Forstrong Global Thinking

In this episode of the Global Thinking podcast, host Rob Duncan sits down with Forstrong CEO and CIO, Tyler Mordy, to unpack a rowdy stretch in markets and politics. From Canada's recent election to Trump's tariff tantrums, the conversation dives into how economic confidence has taken a hit on both sides of the border. But while Canada seems to be finding it's way with new leadership and domestic competition; American markets wrestle with political uncertainty and slowing economic data. Capital is quietly on the move finding greener pastures in Europe and Asia.   With European fiscal stimulus acting as a catalyst, global sentiment is shifting quickly. Tyler makes the case for investors to roll up their sleeves, rebalance portfolios, and lean into global diversification. It's a timely conversation filled with sharp insights and a reminder that when markets get volatile it pays to maintain a global perspective.   Chapters 00:00 Introduction to Global Thinking Podcast (01:06) Canadian Politics and Election Outcomes (05:09) Macroeconomic Trends in Canada (12:37) US Market Dynamics and MAG-7 (20:15) International Economic Opportunities and Desynchronization (25:31) Economic Performance Overview (27:54) International Markets: A New Catalyst for Growth (30:42) Navigating Uncertainty: Investor Sentiment and Strategy (35:19) The Importance of Global Diversification (38:27) Personal Insights and Future Outlook   Disclosures: https://forstrong.com/disclosures/   Global Thinking Podcast Series - https://forstrong.com/podcast/   Global Thinking Insights - https://forstrong.com/insights/   Who is Forstrong Global - https://forstrong.com/who-we-are/   Ask Forstrong - https://forstrong.com/category/ask-forstrong/   Invest With Us - https://forstrong.com/invest-with-us/      For any questions, comments or suggestions please reach out to Rob Duncan, rduncan@forstrong.com 

In this episode of the Global Thinking Podcast Rob Duncan is joined by Forstrong CEO and CIO, Tyler Mordy, to unpack what may become one of the most studied financial panics of our time. With markets rattled by a sudden loss of confidence, they explore how erratic policy moves and recent tariff announcements have triggered a global risk-off sentiment and shaken investor faith in American capital markets.   Tyler explains why this isn't your typical market correction, but rather a policy-inflicted confidence shock that's exposing deep structural cracks. The conversation dives into the fading role of the U.S. dollar as a safe haven, the growing importance of global diversification, and why gold is back in fashion. Most importantly, they discuss what investors should be watching now: bond market stability, fiscal stimulus leadership, and emerging opportunities in unexpected places.   Whether you're navigating this storm or preparing for what's next, this episode is a timely reminder that having a strategy and knowing your signals is more critical than ever.   Chapters 00:00 Introduction to Global Thinking Podcast 01:06 Market Turmoil and Tariff Impacts 03:27 Understanding the Financial Panic 10:01 Signals to Watch in the Current Market 13:22 Investment Implications and Opportunities 16:10 Final Thoughts and Advice for Investors   Disclosures: https://forstrong.com/disclosures/  Global Thinking Podcast Series - https://forstrong.com/podcast/  Global Thinking Insights - https://forstrong.com/insights/  Who is Forstrong Global - https://forstrong.com/who-we-are/  Ask Forstrong - https://forstrong.com/category/ask-forstrong/  Invest With Us - https://forstrong.com/invest-with-us/ 

The majority of active managers underperform their benchmarks - but why?   In this episode of the Global Thinking Podcast Rob sits down with Dr. Joseph Nelesen, Head of Specialists, Index Investment Strategy at S&P Dow Jones Indices, to unpack the 2024 SPIVA Report—the definitive study comparing active fund managers to their benchmarks.   The discussion explores how most active managers have underperformed their benchmark, the critical role of survivorship bias, and the impact of fees and market conditions on long-term performance. Joe shares eye-opening statistics including how almost half of all funds over a 10 year period cease to exist and the fact that zero managers maintain their top quartile ranking over a five-year period.   Rob and Joe also dive into ETF investing, analyzing the trends shaping active management today and what investors should consider when building portfolios. Whether you're an investment professional or an individual investor, this conversation delivers valuable insights into the ongoing debate between active versus index strategies and how market efficiency may be impacting your investment decisions.   https://www.indexologyblog.com/2025/01/08/shifting-tides-concentration-dispersion-and-the-sp-500-risk-landscape/     Chapters   00:00 Introduction to Global Thinking Podcast 01:07 Meet Dr. Joseph Nelesen 05:53 Understanding the SPIVA Report 13:15 Key Findings from the 2024 Report Card 19:04 The Challenge of Persistence in Active Management 25:54 Trends in Active Management and ETF Usage 27:57 Exploring Fixed Income Strategies 30:41 The Dynamics of Equal Weighting in S&P 500 31:55 Active vs. Passive Investing: A Deep Dive 35:06 The Role of Fees in Investment Performance 38:27 Understanding Long-Term Underperformance Trends 39:36 Due Diligence in Selecting Active Managers 41:52 The Evolution of Market Efficiency 44:22 Personal Insights and Recommendations   Disclosures: https://forstrong.com/disclosures/  Global Thinking Podcast Series - https://forstrong.com/podcast/  Global Thinking Insights - https://forstrong.com/insights/  Who is Forstrong Global - https://forstrong.com/who-we-are/  Ask Forstrong - https://forstrong.com/category/ask-forstrong/  Invest With Us - https://forstrong.com/invest-with-us/         

