Cognitive Dissidents

Jacob and Rob Larity dive into another weekly update, focusing on the intertwined economies of the United States, Canada, and Mexico. They discuss how the U.S. administration's approach to tariffs and trade could significantly impact these neighboring countries, particularly highlighting Mexico's unique position to leverage its relationship with the U.S. amidst rising tensions. They explore the implications of economic policies, such as the recent jobs report and inflation data, while also dissecting the emotional drivers behind public sentiment on inflation forecasts. The conversation touches upon historical parallels in presidential second terms, underscoring the challenges that may lie ahead for Trump as he navigates a politically divided landscape. --Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(00:46) - Naptime and the Economy(22:35) - The Impact of Tariffs on Canada and Mexico(29:29) - The Economic Landscape of Mexico and Canada(45:35) - The Importance of Maritime Choke Points--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapCI Site: cognitive.investmentsSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com --Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today's volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients' material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Jacob and Elohim Monard dive into the significant shifts in voting patterns among the Latino community in the recent U.S. presidential election, highlighting how Trump's appeal has grown, particularly among younger Latino voters. Jacob and Elo discuss the complexities behind these trends, noting that while Trump secured around 40% of the Latino vote, demographic breakdowns reveal nuanced support, especially among Latino men and younger generations. Elo emphasizes that the Latino population is diverse, and their political alignment is influenced by various factors, including migration stories, geographic locations, and generational differences. The conversation further explores how the political dynamics in the U.S. reflect broader trends in Latin America, suggesting that Trump's brand of populism, or "Trumpismo," may find resonance beyond U.S. borders. The episode concludes with reflections on how these evolving narratives will shape both Latino politics and U.S. relations with Latin America moving forward. --Timestamps:(00:03) - Intro(01:34) - Analyzing the Latino Vote in the 2024 Presidential Election(22:03) - The Changing Dynamics of Latino Political Support(28:01) - The Impact of Social Media on Political Awareness Among Young Latinos(44:23) - The Evolving Identity of Hispanics in America(58:33) - The Rise of Trumpismo and Its Implications(01:03:41) - The Political Landscape: A Shift in Focus--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapCI Site: cognitive.investmentsSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com --Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today's volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients' material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Jacob Shapiro returns from paternity leave, jumping right into a discussion about the surprising implications of Trump's recent comments on military intervention and territorial ambitions. He compares his sixth-grade imagination of invading Qatar to Trump's statements about Greenland and the Gulf of Mexico, exploring the potential geopolitical ripple effects of such rhetoric. The conversation also delves into the economic landscape, particularly how anticipated tariffs under a Trump administration could impact U.S. relations with Canada and Mexico, as well as the broader implications for inflation and the labor market. Additionally, Jacob highlights a noteworthy thaw in Japan-China relations, suggesting that Japan may be recalibrating its foreign policy approach amidst changing global dynamics. Finally, the episode touches on Germany's evolving political climate and the potential for impactful reforms as the country navigates its economic challenges. --Timestamps:Chapters:(00:00) - Intro (we're so back)(03:16) - The Shift in Foreign Policy Perspectives(12:21) - Trump's Foreign Policy(19:34) - Macro-Econ Checkup(25:18) - The Impact of Immigration on Labor Markets and Inflation(35:17) - Shifting Dynamics: US Energy Policy and International Relations(40:54) - Japan's Evolving Foreign Policy(46:47) - The Shifting Political Landscape in Germany(53:11) - The Economic Shift in Germany--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapCI Site: cognitive.investmentsSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com --Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today's volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients' material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Jacob welcomes Kamran Bokhari to the podcast to discuss the shocking collapse of the Assad regime. --Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(05:30) - Who are the Syrian rebels(17:10) – Turkey + Qatar(27:20) – Kurds(37:40) – Iran and the Houthis(43:44) – Saudis, Jordan, Egypt(50:55) - The death of Islamism--Kamran Bokhari - https://newlinesinstitute.org/people/kamran-bokhari/ Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapCI Site: cognitive.investmentsSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients' material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor's particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisorThis podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Jacob checks in from paternity leave to talk to Rob about the latest in markets. From there, they offer some hopefully insightful if slightly disjointed thoughts about France (no deal), Syria (little deal), and South Korea (big deal).--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(01:01) – CI Club(05:30) – US and Global Markets(26:33) - France and Europe(35:30) – Middle East(49:13) – South Korea--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapCI Site: cognitive.investmentsSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients' material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor's particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisorThis podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Jacob and Rob parse some of President-elect Trump's first cabinet picks and what it might mean for economic policy. They compare previous approaches to economic policy and make some provocative comparisons. From there, they turn to China's (underwhelming) “stimulus” announcement last week, and close with some thoughts on Japan's recent election.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro (01:54) - Global Ice Trade(03:56) - Scott Besant's Economic Policies(18:51) - Historical Comparisons and Economic Models(33:21) - The Facade of Dollar Exchange(34:11) - El Salvador's Bitcoin Bet(35:53) - Trump's Cabinet Picks and Policy Clashes(37:08) - China's Economic Strategies and Stimulus(48:23) - Japan's Political Landscape(58:20) - China's Global Investments(59:39) - Concluding Thoughts on Global Dynamics--Referenced in the Show:Link to application for Club CI: https://bit.ly/club-ci--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapCI Site: cognitive.investmentsSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients' material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor's particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisorThis podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

