Cognitive Dissidents

Jacob Shapiro is joined by Akshar Patel from The Emissary to unpack the rapidly escalating crisis between India and Pakistan after a deadly terrorist attack in Kashmir. They cover what happened, why this attack is different, and why India's suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty is such a big geopolitical shift. Akshar breaks down Pakistan's internal fractures, India's military limitations, and how water is becoming a pressure point in South Asia. This isn't just saber-rattling... it's a slow burn with existential stakes.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(00:21) - Current Tensions Between India and Pakistan(01:10) - Podcast Format and Guest Perspective(02:04) - Discussion on Recent Terrorist Attack(09:18) - Historical Context and Analysis(19:34) - Indian Government's Response and Military Trust Issues(25:23) - Potential Motivations and Future Implications(28:24) - Personal Anecdote and Broader Context(29:01) - A High Schooler's Question on Chechnya(29:33) - Why Does India Want Kashmir?(30:28) - Historical Context of Kashmir Conflict(32:55) - Civilizational and Secular Significance of Kashmir(36:36) - Geopolitical Importance of Water(38:25) - Potential Military Conflicts and Strategies(48:04) - Global Diplomatic Dynamics(56:31) - Conclusion and Final Thoughts--Referenced in the Show:--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapCI Site: cognitive.investmentsSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com --Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today's volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients' material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Chase Taylor of Pine Cone Macro is back to break down the mess that is U.S. trade policy and what it means for markets. We talk about whether Trump's tariffs are pushing us toward recession, why China's fiscal discipline might actually be a strength, and where smart investors should be looking outside the U.S. Chase walks through opportunities in Greece, Brazil, and Chile, and we take a step back to talk about how capital flows and political risk are reshaping global investing. Plus, we nerd out about frontier markets—and yes, a little bit about NBA playoffs too.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(00:32) - NBA Playoffs and Initial Discussion(01:18) - Tariff Vice and Economic Concerns(02:07) - Impact of Tariffs on US Economy(07:34) - Recession Fears and Employment Data(09:58) - Trump's Trade Policies and Market Reactions(17:38) - China's Economic Strategies and Stimulus(28:29) - Investment Opportunities in Europe(30:00) - Investment Opportunities in Europe and Brazil(30:51) - Challenges and Risks in Brazil and Turkey(32:19) - Overseas Investing: Macro Tailwinds and Policy(33:32) - Turnaround Stories in Emerging Markets(34:44) - The Potential of Frontier Markets(38:08) - Geopolitical Insights and North Korea(45:34) - Agricultural Commodities and Market Trends(49:43) - The Dollar's Impact on Trade and Investments(52:03) - NBA Trades and the Cleveland Cavaliers(55:46) - Podcast Conclusion and Contact Information--Referenced: Pine Cone Macro: https://www.pineconemacro.com/--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com --Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today's volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

In this wide-ranging episode, Jacob and Rob check in on markets, discuss the issue of Federal Reserve independence, and somehow end up talking about the future of the Catholic Church. We are large – we contain multitudes!--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introooo(02:55) - Market Trends and Economic Indicators(04:15) - Freight Data and Economic Concerns(07:42) - Historical Context: Market Reactions(16:44) - The Fed's Role and Independence(26:40) - Trump's Economic Approval Ratings(27:29) - Debating Economic vs Cultural Factors(29:45) - Hypothetical Scenarios for Jerome Powell(34:01) - Global Political Shifts and Far-Right Movements(37:38) - The Future of the Catholic Church(45:48) - Resurgence of Religion Among Young People(50:04) - Conclusion and Final Thoughts--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapCI Site: cognitive.investmentsSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com --Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today's volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients' material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

American Airlines can't keep Jacob down – he makes time to connect with Rob Larity to do an episode on the market chaos of the week. --Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction and Travel Woes(01:09) - Ranting About American Airlines(02:21) - Catching Up with Rob(03:06) - Market Volatility and Tariffs(04:34) - Financial Crisis vs. Current Situation(07:42) - Uncertainty in the Market(08:48) - Impact of Tariffs and Trade War(13:11) - Bond Yields and Inflation Expectations(20:20) - Dollar Weakness and Global Capital(22:46) - Historical Context and Globalization(26:24) - Trump's Desire for a Deal with China(27:29) - US-China Economic Interdependence(31:03) - Challenges in International Investment(33:42) - Inflation and Economic Uncertainty(37:16) - Corporate Responses to Tariffs(42:54) - Impact on Small and Medium Businesses(47:23) - Geopolitical and Economic Outlook(52:19) - Closing Remarks and Future Plans--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapCI Site: cognitive.investmentsSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com --Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today's volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients' material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Notice: This is the last episode that we'll be cross-posting on the JShap Show Channel!For details on this episode and further off the wall updates, follow Geopolitical Cousins wherever you get your podcasts!!Helpful Link - https://feeds.captivate.fm/geopolitical-cousins/This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Vance hosted Jacob on his podcast – so only fair that Jacob should return the favor! Vance and Jacob talk about early returns on Trump administration policies for U.S. and Canadian farmers. They discuss the virtues and pitfalls of Bitcoin, and close with some heartfelt thoughts on insights Vance has derived from interviewing hundreds of people about the most meaningful aspects of their life. --Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(00:01) – Response to U.S. politics(11:45) – Biofuels(14:32) – Debt/land prices(18:04) – RFK Jr, eggs, making waves(30:42) – Will USDA have power over processing?