Cognitive Dissidents

Round two. Same four analysts, a lot more whiskey, and a lot less structure. Peter Zeihan, Marko Papic, and Matt Gertken sit back down with Jacob - a man who cut his teeth pestering all three of them for their pieces as a Stratfor intern - for an unfiltered conversation about how they actually became geopolitical strategists. They trade formative-moment stories from Stratfor's early-2000s "golden age" (including the Egypt/Mubarak call that made Jacob's career), debate whether corporate America can ever hire real geopolitical talent, and each name the one book that shaped how they see the world - from World War Z to Aristotle to The Ingenuity Gap. Along the way: George Friedman lore, the DC Comics-vs-Marvel theory of geopolitical shops, and a genuinely moving closing tribute to the mentor who built this whole coaching tree. Part reunion, part masterclass in how to think about the world - and part roast session.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Welcome Back Round Two(00:52) - Whiskey And Loose Format(01:34) - Formative Stratfor Moments(02:24) - Arab Spring Cred Test(04:17) - Stratfor Coaching Tree(07:50) - Pipeline After Cold War(14:17) - Academia Versus Geopolitics(17:14) - Analyst Craft And Courage(20:22) - Chief Geopolitical Officer Debate(22:55) - Training Gap And Time Horizons(25:29) - Universities And MBA Reform(27:39) - Ideology And Groupthink(30:02) - Theory Versus Practice(30:57) - Frameworks Beat Facts(31:44) - Operationalizing Geopolitics(34:24) - Training Pipelines and MBAs(37:39) - Sector Specialists and Scale(40:01) - Everyone a Geostrategist(41:01) - Deglobalization in Fashion(42:51) - Formative Books Roundtable(51:07) - Great Men and Psychology(54:21) - Empathetic Analysis Explained(56:25) - Displacement and Perspective(58:23) - Formative Experiences Teaser(58:50) - Yugoslavia Falls Apart(59:15) - Tito Memories and Disillusion(59:58) - Conspiracies and Nihilism(01:01:23) - Identity in the Balkans(01:03:51) - Living With Uncertainty(01:04:39) - Midwest Roots and Leaving Home(01:06:18) - Can Places Change(01:07:32) - America as Debate Laboratory(01:10:22) - Learning to Write Analysis(01:14:39) - Chip on Shoulder Mindset(01:18:22) - Morality Versus Analysis(01:21:12) - Breaking Intellectual Chains(01:23:53) - Finding the Fulcrum Question(01:24:43) - Final Words and Gratitude--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today's volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko's Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko's Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko's Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko's Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Sixteen years after last sharing a table together, four Stratfor alumni reunite for a wide-ranging conversation on the decade ahead. Jacob and Marko are joined by Peter Zeihan, and Matt Gertken to tackle three questions: How does the world end in the next 10 years? What core belief could each of us get wrong? And what's the least expected, most likely thing to happen next?The conversation ranges from deglobalization and collapsing oil supply chains to the demographic cliff facing the developed world, the odds of deflation versus inflation in the 2030s, and whether the global order ends up multipolar, bipolar, or unipolar. They also debate the odds of a US-China clash over Taiwan, and whether the nation-state can survive a coming showdown with the tech companies and billionaires who increasingly control critical infrastructure - including orbit.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Welcome and Setup(02:05) - Reunion at the Table(03:11) - Episode Premise and Format(04:22) - Zeihan on Deglobalization(06:42) - Energy Shock Fallout(08:52) - Demographics and Demand Crash(11:03) - Deflation vs Inflation Debate(16:25) - Drone Warfare Dark Turn(18:21) - Semiconductors Reality Check(27:27) - Marco Goes Nuclear(30:10) - Russia Collapse Scenarios(33:18) - Nukes Spread and Ukraine Endgame(35:31) - Supply Chain Shockwaves(36:34) - Putin Hell Bar Joke(37:18) - Europe Expansion Debate(39:26) - EU Becomes Military Union(40:37) - Post Putin Chaos Risks(43:08) - Russian Elite Succession(44:27) - Civil War Nuclear Fear(47:34) - China Fills The Vacuum(52:26) - Taiwan Timeline Scenario(53:59) - Drones Nukes And Invasion(56:43) - Deterrence And Flashpoints(01:03:34) - China Demographics Clash(01:05:15) - Depopulation Not Disaster(01:06:14) - Black Plague Lessons(01:07:11) - Automation Versus Depopulation(01:07:22) - Japan China Depopulation Debate(01:09:31) - End of Nation State(01:11:18) - Shocks and State Capacity(01:12:04) - Broken World of More(01:13:07) - Knowledge Networks Collapse(01:14:31) - Affluence Feudalism Demand(01:16:51) - Brittle AI Chip Supply(01:21:39) - Ingenuity Gap Reversal(01:23:34) - Rapid Fire Predictions(01:35:47) - State Versus Tech Showdown(01:40:24) - Wrap and Break--Referenced in the Show:https://zeihan.com/--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today's volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--

Eric Olander, editor-in-chief of the China Global South Project, joins the pod to discuss the developments on the other side of the globe. From Ho Chi Minh City, Eric explains how the Global South actually sees the US-Iran war, why nobody expects China to ride to anyone's rescue, and how Vietnam's tariff and energy shocks became a never-again moment. He and Jacob dig into the myth that tariffs can implode China, America's fading China literacy, and why the next order won't be Chinese-led - but China will be its transformational character.*Note: There are some weird buzzing sounds in the pod, we know! There was some sort of issue uploading the audio, we're on it.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Welcome and Guest Intro(00:46) - World Cup Travel Chaos(02:01) - Soccer Politics and Tensions(03:33) - Meet Eric Olander(05:32) - China's Transformation Story(07:54) - Global South Views of China(10:26) - China as Daily Operating System(13:12) - Pew Poll Surprises Explained(14:10) - Southeast Asia vs Northeast Asia(17:32) - Why Philippines Aligns With US(20:10) - Japan Taiwan Flashpoint(21:15) - Supply Chains and Sea Lanes(23:36) - Japan Rearms for Post US Era(28:19) - Japan's Regional Influence(30:38) - Japan as Counterbalance(32:04) - Drone Age Security Shift(33:05) - South China Sea Alarm(33:28) - Iran War Global South(38:37) - China Gains and Risks(40:46) - No Alliance Expectations(43:51) - ICBM Test Explained(47:40) - Decoupling and US Pragmatists(50:35) - People to People Breakdown(54:41) - China Blowing Europe Window(58:56) - Mutual Misunderstanding Finale(59:55) - Closing Thanks and Signoff--Referenced in the Show:--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today's volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--Mentioned in this episode:Check Out Future Hindsight!If you enjoy our podcast, check out our homies over at Future Hindsight! It's an award-winning weekly podcast that takes big ideas about civic life and democracy and turns them into action items for you and me. Learn more at www.futurehindsight.com/

Jacob grabs Chris Branch, senior writer at The Athletic and author of The Pulse, to talk about the World Cup as geopolitics. They cover Trump's red-card intervention and the Balogun controversy, England-Argentina and the ghost of the Falklands, why sports and politics were never actually separate, and why China and India can barely qualify while Cape Verde runs wild. Plus: whether soccer ever truly takes hold in America, and why it might take a billionaire treating the sport like a Carnegie library to make it happen.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Welcome and Guest Intro(01:41) - In-Person Catch-Up(02:40) - Meet Chris Branch(03:28) - Why This World Cup Hit Different(05:09) - Sports Writing Meets Politics(07:11) - Fan Culture and National Rivalries(10:24) - FIFA Corruption and New Fans(14:03) - Picking a Premier League Team(15:16) - Can Soccer Catch On in America(17:49) - Why MLS Struggles(21:55) - Pay-to-Play and US Development(29:22) - Women's Soccer and Global Gaps(33:47) - Trump, FIFA, and the Balogun Saga(35:29) - Red Card Controversy(36:25) - Iran Match Bad Karma(37:37) - Play Anyway Debate(42:22) - Sports as Common Ground(44:37) - Stars Politics and Fandom(56:10) - Money Youth Sports Future(01:04:53) - Closing Stories and Wrap--Referenced in the Show:The Pulse - https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/newsletters/the-pulse/--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today's volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--Mentioned in this episode:Check out Marketplace Morning Report!If you're enjoying the Jacob Shapiro Podcast, make sure to check out Marketplace's Morning Report! The team gives you the economy without the anxiety, in the amount of time it takes to brew a cup of coffee. Learn more at: www.marketplace.org/shows/marketplace-morning-reportCheck out Marketplace Morning Report!If you're enjoying the Jacob Shapiro Podcast, make sure to check out Marketplace's Morning Report! The team gives you the economy without the anxiety, in the amount of time it takes to brew a cup of coffee. Learn more at: www.marketplace.org/shows/marketplace-morning-report

Jacob sits down with J Mintzmyer of Value Investors Edge for a shipping deep-dive (but of course it's a geopolitics lesson in disguise). Mintzmyer argues the industry has barely changed in eleven years, most of the efficiency gains, double hulls, eco-designed vessels, LNG boil-off fixes, were locked in over a decade ago, leaving only regulation to move the needle. The two dig into why the US lost shipbuilding to Japan, Korea, and now China, how the Jones Act complicates the picture, and why America's real shot at relevance lies in owning and financing vessels, not building them.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Welcome and Setup(01:20) - Meet J Mintzmyer(02:38) - Shipping for Dummies(06:24) - How Shipping Demand Works(08:30) - Has Shipping Changed(16:48) - US Shipbuilding Decline(26:14) - Tonnage Tax Loophole(27:15) - Make US Shipping Competitive(27:54) - Finance Incentives Not Sanctions(28:56) - Why US Shipbuilding Lags(31:31) - China Shipbuilding Dominance(44:36) - Automation And Future Innovation--Referenced in the Show:Twitter: https://x.com/mintzmyerWebsite: www.vieresearch.comBox book: https://www.amazon.com/Box-Shipping-Container-Smaller-Economy/dp/0691170819Chinese automated shipyard (video): https://youtu.be/RXr03aRF_p8?si=1cjIBZaFeTTqhutD--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today's volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--Mentioned in this episode:Check out Marketplace Morning Report!If you're enjoying the Jacob Shapiro Podcast, make sure to check out Marketplace's Morning Report! The team gives you the economy without the anxiety, in the amount of time it takes to brew a cup of coffee. Learn more at: www.marketplace.org/shows/marketplace-morning-report

Crosspost! Shaun Haney and Jacob use the global football tournament as a springboard to discuss nationalism, international institutions, and the role sport plays in bringing people together, while acknowledging that politics inevitably follows major global events.Shapiro says that international sporting events can provide valuable insight into broader geopolitical trends while also serving as a rare source of optimism.--Referenced in the Show:Frontlines: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wckZi7rZU3U--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today's volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--

Hamidreza Azizi joins the show once more to ask a deceptively simple question: is the war over? Azizi argues the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) is deliberately vague and fully reversible - sanctions relief hinges on a phone call, the $300 billion investment fund is unfunded, and both Iran and the US are already renegotiating its terms through actions, not words. They dig into Iran's Strait of Hormuz fee gambit, China's calculated non-intervention, Turkey's regional rise, and 80% inflation battering Iran domestically. Azizi's verdict: Iran emerges more resilient, not more powerful, and... you'll have to listen to get the rest!--Timestamps:(00:00) - Welcome and Guest Intro(00:49) - Book Timing and Relevance(03:49) - Is the War Over(05:23) - Iranian View of Ongoing War(11:23) - MOU Favorable to Iran(12:56) - MOU Details and Reversibility(18:48) - Strait of Hormuz Fee Debate(21:05) - Iran Strategy and Leverage Clock(27:57) - Regional Order in Transition(35:46) - China and Great Power Dynamics(42:46) - Turkey and Israel Threat Perception(46:10) - Iran Domestic Fallout and 60 Day Outlook--Referenced in the Show:Hamidreza's Substack - https://www.irananalytica.org/Hamidreza on X - https://x.com/HamidRezaAz--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today's volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--

Jacob Shapiro sits down with Victor Hernandez, a Mexican national security analyst, to stress-test his own optimism about Mexico. Hernandez argues the army now runs eight ministries' budgets, can't out-spy the cartels, and may face limited US drone strikes Mexico has no way to resist. El Mencho's death looks more like an ambush than a victory. Nearshoring pencils out on a spreadsheet - until corruption and parallel taxation eat the margin. A bracing case for what happens if Jacob's wrong.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro and Framing(01:29) - Meet Victor Hernandez(02:44) - Victor Background and Career(05:00) - Army Trust and Corruption(07:38) - Blowback and Patriotism(10:25) - Morena and Military Power(15:29) - Future of Militarization(17:24) - Army vs Cartels Capabilities(22:26) - Will the US Intervene(26:26) - Drone Strikes Fallout(29:32) - Cuba Sequencing and Allies(33:04) - Trade Dependence and Diversification(39:45) - El Mencho and Cartel Fragmentation(44:14) - Investing and Nearshoring Risks(51:05) - What If Victor Is Wrong(54:24) - Closing and Outro--Referenced in the Show:Victor Hernandez - https://www.linkedin.com/in/v%C3%ADctor-hern%C3%A1ndez-979002b0?ILEES - https://www.ilees.mx/ --Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today's volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--

You might not realize it, but Jacob also appears on a few other podcasts regularly! Jacob is a regular guest RealAgriculture's Frontlines podcast, hosted by Shaun Hane. Shaun and Jacob discuss geopolitics from an agricultural lens, exploring how the world reacts to the extremely fine-tuned world of ag. Many analysts expected a prolonged disruption in the Strait to trigger severe economic fallout. Instead, oil prices have risen, inflation pressures have intensified, and shortages are emerging in some regions, yet markets remain resilient. Jacob argues that oil's influence on the broader economy is no longer as dominant as it was during previous energy crises. Strategic reserves, alternative supply routes, and new infrastructure projects have helped cushion the impact, even as consumers face higher fuel and food costs. At the same time, he points to inflation as the political challenge that could ultimately shape U.S. policy. While employment numbers remain relatively strong, Jacob contends that household finances are under increasing pressure.--Referenced in the Show:Frontlines- https://www.realagriculture.com/2026/06/from-hormuz-to-ai-competing-forces-are-driving-the-global-economy-frontlines-june-2026/--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today's volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--

Florida produced 242 million boxes of oranges in 2003. This year, the USDA is forecasting 12 million... a decline of more than 95% in less than a generation. Jacob sits down with journalist Alexander Sammon, who wrote a definitive autopsy of the Florida orange industry, to understand how disease, globalization, and real estate swallowed one of America's most iconic crops. Scratch the surface of orange juice, and you find geopolitics, government mandates, and the full sweep of 20th century American economic history.Alex's article below!--Timestamps:(00:00) - Welcome and Schedule Update(00:26) - Meet Alex Salmon(01:18) - Orange Juice Meets Geopolitics(02:48) - Florida Orange Collapse(04:27) - Disease and Perfect Storm(06:0) -6 Can Science Save Citrus(10:37) - Farmers Pivot to Real Estate(14:28) - Nostalgia for Old Florida(16:58) - Brazil Takes the Baton(24:25) - Oranges Through History(26:50) - Canonizing a Classic(27:39) - Oranges Arrive in Florida(28:52) - Railroads and Early Boom(30:02) - War Creates Orange Juice(30:35) - Geopolitics in Your Glass(34:02) - Advertising Makes a Staple(35:49) - Greening and Structural Cracks(37:26) - Globalization Hollowing Out(39:23) - Wall Street Consolidation(42:54) - Juice Backlash and Millennials(45:16) - Future of Oranges Worldwide(49:51) - Next Project and Farewell--Referenced in the Show:Who Killed the Florida Orange? - https://slate.com/business/2026/04/florida-state-orange-food-houses-real-estate.html--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today's volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--

Ioan Grillo has spent decades on the ground in Mexico watching the cartels evolve, and his assessment is sobering. Violence has shifted form more than it's receded. Governments change rhetoric, not reality. The U.S. is more involved than anyone admits. And Sheinbaum is threading a needle between Washington's pressure and Mexican sovereignty. A conversation you won't find anywhere else.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Welcome and Guest Intro(01:33) - Name Pronunciation(02:46) - How Cartels Evolved(03:35) - Violence Plateau Explained(08:04) - Homicide Stats vs Reality(10:01) - Sheinbaum Security Strategy(14:28) - US Role and Intervention(15:54) - Trump Era Cartel Priority(20:51) - Sovereignty and Mixed Views(24:38) - Extraditions and Double Talk(27:11) - US Role In Mexico(28:23) - CIA Tactics Debate(29:11) - Bukele Model Questions(30:22) - Why Bukele Rose(34:15) - Crackdown Tradeoffs(37:53) - Mexico Geography Limits(39:36) - What Tough Looks Like(43:19) - Journalism Under Threat(47:49) - Staying Sane Reporting(53:01) - Closing And Links--Referenced in the Show:--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today's volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--

Our favorite military analyst, Sim Tack, returns to the pod to assess three different conflicts reshaping global security. In Ukraine, territorial gains are tactical, not strategic; Russian economic endurance remains the real variable. In Iran, a degraded military has reached a stalemate the U.S. and Israel cannot break without regime change. And in Mali, a jihadist advance is threatening to create a new territorial caliphate... with Russia's failed security guarantee quietly accelerating the collapse.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Welcome(01:08) - Sim is Back(01:56) - Is the World Overwhelming?(04:23) - AI Briefings and Limits(06:10) - Drones and War Evolution(09:44) - Top Conflicts to Watch(11:59) - Ukraine Strikes and Oil Leverage(13:53) - Reality Check on Initiative(18:26) - Zelensky Endgame Options(23:28) - Russia Staying Power and Economy(26:15) - NATO Threat Question(26:46) - Russia Threat Timeline(27:53) - Can Russia Fight NATO(29:30) - Satellite Buildup Reality(30:23) - Europe Rearms Narrative(35:11) - Asymmetric Threat Debate(37:06) - Drones Cyber Article Five(41:11) - US Munitions Bottleneck(47:39) - Iran Stalemate Logic(50:27) - How Neutered Is Iran(53:46) - Mali Jihadist Surge(57:17) - Closing Thanks Outro--Sim's Work:AllSource Analysis: https://allsourceanalysis.com/work/sim-tack/Linkedin: https://be.linkedin.com/in/sim-tack-081b313b--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today's volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--

Jacob sits down for a fantastic conversation with author and analyst Dror Poleg to explore how AI is reshaping work, value, and the economy. They unpack why AI is better understood as a medium than a tool, what the shift from tangible to intangible assets means for investors, and why the dynamics of show business now govern every industry - from oil to politics.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introooo(01:27) - Twitter and the Text Commons(04:16) - AI Metaphors Tool or Medium(07:58) - How LLMs Actually Think(16:04) - Analog to Digital Generations(17:39) - Work Capital and Interchangeability(23:39) - OnlyFans Economy and Discovery(28:18) - Nonlinear Economy Tangible vs Intangible(35:45) - Is This Universal China Too(37:43) - China Fears Volatility(38:11) - COVID Strategy Contrast(40:39) - Censorship Arms Race(42:05) - AI Slips Control(43:09) - Energy Limits Return(44:52) - Automation And Work(47:22) - All Swans Black(52:36) - Politics Need New Story(57:50) - Cities For New Economy(01:03:18) - Warp Speed Government(01:05:00) - Israel Modern War Paradox(01:12:18) - Closing And Credits--Referenced in the Show:Dror Poleg's Site and piece referenced - https://www.drorpoleg.com/forty-in-quarantine/--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today's volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--

Peru has had seven presidents in nine years, homicides have nearly doubled, and extortion is up sixfold - and yet the country just tried to buy $3.5 billion worth of F-16s. Elohim Monard returns to diagnose a political crisis that doubles as a case study in great-power failure. From "gross diplomacy" on social media to a runoff framed as "cancer versus HIV," Peru is caught between Washington and Beijing with no strategy of its own.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Welcome and Guest Intro(00:37) - Gross Diplomacy Sparks(01:51) - US Diplomatic Decline(05:17) - Trump Centralized Foreign Policy(07:08) - Peru F-16 Deal Controversy(12:28) - Why F-16s Make No Sense(17:13) - Peru Budget and Military Inertia(21:43) - Peru Election and Crime Surge(24:32) - Fujimori Question Setup(24:58) - Fujimori Paradox(26:38) - Instability Origins(28:32) - Democracy Tradeoffs(30:43) - Sanchez and Castillo(33:51) - Cleavages Over Policy(36:57) - US China Reality Check(39:03) - Beyond Great Powers(45:07) - Inequality Fuels Populism(49:52) - No Offers From Washington(51:28) - Latin America Leadership Void(56:44) - Closing and Signoff--Referenced in the Show:--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today's volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--

Josh Linville,VP of Fertilizer at StoneX, chats with Jacob about the global fertilizer crisis triggered by disruption to the Strait of Hormuz. They cover why the Middle East dominates fertilizer supply, why the US can't easily fill the gap, which crops and regions are most at risk, and what farmers should do right now to protect themselves.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Welcome (01:15) - War Context and Stakes(02:22) - Fertilizer 101 Big Three(03:36) - Why Hormuz Matters(04:55) - Middle East Gas Advantage(06:12) - Why US Lags Production(07:56) - Capacity Crunch Explained(10:47) - China and State Strategy(13:11) - Build Plants or Reserve(16:25) - Investment Reality Check(19:00) - Food Security Imperative(21:18) - Seasonality and Timing(23:36) - Global Impacts and Grain(25:33) - Fertilizer Booking Gaps(26:44) - Survey Skepticism(28:59) - Global Risk Hotspots(30:43) - Yield and Protein Impacts(32:35) - Fertilizer Supercycles(36:05) - New Normal or Oversupply(39:47) - Pinch Points Russia(41:38) - Beyond the Big Three(43:19) - Organic Alternatives Limits(46:33) - Carbon Premium Reality(48:32) - Key Takeaways Farmers(50:42) - Wrap Up and Credits--Referenced in the Show:--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today's volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--

Josef Schachter - President of Schachter Energy - walks us through what global oil markets looked like the day before bombs started falling, and what the math looks like now. Prices were already heading higher, the conflict accelerated the timeline, and the U.S. can't drill its way out of a closed Strait of Hormuz. Jacob and Josef also get into Canada's structural advantage, why markets are still surprisingly calm, and what a prolonged conflict means for the global economy. Tune in for more :)--Timestamps:(00:00) - Welcome (00:36) - Prewar Oil Market Setup(02:24) - War Impact and Price Paths(05:15) - Ceasefire Doubts and Escalation(09:02) - Markets vs Reality Gap(10:32) - Supply Now Product Later(12:47) - Trump Strategy and Nuclear Endgame(16:03) - Drill Baby Drill Reality Check(18:53) - Can Americas Output Replace Gulf(20:57) - Energy Hegemony and China Angle(25:18) - Allies Drift and US Quandary(27:18) - Biofuels Reality Check(29:38) - War Changes Everything(31:13) - New Supply Hunt Worldwide(32:59) - Policy Reversals for Security(39:31) - Pipelines LNG and Takeaway(40:38) - Global Plays Beyond Canada(42:36) - 2030s Demand vs Efficiency(46:19) - Portfolio Positioning in Energy(49:48) - Risks That Break the Thesis(51:39) - Closing and Sign Off--Referenced in the Show:Josef's Site - https://schachterenergyreport.ca/ --Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today's volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--

Kabir Taneja, Executive Director of the Observer Research Foundation Middle East, joins the podcast for an Indian perspective on the US-Israel conflict with Iran. Jacob and Kabir discuss how ordinary Indians are feeling the economic anxiety of potential energy shortages, India's long-standing policy of non-alignment in the Middle East, its deep ties with Gulf states, and why any lasting regional resolution will ultimately require Iran's security buy-in.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Welcome(00:57) - Global Economy Worries(01:40) - Meet Kabir Taneja(02:02) - ORF Middle East Explained(03:26) - Why Dubai Matters(04:14) - India View on War(06:46) - Economic Fallout at Home(08:56) - Politics and Nonalignment(11:40) - Cooking Gas Stove Detour(12:51) - What Can India Do(13:55) - Energy Dependence Reality(15:01) - Iran Ties and JCPOA(18:25) - Trump Exit and Trust(24:58) - China Perception and Border(27:12) - Galwan Shifts Public Mood(28:36) - Russia As China Counterweight(29:28) - China Benefits From Gulf War(30:51) - Pakistan Diplomatic Surge(32:46) - Islamabad Reenters Washington(34:54) - Pakistan Security Leverage(37:21) - Asymmetric War Lessons(39:23) - India Pakistan Conventional Focus(42:10) - Iranian Frigate And US India Ties(44:56) - India Best Case Strait Outcome(49:28) - Gulf Partnerships And Multipolarity(54:48) - Closing Thanks And Signoff--Referenced in the Show:Kabir Taneja - https://www.orfonline.org/people-expert/kabir-taneja--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today's volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--

Chase Taylor of Pine Cone Macro rejoins the pod for a candid conversation about the Iran War and its ripple effects on global markets, military strategy, and U.S. geopolitical standing. Jacob and Chase discuss escalation dynamics in the Strait of Hormuz, the psychology of both leaderships, and what a realistic off-ramp might look like. They close out on the topic of U.S. competitiveness - covering energy policy, education investment, human capital, and the looming threat of nuclear proliferation.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Welcome(01:21) - War Anxiety and Cash Question(03:26) - Leadership Narratives and Intel Gaps(06:33) -Iran Capabilities and Escalation(09:55) - Hormuz Toll Booth Scenarios(15:35) - Markets Underpricing the Shock(21:51) - When Crisis Feels Real(27:23) - Defensive Positioning and Themes(32:08) - China Gains From Energy Shift(33:32) - China Soft Power Play(34:16) - Why Sugar Spikes(35:55) - Sugar Timing And Refinery(37:02) - What To Do With 401k(40:25) - Argentina Energy Bet(44:19) - Pre War Market Themes(47:17) - Middle East New Equilibrium(50:17) - Winners Losers And Energy(55:28) - US Dutch Disease Debate(01:02:55) - Human Capital And Nukes01:06:08 Closing Thanks And Outro--Referenced in the Show:Pine Cone Macro - https://www.pineconemacro.com/ --Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today's volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--

Jacob sits down with Laurie McFarlane, co-director of Future Economy Scotland, for a (non-Gulf War related, finally) conversation about what makes Scotland one of the more fascinating geopolitical underdogs around. The two dig into Scotland's constrained economic agency within the UK, the squandered promise of North Sea oil, the renewable energy transition, and why Scotland - like much of Europe - risks sleepwalking into managed decline.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Welcome And Setup(01:30) - Why Scotland Now(02:35) - Future Economy Scotland Origins(05:54) - Early Impact And Strategy(07:55) - Devolution Limits And Agency(13:11) - North Sea Oil And Missed Fund(15:24) - Managed Decline And Renewables(20:26) - Who Benefits From Wind(22:04) - UK Pricing And Regional Bills(24:16) - Decoupling Gas And Next Steps(27:03) - Green Transition Jobs(29:26) - Avoiding Deindustrialization(31:20) - Searching For Analogies(34:19) - Ireland And Independence(36:51) - Renewables Leverage Limits(39:18) - Water As Strategic Asset(40:57) - Brexit And Global Power(43:47) - Nukes And Security Debate(46:41) -Future Growth Model(49:37) - Sharing Growth Fairly(52:35) - Europe Coordination Vision(53:56) - Closing--Referenced in the Show:--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today's volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--

Solo analysis from Jacob! Some reflection on being wrong about the Third Gulf War. Jacob outlines why he thought the war wouldn't happen - interceptor shortages, domestic politics, inflation risk, and explains what's shaken his analytical framework: the killing of moderate Iranian leaders, the appointment of a hardline Supreme Leader, the U.S. confusing firepower for strategy, and, of course, allies refusing to cooperate. --Timestamps:(00:27) - Why No US Attack(02:15) - Iran Geography Leverage(02:56) - US Politics Inflation Risk(05:19) - Noninterventionist Contradiction(06:26) - War Starts Timebox Logic(07:50) - Leadership Decapitation Fallout(08:43) - Hardliners Take Over(10:02) - Firepower Not Strategy(11:32) - Ground Troops And Oil Moves(12:43) - Allies China And Shipping(15:06) - South Pars Escalation(16:45) - Iran Presses Advantage(17:36) - Is The Framework Broken(18:17) - Foxes Hedgehogs Forecasting(19:38) - White House Meme Strategy(21:37) - Grim Outlook Food Shock(23:08) - Wrap Up And Subscribe--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today's volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--

Jacob Shapiro sits down with journalist Jody Ray, who just returned from on-the-ground reporting in Ethiopia and Eritrea. This convo is a gateway into one of the most underreported conflicts brewing today - a potential war over Red Sea access with echoes of Cold War rivalries, ethnic fracture lines, and a region that's been through hell once already. If you enjoyed the conversation, check out more of Jody's work below!--Timestamps:(01:22) - Meet Jodi in Nairobi(01:38) - Why Ethiopia Matters(03:20) - Ethiopia Basics(05:44) - Cold War Backstory(07:13) - From Empire to Derg(10:28) - TPLF Rule and Abiy Rise(12:37) - How Tigray War Started(14:55) - War Aftermath and Red Sea(16:46) - Why Tigray Didn't Take Addis(18:48) - Eritrea Explained(23:17) - Regional Powers and the Dam(25:38) - Little Dubai in Addis(27:24) - Addis Boom And Displacement(28:47) - Capital City Versus Hinterlands(30:32) - Nightlife And Image Management(31:21) - Tigray Trip And War Signs(32:28) - Life In Mekelle After War(35:12) - Drone Strikes And Media Crackdown(37:30) - Fighters And Civilian Resolve(40:38) - Plea To The International Community(42:26) - Ethiopia Fragmentation And Armed Regions(45:22) - Horn Powder Keg And Twitter Diplomacy(48:15) - Why Ethiopia Matters To Him(51:58) - Travel Origins And Chinese Factory Clue(53:59) - Closing Thoughts And Thanks--Referenced in the Show:Jody's Work - https://jodyray.journoportfolio.com/--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today's volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--

Jacob sets down the grand strategy for a gripping personal story, catching up with his high school friend Avi Swerdlow, who landed in Israel the day before the new Gulf War erupted. Avi recounts waking to sirens, sheltering with his mother, and navigating a closed airspace in a circuitous scramble to get home - a reminder that geopolitics is always personal. Note: If you know anyone in a Gulf or Middle Eastern state who has had to scramble in a similar way, or is experiencing the war on the ground, please connect us! We would love to feature their story. --Timestamps:(00:00) - Hello (01:10) - Meet Avi Swerdlow(01:58) - Siren Wake Up Call(02:57) - Did You See It Coming(05:53) - Flights Canceled Fast(07:57) - Airbnb Safe Room Help(10:29) - Embassy Alerts and STEP(12:29) - Planning Land Escape(14:07) - State Dept Evac Call(16:30) - Airport Chaos and Shelter(22:12) - Boarding DHS Evac Flight(24:08) - Arrival in Athens(24:17) - Athens to Rome Reset(25:25) - Historic Moment Reflections(26:28) - Evacuation Costs and Embassies(27:30) - Inside the DHS Plane(31:26) - Landing in Athens and Relief(34:00) - Fellow Passengers Georgia Detour(35:04) - Would You Go Back(36:27) - Work and Family Back Home(38:06) - Egypt Plan and Risk Tradeoffs(39:46) - Other Routes and Final Wrap--Referenced in the Show:--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today's volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--

Iran expert Hamidreza Azizi joins Jacob Shapiro to break down the issues posed by Iran's blockage of the Strait of Hormuz. Azizi explains Iran's phased strategy: take out US radar systems first, then threaten energy infrastructure. He also unpacks who's actually running Tehran right now, why China and Russia are quietly helping, and why no optimistic scenario exists for Iran's long-term future.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Welcome and Guest Intro(00:41) - War Week Context(01:56) - Reza Returns(02:50) - How Long Can It Last(08:02) - Damage and Endgames(13:36) - Why Hit Gulf States(18:15) - Energy and Strait Pressure(21:39) - Can Iran Hit America(24:12) - Cyber Limits(26:26) - Who Runs Iran Now(34:34) - Iran Power Centers(37:31) - Ceasefire Off Ramp(39:40) - Keeping US Out(42:08) - China Strait Calculus(45:27) - Russia China Intel Aid(48:41) - Proxy War Limits(57:09) - Iranian Public Mood(01:04:24) - One Year Outlook(01:06:25) - Closing Thanks--Referenced in the Show:--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today's volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--

Geopolitical analyst Kamran Bokhari joins Jacob to break down the US/Israeli joint strike on Iran. Is this regime change, or coercion? Bokhari argues the limited force deployment points to a "Venezuela model" - targeting IRGC hardliners while preserving moderate military figures to negotiate a nuclear deal. But... Has the moment for regime collapse has already passed? The two also explore the regional fallout: Kurdish mobilization, Pakistan-Afghanistan tensions, and the risk of Iranian state collapse cascading across Eurasia.--Timestamps:(00:43) - Iran Response And Targets(01:08) - Decapitation And Cyber Angle(01:51) - US Firepower And Scale(04:38) - Is This Regime Change(07:06) - Why Not Full Invasion(11:08) - Endgame And Negotiations(12:36) - Backchannels And Limits(16:05) - Advice To Trump(19:45) - Regional Spillover Risks(25:23) - What Happens Next(30:06) - Wrap Up And Thanks--Referenced in the Show:--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today's volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--

North Dakota State Climatologist Daryl Ritcheson joins the show for his annual check-in about the climate (our fourth???) - He and Jacob revisit last year's forecast misses and hits before diving into 2026. They explore the transition from La Niña to El Niño, implications for U.S. agriculture, hurricane risk in the Gulf, and crop prospects in South America and the Black Sea. The discussion then widens into a candid debate over sea level rise, extreme weather trends, and climate data interpretation... Highlighting disagreements, long-term cycles, and the importance of questioning assumptions in an era of clickbait and politicized climate narratives.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Welcome(01:40) - Forecast Scorecard(04:02) - Federal cuts & the National Weather Service(06:52) - AI in meteorology(09:18) - Weather hype, clickbait, and short public memory(13:17) - 2026: La Niña fading, El Niño on deck(14:39) - Atlantic hurricane outlook for 2026 (Gulf Coast focus)(19:32) - Heartland & farm belt forecast(22:30) - West vs. Rockies(24:30) - Global Ag weather(27:44) - Black Sea outlook(29:34) - 1.5°C Threshold: What the Recent Record Heat Means(34:26) - Satellites vs. Tide Gauges(35:48) - Glaciers, Natural Cycles & Past Warm Periods(37:25) - Extreme Weather Claims(40:09) - Tornado Trends & the Problem of Short Data Windows(42:41) - What Actually Keeps Daryl Up at Night(44:50) - Depoliticizing Climate Talk(49:12) - India & the Monsoon(52:22) - Trusted Data Sources, Raw Data, and “Weather Rhymes”--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today's volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--

Louis-Vincent Gave joins The Jacob Shapiro Podcast to unpack a world that looks chaotic... but may be quietly reordering itself. From a surprising thaw in U.S.–China relations to a potential renaissance in Latin America and Canada, Louis argues that today's volatility is accelerating deeper structural shifts. He explains why Europe remains fragmented, why energy prices could derail everything, and why investors may be thinking about risk all wrong.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Welcome & Introducing Louis Gave (Gavekal Research)(02:43) - Liberation Day Shocks(05:02) - China De‑Westernizing Supply Chains After 2018(07:40) - Trump as Accelerant(09:31) - Why a US–China Cold War Is Economically Suicidal(11:50) - Drones Change War(13:47) - The ‘Swamp' Factor(18:27) - Defense Supply Chains & Rare Earth Dependence(21:19) - Xi's Priorities(25:47) - Xi's Security, PLA Purges, and Corruption Crackdowns(31:17) - Xi's Army Purge(32:37) - US-China Rapprochement(34:36) - Who Wins if the Cold War Ends?(35:58) - Why Latin America Looks Like the Breakout Trade (40:24) - Mexico Risks(42:24) - Bullish Canada(44:37) - Does USMCA Survive? (47:31) - No Army, No Foreign Policy(51:00) - Can Europe Rebuild Real Military Power?(53:27) - Ukraine Endgame(56:23) - What Keeps Louis Up at Night(01:00:32) - Bitcoin vs Diversification(01:01:30) - Closing Thoughts--Referenced in the Show:Louis-Vincent Gave - https://research.gavekal.com/author/louis-vincent-gave/--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today's volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--

Something extraordinary just happened in Japan... but of course no one is paying attention!A ruling party written off as tired and scandal-plagued didn't just win - they delivered a generational landslide. Taaka Ichi, Japan's first female Prime Minister, led her Liberal Democrats into a victory so complete that the opposition straight up imploded (see: winning 2/3 of Parliament). At the center of the dust cloud stands a leader arguing Japan must harden itself for a dangerous world: rebuild industry, rearm, and rely on no one but itself. This isn't incremental politics. It's a bet on national revival. If it works, Japan will change the global balance. If it fails, the country may well collapse. --Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction (01:03) - The Significance of the Recent Japanese Election(03:11) - Analyzing the LDP's Historic Victory(07:37) - The Collapse of the Opposition(13:39) - Public Opinion and Political Dynamics(27:52) - Constraints and Challenges for Taaka Ichi(35:13) - Taaka Ichi's Vision for Japan(36:39) - Japan's National Crisis and Self-Reliance(38:38) - Economic and Defense Strategies(40:46) - Comparing Policies: Omics vs. Maji 2.0(45:51) - Challenges and Constraints(57:49) - Energy and Industrial Policies(01:04:53) - Geopolitical Dynamics and China's Influence(01:11:16) - Conclusion and Future Outlook--Referenced in the Show:Tobias substack - https://observingjapan.substack.com/Tobias book - https://www.amazon.com/Iconoclast-Shinzo-Abe-New-Japan/dp/1787383105--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today's volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--

Hamidreza Azizi joins the pod for an emergency episode on the current state of Iran amidst escalating tensions with the United States. Azizi examines the potential for conflict between the two and and offers insights into Iran's internal politics, the role of the IRGC, and the possible repercussions of a U.S. attack. --Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction(01:46) - Iran's Domestic Situation(02:44) - US-Iran Tensions and Military Movements(04:08) - Iran's Response and Internal Dynamics(09:41) - Potential Scenarios and Outcomes(28:31) - Iran's Military Capabilities and Strategies(41:16) - Regional Implications and Global Reactions(54:33) - Conclusion and Final Thoughts--Referenced in the Show:Hamidreza's Substack - https://www.irananalytica.org/Middle East Council - https://mecouncil.org/experts_members/hamidreza-azizi/--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today's volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--

Jacob sits down with agricultural economist Dr. David Kohl to unpack what a brutal downturn in farm profitability reveals about globalization, capital concentration, labor shortages, and long-term economic resilience. The two touch on tariffs, debt, and the limits of export-led growth, and then the conversation widens to examine how technology, demographics, and financial fragility are reshaping both rural America and the national economy. --Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction (00:56) - Discussion on US Ag Economy(02:17) - Challenges and Opportunities in Agriculture(07:09) - Land Values and Institutional Investments(12:24) - Generational Transition in Farming(18:02) - Export Markets vs. Domestic Focus(23:03) - Future Trends and Strategic Insights(25:55) - Venture Capital in Agriculture(28:09) - Economic Outlook for 2026(29:21) - The K-Shaped Economy Explained(31:39) - Impact of AI and Job Cuts(34:55) - Global Economic Concerns(41:05) - Technological Advancements in Farming(49:39) - Financial Literacy and Life Skills(51:32) - Closing Remarks and Future Outlook--Referenced in the Show:Dave Kohl: https://www.farmprogress.com/author/david-kohl--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today's volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--

Andrey Sizov, a Black Sea agricultural markets, joins the pod to talk about about why the Russia-Ukraine war has disrupted global grain trade far less than expected - and why that may be changing. Jacob and Sizov examine recent attacks on shipping, the fragile balance keeping Black Sea exports moving, and how escalation could ripple through wheat, corn, energy markets, and global food security. Of course, they also tie in Iran, China's commodity buying, and what geopolitical risk really means for global agriculture.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(00:24) - Black Sea Geopolitics and Agricultural Markets(01:09) - Technical Issues and Podcast Logistics(01:45) - Start of the Interview with Andre Coff(03:27) - Black Sea's Importance in Global Trade(04:32) - Market Reactions and Historical Context(06:09) - Recent Developments and Speculations(13:52) - Prospects for a Deal and Future Outlook(17:07) - Impact on U.S. Agriculture and Market Sentiments(23:00) - Turkey's Role in the Black Sea Region(24:29) - Turkey's Role in the Black Sea(26:22) - Turkey's Wheat Imports and Black Sea Stability(28:22) - Sunflower Market Insights(30:06) - Iran's Political and Economic Challenges(33:07) - US and Israeli Involvement in Iran(38:55) - China's Agricultural Trade with the US(43:13) - Global Grains Trade and Self-Sufficiency(50:02) - Conclusion and Future Outlook--Referenced in the Show:Andrey Sizov's Reports: https://sizov.report/--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today's volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--

Economist Mike Konczal joins the show to unpack the escalating pressure campaign against the Federal Reserve, new inflation data, and what all of this means for the U.S. economy. Jacob and Mike discuss whether Trump's confrontation with Jerome Powell is genuinely dangerous, how tariffs and immigration policy are shaping prices and growth, and why the labor market looks weaker beneath the surface. Mike is more cautiously optimistic than we expected - but the downside risks remain real. --Timestamps:(01:26) - Fed and Executive Branch Dynamics(05:49) - Economic Consequences and Market Reactions(09:03) - Global Perspective on US Economic Policies(14:09) - Impact of Tariffs and Trade Policies(15:12) - Future of Fed Independence and Supreme Court Cases(17:06) - Economic Theories and Real-World Implications(27:01) - Economic Data Post-Government Shutdown(27:14) - Inflation Insights and Core Prices(28:02) - Trump's Approval Ratings and Economic Perception(29:03) - Unemployment Rate and Labor Market Analysis(30:48) - Federal Reserve's Stance on Inflation(31:34) - Impact of Tariffs on Inflation(33:13) - Trump's Influence on Federal Reserve Policies(41:00) - Economic Predictions for Midterms(45:43) - China's Trade Surplus and Global Impact(51:32) - Conclusion and Final Thoughts--Referenced in the Show:--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today's volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--

Shock, instability, climate stress, financial panic, political rupture: the question isn't who avoids disruption, but who absorbs it and keeps moving. Jacob invites on Parag Khanna of AlphaGeo to wrestle with a harder metric than dominance or growth - resilience. What actually allows states, systems, and societies to adapt when the rules keep changing? Shapiro and Khanna explore the events driving this week's headlines (Venezuela, Iran, Greenland) and dive into the underlying systems that actually determine outcomes: resilience, adaptation, and the capacity to recover when shocks pile up. --Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction (02:10) - Geopolitical Risks and Resilience(03:10) - Historical Geopolitics and Current Events(05:11) - Challenges in Latin America(12:47) - Asia's Geopolitical Landscape(20:41) - Technological Impact on Geopolitics(34:18) - Africa's Geopolitical Future(38:38) - Conclusion and Final Thoughts--Referenced in the Show:AlphaGeo: https://alphageo.ai/Henley index: https://tinyurl.com/henleyindexParag's Site: http://paragkhanna.com/--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today's volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--

Venezuela has become the flashpoint for a new era of American hard power - not just a regime change, but a raw assertion of dominance over the "backyard." Elohim Monard graces the pod with his presence once more as the U.S. treats a sovereign nation like a criminal organization to secure global oil markets, and the ideological fractures across Latin America deepen. Is this the beginning of a peaceful transition or the birth of ten years of chaos? This moment forces a reckoning: what happens when stability is traded for extraction, when ideology gives way to brute pragmatism, and when Latin America's future is shaped less by its people than by who controls the valves?--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(01:12) - Discussing Recent Events in Venezuela(02:59) - US Involvement and Imperialism(06:15) - Historical Context and Comparisons(08:58) - Reactions from Latin American Leaders(14:30) - Potential Future Scenarios(24:56) - Cuba's Situation and US Strategy(27:29) - Media Critique and Final Thoughts(28:46) - Stephen Miller's Perspective on Venezuela(32:36) - US Strategy in Latin America(34:00) - Future of US Dominance in the Western Hemisphere(37:14) - Impact of Chinese Investments(44:25) - Potential Chaos in Venezuela(54:38) - Implications for Peru(58:03) - Final Thoughts and Upcoming Discussions--Referenced in the Show:--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today's volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--

Jacob takes on the U.S. seizure of Nicolás Maduro and what it reveals about American power, imperial strategy, and hemispheric priorities. This was less about China or narco-trafficking and more of than a blunt assertion of control over resources and geography. Venezuela is a test case, possibly a rehearsal, for deeper U.S. intervention in the Western Hemisphere, especially Cuba, and a sign of Washington consolidating power closer to home as its global leverage erodes. --Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction and Emergency Episode Announcement(00:49) - Background on US-Venezuela Relations(01:44) - The US Attack on Venezuela(02:55) - Implications for Venezuela and the Region(04:16) - Historical Context and US Imperialism(05:51) - Forecasting Future Geopolitical Moves(06:33) - Cuba as the Next Geopolitical Target(15:50) - China's Influence in Latin America(18:39) - Conclusion and Final Thoughts--Subscribe to our Substack to hear more of Jacob's thoughts on the US's capture of Maduro and takeover of Venezuela.Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap--The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today's volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--

What if the money in your pocket wasn't a tool for freedom, but a mechanism for control? Inflation, surveillance, and financial exclusion actively shape who can save, speak, or participate in the global economy. Alex Gladstein joins the show to examine money as a human-rights issue, exploring how new digital tools are being used in places where traditional financial systems fail or are weaponized. Alex reframes money as a human-rights issue - tracing how digital currencies are reshaping power at the margins: enabling dissidents, protecting savings, and creating escape hatches from broken systems. It's not about speculation or hype... it's about sovereignty, repression, and what freedom actually looks like in a digitized global economy.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction(00:17) - Bitcoin as Freedom Money(01:46) - The Need for Freedom Money(04:04) - Global Financial Repression(10:12) - Bitcoin's Resilience and Privacy(20:00) - Case Studies and Real-World Impact(23:03) - Bitcoin and the Future of Nation States(25:01) - The Cost of War and National Debt(25:36) - The Role of Banks in Government Spending(27:06) - Bitcoin's Potential to Empower People(27:36) - Dictators vs. Bitcoin(28:51) - The Rise of Stablecoins(29:43) - Bitcoin vs. Altcoins(38:13) - Ethereum's Flaws(40:39) - Bitcoin's Impact on Oppressed Nations(44:43) - The Future of Bitcoin and Dictatorships--Referenced in the Show:Alex Gladstein: https://alexgladstein.com/Freedom Money Essay – https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/articles/why-bitcoin-is-freedom-money/--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today's volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--

Elohim Monard joins The Jacob Shapiro Podcast to discuss Latin America. A massive geopolitical integration in LatAm is quietly underway, fueled by a "Trumpian" rightward shift sweeping from the Southern Cone to the Rio Grande. As traditional alliances fracture, a new "practical ideology" is emerging to unite the hemisphere through hard-fist security tactics and aggressive economic pragmatism. But beneath this surface-level alignment lies a volatile paradox: a burgeoning "low-intensity war" targeting non-state actors as a pretext for permanent emergency. From the weaponization of fentanyl to state-sanctioned privateers, the line between regional stability and calculated chaos is vanishing. Latin America has suddenly returned to the center of the global board (contrary to major predictions) and the struggle for its future is no longer a civil war... but a high-stakes play for total hemispheric control.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction(00:52) - Current Geopolitical Climate in Latin America(02:18) - Upcoming Elections and Political Shifts(03:36) - The Rise of Right-Wing Politics(07:20) - Brazil's Political Landscape and Lula's Role(11:37) - Economic Dependencies and China's Influence(23:01) - Strategic Infrastructure and Future Developments(27:59) - US Investment in South America(28:36) - Venezuela and Letters of Marque(30:43) - US-Venezuela Tensions Escalate(32:28) - Trump's Foreign Policy Strategy(37:16) - Potential War Against Non-State Actors(46:22) - Future of US-Venezuela Relations(50:46) - Conclusion--Referenced in the Show:Conversando de Pol ítica: https://www.conversandodepolitica.com/--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today's volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--

Power gets loud when it's insecure. Strategy becomes theater. And ideology sneaks in wearing policy jargon. The White House's newest U.S. National Security Strategy claims realism while quietly demanding dominance, preaching restraint while laying groundwork for escalation. Civilizational panic collides with imperial muscle, producing a document that wants everything, everywhere, all at once. Van Jackson, Professor of International Relations at Victoria University of Wellington, sits down with Jacob Shapiro to chat about how culture war thinking seeps into grand strategy, why “prioritization” turns into mission creep, and what this blueprint signals for allies, adversaries, and a world already stretched thin. If this is restraint, buckle up :)--Timestamps:00:00 Introduction and Guest Welcome01:40 Understanding National Security Strategy02:23 Critique of the Current Administration's Strategy07:22 Historical Context and Comparisons13:14 Primitive Accumulation and Geopolitics16:47 Latin American Policy and Imperialism25:33 Military Strategy and Global Implications29:47 China as a Pacing Threat30:47 Misconceptions in Military Strategy31:52 Potential Conflicts in Latin America34:23 US Military Intervention in Mexico35:38 Challenges of Addressing Drug Cartels41:56 Hegemonic Decline and National Security48:24 Global Reactions to US Strategy53:58 Brazil's Role in Latin America56:53 Concluding Thoughts--Referenced in the Show:Van Jackson - https://people.wgtn.ac.nz/van.jacksonNational Security Strategy 2025 - https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/2025-National-Security-Strategy.pdfNSS (2002) - https://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/nsc/nss/2002/NSC-68 (1950) - https://history.state.gov/milestones/1945-1952/NSC68--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com --Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today's volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--

Book episode! What happens when a policy meant to shape a nation reaches into the most intimate corners of a family's life? Journalist Barbara Demick'sDaughters of the Bamboo Grove becomes a prism for a China where babies vanish, families fracture, and two identical lives grow up worlds apart. One twin speaks Mandarin, the other English. One hides in a bamboo grove; the other lands in Texas. Demick joins The Jacob Shapiro Show to explore the lives shaped, and misshaped, by China's restrictive one-child policy. Shapiro and Demick probe the emotional aftershocks of separation, the uneasy collision of two cultures when twins are reunited across continents, and the moral ambiguity of institutions that believed they were doing the right thing.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction and Guest Introduction(00:46) - Discussing the Book: Daughters of the Bamboo Grove(02:04) - Barbara's Journey and Discoveries in China(05:15) - The Impact of China's One-Child Policy(11:28) - Adoption and Family Planning in China(21:21) - Cultural and Demographic Shifts in China(25:35) - Cultural Juxtaposition of Twins(26:35) - Impact of COVID on US-China Relations(27:35) - Adoption and Diplomatic Relations(28:31) - Challenges for Chinese and American Families(30:57) - Adoptees as Cultural Ambassadors(32:02) - Religious Influences in Adoption(34:42) - Economic Comparisons Between Families(39:18) - Psychological Trauma of Adoptees(45:13) -Author's Career and Future Projects(50:27) - Upcoming Book on Berlin--Referenced in the Show:Barbara Demick - https://www.barbarademick.com/Daughters of the Bamboo Grove - https://www.barbarademick.com/book/daughters-of-the-bamboo-grove/--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com --Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today's volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--

As global finance strains under shifting power structures, author and fintech thinker Emmanuel Daniel, founder of TAB Global, argues that the real disruption isn't technological - it's personal. This episode explores finance as a geopolitical arena where identity, data, and sovereignty reshape who holds leverage. What happens when individuals, not institutions, become the organizing unit of the monetary system? And how does that rewire cross-border power, trust, and risk? A provocative look at the future architecture of money.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction (00:15) - Emmanuel Daniel's Book and Key Insights(02:44) - The Ice Metaphor in Finance(03:22) - The Evolution of Finance and Personalization(10:11) - Impact of Financialization on the Economy(25:31) - Cryptocurrencies and the Future of Finance(30:59) - The Spectrum of Tokenization(31:31) - Information as the Ultimate Token(32:44) - The Digital Nature of Money(33:40) - The Durability of Bitcoin and Ethereum(38:06) - The Role of AI and Open Source in Tokenization(42:23) - The Future of National Debt and Financialization(48:37) - The Impact of Financialization on Global Economies(58:48) - The Role of the US in Financialization(01:00:56) - The Tension Between Personalization and Intermediaries(01:03:38) - Concluding Thoughts and Future Implications--Referenced in the Show:Emmanuel's Website: https://www.emmanueldaniel.com/biography/TAB Global - https://tab.global/The Great Transition - https://www.emmanueldaniel.com/the-great-transition/--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com --Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today's volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--

Tariffs promise protection but unleash deeper shocks - reshaping demand, distorting prices, and testing the resilience of an already-strained economic system. Rob Larity and Jacob unpack the widening gap between political narratives and material reality, probing how erratic policy, volatile markets, and institutional guardrails collide. They ask whether the U.S. is entering a new era of economic fragility, what signals truly matter beneath the noise, and how global outliers like Chile reveal the stakes of navigating a fractured, multipolar world.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction (01:46) - Discussion on San Francisco Fed Paper(05:14) - Historical Context of Tariffs(14:11) - Mechanics and Impact of Tariffs(18:26) - Political and Economic Realities(26:22) - Market Reactions and Volatility(30:03) - Election Aftermath and Voter Priorities(30:59) - Moderation and Economic Focus in Politics(31:58) - Scott Bessent and the Trump Administration(36:43) - US Institutions and Economic Policies(40:37) - Chile's Political Landscape and Economic Potential(48:29) - Global Energy Dynamics and Future Outlook(01:01:08) - Conclusion and Final Thoughts--Referenced in the Show:--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com --Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today's volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--

China's rise is often framed as a geopolitical contest, but Kaiser Y Kuo, host of the Sinica Podcast, pushes us to confront something deeper: what if China's transformation exposes the West's blind spots about modernity, power, and progress itself? Jacob and Kaiser wrestle with uncomfortable parallels between America's Gilded Age and China's present, the myths we cling to about innovation and identity, and the way global narratives harden into self-soothing fictions. It's a challenge to rethink both China - and ourselves.--Referenced in the Show:Kaiser's "Great Reckoning" Article - https://www.theideasletter.org/essay/the-great-reckoning/Sinica Podcast - https://www.sinicapodcast.com/podcastThe China Project - https://thechinaproject.com/series/sinica/--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction (01:31) - Starting the Conversation with Kaiser Kuo(02:44) - Discussing 'The Great Reckoning' Essay(04:27) - China's Learning from the West(06:43) - Comparing Historical Growth: US and China(09:46) - Role of the State in China's Growth(12:01) - Innovation and Perceptions of China(20:09) - Environmental Consciousness in China(22:59) - China's Global Ambitions and Comparisons to the US(28:17) - The Current US-China Relationship(31:58) - Shifting American Perceptions of China(32:33) - Chinese Public Opinion on the U.S.(34:00) - G2 vs. Multipolar World(36:16) - Marxism in Modern China(40:56) - China's Economic Strategies(45:14) - Xi Jinping's Centralized Power(01:01:36) - China's Cultural Influence--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com --Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today's volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--

Aging quietly shapes everything - our economies, our politics, our families, and the horizon of what nations can become. Jacob and longevity expert Dylan Livingston, founder of the Alliance for Longevity Initiatives (A4LI), take a dive into the emerging science that treats aging not as fate, but as a solvable biological problem with staggering geopolitical consequences. The two explore how extending healthy human life could transform productivity, rebalance global power, upend healthcare economics, and challenge long-held assumptions about decline. At its core is a question: what happens when longevity becomes a public policy frontier, not a personal fantasy?--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction(00:21) - The Importance of Longevity(02:48) - Personal Journey into Longevity(04:48) - Historical Quest for Immortality(10:02) - Modern Longevity Science(13:13) - Challenges and Societal Implications(19:53) - A4LI's Mission and Achievements(27:38) - Policy and Future Goals(32:51) - FDA Guidance and Incentives for Therapeutics(34:01) - Supply Chain Concerns and American Manufacturing(35:32) - Political Perspectives on Longevity(37:13) - Bipartisan Efforts and Advocacy(41:55) - Challenges and Opportunities in Longevity Research(52:28) - Economic and Demographic Implications of Longevity(01:01:45) - Closing Remarks and Future Conversations--Referenced in the Show:A4LI - https://a4li.org/ --Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com --Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today's volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--

Technological revolutions rarely unfold the way we imagine. From the steam engine to AI, each wave reshapes who creates value - and who gets left behind. What if artificial intelligence isn't a revolution at all, but a late-stage innovation like shipping containers - transforming efficiency without changing the underlying system? Jerry Neuman joins the Jacob Shapiro Podcast and questions whether openness still drives progress, whether innovation can survive without risk, and why the next great leap forward might not be digital, but something we haven't yet learned to see.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction(01:17) - Jerry Newman's Background and Career Journey(07:40) - The Evolution of Technology and Job Markets(12:52) - Impact of AI on Future Jobs(17:14) - Geopolitics and Technological Innovation(26:28 Comparing Historical and Modern Technological Revolutions(29:48) - Debating the Future of Innovation in Open Societies(31:35) - The Rise and Skepticism of Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency(35:11) - AI and the Next Technological Revolution(40:53) - The Impact of Containerization on Global Trade(52:17) - Speculating on Future Technological Innovations(57:18) - The Importance of Nurturing Innovation--Referenced in the Show:AI Will Not Make You Rich - https://joincolossus.com/article/ai-will-not-make-you-rich/--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com --Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today's volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--

As the Supreme Court takes up one of the most consequential trade cases in decades, former Biden administration official and Yale-trained lawyer Peter Harrell joins Jacob L. for a real-time breakdown of what's at stake. Together, they cut through the legal jargon to reveal how a 1977 emergency powers statute became the foundation for Donald Trump's sweeping tariff regime—and why the Court's decision could reshape U.S. trade, markets, and global power. A crash course in law, economics, and political brinkmanship.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction(00:45) - Supreme Court and Tariff Legality(05:09) - Understanding IEPA and Its Implications(15:30) - Potential Outcomes and Impacts(22:24) - US-Mexico-Canada Trade Relations(26:27) - Mexico's Trade Challenges(26:35) - Trump Administration's Legal Battles(27:49) - Supreme Court's Role in Tariff Decisions(28:20) - Foreign Governments' Reactions(30:36) - Impact of US Elections on Trade Policy(34:46) - Historical Context of Tariffs(38:25) - Trump's Trade Deals with Cambodia and Malaysia(43:24) - Future of US Tariff Policy(48:39) - Implications for Small and Medium-Sized Businesses--Referenced in the Show:Peter Harrell - https://carnegieendowment.org/people/peter-harrell?lang=en Twitter - https://x.com/petereharrell--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com --Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today's volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--

South Korea stands at the crossroads of global power - caught between China, the United States, Japan, and its unpredictable neighbor to the north. Jacob Shapiro and Professor Jeffrey Robertson unpack how a nation long described as “the shrimp among whales” has learned to navigate the world's toughest geopolitical waters. From shifting alliances and nuclear restraint to the economic promise of unification, this episode reveals how Korea's pragmatism may shape the future of Asia.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction(01:45) - Professor Jeff Robinson(02:08) - Jeff's Background and Experience in South Korea(02:55) - South Korea's Rapid Changes and Current Events(04:54) - US-South Korea Relations and Historical Context(12:43) - South Korea's Domestic Politics and Policy(16:51) - South Korea-Japan Relations(19:59) - South Korea's Perception of China(24:05) - South Korea's Stance on Taiwan and Nuclear Deterrent(25:48) - Nuclear Deterrence on the Korean Peninsula(27:40) - North Korea's Current Status and International Relations(29:10) - Prospects of Korean Peninsula Unification(37:57) - South Korea's Economic and Demographic Challenges(41:56) - Australia-South Korea Relations(48:27) - Impact of US-South Korea Relations on Education and Future Prospects(50:42) - Conclusion and Final Thoughts--Referenced in the Show:Jeffrey Robinson's Website: https://junotane.com/--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com --Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today's volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

When U.S. aircraft carriers appear off Venezuela's coast, it's not just saber-rattling - it's a mirror held up to a century of empire. Jacob and LatAm analyst Elohim Monard dissect what's really driving Washington's renewed aggression in the Caribbean, from Trump and Rubio's internal power struggle - to the shadow of China, the lure of oil, and the global rise of hard-line politics. Together, they trace the fault lines connecting Venezuela, Argentina, Peru, and the United States... and ask whether a new “right-wing international” is already reshaping the Americas.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction(00:29) - Halloween Anecdote and Personal Updates(01:16) - Coca-Cola and American Empire(02:53) - Venezuela and US Foreign Policy(04:35) - US Military Movements and Implications(10:53) - Internal US Politics and Foreign Policy(20:37) - Historical Context and Neoconservatism(35:06) - US Strategy in Latin America(35:41) - China's Influence and Russia's Role(36:43) - US Military Presence and Economic Interests(42:22) - Historical Context and Legal Justifications(44:25) - Emerging Right-Wing Politics in Latin America(48:07) - Comparative Analysis of US and Latin American Politics(56:02) - Future Implications and Concluding Thoughts--Referenced in the Show:Conversando de Política - https://conversandodepolitica.com--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com --Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today's volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

When a Brazilian payment system threatens U.S. credit-card profits, it exposes a deeper fracture in the global economy: sovereignty versus rent-seeking, innovation versus control. Jacob and Rob trace the fight over PIX from Brasília to Washington and beyond -into currency wars, trade tantrums, and the strange new politics of the Western Hemisphere. What does it mean when the world's “rules-based order” starts punishing countries for building better systems?--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction and Podcast Overview(00:50) - Halloween in Paris vs. New Orleans(01:40) - Current Events and Volatility(02:36) - Introduction to Pix Payment System(03:25) - How Pix Works and Its Impact(05:58) - US Investigation into Pix(08:35) - Geopolitical Implications and US-Brazil Relations(13:30) - Privacy Concerns and Central Bank Control(17:23) - Credit Card Companies vs. Pix(22:25) - Brazil's Political Landscape and Economic Outlook(28:08) - US-Argentina Relations and Economic Policies(30:25) - Discussing Currency Strategies(31:16) - Argentina's Currency Swap and US Involvement(32:49) - US Banks and Argentina's Financial Crisis(35:55) - US Military Buildup in the Caribbean(36:48) - US-Colombia Relations and Regional Tensions(42:22) - Impact of Cocaine Production on Latin America(48:35) - Currency Discipline and Global Financial Stability(54:27) - The Future of Global Currencies(01:00:19) - Conclusion and Final Thoughts--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com --Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today's volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Japan rewired its politics: a power shift, a woman at the helm, and a minority government forced to bargain for every vote. What follows when high approval collides with hard math - aging demographics, weak yen, and defense budgets racing past old taboos? Analyst Tobias Harris, author of The Iconoclast and writer of Observing Japan, joins The Jacob Shapiro Podcast to unpack the country's most surprising election in years - one that produced its first female prime minister and a government held together by negotiation. Expect sharper debates on security, energy, food, and China ties, with South Korea and Washington watching. Is this real generational change or a new face for old factions? The stakes: whether Japan can act before events act on it.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction (00:25) - Challenges in Understanding Japanese Politics(01:05) - Recent Japanese Election Overview(02:00) - Unexpected Election Results and Political Shifts(05:45) - Historical Context and Political Fragmentation(07:29) - Farewell to Shigeru Ishiba(12:31) - Rise of Japan's First Female Prime Minister(22:57) - Public Perception and Future Prospects(27:46) - Understanding Political Longevity(28:30) - Policy Expectations and Challenges(32:49) - Economic and Fiscal Policies(37:39) - Foreign Policy and Relations with China(43:15) - Japan-South Korea Relations(48:55) - Japan-US Relations and Defense Strategy(55:45) - Concluding Thoughts on Leadership--Referenced in the Show:Tobais' website: https://observingjapan.com/Observing Japan Substack: https://substack.com/@observingjapan--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com --Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today's volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Gold prices are soaring, private equity is unraveling, and data centers have become the next speculative frontier. Beneath all of it lies a simple question: what happens when faith in liquidity, stability, and infinite growth begins to fray? From central banks hoarding bullion to insurers gambling on AI infrastructure, the same story unfolds—risk disguised as resilience. And somewhere between coffee tariffs and capital flows, you can glimpse the new shape of a global economy learning to live without certainty.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction(01:03) - Catch-Up and Current Events(02:09) - Gold Market Analysis(08:40) - Global Currency Dynamics(17:42) - US Gold Reserves and Fiscal Policy(25:24) - Podcast Wrap-Up and Listener Engagement(26:25) - Urgent Financial News: Private Equity and Insurance Capital(27:57) - Private Equity's Desperation for Retail Investors(28:33) - The Volatility Spiral and Liquidity Crisis(31:43) - Private Equity's Leverage on Captive Insurance(32:48) - The Data Center Investment Bubble(41:23) - AI Demand and Data Center Overcapacity(48:52) - The Future of Energy Prices and AI(50:45) - Rising Coffee Prices and Tariff Impacts(57:19) - The Global Trade System and Commodity Markets(01:00:05) - Conclusion: The State of Global Markets--Referenced in the Show:--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com --Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today's volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

What if money could make you freer instead of more dependent? Matt McClintock joins the pod to dive into Bitcoin's evolution from digital experiment to geopolitical force - a technology challenging governments, redefining sovereignty, and reshaping how value moves across the world. Matt and Jacob explore what “freedom money” really means, why personal sovereignty now collides with state power, and how the struggle between fiat and crypto reveals the future of economics, trust, and control in a multipolar world.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction and Podcast Overview(00:20) - Addressing Listener Concerns(02:08) - Engaging with the Community(02:49) - Welcoming Back Matt McClintock(03:44) - Bitcoin: A Journey of Discovery(05:53) - Understanding Bitcoin's Evolution(09:41) - Bitcoin's Global Significance(12:59) - Bitcoin's Unique Characteristics(24:28) - Bitcoin as Freedom Money(29:23) - Bitcoin and Economic Freedom(29:56) - Bitcoin's Role in Oppressive Regimes(30:45) - Government Reactions to Bitcoin(32:35) - Personal Security and Bitcoin(34:45) - Bitcoin and Legal Concerns(44:40) - Bitcoin's Sovereignty and Legal Framework(55:30) - Bitcoin's Unique Position in the Financial World(01:00:34) - The Future of Bitcoin and Fiat(01:01:38) - Closing Thoughts and Reflections--Referenced in the Show:Link to White Paper: https://bespokegroup.io/sovereigntyparadox/Link to Matt's Substack: https://mattmcclintock.substack.com/--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com --Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today's volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Jacob Shapiro is joined by Matt Pines, Executive Director of the Bitcoin Policy Institute, to discuss the accelerating convergence of Bitcoin, AI, geopolitics, and energy. Pines argues that technological change is happening faster than existing frameworks can manage, pushing once-fringe ideas into mainstream policy debates. They explore how AI and Bitcoin are straining U.S. infrastructure, particularly the electrical grid, and what this means for national security and economic stability. The discussion also considers the rise of “techno-feudal” elites, political backlash risks, and whether America can maintain an edge against China's state-driven infrastructure build-out. Pines closes with reflections on Bitcoin's rapid rise as both a strategic asset and a test of U.S. policy adaptability.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction(01:33) - The Acceleration of Change(07:16) - Energy Consumption and Infrastructure Challenges(15:24) - Political and Economic Implications(21:35) - US vs China: Technological Race(27:26) - Future of Sovereignty and Power(33:11) - The Future of AI and Techno-Surveillance Capitalism(35:01) - Economic Implications of Universal Basic Income(35:35) - Sci-Fi Futures and Technological Transformations(36:27) - Bitcoin's Role in a Techno-Feudal World(41:25) - Political and Social Reactions to Technological Change(42:58) - The Rapid Evolution of AI and Its Impacts(53:14) - Bitcoin Policy and National Interest(58:38) - Geopolitical and Monetary Challenges Ahead(01:02:45) - Concluding Thoughts and Future Outlook--Referenced in the Show:Bitcoin Policy Institute - https://www.btcpolicy.org--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com --Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today's volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp