitative work and the importance of an open-minded approach. Don't miss Warren's journey from the courtroom to his time at Ned Davis Research, and how his legal background has shaped his unique perspective on the markets.The traditional 60/40 investor may be in for a shock as stocks and bonds experience a shifting correlation. Warren and I explore the potential inflationary pressures that could arise from deglobalization, the shale revolution, and the pandemic's impact on the economy. But it's not all doom and gloom – we also uncover what residential construction payrolls can tell us about predicting the arrival of a recession and the resilience of the housing market.Lastly, we tackle the hot topic of mega cap divergence and its potential implications for market dynamics. Can the bottom 490 stocks pick up the baton and drive the rally? We look at the historical cases of mega cap divergence, and discuss China's role in the global oil market as a crucial player in the petroleum complex. Join us for an engaging conversation that synthesizes a wealth of knowledge from Warren Pies and offers a fresh perspective on the intricate world of markets and macroeconomics.ANTICIPATE STOCK MARKET CRASHES, CORRECTIONS, AND BEAR MARKETS WITH AWARD WINNING RESEARCH. Sign up for The Lead-Lag Report at www.leadlagreport.com and use promo code PODCAST30 for 2 weeks free and 30% off.Nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The content in this program is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any information or other material as investment, financial, tax, or other advice. The views expressed by the participants are solely their own. A participant may have taken or recommended any investment position discussed, but may close such position or alter its recommendation at any time without notice. Nothing contained in this program constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Please consult your own investment or financial advisor for advice related to all investment decisions.See disclosures for The Lead-Lag Report here: https://www.leadlagreport.com/static/termsandconditionsFoodies unite…with HowUdish!It's social media with a secret sauce: FOOD! The world's first network for food enthusiasts. HowUdish connects foodies across the world!Share kitchen tips and recipe hacks. Discover hidden gem food joints and street food. Find foodies like you, connect, chat and organize meet-ups!HowUdish makes it simple to connect through food anywhere in the world.So, how do YOU dish? Download HowUdish on the Apple App Store today:

Warren Pies, co-founder and strategist at 3Fourteen Research sits down for a chat. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this week's podcast Grizzle was joined by Warren Pies, the Co-founder and Strategist at 3Fourteen Research, to help us make sense of both the equity and commodity markets, and why he believes we are in the midst of a bear market rally. Key topics discussed: Why The Market Hasn't Bottomed   Earnings Still Falling Yield Curve Still Inverted Fed Still Hiking Lack of Market Breadth Why Pies Remains Long Oil Inventory Draws Are Improving   OPEC Cuts Take Effect in May China Demand Picking Up US Recession Won't Be Drastic Will The Fed Pause? Historically Fed Doesn't Pause When Markets Rally 5-10% Correction Comes at End of Hike Cycle What Happens in June Will Be Dictated By Market Performance   If CPI Remains Sticky A Pause From The Fed Will Be Harder 3Fourteen Research: https://www.3fourteenresearch.com/ Twitter: https://twitter.com/WarrenPies / https://twitter.com/3F_Research Grizzle Research & Quant Substack: https://grizzleresearch.substack.com Follow Grizzle on Twitter: @grizzlemedia @margot_rubin @thomasg_grizzle @scottw_grizzle

The U.S. added 311,000 jobs in February while unemployment rose from 3.4% to 3.6%. That quickly became background noise though, as trouble in the banking sector sparked a massive selloff in yields. It didn't take long for U.S. equities to follow suit. Ash Bennington is joined by Warren Pies, co-founder of 3Fourteen Research, to discuss whether regulators shutting down Silicon Valley Bank is a sign of wider contagion in the sector, and what the Fed will do next. As Warren sees it, timing is everything.Plus, we'll hear from Alex Gurevich on how central banks are monopolistic entities just like Apple. Catch that entire interview here: https://rvtv.io/3ZBbjl1 and you can find more of Warren's work here: https://www.3fourteenresearch.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

On today's episode of On the Margin, Warren Pies Founder of 3Fourteen Research joins the show to discuss wether the Fed will be able to achieve their soft landing. Focusing on the housing market, Warren describes how this is the key signal to watch for a hard vs soft landing in the U.S economy. Warren then walks through the Fed's quantitative tightening program and how this could effect markets in 2023. As short term bullish technicals emerge, how should investors position if the long term fundamentals are bearish? Finally, with an expertise in energy markets, Warren walks through "the energy trade" of the 2022, and how it could perform into 2023. As many headwinds remain for energy supply, what implications will China's economy reopening have for the global energy market? To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Warren: https://twitter.com/WarrenPies Follow 3Fourteen Research: https://twitter.com/3F_Research Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_ Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Use code MARGIN10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:49) How Likely Is A Soft Landing? (08:28) Quantitative Tightening (16:34) Preparing For A Fed Pause/Pivot (20:00) Blockworks Research (20:49) Bullish Technicals vs Bearish Fundamentals (27:32) The Path Ahead For Inflation In 2023 (31:09) Animal Spirits Are Back For Markets (34:18) Warren's Earnings Forecast (38:29) Permissionless 2023 (39:13) The Effect Of China Reopening (44:50) How Energy Drove Inflation (48:50) Cycles Take Time To Play Out -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

The major averages saw mixed action to close out a mostly downbeat week on Wall Street. Warren Pies from 3Fourteen Research discusses the technical levels he's watching in the S&P 500, and a potential false buy signal that could trick investors. Content and advertising expert Gary Vaynerchuk talks about the record $7 million price tag for Super Bowl ads, and why he thinks they're still underpriced. Michelle Meyer from Mastercard breaks down the muddled picture on the consumer – as sentiment tops estimates but color from earnings calls comes in mixed. Plus the latest on employee dissent at Google over its AI unveil, and Lyft's earnings disaster.

Stocks fell to kick off a week filled with market-moving catalysts, including Wednesday's Fed decision and key earnings from mega-cap tech. Warren Pies from 3Fourteen Research breaks down whether or not the Fed can engineer a soft landing. Satori Fund's Dan Niles discusses his picks ahead of earnings this week from Meta, Alphabet, Apple, and Amazon. Chart expert Jeff DeGraaf takes a closer look at Tesla's big year-to-date run. Plus the latest on Sofi's pop, J&J's slump, and China's potential competitor to ChatGPT.

Stocks pulled back again Thursday, adding to steep losses from Wednesday's session. Strategist Warren Pies from 3Fourteen Research weighs in on the market moves and new comments from Fed vice-chair Lael Brainard on inflation. Sara sits down with celebrated investment banker Ken Moelis for a wide-ranging interview from the World Economic Forum in Davos, where he explained why he sees a big ramp-up in activist investing ahead. Analyst Tim Nollen gives a preview of what to expect from Netflix earnings. Plus the latest on Meta, FTX, and the debt ceiling debate.

On today's episode of "The Macro Trading Floor," Andreas and Alfonso welcome Warren Pies Founder of 3Fourteen Research for a discussion on what to expect as we head into 2023. Warren begins by walking through the current macro cycle he sees us in as we wrap up 2022 and head into 2023. As the yield curve displays some very important signals, Warren draws historical comparisons over the past 40+ years that help investors understand when the Fed might be forced to pause on their current tightening cycle. Expecting inflation to significantly reduce next year, Warren identifies a good risk reward scenario in the bond market . Finally, Warren shares his actionable trade idea, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Warren: https://twitter.com/WarrenPies Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alf: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/blockworks_macro_trading, you'll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply. -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:56) What Is Happening With The BoJ? (08:03) Lagarde's Hawkish Stance Ripples Through The European Bond Market (11:25) Europe Introduces An Energy Price Cap (14:02) Feature Interview With Warren Pies (15:05) Where Are We In The Current Macro Cycle? (17:37) The BoJ Suprises Markets With A Major Policy Change (19:56) Is This Time Different? (23:50) Don't Ignore The Yield Curve (27:15) Energy Will Be A Relative Outperformer (32:25) “Curve Ad” (33:35) Fading The Inflation Narrative (37:31) Warren's Actionable Trade Idea (44:28) Post Interview: Final Thoughts (53:43) What To Expect Heading Into 2023 -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Markets sold off again today to close the week, down drastically from Tuesday morning's post-CPI highs. The reversal comes as central bankers in the U.S. and abroad continued to hike interest rates despite mounting evidence of a looming recession. On today's show, Warren Pies, the co-founder and strategist at 3Fourteen Research, joins Andreas Steno Larsen to discuss what 2023 will bring, what's driving the action in energy markets, and why he believes it's obvious that we've moved past peak inflation. According to Warren, we could be de due for a sharp disinflation trend that will bring opportunities. “The future belongs to the optimists, but, for now, the pessimists are in control,” Warren wrote in his 2023 outlook report. We'll also hear from Felix Zulauf, the CEO of Zulauf Consulting, on the major geopolitical and economic volatility that lies ahead. Watch that entire Interview here: https://rvtv.io/3BFy1hI. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

U.S. equity indexes were mixed heading into the final two hours of the trading week, a fitting close as investors continue to struggle with data that suggest inflation has peaked and a Federal Reserve that, at least in public word, seems as hawkish as ever. “On November 10, 2022, inflation died,” Warren Pies writes in the most recent note from 3Fourteen Research. “And, despite our view that inflation is going to decelerate quickly over the coming year, there are still risks that could resurrect the beast.” Is the U.S. leading the way lower, or will inflation flare again? Warren joins Andreas Steno Larsen for today's Daily Briefing to talk about why bonds are the place to be and equities are at the top end of their range. We also hear from Kokou Agbo-Bloua, the Global Head of Economics at Societe Generale, about the ongoing transition from a lower-for-longer to a higher-for-longer rate environment. Watch the full conversation between Kokou Agbo-Bloua and James Helliwell here: https://rvtv.io/3UPnZSG. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The market is all set for a 75-basis-point rate-hike in November, though San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly stoked an equity rally on Friday when she said the central bank should try to avoid an “unforced downturn” by over-tightening. The U.S. dollar softened against major currency pairs, including the Japanese yen in spectacular fashion, and Treasury yields also declined. Saudi Arabia and China are forging new ties over crude oil, as the geopolitical-macroeconomic landscape continues to shift. Ash Bennington welcomes Warren Pies, the founder of 3Fourteen Research, to talk about what the Fed will look at as it determines policy from here, the key factors driving inflation right now, and the state of the global energy market. We also hear from Victor Shih about China's priorities for the next five years and its changing position in the global economy. Be sure to tune in on Monday, October 24th to watch the conversation between Victor Shih and Maggie Lake. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Warren Pies is overweight energy for multiple reasons. The founder of 3Fourteen Research joins Harry Melandri to make the bullish case for everything related to hydrocarbon extraction, production, and delivery to market, citing years of poor management and negative cash flow as the primary reasons the sector was discounted. Warren explains why high-quality energy stocks should have a place in any long-term portfolio – and he notes that some housing exposure might be a good idea right now too. Never miss an episode of Next Big Trade - subscribe here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

FedEx withdrew forward earnings guidance and CEO Raj Subramaniam warned of a “worldwide recession” on Friday, sounding another “risk off” signal and sending all three major U.S. indexes to declines of at least 1% two hours ahead of Friday's close. Warren Pies, the founder of 3Fourteen Research, joins Maggie Lake for today's Daily Briefing to talk about how a “worldwide recession” would impact particular asset classes, with an emphasis on energy. Warren explains the structural factors that make high-quality names related to crude oil and natural gas potential outperformers – even in an environment of “dramatic disinflation.” We also have a preview of an upcoming My Life in 4 Trades podcast featuring Bill Browder, who talks about Vladimir Putin, what comes next in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and why it's going to go on for some time longer. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Warren Pies is overweight energy for multiple reasons. The founder of 3Fourteen Research joins Harry Melandri to make the bullish case for everything related to hydrocarbon extraction, production, and delivery to market, citing years of poor management and negative cash flow as the primary reasons the sector was discounted. Warren explains why high-quality energy stocks should have a place in any long-term portfolio – and he notes that some housing exposure might be a good idea right now too.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average erased a 370-point gain and turned red this afternoon, as investors appeared to abandon equities ahead of the long Labor Day weekend. This morning's “Goldilocks” U.S. jobs report provided an initial lift on hope there was foundation for a 50 as opposed to a 75-basis-point rate hike when the Federal Open Market Committee meets September 20-21. And then there's the crude oil question – as in, is that critical commodity getting ready for another run higher? With the G-7 discussing a price cap on Russian oil, Vladimir Putin saying he won't sell to nations that agree to it, and Saudi Arabia weighing production cuts, Maggie Lake welcomes Warren Pies, the founder of 3Fourteen Research, to talk about "black gold," volatility, and things that could make what is, historically, the worst month for the stock market particularly catastrophic this year. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Tom welcomes Warren Pies to the show. Warren is cofounder of 3Fourteen Research. Warren explains how they attempted to map out how bear market rally's typically behave. These rallies have to fail and head below previous lows. In our current case, that would be, 3066 on the S&P 500. They examined forty-nine historic rallies, and six of them we're larger than today. We're in fairly rare territory. Usually, when we see these types of moves, the bear market is almost over. However, the difference this time is we may be facing a recession and the Fed seems likely to raise rates further. This should give investors caution. Bond markets have been signalling for some time that inflation will be transitory. Yield curve inversions are often correlated with a coming recession. The Fed may be on the verge of making a policy mistake. Their model for determining future recessions is worsening. They use a number of factors including various credit spreads, rate of change, equity market returns, and analysis of the yield curve. Most of the yield curves are inverting, and inversions often signal a recession in 16 to 24 months. He discusses their outlook for inflation and why housing is likely to slowly burn higher. Energy and housing components are sixty percent of the CPI. Food inflation is also a factor. The high costs of refined petroleum products like gasoline is affecting consumers, but most have been fairly flush with cash. The playbook we saw with Covid could become a policy tool for managing global energy requirements. Governments may choose to balance shortfalls with energy with similar lockdowns. Russia will have a hard time transitioning from Western to Eastern buyers. This is due to a lack of infrastructure, pipelines, and shipping options. Much of the world is going to face further energy shortages. They have conducted some analysis of peak hydrocarbon usage. They believe demand will continue to grown until at least 2040. We can only electrify and expand the grid so quickly. This transition has been haphazardly organized. Bottom line, the era of cheap oil appears to be over, which will continue to pressure inflation. Warren discusses the key features of their gold model, which helps them determine good entry and exit points. He discusses why they recommend large cap Canadian oil producers. Lastly, Warren outlines where inflation will head over the short, medium, and long term. Stocks and bonds have become more correlated than many investors expect. Bonds may no longer be a safe haven, and the coming years are likely to be more difficult. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:55 - Bear Market Rallies4:46 - Rate Hikes Priced In?7:30 - Bond Markets8:56 - Recession Model11:26 - Recession Counterpoints16:20 - Inflation Drivers19:26 - Energy & Consumers22:20 - Energy Supply & Prices27:35 - Oil Reserve Releases29:48 - Energy Backwardation33:58 - China, Oil, & Copper36:20 - Peak Energy Analysis39:10 - ESG & Capital Allocation41:50 - Gold Model45:45 - Energy Market Plays49:14 - Investing in Miners51:36 - Inflation Outlook57:10 - Commodities Bull Market59:20 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode Examining past bear market rallies for context with today's markets.Their recession model and why it's increasingly worsening.Global energy demand and why continued demand growth in petroleum is almost certain.There inflation models and problems with the bond market as a safe haven. Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/warrenpiesTwitter: https://twitter.com/3F_ResearchWebsite: https://www.3fourteenresearch.com/ Before founding 3Fourteen Research, Warren led Ned Davis Research's Energy and Commodity strategy. In that role, he built the firm's commodity-related studies, models, and unique indicators. His research combines proprietary fundamental, technical and macro indicators to identify major investment themes and market trends affecting capital markets.

On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello is joined by Warren Pies, founder of 3Fourteen Research. 2021 and 2022 saw commodity prices soar due to supply constraints — Warren walks through the supply and demand outlook throughout the back half of 2022. As China reopens, conflict in Ukraine continues, and commodity prices remain elevated, will a recession lead to a decline in commodity prices, or is the inflationary impulse and supply mismatch too great to cause demand destruction? To find out, you'll have to tune in! --  Follow : https://twitter.com/WarrenPies Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf  Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_  Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ --  Referenced In The Show:  Oil slips on China lockdowns, but bullish trends intact: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/oil-hovers-near-13-week-high-robust-us-demand-china-optimism-2022-06-09/?taid=62a1b0ba7385bc0001a57c94 --  Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction  (00:24) The Commodity Bull Market (03:02) The Oil Market (08:26) Backwardation Of The Oil Curve (11:59) Will Demand Destruction Reduce Oil Prices? (19:27) Supply Constrains In The Oil Market (22:49) Industrial & Agricultural Commodities (25:23) Government Reaction To Rising Energy Prices --  Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Markets rebounded sharply Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average on track for its first positive trading session after six consecutive down days. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said engineering a soft landing would involve “some pain,” as the central bank remains on track for 50-basis-point rate hikes in June and July. U.S. consumer sentiment fell to its lowest in more than a decade, as April data from the University of Michigan survey showed a drop from 65.2 to 59.1. The average per-gallon price of gasoline hit a new high and continues to weigh on the minds of Americans. And the geopolitical situation promises more constraints on key energy and food supplies. Tony Greer, founder of TG Macro, joins Warren Pies, founder of 3Fourteen Research, to discuss the energy market's impact on the broader market. We also hear from Alex Gurevich, who says there's a 0% chance of a soft landing. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3NfvoGC. Watch the full interview featuring Alex Gurevich and Raoul Pal here: https://rvtv.io/3w9TH38. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Not since March 2000 has the Federal Open Market Committee announced a 50-basis-point increase to the federal funds target rate. Now, the FOMC is a day away from doing just that. And traders are pricing in near-even-money odds of a 75-basis-point hike in June. The FOMC is also expected to introduce its plan to reduce the Federal Reserve's balance sheet on Wednesday, a process with its own implications for interest rates. U.S. equity indexes held solid gains late Tuesday. Factory orders for March rose a better-than-expected 2.2%, job openings reached an all-time high of 11.5 million, and U.S. natural gas prices hit a 13-year high on growing concern supply will fall short of demand this summer. The data suggest the Fed has room to do what it needs to do to fight inflation. But, as Warren Pies notes, “Oil is driving this market…” And there are structural factors at play that could make the central bank's job impossible. Pies, founder of 3Fourteen Research, joins Real Vision's Weston Nakamura to talk about today's price action, tomorrow's decision by the FOMC, and the prospect of stagflation afflicting the economy. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3kEtIKN Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The major U.S. equity indexes were all up more than 1% late in Monday's regular trading session, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite leading the way with a 1.85% gain. Stocks today seem to reflect a strong start to earnings reporting season. According to Bloomberg, 38 of the 48 S&P 500 components that have reported so far have posted positive surprises. Earlier in the day, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note touched 2.93%, a level the benchmark rate hasn't seen since 2018, as bond investors continue to price in the impact of Federal Reserve efforts to fight inflation. U.S. natural gas prices eased off after hitting 13-year highs ahead of an unusual April snowstorm in the Northeast. Crude oil slid nearly 5% on Tuesday, as the International Monetary Fund cut its 2022 and 2023 global growth forecasts. And broader concerns about global resource constraints amid the war in Eastern Europe linger. Thomas Thornton, founder of Hedge Fund Telemetry, joins Warren Pies, founder of 3Fourteen Research, for today's Real Vision Daily Briefing to talk about the stock market rally, commodities, energy, and inflation, and the problem the Federal Reserve faces in trying to stabilize prices without triggering a recession. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3vsVH5c. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Consumer Price Index increased 8.5% in March compared to a year earlier, another new 40-year-high following a 7.9% annual gain in February. Energy and agriculture markets remain the critical areas of focus, each of them adversely impacted by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. U.S. equity indexes surged on a slower-than-expected 0.3% month-over-month CPI increase, and many economists see this as a potential peak in this inflationary period. The Federal Reserve has left the door open for a 50 basis point increase to its federal funds rate target, and “quantitative tightening” is set to commence in May. But there's little to suggest inflation will recede toward the central bank's 2% target anytime soon. Tony Greer, founder of TG Macro, joins Warren Pies, founder of 3Fourteen Research, for today's Real Vision Daily Briefing to discuss commodities, inflation, central bank policy, and financial markets. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3JtPfzO Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's safe to say the macro environment is unsettled right now, to an extent not seen in decades, and financial markets are correspondingly volatile. Crude oil prices are now down nearly 30% from recent highs, as investors weigh the demand impact of new COVID-19 lockdowns in China against supply constraints owing to the Russia-Ukraine war. Wheat has also backed off but is still up nearly 40% since Russia invaded Ukraine. The Labor Department reported this morning that the Producer Price Index for February was up 10% year over year and 0.8% month over month, as recent spikes for energy and food inputs promise a “faster for longer” rate of rise. Still, the major U.S. equity indexes were all trading more than 1% higher through midday. This is all prelude to Wednesday's monetary policy announcement by the Federal Open Market Committee. Inflation is the main enemy for the Federal Reserve. But global stress – heightened by reported talks between Saudi Arabia and China about the former accepting the yuan in payment for oil rather than the U.S. dollar – must be weighing on Jerome Powell and company. Tony Greer, founder of TG Macro and editor of The Morning Navigator, joins Warren Pies, founder of 3Fourteen Research, to discuss the impact of war in Eastern Europe on commodity and financial markets and how policymakers are likely to try to manage it all. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3KKXSai Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

U.S. equity indexes rallied early Tuesday, even as spiraling commodity prices promise even more upward pressure on inflation. Highlighting the day's events was nickel soaring past the $100,000-per-metric-ton mark, which led the London Metal Exchange to suspend trading in the key input for stainless steel. Soon after President Joe Biden announced that the U.S. would ban imports of Russian oil, natural gas, and coal effective immediately, the U.K. government said it would phase out Russian oil and oil products by the end of 2022. Shell declared it would stop all purchases of Russian crude and shutter its service stations in Russia, while Germany's Uniper, a major buyer of Russian gas, said it won't sign any new contracts for long-term supply. West Texas Intermediate crude traded as high as $128 per barrel, Brent hit $132, and European natural gas prices remained near record highs. Tony Greer, founder of TG Macro and editor of The Morning Navigator joins Warren Pies, founder of 3Fourteen Research, to discuss the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on commodity and financial markets. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3MwxnH7 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Show from 11/5/21Wharton Finance Professor Jeremy Siegel delivers a positive market update this week. He says Powell is not worried about inflation or rate increases, employment numbers are above expectations, and reopening trades are doing well. Then, how should you think about quantitative models and research? Host Jeremy Schwartz talks to the founder of 3Fourteen Research where they run regression trend lines through every market to ensure accuracy of data. All that and more.Guest:Warren Pies – Founder and Strategist at 3Fourteen ResearchFollow Warren on Twitter: @WarrenPiesFor more on 3Fourteen Research visit their website: https://www.3fourteenresearch.com/Follow WisdomTree on Twitter: @WisdomTreeETFsFollow Jeremy Schwartz on Twitter: @JeremyDSchwartz See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

The world faces an energy crisis that threatens to stop the economic recovery in its tracks. On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Warren Pies, founder of 3Fourteen Research, joins Jack Farley to explain the root causes of soaring prices of oil and natural gas. Pies argues that the world is entering a regime of secular inflation that will have profound implications for investors, such as turning the correlation between stocks and bonds from negative to positive. Pies shares his views on real assets and explains why he thinks Bitcoin will likely continue to outperform gold at least over the short-term. PIes challenges mainstream narratives about Bitcoin such as the stock-to-flow model as well its being uncorrelated with other risk assets.

In episode 315, we welcome our guests, Warren Pies and Fernando Vidal, co-founders of 3Fourteen Research, which combines expert qualitative insights with true quantitative discipline.    In today’s episode, we take a data-driven approach to look at the markets. We start with the firm’s original story and why Warren believes real assets have a place in portfolios going forward. Then they walk us through their research process and the benefits of combining machine learning with technicals and fundamentals. Finally, we hear what their models say about inflation, commodities, oil, and Bitcoin.    Warren and Fernando were kind enough to put together some of their research for you to refer to during the episode. Click here to see their reports.   Please enjoy this episode with 3Fourteen Research’s Warren Pies and Fernando Vidal.    -----   This episode is sponsored by AcreTrader. AcreTrader is an investment platform that makes it simple to own shares of farmland and earn passive income, and you can start investing in just minutes online. AcreTrader provides access, transparency, and liquidity to investors, while handling all aspects of administration and property management so that you can sit back and watch your investment grow.  If you're interested in a deeper understanding, and for more information on how to become a farmland investor through their platform, please visit acretrader.com/meb.