Podcasts about dairy prices

Storms amount to a lot of wind but not much rain to help drought-ravaged South Australia, Streaky Bay farmer Suzie Kenny's save our sheep campaign has been delivered to Primary Industries Minister Clare Scriven and there are changes ahead for the beef cattle competition at the Royal Adelaide Show

USDA’s latest dairy forecasts included updates to 2025 production and price outlooks, and the first look at 2026. Rod Bain with USDA has the story. USDA Radio NewslineSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news we are in for a day of significant announcements, but locally and internationally.But first up today, the overnight full dairy auction brought higher prices, up +4.6% in USD terms and up +3.0% in NZD terms. Of note, the butter price hit a new all-time record high of US$74992/tonne. Also, cheddar cheese rose a very sharp +12.0% from the prior full event, and the dominant WMP price was up a heady +6.2%. This has been a very positive outcome, even if it was on relatively low off-season volumes.There seemed to be two big background drivers. First, EU production is slipping and today's NZ auction prices seem to be equalising with European pricing. And secondly, there was a substantial increase in demand from Southeast Asian buyers, shifting from EU supply. Today's result will bring upside to the payout - if it is maintaintained in future events.Elsewhere, there was a good rise in US retail sales last week, up +6.9% from the same week a year ago in the Redbook survey. But as we have noted previously, it is now hard to separate the inflationary effect of the tariff taxes from volume gains. It is about now that the tariff-tax impact will start happening. All eyes are on Apple, because they won't be able to avoid price hikes much longer now.Retaliatory tariff taxes also juiced up US exports in both goods and services in March but it was minor and similar to February. US imports however shot up to a new all-time record high. So the American trade deficit also hit a new record exceeding -$140 bln for the monthNone of this is helping sentiment. The latest survey, this one the RealClearMarkets/TIPP Economic Optimism Index retreated in May from April when a gain was anticipated. It was at its lowest in seven months.Meanwhile, the US logistics managers index returned to more usual levels, but allowing it to do that were rises in inventory and freight costs, rather than the efficiency components.There was a well-supported US Treasury 10 year bond auction earlier today, and that delivered a median yield of 4.28% which was down -6 bps from the prior equivalent event a month ago.Tomorrow will be dominated by the US Fed's meeting outcome. Changed interest rates are unlikely, but there will be intense interest in how they view the present and future economic landscape.In Canada, the widely-watched local Ivey PMI turned into contraction in April.In China, the Caixin Services PMI expansion eased back in April, down from March's three-month high to be below analyst forecasts. This is now the softest expansion in their services sector in seven months. But this Caixin version reported a slightly faster expansion than the official version.There is a lot going on today, and amongst that we are expecting a significant Chinese briefing by their central bank and other regulators about new moves to respond to their economic pressures triggered by the tariff war.In Europe, their April services PMI didn't fall into contraction as expected. Rather it stayed just on the positive side. But it is an anemic expansion all the same.In Australia, household spending slipped in March from February, to be +3.5% higher than March 2024. Of special note was the very sharp -1.3% dive in Queensland.There was an even sharper retreat in building consents in Australia in March with a big -15% dive in consents for building apartments.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.31%, down -3 bps from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$3414/oz, and up +US$101 from yesterday, and heading back towards its April 23 record high.Oil prices are firmer today, up +US$2 at just on US$59/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is now just under US$62.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 60 USc, up +40 bps from yesterday at this time. Against the Aussie we are up +0 bps at 92½ AUc. Against the euro we are up +50 bps at 52.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just under 68 and up +10 bps. The Japanese yen has strengthened to limit the TWI-5 shift.The bitcoin price starts today down a mere -0.3% from yesterday at US$94,563. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at +/- 0.9%.Join us at 10:45am for the release of the important March quarter jobs report for New Zealand. We are expecting no rise in employment and a rise in the unemployment rate to 5.3%. Variations from that might be market-moving.And then at 2pm we will be covering the RBNZ's half-yearly Financial Stability Report. This will be Christian Hawkesby's first big set piece presentation as Governor, a role he holds until at least October.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news negative data is starting to flow more aggressively in the US as the consequences of dumb policy show through. It been a track to decline for the first 100 days of Trump II.First, the US Redbook index of retail sales rose +6.1% last week from the week before, but the strong suspicion is that much of this is inflation-related.And that is supported by a sharp drop in consumer sentiment reported by the Conference Board, down to a 13 year low in April and confirming the UofM earlier sentiment survey.US job openings fell by -288,000 to 7.192 mln in March, down -901,000 from a year ago to the lowest level in six months and well below market expectations of 7.5 mln. The drop was broad-based. Their quit rate rose to an 8 month high.The US trade deficit in goods widened sharply to -US$162 bln in March, the largest on record, and well above the expected -US$146 bln gap as tariff threats drove US importers to front-load their purchases. Unsurprisingly, that alos generated a spike in wholesale inventories.This bad trade result probably cements a very weak Q1-2025 GDP result. The next AtlantaFed GDP Now update will come tomorrow, and is unlikely to be pretty.The Dallas Fed's services sector survey pointed to weaker conditions and a weaker outlook.The Canadian election has resulted in a narrow win for the center-left (in North American terms) Liberals and the Quebec coalition partner. This is an unusual fourth consecutive win for the Liberals, and an unlikely one, very much aided by Trump trolling. It will be a tough gig because they are clearly facing recession, also flowing from the newly-fractious US relationship.The ECB survey on consumer inflation expectations in the euro-zone rose in March with the year ahead expectation up to 2.9%, its highest in a year.EU consumer sentiment dropped in March and to its lowest since December.And we should probably note that Denmark says it wants the EU to join the CPTPP.In Australia, there are three days left of campaigning in their federal election. Polling is tightening. Despite those polls still showing Labour ahead, much will depend on how voters rank their preferences, which could make it rather close.The overnight dairy Pulse auction came in better than the futures market signaled. The SMP price rose as expected and to its highest in a year, but the WMP price did not fall as expected, rather it showed a small gain and to its highest in three years.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.17%, down another -4 bps from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$3319/oz, and down -US$17 from yesterday.Oil prices are down -US$1.50 at just on US$60.50/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is down a bit less, now just under US$64.50/bbl. These are two-week lows as global trade tensions and weak US data dampened the demand outlook.The Kiwi dollar is now at 59.4 USc, down -0.2% from yesterday at this time. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 93 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 52.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just on 67.6 and down -10 bps.The bitcoin price starts today up +1.3% from yesterday at US$95,401. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at +/- 0.9%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news reality and expectations seem to be diverging.But first up today we can report that the weekly dairy Pulse auction for SMP and WMP brought little-change in the WMP price from the previous full GDT auction in USD, while the SMP price rose +3.0% on that same basis, but basically a recovery. However things are reversed in NZD due to the weaker greenback, with the WMP price falling -1.4% and the SMP price only up +1.7% in our currency.Internationally, the IMF warned that rising US tariffs are marking the start of a new global era of slower growth. Since January, sweeping import duties and retaliation are raising trade barriers to levels not seen since the Great Depression. The IMF cut its global growth forecast for 2025 to +2.8% from +3.3%, and sees continued weakness through 2026. The US will be among the hardest hit, with 2025 growth cut to +1.8% from +2.7%. Others like Mexico, Canada, China, and the EU will feel some effects but are likely to be minor compared to the US.Meanwhile, the US Treasury Secretary has told a private meeting the tariff war is unsustainable and will ease 'soon'. News of these remarks has led to a financial market rally. The problem remains however as neither Trump or China show any signs of backing down, and Bessent himself admitted that talks to de-escalate haven't even started. Markets might be getting ahead of themselves, as is Bessent.In the US, the Redbook retail impulse monitor was up +7.4% last week from the same week a year ago, the highest since the end of 2022. But this is becoming more of a measure of inflation than real sales activity as the tariff-taxes get passed through.The Richmond Fed's factory survey for the mid-Atlantic states reported weak results. It plummeted to -13 in April from -4 in the previous month, and well below market expectations. It is the sharpest decline in factory activity since November. Meanwhile their service sector gauge fell too.The latest and large US Treasury bond auction saw less support, but more than sufficient. However the median yield fell back to 3.74%, compared to the 3.94% at the prior equivalent event a month ago.Canadian producer prices rose +4.7% in the year to March, but they are rising at a quicker pace in recent months. Canada is in its final week of election campaigning.Across the Pacific, Taiwanese export orders rose to the elevated level of US$53 bln in March, but they have been doing this for so long now that the year-on-year gain isn't special for them, 'only' up +12.5%.In the EU, consumer sentiment fell more than expected in April to its lowest level since November 2023.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.39%, a -1 bp dip from this time yesterday. The price of gold will start today at US$3398/oz, and down -US$19 from yesterday.Oil prices have risen +US$1 from yesterday to be now just under US$64/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is now just on US$67.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 59.8 USc, down -20 bps from yesterday at this time. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 93.7 AUc. Against the euro we up +20 bps at just on 52.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today now just on 68 and little-changed from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$91,488 and up +5.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been moderate at +/- 2.6%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Here's your local news for Tuesday, March 18, 2025:We get the details on a new study examining the homicide rates for Indigenous women and girls,Meet a self-described "policy wonk" who's running for city council,Examine the economic pain looming for the dairy industry,Check in with a local Farm to School program,Outline the challenges of treating animals that are bonded for life,And much more.

Dairy farmers are being urged to pay down debt while they're in a good position to do so. Fonterra's already forecasting a midpoint of $10 this season. Industry organisation Dairy NZ expects the situation to continue, forecasting a payout above $10 next season. DairyNZ Head of Economics Mark Storey told Mike Hosking it's a good chance to clear debt while payouts are rising, and interest rates are falling. He says farmers have been making repayments in the last few seasons, and they should continue to do so. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Prices have been good for dairy producers, including milk.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news inflation is still not beat and the new tariff wars are messing with when that might happen.First up today, there was another dairy auction, and this one came in weaker than the derivatives markets had anticipated. Prices slipped overall by -0.6% in USD terms and by -1.5% in NZD terms. It was a much lower SMP price that was the surprise undershoot, down -2.5% from the prior event and last week's Pulse event. Cheddar cheese also took a -3.4% tumble, whereas the WMP price was only -0.2% lower than the last event, but it didn't fall as much as the derivatives market anticipated. Going the other way, there was a -2.2% rise in the butter price, taking it to almost matching its record high in June 2024. It is at its record high in NZD. Overall, of note today, "North Asia" (ie China) returned with renewed demand to be the top buyer, after largely sitting on the sidelines recently.In the US, the New York region factory survey turned from a negative to a positive expansion in February, a continuation of an improving trend that started in early 2024 but one that has been volatile.But their national survey of house builders turned more cautious in February, hurt by tariff-talk and the expected resulting inflation.In Canada they reported January CPI inflation, and that came in at 1.9% and pretty much as expected. But the "trimmed mean" core rate came in at 2.7%, the one the Bank of Canada follows, above the December level of 2.6% and well above the expected 2.5% level. This is going the wrong way for them and they may now skip the expected March rate cut.We should probably note that German business sentiment rose in February, ahead of this weekend's federal elections, on the hope that a new government won't get stuck in coalition paralysis. More broadly, EU business sentiment is rising too.The Reserve Bank of Australia cuts its policy rate by -25 bps to 4.1%, much as expected by financial markets, citing progress on getting inflation down towards its target range. It was their first cut since 2020. But it was a hawkish cut, and post-election there may not be any more until the clear inflation pressures ease, especially those expected from the looming tariff war. Despite that, financial markets are still pricing in at least two more rate cuts in 2025.The UST 10yr yield is at 4.54%, up +5 bps from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at just under US$2931/oz and up +US$33 from yesterday.Oil prices are up +50 USc at just over US$71.50/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is now at US$75.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 57 USc and down -40 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -30 bps at 89.8 AUc. Against the euro we are down -20 bps at 54.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just over 66.9, and down -30 bps from this time yesterday and has been among the largest devaluers over the past 24 hours.The bitcoin price starts today at US$94,789 and down another -0.7% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at +/- 1.1%.Join us at 2pm this afternoon for full coverage of the RBNZ's Monetary Policy Statement. And before that, we will have the January REINZ results at 9am.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news it doesn't look like our trading partners are going to be that helpful getting us out of recession.This week we will be watching for the Selected Prices inflation indications on Friday. And financial markets will be doing their final jostling for the following week's set of monetary policy decisions, first from the RBA on the Tuesday of that week, and the RBNZ the next day. But this coming week the US will release its CPI and PPI reports, and the Fed will face a partisan Congress to explain the Monetary Policy Report they released over this past weekend. India will release updated inflation data, and the EU its Q4 GDP growth result. And this week a set of sentiment surveys will be released in Australia.Over this weekend there were some major releases from the US.First, the Fed released its semi-annual Monetary Policy Report. Although it got almost no wider media coverage, it does point to some very interesting stresses they are going to have to work their way through. And they are issues that could have global consequences. While they see banks having 'ample' liquidity at present (previously they saw 'abundant' levels, so a shift), in fact as a proportion of their economy it is historically low. If banks have low liquidity, that puts the Fed in a tough spot if it want to keep shrinking its balance sheet. The Fed's 'normalisation' is an economic tightening process that only works without consequences if the banking system has excess liquidity. When that shrinks, as it seems it is, then overall low liquidity could jerk benchmark interest rates higher. Something will give, and the Fed may have to stop its QT process. Announcing that is a big market signal and this MPR suggests it is close.Secondly, total US consumer credit surged by almost +US$41 bln in December, far exceeding the forecasted +US$$12 bln. In fact it was the largest increase in the history of this metric. Revolving credit, which includes credit cards and personal lines of credit, jumped by +US$23 bln. Meanwhile, non-revolving credit, which covers car loans and student debt, increased by +US$18 bln. The overall +2.4% year-on-year rise suggests consumers are only modestly taking on more debt however, similar to inflation's rise. Third, US January non-farm payrolls growth came in less that expected, up +144,000 when the average of market estimates was +170,000. In 2024 that would have been regarded as a "big miss'.The data collectors said that wildfires in LA and severe winter weather in other parts of the country, had “no discernible effect” on employment in the month.Their jobless rate ticked down to 4.0% and average weekly earnings rose +4.2% from a year ago, so overall a mixed picture.And fourth, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey for February fell from January and quite sharply. It's the second straight month of retreat and is now its lowest reading since July 2024. Both the 'conditions' and 'expectations' measures fell. There was also a large slide in buying conditions for durables, in part due to a perception that it may be too late to avoid the negative impact of their tariff policy. In addition, inflation expectations for the year ahead soared to 4.3%, the highest since November 2023, from 3.3%. This is only the fifth time in 14 years we have seen such a large one-month rise in year-ahead inflation expectations. Many consumers appear worried that high inflation will return within the next year.Not only is this measure of sentiment down in February from January (-4.6%), it is down even more sharply from February a year ago (-12%).And it is not going to get better. Trump is signaling 'reciprocal tariffs' on many countries, also expected to raise costs for Americans. It will be a major international escalation. No indication here on how that will affect New Zealand that basically doesn't have any tariffs with anyone. (In his alternate reality, he may just invent that we have some, of course.)An uncertain and fearful American middle class may have a much bigger impact on the global economy than even their new public policy direction. Of course the two are related.North of the border, Canada turned in a very strong jobs report again, it's second consecutive big gain. +76,000 new jobs were added in January, far higher than the +25,000 expected. Their jobless rate fell to 6.6%. Of course, this too is much more uncertain when looking ahead, for the same US-based reasons.As the New Zealand dairy industry knows, Canada has an [illegal] trade protection scheme operating for its dairy industry, a system of "supply management". Their industry leaders "don't think it [is] being threatened" in the current stoush with the US.And while we are reporting about dairy, we should note that American milk consumption rose +3.2% in 2024 while artificial 'plant milk' consumption fell -5.9% in the year. (Source.) That happening at a time when US milk production is steady (+0.7%) will no doubt create some interesting market supply stresses. But these signals may turn that around in the next season. The cost of feed for the mostly barn-housed industry will be the main indicator of how enthusiastic the response will be.Japan is reporting that household spending jumped in December and by very much more than anticipated. It was up +2.7% in December from November when only a +0.5% rise was anticipated. That large monthly shift now means that the year-on-year rise is +2.3%. If Japanese consumers are opening their wallets, it is both a sign that sentiment is rising, and it will be some counterbalance to the US ructions and the Chinese slowdown. We should not forget that Japan is the world's fourth largest economy, larger than India. It is similarly important for New Zealand exports.India cut its policy rate by -25 bps to 6.25%, its first cut since April 2020. Their forecasts indicate rising growth and falling inflation. Although that will be what PM Modi wants to hear, they may be 'brave' forecasts. But they are juicing up the stimulus, with this rate cut part of a two-part action to compliment last week's income tax cuts.In China, their January CPI inflation is meandering close to zero, although it picked up to +0.5% from a year ago in this latest update, and that was because of the +0.7% rise in the month from December. So perhaps they have avoided deflation - in this official data at least. But beef prices were little changed month-on-month but down -13% from a year ago. Lamb priced were up marginally, to be -5.6% lower than a year ago. Their milk prices fell rather sharply in January, taking the annual dip to -1.7%. China's producer prices remained disinflationary, down -2.3% year-on-year.China said its official reserves rose marginally in January, now at US$3.2 tln. US$769 bln of that is US Treasury debt, and falling (Nov-24). (Those holdings may now be lower than those the UK holds in US Treasuries.)Global world food prices were little-changed in January and are still running lower than a year ago. There was a small dip in sheepmeat prices, a rise in beef prices, and big rise in dairy prices. In fact dairy prices are now at two year highs, but are still -10% lower than when they peaked in June 2022.The UST 10yr yield is at 4.50%, up +5 bps from Saturday at this time. The price of gold will start today at US$2860/oz and little-changed from Saturday. But this is up +US$50/oz from a week ago. In between, gold hit its record high of US$2883/oz. Also note, China is now allowing its insurers to 'invest in gold'.Oil prices are little-changed at just on US$71/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is still at US$74.50/bbl. But these levels are -US$1.50 lower than week-ago levels.The Kiwi dollar is now at 56.6 USc and up +10 bps from this time Saturday.  Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 90.2 AUc. Against the euro we are also unchanged at just under 54.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just on 66.9, and the same as on Saturday, down -30 bps from a week ago.The bitcoin price starts today at US$96,463 and a minor -0.3% slip from this time Saturday. And it is -6.8% lower than this time last week. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at +/- 0.8%. And we should note that El Salvador has ended its experiment where bitcoin was legal tender. It isn't anymore.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news it remains unclear what happens next after the chaotic round of US tariffs on their closest trade partners, and then their unexpected suspension.But first up this morning, we can report a strong dairy auction result, with prices up +3.7% in USD terms and up +4.0% in NZD terms. The key WMP price was up +4.1% in USD terms and is now sitting much higher than the anticipated US$4000 level. There were a couple of key factors at play today. First, despite rising NZ production, the volume of product on offer was down, and along with lower US and Australian milk production, there is a supply squeeze. And secondly, there was strong pre-Ramadan buying although not so much from China as anticipated. Where each component has landed can be checked in our dual-currency charts that also interleave the Pulse results for SMP and WMP as well. There are some new high benchmarks achieved today, especially the WMP price in NZD.And, yes, the strength of this auction will have analysts reassessing their payout forecasts. But they will probably hold back because of where we are in the season. However, the base is now quite strong.US job openings fell by -556,000 to 7.6 million in December, to a lot less than anticipated and indicating a definite cooling of the American labour market. Clearly employers were uncertain about how the post-election landscape would play out. And this came well before the aggressive purging of Federal government jobs now underway.Perhaps worse, new orders for manufactured goods sank -0.9% in December from November, extending the revised -0.8% drop in the previous month, and firmly below market expectations of a lesser decline. It was the sharpest monthly drop since June.But retail sales were up +5.7% last week from the same week a year ago on a same-store basis and that was an improvement. However you have to wonder whether this rise was motivated by buying ahead of expected price rises flowing from the signaled tariff increases.Surging inventory levels has seen the US Logistics Manager's Index jump in January from December to its fastest expansion of the logistics since June 2022. Underlying growth and the uncertainty surrounding trade regulations, particularly the tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China, drove the defensive inventory moves.On the trade war front, the US delayed its tariff imposition in both Mexico and Canada by a month, but China set in motion is retaliation, a mixture of its own countervailing tariffs especially on coal, oil and natural gas, plus major 'investigations' of Google, Nvidia and Intel. It also banned exports of some key minerals. But analysts thing there is more symbolism here than hard penalties. They are being saved for later in the game.In Canada, consumer boycotts may have a bigger effect than official retaliation. Other major economies are also readying their retaliation, including Japan and the EU. If all of them act in unison, the impact of just these five big trading blocs will be substantial for the US (and themselves of course).China thinks it can win the trade war with the US just by letting the yuan sink. In fact, all currencies vs the USD are falling. That way imports become cheaper for US buyers, and US exports become more expensive (and less attractive) to overseas customers. It is lose-lose for the US. Trump is fighting natural market forces with unnatural tariffs.Join us at 10:45am this morning when we will report the Q4-2025 unemployment rate. Markets expect it to have risen to 5.1% from the Q3 4.8%. Any variance from that will have implications for the February OCR review due on the 18th of this month.The UST 10yr yield is at 4.52%, unchanged from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at US$2840/oz and up +US$23 from yesterday and another new record high.Oil prices are virtually unchanged again at just on US$72.50/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is now US$76/bbl and a tad firmer.The Kiwi dollar is now at 56.2 USc and up +20 bps from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -20 bps at 90.3 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at just on 54.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just on 66.9, and up +20 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$99,502 and up another minor +0.6% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at +/- 2.2%.We should finally note that tomorrow (Thursday, February 6, 2025) is a public holiday in New Zealand and there won't be a Breakfast Briefing edition. It will return on Friday.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Friday.

The cost of dairy is climbing for consumers - the Global Dairy Trade auction seeing a 1.4% across the board. Why are the prices continuing to trend up? Infometrics Principal Economist Brad Olsen discusses this with Ryan Bridge. LISTEN ABOVE. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The dairy sector's upbeat heading into the new year. Dairy prices are up 1.4% at the latest Global Dairy Trade auction, while Fonterra's still predicting farmgate milk prices to reach a record $10.50 midpoint this year. New Zealand's milk production in 2024 was also the highest in five years. Fonterra co-operative council chair, John Stevenson told Ryan Bridge it's looking really positive from an on-farm perspective. He says supplementary feed supplies, silage, and crops have had a good start to summer. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the dominated by Trump's shows of 'power' and theatrics. Toxic tech-bro masculinity is on full display. Senior female leaders are getting the chop or side-lined. But so far, also backtracks on trade threats. So we will stand back to await any real impacts.But first up today, there was another full dairy auction today and it was a modestly positive one, although volumes sold were seasonally lower, the least since July 2024. Overall prices rose +1.4% from the last full auction two weeks ago, and perhaps the detail is more interesting than the overall result. WMP was up +5.0%, SMP was up +2.0%, and both butter and cheddar cheese had better than +2% rises from that last full auction. That takes the WMP price to its highest since June 2022. Stronger demand from China is part of the reason for today's rise, but better demand out of Europe helped too. In NZD terms, overall prices were up only +1.0% as the NZD rose and is higher than two weeks ago.From the US, the flurry of Presidential executive orders is creating an opening for China to lead some key global initiatives, from health and the WHO, to climate change. While the US is becoming more isolationist, China is finding openings to be less so. The world's power blocs are getting new boundaries.In Canada, their December CPI data brought few surprises, up 1.8% when a 1.9% rise was expected. But overall December prices actually fell from November and by slightly more than anticipated. Some sales tax relief had a part to play as well. With this result, inflation remained within or below the Bank of Canada's midpoint target 2% for the fifth consecutive month, adding to current expectations of further rate cuts this year. They next review that official rate on Thursday next week NZT and their current rate is 3.25%. But trade relations with their suddenly unfriendly southern neighbour will dominate how they approach this.In China, 15 of their 31 regional governments have set growth targets for 2025 less than they had for 2024. Only one raised its target. Basically soft domestic demand and an uncertain global trade outlook is motivating the pullbacks.In Germany, any green shoots they may have been seeing have been snuffed out by households in defensive mode. The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment fell in January from December, and by more than expected as inflationary pressure perceptions persist. But to be fair, this sentiment index is still positive, and has been since October, just less so.Later this morning, we will get the December REINZ results, and the Q4-2024 New Zealand inflation result. The RBNZ's February 19 OCR review will be influenced by that.The UST 10yr yield is now at just on 4.58%, and unchanged from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$2740/oz and up +US$33 from yesterday.Oil prices are unchanged at just over US$76.50/bbl in the US although the international Brent price is down -50 USc to now just on US$79.50.The Kiwi dollar starts today just under 56.6 USc and unchanged from this time yesterday and holding its recent gain. Against the Aussie we unchanged at 90.4 AUc. Against the euro we are also unchanged at 54.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just on 67.1 and again unchanged from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$105,307 and down -1.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been high at +/- 3.3%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Chemical Weed Control Guide for 2025 What is On a Meat Label? Dairy Prices   00:01:05 – Chemical Weed Control Guide for 2025: Starting today's show is Sarah Lancaster, K-State weed specialist, previewing the 2025 Chemical Weed Control Guide. She mentions what has changed and has been included and is not included. 2025 Chemical Weed Control Guide   00:12:05 – What is On a Meat Label?: Erin Beyer, assistant professor of sustainable meat science and industry at K-State, keeps the show rolling as she explains what can be found on meat labels. Meat Product Labeling and Marketing - K-State USDA Labels   00:23:05 – Dairy Prices: K-State dairy specialist Mike Brouk looks at dairy prices for the last few months of 2024 to end today's show. He says what it may mean for Kansas dairy farms moving forward in 2025.     Send comments, questions or requests for copies of past programs to ksrenews@ksu.edu.   Agriculture Today is a daily program featuring Kansas State University agricultural specialists and other experts examining ag issues facing Kansas and the nation. It is hosted by Shelby Varner and distributed to radio stations throughout Kansas and as a daily podcast.   K‑State Research and Extension is a short name for the Kansas State University Agricultural Experiment Station and Cooperative Extension Service, a program designed to generate and distribute useful knowledge for the well‑being of Kansans. Supported by county, state, federal and private funds, the program has county Extension offices, experiment fields, area Extension offices and regional research centers statewide. Its headquarters is on the K‑State campus in Manhattan

A slight increase in milk production could mean decent price margins.

The U.S. dairy industry typically sees a bump in the prices of cheese and butter in the Fall, thanks to football season and the upcoming holidays.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news of an unexpected development in South Korea.But first, dairy prices edged up slightly again in this morning's latest full dairy auction, but that doesn't really tell the story of this event properly. With the local milk production season now past its peak, lesser volumes were on offer. And buyers seem to have already stocked up for Christmas and Chinese New Year. So it will be no surprise to know that most commodities slipped in price today - apart from a +4.1% surge in the WMP price. Almost alone, this twisted the overall index to a +1.2% rise in USD terms, and a +1.6% rise in NZD termsIn the US last week there was something of a surge in retail sales with the benchmark Redbook index rising 7.4% from the same week a year ago. Buying before Trump's tariff-tax seems to be becoming a thing. Black Friday was in both weeks, this year and last year.Also rising more than expected were US job openings in the US. Their JOLTS report seems to show that October data ends a longish easing in the rising in hiring. It also shows that employees are less afraid to quit to find another job.And more optimism is found in the RealClear Markets/TIPP survey for November.And the US logistics industry seems to be settling into a positive phase with another good expansion in November.Across the Pacific, we should not a rather stunning development in South Korea, our fourth largest trading partner. Martial law has been declared by their embattled President. It seems the 'anti-state forces' he is battling are internal ones in labour unions. Even members of his own party are opposing the declaration. Apparently his wife is a key influencer in this decision. His move looks very uncertain at this time, and legislators have voted against the move.The South Korean currency, the Won, fell hard, back near GFC and Asian Financial Crisis levels.In China, State media is talking up the rise in real estate sales transactions, both by households in some cities, and by developers.And later today in Paris, French legislators will vote on whether to topple the Barnier government.And later today, the Aussie will release their Q3-2024 GDP result - which is expected to show a +1.1% expansion from the same quarter a year ago. That would be about the lowest since the pandemic.The UST 10yr yield is now at just on 4.20%, up +2 bps from yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$2650/oz and up +US$10 from this time yesterday.Oil prices are +US$2 higher at US$70/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is +US$1.50 higher at just over US$73.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar starts today at 58.8 USc and unchanged from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we down -20 bps at 90.8 AUc. Against the euro we have dipped -10 bps to 55.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 68.3, and down -10 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$95,045 and down -1.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has remained modest at +/- 1.5%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news dairy prices are still rising.We got an increase in dairy prices at the overnight GlobalDairyTrade auction from the prior event, but it was a small pullback from prices at last week's Pulse event. Overall prices were up +1.9% in USD terms, up +3.6% in NZD terms, so a good result. WMP let the rises with a +3.2% gain, but the main pullbacks were in the cheeses with cheddar down -3.1% and mozzarella down -6.6%. SMP rose +0.9% from the prior full event but was down -1.1% from last week's Pulse event.This is still a good result and will probably encourage some analysts to update their new season payout forecasts, just as BNZ analysts did last week. The possibility of a $10/kgMS payout is still in play after these results.Holding the WMP prices up is the unexpectedly sticky fall in Chinese milk production (due to low profitability) and a rather steep and unexpected fall in their WMP inventories. This will underpin WMP demand for a while and rising New Zealand production will bring a virtuous tone to the party as well.In the US, although the average American voter may have voted 'negative', they are acting 'positive' in their spending with the Redbook retail sales growth up +5.1% last week from the same week a year ago. And those sort of gains are what giant Walmart is racking up. (Presently, these gains are essentially volume gains. But of course, if the US gets aggressive tariffs, price rises will drive these numbers higher with inflation.)US housing starts hit a bump in the road in October, down -3.1% to just over a +1.3 mln starts (annualised rate), but the fall was because construction activity fell sharply in the South due to their hurricanes. Obviously that will recover soon for the same reason. But in the background it is generally challenging for house builders because mortgage interest rates are remaining high. Still, sales at a 1.3 mln is about average for 2024.A big question hangs over the US housing markets, both for new and used houses. The incoming Administration seems committed to quitting the two big institutions that make the market for 30 year fixed mortgages, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. They tried in the last Trump Administration and were thwarted by Congress, but they seem more determined this time. If that happens it will be an earthquake for housing finance in the US, and probably be the demise of their unique long-term fixed rates.September data released yesterday by the US Treasury shows a huge inflow of foreign funds into the US. There was +US$341 bln of private net flows in the month, plus another +US$57 bln by "official" (government) transactions. This is easily the largest single monthly inflow ever. (For reference, the US Federal Government deficit averaged -US$153 bln monthly in the year to September.)Canadian CPI inflation was up +2.0% in October, a blip up from September's +1.9%. Their food prices were up +2.7% within that, rents up +7.3%. But these were offset by much lower energy costs.After growing rather well in the April to August months, Malaysian export growth as pulled back in September and October with only modest changes. Malaysian import growth is pulling back too, but it this is still expanding at twice the export growth rate.In Hong Kong, the clampdowns on freedoms of expression are getting fiercer. And it is no longer 'legal' to mention Jimmy Lai, let along the umbrella freedom protests.And China is moving to make it an offense to operating in financial markets unless pricing is "rational".In India, they are again battling seasonal air pollution, and it is particularly bad this year, especially in the north.The UST 10yr yield is now at just on 4.39% and down -6 bps from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at US$2623/oz and up another +US$13 from this time yesterday.Oil prices are little-changed, still at US$69/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is still just on US$73/bbl.The Kiwi dollar starts today at 59 USc and up +30 bps from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 90.5 AUc. Against the euro we up +20 bps at 55.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 68.6, and up another +10 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$92,318 and up +0.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at +/- 1.7%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news that is surprisingly positive today.Even though there are likely large influences on New Zealand from events halfway around the world, there are some locally too. Later this morning the Q3-2024 labour market report will be released. And we will have full coverage. But before that we have had another dairy auction, and this one will have analysts reaching for their pencils. It was a good one, with overall prices rising +4.8% in USD terms, up +6.2% in NZD terms. That takes them to their best level since late 2022.The gains were widespread, led by butter's +8.3% jump. Demand out of China is the extra push this market got, and it could well bring upside to farm-gate payout forecasts. In the background, animal health concerns in both the US and EU, and weak domestic raw milk prices in China, are driving lower production expectations globally, just when New Zealand production is in an expansion state.But the economic good news didn't stop there.The Redbook tracking of retail sales in the US delivered a +6.0% rise last week from the same week a year ago. That was its best since mid 2022.The American logistics report for October revealed a small rise from a strong September, taking this index to its best expansion since September 2022. Growth is increasing at an increasing rate in all the right metrics.The ISM services PMI for October was sharply positive too, and its most expansionary level since August 2022. Encouragingly, this sharp turnaround was driven by strong new order growth. This survey basically confirmed the expansion in the S&P/Markt services PMI version and its drive in new order growth.US merchandise exports slipped slightly in September from August, but we need to recall that the August level was a record high - and that Boeing's strikes and production woes will have had an effect here. US imports were strong, as you would expect with most sectors of their economy firing on all cylinders.We should note that the strike at Boeing is over, with a startling +44% pay hike over four years (+38% plus compounding). The catch-up will no doubt drive future export results.There was a well-supported UST 10yr bond auction earlier this morning, and that delivered a yield of 4.29%, which compares with the 4.01% at the equivalent event a month ago.Not to be outdone, the Canadian services PMI turned up sharply to expansion as well, also driven by new order growth.In China, the October Caixin services PMI largely mirrored the official version, but recording a better expansion than the official version, in a better-than-expected result.In Australia, as expected their was no change by the RBA to their policy interest rate. But they warned that another interest rate rise was still a possibility, conceding they had been surprised by the scale of the rise in government spending. They are also surprised that housing demand is staying up, despite their highish interest rates.The UST 10yr yield is now at just on 4.34% and up +4 bps from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$2738/oz and up +US$5 from yesterday.Oil prices are up almost +US$1 at US$72.50/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is now at US$76/bbl.The Kiwi dollar starts today at 60 USc and up another +20 bps from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -30 bps at 90.5 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 55 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 68.7, littel-changed from yesterday at this time.The bitcoin price starts today at US$70,108 and up +3.5% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.8%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news China is dusting off some unused regulations to shore up its deteriorating financial situation.But first, at the overnight dairy auction, prices were little-changed, down -0.2% in USD terms but up +2.8% in NZD terms. The dominant WMP price was essentially unchanged, but the foodservice commodities like SMP were down -1.8%, mozzarella down -8.2% and butter down -0.3%. Going the other way, cheddar cheese was up +4.2% and the only bright spot. No farm gate payout forecasts will be changed because of this event.Last week's US retail impulse survey shows a strong rise of +5.6% from a year ago. And this is not only well ahead of inflation, it is built on a strong +4.6% gain in the same week a year ago.Meanwhile, American consumer inflation expectations in September were little-changed at 3% for the year ahead. In fact consumer labour market and household finance expectations are largely stable too. Given it is an election period with its share of weirdness, perhaps this is not quite the result you might have expected.But it is not all good. Business activity contracted modestly in New York State, according to firms responding to the October 2024 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. After climbing into positive territory last month, the headline general business conditions index retreated rather sharply. New order levels fell, and shipments edged lower.Canada's CPI inflation rate fell to 1.6% in September, from 2.0% in August. It is now at its lowest level since February 2021. Lower fuel costs drove the retreat. It seems more likely now that Canada's central bank will cut its 4.25% policy rate when it next meets on Thursday, October 24 (NZT). Maybe outsized cuts are coming there.Japan industrial production is becoming quite volatile with big jumps followed by bit dips. The August data revealed a big dip, year-on-year. It is hard to know what to make of this new volatility. But overall it represents a sag.In a bit of a surprise, EU industrial production jumped in August and by enough to take the year-on-year level above August 2023, a rare event. It was the best month-on-month jump in more than a year. The European service sector is doing better and enabling local factories with more orders.In China, Bloomberg is reporting that tax authorities there are cracking down on offshore income earned by their wealthy. It has begun enforcing a long-overlooked tax on overseas investment gains. Some wealthy individuals in major Chinese cities were told in recent months to conduct self-assessments or summoned by tax authorities for meetings to evaluate potential payments, including those in arrears from past years, they reported. The move underscores growing urgency in Beijing to expand its sources of revenue as land sales tumble and growth slows.And we probably should note that those grain commodity price falls we noted yesterday have gathered steam today.The UST 10yr yield is now at just on 4.04% and down -8 bps from yesterday. The price of gold will start today at US$2661/oz and up +US$14 from this time yesterday.Oil prices are down a sharpish -US$3.50 at just on US$70.50/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is now just under US$74.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar starts today at 60.8 USc and down -10 bps from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are little-changed at 90.7 AUc. Against the euro we are also little-changed at 55.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today now just over 69.2, and marginally lower from yesterday at this time.The bitcoin price starts today at US$67,003 and up another +1.9% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at under +/- 2.4%.Join us at 10:45am today when we will have full coverage of the Q3-2024 New Zealand CPI result, a crucial factor in setting monetary policy.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead all eyes are on some well-signaled and massive fiscal stimulus due for release in China.When it is announced, it will overshadow everything else. But this week will also feature a wide range of other economic data released. Top of the list will be September's PMI data from China, the US and the EU among others, Japan will chime in with its industrial production and retail sales data, The EU will also be releasing inflation data, as will South Korea. And the US will also have more labour market updates, and end the week with its key non-farm payrolls report. In Australia, it will be about building consents and retail trade.Locally, it will all be about the September housing market reports, plus the Wednesday full dairy auction. But don't forget the following week, when the RBNZ will be releasing its OCR decision, so that will dominate this week's background outlook.We ended last week with some eye-catching optimism sweeping over Chinese stock markets after unprecedented money-printing fiscal stimulus signaling there.That came as their central bank some significant monetary policy changes. On Friday they cut the seven-day reverse repurchase rate by 20 bps to 1.5%. They also cut the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 50 bps, the second reduction this year, bringing the weighted average RRR for financial institutions to around 6.6% after the cut.They clearly need it. Construction firms are failing at a much faster rate now.The Hong Kong and Shanghai equity markets may be roaring, in anticipation of the coming stimulus. But Chinese industrial profits are weak. For the eight months to August, they are a touch less than for the same period last year. For August alone they were -23% lower than the same month in 2023.In Japan, they are about to get a new prime minister, a self-acknowledged policy wonk, and someone who has been on the outer of the main political establishment for years. He will now be at the center. Shigeru Ishiba is set to make the economy his top priority, signaling plans to lighten the burden of rising prices. Markets are expected to react when they open later today.In Taiwan, consumer sentiment rose in September to its highest level since March 2020. In the US PCE inflation rose at an annualised rate of +2.2% in August, a confirmation that inflation's impulse is back under control. That is its tamest rise since February 2021.American disposable personal income was up +3.1% in August from the same month a year ago, personal consumption expenditure was up +2.9% on the same basis.The final September reading of the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey was released over the weekend and it was revised up from the flash result. The main reason for the increase was higher confidence in the 'present conditions' part of the survey. This survey is now at a five month high.US wholesale inventories slipped in August from July, but were up less than +1% from a year ago. It was similar for their merchandise trade deficit; down in August from July but up from a year ago. We have made the point before, but the size of these deficits is minor compared to their overall economic activity.Nothing in these second-tier data releases alters the expanding track of the giant American economy.EU sentiment is broadly stable in September. Firmer consumer sentiment offsets a slight weakening in business sentiment in the month.In Australia, they issued an unusual warning late last week: electricity supply from solar rooftops was destabilising their distribution networks because of oversupply. The immediate problem is in Victoria but may affect South Australia as well. The households in those regions will likely be paid nothing for supply.Separately, we should perhaps keep an eye on the butter price, At auction it has been basically stable for most of the year.at about US$6500/tonne. But the EU butter price has risen to US$7,200/tonne since July. Either the GDT price will shift up strongly, or the EU price will fall sharply. It might be the latter because we saw it fall -5% in the last few days of last week.The UST 10yr yield is now at just on 3.75% and down -1 bp from Saturday. The price of gold will start today at US$2658/oz and up +US$15 from Saturday and back up nearer it all-time high.Oil prices are h+50 USc firmer at just over US$668/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is now just on US$72/bbl.The Kiwi dollar starts today at 63.4 USc and down -10 bps from this time Saturday, up more than +1c from this time last week. Against the Aussie we are little-changed at 91.9 AUc. Against the euro we have slipped -10 bps to 56.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 70.6, and down -15 bps from Saturday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$65,683 and down -0.3% from this time Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been very low at just on +/- 0.4%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news we are in the shadow of tomorrows US Fed rate decision. There almost certainly will be a rate cut, but the size of it is still in doubt. Place your bets.Meanwhile, today's dairy auction was a relatively tame affair, largely delivering what the derivatives markets signaled. But AMF and butter slipped, with the rest of the powders and cheese all rising about +3%. But there was more of the weak milkfats in this auction than normal so the overall price rose only +0.8%. In NZD terms it was similar. There will be little to shake farmgate payout forecasts in this event's results.And staying local, we should note that there is another electricity crunch underway this morning from 7am to 8:30am. Prices are under pressure as you would expect.Elsewhere in the US, the data released overnight delivered another set of positives. August retail sales grew when a slip was expected. And July retail sales were sharply revised higher. Last week's Redbook index rose +4.7% from the same week a year ago.US industrial production rose and by more than expected in August. And that means on a year-on-year basis it is no longer negative.And their NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index rose in September beating expectations. This breaks a string of four consecutive monthly declines.There was a well-supported but relatively small UST 20yr bond auction today where the median yield came in at 3.97%, down from 4.10% at the equivalent event a month ago.In Canada, their CPI inflation rate fell to 2.0% and back to where their central bank needs it to be. It was a slightly larger adjustment lower than expected. The Bank of Canada next reviews rate on October 23 and there is growing talk of a -50 bps reduction then.Meanwhile Canada housing starts in August came in lower than expected.Across the Pacific, Singapore's August exports came in softer than was anticipated.But India's August exports beat estimates, even if the rise seems minor and overall Indian exports are not large by world scales.Remember, China is on holiday today.The UST 10yr yield is now at just on 3.64% and up +1 bp from this time yesterday. The price of gold will start today at US$2566/oz and down -US$15 from yesterday's high.Oil prices are up +US$1 at US$71.50/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is now just under US$74/bbl.The Kiwi dollar starts today at 61.8 USc and down -10 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -20 bps at 91.6 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 55.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 69.4, and down a minor -10 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$60,835 and up +4.9% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been high at just on +/- 3.3%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

More profit appears to be on the horizon for dairy farmers, with conditions faring better than expected. Dairy NZ's lifted its revenue forecast to $8.84 per kilogram of milk solids, with a break even of $8.09. Head of Economics Mark Storey says the combination of improved farmgate milk prices and declining interest rates show a healthier situation for the sector. But he says the costs of electricity, feed, and maintenance have kept driving farm working expenses up. He says overall expenses are staying stubbornly high, so the inflation hasn't come out of the system just yet. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The National Milk Producers Federation continues to reiterate their message that cow milk needs to be a part of the official USDA Dietary Guidelines to ensure the proper development of youth.

Prices have bounced back in the latest Global Dairy Trade auction - with an impressive 5.5 percent increase across the board. The sixth event of the new dairy season, it is the largest percentage lift since March 2021, and a far cry from the the beginning of July when prices plunged 6.9 percent. The Country's Jamie Mackay explains what this means for the primary sector. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Prices have bounced back in the latest Global Dairy Trade auction - with an impressive 5.5 percent increase across the board. The sixth event of the new dairy season, it is the largest percentage lift since March 2021, and a far cry from the the beginning of July when prices plunged 6.9 percent. The Country's Jamie Mackay explains what this means for the primary sector. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Prices are good now for dairy producers, but whether or not they stay that way, will depend on the upcoming corn and soybean harvest.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news global equity markets have essentially bounced back, consigning the Monday ructions to just a 'summer wobble'.But first up, there was another full dairy auction earlier today. It was a much larger event with more than 35,000 tonnes sold. Overall prices rose +0.5% from the prior full event three weeks ago. More than a quarter of the volumes were for SMP which fell -2.7%. More than a half were for WMP which rose +2.4%. The rest of the products offered brought variable results too. Although the result was little-changed in USD, the much lower NZD brought a +1.9% rise in local currency.Globally, world food prices are low and little-changed. If any category is changing, it is a slight uptick in meat prices.In the US, the data released overnight was largely positive, assisting the financial market recoveries. The US Redbook index of retail sales at physical stores was up +5.1% last week from a year ago, rising from the prior week.Their Logistics Managers Index (LMI) rose more than expected showing their logistics industry expanding more than expected in July and at a good clip.The RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index for investors rose in August to its highest in seven months.And US exports for both goods and services rose more in June than imports, allowing their trade deficit to ease back slightly. Those exports are now +5.9% higher than year-ago levels. As we have noted before, this deficit is just a rounding error for the giant US economy, even if it is a political football.While none of these overnight data releases on their own are terrible important, the combination supported the sharp mood change. The earlier suggestion of imminent recession in the US may only have been from summer keyboard warriors.Canadian exports also rose notably in June to be +10.6% higher than a year ago.I know we have mentioned this before, along with the reasons, but the Chinese steel rebar price is turning into a bit of a rout, with extended sharp dives. It is now down almost -23% lower than year-ago levels. The copper price is wavering too.In fact, aggressive price discounting in many Chinese sectors has become the norm there casting a pall over general business conditions. It probably can't go on like that without widespread enterprise failures.Elsewhere EU retail sales volumes fell in June after the small rise in May. Most countries in the bloc struggled, but Spain, Portugal and Denmark were among the few that bucked the trend.Yesterday the RBA left its policy rate unchanged at 4.35%. But its accompanying commentary was direct and specific; they haven't beaten inflation yet and the progress they may have made isn't sufficient. It was a hawkish hold. Markets bid up yields on benchmark bonds following the statement. The AUD rose. (And that pushed the NZD down.) It seems there will be no rate cuts in Australia in 2024. What will now be of interest is whether financial markets take the RBA guidance on board in its pricing.Later this morning StatsNZ will release the June labour market report. Our unemployment rate is expected to come in at 4.7%, a rise from 4.3% in Q1. That would be an increase of +10,000 more people without jobs in the quarter. But it could be more than that. The rise of those on JobSeeker benefits was +8,450 in the same period but not everyone who is jobless claims for those benefits. But a notable rise above a 4.7% rate would probably be influential in the next week's RBNZ considerations (even if there is no longer a jobs mandate).The UST 10yr yield is now at just on 3.88% and up +11 bps from yesterday. The price of gold will start today down -US$12 from yesterday at US$2391/oz.Oil prices are +50 USc firmer at just under US$73/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is just over US$76.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar starts today up +¼c from this time yesterday at just on 59.6 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -20 bps at 91.1 AUc. Against the euro we are up +30 bps at 54.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 68.2 and up +20 bps.The bitcoin price starts today at US$56,690 and up +3.9% from where we left it yesterday continuing the recent volatility. In fact, the volatility over the past 24 hours has been very high, at +/- 4.2%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news lower commodity prices spread more widely overnight and a dark mood flowed over Chinese equity markets late yesterday.But first, there was a GDT Pulse auction event overnight. Basically prices fell. The SMP price was down a bit more than expected, down -2.8% from last week's full GDT event and taking it back to levels last seen in April. The more important WMP price was down too, down -1.5% in a lesser retreat than expected. Given how commodity prices have been falling generally recently, perhaps this isn't as tough as it could have been.Meanwhile in the US, their retail sales at physical stores were up +4.9% last week from the same week a year ago, a much better gain than inflation, so consumers continue to spend, although not with quite the same impressive enthusiasm as a month ago.But they are not spending to buy a house. Existing home sales fell by -5.4% from the previous month to an annual rate of 3.89 million units in June, the sharpest monthly decline since 2022, to the fewest amount of sales since the start of the year. It was the fourth consecutive monthly decline in existing home sales as the median sales price climbed to a record high of US$426,900 (NZ$717,000). Higher-end houses are still selling but the middle of the market is now a buyer's market. Unsold housing inventory rose by to 1.32 million units, or 4.1 months' supply at the current monthly sales pace.Also retreating was the Richmond Fed's survey of factories in the mid-Atlantic states. In fact, it contracted the most in four years. New order levels retreated although future expectations for new orders are holding up. Perhaps election-change prospects are weighing on these firms outlook?Meanwhile there was a UST 2yr bond tender earlier today, and it was again very well supported, delivering a median yield of 4.39% and that was -27 bps lower than the 4.66% at the prior equivalent event a month ago.In India, their Budget delivered a raft of changes. These included increased spending, job creation, and tax relief for the middle class. They hiked their Securities Transaction Tax, reduced taxes on short-term and long-term capital gains, and abolished the angel tax on foreign investment. They also cut import duties on gold and silver, but raised them on plastic products. Income tax thresholds were raised. In the end this is deficit spending equivalent to 4.9% of Indian GDP and continuing its fiscal stimulus. Modi's allies will be satisfied with what they got.Taiwanese retail sales improved again in June, up almost +4% from a year ago, well above inflation there. And their industrial production was up an impressive +13.5% on the same basis.EU consumer confidence improved marginally in July, although it remains low and well below its ten year average. But at least it isn't going backwards.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.25% and little-changed from this time yesterday. Hong Kong equity prices fell -1.0% and Shanghai was down -1.7% in its Tuesday trade both in sharp late selloffs. Tech capital Shenzhen fell almost -3.0%. The price of gold will start today up +US$10 from yesterday at US$2403/oz.Oil prices are -US$1 lower at just on US$77/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is just on US$80.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar starts today down another -¼c at 59.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are still at 90 AUc. Against the euro we are also still at 54.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 68.5 and down -30 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$65,848 and down -2.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.8%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Influences on Sudden Death Syndrome Japanese Beetles, Burrowing Bugs and Grasshoppers in Fields Dairy Prices for Producers vs Consumers   00:01:05 – Influences on Sudden Death Syndrome: Starting the show is K-State row crop plant pathologist Rodrigo Onofre and K-State PhD student in plant pathology Madison Kessler to talk about their recent research on how Sudden Death Syndrome can be influenced. eUpdate.agronomy.ksu.edu   00:12:05 – Japanese Beetles, Burrowing Bugs and Grasshoppers in Fields: Jeff Whitworth, K-State crop entomologist, keeps today's show rolling discussing Japanese beetles, burrowing bugs and grasshoppers. He says what these insects are doing and how they can be controlled, if needed. Japanese Bettle and Burrowing Bugs Make Their Annual Appearance in Kansas   00:23:05 – Dairy Prices for Producers vs Consumers: K-State dairy specialist Mike Brouk finishes the show by looking at the fluctuation in the Class 1 Base Price and how the price producers receive varies greatly from what consumers see in the grocery store.     Send comments, questions or requests for copies of past programs to ksrenews@ksu.edu.   Agriculture Today is a daily program featuring Kansas State University agricultural specialists and other experts examining ag issues facing Kansas and the nation. It is hosted by Shelby Varner and distributed to radio stations throughout Kansas and as a daily podcast.   K‑State Research and Extension is a short name for the Kansas State University Agricultural Experiment Station and Cooperative Extension Service, a program designed to generate and distribute useful knowledge for the well‑being of Kansans. Supported by county, state, federal and private funds, the program has county Extension offices, experiment fields, area Extension offices and regional research centers statewide. Its headquarters is on the K‑State campus in Manhattan

Dairy prices nosedive. US data quite positive. China housing woes deepen. Inflation low in South Korea & EU. RBA minutes leave rate hike on table.

It's a tough time for dairy farmers with expenses up and profits down.  An industry survey has shown a suite of challenges for dairy producers including a drop in the payout for milk solids and a reduction in herd size.  It's caused operating profits to be down 27%.  Mark Neal, Head of Data Science at Dairy NZ, told Mike Hosking that it's emblematic of wider economic challenges.  He says farmers, like the rest of New Zealanders, are battling inflation and are being forced to watch costs.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

I talk to Dave Kurzawski, Team Lead in Chicago, about the rally and fizzle we've seen in U.S. cheese and butter prices this week.

We'll need to get together this morning for some discussion.  I'm apparently getting a new credit card - new bank partner.  When I do, I want you to go ahead and make those reservations for Washington Watch.  Blast this week! I have had a schedule change on a doctor's appointment today and I don't know if I'll get done fast enough to be at the WCC announcement.  I'm still going to try but it'll be close.  Talking to Nick Levandowski on spring chick issues this morning, and Pete Kappelman from LOL about Farm Bill issues they're watching and concerned about.Tomorrow I've got a paid client interview with Purina.REMEMBER - we need to combine audio for our B&B tomorrow morning.  2 voices - tell me what you envision.  We can just tag the actual World Winner and not really worry about a lot of audio specifically around that.Clips with Matt Tranel attached.For farm gals, or any woman that appreciates rural Wisconsin - it's time to take a break.  Before spring planting kicks into gear and the kids are out of school, the community of Plover is offering Savor & Sow - a weekend agventure retreat.  Pam Jahnke talks to organizer, Malorie Paine, about why they developed the option and who they partnered with.There's more to judging cheese than meets the eye.  Jill Allen is a cheese judge that came from Tillamook Cheese in Oregon to help at the World Champion Cheese event.  She says she cleanses her palate between samples with sparkling water, but every judge is different.  She also says it doesn't take her long sampling an entry before she knows if it's a winner.Wisconsin, of course, is hoping for the title at the world event.  Steve Stetler would love to see that.  He's a Master Cheesemaker at Decatur Dairy in Brodhead and his Muenster curds topped the Open Class at the event.  He talks to Charitee Seebecker about why the event's so special.They may not officially be in session, but work continues on policy that could impact agriculture.  Stephanie Hoff gets an overview with Jordan Lamb from the Welch Group on where she's channeling her energy. Matt Tranel from EverAg in Platteville joins Pam Jahnke for an update on what news is driving dairy markets. Buyers are sitting still with these lower prices, and dairy producers should be signing up for a guaranteed payback on the Dairy Margin Coverage Program.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Listen now to get the latest news on interim ACRES payments, the results of an EPA survey on culling the national herd and Rabobank's dairy price outlook for 2024.

The Rural Contractors body wants the new government to make it easier to get skilled workers and the seaweed sector is hoping some changes will be made so it can grow and profit from the lucrative wild algae, which is worth more than $20 billion a year globally.  

Dairy prices are continuing their upward trend.  Overall prices are up a further 4.3% at the latest Global Dairy Trade auction overnight, with the all-important Whole Milk Powder price up 4.2%.  It's the fourth consecutive rise, with prices now 17% higher than they were back in August.  Prices are 38% lower than the record high reached last year, but JMI Wealth Director Andrew Kelleher told Mike Hosking that dairy farmers have reason to celebrate.  He says the rising prices support Fonterra's decision to lift its forecast Farmgate Milk Price for this season.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Dairy prices have risen for the first time in four months in this morning's Global Dairy Trade auction. The average price increased by 2.7 percent to an average price of $2888 US dollars a tonne. The whole milk powder price - which affects the payout for local farmers - rose 5.3 percent to $2,702 a tonne. ANZ rural economist Susan Kilsby spoke to Corin Dann.

Dairy farmers won't have much reason to celebrate the latest slight rise in dairy prices.  Overall prices have risen 2.7% at this morning's Global Dairy Trade auction, the first rise in four months.  The crucial Whole Milk Powder price is up 5.3%.  JMI Wealth Director Andrew Kelleher told Mike Hosking that the rise won't change Fonterra's Farmgate Milk Price, which has plummeted from a midpoint of $8 to a mid-point of $6.75 over the past five weeks.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Going to work to lose money.' Dairy farmers around the country say they'll be tightening their belts after international diary prices crashed to their lowest levels in nearly five years overnight. Those still carrying debt, fear for their viability while more established players are going over their budgets with a fine-tooth comb. Our Taranaki Whanganui reporter Robin Martin has more. Agriculture Minister Damien Oconnor spoke with Lisa owen [embed] https://players.brightcove.net/6093072280001/default_default/index.html?videoId=6333748117112

Global dairy prices plunged by 7.4 percent overnight at the Global Dairy Trade auction. Whole Milk Powder - a key driver for Fonterra's prices - dropped 10.9 percent, the lowest level in nearly 5 years. Dairy NZ director Jacqueline Rowarth says this decline is partially led by softening demand from China amid Covid-19 restrictions.  "This has been a game that has been played before, it's very difficult to tell what's going on in China. We love them as a market, but in terms of customers, it can be very challenging." LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Global dairy prices took a big hit overnight, but it's not all bad news for Australian dairy farmers, scientists are looking into how native stingless bees could be alternative pollinators for Australian crops, and Australia's mushroom industry says there's "no chance" of poisonous wild mushrooms entering the supply chain.

Dairy prices crashed overnight to a four-year low, with prices falling 7.4 percent to an average price of US$2875 per tonne. The price of wholemilk powder - which is the most influential on Fonterra's farmgate price - fell 10.9 percent. ANZ rural economist, Susan Kilsby, said the drop is disappointing but not surprising. She doesn't expect to see a major improvement in prices until 2024. Kilsby spoke to Corin Dann.

Global dairy prices plunged by 7.4 percent overnight at the Global Dairy Trade auction. Whole Milk Powder, which has the biggest influence on Fonterra's milk price, dropped 10.9-percent. It comes less than two weeks after the dairy co-op drastically cut its forecast Farmgate Milk Price - with the midpoint falling from $8 to just $7. JMI Wealth Director Andrew Kelleher told Mike Hosking the drop was expected. He says the real issue is how long prices will stay this low for. LISTEN ABOVE  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Australian honey producers have won what they hope is a final battle in a long-running trans-Tasman war over who can use the word, manuka, milk prices for the next financial year have been confirmed and dairy farmers will be getting paid less for their product and the latest winter outlook shows an 80 per cent chance of below average rainfall over the next three months.

Cattle "Rustling" is something we think about from decades ago, but given the high value of cattle today - it's back in play.  Pam Jahnke visits with Jara Settles, Chief Counsel with the Livestock Marketing Association, explains what's happening with cattle thefts and how producers can protect themselves. Nate Zimdars is following the budget process at the state house and how it could impact rural roads and infrastructure.  He talks with grain producer Arch Morton Junior from Rock County on why repairing and refortifying rural roads and bridges impacts more than just farmers and rural citizens. Bryce Windecker, broker analyst with EverAg, joins Pam Jahnke to talk about the way the world is adjusting dairy prices.  Consumers are feeling the economic pinch and adjusting what they buy.  In turn, suppliers are adjusting prices to try and keep product moving.  Windecker says risk management today is key to seeing any margin of break even in the future.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The world's first genetically-modified banana has been submitted for assessment by Australian researchers, a small wool shop has been built on a historic SA property where customers can see the sheep the woollen products have came from and the United States has reported an aytipcal case of BSE, commonly known as mad cow disease.

Leonard Polzin, extension dairy markets and policy outreach specialist with the University of Wisconsin, says looking ahead to the rest of 2023, there may be some downward pressure on dairy prices, especially in the overseas markets.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.