Geopolitics with Frank McKenna

For the first time in four months of our podcast series, the focus of Frank's attention is not centered around tariffs. This month Frank starts with a detailed analysis of Prime Minister Carney's cabinet, a carefully constructed team of ministers balancing geographic, gender and ethnic interests from across the country. Frank addresses comments from Alberta's Premier Danielle Smith on separation, suggesting she would be better off leading than following her base of support. On a positive note, Smith seemed more bullish on the prospects for energy infrastructure builds across the country following comments from Quebec Premier Legault, who previously did not support building pipelines through his province. Frank discussed Prime Minister Carney's visit to the Whitehouse where he received good marks for his messaging on Canada's sovereignty which did not require confrontation with the President. We then move the discussion to global issues, covering handshake trade deals, the conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, which Frank suggests are closer to the end than the beginning, and the recent flare up between Pakistan and India in Kashmir. He finishes with a suggestion that the Jays are better than their record, a point of view that was not supported by the normally bullish podcast host. This podcast was recorded on May 21, 2025. Chapter Headings:01:28 - The Carney Cabinet06:21 - Smith and Alberta Separation12:50 - Spending on Energy Infrastructure21:53 - Bullish Tone for Canada28:50 - Carney and Trump34:36 - Trump and Tariffs40:30 - Is Trump's Nobel Prize Slipping Away?43:31 - India-Pakistan Flare Up  For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

In Episode 64, Frank covers the Canadian election from top to bottom, including addressing unflattering comments about Canada as a country from the leader of the Bloc Quebecois and the Premier of Alberta. Frank addresses each of the major platform concerns of Western leaders as it relates to natural resource and pipeline development including Bill C69, the energy cap and industrial carbon tax.  He provides a 101 lesson on equalization payments, a source of frustration for Western provinces who typically are not recipients of transfers from the Federal Government by virtue of low tax bases and resource reserves.  The episode then shifts to Canada-US relations, where Frank addresses President Trump's interference with the Canadian election and expectations for renegotiation of a trilateral trade agreement, which he suggests Canada reluctantly pursue, but with eyes wide open and asks from the north side of the border.  He finishes with an update on the war in Ukraine and, of course, laments the state of play of his beloved Toronto Blue Jays. This podcast was recorded on April 29, 2025. Chapter Headings: 00:29 - First Take on Election Results and Future of Unelected Pierre Poilievre09:34 - Regional Interests Take Centre Stage13:17 - Addressing Western Canadian Demands28:17 - Equalization Payments36:26 - Trump and the Canadian Election42:50 - The 90 Day Tariff Negotiation48:00 - Back and Forth on Russia-Ukraine  For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

In Episode 63, the focus of discussions in on two main topics: new Prime Minister Mark Carney's early days at the helm of Canada, and tariffs. Frank discusses Carney's decision to travel to Europe before the US, a move that was criticized by Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe, and the significant downsizing of the new Liberal cabinet, a move that was sure to hurt some feelings inside the caucus. Frank provides the pros and cons of choosing Carney or Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre to represent Canada in negotiations with President Trump, and he debunks the recent claims by former Prime Minister Stephen Harper that Carney didn't deserve credit for Canada's response to the GFC. In the tariff discussion, Frank dismisses Trump's repeated exaggerations about trade deficits equaling some sort of subsidy provided to Canada from the US.  Frank counters that the existing trade deficit is not a subsidy that costs the United States jobs, instead it is a function of our abundance of raw material inputs that the United States imports from Canada. Frank also lays to rest any notion that Canada's dairy sector is not open for business with US suppliers; in fact, the US has yet to use up more than ½ of its dairy quotas with Canada since the 2018 CUSMA agreement set new free trade supply limits. Frank finishes with some ideas for Canada's government to meet its NATO spending commitments, and his belief in the need to keep momentum moving forward with respect to the elimination of intra-provincial trade barriers. This podcast was recorded on March 17, 2025.           Chapter Headings 00:25 - Friendship Day in Colorado03:44 - Carney's Cabinet and First Trip to Europe09:02 - Carney or Poilievre – Who is Best Positioned to Negotiate with Trump?14:28 - Carney on Taxes16:41 - Harper on Carney's Contribution to Canada's GFC Response19:03 - Two East Coast Premiers Retire – is this Coincidence?21:12 - Trump's Exaggerations Used to Justify Tariffs on Canada28:38 - Meeting NATO Defense Spending Target36:24 - Understanding Dairy Quotas – Not Just a Canada Issue48:08 - Is Momentum for Removing Intra-Provincial Trade Barriers Sustainable?50:25 - Caught in the Blue Jays Vortex…Again For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

In Episode 62, Frank is joined by Chris Krueger of TD Cowen's Washington Research Group to discuss the first 30 days of the Trump Administration, and the on-going trade war with Canada. Chris outlines his biggest surprises to date, including the sheer torque of rulemaking from the executive branch - he figures his team in Washington undershot the runway when it suggested Trump 2.0 would be "all gas, no break."Frank provides insights into Canada's strategy for defending itself and thinks the current alignment across the country will be key to victory against the US tariffs, but he agrees with former Prime Minister Harper in suggesting that Canadians will need to be prepared to endure some hardships through this difficult period. He also explains the meaning of Interprovincial trade barriers, suggesting that they act as a 7% tariff on goods moving from province to province.  Chris also shares his biggest surprises to date in Trump's second term, including the influence of Elon Musk. Both Chris and Frank think that the right leaning Supreme Court will give Trump leeway to continue his changes in Washington but will keep some guardrails in place.This podcast was recorded on February 18, 2025.Chapter Headings03:23 Newfoundland Premier's “Chilling” Feedback from Trump Team10:38 Next Steps on Canada-US Tariff Debate15:40 Will Supreme Court Support Guard Rails for Executive Branch?24:40 Flooding the Zone to Change the Narrative in US31:22 Elon Musk's Influence on Whitehouse  For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

Episode 61 is a deep dive into Canadian politics. Frank starts by handicapping the Liberal leadership race to elect Canada's next Prime Minister, a leader whose first order of business will be filling the leadership vacuum in Ottawa as Canada fights back against tariff threats from President Trump. He reminds Canada's provincial leaders of the importance of putting aside regional differences in favor of a Team Canada approach.  Frank takes listeners back to Economics 101 where he discusses the theory of comparative advantage, while suggesting that businesses on both sides of the border are holding back investment while the period of tariff uncertainty continues. He addresses the trolling by President Trump of Canada and makes a passionate plea to Americans to understand that while we are friends, we want to remain Canadian. The conversation then moves to global affairs where we discuss the Israel-Hamas peace agreement, the likely end of the Ukraine War and other potential hot spots for geopolitics, including one that is surprisingly close to home. This podcast was recorded on January 20, 2025.          Chapter Headings00:50 - The Race to be Canada's Prime Minister06:24 - Trump Tariff Decision on Hold10:20 - Leadership Vacuum in Ottawa11:50 - Economics 101 – Tariffs and Comparative Advantage14:45 - Canada's Response to the Wildfires in LA18:12 - Governor Trudeau and Manifest Destiny23:06 - Justin Trudeau's Legacy and Biggest Regret26:50 - Identity Politics30:40 - Predicting the Election Outcome32:35 - Does the Israel-Hamas Peace Agreement Have Legs?36:30 - The Trump Oligarchy37:40 - Zelensky's Dealmaking with Trump39:42 - Other Potential Geopolitical Hot Spots in 2025 For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

Episode 60 is dominated by recent events in Ottawa, a period Frank describes as the most chaotic in his lifetime. Frank first dissects the decision by Chrystia Freeland to resign from her post as Minister of Finance prior to delivering the Liberal Government's Fall Economic Statement. He then provides an update on next steps for the Liberal Party including his expectation that Prime Minister Trudeau will resign, perhaps after his own walk in the snow. Next it is on to the important task at hand, that is preparing to confront President Elect Trump's tariff threats, a topic Frank discussed with Canada's Premiers at precisely the same time Freeland resigned. The discussion then moves to international affairs, including budget issues in Europe and South Korea, as well as the warp speed of events in Syria and the rest of the Middle East. The discussion finishes in the same place it always does, with both Frank and Peter bemoaning the state of their beloved Toronto Blue Jays. This podcast was recorded on December 17, 2024.Chapter Headings 00:50 - Freeland's Shock Resignation07:58 - Next Steps for Trudeau's Government12:28 - Framing Canada's Response to Trump's Tariffs24:50 - Democracy in South Korea27:23 - The End of Assad's Reign of Terror in Syria For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

Frank is back from a vacation in the Far East, and he is fired up to talk about the US Election and its implications for global geopolitics. We cover Trump's controversial cabinet picks. Frank is supportive of Marco Rubio as Secretary of State, and Rubio will have his hands full with very active global hot spots in Russia, China, and the Middle East. The conversation ends with the new US Administration's implications on Canada, including whether Canada and the USMCA will be on the inside or outside of Trump's proposed tariff wall, and timing for a Canadian election. This podcast was recorded on November 21, 2024. Chapter Headings 1:00 – Frank's Unique Take on the Election Result5:07 - Handicapping Complex Senate Confirmations12:16 - Elon Musk's New Role Running DOGE, the Department not the Coin17:52  – Comparing Cabinet Appointment Process in US vs Parliamentary System20:07 – Are We Nearing the End Game in Russia?28:16 - The Future of USMCA and Relationship with Mexico31:47 - The Latest on Timing for a Canadian Election For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

In this special edition of Geopolitics, we check in on a post-election panel discussion at the 25th Annual TD Securities Portfolio Management and Market Structure Conference.  With Frank Mckenna out of the country, Geopolitics host Peter Haynes is  joined by The Honorable Rona Ambrose, Deputy Chairwoman of TD Securities and Chris Krueger, Geopolitics Expert at TD Cowen's The Washington Research Group to discuss the surprising US Election results and its implications for Canada-US relations.    Rona also takes time to discuss the political backdrop in Canada and potential for an election north of the border in the next few months. Chapter Headings: 1:00 – The Outstanding Races – When Will They Be Decided?4:30 – Rona's Biggest Surprise10:10 – The Future of USMCA and Canada's Minerals and Water15:55 – Trump's Potential Cabinet Appointments23:10 – Tariffs, Immigration and Ukraine29:00 – The 411 on Pierre Poilievre36:40 – Key Dates Until Inauguration For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

In Episode 57, Frank invites Chris Krueger, TD Cowen's Washington politics expert, to the podcast to discuss the upcoming November 5th US Election and key factors that will determine who wins the Presidential race.  Frank explains the importance of the election outcome to Canada, noting that if Trump is true to his word (and there is no reason to doubt him), then a Republican victory would lead to a weakening (if not outright end) of multilateralism globally. While the USMCA might survive, the threat of unilateral tariffs will overhang Canada-US relations for the duration of the next Administration. We discuss down ballet Congressional votes, which according to both Frank and Chris are likely to lead to a split Congress. Chris also weighs in on the risk of outlier events disrupting the peaceful transition of power. We wrap up with Frank's take on the Federal Liberal Caucus revolt, and the likelihood that Prime Minister Trudeau stays on through the next election in Canada, especially considering incumbent defeats in provincial elections from coast to coast. Chapter Headings: 0:55 - Is the US Election the Most Consequential in History?2:11 - Key Variables that Will Decide the Outcome8:58 - USMCA – Threat of Unilateral Sanctions from a Trump Administration14:07 - Will the Prime Minister Push Biden to Resolve Softwood Lumber Dispute?16:50 - Risk of Outlier Events Disrupting Peaceful Transition of Power27:02 - Trump Tax Breaks and Debt Ceiling33:19 - Placing Bets on the Winner36:28 - Liberal Caucus Revolt and Likelihood Trudeau Stays on Through Next Election For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

Episode 56 is a mostly Made in Canada geopolitical discussion. Frank covers the NDP decision to end its supply and confidence agreement with Prime Minister Trudeau and his Liberal Party, leading to speculation of a snap election soon in Canada.  Frank handicaps the three provincial elections in Canada in October in BC, Saskatchewan and his home province of New Brunswick where it is a close race dictated by regional differences in voter preferences.  As two months have passed without a decision by Trudeau to step down, it appears to Frank like the Prime Minister will stay on to lead the Liberals through the next election.  Frank puts concern over border security in Quebec in perspective as minor in comparison to the southern border of the US and then finishes the conversation with US election predictions and a discussion on the disturbing escalation in tensions between Israel and Hezbollah. Chapter Headings 00:46 - NDP Ends Supply and Confidence – What is its Calculus?03:35 - Tick Tock – Time Passes and Trudeau is Still Leader07:52 - Handicapping Three Provincial Elections in October13:27 - Frank Meets Liberal Cabinet on CAD-US Relations – Takeaways18:30 - Border Security – Quebec-New York State24:22 - Canada's Obsessions with US Politics – Is it Unhealthy?26:38 - 40 Days Until the US Election31:49 - Israel's Pre-Emptive Strike on Hezbollah For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

In Episode 55, Frank discusses Ukrainian tactics in its war with Russia, suggesting that the incursion into Russian territory and recent drone attacks are more than just bargaining chips.  Crossing back to North America, we discuss the on-going love in with the Harris-Walz ticket, and the importance of Trump vs Harris on September 10.  Frank downplays the significance of an RFK Jr defection to Trump's camp as it remains unclear whether the existence of RFK Jr as a third-party candidate helps or hurts the Republicans.  Before we finish with our proverbial critique of the Jays, Frank offers his thoughts on the importance of public-private partnerships in fixing Canada's aging infrastructure. Chapter Headings 05:22 - Ukraine's Aggressive Move into Russia11:14 - Democrats Control the News Cycle18:24 - Is RFK Important to Trump?23:57 - Trudeau's Calculus28:20 - How to Fix Canada's Aging Infrastructure This podcast was recorded on August 21, 2024 For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

Who says the summer is boring?  In Episode 54, Frank admits there is not enough time in the day to keep up with the current geopolitical landscape.  After a brief history of Frank's storied career, this month's discussion moves quickly to President Biden's decision to not seek re-election, the rise of Kamala Harris and her candidates for running mate and then pivots to Trump, Trump 2.0 (JD Vance), the assassination attempt and the Florida judge's decision to throw out the document's case on a technicality.  We then switch gears to Canada where Frank offers his thoughts on the parallels between Biden's decision to not seek a second term and Prime Minister Trudeau's current dismal showing at the polls, suggesting that a decision on Trudeau's future will be made soon if he plans to end his run in 2025.  We ended with a question about the possibility the new UK government will revisit Brexit, a decision Frank suggests ranks in the top 3 worst political decisions of the last half century. On the topic of separation votes, Frank discusses how he mobilized citizens of New Brunswick to join a rally in Montreal ahead of the Quebec separation vote in 1995, one of his prouder, yet nerve-racking moments as Premier.  Chapter Headings: 00:30 - Frank's Storied Career05:33 - The End of President Biden17:44 - Trump's Eventful Two Weeks23:42 - The Biden-Trudeau Parallels31:28 - Will the New Starmer Government in the UK Revisit Brexit?36:24 - Mobilizing the Citizens of New Brunswick in 1995 to Save Canada For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

Episode 53 is all about elections.  Frank first covers the upcoming twin bill of elections on the other side of the Atlantic starring the French and English. The former coming as quite a surprise to the market, and the latter appearing to be a foregone conclusion, with the only item left to decide being the future of the UK Conservative Party which is expected to be obliterated at the polls on July 4.  In France, Frank questions President Macron's calculus for calling a surprise summer election.  Believing he could be holding together a centrist coalition while being threatened on both flanks, with the right-wing National Rally party occupying first place in polling, and a left-wing coalition also leading the incumbent government.  We then move on to discuss two recent important elections. First, Mexico and the success of out-going leader AMLO's hand-picked successor Claudia Sheinbaum, who bucked the global trend of incumbent government disruption in other elections.  Then we discuss President Modi's inability to garner a majority victory in India despite having tailwinds, including a powerful social media campaign.  Finally, Frank offers his opinion on the importance of the US Presidential debates, and Trump's never-ending Apprentice-like search for his November running mate. Chapter Headings: 03:08 - Bank of Canada Rate Decision06:18 - Frank's Hot Button Topics: Elections and Capital Gains09:21 - Macron's Gambit15:10 - Starmer's Steamroll in the UK18:02 - Future of the Conservative Party22:48 - AMLO's Protégé in Mexico28:16 - Reining in Modi in India33:13 - Importance of US Election Debates and Trump Running Mate This podcast was recorded on June 18, 2024. For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

Episode 52 takes us on a journey across several continents and covers a wide spectrum of topics. After remembering the legacy of his good friend and New Brunswick business icon Arthur Irving, who passed away recently, Frank covers the Sunak government's decision to call an early election in the U.K. and the trend toward authoritarian governments around the world, calling it a cyclical rather than secular trend. Frank checks in on new Argentine President Javier Milei's efforts to reduce the size of government and services in order to improve its financial position, a process that is complicated and requires compromise. He tells the U.S. Senators complaining to Trudeau about Canadian defense spending to stand down as the country's defense spending is moving in the right direction. Finally, he covers the U.S. election and suggests that despite his likely guilty verdict, Trump's opposition ought to change the narrative from "Trump is bad" to "Trump is going to get off". Chapters00:37 – Canada Loses Another Business Icon Arthur Irving05:36 – Sunak's Surprise UK Election Call12:03 – Is the Move to Authoritarian Leaders a Secular or Cyclical Change?15:04 – Checking in on Argentina's President Javier Milei20:34 – Bi-Partisan Letter From Senators to Trudeau on Defense Spending24:39 – Trump the Martyr This podcast was recorded on May 24, 2024. For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

n Episode 51, we circle back to Canada and focus on some of the key issues impacting our beautiful country.  After a quick discussion on the apparent de-escalation of hostilities between Iran and Israel, which Frank is hopeful is permanent, we spend most of the podcast on budget related matters.  Frank discusses the government's calculus in choosing to increase inclusion rates on capital gains over a windfall tax on food or energy companies, and then applauds the government's decision to appoint Stephen Poloz to work with Canadian pension funds on investment opportunities domestically.  He then breaks down the budget's $8.5 billion dollar commitment to housing and its increase in defense spending, a move that was greeted with applause by other NATO members, including the US.  He finishes the podcast lamenting the government's failed messaging on its carbon tax and rebate program.  On a positive note, Frank shows some in-season love to the Blue Jays for perhaps the first time in modern history. This podcast was recorded on April 22, 2024. Chapter Headings 0:52 - De-escalation in Middle East8:22 - Ottawa Chooses Capital Gains over a Windfall Tax on Food or Energy17:20 - Poloz on Pension Funds25:00 - Canada Moving Closer to its 2% of GDP Target for Defense Spending28:03 - Are We Spending Enough on Housing?32:13 - The Failed Messaging for Canada's Carbon Tax and Rebate System For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

In Episode 50, Frank invite's our colleague Chris Krueger to the podcast to help our listeners navigate the next 8 months until the November US Election.  We cover a lot of ground in 45 minutes, including the importance of foreign policy on the US Election, Democratic pressure on Israeli leader Netanyahu to mitigate civilian casualties, how Biden can change the narrative on the US Economy, the Octogenarian age issue of the candidates, Trump's legal woes, and the potential for third party candidates to impact the outcome of the election.  Finally, Frank takes a moment to remember the legacy of his good friend, former Prime Minister of Canada Brian Mulroney. Chapter Headings The Legacy of Canada's 18th Prime Minister Brian MulroneyImportance of Foreign Policy on US ElectionCan Biden's Position on Israel Flip Swing States?Budget Issues: The Southern Border and UkraineChanging the Narrative on the US EconomyWest, RFK Jr and Stein: The Impact of Third Party CandidatesBiden's Age and the SOTUThe Latest on Trump's Legal Woes This podcast was recorded on March 18, 2024 Disclaimer This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or in part. The information contained in this recording was obtained from publicly available sources, has not been independently verified by TD Securities, may not be current, and TD Securities has no obligation to provide any updates or changes. All price references and market forecasts are as of the date of recording. The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are not necessarily those of TD Securities and may differ from the views and opinions of other departments or divisions of TD Securities and its affiliates. TD Securities is not providing any financial, economic, legal, accounting, or tax advice or recommendations in this podcast. The information contained in this podcast does not constitute investment advice or an offer to buy or sell securities or any other product and should not be relied upon to evaluate any potential transaction. Neither TD Securities nor any of its affiliates makes any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or any information contained in this podcast and any liability therefore (including in respect of direct, indirect or consequential loss or damage) is expressly disclaimed. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

In this episode, Frank discusses the very active calendar of events in the War in Ukraine, Trump's wins and losses in the primaries and the courts respectively, along with recent developments in China as relations with the US continue to thaw.  Frank also provides a history lesson on how close Canada came to owning the Turks and Caicos Islands and covers off some of the good news stories in global geopolitics. Chapter Headings 5:26 - New Developments in the War in Ukraine14:18 - Trump's Eventful Month – Can he pay his chits?22:44 - Protests Erupt in Israel Calling for Netanyahu's Resignation28:08 - What is New in China?30:06 - Frank's back on the Jays Bandwagon – that didn't take long This podcast was recorded on February 26, 2024. Disclaimer This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or in part. The information contained in this recording was obtained from publicly available sources, has not been independently verified by TD Securities, may not be current, and TD Securities has no obligation to provide any updates or changes. All price references and market forecasts are as of the date of recording. The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are not necessarily those of TD Securities and may differ from the views and opinions of other departments or divisions of TD Securities and its affiliates. TD Securities is not providing any financial, economic, legal, accounting, or tax advice or recommendations in this podcast. The information contained in this podcast does not constitute investment advice or an offer to buy or sell securities or any other product and should not be relied upon to evaluate any potential transaction. Neither TD Securities nor any of its affiliates makes any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or any information contained in this podcast and any liability therefore (including in respect of direct, indirect or consequential loss or damage) is expressly disclaimed.

Back by popular demand, in Episode 48 Frank returns to the predictions game on 10 geopolitical topics important in Canada, the US and around the world in 2024.  Topics covered in this predictions episode cover a wide ranging set of issues including: the likelihood that Prime Minister Trudeau continues to lead the Liberal Party, immigration issues in Canada and at the southern border the United States, the next phase of the Canada-India diplomatic row, as well as a complete analysis of the US election and former President Donald Trump's legal woes that will likely play a part in the election result on November 5th.  We finish covering three global hot spots, the war in Ukraine, the Israel-Hamas dispute, and the likelihood North Korea moves from rhetoric to action in its tough talk with its neighbor in South Korea. Chapter Headings 1:02 – 1. Will Liberal Leaders Tell Prime Minister Trudeau it is time to retire?4:50 – 2. What happens to Canada-India Relations if and when Assassination Evidence is Made Public?8:16 – 3. Immigration Problems for Canada and at the Southern Border of the US19:16 - 4. Predicting the Outcome of Former President Trump's Legal Woes25:06 - 5.  Name the Democratic and Republican Leaders that Face off on September 16th at the First Presidential Debate?25:29 – 6. Who Wins the US Election?29:17 – 7. Who Controls the House and Senate after November 5th?30:54 - 8. Is there an Off Ramp in 2024 to end the Russia-Ukraine Conflict?33:32 - 9. Does the Israel-Hamas Conflict End this year and, if yes, then what is the catalyst?36:50 - 10. Will North Korea Flex its Muscles on South Korea?40:36 - Quick Hitters – Frank's Take on CPI, WTI, the S&P 500 and the Stanley Cup and World Series Champions41:47 - A Review of 2023 – Frank's Winners and Losers This podcast was recorded on January 29, 2024.Disclaimer  This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or in part. The information contained in this recording was obtained from publicly available sources, has not been independently verified by TD Securities, may not be current, and TD Securities has no obligation to provide any updates or changes. All price references and market forecasts are as of the date of recording. The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are not necessarily those of TD Securities and may differ from the views and opinions of other departments or divisions of TD Securities and its affiliates. TD Securities is not providing any financial, economic, legal, accounting, or tax advice or recommendations in this podcast. The information contained in this podcast does not constitute investment advice or an offer to buy or sell securities or any other product and should not be relied upon to evaluate any potential transaction. Neither TD Securities nor any of its affiliates makes any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or any information contained in this podcast and any liability therefore (including in respect of direct, indirect or consequential loss or damage) is expressly disclaimed.

In our last episode before the calendar turns to 2024, the conversation begins in Israel where Prime Minister Netanyahu struggles to maintain support for his war against Hamas. Next, we shift to Russia, where President Putin warned his neighbor Finland, a recently minted NATO member, that he will be assigning military to the Russia-Finland border area despite acknowledging he has no territorial rights over NATO nations. Back in Canada, Frank is critical of Quebec's decision to raise language standards and tuition costs for out of province students, a blow to McGill and Concordia along with the City of Montreal who will suffer due to a lack of enrollment and corresponding reductions in revenue. The conversation then moves on to David Dodge's recent paper on improving productivity for Canada, a problem that Frank thinks is worthy of a Royal Commission. We finish with a review of Canada's proposed Cap and Trade system to address oil and gas emissions and a postmortem of Argentina's new President Javier Mileil's first week on the job.Chapters1:26 – Netanyahu's Western Support Crumbling9:28 – Putin's Warning to Finland14:50 – A Blow to English Speaking Universities in Quebec18:28 – Solving Canada's Productivity Gap26:00 – Canada's Cap and Trade Solution31:30 – Mileil's First Week on the JobThis podcast was recorded on December 18, 2023. For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/tds-geopolitics-episode-47. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

Episode 46 covers a lot of geography. We start with a review of recent victories by right wing leaders in Argentina and Netherlands, which Frank believes is part of the natural pendulum swinging opposite incumbent center-left leadership amplified by Trump-related populist rhetoric. We spend a lot of time in Canada, first discussing Canada's position on the wrong side of NATO's defense spending targets and then with respect to the Liberal Party's recent Fall Economic Statement, in which the Government's target of "modest" deficits will be brought into question. We finish the Made in Canada discussion on more Alberta grievances, this time with respect to the legality of Federal net zero targets for Canada's electricity-grid.  After Canada, Frank updates us on the thawing India-Canada relations; whether the Israel-Hamas war is contained; then ending on a positive note with a discussion on improving US-China relations. Right Wing Victories in Netherlands, Argentina – 1:40Western World Atrophy Towards Ukraine – 8:00Canada's Defense Spending Problem- 14:00More than Modest Deficits in Canada – 17:30More Alberta Grievances – 27:50US Follows Canada - Alleges Indian Plot to Kill Sikh American – 33:50Is Israel-Hamas War Contained? – 37:20Lowering the Temperature between Super Powers – 41:20 This podcast was recorded on November 27, 2023. This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or in part. The information contained in this recording was obtained from publicly available sources, has not been independently verified by TD Securities, may not be current, and TD Securities has no obligation to provide any updates or changes. All price references and market forecasts are as of the date of recording. The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are not necessarily those of TD Securities and may differ from the views and opinions of other departments or divisions of TD Securities and its affiliates. TD Securities is not providing any financial, economic, legal, accounting, or tax advice or recommendations in this podcast. The information contained in this podcast does not constitute investment advice or an offer to buy or sell securities or any other product and should not be relied upon to evaluate any potential transaction. Neither TD Securities nor any of its affiliates makes any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or any information contained in this podcast and any liability therefore (including in respect of direct, indirect or consequential loss or damage) is expressly disclaimed. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

Episode 45 comes at you straight from TD's 24th Annual Portfolio Management and Market Structure Conference, held November 2nd.  Frank is joined on stage by Chris Krueger of TD Cowen's Washington Research Group for a panel discussion entitled The Washington Circus. Before Chris and Frank dig in on Washington, they first discuss the emerging threat of a broadening unrest in the Middle East, which Frank feels can and will be contained, but it is a dangerous situation. Chris plays the role of Washington Insider for an update on House negotiations for continued aid to Israel and Ukraine ahead of a potential Government shutdown on November 17th. Turning to the election cycle, Frank addresses the impact of third-party candidates such as RFK Jr., No Labels and Cornel West of the Green Party on both the Democrats and Republicans while Chris adds his thoughts on the likelihood of competition for Trump and/or Biden in the primaries. Frank finishes with an update on India-Canada relations and a passionate plea for Alberta to move on from the idea of separating from the CPP, earning him the first ever audience intra-session ovation in the 24-year history of our conference. Containing the Israel-Hamas War – 3:35The Future of Netanyahu – 16:50An Election Cycle Update – 20:08Gerrymandering 101 – 33:20Frank's Message to our Prime Minister about CPP – 52:10Canada-India – 55:30 This podcast was recorded on November 2, 2023. For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/tds-geopolitics-episode-44. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities. 

Frank McKenna, a proud Canadian, shows his true passion for Canada in Episode 44 first defending Canada in its diplomatic dispute with India over the killing of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a Canadian Member of the Sikh diaspora in Surrey, BC, then arguing against Alberta's potential separation from CPP and finally championing the partnership between The Federal Government and Indigenous communities for the soon to be finished Trans Mountain Pipeline.  Frank believes Canada's actions are enough following the unfortunate incident during Ukrainian President Zelensky's parliamentary visit in Ottawa that has now been politicized in both Canada and Russia and he touches on the impact of a US government shutdown.  The pod finishes up with Frank asking, perhaps rhetorically, for more cheerful topics next month – we make no promises. Unpacking Canada's Diplomatic Row with India – 4:15Canada's Embarrassment in Parliament – 20:25Alberta's Report on Separating from CPP - 23:51One Step Closer to Trans Mountain Pipeline Completion – 31:42The US Government Shutdown – 37:56 This podcast was recorded on September 27, 2023. For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/tds-geopolitics-episode-44. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

Episode 43 is entitled "More of the Same" because Frank returns to common threads from previous episodes namely Trudeau, climate, immigration, war, and Trump.  Frank discusses recent meetings with members of the Prime Minister's cabinet who stop by Frank's residence in New Brunswick en route to this week's retreat in PEI.  Top of mind items for Canada's government leaders include the public's growing belief that Ottawa is the primary cause of inflation, whether it is time to slow down on immigration in response to public pleas, and lack of affordable housing for 25-40 year old Canadians. Frank takes aim at last month's alarming Auditor General's report in Ontario on Greenbelt re-zoning, and the decision by the Ford government to press forward with re-zoning despite a growing outcry from opposition leaders.  He also weighs in on Trump, who is again, front and center with a fourth indictment in Georgia. Finally, Frank finishes up talking summits, both at Camp David, and in South Africa, where BRIC members discuss options for reducing dependence on the US dollar as the world's reserve currency. 1:12 - Social Media's Impact on Natural Disasters6:20 - Greenbelt Controversy in Ontario11:56 - Trump – Indictment #4 – Will Supreme Court Be Ultimate Arbiter?19:44 - RFK Jr – Legitimate Threat to Biden?23:44 - Trudeau's Cabinet Retreat – Changing the Narrative on Inflation28:29 - Southeast Asia Comes to Camp David – Poking China30:30 - BRICS Summit – Takeaways This podcast was recorded on August 22, 2023 This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or in part. The information contained in this recording was obtained from publicly available sources, has not been independently verified by TD Securities, may not be current, and TD Securities has no obligation to provide any updates or changes. All price references and market forecasts are as of the date of recording. The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are not necessarily those of TD Securities and may differ from the views and opinions of other departments or divisions of TD Securities and its affiliates. TD Securities is not providing any financial, economic, legal, accounting, or tax advice or recommendations in this podcast. The information contained in this podcast does not constitute investment advice or an offer to buy or sell securities or any other product and should not be relied upon to evaluate any potential transaction. Neither TD Securities nor any of its 

In Episode 42, Frank checks in from his summer location in New Brunswick for a wide ranging discussion on a busy geopolitical calendar.  We start close to home with a recap of Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's recent speech to Frank's charity summer golf event on the East Coast.  Not surprisingly, Clinton's remarks centered on US politics, including the prospect of a Donald Trump Republican Party nomination and the likelihood of a third party disruptor at the 2024 election.  Frank compares the situation in Netanyahu's Israel to a 2nd Trump term in the Oval Office and suggests that no one should take for granted democratic norms in the Western world.   After brief remarks on the NATO summit, we pivot to Canadian politics and discuss the Trudeau cabinet shuffle and its potential impact on the next party in power in Canada.   Before we finish on the Blue Jays, Frank gets out his crystal ball for a very interesting look at the world from his lens 10 years from now.1:32 - Secretary Clinton visits Frank's East Coast Charity Event7:30 - The Prospects of a Third Party Disruptor in 202413:38 - The World Reacts to Netanyahu's Move to Weaken the 19:21 - Supreme Court in Israel23:04 - Trudeau's Cabinet Shuffle28:28 - Governing Canada with Just One Premier Wearing Liberal Stripes31:55 - The Future of the World 10 Years from Now This podcast was recorded on July 27, 2023 This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or in part. The information contained in this recording was obtained from publicly available sources, has not been independently verified by TD Securities, may not be current, and TD Securities has no obligation to provide any updates or changes. All price references and market forecasts are as of the date of recording. The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are not necessarily those of TD Securities and may differ from the views and opinions of other departments or divisions of TD Securities and its affiliates. TD Securities is not providing any financial, economic, legal, accounting, or tax advice or recommendations in this podcast. The information contained in this podcast does not constitute investment advice or an offer to buy or sell securities or any other product and should not be relied upon to evaluate any potential transaction. Neither TD Securities nor any of its affiliates makes any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or any information contained in this podcast and any liability therefore (including in respect of direct, indirect or consequential loss or damage) is expressly disclaimed. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

In Episode 41, Frank breaks down the startling developments that unfolded in Russia over the weekend, with the mercenary Russian army known as the Wagner Group apparently turning on President Putin and leading to a near civil war.  We switch to US politics where Frank downplays the risk of an uprising should former President Trump be sent to jail for one of his many legal issues.  Other topics discussed include the recent trip to China by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Canadian wildfires, and David Dodge's criticism of Canada's immigration policies.. 1:47 - What is Going On in Russia?11:45 - The Risk of a Trump Uprising16:45 - Blinken's China Trip – A Good Result21:23 - Canadian Wildfires28:45 - David Dodge's Criticism of Canada's Immigration Policies  This podcast was recorded on June 26, 2023 This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or in part. The information contained in this recording was obtained from publicly available sources, has not been independently verified by TD Securities, may not be current, and TD Securities has no obligation to provide any updates or changes. All price references and market forecasts are as of the date of recording. The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are not necessarily those of TD Securities and may differ from the views and opinions of other departments or divisions of TD Securities and its affiliates. TD Securities is not providing any financial, economic, legal, accounting, or tax advice or recommendations in this podcast. The information contained in this podcast does not constitute investment advice or an offer to buy or sell securities or any other product and should not be relied upon to evaluate any potential transaction. Neither TD Securities nor any of its affiliates makes any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or any information contained in this podcast and any liability therefore (including in respect of direct, indirect or consequential loss or damage) is expressly disclaimed. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

Frank is joined by his colleague at TD Securities, The Honorable Rona Ambrose, for a wide-ranging discussion on Canadian politics including the upcoming Alberta Election, where a recent own goal by Rachel Notley on corporate taxes might be the catalyst for a UCP victory next week.Rona and Frank also discuss politics in Ottawa, including the assertion by former Prime Minister Jean Chretien that Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre's policies are even right of Stephen Harper.  Rona finishes up with some advice on social media for aspiring politicians, especially females.2:00 - Handicapping the Alberta Election 8:56 - Smith's Pivot, Notley's Own Goal on Taxes 13:38 - What Ottawa is Watching in Alberta? 20:37 - Is Poilievre Right of Harper? 29:30 - Will Trudeau Run in 2025?37:42 - Canada - China Diplomatic Tit for Tat - is it Over? 43:02 - Politics and Social Media This podcast was recorded on May 23, 2023.This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or in part. The information contained in this recording was obtained from publicly available sources, has not been independently verified by TD Securities, may not be current, and TD Securities has no obligation to provide any updates or changes. All price references and market forecasts are as of the date of recording. The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are not necessarily those of TD Securities and may differ from the views and opinions of other departments or divisions of TD Securities and its affiliates. TD Securities is not providing any financial, economic, legal, accounting, or tax advice or recommendations in this podcast. The information contained in this podcast does not constitute investment advice or an offer to buy or sell securities or any other product and should not be relied upon to evaluate any potential transaction. Neither TD Securities nor any of its affiliates makes any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or any information contained in this podcast and any liability therefore (including in respect of direct, indirect or consequential loss or damage) is expressly disclaimed. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

In Episode 39, Frank invites his new colleague from TD Cowen's Washington Research Group, Chris Krueger, to the monthly podcast for a discussion on US politics.  The two geopolitical experts discuss potential solutions to the pending debt ceiling, how Trump's legal woes work to his advantage and who might be his credible competitors in the Republican Primary.  Frank covers some high level conversation topics with business leaders, and both Chris and Frank provide names of their ideal Presidential candidates. 2:00 – What Frank is Hearing from Business Leaders?5:10 – Solving the Debt Ceiling Before Doom16:40 – Trump's Competition in the Republican Primary24:35 – Trump's Legal Woes Become His Running Mate28:20 - Will Biden Face Competition in the Democratic Primary?38:10 – The Ideal Presidential Candidate This podcast was recorded on April 24, 2023 This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or in part. The information contained in this recording was obtained from publicly available sources, has not been independently verified by TD Securities, may not be current, and TD Securities has no obligation to provide any updates or changes. All price references and market forecasts are as of the date of recording. The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are not necessarily those of TD Securities and may differ from the views and opinions of other departments or divisions of TD Securities and its affiliates. TD Securities is not providing any financial, economic, legal, accounting, or tax advice or recommendations in this podcast. The information contained in this podcast does not constitute investment advice or an offer to buy or sell securities or any other product and should not be relied upon to evaluate any potential transaction. Neither TD Securities nor any of its affiliates makes any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or any information contained in this podcast and any liability therefore (including in respect of direct, indirect or consequential loss or damage) is expressly disclaimed. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

In Episode 38, Frank returns from a busy schedule of travelling the world this past month and provides a live eye view on several important hot button geopolitical topics.  He has just returned from a visit to the Middle East, where he met with senior political figures in Israel and Jordan, all of whom condemned the move by Israeli leader Netanyahu to condense power inside his government.  Frank also shares his views on French President Macron's decision to take on the controversial topic of pension reform which resulted in countrywide protests against a plan that means public sector employees will need to work two more years before qualifying for a full pension.  Additionally, he weighs in on government actions to support banks, and also the recent State Visit to Ottawa by President Biden, which Frank argues was a unequivocal success with great tone from the top. Chapter Headings 1:00 - Biden State Visit to Canada8:00 - Canada's Federal Budget Takeaways11:00 - Poilievre's Platform Plans15:50 - Israel – Frank's on the Ground Perspective22:30 - Macron Pulls the Pin on Pension Reform32:10 - Government Reaction to a New Bank Crisis This podcast was recorded on March 28, 2023. This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or in part. The information contained in this recording was obtained from publicly available sources, has not been independently verified by TD Securities, may not be current, and TD Securities has no obligation to provide any updates or changes. All price references and market forecasts are as of the date of recording. The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are not necessarily those of TD Securities and may differ from the views and opinions of other departments or divisions of TD Securities and its affiliates. TD Securities is not providing any financial, economic, legal, accounting, or tax advice or recommendations in this podcast. The information contained in this podcast does not constitute investment advice or an offer to buy or sell securities or any other product and should not be relied upon to evaluate any potential transaction. Neither TD Securities nor any of its affiliates makes any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or any information contained in this podcast and any liability therefore (including in respect of direct, indirect or consequential loss or damage) is expressly disclaimed. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

In Episode 37, Frank deep dives the immigration complexities of North America, in particular the issue of refugees seeking asylum from the USA into Canada via irregular ports of entry not covered under existing immigration agreements between the two countries. He admits there is no easy solution to the US's Southern border refugee problem which is complicated by the fact it is not just Mexicans using its border to enter the US illegally.  Frank discusses the rhetoric between Russia and Ukraine at the one year anniversary of the War and explains why an audit of Western Aid during a war is all but impossible.He finishes with a look at the Dominion Voting Machines lawsuit of FOX News, which judged in the court of public opinion is a slam dunk victory for the plaintiff. Chapter Headings 1:55 - Roxham Road Immigration Leakage8:50 – The US's Immigration Issues its Southern Border15:10 - Intervention in Haiti22:05 - Russia-Ukraine War – the One Year Anniversary25:50 - The Audit Process for Ukrainian Aid30:31 - FOX and the Dominion Lawsuit Texts35:00 - The Poorly Named Inflation Reduction ActThis podcast was recorded on March 2, 2023. This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or in part. The information contained in this recording was obtained from publicly available sources, has not been independently verified by TD Securities, may not be current, and TD Securities has no obligation to provide any updates or changes. All price references and market forecasts are as of the date of recording. The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are not necessarily those of TD Securities and may differ from the views and opinions of other departments or divisions of TD Securities and its affiliates. TD Securities is not providing any financial, economic, legal, accounting, or tax advice or recommendations in this podcast. The information contained in this podcast does not constitute investment advice or an offer to buy or sell securities or any other product and should not be relied upon to evaluate any potential transaction. Neither TD Securities nor any of its affiliates makes any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or any information contained in this podcast and any liability therefore (including in respect of direct, indirect or consequential loss or damage) is expressly disclaimed. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

Episode 36 returns to addressing the geopolitical topics of the day. The episode begins with a discussion of the document storage security breaches by various important US politicians, a story that is keeping cable television political commentators busy.  Frank also addresses the topic du jour at this year's World Economic Forum, geo-economic fragmentation on the back of the energy crisis caused by the war in Ukraine, the declining relations between China, and tensions between the US and Europe over the US's generous subsidies for electric vehicles.We finish up in North America discussing infrastructure investing in Canada, and the US debt ceiling, including talk on Wall Street of a solution that allows debts to be paid to bondholders exclusively while the government works to solve the debate. Chapters0:48 - Are All Document Breaches Created Equal?11:15 - Geo-Economic Fragmentation17:09 - Is Sending Tanks to Ukraine Crossing a Red Line?21:31 - The Debt Ceiling and "Payment Prioritization"25:40 - Will Canada Search for Partners for Infrastructure?This podcast was recorded on January 30, 2023. This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or in part. The information contained in this recording was obtained from publicly available sources, has not been independently verified by TD Securities, may not be current, and TD Securities has no obligation to provide any updates or changes. All price references and market forecasts are as of the date of recording. The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are not necessarily those of TD Securities and may differ from the views and opinions of other departments or divisions of TD Securities and its affiliates. TD Securities is not providing any financial, economic, legal, accounting, or tax advice or recommendations in this podcast. The information contained in this podcast does not constitute investment advice or an offer to buy or sell securities or any other product and should not be relied upon to evaluate any potential transaction. Neither TD Securities nor any of its affiliates makes any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or any information contained in this podcast and any liability therefore (including in respect of direct, indirect or consequential loss or damage) is expressly disclaimed.To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

The start of a new year is always a great time for predictions, so we decided to challenge Frank to provide his thoughts on ten of the most important geopolitical matters impacting Canada and the rest of the world order.  Frank does not disappoint and while not everything you will hear in the next 45 minutes will make you smile, there is some glimmer of hope on the horizon for both politics and the economy. 1:33 - The War in Ukraine7:53 -China and its Relations with the West10:06 - The Next Country Threatening Global Unrest12:10 - Can the Freedom Caucus be Tamed?16:10 - Will Donald Trump be Indicted?18:30 - Will Joe Biden Run Again in 2024?23:52 - Trump's Competitors for Republican Leadership26:05 - Will Poilievre Lead the Polls at the End of 2023?32:17 - Is Elon Musk Lord Vader?35:22 - The Alberta Election – Smith or Notley? This podcast was recorded on January 5, 2023. This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or in part. The information contained in this recording was obtained from publicly available sources, has not been independently verified by TD Securities, may not be current, and TD Securities has no obligation to provide any updates or changes. All price references and market forecasts are as of the date of recording. The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are not necessarily those of TD Securities and may differ from the views and opinions of other departments or divisions of TD Securities and its affiliates. TD Securities is not providing any financial, economic, legal, accounting, or tax advice or recommendations in this podcast. The information contained in this podcast does not constitute investment advice or an offer to buy or sell securities or any other product and should not be relied upon to evaluate any potential transaction. Neither TD Securities nor any of its affiliates makes any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or any information contained in this podcast and any liability therefore (including in respect of direct, indirect or consequential loss or damage) is expressly disclaimed.To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

In Episode 34, Frank breaks down the legal woes of Donald Trump and is left to wonder "is it possible to be President of the United States while in jail?"  Of all the cases in front of the former President, Frank thinks it might be the otherwise innocuous and strange situation of the Mar-a-logo documents that is Trump's biggest legal risk.   Frank discusses the implications of a split Congress, indicating that this topic is top of mind with investors and corporate clients post the mid-term elections.  He is watching the Georgia run-off for the 100th Senate seat very closely as a Democratic victory would reduce the influence of Joe Manchin and other senators at the end of the spectrum and would allow the Democrats greater control of Senate Committees.  Turning to Canadian politics, Frank is not as sure as his colleague, The Honorable Rona Ambrose, that the new Premier of Alberta, Danielle Smith, will win when the province goes to the polls next May.Chapter Headings1:20 – The Number 1 Topic Dominating Frank's Investor and Corporate Conversations4:30 – Donald Trump's Bad Month – What Legal Issue is Trump's Biggest Worry?17:00 – Mid-Terms – Practical Implications of a Split Congress24:55 – Frank vs Rona – Who Wins Alberta?29:35 – Frank Remains Steadfast "There will NOT be a Windfall Tax on Oil and Gas"33:50 – The New UK Government – Adults are Now in the RoomThis podcast was recorded on November 25, 2022.For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/tds-geopolitics-episode-34. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

Episode 33 of our monthly podcast series on Geopolitics is a special bonus for our listeners.  In this episode, we listen in on a recent interview with The Honorable Rona Ambrose conducted at our 23rd Annual TD Securities Portfolio Management and Market Structure Conference held earlier this month.  In this episode, Rona tackles several important topics on the minds of Canadians including the leadership race in her home province of Alberta and the 411 on the Federal Conservative Party's new leader Pierre Poilievre.   While Rona's Conservative Party background differs from Frank McKenna's Liberal upbringing, the two former leaders and current TD Securities leaders have tremendous mutual respect.  That said, we look forward getting Frank's take on Rona's view that both Danielle Smith and Pierre Poilievre are electable. This podcast was recorded on November 3, 2022. For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/tds-geopolitics-episode-33. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

In Episode 32, Frank addresses the rhetoric from Alberta's new Premier Danielle Smith who he believes will need to tone down the message in order to be electable next May. The theme of inflation is prevalent, with Frank touching on rising mortgage rates, OPEC's politically motivated decision to cut production and its impact on U.S. mid-terms and the mess caused by U.K. Prime Minister Truss' hugely inflationary and now unwound mini-budget. Frank admits that Russia-Ukraine is at a stalemate with no runway for an off ramp, as they head into winter. Despite all the negative press, Frank talks about his positive outlook on the world as whole, acting as a reminder to take a step back when we are overwhelmed by an endless stream of negative news headlines.Chapter Headings:The 411 on Danielle Smith (1:18)Will Rising Mortgage Rates Lead to a Housing Crisis? (9:40)OPEC's Politically Motivated Production Cut (13:34)US Mid-Terms (15:58)Liz Truss's Mess (21:10)Something Positive (31:20 This podcast was recorded on October 18, 2022. For relevant disclosures, visit: https://www.tdsecurities.com/ca/en/tds-geopolitics-episode-32. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

In Episode 31, Frank and Peter catch up on world events, including the war in Ukraine and Putin's saber rattling over nuclear weapons, the changing political landscape in Europe and the U.K., the U.S. mid-terms and the Conservative Party's new leader in Canada. Frank provides a view from Cap Pele of the damage from Hurricane Fiona, which he considers to be the strongest storm to hit landfall in Canada in recorded history. He also shares his perspective on why U.S. leaders are unable to change the narrative on immigration -- from one of vitriol to one of need given changing demographics .  Peter asks Frank his favourite fishing story from New Brunswick's famous Miramichi River and the two of them finish up with the Blue Jays as we head into the play-off run. Hurricane Fiona – The Strongest Storm in Canadian History (0:43)The War in Ukraine – Putin's Nuclear Threat (5:50)The Mess that Awaits Liz Truss (17:35)November Mid-Terms (21:55)Republican Political Stunt over Immigration (25:30)Mulroney's Advice to Poilievre (33:42)

In Episode 30, Frank McKenna, Deputy Chair, TD Securities, examines geopolitical issues south of the 49th parallel, starting with Nancy Pelosi's controversial trip to Taiwan and the Chinese Government's reaction. Frank also touches on Merrick Garland's decision to search Former President Trump's Mar-a-Lago residence, and how it impacts Republican perception of the Department of Justice. In another take, while it was a good month for President Biden, Frank comments on whether those positive developments will move the needle on Biden's approval rating. Frank concludes the episode with an update on the abortion vote in Kansas, including a surprising stance in a traditionally red state.

On Episode 29, we cover a wide range of topics, including the difficulties of air travel, and Canada's reputation for being one of the worst countries for delayed flights. Frank McKenna, Deputy Chair, TD Securities, discusses the peaceful overthrow of the Government of Sri Lanka, and he reveals which emerging countries are on his watchlist for similar uprisings. Frank also discusses Boris Johnson's exit from UK politics, and his reaction to the Bank of Canada's move to increase interest rates by 100 basis points. Frank concludes the episode with an analysis of the January 6 hearings, including his thoughts on whether the Department of Justice will formally charge President Trump. Chapter Headings 1:55 – Summer & Air Travel Challenges6:22 – Explaining A Three-Foot Putt9:45 – The Implications of The Uprising in Sri Lanka15:25 – Boris Johnson's Exit from UK Politics19:20 – Will Trump be Charged?21:20 – The Bank of Canada's Surprise Interest Rate HikeDisclaimer For relevant disclosures, visit https://www.tdsecurities.com/ca/en/tds-geopolitics-episode-29

In this episode, Frank McKenna, Deputy Chair, TD Securities, takes aim at the highly politicized Supreme Court now that the Republicans are holding a supermajority. How will a very right-wing agenda of reforms to climate change, abortion, and gun laws sit with the majority of Americans, and what does it signal about the Supreme Court? In terms of recent updates on abortion laws, Frank does not believe President Biden's sliding ratings will change ahead of the U.S. midterm elections in November.  Frank also addresses potential land mines that could be triggered in the Ukraine-Russia war, and he hints that Putin may end up backed into a corner, further complicating the situation. Frank concludes the episode by citing feedback from business leaders and politicians on the hot topic of inflation and the looming threat of a recession. Chapter Headings 2:21 – The Supreme Court and Roe v. Wade15:50 – The Supreme Court and West Virginia v. Environmental Protection Agency19:54 – Will the Supreme Court Help Biden's Popularity?24:03 – Potential Land Mines in the Russia-Ukraine Conflict29:10 – Will the Canadian Government Tax Excessive Profits in the Energy Sector?35:52 – What are Business Leaders and Politicians Saying About Inflation? Disclaimer For relevant disclosures, visit https://www.tdsecurities.com/ca/en/tds-geopolitics-episode-28

In Episode 27, Frank McKenna, Deputy Chair, TD Securities, is joined by the Honourable Rona Ambrose. Together, they cover a host of election issues across North America, including the Conservative Party Leadership Race, the Ontario Provincial Election, and the bombshell announcement of Jason Kenney's resignation as Alberta Premier. Frank also touches on the recent tragic events in Uvalde, Texas. He expresses his views on gun reform in the U.S., and he outlines whether this event will be a ballot issue in the upcoming U.S. midterm elections. In another discussion, Rona does not believe the leaked Roe v. Wade decision, or recent gun violence, will impact Canadian elections in the coming months. On the global front, Frank offers his perspective on the war in Ukraine, and megatrends that are on the horizon, including energy, agriculture, and pharmaceutical independence, as well as deglobalization. Inflation is also a main talking point, as politicians everywhere confront this topic for the first time in 30 years. This long-form podcast contains incredible insights from former political leaders that remain connected to the current geopolitical landscape. It is a must-listen for investors who are trying to navigate critical events in the day-to-day markets. Chapter Headings 1:15 - An Update on War in Ukraine8:35 - The Rise of Putin Imitators17:15 - Energy Independence and Other Megatrends24:30 - Inflation: Is it Time to Fire Central Bankers En Masse?35:55 - The Conservative Leadership Race43:18 - Gun Violence and the U.S. Midterm Elections51:30 - The Surprise Resignation of Jason Kenney56:26 - The Ontario ElectionDisclaimerFor relevant disclosures, visit https://www.tdsecurities.com/ca/en/tds-geopolitics-episode-27

In Episode 26, Frank McKenna, Deputy Chair, TD Securities, tackles the political implications of long-term inflation. He reminds listeners of the 1970s and 1980s when inflation was the number one ballot issue in Canada. Frank also provides a high-level perspective on the war in Ukraine, indicating that the West is "draining the swamp" by isolating Russia and cutting off its lucrative supply of energy to Europe. Frank goes on to highlight how Emmanuel Macron's victory over Marine Le Pen, the far-right presidential candidate in France, reduces the risk of a split with the West. Frank details how this could also impact the search for alternative energy solutions, including nuclear energy. Frank concludes the episode by offering sound advice to corporate executives regarding the ESG debate, making an important connection to Ukraine's sovereignty.Chapter Heading Times0:43 - The Political Implications of Long-Term Inflation10:37 - Canada's Time to Shine16:45 - The War Update22:40 - Advice on Managing the Ever-Evolving ESG Debate28:10 - What Macron's Win Means for Europe31:10 - The Ontario Election: Will Doug Ford Secure Another Majority Government? DisclaimerFor relevant disclosures, visit https://www.tdsecurities.com/ca/en/tds-geopolitics-episode-26

In this Episode, Frank McKenna, Deputy Chair, TD Securities, takes a post-mortem look at the G7 Leaders' Summit held in Brussels over the weekend. Frank suggests that Biden's comments on the regime change in Russia were unhelpful, and may be forgotten. He also analyzes Russia's retreat from Kyiv, hinting that if Russia is acting rationally, this may signal a potential end to the conflict. With Russia facing ongoing ostracization from the Western World, Frank believes Canada should take a leading role in reshaping the global economy, with an important nod to C.D. Howe. Frank concludes the episode by examining the recent Liberal-NDP deal, and what it means for Prime Minister Trudeau's next move. Chapter Headings 0:50 – Biden Goes Off Script in Poland 8:55 – When is Economic War an Act of War? 11:44 – Explaining Russia's Retreat from Kyiv 18: 30 – Has Chancellor Merkel's Legacy Been Tarnished by Putin? 23:22 – Canada's C. D. Howe Moment 33:20 – The Liberal-NDP Deal Disclaimer For relevant disclosures, visit https://www.tdsecurities.com/ca/en/tds-geopolitics-episode-25

Frank McKenna, Deputy Chair at TD Securities and former Premier of New Brunswick and Canadian Ambassador to the United States, discusses geopolitical issues of the day in this monthly series hosted by Peter Haynes, Managing Director at TD Securities.This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or in part. The information contained in this recording was obtained from publicly available sources, has not been independently verified by TD Securities, may not be current, and TD Securities has no obligation to provide any updates or changes. All price references and market forecasts are as of the date of recording. The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are not necessarily those of TD Securities and may differ from the views and opinions of other departments or divisions of TD Securities and its affiliates. TD Securities is not providing any financial, economic, legal, accounting, or tax advice or recommendations in this podcast. The information contained in this podcast does not constitute investment advice or an offer to buy or sell securities or any other product and should not be relied upon to evaluate any potential transaction. Neither TD Securities nor any of its affiliates makes any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or any information contained in this podcast and any liability therefore (including in respect of direct, indirect or consequential loss or damage) is expressly disclaimed.