(32:30) – Bitcoin(47:50) – Making the meaning they lack--Referenced in the Show:Link to first Jacob/Vance episode: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/geopolitical-shifts-from-nato-to-canada-the-world-is/id1463771076?i=1000693451758Vance's website: https://www.vancecrowe.com/--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapCI Site: cognitive.investmentsSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com --Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today's volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients' material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Jacob and Marko convene an emergency episode to discuss Liberation Day. Afterwards, they speak to fellow cousin Matt Gertken about President Trump's comments that he might serve a third presidential term. --Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction and Episode Overview(01:46) - Discussion on Tariffs and Trade Deficit(02:58) - Reciprocal Tariffs and Economic Reactions(04:56) - Market Reactions and Negotiation Strategies(07:02) - Uncertainty and Global Trade Dynamics(07:45) - Historical Context and Strategic Analysis(10:15) - Geopolitical Implications and Future Scenarios(13:15) - US Fiscal Policy and Global Trade War(30:57) - Potential Outcomes and Congressional Actions(35:20) - Biden's Missed Opportunity with Trade(36:04) - Challenges in US Trade Negotiations(37:44) - Inflation and Tariffs Debate(40:19) - Recession Concerns and Economic Adjustments(41:11) - Tariffs and Their Impact on American Manufacturing(43:09) - China's Military Exercises and Taiwan(44:30) - Debating China's Intentions with Taiwan(52:03) - Part 2 with Matt Gertken (54:48) - Trump's Third Term Speculation(01:06:44) - Reflecting on Beginnings and Career Paths(01:07:52) - The Impact of Leadership on Markets(01:10:52) - Comparing Political Systems: US, China, and Russia(01:13:11) - The Future of American Democracy(01:17:19) - Media Manipulation and Political Spectacle(01:20:50) - The Role of the Supreme Court(01:32:57) - European Politics and the Far Right(01:42:31) - Concluding Thoughts on Geopolitics--Referenced in the Show:Note from Matt on reference he made in podcast: Cato of Utica is associated with Geo Washington. He committed suicide when Caesar came to power - But it was Cato the ELDER who would retreat to his Sabine farm after various stints in power. https://www.mountvernon.org/library/digitalhistory/digital-encyclopedia/article/cato--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapCI Site: cognitive.investmentsSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com --Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today's volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients' material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podtrac...

We are fighting for our right to live. To exist. To buy products for higher prices than we could have bought them. And should we win the day, the Second of April will no longer be known as an American holiday, but as the day the United States declared in one voice: "We will not go quietly into the night!" We will not vanish without a fight! We're going to live on! We're going to survive! We are going to conquer Greenland! Today, we celebrate our Liberation Day!--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction (02:54) - Trade Policies and Tariffs (05:56) - Impact of Tariffs on Businesses(16:01) - Congressional Role in Tariff Decisions(21:53) - Sanctions vs. Tariffs(28:07) - Shifting Financial Sanctions and Tariffs(29:32) - US-Venezuela Relations: Regime Change and Mixed Signals(31:22) - Trump's Foreign Policy Goals with Russia(32:30) - Impact of Sanctions on US Domestic Politics(37:59) - USMCA Renegotiation and Tariff Strategies(42:44) - Nearshoring Challenges and Critical Minerals(47:33) - Currency Adjustments and Global Trade Dynamics(52:04) - UK's Trade and Foreign Policy Post-Brexit--Referenced in the Show:Link to Rachel's Substack: https://rziemba.substack.com/Link to Peterson report mentioned in podcast: https://www.piie.com/commentary/testimonies/evidence-costs-and-benefits-economic-sanctions--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapCI Site: cognitive.investmentsSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com --Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today's volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients' material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Jacob welcomes Georgi Engelbrecht on to the podcast for the first time to discuss the importance of the Philippines, why it matters, its relationship with China, and the Duterte-Marcos rivalry that is reverberating throughout the democratic world.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction and Guest Introduction(02:22) - Life and Work in the Philippines(04:27) - Geopolitical Importance of the Philippines(05:49) - Historical and Cultural Context of the Philippines(08:56) - Philippines-China Relations and South China Sea Disputes(20:10) - Duterte's Foreign Policy and Its Impact(28:12) - Navigating US-Philippines Relations(28:54) - Economic Ties and Trade Dynamics(29:57) - Strategic Alliances and Regional Security(34:09) - Domestic Challenges and Economic Growth(36:58) - Political Drama and Duterte's ICC Trial(43:26) - Public Perception and Future Implications(52:23) - Concluding Thoughts and Reflections--Referenced in the Show:--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapCI Site: cognitive.investmentsSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com --Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today's volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients' material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Want more details? GO CHECK OUT THE GEOPOLITICAL COUSINS POD HERE: https://geopolitical-cousins.captivate.fm/listenYou can also such look up "Geopolitical Cousins" on your favorite podcast provider. This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Jacob and Rob squeeze in a quick episode to reality-check some of the media narratives out there about an imminent recession, copper prices, and the U.S. dollar. From there, they cast their eyes toward emerging markets, looking at events in Brazil, Indonesia, India, and Turkey, and concluding that things still look good in a multipolar world…as long as you have an appropriate level of risk tolerance. They close with specific thoughts on the Indian market.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(01:20) – Profit recession(13:10) – Copper(16:32) – The direction of the USD(20:34) – Multipolar investing(28:11) – India and Shorting(37:47) – Parisian vibe check--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapCI Site: cognitive.investmentsSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com --Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today's volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients' material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Jacob and Marko run down the most important issues of the week: Will the U.S. go to war with Iran? Why did President Erdogan arrest his top rival? Is Indonesia helping or hurting itself by courting its military? And is Chinese consumption really happening? From there, they turn to the kind of geopolitical sports analysis that only they can offer, drafting teams of 7 for the top geopolitical sports moments in history.Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro (01:00) - Iran(31:00) - Turkey(46:00) – Indonesia(58:00) – China(1:09:00) - Geopolitical Draft--Referenced in the Show:--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapCI Site: cognitive.investmentsSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com --Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today's volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients' material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