In this episode of the Global Thinking Podcast Rob Duncan sits down with Forstrong's CEO & CIO, Tyler Mordy, to unpack the evolving market landscape and the unmistakable “vibe shift” happening in global markets. The once-unstoppable dominance of U.S. equities and the MAG 7 is showing signs of fatigue while broader global markets are stepping into the spotlight. Europe is showing signs of economic resurgence, emerging markets are gaining traction, and investors are finally remembering there are stocks outside of the S&P 500.   They also break down the latest economic headlines, including the impact of Trump 2.0 policies, which were supposed to fuel growth but seem to be running in the opposite direction faster than Zelensky leaving the White House. Inflation, interest rates, and shifting investment narratives all come into play, along with a fresh take on the Canadian economy's potential.   Is this the beginning of a new global investment era? Tune in for insights and a look at where smart money might be heading next.   Chapters 00:00 Introduction to Global Investing 01:08 Market Dynamics and the Trump Effect 07:38 The Shift from MAG-7 to Broader Markets 14:03 Europe's Economic Resurgence 21:37 Emerging Markets: A Turning Point 26:15 Interest Rates and Inflation Outlook 28:06 Inflation: The Central Concern 35:14 The Canadian Dollar and Global Trade 39:13 Exploring Wealth Beyond Finances 43:28 Closing Thoughts and Recommendations   The 5 Types of Wealth - https://www.the5typesofwealth.com/   Disclosures: https://forstrong.com/disclosures/ Global Thinking Podcast Series - https://forstrong.com/podcast/ Global Thinking Insights - https://forstrong.com/insights/ Who is Forstrong Global - https://forstrong.com/who-we-are/ Ask Forstrong - https://forstrong.com/category/ask-forstrong/ Invest With Us - https://forstrong.com/invest-with-us/  

In this episode of the Global Thinking podcast Rob sits down with Forstrong's Lead Portfolio Manager, David Kletz, to tackle two of the biggest forces shaping markets today: trade policy and technology. To start, they dive into the latest tariff turmoil, where Trump's abrupt policy flip-flop left markets scrambling. What does this unpredictability mean for global trade and investor confidence? David breaks down the broader economic uncertainty and how investors can position themselves amid shifting geopolitical tensions. To round it off the conversation turns to the tech sector, where DeepSeek rapid advancements sparked a major selloff in U.S. tech stocks raising questions about whether new leadership in artificial intelligence is emerging. Rob and David explore what this means for investors, sector rotations, and the future of innovation-driven market leadership.   Chapters 01:06 Market Reactions to AI Developments 03:11 Impact of Tariffs on Investment Strategies 06:52 Sector Analysis and Portfolio Protection 10:42 Opportunities in Global Markets 13:24 AI Developments and Market Implications 18:36 Interest Rates and Currency Volatility   Disclosures: https://forstrong.com/disclosures/ Global Thinking Podcast Series - https://forstrong.com/podcast/ Global Thinking Insights - https://forstrong.com/insights/ Who is Forstrong Global - https://forstrong.com/who-we-are/ Ask Forstrong - https://forstrong.com/category/ask-forstrong/ Invest With Us - https://forstrong.com/invest-with-us/ 

In this episode of the Global Thinking podcast, host Rob Duncan sits down with Adam Payne, President and Chief Compliance Officer of Kinsted Wealth, for a deep dive into the evolving world of alternative investments. With market uncertainty and traditional asset classes facing headwinds, alternatives have taken center stage—but how can investors truly access them? Rob and Adam explore the critical role of manager selection, due diligence, and industry trends shaping the space. From challenges in accessibility to Kinsted's vision for democratizing alternatives, this episode offers valuable insights for investors looking to expand their portfolios beyond the conventional. As alternative investments gain traction, understanding what truly defines them—and how they fit into a diversified portfolio—has never been more important. Adam shares why Kinsted Wealth has embraced this shift, emphasizing the need for strong manager selection and the hurdles of liquidity and accessibility that individual investors face. With growing interest in alternatives, education remains key for both investors and advisors looking to navigate this complex yet promising space.   Chapters: 01:07 Exploring Alternative Investments 05:43 Defining Alternative Investments 08:06 The Role of Alternatives in Portfolios 10:59 Manager Selection and Due Diligence 16:34 Access to Alternative Investments 20:24 Industry Trends in Alternatives 26:43 Lessons Learned and Challenges in Alternatives 31:34 Future Developments at Kinsted Wealth   Disclosures: https://forstrong.com/disclosures/  Global Thinking Podcast Series - https://forstrong.com/podcast/  Global Thinking Insights - https://forstrong.com/insights/  Who is Forstrong Global - https://forstrong.com/who-we-are/  Ask Forstrong - https://forstrong.com/category/ask-forstrong/  Invest With Us - https://forstrong.com/invest-with-us/  

In this episode Rob joins Forstrong CEO and Chief Investment Officer, Tyler Mordy, to unpack the defining moments of 2024 and the forces shaping 2025. The past year was further evidence we are not in a traditional economic cycle. In the face of elevated volatility, geopolitical tensions, and a charged political landscape markets powered higher. Yet, amidst the chaos, two themes stood tall: the commanding influence of tech giants and the unexpected resilience of global economic growth. Fast forward to 2025, and the drama continues—think Netflix-worthy twists. Trump 2.0 is shaking up the global order, reviving tariffs and hinting at economic annexation with Canada in the crosshairs. Meanwhile, Canada faces a leadership vacuum, a declared “productivity emergency”, and interest rate cuts that seem to be losing their punch. South of the border, U.S. equity valuations are flirting with new records as rate cuts may be postponed and government spending finally tightens. Globally, the stakes are just as high. China's deflationary concerns are sending shockwaves through markets, while Europe grapples with pivotal elections that could redefine its economic trajectory.  This episode delivers sharp insights into these unfolding narratives, offering investors a lens to navigate a year where resilience and rivalry go hand in hand.   Chapters 00:00 2024 Review: A Year of Volatility 15:05 2025 Outlook: Key Themes and Trends 17:26 Political Landscape: Elections and Economic Policies 22:07 Trump 2.0: Implications for Canada and Global Trade 28:06 Global Economic Dynamics and the Role of the U.S. 30:28 Canada's Economic Challenges and Opportunities 32:15 The Impact of Interest Rates on Economic Growth 36:00 China's Economic Policy and Global Implications 42:04 Reflections: Documentaries and Personal Insights   Disclosures: https://forstrong.com/disclosures/ Global Thinking Podcast Series - https://forstrong.com/podcast/ Global Thinking Insights - https://forstrong.com/insights/ Who is Forstrong Global - https://forstrong.com/who-we-are/ Ask Forstrong - https://forstrong.com/category/ask-forstrong/ Invest With Us - https://forstrong.com/invest-with-us/ 

In this episode of the Global Thinking Podcast, host Rob Duncan welcomes Keith Dicker, Founder and Chief Investment Officer at IceCap Asset Management, for an in-depth exploration of the global financial landscape. Keith shares captivating insights from his unique career path, the art of global investing, the power of networking, and why risk management remains the cornerstone of successful strategies.   Rob and Keith unpack the implications of climbing long-term interest rates, the mounting pressures of government debt and why this could lead to greater opportunities in the future. Keith dives into the intricate dance of inflation and energy markets, offering a sharp perspective on how central bank policies are shaping investment challenges and why you need to keep an eye on currency markets.   Chapters 00:00 Introduction to Global Investing Philosophy 01:34 Keith Dicker's Journey in Investment Management 05:42 Market Outlook: Opportunities and Risks 06:10 US Market Dynamics and Economic Indicators 10:04 Long-Term Interest Rates and Economic Growth 12:31 Government Debt and Fiscal Challenges 15:52 Global Savings and Investment Strategies 18:46 Currency Markets and Risk Management 22:31 US Economic Resilience and Investment Opportunities 31:41 Inflation Trends and Market Implications 32:09 Inflation Trends and Predictions 35:31 Energy Market Dynamics 37:23 Investment Strategies for Canadians 40:50 Market Opportunities and Concerns 44:04 Central Bank Policies and Currency Dynamics 50:50 Final Thoughts and Recommendations

2024 is proving to be another year full of surprises. Investors have been bracing for recession as a waterfall of misleading signals have dominated headlines. While many braced for a looming recession, markets defied expectations with strong returns—leaving many sidelined in cash or GICs, missing out on the upside. In this episode of the Global Thinking Podcast, Rob sits down with Forstrong's CEO and CIO, Tyler Mordy, to unpack the themes from Tyler's latest article, 5 Questions Keeping Investors Up at Night. Together, they tackle the big questions shaping today's investment landscape: Where are we in the economic cycle? Are geopolitical shocks here to stay? What impact could the U.S. election bring? Is China's economic stimulus a real game-changer? And, finally, what does the future hold for the powerhouse MAG-7 tech stocks? Join us for a deep dive into these pressing topics and find out why keeping perspective—and staying invested—matters now more than ever.   Chapters 00:00 Introduction 01:07 The Five Questions 02:36 Where are we in the Economic Cycle? 10:40 Are Geopolitical Shocks Becoming More Frequent? 17:06 What are the Implications of US Elections? 24:54 Are China's Economic Stimulus a Game Changer? 30:14 What is the Future of the MAG-7 Tech Stocks?   Disclosures: https://forstrong.com/disclosures/ Global Thinking Podcast Series - https://forstrong.com/podcast/ Global Thinking Insights - https://forstrong.com/insights/  Who is Forstrong Global - https://forstrong.com/who-we-are/ Ask Forstrong - https://forstrong.com/category/ask-forstrong/ Invest With Us - https://forstrong.com/invest-with-us/  

Financial technology, or Fintech, in Canada has traditionally trailed behind the U.S. by nearly a decade. Until recently, even basic processes like virtual onboarding were rare in Canada, where advisors and clients often dealt with stacks of paper for signatures and mailed-off documents. But a global pandemic has accelerated change, bringing digital solutions and smartphone-driven client experiences to the forefront.   In this episode of Global Thinking, Rob sits down with Oliver Yoon, Head of Harness Investment Management, to explore the rapidly evolving Canadian Fintech landscape. Together, they discuss Oliver's extensive experience in finance, Harness's mission to empower advisors with independent investment solutions, and how technology is transforming client interactions. They also dive into the role of AI in financial services and the exciting future for advisors embracing innovation.   Chapters 00:00 Introduction 01:07 Oliver Career in Finance 06:24 Understanding Harness and Its Role 09:56 The Importance of Independence in Canada 13:02 A Fintech Solution for Advisors 18:29 AI's Role in Financial Services 20:29 Future Opportunities for Harness 22:24 Competition and Unique Offerings 24:33 Personal Insights and Closing Remarks   Disclosures: https://forstrong.com/disclosures/ Global Thinking Podcast Series - https://forstrong.com/podcast/ Global Thinking Insights - https://forstrong.com/insights/  Who is Forstrong Global - https://forstrong.com/who-we-are/ Ask Forstrong - https://forstrong.com/category/ask-forstrong/ Invest With Us - https://forstrong.com/invest-with-us/  

Over the past year, China has grappled with escalating challenges—from a real estate meltdown to tech crackdowns and slowing growth—leading many investors to deem the country "un-investable." However, recent policy moves from Beijing, including significant interest rate cuts and liquidity injections, may point to a major inflection point ahead.   In this episode, Rob Duncan speaks with Forstrong's Research Analyst, Shibo Gu, on the ground in Northern China. Together, they unpack the latest stimulus measures and their potential impact on investors eyeing opportunities in the world's second-largest economy. Is this renewed optimism justified, or should caution still prevail?   Chapters 00:00 Introduction to China's Economic Landscape 03:28 Stimulus Measures and Their Implications 08:42 Investment Opportunities in the Wake of Stimulus 12:04 Market Outlook and Investor Sentiment 18:09 On-the-Ground Insights from China   www.forstrong.com   Forstrong Insights   Previous posts on visiting China. Ask Forstrong: Postcard from China Global Thinking: Postcard from China, Part 2

Investors have been pouring into Canadian ETFs at an unprecedented rate in 2024. While cash and US equity ETFs have dominated flows this year, recent trends suggest a shift is underway. Weaker economic data and volatility in Japan have investors worried, while international markets present compelling opportunities.   In the latest Global Thinking episode, Rob sits down with Daniel Straus, Director of ETF Research at National Bank, to discuss recent ETF trends and investment flows. Together, they explore why investors should focus on global opportunities and how to navigate the period ahead.   Show Notes: 00:00 - Exploring ETF Flows and Market Trends 05:08 - The Growth of the ETF Market 08:25 - Fixed Income Flows and the Demand for Cash 12:41 - The Appeal of International and Emerging Market ETFs 15:47 - The Unwinding of the Carry Trade in Japan 19:59 - Interest Rate Policy and Rate Movements 22:55 - Canadian Equity ETF Inflows and Home Bias 23:25 - Investing in Canada's Energy Markets 25:16 - Canadian Banks: A Demand Spot 28:06 - The Growth of Active ETFs in Canada 30:25 - Covered Call ETFs: Present Income vs. Future Upside 37:46 - Exploring Consciousness and Free Will    

When asked about the prognosis for markets, American financier J. P. Morgan once famously quipped, “they will fluctuate”.   That statement is not meant to be dismissive of recent market volatility: the first half of 2024 has faced a long list of new realities from an AI fervour to contentious global elections. But, today more than ever, wealth accumulation demands a focus on fundamentals and looking beyond recent hype. Currently, there are historic opportunities to pivot into new investment themes as markets find a new footing and fresh macroeconomic trends emerge.   In this discussion, Rob Duncan, Senior Vice President, Portfolio Manager & Lead ESG Officer, sits down with Forstrong Portfolio Manager, Terry Shaunessy, to explore where investors might be succumbing to market exuberance and identifying strategies to navigate volatility while achieving their financial objectives.   Disclosures: https://forstrong.com/disclosures/   Global Thinking Podcast Forstrong Insights Forstrong Dashboard: Gone Till November 5 Minute Macro: Is the Trump Trade On? Ask Forstrong: AI Reality Check Forstrong Quarterly Rebalance Q3 2024 Ask Forstrong: A Postcard from Mexico 5 Minute Macro: Election Waves and Market Moves Forstrong Dashboard: Metals Rockin' Out Ask Forstrong: Emerging Markets, The Bull is Back Forstrong Dashboard: Feeling EM Boldened Ask Forstrong: A Broadening Bull Market? Forstrong Dashboard: Breaking Breadth Forstrong 5 Minute Macro: A Broadening Bull Market? Forstrong Rebalance Summary: Q2 2024 Invest in Forstrong ETFs

Everyone is talking about Nvidia. Just 2 years ago the stock was worth a mere $400 billion. Now, depending on the time of day, it is worth somewhere around $3 trillion and was briefly the most valuable company in the world. Investors should not overcomplicate things here: Nvidia and the broader AI theme are in the midst of a speculative mania.   Of course, we have been here before. Investment stories, much like the current one, can be intoxicating and lure every last investor into the trade. During such times, diversification seems unnecessary. Who wants it when “one and done” portfolio decisions look so easy? Yet, investors invariably paying heavily for having taken on concentrated risk exposures. The late 1990s are a prime example.   At times like this, it is always useful to revisit the role of the portfolio manager: why do clients pay us to manage their wealth? It is not for flawless clairvoyance. Rather, we are paid to anticipate probable risks, prepare for opportunities and, importantly, not lose our proverbial minds when everyone else has lost theirs. In the latest podcast, Rob Duncan, Senior Vice President, Portfolio Manager & Lead ESG Officer, sits down with Tyler Mordy, CEO & CIO of Forstrong, to discuss the recent volatility in Nvidia and implications for the broader market.   Global Thinking Podcast Forstrong Insights Forstrong Quarterly Rebalance Q3 2024 Ask Forstrong: A Postcard from Mexico 5 Minute Macro: Election Waves and Market Moves Forstrong Dashboard: Metals Rockin' Out Ask Forstrong: Emerging Markets, The Bull is Back Forstrong Dashboard: Feeling EM Boldened Ask Forstrong: A Broadening Bull Market? Forstrong Dashboard: Breaking Breadth Forstrong 5 Minute Macro: A Broadening Bull Market? Forstrong Rebalance Summary: Q2 2024 Invest in Forstrong ETFs

Canadian ETF inflows continued at a brisk pace in May, bringing the year-to-date number to more than $24 billion (handily beating their mutual fund counterparts). Total assets now stand at more than $432 billion with 1407 ETFs to choose from. With all this selection, how do investors know which ETF to buy?   To help answer these questions Rob Duncan, Senior Vice President, Portfolio Manager & Lead ESG Officer at Forstrong, sits down with Patrick McEntyre, Managing Director and Co-Head of Institutional Sales of ETFs at National Bank Financial Group, to discuss: Key trends within the ETF industry Where investors are allocating funds How changes in ETF flows align with Forstrong's investment outlook and positioning In addition, Patrick walks through how National Bank provides liquidity on large trades, when ETFs can be more efficient than stocks and bonds, and why the rush to International and Emerging Market equities might be at a tipping point.   Global Thinking Podcast Forstrong Insights Forstrong Dashboard: Metals Rockin' Out Ask Forstrong: Emerging Markets, The Bull is Back Forstrong Dashboard: Feeling EM Boldened Ask Forstrong: A Broadening Bull Market? Forstrong Dashboard: Breaking Breadth Forstrong 5 Minute Macro: A Broadening Bull Market? Forstrong Rebalance Summary: Q2 2024 Invest in Forstrong ETFs

Looking back on the month of April, it was a tough time for many investors. Broadly, many stock market sectors broke their winning streak. Bonds didn't fare any better as continued strong global economic data pressured long-term yields higher.   As the macro regime continues to unfold, Forstrong's investment team continues to believe the world is transitioning toward an inflationary boom. Increased volatility is a key tenet of this shifting economic landscape. But the theme of broadening performance (away from the handful of US mega-cap stocks which carried markets last year) is alive and well. In April, commodity-sensitive exposures and emerging markets equities staged impressive rallies.   In this episode, Rob sits down with Forstrong Lead PM, David Kletz, to unpack these latest development. They also dive into why an improving outlook in emerging markets could lead to outsized returns this year.   Global Thinking Podcast Forstrong Insights Ask Forstrong: A Broadening Bull Market? Forstrong Dashboard: Breaking Breadth Forstrong 5 Minute Macro: A Broadening Bull Market? Forstrong Rebalance Summary: Q2 2024 Invest in Forstrong ETFs

US equities have taken center stage over the last few years and are touching all-time highs as consumers continue to show strength with healthy balance sheets and less sensitivity to higher interest rates. But is all this good news already priced in?   What may be surprising is that returns are no longer being powered primarily by the “Magnificent 7”. Instead, forgotten and unloved sectors are now witnessing a steady bid.   In this episode Rob sits with BMO's Chief Investment Officer, Sadiq Adatia, to talk about their recent market outlook and why they believe a broadening market rally is in the cards for 2024. While high quality and financials in the US are in focus, gold and commodity-oriented equities could see a continuation of strength.   Global Thinking Podcast Forstrong Insights Ask Forstrong: A Broadening Bull Market? Forstrong Dashboard: Breaking Breadth Forstrong 5 Minute Macro: A Broadening Bull Market? Forstrong Rebalance Summary: Q2 2024 Invest in Forstrong ETFs

Interest Rate Obsession: Are Markets Missing the Bigger Picture?   Markets have found a new obsession to dote upon: timing central bank rate cutes. Everywhere you look, interest rate expectations continue to dominate headlines and market narratives. Imminent recession fears have been replaced with questions on the timing and magnitude of interest rate cuts, but interest rates are only part of the story. The larger trend is the impressive resilience not only of the US economy but also in other parts of the world.   After pricing in up to 6 rate cuts to start the year investor expectations have quickly scaled back to 3. One could even wonder, are we actually in the “no landing” economy?   In this episode Rob sits down with Forstrong Lead PM, David Kletz, to talk about expectations on rate cuts and the possibility of a “Bull Steepening” on the yield curve. Additionally, they walk through Forstrong's recent strategy changes and why they see greater opportunity in US mid-caps, Emerging Markets debt and Swedish equities.   For more information on our podcasts please visit: https://forstrong.com/podcast/ Forstrong Dashboard: Breaking Breadth Ask Forstrong: A Broadening Bull Market? Forstrong Global Insights    

In this episode Rob sits down with Michael Greenberg, Senior Vice President and Portfolio Manager at Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions, to ask questions about their market outlook and where they see opportunity in the year ahead. Throughout the podcast Mike shares his perspectives on inflation, expectations for interest rate cuts, concentration in US equity's “AI enablers” and Bitcoin's impact on portfolio returns. While Mike remains positive on the US avoiding a recession and continued equity performance, he makes an interesting case for opportunities within Emerging Markets. Tune in to hear more. For more information on our podcasts please visit: https://forstrong.com/podcast/  Bitcoin ETFs: Crypto Moves Further Into The Mainstream Forstrong Global Insights   Bio: Michael Greenberg is a senior vice president and portfolio manager for Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions and is a member of the Investment Strategy & Research Committee. Mike specializes in fixed income strategy and has co-portfolio management responsibilities for all Canada-based managed programs, including Franklin Quotential, Franklin LifeSmart Sustainable and Franklin ETF Portfolios. He also manages institutional mandates in North America. Mike holds a bachelor of commerce with honors in marketing and international management from the University of Ottawa. He also holds the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) and Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst (CAIA) designations.  

One year ago, market forecasters were in absolute agreement. A Bloomberg consensus survey showed that 100% of the respondents predicted a global recession in 2023.  Rising interest rates would surely create an inevitable “hard landing”. When such agreement exists in the investment world one must ask the obvious question, “What don't we already know?”.     Since then, fears over hard landings have vanished as the powerful surge in US-led growth has thinned out the recession camp. But less discussed is that economic activity outside America has also firmed, led by a liftoff in global trade.   Does this mean that the bull market in US stocks will also start broadening out? We think so. In fact, investor optimism has created bull markets from New York to Tokyo.  Japan, France, Canada, Switzerland, Germany, Taiwan, Netherlands, Denmark, Italy, Brazil, and India are in or near bull market territory touching highs last seen in the Post Covid rally.   So, what don't we already know?   As the Magnificent 7 continue to grab headlines and push prices and valuations to historical highs, opportunities for a follow through trade are all around us. In this episode Rob and Tyler discuss why a broadening rally is so important and how best to position portfolios to profit from this emerging macro trend.

On this episode Rob sits down with our good friend Rodrigo Gordillo from Resolve Asset Management. Rodrigo has a fascinating background and shares how hyperinflation in 1980s Peru shaped his life and investment philosophy. He also discusses why emerging markets have been more proactive in combating inflation over the last few years, and why inflation volatility will be higher this decade than the last. For more information on our podcasts please visit: https://forstrong.com/podcast/  Bitcoin ETFs: Crypto Moves Further Into The Mainstream Forstrong Global Insights    

Welcome back to all our listeners. This is now Season 4 of the Forstrong Global Thinking podcast and there is no shortage of topics to dive into. In this episode Rob sits down with Tyler Mordy, CEO and CIO, to discuss which macro trends are shaping the investment landscape.  Looking back, last year was one of heightened risk aversion: some $1.3 trillion dollars ran into global money market funds. Meanwhile, our investment team has a thesis that may stretch minds: we are entering a new risk-taking cycle based on an entirely different set of macroeconomic conditions and investment leadership. As 2024 progresses, Forstrong forecasts recession fears will again recede, and aggressive rate cut expectations will be unwound.  Tune-in to hear why shifts away from cash will lead to a big rotation into the cheap, cyclically sensitive and inflation hedging assets. Click HERE if you would like to subscribe to our weekly emails.  Forstrong Super Trends - Macronova Ask Forstrong - Inflation: Mission Accomplished  

The US bond selloff over the last few years is on par with the largest ever in history. In this podcast Rob sits down with Forstrong Lead PM, David Kletz, to discuss market performance and what “higher for longer” interest rates means for investors. While this new environment has dampened confidence and has everyone running into the perceived safety of cash, the reality is that cash rarely outperforms risk assets for extended periods. Meanwhile, several investment opportunities have now become more attractive, given lower valuations, higher yields and — given extremely negative sentiment — the potential for upside surprise to materialize.

In part 1, Rob Duncan sat down with Reza Samahin, Portfolio Manager at KJ Harrison, to discuss the big ideas behind Artificial Intelligence and what impact it may have on the future In part 2, Rob and Reza discuss the implications of AI from an investment perspective. Is this Dot Com 2.0? Will investors benefit from an unfolding capex cycle driven by AI? Are valuations on AI-related stocks justifiable?     Tune in as they discuss the next phase of AI and where investors should direct their attention. 

Last month 2,600 tech industry professionals signed a petition led by Elon Musk and Apple co-founder, Steve Wozniak, to halt AI development until there was a clear understanding of its full implications. Although he did not sign the letter, Geoffrey Hinton, the so-called “Godfather of AI”, resigned from Google to warn the world stating, "AI could be a greater threat to humankind than climate change".  In this part 1 of this 2-part series, Rob sits down with Reza Samahin, Portfolio Manager at KJ Harrison, to discuss the big ideas behind artificial intelligence and what impacts it may have for humans overall. Will we all be out of a job? When will it become sentient? In part 2, Rob will speak with Reza again to discuss the implications of AI from a macro investing perspective.   Reza Samahin, P.Eng, CFA Portfolio Manager Reza Samahin is a Portfolio Manager and a member of the KJH Investment Team. Reza focuses exclusively on investing in global technology companies. Reza has over 20 years combined experience in capital markets and the technology industry. Prior to joining KJ Harrison Investors in 2011, Reza was a Portfolio Manager at Natcan Investment Management Ltd. and Altamira Management Ltd. where he was a Lipper Fund Award recipient in the Technology category. Reza is a Professional Engineer and has held management positions at Amdocs Inc., Algorithmics Ltd. and IBM Labs.   Reza received a Bachelor of Applied Science (Engineering Science) from the University of Toronto.

It has been four long years since Forstrong last visited mainland China. In that time, the country faced a real estate collapse, technology crackdowns and more than 1100 days of brutal lockdowns. Given the size and scale of China's influence on the global economy, their reopening is something that smart investors need to monitor.   After a month on the mainland Shibo Gu, Forstrong's Research Analyst, sits down with Rob to talk about his firsthand experiences and Forstrong outlook on the awakening of the world's second largest economy. Additionally, they discuss whether the recent Alibaba spinoffs are a positive for the sector and which emerging countries are best positioned to benefit from the reopening.    Ask Forstrong: Postcard from China, Part 1 www.forstrong.com  

Coming off a surprisingly resilient Q1, Global Equities staged a rally for a second quarter despite the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and renewed fears of another 2008 financial crisis. While US markets staged a late rally to pull ahead of Canada, International markets continue to be global leaders. In this episode of Global Thinking, Rob sits down with Forstrong's Lead PM, David Kletz, to hear about structural changes impacting global markets and why International and Emerging Market equities might have a leg up over their American counterparts. To top it off, David shares some macro insights into Japan and why a rally could be imminent.   

Cette semaine, nous avons un invité très spécial pour notre podcast "Global Thinking". Omar Rayes de Forstrong s'assoit une deuxième fois avec l'Honorable Clément Gignac.   Clément a eu une longue et brillante carrière dans les secteurs public et privé. Sur la scène internationale, il a présidé en 2012 le Conseil de l'agenda mondial sur la compétitivité (division du Forum économique mondial). Il est également membre associé de la Conference of Business Economists, un groupe d'éminents économistes mondiaux basé à Washington, D.C. Il est maintenant membre du Sénat du Canada.   De 2012 jusqu'à sa récente nomination à titre de sénateur indépendant, M. Gignac a occupé le poste d'économiste en chef chez iA Groupe financier. Il était le porte-parole du Groupe sur les questions économiques et présidait le Comité d'Allocation d'Actifs. Avant de se joindre à iA Groupe financier, M. Gignac a travaillé comme économiste et stratège pour de grandes institutions financières, notamment comme économiste en chef pour la Financière Banque Nationale de 2000 à 2008.   Clément est également un ami de longue date de la firme et a travaillé en étroite collaboration avec notre équipe de gestion de placements dans le passé.   Dans cette vidéo, Omar et Clément discutent de la récente hausse des taux de la FED, de l'effondrement de la banque SVB et des principaux facteurs macroéconomiques, notamment l'inflation et la perspective d'une récession.

This week we have a very special guest for our “Global Thinking” Podcast. Forstrong's Omar Rayes sits down for a second time with the honorable Clément Gignac.   Clément has had a long and distinguished career in both the public and private sectors. On the international scene, he chaired in 2012 the Global agenda council on competitiveness (a division of the World Economic Forum). He is also an associate member of the Conference of Business Economists, a group of distinguished global economists based in Washington, D.C. He now serves as a member of the Senate of Canada.   From 2012 until his recent nomination as an independent Senator, Mr. Gignac held the position of Chief Economist at iA Financial Group. He was the Group's spokesperson on economic matters and chaired the Asset Allocation Committee. Prior to joining iA Financial Group, Mr. Gignac worked as an economist and strategist for major financial institutions, including as Chief Economist for National Bank Financial from 2000 to 2008.   Clément is also a long-time friend of the firm and has worked closely with our investment management team in the past.   In this video, Omar and Clément discuss the recent FED rate hike, the collapse of SVB Bank, and key macroeconomic factors including inflation and the prospect for a recession.

Silicon Valley's scrappy attitude of “move fast and break things” not only became standard start-up advice over the last decade, but quickly evolved into a global movement for the technology sector.  Yet, a rich irony has emerged. It turns out that customers can also move fast and break things. Last Thursday, depositors at Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) pulled $42 billion and, in a matter of hours on Friday, became the second largest bank failure in US history. Tune into Forstrong's latest podcast, where Rob Duncan sits down with Tyler Mordy to discuss the investment implications of these developments, including the following views: Forstrong's continuing negative outlook on the technology sector (Super Trend 3: Silicon Valley's Hangover). Reasons why a wider financial contagion, similar to 2008, is unlikely.  Why international assets will benefit from broken structural trendlines.

It has been a long string of surprises over the last year. The Fed was surprised inflation wasn't transitory. Investors were surprised to see the fastest rate hikes since the 1980s. Economists are now surprised we aren't in a recession.   Yet, in our view, the biggest surprise continues to be the resilience of the global economy – despite higher interest rates, economic growth has continued to chug along.   Where to from here? Our investment team continues to believe that this is a very different environment from the 2010s, when the market consistently over-estimated growth and inflation. The 2020s will be exactly the opposite: markets will now consistently underestimate growth and inflation.   In this episode Rob Duncan sits down with Forstrong CIO, Tyler Mordy, to discuss economic resiliency, opportunities in commodity exporting Emerging Markets and the growth boom now starting to unfold in Asia-Pacific.  

As it was in 2022, financial markets had their own Kafkaesque backdrop. Investors did not need to stretch their imaginations: reality did it for them. Supposedly rare events appeared more frequently than ever. All of this has forged an easy fraternity for those predicting more macro doom. Global pessimism is now higher than ever. Understandably, the pull of this narrative is powerful. Because the most recent threats to civilization were a pandemic and then an unforeseen war, we expect the next one to take the same existential form. But should we? Looking ahead, it should be clear that the last few years have marked a definitive end to the age of economic placidity of the 2010s — a metamorphosis of the macroenvironment. In fact, today's conditions are barely recognizable from the “new normal” features of sluggish growth and low inflation that dominated the last decade. To be sure, the coming metamorphosis will be uncomfortable at times. Different conditions will take some adjusting.  Yet many macro trends are spring-loaded to last for years. New bull markets are quietly beginning. More than ever, investors need to look out further and lean into long-term secular themes. Wide-angle global perspectives will be crucial to discern the path ahead and set the right investment roadmap.

It is now abundantly clear that last year was a hinge moment in history. The world of tomorrow will resemble nothing of what we see today. “All life is a process of breaking down, but the blows that do the dramatic side of the work…don't show their effect all at once.” Great American author F. Scott Fitzgerald once wrote in an essay for Esquire. The writer was referring to his personal challenges during the mid-1930s. But the observation could have applied to the global economy moving into 2022: we are only getting early glimpses of how transformational the pandemic has been. Full impacts are still to be seen. In this Part 1 episode Rob sit's down with Tyler to review, and grade the team, on our 2022 Super Trends which were published in December of 2021. Tune in to hear how our views played out during a transformative year and which trends continue to unfold in our Part 2 episode.  Links are below to read the entire article, don't forget to subscribe to Global Thinking podcast and emails.  Forstrong Super Trends 2022: World in Transition A Pandemic Reboot  A Clunk Transition to a Lower Carbon Future China No Longer a Deflationary Force Upon the World Canada: Stuck in the Middle Breaking Up Big Tech Policy Makers Fighting the Last War Global Inflation: The Force Has Awakened A special thank you to our partners and clients for joining us on this journey. It is a distinct privilege to steward your financial futures.

In this summer edition of the Global Thinking Podcast, Rob Duncan sits down with Forstrong's CEO and CIO, Tyler Mordy, to discuss the most topical macro issues moving markets today.  -Is the global economy in a recession or headed for one -Has inflation peaked or will it be more persistent -Why every bear market leads to a change in leadership -What are the investment implications To read more or subscribe to Forstrong's Global Insights, please visit Forstrong Global Thinking Insights. 

For those who have been hiding under a rock the last 6 months, global markets are in uncharted territory. In the face of slowing economic growth and surging inflation, central banks are increasing interest rates at levels not seen in over 30 years. How have markets responded? Global equity and bond markets have plunged deep into negative double-digit territory, an outcome not seen in over 70 years of recorded history. So where to from here? As the sugar high from a surging tech boom fades and interest rates begin to normalize, opportunities are emerging globally.  Consumption is still growing. The labour market remains robust. Capital Expenditure is positive. And yields are becoming attractive.   In this episode Rob sits down with the founder of Shaunessy Investment Counsel, and newest member of Forstrong, Terry Shaunessy, to talk about our recent partnership, his history on Bay St., and how ETFs and active asset allocation have helped his clients navigate volatile markets for over 20 years.

It is no surprise the last few months have been jarring for financial markets. The Fed, initially believing price spikes were short-term, were caught in an almost cartoon-like backpedal as inflation instead accelerated to a 40-year high. Now markets are on edge the Fed will tighten too much and short-circuit the economy. Forstrong's Tyler Mordy explains why he expects inflation to moderate and how global risk appetite will continue. 

The world has been transfixed by a strange spectacle: a scarcity of nearly everything. It has been a cinematic experience complete with congested shipping lanes, gas shortages and rationed microchips. This kind of drama is entirely unfamiliar a decade after the global financial crisis's chronic oversupply. Now, the gluts of the 2010s are giving way to a far different world. Welcome to the new shortage economy. Rob sits down with Forstrong's CIO, Tyler Mordy, to talk investment implications and why this could be a barn burner. 

Global stock markets maintain double digit gains year-to-date, but as the recent selloff deepens market pundits continue to point fingers and provide reasons why this is the end. In this podcast we sit down with Forstrong PM, David Kletz, to discuss Evergrande's impact on markets and our recent portfolio rebalance. Not surprisingly, we see the macro environment remaining supportive into year-end. 

Viewing the globe, we note a very unusual situation — most likely attributable to the post-Covid rebound. For the first time on record, developed nations have been growing faster than global GDP growth. And global growth is currently faster than that of emerging countries. This must resolve itself in one way or another. What will be the likely outcome? Rob Duncan speaks with Forstrong Portfolio Manager, David Kletz, to discuss their recent rebalance and whether or not the reflationary trade still has room to run. 

What happens when the world is cooped up — in some cases against its will — for more than a year? We are now getting answers to this global experiment. To no one's surprise, it turns out many are increasingly unwilling to delay gratification which has sent inflation soaring all around the world. Rob Duncan sits down with Forstrong's CIO, Tyler Mordy, to discuss how the pandemic is creating an inflationary regime shift with lasting impacts few can predict. 

Has crypto-mania gone too far? Naysayers have an almost unlimited arsenal of reasons why this bubble will pop and leave investors in a wake of devastation. Citing everything from security issues to regulation, environmental impact to the explosion of offerings, these things should come with a warning label. In a recent Ask Forstrong, The Cryptocurrency Bug: Catch Me if You Can, our CIO, Tyler Mordy, hammers home these warnings with cold hard facts. Cryptocurrencies are highly volatile. Investors have lost billions in fraud and theft. There are now 4000 currency offerings claiming to be the future. And, last but not least, government regulation is cracking down to thwart tax-evaders and black market participants. Warning label firmly attached. Yet many investors still have burning questions. Will cryptos impact my life and should I care about them? This is a much harder question to answer. To tackle this question Rob Duncan sits down with Reza Samahin, Portfolio Manager and Professional Engineer, to provide insights into blockchain protocol, currency mining, differences between Bitcoin and Ethereum, smart contracts and decentralized finance. We made the pivot from cryptocurrencies as the future of fiat to providing a future benefit and financial utility. It wasn’t easy and it took 40 minutes, but if you want to impress your friends on your next Zoom call then click the link.

Social media platforms take center stage as rWallStreetBets channels it's Reddit commentary to prop up stocks impacted by the pandemic and targeted by hedge fund short-sellers. In this podcast Rob Duncan sits down with Forstrong's CEO & CIO, Tyler Mordy, to discuss this incredible phenomenon and how situations like this have played out in the past. While it received incredible headlines, investors should focus on what is really driving portfolio returns.  

Rob Duncan sits down with Forstrong's CEO/CIO, Tyler Mordy, to talk about the year that was 2020, our outlook for 2021, and why we need to learn the Charleston in what could be seen as our generations roaring 20's. 

Is it possible to have unlimited money? If so, is that a good thing or a bad thing?  Rob Duncan sits down with Forstrong's CEO/CIO, Tyler Mordy, to talk about Modern Monetary Theory and why this new way of thinking could create new economic realities to increase growth globally. We break this theory down into its basic building blocks and challenge traditional thinking to see opportunities where others do not.   

Your Global Thinking host, Rob Duncan, sits down with Forstrong's CIO, Tyler Mordy, to discuss Covid's impact on markets, policy and their investment outlook. While a second wave forms and concerns over another shutdown looms, Tyler explains why these outcomes would be less impactful and how a paradigm shift in policy will power growth going forward.  If you would like to access the slides, please reach out to your Forstrong contact. 

Here we are again, as if nothing much has changed since mid-February. Never mind that the very existence and survival of the entire human race had been threatened in the interim. Most global equity markets have recovered the vast majority of their year-to-date losses, and in fact, the risk-on rally now appears to be broadening into additional sectors and asset classes. In this update Rob sits down with Forstrong’s portfolio manager David Kletz to discuss the current state of financial markets and the corresponding changes recently implemented in client portfolios.

Rob Duncan sits down with Michael Greenberg, Vice President & Portfolio Manager for Franklin Templeton Multi-Asset Solutions. Over the course of 30 minutes they discuss their portfolio positioning throughout the pandemic, the shape of the recovery and whether investor FOMO has dislocated markets from reality. While market challenges remain, Michael highlights opportunities within global credit, European equities and how investors are eagerly awaiting a dip.

Rob Duncan sits down with Horizons Executive Vice President of ETF Strategy, Mark Noble, to discuss why the recent spike in volatility has resurfaced old myths and misconceptions about fixed income ETFs. We get back to basics on their structure and mechanics to explain how they provide price discovery and liquidity, even in times of stress. 

Coronavirus and all its catchphrases - flattening the curve, social distancing and so on - has taken a wrecking ball to daily routines. Working from home has brought new challenges. Calendars have been emptied and commute times cut. But occupational hazards have emerged: cabin fever, the close proximity of the cookie jar and, for some of us, new colleagues of the Crayola-wielding kind.  Rob Duncan sits down with Forstrong's President and CIO, Tyler Mordy, to talk about their recent portfolio rebalance and how they are positioning in the face of an unprecedented and historical stimulus package. 

Corona virus fears finally pierced investor consciousness and markets have sold off dramatically this week. Rob Duncan sits down with Forstrong's President and CIO, Tyler Mordy, to discuss the market reaction and potential impact to growth going forward. How will this impact global GDP? Does this change our view for 2020? Is this a buying opportunity? We tackle these questions and more.   

Rob Duncan sits down with AGF's CEO and Chief Investment Officer, Kevin McCreadie, to review their 2020 Outlook and why he thinks this investment cycle could go into extra innings.  From investment prospects in Canada, US election outcomes, increasing EM exposure and even space travel. Over the course of 30 minutes we cover everything you need to start the year off right.