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Ready to save $10k-$50k in taxes this year? Book a call here:► https://taxstrategy365.com/pod-appIn this episode, I walk you through the exact steps to correctly set up an LLC in any state—and avoid the critical mistakes that make over half of DIY LLCs essentially worthless. I cover the full 7-step process, the difference between proper and flimsy asset protection, and the most common compliance missteps investors make. Whether you're a new real estate investor or an experienced business owner looking to tighten up your asset protection strategy, this episode gives you everything you need to know to get your LLC done right the first time.Timestamps:00:00:00 – Intro: The difference between real asset protection and useless paperwork00:01:22 – Why LLCs offer protection, tax flexibility, and professionalism00:02:17 – Step 1: Name availability and selecting a registered agent00:02:57 – Step 2: Filing articles of organization and creating an operating agreement00:04:39 – Why poorly written operating agreements can cause major legal issues00:05:10 – Step 3: Getting an EIN and common filing mistakes to avoid00:05:47 – Step 4: Opening a business bank account00:06:41 – Step 5: State-specific requirements, annual filings, and fees00:07:39 – High-cost vs. low-cost LLC states: what to expect00:08:08 – Step 6: Common maintenance mistakes that lead to LLC “piercing”00:08:39 – The importance of proper documentation across multiple LLCs00:09:33 – Step 7: Updating records after life or business changes00:10:32 – When to hire a professional vs. DIY00:11:18 – Why professionals like doctors and CPAs often need PLLCs instead00:12:30 – Final thoughts: When to DIY and when to seek expert guidanceWant me to answer your real estate questions? Come to my next Ask Me Anything Q&A:► https://taxstrategy365.com/pod-amaLet's connect!► Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/ryanbakkecpa/► LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryanbakkecpa/► Twitter: https://twitter.com/RyanBakkeCPA► Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/ryanbakkecpa► TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@ryanbakkecpa*None of this is meant to be specific investment advice, it's for entertainment purposes only.
Ready to save $10k-$50k in taxes this year? Book a call here:► https://taxstrategy365.com/pod-appIn this episode, Ryan Bakke breaks down the key differences between LLCs and S Corporations—and why putting your rental real estate in an S Corp could cost you thousands in taxes. While S Corps are great for service-based businesses, Ryan walks through three major tax traps for real estate investors who use them. He also shares his recommended entity structure for those running both passive rental portfolios and active real estate businesses. If you're a real estate investor or advisor trying to optimize your tax strategy, this episode is essential listening.Timestamps:00:00:00 – Intro: When an LLC beats an S Corp for real estate00:00:37 – Key differences: Tax treatment, liability, and ownership flexibility00:01:44 – Why S Corps are popular for service businesses (and when they work)00:02:29 – How an S Corp can save $9,000/year in self-employment tax00:03:43 – Why those savings don't translate to real estate investing00:04:12 – S Corp disaster #1: Losing depreciation deductions00:05:40 – S Corp disaster #2: Refinance triggers a taxable event00:07:28 – What happens when you move property from an S Corp to personal name00:08:25 – S Corp disaster #3: Paying self-employment tax on passive income00:09:26 – When S Corps do make sense (flipping, development, active real estate)00:10:08 – Ryan's recommended entity structure: Active vs. Passive buckets00:10:29 – Benefits of using LLCs for rentals: Depreciation, 1031s, flexibility00:11:11 – Recap: Avoiding tax nightmares with the right structureWant me to answer your real estate questions? Come to my next Ask Me Anything Q&A:► https://taxstrategy365.com/pod-amaLet's connect!► Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/ryanbakkecpa/► LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryanbakkecpa/► Twitter: https://twitter.com/RyanBakkeCPA► Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/ryanbakkecpa► TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@ryanbakkecpa*None of this is meant to be specific investment advice, it's for entertainment purposes only.
Ready to save $10k-$50k in taxes this year? Book a call here:► https://taxstrategy365.com/pod-appIn this episode, I break down one of the most powerful tax strategies available to real estate investors: the short-term rental (STR) tax loophole. I explain how investors who don't qualify as real estate professionals can still use rental losses to offset W-2 and active business income—if they meet specific IRS requirements. I outline the two major tests you must pass (average stay and material participation), how to document them properly, and the massive tax savings this can unlock. If you want to pay less tax, accelerate your real estate goals, and avoid costly mistakes, this episode is your blueprint.Want me to answer your real estate questions? Come to my next Ask Me Anything Q&A:► https://taxstrategy365.com/pod-amaLet's connect!► Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/ryanbakkecpa/► LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryanbakkecpa/► Twitter: https://twitter.com/RyanBakkeCPA► Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/ryanbakkecpa► TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@ryanbakkecpa*None of this is meant to be specific investment advice, it's for entertainment purposes only.
Ready to save $10k-$50k in taxes this year? Book a call here:► https://taxstrategy365.com/pod-appIn this episode, I talk with Chelsea Cutrer—former tech executive turned short-term rental queen—about her incredible journey from W2 to full-time real estate entrepreneur. Chelsea shares how she leveraged her design eye, sales background, and business instincts to build a growing STR portfolio in the competitive 30A market. We dive into the systems she uses to manage her own properties and her 20+ management clients, her take on revenue strategy, and how she's already changing her family tree.Timestamps:00:00:00 – Intro and Transitioning from W2 tech job to full-time STR investor00:01:08 – Education, career at Dell, and early interest in real estate00:04:14 – How Chelsea's mom inspired her real estate journey00:05:38 – Buying the first STR during COVID and the tax motivation behind it00:08:40 – What makes her listings outperform in 30A00:10:10 – The power of private beach access and listing clarity00:14:45 – What her current STR portfolio looks like00:16:26 – Markets she's exploring next (like Cape San Blas)00:19:04 – From co-hosting to full management and revenue strategy00:20:21 – The biggest mistakes property managers make00:22:36 – How she prices for the off-season and fills gaps00:24:40 – Teaching her kids real estate and building generational wealth00:26:40 – Growth plans, S Corp planning, and how she found Ryan00:28:54 – Her top advice for anyone thinking about leaving their W2Want me to answer your questions live? Come to my next Ask Me Anything Q&A:► https://taxstrategy365.com/pod-amaLet's connect!► Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/ryanbakkecpa/► LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryanbakkecpa/► Twitter: https://twitter.com/RyanBakkeCPA► Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/ryanbakkecpa► TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@ryanbakkecpa*None of this is meant to be specific investment advice, it's for entertainment purposes only.
Ready to save $10k-$50k in taxes this year? Book a call here:► https://taxstrategy365.com/pod-appIn this Client Success Spotlight episode, I sit down with Tanya and Arjun Bhasin to talk about how they built a top-performing short-term rental business while still working demanding tech jobs. From closing over $100k in bookings in their first month to building standout properties in competitive markets like Hot Springs, Arkansas and Newry, Maine — they share the systems, hospitality strategies, and risk-taking mindset that helped them scale fast. You'll hear how they split responsibilities, fund their deals, and plan to keep building unique stays that land in the top 1%.Timestamps:00:00:00 – Intro + early investing background00:01:54 – Why they shifted from stocks to real estate00:04:09 – Tanya and Arjun's complementary roles in their STR business00:05:38 – How they built a standout property in Hot Springs, AR00:07:27 – $100k in bookings in their first month live00:08:03 – Why hospitality and thoughtful touches drive repeat business00:09:28 – The mindset shift from tech careers to real estate freedom00:11:06 – Buying their first condo and discovering long-term wealth00:13:25 – Comparing Hot Springs and Newry, Maine markets00:14:33 – How they plan and build for top 1% performance00:15:46 – Markets they're watching and planning to invest in next00:17:43 – How they financed their deals using second home loans00:20:45 – Why real estate gives you more control than stocks00:21:01 – Do they believe they're changing their family tree?00:23:37 – Future plansWant me to answer your questions live? Come to my next Ask Me Anything Q&A:► https://taxstrategy365.com/pod-amaLet's connect!► Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/ryanbakkecpa/► LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryanbakkecpa/► Twitter: https://twitter.com/RyanBakkeCPA► Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/ryanbakkecpa► TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@ryanbakkecpa*None of this is meant to be specific investment advice, it's for entertainment purposes only.
Following a topical second round of ProMX 2025 at Appin, MotoOnline's Nic Still tracked down Kyle Webster, Noah Ferguson, Regan Duffy, Brodie Connolly, Ryder Kingsford, Jed Beaton and Wilson Todd to recount their Weekend in this interview podcast.
On-track competition at its finest, a mix of off-track antics, and much more underscored round two of ProMX 2025 at Appin. Recap all of the action with Nic Still and Trent Maher in MotoOnline's Express Podcast presented by FLY Racing, available now across the leading platforms. For complete information on FLY Racing, visit the brand online or stop in at your local retailer.
Appin returns to the ProMX schedule this weekend, while off-track there are an assortment of topics that we dive into as well. Nic Still and Alex Gobert open the conversations that matter in our MXtoday Podcast, just released across the leading platforms.
Hector and Alicia explore Intuit's strategic positioning of Enterprise Suite as a mid-market solution distinct from QuickBooks Online Advanced. They break down the key features released in December 2024, including enhanced multi-entity reporting, construction-focused tools, and dimensional reporting capabilities. They discuss pricing considerations, feature limitations, and share their insights on Intuit's development roadmap for this new platform aimed at bridging the gap between small business accounting and full ERP systems.(00:00) - Welcome to the Unofficial QuickBooks Accountants Podcast (00:26) - Introduction and New Developments in Intuit Enterprise Suite (03:58) - Positioning and Market Strategy (10:16) - Pricing and Multi-Entity Features (14:33) - New Features and Updates (20:23) - Construction-Focused Enhancements (23:49) - AI and Workflow Innovations (26:38) - User Permissions and Granular Controls (30:00) - Future Predictions and Final Thoughts (31:46) - Introduction to Multi-Entity Reporting (33:14) - Manual Eliminations Explained (37:07) - Challenges with Multi-Entity Management (40:36) - API and Integration Concerns (45:31) - Future Developments and Focus Areas (48:30) - Challenges and Recommendations for IES (56:18) - Conclusion and Upcoming Updates Send your Questions/Comments (we could read/answer them on air) ask@uqapodcast.comLinks/Apps Mentioned in this episode:Alicia's 1099s in QBO Class, Jan 7 webinar + recording: http://royl.ws/QBO1099Alicia's QBO Cleanup for Taxes Class, Jan 22 webinar + recording: http://royl.ws/yearendReframe 2025 Conference https://reframe2025.com/Hector's RightTool: http://righttool.appIn the Know replay: https://intuit.ondemand.goldcast.io/on-demand/d43891cb-8c38-495f-b8f1-ab1c78de7ac6 Sign up to Earmark to earn free CPE for listening to this podcasthttps://www.earmark.app/onboarding
Hector and Alicia dive into the latest QuickBooks updates from December 2024, including new ProAdvisor discounts for Bill Pay Manager and the rollout of Intuit Assist's AI-powered billing features. They explore the practical implications of these changes, with Hector raising important security considerations about the new email-to-bill functionality.Send your Questions/Comments (we could read/answer them on air) ask@uqapodcast.comLinks/Apps Mentioned in this episode:Alicia's 1099s in QBO Class, Jan 7 webinar + recording: http://royl.ws/QBO1099Alicia's QBO Cleanup for Taxes Class, Jan 22 webinar + recording: http://royl.ws/yearendReframe 2025 Conference https://reframe2025.com/Hector's RightTool: http://righttool.appIn the Know replay: https://intuit.ondemand.goldcast.io/on-demand/d43891cb-8c38-495f-b8f1-ab1c78de7ac6 Sign up to Earmark to earn free CPE for listening to this podcasthttps://www.earmark.app/onboarding (00:00) - Welcome to The Unofficial QuickBooks Accountants Podcast (01:33) - QuickBooks Online Bill Pay Manager Updates (05:29) - ProConnect Tax Enhancements (07:27) - Intuit Assist and AI Features (20:14) - Future Developments and Features (21:13) - Firm of the Future Highlights (24:05) - Upcoming Events and Announcements (31:50) - Hector's Farewell and Podcast Transition
In this episode of Crime Time Inc, hosts Tom and Simon discuss an intriguing week of crime cases covered by their daily podcasts. They delve into the details of several notorious figures, starting with Archibald Hall, also known as Roy Fontaine, a charismatic but ruthless fraudster and serial killer. They recount the fascinating story of his capture, his lack of empathy, and his chillingly accurate recollection of where he buried his victims. The duo also explores the case of Bonnie and Clyde, demystifying the Hollywood glamour surrounding the infamous duo and highlighting the reality of their brutal crimes. They touch on the contentious case of Lucy Letby, the nurse convicted of murdering six babies, noting the circumstantial nature of the evidence and the controversial aspects still under debate. The Appin murders, a historical gangland hit cloaked in romanticism, are analyzed for their straightforward vendetta-driven motives. Donald Nielsen, the Black Panther, and his horrifying kidnapping and murder of a young girl are recounted, emphasising the horrific details of the crime. Finally, they discuss the serial killer Peter Tobin, and the eerie similarities and differences between him and other serial killers operating in the same region around the same time. Throughout the episode, Tom and Simon reflect on the evolution of crime investigation techniques from their own experiences in law enforcement, showcasing their deep knowledge and personal anecdotes.00:00 Introduction and Weekly Recap01:39 Archibald Thompson Hall: The Sociopathic Con Man06:39 Escaped Prisoners and Clever Cons10:03 Bonnie and Clyde: The Glamorous Outlaws15:28 Lucy Letby: The Nurse Turned Killer23:03 The Appin Murders: A Historical Gangland Hit25:29 The Trial of the Appin Murders27:57 The Black Panther: Donald Nielsen's Horrific Crimes30:05 The Psychology of Murder: Nature vs. Choice32:04 Peter Tobin and Scotland's Serial Killers39:54 Reflections on Crime Investigation Techniques46:34 Concluding Thoughts and Future Episodes Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Join us as we delve into the 1752 murder case of Colin Campbell, known as the Red Fox, in the Scottish Highlands. This historical investigation is rife with betrayal, clan rivalry, and lingering speculation. Explore the political tensions of the era, Campbell's ruthless actions, and the controversial trial of James Stewart of the Glens. We discuss various suspects including Alan Breck Stewart, Donald Stewart, and Mungo Campbell, all entangled in a web of mystery that has fascinated historians for centuries. Embrace the enduring intrigue of this famous case and its unanswered questions.Tom and Simon will discuss this and the rest of this weeks episode's in this Sunday's episode.00:00 Introduction to the Scottish Highlands Mystery00:23 Setting the Scene: Political Tensions and Murder01:06 The Controversial Figure: Colin Campbell02:06 The Accusation: James Stewart of the Glens02:29 The Trial: A Questionable Justice03:11 The Execution: A Grim Warning04:02 Lingering Questions: Innocence and Whispers04:29 Introducing Alan Breck Stewart04:37 The Real Alan Breck Stewart05:06 Donald Stewart's Alibi05:34 The Shooting Contest Theory06:30 Mungo Campbell: A Family Feud07:39 Concluding Thoughts on the Appin Murder Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Three Buddy Problem - Episode 18: This week's show covers the White House's new Traffic Light Protocol (TLP) guidance, Reuters expose of Appin as a hack-for-hire mercenary company, Fortinet zero-day exploitation and missing CSRB investigations, major cryptocurrency heists, Apple opening Private Cloud Compute to public inspection, Russians removed from Linux kernel maintenance and China's Antiy beefing with Sentinel One over APT reporting. Cast: Juan Andres Guerrero-Saade (https://twitter.com/juanandres_gs) (SentinelLabs), Costin Raiu (https://twitter.com/craiu) (Art of Noh) and Ryan Naraine (https://twitter.com/ryanaraine) (SecurityWeek).
Caleb and Greg welcome Kelly Paxton, a former fraud investigator who has worked at both the federal and local level to talk about her career and one of her favorite red collar crime stories.SponsorsSafeSend - https://ohmyfraud.promo/safesendMakersHub - https://ohmyfraud.promo/makershubinterVal - https://ohmyfraud.promo/interval(00:00) - Welcome to Oh My Fraud Podcast (03:47) - Kelly Paxton's Background and Career (06:52) - Kelly's Experience with U.S. Customs (12:18) - Pink Collar Crime and Gender Dynamics (21:42) - Podcasting Journey and Fraudish (23:06) - Favorite Fraud Cases: Lori Eisenberg (35:04) - The Benadryl Plot Unfolds (39:37) - Embezzlement and Lifestyle Creep (54:44) - Sentencing Discrepancies and Legal Insights (01:01:26) - Final Thoughts Questions? Need help? Email support@earmarkcpe.com.Buy Kelly's Book!https://www.amazon.com/Embezzlement-Detect-Prevent-Investigate-Pink-Collar/dp/B08QBYKJR1CONNECT WITH KELLYhttps://kellypaxton.comLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/kellypaxtonX: https://x.com/pdxcfeCONNECT WITH THE HOSTSGreg Kyte, CPAX: https://twitter.com/gregkyteLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/gregkyte/Caleb NewquistX: https://twitter.com/cnewquistLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/calebnewquist/Sign up to earn FREE CPEhttps://www.earmark.appIn less than 10 minutes, you can earn 1 hour of NASBA-approved accounting CPE after listening to this episode. Download the app:Apple: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/earmark-cpe/id1562599728Android: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.earmarkcpe.appEmail us at ohmyfraud@earmarkcpe.com
In this episode, we discuss the recap of our Eagles-Packers & Chiefs-Ravens games, NFL season predictions, and sports betting locks‼️ Click the link in the bio‼️ Subscribe and write a review on Apple Podcast search https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/blogaccess1on1/id1466430762#episodeGuid=fc6c01b3-4637-43e2-b48c-ea6fe8bc0e4c click on more episodes, scroll to the bottom and write a review‼️ Please subscribe and turn on alerts by clicking the bell on our YouTube Sports Channel: https://youtube.com/channel/UCDS9I3DI7YoyzxoYZJ6PyEQ Don't forget to subscribe to our Spotify channel and complete the five-star review after listening to the episode‼️ https://open.spotify.com/show/2V5WQPwPrCTKGfHj2ERzl3?si=1RncudRQSQuMrOBVA3rymQ Please support us by paying a monthly subscription to fund player interviews, events, and contest giveaways. https://anchor.fm/blogaccess1on1 Follow us on social media @blogaccess1on1 on Twitter and Instagram for the latest sports news. Also, follow our Facebook page, Blogaccess1on1 Podcast. --- This episode is sponsored by · Anchor: The easiest way to make a podcast. https://anchor.fm/app Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/blogaccess1on1/support Shop now at hibachiproductions.com‼️ Use discount code Blogaccess1on1 to get 20% off your order‼️ https://podcasts.appIn this episode, we discuss Angel Reese vs Caitlin Clark's first showdown in the WNBA, NBA Finals Predictions, and WNBA Fantasy Basketball Season thus far‼️ Click the link in the bio‼️ Subscribe and write a review on Apple Podcast search https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/blogaccess1on1/id1466430762#episodeGuid=fc6c01b3-4637-43e2-b48c-ea6fe8bc0e4c click on more episodes, scroll to the bottom and write a review‼️ Please subscribe and turn on alerts by clicking the bell on our YouTube Sports Channel https://youtube.com/channel/UCDS9I3DI7YoyzxoYZJ6PyEQ Don't forget to subscribe to our Spotify channel and complete the five-star review after listening to the episode‼️ https://open.spotify.com/show/2V5WQPwPrCTKGfHj2ERzl3?si=1RncudRQSQuMrOBVA3rymQ Please support us by paying a monthly subscription to fund player interviews, events, and contest giveaways. https://anchor.fm/blogaccess1on1 Follow us on social media @blogaccess1on1 on Twitter and Instagram for the latest sports news. Also, follow our Facebook page Blogaccess1on1 Podcast. --- This episode is sponsored by · Anchor: The easiest way to make a podcast. https://anchor.fm/app Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/blogaccess1on1/support Shop now at hibachiproductions.com‼️ Use discount code Blogaccess1on1 to get 20% off your order‼️ https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/blogaccess1on1/id1466430762 https://open.spotify.com/show/2V5WQPwPrCTKGfHj2ERzl3?si=1RncudRQSQuMrOBVA3rymQ https://anchor.fm/blogaccess1on1le.com/us/podcast/blogaccess1on1/id1466430762 https://open.spotify.com/show/2V5WQPwPrCTKGfHj2ERzl3?si=1RncudRQSQuMrOBVA3rymQ https://anchor.fm/blogaccess1on1 --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/blogaccess1on1/support
In this episode, we discuss the recap of our 14-man draft PPR Fantasy Football League, thoughts on Week 1 of College Football, and our locks for today‼️Click the link in the bio‼️ Subscribe and write a review on Apple Podcast search https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/blogaccess1on1/id1466430762#episodeGuid=fc6c01b3-4637-43e2-b48c-ea6fe8bc0e4c click on more episodes, scroll to the bottom and write a review‼️Please subscribe and turn on alerts by clicking the bell on our YouTube Sports Channel: https://youtube.com/channel/UCDS9I3DI7YoyzxoYZJ6PyEQDon't forget to subscribe to our Spotify channel and complete the five-star review after listening to the episode‼️ https://open.spotify.com/show/2V5WQPwPrCTKGfHj2ERzl3?si=1RncudRQSQuMrOBVA3rymQPlease support us by paying a monthly subscription to fund player interviews, events, and contest giveaways. https://anchor.fm/blogaccess1on1 Follow us on social media @blogaccess1on1 on Twitter and Instagram for the latest sports news. Also, follow our Facebook page, Blogaccess1on1 Podcast. --- This episode is sponsored by · Anchor: The easiest way to make a podcast. https://anchor.fm/app Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/blogaccess1on1/supportShop now at hibachiproductions.com‼️Use discount code Blogaccess1on1 to get 20% off your order‼️https://podcasts.appIn this episode, we discuss Angel Reese vs Caitlin Clark's first showdown in the WNBA, NBA Finals Predictions, and WNBA Fantasy Basketball Season thus far‼️Click the link in the bio‼️ Subscribe and write a review on Apple Podcast search https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/blogaccess1on1/id1466430762#episodeGuid=fc6c01b3-4637-43e2-b48c-ea6fe8bc0e4c click on more episodes, scroll to the bottom and write a review‼️Please subscribe and turn on alerts by clicking the bell on our YouTube Sports Channel https://youtube.com/channel/UCDS9I3DI7YoyzxoYZJ6PyEQDon't forget to subscribe to our Spotify channel and complete the five-star review after listening to the episode‼️ https://open.spotify.com/show/2V5WQPwPrCTKGfHj2ERzl3?si=1RncudRQSQuMrOBVA3rymQPlease support us by paying a monthly subscription to fund player interviews, events, and contest giveaways. https://anchor.fm/blogaccess1on1 Follow us on social media @blogaccess1on1 on Twitter and Instagram for the latest sports news. Also, follow our Facebook page Blogaccess1on1 Podcast. --- This episode is sponsored by · Anchor: The easiest way to make a podcast. https://anchor.fm/app Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/blogaccess1on1/supportShop now at hibachiproductions.com‼️Use discount code Blogaccess1on1 to get 20% off your order‼️https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/blogaccess1on1/id1466430762https://open.spotify.com/show/2V5WQPwPrCTKGfHj2ERzl3?si=1RncudRQSQuMrOBVA3rymQhttps://anchor.fm/blogaccess1on1le.com/us/podcast/blogaccess1on1/id1466430762https://open.spotify.com/show/2V5WQPwPrCTKGfHj2ERzl3?si=1RncudRQSQuMrOBVA3rymQhttps://anchor.fm/blogaccess1on1 --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/blogaccess1on1/support
In this episode, we discuss the Minnesota Lynx-Las Vegas Aces two-game showdown, the Minnesota Lynx are legit Championship Contenders, and our thoughts on the Las Vegas Aces' struggles‼️ Click the link in the bio‼️ Subscribe and write a review on Apple Podcast search https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/blogaccess1on1/id1466430762#episodeGuid=fc6c01b3-4637-43e2-b48c-ea6fe8bc0e4c click on more episodes, scroll to the bottom and write a review‼️ Please subscribe and turn on alerts by clicking the bell on our YouTube Sports Channel: https://youtube.com/channel/UCDS9I3DI7YoyzxoYZJ6PyEQ Don't forget to subscribe to our Spotify channel and complete the five-star review after listening to the episode‼️ https://open.spotify.com/show/2V5WQPwPrCTKGfHj2ERzl3?si=1RncudRQSQuMrOBVA3rymQ Please support us by paying a monthly subscription to fund player interviews, events, and contest giveaways. https://anchor.fm/blogaccess1on1 Follow us on social media @blogaccess1on1 on Twitter and Instagram for the latest sports news. Also, follow our Facebook page, Blogaccess1on1 Podcast. --- This episode is sponsored by · Anchor: The easiest way to make a podcast. https://anchor.fm/app Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/blogaccess1on1/support Shop now at hibachiproductions.com‼️ Use discount code Blogaccess1on1 to get 20% off your order‼️ https://podcasts.appIn this episode, we discuss Angel Reese vs Caitlin Clark's first showdown in the WNBA, NBA Finals Predictions, and WNBA Fantasy Basketball Season thus far‼️ Click the link in the bio‼️ Subscribe and write a review on Apple Podcast search https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/blogaccess1on1/id1466430762#episodeGuid=fc6c01b3-4637-43e2-b48c-ea6fe8bc0e4c click on more episodes, scroll to the bottom and write a review‼️ Please subscribe and turn on alerts by clicking the bell on our YouTube Sports Channel https://youtube.com/channel/UCDS9I3DI7YoyzxoYZJ6PyEQ Don't forget to subscribe to our Spotify channel and complete the five-star review after listening to the episode‼️ https://open.spotify.com/show/2V5WQPwPrCTKGfHj2ERzl3?si=1RncudRQSQuMrOBVA3rymQ Please support us by paying a monthly subscription to fund player interviews, events, and contest giveaways. https://anchor.fm/blogaccess1on1 Follow us on social media @blogaccess1on1 on Twitter and Instagram for the latest sports news. Also, follow our Facebook page Blogaccess1on1 Podcast. --- This episode is sponsored by · Anchor: The easiest way to make a podcast. https://anchor.fm/app Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/blogaccess1on1/support Shop now at hibachiproductions.com‼️ Use discount code Blogaccess1on1 to get 20% off your order‼️ https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/blogaccess1on1/id1466430762 https://open.spotify.com/show/2V5WQPwPrCTKGfHj2ERzl3?si=1RncudRQSQuMrOBVA3rymQ https://anchor.fm/blogaccess1on1le.com/us/podcast/blogaccess1on1/id1466430762 https://open.spotify.com/show/2V5WQPwPrCTKGfHj2ERzl3?si=1RncudRQSQuMrOBVA3rymQ https://anchor.fm/blogaccess1on1 --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/blogaccess1on1/support
Send me a message - text me! Hello, intuitive eaters! I'm thrilled to be back with you after a short break. I initially planned to return in September, but I missed our conversations and your wonderful support. Thank you for your lovely messages wishing me well during my time off; they truly mean a lot to me!What's New?During my break, I took some time to reflect on the Eat From Within membership options. I'm excited to announce a new 4-month subscription plan! Imagine entering the holiday season with a healthier relationship with food and body image. You could enjoy Christmas dinner without the stress of calorie counting or worrying about your outfit. Check out the links section below in the show notes to sign up!This Week's Topic: My Experience with NoomIn this episode, I'm telling you all about my experience with Noom, a popular app that claims to support weight loss through a unique approach. I wanted to try it on your behalf and share my insights from an intuitive eating perspective. I'm going to spill the beans on all of this:The sign-up processCalorie counting, and whether I was given enoughTracking and logging foodColour-coded food categoriesDaily weigh-ins and how they made me feelExercise trackingConstant reminders from the appIn-app lessonsNoom's holistic approach to well-beingHow it works with intuitive eatingHow it feels mentally as well as physicallyAnd whether I'd recommend it or notAlso, the episode I refer to about standing on the scales and weighing myself, and what that brought up for me, is way back at episode 4. Go give it a listen!Get 'Eat From Within - The 3 Steps To Food Freedom' course totally free! Support the Show.