While everyone has been worried about U.S. elections, Japan held elections too – with a result that has upended everything we've known about Japanese politics since 2009. To understand what has changed and what is at stake, Jacob is joined by Japan expert Tobias Harris – they chat about changes in Japan and why underestimating Japan is a bad idea. They also discuss Tobias's recent biography on former Japanese PM Shinzo Abe and his legacy.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(02:33) - Japan 101(08:07) – Japanese disaffection(16:26) – Japanese paralysis(19:17) – Zoom out(23:31) – China(31:00) – ROK/Japan(36:45) – Shinzo Abe--Referenced in the Show:Link to Tobias's book: https://www.amazon.com/Iconoclast-Shinzo-Abe-New-Japan/dp/1787383105--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

While everyone has been worried about U.S. elections, Japan held elections too – with a result that has upended everything we've known about Japanese politics since 2009. To understand what has changed and what is at stake, Jacob is joined by Japan expert Tobias Harris – they chat about changes in Japan and why underestimating Japan is a bad idea. They also discuss Tobias's recent biography on former Japanese PM Shinzo Abe and his legacy.--Timestamps:(00:00) – Intro(02:38) - Japan 101(08:00) – Japanese disaffection(16:36) – Japanes paralysis(19:15) – Zoom out(23:22) – China(30:36) – ROK/Japan(36:32) – Shinzo Abe--Link to Tobias's book: https://www.amazon.com/Iconoclast-Shinzo-Abe-New-Japan/dp/1787383105--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapCI Site: cognitive.investmentsSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients' material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor's particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisorThis podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Jacob and Rob dive into Donald Trump's surprising victory and its potential impact on various sectors, including the economy and the markets. They discuss the prevailing mood in both the US and Europe, highlighting a sense of resignation to Trump's return among many citizens. They explore the market reactions following the election results, noting the volatility in risk assets and the contrasting performance of renewable energy stocks and traditional industries like steel. The conversation also touches on the evolving political landscape in Germany, where the government is facing significant challenges, potentially reshaping Europe's response to US policy under Trump. Throughout the discussion, there is a critical examination of the term "vibes" and its influence on public sentiment and market behavior, raising questions about how perceptions can drive decisions in uncertain times.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(01:16) – Rob reaction(07:45) – Market reaction(30:20) – U.S./China(54:00) – Bitcoin(56:15) – Germany and Europe--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapCI Site: cognitive.investmentsSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients' material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor's particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisorThis podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Jacob and Marko tackle the results of the 2024 election as only they can – in a 2 hr+ episode, they discuss what happened in the election, what Trump's agenda will mean for the economy and markets, how to understand the geopolitical impact…and what his victory might mean for the future of the United States.--Timestamps:00:00 - Intro01:17– Realignment or flash in the pan?15:25 – Domestic agenda40:40 – US-China Relations1:03:40 – Mexico1:13:20 – Ukraine/EU1:27:51 – MENA/Iran1:40:25 – Future of the USA--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapCI Site: cognitive.investmentsSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients' material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor's particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisorThis podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Description (replace me)--Timestamps:00:01 - Intro01:14 - Understanding Crime in Latin America08:30 - Case Study: Guatemala and Its Challenges19:48 - Emerging Trends in Drug Trafficking22:54 - The Narco State Concept Explained31:24 - The Situation in Mexico: Democracy at Risk44:02 - El Salvador's Authoritarian Shift45:52 - Peru's Political Instability and Future Outlook56:03 - Conclusion and Final Thoughts--Referenced in the Show:https://muse.jhu.edu/pub/1/article/937740/pdfhttps://www.journalofdemocracy.org/online-exclusive/can-mexicos-next-president-control-the-military/https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/perus-anti-law-enforcement-turn-is-a-threat-to-regional-stability/--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapCI Site: cognitive.investmentsSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients' material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor's particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisorThis podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

The U.S. election next week. Even those of us that hate following this have no choice but to bite the bullet – so this week, Rob and Jacob make predictions, offer scenarios, and most importantly, try to impart some advice about how to think about what is going to happen in the next 4 years no matter who resides in the White House. --Timestamps:00:00 - Introduction 02:46 - Election Scenarios and Market Implications04:43 - Economic Indicators and Predictions10:06 - Cultural and Political Dynamics15:40 - Market Reactions and Future Projections26:52 - Market Reactions to Potential Trump Victory28:56 - Impact of Fiscal Spending and Inflation30:39 - Equity vs. Bond Markets33:42 - Gold, Bitcoin, and Commodities36:03 - Illegal Gold Mining in Latin America37:31 - Potential Harris Victory and Economic Policies41:55 - Historical Perspectives on Economic Policies46:06 - Investment Strategies Amidst Volatility50:44 - Long-term U.S. Economic Outlook56:56 - Concluding Thoughts and Future Outlook--Referenced in the Show:--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapCI Site: cognitive.investmentsSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients' material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor's particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisorThis podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Jacob welcomes Adam Mastroianni onto the show to discuss his 2023 article in Nature about how it is human nature to assume that the world is always getting worse. This is that rare bit of content that is entirely optimistic – it invites you to consider that our perception of the world is grounded not in what is actually happening in the world but in how we are programmed to think about it. --Timestamps:00:01 - Introduction to Adam Mastriani00:15 - The Illusion of Moral Decline00:31 - Human Psychology and Moral Perception04:38 - Survey Findings on Morality02:03 - Understanding Cooperation and Negativity Bias14:03 - Exploring Political Polarization11:28 - The Role of Social Media in Perception42:26 - Conclusion: Optimism in a Complex World--Referenced in the Show:Link to article: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06137-x--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapCI Site: cognitive.investmentsSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients' material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Chartable - https://chartable.com/privacyPodtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Jacob and Rob take a break from geopolitics and markets to talk about changes at Team CI – why they are moving their asset management activities to The Bespoke Group, how Cognitive