NEW FEED: https://geopolitical-cousins.captivate.fm/listenYou can also just look up "Geopolitical Cousins" and it'll come up. We're the only ones. This is it. Welcome to the goat rodeo! The inaugural episode of the Geopolitical Cousins podcast sees Marko and Jacob wax philosophical about net assessments, debate where the Trump administration thinks the world is multipolar, and interrogate what the future of Canada, Europe, and inflation look like in a land of all sticks and no carrots. --Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(01:30) - Approach and Precepts(11:40) – Net Assessments(19:24) – Multipolarity(35:09) – US Exceptionalism, China, and US Fiscal Policy(43:24) - Canada-US Trade Tensions(48:22) – Inflation and pain thresholds(53:07) – Europe's Awakening and Defense Strategies--Referenced in the Show:NEW FEED: https://geopolitical-cousins.captivate.fm/listen--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapCI Site: cognitive.investmentsSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com --Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today's volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients' material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Trump's tariff policy is all over the place - Ton, off, then back on again. Markets don't like uncertainty, and Jacob' sister is even texting him about stocks. China? Barely flinching. Europe? Actually getting its act together, with Germany and Poland leading the charge. Meanwhile, Turkey's making moves, the Kurds are recalibrating, and Iran's back in the mix. --Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(00:40) - Sister Index(05:40) - Impact of US Tariffs and Trade Policies(08:46) - Trump Administration's Policy Analysis(14:38) - Lumber Test Case(24:52) - China's Response to US Tariffs(34:18) - Germany's Defense and Fiscal Policies(35:08) - Poland's Military and Political Moves(36:39) - France's Political Climate(38:02) - Europe's Industrial and Manufacturing Strength(40:48) - EU's Strategic Moves and Turkey Relations(46:42) - Italy's Political Dynamics and Starlink Controversy(48:41) - Poland's Geopolitical Strategy(53:50) - Turkey's Position and Regional Developments(01:05:34 Conclusion and Final Thoughts--Referenced in the Show:FP article link: https://foreignpolicy.com/2025/03/07/europe-heavy-industry-trump-us-competition/--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapCI Site: cognitive.investmentsSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com --Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today's volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients' material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Jacob Shapiro and Cornell Assistant Professor Wendong Zhang discuss tariffs from an objective perspective: Who will they impact? How much? How does that change based on different scenarios? If you are looking to be convinced of whether tariffs are good policy or not, seek another podcast; if what you desire is objective analysis about the potential impact of tariffs both good and bad, you have come to the right place.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(03:33) - Tariffs and Trade Wars(07:54) - Impact of Tariffs on Various Economies(18:33) - Retaliation and Sector-Specific Impacts(27:48) - Global Trade War Scenarios(36:52) - Future of Trade Policies(44:10) - Conclusion --Referenced in the Show:Wendong's Paper - https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=5113925Wendong's Site - https://wendongzhang.weebly.com/--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapCI Site: cognitive.investmentsSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com --Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today's volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients' material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

In this emergency episode of the Jacob Shapiro podcast, Jacob and Marko dissect the unexpected and intense Oval Office meeting between President Trump, Ukraine's President Zelensky, and JD Vance. We delve into the rare earth mineral deal, the broader implications for U.S. foreign policy, and Europe's reaction. The conversation touches on Zelensky's passionate defense of Ukraine's position, the viability of continued U.S. support, and the shifting dynamics in global geopolitics. Watch the full clip of the meeting below->Full link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kEOv4x_FIsc--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(00:42) - Setting the Scene and Marko's Take(08:19) - Historical Context and Jacob's Take(17:04) - Will Russia Turn?(26:38) - Europe's Future in the Balance(29:22) - Does it Matter if Trump Abandons Europe? (34:48) - NATO's Purpose and American Interests(37:06) - Germany's Military History and Current Perception(41:45) - The Multipolar World and American Primacy (Trump and Obama)(50:45) - Zelensky's Leadership and Ukraine's Future--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapCI Site: cognitive.investmentsSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com --Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today's volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients' material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Though operating at less than 100 percent capacity, Jacob and Rob gather to take stock of how markets are reacting to the changes of the last 6 weeks. They find themselves more optimistic about China, Germany, and Europe than others, and warn about signals that suggest President Trump's honeymoon economy period is nearing its end.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(01:15) – Checking in on Mr. Market(12:11) – International Market Over-performance(13:11) – Germany and the Future (22:03) - ...What about the European Union?(23:03) - The EU and India(26:21) - China and the Taiwan Question35:14-end – China, Taiwan etc.--Referenced in the Show:--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapCI Site: cognitive.investmentsSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com --Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today's volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients' material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Jacob welcomes Tomas back onto the podcast in the wake of China's announcement that licences will now be required to export 20 tungsten, tellurium, bismuth, indium and molybdenum-related products to "safeguard national security interests.” Tomas and Jacob talk about how to align government priorities to secure access to materials and the complexities around building capacity in a deglobalizing world where demand for materials has literally never been more intense.--Timestamps:(00:00) – Intro (05:25) – Government priorities(11:12) – China and critical minerals(21:32) – Economics of mineral refining(31:27)– Social license to operate(38:19) – Feasibility of climate friendly goals(43:34) – Aluminum and REE case studies(52:35) – Food for thought--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapCI Site: cognitive.investmentsSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com --Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today's volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients' material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Rob is off this week! Instead, Jacob is rejoined by former colleague and current chief geopolitical strategist at BCA Research Matt Gertken. They recap the week in geopolitics – specifically, the seachange in U.S. foreign policy toward Europe, the potential role of Turkey, and the future of the Black Sea. They close with thoughts on China and the Middle East.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(01:30) – Gravity of the moment(12:30) – Will Russia invade the Baltics?