In this episode, we discuss the 100-meter Women's Finals, Nadal and Alcaraz losing the doubles in the Olympics to the USA team Ram and Krajicek, and our thoughts on the NFL Top 100 list ‼️ Click the link in the bio‼️ Subscribe and write a review on Apple Podcast search https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/blogaccess1on1/id1466430762#episodeGuid=fc6c01b3-4637-43e2-b48c-ea6fe8bc0e4c click on more episodes, scroll to the bottom and write a review‼️ Please subscribe and turn on alerts by clicking the bell on our YouTube Sports Channel: https://youtube.com/channel/UCDS9I3DI7YoyzxoYZJ6PyEQ Don't forget to subscribe to our Spotify channel and complete the five-star review after listening to the episode‼️ https://open.spotify.com/show/2V5WQPwPrCTKGfHj2ERzl3?si=1RncudRQSQuMrOBVA3rymQ Please support us by paying a monthly subscription to fund player interviews, events, and contest giveaways. https://anchor.fm/blogaccess1on1 Follow us on social media @blogaccess1on1 on Twitter and Instagram for the latest sports news. Also, follow our Facebook page, Blogaccess1on1 Podcast. --- · Anchor sponsors this episode: The easiest way to make a podcast. https://anchor.fm/app Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/blogaccess1on1/support Shop now at hibachiproductions.com‼️ Use discount code Blogaccess1on1 to get 20% off your order‼️ https://podcasts.appIn this episode, we discuss Angel Reese vs Caitlin Clark's first showdown in the WNBA, NBA Finals Predictions, and WNBA Fantasy Basketball Season thus far‼️ Click the link in the bio‼️ Subscribe and write a review on Apple Podcast search https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/blogaccess1on1/id1466430762#episodeGuid=fc6c01b3-4637-43e2-b48c-ea6fe8bc0e4c click on more episodes, scroll to the bottom and write a review‼️ Please subscribe and turn on alerts by clicking the bell on our YouTube Sports Channel https://youtube.com/channel/UCDS9I3DI7YoyzxoYZJ6PyEQ Don't forget to subscribe to our Spotify channel and complete the five-star review after listening to the episode‼️ https://open.spotify.com/show/2V5WQPwPrCTKGfHj2ERzl3?si=1RncudRQSQuMrOBVA3rymQ Please support us by paying a monthly subscription to fund player interviews, events, and contest giveaways. https://anchor.fm/blogaccess1on1 Follow us on social media @blogaccess1on1 on Twitter and Instagram for the latest sports news. Also, follow our Facebook page, Blogaccess1on1 Podcast. --- This episode is sponsored by · Anchor: The easiest way to make a podcast. https://anchor.fm/app Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/blogaccess1on1/support Shop now at hibachiproductions.com‼️ Use discount code Blogaccess1on1 to get 20% off your order‼️ https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/blogaccess1on1/id1466430762 https://open.spotify.com/show/2V5WQPwPrCTKGfHj2ERzl3?si=1RncudRQSQuMrOBVA3rymQ https://anchor.fm/blogaccess1on1le.com/us/podcast/blogaccess1on1/id1466430762 https://open.spotify.com/show/2V5WQPwPrCTKGfHj2ERzl3?si=1RncudRQSQuMrOBVA3rymQ https://anchor.fm/blogaccess1on1 --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/blogaccess1on1/support
In this episode, we discuss what NFL players you need to draft as sleepers in your fantasy football draft this year, and what we are looking forward to watching for the Olympics‼️ Click the link in the bio‼️ Subscribe and write a review on Apple Podcast search https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/blogaccess1on1/id1466430762#episodeGuid=fc6c01b3-4637-43e2-b48c-ea6fe8bc0e4c click on more episodes, scroll to the bottom and write a review‼️ Please subscribe and turn on alerts by clicking the bell on our YouTube Sports Channel: https://youtube.com/channel/UCDS9I3DI7YoyzxoYZJ6PyEQ Don't forget to subscribe to our Spotify channel and complete the five-star review after listening to the episode‼️ https://open.spotify.com/show/2V5WQPwPrCTKGfHj2ERzl3?si=1RncudRQSQuMrOBVA3rymQ Please support us by paying a monthly subscription to fund player interviews, events, and contest giveaways. https://anchor.fm/blogaccess1on1 Follow us on social media @blogaccess1on1 on Twitter and Instagram for the latest sports news. Also, follow our Facebook page, Blogaccess1on1 Podcast. --- This episode is sponsored by · Anchor: The easiest way to make a podcast. https://anchor.fm/app Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/blogaccess1on1/support Shop now at hibachiproductions.com‼️ Use discount code Blogaccess1on1 to get 20% off your order‼️ https://podcasts.appIn this episode, we discuss Angel Reese vs Caitlin Clark's first showdown in the WNBA, NBA Finals Predictions, and WNBA Fantasy Basketball Season thus far‼️ Click the link in the bio‼️ Subscribe and write a review on Apple Podcast search https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/blogaccess1on1/id1466430762#episodeGuid=fc6c01b3-4637-43e2-b48c-ea6fe8bc0e4c click on more episodes, scroll to the bottom and write a review‼️ Please subscribe and turn on alerts by clicking the bell on our YouTube Sports Channel https://youtube.com/channel/UCDS9I3DI7YoyzxoYZJ6PyEQ Don't forget to subscribe to our Spotify channel and complete the five-star review after listening to the episode‼️ https://open.spotify.com/show/2V5WQPwPrCTKGfHj2ERzl3?si=1RncudRQSQuMrOBVA3rymQ Please support us by paying a monthly subscription to fund player interviews, events, and contest giveaways. https://anchor.fm/blogaccess1on1 Follow us on social media @blogaccess1on1 on Twitter and Instagram for the latest sports news. Also, follow our Facebook page Blogaccess1on1 Podcast. --- This episode is sponsored by · Anchor: The easiest way to make a podcast. https://anchor.fm/app Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/blogaccess1on1/support Shop now at hibachiproductions.com‼️ Use discount code Blogaccess1on1 to get 20% off your order‼️ https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/blogaccess1on1/id1466430762 https://open.spotify.com/show/2V5WQPwPrCTKGfHj2ERzl3?si=1RncudRQSQuMrOBVA3rymQ https://anchor.fm/blogaccess1on1le.com/us/podcast/blogaccess1on1/id1466430762 https://open.spotify.com/show/2V5WQPwPrCTKGfHj2ERzl3?si=1RncudRQSQuMrOBVA3rymQ https://anchor.fm/blogaccess1on1 --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/blogaccess1on1/support
In this episode, we discuss players not to draft or stay away from as long as possible for fantasy football, the WNBA All-Star Game, and our thoughts on Team USA vs Sudan game‼️ Click the link in the bio‼️ Subscribe and write a review on Apple Podcast search https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/blogaccess1on1/id1466430762#episodeGuid=fc6c01b3-4637-43e2-b48c-ea6fe8bc0e4c click on more episodes, scroll to the bottom and write a review‼️ Please subscribe and turn on alerts by clicking the bell on our YouTube Sports Channel: https://youtube.com/channel/UCDS9I3DI7YoyzxoYZJ6PyEQ Don't forget to subscribe to our Spotify channel and complete the five-star review after listening to the episode‼️ https://open.spotify.com/show/2V5WQPwPrCTKGfHj2ERzl3?si=1RncudRQSQuMrOBVA3rymQ Please support us by paying a monthly subscription to fund player interviews, events, and contest giveaways. https://anchor.fm/blogaccess1on1 Follow us on social media @blogaccess1on1 on Twitter and Instagram for the latest sports news. Also, follow our Facebook page, Blogaccess1on1 Podcast. --- This episode is sponsored by · Anchor: The easiest way to make a podcast. https://anchor.fm/app Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/blogaccess1on1/support Shop now at hibachiproductions.com‼️ Use discount code Blogaccess1on1 to get 20% off your order‼️ https://podcasts.appIn this episode, we discuss Angel Reese vs Caitlin Clark's first showdown in the WNBA, NBA Finals Predictions, and WNBA Fantasy Basketball Season thus far‼️ Click the link in the bio‼️ Subscribe and write a review on Apple Podcast search https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/blogaccess1on1/id1466430762#episodeGuid=fc6c01b3-4637-43e2-b48c-ea6fe8bc0e4c click on more episodes, scroll to the bottom and write a review‼️ Please subscribe and turn on alerts by clicking the bell on our YouTube Sports Channel https://youtube.com/channel/UCDS9I3DI7YoyzxoYZJ6PyEQ Don't forget to subscribe to our Spotify channel and complete the five-star review after listening to the episode‼️ https://open.spotify.com/show/2V5WQPwPrCTKGfHj2ERzl3?si=1RncudRQSQuMrOBVA3rymQ Please support us by paying a monthly subscription to fund player interviews, events, and contest giveaways. https://anchor.fm/blogaccess1on1 Follow us on social media @blogaccess1on1 on Twitter and Instagram for the latest sports news. Also, follow our Facebook page Blogaccess1on1 Podcast. --- This episode is sponsored by · Anchor: The easiest way to make a podcast. https://anchor.fm/app Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/blogaccess1on1/support Shop now at hibachiproductions.com‼️ Use discount code Blogaccess1on1 to get 20% off your order‼️ https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/blogaccess1on1/id1466430762 https://open.spotify.com/show/2V5WQPwPrCTKGfHj2ERzl3?si=1RncudRQSQuMrOBVA3rymQ https://anchor.fm/blogaccess1on1le.com/us/podcast/blogaccess1on1/id1466430762 https://open.spotify.com/show/2V5WQPwPrCTKGfHj2ERzl3?si=1RncudRQSQuMrOBVA3rymQ https://anchor.fm/blogaccess1on1 --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/blogaccess1on1/support
In this episode, we discuss Jaylen Brown being snubbed from Team USA and our thoughts on their first exhibition game against Canada‼️ Click the link in the bio‼️ Subscribe and write a review on Apple Podcast search https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/blogaccess1on1/id1466430762#episodeGuid=fc6c01b3-4637-43e2-b48c-ea6fe8bc0e4c click on more episodes, scroll to the bottom and write a review‼️ Please subscribe and turn on alerts by clicking the bell on our YouTube Sports Channel: https://youtube.com/channel/UCDS9I3DI7YoyzxoYZJ6PyEQ Don't forget to subscribe to our Spotify channel and complete the five-star review after listening to the episode‼️ https://open.spotify.com/show/2V5WQPwPrCTKGfHj2ERzl3?si=1RncudRQSQuMrOBVA3rymQ Please support us by paying a monthly subscription to fund player interviews, events, and contest giveaways. https://anchor.fm/blogaccess1on1 Follow us on social media @blogaccess1on1 on Twitter and Instagram for the latest sports news. Also, follow our Facebook page, Blogaccess1on1 Podcast. --- This episode is sponsored by · Anchor: The easiest way to make a podcast. https://anchor.fm/app Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/blogaccess1on1/support Shop now at hibachiproductions.com‼️ Use discount code Blogaccess1on1 to get 20% off your order‼️ https://podcasts.appIn this episode, we discuss Angel Reese vs Caitlin Clark's first showdown in the WNBA, NBA Finals Predictions, and WNBA Fantasy Basketball Season thus far‼️ Click the link in the bio‼️ Subscribe and write a review on Apple Podcast search https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/blogaccess1on1/id1466430762#episodeGuid=fc6c01b3-4637-43e2-b48c-ea6fe8bc0e4c click on more episodes, scroll to the bottom and write a review‼️ Please subscribe and turn on alerts by clicking the bell on our YouTube Sports Channel https://youtube.com/channel/UCDS9I3DI7YoyzxoYZJ6PyEQ Don't forget to subscribe to our Spotify channel and complete the five-star review after listening to the episode‼️ https://open.spotify.com/show/2V5WQPwPrCTKGfHj2ERzl3?si=1RncudRQSQuMrOBVA3rymQ Please support us by paying a monthly subscription to fund player interviews, events, and contest giveaways. https://anchor.fm/blogaccess1on1 Follow us on social media @blogaccess1on1 on Twitter and Instagram for the latest sports news. Also, follow our Facebook page Blogaccess1on1 Podcast. --- This episode is sponsored by · Anchor: The easiest way to make a podcast. https://anchor.fm/app Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/blogaccess1on1/support Shop now at hibachiproductions.com‼️ Use discount code Blogaccess1on1 to get 20% off your order‼️ https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/blogaccess1on1/id1466430762 https://open.spotify.com/show/2V5WQPwPrCTKGfHj2ERzl3?si=1RncudRQSQuMrOBVA3rymQ https://anchor.fm/blogaccess1on1le.com/us/podcast/blogaccess1on1/id1466430762 https://open.spotify.com/show/2V5WQPwPrCTKGfHj2ERzl3?si=1RncudRQSQuMrOBVA3rymQ https://anchor.fm/blogaccess1on1 --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/blogaccess1on1/support
In this episode, we discuss our thoughts on NBA Free Agency thus far and Fever-Liberty recap. Click the link in the bio‼️ Subscribe and write a review on Apple Podcast search https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/blogaccess1on1/id1466430762#episodeGuid=fc6c01b3-4637-43e2-b48c-ea6fe8bc0e4c click on more episodes, scroll to the bottom and write a review‼️ Please subscribe and turn on alerts by clicking the bell on our YouTube Sports Channel: https://youtube.com/channel/UCDS9I3DI7YoyzxoYZJ6PyEQ Don't forget to subscribe to our Spotify channel and complete the five-star review after listening to the episode‼️ https://open.spotify.com/show/2V5WQPwPrCTKGfHj2ERzl3?si=1RncudRQSQuMrOBVA3rymQ Please support us by paying a monthly subscription to fund player interviews, events, and contest giveaways. https://anchor.fm/blogaccess1on1 Follow us on social media @blogaccess1on1 on Twitter and Instagram for the latest sports news. Also, follow our Facebook page, Blogaccess1on1 Podcast. --- This episode is sponsored by · Anchor: The easiest way to make a podcast. https://anchor.fm/app Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/blogaccess1on1/support Shop now at hibachiproductions.com‼️ Use discount code Blogaccess1on1 to get 20% off your order‼️ https://podcasts.appIn this episode, we discuss Angel Reese vs Caitlin Clark's first showdown in the WNBA, NBA Finals Predictions, and WNBA Fantasy Basketball Season thus far‼️ Click the link in the bio‼️ Subscribe and write a review on Apple Podcast search https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/blogaccess1on1/id1466430762#episodeGuid=fc6c01b3-4637-43e2-b48c-ea6fe8bc0e4c click on more episodes, scroll to the bottom and write a review‼️ Please subscribe and turn on alerts by clicking the bell on our YouTube Sports Channel https://youtube.com/channel/UCDS9I3DI7YoyzxoYZJ6PyEQ Don't forget to subscribe to our Spotify channel and complete the five-star review after listening to the episode‼️ https://open.spotify.com/show/2V5WQPwPrCTKGfHj2ERzl3?si=1RncudRQSQuMrOBVA3rymQ Please support us by paying a monthly subscription to fund player interviews, events, and contest giveaways. https://anchor.fm/blogaccess1on1 Follow us on social media @blogaccess1on1 on Twitter and Instagram for the latest sports news. Also, follow our Facebook page Blogaccess1on1 Podcast. --- This episode is sponsored by · Anchor: The easiest way to make a podcast. https://anchor.fm/app Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/blogaccess1on1/support Shop now at hibachiproductions.com‼️ Use discount code Blogaccess1on1 to get 20% off your order‼️ https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/blogaccess1on1/id1466430762 https://open.spotify.com/show/2V5WQPwPrCTKGfHj2ERzl3?si=1RncudRQSQuMrOBVA3rymQ https://anchor.fm/blogaccess1on1le.com/us/podcast/blogaccess1on1/id1466430762 https://open.spotify.com/show/2V5WQPwPrCTKGfHj2ERzl3?si=1RncudRQSQuMrOBVA3rymQ https://anchor.fm/blogaccess1on1 --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/blogaccess1on1/support
In this episode, we discuss Bronny James being drafted by the Los Angeles Lakers, creating the first father-son duo to play in the NBA, NBA Free Agency predictions, and the NBA Draft recap Click the link in the bio‼️ Subscribe and write a review on Apple Podcast search https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/blogaccess1on1/id1466430762#episodeGuid=fc6c01b3-4637-43e2-b48c-ea6fe8bc0e4c click on more episodes, scroll to the bottom and write a review‼️ Please subscribe and turn on alerts by clicking the bell on our YouTube Sports Channel: https://youtube.com/channel/UCDS9I3DI7YoyzxoYZJ6PyEQ Don't forget to subscribe to our Spotify channel and complete the five-star review after listening to the episode‼️ https://open.spotify.com/show/2V5WQPwPrCTKGfHj2ERzl3?si=1RncudRQSQuMrOBVA3rymQ Please support us by paying a monthly subscription to fund player interviews, events, and contest giveaways. https://anchor.fm/blogaccess1on1 Follow us on social media @blogaccess1on1 on Twitter and Instagram for the latest sports news. Also, follow our Facebook page, Blogaccess1on1 Podcast. --- This episode is sponsored by · Anchor: The easiest way to make a podcast. https://anchor.fm/app Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/blogaccess1on1/support Shop now at hibachiproductions.com‼️ Use discount code Blogaccess1on1 to get 20% off your order‼️ https://podcasts.appIn this episode, we discuss Angel Reese vs Caitlin Clark's first showdown in the WNBA, NBA Finals Predictions, and WNBA Fantasy Basketball Season thus far‼️ Click the link in the bio‼️ Subscribe and write a review on Apple Podcast search https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/blogaccess1on1/id1466430762#episodeGuid=fc6c01b3-4637-43e2-b48c-ea6fe8bc0e4c click on more episodes, scroll to the bottom and write a review‼️ Please subscribe and turn on alerts by clicking the bell on our YouTube Sports Channel https://youtube.com/channel/UCDS9I3DI7YoyzxoYZJ6PyEQ Don't forget to subscribe to our Spotify channel and complete the five-star review after listening to the episode‼️ https://open.spotify.com/show/2V5WQPwPrCTKGfHj2ERzl3?si=1RncudRQSQuMrOBVA3rymQ Please support us by paying a monthly subscription to fund player interviews, events, and contest giveaways. https://anchor.fm/blogaccess1on1 Follow us on social media @blogaccess1on1 on Twitter and Instagram for the latest sports news. Also, follow our Facebook page Blogaccess1on1 Podcast. --- This episode is sponsored by · Anchor: The easiest way to make a podcast. https://anchor.fm/app Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/blogaccess1on1/support Shop now at hibachiproductions.com‼️ Use discount code Blogaccess1on1 to get 20% off your order‼️ https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/blogaccess1on1/id1466430762 https://open.spotify.com/show/2V5WQPwPrCTKGfHj2ERzl3?si=1RncudRQSQuMrOBVA3rymQ https://anchor.fm/blogaccess1on1le.com/us/podcast/blogaccess1on1/id1466430762 https://open.spotify.com/show/2V5WQPwPrCTKGfHj2ERzl3?si=1RncudRQSQuMrOBVA3rymQ https://anchor.fm/blogaccess1on1 --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/blogaccess1on1/support
In this episode, we discuss the NBA Finals recap and thoughts on Caitlin Clark rookie season thus far‼️ Click the link in the bio‼️ Subscribe and write a review on Apple Podcast search https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/blogaccess1on1/id1466430762#episodeGuid=fc6c01b3-4637-43e2-b48c-ea6fe8bc0e4c click on more episodes, scroll to the bottom and write a review‼️ Please subscribe and turn on alerts by clicking the bell on our YouTube Sports Channel https://youtube.com/channel/UCDS9I3DI7YoyzxoYZJ6PyEQ Don't forget to subscribe to our Spotify channel and complete the five-star review after listening to the episode‼️ https://open.spotify.com/show/2V5WQPwPrCTKGfHj2ERzl3?si=1RncudRQSQuMrOBVA3rymQ Please support us by paying a monthly subscription to fund player interviews, events, and contest giveaways. https://anchor.fm/blogaccess1on1 Follow us on social media @blogaccess1on1 on Twitter and Instagram for the latest sports news. Also, follow our Facebook page Blogaccess1on1 Podcast. --- This episode is sponsored by · Anchor: The easiest way to make a podcast. https://anchor.fm/app Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/blogaccess1on1/support Shop now at hibachiproductions.com‼️ Use discount code Blogaccess1on1 to get 20% off your order‼️ https://podcasts.appIn this episode, we discuss Angel Reese vs Caitlin Clark's first showdown in the WNBA, NBA Finals Predictions, and WNBA Fantasy Basketball Season thus far‼️ Click the link in the bio‼️ Subscribe and write a review on Apple Podcast search https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/blogaccess1on1/id1466430762#episodeGuid=fc6c01b3-4637-43e2-b48c-ea6fe8bc0e4c click on more episodes, scroll to the bottom and write a review‼️ Please subscribe and turn on alerts by clicking the bell on our YouTube Sports Channel https://youtube.com/channel/UCDS9I3DI7YoyzxoYZJ6PyEQ Don't forget to subscribe to our Spotify channel and complete the five-star review after listening to the episode‼️ https://open.spotify.com/show/2V5WQPwPrCTKGfHj2ERzl3?si=1RncudRQSQuMrOBVA3rymQ Please support us by paying a monthly subscription to fund player interviews, events, and contest giveaways. https://anchor.fm/blogaccess1on1 Follow us on social media @blogaccess1on1 on Twitter and Instagram for the latest sports news. Also, follow our Facebook page Blogaccess1on1 Podcast. --- This episode is sponsored by · Anchor: The easiest way to make a podcast. https://anchor.fm/app Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/blogaccess1on1/support Shop now at hibachiproductions.com‼️ Use discount code Blogaccess1on1 to get 20% off your order‼️ https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/blogaccess1on1/id1466430762 https://open.spotify.com/show/2V5WQPwPrCTKGfHj2ERzl3?si=1RncudRQSQuMrOBVA3rymQ https://anchor.fm/blogaccess1on1le.com/us/podcast/blogaccess1on1/id1466430762 https://open.spotify.com/show/2V5WQPwPrCTKGfHj2ERzl3?si=1RncudRQSQuMrOBVA3rymQ https://anchor.fm/blogaccess1on1 --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/blogaccess1on1/support
In this episode, we discuss the USA Women's Basketball roster and who was snubbed from this team, thoughts on Game 1 of the NBA Finals, and Game 2 predictions ‼️ Click the link in the bio‼️ Subscribe and write a review on Apple Podcast search https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/blogaccess1on1/id1466430762#episodeGuid=fc6c01b3-4637-43e2-b48c-ea6fe8bc0e4c click on more episodes, scroll to the bottom and write a review‼️ Please subscribe and turn on alerts by clicking the bell on our YouTube Sports Channel https://youtube.com/channel/UCDS9I3DI7YoyzxoYZJ6PyEQ Don't forget to subscribe to our Spotify channel and complete the five-star review after listening to the episode‼️ https://open.spotify.com/show/2V5WQPwPrCTKGfHj2ERzl3?si=1RncudRQSQuMrOBVA3rymQ Please support us by paying a monthly subscription to fund player interviews, events, and contest giveaways. https://anchor.fm/blogaccess1on1 Follow us on social media @blogaccess1on1 on Twitter and Instagram for the latest sports news. Also, follow our Facebook page Blogaccess1on1 Podcast. --- This episode is sponsored by · Anchor: The easiest way to make a podcast. https://anchor.fm/app Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/blogaccess1on1/support Shop now at hibachiproductions.com‼️ Use discount code Blogaccess1on1 to get 20% off your order‼️ https://podcasts.appIn this episode, we discuss Angel Reese vs Caitlin Clark's first showdown in the WNBA, NBA Finals Predictions, and WNBA Fantasy Basketball Season thus far‼️ Click the link in the bio‼️ Subscribe and write a review on Apple Podcast search https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/blogaccess1on1/id1466430762#episodeGuid=fc6c01b3-4637-43e2-b48c-ea6fe8bc0e4c click on more episodes, scroll to the bottom and write a review‼️ Please subscribe and turn on alerts by clicking the bell on our YouTube Sports Channel https://youtube.com/channel/UCDS9I3DI7YoyzxoYZJ6PyEQ Don't forget to subscribe to our Spotify channel and complete the five-star review after listening to the episode‼️ https://open.spotify.com/show/2V5WQPwPrCTKGfHj2ERzl3?si=1RncudRQSQuMrOBVA3rymQ Please support us by paying a monthly subscription to fund player interviews, events, and contest giveaways. https://anchor.fm/blogaccess1on1 Follow us on social media @blogaccess1on1 on Twitter and Instagram for the latest sports news. Also, follow our Facebook page Blogaccess1on1 Podcast. --- This episode is sponsored by · Anchor: The easiest way to make a podcast. https://anchor.fm/app Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/blogaccess1on1/support Shop now at hibachiproductions.com‼️ Use discount code Blogaccess1on1 to get 20% off your order‼️ https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/blogaccess1on1/id1466430762 https://open.spotify.com/show/2V5WQPwPrCTKGfHj2ERzl3?si=1RncudRQSQuMrOBVA3rymQ https://anchor.fm/blogaccess1on1le.com/us/podcast/blogaccess1on1/id1466430762 https://open.spotify.com/show/2V5WQPwPrCTKGfHj2ERzl3?si=1RncudRQSQuMrOBVA3rymQ https://anchor.fm/blogaccess1on1 --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/blogaccess1on1/support
During the Jacobite Rising of 1745, clans that were already at feud chose different sides and continued the conflict. But with the failure of the rising and its disastrous conclusion at the Battle of Culloden, sometimes the fighting didn't stop. Check out this story of conflict between the Stewarts of Appin and the Campbells. Website: www.scottish-clans.com Contribute to the cause! Online Course: Origins of the Scottish Clans 101 Scottish Clans YouTube Channel Sponsor: www.usakilts.com
Frontier War Stories has returned, and in this episode we yarn up with the deadly Peter Jones from WINGA MYAMLY, to learn about the first sanctioned massacres to happen, known as the Appin Massacres. We look into this history, the reasoning and what this has meant to the Dharrawal people and the general community of Campbelltown. This episode of Frontier War Stories is part of a ten-part special series made with support from Koori Mail. The Voice of Indigenous Australia, Koori Mail is 100% Aboriginal-owned and 100% self-funded. Visit koorimail.com for more information. Frontier War Stories is edited by Awesome Black.The post The Appin Massacre with Peter Jones first appeared on Awesome Black - First Nations Creatives.
*Content Warning: This episode of Doin' Time may contain audio images of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people who have died, and discussion of Deaths in Custody.To begin the show Marisa is joined by Aunty Glenda Chalker, an Elder of the Cubbitch Barta Clan, and descendant of a survivor of the 1816 Appin massacre. As well as Peter Jones, a Campbelltown resident and community worker who helps facilitate the Annual Appin Massacre Memorial. They discuss the importance of the upcoming April 17th Appin Massacre Memorial Ceremony by the Winga Myamly Reconciliation Group in honour of the Dharawal People who perished in the massacre of 1816. After that, we hear from David Glanz of the Refugee Action Collective, who talks about the recent change in government legislation and its consequential violation of the most basic human rights for refugees and asylum seekers.
This Shortcast is with the current Mayor of Wollondilly Shire Council, the honourable Matt Gould. Located on the outskirts of greater Sydney, the south-west LGA is currently the subject of immense development, namely at the greenfields developments at Wilton and Appin. Here, Gould discusses the opening of Worklife Picton, a new co-working space in the Shire's heart, the current housing crisis and the need for infrastructure for the developments within his local area.Interview by Jarrod Reedie.
Episode 152: (2023 4th Quarter App Bonanza)Welcome to episode 152 the 4th and final “App Bonanza” for the year 2023. In this episode, we bring you lots of app demos. GSM ARENAFirst up, Austin takes you on a tour of the app for the popular GSM Arena which makes it easier to navigate the site through the app as to using the browser. Demo of Podurama podcast appIn the heels of that app, Warren demos a podcast catcher app with a great potential called “Podurama.”Demo of Control Screen orientationNext, Kareen demos “Control Screen orientation”.Demo of MacroDroidJohn Dyer brings us the highly customizable “MacroDroid.”Demo of UTSUp next, Austin returns with another app, this time, it's a popular train-travel app in India called “UTS—Unreserved Ticket System.” Demo of FotMobFor football (Soccer) lovers, Salih demonstrated “FotMob.” Demo of Charge MeterIn keeping an eye on your battery and how it charges and its health and all of that, Warren returns with “Charge Meter.” Demo of Audio RelayClosing up the “app Bonanza” in a party-style-like fashion, Brandon Hennis and his crew bring us “Audio Relay.”Staying in touch.Make a donation Email us with suggestions or comments, Send in your Android journey stories, subscribe to our Email list, join our Telegram group, follow us on Twitter, subscribe to our YouTube and rumble channel and join our Club on Club house.Leave us a voice message via our suggestions, comments and questions phone number at: 307-202-9797. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Pro MX Rewind presented by Leatt. Trent is joined every week by Elijah Wiese to break down Round 2 at Appin. After an absolutely scorching weekend, there were many questions answered but still so many questions unanswered. MX1 overall winner Aaron Tanti calls in to talk about his day, and so too does MX3 winner Ky Woods after a near-perfect day. Then another rider from Privateer Island Liam Jackson calls in after being followed by Elijah all day for the Privateer Profile. Leatt is a head-to-toe brand that offers protection and style. Founded in 2001 by Dr. Chris Leatt with the sole purpose of keeping riders safe. This methodology remains today through extensive research development and testing. Find Leatt today at your local Retailer Leatt – Whites Powersports --- Send in a voice message: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/motolimited/message
Show 114, Trent is back after a big weekend of racing down at Appin. On this episode, Jackson Richardson is back with his new segment Richo's Report as he breaks down all that happened at the Detroit Supercross in his own way. Then John Bova another Australian Privateer from the island calls into the show to talk about his program and running inside the top 5 in MX2 moto 1. motolimited.au go and get the new merch now. www.serco.com.au fisthandwear.com.au FLY Racing mpesuspension.com.au linkint.com.au qb4.com.au heatwavevisual.com.au @t.maher83 --- Send in a voice message: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/motolimited/message
The first AMX Superstores ProMX Review show is here for 2023! Joe Stevens and James Alen recap all the action from Round 2 in Appin. Joe Caught up post race with MX1 Winner Aaron Tanti, MX2 Winner Nathan Crawford, MX2 defending Champion Wilson Todd, Yamaha Privateer Dean Ferris, Honda HRC Team Principal Yarrive Konsky, KTM's Kayden Minear and Yamalube Yamaha's Jayce Cosford.Check it out let us know what you want to hear about in the upcoming Review Shows and dont forget to check out the AMX ProMX Radio Show from the lunch break at Appin where Joe Stevens and Darnell Official caught up with MXW Champion Charli Cannon before she heads off to race the WMX at MXGP.Special thanks for AMX Superstores for their continued support of the Inside Dirt Network.
MotoOnline's Express delivers a post-race review podcast from Appin's second round of the 2023 Penrite ProMX Championship, as Nic Still and Dylan Wills reflect upon a scorching race-day at the New South Wales venue.
We are back with live shows and the first AMX Superstores ProMX Radio show from Appin Round 2. Joe Stevens and Darnell Official hang out with the AMX Superstores crew and Charli Cannon to bench race all things Appin and make predictions on how the day would unfold.
In our MotoOnline Post-Race podcast interviews, hear from Jayce Cosford, Wilson Todd, Rhys Budd, Dean Ferris, Nathan Crawford, Brodie Connolly, Cody Cooper and Aaron Tanti following the second round of the 2023 Penrite ProMX Championship today at Appin!
MotoOnline.com.au's MotoNow podcast is our take on all things happening at MotoOnline from our perspective. In this week's edition, Nic Still and Dylan Wills look forward as the Penrite ProMX Championship makes its anticipated return to Appin this Sunday, marking round two of the 2023 season.
Tonight's guest, Yowie Dan, had his 1st Yowie encounter in July of 2005, at a greyhound racing track, in Appin, Australia. He was waiting with his dog, Sally, by the track because it wasn't time for her race yet. All of a sudden, Sally turned and started barking frantically at a stand of tea trees. That was totally out of character for Sally. That was actually the 1st time Dan had ever heard Sally bark at anything. When Dan looked down at her, her hair was bristled up and she had put herself between Dan and the stand of tea trees. Seconds later, an enormous roar erupted from the trees. Dan was beside himself, trying to figure out what was dealing with. Naturally, he'd never experienced anything like that. He didn't see the Yowie that was just out of sight that day, but when he had his next encounter with a Yowie, in the Blue Mountains, near Glenbrook, he saw a 12-footer! Yowie Dan has had numerous sightings and encounters with Yowies. We hope you'll tune in and listen to him talk about several of them, on tonight's show.If you've had a Bigfoot sighting and would like to be a guest, on the show, please go to https://MyBigfootSighting.com and let us know. We'd love to hear from you.If you'd like to help support the show, by buying your own My Bigfoot Sighting t-shirt, sweatshirt, or tank top, please visit the My Bigfoot Sighting Show Store Page, by going to...https://dogman-encounters.myshopify.com/collections/mens-my-bigfoot-sighting-collectionShow's theme song, "Banjo Music," courtesy Nathan BrumleyI produce 3 other podcasts that are available for listening on your favorite podcast app. If you haven't checked them out, already, here are links to them…Bigfoot Eyewitness Radio https://www.spreaker.com/show/bigfoot-eyewitness-radio_1Dogman Encounters https://www.spreaker.com/show/dogman-encounters-radio_2My Paranormal Experience https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCyxVu8_b4yxLHcZ1fNPmRkA/videosThanks for listening!
Listen in podcast appIn this week's episode of Reformed Millennials, Joel and Cam talk geopolitics and the collapse of Sri Lanka at the hands of Global Elites, the impacts of the USD strength and marketing strategies for successful sporting leagues.PS: The links at the bottom of the newsletter are fantastic this week.It’s a long-term game. Stay the course.Listen on Apple, Spotify, or Google Podcasts.If you aren’t in the Reformed Millennials Facebook Group join us for daily updates, discussions, and deep dives into the investable trends Millennials should be paying attention to.👉 For specific investment questions or advice contact Joel @ Gold Investment Management.📈📊Market Update💵📉Do you see what happens when the US Dollar is falling?Stocks and Crypto go up.This IS the catalyst.Do you want to know what will get stocks and crypto back into bull markets?It's not the fed, it's not the president, it certainly isn't a former president, it isn't a war or any kind of "news" event.It's the US Dollar.The stock market had all the reasons to sell off last week and it didn’t. Many stocks managed to hold and even rally after record and accelerating inflation data. It feels wrong to be bullish while the Fed is still tightening but it is double-wrong not to take long setups when they appear. And we saw some relatively constructive price action towards the end of last week. Some names stood out: SWAV, LNTH, CELH, CCRN, OPCH, LRN, VERU, etc. Keep in mind that none of those has reported earnings yet. One earnings report can end their enthusiasm overnight. This is exactly what happened with the stocks that were showing relative strength during the previous earnings window.Biotech has held the best during the more recent market volatility. XBI tested its 10-day EMA a couple of times and it bounced. The dips are getting bought in the sector. We continue to see constructive price action.The new earnings season has just begun. JP Morgan missed estimates sending most financials to new 52-week lows last Thursday only to see them bouncing strong back the next day. NFLX was last night and TSLA tomorrow alongside a bunch of financials. As always, the reaction to earnings will be a much better signal than actual numbers because it will reveal the current market sentiment. Prices move based on sentiment in a short-term perspective.The Oracle and OXY: "The World Has Changed"Last week, Berkshire Hathaway filed a Form 4 disclosing it purchased another 4.3 million shares of Occidental Petroleum (OXY) for ~$250 million. Berkshire now owns 179.7 million shares of OXY, in addition to the Series A Preferred Stock that it acquired through its 2019 agreement with the company (more on this in a moment). At Friday’s close of ~$59 per share, Berkshire’s stake in the common is now worth ~$10.5 billion (~19% of the company).This story started in May 2019, when Berkshire committed to a $10 billion investment in Occidental preferred stock, contingent upon the completion of its ~$38 billion takeover of Anadarko. (CEO Vicki Hollub in May 2019:)“The Berkshire deal was important to make… the timing was critical… Berkshire could do it in an hour and they could do it on public information… Given the timing that we had, there was no other choice.”)As part of the financing, Berkshire also received warrants; Berkshire has the option to purchase 83.9 million shares at an exercise price of $59.62 per share. (“The preferred stock accrues dividends at 8% per annum and is redeemable at the option of Occidental commencing in 2029 at a redemption price equal to 105% of the liquidation preference plus any accumulated and unpaid dividends, or is mandatorily redeemable under certain specified capital return events. Dividends on the preferred may be paid in cash or, at Occidental’s option, in shares of common stock. The warrants are exercisable in whole or in part until one year after the redemption of the preferred stock.”)When Buffett committed to the $10 billion back in May 2019, here’s what he told CNBC’s Becky Quick about how it came together (by the way, Buffett told Becky in this interview that he was willing to put up $20 billion if needed):“I got a call yesterday evening [on May 5th], which is the first time I’ve talked to Occidental since last Sunday [April 28th]. They told me they were going in this direction, which I like, but I had nothing to do with it. We committed $10 billion, and it had nothing to do with how they framed their offer, how much they offered, or anything else – all they knew was that would be sure that they could get $10 billion from us if they completed the deal with Anadarko.”The ”direction” Buffett referred to was Occidental’s ability to avoid a shareholder vote on its Anadarko bid by raising $10 billion from Berkshire. In (lightly) defending management’s actions, which was loudly questioned by investors like Carl Ichan in his letter to Shareholders here.“I would think if you owned Occidental, you’re bullish on oil over the years – and you’re probably bullish on the Permian Basin because they have such a significant portion of their assets there. So, the idea that they will use less stock and more cash as part of the deal… I would think, net, if I had been an OXY holder at the time, I probably would like that kind of a deal… It’s a bet on oil prices over the long-term more than anything else. It’s also a bet the Permian Basin is what it’s cracked up to be… If oil goes way up, you make a lot of money… You have to have a view on oil over time. Charlie and I have some views on that… We feel good about doing the financing.”(From an Oct 2021 EIA report: “The Permian Basin, which spans western Texas and eastern New Mexico, represents the most prolific hydrocarbon production region in the United States. They accounted for about 30% of U.S. crude oil production and 14% of U.S. natural gas production in 2020.”)After that comment, Becky asked Warren why he didn’t just go ahead and buy all of Anadarko if that’s how he felt; his response was noteworthy:“Well, that might have happened if Anadarko had come to us [directly], but we wouldn’t jump into some other deal that we heard about from somebody coming to us and seeking financing. We hope people come to us on businesses, but I had no idea this transaction was going to happen…”Three years later, in March 2022, it became apparent that Buffett’s interest in OXY went beyond the preferred and the warrants. As discussed in detail at the 2022 Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting (held on 05/03/2022) and disclosed in SEC filings, Berkshire started buying OXY common on February 28th, 2022 (it didn’t own a single share before that date). Over a three-week period, Buffett went on a major buying spree: he invested ~$7 billion to buy ~136.4 million shares of OXY (at an average price of ~$51 per share).The initial purchase timing is notable: on February 24th, just a few days before Buffett began buying OXY, Russia invaded Ukraine. Buffett didn’t specifically talk about these geopolitical developments during the shareholder meeting, but he did note that something changed his perception of the bet: “Somebody asked a very good question:"Why weren’t you doing anything on February 20th and why were you doing it, in the case of Occidental, on February 28th? It’s because things developed in a way, and in the case of Occidental specifically, they had an analyst presentation that I read over the weekend… It made nothing but sense, and I decided it would be a good place to put Berkshire’s money… Two weeks later we had 14% of the company… The world changed… We should be very happy that we can produce 11 million barrels a day in the U.S. rather than being able to produce none and having to find those 11 million barrels a day somewhere else in the world to keep the American industrial machine working.”If you're at all interested in why the team and Berkshire are using Oxy as their proxy for energy exposure, i highly recommend listening to the most recent BRK breakdown from colossus podcasts here.💸Reformed Millennials - Post of The Week"Is your business model broken? Are you still making losses after a decade in business? Come talk to the team at TIGER GLOBAL, the leader in bag-holding since 2001!TIGER GLOBAL: We're the greater fool!"From a valuation of $3B to $88M over the past year, after a total of $1.63B in funding. I don’t think there’s been a category with as terrible ROI as food delivery in recent years.Tiger Global is also going from source of envy to ridicule in record time.🐦 Twitter Thread of The Week 🐦Great twitter rant from the ex-ceo of Reddit Yishan.🔮Best Links of The Week🔮Matthew Ball on the Metaverse and Gaming - Tyler Cowan ConversationLifestyles - Morgan HouselRetail Investors Are Buying, Institutions Are Selling - The CompoundChips Act; America, China, and Intel; Micron and TSMC - Ben ThompsonBank of Canada larger-than-expected interest rate hike - CTV News This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.reformedmillennials.com
Listen in podcast appIn this week's episode of Reformed Millennials, Joel and Cam talk Markets, Elon vs. Donald, the new BMW business model and what to expect in NHL free agency.PS: The links at the bottom of the newsletter are fantastic this week.It’s a long-term game. Stay the course.Listen on Apple, Spotify, or Google Podcasts.If you aren’t in the Reformed Millennials Facebook Group join us for daily updates, discussions, and deep dives into the investable trends Millennials should be paying attention to.👉 For specific investment questions or advice contact Joel @ Gold Investment Management.📈📊Market Update💵📉Quick recap from Charlies Bilello - 10 chart SaturdayThe week after the 4th of July is always seasonally strong for stocks.This year was not any different.All major stock indexes gained ground. The Nasdaq 100 rallied to its 50-day moving average. The worst-hit groups in the past year and a half went up the most:biotech,cloud,software,and IPOs.What’s more interesting about last week’s price action is that the strength in so many high P/E and high P/S companies came in the face of rising interest rates and an increasingly hawkish fed / bank of Canada.Rising interest rates have been a tailwind for oil & gas stocks and a headwind for tech in the most recent past. The next week or two will tell us if the correlations have changed as Treasuries have been a leading indicator.There are not many stocks trading near their 52-week highs.Two main groups are standing out so far – biotech like HALO, HRMY, CORT, UTHR, VRTX, VIVO and defensive stocks like pharmaceuticals LLY, MRK; health care plans like HUM, CI; consumer staples like GIS, DG, DLTR and PEP. Most of the latter are low-growth, slow movers. There are only a handful of high-growth names that are setting up – SWAV, LNTH, CELH, FNKO. The solar industry certainly stood out as a group last week with notable breakouts in ENPH, SEDG, JKS, and DQ.Do with this change as you will but I think it tells a transition in the catalyst story.The market is now chopping as it works out whether inflation, recession or both are going to be the result of this tightening cycle.The Car Industry Is About To Change Forevertighter secondary marketsbetter shopping experience for customersmore predictable earnings for analysts and investors and…zero marginal revenue cost attributable to the companies bottom line💸Reformed Millennials - Post of The WeekWhy do we get booms and busts in risk capital? What has happened over the last 6 months?I ALWAYS LEARN SOMETHING NEW WHEN I TUNE IN FOR PROF DAMODARAN.In this 23 min lesson, he presented relevant historical evidence, which investors with different investment philosophies can use.For value investors, keeping in mind that history doesn't have to repeat and the long-term horizon doesn't have to yield profit, a long recovery is more beneficial to start building up your stake in some big names, which were punished badly.For growth investors, he talks at length about "going where it's darkest". But the most difficult task is to figure out the story or sustainability of some business models and avoid the "value traps".🐦 Twitter Thread of The Week 🐦"Two holes. That’s the symbol for the face, enough to evoke it without representing it. But isn’t it strange that it can be done through such simple means? Whatever is most abstract may perhaps be the summit of reality.” - Pablo PicassoBelow are the 1st, 4th and last stone print. The bull progresses from: a realistic drawing to a deconstructed image w/ the famous "abstract" style to lines outlining a shape Through 11 iterations, Picasso simplified the image until it captured the "essence" of the bull.🔮Best Links of The Week🔮Some Thoughts On Twitter - Fred WilsonStay out of the rabbit holes - Josh BrownAggregation Theory for Spotify & Netflix - Ben ThompsonWhat you should buy in a bear market - Ben CarlsonLast year, senior members of Freshii — including founder Matthew Corrin — quietly began testing a software called “Percy,” a video-calling device attached to cash registers at select franchise locations. - Toronto Star This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.reformedmillennials.com
Listen in podcast appIn this week's episode of Reformed Millennials, Joel and Cam talk the cultural relevance of TikTok, Canadian fiscal/monetary tightening and the collapse of commodities.- The everything recession- Canadian Housing Crisis Looms large- Who to blame for oil prices?- TikTok is just a platform. But it’s damn good.- Jokic gets 256mm and why pro players need to take to equity instead of sponsorship cashThe links at the bottom of the newsletter are fantastic this week.It’s a long-term game. Stay the course.Listen on Apple, Spotify, or Google Podcasts.If you aren’t in the Reformed Millennials Facebook Group join us for daily updates, discussions, and deep dives into the investable trends Millennials should be paying attention to.👉 For specific investment questions or advice contact Joel @ Gold Investment Management.📈📊Market Update💵📉Hello July.Good riddance to the first half of 2022.It was the worst first half of the year for the S&P since 1970.If we judge by the most constructive charts currently, we can say that the market is pricing a potential recession at some point this year. Look at what is setting up near the 52-week highs list: consumer staples like General Mills (GIS), Dollar General (DG), Post Holdings (POST), Campbel Soup (CPB); auto parts chain Autozone (AZO); online education Stride (LRN); health insurance Humana (HUM); big pharma Merk (MRK) and Eli Lilly (LLY), etc. These are not the type of stocks that lead at the beginning of a sustainable bull run. Biotech is another group showing relative strength over the last few weeks. XBI topped in February of 2021 and it fell 65% in the following 15 months. You have to go all the way to 2000-2002 to see so much destruction in so little time in a sector. The most recent drop overshadows even the Great Recession of 2007-2008. Over the past few weeks, XBI went up above its 20 and 50 dma and successfully bounced off them. It’s a bear market rally but those can be furious.Chinese stocks have been in the doghouse for a long time. The Chinese Tech ETF – KWEB topped in February of 2021 and then it fell 80% in the following 13 months. KWEB seemed to have bottomed in March of 2022 (as of right now) and since then it has made several higher lows, slowly establishing itself above its rising 20 and 50-day moving averages. KWEB is still below its 200-day moving average and the recent push higher can be considered just a bear market rally. And yet, quite a few Chinese ADRs have been acting constructively as of late: breaking out, bouncing off their rising 20-day moving averages.In the meantime, Micron missed earnings and gave a huge cut in guidance bringing down the entire semiconductor index with it. SMH closed at new 52-week lows on Friday – another sign that the market is currently more worried about a recession than inflation and supply chain constraints. The market is not always correct but it’s rarely a good idea to argue with it.MACRO: charts curtesy of all star chartsThe Euro represents almost 60% of the US Dollar Index.So if the Euro is collapsing to new 20-year lows relative to Dollars, that Index is going higher.And this is not a situation where it's just the Euro weakness that's driving things.Both Japanese Yen and British Pounds continue to remain weak.I think it will be very difficult for investors to make money from the long side of stocks or crypto this summer if the US Dollar is breaking out to new highs.A weak Euro breaking down here isn't helping the case for a bottom in stocks.A move lower in Euro would most likely mean a strong leg lower for stocks and crypto.If you're a stock market investor, either in the U.S. or around the world, I think what's happening in the US Dollar needs to be front and center.I say this because during this entire consolidation since 2016, we've seen a very strong negative correlation with stocks.Look at that first Dollar peak in late 2016 - stocks ripped from there. Then look at the next peak in 2020 - stocks ripped from there again.But during this period, when the Dollar wasn't weak, and was strong, like the past year or so, stocks have been under pressure.So I've said it before and I'll say it again. I think we're going to need to see a weak Dollar if we stand to make any sort of real money from the long side this summer.If this is a real breakout in the US Dollar and it's about to make a run towards 120, I don't believe stocks will do well in that environment.Correlations are constantly changing. And this one just might soon. But it hasn't.So we're watching the Dollar here for color on the next direction for stocks.💸Reformed Millennials - Post of The WeekThis article from Untying The Gordian Knot should help those trying to figure out where we are in the economic cycle and when might be a good time to start entering semis.“Dr. Copper has the moniker of the global economy's health as the essential metal used in almost every fixed asset investment (FAI) and manufacturing. It remains vital, although I think Nickel is now equally important in our modern-day lives as it is used in alloying, coatings, and batteries. Iron ore is significant for China's FAI and much more critical than copper in its growth.US Tech sector is 9.3% of the economy and ~ 27-28% of the S&P 500. If one sector is economically essential and broader stock market returns, it is the technology and, more specifically, the Semiconductor sub-sector.Semis has the advantage of having economic data tied to it as well as stocks and indices. What happens in Semis happens in the economy and translates to stock performance almost immediately.”🇨🇦 Important Canadian News From the Week 🇨🇦Canadian HELOC rules set to change.The change will make it so that once the loan's value exceeds 65 per cent of the home, the loan "will operate more like a traditional mortgage where the borrower makes principal and interest payments until the [loan gets back below] 65 per cent," an official told CBC News at a technical briefing.The new rules won't be in force until late 2023, but OSFI says that as things stand now, data from the Bank of Canada suggests there's $200 billion worth of HELOC that is currently outside of that 65 per cent threshold. That's out of $1.8 trillion of total housing debt.🐦 Twitter Thread of The Week 🐦My notes from the thread:Gary Gensler steadfast in opposition to certain policy decisions that Bitcoin enthusiasts have been pushing for. Until the Tether issue is dealt with, Bitcoin exchanges around the world firm up KYC/AML, and the crypto universe submits to regulatory authority, Gensler will never approve a spot Bitcoin ETF🔮Best Links of The Week🔮TikTok is ramping up its ad business, which so far has not been nearly as large as its reach would suggest, but plans to hit $12bn this year. - BloombergWealth vs. Getting Wealthier - by Morgan HouselBill Gurley’s ‘Runnin' Down a Dream’ Presentation - YoutubeIn Defense of Dollar Cost Averaging - Nick MaggiulliRisk Capital and Markets: A Temporary Retreat or Long Term Pull Back? - Musing on Markets (Aswath Damodaran) This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.reformedmillennials.com
Listen in podcast appIn this week's episode of Reformed Millennials, Joel and Cam talk Canadian Politics, the Alberta Budget Surplus and Why Taking Bitcoin as your Salary is a BAD idea.PS: The links at the bottom of the newsletter are fantastic this week.It’s a long-term game. Stay the course.Listen on Apple, Spotify, or Google Podcasts.If you aren’t in the Reformed Millennials Facebook Group join us for daily updates, discussions, and deep dives into the investable trends Millennials should be paying attention to.👉 For specific investment questions or advice contact Joel @ Gold Investment Management.📈📊Market Update💵📉Last week just 2 percent of stocks in the S&P were above 50 day moving average and that generally leads to great forward returns.The market is better at predicting the news than the news is at predicting the market. Financial markets typically look 6-9 months ahead and try to anticipate what could happen. They are currently betting that the Fed’s aggressive tightening policy is going to send the economy into recession and the Fed will have to stop hiking sooner than previously expected. As result inflation expectations are tapering and we saw a major mean reversion last week. The worst-hit groups year-to-date outperformed significantly last week ARKK went up 18%, the cloud ETF – WCLD, went up 15%, biotech XBI went up 14%. In the meantime, the best performing sector year-to-date – oil & gas (XOP), lost 6%, tested its 200-day moving average and it is now down almost 30% from its annual highs.The odds are that this is just another bear market bounce that will eventually be faded again. It is really hard to know how long it can last. The conventional wisdom says that the declining 50 and 200-day moving averages are likely to be major areas of resistance for SPY and QQQ but markets often overshoot. In the meantime, there’s nothing wrong with being nimble and playing the relief rally. If the bounce has legs, we should see more stocks setting up and offering decent risk/reward entry points. As of right now, the number of good long setups is still relatively small.But, the longer term picture continues to be a mess now that all moving averages are pointing down. It will not be medium term easy to get all these averages trending up again. Expect the unexpected.💸Reformed Millennials - Post of The WeekAlberta budget surplus in 20/21 is going be blown out of the water by 21/22.A review should show incredible royalty revenues.The rest of Canada is going to be psyched! More deficits paid for by Alberta!Canadian naturals horizon project is going to pay more than a billion into Alberta’s pockets. (Or Quebecs)GoodLawyer @ Collision:“I truly believe this is going to become Alberta’s decade.”The words spoken by Doug Schweitzer, Alberta’s minister of jobs, economy and innovation, onstage at the Alberta Innovates tech conference Inventures earlier this month.Speaking to a crowd of thousands, Schweitzer added, “You guys are on the map and you’re winning.”Being on the map is a fairly new experience for Alberta’s tech scene. Only in recent years have the maturing tech startups, increased investment capital, and provincial government buy-in led the province to become globally recognized as an emerging tech hub.Alberta tech clearly has some steam. But with the resignation of Premier Jason Kenney, and Minister Schweitzer announcing he does not plan to run for re-election, the future of the province’s tech spending may be up in the air.BetaKit spoke with stakeholders in the sector and gauged their opinion about how the political changes might affect the hard-fought relationship between Alberta tech and the provincial government.“Tenuous to say the least”continued at the link above…🐦 Twitter Thread of The Week 🐦From Michael Shellenberger:🔮Best Links of The Week🔮The Case For EVs - Fred WilsonHas the Consumer Ever Been More Prepared for a Recession? - Ben CarlsonWITH POLITICAL TURNOVER ON THE HORIZON, IS THE PARTY OVER FOR ALBERTA TECH? - BetakitInvisible Asymptotes - Eugene Wei“Proprietary Product Distribution” is Better than Sliced Bread - Tren Griffen This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.reformedmillennials.com
Listen in podcast appIn this week's episode of Reformed Millennials, Joel and Cam talk Oil Stocks, NHL revenues and SBF’s FTX buying an Alberta based company.It’s a long-term game. Stay the course.Listen on Apple, Spotify, or Google Podcasts.If you aren’t in the Reformed Millennials Facebook Group join us for daily updates, discussions, and deep dives into the investable trends Millennials should be paying attention to.👉 For specific investment questions or advice contact Joel @ Gold Investment Management.📈📊Market Update💵📉In a bear market, eventually, every sector gets under pressure. Up until last week, oil and gas stocks were enjoying one of their best years. And then, they were hit hard. The Fed raised the base interest rate by 75bps and declared that its goal is to bring down inflation to under 2%. All of a sudden, the market’s main worry was not stagflation (high inflation and very low growth) but a recession (negative growth). The oil & gas sector ETF is now down 24% from its 52-week highs. Despite the drop last week, most oil & gas stocks are still in a long-term uptrend and many might have a short-term bounce near their year-to-date volume-weighted average price.There are not many stocks left that are still above their 50 and 200-day moving averages. Lately, we have seen select Chinese ADRs and biotechs push against the mainstream weakness but overall there are just a few decent-looking long setups and none of them are really very exciting.The silver lining is that even the scariest and longest bear markets experience powerful counter-trend rallies from time to time. Market breadth has become so weak that we might be close to one. SPY is about 5-7% from major potential support near 350–340. If that level doesn’t hold, we might see a major panic selling and acceleration lower. The faster, the better. It’s always preferable to rip the bandaid quickly than to be tortured for many months by choppy down-trending price action. I am not in a rush to be aggressive on the long side.Typically, bear market bounces characterize by very high correlations, so A trader might just as well participate with an ETF like SPY, UPRO, QQQ, or TQQQ.What are your favorites from these fallen angels?💸Reformed Millennials - Post of The WeekStan Druck Interviewed By Stripe's John Collison:Notes from the interview provided by JSCC Cap - highlights mine.Companies down 60-70% w.o a notable change in fundamentals so valuations have reset).How slow the Fed was to recognize the problem (he thought they were slow in April of ‘21 yet in March ‘22 they were still buying bonds & didn’t pivot verbally until November).In his 45 years as a CIO he has never seen a combination where there is no historical precedent (e.g., 8% inflation into a weakening economy with bond yields at 3%).“I’m about to play a round of golf without a driver or 60 degree wedge”POSITIONING:He's made money over the last 6-8 mo's short fixed income & stocks, owning oil, (mistakenly) gold, & copper. Things are harder now so he’s waiting on his hands for a fat pitch, but at some point anticipates getting back to short equities & eventually USD. He still owns energy & other commodities and Ukraine has given the trade an extended life but thinks the world is short energy over the next 5-10 years due to ESG pressures which means the trade has legs.CRYPTO:Druck said you cannot build $2T in wealth/purchasing power, destroy $1T & it does not matter. He sees a high correlation between BTC & the NASDAQ & looks at it as an indicator. He said he’s sympathetic with what both Charlie Munger & Bill Miller say about Bitcoin.He thinks there's a strong overlap b/w NASDAQ risk players & BTC owners, and then curmudgeons that are gold bugs and want that world to fall apart. He said there’s no question if you believe we are going to have irresponsible monetary policy & inflation going forward if it’s in a Bull phase you want to own $BTC, but if it’s in a bear phase you want to own gold. He also said he’d be shocked if blockchain isn’t a force 5-10 years from now. His advice to a 20-year-old tech investor would be to spend as much time in that space (similar to Internet & Cloud)100% SUCCESSFUL INDICATORS:Druck highlighted two historical facts that have undefeated track records:(i) Once inflation is >5% its never come down until Fed Funds got greater than CPI(ii) Once inflation is >5% its never been tamed without a recession.He thinks the first will be violated but sees a recession highlighting the Fed has orchestrated just 2-3 soft landings historically (notably ‘94-’95) but with Fed Funds, at 75-100 bps and projections at 2-3% vs inflation at 8.6% we’re so far behind, with so much wood to chop, on the back of such a large asset bubble going into it probabilities support a hard landing.We have $1.5-$2.0T of excess savings & it may be time to work thru that, but given the asset bubble & subsequent market destruction, Ukraine, and the 0 COVID policy in China, he sees a recession in ‘23 (just doesn’t know if it's early or late).MARKET INTERNALS AS A PREDICTIVE TOOL:John asked about his ability to use market internals to predict the economy. Right now you have homebuilders down 50% on “good” fundamentals, trucking stocks down 40% on record-high earnings, and retail (which isn’t much of a leader but more leader than laggard) down w/ even once you adjust for COVID normalization.These tend to have longer lead times so don’t expect a recession tomorrow but within 6-12 months.DIVERSIFICATION:He also spoke about his philosophy of putting all his eggs in one basket, watching it closely, and developing conviction 1-4x a yearHe thinks investors get in trouble by being diversified with stale long ideas or short ideas; if he has 15-20% or in macro 200-300% of his assets in a single position, they are never stale, you need ruthless discipline, to be constantly paranoid, re-evaluating, & open-minded.Working For the Goat George Soros:His #1 lesson from Soros is sizing is 70-80% of the equation.It’s not whether you are right or wrong. It’s how much you make when you are right and how much you lose when you are wrong. As an investor he believes in streaks, so he needs to have an investment that excites him and sees himself trading well.He said the #1 piece of advice he got from his original mentor was focusing on what makes stocks move; e.g., why will people think differently in 18-24 months than they do today. Don’t invest in the present. The present doesn’t move stock prices change moves them.Imagine a different world in 18 months and where these security prices would trade given the world you envision.TECH BUBBLE EXPERIENCE:Stan gave a rundown of his famous tech bubble story (e.g., shorting $200M in March '99 losing $600M in 4 weeks & being down 18% for the first time in his life. Flipping long finishing +42% net for the year. Thinking it's a bubble selling everything putting $6B of longs on "hours away from the top" losing $2-$3B in weeks down 18% again, taking 5 months off coming back shorting, and being +40% in 4Q).Invest then Investigate:He also spoke about "invest then investigate" and how given the competitive dynamics in the business over the last 20 years with more information & people you don’t have the time you used to have when you hear a good idea. If you wait 2-3 weeks 60-70% of the move could occur maybe not a long-term move, but entry price is important & important psychologically as you add over time. You don’t have time to do a deep-dive analysis. If you have intuition you buy it & then do analysis & double down or cut it, as opposed to waiting & then doing analysis.He told the story of a Lehman analyst coming in who laid out the whole subprime thesis that by 3Q 2007 all hell will break loose, in the next 2 days Druck shorted everything in housing & was wrong for 6 months but the analysis was consistent & the deeper he dug more confident they got where are we now is as hard as ever to predict.What CB's (central banks) did globally over the last 10-11 years leaves him open-minded to something really bad.E.g., 1930s post asset bubble and horrible recession. Do they get stagflation or deflation? Japan still suffering since 1989. We could be no growth & sideways for 15-20 years like ‘66-’82, or something similar to Japan.Druck has a bearish bias but he knows that exists in him and he has to manage that always viewing the world probabilistically & changes his mind.Well worth the listen per usual as he's had the best "crystal ball" for 30+ years now in the world of macro.🐦 Twitter Thread of The Week 🐦My favorites from the thread:Beautiful Mess Effect: We tend to view our mistakes & vulnerabilities with shame because we think they make us look unappealing. But research suggests our mistakes & vulnerabilities actually make us more relatable and endearing to other people. So don't be afraid to be human.Backwards Law: The more you pursue happiness, the less likely you are to obtain it because chasing it will only remind you how much you don't have it. Ironically, the best way to find happiness is to stop worrying about it.End-of-History Illusion: We're all works-in-progress that view our current selves as our final selves. This blinds us to the possibility of our own growth. Realize your potential by remembering you are not set in stone, and you never have to be who you were five minutes ago.The Imp Of The Perverse: When you forbid someone from something, it makes them want it even more. A big reason why censorship is often ineffective; banning information only increases its appeal, leading to a Streisand Effect in which the info becomes shared even more widely.Agenda-Setting Theory: What's important doesn't become the news, the news becomes what's important. The public conversation is based on whatever's reported by the press, giving the impression that this news matters most, when really it's just what was chosen by a few editors.🎬 Video of The Week🎬Burry stresses the economy is coming to a screeching hault. Will he be right again?Joel says this is fear porn: What say you?🔮Best Links of The Week🔮Reducing Inflation Will Come at a Great Cost: Stagflation - Ray DalioAFTER HIRING FREEZE, WEALTHSIMPLE MAKES STAFF CUTS - Beta KitNHL Commissioner Gary Bettman: Thrilling On-Ice Action Is Driving League-Record Revenues - ForbesCrypto company FTX Exchange acquires Bitvo, plans to officially launch in Canada - Globe and Mail This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.reformedmillennials.com
Listen in podcast appIn this week's episode of Reformed Millennials, Joel talks with Bryan Duarte. The two talk through Canadian start up incentives and subsidies, whats important to VC’s and the opportunity that lies in Environmental innovation.Listen on Apple, Spotify, or Google Podcasts.If you aren’t in the Reformed Millennials Facebook Group join us for daily updates, discussions, and deep dives into the investable trends Millennials should be paying attention to.👉 For specific investment questions or advice contact Joel @ Gold Investment Management.Who is Bryan Duarte and whats BlackTech Capital?Bryan is a “Social Venturist” - Entrepreneur & Angel Investor who Co-Founded BlackTech Capital. He is the Founder & CEO Enliten as well as Co-Director of the GreenTech Global Impact Accelerator at Founder Institute. In addition to his impressive professional track record, Bryan is also a professional engineer making his entrance into emerging energy ventures all the more impactful.Topics:Whats a Social Venturist?Importance of social capital in Canadian markets.Government often carries the burden of solving the hardest problems for society. How do subsidies and grants make an impact in Canada specifically?How Vc’s work with accelerators in CanadaWhat kind of shape is the Canadian venture market in?When deploying capital to founders and their teams, what is most important for you and your team?Advice for clean energy foundersBryans Social Links:https://www.linkedin.com/in/duartebryan/https://twitter.com/bryan_duarte16 This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.reformedmillennials.com
Listen in podcast appIn this week's episode of Reformed Millennials, Joel and Cam talk Alberta’s Childcare plan and its impact on women’s unemployment, Political Policy changing as we move down the rungs of Maslow’s Hierarchy of needs and all things inflation.It’s a long-term game. Stay the course.Listen on Apple, Spotify, or Google Podcasts.If you aren’t in the Reformed Millennials Facebook Group join us for daily updates, discussions, and deep dives into the investable trends Millennials should be paying attention to.👉 For specific investment questions or advice contact Joel @ Gold Investment Management.📈📊Market Update💵📉Remember, inflation will come down when no one can afford to buy anything. The best cure for high prices, is high prices.After the index entered a bear market yesterday, dropping more than 20% from highs, S&P 500 futures are pointing to a relatively small rise at the open.Fed FeverTraders in the bond markets are fully prepared for the Federal Reserve to raise its benchmark rate by 75 basis points on Wednesday. While Chair Jerome Powell had vowed to increase the Fed funds rate by 50 basis points this month, a report in the Wall Street Journal suggested that policy makers were considering a bigger move after inflation accelerated in May. Meanwhile, JPMorgan Chase & Co. said there was a "non-trivial risk" of a 100-basis point increase.Bitcoin dropsLiquidity draining out of financial markets sent Bitcoin to the the lowest in about 18 months. But crypto’s trouble isn’t all external, with the freezing of withdrawals by the Celsius lending platform adding to concern that systemic risk in the crypto ecosystem will accelerate the digital-asset market meltdown. Meanwhile, MicroStrategy Inc. may need to post additional collateral for a loan as Bitcoin tests a key price range flagged by the company last month.10yr 3.3%U.S. 2-year yields spiked the most since 2008FOMC decision is tomorrowPowell has communicated a 50 bps increase but don’t be surprised if its 75JPMorgan said “non-trivial risk” of a 100-basis point increaseI think the street is now at 75 bpsCrude 122Oil YTD +62%Biden to visit Saudi Arabia in July 13-16Can he convince Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS) to increase production?DisneyDisney won the local TV broadcast rights to India’s Premier League cricket matches5 year deal worth ~$3 billionViacom won the streaming rights worth $2.6 billionStreaming rights would have gone on Disney+ Hotstar in 2024Disney CEO has said that the cricket matches are “not critical” to achieving its 2024 subscriber targets.TwitterElon Musk is to attend an all-hands meeting with Twitter employees on ThursdayGood sign Elon wants the deal but at a lower priceContinental ResourcesShale oil billionaire offers to take Continental private$4.3 billion, $70 all-cash offer, 8.5% premiumEarningsOracle +12%, 10% organic revenue growthCRYPTOMajor crypto lender Celsius froze withdrawals, swaps, and transfers yesterday due to “extreme market conditions”Here’s Celsius CEO Alex Mashinsky 2 days before:The Celsius freezer helped spark a massive sell-off with major cryptocurrencies declining 15% on averageTotal liquidations totaled over $1BHere’s a look at the spike in Bitcoin liquidations:Bitcoin held long-term support around in the $20-22k range:💸Reformed Millennials - Post of The WeekMany companies are now facing a Hobson’s choice between trying to maintain the high-flying valuation they’ve established over the last year — no matter the contortions necessary to do it — or conducting a “down round,” a financing that results in a lower valuation. And industry experts suggest the latter often makes more sense.Brad Feld, who has been a venture capitalist for more than 25 years, is among those who advocate for embracing the down round in cases where a company needs capital and hasn’t yet grown into a previously established valuation. Feld says that he has participated in financing rounds for startups so married to a particular number that they’ve agreed to anything to maintain it. He has also participated in deals where the company and its board agreed to bite the bullet and readjust the company’s valuation downward.Based on both experiences, he says his “strong belief” that “just doing a clean resetting — at whatever the valuation so that everybody is aligned and dealing with reality — is much, much better for a company.”He’s not alone. “As a young investor in the early 2000s, I ended up spending a lot of time restructuring cap tables” after the dot com bust, says Frederic Court, founder of the early-stage firm Felix Capital in London. Court says he learned then that “trying to readjust things or maintain an artificially inflated price through structure is a recipe for disaster.”Maslow’s and its impact on political policy and market direction.Maslow's hierarchy of needs is a theory of motivation which states that five categories of human needs dictate an individual's behaviour.Those needs are physiological needs, safety needs, love and belonging needs, esteem needs, and self-actualization needs.🐦 Twitter Thread of The Week 🐦BITCOIN IS DEAD! - from my most trusted name in Crypto, Ari Paul of BlockTower Capital🎬 Video of The Week🎬🔮Best Links of The Week🔮🥵 Over 100m Americans urged to stay indoors over extreme heat and humidity💊 FDA approves historic alopecia treatment🛑 Ford issues stop-sale of electric Mustang Mach-E crossovers due to potential safety defectAs the world tightens, China prepares to ease - China Last Night This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.reformedmillennials.com
Listen in podcast appIn this week's episode of Reformed Millennials, Joel and Cam talk Apple’s developer day, Canadian Tax Tricks, and how the Saudis plan to take over Sports.It’s a long-term game. Stay the course.Listen on Apple, Spotify, or Google Podcasts.If you aren’t in the Reformed Millennials Facebook Group join us for daily updates, discussions, and deep dives into the investable trends Millennials should be paying attention to.👉 For specific investment questions or advice contact Joel @ Gold Investment Management.📈📊Market Update💵📉When you take a position, you are going one way or the other against consensus.So here is where consensus/market pricing is:10%+ earnings growth & real GDP growth above trend in ‘22-23US real yields around 0% to be “tight” enough to bring inflation quickly down to 2.5%And for the longer term:Inflation expectations pretty well anchored around 2.25%Fed Funds and ECB terminal rates at 3% and 1.75%3-5y Crude Oil contracts at $70 or soThis is always good to bear in mind when taking a position.A stronger US Dollar and higher interest rates are not a good thing for the average stock.To us, it continues to be about that. Investors NEED a weaker Dollar if they plan on making money this summer being long growth stocks or crypto. This is not a "want", this is an absolute need.So this is it. Dollars and Rates.One thing that has stood out was the cyclical nature of Semiconductors continuing to show itself. Look at the relative strength compared to the more growthy Software sector.💸Reformed Millennials - Post of The WeekApple developer day ushered in new OS for their watch, iPad, mac and iPhone.But the most important release was their car play OS.“Next-generation Apple CarPlay will be a whole car OS, taking over every screen and even controlling gauges and climate-control functions. The first cars to use the new CarPlay will be announced in late 2023, with nearly a dozen automakers already on board.”If Apple succeeds in this endeavour, it will eat the entire value chain in automotive.OEMs would be reduced to commodity assemblers like Compaq and Dell were to Microsoft in the PC era.It’s kind of a brilliant move.The question is, who will be dumb enough to let them do it? Seems like they have a good chance at winning a lot of OEMs over. CarPlay 1 was the trojan horse.This has been a long time comingMore hereELON and His War On Work From Home:Some clarity:🐦 Twitter Thread of The Week 🐦US Regulation Comes For Crypto:🎬 Video of The Week🎬Mr. Beast Consistently Showing How to Scale Content🔮Best Links of The Week🔮Marques Brownlee - WWDC 2022 Impressions: M2 Macs and iOS 16?!Housing Wire Daily (Spotify) - Reverse Mortgages are hot hot hotEzra Klein @ New York Times - Dont Let Climate Change Stop You From Having KidsRBC Thought Leadership - Canadas Housing Markets Rebalancing FastRate hikes risk sending housing into tailspin: Capital Economics @ BNN This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.reformedmillennials.com
Listen in podcast appIn this week's episode of Reformed Millennials, Joel and Cam talk Markets, the destruction of the millennial subsidy, lunch inflation, and why Tom Cruise is the greatest actor to ever live.It’s a long-term game. Stay the course.Listen on Apple, Spotify, or Google Podcasts.If you aren’t in the Reformed Millennials Facebook Group join us for daily updates, discussions, and deep dives into the investable trends Millennials should be paying attention to.👉 For specific investment questions or advice contact Joel @ Gold Investment Management.📈📊Market Update💵📉Before stocks can start to go up, they need to stop going down.That's step one.The next step would be a series of higher lows. Mathematically, in order for that to take place, a stock would need to avoid making a new low.When enough stocks stop making new lows, and put in the first higher low, that's when the market at the index level can stop falling.We refer to that as an exhaustion of sellers.Over the past few weeks, with new lows in major indexes across the board, we only saw a fraction of individual stocks making new lows, compared to before.Now we're looking for an expansion of new highs to support the thesis that perhaps we should be spending more time looking for stocks to buy than time looking for stocks to sell.With areas like Small-caps, Chinese Internet, IPO Index and Biotechs putting in higher lows, it's a good time to look even further out on the risk curve.I feel these charts are a good representation of exactly that. The direction of these resolutions will tell us a lot about any risk appetite there is out there for these types of risk assets:From All star charts:💸Reformed Millennials - Post of The WeekTHE CURRENT EARNINGS SEASON IS COMING TO A CONCLUSION. THE LATEST THEMES:The resetting of expectations continues with full force, especially in the tech sector. Companies are either missing estimates, guiding lower, or both. The silver lining is they have managed to lower the market expectations so it’ll be easier to surprise in the future.The impact of Inflation is not distributed evenly as of now. While Walmart and Target said that costs have gone up more than expected and their customers have changed their purchasing habits due to higher inflation, Nordstrom and Williams-Sonoma pointed out that their clients are not having those issues yet. It only makes sense. Higher inflation typically hits first people with less income.The most heavily shorted stocks are missing estimates, gapping lower, and then squeezing higher. We saw that in companies from various sectors – USPS, DKS, BROS, etc.This is a normal part of the market structure. Every share that has ever been sold short will have to be bought back at some point. High short interest can be a source of solid future demand.In the meantime, anything related to energy continues to be among the price leaders. Oil & gas stocks went up about 20% across the board last week as natural gas hit 12-year highs. Lithium stocks have also been on fire as it is needed in the clean-energy space – LTHM, ALB, LAC, SQM.As for other thoughts and charts from people smarter than me: (charts 1 & 2)JC says don’t be short if the S&P is above 4,100 which it closed on Friday.Technical wiz Jon Krinsky pointed out that China's internet may be bottoming: (1)And energy seasonals generally peak around here (my interpretation is trying not to chase energy.🐦 Twitter Thread of The Week 🐦Money rules from Danny.My favorite - Never let money interfere with relationships🎬 Video of The Week🎬From the All-In Summit in Miami - FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver on how gamblers think.🔮Best Links of The Week🔮Financial Times - Allan Lanthier: The small-business tax mess — Ottawa should start over from scratchAll-In Podcast - Glenn Greenwald & Matt Taibbi discuss the new political divide, moderated by David SacksWait But Why? - The Big and The SmallTech Crunch - Affirm teams up with Stripe as the BNPL wars intensify This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.reformedmillennials.com
Listen in podcast appIn this week's episode of Reformed Millennials, Joel and Cam talk highest paid athletes, the durability of the Canadian economy, and the process of how the stock market bottoms. Remember, the stock market has doubled your money every ten years for the last 100 years (on average). It has done this with: Recessions. Depressions. World Wars. Crashes. It’s a long-term game. Stay the course.Listen on Apple, Spotify, or Google Podcasts.If you aren’t in the Reformed Millennials Facebook Group join us for daily updates, discussions, and deep dives into the investable trends Millennials should be paying attention to.👉 For specific investment questions or advice contact Joel @ Gold Investment Management.📈📊Market Update💵📉The fed and central banks are choosing to put the patient in a coma right now.Market always bottoms before the recessions appear.New home sales -16.6% vs -1.7% estUsed car sales are significantly lower.Shipping costs down biglyCongrats to the fed? Well doneThe biggest mistake we can make as investors is to anchor ourselves to prices we saw over the last 18 months.We have a new world order.We have to invest for a new rate environment. CPI is a backward looking indicator. Used cars, airline tickets, and shipping costsThe counter factual above wont show itself for another 3-5 months.That bear market bounce didn’t last long. SPY and QQQ rallied to their previous low where they found resistance. Then, they continued down and finished at new 52-week lows. The silver lining is that many stocks and ETFs did not make new 52-week lows alongside the indexes which is a bullish breadth divergence. This is not a reason to buy blindly; just a signal that selling is starting to weaken.In a bear market, eventually, all stocks get hit. We saw a glimpse of that last week when even consumer staples like Costco went down more than 15% on weak earnings reports from competitors Walmart and Target. Everyone’s favorite Big-Tech stocks have also been under heavy pressure as they have become a source of liquidity for many – AAPL, GOOGL, MSFT, AMZN, NVDA, and TSLA are down 25-50% from their 52-week highs.The issue with prolonged downtrends is that they can become self-fulfilling prophecies to a certain degree. Companies without a positive cash flow have to raise more money to survive which means diluting current shareholders. Younger tech companies that compete for talent with Big Tech, have to give their employees more stocks and options to keep them from leaving – which means again diluting current shareholders. In a way, lower prices bring more supply from both the companies and shareholders who want out. This is why most rips don’t last long during downtrends. There’s too much overhead supply.The good news is that the market is cyclical and no trend lasts forever. Out of every bear market and economic situation, there is always a new set of winners that will set up and go on to make 5-100x returns. This one won’t be any different.In the meantime, it pays to remain nimble (focused on really short-term trades) and with a high cash position.Here’s how I think the three stages of a market bottom are formed:Stage 1 – Bullish breadth divergences – the main indexes will make new 52-week lows but many stocks and ETFs won’t. This is not a reason to buy. Just a sign and selling might be getting weaker.Stage 2 – Heavy-volume wide-spread buying – the majority of stocks and main indexes go up 5-10%+ on 3-5x their average daily volume.Stage 3 – More and more long setups start to show up and breakouts are following through. If this does not happen, Stage 2 is likely to be just a bear market bounce and new lows are likely to follow.💸Reformed Millennials - Post of The WeekHow bad is it out there right now in the markets?The summer of road travel that Americans love is at hand at gasoline prices are the highest EVER:If next week is down for $QQQ it would be the 8th in a row and would tie 2001 and 2008 as a couple of notorious tech bear markets:I liked this data set from Ryan Detrick that shows what has happened one year out after SIX down weeks in the S&P which we are having right now:You will notice that the two worst events from this data set were 2000 and 2008 so if we are to have an outlier year like those we should be prepared for at least another 30 percent drop in the indexes.When you’re in hell, keep going.How Big Is Berkshire Hathaway?To give a sense of how big Berkshire Hathaway and Warren Buffett are, they own:5% of Apple12% of Bank of America20% of American Express8% of Chevron9% of Coca Cola24% of Occidental26% of KraftHeinz13% of Moody's11% of Hewlett Packard11% of Paramount8% of ActivisionWarren Buffett's portfolio at Berkshire Hathaway generates almost $5.30 billion dollars in annual dividends...🐦 Twitter Thread of The Week 🐦The Kelly Criterion:Dall-E 2🔮Best Links of The Week🔮Energy at the End of the World - Peter ZeihanSiriusXM buy’s Conan O’Brien’s Team Coco Podcast company for $150 millionESG is a scam? or does it just need to be changed? - Matt LevineInterest expenses eat into business profits - Thomas ChuaThe 50 Highest-Paid Athletes Made Nearly $3 Billion; Here’s A Breakdown Of The Numbers - from ForbesKen Griffen Interview with Bloomberg - here and hereAll In Summit Interviews - here This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.reformedmillennials.com
Listen in podcast appIn this week's episode of Reformed Millennials, Joel introduces his new co-host who dives into markets, the F1 Race in Miami, the impact of playoffs on cities and whether or Uber will ever make as much money as Yellow Cab.Listen on Apple, Spotify, or Google Podcasts.If you aren’t in the Reformed Millennials Facebook Group join us for daily updates, discussions, and deep dives into the investable trends Millennials should be paying attention to.👉 For specific investment questions or advice contact Joel @ Gold Investment Management.📈📊Market Update💵📉This weeks market update is long but brought to you by a fantastic Gavin Baker tweet storm.First, a break down from Joel and then an explanation from Gavin on why today ISN’T the 2000 dot com bust.One of the major characteristics of bear markets is very high correlations between stocks regardless of their current or expected fundamentals. We saw that last week when in the first half most stocks sold off together and in the second half they rallied together.During market corrections, some religiously look for stocks that show relative strength. The premise is simple – if a stock tries to break out to a new 52-week high while the general market is selling off, it is likely to be a future momentum leader.Keep a watch list of growth stocks that hold well and even try to make new highs when the market is in a correction but keep in mind that those growth stocks are not very likely to make big sustained moves until the market starts to climb.We are in the midst of a bear market bounce. It could last only a few days or a few weeks. Any such climb would be classically defined as a climb of the “wall of worry”. After a few months of selling, most market participants are not thinking about buying dips blindly and are not trusting the rallies. It will take a long time for this sentiment to change which means that excessive volatility and frequent reversals are still here to stay for the time being.FROM GAVIN BAKER: This is nothing like 2000. Valuations for tech peaked in 2020. At the 2020 peak on a cap weighted basis, the 10 largest tech companies in the Nasdaq traded at a 44% discount to the largest tech companies at the 2000 peak using NTM EPS and 58% discount using LTM EPS.We are 21 months post peak valuation in 2020 and today’s multiples for the 10 largest tech companies on a cap weighted basis are 67% below the 2000 peak valuations on a NTM basis and 79% below on a LTM basis.There is an even bigger divergence in actual business performance. TTM EPS for the 10 largest tech co’s *declined* 73% in the 21 months post peak valuation. TTM EPS for the 10 largest tech co’s today has *grown* 71% since peak valuations 21 months ago.Because of this growth, today’s 10 largest tech stocks are significantly *cheaper* today, 21 months post peak valuation than the year 2000 stocks 21 months post their peak valuation despite the year 2000 stocks having declined 80%ish at this point past peak.Valuation multiples for the top 10 have compressed 40% in the 21 months since the 2020 peak, which is *more* than the 31% compression in the 21 months post the 2000 peak. Simultaneous multiple compression and fundamental EPS implosion was what killed tech in 2000.To approximate a year 2000 style meltdown, EPS for the 10 largest tech companies would have to decline 73%. This is not going to happen.A 73% decline in EPS is not going to happen even in a severe recession given how many of today’s tech companies have either entirely or partly recurring revenues. And for software, Covid showed that a “software contract is better than first lien debt.”So much of the revenue for 2000 tech companies was “capex” for their customers that could easily be turned off or deferred. Revenue for many of today’s large cap tech companies is open for their customers and their customers go out of business if they defer payment.Am going to run the exact numbers but likely only 5-15% of revenue for the 10 companies from 2000 was recurring given the dominance of hardware and upfront software license revenue. This number is *much* higher for today’s companies so EPS will be much more resilient.Yes, internet advertising would shrink in a recession, but only slightly given any recession is likely to be one with *positive* nominal GDP growth and internet advertising is a nominal good. It simply is pricing. Even better than pricing power.Y2K multiples would’ve taken the Nasdaq to a peak over 30,000. Instead it peaked at 16,000. This is nothing like the year 2000 in terms of either valuations or bottoms up fundamentals.Top down macro fundamentals are worse from an inflation perspective today and may end up worse from a rates perspective. But valuations are super low given these companies growth rates, margins and ROICs both cross-sectionally and relative to their own longitudinal history.We will see which ends being most important over the next 1, 3 and 5 years. Time will tell. But this is *nothing* like the year 2000 in any measurable, quantitative way for large cap public equities.Maybe, the software companies that engaged in wildly irresponsible fund raising at multiple well over 100x ARR are comparable in some ways. Some SPACs for sure. Reminder that no one is more at risk from high valuations than founders and employees. Sad but true.But those software companies almost all have revenue, proven, repeatable business models and likely survive. The comparable companies in Y2K didn’t even have revenue. Or business models. They were essentially PowerPoint presentations (like some 2020 SPACs).And I promise, for every large cap that anyone wants added to the 2020 comps, I can find a much more expensive large cap from 2000 that was growing slower with a lower ROIC and a more vulnerable business model.And the same goes for SMID caps. I can beat any ridiculous example someone cares to provide from 2020 with multiple even more ridiculous companies from 2000.💸Reformed Millennials - Post of The WeekDefault AliveDavid Sachs, ex-COO of Paypal and GP of Craft has an excellent recession playbook for entrepreneurs and investors that I watched on Saturday.I learned A LOT.SOME OF MY NOTES:Public markets lead VC marketsMultiples in public markets are a benchmark for investors funding ideas in the public markets.Public markets SAAS has seen multiples contract from 15X down to 5.5X NTM RevenuesThe economy has a lot of uncertainty which is leading to frozen capital marketsTiger Global has worked through 65% of its 18B investment fund.Looking at 2/3 capital deployment reduction in the second half of 2022Revenue for marketplaces should be gross margins/net revenue and not GMVCAC payback is incredibly important.HOW DOES THIS COMING RECESSION COMP TO RECESSIONS OF THE PAST:Dot Com Crash 2000-2002 ~ 2-3 yrsGreat recession 08/09 ~1.5 yearsFOR INVESTORS, THEIR FUNDRAISING BAR IS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER:The great company features 300% revenue growth, 70% gross margins, Net dollar retention of 140%, CAC payback 6-12months, Burn multiple is 1 or lessThe good company features 200+% revenue growth annually, 50% gross margins, Net dollar retention of 120%, 12-18 month CAC payback, and a burn multiple of 1-1.5Bad - un 200% revenue growth, under 20% gross margins, net dollar retention under 100%, CAC payback under 24 months, and a burn multiple over 2Burn multiple = Net burn / Net new ARR (the lower the multiple, the more efficient it is.)extend the runway to 30 months if possible (how much money do you have to run the company)Current A-C rounds are raising at 20 X ARROPERATIONS:immediate layoffs if you’re burn multiple is 2 or lessfreeze spending at a bare minimumfocus on your CAC payback and improves margins more than Net Dollar retentionearlier the stages of your startup, the more you can justify product development and R&D spendThe best time to build a business is in a recession. Other than fundraising, everything is more manageable. Advertising is cheaper, employees are cheaper, and of higher quality during tough times, it's a great time to course-correct and find your "product-market fit".🐦 Twitter Thread of The Week 🐦F1 Twitter Thread from Pomp:My boy Anas explaining inflation with an Arabic POV:🔮Best Links of The Week🔮🛢️ U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve drops to lowest level since 1987 😅 Twitter’s CEO and Elon Musk are beefing over bot counts🌱 India open to exporting wheat to needy nations despite ban🛡️ Carlyle to buy U.S. defense contractor ManTech for $3.9 billion ⛔ Sweden’s plans for NATO membership hit snag as Turkey says no₿ $3 billion in bitcoin was sold in an attempt to save UST stablecoin This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.reformedmillennials.com
Listen in podcast appIn this week's episode of Reformed Millennials, Joel talks about the opportunity found in recession, his favorite investment ideas as the fed normalizes and the TikTok Top.Listen on Apple, Spotify, or Google Podcasts.If you aren’t in the Reformed Millennials Facebook Group join us for daily updates, discussions, and deep dives into the investable trends Millennials should be paying attention to.👉 For specific investment questions or advice contact Joel @ Gold Investment Management.📈📊Market Update💵📉Some thoughts on crypto:From a mathematical perspective, rising interst rates have a greater effect on assets that are likely to generate most of their cash flows a long, long time from now. Like "disruptive innovation" stonks.It can be even worse for assets that will never produce any cash flows, ever.I'm not sure how many casual investors understand why this is. Best explanation w/o using math is "bird in the hand is worth two in the bush" analogy but the math is hardly complex.It is logical for tech stocks years away from +FCF to get hammered in a rising rate environment.It's the same reason longer duration fixed income securities fall more in rising rate environments and why long zero-coupon bonds fall most of all.The basic principles of investing are not complex but essential to understand or people get bewildered by very obvious things.For assets that will never generate CF you cannot produce valuations using discounted CF models. This is true for gold as well as crypto assets. Gold, however, has nonetheless had value to humans for thousands of years. Crypto? Not even ten years of mainstream consciousness.So crypto, for a very long time to come, must be viewed as a speculative risk asset, not a safe haven store of value. When rates rise, there is more of an opportunity cost to holding crypto which will logically have a negative effect on price. The idea that crypto can be useful as a safe haven in a rising rate environment is ludicrous to me.Unlike Buffett (or Munger even more so), I will not say definitively that BTC will go to zero. I don't know. But I know the opportunity cost of holding it increases as rates rise. I have tremendous admiration for Charlie Munger, but he was visibly angry when discussing Bitcoin this year. He considers it not only worthless (quite possible) but immoral because it threatens central banks. And that's a viewpoint that I don't agree with.Theory Of ReflexivityCorporeal knowledge aka “Listen to your gut” When so-called "rationalists" shirk their emotions as silly, they're usually being... silly. Emotions are not data-free. In fact they contain A TON of data. People need to understand the difference between endogenous & exogenous variables. Exogenous variables are explicitly modeled; they're "known knowns" and "known unknowns." But no modeler/trader really knows the weight of "unknown unknowns." Just because you didn't include a variable into your model, doesn't mean it doesn't exist. Emotions are a soup of endogenous variables.The only truth is that nothing stays true. Soros refers to any moment in time as a “cut” of reality. What are the prevailing assumptions? The flaws of popular thot? W/o knowing the flaws, how do you know when to take profit? aka when a "truth" inflects into "non-truth"How to spot a false trend? Analyze assumptions to determine if they’re true or not. Identify which drivers on each assumption are most prone to flip-flop at any moment. Evaluate how feedback loops form and affect the fundamental reality (i.e. reflexivity + random walk)Don’t busy-work when there’s nothing to work on. I asked an earlier question, "where does retail have an advantage over fund managers?" Some of you said "retail can stay out of the market when there's no good opportunities."Understand the boom-bust cycle. The archetypal boom-bust has 7 stages:5.1 "Lull period": prevailing bias is present, but a trend is not yet recognized.5.2 "Acceleration period": trend is recognized & reinforced by the prevailing bias.5.3 "Testing period": prices suffer a setback. If the bias and the trend hold, prices emerge stronger than before and become more exaggerated.5.4 "Spiritual inflection": moment of truth when reality can no longer sustain the exaggerated price expectations.5.5 "Twilight period": ppl continue to play the game, but they no longer believe in it. They hope to be bailed out by greater fools.5.6 "Market inflection": Trend goes belly up. Even the last fools give up hope.5.7 Crash.To maximize risk-reward, get in at 5.2 or 5.3. Acceleration/testing periods are the Balmer's peak. Getting in at 5.1 is 99% luck. Anyone who says otherwise is hindsight 20-20'ing. Soros initiates positions with tiny trades to test hypotheses. If things go smooth, he goes big.To spot new trends/ideas look for “experimental economics” What's that? “the accumulated drawbacks of specific imposed economic models simply provide a playground for financial market speculators”.💸Reformed Millennials - Post of The WeekSo many headwinds and so little hope. If you are in hell, keep going. Hell is not a good place to stop.As of the close on Monday the S&P 500 is now down almost 17% from all-time highs.The Nasdaq 100 and Russell 2000 are both already well past 20%.Bear markets are normal.They can be painful.The reasons are always different but the emotions are the same.No one knows how long they will last.They do come to an end eventually.The length of the current iteration probably depends on how long inflation stays elevated, how resolute the Fed and Bank of Canada are with tighter monetary policy and if these two factors combine to throw us into a recession.Things could surely get worse before they get better or this could all end with one sentence from Jerome Powell if he decides to tap out. The bottom will look obvious in hindsight but, as always, predicting these things in real-time is not easy.Historical comparisons cannot provide the blueprint for the present situation but they can help put things into perspective in terms of the length and duration of past bear markets.Here’s a look at every bear market for the S&P 500 going back to 1950 that shows the drawdown, peak-to-trough number of days they lasted, and how long it took for the S&P to reclaim previous levels:Over 15 bear markets, the average downturn is a loss of 30%, lasting just under a year to reach the bottom and taking a little more than one-and-a-half years to break even.The last three bear markets have all been relatively short-lived. Eight out of the 15 bear markets broke even in under a year. The worst-case scenario is the 1973-1974, 2000-2002 and 2007-2009 crashes which all took more than four years to recover.I’m not sure how this one will play out.Every time stocks fall a little it feels like they could fall a lot. Every time stocks go into a correction, it feels like they could go into a bear market. And every time stocks go into a bear market, it feels like they could tailspin into an all-out crash.The bad thing about bear markets is you never know how bad they’re going to get because we human beings can panic under duress.The good thing about bear markets is they come to an end and offer the opportunity to buy at lower prices.Successfully navigating a bear market requires patience and a good handle on your emotions and time horizon.Best Tweets From The PodcastDan Rose ThreadTikTok Has Peaked🔮Best Links of The Week🔮👎 Tech giants lost more than $1 trillion in value in the last three trading days🎵 Kendrick Lamar’s ‘The Heart Part 5’ video deepfakes Kanye, Kobe, and more Uber CEO tells staff company will cut down on costs, treat hiring as a ‘privilege’TIKTOK IPO - Rumors swirlFashion and NFTs - NFTs are not having a great week in the markets, but the fashion industry (which knows a lot about selling things with no tangible value for lots of money) remains interested. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.reformedmillennials.com
Listen in podcast appIn this week's episode of Reformed Millennials, Joel talks about the opportunity for Canadian Politicians as the Roe vs. Wade leak divides America, he explains why the Rolex Price collapse is a leading indicator for real estate and consumer sentiment and discusses Apple and Amazon’s earnings this past quarter.Listen on Apple, Spotify, or Google Podcasts.If you aren’t in the Reformed Millennials Facebook Group join us for daily updates, discussions, and deep dives into the investable trends Millennials should be paying attention to.👉 For specific investment questions or advice contact Joel @ Gold Investment Management.📈📊Market Update💵📉April was four weeks of relentless selling for all major indexes. Small caps Russell 2k (IWM), large caps S&P 500 (SPY), the Nasdaq Composite which includes 3,000 stocks made new year-to-date closing lows. In fact, all of the above with the exception of SPY, have fully erased their entire 2021 gains.SPY has held better thanks to the Q1 strength in basic materials, energy, and consumer staples but even those sectors have been under some pressure lately. In a bear market, eventually, they get to every sector.There are no safe places to hide. The picture is not pretty but it is not surprising either. Last week, we talked about the recent tendency of stocks (especially tech) to sell off ahead of FOMC meetings. There’s a new one scheduled for the next week – May 3rd and 4th. The big question is do we get the usual post-FOMC bounce or will this time be different?The main indexes are on the brink of breaking down and having another leg lower. If the Fed doesn’t tone down its stance on future interest rate increases, look below.The earnings season has just begun. The big theme so far is resetting expectations.Juggernauts like Google and Amazon, which everyone thought were invincible, missed estimates.Apple beat them but gave wide-range guidance citing supply chain challenges in China and the market sold it anyway.Tesla dropped 20% since its best earnings report ever as Elon Musk is raising money to fund his Twitter purchase and short-sellers have smelt blood in the water.If those major stocks can get hurt, no one is safe.💸Reformed Millennials - Post of The WeekNot All Inflation Is Equal:Since November, we've seen increasingly frightening inflation (CPI) data. And I still remain in the transitory camp.People reading this will say - HAVE YOU BEEN TO EARLS LATELY?!In response to that, I say - that not all inflation is equal and capitalism's best feature is its ability to fight inefficiencies in markets.THIS PAST WEEK WE HAVE GOTTEN DATA FROM THE 5 LARGEST COMPANIES ON EARTH.MSFTTSLAGOOGAMZNAAPLAll 5 of these companies spoke about reducing CAPEX, no longer hiring, supply constraints easing, and prices of goods collapsing.Inflation is two-sidedDemand (consumer balance sheets with too much cash)Supply (shipping, manufacturing and commodities)In the linked article here, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market strategist at LPL research makes the case for why Inflation May Be Near A Peak:https://lplresearch.com/.../three-reasons-inflation.../Why this draw down feels worse than the last one.from Michael BatnickIt’s hard to believe that the S&P 500 is down just ~13.5% from its high. It feels a lot worse.The average stock in the S&P 500 is in a 21.8% drawdown, so it’s understandable why the first number feels off. The thing is, the index is market cap-weighted, so the average decline and the index decline rarely line up.Let’s examine why it feels so much worse than average and how the S&P is holding up as well as it is.One reason this “it feels worse” dynamic is occurring is that we lost the leaders. Amazon just had its worst day since 2006. The Nasdaq just had its worst month since The Great Financial Crisis and is in a 22% drawdown.The average FANMAG stock is in the worst drawdown going back to 2013. That’s being dragged lower by Netflix’s 72% crash. But even the median is down 29%, a deep decline and certainly way worse than the 13% decline for the S&P 500.Rolex Prices Just Started Collapsing🔮Best Links of The Week🔮🤔 El Salvador’s bitcoin bond reportedly hasn’t lured a single investor🚀 SpaceX is expanding the solar farm at its South Texas launch facility🎲 DraftKings, FanDuel Battle Tribes for Control of California Sports BettingRussia's Military Strategy, and the Afya FoundationMarc Andreessen Twitter Thread on Free Speech This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.reformedmillennials.com
Listen in podcast appIn this week's episode of Reformed Millennials, Joel talks about the Canadian Real Estate Bubble, the most recent carnage in the stock market and how to deal with people who sell complexity. Listen on Apple, Spotify, or Google Podcasts.If you aren’t in the Reformed Millennials Facebook Group join us for daily updates, discussions, and deep dives into the investable trends Millennials should be paying attention to.👉 For specific investment questions or advice contact Joel @ Gold Investment Management.📈📊Market Update💵📉Correlations between stocks went up significantly in the past few days. Tech stocks are not the only ones under pressure. They have been joined by basic materials. Everything is getting sold; even the defensive sectors like consumer staples and utilities. I see two main reasons behind the recent weakness:The market is pricing in an aggressive interest rate hike. Stocks went down significantly in the two weeks ahead of the FOMC meetings earlier in the year – Jan 25-26 and March 15-16. The next meeting is May 3-4th. It seems we are seeing something identical right now. Stocks bounced after the FOMC meeting the past two times.After the Netflix earnings fiasco and lower guidance, the market is worried that other companies will report similar issues and it is pricing them in advance just in case. Remember that financial markets move based on sentiment and expectations in the short term. They often panic before they ask questions. The silver lining is that the worst might be discounted ahead and see more constructive price action after the majority of earnings reports are behind us.Keep in mind that the first half of 2008 was somewhat similar to 2022. Basic materials were strong while the rest of the market was weak. At some point, even commodity-related stocks started to break down and then the entire market accelerated lower. Pay attention when correlations go to 1.0. It’s a sign of widespread liquidation.What’s next? We are in the midst of earnings season. The next three weeks will be heavy in reporting. What I have noticed so far is that stronger than expected earnings reports are getting little to no market love – the upside gaps are smaller and they are often getting faded. See Tesla (TSLA) or United Airlines (UAL) for example. Downside earnings gaps on the other side are following through. Look at ISRG, VZ, HCA from last Friday. With the risk of saying the obvious, upside earnings gaps do a lot better during bullish markets and downside earnings gaps find better tractions during bearish markets.Some thoughts on Elon & Twitter:I think Elon owning Twitter for Elon is genius.Jeff Bezos is already tweeting conspiracy theories and the deal is not even closed yet.The last guard of business ‘titans’ bought sports teams. These teams mostly suck as businesses, because they rely so heavily on television advertising deals where the billionaire must suck up to corporations for revenue and hope the asset value appreciates…Elon who could technically buy the entire NFL if he wanted to, has his own version of a sports team. The Dallas Cowboys, the Lakers, The Red Sox and Real Madrid all in one. He should be able to tell corporations to piss off and pound sand – including banishing Jeff Bezos from Twitter to whine on his own platforms (Twitch and The Washington Post).I really doubt he opens his arms to Fat Nixon (Donald trump) because in the end, this is now Elon’s congregation and it is bad business for Elon to share the bully pulpit with another bully that could mess with his congregation.Web 2.0 is bully chess and Elon is in a checkmate position.SO WHY WASN'T THERE ANOTHER BUYER FOR TWITTER? WHY DIDN'T GOOGLE OR DISNEY PONY UP THE CASH?From the Wall Street Journal:Twitter Inc. accepted Elon Musk’s bid to take over the company and go private, a deal that would give the world’s richest person control over the social-media network where he is also among its most influential users. The $44 billion deal marks the close of a dramatic courtship and a change of heart at Twitter, where many executives and board members initially opposed Mr. Musk’s takeover approach. The deal has polarized Twitter employees, users and regulators over the power tech giants wield in determining the parameters of discourse on the internet and how those companies enforce their rules. The two sides worked through the night to hash out a deal in which Mr. Musk plans to take Twitter private in a deal that values the company at $54.20 a share.There was speculation about alternative offers for Twitter. What seems clear is that those alternative offers did not materialize, and the most obvious reason why is Twitter’s anemic cash generation.Twitter’s free cash flow from operating activities was $630 million in 2021 and has averaged $976 million annually for the last three years. This matters because leveraged buyouts (LBOs) depend on free cash flows; typically in an LBO:An acquirer borrows the money necessary to take a company private.The company’s free cash flows are used to cover interest payments while the now-private company is restructured and rebuilt.The repackaged company is brought back to the market via an IPO, which provides the funds to pay back the principal (and provide a profit).Assuming that a Twitter LBO was 90% debt and 10% equity, matching Musk’s offer would require $4.4 billion in cash and $39.6 billion in debt; if we were generous to Twitter and assumed $1 billion in free cash flow, that would necessitate an interest rate of 2.53% just to cover the interest payments. However, interest rates for BBB-rated debt — speculative but investment-grade — are at 4.51%. That would limit borrowing to only $22 billion (I don’t actually know what grade Twitter debt would be, but triple B sounds close enough).So it seems that there really isn't someone willing to come in and the Twitter employees at this point and that's probably alright.Twitter is likely going to be a better company in private. It will be able to make many of the changes it needed to make for nearly a decade now that its business isn't subject to interrogation every 3 months.The main benefit of being public is cheap debt/equity financing. It drops your cost of capital significantly, and for that cheap money, you are expected to expose your business to an enormous amount of criticism. Elong doesn't really need cheap money. He's worth nearly 300 billion...As a dedicated user of Twitter, I'm optimistic that Elon and his team of engineers can cull the bot army, bring identity to the platform, and hopefully improve everyone's experience for the better.💸Reformed Millennials - Post of The WeekWinning Time - The Rise of the Lakers DynastyI absolute love Winning Time on HBO.Kareem Abdul Jabbar, however, did NOT.I read his blog post about the series (please do read it) and I completely understand his points.Thank goodness for the internet and Kareem’s blog. His post is fantastic. He is a great writer and I am so glad he explains what he sees as wrong with the series.If I were HBO, It would be smart to link to this blog post as a way for people to get more from the show... I'm sure they won't.After reading Kareem’s post, I am more inclined to watch the documentary that the Lakers are doing themselves and the Magic Johnson documentary on Apple TV.All of this is art and drama both physical and digital and in this case can be weaved together as a complete interactive story package for those interested in an amazing era of sports, culture, and business.Berkshire week is here:Berkshire is commonly referred to as underperforming, with Mr. Buffett having lost his touch. We'll see lots of Berkshire in the news over the week.Berkshire's stock is up 12.2% versus a 10.0% decline in the S&P 500. For the past year, Berkshire is up 23.6% versus 3.6% for the index. Over two years, Berkshire returned 81.3% cumulative versus 57.4%. For the two years that's 34.6% annualized versus 25.5%.🔮Best Links of The Week🔮The New Climate Bargain: How Canada Can Manage Energy & Environmental Security - RBC Economics Ukraine's Geography and Economy - Peter ZeihanGM says it will produce an electric Corvette! - MSNBCBored Ape Yacht Club Instagram Hacked, NFTs Worth Millions Stolen - ViceTwitter Has a Poison Pill - Matt Levine at BloombergOdd Lots Episode from the podcast - Joe and Tracy This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.reformedmillennials.com
Listen in podcast appIn this week's episode of Reformed Millennials, Joel updates listeners on the market and gives his take on the most recent US CPI inflation print. He also has on Podcast Favorite, Mel Caouette to talk about the Canadian Budget and Upcoming Alberta UCP confidence vote. Listen on Apple, Spotify, or Google Podcasts.If you aren’t in the Reformed Millennials Facebook Group join us for daily updates, discussions, and deep dives into the investable trends Millennials should be paying attention to.👉 For specific investment questions or advice contact Joel @ Gold Investment Management.📈📊Market Update💵📉Most of the first quarter was all about rising interest rates and inflation expectations. As a result, oil & gas, coal, uranium, metal, potash, and other basic material stocks have outperformed substantially year-to-date. There is a new major market theme that emerged in the past couple of weeks. Now, the market is not worried only about inflation. It has begun to discount a potential recession later in the year. Look at the best performers the past two weeks – so many came from defensive sectors like healthcare, utilities, REITs, and consumer staples (discount stores, auto parts stores, farms).186 stocks went down 10% or more last week. Tech stocks (semis, cloud, Internet), financials and US Treasuries were hit the worst. Anything cyclical and related to growth is under pressure. Tech is looking heavy and on the brink of breaking down. QQQ managed to finish right on its 50dma. 34 stocks went up 10% or more last week. The winners – oil & gas names, discount stores, uranium, potash stocks – typical stagflation move. The next earnings season and CPI report are right around the corner. Maybe, the market has begun to price strong earnings in energy stocks and inflation that is likely to remain elevated for the foreseeable future. If the same trends remain, we should see a continuation higher in many of the energy names that started to break out last week.Inflation Is Served 📈What you should be paying attention to?Price increases over last year (CPI report)Gasoline: +48.0%Used Cars: +35.3%Gas Utilities: +21.6%Meats/Fish/Eggs: +13.7%New Cars: +12.5%Electricity: +11.1%Food at home: +10%Overall CPI: +8.5%Transportation: +7.7%Food away from home: +6.9%Apparel: +6.8% Shelter: +5.0%Shelter is the single biggest component of CPI (33% of Index) and is still being wildly understated (@ +5% YoY) with rents up 17% over the last year and home prices up 19%. The actual inflation rate is much higher than 8.5%.How are markets reacting? UpJoel here - Likely we are near a cyclical high for both inflation + long-dated yields, which (if true) will be a big plus for the long-duration growth stocks. Notable most growth stocks didn't crack March lows despite a big rally in rates.2-10 year yields are steepening (this is healthy)Full story from Bloomberg here on CPI https://www.bloomberg.com/.../u-s-inflation-quickens-to-8...💸Reformed Millennials - Post of The WeekAnd the housing bubble under the liberal government goes on.“Permanent residents, foreign workers, and students will be excluded from this new measure. Foreigners who are purchasing their primary residence here in Canada will be exempt.”The net-zero debate is over from Mel CaouetteWithout getting into the specifics of whether this is a good thing or a bad thing, the 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan and Budget 2022 together send a strong signal that the net-zero debate is over in Canada. If the Liberals remain in government until June 2025 as their confidence and supply agreement with the NDP stipulates, I anticipate that global investment sentiment will have changed course, likely for good.The political implications here are far greater for the CPC than for the government. Industry and investment have largely adopted and adapted to the energy transformation. Without the opportunity to form a government until 2025, Canadian conservatives will have to think about how they will strategically approach this issue.When the carbon tax was first introduced, there were clearly impacts on the oil and gas sector. The global price of oil was already down and the increase in taxes cost more money for businesses and households. In Alberta, where the majority of oil and gas companies are headquartered and operate, the timing of a provincial carbon tax overlapped with an NDP government, which further politicized the issue. We’re now in a spot where the debate about whether we are aiming at net-zero is over, though the government could still work to attract investment into the industry as well as embrace the opportunity Canada has to be a global energy superpower, especially within the context of what is happening in Russia and Ukraine.Rhetoric about transitioning off of fossil fuels, and switching primarily to renewable energy creates a perception on the part of the public that we don’t need new pipelines or new forms of energy transportation. In advancing an aggressive clean growth agenda, the government is signalling to investors that they aren’t as interested in certain types of projects unless they align with the new policy direction–not such a big deal, but we’ve got to spend time retraining people so they can work in diverse industries.🔮Best Links of The Week🔮Ted Merz, former journalist and product manager (Bloomberg) had an idea to use tweets from a person’s timeline to build a mosaic.Robinhood added four major cryptocurrencies to its trading platform today and they all registered gainz. 🤑 Shiba Inu, Solana, Polygon, and Compound are the newbies on $HOOD.🇺🇸 The Pentagon is meeting with the defense industry’s top 8 weapon makers to discuss Ukraine’s needs as its war with Russia persists. - Reuters🚗 Cruise expands Walmart autonomous delivery pilot in Arizona This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.reformedmillennials.com
Listen in podcast appIn this week's episode of Reformed Millennials, Broc and Joel discuss how markets are reacting to an inverted yield curve, Biden’s Call for Canadian Oil and Elon’s Investment in Twitter.Listen on Apple, Spotify, or Google Podcasts.If you aren’t in the Reformed Millennials Facebook Group join us for daily updates, discussions, and deep dives into the investable trends Millennials should be paying attention to.👉 For specific investment questions or advice contact Joel @ Gold Investment Management.📈📊Market Update💵📉The indexes ran to their February highs, gapped slightly above them to force the last remaining shorts to cover and cause some FOMO; then they reversed lower. Breakouts stopped… breaking out over the last few days which signals that the market is stalling and in need of some consolidation. It’s normal to see a reaction after multiple days of rallying from the bottom. The question is which stocks will make higher lows and continue higher and which ones will keep pulling back to new lows. Semis and financials already tested their 20dma. So far, the bounce attempt is very tepid. Retailers broke below their 20dma and are looking the most vulnerable. The latter makes sense. Raging inflation will impact not only people’s purchasing power but also their willingness to spend.The main indexes, SPY and QQQ printed inverse weekly candles. It would not be the worst thing in the world if QQQ pulls back to 350 and SPY to 445-440 and let their rising 20-day moving averages catch up with price.Don’t get overly bearish. This minor pullback in the indexes seems like another sector rotation. The weakness in semis, banks and transportation stocks on Friday coincided with strength in biotech. 63 stocks went up 10% or more last week vs 23 that went down 10% or more (priced over $15, average daily volume of 500k shares).We haven’t cared about inflation since 1981. It’s now bubbling up in every day conversation. It matters and we’re at risk of blowing up a booming economy if the central banks don’t handle this situation with care.I think it’s important to address why we had 4 decades of flat to down inflationGlobalizationTechnology and this is not even close to going away but probably accelerating.Unemployment is sub-4%, cruise lines just had their best week ever and Las Vegas casinos are totally mobbed.I'm not convinced yet that this economy is as bad as it was in 2009.💸Reformed Millennials - Post of The WeekI am in a lot of Telegram rooms dedicated to crypto.A lot of the technical banter goes right over my head, but I am starting to read about more apps and products that I would use myself. The infrastructure layer is here.The other day in the 6th man Ventures Telegram they were talking about a fitness app called ‘Stepn‘ and it immediately made sense to me.Here is their ‘Litepaper‘. The gist: https://stepn.com/litePaperAll this makes me wonder why Nike and the other fitness companies have not yet offered products for the metaverse that work like ‘Stepn’, but maybe they will now that they see this working.What makes all this so extra cool is that ‘Stepn’ is already trading on the exchanges. The early users and adopters and people in the community can own the tokens.In the month that it has started trading the ‘green metaverse’ token has gone from 15 cents to $2.60.I have no idea how to value these type of coins/communities/ecosystems, but this is the new financial and digital world we are living in right now and I am trying to take part in it.At minimum, I completely understand why a whole generation of investors has moved over to crypto.🌊 Canadian Companies To Peruse 🌊Shopthing.com - “No more waiting in lines or frustrating try-ons! Our team of Live Shoppers hunt for the best luxury deals daily. All your favorite brands are available via 24 hour flash sales in our iOS App and IG Stories”Raised $10m CAD Series A March 23rd (launched marketplace app March last year) - betakit article announcing the funding says they have 500,000 users 🔮Best Links of The Week🔮Why Shein Might Be Worth 100b in 4 charts - Business of FashionThe Yield Curve Just Inverted…Now What? - Of Dollars and DataA Checklist for corrections - Compound AdvisorsHow People Think - Collaborative FundNetflix Should Start Adding Commercials? - Ben Thompson This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.reformedmillennials.com
Listen in podcast appIn this week's episode of Reformed Millennials, Broc and Joel discuss how markets are reacting to world events, Red Bulls incredible rise as the best marketing and Sports Business operator, and the history of bubbles. Listen on Apple, Spotify, or Google Podcasts.If you aren’t in the Reformed Millennials Facebook Group join us for daily updates, discussions, and deep dives into the investable trends Millennials should be paying attention to.👉 For specific investment questions or advice contact Joel @ Gold Investment Management.📈📊Market Update💵📉The Japanese yen just hit a six-year low against the U.S. dollar.It's down 5% so far in 2022, weakening even more in recent days as, "the Fed climbs an uphill battle to fight inflation".But the way I see it is like this: Is the yen getting destroyed normally evidence of risk appetite or risk aversion?It feels like risk appetite to me.Historically, the weaker yen comes along with a bid for risk assets.So until the market proves otherwise, I would consider these to be encouraging developments.💸Reformed Millennials - Post of The Week“Unless you buy a stock at the exact bottom (which is next to impossible), you will be down at some point after you make every investment. Your success entirely depends on how dispassionate you are towards short term stock price fluctuations.” -Joel GreenblattNot all current losses mean the same thing. It depends on what each investor wanted to do with that position, their time frame, risk management and Portfolio process.If someone no longer holds conviction in the position (that is showing a big loss) and is only holding with the hope of making it back to even. You better cut your loses and run.BUT if someone understands the business, bought for a very LT hold (also adding over the months and years as the Company executes), most of the current drop is Macro related while the company is performing well - some people refer to this as bag holding. I would just call it a normal part of being a LT shareholder.If we expect to hold positions 5-10 yrs (as long as thesis holds), we would be delusional in thinking that none of the tranches bought along the way would never show a big loss (either due to major Macro events, valuation cool-offs or occasional Business stumbles).Volatility and occasional big drawdowns are par for the course for any Business focused long-term investor.Stocks fall...10% once per year or so20% every 5 years30% every decade50% a few times per centuryAs long as you...Own qualityHave a long investment time horizonAre diversified across asset classesHave good cash flowYou can keep calm and think long-term.“acquire rather than sponsor”It was a HUGE first weekend In F1. Like many, I was introduced to the sport through the Netflix Drive to Survive Series.For me, the most interesting and important lesson from F1 is the one being taught by the Red Bull Team.Given the explosion of consumer interest in F1, Red Bull acquiring its racing team in 2004 for $1 & a promise to invest $400M over 3yrs might be one of the best ROI marketing activations ever: impressions impact + additional revenue (other brands' sponsorships) + team value accretion.“acquire rather than sponsor” mentality is so fascinating for a consumer packaged goods company— and at this point, they are pros at both marketing a beverage AND running sports teams given their extensive team portfolio.Dan McMurtries of Tyro Capital - 3 RulesAmericans be fat (anything saying it will make everyone skinny, sell)Moms be shopping (buy) any time the core consumer is the middle-upper class mom you should buyNo the company is not going to cure alzheimer's - AVOIDEconomics of the HalveningSo what is the upshot of these changes on Supply and Demand of ETH?SUPPLYOn the supply side, these changes are expected to further slowdown the inflation of Ethereum and potentially actually make it deflationary sustainably.There will be two counteracting forces on supply:The issuance of new tokens given as rewards to stakers, expected to be in the 0.5-1% range of outstanding Eth per year but will vary depending on the number of Ethereum staked.The burning of base fees which can change dramatically depending on transactions, but assuming current levels of ~4-5K/ETH burned may reduce supply by 1.5%. However, a reduction in fees with sharding would mean that many more transactions would be needed to maintain the same level of burn.Overall, the supply of Eth is likely to move in the + or - 0.5% range per year, although it could deflate much more if transaction volume picks up. Overall, one would expect initially it to continue to inflate, and then perhaps start to deflate as volumes pick up with reduced fees.DEMANDOn the demand side, with transaction fees are expected to go down significantly, both with the increasing prevalence of L2s (unrelated to the shift) and sharding (enabled by the shift to PoS), there is expected to be an increase in the number of transactions happening and users coming into the ecosystem.One important point to note is that now the ETH rewards go to long-term holders of Ethereum who have locked up their ETH. Earlier, there was an immediate downward pressure on demand with miners wanting to sell their rewards. This shift should reduce the downward selling pressure on ETH since the long-term holders may not want to sell their rewards immediately.Additionally, since the staked ETH gets locked up, this reduces the amount of ETH that is available to be used.Already today, about 40M ETH is locked up across the DeFi ecosystem as below.Similarly, already 10M ETH has been staked on the ETH 2.0 smart contract. Once the migration is complete, that number will likely go up, depending on the yields available at the time. In some sense, the DeFi yields available will start to compete with the ETH staking yields available since ETH holders can choose where to deploy their ETH asset.If the ETH staked goes to 30-40M ETH, and with 40M ETH locked in Defi, that implies that 70-80M out of ~115-120M ETH may be locked up, meaning only ~40M ETH of Supply will be truly available.Given other use cases of ETH and the need for ETH to continue to participate in things like NFT, that will mean that everyone that needs ETH to participate in this ecosystem will be “competing” over the remaining 40-50M ETH.As long as demand for ETH continues and people continue to need ETH for DeFi, NFT and other things, that should exert upward pressure on prices. Overall, with lower transaction prices, that is likely to help ETH maintain and grow its use in new experiences and ecosystems over competing L1s.However, it is worth noting that one obvious risk is the growth of L2 chains which might reduce the need for ETH in that Ethereum functions as the chain of chains that transactions are recorded to.CLOSING THOUGHTSThe move from PoW to PoS should further improve Ethereum’s tokenomics by reducing supply growth and aligning the rewards and incentives to long-term holders of Ethereum who have staked/locked up their Ethereum.It also allows holders to more directly consider ETH as a yield generating asset (via staking) which may attract even more institutional interest given the 8-10% ETH denominated yields available, which is a return comparable to stock market (ignoring movement in ETH price relative to USD which could swing it to be more or less favorable).Additionally, lower fees should lead to more use cases and more people and transactions occurring (although Layer 2 chains could pose a risk to this since although more transactions happen, they might occur on L2 chains and be aggregated onto the Ethereum mainnet).When you combine this with the fact that supply growth slows down and many ETH tokens will be locked up in DeFi or Staked, that means we may have more and more Demand for ETH competing for fewer and fewer available ETH.🌊 Canadian Companies To Peruse 🌊HONESTDOOR - Raises 2.2mm seed round!🔮Best Links of The Week🔮DCF model for Ethereum by Coinstack (which I don’t fully agree with since it converts ETH denominated rewards into $ at current prices to calculate the $ value of ETH but is interesting) and The Investment Case for EthereumGuide to Eth Value by DragonFlyEthereum Fees Dashboard by The BlockDistant NASA Spacecraft Snaps Stunning Images of Jupiter and Its MoonsOkta Hack Puts Thousands of Businesses on High Alert📈 Wage Increases Are Not Keeping Up with Inflation This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.reformedmillennials.com
Listen in podcast appIn this week's episode of Reformed Millennials, Broc and Joel discuss how markets are reacting to world events, rate hikes and insane commodity spikes. Listen on Apple, Spotify, or Google Podcasts.If you aren’t in the Reformed Millennials Facebook Group join us for daily updates, discussions, and deep dives into the investable trends Millennials should be paying attention to.👉 For specific investment questions or advice contact Joel @ Gold Investment Management.📈📊Market Update💵📉RATE HIKES - What do they mean?There’s a myth, a misconception in the market that the Fed allegedly rescues falling markets with rate cuts and easing measures, and vice versa for when the market is overheated.This myth began in 1987 during Black Monday, when Alan Greenspan’s Fed cut rates after the crash, creating an impression that the Fed was directly responding to the stock market.This is when the (mis)belief that the Fed would put a floor under a a falling market stuck.Nevertheless, if we analyze the data, it actually demonstrates that the Fed stood pat for most corrections, and cutting cycles typically arrive during bear markets, just as coincidence.There are only two occasions in history where the Fed’s cutting cycles corresponded with market low-points.1. The first is the aforementioned Black Monday of 1987, and even for this case. If we take a look at the situation back then, it’s not so much that the Fed made international moves that contributed to history, but rather that the bear market started amid a global liquidity crisis. With excess liquidity, the rates should have been flat, or down, but that wasn’t the case.Thus, the Fed’s rate cuts were vital to unfreezing credit and ensuring banks and clearing houses would have access to liquidity they needed, while the market was under severe stress.2. The second occasion was the rate cut in 1998, when stocks were reacting to the collapse of Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM).There was fear in the market that this collapse would lead to a domino effect, ending in a banking meltdown.Generally, when people fear a banking contagion, liquidity in interbank funding markets dry up.The Fed’s action to cut rates during this time helped keep money moving, and ensured that banks met their regulatory obligations.In order to understand the recent discussion revolving around the importance of the Fed’s actions, we need to understand human nature.People love finding narrative threads and grand explanations because we’re biologically wired to make sense of the world that way.They confuse correlation and causation, and zero in on evidence that supports their view and shuns whatever suggests otherwise.But it’s important to remember that in most cases, a fact that everyone knows, tends to be closer to myth than reality, and even if it weren’t a myth, the fact that everyone knows it does not give us an edge in the market.SummaryMarket shocks are caused by surprises. News about a pandemic or cyber attack that catches investors off guard is much riskier than macro events that are predictable and can be anticipated. Given that the markets are efficient (which I believe they are), it's rational to assume that news about the Fed's rate hikes, and people reaction to it are already priced in. While short term volatility is definitely expected, we believe that the likelihood of this event becoming a trigger for a multi-year recession is extremely unlikely.💸Reformed Millennials - Post of The Week“Unless you buy a stock at the exact bottom (which is next to impossible), you will be down at some point after you make every investment. Your success entirely depends on how dispassionate you are towards short term stock price fluctuations.” -Joel GreenblattNot all current losses mean the same thing. It depends on what each investor wanted to do with that position, their time frame, risk management and Portfolio process.If someone no longer holds conviction in the position (that is showing a big loss) and is only holding with the hope of making it back to even. You better cut your loses and run.BUT if someone understands the business, bought for a very LT hold (also adding over the months and years as the Company executes), most of the current drop is Macro related while the company is performing well - some people refer to this as bag holding. I would just call it a normal part of being a LT shareholder.If we expect to hold positions 5-10 yrs (as long as thesis holds), we would be delusional in thinking that none of the tranches bought along the way would never show a big loss (either due to major Macro events, valuation cool-offs or occasional Business stumbles).Volatility and occasional big drawdowns are par for the course for any Business focused long-term investor.Stocks fall...10% once per year or so20% every 5 years30% every decade50% a few times per centuryAs long as you...Own qualityHave a long investment time horizonAre diversified across asset classesHave good cash flowYou can keep calm and think long-term.Shopify Partners With Shippo - Ben ThompsonFrom Modern Shipper:Selling products online is easy. But shipping those products is not, as e-commerce merchants contend with continuously increasing customer expectations around speed, price and convenience. Shopify customers, though, are about to receive a massive boost to their fulfillment capabilities through the company’s integration with Shippo for Platforms, a new offering launched by Bay Area-based Shippo on Wednesday. Shopify will become the first platform to leverage the solution, starting in European markets.Shippo is similar to a service like Bringg or Walmart GoLocal that allows sellers to leverage fleet capacity to fulfill e-commerce and other orders. But the Shippo for Platforms offering is geared less toward retail businesses and more toward marketplaces — its value lies in enabling those e-commerce platforms to offer their buyers and sellers a premium shipping experience. Platforms that sign on to the new service will be able to leverage Shippo’s prenegotiated rates, integrated billing services and a global network of over 85 carrier partners.Shippo is a company that has been on my radar for a while, particularly after the company raised money at a $1 billion valuation last summer only months after raising money at $495 million; the company announced it had 100,000 customers at the time with its software shipping solution.To find out more about what Shippo is and why Shopify might want to partner with them, I talked with Shopify founder Laura Behrens Wu. Behrens Wu is originally from Germany, but ended up in San Francisco, where she first got the entrepreneurship bug, and only then realized that shipping was her passion. We discuss what Shippo is and isn’t, the company’s path to this major deal with Shopify, and muse just a bit about where exactly passions come from.NFT CRASH:The Financial Times says that it is not just my NFT that is plunging in value. The gist:Internet collectibles ranging from cartoon apes to artsy doodles have plunged in value as real-world conflict and a broader cryptocurrency slump begins to unwind one of the past year’s biggest speculative frenzies.Digital items known as non-fungible tokens burst into mainstream culture last year, as several animal collections including Bored Ape Yacht Club, Cool Cats and Pudgy Penguins spiked in price, aided by celebrity endorsements and social media hype. By the end of 2021, nearly $41bn had been spent on NFTs — making the market almost as valuable as the global art market.But almost as rapidly, large portions of the market have begun to deteriorate, leaving novice investors with big losses and raising questions about the long term outlook for NFTs.The average selling price of an NFT has dropped more than 48 per cent since a November peak to around $2,500 over the past two weeks, according to data from the website NonFungible.Daily trading volumes on OpenSea, the biggest marketplace for NFTs, have plummeted 80 per cent to roughly $50mm in March, just a month after they reached a record peak of $248mm in February.I think 99.5% of people knew that NFT would crash. We didnt know when it would happen but it always seems so easy to predict in hindsight. Recently i listened to an amazing podcast with Alex Danco. He told this story about band t shirts and how NFTs are just an extension of that identity produced by a band shirt.It really struck me because hes right. The underlying technology still remains that you can identify ownership of digital goods. and this organization is important but it certainly doesnt mean that old web2.0 ideas will be migrating...Twitter of web3 is going to be twitter.Same with youtube and instagram. The switching costs are too great.And this cost is the anchor and the opportunity.🌊 Canadian Companies To Peruse 🌊INVERT - Stop Doom Scrolling. Start Proud Browsing. Start Taking Action.Welcome to Invert. We’re funding carbon reduction and removal projects, and building a platform that puts the power to fight climate change in your hands. 🔮Best Links of The Week🔮Morgan Housel — The Psychology of Money, Picking the Right Game, and the $6 Million JanitorCapital Allocators Interview Josh Wolfe - Caution and Innovation at Lux CapitalAlex Danco - What is Web 3.0 All About with Jim OshagMeta makes Russia Really MAD - Trading ViewCanadian House Prices SPIKE - BNN Bloomberg This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.reformedmillennials.com
Listen in podcast appIn this week's episode of Reformed Millennials, Broc and Joel discuss the often overlooked side of innovation which is the commodities and raw materials. We’ll give some context behind oil and gas prices, what we’re likely to see increase next, and what knock-on effects this is likely to have in the future. Listen on Apple, Spotify, or Google Podcasts.If you aren’t in the Reformed Millennials Facebook Group join us for daily updates, discussions, and deep dives into the investable trends Millennials should be paying attention to.👉 For specific investment questions or advice contact Joel @ Gold Investment Management.📈📊Market Update💵📉Courtesy of Michael BatnickThe Nasdaq 100 is currently in its third bear market of the last 5 years.Tech stocks are getting vaporized. Amazon fell 5.6% today, wiping out all the gains going back to July 2020. Netflix and Facebook are trading at the same level they were at in 2018.The three strongest names in the group, Apple, Google, and Microsoft, are finally losing their bids. All are in correction territory.The amount of market cap that’s being sucked out of these names is without precedent. The seven biggest stocks in the United States are $3 trillion lower today than they were at their combined peaks.Facebook has shed more market cap than any other stock in the world. $567 billion wiped out. $510 billion remain.The somewhat messy chart below is sorted by market cap decline. Fun fact; PayPal is the 20th biggest company in the S&P 500 and has the ignominious honor of losing more market cap than all but 7 companies. A 70% decline in seven months for a mega-cap company is really something else.It’s hard to find a lot of positives to say about the current market environment, but I’ll try anyway; These businesses are cheaper today than they were a year ago.💸Reformed Millennials - Post of The WeekEverything has a cost.Some are direct, like the price at the pump. Some are more difficult to see, like sleepless nights as a new parent.As an Albertan, it's awfully difficult to not say - "I told you so." during times like these. A pipeline to our ports west and east would go a long way in solving the 4-5mm bpd the oil market is missing right now...Either way, you have to pay a price for the decisions we make.When an invasion through needless acts of aggression threatens the post cold war era of peace, a price is being paid by both sides.The tangible prices of war are civilian lives, guns, ammunition, tanks, and fighter jets. The intangible prices are fear, terror, and despair.The tangible mediums of aggression usually do not spawn alone from fierce nationalism but need to be financed through capital in order to be obtained. Someone needs to pay for the war machine to run.Choking the funding source will limit the resources available.The ultimate fight against tyranny is refusing to be a bystander in an ever-connected global social economy. Imposing sanctions is a good start - but even further measures are now being taken.So how is everything connected? Let's take a look at Russia's major exports and their impact on the global economy: Russia is a commodity-driven economy, with its major exports broken down as follows.The main takeaway from the image above is energy dominance and extreme concentration. At this point in the war we know a primary driver of their economy is exporting Oil & Gas, but who is it to?https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/everything-has-cost-joel-shackleton/?trackingId=XvCmFO9MRtyVlgAbQEFcWg%3D%3D Canadian Housing Market - Feb DataA turning point? More sellers enter Canada's housing market in February.One month doesn’t make a trend but if February is any indication, more sellers may be (finally) making their way into Canada’s housing market. Early results from local real estate boards showed notable month-to-month increases in new listings across major markets. This was especially the case in Calgary and Edmonton where a wave of properties put up for sale set the stage for the strongest number of transactions ever recorded in a February. Elsewhere, the impact on activity was generally positive albeit more muted. Buyers still face a dearth of supply, maintaining intense upward pressure on prices. Local real estate boards reported further price acceleration, led by the Fraser Valley, Toronto and Vancouver where property values made big leaps (again) from already sky-high levels in January.read the rest hereUplifting Post From Morgan HouselMy 2 favorite quotes from his post:Historian Dan Carlin recently wrote:For all its evil, war sometimes has a tiny silver lining. It can clarify the mind and reboot our ethical compass. It puts less serious things in perspective. It nudges us towards our neighbor and reminds us that our needs and interests are intertwined. It reignites our compassion.That’s the great irony of war, one I never know how to reconcile: So many of the greatest things we value came from the worst events we pray to avoid...“History doesn’t crawl; it leaps,” says Nassim Taleb. The most important events tend to be abrupt, out of the blue, changing the world before people have time to rub their eyes and understand what’s happening.🌊 Canadian Companies To Peruse 🌊Partake Brewing - Calgary non-alcoholic beer company raises $16.5m Series B 🔮Best Links of The Week🔮Caution and Innovation at Lux Capital - Josh Wolfe shares his cautious approach to investing in today’s environment and discusses technological advances across science, space, and defense.Moving Money Internationally - A timely article explains how the SWIFT global payments system and other aspects of financial plumbing work in an accessible way.Invest Like The Best Podcast - Eric MandelblattOdd Lots Oil and Gas and Geopolitics - Matt Klein This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.reformedmillennials.com
Listen in podcast appIn this week's episode of Reformed Millennials, Broc and Joel discuss how markets are reacting to world events, highlights from the Alberta Budget, the Spotify “car-thing” and whether they’ll be able to start tracking conversions for audio advertisers after their latest acquisition. Plus a Canadian startup who started pivoted from helping refugees settle into new regions to increasing employee engagement in internal events raises a $3.5m USD seed round.Listen on Apple, Spotify, or Google Podcasts.If you aren’t in the Reformed Millennials Facebook Group join us for daily updates, discussions, and deep dives into the investable trends Millennials should be paying attention to.👉 For specific investment questions or advice contact Joel @ Gold Investment Management.📈📊Market Update💵📉This Market feels more like 2012 than 2022… Especially when you look at the names that are attractive.Rising rates, geopolitical stress, inflation. All reasons for recent market volatility. But the reality is, this is normal. Over the past 4 decades, the average intra-year stock drawdown was 14%. And yet, in 80% of those years, the calendar return was positive.Year over Year Hard Assets vs. Financial Assets Uranium Miners $URNM +204% Gas Expl $FCG +180% Coal Miners $ARCH +166% Agriculture $MOS +100% Oil Exp $XOP +135% Copper, Steel $XME +74% vs. Nasdaq 100 NDX +22% Bonds $ZROZ -15% Bonds $TLT -11%The main indexes tested and even went below their January lows, only to stage a major bounce towards the end of the week, last week. Given the sentiment and economic backdrop, it’s probably just an oversold bounce within a continued bear market. And yet, it’s still anyone’s guess to how long it’ll last. The S&P 500 testing its declining 20-day moving average or even 450 is not out of a question here.Metals stocks have been notably the strongest sector, probably due to war-related sanctions. XME is at 10-year highs. Steel, aluminum, copper stocks are busting loose.Oil stocks are also holding well and are setting up for potential breakouts - GUSH, ERX, AR, DVN, TRGP, FANG, MUR, SU, etc.It’s good to see stocks outside of the commodity space starting to break out and set up nicely on shorter time horizons… see SEAS, LNPH, DOCS, etc.It’s still a headline-driven choppy market that is capable of gapping up or down 2% on any given day. This environment requires one to be nimble, open-minded, and willing to trade both sides of the market.💸Reformed Millennials - Post of The WeekCharlie Bilello Had a fantastic post this weekend filled with charts.I've pulled out the Russia-centric parts of his post attached at the bottom.The Russian Ruble has completely crashed. Since its peak in 2008, the Ruble has now lost 73% of its value against the US Dollar.The Russian equity ETF ($RSX) debuted in April 2007 and has been twice as volatile as the S&P 500 since then.Have investors been rewarded for this additional risk?Not exactly.The Russia ETF ($RSX) is down 38% since inception versus a 295% gain for the S&P 500 ($SPY ETF).While Russian stocks were crashing, US stocks initially sold off in sympathy, hitting a new correction low near the open on February 24th.At -14.6% and 51 days, this was the largest drawdown for the S&P 500 since February/March 2020 and the longest since 2018.But the declines on the 24th didn’t last, as the S&P 500 rose 4.2% from its low to finish the day in positive territory. This was one of the largest intra-day rallies for the S&P 500 in history, and it occurred exactly one month after a similar rally (+4.4% on January 24).Rate Hikes:The volatility in the markets has not dampened the expectations of the market for rate hikes very much at all.While a 50 basis point (bps) initial move is now seen as a low probability event, Fed Funds Futures are still anticipating 25 bps hikes at the March, May, June, and July FOMC meetings with 6 hikes in total by year-end (to a range of 1.50%-1.75%).Why are investors expecting rate hikes in spite of the weakness in the financial markets?The glaring disconnect between Fed policy and inflation.We received more data on that front this week with the PCE Price Index showing a 6.1% increase over the last year, the highest rate of inflation in 40 years. This compares to a historical average of 3.25% inflation since 1960.Meanwhile, the Fed Funds Rate remains close to 0% versus its average over the same time period of 4.8%.Lest the Fed loses all their remaining credibility, the rate hikes are coming.https://compoundadvisors.com/2022/7-chart-sunday-2-27-22What Russian Sanctions Mean For Europe and The World“Now that the question of a Russian invasion of Ukraine has proven itself not to be a hypothetical, Western governments will be pushed to respond.The United States and its European allies are likely to pursue a sanctions campaign, but this is easier said than done. While it has been popular to deride Russia and its economy as a "gas station" masquerading as a country, the reality is that Russia is a significant--often the largest--exporter of several critical commodities. Russian exports directly feed and fuel (or enable the processes to do so) vast swathes of the world from South America to the Middle East and East Asia--in addition to lighting and heating European homes and supplying crude oil to US Gulf Coast refineries.For the latter scenario, Russian crude exports to the world's largest oil producer picked up significantly in 2021 as a result of US sanctions against Venezuela, illustrating the double-edged nature of sanctions in the globalized economy.The Ukraine War: Energy EditionThe ins and outs of the major oil and natural gas suppliers is a favorite topic of ours here at Zeihan on Geopolitics, and it forms a cornerstone of our expertise; my team and I have decades of combined experience on the issues facing global energy. Crack open any of my books and you'll see that oil and gas are usually the topic of the longest chapters. My second book, The Absent Superpower, chronicles the many outcomes of the American shale revolution. Most notable: an America able to divorce itself from the wider world, and a major regional war in which Russia invades…Ukraine.Now we are gearing up for the release of our newest project - The End of the World is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization. The new book breaks down the future shape of various economic sectors in a post-globalized world: finance, manufacturing, agriculture. Energy The rapidly-building Ukraine War obviates nothing in the new book (thankfully), but it certainly focuses the mind on the burning questions of the day. How badly will the war impact the world’s second-largest energy exporter? Which consuming markets will be most (and least) impacted? How will those markets adapt to the sudden loss of Russian exports? How long will those losses last?🌊 Canadian Companies To Peruse 🌊EPOCHAPP.COM - Founded in Kitchener, Ontario. Epoch is the employee experience platform that drives engagement in your learning programs, DEI and ERG initiatives, AMAs, All Hands and internal events. Raises $3.6m USD from Rally Ventures (feb 23rd). 🔮Best Links of The Week🔮YouTube adds another TikTok feature: live ringsThe Netherlands has fined Apple five times over app store paymentsEA CEO explains why company may ditch FIFA branding in leaked staff commentsInventing Anna Sets Surprising Netflix Record As It Remains #1 In The Top 10iPhone average selling price up 14% as iPhone 13 drives record revenue This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.reformedmillennials.com
Listen in podcast appIn this week's episode of Reformed Millennials, Broc and Joel discuss the Canadian Mortgage/Housing problem, Putins End Game, and the Sovereign Individual.Listen on Apple, Spotify, or Google Podcasts.If you aren’t in the Reformed Millennials Facebook Group join us for daily updates, discussions, and deep dives into the investable trends Millennials should be paying attention to.👉 For specific investment questions or advice contact Joel @ Gold Investment Management.📈📊Market Update💵📉Most stocks are in a bear market. There has been no follow-through on earnings breakouts this season. Most upside gaps are either faded immediately or lead to exactly one day of upside action before they get slammed. On the other side, there has been plenty of follow-through on earnings breakdowns – see PYPL, FB, and SHOP for an example.Nothing goes straight down or up. Occasionally, bear markets have viscous short-term rallies just so they can scare the shorts out of their positions and trick new longs in. When the bear lays out honey, it is usually a trap. The tiny low-volume bounces just create better risk/reward short opportunities. The bounce we saw in the first half of February was followed by more selling. In fact, many cloud and Internet stocks have started another leg lower.To top it off, there is a war lingering in the air. I don’t know how much of it has already been discounted but markets tend to overshoot. Scared people tend to panic and panic leads to liquidations and forced selling. No wonder buyers are with one foot out the door and have to conviction. And this won’t change until the indexes make a higher high which currently means 460 for SPY. In rising markets, it pays to hold longer. During corrective, choppy markets is important to be nimble and take profits quickly on both long and short positions because they tend to disappear quickly. If you cannot adjust to this new reality, it is better just to stay on the sidelines and wait out the storm.The main indexes seem headed for a test of their January lows. This means 420 for the S&P 500 (SPY), 334 for the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), 190 for Russell 2000 (IWM). They don’t have to get there in a straight line. There could be another bounce along the way.💸Reformed Millennials - Post of The WeekWHILE CANADIANS COMPLAIN UNABATED ABOUT THEIR FREEDOM OR “LACK THERE OF”, SOMETHING THAT ACTUALLY MATTERS IS GOING ON EAST OF US.Attached is a great run down from Peter Ziehan on Russia, NATO and Ukrainian tensions. Additionally, he explains why this is happening and where the real US involvement will start.Worth the 5 mins: (my favorite part copied below)The Kremlin has been threatening Kiev for a decade now. My caution to today’s Russia watchers has been that there was little occurring which suggested this season’s round of Russian angst and anger was in any way unique.Until today. Putin’s speech does more than merely suggest that Russia is ready to go.Sanctions - real or imagined, in-place or threatened - will not shift Putin’s stance. For Russia, control of Ukraine isn’t simply seen as a birthright, but as an issue of national survival. The Russian population suffers so completely from drug abuse, alcoholism, malnutrition, and disease that it is the world’s fastest collapsing demography (although recent statistical updates suggest China is challenging Russia for the top spot). Patrolling Russia’s current borders is laughably beyond the capacity of Russia’s current population. But forward-positioning what troops remain in those gateways? That just might work. So, the Russians will try.About the only would-be sanction which might - might - earn a blink from the Kremlin would be if the Europeans all swore off Russian oil and natural gas. That export line-item is far and away the Russian government’s largest money-maker, accounting for a hefty majority of income. But in doing so the Europeans would be cutting off their primary energy provider, condemning themselves to the dark and cold. And so that specific threat hasn’t happened. I’d be impressed - and shocked - if it did.I’d be equally shocked if the fall of Ukraine were the end of the story. Ukraine is not a NATO ally. The West will not send regular troops to support Ukraine. That makes Ukraine - with its 45-million-strong population - the easy target. What assistance arrives will be designed to snarl the Russians in as painful and bloody of an occupation as possible. The real show - the real war - comes after. The two most important gateways to the Russian heartland remain: the Baltic Sea coast and the portion of the Polish gap that lies in, well, Poland. Unlike Ukraine, the countries in question here - Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia - are members of the NATO alliance. And of the European Union as well.The Baltic beaches and the plains of Poland are where the future of Russia and the West, of the European Union and NATO, will ultimately be decided. It is there that Russia will succeed or die. This is far worse than it sounds. Russia’s population is in free-fall. A Russian occupation of Ukraine completed to Russia’s satisfaction will still absorb most of what’s left of Russia’s conventional military capabilities, leaving only the decidedly unconventional available for the next conflict.Russia won’t fight its Twilight War with soldiers.SHOPIFY’s EVOLUTIONSubscribe to stratechery for the full story:Back in 2004 a lot of the pieces that were necessary to run an e-commerce site existed, albeit in rudimentary and hard-to-use forms. One could, with a bit of trouble, open a merchant account and accept credit cards; 3PL warehouses could hold inventory; UPS and Fedex could deliver your goods. And, of course, you could run really cheap ads on Google. What was missing was software to tie all of those pieces together, which is exactly what Lütke built for Snowdevil, his snowboard shop, and in 2006 opened up to other merchants; the software’s name was called Shopify:This idea of Shopify as the hub for an e-commerce shop is one that has persisted to this day, but over the ensuing years Shopify has added on platform components as well; a platform looks like this:The first platform was the Shopify App Store, launched in 2009, where developers could access the Shopify API and create new plugins to deliver specific functionality that merchants might need. For example, if you want to offer a product on a subscription basis you might install Recharge Subscriptions; if you want help managing your shipments you might install ShipStation. Shopify itself delivers additional functionality through the Shopify App Store, like its Facebook Channel plugin, which lets you easily sync your products to Facebook to easily manage your advertising.A year later Shopify launched the Shopify Theme Store, where merchants could buy a professional theme to make their site their own; now the hub looked like this:At the same time Shopify also vertically integrated to incorporate features it once left to partners; the most important of these integrations was Shopify Payments, which launched in 2013 and was rebranded as Shop Pay in 2020. Yes, you could still use a clunky merchant account, but it was far easier to simply use the built-in Shop Pay functionality. Shop Pay was also critical in that it was the first part of the Shopify stack to build a consumer brand: users presented with a myriad of payment options know that if they click the purple Shop Pay button all of their payment and delivery information will be pre-populated, making it possible to buy with just one additional tap.Even with this toehold in the consumer space, though, Shopify has remained a company that is focused first-and-foremost on its merchants and its mission to “help people achieve independence by making it easier to start, run, and grow a business.” That independence doesn’t just mean one-person entrepreneurs either: good-size brands like Gymshark, Rebecca Minkoff, KKW Beauty, Kylie Cosmetics, and FIGS leverage Shopify to build brands that are independent of Amazon in particular.Canadian Housing and Mortgage Trends:Emergencies Act from Mel Caouette:Protests across the country have settled following the federal government invoking the Emergencies Act last Tuesday. The public order emergency grants the Government the authority to apply the following temporary measures:Regulating and prohibiting public assemblies, including blockades, other than lawful advocacy, protest or dissentRegulating the use of specified property, including goods to be used with respect to a blockadeDesignating and securing places where blockades are to be prohibited (e.g. borders, approaches to borders, other critical infrastructure)Directing specified persons to render essential services to relieve impacts of blockades on Canada’s economyAuthorizing or directing specified financial institutions to render essential services to relieve the impact of blockades, including by regulating and prohibiting the use of property to fund or support the blockadesMeasures with respect to authorizing the Royal Canadian Mounted Police to enforce municipal and provincial laws by means of incorporation by referenceThe imposition of fines or imprisonment for contravening on any of the measures declared under this public order emergency Developments from last night... Prime Minister Trudeau argued Monday that the Emergencies Act measures must remain even though demonstrators have left Ottawa because of the threat they could return.The Conservatives asked the government to confirm whether the vote was a confidence measure, but since Trudeau was absent from the House, Liberal House Leader Mark Holland refused to answer the question and call the debate.Despite the fact that there were two Liberal MPs critical of the government invoking the Emergencies Act (Nathaniel Erskine-Smith and Joel Lightbound) they voted to extend the powers due to the confidence vote and threat of an election. The motion to confirm the declaration of emergency powers passed 185-151 last night with the NDP voting in favour alongside the Liberal government and the Conservatives and Bloc Quebecois against.The vote to approve the measures will keep them in place until mid-March at the latest.The Senate also has to vote on this matter.At any point, the Senate, House of Commons or government could pull support and the extraordinary powers stemming from the emergencies law would be revoked.The Sports Gambling Gold Rush Is Absolutely Off the ChartsOnline Gambling peaked last year... Even though sports betting is up 80% YoY.Draft kings and Penn National Gaming are both down 59% and 61% since March 2021...Investing is hard.https://www.bloomberg.com/.../2021-opinion-online-sports.../🌊 Canadian Companies To Peruse 🌊Runalloy.com - The operating system for ecommerce 🔮Best Links of The Week🔮How to interpret provincial budgets - Pocket Lobbyist Facebook's Impenetrable Flywheel - from YMCNRussia Turns Asia Markets Red Overnight - China Last NightThe PLTR plunge - from Toggle Daily Market BriefCovid Rotation continues: Shopify - from Ben EvansShopify handled over $175bn of GMV in 2021, making it roughly 45% the size of Amazon Marketplace (tell me again how it’s possible to compete with Amazon’s ‘monopoly’). It’s an $82bn company - but the results missed estimates and the stock is down over 60% from the peak last November (of course, so are a lot of other things). I don’t do valuations, but there’s a huge amount of leverage here - will all the different projects to improve the take rate and the margin and build a network effect actually work, or is this in the end a low-margin commodity SaaS provider? (There's some suggestion a slowdown is linked to Apple's advertising crackdown making it harder for Shopify's SME customers to advertise, but it's hard to see that in the numbers.) Also this quarter, the company announced a $1bn investment in physical delivery infrastructure, which for a bear may be both too much (goodbye software margins) and not enough (Amazon spent $75bn on fulfilment in 2021). This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.reformedmillennials.com
In this exciting episode, Eilidh tells Kieran about the Appin murder, a murder mystery from 250 years ago! In the wake of the Jacobite uprising power is being grabbed and people are suffering from it, an assassin seeks revenge but who was the killer? If you want to support the podcast, please subscribe and leave a review. We'd really appreciate it! You can also join us over on Patreon for loads of cool stuff: Get access to new episodes a whole week before anyone else Gain access to extra mini-episodes every two weeks You can listen to the weekly wee blether where we debrief the latest episode and have a more casual chat. You get access to the book club where Eilidh is currently reading the Turn of The Screw by Henry James Plus 10% off merch in our Merch Store
Our sponsor: Houghton Hornswww.houghtonhorns.comUse code "GOLD21" when subscribing to get your first month free on the GOLD Method app!www.ryanbeachtrumpet.com/gold-method-appIn this episode, I've selected some clips from an episode of "Dave Tate's Table Talk" to share with you all, and to discuss how his understanding of how to develop skill can be applied to musicians.Dave 'Under The Bar' has been involved in Strength & Conditioning for over three decades. He has logged more than 40,000 hours of training and consulting with professional, elite, gen pop and novice athletes, trainers and coaches. He has spoken at over 100 events and authored 20 books, as well as, writing over 2000 articles for magazines and prominent websites. Dave competed in Powerlifting between 1983-2004 obtaining elite rankings in multiple weight classes. Dave is married to elitefts co-founder Traci Arnold-Tate where they resided in London, Ohio with their two sons. Personal Credo: Live, Learn, Pass on™.Support the show (https://thatsnotspit.com/support/)
Luciana Gilmore is an educator, author and mentor for adolescent girls looking to change the future. She wants to repair and strengthen relationships between mothers and daughters through her Gilmore Girls program and FA(I)RE (pronounced FAIR-ee) appIn this episode of Unscripted Gilmore, we went one-on-one to discuss her three main companies and the parent company - Novaturient Industries. Luciana is the Chief Executive Officer of Novaturient. She left a "safe" career as a school Principal and created companies that are changing the score for young women and men. Inspirational, powerful and passionate. Do NOT miss this guest. LINKS:Novaturient Industries - https://www.novaturientindustries.com/Gimore Girls Greetings - https://www.gilmoregirlsgreetings.com/Email - msaka4@me.com"Daughter, Have I told You Lately?" Book - https://www.amazon.com/Daughter-Have-Told-You-Lately/dp/099817016X
Chris Dolan (award-winning novelist and playwright) tells the story of the Appin Murder - a chilling tale set in the aftermath of the 1745 Jacobite Uprising. Listen for a surprising connection to Robert Louis Stevenson's 1886 novel, 'Kidnapped'! Chris Dolan bio: https://saraband.net/contributor/chris-dolan/ For more information about Unspeakable Scotland, visit: www.thebiglight.com/unspeakablescotland
Chris Dolan (award-winning novelist and playwright) tells the story of the Appin Murder - a chilling tale set in the aftermath of the 1745 Jacobite Uprising. Listen for a surprising connection to Robert Louis Stevenson's 1886 novel, 'Kidnapped'!Chris Dolan bio: https://saraband.net/contributor/chris-dolan/For more information about the podcast, visit: www.thebiglight.com/unspeakablescotland See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.
Here's the podcast of the Group 6 Rugby League 2nd Grade Semi Final between Appin and Mittagong. Commentary from Mike Shean.
Here's the podcast of the Group 6 Rugby League 2nd Grade match between Appin and Mittagong. Commentary from Mike Shean.
Here's the podcast of the 2nd Grade match between Appin and The Oaks at Appin Sportsground. Commentary from Mike Shean.
Here is the full call of the 2nd Grade game between Appin and Oakdale played on 15 August at Wayne Gardner Reserve, Oran Park. Commentary from Mike Shean and Craig Davis.
Our July episode begins with South32's grubby use of the Coronavirus crisis to dial down safety and cut wages at Appin Mine. South Western District Vice President Bob Timbs explains the company's tactics, and we hear from a couple of Appin miners dudded by the move. At 7.15 Former General Secretary Andrew Vickers reflects on lives lost and lessons learnt from major mining disasters we commemorate in July. At 15.12 CFMMEU National Secretary Michael O'Connor reveals how members from all the Union's divisions have kept the country running - and where they now need backup from government. At 22.50 Matt Hofman from the Appin Lodge in the Southern district ends our July episode with his poem ‘We Are Coal'.
Jazz Appin is a co-creator of SWANevada, Sex Workers Alliance of Nevada. SWAN is a community-led movement creating sanctuary spaces which support, validate, and celebrate Nevada sex workers. Before establishing SWAN in 2019, Jazz was born in Panama and moved to Las Vegas when she was 13 years old, where she attended and graduated from Las Vegas Academy and UNLV. While attending UNLV, Jazz majored in Gender & Sexuality Studies and become involved with multiple social organizations & movements. Thereafter she used her experience and education in social rights, social movements, and sex work to coalesce SWANevada into a sanctuary for the mistreated Sex Workers of Nevada. Las Vegas is primed to be a leader within the Sex Worker's Rights Movement due to its sexualized nature and sex worker dominated industry. This 105-minute conversation explains the theory behind sex work, what is a sex worker, and why SWANevada is creating a sanctuary for Sex Workers across Nevada. Flow of the Show Introduction (0:00)SWAN Talent Show (2:00)Who is Jazz Appin? (3:40)Building ground work at UNLV (6:08)Sexualizing Vegas (14:30)History of sex work (17:37)~~Who & What is a sex worker? (21:40)~~Building a sanctuary for full-service workers (32:40) ~~"What is free speech really?" (42:00)~~Tearing down frail walls (49:44)Effects of decriminalization (55:20)~~What is SWANevada? (1:05:22)~~About the March of Whores.....which was locally televised (1:21:00)Where Vegas stands within the Sex Worker's Rights Movement (1:26:50)What does Las Vegas mean to you? and closing out notes (1:36:13)|STREAMING ON ALL PLATFORMS|-Apple Podcasts-Spotify-Google Podcasts-Youtube -Overcast-Stitcher-Podchaser|CONNECT W/ JAKE GALLEN & THE GUEST LIST POD|@JakeGallen-Instagram-Twitter-Facebook-Linkedin@TheGuestListPod-Instagram-Twitter-Facebook
Tobermory, written in 1911, is a masterpiece short story satirizing the pretentiousness and dim-wittedness of Edwardian Era high-society. In this episode Mr. Appin has taught the Blemley's cat, Tobermory, to talk. Chaos, and plans of cat-murder ensue as Toby reveals in his human voice, their affairs, gossip and stupidity.
Giggle Gang, I’m back!! I’ve been enjoying this hot girl summer jet setting and galavanting across these United States, but I’ve missed y’all, so let’s get right to it! The 4th annual Be Out Day ATL was a major success! I had a blast and can’t wait to do it again next year. As for […]
This week’s podcast guests are Stacey and Max Holloway of WayOutside Limited in Oban, Scotland. I went from being slightly anxious about how a three way interview over Skype would go, to feeling very comfortable with their complimentary conversational style. They were both very in tune with each other as both people and swimmers, and the confluence of their individual swim stories into a coherent narrative about their business was very easy to navigate. It felt like a real yin yang relationship. What struck me most about this interview, was a search for community and a desire to contribute. When they arrived in Oban, Stacey and Max found many wild swimmers, but no local group. From there was born the Oban Seals. This simple, coordinating structure gave lots of individual activity a collective home. A carefully chosen place and time for a regular group swim increases visibility, raises interest, removes myths about the kind of people who do this sort of thing and reduces the barriers that people may experience to getting involved. From there, a community builds. The benefits spread like ripples in water. Loneliness is diminished. People have friends and acquaintances to ask for help. Groups pick up litter on the beach during each swim. People become more active. There is inclusion and prevention. It is small but significant. And that makes a difference. Things we talk about Oban, Loch Etive, WayOutside Ltd, Oban Seals, Loch Lomond, Loch Linnhe, Henley Classic, Cambridge lido, Bray Lake, Windsor, Outdoor Swimming Society, Big/Little Ganavan beaches, Highland Open Water Swimming, Sound of Mull, Lismore to Appin, Corryvreckan, Easedale quarry, Munro bagging, Loch of the Lowes, Arisaig, Moidart, Neptune Steps, Scottish Winter Swimming Championships, Wim Hof method
A Queensland community says its reached a 'crisis point' after a number of young people took their own lives in the space of just months.
On the show tonight Aiden Williams and I go through Rd 1 at Appin held in arguably the worst conditions ever seen in 23 years of the MX Nationals. We interview MX1 winner Todd Waters, MX2 winner Jy Roberts and runner up Jay Wilson.
Inside Dirt Show with Joe Stevens Episode 2, with Geran Stapleton in studio discussing everything that happened at the MUD fest that was Round 1 of the 2019 MX Nationals series. GUESTS on the show: Todd Waters - MX1 Class Winner Jy Roberts - MX2 Class Winner Micheal Murphy - Surprise MXD Class 3rd Place
Inside Dirt Show with Joe Stevens Episode 1, with Geran Stapleton in-studio previewing the 2019 MX Nationals season that kicks off this weekend March 16th & 17th at Appin, NSW GUESTS on the show: Brett Metcalfe - Penrite Factory Honda Racing Jay Wilson - Yamalube Yamaha Kevin Williams - MX Nationals Promoter Bailey Malkiewicz - DPH Husqvarna
The one about secrets and lies and why do we tell lies or keep secrets. Telling other people's secrets without revealing their names, or have we. Surf Sux Surf Shop in Appin that sell pasties. Do your Parents tell lies that we have to define the real truth as Adults. The number one bodily function podcast in Australia.
The Loremen discover that Lincoln Green is people, and ride to windswept Argyll on an "entire" horse.In Episode 3, James and Alasdair are joined by another Deputy Loreman: award-having comedian and troubadour Jon Long. Find the show notes here: www.loremenpodcast.com/episode-3-s2 @loremenpod www.instagram.com/loremenpod www.loremenpodcast.com/about www.facebook.com/LoremenPod @JamesShakeshaft | @MisterABK | @jonlongstandup Here’s the Lincoln Echo video Jon tells us about. (We were clearly joking about this guy. Do not sue us, please.) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=12AEvoeNaJ0 A quick correction: It turns out St Mary’s unique porch in Chipping Norton is HEXagonal, not octagonal. And there are two other like it. Also, the Princess Di visit is not corroborated:https://www.britainexpress.com/attractions.htm?attraction=5086Finally, never let it be said that the Lincoln Echo can’t do clickbait titles:Do You Like Lincoln’s Big Metal Face? (Lincoln Echo)
This has got to be one of the most exciting stories in Highland history. Feuds, ambushes, sieges, plotting. This story needs to become either a bestselling novel or a blockbuster hit. The Stewarts of Appin are in the center of the story, with John, Lord of Lorn, trying to pass on his inheritance to an illegitimate son, Dugald, if he can live long enough to do it. Also, there is some information on the MacFarlanes, who play an antagonistic role. Below are some links. The first is to Electric Scotland, which was the source I read the story from. Follow more links at the bottom of that webpage for more study. https://www.electricscotland.com/webclans/stoz/appin_stewarts.htm
Share Irish and Celtic music from Emish, Garry O'Meara, RUNA, The Tea Merchants, The Irish Rovers, Smithfield Fair, Bill Troxler, Pol Mac Adaim, Drunk & Sailor, Rising Gael, Kilrush, O'Craven, Larkin, Screeched Inn, Brothers 3. Listen. Like. Then download 34 Celtic MP3s for Free! http://bestcelticmusic.net/297 Subscribe to the Celtic Music Magazine. This is our free newsletter and your guide to the latest Celtic music and podcast news. Remember to support the artists who support this podcast: buy their CDs, download their MP3s, see their shows, and drop them an email to let them know you heard them on the Irish and Celtic Music Podcast. Today's show is brought to you by the Patrons of the Podcast Every Thursday, you get an hour of awesome Celtic music by some of the best indie Celtic musicians online. Our patrons generously pledge a buck or more per episode to bring these artists into your ears. Their kind support pays for the production of the podcast including my in producing the show. Whenever we hit a milestone, you get an extra-long special. Become a patron today. Because these Celtic musicians deserve to be heard. celticmusicpodcast.com/patron/ Notes: * Helping you celebrate Celtic culture through music. My name is Marc Gunn. I am a musician and podcaster. You can share this show and find more episodes at celticmusicpodcast.com. And you can support this show on Patreon. * CELTIC PODCAST NEWS Check the website for the latest Celtic Music News and new Celtic CDs. If you're in a Celtic band, or know a band who just released a CD, please do two simple things. One, contact the band. Ask them to submit to the Irish & Celtic Music Podcast at 4celts.com. And two, email me. Tell me about the CD so I can contact the band and get them on the show. * I want to send out a big thanks to the patrons of the podcast. Your generous pledge of as little as $1 per episode pays for the production of this podcast as well as my time in producing the show. You will enjoy a personal podcast feed where you can listen to the show before regular subscribers, occasional extended editions of the show, and my deepest thanks. When we hit a milestone, you get a 2-hour special. Thanks to our newest patron: Jason Meyers. Thank you all for your generosity! Become a patron today! * I WANT YOUR FEEDBACK: What are you doing today while listening to the podcast? You can send a written comment along with a picture of what you're doing while listening, or from one of your trips to one of the Celtic nations. Call 678-CELT-POD to leave a voicemail message. That's 678-235-8763. Peter Holland posted on Facebook: "listened to [show #296] last night after the rain made my Direct TV lose signal. Great music". This Week in Celtic Music 0:26 "Julia Delaney" by Emish from Sinners Make the Best Saints 5:05 "Box Room Fantasy" by Garry O'Meara from Pickin' Time 7:49 "Fear a Bhata" by RUNA from LIVE 14:12 "Gaol Jigs" by The Tea Merchants from Gaslight Snaps 17:33 "Trust in Drink" by The Irish Rovers from Drunken Sailor 20:10 CELTIC PODCAST NEWS 21:13 "Appin, Mo Chridhe" by Smithfield Fair from 20 For 20 22:47 "Auchanachie Gordon" by Bill Troxler from 12 Degrees of Separation 28:08 "Forsaken Land" by Pol Mac Adaim from Forsaken Land 31:36 "Bully in the Alley" by Drunk & Sailor from Doing What We Do 33:25 CELTIC FEEDBACK 33:56 "Weatherman" by Rising Gael from IV 37:40 "Lily's Ghost" by Kilrush from The Basement Sessions 42:06 "San Patricio" by O'Craven from Whiskey, Wenches, and Scallywag 46:52 "Faith of a Felon" by Larkin from Alexandra 49:37 "Farewell to Nova Scotia" by Screeched Inn from Screeched Inn 54:52 "Da Shetlands" by Brothers 3 from The Journey That Lies Before VOTE IN THE CELTIC TOP 20. It's easier than ever to do. Just list the show number, and the name of one band. That's it. Your vote will help me create next year's Best Celtic music of 2017 episode. The Irish & Celtic Music Podcast was produced by Marc Gunn, The Celtfather. To subscribe, go to iTunes or to our website where you can become a Patron of the Podcast for as little as $1 per episode. Promote Celtic culture through music at celticmusicpodcast.com.
Loren Appin is a growth and marketing executive with 8 years experience leading product, marketing, social, and analytics. He is passionate about building products that people love, and getting people to love those products. Loren is currently the VP of Growth at Pixable. Remember to download our 10- day Growth Hacking course for free at https://www.growthhackingpodcast.com/freecourseFor more information and resources, visit https://www.growthhackingpodcast.com
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