Podcast appearances and mentions of daniel swain

I speak with Dr. Daniel Swain, climate scientist and science communicator. We begin with the recent news of the Trump administration's deep cuts to current and future research on the climate crisis, and what impact this will have on our ability to track weather and climate trends in the years to come. I asked him to elaborate on his role as a weather and climate science communicator, especially in disaster scenarios, like during the devastating wildfires that swept through Southern California in January, which is "expected to become the costliest global wildfire disaster on record.” And on track with that subject, I asked Swain to explain the dynamic of hydroclimate volatility, also called hydroclimate whiplash, and how this dynamic can help us understand how the wildfires in California become so destructive so quickly, and the role anthropogenic global heating has in making disasters like this more volatile and far more likely. // Episode notes: https://www.lastborninthewilderness.com/episodes/daniel-swain // Sustain + support: https://www.patreon.com/lastborninthewilderness // Donate: https://www.paypal.me/lastbornpodcast

California climate scientist and Weather West blogger Daniel Swain covers the latest U.S. purge of weather and climate science. But first, a new public health study about your body. How much heat before lasting damage kicks in? From the T.H. Chan School of  …

I speak with Dr. Daniel Swain, climate scientist and communicator, who focuses on the dynamics and impacts of extreme events—including droughts, floods, storms, and wildfires—on a warming planet. I asked Dr. Swain to elaborate on his role as a weather and climate science communicator, especially in disaster scenarios, like during the devastating wildfires that swept through Southern California in January, which is "expected to become the costliest global wildfire disaster on record.” // Support the work + listen to the full interview: https://www.patreon.com/lastborninthewilderness

Guest: Daniel SwainWinds are howling outside Los Angeles, California on a dry January day. The hillsides north and east of the city erupt in flames. A wall of fire begins to consume neighborhoods faster than firefighters can keep up. As wind-driven embers continue to fly down hill - a thousand miles away, Daniel Swain's phone begins to light up. Journalists, companies, officials - all want answers to California's extreme weather and the impact of climate change. On this week's episode of Weather Geeks we learn how one high schooler, with a blog, ignited his career to become one of the leading communicators on climate change and the Weather out West.Chapters:00:00 California's Wildfires and Climate Change10:08 Daniel Swain: The Weather Geek's Journey19:52 The Importance of Effective Communication27:05 Linking Climate Change to Extreme Weather40:05 Understanding the Complexity of Weather EventsSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Scientists who study and keep the public informed about wildfires, hurricanes, avalanches and climate change are reeling from the Trump administration's mass firings at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which includes the National Weather Service. We talk to climate scientist Daniel Swain about the essential work NOAA does in California and nationwide and the impacts of the firings on public safety and mission-critical scientific research. Tell us: Are you affected by the NOAA layoffs? Guests: Daniel Swain, climate scientist, University of California Agriculture and Natural Resources & UCLA Institute of the Environment and Sustainability Heather Welch, terminated research biologist at NOAA Fisheries who worked on the NOAA Climate, Ecosystems and Fisheries Initiative in Monterey, California Kayla Ann Besong, terminated duty scientist for NOAA's Pacific Tsunami Warning Center in Honolulu, HI

Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at UCLA and the University of California's Division of Agriculture and Natural Resources reveals why Los Angeles' recent devastating fires weren't just another disaster, but a harbinger of California's volatile future. Swain explains how climate change created the conditions for unprecedented destruction, and how "hydroclimate whiplash" — or dramatic swings between wet and dry periods — is reshaping our understanding of extreme weather events and challenging traditional approaches to disaster response.

Southern California has been utterly decimated by wildfires, with the neighborhoods of Pacific Palisades and Altadena being virtually leveled to the ground. In this special episode, released outside of our usual schedule, Adam sits down with UCLA climate scientist Daniel Swain to unpack what really happened—both in terms of the environmental factors and the disaster response, and to dispel the misinformation swirling around these devastating fires.SUPPORT THE SHOW ON PATREON: https://www.patreon.com/adamconoverSEE ADAM ON TOUR: https://www.adamconover.net/tourdates/SUBSCRIBE to and RATE Factually! on:» Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/factually-with-adam-conover/id1463460577» Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/0fK8WJw4ffMc2NWydBlDyJAbout Headgum: Headgum is an LA & NY-based podcast network creating premium podcasts with the funniest, most engaging voices in comedy to achieve one goal: Making our audience and ourselves laugh. Listen to our shows at https://www.headgum.com.» SUBSCRIBE to Headgum: https://www.youtube.com/c/HeadGum?sub_confirmation=1» FOLLOW us on Twitter: http://twitter.com/headgum» FOLLOW us on Instagram: https://instagram.com/headgum/» FOLLOW us on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@headgum» Advertise on Factually! via Gumball.fmSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

In this episode, host Jack Eidt discusses the ongoing wildfire crisis in Los Angeles and strategies for resilience with experts Richard Halsey and Lydia Poncé. We also include a clip on the climatic influence from Dr. Daniel Swain from UCLA's Institute of the Environment and Sustainability. Support the Podcast: https://www.paypal.com/donate/?hosted_button_id=LBGXTRM292TFC&source=url Richard Halsey, director of the California Chaparral Institute [https://californiachaparral.org/index.html], shares insights on protecting communities by hardening homes instead of destroying natural habitats. Indigenous activist Lydia Poncé emphasizes community resilience and mutual aid in response to the devastation. The episode explores the impact of climate change, poor urban planning, and the need for sustainable development. We delve into the socio-political dynamics affecting relief efforts and the role of big corporations in the aftermath. Join us as we explore how to rebuild with compassion and foresight, as well as a comprehensive look at wildfire resilience and the role of Indigenous stewardship in preserving our ecosystems. For an extended interview and other benefits, become an EcoJustice Radio patron at https://www.patreon.com/ecojusticeradio Richard Halsey is the Director of the California Chaparral Institute, a non-profit, research and educational organization dedicated to the preservation of California's native chaparral ecosystem and supporting the creative spirit as inspired by Nature. Mr. Halsey works with the San Diego Museum of Natural History and teaches natural history throughout the state. The second edition of his book, Fire, Chaparral, and Survival in Southern California, was published in 2008. Lydia Poncé (Mayo/Quechua) is an Indigenous Activist, Water Protector, co-founder of Idle No More SoCal. She hosts a show called Be a Better Relative on KPFK Los Angeles. Jack Eidt is an urban planner, environmental journalist, and climate organizer, as well as award-winning fiction writer. He is Co-Founder of SoCal 350 Climate Action and Executive Producer of EcoJustice Radio. He writes a column on PBS SoCal called High & Dry [https://www.pbssocal.org/people/high-dry]. He is also Founder and Publisher of WilderUtopia [https://wilderutopia.com], a website dedicated to the question of Earth sustainability, finding society-level solutions to environmental, community, economic, transportation and energy needs. Podcast Website: http://ecojusticeradio.org/ Podcast Blog: https://www.wilderutopia.com/category/ecojustice-radio/ Support the Podcast: Patreon https://www.patreon.com/ecojusticeradio PayPal https://www.paypal.com/donate/?hosted_button_id=LBGXTRM292TFC&source=url Executive Producer and Host: Jack Eidt Co-Host Jessica Aldridge Engineer and Original Music: Blake Quake Beats Episode 245

Hurricanes pounding the southeast, heatwaves and smoke from fires across the country, and temperature records falling left and right…Jess talks with UCLA climate scientist and Weather West blogger Dr. Daniel Swain about this summer of extremes.

In 2023, there were over 56,000 wildfires in the United States, which burned over 2.6 million acres. While we may be familiar with the environmental and structural effects of wildfires, the health impacts of climate change are wide-ranging. From extreme heat to massive wildfires resulting in long range plumes of wildfire smoke, what are the acute and chronic health issues we may experience? How does heat play a role in the worsening of wildfires? And how do these exposures impact the largest organ in our body: our skin? We spoke with Daniel Swain, PhD, a climate scientist at the Institute of the Environment and Sustainability at UCLA, about the causes of wildfires and the role extreme heat plays. We then sat down with Shadi Kourosh, MD, MPH, dermatologist and Associate Professor of Dermatology at Harvard Medical School, about important measures for protecting our skin's health in the face of wildfires.

We've all probably become a little numb to hearing it being said, but with every summer now comes the oppressive, sometimes unbearable heat. We're feeling the start of it this year, with a few days of sweltering temperatures around the Bay Area, some places hitting into the triple digits. And while this heat wave is a short-lived one, many are bracing for the next one, and the next, and the next. So, what will the warmer months hold for us in California and around the rest of the western United States this year? And will the weather extremes we see become more frequent and worse as time goes by? To help us understand the here and now - and what may come - we turn to Daniel Swain, Climate Scientist at the Institute of the Environment and Sustainability at UCLA and with the National Center for Atmospheric Research

The National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center forecasts a 5% chance of isolated tornadoes across portions of the Sacramento Valley, including the city of Sacramento. UCLA-affiliated climate and weather scientist Daniel Swain says that, while the chance of a tornado at any one geographic point remains low, the cumulative risk across the area is not insignificant.

Dr Andrew Glikson (pictured) warns of troubles ahead without global unity to address climate change - "Too late? Climate change denial and the rise of fascism"; "Joyce, Price and Littleproud make ‘false and exaggerated claims' at anti-renewables rally"; "Earth's warmest January on record extends run of unprecedented temperatures to eight months"; "Q&A: Dr Andrew Glikson on the Plutocene age"; "Chile's deadly wildfires wiped out neighborhoods. One stood unscathed."; "Labour's reduced home insulation plans ‘simply not enough'"; "Michael Mann, a Leading Climate Scientist, Wins His Defamation Suit"; "‘It would be devastating': inside Trump's plan to destroy the EPA"; "Policy Experts Say the UN Climate Talks Need Reform, but Change Would be Difficult in the Current Political Landscape"; "Dr. Cornel West Is Running to Become President of the United States. What Are His Views on Climate Change and the Environment?"; "Las Tormentas: L.A. County Meets a Next-Level Atmospheric River"; "Polluted Flowers Smell Less Sweet to Pollinators, Study Finds": "John Deere aims to offer variety of electric tractors, construction equipment by 2026"; "Atmospheric river threatens historic life-threatening floods in California"; "California residents survey damage caused by historic storms: ‘We were in shock'"; "Access to slow EV chargers could speed up EV adoption among renters"; "Trump Allies Plan to Gut Climate Research if He Is Reelected"; "US trade agency backs oil and gas drilling in Bahrain despite Biden pledge"; "The Climate Cooling - Mini Summit"; "‘It was total panic – with black smoke, falling fireballs and tongues of flame': the terror of Chile's wildfires"; "How a Climate Group That Has Made Chaos Its Brand Got the White House's Ear"; "The National Sustainable Living Festival"; "With climate change, Colorado River officials peer into muddy future"; "World Breaches 1.5°C for an Entire Year for First Time on Record"; "One of NZ's most contentious climate cases is moving forward. And the world is watching"; "Schools, parks close as catastrophic conditions tipped in Victoria"; "Revealed: the 1,200 big methane leaks from waste dumps trashing the planet"; "Disaster management needs more forethought to avoid ‘polycrisis', government hears"; "US weather agency on La Niña watch but BOM says climate pattern not guaranteed"; "The Australian water industry is undergoing profound change"; "Victoria schools closed over 'catastrophic' fire danger warning"; "Florida could remove the majority of mentions of climate change from state law"; "Big Oil's hopes are pinned on plastics. It won't end well."; "Wildfire Smoke Will Worsen, New Study Shows, and Protections Are Few"; "Philadelphia mural tells a story of transformation"; "What in the world is weather whiplash?"; "Australian red meat industry's net zero target based on land-clearing data that is ‘not reliable'"; "Woodside dramatically expands oil and gas exploration spend despite net zero pledge"; "Our proposal for a Climate Ready Victoria"; "Remembering Black Saturday. Preparing for the next Big One"; "This ‘tipping point' would be catastrophic for Europe but scientists are unsure when we'll reach it"; "California Isn't Ready for a Megaflood. Or the Loss of Daniel Swain". --- Send in a voice message: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/robert-mclean/message

00:08 [Repeat from September 2022] Daniel Swain climate scientist at UCLA and The Nature Conservancy; co-author of an article in the journal Science Advances modeling the likelihood, and impacts, of California's next megaflood. 00:33 [Repeat from 2019] David K Randall, senior reporter at Reuters. His book is Black Death at the Golden Gate: The Race to Save America from the Bubonic Plague. The post UpFront – February 6, 2024 appeared first on KPFA.

