Across the Sky

Hurricane season has arrived and all signs are pointing to a very busy year. Dr. Mike Brennan, the director of NOAA's National Hurricane Center, joins the Lee Weather Team this week to discuss everything you need to know for the 2024 season. Brennan and the team break down the number of storms expected and the reasons why this season is expected to be particularly active. They also discuss the science behind hurricane forecasting, the role of climate change, and the critical impacts of water hazards like storm surge and freshwater flooding. Brennan also shares some of the changes the National Hurricane Center has made to better prepare people for storms and steps you can take to keep you and your loved ones safe. We want to hear from you! Have a question for the meteorologists? Call 609-272-7099 and leave a message. You might hear your question and get an answer on a future episode! You can also email questions or comments to podcasts@lee.net, subject line: Across The Sky. Check out our sponsor, WeatherCall NexGen! Receive precise, location-specific weather alerts via phone, text, or email. With over a decade of experience, WeatherCall delivers pinpoint accuracy for your exact address, ensuring no surprises. Explore the WeatherCall difference today! Visit: https://weathercallservices.com/lee-enterprises About the Across the Sky podcast A weekly podcast discussing all things weather and climate. The podcast is hosted by the meteorologists of the Lee Weather Team: Matt Holiner of Lee Enterprises' Midwest group in Chicago, Kirsten Lang of the Tulsa World in Oklahoma, Joe Martucci of the Press of Atlantic City, N.J., and Sean Sublette of the Richmond Times-Dispatch in Virginia.

Summer travel season is here! This week, The Weather Channel's Jen Carfagno joins the team to share her weather coverage travel stories.  Hurricanes and snowstorms can be harrowing and bring their own set of challenges, but she also shares her more comforting travel stories to Punxsatawney each year for Groundhog Day. We want to hear from you! Have a question for the meteorologists? Call 609-272-7099 and leave a message. You might hear your question and get an answer on a future episode! You can also email questions or comments to podcasts@lee.net, subject line: Across The Sky. Check out our sponsor, WeatherCall NexGen! Receive precise, location-specific weather alerts via phone, text, or email. With over a decade of experience, WeatherCall delivers pinpoint accuracy for your exact address, ensuring no surprises. Explore the WeatherCall difference today! Visit: https://weathercallservices.com/lee-enterprises About the Across the Sky podcast A weekly podcast discussing all things weather and climate. The podcast is hosted by the meteorologists of the Lee Weather Team: Matt Holiner of Lee Enterprises' Midwest group in Chicago, Kirsten Lang of the Tulsa World in Oklahoma, Joe Martucci of the Press of Atlantic City, N.J., and Sean Sublette of the Richmond Times-Dispatch in Virginia.

Summer is just around the corner, and with it comes the anticipation of beach days, barbecues and, unfortunately, the potential for extreme weather. In this episode of Across the Sky, meteorologists Sean Sublette, Matt Holiner and Joe Martucci discuss the summer weather outlook for 2024, from the bustling Jersey Shore to heat-weary Texas.  We delve into the complexities of forecasting seasonal trends and the impact of climate change with special guest Jan Dutton, a meteorologist from Prescient Weather, who provides valuable insights for businesses in agriculture, energy and insurance. Tune in as we explore the science behind seasonal forecasts, the factors influencing this summer's weather patterns and the unseen effects of climate variability on global economies. We want to hear from you! Have a question for the meteorologists? Call 609-272-7099 and leave a message. You might hear your question and get an answer on a future episode! You can also email questions or comments to podcasts@lee.net, subject line: Across The Sky. Check out our sponsor, WeatherCall NexGen! Receive precise, location-specific weather alerts via phone, text, or email. With over a decade of experience, WeatherCall delivers pinpoint accuracy for your exact address, ensuring no surprises. Explore the WeatherCall difference today! Visit: https://weathercallservices.com/lee-enterprises About the Across the Sky podcast A weekly podcast discussing all things weather and climate. The podcast is hosted by the meteorologists of the Lee Weather Team: Matt Holiner of Lee Enterprises' Midwest group in Chicago, Kirsten Lang of the Tulsa World in Oklahoma, Joe Martucci of the Press of Atlantic City, N.J., and Sean Sublette of the Richmond Times-Dispatch in Virginia.

Tornado history goes beyond path lengths and EF ratings. Since 2016, Jennifer Narramore — owner and co-founder of Tornado Talk — and her team have been bringing forward tornado survival stories from the last 70 years. Whether the stories come from massive super outbreaks or isolated storms, their first-person interviews with those who were impacted are a vivid reminder of how tornadoes can change lives and communities forever. Listen to some of those stories on this week's episode and check out all of their work at tornadotalk.com. We want to hear from you! Have a question for the meteorologists? Call 609-272-7099 and leave a message. You might hear your question and get an answer on a future episode! You can also email questions or comments to podcasts@lee.net, subject line: Across The Sky. Check out our sponsor, WeatherCall NexGen! Receive precise, location-specific weather alerts via phone, text, or email. With over a decade of experience, WeatherCall delivers pinpoint accuracy for your exact address, ensuring no surprises. Explore the WeatherCall difference today! Visit: https://weathercallservices.com/lee-enterprises About the Across the Sky podcast A weekly podcast discussing all things weather and climate. The podcast is hosted by the meteorologists of the Lee Weather Team: Matt Holiner of Lee Enterprises' Midwest group in Chicago, Kirsten Lang of the Tulsa World in Oklahoma, Joe Martucci of the Press of Atlantic City, N.J., and Sean Sublette of the Richmond Times-Dispatch in Virginia.

You can't talk about air travel without talking about weather. That's why all major airlines employ their own team of meteorologists. But what are their specifc responsibilities and how do they help get the planes where they need to be?David Dillahunt, the chief meteorologist at Southwest Airlines, joins the podcast to explain how he and his team support the daily decisions on air traffic — including delays, reroutes, and cancelations. He also discusses what weather concerns airlines the most and why flying first thing in the morning is usually the best decision during the summer. It's an episode you'll definitely want to listen to before (or on!) your next flight. We want to hear from you! Have a question for the meteorologists? Call 609-272-7099 and leave a message. You might hear your question and get an answer on a future episode! You can also email questions or comments to podcasts@lee.net, subject line: Across The Sky. Check out our sponsor, WeatherCall NexGen! Receive precise, location-specific weather alerts via phone, text, or email. With over a decade of experience, WeatherCall delivers pinpoint accuracy for your exact address, ensuring no surprises. Explore the WeatherCall difference today! Visit: https://weathercallservices.com/lee-enterprises About the Across the Sky podcast A weekly podcast discussing all things weather and climate. The podcast is hosted by the meteorologists of the Lee Weather Team: Matt Holiner of Lee Enterprises' Midwest group in Chicago, Kirsten Lang of the Tulsa World in Oklahoma, Joe Martucci of the Press of Atlantic City, N.J., and Sean Sublette of the Richmond Times-Dispatch in Virginia.

As severe storm season nears its peak, we tackle some persistent myths about lightning and why they have continued for so long.   Meteorologist and lightning expert Chris Vagasky joins the team to explain why no place outside is safe during a thunderstorm and what lightning detection notifications on your weather app are really telling you. He also discusses lightning mitigation technology, the frequency of lightning strikes, and shares other facts and safety tips to help clear the air about this powerful force of nature. We want to hear from you! Have a question for the meteorologists? Call 609-272-7099 and leave a message. You might hear your question and get an answer on a future episode! You can also email questions or comments to podcasts@lee.net, subject line: Across The Sky. Check out our sponsor, WeatherCall NexGen! Receive precise, location-specific weather alerts via phone, text, or email. With over a decade of experience, WeatherCall delivers pinpoint accuracy for your exact address, ensuring no surprises. Explore the WeatherCall difference today! Visit: https://weathercallservices.com/lee-enterprises About the Across the Sky podcast A weekly podcast discussing all things weather and climate. The podcast is hosted by the meteorologists of the Lee Weather Team: Matt Holiner of Lee Enterprises' Midwest group in Chicago, Kirsten Lang of the Tulsa World in Oklahoma, Joe Martucci of the Press of Atlantic City, N.J., and Sean Sublette of the Richmond Times-Dispatch in Virginia.

Negative stories about climate change come at us every day, but there are positive stories bubbling up that illustrate the innovations being made to slow the pace of the warming climate and conserve the environment.In honor of Earth Day, CNN's Chief Climate Correspondent Bill Weir joins the podcast to share some of those stories from his travels. He also discusses what made him shift his career from sports reporting to the climate change beat, why positive story telling is so important, and his new book, Life As We Know It (Can Be). We want to hear from you! Have a question for the meteorologists? Call 609-272-7099 and leave a message. You might hear your question and get an answer on a future episode! You can also email questions or comments to podcasts@lee.net, subject line: Across The Sky. Check out our sponsor, WeatherCall NexGen! Receive precise, location-specific weather alerts via phone, text, or email. With over a decade of experience, WeatherCall delivers pinpoint accuracy for your exact address, ensuring no surprises. Explore the WeatherCall difference today! Visit: https://weathercallservices.com/lee-enterprises About the Across the Sky podcast A weekly podcast discussing all things weather and climate. The podcast is hosted by the meteorologists of the Lee Weather Team: Matt Holiner of Lee Enterprises' Midwest group in Chicago, Kirsten Lang of the Tulsa World in Oklahoma, Joe Martucci of the Press of Atlantic City, N.J., and Sean Sublette of the Richmond Times-Dispatch in Virginia.

How you get weather information is changing and changing fast. First came newspapers, then came television, but increasingly, people are getting their forecasts on digital platforms, including news websites, social media, and weather apps. With explosive growth in this sector, some meteorologists have chosen to focus on digital exclusively. In this special collaborative episode, the Lee Weather Team talks with Meteorologist Emily Gracey from The National Weather Desk and host of the Off The Radar podcast about the world of digital meteorology. How does it differ from traditional broadcast meteorology? What are the advantages and disadvantages? With so many sources of weather information now, how do you know which to trust? And if you've ever wondered what goes on behind the scenes of your favorite weather podcast, this is the episode for you! We want to hear from you! Have a question for the meteorologists? Call 609-272-7099 and leave a message. You might hear your question and get an answer on a future episode! You can also email questions or comments to podcasts@lee.net, subject line: Across The Sky. Check out our sponsor, WeatherCall NexGen! Receive precise, location-specific weather alerts via phone, text, or email. With over a decade of experience, WeatherCall delivers pinpoint accuracy for your exact address, ensuring no surprises. Explore the WeatherCall difference today! Visit: https://weathercallservices.com/lee-enterprises About the Across the Sky podcast A weekly podcast discussing all things weather and climate. The podcast is hosted by the meteorologists of the Lee Weather Team: Matt Holiner of Lee Enterprises' Midwest group in Chicago, Kirsten Lang of the Tulsa World in Oklahoma, Joe Martucci of the Press of Atlantic City, N.J., and Sean Sublette of the Richmond Times-Dispatch in Virginia.

Colorado State University, one of the premier organizations behind hurricane seasonal forecasting, has issued its most aggressive seasonal hurricane outlook on record — with 23 named storms for the 2024 Atlantic season. Alex DesRosiers from Colorado State joins the team to talk about why the season is expected to be so active, and to discuss his research that looks deeper into what causes hurricanes to undergo rapid intensification. We want to hear from you! Have a question for the meteorologists? Call 609-272-7099 and leave a message. You might hear your question and get an answer on a future episode! You can also email questions or comments to podcasts@lee.net, subject line: Across The Sky. Check out our sponsor, WeatherCall NexGen! Receive precise, location-specific weather alerts via phone, text, or email. With over a decade of experience, WeatherCall delivers pinpoint accuracy for your exact address, ensuring no surprises. Explore the WeatherCall difference today! Visit: https://weathercallservices.com/lee-enterprises About the Across the Sky podcast A weekly podcast discussing all things weather and climate. The podcast is hosted by the meteorologists of the Lee Weather Team: Matt Holiner of Lee Enterprises' Midwest group in Chicago, Kirsten Lang of the Tulsa World in Oklahoma, Joe Martucci of the Press of Atlantic City, N.J., and Sean Sublette of the Richmond Times-Dispatch in Virginia.

After the warmest winter on record in the United States, trees are budding and blooming early in much of the country.  What does that mean for pollen and allergy seasons now and in the future?  And how does that impact fruits like peaches, cherries, and apples later in the season? Theresa Crimmins from the National Phenology Network at the University of Arizona joins the team to explain why some pollens are getting more allergenic, why some are not allergenic, and how you can help them gather data for better phenology forecasts.Learn more at: https://www.usanpn.org/ We want to hear from you! Have a question for the meteorologists? Call 609-272-7099 and leave a message. You might hear your question and get an answer on a future episode! You can also email questions or comments to podcasts@lee.net, subject line: Across The Sky. Check out our sponsor, WeatherCall NexGen! Receive precise, location-specific weather alerts via phone, text, or email. With over a decade of experience, WeatherCall delivers pinpoint accuracy for your exact address, ensuring no surprises. Explore the WeatherCall difference today! Visit: https://weathercallservices.com/lee-enterprises About the Across the Sky podcast A weekly podcast discussing all things weather and climate. The podcast is hosted by the meteorologists of the Lee Weather Team: Matt Holiner of Lee Enterprises' Midwest group in Chicago, Kirsten Lang of the Tulsa World in Oklahoma, Joe Martucci of the Press of Atlantic City, N.J., and Sean Sublette of the Richmond Times-Dispatch in Virginia.

Special Edition of "Across the Sky" It's our FIRST special edition episode and it's for a very timely guest.  College basketball statistician Ken Pomeroy (aka KenPom) comes on the podcast to talk about his wildly popular basketball analytics website. Why is he on? He's a meteorologist! Ken explains how he made the seamless transition from understanding statistics in meteorology to applying them to college basketball. He and the podcast team talk about the upsets that have already happened in this year's NCAA Tournament. Plus, why understanding probabilities, in both basketball and weather forecasting, are increasingly important. We want to hear from you! Have a question for the meteorologists? Call 609-272-7099 and leave a message. You might hear your question and get an answer on a future episode! You can also email questions or comments to podcasts@lee.net, subject line: Across The Sky. Check out our sponsor, WeatherCall NexGen! Receive precise, location-specific weather alerts via phone, text, or email. With over a decade of experience, WeatherCall delivers pinpoint accuracy for your exact address, ensuring no surprises. Explore the WeatherCall difference today! Visit: https://weathercallservices.com/lee-enterprises About the Across the Sky podcast A weekly podcast discussing all things weather and climate. The podcast is hosted by the meteorologists of the Lee Weather Team: Matt Holiner of Lee Enterprises' Midwest group in Chicago, Kirsten Lang of the Tulsa World in Oklahoma, Joe Martucci of the Press of Atlantic City, N.J., and Sean Sublette of the Richmond Times-Dispatch in Virginia.

Thunderstorms, hurricanes, and heatwaves all impact how electricity is generated and how it gets to your home. But not all weather impacts it equally.  Plus, as renewable energy continues to scale up, how is high-precision weather forecasting going to ensure reliable power to homes and businesses? Meteorologists Jeff Mock and Erin Guidry Hurd from Dominion Energy in Virginia join us to talk about how weather impacts the power grid and how they work with other power companies to minimize disruptions and get people back online after a storm. We want to hear from you! Have a question for the meteorologists? Call 609-272-7099 and leave a message. You might hear your question and get an answer on a future episode! You can also email questions or comments to podcasts@lee.net, subject line: Across The Sky. Check out our sponsor, WeatherCall NexGen! Receive precise, location-specific weather alerts via phone, text, or email. With over a decade of experience, WeatherCall delivers pinpoint accuracy for your exact address, ensuring no surprises. Explore the WeatherCall difference today! Visit: https://weathercallservices.com/lee-enterprises About the Across the Sky podcast A weekly podcast discussing all things weather and climate. The podcast is hosted by the meteorologists of the Lee Weather Team: Matt Holiner of Lee Enterprises' Midwest group in Chicago, Kirsten Lang of the Tulsa World in Oklahoma, Joe Martucci of the Press of Atlantic City, N.J., and Sean Sublette of the Richmond Times-Dispatch in Virginia.

Of all the seasons, spring is the most volatile. Warm, quiet conditions can quickly change to cold and windy. Thunderstorms and tornadoes can be followed by piles of snow. With the spring equinox occurring this week, the Lee Weather Team has pinpointed the 10 most important things you should know about spring weather. What is a red flag warning? What weather conditions cause pollen levels to rise and fall? When does the last freeze typically occur? The team dives into all of this. And no podcast on spring can leave out severe weather. The meteorologists discuss damaging wind, hail, and tornadoes and share their biggest tornado safety tips. It's everything you need to know to be ready for spring on this week's episode! We want to hear from you! Have a question for the meteorologists? Call 609-272-7099 and leave a message. You might hear your question and get an answer on a future episode! You can also email questions or comments to podcasts@lee.net, subject line: Across The Sky.Check out our sponsor, WeatherCall NexGen!Receive precise, location-specific weather alerts via phone, text, or email. With over a decade of experience, WeatherCall delivers pinpoint accuracy for your exact address, ensuring no surprises. Explore the WeatherCall difference today! Visit: https://weathercallservices.com/lee-enterprises About the Across the Sky podcast A weekly podcast discussing all things weather and climate. The podcast is hosted by the meteorologists of the Lee Weather Team: Matt Holiner of Lee Enterprises' Midwest group in Chicago, Kirsten Lang of the Tulsa World in Oklahoma, Joe Martucci of the Press of Atlantic City, N.J., and Sean Sublette of the Richmond Times-Dispatch in Virginia.

We're less than a month away from the astronomical event of the year, the 2024 total solar eclipse. Seeing a total solar eclipse is a truly awe-inspriring experience and you don't want to miss this one, because there won't be another visible in the United States until the mid 2040s. To get you prepared, NASA Ambassador Tony Rice joins the podcast this week with everything you need to know about the eclipse on Monday, April 8. What is it like to witness a total solar eclipse? Tony and the team break down what to expect. Tony also explains the importance of the path of totality and where along the path you should be to have the best viewing experience. He also covers eclipse safety and how to make sure your eclipse glasses are legit. Tony and the team also discuss who has the best chance for clear skies and why it matters. Finally, will the traffic for this eclipse really be as bad as feared? Hear about eclipse logistics and the lessons learned since the last total solar eclipse in 2017. Want to learn even more about the 2024 total solar eclipse? Visit these sites:https://eclipse.aas.org/https://science.nasa.gov/eclipses/future-eclipses/eclipse-2024/ We want to hear from you! Have a question for the meteorologists? Call 609-272-7099 and leave a message. You might hear your question and get an answer on a future episode! You can also email questions or comments to podcasts@lee.net, subject line: Across The Sky.Check out our sponsor, WeatherCall NexGen!Receive precise, location-specific weather alerts via phone, text, or email. With over a decade of experience, WeatherCall delivers pinpoint accuracy for your exact address, ensuring no surprises. Explore the WeatherCall difference today! Visit: https://weathercallservices.com/lee-enterprises About the Across the Sky podcast A weekly podcast discussing all things weather and climate. The podcast is hosted by the meteorologists of the Lee Weather Team: Matt Holiner of Lee Enterprises' Midwest group in Chicago, Kirsten Lang of the Tulsa World in Oklahoma, Joe Martucci of the Press of Atlantic City, N.J., and Sean Sublette of the Richmond Times-Dispatch in Virginia.

Thunderstorms and winter storms get top billing when it comes to air travel delays.  But what else should you be looking for when planning a flight or waiting at the airport? Rob Eicher from Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University tells us what commercial air travelers should know about the types of weather that disrupt travel the most, both before and during a flight.  From tornadoes to turbulence, Rob has a few things to remember the next time you're stuck at the gate.  We want to hear from you! Have a question for the meteorologists? Call 609-272-7099 and leave a message. You might hear your question and get an answer on a future episode! You can also email questions or comments to podcasts@lee.net, subject line: Across The Sky.Check out our sponsor, WeatherCall NexGen!Receive precise, location-specific weather alerts via phone, text, or email. With over a decade of experience, WeatherCall delivers pinpoint accuracy for your exact address, ensuring no surprises. Explore the WeatherCall difference today! Visit: https://weathercallservices.com/lee-enterprises About the Across the Sky podcast A weekly podcast discussing all things weather and climate. The podcast is hosted by the meteorologists of the Lee Weather Team: Matt Holiner of Lee Enterprises' Midwest group in Chicago, Kirsten Lang of the Tulsa World in Oklahoma, Joe Martucci of the Press of Atlantic City, N.J., and Sean Sublette of the Richmond Times-Dispatch in Virginia.

Late February and early March is usually when ice cover peaks on the Great Lakes. But there's not much this year. In fact, ice levels are at or near record lows. In a warming world, is this the new normal? Physical Scientist Bryan Mroczka joins the podcast this week from the NOAA Great Lakes Environmental Research Lab to give perspective. Bryan shares the history of ice cover on the Great Lakes and why this year's low amounts are truly exceptional. He discusses the impacts being felt across the region right now and what lingering impacts may be for the rest of 2024. Finally, he looks at the big picture. How common will low ice cover like this be in the years ahead and what does it mean for the people, economy, and environment around the Great Lakes? We want to hear from you! Have a question for the meteorologists? Call 609-272-7099 and leave a message. You might hear your question and get an answer on a future episode! You can also email questions or comments to podcasts@lee.net, subject line: Across The Sky.Check out our sponsor, WeatherCall NexGen!Receive precise, location-specific weather alerts via phone, text, or email. With over a decade of experience, WeatherCall delivers pinpoint accuracy for your exact address, ensuring no surprises. Explore the WeatherCall difference today! Visit: https://weathercallservices.com/lee-enterprises About the Across the Sky podcast A weekly podcast discussing all things weather and climate. The podcast is hosted by the meteorologists of the Lee Weather Team: Matt Holiner of Lee Enterprises' Midwest group in Chicago, Kirsten Lang of the Tulsa World in Oklahoma, Joe Martucci of the Press of Atlantic City, N.J., and Sean Sublette of the Richmond Times-Dispatch in Virginia.

Computer weather models are the biggest tool meteorologists use to forecast the weather. But why are there so many, which one is the best, and why aren't they all better? On this week's episode, the weather team digs deep into the world of computer weather modeling, also known as numerical weather prediction. The team discusses how it all started and how it's advanced over time. They also break down the advantages and disadvantages of the various weather models, including the two that people hear about the most, the GFS (American) and ECMWF (European). Finally, they discuss the efforts to improve the model forecasts and how artificial intelligence will likely play a big role.  We want to hear from you! Have a question for the meteorologists? Call 609-272-7099 and leave a message. You might hear your question and get an answer on a future episode! You can also email questions or comments to podcasts@lee.net.Check out our sponsor, WeatherCall NexGen!Receive precise, location-specific weather alerts via phone, text, or email. With over a decade of experience, WeatherCall delivers pinpoint accuracy for your exact address, ensuring no surprises. Explore the WeatherCall difference today! Visit: https://weathercallservices.com/lee-enterprises About the Across the Sky podcast A weekly podcast discussing all things weather and climate. The podcast is hosted by the meteorologists of the Lee Weather Team: Matt Holiner of Lee Enterprises' Midwest group in Chicago, Kirsten Lang of the Tulsa World in Oklahoma, Joe Martucci of the Press of Atlantic City, N.J., and Sean Sublette of the Richmond Times-Dispatch in Virginia.

Mike Witcher had been working as a broadcast meteorologist in Knoxville, Tennessee for more than a decade. Then, in 2023, he decided to take matters into his own hands. He created East TN Weather and became his own weather media company for local residents.  Mike is a part of a very small, but emerging sector of meteorology. Entrepreneurs who want to inform the public of what's going on with the weather. Mike sells his own advertising and it's up to him to provide updates around the clock. However, he says being your own boss and having a home studio, equipped with state of the art weather graphics, has improved his quality of life. Hear all about how Mike did this and all the advantages and disadvantages that come with this unique job on this week's episode of Across the Sky! We want to hear from you! Have a question for the meteorologists? Call 609-272-7099 and leave a message. You might hear your question and get an answer on a future episode! You can also email questions or comments to podcasts@lee.net.Check out our sponsor, WeatherCall NexGen!Receive precise, location-specific weather alerts via phone, text, or email. With over a decade of experience, WeatherCall delivers pinpoint accuracy for your exact address, ensuring no surprises. Explore the WeatherCall difference today! Visit: https://weathercallservices.com/lee-enterprises About the Across the Sky podcast A weekly podcast discussing all things weather and climate. The podcast is hosted by the meteorologists of the Lee Weather Team: Matt Holiner of Lee Enterprises' Midwest group in Chicago, Kirsten Lang of the Tulsa World in Oklahoma, Joe Martucci of the Press of Atlantic City, N.J., and Sean Sublette of the Richmond Times-Dispatch in Virginia.

Each year, The American Meteorological Society's Annual Meeting is the ultimate gathering for the weather community. Researchers, forecasters, and storm chasers alike come together to share their work, network, and try to solve some of meteorology's greatest challenges.  The 104th AMS Annual Meeting just wrapped up in Baltimore, Maryland. Two members of the Lee Weather Team, Meteorologist Sean Sublette and Meteorologist Joe Martucci, were in attendence and they share their thoughts and reactions on this week's episode. The two discuss the talks that stood out to them the most, the work they presented, and what it's like being at a meeting with so many other meteorologists. They also chat about who they met and who might be a guest on a future episode! We want to hear from you! Have a question for the meteorologists? Call 609-272-7099 and leave a message. You might hear your question and get an answer on a future episode! You can also email questions or comments to podcasts@lee.net.Check out our sponsor, WeatherCall NexGen!Receive precise, location-specific weather alerts via phone, text, or email. With over a decade of experience, WeatherCall delivers pinpoint accuracy for your exact address, ensuring no surprises. Explore the WeatherCall difference today! Visit: https://weathercallservices.com/lee-enterprises About the Across the Sky podcast A weekly podcast discussing all things weather and climate. The podcast is hosted by the meteorologists of the Lee Weather Team: Matt Holiner of Lee Enterprises' Midwest group in Chicago, Kirsten Lang of the Tulsa World in Oklahoma, Joe Martucci of the Press of Atlantic City, N.J., and Sean Sublette of the Richmond Times-Dispatch in Virginia.

In order to predict how the weather will change, an accurate picture of what's happening now is needed. While current conditions at the surface are well known thanks to weather stations, there are significant gaps in the data higher up in the atmosphere. Unmanned aerial vehicles, better known as drones, could help fill in those gaps significantly. Dr. Jamey Jacob from Oklahoma State University is leading the charge on bringing drones into the field of meteorology. He joins the podcast this week to talk about what kind of data drones can collect and the advantages they have over weather balloons and airplanes. He also discusses the current limitations and what will be needed before they can be used on a large-scale to improve weather forecasts. We want to hear from you! Have a question for the meteorologists? Call 609-272-7099 and leave a message. You might hear your question and get an answer on a future episode! You can also email questions or comments to podcasts@lee.net.Check out our sponsor, WeatherCall NexGen!Receive precise, location-specific weather alerts via phone, text, or email. With over a decade of experience, WeatherCall delivers pinpoint accuracy for your exact address, ensuring no surprises. Explore the WeatherCall difference today! Visit: https://weathercallservices.com/lee-enterprises About the Across the Sky podcast A weekly podcast discussing all things weather and climate. The podcast is hosted by the meteorologists of the Lee Weather Team: Matt Holiner of Lee Enterprises' Midwest group in Chicago, Kirsten Lang of the Tulsa World in Oklahoma, Joe Martucci of the Press of Atlantic City, N.J., and Sean Sublette of the Richmond Times-Dispatch in Virginia.

Weather and cars do not get along. Each year, about 21% of car crashes in the United States involve adverse weather conditions, resulting in thousands of injuries and deaths. We can't prevent bad weather, but new technology is being developed to keep drivers safer. Dr. Scott Mackaro, the head of Insights and Innovation for Vaisala Xweather, joins the podcast this week to talk about road weather data. Why is it so difficult for drivers to receive accurate information on road conditions? What can be done to make it more easily accessible? The team also looks ahead to the future and discusses how self-driving cars could be the ultimate key to minimizing weather-related crashes and when that day may come.We want to hear from you! Have a question for the meteorologists? Call 609-272-7099 and leave a message. You might hear your question and get an answer on a future episode! You can also email questions or comments to podcasts@lee.net. About the Across the Sky podcast A weekly podcast discussing all things weather and climate. The podcast is hosted by the meteorologists of the Lee Weather Team: Matt Holiner of Lee Enterprises' Midwest group in Chicago, Kirsten Lang of the Tulsa World in Oklahoma, Joe Martucci of the Press of Atlantic City, N.J., and Sean Sublette of the Richmond Times-Dispatch in Virginia.Check out our sponsor, WeatherCall NexGen!Receive precise, location-specific weather alerts via phone, text, or email. With over a decade of experience, WeatherCall delivers pinpoint accuracy for your exact address, ensuring no surprises. Explore the WeatherCall difference today! Visit: https://weathercallservices.com/lee-enterprises

According to NOAA and NASA, 2023 was the hottest year on record, as greenhouse gases from fossil fuels continue to increase. Renewable energy sources are scaling up, but how fast is the transitioning happening, and what are the roadblocks? Andrew Dessler from Texas A&M joins the team to talk candidly about energy solutions to climate change. We want to hear from you! Have a question for the meteorologists? Call 609-272-7099 and leave a message. You might hear your question and get an answer on a future episode! You can also email questions or comments to podcasts@lee.net. About the Across the Sky podcast The weekly weather podcast is hosted on a rotation by the Lee Weather team: Matt Holiner of Lee Enterprises' Midwest group in Chicago, Kirsten Lang of the Tulsa World in Oklahoma, Joe Martucci of the Press of Atlantic City, N.J., and Sean Sublette of the Richmond Times-Dispatch in Virginia.Visit our sponsor: WeatherCall NexGen!Get precise, location-specific weather alerts via phone, text, or email. With over a decade of experience, WeatherCall delivers pinpoint accuracy for your exact address, ensuring no surprises!  Visit: https://weathercallservices.com/lee-enterprisesSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The month of January is often considered the most depressing of the year. The holidays are over, credit card bills are coming due, and the days are short and cold. While many suffer from the winter blues, for some it's a more serious condition known as seasonal affective disorder or SAD for short. Jasmine Wilson with the Ascension Medical Group joins the podcast this week for an in-depth discussion of SAD and how the weather plays a role in triggering it. She explains the symptoms that are characteristic of SAD, who is most vulnerable, and what treatments are available to overcome it. We want to hear from you! Have a question for the meteorologists? Call 609-272-7099 and leave a message. You might hear your question and get an answer on a future episode! You can also email questions or comments to podcasts@lee.net. About the Across the Sky podcast The weekly weather podcast is hosted on a rotation by the Lee Weather team: Matt Holiner of Lee Enterprises' Midwest group in Chicago, Kirsten Lang of the Tulsa World in Oklahoma, Joe Martucci of the Press of Atlantic City, N.J., and Sean Sublette of the Richmond Times-Dispatch in Virginia.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

2024 has arrived, but we can't start a new year without looking back at the previous year. There was plenty of weather to talk about in 2023. The United States saw a record number of billion-dollar weather disasters, so picking the biggest weather stories of the year was not easy. Ten events stood out to our meteorologists the most though. The team discusses each one from the beginning of the year until the end. From a phenomenal deluge in Florida, unprecedented levels of smoke, to a raging firestorm in Hawaii, the weather in 2023 will not soon be forgotten. We want to hear from you! Have a question for the meteorologists? Call 609-272-7099 and leave a message. You might hear your question and get an answer on a future episode! You can also email questions or comments to podcasts@lee.net. About the Across the Sky podcast The weekly weather podcast is hosted on a rotation by the Lee Weather team: Matt Holiner of Lee Enterprises' Midwest group in Chicago, Kirsten Lang of the Tulsa World in Oklahoma, Joe Martucci of the Press of Atlantic City, N.J., and Sean Sublette of the Richmond Times-Dispatch in Virginia.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This week marks the official start of winter, arguably the most polarizing season of all. While some enjoy the spirit of the holidays, others bemoan the short, cold days. While some love the sight of fresh snow on the ground, others dread having to break out the the snow shovels and ice scrapers again. Regardless of how you feel about winter, there's a lot of weather to talk about, so this week the Lee Weather Team breaks down their top 10 things to know about the season. From how snow forms, why wind makes cold weather feel so much worse, winter storm safety, to a rare form of precipitation called graupel, it's a discussion of the most important and interesting things about winter. We want to hear from you! Have a question for the meteorologists? Call 609-272-7099 and leave a message. You might hear your question and get an answer on a future episode! You can also email questions or comments to podcasts@lee.net. About the Across the Sky podcast The weekly weather podcast is hosted on a rotation by the Lee Weather team: Matt Holiner of Lee Enterprises' Midwest group in Chicago, Kirsten Lang of the Tulsa World in Oklahoma, Joe Martucci of the Press of Atlantic City, N.J., and Sean Sublette of the Richmond Times-Dispatch in Virginia.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It's well known that snow, wind, and rain impacts whether or not people go out of their house to shop. What​'s lesser known is how the amount of rain and snow impacts how much online shopping Americans do. John Cardinale, a meteorologist and Director of Search Engine Optimization for Tapestry (owners of Coach, Kate Spade, and more), joins the podcast to discuss what trends he's seen and what companies are doing to drive online sales based on the weather. We want to hear from you! Have a question for the meteorologists? Call 609-272-7099 and leave a message. You might hear your question and get an answer on a future episode! You can also email questions or comments to podcasts@lee.net. About the Across the Sky podcast The weekly weather podcast is hosted on a rotation by the Lee Weather team: Matt Holiner of Lee Enterprises' Midwest group in Chicago, Kirsten Lang of the Tulsa World in Oklahoma, Joe Martucci of the Press of Atlantic City, N.J., and Sean Sublette of the Richmond Times-Dispatch in Virginia.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bob Dylan, the world renowned musical artist whose career now spans seven decades, has kept weather core to his writing. How so? Out of approximately 465 total Dylan songs, the word 'sun' is found in 63 different ones, 'wind' in 55, 'rain' in 40, and 'sky' in 36. 'Cloud', 'storm', 'summer', 'snow', and just 'weather' have been used in dozens more. Alan Robock, Distinguished Professor in the Department of Environmental Sciences at Rutgers University wrote all about this in his 2004 journal article Tonight as I stand in the Rain: Bob Dylan and Weather Imagery.  Robock, who just attended his 49th Bob Dylan show in November 2023, joins the podcast crew to take an inside look into Dylan's weather lyrics. Robock explores Dylan's weather topics, like whether you need a weatherman to see which way the wind blows (Subterranean Homesick Blues). Robock also hypothesizes why Dylan sings about the weather so much and more.  We want to hear from you! Have a question for the meteorologists? Call 609-272-7099 and leave a message. You might hear your question and get an answer on a future episode! You can also email questions or comments to podcasts@lee.net. About the Across the Sky podcast The weekly weather podcast is hosted on a rotation by the Lee Weather team: Matt Holiner of Lee Enterprises' Midwest group in Chicago, Kirsten Lang of the Tulsa World in Oklahoma, Joe Martucci of the Press of Atlantic City, N.J., and Sean Sublette of the Richmond Times-Dispatch in Virginia.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

