Podcasts about clocktower group

Marko Papic is the Chief Strategist at Clocktower Group, where he provides research on geopolitics, macroeconomics, and markets. Marko recently published Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future, an imminently readable book with colorful examples of political analysis. Marko's approach is akin to Moneyball for politics, challenging the orthodoxy of how others traditionally make investment decisions. Our conversation covers Marko's upbringing, the flaws of most political analysis, and his constraints-based framework. We then turn to the obvious political topic at hand – next week's U.S. Presidential election. We discuss his views of different possible outcomes on the U.S. equity market, rates, tech stocks, China, private equity, ESG, Europe, and emerging markets.   Learn More  Follow Ted on Twitter at @tseides or LinkedIn  Subscribe to the mailing list  Access Transcript with Premium Membership 

Today's guest is Marko Papic, Marko leads BCA Research's BCA Access and developed GeoMacro Research, the first discretionary macro-geopolitical investment strategy in finance. He connects clients with a broad expert network and custom research, having founded BCA's Geopolitical Strategy service. His book, Geopolitical Alpha, presents a framework for predicting investment outcomes. Previously, Marko was a Partner and Chief Strategist at Clocktower Group, advising institutional investors. His work is included in the CAIA curriculum and The Palgrave Handbook of Contemporary Geopolitics. Starting as a Senior Analyst at Stratfor, he has lectured at Stanford and Georgetown. Marko holds advanced degrees from the University of Texas and UBC.   This is the second time we have had the privilege of hosting Marko, almost 4 years ago on the button. Marko is no doubt one of our favorite guests in the history of this podcast.   In this episode, we cover the U.S. election, who will win and what America's foreign policy will look like for Trump or Harris. We discuss the powerful American consumer driven economy, how to position your portfolio, the untapped equity in American's homes, and getting us current on the last 4 years since the last time Marko joined us.   Today's hosts are Steve Curley, CFA (Founder, 55 North Private Wealth) & co-host Chris Cannon (CIO/Principal, FirsTrust)   Links: https://www.bcaresearch.com https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/report/gmac/what-geomacro/100026   Please enjoy the episode.  

After a four decade relative period of global stability, the world order has fractured and grown more unpredictable. The new multi-polar reality poses a major problem for leaders and investors as our traditional guardrails, narratives, and structures seem less useful. How should an investor integrate geopolitical trends into their investment thesis and what pitfalls and common mistakes should we watch out for? Guests: Anastasia Titarchuk, CIO, New York State Common Retirement Fund Marko Papic, Partner, Clocktower Group

Marko Papic, chief strategist at Clocktower Group, says that two wars have had less impact on markets that many observers have expected because the market has recognized that geopolitical events require a direct tie to earnings before they can truly dampen gains. Because of that -- but also because of issues he sees with the domestic economy -- Papic says investors who are giving up on international markets and getting their diversification by overweighting U.S. multinational stocks are making a mistake. In a wide-ranging interview, Papic notes that he expects to be bullish right up to Election Day in November, but the results of the vote -- particularly if they give either presidential candidate the control of Congress to boot -- could have broad and dramatic impacts on the market in 2025 and beyond. Also on the show, John Cole Scott of Closed-End Fund Advisors reviews the first quarter results for closed-end funds, interval funds and business-development companies, noting that it was a strong period with more than 90 percent of closed-end issues making money in the first three months of 2024, although municipal bond funds continued their lagging ways. Plus, Chuck gets to talk about his childhood fantasy car with University of Toronto professor Dimitry Anastakis, whose new book is "Dream Car: Malcolm Bricklin's Fantastic SV1 and the End of Industrial Modernity."

After a four decade relative period of global stability, the world order has fractured and grown more unpredictable. The new multi-polar reality poses a major problem for leaders and investors as our traditional guardrails, narratives, and structures seem less useful. How should an investor integrate geopolitical trends into their investment thesis and what pitfalls and common mistakes should we watch out for? Guests: Anastasia Titarchuk, CIO, New York State Common Retirement Fund Marko Papic, Partner, Clocktower Group

Capital formation, aka fundraising, is the unglamorous side of venture capital. Building a strategy and executing it is the reality for both emerging managers and established brands. Our guest today is Ashton Rosin, an Operating Partner and Head of Capital Formation at Lowercarbon Capital.Ashton shares her amazing journey working in the non-profit and NGO space in Washington DC before making a complete 180 and joining the fast-paced world of hedge funds as an IR manager. Ashton explains how her time working in investor relations at a hedge fund opened her eyes to how other asset classes were so far behind when it came to managing investor relationships and how the role at Lower Carbon came to be.Lastly, we get some tips and tricks for other emerging managers struggling to raise capital and how narrowing down your target list of LPs when fundraising is a better approach than spraying and praying. And John Ruffolo is back to dissect the week's news.About Ashton Rosin:Ashton Rosin is an Operating Partner and the Head of Capital Formation at Lowercarbon Capital where she leads the firm's partnerships with existing and future investors.Prior to Lowercarbon, Ashton was the Head of Investor Relations at Obvious Ventures where she led capital-raising efforts and built solutions for relationship management, including the ESG considerations of limited partners. She started her career in financial services leading investor relations at Clocktower Group, helping the firm to conceptualize and scale new offerings across the hedge fund and venture capital landscapes. Before her financial services career, Ashton spent her time advocating for international disability rights through her academic, policy, and direct service pursuits around the world. Ashton holds a BA in International Development and a minor in Disability Studies from UCLA. In this episode, we discuss:(1:22) Cohen and Ruffolo delve into Openview's unexpected pause in new investments and its potential causes.(2:26) Exploring the impact of possible key man clauses and layoffs at Openview.(4:10) Predictions about LPs' reactions to Openview's investment suspension.(5:37) The implications for founders backed by Openview are questioned.(7:18) Skepticism about Elon Musk's involvement in multiple businesses.(10:32) Ruffolo shares his views on Bitcoin and Ethereum's roles in investment.(14:00) Ashton recounts her journey from South Africa to the U.S. and her career shift to venture capital.(19:31) Describing her role evolution at Clocktower Group and learning in asset management.(25:10) Ashton discusses the significance of building strategic investor relationships in a climate-focused fund.(30:15) Challenges faced by emerging managers in diversifying their investor base.(36:49) The importance of personal branding for GPs in capital formation and engaging LPs.(40:56) Strategies for maintaining communication with LPs during fundraising gaps.(43:39) Insights on hiring a dedicated head of capital and the use of placement agents.(48:46) Emphasizing research for targeting prospective LPs and the benefits of networking in capital formation.Fast Favorites:*

Last year, Alpine Macro's chief global strategist Chen Zhao shared his global macro views with us, highlighting his optimism for the US economy and questioning Xi's policies for China. Reuniting with Clocktower Group's chief strategist, Marko Papic, the pair will delve into China's possible implosion, the unexpected strength of the US economy, their outlook for markets, and the Ukrainian situation. To watch Marko and Chen's conversation last year, please follow this link: https://www.realvision.com/shows/the-essential-conversation/videos/heres-what-you-wont-read-in-the-ft-xL8X Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In this episode we are joined by Marko Papic, a renowned expert in geopolitical risk. Marko shares his insights on the shifting dynamics of a multipolar global environment and its impact on climate change. Get ready for an intellectually stimulating conversation as we uncover the intersection of politics, finance, and global challenges. Stay tuned for an episode packed with expertise and thought-provoking insights on geopolitics and its implications for investors. Listen in!

► Zur Opening Bell+: https://bit.ly/360kochpc * Ein Podcast - featured by Handelsblatt. Helfen Sie uns, unsere Podcasts weiter zu verbessern. Ihre Meinung ist uns wichtig: www.handelsblatt.com/zufriedenheit Ein militärischer Konflikt zwischen China und Taiwan? Wie fest sitzt Putin im russischen Sattel und erleben wir den Niedergang der US-Vorherrschaft? Im dritten Teil meines Gesprächs mit Marco Papic, geht der Autor von „Geopolitical Alpha“ und Partner der Clocktower Group ausschliesslich auf die vielen spannenden Fragen der Community ein. Statt 4 Wochen können Sie jetzt 6 Wochen das digitale Handelsblatt für 1 € lesen. Zusätzlich verlosen wir unter allen Teilnehmenden zehn Amazon Gutscheine im Wert von je 500 €. Sichern Sie sich jetzt unser Sommerangebot – unter www.handelsblatt.com/sommer-special Abonniere den Podcast, um keine Folge zu verpassen! __________________________________________________ ► Zur Opening Bell+: https://bit.ly/360kochpc * ► https://www.instagram.com/kochwallstreet/ ► https://www.facebook.com/markus.koch.newyork ► https://www.youtube.com/user/kochntv ► https://www.markuskoch.de/ *Werbung

► Zur Opening Bell+: https://bit.ly/360kochpc * Ein Podcast - featured by Handelsblatt. Helfen Sie uns, unsere Podcasts weiter zu verbessern. Ihre Meinung ist uns wichtig: www.handelsblatt.com/zufriedenheit Geopolitische Machtkämpfe haben die Wall Street eingeholt und eine jetzt multipolare Welt nährt Krisen, Kriege und Konflikte. Wer erfolgreich investieren möchte, muss die Sprache der Geopolitik genauso beherrschen, wie die der Wall Street, sagt Marko Papic, Partner und Chef-Stratege der Clocktower Group in Santa Monica. Der Autor von „Geopolitical Alpha“ erklärt im ersten Teil des dreiteiligen Gesprächs, wie Anleger die Chancen und Risiken der Geopolitik im Depot richtig bewerten. Statt 4 Wochen können Sie jetzt 6 Wochen das digitale Handelsblatt für 1 € lesen. Zusätzlich verlosen wir unter allen Teilnehmenden zehn Amazon Gutscheine im Wert von je 500 €. Sichern Sie sich jetzt unser Sommerangebot – unter www.handelsblatt.com/sommer-special Abonniere den Podcast, um keine Folge zu verpassen! __________________________________________________ ► Zur Opening Bell+: https://bit.ly/360kochpc * ► https://www.instagram.com/kochwallstreet/ ► https://www.facebook.com/markus.koch.newyork ► https://www.youtube.com/user/kochntv ► https://www.markuskoch.de/ *Werbung

Maggie Lake is joined by Marko Papic, chief strategist at Clocktower Group, to help us understand the news out of Russia, the implications could be for Vladimir Putin's regime, and how this impacts China and the rest of the world. You can find more of Marko's work here: https://www.clocktowergroup.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In this fascinating episode, Andres Vinelli, chief economist at CFA Institute, sits down with Marko Papic, partner and chief strategist at Clocktower Group, to explore the geopolitical implications of a multi-polar world. Listen in as we discuss the role of the US and emerging markets, and provide tips for applying a geopolitical strategy toolkit to investing. We also forecast the resolution of the debt ceiling and analyze why a professional investor should care about geopolitics. Get ready to dive into the idea of a multi-polar world being a discordant one, and how this can impact investment profiles in different regions or sectors in the economy. Join us as we continue the conversation by examining strategies emerging market economies can use to benefit from engaging with both the US and China. We'll also discuss how investors can use material constraints to assess political paths of least resistance. Don't miss our analysis on the irony of China having withdrawn their efforts to finance infrastructure projects around the world, and the efforts of the US to counter the Belt and Road Initiative. This episode is packed with insights on investing in emerging markets and commodities in a multi-polar world — you don't want to miss it! --------- EPISODE CHAPTERS --------- (0:00:13) - Geopolitics and Investing (10 Minutes) Marko Papic, partner and chief strategist at Clock Tower Group, and I explore the geopolitical implications of a multi-polar world. We examine the role of the US and emerging markets, and provide tips for applying a geopolitical strategy toolkit to investing. We forecast the resolution of the debt ceiling and discuss why a professional investor should care about geopolitics. We analyze the idea of a multi-polar world being a discordant one, and how this can impact investment profiles in different regions or sectors in the economy. (0:10:40) - Assessing Geopolitics for Asset Allocation (13 Minutes) We explore strategies emerging market economies can use to benefit from engaging with both the US and China, and how investors can use material constraints to assess political paths of least resistance. We also discuss the irony of China having withdrawn their efforts to finance infrastructure projects around the world, and the efforts of the US to counter the Belt and Road Initiative. (0:23:23) - Investing in Emerging Markets and Commodities (2 Minutes) Marko Papic and I discussed the global investment landscape in a multi-polar world. We looked at how countries like Spain, America, Brazil, Netherlands, and Japan are increasing their CAPX spending, and how this could create a new CAPX-driven cycle, even without a single country to replace China. We examined the impact of this cycle on the US dollar and emerging markets, as well as the strategies investors can use to benefit from this shift in the global economy.  

Marko Papic, chief strategist at Clocktower Group, says that equities bottom when inflation peaks, and that process -- typically coupled with the Federal Reserve becoming less hawkish -- is well underway. Papic says the Fed's downshift in the size of rate hikes at a time when inflation remains elevated is a sign that the central bank has already shifted its policy focus, and will lead to consumers having more money in their pocket and setting up 'a pretty bullish environment.' Papic expects the market and economy to be strong through 2023, but does seem some storm clouds on the horizon for late 2024, fertilized by some Fed action in trying to ultimately hit target inflation numbers. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of VettaFi looks to small-cap stocks -- which financial advisers have been looking at as one of the more promising areas of the market for this year -- and makes a growth fund his ETF of the Week, Matt Zajechowski discusses a study done for Forbes Advisor showing that nearly 80 percent of the members of the millennial and Gen Z generations have gotten financial advice from social media, and Chuck answers a listener's question about dealing with collectibles from long-ago childhoods.

It's been a roller coaster day for U.S. equities, as stocks plummeted after Microsoft issued weak forward guidance on its earnings call. But as of this writing, indexes have erased those early losses and the options market is now pricing in a Fed pivot after next Thursday's Fed funds rate announcement. Imran Lakha, the founder of Options Insight, joins Maggie Lake to discuss his views of the macro landscape, explain what the options activity means for broader markets, and share some ways that investors can take action. Plus, we'll hear from Marko Papic, chief strategist at Clocktower Group, on why he's so confident the U.S. won't enter a recession in 2023. You can watch the entire interview with Marko and Andreas Steno Larsen here: https://rvtv.io/antidavos Sign up for the Real Vision Academy for access to Imran's course on options here: https://t.co/wRrZtPLopn Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

On today's episode of "The Macro Trading Floor," Andreas and Alfonso welcome Steve Drobny Founder and CEO at Clocktower Group for an inside look into the hedge fund industry. With the past two years spurring the return of macro volatility, many macro hedge funds have arisen, posting high returns in the timeframe. Steve, with his extensive connections in the hedge fund industry, walks through the past two years of higher inflation and how this changed the investing landscape compared to the 12 years prior. He then goes on to discuss what the coming decade could look like. Have we entered a new regime, which could see the rise of more macro hedge funds as "macro is back with a vengeance?" To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Clocktower Group: https://www.linkedin.com/company/clocktower-group/ Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alf: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- WisdomTree is a global ETF and ETP sponsor and asset manager founded in 2006 and with a track record of innovation and creating better ways to invest. Today, we offer a broad range of differentiated ETFs and ETPs across equities, thematics, commodities, fixed income, currencies, short and leveraged, and cryptocurrencies with over $80 billion in assets under management. For more information, please visit https://bit.ly/3VXYPkx -- This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/blockworks_macro_trading, you'll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply. -- Referenced In The Show: Blackstone's BREIT Gets $4 Billion California Injection: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-03/blackstone-s-breit-gets-4-billion-from-university-of-california -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:08) The U.S Inflation Report (04:38) What Is Happening With The BoJ? (07:49) The ECB Is... Raising Rates?! (08:48) The China Reopening (10:33) Feature Interview With Steve Drobny (13:38) What Makes A Successful Macro Fund Manager? (21:57) “Curve Ad” (23:07) Macro Is Back With A Vengeance (29:14) Launching A Hedge Fund (33:54) “Wisdom Tree Ad” (34:27) The Growth Of Hedge Fund's In The Coming Decade (38:05) Post Interview (40:40) Trades For The China Reopening (45:19) Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, we talk Geopolitics with Marko Papic, Chief Strategist at the Clocktower Group. We look at his framework for analyzing the geopolitical landscape to cut through the noise and identify the most important events and information. We also take a tour of the current world to look at some of the most important areas investors should be paying attention to including the Ukraine War, what is going on in China, and some areas that are flying under the radar, but could be the source of future conflict. We hope you enjoy the discussion. SEE LATEST EPISODES https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA https://www.validea.com FOLLOW OUR BLOG https://blog.validea.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL https://www.valideacapital.com FOLLOW JACK Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094 FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

If you’ve looked at your portfolio even once this year, you’ll know that 2022 has proven how vital a solid geopolitical analytical framework can be in generating returns. As the author of the book Geopolitical Alpha, Marko Papic is a global geopolitical expert and partner at Clocktower Group, who advises some of the largest pension funds and investors globally. As a friend of Moe's, we were able to twist his arm to share some of his views on global geopolitics and the risks and opportunities they currently present for investors. Having travelled to South Africa many times, Marko also has a particular affinity for the country (and its kudu carpaccio), sharing his views with us on how SA stacks up in the overall emerging markets space. In this incredible episode, we also discussed fascinating views on China, oil prices and the importance of multi-polarity in the modern world. You do not want to miss this, even if this is a longer episode than normal.

Interview recorded - 08/12/2022On todays episode of the WTFinance podcast I had the pleasure of speaking with Marko Papic, Partner & Chief Strategist at Clocktower Group, as well as author of the book “Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future”.During our conversation we spoke about the greatest misconceptions individuals have about Geopolitics, the importance of the median voter, whether China's bearishness has gone too far and keeping emotions outside of investing. I hope you enjoy!0:00 - Introduction0:25 - Greatest misconceptions individuals have about Geopolitics?3:25 - Why is the median voter important and what influence do they have?6:10 - Do central banks also have constraints based on Median Voter?10:00 - Differences between preferences and constraints?13:31 - Any other broader constraints not getting enough attention?17:00 - China aggression overstated?20:25 - How would you use framework to take a position?23:40 - Multiple variables impacting certain position24:40 - Has China bearishness gone too far?28:40 - Should you overcomplicate the trade?31:50 - Most of the capital comes from the US and China33:05 - One message to takeaway from our conversation?34:55 - Keeping emotions outside of investingMarko Papic is a partner and chief strategist at Clocktower Group, an alternative investment asset management firm. He leads the firm's Strategy Team, providing bespoke research to clients and partners on geopolitics, macroeconomics, and markets. Previously, Mr. Papic founded BCA Research's Geopolitical Strategy practice, the financial industry's first dedicated political analysis investment strategy, which generated “geopolitical alpha” by identifying gaps between the market's political expectations and the firm's forecasts. He served as a senior vice president and the chief geopolitical strategist at the firm. Mr. Papic began his career as a senior analyst at Stratfor, a global intelligence agency where he contributed to the firm's global geopolitical strategy and its analyst recruitment and training program. In his academic work, he helped create the Center for European Union Studies at the University of Texas at Austin. Mr. Papic is the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future, a book that introduces the constraint-based framework to investors. He earned an MA in political science from the University of Texas at Austin and an MA from the University of British ColumbiaMarko Papic - Book - https://amzn.to/3uEDPV0Twitter - https://twitter.com/Geo_papicLinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/China Research - https://twitter.com/ShanghaiMacroWTFinance - Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/wtfinancee/Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/67rpmjG92PNBW0doLyPvfniTunes - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/wtfinance/id1554934665?uo=4Twitter - https://twitter.com/AnthonyFatseas

Today, we are joined by Marko Papic, Partner and Chief Strategist of Clocktower Group, for a conversation on geopolitical analysis and how it can be used to predict the future, based on his book, “Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future”. We discuss why geopolitical analysis should be used and how it can prepare you for the future as an investor, what role politicians play in society and the methods they use to gain voters, how voters are affected by media and the importance of understanding your biases and weaknesses. We also discuss political analysis and how Papic uses Bayesian analysis, why he believes tech is going to underperform massively and why flirting with another power can produce policy results, why Papic is hedging against the dollar, why he believes the war in Ukraine will enter stasis and much more.--------Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow Marko on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro02:56 - Introduction to Marco Papic10:35 - Is geopolitical analysis even valid?14:23 - Go to the insiders if you want geopolitical analysis?21:04 - How can geopolitical analysis be exploited like investment constraints?25:42 - What actually causes recessions?32:33 - Using constraints based analysis37:15 - What is the median voter theory?40:33 - Are median voters controlled by media?45:24 - The role of Bayesian analysis53:02 - Papic's take on spread trades59:13 - Is the dollar overvalued?01:03:46 - Predicting an invasion01:09:20 - A strengthening of the Baltic states01:17:08...

In this week's episode, Dan welcomes back four-time Stansberry Investor Hour veteran Marko Papic. Currently, the geopolitics and macroeconomics specialist serves as a partner and the chief strategist of asset manager Clocktower Group. Before that, Marko was the senior vice president and chief strategist on geopolitical strategy at global investment research firm BCA Research for nearly a decade. He has also worked at Stratfor, one of the world's top geopolitical-intelligence platforms. Marko last joined us in late January, shortly before the Russia-Ukraine war exploded. Today, he's turning his attention to someone "much more relevant and powerful than Vlad[imir Putin]"... chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell. We realize the topic of our central bank's next steps might seem worn out. After all, it has been splashed across the top news headlines daily for most of 2022. But the Fed's actions are massively influencing the global financial system right now. As Marko says... Literally everything that is going on in the world is kind of irrelevant if J. Powell continues to be very hawkish. When the Fed decides it has had enough, everything else can start mattering again. Until then, it's really just all about them. Marko explains the Fed setup that could set off "the most calamitous recession in the history of the United States," and he shares his preferred indicators for a recession. He also discusses the Paul Volcker versus Arthur Burns debate... two former Fed chairmen who defined their careers by tackling inflation. Will Powell follow in Burns' dovish footsteps or take a more uncompromising stance like Volcker did? Finally, Marko highlights a future threat to the markets: the 2024 presidential election. As for which side he's on, he elicits some chuckles from Dan with his candor... I don't care, right or left... I bathe myself in nihilist indifference. My job is to forecast. It doesn't matter.

Marko Papic, chief strategist of alternative investment asset-management firm Clocktower Group, speaks with Daniela Cambone at the 2022 Stansberry Conference and Alliance Meeting in Boston. He warns her, "the Fed is in a really big bind," as the central bank look to ease the pace of rates hikes currently underway. "If we have a shallower recession in 2023 because the Fed arrests the pace of tightening right now," he believes the market could perform well over the next year. "Equity markets are sniffing out a pivot in the inflation cycle," but Papic concludes it's purely political timing.

In this week's episode, Dan welcomes back four-time Stansberry Investor Hour veteran Marko Papic. Currently, the geopolitics and macroeconomics specialist serves as a partner and the chief strategist of asset manager Clocktower Group. Before that, Marko was the senior vice president and chief strategist on geopolitical strategy at global investment research firm BCA Research for nearly a decade. He has also worked at Stratfor, one of the world's top geopolitical-intelligence platforms. Marko last joined us in late January, shortly before the Russia-Ukraine war exploded. Today, he's turning his attention to someone "much more relevant and powerful than Vlad[imir Putin]"... chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell. We realize the topic of our central bank's next steps might seem worn out. After all, it has been splashed across the top news headlines daily for most of 2022. But the Fed's actions are massively influencing the global financial system right now. As Marko says... Literally everything that is going on in the world is kind of irrelevant if J. Powell continues to be very hawkish. When the Fed decides it has had enough, everything else can start mattering again. Until then, it's really just all about them. Marko explains the Fed setup that could set off "the most calamitous recession in the history of the United States," and he shares his preferred indicators for a recession. He also discusses the Paul Volcker versus Arthur Burns debate... two former Fed chairmen who defined their careers by tackling inflation. Will Powell follow in Burns' dovish footsteps or take a more uncompromising stance like Volcker did? Finally, Marko highlights a future threat to the markets: the 2024 presidential election. As for which side he's on, he elicits some chuckles from Dan with his candor... I don't care, right or left... I bathe myself in nihilist indifference. My job is to forecast. It doesn't matter.

When Russia invaded Ukraine, there was a widespread expectation of a surge in prices for numerous commodities. That happened initially, but by and large things have not played out the way many investors would have anticipated. So what did markets get wrong? And what are they getting wrong now? On this episode of the podcast, we speak with Marko Papic, a geopolitical expert and the chief strategist at Clocktower Group. He offers his view that the war is entering a stage of stasis and stability that will persist for some time to come. He also spoke about why China continues to pursue a Covid Zero strategy, despite the seemingly high cost to the economy. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Latest Thinking from the Stratfor Center for Applied Geopolitics at RANE. In this episode, Rodger Baker's guest is Marko Papic, Partner and Chief Strategist at Clocktower Group. Their robust and entertaining discussion runs the gamut from financial advising on geopolitical events to the study of geopolitics and new thinking.The Stratfor Center for Applied Geopolitics is a global center of excellence for geopolitical intelligence and analysis.Geopolitical risk has emerged as a critical driver of risk and security for corporations and is shaping the global business environment. The practice of applied geopolitics provides a multidisciplinary framework for putting these global events in context, forecasting strategic trends, and making them relevant and actionable for organizations.Building on over a quarter century of Stratfor's application of geopolitical intelligence to the corporate, national security, and educational sectors, the Center seeks to identify, develop, and strengthen best practices in geopolitical analysis and provide tools, methods, and training to organizations and individuals as they integrate geopolitical risk and opportunity into their business practices.Learn more today! https://www.ranenetwork.com/stratcenter

The Latest Thinking from the Stratfor Center for Applied Geopolitics at RANE. In this episode, Rodger Baker's guest is Marko Papic, Partner and Chief Strategist at Clocktower Group. Their robust and entertaining discussion runs the gamut from financial advising on geopolitical events to the study of geopolitics and new thinking. The Stratfor Center for Applied Geopolitics is a global center of excellence for geopolitical intelligence and analysis. Geopolitical risk has emerged as a critical driver of risk and security for corporations and is shaping the global business environment. The practice of applied geopolitics provides a multidisciplinary framework for putting these global events in context, forecasting strategic trends, and making them relevant and actionable for organizations. Building on over a quarter century of Stratfor's application of geopolitical intelligence to the corporate, national security, and educational sectors, the Center seeks to identify, develop, and strengthen best practices in geopolitical analysis and provide tools, methods, and training to organizations and individuals as they integrate geopolitical risk and opportunity into their business practices. Learn more today! https://www.ranenetwork.com/stratcenter

Marko Papic is a partner and chief strategist at Clocktower Group, an alternative investment asset management firm. He leads the firm's Strategy Team, providing bespoke research to clients and partners on geopolitics, macroeconomics, and markets. Here he discusses the various aspects of his geopolitical analysis framework, how the idea of the Buenos Aires consensus has evolved, as well as what the Chinese government will do on the CCP meeting, and much more! You can get his book here: https://www.amazon.ca/Geopolitical-Alpha-Investment-Framework-Predicting/dp/1119740215

In this special edition of This Week In Doom, Grant and The Green Chicken are joined by Luke Gromen of Forest For The Trees LLC, Marko Papic of Clocktower Group and special guest Sir Steven Wilkinson, author of The Pitchfork Papers, for a discussion on the EU's creaking energy policy, the effects of sanctions against Russia in the wake of the invasion of Ukraine and what it all means for the future of Europe. In a two-hour debate filled with insightful analysis, respectful disagreement and thoughtful perspective, we explored multiple facets of the current situation, picked apart the potential outcomes and tried to handicap the likely paths that may be taken from here. Finally, as the discussion turned to Germany's role in how this all plays out, we welcomed Sir Steven who gave us the benefit of his near-30 years experience building and operating businesses in Germany.

Marko Papic has a very clear view of Wednesday morning's report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics on the July U.S. Consumer Price Index: “Getting the inflection in CPI prints is really important,” he says. “So, yes, even a minor decline is relevant.” Papic, a partner and the chief strategist at Clocktower Group, also has a very clear view of the most important factor in the global inflation calculus: crude oil. “The bottom line is that if oil prices fall further, don't expect the equity rebound to end. It is all about oil prices at this point.” Papic joins Real Vision's Andreas Steno Larsen to talk about oil, inflation, and equity markets. We also hear from David Woo, who compares the China-Taiwan situation to the Russia-Ukraine conflict and offers the following geopolitical marker: “Before the end of August, we will know how the situation in Ukraine is going to play out." Watch the full interview featuring David Woo and Andreas Steno Larsen here: https://rvtv.io/3Pds1Ro. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Marko Papic, chief strategist at the Clocktower Group, says that while inflation in the range of 3 to 6 percent "will not kill" consumers, it will kill the technology sector because any unprofitable tech companies can't keep borrowing at super low rates to keep the business rolling while they get to profitability. He believes other markets besides the United States are better positioned to support their technology businesses moving forward, which is part of a trend that will see investors want to own China and Japan and Europe during times while inflation remains high. Also on the show, Nathan Furr, author of "The Upside of Uncertainty: A Guide to Finding Possibility in the Unknown," discusses how consumers and savers can lean into the uncertainty of current times and markets to find a path to something better and more interesting, Christian Mitchell of Northwestern Mutual discusses the latest release from the firm's 2022 Planning and Progress Study, which showed how planning significantly improved investor satisfaction and confidence during the current downturn, and Chuck answers a listener's question about I-bonds. 

Marko and Jacob explore the rumbles in the US Economy, energy trends, and geopolitical headwinds across the hemispheres. Marko Papic is a Partner and Chief Strategist at Clocktower Group. Timestamps: 2:00-14:00 – U.S. Economy 14:00-21:36 – Oil/Natural Gas 21:36-35:54 – Europe 35:54-42:00 – China 42:00-52:52 – Saudi Arabia 50:52-59:11 – India 59:11-1:10:11 – Food 1:10:11-1:16:31 – Recession odds 1:16:31- end: Basketball

Marko and Jacob explore the rumbles in the US Economy, energy trends, and geopolitical headwinds across the hemispheres. Marko Papic is a Partner and Chief Strategist at Clocktower Group. Timestamps: 2:00-14:00 – U.S. Economy 14:00-21:36 – Oil/Natural Gas 21:36-35:54 – Europe 35:54-42:00 – China 42:00-52:52 – Saudi Arabia 50:52-59:11 – India 59:11-1:10:11 – Food 1:10:11-1:16:31 – Recession odds 1:16:31- end: Basketball

On today's episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas and Alfonso welcome Marko Papic Partner and Chief Strategist at Clocktower Group. With such a massive bull run in energy, particularly Oil since the March 2020 lows, is the bull run sustainable? With a geopolitical premium priced into energy markets since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, are oil and gas markets set to take another leg higher, or retrace 2021 & 2022 gains like the past couple of months? Marko walks through all of the factors at play and also shares his actionable trade idea, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Marko: https://twitter.com/Geo_papic Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Referenced In The Show: Nord Stream nightmare: Has Putin stopped Europe's gas for good? https://www.politico.eu/article/europe-russia-energy-gas-crunch-nord-stream-shutoff-ukraine-war/  Heathrow tells airlines to stop selling tickets for flights this summer https://www.ft.com/content/9e76ca20-406f-46a8-8cec-d7627ea38f91 -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:41) Top Stories Of The Week (11:17) Feature Interview With Marko Papic (16:35) Has Putin Stopped Europe's Gas For Good? (21:47) Can Europe Handle The Energy Shortage? (25:40) Chinese Oil Demand (33:14) What Could Go Wrong With Marko's Trade Idea? (35:11) Biden Heads To Saudi Arabia (37:16) Final Thoughts (40:56) Post Interview: Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Marko Papic hops on the Perch Pod (transitioning to Cognitive Dissidents Pod) to talk Biden's new missteps, India, Russia, and SO much more. Marko is a partner and strategist at the Clocktower Group, as you've probably heard us say before - make sure to reach out to us with your thoughts, reactions, or insights! 1:15-21:15: Taiwan/Latin America 21:15-41:15: Russia/Ukraine 41:15-50:05: Europe 50:05-end: Basketball ~Imporant~ We're switching channels to Cognitive Dissidents! Go follow https://cognitive-investments.captivate.fm/listen (here)! Questions? Comments? Reach out at: info@perchperspectives.com Subscribe to the Perch Perspectives Newsletter https://perchperspectives.com/reports/ (here). Socials: Twitter: @https://twitter.com/PerchSpectives (PerchSpectives) LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/perch-perspectives/ (Perch Perspectives) Website: https://perchperspectives.com/ (https://perchperspectives.com/)

Marko Papic hops on the CD Pod to talk Biden's new missteps, India, Russia, and SO much more. Marko is a partner and strategist at the Clocktower Group, as you've probably heard us say before - make sure to reach out to us with your thoughts, reactions, or insights! 1:15-21:15: Taiwan/Latin America 21:15-41:15: Russia/Ukraine 41:15-50:05: Europe 50:05-end: Basketball Questions? Comments? Reach out at: kristin@cognitive.investments Website:https://cognitive.investments ( https://cognitive.investments)

This week we have the great privilege of having Marko Papic from ClockTower Group back on the show. We have a great discussion about the war in Ukraine, the situation in China and he gives us a “whisper in the dark” about a trade that some of the biggest, smartest traders are putting on their radar. Market Huddle Piss Up! is finally happening on Wednesday June 1st at The Bottom Line (22 Front St. W in Toronto) at 4:30pm - Hope to see you all there! 🍻 ⭐️Visit our merch store!!! 👉https://www.markethuddlemerch.com/ ⭐️ *Got questions for Kevin and Patrick? Submit your questions to: 📩nostupidquestions@markethuddle.com To receive our emails with the charts and links each week, please register at: https://markethuddle.com/

On today's Manager Meeting, Paula Volent interviews Steve Drobny. Paula is a legend in the endowment world and recent guest on Capital Allocators who is now serving as the CIO for Rockefeller University's $2.5 billion endowment after spending twenty years at the helm of Bowdoin College's endowment. Steve is the Founder and Managing Partner of Clocktower Group, an alternative asset management platform whose activities include seeding and investing in global macro hedge funds, fintech venture capital, China-focused seeding, climate change venture capital, and macro research. Their conversation covers the changing global landscape, geopolitics, China, fintech, Latin America, and ESG. Steve also shares his candid, contrarian opinion of the endowment model. Learn More‍ Follow Ted on Twitter at @tseides or LinkedIn‍ Subscribe to the mailing list‍ Access Transcript with Premium Membership‍

As tensions escalate between Russia and Ukraine, Trish sits down with noted geopolitical and macroeconomics strategist Marko Papic, Partner and Chief Strategist at the Clocktower Group, to look at how to best position your portfolio. Papic warns the Fed may not be able to raise rates as quickly as it intended, given the increasing threat of recession. "Energy prices," he says, "will continue to escalate, providing a positive environment for energy investing." Other sectors he likes include materials and Real Estate, but he warns it will be a delicate balance between the inflation heading our way and the danger that could cause a massive consumer pullback. Find out how to best position your portfolio amid these ongoing challenges. For more from Trish, go to AmericanConsequences.com and sign up for her daily newsletter, follow her on Twitter @trish_regan.

To understand current events, it's crucial to understand the events of the past. Today we're joined by someone who can enrich our understanding of what's going on right now by looking at it through a historical lens. Marko Papic's career has seen him at the nexus of geopolitics and finance. He is a Partner and Chief Strategist at Clocktower Group and the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future. During a gripping discussion, we discuss Russia's territorial vulnerability, its recent military record, and how other countries with plans for territorial expansion will be now factoring in the high cost of corporate warfare. Marko also argues that Russia's invasion of Ukraine is a distraction to a macro investor and that the macro truth was revealed prior to the current conflict.

My guest today is Marko Papic, partner and chief strategist at Clocktower Group, where he leads the firm's research on macroeconomics and markets. Marko has spent his career at the intersection of finance and geopolitics, making him a perfect person to speak to about current events in Ukraine and their potential impact further afield. Along with Russia and Ukraine, we discuss the Fed, inflation, China, the green energy transition, and the US's position in the global order. Please enjoy this discussion with Marko Papic.   For the full show notes, transcript, and links to mentioned content, check out the episode page here.   -----   This episode is brought to you by Tegus. Tegus is the new digital hub for market intelligence. The Tegus platform empowers Investors and Corporate Development teams to invest smarter by pairing best-in-class technology with the highest quality user-generated content and data. Find out why a majority of the top firms are using Tegus on a daily basis. Head to tegus.co/patrick for your free trial.   -----   This episode is brought to you by Lemon.io. The team at Lemon.io has built a network of Eastern European developers ready to pair with fast-growing startups. We have faced challenges hiring engineering talent for various projects - and Lemon.io offered developers for one-off projects, developers for full start to finish product development, or developers that could be add-ons to the existing team. Check out lemon.io/patrick to learn more.   -----   Invest Like the Best is a property of Colossus, LLC. For more episodes of Invest Like the Best, visit joincolossus.com/episodes.    Past guests include Tobi Lutke, Kevin Systrom, Mike Krieger, John Collison, Kat Cole, Marc Andreessen, Matthew Ball, Bill Gurley, Anu Hariharan, Ben Thompson, and many more.   Stay up to date on all our podcasts by signing up to Colossus Weekly, our quick dive every Sunday highlighting the top business and investing concepts from our podcasts and the best of what we read that week. Sign up here.   Follow us on Twitter: @patrick_oshag | @JoinColossus   Show Notes [00:02:48] - [First question] - His thoughts on what's happened so far between Russia and Ukraine [00:06:18] - The geopolitical motivations for Russia and what they can gain from the conflict  [00:10:52] - How his impressions of warfare have evolved watching this play out [00:13:45] - What to consider about nuclear war and different types of nuclear weapons [00:16:31] - The economic warfare from the West against Russia and its implications [00:21:06] - Whether or not the world is de-globalizing and how interconnected we all are [00:24:45] - How we should view post-covid inflation, specifically in the US [00:30:34] - The ways the Fed's role has evolved  [00:33:25] - Impacts of liquidity on asset prices and why it's such a key factor in markets [00:34:16] - China's positioning and how the Ukraine conflict could alter their plans [00:40:58] - Thoughts on Taiwan and how global supply chains might change [00:44:47] - Why so few people believe that China has peaked; Young China  [00:48:52] - His take on income equality in the US and why it's the number one issue [00:53:03] - What the US could do to improve itself as a country most going forward [00:55:35] - Having a green energy transition view is crucial and the surrounding politics [00:59:22] - The preconditions for doing well in atoms-based innovation [01:01:13] - What he's watching most carefully about the conflict in Ukraine [01:02:51] - The kindest thing anyone has ever done for him

When assessing what a political leader is going to do, Marko Papic doesn't pay much attention to what the person's desires are. Instead, he looks at what he calls “material constraints.” In other words, what factors will limit the leader's ability to get what he or she wants. To Papic, the chief strategist at hedge-fund seeding firm Clocktower Group, Russia's Vladimir Putin is ignoring his material constraints with the invasion of Ukraine. And ultimately, he says, that could lead to Putin's downfall. Papic joined the “What Goes Up” podcast to discuss the war and its effects on markets. “I give Putin 12 months, and I'm taking the under,” said Papic, the author of “Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.” Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

A Russian military convoy continues to bear down on Kyiv, Ukraine's capital and its most populous city. Its progress has been slow, much like the broader invasion. But news from Eastern Europe continues to roil markets, with the three major U.S. equity indexes all down at least 1.5% two hours ahead of the close of regular trading. Longer-term U.S. Treasury yields are sliding, and the CBOE Volatility Index is spiking. Commodity prices are surging, with West Texas Intermediate crude oil up nearly 9% on the day, Brent crude up nearly 8%, and corn and wheat both up more than 5%. Meanwhile, with the global community's sanction regime still taking shape, the Russian ruble is now worth less than one cent versus the U.S. dollar, and Russia's stock market remained closed for another full day. “At this point,” notes Marko Papic, chief strategist at Clocktower Group, “we cannot say how the conflict will end in the short term.” Papic joins Real Vision's Maggie Lake on today's Daily Briefing to discuss the geopolitical situation. And Tony Greer, founder of TG Macro, is here to talk about how financial markets are reacting to events on the ground. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/35jzRrH Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Marko Papic is the Chief Strategist at Clocktower Group, where he provides research on geopolitics, macroeconomics, and markets. Marko recently published Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future, an imminently readable book with colorful examples of political analysis. Marko's approach is akin to Moneyball for politics, challenging the orthodoxy of how others traditionally make investment decisions. Our conversation covers Marko's upbringing, the flaws of most political analysis, and his constraints-based framework. We then turn to the obvious political topic at hand – next week's U.S. Presidential election. We discuss his views of different possible outcomes on the U.S. equity market, rates, tech stocks, China, private equity, ESG, Europe, and emerging markets.   Learn More  Follow Ted on Twitter at @tseides or LinkedIn  Subscribe to the mailing list  Access Transcript with Premium Membership   

Occasionally, an event takes place that causes investors to reassess risk. Russian's actions in Ukraine last week could be a tipping point for one of those events. In a divergence from our normal show, I reached out to Marko Papic to see what we could learn. Marko is the Chief Strategist at Clocktower Group, where he provides research on geopolitics, macroeconomics, and markets. He is a past guest on the show, and that conversation is replayed in the feed. Our conversation tackles the implication of the events in the Ukraine on geopolitics and markets over time. We cover Russia, the U.S., oil, China, and answers to the most pressing questions his clients are asking in response to last week's event. Learn More  Follow Ted on Twitter at @tseides or LinkedIn  Subscribe to the mailing list  Access Transcript with Premium Membership   

EMERGENCY EPISODE Cousin Marko Papic and Jacob convene an emergency meeting to discuss the ramifications and long-term efficacy of Russia's surprising full-on invasion of Ukraine. Marko is a partner at the Clocktower Group, providing research to clients and partners on geopolitics, macroeconomics and markets. He has recently published a book called https://www.amazon.com/Geopolitical-Alpha-Investment-Framework-Predicting-ebook/dp/B08LDNBF78 (Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future. ) Questions? Comments? Reach out at: info@perchperspectives.com Links: Subscribe to the Perch Pod Newsletter https://perchperspectives.com/reports/ (here). Socials: Twitter: @https://twitter.com/PerchSpectives (PerchSpectives) LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/perch-perspectives/ (Perch Perspectives) Website: https://perchperspectives.com/ (https://perchperspectives.com/)

Marko Papic, chief strategist at Clocktower Group, says that he expects the market to bounce around through the end of the first quarter with January's setback mostly over at this point. Still, in a wide-ranging interview during which he compared cryptocurrency to rock-and-roll music, he noted that he's not buying into the dip because he foresees real sluggishness while the market waits to see not just what the Federal Reserve will do but the amplitude of the central bank's moves. Until that gets sorted out, Papic noted that he is struggling to be bullish on domestic markets. Also on the show, Anuj Nayar discusses a Lending Club study which showed an alarmingly high number of Americans living paycheck-to-paycheck, with a surprisingly high number of the people struggling actually earning six-figure salaries; in the Market Call, Will Rhind of GraniteShares discusses the 'XOUT' methodology that effectively looks at reasons to weed out stocks poised for future sluggishness, slowdowns and declines, while hanging on the companies with real growth potential. 

Come join Jacob as he gets the lowdown on Russia's (postured?) aggression towards Ukraine, China's role in the mix, money market drama, and of course, Basketball, with cousin Marko Papic! Marko is a partner at the Clocktower Group, providing research to clients and partners on geopolitics, macroeconomics and markets. He has recently published a book called https://www.amazon.com/Geopolitical-Alpha-Investment-Framework-Predicting-ebook/dp/B08LDNBF78 (Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future. ) Timestamps:  1:00-20:53: Russia 20:53-36:40: China + inflation 37:00-46:41: The Race to Zero/ESG investment concerns 46:40-56:10: Turkey and Brazil and Chile oh my! 55:10-1:04:20 Over-under 1:04:20-end: Basketball Questions? Comments? Reach out at: info@perchperspectives.com Links: Subscribe to the Perch Pod Newsletter https://perchperspectives.com/reports/ (here). Check out LatamPolitik https://latampolitik.com/ (here)! Socials: Twitter: @https://twitter.com/PerchSpectives (PerchSpectives) LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/perch-perspectives/ (Perch Perspectives) Website: https://perchperspectives.com/ (https://perchperspectives.com/)

Our guest today is Ben Savage. Ben manages Clocktower Technology Ventures and is responsible for all of Clocktower Group's private market activities.   Our conversation covers the state of venture capital today, where fintech sits within the venture space, the convergence of public and private markets, and the importance of trust within financial services.   Our co-hosts today are Steve Curley, CFA, and Colby Donovan. Please enjoy the episode.    CFA Orlando is hosting JP Morgan's Dr. David Kelly for the 2022 Forecast Dinner on February 23rd at the Alfond Inn by Rollins College. Click here for more information and to register.  Please note – you do not need to be a member of CFA Orlando or have the CFA designation to attend the event.   Please enjoy our episode with Clocktower Technology Ventures' Ben Savage.   Follow the CFA Society of Orlando on Twitter at @CFAOrlandoFL

On episode 34 I talk with Adriana Saman of Clocktower Technology Ventures. Clocktower Technology Ventures is the technology investing arm within Clocktower Group, a global macro investment firm based in Santa Monica, CA, and investing worldwide. LatAm continues to be the hottest fintech market in the world and Clocktower is one of the leading VC firms investing in the market. So much has changed in recent years with investment rounds continuing to skyrocket, unicorns going public in the U.S., and crypto beginning to take off. I sat down with Adriana to talk about Clocktower's focus in the region, how the firm has managed the region's rapid change, their overall mission of investing in entrepreneurs that help make financial services more impactful, and what's coming next for this rapidly evolving ecosystem.  Quick programming note, we recorded this interview before LendIt Fintech LatAm, in case you hear reference to the event during our discussion. So without further ado, Adriana Saman of Clocktower Technology Ventures. I hope you all enjoy the show and be prepared to learn about: Adriana's journey to Clocktower Technology Ventures Why she fell in love with fintech and financial inclusion Clocktower's mandate to never lead rounds or take board seats What investment ideas are hot right now in LatAm fintech Differences between the U.S. and LatAm embedded finance trends How LatAm banks can leverage fintech to better serve customers How talent is rapidly changing in LatAm The multiple fundraising phenomenons taking place The dangers of weaponizing capital Why payments infrastructure is so exciting Founders need to know their numbers, it's unacceptable to not know your economics Adriana recommends reading The Shadow of the Wind  Inspired by people who are not afraid to speak up and pursue their passions And much more...

In episode 357, we welcome our guest, Marko Papic, Chief Strategist at the Clocktower Group, an alternative investment asset management firm, where he leads the firm's Strategy Team, providing bespoke research on geopolitics, macroeconomics, and markets.   In today's episode, we're talking geopolitics and the markets. Marko recently released the book Geopolitical Alpha and he shares his framework for understanding how geopolitical events will affect the markets. Then we talk current events and how he views them. We talk about the implications of Evergrande and why Marko does not believe China will try to takeover Taiwan.  Next we talk about the implications of rising food and commodity prices and whether that will cause social unrest around the globe.   As we wind down, we talk about the ESG and sustainability trend and finish by hearing what Marko thinks about inflation, interest rates and the U.S. stock market.   Please enjoy this episode with Clocktower Group's Marko Papic.     -----   Follow Meb on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube For detailed show notes, click here To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com   -----   Today's episode is sponsored by FarmTogether. FarmTogether is a technology-powered investment platform that enables investors to channel funding into natural assets, starting with U.S. farmland. By driving abundant and creative capital to farmers, we're giving investors the opportunity to drive agriculture toward sustainability on a massive scale. Alongside a changing climate, the global population continues to grow, with expectations of reaching 9.7 billion by 2050. This means approximately 70% more food will be required than is consumed today. FarmTogether investors are providing the key financial building blocks for a sustainable future.  

As an investor, it's extremely important to realize how much government policy decisions can impact your portfolio. So, on the Investor Hour this week, we decided to take a 'step back' and have a conversation with one of the top minds in macroeconomics. He's a repeat guest of the show...  And given the enormous increase in government budgets... and all the turmoil happening around the world today, Dan couldn't wait to have him back to discuss how some of the big macrotrends happening today could impact the market going forward. Marko Papic joins us as this week's guest. Marko works as partner and chief strategist at Clocktower Group, an alternative asset management firm where he leads the firm's strategy team providing bespoke research to clients and partners on geopolitics, macroeconomics, and markets. And he's also the author of the popular book, Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future. Dan and Marko discuss the situation in Afghanistan, what the future holds for Chinese tech stocks, plus a shocking prediction on where some of the most commonly held blue chip stocks could be headed this decade... Marko even shares two "30-Day trades" he thinks could be highly profitable if you act quickly. Listen to Dan's conversation with Marko and more on this week's episode.

As an investor, it's extremely important to realize how much government policy decisions can impact your portfolio. So, on the Investor Hour this week, we decided to take a 'step back' and have a conversation with one of the top minds in macroeconomics. He's a repeat guest of the show...  And given the enormous increase in government budgets... and all the turmoil happening around the world today, Dan couldn't wait to have him back to discuss how some of the big macrotrends happening today could impact the market going forward. Marko Papic joins us as this week's guest. Marko works as partner and chief strategist at Clocktower Group, an alternative asset management firm where he leads the firm's strategy team providing bespoke research to clients and partners on geopolitics, macroeconomics, and markets. And he's also the author of the popular book, Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future. Dan and Marko discuss the situation in Afghanistan, what the future holds for Chinese tech stocks, plus a shocking prediction on where some of the most commonly held blue chip stocks could be headed this decade... Marko even shares two "30-Day trades" he thinks could be highly profitable if you act quickly. Listen to Dan's conversation with Marko and more on this week's episode.

Cousin Marko comes back to the Perch Pod to discuss a variety of topics. We'll get deep into the global "Race to Zero," hot takes on Russia, the bond market, Latin America, and, of course, the NBA. Watch out for some lighter-hearted segments that Marko and Jacob each wrote as tongue-in-cheek exercises (kinda) - they appear at the beginning and near the end! Marko is currently a partner at the Clocktower Group. Links: Subscribe to the podcast so you don't miss any new episodes! We put out new episodes every other Monday Questions? Reach out at: info@perchperspectives.com Subscribe to the Perch Pod Newsletter https://perchperspectives.com/reports/ (HERE) Check out LatamPolitik https://latampolitik.com/ (here)! Socials- Twitter: https://twitter.com/PerchSpectives (https://twitter.com/PerchSpectives) LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/perch-perspectives/ (https://www.linkedin.com/company/perch-perspectives/) Website: https://perchperspectives.com/ (https://perchperspectives.com/)

Marko Papic, chief strategist for the Clocktower Group, says that he expects an inflation surprise to the upside -- bigger than the market forecasts -- which is likely to upset the market, adding to volatility and limiting the forward potential for stocks. It has him looking to foreign markets to generate bigger returns for the remainder of the year and potentially beyond. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com looks to the potential of blockchain with his ETF of the Week, Jacque Reardon discusses Franklin Templeton's latest Voice of the American Worker study -- which shows that people are redefining what it means to retire -- and in the Market Call, David Marcus of the Evermore Global Value fund talks about where he sees blood running in the streets to find his buys.

Show from 7/2/21What are the implications of populism on markets? What does this mean for the US? Curious about the race to zero? Host Jeremy Schwartz discusses macro trends with Partner and Chief Strategist at Clocktower Group Marko Papic. Marko explains how the pandemic changed fiscal expectations and what the future looks like for global markets.Guest:Marko Papic - Partner and Chief Strategist at Clocktower GroupFollow Marko on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopoliticsFor more on Clocktower Group visit their website: https://www.clocktowergroup.com/Follow WisdomTree on Twitter: @WisdomTreeETFsFollow Jeremy Schwartz on Twitter: @JeremyDSchwartz See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

“When we're looking at single founders, there probably is one variable that rises a little bit and that we spent a great deal of time thinking about which is, are they an attractor? Can they attract the things they need to be successful?” – Ben Savage Ben Savage is General Partner at Clocktower Technology Ventures, a leading venture capital group focused on fintech investments. He is also Lead Partner for the private sector of Clocktower Group, a global macro investment firm. Before joining Clocktower, Ben co-founded Artivest, an online financial services startup, and spent years in the financial services field at Bridgewater Associates, Gjelina Group, and Bellfoundry Advisors. Show notes with links, quotes, and a transcript of the episode: https://www.danielscrivner.com/notes/ben-savage-outliers-show-notes  Chapters in this interview: 00:00:06 – Ben's background and experience before Clocktower Group 00:03:02 – Ben's learnings from the culture at Bridgewater Associates 00:12:35 – Clocktower Group and investing at the macro level 00:24:18 – Investing in human capital 00:31:36 – Focusing on fintech investing 00:35:16 – How fintech will save the world 00:43:53 – Why Clocktower does not invest in crypto 00:51:31 – Choosing not to lead deals gives Clocktower an edge 00:56:32 – On weaknesses and clear communication   Sign up here for Outlier Academy Weekly, our Sunday newsletter that highlights the latest episode, expands on important business and investing concepts, and contains the best of what we read each week. Follow Outliers on Twitter: https://twitter.com/outlieracademy. If you loved this episode, please share a quick review on Apple Podcasts. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Interview: Marko Papic, partner and chief strategist at Clocktower Group, joins Michael Green to discuss how and why geopolitics will have major effects on markets in the coming years with a particular focus on U.S.-China relations. They discuss everything from Taiwan and the issue of semiconductor supply chains to other actors like Russia as well as the merits and faults of Cold War analogies. They also touch on what Papic calls "the most important macro chart of this cycle" and the domestic issue of income inequality and the resulting policy outcomes. Finally, Green and Papic help viewers understand the magnitude of the green energy initiatives and what Papic believes are the best and worst ways to gain exposure to this megatrend. Recorded on March 31, 2021. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Interview: Marko Papic, partner and chief strategist at Clocktower Group, joins Michael Green to discuss how and why geopolitics will have major effects on markets in the coming years with a particular focus on U.S.-China relations. They discuss everything from Taiwan and the issue of semiconductor supply chains to other actors like Russia as well as the merits and faults of Cold War analogies. They also touch on what Papic calls "the most important macro chart of this cycle" and the domestic issue of income inequality and the resulting policy outcomes. Finally, Green and Papic help viewers understand the magnitude of the green energy initiatives and what Papic believes are the best and worst ways to gain exposure to this megatrend. Recorded on March 31, 2021. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Marko Papic leads the strategy team at Clocktower Group, an alternative investments firm. Clocktower offers long-term strategic investment strategies to their clients, investment managers and institutional allocators.   Marko brings his constraints framework, outlined in his book Geopolitical Alpha, to analyzing the geopolitical trends of the day. His ability to accurately forecast major political events has enormous ramifications for portfolios.   In this episode, Marko and Aaron discuss how the future of China-US conflict, Turkey’s geopolitical prospects, and how to break into the geopolitical analysis field. Sign up for a Weekly Email that will Expand Your Mind.   Marko Papic’s Challenge; Spend time around people with the opposite political and cultural perspective of you.   Connect with Marko Papic Linkedin Geopolitical Alpha book Website   If you liked this interview, check out our interview with Mike Green where we discuss Bitcoin and index funds.   Text Me What You Think of This Episode 412-278-7680 Underwritten by Piper Creative Piper Creative makes creating podcasts, vlogs, and videos easy.    How? Click here and Learn more.   We work with Fortune 500s, medium-sized companies, and entrepreneurs.   Follow Piper as we grow YouTube Instagram Subscribe on iTunes | Stitcher | Overcast | Spotify

The days when investors and corporate decision-makers could succeed without much understanding of geopolitics are over. Portfolio construction practitioners must stop relying on news flow for their political analysis, and instead go back to the drawing board and focus systematically on the constraints facing global policymakers, in order to successfully extract the implications for portfolios. - David Bridges & Marko Papic. Earn 0.50 CE/CPD hrs on Portfolio Construction Forum

Marko Papic, the partner and chief strategist at Clocktower Group as well as author of the 2020 book, Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future, joins Oliver to discuss his take on the Federal Reserve's recent actions as well as what he calls the Buenos Aires paradigm. Papic explains his theory, and how it relates to the current macro economic picture as the world recovers from the COVID-19 pandemic.

Marko Papic, now known as “Cousin Marko,” is back! In this surprise episode of the Perch Pod, Jacob and Marko talk about the economic and political impact of the Capitol riot, 2nd impeachment and Biden Stimulus. They also de-stress with a quick discussion about basketball and end the episode with a game of some over-unders (starting at 40:00).  Marko is currently a partner at the Clocktower Group. He leads their strategy team providing research to clients and partners on geopolitics, macroeconomics and markets. He has recently published a book called https://www.amazon.com/Geopolitical-Alpha-Investment-Framework-Predicting-ebook/dp/B08LDNBF78 (Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future. )  Marko's Book: https://www.amazon.com/Geopolitical-Alpha-Investment-Framework-Predicting-ebook/dp/B08LDNBF78 (https://www.amazon.com/Geopolitical-Alpha-Investment-Framework-Predicting-ebook/dp/B08LDNBF78)  Timestamps:  00:00 Intro 03:19  Marko's macro perspective - Capitol Riots, 2nd Impeachment and Biden Stimulus 11:20 Political future of the U.S.29:00 Basketball!39:56 Geopolitical and NBA over-unders57:10 - Outro Subscribe to the podcast so you don't miss any new episodes!  We put out new episodes every other Monday   Questions? Reach out at: info@perchperspectives.com   Socials- Twitter: https://www.youtube.com/redirect?redir_token=QUFFLUhqbTdOb2tiblhXOV83M0tuUTFhYnBkTkZLdm9BQXxBQ3Jtc0tuR3ExRlFFN2Zud3EzUXhQZTBNZUJFeUJ5THdtYWdBdDlkemdlV2NrNE02ZlhXQ1dsTXFaUnIyVXJxdTlPNEdZU0ktNldlWGUxQUk2WGlNcmxyNXRiZUwwRWw4a3dSVjgzb1B5dVZCOTNxQmMwb215Zw%3D%3D&v=CuA6P-5PDxY&q=https%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2FPerchSpectives&event=video_description (https://twitter.com/PerchSpectives) LinkedIn: https://www.youtube.com/redirect?redir_token=QUFFLUhqa3JLQUlJUlFYY0VmSWhMNWNkWlBveHhmQTFIQXxBQ3Jtc0ttaTktMDczNUxuVVl2Q0JRQmk5V2w5SlpQTmgzZEx6eF9IRzJmekNScGhvZFdtMUZwem4yR1F3UVB6RzdnTkg0U2ZYeDVsOUkwQ2Z4RVl6eFBfMDdQVlFRNDhhTDZWbGZKNjJNa2VjelRNaWdBOGtITQ%3D%3D&v=CuA6P-5PDxY&q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.linkedin.com%2Fcompany%2Fperch-perspectives%2F&event=video_description (https://www.linkedin.com/company/perch-perspectives/) Website: https://www.youtube.com/redirect?redir_token=QUFFLUhqa0RYT2toUW4xanM4VWdfdTY3ZDBYSG5QTzBUQXxBQ3Jtc0ttQTFFcjBJakdmUlBCMkd1TmpSU19JR01jYnNFU05FT3VMdXJXNlNwVlBFLVRDeGFyRC1SWEdISHhPN1JPUUZWS2VjejNYODBOMkpfZ1hXTjNjcnl1MURuMU1fVm11RVlpZ1dIdnVwU19XU3ZxeEdsWQ%3D%3D&v=CuA6P-5PDxY&q=https%3A%2F%2Fperchperspectives.com%2F&event=video_description (https://perchperspectives.com/)

On this episode of the Perch Pod, Jacob speaks with Marko Papic. Knowing Jacob from his Stratfor days, Marko is currently a partner at the Clocktower Group. He leads their strategy team providing research to clients and partners on geopolitics, macroeconomics and markets. He has recently published a book called https://www.amazon.com/Geopolitical-Alpha-Investment-Framework-Predicting-ebook/dp/B08LDNBF78 (Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future. ) Marko's Book: https://www.amazon.com/Geopolitical-Alpha-Investment-Framework-Predicting-ebook/dp/B08LDNBF78 (https://www.amazon.com/Geopolitical-Alpha-Investment-Framework-Predicting-ebook/dp/B08LDNBF78)  Timestamps:  00:00 Intro 3:06 The Virtues of Nihilism8:54 The one thing Marko wants you to know9:56 The Buenos Aires Consensus14:08 Why should you care about median voter theory29:29 Future of the EU36:46 Debating India as an investment44:44 How to think about the U.S.-China relationship54:49 The Dream Team v. Yugoslavia1:03:00 Outro   Subscribe to the podcast so you don't miss any new episodes!  We put out new videos every other Monday Questions? Reach out at: info@perchperspectives.com   Socials-Twitter: https://twitter.com/PerchSpectives (https://twitter.com/PerchSpectives)  LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/perch-perspectives/ (https://www.linkedin.com/company/perch-perspectives/)  Website: https://perchperspectives.com/ (https://perchperspectives.com/) 

Our guest today is Marko Papic, Partner and Chief Strategist of Clocktower Group, an alternative investment management firm based in California. In 2011, he founded BCA Research's Geopolitical Strategy practice, the world's only dedicated investment consultancy focused on political analysis. He also recently wrote the book, Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future. In this episode we discuss why investors need to be cognizant of geopolitics for the first time in 40 years, his framework anyone can use to assess the impact of geopolitics, and what his views are on global assets and relations with a Biden administration.  He explains why the median voter in the U.S. has moved to the left and the impact that will have, and what constraints the government will face over the next two years. Our local co-host today is Steve Curley, CFA, CIO of WaterOak Advisors and current President of the CFA Society of Orlando. Please enjoy the episode.  Follow the CFA Society of Orlando on Twitter at @CFAOrlandoFL        

With votes still being tallied in several states days after Election Day, this race has been closer than many in the mainstream media expected. Our mailbag has been exploding with hundreds of questions from listeners about the impacts of each side winning could have on the markets. It's an extremely complex issue that could have big implications for you and your money. So Dan decided to bring in geopolitical expert, Marko Papic, onto the show for this week's interview to help him answer some questions. Marko works as partner and chief strategist at Clocktower Group, an alternative investment asset management firm where he leads the firm's strategy team providing bespoke research to clients and partners on geopolitics, macroeconomics, and markets. Marko is also author of the book, Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future. Dan and Marko talk about the implications of a Trump victory versus a Biden victory, the likelihood of the Senate switching, as well as some industries that could explode whether Trump or Biden is elected. But Marko has a warning for the bulls. He says that his research shows there's about a 30% chance there could be a big 'hiccup' that currently isn't being priced into the market...

The Covid-19 pandemic has not so much catalysed a “whole new world,” as much as it has accelerated the trends that were already afoot over the past decade, specifically: multipolarity, deglobalisation, Sino-American conflict, the death of laissez-faire, and rise of tech. Some of these paradigms have been accelerated by the extraordinary events in 2020, but others will either dissipate or be moderated over the course of the next decade. The crucial regime shift that will dominate the coming decade is the transition from the Washington Consensus to the Buenos Aires Consensus. Meanwhile, ignore the bears. We are at the threshold of an epic bull market buoyed by the emerging Buenos Aires Consensus and desensitisation to Covid-19. But beware the long-term, as policymakers are sowing the seeds for a nominal rally, with inflation eventually re-emerging in the new decade. - Marko Papic, Clocktower Group. Earn 0.50 CE/CPD hrs on Portfolio Construction Forum