Climate change is increasing flood risk worldwide.  Climate change is intensifying flood risk around the world, with potentially devastating consequences for communities and infrastructure.  As the planet gets hotter, the atmosphere's capacity to hold water vapor increases, leading to more frequent and intense precipitation events in certain regions.  Extreme rainfall events can overwhelm stormwater and other drainage systems and result in dangerous flash flooding. A 2021 study published by the American Meteorological Society found that for every 1°C rise in global temperature, the intensity of extreme rainfall events increases by 7 percent.  Sea level rise, driven by melting glaciers, is also causing coastal flooding and erosion in many parts of the world.  Sea levels could rise by an average of 10 - 12 inches in the U.S. in the next 30 years (2020 – 2050)—as much as the rise measured over the last 100 years (1920 - 2020).  By the end of the century, sea levels could be as much as 3.6 feet higher than they are today, putting nearly 200 million people at risk.   These changes are already having real-world consequences. In 2021, severe flooding in Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands, and other European countries killed over 200 people and destroyed entire towns.  In the United States, severe coastal flooding from Superstorm Sandy was partially caused by unusually high storm surges attributed to sea level rise.  While these challenges may be daunting, there are concrete actions we can take now to increase our resilience, such as greater investment in flood control infrastructure and natural interventions to mitigate flood risk.  These and other solutions are discussed in more detail below.   A recent study indicates that climate change is increasing the risk of a “megaflood” in California.California has experienced great floods every century or so for many millennia, according to historical and climate records. The last great flood in California was in 1862, which inundated a 300-mile-long stretch of the Central Valley, including highly populated areas such as Sacramento.  The “Great Flood of 1862” is widely considered the benchmark for a “plausible worst-case scenario” flood in contemporary California. Recent research suggests that climate change has already increased the risk of extreme floods in California, and that it is likely to significantly increase the risk of even more extreme floods in the future. A 2022 study by UCLA climate scientist Daniel Swain and fellow researcher Xingying Huang found that despite the recent prevalence of severe drought, California faces a broadly underappreciated risk of severe floods. The study indicates that climate change has already doubled the risk of a present-day megastorm, relative to a century ago, and more than tripled the risk of a trillion-dollar megaflood like the Great Flood of 1862.  It further found that larger future increases are likely due to continued warming.  These ominous findings have direct implications for flood and emergency management, and climate adaptation activities.Governments should implement strategies to mitigate and adapt to the growing risk of floods.According to Dr. Swain, addressing flood risk is a societal challenge that requires action at the local, state, and federal government levels. He recommends action to assess flood risk, strengthen flood control infrastructure, implement natural interventions to mitigate flood risk, and explore innovative approaches to flood management: Assess flood risk: FEMA's flood maps, which are now known to be woefully inadequate, should be improved and updated.Strengthen flood control infrastructure: Weaknesses in levees, dams, and urban flood conduits should be identified and rectified through research and funding.Implement natural interventions to mitigate flood risk: Long-term flood risk mitigation may involve natural interventions such as floodplain restoration or moving levees away from the river, giving rivers more room to expand without flooding highly populated cities or critical infrastructure.Explore innovative approaches to flood management: Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations (FIRO) and Flood Managed Aquifer Recharge (Flood-MAR) are innovative approaches that could drive advances in flood management. FIRO involves using high-quality weather forecasts to dynamically operate reservoirs and water releases, while Flood-MAR involves leveraging flood flows to store water in natural aquifers underground (which can have the added benefit of returning water to depleted aquifers).Who is Daniel Swain?Daniel Swain, Ph.D., is a climate scientist who holds joint appointments at UCLA's Institute of the Environment and Sustainability, the Capacity Center for Climate and Weather Extremes at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, and as the California Climate Fellow at The Nature Conservancy. His research focuses on the dynamics and impacts of the Earth's changing climate system, with a particular emphasis on regional climate extremes such as droughts, floods, and wildfires. Dr. Swain's work includes understanding the processes driving severe droughts and "megafloods" in a warming climate, as well as the climate-related factors behind increasingly severe and destructive wildfires in the American West. He also engages in extensive science communication and outreach efforts, including authoring the Weather West blog, providing real-time perspectives on California weather and climate, and working with media outlets to ensure scientifically accurate coverage of climate change.Sources:NY Times, The Coming California Megastorm (August 12, 2022)The Public Policy Institute of California, Commentary: Catastrophic Floods and Breached Levees Reveal a Problem California Too Often Neglects (April 7, 2023)PBS, Climate change increasing chance of ‘mega storm' in California, scientists say (Sept. 6, 2022)Journal of Climate, Changes in Annual Extremes of Daily Temperature and Precipitation in CMIP6 Models (2021)NOAA, 2022 Sea Level Rise Technical ReportIPCC, Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate, Chapter 4, Sea Level Rise and Implications for Low-Lying Islands, Coasts and CommunitiesWorld Economic Forum, The Global Risks Report 2020United Nations, 2021 floods: UN researchers aim to better prepare for climate risksBBC News, Europe's floods: Lessons from German tragedy (2021)NOAA, Climate.gov, Superstorm Sandy and Sea Level RiseSwain, ARkStorm 2.0: Climate change is increasing the risk of a California megaflood (2022)Scientific American, The Coming Megafloods (2013)Science, Climate change is increasing the risk of a California megaflood (2022)Smithsonian Magazine, Federal Flood Maps Are Outdated Because of Climate Change, FEMA Director Says (2022)The Washington Post, America underwater: Extreme floods expose the flaws in FEMA's risk mapsThe Nature Conservancy, How Nature Can Help Reduce Flood Risks: Conservation is an economical way to avoid costly flood damages. In some areas the benefits are 5x the cost (2020)For a transcript, please visit https://climatebreak.org/recharging-aquifers-with-flood-waters-with-daniel-swain/

Hurricanes pounding both coasts, heatwaves and smoke from fires across the country, and temperature records falling left and right…Jess talks with UCLA climate scientist and Weather West blogger Dr. Daniel Swain about this summer of extremes.

Independent, investigative news, reporting, interviews and commentary

Devastating wildfires like the ones in Maui could become more common in our future due to a host of several factors, including climate change. But what about the folks who are already grappling with the fact that climate change is here? This week, we break down the connection between climate change and wildfires with climate scientist Dr. Daniel Swain. Then, Audie talks with former wildland firefighters Megan Fitzgerald-McGowan and Riva Duncan about how climate change is shifting the way fires are fought, and how the work is getting more demanding, more difficult, and more dangerous.   GUESTS: Megan Fitzgerald-McGowan is currently a Program Manager at Firewise USA, which teaches people how to adapt to living with wildfire and encourages neighbors to work together and take action now to prevent losses. She is a former wildland firefighter.  Riva Duncan is the vice president of Grassroots Wildland Firefighters, a nonprofit advocacy group fighting for reforms for federal wildland firefighters. She retired from wildland firefighting in 2020 after more than 30 years.  Dr. Daniel Swain is a climate scientist focused on the dynamics and impacts of extreme events—including droughts, floods, storms, and wildfires—on a warming planet. He blogs at Weather West, which provides real-time perspectives on California and western North American weather and climate. To learn more about how CNN protects listener privacy, visit cnn.com/privacy

Devastating wildfires like the ones in Maui could become more common in our future due to a host of several factors, including climate change. But what about the folks who are already grappling with the fact that climate change is here? This week, we break down the connection between climate change and wildfires with climate scientist Dr. Daniel Swain. Then, Audie talks with former wildland firefighters Megan Fitzgerald-McGowan and Riva Duncan about how climate change is shifting the way fires are fought, and how the work is getting more demanding, more difficult, and more dangerous.  GUESTS: Megan Fitzgerald-McGowan is currently a Program Manager at Firewise USA, which teaches people how to adapt to living with wildfire and encourages neighbors to work together and take action now to prevent losses. She is a former wildland firefighter.  Riva Duncan is the vice president of Grassroots Wildland Firefighters, a nonprofit advocacy group fighting for reforms for federal wildland firefighters. She retired from wildland firefighting in 2020 after more than 30 years.  Dr. Daniel Swain is a climate scientist focused on the dynamics and impacts of extreme events—including droughts, floods, storms, and wildfires—on a warming planet. He blogs at Weather West, which provides real-time perspectives on California and western North American weather and climate.  To learn more about how CNN protects listener privacy, visit cnn.com/privacy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

美国国家海洋和大气管理局最新发布的报告显示，全球海水温度持续上升，多地水温均超过了平均水平。如果海水和大气的表面温度继续升高，2023年可能会成为有史以来最热的年份。Scientists have gathered further evidence that ocean waters are continuing to warm along with the rest of the planet.科学家收集到了更多证据证明，和地球其他地方一样，海水也在继续升温。Ocean temperatures reached record-breaking highs for the month of May, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced during its monthly climate call on Thursday.美国国家海洋和大气管理局6月15日发布的全球气候月度报告称，5月份海洋温度创下了历史新高。Four main factors are contributing to such historic warming of global sea surface temperatures: human-induced climate change, a developing El Nino event, effects from the 2022 Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai volcano eruption and a new shipping emissions policy aimed at reducing air pollution, said Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the University of California, Los Angeles.洛杉矶加州大学的气候学家丹尼尔·斯温指出，全球海洋表面温度的破纪录高温是由四个主要因素导致的：人为引起的气候变化、发展中的厄尔尼诺事件、2022年洪加汤加-洪加哈派火山喷发和旨在减少空气污染的船舶排放新政策的影响。Some regions are experiencing temperatures up to 7 degrees higher than average for this time of year. In Cabo Verde Island, where hurricanes typically form, the water is typically 75 degrees Fahrenheit but is currently measuring at 82.4 degrees.一些地区的海水温度比同期平均水平高出了7华氏度。在经常遭遇飓风的佛得角岛屿，海水温度通常是75华氏度（24摄氏度），但现在测得的温度是82.4华氏度（28摄氏度）。Combined, land and ocean temperatures in May were the third warmest on record, with surface temperatures increasing about 0.97 degrees Celsius, or 1.75 degrees Fahrenheit, above the 20th century average, Rocky Bilotta, climatologist for the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, told reporters.美国国家海洋和大气管理局国家环境信息中心的气候学家洛基·毕洛塔告诉记者，今年5月陆地和海洋的平均温度之高位居史上第三名，表面温度比20世纪的平均水平高出约0.97摄氏度。Temperatures were above average throughout most of North America, South America and Africa. Parts of Western Europe, Northwestern Russia, Southeast Asia and the Arctic also experienced warmer than average temperatures this month, Bilotta said.毕洛塔介绍，北美、南美和非洲的大部分地区的温度都超过了平均值。西欧、俄罗斯西北部、东南亚和北极的部分地区5月也经历了比平均水平更高的温度。The warmest global record for the time period between March and May was also reached, according to NOAA.美国国家海洋和大气管理局指出，3月至5月期间的温度也达到了史上最高水平。2023 is very likely to rank among the 10 warmest years on record, according to the National Centers for Environmental Information statistical analysis that was released in April. Should warmer ocean and air surface temperatures continue, 2023 could become the warmest year on record.环境信息中心4月发布的统计分析报告也显示，2023年很可能会成为史上十大最热年之一。如果海水和大气的表面温度继续升高，2023年可能会成为有史以来最热的年份。Scientists anticipate that the current high temperatures could increase in the coming weeks and set record-shattering numbers, which could spell disaster for coastal communities all over the world.科学家预期，未来数周海洋的这种高温天数会增多并可能打破纪录，这可能会给世界各地的沿海社区带来灾难。Warmer ocean waters can contribute to more powerful tropical storms and impact marine life. In addition, a warmer atmosphere holds more moisture and can increase potential flooding events. Melting sea ice in the Arctic is also causing sea levels to rise, which is eroding coastlines.海水温度升高会引发更猛烈的热带风暴并影响海洋生物。此外，湿热的空气含有更多水分，这会增大发生洪水的风险。北极融化的海冰也会导致海平面升高，从而侵蚀海岸线。Earlier this week, thousands of fish washed up at the Quintana Beach County Park on Texas' Gulf Coast, likely due to warming waters, according to the Texas Parks and Wildlife Kills and Spills team.本周早些时候，在美国得克萨斯州墨西哥湾沿岸的金塔纳海滩县公园，数千条死鱼被冲上海滩。得州公园和野生动物厅捕杀和泄露小组表示，这可能是由水温升高导致的。"Fish kills like this are common in the summer when temperatures increase," the department said in a statement. "If there isn't enough oxygen in the water, fish can't 'breathe'."得州公园和野生动物厅在声明中称：“夏天温度升高时这种鱼群死亡事件很常见。如果水中没有足够氧气，鱼就不能‘呼吸'。”Ocean英 /ˈəʊʃn/美 /ˈoʊʃn/n.海洋Temperature英 /'temp(ə)rətʃə/美 /'tɛmprətʃɚ/n. 温度Marine英 /məˈriːn/美 /məˈriːn/adj. 海的，海产的，海生的

Climate change is increasing flood risk worldwide.  Climate change is intensifying flood risk around the world, with potentially devastating consequences for communities and infrastructure.  As the planet gets hotter, the atmosphere's capacity to hold water vapor increases, leading to more frequent and intense precipitation events in certain regions.  Extreme rainfall events can overwhelm stormwater and other drainage systems and result in dangerous flash flooding. A 2021 study published by the American Meteorological Society found that for every 1°C rise in global temperature, the intensity of extreme rainfall events increases by 7 percent.  Sea level rise, driven by melting glaciers, is also causing coastal flooding and erosion in many parts of the world.  Sea levels could rise by an average of 10 - 12 inches in the U.S. in the next 30 years (2020 – 2050)—as much as the rise measured over the last 100 years (1920 - 2020).  By the end of the century, sea levels could be as much as 3.6 feet higher than they are today, putting nearly 200 million people at risk.   These changes are already having real-world consequences. In 2021, severe flooding in Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands, and other European countries killed over 200 people and destroyed entire towns.  In the United States, severe coastal flooding from Superstorm Sandy was partially caused by unusually high storm surges attributed to sea level rise.  While these challenges may be daunting, there are concrete actions we can take now to increase our resilience, such as greater investment in flood control infrastructure and natural interventions to mitigate flood risk.  These and other solutions are discussed in more detail below.   A recent study indicates that climate change is increasing the risk of a “megaflood” in California.California has experienced great floods every century or so for many millennia, according to historical and climate records. The last great flood in California was in 1862, which inundated a 300-mile-long stretch of the Central Valley, including highly populated areas such as Sacramento.  The “Great Flood of 1862” is widely considered the benchmark for a “plausible worst-case scenario” flood in contemporary California. Recent research suggests that climate change has already increased the risk of extreme floods in California, and that it is likely to significantly increase the risk of even more extreme floods in the future. A 2022 study by UCLA climate scientist Daniel Swain and fellow researcher Xingying Huang found that despite the recent prevalence of severe drought, California faces a broadly underappreciated risk of severe floods. The study indicates that climate change has already doubled the risk of a present-day megastorm, relative to a century ago, and more than tripled the risk of a trillion-dollar megaflood like the Great Flood of 1862.  It further found that larger future increases are likely due to continued warming.  These ominous findings have direct implications for flood and emergency management, and climate adaptation activities.Governments should implement strategies to mitigate and adapt to the growing risk of floods.According to Dr. Swain, addressing flood risk is a societal challenge that requires action at the local, state, and federal government levels. He recommends action to assess flood risk, strengthen flood control infrastructure, implement natural interventions to mitigate flood risk, and explore innovative approaches to flood management: Assess flood risk: FEMA's flood maps, which are now known to be woefully inadequate, should be improved and updated.Strengthen flood control infrastructure: Weaknesses in levees, dams, and urban flood conduits should be identified and rectified through research and funding.Implement natural interventions to mitigate flood risk: Long-term flood risk mitigation may involve natural interventions such as floodplain restoration or moving levees away from the river, giving rivers more room to expand without flooding highly populated cities or critical infrastructure.Explore innovative approaches to flood management: Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations (FIRO) and Flood Managed Aquifer Recharge (Flood-MAR) are innovative approaches that could drive advances in flood management. FIRO involves using high-quality weather forecasts to dynamically operate reservoirs and water releases, while Flood-MAR involves leveraging flood flows to store water in natural aquifers underground (which can have the added benefit of returning water to depleted aquifers).Who is Daniel Swain?Daniel Swain, Ph.D., is a climate scientist who holds joint appointments at UCLA's Institute of the Environment and Sustainability, the Capacity Center for Climate and Weather Extremes at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, and as the California Climate Fellow at The Nature Conservancy. His research focuses on the dynamics and impacts of the Earth's changing climate system, with a particular emphasis on regional climate extremes such as droughts, floods, and wildfires. Dr. Swain's work includes understanding the processes driving severe droughts and "megafloods" in a warming climate, as well as the climate-related factors behind increasingly severe and destructive wildfires in the American West. He also engages in extensive science communication and outreach efforts, including authoring the Weather West blog, providing real-time perspectives on California weather and climate, and working with media outlets to ensure scientifically accurate coverage of climate change.Sources:NY Times, The Coming California Megastorm (August 12, 2022)The Public Policy Institute of California, Commentary: Catastrophic Floods and Breached Levees Reveal a Problem California Too Often Neglects (April 7, 2023)PBS, Climate change increasing chance of ‘mega storm' in California, scientists say (Sept. 6, 2022)Journal of Climate, Changes in Annual Extremes of Daily Temperature and Precipitation in CMIP6 Models (2021)NOAA, 2022 Sea Level Rise Technical ReportIPCC, Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate, Chapter 4, Sea Level Rise and Implications for Low-Lying Islands, Coasts and CommunitiesWorld Economic Forum, The Global Risks Report 2020United Nations, 2021 floods: UN researchers aim to better prepare for climate risksBBC News, Europe's floods: Lessons from German tragedy (2021)NOAA, Climate.gov, Superstorm Sandy and Sea Level RiseSwain, ARkStorm 2.0: Climate change is increasing the risk of a California megaflood (2022)Scientific American, The Coming Megafloods (2013)Science, Climate change is increasing the risk of a California megaflood (2022)Smithsonian Magazine, Federal Flood Maps Are Outdated Because of Climate Change, FEMA Director Says (2022)The Washington Post, America underwater: Extreme floods expose the flaws in FEMA's risk mapsThe Nature Conservancy, How Nature Can Help Reduce Flood Risks: Conservation is an economical way to avoid costly flood damages. In some areas the benefits are 5x the cost (2020)

It was a remarkable winter in the western United States with phenomenal snow and heavy rain. Now that things have quieted down, UCLA climate scientist Daniel Swain joins the meteorologists to discuss what's next. What will happen as all the snow melts? What will this year's wildfire season be like? Will the atmospheric rivers return next winter? It's a deep dive into all things weather and climate across the West on this week's episode. About the Across the Sky podcast The weekly weather podcast is hosted on a rotation by the Lee Weather team: Matt Holiner of Lee Enterprises' Midwest group in Chicago, Kirsten Lang of the Tulsa World in Oklahoma, Joe Martucci of the Press of Atlantic City, N.J., and Sean Sublette of the Richmond Times-Dispatch in Virginia. Episode transcript Note: The following transcript was created by Adobe Premiere and may contain misspellings and other inaccuracies as it was generated automatically: Hello, once again, everybody. I'm meteorologist Sean Sublette and welcome to Across the Sky, our National Lee Enterprises weather podcast. Lee Enterprises has print and digital news operations in 77 locations across the country, including in my home base in Richmond, Virginia. I'm joined by my meteorologist colleagues from across the sky, Matt Holiner in Chicago and Joe Martucci at the New Jersey Shore. My colleague Kirsten Lang is taking some well-deserved time off in Tulsa for a couple of weeks. And guys, we've got Daniel West on the podcast today. A lot of people know him as Weather West. Why are you shaking your head at me? Daniel Swain. Okay. Daniel Swain. Daniel Swain. He's Weather West. Yes. You all knew where I was going with you? Of course. Of course. Without a doubt. Without an end. And he's great. I mean, I've done some work with him when I was with the Climate Central. He's just got a wonderful, wonderful grip on what the weather and the climate are in the western part of the country. And it's really, really nice. Yeah, well, you know, Shawn, it's a good follow up from last week's episode where we talked with Donnie down at the Placer County Department of Public Works about all the snow that they plowed. So we have the boots on the ground with your last episode with Donnie. This time we're taking it from the academic perspective and the forecasting and a look back perspective with Daniel Swain. So it's a good one two punch as we really exit out of the cool season, and then we promise we'll talk about warmer and more summery things as we go forward over the next couple of. Yeah, this is a real interesting conversation with Daniel because he's just, you know, really focused in on the West. And I think oftentimes, you know, as meteorologists in the central and Eastern part of the country, because it seems like a lot of the time there's not much going on in the West, so it doesn't get discussed much. But, boy, this winter was truly the exception. There was lots of talk on the National level about what's going on out west. And, you know, it kind of like shifted a tinge. It's like, wait a minute, I thought the you know, nothing happened in the West. It's just constant, never ending drought. And wildfires. Well, this is this year was the proof that you can't forget about what's going on our way because it's not going to be drought all the time. It's not going to just be wildfires all the time. They're still going to get big rains. They're still going to get big snows and look at the impacts that it cause. And of course, Daniel is tuned in with the West all the time and is aware that it's not this drought going on out there. So he was the perfect person to bring on and really dive into. This is a fascinating discussion. Yeah, it really was. We're glad to have him. So let's cue it all up and get our discussion started with Daniel Swain there at UCLA. And our guest this week is Daniel Swain, climate scientist at the Institute of Environment and Sustainability at UCLA and author of the popular Weather West blog and YouTube Channel. He has been featured on numerous digital and legacy broadcast outlets talking about weather and climate in the Western U.S. And we are absolutely delighted to have Daniel on the podcast. It has been so busy, I know for you, Daniel. Thank you so much for joining us on the Across the Sky podcast. Thanks again for having me. Glad to be here. I do want to talk about some of the big picture items down the road, but first, let's talk about immediacy. These next, let's say 1 to 3 weeks there in California, of course, with the phenomenal amount of snow. Everybody kind of gets that. But now it's starting to melt and we've got kind of a hot spell actually developing. So what does this kind of portend or kind of lay the groundwork with regarding flooding there in California in the coming, let's say, one, two or three weeks? Well, I think you've nailed most of the key points there. But it's I think it's worth digging into a couple of them because, you know, California, just to review, you had an exceptionally wet winter in the central part of the state, which includes the southern half of the Sierra Nevada mountain range and really phenomenal amount of snow accumulated tens of feet at the higher elevations in these places. And so currently the water stored in that snowpack in the southern Sierra is on the order of 2 to 3 times the average amounts, a 2 to 300% of average, which in some places in the far southern Sierra is the largest amount ever observed at this point in the season. So there is a huge amount of water up there, the vast majority of which is still yet to melt. And all of that melt is eventually going to end up in rivers and streams that drain, mainly down the western slopes of the mountain range into California's Central Valley and the San Joaquin Valley and Tulare Lake Basins in particular. So all of that water that's up there in the mountains right now, a snowpack is eventually going to make its way to lower elevation areas and probably given this heat wave that's going to ramp up later this week. So a lot of that's going to melt sooner rather than later. Can I get you to talk a little bit about to Larry Lake? I've just become aware of this over the last three or four weeks. I did not know that there was an actual lake there decades and decades ago, but there has been a change. So what is that all about there and about what part of California is that? Yeah. To every lake is or was I guess was and perhaps will be a maybe is the best way of putting it given what's going on right now the largest freshwater lake west of the Mississippi. This is quite a substantial body of water in the southern San Joaquin Valley of California. It was indeed a century or so ago drained mainly, so it could be used for agricultural purposes. But but also a number of people now live within this historic lake bed, which is sort of maintaining itself in most years from becoming a lake again by having lots of levees and dikes and conduits, artificial interventions to keep the water away, essentially. And in recent years, recent drought years, you know, flood risk has been far afield. People haven't really been thinking about it. But now that we've got got a very wet winter in this part of the state, now that we have this enormous snowpack upstream, a lot of that water is accumulating in this basin and there is no outlet to the ocean and to very lake based and of the flooding gets very severe and it spills over the top of the basin into the San Joaquin River. The water that flows into Tillery Lake Basin, it it stays there, it accumulates. And so all of that we're hearing about all this flooding, that water isn't going to by itself just gradually drain out to the ocean. That water is just going to sit there and continue to get deeper as more and more water flows in. You know, so one challenge in addition to all the water that's flowing in from snowmelt and rain this past winter, is that the ground itself has subsided, literally sunk in the Tillery Lake Basin in recent years due to groundwater pumping during severe drought. So we're actually seeing probably flooding that will be deeper and more prolonged here in this wet spell because of the drought conditions that just ended and the human response to that drought being to pump all this water out of the aquifers, the ground has sunk in some places by ten or more feet. So this is not a barely measurable thing. This is you know, I'm I'm six foot four and the ground has sunk by, you know, considerably more than my height in recent years. That's going to affect the flooding in ways that are, I think, hard to predict from the outset. Yeah. Before I turn this over to Joe, I know you want to go next, but can you give us a little more idea of how big this lake is? I'd say compared to someplace like the Great Salt Lake. Is it about that size? Half of that larger just for some kind of frame of reference? Well, I don't have the numbers off the top of my head, but, you know, it's it's the challenge is it's, you know, this especially this type of lake doesn't have a fixed size. During the great flood of 1862, for example, much of the Central Valley all the way from the southern San Joaquin up to the northern Sacramento, I mean, that's 250, 300 mile stretch that was contiguous, inundated. It actually become one giant freshwater lake, almost 300 miles long, encompassing areas that are now home to millions of people and most of California's agriculture industry. So, you know, if you measured it, then it would have been, you know, a truly enormous body of water. If you measured it last year, there's zero. It didn't exist. So it's you know, we often think about about bodies of water as these dynamic fix things. And that's that's almost never the case. But it's especially wasn't true even in its natural state for 244 to Larry Lake this was something that waxed and waned greatly from year to year before human intervention. It has done so less since we drained it. But in the big years it's going to come back. And this year, you know, to very Lake is making a big time reappearance. Hey, Daniel, it's Joe here. I want to take a step back and get into your initial interest in weather here and maybe extreme weather. I know you went to, I believe, UC Davis for your bachelors and then got a Ph.D. from Stanford. What drove you to be interested in whether there are any getting into the subset of the field that you're in now? Well, I was always a bit of a weather geek, maybe more than a bit of a weather geek, too, if I'm being totally honest. So actually my initial my undergraduate degree is in atmospheric science. So I actually specifically wanted to to pursue, you know, being a degree program that would give you the credentials to become an, you know, an operational meteorologist day to day weather forecasting. And so I do have that degree. But then at some point in this process, I realized, you know, I'm still really interested in weather, but the big societal and scientific problems that are really interesting these days really seem to be sort about this weather climate nexus. So, you know, I'm really fascinated by the day to day variations in weather. I enjoy cloud watching and watching storms and things like that. But also, you know, and that's where the societal impacts come from, right? Like climate change is affecting all of us. It's affecting ecosystems everywhere. But exactly how is it doing? So usually it's doing so by changing the envelope of extreme weather events, you know, shifting the range of what's possible or what's likely from what it used to be. And so it turns out that this is kind of a niche that's underdeveloped or is certainly have been for for decades, where weather scientists, meteorologists and climate scientists were kind of siloed from each other. They're kind of viewed as different disciplines. But it's always struck me as a little bit odd because it's the same atmosphere and it's the same physics and chemistry. There's this different time scales. And so, yes, you often use different assumptions, but I think that that separation has perhaps been too strict and too rigid. So I live a little dangerously and I mixed my my weather and my climate. They are different things, of course, But you know, what is climate? But the the you know, weather in aggregate, that's something I often like to say, because it's not just the average of weather, but it's also the extremes of weather. It's it's the swings in whether it's the variability, too. So for me, that's sort of that that weather climate nexus is what really I think fascinates me. And now that I'm you know, I'm a climate scientist who has a background in meteorology and really thinks about climate change from a weather weather up perspective, if you will. Hey Daniel, it's Matt. And going off of that, I kind of want to take a step back and look at the bigger picture because there's been a lot of buzz lately, of course, about all of these atmospheric river events and the improvement in the drought situation, even the removal of drought, particularly in California. But when you look at the big picture, I think what's getting lost a little bit is people think that the West is now completely drought free and that's definitely not the case. In fact, in some parts of the West, there's still some extreme drought, not in California anymore, but other parts of the West. And so what can you say about, you know, the longer term trend? Yes, we had this really wet winter and there was improvement in drought across the West, but is this going to continue? Are we going to go back to drought? What can you say about the general western U.S. in general and the outlook for drought? There is an important point because this has been, of course, a good water year in California and actually across much of the lower Colorado basin, which is the area in crisis because of the very low levels of flow on the Colorado River and all the big dams you hear about Lake Powell, Lake Mead, and sort of the the growing crisis there with water scarcity. This, of course, helps in the short term in these places where, you know, there's been a good snowpack in the lower Colorado basin, there'll be better inflows into these reservoirs this spring and summer than there have been in recent years, that's for sure. But it certainly, as you say, it doesn't solve the long term problem because this really took decades on the Colorado Basin to develop. So one good year certainly doesn't erase decades of accumulated water scarcity. And in California, I think the situation is a bit different because a lot of California gets its water for more local watersheds. So the northern two thirds of the state sees water mainly for the form of local reservoirs and then also snowmelt from the Sierra Nevada. And here, you know, the drought, I think it's fair to say, has broken. But there's this broader question of what drought means in a warming climate, I think, which is really actually quite an active topic of research and conversation, because it's not entirely obvious. And a lot of what's happened in the West isn't so much because of lack of rain or precipitation, but it's more just that temperatures have been so much warmer in recent decades than they were in the 20th century that the evaporative demand, literally the thirsty ness of the atmosphere, its propensity to act as a giant sponge and extract water out of the landscape as it increased. This is known as the increasing vapor pressure deficit in technical terms. And what it does is it just extracts more and more water out of the landscape more quickly. And unless you're seeing more precipitation than you used to on average, which were not, then there's going to be an accumulated deficit over time. So it's not just a question of the low precipitation years, but it's also a question of the high evaporative demand years, which increasingly have been almost every year, both the wet precipitation years and the dry precipitation years. So what does it mean in a warming climate to have individual episodic wet periods? Do they completely counterbalance the accumulated, increased atmospheric sponginess, if you will, all the rest of the time? The math really doesn't pencil out because you'd need to get a lot of extra precipitation for that to be true. And we're not seeing a lot of extra precipitation now in California in particular. And that is probably true to somewhat lesser extent in most of the West. We don't just expect to see drying in the future. In fact, in California, the hydro climate signature of climate change really appears to be increased variability. We call it increased precipitation or hydro climate whiplash because of how it kind of feels like to just wildly swing from dry to wet and back and forth. And this again comes from that that sort of that that basic thermodynamics of the atmosphere, that increased atmospheric sponginess, as I mentioned, goes both ways. It both increases the atmosphere's ability to extract water out of the landscape. Think of a you know, a larger and larger dry sponge soaking more and more water up off your counter and you still a glass of water or something. But on the other hand, that progressively larger sponge, once you've soaked up that water, you can wring out more water too, in the form of more intense precipitation. So in California, the signature really seems to be more of both, more of the very dry conditions on the one hand and more of the very wet conditions on the other. And I think this is largely going to be true across much of the southwest. So in the long run, of course, if you only take the average, that might pencil out to be similar. But in practical terms, does it actually feel similar? No, not not at all. This is a radically different regime, You know, with with you know, either you're very wet or you're very dry increasingly, but you're really rarely in the middle. And I think we've seen that a lot this decade where parts of California in particular have seen both record dry conditions and record wet conditions, in some cases more than once in the past decade, where we've broken the century long precipitation records and then also broken a century long non precipitation or dryness records in the same decade in the same place. I want to that point about getting so much precipitation at once. There's also been a lot of discussion about about groundwater, especially in California and in the Central Valley in particular since so much of the wintertime. Vegetables certainly are grown there. When we have a situation like we had this past winter, How much does that help with with groundwater? I mean, obviously we're still we're still very dry in the longer term. But would you say that this also helps the groundwater situation or at least buys us a little time? Well, this is a pretty complicated question, and I'm neither a geologist nor a hydrologist, but the situation is complicated, mainly because it's not just a question of pouring a bunch of water on the ground and hoping and it soaks in. Unfortunately, we've done long term damage to the aquifers themselves by so much pumping and fracturing. I was talking about subsidence earlier, literally the ground sinking. The reason why it's sinking is all of that or space where the the essentially the air bubbles, not only bubbles but the spaces in between soil particles and in between rocks has become compressed over time. And so that compression you've lost the the the the space where the water would have gone aquifers generally, you know, some folks think of them as these huge open caverns where water sits. That's really not what they are. They're they're actually it's just the accumulated effect and that effect of huge amounts of small air pockets that can fill up with water if the soil gets saturated, if you compress those air pockets enough, they don't magically reappear when you dump water on top of the ground. Now, the water just kind of likes to sit there on the top of the ground and cause flooding and then runoff into rivers and into the ocean eventually, rather than soaking in nicely. So unfortunately, there's some long term damage we've done. Geography is in some places it makes it harder for them to recharge when we do get wet. Years like this. And the other reality is that in general, even in a you know, even in an ideal, an undisturbed water system, there are only some places where aquifer recharge happens at a good pace. There are some places where naturally the soil is just too full of clay a rock. To really allow rapid recharge, you need to have you need to have, you know, water sitting there for years, not just for one season. And so for these reasons, I think that the groundwater problem is not remotely going to be solved by even one, maybe not, probably not even by two consecutive very wet winters. It certainly helps, but it mainly helps because what it means is that there's less desire to pump water out of the ground. So it helps mainly in an indirect way because it means that there are fewer straws sucking that water out of the aquifer because there's water available elsewhere. There is some recharge going on. There is movement to actively facilitate that recharge as a groundwater management and flood control strategy in California, which I'm optimistic about moving forward. But it's tricky because just because there's a lot of water doesn't magically mean that you've recharge aquifers and you know, this is going to be an ongoing problem, unfortunately. So. So know that that part of the long term scarcity problem is definitely not solved by one really good year like this one. And it also underscores the need for a cross-disciplinary work between the geologists, the hydrology artists and meteorologists and climate scientists. We're going to take a little bit of a break, then we'll come right back with Daniel Swain and talk about El Nino, talk about some atmospheric rivers. When we come back on the Across the Sky podcast. And we're back with Daniel Swain. Weather West on the Across the Sky podcast talking about the very wild winter and the repercussions for that in the western United States. So, Daniel, we've just come off the third consecutive LA Nina, which oftentimes means that it's drier than average and all signs are are pointing toward going into an El Nino, into this late this summer, into perhaps this coming winter, which oftentimes means wetter than average, not always, but oftentimes. How do you kind of reconcile those things? I mean, we know that it's not 1 to 1, but but how do you kind of reconcile those things to do the public? Yeah, this is become actually a really major and consequential weather and climate science communication challenge in California because the it's probably helpful to think a little bit to review the history actually of El Nino in California in pop culture first, because really the first El Nino event of prominent public dialog was back in the early eighties and this was the 1982 83 event, which was a very exceptionally wet year in California. There was a lot of flooding and there were a lot of problems. And, you know, folks in the media really linked that event to the very wet conditions that occurred at that point. And with good scientific reason. The scientists agreed. Then there was another big El Nino event in 97, 98 of similar magnitude, which was again a very wet winter in California with lots of flood related impacts. And so that really reinforced this public idea that major El Nino events were were wet years in California. Then in 2015, 2016, there was another strong El Nino event and everyone got excited about how it was going to break the drought. And then it didn't. It was not an exceptionally wet winter in California, did not experience, you know, significant drought relief as a result that year. Now, you know, we're heading into another year where indeed, as you say, it does look quite likely, I would say probably 80 or 90% chance at this point that an El Nino of some magnitude will emerge later this year. But interestingly, the public dialog is now centered, including in the local media, around how El Nino is so uncertain that it doesn't matter. And I think we've swung too far back in that direction. It is absolutely true that El Nino is not everything, and there are other influences that in some areas can completely override its influence and produce an opposite outcome even. But on the other hand, there are a lot of pretty basic physical science reasons why especially strong El Ninos in particular, really should and do influence the hydro climate of the American Southwest pretty profoundly and know, as you say, it's not a perfect relationship. But I think the challenge is a lot of folks go and try and do a literal linear correlation between the the El Nino surface ocean and surface temperatures anomalies and average annual precipitation. And of course, that signal is pretty weak in a lot of places. But if you focus only on the strong events and you focus specifically on El Nino, which is a bit asymmetric from its counterpart, La Nina, we'll talk about that a bit in a minute. But there still is a pretty strong signal. So, yes, if El Nino is strong, despite the failure in 1516, I would still put my money on a wider than average winter, perhaps a greatly wetter than average winter, especially in central and southern California and in some parts of the lower Colorado basin. So there's usually a dividing line in El Nino and La Nina years separating the Pacific Northwest from the rest of the West. And usually it's the opposite sign. So when the Pacific Northwest is dry, the rest of the West is often wet and vice versa. And usually in El Nino, the wet conditions occur in California and the Southwest and in the Pacific Northwest is dry and long on any of the opposite is true. We're lining as wet in the Pacific Northwest and dry in the in the Pacific southwest. Of course, that's subject to some some variability. But but, you know, I think that that's a pattern that in the long run still holds true for reasons that physically make sense. But let's back up for a moment and think, okay, so what what is El Nino and La Nina? What is this in the first place? Well, technically, it doesn't directly have anything to do with the western United States. It's a tropical ocean temperature oscillation that is strongly coupled with the tropical atmosphere. So El Nino simply means that that ocean surface temperatures in the eastern part of the tropical Pacific Ocean have been warmer than average for a sufficiently long period and long. Nunez and which means that ocean surface temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific have been cooler than average for a sufficiently long period. So there need not necessarily be any specific conditions in California or the American West for an El Nino or a La Nina to occur. And it's worth noting that even in 2015, 2016, where the rains did not come in great volume to California, the prediction for a strong El Nino event was correct. The strong El Nino event occurred in the tropical Pacific Ocean. It just didn't produce the results that some folks had anticipated. And, you know, there's been lots of research on why that is is probably been in the weeds for this conversation. But I think in the long run, I would still put my money on a particularly for a strong El Nino event. And it looks like there's a decent chance that's where we're headed this year, although it's still a little bit early to talk. The intensity that we might end up seeing back to back unusually wet winters in California and parts of the lower Colorado, which we have not seen in quite some time. Okay. Got me thinking back to now. You know, this recent winter that we had here, what were predictions for snow and precipitation and atmospheric river events going into this past winter? And then I believe and I've saw some reports of there were 31 atmospheric river events or is actually a river is a is a small is a relatively narrow but intense moisture plume that comes in. But where were the forecasts versus reality going into this winter? Yeah, I will emphasize that there were more like 15 or 16 atmospheric rivers in California. I think the 31 numbers for all of the West Coast that's out of Denver for California. Yeah, my fault in that one. Sorry. Not no worries. Well, so the seasonal prediction for California this past season was, as has been the topic of discussion was where a slight tilt in the odds towards drier than average conditions because of the moderate to almost strong and and persistent third year persistence of La Nina. Now obviously that didn't happen. But if you look if you look at the large scale atmospheric pattern, though, it's kind of interesting. So the reason why there's a slight tilt in the odds towards drier than average conditions during a significant linear event is because it tends to favor a strong ridge of high pressure somewhere over the Gulf of Alaska, as it turned out, that did actually happen. There was a seasonally persistent ridge in the Gulf of Alaska. But the problem or maybe the the the saving grace for California was that it was slightly farther to the west and the typical position of the La Nina Ridge. And so instead of blocking storms from making it to California and dropping rainfall and snowfall, it actually was far enough to the west that the return southward flow on the eastern flank of that high pressure system injected a bunch of cold air and atmospheric instability into the mix and helped juice up these subtropical moisture plumes, producing a bunch of atmospheric river storms and a persistent stream of significant storminess all winter long. So physically, you know, the high pressure system that's connected with cool temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific essentially happened. But something else occurred that shifted it a little further west than had been initially anticipated. And that resulted in an enormous difference for California, an exceptionally wet winter in some places instead of a drier than average winter. This was something I actually talked about in a blog post back in the autumn last year, which is that, you know, the problem with La Nina and the reason why this linear correlation is not so great is because if you tried to linear correlate La Nina with the ridge in the Gulf of Alaska, there'd be a very strong correlation. But the problem is the relationship between that ridge in California, precipitation is very tenuous. We're kind of on the razor's edge. If it's far enough to the east. We we are warm and dry in the winter, but if it's far enough west, it's literally the opposite surface condition that's cold and wet because of the direction that the winds end up coming from. So that's the hard part, is getting the exact longitude of that big ridge correct months in advance. So you can't just say there'll be a big red blob somewhere in the Gulf of Alaska. You need to be able to say exactly where it is, because if you're off by even 500 or 800 miles, which is not a very big margin on the global planetary climate, seasonal prediction scale, you get the completely wrong outcome for California. And I think that's what happened this year where that ridge was just too far west and we were on the other side of that razor's edge in California on the cool and one side. This year, as is true with much of meteorology, little differences add up and can we do some big changes in the ultimate outcome? One thing I want to look ahead to, you know what has been again until this winter and all the snow and the atmospheric river events, you know, besides the drought in the west. The other thing that got a lot of attention in the West was wildfire season. How these wildfire seasons seem to be keep getting worse with very little fluctuation. So I kind of want to look ahead to this wildfire season as we get through the summer and things quiet down and get into the fall. What are you thinking as far as wildfires go in the West? This year is a complicated picture this year because there's as you mentioned earlier, there are actually patches of drought that have gotten worse this winter, despite the rapid improvement in the California Colorado basin. The Pacific Northwest, for example, is headed for a significant drought right now. So we might actually see a were a relatively worse fire season in the Pacific Northwest later this year than than in some other places. The other thing is that even within California, for example, there's great complexity. So we have such a large snowpack that I think the high elevation fire season this year in California and throughout most of the West, fortunately will be pretty mild because literally there is snow on the ground. It's impossible to have wildfires of any real magnitude right now. And that might still be the case for a few more months. So by the time August gets around, the snowpack is finally melting away. Well, you don't have snow on the ground anymore, but now you have all this residual soil moisture. So everything is going to be pretty damp up at high elevations. I don't think we're going to see and this has been a real, really big problem in recent years. We have seen very high elevation, high intensity wildfires which were historically rare and have recently become much more common. I don't think we'll see that this year in places that have a really exceptional snowpack. So that's some good news, a place where I think there will be a mitigated fire season up above seven, eight, 9000 feet. Of course, there's a lot of territory in the West. In fact, the vast majority of the West is below that elevation. So what happens there? Well, it depends a bit on the ecosystem type. It's actually the case in a lot of the West. The wet years tend to be worse. Fire years historically, because what it means is you have a lot of extra growth of brush and grass. So if you're in the desert, if you're in grasslands or in sort of mixed trees and brush and grass woodland kind of regimes, you usually get worse for areas after wet winters because you have so much more fuel to burn. That's because these these are regimes that are actually known as fuel limited, meaning that the reason why you don't have more and more widespread and more intense fires is usually because there isn't enough vegetation to burn on average. Well, these are the years where there is enough vegetation to burn because you've grown extra because there's so much more water than usual. So all of that greenery you're seeing now, lower elevations will become eventually fuel for fires later in the season. And so there's also this interesting dynamic where in places like California, where there were severe windstorms and snowstorms and these no middle elevation zones this winter, there's a lot of trees and branches that came down which are going to end up essentially forming additional fuel for fires later this season as well, along with all that extra brush and grass growth. So this could be a year where if we do get significant wind or heat or events at the end of the season, we could see a pretty serious failure in certain lower elevation zones, but a really mild failure at higher elevations. And so I think there's both geographic variation where the Pacific Northwest is actually pretty dry right now, but the Pacific Southwest is pretty wet. And there's also a elevational dependance for places that had a big snowpack right now probably aren't going to have much of a fire season this year, but the lower elevations might see potentially a elevated fire season in some places, depending on how things go. Yeah, that's really the irony of the whole bit, to be sure. Before we let you go, I do want to talk a little bit more about atmospheric rivers. I think that term has really jumped into the lexicon over the last 5 to 10 years, especially in the West. What do we know about atmospheric rivers and and the warming climate in general? Yeah, So there's a strong consensus at this point in the scientific literature that the strongest atmospheric rivers will become considerably stronger moisture and produce more intense precipitation than a warming climate. Interestingly, there's less consensus about what happens on average to the frequency of atmospheric rivers overall. So really the strongest argument that we can say is that really throughout western North America, where our rivers are relevant, that the most extreme atmospheric rivers in a warming climate will be significantly wetter and will pose significantly greater flood risks. But doesn't necessarily mean we're going to see more atmospheric rivers overall. In fact, we may even see in some places like California, more variable city of atmospheric rivers from year to year. Rather, the wet years are really wet, increasingly so. And as I mentioned earlier, the dry years or perhaps even drier, you know, this really comes down once again to basic thermodynamics. As you mentioned, atmospheric rivers are at their core. These concentrated plumes of atmospheric water vapor, long but narrow, pushed by strong winds over your head. They can they can carry volumes of water that are many times that of the Mississippi River in flood, but in the form of vapor over your head. So these are huge amounts of water volume that we're talking about. And you can imagine that in a warming climate where the water vapor holding capacity of the atmosphere increases exponentially for each linear increment of warming. So in other words, this is about 7%, four centigrade degree centigrade or about 4% per degree Fahrenheit of warming, that atmospheric sponginess increases by either 4% per Fahrenheit or 7% per degrees Celsius. You know, that would be a pretty darn good interest compound interest rate in a bank. If you get a47 percent guaranteed return. I think anybody would be excited about that. But it's a little bit scary you we talk about it in the context of the ceiling on extreme precipitation, which by our best estimates does increased by about 4 to 7% or Fahrenheit or Celsius degree of warming. And globally, we're already at 1.2 or so degrees Celsius of warming, getting close to two degrees Fahrenheit of warming locally in California during, you know, in some places we're already higher than that because, you know, the land is warming faster than the ocean. So this is not an insignificant change. Yeah, for sure. And I think that's one of the things that I think all of us as scientists and media that's meteorology or climate science, I think a lot of people understand outside of the scientific disciplines that, yeah, if it's warmer, you can evaporate more. I think a lot of that's intuitive, but I'm with you. I don't think people understand that it's not linear. It goes up dramatically as you get warmer so that when we do have these higher end events, they are so much worse. Daniel, we're going to cut you loose. We appreciate you joining us. An addition to the Twitter and YouTube. Where else can people find out about the work you do? Well, I do also write the weather blog. You can find that at Weather West Tor.com. As you mentioned, you know, I try and spread my my public facing science communication across these platforms, Twitter, YouTube and my own weather. WESTCOTT So and, you know, I like to join other people's podcasts on a pretty regular basis, too, So you can find me here, there and everywhere, I guess. DANIEL Terrific. Thanks again so much. I know you're busy. It has been a wild, wild winter and early spring and now mid-spring. There in the western United States. So we hope to talk to you again real soon. Thank you so much for joining us. Thanks again for having me. I'll be right back with a few closing thoughts on the across the podcast. And we're back with some closing thoughts on the Across the Sky podcast. And meteorologist Sean Sublette of the Richmond Times Dispatch, along with Matt Hollander in Chicago and Joe Martucci at the Jersey Shore, the press of Atlantic City. And Daniel, guys, he is just he has such a deep understanding of the weather patterns there. We kind of forget about how volatile it can be in the western United States. We've all kind of, you know, got locked into this idea, well, it's dry and it rains on occasion and they're in trouble. They're running out of water. And then you have a winter like they just had. They're in the western United States. And it really reminds you just how volatile can be. You know, they don't have tornadoes and like we have east of the Rockies, but they had their own entire set of issues, that is for sure. Yeah. And he did explain all the intricacies of water and making sure there's enough water for everybody. I mean, one thing that stuck out was how much So that land has been sinking in the valley just through pumping out the aquifers. I think I've even seen a couple of photos online of like these huge rollers. If you guys ever seen these, like these huge rulers of like tens of feet about how much actually the land has sunk over the past couple of decades. So and the other thing is to, you know, one of these really wet winters is good, still a long way to go to being really on top of it there. And we get throw in the climate change factor. And I like to say it's a lot of time the people do. It's not so much you're just over one. We're more variable in our weather events. And when it comes to Western water management, that's something that. It's just getting, I believe, harder for our water managers to, you know, taking control in terms of these forecasts because we do have, you know, hey, we had a extremely wet winter this past winter, is it? Daniel said he's trending towards having another one of these kind of winters as we go into next winter. Good news. In the short term, we have to see what it means. Well, the other thing that stands out to me is just how the atmosphere is becoming more extreme. You know, we were dealing with the extreme drought and then quickly switched and remarkably, how quickly we switched to extreme rain and flooding. And that's just what we're seeing with climate change is how the extreme nature of these events, these extreme events are happening more frequently. I mean, you can talk about, you know, it goes with other areas, too. You know, when you're looking at, you know, the intensity of hurricanes, for example, there's some uncertainty in the exact number of hurricanes and how that's going to change with climate change. But what there is a clear trend towards is an increase in intense hurricanes and increase, as Daniel referred to. You know, it's still uncertain exactly the number of atmospheric rivers that we're going to see. But when there is an atmospheric river, it's more likely to be an extreme atmospheric river. When we have a drought, it's more likely to be an extreme drought. So there's going to be fluctuations. It doesn't mean like the West is always going to have droughts or it's always going to flood. You know, it's more complex than that. But what we are clearly seeing is a trend in these more extreme events, which is the most high impact from an economic standpoint, you know, and the toll that it takes on people. So, gosh, just, you know, that's that's what really stands out to me is just how many extreme events and not just in the West but across the planet. Yeah. I mean, we've always known that that part of the United States has very highly variable weather to begin with, and they're kind of susceptible to dry and wet periods. But I think that Daniel's point is that we're really seeing that ratcheted up even further. And, you know, we try to remind people it doesn't all just balance out because the evaporation rates are so much higher in a warming climate so that the ground dries out faster. And if you have heavy rain on dry ground, there's more running off than it would be if the ground was a little bit moist, kind of like, you know, you turn the spigot on on top of a wet sponge versus a dry sponge, you get two very, very different impacts from that. So it is going to be quite a quite a challenge for water management, certainly in the western United States for decades and decades to come. With that, we're going to close it up for this week. We do have a few more things kind of percolating in the weeks to come. We've had the aurora borealis show up, so we're kind of working on a couple of things there. We hope to have some news on that coming up soon. But right now for Matt Holiner in Chicago, Joe Martucci, Atlantic City and Kira Saline and Tulsa, our meteorologist Sean Sublette. And we will see you next time on the Across the Sky podcast.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Academic climate experts Daniel Swain, Andrew Schwartz and Julie Kalansky weigh in on perspectives about California's mega-winter, including measuring near record snow depth, analyzing climate patterns, and discussing potential snow/ flood impacts.

After an in-depth look at the latest weather forecast including comments from climate scientist, Dr. Daniel Swain, of UCLA's Institute of the Environment and Sustainability, we air a special interview as part of KVMR News' coverage of Black History Month. KVMR's Joyce Miller sits down with Carol Menaker, Nevada City resident and author of The Worst Thing We've Ever Done: One Juror's Reckoning With Racial Injustice.  

What are atmospheric rivers and bomb cyclones, and why are they mercilessly attacking us? This week climate scientist Daniel Swain joins Adam to discuss the meteorological events of the past month, and to explain the effect that climate change is having on the weather we face every day. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

What are atmospheric rivers and bomb cyclones, and why are they mercilessly attacking us? This week climate scientist Daniel Swain joins Adam to discuss the meteorological events of the past month, and to explain the effect that climate change is having on the weather we face every day. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

0:08 — Daniel Swain (@Weather_West), is climate scientist at UCLA and The Nature Conservancy who co-authored an article in the journal Science Advances modeling the likelihood, and impacts, of California's next megaflood. 0:33 — Anya Kamenetz (@anya1anya), is author of The Stolen Year: How COVID Changed Children's Lives, And Where We Go Now. The post Daniel Swain on mega floods; Plus Anya Kamenetz on how the pandemic changed children's lives appeared first on KPFA.

Today Meleiza Figueroa hosts the podcast. She talks to three guests about the historic series of winter storms that have been lashing the entire state of California since New Year's Eve, causing widespread flooding, landslides, wind damage, and levee failures. With rain forecasted to continue all the way until Martin Luther King Day, the worst may be yet to come. While California is far better known for droughts, earthquakes, and wildfires, atmospheric rivers from the Pacific also bring regular flooding, sometimes on a biblical scale; an inherent feature of California's extreme weather regime that is expected to increase in frequency and intensity as a result of climate change. Meleiza's guests bring various perspectives to the flood that touch on its historical, scientific, and socio-political significance.Indigenous traditional ecological practitioner Ali Meders-Knight looks at the deep history of California's 200-year flood cycle, bringing the long view to us relative newcomers in a place that has only been called “California” for 180 years.Climate scientist Daniel Swain discusses the complex dynamics of atmospheric river events, and how climate change and wildfires contribute to intensifying the extremes of California's drought-and-flood cycles.Myla Ablog, a wetland ecologist and former regulatory official, discusses the state of California's infrastructure, the impact of these floods on workers and houseless people in the Central Valley and elsewhere, and what we can and must do to prepare our communities for the “Other Big One.”Jacobin Radio with Suzi Weissman features conversations with leading thinkers and activists, with a focus on labor, the economy, protest movements. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

From space, it looks almost elegant: a narrow plume cascading off the Pacific Ocean, spilling gently over the California coast. But from the ground, it looks like trouble: flash flooding, landslides and power outages. California is enduring the effects of an atmospheric river, a meteorological phenomenon where converging air systems funnel wet air into a long, riverine flow that dumps large amounts of rain when it makes landfall. "Atmospheric rivers can transport volumes of water many times that of the Mississippi River," says Dr. Daniel Swain, a climate scientist with UCLA, the National Center for Atmospheric Research, and the Nature Conservancy of California. Daniel joined Short Wave's Aaron Scott to explain where these "rivers" of air come from, how climate change is fueling more of them, and why you're a lot more likely to have heard of them if you happen to live on the west coast of almost any continent.

In the early 2000s, a new field of climate-science research emerged that began to explore the human fingerprint on extreme weather, such as floods, heatwaves, droughts and storms. Known as “extreme event attribution”, the field has gained momentum, not only in the science world, but also in the media and public imagination. These studies have the power to link the seemingly abstract concept of climate change with personal and tangible experiences of the weather. Scientists have published more than 400 peer-reviewed studies looking at weather extremes around the world, from wildfires in the US and heatwaves in India and Pakistan to raising the risk of some types of extreme weather. Together, forests, shrubland, and grassland cover more than half of the land area in the United States. These ecosystems are important resources, both environmentally and economically. Although wildfires occur naturally and play a long-term role in the health of these ecosystems, changing wildfire patterns threaten to upset the status quo. Multiple studies have found that climate change has already led to an increase in wildfire season length, wildfire frequency, and burned area. The wildfire season has lengthened in many areas due to factors including warmer springs, longer summer dry seasons, and drier soils and vegetation. Similarly, climate change threatens to increase the frequency, extent, and severity of fires through increased temperatures and drought as they affect the various and different areas of the US and the world. As well, wildfires now are adding substantially to the health impacts of our air pollution. Daniel Swain at UCLA and Noah Diffenbaugh at Stanford talk with Host, Bernice Butler talk about how Wildfires can affect the health of us all – as well as the environment. --- Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/healthy-radio/support

CalFire dispatcher Beth Bowersox was on duty the morning the Camp Fire ignited. She joins Host Cassie De Pecol to share what it was like behind the scenes as a first responder, and her decision to evacuate all of her hometown of Paradise. Later, UCLA climate scientist Daniel Swain discusses whether there could be another Camp Fire.Listen early and ad free with Wondery+. Join Wondery+ for exclusives, binges, early access, and ad free listening. Available in the Wondery App https://wondery.app.link/againsttheodds.Support us by supporting our sponser!See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

From droughts to fires to floods, a year of extreme weather is taking a toll on communities from Jackson, Mississippi to Pakistan. Climate change is here and impacting our homes and drinking water. Andy speaks with climate scientist Daniel Swain and former EPA Southeast Coordinator Heather McTeer Toney about why global warming is increasing the intensity of natural disasters, who's most at risk, and how communities should spend Inflation Reduction Act funds to boost their resiliency. Keep up with Andy on Twitter @ASlavitt. Follow Heather McTeer Toney and Daniel Swain on Twitter @HeatherMcTeer and @Weather_West. Joining Lemonada Premium is a great way to support our show and get bonus content. Subscribe today at bit.ly/lemonadapremium.    Support the show by checking out our sponsors! Click this link for a list of current sponsors and discount codes for this show and all Lemonada shows: https://lemonadamedia.com/sponsors/    Check out these resources from today's episode:  Read about Daniel's latest study on California's coming megastorm: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/08/12/climate/california-rain-storm.html Read Heather's book, “Before the Streetlights Come On Black America's Urgent Call for Climate Solutions”: https://www.broadleafbooks.com/store/product/9781506478623/Before-the-Streetlights-Come-On Find vaccines, masks, testing, treatments, and other resources in your community: https://www.covid.gov/ Order Andy's book, “Preventable: The Inside Story of How Leadership Failures, Politics, and Selfishness Doomed the U.S. Coronavirus Response”: https://us.macmillan.com/books/9781250770165  Stay up to date with us on Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram at @LemonadaMedia.  For additional resources, information, and a transcript of the episode, visit lemonadamedia.com/show/inthebubble.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Sacramento broke a nearly 100 year record that no one is celebrating after temperatures reached 116 degrees. The California Report hears from UCLA Climate Scientist, Daniel Swain, about the role of climate change in these severe heat waves. The California News Service examines the controversy swirling around woody biomass--opponents argue it shouldn't be considered a clean-burning energy source in the state's campaign to see net zero emissions by 2045. After local news and weather, KVMR News Director, Cláudio Mendonça, speaks with Mike Dent, Nevada County Director of Housing and Community Services, about plans for a new Wellness Center on Sutton Way in Grass Valley.

California is no stranger to extreme weather. It typically comes in the form of severe drought and wildfires, but a new study suggests the Golden State should also be preparing for a mega storm it hasn't seen the likes of since 1862. UCLA climate scientist Daniel Swain joined Stephanie Sy to discuss how the potential storm could flood parts of the state with 30 days of continuous rain. PBS NewsHour is supported by - https://www.pbs.org/newshour/about/funders

California is no stranger to extreme weather. It typically comes in the form of severe drought and wildfires, but a new study suggests the Golden State should also be preparing for a mega storm it hasn't seen the likes of since 1862. UCLA climate scientist Daniel Swain joined Stephanie Sy to discuss how the potential storm could flood parts of the state with 30 days of continuous rain. PBS NewsHour is supported by - https://www.pbs.org/newshour/about/funders

In 1862, a catastrophic flood in California claimed the lives of over 4,000 people, destroying one-third of all property in the state. What new research is uncovering for the future of California is Worth Noting.Sources consulted:Colgan, D. (2022, August 19). Climate change makes catastrophic flood twice as likely, study shows. UCLA. Retrieved August 22, 2022, from https://newsroom.ucla.edu/releases/climate-change-makes-catastrophic-flood-twice-as-likelyJones, J., & Miller, B. (2022, August 14). A disastrous megaflood is coming to California, experts say, and it could be the most expensive natural disaster in history. CNN. Retrieved August 22, 2022, from https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/12/weather/california-megaflood-study/index.htmlRice, D. (2022, August 15). Experts warn California of a disaster 'larger than any in world history.' it's not an earthquake. USA Today. Retrieved August 22, 2022, from https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2022/08/12/megafloods-could-devastate-california-new-study-says/10308979002/Snider, M. (2022, August 14). A disastrous 'Megaflood' flood in sunny and Dry California? it's Happened before. USA Today. Retrieved August 22, 2022, from https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2022/08/13/california-great-of-flood-1862-likerihood/10317968002/Successive climate crises in the deep past drove the early evolution ... (n.d.). Retrieved August 22, 2022, from https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.abq1898Wikimedia Foundation. (2022, February 23). Megaflood. Wikipedia. Retrieved August 22, 2022, from https://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/Megaflood

California is in its third year of a historic drought but climate change also brings the risk of more intense and severe storms that could cause catastrophic flooding. Climate scientist Daniel Swain joins host Cecilia Lei to share findings from a new research study he co-authored, which details how a worse case scenario flood event could devastate the California. | Unlimited Chronicle access: sfchronicle.com/pod Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Extreme heatwaves, devastating floods, and raging wildfires regularly compete for news headlines. How can we use these frightening and dangerous events as a catalyst for adapting to extreme weather patterns as we continue climate mitigation efforts? What imminent weather events are looming on the horizon and how should we be preparing now for the potential worst-case scenario? Chief Investment Officer Tony Roth sat down with Dr. Daniel Swain, a Climate Scientist at UCLA's Institute of the Environment & Sustainability, to discuss the intersection of wild weather and climate change and the challenges and opportunities for the environment and your portfolio.

Daniel Swain, Ph.D., is a climate scientist in the Institute of the Environment and Sustainability at UCLA, the Capacity Center for Climate and Weather Extremes at the National Center for Atmospheric Research and The Nature Conservancy   of California. He is the founder of the blog Weather West. If you have a flash flood in an uninhabited desert, then it's not causing anyone any problems. But if you have an ark-storm scenario in the Central Valley and you exceed the capacity of the levees in Sacramento, that's a whole different question. So I think a lot about what recent experience tells us about the urgency of addressing the problems that we're going to clearly face in the decades to come. Notes and references from this episode: @Weather_West - Daniel Swain on TwitterWeather West blog, by Daniel SwainInstitute of the Environment and Sustainability, UCLACapacity Center for Climate and Weather Extremes, National Center for Atmospheric ResearchThe Nature Conservancy of California"Controversial restriction on 49ers-Rams NFC Championship Game tickets abruptly disappears on Ticketmaster,” by Eric Ting, SFGATE“The Climate Scientist Who Is Demystifying Extreme Weather,” by Madeleine Gregory, Vice“What a Dry January Means for California's Drought,” by Soumya Karlamangla, NY Times  “Study: Sierra Snowpack Could All But Disappear In 25 Years,” by Jay Barmann, SFist“‘Fire season never really ends in California': Cal Fire is preparing for winter, but fire dangers persist,” by Andres Picon, SF Chronicle====Theme music by Sounds SupremeTwitter: @WhatCaliforniaSubstack newsletter: whatiscalifornia.substack.comSupport What is California? on Patreon: patreon.com/whatiscalifornia  Email: hello@whatiscalifornia.comPlease subscribe wherever you get your podcasts. And if you liked What is California?, please rate and review What is California?on Apple Podcasts! It helps new listeners find the show.

Daniel Swain a former student of the University of Sheffield, left university after just a few weeks due to what he says are a institutional failings in disability support which left him unable to partake in his studies.  Ellie caught up with Daniel to discuss his experience and to discuss how we can improve the experience of disabled students in higher education.  You can find support as a student from the RNIB here: Starting university - RNIB - See differently Image shows: Interviewee Daniel Swain at Scarborough sea front 

In part five of the climate change series, Phoebe sits down with Tapan Pathak and Jhalendra Rijal to discuss the results of a study they published, examining the effects of climate change on Navel Orangeworm. While the study is based off of climate and insect models, like Daniel Swain mentioned in Part 3, these models are based on fundamental physical (and in the case of navel orangeworm, biological) properties. Thank you to the Almond, Pistachio, Prune, and Walnut Boards of California for their kind donations. Thank you to Muriel Gordon for the music.The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed are the speaker's own and do not represent the views, thoughts, and opinions of the University of California. The material and information presented here is for general information purposes only. The "University of California" name and all forms and abbreviations are the property of its owner and its use does not imply endorsement of or opposition to any specific organization, product, or service.

Today on Polilogue, two very different segments with very feisty takes. Naomi looks at the lack of substantive dialogue about the Texas abortion ban. Brendan examines climate change conversations and wonders who should be answering which questions. Shows discussed State of the Union on CNNFox News Sunday on FOXThis Week on ABCFace the Nation on CBSMeet the Press on NBCResourcesNYTimes article on NYC flash flood preparednessMore discussion on NYC government failures during IdaClimate scientist Daniel Swain's thread on a new study of the climate change effects on flooding. Article about the danger of water vs. wind in an hurricaneA Q&A about extreme weather and global warmingA full report on FEMA and funding issuesContact usEmail us at podcast@polilogue.com or you can send us your feedback @PolilogueCast. You can also follow us at @sotonaomi_ and @bsteidle.Support the show: We produce Polilogue out of our own pocket. If you'd like to support the show with a one-time or recurring donation, please visit our donate page here. Or leave a review on iTunes, Apple Music, or the Apple Podcast library. Thank you!Check out some of our other work: Brendan's website: www.armisticedesigns.com Naomi's website: www.startwithaquestion.org

Ep. 241 featured Hayden Hudiburgh who is an MMA fighter based here in Coeur D'Alene & trains at Warrior Camp with the likes of Daniel Swain, Josh Rettinghouse, Terrance McKinney, & Pablo Alfonso. Great show! Check it out! Key Discussion Points: Struggling with PTSD The importance of iron sharpens iron Being All Or Nothing Who does he think wins at Monopoly, Pablo or Rose Alfonso? Quick shoutout to our Platinum sponsors for this show is Mike Young, The Makeover Master and Tranquil Turtle Massage As a complimentary gift, you can access Mike's $997 “The Foundations™” course for free! To Get The $997 - Foundations™ Course COMPLETELY FREE, go HERE Tranquil Turtle Massage is an awesome company here in Coeur D'Alene that offers a ton of spa packages including The Couples Honu Pumpkin & Deep Sea Honu packages! Check them out at PNWMobileMassage.com - Tell them I sent you for $25 off! Proudly sponsored by: Tigatu (use code "TopRatedMMA" for 10% off) Combat Flags - Flag Backdrop Alpha Outpost (use code “topratedmma” for 15% off) INTERESTED IN BEING A SPONSOR OF OUR SHOW? DM US FOR MORE INFO. Be sure to LIKE / FOLLOW Hayden Hudiburgh - Instagram Be sure to LIKE / FOLLOW Warrior Camp Spokane - Website Check out Proving Grounds Live Amateur Cage Fighting - Website Top Rated MMA is all about Real Fighters! Real Stories! We donate 25% of our profits made through our affiliate products to Hire Heroes USA (HireHeroesUSA.org) who empowers U.S. military members, veterans and military spouses to succeed in the civilian workforce. Please LIKE, SHARE, and SUBSCRIBE to our channel and social media sites: Facebook Twitter (@TopRatedMMA) Instagram (@TopRatedMMA) YouTube Website Facebook (Erik Allen Media) --- Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/topratedmma/support

Daniel Swain, a climate scientist with UC Los Angeles' Institute of the Environment and Sustainability, discusses climate models and California's climate with Phoebe in this week's episode. He shares what we've already seen, what climate scientists know will continue to happen, and clarifies a common misconception about what the future of precipitation will look like in California.If you would like to learn more about the work that Daniel does, as well as get monthly (or so) updates on California's climate, visit his blog at https://weatherwest.com/. Thank you to the Almond, Pistachio, Prune, and Walnut Boards of California for their kind donations. Thank you to Muriel Gordon for the music.The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed are the speaker's own and do not represent the views, thoughts, and opinions of the University of California. The material and information presented here is for general information purposes only. The "University of California" name and all forms and abbreviations are the property of its owner and its use does not imply endorsement of or opposition to any specific organization, product, or service.

The 'Legacy Fighting Alliance' REALLY blew the doors off on Friday with their '107th' card. Six fights on the Main card, five finishing in a spectacular finish! Taylor Mauldin opened things up, making her pro debut and hitting a nasty kneebar! Jordan Heiderman and Allan Begosso both got sumbmissions (arm triangle & guillotine). BUT, Ricardo Dias knee was felt around the arena, pinpoint accuracy and impeccable timing got him the night stopping finish. And in the main were two 'Dana White Contender Series' alumni in Kamuela Kirk & Daniel Swain. Kirk put on a standout performance, maybe his best we've seen to date. His diverse attacks and power were too much for a tough as nails Swain (who nearly grab a couple of submissions) and the fight got stopped before the 3rd. The 'UFC' PPV's in 2021 have been incredible and Saturday's'262' was no exception! Out of the twelve fights on deck, there were three submissions and FOUR TKO's! Again, the first fight was absolutely fire, Sean Soriano was back in the promotion and he was looking sharp as hell. BUT, all it takes is one mistake, Christos Giagos took advantage of a rushed armbar attempt. Locking up a d'arce for the win! Priscila Cachoeira after being dominated, came back with a vengeance. Andrea Lee grabbed an armbar with 8 seconds left in the 1st. And like Lil Kim, Jordan Wright had 'No Time', unleashing voilence to end the night in a minute! Lando Vannata's featherweight debut was on point to say the least. AND André Muniz did the unthinkable, with his submission of the legend!!! If you want to know want the personification of violence is, then watch the Shane Burgos & Edson Barboza three round scrap. No one saw that ending, but definitely a hard fought win for Barboza. In the Co-main Beneil Dariush unequivocally let cats know, he is in the conversation!!! AND, then, with the Main event we knew we'd be getting a new Lightweight Champion. And this fight had it all, near finishes, submission attempts. It left everyone on the edge of their seat. Charles Oliveira didn't wilt and went from nail to hammer, finishing things 19 seconds into the 2nd round, AndNew!!! So, let's break it all down, in today's (ep 188) @ChinCheckPod - LFA 107: Kirk vs. Swain - UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler *(Music) 'What You Know' (feat. Redman) by T.I. - 2006 --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/eftv/message

This Friday, we're back with 'LFA', they have their '107th' event taking place. In the Co-main we have a Heavyweight clash between Vernon Lewis vs Alejandro Solorzano who surprisingly both like a submission. Then we end the night with the Featherweights in the Main event. As Kamuela Kirk & Daniel Swain go at for the W. AND Saturday night is another 'UFC' PPV, '262'. We will see Tucker Lutz finally make his debut, after a couple of runs on 2020 'Dana White Contender Series', make his debut. Though, he does have to face 'The Agel of Death' Kevin Aguilar. Technically, Sean Soriano is making his debut as well, though it is his second run in the promotion. He'll be treating it kinda like new, too as he'll want to lay it down this time around. 'The Spartan' Christos Giagos will be staring him down across the cage. PLUS, remember, we'll be getting a NEW Lightweight Champion crowned, as Charles Oliveira clashes with Michael Chandler for all the marbles.........who you got!!! So, let's break it all down, in today's (ep 186) @ChinCheckPod

Jason has five fighter interviews in this episode of The MMA Report Podcast as he's joined by Daniel Swain, Fernando Padilla, Greg Hopkins, Nick Gehrts, and Joe Holmes. Up first is the conversation with Swain, who headlines Friday's LFA 107. Then Padilla joins the show to preview his featherweight title fight on Sunday at Fury […] The post The MMA Report: Daniel Swain, Fernando Padilla, Greg Hopkins, Nick Gehrts, and Joe Holmes appeared first on Radio Influence.

Jason has five fighter interviews in this episode of The MMA Report Podcast as he’s joined by Daniel Swain, Fernando Padilla, Greg Hopkins, Nick Gehrts, and Joe Holmes. Up first is the conversation with Swain, who headlines Friday’s LFA 107. Then Padilla joins the show to preview his featherweight title fight on Sunday at Fury […] The post The MMA Report: Daniel Swain, Fernando Padilla, Greg Hopkins, Nick Gehrts, and Joe Holmes appeared first on Radio Influence.

A fascinating and educational 68 minutes that breaks down the mechanisms of California's weather and where it might be headed in the future.  

The UCLA climate scientist on why his position as a scientist-communicator is so rare.

Dave is joined by climate and weather expert Daniel Swain from UCLA's School of the Environment and Sustainability. His weather blog, Weather West has been keeping west coast weather watchers and professional meteorologists engaged for nearly two decades. Daniel tells us all about this summer's nearly non stop fire weather and the climate conditions that led to a hellish summer for the entire western US. He also explains how computer models in North America and Europe are used to converge on your weekly forecast.

Dave is joined by climate and weather expert Daniel Swain from UCLA's School of the Environment and Sustainability. His weather blog, Weather West has been keeping west coast weather watchers and professional meteorologists engaged for nearly two decades.

Record-breaking heat, dry vegetation, and lightning each played a role in sparking wildfires that have burnt more than one million acres across California. But to what extent were these factors caused by climate change? UCLA climate scientist Daniel Swain, along with a team of researchers, published a study earlier this year that found that the “number of days with extreme fire weather during the autumn season has more than doubled since the late 1970s.” The California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection, or Cal Fire, calls climate change a key driver of the shift toward longer fire seasons. In this segment, we talk with Swain about the link between climate change and the risk of wildfires in California.

With wildfires breaking out in the western United States, we talk to reporter Lizzie Johnson at the SF Chronicle and Dr. Daniel Swain, climate scientist at UCLA and author of the Weather West blog, about the epicenter of the devastation in California. We discuss the conditions that caused the fire, the stress on firefighting resources, how long-term climate disruption is leading to more intense, prolonged fires, and how residents are coping with the devastation.  As always, follow us @climatepod on Twitter and email us at theclimatepod@gmail.com. Our music is "Gotta Get Up" by The Passion Hifi, check out his music at thepassionhifi.com. Rate, review and subscribe to this podcast on iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher, and more! Subscribe to our new YouTube channel! Further Reading:  Over 1 million California acres have burned since July as monster fires rage in Bay Area How Can We Plan for the Future in California? Colorado wildfires update Record heat, unprecedented lightning fire siege in Northern California; more dry lightning to come Northern California ‘drastically short’ of firefighters while an onslaught of blazes rages

Featherweight standout Daniel Swain joins John Hyon Ko of Kumite TV ahead of his fight with TJ Laramie on Dana White's Contender Series on August 11 in Las Vegas, USA. ▶️Subscribe to Kumite TV https://www.youtube.com/c/KumiteTV ▶️Interviews https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLpBStxIAJ_qVhp1kQ-CJzpTa2HIJ32Qmj Want to support the show? Consider donating here: https://paypal.me/jhkmma Any amount will help with the overall upgrade of Kumite TV. Without you, there is no channel. Without you, there is no Kumite TV. Follow John Hyon Ko on social media. ✅Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/JHKMMA/ ✅Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/jhkmma/ ✅Twitter: https://twitter.com/JHKMMA

A conversation with Stanford doctoral researcher Katerina Gonzales and UCLA climate scientist Dr. Daniel Swain about atmospheric rivers, climate extremes and futures, and climate science communication. Recorded June 30, 2020. Find the episode transcript here: https://www.watertalkpodcast.com/episodes/episode-04-yzjkt

Guest: Dr. Daniel SwainIntroduction: If you’re not from California, what is the first thing that comes to mind when you think of its weather? Severe droughts? Constant wildfires? 75 and sunny every single day? In any given year, those could all be correct! But what about over the past 30 years to create a climate normal? That’s where our guest today comes in… Dr. Daniel Swain is a climate scientist at UCLA and he’s been researching California’s weather patterns and finding the connections with our changing climate. From atmospheric rivers of moisture to raging wildfires, we’ll discuss why California and the West are so susceptible to these phenomena, and we’ll reveal the challenges that can come from studying these diverse, beautiful landscapes.

Daniel Swain describes himself as ‘a gay man but also so much less than that.' Self-depreciation aside, Daniel is just as funny and intriguing as the poems in his new chapbook You Deserve Every Happiness But I Deserve More. In this episode we talk about life in isolation, the absurdity of higher education, why straight … Continue reading "Ep 116. Daniel Swain: Straight men, tarantulas and institutional absurdity"

Daniel Swain describes himself as ‘a gay man but also so much less than that.’ Self-depreciation aside, Daniel is just as funny and intriguing as the poems in his new chapbook You Deserve Every Happiness But I Deserve More. In this episode we talk about life in isolation, the absurdity of higher education, why straight … Continue reading "Ep 116. Daniel Swain: Straight men, tarantulas and institutional absurdity"

Climate scientist Dr. Daniel Swain joins Adam this week to shed light on how climate change affects the chances of more extreme weather events, the main misconceptions surrounding weather and climate and the importance of weather science as climate change thunders forward. 

As California's rainy season contracts, the fire season expands. That's the prognosis from climate scientist Daniel Swain who wears hats with UCLA, California's Nature Conservancy and the National Center for Atmospheric Research.

Kurt Southern discusses his upcoming fight at Prestige Fight Club 1: Atonement where he will take on Daniel Swain. A seasoned MMA veteran Kurt "The Hurt" Southern looks to live up to his nickname on October 24th in Weyburn, Saskatchewan at the Crescent Point Place. Be sure to get your tickets to Canada's hottest show of the year, Prestige FC: Atonement, as soon as possible! They are moving fast!  For ticket information visit Prestige online at: https://www.facebook.com/PrestigeFightClubMma?fref=ts This episode was hosted by Cain Miller, please visit Cain online at our website and check out his interview series, "Cageside with Cain" featuring interviews with the best upcoming fighters in the sport of MMA! Visit Funky Monkey MMA Radio online at  http://FunkyMonkeyMMA.com Please visit our incredible sponsors online at: Altercation Clothing: http://altercationfightgear.com/ Legends of the Cage: http://www.legendsofthecage.com/ Please email us at: FunkyMonkeyMMA@gmail.com for sponsorship information, comments, or questions regarding the show

Welcome back to another edition of Sucka Radio here on MMASucka.com and Lastwordonsports.com.Our one fantastic guest makes his fourth appearance in the cage at Prestige FC 1 on October 24 in Canada against Kurt Southern.Daniel Swain stops by to talk about his first Canadian fight since 2012, his four fights in 2015, fighting in Russia, how his game has changed with Trevor Prangley's AKA and much more.As always you can you can listen to Sucka Radio on Stitcher HERE, iTunes HERE, TuneIn HERE, on MMASucka.com HERE and LastwordonSports.com.Make sure you stop by our sponsors’ sites at ProAmBelts.com, FloatHouse.ca and BCKimonos.ca.

It's time for another episode of Sucka Radio.Two weeks in a row and this one is a doozy.We welcome MMA Opinion's Ian Bain back to the show to discuss all things MMA. Including Conor McGregor, Vitor Belfort vs. Chris Weidman, UFC on FOX 12 and more.RFA 16's co-main event short notice replacement Daniel Swain then joins the show. He chats about his thought process on taking the fight on just over one weeks notice, his opponent Jarred Mercado and much more.As always, Justin Pierrot joins the show with his newly named "Unpopular Opinions."As always you can you can listen to Sucka Radio on Stitcher HERE, iTunes HERE, TuneIn HERE and on MMASucka.com HERE.All that and more brought to you by our good friends at Onnit. Make sure you head over to Onnit and get yourself 10% off with the coupon code “MMASUCKA”

XFC 27 main event competitor, Daniel Swain talks life as a martial artist inside and outside of the cage and his upcoming fight with Junior Assuncao at XFC 27.   XFC 27: Frozen Fury  invades L.C. Walker Arena in Muskegon, Michigan on December 13th and airs live on AXS TV.  Visit the Funky Monkey online at FunkyMonkeyMMA.com