What do you get when you blend athletic skill with a love for weather? An elite ninja warrior, of course! Joe Moravsky is a meteorologist and the manager of the Stamford Ninja Academy in Connecticut. He has appeared on multiple seasons of the hit NBC series "American Ninja Warrior" and is one of the show's most successful contestants. Moravsky shares his unique story and discusses his background in weather and athletics on this week's episode. We want to hear from you! Have a question for the meteorologists? Call 609-272-7099 and leave a message. You might hear your question and get an answer on a future episode! You can also email questions or comments to podcasts@lee.net. About the Across the Sky podcast The weekly weather podcast is hosted on a rotation by the Lee Weather team: Matt Holiner of Lee Enterprises' Midwest group in Chicago, Kirsten Lang of the Tulsa World in Oklahoma, Joe Martucci of the Press of Atlantic City, N.J., and Sean Sublette of the Richmond Times-Dispatch in Virginia. Episode transcript Note: The following transcript was created by Headliner and may contain misspellings and other inaccuracies as it was generated automatically: Ninja Warrior Weatherman Forecasts His Future Lee Enterprise National Weather podcast features Joe Moravsky from American Ninja Warrior Joe Martucci: Welcome back to another episode of the across the Sky Podcast, our Lee Enterprise National Weather podcast. We are joined with you from our meteorologist across the country. With us, today, Matt Holiner in Chicagoland, Sean Sublette over in Richmond, Virginia. Kirsten could not be with us today, but he will be back soon enough, of course, as we, go through the months and the year ahead, guys. So we've done sports in weather before, but we've never actually interviewed somebody who does sports and is a meteorologist. And we're going to have that for the first time today, as we welcome on Joe Morvasky from American Ninja Warrior. They call him the Weatherman, not just because that's what they just decide to call him, but he is a meteorologist. He got a meteorology degree, and we're very happy to have him. Matt Holiner: Yeah, there are not many meteorologists who are also athletes. We're kind of a nerdy bunch. And so, athletics is, for most of us. Most of us, it's, not our forte. We're more, into the books a little bit. The sciency nerds. Although I'd like to think we're the cool science nerds. We do focus on the cool part of science. Meteorology, I think, is the one that more people are like, oh, I like that kind of science. Maybe not so much the physics and chemistry. So I would say we were a cooler science, but, not too many of us athletically inclined. I'm certainly one. So it was really cool to chat with him about how he mixed these two worlds, how he kind of broke the mold of a meteorologist and really, got into the athletic side and how he got involved with American Ninja warrior, because that is very much a niche we're talking about in the sports world. That is a very big niche. So chatting with him about his interest in weather and also how he also has gone on this athletic path was really cool. Sean Sublette: Yeah, it's nice to see that because so many times, as you mentioned, Matt, we kind of get pigeonholed, if you will, into this is what a meteorologist or weatherman or whoever is like. This is what they're like for me, a little bit older. It was really kind of cool to see Cantore, the Weather Channel rise into popularity. Kind of gave our geekdom a little more street cred, if you will. So that's nice to see. And, of course, look, Jim is buff. I mean, dude is. Matt Holiner: That's just the way of the world. Sean Sublette: But it's good to show that this community of people who geek out about weather, do have a broader focus to have other interests. And, I think that's very important in this day of age. And certainly the stuff Joe is doing and how long he's been doing it honestly surprised me. So really looking forward to this conversation. Matt Holiner: Yeah. Joe Martucci: Well, let's dive into it here, get you into the episode with Joe Moravsky from American Ninja Warrior on the across the Sky podcast. American Ninja Warrior Joe Moravsky is the Weatherman Joe Martucci: All right, and it is time for our interview here with a very special guest. Don't know if we've ever, had this segment of meteorology before. How about American Ninja Warrior in Weather? I don't know if we've had that combination our podcast before. It might be a first, but we are very pleased to welcome on Joe Moravsky to the podcast. He is an American Ninja warrior athlete known as the Weatherman. He has competed since season five of American Ninja Warrior and has twice been the last ninja standing, beating everybody in the country. He is also a husband and father of three and currently manager of Stanford Ninja Academy in Stanford, Connecticut. He also got his meteorology degree from Western Connecticut State University. Joe, I think I'm saying that right. welcome to the pod. We appreciate it. Joe Morvasky: Thank you. Thank you guys for having me. It's funny, kind of breaking barriers, right? We got the sports world and the weather world, and we put them together with American, Ninja Warrior, the weatherman here. So, it's always, they're very unique conversations I end up having because, people are like, what is the weatherman? How does that have to do with Ninja? So I'm sure we're going to get into that today. Joe Martucci: Yeah, definitely. Well, I'll tell You what, Joe. So when I do, talks at schools and it's about different careers in weather or just kind of talking about what I do as a meteorologist, one of the slides I have is different segments of meteorology. So I talk about working in the National Weather Service, working in media, and then I say, sometimes you get to become an American Ninja warrior. And I use a photo of you in my PowerPoint presentation. So thank you for helping me talk to kids, all across New Jersey here. Joe Morvasky: No problem. We're on the same team, man. Joe Martucci: We're on the same, you know, weather is a small field. Joe Lacey says he always wanted to be a meteorologist Joe Martucci: So, let me ask you about the weather part first. How did you get interested in weather? Was there something that just bit you? Ah, like a lot of people. Did you fall into it? Joe Morvasky: How did it work out? I'm sure just like all of you here, would agree there are so many stories, right? So many stories that got us into weather. I would say the first memory I have of just recognizing, the wow factor of weather was when I was a kid, my mom was telling me, I remember driving. I remember this day so perfectly, or this moment so perfectly. It's such a simple moment, but it was so powerful to me. We're sitting in the car. I must have know, maybe I don't even know. Eight years old, nine years old. And I remember her driving, saying, Joe, look at those clouds. They were cumulus clouds. I didn't know that at the time, but nice big old cumulus clouds. And she was like, you see how that one looks like a shape that looks like this or whatever that was? And I was like, oh, yeah, that's really cool. She's like, yeah, those are my favorite. They're so cool. They look so big and powerful, and they take all these different types of shapes. And I don't know, I was so young and so out of touch because of that, that I didn't ever think of that. I never really looked up at the sky and said, wow, look at that. And that was the first moment that kind of, got me interested. And I remember in fifth grade, I'll never forget this, we went through, what do you want to be when you get older? To all my fifth grade teacher students. And I told her I wanted to be a meteorologist. And I said, one day I'm going to say, hey, Mrs. Lacey, I'm going to tell you the weather. Matt Holiner: When you wake up in the morning. Joe Morvasky: Before school, I'll make sure to shout you out. And she's like, I hope so, Joe. And, I was like, but wait, that's not all I want to do. She was like, oh, well, what else do you want to do? And I said, I want to be a professional athlete. She was like, and who doesn't have dreams and aspirations of being a professional athlete, right? Especially somebody like, guess. But I've always wanted to do it. I never thought doing both would be possible. But I guess I kind of. Joe Martucci: Mean, I can think of a couple of athletes and meteorologists. Owen Daniels, who was a tight end for, Oh, geez, I think Minnesota Vikings. Texans. That's the only one I can think of. I'm probably missing somebody you might know, Joe. Joe Morvasky: So there's one person in particular that, from what I understand, never became a meteorologist, but was always fascinated with the weather. I remember I heard this on some interview somewhere once, and I was like, wow, I like this guy even more. You probably won't even believe it. Michael Jordan, really? Michael Jordan. Now we're going to need some fact checkers on that, but I'm almost positive that that's what I heard him say from his mouth, that he loved the weather and he always wanted to be a meteorologist. And I was like, whoa, that's so cool, Michael Jordan himself. Joe Martucci: Yeah, I know. Mike Trout is a big weather guy too. Joe Morvasky: I didn't know. This is good. Joe Martucci: He's been on the Weather Channel a couple of times with Jim Cantore, talking during snowstorms and stuff, of course. Okay, so you got a nice little fraternity there, you and Michael Jordan right there. Joe Morvasky: Yeah, right. Jim Cantori is the one guy, I met Reed Timmer a couple, many years ago. Now, at this point, he was a big idol of mine. But Jim Cantore, I mean, come on, who doesn't want to meet that know out in the snow waiting for. Joe Martucci: The thunder or even some thunder. Snow. Growing up in Connecticut, it's all about the Nor'easters Joe Martucci: And that leads me into my next question here. Growing up in Connecticut, it's all about the Nor'easters and the snowstorms, baby. So are you a big snow guy and do you have any memories growing up of some big snow events? Joe Morvasky: Absolutely. I didn't even know about thunder snow until older, my older years, I don't know exactly when, but I remember being outside during a big storm and a big snowstorm and I remember exactly where I was. Just one of those moments, I remember the snow coming down so hard, this sky had this almost like a pinkish hue to it, which was interesting. And all of a sudden I heard a rumble of thunder and I was like, what is that? Like, I didn't know that was a thing at the time. I must have know middle school at that point. And sure enough, I come to find out, I think I saw Brad Field on NBC Connecticut, one of my big role models, of the NBC Connecticut World. And I sure enough, I think he spoke on NBC that evening. He was like, we had some reports of Thunderstorm. I was like, thunder snow, my world has been changed. I didn't know that was a thing. And so those of course are such incredible moments to hear thunder within a snowstorm. It's really cool and pretty unique. I'm sure you guys have heard it, although maybe not because some of you are not from the Northeast, but either way, it's pretty cool. Joe Martucci: I've heard it and it is very cool. Matt Holiner: on Halloween day, I was in Chicago and I experienced Thunder Graupel for the first time, it was not snow, almost snow, but it was actually graupel. And that was a unique experience. I feel like I'm one of the few that have had that experience. Joe Morvasky: That's cool. I actually had somebody at my job yesterday. He was like, it was hailing this morning. I was like, it wasn't to break it to you. He was like, what do you mean? Matt Holiner: There is a know. Joe Morvasky: It's our job. We got to explain it. But, yeah, it was not common. Matt Holiner: But, yeah, Graupel is a thing. You can Google it and learn all about it. How did you get involved in American ninja Warrior after graduating from college Matt Holiner: But, Joe, what I want to walk through is, let's go after you've got your meteorology degree, how things played out. So what did you do right after college? What was your meteorology experience? And then how did you get involved in American ninja Warrior? Joe Morvasky: Yeah, it's very interesting. So the condensed version of the story is, when I graduated college, I had this opportunity. I had watched American Ninja Warrior on TV, and it just so happened that somebody that I knew, knew a guy that was on the show. And this was before it was really big. It was really before it grew into the NBC giant that it is today, or at least it used to be. The ratings on TV are going down across the board. But back five years ago, six years ago, was really millions and millions of people who were watching. But before it got to that point, there was somebody on the show that I ended up meeting with, and, I asked him all about it. How can I get on the show? This is something I've loved to do. When do they film? And, I asked him everything, and he said, we usually film the spring. And I was like, okay, well, I'm graduating a semester next only because, or a semester late because I ended up switching majors. Not a lot of people know this. I switched from meteorology to secondary education. I really wanted to be a coach. I wanted to stay in that sport world, even though I was sacrificing it to be a meteorologist. And so I was like, you know what? I'm going to transition. I'm going to stick to science and math. I'm going to teach that in high school, and I'll be a coach. It'll be awesome. I'll be able to stay, in the athletic world for the rest of my life if I want to. And it was something that really got me excited. And then I had a moment where I was like, you know what? Something's not right. And I switched back. I switched back a semester later. And, ended up graduating a, semester late, and because of that, graduated in December. The filming of the show was in March, and I was lucky enough to know about it and start training for it in the summer before, just in case. And, here I am today. They love the idea of a weatherman coming in and they wanted to tease me. I know they did. Everyone had like a shtick back then and it was like, the frog man is coming out and look, he's got a silly costume. And then Captain NBC was dressed up as at the time, Captain G Four, I think it was on G Four network. And, he had a thing and other people had a thing, and the fireman and the police officer and the teacher. So they wanted a weatherman. They thought that'd be great. They thought it was going to be a novelty act. They thought they were going to just tease me and so be it. But they found out that I was a real athlete and it kind of took off from there. That was the condensed version. That's surprisingly, but that's how it all started. Sean Sublette: Yeah. So when did you actually begin to train for that, and how long did you train in anticipation? I mean, did you still have to try out and then qualify? How many hoops did you have to ultimately jump through to compete on the program? Joe Morvasky: I started training the summer before. It was probably August of, 2012. I got on the show in the spring of 2013. And honestly, it wasn't a ton of training to get where I got to because I was already a serious athlete. I had played, baseball and basketball. I tried out for the baseball team in college, and it was on the bubble to make the team. And then I realized, you know what? I have a job. I have this career that I'm really aiming for, and I'm pegging my way through college. So how am I going to do this? And so, unfortunately, I gave in to the walking away from sports. But I was always an athlete, always. Growing up. I played varsity sports in high school and like I said, college baseball for a short time and then rec sports in college. So it was really just fine tuning my athleticism to be a ninja. So I did a lot more upper body work. Like I was doing pull ups every other day in the weight in the gym. I was rock climbing a little bit. I was just trying to fine tune myself to be ready, and I did a pretty good job. It worked out. So, that's kind of how it all started there. American Ninja warrior is a sport that takes getting used to Joe Martucci: Let's talk about a little bit about how the sausage is being made during these episodes. I have watched American Ninja warrior before, but I will say I know a lot of kids are interested in American Ninja warrior, at least with the kids that I've spoken to. So when you're there, what's it like? How long are you actually there competing? Because I know it looks like a lot of different cuts on television. So what is a day of competition like? Joe Morvasky: Oh, it's rough, I'll tell you that. It's rough. It's something that really takes getting used to, and it's definitely a younger person's sport, I'll tell you that. Because the older, you know, like me, you get married, you have kids. It's a lot harder to change your sleep schedule because we film this overnight. We usually get there depending on where the location is. Let's take the Vegas finals, for example. Vegas finals. They want us there early to make sure there's no hiccups. We go over rules of the course at 07:00 p.m. Right around 07:00 p.m. Local time in Vegas, and we end up getting there. About 530 in the evening. So it's 530 until seven. We're sitting around in a tent doing nothing. From seven to eight, it's rules. And about 830 to 09:00, the competition starts at about that time. We run through the night, and we don't finish filming until about 05:00 a.m. So it's a very long 12 hours of just sitting around trying to deal with the anxiety and the stress of, having to give it your all in that one shot that you have. And it's hard also, because sometimes there are hiccups along the way where the course will malfunction, and then there's even more of a delay. And this has happened two years in a row for me, where I'm supposed to run one night, there's a course malfunction. I have to run now the next night, and the next night is reserved for stage two of the Vegas finals, and the next night after that is sometimes stage three and four, which is the final stage. So it really depends on the year. But if I get bumped from one night to the next, sometimes relief, sometimes I'm like, oh, I'm ready. I want to go know. So it's frustrating, and you kind of have to be okay. Know, changing things on the fly. And as a meteorologist, this is what I love so much, because people don't understand that you'll have your producer, in your ear saying, hey, Joe, we need 30 more seconds. And you're like, oh, my gosh, I'm on the seven day already. What am I going to do? So you just slow it down and you start to talk a little bit like this. And maybe there's a chance for some rain overnight, but we're going to have to keep an eye on the computer models, of course, because I don't know what I'm saying. I'm just filling time. And so you have to be able to adapt to anything that comes your way. And so that parallel between meteorology and sports, it's actually pretty amazing. And not to mention all the physics that I've taken and the understanding of how obstacles should work and how my body should move through the air to be able to beat these obstacles, I mean, it's all a huge advantage, and, people wouldn't normally think that. Joe Moravsky says there have been a few memorable weather moments during competitions Matt Holiner: And Joe, how many cities have you traveled to to do the show? And I'm also curious along the way, in all these travels and all these competitions, has weather ever been an issue? Has there been weather that has occurred during the course of the event that maybe had a little bit of an impact? Joe Morvasky: Absolutely. There's a few really cool moments in the St. Louis. Oh, no, it was in Colorado. I wasn't there for that one. But we actually had some snow on that course, and so they built a snowman at the top of the warp wall. That one was cool. In St. Louis for one year, we had severe thunderstorms to where we canceled the entire night. Another year in St. Louis, we, got snow, but it was like the back end of the front, so the rain had gone through, and then there was some flakes behind it, and it got bitterly cold and windy. It was terrible. But I think the most memorable was in the Vegas finals, a couple of years ago. We got rain right before we started running, and it was summertime in Vegas. You're not really getting rain. So that was kind of cool and unique. But, aside from that, there was one time Minneapolis, the Minneapolis, city qualifiers and finals. I just landed at the airport right when I landed, I got alerts on my phone for, a severe thunderstorm warning. I was like, everywhere I go, everywhere I go. And people, they look at me because I got some ninjas coming off the plane with me and like, Joe, you're supposed to be in control of. Come on. Yeah, yeah. So it is funny. Yeah. There's definitely been quite a few moments where weather, has impacted the. Absolutely. Joe Martucci: And do they ask you, has anyone said, ask you what the weather is going to be like? Who's actually making that decision to tell me about it? Joe Morvasky: You would think, right? They have their own in house meteorologist, apparently. And I've offered my advice. I've been like, hey, we got about 30 minutes, producers. Let's go. I'm up in three runners. Let's go. And sure enough, that year in Philadelphia, I got rained out. I was the next to run and there was eleven of us left, in Philadelphia, and we got rained out for the rest of the night. It was going to be three days of rain, so they canceled the shoot. The next eleven runners, the final eleven runners got sent to Minneapolis, which is where that, severe thunderstorm warning hit me right when I got off the plane. So that was a year. That was a year. Joe Martucci: Interesting. All right, well, we're going to take a break. We'll have more with Joe Moravsky on the other side of the across the sky podcast. Joe Moravsky is the Weatherman on American Ninja Warrior Joe Martucci: Welcome back, everybody, to the across the sky podcast. Hey, new episodes come out every Monday, wherever you get your podcast and on your favorite local news website. We are back with Joe Morovsky, famously, known as the Weatherman on American Ninja Warrior. We are talking all about weather, American Ninja warrior, athletes and beyond. Joe, let me ask you, know, what is your involvement with meteorology? Joe Morvasky: Know, it's really kind of sad, you know, I, we just had our first snow here in Connecticut. Was it yesterday, I think? Yeah, it was yesterday. Yeah. So you know better than I do, and I was here. But that's the point. You know what I mean? I'm very much still in love with it. But the conclusion I've come to is I'm 34 years old. I can be in my fifty s or sixty s or even 70s if I want to be a meteorologist, I can't be in my fifty s, sixty s, seventy s, competing at this level on Ninja Warrior. And so I have put everything on halt. I'm focusing on my career with Ninja, managing the gym and hopefully franchises soon. So there's a lot that I'm working on. But, yeah, meteorology is not one of them. So it is always nice and refreshing to do this, you know what I mean? To kind of get the weather weenies together. I know the general public is like, what is that? But that's what we call ourselves. Joe Martucci: No, we understand. So you're still getting excited when the snow is coming in? Joe Morvasky: Oh, absolutely. You should have seen me. I was like a kid on Christmas yesterday, I was like, it's snowing out. I made sure everyone knew I was texting everybody the best part, though, and this is always fun, me and a small group of my friends. Every so often, I'll say, snow is coming on Wednesday. For example, I said this last week. I was like, snow is coming on Wednesday. You heard it here first. And I sent it to them. And, sure enough, Wednesday morning, I got a text from them. They're like, you son of a. You were right. I was like, you better believe it. So not always right, as we know, but I nailed that one. And, I think it was a week out, so I was happy about have. I have nobody checking up on me, so it's not a big deal. I can make big claims. How much longer do you think you'll stay with America Ninja Warrior Sean Sublette: Well, Joe, back to your role right now. What is your relationship with America Ninja Warrior? I mean, are you still doing competitions? ARe you kind of advising what is your role and influence with them right now? Joe Morvasky: So we just filmed season 15. I had a really good season. Didn't hit a lot of buzzers, but felt really good. Made, it to the Vegas finals, got to our head to head showdown, which is on stage two in Vegas. It's a brand new format where we actually race somebody, and the winner goes to stage three. And in the history of American Ninja Warrior, I'm still the only person with the most amount of stage three visits. So I've been there the most out of everyone in history, which is really cool. And it helps with the confidence trying to get back there. I'm like, all right, come on. Come on, Joe. You've been there before. Let's do it again. And, it does, you know, I ended up losing my race. I ended up misplacing a bar. The bar had to go into these bear traps that were inverted, and you had to push the bar through the bear trap, and it locked in place on its way out. And I only got one side in because I'm mid race. I'm trying to really focus at a high speed, and I just missed. I'm talking by an inch. And so my season was over. But the good news is they brought me back for season 16. We filmed back to back seasons. Joe Martucci: we think it had to do. Joe Morvasky: With the writer strike. So they were getting ahead of it. So from what I'm hearing, the rumor is, and this is just a rumor, it's not confirmed that early 2024, January, February, season 16 will air, which is something we've already filmed. I can't tell you how it did. But let's just say ninja. Ah, warriors should want to keep having me back for years to come. Let's hope. It's always good, though, when I step out on the course. So, in all seriousness, they've always loved taking the weatherman back on the show, for whatever reason. Maybe it's the fact that I grew up on TV, right? I started as a 23 year old, just with a girlfriend and no kids. And ten years later, I have a new house, three, kids, a wife, a new job, and I've grown up on TV. And it's really relatable to a lot of people watching, especially the people that started watching what, you know, they get to see the guy from Connecticut that turned, into, a ninja superstar. So it's really cool. Matt Holiner: And going off of that, how much longer do you think you're going to keep competing and keep at it before you make that career transition back to meteorology, maybe. How much longer do you think you're going to stay with Ninja Warrior? Joe Morvasky: That's the question, man. If you asked me that two years ago, I'd say this is it. Because the COVID season was really hard on me, I got disqualified, because my wife caught COVID while we were at the Vegas finals. I can relive that, man. I can't tell you how awful that felt. Like I was ready to run. I was 19 people away from stepping on the stage. One course in Vegas, which, by the way, is outdoors and we're vaccinated, and blah, blah, blah, blah. I can go on. And. But. And we got tested, and I was negative that night for COVID. But because my wife is a close contact, I got disqualified from the competition, and I did mentally retire that year. I retired that night. I made the decision. I was like, this is how it's going to end. This is how it was meant to end. And, the more I sat on that thought, the more okay I became with never winning, because I hadn't ever won at this point and still haven't. Maybe season 16, but we don't know yet. And so I had let it go. I let the dream go. I was like, it's okay. It's okay to not achieve your dreams. You did so much, and it's okay. But just something came across me in that time of reflection, the months later, and I just realized, you know what? I can't. How often do people walk away at their peak? I can't. I still have more to give. And there's so many people that rely on seeing me out there, rely on me for motivation, inspiration, never giving up. Right? And I've touched too many people's lives, and I've heard too many people's stories about how I have to walk away. And I've learned that it's not just about me at this point anymore. I do it for people that look up to me and want to see me back, for whatever their reason is. And so that's powerful enough to keep me going, among all the other things. So I'll be back. And I continue to take, it one year at a time, but I don't see myself walking away in the next two or three years. I got time left, and I'm ready to commit to it. Joe Martucci: Joe, kind of following up on that. Do you hear from aspiring meteorologists on American Ninja warrior Joe Martucci: do you hear from aspiring meteorologists throughout your years on American Ninja warrior? Matt Holiner: Do you do school visits? Joe Martucci: What's your relationship like with younger people who are interested in whether as a career, but are still in school? Joe Morvasky: Yeah. So I definitely had a lot of people reach out to me. Twitter, Instagram. Twitter is a really great place where people have reached out, especially meteorologists. I don't know what it is about, us meteorologists and Twitter, but, yeah, a lot of people have reached out there. I think, on that last, podcast, that I was on, I think they found me through, Twitter, as, I mean, I've. I've done school visits and know slideshows and wife school at other schools. And, I've even had the really cool opportunity to meet Al Roker a few times on the Today show and be on his morning show there. So that was fun. That was a lot of fun. It's been a few years since that, but I told Al was like, hey, we got to get you on the course. He was like, okay, no way. But, yeah, it comes with a job. I'm always going to have people reaching out, whether they're meteorologists, meteorology wannabes, or actual, ah, meteorologists, or just kids interested in the weather. I've had them all reach out, and it's really cool. It's really cool to be able to reach, so many people. Joe Martucci: I did a little Facebook sleuthing on your public page here. I saw you went to Long Beach Island, over the summer. Joe Morvasky: Yes. Joe Martucci: What'd you? Joe Morvasky: It. You know, it just so happened Taylor Swift was there at the same. Joe Martucci: Time. Joe Morvasky: Guess who got to meet her? Not me. Not me. Joe Martucci: I was going to say she got to meet you, right? Matt Holiner: It'd be the other. Joe Morvasky: Oh, please. I wish, man. What? It's her. And, Kelsey. Joe Martucci: Yes. Travis Kelsey. Joe Morvasky: Yeah, Travis Kelsey. They're together now. The whole world knows that. But yeah, Taylor Swift was down there. But beside from that, Long Beach Island is beautiful. I mean, it's close enough to Connecticut where it's not like driving. We went to Myrtle Beach, South Carolina a couple of years ago. That was a drive, let me. But it was beautiful. Yeah, Long Beach Island, we loved it. And we'll probably go back. I know my dad is already interested, so maybe we'll see you out there. Joe Martucci: let me know. We'll get you in the studio. We can do a live weather video for you. Yeah, we can go live, do whatever you want. We appreciate you taking the time to talk with us. Maybe after Season 16 airs Joe Martucci: Joe, anything else you want to end with here before we wrap it up? This has been a great, half hour with you. Joe Morvasky: Yeah, I mean, I'm just so thankful for these opportunities and, to keep my foot in the meteorology door. It's always been a passion of mine to just be in the weather community and to be involved in weather in some way. And whether I'm doing it all the time or not doesn't mean I don't love it. So this means a lot to me. It's fun to meet other fellow meteorologists. And, I'll see you on the next podcast. Joe Martucci: Absolutely, yeah. We'd love to have you back. Maybe after Season 16 airs. Joe Morvasky: Let's hope it's a good one. Joe Martucci: Well, we're rooting for you, Joe. We really appreciate you taking your time to chat with us and, we'd love to have you again soon, but thanks again for the time. Joe Morvasky: Thank you, Joe. Thanks, Matt. Thanks, Sean. Sean Sublette: Thanks for repping so well, man. Joe Morvasky: Appreciate it. Matt says weather plays a big role in American Ninja Warrior competitions Joe Martucci: And we are back here. So, guys, as I'm listening to this, I hear him talking about those storms in Connecticut, talking about fronts. He's just like one of us. It's just you see him on, know, a couple times a year competing on American Ninja warrior. It's, just really cool to have him on it is really. Sean Sublette: Go ahead, go ahead. Matt Holiner: No, I was going to say, I. Also like how he can't escape the weather. He had the rain delay in Philadelphia, then he said, oh. So then they decide to move it to Minneapolis and got the severe thunderstorm warning there. So it's hard for him to escape the weather in these events because they do occur outside. So there is an element, the weather does impact him in his game. Even when he's not actively working as a meteorologist. The weather is having an impact and people are teasing about it and asking him questions about it. So, the weather continues to follow him and knows he's a meteorologist. Sean Sublette: Yeah. And to that end, almost all of their competitions are recorded at night, which I think is also important. If you're training, you're going to be training a different way if you have to perform outside in the daylight, especially in spring, summer, fall, the sun is up and it's different than if you're out there at nighttime. And to say nothing of they record well into the night. Not like, oh, we're done at 930 or ten. They go well past midnight recording some of this stuff. So that's an additional stress on the body, just being up when it is not accustomed to being up. And the fact that he is still doing this. Very impressive. Matt Holiner: Yeah, I didn't realize that either that I figured. You do see that it's filmed at night, but I kind of said, oh, just during the evening hours. I wasn't thinking, in my mind for some of those people. Yes, some of them, they start in the evening, but they're going all night. So some of them are doing this. Three in the morning, four in the morning, which just makes it even harder again, especially if you're trying to live a normal life most of the time. But when you do the competition, to be up at those hours. Yeah. It just makes it more difficult. So it makes it more impressive that he's done as well as he has. Joe Martucci: I like what you said earlier, Matt, about breaking the mold. Right. Not too many athletes that are meteorologists. I was going to ask you guys, did you guys do sports in high school or college? Matt Holiner: Oh, definitely not college. Joe Martucci: Everybody's. Matt Holiner: I did middle school golf team. But then again, my talent level wasn't good enough for the high school golf team, so I switched over to band. Another nerdy thing. Sean Sublette: Just a bunch of pickup soccer and intramural softball. That's about as exciting as it got for me. Joe Martucci: But I think, aren't you a. Sean Sublette: Disc golf guy, Sean, my son, is really the big disc golf guy, and he's got me into doing it and he's had to show me how to hold the discs the right way. The right way to kind of move your body so you have control of the discs. But that's fun. But I wouldn't call that high stress exercise. Joe Martucci: It's a lot of walking. Sean Sublette: It is a lot of walking. Joe Martucci: Got to walk around walking. That ain't nothing. Next week, we're going to do Bob Dylan in the weather Joe Martucci: All right, so we have plenty of more episodes coming up. Of course. Coming up next week, we're going to do Bob Dylan in the weather. Now, Bob Dylan was not a meteorologist, but he did write a lot of songs about the weather. And we actually have, Dr. Alan Roebach, who was one of my professors at Rutgers, come on the podcast. Because, guys, he actually did his thesis about Bob Dylan and the weather, which, when we were in school, we used to just kind of be like, that's pretty incredible. Maybe a little different. But it's going to come to be a real surprise when he talks about this, because he has a lot to say about this. He might be Bob Dylan's biggest fan. Sean Sublette: Well, I think. Wasn't Bob Dylan the guy who wrote, you don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind is blowing? Wasn't that Dylan? Joe Martucci: I'm not sure. Sean Sublette: I think it was Dylan. I'd have to go Google it. But, I mean, Dylan has written a lot of stuff with these weather undertones, so, I'm not surprised. But I'm looking forward to hearing what, Alan has to say and a. Matt Holiner: Quick shout out, like, the reason we actually came up with this idea. Gosh, I think it's now coming up on almost a year when we did our top ten weather songs. Sean Sublette: Has it been a year now? Matt Holiner: I think it's almost been. You're going to have to go back in our podcast history. Scroll back. But we did an episode, the top ten weather songs, and we talked about Bob Dylan on there. And then Joe said, oh, my professor did his whole thesis on Bob Dylan and the weather. And it's like, you know what? He might be a good one to bring on. And so we're finally getting around to it. Joe Martucci: That was our November 28, 2022 episode. Group: Wow, almost a year. Yeah. Joe Martucci: top ten weather songs we, did. That was with Terry Lipshetz, who's our, producer here, our podcast producer for not just us, but all of our Lee Enterprises Weather, podcasts that we do. We're, also going to do ten things to know about weather that's coming up the 18 December. And then at the end, we will do our year in review. So we do have, course, more things coming up. And, we'll make it even better as we go into the new year, which is rapidly approaching. Believe, it or not. I can't believe. Sean Sublette: And I did just Google it. Yes. You don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows. That's Dylan. Joe Martucci: That is true. But if you need to forecast which way the wind blows, well, I mean. Sean Sublette: A compass to know which way the wind blows. That's all you need. You don't need me. Just need a compass. Joe Martucci: Well, I'm, trying to give us some credit here. I'm trying to give us some credit. I'm saying, if you need a wind forecast, that's where you come with us. We got it there. If, you have a question, you can leave one for us at 609-272-7099 609-272-7099 you can also email podcasts@lee.net so for Matt Holiner in Chicagoland, Sean Sublette in Richmond, and Kirsten, who couldn't be with us, but she is saying hello from Tulsa, Oklahoma, I'm meteorologist Joe Martucci, and we'll see you next Monday on the across the Sky Podcast.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Yes, the planet is getting warmer. But what's happening in the United States specifically and what will the impacts be? The newly released Fifth National Climate Assessment is the most comprehensive report yet on how climate change is impacting the country. Dr. Jeremy Hoffman, the lead author of the Southeast chapter, joins the podcast this week to give an overview of the assessment. What is different about this report from previous ones? How do current and future impacts vary across different regions, industries, and social classes? Dr. Hoffman also discusses why there is reason for optimism as we move forward with tackling climate change. We want to hear from you! Have a question for the meteorologists? Call 609-272-7099 and leave a message. You might hear your question and get an answer on a future episode! You can also email questions or comments to podcasts@lee.net. About the Across the Sky podcast The weekly weather podcast is hosted on a rotation by the Lee Weather team: Matt Holiner of Lee Enterprises' Midwest group in Chicago, Kirsten Lang of the Tulsa World in Oklahoma, Joe Martucci of the Press of Atlantic City, N.J., and Sean Sublette of the Richmond Times-Dispatch in Virginia. Episode transcript Note: The following transcript was created by Headliner and may contain misspellings and other inaccuracies as it was generated automatically: Southeast Braces for Rising Seas Sean Sublet welcomes climate scientist Jeremy Hoffman to Lee Enterprises Weather podcast Sean Sublette: Hello once again, everybody. I'm, meteorologist Sean Sublette. And welcome to Across the Sky, our national Lee Enterprises Weather podcast. Lee Enterprises has print and digital news operations in more than 70 locations across the country, including in my home base in Richmond, Virginia. I'm joined by meteorologist colleagues Matt Holiner in Chicago, Joe Martucci at the New Jersey Shore, Kirsten Lang this week is on assignment. Our guest this week is climate scientist Jeremy Hoffman. Jeremy got his PhD in geology with a focus in Paleo climatology at Oregon State University. And importantly, he is the lead author of the new Southeast chapter of the Fifth National Climate Assessment, which just came out this week. After several years here in Richmond at the Science Museum of Virginia, he is now working with Groundwork USA, a network of local organizations devoted to transforming the natural and built environment of low resource communities across the country. So we have got a lot to get to, with Jeremy in this episode. Guys, one of the things that I think was really good for us to point out was that we're hit with so many reports, right? This report comes out. This report comes out. We see this headline, that headline. This one is different. This one really focuses on specific sectors and impacts to all the regions of the United States. And Matt, you and I were talking, so many people were involved to get some good, what we call consensus opinions. Right? Matt Holiner: Yeah. This reminds me very much, if you haven't listened to our episode with Neil deGrasse Tyson, a great listen, but we talk about this with him, or he brought it up, how you want scientific consensus, you don't want the one person who has this one, probably that's not how science works. You want something that's been worked on and been looked at by a lot of people. And a lot of people worked on this report, and some of the most respected scientists in the country worked on this report. So this wasn't a report done by one person. And it's not just a few page report. It's very detailed, lots of people working on it to reach a consensus on what's happening, a scientific consensus. This isn't just an opinion, this is based on fact, and a lot of hours and a lot of people will put effort into it. Joe Martucci: Yeah, and you could check that out at NCA 2023. Globalchange. Gov. That's NcaTwenty. Globalchange. Gov. Yes. Usually when a number of people are saying the same thing, that is usually meaning that there is power behind this. What is in the report is factually correct, at least to the best of their abilities here. And this all goes into what I say a lot of times when it comes to climate change, let's just get the elephant out of the room. It is a big topic, that does get heated here. But the way to think about this is there are facts and forecasts about our climate changing world, and then there's what to do or not to do about it. And that's where your beliefs come in. There is a difference between what our beliefs are and then what is actually happening. So, as we learn here in the podcast, this is talking about the facts and the forecast part of it. What is actually the thoughts of the researchers in terms of what to do or not to do about it is not in this. That's for now, Congress and our elected, officials to decide on. And he talks about that in the podcast, so I'm looking forward to it. Sean Sublette: Yeah, he gets into a lot of that. They kind of outline some policy ideas, but didn't say we need to X, Y or Z. So without further ado, let's get right to Jeremy Hoffman, who's the lead chapter offer of the Southeast chapter of the National Climate Assessment. The fifth National Climate Assessment has been several years in the making Sean Sublette: Jeremy, thanks for joining us. This has been a labor of love, I'm sure. the fifth national climate assessment is literally years in the making. Talk a little bit about the genesis of the NCA national climate assessment. This isn't just another report that's out there, right? I mean, this is a congressional act, right? Hundreds of scientists are working on this. Jeremy Hoffman: Yeah. So, first of all, thanks so much, Sean, and your team, for inviting me to be a part of the discussion today. You're absolutely right. I mean, this has been a, ah, report that's several years in the making. First and foremost, the national climate Assessment itself is a congressionally mandated, production of the US government, of the US GCRP, or the US, Global Change Research program and the NCA Five, really began, back in the end of 2019 when the Federal Steering Committee that would be kind of running the show and pushing the report forward was established. And then by the middle part of 2020 or so, that's when the, lead authors were selected based on a public nomination process. so I was informed of my selection as the, chapter lead for the Southeast chapter, at that time, as well as, getting to know my coordinating lead author, Steve McDulty, who's the director of the Southeast, Region Forest Service. Steve, amazing career, has worked on basically every climate assessment, since they began, so he had been working on climate assessments since before I was born. So it was really great to have somebody with such experience helping me, get to know the climate assessment process. And so, by 2021, by the end of 2020, we had our chapter author team selected and established, and so then basically for the last two years, since that time, we've been doing, different drafts of the content of the fifth national climate Assessment. This has included an outline phase or the zero order draft. In early 2021, we got some, public feedback at that time, which was really great. We had, public engagement workshops that had visitors from all over the different, regions. We had, stakeholder, engagements as part of that process. And so we emerged with a really, kind, of bottom up outline of what the Southeast, the stakeholders and public and residents of the Southeast were really interested in and concerned about. SO Then there was a multiple iterative process, 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th drafts, which, I believe the fourth order draft, went through, or the third order draft went through the National Academy's peer review process, as well as another public review, the Southeast chapter. We had, almost 100 public comments about our chapter draft, reflecting on the content and kind of pieces that might have been missing, as well as National Academy's review, which was three pages of a nearly line by Line review. And so, yes, this report is, the integrated effort of over 700 people, academics, professionals, climate, and resilience communicators. I mean, it is. The sheer number of people involved in the production of this from the NCA team side of things is immense. And then you think about the thousands and thousands of residents of this country that provided public review to the draft. This is not some flash in the pan kind of report. The state of climate impact and risk, science for the United States, that will be the kind of science of record that people can come back to again and again as they confront the risks of climate change in their communities, for at least the next five years, until the NCA six comes out. So, yes, it was a massive undertaking. It was such an incredible experience professionally, and I'm just so thrilled about the way that it's been rolled out to such public fanfare, around the country. Sean Sublette: Wonderful. Before I let the other guys jump in, I want to start at the very top. I mean, from what I've been able to tell, because I haven't gone through all of it yet. It's massive. It's kind of a reinforcement of things that we largely knew if we're paying attention. Right. but are there a couple of things that have come out in this version, NCA Five, that really stand out as bigger changes or more emphatic compared to NCA Four, whether it's in the Southeast or any part of the United States? Is there anything that really jumped out at you as a scientist? Jeremy Hoffman: Well, first of all, I think virtually across all of the regional chapters and even the sector specific chapters, almost without exception, virtually every way that we understand that climate change is happening has just gotten stronger, since NCA Four. Whether that be patterns, and trends in annual temperatures or our warm nights, indicators of heavy precipitation, indicators of rising sea levels. All of those things that we use as our indicators of climate change is happening now in the United States, virtually without exception, have all gotten more robust. So, as far as the framing around kind of content that's already been covered for the multiple other NCAs, this report very much focuses on, the fact that quite literally, how much more all of these things continue to intensify are entirely related to the choices that we make today. The human element about the uncertainty of what happens in the future, is really, particularly centered across all of the different chapters. So we're talking about, very much that what happens now has a direct correlation to what happens in the future. And depending on the level of global warming that we, experience and allow to happen, dictates the future intensity of the, climate indicators that we have already, seen change. Now, some of the particular things that I think, ah, are particularly noteworthy in the Southeast. I think the most alarming result is related to sea, level change. Sea level is going up, globally, because land based ice in the Polar Regions is melting and adding that water that was frozen into big, giant ice sheets that water is melting and going into the ocean. That raises, global sea levels. Also, most of the energy being trapped by the intensified greenhouse gas effect is being absorbed by the oceans. So the oceans are warming up. This is a really fascinating bit about water, is that as it warms up, it expands. You, can do this experiment at home, boiling water on your stove at home. You see that as it warms up, it's actually starting to take up a greater volume, over time. So we have those two things going on globally. But then when you look at the localized things, that can then further amplify global sea level rise that's happening throughout the Southeast, and really creating, a fairly, urgent need to confront these rising sea levels because we actually have a faster relative sea level rise throughout the Southeast. That drives our future projections to be much higher than the global average expectation. So things like excessive groundwater, know, in coastal, you know, Norfolk, Virginia has the highest rate of sealable rise on the entire east coast of North America, due to localized groundwater extraction, as well as things like the relaxation of the Earth's crust following the end of the last Ice Age. So this connects to things happening tens of thousands of years ago. But also there are localized oceanographic, changes that are ongoing that further amplify sea, level trends that we have in the Southeast. Now, what does this mean long term? By 2050, which pretty much a lot of the future climate projections that are seen in the report focus on more near term changes. So 2050 or so, sea level rise of 2ft is expected at a kind of intermediate to high range scenario, which seems to match the trends that we have detected already. So when we think about the amount of people that are moving under the coastline, the amount of things that we're building along the coast, the threats of a changing sea level, really become apparent through intensified amount of flooding related to hurricanes, to storm surges, even just sunny day or nuisance flooding going up, taking up more time, disrupting people's day to day lives on the coast. And we know that these flooding conditions disproportionately affect those without the resources in order to prepare for them. And that's what I would say is another aspect of this report that is centered throughout, the report in sectors and regional, chapters is that there is a disproportionate impact of climate change on poorer communities and communities of color that experience the challenges of climate change, first and worst, whether that's through their health impacts or to their livelihoods. This is a real theme across the report that you will see, ah, very much, highlighted across both sectors and regions. So I'd say, there are a few other things we can talk about for sure, but when it comes to the Southeast sea level rise and throughout the whole country and throughout the report, this focus on disproportionate impact, is really something that is a big change from NCA four with. Joe Martucci: Everything you said, right? Who is actually taking this information, making actions upon it? I know you said it's congressionally mandated. I don't know if you said this during the broadcast or just before, while we were off air. But who's taking this information? And what are the actionable steps that have been done based on previous climate assessments? Like, is this something that is actually being put to use in the United States? Jeremy Hoffman: So I find that, if you look up the citations for, the NCA, four chapters, they appear in all manner of different capacities, whether it's just public awareness. So, this kind of coverage, news coverage, making its way into the public realm, though, refining and defining new questions related to climate change impacts. So it further drives the research that is, working to illuminate more detailed, information, around climate change. But yes, we do see this making its way into decision making. And the biggest point about the national climate assessment is for it to be, policy relevant, but not policy prescriptive. So what's really great about these national climate assessments is that it is meant to just provide the information that can then shape those decision makers, plans for the future. I've seen it, make its way into, coastal resilience plans. I've seen the information and citations to previous reports, make its way into nonprofit community group kinds of presentations, whether it's, advocating for things like improved transit, or more shade in their neighborhoods. These sorts of documents, again, really find their way into a variety of different conversations, that I think just work to, establish a normalized set of data that we can use in those sorts of, discussions. And I think, it's been really amazing, the variety of different ways, that these reports have been, utilized. And I think that NCA Five, because of its real focus on finding ways to communicate with groups that maybe weren't aware that the national climate assessment exists. I am really excited to see it used, for other, endeavors, maybe more aligned with the humanities or social sciences, and understanding more about things like mental health and well-being where a hazard showed up, in the past. So, there's a variety of different things, from concrete climate related policy to, just improving the way that individuals and communities can talk about climate change in their own backyards. Climate change is causing drought and flooding in the United States Matt Holiner: And, Jeremy, I think one of the things that's, confusing for folks is when we're talking about climate change, we're talking about how drought is becoming more intense and occurring more often, and flooding is becoming more intense and occurring more often. And so then people are like, well, which one is going to win? Is drought going to win? Or is flooding going to win? And I think it's going to somewhat depend on where you are in the world about what is more likely. But when you're just looking at the United States, is there anything we could say by region about who is likely to suffer more from drought and who is likely to suffer more from flooding? Jeremy Hoffman: So the kind of traditional wisdom in the climate size community is that you get this pattern of the dry gets drier and the wet gets wetter. So, by. And the country itself tends to be divided about halfway between what's dry to the west and what's wet to the east. And we've seen that playing out, in the, precipitation related indicators of climate change anyway, the Southeast and the Northeast experiencing the more, robust changes to the intensity and duration and frequency of extreme precipitation. Changes to the annual amount of precipitation tends to be in those places that were already kind of wetter climates to begin with. And so when we look into the future, the more, clear patterns related to, extreme precipitation tend to fall along those same lines, where the Southeast and the Northeast continue to see this kind of increased, the duration and frequency of extreme precipitation events, overall. Now, on the flip side of that, we do see that in the Southwest, the projections of Dryness, become really, pretty substantial. The paleo, climate evidence suggests that we're already in an unprecedented amount of dryness and drought in that region and into the future. As the atmosphere becomes more thirsty, the soil is going to become more thirsty, driving these sorts of, additionally intense, trends, to, more drier and drought prone conditions. Now, when you start to zoom in on any one particular place, now we know how complicated rainfall is, we know how complicated drought is. But by and large, we can kind of think of this as being the dry parts of the country are going to continue to feel that dryness, and for every increased additional 10th of a degree from global warming, that gets more intense. And those places that see, extreme precipitation in the present and experience more annual precipitation in the present, that will continue to get, more acute, as, global warming continues as well. Sean Sublette: Jeremy, this is all so deep. We want to do get into a few more specifics. We will do that after we take a quick break. Every increment of global warming directly affects local impacts Sean Sublette: You're listening to the across the sky podcast, and we're back with climate scientist Jeremy Hoffman on the across the Sky podcast. He's the lead chapter author of the Southeast chapter of, the Fifth National Climate Assessment. So many times, Jeremy, we hear about tipping points and I worry that people are going to wake know they expect something a year from now and the country looks like that movie the day after tomorrow. It's really not that way. Can you talk through how this kind of works? In, other words, how does every 10th of a degree matter kind of walk through that a little bit? Jeremy Hoffman: Regarding impacts, first and foremost is like, while there's increasing amount of knowledge and a lot of open questions about these tipping points, it's much more, about what the long term, trajectory of our emissions pathways are and how that directly relates to the intensity of global warming. Because the intensity, the total amount of global warming that we experience then translates into how much more frequent does that, totally, unpredictable heat wave become, how much more rain is falling in that really intense rainfall event. And that's because the physical constraints of the atmosphere in many ways, and then how that cascades down into the really important impacts on people like, the design incentives that we use for stormwater or the, exposure of an outdoor worker to the extreme heat wave. So let me try and break that down a little bit. And the best example of this is the clausiest cleperon relation, the physical constraint of the atmosphere that, for every nominal increase in the temperature, there is about a seven. For every degree Celsius of warming in the atmosphere, that generally relates to about a 7% increase in the humidity content. So if you break that down into even smaller chunks, you can see how over every single increment of warming then is related to a corresponding and in Some cases accelerating amount of, additional water vapor that's in the air that then can be squeezed out like a bigger sponge over the same area that it affected before. And so what that means is for every degree of, warming, we have a corresponding increase of vapor. That means potentially a corresponding increase in rainfall, which we then have to deal with in our infrastructure, which was in many ways designed decades ago for a climate that no longer exists and will continually get further and further away as global warming continues. So we think about more rainfall affecting the storm sewers that were built in some places centuries ago. They, can't keep up with that rainfall. So that means a direct relationship between increments of warming to unprepared infrastructure and impact on humans in their day to day lives. So when we talk about this kind of like increments of global warming and how every increment matters, that's what we're talking about. We're talking about how the incremental warming relates to then the incremental, impact damage, suffering, and other outcomes that relate to human, experience of living in this country and definitely around the world. So, while again, there is an increase of knowledge and interest in these tipping points, what we have to recognize is those incremental increases in their direct relationship to the cost of our food, the amount of, infrastructure that we have to update, and the impact on our health systems when a more intense and frequent heat wave, happens. So, yeah, I appreciate that question, because I think it really is. People have to understand that link between a 10th of a degree and the hundreds of dollars that that might mean for their bottom line. Matt Holiner: And, Jeremy, as we work through this part, I kind of want to come in and focus on agriculture, because, boy, some of the people that are most vocal, about the impacts that they're seeing from climate change already are the farmers, whether they're dealing with drought or flooding, either one, they don't want to see. And also the changing of the frost and freeze times. And when should they plant their crops and when should they harvest their crops? Are there any developments in this, assessment as far as agriculture goes and the outlook across the country? Jeremy Hoffman: Well, absolutely. There is both an agriculture specific chapter, which I encourage people to go and read. Joe Martucci: Ah. Jeremy Hoffman: NCA 2023, Globalchange.gov. and there is also, agriculture finds its way into just about every regional chapter. For example, in the Southeast, we talk a lot about the unpredictability of rainfall. That tends to be the case around the country, where we have these rapidly changing conditions from very dry to very wet, or from very wet to very dry. And so what they do is to establish not only what the historical change has been, but what does that mean by the end of this century, 2070 to 2100, which I'll remind you, children born today will be alive in this time period that we tend to think about as very removed from direct human experience. My niece will be living in the Midwest as this occurs in the future. Anyway, these precipitation extreme changes become more acute the more global warming occurs. So, again, it's like, as we allow these larger increments and additional increments of global change to, occur, this directly relates to then, the unpredictability of these, precipitation events. Now, one of my favorite kinds of stories, from the Midwest and farmers, is that the majority of America's pumpkins come from the Midwest. I grew up in Illinois, in. So, you know, the pumpkin harvest in Southern Illinois, south central Illinois, is something that I got to see with my own eyes, and how, the direct relationship between precipitation extremes and the harvest of pumpkins threatens then the experience of having pumpkin pie, for Thanksgiving. So we think about, the relationship between, the importance of, having, reliable, and place based understanding of how these things will relate to, agricultural communities. Really underscores, the importance of the NCAA Five. Now for another example is, and you mentioned these changing freeze dates. You can think about the first time that a freeze occurs, which is kind of what we're waiting for, at this time of year, when will it dip below 32 or 28, for the first time, and then the last frost of the season occurring sometime between March and May, depending on where you live. And this really has a huge effect, especially in the Southeast, on fruits. So, everybody remembers the Georgia peach, and so peaches need a particular amount of frost, and cold days, in order to fruit successfully and flower successfully the following spring. And if the, freeze dates, this last freeze date tends to be moving earlier into the spring on average, that has a direct relationship then to the robustness of those flowers that then turn into the peaches should a weather event like a late season frost occur. So the, long term change of this last freeze date superimposed on still the weather events like late season frosts still occurring, put these really delicate and temperature, sensitive crops, at increasing risk. And that relates to, the agricultural community's economies. Place based and specific kinds of crop based economies are really feeling this uncertainty in both rainfall and, temperature trends overall. And when I think about, how that relates to a variety of our crops that, produce foods that I love to eat, including pumpkin pie, including peaches, it really becomes clear that climate change impacts on the US are really climate, change impacts at the grocery store. Joe Martucci: Yeah, you're making me think of, with the freeze dates changing and the frost dates changing. I've done some stories, here in New Jersey about how farmers are a little, definitely more uneasy going into the early spring, because while on average we're getting warmer, especially with those nights, it still only takes just one late freeze to really knock things out. They might be growing earlier, but then they get knocked out because of a freeze that happens in early May, let's just say. Also, I just want to throw this out. Know, I've done a podcast before, with Gary Pavlis. He's a wine expert here in New Jersey and talking about how the winery industry has actually flourished in New Jersey. Because you're able to grow those grapes further north in the state where it was one time, just in Cape May in New Jersey. Now it's gone further to the north. So it's just interesting how you, bringing in all the agricultural stuff. We'll get this podcast home here as a 365 view, 365 degree view of this. The National Climate Assessment is completely free and open to the public Joe Martucci: What are you most proud of the work that you and your team has done? And what do you hope that the American public can get out of this as we go forward into the next couple of years ahead? Jeremy Hoffman: Well, I think some of the most important information in the NCA Five is not related to the scientific observations of a changing climate. It's actually the focus on what an opportunity we have to completely and totally transform our energy system, which has immediate health related benefits for everyone in the country, but particularly those communities that are disproportionately exposed to things like air pollution. there's also the huge offset of future costs to things like our energy grid or our transportation infrastructure if we invest in it now, which means jobs, it means vitality for our local communities, it means new industries like you just mentioned, the wine industry moving further north. I mean, the transformation that our economy could harness through preparation and mitigation of future climate change, is just huge. And so how that relates to a more just and equitable, future for our country is something that finds its way throughout, the chapters, and the report writ large. And I think the most hopeful bit, to me is that everything that we've just talked about, as far as what the future means, is in our hands. Everything that's in this report about the future, everything is related to how we decide to move forward. Do we drastically and dramatically reduce the amount of heat trapping gases going into the atmosphere, driving global climate change, or do we delay, and wait and see, or not transform as quickly as we could, not realize all those benefits, not realize all that economic growth, all that, transformation of how, our country works, it's entirely in our hands. And I think I actually walk away from this report being proud of how hopeful it can be interpreted to be, and just what an opportunity we have, in order to adapt, to mitigate and build resilience, equitably for the changes in the future. now, I would say that also one of the proud moments, is just the breadth of content that we've been able to produce, from the equity focused, kind of outcomes to indigenous knowledge being, incorporated throughout, our chapter, and a focus towards the near term impacts of climate change. I'm really just proud of it all and hopeful, for what's possible in the future. Sean Sublette: Jeremy, this is so amazing. I appreciate your time, I appreciate your work. Let, people know where they can find the national climate assessment and that it's not some big document on a shelf somewhere. And where can people find out more about what you were doing right now, especially with Groundwork USA. Jeremy Hoffman: Yeah. So thanks, Sean. First and foremost, the national climate assessment is completely free, totally open, and ready for you to go read it. It's at NCA 200:23 Globalchange. Gov. And included on that, is a really interesting, interactive, data Atlas that you can go in and explore in a web based map platform what the future holds for your community at the county level. So go and look at the future precipitation, go and look at the future hot days. And involve yourself in this report, because if it is your report, it is our, scientific knowledge. Explore it. Now. There's also a series of webinars that will be coming up over the next few months and throughout 2024. So you can go to just globalchange.gov and look at the events page for NCA five related webinars. And lastly, my organization, the organization that I work with, Groundwork USA, Groundworkusa.org. We're an affiliated network of 21 place based environmental justice nonprofits that work to transform underutilized contaminated land in cities across the United States into green community assets that prepare our communities for the changes in climate that they're already experiencing while looking at the past and the history of those communities, to empower them to advance more equitable investments in climate resilience. So check us out. Get involved in your local community organization. And thanks again for the invitation. It's been a pleasure, Jeremy. Sean Sublette: It's been great having you again. Jeremy Hoffman is lead author of the Fifth National Climate Assessment Sean Sublette: Jeremy Hoffman, our guest on the across the Sky podcast. Lead chapter or chapter Lead, Excuse me, of the Southeast chapter, of the Fifth National Climate Assessment. Stay with us. We'll be back with more on the across the Sky podcast. Guys, that is a lot to digest for sure, but I've known Jeremy for a while and he is as thorough as anybody as I have ever met on this topic. One of the things that I really like, the way he kind of lays this out, is that, the decisions we make now will impact those for generations to come, including those of us with kids and hopefully one day grandkids. So there's a lot of opportunity here there's a lot of hemming and hawing about this or that, but there is opportunity. You know, I've talked to Catherine Hayhoe, who is also a climate scientist, and it's important to, as bad as some of this information can be to take in, we already have room for some optimism. Coal is already on the decline, especially domestically. So there's a lot of room for optimism going forward and a lot of opportunity to make things better in the years to come. Matt Holiner: Yeah, I did like how he used the word that he's hopeful for this because it's easy, and I've mentioned this multiple times when we've discussed climate change, it's easy to just focus on the negative and how bad things are and how we're just a mess and we're not getting anything accomplished. But this, assessment, this report is an accomplishment. We're coming out every five years. In the last five years, we've seen already what's happening because of climate change, the increasing number of billion dollar weather disasters. So we're already getting a clearer picture of what impact climate change is having. We're seeing it already, so it becomes easier to get a clearer picture of how things are going to progress in the future. We're getting a better understanding, starting to notices some differences, even region by region, in the US. So we're getting a better and better understanding of the science and what the impacts will be and the climate models are improving. And so we have a clear picture of what's going to happen and the impacts that are going to happen. And so because of that, we're getting, I think, more motivation. When you have more details and you have more information on this subject, more people can act on it. And that's still the missing part. We're making progress. Our amount of carbon dioxide emissions is dropping in the US. It just needs to drop faster if we want to avoid the worst impacts of climate change. And we're starting to get a clearer picture of what those worst impacts are. And I think this assessment, with so many people working on it, is a good resource for people who are still unsure exactly how is this going to play out. Just go to this report, it'll answer your questions and give you some ideas of what we really need to do to take action. That's the thing. Like take this report seriously and let's start making more progress. We're making progress, but let's make more progress. And this is a good starting point. Joe Martucci: And you know what, too, when it comes to a lot of the projections with climate change the next couple of decades are already baked in, everything between now and about 2050 or so. It's pretty much going to happen, here. So as he said during the podcast, our grandkids, our kids, I hope I'm alive in 2100. We're going to see. I would be 109 by then. I got a shot. But it's really that 2050 to 2100 time frame where these projections, are in a position where they can be altered depending on what kind of action or inaction we take, as a society. Sean Sublette: Yeah, so a lot of deep stuff to get into this week. But having said that, we should dial it back a little bit. Right, Joe? Let's do some stuff that's fun in the next couple of podcasts. Let's get on that. Talk to me, buddy. You got a palace Jersey that we need to talk to. Joe Martucci: Totally. Well, we're going to talk to somebody who's not far away from me in New Jersey. He is in Connecticut. We're talking with Joe Moravsky. Now, if that name sounds familiar to you, that's because he's on American Ninja Warrior. He's been on American Ninja Warrior for a long time on the hit NBC show. But he is also a meteorologist. That is why they call him the Weatherman. It's not just because they said, oh, that's a cool nickname. It's because he actually is a meteorologist. So we're having him on talk about, his love for weather and his time on the show here. That's going to be coming up on the 27 November here. And then on December the fourth, we're going to have one of my old Rutgers professors. So we have a lot of, we'll say mid Atlantic flair. The next couple of weeks. We have Dr. Alan Robock. He is professor, at Rutgers University, has produced a lot about climate, by the way, I should add. But he's going to talk to us about Bob Dylan in the weather because believe it or not, you can do a PhD thesis on Bob Dylan in the weather. And he did just that. So we're going to have, him to talk about that. Then as we get closer, to the end of the New Year, we have an episode, for you on December 18, ten things to know about winter. If you recall, our ten things to know about fall got a little contentious. We'll see what happens for the winter one. And then we're going to have our annual year in review that will come out sometime between Christmas and New Year's here. That's what we have going on, on the across the Sky podcast. If you want to chime in, you certainly can. We've got a couple of emails. We even got one phone call. But you can email us at podcast@lee.net that's podcast@lee.net and then in terms of giving us a call, if you really want to talk with us here, you can call us at 609-272-7099 yes, we. Sean Sublette: Used to call those voicemails back in the day, didn't we? Joe Martucci: yes, we did. Yes, voicemails. And also, when the hashtag was the pound sign. Sean Sublette: Oh, yes. Hashtag was the pound sign. The good old days. All right. With that, we will wrap it up for this week. Thank you so much, for joining us on the across the Sky Podcast. Have a great Thanksgiving. If you're listening to this before. Yeah, absolutely. So for Matt Holiner in Chicago, Joe Martucci at the Jersey Shore, Kirsten Lang on assignment this week. I'm, meteorologist Sean Sublette in Richmond. Thanks again for joining us, and we will talk with you next time.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Making science easy to understand and relatable has always been a challenge, but in the world of social media and misinformation, it's become even more difficult. Few people know this better than popular astrophysicist Neil deGrasse Tyson. In a break from our usual focus on weather, Tyson joins the podcast this week to discuss the state of science communication in the 21st century. Why does misinformation spread so easily and what can be done to combat it? How can we improve science education? Tyson also shares the words he thinks are most misunderstood, what they really mean, and some alternatives to use instead. Tyson is the Director of the Hayden Planetarium at the American Museum of Natural History in New York and host of the StarTalk podcast. He's hosted numerous science programs including "Nova ScienceNow" and "Cosmos: A Spacetime Odyssey," and has made appearances as himself in programs such as "Family Guy" and "The Simpsons." We want to hear from you! Have a question for the meteorologists? Call 609-272-7099 and leave a message. You might hear your question and get an answer on a future episode! You can also email questions or comments to podcasts@lee.net. About the Across the Sky podcast The weekly weather podcast is hosted on a rotation by the Lee Weather team: Matt Holiner of Lee Enterprises' Midwest group in Chicago, Kirsten Lang of the Tulsa World in Oklahoma, Joe Martucci of the Press of Atlantic City, N.J., and Sean Sublette of the Richmond Times-Dispatch in Virginia. Episode transcript Note: The following transcript was created by Headliner and may contain misspellings and other inaccuracies as it was generated automatically: Sean Sublette: Hello, everyone. I'm, meteorologist Sean Sublette. And welcome to Across the Sky, our national Lee Enterprises Weather podcast. Lee Enterprises has print and digital operations at more than 70 locations across the country, including my home base here in Richmond, Virginia. I'm joined by my colleagues from Scross the Sky, Matt Holiner in Chicago, Joe Martucci at the New Jersey Shore. Kirsten Lang is on assignment this week. Our special guest this week is Neil DeGrasse Tyson. Formally, he is the director of the Hayden Planetarium at the American Museum of Natural History in New York City. He has numerous books, television specials, and he hosts a podcast, Star Talk, where science and pop culture collide. And he's one of the most popular science communicators in the country today. His, most recent book is called To Infinity and Beyond: A Journey of Cosmic Discovery. I had a chance to talk with him just before he went out on a speaking tour of the East Coast. And fellas, I got to tell you that I got to sit down with him for about half an hour, and it was absolutely tremendous. You see some of the work that these folks do in popular culture and media, and you think, if you get a chance to talk to them, are they going to be that genuine? And, dude, absolutely was. He was just a joy to talk with. Joe, what did you kind of see? Joe Martucci: Well, I kind of took away the excitement that you had while you were interviewing him, Sean, that was tremendous. I know this was, a really special moment for you, recording, this on your birthday, no less. Happy Birthday, Sean, was. Sean Sublette: Thank you. Joe Martucci: But as somebody who has been to the Hayden Planetarium a number of times in New York City, and just the connection he has with there, of course, it's, very special to have him on and haven't really talked about some Earth and space, of course, but more the broader picture of society today and how he's contributing to the progression of society as the human race. Matt Holiner: Yeah, he really is just great to listen to. Just an excellent communicator. And it just so happens that he wants to communicate science. So that's really what's different about this podcast. Just a heads up. We're not going to just talk about weather on this episode. We really dive into all aspects of science communication and how it's become more challenging now because there's so many voices now, and how do people sort through all the information that's out there and really find the good information? So I really like how he dives into that. It's just an excellent conversation. Sean Sublette: Yeah, we really started off by talking about the importance of scientific literacy, and as you're going to be a consumer of information, what to be mindful of and what to be on the lookout for. So, without further ado, let's get right to our interview with Neil deGrasse Tyson. The importance of scientific literacy and scientific communication in an era of disinformation Sean Sublette: You do so much of this outreach, and it's extraordinary. So I want to talk about the importance of that outreach. specifically the importance of scientific literacy and scientific communication. In an era of disinformation, you work tirelessly to get the solid scientific information out there. There's so much bad information, whether it's disinformation or, know, the change in slash X and Facebook, they're always changing algorithms. So, my first question to you, thinking about cosmic perspectives, as we do, how concerned are you about scientific literacy, both domestically and internationally, and what can any or all of us do to strengthen it? Neil deGrasse Tyson: Yeah, I mean, in a free country, science illiteracy is. Anyone has the right to be illiterate, scientifically illiterate. No one's going to chase after you and pin you down to a table and force feed you science. Of course, in every state, you're required to go to school through some age, but, it's not clear how much science is required in the minimum educational portfolio of each state. But most people do graduate high school. Okay, so we can ask the question, what's going on in the science classroom in the high school? Is it what it needs to be to preempt what we see rampant across society? And apparently it's not enough or it's not the right ingredients. And so I've thought quite a bit about consider. You know, there's this song by Alice Cooper. I don't know, the title of the song maybe just called Schools Out. And the line goes, schools out for the summer. Schools out. an. It's anthemic, right? It's like, school is done and I'm done with school, and I'm going to celebrate that with a rock song. And so no one seems to be asking what's going on in school so that you would celebrate not having to go to school when your only job is to learn. That's an OD state we find ourselves in. And I don't want to blame the student, all right, we've all toiled through classes, but if your only job is to learn, maybe that can be made joyous. Maybe the curiosity necessary to learn, to learn on your own is what school needs to impart in all of its students, so that when you get out of school, you say, I'm sad school is over. But I now will continue to learn on my own because I've been inculcated with a. That's not a good word. I have been infused with, a curiosity about all that I still have yet to learn. Okay, that's a foundational comment about the school system. More specifically about science. We're taught science in these fat books with words that are bold faced that you're supposed to memorize for the exam, and then you move on. And I don't remember science being taught as a means of querying nature. Science is a tool to probe what you do not yet know. And the scientific method, which whoever can remember how to recite it, the recitation and the words used are not very informative. Test hypothesis. No, that's not what the scientific method is. I will tell you what the scientific method is. It is do whatever it takes to not fool yourself into thinking something is true that is not. Or that something is not true that is. That's what the scientific method is. Top to bottom, left to right, front to back. And if it means we can't trust our senses, bring out a chart recorder or bring out some other methods. If it means you're biased, get someone else to check your bias. If you have a hidden bias within you that you don't even see yourself, what are some of the. And, if you're susceptible to thinking something is true just because it feels good, get someone else for whom their feelings are not invested in it being true and get their view on it and compare it with yours. These are ways for the checks and balances of what it is you declare to be true. What I have found is a lot of the misinformation is peddled, shall I use that word? By charismatic people who will tell you, on a YouTube channel or whatever is their platform. I'm telling you the truth. But the big establishment wants to suppress it because they don't want you to know it. Apparently. That's irresistible. It's irresistible for truth telling. It's irresistible for product marketing. All right, I have this new device that will bypass all of these decades of marketing that's gone on with Big Pharma, big business, big government, and I am your advocate. Oh, my gosh. We're all in. When someone appeals in that way, advertisers know this because they know that you will respond more readily to a testimony of another human being than you will to a bar chart or a pie chart, which might encapsulate all the information you need to know about the integrity of the product, but that's insufficient. Get one person saying, this was the best thing I'd ever seen, and say, wow, I want that. So there's a missing dimension to our educational training. Much of it is rooted in our knowledge, understanding, and awareness of probability and statistics. Can you read the weight loss data and find out that 90% of the people do not have the result of the person who's testifying? Did you read that? Did you look at that? If you want to know where you're likely to fall in the data, go take a look. No, you don't want to fall there. You want to be with the successful person. So our inability to think statistically confounds our ability to think sensibly and rationally about data and without understanding what the scientific method is, especially with regard to our bias, implicit or explicit bias, known or unknown bias. It leaves adults susceptible for all the behavior we see on the Internet and especially in social media. So I'm taking the hard, easy answer to you and saying it's the educational system that, if it were properly wired, would preempt so much of what we see in conduct in adulthood. That's a very long answer to your question. But you asked a very loaded question there. Sean Sublette: Well, there's a lot going on there. I'm absolutely of the same mind that there is a lot of money to be made in a capitalistic society and selling something, selling information that people already want to believe. So I'm absolutely of the same mind there. And we see that, all the time. Neil deGrasse Tyson: I want to add one other thing I meant to include. So there's the charismatic person who's telling you they have the answer and others don't. There's also the lone expert. Okay, the person. And we saw this during COVID There's some MDs who are just right. That is not mainstream medicine. This is fringe medicine talking. And so they'll have their pedigree on the screen. MD, Stanford, Harvard, whatever these name. Impressive places. And then you're going to say, well, that's what I want to think is true anyway. It resonates with where I'm coming from. So I'm going to go with them, and I'm going to tell people, I'm listening to an expert. What people are not realizing is that scientific, objective truths are not established by lone wolves. They're established by repeated measurements, observations of, a declared result. And only when the repeated measurements verify it is that result. Anything that can be brought into the world of objective truths until that happens. It is fringe for some reason. Forces were operating to get the public to think that mainstream equals bad for some reason. Cutting through the disinformation in science Neil deGrasse Tyson: When mainstream is exactly what progresses science, it is precisely how it works, and mainstream is not. Oh, let's just all agree and be stubborn about it. No, mainstream is. These are experiments that repeatedly give us approximately or precisely the same result. We're going with it and we're moving on to the next problem, where you will see us fight about what's true and what's not on the frontier. but until then, no. And by the way, the researchers are faceless entities. The people who verify their research, you don't know who they are, they don't have YouTube channels. And so there's this charismatic person speaking on their own YouTube channel, and there's this vaguely rooted result you hear. It sounds vague. Well, some research has found that this is what's actually going on. Here's what you should do. No, I'm listening to this person. And so that's just to round out what it is you were trying to get across there. Sean Sublette: No, I tell people that in meteorology, before the computers got so good in these last 20 years, the best forecast is a consensus forecast. You take ten meteorologists, they look at the data, you take the average of all, they say over time, that's going to be the forecast that ends up correct. There will always be this occasional outlier, for sure, but in the longer term, that's where the money is to be made. Neil deGrasse Tyson: Right? And by the way, the word consensus, I think, officially means opinion. And so that consensus of opinion is actually redundant. But when we use the word consensus for science, these aren't opinions being expressed. These are the results of scientific experiments that are being reported by scientists. It's not simply their opinion that. No, it may come across that way. You say, well, what's the best medical opinion? Right. Opinions are, get a second opinion. All right? Usually when you ask for a second opinion, it's because you didn't like the first answer and you're going to keep doctor hopping until you find an answer you like, and then you're going to say, that's the diagnosis, which is itself a confirmation bias, which is the most pernicious among the biases. I wish we had a different word, but we have to use it. Scientific consensus is the alignment of research outcomes, not the alignment of whimsical opinions held by scientists themselves. Sean Sublette: Well, talk about word usage for a minute, because we know there are certain words we use in the scientific community that have very different connotations in the general public. The first one that comes to mind is theory. When we say a scientific theory, that's pretty close to being effect, as opposed to some kind of wishy washy thing that a lot of, the general public sees, that's kind of hypothesis. We're nowhere near that yet. Are there some words Neil deGrasse Tyson avoids in communication about science? Sean Sublette: Are there some words that you've kind of run up against and you've kind of just decided to avoid in communication? Neil deGrasse Tyson: Tons. Oh, yeah. So, I mean, if you're going to communicate, if you're going to call yourself an educator communicator, then you've got to sift through your entire lexicon, see what works, see what doesn't, see what. Now, I am fortunate. My expertise is in a field where our lexicon is highly transparent, so that I spend much less time defining words for someone than would normally occur with other professions. Jupiter has a big red spot on its atmosphere. We call it Jupiter's red spot. Right. The sun has spots. They're officially called sun spots. Right. So I don't have to then define what a sunspot is. I can just use the term and keep talking about them. So just make that clear with regard to theory. What I've done is because, it's very hard to change the public's understanding of a word. If that word has usage outside of your field, that will persist no matter how you define it for them. So theory is one of those words. So someone at home will know, I have a theory that my, so that's how they're using the word theory. You can't knock on every door and tell people to use the word differently. So I use the word theory only for established theories that are already in place. Einstein's general theory of relativity, special freely, evolutionary, theory, this sort of thing. And when people say, oh, well, if it's just a theory, that's, of course, the buzz phrase, I say, no, a theory is the highest level of understanding we have of the universe. It is not the lowest level. The lowest level would be a hypothesis. So if someone says, well, if I have a theory that, no, I say, Einstein had a theory, you have a hypothesis awaiting testing, and then people chuckle at that. So no one is then, distracted by it. So the word hypothesis is very helpful in this regard. Just tell people they have a hypothesis. If it's not yet tested, it's a hypothesis. If it's tested and it organizes ideas and it gives us insights into future discoveries, it is elevated to the level of theory. So I will say that if the conversation goes there. But if I'm just a few sentences and sound bites on the evening news, I will not use the term at all, by the way, nor will I use the word fact. A fact is that word is fraught. It's fraught because it is a fact that, if I remember the quotes correctly, it's a fact that President Trump said you could use bleach to cure COVID or whoever. It is a fact that they said it. That doesn't mean it works. So there's plenty of facts out there that reference things that are not true. So, like I said, the word fact is fraught. It is a fact that Andrew Wakefield published a paper declaring a, connection between MmR M M. vaccine and the m m measles, mumps, rubella vaccine and autism. There's a fact that he published a paper exploring that connection. That doesn't mean that's a connection. So it is a fact that mothers reported that after their kids were vaccinated, they showed, symptoms of autism. Okay? That doesn't make it a cause and effect correlation. So I don't. I never use the word fact ever. The word does not work to that point. Sean Sublette: Are there other words that you were able to use in your external communications 1520 years ago? You just throw your hands up like, I can't use that word anymore. It's lost its meaning in the general conversation. I've got to think of something else now. Neil deGrasse Tyson: Yeah, of course. No, it's not an aha moment. It's a continual assessment and measurement of the stock value of words as they are used, come in and out of use as their definitions shift, as cultural, social, religious, political mores shift. You can't just declare that no one wants to learn. Or how come, they don't do their homework. Then you're not being an educator. Sorry. You're not being a communicator. Yeah, you are. You're being the professor talking to the chalkboard while you write down your equations. And without any concern whether people are either paying attention or meeting you 90% of the way there. You can't claim yourself to be a communicator unless you turn around, face the audience, and meet them 90% of the way towards wherever their brain wiring is. This happens all the time. I also find that humor enables people to smile while they're learning, and then they come back for more. But the landscape of humor has changed, as you surely know, over the years and especially over the recent decades. Certain things that were funny in 2000 are not funny today because our sensitivities have been realigned or arisen, or maybe the sensitivities were always there, but there was no platform, to position them. So, yes, plenty of words. Happens all the time. Sean Sublette: All right, so let's step back a little bit and we talk about. Neil deGrasse Tyson: Here's a good example. I wrote about this in the late 90s. So this is 25 years, in the can right now of, course in science, in a measurement, we speak of measurement errors. And so the public wants to know what is the answer? And they don't really have much way to embrace measurement errors. It doesn't really work unless we retrain everyone in school. Sean Sublette: I don't think box and whisker plots test, very well, do they? Neil deGrasse Tyson: Exactly. So what happens is I saw a news account of, a research paper that described the result, and it said, oh, but, it didn't catch on because the paper had a lot of errors in it. I said, what does that even mean? And then I realized the paper talked about the measurement errors, and the journalists thought that this meant it had errors. And so I've never used the word error unless it's a literal error. So I changed error to uncertainty. I wrote an essay called Certain Uncertainties, where I talked about, when you measure something, there's uncertainties around those measurements. And I don't even use the word margin of error, which is still used when they report political voting results. That's a start. Margin of error plus or, -3% that came in, in the last 20 years. That's very good. It's a start. But error is the wrong word because they are not errors. Even though we use that term, uncertainty still works. That still has scientific validity, and you don't have to define it for the public. They know what an uncertainty is. And you can say some measured, quantities are more uncertain than others. That is a completely understandable sentence. What would happen if the sun instantly went away? Sean Sublette: All right, before I cut you loose, I do have a couple of more tangible science questions. Neil deGrasse Tyson: Sorry I haven't given you a chance to ask. No, this is two questions so far. Sean Sublette: This is just extraordinary. And I'm happy to have you here and talk about these things. So I was reading the book and. Neil deGrasse Tyson: Which book? Sean Sublette: The most recent one. To infinity and beyond. Neil deGrasse Tyson: Yes. Just came out two months ago. Sean Sublette: So, speed of light, of course, we know the speed of light, and it takes eight minutes for sunlight to get to Earth. Neil deGrasse Tyson: About that. Yeah. Sean Sublette: Right. One of the things that I have trouble thinking about, and this is one of these cosmic query type things, sun instantly goes away. We wouldn't know about it for eight minutes. Neil deGrasse Tyson: That's correct. We'd still orbit, we'd still feel sunlight, we'd still feel gravity. Sean Sublette: That's exactly what I wanted to ask. Does the gravitational information also take eight minutes? Does the Earth still act as if it is going in orbit around the sun, or is that gravitational force instantly gone? Neil deGrasse Tyson: Yeah. So, there's a slight, subtle difference here. In Einsteinian description of gravity, gravity is the curvature of spacetime. Okay? So we are orbiting in this curved spacetime continuum caused by the sun. And the dimples in a rubber sheet get you most of the way to understand that. Where we are sort of, spiraling, orbiting, in the dimple. Okay. So if you instantly take away the sun, that is a change in the gravitational field. And changes in the gravitational field move at the speed of light. So it would take eight minutes for you to even know that the sun's gravitational field was no longer operating on Earth, and we would instantly fly off at a tangent if that were the case. I mean, after the eight minutes. Eight minutes and 20 seconds, if you want to be precise. Sean Sublette: Right. Neil deGrasse Tyson: And, Einstein demonstrated that gravity would move at the same as the speed of light. Sean Sublette: All right, excellent. Neil deGrasse Tyson explains his speaking tour and what to expect Sean Sublette: Last thing before I let you go, talk a little bit about this speaking tour. I've seen it advertised at different theaters slightly different ways. Is it going to be very different at each place, or is this kind of all tying back to, to infinity and beyond, or what can people kind of expect? Neil deGrasse Tyson: So thanks for noticing that. So, my speaking tour is hardly ever bordering on never related to books that I've just published. The speaking tour is I get invited by a city, and many cities across the country, fascinatingly, have this sort of old grand Dam theater from 100 years ago, that if there's municipal funds, typically there are or business interests, they fix it up and what do you call it? Renovate. And they fix up the molding and the statues and the gilding. And so it's beautiful spaces. And these are back when going to a theater, you would dress up to go to see movies in the movie theater. So many of them come from that era. So many towns have such theaters, and they remain in active use. I get invited to a city to present, and so I'm, honored and flattered. I give them a list of twelve to 15 possible topics that they choose from, and then they tell me, we want you to come talk on this subject. And that's what I do. So for Richmond, they picked the topic that I've given them. Cosmic collisions. Oh, my gosh. Cosmic things that go bump in the night. There's so many things that collide. Stars collide, galaxies collide, black holes collide. Asteroids collide with Earth. We collided with an asteroid recently to try to deflect it. So it's everything that's going on in the universe. This idea that, oh, we live in a static, beautiful. No, the universe is a shooting gallery. And so I'm there to talk about how much of a shooting gallery it is. And yes, I have some videos, slides, and it's mostly me talking, but that's what Richmond is getting. There are other topics, I think I've been in this venue before. Other topics that either they didn't choose because I was there a couple of years ago or not would be the search for life in the universe. And that's continually being updated with the congressional hearings on aliens and all of this. That's a whole topic, search for life in the universe. One of my favorites is an astrophysicist goes to the movies, and that's where I highlight all manner of scenes, not just from Sci-Fi films, but other films you would never imagine cared about science. Yet there's science in it, either done very well or done very badly. And I highlight that. And that was so popular. There's a sequel to it called an astrophysicist goes to the movies. The sequel, anyhow, that's just a smattering of the topics. And typically there's a book that I written recently, and if the theater is interested, they might task a local, indie publisher to sell them in the lobby. But most of the time, that's not what happens. And if they do, it has nothing to do with the talk. In other words, when I go on, quote, tour, I'm, not trying to sell you anything. I'm a servant of your appetite, of your cosmic appetite, as declared by the host for whatever it's their judgment of the audience's interest. Sean Sublette: Excellent. Sean Sublette: Well, I've got the book. It's wonderful. And personally, thank you for, as a meteorologist, thank you for starting with the atmosphere in the book. Neil deGrasse Tyson: Oh, we did. Thanks for noticing that we start. Sean Sublette: Oh, I noticed that right away. Neil deGrasse Tyson: Yeah, there's a whole discussion of the atmosphere, because the book, to infinity and beyond, by the way, it's a beautiful book. I would say that even if I was not co-author of it, I co-wrote it with our longtime senior, producer for Startalk my podcast. This is a collaboration between Star Talk and National Geographic books. And so the book is, they don't know how to make an ugly book. This is National Geographic, so it's highly illustrated. And it's an exploration of what it was like standing flat footed on Earth, looking up. And what did it take for us to ascend from Earth to the stars and know we go from Icarus? That's a nice first story to tell. And Icarus dies. And you say to yourself, well, oh, I'm not going to try to fly. Or you're going to say, well, let me maybe design the wings differently of a different material rather than wax. Okay. And of course, they thought that temperature would get higher as you ascended the atmosphere, when, of course, the exact opposite is the case. And so it's fun to explore what was imagined to be sort of infinitely far away in the history of this quest. We would then conquer it. Let me use a less militaristic word. We would then achieve those goals, and then we're standing in a new place now. We are now in balloons, and we can say, well, how do we fly with not a balloon. Now we have airplanes, and how do we fly out of the atmosphere? We have rockets. How do we fly beyond? How do we fly to the moon? How do we fly beyond the moon? Well, we can't do that yet, but we can send our robotic emissaries. How do we go beyond those? Well, then our mind takes us there. All right. And so part of this quest, the whole book chronicles and storytells this quest, which is quite, the noblest thing. Our species did it, and no one other, species comes close to even wondering that this could be something we could do. So I got to hand it to humans, to making this work in that way. So, yeah, that book only just came out two months ago and very proud of it, and it's a very beautiful. And the DNA of my podcast, Star Talk, is science, pop culture, and humor. I mentioned humor earlier. The pop culture part is you show up at the door with a pop culture scaffold that I already know, because that's the definition of pop culture. It's a common knowledge. I don't have to say who Beyoncé is or what a football field looks like. There's certain fundamentals that are out there. We take the science and clad it onto that scaffold so that you already care about something, and now you care about it more because I've added more information for you to celebrate about the thing this pop culture thing you cared about. Point is, in this book, we do that continually. If there's a Hollywood movie that touches some of the topics that we address, this is like the scenery along the way of the book. I dip into the movie and we talk about how well the movie did or didn't, portray that physics. Sean Sublette: Wonderful. Dr. Tyson, I know you've got to get going, so thank you so much for your time. Shout out to Chuck, nice and all the team there at Star Talk. Love the work, love what he brings to it as well. And when you have the guest, my. Neil deGrasse Tyson: Comedian, my co-host, comedian or foil. Sean Sublette: But, it's wonderful. Thank you so much. Looking forward to seeing you, when you're down here in Richmond next week. And travel safe, sir. Neil deGrasse Tyson: Excellent. Thank you for those well wishes. Neil deGrasse Tyson says you have to reach people where they are Sean Sublette: And guys. I was just absolutely in my element talking with him about science and how to communicate science, and the things you want to do, as he said, to reach people where they are. I let my daughter know I was doing this and she really emphasized this point that he made is that you have to meet people 90% of where they are already. Don't turn your back and write on a chalkboard. Look at people, be with people, understand where they are to make that connection with them. That is so key in this day and Age. Joe Martucci: I agree with that 100%. I think I might even said on this podcast, when it comes to weather forecast, you Have, I don't kNow, maybe two dozen places to get a weather forecast from at any given point in time, at any point in day. So what differentiates you from those other 24 people? Well, accuracy is going to have something to do with it, but a lot of times it has to do with the connection that you have with the community. Now, there's downsides to that. as Neil deGrasse Tyson spoke about, you have some people who are very personable, but who might not know what they're talking about. But when you have somebody who knows what they're talking about is in the community or meeting with the people where they are, that is where you have the best results. And that's why you have people like Neil deGrasse Tyson, who's widely respected and acclaimed not only because he knows what he's talking about, but because he's doing it in a way where you can listen and say, hey, yeah, I know what he's talking about. Hey, I Know What She's Talking About. Joe Martucci: So, great job, Sean, with the podcast. Matt Holiner: yeah, there's just a lot to unpack mean, I wish we could have kept the conversation going. I wish we all could have been in there and asked questions. We could have chatted with him for hours. But obviously a very busy guy and does not have the time for, you know, I think what really highlighted for me the challenge that we're facing these days is he went through words that are difficult to use these days and have double meanings. He talked about how he doesn't even like to use the word fact. He Said the word does NOt work, fact. And that kind of blew my mind. It's like, gosh, we don't even know what facts are because he says it's a fact that somebody said this, but it's not a fact that what they said is true. And it's like, gosh, that's a good point. So even the meaning of the word fact is difficult. And how I liked also how he used, if something hasn't been tested yet, what you're saying is a hypothesis. It's not a theory. He talked about, oh, I have a theory about this. It's like, no, you have a hypothesis because you haven't tested it yet. If it's been tested, then you can call it a theory. So just talking about that and the word error, he mentioned that as well. How if you use the word error, people might say, oh, well, then this paper is just garbage because it's full of errors. Like, no, those were measurement errors. It's talking about uncertainty. It wasn't an error itself. So he's very cautious about the word error and only using the word error when a true error was made. So, gosh, we have to be so careful about the wording because it can be misconstrued and misunderstood so easily. Gosh, him just going through those different words just shows you what a challenge it is today, how you have to be so careful about the wording and is all about the wording and being very explicit and explaining things in detail. Otherwise it'll get totally misunderstood. Sean Sublette: It takes a lot of work because certain words have different connotations. And like you said, you're not going to go in, knock on people's doors and go, no, you're using that word wrong. You're not going to do that. Right. So this is why you kind of have to take opportunities as they come to redirect, what you want to get out of a word or a meaning like that. It's like when we talk about weather, we talk about severe weather. In meteorology, we're talking about something very specific. We're talking about damaging winds that are generally more than 58 miles an hour. We're talking about a tornado. But to a lot of the general public, severe weather is just bad. That's just bad weather, right? So language is always changing, and as he said, it's always evolving. It's not like, well, we just kind of watch how the lexicon changes. Some terms just don't mean what they used to. Humor is changing through time, so it is always a process. And I think that's one of the things that anybody who's trying to communicate science needs to be aware of. And he does a great job with the humor as Well. I try to do it with humor. sometimes I'm a little more successful, than others, but it was certainly just a great podcast. I'm very grateful for him, to spend some time with us. Coming up on the Across the Sky podcast: American Ninja Warrior, Bob Dylan and more! Sean Sublette: Joe. We've got a couple other more interesting things coming up, down the pike, right? Joe Martucci: Oh, yeah, we sure do. So coming up on the, Monday after Thanksgiving, this is October. Excuse me. November 22. Oh, my gosh. Doing it all wrong. Let's try it again. November 27. There we go. Third time is a charm. We are going to have Joe Morovsky from American Ninja Warrior Come on the podcast. Joe, is also known as the Weatherman on American Ninja Warrior. Yes, he is a meteorologist, and yes, we are going to talk to him about the weather and his time on the NBC hit show. Then on December the fourth, we actually have one of my college professors, Dr. Alan Robock. Now he courses a meteorologist, but he's also a very big Bob Dylan fan. In fact, he's such a Bob Dylan fan that he did his PhD thesis on Bob Dylan and the Weather. so that is really interesting. And then we also have an episode for you on December 18. That's going to be ten things to know about winter. And then sometime in that week, between Christmas and New Year's, we're going to have our year in review. So the train keeps on rolling here at the across the Sky podcast team. we've gotten a couple of emails of feedback over the past days and weeks, and we certainly appreciate that. And you certainly can continue to send that to Podcast@Lee.net that's Podcast@Lee.net. Or feeling like it and want to give us a call. You certainly can at 609-272-7099. 609-272-7099 Back to you, Sean. Sean Sublette: All right, good stuff all around. Anything else, Matt? Are you good, man? Matt Holiner: I'm still letting that interview wash over me. Man. I, think the other thing he know, a lot of times, a lot of the people that are spreading misinformation are very charismatic, and so that's why they're catchy and people latch onto them. But it's like, well, you know what? We need charismatic people to be spreading good information. He is the prime example. We need more Neil deGrasse Tysons in the world to spread good information and be charismatic. Sean Sublette: Yeah. No argument with that for me. All right, gentlemen, thank you very much. And Joe Martucci and Matt Holiner. And in absentia, Kirsten Lang in Tulsa, thanks for joining us. A week on the across the Sky Podcast. I'm meteorologist Sean sublet in Richmond, Virginia. Have a great week, and we will see you next time.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Severe weather situations can be stressful events, especially to some of the most vulnerable individuals in our communities including the elderly. Older individuals may not be aware of severe conditions or have the means to seek shelter, so having a plan and support system could make the difference when it comes to life and death situations. On this week's episode, Dr. Lauren Southerland joins the podcast to explain why hazardous weather like heat, wildfire smoke and hurricanes often takes a greater toll on senior citizens. She also discusses what you can do to help keep your loved ones safe and what societal changes should be made to deal with an aging population and climate change. Dr. Southerland is an emergency medicine physician at Ohio State University's Wexner Medical Center and clinical associate professor of emergency medicine at the Ohio State University College of Medicine. Southerland, who is passionate about helping older adults maintain healthy, independent lives, specializes in geriatric emergency medicine. We want to hear from you! Have a question for the meteorologists? Call 609-272-7099 and leave a message. You might hear your question and get an answer on a future episode! You can also email questions or comments to podcasts@lee.net. About the Across the Sky podcast The weekly weather podcast is hosted on a rotation by the Lee Weather team: Matt Holiner of Lee Enterprises' Midwest group in Chicago, Kirsten Lang of the Tulsa World in Oklahoma, Joe Martucci of the Press of Atlantic City, N.J., and Sean Sublette of the Richmond Times-Dispatch in Virginia. Episode transcript Note: The following transcript was created by Headliner and may contain misspellings and other inaccuracies as it was generated automatically: Weathering the Storm: Senior Safety in Severe Weather Across the sky podcast features experts on hurricane preparedness for senior citizens Joe Martucci: Welcome, everybody, to another episode of the across the sky podcast. We Enterprise's National Weather Podcast. I am Meteorologist Joe Martucci, based here in New Jersey. We have Sean Sublette over at the Richmond Times Dispatch. We have Matt Holiner, based in Chicagoland, and Kirsten Lang over in Tulsa. For this week's episode, we are talking about see preparedness when it comes to our senior residents and our listeners here on the across the sky podcast, we have Dr. Lauren Sutherland from the got to Remember to Z, Ohio State University to talk about this very topic. This is something I've actually done a story on in the past in regards to Superstorm Sandy in 2012 in New Jersey about how just kind of the challenges that our senior friends have when it comes to evacuating, when there are hurricane evacuations. But we get to much more than that. Dr. Lauren Sutherland discusses what types of weather older adults worry about Joe Martucci: Sean, Matt, Kirsten, what did you guys get out of this podcast, that we had with Lauren? Sean Sublette: Yeah, it was really good to hear from her what types of weather she gets most concerned about. Right. Because there's all kinds of damaging severe weather hurricane, ice storm, winter storm, tornadoes, floods. So, it was interesting because her answer surprised me, but at the same time, it kind of gave me a little reassurance that we're moving in the right direction in terms of getting the right messages across. Matt Holiner: And I think it's easy to look at the disaster preparedness, like, how do you seniors handle when you're talking about these big events, a landfalling hurricane or a major severe weather outbreak? But it's also worth noting that the other types of weather that impact seniors differently than younger adults, and we got into that talking about how seniors are more impacted by cold air outbreaks, heat waves, and air quality. We talk about that category that we often mention unhealthy for sensitive groups. Well, who's included in those sensitive groups? Older adults. And so we talk about that and why older adults are more susceptible to things like air pollution. Sean Sublette: Yeah. Kirsten Lang: And she also gives good advice for those who may have aging parents as well, and how to keep them safe during these times of events. Joe Martucci: Well said, everyone. And without further ado, we're going to present Dr. Lauren Sutherland. Dr. Lauren Sutherland specializes in geriatric emergency medicine Joe Martucci: And we are now pleased to introduce Lauren Sutherland. She has an MD as well as a, newly acquired Master's of Public Health. She's an emergency medicine physician at the Ohio State University's Wexner Medical Center and clinical Associate Professor of emergency medicine at OSU as well at the College of Medicine. She specializes in geriatric emergency medicine because she's really passionate about helping older people, maintaining healthy, independent lives and lifestyles. And her research focuses on finding strategies to continually advance this type of care. So, Dr. Sutherland, we appreciate you coming on today. Lauren Southerland: Thank you so much for having me. It's always fun to talk about my favorite topic. Joe Martucci: We're happy to have you too. we were talking off camera about we found this relevant to have you on for a few reasons. One, we find that a lot of our listening audience does skew a little bit on the older side. A lot of our senior populations listening, and we love that. We thank everybody who's listening out there, but also when it comes to disasters and emergencies and there's so much involved with it than just, hey, here's the weather forecast. It's okay. Now, what's emergency management doing? What are you doing? All those kind of things come at a crossroads. So my first question is, what actually got you interested in this topic? Lauren Southerland: So I think what got me interested in it most is my patients. So being an emergency room doctor, I've had multiple cases where people have had to be picked up by EMS and brought to the Er because of poor preparation for weather disasters. One case I remember is there was a big storm coming up, and I had a patient who was brought in because the storm knocked out electricity, and she only had enough supplemental oxygen to last 4 hours, and she was oxygen dependent. So if you're at home on home oxygen and the power goes out, you're out of luck. So we had to bring her into the hospital until the power is back on at her home. Joe Martucci: When you talk about your day to day when it comes to this topic, what are you doing? Is it more research? Are you out there in the field speaking with seniors or emergency managers? I know you're very busy. We have a lot of different titles for you. But speaking more about the geriatric emergency. Lauren Southerland: Medicine part of it, yes. So the idea of geriatric emergency medicine is that the Er was really designed for a young person in a car accident. You're perfectly healthy, you're doing fine, and then something hits your appendix ruptures or you break your arm, and then you go to the Er. We fix that acute problem, we get you back home, and you're fine. What the Er is not set up for as well is, an older adult who has a lot of different medical issues that maybe they're managing them all. Okay. But then if something hits them, it doesn't have to be a full pneumonia. It could just be a cold, or it could be a new weakness, or their dementia is worse thinning. And then trying to sort out what exactly is the problem, whether it's a new medicine that's causing them to feel bad or what's going on is very difficult in the Er. And requires a lot more attention and time than we typically kind of budget per patient. So I love my older adult patients because I find them more intellectually stimulating, friendly. It's fun to try to navigate things and through this work of trying to make the Er better for older adults, I also do a lot of work with our community services. So working with our local paramedics, columbus has, I think, 22 different EMS agencies. Every little township has their own, and some of them have social workers. There's also local community agencies that help older adults to stay happy and healthy, or even do things like line our home repairs and home health services and AIDS and things, meals on Wheels. All of those are paid for by taxes. And so I work with our Public Health Office on Aging. I work with our area agency on aging, I work with Adult Protective Services. So really, all these different agencies. And, we've talked many times about the stresses that happen on especially what we call community dwelling older adults. So older people who, maybe have been in their home for 30, 40 years, and maybe that home is a weatherproof guideline from 40 years ago and hasn't been updated. Joe Martucci: It sounds like both of my grandparents houses is what happened to here. Lauren Southerland: Yeah. Do they have good windows? I'll have to ask next time. Joe Martucci: I go over to ask them when the last time they got their windows replaced. And maybe they're Anderson windows, who knows? Why are seniors more impacted by weather than regular adults or younger adults? Matt Holiner: And Lauren just thinking about other ways that weather impacts, senior citizens. One thing that stands out to me is when we get Heat Advisories and Air Quality Alerts, particularly those air Quality alerts, there's usually a category called Unhealthy for sensitive groups. And what's included in that sensitive groups is senior citizens. So what I'm curious about is, why is it that things like the heat and when we have wildfire smoke or other pollutants in the air, why are seniors more impacted than regular adults or younger adults, I should say? Lauren Southerland: Excellent question. we could do a whole semester, on this. So, older adults, as we age, our physiology changes. And part of that is your body is constantly detecting your heart rate, your blood pressure, monitoring your fluid status, and telling your kidneys how much to pee out and how much water to retain. Older adults, kind of quickly, unless they're really focused and they're someone who's exercising every day and keeping up their protein, your muscle mass tends to slowly decline as you age. And that means you can't shiver as well. You don't build body heat as well. We think of the older ladies that always have afghans and stuff because they're frequently cold. So cold events, they can't maintain body heat as well. Heat events, they can't sweat as well. And they dehydrate more easily as we gain medical problems as we go through life. Maybe you have some high blood pressure, so your doctor puts you on a water pill to keep your blood pressure down. Then you're peeing out more than you normally would and you dehydrate extra quickly. Also, your thirst response changes with age, and your appetite does, too. So older adults often don't feel the initial urge like, oh, it's hot out. I'm so thirsty. I should start hydrating really well. I know a lot of older adults also reduce their liquid intake because they're worried about having to get up in the night and pee. I don't drink anything after four because otherwise I'm up all night peeing. Unfortunately, urinary changes also happen, and so people will deliberately restrict their water intake, not realizing how the heat is affecting them. There's a lot more, but that's something to think about right now. Yeah. As you age, your lungs become more susceptible to pollutants in the air Matt Holiner: I wanted to hit on the air quality as well. what is it as you age that we become more susceptible to the pollutants in the air as well? Lauren Southerland: So remember back in 1940 when a lot of older adults were alive and everybody smoked, and all restaurants were smoking? Restaurants. Even if you weren't a smoker, we know that that second hand smoke affected everybody. I'm the child of the 80s that I remember being picked up from school and, the other parents, everyone in the parent line had the cigarettes outside their car. It was very common. Right. So a lot of people have long term damage from smoking. Also, your just respiratory capacity, your ability to take a deep breath in, your ability to filter out bad things in your lungs, fight off infections. Imagine if you might have 100% lung capacity, but when you're 85, maybe you have 80% of your lung capacity. And then I throw some smoke in those lungs, and that puts you down to 50% lung capacity. So you just don't have as much what we call functional reserve or extra ability in your lungs to take any small hit. What the elderly can do when severe storms and tornado warnings come through Kirsten Lang: So we get, in Tulsa, some pretty severe weather, as you guys do as well, where you live. And I guess my question is, when you have severe storms and tornado warnings that come through for the elderly population, is there any advice? Because so many times they say you hear tornado warnings, you need to get to a safe space. What basement? bathroom in the middle of the house, whatever it might be. Some elderly patients aren't able to move around as easily. Is there any advice maybe that you would give to those that are in those types of situations? And I know everybody's a little different, but they're in those situations that they could do to, make themselves as safe as possible? Lauren Southerland: Oh, that's a wonderful question. So I think especially sheltering from tornadoes or severe storms, you usually think, go to the basement. Right. But many older adults are almost restricted to the first level of their houses due to mobility issues. If you're in a walker, going down a flight of stairs to the basement is going to be very difficult and dangerous for you. So a couple of things they can do is, one, figure out who their local emergency medical services, EMS agency is, and often, they will keep lists of vulnerable older adults so that they'll know if, hey, if there's a big storm, a power is knocked out, they should know who to go and check up on. But if you don't call and say, my mom lives at this address, I'm four states away, I worry about her every storm. Can you make sure she's on your list of people to check if there's a problem in that area? Not all EMS agency does, but it's worth a call. And maybe you'll encourage more to do so. Another thing that you can do is make sure that you know who your neighbors are. So if you're an older adult who, is very healthy and capable, check in with your neighbor, say, hey, let's have a little cul de sac plant so that I've got all your cell phones, I can check with you, I can help you get to a safe place if you need to. So those of us, we have to be communities, and weather affects us all as communities, and we have to make sure that we're helping each other. And if you know that you would have difficulty getting to a safe place, can you work with family and friends to develop as safe a place as possible? On the first floor, sometimes a bathroom or in a room of the house? Sean Sublette: Yeah. Extending off of that, a little bit. Those are the smaller disasters, if you will. But when we think about safety messaging for larger storms, whether that's a hurricane or maybe it's a more devastating or longer term a winter storm, are ah there some kind of messages that you wish we would be getting out as a weather community better than we are doing now when we look at these larger scale weather phenomenon that pose greater risk to older adults? Lauren Southerland: Yes. I think one of them is medication management. So letting people know, even if you're safe in your home, if electricity goes out and you have insulin that needs to stay refrigerated, or other medications that need to be refrigerated, make sure you've got a lot of ice packs in your freezer or things to keep things cool until electricity comes back on. Or if you need to travel too, imagine having enough medication and packing it all up to travel. I also think the way emergency response systems work in the US. Is we don't want to evacuate people unless we absolutely have to. That's a big burden on people. It's a big issue with traffic. It can cause more problems. So they try to predict, but weather is what it is, and they try to delay evacuation orders until they're as sure as possible that people need to leave. And so sometimes that doesn't allow time for older adults to make the preparations they should be, especially for things like medication, oxygen travel, and pets. Pets is another big one. People love their pets. And sometimes emergency shelters won't let you take cats and dogs and lizards and birds with you. So having an emergency response plan for your animals, too, can make people more comfortable with evacuation and with following emergency orders. I don't know. Do you have any pets, Sean? Sean Sublette: we have a three year old dog, half shiba inu, half husky, and, there are times she can be a handful. So I understand that that is a challenge, to be sure. Lauren Southerland: That sounds adorable. And I will have to see your dog in, like, the super doll with everybody evacuated together. you could imagine the chaos. Joe Martucci: No. Well, I know when we had, Sandy here in 2012 in New Jersey, there were some people, like, I don't want to move because of I have my pets. I don't know what to do with my pets. And I know it's not necessarily an age thing, but just in general, it's a good idea. You make a good point to, make sure you have a plan for your pets as well, because we often think of them just as a part of the family, as your brothers and sisters and parents and daughters and sons are here. So very good stuff. We're going to take a break, and then on the other side, we're going to talk to you more about this topic here with Dr. Lauren Sutherland here on the across the sky podcast. And we are back with the across the sky podcast, hosted by your Lee Weather team here. You can find new episodes every Monday wherever you get your podcasts or on your favorite news website. We are here with Dr. Lauren Sutherland from the Ohio State University. She is an emergency medicine physician here, specializing in geriatric emergency medicine. And, we were talking a little bit I was talking a little bit about Sandy in 2012. And I did a story on this last year about extreme sea level rise or extreme events caused by sea level rise, your sandies, whatever that have seen increased water levels in some of these coastal towns. A lot of people, who are seniors like to live at the shore. I want to do that one day, too, hand up. But the research that I found was that 12% of those over the age of 80 lack mobility to evacuate on their own, and 13 would be unable to hear sirens or commands from emergency personnel. And one of the chiefs of the local fire department down here had a quote talking to me about Sandy. They said, it's not that our seniors aren't intelligent enough to leave. It's just half the time they don't have a place to go because they don't have anybody left, or they can't even evacuate on their own. So just kind of going off of the numbers. And what I said there, what do you tell emergency personnel if you're speaking with them about this and what to do? Because sometimes they don't have anybody left. And not only that, if you can't hear a siren as well. You might not know, hey, a tornado is coming, or we have even a fire, right? It doesn't even have to be a weather event, per se, but any kind of these disasters that comes through, yeah. Lauren Southerland: It can be a big deal. And your sense of smell can decrease as you get older, so you might not even smell the wildfires and things as much. I remember one delightful older woman who had lived alone in her house, and her family was starting to realize that maybe great grandma wasn't doing as well as they thought. And so they were all in the Er. With me, and I asked her, man, what would she do if you smelled smoke in the house? Smoke? I don't smoke. We'll be just fine. okay, so she wouldn't be able to respond to a fire alarm or an emergency. Well, and this is about time that she needs an assisted living or some other type of care. But it's hard to make that decision as a family because obviously, we all want to stay in our own homes as long as possible. But, visual problems, too, tend to get worse as we get older. And so your ability to drive to a new place, maybe somebody is buying it into the grocery store, to their doctors or things around town, but then you're telling them to evacuate town around new routes, and that's incredibly difficult for somebody who's 85. Matt Holiner: Yeah, and that's kind of what I want to focus on, because I'm sure that the ideal situation is that younger family members are nearby and can help in these emergency situations when there's a possible evacuation needed. But, my concern is for those who are a long distance away from their older relatives, and they can't quickly get there to assist them in an emergency situation, say, a landfalling hurricane or possibility of a big, severe weather outbreak. So what recommendations do you have to help those family members who can't always be nearby and get to their older relatives quickly? What can they do to help prepare them to handle that situation and make them better prepared for a situation like that? If they can't get to them to actively help them, what are some of the things maybe they can buy or contacts, people, a different kind of person they can contact who might be able to assist? What kind of recommendations do you have for those who are farther away from the relatives that can't actively help them? Lauren Southerland: Matt, I think you just answered your own question, so, yes, you need to make a plan with them and talk through it. Talk through different scenarios with your parents. Okay. If this were to happen with tornado warning, what are you doing right now? What can I install to make it safer for you and have a separate contact so that you know not only your loved one, but also a neighbor's number or someone else in the city who is there and can stop in and check on them. It can be more difficult to navigate new situations, especially with dementia Kirsten Lang: I want to ask about even the kind of emotional or mental state of older patients, too, that may maybe have been through, some sort of emergency weather, situation, say a tornado or severe weather, some storm that came through, knocked down a tree in their yard, something like that, to where it could have emotionally scarred them. And do you notice that those elderly patients tend to hold on to those types of things a little bit more than those that are maybe younger in age? Is that something that you see that changes as we get older? Lauren Southerland: I don't have much knowledge of, honestly. My guess would be that that's a person to person issue. Some of us move on more easily. I, have four kids. One is very much like, oh, that was a piece of paper given to me by somebody in kindergarten. And it has great meaning. I'm like, do you remember the kid's name? No, this is all I have left of him. And then there's like, man, I know what that is. Let's just move on more easily. some do not. But it can be more difficult to adjust, to change. It can be more difficult to navigate new situations, especially with things like dementia. There are many different kinds of dementia, but the most common Alzheimer's dementia, the first thing you lose is what's called executive function. Executive function is your ability to weigh risk and benefits, your ability to do complicated calculations in your finances. And that's why one of the reasons why older adults are more likely to get scammed, someone says, oh, I've got this great idea for you, and we'll make tons of money together. Oh, that sounds good. You can't weigh the risks and benefits as well with more complicated situations. And so I'm certain that probably applies to disaster management, too, and weather disasters. They're thinking, this house stood through six storms already. Nothing can be thrown at me that hasn't been thrown at me before. You're shaking your head, Sean, like you've heard this from your parents'we. Sean Sublette: we hear this a when in weather and media, after every storm, ever since we begin our careers, right after college, we hear, I've never seen this before. And you hear that every time there's a storm everywhere you go, because these are unique events in someone's life, whether it's a Sandy in Jersey, whether, ah, it's a Camille in Virginia like we had in 1969. One of the issues older adults are most concerned about with weather is flooding Sean Sublette: But to expand on that point a little bit, are there particular types of weather disasters that you see kind of coming? Like in a shorter term forecast? Like, say, oh, there's a winter storm that's coming, or maybe there's a hurricane that's coming, an ice storm, a potential tornado outbreak. Are there types of events that every event has its bad in its own way, but are there particular kinds of events that are worse than others? I hate to say what's the top ten worst ones, but are there things that you see on a weather map? Or when one of us are talking about, ah, a particular kind of weather one or two days from now that really gets you overly concerned? Lauren Southerland: I think one of the ones I'm most concerned about with older adults, it is extreme storms and flooding. Because the flooding takes out transport, m, and so it makes it so much harder to get to them, to evacuate them, to help them. And as you've seen extreme storms and flooding, it can take days, months to clean things out. You can have long term damage to your homes, to the air quality of your homes from the mold and things. So a tornado comes and it's terrible, but it's almost easier to pick up the pieces afterwards. I think also the extreme heat we've been seeing, especially this past summer, where there was just weeks and weeks of extreme heat, that has to be very difficult for older adults to deal with. Sean Sublette: One of the things that we've tried to do better as a community of weather communicators is to emphasize the risks with flooding. Whether that's flash flooding along streams and creeks, or oceanside, bay flooding, coastal, flooding, because they each really cut down on transit and make it difficult for people to get where they need to go should they need to evacuate. But as you said, the tornado comes and goes, but flooding does long term damage. I want to say I'm glad to hear you say that, but it is something that I think emphasizes the work we need to do as a community to really emphasize the risk from flooding. Because flooding isn't always one of these sexier things you see on TV. Tornado is very visual, ice is very visual, snow, is very visual. Flooding as an onsense isn't necessarily a very visual thing. but of course, when it comes at night, it's especially dangerous. We have an aging population and extreme weather events are becoming more frequent Sean Sublette: So thank you for sharing that. Matt Holiner: I kind of want to look at the big picture because it seems like we're headed towards the wrong direction. Because we got two things working against us here. One, we know the weather is becoming more extreme. These extreme events are occurring more often. And two, we definitely have an aging population. Ah, that baby boomer population isn't getting any younger. And so we have a growing amount of senior citizens. So I'm thinking as we go through the next 1020 years, what do we need to work on as a society to get people better prepared? We know we can't control the weather. I mean, obviously we could work on climate change and trying to reduce for extreme events. But from a society's perspective, let's plan on the preparation. If we know that there's probably going to be more extremely weather events that we've got this aging population. What do we need to work on to prepare those older adults? Like, what should we be working on collectively as society? What do you see as the biggest issue, the biggest thing that we need to work on to be prepared for the future? Lauren Southerland: I think we are, as you said, getting a growing generation of older adults that are living longer and staying in their own homes longer. And we could have a whole nother discussion on weather disaster plans for, nursing facilities and other group home facilities. But I'm kind of focusing on the community dwelling older adults because I think that's where we as individuals can have a little more impact in our own communities. And as I said, not every EMS agency has a list of vulnerable older adults in their community. They don't even know where to go. We don't even know who's capable of getting out of their homes and evacuating and who's not. Probably not even in your own neighborhood. There's probably some neighbors you've seen like, oh, that's Betty. She looks a little weaker today. You know, her garden is not as pretty as it normally is. I think I heard she was in the hospital, but you don't really know if there was a storm, could Betty get out? Should you go check on help on her? Check on her door and help her or if she has a plan? So I think one of the great things that the National Center for EMS and other big EMS agencies is doing is trying to really up our game on disaster preparedness across the US. But it's difficult because every disaster is a new one, right? But there are some things like trying to make lists of vulnerable people. There are other things. So EMS agencies can put lockboxes on your doors where they can get in and out, but nobody else can. And so that's really helpful for older adult. So if they have to call 911 or they fall or something, then EMS can get in and get them without someone else having to be there to open up the door. Or as I've seen people drag themselves with a hip fracture across the floor to the front door to reach up and hit the lock button. We can be better about knowing who needs help and getting them the help they need. Emergency response systems. Not everybody has a cell phone. Still are. there other ways that we can communicate with people about local disaster plans and ensure that people have local disaster plans. That's hard on the national level, because so much of this needs to be community by community. What Kirsten sees in a big city like Tulsa might be different from somebody. Imagine if you're in a rural situation. You're a rural EMS agency that covers so many miles, and how are you even going to get to all the people and check up on them? I. Need, like what my dentist has. Did you know you have appointment tomorrow? respond yes. If you're aware and you have a plan. If they can text me 800 times for a dental appointment, we should be able to set up something where we can send out an alert and get a little response from people who need help. Matt Holiner: Yeah, I think it all comes back to preparation and planning and that we always talk about this when it comes to these weather events. But there's a reason, I think when you bring senior citizens into it, it's even more important to do the preparation, do the planning, so that when the emergency happens, you know what to do. You have a plan, you're prepared for it. So do the planning ahead of time to get prepared for these events. Lauren Southerland: so if everybody that listens to this calls a couple older relatives or checks on people's in the neighborhood and, make sure they have a disaster preparedness plan and a weather preparedness plan, we've done a good thing today in New Jersey. Joe Martucci: We have something called Register Ready, which, identifies seniors who need special assistance. It was started kind of, in the wake of Sandy back in 2012, really just on the county level, first in one of the counties, and then spread it statewide. But I want to end with this because we kind of just touched on it before. I've heard just kind of over the years that as you age, it's better to be in a city as opposed to a suburb or a rural area. I want to know if you feel that's better for people's health as they get older, and why or why not, and how that could parlay into getting assistance when a disaster hits. Lauren Southerland: I think you can age gracefully and have a great life in a rural setting or city setting, but you need to be someplace where you can access health care well, which is not every place in the US. There's some places with a lack of primary care doctors, a lack of hospitals, a lot of rural hospitals closing. What does that do to our disaster management when we have so many rural hospitals closing? So you have to consider the risks and benefits to the person. And if they live far out, where you don't have a lot of neighbors or be hard for someone to even get to you to check on you, then it's going to be difficult to make sure people are okay. But I love the, Jersey response system. Joe Martucci: I want that mean, you know, can't all be New Jersey, but others try. Most fail to replicate. Well, I'll leave it off with that. I think that's a good note to leave it off on. But, Dr. Sutherland, we really appreciate the time. Thanks for, coming on and sharing your insight about this. And, we hope everyone that's listening got a good taste of her expertise and her words about how to, always stay safe and stay prepared in both, any kind of weather that we have, particularly the significant, extreme weather that we have. So thank you again for coming on. Lauren Southerland: Thank you as well. Joe Martucci: And we want to thank Dr. Lauren Sutherland again for coming on the podcast. And if you're keeping score at home, because I know I have, that is two of our last three podcasts where our guests like something that New Jersey does. So there's that. Matt Holiner: The New Jersey connection keeps showing up. Joe Martucci: Listen, often replicated, never duplicated. Sean Sublette: The State University of New Jersey. Joe Martucci: That's right, Rutgers. The State University of New Jersey at New Brunswick. If you want to go a step. Sean Sublette: Forward, because that is where that's a lot to put on a sign. Joe Martucci: Man yes. That's why we just put the little block R. We hope people get, that it's Rutgers at that point. So what'd you guys think? What'd you guys think? Sean Sublette: No, it was good. My mom is starting to get older as well. So these are things that we have to start thinking about as she continues to get older, to maintain good quality of life for her and to be sure that she is in a safe place when the weather is threatening. She's at a good place now, and we want to be sure and keep it that way. But these are things and also, as people who the four of us, we message severe weather, right? Whether it's the classical damaging individual storms, a hurricane, a flood, an ice storm, to remember these important messages, to share with those who can't go somewhere, because sometimes they just can't. Matt Holiner: Yeah, one of the things that stood out to me is when we're talking about severe weather coverage and what to do during a tornado warning, hey, get to the lowest floor of your home, get into the basement. And then you think you're telling people to do this, but there's some people that physically cannot do it. They might be watching you or listening to your report to take Shell shelter, and they're on the second floor of their home in a wheelchair, and there's nobody else in the home with them. And how are they going to get down to the first floor? How are they going to get down to the basement? So some people not being able to physically do it, and, that's a scary thought that you could be telling people to take action, they just can't do it. So making sure that to prepare those people and make sure that again, I think it's all about the plan and preparation. When you know there's a potential for a severe weather outbreak and there's going to be a chance to rain, that's paying attention to the forecast, then making sure that that person who cannot physically who may have to take shelter and can't physically do it. Making sure there's someone in the home with them to make sure that they can get to that safe spot. They can physically carry them down if need be. If they're not physically able to do it, they have someone with them who can help them in an emergency situation. So, paying attention to the forecast. And if you don't live near your older relatives, finding someone who can help them out, a close family friend or another family member, someone who can have access to help them out in case the worst should happen and a tornado is on the ground headed towards yeah, all good stuff. Joe Martucci: And we appreciate her coming on, and especially as we're getting into winter weather, you have your blizzards snowstorms where you might actually be trapped in the house for a day or something like that. it was real good information. So we thank Lauren for coming on again here. Looking forward. We have an interview with Neil deGrasse Tyson coming up Joe Martucci: Sean, I'm going to turn it over to you because we got, a big podcast coming up next Monday, don't we? Sean Sublette: Yeah. So I'm getting ready to have an interview with Neil deGrasse Tyson, as he likes to say, your personal astrophysicist. he's launching kind of a book tour. A new book came out called To Infinity and beyond, talking about humans moving up through the atmosphere and beyond into the stars. the book tour is going to bring him down here through Richmond, so I was fortunate enough to score a 15 minutes zoom interview with him ahead of time. That interview we are actually doing, on, the 7 November. So we should drop that into the podcast, after that. So we'll talk about the importance of science and science communications, in an era of misinformation, which the four of us working in media, I know we've seen a lot of. So I'm very much looking forward to having him, do the interview and parlaying that into a podcast, coming up. Joe Martucci: Awesome. Matt Holiner: Yeah. Joe Martucci: And we got plenty more episodes after that. I'll, pat ourselves on the back, our across the sky podcast team, because we have episodes lined up pretty much until the end of the year at this point. I think we're missing one at this point, one empty slot. But we got a lot coming up for you as we go forward in time. If you want to have a question or leave a question for us, you can on our, Voicemail Hotline. I should say 609-272-7099. Again, 609-272-7099. We did have a question a, couple of weeks ago, of course. So if you want to leave a question, we're more than happy to answer it. or you can email podcast@lee.net. So for Kirsten Lang, Matt Holiner and Sean Sublette I'm Joe Martucci. And thanks again for listening to another episode of the across the Sky podcast.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It's the podcast many of you have likely been waiting for, the 2023-2024 winter outlook! With fall leaves changing throughout the country and days getting shorter in a hurry, it's time to talk about what winter is looking like. Mostly mild or unusually cold? Mainly dry or extra snowy? And how will it vary across the country? Ken Elliott, Senior Meteorologist at WeatherWorks, Inc in New Jersey, breaks down what to expect in the Northeast (21:28), Southeast (25:23), Midwest (29:55) and West (35:17). Plus, he offers his thoughts on whether parts of the country will see a White Christmas. We want to hear from you! Have a question for the meteorologists? Call 609-272-7099 and leave a message. You might hear your question and get an answer on a future episode! You can also email questions or comments to podcasts@lee.net. About the Across the Sky podcast The weekly weather podcast is hosted on a rotation by the Lee Weather team: Matt Holiner of Lee Enterprises' Midwest group in Chicago, Kirsten Lang of the Tulsa World in Oklahoma, Joe Martucci of the Press of Atlantic City, N.J., and Sean Sublette of the Richmond Times-Dispatch in Virginia. Episode transcript Note: The following transcript was created by Headliner and may contain misspellings and other inaccuracies as it was generated automatically: Winter Weather Outlook Across the Sky podcast features the Elite Enterprises national Weather Podcast Joe Martucci: You welcome everybody, to the across the sky podcast. Elite Enterprises national Weather Podcast. We are talking about a very, we'll say, emotional topic today, the 2023 2024 winter outlook. Lots of people love snow. People hate snow. A couple people are indifferent to snow. But I think, you know, everyone has an opinion on this topic. We're gonna talk about temperatures. We're going to talk about how cold. It's going to get. And we're going to have on Ken Elliott, senior Meteorologist for WeatherWorks, based in New Jersey, to talk about the entire country. We're going to break it down region by region. So let's welcome in my weather team here from across the sky, we have Sean Sublette over in Virginia, Matt Holiner in Chicagoland, and Kirsten Lang in Tulsa, Oklahoma. If you remember, we talked about our seasons when we talked about our ten things to know about fall. And I said fall is my least favorite. But what I failed to mention was if we included non-snowy winters, that would actually be my least favorite season. So it's really just the snow that's holding me to liking winter more than fall. So I'm going to toss it to Sean. Sean, if there was no snow in Virginia, does that change your opinion of winter or is snow? I don't even know. Are you a snow guy? I think you are. Sean Sublette: Yeah. So, like last year, there was no snow. I mean, there was flat up, almost no snow. We had like one hour's worth of snow one morning and that was it. It coated the ground and it didn't even register a trace on the other side of town. But I, like a good snow. And when I say a good snow, I mean, all right, this is at least five or six inches where it matters. And you can do something with the snow. And we haven't had that in a while, a few years, across the entire statewide and that kind of thing. There's certainly little pockets that have done better than others. But I do like a good snow. And, as I think our guest will discuss, there are reasons for optimism for those, who've been aching for a little bit of snow. So that's where I'll kind of leave that. Matt Holiner: Well, my opinion of winter has recently changed. No. When I was in the up, I grew up in San Antonio, but then I spent three years even farther south in the Rio Grande Valley. McAllen Brownsville, Texas. And winter is wonderful there. In fact, people from up north come to Deep South Texas to enjoy the winter. Joe Martucci: Because you can have a lot of. Matt Holiner: Days where it's in the and you, know, when it freezes, it can happen, but it's a big deal. Well, now I live in Chicago and it's a little bit colder. I like to do the comparison. I always tell people winter in Chicago is like summer in Texas. You spend as much time inside as it is. For me, it's more the cold than the snow. Now, my opinion on snow is I don't like too much of it. I like snow. I would like two big snows for the season, and that would be good for me. One early and maybe one I don't like. It too late again. You get tired of the cold once you get into February especially. It gets very old in the Midwest. So I would say, give me a December snow and late, January snow, and then I'm good. But two big snows, like, get it all out. It gets annoying when you have these, like, here's a couple of inches here and an inch there. Here's another three inch snow, another one inch snow. It's like, give me six, seven, eight inches. Dump it all once. Get it, do that twice a year, and then I'm good with snow. So I like some snow, but not too much. And, I'm definitely not as big of a winter fan now, and I would have to say in Chicago, it is now my least favorite season. Kirsten Lang: We sound like Goldilocks and the Three Bears. It's like, I want just right. Not a little bit of this, not too much of that. Just right. The problem with Tulsa, in this part of the country is that, unfortunately, what you get more often during the winter is cold rain. And there's nothing I hate more than cold. Matt Holiner: Rain is the worst. Kirsten Lang: Like, when it's like, 39 degrees and it's just raining. Like, what do you do with that? You can't enjoy it. It's not snowing. You can't go out there and just have a good time. It's not my favorite season, but that's okay. Joe Martucci: Was it your least favorite season? Kirsten Lang: No, I said summer was probably, but that's only recent because I have a bunch of little kids now, and I hate sweating, running around, chasing them. Joe Martucci: Right. Kirsten Lang: So winter would probably come second to least favorite. Joe Martucci: Got it. Interesting. I just want to say for the record, I actually matt, to disagree with you a little bit there. I actually like snow late in the like, give me some March. Like, up until St. Patrick's Day, it can snow all at once. But right. As soon as St. Patrick's Day ends boom. It's got to start warming up, like, immediately. Matt Holiner: See, even by beginning of March, for, like, if it's snowing, that means it's still cold. And I'm just so over the cold at the Midwest. By the time we're done with February, it's like, as soon as we hit March, it's like, all right, it's time to warm up. But unfortunately, March is still unpleasantly cold across much of the Midwest. You don't really break out of it until April. So if we can get lucky and have an above normal March as far as temperatures go and less snow, I'm all about it in the know. Joe Martucci: Let's, give a plug here to what we'll be doing this winter. If you're listening, from your favorite local news website, one of us four will be covering your market when it does snow this winter. Whether you're in Oregon, Illinois, or in New York, New Jersey, wherever, keep throwing out the states, any of our Lee Enterprises properties will be covering when there is some decent snow to kind of give you those weather kind of alerts as we go into this winter here. So we'll call it an intro for now, and we'll get you into the meat and potatoes of the winter forecast. Here we'll talk with Ken Elliott from Weather. And now we are welcoming on for the 2023- 2024 winter outlook. Ken Elliott, he is senior meteorologist for WeatherWorks, friend of mine as well. Ken, thanks for being on the Cross Sky podcast. We appreciate it. Ken Elliott: Always a pleasure. Joe, always happy to talk snow, winter, and, especially with somebody gosh, how far do we go back? Too many years to count. Joe Martucci: Yeah, I think we're on double digits at this point. Or we're getting we're I think we're past double digits. Are we better double digits? Ken Elliott: Yeah, I think so. Joe Martucci: So we go way back. We share love for Jose Tejas, but we won't talk about that, in this podcast. You got to be in New Jersey to know. But we'll talk about the winter, ahead. First, you know, tell everybody what WeatherWorks does, and then my next question is what goes into the winter forecast in terms of, like, man hours and people, not so much the weather ingredients, but just the logistics of it. Ken Elliott: WeatherWorks as a whole. We service all sorts of industries. Basically anyone that has a need for weather, we're always interested in helping somebody out at its core. Way back when, Frank Lombardo, founded, the company in 1986 that was just a couple of contractors and road departments and mostly radio stations. We have since morphed to plenty of road departments, large contractors, some national, and property managers. Still, municipalities are kind of the bread and butter of our tons of people that have needs for weather data. We're happy to provide it because obviously, we all know weather data is everywhere. It's how you present it, how you interpret it, how you communicate it. And that's what we try to do to set us aside, aside from all the other apps and other data availability out there. And that's obviously, always, we were colleagues back in the day. Some of the stuff that we do now is almost unrecognizable in, a good way. I mean, the ideas are the same, but how we go about doing it is different. The volume of clients is greater. And it's cool for me because I've now been here for 17 years, knocking on my door number 18. And, just to see how far we've come, it's truly remarkable. And sometimes I forget that. And then when I talk to people that come on board, they're like, oh yeah, what you used to do. Then I go to talk about the stories and it's like, wow. It's not embarrassing, but it just goes to show you how far, we've come as a company, how far the technologies come. And by the way, that's not just like computer models, that's just everything just big data. It's truly amazing. So we try to put the personal touch on weather data for whoever wants it. And that's the thing, we work with our clients to come up with the solutions. The second part of your question about, what goes in the winter forecast, at some level it's kind of ugly. We have a crack staff, led by Jim Sullivan, kyle Leahy and Kevin Winters. Those guys, they are like the crux of the operation. They know more about all of the alphabet soup of teleconnections, and all of their implications, better than anybody I know. Then we supplement that with data folks who say, okay, once our core of long range forecasters, establish what we think the patterns will be in the analogs and that kind of stuff, then we involve our data team. And our data team was probably, years ago, just like a part time operation, comparatively. Now we've got three or four guys that just, you can ask for anything and they'll get it for you and that's great. So data is at the heart of what we do. That's kind of another one of our mantras, because we can have the best idea of the forecast. But what does that mean in terms of what can actually happen? What are the means? What are the extremes? If it's cold and snowy, well, okay, cold and snowy, that's fine. Does that relate to, in what's actually going to happen? How snowy can it get? Obviously in long range forecasting, forecasting extremes is kind of, questionable and you never feel good about doing it, but you want to know what they are. So again, the data people help out. Then we go back and say, okay, where does this make sense? And then the worst part is then we have to revisit it constantly, right? Because we start this process, at least informally in June, ah, very much internally, kind of talking about what we think is going to happen. Largely very big picture stuff like El Nino and La Nina. Then we keep on refining that. And it's kind of this delicate balance of watching things for change, but not want to deviate too far. So we put out our first initial outlook. I think it was, August 15, give or take. We had our core of what the analogues were. And I forget how many we dropped or added along the way, but that set that we start out with on August 15, is not what we finished with a couple of weeks ago. So it's kind of constantly evaluating it just like any forecast. Just like any forecast. Where do you go from it? And then it's also trying to get that down to how can we help our clients with this information? Just because we're saying cold and snowy, doesn't mean that the entire winter will be colder, snowy, or vice versa. What times are we looking at it's cold. What is cold? Right. On a national level, we're going with sneak preview kind of mild in parts of the north, but in the north it's cold. So even when it's mild, if I'm in the mid twenty, s five degrees above normal is well above normal, but that's still pretty darn cold. So it's kind of taking this scientific humble jumble at some level, the very beginning infancy, creating a forecast and then making that forecast helpful to our clients and the public at large. Matt Holiner: And Ken, I think the public is starting to become more aware of the different computer models out there. And they hear the meteorologists talking about the terms of our short range models and our long range models, but they'll still think there's some conclusion in how long range those models are. Because especially the two long range models the public is probably most familiar with, the American GFS model and the European ECMWF model only go out 14 days. So what information, what data are you looking at when you're putting together a winter outlook for multiple months? Because you're not looking at the GFS, or European model that only go out 14 days. So what data are you looking at to make these forecasts? Ken Elliott: Sure. Well, number one is not even model data. One of them is just straight up, what's El Nino doing now? Because that's the one teleconnection we probably have, the best feel for. It's also the most public visibility. So even people that really aren't hardcore into weather, they've probably heard about El Nino, especially I, forget the skit from SNL back in the 90s. So it's got some public awareness, not to mention the, Euro ensembles forecast El Nino. And there's also the IRI out of Columbia University that also has, their model plumes, for El Nino. So that's kind of where we start. Right. And it's very granular. And then we'll start saying, okay, these models say that El Niño or ENSO will do x, Y or Z. It almost doesn't matter what X, Y or Z is, but, okay, let's see where we've been, where we've come from, what the models thought along the way, and then we'll start, okay, good, that's fine to know. and again, still kind of almost acting in a vacuum of that, we'll start saying, all right, well, these prior years, we think, are kind of similar years is kind of a colloquial term internally. We kind of call them analog years. And those are like the bread and butter of the forecast. And then once we kind of get those, hint of what we think the analogs might be and again, like I mentioned before, that can shift with time. It's not all of a sudden going to be whatever we lock in initially is going to kind of make it. Then we say, okay, well, while the European and GFS models only go out two weeks or so, there also are the Euro weeklies and monthlies that we can look at, the canned sips and models along those lines. Again, they can be questionable at times, but it's part of the picture. And you're not necessarily looking to see, what kind of, temperatures it's forecasting. Any particular, certainly not a particular day, but even on a weaker monthly timescale, looking for trends, is it persistently cold? Has it been warm and turning colder? And then you kind of work from that. It's, almost like sausage making at some level. You don't really necessarily want to know how the pieces go together, but it kind of works in the end. And that's the best answer I can give because, man, it can get ugly. And the other thing, too, that we're very, proud of WeatherWorks. It's not just like a one days approach. We lean more heavily on the analogs, than actual forecast models going out because there's just too much variability there. But it's also a team effort. So we talk about like computer model ensembles of various runs of different models. But we kind of use that at a personal level, too. It's not just one person making forecast. So we'll say, okay, I might think it's cold, somebody might say warm. And then we'll kind of talk it out and see, okay, what's most likely why do you say that? And kind of know human ensembles, which in my view, are probably the best ones. Sean Sublette: Yeah, it's Sean here. And that's one of the things that I remember beating into my head as an undergrad, is that consensus is normally the best forecast. When you get all of your heads together, hopefully you get to something that's going to be the right answer or closest to the right answer. And I dabble in this just a little bit, mostly looking at analogs and looking, as we call the alphabet soups out there, things like the QBO, the PDO, all these things that are kind of beyond the scope of this particular podcast. But do you see, aside from ENSO any other kind of dominant influences? I think we all know the El Nino Southern Oscillation is kind of the big one. But when we look at some of these other recurring oscillations and changes and Indian Ocean dipole, all this stuff, are there any others that more recently the science has kind of suggested. This is one that we look at in addition to ENSO that plays a stronger role in how the winter is going to play out. Ken Elliott: I think that probably depends upon who you talk to. And that's a very good question, by the way, because ENSO is not only the most widely known, it's the one that we've kind of been around the longest, we have the longer data sets. Most meteorologists even we've all heard along the way, we've all had it, even in school. Whereas a, lot of the students going through college now are learning a lot more about the alphabet soup than any of us probably ever did going along the way. And by the way, that's a good thing because, beyond El Nino, I didn't really know much. A little bit of NAO and whatnot. But in terms of which ones, can be more helpful, I think it kind of depends upon what kind of winter you're looking at, or any season for that matter. When, the ENSO signals, be it El Nino or La Nina, are particularly strong, usually it's kind of hard for other things to influence that. But when it might be more moderated, or when you're transitioning from one to the other, then that's when some of the, other you, I think you kind of hit on the two that are probably the most impactful the PDO and the QBO. But again, that's kind of in my view, anyway, and I'm sure there's other valid opinions on this, it's more of in the frame of reference as to what else might be going on. And sometimes we're taking fairly educated guesses at that. There's all kinds of data out there, but especially when it comes to a lot of these, indices and alphabet soups, as we all call them, the really good data only goes back like 50 to 70 years, really. In the grand scheme of things, it's not that many, especially since we're kind of, in general, this kind of like, warming climate. I'll kind of stay out of the political aspects of that. But in general, it's just not as cold as it was ten or 20 years ago, whatever the reasons are, if it's short term, long term, or recurring, or going to go back, whatever. So looking at comparing something from like 1970 isn't even all that helpful in 2023. So I think depends upon where we're going, and what the overall idea is this year particularly. I think ENSO is kind of, the big game. I don't think there's really anything that's going to overcome it, at least on a seasonal scale. Maybe on a couple of weeks here or there. Maybe the PDO does something to over influence it. But overall, I'll put my money in ENSO for the time being. Kirsten Lang: And Ken, could you kind of give us maybe just a little? It's a very broad general question, but just a little recap kind of on what last year's forecast was and then how it actually played out. How things went with that. Ken Elliott: Yeah, sure. Last year's forecast was basically cold north central United States. So we'll say from the northern mountains of like Wyoming and Montana across into the Great Lakes and northernmost New England. A ah, fairly mild southern tier of the United States. Up into the east coast. The idea there was that the warmth would be dominant especially mid and late season. Which by and large was true, especially from an east coast perspective. And that the cold air would kind of spill over at times out of the upper plains and Great Lakes. From the snowfall kind of went in lockstep with that. The areas that were cold would do very well snowfall wise. So basically the Upper Plains, Upper Great Lakes, northern New England and even snow. Again, the forecast was for it to go pretty much down to the I-70 corridor pretty much across the country. But especially say Midwest Ohioish out towards Denver in terms of what actually almost the idea was great, but just a little bit off on the location. We would put like a place like Chicago for example, in the above normal snowfall. Well it didn't quite work out so well. It was further up into Wisconsin and Minnesota. They snowed plenty up there. Maiden was a little further north than we would have anticipated from a more east coast standpoint. We were kind of thinking it would be tough to get a lot of meaningful snow mid late year and that turned out to be true. But we thought December was going to do better than it did and we came pretty close. We got a nice cold shot deep trough just before Christmas. But it was transient. There was really no, I mean there was rain with it and a brief end of snow in places. It ended up being like a very large refreeze in certain cases in the mountains, like a flash freeze. But it didn't really pan out with the snow, especially in that December aspect. So we had the idea pretty good. Just some of the finer details were off by a little bit in terms of their specific location. Joe Martucci: And a lot of the mid Atlantic even saw like near record low snow like here along the Jersey shore. We had near record low, actually record low down towards Cape May. But you're right, as it went later, it definitely was on the milder side here across the area. So good stuff so far. Ken Elliott: Ken. Joe Martucci: We're going to take a brief break and then the other side probably the time everybody listening here has been waiting for what Ken and WeatherWorks is thinking for the winter outlook for 2023 and 2024. You're listening to the across the sky podcast. Welcome back, everybody, to the across the sky podcast. The Enterprises National Weather Podcast. New episodes come out every Monday wherever you get your podcast and on your favorite local news website. We are back again with Ken Elliott, senior meteorologist at WeatherWorks in New Jersey, and we are talking about the winter outlook here and now is the mean, listen me as just a person in the public always gets excited about winter forecasts, let alone as someone as a meteorologist. So it's always a big moment when we get into winter forecast season. And Ken, what we're going to do is we're going to break this down region by region here for our listening audience here. So let's start off with maybe the area of the country that gets most emotional about snow. We'll say the I-95 corridor in the Northeast. I'll let you have at it, Ken. Ken Elliott: Sure. And I say it's also usually the most interesting too, m a lot of variability year to year other parts of the country. A lot of times, especially in areas that snow frequently, the variability is less like in the Midwest and Plains, the snow floor and the snow ceiling are generally fairly accepted and you end up in fairly typical ranges on a lot. From a statistical standpoint, standard deviations of average snowfall are relatively low on the east coast, however, you either get it or you don't. And the extremes can be pretty extreme. This year, I think the folks that you go further south be the most interested because especially, and you alluded to it, know, Atlantic City, Cape May, and even going out towards know, DC, Baltimore. It was a struggle to snow and El Nino years, and I think this will be a good one, will keep a big subtropical jet stream a powerful one and a more important dominant one in play. So even if temperatures aren't all that cold at points, I do think that subtropical jet stream gets us at least a lot of players on the field. Will all those become snowstorms? Probably not, statistics would say otherwise. Even when it snows a lot in Baltimore and DC and Virginia probably have a good number of rain events in there too. But I think that subtropical jet will mean business at points. I think early season M might be a little touch and go, not looking for like a shutout completely, but it'll be tough, especially the further south again, where you'd expect it's just hard for Baltimore to snow in December, no matter how favorable the pattern is. I think you go through the later weeks of January into February. I think that's where the temperatures and the busy jet streaming are most favored to get you bigger storms there. A lot of our analog years had a lot of snow, varying degrees, but I hate to mention this too, but one of the analog was nine in 2010, and that was snowmageddon. So, again, I wouldn't dare forecast that. But I think that kind of gives you an idea that the upper end is in play here. In fact, in the Mid Atlantic, the firmer analogs, there's twice the likelihood of six inch plus events this year, compared to a regular year. So just that doesn't only takes one or two events in the Mid Atlantic to get you up to normal. Further north. Again, it's closer to average. Again, remember, averages get significantly higher once you start getting, up into New York City and beyond. So I think the storm track might end up being a little bit more mid Atlantic based than New England based, but New England will get it on it too. They're even going to try here a little bit in early to mid-November to get a little bit of snow. So we'll see how that goes, especially in the mountains. But again, not a shutout here by any stretch, even early in the season. I do think the best matching for cold and snow still does favor mid and late season, but more in line with what you'd ordinarily expect maybe a little bit below. Again, nothing too crazy, but certainly a lot more snow. What was had last year, because Boston was even below normal last year, i, think just a hair over 20 inches, we'll get a little more better distribution because it was only not too far away from Boston in those hills where there was like 80 plus. So there was really tight gradients up there. Hopefully a lot of that eases out and we'll see a lot more consistent snowfall this season. Joe Martucci: Could we talk about March real quick, too? I think you alluded to it, but we're talking March always that wild card month anyway, right? Just what are your thoughts then? Ken Elliott: Yeah, I think there's a decent chance for a little bit of a hangover early on, but I don't think it's one of these years where winter just refuses to yield. El Ninos, they just don't support a whole lot of, late season snow. So, especially once you start getting into areas that you would expect to have a hard time snowing in March. I think once you get to March 10 to 15th, it'll be tough not to say that it'll be easy in New England either, but it's easier there. But I wouldn't expect to be one of the seasons where we're sitting here March 27, worrying about a coastal snowstorm. Sean Sublette: All right, so let's go down to the Middle Atlantic. And I'm thinking Virginia, and especially because we have ten different, organizations or properties here in Virginia, and I'm looking at moderate to strong and so years. And for most places there's less snow. But you see this little ribbon when you plot up the data of near or above normal snowfall, of all places, Virginia. So when you. Talk about the nine and ten analog. I'm like, yes, I hear exactly what you're talking about. So I'm kind of of that mindset where I've been telling people there'll be more than last year. But are you also of the mindset? And let's talk about the area from Virginia all the way to Texas as the Southeast. Because we know in a positive, so subtropical jet dominates here. So there's the possibility of more than average snow, in Virginia. But then how do you think that plays out in locations farther southward? I'm imagining snow really isn't an issue here, but do you still think it's cooler or wetter in these places from the Carolina down to Florida and westward toward, let's say, Oklahoma and Texas? Ken Elliott: Indeed, cooler and wetter for sure. And that's basically a feedback on each other cooler because of the busier patterns, so it doesn't get to warm up as much. However, I don't dislike snow into places further into the south. I mean, I could see this being a decent year in the interior carolinas, ah, even down in the know, they will snow on occasion. They did a little bit one storm last year. I don't see why they couldn't do that again this year, again, very busy jet stream. It's not going to be a frequent occurrence by any stretch. But if there's a year to go above normal there, I kind of like, know we also kind of forget, that places like Arkansas, upper Mississippi, northern Alabama, they have sneaky elevations there. So it's not just like Gulf Coast Mobile, where maybe if they see a flake, that's like a big deal. But I could see some places that might average five to ten inches in the Deep South meeting or exceeding those numbers this year, just because there's going to be an above normal number of storms. And even if it's not cold, cold below normal in January is pretty cold. And that can get it done on one or two occasions. And I think it can kind of translate that further west too, out, towards Texas, Oklahoma, and even southern Kansas might not be quite as, with quite as much, confidence, I would say, in places like Virginia and maybe western Carolinas, but still, busy jet stream. I'll take the jet stream any day because unlike La Nina, where the northern jet stream is a little more dominant, le Neil is with that subtropical, jet stream, across the southern US. That comes north a little bit. A couple of times. That's all it takes. Especially in January and February. Sean Sublette: Yeah, that's in my mind, too. Before I turn this over to Matt in the Midwest, one other question I've been wanting to ask you. I've been talking to a couple other people out there about this, but the idea that I kind of have in my head is that this is a kind of pattern developing for this winter that lends itself to one or maybe two blockbusters and that's kind of it. I'm not saying that's a done deal by any stretch, but do you think that this pattern also kind of lends itself to that situation, let's say from a Raleigh to a Richmond to a DC and to South Jersey? Do you think a little better than average odds of something like do? Ken Elliott: You know, the analogs are the analogs and there's no perfect one. Obviously a perfect analog doesn't exist. It's the unicorn of the long range forecasting world. But a lot of the analogues did have like one to two. Further north would be more like three. But again, just one or two big storms that produces a snowfall. And especially when you start getting the areas we're talking about, average snowfall is not that high. So one storm can easily get you to normal. And anything above that, all of a sudden you're way above. So that's kind of also why normal snowfall bothers me. Just because in the mid-Atlantic and south it's just exactly just an average of extremes where you have four years out of 20 that it snowed. But you got like a 25 spot in there and all of a sudden it just kind of skews the average a little bit. So yeah, I do like the idea of one or two big storms most favored especially for the south, february is a little bit harder because you got better sun angle starts to warm up a little bit more. But later January 1, half of February, maybe we can go more into later February up into Virginia. But yeah, a lot of signs for one or two bigger storms and maybe more rainier kind of mixy events otherwise. Matt Holiner: And Ken, I want to focus on the Midwest next and just looking back to last winter, it was an interesting winter in the Midwest because boy did we have a lot of systems. I mean there was a period where it was on a weekly basis, we had a low pressure system tracking across the Midwest, but it was also very interesting how these low pressure systems often took a very similar path. And while there were lots of places that definitely got in on the clouds and the wind and the ups and downs and the temperatures because of this similar path, there were places that definitely. Joe Martucci: Got a lot of snow. Matt Holiner: But then there was a sharp cutoff. And if you go from Chicago down to the south, a lot of people were wondering where is the snow? Because being in Chicago, it was not a particularly cold or snowy winter for us. But you go up into Wisconsin, even southern Wisconsin, it got way more snow. Ken Elliott: Really. Matt Holiner: There was almost a cut off on the Wisconsin Illinois border where there was just snow, rain, that good old snow rain line. So tons of snow in Minnesota as well, and Wisconsin, and even northern Iowa and northern Nebraska seeing more snow than southern Nebraska and southern Iowa. Of course, historically, that's the way it works, but it just seemed like it was even exaggerated, more so last year, where these systems kept taking a very similar path. but again, also because there were so many systems, it was also interesting, while there were lots of days with below normal high temperatures because of all the cloud cover at night, there were actually a lot of warm nights. So if you look at just the average temperature of the winter, it wasn't particularly cold in the Midwest because of all the cloud cover, there were a lot of nights that weren't as cold as normal. And above normal low temperatures was pretty common in the Midwest. So with all that said to kind of recap the Midwest, what are we looking at this year? Kind of looking at. We'll include North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, on over across Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana and Ohio. Just the Midwest. What are we looking at this one? Ken Elliott: Sure. Overall, I would say temperature wise, normal to slightly above normal. I kind of alluded to that earlier, where normal in some of these places is just darn cold. So it's not to know, even if you're well above normal, you can't snow. You can and you will snow at some point, when your temperatures are that cold. Actually looking, I believe it was, fargo, the average high bottoms out at 23 degrees, in mid to late January. So even being ten above normal for a high still gets you into the low 30s, where obviously it easily can snow. As we found out last year, we snowed a lot above freezing on the east coast. So, with that said, I think that the StormTrack will be different this year. Whereas last year was kind of more one of those cutter kind of situations where it was putting the better snows. Like you said, it kind of happens a lot anyway, but more west based, maybe northern parts of the Rockies on into Minnesota, I think that'll be a little bit more shifted south this time, so the gradient probably reverses. We talked about this a little bit, a second ago with Sean, where it was more like the south that would have the busier subtropical jet, I think southern parts, the Midwest, that's kind of like the wild card area. Anywhere south of I-70, I think you can get in on those bigger storms. And again, might not be a whole heck of a lot of them, because they get a lot of suppression south, but you get these bigger storms and you can quickly add up. So places maybe like, maybe even Tulsa, but I'd feel even better St. Louis, Cincinnati, even if you want to include out into parts of, the, central and eastern great Lakes, like Pittsburgh, places like that. I could see a lot of variability where there's sharp cutoffs between a good amount of snow and more normal snow further north. And you kind of alluded to this last year and I could see this kind of the forecast kind of repeating itself. A lot of systems go by. The polar jet stream is not dominant, but it's not dead. And we looked at the analog years. Almost every one of them had greater than 20 or in most cases even 25 measurable snowfall days, which isn't that far below normal. Anyway, again, a lot, it's not going to be like it's quiet, but a lot of lighter, more nuisance y kind of snows. Snow showers. Maybe you get one or two better clippers in there too. But again, it's not going to be from a lack of frequency that the Midwest, doesn't get above normal snowfall. It'll be basically because lighter systems outnumber the wetter systems that will be more favored towards the south. What does all that mean? I could see a place, know, Chicago having similar to snow to Cincinnati, which ordinarily kind know, wouldn't see. I could see stuff like that happening this year. But again, frequency, I don't think that's going away. I could see this northern jet stream giving plenty of systems, not a lot of moisture with them, granted, but a lot of quarter, half inch, inch type systems instead of like three to sixes and that sort of thing. and to that end, I talked about it earlier, the Midwest snowfall variability is generally less anyway, Chicago getting and I forget what the exact number is, you probably know off the top of your head, but like low twenty s, I think in Chicago that's about as low as it can go. So I think you do better than that. Anyway, this year I think the east coast method applies. I think you get more how much more I think, depends upon can you cash in and get some three to six inch clippers versus the more disorganized snow showery ones. Kirsten Lang: And Ken, can we talk a little too about the West Coast just kind of rounding this all out then and finishing up on that side of the country. What are they looking at this year? Ken Elliott: Sure, West Coast will be a tail, will be a tale of two wests. Basically. This west to east gradient we're kind of looking at across most of the country kind of goes all the way out to the West Coast. So a lot of times we're looking at for the heavier snows to be up in the northwest. Well, since the southern jet stream will be the dominant one this year, I think places like the Southwest four, corners, sierra Nevada, Southern Rockies too, I think Denver, Colorado Springs somewhere. There's going to be a tight gradient between where it snows quite extensively. Then we start going a little bit lighter as we go, further north. And I also wouldn't be surprised if they do better earlier and middle this season. While other parts of the country probably are just starting to cool off a little bit more. And they might make trend a little bit warmer and less snowy with time. So I could see season more kind of front to middle loaded there with still plenty of moisture in that subtropical jet stream. So some of the Sierra Nevadas, which is actually good because they still need to replenish some of the water supplies out there. This will be a very busy jet stream. So plenty of mountain snow places even like Flagstaff, Arizona, could have sneaky high snowfall this year. You think of them as kind of being desertish, but less moisture. It's still cold, it's still a snow, and it can pile up pretty well further north. I think places like Spokane in the Northwest, Idaho. That's kind of the most interesting question to me because you can get snow there in less than ideal ways. And there's many times when that mean northern injection might be even a little bit too far north. So if that's the case, I could see them going, maybe a week or two at a time without a whole heck of a lot of any kind of precipitation. But I still think at times that's going to buckle. And I'd favor more December or January than February. I think it'll buckle at times. And they'll still get some snows as well. Maybe not quite as much as the ski resorts might want. But, I don't think, I think this could apply anywhere. I don't think there's really a shutout there either. Might be a little bit less frequent, might have some longer dry spells. but the Northwest, they'll see their snow either by hook or crook, just when the pattern relaxes a little bit, where that subtropical jet stream maybe goes more, say, in Northern and Central California than say, Southern California and going on in towards, the rest of the south, towards Texas. Matt Holiner: And Ken, looking back again at last winter, and we talked about the epic snow that California got, do you think then there's kind of been a little bit of buz about could that happen again? What are your thoughts about a repeat of the epic snow season that they saw last season happening back to back years? Ken Elliott: It very well could, and I think would be a tight gradient. There'll be some place that might be more very Northern California and Oregon that get into that gradient. But, the Central and Southern California mountains, I think this is a very good year for them, because there's almost no way that it can't snow a lot. You got a subtropical jet stream that's it's going to move at times. Yeah. But it's going to be close enough by for a pretty long stretch. And it's hard for them not to be cold. The temperature anomalies down there. And this goes even all the way on to Texas. A lot of these times, these months were below normal. And all of them like 70, 80% of the time in the analog. So even when it's, quote unquote, mild or seasonable, with that subtropical jet stream not really going anywhere, this could be another battery year for those. Joe Martucci: And Ken, let me ask you guys, do you guys do Alaska and Hawaii winter forecasting? And if you do, I mean, obviously Hawaii is not going to get much, but could you, like, maybe in 30 seconds talk to us about just rounding out the rest of the country there? Ken Elliott: Yeah, we don't really do, Hawaii, but again, usually they'll find a way on those top peaks. They'll get snow at some point that'll. Joe Martucci: Get a little bit. Kirsten Lang: Sure. Ken Elliott: Yep. Now, the subtropical jet stream might end up I didn't look at it closely enough to see how far south of Hawaii, goes at points, but that could be close enough that they do better than you would think. And again, I wouldn't expect, if you're going on a Maui vacation, to have any issues with snow. But I'm sure the peaks will come up up in Alaska, kind of like the northwest, I think it'll be touch and go. They've already had, several events already up in the north. I was just talking to some of our guys doing some snowfall analysis up there a little while ago. But up in Alaska, I could see it being, some longer bouts where that jet stream, is more north and there's too far away from the subtropical jet to get on that. So I could see some longer spells, especially central and southern, Alaska that just kind of struggle for a while. Again, subtropical jet stream not dead, but certainly not as active. So frequency probably goes down a little bit in Alaska. The other thing is, sometimes there's like ridging out there. When we snow on the East Coast, it's hard for the entire country to snow simultaneously, including Alaska at times. So there will likely be times where it's really not doing a whole heck of a lot, especially outside of Barrow or something. When it's warm and dry, it's still 27 degrees. And with light snow, just because it's just getting every condensing, every possible moisture particle, out of the atmosphere. Right. I could see it being kind of like touch and go where there might be some spells where not a whole lot happens. But I never sleep on Alaska because they can just take the quietest time and just all of a sudden, the jet stream departs for a week or two. And while that might be the transition on the southern eastern United States that transitions when they get wrecked for a couple of days. Right. Joe Martucci: Alaska. Ah, it'll always snow in Alaska. Ken Elliott: Exactly. Joe Martucci: And then, a question that I know is always a popular one when it comes to the winter, a white Christmas. Do you guys talk anything about just for fun with your clients about white Christmas? How does it look compared to average? More likely in some spots, less likely in others. Obviously, that would parlay into your December forecast as well. Ken Elliott: Sure. I like it in the interior south. So central and Southern Appalachians, I like it a lot. Central and Southern Rockies? Absolutely. Mountains of California? Absolutely. It's tougher east. I still think there's some mild there that we're going to have to try to get rid of in December. There will be a couple of snow events in December. We'll just have to see how they time out. I do kind of like the idea that and not just climatologically speaking, I could see how it's just more conducive to snow later in December than earlier in December. Just because of some relaxation maybe, and some of that warmth from very late November and early December. So I like the odds of snow at December relative to early the month. But it might be hard on Christmas. If we do have a white Christmas on the 95 Corridor, it will take some very conducive timing and Santa's. Joe Martucci: Little magic twinkle, in his eye to make it happen. Ken Elliott: St. Nick never let you down. Joe Martucci: That is true. I think that's all we have, for the questions here on our part. Is there anything you want to wrap up here when we take a look at the winter outlook? Ken Elliott: No, I really don't think so. I mean, we pretty covered a whole lot of ground here. I think the one thing to take away here is just because the pattern is so different than it was last year, whatever you had last year is unlikely to repeat itself, at least in terms of how you got there. The end result could be kind of similar in terms of snowfall. And again, especially, in the Midwest now, I think that's probably the most likely area that snowfall is kind of, m more touch and go in that. But like, the way we get there is be vastly different. So bigger storms, you can take that to the bank when exactly they are who they hit, certainly that's certainly up in the air at this point. But the pattern is so much different that whatever happened last year, it will be completely different. At least how we got there, storm attack wise types of storms. Even if the end result is kind of similar, if you kind of average out the numbers at the end of the year. Joe Martucci: Got it? Ken Elliott: Yep. Joe Martucci: And that, that's what happens. We have our El Media winter that we are expecting here. Well, Ken, listen, we really appreciate it. And I'm, sure all of our listening audience appreciates all your insight that you have, from WeatherWorks here. We hope you guys have a good winter. And personally, I want some snow. I don't need record breaking, but more than last year, for me, please, where we had next to nothing, I. Ken Elliott: Think that is entirely doable. It's got to snow way more. I mean, the subtropical jet stream by itself gets you ten times what you. Joe Martucci: Got last year, right? We shall see. Well, thanks again, ked. We really appreciate and thanks for coming on the pod. Ken Elliott: Thanks for having me. I appreciate it. Thanks all. Joe Martucci: A, big thank you to Ken for really doing a fantastic job. I hope you all really enjoyed it, because what he did well not only give the forecast right, which is great, but also breaking it down very nicely and very easy to understand way for you, whether you're in the northeast, southeast, great Lakes, west, wherever, even Alaska, he did a really nice job. So what do you guys think? Sean Sublette: His clothes, I think, was very good. It's like whatever you had last year probably is not going to be this year. So the idea of continuity, it's going to be kind of the same, is probably not going to play out the weather pattern and all that stuff. It's fundamentally different going into this winter. So do not expect, the same type of weather pattern that we were locked into for a lot of last winter, no matter where you are. Matt Holiner: And I think the one thing to stress know, sometimes people do get carried away. They talk about a warm winter. It doesn't mean it's going to be warm, it's still going to be cold, especially in the Midwest, when you're talking about above normal temperatures, yes, warmer than normal, but that doesn't mean that it's not going to be cold in the Midwest. Now, I would say that for places like Minnesota, Wisconsin, North Dakota, the place that got some really big snows last year because of the combination of it probably being warmer and drier, a repeat of the heavy snow that we saw in those locations that looks like that's going down. But it'll be interesting in the southern part of the Midwest. That's what intrigued me, how he said Cincinnati could end up seeing the same amount of snow as Chicago. And I actually spent a couple years forecasting for Cincinnati, and that would not be normal. Cincinnati is typically a warmer place that sees less snow than Chicago, and it. Seems like there could be a repeat. In some parts of the Midwest, but. The area to watch might be the. Southern tier of the Midwest where they got the systems last year. But many times they were on the. Joe Martucci: Warm side of it. Matt Holiner: It was just, an all rain thing. I think that it's going to be, again, all about the timing. Can we get the moisture to line up with the cold. And I think we're definitely going to have the moisture in the southern part of the Midwest, maybe even more so than last year across the southern tier of the Midwest. Can that cold air reach down there for it to be snow instead of rain? So we'll have to watch for places like St. Louis yeah. The Cincinnati's and then Chicago in the transition zone. We'll have to see if we can get a little bit more snow because last year to Chicago was more on the rain side. But we'll end up being a little bit more on the stow side this year. I think it may end up being a kind of a wash here in Chicago because of the warmer air that's expected. It's probably going to be a little. Bit warmer than normal again. So Chicago may be a repeat, but watch maybe a little bit more snow in the southern part. Kirsten Lang: And if we could just get some snow here in Tulsa too, and not the cold rain that I hate so much, I'll be happy. Matt Holiner: Yeah, no cold rain. Joe Martucci: When I think about Tulsa and Dallas, Wichita, I think about a lot of ice. Would I be true? Kirsten Lang: We had some pretty significant icing events. One of them was back in 2007, I believe. I mean, it shut the city down for like a week or two. It was a big deal. Thankfully, I wasn't living here. But of course there are many, many people that were. So they get real nervous when they hear ice because that was kind of a traumatizing event. Joe Martucci: Yeah, ice is definitely the worst because, it's not fun. It doesn't look nice. It just kind of looks like rain. And it turns everything into an ice rink. Kirsten Lang: You can't do anything. Yeah. Joe Martucci: And you can't do anything. Matt Holiner: Overall, though, my takeaway was though, that we're probably going to be pretty busy as we talked about the beginning of the podcast. Updating everyone. Because though it might be a little bit quieter on the snow side in the northern part of the country, there's going to be an uptick in the southern part of the country with all these systems that are going to go by. And again, it just seems hard for places like the Northeast, like Richmond and New Jersey for y'all to have a repeat of last winter where there was all, the snubby snow. It seems pretty unlikely to happen in back to back years. So I would say overall that as a country, if you look at the big national picture, a busier winter, it was certainly busy for some last winter, but I think it's going to more even out. It might be quieter in some places, but some places gain a boost. And so I think more places are probably going to have a boost in. How active the winter is. So I think there'll be plenty to talk about this winter in various places at various times. Joe Martucci: Absolutely. All right, well, let us know what you guys thought about, the winter forecast episode. You can tell us your thoughts on winter as well. Podcast@lee.net. That's plural. Podcast. Podcasts@lee.net. You can also call our hotline. We have a Lee Weather team across the sky podcast hotline. That number is 609-272-7099. Again, 609-272-7099. And we have to give a shoutout to Teresa Hodges, who asked a question she called in. She asked a question. She wanted to know about the solar, eclipse that we had a couple of Saturdays ago. She wanted to know what would happen if you flew through totality on a plane. What would it look like here? And I actually feel like it would be pretty similar to being on the ground. That was my initial thought. I don't know if you guys have. Anything different to add to that. Definitely be darker, but I think you'd still be able to see kind of maybe the sky around you a little. Matt Holiner: Bit better because you can have a. Joe Martucci: Better field of vision. Sean, looks like you might have something cooking on it. Sean Sublette: There was a picture going round the interwebs after the 2017 eclipse where somebody took a picture of the eclipse from an airplane. And it looked pretty cool. But it kind of looks very similar. Just big black circle up in the sky. Matt Holiner: Yeah. Because in the plane, you are still flying into the shadow. It's being cast on the Earth. So it would be a similar effect. It would get darker. If you're flying, even you're not on the ground, you're going to be flying in the shadow. So it would get darker around. But I think the other key thing that people, I think, got a little Cherried away on with the annular eclipse versus the total eclipse, that 10% 90% of the sun being covered versus 100% makes a big difference. So, again, I think it would have been a little bit underwhelming if you were in the and or if it might gotten a little bit darker. But if you want the dramatic change, it's the total eclipse. And that's why I'm so excited for April. And that's the one to get real excited about, folks, and get in the path of totality. It is so worth it. I saw it in 2017, and I'm doing it again this year. I cannot wait. Joe Martucci: I'm just reading an article by, I believe this is KXAN, that is in Austin, Texas. They actually composed a list of flights that will be in the air in totality on the eclipse day on April. Eigth ah, 2024. So if you're interested, you can buy your Southwest flights now. I won't read them all, but I'll read how about three of them here? There's a Dallas Love to Pittsburgh at 12:45 p.m. Central time. That's when it leaves Dallas. Then we have a St. Louis at. 01:20 p.m. Central time. Going to Houston? Hobby Airport. And then, there's also one from Milwaukee at 100 and 05:00 p.m. Central going to Dallas that afternoon. So book your flights now if you want to hop on. Or you can also go on. In 2017, they had a cruise ship, a boat that went through Totality. And somebody have to remind me who sang Total Eclipse of the Heart. Sean Sublette: It would be Bonnie Tyler. Joe Martucci: Thank you, Sean. I figured Sean would know who it was. Bonnie Tyler. Yeah. So maybe she, I wonder if. Matt Holiner: She's going redo that. Joe Martucci: Hopefully she will redo that. We'll, see. Matt Holiner: Maybe we can get on that one. Joe Martucci: Maybe we'll have her on the podcast. That would be cool. That would be really cool. Actually. Bonnie, if you're listening, let us know. We would love to have you talk about that. Hope you guys have a great week. We'll be back with you next Monday, and we're going to talk about tips to prepare older loved ones in cases of natural disasters or extreme weather with Dr. Lauren Sutherland from the Ohio State University. We have plenty of more episodes to come after that. You can check that out on your favorite news website or wherever you get your podcast. Take care. Bye.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

When it's fall, leaf colors change from green to vibrant shades of red, orange, and yellow. But why does that happen? Paul James, a gardener from Tulsa, Oklahoma known as "The Gardener Guy," and the former host of "Gardening by the Yard" on HGTV explains what happens when the amount of sunlight decreases and temperatures change. He also discusses the variation in fall foliage in different tree species and where you can see some of the best color. We want to hear from you! Have a question for the meteorologists? Call 609-272-7099 and leave a message. You might hear your question and get an answer on a future episode! You can also email questions or comments to podcasts@lee.net. About the Across the Sky podcast The weekly weather podcast is hosted on a rotation by the Lee Weather team: Matt Holiner of Lee Enterprises' Midwest group in Chicago, Kirsten Lang of the Tulsa World in Oklahoma, Joe Martucci of the Press of Atlantic City, N.J., and Sean Sublette of the Richmond Times-Dispatch in Virginia. Episode transcript Note: The following transcript was created by Headliner and may contain misspellings and other inaccuracies as it was generated automatically: Kirsten Lang: Welcome to the across the sky podcast, a weather, climate, and science focused podcast for a general audience. We are so glad that you're here with us today. I'm Meteorologist Kirsten Lang, and I'm joined by my fellow colleagues Matt Holiner in Chicago, Sean Sublette in Richmond, and Joe Martucci in Atlantic City. And together we make up the Across the Sky weather team from Lee Enterprises. Lee is a publication company with over 70 properties in cities across the United States. We're talking today with Paul James about fall foliage and those changing colors. And the interview with him is great. I love listening to what he has to say about that. He's very knowledgeable in the entire subject. Matt Holiner: Well, I brought it up in our top Ten Things to know about Fall episode. One of the reasons I like fall so much is because of the fall foliage, which was disappointing growing up in San Antonio. But once I left San Antonio and moved to places like Richmond, Virginia and Cincinnati, Ohio, and now that I'm in Chicago, oh, man, just some beautiful color. And I've been up in the Northeast in October and seen the beautiful fall color there. So if you live in a place that doesn't have good fall color, make it a trip sometime to go to some place that does, because it is one of the joys of fall, for sure. So it was good to chat with Paul all about it. Joe Martucci: And as Paul said, come to New Jersey for fall foliage. And we'll hear about that, in the pod. Sean Sublette: Yes, this pod apparently was brought to you by the state of New Jersey, New Jersey, and you perfect together. Just ask. I like hey, I like my colors here in the Commonwealth of Virginia. We get those beautiful Fruity Pebbles colors along Skyline Drive and the Blue Ridge Parkway. And we're getting very close to peak here, in the mountains of Virginia. But the other thing I liked about this, about Paul was so many times we're asked as M meteorologists, well, what. Makes for good fall color? And he's. Like, okay, good. I feel a lot better now. Kirsten Lang: All right. And with that, let's get onto our interview with Paul James. Kirsten Lang: Well, today we have on Paul James, an American gardener who may be best known as the gardener guy from his long running show on HGTV Gardening by the Yard. He now lives in Tulsa, Oklahoma, semi-retired, but that's how I got to know him. And he works for Southwood Garden Center, where he continues to educate the public about all things that are related to gardening, flowers, yards, and trees. And that's where we're going to pick up with him today, is the science behind the changing colors and all things fall. So, Paul, welcome on. We are so happy to have you today. Paul James: Thank you. I'm thrilled to be know we wanted. Kirsten Lang: To talk a little bit. This is very timely of course, we wanted to talk a little bit about the science behind changing leaves. So I kind of wanted to just jump in with the broad question, as to why it is that a leaf actually changes its color. And why do you see some yellows, and then you see some orange and some red? Why do they all, vary in colors when they change? Paul James: It all has to do with pigments. They are chemicals that are in the leaves. And what we see primarily throughout the growing season is an abundance of chlorophyll in leaves, which is a pigment that makes them green. But when that chlorophyll production is shut off, and we get into that in a moment, when that's shut off, then the other pigments that are there begin to show themselves. So you have keratinoids is a type of pigment, and those are responsible for orange and yellow. You have xanthaphils that will give you they're not quite as colorful, but they'll still give you some color. And then the anthocyanins, which give you the beautiful reds, sometimes even purplish colors. So that's what happens. The chlorophyll, which is there in abundance, gets shut off and all those other pigments have an opportunity to really show themselves. Joe Martucci: So Paul and Joe here. So I guess what you're saying is the chlorophyll, right? It's the dominant, I guess, pigment, you could say. And why is that? Paul James: It's the dominant pigment throughout the growing season by virtue of photosynthesis. Photosynthesis, where plants basically, leaves are eating photons from the sun and producing that abundance of chlorophyll. So that's why virtually all plants that we're familiar with have green leaves throughout the growing season. Joe Martucci: M, but just to follow up on that, right, so photosynthesis, then you're saying, is the king above. All right, so whatever's happening with the photosynthesis is number one. But I guess I'm trying to dig out maybe I'm getting too deep here. But why is that the primary thing? Why isn't it just a different kind of pigment that's primary? Paul James: Because that's the pigment that is responsible for growth and producing energy and helping the plants survive. Yeah, got it. Joe Martucci: Ah, comes with the territory. Paul James: Yes. Joe Martucci: Got you. Okay, cool. Sean Sublette: Yeah, and I get that, on my tennis shoes all the time when I'm cutting grass as well, with all that chlorophyll on the tennis shoes. Sean Sublette: another question for you about the changing leaves. My understanding is that as the nights get longer, we have longer bits of nighttime. That's kind of the key or the trigger for most plants or most of the, trees to say, okay, well, it's time to shut down for this season. But what other kinds of phenomenon out there, whether it's weather, drought, heat, anything like that, can affect how the leaves look or when they actually change by. Paul James: A few weeks here or there in the botanical world, we actually explain it in the reverse. We say that days get shorter, rather than the nights get longer. So as the days get shorter, that triggers a chemical response in the trees, wherein the little I don't want to get too technical either, but it's called a pettyol. You got the leaf and then you've got this little stem, that's known as a pettyol and that's attached to the main branch or limb of the tree. So when those days get shorter, that triggers what's known as the obscision layer, which is where that Petio connects to the main part of the tree. It triggers it to just shut off and that prevents any additional chlorophyll production. So the chlorophyll disappears and all those other pigments rise to the surface. Now, there's a gazillion different variables here. It can be somewhat challenging to, actually, there's not a ton of research to substantiate a lot of the claims, such as to what extent does weather play a part? Are, temperatures really that critical to the change? Is moisture level in the soil that critical a factor? I think you have to look at it in its entirety. I think all of these conditions have an effect on m our fall color, whether it's going to be spectacular or ho. but without a doubt, first and foremost, the most important consideration is genetics. Because if the tree does not have the genetics in it, if it's not hardwired to produce good fall color, then it's not going to well, one more. Sean Sublette: Thing, ah, about those other environmental things. Because I've been working in weather for 30 years, I hear the same thing, like, oh, this obviously affects it and this obviously affects it. I'm like, that's not the way I understand it. I hear there's a bunch of stuff in there that kind of is all wibbly wobbly timey whimy, as they say in Doctor Who. but is it fair to say if a tree is stressed, whether it is drought or maybe overly wet, that might, force it to kind of change a little earlier? Or is that not just fair to say at all? Paul James: I'd say it's likely. But again, despite the enormous interest in fall color, and by the way, the United States has some of the best fall color anywhere on the planet. Despite the interest in it, the level of research that's been done is really kind of lacking. It's almost too bad, because I don't think it would be that difficult to do experiments that would help us understand better why some years are better than others. It just hasn't been done to any great degree. Matt Holiner: I guess what also complicates things is all the different species of trees out there and how they are going to respond differently to drought conditions or excessive rain. Because I know growing up in San Antonio and there's a good chunk of Texas, until you get in maybe the far northern parts of Texas, fall color is not really a thing. You go from green to brown, you don't get all those beautiful shades of yellow and orange. So is there anything about specific species of trees that are just well known for their vivid fall colors? Are there some trees that are just extra special when it comes to fall color? Paul James: To use a San Antonio example, for instance, live oaks don't really have a whole lot of that pigmentation that I was talking about. They have very little. Whereas the red oaks that are abundant in my part of the country are loaded with those pigments. So, yes, even within a particular genus, be it oaks, there can be a tremendous amount of variability in fall color. Kirsten Lang: Okay, so just paul, where have you seen, in your opinion, the most beautiful color here in the country? Paul James: New Jersey. I have a particular favorite. Kirsten Lang: Jersey. Paul James: Jersey has great fall color. Joe Martucci: See, I wasn't. Paul James: No, are you kidding? It's the garden state. Joe Martucci: Of course. Paul James: I've seen spectacular examples all over the country, particularly the northeast, also the Carolinas and throughout much of the Midwest. But one of my favorite single images of fall color has to be the quaking aspens in Colorado. I mean, to me, when you see those enormous groves of aspens and they're ablaze in it's just it's astounding to. Kirsten Lang: Me, yeah, it is beautiful. I lived in Colorado for a couple years, and you better believe, on my days off, I made sure I was going up there and hiking and seeing some of that, because it was beautiful. It was beautiful. Okay, well, we're going to take a short break, and we'll be back after, the break here with Paul James. Kirsten Lang: All right, we are back with Paul James. Paul, we were talking all about, fall colors, how vibrant they are, in some spots of the country, and then, of course, the contributing, factors to making maybe one season better, than another due to soil moisture, drought. but the other thing, too, that, like I said, it may be an obvious answer, but in case someone's listening and just curious, can you explain why it is that the peak of fall foliage will start north and then just filtrate south through the country throughout the months of October, November? Paul James: Well, there again, that's, changes in day length, but that's where you almost have to conclude that temperature is playing a role as well, because it's starting to get cooler sooner in the Northeast, typically. And you see that progression from the north to the south and the changes in the know. The drought issue, though, is one that I think is interesting. It's pretty clear to me that during seasons where we've had considerable drought, that we have less spectacular fall color. That's really anecdotal, but I'm sure that at some point, we'll figure it out on a more scientific level. But I've witnessed that myself, and not just here, but throughout the country where even places in the Northeast occasionally have droughts. So that factor again, we go back to all those things. The other thing in the Northeast is that they also typically have a greater variety of hardwood trees than a lot of other parts of the country. So there's so much more species diversity that you'll typically see a lot more color. The ones that stand out, of course, are like maples. The red and maples is just unbelievable. It's so gorgeous. But there are also oaks that produce great reds. Around here we have the Chinese pistache, which can be the color can be highly variable due to its genetics. Some of them are much more colorful than others. One that I've always loved, that is kind of our own aspen is the ginkgo, which is, to me, also an underplanted tree. But the sad thing about the ginkgo is it gives you this enormously, beautiful yellow foliage, but then overnight, typically within one night, all the leaves drop. It's kind of sad. Matt Holiner: Yeah, Paul, I was going to actually ask about that because I imagine that it does vary by species. How long this process of the leaves changing and falling takes. Is there an average overall that you can look for? Is it really across the gamut? Like how long this process takes for each different species of trees? Paul James: Wind can certainly play a big role in that. I think we're going to be up to about 40, 45 miles an hour today. So I think, we may lose a few of the leaves that are just slowly beginning to not change color. But that obscision layer I talked about before is starting to weaken. But no, I don't know that. There's a timeline for each species. I'm not aware of one. It may exist, but I'm not aware of one. Matt Holiner: But I imagine that yeah, as that abssion layer gets a little bit weaker and weaker, it's more likely that a wind, it'll take less and less wind to actually blow them off of the tree so early on, it's going to really take maybe the 40, 45 miles per hour winds. But as you get later into the fall and those leaves are getting a little bit more wilted in the color, perhaps a little bit transitioning from that yellow to red, at least in some species, I guess it's more likely it's not going to take as much wind to blow it off. So that has a big, impact. Paul James: Sometimes it could be as calm as can be. And you'll still see the leaves, right? Yeah. Joe Martucci: Hey, Paul, I want to go back to something matt briefly touched on the first half. And as a lifelong Northerner, I still kind of fail. Paul James: Where are you? Joe Martucci: You know, some people tell me New Jersey. Every once in a while, they tell me I'm from New Jersey. Sean Sublette: I like to tease him that he sometimes lives in Central Jersey. Joe Martucci: Well, that's another story. Right? Paul knows about Central Jersey because his son went to Princeton smack dab in Central Jersey. I mean, he's pretty much an expert on this. Paul James: Lawrence Township. Elizabeth. Yeah, I know the area well. Joe Martucci: I grew up in the town next to Elizabeth Union, New Jersey, right down Broad, street over there. But anyway, maybe I'm asking this on behalf of all of our northern listeners, you know, down in the south, and I'm talking like, San Antonio or, maybe know there I've been down there in even January, and I still know leaves on the trees, or I've been there and they haven't. It just seems very finicky down, like far down south to me. How does that process work? Because obviously you're not getting the temperatures that you're getting up in the north, and you still have longer days as you go into October and November compared to places up north. So what determines the foliage process there? And when can those or do those leaves, if those leaves come off the trees? Paul James: I can't say with certainty, Joe. I can only conclude that, again, it's genetics. Weather certainly may play a role, but I would tend to think that genetics is the principal factor in those, Joe Martucci: Just because I feel like here in New Jersey and again, I'm not just saying New Jersey because I'm from New Jersey, but in the northeast. By about Christmas, these leaves are off the and then but in some places, I know when I've gone south, they're not off the trees. By maybe, you know, like you said, probably genetics. I don't know. I'm just asking the question. I'm genuinely curious, so I appreciate the answer. Paul James: We have years where on oaks in particular around here, where the leaves remain for months and months, well past what you would ordinarily expect to be the drop time. To me, that suggests that weather plays a role. I just don't know what that role truly is. What's particularly bad is when a lot of the trees hold their leaves for a longer period of time, and then we have an ice storm. Joe Martucci: Yeah, those early season ice storms are very impactful. Sure. Paul James: Yeah. The weight on those trees is just enormous. Joe Martucci: I mean, I'll even share something. We had, Superstorm Sandy come through in October 29 of 2012. As you could probably imagine, that's pretty close to peak foliage here. And the amount of just leaves I remember the day after it hit or two days after walking on my street, and it was just covered in leaves because everything got ripped off with the wind that we had gusts in the for hours on end. Paul James: Yes. The yeti brother. Joe Martucci: I knew I liked it. Paul. I mean New Jersey. We got the Yeti mugs. Life's good. Sean Sublette: Everybody loves the yeti mug. For sure. Paul James: they should be sponsoring the Dang podcast. Joe Martucci: Hey, Yeti, if you're listening, listen, we're all big fans here. And all the people who have New Jersey ties have the Yeti mug, including Sean. Sean Sublette: That's where I got it. I got it when I was in Jersey and it's lasted this. Joe Martucci: Know, they do say what Trenton makes the world takes Trenton being right next to yeah, I've seen that. It's a it's a very cool bridge, but I'll digress. I don't want to bore our listeners with Trenton, New Jersey. Kirsten Lang: This has turned into a Jersey pod, is what this has turned. Paul James: It. I like know there are places throughout the world where there is no fall color. I mean, if you've ever been to England in the fall, you will rarely see any fall color. Joe Martucci: Really? Paul James: in fact, one of the plants this is true one of the plants that is intentionally planted at the base of trees to provide fall color is poison ivy. Because it does produce spectacular fall color. Kirsten Lang: Really? Joe Martucci: I guess it better be good for something. Paul James: So what color does poison ivy turn magenta? It's really pretty. Wow. Kirsten Lang: Really? Even here? Paul James: Yes. Kirsten Lang: Really? Sean Sublette: Yes. Kirsten Lang: That's a dead giveaway because I've always gone by the leaves of three. Let it be or whatever it is. But if it's just turning magenta, well, then that's her giveaway not to touch it. Paul James: it's quite beautiful. I mean, if you're itching to plant it. Go ahead. Joe Martucci: I see what you did there. Kirsten Lang: Pun intended. Paul James: Sorry, there aren't that many gardening joke opportunities. Kirsten Lang: I want to ask a little bit. This is not quite as much fall foliage. That word always trips me up, but fall foliage related. But we talked once about leaf scorching here, and with overnight lows this happened when was it? Last summer. Overnight lows in particular were just so warm, and they were staying above 80 degrees here in Tulsa, and we were seeing leaf scorching that was happening. Can you explain a little bit about that and if that would impact the fall color in the coming seasons? Paul James: Yeah, the scorching can be the result of a couple of things. First of all, just intense sunlight can cause scorching. But what you're referring to is when our overnight temperatures at 11:00 at night, it's still the 90s. That can be devastating for plants because they need a chance to cool off at night. Cellular growth in plants actually takes place at night, so they need an opportunity to rest and chill, so that that cellular growth can take place. when it's that warm, it just doesn't happen. And a lot of people don't understand that. And there's nothing you can do about it, unfortunately. But, it can do a number on plants. We have a lot of plants here that are killed as a direct result of overnight temperatures being excessively warm. And it's really a drag to be out on the patio at 11:00 at night when it's 90 degrees. Kirsten Lang: I know. It's not like that today, though, in Tulsa, no, feels great. Did that, have any effect then, on the color that following fall? Paul James: It would almost certainly have to, simply because it is causing a disruption in cellular activity. So things won't be normal with that plant, and it could take it a full year to recover, if it recovers at all. So, yeah, I would think that would have a, negative impact on its ability to produce good but fall color. Matt Holiner: And Paul for people who have, trees in their yard, and they want to get the best color out of them possible. Have you come across any researcher in your years of gardening? Things people can do to help care for the trees, to perhaps give them a little bit of a boost to help that fall color a little bit? Paul James: No. Joe Martucci: We love being honest here. Kirsten Lang: Poison ivy. Poison ivy. Paul James: Maintaining good health in the tree means you're going to have to water routinely unless rains do the job for you. Fertilization is another component that is important to maintain good cellular growth, not disturbing the root system. Roots are key. All those things are going to combine to produce a healthier tree. And a healthier tree is more likely to do what you want it to do in fall, and they may produce that great color. Matt Holiner: I've heard some, talk about putting vitamins in your trees. Like they're things that you can be inserted around the base of the tree that supposedly gives them a boost. In addition to fertilizer, this was something that was occurring in San Antonio when I was growing up, how it improves the health of the trees. These, like, vitamin supplements for trees. Do you know anything about that? And does that really have an impact, or is that just more one of those things, like just something to get money out of people's hands? Paul James: Vitamins, I would suggest, are pure nonsense. But there is a fungus, a beneficial fungus. When gardeners hear the term fungus, they usually think, oh, no, it's terrible. No, there's some very beneficial fungi out there, in particular the mycorrhiza, of which there are numerous strains. But mycorrhiza are essential to plant growth and can really if you add mycorrhiza to your soil, it can go a long way toward helping any plant that grows, whether it's a tree or shrub or flowers. And what that is, it's a fungus that attaches itself to the roots and enables it's a symbiotic relationship. It helps the roots absorb nutrients more effectively. The vitamins are snake oil. Matt Holiner: That's good to know. One less thing to spend money on. I'm okay with that. Paul James: Yeah. Kirsten Lang: Well, Paul, thanks for joining us, today. We had a great time talking with you about leaves and about Jersey, because we got a lot of that in today. So thanks so much for being on. We really appreciated it. Paul James: I, thank you so much. This was a lot of. Kirsten Lang: Right. Paul James, you know, had so much information to give us just on the science behind changing leaves, how weather may or may not contribute to that, as well. But I agree with he's and I know Joe, you're going to say that he favored Jersey, but he did when we asked him the question, he did say what what was his favorite place? Joe Martucci: Colorado. Kirsten Lang: Colorado. I know. And it's so pretty out there. It really is. Joe Martucci: During the is it is. I just think in Colorado, right? Isn't it like mostly the yellow? Like there's not like a lot of oranges and reds, right? Isn't it mostly yellow out there? Kirsten Lang: There's not a lot of reds. I'm m with mainly I think those yellows from the aspens is what. Sean Sublette: You that's where my brain immediately goes is to the yellow gold aspens. Joe Martucci: Yeah. Which is nice. Kirsten Lang: Joe's getting defensive. Joe Martucci: I'll just stop it. It's nice. It's nice. Matt Holiner: I think one of my big takeaways is know, there's still a lot we don't know. There needs to be more research, especially as the climate is changing now we're seeing that temperatures aren't as cold as they used to be in the fall and we're experiencing more excessive rain events and drought events. And how do different species of trees respond to that? Because it seems to be not only different by region, but even the species of trees in those regions are impacted differently. So it's just an area that needs a lot more research. And again, it's one of those things that everybody talks about fall color and there's so much interest in it, but there's still a lot we don't know. So we look forward in the years to come to learning more and understanding more. Kirsten Lang: All right, and so what we've got coming up, next know, just kind of staying on this whole topic of seasons. We're going to talk a little bit about the winter weather outlook and what you can expect for the cold months coming up. So that's coming up next week. And Joe, if anybody wants to contact us and ask us questions, we would love to answer them. Joe, can you give them that contact information? Joe Martucci: Totally. So you can drop us a voicemail at 609-272-7099. That's 609-272-7099. And in the break offline, Matt was telling us that his mom is listening to the podcast. So hello to, I don't know, Renee. Matt Holiner: Renee. Joe Martucci: Renee. So hello to Renee. So, Renee, if you're listening and you want to give us a call 609-272-7099. It doesn't have to be Renee, it can be anybody. But we will. Sean Sublette: By the way, Renee, Matt is doing just the best job. We're so proud of him. Joe Martucci: Yes, we are. Matt Holiner: Thanks every day. Kirsten Lang: Such a smart kid. You did great. Is there an email too, Joe, in case someone feels like they want to email instead? Joe Martucci: Yeah, sure. That would be, podcasts@lee.net again. Podcasts, at lee L-E-E net. Kirsten Lang: Well, guys, thanks for joining us this week on across the sky. We loved having you, and we hope to see you back here next week.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

As the saying goes, history often repeats itself. Could that also hold true when looking at the current state of the climate and where we may be heading? On this episode, the team talks with Dr. Michael Mann, the director of the University of Pennsylvania Center for Science, Sustainability, and the Media and one of the world's leading experts on climate change. They discuss his new book, “Our Fragile Moment,” that examines Earth's climate history. Mann explains why the climate change we're currently experiencing is unique, why the next decade is so critical to our future climate, and what could happen to life on Earth if no action is taken. We want to hear from you! Have a question for the meteorologists? Call 609-272-7099 and leave a message. You might hear your question and get an answer on a future episode! You can also email questions or comments to podcasts@lee.net. About the Across the Sky podcast The weekly weather podcast is hosted on a rotation by the Lee Weather team: Matt Holiner of Lee Enterprises' Midwest group in Chicago, Kirsten Lang of the Tulsa World in Oklahoma, Joe Martucci of the Press of Atlantic City, N.J., and Sean Sublette of the Richmond Times-Dispatch in Virginia. Episode transcript Note: The following transcript was created by Headliner and may contain misspellings and other inaccuracies as it was generated automatically: Sean Sublette: Hello once again, everybody. I'm, meteorologist Sean Sublette, and welcome to Across the Sky, our national Lee Enterprises weather podcast. Lee Enterprises has print and digital operations in more than 70 locations across the country, including in my home base in Richmond, Virginia. I'm joined by my colleagues from across the sky, Matt Holiner in Chicago, and Joe Martucci at the Jersey Shore. Kirsten Lang is out this week. Our very special guest this week is Dr. Michael Mann, director of the University of Pennsylvania Center for Science, Sustainability, and the Media, and the Presidential Distinguished Professor of Earth and Environmental Science. His latest book came out a couple of weeks ago called Our Fragile Moment. It goes through Earth's climate history to illustrate how we know what the current warming climate is without precedent in Earth's history. There is so much good stuff in this book. I could go on and on, but I really like the way he goes into paleo climate and helping us understand why we are at this moment in time and why he calls it Our Fragile Moment. And as a quick aside, in the book, he kind of alludes to, the police, the band The Police, and the, extinction of the dinosaurs and walking in your footsteps. So those of us of a certain age who remember that a good part of, you know, sting was the lead man of the police, and, Fragile was another song that Sting wrote. So this all kind of ties back into me. Here I am showing my age. but, guys, this is such a great conversation. What did you kind of take out of this? Joe Martucci: I think, you know, and just take a step back. I mean, Mike Mann is, I would say, one of the people who really put climate science on the map to the general public. So this is really a big interview that we have here. And, when you're listening, sometimes we're getting into the weeds, sometimes it's big philosophical questions. In fact, at the end, we talk about his thoughts on where our position as the human race is in the universe just by writing this book. So, it was a nice interview, and good to be with, Mike here. Matt Holiner: Yes, there are few people that are a bigger expert on climate change than Mike Mann. And so, yeah, we're honored to have him on the podcast. And what I like is how he talks about paleo climate, which is something that's starting to get a little bit of buzz now. I think everybody's accepted that, okay, the climate is changing now, but hasn't it changed in the past? And he does dive into that. Yes, it has changed, but what he points out is the change that we're undergoing right now is unique, and he. Joe Martucci: Points out why that is. Matt Holiner: And I really liked his discussion of that. Sean Sublette: Yeah, there is so much good stuff. So let's get right to it and start up with our interview with Dr. Michael Mann. Mike Mann, it is so good to have you on the across the sky podcast. Dr. Michael Mann writes a new book about climate change called ‘Our Fragile Moment' Sean Sublette: I want to jump right into this on this book, Our Fragile Moment. This is the 6th book. What I loved about this one is that it goes a lot deeper into understanding paleo climatology. For us real science geeks out there, it really gets into depth about how we know how we got to this fragile moment. So I wanted to start on the big picture. What motivated you to write this book now? Dr. Michael Mann: Yeah. Thanks, Sean. It's great to be with all of you. All three of you know, it's interesting, this is sort of where I got my start as, a climate scientist, Paleo Climate, the hockey stick curve that my co authors and I published. it's hard to believe now, but it's, two and a half decades ago, that graph became sort of this iconic symbol, in the climate change debate. And that's really how I sort of entered the fray. And so now, two and a half decades later, I decided, well, let's do a deeper dive, because the hockey stick only went back a thousand years. That's really shallow time, as we say in Paleo climate. We've got four plus billion years of Earth history to look at and let's see what we can learn from it. And so it's sort of a return to my roots, in a sense. I hadn't really written a book about paleo climate, even though it's where I started as a scientist. And there's another sort of driving force here as well, which, relates to my last book, The New Climate War, which is about sort of the challenges we face now as climate denial becomes almost untenable, because we can all sort of see the impacts of climate change playing out. Bad actors are using misinformation to delay transition off fossil fuels Dr. Michael Mann: But there are other tactics that bad actors are using to sort of delay the transition off fossil fuels. and one of them, ironically, is doom mongering. If they can convince us that it's too late to do anything about the problem, then why bother? And so I was seeing Paleo Climate, something that I hold dear. I was seeing paleo climate science. Weaponized. Now in the same way that climate deniers used to weaponize misinformation. I was seeing climate doomers weaponizing misinformation about paleo climate to convince us it's too late, that we're experiencing runaway warming. We are going to it's yet, another mass, extinction that we've set off that's unstoppable and we will all be gone in less than ten years. There were players out there, serious protagonists who have pretty large followings, who have been spreading that sort of misinformation. So I decided, let's reclaim paleo climate. Let's look at what the science actually says. And that was the purpose of the book initially, was to address some of those misconceptions that have been used to feed climate doomism. But in the process, I realized, well, no, there's a whole lot more to talk about. there are all sorts of lessons in 4 billion plus years of Earth history. Let's see what we can learn from it for sure. Sean Sublette: Before I turn it over to the other guys for questions, I want to talk a little bit more about that doomism concept. It's important to walk a line between urgency and agency, as you like to talk about, but get away from doomism. I'd like to point out I was actually talking to a Rotary Club earlier today, that there has been progress. Right. clearly there needs to be more, but I like to point out we're starting to phase out coal globally. So there are things going how do you walk that line in terms of this is important, we need to stay on it, showing that there's progress and not succumbing to doomism for folks who are kind of depressed about it. Dr. Michael Mann: Yeah, no, absolutely. And there's sort of two pieces to it. First of all, there is just the science. Like, does the science say that we've triggered unstoppable warming and nothing we do to reduce carbon emissions is going to make a difference? No, it doesn't. And I wanted to make that very clear. And no, the paleo climate record doesn't support that. the best available science, in fact, tells us now that the planet stops warming up when we stop adding carbon pollution to the atmosphere. So there's this direct and immediate impact, on the climate of our efforts to act here. There's another piece to it, though, which is sort of there's another sort of component to doismism, which is like, we're not going to get our act together. And you could argue that remains to be seen, that's at least Arguable, the science doesn't support runaway warming. It doesn't support that sort of side of doomism. But will we garner the will to tackle this problem? Only the, future will tell. But it's interesting because you mentioned Rotary Club. There are lots of reasons for optimism. Lots of reasons. Things that we can look at, where we can say we're making real progress, rotarians have really taken a leadership role on this issue. I've spoken to some Rotary Clubs, groups in the past, and the Youth Climate movement, right. I mean, just, there is all of this energy. I see. know I teach at the University Of Pennsylvania. Climate is probably the number one issue to these students today, to these gen zers. Now, some of them fall victim to climate anxiety and climate doomism. So it's really important for them to understand the agency part of that urgency and agency duality. But yeah, the science certainly doesn't support the notion that we can't do something about the climate crisis. And the paleo climate record certainly doesn't support that either. Joe Martucci: Hey, this is Joe and just want to thank you so much for coming on again. We really appreciate it. And best of luck to you and your, book here, Our Fragile Moment. More journalists are reporting on extreme weather events linked to climate change Joe Martucci: My question does partially relate to what you said about gen zers. And some people do have climate anxiety. And if you're young, you're impressionable you're getting content from a variety of different sources, right? More than ever before, when we talk about extreme weather events and parlaying this into climate change. Right. I feel like in the past five years, maybe three years, we've seen a lot of this recently. And I think, personally, from my perspective, it's good. It's always a good teaching moment to talk about the facts and to forecast the climate science. How do you feel, though, about journalists reporting on this, as opposed to meteorologists who are experts in their field? There's many great journalists all across the country. We know that. But just like I don't know everything about maybe astronomy, right. Journals may not be completely in sync with what's happening with some of these events. Dr. Michael Mann: I don't know if you could kind. Joe Martucci: Of give us where you fall on this and how you would like to see these extreme weather events being parlayed into coverage as we go forward. Dr. Michael Mann: Thanks, Joe. It's a great question. And, you were talking about young folks, and, I used to think of myself as a young person, and then today I realized that David Lee Roth is 69 years old. I finally forced to accept the fact that I am now old. But you're right, there is this, energy and passion, among young folks. And another part of what's going on is we're seeing the impacts of climate change now play out in a profound way in the form of these extreme weather events. And there's always sort of this delicate balance in the way we cover those events. You'll often hear people say, well, you can never blame any one, weather event, on climate change. and the thinking there has evolved quite a bit. We have detection and attribution. We can characterize how likely an event was to occur in the absence of climate change and how likely it was to occur. When we consider climate change and when we see that there's a huge increase when an event is a thousand year event without climate change, and it's suddenly a ten year event when we include climate change, then we can say, hey, the fact that we saw this is probably because we've warmed up the planet and we've made these sorts of events, these extreme heat waves, heat domes that we've been reading about, wildfires floods, superstorms. So there's this scientific machinery now that allows us to sort of characterize the impact that climate change is having on these events. But you're right. When you have trained meteorologists and climate experts who are familiar with that science, they're able to sort of frame it that way. When you have just sort of say, political journalists, journalists from other fields covering, the science, it's a quandary. It's very complicated because they're hearing conflicting things. They're hearing this. You can never blame any one event on climate change, but now they know that there is a way to try to characterize the impact that climate change is having. So I think there's some confusion among in the journalistic community right now. you also sometimes see it overplayed, right, where, like, every extreme event was caused by climate change. We can't say that it's like a loading of the dice. Sixes are going to come up anyways. The fact that they're coming up so often is because we've loaded those dice, by the warming of the planet. So it is a complicated topic, and it's difficult to even trained climate and meteorology, specialists, even for us, it can be sort of challenging to explain the science and how we're able to quantify the impact climate change is having on these events. And that means that it often gets very confused in the public discourse. And at the same time, I would say that we are seeing the signal of climate change now emerge from the noise in the form of these extreme weather events. And it's a lost opportunity for certain if we don't explain that to the public. And so I personally think that there has been sort of a shift towards journalists in general, recognizing that there is a relationship and mentioning that when they talk about these events, not as often as we might like them to do, but we do see much more of that now. Climate change is part of the conversation here. And that's a real game changer, because that's where the rubber hits the road. When people realize, oh, man, it's these devastating fires. I have a friend who lost a house, or I have people, I know who got flooded, by that storm. When people start to know people who have been impacted or who have been impacted themselves, when people have their own climate story to tell, it really changes the whole conversation. And I think we're seeing that shift. Matt Holiner: Hey, Mike, it's Matt, and I think you're right about the climate change just becoming a term that everyone is familiar with now. But I think the term that people aren't as familiar with that. Matt Holiner: You mentioned your book is Paleo climate. So when you're talking about paleo climate, how far back are you looking and what are you looking at to determine what the climate was thousands or millions of years ago? Dr. Michael Mann: So it's a matter of perspective, right? If you ask my daughter what's paleo climate LBO is like, those winters when you were growing up, that's paleo climate, to me, those 1970s winters. so it's always a matter of perspective. One person's paleo climate is another person's sort of recent, climate history. I focused a lot of my early work on the last thousand years where we could pull together all sorts of types of information to try to reconstruct in some detail how the climate had changed. but there are ways to go much further back. There are sediment cores. We can look at ancient, oxygen isotopes and reconstruct what ocean temperatures were and what, sea, levels were. so there's all of this wealth of information. And so what paleo climate really means, technically, it's anything that predates the historical era of the last couple of centuries where we actually have thermometer measurements or rain gauges measurements or what have you. Anything farther back than that, where we have to turn to indirect measures of climate like tree rings or corals or ice that becomes paleo climate. And so 1000 years that's paleoclimate. But a million years is paleoclimate and a billion years is paleoclimate. And the stories are so different on these different timescales. And the puzzles are all different. And each of these intervals, there are all of these events in Earth's climate history that I talk about in the book, and we can learn something from each of them. Snowball Earth. Yes, the Earth was once entirely covered in ice and unpacking. That tells us a lot about the dynamics of the climate system. the faint early sun. The great Carl Sagan recognized that the Earth should have been frozen 4 billion years ago, when life first emerged in the oceans. And we know it wasn't because there was liquid water, there was life. And he realized because the sun was only about 70% as bright back then, the Earth should have been frozen, but it wasn't. What, what's the explanation? How come there was an even stronger greenhouse effect? And it turns out that, gets us into sort of the Gaia hypothesis because there's this remarkable story where as the sun gradually gets brighter and the Earth should have got hotter and hotter, but it didn't because the greenhouse effect got weaker over time. And in just such a way that the planet's climate, with some exceptions, like snowball Earth, stayed within habitable bounds, within bounds, that are habitable for life. Why is that? that's a really interesting puzzle. And it turns out life itself plays a role in stabilizing the climate, the global carbon cycle, the oxygenation of the atmosphere. There are all of these things that life itself did to change the composition of our atmosphere and to change the dynamics of the planet. And amazingly, life works in such a way as to help keep the climate, Earth's climate, habitable for life. And so that's an interesting puzzle. There's a lot to learn from that as well. And that's a good thing, right? There are stabilizing factors within the climate system that helps us. There is a certain amount of resilience. And that's one of the arguments against doomism that we're getting some help from the behavior of Earth's climate. There's a m safety margin. There's a margin, where we can perturb the climate, and it will stay within habitable bounds. The problem and what makes this such a fragile moment is we're now sort of at the edge of that envelope of stability. And if we continue with business as usual, we continue to pollute the atmosphere with carbon pollution, we will leave that moment behind. We, will depart from the sort of climate upon which all of this societal infrastructure was built to support now a global population of more than 8 billion people. And that's the real threat today. Sean Sublette: All right, so we're going to take a quick break. We'll come back with a couple more key questions with Michael Mann on the across the sky podcast. Stay with us. Michael Mann talks about the chemistry that helps us reconstruct past climate Sean Sublette: And we're back with Dr. Michael Mann on the across the sky podcast. The new book is our fragile moment. It is a very deep dive, as they say, into paleo climatology, and why this particular moment in time is so crucial in the climate going forward. Mike, your expertise, obviously, is in paleo climates and all these things that we use geologically to reconstruct climate. A lot of us are familiar with the ice cores. also, these oxygen isotopes, those for the weather folks, are not quite as complicated. But, what I'd like to talk about a little bit, explain some of the chemistry that's involved, that help us tell us what the climate was like. When we look at ocean sediment cores, these are things that aren't classic atmospheric proxies, right? These are much more in the rocks, geological proxies, those stalagmites, stalactites, those kinds of things. Can you talk about what are we doing with these things in terms of chemistry that tell us what we need to know? Dr. Michael Mann: Yeah, so it's amazing. There are these paleothermometers, we sometimes, call them, and you think about ice, right? Ice is frozen water. That's h 20. And so there's an O in there. There's oxygen, atoms, in that ice. And it turns out that the ratio of heavy to light isotopes of oxygen there are two main stable isotopes of oxygen oxygen 16 and oxygen 18. And the ratio, of them is a function of, the temperature. And when you form precipitation, when you condense water vapor into a droplet, there is what we call fractionation, where the heavy and the light isotopes behave differently during that process. That's true for evaporation, it's true for condensation. And so if you think about what's going on an ice core, you're drilling down in the ice, and that ice got there because it snowed at some point. And that snow was condensation of water vapor in the atmosphere. And that water vapor originally came from the evaporation from the ocean surface. And so at each stage, we have what's called a fractionation, where you're getting some sort of separation between the behavior of oxygen 16 and oxygen 18. The bottom line is, because of that, we can say things about ancient sea level from oxygen isotopes in sediment cores. We can say something about temperature from oxygen isotopes in sediment cores. We can say something about temperature from ice in ice cores on land. And it isn't just oxygen. We can look at carbon isotopes because there's carbon twelve and carbon 13, two different stable isotopes of carbon. And that allows us, for example, to figure out, what happened with carbon dioxide, and what happened with ocean acidification, how much CO2 there was, dissolved in the ocean. In fact, if you really want to get into it, we can estimate the PH of the ocean from other isotopes, boron isotopes. And I'm not going to get into the chemistry of that. But the bottom line is there are all of these amazing we call them proxy data. It's almost like nature provided us a way to sort of solve this puzzle of what happened in distant past. Almost like we were given, clues. It's like, well, I'm going to give you these isotopes, and if you're smart, and if you figure out the chemistry and the physics, you will be able to figure out what happened to sea level, what happened to ocean temperatures, what happened to the amount of ice, what happened to the acidity of the ocean. All of these things that are very relevant to how carbon pollution is impacting our environment today. Matt Holiner: And Mike, I think we've reached a point now where everybody acknowledges that the climate is changing. It took us a long time to get here, but I think we've reached that point. But what people are pointing out now is that, as you're talking about with paleo climate, the Earth's climate has changed many times over the years, warming and cooling. So what makes the climate change that we're experiencing now unique compared to the past? Dr. Michael Mann: Yeah, it's a great question, because we can certainly find times in the distant past when carbon dioxide levels, greenhouse gas levels, carbon dioxide being the main sort of greenhouse, gas that varies over time. They were higher than they are today, and global temperatures were warmer than they are today. During the Early Cretaceous Period, dinosaurs were wandering the polar regions of the planet. There was no ice on, the face of the Earth. We've seen Earth go from ice covered to ice free. So we know there are times when it's been much colder than today. And there are times when it's been considerably warmer than today. So then the question is, all right, well, then what makes climate change such a problem? Because even if we warm the planet, with carbon pollution, we're not going to get up to those Early Cretaceous levels. Well, actually, if we tried really hard, we could. If we extracted every bit of fossil fuels we could find, we could do that. Why? Because all of that carbon that was in the atmosphere slowly got deposited beneath the surface of the Earth in what we today call fossil fuels, ancient carbon, organic carbon that got buried in soils or shells that fell to the bottom of the ocean. Carbon that was in the atmosphere, got buried beneath the surface of the planet and came down from those very high early Cretaceous levels, over 100 million years. Due to those natural processes, carbon dioxide levels came down. Well, what we're doing now is we're taking all that carbon that got buried over 100 million years beneath the surface and we're putting it back into the atmosphere, but we're doing it a million times faster. We're taking carbon that was buried over 100 million years and we're putting it back up in the atmosphere over 100 years. And so I sometimes say if I was going to write a slogan for this, it would be, it's the rate, stupid. We all remember, it's the economy, stupid. I think we're old enough some of us are old enough to remember that was sort of a political sort of logo. Well, it's the rate, stupid. Which is to say it's not so much how warm the planet is or, what the CO2 levels are. It's what climate are you adapted to and how rapidly are you moving away from that climate. Because we have developed this massive societal infrastructure over a 6000 year period. Civilization, I talk about sort of the origins of civilization in Mesopotamia, 6000 years was the first true civilization. And it turns out global temperatures were remarkably stable for six, seven, 8000 years during which we developed all of this infrastructure that supports eight plus billion people. And we are dependent on the stability of that climate and its ability to continue to support that infrastructure which we've created. And if we're rapidly changing the climate and moving out of that window of variability during which we created civilization, that's a real threat. If the warming exceeds our adaptive capacity and it exceeds the adaptive capacity of other living things, life has learned to adapt to, climate changes that take place over tens of millions of years. That's pretty easy. Adapting to climate changes of similar magnitude that take place over tens of years, that's much more difficult. And again, what makes it so fragile, such a fragile moment for us is that we have leveraged the number of people who can live on this planet, what we call the carrying capacity of the planet. We've probably leveraged it by a factor of ten. Through our technology, through our infrastructure. We can support eight plus billion people because we have all of this infrastructure, agricultural infrastructure, engineering. But it's fragile, right? Because if the planet warms dramatically and that infrastructure no longer remains viable, then we can no longer support that elevated carrying capacity. Then we revert to the natural carrying capacity of the planet, which is maybe a billion people. And you think about that. The planet without our infrastructure, without our technology, probably can't support more than a billion people. We've got more than 8 billion people. That's why we can't afford to destabilize the infrastructure that supports human civilization today. And that's what dramatic warming, that's what unmitigated climate change will do. How does studying Paleo climatology make you see our place in the universe? Joe Martucci: John said, I had the last question here, so I'll wrap up with this. how does studying Paleo climatology and maybe even writing this book make you see our space or our race as humans in this universe? Because a lot of what you're talking about, you said Fragile Rights, the name of the book. How do you see our place in the universe, given what you've studied over the decade? Dr. Michael Mann: Thanks. It's a great question. and it's something I get into a little bit. Have some fun. At one point, we do some thought experiments. Some thought experiments, like, what if in one of the chapters, which is on, an episode of rapid warming, and by rapid warming, we mean, like, over 10,000 or 20,000 years rapid on geological timescales. Nothing like what we're doing today. But there was this period of relatively rapid warming, about 56 million years ago. We call it the PETM. Stands for the Paleocene eocene thermal maximum. It just rolls right off the tongue. And it was this period during which there was a massive injection of carbon dioxide into the system. Obviously, there weren't SUVs, and there weren't coal fired power plants. This was a natural input of volcanism through unusually intense volcanic eruptions, centered in Iceland, that tapped into a very carbon rich reservoir and put a very large amount of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere over a relatively short period of time. And so it turns out that you can ask the question, can we rule out the possibility that there was an intelligent civilization back then that went on this massive fossil fuel burning spree and basically extinguished themselves? And my good friend Gavin Schmidt, who's the director of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, has written a paper and has written some popular, essays about this idea because of the Silurian hypothesis. and it's basically imagine lizard people who existed 56 million. How can we rule out that that's what happened? And I grew up watching the land of the lost. And, Gavin, around the same time he was in Britain, and I think it was Dr who had a similar that's where the Silurian there were, like, these reptile beings, that basically destroyed their environment. And so it's a really interesting question. Can we rule that out? And in the process of trying to rule that out, it actually raises some really interesting questions about, what are the conditions for life? Do intelligent civilizations extinguish themselves naturally? this is sometimes called the Fermi paradox. it was something that Carl Sagan thought about if the universe is teeming. With life? How come we're not hearing from them? How come we're not getting radio signals? And it turns out you can look at all of the different how many planetary systems are there in the universe? You can sort of try to do the math and figure out how many intelligent civilizations you might expect there to be in the universe based on various assumptions. And it turns out the defining problem, all the uncertainty comes down to when intelligent civilizations emerge, how long do they persist for? Do they extinguish themselves? And that would be one explanation of Fermi's paradox. Obviously, it's very personal to us. We don't want to think that, we are on our own way to self caused extinction. So there's some deep questions there. When you look at Paleo Climate and you look at some of these past episodes, you can start to ask some larger questions that tap into these deeper philosophical questions about our place in the universe. is there life elsewhere in the universe? The thinking that you go through turns out to be very relevant to the thinking that you need to go through for, Know. And the punchline is, Adam. I'm going to draw a blank on his, so, he's a well known astrophysicist, and writes about the search for extraterrestrial life. Adam and I'm drawing a blank on his last name, which is very embarrassing. I'm, sure he'll watch this and be very upset at me. but, he actually came to Gavin because he was interested in the search for extraterrestrial life and asking some questions about climate change and climate change on other planets. and could that explain why we're not hearing from other civilizations? Because they cause climate change and they extinguish themselves. And, Adam Frank is his name, and he's a well known sort of, science communicator, astrophysics search for extraterrestrial, sort of continuing the legacy of Carl Sagan and the Planetary Society and the sorts of questions that they were asking. So he came to Gavin, who's a climate modeler, and know, I want to work on, know, figuring out if climate change could have been what caused these other potential civilizations elsewhere in the universe to extinguish themselves. And then Gavin says, how do we know that that didn't happen on Earth? And they go through this amazing sort of thought experiment, and it turns out it's hard at first blush to rule out that that's what happened. For example, the PETM. It takes quite a bit of work to convince yourself that it couldn't have been ancient lizard people that burned, fossil fuels. and so, yeah, so there's a lot you can learn from what are seemingly silly thought experiments that actually start to get at some pretty deep questions about us and our place in the universe. Sean Sublette: We know not all questions are silly. What plate tectonics has only been around for about 100 years or so. And everybody kind of thought, well, that was silly at the time. Dr. Michael Mann: Mike, we're going to stickers stop plate tectonics bumper stickers. Sean Sublette: Yeah, we're going to let you go. But, again, the book is our fragile moment. Social media is a mess nowadays, but where's the best place people can find you digitally and online? Dr. Michael Mann: Well, they can still find me on, what are we calling it this day? X. that's what it's called this week. But, I've sort of diversified. You can find me pretty much on all of the major social media platforms now. I'm still on Twitter. X, and, Instagram and mastodon and Blue, sky, and I'm forgetting threads. It's like, now we've got to be so diversified because we're no longer confident we can rely on the one that we were all relying on for so long. But, yeah, I'm out there and people can find me at WW Michaelman Net. So, yeah, it was great talking with you guys and I, hope to do so again. Sean Sublette: Mike, appreciate it so much. Take care. travel safely. Good luck promoting the book. and it's great. I mean, I've read it. It's just wonderful. And also, I will say this publicly. Thanks for the little shout out at the back, my friend. Dr. Michael Mann: Thank you, my friend. It was great talking with you guys. Sean Sublette: Those are some very deep answers, guys. where is our place in the universe and this concept of lizard people from 50 OD million years ago. and the things you will go down the road you will go down when you start doing these thought experiments. But for me, the importance here, I think what Mike said is the pace of the warming is without precedent. What we're doing is happening so fast, it is going to be difficult to adapt. Some things are going to adapt more easily than others. And that's why this moment in time is so particular. Yeah, it's been warmer in the past, but our civilization, which is increasingly global over these last 2000, 3000 years in particular, last couple of hundred years, where the population has just blossomed, really kind of dependent on the climate that we have out there now. Guys, what do you think? Joe, what did you kind of take away from? Joe Martucci: Well, you know, anytime we talk about our place in the really, I don't know, just really focused on the topic because it does make you think about in some ways, how small we are relative to everything. And not just even planet Earth and the spec of the universe, but also human life in the span of the Earth's long, long history. And like he also said a few minutes before that question, it's the rate of change of the warming that's unique. I say this a lot of times when I do public talks. I said, listen, yeah, we've been warmer than we've been before, we've been colder than we've been before. But barring like an asteroid or some cataclysmic event, this is the only time we're really changing at such a rate. and there's facts and forecasts, and then there's what to do or not to do about it. And that's where your beliefs come in. But there's no denying that the rate of change, a lot of this is significant and something we haven't seen really in the scope of human history. And beyond that, the Earth's history, again, minus the early millions, billion, two or four years, when the Earth was really trying to just get itself together, for lack of a better word. And in some of these asteroid or supervolcano events, it happened as well. Matt Holiner: I would say this was a humbling conversation, because also at the end, when he was talking about why haven't we encountered other intelligent life? And then the comment that stood out to me is like, maybe it has existed, but because of their actions, resulted in their own extinction, and are we headed down that path? And is that why we haven't encountered intelligent life? And then, the other comment that he made is when he was talking about carrying capacity, and now the Earth has a population of 8 billion. But you take out our technology, and what we could see if we continue on this path, if the climate continues. To the rate the change that it's. Matt Holiner: Experiencing now, that carrying capacity could drop to a billion. And then you think, you think about going from a population of 8 billion people to 1 billion, 7 billion people disappearing. That makes the hair stand your, arms and to think about could we result in our own extinction by our actions? And when you hear that, you want to say, let's not make that mistake, let's do something about this. Because again, the other comment was it's the rate stupid? And he talks about, yes, climate has changed in the past. And that's what some people keep coming out. It's like, well, what's the big deal if the climate has changed the past? We're just going through another cycle, but it's never changed at this pace and. Joe Martucci: We can't keep up. Matt Holiner: He also talked about the planet has taken care of itself. When the sun became stronger, the greenhouse effect decreased. And so there has been that the Earth has all these protections in place to kind of keep the climate in balance. But we're breaking that. We're breaking these natural protections. That's why he calls it our fragile moment. Because if we continue at this pace, the Earth isn't going to be able to heal itself. And so we have to take action to make sure we don't lose 7 billion people. So, again, we don't want to talk about the doomism. So it's a fine balance, though, because we absolutely have to take action, but know that we can take action. This is not hopeless. We still have time to fix this. Problem, so let's get on it. Sean Sublette: Yeah, as he says, there is urgency, but there is also agency. So I think that that's the quote that I like from him, most of all. So as we look to some other episodes coming down the pike, a little bit less heady. coming up next week, we've got Paul James of HGTV. We're going to look at the science of changing leaves. We are thick into, the fall right now, the leaves changing from north to south across the country, and we're also working in the background to bring you a broader winter forecast. We're still turning a couple of knobs on that, but we're working on that. I'll be talking to Neil degrasse Tyson in a few weeks. We'll bring that to the podcast. also I've talked to a couple of colleagues, the fifth national climate assessments coming out, and we're going to say, well, what does that mean and why should we care? We'll answer those questions. we've got one more, Joe. you've got somebody coming in from Ohio State, right? Joe Martucci: Yeah, we do. That's coming up in a couple of weeks. That's for your, November 6 episode. We're speaking with Dr. Lawrence Sutherland, and it's tips prepare older loved ones in case of natural disasters or extreme weather. I've covered this topic a, number of times for the press of Atlantic City, where I'm based out of shout out to everybody listening Jersey, but talking about, some of the challenges our senior citizens are having when there are these kind of extreme weather events. so that should be really good. I'm looking forward to that one, too. And that one comes out on November. Sean Sublette: So we have got a lot of good stuff in the pipeline in the weeks ahead, but for now, we're going to close up shop. So for Joe Martucci at the Jersey Shore. Matt Hollner in Chicagoland. I'm meteorologist Sean Subletz at the Richmond Times dispatch. We'll talk with you next time. Thanks for listening to the across the sky podcast.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We all use weather forecasts to help get us through our days and plan ahead. The same is true for corporations. Whether it's for planning outdoor maintenance or business continuity, weather forecasts play an important role in day-to-day operations. Mark Elliot, the principal meteorologist for AT&T, has his hands full helping a major telecommunications company maintain operations in any conditions. Before joining AT&T, Elliot spent the first two decades of his career as an on-camera meteorologist at The Weather Channel. Though different, it turns out the two jobs have a lot in common. In this episode, Elliot shares stories about his time at The Weather Channel, discusses what he does in his current role for AT&T, and explains why meteorologists are becoming an essential part of more and more companies. We want to hear from you! Have a question for the meteorologists? Call 609-272-7099 and leave a message. You might hear your question and get an answer on a future episode! You can also email questions or comments to podcasts@lee.net. About the Across the Sky podcast The weekly weather podcast is hosted on a rotation by the Lee Weather team: Matt Holiner of Lee Enterprises' Midwest group in Chicago, Kirsten Lang of the Tulsa World in Oklahoma, Joe Martucci of the Press of Atlantic City, N.J., and Sean Sublette of the Richmond Times-Dispatch in Virginia. Episode transcript Note: The following transcript was created by Headliner and may contain misspellings and other inaccuracies as it was generated automatically: Joe Martucci: Welcome back, everybody, to another episode of, the Across the Sky Podcast, a Lee Enterprises podcast. We appreciate you listening, whether it's on your favorite podcast platform or on your favorite local news website. We are talking about the phone companies in weather. Believe it or not, phone companies hire meteorologists. And we thought there would be no better person to talk to than then Mark Elliot, who is the principal meteorologist for AT&T, of course, one of the country's biggest phone companies here. He's also been on the Weather Channel for nearly 20 years. You can still see him there on occasion. And join with me to interview him. We have Matt Holiner in the Midwest and Sean Sublette down in Richmond, Virginia. Kirsten Lang is out for today. Guys, how's it going? Matt Holiner: Going pretty good. Yeah. Matt Holiner: I really enjoyed this interview because I got to reconnect with Mark a little bit. I actually got a chance to work with him in my, brief summer internship at the Weather Channel in the summer of 2013. And, he was typically in the afternoons. I was most often in the mornings, but I got to work all the shifts, so I did get a chance to work with him there. It was good talking about the experience of being at the Weather Channel because it is just an amazing place if you're a meteorologist to work at. But also hearing why he made the shift from being at some would call it a dream job at the Weather Channel to working for At T, and the change that came with that. It was a really interesting conversation. Sean Sublette: Yeah, I like that as well. The things that he learned at the Weather Channel, how he was able to apply those and his new job and the rationale for making the jump and just trying to understand, well, why does AT&T need a meteorologist? And once you stop to think about all the hardware that's scattered all about the country and it's outside, then it all begins to add up. But, yeah, so he has a lot of interesting things to say about that. So it's a good episode. Joe Martucci: Yeah, good episode. We're excited to show you here. So let's dive into it. Mark Elliot is principal meteorologist at AT&T Joe Martucci: You're listening to Mark Elliot on the across the sky podcast. We are here with our special guest for today on the across the sky podcast. Mark Elliot, principal meteorologist at at and T, which we're going to talk plenty about. You may know him from the Weather Channel, where he has spent nearly 20 years in front of the camera talking to audiences all across the country. He's still doing some freelance work. Now, he is a graduate of Rutgers University, which I might just say is the best university on the planet. But we'll let other people decide that one. And got his master's of science at, Georgia Institute of Technology, also known as Georgia Tech. Mark, thanks for coming on the podcast. We appreciate it. Mark Elliot: My pleasure. Thanks for the invite, guys. Joe Martucci: Yeah, no, absolutely. We're looking forward to diving into everything. Corporate meteorology is a growing, exploding part of the field Joe Martucci: But I do want to ask this, because and I'm even thinking about this know, if I put my non weather hat on. Why would AT&T need a meteorologist? What are you doing there? I, know it's important work, but can you explain what's going on? Where did the motive to have a meteorologist at AT&T come? Mark Elliot: And, you know, even stepping back from, like, not necessarily anything specific to my current job at AT&T corporate meteorology is a growing, exploding part of the field. That these companies are realizing that it is a strategic advantage, it's a monetary advantage to have forecasters, to have meteorologists with experience that can talk about these complicated patterns, complicated science, and put it onto the company level, talking about how weather will directly affect them. It's slightly different from what you'd get from, the National Weather Service or from a National Weather Channel. It's more those places, while they have access to where the weather will be, don't necessarily have the same access to the company's internal data of where their stuff is, what's there, what's important, how are each one of those assets affected by the weather? And once you start thinking about it that way, it makes a lot of sense for companies big and small to have some sort of weather connector, weather service of some kind that is giving them information, and AT&T recognized that as well. Joe Martucci: How many people work? Are you the only meteorologist there? Do you have a team? How does that work? Mark Elliot: We're a small but mighty team. I'm not the only one, but, it's one hand or less that is, making up, the lot. We do a lot of work with just a small number of people. We're talking about United States, Mexico, areas around the world where there might be data connections under the ocean. Yeah. It's a global reach, as you can imagine, for a company with that name. Sean Sublette: Yeah, for sure. Mark, one of the things, and again, I don't want you to give away any kind of secrets or anything like that, because I think in our own minds, we can understand. Okay, well, anything from space weather, of course, affects communications, as well as heavy precipitation, or any other kind of thing that affects telecommunications. That's kind of where my mind is. And as you alluded to, this is becoming a growing field. We already know that this has happened a lot in the financial industry, in the energy industry over the last ten to 20 years. In particular, use that information to leverage your position against your competition. How does the weather affect a telecommunications company like AT&T? Sean Sublette: what other kinds of things, without you giving away too much, how does the weather affect a company like AT&T or any telecommunications company? over what I kind of mentioned. Mark Elliot: Yeah. And you're right. you're right and more right. Almost every type of extreme weather could have an extreme impact. And so it's our job to basically forecast the risk. It's not necessarily a weather forecast, it's a risk forecast. And then we have other teams that go out there, and they are trying to take that information and mitigate or minimize that risk as much as possible. So, first things first. It's about for these companies, companies big and small, that have corporate meteorology. It's about protecting the people, right? You want to make sure your people know what they're getting into day by day. So first on the list is people. Second is probably places the assets that are fixed and are out there, whether those are buildings, whether those are communication towers. In my case, any type of weather that could affect something sticking up into the air, whether that's a building or a tower or anything else. And obviously, you don't need me to tell you what that might be. Lightning, tornadoes, extreme wind, flooding, all really important to those fixed assets. And then there's mobile assets, things that are moving around. Whether it's company fleets, they need to know what they might be driving into. it's really far and wide, I would say. I think a lot of corporate meteorologists and AT&T included, we focus a lot on Tropics because they are such big players when they come into an area. But also wind in general, strong wind can have an outsized influence. Tornadoes, while really important, as we know, are really small scale. And so they often can be really troublesome and problematic and destructive in those local areas. But for a national scale, they might not be as important, right? It's all about perspective and what that individual company needs at the time. How do you handle the lightning situation with all these cell phone towers? Matt Holiner: And Mark, I'm curious about the lightning, because I would imagine the most common thing that you might have to deal with are just general thunderstorms. Not necessarily severe thunderstorms, but just regular thunderstorms that have lightning and all those cell phone towers. So what goes into the forecast? And, are there any special preparations to try and protect those towers ahead of time? And then what happens when those towers inevitably do get struck by lightning? How do you handle the lightning situation with all these cell phone towers sticking way up in the sky, certainly attracting some lightning, right? Mark Elliot: They're big, tall, pointy objects. And it's what we've always said, like, don't be the tallest object out in the field, and yet that's what towers are. That's what our buildings are. and so we use the same technology that any tall building would have. There is lightning, mitigation on top of these tall, pointy objects, just like the Empire State Building is struck multiple times a year, and yet the building is still there. A lot of these towers have lightning rods of some kind in order to ground them. So that the charge can flow through and not destroy everything. But there's also always all kinds of alerts that go off if things go wrong. And so then the tech teams can go back out there and figure out what went wrong and fix it up. Meteorologists are constantly monitoring the weather across the country Joe Martucci: So this sounds to me is this like a 24/7 kind of job where you guys are always looking out for what's happening across I'm assuming the whole country, right? Mark Elliot: The weather doesn't really stop right for that's true weekends and holidays and you know what you're getting into when you sign into this field. We are not really staffed 24/7, but we're also not staffed either. I mean, when it's a big event, we're going to be up watching it anyway. So we might as well be helping the company through it, kind of thing. US meteorologists, we get not excited, but we study this. We want to see what's happening when big weather happens. And so if we were going to be up watching it, we're going to be forecasting for it, kind of thing. If people in the business are interested enough in it, you better believe the meteorologists in the business are interested in it too. But what I will say is that a lot of our work happens very early. I'm not a morning person by nature. I don't know if you can see it in my eyes or hear it in my voice. But we start roughly 05:00 A.m. Every day in order to get the bulk of our forecasting work and risk analysis done before other decision makers get up and start making their plans because the weather affects those plans. And so my busiest time of the day is often that five to eight a M Eastern time frame. And yet the company doesn't work on those hours. And so there will still be meetings and special projects and all kinds of stuff for someone on the West Coast after their lunchtime and next thing you know it you've hours. You know, it's it's not a job that has fixed nine to fives. It's not an easy role to slide into if that's the goal. Are you doing longer term climate risk also as a company? Sean Sublette: So let me jump in next we talk about those short term threats, whether it's a, ah, winter storm, ice, snow, wind, lightning, tornadoes, hurricanes, flooding, all that stuff. But are you kind of evolving also into a longer term climate risk? Like, hey, we've got these assets on the coastline or near the coastline. Are we worried about those for 10, 15, 20 years? Are you doing kind of this longer term climate risk also? Mark Elliot: As a company, yes. As me, not as much. I'm involved in some of those discussions. But there's an entire other team that is looking at long term climate risk. In fact, there's some great partnerships with AT&T and argum National Labs putting out publicly available climate risk down to the location. So it's called Climar Climber Climmrr. And it's publicly available. It's from AT&T Labs, basically At T's Innovators and the Argon National Laboratory. And you can put in, an address if you have a building, if you have your home, and you want to know what the climate risk may be there, for that location in the years to come. We've made it available because we think that should be a public good, as AT&T made that choice to put that out there for everybody. And then, of course, we use that data both in short and long term ways. We can use it in the short term to be kind of an extra data point. If we're looking at flooding, like, will this cause flooding to our assets? Well, we can take one more piece of data. Know, you have the Ero from the Weather Prediction Center. You might have the flood risk from FEMA as part of your decision making, but maybe you also bring in the Argon National Laboratory. And it's saying in 50 years there's pretty much no risk here because of local elevation or because of small scale changes that might be even more fine tuned than your FEMA data. That can help us lower or raise even a current day's forecast of risk at a location. So we're using it. And then, of course, for long term site picking, if you had a choice of putting a new building here or here, and one of them is saying, this is going to be underwater in 20 years, and one is saying it's not. That's an added piece of data that you can start to use the data. Part of this is really important in the long run. Mark Elliot: Trying to communicate risk in Mexico was a challenge for me Matt Holiner: So, Mark, besides the early mornings and the occasional long hours, what would you say is the most challenging part of your job? Mark Elliot: Oh, challenging part. I mean, I didn't do a lot of international, forecasting at the Weather Channel. Right. It was very much us. Based. Trying to figure out the right way to communicate risk in Mexico was a challenge for me because I'm not a Spanish speaker. if you're doing forecasts internationally, you don't have the same kind of available data that you would be used to using if you were looking at a front approaching the US. Or coming through the US. Watching typhoons in the West Pacific was not really in my day to day, and now it, was, I'd argue, interesting and a new challenge because of it. Matt Holiner: And is there any part of the world that AT&T is not concerned about? Or do you literally have to look. Mark Elliot: Across the whole globe? Matt Holiner: Or is there some area that you can say, you know what, we can skip that part of the forecast. Mark Elliot: It's different. we care about it differently. I'm not spending a lot of time in, say, Central Europe, but we know those patterns influence what happens downstream, and eventually it comes to us anyway. So if you're not at least paying attention to where there's big pattern changes know, really life threatening weather. Communication is life saving. And so if we have the ability to help a community because of destructive weather, AT&T is probably going to be there in some way. And once our people are there, we're forecasting spot forecasts for wherever they are. So if the weather gets bad enough and our people are going to help, whether it's reestablished communication or whatever the case may be, we're also involved so that while they're there, they're getting spot forecasts from, us. Joe Martucci: Awesome. Well, we're going to take a brief break here and we'll come back on the other side with more from Mark Elliot on the across the sky podcast. Mark Elliot started at The Weather Channel right after graduating from Rutgers Joe Martucci: And we are back with the across the sky podcast hosted by the Lee Enterprises weather team. I'm here with Matt Holliner and Sean Sublick. Kirsten Lang could not be with us today. Mark Elliot is with us here. He is our guest for today principal, meteorologist at AT&T and longtime meteorologist at the Weather Channel. We'll dive into this a little bit, so, and correct me if I'm wrong, Mark, I think you started at The Weather Channel right after Rutgers. Is that true? Mark Elliot: It is, pretty rare. Joe Martucci: That's what I was going to get into, because from my perspective as a meteorologist, the Weather Channel is like the I just, it always feels like something you work towards for a while and you get that moment. I mean, it's great you started there right off the bat, but I have to ask, how did you do it? Mark Elliot: Yeah. So, it's a combination of really hard work and a little bit of luck. I mean, let's face it, it requires a little bit of both. Joe Martucci: Yeah. Mark Elliot: I will credit Rutgers as you should. Go ahead, Joe, jump in there. Joe Martucci: All right, we got an R. We got an. Mark Elliot: Yeah. Joe Martucci: Yeah. Mark Elliot: I will credit Rutgers and Rutgers meteorology for really giving me the opportunity to be able to be seen by the Weather Channel. So here's how this went in kind of a short form version. So at Rutgers, and I guess before and after I was a bit of an overachiever, I did the double major program at Rutgers, which meant that my electives were things like organic chemistry for fun. Joe Martucci: I'll tell you why, you know, as well as imark organic chemistry at Rutgers is not an easy class. I know a lot of people who took it and did not do so well on the first go around on that. So that's a toughie at Rutgers. Mark Elliot: Non a grades at Rutgers. I, mean, it wasn't too far down, but I had a, huge GPA, I had two different majors, and I did all of these internships while at Rutgers. At Rutgers sanctioned and helped organize. So I had a TV internship at News Twelve New Jersey. I had a National Weather Service internship at Mount Holly at the New Jersey office. I was doing research within, or at least data collection and analysis. I don't know if I'd really call it research, looking back on it, but for the Rutgers Pam site, so the photochemical assessment, monitoring. So I was getting into field work and figuring out what the big profilers did and what they meant and all this and that was all through Rutgers at the same time. The Rutgers Meteorology Club and kind of my year and right around my year, of being there were the first ones to really organize and start sending student groups to the American Meteorological Society conferences and the student conference in particular. So I saw a table at a conference for the Weather Channel for student internships, and I gave them my resume, which also had know, Weather Watcher, right? The Re weather watcher program, which is TV. It had radio experience from WRSU because I worked, on there and was doing their news team weather reports occasionally. So I had all this stuff on the resume, and I handed it into a summer internship, thinking like, oh, my gosh, ah, this is going to be so amazing. And I didn't even hear a no, right? And I didn't get a yes no, much less a yes. I heard nothing. And I'm like, well, I got nothing. And I'm about to graduate senior year. And I am internally, and rather externally, I think, also panicking. my friends were signing up for grad schools. They knew what they wanted to research. They were getting job offers. They were moving. And I was just applying to job after job after job and not even hearing no's, still nothing. And I applied to National Weather Service Puerto Rico. I was like, I'll learn Spanish. That's not what they wanted, right? But I was applying to anywhere because I liked all things weather. I didn't have a focus. I think that actually hurt me a little bit. I wasn't like, I'm only looking at tropical things. I'm going to go to grad school for tropical meteorology, and I'm going to work at CSU and do long range forecasting. There wasn't a goal like that because I just wanted to be in the field. I just wanted to do something weather. So I was about to graduate, and my in room dorm phone rang. and my roommate answered, thinking it was a joke or a prank or whatever, because somebody called saying they were from the Weather Channel. And once he realized it was real, he changed his tone a bit and got me the phone. And it was for a because I had Rutger's Radio, the WRSU experience, on my resume. it floated around the building for, I think, about a year and a half. And somebody was going on maternity leave. And they said, do you want this job? It starts in August. There is no moving expenses. There is no help finding a place to live. It goes from August to November. It is four days a week max. It is 35 hours a week max. There is no benefits. You cannot work at the month of December or else it triggers you to be full time and you're not allowed to be. So it's literally this, do you want it? And I said yes, I do. And so I went to the Weather Channel for a part time job in radio and stayed 18 years, is the long and short of it. Joe Martucci: Wow, that's incredible on a lot of fronts there. Because even still, even with the WRSU, which is great, I feel like, to get it, as I'm sure a wide pool of applicants, is a big testament to your skills and everything you've done. And obviously, you made a very long career out of it, being there for 20 years, and even still freelancing there now, what's it like working there? I've never been there. I know where it is, but I've never been there. When you're there, does it just feel like, special? Because for the people who are listening, for a lot of us meteorologists, you grew up watching The Weather Channel because you didn't really know anybody who was interested in weather growing up. That was the same for me. I knew nobody that was going to be a meteorologist in their career until I went to Rutgers. So when you get there, is it just like, wow, I made it? Is that how it feels? Mark Elliot: In many ways, at least I always did. I always got that thrill putting on the blue jacket, right? There was something about I didn't care what time it was when I went into the field, you put on that blue coat and you're walking down the hallway of a hotel with no power, and you're like, you got a strut, right? You got a different feel about it because everyone knows that brand. It's one of the most well and well respected brand. It wins the most respected news brand year after year after year after year. But away from that, in the building, it is very mission driven. But people you see on air, on air, because they have mission and purpose, and they're trying to communicate this science and keep people safe. You're soaking up so much weather knowledge communication knowledge Mark Elliot: They look at it, and I looked at it as someone listening right now, we could save their life if we give them the right info, if we give them the right information that they can use and react to the right way or not do the wrong thing, which I think is often more often the case. So that mission, and purpose was very apparent. Like, people knew why we were there. And then you're surrounded in a room of other meteorologists like you. How where else can you go where you have a severe weather question? You can go up to Dr. Forbes or you have a hurricane. that's coming up. And you can go to a director of the National Hurricane Center. You could just be like Rick first name, right? forget Dr. NAB. Joe Martucci: Dr. NAB, tell me what's up. Mark Elliot: What's with this question? That's awesome, having that kind of knowledge base. And then you have the people that we all know that have been there since we've all been watching, right, since it started in the early eighty s, more or less. And you can have a question for Jim about broadcast, or Mike Seidel about field work, or Kelly Cass name, the broadcaster, the longevity of the people there. And, the skill that comes from that is really impressive. And so you're just a sponge. You're soaking up so much weather knowledge communication knowledge. Weather communication knowledge, which is its own little, microcosm of interesting. And it's not just meteorologists, right? You have producers and directors and news gatherers and they're all the best of the best in that room putting a show together. And you're part of that team. And so you're learning how that works and you're learning how it goes, and you're the expert, because it's not just the News channel, it's the Weather Channel. And so your knowledge is important and they value it. So it was really a special place and, it was not something I didn't enjoy anymore. Right. So that wasn't the motivation for leaving there. I still go back. Right. That says something. How many people leave their jobs and still go to hang out because it's still fun for them? Joe Martucci: Yeah, I understand. Did you feel like you missed out by leaving local weather to go national? Joe Martucci: Let me ask you this too, because I do feel like a number of people who are working on the Weather Channel, they might start in local news and then work their way up to the Weather Channel. Did you feel like you missed out maybe by not taking working in that local news setting and going right to national? Or is it something that, hey, I'm at the Weather Channel, I love it here, I'm here. Mark Elliot: A little of both, maybe. I feel like it would be difficult for me to have left the Weather Channel and gone to local because there have been many who have done that. And so I might not know enough to be able to speak to it, right. Because I wasn't in that world long. An internship, is not the same as being a chief meteorologist at a local spot. But I was used to following the weather and my ship changing no matter where the weather was that day. So I would go where the weather could kill you. I would jump around to the middle of the night, I would be in the evenings because there was lots of severe weather. I'd occasionally move to the afternoons and then back to the overnight. I would follow the weather. You don't really do that in local. You've got your set time frame. The weather might be boring for a long stretch in one location, whereas if you're looking nationally, there is always a weather story somewhere. And so for me, it was always like, man, if I had to just look at one market, what would that feel like after looking at a national scale for, as long as I did? You guys can tell me I'm wrong and be like, local, best. And it's super interesting. And we get to do the school talks, and we get to be part of the community, and I would find all the things that I would love about that. But it's very different from looking at a national scale and talking about where the big story is only well, I'll. Joe Martucci: Say as somebody who literally just came from a school visit to talk to you right now, Mark, it's always good to be a part of the community. I do like it that way. But, I mean, hey, listen, again, when you're at the weather mean, you made it. I mean, you're so I know, Matt, you had a question, so, god, I don't want to take up too much. Mark Elliot: Not I'm not putting down local by any stretch. I think I love being in a community that way and being really focused and that kind of thing. but your original question was, do I feel like I missed out on not starting in that route? And I think I did some of those local feel type things at the national network. Right? I came in through radio, and so I was on local radio stations, some of them live and part, you know, people that were listening didn't know I wasn't in their sound booth with their board radio board in front of me. Right. We tapped into it virtually and digitally, but I was kind of part of those local communities. And then again, I'm dating myself a little bit, but video on the Internet was a new thing, and so I was doing local forecasts on your local on the eigth page, I think they actually called it that. How weird is that thinking, back on the days of weather.com, in the early 2000s or so, where kind of mid 2000s, probably when video was coming out on weather, but your local page had a video of just the New York City forecast that was new. And so that was me. They didn't have the full on air people doing that shift all the time because they had their full on air shift to do. So I would be jumping in. So I got some of that trial by fire local TV and local Feel experience at the national network, which was different, but pretty cool to be able to say I did it that way. Matt Holiner: Yeah, Mark, I know exactly what you're talking about, because when I was interning at the Weather Channel, I mean, at the time, it was really cool to me. But I got to do some of those. Joe Martucci: Local web forecasts. Matt Holiner: They let me do it near the end of my internship. I had to do a few sample videos for it to make sure I was good enough. And boy, when my first thing showed up on weather, it was just amazing. As, somebody who is in college to be on weather, it was fantastic. It was certainly not the same as being on the actual Weather Channel. Being on the website was pretty cool. And I felt the exact same way about being at the Weather Channel. Being in that building, and just the knowledge, the immense knowledge of the TV business, but also the forecasting business, meteorology be around, all those other meteorologists. It was a fantastic place to work. When was the moment that you realized you need to make a change? Matt Holiner: So my question for you is, when was the moment that you realized you need to make a change? What caused you to make the shift from being at the Weather Channel, for some people, their dream job, to then switching to a very different role at AT&T? Mark Elliot: I don't know if I did realize it just kind of happened. A lot of it was on a whim. So the real answer is, I was doing my CCM certification, the certified consulting meteorologist, through the, AMS. And I had a mentor who was encouraging me to do that project. I was doing it on my off time, it was COVID time. And so shifts were really strange at the Weather Channel. Times were moving around, some people were working from home, I was working in the studio. But more often than not only at the times of extreme, severe weather, right? Dr. Forbes had stepped away, mostly retired. And I was certainly not taking that role as the severe weather expert, but I was on the expert staff at that point, and often being told to, follow where the severe weather would go, but there isn't severe weather every day. So I was using some of that time to really think about what else was out there and what else was happening. And I was like, I think basically I'm a consultant. I come in now and I talk about just the most extreme weather, and I have to be able to make that digestible, but you have to be able to communicate differently. And you're doing some post analysis reporting, and a lot of things that a consultant would be asked to do. So I'm like, okay, this is different. This is not just a broadcast seal anymore for me. I'm going to try for the consulting meteorologist seal, which the process was epic, some will argue harder than getting the master's degree that I have to get the I won't necessarily swear by that, but it was a long process. It's doable, and it's fulfilling, and it's important. So if you're thinking about doing it, you should for people that are listening. But it's not quick. really by answering one of the questions that comes in the written exam, if you will. I wound up on a wormhole on the AMS site. And I stumbled into this job post for a tropical expert meteorologist that could do communication, and kind of briefing style communications that, could help lead a team to some degree and focus on the big weather stories of the day. And I was like, can do that, can do that, can do that, can do that, can do that. Do you ever see a job post and you're like, is this written about me? And then the kicker was, and it's in Atlanta where I was already living. And I was like, and I don't have to move for it. And so basically it was a thought experiment. And I was like, okay, well, what would it be like if I took a two decades broadcast resume and tried to make it sound like I was doing all these other things? Because I really was. But that's not what you're thinking about when you're doing broadcast meteorology. And there are so many skills that translate from broadcast meteorology to corporate meteorology and many other big data science or communication or PR type jobs. And so I basically said, okay, let's see, I'm going to use this next day. And instead of working on this or that, on my off time, I'm going to redo my resume. It's time to refresh it anyway. I basically was like, this will be fun. What else could I do today? And I applied to this job and I got an interview. And then I wound up getting the job. And then I had a really tough decision because again, I didn't dislike what I was doing. And I didn't necessarily sit there and say, I need to find something else. I don't like this anymore. I'm not interested in this anymore, or I'm not learning more. I'm not making a difference here. It was none of those things. It was a shiny new toy. And after a lot of reflection with myself and my family and asking, could this be a better work life balance for us? Could this be better for my young kids? Because again, I was bouncing around. I didn't know where I was going to be, right? That, could be sent out quickly. I didn't know what shift I was going to be on. I would miss events with the family. It was hard to plan stuff. And we said, okay, maybe this will have a little bit more regularity to it. It's a corporate world after all, and it is different in that way. And so I took the risk. Ah, so again, it wasn't like, I'm going to switch. It was like, I guess I'll switch. So hold on. Joe Martucci: Let me go puke in the corner. Mark Elliot: Because, yeah, it was frightening. It was a big change. I'm still not used to being the new guy. I'm surrounded by people that have 20 to 60 years of experience within at and t, and now I'm here, like. Joe Martucci: I have a year and a half. Mark Elliot: It's very different, but not necessarily in a bad way. Sean Sublette: No, I think you're right. A lot of those skills you do in broadcast do come back, or they're applicable in so many other areas. Communications of risk of scientific principles. You take a very complex situation, and you need to distill it into actionable information. Sean Sublette: One of the things that I've really admired about the weather channel is doing that this is submersive mixed reality stuff, that they continue to do, and I know you had some involvement in some of those as well. take me through as much as you were involved in production and actually recording the things, because I know any of us who have done broadcast meteorology, you're used to standing in front of a green screen and looking at something off camera and getting your bearings, kind of. How is that, in terms of doing IMR and producing and all that? How big is the team for that? For one thing? Mark Elliot: Yeah, there's a lot of questions there. And I guess I'll start with, I was doing some pieces there that were basically IMR before it was called that. Right. So there's a whole series of what was weather wizards that started as, could we open up a kitchen cabinet and do some sort of experiment at home with kids, or for yourself, and learn about the weather through cooking it up in front of you? And so we did a whole series of those, and basically started running out of good ideas. And that was a small team. I came up with a lot of, them. We had one producer, she would come up with several of them as well. We'd script it out. We'd think about what kind of graphics might pop up next to us, but it was mostly filmed handheld down in an experiment that you were doing. And we said, okay, what if the wizardry was not because of dry ice anymore and food coloring? It was because graphics would show up in front of you in the real world. And so we started doing these outside weather wizards that the graphic would be part of the environment that you were in. Thunderstorms would happen next to you, or you'd pan up, and suddenly you'd be up in the cloud, and you'd watch a raindrop change. Snow, sleet, rain kind of thing, as it went back down, and then landed back where I was, next to my shoe, stuff like that. And that technology kept evolving and kept growing all the way up to what's now classic, I guess not classically, but now known as IMR. That immersive mixed reality, where the entire room around you, more or less, is a green screen, and everything can be changed, whether it's the floor, the background, the walls, all of it. When it was a smaller thing, I was writing a lot of them, right? We won tele for the safest room piece, which is basically walking through a house and almost like, what if I was mayhem today? And I just stood back and all this stuff would happen around me, to the house, to the outside, and show people where you really need to be and why. So that won all kinds of awards and really kind of, I would argue, cemented the weather channel on going down this graphically heavy path. Because it is, I remember it, it. Sean Sublette: Was really well done. Mark Elliot: Yeah, I wrote most of that with a team, right. And really the graphics guys on that who are still buddies of mine, they did incredible stuff, like two x fours that would crash through a wall and when I bent under a two x four that wasn't actually there, a shadow would go across. Right? Like those little things that really make an IMR feel like IMR. So now it's done mostly back inside. But you've seen some of these things where walls of water come into an actual town and show you what that actual town could look like if storm surge happened or if a flash flood happened. You can't feel what that's like without that, you're not going to go there when that's happening. And so it's those graphical entries into that world that are really effective communication tools. Like 9ft of storm surge. Okay, who cares? That's not the right answer. But 9ft is suddenly above an actual building and you've seen that building and you know how high that is. That's a totally different communication thing. So as those have got more and more elaborate and more and more people were doing them, the teams got bigger and bigger. Lots of graphic artists, lots of writers. I only did a couple of those official IMRs. The whole staff was then brought in to do more of them because they were epic, right? And everyone wanted a chance to be able to be in that room and they should have been. And I'm glad that we all were. They're really great communication, tools. I think Stephanie Abrams did one with wildfire. Like, you're not going to be in a forest to see what it's like when a wildfire goes a football field a second, but we were able to show that with graphics and her standing there on the little silver disc. And then a lot of those ended with a climate story. Like how is this type of extreme weather changing as the world is changing? Are we getting more of these, less of these? Is things happening faster or slower? You can't show that without a graphic. And so to have that graphic happen around you was really epic. they're really cool pieces. When we have hurricanes or snowstorms, how do you guys determine who goes where? Joe Martucci: Mark, I want to ask you one more and then we'll get you out of here. Because this is maybe I'm just curious about this myself, but when we have hurricanes or snowstorms, how do you guys determine who goes where? How does that happen? Are you in the meeting for that? Who's deciding that? Is it a lot of discussion? Is it pretty easy? Mark Elliot: It is a war room. There's a whole bunch of people yeah, from the very higher stuff, people, that are in charge of TV, in charge of storytelling, to the people that are in charge of scheduling and VPs of talent. And then meteorologists are in the room, producers are in the room. I mean, it is a whole fleet of people. And the meteorologists have a say, as well. even all the way down to, like, you're sent here and you're there and you're like, I think the storm is changing. I think we need to be mobile to be here. All of that is still like, you're in constant communication. And the best part of being at a place like the Weather Channel for field work is that you have a building worth of people watching your back, that you have people back there that are focused on safety. And if you ever said, like, I can't do this broadcast, I'm not safe here, or for security reasons, for weather reasons, for anything, it was never a question. It was always like, yes, we'll do something from the studio, we're not doing it live. it was never asked, why you were never pushed to do something where you said, it's not safe here. Joe Martucci: interesting. I always love seeing the map where it shows everyone, like, your face and everybody's faces and where they are on the coast for a hurricane or snowstorm. Mark Elliot: I thought that was always real on a weather. I always think it's interesting when meteorologists talk about how they got started Joe Martucci: Anything else you'd like to add before we wrap it on up? I mean, this was great. We love hearing from you. Mark Elliot: I mean, I always think it's interesting when meteorologists talk about how they got started or what made them interested in weather. And, so many people I've talked to about this cite, a tree falling. I know that is tied to my experience. I don't know if you guys have any of that in your kind of origin story, but I think if you're the right age kid and something that seems permanent, like a giant tree can fall in front of you, or near you or hit something, you know, that also should have felt permanent as a young kid. I think it does something to our brains. Like, I never looked back, after watching a tree ball for why I wanted to do weather. It was always my answer, what do you want to be when you grow up? And it was weatherman. And the second part of that is my dad was involved in national preparedness, emergency preparedness for the VA hospital system, which in recent times, has turned into more like cybersecurity and terrorist act and stuff. But back in the early eight, late eighty s and early 90s, that almost exclusively meant where could weather disasters happen? And so he would be sent into areas that had weather problems. And I would watch the Weather Channel because there was a channel on that was talking about where my dad was. And so I just never stopped. I still haven't stopped. I still watch it as a viewer, even when I'm not there every day. So, yeah, I think that the origin story of trees falling or family connections are really important to young minds and how they get into the science of weather. How'd you get into weather? We should have asked that earlier Joe Martucci: Yeah, and we should have asked that earlier, and I apologize. How'd you get into weather? I say this all the time. I said it when I was at school earlier. It's something that for a lot of people, you know, at a young age, and you definitely are in that category, and it's hard to just fall into weather. I feel like I don't really see too many people who just fall into weather as a career. Mark Elliot: Well, I wasn't sure what I wanted to major in, and I took an Elements of Meteorology class and I just kept going. It's usually not that Elements of Meteorology because I had to fulfill my one science requirement and I never looked back. Right. Or I always wanted to be a meteorologist. I guess I should have followed that. People actually make careers of this. or, I am a meteorologist and I've known since I was yes. Joe Martucci: Yeah, that was me. I mean, really, one of the first things I ever remember in my life was about wanting to be a meteorologist. Anyway, Mark, we really appreciate the time, really insightful. We got to hear about your AT&T career, your Weather Channel career, more about you. So thanks a lot, we really appreciate it and we'll chat with you soon. Mark Elliot: Yeah, thanks for having me. Anytime. If you, come up with more questions again, I used to talk for a living, so I'll talk some more. Joe Martucci: Well, keep that in mind. For sure. Companies are realizing the value of having a meteorologist Joe Martucci: Awesome interview with Mark Elliot. He has many stories, as you would if you, worked for the Weather Channel for 20 years and working at the one of, if not the largest phone companies I know, I always see the commercials about is it AT&T or Verizon? Or is it T Mobile sprint. Now, I'm not too sure, but point is, his job is very important at T, like Sean said at the know equipment and tech all across the globe. It's a big, you know, I'm glad that he's enjoying it. So, Matt, what'd you think? Matt Holiner: Yeah, when you're working for a big international company like AT&T, what stood out to me was when he mentioned that one of the most challenging parts of his job is not just forecasting for the US. Anymore, which he had plenty of experience with at the Weather Channel. But that's all the Weather Channel has to worry about is the US. But AT&T, this is a global company, and they have assets across the globe. And so they're going to be concerned about the weather happening all over the planet. So a huge mean in some ways. His job almost got even bigger. Now he has to look the entire planet worth of weather. That is just a huge responsibility on him. But you know that I think this is also I always bring this up. I think we need more meteorologists, and I think we're seeing that. I think companies are realizing the value that having a team of meteorologists working for especially these really big companies, because they know specifically what they want and what weather information they need, and then they can go to their meteorologist. Rather than having to contact the media or the National Weather Service, they have a team working on what they know is most important for them and where their assets are located and getting these really specific forecasts. So I think this is something that we're probably going to see more and more, especially starting, of course, with these really big companies, but maybe even more medium sized companies actually thinking about getting some meteorologists because the weather has an impact on so many businesses. So I think this, isn't going to be an exception, these companies having their own meteorologists. I think we're going to see more. And more of it. Sean Sublette: Yeah, I agree. This kind of comes under the umbrella of weather risk management. The forecasting has gotten so much better in the last 20 years. But there is an overload of data, right? So you need a professional to go through the data that's important. Distill the most critical information to your business, and help those decision makers within a business manage risk. be sure your resources and your hardware are safe, and that's not something you can get. I love my brothers and sisters in broadcast meteorology, but you're not going to get what you need in a two and a half or three minute weather forecast if you've got a lot of assets that need protecting. So I think that, there's a lot of growth in there and the whole weather risk and ultimately climate risk management as well. So it was really nice to hear Mark talk about that as well, share some of those Weather Channel stories. Joe Martucci: Thanks again, Mark. We appreciate it. Always good to have another Rutgers guy on the podcast, too, if I may end. Across the Sky has a full slate of podcasts coming up on Mondays Joe Martucci: All right, so we have a full slate of podcasts coming up for you on the following Mondays. Sean, do you mind if I turn it over to you to talk about next Monday's episode with Mike Mann? Sean Sublette: Yeah. So a, very special episode we've got we're going to record next week, drop it, a week or so after that. Mike Mann. world famous climate scientist. He has written several books. The most recent one is called Our Fragile Moment. I had a chance to preview it a couple of weeks ago. It's an exceptional book. If you've always wondered, how do scientists know what the climate was like, 1000, 100,000, 10 million years ago? He walks through all of that in a very nice, easy to digest book. So we're going to talk to him about that book, and what else he's working on in the podcast next week. So very excited to have Mike Man on. Joe Martucci: Yeah, we're happy to have him on. And then on the 23rd, we're going to have Paul James from HGTV Fame here to talk about the science of changing leaves. And I think we're going to have a winter forecast for you on the 30 October as well. November 6, we're going to have, someone talk about tips to prepare older loved ones for extreme weather. That's with Dr. Lauren Sutherland from Ohio State. And then we got another big one. Sean keeps landing all these big podcast guests for us. Sean, this is the first time I've. Sean Sublette: Said this publicly, so I think most people who are into science have heard of Neil deGrasse Tyson. He likes to say your personal astrophysicist. He's got his podcast, he's got the Star Talk thing. He's got cosmos. He's all over the place. He's going on a book tour. He's going to be down here in Richmond. And I have scored a 15 minutes interview with him. It's going to be a little ways away. I'm going to do it in November. But we will turn that into a podcast as well. So I am uber excited about that one. Joe Martucci: We're over the mood. Sean Sublette: I am over the mood and the stars excited to talk to him. I only have 15 minutes, so I got to make it count. Joe Martucci: If he's going to talk for 15. Matt Holiner: Minutes, I'm sure we'll have plenty of commentary and plenty to digest from that 15 minutes because he is fantastic to listen to. Sean Sublette: Yeah, I, went through his new book when I think you all knew I Went to Italy. I read his new book on the flight over and back to Italy. And I will tell you all this because your meteorologist first chapter of his new book talks all about, the lowest, layers of the atmosphere. So he talks all about the atmosphere first. The book is called To Infinity and beyond. So he basically starts with the ground and works up. So, of course, you've got to start in the atmosphere before you get to outer space. So we talked about that, which I thought was just terrific. So, yeah, it's a couple, ah, three, four weeks away. Joe Martucci: yeah, that'll be our November 13 episode right now. So you can circular your calendar for that one. And of course, all the other ones we have coming out on mondays, too. So for John Sublette, Matt Holiner and Kirsten Lang, I'm meteorologist Joe Martucci thanks again for listening to the Across the Sky Podcast. We'll be back with you next Monday.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

October is here and that means peak fall! The leaves are changing color, football is on all weekend, and pumpkin spice everything is out in full force. As for the weather, temperatures are getting cooler, and though fall is generally seen as a quieter season, there's actually a lot to talk about. For this week's episode of "Across the Sky," the Lee Weather Team shares the 10 most important things you need to know about fall. The team discusses the timing of fall and when you're most likely to see the best fall color. They dive into the on-going threat of hurricane season, fall severe weather season, and the spooky weather that can be seen for Halloween. The team also looks ahead to when the first freezes and snows could occur. Besides the list, the meteorologists share their thoughts on why fall is the best season. Or maybe not? Turns out, there are some strong opinions. Don't miss the debate of the season! We want to hear from you! Is fall your favorite season? Why or why not? Call 609-272-7099 and leave us a message or email us at podcasts@lee.net. You might hear your comment on a future episode! About the Across the Sky podcast The weekly weather podcast is hosted on a rotation by the Lee Weather team: Matt Holiner of Lee Enterprises' Midwest group in Chicago, Kirsten Lang of the Tulsa World in Oklahoma, Joe Martucci of the Press of Atlantic City, N.J., and Sean Sublette of the Richmond Times-Dispatch in Virginia. Episode transcript Note: The following transcript was created by Adobe Premiere and may contain misspellings and other inaccuracies as it was generated automatically: Matt Holiner: Hello, everyone, and welcome to another episode of across the sky, our national Lee Enterprises weather podcast. Got the whole gang here today. I'm Matt Holiner in Chicago, and I'm joined by my fellow meteorologist, Joe Martucci in Atlantic City, Sean Sublette in Richmond, and Kirsten Lang in Tulsa. Together, we cover weather across the country. And, hope you like listening to us because, we're all you're getting today. No get this week. We just want to take some time now that it's October, to talk about fall. Specifically, the top ten things you should know about fall. We'll dive into the list in just a minute. Sean and Kirsten share their favorite seasons, and fall is their favorite Matt Holiner: But first, guys, what I want to know is fall your favorite season? Why or why not? And I'll go first. The answer is definitely yes for me. I love fall, and I've got three reasons yes, three reasons why. Now, first, we're talking about goldilocks temperatures. It's not too hot, it's not too cold. It feels just right. Second, college football, my favorite sport on every Saturday in the fall. Fantastic. And finally, my favorite holiday. Thanksgiving and my birthday are in the fall. So let's recap here. I'm getting together with lots of family and friends. I'm, eating a lot of good food, I'm watching a lot of football, enjoying some nice weather. Guys, it doesn't get any better than fall. Joe Martucci: Agree, or disagree on the power ranking of favorite seasons fall comes in. Matt Holiner: Joe killing me. Joe Martucci: But if we're including September, and we'll get to that, I do like the month of September. I can't stand the month of October, and then to a lesser extent, November. So I'll talk about the weather reasons why. 1st, first of all, anytime you're in the 50s, that's like, weather purgatory. You might as well be in the just be cold 50s, even 60s. That's like weather purgatory. So that's no dice for me. The second thing is the sun just keeps getting, lower in the sky. It's shorter, it's shorter, it's shorter, like in September. It's all right, it's whatever. And then you got November here in New Jersey. The sun's down at 05:00 by that point, and the sun's not up till like, 730. But anyway, here's the thing about October. October and I are not friends. Drake would be very upset at me because I know he's October's very own. I could do away with the month of October. This is what I've had happen to me in the month of October. In 2009, I had 105 fever with the flu. Then in 2012, I got into a bicycle accident. I lost some teeth, had a concussion, and then Sandy hit about four days later. Then in 2013, I had, a health incident. I'll just say. And then in 2018, I ended up having a basal cell on my eyelid that we had to do surgery for two months later. So October and I are not friends now. It's my mom. Excuse me. It's my sister's birthday. It's my dad's birthday. It's my brother in law's birthday, but it is not my birthday. My birthday is in May in the spring, which is my third favorite season. So, no, fall and I are not the best of friends. I like a lot parts of fall, and I like all seasons, but fall, unfortunately, is. Matt Holiner: I mean, I think it's pretty telling why Joe is not a fan of fall, but Sean and Kirsten ah. Your thoughts on fall. Kirsten Lang: I like fall. I really do. I think it is definitely not my least favorite at all, summer. As I'm getting older and with all of the kids, summer is by far my least favorite. I am just sweating 24/7, chasing kids, putting on sunscreen. I hate it. I am so ready to be out of it. And I think that's why I like fall, is because we're coming out of that, and it's like September. August is the worst month, in my opinion, of the entire year. But then you get to September, and it's okay. I mean, the September has been a little hot, but you just start getting a little bit cooler, but you're not too cold. I'm with Matt M on this because then when you start getting too cold, then it's uncomfortable again. So summer and winter are terrible because they're just two extremes. And then, of course, spring and fall, you know, the transition period. But I think I hate summer so much that fall is just like it's that beam of light at the end of the tunnel for me. And I think that's why. Plus, I like Halloween. I love dressing, love I'm with Matt. Thanksgiving, I think is my favorite holiday because you don't have to worry about, like don't, get me wrong, I love Christmas, but you have the stress of getting everybody's gift and this and that. Thanksgiving, you just get together and eat, and I love food. So Thanksgiving is probably my favorite holiday. Halloween is my second favorite. I'm with Matt. Sorry, Joe, I'm not in your, but yeah, that's how fall on that. Joe Martucci: I just want to add to the fall I forgot to even say this halloween. So I'm okay with Halloween, but unless someone's inviting me to a Halloween party, I'm not dressing up for. Kirsten Lang: Oh. Joe Martucci: So, Kirsten, if you're on Halloween party and you want me to come to Tulsa, I'll dress up for your Halloween party. But sans that, I'm not dressing up for Halloween. Matt Holiner: So Sean, you're going to be our tiebreaker. Is fall good or bad? Sean Sublette: No. All right, let me step back. Matt Holiner: With all due respect, I don't even. Sean Sublette: Need to with all due respect, Joe, it's not October's fault. It's not October not my fault? Joe Martucci: I had 105 fever with the flu. Sean Sublette: That's not October's fault. Joe Martucci: It's not my fault. I hit a grass covered ditch on a bicycle, Sean. You know what I'm saying? Sean Sublette: Did you do it in the dark at 06:00 p.m.. No, it's not October's fault. My biggest problem with fall is that winter comes next Sean Sublette: All right. Joe Martucci: It was after one of my weather classes at Rucker. Sean Sublette: Here's what I will give you, though. I will give you this one, Joe. I love fall. My biggest problem with fall is that winter comes next. Joe Martucci: Yeah. Sean Sublette: If we could go right from fall to spring. Well, now we're talking. Now we're talking about a climate I can get into. but I totally understand Kirsten's point about August just being a hellscape, especially in Texas, where every day is at least 95. Right. So, for me, I'm kind of of Matt's idea here that, i, still enjoy college football. It gets cool enough. You want to start playing around the kitchen a little more, you want to start cooking some stuff, you could start doing stews again, you can start doing soups again, you can start baking some pies, man. You enjoying the hotter foods again. Nobody wants a bunch of hot nachos in know, or a big bowl of soup in July. Nobody wants, to put on the sweatshirts again. And, the other thing, Joe, I'm going to push back. I love you, brother, but I'm going to push back. There's nothing wrong with 55 or 60 degrees if the sun is out and 60 degrees, little sweatshirt, it's fine. It's a great day for football. It's a great day for football if it is 60 degrees and sunny, it's a beautiful day for football. Your problem is that you went to Rutgers. Joe Martucci: Well, if you want to talk about football without Rutgers, there would be no football. Sean Sublette: That's very true. Point for you. The birthplace of college football. Joe Martucci: I got the ultimate trump card in that one. If you want to start talking about you did that. But, fifty S and sixty s. It doesn't snow when it's in the you're not wearing shorts in the unless you're one of those people who wears. Matt Holiner: Shorts all the time. Sean Sublette: One of those people? What is that? Now, look, I am sometimes one of those people through October. I am that guy who will have shorts and a sweatshirt on. Yes, I am that guy. Joe Martucci: I do that, too. But you're in Virginia, it's a little bit warmer in yeah, you know what I'm saying? Sean Sublette: That's the thing is you get a lot of swings in October. But back to your point, Joe, is that one thing that does frustrate me is that we do lose daylight so dramatically right through the course of October. I mean, it starts to fall off very rapidly in September. I, do wish we had a little more daylight. I'm a little farther east or west in the time zone than you, so, it doesn't get dark quite as early. I mean, God bless those people in Massachusetts and Maine where it's dark at 04:00 in the afternoon. Ah at the solstice. Man, that's got to be miserable. But, yeah, I do like fall, it gives me a chance to do those warmer things that I didn't want to touch in July and August. But yeah, I'm not a big fan, big fan of winter. And I'm also really tired to Kirsten's point of slather and sunscreen on anytime I want to do something outside more than 30 minutes in the summer. So, fall is my time. Because the other thing is that the allergies I don't have fall allergies like I do in the spring and early summer. So I'm going to be team fall. Matt Holiner: That's what I'm talking about. Sorry, Joe. Joe Martucci: I'm going to give credit to Sean on this one because he's talking about winter again. This goes back to where you live thing, because you guys in Virginia don't get as much snow, right? I mean, winter, I live for the snow in the winter. That's where I'm at. And the cold. So if it's like again in the 50s in the winter, like it is in Richmond most of winter, I wouldn't like that either. So fall could be three if I lived in Richmond, Virginia. Sean Sublette: Well, what is your favorite season, Joe? Joe Martucci: Summer. Sean Sublette: Okay. Kirsten Lang: That's because you don't live this far south. Joe Martucci: No, I can hang. I can hang. Kirsten Lang: I mean, I grew up, though. Matt and I both grew up in Texas. It was hot. It's funny because I was so much more tolerant of it. Now I hate it, and it's the sunscreen and the kids, and I'm just sweating all the time. I hate it. Joe Martucci: I could see it if I lived in non coastal United States, but if you put me on a beach in Florida, like, hey, Joe, you now live in Clearwater Beach, Florida. I can hang. I've been to Florida in the summer. Matt Holiner: Well, clearly we can debate this for quite some time. I did not realize there were such strong opinions about fall, but there clearly are. But regardless of how you feel about fall, there is a lot of interesting weather to talk about. So coming up after the break, our top ten things you need to know about fall. And we're back on across the sky. There are two ways to define the fall season meteorological fall or astronomical fall Matt Holiner: To kick off our list, we're going to talk about the timing of fall. First, the start of astronomical fall. Now, that's what happened a couple of weekends ago on September 23 with the fall equinox, the day where the sun's rays are focused on the equator and there's an equal amount of day and night, astronomical fall will last until astronomical winter begins on the winter solstice. That's the shortest day and longest night of the year. And this year, that's going to occur on December 21. But this brings us to the second thing you need to know about fall, which is that there's another way to define the fall season meteorological fall. Joe, what can you tell us about. Joe Martucci: So you know us in the weather? Biz, we like to keep things as nice and simple as we can because forecasting is hard enough. So what we do is we break down each season into three month periods that involve the full month. So meteorological fall or climatological fall, they're interchangeable. I think technically it's climatological fall, but climatological meteorological fall is September, October and November. And then the winter would be December, January and February. Matt Holiner: Yeah, it's all based on the temperatures. When we typically have those kind of middle temperatures, we define it really based on when we see our coldest months of the year december, January, February, our warmest months of the year, june, July and August. It just makes it easy from, a climate perspective. You're right, Joe. It really helps in keeping things organized in the climate records that we like to keep. So that's the thing you need to know. There's astronomical fall and meteorological fall. And that's why it's the first day of fall. You'll hear some people saying that September 1, but technically it's usually not until the 21st, 22nd, 23rd, if you're going by when the equinoxes and the solstices occur. When do you get the best fall colors, and where does it vary Matt Holiner: So, moving along from the timing to our number three thing you should know about fall, and I think you probably already do it's fall foliage. I mean, how can we not talk about how beautiful fall is? And that's another reason why it is my favorite season. I love the fall colors, but when do you get the best fall colors? That's always a popular question. And it really does depend on where you live in the know, in some places, the best time to see fall color is actually right now, very end of September, early October. Now, that's not many locations, but if you're in the Rocky Mountains, far northern Minnesota, northern New York, northern New Hampshire, northern Maine, really the peak of the season is late September, into very early October. Now, it all goes pretty much north to south. So as far as the peak of the season, when is the best time to see fall color? In a lot of places, if you take the average, it's really the middle part and later know, really mid October. Oftentimes we can see the peak of the season across Iowa, northern Illinois, northern Indiana, Ohio. Now it takes a little bit longer, more usually around the end of the month of October, around Halloween time, especially across Missouri, Kentucky, Tennessee. And it does take even longer farther to the south. I mean, if you're talking about Oklahoma, Mississippi, especially northern Mississippi, northern Alabama, northern Georgia, that more really is in the first half of November. And, for folks in Louisiana, southern, Mississippi, Florida, Alabama, south Texas, kirsten, I know, you know, this fall color season, is not much. if you're going to get some fall colors, it's definitely going to be the end of November. And I hesitate to even call it fall color in South Texas because I guess the leaves go from green to brown, but you don't have the yellows and the oranges. And the, varies, varies a little bit. But in general, the higher elevations get it first, and the farther north you live, the earlier they are going to change, and the farther south you live, it's going to take longer for them to change, or they're not going to change at all. October is definitely the month to plan your fall color trips Matt Holiner: Guys, do you have any favorite leaf peeping spots? Joe Martucci: It's funny you said leaf peeping because I'm doing a full foliage outlook for pressovac.com. And I asked a, forester within New Jersey's Forest Service what he thinks of leaf peeping. And he essentially said it's, good for tourism, but not good for Know. There's a couple of spots I like. once you get up north in Long Beach Island, you're barring it light, barring it lighthouse. There's some nice foliage there. It's not a lot. There's some nice foliage. Batstow State Forest, which is in Burlington County, New Jersey, and then High Point, which is the highest point in New Jersey in the northwest corner of the state. I've been there a couple of times as well. So that's what I got here in New Jersey. Matt Holiner: Sean, I always liked Skyline Drive. When I was living in Richmond. I was only there for a year, but that fall I went and took a drive along Skyline Drive, up in the mountains. And man, that was gorgeous. I absolutely loved that. Sean Sublette: That we're very fortunate, about that. Here in Virginia, we've got that wonderful road, skyline Drive hooks up there in Charlotesville, then it turns into Blue Ridge Parkway, and it continues all the way down, well into the Carolinas. and yeah, man, it's just wonderful to drive that route very slowly, very gradually, and just take it all in. so I love to go up, into the Virginia's mountains as we get into the fall to take it. And it's been a long time since I went camping in the fall, a very long time since I went camping in the mountains in the fall. But, it's gorgeous. I mean, it really is gorgeous. For us, the time is really more mid to late October, a little bit earlier in the true highest Allegheny Highlands, let's say, the Bath and Highland counties in Far. But yeah, I mean, for for me in Richmond, it's going to be really very late in October, even early November. But, yeah, the mountains are just gorgeous. Just gorgeous. Looking forward to that. Matt Holiner: Yeah. And I would say for Know, for future planning, if you want to take a leaf peeping trip to take advantage of the fall colors, especially in those places that are most famous for the fall colors, new England. And yes, the Skyline Drive in Know, october is definitely the month to focus on because there are a lot of places where the peak either varies from early October to late October, and we kind of take an average across the country in mid October. So October is definitely the month to plan your fall color trips and, moving along kind of piggybacking off of fall foliage. And the reason why the leaves change, it's because we get away from those warm, humid nights of summer, and we transition to the cool, crisp nights of fall. But as we get later and later into fall, it's not just cool nights anymore, it's cold nights. You can get frost on surfaces even when the air temperature is above freezing Matt Holiner: And eventually, you get to our fourth thing to know about fall frost. Now, this is that thin layer of ice that forms on grass and other plants late at night or early in the morning. Now, ice, that means the air temperature is freezing, right? Not always. So, Sean, why do we get frost when it's actually above 32 degrees outside? Sean Sublette: Yeah, this is one of the things I wondered for the longest time as a kid. I'm like, well, wait a minute, it's not freezing. How can we have frost? think about how an object gives up heat, which is kind of like, what do you mean, gives up heat? Think about a piece of aluminum foil first. Take it out of the oven, and it gets cool very quickly, right? Well, the ground actually cools more rapidly than the air above it. At night, if there's not a lot of wind and the sky is clear, the ground cools very effectively and very efficiently, so that the ground will be colder than the air immediately above it by a few degrees. And that's why sometimes you will have frost on strips of blades of grass and that kind of stuff. Even if the air temperature, which is normally taken five to 10ft above the ground, is 38, 39 degrees, that can still happen. So that's the thing to remember. The ground can cool much more effectively than the air immediately above it. So this is why the relative humidity is fairly high. you can get frost on surfaces even though the air temperature is a few degrees above freezing. Matt Holiner: Yeah, and I think that's what catches people off guard. Because when there's a chance of frost, the National Weather Service will issue these frost advisories, and people mean, does that mean freeze? And it's like, no. Oftentimes you'll see these frost varieties. As a general rule, the temperature to look for is about 37 degrees. If the air temperature is 37 degrees, if you got a clear night and calm winds, kind of the same conditions that you need for fog to form, because it's a similar process just at a colder temperature, that's when you have the chance of frost. So the magic temperature to watch out for and the magic conditions are a clear night, light winds, and once that temperature gets to about 37 degrees or colder, 37, 36, 35, there is that opportunity for frost. And yes, plants can be damaged by frost, but when it's colder. They even have a better chance of being damaged. Most places actually get their first freeze of the season in the fall Matt Holiner: And so that, of course, brings us to the fifth thing you need to know about fall, and that is freezing. Most places actually get their first freeze of the season in the fall. And this is when the air temperature does actually hit 32 degrees or colder. And you're going to know when this is going to happen because the National Weather Service is going to issue freeze watches and warnings ahead of time. Now, in many places, they only are going to do it for that first freeze of the season. Although in South Texas, they do it anytime it freezes because it freezes frequently. and just like with the fall color, the timing of the first freeze also depends on where you live. And I've got a map pulled up talking about the average first freeze. Obviously, there's variations and we could talk about how with climate change, the timing for that first freeze is starting to trend later and later. But believe it or not, you can actually get the first freeze of the season at the end of August in the high elevations of the Rockies. I mean, we are talking way up in the Rockies. That is certainly the know, you go across the very far northern tier of the country and we're talking about late September, very, end of September sometimes already seeing that first freeze. It does take longer in most, you know, Iowa, southern Wisconsin, northern Illinois. It's more likely going to be around the mid October time frame kind of lining up very similar to what we see with the fall colors. Then once you get into Missouri, Kentucky, Virginia, it tends to be the end of fall. So sometimes that first freeze of season can happen right around Halloween time or just after. And usually the first freeze is more likely to be in the middle of November or late November as you get into Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Texas. And again, if you're talking about central south Florida, far southern Texas, the Rio Grande Valley, shout out to the Rvgv. It's more likely not going to be until December or January. And not to forget also the West Coast, it kind of follows that same progression. And if you're in southern Arizona, Southern California, there's a good chance it may not even freeze at all. You get some places where it doesn't even freeze. But for the majority of the country, that first freeze does occur before fall is over. And so you have to watch out for those freeze watches and warnings and oh, the thicker coats. Not just the light jacket, but the good old parkas and dusting them off. Guys, when do you dust off the thick? Kirsten Lang: You know, our first usually isn't until mid to, early to mid November. and I would say honestly, our thicker coats don't come out till like January here in Oklahoma, january and February, those are our rough months because we can stay I don't want to say warm, but we can definitely stay warmer to where you're not bundling up all the way through. So I would say January and February for us. Matt Holiner: I remember those days back when I used to live in the south in Chicago. The thicker coats are coming out in November for sure. There's going to be days in November in Chicago where, the light jacket isn't going to cut it. You buy with a light jacket in October by November. for me, that's kind of when winter begins in. Joe Martucci: Got. Like, I got like two levels of I guess if you're talking about the real thick winter coat, that's only like a couple of days a year that I pop it out. Like, the highs got to stay like, below 35 all day. But I would say my general winter coat probably coming out November 10 ish and then going away like April 20 ish. And I'm not using it every day. Kirsten made a face. I'm not using it every day in April. Don't get me wrong, but I did wear a winter jacket on May 1 this year because it was only 56 degrees and it was windy. But by then, most of the time, your days are plenty nice. But I still got it around till about April 20 or so. Matt Holiner: The wind definitely makes a difference. The wind chill is a real thing. Across the sky is a weekly podcast produced by Lean News Matt Holiner: Okay, well, we're going to take a quick break, but don't go anywhere. We're not done yet. We've still got five more things for you, including a very important date you do not want to forget. Joe Martucci: Stick around. Matt Holiner: That one is one of them, but there's a one that, I'll be honest, is a little bit more important. So stick around. Sean Sublette: More. Matt Holiner: Across the sky. Coming up. Welcome back, everyone, to the across the sky podcast. We release new episodes every Monday on our Lean News website, but also on all podcast platforms. So wherever you like to get your podcasts, you can find us there. And if you can subscribe and leave us a review. Sure appreciate it. Hurricane season lasts from mid August to mid October; it's not over Matt Holiner: Now we're continuing our countdown of the top weather things to know about fall. And at number six, it's a big one, hurricane season. It's not over yet. It doesn't end until November 30. Now, Joe and Sean, you've been doing a lot of updates on the tropics this season. Shout out to Hurricane Hunt. So what can you tell us about where we are so far this season and what to expect moving forward? Sean Sublette: It's funny. I'm going to pull my old man card out here for a second, because when I was an undergrad, we all knew that, June 1 was the beginning of hurricane season. But we all kind of know it didn't get serious until August, right? Nowadays in the media landscape that we're in, 1 June hits it's like it's hurricane season. Then it gets very quiet for a couple of months, right. Because the core of the season is mid August to mid October. And that's one of the things I try to drive home to people. Like, if nothing happens in June, that's actually rather normal. If almost nothing happens in July, that's actually kind of normal. But the thing here is that the water in the oceans holds on to its heat well into the fall. It takes a lot more energy to heat up or cool down water than air. So that's why the oceans stay so warm well into October, which is why hurricane season goes into the middle part of October. So it is very common to have hurricanes, in the first half of October especially. And sometimes they go well into October and even November. and Joe knows all about that, unfortunately, to the Sandy situation, because it did start as a hurricane, for it transitioned out, into an extra tropical system, meaning cold core versus warm core. But the end result, yes, we're on the downswing of hurricane season in October, but it really doesn't drop off dramatically until the second half of October. Joe Martucci: Yeah, I think what Sean said was perfect there. We kind of even have like two drop offs. And we've been saying it's a hurricane hunt, like one's, like the middle of September. And then the big drop off, like Sean said, is the middle of October here. But hurricane season lasts until November 30, which is the end of Climatological fall. So we still remain villagent there. hurricane season has been more active than average, I believe at, least when we're recording this, the 7th most active hurricane season in terms of the number of days with either a tropical storm or a hurricane somewhere in the Atlantic Ocean. That's courtesy of Phil Klotsbach, who maybe will come on this show one day. And we'll interview him. He is from Colorado State University and puts out all the wonderful hurricane forecasts that he does. But, yeah, I think Sean pretty much nailed it on the head. Fall is pretty much prime time for a good part of hurricane season. Matt Holiner: Yeah. As of this recording, which is September 20 eigth, so far in 2023, there have been 18 named storms, six of those becoming hurricanes and three major hurricanes. And you look at what's a normal season, and that's only 14 named storms. So we're above average there. The normal number of hurricanes is seven. So certainly time to get to that. And the normal number of major hurricanes for the entire season until November 30 is three. And we've already had three major hurricanes, and there's still some things brewing out in the tropics. So, there's been some talk, I think sometimes we get locked into about the number of US. Landfalls and that's how busy the season is. And yes, there have been a lot of fish storms this year that haven't. Had an impact land, which is good, but it's actually been an above average season already and it's certainly not over with. so definitely plenty more to watch there. Number seven thing you need to know about fall is to watch out for Halloween Matt Holiner: But moving on with our countdown, the number seven thing you need to know about fall, and that is to watch out for Halloween. Now, there may be many reasons to watch out for Halloween, but the weather is certainly one of them. When it comes to holidays, many of them are pretty consistent. It's probably going to be cold for Christmas. The snow is iffy, but it's probably going to be cold for Christmas. 4 July, it's probably going to be hot. But Halloween, man, you could say about anything on Halloween. I mean, the full gamut of weather. Guys, what are your best Halloween weather stories? Kirsten, anything good with the kids last few years? Kirsten Lang: M halloween here is not I don't worry too much about it being really cold. in Oklahoma, typically, it's pretty comfortable. I do remember though, when I was a kid, always worrying that I was going to have to wear like a coat or something. And I say this, but I grew up in San Antonio, it's always hot, so why would I care about this? But I do remember being like, oh, am I going to have to put a coat on or some kind of long sleeves on underneath my, costume? But no, it's been since I've had children. This will be my fourth, Halloween, and it's been pretty consistent here. It's pretty comfortable. If anything, I feel like it's been a little hot. but, like I said, Oklahoma. It doesn't get too crazy here until a little deeper into the season. Matt Holiner: There have been some Halloween winter storms, there's been severe weather in some parts of the country. Halloween, once again, just like we've been saying, it very much depends on where you are in the country. What is Halloween going to be like again? Growing up in San Antonio, I remember more Halloween's where I was sweating in my costume than, ah, cold. I was taking off layers, especially those thick rubber masks. Oh my god, the sweat that you pour under those. So nasty. Joe Martucci: Are you like the guy at the. Matt Holiner: End of a night of trick or treating? M I think one of my, the worst memory I have is I was an alien and I had a rubber alien mask. And I just remember being such a warm night and, my face was just covered in sweat and I kept having to take the mask off. I mean, I don't know, I was probably like 13 or something. It was not my most fun night of trick or treating, although I still got a lot of candy. And at the end of the night, once I cooled off inside in the AC, I was a little bit happier. When I had my big pile of. Joe Martucci: When was the last time you trick or treated Joe Martucci: Candy, I got a question for you guys. What was the last year that you guys trick or treated? Not with kids, by yourself? Kirsten Lang: Well, we used to do we wouldn't trick or treat, but we were really into passing out candy, my husband and I. And that was fun. But, as far as, like, when was the last time I trick or treated? Man, I don't know. Joe Martucci: I'm saying, like, as a kid, how late in life did you trick or treat? Sean Sublette: Until early middle school. Then that was kind of, it maybe 6th grade, maybe 7th. I don't know. Matt Holiner: I think I might have gone freshman year of high school. That may have been the last one for me, like, just going out. And then I think that's when I became aware it's like, I'm one of the taller people out here. Sean Sublette: I shouldn't do this. Matt Holiner: I think that was it. And then in high school, you have the seniors that are the people you look up to. It's like, well, they're not going trickortreating. It's like, okay, maybe I should stop, but I think I might have gone freshman year of high school. And that was it. And then went out with a couple of groups of kids since then. Joe Martucci: Gotcha. And does everybody know what the day before Halloween is? Sean Sublette: Only in Jersey. Kirsten Lang: The day after in Via de los Muertos. Joe Martucci: All Saints Day. Sean Sublette: Yeah, all Saints Day is the day after. I thought you said the day before. Joe Martucci: M I'm sorry. No. October 30. Only Sean knows because he spent some time in New Jersey. It's Mischief Night. Matt Holiner: I think they have that in Detroit before, you mentioned. Joe Martucci: Yeah, my mind was blow. I got to go back to this story. It was like 2015. I was working my first weather job, and I was talking to somebody from Ohio who born and raised, and he just moved over here. And I said, oh. I said, what are you doing for Mischief Night tonight? Just, like, joking around. And the guy was like, I was an alien. Speaking of alien, Matt and I was like, what do you mean you don't know a Mischief Night? He said, I've never heard of it. He said, he calls sneakers basketball, shoes or tennis shoes, which I don't get. But he didn't know about Mischief Night. So then I saw and there's a map that says, only in New Jersey do people call this Mischief Night. I was like, what the heck's going. Matt Holiner: Yeah, that wasn't a thing for me growing up. Sean Sublette: Yeah. It's called Devil's Night. I think in Michigan. Joe Martucci: In Michigan. Now I can't say I was one really creating mischief. So I'm not really the right person to talk about this, but I just find it's, like, such a cultural phenomenon. Sean Sublette: Yeah, the map is hysterical. That map that you referenced is know, in Philly and Jersey, it's this little blue thing. Oh. You call it Mischief Night. And the, rest of the country is like, what tell us what you do. Kirsten Lang: What do you do on Mischief Night? Joe Martucci: Historically, you would throw toilet paper at people's houses and egg people's houses. And do have you ever had that done to you? No. you know what, actually, we might have had at my parents house once, but really, by the time I was even a kid, it was kind of like cracked. I think that was more of like an eighty s. Seventy s. Sixty s thing. Back in Sean's day, he didn't know about Mischief Night because he was in Virginia. Matt Holiner: All right, so we've learned to watch out for Joe Martucci on Mischief Night in New Jersey and also watch out for weather on Halloween. Just keep in mind, you, can get a lot of different kinds of weather. So pay attention to that Halloween forecast. The end of daylight saving time is Sunday, November 5 Matt Holiner: But also pay attention after Halloween this year because we've got to talk about the 8th thing that you need to know about fall. And this one you definitely need to know. And that's the end of daylight saving time. Now, this year, that's going to occur on Sunday, November 5. Mark your calendar, sunday, November 5. If you want to do it officially, wait until 02:00 a.m. Or otherwise whenever you go to bed, this is the one that's sometimes considered the good time change because this is when we fall back. So you will set your clocks back Sunday, November 5, at 02:00 A.m. To 01:00 A.m.. So, yes, you get an extra hour of sleep, but the bad thing is sunset the next day, an hour earlier. It's definitely going to throw you off. Guys, how do you handle the time change, dude? Sean Sublette: All right, I'm going to start here because it kicks my butt, man. As I get older, I am much more in tune to daylight cues in terms of waking up and falling asleep. I've reached that age. Now that when it gets dark, I'm like, I'm ready to go sleep. My wife is just teasing me. I'm like, it's 530, I'm ready to go to bed. She's like, what? Come on, man. but that first. Honestly, I really struggle from the time we set the clocks back in early November until Thanksgiving. By Thanksgiving, I've kind of acclimated. But those first two or three weeks, it's a downer. It's a serious downer. Now, the flip side of that, I hear people going, oh, well, we should have daylight saving time all year. No, I will take this three months of pain because here's what I don't want in January, I don't want the sun rising at 830. I don't want any part of that at all, at all. So I can gut it out for a few weeks, get myself acclimated. Then after Thanksgiving, we're set up for the holidays. It's a little more exciting. The lights are, up, the chestnuts on the open fire, the whole bit. But yeah, I struggle. Those first two or three weeks after we set the clocks back. But under no circumstance do I ever want to stay on daylight saving time all year long. Joe Martucci: So there's my know, I agree with Sean. Kirsten Lang: The first couple weeks are hard with that. But personally, since I have so much family in Arizona, I love whenever this comes around, because now, instead of being 2 hours behind everybody I talk to in Arizona, we're only 1 hour behind. Plus, when I go to visit, which is somewhat frequently, it's a lot easier to take, three small children and only mess up their bedtime by like 1 hour versus 2 hours. Two hour time difference is a big deal when you've got a five month old baby or a two year old little boy and you're going to visit your in laws. So that's my thing. I love when it comes around, because then I feel like I can text my in laws and my sister in law at like 08:00. A.m. And it's not, six. There still yes. Matt Holiner: So watch out for the time change. Sunday, November 5. Sunday, November 5. That's the date to remember. Fall is considered the quietest weather season of all the seasons Matt Holiner: But we're going to keep moving along here, to the number nine thing to know about fall. And oftentimes fall is considered the quietest weather season. And technically, if you factor out hurricane season, because we do see the peak of hurricane season on September 10, but if you take that out, yeah, fall technically tends to see the quietest weather of all the seasons. I think you can tell since we've been doing a whole show on this, that there's still a lot of weather that occurs in the fall. And you can't overlook fall severe weather season now. No, there aren't as many severe storms and tornadoes in the fall as there are in the spring. Are they absolutely still happy in September? We still average around 70 tornadoes across the country. And in October and November, both October and November, a similar number of tornadoes. We average about 60 tornadoes in October and November. We really don't see a steep dive in severe thunderstorm and tornado activity until December. And Kirsten being in Tulsa, and Oklahoma. How does severe weather season in the fall play out there? Kirsten Lang: Okay, so I was going to say, I've pulled up some stats about this. And last year I'm sorry, two years ago, 2021, we, set the most record for the most tornadoes in October, since they started taking records back in, what, 1950 for that. And that was 34. We had 34 tornadoes in October in 2021, which is not far behind what we have in April. So April, the most we've ever seen in April was 54. on average, though, we're right there kind of around March, like what we get in March. Again, like you said, it's these transitional seasons. When that happens, you're going to get this kind of weather, when you get these fronts that move through spring or fall or whatever it might be. But, we do still get tornadoes here. and we call it the second severe weather season around here, whenever that happens. last year wasn't too bad. We only had two tornadoes, but 20, 21, 34 tornadoes. That's a lot for October. Matt Holiner: Yeah. Joe Martucci: And even here in Jersey, which is like, really weird, we actually had our biggest one day tornado outbreak in November, on November 15, back in, I believe it was 1989. Yes, 1989. We had a large tornado outbreak that day. We had 17 tornadoes in one day in New Jersey, which is a lot for us here. So that was incredible. And, that led us to a total of 18 for the year, which still stands as the most tornadoes in one year in recorded history, going back to 1950. Shout out to my weather dad, Dave Robinson, who's been on this podcast, for that information. Matt Holiner: Yeah, because they tend to occur in these go. That's where you have to watch out in October, november, because you'll go a couple of weeks where it's pretty quiet, nice weather, not much going on. Maybe just some light rain moving over you. But then suddenly, big time thunderstorms, like, where did summer come back from? What is happening? So watch out in October, november. Severe storms definitely can still happen. We can still get tornadoes. Again, not to say that there are no tornadoes in December, January or February either, but those are the three months where it's particularly the quietest. You get about half the number of tornadoes in those three months. About 30 is the number of tornadoes that we typically see in December, compared to 60 around November. So much more of a drop once we get into the winter months. But keep an eye out for October, November for additional severe storms. The timing of the first snow of the season varies across the country Matt Holiner: All right. And finally, I think reached a good transition point here. The 10th and final thing you need to know about fall is, and I know some people aren't going to like this it's fall snow. I think this is the perfect segue not only into winter, but it also ties into severe storms, because a lot of the times these first snows of the season occur on the backside of low pressure systems and cold fronts that on the front side, trigger severe storms and possibly tornadoes ahead of them. And on the backside, here comes the snow. Now, just like with fall foliage and the freeze times, the timing of the first snow of the season varies, considerably across the country. Once again, you can get your first snow of the season in higher elevations of the Rockies in September. Now, usually the first snow of the season for Montana, North Dakota, northern Minnesota, actually, in October. Then there are a lot of places where it actually occurs in November, though, across Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois, southern Wisconsin, indiana, Ohio, up into the Northeast, your first snow is in November. Not in December. November still technically in the fall. Now a little bit farther south. And you're not talking about that first snow until you get into December, like Kentucky, Oklahoma, and then as far as the Southeast, you're talking about usually January or February, if it snows at all. But, watch out for the snow. Sometimes in October, watch out for the Halloween surprise. But especially in November, they start to get into snow season. Guys, are you looking forward to talking and forecasting about snow again? Joe Martucci: I am, because that's what, like I said, the beginning. It keeps me hanging on to winter as my, tide for second favorite season with spring. So yes. And in southern New Jersey, and if you're listening in southern New Jersey, thanks for listening. Our first snow, our first measurable snow on record was November 5. So it's coming. And hey, shout out to our snow search series that Sean and I are going to be doing once we get to some point in November. Sean right. Eventually, maybe late November, we'll start doing our Monday snow searches. Sean Sublette: Yeah, I have to imagine we'll do that around Thanksgiving, no later than right after Thanksgiving. But yeah, I mean, it was a few years ago, there was a really bad snow in the Northeast. At the end of October. There were still leaves on the trees. These kinds of almost freakish, October snows in places that don't typically get them, so it can happen. But, especially when you get down to my latitude here in Virginia, the variability in snowfall from year to year is so high. I mean, we've had winters that we had 30 inches and we had winters like last year. We didn't get a thing. So it's all over the place, in certain locations. But yeah, we typically start to see something in December here. but as you mentioned, Matt, a lot of times, right after you've had this abnormally warm, humid kind of thing, then storm goes by, you get on the backside and it snows. And that really catches some people by surprise. Back to what Joe went through with Sandy in 2012. At the time, I was in western Virginia, and we have a lot of ski resorts not far away in the state of West Virginia. And once Sandy went by, it unleashed this torrential amount of upslope snow on the western side of the Appalachians. And there was a phenomenal amount of snow in the ski resorts of West Virginia with Sandy. And people sometimes forget that, that it was a very big storm also away from the New Jersey shore with some of the most phenomenal snow amounts away from a classical winter storm, that you would see because it was the end of October. So it tapped in the cold air once the storm went by. So, yeah, October, late October, certainly can be a volatile time. Matt Holiner: Yeah, it's, just a reminder. Just like with the severe know, once especially you get into late October and into November. I'm only watching out for severe storms, watch out for snow again. And I personally am rooting for a quieter winter than last winter because last winter I was far too busy with weekly winter storms in the Midwest. So fingers crossed, it's going to be a little bit quieter this year. Top ten things to know about Fall. Top Ten Things to Know About Winter Matt Holiner: And I, think that does it for our top ten things to know about Fall. Now this was a little bit of a different episode for us. I enjoyed it, though. but the real question is, did you enjoy it? Let us know. Send us an email at podcasts@lee.net or leave us a voicemail. That number is 609-272-7099. If we hear good things, we might have to do this again. just a few months for winter. Top Ten Things to Know About Winter. I'm sure we'll ten things for that as well. Mark Elliott is the principal meteorologist for and T, the phone company Matt Holiner: But for next week, we're back to having a guest for you. And it's another meteorologist who has a unique role. Joe, what can you tell us about him? Joe Martucci: Yeah, so we're going to welcome on Mark Elliott, who is the principal meteorologist for at and T, the phone company we're going to talk about. Why do phone companies need meteorologists? Trust me, they do. Mark's going to explain all about that. Mark is a, fellow Rutgers guy, so always very happy to have fellow Rutgers guys on the podcast. You may know him from the Weather Channel. He was on camera meteorologist for over a decade on the Weather Channel and still freelances there. So we're really happy to have him on and, talk about his unique position here on the across the sky podcast. Matt Holiner: Yeah, I actually got to work with Mark a little bit when I was interning at the Weather Channel back in the summer of 2013. Looking forward to chatting with him again and getting caught up. But for this week, that's going to do it for across the sky. On behalf of Lee Enterprises and my fellow meteorologist, Joe Martucci, Sean Sublette, and Kirsten Lang, thanks for listening, everyone. Have a great week and we'll catch you here again real soon.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

