The Hated and the Dead

Warren Harding was the 29th President of the United States, serving between 1921 and his death from a heart attack in the Summer of 1923.Harding famously proclaimed a "return to normalcy" following a frenetic period defined by severe economic downturn, race riots, anarchist bombings and labour strikes in the aftermath of the First World War. Though Harding's presidency turned out to be relatively brief, two things remain highly interesting about Harding today. Firstly, despite being very popular at the time of his death, he is now frequently ranked as one of the worst presidents in American history. And secondly, his railing against progressivism, and desire to return the country to a more limited form of government, sounds eerily familiar to even the most casual followers of American politics in 2024. Why has Harding's reputation collapsed so disastrously in the century since his death? Is this deserved? If Donald Trump intends to change American government in the fundamental ways he and his followers claim to, what can he learn from Warren Harding along the way? These are the questions at the heart of today's podcast. 

Olaf Scholz has been Chancellor of Germany since December 2021. Following the collapse of his government a few weeks ago, he seems headed for electoral defeat early next year. Where did it all go wrong?As a character, Scholz is muted and impersonal almost to the point of being dreary - famously described as the “personification of boredom in politics” by Der Spiegel. Such qualities make a profile like this difficult, so today's episode is more policy heavy than previous ones. But it does nonetheless achieve its principal aim in telling the story of a Germany that, nearing the midpoint of the 2020s, seems weary, directionless, and insecure. My returning guest for this conversation is Oliver Moody. Oliver is the Berlin Correspondent at the Times and Sunday Times, a post which sees him cover Germany, Scandinavia, Central Europe and the Baltics. IN this vein, Oliver will be publishing his first book next year; that book is Baltic: The Future of Europe, which seeks to uncover how this Northeastern corner of Europe will decide the course of the West in the coming years. Great Business StoriesA great business story thoroughly researched and brought to life by Caemin &...Listen on: Apple Podcasts Spotify

Patrice Lumumba was the first prime minister of the Democratic Republic of the Congo for just ten weeks in 1960. The brevity of Lumumba's time in charge reflects he difficulties of governing an enormous, ethnically diverse country deliberately underdeveloped by its former Belgian colonial masters. But it was the fomenting rivalry between the US and the Soviet Union over Africa that had the largest impact on Lumumba's time as prime minister.My guest today is Stuart A. Reid. Stuart is a Senior Fellow for History and Foreign Policy at the Council on Foreign Relations, and was previously an editor at Foreign Affairs between 2008 and 2024. He is also the author of The Lumumba Plot, which has just been released in paperback. Great Business StoriesA great business story thoroughly researched and brought to life by Caemin &...Listen on: Apple Podcasts Spotify

Daniel Noboa has been President of Ecuador since November 2023. The youngest democratically elected state leader in the world, Noboa has had a highly tumultuous introduction to high office.In January this year, violent crime in Ecuador, which had been increasing for nearly a decade, reached a terrible crescendo when two of the country's gang leaders escaped from prison, and a series of armed attacks, including bombings, were inflicted on prisons, markets and TV stations. The result was a declaration of a state of emergency by Noboa's government, only six weeks old at the time. To try and fight these forces, Noboa has reached out to the US, painting himself as a defender of democracy. As you're about to hear, the US has given Noboa some considerable leeway in how he has prosecuted Ecuador's war on the gangs.My guest today is Isabel Chiriboga. Isabel is an assistant director at the Atlantic Council's Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center, where she contributes to the center's work on the Andes, including on Colombia, Ecuador, Chile, and Peru. She is also a frequent opinion contributor, and her work has been published in Foreign Policy, Miami Herald, the National Interest, Global Americans, and the New Atlanticist.Great Business StoriesA great business story thoroughly researched and brought to life by Caemin &...Listen on: Apple Podcasts Spotify

Robert Fico has been the prime minister of Slovakia since 2023, and has served in that position three times since 2006. The thankfully unsuccessful attempt on Fico's life came at a time when the prime minister had become genuinely controversial internationally for the first time. This followed an increasingly erratic approach to the Slovakian media, pronounced lockdown and vaccine skepcitism in the aftermath of the pandemic, and opposition to military assistance to Ukraine - a country which shares a border with Slovakia. What you're about to hear is that there was a time when Fico was a much more conventional politician. So why has he changed? Was he responding to changes at home in Slovakia - a country with a distinct political trajectory to its neighbours - or did the World change around Slovakia, with Fico looking abroad for inspiration?My guest today is Dr Michal Ovádek. Michal is a lecturer and assistant professor in European Institutions, Politics and Policy at University College London, who primarily researches issues related to EU institutions, and the rule of law. As well as Fico, we discuss the post-communist transition in Slovakia, the origins of Slovak ambivalence towards the Ukrainian war effort, and associated Russophilia, and the cultural divide inside the country today. 

Nouri al-Maliki was Prime Minister of Iraq between 2006 and 2014, a tenure that makes him easily the country's longest serving post-2003 prime minister. Maliki became Iraq's head of government in the maelstrom of Iraq's sectarian civil war, following the 2003 US-UK invasion of the country. Today's is a story of the collapse of the Iraqi state, and the highly imperfect efforts to rebuild it made necessary by the liquidation of virtually all of Saddam Hussein's institutions by the United States within a matter of weeks. The level of hubris displayed by the US both before and after the invasion is extraordinary, and on perhaps no issue did the US not do its homework to a more embarrassing degree than the difference between Sunni and Shia muslims. Indeed, President Bush is reported to have been surprised on finding out in 2003 that Iraq had two different kinds of Muslim living in it. My guest today is Renad Mansour. Renad is a senior research fellow and project director of the Iraq Initiative at Chatham House. He is also a senior research fellow at the American University of Iraq, Sulaimani, and a research fellow at the Cambridge Security Initiative based at Cambridge University. He is also the co-author of Once Upon a Time in Iraq, which has also been made into a BBC television series. High Street Matters: Accessibility - Unlocking the High StreetWe arm retailers with the key to unlock the potential of the high street... for all.Listen on: Apple Podcasts Spotify

Sadyr Japarov has been the President of Kyrgyzstan since 2021. Japarov's rise to power came after his country had experienced three revolutions in 15 years, in a part of the World unused to political upheaval. Today's episode investigates whether the three Kyrgyz revolutions, so unusual for Central Asia, have benefited the country's development. On the one hand, they sent a message to national and regional elites that their people had a voice, and were willing to use it. On the other, Japarov has made political hay out of the disorder visited upon Kyrgyzstan as a result of 15 years of turmoil, and is now rolling back democratic freedoms in the country. My guest today is Bruce Pannier. Bruce is a Central Asia Fellow in the Eurasia Program at the Foreign Policy Research Institute and a longtime journalist and correspondent covering Central Asia. He also writes Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty's blog, Qishloq Ovozi.