(19:10) – Turkey & the Black Sea(33:00) – Germany(40:25) – China(50:38) – Iran and the Middle East--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapCI Site: cognitive.investmentsSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com --Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today's volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients' material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Jacob and Rob welcome Narath Carlile from MakeTimeFlow to the podcast to talk about human flouring, deep success, and time management. Rob and I could have talked to Narath for even longer than 90 minutes, but in this first episode with Narath, we talk about his background and why he developed the tools he has created to help people invest and protect their time. Narath explains some of the science and context around informatics, human flourishing, and deep success. Rob and Jacob share some of their successes and failures in working with Narath. The group closes by talking about how to protect time in a world that seems determined to steal it from us.--Timestamps:(00:00) – Intro (03:04) - Narath(15:36) – Geography of wellness(28:18) – Informatics and human flourishing(48:28) – Making goals(01:00:04) – Rob and Jacob share experiences(01:18:43) – How to stay positive--Referenced in the Show:Link to MakeTimeFlow: https://www.maketimeflow.com/about/--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapCI Site: cognitive.investmentsSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com --Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today's volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients' material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

A candid discussion with Emma Pennisi on the centers on the ignominious assault on the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and the negative consequences that will follow. Emma Pennisi is a seasoned veteran in the USAID domain is here in a strictly personal capacity. Pennisi articulates her perspectives regarding the potential ramifications of this dismantling on U.S. global influence and strategic interests. --Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro (02:32) - The Origins and Controversies of USAID(05:39) - The Founding Principles of USAID(11:20) - Altruism by Un-Design(24:08) - The Future of Foreign Aid: The End of USAID(28:46) - The Impact of USAID on Global Health and Migration(37:46) - Analysis of Foreign Aid's Long-Term Impact(45:03) - The Impact of USAID Dismantlement(49:23) - The Impact of Direct Aid: A Personal Story--Referenced in the Show:Lewis Lucke episode link: https://getpodcast.com/dk/podcast/covid19-a-fresh-look/44-ambassador-lewis-lucke_b67e81e8a5--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapCI Site: cognitive.investmentsSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com --Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today's volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients' material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Daryl Ritchison joins the pod to discuss the intricate interplay of weather phenomena affecting global climates, with a particular emphasis on the anomalous snowfall witnessed in the Gulf region, a rare event that has sparked significant interest. Jacob and Daryl explore the implications of a weak La Niña on weather patterns, the negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and finish on weather conditions in Europe and India.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro (01:00) - Snow in the gulf(5:30) – Weak La Nina(11:20) – US Forecast 2025(18:40) - Negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation, South America(26:00) – Europe(31:05) – India(33:50) – Drought--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapCI Site: cognitive.investmentsSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com --Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today's volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients' material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Description (replace me)--Timestamps:(00:07) - Intro(00:30) - Monetize the asset side of the balance sheet(17:18) - Bitcoin(25:00) - Debt(32:17) - Macro looks at England, India, Brazil, China(41:40) - Indonesia's Future: Opportunities and Risks(53:42) - Gaza and Analyzing Trump's Negotiation Strategy--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapCI Site: cognitive.investmentsSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com --Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today's volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients' material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Jacob and Marko had planned to pod today anyway…but then Luka got traded, Trump threatened tariffs, and the whole world went generally mad, so they had to go for over an hour and a half! Special announcement for those who make it to the end.--Timestamps:(00:00) - The Evening Special(03:33) - Unexpected Developments(18:14) - The Implications of Tariffs and Negotiations(28:14) - Geopolitical Implications of Tariffs(36:23) - The Multipolar World and America's Strategic Position(49:39) - The Shifting Dynamics of Global Power(01:00:40) - Geopolitical Perspectives on the Ukraine Conflict(01:07:08) - The Future of Ukraine and Russia's Strategy(01:18:41) - The Future of Luka Doncic: Challenges and Opportunities(01:28:06) - Introducing Geopolitical Cousins: A New Podcast--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapCI Site: cognitive.investmentsSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com --Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today's volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients' material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Jacob welcomes the always insightful and provocative Jacek Bartosiak of Strategy&Future onto the show to discuss the Russia-Ukraine war and the evolution of the multipolar geopolitical system. Jacek makes his case that a systemic, global war has already begun – and warns the U.S. what will happen if it indulges in hubris and pushes too hard on President Trump's “America First” rhetoric.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(02:01) - Ukraine Updates - Will Russia negotiate?(11:09) - Will Russia negotiate? (19:00) - The Geopolitical Landscape: Turkey and Germany's Role(28:06) - The U.S. and China's influence in Eurasia(33:36) - The future of Transatlantic relations(39:35) - The future of Europe's role in global politics(44:51) - Peace > War--Referenced in the Show:--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapCI Site: cognitive.investmentsSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com --Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today's volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients' material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Jacob and Rob break down the tech market shake-up caused by Deep Seek, a rising Chinese AI company, and what it means for U.S.-China relations and global AI competition. They dive into Nvidia's stock drop, how AI rivalry is driving investor sentiment, and the shift toward cheaper, decentralized tech. The conversation also explores the economic ties between the U.S., Mexico, and Canada, and how these relationships will shape trade policies. Throughout, they stress the need for a clear-eyed view of market trends and stability in U.S.-Mexico relations amid growing tensions with China.Timestamps:(00:02) - Intro(01:06) - Market Reactions and AI Developments(10:24) - Decentralization and Global Dynamics Within AI(34:30) - Shifting Geopolitical Dynamics and Economic Policies(37:15) - Mexico's Economic Position and Geopolitical Leverage(54:14) - U.S. Foreign Policy and Global Primacy--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapCI Site: cognitive.investmentsSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com --Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today's volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients' material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Jacob discusses several key geopolitical developments, focusing on President Trump's recent inauguration and the implications of his trade policies. Notably, Trump did not immediately raise tariffs on China as anticipated, signaling a potential shift towards negotiation rather than confrontation in international trade. Shapiro also highlights the significance of Secretary of State Marco Rubio's first diplomatic visit to Panama, suggesting it could mark a renewed focus on Latin America. Additionally, he reflects on Ursula von der Leyen's remarks at Davos regarding the complexities of global trade and the need for Europe to establish a more cohesive capital market. Throughout the discussion, Shapiro emphasizes the importance of adaptability and resilience in navigating today's unpredictable geopolitical landscape.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(02:03) - Navigating a New Administration's Trade Policies(10:17) - The Future of European Integration(13:44) - Current Events in the Democratic Republic of Congo(19:21) - Resilience in a Changing World--Referenced in the Show:--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapCI Site: cognitive.investmentsSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com --Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today's volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients' material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Jacob and Rob Larity dive into another weekly update, focusing on the intertwined economies of the United States, Canada, and Mexico. They discuss how the U.S. administration's approach to tariffs and trade could significantly impact these neighboring countries, particularly highlighting Mexico's unique position to leverage its relationship with the U.S. amidst rising tensions. They explore the implications of economic policies, such as the recent jobs report and inflation data, while also dissecting the emotional drivers behind public sentiment on inflation forecasts. The conversation touches upon historical parallels in presidential second terms, underscoring the challenges that may lie ahead for Trump as he navigates a politically divided landscape. --Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(00:46) - Naptime and the Economy(22:35) - The Impact of Tariffs on Canada and Mexico(29:29) - The Economic Landscape of Mexico and Canada(45:35) - The Importance of Maritime Choke Points--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapCI Site: cognitive.investmentsSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com --Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today's volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients' material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Jacob and Elohim Monard dive into the significant shifts in voting patterns among the Latino community in the recent U.S. presidential election, highlighting how Trump's appeal has grown, particularly among younger Latino voters. Jacob and Elo discuss the complexities behind these trends, noting that while Trump secured around 40% of the Latino vote, demographic breakdowns reveal nuanced support, especially among Latino men and younger generations. Elo emphasizes that the Latino population is diverse, and their political alignment is influenced by various factors, including migration stories, geographic locations, and generational differences. The conversation further explores how the political dynamics in the U.S. reflect broader trends in Latin America, suggesting that Trump's brand of populism, or "Trumpismo," may find resonance beyond U.S. borders. The episode concludes with reflections on how these evolving narratives will shape both Latino politics and U.S. relations with Latin America moving forward. --Timestamps:(00:03) - Intro(01:34) - Analyzing the Latino Vote in the 2024 Presidential Election(22:03) - The Changing Dynamics of Latino Political Support(28:01) - The Impact of Social Media on Political Awareness Among Young Latinos(44:23) - The Evolving Identity of Hispanics in America(58:33) - The Rise of Trumpismo and Its Implications(01:03:41) - The Political Landscape: A Shift in Focus--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapCI Site: cognitive.investmentsSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com --Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today's volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients' material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Jacob Shapiro returns from paternity leave, jumping right into a discussion about the surprising implications of Trump's recent comments on military intervention and territorial ambitions. He compares his sixth-grade imagination of invading Qatar to Trump's statements about Greenland and the Gulf of Mexico, exploring the potential geopolitical ripple effects of such rhetoric. The conversation also delves into the economic landscape, particularly how anticipated tariffs under a Trump administration could impact U.S. relations with Canada and Mexico, as well as the broader implications for inflation and the labor market. Additionally, Jacob highlights a noteworthy thaw in Japan-China relations, suggesting that Japan may be recalibrating its foreign policy approach amidst changing global dynamics. Finally, the episode touches on Germany's evolving political climate and the potential for impactful reforms as the country navigates its economic challenges. --Timestamps:Chapters:(00:00) - Intro (we're so back)(03:16) - The Shift in Foreign Policy Perspectives(12:21) - Trump's Foreign Policy(19:34) - Macro-Econ Checkup(25:18) - The Impact of Immigration on Labor Markets and Inflation(35:17) - Shifting Dynamics: US Energy Policy and International Relations(40:54) - Japan's Evolving Foreign Policy(46:47) - The Shifting Political Landscape in Germany(53:11) - The Economic Shift in Germany--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapCI Site: cognitive.investmentsSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com --Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today's volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients' material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Jacob welcomes Kamran Bokhari to the podcast to discuss the shocking collapse of the Assad regime. --Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(05:30) - Who are the Syrian rebels(17:10) – Turkey + Qatar(27:20) – Kurds(37:40) – Iran and the Houthis(43:44) – Saudis, Jordan, Egypt(50:55) - The death of Islamism--Kamran Bokhari - https://newlinesinstitute.org/people/kamran-bokhari/ Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapCI Site: cognitive.investmentsSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients' material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor's particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisorThis podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Jacob checks in from paternity leave to talk to Rob about the latest in markets. From there, they offer some hopefully insightful if slightly disjointed thoughts about France (no deal), Syria (little deal), and South Korea (big deal).