For sports fans who also play in fantasy leagues, monitoring the weather forecast can make the difference between winning or losing. Starting a player in fantasy baseball when a rainout is possible could lead to no points at that position. And picking a quarterback that's playing in a dome vs. a snowy or windy location could lead to a lot more points. Kevin Roth, Chief Meteorologist for RotoGrinders.com​, uses his weather knowledge to help fantasy sports players and sports betters decide who to start or sit and which games to wager on. Roth shares how he got into the industry, the types of sports he covers, and some of his most challenging forecasts. He also provides tips you can use before your next round of games! More episodes about weather and sports The weather makes a difference in sports. You can bet on that Football weather stories with ESPN's Kris Budden How weather forecasts impact Major League Baseball How the weather impacts the Nathan's Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest Hitting the links? Learn the many ways weather impacts the game of golf Heat and football: Here's what athletes should know to stay safe We want to hear from you! Have a question for the meteorologists? Call 609-272-7099 and leave a message. You might hear your question and get an answer on a future episode! You can also email questions or comments to podcasts@lee.net. About the Across the Sky podcast The weekly weather podcast is hosted on a rotation by the Lee Weather team: Matt Holiner of Lee Enterprises' Midwest group in Chicago, Kirsten Lang of the Tulsa World in Oklahoma, Joe Martucci of the Press of Atlantic City, N.J., and Sean Sublette of the Richmond Times-Dispatch in Virginia. Episode transcript Note: The following transcript was created by Adobe Premiere and may contain misspellings and other inaccuracies as it was generated automatically: Fantasy football is in full swing now and we are talking all about that's impacting the weather with somebody whose sole job is to work in fantasy sports and what weather means to it. I'm meteorologist Joe Martucci from the lead weather team. Join with me is Matt Holiner out in the Midwest and Sean Sublette over in Richmond, Virginia. You guys play fantasy football daily. Fantasy football? No, I'm too old. No one. No, no. Here's the thing. I would. It's not that I don't want to do it, but I feel like if I wanted to do it well, I would have to spend more time on it than I want to spend on it. Does that fall? Understand? Is that figure? If I did it just a little bit, I would be bad. And I don't have. I. I'm for old school might just but the line that's it. Did they cover? Did they not? But nowadays there's like all these second and third derivative things. You can bet on. He is such and such going to get ten yards in the third quarter if it's raining. I mean, there's all that kind of stuff now. So that might I'm kind of just. Did they cover or did they not cover? Although I do. I will do the over under one store. I do like the over unders fund. Yeah. Yeah. But I had Sean I'm totally with you with the fantasy sports. You know, I actually did it the most in high school. I go when I had the most free time back in the old high school days. I did it in fantasy baseball, fantasy football. And then I laid off as a gone to college. I laid off the the fantasy baseball and just it fantasy football. And I did it for a couple of years out of college. But then I just got busier and busier. And again, I enjoyed it. But it's one of those things I maybe enjoyed it too much, and I always got frustrated when I wasn't doing good and I felt like I had to commit more time to it in order to do well. And as I started to do worse because I couldn't spend as much time on, it's like I'm not I'm just not going to do it. I don't like losing. I hear you, man. I used to do like, size it, I think had some kind of fantasy. Oh, wow. Sports Illustrated. Yeah. It was like a basic HTML web page. It was a long time ago. Yeah, I used to do three fantasy football leagues, then went down to two, and now I'm just in one. I'm the commissioner of a fantasy football league that we've been doing for 12 years. So this is a serious line and it's a 14 team. So if you're not the fantasy football, 14 teams is on the bigger and for a number players in there but we have fun in this year actually we just got a trophy for the first time or and it is a we like trophy I don't have the fortune you know So anyway enough about our fantasy football. We'll talk to you about your fantasy sports team or your daily fantasy sports with Kevin Roth from rotogrinders.com. He is a meteorologist who like he says in the in the interview here just fell into it one day and has loved it ever since with Alfred you again turn it over and we are really happy to welcome on our guests today Kevin Roth. He is an Emmy award winning broadcast meteorologist in Houston, Texas. And his love of weather and sports took him in a very unique direction. Evan is a sports meteorologist for Rotogrinders.com. That means fantasy sports and more. His sports centric weather forecasts have been featured on Weather Channel, Fox Weather, CBS Sports, Forbes and more, including this very podcast year cabin. And all of his sports weather analysis can be found on Twitter or X, whatever you're calling it nowadays at having Roth w x happen. Welcome to the show. And am I going to win my fantasy football season here? Rethink As long as you're paying attention to the weather, I like your chances. Thanks for having me on. I'm excited to kind of chat about, you know, how I've ended up in this weird niche that I've got. Yeah, let's dive into it. Because, you know, I think, you know, I think of myself, I use Yahoo fantasy sports and I see that little weather icon on there. And me as a meteorologist, I'm like, Oh, it's like all these other, you know, iPhone generic weather app stuff on there. But if you really are in the game of fantasy sports and sports betting, you know, weather does play a role and you'll want to pay attention to it. So where did you go to school? How did you get interested in the weather and what brought you to Roanoke? Yeah, it was a weird journey to get here, but I've always wanted to to be a TV meteorologist my whole life, even when I wasn't sure how. You know, just as a kid, like, what do you want to be? I was like, I want to do that. And sure enough, that ended up going to school, got my master's degree at Mississippi State in meteorology and started doing the normal TV grind, small markets and Mississippi up to Louisiana. And eventually I landed in in Dallas and I thought, okay, this is this is what I want to do. I want to do the TV gig forever. And then I randomly got an email from a friend who said, Hey, I've got a random coworker who's looking to hire a meteorologist for something. I don't even know what it is, but you should reach out. And I was like, okay, well, you know, why not? And I reached out and they said they needed one who loves weather and sports, but also was, you know, down to just kick back and drink a beer. And I was like, well, that that is me. It's that is entirely me. And that's how I got linked up with with the Rotogrinders team started our time and it's just been growing and building. And you mentioned those icons. You know, when you look at Yahoo, it turns out people have a need for legitimate sports weather information, not just, you know, stupid little icon with rain that may or may not help anyone. But yeah. So, you know, tell us about Rotogrinders, the Web site besides the weather. What can you find on there? Yes, Rotogrinders is primarily for folks who play daily fantasy sports, like on DraftKings and band tool. So these are often, you know, more invested in more intense fantasy players. And Rotogrinders gives people the plays, the information, the choices. It breaks down everything you could fathom. And I'm kind of the weather arm of that company. I'm just separate, you know, a little art of of that website that says, oh, by the way, while you're factoring out all these other things, keep in mind, winds are going to be 20 miles per hour in this game. And that could have, you know, impacts X, Y and Z. Hey, Kevin, Sean, over here. Now we're getting into football season or we're in football season. I'm imagining this is the busiest time. But is is that is that a, you know, incorrect? As I know, baseball obviously has as a big impact. You've got wind, you've got humidity, you've got heat. But in terms of how busy you're going to be, is this kind of prime time. So I think I'd say that NFL, once you get into football, that's when I have the greatest audience, because fantasy football is massive compared to, say, fantasy baseball, which is, you know, kind of a much smaller community. But I'm definitely busiest during baseball season because it's every single day there's, you know, 12 to 15 games, seven days a week and baseball games get legitimately rained out. That's something you don't see in football all the time. But in baseball, you play these guys in fantasy and the game gets rained out. You get zero points. So that is that is really when I am at my most important is during those Reynolds and then Kevin for football what are the main things that you're looking at What is your audience looking for as far as the weather information for football games? I think the audience is getting smarter. It used to be people would say, Oh, it's it's really cold in this spot. And the truth is the temperature doesn't really matter. Rain and snow has some impact on the game, but rain and snow and poor footing impacts the offense and the defense in particular snow, which is the one element that only impacts the offense is the wind. That is the only time when those quarterbacks drop back and throw the ball. If those winds are sustained 15 to 20 miles per hour or higher, you see significant downgrades in passing yards in total scoring. Those are the games that we really try to target and those are also the games that are easier to forecast for days out. So that helps the sports betting a bit as well. Or is with rain, do you really know if it's going to rain specifically? At one point at one time or four days out? Probably not. But with wind you can have a pretty good idea in advance. Tell us what your day is, white or football season here and are there other sports, you know, in the fall that you're looking at, you know, being after most of the fantasy baseball season, is it really just football in October and November? So tell us what a week looks like for you now, now that we're kind of closing our baseball season still, the first thing is wake up. Look at the forecasts for football. I daily keep things updated because as far as sports betting goes, people want to know this information as it comes out. It started off with my job. I could just give one update a week before the game and everyone's like, Oh, this is great. But as you start giving out that content, people of course want more and more of that content. So I keep the the forecasts up essentially all week long. Twitter hits. I do PR hits like kind of what I'm doing now in a sense, weather and sports is super interesting. People want to talk about it. So part of my job is not just giving the weather, but it's also using weather as an in or PR to help my company. So that's why I'm on the Weather Channel and Fox Weather and these various podcasts letting people know that there is a spot where you can find good sports weather information and then hopefully people come over to Rotogrinders and take a look at that and seeing what else the site offers. So is there kind of a slower time once we get baseball and football, which I think are the other two busy outdoor seasons? Do you go into a slower time there in late winter, early spring? You know, football's done. Baseball hasn't started spring training yet. Is that is that a time to kind of regroup or are there other little things going on out there? Well, there's always golf. Yeah. In general, I'd say that is a slower time, but that's when people start asking about, you know, how's the soccer game look? How's the golf, how's the NASCAR? You know, there's there's always some outdoor sporting event to to forecast for. And a lot of these sports golf in particular has a massive weather impact on those winds in particular. So there's always content to be had. But during those slower times, that's when I can set up a lot of the PR work that I do as well. And Kevin, just to clarify, are you the only meteorologist I wrote a Grinder's or are you old and if you are, are you looking to expand anytime soon? And you know of any other meteorologists out there that are focused on fantasy sports like you maybe not at Rotogrinders, but at other places. So I'm the only one that that does it for Rotogrinders. And it is, you know, seven days a week. It's it's got its perks because I'm working from home. But it also is especially during baseball season, it's a grind seven days a week and it's pretty high stakes with rain outs. I don't know of anyone else who is currently doing it. I've seen some other folks kind of dabbling in in sports weather, but to my knowledge, I think I'm the only one who consistently is cranking that out and who is paid to do that job. And I'm happy with that. That works for me. Kevin You know, I as someone in New Jersey, you know, we were the first to legalize sports betting. Yeah, back in. What was it now? I can't remember five or six years ago. So we're very used to it here in New Jersey with the sports betting. But I want to talk to explain to people how your job or does it differ between actual sports betting on the event and daily fantasy sports? Are there different things people are looking for when it comes to football season in that? It's a great question. I think the biggest difference is that for daily fantasy sports, you're essentially making these lineups and these players salaries are set each and every week at the start. So you pay $8,000 for this good player, whereas sports betting, the lines are always evolving. So they'll say, okay, we're expecting 50 points total in this football game, but if the forecast starts showing high wins, then that total will begin to drop. And by the time you get to Thursday, it's 48 points and by Friday it's 46 points. And as that total drops, you're losing your opportunity to get your money in at a good time, at a smart line. So for sports betting, you need to be able to get the information earlier and still be certain that that that is going to happen. You don't want to make a bet where the weather never comes through for you, but you need that content earlier for sports betting. Whereas for fantasy sports, so long as you know it by Sunday morning, that's fine. On that note, I've got some friends who do a lot of commodity forecasting, you know, whether it's agriculture or agribusiness energy trading. And they will tell me it's like, you know what, Shawn Sousa knew GFC drops. I see the markets move this way. I see the markets move that way. Is there anything similar to that in sports betting like, oh, the new GFC has come in, it's windier, the line has dropped just like you alluded to. Or is that still not quite. Are we still not quite there yet? Yeah, I don't think that most people are that in-tune or that advanced with the forecast yet. I would say if anything moves, it might be like when I put my article out, like I want to get my forecast out. I think the average band is kind of just looking at those icons like we talked about. They're not that invested in it and gradually people are learning, eh, that it does matter and B they're learning what matters as well. They're learning that it's the wind and not so much the rain. They're learning the things that really do matter. Awesome. Well, thanks a lot so far, Cavendish. It's all good stuff. I'm learning a lot. You could check him out again on Rotogrinders. We're gonna take a brief break and come back on the other side. You're listening Across the Sky podcast. And welcome back, everybody, to the Across the Sky podcast with the Lee Weather team. You can find new episodes of the Across the Sky podcast every Monday on your favorite news website or wherever you get your podcasts. And we are talking with none other than Kevin Roth from Rotogrinders, meteorologist for Rotogrinders. Yes, a sports betting and fantasy site does have a meteorologist and Kevin's been explaining all series. It's a wide juicier. So, you know, Kevin, when you're you know, it looks like you're doing a lot of videos here. You know, people they can't see it now, but you're in front of a green screen at your house. Tell me what it's like making these videos. Is it are people giving you requests for videos? Are you determining what's going out? How does that work? I'm kind of my own boss in the in the weather department, so I just find high impact events, whether it's this weekend and football, I guess this podcast is airing a little later. But whether it's a weekend in football or a golf event or whatever it is, it's a high enough impact event and there's a weather forecast you can get out. People want the information, they'll share the information, and it just kind of grows organically that way. With the green screen, everything, it's kind of amazing, right? Like how low the cost of technology is to produce videos now. I mean, you know, you don't need the full TV studio. They're great, obviously. Right? We all have experience and it's are wonderful. But what's your setup like at home and how much did it cost you? Oh, it was nothing. I mean, I've got a pop up green screen that, you know, is maybe 100 bucks. I got a webcam and a microphone and and that's all I really need to get things done. And we do have I got to give a shout out to wrote about it. We have a great production team that can help. They put together a lot of the videos. So I just basically go in front of my green screen. I talk about the forecast and then they make it look really pretty. So shout out, shout out to the behind the scenes crew. Yeah, shouts Roto Grind. Yeah. And as far as graphics go, are you using any kind of all weather graphics package or is it the folks are Rotogrinders kind of helping create the graphics for you? Yeah, they're creating the graphics for me and that might be the next step for me is to be able to create all of my own content. I'm not quite there yet, and as far as needing to do that because I'm happy with the setup with Rotogrinders, but that'd be the next setup if I could somehow get a max box or something and have legitimate up to date, you know, weather graphics, it'd be fantastic. I'd love that. You have any interesting stories about one particular event or a couple of particular events that went really well? And conversely, if you want to talk about it, maybe not so well, I mostly have ones that have gone bad with you. You know, the forecast that you hit, you're expected to hit them so those don't stand out. It's the ones that go wrong, that stand out, because I've got 60,000 people on Twitter barking at me when it goes wrong. So those those are the ones that I remember. There's been rain outs. You know, I'm thinking in baseball in particular, the Washington Nationals famous for weather shenanigans, they have postpone the game for rain when they did not get a single drop of rain. So I had the game is it was all green. It was all good. Nothing could go wrong. They postponed the game. It never rained and you know, people don't understand why it was postponed. They just know that you were wrong and the game got postponed. So, you know, I hear about that. There was a postponement a few years ago in San Diego for rain. It result. I don't know if it barely drizzled. I don't even know how they postponed it, but they're just not used to drizzle there. So there's been some some ones that stand out on the negative end just because I clearly remember those moments. Well, yeah, I got to imagine, too, you're probably doing some of these international games, too, right? And how did that work out for you? That can be a bit of a struggle because my usual tools like the the RR model and a lot of these things that I generally used or North American forecasting, well, that doesn't apply. So that can be a bit of a struggle. The weather patterns are very different. Golf is a big one where they're always in the UK or Scotland, you know, they're always somewhere. While that seems like those can be a struggle, plus the timing of those is at odd times when I might apt to stay awake later than I want to or wake up earlier than I want you to get the latest data. And then I have for Major League Baseball and NFL. We're going to go with both most challenging place to forecast for. Is there one that stands out You were always that gives you more trouble more often than not in the NFL and MLB. Yeah, and MLB, it is most definitely in Washington. And it's not so much the weather pattern. It's it's the organization. Some organizations like the Twins, they've got meteorologists on staff and they are so well prepared and they communicate the expectations and what they plan to do about rain that's coming. And other organizations like the Washington Nationals, they give you enough that they give you nothing and they just will postpone at the drop of a hat. Or maybe they'll wait out the rain for 5 hours. You just have no idea. And that's the challenging part of my job sometimes is not just nailing the weather, but trying to figure out the organization and response to the weather That is every bit as important for fantasy players, but it's a whole lot harder to figure out. And then as far as football goes, you know, you've got some good ones, man. Buffalo might be buffalo in the wintertime. You know, you get those snow bands or it might be feet of snow, or if they're just on the other edge, it might be an inch. Yeah, it's it is just a sharp delineation and forecasting for Buffalo is always fun and kind of terrifying. Now I want to go back to the stadiums. You're like, is that just experience over time? Like what the threshold is for postponing or do you actually meet with the teams? How does that work? It's just learned experience over time. And I think that is is one thing. I've been doing this for ten years that I've really started to learn to get an understanding of how certain organizations work, which organizations communicate better, which organizations are more patient, like the Colorado Rockies, they'll wait out anything. They're a fantastic organization. Or even if I see storms in the forecast, I know unless it floods in that ballpark, they're going to get that game in. And that just comes with with doing this year in and year out. There's also incredible microclimates in these various ballparks. Whereas in Wrigley, if the winds are blowing out in Wrigley, this is a massive, massive advantage to hitters, whereas there are other ballparks like in San Francisco, they built that park to minimize wind impacts. So the same wind blowing out at 10 to 15 miles per hour does almost nothing in one ballpark or in the other one. And it has a massive impact. And you just got to learn those those differences. Yeah, I was thinking about that, too, with regard not just to baseball, but football. I mean, all these I mean, we don't have football stadiums nowadays that are open on one end and anymore those are pretty much a bygone era. But I always think about the swirling nature of wind and a high wind impact. And in your experience doing this for ten years and there's a high wind event and I see high wind 15, 20, not you, not dangerous, Right. But is there a consistency to like, okay, I know the wind is going to be from this direction and it's going to be about this speed. So this consistently does X or Y and this stadium or that stadium with regard to football, because from my mind I'm like, well, if it's a it's a stadium encircled and it's a we're going to down I always have trouble with that do those microclimate what what have you learned with respect to that over the years. That's a great question and it's it matters, you know, what stadium you're talking about. I can think of some on the negative end like in Cleveland when those winds come in it it swirls. It has a huge impact in Cleveland in particular. And there are there are some places where I've learned it matters a lot. And I also have a tool where I've it's called Weather Edge. And essentially we've pulled all the data from every single game in each stadium, all of the weather data. And we've seen, okay, if the winds are 15 to 20 miles per hour from this direction, this is how it's impact passing yards, scoring. And so it can help me digest what the impact is because I've got the statistics on on all of it. Moneyball. Yes. Yes. So I want to know. Right. So it's Sunday, right? It's NFL Sunday. Are you like Scott Hansen and just sitting in one place all day long, not go into the bathroom waiting for all the games to finish? What what is it like for you? I'd I'd Sunday it's very busy leading up to kick off you know like trying to get the forecast out and doing all the PR hits and getting the tweets out. I generally just get to enjoy the games. But if there is weather games, if there's rain games or win games, I want to watch them. I want to see how that 20 mile per hour wind impacted this game. I want to see how the team adjusted their game plan because of the rain. So I tried to make a conscious effort to watch any impact to weather games, but I still do it, you know, as a fan just as much as I'm doing it. You know, as a professional. I'm going to follow up, too, because we didn't actually ask this question. Are you doing college football as well? Yeah, yeah, yeah. This seems like a lot more places are slightly. BERNERO The space is so many games. There's so many games are you do it all the yeah one so yeah I'm trying yes I'm trying it's much harder to keep up consistently with the forecast. I'm not admittedly a massive college football fan. So first you know Mike All right. This school, I don't know where it is, so I got to Google, right? Where is this school? And like, do they have a dome? And I got to Google, you know, do they have a dome? And it's it's a Ross s and I'm it's one of those things. This is new to me the college football I've only done for a couple of years. And as I learn just like I've learned through MLB and NFL, I'll get better at it. But right now, that is it's kind of the bane of my existence. It's college football. Yeah, because I'm thinking of like Wyoming, like they're 7200 feet high places, Crazy stuff, you know? Yeah. Always windy. Yeah. It's it's fun because you can get some really wild games. But also if I have a weakness, it's my lack of knowledge in that sport, you know. Oh, it's going to be windy here. So take the under Well turns out these two teams just run the wildcat and they don't pass anyway. So then the winds don't matter. You know, I don't know those nuances in college like I do the other sports. And then, Kevin, I'm curious about how much the wind direction does matter because you're talking about the orientation of the stadiums. Like, I would think that the wind speed itself is probably the biggest factor about how strong the winds are, regardless of direction. But how big a role do you think wind direction does play into football games and baseball? You're right. You know, it's wind strength first and foremost, and then it's orientation. But in baseball, the two are tied in, Right? We don't care how strong the winds are in baseball, we care. Are the winds blowing now and are they going to carry it all, run balls or are they blowing in and they're going to suppress homeruns? So in baseball, those two things are tied in. And equally important, whereas in football, as a general rule, it's a crosswind that is most impactful because if you get these winds parallel with the field and sure, one team is at a disadvantage and they're throwing into the wind, but the other team has the wind at their back and they can they can move the ball pretty efficiently. And then of course, that switches through the game. But if you get a crosswind, that's both teams, you get a 20 plus mile per hour crosswind. Any throw over 20 yards is not on a line that's going to get blown off course and it leads to more incompletions or more turnovers and then going off for college football because I think I open the can of worms that I didn't mean to, but I'm thinking about like I can't read what it's called by Dave the college basketball game every year it's on an aircraft carrier outside. You know, I'm talking about I do know the basketball game. Yeah. Yeah. It's amazing that you what do you do for that? How does that work? Yeah, I don't know. That's the other problem with college football is that there are all these games where you think it's the home team's game, but it turns out they're playing at a at a neutral site. I'm just basically trying to keep my head above water and give people some semblance of what to expect in college football. And I would say my expertise certainly lies in baseball, NFL and PGA gods. So college basketball on the aircraft carrier? Not really. Not not really the forte yet. There are some fun niche forecasts like the Winter Classic in the NHL is an outdoor event. And you know, if it's really cold and the goalkeepers sit there in the freezing cold or everybody else is skating around and warming up at the goal is just they're freezing like is that could impact him. That's a good point. Yeah. Nice. Yeah. Nathan's hot dog contests all my guys. Yeah. Is it going to be 90 degrees when these guys are choking down hot dogs? That's give me the under there. You're not eating 72 hot dogs. If it's 94, I'm going to follow up on that. So what do you think of this year's hot dog eating contest with the rain delay? It was the first ever it was amazing. That was like that was my Christmas. We had my Twitter was blow it up. People like, what do we do? Wrath is are they going to come back? Oh, I really enjoyed that. And I do love kind of those events in baseball. They've got the Field of Dreams game where they go out into Iowa. Yeah, Iowa and they've got the corn arounds. And I was telling everyone about corn sweat, how that corn leads to really high dew point, high humidity. And a high dew point is good for the ball carrying. And so I was like, all right, you know, take the overseer, We got the corn sweat overs and they must hit like eight home runs in that game. And so the corn sweat overs were were a fantastic bet. And David, I'm thinking about some of the other podcasts that we've done talking about weather in sports and some of the other sports that have come up have been horse racing and NASCAR. Do you do anything with those a little bit? Again, I'd say I more so dabble in that. There is a big demand for it, but I'm not too familiar with horse racing and I'm not too familiar with NASCAR. So if people ask me, I'll forecast for it. But I don't truly know what impact that has and how we can bet on those things. And that's the thing about sports weather is that if you don't fully understand both sides of it, both the weather and the sport itself, then you're not going to be able to give and communicate really good advice. So those sports just aren't my niche, at least not yet. I think that's all we got. Unless. Shawn, you have a final question. No, I am good. This has been fabulous. Yeah, I can hang out with you guys, so I guess we could do this for another 30 minutes. This is a blast. I mean, we might have. Maybe we'll have you for the hot dog eating contest. A part to bring a part to those I love. Now, this is great. I'm trying to think if there's anything we haven't achieved. Anything you want to add? Well, okay, but I'll. I'll throw this out. I mean, I think they're going be some people listening to this. You know, one thing we like about this podcast is exposing people to other jobs. And meteorologists have besides the guys on TV because that's their most familiar reporters, our media folks and the bi people business like and weather and sports. That's two things I love. Oh yeah. And advice for people. I mean, I guess that could be creating competition for you. But people who want to get into where where you are and want to, you know, look at this world of weather and sports. You have any advice for people who are looking to come in to this world? Because I think it's only going to be growing. Sounds like you could use some pretty. Yeah. So advice for folks who want to get into this world of weather and sports. Yeah. Well, whether it's you know, whether and sports or just to weather and fill in the blank with your passion whatever it is, there's probably a market for it. And if it's weather and sports and you just put out good free content and create a name for yourself, like that's what it's all about. And I'm fortunate to have and a first mover advantage. I was the first person doing it and that certainly helped. But if you just get your name out there, anyone is starved for content these days, right? Any and all media sources are looking for content. So if you're willing to do free work to build your brand and build your name, that will eventually lead to paid work. I feel confident in saying that I agree. Good, good life advice. You're of right on, guys. Sports. It's so fun. Every day I wake up and I'm like, What's the exciting sports weather thing going to be today? But it's a great job. Yeah, no, totally. And since we you know, since I reached out to you, I've been following you on on Twitter and just some like you pointed out. And so it's it's it's relevant. It's just kind of what it's like to see sports and sports betting, whether it's great. I love it. So I really appreciate you coming on and sharing with us about this and a different way to look at weather forecasting. But you can go to rotogrinders.com, That's where you can find Karen or his Twitter or page, whatever you're calling it. That's at Evan Roth W AX cabin. We love that I'm beyond and I think we're going to bring you on for a part two at some point in the future. So so thanks a lot. I love it, guys. Thank you so much for having me. And if anybody's out there and you're thinking, all right, I'm fantasy sports, what do I do with this weather? If it's winds over 20 miles per hour, don't play the receivers, don't play quarterback, everything else, you're probably in pretty good shape. Good piece of advice. Thanks a lot, Carrie. We appreciate the time. Thank you. Hope you guys all loved that interview with Kevin And, you know, having a good point at the end with the Winter Classic. And it's always getting cold. I never thought of that. And as somebody who plays hockey, that actually makes a good point. If you're standing around all day and it's ten or 12 degrees, you may not be at your sharpest, But what did you think, Matt, what you think of the pod? Well, you know, again, we we've said this on every episode we've done with about how weather impacts sports and you can really dive into some some tiny details like he mentioned, the heat in Iowa, the corn sweat and the added humidity and how that impacts home runs. And then also his discussion about wind direction and wind speed. Now, wind speed is really the biggest impact when you look at baseball and football. And it was interesting, wind speed more but more so than wind direction, especially for football. And I never thought about that. It's more the crosswinds rather than being parallel with the football field, because those crosswinds impact both teams instead of one team occasionally having an advantage for half of the game and then a disadvantage the other half a game. So it's actually more impact, more crosswinds. But then I had to think like, you must have some crazy number of bookmarks because you have to look at every stadium if you want to figure out which wind direction is going to be, most of it is going to be a parallel win or is it going to be across the field? And so you have to think about the orientation of each stadium. So I imagine it's this crazy number of bookmarks somewhere with all these different stadiums to see their orientation. So you can I mean, it sounds like you need some help. And I feel like that I think they need to expand their weather team. I think they need to hire some additional meteorologists. I bet there's some folks listening to this podcast will be like, hey, I'll sign up for that. Yeah, I suspect you're right. Yeah, hopefully. Yeah, it's a cool website. It is. Twitter page is good because he does get into the nitty gritty of some of these games when he like rain out the ballparks. And so she has again to football. You know we continue to get into football season and snow starts coming everyone loves that first snow game of the year, which is usually somewhere at a college football stadium in the Rockies in like late October, early November. And then it starts writing as it go on that that's what we have for this episode of the Across the Sky podcast. You can always send us your questions via email at podcast at Leeds. And that we also have a phone number as well. Leave a voicemail. We have actually gotten a couple of voicemails. We haven't shared any on the pod, but if you did want to do that, you certainly could. Our phone number for that. It's 6092727099 again. 6092727099. As we say, every episode, we've got more episodes for you on what's happening. We have lined up for you and as we go into the month of October, we are going to be talking about what we can learn from the past with Mike Mann. Dr. Mike Mann he's most, I would say, famously known for the hockey stick diagram of greenhouse gas emissions and rising temperatures on the earth. That's coming up. We'll have more for you as well as we go deeper into the fall. So for Sean Sublette and Matt Holiner and Kirsten Lang, who couldn't be with us, I'm meteorologist Joe Martucci. And thanks again for listening the Across the Sky podcast.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Inflatable bounce houses have become a staple at birthday parties and other celebrations around the world. It doesn't take much wind for them to be blown over though. Since 2000, there have been at least 136 wind-related bounce house incidents worldwide, resulting in 489 injuries and 28 deaths. Perhaps just as surprising, many states in the U.S. have inadequate or no regulations regarding bounce house safety. How much wind does it take to blow over a bounce house? What weather events are causing these incidents? How can we make bounce houses more wind-resistant and what can you do to help ensure your children stay safe? Dr. John Knox from the University of Georgia joined the podcast this week to answer these questions and share more of his research on this unique topic. More information Read the research: Wind-Related Bounce House Incidents in Meteorological, Regulatory, and Outreach Contexts Weathertobounce.com website: Information on past incidents, policy information, and safety recommendations for your next bounce house rental. We want to hear from you! Have a question for the meteorologists? Call 609-272-7099 and leave a message. You might hear your question and get an answer on a future episode! You can also email questions or comments to podcasts@lee.net. About the Across the Sky podcast The weekly weather podcast is hosted on a rotation by the Lee Weather team: Matt Holiner of Lee Enterprises' Midwest group in Chicago, Kirsten Lang of the Tulsa World in Oklahoma, Joe Martucci of the Press of Atlantic City, N.J., and Sean Sublette of the Richmond Times-Dispatch in Virginia. Episode transcript Note: The following transcript was created by Adobe Premiere and may contain misspellings and other inaccuracies as it was generated automatically: Welcome, everybody to the Across the Sky podcast, our Lee Enterprises National Weather Podcast. I'm Joe Martucci based in New Jersey. Along with me this week, meteorologist Sean Sublette over in Richmond, Virginia, and Matt Holiner in Chicagoland. Here we are talking about bounce houses and the weather. Bounce houses were first invented in 1958. I think all of us here on the podcast have been in a bounce house. You've probably been in a bounce house before, but there are some weather concerns with bounce houses. In fact, somebody in a whole research study on this wind related bounce house incidents, it's not just that one viral video you see on TikTok or Instagram of a bounce house flying in the air like it's a cow in the tornado and one of those bad weather movies. It is a is a real deal here. There have been 209 injuries in the United States from 2000 to 2021, from bounce houses in relation to the weather actually knocking over to bounce house or causing it to fly around. And three fatalities, unfortunately. So for this episode of the Across the Sky podcast, we are talking with the lead researcher of this project, John Knox. He's coming up right now. And we are really happy to have on John Knox to talk to us all about the bounce houses in the wind, in the weather, a very relatable podcast. I think it's going to be John is a Josiah MIT Megs excuse me distinguished teaching professor of geography and undergraduate coordinator of the Atmospheric Sciences Program at the University of Georgia in Athens, Georgia, where he's been on the faculty since 2001. John has authored over 65 peer reviewed research and education articles, is also the coauthor of the award winning Introductory College level Textbook Meteorology Understanding of the Atmosphere. He is a fellow of the American Meteorological Society. That is a big deal for everybody listening, and he has many former and current students, including ABC News chief meteorologist Ginger Zee, Colorado State University, atmospheric sciences professor and Jeopardy! Tournament of Champions winner Rush Schumacher. And more. So John, thanks for joining the podcast here. We really appreciate it. Yeah, thanks for inviting me. Yeah, no, absolutely. And we know you're also housed in the the same building as one of our complimentary podcast, the Weather Geeks podcast hosted by Marshall Shepherd. So we appreciate you taking some time away from Marshall and we'll be with us. Thanks so much. Yeah, well, I'll be teaching with him in just a little bit over an hour. Awesome. Now we love Marshall. He's done a lot for the field of meteorology and we are we're fans of his podcast as well. We'll talk about your your research study I was saying is off camera. I was reading the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Monthly magazine, which if you're in the weather world, it's kind of like our our weekly or monthly guide to what's going on in weather in terms of research and who's doing what. And I came across your article and I really enjoyed it. I thought it'd be a good podcast topic. It's called Wind Related Bounce House Incidents in Meteorological Regulatory and outreach context. It's about bounce houses. I mean, who doesn't love bounce houses? You know, my if birthday party you jumping on a bounce house you know you're hanging out in the summer day but you know, kind of talking about some of these dangers associated with it when it comes to the weather and also some of the legality around it, too, and what different states are doing. So I just thought it was really fascinating. So I want to ask you what got you into talking about bounce houses? It was literally a Facebook joke in the beginning. A colleague of mine who I never met at that point, you know, just Facebook friends named Tom Gill at the University of Texas, El Paso was posting one day about dust devils because they have dust devils out in El Paso that had lifted up a bounce house, actually brought it up off the ground and thrown it through the air. And he was posting about this because he does aerosol research and he just said, well, you know, Bounce House is just a really big aerosol particle, right? Like a dust particles just bigger. And I jokingly said, well, shoot, we ought to do a paper on this. It's I study the wind. I'm an atmospheric dynamics. And Tom does aerosol research. It seemed like a perfect combination. And then a couple of beats went by and then I private messaged him and I said, Tom, you know, that's maybe isn't the worst idea because nobody really had ever thought about the risks from wind related bounce houses, accidents, except when they make the news. Right. But from a research standpoint, there was there was nothing on it. And so then the questions were, how often does this happen? And once we started looking, they happen much more frequently than we thought. And so we decided to do research on it, including actually two generations of students here at the University of Georgia. One, they kind of started the research and then another group that helped finish it over time to where we were looking at these not just in the United States, but internationally, looked at what caused them. And as our group grew, they were they were asking policy related questions such as, you know, what are the what are the regulations? What do you have to do to have one of these things operating in your yard or at a carnival or something? And how does that differ in various states? Yeah, it snowballed. Basically. It went from one of those things like, ha ha. And then office like, that's not such a bad idea after all. Which kind of parallels the way science works, right? They say it's the aha moments are that, gee, that's odd. In our case it was the ha ha that went to the Aha. Yeah. What was pretty alarming to me when I was looking at your article was just how many cases. I mean I've seen videos of these have these bounce houses interacting with wind before, but I never realized how many times this has actually happened in just 20 years. The period that you all looked at this, it was pretty alarming how how frequently this occurred. So I'm curious, when you were looking at these cases, what were the wind speeds that were occurring when you had these incidents that led to injuries and deaths? The wind speeds were usually lower than you would expect, but with a caveat. Very few people are actually standing next to a bounce house with an anemometer measuring the wind speed when it blows. So what you have to do is you rely on the the nearest neighbor, basically the closest weather observation. And in those cases, it really depends. For example, I mentioned a dust devil. One way that these bounce houses go into the air, you can have a dust devil down the street with a wind of 40 miles an hour. Inside, it's a little swirl and the wind may be calm where you're at. So it's tough to get an exact number. But the numbers we found were frequently under the regulation levels for operating belts, houses. And that's because even in cases where the the winds are more what we call synoptic scale, larger scale, not just a dust devil, what will happen is that you'll have gusts or the forecast will be for winds, but they get gust here in the afternoon as we often see. And people just don't really realize when they're operating these things how easy it is for these High-Profile belts houses to go airborne or at least to get tumbled over. How come they haven't been required to be tied down in the first place? I mean, it would seem to me like you've got some effectively a balloon that's just sitting on the ground and you've got, you know, maybe these small 40 or £50 projectiles bouncing up and down inside of it. What do you do? You even know what some of the codes were for this? Oh, yeah. Yeah. We did a deep dive into the regulations. They vary on a state to state basis. There's no federal regulation, which ultimately regulation isn't always a good word. But yes, if you're hurt by something and it varies from state to state, you would like to see, you know, federal regulation on that. But yeah, even in our research, what we found was it was really kind of hodgepodge. 17 states at the time of our article didn't have any guidelines for bounce houses or actually excluded them specifically in regulations. They had to do with like amusement rides and things like that. 19 states, on the other hand, explicitly cited the what's the kind of the the the gold standard, which is the American Society for Testing and Materials standards, which do set limits on the wind speed in which inflatables should be used and have all kinds of requirements. But one of the problems with that is that those regulations specify winds of like you don't operate in more than 25 mile an hour winds. And we found some cases where nobody's going to know that the winds are going to be above 25 miles an hour. For example, I mentioned a dust devil or a case where the weather the weather forecast is for winds 10 to 20 and it gets a little gusty more than that in the afternoon due to daytime mixing. So, number one, we have a problem where states don't have regulations. Number two, we have states that have sometimes because of high visibility accidents, have put in regulations and they use the the standards that they should be using to regulate them. But number three, Mother Nature finds a way to tamp these things over or blossom into the air, even when the your official weather forecasts wouldn't necessarily say that the winds are at the levels expected. So it's kind of complicated. And, you know, if you go to your your your research here, there's a map of the United States and you break it down by level of law and laws or no laws, what states have these, you know, inflatable guidelines. So I see three states here to have no guidelines. It's Idaho, Wyoming and Alabama, your home state. What's that? Oh, yeah. And you're my home state. Yes. So I'm going to ask you two questions and I kind of relate to what you just said. So, one, we only see two deaths in those states, right? So between Idaho, Wyoming and Alabama, only two. Is it just because the population is not as high there? Is there something else to it? And then secondly, did you bring this up with any lawmakers about what was going on? Great questions. So it's hard because there aren't that many events to say, oh, these states don't have regulations, therefore people are are dying. Sometimes it goes the other way around where you had an incident with several injuries and then the state did get proactive. You know, people complained and then the state put in regulations. And so it's kind of hard to draw a 1 to 1 on that. But what we wanted to do was to collect this information so that people can be aware, the public can be aware of what the regulations should be, how even that's not everything that you need to do. You need to still be vigilant as a parent or your church carnival operator or whatever to make sure you're following the guidelines, but also to be weather aware because you can have really small scale weather events blow up that can cause a problem, whether it's thunderstorm outflow or winds on a nice day. But it's it's windy after a cold front. You've got some, you know, convective mixing dry convective mixing bring higher winds down. That's as far as we went. We haven't, you know, started our political campaign to do a national regulations. But what we did want to do was get enough information out there to the public, not just through a journal article, but through our own website. Weather to balance dot com where people can find out not only our our information that's in the paper, but a completely listing of all the accidents that have happened and the causes of them because there are multiple meteorological causes that usually are sneaky because it's like it's nice weather, it's just that the wind comes up for some reason. I could see you winning a lecture at an election. You know, with this corn, you can run on the Bounce House campaign. I think it's pretty bipartisan, right? I think I would like to think that, but probably the anti-regulatory crowd would get me on this one. Well, and John, yeah, there's so many different angles. You can look at this. And I'm curious, you know, with so many things that could be looked at during this research, I'm curious if you looked at when you had these injuries and deaths, were the these wind related incidents, did they have any impact on the number of people that were in the bounce house at the time? Because I imagine if there were more people in the bounce house that would weigh it down a little bit more and maybe it would be less likely that it would tip over in high winds versus maybe just having one or two little kids in there. It's more likely that it could be picked up by the wind. Did you look at all out of the number of people that were in these bounce houses when they were tipped over or lost it in the air? We weren't able to do that because nobody's counting. I really don't think any anybody standing at the door saying, Oh, there's 13 people, there's four, there's six. And also you'd have to do the wait. That sounds like a great experimental kind of thing to do in a in a laboratory or a wind tunnel. We can we can go to our friends in South Carolina at Ivy House maybe, and get them to do it. So unfortunately, we didn't have that information, but it isn't just ones and twos because the worst event ever for a wind related bounce house and that was in Tasmania as we were wrapping up this paper on the 16th of December and 2021, they were having an end of school event in Devonport, Tasmania. It was the end of school in December because of course the seasons are different, so it was getting out for the summer and this basically a middle school was having a an end of school party and they had a bounce house and Tasmania is just off the coast of Australia and so they were kind of near the water and everything and some kind of wind event happened and this is in litigation as far as I understand, still in Australia, but some kind of really small scale wind event came up that lofted that bounce house with a bunch of kids, a bunch of kids, not just one or two, about 30 feet in the air, and the kids fell out and six children died. And this was international news. This made The New York Times made everywhere. And so it showed that although in the beginning you think this is funny about us flying in the air, it really is a health threat. And it's not just ones and twos because there were six children that died, but there were others. I'm not sure I saw an exact count, but there were probably ten or 12 children in it. And so, no, that didn't keep it from going airborne. Wow. All right. Well, lots of information here to digest. We're going to have more on the other side of this. You're listening to the process. We are back with the Across the Sky podcast. New episodes come out every Monday, wherever you get your podcasts or on your favorite newsroom website. We are here with John Knox. He is a professor at the University of Georgia who did a research project all about bounce houses and the incidents caused by different types of weather. Very interesting here. We're going to pass it over to Matt, who has another question for John. So, Matt, take it away. John, I was curious just how you tracked down these 132 cases of wind related incidents from 2000 to 2021, like how did you uncover these? Because I imagine especially early 2000 went before social media. It was harder to know about these events and the fact that you did this on an international scale. It wasn't just in the US. So how did you track down these 132 cases? This was a case of how a research project just kept growing because we wanted to know first of all about the ones that we had seen. Some of the high profile cases have happened in Oceanside, New York, or in southeast Florida. But as we started searching, well, of course, what we did was we started Googling and we saw all these cases that were from outside the United States. And so we just kept expanding our search. And ultimately we were doing regular Google searches on dozens and dozens of keywords. And we even tried to do it in different languages if we could, or at least Spanish and we just kept getting more and more of these cases. China has had a bunch of them. And sometimes you'll find video from events from China as well. So we thought, Well, why stop with the United States? That's kind of ethnocentric, because it does seem like this is an international phenomenon. And in fact, some of the worst cases have happened, as we would say, overseas. Yeah, unfortunately, I'm looking at the stats you have here. There were more fatalities in China, in Australia than the United States. China had ten, Australia had seven. United States. Its rate here, you know, were you able to dive into the whether causes at all, like even in generalities for these other countries And what did you find there? Yes, and this was the case we're doing Meteorology in the 21st century is far preferable to the 20th century, because these days, not only can you Google the news and find things from anywhere in the world, it seems, but also we were surprisingly impressed with the amount of weather data that you can acquire internationally. So we found numerous sites that would allow us to zoom in on surface weather maps, not just for the U.S. as we're used to, but Asia, Australia, Europe, South Africa. And so we were able to get pretty definitive answers for a lot of the cases. You know, a majority of the cases we felt we had the right answer. And we went through a rigorous process of doing that. We had to really three different groups within our our research team independently analyze these cases. So we would look for a given event in, say, China. We would look at the surface weather map satellite if we could get it radar, if we could get it surface weather observations, and we would independently decide on which of the causes we thought it was, which could range anywhere from post cold frontal or thunderstorms or dust levels, as I've mentioned, or sea breeze related things or other things that are on the small scale to, you know, pretty much anything waterspouts. We found one with a hurricane and please do not go into the bounce house during a hurricane. Right. It's not safe. But anyway, so we had our list of potential causes and we would independently decide based on the data that we saw for what we got and if we could come to a determination, we were okay with that, too. And so we ended up with a chunk that were still unknown, but we thought that was pretty good for trying to do a global climatology, as it were, of these wind related bounce house accidents. Well, back to that point, how how forecast able are some of these very, you know, micro-scale events. I mean, we kind of understand the conditions that would lead to dust devils in terms of what's the surface made out of what is the boundary layer made out? You know, what's the boundary layer conditions? But, you know, to the to the end, you use a general public, they have no inkling what the boundary layer is, and they don't care if it's if it's a dry, you know, a dry surface, that that's not something that's in their head. So how predictable do you think some of this stuff is? I mean, obviously, thunderstorm outflow, hurricanes, sea breezes, those are kind of obvious to us. But what other kinds of things might might be missing? I think what we're missing, of course, is the same thing that weather forecasting is is missing even to this day, which is, as you said, the forecasting on very short time in space skills. And so some of that is still to be predicted in the future. Maybe there is a future where we can predict some of those things. In the meantime, though, for safety, that just means that people have to be more vigilant than they are. Studies have been done on belts, houses for other kinds of injuries, not wind related, but kids basically bouncing out of the house and breaking their arms and things like that. And the percentage of times that this happens when the adults aren't supervising is really hot. It's pretty close to 50%. And so this is our way of getting using the high profile events that make it onto the TV news where the bounce house is flying in the sky and any parent that sees that their heart goes, you know, somebody thump on it, it we're trying to raise awareness that they need to be careful because if they're standing at the bounce house and the gust front comes close and the winds start picking up, then even if there's not a forecast, there's no gust front warning or whatever, they're able to get the kids out because they are aware that wind is a risk. These things can go airborne. And somebody told them, you know, they better be vigilant about it. Yeah. And kind of going off of that and looking at more solutions, obviously, that's the first one. If you see the winds picking up, get everybody out as quickly as possible. But when you were looking at is there any way to better secure these bounce houses so that they're less likely that if the wind hits and the kids are still in there, they're less likely to tip over or fly off it? Can they be secured better? Yes. And so the ASTM standards talk about securing bounce houses. A lot of times we are suspicious of of some of these reports where we think that they weren't secured enough, that they weren't following the standards that are even printed on the bounce house. It says this is how you're supposed to secure them with sand bags and stakes. And so forth. So I think that there's a lot of improvement that can be done on that. And again, that's public awareness. If people are aware that you don't just inflate this thing, set it out in the yard and everything's fine and you can go inside and, you know, do something else while the kids are playing, then I think we can really cut down on this. And I should say for anybody that's thinking, well, you know, that doesn't sound like a lot of deaths and 132 events over 20 years, that's not that much. We're also trying to promote safety. That's beyond weather safety, because every year just in the United States, there are about 10,000 emergency room visits due to injuries from bounce houses that aren't weather related. But because kids break fingers, bones, whatever, bouncing them, they're actually as dangerous as trampolines. And those of us of a certain era remember when trampolines were really in and then they weren't so in because people started like breaking their backs and things. But bounce houses are viewed as being safe for some reason. You know, they they look nice and squishy, but kids are breaking their arms like crazy. Are you? No apologies to the bounce house people, but if parents are more vigilant, then we can cut down not just the one or two or three or six events that might happen in a year, but also thousands and thousands of emergency room visits that parents and kids still have to undergo. So we're also trying to promote safety beyond weather safety. You're getting into what was going to be. My next question is, did you see anything with weather in trampolines? I know trampolines are heavier, but they have you know, they have something there. And then also, did you actually test out any of these bounce houses for your research? Was a part of your research? Yes, we did. I'll start with that. First, we taught a research class for undergrads here at the University of Georgia. We do a team approach to our research and we actually read about houses twice and we bounced in them to see what would happen. And one of the things we noticed was even though it was secured properly and there wasn't much when it was just students bouncing around which are heavier than kids, we could watch the the stake in the sandbag. Everything kind of start to move a little bit and it's like, yeah, this might take a little more effort to secure than than we thought. So yes, we did try them out. We didn't get a huge fan and blow them over. That was my great hope. But we didn't we couldn't do that. And probably liability. They're undoubtedly a liability. We don't want our students to go flying in the air in the course of science. So we did try that out and let's go back to the other question on our dance about trampolines and trampolines. Well, as we've been studying bounce houses, Tom Gill and I and others have been trading more and more images of things that go blowing in the wind. And so while we didn't encounter too much about trampolines, there's one fantastic video from Colorado of air mattresses. There were dozens and dozens and dozens of air mattresses out for some event. And the wind came up in Colorado, probably some kind of gust front and the air mattresses just that. It was like cattle, you know, stampeding, but but in an elegant way and over and over in. And so, yeah, we've been trading videos and things like that. Fortunately, no people were hurt by the the stampede of the air mattresses. Yeah. And then, John, before we wrap up, I imagine there are probably some parents that are listening to this thinking now. Oh, boy. One more thing. I have to worry about the bounce house and my kid's birthday party blowing over, being blown in the wind. So I'm wondering, for parents, is there a way when you're trying to pick a company that you're going to rent a house from, is there a way or are there some qualifications? Again, maybe there's not any kind of any way they kind of get a heads up like these people are going to properly tie this thing down. So it will at least be less likely that it gets blown away. Like how can parents research that and maybe find one that's safer ASAP or bounce house and maybe a safer company that rents these bounce houses? And I'll I'll be clear about this. I think the companies with our experience because we had firsthand experience renting them here in Athens, the companies aren't necessarily the problem here. It's the follow through in terms of safety. And so what I would say is if parents are interested, we've got our one stop shop kind of website, whether it's about Starcom WEAA, thert0bounc ecom. And that's where you can find not just information on these incidents and where they've happened, but also the statutes and regulations per state. And so you find out what your state supposed to be doing. And then we also have safety information. So we have tips that are downloadable about the setting up of bounce houses. And so I think that that's where I would send people because I don't know of any other place where you can get that combination of, you know, where do they happen, what am I supposed to do? And then I think that parents could just compare the information they're getting from a company to what we say. And so if if, if they're for some reason not following the regulations a company, then the parents would know. But again, I think in the end it's going to be a situation where one of the best things that can be done is for the parents to be weather aware, understand that events can happen that aren't even forecast. We don't really get a lot of dust devil forecasts, for example, and just act with caution but still have fun. It's okay. I'm not the no fun guy. I understand. We're trying to keep people safe. You can have fun and you can keep people safe. You know, it's it's it all goes in conjunction. Now I'm looking at your website here. You actually there actually was a bounce houses that were I cover in New Jersey in Lakewood, New Jersey. That was your most recent one. I actually wasn't even aware of it. But you said it was caused by a sea breeze. We'd be interested in learning a little bit more about that. But before we, we, we go, we just want to say thank you, John, for coming on and speaking with us about this and bounce houses. We hope, you know, everybody who's listening here was able to take something about this. And, you know, there is some, you know, bounce houses are fun, but we want to make sure we're safe and you're definitely raising awareness of that. So on behalf of the whole podcast team, we really appreciate you coming on. Well, thank you. And I want to give a shout out to all my collaborators, Jada Smith, who is an undergrad student here now successfully graduated and gainfully employed, did a huge amount of work on the website. And Castle Williamsburg also did a whole lot of work. You know, forget other people as well. But I wanted to I wanted to acknowledge it was a group effort amongst different generations of students here in Georgia as well as Thomas. Yeah, absolutely right. John, thanks again for the time. We appreciate it. Thanks for having you. I said this in the beginning when we interviewed John. I'll say it again, I love this topic because it's something we can all relate to. It's also something we can pretty easily mitigate, you know, in terms of just being more safe with bounce houses and also just goes to show you don't need that much wind to knock it over, topple it over, or have it sent flying here and causing problems. So really great study by by John and he said Tom Gill, his partner who did they decided to do research on for this. Yeah I'm still struggling to wrap my mind about I was just the first thing that stood out to me when I read his research was just the numbers associated with it. I just did not realize it was this common. But you think of how common these things are. There's so many birthday parties going on and we do have a lot of high wind that there are a lot of thunderstorms. And that's the thing. You know, we don't even need a severe thunderstorm warning. That's where 60 mile per hour winds. But as John was mentioning, I mean, we're talking about winds with these that weren't necessarily with severe thunderstorm warnings, those 60 mile per hour winds, we're talking about more in that 40 mile per hour range. So you wouldn't even get warned about this necessarily. You can just have 40 mile per hour winds in a regular thunderstorm. You think about how many birthday parties with bounce houses and how many thunderstorm there are, and then you start to think, oh, yeah, this could happen a lot more. And you think about how people get injured. You don't even necessarily need to be in the bounce house to get injured. That bounce house falls over. Somebody's standing right next to it could be injured. So it's people just near the bounce houses can be injured as well. So this is just this like blew my mind. The thinking about how many people could be injured by these things. And that's not even talking about people just get injured using them. Like you put a bunch of kids in a bounce house, especially if you go over the the recommended number of people, the capacity of that bounce house people are just going to get injured that way. So things are a little bit hazardous. I haven't been one in years. I remember it being fun. But you do have to watch out and not only watch the kids to make sure not too many get in there, but stay weather aware. If you feel those winds picking up. I think it's a good idea to get the kids out and take a little break. You know, I've been in bounce houses as a child in the seventies and as a dad with a son in the in the aughts in the early teens and as a grown up, I could tell you it's a lot easier to get injured bouncing around there because you don't know where those kids are going. So that that's a risk. Great. But, you know, back to the weather issue, sometimes it's it's obvious, right? I mean, if it's generally a windy day to begin with, you've got to kind of think through this. But in his research, it showed things like a sea breeze or a dust devil. Now we know those things occur, but the precision to forecast those things is not very high. I mean, we can kind of say, oh, there's a sea breeze that might come in a little bit later, but whether that sea breezes five, ten, 20 miles an hour, two or 3 hours from now, that's tough to forecast. And you're not going to be able to forecast a dust devil. We are. We're a long, long way away from doing that. So I think that's one of the the keys here is sometimes it is kind of intuitive, I think. And we maybe we shouldn't put this thing up today. Other times it's like, wow, I really had not expected that teeny tiny gust to just show up. Yeah. Agreed. You know, I think to Sean maybe we need an across the sky bounce house for us. Maybe we should do a podcast and a bounce house. It's funny we mention this because in the podcast he brought up I guess there in South Carolina where they, they had this massive wind tunnel where they they build houses and they test them against the wind. And ironically enough, I did a story on that just a couple weeks ago. I sat down with the Angel Marco about that. So we should put them in touch with one another so we can get really cool video of bounce houses blowing around safely, safely where nobody is hurt. So we need to put them in touch with one another. Yeah, because I think this is a combination of a couple of things. One, figuring out ways to maybe better tie these things down, the proper ways to more accurately secure them so they're less likely to blown over. Maybe also you get into the people that and boy, that'll be an interesting topic Who designs is bounce houses and the shapes of these things. Is there a way you could design a bounce house made with a lower profile that is safer and less likely to be blown over because of the shape or the design of this thing? So these people that design the bounce houses, I wonder if there be they would like to get in on this research too, and maybe design something safer. I mean, the people that actually tie them down, the companies that rent these things out, better way to secure them. So it's a couple of things that can be looked at. I hope there's more research is done here. I think John has laid the groundwork for more research because this is literally a bigger issue than you think. I might be changing the world. We will see. But in all seriousness, do appreciate John coming on. I hope you all enjoyed listening to this as well. Remember, if you have listener questions, you can shoot us an email, a podcast, at least net and we will be happy to answer them. We as we go forward in the next couple of weeks, we'll be talking about more fall stuff as the leaves slow. We begin to turn here in September, but I'll be getting there as you go into October. November 12. More podcast topics for you in the weeks to come. Make sure to subscribe to Across the Sky Podcast wherever you get your podcast, and we'll have a new episode for you next Monday.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The devastating impacts of hurricanes on land are well known, but they cause changes to the oceans as well. While conventional thinking tells us that a hurricane cools the water after it passes, that's only partially true. The surface cools, but the deep ocean? It actually heats up. With the peak of hurricane season upon us, Sally Warner, Associate Professor of Climate Science at Brandeis University and Noel Gutiérrez Brizuela, a Ph. D. graduate from the University of California, San Diego, join the podcast to discuss their research on what happens as the storms move over the ocean and what it means for climate change. Read more at The Conversation: Hurricanes push heat deeper into the ocean than scientists realized, boosting long-term ocean warming, new research shows We want to hear from you! Have a question for the meteorologists? Call 609-272-7099 and leave a message. You might hear your question and get an answer on a future episode! You can also email questions or comments to podcasts@lee.net. About the Across the Sky podcast The weekly weather podcast is hosted on a rotation by the Lee Weather team: Matt Holiner of Lee Enterprises' Midwest group in Chicago, Kirsten Lang of the Tulsa World in Oklahoma, Joe Martucci of the Press of Atlantic City, N.J., and Sean Sublette of the Richmond Times-Dispatch in Virginia. Episode transcript Note: The following transcript was created by Adobe Premiere and may contain misspellings and other inaccuracies as it was generated automatically: Welcome, everybody to another episode of the Across the Sky podcast hosted by our Lee Enterprises weather team. I'm meteorologist Joe Martucci, based at The Press of Atlantic City on the Jersey Shore. Here it is, hurricane season. It's been hurricane season since the beginning of June, but now we're really starting to ramp it up the peak of hurricane season right around September the 10th. And this episode, we're going to talk about hurricanes. We're talking about it's impacts on warming the ocean and the deep ocean. And that's actually some research that really hasn't been done much in the past. We have to researchers Sally Warner and Noel Gutiérrez as well, who are on to talk to us about it here. We have Matt Holiner in the Midwest on the pod, Sean Sublette at the Richmond Times-Dispatch and Kirsten Lang at the Tulsa World. It was it was a good episode. It was kind of it was neat to have Sally, who's in Massachusetts and Noel, who's in San Diego, kind of come together from both coasts for this episode. Before we get going, Matt, Sean or Kirsten, anything we could say before we hop into the interview. But I think for me it was very interesting to dive into how you know and look. A lot of times what we focus on is the sea surface temperature. The keyword there is surface. And what their research focuses on is what's going on below the surface. And how do the hurricanes we we have a good understanding of how they impact sea surface temperatures. But what their research really focus on is how they're affecting the temperatures below the surface and the long term implications of that. So just like how this dived a little bit deeper into what we as meteorologists mainly focus on, which is what is happening at the surface. But you really get the full picture of what's going on in the long term implications of you have to dive down and look what's going on below the surface. And so it was really good to talk to them and hear the process about how they were measuring those temperatures as well. That was very interesting to hear. Yeah, it was interesting to hear about how not just how they did it, the shifts that they had to take to do this, but it's a good reminder of the time scales that we're working on here for their research. I mean, obviously, when we're all meteorologists, we know that warmer water fuels more hurricanes. But as you alluded to, Matt, we need to talk about the surface and and how far down is the surface before we start getting into the deeper water and pushing that relatively warmer water deeper down into the ocean. And these are all very important, fundamental long term questions there. They are just starting to bring forward. So it was really good to have them on. Yeah, I know. Dive too a little bit into the implications of of their findings that they had throughout their research. Awesome. Without further ado, let's get into the air. So when we often talk about hurricanes, we often talk about the destruction in its wake on land. However, we should also focus on the powerful impacts hurricanes have on the oceans as it passes through as well. Research by our next two guests here show that hurricanes ultimately help warm the ocean, giving future storms more warm water fuel to work with. And we are very happy to have on Sally Warner, who's an associate professor of climate science at Brandeis University in Waltham, Massachusetts, and on the other coast in San Diego, we have Noel Gutiérrez as well, who is a recent Ph.D. graduate. They both worked on this research project. What we found in the Conversation website, you can check out the piece that they have there. It's titled Hurricanes Push Heat Deeper Into the Ocean Than Scientists Realize, Boosting Long Term Warming. New research shows. So Sally Noel, thanks for hopping on today. We appreciate it. Thanks for having us. Thanks for inviting us, Joe. Yeah, totally. Glad to have everybody here and on both coasts. We've got everything covered for you. My first question is going to be a 30,000 foot question here. You know, for the everyday person and let's say it's someone who doesn't live near the coast, What would you say is the main takeaway from this research? I would say, you know, we typically look at hurricanes as extreme events that just last a couple of days and events that result from that, from everything else that is going in the climate. But I think our research contributes to this different perspective of hurricanes being active shapers of the world, don't we? Meaning their effects don't start in when the hurricanes up in the air, but rather they are a crucial element shaping the seasons and ocean currents and everything else that really makes this world the way it is. Gotcha. How are you able, Mike? As I'm reading this article, my one thing I'm wondering is how were you able to research, you know, what happened actually deep down in the oceans and not just what happens at the surface. You know, we often, you know, kind of common knowledge that, you know, we don't know a lot about the ocean still yet, let alone the deep ocean. So how did you get involved in researching what's happening deep down there? So Noel and I were on a research cruise back in 2018. We were on a research vessel, Thomas G. Thompson, which is operated by the University of Washington. And we were kind of close to the Philippines when we did between the Philippines and Palau in the in the Western Pacific when we did this research and we used this instrument called a microstructure profiler. And what it does is we drop it down and it goes it falls down through the ocean and we are able to measure the top 300 meters, which is almost the top thousand feet of the ocean with this instrument. And this instrument measures things like temperature and salinity. Those are kind of basic oceanographic measurements, but it also measures turbulence and it measures like shear in the ocean or very small little motions in the ocean. And so we're able to understand what's happening below the surface by using this instrument and we drop it down and then we pull it off and we drop it down and we pull it off and we drop it down and we pull it up over and over and over. So we did thousands upon thousands of cars while on this three research cruise back in 2018. You research cruises, have all you can eat buffets and waterparks of that. Definitely no water parks, that's for sure. And you know, the food the food can be pretty good and it is all you can eat, but it is limited to meals at certain times. And and when we're on ships, we're working 12 hour watches or 12 hour shifts. Our crew usually does three, 3 to 3. So some people work 3 a.m. to 3 p.m. and other people were at 3 p.m. to 3 a.m.. So you're going to miss some of the meals, but there's always a fridge with leftovers and there's some cereal. Perfect. Yeah. Yeah. And I think one special thing about our measurements is that we were actually running this Chameleon Microstructure device that Sally was describing. We were running that operation 24 seven and so that's, that's an important piece of the measurements, which we are also, I should say that the research Christmas funded by the Office of Naval Research from the US Navy and this was a huge project designed to better understand intra seasonal weather, specific things like that. Well, like the summertime. M.J. Oh, the managing situation. And there was a lot of different labs involved. This particular part of the project that we were involved in was allowed by the Oregon State Ocean Mixing Group and UC San Diego Multiscale Ocean Dynamics and a dive into the details a little bit more. When I first read the article, it kind of stood out as a surprise to me because as meteorologist, one thing that we often talk about is how these storms actually cool the oceans. And so if you have a storm coming in right behind one storm, usually that storm weakens because the sea surface temperatures actually go down. And usually that takes out some of the intensity of the storm right behind a leaping storm. So it was interesting to me that actually we're talking about a warming scenario. So can you clarify what the difference is between the immediate cooling behind these and the long term feeding kind of dive into the details here? So, yeah, that's counterintuitive. You're right, Matt. And yeah, most of us know that at least meteorologists are told like, you know, the ocean has a layer of warm water lying on top of cold water. And when a hurricane comes by, it makes sense. So both of those layers of water, so the surface ends up being colder than usual. And that's true. The part of the story that most meteorologists care about is how about colder than weakens later storms, as you mentioned, But few people realize and Kerry Emanuel made a really good point about this back in 2001. And research sort of continues that the hypotheses that he laid out is when you mix when you mix, there's two masses of water, one cold, one hot for every volume of cold water or anomalously cold water. You're going to have hot water, right? So like by mixing the hot water is cool, but at the heart, the cold water is a warmed. So below the cold wake of the cyclone that you see in the surface from a satellite below that there's going to be a of deep water that received water from the surface. And so we're really working at different time scales here and rather than caring about what what the air sea interactions are going to be in the next, say, 3 to 10 days, we're thinking, okay, what's going to happen to this extra heat in a timescale of months to years? That kind of leads in. Then to my next question that I have for you guys. And it's kind of a broad question, but what have you found are really kind of the implications of your studies here? So the big implication is that by mixing this water, the hurricane comes, it mixes the water, it pushes heat into the thermocline. We like to say 100, 150 meters depth by putting that water there or that heat there, that extra heat becomes available to be transferred by large scale ocean currents. So by it means that the hurricanes are supplying heat to these currents and therefore having remote impacts on climate because those currents will take the warm water and that will allow the heat to impact weather and other parts of the world. So the the field experiment was in the Western Pacific. Do you feel comfortable extrapolating these results to the Atlantic basin, even though that's not where, you know, the warmest water on the planet is and and Indian Ocean basins? Do you kind of feel like this idea holds as you as you change ocean basins, as you go a little bit farther away from the tropics toward the middle latitudes? Is there anything that that cautions you to to extrapolate these results further? Yeah, I think that our results are fundamental in the way that in the sense that we can really expect this to be happening in every ocean, everywhere where there's a hurricane passing over warm water. And the reason that is the case is because I'm so what we observed is that there's four weeks after the hurricane, there's an active transfer of heat between the seasonal and permanent thermocline. So things like water or heat being taken away from water at under 250 meters depth and it's being pushed down all the way to like 200 meters. Wherever you have that structure of water that's going to be happening. And that is due to the to the effect of these things called near inertial waves, which you can think of them as the sort of ocean's reverberation to the forcing of a cyclone. So all the energy that gets put into the water during the journey of the hurricane, that's going to go somewhere. And where it goes into it organizes into these waves and the waves continue of the active heat transfer for weeks. So yeah, it can be generalized to pretty much every place that's going to follow up in there. Because you were saying waves before, I think you mean that figuratively, not literally, right, Because you just go into it a little bit more in depth, maybe to break it down. So we actually do mean literally. So when you typically think of waves in the ocean, people think of surface waves. So waves that are at the surface of the ocean and in a physical sense, they're at the boundary between the water, air interface and water and air have different densities. And actually waves can form pretty much on any boundary between fluids of different densities. So even though the waves that we see on the surface are the most obvious, because we can see that we actually see waves deep in the ocean as well between warmer water. But so you have a layer of warm water on top and a layer of colder water below that interface Between the warm and cold water. There's a density difference between those two layers and waves can form on those layers. Yeah. So we have internal waves and they can transport heat downwards. And so yeah, so when we say near inertial internal waves, these are actually physical things that are happening below the surface in the ocean. Got it. Awesome. All right. Well, thanks for the explanation, Sally. Appreciate it. We're going to take a brief break and we'll come back on the other side. You're listening to the Across the Sky File. And we are back here. We are talking about research done by our two guests here, Sally Boyer and Noel Gutierrez as well about ocean warming, not at the surface, but below the surface due to hurricanes in their field work and experiments in the piece that we read in the conversation drove us to having them here today. And we appreciate that when we talk about, you know, ocean waters and temperatures, the high, no pun intended topic has been how warm it's been and especially Atlantic Ocean, near record to record warm temperatures. We haven't had much in the way of, you know, hurricane development so far this season. My question for you is, you know, can we relate any of this to climate change we've seen over the past couple of decades or any projections with this as we go forward, you know, relating your research to hurricanes and, you know, just generally water temperatures that we've seen in the Atlantic Ocean, I'll start just by saying that the warming, the ocean is certainly a very worrisome topic with respect to climate change. Like the oceans have absorbed over 90% of the excess heat that we put into the atmosphere. And right now we're seeing like massive coral bleaching events happening in places like the Florida Keys and with the El Nino that's happening right now, we expect that coral bleaching to get a lot worse. So just in general, thinking about heat in the ocean, it's a topic that really worries me and it's only going to get worse with climate change. So I just wanted to make that comment about heat in the ocean. But no. Well, if you want to talk more about the wider implications of our research for for climate change. Yeah. So I think where our research comes into the picture here is in really explaining how exactly the ocean has been able to absorb that 90 plus percent of extra heat due to global warming. Right. Temperature of the ocean is one of those things that many scientists we sort of take for granted because it will go into the ocean and we'll take our temperature sensors and we'll see, okay, this is the temperature structure, but we got to realize the heat needs to get there somehow. If we see heat at a thousand meters by 500 meters, whatever it is, to get there somehow and the input of heat for the ocean is the sun. So what our research really does and the big like very big picture of understanding the ocean is giving us one important mechanism by which the heat is transported from the surface where the sun puts it, and then it's transferred to to great depths. And I think it's great that you are really diving into how the temperatures are transferred from the surface to those depths and how they influence hurricanes. Well, that's kind of what I want to go at next, because oftentimes I think that's what a lot of the buzz has been this summer is focusing on sea surface temperatures and how at the surface, all these temperatures are very much above average. And how I think the public now has an understanding and that's been well published, that when you have higher sea surface temperatures, it gives these storms more energy, allows them to become more intense. But how much research has been done with how those waters at that affect the intensity of the storm? So how much is it really just about what's at the surface versus what's happening deeper down that affects the intensity of these storms? We know so much about the temperature of the surface of the ocean because we can measure that with satellites, but satellites only measure the surface. They don't measure what's below. And when we think about hurricane strength, you can imagine if there's like a very thin layer of warm water on top of colder water below, then as the hurricanes come through and mix up that cold water like you were talking about before, that cold water would serve as a dampening effect on the storm because there's less heat to energize the storm. Whereas if you have another scenario where you have a very thick, warm layer on top of the cold layer below, then there's a lot more energy and even as the storm mixes the water, there isn't as much cold that's able to come up. There's still a lot more heat energy to that storm. So the depth of like it really does depend how deep the warm layer is, because that's the energy that's provided to the storms. And the way that we understand deeper temperatures. I think the Argo program. So there's these floats called Argo floats like they're the size of like a like maybe three fire extinguisher features. Like if you were to put them end to end, that's about the size of the floats. And there's over 3000 of them in the oceans and they measure temperature and salinity in the top 2000 meters of the ocean and and the data as freely available. They cover pretty much the entire ocean except the Arctic. And so they may send their their data to satellites. And so that's a way that we can understand what's happening below the surface where satellites can't see, maybe since like the mid 2000 agencies, like no other weather services, they've been aware of this problem that really to understand hurricane development, you get somewhat clear picture of what's under the surface. So Argo and other tools are being integrated into weather prediction models. However, they're like there's still some really big questions, especially in the turbulence part of how the layers of water with different temperature mix because that's really, really difficult to measure. And yeah, that's the fact that we were able to measure that consistently for so long was really well for us to get these new results. And I think that's one of the big frontiers in terms of improving our hurricane prediction models, like really getting that mixing part a little better, especially when there are variations in salinity involved because that's where things are really tricky and that's a hot topic among forecasters right now. Yeah, back to that point about the turbulence, I know that in meteorology turbulence is also just as thorny of an issue, but I just I want to try to get a sense of scale vertically, you know, to the depth of ocean. When we talk about the turbulent mixing of a tropical cyclone, Hurricane, is there a sense as to how deep are we mixing from the lateral surface surface to to how deep are we typically mixing water to depth when when a let's say a cat four, cat five hurricane goes by, obviously stronger hurricanes are going to mix, mix ocean more deeply. But so many times we hear the term sea surface temperature one, How deep is that? How deep is the surface? When we talk about sea surface temperatures of five meters, ten meters, 50 meters, and then approximately how deep to a first approximation do do these storms mix water down in the short term? Not so much in the in the multi-month term, but as these things kind of go by to answer that the best that you can. Yeah, So that's a great question. One of the hurricane is over the ocean. It's generally mixing water in the top 100 meters so that the warm layer that Sally was thinking about, that's where most of the the most of the mixing is happening at the bottom of that warm layer. So say of the surface ocean is 29 Celsius wherever you have water of that temperature and it starts to get colder. That's where most of the mixing. So, you know, that's generally 50 to 100 meters depth. And that's so that's the range of depth when the storm is literally over the ocean. And then what we discover with these measurements is in the following weeks, the energy into the ocean by the storm starts to move deeper and deeper through these internal waves. So the layer maximum mixing groups from 50, 60 meters and it starts going down and we saw it going to 250 meters. We really as far as our measurements went, there was mixing happening. So we we sort of have a low bound, deep this coast and it it might continue for much deeper. So my question is kind of where do you guys plan to go from here? You know, you got some really good information from your studies, from your research that you did. Obviously, you're conveying that, you know, to the public. But what's what's your next step? What do you plan to do sort of the long term question that I'm going after at this point and that this research ties into is and to really understanding the role of and the background climate. Right. So we we usually face this question of what is signal and what is noise and historically, climate scientists have considered weather to be noise. But the way we are looking at it right now, at least from my perspective, is that weather is noise that feeds into the signal. And there's a lot of different ways in which that happens. We made this case study with tropical cyclones and now I'm looking to expand that into broader weather pattern also in the mid-latitudes and developing tools that will help forecasters and other prominent modelers to put these processes into their into consideration and whatever studies they're doing, because, you know, turbulence of these near inertial waves, they have relatively small scales in the ocean. So these are scales smaller than most models are able to resolve correctly. So we need to come up with simplified ways to have these problems processes into account. So that's, I think, where the where the next goal is, really seeing what other type of weather systems have this type of effect and finding simple ways to to account for them in models and predictions. So this isn't anything you can stop. I mean, you can't stop a hurricane from forming, so you can't stop this mixing from occurring, correct? It just it just is. And you hit on a really interesting point because we usually look at hurricanes as this poster child of climate change. Right. Like even Al Gore and An Inconvenient Truth, he dedicates like a good section of his speech to talk about hurricanes of their destruction. And while it is true that hurricanes are, you know, devastating in many cases, they at the end of the day, are intrinsic part of our climate and the mixing that they drive and the warming people cause is also just a fundamental part of how climate works. So and yeah, it's a it's always been here before humans were even on the planet this morning. And I think we also have to remember that actually one of the things that we're kind of concerned about in terms of like mixing in the ocean is actually a good thing. And one of the things we're concerned about is actually a slowing down of mixing with climate change, that as the surface water warms and becomes warmer from heat from the atmosphere, heat from the sun, we are warming the surface faster than we're warming water below. And that's actually making it harder to mix the surface water down or the deeper water up. And this has other implications in the ocean that we need that mixing. We need to be able to mix nutrients upwards into the surface water where microscopic phytoplankton, which are that's a fancy word for algae. They photosynthesize as and provide over half the oxygen in the Earth's atmosphere, but they need nutrients in order to grow, and that has to be mixed up from below. There's this is where we need to mix the oxygenated surface waters down deep. So mixing is a really important process in the ocean. And with climate change mixing, there has been evidence to show that mixing is slowing down in some places, and so there isn't anything we can do about it besides stopping climate change. And that needs to happen for many, many other reasons, in addition to just the ocean. So I think it's safe to say that we need hurricanes for this mixing to occur and to try and even out the temperatures. We just don't want these hurricanes to make landfall and hit people. But hurricanes really are a necessary part of the climate. So we need them. We just if only we could control where they go. Exactly. So they don't hurt anyone. Yes, I think that is very true. It would be great. It'd stop them from hitting coastlines. Yeah. If we could just get them to disintegrate and just give us a bit of rainfall. Just and mostly we're doing the Oh, I think we're stuck with their destructive effects for, for some time at least. I just want to end with this because I kind of touched upon it. But we've talked about hurricanes, right? Most of the conversation. But I'm wondering about nor'easters. Could we see something similar with that? Yeah, I know it's a warm core storm as opposed to a cold core storm. But is there anything to point towards those really strong nor'easter is having an impact? One thing that's different about nor'easters is they're happening at a different time of year. So when hurricanes happening, they're happening over warm water. They're fueled by warm sea surface temperatures in the ocean, whereas nor'easters there happening in the fall and in the winter when the sea surface temperature is much colder. So there isn't that heat at the surface that's getting mixed downwards in the same way that we were showing for our study about hurricanes. And nor'easters are also happening at higher latitudes. So that just, you know, it's not only the seasonality, but the latitude that, as Sally mentions there, makes it such that there's less heat to move around. However, nor'easters do put a tremendous amount of energy into the ocean that ends up contributing to the mixing of some of those nutrients and oxygen and etc.. So where in in our particular case, we're looking at mixing through the lens of hurricanes and through the lens of the heat transfer. But you can look at mixing through the lens of any other weather system and any other chemical or thermodynamic property of the ocean. And there's there's going to be other interesting stories there as well. Got it. Awesome. Well, Noel and Sally, thanks so much for the time here. We really appreciate both of you hopping on the podcast. Yeah, we'll look forward to more of your work. And if anyone here listening wants to see their work, you can go to the conversation, You can type in your names and you can see their article again about what we just chatted about today. Sally Noel, thanks so much for hopping on. Thanks a lot. Thanks so much for having us. Big thanks again to Sally and Noel for hopping on and chatting with us here today. What were you guys as takeaways from this episode and what they had to say about warming and deeper oceans from hurricane? You know, for lack of a better term, it just kind of sounds like a continuous cyclone, right? I mean, you've got these two hurricanes that come through. They warm the ocean waters down below and and it's something that really can't be stopped. And I think that's what that's something they touched on. And that's something to remember, too, is that they've always been here. Hurricanes have always been a part of our history and that they're important for our ecosystems as well. You know, to, as she mentioned, to bring oxygen to two parts of the ocean that need them and bring some of that cooler water up to to the surface, it kind of reminds me of wildfires. Yeah, you're right. With wildfires, this has always been a part of the Earth's system. Hurricanes have always been part of the Earth's system. Right. Long before we were actually here. So on some level, they're big heat engines that that do move heat away from the tropics to the higher latitudes, the mid-latitudes. So they're not going away, nor should they go away. But, you know, we would prefer they stay off of the coastlines whenever possible. Yeah, it really was the the end of the conversation. You said to me about how central these things are and the importance that they serve. They are they are a huge part of transporting the heat from the equator to higher latitudes. So we need these storms. And yes, so much of the focus is that these things are all bad. And when the storm stays out the ocean, it's it's not a bad thing, you know, and it's easy for boats to go around these storms, especially now that we have satellite technology, it's pretty easy for ships to avoid these storms, unlike in the past. It's just when they make landfall and the majority of storms do fortunately stay out of water. But it's the ones that hit land that are the problem. So I look forward to the day when we have the power to control the weather many years in the future and we can steer these things away from land and out in the open water. And then, I don't know, I guess we might be unemployed as we just we wouldn't have to work as I guess we would all be involved in some way and controlling the weather and trying to make everything even across the planet. I, I don't think I'll have to worry about that in my lifetime. But maybe one day we can just keep podcast and that just keep talking and devote more time to podcasts. We can make it a daily show at that. All right. We are going to wrap it up for this episode. Thanks again to Sally Noel for hopping. I hope all of you enjoyed it. And if you have a question, comment, maybe even a wisecrack for us, you can send us a message via email. Send us an email to podcast at Lee Dot Net. We have gotten a couple of emails recently. We have answered them in the past and we'll be more than happy to answer them in the future as well as podcasts at the back. For Matt Holiner, Sean Sublette and Kirsten Lang, I'm meteorologist Joe Martucci, we'll see you next Monday on the Across the Sky podcast.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Hurricane Idalia became the eighth major hurricane to make landfall on the Gulf Coast in the last six years, leaving behind a trail of destruction in its path. On this week's episode, the Lee Weather Team looks back on the storm to discuss what stood out to them the most. How good was the forecast? Was the forecast communicated effectively? Why did some people choose not to evacuate? What can we learn from this storm before the next hurricane strikes the United States? Get the meteorologists' perspective in our in-depth review of Hurricane Idalia. We want to hear from you! Have a question for the meteorologists? Call 609-272-7099 and leave a message. You might hear your question and get an answer on a future episode! You can also email questions or comments to podcasts@lee.net. About the Across the Sky podcast The weekly weather podcast is hosted on a rotation by the Lee Weather team: Matt Holiner of Lee Enterprises' Midwest group in Chicago, Kirsten Lang of the Tulsa World in Oklahoma, Joe Martucci of the Press of Atlantic City, N.J., and Sean Sublette of the Richmond Times-Dispatch in Virginia. Episode transcript Note: The following transcript was created by Adobe Premiere and may contain misspellings and other inaccuracies as it was generated automatically:   Hello, everyone, and welcome to another episode of Across the Sky, our National Lee Enterprises Weather podcast. I'm Matt Holiner in Chicago. One quarter of the lead weather team, but the whole game here today, meteorologist Joe Martucci based in Atlantic City. Sean Sublette in Richmond, Virginia and Kirsten Lang in Tulsa, Oklahoma. Together the four of us cover weather across the country. Yes, not just across the sky, but across the country. And this national weather coverage is new. So if you're listening to this podcast on a Lee Enterprise's website or app, you're probably going to be seeing more forecast videos from us, especially when bad weather is expected. But I think it's safe to say this podcast, this is the first thing that went national and I think it's the favorite part of our jobs. And nothing is changing here. In fact, each week we continue to see our number of listeners go up. So really, we can't thank you enough for tuning in and subscribing and this week, just like the national weather story for the last week. This episode is all about Hurricane Idalia. The damage is still being assessed, but it is clear that this was another devastating storm for parts of the southeast. And of course, right off the bat, our thoughts and prayers are with all the people trying to recover from this storm. Now, obviously, lots to discuss here. But to start, guys, let's just go around the horn and talk about the first thing that stood out to you about Dahlia. Sean, let's start with you, because you were doing a lot of updates on this storm for our Carolina properties. Yeah, I think for me, one of the things that I take home from Idalia is actually how well it was forecast. You know, we are we are in an environment you know, we've been talking about this for a few months now. We've got very high ocean heat content, high sea surface temperatures, basically warm water. But we've had the El Nino going on and there's this whole battle back and forth between the two. Which one of these impacts is going to be larger? And we kind of said, well, once things get started, they can really, really go. And that's kind of what happened. I mean, the Gulf of Mexico was especially warm, and it is not common for the National Hurricane Center to to talk about rapid intensification in their discussions and their technical discussions as this environment is primed for rapid intensification. And and by that, we mean something very specific, effectively going up two categories in 24 hours. I mean, technically, it's 35 miles per hour and 24 hours, but two categories, right? So for them to be talking about rapid intensification, which such high confidence, then it comes to fruition pretty much as forecast. I mean, their track was spot on. But, you know, it's tough. You know, you're looking at just this blob of clouds in the Yucatan Channel and you're thinking 36 hours. This is going to be a major hurricane. That is not a forecast you can make 15 or 20 years ago with any kind of confidence. So for me, I'm especially happy with how far we have come in intensity forecasting in the last five or ten years. You're on the coast, You know, I know this is not your storm, obviously, but what kind of things were you thinking about? I was thinking about this is another instance where the surge was the bit was the biggest deal with this. And kind of I've been thinking about this for the past month, like the sapphire system scale. Is that the best way of categorizing hurricanes? I'm not trying to like open a can of worms on the podcast, but you know, you got something that and I just read a tweet by Greg Purcell from the Weather Channel about how there really was nothing more than tropical storm force sustained winds on any land, on land observing site with this storm. Even though it was a hurricane. So, you know, if that were to be true, well, it wasn't a Category three at landfall by technicality, because it would you would have to have something that was over 74 miles an hour sustained winds. But the impacts of the storm are, you know, like a Category three. I guess what I'm trying to say is, you know, is there is there a better way to categorize hurricanes that take into account the surge, you know, the flooding, the pressure maybe or even the, you know, taking went into account to because it's all comes back know, again, just being at the Jersey Shore comes back to Superstorm Sandy, which was a category one, you know, at landfall. But, you know the damage did not feel like a category one at the Jersey Shore. So it's just more of a broader picture for me. You know, with this, you know, can we get to a place, you know, is a safer symptom scale the best way to do this weather bell, which is known for their weather models, has put out a criteria by proprietary criteria to model these kind of storms with categories. I think the snapper system is great in the sense that we've been using it for such a long time that it makes it easy to compare storm the storm, But sometimes when you got your storm surge, it's like a category five, but your winds are like a category one. What you know, you're going to see category one, but wasn't really a category one. That's my thought. And Sean, going off your point about the the forecast accuracy, I mean, this time in particular, the track forecast was pretty incredible. I looked back and the first forecasts that the National Hurricane Center issued, now, the intensity was off there only at the time of forecasting, I think it was a category one hurricane at landfall. And that was the one thing that did change in this forecast was the intensity. And it looked like, oh, wait a minute, this is going to be stronger and stronger and stronger. So intensely. Forecasts getting better, but has room for improved. But there was very little improvement for the track forecast because actually the national Hurricane Center's first forecast five days out was only ten miles off. And where landfall actually happened, landfall happened at Keeton Beach. And the first forecast was picked to make landfall just ten miles west of Keaton Beach. And that is remarkable how good that track forecast was five days out. And there wasn't a whole lot of shifting. One thing, if you're comparing Italia to Ian, we did see that shift in the track forecast from north to south. With time. This forecast didn't really shift that much. Again, the cone was wider five days out and it got narrow, narrower, but it didn't shift much. You know, if you look at all the different forecasts, it kind of bounced back and forth a little bit west to east. But there was no dramatic shift. Like the focus was always on the big bend for the worse impacts, and that's where the worst impacts was. And the track forecasts just continue to get better and better. The intensity forecast is lagging behind some, but that's getting better as well. But there's definitely a difference between the track forecasts and the intensity forecast. And I think when it comes to intensity forecasts, I mean, we just keep seeing this happening over and over again where the models tend to under do how quickly these things can intensify when all other conditions are right, when you don't have any wind shear, when there's no dry air, when those waters, as they are in the Gulf, just keep getting warmer. Warmer and you have above average sea surface temperatures, which they always are. Now, every year we're talking about above average sea surface temperatures in the Gulf. When the conditions are ripe for intensifying, the models continue to reduce under do it. And so a lot of these models were peaking at category three, but it ended up reaching Category four. Now ultimately making landfall because it went through an eyewall replacement cycle right before landfall as a Category three to reach Category four, which is higher than what the models were indicating. So I think, you know, from a forecasting perspective, since we're still useful as meteorologists, the models are just a tool. I think being more aggressive in the intensity forecast going a little bit higher than what the models are saying is probably the best track when you know that the wind shear is going away, there's no dry air, the water is really warm. Go ahead and be a little bit more aggressive in that intensity forecast. Maybe think about you know, if the models are saying 110 mile per hour winds, go ahead and forecast 120 mile per hour winds because this keeps happening, these intensification events and these storms overachieving. So I think that's a good strategy moving forward for intensity forecast. So speaking of intensity, I'll kind of Segway next to I think the stat that stood out to me was that there have been 11 named storms that have been retired. And a lot of that has to do with the time of year that they usually happen, right? I mean, when you start going down through the alphabet, usually get to an eye around peak season. But it's since 2001, there's been 11 of them. And so in Ian, of course, was the last one last season Of course this won't they will come out with whether or not this one is retired until the end of the season but I'm sure that it'll probably be put on that list as well, given the intensity of it, but I don't have thoughts on that. Yeah, there's something about the ice storms. You got to watch out for these ice storms. It is getting a little bit ridiculous. Like how many times the ice storms have been bad. I mean, you got Ida and Irene and Ian and how many. We have retired and let's be honest, there's just not a lot of names. We have to come up with a new name every time we retire. Name? Like what name are we going to come up with next? I think like we're scraping the bottom of the barrel here. It's like, Well, I mean, fortunately it's an international name with the World Meteorological Organization comes out these nameless. And so it's not just English names. I believe it's English, Spanish, French. Are those are the three. Those are the big three. There's my understanding is that, you know, the WMO World Meteorological Organization kind of does this. You know, those are the three languages that are spoken the most in this part of the world, English, Spanish and French, especially for for the folks in Haiti and Martinique in the in the Lesser Antilles. So that's why those names are dominant. But you're right, man. It's going to run out of names. You are along the coast and you start creeping up and it's like getting up there in the alphabet and you've got an eye coming at you. I feel like the chances of you having a stronger storm freaked me out. But, you know, that's just that's just being nervous about it, I guess. Better watch out for the next ice storm now. Well, and I think, you know, if you're wondering, like, why ice storms, I think it's just because of the placement. You know, we tend to get our strongest storms this time of year, late August through September into early October. That's tend to be when the major hurricanes occur. And so we usually get some small storms that aren't much of an issue. Of course, there are certainly been exceptions. Andrew certainly stands out as a major hurricane. That was the first storm of the season. But it just seems like oftentimes we get a lot of little baby storms. If you want to call them that. Storms that are out in middle Atlantic don't hurt anyone. And so we it just so happens that we often hit the ice storm when hurricane season is peaking. And so, sure enough, these ice storms tend to be stronger ones, that the stronger storms tend to occur near the peak of the hurricane season. So I just think it's EIS placement on the list. We just work through the names one by one and it just so happens that we tend to get our strongest storms and we hit the name. And looking ahead to 2024, if you're wondering what the name is in 2020 for this year it was a female name. So next year it's going to be a male name. It is Isaac. Isaac It was a storm as a C Isaac in 2024. And then we've got again, there are actually six nameless that we do so again in 2025. It's Imelda 2026. It's it's a year which I remember that one being that one has come up before it was not retired. So it's still on the list. Then in 2027 it's Imani, and then in 2028, that's as far out as we go. It's Idris. And so then theoretically it's Aliya would come up again in 2029 unless it's retired. And I think there's a pretty good chance that it's going to be retired, not as devastating a storm as in overall the economic impact, the number of lives lost. Fortunately, it looks like it going to be lower. But still, I mean, the images coming out just still overwhelming. You can just see like, you know, there's again, average we see after every major hurricane landfall. But the images of devastation that come out, it's really, really saddening. You know, it was pretty interesting. I was watching the Weather Channel on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Jim CHANATRY, the legend at the University of Florida Research Station in Cedar Key. And you just saw the water just moving ashore. And I'm looking at it and I'm like, yeah, Moore is moving to shore and it's bad. But then like, kind of like, put yourself like you have a house there and you're seeing like, imagine your street. Like even if you don't live at the coast, imagine your street. You got three feet of water just moving down the street. It's not going away, Right. Like, that's pretty terrifying to see, really. You know, it's such a hard this comes back to like something I think we've talked about in the past, like it's so hard to conceptualize something you haven't seen before. Yeah. And if you're in Cedar Key and that's an area that hasn't had a direct hit from a hurricane, I don't think ever in recorded history. Going back to the 1800s. Yeah, it's tough to put yourself in that spot, but to see like three feet of water or four feet of water or whatever it was is is towering. I had a friend of mine who lives in Saint Petersburg, and he had he says he's lived there since 2017. He says the worst flooding he saw on his street in Saint Petersburg. And one of his neighbors said they lived there for like 23 years and that was the worst they had. And they had the whole street was covered and it was about anywhere between 6 to 18 inches, which isn't you know, six inches isn't going to get to your house, but 18 inches good. So that's another takeaway from this storm. Also a question for you guys. Have you guys ever read the book Isaac's Storm, speaking of Isaac? Yes, I have. And it's a fantastic book. If you are a meteorologist or anybody who's interested in whether that is a must read, a must read, a young Joe read that book back. Back in the year 2000, it was about the 1900 Galveston hurricane. It was a nonfiction book by Erik Larson. So good read. It just shows you, you know, if you have any doubts about, oh, those meteorologists there, they're always wrong. It's like when you read that book, you realize how far we've come and the fact that, you know, the death toll looks like it's going be as low as it is from this storm tells you how far we have come, because in that Galveston storm, over 8000 people died when a Category four made landfall and this time almost a Category four made landfall. You know, granted not right over a highly populated area. That obviously helps. But the fact that death toll may end up being less than a dozen people, It tells you that we so far in being able to forecast these things because that's what happened in Galveston. They basically had no idea it was they were about to get slammed by a Category four hurricane. There were a few reports like there's a storm in the Gulf that was it was like ship reports and they didn't know exactly where it was going. So the fact that we can track these things with satellites, keep an eye on we have planes flying out and getting the latest conditions, the the computer models that we have now gotten so good at forecasting where these things are go. The science in meteorology has advanced so much so that hopefully we will never see a death toll like that from a hurricane again. You know, I, I think it will be tough to do because we've gotten you know, there's always room for improvement. The forecast can definitely get better. The communication get better. I think we've reached a point where we can communicate it well enough that we can get the vast majority of people to a safe place and avoid the worst of the storm. So on that note, I'll take a short break, but don't go anywhere. And we're going to continue talking about this storm and look ahead to the future. What can we learn from Dallas or better prepared for the next hurricane? We'll talk about that right after this break. And welcome back to Across the Sky. Continuing our discussion and recap of Hurricane Italia, I really want to dive into the community ocean now and how can we better communicate? We always come back to that. We talk about how the forecasts keep getting better and better, especially the track forecasting. The intensity forecasts are showing improvement to, but it's useless if we can't properly communicate and talk about how people outside the cone are going to feel impacts as well. And what are those conditions going to be like, where the worst occurs and so on. You're watching the Weather Channel and something stood out to you. Yeah. So, you know, I've got on another screen, I've got the Weather Channel on and I've been watching Cantera do this thing ever since I was an undergrad back in the and the day when I said in, in the 19 something something and look I can talk. He is great. I love his passion. I love what he brings. He is very real and and I love the way he covers stuff. And he's he's obviously been around the block more than once, but he was talking to a guy who owned a condo there at Cedar Key and and wondering why he didn't evacuate. And and he made the comment. CANTOR He made the comment right there on on camera that we need to do a better job of communicating what the risk is. This guy didn't leave even though the forecast storm surge was on the order of 10 to 14 feet. And I think it came up to about seven or eight feet. So the guy was his condo was elevated. So obviously the water rushed underneath of the condo and he was okay because the thing made landfall at low tide. If it had come in at high tide, well, now we have a much different issue. Right. And that dude might not have made it. So how can we do a better job of communicating that risk to encourage these homeowners to leave? I mean, and to look to his credit, Cantor, he didn't say a bad thing about this guy because this guy, it was fine, right? He was fine. And he did what he thought was right. But he was only two or three feet of water away from probably not still being with us. So I think we've done a very good job at timing and intensity of the storm. But now I guess the next frontier of this is, yes, communication. But then what we in the business called the mesoscale impacts. Right. How how high what time is that? How far inland is that surge going to go? How how good can we make that part of the forecast? It's it's admittedly not not awfully difficult to say, okay, in the big bend area, there's going to be a 10 to 14 storm surge. I think any one of us can do that without a lot of fuss. But then it takes more time to say, okay, this point on the big bend at this time, we'll have six or eight or ten feet of storm surge because the tide level is going to be this at this time, because a full moon and all of that other stuff. That's another whole thing to do. Right. Of course, that's also and I'm going to give credit here to the local weather service officers. That's what they do. Right. And they do that especially well. So, you know, we could sit back, the hurricane center can sit back and give those larger scale things. But man, we a lot of what needs to be done is communication and understanding of what these smaller scale impacts are going to me, you know, where precisely is the eyewall going that's going to bring that 100 mile an hour gust because of all of y'all have done this. You've talked about hurricanes with the public and the people say, well, I've been through a hurricane and they might have, but they didn't go through the eyewall. So they don't think it's that bad. You know, obviously, we all know that area around the eye, the eyewall is where it's the worst. And if you go through that, you're not going to forget it. Those kinds of things. What Cantore was talking about earlier today there on the big bend of Florida is what kind of sticks with me going forward. Yes, Sean, I saw that interview as well. And the one thing that stood out to me, one of the reasons the guy said that he decided to stay is that initially Cedar Key was in the cone, but ultimately Cedar Key was removed from the cone. And so once he wasn't in the cone anymore, he had that sense of, oh, it's going to be okay. Even though they were still communicated. When you saw the forecast slide, Cedar Key is still going to have huge impacts. There's still going to be the landfall is not going to be a Cedar Key. Okay. There are absolutely impacts. Cedar Key, a tremendous storm surge, tremendous winds. Still not the worst of the wind. No, but still very strong winds and a life threatening storm surge situation in particular. So that was still communicated. But because Cedar Key was not in the cone in his mind, he was safe, even though it wasn't as safe as he really thought. And so I think, again, it comes back to how much focus people put on the cone. And this storm was a great example of how there are impacts well beyond the cone. Look at what happened in Clearwater Beach in Tampa and San Pete. You know, everybody, you know, at first there was the possibility that, yes, maybe it would hit there. But pretty early on they were removed from the cone. It's like, okay, look, Tampa and Clearwater, they get lucky again. But there were impacts. In fact, record storm surge in Clearwater Beach, four feet of storm surge. It actually still flooded homes and they were not in the cone, but they absolutely felt impacts from this storm. I think this was a good wakeup call for the Tampa Saint Pete area because we saw what happened when a storm made landfall 100 miles away. Can you imagine what it had been like if this storm actually made landfall and Tampa and Saint Pete and how much worse it would have been? We just got a preview of this record storm surge for Clearwater Beach. But imagine if that storm had been a lot closer, how bad it would have been. So I think this is a wakeup call for the Tampa Bay area about get ready. This was another close call. One day your luck is going to run out, though, and things are going to be worse. And again, but coming back to the original message, they weren't in the cone, but they absolutely felt impacts. And how do we communicate to people outside the cone what it's going to be like, Don't let your guard down. This is what you need to be prepared for. That still seems to be the big challenge. You know, we've been talking about communication forever, really, and I think Katrina was the maybe the genesis of a concentrated effort for those in the weather community to really hunker down on the messaging, you know, as far as evacuating and people not evacuating. I mean, you know, it has to do with one, you know, you think your home is invincible, you're in it all the time. Nothing usually happens to your house. So that's part of it. It's also the oh, that won't happen to me mentality, too, you know, And a lot of this has been studied by by, you know, psychologists and sociologists over time, you know, and it's hard when, you know, you do evacuate and then not much happens at your place. You're not as likely to evacuate, you know, in the future. I'm assuming the area in the big bend of Florida, I know it's not very populated, but there's probably a good amount of people who live there, you know, seasonally. And, you know, if they are there in August for whatever reason, and they live in, let's say, Kentucky or Pennsylvania or whatever, you know, they don't have to deal with this. So this is a new experience for them, too. I think also some people just like, you know, it's a thrill, right? Your you against man against nature and people just like that. Right. That's that's that's probably how we invented fire in some ways more so you know there is that human element to it but but you know where we have fire now, you know we have fire. We've done all that. You know, we're advanced enough where we can evacuate, you know, when we're told to. But it is a tough choice. It's a personal choice. I mean, it is. It's it is it's tough for for a number of people. I understand that. Yeah. The other thing with me thinking about Katrina, think of the the economic situation in a lot of those areas. Some of those people just couldn't leave and they did not have the means to leave. And that's one of the things that I wasn't even cognizant of, you know, many years ago, is to understand that there's a lot of people who can't they just can't they don't have the means, much less some place to go. And that's another thing that I think a lot of us doing. Weather communications have had to come to terms with. But what stands out to me is that nowadays it used to be an issue is like, do the people know this storm is coming? Were they notified? Did they have any idea? And now most of the people who do stay behind and survive, like this guy in Cedar Key, he knew what was coming. He knew the storm was going. It wasn't like he didn't have any way. He had not read it in the paper. I mean, now there's so many ways you can get the information if you're on the Internet, your local newspaper, TV. I mean, it is hard not to be notified about the storm. So very rarely do you encounter someone who is literally off the grid and has no idea that storm is coming. They know the storm is coming, but they don't have a good idea of exactly what's going to happen. And then we get into the other reasons of why people even another reason that comes up is people. You know, there are shelters that open up for these storms, but they're concerns about what's available in those shelters. What if they have a family member with special medical needs and are they going to have the equipment in case they have a medical emergency at that shelter to be taken care of? And is it a shelter that allows pets or not? Because a lot of people do not. They consider the pet a member of the family and they do not want to leave their pets behind. They want to bring the pets with them. But there's concerns about, well, are they going to accept pets at the shelter? And so then that might be a hesitation. And then finally, it's getting the information. I think that maybe the what needs to happen is like the shelters being very clear about where the shelters are, what we have available, what we are going to allow and not allow. That might help if there's some communication, like maybe, you know, we're getting better at the forecast communication, people being aware of the storm, but maybe giving telling people, well, what should I do? Maybe that's where the breakdown is, like, where can I go? Because some people may not have a family member. They can go to, you know, just a couple of hours away. There's some people it's like, I don't have any family anywhere close or friends anywhere close. I have nowhere to go, so I'm just going to stay. So maybe getting the word out about where people can go to be safe from the storm. Maybe that's what we need to do better off. Yeah, I agree. I think the I think the communication of a storm approaching is obviously not what we're lacking on any of this. I think everybody's well aware of that. I think it's just as you all touched on, I think it's just people thinking they can ride it out and just the unknown. And I hate to say that that, you know, it just it takes having to go through something like that to realize it. That's, you know, maybe next time I'd be a little bit more cautious or thoughtful on on my actions and whether or not I, I evacuate or not. But yeah, it's just something we're probably going to continue to battle, I guess, is meteorologist and then emergency management is going to have to you know, it's something they have to battle as well. And I think also, you know, where there still can be continued improvement is places that are in the cone, but not at the coast. So much focus is what's going to happen at the coast, and rightfully so, because of the storm surge. Right. You have that added threat in addition to the rain, in addition to the wind. I think sometimes we may just get too carried away. It's like where's the worst going to be? Which is always like, where is it going to be on the coast? And we saw big impacts in Georgia and South Carolina and North Carolina as well. And though those were covered and I think they were communicated, there was still not as much focus. A lot of people being and back again. So many more people feel secondary impacts. Not the worst of the storm. They're still building impact from the storm, but not the worst. And sometimes we get so caught up in how bad is it going to be at this one specific spot we forget to like keep remembering, especially in the national conversation. I think, you know, at the local levels, there's a little bit different conversation. You know, the local meteorologist talking about how it's going to impact this local area. But from the national media perspective, I think there's sometimes a little too much focus on where is the worst going to be. I don't think there was enough in the national conversation about what the impacts were going to be in Georgia and South Carolina and the tremendous amount of rain they were going to see of so many places just seeing six, seven, eight. I think the the the the highest total so far, just a little over nine and a half inches of rain and is absolutely going to cause flooded roads. And this where this occurred was an inland area, nowhere near the coast, but there was absolutely flooding, inland flooding away from the coast. So many flooded roads that impacted travel. And the tornado threat. The most incredible video I saw from this storm so far. Oh, yeah, video out of South Carolina of a tornado crossing an interstate, picking up a car and flipping. I mean, just Google, South Carolina, Italia, tornado, and you will come across that video and it is absolutely incredible. It's amazing those people did not die. I mean, the way that car flipped was literally picked up and partially landed on another car. It is amazing. Those people were not even seriously injured. From what I gather. They were injured, but not seriously. And the fact that they even survived is remarkable. So we sometimes forget about the tornado threat with these hurricanes, too. Again, so much focus on the storm surge, on those strong winds with these hurricanes. But don't forget, usually these hurricanes generate tornadoes as well. And no, they're not yet. Four EF five tornadoes still, you have zero. You have one tornadoes, 100 mile per hour winds, especially when it's just a tropical storm. And so the winds are coming down. It's like, oh, the wind threat's going down. You still got to watch out for tornadoes because those can be deadly as well. If you get hit by the F0, if one tornado crossing a highway, those people got extremely lucky. So we can't forget about the tornado threat as well. The tornado, you know, that we did have across the area, you know, we've seen this a couple of times. You know, where, you know, on it's always on the east side, the storm with the tornadoes, you know, that we do see. And then in terms of the impacts, you know, with the you know, you have the surge and you have the tornadoes and you have the flooding and you have the wind, you know, it's a multi impact storm. I know. We'll I know again, go back to Sam, for instance. Yeah. We talk about the winds alone. But in terms of the storm, it's really a multi impact event. And again, it's when you have a tornado, it just adds to the complexity because sometimes, you know, sometimes you get storm surge and a tornado warning at the same time and you need to figure out where the best place to shelter is. And sometimes being low isn't good and sometimes being high isn't good either. You know, if you have balls going on at the same time. So it's a game, like I said, sometimes a multi impact event. Otherwise, that's all I have here for, for the storm. Yeah, I think this is just a great conversation to have, like getting a group of meteorologists together after a storm like this and just having a conversation and bouncing ideas off of each other. You know, what went right, what went wrong, What can we do better? You know, what did we see with how the models performed? Another thing that stood out to me, the good old battle between the European in the GFC is another example. There is this is another example of the European beat out the GFC. Now again, the GFC has gotten better and this is not does not happen every time, but a so many times during these high impact forecasts it gets so much attention. Oftentimes the European keeps beating the GFC that keeps coming up. And I just got to wonder, it's like, why have we made the GFC model better? The European is not a perfect model. It's not right every time. And there there are still examples where the GFC beats the European. That's why we look at all the models. But it, it just continuously comes up in European versus the GFC. And once again the European has a tendency to wind out, it says what can we do to make the GFC better? It is absolutely fair to say that the European model was able to latch on to this signal that there would be something a good 24, almost 48 hours before before the GFC was able to to lock on to that signal and my understanding, I'm not a numerical weather prediction, dude, but my understanding is that, you know, the data assimilation is just simply better. There. First, gas field is just better because they they put more resources into it because the European Center only has to do one kind of market. Whereas here in the states, you know, we have the global forecast system, we run the triple R, there are all these different resolution models for air dispersion and pollution dispersion. So I don't want to be one of these people. I don't want this to devolve into like bashing Noel because that's not fair at all. They have they are much more on their proverbial plates than than the Europeans do. But yeah, you would want to. Your point is exceedingly well taken. We still need to do better in our in our modeling system, especially for these high impact tropical events for sure. Yeah. I mean, that's what we're always striving for in meteorology. We want to be as accurate as possible. I feel like, you know, some people are always the butt of jokes. It's like, Oh, you can just be right 50% time, but we're not. We're much more accurate that and we're always striving to be better. We realize there's room for improvement. We're always trying to improve. And I think it's conversations like that where we get that improvement. What went right, what went wrong, how can we do better? And so that's why we're having the conversation. It was a great conversation. Obviously, this is a story that's not going away any time soon. And with that in mind, we want to reach out to you, our listeners. Were you impacted by Dalia? Do you have friends or family who were impacted? If you have a story about this storm or just a comment or thought, share it with us. Send us an email at podcasts at Lee Dot Net or leave us a voicemail by calling 6092727099. Again, that email is podcasts at Lee dot net and the phone number is 6092727099. We'd love to hear from you. And finally, before we wrap up, you know, looking ahead, a lot of good episodes lined up. We're going to be talking about how weather impacts fantasy football. Phone companies, Bounce houses. Yes, bounce houses. Those things that kids jump in at birthday parties. You would be shocked how many times the wind has blown those things over. So we're going to do a whole episode about that. But next week we're sticking with hurricanes and we've got an interesting topic lined up. Joe, do you want to tell folks more about this one? Yeah, we're talking about how hurricanes, after they pass through an area in the ocean, they actually warmed a deep part of the ocean. It's common knowledge in the weather world that when a hurricane passes through an area, the surface water temperatures cooler. But we never really looked at what happened deep in the oceans. And yes, the warming in the deeper oceans does have an impact on what happens throughout the rest of hurricane season. So We're talking about that with Sally Water from Brandeis University in Massachusetts. And we also have Noel Gutierrez as well from UC San Diego. You guys won't be able to actually you know, we're an audio only podcast, but Noel, I think, had the best, most awesome looking backdrop in Across the Sky podcast history because he's just shown in San Diego. But we will be chatting with them and that will be our episode coming out on Monday September the 11th. Yes, it was a great background and a fascinating conversation, so looking forward to it and I think that's going to do it for this week's episode of Across the Sky. But if you enjoy the show, please like great share subscribe. I know you hear it from everyone producing digital content, but it really does help us out. So thank you for taking the time to do it for LA Enterprise and my fellow meteorologist Joe Martucci in Atlantic City, Sean Sublette in Richmond, Kirsten Lang in Tulsa, I'm Matt Holiner in Chicago. Thanks again for listening, everyone. And we'll talk to you again soon.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

After our episode on the Arizona heatwave, one listener wondered why this year's heat was such a big deal. Hasn't it been this hot before? Her thermometer says so. The problem is, most home thermometers are not very accurate. Official temperature readings are made by carefully calibrated and properly placed weather stations. It's a big undertaking that's more complicated and time consuming than you'd think! Dr. Kevin Kloesel, Director of the Oklahoma Climatological Survey, joined the podcast this week to talk about what it takes to maintain Oklahoma's network of weather stations, the best way to get accurate weather measurements, and why you shouldn't trust that temperature reading in your car. We want to hear from you! Have a question for the meteorologists? Call 609-272-7099 and leave a message. You might hear your question and get an answer on a future episode! You can also email questions or comments to podcasts@lee.net. About the Across the Sky podcast The weekly weather podcast is hosted on a rotation by the Lee Weather team: Matt Holiner of Lee Enterprises' Midwest group in Chicago, Kirsten Lang of the Tulsa World in Oklahoma, Joe Martucci of the Press of Atlantic City, N.J., and Sean Sublette of the Richmond Times-Dispatch in Virginia. Episode transcript Note: The following transcript was created by Adobe Premiere and may contain misspellings and other inaccuracies as it was generated automatically: Welcome back to this week's recording of the Across the Sky podcast, which is put on by Lee Enterprises and the Lee Weather team. Lee Enterprises is a national publication company with over 70 publications nationwide. And our weather team of meteorologist covers it from coast to coast. Each day on the team we have myself Kirsten Lang in Tulsa, Oklahoma, Matt Holiner in the Midwest, Joe Martucci in Atlantic City, and Sean Sublette in Richmond, Virginia. Welcome back, guys. Hope everyone has had a wonderful week. You know, this is our first podcast where we're actually going to dive into a question or a comment in this case from a listener. And I want to note that this was made after we talked about the Arizona heat and how hot it had been for days on end. Deirdre wrote in and she had more of a comment kind of question about this, and she said, hello, I'm a bit confused about the hype about the heat. This summer we visited Arizona in July of 2005, and every day was between 115 and 120 degrees. We were traveling in an RV that had no AC in the cab, so I'm well aware of how hot that is. But locals told us that this is what summer is like in the Arizona desert. And it wasn't just the spike. The high heat continued for well over a month. So why is this year suddenly different? Yeah, so I thought that was a really interesting point. So I wanted to go back and look at the data from July of 2005 and when I did, I saw that her information wasn't very accurate. I mean, it's always hot in July and Phoenix, I mean that that's what Arizona is known for and especially that time of year. But I went back and looked at the high temperatures. They were generally between 105 and 110. Again, not cool by any stretch, but the hottest temperature all of that month was 116 and it only happened once. So I think I think the big deal for for this past July was that every single day was above normal for Phoenix. I mean, every day, no break at all. There were several days when it was, quote unquote, only 101, 100 to 103 in Phoenix, which is a couple of degrees below normal. I think that's that's the key here, is that every single day was hotter than normal and above 110, which is without precedent in Phoenix. I think that really is is what got everybody's attention. And, you know, I to that point, Matt, I know you and I were talking about this also when she says 115 to 120, you know, where she taking that know she said in the cab. I mean and if that's the case, that's another whole thing, right? Yeah. So that's what got us thinking like, well, why did she think it was between 115 and 120 every day? Where does she gain that data from? And so our best guess, we don't know this for sure, is that she was probably looking at even in 2005, a lot of vehicles have thermometers or the RV's have the monitors in the car and they give you a temperature reading the outside temperature reading. People look at that all the time. I get pictures all the time from back home. People saying, look how cold it is or look how hot it is. It a picture of the thermometer on their on their dashboard or on their rearview mirror looking at that temperature. But the problem is, though, though, it's a very easy way to see what the temperature is outside. Those thermometers on cars are not very accurate and has a lot to do with the location where they're place. And you'll also notice how quickly the temperature will change on those thermometers versus being parked versus moving. So they're not a very good representation of what actually was occurring in the real temperatures. And so that's why we got the perfect guy to come on and talk about how to take accurate temperature readings. What's the best way to get accurate data, What is used to feed our computer models that are making these forecasts and how there's so many issues when it comes to accurate temperature readings? And so why not bring on the guy in charge of the Oklahoma maisonette and we get into the details of why it's such a great network and how we can expand it to more locations in the country. So this is a great episode. Yeah. You know, shout out to Deirdre because without her we wouldn't be doing this episode. So yeah, Deirdre, if you're listening, thanks her. Thanks for listening and thanks for, you know, having such an interest in the weather here. You know, we appreciate you giving us the opportunity to talk more about temperature readings and what is accurate, what is in, and how we can go forward with somebody who knows a lot about temperature readings. Because in the weather world, the Oklahoma Basin, that is a very, very big deal. So thanks again to your for the question comment. All right. So on the other side of that break, we are going to have Dr. Kloesel. They'll he'll be on here to talk with us more about this topic. Well, welcome, Dr. Kevin Kloesel. He is the director of the Oklahoma Kind of Survey, which operates the Oklahoma medicine that Weather Observation Network. And he's also the university meteorologist for the Oklahoma University Department of Campus Safety and is responsible for providing weather forecasts and safety information to the campus of O.U. Which is right up the street from me here in Tulsa, Oklahoma. So welcome, Dr. Kloesel. How are you doing today? Doing well. It's good to see everybody. Well, we are excited to have you on. And, you know, we wanted to talk with you about a couple of things. We're actually going to start with a topic that they came across to us from a listener about temperature readings. And what we wanted to do was that, you know, a lot of people may not realize that there's really a strict protocol for measurement on temperature. And we wanted to see if you could chat with us a little bit about that and kind of tell us what that protocol might be. The temperature thing is really, really a struggle, right? Because so many people are exposed to temperature in different ways, right. When they see it on TV as a broadcaster, that temperature is likely the official temperature at a recording site with calibrated instrumentation and it may be, you know, 99, but at your place you have a thermometer in the backyard and it was 105 today. Right? Me And I'm I was way hotter than than that or you drove to the grocery store and the bank is saying 112 or like just yesterday I walk out onto an artificial turf football field at Norman High School here in central Oklahoma, and it is 177 on the turf. Right. So how can it be 177 112 105 99 all literally in the same place. And it just comes down to instrumentation, right? And and exposure. And it's very important to know that all of those temperatures are valid. Right? Because if we're dealing with heat injuries and possibly heat illness with a football team, that 177 is real. Right? That is a real temperature in sunshine on a football field where they're about to play. But the 99, which was the official observation, is the only way to really say, okay, what are we doing with the air that is going by without really regard to all of these different surfaces that are underneath it? So you do it in a sheltered environment. You do it in an environment where the word the breeze is going through, that instrument is calibrated, and then you hope to have a whole lot of those around so that you can actually see what the ambient temperature patterns look like because that information is vitally important to prediction. So we putting that into our weather forecast models to kind of understand if we started putting all of these 170 sevens in one twelves and all of those indoor weather models, they've never be able to handle that, we wouldn't be able to resolve the big picture of what weather is doing. And so those those are like the maisonette. For example, you've already mentioned that ability to calibrate and make sure that the temperature in the panhandle can be compared to the temperature in southeast Oklahoma. That's incredibly important to doing research both in the climate realm and in the weather forecasting realm. And Kevin, it's Joe. So you said calibration earlier, right? A properly calibrated thermometer. Could you explain what that is and what the protocols are for that? Oh, my gosh, Yes. And it's elaborate, right? Every one of our sensors in the measurement has a life history, a life story associated with it. Literally, it's biography. And so at the National Weather Center on the O.U. Campus in Norman, we have a laboratory with what are called calibration chambers. And these are two national standards. So when you have a national standard device that is reading 70, then you want to make sure that every instrument you put in is also reading 70 before you put it out in the field. If anybody's ever gone to Wal-Mart or a box store and looked at the temperatures in the garden center, right, the thermometers, you get your pick right. You can lay out all the thermometers in the garden center and one's reading 84, one's reading 82, one's reading 81, one's reading. You know, they're all different. And it's like, okay, do I want the hot one? Do I want the cold one? Which one do I want? Right? But there's no guarantee that any of them are correct. So what we do is we go through an elaborate it's a set of standards and those set of standards are applied to each instrument and just dirty little secret here, we love our instrument providers, but we don't believe anything anybody tells us, right? They can tell us that it's calibrated to a certain this. We don't believe it, right? The measurement is we do it ourselves, we do our calibrations ourselves. And that way we know that if we have an entire state full of 72 degree readings, there is 72 at every one of those sites, not 71, not 69, whatever it is. And that elaborate going through that testing and then what you do, you take it way up and you take it way down. And does that thermometer still perform Right? Does it perform all the way up to 115 and 120? And does it meet the standard there? Does it all the way to zero and minus five and minus ten? And does it meet the standard there? So it's not just a single temperature calibration, right? It is against an entire scale of readings within that standard chamber that then becomes the basis for us to be able to say, you know what, if the temperature changed in the average for a half a degree over 30 years, that you can take to the bank? Right. Because we know that each of those instruments are calibrated not like the one I have in my backyard. Right. Which is reading 107 right now. Right. You know, and it's like, okay, it's probably 107 where the thermometer is. But did that drift? I never calibrated that thermometer. And that's the big issue with bank thermometers. And, you know, you don't know how they've been calibrated or if it's against a standard or whether somebody chose the second one from the right at the Wal-Mart instead of the fourth one from the right, even though they were different when you bought them. So those are the things that we have to eliminate because it's about trust. All right. You guys know this man. We get clobbered. If you utter the word climate, you get clobbered. And it's it's very real. And if we are going to say this is what the data show, we better be able to back it up. Because if somebody can say, oh, well, well, you changed the location, right? You changed the location of your sensor, and if we did, then we've ruined the data for that location. So it's a little bit like real estate, right? Location, location, location, and then making sure that all of your instruments are calibrated back in covered, right? Oh, my gosh. Those little hand-held things that you go across your head with those. Oh, we had so much fun with those. Are that them, isn't it? Because I could figure out that I was running a fever and not a fever simultaneously, depending upon which one I picked up. And you can't go on that, right? It's why you see the, you know, those blood pressure machines in the hospital. They better be calibrated. You know, you can't have drift because you've got a physician making a life and death decision based upon that information. And we do. And take the same care with the instrumentation we have at the measurement. And Kevin, I think it's a little bit of discouraging for people who are listening to this. It's like, gosh, I thought I could trust my backyard thermometer. So for people, you know, and some people may not care about, you know, how close exactly, but I know some people do, they would like really want an accurate thermometer. They want the closest thing to an accurate temperature as possible. So do you have any recommendations for when people are go shopping for a thermometer? Is there anything that people can look for to be like, oh, I can trust this thermometer a little bit more when they're standing there at Home Depot trying to decide on a thermometer. Do you have any recommendations? Yeah, As far as buying a home thermometer, absolutely. What are your standing in the Home Depot looking at those thermometers, Download the medicine it out. And then if you got them, isn't it out? Now you've got statewide calibrated thermometers in every county and you can look at that map and take that to the bank. You know, that's a little self-serving, but there are some really good devices that are out there and you can kind of read the reviews. And there I mean, every year there's new toys, right, for the particularly for the meteorology hobbyist community. But again, hobbyist community, if you're interested in a temperature in your backyard, then, you know, buy what you think is the right thing for you, Right? I mean, that's that's I don't know that I have any better advice than that. There are some really expensive solutions and there are really inexpensive solutions, but it's going to be all about where you put it, where you site it. Is it in the shade? Is it in the sun, Is it on your roof? Is it on your shed? Is it and all of those are going to make a difference. And I've got like 15 of these in my backyard and they're never reading the same thing. Well, let's go back to that, to deciding that because that matters so much in my yard, I have a little tempest and we have a very well shaded canopy. And I cannot count on this at all for wind. But because of that, it does okay, because it's shaded with regard to temperature. But but talk about some of the siting challenges, whether it's maisonette, whether it's the FAA staff, whether it's the agencies, the the older generation in terms of trying to get the most accurate air temperature possible. How should you position in terms of distance off the ground, open space? Can you can you speak to those points a little bit? Right. And some of that is application based, right? So we have a number of agricultural providers where they're interested in the temperature near the ground or even in the ground. Right. So we take just as many soil temperature readings as we do air temperature readings for growers, producers, ranchers, you know, those kinds of things. And so siting sometimes is based upon the application. If you are looking at air temperature, usually that's human head height or something and pretty close to six feet, we have instruments that are higher up. We have that for different applications in the state of Oklahoma. And so the siting is going to depend on on what you're going to need it for. And what we do with our measurement sites is we make sure that each and every one of them are sited with the exact same standards and the same guidelines. So same underlying ground conditions, same distance away from trees or, you know, blocking buildings or whatever the case may. We've had to remove sites because there have been in Oklahoma, we've got this industry that's really coming up quick that likes to put out big, huge tents and grow nice green plants in them. And those have been a struggle for us because when you put those big green tents and those are the big white tents with the green plants in them, and you get them really close to maisonette sites, it changes the dew point, it changes the temperature, It essentially ruins the climate record and we have to decommission that site. And so we've had that issue in some places. All right. Well, Dr. Fazio, we're going to come back with you after the break here. And welcome back to the Across the Sky podcast. I'm Christine Lang alongside Matt Hollander. Joe Martucci and John Sublette. And we have Dr. Kevin Kloesel along with us today. And, you know, we were just talking a little bit about temperature readings, but I wanted to get into something that we were talking about or that you were discussing a lot throughout your answers. Is the Oklahoma Maisonette telling us a little bit about that program and kind of the back story on it? 30 years ago, there were scientists at Oklahoma State University that were working on agriculture that's there. They're calling card it at OSU and needing additional weather information to do a better job for farmers, ranchers, producers, growers, you name it, while at the same time we were having issues like the Tulsa flood and the Tulsa flood led the National Weather Service. And at the time Ken Crawford, who was at the Weather Service, to think that you know, if we had just more rainfall observations, we might have been able to forecast and reduce the loss of life in the Tulsa flood. And so there were two groups of people both talking about a weather network. And what was amazing is that through just almost good luck, right, as many do. Ron Elliott at Oklahoma State University and Ken Crawford at the Weather Service, who had recently moved to the University of Oklahoma to be the director of the climate survey at the time, started talking and said, you know what, All these other states, they have a forestry network, they have a transportation network, they have all these different disparate networks to do different things. What if we in Oklahoma used one network to meet the needs of all of these stakeholders? So they brought in agriculture and forestry and emergency management and the Weather Service and university researchers and people working on climate and weather and said, What would we like to have? And we put all of that in one network. So there is at least one in every county. We have 120 of those across the state. We have a calibration lab at Norman at the National Weather Center, where we do all the technical work. We have a research team, we have an outreach team. We provide the data to teachers, we provide the data to emergency managers, to the forestry, to ag, to fire to all of those various stakeholders. And it has been we are so lucky over three decades to have the support from every governor along the way, from Henry Belman on to Kevin Stitt, who just signed our legislation into law. Again, we have to go defend what we do and up like all the other agencies do. But we've been at this for 30 years. It is the preeminent the American Association for the Advancement of Science called it the gold standard. And now we've got copycats, right? We've got other state networks throughout the country that are all working towards what we hope to be someday, a national measurement so that we can do a much better job predicting weather and doing the monitoring right across all types of hazards. Yeah, I was going to ask in terms of building and business, right? I mean, you talk about funding. It is it is something that does require financial commitment. What do you guys do in terms of public outreach to let people know that, hey, you know, we're in Oklahoma, You know, we have a maisonette here. You know, I'm in New Jersey. We have amazing that that's really good. Not as good as you guys, but really good. So what do you do in terms of just letting people know, you know, throughout the state that, hey, this is what we're going on and this is the value provide you? So we have a very robust Web presence which provides data every 5 minutes across the board. And so the public loves it. We do it for irrigation planning, for landscape companies for how long concrete needs to cure for our construction company, for emergency managers, for EMS, for law enforcement, and the Oklahoma Bureau of Investigation, for forensic investigations after the fact. I mean, every imaginable place we can find a place to put our weather information, we are usually at their front door and weather. And so we do we go out. I mean, it is a door to door grassroots campaign going to agencies, going and training them how to use it. Right. That's equally important. You don't just throw data in somebody's hand and let them use it. That would be like Brant Venables throwing a football out on the field and say, Hey, go to it, right? And then you expect to have success. It doesn't work that way. So there is an extensive training program that goes on. We've covered forced us into developing online training modules and that's actually really helped us out because it's allowed us to reach places that maybe we didn't think we could reach before. So between the gold standard of how we do our calibration and how we maintain the efficiency as well as our 99.999 ability to bring weather data into the hands of people that need it. We also spend a significant amount of time in local jurisdictions or in county courthouses, in vo techs, in schools, in, you know, EOC, you name it, across the board to train people how to use it as well. We're thrilled that we're turning 30 in 2024 and we will definitely celebrate that. And Kevin, I wanted to follow up with the national measurement because that sounds real exciting. If we can spread this way in Oklahoma across the country, that would be awesome. And I know we're making progress with that. So what's the current status of it and when do you think we'll be achieving that goal of having a true national measurement? So great question. In the national measurement is getting as much funding as we've ever gotten, which is a testament to the value that there is because the National Weather Service and the federal government, it's almost unanimously supported in U.S. House and Senate that is very difficult to achieve by the way, at this point in time is some sort of unanimous consensus on some sort of bill. That just doesn't happen. But my goodness gracious, I cannot thank Congressman Lucas enough here in Oklahoma because he sees the value nationally. Yes, he's in Oklahoma. Yes, he's a rancher. He sees the value of the measurement, but he wants everybody to have one, too. So there's now funding pouring in to over two dozen states to help them along with things like calibration and siting and instruments and and that kind of stuff. And I would hope that by the next, oh, ten years or so that we've got all 50 states with it with a measurement. That would be lovely. I hear Maryland is next. Yes. Here on our side of the Potomac. I'm not sure what the status is. I think we have a long way to go to start securing funding for doing that kind of work here in Virginia. But, you know, we've got a we've got a big bay, we've got a lot of mountains, we've got a lot of valleys, we've got coastal plains. We got all that stuff. But I would love Amazon out in Virginia. But now back to Caleb, Maryland, to calibrate guns right now. So I know they are back to calibration real quick. Recently, you know, we were under the big heat dome, of course, across the middle part of the country. A lot of the corn is in bloom. In the corn Belt. We've seen some exceedingly high heat, but also very high humidity. And there's been a little buzz on like how why is it so humid? You know, the part of that is what we call corn sweat, which I'd like you to explain when you can. But is there any other kind of calibration issue that that we're concerned about generally with instrumentation when we're trying to figure out humidity? Right. And man, humidity is so hard. Temperature is easy in comparison. It really is. And the reason why moisture measurements are so hard is because moisture measurements in many instances are so dominated sometimes by what's coming up out of the ground. So moisture at low levels, yes, you can have, you know, humid air moving in from somewhere else off of the bay, off of a lake, off of the stream, whatever it is. But at the same time, if you had rain in the past week and you know how summertime rain is, right, it rains across the street, but not at your house. Well, that means that that green lawn across the street is going to transpire. Moisture into the atmosphere locally there that you're not going to have in your yard because you didn't get rain. So it's still brown. And so if I put a dew point sensor or relative humidity sensor in that yard versus my yard, I'm going to get two dramatically different readings. So siding is also a huge issue as it pertains to moisture because moisture variability in soil is so high. If it's a clay soil, you get different moisture profile than a sandy soil. And in Oklahoma, we've got some sensors that are, you know, far apart and we get dramatically different because, well, it's a little sandy over here and it's a little more clay here. But just above that, that means that the dew point will actually be different. So wherever your moisture sensor happens to be, that's what it's going to register. So in many instances, sometimes with our dew point and relative humidity sensors, we do get a lot of local variation involved in that reading, much like we talked about earlier with the bank temperature and the field temperature and you know, those things Now you mentioned calibration, huge. Do you calibrate your moisture sense there's a temperature and you can calibrate them in a chamber and change the relative humidity and that's one thing. But are you also calibrating the moisture sensors and do they perform the same way when it's 110 as they do when it's 30? And so, again, going to great lengths to calibrate across the multitudes of parameters that you would see. And does your sensor work in all of those situations. And I know with like many of our backyard things, man, the humidity sensor goes off the rails when it gets really, really hot. And that has nothing to do with the moisture sensor, but the moisture sensor is getting really hot. And when it gets really hot, it doesn't measure the same way anymore. So you have to be careful again. And moisture, like I said, it is so difficult because of the variability, because of rainfall variability. And heck, once it rains, well, where does all the water go? The water flows downhill or soaks in or depending upon the soil, creates a puddle in your yard? Well, depending upon where I put that moisture sensor, I'm going to see those differences on a local scale. And, you know, like we saw with the heat index in Lawrence, Kansas, just the other other day, which was actually a kind of a national sensor there, but it's on a gravel parking lot. Okay. That's almost no different than me going out to the football field with 177. Right. If you don't play football on a gravel parking lot, you are going to get really high temperature values, therefore really high heat index values. We struggle with irrigation. You mentioned corn sweat, right? If we have in fact, we just flagged a bunch of data because we noticed in our our pictures and we take pictures every time we go to a site that we had corn encroaching on our site a little bit closer than it had in the past. So we actually flagged that data because we know it's corn doing the same thing we do when we get hot. We perspire. Corn does the same thing and does it a lot and become, you know, you get Iowa and Illinois with those massively high dew points because of the corn fields as well as downstream. Right. So of wind blows that air downstream, then you see that there as well. So it's you know, we have an irrigation problem now. I mean, if somebody is watering next door and it blows into your yard, well, your moisture sensor is going to see that. So I remember back in the day, right. I always grew up I grew up in Austin, Texas. And so the National Weather Service was sitting at the end of the runway at the old airport in Austin. Well, that's where the sensor was. Every time a plane took off, you could see it because it was in the jet wash. Every time they watered the grass, the golf course across the street, and we had southerly winds. You saw it because now Austin has this massive heat index because of jet wash and golf course irrigation. Right. And those are combining literally over the sensor. So, again, you have to be cognizant about your location. Again, that's you know, we try to control that in the measurement by where we put things. So I have I have two more questions for you. One of them you just mentioned, you're from Austin. I noticed you graduated from from U.T.. Does did everyone know you give you a little a little slack for that? Not a little. A lot. That is that is the understatement of the year. Yes. In fact, I don't mean to interrupt, but this is the story about my becoming director of the climate survey. I had been working at O.U. For a pretty good period of time. My email address, Longhorn at O.U. Dot edu and of course, everybody was giving me grief and a lot of grief. And so when I went through the interview process, they said, Well, Kevin, climate, climate, that's a that's a you don't use that word in Oklahoma, right? You know, those are those are you're too nice. How are you going to be able to take all the heat, all the criticism? And in my interview, I simply said, I have I'm a Longhorn grad in Norman. Right. They can't keep on any more abuse than I have already taken. They all start laughing and they're like, okay, your job, you know, you have the job. It's so yeah, it's it's been a funny thing around here, but it's it's, it's hilarious sometimes. Oh, I bet. I bet the other thing I was going to ask you, too, as you mentioned earlier about the hasn't it turning 30 next year, can you just briefly explain why that is such a big deal for us here in the weather world? So in the weather world, 30 years has significance. We have kind of looked at 30 years as a generation. And back in the agricultural days when climate was was really something that was important to agricultural growers and things like that. There was a sort of a group of people got together and said, you know what, 30 years is going to be our benchmark for how we determine climatology. So our averages are all 30 year averages, whether that's rainfall, whether that's temperature, whatever the case may be. So against the background of people using 30 years as their standard for climatology, we become the first Oklahoma becomes the first regional state wide network with 30 years of data. And so therefore, we will have the most detailed look at a climatology in Oklahoma than anywhere else in the world. And that will give researchers the opportunity to do things for decades with the data that we provide. And Kevin, I like your Longhorn pride because I went to you as well. Glad that you're here. You're sticking it out in Norman. I man, that is got to be tough. I cannot imagine the great insecurity, especially around oh, you weekend. And before we wrap up, the last thing I want to get your opinion on and kind of inform people about, because one of the things I see the most common when people are talking about how hot is like when friends now that I'm in Chicago are telling me the temperatures back in Texas, the most common thing I see is people taking pictures of the thermometer in their car and showing that reading. And it's usually a very ridiculously high reading, but there's a pretty big floor with those temperature readings in cars. Correct. And what is that flaw and what should people be watching out for and kind of take with a grain of salt when it comes to those car thermometers? I'm not advocating distracted driving, first of all. So you shouldn't be paying attention to that thermometer anyway. Hopefully those pictures were all taken at a red light or stop sign. But at the same time, if you've ever driven around, you know that when you start driving, that temperature value goes down and when you stop, the temperature value goes back up again. And so where that thermometer is mounted on your vehicle, when you have ventilation, right, when you have air going by, you're getting more of a feel for what the air temperature is outside, but you're still exposed to the pavement temperature, the engine temperature and all of those kinds of things. When you stop, that's when that temperature skyrockets because of where it's mounted on the vehicle. You are now contributing from the engine, from the hot pavement. In fact, if you want to try this at home, go drives blacktop versus sort of a gravel road versus sort of a, you know, a parking lot that's white or a lighter color and you'll see dramatic differences, even in the same town on your vehicle's thermometer. Again, based upon location, location, location and where you put that thermometer. So, yeah, those are totally unrealistic, although it's real from a standpoint of what that portion of the car is feeling. Right. I mean, that is the temperature at that spot. So if you put a thermometer on your dashboard and of course, the other popular thing is to put cookies up there as well. Right. And bake their cookies in the dash, you can actually get partially baked cookies from a car because it does get hot enough to do that. So, you know, if you want to make good use of that, that's that's another good thing to do. It just don't do it while you're driving. All right, Dr. Faisal, thank you so much for joining us. We really enjoyed having you on this week. Absolutely. My pleasure. It was great to be here. Great to see all of you. All right. Great interview with Dr. Faisal. You know, he really knows his stuff. And I love how he explained things to you. You can definitely tell he's a professor because he really kind of gets into it in a way that you can understand, I'd say. But, you know, it's neat to hear all the stuff that he's working on. He's a very busy man from, you know, working with you to the medicine. Ed, He was talking about working with Drum Corps engineers earlier. We were talking with him off off of the camera. But, you know, it's good just to get kind of the background on all of this because I think a lot of people just don't understand how much goes into it from the calibration and everything just to the environment being right for it, for a temperature to take readings. Yeah, it's very tricky. It's a little more complex than than we might like. You can get a, you know, a general idea with with not without very high end calibration, but you know, when we start doing long term studies, we're trying to get high precision information, calibration, location, all those stuff. So important. Yeah. I just like how, you know, debunk to the car thermometers because people love those car thermometers, but those high temperature readings, I mean that just coming off the pavement. But he talked about, you know, it's kind of alarming that you got that 170 degree temperature of a football field. I mean, the surface that you you measure temperature over matters so much. And so that's why you have to keep that in mind. He talked about location, location, location, when it comes to taking these temperature readings. And that's very mature, even though but the alarming thing is like those can actually be again, there's some debate about how calibrated the thermometers are, but it is true. But it is going to be hotter overpayment that comes back to the whole urban heat island effect. That's why cities are hotter than areas in the country. If you have a lot of pavement and blacktop, it is going to be hotter. But for accurate temperature reasons, it should be over a natural ground service, a grass surface. Otherwise the temperatures are going to be hotter. So take that a grain of salt. You see these really high temperature readings in your car and it doesn't match what the meteorologist on TV or on your favorite weather app is saying. That's why because it's a time to write off of the pavement and so that temperature is likely going to be hotter than the real official temperature of it's going to be recorded in the city that day. Yeah, it was funny how he was talking about what was in Austin with the golf course, water watering the lawn. If there was a South when you could see the dew point go up in the air, there's you know, there's a lot of variables into what goes into a temperature reading, but the calibration is key. Like he and also do I mean you don't shout out to them for keeping this going for 30 years because, you know, it does take a lot of commitment to showing value to stakeholders. Of course, you know, people in the political world who are, you know, providing funding for this. So to get this in Oklahoma for a number of states is is incredible. And I think, you know, just be as a consumer of weather, you know, you want to know what's happening. Oh, what's happening in my house. Right. That's always the thing. Right. So the message on that is is a step closer to telling you, oh, this is exactly what's happening at my house. So if you think about it that way, it's definitely something that's beneficial for every state that has it across the country. And maybe the national one comes to. Yeah, now they're looking forward to that day. I know. Let's, let's hope that, you know, a couple of things before we wrap up here. I Joe said it earlier than earlier, but we want to say thank you to Deidre for writing in and and you know, sparking this this topic. Joe, if people want to get in touch with us, tell us a couple of ways they can do that. So you can email podcasts at Lee dot net if you want to check out or send us an email about what's going on, that's great too. We also have a voicemail line that we would love to hear you from Amstell for the next 5 seconds while I pull up that phone number because I forgot it off the top of my head. But if you do want to give a call and try to figure out what's going on or ask this question, whether it's, you know, about climate or weather or yeah, something about us and what we're doing in the weather world. You can give us a call at 609-272-7099; 609-272-7099. It's very close to my work line number, so if you dial digital you may get me directly. But but there you go. You can give us an email. She has the phone call as well. Whatever works. Awesome. And you know what? Next week kind of put ahead to what you can expect for next week's release. We sat down and we spoke with Sally Warner from Brandeis University, and Noel Gutierrez was way from the from UC San Diego. And the two of them have some really interesting information on the warming that's going on in the deeper ocean currents. And it's all happening from hurricanes. I mean, it's something that's naturally occurring from hurricanes, but it's really quite fascinating. It was a great interview. So catch that. That'll be released then on September 4th. Labor Day On Labor Day. Absolutely. So, yeah, Labor Day weekend, however everyone enjoys it. All right. Thanks again for joining us this week from Across the Sky podcast. Kirsten Lang in Tulsa with Matt Holiner and Joe Martucci. Have a wonderful week and stay safe.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Before cool fall days arrive, the first weeks of football practice and games come in the August heat. High-intensity drills beneath the hot sun can do serious harm to the body, even to those in excellent shape. This week, the team talks with Dr. Douglas Casa at the University of Connecticut's Korey Stringer Institute about how to manage the heat and recognize heat illness before it's too late. Casa also discusses the importance of high school teams having athletic trainers and weighs in on which is better: water or sports drinks like Gatorade.  Korey Stringer was an offensive lineman in the NFL for six seasons who died on Aug. 1, 2001, due to complications brought on by heat stroke during training camp with the Minnesota Vikings. We want to hear from you! Have a question for the meteorologists? Call 609-272-7099 and leave a message. You might hear your question and get an answer on a future episode! You can also email questions or comments to podcasts@lee.net. About the Across the Sky podcast The weekly weather podcast is hosted on a rotation by the Lee Weather team: Matt Holiner of Lee Enterprises' Midwest group in Chicago, Kirsten Lang of the Tulsa World in Oklahoma, Joe Martucci of the Press of Atlantic City, N.J., and Sean Sublette of the Richmond Times-Dispatch in Virginia. Episode transcript Note: The following transcript was created by Adobe Premiere and may contain misspellings and other inaccuracies as it was generated automatically: Hello, everyone. I'm meteorologist Sean Sublette and welcome to Across the Sky, our National Lee Enterprises weather podcast. Lee Enterprises has print and digital news operations in more than 70 locations across the country, including my home base in Richmond, Virginia. I'm joined by my meteorology colleagues from across the sky, Matt Holiner in Chicago, Kirsten Lang in Tulsa, and my buddy at the Jersey Shore, Joe Martucci, with the Press of Atlantic City. Our guest this week is Dr. Douglas Casa at the University of Connecticut's Korey Stringer Institute, where they research and advocate for athletes at all levels regarding safety and performance. Basically, we're talking about football practice in the heat this week. For those who not familiar, Korey Stringer was an offensive tackle for the Minnesota Vikings. He died from exertional heat stroke during the NFL training camp in August of oh one. He played in 93 regular season games in his family, worked directly with Dr. Casa to develop the institute in the years that followed. He'll talk more about that in just a little bit. But I want each one of us to briefly talk about what we liked. I kind of liked the end when we had the all important Gatorade versus water question. What are some of the things that that you really took home from from this discussion? We had. Let's start with you, Joe. The Gatorade versus water ones. Good. You didn't bring up Powerade, though, Sean. Should have, you know, power ranked the three. I'm of old school. There is there is lemon lime in orange and that is it. I am that Gen-X dude. Oh, I love and light. Good and lemon lime is good. So you're going to hear the word wet bulb globe temperature a couple of times here throughout the pod. So it's a measure of heat stress. I'll let him talk more about it. But it's very important. And, you know, if you're an athletic trainer, you probably know what it is if you're not. It's a newer concept that us meteorologists and those in the weather industry are trying to bring to light. Yeah. And I think for me, the thing that stands out about this is everyone can relate to this because there's so many people involved with football with especially early on in the season and are used to this. You know, if you're not an athlete, there's so many people, the bands that go to the games, the cheerleaders is the fans, and there are a lot of games I can think of some Texas football games in Austin, Texas. Usually that first game of the season, if it was a kickoff at 11 a.m. or 230, it's not just the players on the field that are feeling the heat, but the fans in the stands. So this is just so relevant to so many people in August and early September, because especially in the south and southeast, where a lot of these heat related deaths do occur. With football, I mean, you can still have some really hot days. And this summer is a great example with all of the heat advisories. And heat warnings has been hot summer. And so it's probably could be an extra hot start to the football season as well. And he talks to just about, you know, just the symptoms that you can expect if you are potentially coming on with heat exhaustion or heat stroke. But then he also goes into treatment and what they do on the field with some of these players, if they are starting to experience some of those symptoms. So be on the lookout for that as well. Yeah, very good information coming with that. Let's get right to our conversation with Dr. Douglas Costa at the Korey Stringer Institute up at the University of Connecticut. And Dr. Douglas Casa is a professor of kinesiology at the University of Connecticut and the CEO of the Korey Stringer Institute. And this time of year, August, with football practice, is underway ahead of the season. Heat, of course, is top of mind, causes passion for this line of research began in 1985 when he suffered exertional heat stroke while running a 10-K, thus motivating his career research. The study of exertional heat stroke, heat illnesses, hydration and prevention of sudden death in sports. Dr. Kaza, thank you for joining us on the Across the Sky podcast. Honored to be here. Thank you for having me. So let's get right into this. Talk to me about this time of year, the risks to heatstroke, specifically with football players, what happened with Korey and how this kind of worked into this this broader the institute that you develop. Very as many people know, Korey Stringer passed away in 2000, one from exertional heat stroke, the only NFL player to die during a practice or a conditioning session or a game in the hundred year history of the of the sport. And I assisted his widow during some legal proceedings that took place as an expert witness for the next eight years. And Commissioner Goodell and his widow, Kelsey Stringer, reached out in 2009, asked, and if we want to host a lasting legacy for Korey, because they knew my expertise and my passion for the topic and we open our doors. In 2010, we had three people and we opened our doors and now we have 80 people who work at KCI. There's 25 staff and 55 volunteers and we're focused on health and safety issues for the athlete warfighter and labor and, you know, conduct research, do a lot of public health initiatives, advocacy testing of individuals. So I've been able to, you know, serve a pretty wide audience. All right. So let's let's step back a little bit about what what conditions were like in this environment in terms of football practices and the like 20 years or so ago. Now, a lot of this stuff is kind of intuitive. It's hot. You need to take it slow, you need to hydrate. But what other kinds of things you know, we're missing, you know, 20 years ago and we still need to to improve on. I mean, there's I think you and I remember a time where we were just told it's hot, drink some water. Keep going. Obviously, that's not the right answer. So talk a little bit about those things. So we can put it into three buckets, things that prevent the heat stroke from happening in the first place, things you can do to recognize it as quickly as possible, and then things you would do to treat it affects each stroke does present itself. So first, from the realm of prevention, there are kind of five big ticket items. One is heat acclimatization. That's the phasing in of activity across time in the first week or two. So going a little lighter, doing, you know, single day sessions, having dawn, having successive days of two days phasing and equipment. It's important for your audience to know that almost all heat strokes, more than 80%, happened in the first week of activity. When people are returning or doing something, whether it be military training, a person at a job working in the heat or an athlete in football training. Second item is measuring the environmental conditions and making modifications to the work to rest ratios on more extreme days, having more breaks that are longer. Third item is cooling strategies, having cold wet towels available during breaks, having shade available during breaks or whatever else you can do to cool someone to limit the rise of their body temperature. Fourth is hydration having fluid available, not having to have official breaks to access fluid, accessing fluid anytime you need a fifth. This kind of individual factors when people are on certain medications. Supplements have had previous problems in the heat, recent illnesses or injuries where they've been away from sport, they put them at greater risk. So those are the buckets that kind of fall into the realm of prevention of heat stroke. Dr. Kaiser, I want to go back, if that's okay, and talk some about environmental factors, aside from what many would think, you know, just simple heat index, I spoke with some trainers here in the Tulsa area and and they said that the wet bulb temperature was really something that they went off of. When it goes to or when it comes to those environmental factors. Can you talk a little bit about that and what you might have saw it? Yeah, it's a great question. So we do something called the WBC, which is a wet bulb globe temperature, which factors in like a bunch of different key environmental considerations. One is obviously the ambient temperature, the relative humidity, the radiant heat load, which is key because heat index is really limiting and should never be used in sports because heat index by it's when it was originally developed, was done in the shade for people at rest. And that's just not relevant for an athlete who's exercising in the sun and doing intense exercise. So what about globe temperature? 75% of the thermal load is the humidity, about 20% is the radiant heat load. 10% is the ambient conditions. It also factors and wind speed to some of those calculations so that we always we set up the work to rest ratio guidelines best based on the web of temperature measures that we get. And it's also really important that you're measuring those on site and never, ever relying on weather station data that could be 20 miles away because the artificial turf or the black track with the pavement of a tennis court, all those surfaces are very, very, very different than what you would get from a local weather station. Hey, Dr. Costa, I'm going to follow up on this because I really like using the Whipple globe temperature. But and this is more of like from a societal perspective, the one issue I have with it and I reason why I don't know how far this is going to take off using this on a public basis is simply because a lot of these temperatures are lower than the heat index or even the air temperature, depending on what it is. I mean, you have I believe you would know better than I, but I believe when you're above 90, that's really significant. But someone might see 90 or 91 at the end. It's not that bad. So yeah, I see. I see you laughing a little bit over there. So how do you kind of blend those two together and, you know, go forward with this? Yeah, that's a great, great point. If I started things all over again, I would have done a plus 40 correction factor for web temperature that just magically makes it higher because you're totally right, 92 web of globe temperature. You have to cancel all training in the military like you'd be court martial that you continue activity and that's by a 92 a person Louisiana years and this is the most mild day of the whole summer I'm right so but yeah so people in the medical field the athletic trainers who are working at the high schools, they understand those measures and they're just there. They've proven to have great value for reducing heat illness load. And right now at the high school level, almost every high school in America now has a web temperature meter, which is really good in terms of progress. But I do get your what you're saying related to the numbers, not translating to the general society in terms of being as meaningful. Yeah. And Doug, I think it's also just confusing for people because when we issue heat advisories and the excessive heat warnings, which have become quite common, particularly this summer, those are based on the feels like come to the heat index, which is just looking at temperature and humidity. So that's what people are most used to. I mean, at first it was just getting people educated about what the fuels like temperature really means and remembering that you have to include humidity. And so then you add in other factors and people get real confused and it goes beyond even what the National Weather Service is warning for. So for people that are not used to dealing with wet bulb temperatures, it's good that people are, you know, especially those at high schools and at the training level, are educated on on what that means. But for the general public, is there a particular feels like temperature or air temperature that should really start to raise kind of those alarm bells, like, okay, this is a type of this is a temperature where I do need to actually take extra precautions when it comes to just looking at the feels like temperature, is there a threshold that people should really focus on for when it could be can actually become dangerous for athletes? Yeah, that's a it's a good question. It's tough because I don't really think there's a great metric really for the public necessarily because heat index is completely useless. I mean, I can't tell you how useless it is. It doesn't take into account sun or the radiant heat load. So if you're in Phenix in the middle of the day, and you know what that feels like, you feel like you're going to little cook or melt that sun factor is not factored into heat index unless you're doing that very arbitrary. Plus 15 Are that like, you know, oh, sure somebody puts on their website that you should add on a full sun to the heat index measure. But that's completely arbitrary. So it's not really an objective measure. So it's a tough call in terms of, you know, having these metrics because you didn't, like I said, is a shade measure at rest. And that's just not super useful for us. So we want something that really humidity and the radiant a fact of the sun directly are really the key factors that we want to have people consider. Yeah, I think that's one of the things that really needs to be ratcheted up in terms of environmental and weather communications. I think we remember a time where we always would talk about, well, what is it in a shade and what is it in the sun? And we've kind of lost that in a lot of aspects in weather and environmental communications that the sun matters and it matters a lot in that summer. The sun is higher up in the sky. Your skin itself is going to be heated by the sun way more than it is in a December or January day. Could you speak a little bit about that more in terms of it? When we look at what bulb globe temperature and we talk about the incoming solar or radiant, does that kind of fluctuate with seasonal ality in terms of sun angle? Yeah. With cloud cover at a little, could you dive a little bit more into that? Yeah. So the radiant heat load is not just the direct radiant heat load. It's also got remember how much we get from the reflection. You know, you're on a black surface or the turf surface, so a full sun versus a full cloud day could mean artificial turf being 150 degrees versus 115 degrees going to be very, very different in terms of what you're handling. And most people don't realize, I mean, you have four ways you can kill yourself infection, conduction, radiation and evaporation. Three of those are completely dictate on how it relates to your skin temperature. So your skin temperature rises around 93 degrees. If it's higher than 93 ambient outside, you're absorbing heat from the environment via radiation conduction and convection. And the only way to cool yourself is with evaporation. And that's what the sweat droplet evaporating. But if you're in humid conditions like in the southeast, where almost all of the heatstroke deaths take place in athletics, you have no ability to cool yourself because of the sweat drop. It doesn't evaporate then you don't actually cool yourself at all. You're only losing fluid. And so the radiant heat load is really, really critical because one, you can absorb heat, but you're also getting the reflection from the surface that you're playing on. And that's why full sun versus full cloud is has so much influence on on the measures that we have and what influence it has for risk of heat on us. Another thing about acclimatization, as you mentioned, most of these deaths in heat stroke, heat exhaustion, all of this tends to be in the southeast. How much in terms of acclimatization do we see with regard to people in relatively cooler climates, let's say in in coastal Oregon or Washington or northern New England, where it doesn't get as hot in general, but they do get a locally hotter day. Just talk about how the body reacts if you live in a different climate, if you live in a northern climate versus a southern climate, how much does does the body kind of acclimate over over time as this climate, illogically? I mean, it takes about 7 to 10 days to get about 90% of the physiological changes associated with heat acclimatization. And that can happen in Massachusetts or Oregon or Louisiana. I mean, you just need a football player practicing in August and it's 86 degrees in Massachusetts. Instead of like 102 on Louisiana, they're still going to get heat acclimatized. I mean, they're still going to make those changes, those physiological changes. You get to heat acclimatized if your body temperature is over 102 for about an hour of activity and if that happens for five, six, seven days out of a ten day stretch. So you need to have that trigger. And for a football player to practice, especially any linemen, they're going to be over one or two for a couple of hours of the practice session. So heat acclimatization can happen regardless of the climate you're in. It's happen a little bit faster if you're in a hot weather climate because obviously you're going to get a little more hypothermia because of the environmental conditions. But that's going to happen everywhere. And that's why we need we work for heat acclimatization guidelines in all 50 states. We work for WEP up temperature guidelines in all 50 states, because those are two separate things that people need to consider. The phasing in of activity across the first week is different than making modifications based on the environmental conditions. We're sure. All right. So when we come back on Across the Sky podcast, we're going to have more with Douglas Casa, specifically about football this time of year. So stay with us. And we're back with Dr. Douglas Costa from the University of Connecticut's Korey Stringer Institute, talking about heat, sports and especially football this time of year. The regular season kicking off very shortly, just another 2 to 3 weeks or so specifically August heat football practice this time of year. We talked earlier in the podcast today about kind of working your way into it, starting off slow in the first few days of practice and then kind of building up as time goes on to get kind of acclimatized to the conditions. Talk a little bit about how, you know, and some of this is intuitive, but, you know, extra padding, how much how much extra heat the body is generating when it is exerting itself versus taking it more slowly. One of the first checks we tell people is to get fit first before they worry about heat acclimatization. So if you can do conditioning, you know, through the weeks in July when you're in no gear and you're not specifically doing football practices, you can help your conditioning with them in the actual formal football practices start, We've made a lot of modifications to policy over the last 20 years. The NCAA has done at the NFL most state high school athletic associations have adopted it and that is the first five or six days. There's no two a day practices. You phase in the equipment. So the first three or four days you might only have a helmet on. Then after those periods of times you maybe add some shells and then you can go to full gear, maybe after a week and then after the first week you don't have to have two days on successive days. So there's all these modifications to intensity and duration and the general stress to the body over that first 7 to 10 days to really protect people. Because like I said, the first week, they're at the greatest risk. So what can we do to decrease risk in that first week? Again, you know, slowly enhancing increasing the stress is one thing you can do. About how much more body heat, if you can quantify this, is generally when you're exercising, you know, at a level where you're doing wind sprints, when you're doing drills, obviously, I mean, again, some of this is intuitive, but is there a way to quantify how much more heat the body is generating? It's a good question. So, I mean, that the biggest factor that dictates the rate of rise of your body temperature is the intensity of the activity. So, yes, if you can not do really intense conditioning sessions, having more breaks, that's going to decrease the intensity, especially in that first week. And the second biggest factor that drives your rate of rise of body temperature is the environmental conditions. So obviously on more extreme days, taking more breaks, trying to have practices during times of the day when it's not as extreme. I'm having availability of shade during break periods and those are just like kind of tools we have available to us to decrease that risk. Doug If someone wants, you know, they want information from you about how to reduce their heat risk, it's a let's say it's a I don't know, let's say it's professional team or we can even say it's a college team, you know, how do they go about reaching out to you? And, you know, what are your communications like with that? So, yeah, I mean, I've worked with all 32 NFL teams, hundreds of college teams, some of the top pro teams around the world. I mean, people reach out to us directly, a Class I, we consult with some of them. We give advice, you know, more, you know, quick advice, like in an hour of phone call with some others. So it all depends on the circumstances. We have a lot of people who have had problems in the heat in the past and they come to us for testing so we can figure out their sweat rate and their sweat electrolyte concentrations and give them strategies. We've had people who've had heat strokes and who are unfortunately not treated properly and who did not recover properly. And they need help, you know, maybe getting back to their sport or their job. So, yeah, we have a lot of interactions with, you know, organizations governing bodies. But also the athletes themselves. And it seems like a lot of people are reaching out to you and trying to become better informed about this. But my wonder is how many are really taking this seriously? I think a lot of you might be listening to podcasts like, Huh, I wonder if the school that my kids are going to are following these procedures. So how do you know if your school or your team is following these procedures? And how do we know that, you know, people are really adopting this because it seems like there could be something like, oh, I can I can take advantage. We'll start the two days a week earlier than all those other guys and feel like they get a competitive advantage that way. So I can also see this as a way it's like, oh, this is our this is the way we're going to get ahead. But that seems like that'll be, of course, a dangerous decision to make. So how could someone, you know, really find out if their school is really following these procedures and is sticking to this plan? Yeah, Matt, that's I'm so really happy you brought that up. So the biggest thing I would tell any parent America of a high school athlete is make sure their high school has an athletic trainer. That's the licensed medical professional that takes care of medical conditions. About two thirds of high schools in America right now have athletic trainers. But if their kid is playing a sport right now at a high school level, especially the higher risk sports like football, soccer, basketball, running and really any sport, they should be concerned if they don't have an athletic trainer because they don't have an athletic trainer, then the coach is going to decide if their kid lives or dies when there's a cardiac event, when there's a heat stroke, a cycling crisis, a head injury. And we don't want that coach deciding if your kid is going to live or die. So that's the most important thing I would tell any parent in America is make sure their high school has an athletic trainer there. During all the practices and games. And that would be a great start because that athletic trainer is going to make sure they have the way they're meeting the state regulations for heat acclimatization. Or what about globe temperature guidelines for work to rest ratio issues for, you know, pre participation physicals that that a trainer is the steward, you know, to make sure all those things are taking place. You don't want to rely on the athletic director or other coaches for medical care. And Dr. Corso, this might be very kind of elementary, just taking it back to basics. But if we have any students that are listening to this podcast right now, can you just give them some bullet points on things to be aware of that could be leading to heat exhaustion or heat stroke? Just a couple of things that they may start to notice. No, that's good. Yeah. About 50% of the cases of heatstroke have prodromal signs and symptoms, meaning they'll exhibit issues before the collapse. It's important for two things. One, you kind of notice things early, but two, sometimes you never notice things early. And the first indication is the problem is they're collapsed in front of you and we have to act quickly. But some common signs and symptoms, the biggest ones is for heatstroke. Two, to make it different than heat exhaustion. You know, one dies from heat exhaustion, people die from heatstroke. And the biggest difference between those two is central nervous system dysfunction, meaning, and heat stroke. They might have confusion, combativeness, agitation, a lot of just not paying attention. I'm saying irrational things. That's that's something that separates it from heat exhaustion. But then some of the common things would be like headache, nausea, vomiting, dizziness, lightheadedness. But those can exhibit themselves in both heat stroke and heat exhaustion. And so a central nervous system stop that separates that. And also extreme body temperature at the time of collapse is a big difference. Heat strokes are 105 or one of six or greater at the time of collapse, where heat exhaustion will be in the 102 to 104 range. But obviously that athletic trainer would be doing that. The accurate core body temperature measure too, to know that they're dealing with a heat stroke. About how long between the time that somebody starts to exhibit these symptoms of potential heat stroke before there is there is a you know, they collapse. So I'm assuming it runs the gamut that, you know, as soon as you recognize the symptoms, you need to act immediately. But have these symptoms been known to go on 20, 40, 60 Minutes before somebody collapses? I'm always trying to think in my head these are the signs. This is how long I have. These are the actions that need to be taken. Right? Yeah, it's a good question. I mean, when I say collapsed, it doesn't necessarily reach the point of collapse for everybody. It might be someone they walk back to the wrong huddle or they're screaming at the coach and they would never normally do that. Or they might be punching a teammate or they might be, I'm just going to sit near the bleachers and they're incoherent, you know, And they're still conscious, though. So anything that's off like that, if someone had been doing intense exercise in the heat and you've ruled out that it's a cardiac event, we always tell people to assume it's heat stroke until proven otherwise. You have from the moment it presents itself, we have 30 minutes to get their temperature under 100 for if we want to assure survivability without long term complications to damage to their organs. So if someone's starting a one hour wait or 129, which is typical, starts for a heat stroke and you want to get them under one of four. That's why almost every high school in America has cold water immersion tubs. Over 80% of high schools have them. All college football programs have them all. 32 NFL teams have them because cold water immersion has the best cooling rates. So if we can get someone in a tub after they show signs of heat stroke, you can get them under 104 within 15 to 20 minutes. And that's the window. And there's a concept called cool first transport Second, even if there's an ambulance there, you don't put them in the ambulance. You finish cooling in the tub because that has the best cooling rates and then you send them to the hospital. And Doug, I wonder if you have any numbers on the number of heat strokes that are associated with sports and then also the number of fatalities. Are there any specific numbers that are associated with it? Yeah. So the National Catastrophic Center for Sports Injury Research Center did UNC-Chapel Hill that we partner with them on the Exertional Division here at KCI. And we generally see for the high school level like four or five deaths a year on average if you took it over like a ten year stretch. But obviously there's many hundreds of heat stroke that happen every single year at the high school level. Most of them are in either cross-country running or football, with football being the leading sport. And the big thing is, like I mentioned before, someone can have a heat stroke and have permanent damage, like they can have damage to the liver, their kidneys, their brain, their heart. So they might survive the heat stroke so it doesn't get recorded as a death, but their life is never the same after. And that happens to most people who are not treated properly, have long term or permanent complications. Doug, we're going to wrap it on up and we really appreciate all the time, but I got one last question for you here on that question. So you got your master's degree from University of Florida and then you got your Ph.D. in exercise physiology from UConn. So who's going have more football wins this season, UConn or Florida? The trickier question if people might think it's so. It's a good question. My university of Florida, I'm going to guess, is going to have more obviously a little more of a football tradition. But UConn had a decent season last year, hoping to, you know, build back to where we were some years ago. But yeah, so UConn is my my basketball school and university of my my football school because. Area. That makes. Perfect sense up there for the fall in the winter. You're good until March. Yeah. My wife and I are alums of both schools so we we got to have an assortment of of teams to cheer for. That makes perfect sense. For sure. For sure. Oh, one more question for for we sum up Gatorade versus water. Man. I still hear this all the time. Does it really matter or is just water just fine, though? In most circumstances, water is fine. But if you're doing more than an hour of activity and it's intense exercise in the heat, I would always encourage you to have sodium in the beverage because it helps with retention of fluid and it encourages the thirst mechanisms to someone will voluntarily drink a little more to minimize their dehydration. So if it's intense exercise in the heat, it's going to be a few hours practice. It's a soldier labor or an athlete. I do encourage some people to have some sodium in the beverage and to get some calories in the beverage. Excellent. But I get that all the time. So it's great hearing it right from you. Anything else you wanted to to bring forward before we wrap up? No, I think it's been great. I really appreciate this opportunity to get to another audience. Thank you so much. Where can people online find out more about the work you're doing there at KFC? Yeah, it's simple. KFC, dot, UConn, dot, edu. They're UConn's Yuko and wonderful. Dr. Casa, thank you so much for joining us. Hope everybody stays safe. And remember, it's not just a little bit hot. It can be dangerous this time of year. All right. Thank you. No, guys, it's for me, it's really amazing to see how things have changed regarding heat and football and practices. You know, since the time I was in high school back in the eighties, showing my age and how things are handled now, especially as unfortunately, we do see the weather tending to turn a little bit hotter. August has always been hot for sure, but man, we're not seeing that the two days as much. We're not seeing full pads as much anymore because, yeah, it's you don't want to think about especially kids going out there and truly suffering or worse, dying from something that's very easily preventable. So very glad to have had Douglas on for today. Yeah, totally. You know, we did get to talk a lot about that wet bowl globe temperature, you know, and just how important it is for so many in sports and even in the military. I like how he brought that up, too. You know, at a certain time, military stops exercises as well, depending on the sunlight, you know, how strong the sun is, the dew point, temperatures, etc.. So, yeah, he's definitely done this before. You could tell he's he's very well versed in this and what they let people know. So it was a nice tape podcast. I hope you guys enjoyed it. You know, we try to keep this one short for you, but there's a lot of info in there. But it was a for podcast for us as well. But one thing that stands out to me is how he mentioned the importance of athletic trainers. And I do think they're a very overlooked person on these football teams because they have such an important role trying to look out for the athletes because the coaches are all about winning and the coach knows that he's going to lose his job if he doesn't win games. So he's all about, how can I make these guys better, How can we win games and might in the process of doing that, overlook the safety of the athletes? I mean, we certainly hope not, but we see how quickly a coach can be fired if they have one losing season. Even so, there's a lot of pressure on the coaches just to win. And so you need somebody there is a wait a minute. It's not all about when you need to make sure these guys are safe because this could impact the rest of their life. So I think the importance and one thing that's got a little bit scary is that there are a lot of high schools that still don't have athletic trainers. You only talk about two thirds of high schools, even having athletic trainers. I think there should be a real push to make sure that every school, even the small ones, have somebody who's really looking out for the safety of the athletes. Yeah, And he was able to, I guess, you know, for those who don't have those trainers, you know, to give a little insight on what, you know, you may be experiencing, if you are coming on with some symptoms you may be experiencing, if you are coming on with the heat stroke or heat exhaustion. So good to hear from somebody, you know, right from the source, I would say, because he sure is in the thick of it and he sure does know his stuff. Yeah. And I also like this idea that I become a little bit frustrated with with the heat index and the feels like temperature. And Joanne, with you, if I could just turn the switch and go back in time, I would love to introduce to what Bob Globe. But as you alluded to here in earlier, it's you know, you hear 90 it doesn't sound that bad, but, you know, a 90 wet bulb globe temperature, that's black flag conditions for the military, they're not going to have operations. And the other thing I did not know is that your skin temperature is 93, so that if you're outside and just a regular old temperature is 93, you're going to be taking on heat unless you were sweating like just crazy and losing heat that way. All right. With that, we'll wrap then for for this week in the coming few weeks, we've got some more really good topics. We're going to talk about the infamous bouncy houses and the weather. We're going to talk more about football and fantasy football. We're also going to talk a little bit more about the deep oceans and and the warming waters of the devotions as the climate warms, as we're getting into the into the course of hurricane season. But for all of my meteorology colleagues from across the sky, Kirsten Lange and Tulsa, Matt Holiner in Chicago and Joe Martucci at the New Jersey Shore, I'm meteorologist Sean Sublette at the Richmond Times Dispatch. We'll talk with you next week.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Heat this summer has not been normal for most of the world. Globally, July 2023 was the hottest month on record, mainly because the oceans are at record-high temperatures. This week the team talked with climate scientist Zeke Hausfather about the short term and long term reasons why. They also discuss how we get the ocean data, whether that be from satellites, remote controlled ocean floats, and in some cases — seals. Yes, seals. We want to hear from you! Have a question for the meteorologists? Call 609-272-7099 and leave a message. You might hear your question and get an answer on a future episode! You can also email questions or comments to podcasts@lee.net. About the Across the Sky podcast The weekly weather podcast is hosted on a rotation by the Lee Weather team: Matt Holiner of Lee Enterprises' Midwest group in Chicago, Kirsten Lang of the Tulsa World in Oklahoma, Joe Martucci of the Press of Atlantic City, N.J., and Sean Sublette of the Richmond Times-Dispatch in Virginia. Episode transcript Note: The following transcript was created by Adobe Premiere and may contain misspellings and other inaccuracies as it was generated automatically: Hello everyone. I'm meteorologist Sean Sublette and welcome to Across the Sky our national Lee Enterprises weather podcast. Lee Enterprises has print and digital news operations in more than 70 locations across the country, including at my home base in Richmond, Virginia. I'm joined by my meteorologist colleague Matt Holiner in Chicago. My pals Kirsten Lang and Joe Martucci out of the office today. Our guest this week is Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist. Very deep into the data, has a wealth of information about how much warming is taking place globally. And we really wanted to pick his brain about what's going on in the oceans this year in particular. There has been so much buzz, Matt, about how hot the oceans are right now. So we wanted to kind of get into some of the reasons for that. Yeah, that's the headline I think grabbed people's attention. Of course, you know, as soon as there was those 100 degree temperature readings off the coast of Florida, then immediately all the headlines were Hot Tub water and everybody knows what a hot tub feels like. It's like, yeah, I don't think the ocean should just be naturally that hot if it's, you know, not being artificially heated. But I mean, it is just getting warmer. But I also think that sometimes, you know, and that's the challenge, you know, where there's, you know, still doubt, unfortunately, that comes up with climate change because then certain things get exaggerated because there is something because they're also following that. Lots of headlines about the thermal hailing circulation shutting down. And what I liked in our discussion coming up with Zeke was he really dived into that and explained how likely it is and what's really going to happen, because immediately all the means of the day after tomorrow came and it's like, oh, the ocean current shuts down. It's going to be a global ice age, you know? Whoa, whoa, whoa. Let's talk about what's really going to happen, how likely the circulation shutting down really is. That was just one of the things that we discuss about with them. But it's always good to come back to the experts that really know what's going on rather than just people just throwing stuff out there on social media because there's a there's still a lot of bad stuff on social media. Yeah. And he talked about, you know, if you've never heard of the thermo heal hailing circular ocean, sometimes it's called the MOOC. It has a lot of different nicknames, but he talks about what that is why it's important. He also addressed that 101 degree water temperature, some some things that are going on with that. And we just talked about where we're climate changes now and how much more warming we should expect. So lots to get to with our conversation with Dr. Zeke Zeke Hausfather, let's go right to it. Dr. Zeke Hausfather father is the climate research lead for STRIVE and a research scientist with Berkeley. Earth is a climate scientist and IPCC author whose research focuses on observational temperature records, climate models, carbon renew, removal and mitigation technologies. Zeke also serves as science science contributor to Carbon Brief and was previously the director of climate and energy at the Breakthrough Institute, the lead data scientist at SS, the Chief Scientist at Sea 3ai and Co-Founder and Chief Scientist of Efficiency 2.0. And on top of all that, in his spare time, whatever spare time he has, he runs a very excellent substack with Andrew Dessler over at Texas A&M called the Climate Brink. So we are just pleased as punch as Mama used to say, to have Zeke Harris father with us on Across the sky. Thanks so much for joining us. Noah is excited to be here. All right. So let's jump right into the whole oceans thing. This has been on top of everybody's climate weather minds for several weeks now about how warm the oceans have been this year with regard to the longer term record. So before we get into the specifics about why they're so warm this year, talk a little bit about, I guess, the metadata, the data sets that we are using and why we are so confident about making such a statement about the oceans being as warm as they are right now. Sure. So we've collected ocean data for a long time. It was, in fact back in the 1840, as there is an international convention to standardize the collection of temperature data from ships, in part to better understand shipping routes, weather conditions to make ship journeys more predictable. In fact, the reason we start global temperature records like those we produce at Berkeley Earth or NOAA's or the UK Met Office record in 1850 is because that's when we start getting enough ocean data to at least, you know, with reasonable errors, estimate global temperatures. So in the early days we used to measure ocean temperatures by throwing wooden buckets over the sides of ships, pulling them up, sticking a thermometer in and writing it down in the captain's logbook. Funny story that actually had some biases because as you're pulling a bucket up the side of a ship, it evaporates. Some of the water evaporates off the top and that cools the remaining water in the bucket. And so you actually get slightly cooler temperatures with buckets around World War Two. We switched primarily to ship engine room and take ballast where the water goes through the whole of the ship to cool the engine. You know, these are steamships or, you know, more modern diesel ships. And it turns out engine rooms are a little warmer. So you have some biases there and translating from buckets to ship endurance. And then starting around 1980, we really transitioned in large part to automated systems that, you know, there's thousands of them. They float around the ocean, they send data up to satellites. And in more recent years since the nineties, we have satellite radio monitors that can measure the ocean skin temperature directly. And it turns out that all these different sets of instruments largely agree with each other. You know, you have to correct the biases when you switch from one to the other, of course. But if you do that, you get a pretty good consistent, high quality record of ocean temperatures since at least 1850. And certainly, you know, we have incredibly good records, you know, for the last few decades when we have satellites and buoys and ships and these awesome robots called Argo floats that float around the ocean and dive down to 2000 meters and sample all the ocean heat content and other variables on their way up. So we're really in the golden age of climate data, particularly when it comes to the ocean today. Real quick, before we talk a little bit more about this year, just for my own thing, in my own mind, I know the Argo floats have become very popular recently. Off the top of your head, an approximation, the you know, to a first order of magnitude about how many of these Argo floats are kind of out there right now. The latest number I heard and it's a couple of years old at this point, but it's about 3500 Argo floats and they're pretty well distributed around the ocean. There's a few areas they don't get, so they're not great at going under sea ice. In fact, scientists have figured out a pretty cool hack for that. And they actually put thermometers on the top of SEAL's heads like wild animals. And they dive under the sea ice to get temperatures there. The Argo plates can't go easily. Wait, wait, wait. They put a thermometer on top of the head of a seal. Yep. A couple hundred seals have thermometers on their heads and they're taking measurements. They're very small there. I'm guessing this is a very tiny electro radio transmitter is not something like that. Yeah, it's a liquid and glass thermometer sticking on there, Ed? No, no. There's a like a little transmitter on the SEALs head that's, you know, pretty small and unobtrusive, but takes measurements when the seals under the ice and then sends it off to a satellite when they get back to the surface and they track the seals and, you know, take it off their head after, you know, a year or so and then, you know, rotate new seals into the the seal temperature monitoring core. So that's one area that scientists had to fill in the gaps a little bit. The other is the deep ocean. So our current Argo network mostly goes down to about 2000 meters or, you know, 6000 feet or so below that. We haven't had as many measuring systems historically. But there's a new deep Argo program that's trying to fill in some of those gaps. That's amazing. Matt, you want to jump in with anything? Yeah, I'm still wrapping my mind around seals taking temperature readings for us. That is, if you Google it, there's some very, very adorable pictures of seals with little instruments on their heads. I'm sure. I'm sure. You know, my my question is, you know, as far as the coverage goes and I mean, we're talking about, you know, it seems like in many locations, you know, sea surface temperatures on the rise. I mean, a combination of El Nino and but also in the Atlantic, seeing the sea surface temperatures on the rise. But I'm trying to kind of get into more of the details about instead of just saying sea surface temperatures are on rise everywhere, are there certain locations where we're really seeing a particular rise more so than other parts of the planet? Yeah. So historically, you know, over long term changes, you know, some parts of the ocean warming slightly slower than others, like southern oceans. Ocean is always a bit wonky because it has, you know, a lot of overturning circulation and a lot of deep mixing. There's a weird cold patch off the southeast of Greenland that may be related to a slowdown in the thermal handling circulation, though there's a lot of debate around that. But historically, the oceans have generally warmed at similar rates. This year, though, we've seen this really crazy warmth in the North Atlantic that is far beyond, you know, the level of warming we're seeing in other ocean basins. And so that's that's been really remarkable. And a lot of people have, you know, focused on that as a, you know, very unusual thing and tried to look at different potential explanations for it. And I kind of want to follow up with that thermo hayling circulation, because immediately when you talk about that, I think of the movie the Day After Tomorrow and how the ocean currents shut down and then suddenly there is this mass blizzard. We went into an ice age. So can you talk about the likelihood of this ocean currents shutting down and what would actually happen if it did happen? And is it going to be at the scale of the day after tomorrow? Sure. So let's start with the likelihood and then we can talk about the day after tomorrow. So scientists have historically thought the likelihood of a shutdown this century is quite low. You know, most of our climate models show it slowing down, in part as you have a lot of freshwater runoff from Greenland. So to back up a little bit the way the thermal handling circulation fundamentally works is that as water is traveling north in wind driven currents in the Atlantic, more and more of the water at the surface evaporates, which means that what's left over gets more and more salty because the salt stays when the water evaporates. And as it gets salty enough, it gets denser. And once it gets dense enough, it starts to sink. And so that drives one of the big ocean circulations is the sinking of saltier water in the North Atlantic. But it turns out if you start melting Greenland really quickly, you dump much of freshwater into the North Atlantic and that can make it less salty, which then makes it not sink, which then can slow down and eventually shut down the circulation. So climate models historically have not expected a shutdown this century, though they had expected to slow down in the last few years. There's been a couple more speculative papers suggesting that the models might be missing some things and that, you know, the possibility of a shutdown this century is is higher than previously anticipated. That said, this is still a very much on the bleeding edge of science. So I don't think any of us can say with confidence what's likely to happen this century. We just can't rule out a shutdown. Now, if a shutdown were to occur, it's important to emphasize this doesn't mean the Gulf Stream is shutting down. The Gulf Stream is driven by the rotation of the Earth and winds. It's not going anywhere, but the thermal healing is still very important for heat transfer, particularly to northern Europe. And so if we were to see a shutdown, we would see temperatures drop, you know, over, you know, coastal northern Europe, probably by, you know, three or four degrees centigrade on average. Some parts around Iceland, you know, you might even get to like eight degrees C drop compared to current temperatures. Not quite day after tomorrow levels, you know, we're not going to see the oceans freeze or, you know, New York become a a winter permanent winter arctic. You know, we're really talking more about the European side of of the North Atlantic, where the biggest effects could be felt. And over the long term, you know, the effects of warming for most countries in Europe would outweigh the cooling issues associated with the shutdown. It still be bad. You know what affect rainfall patterns a bunch in problematic ways. You know, it would mean it was a lot cooler, particularly in places like the UK. It wouldn't be a good outcome, but at this point, you know, we're still very much digging through the data and modeling and and trying to get a clearer picture of what exactly is happening with it and what is likely to happen as Greenland melt picks up. Yeah, I know there was a lot of buzz about this in the last couple of weeks with that I think was a nature communications paper that came out to kind of reignite that conversation back to the to the North Atlantic and the overall global oceans. Well, obviously, climate change is a big issue, which kind of the overall background driver. But talk a little bit about a couple of these other things that have kind of bubbled ahead or forward. On top of that, you know, obviously El Nino is going on, but there are there's discussions about an underwater volcano in the South Pacific, how fuels and shipping lanes in the North Atlantic might have changed. Could you just talk a little bit about those other kind of mitigating factors and what how much they may or may not be playing a role? So let's start with the volcano and then talk a bit about sulfur. So there was a very large eruption in Tonga in 2022 of of an underwater volcano. And it affected the climate not by providing key to the oceans because the amount of heat provided by volcanoes, the oceans is actually pretty negligible on a global scale compared to the amount of heat that's being trapped by greenhouse gases. But what this volcano did that was really weird compared to most volcanoes we see is it shot an incredible amount of water vapor, incredibly high into the atmosphere. It put about 150 million metric tons of water into the stratosphere, which is a part of the atmosphere that doesn't have much water vapor in it usually. And that matters a lot to the climate because water vapor itself is a strong greenhouse gas, But because water vapor, you know, rains out, if you get too much in the atmosphere, it it doesn't last for long. So it can't really accumulate. But the stratosphere is a little different because there's so little water vapor up there. If you put water vapor up there, it doesn't rain out. And it can stay in the stratosphere for a lot longer than you'd have water stay in the lower part of the atmosphere. It takes a couple of years to clear out, you know, water vapor and into the stratosphere. And so while most volcanoes actually cool the planet by putting sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere, if they're really big volcanoes, this one unusually actually likely warmed the planet by putting a lot more water vapor in than it put in CO2. Now, there's been a couple of papers on this that estimated that globally, the magnitude, the effect is probably somewhere in the range of 0.15 Watch per meter squared. That's a very wonky number. We used to estimate the amount of energy trapped in their system, but to convert them to numbers, people might understand, You know, we're probably talking about somewhere in the range of, you know, five hundredths of a degree centigrade of warming associated this volcano. So 0.05 C, which is not nothing but is not nearly as big as the, you know, excursions and temperature we're seeing globally. Is there a limit to these temperatures? Is there a threshold like, you know, is there a certain level where the oceans can't get any warmer or are we going to continue to just sled? You know, now an X is going to be 101, 102. I mean, is there a threshold about a limit to where we're going to go and just kind of talk about how exceptional that 100 degree temperature really is? Yeah. So I think the provisional record was actually 101. Now, granted, it was in an area of very shallow water with a lot of like biomass in the water that can absorb sunlight. So those areas do get in the high nineties pretty frequently. But this was very, very high. And we've seen, you know, high 90 degree temperatures around the Florida Keys a lot this year. So I think that's, you know, another sign of this exceptional thing that's happening in the North Atlantic in terms of temperatures as far as like how hot it can get, you know, there's not a functional limit that says like when the oceans reach, I don't know, 102 degrees, they don't increase anymore. But what you do have is this sort of relationship where the hotter a surface is, the more heat it radiates. And it actually radiates heat at the fourth power of temperature to get a little wonky. So you have this Stefan Boltzmann equation at work. And so what that means is that the hotter it gets, the more heat it's getting up to the atmosphere, the harder it is to warm up further because it's giving off more and more heat as it gets hotter. And so that there ends up being a bit of a negative feedback, as we call it, a countervailing factor of it's just hard to get things that are already hot, hotter compared to getting up cool things. And so that does help provide a bit of a limitation to how hot it can get. I guess on some point it it's a limit of diminishing return once you gets to a certain temperature profile, I'm assuming. Yep. All right. Good deal. It's one of the reasons why climate change doesn't run away as easily on Earth, which is a good thing. Yes, we like to tell people the planet's not going to turn into Venus any time soon. We got to take a quick break. We'll have more with Zeke House father when we come back on the Across the Sky podcast. And we're back with Zeke House Father, a climate scientist with numerous organizations. There's a lot of work. Also has a wonderful substack for for folks who aren't very deep into climate science. He runs out with Andrew Dessler over at Texas A&M called the Climate Brink. I want to go back to the the current state of the oceans. We talked a little bit about the underwater volcano in the South Pacific, but there's been a lot of buzz on how fuels used in shipping. Traffic in the North Atlantic may have played a role. Can you talk a little bit more about that? Sure. So when we think about climate change happening more broadly on Earth, you know, we know that the greenhouse gases we're putting in the atmosphere are warming the planet, but it's not the only thing that humans but the atmosphere. We also put a lot of sulfur dioxide into the atmosphere. You know, it comes as a byproduct of burning fossil fuels, primarily in sulfur dioxide, it turns out, is actually a strong cooling effect on the climate. And that's through two different mechanisms. The first is what we call the direct effect, which is that it's very like sulfur dioxide particles are very reflective. So some sunlight hits those particles in the atmosphere. It bounces back up to space and it just dims the sun essentially at the surface. You know, some people call it global dimming and in areas that are very polluted because of that. The second is the indirect effect where sulfur dioxide particles and aerosols in the atmosphere can serve as cloud condensation nuclei and so can increase the amount of cloudiness in regions where you have a lot of CO2. And you see this, you know, in contrails from planes and ship tracks, from ships that are going over the ocean where you see like clouds forming in the wake of the ship because of all the CO2 that's coming out of that stack. And it turns out those sort of clouds are good at reflecting sunlight and cooling the surface. So historically, we've used pretty dirty fuel for ships. You know, it's sort of the fuel that's leftover from oil distillation that's too dirty to burn on land because it would tell us how old are clean air rules. We actually call it bunker fuel. So it's very like tarry goopy stuff that's leftover at the bottom of the stack after oil distillation, and it turns out is a very high sale for content. And the reason ships are allowed to burn it is because they're mostly far from shore. And, you know, you have less air pollution concerns in the middle of the Atlantic or middle of the Pacific. But unfortunately ships are still using it near port. And a bunch of studies in recent years have found that it has some pretty nasty health impacts on people who live near shore. There's one study estimated that something like 60,000 people worldwide die prematurely a year because of ship based sulfur pollution. And so because of that, there's been a big push over the last decade to try to phase out sulfur in marine fuels to reduce the harmful human health impacts of burning it. But about 10% of all global sulfur emissions come from ships. And in the year 2020, the International Maritime Organization put in a new set of rules, essentially reducing the amount of sulfur that ships could emit by 90%. So if you think about 10% of all of our sulfur emissions globally coming from ships, we reduce that 90%. You get, you know, somewhere around a 9% reduction in all global aerosol CO2 emissions, sulfur dioxide emissions. And that's a pretty big deal. You know, in the recent IPCC report, our best estimate was that, you know, aerosols cooled the planet by about half a degree. C And so if you have a 9% reduction in one year going forward and all of aerosol emissions, you know, 9% of half a degree, C is still a pretty big number. You know, it's like .05 C And so there is likely roughly that level of additional warming globally from reducing these aerosol emissions. But the thing is, these ships are not emitting globally. They're emitting in particular regions, particularly the North Atlantic, in the North Pacific. And so in those regions we expect a much bigger climate effect from removing these aerosols, reducing the amount of ship tracks and cloudiness in those shipping corridors. So my colleague at Berkeley Earth, Robert Rohde, he did an analysis where he looked at essentially what's the difference between the temperatures we're seeing over the shipping tracks after the year 2021, the face of this fuel and the other parts of the ocean. And he found that after 2020, those regions warmed about 0.2 see more than the rest of the global ocean. And so we can say, you know, the sort of shipping track regions in the North Atlantic, North Pacific are probably had at least 2/10 of a degree warming in the last few years because we phased out this low sulfur or sorry, we based off the high sulfur fuel required muscle fuel. All right. So I'm going to turn this over to Matt before I do, I have two quick follow ups. One is for my own mind, when we think about CO2 being kind of reflective, are we are you saying the CO2 molecule or as as an aerosol with other impurities and too, what is the the the general lifetime of CO2 and those aerosols in the atmosphere before they finally settle out? The reflectivity is primarily the sulfur molecule itself, but it is in an aerosolized form when it's sort of moving around the lower atmosphere, the troposphere, the lifetimes are generally talking about on the order of weeks. You know, it falls up pretty quickly in the troposphere. If you were to put it in the stratosphere, as we see with like large volcanic eruptions like Mount Pinatubo, there you have the resonance time in the short years. You know, most probably about half of it falls out in the first year. But there's a bit of a tail before it all falls out of the stratosphere. That's why, you know, we saw something like half a degree C cooling globally the year after Mount Pinatubo erupted. It's because it put so much CO2 up into the stratosphere and that hung around for, you know, couple of years after that, suppressing temperatures. And while we're looking at these other issues that are that are playing into this, you know, another story and that's what I want to kind of focus on. It is a completely separate story, is it's tied together is the plastic pollution problem in the oceans. We keep hearing about the increasing amount of plastic in the oceans. And of course, there's lots of negatives associated with that. But I wonder if there's been any research at all. Is the plastic, the amount of plastic in the ocean having an impact on the sea surface temperatures, whether lowering them or raising them, or does it seem to not have an impact and it's just a separate environmental issue? It's a great question. You know, I haven't seen any research on no beetle effects of plastic. I think that even places like the Great Pacific Garbage Patch, which is a very evocative name, you know, it's not that dense. It's not like if you're going in a boat through there, it's just the surface of the ocean is covered with plastic. It's like there's pieces here and there. So I'm sure it has an effect because seawater is dark and absorbs sunlight. Plastic is generally not as dark as seawater and reflects sunlight. You know, there probably is on the margins, a cooling effect, but I suspect it's not particularly strong. But it is a big issue, obviously, for for wildlife. And I'm sure a lot of your listeners have seen, you know, David Attenborough's documentaries of like seabirds and remote islands with plastic in their bellies. And you know, these tragic pictures of, Yeah, let's think forward a little bit. We have made globally some progress in terms of of emissions at least regarding coal. Coal is in decline, at least in a lot of places. My understanding is that China is throwing everything out there, solar and coal and everything. But the demand for coal isn't as high as it used to be. Having said that, we still are burning a lot of fossil fuels that aren't necessarily coal. So some of the worst case scenarios we imagined 15, 20 years ago don't appear like they're going to be coming to fruition. It doesn't mean it's not going to be bad. But when we look at where policies have kind of evolved to now, how much warming you know, now in the pipeline should we kind of expect in the coming several decades? And that's a broad question, but let's just just kind of attack where we've come, how far we've come in the last ten or 20 years and and how that might translate forward. Yeah. So so a decade ago, things looked really dire for the Earth's climate in terms of where we were heading. You know, global coal use had doubled over the course of a decade. China was building a new coal plant just like every three days. And the idea that the 21st century could be dominated by coal, where we'd, you know, double or triple our emissions by 2100 didn't seem that far fetched. You know, today we're in a very different world. Thankfully, you know, clean energy has gotten cheap, but most of the new energy being built worldwide is renewables today, or at least clean energy. That's it's low carbon. And, you know, global coal use has pretty much flatlined since 2013 or so, which also means that global emissions of CO2 have more or less flatlined over the last decade. The problem is that when I say emissions of flatland, it sort of makes you think, oh, that means global warming is stopped too, Right? But it doesn't quite work that way. The world is going to keep warming as long as our emissions of CO2 remain above zero. That's really the brutal math of climate change, is that it's not enough just to stop emissions from increasing. You actually have to get them all all the way down to zero to stop warming. If we just line emissions like we are today, what that means is that warming continues at the rate that we've been experiencing for the last decade or 2.2 C per decade or so. And so if you look at a bunch of different assessments of where we're headed today, and it's been done by the International Energy Agency and the United Nations Governmental Program and groups like, you know, Climate Action Tracker, they all more or less agree that, you know, we're headed for a world of of around three degrees C, maybe slightly below by 2100. That compares to a world of, you know, four or five C that seemed possible a decade ago. And so that does reflect progress. You know, if we've bent the curve downward of future emissions, we've, you know, made some of these really, really catastrophic high end scenarios a little less likely. But a3c world is still a really bad one. I mean, we're experiencing a lot of severe impacts of climate change already in terms of heat waves and wildfires and, you know, extreme precipitation events just at 1.2 degrees today. And so if you, you know, more than double that, it's it's a pretty terrible world for for a lot of people and for a lot of nature to, you know, the natural world is a really tough time adapting to very rapid changes in temperature like we'd see. So three degrees is certainly a lot better than where we're headed, but it's by no means anywhere close to where we want to be. The good news, for me at least, is that the fact that we have started to make some progress means that it's a lot easier to imagine a world where we actually do make more progress. We continue to these positive trends and accelerate, and we actually do manage to limit warming to at least below two degrees by the end of the century. And I think unfortunately, 1.5 degrees is probably in the rearview mirror at this point, unless we, you know, do some crazy scenario where we pass it and then remove, you know, ridiculous amounts of carbon into the atmosphere to bring temperatures back down. But but certainly, I think you could say that limiting warming to two degrees or below two degrees is quite possible from where we are today. It would involve getting all of our emissions of CO2 to zero by, you know, 2070 or so globally, which is a big lift, but it's by no means impossible. And it's good to hear a little bit of good news because it is definitely by far mostly bad news. It comes to climate, but it's good that we're going in the right direction and hopefully the trend will continue. I want to kind of look in the short term, though, you know, we're in this El Nino and that's what's contributing partially to the high sea surface temperature that we're seeing and high global temperatures in general. But looking ahead to 2024 houses, El Nino going to play out. And what impact is it going to have on 2020 for us? Temperatures? Sure. So there is a growing strong El Nino in the tropical tropical Pacific right now that's really developed rapidly in the past few months. What was interesting is that we switched quite quickly from an unusually long La Nina event. We called it a triple dip, Nina, because it's when you sort of started to come out of La Nina conditions and then dipping back in. And that happens, you know, two more times after the initial one. Nina But because we rapidly transitioned from La Nina, conditions down, you know, conditions, you know, it's really added a lot of heat, particularly to the oceans. We expect the current El Nino events to continue and strengthen through the end of the year and, you know, stay fairly strong at least through early to mid 2024. There is some differences in the various modeling groups looking at El Nino, the dynamical models, the more like climate models tend to predict a stronger nino than the statistical models, which are more trying to infer based on you know, the statistics of past El Ninos. What's likely this time around. And that divide is actually kind of remarkable this year compared to the most past years. I, for one, probably would bet on the dynamical models because they think they capture more of the underlying processes like statistics only bring you so far. But in terms of the effects of the El Nino, you know, it's going to bump up global temperatures as well as sea surface temperatures for the remainder of 2023. You know, it means that this year is now the odds on favorite to be the warmest year since records began, since 1850. But it's really going to have a big effect next year. And so for 2024, it's likely to be even warmer than 2023 for the year as a whole. And we've seen historically that there tends to be a bit of a lag between when El Nino conditions peak in the tropical Pacific and when the global temperature response to that El Nino event peaks. And that lag is about three months. So three months or so after you hit peak El Nino conditions, then you have the peak surface temperature response globally across the land and the oceans. And that's been a pretty consistent relationship for the past, you know, 80 years or so at least. So if that holds this time around, you know, and the El Nino peaks in the near the end of 2023, we expect sort of the biggest push to be on early 2020 for temperatures. So what we'd probably be looking at is a particularly warmer end of winter and into the spring months. So I guess, you know, the groundhog would be predicting an early spring might be what we're seeing in a lot of places would be kind of an idea if this El Nino plays out as it's expected to. Yeah, that's globally like, oh, Nino has very specific patterns of heat and cool associated with it that may affect different regions differently. So you can't necessarily say like every part of the planet is going to be warmer because of the El Nino. It really ends up depending a bit. Like in California, we tend to get a slightly cooler and Rainier weather with an El Nino years, for example. So the overall pattern of what the impacts that El Nino bring is going to be overriding. But looking at the big picture, that's probably when temperatures are going to peak would be late winter, early spring. Yeah. All right. Let's go back south again. I was looking at a plot today, I think you actually shared about the Antarctic Sea ice and how it is way below the last 45 years of records. Is there anything that we should take away from that? I mean, it's kind of a frightening plot or is it just one of those things like we really don't understand the Antarctic ice surrounding the continent as well? It's a signal, but we we really shouldn't panic about it. I mean, what is your take when you see that that kind of graphic of what's going on in the sea ice around Antarctica? So it's it's definitely disconcerting. Like we've never seen anything like this in the historical record for Antarctic ice. At the same time, Antarctic sea ice has always been a lot more complex, heated and unpredictable than Arctic sea ice. The Antarctic sea ice. If you look at the data since 1979, which is when we first got good satellite coverage to get high quality Arctic wide records, it's pretty much been going down consistently. Like some years are higher, some years are lower, but there's a very clear linear downward trend as the Arctic warms Antarctica at least through 2020 or so, was bucking that sea ice was increasing overall in Antarctica between 1979 and 2020. And there was a lot of work among scientists to explain why that was. You know, part of it has to do with prevailing wind patterns, part of S2 actually, with the hole in the ozone layer over Antarctica, which has a cooling impact for the region. And so, you know, it was always sort of a much bigger question mark of the climate impacts on Arctic sea ice compared to the Arctic words. It's much more straightforward. And so then we get to the last three years where that slight upward trend in sea ice, Antarctica suddenly reversed. You know, it went down, you know, pretty far in 2021 and 2022 and then 2023 hit. And we really have been at unprecedented lows for the entire year, particularly now, when sea ice should be growing rapidly. And it really isn't. And so there just needs to be a lot more work by scientists to untangle, you know, what are the drivers of this? You know, is it unusual warmth in Antarctica? Is it warm sea surface temperatures? Are air temperature is is it changing wind patterns that might be breaking up sea ice in ways that we haven't seen before? Like part of the problem is we only have a record going back to 1979 for this region. And so it may well be that there's some modes of variability that could lead to big shake ups in Antarctic sea ice that might have happened before, but just hasn't happened since 1979. So, you know, I don't think we can rule out that it's primarily caused by human activity. And certainly we expect long term as the Antarctic region warms to sea less sea ice there. But this is so far below what we'd expect to that. I think, you know, we need to take a close look at it and figure out all the different potential causes. And before we wrap up, every time we get someone on, you know, talking about climate change and what we're seeing out there and all the various issues, I think when it always comes back to is, you know, people read all these articles and it's all doom and gloom, but then it's like, well, what what can I do? What what can I do to make it better? I think when it comes to the oceans, this is a particularly unique because we don't live in the oceans, we're on land. And so people kind of see the impacts of what's happening on land and where. So I think so many of us are ignorant about what's going on in the ocean. So if you're if someone's listening to this and is alarmed and wants to make an impact and wants to again look at the whole issue, but let's just look at the oceans itself and what are things that individuals do if they want to see these sea surface temperatures not be as extreme? What are some things that are some proactive things that are people just reading this and saying, well, what do I do? What is your answer for when somebody asked that question? So I think one of the and it's fun, funny to use the word comforting in this environment given everything happening. But one of the more comforting findings out of the recent IPCC report was that if we can get emissions all the way down to zero, warming will stop. There's not a huge amount of warming in the pipeline that is inevitable, which means that ultimately, like humans are at the drivers wheel here, you know, are in the driver's seat. We get to determine based on how much fossil fuels we burn over the next century, exactly how warm it gets. You know, we're sort of stuck with what we have today regardless. But we can determine, you know, if it just gets a bit worse or if it gets catastrophically worse. And that's mostly on us in terms of how quickly we reduce our emissions of CO2 from burning fossil fuels and how quickly we switch switch to the clean energy alternatives. So as an individual you know, obviously it's a huge problem that requires collective action globally. But at the same time, you know, you can do a lot by supporting clean energy technologies because the more people who buy things like heat pumps or electric cars or put solar panels on the roof, the more the price of those technologies go goes down and the more other people can afford to adopt them and know we've really seen that with electric vehicles, which ten years ago were incredibly expensive and today are actually cheaper to own than a gas vehicle over the lifetime. You know, similarly, solar panels were nine times more expensive a decade ago than they are today. And a big part of what's driven those cost declines is just economies of scale, more and more being built, people learning how to build them more cheaply. You know, it's not fundamental breakthroughs in the physics. It's learning by doing. And so individuals making decisions to, you know, you know, pay a small premium to get clean energy in their personal lives. But hip hop and electric vehicle solar panel, you know, is an important way to to make it easier for other people who might not be as motivated to be able to adopt those or just make it the default because it's the cheapest thing for people to do. I think the other thing I'd say is that at the end of the day, individuals voluntarily taking action can only take us so far. You know, we need a stronger policy response by governments to make clean energy cheap and to hold polluters to account. And so I think, you know, at the end of the day, one of the most impactful things you can do on this issue is vote. Tell politicians what you think because they're going to have to help us address this. So I think you you hit the nail on the proverbial head. There is nobody can fix this all by themselves. But collectively, we can we can make a lot of progress. And there's a lot of good reasons to be optimistic. Before we let you go, in addition to people reading your stuff on Carbon brief and and the Substack, where else can people find your work if you know they're not true wonks or they're not policy wonks or they're not deep into the science, where else can people find what you have to say? Yeah, so you can you can always follow me on Twitter or whatever it's called this week, right? Or on Threads, which is the new matter owned Twitter competitor. You know, if you can also just read the coverage of climate that's going on in places like The New York Times, The Washington Post or the BBC, it's it's all quality. And, you know, they they talk to me occasionally and a bunch of other climate scientists, period of of mine who also a great insights in the stuff. So it's a you know it's hard to find good discussions of climate on TV these days. But you know if you turn to the news, you know it's it's dominates the headlines and a lot of it is really well written and really good. Yeah. One of the things that we've seen in polling is that people trust climate scientists, not so much people on TV. So that's why I always try to refer people directly to you, to Andrew, to Katherine, and have those kinds of folks ask again. Thanks so much for joining us. We appreciate it. And we hope that we get a chance to talk to you again soon. Definitely. It's great to chat. That is so much good information, Matt. I mean, every time I talk to see I've talked to him two or three times before this and I've been following him on Twitter and you heard me just kind of going on and on about the subject. But he has so much good actionable information. He's able to put so many myths to rest very quickly. And I could just talk to him all day long. But a lot of a lot of wonderful information about where we've come and where we're going. And he's got the data to back it up. Yeah, it really is a fascinating discussion because we re so, so much of the focus is on land and what people are experiencing. But the majority of the planet, 70% of the planet is the oceans, and they're absorbing a lot of heat and they're getting warmer as well. And when you're calculating these global temperatures, we talk about, you know, this is the warmest year on record, which 2023 seems to be on track to do. So it's not just all the thermometers on land that we're calculating, that we're using all of these booties to measure the temperature of the oceans. And that has a big impact. And that's why the fact that we're having an El Nino, it's an El Nino year when I mean, already we're talking about sea surface temperatures getting warmer and warmer. But during El Nino, they get even warmer than normal. And so that's what's going to contribute to seeing the high 2023 is going to be so warm. And then it was also interesting how we're kind of teasing ahead to 2024. There's potential for 2024 to be even warmer because we're especially going to start 2024. It seems so warm. And how even if El Nino starts to wind down the lag in the global temperatures because it has a global impact, will continue. So that's going to be something to watch. You know, it was it was disheartening to hear that about getting even warmer. No, but at the same time, I did like the where he did bring back, you know, it's good to find the positives where we can where we're at where it looks like though, his most dire predictions for what could happen not to play it down and so not to let people's guard down because he has emphasized, you know, three degrees of warming would still be really bad. But if we're going in the right direction, maybe avoiding that four or five degrees of warming by 2100, at least, that's progress. So let's not let our foot off the pedal. Let's let's keep working. Let's see if we can bring that trend out. How about two degrees instead of three degrees? I mean, the more we can do, you know, it's good to get some good news. But remember that three degrees is bad because we're already seeing, what, less than one and a half degrees is doing it. It's not good. Yeah. And that's three C, which is five and a half Fahrenheit. So we need to remember that sometimes we are deep into the science that we we kind of fall into the metric, the metric system, which is great. I love the metric system as a scientist, but a lot of people aren't as familiar with that. So yeah, three C that's about five and a half degrees Fahrenheit. And I was also very grateful that he went back and talked about how we know what the oceans were 150, 175 years in the past when we had some ocean temperature records directly. But now we get so much of it from satellites and these cool Argo floats spend a little time in Google, Argo floats because they're really, really cool pieces of equipment. Help us see what's going on into the oceans. Matt. You know, next week we've got, you know, football seasons coming. So let's go back on land. Right? But we're into August now and football practices are full tilt at this point, getting ready for four opening opening day in a few weeks and it's still hot. So we're going to talk to two Douglas Cossa at the Korey Stringer Institute up there at University of Connecticut and talk about the impact of heat on on football players. It can be a very sneaky killer, unfortunately. So we're going to talk to him about that and some of the best practices to keep our players safe so we can enjoy what they do a later on in the fall. Anything else? But before we take off, then I'll also be interested the impact of folks on the stands, because I've been at some awfully hot, late August, early September games in Texas. And, you know, especially if it's a middle of the day game, I mean, the crowd is in bags. Well, of course, the players absolutely the most, but the crowd as well. So that'll be an interesting discussion. And then also, you know, we're going to promote it again, if you ever have any questions for us, weather questions, things you'd like to hear us discuss, ideas for the podcast, shoot us an email podcast at Leeds dot net or begin to comment on the show we love to hear. All right, that all sounds good. I with that we are going to wrap for this week. So for Matt Holiner in Chicago, I'm meteorologist Sean Sublette in Richmond, Virginia at Lee Enterprises, thanks so much for listening. And we will talk with you again next week.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It has been a hot summer and there's a good chance you might be taking a trip to the beach, whether that's the ocean, one of the Great Lakes, or a smaller body of water. So we've brought in ocean and coastal safety expert Bruckner Chase, who talks about how to stay safe while swimming in waves and water temperatures where hypothermia could become a concern — and it's not as cold as you might think. Chase works with lifeguards, government agencies, and organizations from all across the globe. He is the host of NOAA's Wave Safe video series and has been featured on the Weather Channel many times. We want to hear from you! Have a question for the meteorologists? Call 609-272-7099 and leave a message. You might hear your question and get an answer on a future episode! You can also email questions or comments to podcasts@lee.net. About the Across the Sky podcast The weekly weather podcast is hosted on a rotation by the Lee Weather team: Matt Holiner of Lee Enterprises' Midwest group in Chicago, Kirsten Lang of the Tulsa World in Oklahoma, Joe Martucci of the Press of Atlantic City, N.J., and Sean Sublette of the Richmond Times-Dispatch in Virginia. Episode transcript Note: The following transcript was created by Adobe Premiere and may contain misspellings and other inaccuracies as it was generated automatically: Welcome, everybody to the Across the Sky podcast, our Lee Enterprises National Weather Podcast. I'm meteorologist Joe Martucci based at the Jersey Shore here. Summer, of course, in full swing, although fall is creeping around the corner. But we're talking about wave safety. We have Bruckner Chase. He is a coastal and ocean safety expert. I know him personally. He is fantastic. AC really loves his craft. But let me ask you guys, Sean and Matt, have you guys been to beaches here? You know, I have not been to the beach this year. I think I've told you all I'm saving my pennies and going to Italy in September. So I have not done the beach this year. But nonetheless, I do love the beach. I love the Outer Banks in North Carolina. And I really liked what Bruckner had to say about the differences between some of the hazards on the East Coast versus the West Coast, not having been really spent a lot of time at the West Coast beaches. It's nice to see this this broader, broader scope that he was able to do to bring us in on. And I have not made a beach trip either this summer. Of course, I am in Chicago now. We do have beaches in Chicago. There does lake beaches. And if you've never been on the Great Lakes, never been to Chicago, when you are standing on Lake Michigan, you think you're at the ocean or somebody just dropped you down, Maybe like I'm at the ocean, right on it. No, the lake is just that big. It is the ocean. You get wave action on it. So I have been to a Chicago Lake Beach, but not an ocean beach this summer. I've always been a little bit nervous. I got to be honest about going to the beach. And I feel like oftentimes I think, well, if I just want to swim, I'm just going to get in a pool because there is the uncertainty about the ocean course. There's the everything that gets overblown about sharks, and I'm not worried about that. But there is the unknown about, you know, what is in the water. Are there rip currents out there? What are other things? You know, this is this is the wild. You're not in a controlled situation. You're exposed to the elements and everything that's out in the ocean. So talking about beach safety and the hazards at the beach again most of time is going to be fine. But it is always in the back of your mind, like, I just like one more thing to be concerned about. So I think that's why it was just great to bring him on. A guy, talk about all the different things you do need to keep him out. You can definitely have a great time at the beach, but things to keep in mind to make sure you stay safe. Absolutely. And without further ado, we'll jump into it. Let's talk to Mr. Chase about ocean and water safety. And now we welcome on Bruckner Chase. He is an ocean and coastal safety expert who works with lifeguards, government agencies and organizations from all across the globe. He is the host of NOAA's Wave Safe Video series. He's been featured on the Weather Channel many times. That's how we first got to knowing each other a little bit here. He's also an ocean adventure athlete who has weight for this, swam 25 miles across Monterey Bay, across Lake Tahoe for 22 miles. And maybe the most impressive part has the world record for swimming without a wetsuit in Alaska. Bruckner is also a chief in an American Samoa village. He's from Memphis, Tennessee, and lives in my home state, the great Garden State of New Jersey. Bruckner, thanks for being on the Across the Sky podcast. We appreciate it. It is great to be here. And I would suggest taking a boat across Monterey Bay is probably far easier if you check the weather first than swimming across it. I could imagine. And I do want to get into some of those adventures that you have taken, but I just want to say, you know, I'm glad just personally what we've done over the past couple of weeks with you being so close to being along the Jersey Shore and promoting wave safety here. My first question for you is, you know, I know you're not a meteorologist, but what interest do you have and weather and how did that start? You know, I've got a lot of interest in weather right now and really involved with the American Meteorological Society as well. I've spoken at their last two conferences for broadcasters and communicators. And I think one of the things when I began originally my career with NOAA's started working with Natural Sanctuaries, which oversees the country's marine protected areas, when over the last several years I've been working with National Weather Service on coastal safety and the near-shore environment, as all of you know, is so impacted by weather, whether it's wind gradient portraits and waves and small craft advisories. If you're going to be in on or near the water or on the shore, the weather is really going to impact your experience there. It's going to make it a great day. It's going to make it a safe, Danny, or it can make it a dangerous day. And you need to be aware of all those changing conditions are going to impact where you are and what you're planning on doing. So tell us about the The Waves Safe series that you've been doing. If you're listening through one of our newsroom websites, you can see Bruckner's videos on there. We have them up. But what is waves safe? And tell me about the process of making it because you are talking about the whole country with this, but you're making it a little regionalized, which I think is makes you different here. When I came in with National Weather Service, you know, we had released The Ripcord Survival Guide, which focused on one specific beach hazard, which was rip currents. And we recognized, though, that rip currents were not prevalent in all of the shorelines around the U.S. in U.S. territories. And we also realized that there were a lot of other households that impacted people at the shore, not necessarily fatal impacts, but non-fatal life changing impacts as well. So National Weather Service and I, we got together saying we need to kind of expand the narrative about what people need to look for on the shore. So Wave Safe was meant to take kind of a social science approach added to the oceanographic meteorological approach of what is the science of the shore. And we wanted to take a demographic and geographic specific look at hazards. So I was charged with writing the series and then became the host of the actual video content and had the opportunity to speak to weather forecasting off to those within National Weather Service all over the country. We knew we wanted to target five main areas the East Coast, the Pacific Northwest, Southern California, Hawaii, in in American Samoa. And we wanted to look at the hazards that those forecasting meteorologists needed to communicate to that group specifically in, say, the Pacific Northwest. So here we'll talk a lot about, you know, hurricanes and how they impact the coastal environment. But you sit at Northwest, you had log rolled, you had sneaker waves, you had cold water immersion, you had pocket beaches that were, you know, could become more dangerous as tides changed significantly. So the Wave Safe series was we spent two or three years really looking at what are the hazards in specific areas, how do we communicate those not just so that people would watch the videos, but so how could we convey actions in awareness that would actually help protect individuals and communities? Because it wasn't just about impressions, it was about changing behavior to have a positive impact on fatal and nonfatal incidences out the shore. Yeah. Rutger I think that's real interesting how your really dive in and looking at differences and really across the planet, but just looking at the U.S. as well, because I think it's oftentimes does get oversimplified. And you just talk about beach safety in general, but there actually are regional differences. And I'm curious about that because you talked about the threat of rip currents. Are there certain areas that are more prone to rip currents and where we see more rip currents in other locations? Yes, as you guys know, rip currents are very determined. And now National Weather Service has a forecasting model so they can predict where it's more likely or higher risk for rip currents. It a record is a very localized event, 25, 50 years Y and really depends upon both wave action, idle action and limit what's going on underneath there. And so when you've got sand beaches like you have along much of the East Coast or around the panhandle of Florida or the Gulf Coast, they're going to be more prevalent to high out rip currents kind of forming because of the way that bottom can be shaped. But when you've got really steep drop offs close to shore like you may have in the Pacific Northwest, or you've got a rigid reef bottom that doesn't contour the way our sands do, rip currents may not be as much of a risk. And we often look at our surf Lifesaving Australia, which is kind of the gold standard around the country, or not just protecting the beaches, but really gathering information about beach growing communities and putting that towards actionable stuff that their surf lifesaving clubs can implement to keep people safe and what their research ground and what they push out in their annual reports. Up to 80% all when we start waiting. Answers are not rip currents. It's a lot of the other hazards that happen along the coastline. And I think that and just talking about rip currents are leading me to believe that rip currents are the only dangerous birds we miss the opportunity to protect people, say, in the Pacific Northwest or it might be something very different. Yeah, to that point, we hear about rip currents all the time here and and I have my eastern bias as well with that. But what are some of the other you know, once you go after rip currents, what are some of those other those other risk factors? And obviously they're going to be greater in some locations than others. But what are two or three of these things that do come to mind right after the rip currents? Well, I'll tell you, one of the biggest risk factors, because in looking at risk, you need to look at both the people involved and then the physical element that you're discussing and a risk factor. And one of the things that we're trying to address in this next phase of work with National Weather Service is people that aren't from the shore missing, interpreting their swimming ability with the conditions in front of them too often. And you see this in the early drownings in Panama City, Florida, where you've got people coming from anyone say Memphis, Tennessee. I used to come from coming down to the shore, not understanding that even though they know how to swim in a backyard pool or country club pool, the conditions near shore could be completely different. And often the risk factor that's really high is how do we teach people to understand what a two or three foot wave really means for them, or perhaps their seven or eight year old child? And I think as far as just hazards, which can be dangerous, is breaking waves and understanding that even a 2 to 3 foot wave packs a really strong punch if you're not prepared for it. And often what can happen is if you look at some of the nonfatal and fatal drownings, combinations of wind direction, wind strength, wave direction and wave size, knocking people over what an immediate condition in a near-shore environment. That's not what they expect deeper than they expect. And then realizing that, according to Surf Life Saving in Australia, 48% of people that visited the beach said they could not swim at least 50 meters in the ocean without touching the bottom. So if we talk about surviving a rip current, if you pulled out, if you take numbers like that, where 50% of the people cannot even swim 30 meters in the ocean, then it doesn't take much as far as wave and wing box to really make even swimming out of a rip really dangerous and difficult. So I think that really kind of turbulent, unpredictable conditions in a car or near shore or swagger become as deadly or more so than rip current because they can lead to catastrophic events warming. From there. So frightening. So with all of this, you know, we've said it before, you you want to make this a positive experience when you're talking about wave safety, it's not to scare people. It's to empower people. So in these videos. Right, right, right. That mindset instead says saying, hey, like, don't do this, you know, say in a way that empowers you to, you know, tackle the ocean appropriately. Keep in mind, I started working with Noah, talking about our marine sanctuaries, these amazing, beautiful places that are really kind of the place where we kind of protect our wildlife and our our shore environments, our coastal environments, our coral, our marine heritage. And every one of the Waves Safe series, we wrap it up because we want people to have a lifetime of positive experiences that the shore you know, we live at the shore here and and that's an important part of both our culture, our community and even the economy. And I think that we can make any of these dangerous elements like rips or waves a positive experience. And we focused on three main right wanted people to respect the ocean, which really means kind of respect that it's dynamic and changing and it may be stronger than our swimming ability that we can wear. The second is situational awareness. Be aware that things are always changing tides, currents, weather, wear, whitening. It's always evolving and changing, and often you can keep it positive by recognizing that, hey, it was really glassy and calm this morning. Lunch time you come back, the winds are switched. Now it's a little bit more dangerous. So that positive experience this afternoon, we need to stay on the beach or this is the day to go up to the boardwalk and recognizing those changing conditions can impact how safe things are. And finally, you know, take ten. We want to give people the skill set and take ten is focused on rebounding second victim drownings and getting people the skills that it may wind up in. Almost a loved one who is in trouble when they see someone trouble while we give them the tools so that they can live to be the hero, that they'd all become a tragic second victim. Because again, a lifetime of positive experiences at the shore is our number one goal. And brother, I want to shift gears a little bit, but I kind of want to still, I think, is relevant for people who are not boaters. But I do want to talk about boating a little bit because one of the most common things I see get issued by the National Weather Service are small craft advisories. And often the question I get is what exactly does that mean? What does it take to get a small craft advisory and what do they mean by small craft? So for boaters, but I think there are also just a lot of people that will see that on their boat. A small craft advisory and they're not boating. They just want to go to the beach and swim. But like is there, that's something I should be concerned about, that there's a small craft advisory. Does that impact swimmers as well? Absolutely. I think it's a really important question. And some people we we've talked about that, you know, a weather forecast will kind of tell you what is going to happen across a general area. Often before we head to the beach will shop for small craft advisories, will also look at surf reports and surf reports. Often if you look at somewhere like surf Line, where they drill down and beach specific or small craft advisories, it'll be drilled down to a specific county or area. A swimmer or someone going into the water is pretty much a small craft. You know, there's a a small entity that's in the water. And what delineate it's a small craft advisory or triggers that is really is something that probably is is set by National Weather Service, accepted by the weather forecasting offices and has templates that they follow. And I would encourage everyone to look what up to know what triggers that warning were your area. Well, what it often will mean is turbulent, disorganized conditions near shore, driven by wind and swell, and a combination of how they interact that make it not, you know, hard to navigate or control if you're running a small boating craft, a motorized boat. But imagine if it's hard to control or dangerous for someone in a motorized watercraft. How much worse that could be if you're on a stand up or or on a kayak or your swimming, that impact on you in those situations can be much, much worse. Even if you just look at offshore winds, that often would be a component in a small craft advisory pushing someone further away from the beach into dangerous situations in which they cannot get themselves bound for. All right. Well, we're going to take a brief break. And on the other side, we're going to have more with Proctor Chase. You're listening to the Across the Sky podcast. And we are back with the Across the Sky podcast. New episodes come out every Monday where ever you get your podcast or on your favorite newsroom website. We are back here with Brock near Chase. Well, we were talking a lot about wave safety. He is the host of the Wave Safe Program with Noah here. I want to switch gears a little bit and talk about yourself. BRAWNER Here. So, you know, when I was writing your biography, the first thing I had to ask you about was your swim in Alaska, your record setting, no wetsuit swim first. Why did you want to do that? And then secondly, how do you how cold was the water when you were swimming? So so the well, we'll start with the water Temperature of the water temperature was 54 degrees. Okay. Which I think that time was slightly warmer than the air temperature. So you probably got in. There were snow on the mountains back lined up. I you know, I grew up in Memphis, Tennessee, and got rescued from drowning twice before I was ten. I learned to swim in a country club pool and I I moved to Santa Cruz, California, several years ago, and I guess I just fell in with the wrong crowd. You know, They go, yeah, we're going out to swim in Monterey Bay. And I was like, Wasn't that where all the great white sharks research and they grew? Yeah, yeah. But, you know, we're fine with them. It's, it's a symbiotic relationship. And I'm like, what? You give them your first warning. That's a symbiotic part of it. So I, I started I had been a swimmer in college and found that swimming in cold water in the ocean was something that for some reason I was really a well-adjusted to and had done some some long swims and kind of pushed the envelope a little. But I'd been an endurance athlete on land for four decades, and I heard about a eight and a half mile swim around Pennock Island in Alaska, and I had never been up there before and going up to Alaska to do a swim around the island at the time sounded like a really kind of unique challenge and ended up just fell in love with the place and had one of the best swims I've ever had. My wife was on a kayak supporting me around. We had a orca swim past while we were on the back side of the island and ended up winning the race, beating all the relays and setting a course record that I think still stands today. Incredible. Wow. What kind of background precautions in a situation like that? I mean, I know there's you know, you're not probably tied to a kayak or anything like that, but I mean, are there any kind of background safety things in place and what are they in a situation like that? When I first started working at National Marine Sanctuary, I was working with them as an extreme endurance athlete and swimmer that was doing these kind of unique swims across parts of the sanctuaries. Monterrey Bay is one of the National marine sanctuaries. I did a swim between a couple of islands in American Samoa. I did a swim from the underwater research lab, El Dorado, back to the to the land, the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary. And so, you know, the base in Alaska was a race. So there was protocol and safety boats throughout the course. And there were young and old people. Not a lot of people apparently line up to go and do swims in Alaska. Go figure. But there are people quolls on there on an aquatic estimate. And then most of people don't even they're more remote on of adventure swims. I've done we have a pretty extensive support crew. We've done a lot of our own work. We know the waters. I've done an extensive amount of training to prepare. And then we we talk to a researcher who's in weather and wildlife and water to kind of as best as possible learn what to expect. So, you know, kind of look at the risks of some of these things no one had done before. And we kind of address each of those points and we get to a point where we feel, you know, this is safe and we can do this. And then it's just up to me and my training and the crew to see if we get all the way across. Real quick before I turn this one over to Matt, is there we hear a lot about hypothermia for for people who are boating, especially in the spring. The water's too cold. I'm imagining there's not like a magic number, but is there a range for people who aren't acclimated or where you are? Sure. Like a water temperature that's like, wow, this this is this is legit, too cold. If I fall into this, I'm going to you know, I could go into shock, hypothermia or something like that. Absolutely. In fact, I work with National Weather Service and I would encourage people to go to the cold water safety segment in National Weather Service on on post on beach Hazards. And we have some standards of what to expect. But there are examples of a warm water, hypothermia. Even someone who falls off a boat in Florida in the water, that's 76, 77 degrees, they can eventually become hypothermic. They can lose function or they can, you know, die and drown people that aren't operated. In my estimation, once you get water below 70 degrees or so, it causes a physiological kind of shock to the system. And often in that one minute to minute window where you're trying to get your breathing under control, you kind of been kind of shocked into kind of a frantic respiratory rate. People often get into trouble just with that immediate response and then the hypothermia. You know, they say that you've got a handful of minutes to kind of get your breathing under control. And then with most people through acclimated, you've got maybe 10 to 15 minutes of functional motion control where you could get yourself out of a dangerous situation. Many times, obviously, if you fall through a frozen lake and get really cold water, that's 30 to 33 degrees. The effect is going to be even faster. But even in 55, 58 degree water in the Pacific Northwest, someone who gets knocked off of a say by a wave fall into that water bay, don't have a lot of time, get out of that water and self-rescue before they end up becoming a victim. And that's you know, I spent some time working with the Customer Rescue SA program. And really what they try to do is some of them can stay calm and afloat. It gives rescuers time to get to them and sadly, cold water really cuts down on that, that time that someone can keep themselves above water and safe and kind of sticking with the time theme, even when we're not talking about water temperatures, they're a recommended amount of time. And I think this is especially important when it comes to, you know, parents and their kids because they see their kids having a fun time at the beach, playing in the water, you know, everything looks good. But at some point you don't want to interrupt the fun. But is there a time amount that the kids should be in the water before they need to come out and at least take a break? Like what kind of a time window should parents be keeping an eye on? Like now? Maybe my kid's been out there a little bit too long, might be getting a little bit too tired, might become more susceptible to the waves or, you know, you know, just, you know, reaching that point of exhaustion, what is kind of like a time window. People should kind of keep in mind when they're in the water before they need to come out and at least take a break for a while. Really. The question for asking really draws on some of my training as a wilderness first responder and just hypothermia set up, whether it's water or air and looking for the early warning sign of that, which is, you know, uncontrolled, shivering, loss of motor control, you know, a discoloration and lips and fingertips and stuff. So parents watching those early signs in the hypothermia continuum and getting your kids out of the water and warming them up so that that doesn't, you know, it kind of progressed. But that's also, you know, the same with surfers. I mean, you can get to the point where you can lose control and maybe not be able to paddle back. Yeah. And then so really kind of intervening, recognizing the early stages of hypothermia, if it's because you're at the shore in the water or just along the shore and the wind and cold temperatures are kind of impacting you or recognizing those early signs that hypothermia and intervening before it progresses to a dangerous point. Hey, Bruckner, I'm going to turn to lifeguarding a little bit. I know you do a little bit of lifeguarding work here at the Jersey Shore. And, you know, you said you're someone you've done a lot of work with Australia. I'm kind of curious, like you compare lifeguarding here in the United States to Australia, like what are some best practices that we're doing? What are best practices that people in Australia are doing? And have you been able to bring over some, you know, concepts from Australia to the U.S. and vice versa? Well, I've been really lucky and with the upper township Beach Patrol and Strap here in South Jersey, I'm also with the Mooloolaba Surf Lifesaving Club in Australia. I've worked with Surf Lifesaving Australian Surf Lifesaving Queensland, all on a larger level on some programs. I've also spent some time in Poland working with their lifesaving community, so I've been able to kind of absorb and look at how people protect the community and help people some very diverse shorelines with very varying resources. And I think that the main thing is lifeguards need to do a good job of educating the community, clearly, indicating where there are dangerous, that people should be aware out. And then hypothetically, the bus case is intervening so that, you know, lifeguards don't need to get wet, but a preventative approach to guarding some of these areas will keep everyone safe. I mean, there are instances of lifeguards being injured or passing away tragically during rescues. I've spent some time in Hawaii, and while we were filming waves safe, we actually had a rescue, a patron that was visiting from Minnesota that got into trouble. And I help one of the lifeguards bring them in at Waikiki. But I think the best practice is really communicating to the community what the dangers are for that specific beach are being consistent with how you communicate. And I think one of the best practices that I really appreciate, Australia is their national organization that sets the standard for all the surf lifesaving clubs. So you have a very uniform process of communicating beach hazards, uniform behavior and operations across each surf lifesaving pop. And I find that it's a little bit different in the U.S. because it's not as mandated across the entire country. So there are a lot of regional differences, which often falls to the beachgoer to recognize and look for. What do I need to know and how is it communicated at this specific agency and at this location? Yeah, and before we wrap up here, I just kind of want to go with your big takeaway. I mean, if you have that one message that you want to get out to people when you're talking about safety at the beach, what is what is that big takeaway message? You know, I spent a lot of time working on it for the Wave Stage series and knowing that lifeguards are going to go off duty after Labor Day, you're going to see a lot your ramen there. The takeaway three things respect the ocean, and that is respecting the dynamic environment that may be stronger, more powerful than what you've experienced. It can change from day to day, from year to year, the kind you visited last year on your vacation may be different this year because of the way storms of the winter reshaped the beach. Respect the ocean. It changes. It can be dynamic and can be dangerous. It can't be situationally aware of the weather of the water, of the people around you or the people in your party that are there with you. Be aware of changing conditions. You can buoy dangerous situations and finally take tent, which is really kind of our call to action. Protect yourself first to save others. We want to prevent both primary drownings. And too often when someone charges in to see someone in trouble and we end up with two backups. So those two the three things respect the Ocean state situationally aware hey ten to protect yourself and save others. Awesome. Very helpful stuff. Brockmire, as always, tremendous resource of what you're doing with Noah and with other organizations, bringing forth, you know, safety and, you know, communications and beachgoers who are going all across not only the Jersey Shore but all across America this summer year. So appreciate you coming on, Bruckner and we'll talk to you soon. Thanks again. Looking beyond the atmosphere, here's Tony Rice with your astronomy outlook. The Perseid meteor shower peaks this weekend, and it's one of the three most active meteor showers of the year. But this one has the benefit over December's Geminids or January's Quadrantids, peaking at a time where you don't have to bundle up to see them. Nearly every article on the Perseus mentions the number 100 when discussing how many meteors might be seen. Some use the only slightly more accurate phrase up to 100. The reality is most of us won't see nearly that many. That century number comes from the zenith hourly rate or is the h.r. This is a handicapping system of sorts used to correlate reports of meteor activity from around the world. That zenith part means it's being calculated on the radiant or point in the sky where the meteors appear to be coming from being directly overhead, something that's only possible to happen at one latitude and only for a brief time. Z are also mathematically eliminates light pollution and clouds the real enemy of seeing the most meteors. All that being said, though, the Perseus are definitely worth going out to see. And to see the most look to the darkest part of the sky. And meteors can appear anywhere, not just around that radiant point and those hours before sunrise. Those are the best because the radiant point is in the highest point in the sky and that hides the fewest meteors below the horizon. But above all, be patient. The longer you look, the more you'll see. You'll also be amazed how many more stars you'll see just after 15 minutes of letting your eyes adjust to the darkness. And on that, leave that phone inside. Each time you look to a light, the 15 minute timer starts over. That's your astronomy outlook. Follow me at RTP hockey for more space. Stuff like this. Thank you again, Bruckner for hopping on the podcast. 54 degrees Ocean waters and Alaska. Not my cup of tea, but it's definitely Bruckner's and I'm glad it is for him. But on a serious note, lots of good stuff in there. I mean, we say that every podcast, lots of good stuff. I think what what Bruckner Or what separates Bruckner here is that he actually goes out to these places and actually does talk about the weather hazards in those locations. He is an expert not just for, you know, the East Coast, but the West Coast, Gulf of Mexico. He's been to American Samoa many times. So he really has all of the United States, you know, in terms of the shore and what hazards that can bring on lock and how to empower all of us as we go, you know, to the beach, to the bays for the rest of the summer here. Yeah, I mean, it's funny because I can't imagine swimming in 50 degree water. I mean, I would just lock up in a hurry once it gets below 70. I'm just not a very happy, happy dude. I've swam in some sixties upper sixties, you know, when I've gone to the beach and I'm stubborn, I'm just going to wait in it, maybe ride a couple of waves, and then that's done. But, you know, you've got to acclimate to that stuff. And the idea that that you could go, you know, hypothermia could set in at 74, 75 degree water, that's a little shocking to me, to be honest. I think Bruckner is a candidate for our most interesting man in the world. Right? This lady is that that bio you read, Joe, at the start? It's like that raises that raises your eyebrows. Like this guy has some stories to tell. It stirred up. I mean, we barely got into it with him. But I think, you know, you know, he's using that hash of all these things on the water that he's done to spread it. I mean, clearly, they're going to be people that haven't done nearly as much as what he's done and maybe have no desire to. But for someone who's been in the water that long, I mean, you learn a lot about it and the fact that he's you know, now his main mission is spreading safety and awareness. I think there are a lot of good tips that he's spread there out there. And I really like, you know, when you go to the beach, he talks about how excited you get. And, you know, you're especially when you have kids with you. And so sometimes you you know, you're just focused like get in the water. But like, you know, I think what he mentioned was that take ten like just take a quick pause. Look at your surroundings. You know, look, are there any signs of rip currents in front of you before you run into the water? So as much as the emotions can get the best of you when you're having a fun day at the beach. Keep in mind that safety in taking some pause is taking a break, even just getting out of the water to take a break and looking at the water before you get in. Like that's real good advice. Respect the ocean. Yes, respect the ocean. The ocean will respect you. All right. And we are going to wrap it up here for another episode of the Across the Sky podcast. But we have many more episodes lined up for you here. Next Monday, you're going to hear from Zeke Hoare's father about warm ocean waters. You might have heard about that 101 degree ocean water temp off the coast of Florida and one of the bays we're going to talk about the warm ocean waters we've seen. We have Douglas Cossa coming on August 21st talking about heat and football. By the time you listen to this. The NFL's Hall of Fame game will have already happened, kicking off the preseason. So that is coming up. And then on Labor Day weekend, we're going to Sally Warner talking about warming the deep oceans from hurricanes. And that is very important as well. So we have a number of episodes lined up here.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

You've heard the saying: At least it's a dry heat. That might be true when comparing 90 degree temperatures in Arizona to Texas or Florida, but when dealing with truly extreme heat, hot is hot. With more than two weeks with temperatures above 110 degrees, ABC Arizona meteorologist Jorge Torres talks with the team about the impacts of this record-breaking heat wave on the people, the power grid, and everyday life in Phoenix. We want to hear from you! Have a question for the meteorologists? Call 609-272-7099 and leave a message. You might hear your question and get an answer on a future episode! You can also email questions or comments to podcasts@lee.net. About the Across the Sky podcast The weekly weather podcast is hosted on a rotation by the Lee Weather team: Matt Holiner of Lee Enterprises' Midwest group in Chicago, Kirsten Lang of the Tulsa World in Oklahoma, Joe Martucci of the Press of Atlantic City, N.J., and Sean Sublette of the Richmond Times-Dispatch in Virginia. Episode transcript Note: The following transcript was created by Adobe Premiere and may contain misspellings and other inaccuracies as it was generated automatically: Hello, everyone. I'm meteorologist Sean Sublette. And welcome to Across the Sky, our National Lee Enterprises weather podcast. Lee Enterprises has print and digital news operations in more than 70 locations across the country, including my home base in Richmond, Virginia. I'm joined by my meteorology colleagues from across the sky, Matt Holiner in Chicago, and Kirsten Lang in Tulsa. Our pal Joe Martucci, away from the office today, July 25th. And we bring that up we often don't talk about a specific day, but we bring that up because our guest this week is Jose Torres, a meteorologist at the ABC station in Phoenix, Arizona. They have have had more than two consecutive weeks with temperatures of 110 degrees or hotter. And we want to talk about how the city has been handling it, how the people have been handling it. And, you know, Matt, Kirsten, some of the things you talked about are things that we normally never have to think about here in the central United States or the eastern United States. And some of it was very eye opening. Yeah. Listen, when he starts to talk about what part of the hospital is actually seeing capacity during this time, because I think that was something that really was surprising to me. Yeah. And we got into the discussion because, you know, I've seen some people kind of dismiss the heat in Arizona and the Southwest, like, oh, it's just a dry heat and or he's from Texas, but I'm from Texas. So I was like, I want to talk to a guy who has experienced both the heat and humidity and the dry heat and really get an idea of which is worse. I just the same. So diving in and hearing his description, comparing Texas and Arizona, I really enjoyed that. Oh, yes, we hear that all the time. Oh, but it's a dry heat, so he'll get into that. I'll talk about power grid, I'll talk about water supply, infrastructure, all that stuff coming up. Or he is a native of Texas, as you alluded to, as a graduate of Texas A&M before he was in Phenix, he worked on the air in El Paso and Albuquerque. So let's get right to our conversation with Jorge Tourists. Meteorologist Abc15 in Phenix, Arizona. Jorge, thank you so much for joining us to talk about this brutal heat you've had in Arizona and in Phenix in particular. First off, I want to talk about Phenix. For people who aren't from around Phenix and Arizona and the Southwest, they had this idea. Well, of course, it's hot. It's Phenix. But but talk a little bit about how it is different this year, both in scope and how long this heat wave has been going on. Yeah, shot. So a lot of people outside of Phenix, the Valley in Arizona think of Phenix as a brutally place which for most the summer it is. The difference this year is the longevity of this excessive heat wave. Now, we actually have to start with the beginning of the year. What it was a cooler and wetter start across the west, including here in Arizona. We didn't really start seeing the one tens until late June. And we usually get them in mid-June. In fact, June tends to be on average the hottest month of the year in Phenix. But July of 2023 is going to beat that by a landslide. We have had now 25 consecutive days with highs at or above 110 degrees. That blows the all time record of 18 days that was set back in June of 1974. That's just one aspect. The other aspect is just how warm it stays even at night. That's the other thing we're noticing a lot more nights where lows don't even get below 90 degrees. We are now on 15 straight days with lows at or above 90. So the city and much of the valley doesn't even cool down at night. So that's what's made this particular stretch not just extreme, but also dangerous and unfortunately even deadly. So, George, you mentioned that it's been dangerous and it's been deadly. You know, working in the news business. I'm sure you've heard a lot of stories. You know what? How how are you seeing people cope with the heat in different ways than maybe they wouldn't have in the past just with this unrelenting heat wave that you've had. So one of the things here at ABC 13 that that we we promote is obviously people are trying to stay inside for as long as they possibly can safely between the hours of usually we would say from 10 a.m. to 6 p.m., but it's already around 100 degrees by 9 a.m. here. So we're telling people to stay inside at from essentially 9:00 until six if they can. Obviously, not a lot of people can because you have to be outside their job makes them be outside. So another thing we always say obviously is stay hydrated, drink plenty of water, electrolyte drinks. But we are also encouraging people to go to their nearest cooling centers. So one thing that the city of Phenix and Maricopa County has done very well is provide cooling centers for people to find an adequate location, not only to stay cool if they can, for a long period of time, but also to get water. And that's one thing we're seeing a lot here is a lot of cooperation between government agencies and entities to keep people who don't really have the luxury or the necessity or to buy a shelter to find a cooler space. And it gives them that opportunity, along with obviously malls being open, movie theaters, large places where people can go in and stay cool and. HAURI I'm curious about how disruptive this has been on everyday life there. Have there been certain adjustments to workers who have to be outside adjustments in their hours or maybe more frequent breaks or more water provided? And have there been any outdoor activities? I mean, we're talking about summertime here when people want to be going out and doing stuff. Have there been any events that have been canceled because of the heat? There was one just recently. There was a concerts by the group Disturbed that was canceled as a result of the Heat because it was in an outdoor amphitheater that in July temperatures begin to cool down a bit usually. So it's okay for the most part. But obviously this July has been unprecedented when it comes to this relentless heat. So that is one event that was canceled as a result of the excessive heat. We've had a lot of other events where people have raised their concerns or voiced their concerns regarding temperatures with a few concerts, but they've still gone off as far as other events. Now we're starting to see more schools open back up because a lot of schools here in the valley, which will be referred to the Phenix metro area, are year round. So they're beginning to open up. They're still adding practices, but yes, they are. They're giving their players a more breaks for water, obviously, along with many crews who work outside. We're talking construction workers, we're talking landscapers. They're still in it, starting very early. A lot of these crews start before sunrise when it's obviously still hot, still temperatures in the nineties. But they, from what we're understanding, are getting the breaks in order to stay cool and still do the job that they've been tasked to do. Yeah, but the stuff that has to be done outside, I get that entirely. But also they get in this kind of heat. Are there things happening to infrastructure? I've heard, you know, you hear the horror stories about pavement starting to melt. When it gets a certain temperature threshold, it takes a lot longer or a lot more running room for aircraft to get going because the air density isn't sufficient to get lift on the wings. Any of that kind of stuff starting to happen. From what you've seen. Nothing that's widespread, at least from what we have been reporting. Now we heard of a lot more air conditioning units go out because they're all in for such a long time. So we're seeing a lot more of these air conditioning companies. The backs going to repair a lot of these residential areas that don't have AC working. And in a place like Phenix in the middle of summer, that can be dangerous and that can be deadly. So we are seeing that. Something else we're noticing not so much from the infrastructure standpoint, but from the public health standpoint. A lot more burn victims going to the Arizona birds that are as a result of falling on the pavement. So we're hearing reports of first degree, second degree, even third degree burns from just being on the pavement, not just falling on it, but for those who unfortunately don't have a home to go to, are sleeping on it at night and throughout the day. So some of the birds, the Arizona birds that are are at capacity, a lot of them due to, unfortunately, some of the burn victims as a result of just how hot the pavement and the asphalt can be in excess of 150, even 160 degrees. So that's something we're noticing a lot, too. All right. So as you mentioned before, as we get into July, that's normally when the temperatures tend to back off. And I'm assuming that's because it's about the time of year when when the monsoon circulation is expected to show up. Talk a little bit about that in terms of the Phenix climate, when when you oftentimes expect the worst, the heat to break and the latter part of the summer, talk about the monsoon circulation, why it's important. And and I'm imagining people are really itching for it to show up soon. Everyone here in Arizona is waiting for the monsoon to wrap up. And yes, for those of you who are watching outside of Arizona in the southwest, a part of the United States does have its own version of the monsoon. It's not as intense as the one you're used to hearing about, say, in India. But we do have our monsoon season. We have our seasonal. Winship that starts to occur mainly in July, specifically for Arizona, but the onset starts in June in northern Mexico. What happens is that once you start to get those temperatures in the southwest really beginning to heat up, which is around June, we start to see that wind shift from the south and we get more moisture coming in. And then by July, mid-July is when we really begin to see that monsoon flow really park itself over Arizona and the southwest. And that's when we start to see those thunderstorms in the afternoon producing some of those famous videos. You see it up walls of dust called haboob. So that we had, what, about a week ago, and then we start to see more storms develop. But that's when we get a lot of our rainfall that being said, because most of the early summer months were cooler than average, the monsoon was delayed. So that's why July has been one of the hottest months on record and may actually be the hottest month on record for Phenix because we really haven't had the monsoon moisture and the storms to go with it to really drop those temperatures. And we're still waiting. But there are signs here in the next week or two that finally we could start to see some signs of life with the monsoon statewide. Yeah, that was something that that I was looking at prior to talking with you. Is that that long term forecasting kind of, you know, when when relief was inside, there was a lot of promise. Yeah, of course, it can't last forever. But, you know, looking at that, how what is it looking like is you look like August is going to be a little bit better month for you guys there then. Yes. As of now, it does appear that August looks a little more promising as far as a if not a wetter than average red, at least a near normal, which we will take obviously starting off with July being bone dry. And actually when it comes to rainfall, we have already exceeded 120 days without measurable precipitation at Benue State Harbor, which is where the official observations are taken. And that's already about to approach the top five list as far as long as stretches without rape. Also, you add on the 110 degree days, we've had the 90 degree days we've had and no rain over a span of months. So everyone's already like we're we're tired of this. We want some relief. But it does appear that that August is looking, if not where we should be on in a given month for August during the monsoon, maybe above. Yeah. I'm imagining where you should be for this time of year will will be a welcome relief. We're going to take a quick break then we'll have more with George Torres from Abc15 in Phenix, Arizona. And the blistering heat wave they're going through on across the sky will be right back. And welcome back to the Across the Sky podcast. I'm meteorologist Sean Sublette along with Houston Lang and Matt Hollander and our guest this week as well, he tourists from Abc15 in Arizona, Phenix, Arizona, where they are in the midst of an absolutely brutal and record shattering heat wave already I know 25 days above 110 and counting. This heat wave so bad, so prolonged. How what is kind of the feeling on the street as we're in terms of how people are perceiving this? Do they kind of see this as like, you know what, maybe this climate change thing is starting to show up? Are they kind of seeing it as well? You know, it's just Arizona and we're used to it. What's kind of the feeling out there in the public as you kind of mingle around and and hear people talking about this heat wave? Well, I'm getting different reactions from from different people. You have those who are lifers here in Arizona, specifically here in the Phenix Metro, and they're like, it's Phenix in summer. It's going to be hot. It's going to be 110 degrees every now and then. The the issue is that it's so prolonged and we keep breaking these records essentially daily, not just during the afternoon works out or ten and 15 or hottest temperatures so far this year, 190. It's happened twice already, and that hasn't happened since about 2017. So a lot of these temperatures haven't happened in a very long time. And so you have those who are like, you know what, this in 2020, we thought that was bad, where we had to be three days that entire year with highs and above 110. That's still a record. But you're seeing this happening more frequently, especially since the early 2000s. So people are also taking notice like, you know, I don't remember it being like this for so long. And then the other group that some people tend to forget about are those that just moved here. The one thing about four years is it's a vastly growing community and we have people moving in from the Midwest, from California, from all parts of the country and the world. And for them, this is their first summer in Arizona and they are experiencing one of the worst on record. So for them is like, is it normally like this? And we're like, it's not normally like this, but it may be a new normal if we continue going the path we are worldwide In. HAURI, I want to talk about the kind of heat. So you're from Texas? I'm from Texas as well. And so we are used to the heat and then one of the arguments that comes up are people in Texas and the Southeast is like, well, we deal with the humidity. It's the heat and humidity out west. And Phenix and Arizona, it's a dry heat, so no big deal. So is that true? Is a dry heat really better? Does the humidity make a difference or is hot? Just hot? It's hot. It's hot everywhere. When it's 100 degrees with no humidity, obviously that feels way better than 100 degrees with so much humidity like in Texas, which I don't miss going up there and and the summers were just brutal. But when you get to 110, when you get to 115, even when there's little humidity, it hurts like you feel it. It's a you know, it's a dry heat. But so is an oven. So is a jet engine. You don't want that in your face all day long. As as much as I don't miss that humidity in Texas, 100 degrees or 95 degrees with humidity, I'll take that over 115 hundred and 1718 degrees, even close to 190. It's a different kind of heat and it's a heat that that no one wants to be in. But yeah, millions of people that are in it every day, myself included. And just to follow up on that, too, I'm curious about the wind situation in Phenix, because one thing that was I noticed a difference when I grew up in San Antonio for my three years living in the Rio Grande Valley in Texas, which is near the Texas coast and the valley compared to San Antonio, there was a lot more wind. We got a lot more sea breeze activity. So we had a lot of hot, humid days, but there were quite a few days where it was breezy and that did make a difference when there was a breeze and you could like at least below the sweat of your body, it seemed to make a difference. The wind can help too. So what is the wind situation like thing, especially during this heat? Well, during the summer, it doesn't really get super windy unless you have storms nearby. We we've had a couple here and there, but in the afternoons we do get some occasional breezes. Wind speeds around 10 to 15. Well, we have 10 to 50 mile an hour wind speeds from a dry place with temperatures at 110, 115 degrees. It feels like a furnace is blowing in your face. So it doesn't give you that cool feeling like you would on the on the Texas coast here. It's just like a furnace is on and it's blowing hot air in your face. So it's really not comfortable even though we do have breezy days. And something else I was just curious about was how are things going, I guess with the electric grid there? You guys seeing any sort of power outages due to the heat? We are seeing power outages here and there across the valley, but they're not really prolonged. It is not a major outage issue across the valley and we don't expect it to be. The grid here is is different than than there is the one people know about in Texas with ERCOT, where they've had their issues and their concerns regarding demand over the past few years. We don't really have that concern here. But we do have those occasional power outages in certain communities and they can go on for a couple of hours, which is concerning. But the local energy and utility groups here, APS or SRP, they are on top of it for the most part when it comes to getting the power back on for those communities that are dealing with the outage, whether it be short term or long term. One other question I had kind of kind of dovetails off of that going back to water supply. I mean, I know it was a little bit wetter at the beginning of the year. Water supply. Okay. You know, we hear a lot of the horror stories here in the United States about the West is in deep trouble running out of water. It was a wet winter, so I'm guessing that that's helped everybody out a fair bit, at least for for a summer or two. But how is the water situation this summer there in Arizona? You're right in that the winter it was a wet one across the west from California to Colorado, where a lot of Arizona's water supply comes from the Colorado River and the lake levels at Powell and Mead have gone up quite a bit over the past few months. So that is a welcome sight for us here in Arizona, where a lot of our water supply comes from the Colorado and also the Salt and Verde rivers, which are more local, and they haven't really been impacted as much, thankfully. The other concern, obviously, is our groundwater supply. And that's where we've had more concern because the majority of groundwater in the state of Arizona is unregulated and you have a do a few places, including Phenix, that has a regulated groundwater supply. In fact, earlier this year, the governor of Arizona, Hobbs, announced that within the Phenix AMA or active management area companies who are only going to use groundwater as far as the water supply for certain communities within the Phenix metro area have to show proof of another form of water. And it can't just be solely groundwater if not, and that they're building a large enough community residential or subdivision, then they cannot be approved to built. So that is something that is brand new as of this year, some companies will not be allowed to build if they are only showing groundwater as their only source of water for the project that they are building. So that's something that's new that our governor has imposed here. Yeah. I'm curious about what other long term discussions are happening since over the last few years we've seen these extended heat waves. This seems to be something that is going to be an issue moving forward. The heat situation getting worse, perhaps extended droughts. What are some of the other discussions that are going on as far as long term planning, preparing Phenix? Cause you're obviously not going to move the entire city of Phenix out of their population. It's just been going up. So what kind of long term discussions are happening about what can be done moving forward in the future to be. Better prepared for these heat? Well, one thing when it comes to the heat waves, City of Phenix is the first city in the country that has its own Office of Heat and Mitigation. It was put into place a couple of years ago, and it's looking at ways to mitigate the the extreme heat that we deal with here in Phenix, you know, one of the hottest metropolitan cities in the country. And so the office is coming up, ways to try to be resilient when it comes to allowing the valley to cool down a bit by making more parks with trees, things of that nature. So that is something that the city is really, really putting an emphasis on because the Phenix is growing and it's going to grow quite a bit. People for the most part, for the most part, love Phenix and Arizona. When it's not 100 to 115 degrees. You have the rest of the year where temperatures are very comfortable. And so our our weather conditions. But in the summer months, obviously, it can get dangerously hot like like this summer so far. So that's one thing that looking long term the city is working on, too, to find ways to make the city a bit cooler than it has been. Yeah, I understand that for sure, because I think we all know the planets in the cities are only getting hotter. We've got urban heat to contend with on top of the the planetary warming signals. So it's good that they're thinking ahead for for the long term planning or anything else you wanted to share before we turn you loose and let you get back to your day job. Mean one thing we're constantly doing here at Abc15 is is talking about these issues, whether it be extreme heat, whether it be air quality, whether it be, as you guys talked about or asked about the water concerns here in Arizona and across the west. And we are continuing to tell the public that, you know, this is something that we're going to have to deal with unless changes are made, not just at the local level or in your home, but also at the government level, higher up from state and federal. And, you know, the more report on it, the more people are understanding the issues and the more we could see some change. I mean, it's not stuff that we're asking for. We're just saying, you know, this doesn't happen. That's going to happen. But if this happens, that'll happen. So that's all we're doing here at ABC 15 is just talking about the important issues when it comes to climate specifically, but pertains to Phenix and Arizona and let the viewers know what's happening. Good man, good man. So sorry. Thank you so much for taking the time with us today. And do your best to stay cool to all of our all of your colleagues there at Abc15, too, to stay cool as well. And hopefully we'll talk with you again soon. All right. Looking forward to it. Hopefully by then, temperatures here will be much, much cooler. Yeah, we'll see. We'll see if we'll get a good haboob going for later this summer. Hit the fall. Take care, man. Hurry. I'll take care. Thank you. What a great conversation with Foray today in the midst of a heat wave that, frankly, is very hard for me to even imagine. And one of the things I'm glad you all brought up was the power situation, because it's really hard to imagine going without electricity, an air conditioner, air conditioning in a situation like this. I remember as a kid, you know, in the seventies and eighties, we didn't have air conditioning in the hot Virginia summers. And that was that was bad enough. I really can't fathom what it would be like to to be in a house without air conditioning in Phenix, Arizona, right about now. Well, it just got me thinking about, you know, beyond, you know, the southeast and southwest, where, you know, most folks at least have air conditioned. Now, there is the issue where the cost is so high this people are not running their air conditioners in this extreme, which is a scary thought. But to me, you know, we're seeing the heat expand to more places farther north. And these heat waves aren't just limited to the southwest, but they're happening in the Midwest. The northwest, the northeast, and places where some people don't even ever do this. And again, that was the biggest shock to me moving from Texas to Chicago. How there are apartments here, there are homes here that don't even have air conditioning. And I think moving forward, you're going to see less and less than that and a pivot where, you know, so much of the focus has been on the heat or the cold winters and making sure people have heat to a more of a shift that in the summer we got to make sure people have air conditioning and no longer is it okay to not have air conditioning in a lot of places. With the temperatures on the rise, that's becoming a necessity, not an option. Yeah, And you know, we have in Tulsa, whenever we have such hot conditions and I'm sure they have it there too, you have those cooling stations which, you know, you got to have those across the city when you have temperatures like this for some people who, you know, forget the the fact if they have it, their power is going out. Some of them, you know, may be homeless and don't have a spot at all to to receive any kind of AC. And so those cooling stations are really important as well in situations like this just to you know, just to stay healthy. It'll hit you hard and it'll hit you fast. That heat I visit out there quite often. I know I've talked about this before, but I've been was out there and it is different. You know, he described it as feeling like you're in an oven. And I think that was like spot on. Yeah, we're going to stay with heat as the theme there. Our next podcast. We've got Zeke House father coming up next time. He's a climate scientist who's written a lot extensively for both carbon brief and Berkeley Earth there on the West Coast in California. We're going to be talking about the hot ocean waters. You know, we've heard a lot about how how hot the oceans have been this season. We're going to talk a little bit about what's causing that. It's not just the the warming climate, but there are other things going on. He's he's really good at that. So looking forward to having our Zeke. And then we're going to a couple more more kind of ocean and and safety kind of things whether it's, you know, coastal safety or then returning to hurricanes before we get into we're getting close to football season, right? So we're going to have somebody from the Korey Stringer Institute or Korey Stringer Institute excuse me, Doug Kass of there to talk about heat and football practice. Because you put those pads on, you drawn the wind sprints and the August heat, and that puts you at risk as well. So now we're going to close up shop for this week. So for Kirsten Lang in Tulsa, Matt Holiner in Chicago, and our pal Joe Martucci in Atlantic City, I'm meteorologist Sean Sublette, thank you for listening to the Across the Sky podcast and we'll see you next time.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Whether you live on the coast fulltime, own a vacation home or are considering a move to the coast, you know that there is an annual risk from hurricanes for homeowners, particularly along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts. Our guest today is George Siegal, a filmmaker and podcaster, who directed the documentary "The Last House Standing." He says knowledge is power when it comes to protecting your home. Listen to understand the questions you need to ask when talking to your realtor or contractor about preparing your house.  We want to hear from you! Have a question for the meteorologists? Call 609-272-7099 and leave a message. You might hear your question and get an answer on a future episode! You can also email questions or comments to podcasts@lee.net. About the Across the Sky podcast The weekly weather podcast is hosted on a rotation by the Lee Weather team: Matt Holiner of Lee Enterprises' Midwest group in Chicago, Kirsten Lang of the Tulsa World in Oklahoma, Joe Martucci of the Press of Atlantic City, N.J., and Sean Sublette of the Richmond Times-Dispatch in Virginia. Episode transcript Note: The following transcript was created by Adobe Premiere and may contain misspellings and other inaccuracies as it was generated automatically: Welcome back, everybody, to another episode of the Across the Sky podcast brought to you by Lee Enterprises. I'm meteorologist Joe Martucci. I am here with meteorologist Sean Sublette, meteorologist Matt Holiner. Kirsten Lang is not here today as we talk about hurricane preparedness in your house, we are going to use the heat of hurricane season really starts to ramp up in August, the peak of about ten stands and interest will drop through mid-October. So I think we're in a second quarter of hurricane season here. But as we get into the peak, we have George Siegal  here to talk to us about it. He does a lot of work in home preparedness year. We think it's very valuable as we go into the season, especially for those of you who are living on the East Coast or on the Gulf Coast. I have a second house there. So let's hop on into it and we'll talk to George Siegal  on the Across the Sky podcast. Okay. We are here with George Siegal . George is currently in the Tampa area in Florida. He is a filmmaker, a podcaster and a former local news reporter. And Weather Castor will talk about that as well. But we really have him on today to talk about hurricane preparedness in relation to owning a home. You know, as we get into August and September and October, especially if you live in Florida or if you live on the coast, you're thinking about hurricane season, what you need to do to prepare yourself now and what you need to do when we do get into those hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings. George also directed the documentary The Last House Standing has a podcast as well. So we welcome John George to our Across the Sky podcast. Thanks so much for joining us here today to talk about hurricane. Hey, thank you for having me on. I appreciate it. Yeah, you're very welcome. So, you know, first I want to talk a little bit about your weather career here. First, what got you interested in weather and where across the country have you been forecasting a lot? You know, probably easier to tell you where I haven't been. You know, it just it was a fluke how I ended up doing it. I used to I grew up watching Pat Sajak when he was a weatherman in Southern California, and I went to audition for a job in Bakersfield for a sports job. And the guy said, Oh, can you do weather? We have an opening for a weather guy. I said, Sure, I can do weather. And I didn't know anything about weather, but I was good at talking. And so I got the job and, you know, I did it for the next 14 years. Couldn't get away from that job. You know, I never I wasn't a meteorologist. I learned how to do, you know, read the maps and do forecasting. I was doing it more for entertainment value. But it was it was a lot of fun. You got to meet a lot of interesting people. I've worked with some really talented people at different stations around the country. I worked from San Francisco to Seattle. I started in Bakersfield, went to Fresno, Detroit and San Antonio. So I got to live some fun places. And it was it was a good experience. So, you know, you said, you know, entertainment of, you know, couple of seconds to go there. But now you're really working on, you know, more serious topics, right? So now that you get closer to hurricane season, it's more about what can I do now to be prepared? Absolutely. Make check your insurance policy. Make sure that you have the coverage that you think you have. Have somebody explain it to you. You know, the insurance policy is 50, 60 pages long. Sometimes most people read the first page where their name is and they sign something. And so you really need to understand it is are there exclusions for storms? But most insurance policies aren't going to cover flooding at all. And if you need to get an inch flood insurance policy, it takes 30 days for that to go into effect. So when you look at the hurricane maps now and you see something cooking in the tropics and you go, that could be ten days away, that could be 15 days away, you're not going to have flood insurance for that. So then you have to go, okay, well, what are the things I can do right now? Take pictures of everything in your house and document it so you know what you have. Yeah. I'm curious about when you get into this short time span. I mean, within a week and you're in the cone. And of course, there's still uncertainty where the worse impact everybody you know, for people in Florida, anywhere in the US East Coast, once you're in the cone and you're down to a week before a potential landfall, what should people really focus on? Because there's so many things suddenly that you feel like you have to do, but what are the most important things people should do now to prepare their home for a potential hurricane or tropical storm making landfall? Well, first of all, you really have to know how your home is built to withstand something like that. So, for example, you know, we were talking before we went on about Saint Petersburg. A lot of Saint Pete would be underwater in a major storm. So you have to know what is the flooding potential for where you live, whether you even want to stay there, if you've ever seen those videos of people getting rescued off the roof of their house or I have a guy I interviewed for my podcast who was in Tin City, which is down in Naples, and they had 20 homes in their community and they all flooded during it. And he evacuated. One of his neighbors did not. And she was killed in the hurricane. She drowned. And it's just frightening to see those things. So you really have to know where I'm living. What is the risk here? And then you have to know when to go in Florida because it's a peninsula. If you wait too long, you could be sitting on the highway when the storm is hitting. The gas could all be out between here and wherever you're going. So you have to know when to leave and you have to know what you're leaving behind. And how safe is your house going to be there. It's like, you know, are people going to break in and steal everything you have? What if your roof is leaking and you have to stop it from leaking? But the commitment has to be to protect your life and your family first. That has to be the number one thing. And when the experts tell you to go, I mean, as critical as I can be of weather forecast, I think those guys do a phenomenal job and I think first responders do a terrific job. But when you stay behind and are caught in a storm and they have to come get you, now, you're risking their life. So it's a whole level of responsibility. But the main thing is understanding what what you think your house will do in a storm, what your neighborhood will do, what's the flood potential like? We did something in our house. We have a double front door with I have a newer house, but those double front doors are pretty worthless if it's really strong wind because they'll just blow right in. So what I did is I bought a Kevlar blanket that's made where they screw it in around the frame of the door, and you could try to shoot a cannon through that and it wouldn't open. So I know my front door is safe. I know we're at ten feet elevation. So when Ian was coming, we were told it's going to be higher than ten feet. And, you know, that was a really scary time. And I just wanted to go back to the forecasting thing. I don't want to keep beating on that, but the forecasters had everybody here so scared, okay, this is going to be bad. This is the worst case scenario, blah, blah, blah. And then when the storm turned, they all acted like, well, they usually turn when they approach Florida like that. And it's the news media mentality of they always give themselves attaboys even when they're wrong. I my boss used to say, don't ever tell him to tell people. Tell people why the forecast was wrong. Don't talk about it. So when it would rain on that picnic on Saturday, on Monday, the anchors would go, George, you nailed another one. That was great. And I used to go crazy. I go, People aren't stupid. The people that just got poured on at that festival hate me at this time. Why don't I go on the air and explain what happened? Why don't I explain the convergence zone shifted or this storm developed quickly, You know, tell them why. And we weren't allowed to do that. So you see a lot of patting on the back and the most accurate forecast, even when it's wrong. I think in recent years that that mentality has shifted. I feel like with the advent of just democratization of news, that you need to kind of be honest with yourself because people will, like you said, they'll realize that the forecast is wrong. You go somewhere else. It is really interesting by Ian. No, I mean because, you know, to your point, right, it did look like, you know, Tampa, Clearwater, St Petersburg was ground zero. But as we know, Fort Myers was still always at a risk or it just wasn't in the center of the cone like you saw. So what are your ideas about, you know, making sure when you're talking about a hurricane forecast cone that we could say, you know, in the case of Ian, hey, look, if you're in Fort Myers, you still got to pay attention to this, even though Tampa is Saint Petersburg. Clearwater was, you know, three, four days out looking to be you know, they were in the center of the cone, but that didn't mean that they were doing to thoroughly, you know, the worst case scenario for it either. You know, that all boils down to how people don't think anything bad is going to happen to them. We all we you know, every year we see when and whenever a hurricane is headed towards New Orleans, all the people partying on Bourbon Street, you see the people that put up signs saying it's not going to affect me, the storm's not going to hurt us. I think people just live with that. So when you're in the corner of the cone, you have this false sense of security. And those people absolutely should have been preparing. But then places like Sanibel Island and Captiva, there's one way off of that island. So if you think you need to get out, you don't wait till the last minute or you're not getting out. And we saw how bad Sanibel and Captiva were damage. We used to go down there every year and it's heartbreaking. All right. Well, we have George Siegal  here on the Across Sky podcast. We're going to take a brief break and the other side will have more. Welcome back to the Across the Sky podcast. Ah, Lee Enterprises National Weather Podcast. New episodes come out every Monday. Wherever you get your podcasts, we are joined with George Siegal  again here. We're talking about homeownership, hurricane preparation. One talk a little bit about what you've been up to. You have a documentary set that's been on Netflix or trying to get it on Netflix. You've been on PBS as well. The last House standing here. And what I like on the cover here is you say hope is not a strategy and that is certainly true. So tell us about the last House standing where people can find it. And, you know, how relates to the work that that you're trying to convey out to the public. Sure. The film is about how we blindly buy homes and build homes in places without truly understanding the consequences. And then we seem surprised when they get wiped out every year. And the house we themed it around was on Mexico Beach from Hurricane Michael. It was truly the last house standing in that area. And I actually came up with that name from watching Talladega Nights, the Ricky Bobby movie, where if you're not first, you're last. And it's like, okay, sometimes you want to be last. I want to be the last house standing. I've actually had people argue with me. I wouldn't want to be the only house left if everybody else was wiped out. So what's wrong with you? You'd rather just be wiped out to now build a safe house? And that's what the film is about. And we explore tornadoes and tornado zones, hurricane areas, fire areas. And with the hurricanes that we saw and it's what do you have to build that will survive the hazards in that area? And there's always something you can do to be safer. And so that's what the film focuses on. It's on to be TV, which most people have with if they have a newer television, you can get to be as you have to sit through some commercials. But it's a great way to watch a lot of different films. And it's also on my website, The Last House Standing, Dawg, where you can go on there and rent the film. And it really is a wake up call for people, and it's all part of the theme of what drives my podcast about Tell us how to make it better. It's what can we do to improve our chances? Because if we're waiting for somebody to change the building code or to come in with some master save for us, it's not going to work out too well because we can't even agree as a country what's what color the sky is. So to say, Well, let's change the building code. That's tough to do. It happens. We have some examples in our film, but it doesn't happen easily. And you know, people have houses where the builder goes, He boss said. The house is built to code and I've interviewed architects on my podcast, but they say a good builder is building for the future. Not to code to code should be a four letter word. It's like, well, code is not good enough. In Mexico Beach where they were wiped out, they're not even rebuilding to the standard that would survive another hurricane. Michael And that's the same story with with the rebuilding for me. And so that the film is designed just as a wake up call and I hope people check it out. We're working on another version of that. So hopefully in the next six months or so called Built to Last Home buyer Beware. And it's just about all the things that go on behind the scenes in the houses that we end up in that we don't know about. And, you know, there's a whole lobbying industry that builders have to keep the code as low as possible. Right. Following up on that, George, I was going to ask you this. I mean, everybody loves being near the coast, right? We just kind of intrinsic it's a intrinsically human kind of thing, right? But but aside from the idea of like, well, is just not going to happen to me, what do you think needs to be done? And I don't I want necessarily mean physically, financially or socially. What do you think can be done to convince people, you know, have you're running to build things at the shore. You do have a risk, you know, to to emphasize to people, yeah, this legit can happen to you instead of just going, yeah, well, you know what happens to other people? Is there anything we can do? Messaging code, stronger code, obviously, but anything else that comes to mind to to really drive home this point. In a brief short answer that that's depressing is no, there's probably not much because people have freedom in this country. They want to do what they want. Nobody wants to tell you where to live and what you can do. So now people are flocking to those areas. What we're seeing in Florida, you know, I live in Tampa and we want to switch homeowners insurance. We can't even find a company that'll cover us and that happens to most people. And so you look at where the risk is the greatest. All those people that live right by the water, we're paying for that when we don't live by the water. So who should share that risk? And I think once it gets down to the point where you can't get insurance for living there, maybe things would have to change because right now that risk is spread out for everybody and it's hurting everybody because you can't get homeowner's insurance. Auto insurance is leaving Florida like crazy. I'm sure that situation exists in other states. Building code is key. South Florida has the toughest building codes probably in the country, and you see a lot less damage down there when there are hurricanes. They saw those from in in southwest Florida. The newer structures did a lot better than the older ones. Even the ones that weren't necessarily flood proof are strong enough. Newer is better than older, but we have a huge, older building stock in this country and you see it clean places out like Mexico Beach. You see what it did to Sanibel Island where all those things were would right on the water that just got obliterated by Ian. And that's kind of a way of, okay, now you have a chance to rebuild. How are you going to rebuild? And they the example I told you about in ten City in Naples, they didn't do anything differently, but they fixed 20 houses in that neighborhood. Now, their flood insurance went way up. But if there's another hurricane this year, it'll flood again because there's nothing new that was done. So I don't know what it's going to take, but I'm willing to stand on the Hill and keep screaming, Wake up. But it's it's it's it feels futile sometimes because it's hard to get people to change and accept it. But I want to go at this from the perspective of a home buyer. If you're in the market and you want to be prepared or a hurricane, you know you're in a place that might be vulnerable. But also, you know, we're just seeing a lot of severe thunderstorms, too. And the wind, high winds that come with severe thunderstorms. And is your home prepared? I mean, we're not just about tornadoes. We're just high winds from a strong a thunderstorm. You know, what are the questions that a prospective homebuyer should be asking the builder or the seller about? How is this home prepared for severe weather? The questions that you should be asking to see how well that house is prepared to handle severe weather? You know, the first question I would ask them is what disaster did you consider when you were building this house and what have you done to cover those? I think you'll eliminate a lot of people real quickly with that, because I think the answer first of all, some of you may not even know, but they're going to look at you with a blank look and say, well, we built this house is built to code. And it's like, okay, but are the is the roof bracketed to the walls? Are the walls bracketed to the foundation? Do you have hurricane windows? Are these double pane windows? Are they what wind rating does this house have? What is there foam sprayed in the attic that can give you that extra barrier of protection for wind? What's the garage door rating? What's the door and the front door rating? You know, we had a friend when we first moved here. We went to their house and the door opened out. Not in. And I looked at I'm like, Why would you do this? This is so unwelcoming. And then I did a little research and realized those doors don't blow in. Brilliant. But most builders don't want to do that because it doesn't look good when the door opens out into the face of the person that's knocking on your door. So there's a lot of things that you can ask and ask questions. And I got to tell you this for someone who made a film, I don't even know who the owner of the company who built my house, that's how bad a job I did because I dealt with the salesman and then the foreman, the guy that was out there working with us. So I didn't get to ask a lot of those questions. So I'm somebody who knows these things now. I'd love to go back and do that because those knuckleheads couldn't answer any questions. They probably don't know anything. And then when you go in and you find things I had a guy on last week or he's on my podcast this week is a home inspector and he found a couple in the foundation that they left when they poured it and he pulled the cup out. So now there's a little hole there that's not going to destroy the integrity of the house. But if the trash was that obvious, right by the end of the foundation, that entire house is probably filled with garbage. And if they didn't clean it and do that, what other lack of detail went on on that job site? So if you're buying a house, first of all, go around the neighborhood and see that builders, other job sites, see what their work looks like, how clean it is, how thorough they look, because most builders will give you a list of three or four happy customers that they have and say, talk to these guys. They love me. They have a great house. Nobody gives out the bad guys. They're not going to say, Yeah, go talk to Phil. He sued me and I just had to pay them $1,000,000. You're not going to get those. You have to do your work. You have to ask questions. Don't get lulled into the eye, Candy, of the granite countertops and the wood floors. Ask about the safety features and beat them over the head with it. If they don't want to deal with you, don't deal with them. Don't reward mediocrity. And that's what we always do, because we need a house quickly or we fall in love with it because it's a great backyard for our kids. Another thing I like to do and a lot of people don't have access to this, but I would ask you, the subs worry that worked on the House and find out if those guys were any good because your house is only going to be as good as the total of all those people that worked on it. So I know the pool builder that my builder hired probably couldn't blow up an inflatable pool. This guy was a moron and we have problems with it all the time. You want to know who these people were? When you have somebody come to to look at your electrical and they go, Wow, that doesn't look right, then you have to think about all that other stuff. So ask a lot of questions and get access to the people who can answer them. And if they don't go find something else. Good info, George. Yeah, I agree with you there. You know, I think we're going to wrap it up. I mean, we had a lot in a short period of time, but I just want to leave the floor open to you. Your message to our podcast listening audience here across the country about hurricane and home threat and how we can follow you. Before we wrap it on up. My main message is ask questions and be as prepared as you can. Don't be quick to make a deal and do your work because people aren't going to do it for you. And ultimately, it's only your fault if your realtor doesn't tell you something. Well, you could have researched it if your builder doesn't tell you something that maybe you didn't ask enough questions. So I want people to ask more. Be inquisitive. You can. I told you where you could watch the last outstanding. You go to the last outstanding, dawg. And my podcast is Tell us how to make it Better and that's it. Tell us how to make it better. Dot com. And it's warning signs and solutions for homeowners. And I have guests every week to talk about things you should be paying attention to for your house, things you should know about, things you should be involved with in the building process and the design process, because your knowledge can make all the difference in the world. And I'm telling you, I'm guilty of lack of knowledge. Don't make mistakes that I've made. So I try to point out things to people because, you know, you want to avoid those mistakes. My dad used to always lecture me and I go, Why are you telling me this? Because. Because I don't want you to make the same mistakes I did. And I realize how smart he was. I see that blank look on my kids faces when I tell them that. And you go, Come on, just take some of this knowledge. It can only help you. It's not going to hurt you. And that's what I want people to come away with. Awesome. Well, George, thanks so much for the time and the insight here as we get into the heart of Hurricane season. Thanks a lot again, We really appreciate it. Thank you for having me on. We'll be right back. Thanks again, George, for hopping on here. You know, he lives in the Tampa area, so he sees a lot of this firsthand, at least the threats for hurricanes firsthand. I do really like what you said about asking questions. I'm currently in the trying to buy a home market. And now I'm thinking as I look for houses, I should probably be asking more questions that I am already. Sean, I think you how do you know? Bought a house, looked at the houses. Have you asked a lot of these kind of questions when you go into homeownership? I really kind of feel like a little afraid to ask these guys. It's just, you. Know, it's it is hard. I mean, you do want a house. You're excited about being a homeowner for the first time or second time. And you're I've never bought one that was new. I've always bought one that somebody had been living in. And you double check that it's up to code, which is what he alluded to. But no, by my own admission, I haven't looked that deeply into this rating or that rating right. So it's true. I mean, it's a hard it's hard to sit there and ask those questions. But if you do live in a place that is especially vulnerable. Now, having said that, if I were to be fortunate enough to start looking at property near the coast, I mean, with actually near the coast, I don't mean oceanfront, I mean within five or ten miles of the coast, I absolutely have to stop what I'm doing and think about that because only that there's insurance like he said, homeowner's insurance. Suddenly you're having trouble getting that in Florida in the first place. We've also seen that in California because of fires. And this goes back to the whole climate thing, which you alluded to, Matt. So, yeah, it's there's a lot to unpack as the as the expression goes. I just want to say one thing too. You know, with the insurance, you know, in Atlantic City, New Jersey Shore where I cover, you know, day in and day out, a lot of talk is about discounts on your FEMA flood insurance. There is something called the community rating scale where, you know, it's a combination of paperwork done actual things in the towns that help you accumulate points and get discounts on your FEMA flood insurance. You can get up to 45% off on your FEMA flood insurance if you live in a town that takes these tests seriously about mitigating coastal flooding. We have a town here, Avalon in New Jersey. Beautiful area, beautiful town. They get 35% off. And that's the only town in the state that gets that kind of percentage off and that saves, you know, across the whole town over $1,000,000 a year just by the the increase in the rating there. You know, so they it's called the community rating scale. You can check it out. It goes from level ten, which is no percent off the level one, which is 45% off. But if you live along the coast thinking about buying along the coast or along a waterway, rivers, check that out because you know your town, you know, you may want to talk to your elected officials a little bit more about, hey, maybe we should be doing some of this, you know, as you go forward. Well, one of the things that stood out to me is, you know, you can ask the question, was this house built to code? And the answer is yes. But then the follow up question is, well, what is the code? And, you know, I think that's something that has to be looked at because are we building homes the right way? Are we building them to withstand increased extreme weather? And extreme weather is happening more frequently. It's becoming more likely that your home is going to be impacted by a hurricane or impacted by a severe thunderstorm. And so the code that we were building to may not be up to par now. I think we really have to look into that. But the problem is in order to build a safer house that can withstand strong winds, it's going to cost more. And we already know there's a big problem with the cost of housing. And so when you tell people, well, now we have to increase the home costs to build it safer, but that shouldn't be we shouldn't compromise safety, you know, for cost. So I think what we need to look at is ways to improve the safety of homes and make them be able to withstand extreme weather better, but not have this huge inflated cost, because that definitely will turn a lot of people. Well, you don't want people to say, well, no, I'm going to pass on that. I'm going to build a little less safe house just to save money. You don't want it to come to that. So that's something we really have to look at moving forward, I think is making sure that we keeping things affordable, but also improving the quality of. Yeah, absolutely. All right. Well, another episode in the books here. We will be back with you next Monday as well. And before we do that, we want to tell you you can, if you have any questions, whether question the climate questions, questions about us, you cannot give us a shower all on social media. You can find us there or if you are interested, we still have our hotline that you can check out. That phone number is 609272. I keep forgetting this 7099. So you check us out there and you can give us a phone call as well as we get an email. I'm sorry. Podcast. Podcast. Sadly, dot net you want to send in. There you go. If you don't feel like calling it is 2023. People always feel like calling you. You can go to podcast. Yes, I leaked that as well. Taking a look at what we have down the road. We got a nice mix of people. We have. We have Zeke, Hoss, Father Sean. They say that right. As Father Yep. House Father We're talking about the near record or record warm ocean waters. The August summit episode is going to be Bruckner Chase, who does a lot of stuff nationally based in my home market here, here, Atlantic City, about ocean and coastal safety. And we have Sally Warner talking about warming of the deeper oceans from hurricanes here. And then on August 21st, heat and football. So we have you scheduled out with plenty of Across the Sky podcast episodes for the next couple of weeks. So plenty of listening to you. I hope everyone's enjoying what it's putting out for you over summer and tell friends old friend, about our podcast. We think they're interested in what we have to say, so meteorologist Sean Sublette, meteorologist in the corner, I am urologist Joe Martucci signing off for another episode of the Across the Sky podcast.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

With this being the week of the 2023 Open Championship at Royal Liverpool Golf Club in Hoylake, Merseyside, England, we thought it would be a good time to talk about weather and golf. When thinking of the two, the first thing to come to mind might be the danger of holding up a golf club during a thunderstorm. But that's oversimplifying things. How does the roll of the putt change when there is an early morning dew covering the greens? How does temperature and humidity impact the game? University of Oklahoma meteorology student and avid golfer Peyton Galyean joins the podcast this week to talk about how weather and golf are connected. She also shares how the Texas hurricanes of her youth impacted her path into weather and the story of how ABC Chief Meteorologist Ginger Zee became her mentor. We want to hear from you! Have a question for the meteorologists? Call 609-272-7099 and leave a message. You might hear your question and get an answer on a future episode! You can also email questions or comments to podcasts@lee.net. About the Across the Sky podcast The weekly weather podcast is hosted on a rotation by the Lee Weather team: Matt Holiner of Lee Enterprises' Midwest group in Chicago, Kirsten Lang of the Tulsa World in Oklahoma, Joe Martucci of the Press of Atlantic City, N.J., and Sean Sublette of the Richmond Times-Dispatch in Virginia. Episode transcript Note: The following transcript was created by Adobe Premiere and may contain misspellings and other inaccuracies as it was generated automatically: Welcome this week's Across the Sky Podcast. I'm Kirsten Lang here with the Tulsa World, here with my colleagues Sean Sublette and Matt Holiner. Joe Martucci off this week, but he'll be back next week. And our guest this week, a very impressive young lady. Her name's Peyton Galyean. She is a University of Oklahoma student and an avid golfer and has some really interesting stuff to talk to us about when it comes to the two she calls it her two loves. Today, we have a very special guest. Her name is Peyton Galyean, and she is an Oklahoma University of Oklahoma student in her junior year. She's studying meteorology, but then also an avid golfer. And I got to meet her at the AMS Broadcast conference, a couple of weeks ago back in Phoenix. Peyton, you gave an awesome speech when you were there and it was so nice to meet you. And we're just so glad that you're here on our podcast with us today. So welcome. Yes, thank you for having me. Yeah. So tell us a little bit about your background because it's kind of a neat one. You know, just kind of how you got into meteorology and golf and and the two loves how you brought them together. So I'm originally from Houston, Texas, and I grew up on Galveston Bay and 28 Hurricane Ike made landfall in Galveston and I was seven at the time. And I didn't really know what was going on. We don't learn about hurricanes in school, and my grandmother lives on Galveston Bay. The storm surge produced five feet of water in her home. And at the time, my dad was transitioning from being a law enforcement officer to the city emergency management coordinator. So I just started tagging along with him to different work events. And through that I was able to meet so many National Weather Service officials, broadcast meteorologists throughout the Houston area. And I realized I wanted to be a meteorologist. And as I got older, I really fell in love with broadcast. Being able to have that connection with your viewers, especially being through multiple hurricanes Ike Harvey, Rita, just to name a few, you know, what people are going through. And you can really have that connection. Like, I know what it's like to have everything, you know, sit on the side of the curb. It's going to get better, I promise. But at the same time, my dad also introduced me to golf. I was in middle school when I started playing golf. I played seventh grade in eighth grade. And then I got to high school and I made my varsity team and I still don't really know what I was doing, but I started taking it more seriously. And then I started getting scholarship offers. But I always knew I wanted to go to O.U. Is O.U. Has such an incredible meteorology program. And so I was kind of in the in between, like, do I still continue playing golf? That's something I really love. But I've always wanted to be a meteorologist. I decided to go play golf for a junior college in Oklahoma just to kind of help with the financial aspect of it, get some credits out of the way that would transfer. I applied for a semester, Seminole State College, in the fall of 2019 in just realized college golf was not what I thought it would be. So I decided to transfer to O.U. And then a pandemic hit eight weeks later. So right before the pandemic happened, I had joined the club golf team at O.U. Because I didn't want to give it up completely. Even though I had a bad experience. I had to close that door with my previous school and I wanted a new opportunity. And then with the pandemic happening, it just never went anywhere. But soon after, I realized I needed a job to kind of help pay for school as well. So I applied to golf courses at Norman, and I've been working at one and more for about three years now, and I absolutely love it. And that's when I kind of started realizing whether has such an impact on golf that people don't realize, like, yes, it's an outdoor sport. Yes, you have to deal with all the lightning protocols, but when you realize that if there's mourning, do on the ground, your ball's not going to roll as far as tiny water droplets are going to have an impact on your ball, especially when you're putting That's why you need to clean your ball Every so often in the wind is a huge, crucial factor. And I was like, No one's doing this. So on a whim I just decided to start posting up on social media and the golf teams are, Oh, you, the coaches loved it. They reached out to me. They're like, I love how you're doing forecasts for all our tournaments and it's something I started doing for fun, but I've kind of thought about this. It's kind of like my dream job. There is no one that does this for a living. Sure, there's private meteorologists that do this behind the scenes, but how cool would it be to work for the PGA or Lib Tour or the Golf Channel and be able to go to all these tournaments, the browser up and not only explain to them, but the people watching at home how the weather's impacting their scores? Wow. That that's amazing. I had a colleague in in college. He did a couple of summer interns. This is back in the early nineties with the PGA. He did a lot of forecasting for the PGA on tour with them for a while. I learned a lot about golf and weather and obviously those big impacts when kind of obvious admittedly I would not have thought about to do first thing in the morning for the early tee times. But what other things are out there that aren't immediately obvious? Obviously, you want to get out of the way when there's lightning showing up, but outside from wind, lightning, rain, do what other kinds of environmental things are out there in the weather that that play into the game that may not be as obvious. So temperature so when it's actually above 95 degrees, your ball can travel farther. And when it's below either 55 or 45 degrees, your ball won't travel as far just due to the heat transfer between your club base and the ball, which not a lot of people realize when it's super hot outside. I notice my drives are a lot longer, my iron shots are a lot longer and when it's colder, I always thought it was just my body trying to conserve heat and everything and try and be more stiff. But it's actually just the air temperature not allowing the ball to travel as far you say. Is that more of a contact or is that more of the air moving to the the density of the ball, moving through the density air, or is that more of a control like with the club face and the ball? It's a little bit of both because you rely on that contact to give you all the energy to travel farther. And when there's not enough energy being transferred, you don't have as much energy to travel through the air. And then, you know, we've talked about this with baseball, too, I guess, as humidity comes into play as well. If the humidity levels are higher, I'm guessing the ball is probably going to travel higher, just like we talk about home runs going up and there's higher humidity levels in addition to the higher temperatures. I guess humidity plays a factor as well. Yes, Like yesterday when I was at work, I was on the car and there was a kids tournament and I was just noticing how high their shots were traveling. And even when I'm on the range, how high my ball is going, especially being from Houston where it's always humid, my shots are so incredibly high and I try to control it and get it back down. Because when your ball is higher in the air, you don't have as much control of where it's going. Whereas if you keep it kind of level, you have more of that control. And Peyton, what about what about altitude? How does that affect your game? So I went to Colorado last summer and I played golf and I have never hit a ball farther. I don't know if it was just luck or if it was the altitude. I never really looked into it, but I was pleasantly shocked by how far by drives were going, how high I was getting this into the air. So I believe altitude has played a role in it. I haven't really thought about it, especially I grew up under sea level in Oklahoma is relatively flat, but exactly like we know and I feel teens, when they go and play in Mexico City, they go to Denver to get their body immune to it. I think that altitude also does take a toll on your body itself, not just the sport. So what do you want to do after your you graduate? I mean, you doing a lot of weather communications on social media. Do you think you want to continue to go in to weather communications or do you think you might skew more toward the golf forecasting and getting in with with the golf organization? Have you made that decision yet? Are you still kind of keeping it all out there? I don't really know. I'm kind of just putting my feet into everything right now since I still have time out. Do you? I'm minoring in broadcast meteorology. Local news will always be there. I'd love to go back to the coast and talk about hurricanes. I'd love to stay in Oklahoma just with the severe weather here. But if the opportunity did present itself to excuse me, say, do some affiliate work and kind of freelancing with NBC Sports and the Golf Channel in the 2 hours, I would not turn that down. You said that your dad was an emergency manager. Is he still doing that now as well? No, he retired when I graduated high school. Both my parents retired from law enforcement and moved to Oklahoma. My mom's family is from the state, so they decided to come here and live out retirement life. Are you the first in your family to pursue the meteorology track? Yes. My brother is a project manager in the Dallas Fort Worth area, but I'm the weather nut. All right. Well, we will be back right after this break with more with Peyton Galli. And you're listening to Across the Sky. Welcome back. We are here with Peyton Galion and University of Oklahoma student, an avid golfer. Peyton, we're just so glad to have you on today. You know, I wanted to talk with you, too. When we met at the AMS broadcast conference, it was pretty quickly obvious that you and Ginger Zee from ABC have a pretty good relationship. She even had pictures of you in her speech that she was giving, which was pretty cool. So tell us a little bit about how that started and you know, kind of how it's going. So when I was in middle school, when I realized I wanted to do broadcast meteorology, you know, in the Houston area, it's a top ten market. There wasn't a lot of females and yes, there was females every station. Now obviously the presence is a lot better represented. But I was like, there's not really someone I could look up to that looks like me. And I remember coming home from school and the more tornado had just happened and I turn on my TV and the Houston stations were taking ABC coverage from Oklahoma City and I saw gender and I was like, That's who I want to be. She's a meteorologist. She's out in the field. She is reporting on what just happened. And so I just I wanted to be just like her. She was my idol. And then after my freshman year of high school, my family sort of planning a family vacation to New York. And at that time, ginger ale on Dancing with the Stars. And so my mom, on a whim, I didn't even know this. She emailed her. I was like, Hey, my daughter loves you. Basically, she wants you just like you. She wants to go to, Oh, you study meteorology, she wants you on a broadcast. And she responded. She was like, Yes, Dancing with the Stars will be over at that point. I can't wait to meet her. And so it was June 6th of 2016. We went, we are part of the outside audience for GMA, and Ginger came outside and she came up to me and she was like, Are you Peyton? And I was like, shell shocked. I was like, OMG. And I had a sign I made and it said, Hey, Ginger Cocker caged next to Coco, which is Houston. Galveston, right, are to New York. So that showed that I traveled from Houston to New York to be there and she signed it. And I still have it today, however many years later, seven years later. But what I thought would be just like a quick interaction turned into a mentorship the state and contact through it all. Harvey dumped 52 inches of rain in my hometown and threw out everything. She was checking up on me. She's like, How's your family? How are you doing? How are how's your neighborhood? And I was just sending her pictures of everything. And once I got to college, she I had I was like, I just want to do journalism with a minor meteorology. And she was like, You want to do this so on. Just stick with meteorology. It's going to be hard. I know it's hard. I've been through it, but you can do it. And so she's always been in my back pocket, just kind of pushing me and wanting me to succeed. And she is just someone I can talk to all the time. I texted her the other day all my news stuff we do nightly. I send her everything and I get feedback from her in just knowing that she is such an advocate for women in STEM. The next generation of female meteorologists. She is someone I admire so much and I'm so excited and happy. I know her. It is so wonderful to hear. She is tremendous and she has been a wonderful advocate, no question about that. I'm very happy to see somebody with her caliber at ABC. Let's go back a little bit. And you said that, you know, the hurricanes and your youth are really influenced. You do? Let's talk about that a little bit more. Are there two or three, you know, specific events, regardless of which hurricane they were, that kind of are etched in your consciousness, that that kind of led you a little further down this path? I would definitely say like in 2008 and Harvey in 2017, I just because it impacted me so much, my grandmother has a two story house on Galveston Bay and the entire first floor had to be gutted. And I remember there was a table that she had on the first floor and it had little angel statues because my grandfather had passed away the year before and at the table rose up and the five feet of water. And then it went right back down to where it was. And none of the angel statues fell over. And we could see, like on the table, all the debris and like chip marks where water had been. And so that was something that stuck out to me. And you still see it like today, there's these random things that state and whether that it's just mind boggling. But knowing Ike impacted me so much, my school district became one of the refuge school districts for all the Galveston kids to come to. We had to bring in portable buildings for the additional kids, even though my school took on water. And again, with Harvey, I woke up to a boat going down my street. Like, you don't see that on an everyday basis. And just knowing I was out of school for so long, my school was damaged once again. Every school in the school district was damaged. So many of my friends and principals and even our superintendent, their house flooded and there was there was so much you could do, but not enough at the same time. And everyone was just really nice to one another. Like it didn't matter where you came from, who you are, what you do, Everyone is just with one another and it sucks that it was a time of crisis, but seeing the aftereffects and going through that not one but multiple times just kind of makes hurricanes my favorite because everyone can talk about what they're like. But once you go through them and you're impacted by them, it's a different sort of feeling. Yeah, you know, it's probably the one good thing about these hurricanes is the way people do come together after the event passes. You know, everybody, you know, it seems like there's so much division especially you get on social media and all the arguments and bickering, but it seems to suddenly go away when they're saying that everybody can unite and focus on and recover from. Yeah, that is, you know, the silver linings. And people do seem to know out a little bit and are a little bit friendlier to each other. Bring it back to golf. I let's talk a little bit about, you know safety on the golf course. You know, of course when we're talking about thunderstorms but also we were talking about how good it is. You know, when it's hot and humid, your ball will travel farther. But think about golf. And I think the especially for people who don't play regularly, I mean, if you're playing a full 18 holes, you are out in the heat and humidity for quite a while. So let's let's talk a little bit about safety on the golf course, what you're going to be doing. So obviously lightning kind of the rule of thumb is 8 to 10 miles within the last lightning strike. Have the 30 minute really because lightning strike outside of any thunderstorm and you don't want to be walking around with 14 metal sticks in Iraq, Let's just say, jeez, number one priority. But definitely the heat. I mean, yesterday, Oklahoma was in an excessive heat warning and I was on the car selling drinks yesterday. And I was out there for hours and it was boring. Well, I had one of those towels around my neck to keep me cool, keep my neck cool. And I always wore those when I played. I'd have multiple and I'd switch them out after every few holes. And yesterday there was a tournament going on and so many kids were just dropping. They could not keep up because walking 18 holes is hard. The stamina of your body has to have if you're carrying a £50 bag or yours in pushcart, you're a sheet of £50 bag. It's so much more toll on your body and especially in the dry heat, you don't really realize you're adding as much, which means you can get dehydrated a lot faster. And walking 18 holes, that's about 4 to 5 hours of play. And if the pace of play is slower, that's an additional hour, making it six. And when you're outside for that long, it's crazy. I I'm not built up to as much as I used to, but when I was in high school, I was playing like ten tournaments a summer and it was no big deal to me at that point because I had paced myself so much. I had been drinking so much water. It was usual for me, but so many tournaments. I would go to girls and boys would drop out just because their body couldn't handle it. And it's not that we're pushing our bodies so much in this heat. It's just we are preparing enough because, yes, especially right now that massive heat wave going on from Oklahoma City down to Dallas, Houston, Arizona, it's crazy. Arizona's anything over close to 120 degrees. Now, El Paso's recording so many days above 100 degrees, it's just insane. And people don't think about the heat factor because they're like, oh, even though I'm driving a cart, it's fine. I was on a car yesterday for 6 hours and I was still sweating tremendously. I was downing water just to keep myself there and present, because then you deal with the mental side of golf, which is a whole nother spiraling event we can talk about. But when you are having the ongoing effects of heat illness, your mind starts to function differently and then you can lead down that low and that will start affecting your game. And I think the other thing that people forget about, you know, is when you're out on a golf course, there's usually not a lot of shade. There might be trees on the side, but where you are not going to get much shade. So, yeah, I the when it comes to heat, especially what we're dealing with this summer, I mean, I think you really can't underestimate it. The amount of time that you are in the sun to the elements and you know it it it's definitely something that we we try and studies, you know, like the you know, when you start feeling the impacts, you know, you really got to, you know, hopefully you do have a car that would help rather than walking the void holes. But you know, it just comes back to the general heat safety. If you can plan on, you know, playing in the early morning or the evening hours, that's going to be the way to go to avoid the hottest part of day when the sun is highest in the sky and yet keeping the water, the Gatorade handy and carry it with you and bring more than you think you're going to need. I think that's the best advice. And thanks so much for joining us. We really enjoyed having you online. And, you know, it was really awesome to hear a little bit too about weather and how it pertains to golf, because I think we all kind of learn something from that. So thanks so much for being here with us this week. We appreciate it. Yes. Thank you so much. All right. And if anyone wants to follow you or get any golf updates, do you still do that on your social media? Yes, all my social media is my TikTok, my Instagram, my Twitter, my Facebook. It's w X, which stands for weather with Peyton. Perfect. All right. Well, thanks so much, Tatum. Thank you. All right. Welcome back, guys. She was a real sweet girl, wasn't she? And she has got a very impressive, I think, future ahead of her with, you know, combining some of the two things that she loves and and just very smart. She seems very forward thinking as well. I mean, she's she's doing a lot of weather communications, science communications, golf communications, showing how these things merge on her social media accounts. You know, she's already made very good contacts with Ginger Zee, who's doing fabulous work at ABC, very bright future for her, no question. I think when I see the younger professionals like this, it makes me feel good that science communications, whether communicate actions, impacts those kinds of things. We're in good hands going forward. Yeah, absolutely. And I won't hold that against her too much that she's going to the University of Oklahoma. I went to the University of Texas at Austin and I met your love for you. So I was going to bite my tongue a little bit when she's talking about the IOU stuff, but they do have a good meteorology program. I'll acknowledge that it is a good school to go to for meteorology and I like that. You know, she's into golf. I do. I wish I could play golf more often, if you like. Always So busy now, but I'm in Chicago the long winter. Well, it's the brain for playing golf a little bit, but I do love playing golf. You know, when the weather is nice, it is fantastic. You know, just go out there and play a round of golf. But keep in mind, weather, safety, you know, when you hear that rumble of thunder, don't risk it. Don't try. They all just finish this hole. Now, it's not worth it because if you can hear thunder, you can get struck by lightning. So just go ahead. Go ahead to the clubhouse, grab yourself a drink, wait it out, and then wait 30 minutes after the last rumble thunder and then you can resume the game. And of course, remember, they need safety as well. So it was it was a great chat with her. And even though she's a shooter, it helped. But well, you know, as a Penn State or we also kind of have a love hate relationship with Oklahoma because we we understand that there are certain things they can do in Oklahoma that we can't do at Penn State. And we acknowledge that. But, you know, it's still Oklahoma. So sometimes I'm kind of with you. I have a lot of friends here, went to O.U. So it's all good. And I've been in the National Weather Center. It's gorgeous. I mean, it is gorgeous straight up. It's a wonderful facility and it's a wonderful program. The pain you say that. It's a little painful. It's a little painful. But you know what? If I'm going to go study tornadoes, man, that that's that's where you go. It just is. You know, I should have asked her to why she was so close to Bryan College Station growing up in Galveston right there. Texas A&M. Mm. Yeah. But she but she chose O.U. But I'm sure, you know, program wise, I mean, I don't you know, I'm sure that had something to do with it, but yeah, no, I going back to the light and safety to the thing that was kind of funny that she she's right is that, you know, you're walking around with much metal sticks in your in your hand. So, you know, probably don't want to be out there but but it was great to have her on and and coming up next week. After weather and golf, of course, we've got hurricane preparedness for homeowners. The oceans have also been crazy hot. We've heard a lot about that. I've got Zeke has father are from from multiple different agencies. He's climate scientist who does a lot of good work And looking at at the impacts of climate change in the oceans. Gardener Chase will be joining us in a few weeks. Ocean coastal safety. We got football and he coming up. Doug Collins is going to join us from the Korey Stringer Institute to talk about that. So there's lots lots of good stuff coming up in the next few weeks. That was good. And Joe will be back next week. I'm out on vacation next week, headed to Colorado with my my husband and my little kids. So I won't be here, but Joe will be back. So should be fun. All right. Well, thanks again for joining us this week on Across the Sky podcast. And we will catch you next time around.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Whether you already live near the coast or are traveling from the interior of the U.S. to visit an ocean this summer, it's always important to be safe and aware of your surroundings. Randy Townsend is the chief of the Harvey Cedars, New Jersey, Beach Patrol and an accomplished surfer. He discusses how to spot potential dangers lurking beneath the surface, the differences between rip currents and undertow, the best time of day to swim as well as stories from his time catching waves as a surfer. We want to hear from you! Have a question for the meteorologists? Call 609-272-7099 and leave a message. You might hear your question and get an answer on a future episode! You can also email questions or comments to podcasts@lee.net. About the Across the Sky podcast The weekly weather podcast is hosted on a rotation by the Lee Weather team: Matt Holiner of Lee Enterprises' Midwest group in Chicago, Kirsten Lang of the Tulsa World in Oklahoma, Joe Martucci of the Press of Atlantic City, N.J., and Sean Sublette of the Richmond Times-Dispatch in Virginia. Episode transcript Note: The following transcript was created by Adobe Premiere and may contain misspellings and other inaccuracies as it was generated automatically: Welcome, everybody to the Across the Sky podcast, Lee Enterprises National Weather Podcast. New episodes come out every Monday. Hope you all enjoy your 4th of July. It got a little dicey there with the 4th of July hot dog eating contest. Of course, that was our last episode on Across the Sky. They were in a lightning. The for, I think was the first time ever. But they they came through this week. Our episode here a little bit different. We're not talking about hot dogs. We're talking about the water and we're talking about ocean safety and making sure that you're enjoying whether it's the bay, the ocean, and making sure you're staying safe as well. Being that it is July and August, we're all taking off. We're all going on vacation. So we have Randy Townsend. He has the Harvey Cedars, New Jersey, lifeguard chief, also an internationally known surfer, to talk all about that. But we have Kirsten Kirsten lying back on the podcast as well. She is joining us after a couple of months away on maternity leave. Kirsten, it's great to have you back. How's it going? How is the family? Well, thanks. You know, it's good to be back. It's good to get kind of back in the saddle and start working again. And, you know, being here with the podcast, I'm happy. Glad I missed it. Missed you guys. And doing this every week. And things are going good here in the house. I mean, it's a little chaotic. We just added our third kid to the mix. So that's, you know, it's a lot to juggle. But overall, everything's going very, very good. We're pretty blessed here. Awesome stuff. You know, we we certainly missed you in your way, but we know you were, you know, enjoying some time with the family as well. With that being said, we're going to get right into our interview here with Randy Townsend on the other side. And I am pleased to have on Randy Townsend today to talk all about marine and ocean and wave safety. Randy is a friend of mine. He is based right here in New Jersey. He is the beach patrol chief for the Harvey Cedars Beach Patrol. He's also been a competitive surfer going all across the planet. Really. You can check out some of his videos on YouTube. And he is an ocean safety expert. Randy, great to talk to you here. We're talking the year right after the 4th of July. How are you feeling now that we're really getting into peak, You know, summertime, people headed to the shore. How are you feeling? How your crew's feeling over in Harvey Cedars? Thanks for the wonderful introduction, Joe Tickled to be here again with you on your podcast and another interview as well, how I'm feeling and how our staff is feeling here today. We're absolutely elated to be up there on the beach providing, you know, public safety to, you know, the public up there on a daily basis. Conditions, obviously, you would know the best since you are a meteorologist. Saba In my eyes, we just turned the corner here for us a little bit late into the game. Waters finally warming up here today and the seven seats up there on the beach. So we're absolutely elated to be up there, especially on such a beautiful day. Yeah. And, you know, we have a big Jersey flair with this, but it has been it's been chilly until about the middle of June. And then we did turn the corner and finally the smoke is gone, too. Yeah, you know, just for people because we have people listening here all across the country. Tell us where Harvey Cedars is and how big of an area of beach you cover and how many people you have on your beach patrol. Harvey Cedars is a stretch of a beautiful seashore community down here on Long Beach Island. It's roughly 2.2 miles long. For tip. Tip are bookends here. And RV Cedars are also Municipality of Long Beach Township on both ends. One is North Beach, which is to our south and to our north. We have ever so much loveliness, and that's where we're at here on Long Beach Island, roughly six miles at sea from the Garden State Parkway to as well here in central New Jersey. Gotcha. And you've been with the beach patrol for almost all of your life, Brandy? Yeah, 25 years. You know, it's been quite some time. I haven't worked for any other agency. And I am elated to be here for another summer season, you know, occurring on an elevated level. As the lifeguard chief for our six new lifeguards that we have here on an annual basis, perfecting lives here at Jersey Shore. And Randy, you know, we wanted to talk with you a little bit, too, about rip currents. They've been in the news a lot lately. Could you just kind of give us an overview on what rip currents are and then, you know, why they're so dangerous to, you know, to swimmers? Yeah. So a rip currents, a powerful channel of water rushing away from the shoreline. You know, it's usually caused by, you know, floating wind and, you know, currents that we've had from other swells that are in the area for that day were that have asked through our region as well. They can also be caused by tide, you know, large surf, so forth. And so and I read somewhere to Randy, I don't know if you know the answer to this, but, you know, there again, there have been a lot of there has been a lot of news about rip currents. Of course, there's been a lot of people that have been either saved or have unfortunately passed from it. But, you know, to put it into perspective, you know, my husband is terrified of sharks. I mean, just downright terrified. But I read somewhere that there are twice as many deaths from rip currents than there are from shark bites each year. Do you know if that happens to be true or not? Yes, I think, you know, statistically speaking, you can definitely say that there is a higher chance or probability that you would being swept away in a rip current and would be, you know, bitten by a shark or even, you know, fatally injured by. Sure. Hey, Randi. Sean, here down in Virginia, a lot of times I go to the North Carolina Outer Banks as well. I spent some time, the Jersey Shore, I love the Atlantic Coast. I was introduced to rip currents long, long ago, back in the seventies, when I was a lad. But for people who don't go very frequently, what's a good way? They can spot a rip current before they go out in the water? Are there any kind of telltale signs yet? You know, some telltale signs would be, you know, discolored water. If you're looking at the ocean and appear to be you know, we were green. You also see, you know, white water or sand mixed throughout the water, and it will be rushing directly away from the shoreline. And that discolored water and, you know, extend thousands of feet past where the actual waves are breaking on the sandbar and, you know, up to a mile or so, too, as well, from really strong rip currents that are out there on some of the most extreme days. How wide are the rip currents? Because oftentimes here you swim perpendicular to the current to get out of it. But but how wide can some of these these currents be? It would have to, you know, depend on the biochemistry, The other water contour of the, you know, sand and shelf that's there. Also, there's other variables that, you know, could come into play. Rock jetties, Piers, you know, storm drain, so forth and such. And that would depend on a, you know, case by case area on where you live. But they can be very wide. We'd see, you know, you know, two, three, four blocks wide, some instances where we have, you know, gaps in the sandbar, so forth and such. And if there's equals next to, you know, piers or storm drains, those ones can tend to be wider and more extreme, too. The water pressure builds up against those, you know, solid features that are permanent there. Do they tend to be more more common near jetties? Yes. I would like to think that they would be more prevalent near, you know, big structures in the water considering, you know, the tide and or swell direction is going to run one way or another off the beach. And it's just going to have increased pressure on those areas. You know, as you now, if you're piling water up in the corner of a tub, it's got to go somewhere else now. Yes, definitely more prevalent in those areas. Rock piles generally support rain. You know, you know, here on the East Coast, we got lifeguards are usually patrolling up and down the coast here. You know, that's not always the case depending on where you are and especially on the time of year. Right. Once they get the September yellow, even here in Jersey, you know, we're we're really reducing the amount of beach patrol coverage we do have here. We've had 62 deaths, unfortunately, due to something in the surf zone. Yeah. When you think about the weather aspect of things, you know, for people who are, you know, they're going to the beach, there might not be a lifeguard around there living a part of a country where there's not what kind of weather conditions, you know, are you looking for, you know, that saying, hey, you know, this is a day with a high risk of rip currents. You can apply this principle to any aspect of your life. The one most important here that we're talking about today is, you know, rip, current, rip currents and, you know, creating awareness around those. If you're unaware or you're uncertain of the conditions, if you don't have an experience, you know, being at the shore, whether it may be the New Jersey Shore or North Carolina or Florida, where you may be in the world, you know, if you're onshore, you always want to ask somebody, most municipalities, towns and cities have social media outlets that have weather up information available on rip currents above and beyond that, You know, when in doubt, I would ask questions to somebody who would be close to me if there wasn't a lifeguard within the vicinity. But if it's, you know, obviously rough, there's definitely going to be an elevated chance of rip currents in the area. You know, you can basically look at the surf. If there's waves coming in, you can almost guarantee that. And on any given day, you're going to find rip currents at some point throughout that day, Best thing you can do is educate and inform yourself prior to heading to the shore destinations in the summer months or whether you may be visiting, you know, an area that has warm water in the winter, you know, educate, inform yourself on rip currents and awareness, because with awareness you have a choice whether to go out or not or find that safe. So to know when you guys are going out, you know, in the morning, you're setting up your stand and you have the flags, you know, you have the red flags and the yellow flags. Are you actually picking spots that are the safest places at the sea or are you picking spots that might be just down the street? That's an accessible point for people. Yes, That's a that's a great point of conversation here, Joe. You know, we have morning muster every day where all of our lifeguards gather collectively and, you know, exchange information. A lot of this information comes down from our management staff to inform and educate our lifeguards, the employees, the individuals who are in charge, you know, public safety on a daily basis. So allow them to occur on an elevated level for the end user and anything we can do to inform and educate public through our social media outlets or, you know, one on one conversation or by our signage on the back of our lifeguard stands to get the message out there for, you know, the conditions at and that day, once we have this information, you know collectively amongst our group, first thing in the morning, our management staff will work hand in hand with the lifeguards up there on the beach for proper, you know, flag placement each set up to ensure the safest area for swimming and recreational activities as well. So in short, we're not just, you know, passing flags and, you know, the sand on some random spot on any given beach on any given day. There's a method to our madness and we're very meticulous about it to ensure, you know, the public safety. So I grew up going down to the Gulf Coast, I grew up in Texas, and so we were in that part of the country and I felt like the term undertow was used quite frequently. How were those similar or different? Do people get those confused a lot? Yes, they do get it. They do get them confused. Undertow would be considered or classified ads. You know that down sucking motion that you would have from a wave passing by you, but you also can be sucked underneath by a very strong recurrent to if there's any structure underneath you too as well. So that same type of sensation, although undertow would be that, you know, when you're getting pulled under from wave that as asked if the water's actually going down towards the bottom of the ocean. And again, you know, during rip currents, too, if there's some type of underwater structure that would indicate that that type of crime is there as well. Hey, Randy, is there a particular good or bad time of day to be in the water with regard to water safety? And a lot of people want to go in early in the morning or late in the evening. You know, tides changing, coming in, coming out, or is there any any logic to that at all in terms of this time? Traditionally as good or bad? Yeah. I would like to start off by saying the best time you can, you know, enjoy the ocean, what weather doesn't matter what beach that you're at, you know, it's going to be between the hours at 10 a.m. 5 p.m. when lifeguards are staffed typically on most beaches throughout the country, often we do get water rescue calls after 5 p.m. and 4:10 a.m. You know, I would advise obviously not swimming prior to lifeguards being on duty and or after they've left for the day. You know, some beach patrol agencies offer extended hours or about 6 p.m. as well as some other agencies offer, you know, roving patrols up and down the beach like we do. And so about 8 p.m. ever again. When in doubt, go out and actually can, you know, swim with somebody who's a proficient swimmer, know your limits, you know, definitely don't want to be out there by yourself with no beach. Awesome. All good stuff so far. Randy, we're going to take a brief break and then the other side, we're going to have more about rip currents, the surf zone and all good things. You're talking about the water with Randy Townsend, chief of lifeguards here in enhancing. You're listening to the Cross. Unknown The Sky podcast. We are back with the Across the Sky podcast. New episodes drop wherever you get your podcast every Monday. It's also on your favorite news website as well. We are part of LEA Enterprises over 70 newsrooms across the United States, including here in Atlantic City, Ron Bass, Randy Townsend, also in the process of Atlantic City coverage area chief of lifeguards here in Harvey Cedars. Randi, let me ask you, you know, what got you interested in the water? Oh, my my dad, my dad and my mom. I had the fortunate opportunity to grow up a stone's throw away from the bay and beach and a town that resides, you know, just slightly to the south of where I'm currently working here in Harvey Cedars. I was born and raised in Surf City, New Jersey, Long Beach Island, where I still resides there with my family. And for people who don't know Long Beach Island, you know, I don't know hundreds of thousands of people during the summer and then during the winter, you know, it's really only a couple thousand that are there. It's a much quieter place during the winter, like many places along the northeast coast here. But a beautiful place to just visit out your Barnet Lighthouse on the northern tip of the island as well. Some some really good sites here. Randi, let me ask you this. You know, you mentioned just on the other side of this, the first half about, you know, the best time to swim is when, you know, there are lifeguards present. A question I have for you is, you know, a lot of times you're seeing surfers out there at seven, eight in the morning before the lifeguards are present. You know, you're someone who serves and is a lifeguard. So how do you how do you balance out, you know, the fact that, you know, surfers want to get out there at certain times, but we're also trying to keep everybody who's in the water safe as well. That is, you know, a double edged sword that I do walk as a lifeguard chief here. But it's very, very yes, the number of individuals who are enjoying the beach on a daily basis, it's general the general public for that that matter. We do have surfing areas outside of our flags where the safe swimming zone is. You know, typically the sandbar where the safe swimming zone is, though, is also where the great waves are because of the sandbar itself, too, as well. But given, you know, the 2.2 miles of beach here, there's no doubt in my mind since you can surf outside the flags on any beach here in our seniors, that, you know, there's more than an ample, you know, space for everybody to enjoy, you know, whether it's just swimming or bathing or if you're out there on a kayak, stand up paddleboard or a surfboard like like the Job for Tots. Well. Yeah. And Randy is an illustrious surfer who has traveled all across the world surfing. Randy, I don't know if you can give us an elevator pitch of your surfing experience, but if you could try to boil it down, just explain where you've been and you know, some of the awards and accolades you had over the year, you could check them out on YouTube. You can type in his name. You see a bunch of a bunch of videos there as well. But but this man that we're speaking to is somewhat of a legend in the surfing community. Thanks, Joe, for the awesome introduction to that other aspect of my life. Naturally, somewhat. Thank you. Thank you. Yet, you know, I was recently inducted to the New Jersey Surfing all fame at the age of 44. I work with multitude of 501 seat threes, you know, to assist kids with special needs and learning through surf therapy. I also run Northeast Conference, the National Scholastic Surfing Association, which links, you know, schooling with surfing, which is really, really gratifying. I am I still search team coach for the iSchool that I attended and my youth over there at Southern Regional across the bridge at Manahawkin won numerous pro surfing events here in the state and throughout the country and internationally. Internationally traveled the surf that's the way through Southeast Asia, Africa, the Caribbean, Central America. I mean, been around the world for sure. My favorite favorite place in Surfers Southeast Asia, that little chain of islands about a hundred miles off the coast, all the mental wise and internship, some of the world's best surf there for sure. That sounds absolutely phenomenal, man. So I want you to riff on that a little bit more. But the other thing I wanted to to get for my own edification, what are some of the bigger differences between the Atlantic beaches in terms of waves and sand and like versus the Pacific Coast? Beaches, waves, sand and periods and wave heights and that kind of stuff. And then go on, man, and tell me about this beautiful beaches in South East Asia. So I want to hear all about that. All right. So differences between East Coast and West Coast, I'll start off with the the most obvious, you know, typically up, up and down the eastern shore here, except with the exception of the northeast and doing when we pretty much have, you know, sand covered beaches, there is a structure until you get up into like Long Island, New York, out there on Montauk, Rhode Island, you know, Maine and those areas up there in New England, they have a lot more structure up there and do have similar characteristics to the wave types that are out. California. You know, on the other end of the spectrum, on the West Coast, there is a lot more structure leading into the water. There's, you know, wait breaks where it actually has, you know, rock or cobblestone shells that leads into the water where the waves will actually, you know, peel in symmetry down the rock cobblestone reefs or shells out there. We typically don't get that in, you know, our waters here in New Jersey and south. We won't find that again until you get to the Caribbean and respectably up in the Northeast, up and new went above and beyond that, differences between the East Coast and the West Coast as far as it pertains to, you know, small forecasting and the actual Sir and Joe, you'd be able to comment on this one too, as well. Is that typically here, you know, when we get storms, they're coming from land based here in New Jersey and throughout the East Coast as well, whereas out on the West Coast and in California, the storms that they get out there, you know, are coming from ocean to the shoreline. So there's a huge difference in, you know, the actual quality of surf when it arrives and how quickly, you know, it dissipates as it needs to as well. So on the West Coast, you know, when you get a storm system coming in, you'll have a gradual increase in surf with pristine surfing conditions until the actual storm makes landfall on the West Coast. Whereas out here on the East Coast, conversely, you would have, you know, the storm system typically being coming from the land, going out into the ocean where you would have really rough conditions until the surf or storm passed where and then you would have, you know, very clean, pristine conditions for surfing as the storm departed. You're on the East Coast and it would dissipate very, very rapidly, whereas on the West Coast, the swell, the K would, you know, so to speak, stick around for a lot longer due to the fact that the storm has been generating waves out the ocean for that much more of an extended period of time? You know, typically speaking, again, you know, I've had extensive experience out there on the West Coast with the, you know, Rocky Mountain being so, so close in proximity to the shore there. You know, and the fact that the water temperatures annually are much more on a daily basis out there, they get a lot less wind than we typically do out here on the East Coast, you know, and respectively. The converse is also true. You're on the East Coast as well due to, you know, the multitude of convection that we get all throughout the country. Here on the East Coast, we had typically our much windier days, more powerful sea breezes and storms, too, as well when they are prevalent in the areas that we are enjoying. I think you covered it all there, Randy. I don't know if I even need to chime in on that one. You know, I tried to make it clear and concise as possible without getting into too much detail. I'm sure there's a plethora of other, you know, differences between East and West Coast surfing. But a few of the most obvious I had mentioned where you. You don't really get as many of those epic days on surf line out on the East Coast as you might on the West Coast. Now, definitely they aren't as prevalent, but when we do get them, they are absolutely world class. Otherwise, I would have moved away from New Jersey a long time ago. So, Randy, tell us, you know, if you've never been to the beach before, right. Or you're one of those. Yeah, I was. People might go once a year, right? You're taking your trip down? Yeah. You're flying down to Florida, you're coming to New Jersey, whatever. What advice would you give to make sure that you know, you're enjoying the beach, you know, and staying safe, too? If you're stepping on the sand for the first time in years. So if I'm coming down to the Jersey Shore for the first time and I haven't been here for a long time, I would, you know, immediately reach out to, you know, the this story that I am going to be visiting. They would be the most up to date, you know, source of information that it would pertain to the conditions that and being up on the ocean front. I want to believe at this point in time with the, you know, technology that we have, everybody's moving forward at the same rate to be able to provide this information to the public on a daily basis, you know, above and beyond that, you know, NOAA's a great resource as well as a multitude of other weather media outlets out there that can provide you with, you know, current up to date information on out to ABC. Raney, anything else you want to add here before we wrap it on? The most important thing you can do is just, you know, be aware of your surroundings and, you know, know your limits. And when you're on shore now, seek out the individual who may be able to provide you with the pertinent information that you're looking for and or point in the right direction to be able to acquire that information to ensure that, you know, you have a safe beach standing, you return to your residence at the end of the day. And if anybody wants to follow you, follow, see what's going on with Harvesters Beach Patrol. Where can they do that? Yeah, social media at Harvey Cedars Beach Patrol, as well as you know, on Facebook to know were there as well. Harvey Cedars Police Department does a great job of, you know, following up with our tweets and posts and social media posts that we have out there to inform and educate the public, make them aware of the conditions here. It's about one more quick thing before we go. What what's lightning protocol? You know, thunderstorm protocol there at the beaches, Randi. Yeah. So if lightning is within proximity of us, we you know, there are beaches and don't return to the beach for 30 minutes from the last lightning strike within proximity of, you know. Where we're at. Awesome. Well, Randi, thanks again for hopping on and talking about this, my man. It was great to have you on. And we hope you and everybody in Harvey Cedars has an awesome and safe rest stop. We'll talk to you soon. Thank you so much for having me again. Speaker 6 Looking beyond the atmosphere, here's Tony Reyes with your astronomy outlook, Morris points the way to Regulus, the brightest star in Leo this week. Look west. After sunset, you'll see Venus. It's at its brightest this week up and to the left, look for a slightly orange point of light. That's Mars, some 211 million miles away. Now, the White Star, that's about a finger's with blue. Speaker 6 That's Regulus. It's also known as Alpha Leo because it's the brightest star in that constellation. Regulus is the bottom most star in the backwards question mark that forms the front of Leo. These subsections of constellations, they're known as Asterisms things like the Southern and northern crosses, as well as the big and little dippers. They're all asterisms constellations. On the other hand, those are more official things. Speaker 6 The modern list of 88 constellations was recognized by the International Astronomical Union, the professional organization of astronomers back in 1922. Few years later, borders were drawn around each one of those constellations, and it's those borders that serve astronomers By defining neighborhoods in the sky, they can be used to easily describe where new discoveries can be found. That's your astronomy outlook. Speaker 6 Follow me at RTP hockey for more spacey stuff like this. Randi, as always, good. Got to speak to you. Very knowledgeable and articulate as well. And really good breakdown of Atlantic and Pacific coach beaches and there their differences when it comes to the swell in the waves and surfing and the storms and all of that. You know I feel like, you know, if you're in lifeguarding or surfing, it's almost like, you know, you know, half weather already, you're halfway to being a meteorologist, you know, and vice versa. So it was nice to have Randi on and, you know, talk about what to look for, you know, for rip currents in the surf zone. Shawn, what do you think? Yeah, it's great. I mean, you know, meteorology, oceanography there entwined from the get go, that's for sure. So that's always nice to have have those two kind of things merged together when we do a podcast. But yeah, I mean, I kind of intrinsically kind of thought that idea about the Pacific Waves versus the Atlantic waves, but it was good to hear from somebody who's lived it, who has seen it. And the other thing I was really glad you brought this up, Kirsten, about about safety. Right. We hear so much about onshore rigs, but rip currents are way, way more of a threat than sharks are to people at the beach. And I think any time we can kind of repeat that message, it's the rip currents y'all need to sharks. I think that's a good idea. You know, And before we did this podcast, I went online to just kind of do a little bit of researching about rip currents, too. And they Noah has a good video out there in case you do plan on heading out and doing some swimming. They have a good you know, sometimes I feel like people always say make sure that you swim parallel to the shore. And I feel like sometimes in my head I'm like, would like parallel perfect. Like, you know, you're trying to put it all together and really think about it. But if you go to know his website or kind of Google, you know, rip currents. Noah They have a nice little video that they made, a little animation that shows exactly what to do in case you do get caught in one of those situations. So it's worth the it's worth giving it a look in case. For some reason I happened to go swimming on one of the Gulf Coast or one of the, you know, Atlantic or Pacific coasts over the next couple of years. Now I feel prepared. Are you saying you're not planning on making a visit to the Atlantic or Pacific Coast person? Maybe not to go swimming anytime soon? You know, it's so different. The idea where you know, where you are and what your experiences are with the beach or with the mountains or anything, you know, like like for me, like going to the mountains, like is just like a foreign concept. The little mountains in New Jersey don't count, but going to the beach is like, Yeah, everybody does that, but it's vice versa. Depending on where you are. All right. So good episode with Randy here. Kirsten, you're working on our next podcast guest coming up next Monday. Tell us a little bit about what we have going on. Yeah, so kind of playing off of this too. You know, we were talking about how, you know, weather impacts, of course, the ocean then and and and surfing and, you know, it also impacts sports. And we've talked about that a bunch in the past too, I think. And and so what we have going on, we're going to be speaking with an OSU student. She is she's a really cool girl. You know, I'm really very inspired by her, too. I think she's doing a lot already just at her young age, but she is also an avid golfer and with oh, you want a golf scholarship initially, too, and has put the two together. Her two loves golf and weather. And so we're going to hopefully sit down and chat with her a little bit on, you know, how much the weather does impact the golf game. Awesome. Well, we're looking forward to that. We have the open championship coming up, too. So good timing as well. But we are going to wrap it up for this week's episode of the Across the Sky podcast. Remember new episodes every Monday. Check it out wherever you get your podcast and we'll be with you soon. On behalf of Sean Sublette, Kirsten Lange and Matt Holiner, who cannot be with us this week, I'm Joe Martucci. We'll talk to you soon.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This week we're celebrating Independence Day, which means it's time for cookouts, fireworks and, of course, Nathan's Famous International Hot Dog Eating Contest. In celebration of the big event that happens each year on the corner of Surf and Stillwell Avenues in the Coney Island neighborhood of Brooklyn, New York, we have special guest George Shea, chairman of Major League Eating and the energetic public address announcer for the contest.  Since this is a program about weather, climate, and meteorology, the hosts discuss how weather comes into play for the competitors such as Joey Chestnut, who has won 15 of the last 16 competitions, and defending women's champion Miki Sudo. Shea also talks about how he prepares for the big event as well as how the weather plays into his wardrobe decisions.  We want to hear from you! Have a question for the meteorologists? Call 609-272-7099 and leave a message. You might hear your question and get an answer on a future episode! You can also email questions or comments to podcasts@lee.net. About the Across the Sky podcast The weekly weather podcast is hosted on a rotation by the Lee Weather team: Matt Holiner of Lee Enterprises' Midwest group in Chicago, Kirsten Lang of the Tulsa World in Oklahoma, Joe Martucci of the Press of Atlantic City, N.J., and Sean Sublette of the Richmond Times-Dispatch in Virginia. Episode transcript Note: The following transcript was created by Adobe Premiere and may contain misspellings and other inaccuracies as it was generated automatically: Happy 4th of July, everyone from our Across the Sky podcast team. I'm meteorologist Joe Martucci. Join me from Chicago is Matt Holiner. We have a maybe our most unique episode of the Across the Sky podcast. We managed to snag an interview with George Shea. You may not know the name, but you definitely know his suit in the hat at the Nathan's 4th of July eating contest. He is the chairman of Major League Eating. He is the host of the contest. We have him on to talk all things hot dogs. Sean Sublette, who is the meteorologist at the Richmond Times-Dispatch. He balked at this interview. I don't think the hot dogs agreed with him there. Kirsten Lang is on maternity leave, so she has a little say. What do we think, Matt? A more valid reason for not being on the podcast? Because I knew I knew we were in trouble when when this all started, when we were talking about our sports betting episode, how weather impacts sports and you brought up, you know, hey, what about the hot dog eating contest? What about major league eating? And as soon as you the hot dog eating contest, the look on Shawn's face over Zoom is a record. This over Zoom is priceless or a look of horror you describe. It just crossed his face. And I was like, I don't think he's going to do that episode. Right. So only the strong survive here. Matt and I, we're here and we'll just get into it. Let's talk to George Shea about the Nathan's hot dog eating contest. All right. And we are here. A 4th of July is coming up on Tuesday. And when I think 4th of July, the first thing I think of is the Nathan's hot dog eating contest. So who better to have on than the chairman of Major League eating and the host of the Nathan's hot dog eating contest, George Shea? George, it is great to be here with you. Happy early 4th of July to you. How you feeling? And as we get into the event here, that will be coming up on Tuesday. Well, thank you very much for having me, both of you. I appreciate that. We're very excited. Obviously, the tension high, the 4th of July is on us, but we're you know, every year it's crazy. You're up and down. You have different things to deal with. But we are ready to rock and roll. And I think it's going to be a great event, always a great event. On the corner of Surf and Stillwell in Coney Island. I was there in 2011 when Sonya Thomas won the women's event. Joey Chestnut was doing his thing. There. It was. It wasn't too hot that day, but it was humid. I remember we had about a mix of sun and clouds with some haze. You did a great job, George, as always. You know, I I'll say this in the intro, too, but kind of a personal hero of mine. No one hypes up a crowd quite like you, George. So it's truly an honor to have you here today on the Across the Sky podcast. I want to get into why I'm having you here, because last year and the year before, I was hearing on the Twitter verse, you know, the weather is perfect. Well, Joey beat the record. Couple of our sports betting friends were wondering about this, too, just with the conditions being so perfect. He had 70 I believe he had the record in 2021 with 76 hot dogs and buns. Did he do it in 2022? But I said, hey, you know what? Maybe there is something to this when it comes to weather in the hot dog eating contest. So my question to you is, what are the athletes saying? Is there a something to this? Is there a correlation? Well, there absolutely is. So there are a couple of factors, but weather is certainly very high among them. So ideally, you want it nice and cool and not too humid and certainly not sort of oppressively hot in 2020 because of COVID. We did it inside with a temperature controlled environment. It was not particularly cool, it was not hot, but we had to we had to air conditioned a big warehouse in the top of Nathan's at Coney Island and know a big space. So it was okay, but it wasn't great. But everybody said, you know, you need an asterisk because it's indoors and in, you know, an environment that's controlled. In 2021, we just happened to have perhaps the most beautiful 4th of July ever. I've been doing this since 1988. And, you know, we've had all variety of weather circumstances, but it was about 74 degrees. It was a little breezy, which just kind of cool and lovely, an early June day kind of situation. And the audience was just like, this is perfect. But the eaters obviously were in really good shape as well and performed as you might expect, However, last year, hotter, less comfortable. But there's another issue that affects all of this, and that is how long have the hotdogs been prepared and how long have they been waiting for the eaters? Last year I noticed that the hotdogs came up early. That allows the buns to dry out a little and it allows the hotdogs to tighten up. It is equal across all competitors at fair, but it does slow the eaters down. So there are a bunch of different factors that are at play. Okay, George, so since you mentioned the buns being dry, not being a good thing, I'm wondering if rain might actually be a good thing. You know, I often see people watching these dunking those buns and the soda and the water. So if they're already a little bit damp from some rain, would that be a good thing or is there a threshold? Is there a perfect amount of rain? Is there too much rain or too little rain or is no rain really bad? So I think on balance, for the eaters, rain would be good if it was a light rain. So and then how long are the dogs out there, etc.. So if there's a torrential downpour, that's going to be a problem. But I think you're right. If it's not super dry and super hot and if there were almost like a light drizzle, that would make the buns easier to meet if it was really, really raining cats and dogs, you're going to have a situation where the buttons are just mush and then you have to manage those that would actually slow you down and I one of my favorite contests ever, I think we only did it once was the hard boiled egg eating contest in Kentucky. And it was absolutely torrential downpour. And the eggs, the hard boiled eggs were served in a tin. It would be like a cake tin about two and a half inches tall around the side, you know, the straight one. And there was so much rain that it was literally going over the sides of the of the tin. But that was not an issue because an egg is not going to absorb a hard boiled egg. It's not going to absorb any water. So it was just a very dramatic event. And Miki Sudo eight 104 hard boiled eggs. Joey Chestnut eight 144 But really all eyes will be on the weather on the fourth and it does matter. I don't think I've ever a morning like six hardboiled eggs in one setting. So I mean 140 is I'll keep dreaming about it. How what's with that. Why George are you talking to any meteorologist before the hot dog eating contest. What is your weather diet going into an on the 4th of July itself? Well, as you can imagine, I am never not nervous about rain and rain. Look, this is this is what I say to everybody, including myself. And it's a lot I don't care if the weather's good or bad. We're just going to hold this event and it's all good, right? We're going to get the media. We're going to have an audience. They come in the rain. It is they in fact, a lot of people just sort of say, well, what are we going to do today? We can't go to the beach. Let's go to the outdoor concerts. We get a very big crowd. But it matters to me a lot. I worry constantly. I always tell myself not to do it. But I started looking at the long term forecast and I read over it. So it is always bothers me. And and the reason for that, to be honest. Right. I'm sharing this is a safe place. And it is a safe place. Yes, absolutely. We've done this many times on the podcast. I can be vulnerable here. I hope so. The reason is because it's my favorite day of the year, because I love doing the event that is about a two and a half hour show. I do all these silly things, you know, Rap with Badlands Booker. I cannot sing. I often sing a song like Hold On by Wilson Phillips with a backup band, thinking of doing Fernando this Year by Abba with a backup. And I cannot sing. But can you hear the drums, Fernando? I mean, how can you? It's so emotional, but so the event itself for me is really fun and it is much more fun if it's sunny and everybody is into it. So, you know, the event will go on, the event will not be affected by the weather ultimately. But for me, the show would be because it's not quite as fun, it's not beautiful. So so that's my own personal take on it. On balance, again, I don't think the the eaters much care unless it's super, super hot, which is very difficult. So I'm guessing the hot dog eating contest has never been delayed because of weather and would there ever be a situation where you would delay it? So here's the thing. We had lightning sweeping in over the New York Harbor one year and ESPN is there. And there was a great deal of concern that we would not be able to do it. And what happened is we were able to get the contest and this would have been, oh, boy, it's somewhere around 2000, eight, nine, ten, 11. So somewhere in there, that sort of earlier, you know, a good 15 years ago, we were able to get the contest in. And then as soon as we finished it, it, it crashed, right. Like where everybody's running, it rained, but we got the contest event. And I've been in Buffalo one time and we do the chicken wing contest in on, on Labor Day and that's a great amount. You get about ten 20,000 people. It's a great festival and really fun. And then we saw and everybody could see it. We were at the baseball stadium up there. These storm clouds that looked like out of a movie, right. Like Thor was coming and, you know, like and I said, the garlic bread and all, but we got our event. And then and once again, everybody ran and it just opened up. But we we would have to postpone if there were any threat from like yeah I think you're, you're pretty blessed to be in Coney Island for this because you know you don't always you will get some hot day but being by the water you know water taps usually in the sixties and Coney Island 4th of July never gets super high. Can get humid, though. I'm wondering what you know, what was your worst weather experience of what year that was? Was it what you were just saying in 2007, 2010 timeframe? And then the best one that you had as well, you mentioned it, the best one was 2021. That was just a gorgeous day. That was like a day. Do you know what's funny? I just you know, over Memorial Day, we had absolutely stupendous weather in the New York region. It was just lovely beyond any any major. And it stayed that way for days on end. Please forget the siren if you can hear it. Where I mean, I'm in New York City and the so it was like that on the 4th of July. It's kind of like one of those days where you go, you got to enjoy this day. So that's very rare on the 4th of July to have perfect weather like that. I would say the worst days and I think most of them probably came in the 2000 teens where had super, super hot 90 plus. Right. As you said, you usually get a a certain amount of movement and breeze off of the ocean. It makes it a little bit better. But you can get these hot days and those are very difficult for the eaters and for the audience and for me, for that matter. But but I'm paid to be there. So it's just put on the hat and go. But, you know, these people are out there in this brutal weather for hours and hours because the show, they start lining up at about 730 or eight and then the show starts at 1030 and the men's contest is at 1140. Right. So that's you know, they're there in that sun. And it can be very difficult for, you know, I'm wondering for you, before I toss the break, you are in the suit and the hat. You must get a little hot in there on 4th of July. So I have learned I generally and this is this is sad as I get older, I'm a little bit more affected by the heat. I hate to say it in my eyes, by the way, are hot, but generally heat does not bother me. It really doesn't like some people just really are uncomfortable in the heat sweat a lot, but they're just generally you get malaise and everything. Generally. That has not been the case for me. So I can endure it. But I learned never wear a blue shirt if you're in an environment like that, because if you perspire a lot, it will look atrocious. So I learned in like 2002 or something, three just always wear a white shirt because you'll never notice it. And you I don't ever remember using anything other than shirt. Yes. But that's why I. That's right. Because I've gone for for two decades with a white shirt. I learned I'm slow, but I learned. And then also don't go for red Gatorade or blue Gatorade because your tongue is going to look like very weird and also like the gray Gatorade that that's pleasant enough on the front. You don't get this anywhere else, folks. This is in on, you know, 4th of July. You only hear this on the Across the Sky podcast. We are going to take a brief break. And the other side, we're going to talk with George some more about the hot dog eating contest happening on July 4th in coffee. And we are back with the Across the Sky podcast. You can check out new episodes every Monday, Every Monday evening. We have new episodes for you, spanning across the wide range of weather, climate and beyond, including hot dogs. And it is 4th of July. So we have the chairman of Major League eating, George Shea here with us, maybe America's best. HEITMAN As we're getting into the 4th of July and the event here, George, I have to ask you because and the reason why I said you're kind of a personal hero of mine is because you are so, like precise with your hyping of all of the contestants. It's just so well performed. How long do you spend working on that script? I'm imagining it's a script. If you do it ad lib, you got to become a meteorologist because, you know, you're just standing at the screen talking about the weather without any script. But I'm curious. I know I do write a script and in fact, it years ago I would sort of start putting thoughts together the night before, I mean, just insane and try to memorize them. I'd be up until three or 4 a.m. trying to memorize stuff once again. Slowly I get there slowly, but eventually I got towards it. I'm going to do it, so why not do it before? And so that's what I've been doing lately. And so I always work on the Joey intro and the other big intros and and then I memorized them, right. And but it's, it's one of my favorite things to do. It's not, it's not easy for me. Sometimes I think of things and they just it's just there and and then sometimes you just have to do the work and really get there and then see what works. But for me, you know what? You went to the event, but most people don't know that there's an event for two and a half hours and we have an opera singer and I introduce him. I do a rap out with Badlands Booker. We do all kinds of things. You know, I sing these songs. I cannot literally sing, but I sing with a backup band and and all this kind of stuff. Very silly, but it takes a lot of work to prep. So I have a very long script that begins with, you know, ladies and gentlemen, are Coney Island citizens of the world, you know, bah bah bah. All the way to we have had a wild rumpus, but now our rebels are ended. I will see you next year. Right. And so it's a very, very long script. A lot of those components are set pieces that I do all the time, like it's go time. It's got to it's going to go lock and load 11. And we've, you know, on and on that. So I know those things and, you know, but but most of the intros are all new and require memorization. So that is, that is always I start about three weeks before and I'm never comfortable until it's done. And then even then I sort of like like groan inside if I think I could have done, you know, something better or more poetic or more funny. And George, I know you're most well known for the hot dog eating contest, but how many others do you do throughout the year? And do you have a favorite? Is the hot dog eating contest your favorite or is there another one that people may not know as much about that you enjoy a little bit more? Well, the hot dog contest is by far and away my favorite because there's so much pressure and so much focus, there's so many media, so many fans that it just amps it up into a whole nother level. However, I do do a lot of other events, and I did just a little while back the maintenance mania, which is a maintenance tech contest where they do all these things like fixing a sink and all these things that you can do it the fastest. It's actually enormously fun. It's at it's at the National Apartment Association Conference. And so I do that. It's not an eating thing. I've introduced a ton of or a lot of NASCAR events. You'd introduce the top drivers. So that is very exciting. You know, there are good 40,000 people. There can be very, very fun. And so so I would Nathan's is, without question, my favorite. But there are a lot of other events. You know, corporate events. You know, you introduce the board or you introduce the executive suite, you know, ending the CEO or chairman gets a Joey style intro and you find someone who who's finally who can be teased. But it brings up another thing which is interesting, perhaps only to me, but when you're doing 15 intros, you have to have a balance in the mix, right? So you need some that are just straight like so and so from Aurora, Colorado, you know, and you need some that are sort of grand like that, you know, the crucible, you know, our humanity is put through the crucible of competitive eating or something like that or once in every ten generations IQ rises. And so he stands before you now. So and so, you know, a couple of grand ones like that. You need funny ones very hard for me because it either comes to me or it doesn't. I have trouble writing jokes. I do write these jokes, but I always where it'll be a joke or people are, you know, like and not a real funny joke. But sometimes you really do want a funny one. You want one that's really fantastic and outrageous and and like, you know, just just more poetic. You want one that's like about, you know, some like, the evil, pure evil, you know what I mean? And we, you know, George Chigurh, who will not be competing this year, I described him as the red horse of death. And I spoke in the language of hell. And you know, this like, say, Good George, ten day West Yorkshire joy, you know, like all this kind of crazy talk, talk or whatever. And I had a lot of fun with that. So I'm sad he's not coming back. But then obviously, Leigh, you end with the Joey Chestnut intro, which is more epic than anything could ever be epic. Talking about freedom itself, Joey Chestnut is freedom itself. You know, the rock on which he stands. It's not Iraq, it's the United States of America. And, you know, on and on and on. And now really where I am is it has been for the last couple of years is more like universal. But whoever is the champion is going to get an intro like that because they are the champion of the 4th of July, you know, So so that's for me, developing that mix is actually a task, you know, and then delivering it by that time of memorize it. It's fun, but but it definitely doesn't it's not right off the top of my head. Do you ever wake up in the middle of night and jot something down? Has that happened before? CUTTER Percent. And so I used to I used to carry a book and then I would email myself, I'm dating myself here, and now I just have a Google doc and I just put stuff in all the time, you know, like all these just things that strike me as funny, you know, and, and or interesting and epic and, and I have certainly appropriate a lot of stuff. You know, I don't rip anybody off, but I definitely appropriate like, for instance, look, on his work she might be in despair for he has surpassed the kings of Egypt. That first part is a believe Percy Bysshe Shelley you know, from Ozzy is and you know what I'm saying like so so if I find something that I think is just, you know, wow, that's great, I will think. What would be your version of that? How do you start from there and go somewhere else and stuff like that? And George, you bring up Joey Chestnut and I just want to get your take on him. Do you think he's the best there's ever going to be or is there going to be somebody that's going to come along and one day supplant where is he ever going to reach his his his threshold? What is your take on on Joey Chestnut? Well, look, I think I think it's obvious that that Joey is not going to be here forever kind of thing. So so, you know, there will be a post Joey World and he will his number will be surpassed. It's just that simple. No one thought Kobayashi was ever going to be beaten. And and he was and he was beaten badly and again and again and again. And he quit. Right. So, you know, no one thought 55 zero could be achieved. Kobayashi did that. It blew up the whole thing. It was amazing. He's an amazing competitor. But Joey could beat him repeatedly and and Kobayashi would never be able to beat Joey. Joey's at 70 call 76 in that range above 70. Kobayashi is not going to 76. It is never happening. Right. And Kobayashi Best was like 68 or 69 or 66 in that range, depending on because he did some contest beyond us. And people said the numbers weren't right, but call it high sixties. That was in 12 minutes. Joey he's doing this in ten, he's doing 76 in ten, you know, So so those kind of records are not going anywhere any time soon. But every record. What the why did we change from 12 to 10? What was the reasoning behind that? I forget we filed some documentation and there was a big time story on this new York Times that the contest early in the twenties was 10 minutes long. So we switched to that kind of a dramatic thing to do. But we were honoring that. And I don't know when it went to 12, when I started in 88, it was 12. Not only that, this is bizarre, Max, Rosie now dead. All right, great guy ran the contest at 6 minutes. Halfway through, you say, okay, time out and take a break. And then for 5 seconds, then you go, okay, we're back at it. I don't know what that a cop with you because they didn't clear their mouth. We didn't take a ten minute break. Right. What was he even thinking? But wasn't perhaps his specialty. But, you know, so. But it's been 10 minutes for a long time. And all of the records now are perceived as being 10 minutes. But remember, prior to, you know, in the Kobayashi era and before it was 12, it got it. Got it. Okay. So what can we expect with this year's event? Do we have how many new in terms of new contests dance? Do we have any new wrinkles in the programing that we'll see. If you're watching it on TV, what do you expect? Well, what can people expect? Me? Yeah, let me skip the obvious and get right to sort of the inside track, if I can. Let's do it. So I'm I'm sharing the year because it will give people who are considering betting and and looking at this some insight Look for Jeffrey Esper because this guy is a monster, okay? He's ranked number two in the world and he is just absolutely relentless and he is spectacular. All right. So, Jeffrey Esper, keep an eye on him. It is the prospects for him going forward are amazing. Also, we have to see what happens with two Japanese seaters. Okay. We have Max Suzuki has always come from Japan, but we have two new competitors, which I can't pronounce the name for, which I won't try. But we have a male professional coming and I've seen his YouTube stuff and I've seen his web stuff and social stuff and the quantity of food is astounding and a female eater will be taking on Miki Sudo Likewise the quantity of food, it's like it's just enormous. It's like Max. Matt Stoney level buckets of food, but the question is duration. So 10 minutes is not really what they try to focus on. They're more like 20 minutes or 30 minutes, right? And they do these quantities of food that are just astounding, but not for speed. So it's always a wild card of what they will do. But as I look at this, I look at Nick Fury, okay, ranked number four in the world, married to Miki Sudo, your son Max, are the two greatest eaters around. They marry and have a child. Their son Max, was ranked number 42 while still in the womb. Okay, that's. That's how good his parents are. And it's now the mashed banana eating champion of Tampa Bay, Florida, right as it is. So you must be happy for the long term prospects. The major I'm quoting him now. I'm recruiting him now. I don't know if it's appropriate. We should probably let him get out of grad school. But but, you know, they are an amazing couple and Nick is absolutely fantastic. And he knocked down in in the qualifier in Orlando, Florida. He knocked down 44 on a bad day. All right. So he was having trouble. The hot dogs have been there for a while. It were tough. He was off and he knocked down 44. And I said, oh, my God, Nick, that's a great grade number. He is very disappointed. So keep an eye on Nick. Keep an eye on Jeffrey Esper. Keep an eye on the new Japanese folks, because Max Suzuki is going to be in that 40 range. It's not likely to go about 40, but and Mickey, I would never bet against Mickey win. And then, you know, like but, you know, you have to make your own choice. You know, can anybody beat the guys at the top? Top, top. I don't think that anyone's getting to 76 and I don't think that Mickey is going to be beaten. But but those what I'm looking at are the folks I just mentioned. I love the inside baseball. There's that. It's some great insight. I want to quickly touch on the history here a little bit. I don't know why. Hot dog, why were hot dogs chosen over another popular fast food hamburgers, for example? Is there a reason why it is the hot dog eating contest versus something else we have done hamburger eating contest, Right. So when the the original as you mention, we did crystal hamburgers, we've done other hamburgers. I do think this boils down to this. All right. And and it's it's they they talk about live golf and the PGA and they say money is always going to win. All this talk about about, you know, our principle and all that is garbage. Money is going to up is going to corrupt everything. And and commerce is going to is going to rule the day. The reason that this was done is because Max Rosi and Mortimer Matz, the two Coney Island press agents who ran the contest, you know, from 1972 until I took it over. And you want first was 88, but I took it over. And what they represented Nathan's, and they were looking for something to get on TV or in the paper on the 4th of July. And they originally started it on, you know, a couple of years, rather did it on Memorial Day, but it was always a 4th of July contest. They were just looking for that photo. So that is, you know, if you ask why hot dogs, it's because always it was this promo version of Hot Dogs for Nathan's, which is the original hot dog. And it's in Coney Island in New York City on the 4th of July. Right. Immigrants at dogs, baseball, apple pie, America. That's really and seen through the lens of marketing. Okay. So that's you know and promotion that's that's why in this case, hot dogs. But as I said, we have gotten the increase and do events chicken wings, hamburgers, pizza, everything but somehow hot dogs on the 4th of July is different and better. I think also two hot dogs are very relatable to eating fast like anyone can like Scarpa log in 2 seconds, you know? But doing 76 of those is a whole nother story. George, I got two more questions for you and we're going to wrap on up. And this one I'm genuinely curious about and we kind of touched on it. How do you get that excited for the intros and during the contest? Because we're talking right now, you're pretty calm, cool and collected, but it's like you turn it to like a love it when it comes time for the contest. So what's the secret formula there in the morning on it's go time, right? It's just go time And I got to do it. One thing, you flip the switch, you know, I tell my kids, you know, I was always had this may not seem like this would be the case. I had a lot of social anxiety and still do. But I realized you just go big, just go big. And with competitive eating, it's start big, go bigger. Right? So so there is never a time on July three, the night of July three, the morning of July 4th, that I'm not extremely anxious and nervous. But the issue is when you get on the stage and your people are there because these people come, they love it, right? The brothers are down front. They've been there since eight In the old days, they had been drinking since eight. Now you can't bring beer in. Not my okay, not my city in New York, but. And that energy that you put out comes back and becomes It's a feedback loop that just builds and builds and builds. And so by the time I get to the interest, I am so amped up and my hands shake. Anyway, I have a genetic tremor, so my hands shake anyway. And when I'm amped up, I can hardly hold the mike. Right? People say on online just Georgia Park. And it's like, I don't. I checked it, but my hands go crazy. I'm so amped up and when I get to deliver something that I like and then the audience likes it, right? They you feel it when you deliver one of these big intros. There is just nothing like that. It is met many times. Made me say, you imagine what it would be like to be Mick Jagger or for that matter, Taylor Swift and have 70,000 people like it would be a drug like none other because I'm an you know, this is a, you know, ridiculous hot dog eating contest and crowd is much, much smaller. But that energy, it's it's just it's electric and it's really like a drug. Yeah, I kind of can relate with you because I've I've always been anxious and talking in social settings growing up but I found a way to like channeled that anxiety energy into positive energy, you know, when doing a weather forecast or something like that. So I can emphasize with you it's it's a very important thing, really. And it took me far too long to learn. If you go into a room and you're you just feel like, oh, my God, I'm going to stand against the back. If you just go and go, hey, suddenly everybody ignores you because you're the guy who doesn't care. You're the guy who's comfortable and then suddenly it takes away everything. So that is true of public speaking and it is true of dating. I told my son you the the the if you don't ask, that's the embarrassing. Getting rejected is not an embarrassment. And, you know and it's it's very true. It's like go forward go big and it the rewards are huge and that but it very much so when you're doing a presentation if you have that energy, everybody quiets down. If you don't have the energy, they get anxious. Now, your last question here. What does George Shea do on the evening of July 4th? All right. So this is first of all, I'm going to add that I told you I this is a very honest I'm being very honest. So we love it. I have to tell you, I'm never honest. I'm a liar. I'm a liar all the time. So I'm being honest. I usually sit there and look at social media and I look at what happens on social media and I search Joey, I search Emily, I search Badlands Booker, Mickey, Nick. I search myself and I see. What are people saying? Like one time last last year, who's the guy who used to be or he's connected somehow to wrestling? He has a big podcast. What's his name? Joe Rogan. No, I'm Spaceman. Anyway, he's got a very, very big podcast. And then he goes, I thought George's interest there were okay, but they weren't quite as good. I was like, devastated, right? Like, and if someone is like, does a it did George missed the line like, like other people are are going over my lines or something like that. But I just sit there like anybody looking at social media and if everybody's happy on that, you know what I'm saying? And if they're not, I'm not. But, you know, last year they were had the protester and the protester jumped on stage and Joey got him. And then I grabbed him and it was like it went crazy on social media. So it just exploded the contest on social media. And that's that's really what I want to do. I say, how are we playing out there? You know what I'm saying? And then you get the media reports later of traditional media. But I just want to see, you know, typically trends and stuff like that. So that's that's generally what I. All right. So you're being a businessman after the event and trying to see how how you did so obsessed and a businessman. Yes. That that that's quite all right. You know, you got to keep thing going. So George Will, thank you so much for the time. Let everybody know where they could check out the hot dog eating contest on the food check. ESPN is going to be on multiple times. You can go to, you know, the best thing to do, go to if0ce dot com or major league eating dot com and we will have everything right there. You want to go to the event. We have the trains to get there if you want to watch it on TV. We have all of the airings and what will happen is this. It will air a bunch of times on ESPN, you know, throughout the afternoon. And it's awesome. All right, George, thanks so much for joining the Across the Sky podcast. Have a great event on the fourth. I'll be watching and hopefully we'll talk to you soon. Thank you. Thank you very much for having And we are back Matt I have to say I really enjoyed George Great Guy Very nice, very articulate. Yeah. If you only watch him during a hot dog eating contest, you wouldn't know it's him. He's like almost there. But people calm, cool and collected. But I loved it. I love George. I've been following him for years. The hot dog eating contest. I always enjoyed the event and I he has a large part to do with it, so I it's definitely a personal honor for me to have him on. But what did you take, Matt? I just loved his honesty with us. You know, he said multiple times like this, I feel like this is a safe space. I'm going to I'm going to be honest with you. And how he said, it's like I just get on social media. I want to see what people are saying after then I think that's something that you think about. You know, again, you know, people get on social media and they tweet about people, but it's like, remember that those people and see your tweets if they want to. And there's there's your proof. You tweeted sports say he's going he's going to see it. And the other thing that that stood out to me, I you know, I think I like the end of the interview the best because again, with his honesty, he talked about how he gets nervous before these I mean, you wouldn't know it watching him. It gets so hyped. It seems like he's the most confident guy in the world. But he actually there's a little bit of anxiety, a little bit of fear. And I, I can relate to that, too. When I'm doing my workouts, there's always that little, you know, those butterflies in your stomach that you get. You know, when I was on TV and I'm even when I'm recording things that aren't going out live, I'm not livestreaming there is that since I'm nervous because, you know, there's an audience and you want to give it your best. And so there is a little bit of nervousness that comes with it. But I liked how he talked about how he channels into actually improving is in form It's actually a little bit of nerves is is good. It makes you a little bit more loose, not too stiff and certainly works for me. It puts on quite the show, amazing show. I also like to Miki Sudo and Nick really have a child. That child is going to be quite the competitive eater. So if you want to start placing your future sports bets for the year, I don't know, maybe 2043 he might be your guy. The child there. So that was actually that was actually pretty funny. But it was great interview. I hope you guys watch the hot dog eating contest on the 4th of July on ESPN. If you're in New York City area or want to go to New York City for the fourth, I have been to the contest. Definitely get there by about 10:00. It starts get pretty crowded after that. But it's just a fun time. I mean, it's it's 4th of July ads. America, keep it loose. Have fun. You can go to the boardwalk afterwards. There you go. The Nathan's place and need a hot dog. I did that, too. And the line isn't ridiculously long. You can get a hotdog. You just got to wait maybe 5 minutes or so. But it's a really cool time. So happy 4th of July. Everybody will be back with you next Monday with a new episode.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

From the Midwest to the Northeast, many in the U.S. have been dealing with the smoke from the record breaking Canadian wildfires for over a month now. Hazy skies have been common and extremely low air quality has occurred in spots. Why is this happening and will it be more common in the future? Dr. Emily Fischer, an associate professor at Colorado State University and a member of Science Moms, studies how climate change impacts wildfires. She joins the podcast this week to explain why this year's Canadian wildfire season has been so bad and how wildfires and their smoke will behave as the planet continues to warm. She also talks about her research flying in airplanes above wildfires and shares the harrowing story of how she and her family had to flee from the Cameron Peak fire in Colorado in 2020. We want to hear from you! Have a question for the meteorologists? Call 609-272-7099 and leave a message. You might hear your question and get an answer on a future episode! You can also email questions or comments to podcasts@lee.net. About the Across the Sky podcast The weekly weather podcast is hosted on a rotation by the Lee Weather team: Matt Holiner of Lee Enterprises' Midwest group in Chicago, Kirsten Lang of the Tulsa World in Oklahoma, Joe Martucci of the Press of Atlantic City, N.J., and Sean Sublette of the Richmond Times-Dispatch in Virginia. Episode transcript Note: The following transcript was created by Adobe Premiere and may contain misspellings and other inaccuracies as it was generated automatically: Hello, everyone, and welcome to another episode of Across the Sky, our national Lee Enterprises weather podcast. I'm Matt Holiner, covering weather for Lee's Midwest news sites and apps from Chicago. But of course, it's not just me. I'm joined by my fellow meteorologist Joe Martucci in Atlantic City, New Jersey, and Sean Sublette in Richmond, Virginia. The fourth member of our team Kirsten Lang is also home on maternity leave. But she'll be back in just a couple of weeks. And we're definitely looking forward to it. Now, for this week's episode, it's something that if you haven't experienced yourself, I'm sure you've heard about it. The Canadian wildfires and all the smoke associated with them. Now, we've been dealing with this story for weeks, but the worse was on Wednesday, June seven, when the Northeast and mid-Atlantic were absolutely covered in smoke and New York City recorded its worst air quality ever. Now, Joe, you're awfully close to New Jersey, and I know you were impacted as well. So for those of us that weren't there and you describe what that was like. Well, I'll tell you, when my wife said because she works in New York City, it looks like Mars out there in New York, it was orange everywhere. Smell like you wanted to roast a marshmallow. That you know, that's what she said. Even down by, you know, our office closer to Atlantic City. It was a it looked like a cloudy day out. I mean, like with no sun whatsoever. It looked just like a dark, a dreary day out there. You could still smell the wildfire smoke as well. And you know, if you smell the wildfire smoke, it's kind of already through like those those articles that aren't good for you to breathe in are already getting into your system. You can smell the wildfire smoke. So. And a New York City in northern well, say north Jersey, we won't get into the central north south Jersey debate, but it was definitely a once in a generation type of area. Yeah, we certainly hope once in a generation because, man, I just saw the pictures and those pictures were just incredible. I mean, the images that were coming out and I think that's why it just becomes such a national story because you just never had seen these things over New York City, these orange skies. And you're right. I mean, that's what I assumed because the pictures I saw, it really looked like like Mars. It's like, whoa, we've seen pictures like this from California before and in Colorado. But up in the Northeast like to see these images. It was it was pretty incredible. So I can imagine it was a it was quite the experience. Yeah, definitely. Quite. Did you experience anything? We get into this in the show, but yeah, it's really been about, you know, five, six weeks of it at least. Wildfire smoke in the sky might not be smelling it every day, but it's just been persistent here across the area. Yeah. And you know, well, we we just wanted to dive into all of this deeper so, you know, why are Canada's wildfires so bad this year? Why has so much of the smoke ended up over the U.S.? What are the short term and long term impacts from this smoke exposure? And, you know, we found the perfect guests for this episode helps answer all our questions. Dr. Emily Fischer from Colorado State University. She's an atmospheric chemist who studies wildfire smoke, and she's even flown over wildfires to collect samples of. So it was a great conversation and one we'll bring you right after this break. Welcome back, everyone, to the Across the Sky podcast. Our guest this week is Dr. Emily Fischer, an associate professor in the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University. Her research focuses on how climate change is affecting wildfires and the impact of wildfire smoke on people. She's also a member of Science Moms, an organization of climate scientists and mothers. We're helping other moms better understand climate change. She earned her bachelor's degree from the University of British Columbia, a master's degree from the University of New Hampshire, Ph.D. from the University of Washington. And we are thrilled to have her on the show. Dr. Fischer, welcome across the sky. Thanks so much for having me, Matt. And so as we do with all our guests, I'd like to start by asking you what got you interested in whether what made you want to start studying the atmosphere and specifically how it interacts with wildfires? I have been interested in the weather from the time I was a child. I was ten when Hurricane Bob came through Rhode Island. I'm originally from the East Coast, though. I live in Colorado now, and I was fascinated, impressed, amazed at the ability to predict something like that and to and to prepare for that level of a natural disaster. And I was a kid who I mean, I called my local weatherman, who was John GLASSIE, and I feel like I should reach out to John Garcia and tell him, look, it turned out I got a Ph.D. in atmospheric science, but he called me back. He was on air when I called, Right. And I asked him what made wind. So I've just been fascinated in the atmosphere and I care deeply about air quality. And I think we all have issues that we care about and we don't always control what things we care about. Some of us are interested right, in health care, access to health care, and some of us are interested in environmental issues and some of us are interested in animals like. And I just happen to care about air quality. And so as soon as I figured out that that was a thing that I could study, you know, as I started as an undergraduate, I never looked back. So and then if you spend any time living in the western U.S., fires are a thing. And I like to work on projects that have a global relevance, but a local component. And I think that really helps me understand them more deeply. So I, I experienced the phenomenon. I have sort of this local understanding of how it's impacting people and it's sort of connected to a broader picture. So fires fall in that category. And some of the other things that I work on also fall in that category. There they stand this local to national to international space. But, you know, if you live in in the West, anywhere you're going to interact with fires and smoke. And it it's a thing that will draw your attention. Yeah. And I know most of your research on wildfires has been focused in the United States, but of course, this time they're occurring in Canada and having impacts here in the U.S. So, you know, what can you tell us about why the fires in Canada this year have been so much worse than in previous years? So this year it comes down to aridity or dryness. And so it has just been very dry. Wildfires are very responsive to environmental conditions. And so just imagine tossing a match into a dry brown fire of old versus tossing that match into a well-watered lawn. Right. And or a snow covered area. And so if you have a very dry, dry conditions, that's exactly what will lead to the chance of wildfires. And then it's just a matter of whether you have an ignition source and leads show here. So I am in New Jersey. Yes. And a couple of Wednesdays ago, we had New Jersey turning into more. For some reason or another, it's orange everywhere, at least in the northern half and state with the wildfire smoke. New York City, you still have the worst air quality in the world. Where I am in South Jersey. It wasn't quite orange, but it was very, very easy. And it has been really since the middle of May, both with Alberta wildfires. And then what's happening in Quebec and Ontario, in Nova Scotia here, I guess that is 360 view like what actually caused the smoke to recede? Unprecedented levels, you know, in the northeast, because it's not like we haven't seen wildfire smoke before, at least here in northeast. There's a few issues and one is the fires that are occurring are large and they're so large, some of them, that they're creating their own weather right there. These are big, big, big wildfires and fires that are that large. They create very, very dense amounts of smoke. So much so that when you fly through them and maybe we'll talk about this earlier, I mean, you can't see anything, right? It's it's ten times as dense as what you saw experiencing have experienced in New Jersey. There's been just very efficient transport of the smoke to these populated areas in the northeast. And it's new for to the northeast, but it's not new for the western cities. So San Francisco, Seattle have been experiencing these kinds of smoke filled conditions quite frequently over the last couple of years. And it's just a matter of when the wildfire is extremely active. The winds just happen to push that smoke in a certain direction at that level of the atmosphere. And so the, you know, faster and more efficient and more narrow, that smoke plume is the more concentrated it's going to be when it gets to its receptor region, which, you know, was your neighborhood this time. So that's as simple as it is. And the smoke from wildfires is injecting in various levels of the atmosphere throughout the day in the early morning. And, you know, overnight it's injecting lower in the atmosphere as it grows throughout the day, it tends to inject higher. But if you have conditions where that smoke, you know, mixes back down into the lower atmosphere, you can get, you know, really concentrated plumes moving very efficiently and and at all levels of the atmosphere, actually. So so, yeah, I'm sorry about that. I'm sorry. I have family in New Jersey, too. So. So I feel your pain. Well, apology accepted. So it's no problem there. But yeah, it was definitely a generation, you know, this type of event for us here. I wanted to ask one brief follow show. I know you're going to ask, but I just wanted to, you know, ask in May. So we hear the wildfire smoke in bay, but it wasn't as hazy. And then, you know, early June came and it became a lot thicker. Would you be able to just talk about the differences between what we saw in May as opposed to what we, you know, the more notable world wide event that happened in early June when it's more concentrated, you're receiving smoke that's fresher, more dense, and you're getting it a more direct a direct transport pathway. And I think because I wasn't there at all during that more recent event, you were even able to smell the smoke, right? Yeah, you are absolutely right. Yeah. And then a few months maybe it's just a few weeks ago, months ago, a month and a half ago, the prior smoke event. Right. You couldn't smell it. Right, Right. Yeah, right, exactly. Yeah. So the compounds in smoke that you can smell, they have a lifetime of about a day. So when you can smell the smoke, it's often more concentrated and fresher. And when you can't smell the smoke, but you see that haze, it usually just means it's been processed in the atmosphere for over a day. So it's it's taken longer than a day to get to you. And if something is taking longer to get to you, there's also more opportunities for dilution, for deposition, for for the things that are in smoke to come out. And so that's really the difference between those those two events is, is the distance. And I sort of duration of time that passed between the fire and the smoke coming to your neighborhood. Yeah. And to follow up about the transport of that particulate matter, as Joe knows, and most of us in the weather field know, the the upper level winds or the steering winds were kind of unusual for this time of the year anyway, which is part of the reason the smoke got got this far south. Even here where I was in Virginia, we had a fair bit not as thick as in the Northeast, but we got some here. And as you mentioned, this is something that is much more common in the western United States. Can I get you also to speak a little bit more about how this does fall back in to the warming climate? Oftentimes, I hear that, well, somebody started a fire, but I try to remind people and you jump in, if I'm a little off base here, that the the origin of the fire isn't isn't the important thing. I mean, it's not that it's not important, but the conditions of the land that surround it will really govern how much how fast it spreads and how far it spreads. So can I get you to riff on that just a little bit? Is that kind of kind of the right idea? Yes, on you're totally right. And in fact, my group has has worked on this and I can talk a little bit about that. So I'm not with Canadian fires, but with wildfires in the western U.S. and in the southeastern United States is where we've specifically focused on this link. And other other people have worked in Canada. And and so in general, you can look back at our fire records over the last 30, 40 years and that interannual variability and burn area is linked to environmental conditions. And which environmental condition is most important depends on the ecosystem. So in some places it is the precipitation that is the best explainer that we have of that year's burn area and other places. It is the aridity that that best explains in the Rocky Mountains, where I live, that interannual variability and burn area is really very tightly linked to our our aridity and so we have also looked at this as a function of ignition source and human started fires and lightning started fires both they're there year to year burn area that they produce the sort of severity and extent of the fires that are started by both of those ignition sources, lightning or human ignition sources, they vary with environmental conditions. So you are absolutely right. It's it's not net it's not the ignition source. Right. That we are priming the environment or conditions that will facilitate large fires. And so as we look forward with climate change and I mean, climate change is happening right now also. But one thing we know very well is that temperatures will continue to rise. And one thing the second thing that we know very well over North America is that in general it will be drier. And so that just that alone will facilitate more periods of time where large fires could occur. And and yes, so it's interesting, you know, in the West, there's been a lot of work, right, to educate people about fire safety and and to be careful with ignition sources, but particularly in in certain times of year. And probably more work needs to happen in, you know, other parts of the world where where typically we haven't been so vulnerable to fires. Yeah. It's not what we want to hear. We talk about climate change and how we could be seeing more of these types of events. And what I want to dive into now is, is some of your research because it sounds really cool. I know some of it is involved actually flying over wildfires to sample the smoke. So can you tell us about this and what is actually snow smoke made out of? That's kind of a key question. What are the components that are actually in wildfire smoke? Sure. So in 2018, I led what was at that time the one of the largest yield missions in atmospheric chemistry to study wildfires. And we worked with the National Science Foundation, National Center for Atmospheric Research, C-130 research aircraft. And so we filled that research aircraft with so many different instruments. It was like a flying chemistry lab. And we took that facility and we visited more than 20 different, very large wildfires. And if you remember, 2018 was a very active wildfire year. So we're talking about like the Carr Fire, the Mendocino complex, some of these really, really big wildfires. And so what we would do was go behind the wildfire or upwind of the fire and see what was happening and figure out the background atmosphere that the smoke was, that the fire was injecting the smoke into. And then we would come around downwind of the the fire and we would as soon as it was safe. So outside of the updraft, you know, these are large fires They're making very large, very large updrafts. We would turn the plane directly into the smoke, directly into the outflow, and then we would go out the other side. And it's like many minutes pass. It's a little unnerving. It smells like you can't see anything. It's very red. It's very eerie. As a parent of small children, I was like, What am I doing right now? Why am I doing this? And then you come out the other side, you know that, get a sample of that, the air on the other side, and go right back in. And we we mow the lawn or shoveled the snow, I guess is the time of year where you'd mow the lawn, mow the lawn through the smoke plume. And we we did that again and again and again to understand how the smoke changes in that very, very close to the fire in that first couple hours and really understand what's happening and what's what's in the smoke. So what's in smoke? It is a very complex mixture of gases and particle jets. And so the fine particulates are very different than a typical urban air pollution mixture. They are generally what we call organic carbon. So these are chemical compounds with urban carbon bonds. It's a we don't have perfect characterization of of chemically of exactly all of that, but most of the aerosol has organic carbon and then you have a lot of carbon containing gases. So there's lots of carbon monoxide, for example, anytime you have incomplete combustion. So there's a lot of carbon monoxide, there's a lot of carbon dioxide, there are a lot of what we would think of as hazardous air pollutants. So things like formaldehyde, benzene, these are all organic compounds that you don't really want to be breathing. Those are in there. There's also quite a few nitrogen containing compounds is nitrogen in the wood and in the material that's being burnt. And so that's what my team studies. So so that's what smoke is made out of. And it every single one of those compound, every single one of those chemicals, they all interact differently with sunlight and with water. So they have different solubility, they have different deposition rates, they have different what we call fatalis rates are how quickly they're broken down by sunlight. They react differently with other compounds in the smoke. And so it's a very interesting mixture. It's very chemically active, particularly in the first couple of hours. And then some of the chemistry slows down with with time as it and it becomes it's ever evolving because it's going from concentrations concentrated to dilute and that that will change the composition a little bit too because it changes the chemistry. Does that help? Yes, I figured it was going to be a little bit more complex than we think. I know there are a lot of different elements that make up smoke, but also when you were describing flying through the smoke, it reminded me a lot of some of the hurricane hunters that we've had on this podcast. It's been very similar going back and forth through the hurricane, back and forth, through the wildfire smoke. And honestly, I think kind of just as scary as well. That would be a pretty nerve wracking experience. I'm not sure I'd be up for that, actually. But I mean, these are wonderful pilots, very safe activity. I would say. It just feels it feels like you shouldn't be doing it. And, you know, we're very careful not to interfere with the firefighting teams and the firefighting teams aren't trying to fly in the smoke where you can't see anything. So it it it's you know, there's lots of aircraft around wildfires. And the key thing for us was to stay out of the way of the firefighters. But, you know, you you operate in very safe conditions. You're you know, you remain 2000 feet above the ground. And and because you can't see anything, so you don't want to run into Mount St Helens, for example. So so but it it yeah, it was unnerving for me, but I don't think the pilots were nervous. The other thing that we did on that field program, which was really difficult but so fascinating, was try to sample smoke cloud mixtures. So in those cases we would be looking for these. I know this is a weather podcast, so I'll just get it into a tiny bit of detail here. There were these beautiful cumulus fields, right? And we would go sample the smoke under them and then move up into these little puffy clouds and try to collect the cloud droplets. So we were taking the plane and going zooming cloud to cloud. And, you know, I was in the cockpit. So not getting as sick as I would have gotten. I always medicate on these planes, but the back of the plane was definitely getting sick. But it was kind of amazing to, you know, try to capture the cloud particles that were impacted by smoke. Yeah. Just one other thing that you can do while you're up there in the smoke and take advantage of it and sample the clouds as well. Okay. Well, we're going to take a quick break, but coming up, we're going to chat more about wildfires, smoke and the impacts of climate change is having on them. So don't go anywhere. More across the sky in just a bit. Welcome back to the Across the Sky podcast. Everyone released new episodes every Monday on all our early news sites and apps, but also on all podcast platforms. And we even have a new YouTube channel. So really, wherever you like to get your podcast, you can find us there. We're back with Dr. Emily Fischer from Colorado State University chatting about wildfires and smoke. And Emily, one of the things that came up in my research for this episode is that you and your family actually had to flee from the Cameron Peak fire while backpacking in 2020. Now, I assume is pretty scary. So can you describe that experience? So 2020, right. The pandemic summer, we were looking for things to do with the kids we had. We had taken them to Rocky Mountain National Park a few weeks prior and had this great backpacking experience. So we, you know, kind of at the last minute said, let's go up near Cameron Peak, because that's just a little bit to the north of where I live. And so we we camped out one night and the next morning we got up and my kids were very whiny and we didn't make it that far. So we had, you know, we stopped a little early for lunch and I said, okay, we can just sit and paint or do something if if you guys don't feel like walking very far. And so we sat down by a tree to have lunch and I came, you know, stood up after lunch and there was a big bubble, big bubble on the back side of Cameron Peak. And I just looked at my husband. I was like, That's not a cloud like that. That's not a cloud. And I know that because in 2018 I had been flying all over the place looking at many wildfires, knows that we have to go now. And so we had to make a very quick decision of whether we were going uphill, which would have meant we had to have to cross like ten, 11,000 feet with the kids or to go back down the way we came. And so we just grabbed our children's hands and we ran out. And my daughter, who's eight now, was five at the time, and she ran six and a half miles and about two and a half hours. And it was this. Thankfully, the smoke was running parallel to us so we could see the massive plume. And I didn't know what was going to happen. Right. I mean, but we did make it out. But there was no we were we were about between one and two miles from the start of the of the fire. And when we got out, the Rangers, they the fire didn't have a name. Right. So I like finally get out. We get out. I turn the key of the car over to make sure everything's going to be okay. Kids in the car, I tell them, you can start crying now like you can. You can do whatever you need to do now, because it had been, you know, a few hours of like, here's a saver. You get one sip of water, watch your ankles, no talking, right. Just just running, running out. And they and this is quite rugged terrain where this is and that you could tell because it was very hard to fight this fire. And so we got out and I was like, what's the name of the fire? And the fire had no name. And actually the pictures that my husband took were used by the the Forest Service and some of their investigative work about the cause of the fire. And so so the Cameron Peak fire turned into at that time, Colorado's largest. And it just you know, I watched that every incident management report every single night for that. And it burns, you know, right through in October. And it basically burned until it snowed. And so we it started in August and it just continued on. And that smoke was sort of covering Fort Collins. And it would was just very smoky here. There was ash falling on us all the time and your 2020. So you could really only be with people outside. So we were sitting, you know, in the backyard with my brother, just like ash falling on us. And it's like what the world says so dark. And so that summer one, my kids are quite traumatized. It's very hard to get them out hiking now unless it's actively raining. And so actually, I'm going to come to the East Coast this summer and I'm excited to take them a little bit to the New Hampshire mountains and sort of introduce them to hiking again in a non-Western way where the sort of threats are smaller. But I also that summer, like lived my grass, right? So I had a student at the time I actually had coffee with this morning, Steve Bry, and he had been working on the link between climate and wildfires. And, you know, summer 2020 was incredibly dry and it was not surprising that from August to September we had an extreme fire season here. And so I felt like I was living in those graphs. I felt like I understood those calculations. And in a much deeper way. And I would, you know, honestly cry some days that summer because I was like, this is what climate change feels like. This is what this feels like. And at the same time, there was some really great work happening to try to understand the return cycle for events like that and that maybe 6 to 8 years. And that's a horrible type summer to have every six years. So, so I feel like that experience. Yeah, it helped me understand fires and their impacts in a in a new way, in a very nonacademic, nonacademic way and also kind of taught me and it inspired some of my more recent work to think about how we communicate about wildfires so that people can protect themselves and their loved ones and they're sort of vulnerable members of their family. When smoke comes to town. So. So yeah, that's what that experience was like. Not great. I'm happy everybody was okay. It's certainly possible that we wouldn't have been had the winds been different. Yeah, that is absolutely harrowing. And so congratulations on on getting out with the kids and that they were all right. My kids are 24 and 20 now, so that's no longer an issue, but better communication. And you talking about coming back here to the East Coast to do some hiking, is there a way or have you found any kind of good way to communicate what that risk is like in the western United States for people who have not been there? Obviously, we had this big, big plume of smoke in the northeast a few weeks ago. Would you say like, yeah, this is what we deal with all the time? Or would you say like you know, this is something that we're accustomed to all the time? How do you kind of convey the risk and what you what you contend with there in the West United States versus someplace that is, you know, in the east, it as a more a more humid climate and tends to be more forested in the first place. Well, there's a few things to think about with respect to this general question. And the first one is, while I do not want to diminish the risk of these fires and my family has run from a wildfire, and there's incredibly sad loss of life and property associated with wildfires. So I do not want to diminish that. But more people are impacted by the wildfire smoke and the health impacts are driven by the smoke because just the sheer number of people that are impacted by smoke is much larger. And so as you think about preparing for wildfires, that preparation really needs to happen across the U.S. with respect to the wildfire smoke, because the fire seasons are bad, fire seasons are very severe fire seasons. The frequency of them is going to increase. Unfortunately, and that's due to climate change and a legacy of land management decisions. And so we have to invest in our forests and work on preventing further climate change in order to address that. So we have to prepare for more smoke. And so preparing for more smoke will look different depending on your work and your home and your lifestyle. And whether you have someone in that is you yourself are sort of a member of a vulnerable group or not. So vulnerable groups are people with preexisting respiratory and cardiovascular issues and or the very young or the elderly and so in my family I have an older house, but I have a portable AC unit that I'm ready if the smoke comes so that I can close the windows and have it not be blazing hot. And I have a number of air filters that are ready to go and I don't need them all the time. But I have a sort of kit, the like now wildfire smoke is coming Kit and I would encourage families to do that. And in fact, my mom in Rhode Island, I she was hit by smoke. And, you know, she's funny. She's like, I have the windows open. And I was like, nope, no, no, you don't like close those up. And I'm in the ship. Use some air filters and this is how you're going to make yourself a clean air space in case those winds shift that plume a little bit further north. Because at the time it was just a little bit in southern Rhode Island and was more to the south. So I think sort of working with people so that they know what to do and how to protect themselves and whether they need to protect themselves is what we actually need to do, because the smoke is not going anywhere. It's coming more and more. Emily, changing gears a little bit here, you might tell us a little bit about more of the work you do with science moms here and where people find more information about it. Sure. Science Moms is a group of scientists who are also mothers. All of us work on some something tied to climate change. So for me, that's why my work on wildfires, which are very tightly linked to climate change. And so what we're aiming to do is in a nonpartisan and we're not politicians, right? Most of us many of us are academics, nonpartisan way explain the fundamentals of climate change and help mothers understand what this issue means for their families, for their children, and also to give them confidence to speak out about the issues. So you don't have to understand every little bit about climate science in order to understand that this is, you know, one of the most important issues of our time. And we absolutely have to take action now. We have about ten years to do a what needs to be done to slow this thing down. So so that's what science moms is. And we're trying to offer information on fires, on drought, on all the way to what do I do in my own home, to decarbonize it. We're offering, you know, all of that in one sort of space for mothers. And so you can find out about that at science moms dot com and there's videos of me and my colleagues, you know trying to explain things and trying to offer helpful advice and we, you know, showcase some of technologies too, and show how we use them. For me, like I'm a big fan of the E-bike that reduces my transportation and car carbon use substantially. So kind of show that and how we might go about that. So I even have done some videos on how do you call somebody that represents you and what are the things that you can say if you are concerned about climate change and its impact on your kids? And and so those are that those are the kinds of things that we're doing in it in an educational sense. Yeah, I really like the stuff that comes out of science on I'll do great work, you know, And as we wrap up here, you know, I'm sure being involved with science lives, but also your research, you know, people come to you, you know, and trying to understand it a little bit better. So when somebody comes to you and they're and they're worried about the future and climate change and the impact it's going to have on wildfires, you know what? What do you tell them? You know, you try and relax them because it is a stressful thing. We talk about climate change because there's so much negativity around it and we think about all the bad things that can happen. But what's kind of a silver lining that you see to trying to help relax people and focus on solutions and what we can do to help mitigate the risk if we're going to see increased wildlife or what kind of stuff can we do to handle that situation. You know, what is your response to somebody who's feeling a little uneasy? How can you hopefully make people feel a little bit a little bit more relaxed? Yeah, I think it helps to just work on the issue. So and there's a very hands up. You feel better once you start working on something that that applies to everything, right? Sometimes starting the job is the hardest piece of doing something right. So so, you know, I'm telling them to do what they can do. So that might be share information about climate change, swap things in their home and speak up to people that represent them. And then I am also telling them that there is there is. Oh, right. So we caused this problem. We understand what the solutions are and we have the technical capacity to change the way we produce and use energy. And so we just need the will to do that. And so there I think things could be much worse if we didn't know how to solve the problems. Right. But but we actually know how to solve the problem. We just have to decide. And so I encourage people to put that pressure on people that represent them at all levels of government, because that is one of the most important things that you can do. And it's very, very important and it's something that anyone can do. So, yes, it's the only thing, you know, I would say if you have children, be careful about how you talk about climate change to children. With my own kids, I tell them this isn't a weight that you have to carry right now. This is an adult problem and I'm working on it. And that is helps to reduce the anxiety in my house that that I'm not ignoring it. Right. I'm not pretending it's not an issue. And these are these are the ways that I'm working on this issue. So so those are those are my little pieces of advice I would give you. Yeah, I think that's great advice, you know, and focus on the solutions rather than I think you can. It's easy to focus on all the negativity and then focus on the worry about all the bad, but like are things we can do and focusing on what can we do that actually you can turn that anxiety a little bit into positive outcome and maybe actually lead to a solution to this big problem. Well, and this has been a great conversation, but where can people find out more about your research and size bombs? So I'm in the atmospheric science department at Colorado State University. I'm the only Emily professor there, so it's easy to find me there. And you can find out more about science moms at science moms dot com in that building YouTube videos and Instagram and all the ways that you can follow that. Awesome. I'm sure people will definitely be expecting that out. Well and we thank you so much for joining the podcast and hopefully we can have you back on again soon. I would love to. This has been really fun. Great. Well, going to take one more quick break, but we're going to be back with some closing thoughts in just a second. So stay tuned. More across the sky. I mean, and we're back on across the sky. And I can say I have a better understanding of how wildfires and wildfire smoke work after that conversation. Guys, what about you? Yeah, for for me just to hear that harrowing tale of her having to pick up the kids and literally run for hours to get out of the way of this thing in northern Colorado really puts it all into perspective. And the important thing here to remember, I think sometimes we forget, we focus on the fires themselves so often and the flames. But it's the smoke, which I think so many of us saw, because a couple of weeks ago that is far more pervasive and does more long term damage and affects more people in terms of health impacts. I think that's the other thing. We we need to be cognizant of, even if we don't live in an area that is especially close to two fires in and of themselves. And I just, you know, keep going back to her story that she had in Colorado when she was backpacking through there with their kids. I mean, you have kids, her her husband running, you know, away from the fire. And I you know, like she said, it was the biggest fire in Colorado's history. I mean, you know, that's something I lose a deer for a while. And she definitely made mention of that. Yeah, That was, you know, really a great story. And just the you know, the kind of take away for me is that, you know, after we dealt with what we saw over the Northeast, but again, we've been dealing with it in the Midwest as well, just all the talk, it just seems like, you know, never at this level. We're talking about so many days with the hazy skies and the reduced air quality. But now, unfortunately, it looks like that's that's where we're headed. These things are becoming more common, whether it's in the West or up in Canada is the conditions for wildfires, because the weather is getting more extreme. The conditions that cause wildfires, again, we've seen these things are becoming more common. So this is just one more thing we have to add to the list of things that we need to be prepared for and things we need to be working on. Solutions for, which actually ties back into last week's episode. We really want to thank you, our listeners, for checking out last week's episode, which was all about climate change solutions with Project Drawdown. Dr. Kate Marble And we actually did get some listener feedback on that episode, including an email from Steve who wrote More Electric Cars, High speed Trains and nuclear energy, as well as sealing methane, sources will cut most of the greenhouse gas emissions. All this needs to be done ASAP. We cannot wait for everyone to get on board. Tomorrow is not soon enough and see if I couldn't agree with you more. So thank you for the email and if you have a comment about the show or have a weather question you'd like us to answer, send us an email at podcasts at Lee Dot Net Podcasts at we dot net. Or if you'd like to hear your voice on the podcast, fix a voicemail by calling 60927270996092727099. We'd love to hear from you. And finally, before we wrap up, it is almost here perhaps the most anticipated episode of The Cross the Sky yet the Nathan's hot dog eating contest. And I can't believe I just said the joke. You've been hyping this one for weeks, so I'm going to give you one more chance here. Why do people need to do it in? If you love hot dogs, if you love New York City, if you love America, you'll love this episode. I love you, Joe Martucci. God bless you, brother. It's going to be great, George. George's great. Tremendous. Yes. If you see him up there on stage, you know, he's all energy. He was much more, you know, what shall we say, preparing, you know, definitely a little more subdued, which is a good thing, Not a bad thing. A good thing as we go into the hot dog eating contest, he's definitely saving up his energy for the fourth. So check it out. I think Sean is going to be absent from that episode. That's what I heard. I might take that one off. You like Hot Dog Shore? I do. I do. But I. I prefer bratwurst because I can enjoy it a little bit longer. No offense to Nathan. He makes a great hot dog and all, but I prefer the Johnsonville stuff, which I think is made up by you there. Matt, About the Johnsonville brats, the John Civil rights. Very good. They are very tasty. Well, maybe there was a brat eating contest. You know, we talked about I think it was an ad eating contest. There are other eating contests that are going to discuss in this episode. So it's going to be an experience. I hope you join in. This will be probably certainly our most unique episode of Across US Yet. But for now, that's going to do it for this week's episode of Across the Sky. If you like the show, please give us a rating or poster review on your favorite podcasting platforms and episodes out. Then of course, we appreciate the Love War we enterprises and my fellow meteorologist Joe Martucci, Atlantic City, and Sean Sublette in Richmond. I'm Matt Oliver in Chicago. Thanks for listening, everyone. Have a great week and we'll catch you again real soon.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

As summer begins, Kate Marvel from Project Drawdown talks with the team about the solutions already in place to help slow climate change and why the things that worry her the most have nothing to do with the physical science. We want to hear from you! Have a question for the meteorologists? Call 609-272-7099 and leave a message. You might hear your question and get an answer on a future episode! You can also email questions to podcasts@lee.net. About the Across the Sky podcast The weekly weather podcast is hosted on a rotation by the Lee Weather team: Matt Holiner of Lee Enterprises' Midwest group in Chicago, Kirsten Lang of the Tulsa World in Oklahoma, Joe Martucci of the Press of Atlantic City, N.J., and Sean Sublette of the Richmond Times-Dispatch in Virginia.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.