Jean-Bertrand Aristide was President of Haiti three times between 1991 and 2004. A lightning rod for hope and democracy on his election in 1990, the overall course and tone of Aristide's political career was set remarkably early on in 1991, when after just eight months in power, Aristide was removed in a coup. As you're about to hear, Aristide's reformist agenda never recovered from the 1991 coup, and his time in power can be interpreted as the overture to Haiti's present crisis. It is one of the most crushing stories I've covered on this series, but my guest also provides hope in the form of stories about the enormous cultural and communal wealth of Haiti and its people. That guest is Rosa Freedman. Rosa is Professor of Law, Conflict, and Global Development at the University of Reading, and has published extensively on the United Nations, international human rights law, sexual exploitation and abuse in conflict, and Haiti. 

Keir Starmer has been the leader of the UK Labour Party since 2020. This makes him Leader of the Opposition, and - if the polls are to be believed - Britain's next prime minister. Amid a revolving door of prime ministers, Brexit, and the pandemic, Starmer's rise from leader of the weakest Labour Party since the Second World War to being in poll position in the race for Downing Street has taken many by surprise. It's also left a public clamouring for more information about who this man is, what makes him tick, and what he believes in.This podcast tries to assess the validity of the conventional wisdoms that have grown up around Starmer. Starmer will face many challenges if he ever becomes prime minister, so it's important to think about who he is, before the demands of Downing Street swamp him. My guest today is Tom Baldwin. Tom is a British journalist who has worked for the Times and the Sunday Telegraph as political editor; he was also a senior political adviser to Ed Miliband when Miliband was Labour leader. Tom has also written Keir Starmer: The Biography, an unauthorised but authoritative account of the man himself. More recently than that he has also co-authored England: Seven Myths That Changed a Country and How to Set Them Straight.

Afonso Dhlakama was the leader of RENAMO, Mozambique's main opposition movement, for over forty years until his death in 2018. Dhlakama's story, and the Mozambican Civil War at large, are notable for two reasons. First is the regional and international dimension of the war. Mozambique's FRELIMO government courted support from communist powers such as East Germany but also became welcome in Margaret Thatcher's Downing Street.Secondly, the two sides in the Civil War have actually come to an agreement in the early 1990s, having participated in a fifteen year civil war which claimed the lives of perhaps a million people. Does this make Mozambique a democracy today? Probably not. But its elites have at least accepted that they need to engage in some kind of inter-party horse trading.My guest today is Alex Vines. Alex has led the Africa Programme at Chatham House since 2002, and his wealth of experience working on issues related to Africa is immense, having appeared on the UN Panel of Experts on Côte d'Ivoire and Liberia, chairing the former. He was also a UN election officer in Mozambique in 1994, and has authored many works related to the country.

J.R. Jayewardene served as prime minister and then president of Sri Lanka between 1977 and 1989. Sri Lankan history, politics and society is dominated by tensions between two ethnic groups. Ethnic divisions are intrinsic to countless countries, including many covered on this podcast before. The key question the Sri Lankan experience raises though is this: in stoking ethnic tensions, what is more important: how the government works, or who runs it?Today's subject demonstrates that in the case of Sri Lanka, the latter is true. During his presidency, J.R. presided over the so called Black July riots, which saw the deaths of 5000 Tamils in a single month. But even when he saw the results of leaning into ethnic division - and there was evidence of the results of doing so long before Black July- he wasn't compelled to stop. For this reason, J.R might hold greater responsibility for Sri Lanka's ethnic strife and ensuing civil war than any other Sri Lankan. My guest today is Dr. Asanga Welikala. Primarily focusing on constitutional theory and commonwealth constitutional history, Asanga is a lecturer in public law at the University of Edinburgh School of Law. He is also a Research Associate of the Institute of Commonwealth Studies, University of London. 

The Houthis, a Yemeni political and military organisation, have made headlines across the World since they began blocking the Red Sea nearly six months ago. But despite their association in people's minds with Gaza, and Iran's "Axis of Resistance", their true motives are poorly understood.This is the second half of a two-part conversation seeking to explain the Houthis' influence in Yemeni politics and society. Today's episode deals with the period since 2013, and especially since the outbreak of civil war in Yemen in 2014.How have the Houthis gone from being an obscure group in the mountainous region of Northern Yemen to controlling two thirds of the country's population? And most importantly of all, how have the Houthis managed to fend off a US-backed alliance comprised of the armed forces of Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar?As was the case in Part 1, my guest for this conversation is Isa Blumi. Isa is an associate professor of Turkish and Middle Eastern Studies at Stockholm University. Isa has published several books on Turkey, the Balkans, the late Ottoman Empire and Yemen, including Destroying Yemen: What Chaos in Arabia Tells Us about the World.

The Houthis, a Yemeni political and military organisation, have made headlines across the World since they began blocking the Red Sea nearly six months ago. But despite their association with Gaza, and Iran's "Axis of Resistance", their origins in the turbulent Yemeni politics of the 1990s and 2000s are not widely understood. This is the first half of a two-part conversation seeking to explain the Houthis' rise to prominence, and covers the unification of Yemen in 1990, the arrival of Sunni extremism in the country from Saudi Arabia, and the violent attempts of President Saleh to impose order on Yemen. All of these strands, and others, contributed to the Houthis' development, and sent Yemen hurtling towards the Arab Spring, and civil war. My guest today is Isa Blumi. Isa is an associate professor of Turkish and Middle Eastern Studies at Stockholm University. Isa has published several books on Turkey, the Balkans, the late Ottoman Empire and Yemen, including Destroying Yemen: What Chaos in Arabia Tells Us about the World. 

Jens Stoltenberg has been Secretary General of NATO since 2014, and prior to that served twice as Prime Minister of Norway. Looking at him is interesting because, at least in the early part of his premiership, many commentators, buoyed by the end of the Cold War and the third wave of democratisation, genuinely believed that the world was converging on Norwegian attitudes towards democracy and international cooperation. During his time as NATO Secretary General, though, the World has stopped converging on Norwegian, or Western, ideals of democracy. In fact, too often, it seems as if the West is converging on the rest of the World. In this context, is gradualism, the political approach favoured by Stoltenberg, insufficient? Stoltenberg is rarely described as controversial, but is his political philosophy and his outlook now the very thing all politicians wish to avoid becoming more than anything else - outdated? My guest today is Magnus Takvam. Magnus is a Norwegian journalist, broadcaster and political commentator who until 2022 worked with NRK, the Norwegian state-owned Broadcasting Corporation. As well as Stoltenberg's career, Magnus and I discuss the effect oil wealth has had on Norwegian politics and society, the 2011 Norway attacks, which occurred on Stoltenberg's watch, and the future trajectory of Norwegian politics.

John Magufuli was the President of Tanzania between 2015 and 2021.  He was the sixth in a long line of presidents drawn from the same political party, the CCM, which has ruled Tanzania since its independence in 1961. CCM presidents came and went, standing down after two terms in office, just as American presidents do. But in the 2000s, the CCM started to lose popularity in Tanzania. Corruption scandals and political infighting saw elections become closer - even after the CCM had rigged them. And it was at this point, sensing vulnerability, that the CCM decided to take a more openly authoritarian turn, by choosing John Magufuli as its leader. Magufuli quickly moved to shut down dissenting voices and newspapers, as well as restrictions on opposition rallies. Like the canniest of dictators, he sought to demonstrate his power to others by openly lying to them, claiming green was blue. He also came to lie about the coronavirus pandemic, which he said could be treated by steam inhalation, and discouraged was wearing, testing and vaccination.  My guest today is Aikande Kwayu. Aikande is a Tanzanian social scientist, author and management consultant who has written extensively about the political and society of her home country. Much of her work focuses on international development, political economy and the role of religion in Tanzanian society.

Mary Lou McDonald has been the Leader of the Opposition to the Irish Government since 2020. She is also the leader of centre-left political party Sinn Fein, currently the second largest party in the Irish parliament (Dail). Since 2000, Sinn Fein has gone from being an extra-parliamentary party to being the most popular party in the Irish Republic, on course to win the next general election under McDonald. On the face of it, Sinn Fein's success seems reasonably straightforward; in a country with fast economic growth, but unequal distrubiton of opportunity, social service provision and housing, especially for young people, a party of the left has become popular.However, Sinn Fein also seeks to bring about a united Ireland, something which forces the party to reconcile the views, priorities and memories of its voters in the Irish Republic with those of its voters in Northern Ireland. These views, priorities and memories, as you're about to hear, are often hard to bring together. My guest today is Pat Leahy. Pat is the political editor of The Irish Times, and also the author of books on Ireland's political system, including The Price of Power: Inside Ireland's Crisis Coalition. 

Nayib Bukele has been the President of El Salvador since 2019. He has transformed the country from the nation with the world's highest murder rate to that with the world's highest incarceration rate, having arrested more than 70,000 people (1% of the population) in less than two years. His programme presents complicated trade offs and moral dilemmas; how much of your freedom would you be willing to submit for safety? Meanwhile, economic opportunity is still difficult to come by, as Bukele's government has done little to invest in social services, and instead has spent his time gentrifying the Salvadoran coastline and making Bitcoin legal tender. The deal Bukele has offered Salvadorans seems to be: you'll submit your civil liberties, I'll eradicate crime, but after that, you're on your own. My guest today is Ricardo Avelar. Ricardo is a Salvadoran journalist at Revista Factum, a digital magazine committed to bringing independent journalism to El Salvador.

Hezbollah is a Lebanese Shia Islamist militant group and political party, established in 1985. Hezbollah has a reputation as one of the Middle East's great agitators, having engaged Israel in conflict twice, once in the 1980s and again in 2006. Their financing by and allegiance to the Iranian ayatollah, the West's bogeyman in the region, underpins this image.But simply viewing Hezbollah as a regional troublemaker conceals an intriguing domestic story which is far more nuanced; in the context of Lebanon's sectarian strife, Hezbollah has consistently gone in to bat for the country's Shia Muslim population. For decades seen as the nation's underdog, patronised and belittled by Christians and Sunnis, Hezbollah has made it clear that Shia interests will no longer be dismissed out of hand.My guest today is Heiko Wimmen. Heiko is head of the Iraq-Syria-Lebanon project at the International Crisis Group, an independent organisation working to prevent wars and shape policies that will build a more peaceful world. Heiko, who is German by origin, has lived in the region, and mostly in Lebanon, since 1994, and has worked as a journalist, broadcast producer and researcher. As well as the group's history, we discuss the precarious situation of 2024, when another war between Hezbollah and Israel appears possible. 

Kim Yo Jong is the younger sister of the Supreme Leader of North Korea, Kim Jong Un. Since Jong Un's accession to power in 2011, he has placed his sister into positions of increasing importance domestically and increasing prominence internationally.The question is: is Jong Un following the advice of Michael Corleone, keeping his friends close but his enemies closer? Or is there genuine affection between Jong Un and Yo Jong? Furthermore, does Yo Jong have aspirations beyond playing second fiddle?My guest today is the author of a recent book about Kim Yo Jong. He is South Korean scholar Sung-Yoon Lee. Yoon is a Fellow at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. His book is The Sister: The extraordinary story of Kim Yo Jong, the most powerful woman in North Korea, which has been released to critical acclaim. 

Hafiz al-Assad was the President of Syria between 1970 and 2000. Father of present Syrian leader Bashar, Hafiz inherited a country in disarray, beset by political and religious division at home, and subject to interference from regional powers. Displaying extraordinary brutality, Hafiz imposed order on Syria's diverse population and also turned his country into an important decision maker. His troops intervened in Lebanon's dreadful civil war, and occupied large parts of the country for the rest of Hafiz's life. As well as cementing Hafiz's own position, this also strengthened Assad's hand in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Hafiz understood that for small countries, geopolitical success rests on making yourself difficult to be dispensed of, or overlooked. The career of my guest today shows how well Hafiz did this; in conjunction with his role as Israeli Ambassador to the United States, Itamar Rabinovich was Israel's Chief Negotiator with Syria from 1993 until 1996, at a time when many believed that peace between Israel and Palestine hinged upon Syrian recognition of Israel. Rabinovich has dedicated his life to researching Syria, and its relations (or lack thereof) with Israel, and is the author of 14 books on the country.

Alex Salmond was First Minister of Scotland between 2007 and 2014, during which time he led the unsuccessful referendum campaign for Scottish independence. Salmond was a ruthless political operator, who was difficult to pin down on the political spectrum. This made him the perfect candidate to spearhead the independence campaign, as he meant different things to different voters. This ambiguity can make it difficult for non-Scots, like me, to get to grips with the drive for independence.The guest I have chosen to discuss Salmond is Murray Pittock. Murray is a Scottish historian, and a professor of literature at the University of Glasgow. He is also the author of a large selection of works on Scottish history, including 2022's Scotland: The Global History: 1603 to the Present. As well as Salmond, we discuss the ideological variety inside the independence movement, Scotland's relationship to North Sea Oil, Scotland's experience with Blairism and New Labour, and the state of the SNP in 2024. 

Islam Karimov was the 1st President of Uzbekistan from 1991 until his death in 2016.  Terrified by the economic devastation which gripped Russia in the 1990s, Karimov decided that he would rather close the door firmly on market economics if the transition towards it risked even slightly going the same way as Uzbekistan's former masters. And so, Uzbekistan fossilised. The state retained ownership and control of industry. New collectivised farms were established. Foreign currencies were kept out - at least officially. Was Karimov right to do this? What were the trade offs involved? Should countries in the Global South be allowed to reject modernity? These are the dilemmas at the heart of today's episode.My guest today is Jen Murtazashvili. Jen is the Founding Director of the Center for Governance and Markets at the University of Pittsburgh, where she is also a Professor at the Graduate School of Public and International Affairs. She is a Nonresident Scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and lived and worked in Uzbekistan on behalf of the United States Agency for International Development during the 1990s and early 2000s, before being asked to leave by Karimov's government. 

Geert Wilders is a Dutch politician and longtime leader of the Party for Freedom (PVV), now the Netherlands' largest political party, following a surprise victory in the country's November election. Wilders has made a name for himself across Europe as the continent's most outspoken anti-Islam politician. Marine Le Pen might be more powerful and more widely known, but her rhetoric pails in comparison to that of Wilders, who has faced charges in court on incitement against Muslims, and who has lived under permanent police protection since 2004.When right wing populist insurgencies succeed in troubled countries- Argentina, Israel, or Italy- most people aren't surprised. But the Netherlands? Really? The Netherlands is about as similar to the UK as you can get. Whether you're uplifted or deflated by Wilders' success, you can't discount it as insignificant.My guest today is a return guest to the podcast; he is Guus Valk. Guus is the political editor of Dutch newspaper NRC, and was also my guest for an episode we recorded in August last year, about Pim Fortuyn, a figure who shares much in common with Wilders.

Hun Sen is the longest-serving prime minister in Cambodian history, having led the country from 1998 until August this year. Hun has a complex legacy; he has ruled with a rod of iron, showing little mercy towards his political opponents. But as my guest today says, he is also the man who has taken Cambodia from the years of Pol Pot to the ambiguous modernity of the present. The Cambodia of 2023 juxtaposes rural backwardness with newly booming urban centres populated with an emerging middle class who are increasingly detached from their country counterparts. This mixture of authoritarianism and capitalism has become a major theme of global politics in the last ten years, one of the reasons for which is the arrival, or re-arrival, of China onto the world stage. With the world becoming less democratic, Hun Sen may resemble the future of politics for many parts of the globe. My guest today is Sebastian Strangio. Sebastian is the Southeast Asia editor at the Diplomat, a current affairs magazine focusing on the Asia-Pacific Region. He is also the author of Cambodia: From Pol Pot to Hun Sen and Beyond, and In the Dragon's Shadow: Southeast Asia in the Chinese Century, which I would highly recommend. 

Vytautas Landsbergis led the modern Lithuanian independence movement in the late 1980s and early 1990s. Lithuania became the first of the fifteen Soviet Republics to declare independence from Moscow. This was a remarkably plucky move from such a small nation, but it changed the course of world history; two years later, Lithuania was an independent country, and the Soviet Union no longer existed.Thirty years later, Lithuania is once again looking east at a Russia probably intent on swallowing up the Baltics again. Lithuania is a strong democracy, and is probably more steadfast and serious about its democracy than many other countries in the West. And there's probably good reason for this; it knows democracy has maintenance costs, and it knows what it costs to leave democracy fall into disrepair. My guest today is Elisabeth Braw. Elisabeth is a Resident Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, where she focuses on deterrence against emerging forms of aggression. She is also an Associate Fellow at the European Leadership Network, and writes for Foreign Policy and Politico Europe. She also has a book coming out in February called Goodbye Globalisation. 

Abdel Fattah el-Sisi has been the President of Egypt since 2014. Egypt perennially struggles economically and politically, with high inflation, widespread youth unemployment and military dictatorship. In fact, Egypt has been under military dictatorship for nearly seventy uninterrupted years- nearly, because after the 2011 Egyptian Revolution, democratically elected Mohamed Morsi, of the Muslim Brotherhood, came to power. But he was soon deposed in a military coup in 2013. The man who took his place was Sisi, today's subject.But as you're about to hear, Sisi's Egypt is far from stable, his continued leadership far from assured. He walks a constant tightrope, lurching from one crisis to another, painfully aware that among his three immediate predecessors as President, one was assassinated, another forced to resign, and the third imprisoned, later dying behind bars. My guest today is Amy Hawthorne. Amy is a Middle East specialist who has formally worked with the US State Department, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and the Project in Middle East Democracy. As well as Sisi's leadership style and background, we discuss the 2011 Revolution, the Muslim Brotherhood, Egypt's dire economic situation, and Egypt's perspective on the War in Gaza.

Joe Biden has been President of the United States since 2021. However, this episode, unlike most others in this series, isn't biographical; rather, what my guest and I examine today, are the prospects for Joe Biden's re-election as US President next year, almost exactly one year out from the 2024 presidential election.On the surface of it, Joe Biden's polling numbers aren't appealing. 538, America's king of polling companies, puts his approval rating at 38%. My guest today, though, holds little-to-no regard for polling as a way of forecasting election outcomes. That guest is Allan Lichtman, and in the early 1980s, he devised a comprehensive model for predicting the outcomes of presidential elections. This model, the 13 Keys to the White House, offers the reader 13 questions provoking answers of either true or false.But here's the thing - the true or false questions mostly pertain to the performance of the president in office rather than the two campaigns, hence the general disregard for polling. The questions relate to matters such as foreign policy, economic management, internal party unity and scandal. If you place faith in the 13 Keys model, it shows you that Biden's poor approval rating has not yet stymied his campaign for re-election, and that a second term for the 46th President is still very much in play. So today, Allan and I go through the 13 Keys and assess how the President is lining up against them. DISCLAIMER: Allan hasn't made his prediction for the 2024 election yet, and any assumptions made in this podcast about the way some keys might turn out in the future are all my assumptions. This is another way of saying that not all of the 13 true/false questions can be answered just yet. But some can, and they provide important insights into Joe Biden's performance as US president thus far.

Alex Jones is an American political commentator, new media personality, and conspiracy theorist. Conspiracy theory- which we will here define as attributing the occurrence of events or phenomena to sinister or secret organisations- infects all parts of the political spectrum and exists across the World. However, to a certain portion of the American right, conspiracy theory does not merely influence their thinking; it is their thinking. Any government programme or action is interpreted as an insidious attempt by a secret cabal of bureaucrats to enhance their own power. Jones' pronouncements- most notoriously his claims that the victims of the Sandy Hook school shooting were paid actors- are so strange and extreme that they serve as a way of allowing people to push conspiracy theory to the far-right, and of allowing people to claim that their own views are based in truth and objectivity. Any suggestion of government conspiracy at all is now pilloried as crazy and fringe. But where does this leave us when the Government, and the establishment media, does act dishonestly, as they do from time to time? Clearly, we cannot live in a society where the public almost by default does not trust anything the government tells it. But nor can we live in a society where the public blithely accepts everything authority figures do or say, either. We all have a responsibility to examine information critically, and this is important whether it comes from Alex Jones or Emily Maitlis, Tucker Carlson or Chris Cuomo.My guest today is Elizabeth Williamson. Elizabeth is a features writer for the New York Times who has covered Jones extensively, especially in relation to his legal troubles surrounding the Sandy Hook School shooting. As well as taking about Jones, we discuss the importance of conspiracy theory to the American far right, the rise of fringe movements in the country since the 1990s, and how the mainstream media can begin to regain the trust it has lost.

Today's podcast looks at one of the most important and intricate stories in recent American history; the role of the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) in the run up to, and aftermath of, the 2016 Presidential Election. The episode's subject, Robert Mueller, was the FBI Director before the election, but became infamous for his role as Special Counsel to the US Department of Justice, for which he investigated alleged collusion between the campaign of Donald Trump and actors linked to the Russian state. Mueller's role in the 2016 election and the Trump presidency symbolises a consensus around the security services and law enforcement which the US is rapidly losing- a poll from January 2023 conducted by APM Research found that 51% of Republicans believe the FBI is biased against Donald Trump, and 43% of Gen Z - those born after 1997 - believe the FBI is biased against the left. Of course, trust has to be earned, and the history of the FBI hasn't always inspired such feeling. But just as you shouldn't blindly trust an institution, you also shouldn't not trust it as a default position either. If American democracy is to survive, its people have to be willing to find a medium between these two positions.My guest today is Devlin Barrett. Devlin is a reporter at The Washington Post, whose work focuses on the FBI, the US Department of Justice, and US law enforcement. He is also the author of October Surprise: How the FBI Tried to Save Itself and Crashed an Election, which focuses on the time period we discuss today.

At the heart of Australia's security policy lies a crucial question; should Australia, a country situated thousands of kilometres away from the Asian landmass, defend itself by casting out on the Pacific Ocean and pushing militarily towards Asia? As is often said, attack is the best form of defence…This is certainly the view taken by the signatories of AUKUS- a 2021 security partnership between Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States, under the terms of which Australia will contribute heavily to the United States' fleet of nuclear submarines- with the strong implication that these submarines will be used to counter growing Chinese military influence in the Indo-Pacific.Today's guest sees this offensive strategy and unrealistic and mistaken. Instead, he suggests that Australia should take advantage of its geographic isolation and focus on defending its own shores; assume China will come to Australia one day, and build sufficient military capacity to deter their aggression in the meantime. He is, therefore, one of Australia's AUKUS Skeptics, the namesake for today's episode. That guest is Sam Roggeveen, Director of the Lowy Institute's International Security Programme, and author of a new book called The Echidna Strategy: Australia's Search for Power and Peace. The Echidna Strategy is the name Sam gives to his preferred conception of Australian security. 

Gabriele D'Annunzio was an Italian writer, journalist and poet who wrote himself irrevocably into history in 1919. In the chaotic aftermath of World War One, D'Annunzio led a small band of irregular Italian forces to the Free City of Rijeka (Italian name Fiume), and seized it in the name of Italian irredentism. D'Annunzio proclaimed the Free City to be the new Italian Regency of Carnario, with himself as Comandante and Duce. My guest's stories about what happened in The Regency of Carnaro during its short existence make Anthony Burgess' descriptions of London in A Clockwork Orange sound gentile, with sex, drugs and a glorification of violence impossible to ignore.Though the Regency quickly fell apart, D'Annunzio's bombastic political style rolled the pitch for the fascist takeover of Italy in 1922, with Benito Mussolini proclaiming D'Annunzio "The John the Baptist of Italian fascism". My guest today is Lucy Hughes-Hallett. Lucy is a British historian who has written books about a variety of different historical figures, including Cleopatra, Sir Francis Drake, Achilles, and our subject today. Her book on Gabriele D'Annunzio is The Pike, for which Lucy won the 2013 Samuel Johnson Prize for Nonfiction, and the Costa Book Award.

Hugo Chávez was the President of Venezuela from 1999 until his death in 2013. Despite attempts to harness Venezuela's enormous oil revenues for the public good, Chávez left behind a country riddled with economic problems and with little to show for the President's claim to build socialism in the 21st century. Billions of dollars in oil revenues were hoovered up by corrupt elites. Promises of new hospitals, schools and roads went undelivered. 16,000 Venezuelans were murdered each year under Chávez's leadership- the equivalent of nearly 35,000 murders happening in the UK every single year. Venezuela now has the highest rate of inflation in any country in the World, and many millions of Venezuelans have fled the country. Was another path possible? Given America's distaste for socialism on the American continent, is the noteworthy thing about Chávez not what his project did or did not deliver, but that it got off the ground at all? Has the so-called Monroe Doctrine rendered a moderate approach to left politics in Latin America totally impossible? These are the fundamental questions my guest and I grapple with in today's conversation. That guest is Phil Gunson. Phil is a British journalist and the Andes Senior Project Manager at the International Crisis Group, and has lived in Caracas, Venezuela's capital, since the start of the Chávez presidency nearly 25 years ago. 

Ariel Sharon served as prime minister of Israel between 2001 and 2006. As a politician and military leader, Sharon always courted controversy. He frequently ignored the orders of his superiors in an attempt to push further into Arab territory and as a politician infamously visited Al-Aqsa Mosque on Temple Mount, sparking riots and terror attacks. Most notoriously of all, he was found responsible for the 1982 Massacre at Sabra and Shatila, where thousands of Palestinians and Lebanese Muslims were slaughtered by Lebanese Christians in territory controlled by Israeli forces.This might lead one to conclude that Sharon the politician is the recipient of unconditional praise by the Israeli hard right. But in the highly polarised environment of 2023, this isn't the case; as prime minister, a post Sharon held between 2001 and 2006, he presided over Israel's disengagement from the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, something which angered the so called “Settlers”- Jews who live in lands occupied after the Six Day War of 1967.My guest today is Einat Wilf. Einat is an Israeli politician and author who served as a member of the Knesset- Israel's Parliament- from 2010 until 2013. She also served as a foreign policy advisor to another Israeli prime minister and President, Shimon Peres, and in this capacity encountered Sharon in the final years of his political career. 

Barack Obama served as the 44th President of the United States between 2009 and 2017. For early Gen Zers like me, he was the most recognisable politician of our childhood. For those who voted for him, and for many others around the World, his message of Hope and Change was a vessel for their aspirations; aspirations which, amid the fallout from the 2008 financial crisis, had been dealt a serious blow. But for all Obama's mesmerising campaigning in 2008, two facts remain stubbornly true about his presidency. One; Obama was never as popular inside America as he was in internationally. And secondly, the polarisation that has come to define American politics since the 1990s reached new heights during Obama's two terms in the White House.This is intriguing, as Obama's presidency was not nearly as distinguished or notable as his campaign, or the man himself. Obama was a centrist liberal president, but not a progressive one. So why, after such a conventional presidency, was the backlash to the Obama presidency quite so ferocious? And what does the backlash tell us about the state of American politics?My guest today is Peter Baker. Peter is the Chief White House Correspondent for the New York Times, and he also worked as a reporter for the Washington Post for 20 years. He has seen the presidency close up under five occupants of the White House, so it's fair to say he was a fitting guest for the podcast's 100th episode. 

Yoon Suk Yeol has been the President of South Korea since May 2022. A public prosecutor until two years ago, Yoon won the Presidency on a knife-edge, having thrown in his lot with the "New Right", a pro-American, capitalist faction which rails against the cultural liberalism espoused by Korean progressives. His election suggests a degree of cultural polarisation, but debates over economic policy since Yoon took office has been relatively narrow and non-polarised. This is perhaps an indication that the country's democracy, amid a looming demographic crisis, is in fact fairly stable.My guest today is Jack Greenberg. Jack is a Global Korea Scholar at the National Institute for International Education, Korea University. In a wide ranging interview, we discussed: the end of the South Korean dictatorship in 1987, the pervasiveness of corruption in the country today, the effect North Korean proximity has had on the South's politics, South Korean's obsessive relationship to education and work, and the country's prospects in the medium term. 

Erich Mielke was the head of East Germany's Ministry of State Security- also known as The Stasi- from 1957 until the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989. Given the Stasi has a reputation as perhaps the most meticulous secret police service in history, Mielke, hardened by the communist underworld of Weimar Germany, the Spanish Civil War and a Second World War labour camp, certainly has a lot to answer for. Mielke, and the Stasi, were the product of the creation of an inorganic, unnatural unit in East Germany. A communist country unloved and unwanted by its international protector, the Soviet Union, East Germany was not a country anybody in it had envisaged before it emerged onto the World map in 1949. It is impossible to separate the Stasi's influence from this challenging origin story.My guest for today's episode is Katja Hoyer. Katja is a German historian, journalist and writer who was born in East Germany and was a young child when the Berlin Wall collapsed in 1989. She is the author of two books: Blood and Iron, which examines the 1871-1918 German Empire, and, pertinent to this conversation, Beyond the Wall, which was released this year and sheds new light on life in East Germany.

Mohamed bin Zayed has been the de facto leader of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) since 2014, and the federation's President since 2022. Bin Zayed, or MbZ, has presided over a massive centralisation of power into the hands of the Abu Dhabi elite, and particularly his ruling family, the al-Nahyans. This has helped to construct an image of the UAE as being orderly, stable and dependable for global powers.However, this image hides a dreadful human rights record in the UAE, characterised by coercion, harassment, renunciation of citizenship, and torture. In addition, the UAE have used these methods of repression against foreigners. One such person is my guest today. He is Matthew Hedges. Matthew is a British academic and author of Reinventing the Sheikhdom, which details the methods by which Mohamed bin Zayed has brought the state under his control. In May 2018, whilst researching the book, Matthew was prevented from boarding his flight at Abu Dhabi International, detained, and subjected to torture for the next six months. His story is horrifying, but fascinating, and reveals a great deal about the UK-UAE relationship. 

Golda Meir served as prime minister of Israel from 1969 until 1974. Taking control of her country during a period of euphoria after the 1967 Six Day War, Meir was a member of Israel's founding generation. However, Israel's sense of infallibility was shattered after a surprise attack by Egypt and Syria, in what became the Yom Kippur War. Though Israel defeated its Arab neighbours for the third time in 25 years, Meir was quickly accused of complacency and unpreparedness, and resigned in near disgrace just 8 months after the conflict in 1974. But is this fair? Did Yom Kippur, as well as Meir's political style, which quickly became outdated after she left office, invalidate her earlier achievements? Today's episode seeks to shed light on this and more.My guest today is Blake Flayton. Blake is a columnist with the Jewish Journal, an independent newspaper serving the Jewish community of Los Angeles. As well as Golda Meir's career, we discuss the fraught founding of Israel in 1948, and the prospects for the Israeli left, which in recent years has lost ground to an even greater extent than the left in European countries

Hafizullah Amin was the communist leader of Afghanistan for three ill-fated months in 1979. The end of his time in power- also the end of his life- marked the start of Afghanistan's descent into a forty year war. So disastrous was Amin's time in power that my guest considers him possibly the worst man in modern Afghan history. Amin reveals that most things in politics, and in war, are not inevitable. Countries end up the way they are, often due to choices, but also due to happenstance; as you're about to hear, Amin was very lucky to even reach 50th birthday, even though it would be his last. Amin's luck turned out to be Afghanistan's deep misfortune. My guest today is Stephan Jensen. Stephan was an officer in the Norwegian Army, and in that capacity served in Mali and Afghanistan. He is currently writing a book on Afghanistan, titled The Triumph of Chaos: A History of the War in Afghanistan 1978-2021, which will be released next year. As well as Amin's life, we delve into the Afghanistan Amin left behind, and whether the country will ever recover the relatively benign government it had before 1978. 

Kais Saied has been the President of Tunisia since 2019. Just a few short years ago, Saied was a constitutional law professor, and Tunisia was seen as the only success story of the uprisings known as the Arab Spring. Now, Tunisia is slipping back into autocracy.Why didn't Tunisia's flirtation with democracy work? Should we be surprised it didn't work? What lessons do the last twelve years hold for other countries- and indeed, for future generations of Tunisians? These are the questions my guest and I grapple with today. My guest today is Sarah Yerkes. Sarah has extensive experience studying and working in Tunisia, having worked as a Foreign Affairs Officer and Policy Planner at the US State Department. Now, Sarah is a Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.  

The Arctic Five are the five countries with coastlines on the Arctic Ocean. They are: Canada, Russia, Norway; through Alaska, The United States; and through Greenland, Denmark. This collection of five countries we will use as a bridge to discussing the geopolitics of one of the world's least visited, least talked about and least understood regions. Due to its remoteness and its emptiness, the Arctic is an object in World affairs; that is to say, it is a region that has things done to it, rather than doing things or deciding things, itself. This passivity is deeply unfortunate, given that the future of normal life on Planet Earth depends so completely on the future of a relatively normal climate in the Arctic. My guest today is Dr Becca Pincus. Becca is the Director of the Polar Institute at the Wilson Center, and conducts regular research on the behaviour of the Arctic States. We discuss the effects of and solutions to climate change in the Arctic, the extent of climate scepticism in today's Republican Party, the ability for the smaller Arctic countries to affect policy change, and why Donald Trump wanted to buy Greenland off Denmark. 

In a special episode of the podcast, I speak to three former guests about the divergent fortunes and trajectories of the governments in Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Russia. In Turkey, Erdogan is emboldened following an election victory unexpected in some quarters; in Saudi Arabia, MBS is cautiously reforming the country's domestic and foreign policy in a bid to extend its longevity; in Russia, Vladimir Putin's regime is seemingly on the verge of collapse. My guests for this episode are: Eni Enrico Mattei senior fellow for Middle East and Africa studies, Steven A. Cook; New York Times reporter and author of Blood and Oil, Justin Scheck; and Associate Fellow on the Chatham House Russia and Eurasia Programme, John Lough.

Rauf Denktash was the President of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus from 1983 until 2005. Given its crucial geopolitical position in the Eastern Med, Cyprus has been contested by different powers for centuries. In the modern day, this contestation occurs between Greece and Turkey, something compounded by the fact that Greeks and Turks both lived on the island and make up the Island's two largest ethnic groups. In 1974, following a Greek-backed coup on the island, Turkey annexed the Northern half of Cyprus, and established the Republic over which Denktash presided for more than two decades.Like Kosovo for Serbia, Cyprus poses a cautionary tale for nationalists, teaching them that they shouldn't fixate on a piece of land that they will never be able to fully control. The Cyprus that Denktash believed in only ever existed in his mind, as he found out in 2003, when he opened the gates between Turkish and Greek Cyprus. To his astonishment, the people he had expected to throw themselves at one another in another episode of sectarian violence merely looked at one another, and carried on.My guest today met Denktash many times, and is a true authority on Cyprus, having lived there for many years. He is James Ker-Lindsay, a visiting professor at LSEE, a London School of Economics research centre on South Eastern Europe. James also has a popular eponymous YouTube channel with over 100k subscribers, where he discusses various international conflicts and disputes. He is also due to move back to Cyprus very soon. 

Khorloogiin Choibalsan was the leader of Communist Mongolia from 1939 until 1952. Known as "The Stalin of the Steppe", his life changed in 1933 when he agreed to become Stalin's lackey under the threat of execution for supposed collusion with Japanese spies. This led Choibalsan to execute three percent of the Mongolian population in Purges commensurate with Stalin's. His career offers a fascinating insight into the character of Stalin, and also poses an interesting question as to how small countries such as Mongolia often have to settle for partial independence, if they wish to be free at all. My guest today is Christopher P. Atwood. Chris is a professor of Mongolian and Chinese history at the University of Pennsylvania, and has spent is career studying the Mongolian language and history. He also recently translated The Secret History of the Mongols, a semi-mythical account of the life of Genghis Khan, and the oldest surviving work in the Mongolian language. 

James Callaghan was the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom between 1976 and 1979. He is also the only person to have held the UK's four Great Offices of State: Chancellor of the Exchequer, Home Secretary, Foreign Secretary, and Prime Minister. This episode is the next in the "Rather Less Horrible" Series, where my guest and I discuss politicians less unpleasant than most of the others on the podcast, but whose careers still hold important lessons. Callaghan's time in power is a lesson in collective leadership; having kept his Labour Government together in a time of high inflation, low growth and strikes. Rishi Sunak, who faces similar challenges, would do well to take note of this prime minister somewhat forgotten in modern British politics. My guest today is a particularly special one given our subject; she is James Callaghan's daughter, Baroness Margaret Jay. Margaret had a unique perspective on her father's long political career, and also later served as a minister in the Tony Blair government. 

Amfilohije Radović was Metropolitan- a high ranking position in the Orthodox Church- of Montenegro and the Littoral from 1990 until his death in 2020. Amfilohije was a member of the Serbian Orthodox Church, which also wields considerable influence in Montenegro. Serbia and Montenegro were joined in federation until 2006, when Montenegro voted to become an independent country. He was one of the key figures in a cultural conflict intrinsic to Montenegrin politics: should the country be a loyal ally of the Government in Belgrade, perhaps ruled by it directly, or should it govern its own affairs? Amfilohije was never coy about expressing his own opinions on this matter, and in 2019 led nationwide protests which saw the country elect a pro-Serb government the next year. Montenegro might be in NATO, it might be negotiating to join the EU, and it might have a veneer of a pro-Western place, but its place in the Western fold is by no means guaranteed. My guest today is Ljubomir Filipović. Ljubomir is a Montenegrin political scientist who focuses on foreign influence and information integrity. He is frequently invited onto global media channels to discuss developments in the Western Balkans, and works with the Atlantic Council of Montenegro and the McCain Institute. 

Muhammadu Buhari served as the President of Nigeria between 2015 and 2023, having left office three weeks ago. Buhari is a longstanding character in Nigerian politics, having run for President five times, and led the country as a military dictator in the 1980s. The administration of Nigeria is made almost impossible by the intertwined issues of ethnic, linguistic and religious division, corruption, terrorism, poverty and population pressures. By the standards of Nigerian politicians, Buhari came to power with relatively good intentions to reform the state, and did not engage in the corrupt activity that ensnared so many others. But did he succeed? Given the challenges facing any Nigerian politics, was success, however defined, possible at all? That is the question at the heart of today's episode. My guest today is Ufuoma Egbamuno. Ufuoma is a Nigerian journalist who currently leads the Nigeria Info newsroom. He reports and tweets (@foskolo) on a wide range of subjects outside politics, including popular culture and sport. 

Dragan Čović is one of the most powerful politicians in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Bosnia's political system, the most complicated anywhere in the World, is designed to give the country's three ethnic groups- Bosniaks, Serbs and Croats- equal representation in government. This sounds reasonable- until one considers that Croats only make up 15% of the population. Čović is the man who has, for over twenty years, manipulated the political system to extract benefits for the Croats. My guest today would wager that the Bosnian Croats, who are Catholic, are much more powerful than the Muslim Bosniaks, who represent half of the country's population. Worse still, he sees Čović, and the Bosnian Croats, as an instrument by which the Western powers keep Christians in charge of one of the only Muslim majority countries in Europe. My guest today is Reuf Bajrović. Reuf is the Vice President of the US-Europe Alliance in Washington D.C, and a Fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute. He was also the Bosnian Minister for Energy, Mining and Industry in 2015. 

Christopher Hitchens was an Anglo-American writer, journalist, literary critic and essayist. Not a thinker who one can characterise easily, the one thing linking all Hitchens' writing and his utterances- he was a formidable debater- was his opposition to totalitarian thought. This often sparked controversy- especially his views on Islam and his support for the War in Iraq- but for all the descriptions of him as a shallow contrarian, the authenticity of his opposition to totalitarian ideologies cannot be denied. My guest today is Alex O'Connor. Alex is the founder of the Cosmic Skeptic YouTube channel and associated blog and podcast, where discusses issues principally related to ethics and religion. As well as Hitchens' life and work, we discuss the future of religion in Britain and the wider Western World. The Realists UncensoredHey future listeners, it's Checkers and MJ here and we are two American men that are...Listen on: Apple Podcasts Spotify

Józef Piłsudski was the founding father of modern day Poland, and the country's most significant political figure from its formation in 1918 until his death in 1935. Initially a committed democrat who wished to see a Poland free for ethnic minorities to live in, Piłsudski eventually decided that his fellow Poles were not enlightened enough to accept his vision of a free and multi-ethnic Poland, and ruled effectively by decree after 1926.But Piłsudski's story is much more than a simple case of fledgling democrat turned dictator; indeed, his leadership of Poland reveals the centrality of the country to developments in Europe throughout the interwar period. All people know of Interwar Poland is its invasion by the Nazis in 1939, but there is much more to it than that. My guest today is Joshua D. Zimmerman. Joshua is an associate professor at Yeshiva University in New York, where he holds the Chair in Holocaust Studies and East European Jewish History. He is also the author of Jozef Pilsudski: Founding Father of Modern Poland. The Realists UncensoredHey future listeners, it's Checkers and MJ here and we are two American men that are...Listen on: Apple Podcasts Spotify

Robert Muldoon served as prime minister of New Zealand from 1975 to 1984. His direct, bullying style of leadership, which he claimed represented “government of the ordinary bloke”, made waves across the world, and is reminiscent of the tactics of modern demagogues like Donald Trump and Jair Bolsonaro. Muldoon also represented a New Zealand still intertwined with Britain, its former imperial master, and closed off to the rest of the World. That New Zealand has since largely died, and the country has become more liberal, more open and more culturally at ease with itself. In this sense, Muldoon's story might tell us much about the changing Commonwealth, and whether the Crown abroad, on the weekend of the Coronation of a new monarch, has a future.My guest today is Bernard Hickey. Bernard is an independent New Zealand journalist and political commentator, he has a very informative and wide-ranging Substack newsletter called The Kaka, which I recommend to you all. The Hated and the Dead now has its own website. Please do share the website with as many people as you can, and post it to your social media feeds.