Moody's Talks - Muniland

Robust revenue gains and easing expense growth will buoy not-for-profit hospitals over the next 12 months, while state and local taxes will play a growing role in funding many of the nation's transit systems.  Guests: Nansis Hayek, Analyst - Moody's Ratings; Rita Strauss, AVP-Analyst - Moody's Ratings; Matt Butler, Vice President - Moody's RatingsHost: Nick Samuels, Senior Vice President - Moody's RatingsRelated content on Moodys.com (may only be available to registered users and subscribers):Not-for-Profit and Public Healthcare – US: 2025 Outlook - Stable as profitability rises modestly on revenue growth, cost controlsMass Transit – US: 2025 Outlook - Stable as taxes and state funding continue to support operations

The availability and affordability of home insurance is declining as damage from hurricanes and wildfires becomes more frequent. That could have negative implications for property values and tax revenues, particularly in the most disaster-prone states. Guests: Michael Wertz, VP - Senior Analyst, Moody's Ratings; Denise Rappmund, VP - Senior Analyst, Moody's RatingsHost: Nick Samuels, Senior Vice President, Moody's RatingsRelated content on Moodys.com (may only be available to registered users and subscribers):State and Local Governments – US: Rising insurance costs indicate growing climate risk to state and local governments

The operating environment for K-12 districts is getting tighter as $190 billion in pandemic support ends, employee costs climb, and declining birthrates reduce the school-age population. Guest: David Levett, VP-Sr. Analyst - Moody's RatingsHost: Nick Samuels, Senior Vice President, Moody's RatingsRelated content on Moodys.com (may only be available to registered users and subscribers):Public K-12 School Districts – US: Tightening operating environment will challenge a growing minority of districts

Stadium projects are often less financially beneficial than projected for the governments subsidizing them, though a shift toward multipurpose facilities brings the potential for enhanced returns. Guest: Greg Sobel, AVP-Analyst - Moody's RatingsHost: Nick Samuels, Senior Vice President, Moody's RatingsRelated content on Moodys.com (may only be available to registered users and subscribers):States and Local Governments – US: Ballooning stadium subsidies amplify risk amid potential economic development

Higher expenses after a $2.78 billion agreement on student athlete payments pose a credit risk for smaller colleges, which already face rising competition from larger, cheaper institutions.Guests: Patrick Ronk, AVP-Analyst - Moody's Ratings; Nicole Serrano, VP-Sr Credit Officer ­- Moody's RatingsHost: Nick Samuels, Senior Vice President, Moody's RatingsRelated content on Moodys.com (may only be available to registered users and subscribers):Higher Education – US: Settlement in NCAA antitrust cases leads to colleges paying athletes, a credit negativePrivate Colleges and Universities – US: Small institutions in Northeast and Midwest face credit stress as enrollment declines 

Spending cuts of $25 billion will ease the deficit, though out-migration of high earners remains a drag on revenue.  K-12 education will avoid significant cuts, but is vulnerable if the economy slows.Guests: Matt Butler, VP-Sr Credit Officer - Moody's Ratings; Helen Cregger, VP-Sr Credit Officer ­- Moody's RatingsHost: Nick Samuels, Senior Vice President, Moody's RatingsRelated content on Moodys.com (may only be available to registered users and subscribers):California's deficit grows, increasing importance of strong budget solutionsCalifornia school districts are prepared for state budget cuts due to liquidity and strong reserves

As climate issues mount, residents face escalating property insurance costs and, in some cases, difficulty obtaining coverage at all, which threatens to hurt the economy and curtail tax collections.Guests: Bola Kushimo, Vice President - Senior Credit Officer, Moody's Ratings and Denise Rappmund, Vice President - Senior Analyst, Moody's RatingsHost: Nick Samuels, Senior Vice President, Moody's RatingsRelated content on Moodys.com (may only be available to registered users and subscribers):State and Local Government - Louisiana: Climate risks and insurance costs pose challenges for state and local governmentsFlorida (State of):  Florida insurance exposure reaches peak of 1% of GDP as state increasingly supports sectorProperty & Casualty Insurance – US: Homeowners insurers aim to boost profits as weather-related losses, inflation take toll

Local governments face a loss of economic vitality and tax revenue as the working-age population declines. Meanwhile, a tighter labor supply remains a chronic issue for the hospital sector.Guests: Frank Mamo, Vice President - Senior Analyst, Moody's Ratings and Dan Steingart, Vice President - Senior Credit Officer, Moody's RatingsHost: Nick Samuels, Senior Vice President, Moody's RatingsRelated content on Moodys.com (may only be available to registered users and subscribers):Cities and Counties – US: Declining working-age population will constrain revenue and test adaptability

As water shortages threaten to curb economic growth, governments in many parts of the country are stepping up investment in water management and conservation.Guests: Sunny Zhu, AVP – Analyst, Moody's Ratings; Maddie Atkins, Analyst ­- Moody's RatingsHost: Nick Samuels, Senior Vice President, Moody's RatingsRelated content on Moodys.com (may only be available to registered users and subscribers):States – US: Effective management will be crucial in lessening credit risks from water stress

Suspension of commercial shipping in the Suez Canal and reduced activity in the drought-afflicted Panama Canal have the potential to reduce revenue at key US ports.Guest: Moses Kopmar, Vice President – Senior Analyst, Moody's Investors ServiceHost: Nick Samuels, Senior Vice President, Moody's Investors ServiceRelated content on Moodys.com (may only be available to registered users and subscribers):Ports – US: Red Sea shipping disruptions have potential to reduce East Coast cargo volumePorts – US: 2024 Outlook - Stable as cargo volume grows slowly in difficult macro environment

Pension liabilities for large local governments are falling because of higher interest rates. This dynamic — and greater contributions —bodes well for credit quality, though investment risk lingers.Guest: Tom Aaron, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, Moody's Investors ServiceHost: Nick Samuels, Senior Vice President, Moody's Investors ServiceRelated content on Moodys.com (may only be available to registered users and subscribers):Local Government – US: Balance sheet leverage declining for large, pension-heavy local governments

While pandemic pain lingers, our higher education outlook has improved to stable from negative as revenue grows, margins steady and balance sheets remain generally healthy. Guest: Chris Collins, Vice President – Senior Analyst, Moody's Investors ServiceHost: Nick Samuels, Senior Vice President, Moody's Investors ServiceRelated content on Moodys.com (may only be available to registered users and subscribers):Higher Education – US: 2024 Outlook - Revised to stable as revenue growth closes gap on expenses

We have revised our outlook for the US not-for-profit healthcare sector to stable from negative as a recovery takes hold, largely driven by a slowdown in the growth rate of labor costs.Guest: Matt Cahill, Assistant Vice President – Analyst, Moody's Investors ServiceHost: Nick Samuels, Senior Vice President, Moody's Investors ServiceRelated content on Moodys.com (may only be available to subscribers):Not-for-Profit and Public Healthcare – US: 2024 Outlook – Revised to stable as financial recovery gains momentum

States' pension liabilities, a source of credit stress for years, are declining and providing financial flexibility. In England, some local governments are grappling with substantial deficits.Guests: Sunny Zhu, Assistant Vice President – Analyst, Moody's Investors Service and Zoe Jankel, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, Moody's Investors ServiceHost: Nick Samuels, Senior Vice President, Moody's Investors ServiceRelated content on Moodys.com (may only be available to subscribers):States – US: Ability to service long-term liabilities and fixed costs improvesLocal Governments – UK: More to fail as weak governance amplifies the impact of property and rates cycles

With a slower economy in the central business district, the city projects deficits and we've changed our outlook to negative. We've done the same for Bay Area Rapid Transit with its ridership drop.Guests: Joe Manoleas, Assistant Vice President - Analyst, Moody's Investors Service and Maddie Atkins, Analyst, Moody's Investors ServiceHost: Nick Samuels, Senior Vice President, Moody's Investors ServiceRelated content on Moodys.com (may only be available to subscribers):City & County of San Francisco, CA: Update to credit analysis following revision of outlook to negativeSan Francisco Bay Area Rapid Transit District, CA: Update to credit analysis following revision of outlook to negative

States with legal recreational marijuana are generating tax dollars for various needs, but no more than Nevada's 2.5% of state revenue. Policy changes, however, have the potential to boost the amount.Guest: Greg Sobel, Assistant Vice President – Analyst, Moody's Investors ServiceHost: Nick Samuels, Senior Vice President, Moody's Investors ServiceRelated content on Moodys.com (may only be available to registered users and subscribers):State and Local Government – US: Revenue from marijuana sales will remain modest, barring major policy changes

With bankruptcy to shed debt and stay open largely unviable, colleges grappling with falling enrollment and rising costs are increasingly closing. In a shutdown, bondholder outcomes are a wild card with the amount of reserves on hand and value of real estate assets playing a role. Guest: Susan Shaffer, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, Moody's Investors ServiceHost: Nick Samuels, Senior Vice President, Moody's Investors ServiceRelated content on Moodys.com (may only be available to registered users and subscribers):Higher Education – US: Closures, while still rare, will gradually increase even as other options are explored

ChatGPT's rollout has sharpened universities' focus on AI pitfalls such as cheating and benefits like improved educational outcomes. Plus, US ports' cargo volumes are way down, but business models and finances provide stability.Guests: Patrick Ronk, Analyst – Moody's Investors Service and Moses Kopmar, Vice President – Senior Analyst, Moody's Investors ServiceHost: Nick Samuels, Senior Vice President, Moody's Investors Service Related content on Moodys.com (may only be available to registered users and subscribers):Higher Education – Global: Artificial intelligence poses academic integrity risks, but provides opportunity for innovation and efficienciesPublic Ports – US: Outlook still stable but slowing economic growth weighs on cargo demand 

Kevyn Orr, who led Detroit's 2013 bankruptcy filing, weighs in on why the landmark event enabled a turnaround for the city and recounts some of the restructuring's peculiarities, including Renoir's involvement. At Moody's, the bankruptcy marked such an inflection point that it prompted changes in our credit analysis. Naomi Richman, a senior vice president in our Public Finance Group, joins the podcast at about the 22:30 mark to comment on those shifts and other reverberations from the Detroit case, while analyst David Strungis discusses the city's current credit trajectory.Guests: Kevyn Orr, Partner-in-Charge, U.S. Offices, Jones Day; Naomi Richman, Senior Vice President, Moody's Investors Service; David Strungis, Vice President-Senior Analyst, Moody's Investors Service  Host: Nick Samuels – Senior Vice President, Moody's Investors ServiceRelated content on Moodys.com (may only be available to registered users or subscribers): City of Detroit, MI: Update to credit analysis following upgrade to Ba1 positiveDetroit (City of): Dedicated reserve will help Detroit ramp up contributions, but pension costs will spike if assets underperform

With an EPA proposal, US municipal utilities and cities are facing mounting costs to remove toxic PFAS, also known as forever chemicals, from drinking water. Yet the utilities' ability to raise customer rates to recoup costs will limit credit risks. Meanwhile, companies that make the chemicals or products with them are dealing with a barrage of lawsuits similar to what hit Big Tobacco and opioid makers. Guests: Helen Cregger, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, Moody's Investors Service; Ryan Patton, Assistant Vice President – Analyst, Moody's Investors Service; John Rogers, Senior Vice President, Moody's Investors ServiceHost: Nick Samuels, Senior Vice President, Moody's Investors ServiceRelated content on Moodys.com (may only be available to subscribers):ESG – Global: ‘Forever chemicals' present significant credit risk for certain companiesWater and Wastewater Utilities – US:  EPA proposal to reduce ‘forever chemicals' in drinking water will raise costs

Moody's analysts discuss accelerating electric vehicle sales' effects on US auto insurers and auto finance captives, and implications for state fuel taxes. Speakers: Matthias Heck, VP – Senior Credit Officer, Moody's Investors Service; Inna Bodeck, VP – Senior Analyst, Moody's Investors Service; Jasper Cooper – VP – Senior Credit Officer, Moody's Investors Service; Ted Hampton, VP – Senior Credit Officer, Moody's Investors Service Hosts:Nicholas Samuels, Senior Vice President, Moody's Investors Service; Danielle Reed, VP – Senior Research Writer, Moody's Investors Service Related content on Moodys.com/autotransformation (may only be available to registered users or subscribers):Electrification momentum is strong, automakers must invest to stay competitiveUS auto finance captives' evolving portfolios will carry more electric vehicles and greater riskAuto insurers' costs and pricing will rise as electric vehicles grow more popularElectric vehicles raise carbon transition risk for states' highway revenue bonds

Weak investment returns have chipped away at endowment values, but universities manage endowments with expectations of volatility, easing some of the adverse credit effects.Guests: Liz Clark, vice president for policy and research, National Association of College and University Business Officers (NACUBO) and Susan Shaffer, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, Moody's Investors ServiceHost: Nick Samuels, Senior Vice President, Moody's Investors Service

Hospital credit stress is not going away as labor costs, largely driven by a nursing shortage, drive up expenses and capacity constraints squeeze revenue. Guests: Brad Spielman, Vice President - Senior Credit Officer, Moody's Investors Service and Dan Steingart, Vice President - Senior Credit Officer, Moody's Investors ServiceHost: Nick Samuels, Senior Vice President, Moody's Investors Service Related content on Moodys.com (may only be available to registered users or subscribers):Not-For-Profit and Public Healthcare – US: 2023 Outlook - Negative as inflation, labor costs continue to drive expenses higherHospitals – US: Developments to Watch: 2023

The faltering economy threatens to slow growth in travel and cargo volumes, which underpin credit quality for the three infrastructure sectors. All three, however, have strong balance sheets and other advantages that will help them navigate the difficulties. Guests: Ursula Cassinerio, Assistant Vice President – Analyst, Moody's Investors Service and Moses Kopmar, Vice President – Senior Analyst, Moody's Investors ServiceHost: Nick Samuels, Senior Vice President, Moody's Investors ServiceRelated content on Moodys.com (may only be available to registered users or subscribers):Airports – US: 2023 Outlook – Turns stable as capacity constraints, macro conditions limit recoveryToll Roads – US: 2023 Outlook – Turns stable as traffic and revenue growth slow with US economyPublic Ports – US: 2023 Outlook – Turns stable as cargo and volume growth slows with GDP growthPublic Power Electric Utilities – US: 2023 Outlook – Stable as utilities poised to raise rates if needed to cover rising costs

Muniland welcomes New York City's comptroller to discuss the city's first social bond, affordable housing, his push to increase budget reserves and what's next for the city's economy. Guest: Brad Lander, New York City comptrollerHost: Nick Samuels, Senior Vice President, Moody's Investors Service

Macroeconomic conditions, enrollment troubles and muted revenue growth will continue to hinder colleges and universities. For mass transit, a weak ridership recovery and looming end to federal pandemic aid signal more tough times ahead.  Guests: Susan Shaffer, Vice President-Senior Credit Officer, Moody's Investors Service; Jared Brewster, Vice President-Senior Analyst, Moody's Investors Service; Baye Larsen, Vice President-Senior Credit Officer, Moody's Investors Service Host: Nick Samuels – Senior Vice President, Moody's Investors ServiceRelated content on Moodys.com (may only be available to registered users or subscribers):Higher Education – US: 2023 Outlook - Negative as revenue rebound stalls and expenses surgeMass Transit – US: 2023 Outlook – Negative with low ridership and looming federal aid cliff

A one-notch upgrade has Chicago moving into investment grade. The city is set to benefit from a policy calling for greater pension contributions aimed at preventing growth in its unfunded pension burden.  Guests: Rachel Cortez, Associate Managing Director, Moody's Investors Service and David Levett, Vice President – Senior Analyst, Moody's Investors Service Host: Nick Samuels – Senior Vice President, Moody's Investors Service Related content on Moodys.com (may only be available to registered users or subscribers):City of Chicago, IL: Update to credit analysis following upgrade to Baa3 stable

A less-discussed part of the plan, which revamps income-driven undergraduate loan payments, will boost enrollment. Plus, Florida municipal issuers have tools to limit Hurricane Ian credit risks.    Guests: Patrick Ronk, Analyst, Moody's Investors Service; Lauren Von Bargen, Assistant Vice President - Analyst, Moody's Investors Service; Val Gomez, Vice President – Senior Analyst, Moody's Investors ServiceHost: Nick Samuels – Senior Vice President, Moody's Investors ServiceRelated content on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers):Higher Education – US: Student loan forgiveness is mildly positive, but repayment changes offer bigger benefitPublic Finance – Florida: Federal aid, insurance proceeds and liquidity mitigate Hurricane Ian's costs

With flush rainy day funds and flexibility to cut costs, states are poised to avoid credit stress if a severe economic tailspin or even a recession takes hold. Plus, housing finance agencies' credit quality remains strong, but the HFAs face challenges in the current economic environment.Guests: Sunny Zhu, Assistant Vice President-Analyst, Moody's Investors Service; Pisei Chea, Vice President-Senior Analyst, Moody's Investors Service; Rachael McDonald, Associate Managing Director, Moody's Investors Service; Omar Ouzidane, Vice President-Senior Analyst, Moody's Investors ServiceHost: Nick Samuels – Senior Vice President, Moody's Investors ServiceRelated content on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers):States – US: Strong fiscal governance positions states to withstand high inflation, possible recessionStates – US: Debt, pension and OPEB liabilities all up in fiscal 2021State Housing Finance Agencies – US: HFAs are well positioned for continued solid performance in changing market conditions

Inflation stands to increase personnel costs and budget stress for states and municipalities, in part because of competition from the higher-paying public sector. Plus, peak hurricane season arrives amid the elevated inflation, driving up rebuilding costs for governments along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts if they're hit by a major storm.Guests: Dan Kowalski, Analyst – Moody's Investors Service; Thomas Aaron, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, Moody's Investors Service; Emily Raimes – Senior Vice President, Moody's Investors ServiceHost: Nick Samuels – Senior Vice President, Moody's Investors ServiceRelated content on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers):State and Local Government – US: High inflation and employment shortage set to push up compensation costsState and Local Government – US: Rapid employee wage inflation will cause hikes in pension liabilitiesInflation threatens to drive up US hurricane recovery costs

Rising prices are boosting state and local governments' sales tax revenue, lessening their burden from inflation-driven cost increases. Plus, Marcia Van Wagner, who is retiring as a state analyst, speaks about her career path and offers some insight into how today's inflationary environment compares with the turmoil in the 1970s and 1980s.  Guests: Moody's Investors Service; Doug Goldmacher, vice president – US Public Finance, Moody's Investors Service; Marcia Van Wagner, vice president – US Public Finance, Moody's Investors ServiceHost: Nick Samuels, Senior Vice President - US Public Finance, Moody's Investors Service 

Digital currencies provide states and local governments with a means to collect taxes and utility fees, while universities are accepting tuition payments and donations in crypto form. Plus, states are making efforts to ban their municipalities from making ransomware payments, hoping to deter future cyberattacks.      Guests: Greg Sobel, Assistant Vice President - US Public Finance, Moody's Investors Service; Michael Osborn, Vice President - US Public Finance, Moody's Investors Service; Baye Larsen, Vice President - US Public Finance, Moody's Investors ServiceHost: Nick Samuels, Senior Vice President - US Public Finance, Moody's Investors Service  

Recovery patterns in Puerto Rico's bankruptcy-like case resemble large municipal bankruptcies such as Detroit. Also, flood risks threaten to weaken some cities' property tax bases, increase the need for infrastructure investment and disrupt the economy.Guests: Al Medioli, Senior Vice President – Ratings and Process Oversight, Moody's Investors Service; Jennifer Chang, Vice President – Environmental, Social and Governance, Moody's Investors Service; and Bola Kushimo, Vice President – US Public Finance, Moody's Investors ServiceHost: Nick Samuels, Senior Vice President – US Public Finance, Moody's Investors Service

Susan Fitzgerald and Chris Collins of the US Public Finance team discuss enrollment and other revenue challenges affecting higher education. Plus, Ted Hampton discusses how gas tax suspensions will affect states' capacity to pay debt on bonds backed in large part by the suspended taxes.Related content on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers): Higher Education - US: Converging forces will squeeze budgets for many colleges and universitiesHigher Education – US: Macroeconomic factors will influence fall enrollment levels and revenue growthStates – US: Gasoline tax holidays show governance risks for state revenue bonds

Tom Aaron of the US Public Finance team and Madhavi Bokil of the Credit Strategy and Research team examine why states, local governments and other public finance issuers are generally positioned to withstand moderately rising inflation. Plus, Chris Yared and Michael Wertz discuss to what extent federal infrastructure funding will address the 44,000 US bridges in poor condition.  Related content on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers): Public Finance – US: US public finance issuers not immune from pressure if inflation persists past 2022State and Local Government– US: Federal money pours in to improve bridge conditions, but more needed in many statesMacroeconomics – Global: Russia-Ukraine crisis injects new risks into global economic outlookMacroeconomics – US: US labor market strength supports Fed tightening in March

Nansis Hayek and Matt Cahill of the US Public Finance team discuss how the pandemic-driven telehealth surge is helping the challenged healthcare sector. Plus, analysts Baye Larsen and Ted Hampton explain how manufacturing computer chips in Ohio and electric vehicles in Michigan will help the Rust Belt. Related content on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers): Hospitals – US: Developments to watch: 2022State and Local Government – Ohio: Intel plant will give Ohio an economic boost; state aid to ease infrastructure pressureMichigan (State of): GM's BEV manufacturing initiative supports Michigan's auto industry, mitigating carbon transition risk

Marcia Van Wagner of the US Public Finance team discusses reasons behind the falloff in soaring state tax revenue growth, including expired federal pandemic aid and interest rates. Plus, Jennifer Chang, Adebola Kushimo and Coley Anderson weigh in on environmental, social and governance (ESG) issues facing state and local governments and delve into our new simplified way of communicating ESG risks.    Related content on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers): States – US: Surge in tax revenue will moderate as pandemic effects evolveState Government – US: ESG considerations have mostly neutral to low credit impact on US statesLocal Government – US: ESG considerations have neutral to low credit impact on most large US citiesLocal Government – US: ESG considerations have neutral to low credit impact on most large US counties

Kendra Smith of the US Public Finance team discusses why a nursing/labor shortage and difficulties with insurer reimbursement contribute to our negative outlook for the healthcare sector. Plus, Tim Blake and Leonard Jones weigh in on solid tax revenue growth during the pandemic playing a leading role in the stable outlooks for states and local governments. Related content on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers): Not-for-Profit and Public Healthcare – US: 2022 outlook negative as labor costs drive expense growth higherHigher Education – US: 2022 outlook stable as emergence from remote learning supports revenue growthStates – US: 2022 outlook stable as fiscal momentum set to offset lingering economic risksLocal Government – US: 2022 outlook stable with solid revenue growth and influx of federal aid

Matt Cahill and Beth Wexler of the US Public Finance team discuss financial challenges hospitals face from a shortage of nurses and other employees. Plus, Dan Seymour weighs in on how some smaller public finance issuers are recovering from pandemic-driven shutdowns.In this Episode:Matt Cahill and Beth Wexler of the US Public Finance team discuss financial challenges hospitals face from a shortage of nurses and other employees.  (begins at 1:23 mins)Dan Seymour weighs in on how some smaller public finance issuers are recovering from pandemic-driven shutdowns. (begins at 8:41 mins)Related content on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers): Not-for-Profit and Public Healthcare – US: Labor shortage worsens, straining profitability, as Delta and burnout persistHealthcare Quarterly, October 2021Public Finance – US: Municipal delinquencies, reserve fund draws and financial difficulties: Q3 2021

Analyst Earl Heffintrayer of the Project and Infrastructure Finance team discusses how the air traffic recovery is helping US airports and their ability to weather COVID-19 surges. Plus, Eva Bogaty of the US Public Finance team examines prospects for tourism destinations Hawaii and Las Vegas and Tom Aaron weighs in on investment returns reducing pension liabilities for cities and states.In this Episode:Earl Heffintrayer outlines how much of the boost to airports is driven by tourists (begins at 3:22 mins) Eva Bogaty on what the economic consequences will be for major tourist destinations in the event of another COVID surge. (begins at 7:27 mins)Related Content:Airports – US: Traffic recovery stalls past peak leisure travel season; delta variant weighs on fallHawaii (State of): Update to analysis following outlook revision to positiveState and Local Government – US: Huge investment returns set to benefit governments' pension fundingState and Local Government – New York: Steep drop in target return for pension system investments is credit positiveState and Local Government – US: Retiree healthcare obligations remain material for a segment of municipal issuers

Dan Kowalski and Michael Wertz of the US Public Finance team discuss the bill's funding to replace lead service lines and water utilities facing a mix of aging assets and climate change. Plus, Steven Goodman-Leibof and Helen Cregger weigh in on the credit effects of water reductions in Arizona, Nevada and California.Inside this episode:Dan Kowalski and Michael Wertz of the US Public Finance team discuss the bill's funding to replace lead service lines and water utilities facing a mix of aging assets and climate change. (begins at 1:22 mins)Steven Goodman-Leibof and Helen Cregger weigh in on the credit effects of water reductions in Arizona, Nevada and California. (begins at 8:56 mins)Related content:State and Local Government – US: Infrastructure bill would help fund lead service line replacement, a credit positive - The Senate's bipartisan infrastructure bill would provide $15.7 billion to replace lead service lines, benefiting states, cities, utilities and school districts with high exposure.Water Distribution – US: Drought-driven water supply cuts pose long-term risks for utilities in Arizona,California and Nevada - Declining water levels in Lake Mead, a major water reservoir in the West, highlight the long-term environmental risks from accelerating climate change for utilities in drought-prone areas.Municipal Water and Sewer Utilities – US: Climate threats and aging infrastructure portend rising credit risks for many utilities - Escalating infrastructure needs due to aging systems and growing climate challenges expose municipal water and sewer utilities to increased costs, higher debt loads and rising customer ratesEnvironmental Utilities – California: Water utilities prepared for current drought; climate risks will intensify threat over time - California water utilities are generally well prepared to meet challenges as the state's drought continues, but greater investment to combat the effects of climate change will remain key.Jackson (City of) MS: Storm disruption to cost already struggling water and sewer system - A service outage will hurt revenue and bring repair costs for the Jackson water and sewer system, which already faces heightened costs associated with a consent decree and other matters.

David Levett and Ted Hampton of the US Public Finance team delve into Chicago and the State of Illinois' improved prospects despite heavy pension obligations. Also, Sarah Jensen and Al Medioli discuss the lack of pandemic-driven defaults among US public finance credits we rate. Inside this episode:David Levett and Ted Hampton of the US Public Finance team delve into Chicago and the State of Illinois' improved prospects despite heavy pension obligations. (begins at 1:29 mins)Sarah Jensen and Al Medioli discuss the lack of pandemic-driven defaults among US public finance credits we rate. (begins at 8:43 mins)Related content:Chicago (City of) IL: Update to credit analysis following revision of outlook to stable - Our credit view incorporating the city's healthy liquidity, massive economy, very high leverage and recovering revenue.Chicago (City of) IL: Political will to raise revenue, use of federal aid and state actions will drive financial trajectory - Chicago's credit trajectory will be influenced by political will to raise revenue, its use of federal aid and actions taken by the State of Illinois.Local Government – US: Falling rents, remote work uncertainty will hit property tax revenue in some big cities - Office vacancy is rising and rents are falling, which will likely weaken assessed valuation and have varying property tax revenue implications for five large cities.Illinois (State of): Update to credit analysis following upgrade to Baa2 - Our credit view of Illinois, reflecting its sovereign powers over revenue and spending, offset by its very large unfunded pension liabilities that remain on an upward trajectory.US Public Finance: US municipal bond defaults and recoveries, 1970-2020 - This study updates our findings concerning the default, loss and rating transition experience of US municipal bond issuers from 1970 to 2020. 

Emily Raimes of the US Public Finance team discusses the rise in state debt amid COVID-19 and the role borrowing will play as states' infrastructure needs mount. Plus, Joe Manoleas and Val Gomez delve into the potential effects of wildfires in California and hurricanes along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts.Inside this episode:Emily Raimes of the US Public Finance team discusses the rise in state debt amid COVID-19 and the role borrowing will play as states' infrastructure needs mount.  (begins at 2:00 mins)Joe Manoleas and Val Gomez delve into the potential effects of wildfires in California and hurricanes along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts. (begins at 7:52 mins)Related content:State Government – US: Medians - State debt rose 2.5% in 2020, spurred by pandemic-linked borrowing - States' total net tax-supported debt increased to a record last year, but the growth rate was relatively modest despite pandemic-induced borrowings.Local Government – California: Municipalities will withstand credit risks posed by heightened wildfire threat - Despite a potentially devastating fire season, credit risks for local governments we rate are minimal owing to liquidity, tax bases, private insurance, and federal and state emergency aid.State and Local Government – US: Hurricane season starts amid rising costs for recovery; proposed changes in federal support pose risks - As the 2021 hurricane season begins, challenges loom for governments and residents needing to rebuild after storms hit.

Michael Osborn, Heather Correia and Matthew Cahill of the US Public Finance team discuss the increasing cyber threats facing universities, state and local governments, hospitals and transit systems. Also, Pisei Chea weighs in on what recent US Census results signal about states' economic fortunes, while Frank Mamo comments on municipalities' prospects as they emerge from the coronavirus pandemic.  Inside this episode:Michael Osborn, Heather Correia and Matthew Cahill of the US Public Finance team discuss the increasing cyber threats facing universities, state and local governments, hospitals and transit systems. (begins at 1:45 mins)Pisei Chea weighs in on what recent US Census results signal about states' economic fortunes, while Frank Mamo comments on municipalities' prospects as they emerge from the coronavirus pandemic. (begins at 14:51 mins)Related content:State and Local Government – US: Cybersecurity stronger among larger organizations, including states and transitsHigher Education – US: FBI warning for universities underscores vulnerability to cyberattacksHospitals – US: Healthcare cyber risk remains elevated given increasing reliance on technologyInsurance -US: Surge in ransomware claims drives cyber insurance prices higherState Government – US: Population trends underscore state social and economic credit driversLocal Government – US: Uneven economic recovery will shape credit environment for local governments

Baye Larsen and Ken Kurtz of the US Public Finance team discuss how federal aid is buoying mass transit, but that a new normal awaits, with sector-wide ridership settling in below pre-pandemic levels. Plus, Val Gomez and Marcia Van Wagner explain how the pandemic has slowed progress toward gender equality in the labor force with implications for tax revenue and the housing market.Inside this episode:Baye Larsen and Ken Kurtz of the US Public Finance team discuss how federal aid is buoying mass transit, but that a new normal awaits, with sector-wide ridership settling in below pre-pandemic levels. (begins at 1:25) Val Gomez and Marcia Van Wagner explain how the pandemic has slowed progress toward gender equality in the labor force with implications for tax revenue and the housing market. (begins at 11:54)Related content:Mass Transit – US Outlook improves to stable with substantial federal aid and likely rebound in tax revenue - Federal assistance for transit in the 2021 American Rescue Plan Act will offset operating losses driven by low ridership and weak tax collections.Public Finance – US: Covid's hit to women's employment poses economic, social risks across public finance - The pandemic has slowed trends toward gender equality, eroding gains in women's earning potential. The economic and social risks to public finance vary but are credit negative overall.Webinar Series: MAY 18 - JUNE 17 | US Housing & Housing Finance ExecutiveJoin us for a series of spotlight discussions with senior leaders from a range of industries with exposure to the booming US housing market, from financial institutions, home builders and housing REITs, to home improvement retailers, real estate brokers, and housing finance agencies.REGISTER TODAY!  

Ted Hampton of the US Public Finance team discusses how the State of Illinois is weathering COVID-19's financial difficulties while pension obligations continue to weigh on its credit quality. Plus, Earl Heffintrayer and Myra Shankin of the Project and Infrastructure Finance team weigh in on the US airport sector's improving prospects as passenger levels pick up. Inside this episode:Ted Hampton of the US Public Finance team discusses how the State of Illinois is weathering COVID-19's financial difficulties while pension obligations continue to weigh on its credit quality. (begins at 1:36)Earl Heffintrayer and Myra Shankin of the Project and Infrastructure Finance team weigh in on the US airport sector's improving prospects as passenger levels pick up. (begins at 8:23)Related content:Illinois (State of): Update to credit analysis after outlook revision to stableIllinois (State of): Adjusted net pension liability to surpass $300 billion as source of credit stress worsensIllinois (State of): Appeals court ruling allowing challenge to validity of Illinois GO bonds is credit negativeAirports – US: Outlook revised to stable as passenger activity steady as COVID-19 surge wanesAirports - US: Recovery holds amid new travel restrictions as airports continue to restructure debtAirports – US: Airports reach short-term lease agreement extensions with airlines under similar terms

Inside this episode:Matthew Butler and Natalie Claes of the US Public Finance team discuss how better-than-expected revenue and a new wave of federal assistance spurred the outlook changes for US state and local governments in the face of the pandemic.   Related content:States – US Outlook improves to stable amid stronger budgetary picture and federal supportLocal Government – US Outlook changed to stable as revenue conditions improve, federal aid continues

In the inaugural episode of Moody's Talks – Muniland, Pisei Chea and Jared Brewster of the US Public Finance team discuss the effects of federal policies on states and higher education. Also, Susan Fitzgerald and Michael Osborn focus on how the pandemic's upheaval will affect the year ahead for colleges and universities, including enrollment and debt refinancing.Inside this episode:Pisei Chea and Jared Brewster of the US Public Finance team discuss the effects of federal policies on states and higher education. (begins at 1:52)Susan Fitzgerald and Michael Osborn focus on how the pandemic's upheaval will affect the year ahead for colleges and universities, including enrollment and debt refinancing. (begins at 9:10)Related content:Extended public health emergency maintains higher federal funding for states and hospitalsHigher Education: Federal policy changes would have material impact if enacted but prospects uncertainHigher Education – US: Debt strategies provide flexibility amid pandemic; some carry longer-term risksHigher Education – US: 2021 outlook negative as pandemic weakens key revenue streams

Welcome to Muniland! Hosted by Nick Samuels of the US Public Finance team, Muniland delves into the latest developments impacting the credit environment for states, local governments, healthcare, higher education and more. In each episode, Moody's analysts join Nick in exploring the ramifications of the pandemic, climate change, cyber risk, federal policy, pensions burdens and other deep-seated challenges.