--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(01:01) – CI Club(05:30) – US and Global Markets(26:33) - France and Europe(35:30) – Middle East(49:13) – South Korea--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapCI Site: cognitive.investmentsSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients' material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor's particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisorThis podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Jacob and Rob parse some of President-elect Trump's first cabinet picks and what it might mean for economic policy. They compare previous approaches to economic policy and make some provocative comparisons. From there, they turn to China's (underwhelming) “stimulus” announcement last week, and close with some thoughts on Japan's recent election.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro (01:54) - Global Ice Trade(03:56) - Scott Besant's Economic Policies(18:51) - Historical Comparisons and Economic Models(33:21) - The Facade of Dollar Exchange(34:11) - El Salvador's Bitcoin Bet(35:53) - Trump's Cabinet Picks and Policy Clashes(37:08) - China's Economic Strategies and Stimulus(48:23) - Japan's Political Landscape(58:20) - China's Global Investments(59:39) - Concluding Thoughts on Global Dynamics--Referenced in the Show:Link to application for Club CI: https://bit.ly/club-ci--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapCI Site: cognitive.investmentsSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients' material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor's particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisorThis podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

While everyone has been worried about U.S. elections, Japan held elections too – with a result that has upended everything we've known about Japanese politics since 2009. To understand what has changed and what is at stake, Jacob is joined by Japan expert Tobias Harris – they chat about changes in Japan and why underestimating Japan is a bad idea. They also discuss Tobias's recent biography on former Japanese PM Shinzo Abe and his legacy.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(02:33) - Japan 101(08:07) – Japanese disaffection(16:26) – Japanese paralysis(19:17) – Zoom out(23:31) – China(31:00) – ROK/Japan(36:45) – Shinzo Abe--Referenced in the Show:Link to Tobias's book: https://www.amazon.com/Iconoclast-Shinzo-Abe-New-Japan/dp/1787383105--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

While everyone has been worried about U.S. elections, Japan held elections too – with a result that has upended everything we've known about Japanese politics since 2009. To understand what has changed and what is at stake, Jacob is joined by Japan expert Tobias Harris – they chat about changes in Japan and why underestimating Japan is a bad idea. They also discuss Tobias's recent biography on former Japanese PM Shinzo Abe and his legacy.--Timestamps:(00:00) – Intro(02:38) - Japan 101(08:00) – Japanese disaffection(16:36) – Japanes paralysis(19:15) – Zoom out(23:22) – China(30:36) – ROK/Japan(36:32) – Shinzo Abe--Link to Tobias's book: https://www.amazon.com/Iconoclast-Shinzo-Abe-New-Japan/dp/1787383105--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapCI Site: cognitive.investmentsSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients' material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor's particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisorThis podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Jacob and Rob dive into Donald Trump's surprising victory and its potential impact on various sectors, including the economy and the markets. They discuss the prevailing mood in both the US and Europe, highlighting a sense of resignation to Trump's return among many citizens. They explore the market reactions following the election results, noting the volatility in risk assets and the contrasting performance of renewable energy stocks and traditional industries like steel. The conversation also touches on the evolving political landscape in Germany, where the government is facing significant challenges, potentially reshaping Europe's response to US policy under Trump. Throughout the discussion, there is a critical examination of the term "vibes" and its influence on public sentiment and market behavior, raising questions about how perceptions can drive decisions in uncertain times.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(01:16) – Rob reaction(07:45) – Market reaction(30:20) – U.S./China(54:00) – Bitcoin(56:15) – Germany and Europe--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapCI Site: cognitive.investmentsSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients' material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor's particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisorThis podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Jacob and Marko tackle the results of the 2024 election as only they can – in a 2 hr+ episode, they discuss what happened in the election, what Trump's agenda will mean for the economy and markets, how to understand the geopolitical impact…and what his victory might mean for the future of the United States.--Timestamps:00:00 - Intro01:17– Realignment or flash in the pan?15:25 – Domestic agenda40:40 – US-China Relations1:03:40 – Mexico1:13:20 – Ukraine/EU1:27:51 – MENA/Iran1:40:25 – Future of the USA--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapCI Site: cognitive.investmentsSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients' material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor's particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisorThis podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Description (replace me)--Timestamps:00:01 - Intro01:14 - Understanding Crime in Latin America08:30 - Case Study: Guatemala and Its Challenges19:48 - Emerging Trends in Drug Trafficking22:54 - The Narco State Concept Explained31:24 - The Situation in Mexico: Democracy at Risk44:02 - El Salvador's Authoritarian Shift45:52 - Peru's Political Instability and Future Outlook56:03 - Conclusion and Final Thoughts--Referenced in the Show:https://muse.jhu.edu/pub/1/article/937740/pdfhttps://www.journalofdemocracy.org/online-exclusive/can-mexicos-next-president-control-the-military/https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/perus-anti-law-enforcement-turn-is-a-threat-to-regional-stability/--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapCI Site: cognitive.investmentsSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients' material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor's particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisorThis podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

The U.S. election next week. Even those of us that hate following this have no choice but to bite the bullet – so this week, Rob and Jacob make predictions, offer scenarios, and most importantly, try to impart some advice about how to think about what is going to happen in the next 4 years no matter who resides in the White House. --Timestamps:00:00 - Introduction 02:46 - Election Scenarios and Market Implications04:43 - Economic Indicators and Predictions10:06 - Cultural and Political Dynamics15:40 - Market Reactions and Future Projections26:52 - Market Reactions to Potential Trump Victory28:56 - Impact of Fiscal Spending and Inflation30:39 - Equity vs. Bond Markets33:42 - Gold, Bitcoin, and Commodities36:03 - Illegal Gold Mining in Latin America37:31 - Potential Harris Victory and Economic Policies41:55 - Historical Perspectives on Economic Policies46:06 - Investment Strategies Amidst Volatility50:44 - Long-term U.S. Economic Outlook56:56 - Concluding Thoughts and Future Outlook--Referenced in the Show:--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapCI Site: cognitive.investmentsSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients' material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor's particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisorThis podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Jacob welcomes Adam Mastroianni onto the show to discuss his 2023 article in Nature about how it is human nature to assume that the world is always getting worse. This is that rare bit of content that is entirely optimistic – it invites you to consider that our perception of the world is grounded not in what is actually happening in the world but in how we are programmed to think about it. --Timestamps:00:01 - Introduction to Adam Mastriani00:15 - The Illusion of Moral Decline00:31 - Human Psychology and Moral Perception04:38 - Survey Findings on Morality02:03 - Understanding Cooperation and Negativity Bias14:03 - Exploring Political Polarization11:28 - The Role of Social Media in Perception42:26 - Conclusion: Optimism in a Complex World--Referenced in the Show:Link to article: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06137-x--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapCI Site: cognitive.investmentsSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients' material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Chartable - https://chartable.com/privacyPodtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Jacob and Rob take a break from geopolitics and markets to talk about changes at Team CI – why they are moving their asset management activities to The Bespoke Group, how Cognitive Investments is changing… and how you can be a part of it... They unveil the launch of Club CI, a new community designed for like-minded individuals seeking to deepen their understanding of geopolitics, technology, and personal growth. This episode dives into the structural changes within Cognitive Investments, highlighting Jacob's new role as head of geopolitical research at the Bespoke Group and Rob's position as CIO. They discuss the importance of creating a supportive environment for sharing knowledge and fostering creativity among members, emphasizing the dual tiers of membership that cater to both established professionals and emerging talents. The conversation also touches on the integration of productivity tools and methods from experts like Nareth Carlisle, aimed at enhancing personal effectiveness and well-being. As they explore the vision behind Club CI, Jacob and Rob invite listeners to consider how they can engage with this evolving community. --Timestamps:00:00 - Intro00:56 - What is Club CI?03:54 - Transitioning to Bespoke Group09:14 - Building the CI Community10:12 - Understanding Human Capital Trends21:37 - The Vision for Club CI22:09 - The Structure of Club CI29:01 - Member vs. Fellow Tiers Explained55:22 - Closing Thoughts and How to Join--Referenced in the Show:--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapCI Site: cognitive.investmentsSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients' material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor's particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisorThis podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Chartable - https://chartable.com/privacyPodtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Jacob and Rob consider how the world has changed (or hasn't) since the Hamas attack on Israel on Oct 7, 2023. From there, they offer thoughts on innovation in seemingly random countries like Iraq and Chile, before turning to more traditional topics like the U.S. economy. They close with a few bright spots…and a dumpster fire in Pakistan.--Timestamps:00:01 - Intro00:55 - Reflections on October 7, 202303:49 - The Impact of Global Events on Trade09:00 - The Situation in Iraq and Food Self-Sufficiency29:28 - Economic Growth and Innovation in Developing Countries29:38 - Concerns about Ireland's Economic Future51:30 - Analyzing Pakistan's Economic Challenges01:00:35 - Conclusion and Final Thoughts--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapCI Site: cognitive.investmentsSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients' material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor's particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisorThis podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Chartable - https://chartable.com/privacyPodtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Rob and Jacob take a step back from a crazy week to talk about some of the other stories that have been outshone by the explodey events of the week: port strikes in the U.S., the pitfalls of protectionism, Brazilian success, insurance markets, and more. The podcast delves into the significant labor unrest currently affecting ports on the Gulf and East Coast of the United States, marking the first major strike since 1977. Jacob Shapiro and Rob Larity explore the implications of this strike, particularly its potential impact on the supply chain during the crucial holiday shipping season and the broader economic consequences, including inflationary pressures. They draw parallels to past labor movements and discuss the evolving dynamics of labor and production in the U.S., highlighting the challenges posed by automation and protectionist policies. The conversation also touches on the geopolitical context, emphasizing how current events in the Middle East and elsewhere are intertwined with domestic labor issues. Furthermore, they reflect on the inadequacies of insurance coverage in light of recent flooding in North Carolina, illustrating the hidden vulnerabilities within both personal and corporate risk management.--Timestamps:00:01 - Intro00:47 - Port Strikes in the US and Historical Context09:50 - Impact of Port Strikes on Supply Chains39:57 - Insurance and Risk Management Insights53:25 - Brazil's Economic Situation and Credit Ratings54:55 - Conclusion and Final Thoughts--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapCI Site: cognitive.investmentsSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients' material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor's particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisorThis podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Chartable - https://chartable.com/privacyPodtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Jacob welcomes Hamidreza Azizi, Visiting Fellow at German Institute for International and Security Affairs, onto the podcast for a special episode on the escalation of fighting between Iran and Israel. This podcast episode delves into the complex and precarious situation faced by Iran amidst escalating regional tensions and internal political strife. Hamidreza shares his insights on Iran's strategic options, which he characterizes as increasingly grim and desperate. The discussion highlights Iran's recent missile strikes on Israel as a sign of desperation rather than strength, aiming to control damage and assert some level of deterrence in a rapidly deteriorating situation. They also touch on the internal political dynamics in Iran, including the impact of leadership changes and public sentiment towards foreign policy. Azizi emphasizes the challenges Iran faces, including a lack of reliable allies and the potential for further escalation in its conflict with Israel and the United States. --Timestamps:00:01 - Intro 00:28 - Iran's Strategic Position 07:04 - Iran's Asymmetric Deterrence Strategy38:31 - Iran's Internal Politics and External Strategy48:10 - Conclusion and Reflections on Iran's Future--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapCI Site: cognitive.investmentsSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients' material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor's particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisorThis podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Chartable - https://chartable.com/privacyPodtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Jacob and Marko talk for a Joe-Rogan-amount of time – in this two-hour episode, they cover the Iranian threat to bomb Israel and what it does (and doesn't) mean for the Middle East, whether China's stimulus is real, and what's next for the Russia-Ukraine war. They also explore Trump v Harris victory scenarios…and close out with the best NBA analysis money can buy.--Timestamps:00:01 - Introductory Remarks00:57 - Middle East Tensions: Iran and Israel01:27 - Reassessing Israel's Strategic Goals02:29 - The Impact of Iranian Retaliation03:59 - Market Implications: Oil and Equities34:04 - China's Economic Stimulus: A Policy Shift?01:13:18 - Trump vs. Harris: Election Scenarios01:17:32 - The Future of Russia-Ukraine Conflict01:35:26 - NBA Preview and Predictions01:47:45 - Closing Thoughts and Outro--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapCI Site: cognitive.investmentsSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients' material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor's particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisorThis podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Chartable - https://chartable.com/privacyPodtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Elo returns to the podcast to give his thoughts about Alberto Fujimori, Peru's former dictator President. He was Bukele before there was Bukele, Milei before there was Milei, even Chavez before there was Chavez. His rise and fall tells us so much about the history of Latin American geopolitics – and points to a melancholic not-so-shining path forward.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(01:14) - Who was Fujimori(09:37) – Japan and Peru(14:12) – The Rise of Fujimori(28:33) – Vladimiro Montesinos(35:45) – Post-Fujimori(40:06)- Fujimori Legacy(49:45) – Thank you but you're a f'ing dictator.--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapCI Site: cognitive.investmentsSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients' material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor's particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisorThis podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Chartable - https://chartable.com/privacyPodtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Jacob and Rob dive into the microgeopolitics of Los Angeles before focusing on the big macro news of the week: Chinese economic stimulus. They give the bull and bear case for China's moves to stimulate the economy. Also, the geopolitics of noodles.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(01:00) - Microgeopolitics of LA28:00 – Ports, France, and Brazil30:00 – China--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapCI Site: cognitive.investmentsSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients' material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor's particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisorThis podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Chartable - https://chartable.com/privacyPodtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Jacob welcomes PauloMacro onto the podcast to discuss his macro view, oil, grains, emerging markets… and why the time might have finally come for Brazil.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(01:22) - Paulo's view(13:05) – US elections(19:32) – Oil(33:08)– China(41:20) – Grains(51:10) – Brazil--Referenced in the Show:Link to Paulo's Substack: https://substack.com/@paulomacro--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapCI Site: cognitive.investmentsSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients' material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor's particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisorThis podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Chartable - https://chartable.com/privacyPodtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Jacob and Rob discuss the Fed's decision to cut interest rates, the BIOSECURE Act, Israel's new front against Hezbollah, and Mexico's judicial reforms. The overall theme of the podcast, despite a general overtone of paranoid dystopianism from the week's events, is the slow and steady breaking of rules and norms in so many aspects of global politics and trade.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(02:05-10:00) – Fed(09:10) – BIOSECURE Act(22:23) – Hezbollah and Israel(42:51) – Mexico's judicial reforms--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapCI Site: cognitive.investmentsSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients' material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor's particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisorThis podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Chartable - https://chartable.com/privacyPodtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Jacob and Rob are back from vacation! They share some microgeopolitical takes from their respective journeys and talk about the faceoff between Elon Musk and Brazil.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(00:40) – Fargo(19:50) – Briancon(30:00) – Brazil vs X--Referenced in the Show:--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapCI Site: cognitive.investmentsSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients' material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor's particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisorThis podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Chartable - https://chartable.com/privacyPodtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Jacob welcomes Alexandra Finch on the podcast to talk about the mpox outbreak in the context of the international legal frameworks that apply including WHO's emergency declaration, how they are being applied, and how they are/should be reformed.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(01:30) - Mpox emergency declaration(06:30) - Needs v. realities(12:56) - How does the WHO actually work? Who pays for the vaccines?(22:30) – International Health Regulations and Global Pandemic Treaty(33:55) – Pitfalls of international law(41:30) – How to build trust in institutions--Referenced in the Show:https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-world-desperately-needs-a-new-pandemic-treaty/https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2410395.https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/21/opinion/mpox-vaccines-africa-pandemic.html--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapCI Site: cognitive.investmentsSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients' material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor's particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisorThis podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Chartable - https://chartable.com/privacyPodtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp