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Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the IMF says global growth is projected at 3.0% for 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, an upward revision from the April 2025 World Economic Outlook. This reflects front-loading ahead of tariffs, lower effective tariff rates, better financial conditions, and fiscal expansion in some major jurisdictions.But first, the overnight GDT Pulse dairy prices came in without the signaled drop in WMP prices by the derivatives market. In fact it rose +1% from the prior event. The SMP price however fell -1%. So in fact little net movement.And the Stockholm US-China tariff negotiations are to be extended, essentially ignoring the US imposed August 1 deadline. And the US-EU 'deal' wasn't 'done' as the Whitehouse claimed. More 'horse-trading' is being scheduled.The growth steam is slowly leaking from the Redbook retail index, up +4.9% last week from this time last year. Most of this will be goods inflation.US exports rose +3.4% in June from a year ago whereas US imports were up +0.3% on the same basis. That reduced their merchandise trade deficit to -US$87 bln and back to about where it was at the start of 2024. Without the +11% rise in aircraft exports there would have been little improvement.The number of job openings in the US fell by -275,000 from May to 7.4 mln in June, below market expectations of 7.55 mln. Their quit rate fell to a six month low. Expectations for the July non-farm payrolls are pretty modest at +110,000, taking them back to early 2025 levels.The latest Conference Board survey of consumer sentiment, for July, was little changed. But almost 19% of those surveyed indicated that jobs were hard to get in July, up from 14.5% in January. This group thought inflation was running at 5.8% currently, and is likely to go higher.There was a very well supported US Treasury bond auction overnight, for their seven year Note. But investors still wanted higher yields with the median coming in at 4.06%, up from 3.96% at the prior equivalent event a month ago.But expect rising pressure from the demand side. The US Treasury said during the July - September 2025 quarter, they expect to borrow US$1.007 tln in privately-held net marketable debt, assuming an end-of-September cash balance of US$850 bln - which may be optimistic. This new borrowing estimate is +US$453 bln higher than they announced in April so it is rising faster than even they expected, primarily due to the lower beginning-of-quarter cash balance and projected lower net cash flows.In Europe, the latest ECB survey of inflation expectations has them well contained, coming in at 2.6% for the year ahead, the lowest in four months. Policymakers there are not battling high inflation expectations.Later today, Australia will release its Q2 CPI inflation rate, expected to be 2.2% and down from the 2.4% in Q1-2025.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.33%, down -9 bps from yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$3,327/oz, up +US$18 from yesterday.American oil prices have risen +US$2.50 at just under US$69/bbl with the international Brent price is now at just over US$72/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 59.6 USc and down -10 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -20 bps at 91.4 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 51.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 67.5, down another -10 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$117,725 and essentially unchanged (+US$61) from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has remained low at just on +/-0.8%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news precious metals prices are having a moment - in US dollars at least, largely because the US dollar is extending its retreat. The same impact is affecting commodities like copper. Prices are rising in the US as a consequence of tariff-taxes which are pushing down the value of the greenback.But first, the dairy Pulse auction for SMP and WMP brought better results than the futures markets expected. SMP was up +1.7% and slightly better than the +1.5% expected. But the big mover was WMP which rose +1.5% when a -4% retreat was expected. The continuation of better prices will be something of a quiet relief in this industry.In the US. the retail impulse continued to expand last week, up +5.1% from a year ago. But the suspicion lingers that much of this is the inclusion of tariff taxes, despite what the CPI indicates.And those tariff taxes hurt the results in the latest Richmond Fed factory survey. This was their worst result in ten months and was led by a sharp retreat in new orders. Input cost growth stayed up.The cost of those tariff-taxes on US companies was on full display in US earnings reports. For Stellantis (Chrysler) it was US$300 mln, for GM US$1 bln. Both ate away at reported profits significantly. It is hard to see these type of companies absorbing costs like this for much longer.Across the Pacific, Taiwanese export orders continued their outstanding growth, up almost another +-25% in June from the same month in 2024 which itself led year-ago levels. It is hugely impressive and continues a very strong 2025 monthly set. It is their electronics industry leading the way.Sentiment in Japan bounced back yesterday as it became a clearer bet that Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is expected to remain in office despite the embarrassing performance of his party at the recent upper house elections. But holding on, he will be a damaged leader. The upstart ‘Japanese First' Sanseito party has emerged as powerful force after these elections, and that was despite a 'secret' Russian campaign to support them (and destabilise Japan) that was exposed before voting.In the Europe, the ECB's latest credit survey fund a twist towards housing lending there. While credit standards for company loans remained broadly unchanged, credit standards tightened slightly for housing loans and more markedly for consumer credit. But this was because housing loan demand continued to increase strongly, while demand for company loans remained weak.In Australia, the vultures are out targeting vulnerable borrowers who are debt stressed. It has ASIC worried and they have launched a review into the debt management and credit repair sector in an effort to protect those experiencing financial hardship. Expect the Commerce Commission here to assess whether it needs to do similar work.Staying in Australia, the RBA released the minutes of its July 8 meeting and they revealed little new. They left its cash rate steady at 3.85% at this meeting, defying market forecasts for a -25 bps cut. The move was passed by majority vote, six in favour and three against. These minutes were full of "wait and see" sentiment, "data dependent" notes. Part of the waiting-to-see is because they doubt Trump will actually do what he threatens. They buy the TACO view apparently.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.34%, down -3 bps from yesterday at this time. The price of gold will start today at US$3,427/oz, up another +US$34 from yesterday. And that almost matched its record high on April 21.And the silver price has pushed on up over US$39/oz It isn't yet threatening its 2011 peaks (US$48) but the recent climb has some people quite excited.American oil prices are -US$2 softer at just on US$65/bbl but the international Brent price is only down -50 USc at just under US$68.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 60 USc and up +25 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 91.6 AUc. Against the euro we are also little-changed at 51.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 67.5, up +10 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$119,198 and up +1.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has remained modest, at just under +/-1.2%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Fonterra’s CFO reviews last night’s positive GDT Auction - up 1.1%, WMP + 1.7%, SMP + 2.5%.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news US inflation is rising and tariffs are getting the blame.But first, the overnight dairy auction brought prices +1.1% higher in USD terms, +3.6% higher in NZD terms. It was the first rise we have had in these full auctions since yearly May. This time, the expected +2.5% rise in SMP was matched by an unexpected rise of +1.7% in WMP prices. Butter prices were unchanged but cheddar cheese prices fell a sharpish -5.6%.In the US they got the expected rise in CPI inflation for June, up 2.7% when it was rising 2.4% in May. The Fed will have noticed that "core inflation" rose 2.9%. Food prices rose 3.0% and rents up 3.8%. The overall level was restrained by an -8.3% drop in petrol prices. As those year-ago petrol prices normalise in future months, they won't be restraining anything. Just in time for the pass-through of the tariff-taxes. An independent Fed will be concerned about the upwad trajectory.A Fed factory survey in the New York state recorded a rise in July, their first since February. But they are seeing input cost pressure picking up. However they also report it is easier to pass on those costs and seemed relieved about that.Canada also reported its June CPI inflation rate, coming in at 1.9%, up from 1.7% in May.India reported declining merchandise exports in June, in fact their lowest level of the year and almost -8% lower than year-ago levels. Imports fell too. But strong services exports (outsourcing services) balanced things out. In contrast to China, India's rise is domestically-driven, not foreign trade driven, making them somewhat insulated from the tariff-wars.China reported that its Q2-2025 economy expanded +5.2% in inflation-adjusted terms from Q2-2024. This was bang on what Beijing had set as a target, and what observers were expecting them to announce. Strong exports and consumer subsidies helped a lot.China said its retail sales were up +4.8% in June from a year ago, its industrial production up +6.8%. So that suggests they had the best of both worlds - rising industry and rising internal consumption. That they seem to have done this all with only a modest rise in electricity production (+1.7%) would be impressive if it was believable. They are almost certainly making big strides in energy efficiency but it is unlikely as reported. Despite these cred issues however, it is clear that the Chinese economy is not going backward.But even if they aren't as steep as they have been over any of the past 15 months, new house prices in China are still falling. Only 12 of the 70 largest cities had prices that held basically unchanged however. But for resales, none were in that category. The lure of housing speculation in China is but a distant memory. For most developers that is trouble. But pockets like in Shenzhen may be seeing a bit of a shine.In the EU, industrial production surprised with a good +3.4% gain in May, far better than expected and continuing the 2025 expansion. The gains were even stronger in the euro areaSo it will be no surprise to learn that German ZEW sentiment seems to be in full recovery mode; this data for July, so those industrial production gains have likely continued.In Australia, the Westpac/Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment survey showed a third consecutive rise in July, although a small one. Despite the surprise no-cut by the RBA recently, most consumers still expect interest rates to move lower from here. But they remain uncertain about the outlook for the overall economy and jobs. Housing-related sentiment dipped slightly but price expectations remained high.And staying in Australia, the RBA has reached the preliminary view that it would be in the public interest to remove surcharging on eftpos, Mastercard and Visa cards. They also want to lower the cap on interchange fees paid by businesses, and require card networks and large acquirers to publish the fees they charge. They are now in the 'consultation' phase, which will no doubt involve fierce pushback. Here the Commerce Commission has been looking at the same issues, and will report on the New Zealand changes they want to see, very soon.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.49%, up +6 bps from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at US$3,327/oz, down -US$22 from yesterday at this time.American oil prices are down -50 USc to US$66.50/bbl while the international Brent price is just over US$68.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 59.4 USc and down -30 bps from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 91.3 AUc. Against the euro we are also unchanged at 51.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 67.4, and down -10 bps.The bitcoin price starts today at US$117,421 and down -2.0% from this time yesterday. And that takes it back below NZ$200,000. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest, still just on +/-1.9%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news US tariff threats are shifting from being aimed at trading 'partners' to a focus on commodities, today especially copper. Protection of favoured US business interests is the goal, cloaked in the labels of 'national security'.But first up today, the overnight dairy Pulse auction delivered less change than expected, essentially holding on to the SMP and WMP prices at the prior week's full auction. But in the meantime the NZD has retreated so both delivered good gains in NZD, up +1.1% for SMP and up +3.1% for WMP.The US retail impulse as measured by the Redbook survey delivered a very good +5.9% gain over the same week a year ago, but it should be noted that earlier base week was an unusual down one.And the New York Fed's national survey of consumer inflation expectations returned to a 'normal' 3% in June, and a five month low. But some components remain a worry. Those surveyed thing food prices will rise 5.5%, rents will rise +9.1% and medical care by +9.3%Meanwhile the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for June was little changed at it long run levelThe popular US Treasury three year bond auction delivered unchanged demand and little-change on the median yields achieved. Today that came in at 3.84%, whereas the equivalent event a month ago was at 3.92%.US consumer debt grew a very modest +US$5 bln in May, half the expansion in April and well below the average for the past year. The slowdown was very acute for revolving debt, like credit cards.In Canada, the widely-watched local PMI turned positive in June following two toughish months.In Germany, both exports and imports were expected to decline in May from April, and they did, but by slightly more than was expected. But both remain higher than year ago levels.In Australia, the widely watched NAB business sentiment survey picked up and that was a much better outcome than the contraction expected. In fact this June result for business conditions broke the mould of the long-running decline that started in June 2022.That survey didn't point to anything special in terms of cost pressures. But those cost pressures clearly worried the RBA when it surprised financial markets with its no-change decision yesterday. The widely-expected rate cut didn't happen and so household budgets will have to wait for more relief. The RBA did pick up the resilience in the overall economy, but judged it too early to respond to perceptions of economic weaknesses. In fact they saw the balance of risks from trade and labour market cost activity not requiring a boost from a cut in interest rates.We should note that US tariff uncertainty is screwing around with some key commodity prices, especially copper, which has soared over the past day or so to over US$12,000/tonne and easily a new record high. Some US futures contracts are now up over US$13,000/tonne. US products that use copper are going to get a cost jolt. Because it is a jolt directly related to a new US tariff-tax, it won't affect products made outside the US.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.42%, and up another +3 bps from yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$3,306/oz, and down -US$25 from yesterday.American oil prices are up another +US$1 at just under US$68.50/bbl while the international Brent price is now just under US$70.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now just on 60 USc, little-changed from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -50 bps at 91.9 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 51.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 67.6 and -10 bps lower from yesterday at this time.The bitcoin price starts today at US$109,015 and up +1.0% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/-2.3%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Fonterra’s chief operating officer reviews last night’s GDT Auction (down 4.1%, WMP down 5.1%). So, is the $10 forecast milk price for the 25/26 season under threat?See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the US Senate has agreed the Trump budget, but only after the Vice President broke a deadlock with a casting vote. Financial markets are wondering about the wisdom in all this with equities hesitating, bond yields turning up, and the USD drifting lower. To be fair, none of these movements are large today. But the implications of massively higher US debt levels are as is the opening of the magic-money accounting they have adopted. It will be the bond market that makes the practical judgement.First however, the overnight dairy auction came in as weak as the futures market suggested it might. The SMP price fell -1.7%, but only to match the prior week's Pulse event. However the more important WMP price fell -5.1% and back to levels last seen at the beginning of the year. One local reason may have been the sharp increase in volumes offered, +10,000 tonnes more than at the prior event two weeks ago, and +6.7% more than the event in the same week a year ago. This volume offer jump came as milk production rose in all key producing regions (except Australia).Overall, prices were down -4.1% in USD terms at this even, down -5.2% in NZD as the greenback weakens further.The price downshift will have analysts reaching for their pencils although it might be too soon for them to backtrack on their 2025/26 payout forecasts. Fonterra's current season results are pretty much locked in and will be reported in late September. But their new year may be off to a soft start.Last week, the US Redbook index was +4.9% higher than year ago levels but still in the easing trend that started in early April.The May level of job openings rose unexpectedly to more than 7.7 mln largely on a surge for foodservice jobs. Analysts didn't see this coming but perhaps they should have given the sharp ICE immigration crackdowns underway. These roles at these volumes will be hard to fill.The latest factory PMI report from the ISM shows a sector still in contraction, being led by weak new order inflows. The internationally benchmarked S&P Global/Markit version reported an expansion and a moderate one at that, But both noted rising inflation pressures.It appears that the expected rise in June car sales didn't occur, dipping to its slowest pace of the year.Apparently its a good time to be in the logistics sector in the US with inventory levels rising and supply chains being stressed. The Logistics Managers Index is running at an unusually high level.The Dallas Fed regional services survey reported a continuing contraction, although not as steep in June as May.And the RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index was expected to bounce back in July but in fact it resumed the decline in a trend that started in December 2024.After falling to a recent low in April, Japanese consumer sentiment is on the rise again, back to where it was at the start of the year, but not yet back to 2024 levels. But at least it is rising.Yesterday we noted that the official factory PMI for China "improved" but was still showing a contraction. Today, the alternative Caixin factory PMI came in a little better than that, rising from May's tiney contraction to June's small expansion. These shifts don't mean a lot, but at least they are going in an improved direction. The Caixin survey noted "Higher new order inflows supported a renewed rise in production. That said, the rate at which new orders expanded was only marginal amid subdued exports." Trump's trade war may have kneecapped Chinese growth but it hasn't knocked them over.Overnight the ECB released the results of its May survey of consumer inflation expectations and they dipped to 2.8% when a small rise was expected. Consumers apparently thought inflation was running at 3.1% over the past 12 months. Separately the EU released its June CPI data and that shows it running at 2.0%, up from 1.9% in May.In Australia, large parts of the east cost is hunkering down for a lashing of strong winds and heavy rain. And that will include Sydney.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.25%, and up +2 bps from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at US$3,337/oz, and up +US$45 from yesterday.American oil prices are marginally firmer from yesterday, up +50 USc at just on US$65.50/bbl while the international Brent price is up the same at just over US$67/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now just on 60.9 USc, unchanged from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 92.6 AUc. Against the euro we are down the same at 51.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 68.2 and unchanged from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$106,292 and down -1.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has stayed low at just over +/-0.9%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the US dollar is falling, and the benchmark US 10 year treasury yield is down also, near a seven week low. These are the key reactions to the easing of Middle East hostilities.But first up today, we should note that the weekly Pulse dairy auction for the two main powder products brought lower prices yer again. The SMP price fell -2.6% from last week's full auction to US$2704/tonne, which the WMP price fell -1.9% tp US$4006/tonne. The represent yet another retreat which essentially cancel the April to May price gains.In the US, Fed boss Powell was at Congress today giving his semiannual Monetary Policy Report. He is back again tomorrow. He repeated that they are in no rush to cut rates, certainly not in July, and that their scenario of two more -25 bps reductions in 2025 remains their current outlook. Their focus is on inflation risks which they still have worries about, not economic growth, and that is helped by a stable labour market.Meanwhile, the weekly Redbook survey of the US retail impulse showed sales volume growth easing lower, the lowest since the April tariff-tax induced price spike in early April. And if you exclude the seasonal dips at the end of 2024/25, this growth is the lowest since March 2024 even with the tariff-tax push effect on retail pricing.The US Conference Board's survey of consumer sentiment weakened in June. And this time the weakness spread to 'present conditions'. They report consumers were more pessimistic about business conditions and job availability over the next six months, and optimism about future income prospects eroded. It is a trend they have been noting since the start of 2025.Also fading was the Richmond Fed's latest factory survey for June. Although new order intakes declined more slowly, it still declined and the order backlogs in the region are now falling faster. Unless they get an improvement in new orders, production cutbacks are looking. And the service sector survey in the same mid-Atlantic states region is no better. In this district too, reshoring is not in evidence.We should also note that credit stress for US commercial real estate is staying unusually high. This extended trouble will force an increasing number of lenders there to book losses, and because the worst losses are coming from the largest buildings, it could be destabilising for some mid-sized banks. There was a large well supported US Treasury bond auction earlier today for their 2 year Note. This delivered a median yield of 3.73%, down from the 3.90% at the prior equivalent event a month ago.In Canada, their May inflation rate was reported overnight, unchanged at 1.7%, which was the expected result.Taiwanese retail sales were weaker in May, down -1.6% from the same month a year ago and extending a weaker trend. They were expected to rise marginally. However Taiwanese industrial production was outstandingly strong, up more than +20% from the same month a year ago and extending the April surge.In South Korea, consumer sentiment has improved sharply since the election of a reform-minded new president. Apart from a brief post-pandemic spike, they haven't been this optimistic there since 2017.And in case we don't miss it, the German economy is rising again, gaining in confidence and extending the gains that started in mid 2024. The turnaround hasn't been dramatic, but it has built more than you might have thought.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.30%, and down -3 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold will start today at US$3,320/oz, and down -US$61 from yesterday.American oil prices are down another -US$4.50 from yesterday at just over US$64.50/bbl while the international Brent price is now just under US$67.50/bbl as Middle East security concerns seem to fade.The Kiwi dollar is now just on 60.2 USc, back up +½c from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are +10 bps firmer at 92.6 AUc. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at 51.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at under 67.9 and +20 bps firmer than yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$106,141 and up +3.7% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +1.9%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Jarden's Head of Commodities comment's on last night's GDT Auction - the second of the new 25/26 season - down 1% (WMP down 2.1%). Plus we ask if Fonterra was too optimistic with its $10 opening forecast milk price. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news we are seeing signs of the US economy losing steam just as the US Fed meets.First up today, the overnight full dairy auction brought slightly lower prices, down nearly -1% overall. This was a smaller decline than the futures market expected. In NZD terms the dip was marginally more, down -1.2%. In the end the dip in the WMP price was only -2.1% and far less than expected. The SMP price dipped -1.3%. The volumes sold were at seasonal lows. All-in-all an auction event that will change little.Also uninspiring were US retail sales in May. It slowed to a +3.3% expansion year-on-year from a downwardly revised +5.0% in the previous month. Given that US CPI inflation is being recorded at 2.4%, the volume steam has gone right out of the American retail impulse. It is surprising many analysts. Month on month, retail sales actually fell. Overall, this was the weakest result since November 2024.US industrial production in May fell too, down -0.2% from the prior month, to be +0.6% higher than a year ago. These are 'real' volume numbers and signal what the Beige Book has been suggesting - a factory sector that is losing ground.It is no better in their housebuilding sector. The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index fell in June to its lowest since December 2022. Expectations were that it would improve, so another economic drag is building. Builders aren't happy facing higher tariff-tax costs when demand is leaking away.But these may be just the start. The tough new policies toward immigrants are being felt in ways some foresaw and will have a long term impact on American demographics. Suddenly the outflow of people from the US exceeds the inflow. And it is younger workers leaving which is making costs for servicing an expanding older population rise and much more suddenly that was expected. The speed of these changes is quite corrosive, the first time in 50 years they have had to face the fact that the US is no longer a magnet for the aspirational.And the big all-in-one US budget bill from the Trump Administration, which is struggling to get Congressional approval, is already having a depressive impact. International investors, including the giant sovereign wealth funds, face sharp new American taxes on their US investments. Most have now halted assigning funds to US opportunities. If the bill passes, there could be a rather sharp outflow of existing investments, one that would impact the USD and their current account.The US Fed FOMC is currently meeting and will report is decisions tomorrow. No change to their 4.5% policy interest rate is expected, but they will be watching the stagflation pressures of higher inflation and lower growth with some alarm, you would imagine.Across the Pacific, the Bank of Japan also held its key interest rate steady following a two-day policy meeting, keeping its rate at 0.5% amid economic uncertainty stemming from US trade policies. This marks the third consecutive meeting after which the central bank has maintained the rate; the last increase came in January.In China, new data forecasts out from the IEA shows that China's oil demand is set to peak in 2027, a trend that it calls a "fundamental transformation" in the global energy market. China has accounted for 60% of the growth in global oil demand in the past decade and slowing demand in the world's second largest economy is set to contribute to a significant surplus in oil by the end of this one.It is not all gloom. In Germany, the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment surged in June to its highest level since March's three-year peak and far exceeding market expectations. That sudden sentiment boost helped propel the wider EU survey results too.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.39%, and down -7 bps from yesterday. The price of gold will start today at US$3,387/oz, and down -US$4 from yesterday.American oil prices are still in the higher zone, up +US$2.50 from yesterday at just on US$74.50/bbl while the international Brent price is now just under US$76/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now just under 60.2 USc, back down -½c from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are up +20 bps at 93 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 52.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at on 68.2 and down -20 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$103,962 and down -3.7% from yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/-2.4%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news we are still waiting for indications of the China-US trade talks in London.Meanwhile, the World Bank said global trade expansion is now at its weakest since 2008 as the tariff tit-for-tat undermines it. They say without a swift course correction, "the harm to living standards could be deep". But they still see a global expansion of +2.3%, largely driven by China, Indonesia, Thailand and India. The retreat of growth in the US will be sharp they say halving in 2025 (+1.4%) from 2024 (+2.8%). The EU will be largely unaffected and maintain their low growth. Japan's low growth is expected to rise in the next three years. They don't review Australia or New Zealand.Elsewhere, the overnight dairy Pulse auction brought downbeat results. The key WMP price fell -1.1% in a retreat expected by the derivatives market. But even at this level it remains in the rising trend that started in mid-2024. However, the SMP price fell a hard -4.8% and much more than expected. In fact, SMP prices have now broken through their weak rising trend, and look quite vulnerable.Also showing signs of running out of steam were US retail sales growth as measured by their Redbook survey. They were up +4.6% from the same week a year ago, the weakest rise since March 2024. After inflation, this isn't any better.The the US NFIB small business optimism survey turned up in May, the first time it has done that in 2025.There was a US Treasury 3 year bond auction earlier today and that showed a small fall-off in support, something worth watching. The winning investors got a median yield of 3.92%, up from the 3.77% at the prior equivalent event a month ago.Across the Pacific, Japanese machine tool orders came in at a similar level in May as April, but that is only a +3.4% gain from the same month a year ago. It was kept positive by export orders, although domestic orders, which had been strong earlier in the year, are now cooling.In China, concerns persist about overproduction in their car manufacturing sector even though local new-vehicle sales overall, including exports, rose almost +10% in April. Those concerns are rippling through commodities that supply this juggernaut industry. Rubber prices, for example, are being hit hard as buyers lose confidence the China car industry can avoid a crash like the property sector. There are signs the government there is worried too, with Beijing telling carmakers to make sensible commercial decisions.In Australia, the Westpac-Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment survey wasn't particularly upbeat, coming in little-changed in June from May. But at least it isn't going backwards. Aussie consumers remain relatively averse to real estate as an investment option and to risk in general. Indeed, responses to a question on the ‘wisest place for savings' suggest that the tariff-related turmoil this year has seen what was already a high level of risk aversion intensify even further.And staying in Australia, the closely-watched NAB business sentiment survey has improved marginally in May, recording its first positive reading in four months. But, business conditions weakened in this survey and it will be hard for sentiment to improve if business conditions get weaker. Those weaker conditions came from ongoing profitability pressures and soft demand, with signs of a further softening in labour demand.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.47%, and down -2 bps from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$3,323/oz, and down -US$10 from yesterday.American oil prices are little-changed at just on US$65/bbl while the international Brent price is now just on US$67/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 60.4 USc, and dipping -10 bps from yesterday at this time. Against the Aussie we are also down -10 bps at 92.7 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 52.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at under 68.4 and down a bit less than -10 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$108,723 and up +0.4% from yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just on +/-0.9%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Jarden’s Head of Commodities comments on the first GDT auction of the new season - “The positive momentum that we saw coming into the season, right up until the penultimate event, now looks to be lost with the overall event falling 1.6% and several of the key individual products coming under pressure. WMP -3.7%, SMP -1.1%, AMF 1.4%, Butter 0%, BMP -6.1% and Cheese -4.2%.”See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news a relief rally is underway on Wall Street, responding to the delays in tariffs by the US on EU goods.But first, an update of the overnight dairy Pulse auction where prices for both SMP and WMP slipped although less than the futures market had suggested. The WMP was down -2.7% in USD from the prior week's full event, and a bit more in NZD. To be fair both prices had risen sharply since April but this pullback still leaves it in a rising trend despite today's adjustment.Data releases resumed in the US after their weekend holiday with durable goods orders pulling back in April after the unusually strong March gains. The pullback was largely in line with what was expected however, -6.3% lower than the prior month but up +2.7% from a year ago. Perhaps worryingly, excluding aircraft orders, nomn-defence capital goods barely budged in April, a sign that boardrooms remain skittish about future investment.That was matched by the Dallas Fed's May factory survey where activity was reported flat with a decline in new orders.But consumers seem happier, according to the Conference Board's May survey of consumer sentiment. But it was a survey taken before the latest US threats on the EU, so there is a sense of 'relief rally' here after the China tariff pullback. However, despite the month-on-month gain, this indicator is still tracking lower on the longer term, still lower than year-ago levels.Sentiment will be challenged again soon. There were a couple of housing indicators out overnight, and both recorded falls in American house prices. The FHA one was spun as an improvement, but it wasn't. The S&P/Case-Shiller one was a gain but a tiny one and the least since mid-2023.The bond market isn't feeling any better. The latest US Treasury 2 year auction, although as well supported as usual, brought a median yield of 3.90%, up from 3.74% at the prior equivalent event a month ago.And we can note that pricing for Trump Media shares, a marketplace that basically attracts investors who are supporters, is doing terribly. TMTG is down -11% today, down -33% so far this year, down more than -50% from a year ago. To rescue itself, it says it wants to raise US$2.5 bln to shift into crypto investing. It is an idea not going down well with shareholders.Across the border, core Canadian business activity is struggling a bit too. April wholesale trade was down -0.9% from March. That is kind of a lot for a one-month impact, one that records the initial tariff-war skirmishes.Across the Pacific in China, profits at industrial firms rose +1.4% in the first four months of 2025 compared to the same four months in 2024, picking up from +0.8% growth in the January–March period. For April alone, that was a rise of +5.2% from April 2024. Having noted that, April 2024 was a weak base. Still, given the trade challenges, and that China's factories are still very export oriented and vulnerable to trade war risks, this has to be seen as a good result in the circumstances.And we should start to keep an eye on China's carmakers. It is attracting increasing scrutiny because the economic fundamentals seem to be leaking away and quite fast. It could be another 'property development' industry failure, and could have just as large consequences if it wobbles too. They have no problem making cars, and good ones. But not only are they making more than the world needs, there are serious questions as to whether they can sell them for more than they cost to make.We should probably note that South Korean consumer sentiment jumped in May, rising back to levels that were common in November 2024 and prior. The ugly confusion period when its president went full-Trump and tried a palace coup (which resulted in impeachment, one that was upheld by the courts) is now behind it and Koreans are breathing easier. The rule of law won against a power grab. South Koreans will vote in a snap presidential election on Tuesday, June 3.And still in South Korea, they should join the CPTPP and diversify its trade as part of the bloc in the face of US uncertainties, a senior trade ex-minister is saying. (New Zealand runs a huge trade deficit with Korea.)In the EU, consumer and business sentiment basically held steady in May, according to the latest update. The trade wars are not yet unnerving the Europeans.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.44%, and down -6 bps from yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$3,302/oz, and down -US$38 from yesterday.Oil prices are down -US$1 at just over US$60.50/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is still just under US$64/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is down at 59.5 USc, a -½c retreat from yesterday at this time as commodity currencies are out of favour today. Against the Aussie we are down -20 bps at just on 92.3 AUc. Against the euro we are holding at 52.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today still just over 67.6 and down -30 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$110,309 and up another +1.2% from yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/-1.2%.Check back with us at 2pm for the RBNZ's May Monetary Policy Statement and OCR review. As you will knwo by now, 'everyone' expects a -25 bps cut. But the outlook from there is reasonably clouded, so Governor Hawkesby's analysis at 3pm is keenly awaited. We will have full coverage.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news both superpowers are dicing with unsustainable budget deficits that are posed to explode. The Moody's downgrade was just a teaser. The bond market will make the real judgment.But first today, the overnight dairy auction brought the expected settling of prices, even though they remain high. They dipped overall by -0.85% on the low volumes offered but with the backdrop that the European season is currently at its peak. WMP and SMP both dipped minorly and as signaled in the derivatives market. The Cheese price sank -9.2% however but it had probably gotten excessively high in prior events, so an unsurprising correction. Chinese buying presence was a feature of this event.US retail salesrose +5.4% last week from the same week a year ago, but this is clouded by the unknown impact of their new tariff-taxes. It is their slowest rise since late March and the impact of the tariff taxes will be starting to show up now. So it could well be that retail sales volumes are starting to decline now as a consequence.On Wall Street, there is growing nervousness about how the Federal Government's budget is being planned. If it goes through as the Administration is proposing, the US deficit to balloon sharply. And the bond market will have something sharp to say about that.In Canada, their inflation rate fell to 1.7% in April, but there was a special on-off factor that helped it. It dropped from 2.3% in March not quite hitting the expected 1.6% May level. A large part was a drop in energy prices not only because the oil price is easing but they also removed the consumer carbon tax. Food prices prices were up +3.8% however, especially the cost of fresh food.China has cut its key lending rates to record lows at yesterday's May fixing. The one-year loan prime rate, the benchmark for most corporate and household loans, was lowered by 10 basis points to 3.0%, while the five-year LPR, which is the basis for mortgage rates, was cut by the same margin to 3.5%. These changes were what markets were expecting and the first reductions since October. It is another in the string of monetary easing measures announced earlier this month.That official move was immediately followed by the four largest Chinese state-owned banks who cut deposit rates by between -5 bps and -25 bps. Those four core SOE banks are Bank of China, China Construction Bank, ICBC, (all of whom have New Zealand subsidiaries) and the Agricultural Bank of China. Other banks followed. Money is flowing out of savings accounts now, back to higher earning "wealth products', a move that in the past has been fraught with risk.The US isn't the only superpower flirting with deficit spending danger. China is too, as its fiscal stimulus pushed its four-month budget deficit to a record high of -¥2.65 tln in 2025 (-NZ$620 bln). And there is no public pushback on the wisdom of that.Malaysian exports took off in April with a strong +16.4% rise from the same month a year ago. If we look past the pandemic recovery growth, it was near their best export performance since 2018. But also came as imports surged +20% to a new all-time record high.In Europe, it might have been marginal but it is worth noting all the same - consumer sentiment got less bad in May. This seems to have broken the 2025 run of declines in these survey results, a decline that really started in late 2024.In Australia, they cut their cash rate target by -25 bps as expected to 3.85% which they say is still at a restrictive level, just less so. Inflation and trade uncertainties are still on their mind - and the risks to their continuing expansion were more so that markets were anticipating. Governor Bullock's press conference comments were more dovish than the rate change statement, and more dovish that many were expecting. The RBA also trimmed its growth forecasts. Markets now expect at least two more -25 bps rate cuts to come through in 2025. Yesterday's Bullock comments opens up the possibility of more.The UST 10yr yield is at 4.48%, up a mere +1 bp from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$3285/oz, and up +US$58 from yesterday.Oil prices are a tad softer today at just over US$62/bbl in the US but the international Brent price is +50 USc firmer at US$65.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 59.2 USc, up +30 bps from yesterday at this time. Against the Aussie we are up +40 bps at 92.2 AUc. Against the euro we are down -20 bps at 52.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today still just over 67.5 and essentially unchanged from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$106,320 and up +0.9% from yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest however at just under +/-1.2%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the relief rally following the US-China trade de-escalation continues, for equities at least. But worries continue about recession and inflation. Investors want higher risk premiums. And it seems China is in no hurry to resume buying from US sources.But first up today, the overnight dairy Pulse auction delivered similar but slightly lower results for both SMP and WMP that were achieved at last week's full auction, basically confirming the recent shifts, especially the up-shift for WMP.The April US CPI inflation rate came in at 2.3%, a touch lower than the 2.4% expected and which applied for March. That was largely due to fuel costs falling more sharply (-11.8%). The costs of food (+2.8%), rents (+4.0%) and transport (+2.5%) were all higher.Last week's Redbook tracking of US retail sales recorded a +5.8% rise from the same week a year ago. We will likely see this fade as the tariff-induced buying eases off now.The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index dropped in April to its lowest level since October 2024. But the retreat wasn't quite as much as was expected.US household debt data updates were a mixed bag. Total household debt rose +$167 bln from the prior quarter to a record high of $18.2 tln in Q1-2025. Delinquency rates rose from the previous quarter, with 4.3% of outstanding debt now in some stage of delinquency.US importers of Chinese goods still face much higher costs. The net position after the tempest and pullback is 'worse' for inflation, and negative for trade. Struggle is all ahead for global trade.In India, CPI inflation fell to 3.2% in April, and that is its lowest rate since before the pandemic. Food prices were up only +1.8% within that. The current overall inflation rate is now well below their central bank's 4% mid-point target. If it stays there, a rate cut in India may be on the cards.In Germany, there was a sharp bounce-back in the ZEW sentiment survey tracking in May, putting the unusual drop in April behind it. The survey indicates growing optimism for the next six months, driven by the formation of a new federal government there, progress in resolving tariff disputes, and signs of stabilising inflation. Nearly all sectors reported improved sentiment in May.In Australia, updated data seems to indicate that Kiwis are losing the desire to visit there. That said there were 104,600 visits by Kiwis in March, -9.3% fewer than in March 2024 and almost -10% fewer than in March 2018 (a pre-pandemic equivalent). For the year to March 2025, we made 1.367 mln visits to Australia, little different (+1.4%) to the same year in 2024. It is a similar story for Aussies visiting New Zealand. In March 2025 it was -1.7% less than the same month a year earlier.Consumer sentiment in Australia has stayed weak in March, according to a widely-watched Westpac-MM survey.We should probably note that good weather and favourable growing conditions in almost all regions has boosted wheat production - and is pushing down prices. They are now back to levels they first achieved ten years ago and are almost -60% lower than their peak in 2022. For similar reasons, corn prices are falling now too.The UST 10yr yield is at 4.50%, up +4 bps so far today.There rate may go higher. A Reuters poll of bond investors shows them increasingly concerned about both a global recession, and rising inflation. That is, stagflation.The price of gold will start today at US$3243/oz, and up +US$20 from yesterday.Oil prices are up +US$1.50 today at just over US$63.50/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is just over US$66.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 59.4 USc, up +90 bps from yesterday at this time. Against the Aussie we are down -50 bps at 91.7 AUc. Against the euro we are up +30 bps at 53.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just under 67.9 and up a net +50 bps from this time yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$104,161 and back up +2.7% from yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has remained modest at just on +/- 1.7%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Fonterra's new Managing Director of Co-operative Affairs reviews another outstanding GDT Auction overnight (up 4.6%, WMP + 6.2%) as the 24/25 season draws to a close.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news we are in for a day of significant announcements, but locally and internationally.But first up today, the overnight full dairy auction brought higher prices, up +4.6% in USD terms and up +3.0% in NZD terms. Of note, the butter price hit a new all-time record high of US$74992/tonne. Also, cheddar cheese rose a very sharp +12.0% from the prior full event, and the dominant WMP price was up a heady +6.2%. This has been a very positive outcome, even if it was on relatively low off-season volumes.There seemed to be two big background drivers. First, EU production is slipping and today's NZ auction prices seem to be equalising with European pricing. And secondly, there was a substantial increase in demand from Southeast Asian buyers, shifting from EU supply. Today's result will bring upside to the payout - if it is maintaintained in future events.Elsewhere, there was a good rise in US retail sales last week, up +6.9% from the same week a year ago in the Redbook survey. But as we have noted previously, it is now hard to separate the inflationary effect of the tariff taxes from volume gains. It is about now that the tariff-tax impact will start happening. All eyes are on Apple, because they won't be able to avoid price hikes much longer now.Retaliatory tariff taxes also juiced up US exports in both goods and services in March but it was minor and similar to February. US imports however shot up to a new all-time record high. So the American trade deficit also hit a new record exceeding -$140 bln for the monthNone of this is helping sentiment. The latest survey, this one the RealClearMarkets/TIPP Economic Optimism Index retreated in May from April when a gain was anticipated. It was at its lowest in seven months.Meanwhile, the US logistics managers index returned to more usual levels, but allowing it to do that were rises in inventory and freight costs, rather than the efficiency components.There was a well-supported US Treasury 10 year bond auction earlier today, and that delivered a median yield of 4.28% which was down -6 bps from the prior equivalent event a month ago.Tomorrow will be dominated by the US Fed's meeting outcome. Changed interest rates are unlikely, but there will be intense interest in how they view the present and future economic landscape.In Canada, the widely-watched local Ivey PMI turned into contraction in April.In China, the Caixin Services PMI expansion eased back in April, down from March's three-month high to be below analyst forecasts. This is now the softest expansion in their services sector in seven months. But this Caixin version reported a slightly faster expansion than the official version.There is a lot going on today, and amongst that we are expecting a significant Chinese briefing by their central bank and other regulators about new moves to respond to their economic pressures triggered by the tariff war.In Europe, their April services PMI didn't fall into contraction as expected. Rather it stayed just on the positive side. But it is an anemic expansion all the same.In Australia, household spending slipped in March from February, to be +3.5% higher than March 2024. Of special note was the very sharp -1.3% dive in Queensland.There was an even sharper retreat in building consents in Australia in March with a big -15% dive in consents for building apartments.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.31%, down -3 bps from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$3414/oz, and up +US$101 from yesterday, and heading back towards its April 23 record high.Oil prices are firmer today, up +US$2 at just on US$59/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is now just under US$62.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 60 USc, up +40 bps from yesterday at this time. Against the Aussie we are up +0 bps at 92½ AUc. Against the euro we are up +50 bps at 52.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just under 68 and up +10 bps. The Japanese yen has strengthened to limit the TWI-5 shift.The bitcoin price starts today down a mere -0.3% from yesterday at US$94,563. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at +/- 0.9%.Join us at 10:45am for the release of the important March quarter jobs report for New Zealand. We are expecting no rise in employment and a rise in the unemployment rate to 5.3%. Variations from that might be market-moving.And then at 2pm we will be covering the RBNZ's half-yearly Financial Stability Report. This will be Christian Hawkesby's first big set piece presentation as Governor, a role he holds until at least October.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Delve into the world of horror classics with a deep dive into The Blair Witch Project & The Witch. Explore found footage horror & supernatural elements! Unearthing Horror Classics: The Blair Witch Project & The Witch - A Deep Dive Courtney and Just Blane embark on a thrilling discussion of two genre-defining horror films: 'The Blair Witch Project' and 'The Witch.' They delve into the groundbreaking found footage technique of The Blair Witch, its clever marketing, and its lasting impact on the horror genre. Meanwhile, they explore the atmospheric horror and historical accuracy of The Witch, the symbolism of its storytelling, and its thematic connections to folklore and superstition. Along the way, they share personal insights, interesting trivia, and compelling theories about both films, making this episode a must-watch for horror enthusiasts. Chapters 00:00 WMP_005_Blair_Vvitch 00:08 Introduction to The Witch Movie Project 00:39 Discussing The Blair Witch Project 02:36 The Impact and Marketing of The Blair Witch Project 05:03 Personal Experiences and Cultural Impact 06:27 Analyzing the Realism and Techniques 09:13 The Legacy of The Blair Witch Project 23:05 Folklore and Symbolism in The Blair Witch Project 32:00 Transition to The Witch (2015) 33:13 Natural Lighting and Historical Accuracy 33:42 The Puritan Banishment 35:57 The Family's Struggles Begin 37:13 The Disappearance of the Baby 37:55 Symbolism and Superstition 40:40 The Director and Cast 43:28 The Silver Cup and Family Tensions 46:13 The Corn and Ergot Theory 47:45 Thomasin's Transformation 01:00:15 The Role of Black Phillip 01:08:30 Final Thoughts and Reflections

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news negative data is starting to flow more aggressively in the US as the consequences of dumb policy show through. It been a track to decline for the first 100 days of Trump II.First, the US Redbook index of retail sales rose +6.1% last week from the week before, but the strong suspicion is that much of this is inflation-related.And that is supported by a sharp drop in consumer sentiment reported by the Conference Board, down to a 13 year low in April and confirming the UofM earlier sentiment survey.US job openings fell by -288,000 to 7.192 mln in March, down -901,000 from a year ago to the lowest level in six months and well below market expectations of 7.5 mln. The drop was broad-based. Their quit rate rose to an 8 month high.The US trade deficit in goods widened sharply to -US$162 bln in March, the largest on record, and well above the expected -US$146 bln gap as tariff threats drove US importers to front-load their purchases. Unsurprisingly, that alos generated a spike in wholesale inventories.This bad trade result probably cements a very weak Q1-2025 GDP result. The next AtlantaFed GDP Now update will come tomorrow, and is unlikely to be pretty.The Dallas Fed's services sector survey pointed to weaker conditions and a weaker outlook.The Canadian election has resulted in a narrow win for the center-left (in North American terms) Liberals and the Quebec coalition partner. This is an unusual fourth consecutive win for the Liberals, and an unlikely one, very much aided by Trump trolling. It will be a tough gig because they are clearly facing recession, also flowing from the newly-fractious US relationship.The ECB survey on consumer inflation expectations in the euro-zone rose in March with the year ahead expectation up to 2.9%, its highest in a year.EU consumer sentiment dropped in March and to its lowest since December.And we should probably note that Denmark says it wants the EU to join the CPTPP.In Australia, there are three days left of campaigning in their federal election. Polling is tightening. Despite those polls still showing Labour ahead, much will depend on how voters rank their preferences, which could make it rather close.The overnight dairy Pulse auction came in better than the futures market signaled. The SMP price rose as expected and to its highest in a year, but the WMP price did not fall as expected, rather it showed a small gain and to its highest in three years.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.17%, down another -4 bps from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$3319/oz, and down -US$17 from yesterday.Oil prices are down -US$1.50 at just on US$60.50/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is down a bit less, now just under US$64.50/bbl. These are two-week lows as global trade tensions and weak US data dampened the demand outlook.The Kiwi dollar is now at 59.4 USc, down -0.2% from yesterday at this time. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 93 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 52.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just on 67.6 and down -10 bps.The bitcoin price starts today up +1.3% from yesterday at US$95,401. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at +/- 0.9%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news reality and expectations seem to be diverging.But first up today we can report that the weekly dairy Pulse auction for SMP and WMP brought little-change in the WMP price from the previous full GDT auction in USD, while the SMP price rose +3.0% on that same basis, but basically a recovery. However things are reversed in NZD due to the weaker greenback, with the WMP price falling -1.4% and the SMP price only up +1.7% in our currency.Internationally, the IMF warned that rising US tariffs are marking the start of a new global era of slower growth. Since January, sweeping import duties and retaliation are raising trade barriers to levels not seen since the Great Depression. The IMF cut its global growth forecast for 2025 to +2.8% from +3.3%, and sees continued weakness through 2026. The US will be among the hardest hit, with 2025 growth cut to +1.8% from +2.7%. Others like Mexico, Canada, China, and the EU will feel some effects but are likely to be minor compared to the US.Meanwhile, the US Treasury Secretary has told a private meeting the tariff war is unsustainable and will ease 'soon'. News of these remarks has led to a financial market rally. The problem remains however as neither Trump or China show any signs of backing down, and Bessent himself admitted that talks to de-escalate haven't even started. Markets might be getting ahead of themselves, as is Bessent.In the US, the Redbook retail impulse monitor was up +7.4% last week from the same week a year ago, the highest since the end of 2022. But this is becoming more of a measure of inflation than real sales activity as the tariff-taxes get passed through.The Richmond Fed's factory survey for the mid-Atlantic states reported weak results. It plummeted to -13 in April from -4 in the previous month, and well below market expectations. It is the sharpest decline in factory activity since November. Meanwhile their service sector gauge fell too.The latest and large US Treasury bond auction saw less support, but more than sufficient. However the median yield fell back to 3.74%, compared to the 3.94% at the prior equivalent event a month ago.Canadian producer prices rose +4.7% in the year to March, but they are rising at a quicker pace in recent months. Canada is in its final week of election campaigning.Across the Pacific, Taiwanese export orders rose to the elevated level of US$53 bln in March, but they have been doing this for so long now that the year-on-year gain isn't special for them, 'only' up +12.5%.In the EU, consumer sentiment fell more than expected in April to its lowest level since November 2023.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.39%, a -1 bp dip from this time yesterday. The price of gold will start today at US$3398/oz, and down -US$19 from yesterday.Oil prices have risen +US$1 from yesterday to be now just under US$64/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is now just on US$67.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 59.8 USc, down -20 bps from yesterday at this time. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 93.7 AUc. Against the euro we up +20 bps at just on 52.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today now just on 68 and little-changed from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$91,488 and up +5.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been moderate at +/- 2.6%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the Wall Street and business titans who supported the 2024 Trump campaign are starting to turn on him, one calling the current situation "a clown show".The show has gotten even more extreme overnight. The US has added another 50% to tariffs on its imports from China, taking the total to 104%.But first up today, the overnight GDT Pulse dairy auction saw SMP prices fall a bit more than expected, down -2.6% from last week's full auction. But the WMP price slipped much less than expected, down just -1.8% on the same basis. The falling currency over the past week means there is no net change in NZD. The floating exchange rate is doing its job as a stabiliser.In the US, nominal retail sales surged last week, up +7.2% from the same week a year ago as consumers rushed to stock up on goods ahead of the tariff-induced hikes. That was its fastest rise since late-2022. Some of that 'gain' will have been from early price hikes, of course.Going the other way, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell sharply in March, by its most since June 2022 and to its lowest level since October 2024. This was a much larger fall than anyone saw coming. They anticipated a fall but not like this. The component 'uncertainty index' stayed at record high levels.Americans' appetite for consumer debt actually fell in February by -US$810 mln, the first drop since November. This followed a downwardly revised increase of +US$8.9 bln in January and came in well below the +US$15 bln rise expected. There were sharp and notable drops in demand for credit card debt, and car loan debt.The latest UST 3 year bond auction was well supported. But there was a notable -8.5% drop in total bids this time, the largest easing of support we have seen. It delivered a median yield of 3.70%, down from 3.85% at the prior equivalent event a month ago.In China, there is a notable fall in the price of iron ore, down -12.5% from the start of April. That has yet to show up in the cash USD price of Australian iron ore, but it will soon. For reference the price of copper is down -18% in the same eight days.In China, the 'home team' is stepping up to buy equities to prevent them crashing further. State funds were reported to be very active yesterday. Separately, China is letting its currency weaken as a counterweight to the American tariffs. The yuan (CNY) isn't moving much but trending from the target 7.2:USD, but this official set rate is moving in the same direction as the offshore yuan (CNH) and heading to 7.35:USD. It is now at a 17 year low to the USD. China said it will "fight to the end" opposing the new US tariffs.Australia's NAB business confidence index ticked lower in March 2025 from a revised negative level in February, and it is now at its lowest level since November 2024.Staying in Australia, the Westpac Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment survey is seeing fear rising after the Trump tariff actions. Sentiment is -10% lower among those surveyed after the earlier April US tariff announcements. Aussies are now less confident on prospect of interest rate cuts by the RBA.Internationally, the IAEA says that while there is enough uranium being mined to support nuclear energy demand for the next 25 years, more will be needed if the current high-growth plans for capacity expansion continue, and the world could run out by 2080.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.25%, up +10 bps from this time yesterday. Risk premiums are still rising.The price of gold will start today at just under US$2980/oz, and up +US$14 from yesterday.Oil prices have dropped -US$1.50 from yesterday at just over US$60/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is now just under US$63.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 55.5 USc, unchanged from yesterday at this time. Against the Aussie we are up +40 bps at 92.9 AUc and that's a ten month high. Against the euro we up +10 bps from yesterday at just on 50.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today now just on 65.6 and up +10 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$77,213 and falling, and down another -2.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at +/- 2.6%.Join us at 2pm later today for the Official Cash Rate review, the first by newly appointed interim Governor Christian Hawkesby. A -25 bps cut to 3.50% is widely anticipated, but given the global turmoil, most of the focus will be on how they see those pressures playing out in New Zealand and how they will respond to them.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the world is bracing for the US to start a US$1.4 tln trade war. Tomorrow. The US says it is ready to start hostilities, supposedly with 20% across-the-board levies. Other governments have their retaliation plans ready. Americans are rushing to buy cars they can afford.But first, the overnight dairy auction came in better than the derivatives market had signaled, with an overall rose of +1.1% in USD terms, up +3.2% in NZD terms. WMP prices held steady and avoided the expected dip. SMP prices rose more than expected. But volumes were light, as expected in this part of the dairy season, but actually lower than this time last year. Keeping demand up was bidding from China, while the recent new interest from Europe basically held. Nothing today will change current farmgate milk price forecasts.In the US, retail demand is softening, with their Redbook survey off its peaks and back to average levels since October 2023. That is a notable drop from the November expansion.There were two American factory PMI surveys out overnight. The widely-watched ISM one contracted. This is a turn from an expansion and is not unexpected, but the size of the shift was. New order flows were weak, and the mood is turning even weaker.The internationally benchmarked S&P Global/Markit one fell too, and quite sharply, but not yet into contraction territory. But this one reported a big jump - an outsized jump - in input prices, surely a sign of what is to come. Firms were only able to pass on some of that, but even so it was at a two-year high.American job openings in February fell by -194,000 to 7.57 mln from an upwardly revised 7.76 mln in January and below market expectations of 7.63 mln. Quits fell too as Americans prioritised holding on to the jobs they have.The Dallas Fed services survey reported a notable contraction, with perceptions of broader business conditions worsening in March.And that downshift was also picked up in the RCM/TIPP economic optimism survey which was expected to rise, but in fact fell in April, and to a six month low.In China, although still modest, the Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI rose in March from February's small positive, with a result that was better than market expectations. This marked the highest reading since last November, with output growth accelerating on the back of a sustained rise in new orders amid better demand conditions.The EU March CPI inflation rate eased slightly to 2.2%, to a marginally lower level than expected. Lower energy costs are restraining this indicator.In Australia, February retail sales were ho-hum, up +0.2% from January. That puts them essentially unchanged from the same month in 2024. So after inflation, that means they are -2.4% lower on a volume basis.And as expected, the RBA sat pat with its cash rate target at 4.1%. But once the Federal election is out of the way, markets expect them to cut the policy rate by -25 bps on May 20, 2025.Global air cargo demand is now coming off the boil as trade uncertainties build. The dip at that point wasn't large and it is still ahead year-on-year but with both US and European demand now negative on the year-ago basis, and the Asia expansion slipping rather quickly, it won't be long before we are reporting air cargo activity shrinking.Global air passenger demand held up in February, with the impetus slowed notably. International demand is holding up better than domestic, and the Asia/Pacific region is the best of these. The main weaknesses are in North American air travel.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.15%, down -10 bps from yesterday at this time. The price of gold will start today at just on US$3106/oz and down a net -US$12 from yesterday and off its all-time high.Oil prices are little-changed from yesterday at just under US$71.50/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is now just on US$74.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 56.9 USc and up +20 bps from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 90.8 AUc. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at just over 52.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today now just under 66.5 and up +20 bps.The bitcoin price starts today at US$85,116 and up +2.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at +/- 1.8%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the own goals keep coming for the US.But first, the overnight dairy Pulse auction came in with the opposite results signaled by the derivatives market. The SMP price was expected to bounce back after the weakish full auction event the week before, but basically it didn't. And the WMP price was expected to fall sharply. It did fall, but it was minor in the end. So these Pulse signals ended up changing little.Last night's 2025/26 Australian Budget didn't deliver any real surprises in the end, although it is clearly an election budget. But it is one where the dominant challenge has shifted from battling inflation's effects to preparing for global trade instability, and great power rivalry. Australia is facing being abandoned by the US while it also faces rising security challenges from China.Although they are facing budget deficits that could be -1.5% of GDP next year, and probably ongoing deficits for the next ten years, they are accepting that as they announced new spending of about AU$35 bln with much of it focused on cost of living support, some modest tax cuts, and defense. There is a rise in off-budget spending as well. So their funding program there will be growing fast.In the US, last week's Redbook retail survey showed sales held up to be +5.6% higher than year-ago levels. However with inflation rising, and quite quickly now, this isn't as impressive as it was in 2024 when inflation was basically under control.Those fears of returning inflation (from tariffs) are behind a tumble in American consumer sentiment, reversing to lows not seen since the last Trump presidency. The Conference Board survey's expectations index was particularly hard hit, and now sits at a level they say indicates recession ahead. This survey back up the earlier University of Michigan one.And ratings agency Moody's is warning that even in the best scenario, the US's situation is likely to get worse under the current policy direction.But not all sectors are drooping. New dwelling sales are holding at average levels, up +1.8% in February from a year ago, and up +5.1% from year-ago levels. But inflation might be behind this recent small demand rise - buyers getting in before inflation hits existing stock, and before interest rates rise again.But the next regional Fed district to report is saying things in their Mid-Atlantic region are slowing. The Richmond Fed's factory survey has yawed from a small expansion to a moderate contraction in their March survey. Observers had expected the measure to rise to a faster expansion, so the variance is notable. New order levels fell, prices paid for inputs rose faster than expected. The clearest example is the new record-high rise for copper.An interesting phenonium is developing in US equity markets. Retail investors are turning bullish, driven partly by their political bias. At the same time, professional investors are taking advantage of them and are net sellers.Their northern neighbour is talking about retaliatory export taxes as a way to get Trump to talk to them seriously. Their combination with American tariffs isn't going to help anyone.In Indonesia, their currency crisis is deepening, with the rupiah now at its lowest since the GFC.In China, their central bank has adjusted how it raises funds via its Medium Term Lending process. This may be an important change.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.30%, down -2 bps from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at just on US$3026/oz and up a net +US$17 from yesterday.Oil prices are down -50 USc from yesterday at just over US$68.50/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is still just over US$72.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 57.4 USc and up +20 bps from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 91 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at just under 53.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just under 66.8, and little-changed.The bitcoin price starts today at US$87,803 and down -0.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at +/- 1.2%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Jarden’s head of commodities says giving only a cursory view you would be forgiven for being excited by last night’s unchanged GDT auction result, [WMP 0.2%, SMP -0.4%, AMF -1.8%, Butter 1.1%, and Cheese 1%] when of course the devil lies in the detail. Given how the index is compiled, he says the flat overall result may hide some of the more dramatic moves in the numbers that count to New Zealand dairy farmers.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this episode of the Well Mind Podcast, Dr. Ben Kohls welcomes Dr. Karina Clennon back to the podcast. Karina opens the conversation by sharing about her journey of becoming a professional helper. Together we explore the significance of time and presence in relationships, the challenges of balancing personal and professional roles, and the impact of 'busy'ness culture on mental health. The discussion emphasizes the importance of lifelong learning, agency in time management, and nurturing professional passion and vitality. The episode concludes with reflections on the ripple effect of their work and the joy of making a positive impact on others.Previous Conversations with Dr. Karina Clennon on the podcast.Episode 23 of the WMP: https://open.spotify.com/episode/7bnYOBlNZXnnPy3G6AQDFU?si=TGEIrgI_SsK4xpRETOD6Og Episode 37 of the WMP: https://open.spotify.com/episode/5F1yssp8w9LSv2spsw3dHV?si=4LeLHcAWRAefdGxIPKDaUQ

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the tariff war mess is getting messier.First up, the overnight dairy auction came in a bit better than the futures market suggested it might. This event offered lower volumes at the back end of the current dairy season, and prices eased just -0.5% in USD terms from the last full event, but were up +1.0% in NZD terms. WMP eased -2.2% and that was as expected but butter and the cheeses made better gains than expected. Buying out of China was modest, but there was raised interest from both Europe and the Middle East. In the circumstances this was a solid overall result.Most other commodity prices are taking sizeable hits from the now-daily tariff-war battles. Behind all this is the expectation of falling demand as the US economy makes a sudden detour into recession. China's retaliation on US agricultural exports have seen sharpish falls in wheat and soybean prices.The impacts of the trade war haven't hit US retail sales yet - unless you think American consumers are stocking up ahead of the inflationary effects. There were up +6.6% from the same week a year ago.But they are showing up in sentiment surveys. Today's release was for the RCM/TIPP economic optimism index, and that retreated notably. This index rose in November, but has essentially retreated since and is now net-negative and a five month low.The American need for more warehousing and higher inventories is driving their logistics industry to a three year high. The components that weigh on productivity are getting the gains.The US is using a "fentanyl crisis" (one actually in retreat and one driven by American demand) as an excuse to impose increased tariffs. That alone will be inflationary. The counter-measure responses by Canada, Mexico, and now China will distort large parts of the American economy, and have global resonances.The US tariffs are expected to raise the costs of American carmakers by more than US$60 bln, and will drive most into losses, and may even kill some (like Stellantis). Car demand is expected to fall -12% in the US as a result of the needed higher prices.Financial markets continue to react in a negative way. They have given up any post-election gains, and more. Things could get much worse quite soon. Congress is nowhere near to agreeing a budget funding deal.Meanwhile across the Pacific, Japanese consumer sentiment is falling back too now, and is back to where it was two years ago.On the Australian east coast Cyclone Alfred is barrelling towards Brisbane and northern NSW. It is expected to make landfall as a category 2 storm late on Thursday or early Friday and would be the first tropical cyclone to impact NSW since Nancy in 1990.Today the UST 10yr yield is at 4.19%, down -4 bps from yesterday.The price of gold will start today at just under US$2912/oz and up +US$20 from yesterday.Oil prices are down -US$2/bbl to US$69.50/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is just on US$70.50/bbl. Lower expected demand is why this price is soft.The Kiwi dollar is now at 56.2 USc and down -10 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie however we are up +30 bps at 90.5 AUc. Against the euro we are down another -30 bps at 53.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just over 66.1, and down -10 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price started today at US$82,930 and down a net -7.9% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been extreme at +/- 5.2%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news that is not good. Markets are suddenly gripped by extreme fears of where the world's largest economy is heading.But first up today we can report that the overnight dairy Pulse auction has seen milk powder prices fall. The big fall expected for WMP didn't happen but it was a retreat all the same. The small fall expected for SMP actually came in more pronounced than expected. Both shifts have ended the recent run up in these prices although they probably don't necessarily end the higher trending. Neither correction was enough to unstitch that at this event. But uncertainty is back all the same.US data releases overnight remained resilient. The US retail impulse, as measured by the Redbook survey, held strong, unchanged and up +6.2% from the same week a year ago.The next Richmond Fed factory survey moved up a bit but is now showing an expansion, its most since October 2023. This was a better result than anticipated and in complete contrast to yesterday's Texas survey.The Dallas Fed's services survey eased back, but is still expanding although the trend has turned down mainly because the outlook uncertainty is rising.But none of this data trumped the fast-rising doom mood in the US. The latest Conference Board survey of consumer sentiment was particularly negative. Its reading of consumer confidence registered the largest monthly decline since August 2021. Although other similar surveys like the PMIs and the University of Michigan one showed the same trend, this latest one was worse and has just compounded the negative mood.Risk aversion sentiment is gripping financial markets today. Wall Street is lower, the US Treasury bond prices are surging (yields falling), yield inversions are returning, and the USD is rising, in the normal reaction to a risk-off mood. Everyone from consumers to the financial market professionals know the US is going the wrong way with its public policy.And we should probably note that the Tesla share price is down more than -8% so far today, down -14% in a week and down -20% since the start of the year. The "move-fast-and-break-things" strategy isn't proving to be a good business practice.There was another US Treasury 5yr auction today and the well-supported event delivered a yield of 4.07%, lower than the the 4.29% at the equivalent event a month ago.Elsewhere, Taiwanese retail sales are on the rise, up +5.3% in January from a year ago in a strong showing, much better than expected. Meanwhile, Taiwanese industrial production growth eased, but only back to the levels expected.South Korea's central bank cut its policy rate by -25 bps to 2.75% yesterday. This was as expected. It is their third cut since this rate peaked in January 2023 at 3.5%. Their cutting cycle started in October 2024.In China, exports through Hong Kong fell to a one year low in January, and a sharp retreat from December. This is the weakest growth in exports activity after sharp reversals for exports of electrical machinery, and household appliances.In Australia, regulator ASIC is warning of the risks of investing in private markets, a growing trend recently. The opacity of valuations, liquidity and governance has them worried.And as the Aussies get ready for a probably May election, it has been standard to expect the ruling Labor Party to lose, mainly because incumbents are losing elsewhere. But a new poll suggests a change may in fact not happen there. No doubt they are encouraged by the German election where essentially the center held.The UST 10yr yield is at 4.31%, down -10 bps from yesterday at this time. The price of gold will start today at just under US$2894/oz and down -US$48 from yesterday.Oil prices are down -US$2 at just under US$69/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is now just under US$73/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 57.2 USc and down -20 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 90.3 AUc. Against the euro we are down -40 bps at 54.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just on 66.9, and down -30 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$87,309 and down a massive -7.7% from this time yesterday. Bitcoin has dropped about 20% since Trump's January inauguration, as initial optimism over his crypto-friendly stance fades. Bitcoin wasn't the only crypto to drop. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been very high at +/- 4.8%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news inflation is still not beat and the new tariff wars are messing with when that might happen.First up today, there was another dairy auction, and this one came in weaker than the derivatives markets had anticipated. Prices slipped overall by -0.6% in USD terms and by -1.5% in NZD terms. It was a much lower SMP price that was the surprise undershoot, down -2.5% from the prior event and last week's Pulse event. Cheddar cheese also took a -3.4% tumble, whereas the WMP price was only -0.2% lower than the last event, but it didn't fall as much as the derivatives market anticipated. Going the other way, there was a -2.2% rise in the butter price, taking it to almost matching its record high in June 2024. It is at its record high in NZD. Overall, of note today, "North Asia" (ie China) returned with renewed demand to be the top buyer, after largely sitting on the sidelines recently.In the US, the New York region factory survey turned from a negative to a positive expansion in February, a continuation of an improving trend that started in early 2024 but one that has been volatile.But their national survey of house builders turned more cautious in February, hurt by tariff-talk and the expected resulting inflation.In Canada they reported January CPI inflation, and that came in at 1.9% and pretty much as expected. But the "trimmed mean" core rate came in at 2.7%, the one the Bank of Canada follows, above the December level of 2.6% and well above the expected 2.5% level. This is going the wrong way for them and they may now skip the expected March rate cut.We should probably note that German business sentiment rose in February, ahead of this weekend's federal elections, on the hope that a new government won't get stuck in coalition paralysis. More broadly, EU business sentiment is rising too.The Reserve Bank of Australia cuts its policy rate by -25 bps to 4.1%, much as expected by financial markets, citing progress on getting inflation down towards its target range. It was their first cut since 2020. But it was a hawkish cut, and post-election there may not be any more until the clear inflation pressures ease, especially those expected from the looming tariff war. Despite that, financial markets are still pricing in at least two more rate cuts in 2025.The UST 10yr yield is at 4.54%, up +5 bps from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at just under US$2931/oz and up +US$33 from yesterday.Oil prices are up +50 USc at just over US$71.50/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is now at US$75.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 57 USc and down -40 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -30 bps at 89.8 AUc. Against the euro we are down -20 bps at 54.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just over 66.9, and down -30 bps from this time yesterday and has been among the largest devaluers over the past 24 hours.The bitcoin price starts today at US$94,789 and down another -0.7% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at +/- 1.1%.Join us at 2pm this afternoon for full coverage of the RBNZ's Monetary Policy Statement. And before that, we will have the January REINZ results at 9am.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Fonterra’s president of global market ingredients reviews another great GDT auction with a 3.7% rise across the board (WMP +4.1%, SMP +4.7%). So, if $10 is locked in, what about $11 for 24/25?See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news it remains unclear what happens next after the chaotic round of US tariffs on their closest trade partners, and then their unexpected suspension.But first up this morning, we can report a strong dairy auction result, with prices up +3.7% in USD terms and up +4.0% in NZD terms. The key WMP price was up +4.1% in USD terms and is now sitting much higher than the anticipated US$4000 level. There were a couple of key factors at play today. First, despite rising NZ production, the volume of product on offer was down, and along with lower US and Australian milk production, there is a supply squeeze. And secondly, there was strong pre-Ramadan buying although not so much from China as anticipated. Where each component has landed can be checked in our dual-currency charts that also interleave the Pulse results for SMP and WMP as well. There are some new high benchmarks achieved today, especially the WMP price in NZD.And, yes, the strength of this auction will have analysts reassessing their payout forecasts. But they will probably hold back because of where we are in the season. However, the base is now quite strong.US job openings fell by -556,000 to 7.6 million in December, to a lot less than anticipated and indicating a definite cooling of the American labour market. Clearly employers were uncertain about how the post-election landscape would play out. And this came well before the aggressive purging of Federal government jobs now underway.Perhaps worse, new orders for manufactured goods sank -0.9% in December from November, extending the revised -0.8% drop in the previous month, and firmly below market expectations of a lesser decline. It was the sharpest monthly drop since June.But retail sales were up +5.7% last week from the same week a year ago on a same-store basis and that was an improvement. However you have to wonder whether this rise was motivated by buying ahead of expected price rises flowing from the signaled tariff increases.Surging inventory levels has seen the US Logistics Manager's Index jump in January from December to its fastest expansion of the logistics since June 2022. Underlying growth and the uncertainty surrounding trade regulations, particularly the tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China, drove the defensive inventory moves.On the trade war front, the US delayed its tariff imposition in both Mexico and Canada by a month, but China set in motion is retaliation, a mixture of its own countervailing tariffs especially on coal, oil and natural gas, plus major 'investigations' of Google, Nvidia and Intel. It also banned exports of some key minerals. But analysts thing there is more symbolism here than hard penalties. They are being saved for later in the game.In Canada, consumer boycotts may have a bigger effect than official retaliation. Other major economies are also readying their retaliation, including Japan and the EU. If all of them act in unison, the impact of just these five big trading blocs will be substantial for the US (and themselves of course).China thinks it can win the trade war with the US just by letting the yuan sink. In fact, all currencies vs the USD are falling. That way imports become cheaper for US buyers, and US exports become more expensive (and less attractive) to overseas customers. It is lose-lose for the US. Trump is fighting natural market forces with unnatural tariffs.Join us at 10:45am this morning when we will report the Q4-2025 unemployment rate. Markets expect it to have risen to 5.1% from the Q3 4.8%. Any variance from that will have implications for the February OCR review due on the 18th of this month.The UST 10yr yield is at 4.52%, unchanged from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at US$2840/oz and up +US$23 from yesterday and another new record high.Oil prices are virtually unchanged again at just on US$72.50/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is now US$76/bbl and a tad firmer.The Kiwi dollar is now at 56.2 USc and up +20 bps from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -20 bps at 90.3 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at just on 54.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just on 66.9, and up +20 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$99,502 and up another minor +0.6% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at +/- 2.2%.We should finally note that tomorrow (Thursday, February 6, 2025) is a public holiday in New Zealand and there won't be a Breakfast Briefing edition. It will return on Friday.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Friday.

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news about the start of a tariff trade war, a reprise of a 1930s effort, also started by the US, and one that ended badly for everyone.The week ahead was supposed to be basically about jobs, both here and in the US with our HLFS data for December out on Thursday, and the US non-farm payrolls report out for January on Saturday. But Trump's imposition of 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, and 10% tariffs on China will no doubt dominate the news with its consequences.However there will be other economic data news coming, including key Wall Street earnings reports, January PMIs, central bank decisions from India and the UK, and China's financial markets will return to work after their CNY break on Wednesday. Also, Chinese buyers may be back at Wednesday's GDT dairy auction on Wednesday, which will be an important event after last week's sharp run-up in the WMP price at the Pulse event.And don't forget, this will be an interrupted week with a public holiday in New Zealand on Thursday, Waitangi Day. So Friday is likely to be a day many people also take off to get a four-day weekend. (But not us, of course.)The big news over the weekend was the US imposing 25% tariffs on its neighbours Canada and Mexico. Worryingly, these mean the US has unilaterally broken its (Trump-imposed) CUSMA (or NAFTA 2.0) trade treaty obligations. And more of an issue for any country contemplating making a treaty with the new US Administration is that the basis for these new tariffs are essentially jingoistic and trumped-up, that pretend anecdotes are "common sense" when they are just raw self-servicing prejudice.Mexico and Canada hit back immediately. Canada also imposed a 10% tariff on their oil exports to the US. China is going through the WTO dispute process.An easy way to keep an eye on US inflation is to watch the daily US petrol price. As at today it is US$3.10/gal. We will check back regularly to watch how tariffs impact that. Of course demand will impact that too.How will this affect New Zealand? Here are some early thoughts.Earlier the alternate US inflation measure, "the one the Fed watches", their personal consumption expenditures price index, rose +0.3% in December from November, the highest gain in eight months, but it was the rise expected. That means their year-on-year PCE inflation came in at 2.6% and it's highest in seven months by this measure. The new tariffs are likely to mean higher inflation, something Trump acknowledged in a Fox interview.There were no surprises in any of the income, consumption, or savings data in the PCE release. This may turn out to be the low point in their inflation cycle.The January Chicago PMI recovered from the weak December result on the back of better new order inflows and higher production levels. But it remains in deep contraction territory. The outlook responses in this regional survey weren't very bright.In Canada, apart from the new tariffs from the US, they are wrestling with what the 25 year 'extreme' difference means between their policy interest rate, 3.00% and the US Fed's "4.25% to 4.50%". In market terms that is a 140 bps discount the Canadians carry. It has been thought that +/-100 bps is in the comfort zone for financial markets, so we may start to see reactions and implications. There could be lessons for other economies, although Canada may be facing extra pressures from the tariffs.Japanese industrial production rose in December from November and that limited the year-on-year decrease to less than expected.Japanese retail sales rose +3.7% in December from the same month in 2023, up from a +2.8% gain in November, and better than market expectations of a +3.2% rise. This is the 33rd straight month of expansion in retail sales and the fastest growth since June 2024. Rising pay levels are getting the credit for the expansion.In India, a new Union (national) Budget has cut income taxes (see pages 28 and 29), in the hope it will arrest the cooling of their economic activity by enhancing domestic demand. Those earning about NZ$24,000 pa will pay no tax, and the tax bands above that have been indexed higher. They will still run a deficit of -4.4% of GDP if they can maintain a +6.8% growth rate. They will pay for the tax cuts by restraining their spend on updating their infrastructure. India also cut tariffs.In Argentina, their central bank cut its policy interest rate by -300 bps to 29% on Friday NZT, as inflation eased again. But annual inflation in Argentina was still at 118% in December, the softest increase since July 2023, down from 166% in November.EU inflation expectations rose to 2.8% in the ECB's December survey, taking it back to early 2024 levels. In the ECB MPS, they noted there is still more work to do to quash these expectations. Actual EU inflation ended 2024 at 2.7% and it too is rising.Aussie producer prices rose +3.7% in December from a year ago, but even if that is high, it was their slowest rise since early 2021.The UST 10yr yield is at 4.54%, up +3 bps from Saturday at this time. The price of gold will start today at US$2799/oz and down -US$10 from Saturday and off its all-time high.Oil prices are virtually unchanged at just on US$72.50/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is now US$75.50/bbl and holding the Saturday retreat.The Kiwi dollar is now at 56.4 USc and down -40 bps from this time Saturday. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 90.7 AUc. Against the euro we are little-changed at just under 54.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just on 67.1, and down -10 bps from Saturday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$98,142 and down a sharp -6.5% from this time Saturday. Apparently isolationism and tariffs are not good for crypto. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at +/- 2.1%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Jarden's head of commodities comments on reversal in fortunes with last night's 1.4% increase in the GDT auction mirroring the fall in the first auction of the new calendar year (WMP 5%, SMP 2%, AMF -7.8%, Butter 2.2%, and Cheese 2.8%). Does this lock in Fonterra's $10 milk price? Which is where the futures market is currently sitting. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Fonterra's high-flying chief executive says a $10 milk price is still on the cards, despite a 2.8% easing in the GDT auction overnight (with WMP and SMP both down 2.9%), as the drop is cushioned by a softer exchange rate.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

De markt van vermogensbeheerders staat voor meerdere uitdagingen. Aan de ene kant consolideert de markt, maar aan de andere kant springen de private equity fondsen ook als paddestoelen uit de grond. Maar waarom zou je je als vermogende verbinden aan private markten, als je net zo makkelijk je vermogen in een indexfonds kan stoppen? En: hoe houd je je als onafhankelijke vermogensbeheerder staande in een markt die consolideert?  Olimpia den Hartogh, directeur en partner van vermogensbeheerder WMP in BNR Zakendoen.    Macro met Mujagić   Elke dag een intrigerende gedachtewisseling over de stand van de macro-economie. Op maandag en vrijdag gaat presentator Thomas van Zijl in gesprek met econoom Arnoud Boot, de rest van de week praat Van Zijl met econoom Edin Mujagić.   Beleggerspanel  Waarom vindt Unilever het tijd voor afscheid van meerdere voedingsmerken van het bedrijf? En: hoe hard wordt de Nederlandse chipmachinefabrikant ASM geraakt door nieuwe Amerikaanse restricties tegen China?   Panelleden:  - Karel Mercx, Beleggingsspecialist bij Beleggers Belangen  - Martijn Rozemuller, Head of Europe bij VanEck.    Contact & Abonneren   BNR Zakendoen zendt elke werkdag live uit van 11:00 tot 13:30 uur. Je kunt de redactie bereiken via e-mail. Abonneren op de podcast van BNR Zakendoen kan via bnr.nl/zakendoen, of via Apple Podcast en Spotify. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

 Fonterra's COO comments on yet another good GDT Auction (up 1.9%, WMP + 3.2%) and the prospects of a $10 milk price.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We find the chief executive of Fonterra at the 7th annual China International Import Expo in Shanghai where we talk about a great GDT auction overnight (up 4.8%, WMP + 4.4%, SMP + 4%), and the prospects of a $10 payout and possible dairy conversions.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Fonterra's Chicago-based President Global Ingredients comments on another very good GDT auction (up 1.2%, WMP + 3%) and talks about the new strategy message he's giving Fonterra farmers on the current road show.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Fonterra's head of cooperative affairs reviews another positive GDT auction; up 0.8%. WMP +1.5%, SMP +2.2%, AMF -1.2%, Butter -1.7%, and Cheese +2.9%. Plus, today Fonterra announced a further $150m investment earmarked for a new cool store at its Whareroa site in Taranaki, following recent investments in Edendale ($150m) and Studholme ($75m). All up -  $375m.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

“It is a team effort to protect public health from Legionella.” - Alberto Comazzi, Ph.D. We are excited to welcome back Alberto Comazzi, Ph.D. of Sanipur US, for his third appearance on the Scaling UP! H2O Podcast. As an expert in waterborne pathogens, Alberto shares his invaluable insights and experiences about Legionella to help our audience stay informed and proactive in managing water systems. In this episode, we cover a wide range of topics from handling positive Legionella tests to the effectiveness of monochloramine in disinfection. Let's dive into the key points of our discussion. How do you handle a call from a client panicking about their first positive Legionella test? Alberto advises us to stay calm and follow the pre-established plan outlined in the Water Management Plan (WMP). First, review the WMP to understand the specific steps to take for this scenario. Consider the positivity rates and the location where Legionella was found. By following the agreed-upon plan, you can address the client's concerns effectively and ensure proper action is taken.  Why have we seen Legionella increase by nearly ten times over the past few years? “5-6 years ago there wasn't much information about Legionella, and today so many people are interested in this field which protects public health.” - Alberto Comazzi, PhD Dr. Comazzi highlights two key factors behind the significant rise in Legionella cases: 1. Enhanced Water Testing and Awareness: The past few years have seen a substantial increase in both awareness and testing for Legionella. Healthcare professionals are now more informed about the risks of Legionella and are conducting more tests. Since 2017, the requirement for Water Management Plans (WMPs) in healthcare facilities has led to more comprehensive water testing, contributing to the rise in detected cases. 2. Increased Water Age in Buildings: Efforts to conserve water, which have important environmental benefits such as saving energy and reducing costs, have inadvertently led to higher water age in building systems. When water remains in systems for longer periods, it can lead to reduced disinfectant levels and higher water temperatures—conditions that promote Legionella growth. While water conservation is crucial, balancing it with effective Legionella control measures is essential for maintaining public health. By understanding these factors, we can better address and mitigate Legionella risks, ensuring a safer environment for everyone. What advice do you have for those putting together a WMP but who doesn't have the ASSE 1280 Certification? Get Certified or Seek Expert Help: Creating a comprehensive Water Management Plan (WMP) can be complex. While obtaining ASSE 1280 certification is highly recommended, you can also consider hiring a consultant to help you draft your plan. However, it's crucial to ensure that you execute and document the plan effectively. Proper training for facility operators on temperature control, flushing procedures, disinfectant management, and documentation is essential. “A Water Management Plan that's just sitting on the shelf isn't doing anyone any good. If no one implements the plan, it is useless.” Dr. Alberto Comazzi emphasizes, “Proactive measures are better and more cost-effective than reactive ones.” With upcoming due diligence plans addressing various waterborne pathogens, being prepared is key. Who has responsibility when it comes to municipal water? Alberto reminds us that there is a division between the municipality and the building. Municipal Water Responsibility: Municipal water suppliers are responsible for providing water that meets regulatory standards up to the distribution system. They conduct primary disinfection to inactivate most microorganisms and secondary disinfection to maintain a residual disinfectant. However, there are no enforceable limits for Legionella in the municipal water supply, and testing for Legionella is not required. Building-Level Responsibility: Once water leaves the municipal system and enters a building, the responsibility for water safety, including Legionella control, falls to the building owner or manager. Building environments, with their complex plumbing systems, cooling towers, and hot water systems, can foster Legionella growth. Therefore, effective management and control measures at the building level are crucial for ensuring water safety. Monochloramine vs. Chlorine: Which is better Disinfection and Legionella Control in Building Water Systems? Alberto highlights the advantages of monochloramine over chlorine: Case Study Results: A case study in San Francisco showed that switching from chlorine to monochloramine in the municipal water supply significantly reduced Legionella positivity rates in buildings—from 60% to 3-4%. This demonstrates the effectiveness of monochloramine in providing better overall disinfection due to its stability and ability to maintain higher disinfectant levels in building plumbing systems. Comparison with Chlorine: Monochloramine, unlike chlorine, is less reactive with organic materials in water and thus produces fewer regulated disinfection byproducts. It is a more stable disinfectant, which makes it less likely to form harmful byproducts while still providing effective disinfection. Effectiveness in Building Systems: In building water systems, especially those with low water usage or higher temperatures, monochloramine's stability is advantageous. It provides a more consistent and longer-lasting disinfectant presence throughout the system, reaching all areas effectively, which is crucial for preventing Legionella growth. What long-term effects on sustainability and equipment should we consider when balancing water conservation with the use of additional disinfectants in buildings? Alberto outlines key considerations: Corrosion Impact: When installing additional disinfectants, consider their potential to corrode plumbing systems. High levels of corrosive disinfectants can damage plumbing, so it's crucial to balance disinfection effectiveness with the preservation of the building's infrastructure. Water Quality Effects: Assess whether the chosen disinfectant might increase other harmful molecules in the water. Evaluate disinfection efficacy not only in the lab but also in real-world building settings to ensure it does not negatively impact overall water quality. Review Published Data: Refer to peer-reviewed literature and research from credible sources like the EPA to verify the long-term effects of disinfectants on water systems. Reliable data helps ensure that the disinfectant does not introduce unintended consequences and maintains water quality over time. How did monochloramine perform in controlling Pseudomonas compared to traditional methods? In a case study, monochloramine was implemented in facilities with Pseudomonas issues and proved effective in reducing colonization. "Unlike short-term solutions like flushing and hyperchlorination, monochloramine's stability allowed it to reach all parts of the distribution system, providing long-term control" shares Alberto. Timestamps 01:00 - Trace Blackmore invites you to celebrate Legionella Awareness Month  05:50 - Upcoming Events for Water Treatment Professionals 11:00 - Interview with Alberto Comazzi, Ph.D. 01:01:30 - Drop by Drop with James McDonald Connect with Alberto Comazzi, Ph.D. Phone: 267-326-2353 Email: a.comazzi@sanipur.com Website: www.sanipur.com    Linkedin: /in/alberto-comazzi-phd-132637128/  company/sanipur-us-llc Technical Paper: Emerging Waterbone Pathogens in Buildings' Premise Plumbing System Links Mentioned All links mentioned on this episode can be found on our Legionella Resources page HERE The Rising Tide Mastermind Scaling UP! H2O Academy video courses Drop By Drop with James In today's episode, I have a challenge for you.  Today's challenge is…test boiler sulfite both immediately after sampling and again an hour later on the same, open sample.  Is there a difference?  Why is there a difference?  What would be the impact of waiting until later to run the sulfite test versus running it immediately?  How might your recommendations be different?  Could the way you run your test impact your results, such as how much you agitate the sample? 2024 Events for Water Professionals Check out our Scaling UP! H2O Events Calendar where we've listed every event Water Treaters should be aware of by clicking HERE.

Fonterra's Chicago-based President Global Markets Ingredients reviews a jaw-dropping good GDT auction overnight (+ 5.5%, with WMP up a whopping 7.2%).  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The chief executive of Fonterra reviews a very good GDT auction (up 0.5%, WMP + 2.4%) when the commentary was suggesting the step ups in August volumes, especially WMP (+~60%) were always going to be a tough ask, all the more so considering what happened in the July increases. However, the extra product was seemingly consumed with ease. And are we "sleepwalking" into an energy crisis?   See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

There's another crucial Global Dairy Trade auction taking place tonight as a new season kicks into gear. Rabobank analyst Emma Higgins has predicted WMP and SMP will move lower overnight. The Country's Jamie Mackay explains further. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Hello Scaling UP! Nation, August is Legionella Awareness Month, and we're excited to bring you in-depth insights on this crucial topic. Usually, we bring you four episodes every August, but this year, you're in luck! With five Fridays this month, we have five episodes packed with valuable information for you. Today, podcast host Trace Blackmore, CWT, is here to answer your pressing questions about Legionella. As industrial water treaters, you are the heroes in the fight against Legionella, protecting your communities and clients against this dangerous bacteria. Scaling up your Legionella knowledge is a great way to celebrate Legionella Awareness Month, and to support you, we've created a free Legionella resources page at www.ScalingUpH2o.com/Legionella Understanding Legionella: Common Questions Answered What is the difference between Legionella and Legionnaires' disease? Legionella is a bacteria responsible for Legionnaires' disease, a type of pneumonia that comes from getting ill after being exposed to Legionella. It thrives in water and poses significant health risks. Legionnaires' disease was discovered in the mid 1970's after several attendees of the American Legion convention got sick after attending the convention. How does a person get Legionnaires' disease? Inhaling water contaminated with Legionella bacteria can lead to infection. What are the symptoms of Pontiac Fever or Legionnaires' disease? Early symptoms mimic the flu, but more severe pneumonia-like symptoms can develop. Look out for high fever, cough, difficulty breathing, chills, and diarrhea.  How common is Legionnaires' disease? Per the CDC, in 2015 there were approximately 6,000 cases reported in the United States. Who is at higher risk for developing Legionnaires' disease? While most people have resistance, fewer than 5 in 100 exposed individuals may develop the disease. High-risk groups include older adults, smokers, and those with weakened immune systems. How does Legionella enter buildings? Legionella enters through a building's makeup water. This is why we need to test the water coming into a building's system and also set up a program to test within the system so we know what to do and respond appropriately if a test comes back positive for Legionella bacteria. What promotes Legionella growth? Biofilm, temperature fluctuations, inadequate disinfectant levels, and water stagnation within building water systems can promote Legionella growth What are Water Management Programs (WMPs)? WMPs are designed to identify hazardous conditions and minimize the growth and spread of waterborne pathogens, including Legionella, in building water systems. How Should I Discuss Legionella Testing Frequency with a Client Who Only Wants to Test Once a Year? When discussing Legionella testing with a client who only wants to test once a year, emphasize the importance of more frequent testing for safety and compliance. Here's how to approach the conversation: Encourage Regular Testing: I always encourage people to test for Legionella at least every season or quarter. Regular testing helps identify potential issues early, ensuring the safety of your water system. Refer to the Water Management Plan (WMP): It's crucial to refer back to your Water Management Plan (WMP) to understand the necessary steps if a test comes back positive for Legionella bacteria. Develop a Comprehensive Plan: Let's come up with a plan outlining what we are going to test, how often we will test, and how we will use the data. We should also decide how to handle positive results, particularly for different Legionella species. Taking some time to plan upfront will streamline the process when collecting water samples. By emphasizing the benefits of regular testing and a proactive approach, you can help clients understand the importance of more frequent Legionella testing and the value of a detailed WMP. Where can I find more information? On our Scaling UP! H2O Legionella Resources Page at www.ScalingUpH2o.com/Legionella there you'll find Legionella resources collected from the CDC, ASHRAE, OSHA, ASPE, WHO, ASSE, APIC, AIHA, ANSI, ASDWA, AWT, CMS, and others along with our prior Legionella podcast episodes, Legionella Legislation, and Legionella videos.  If you have a helpful Legionella resource not listed on our page, please reach out to our Executive Producer Corrine Drury at Corrine@Blackmore-enterprises.com and we will gladly add that to our Scaling UP! H2O Legionella Resources Page. Upcoming 2024 Legionella Awareness Month Episodes: This month, we have a special lineup of episodes focusing on Legionella, featuring expert guests who will share their insights: Episode 376: Dr. Janet Stout, PhD Episode 377: Michael Loewenstein Episode 378: Dr. Alberto Comazzi, PhD Episode 379: Loraine Huchler Stay tuned, and let's scale up our knowledge together to combat Legionella and ensure safer water systems. Thank you for being a part of the Scaling UP! H2O community. Thank you for celebrating Legionella Awareness Month with us. The Scaling UP! H2O Team Timestamps 01:00 - Trace Blackmore welcomes you to Legionella Awareness Month 03:00 -  Upcoming Events for Water Treatment Professionals 06:00 - Answering Legionella Questions 31:15 - Drop by Drop With James McDonald  Quotes “I always encourage people to test for Legionella at least every season or quarter. It's crucial to refer back to your Water Management Plan (WMP) to know the necessary steps to take if your test comes back positive for Legionella bacteria.” - Trace Blackmore “Let's come up with a plan for what we are going to test, how often we are going to test, and what we are going to do with that data, and if we do get a positive what you want to handle that if we get certain species. Take some time upfront and then get the water sample.” - Trace Blackmore Connect with Scaling UP! H2O Email Producer: corrine@blackmore-enterprises.com Submit a show idea: Submit a Show Idea LinkedIn: in/traceblackmore/ YouTube: @ScalingUpH2O Links Mentioned Ep 355 Ep 227 Drop By Drop with James In today's episode, I have another “what if” for you.  What if industrial water treatment did not exist.  I mean no industrial water treatment equipment, no industrial water treatment chemistry, no industrial water treatment knowledge, and no people practicing the industrial water treatment profession.  How would the world we live in be different?  What would the rivers, lakes, oceans, and even skies look like?  What would our standard of living be like?  How would our health be impacted?  What would be the impact upon the cost of goods if industrial water treatment did not exist?  Thinking in such an extreme as this really makes one appreciate what it is we industrial water treatment professionals truly bring to the world. 2024 Events for Water Professionals Check out our Scaling UP! H2O Events Calendar where we've listed every event Water Treaters should be aware of by clicking HERE.

Fonterra's MD Strategy and Optimisation reviews last night's GDT Auction (up 0.4%, WMP -1.6%, SMP -1.1%).See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Fonterra's Head of Co-op Affairs reviews last night's plummeting GDT Auction (down 6.9%) with WMP -4.3%, SMP -6.1%, AMF -10.7%, Butter -10.2%, BMP -5.1% and Cheese -6.9% See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

WISCONSIN MUSIC PODCAST WMP Linktree: https://linktr.ee/WI_Music_Podcast AMPLFYING WISCONSIN MUSIC Episode 147 Hans Christian www.recordingstudio330.com www.hanschristianmusic.com www.rasa-music.com www.facebook.com/hans.christian.2005   Hey there, and welcome to the Wisconsin Music Podcast! I'm your host, Zach Fell, and every Tuesday we dive into the heart of Wisconsin's music scene. We bring you stories and interviews with musicians, organizations, and businesses making waves right here in our backyard. You can catch all of our episodes on your favorite streaming platforms, and don't miss our video interviews on YouTube. Also, tune in to Fox City's Indie Radio every Thursday at 6 p.m. and Sunday at 3 p.m. to catch our latest episodes. This week, we have a special guest joining us, Hans Christian from Alamed Music in Sturgeon Bay. Hans recently got a Grammy nomination for his beautiful album Ocean Dreaming Ocean in the New Age Ambient Chant category. Hans' story is truly inspiring. He started out as a young cellist in Germany, moved to Hollywood to chase his dreams, and ended up working with big names like Robbie Robertson, Billy Idol, and members of the Red Hot Chili Peppers. He has also collaborated with greats like John Waite and Sparks. Over the years, he's developed a unique sound that really speaks to the soul. Hans also runs Studio 330, his production facility in the heart of Door County, Wisconsin. There, he not only produces and composes his own music, but also mixes and masters projects for artists from North America and Europe. By the way, our podcast website is going through some exciting design changes. If you're part of the Wisconsin music scene, whether you're a musician, an organization, or a business, head over to our website and fill out the guest request form. We'd love to feature you on a future episode. So, grab your favorite drink, get comfortable, and let's dive into this week's episode of the Wisconsin Music Podcast. Hans shares his journey from Germany to Hollywood, the challenges and triumphs along the way, and his current work in Wisconsin. It's a story filled with passion, creativity, and a deep love for music. Enjoy! Thanks again for tuning in to another episode of the Wisconsin Music Podcast. Once again, I'm Zach Fell, your host and creator of the Wisconsin Music Podcast, where I love to amplify the great sounds coming out of the Wisconsin state. We have great talent here, great support, and great listeners. Thanks to Fox Cities Indie Radio for syndicating this on Thursdays and Sundays along with their other great programming. So make sure you check out Fox Cities Indie Radio. If you are enjoying these episodes, please consider donating to the Wisconsin Music Podcast. Donations help pay for the website and putting the podcast up on streaming services, and also getting our name out there to all Wisconsinites and others that are interested in our great music here in Wisconsin. Donations are secure through PayPal and Stripe. All you have to do is go to the website and click on "Donate to WMP". You can also head over to our Instagram and Facebook pages and like us there, leave some comments, and check out the podcast review section of your podcast player to leave a five-star review. It would be great! Have a great week, everybody, and we'll see you next time!

Hear the heartwarming story of two sisters from war-torn Syria. Also the WMP story continues with a message from Johannes Gutenberg.

Hear the heartwarming story of two sisters from war-torn Syria. Also the WMP story continues with a message from Johannes Gutenberg.

Eurovision 2024. Well. It was a time. We asked our listeners via our socials to give us topics to talk about, and we answered as best as we could. We hate having to say this, but as always here at WMP: these are our thoughts, and our opinions. 2024 was definitely an experience. You’re going … Continue reading WMP Supplemental 13: Eurovision 2024: A Contest For The History Books (For Probably The Wrong Reasons)

Zach Fell loves Wisconsin music so much that he created, produces, and hosts the Wisconsin Music Podcast which is "amplifying Wisconsin musicians." Like Into The Music, Zach uses WMP to expose local artists to a wider audience literally the world over. But there's a lot more to Zach than WMP—he's a band director, a studio owner, producer, engineer, arranger, and one heck of sax player as is evidenced by the jazz/funk/rock instrumental "I Don't Know" by The Fell Boyzs. So get to know Zach here and then make it a point to catch him on the Wisconsin Music Podcast!Part 2 of this crossover event will publish Tuesday, April 16 on the Wisconsin Music Podcast. We turn it around as Zach interviews Rob and gets the scoop on Into The Music. Don't miss it!"I Don't Know" written and performed by The Fell Boyzs℗ 2004 Fell Boyzs. Used with permission of Zach T. Fell.Support the showVisit Into The Music at https://in2themusic.com!Support the show: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/intothemusic E-mail us at intothemusic@newprojectx.com YouTube Facebook Instagram INTO THE MUSIC is a production of Project X Productions, Appleton, WI.Producer: Rob MarnochaRecording, engineering, and post production: Rob MarnochaOpening theme: "Aerostar" by Los Straitjackets* (℗2013 Yep Roc Records)Closing theme: "Close to Champaign" by Los Straitjackets* (℗1999 Yep Roc Records)*Used with permission of Eddie AngelThis podcast copyright ©2024 by Project X Productions. All rights reserved.