Investments is changing… and how you can be a part of it... They unveil the launch of Club CI, a new community designed for like-minded individuals seeking to deepen their understanding of geopolitics, technology, and personal growth. This episode dives into the structural changes within Cognitive Investments, highlighting Jacob's new role as head of geopolitical research at the Bespoke Group and Rob's position as CIO. They discuss the importance of creating a supportive environment for sharing knowledge and fostering creativity among members, emphasizing the dual tiers of membership that cater to both established professionals and emerging talents. The conversation also touches on the integration of productivity tools and methods from experts like Nareth Carlisle, aimed at enhancing personal effectiveness and well-being. As they explore the vision behind Club CI, Jacob and Rob invite listeners to consider how they can engage with this evolving community. --Timestamps:00:00 - Intro00:56 - What is Club CI?03:54 - Transitioning to Bespoke Group09:14 - Building the CI Community10:12 - Understanding Human Capital Trends21:37 - The Vision for Club CI22:09 - The Structure of Club CI29:01 - Member vs. Fellow Tiers Explained55:22 - Closing Thoughts and How to Join--Referenced in the Show:--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapCI Site: cognitive.investmentsSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients' material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor's particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisorThis podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Chartable - https://chartable.com/privacyPodtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Jacob and Rob consider how the world has changed (or hasn't) since the Hamas attack on Israel on Oct 7, 2023. From there, they offer thoughts on innovation in seemingly random countries like Iraq and Chile, before turning to more traditional topics like the U.S. economy. They close with a few bright spots…and a dumpster fire in Pakistan.--Timestamps:00:01 - Intro00:55 - Reflections on October 7, 202303:49 - The Impact of Global Events on Trade09:00 - The Situation in Iraq and Food Self-Sufficiency29:28 - Economic Growth and Innovation in Developing Countries29:38 - Concerns about Ireland's Economic Future51:30 - Analyzing Pakistan's Economic Challenges01:00:35 - Conclusion and Final Thoughts--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapCI Site: cognitive.investmentsSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients' material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor's particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisorThis podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Chartable - https://chartable.com/privacyPodtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Rob and Jacob take a step back from a crazy week to talk about some of the other stories that have been outshone by the explodey events of the week: port strikes in the U.S., the pitfalls of protectionism, Brazilian success, insurance markets, and more. The podcast delves into the significant labor unrest currently affecting ports on the Gulf and East Coast of the United States, marking the first major strike since 1977. Jacob Shapiro and Rob Larity explore the implications of this strike, particularly its potential impact on the supply chain during the crucial holiday shipping season and the broader economic consequences, including inflationary pressures. They draw parallels to past labor movements and discuss the evolving dynamics of labor and production in the U.S., highlighting the challenges posed by automation and protectionist policies. The conversation also touches on the geopolitical context, emphasizing how current events in the Middle East and elsewhere are intertwined with domestic labor issues. Furthermore, they reflect on the inadequacies of insurance coverage in light of recent flooding in North Carolina, illustrating the hidden vulnerabilities within both personal and corporate risk management.--Timestamps:00:01 - Intro00:47 - Port Strikes in the US and Historical Context09:50 - Impact of Port Strikes on Supply Chains39:57 - Insurance and Risk Management Insights53:25 - Brazil's Economic Situation and Credit Ratings54:55 - Conclusion and Final Thoughts--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapCI Site: cognitive.investmentsSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients' material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor's particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisorThis podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Chartable - https://chartable.com/privacyPodtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Jacob welcomes Hamidreza Azizi, Visiting Fellow at German Institute for International and Security Affairs, onto the podcast for a special episode on the escalation of fighting between Iran and Israel. This podcast episode delves into the complex and precarious situation faced by Iran amidst escalating regional tensions and internal political strife. Hamidreza shares his insights on Iran's strategic options, which he characterizes as increasingly grim and desperate. The discussion highlights Iran's recent missile strikes on Israel as a sign of desperation rather than strength, aiming to control damage and assert some level of deterrence in a rapidly deteriorating situation. They also touch on the internal political dynamics in Iran, including the impact of leadership changes and public sentiment towards foreign policy. Azizi emphasizes the challenges Iran faces, including a lack of reliable allies and the potential for further escalation in its conflict with Israel and the United States. --Timestamps:00:01 - Intro 00:28 - Iran's Strategic Position 07:04 - Iran's Asymmetric Deterrence Strategy38:31 - Iran's Internal Politics and External Strategy48:10 - Conclusion and Reflections on Iran's Future--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapCI Site: cognitive.investmentsSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients' material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor's particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisorThis podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Chartable - https://chartable.com/privacyPodtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Jacob and Marko talk for a Joe-Rogan-amount of time – in this two-hour episode, they cover the Iranian threat to bomb Israel and what it does (and doesn't) mean for the Middle East, whether China's stimulus is real, and what's next for the Russia-Ukraine war. They also explore Trump v Harris victory scenarios…and close out with the best NBA analysis money can buy.--Timestamps:00:01 - Introductory Remarks00:57 - Middle East Tensions: Iran and Israel01:27 - Reassessing Israel's Strategic Goals02:29 - The Impact of Iranian Retaliation03:59 - Market Implications: Oil and Equities34:04 - China's Economic Stimulus: A Policy Shift?01:13:18 - Trump vs. Harris: Election Scenarios01:17:32 - The Future of Russia-Ukraine Conflict01:35:26 - NBA Preview and Predictions01:47:45 - Closing Thoughts and Outro--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapCI Site: cognitive.investmentsSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients' material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor's particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisorThis podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Chartable - https://chartable.com/privacyPodtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Elo returns to the podcast to give his thoughts about Alberto Fujimori, Peru's former dictator President. He was Bukele before there was Bukele, Milei before there was Milei, even Chavez before there was Chavez. His rise and fall tells us so much about the history of Latin American geopolitics – and points to a melancholic not-so-shining path forward.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(01:14) - Who was Fujimori(09:37) – Japan and Peru(14:12) – The Rise of Fujimori(28:33) – Vladimiro Montesinos(35:45) – Post-Fujimori(40:06)- Fujimori Legacy(49:45) – Thank you but you're a f'ing dictator.--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapCI Site: cognitive.investmentsSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients' material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor's particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisorThis podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Chartable - https://chartable.com/privacyPodtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Jacob and Rob dive into the microgeopolitics of Los Angeles before focusing on the big macro news of the week: Chinese economic stimulus. They give the bull and bear case for China's moves to stimulate the economy. Also, the geopolitics of noodles.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(01:00) - Microgeopolitics of LA28:00 – Ports, France, and Brazil30:00 – China--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapCI Site: cognitive.investmentsSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients' material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor's particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisorThis podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Chartable - https://chartable.com/privacyPodtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Jacob welcomes PauloMacro onto the podcast to discuss his macro view, oil, grains, emerging markets… and why the time might have finally come for Brazil.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(01:22) - Paulo's view(13:05) – US elections(19:32) – Oil(33:08)– China(41:20) – Grains(51:10) – Brazil--Referenced in the Show:Link to Paulo's Substack: https://substack.com/@paulomacro--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapCI Site: cognitive.investmentsSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients' material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor's particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisorThis podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Chartable - https://chartable.com/privacyPodtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Jacob and Rob discuss the Fed's decision to cut interest rates, the BIOSECURE Act, Israel's new front against Hezbollah, and Mexico's judicial reforms. The overall theme of the podcast, despite a general overtone of paranoid dystopianism from the week's events, is the slow and steady breaking of rules and norms in so many aspects of global politics and trade.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(02:05-10:00) – Fed(09:10) – BIOSECURE Act(22:23) – Hezbollah and Israel(42:51) – Mexico's judicial reforms--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapCI Site: cognitive.investmentsSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients' material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor's particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisorThis podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Chartable - https://chartable.com/privacyPodtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Jacob and Rob are back from vacation! They share some microgeopolitical takes from their respective journeys and talk about the faceoff between Elon Musk and Brazil.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(00:40) – Fargo(19:50) – Briancon(30:00) – Brazil vs X--Referenced in the Show:--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapCI Site: cognitive.investmentsSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients' material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor's particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisorThis podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Chartable - https://chartable.com/privacyPodtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Jacob welcomes Alexandra Finch on the podcast to talk about the mpox outbreak in the context of the international legal frameworks that apply including WHO's emergency declaration, how they are being applied, and how they are/should be reformed.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(01:30) - Mpox emergency declaration(06:30) - Needs v. realities(12:56) - How does the WHO actually work? Who pays for the vaccines?(22:30) – International Health Regulations and Global Pandemic Treaty(33:55) – Pitfalls of international law(41:30) – How to build trust in institutions--Referenced in the Show:https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-world-desperately-needs-a-new-pandemic-treaty/https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2410395.https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/21/opinion/mpox-vaccines-africa-pandemic.html--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapCI Site: cognitive.investmentsSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients' material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor's particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisorThis podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Chartable - https://chartable.com/privacyPodtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

John Fowler and Jacob Shapiro dive into the current geopolitical landscape, beginning with a lively discussion about the Democratic National Convention and Kamala Harris's rising poll numbers. They touch on the ongoing conflict in the Arabian Gulf, examining the Red Sea Tanker attack and its implications for global shipping. They also speculate on the growing tensions between Israel and Hamas amidst rumors of a call between Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu. Narendra Modi's significant visit to Ukraine highlights changing geopolitical dynamics, while Elon Musk's controversy with Brazil over censorship broadens the conversation to global tech regulation. The episode concludes with an over/under segment, providing predictions on pressing issues like the Gaza ceasefire and Canada's railroad strike.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(01:34) - Kamala Harris' Poll Numbers and Media Coverage(04:05) - On-the-Ground Insights from Chicago(08:56) - Red Sea Tanker Attack and Global Shipping Disruptions(14:37) - Gaza Ceasefire Negotiations and Trump-Netanyahu Call(20:00) - India's Diplomatic Moves and Arms Import Strategy(25:18) - Elon Musk's Twitter Tantrum in Brazil(30:22) - Over/Under Predictions and Wrap-Up--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapCI Site: cognitive.investmentsSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients' material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor's particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisorThis podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Chartable - https://chartable.com/privacyPodtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Rob is on vacation, so Jacob welcomes Sim Tack to join him in his weekly Friday slot to discuss Ukraine's invasion of Russia. The two address the logistical challenges facing Ukraine, such as air support and ammunition shortages, and analyzes the strategic and tactical objectives of the Ukrainian offensive. They explore various potential motivations behind the invasion, including creating negotiation leverage and affecting Russian forces' deployment. The conversation also delves into broader geopolitical implications, including Ukraine's coordination of Western-supplied weaponry and the potential long-term impacts on Russia and Ukraine's capabilities.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(01:14) Welcoming SimTac and Initial Thoughts on Ukraine(02:06) - Ukraine's Recent Military Actions(07:15) - Russian Air Power and Tactical Challenges(14:54) - Ukraine's Strategic Objectives(25:02) - Future of the Conflict and Military Leadership(32:58) - European Sentiment and Infrastructure Threats43:49) - Conclusion and Contact Information--Referenced in the Show:--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapCI Site: cognitive.investmentsSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients' material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor's particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisorThis podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Chartable - https://chartable.com/privacyPodtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Jacob and Rob talk about the expanding monkeypox global health emergency. From there they turn to artificial intelligence to talk about whether comparisons to previous bubbles in rail and telecoms are good models for thinking about it going forward.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro (01:39) – Nordstream sabotage(04:16) – Monkeypox(11:00) – Government responses(20:20) – Investment implications(26:43) – Artificial Intelligence--Referenced in the Show:--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapCI Site: cognitive.investmentsSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients' material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor's particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisorThis podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Chartable - https://chartable.com/privacyPodtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Matthew Pines rejoins the podcast to talk about the virtue of Bitcoin as a part of U.S. national security policy. Come for the philosophical discussion on Bitcoin and the role of the U.S. dollar – stay for Matt's updates on aliens at the end.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro (03:00) - Bitcoin(12:55) – Philosophical considerations(27:05) – Rails / assets(40:37) – China's ability to exploit vulnerabilities(50:30) – Aliens--Referenced in the Show:--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapCI Site: cognitive.investmentsSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients' material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor's particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisorThis podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Chartable - https://chartable.com/privacyPodtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Rob dissects the market volatility of the week with characteristic apolmb. From there, Rob and Jacob tackle the overthrow of Bangladesh's government and a discovery in Japan that may change the way the semiconductor industry works. Also, Rob's take on the Olympics.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(00:41) - Market Madness: A Week of Financial Turbulence(02:46) - Understanding Market Volatility(08:37) - Investment Strategies in Volatile Markets(19:18) - Bangladesh Political Crisis(28:26) - Bangladesh's Garment Industry Resilience(29:15) - Global Apparel Export Dynamics(30:48) - Challenges in Textile-Dependent Economies(33:52) - Bangladesh's Economic and Political Landscape(36:05) - Innovations in Semiconductor Manufacturing(37:53) - Investment Implications in Technology(42:21) - The Future of Semiconductor Giants(47:37) - Intel's Struggles and Market Sentiment(50:16) - Paris Olympics Highlights(54:22) - Conclusion and Disclaimers--Referenced in the Show:--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapCI Site: cognitive.investmentsSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients' material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor's particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisorThis podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Chartable - https://chartable.com/privacyPodtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Jacob and Rob talk briefly about emerging markets and a return to orthodox economic policies in places like Ethiopia, Nigeria, and Egypt. After a brief digression into the Bank of Japan's decision to raise interest rates, they spend the rest of the podcast discussing a study that looked at the impact of direct cash transfers on labor supply and quality – and what it means that the key takeaway was that people want to have fun. --Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(01:47) - CI Club Concept(05:45) - Global Geopolitical Updates(07:38) - Focus on Nigeria and Ethiopia(13:51) - Economic Strategies and Challenges(17:49) - Japan's Economic Policies(20:50) - Unconditional Cash Transfers Study(29:05) - Challenges in U.S. Immigration and Workforce(29:34) - Anecdotes on Job Market Shifts(31:23) - Decline in Male Labor Force Participation(34:57) - Universal Basic Income Study Findings(40:34) - Philosophical Implications of Leisure(44:29) - Automation and Future of Work(46:47) - Starbucks Earnings and Service Quality(48:06) - Historical Context and Policy Reflections(55:59) - Concluding Thoughts and Reflections--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapCI Site: cognitive.investmentsSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients' material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor's particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisorThis podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Chartable - https://chartable.com/privacyPodtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Jacob welcomes Elohim Monard back to the podcast for an emergency conversation about the deteriorating situation in Venezuela. While they both bring idealism to the conversation, it is hard to conclude that the current situation will lead to change – and that instead it will empower rogue elements, criminal enterprises, and authoritarian regimes around the world.--Timestamps:Coming Soon (Jacob the Producer is sick rn)--Referenced in the Show:--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapCI Site: cognitive.investmentsSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients' material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor's particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisorThis podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Chartable - https://chartable.com/privacyPodtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Rob and Jacob spend a few minutes discussing Kamala Harris before moving on to all the things happening in the world you're missing because Trump and Harris are sucking up the headlines. They discuss Mexico trade relations, signals of change in Cuba and Venezuela, and major developments in Egypt and Vietnam, before closing with some bullishness on Japan. --Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(01:50) - Kamala(05:55) – Mexico/Brazil/China(17:15) – Cuba and Venezuela(33:00) – Egypt(43:51) – Vietnam(47:50) – Japan--Referenced in the Show:--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapCI Site: cognitive.investmentsSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients' material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor's particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisorThis podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Chartable - https://chartable.com/privacyPodtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Jacob and Rob discuss the attempted assassination on former U.S. President Donald Trump. They explore scenarios related to tariffs and currency devaluation if Trump wins, as appears increasingly likely. They close with thoughts about CHina and why they are optimistic about the future.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(00:50) – Assassination in U.S. history(19:00) – Tariffs(34:00) – Devaluing the dollar(50:50) – China(59:05) – Optimism, scenarios, and why the Fourth Turning is bullshit--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapCI Site: cognitive.investmentsSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients' material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor's particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisorThis podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Chartable - https://chartable.com/privacyPodtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Matt rejoins the podcast to talk about a first step toward estate planning: trusts. That may sound wonky or boring, but stay with us – not only do we make it geopolitical, we make it philosophical, interesting, and relevant. Come for the intersection of politics and planning, but stay for the important points about privacy at the end as well. --Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(00:28) - Overview of Trusts and Geopolitical Context(02:59) - Historical Origins of Trusts(10:09) - Modern Trust Structures and Legal Nuances(15:33) - Revocable vs. Irrevocable Trusts(19:08) - Categories and Types of Trusts(29:12) - Understanding Revocable Trusts(29:34) - The Role of Trustees and Asset Protection(29:53) - Privatizing Decision Making with Trusts(30:41) - Irrevocable Trusts and Third-Party Trustees(32:31) - Who Needs a Revocable Living Trust?(33:38) - The Probate Process and Intestate Succession(35:32) - The Importance of Structured Estate Planning(38:16) - Advanced Estate Planning Strategies(41:13) - Demographics and Estate Planning(52:00) - The Impact of the Corporate Transparency Act(54:38) - The Importance of Privacy in Estate Planning(59:10) - Concluding Thoughts and Final Advice--Referenced in the Show:--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapCI Site: cognitive.investmentsSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients' material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor's particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisorThis podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Chartable - https://chartable.com/privacyPodtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Jacob and Rob reconvene to talk about the latest CPI print, inflation expectations, and the U.S. elections. They also get philosophical about populism and apply their insights to different countries: the U.S., France, the UK, Argentina, and Germany. --Timestamps:(00:00) -Intro(00:39) - Weekly Chat with Rob: Catching Up(01:17) - Inflation Discussion: Latest CPI Print(03:36) - US Economic Slowdown: Service Sector and Manufacturing(06:22) - Anecdotal Evidence: Tree Trimming and Airline Demand(14:02) - Misallocation of Resources and Policy Volatility(16:27) - US Election Impact on Economic Policies(23:12) - Trade Tensions Under Biden vs. Trump(24:08) - Populism and Global Political Trends(25:44) - The Revolt of the Masses: Historical Context(26:48) - Authority Structures and Information Democratization(27:51) - French Elections: A Case Study(29:58) - The Importance of Reading Books(31:49) - Populism and Its Manifestations(33:59) - Country-Specific Political Dynamics(39:32) - Investment Strategies in Uncertain Times(42:47) - Final Thoughts and Recommendations(47:06) - Disclaimer and Legal Information--CI Site: cognitive.investmentsJacob Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients' material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor's particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisorThis podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Chartable - https://chartable.com/privacyPodtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Shane McLorrain rejoins the podcast to take a victory lap on his predictions from a few weeks ago. He and Jacob talk about the election results, discuss what is next for France and Europe, and close with some spicy thoughts on lap swimming etiquette in ville lumière.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction and Welcome(00:59) - French Elections Recap(02:10) - Election Results Analysis(03:46) - The Republican Wall and Far-Right Dynamics(09:08) - Future of French Politics(15:56) - Macron's Presidency and Reforms(23:34) - European Parliament and Far-Right Alliances(28:12) - Rassemblement Nationale Under Investigation(29:07) - European Far-Right Movements(29:55) - Contrarian View on Democracy(31:29) - Maloney's Unique Position(32:27) - French Enthusiasm Against Fascism(38:03) France's Relationship with the EU(46:28) - Irish Politics and Public Sentiment(49:40) - Swimming Culture in France(51:07) - Conclusion and Disclaimers--CI Site: cognitive.investmentsJacob Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients' material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor's particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisorThis podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Chartable - https://chartable.com/privacyPodtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Welcome to the first episode of the newly rebranded "Jacob Shapiro Podcast!" Jacob L. Shapiro brings in the illustrious Jacob N. Shapiro from Princeton University to chat about disinformation, overhyped fears of AI, the impacts of social media on mental health, and the political and economic implications of China's Belt and Road Initiative. They also delve into worries surrounding the U.S. election's election staff safety, and the future of media trust. We hope you enjoy :)--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction and Podcast Rebranding(02:30) - The Jacob Shapiro Confusion(05:00) - Interview with Jacob N. Shapiro(07:15) - Concerns About Disinformation(09:45) - The Role of Technology in Disinformation(12:20) - Historical Revisionism and AI(15:35) - TikTok and Social Media Influence(20:10) - Mental Health and Social Media(25:00) - The Future of Trusted News Sources(30:00) - The Impact of Gen AI on Journalism(35:00) - Shift to National News and Its Effects(40:10) - Economic Models for News Industry(45:00) - Challenges in Monetizing Quality Content(50:30) - Political Polarization and Media(55:45) - Election Concerns in the U.S.(01:00:00) - Foreign Interference and Election Security(01:05:50) - Interstate vs. Intrastate Conflicts(01:10:30) - China's Influence and Global Competition(01:15:00) - El Salvador's Bukele and Regional Politics(01:20:00) - Commencement Address Principles(01:25:00) - Closing Remarks and Disclaimers--Referenced in the Show:Where Americans get their News: https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/11/15/more-americans-are-getting-news-on-tiktok-bucking-the-trend-seen-on-most-other-social-media-sites/Independent Affiliation: https://news.gallup.com/poll/548459/independent-party-tied-high-democratic-new-low.aspx--Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients' material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor's particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisorThis podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Chartable -...

Rob and Jacob take a step back from the nitty-gritty of geopolitics and markets to talk about the boom in biotech stocks related to GLP-1s. They explore whether people are getting more health conscious or not, and what that might mean for the future of the biotech industry. --Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(01:45) - GLP-1s and Ozempic(10:50) - Health consciousness(28:45) - Individualized healthcare(37:25)-end - The future of biotech--CI Site: cognitive.investmentsJacob Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients' material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor's particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisorThis podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Chartable - https://chartable.com/privacyPodtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Jacob and John Fowler, former diplomat and lawyer and now partner at International Intrigue, are creating a new show on geopolitics modeled after the popular sports analysis show Pardon the Interruption on ESPN. Their goal? To bring you honest, objective, rigorous geopolitical analysis on the week's most critical topics with irony, humor, and humility…and all in 30 minutes or less. Impossible you say? Perhaps! But we are trying anyway. Enjoy the show, share your feedback with us, and check out our friends at International Intrigue, they are doing great work. See you on the Dark Side of the Moon.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(01:45) – Assange(06:45) – Bolivia's failed coup(10:30) – Chinese lunar probe(14:45) – Kenya's protests(19:00) – The Biden-Trump debate--Referenced in the Show:--CI Site: cognitive.investmentsJacob Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients' material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor's particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisorThis podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Chartable - https://chartable.com/privacyPodtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Jacob Shapiro welcomes Elohim Monard back on the podcast for a serious and important discussion on crime in Latin America. They discuss the reasons behind the increase of crime in the region, how it ties into migration, why strongmen like Bukele are so fascinating to geopolitical nerds everywhere…and why pessimism might be the answer to attacking crime head on.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro (00:23) - Why is crime increasing?(02:11) - tatistics on Violence in Latin America(03:16) - Migration and Its Complexities(04:41) - The Paradox of US-Latin America Relations(06:56) - Root Causes of Crime in Latin America(17:14) - Transnational Crime Networks(21:48) - Local Control and Government Response(33:46) - The Bukele Approach to Crime(40:05) - The Challenge of Rule of Law in Latin America(41:14) - Mexico's Approach to Crime and Militarization(42:07) - The Paradox of Democracy and Authoritarianism(43:44) - Criminal Organizations and Government Control(46:49) - The Role of Criminal Groups in Society(01:00:31) - The Need for Transnational Solutions(01:07:53) - The Impact of the Pandemic on Crime(01:10:17) - The Venezuelan Crisis and Regional Instability(01:18:43) - Concluding Thoughts on Crime and Governance--CI Site: cognitive.investmentsJacob Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients' material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor's particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisorThis podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Chartable - https://chartable.com/privacyPodtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Jacob welcomes Shane McLorrain on the podcast to talk about French President Emmanuel Macron's election gambit – and how it seems to blowing up in his face…but how it may not have the outsized impact on France than some expected.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(01:18) – Overview of France right now(09:00) – Macron's likability(17:31) – What was Macron thinking?(22:50) - Silver linings(27:40) – French Civil War?(32:14) – Effects on EU(49:40) – What to watch --CI Site: cognitive.investmentsJacob Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients' material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor's particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisorThis podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Chartable - https://chartable.com/privacyPodtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Referenced in the Show:https://cognitivedissidents.org/--CI Site: cognitive.investmentsJacob Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients' material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor's particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisorThis podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Chartable - https://chartable.com/privacyPodtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Jacob brings back Ignacio Asis and Elohim Monard for a long awaited reaction to Javier Milei's victory in Argentina's presidential election. They explore how his term has gone thus far, and break down the big bills he was able to pass through Argentina's Senate this week. They also talk about regional and even international implications.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction(01:19) - Discussion on Argentine Politics(04:29) - Milei's Legislative Achievements(05:54) - Economic and Social Impact(10:17) - Milei's Government Reduction Strategy(16:44) - International Perception and Narrative(22:09) - Comparison with Bukele(26:56) - Milei Learning Curve and Global Polarization(28:37) - Security and Basic Agenda(31:04) - The Role of Military and Security in Argentina(32:46) - Narco-Traffic and Security Policies(36:33) - Milei's Promises and Economic Agenda(39:02) - Governance and Market Reactions(42:39) - Regional Impact and Right-Wing Populism(48:09) - Final Thoughts and Future Outlook(52:31) - Conclusion and Disclaimer--CI Site: cognitive.investmentsJacob Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients' material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor's particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisorThis podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Chartable - https://chartable.com/privacyPodtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Jacob and Rob tackle a subject they've been avoiding due to its massiveness and ubiquity: Artificial Intelligence. They also do a segment of microgeopolitics (Jacob was in Bogota this week) and close out with initial thoughts on French President Emmanuel Macron's surprising decision to call for legislative elections after his drubbing in European Parliament elections.--Timestamps:(00:00) – Microgeopolitics: Bogota edition(13:37) – Artificial Intelligence(59:03) – France--Referenced in the Show:--CI Site: cognitive.investmentsJacob Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients' material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor's particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisorThis podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Chartable - https://chartable.com/privacyPodtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Jacob welcomes Matthew McClintock, Founder and Executive Managing Director of Bespoke, to the podcast. Bespoke and CI are strategic partners, and this will be the first of what will become a monthly cadence as Jacob and Matt aim to explore and apply the intersection of geopolitics, investing, and blockchain with practical ideas about planning. Jacob and Matt have an open and candid conversation about Matt's background, what Bespoke does, and offer some thoughts about how to think about estate planning, the future of money, and more.--Timestamps:(00:00) – Introducing Matt and Bespoke(13:00) – Estate Planning 101(25:30) – Iteration(30:11) – The good life(43:00) – The future of money and the role of crypto--Referenced in the Show:--CI Site: cognitive.investmentsJacob Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients' material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor's particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisorThis podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Chartable - https://chartable.com/privacyPodtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Jacob welcomes Dmitri Alperovitch onto the podcast. Jacob met Dmitri via Twitter, where he was arguing against the case Dale Copeland made on the podcast for China not invading Taiwan anytime soon. Dmitri lays out why he thinks Dale (and Jacob!) are wrong – about China, about Taiwan, and about the United States.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(1:30) – Taiwan as Berlin(17:10) – Taiwanese independence(29:23) – Xi Jinpin psychoanalysis(37:00) – US policy towards China(44:13) – US strategies with China--Referenced in the Show:Link to Dmitri's book: https://www.amazon.com/World-Brink-America-Twenty-First-Century/dp/1541704096--CI Site: cognitive.investmentsJacob Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients' material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor's particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisorThis podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Chartable - https://chartable.com/privacyPodtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Jacob takes to the mic solo to fire up the hot-take factory. He previews Mexico's elections – situating Mexican democracy in its own history, surveying AMLO's successes and failures, and parsing who Claudia Sheinaum is and why she might be better for Mexico than you think. He also identifies the key questions you should be thinking about in terms of the election and Mexican-U.S. relations going forward--Timestamps:(00:00) – Intro(00:08) - Mexico's Geopolitical Importance(03:03) - Historical Context of Mexico's Democracy(10:22) – Claudia Sheinbaum as AMLO's Successor(20:42) - Comparisons and Future Projections(24:11) - Mexico's Foreign Policy and US Relations--Referenced in the Show:Link to Sheinbaum article: https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Omar-Masera/publication/226764071_Mitigating_Carbon_Emissions_while_Advancing_National_DevelopmentPriorities_The_Case_of_Mexico/links/550c5a0b0cf2ac2905a3db2b/Mitigating-Carbon-Emissions-while-Advancing-National-DevelopmentPriorities-The-Case-of-Mexico.pdf--CI Site: cognitive.investmentsJacob Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients' material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor's particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisorThis podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Chartable - https://chartable.com/privacyPodtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Akshar Patel joins the podcast to talk about India. Jacob and Akshar explore what caste really means, how religion and caste affect Indian politics, and explore Akshar's idea of Ideologues v. Identitarians in Indian politics. They apply some of these insights to India's upcoming elections and what is at stake in Modi's transformation of the country. --Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(02:30) – The Emissary(06:30) – Left v right in India(12:20) – Caste and Religion(35:05) – Farmers and Soldiers(43:15) – Ideologues v Identitarians(48:21) – India's elections(01:01:20) – India's future--Referenced in the Show:Link to Akshar's article: https://theemissary.co/the-million-minorities-theory-of-indian-politics/--CI Site: cognitive.investmentsJacob Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients' material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor's particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisorThis podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Chartable - https://chartable.com/privacyPodtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Jacob and Rob are here to bring balance to the force. They discuss why inflation expectations might be coming unhinged, how the Fed is trying to scare the market with its response, and just how much the Fed doesn't have under its control. Come for the market/geopolitics talk, but stay for the extended Star Wars metaphors and the advice at the end about why buy&hold might be a strategy of a bygone era.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(01:01) - Markets Check-In(10:45) – Inflation expectations and why consumers are so mad(19:14) - Weird wage growth numbers(25:43) - Fed response(34:50) – Inflation and markets are out of control + volatility clusters--CI Site: cognitive.investmentsJacob Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients' material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor's particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisorThis podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Chartable - https://chartable.com/privacyPodtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Kamran Bokhari rejoins the podcast to offer insightful perspectives on the apex of the Iranian leviathan. They discuss Ebrahim Raisi's shocking death, the implications of the future of Iran, and what a post-Khamenei world might look like.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(01:30) – Khamenei's successor(08:40) – Conspiracy theories about Khamenei's death(14:13) – What happens next?(25:00) – Weakening of the Supreme Leader(36:30) – Chances of an Iranian civil war( 44:42) – Houthis, Gaza, and Jordan--CI Site: cognitive.investmentsJacob Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients' material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor's particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisorThis podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Chartable - https://chartable.com/privacyPodtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Cousin Marko and Jacob are back at it. Marko shares why he's turned bearish on the US after being “manically” bullish for many moons. They discuss China/India and compare/contrast the equity markets there. A brief discussion on Russia/Ukraine and Europe in general and a cold shower on former President Donald Trump's threats to Mexico leads into an extended discussion on the NBA – predictions + the rise and fall of great players + the U.S.-led quest to hamper European success in the league. Enjoy, y'all.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(01:20) – US inflation, market, etc. (09:45) – China/India markets and demographics(31:00) - Regime risks in the USA(32:55) – Europe - Putin's new defense minister, Russia's new push, Slovakia's assassination attempt(44:30) – US/Mexico(49:46) – Basketball--CI Site: cognitive.investmentsJacob Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients' material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor's particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisorThis podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Chartable - https://chartable.com/privacyPodtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp