Podcasts about march fomc

US equities were mostly higher for the week. A major part of the market narrative was the lack of any major tape bombs from Trump relating to trade or tariffs. Somewhat dovish takeaways from the March FOMC meeting also helped support bullish sentiment.

George Goncalves, Head of Macro Strategy in the Americas, recaps what has been driving market volatility as well as where he thinks broader markets may go in the short-run. Additionally, he goes over what to expect at the March FOMC meeting where the Fed likely conveys a neutral message as they are "not in a hurry" to cut rates or get worried about the recent market vol and financial conditions tightening.

Our Global Head of Fixed Income and Public Policy Research, Michael Zezas, and Global Head of Macro Strategy, Matt Hornbach, discuss how the Trump administration's fiscal policies could impact Treasuries markets.----- Transcript -----Michael Zezas: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Morgan Stanley's Global Head of Fixed Income and Public Policy Research.Matthew Hornbach: And I'm Matthew Hornbach, Global Head of Macro Strategy.Michael Zezas: Today, we'll talk about U.S. fiscal policy expectations under the new Trump administration and the path for U.S. Treasury yields.It's Thursday, January 30th at 10am in New York.Fiscal policy is one of the four key channels that have a major impact on markets. And I want to get into the outlook for the broader path for fiscal policy under the new administration. But Matt, let's start with your initial take on this week's FOMC meeting.Matthew Hornbach: So, investors came into the FOMC meeting this week with a view that they were going to hear a message from Chair Powell that sounded very similar to the message they heard from him in December. And I think that was largely the outcome. In other words, investors got what they expected out of this FOMC meeting. What did it say about the chance the Fed would lower interest rates again as soon as the March FOMC meeting? I think in that respect investors walked away with the message that the Fed's baseline view for the path of monetary policy probably did not include a reduction of the policy rate at the March FOMC meeting. But that there was a lot of data to take on board between now and that meeting. And, of course, the Fed as ever remains data dependent.All of that said, the year ahead for markets will rely on more than just Fed policy. Fiscal policy may feature just as prominently. But during the first week of Trump's presidency, we didn't get much signaling around the president's fiscal policy intentions. There are plenty of key issues to discuss as we anticipate more details from the new administration.So, Mike, to set the scene here. What is the government's budget baseline at the start of Trump's second term? And what are the president's priorities in terms of fiscal policies?Michael Zezas: You know, I think the real big variable here is the set of tax cuts that expire at the end of 2025. These were tax cuts originally passed in President Trump's first term. And if they're allowed to expire, then the budget baseline would show that the deficit would be about $100 billion smaller next year.If instead the tax cuts are extended and then President Trump were able to get a couple more items on top of that – say, for example, lifting the cap on state and local tax deduction and creating a domestic manufacturing tax credit; two things that we think are well within the consensus of Republicans, even with their slim majority – then the deficit impact swings from a contraction to something like a couple hundred billion dollars of deficit expansion next year. So, there's meaningful variance there.And Matt, we've got 10-year Treasury yields hovering near highs that we haven't seen since before the global financial crisis around 10 years ago. And yields are up around a full percentage point since September. So, what's going on here and to what extent is the debate on the deficit influential?Matthew Hornbach: Well, I think we have to consider a couple of factors. The deficit certainly being one of them, but people have been discussing deficits for a long time now. It's certainly news to no one that the deficit has grown quite substantially over the past several years. And most investors expect that the deficit will continue to grow. So, concerns around the deficit are definitely a factor and in particular how those deficits create more government bonds supply. The U.S. Treasury, of course, is in charge of determining exactly how much government bond supply ends up hitting the marketplace.But it's important to note that the incoming U.S. Treasury secretary has been on the record as suggesting that lower deficits relative to the size of the economy are desired. Taking the deficit to GDP ratio from its current 7 per cent to 3 per cent over the next four years is desirable, according to the incoming Treasury secretary. So, I think it is far from conclusive that deficits are only heading in one direction. They may very well stabilize, and investors will eventually need to come to terms with that possibility.The other factor I think that's going on in the Treasury market today relates to the calendar. Effectively we have just gone through the end of the year. It's typically a time when investors pull back from active investment, but not every investor pulls back from actively investing in the market. And in particular, there is a consortium of investors that trade with more of a momentum bias that saw yields moving higher and invested in that direction; that, of course, exacerbated the move.And of course, this was all occurring ahead of a very important event, which was the inauguration of President Trump. There was a lot of concern amongst investors about exactly what the executive orders would entail for key issues like trade policy. And so there was, I think, a buyer's strike in the government bond market really until we got past the inauguration.So, Mike, with that background, can you help investors understand the process by which legislation and its deficit impact will be decided? Are there signposts to pay attention to? Perhaps people and processes to watch?Michael Zezas: Yeah, so the starting point here is Republicans have very slim majorities in the House of Representatives and the Senate. And extending these tax cuts in the way Republicans want to do it probably means they won't get enough Democratic votes to cross the aisle in the Senate to avoid a filibuster.So, you have to use this process called budget reconciliation to pass things with a simple majority. That's important because the first step here is determining how much of an expected deficit expansion that Republicans are willing to accept. So, procedurally then, what you can expect from here, is the House of Representatives take the first step – probably by the end of May. And then the Senate will decide what level of deficit expansion they're comfortable with – which then means really in the fall we'll find out what tax provisions are in, which ones are out, and then ultimately what the budget impact would be in 2026.But because of that, it means that between here and the fall, many different fiscal outcomes will seem very likely, even if ultimately our base case, which is an extension of the TCJA with a couple of extra provisions, is what actually comes true.And given that, Matt, would you say that this type of confusion in the near term might also translate into some variance in Treasury yields along the way to ultimately what you think the end point for the year is, which is lower yields from here?Matthew Hornbach: Absolutely. There's such a focus amongst investors on the fiscal policy outlook that any volatility in the negotiation process will almost certainly show up in Treasury yields over time.Michael Zezas: Got it.Matthew Hornbach: On that note, Mike, one more question, if I may. Could you walk me through the important upcoming dates for Congress that could shed light on the willingness or ability to expand the deficit further?Michael Zezas: Yeah, so I'd pay attention to this March 14th deadline for extending stopgap appropriations because there will likely be a lot of chatter amongst Congressional Republicans about fiscal expectations. And it's the type of thing that could feed into some of the volatility and perception that you talked about, which might move markets in the meantime.I still think most of the signal we have to wait for here is around the reconciliation process, around what the Senate might say over the summer. And then probably most importantly, the negotiation in the fall about ultimately what taxes will be passed, what that deficit impact will be. And then there's this other variable around tariffs, which can also create an offsetting impact on any deficit expansion.So still a lot to play for despite that near term deadline, which might give us a little bit of information and might influence markets on a near term basis.Matthew Hornbach: Great. Well Mike, thanks for taking the time to talk.Michael Zezas: Matt, great speaking with you. And as a reminder, if you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please take a moment to rate and review us wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Join us on Beyond the Benchmark as we review the Q2 2024 Insight document. The macro A-team come together to talk through the thinking behind the publication. The worst predictions for the state of the global economy fail to materialise once again, while the markets wake up to the new reality of a higher interest rate environment that's here to stay, with the Fed holding rates in the March FOMC. In other areas, we ask is it the end of the ICE age?Our host, Moz Afzal:https://bit.ly/31XbkTROur guests:Daniel Murrayhttps://bit.ly/3tNPXSKPaul Tempertonhttp://tier.co.uk/Joaquin Thulhttps://bit.ly/3d7QWGlGianLuigi Mandruzzatohttps://bit.ly/3daScaXStefan Gerlach, Chief Economist at EFGbit.ly/3mz6t8VSam Jochim, Economist:https://bit.ly/3XLsZKvEFGAM:https://www.newcapital.com/Important disclaimersThe value of investments and the income derived from them can fall as well as rise, and past performance is no indicator of future performance. 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This week George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, walks through the ever evolving reaction function from the Fed, where George isn't terribly concerned about the recent Fed hawkish comments. George feels that this has been standard operating procedure, where the Fed tries to calibrate their message after a FOMC meeting. What we learned at the March FOMC is still important, the Fed is increasingly focused on their dual-mandate and will react to labor market weakness just as it would to changes for the path for inflation. George also walked through a special topic theme from the latest Macro2Markets Monthly report, the topic being how healthy is the consumer and are there signs of the wealth effect at work post the recent large rally in financial assets. Lastly George gave a mini-NFP preview.

US equities were higher this week as the S&P 500 posted the best weekly performance this year, underpinned by a big Treasury rally and dovish takeaways from this week's March FOMC meeting. This week's upside was primarily driven by the March FOMC meeting that included the dot plot holding projections for three rate cuts this year and Chair Powell downplaying recent hotter inflation prints. This week saw some solid economic data including March flash manufacturing PMI, which hit the highest level since Jun-22, though services PMI was a bit weaker than expected.

I think the Fed is extremely data dependent, if anything, too data dependent, says Anna Wong, chief US economist for Bloomberg Economics. In this Macro Matters edition of the FICC focus podcast, Wong joins host Ira Jersey, chief US interest rate strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence, to unpack the March FOMC meeting. The pair discuss the surprises and developments from the meeting, including revisions to the Statement of Economic Projections and their implications for the path of Fed policy. Revisions to longer-run rate expectations, intermeeting black swan events, thresholds for interest rate cuts, and risk cases to economic forecasts are also discussed.

21st March- Crypto & Coffee at 8

This week George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, gives us an update on his latest view since his last podcast and highlights what is driving market sentiment and views lately. George then walks us through the March FOMC preview report, focused on what is our base-case and risks around our views into and out of the Fed meeting. George believes Chair Powell will aim to sound neutral as the market has already priced-out a lot of the recent cut expectations and the data trends remain mixed.

Neil Azous of Rareview Capital deciphers the landscape heading into the March FOMC meeting. Neil is looking for any changes in stance regarding the voting members' views on the path of rates later in 2024. In this episode Neil also reads the technical picture on a particular sector and adds color to investment theme that could be the next big investment trend.  

Tony Zhang PhD, CFA and Rich Excell CFA, CMT are together for another episode of Macro Matters. In this episode before the March FOMC meeting, Tony and Rich discuss the recent moves in commodities, what this means for inflation, how the bond market is reacting to this news on inflation, what we can expect from the FOMC, and finally, how assets are moving around the world based on this information. They cover a ton of ground ahead of important catalysts for the market

Big Week - AND HOW! Big Caps BIG - Small Caps Small AAPL declined 3.4% on the week while AMZN jumped 8.0% and META gained 20.5%. Shakeup at Morgan Stanley Banking Sector Fears (NYCB) The latest Closest to The Pin. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up -  Big Week - AND HOW! - Big Caps BIG - Small Caps Small (Regional Bank woes) --- AAPL declined 3.4% on the week while AMZN jumped 8.0% and META gained 20.5%. - Shakeup at Morgan Stanley - Banking Sector Fears (NYCB) - AI induced euphoria - is that a thing? Market intoxicated on it. Market Update - Powell was Hawkish - Markets Didn't Care (past Wednesday) - HUGE Employment Surprise - Market Didn't Care (after 10 minutes) - META/Facebook Earning - Yes Markets cared - all day Friday - Undercurrent of something happening (Region  Bank breakdown - NYCB) - China comes out strong with market supportive measures  - market rallies 5% Employment Report - Much hotter than anticipated - Treasury Yields and the USD spiked - Unemployment rate at 3.7% (expected to tick up to 3.8% - Briefing.com: This report is not likely to persuade the FOMC to cut rates as soon, or as much, as the market had hoped. As a result, the fed funds futures market repriced the probability of a 25-basis points rate cut at the March FOMC meeting to 20.5% (from 38.0% yesterday and 47.6% one week ago) while the probability of a 25-basis points rate cut at the May FOMC meeting has been reduced to 74% (from 93.8% yesterday), according to the CME FedWatch Tool. - markets were a bit flushed on the initial report but tossed it aside and preferred to focus on META earnings Rate Cut Odd for MARCH - As a result of the Fed meeting and employment report, the fed funds futures market repriced the probability of a 25-basis points rate cut at the March FOMC meeting to 20.5% (from 38.0% yesterday and 47.6% one week ago) while the probability of a 25-basis points rate cut at the May FOMC meeting has been reduced to 74% (from 93.8% yesterday), SO REACHING - Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said Friday that while the January job report was impressive on the surface, underlying details were not as strong. - “The headline number was almost breathtaking,” Goolsbee said in an interview on the “PBS NewsHour” program. - “If you peel back the onion a little bit, it's not as strong as that headline number advertises … but it's still very strong,” he said. - In particular, he noted that hours worked fell 0.2% last month despite the jump in net new jobs. Amazon - Blowout - Earnings per share: $1.00 vs. 80 cents expected by LSEG - Revenue: $170 billion vs. $166.2 billion expected - Amazon Web Services: $24.2 billion vs. $24.2 billion, according to StreetAccount - Advertising: $14.7 billion vs. $14.2 billion, according to StreetAccount - Amazon said first-quarter sales will be between $138 billion and $143.5 billion, representing growth of 8% to 13%. Analysts were expecting revenue of $142.1 billion, according to analysts. META - BLOW-OOOUUUUTTTT - Meta Platforms beats by $0.51, beats on revs; guides Q1 revs above consensus; - FY24 total expense guidance unchanged at $94-$99 bln, - CapEx guidance of $30-$37 bln, up $2.0 bln at high end; - They stopped spending on META. - Initiates quarterly dividend of $0.50/share, also announces $50 bln increase to share repurchase program. - Stock up 21% Apple Earnings - headline: Apple beats by $0.08, beats on revs; iPhones and services beat; China revenue declines 13.1%  - Magic words: CEO Tim Cook thinks there is a huge opportunity to for Apple on AI, but he does not want to get ahead of things. - Apple reports Q1 iPhone revenue of $69.

Brad Stone, Bloomberg News Senior Executive Editor for Global Tech, shares his AI insights from the World Economic Forum in Davos. Wedbush's Dan Ives details his takeaways from the CES conference. Dana Telsey of the Telsey Advisory Group discusses the strength of the US consumer in the wake of retail sales data. Charles Schwab's Liz Ann Sonders ties in Led Zepplein with her markets outlook. Hosted by Tom Keene and Damian Sassower. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance  Full Transcript: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane, along with Jonathan Farrell and Lisa Abramowitz. Join us each day for insight from the best and economics, geopolitics, finance and investment. Subscribe to Bloomberg Surveillance on demand on Apple, Spotify and anywhere you get your podcasts, and always on Bloomberg dot Com, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app. He is definitive on Amazon of course, the Trophy book right now Amazon Unbound. Jeff Bezos The Invention of a Global Empire. He joins us from Davos, the meetings of the World Economic Forum at brad Thrilled to have you with Bloomberg Surveillance this morning. Let me cut to the chase. I see AI at Microsoft is countable, revenue, co pilot, azore all the rest of it. And I see a lot of other AI is smoking mirrors. How do you parse between legitimate artificial intelligence future and the makeup, the fantasy, the comedy of it. How do you parse? Oh? Boy, well, thanks Tom for having me. Hi Damien. Look, I've been covering Silicon Valley long enough that I've seen this story play out before. We're at the beginning of a hype cycle. There will be disappointment a lot of you know, the visions of Agi computers that reason that change our world, they seem far fetched, you know. There there we talk about a trough of dissolutionment that will happen. But you're right that there you know that there are real revenues, real benefits. Yesterday, Microsoft announced that it was bringing its open AI powered co pilot to the office seat, so you know at twenty dollars a month, making it available small business as an individual users. That's real. Yeah, brtt I signed up last night. I was going to be reack. Can you see me, Damien? Can you see me do an artificial Intelli get out of the way. Fred. If I look at this, can you say that the Magnificent seven they seem to be away from the hype. How is the Magnificent seven going to create revenue and cash flow out of AI? Yeah? I mean they're the best position because they're they're they're selling the picks and shovels to all the miners. You know, this is Alphabet and Amazon and Microsoft running the world's most powerful cloud services and making basically AI available as a service to every university and startup in consumer goods company that you know wants to use these tools for a variety. It's it could be R and D could be customer service. So you know, even even though that'll be a work in progress there, the revenues will be real. My question for Santia Tom by the way yesterday was you know, do you control any of this. You're you're investors in open AI. You don't even have a board seat. You're like in the back of the bus with a seatbelt, and it's got such peculiar governance. And he said, you know, it's fine, we just want stability. So I don't know if I quite believe it. I think they're outsourcing a key competency. But they're in the cappards seat, the driver's seat because they did make that investment. I'm sure the Amazons and the Googles of the world wish that they hadn't passed up the open AI opportunity when they had the chance. Well, Brad, I appreciate you answering those two questions from that artificial personification of Tom Keen that wasn't really Tom Keen answering those questions, And my question for you is talk to me about deep fake videos X these platforms. What's to stop open AI and chat, GPT and all this artificial nonsense from mudding the waters ahead of the election? Yeah? Well, what it's funny because it is really the talk of the conference that you've got national elections in some seventy seven countries around the world. Half the world's population could head to the polls at the same time as this enormously powerful technology is made available to people, and what's to stop it from being missus? I know this is going to carry a lot of water with our listeners, but you know they are raising their right hand and putting their left hand over their hearts and saying, we're not going to allow our technology to be abusing. They really understand the risks. I mean, I mean do they? I think they do? They? I think they do because we've all seen this movie before and meta its reputation went through the meat grinder because social media was perverted. You know, yesterday, it's no surprise that Sam Altman's here. He spent time with us at the Bloomberg House, and before our interview, they posted a statement on their blog on their election policy and said that chat GPT cannot be used for any political campaign. And they said that images generated by DOLI, their their image maker, will carry a cryptographic watermark to show the providence. And but you know, and my question for Sam was like, these are great intentions. You've got the weight of all the black cat developers trying to break this stuff. How to enforce it where Meta and Google and TikTok have all kind of let failed it with the genie out of the bottle, right And he said, you know, they're aware of the risks. So I do think it's going to be a rocky year with some of these elections, and we're going to see this technology abuse, right, brand I'm sure that no one can forge those crypto water marks. I have one last question. I mean, my colleague Tim Craig had from BI is actually in Davos listening to Altman, and he said, I mean, you know, Paulman obviously spoke and he was talking about how AI will make people more productive. Talk to us a little bit about that narrative. The great worry is that when this technology is fully implemented, that there will be a great dislocation of workers at low level level programmers, customer service agents, you know, in en mass replacement along with productivity, and it will worsen the digital divide, and you'll have countries that are particularly hard hit, and it could lead to further political alienation and you know, maybe more or autocratic government's or real nightmare scenario. So you know, that's the worry. And I think the stewards of this technology, you know, Davos is the land of performative optimism, I kind of like to joke, And so of course they're saying that it's going to increase productivity and we're all going to lead better lives working less. You know, maybe Tom will get to sleep in one one morning when AI kind of takes over. But I don't know. I mean, you know, the I think it will make people more productive, but I think it might replace some jobs as well. More question, I think it's what everyone knows. With your your ownership of Amazon and all you've done with the Amazon unbound, They've gone round trip massive post pandemic collapse. The come back is the next Amazon, Josie's Amazon. Is it going to make total return like we've known over the last decade. Excuse me, so you're asking me about the stock price. I mean it's it's yeah. I mean, look, if I could predict it, I'd probably be in a different line of work. I mean, I do think. You know, Andy Jassey is now a couple of years into his tenure. He is and by the way he's here at Davos, he has pared back some of the excesses of the late stage Bezos that we just saw another round of Laos. This is becoming a very lead and efficient company as he bets on the core competencies, which is AWS and the Amazon marketplace, empowering third party sellers. They've got their work cut out for them. But I do think there's a bit of momentum there. Brad Stone from the meetings of the World Economic Forum, I can't say enough about his new book, Amazon and Bound. Jeff Bezos, The Invention of a Global Empire, Joining us now the Tech Pignata of two twenty four. Daniel Heize joins us in Webbush. He's been traveling ces Las Vegas, joining us today from Warsaw Poland. And what you learn at Las Vegas at cees don't give me the mumbo jumble. What was the backstory in Las Vegas? I thought it's about Ai just how mainstream the technology is getting. I mean, tom My opinion, the biggest cees in the last twenty five years. It shows this AI revolution it's not hype, it's real. It's on the doorstep. I want you to talk Dan Ives, and this is what you don't see folks, as Dan Ives is doing the media blah blah blah by this apple. The gloom crew hates them, but beneath it is careful financial work. Can you quantify what the new announcement of AI over to Microsoft three sixty five, like, can you add up the impact of that to a giant company like Microsoft. It's when you put it together, this is going to be eight hundred billion to a trillion of incremental value to the Microsoft story. I mean they are leading the AI revenlue with the Della and Redman, along with the godfather of AI jents and the video Tom I think the monzation that's happening in Microsoft is still so underappreciated in terms of what we're seeing in the field. Dan they're asking for more money, I mean they're asking for more computing power, more hardware, more technology. They say, this is not just big, it is massive. It is huge. Do you agree with that. I think it's the biggest transformational tech we've seen since Star of the Internet. And that's why enterprises they're lining up. Conversion could be sixty seventy percent. And that's why as Tom's talking about the doomsayers again, you know, obviously negative untech, I think this earning season turns that around because the real monization of AI is here. It starts from the Della and Microsoft and Dan. I mean the real I mean you just said it right there. Don't you need access to data, to unique data sets in order to basically make the AI go. And so when I think of Amazon, okay, find they've got access to consumer data, I think of Microsoft. It's everything else. You know, people on their computer and talk to us about these companies and the data they have access to and how that's going to differentiate them in the environment you're talking about. I mean, it's a new age. And that's why when you look at the cloud, the big hyperscale players, Microsoft, of course, Amazon, Google and others, they've had the data sets, but they haven't had the tools that they can monetize and make intelligence. That that's why the use cases are excluding. That's why this AI revolution right now, I believe it fuels is new tech bull market. I a February second, We're going to get Apple earnings. It's a ballet. I actually sit down with the beverage of my choice folks at the home computer after the surveillance n APP and what's a joy here? Is they release like other firms, a press release that's clear and in English? Dan ies, what are we going to see in the treatment of the four accounting statements from Apple? Four pm, February second. Yeah, look, that's the drum roll, right, And I think when Cooper Tino comes out, the big thing is going to be services. We are looking at team type of growth for services and that's key that could really be incrementally we need that as a one point five to one point six trillion services the margins double out of hardware obviously all focus on iPhone units. Despite obviously many yelling fire in a crowd theater, I actually think it was a pretty strong iPhone unit number. Okay, wait, well, want to get upside of the track now, Dan knows a drill, Damian pick it up here. Okay, But I'm sitting there with the beverage in my left hand, looking at the accounting statement, and the media is not readjusting the currency iPhone sales as mister Ive says, we're pretty darn good. And then you had to figure in dollar currency adjustments. Whoa doom and gloom? I mean, Ives is one hundred percent right about the iPhone of the global market, Tom. I mean, it just passed Samsung as the world's top phone in the full year twenty twenty three. But I mean, Dan, here's my question. What companies are best position to profit from what you're talking about here? I mean, is it the chip makers? I mean what sort of hardware companies? Is it software? I mean, what are you seeing? I think it's software and chips. When you look at names like Microsoft, the Magnificent seven, you can Microsoft, Google, Amazon. Then you look at some of these names like Mango, dB, Salesforce, dot Com and of course a MD with Lisa Sue and chips. This is the start of this tidal wave, A trillion dollars of incremental spend next decade. That's how this is all going to play out. Software and chips leading it. You know, I got one more for you. I mean, if you're a new company with you know, and you're in the AI boom, and you know you've got the talent, and you know you're competing. Where do you want to be located? Do you want to be on the West Coast? Do you still want to be in Palo Alto. I want to be based in a five one two area. Oh. Really, that's new look and that's what that's that's that's a silicon value two dot of you're seeing that boom more and more for AI engineers, and I think that's really started the new age that we're seeing from an AI perspective. Well, we'll help our international audience. What is Michael Dell and Venna down in Austin to the two of you, Damien? When you think five to one two South Congress, I think of South Congress. I think of barbecue. I mean I think of Austin, Texas. I mean that is the Los Angeles. I think of Joe Wisenthal's band myself. I think they're you know, outstanding dan Ees. What's special about Austin, Texas. I Mean, there's a lot of things special about Austin, Texas, but the engineering talent that that's been created there, obviously outside University of Texas, is really unprecedented. It's one of the you know, more and more tech companies from Google to of course Tessa to Meadow moving down there, and it's really becoming a really go to destination for tech leaving the four one five, going to the five one two worldwide on Bloomberg surveillance. And it's time now to make some news. You got a two hundred and fifty dollars price target on Apple. Can we lift that up to day? Miss Graves? I mean, look Tom, I mean you talk the bolt case. This will be a four trillion dollar mark ab we believe by the end of this year. I remember AI. There's zero dollars given for AI in Apple's valuation. That's why this is it. Get that popcorn ready in the key in household when they come out with that AI and au June from Warsaw poland a trooper to be with us in his travels. Dana is a Webush of course, outstanding work by him. It's he's with Webbush Security is optimistic on Apple and computers. Right now, we're going to talk about the pulse of the Christmas holiday this season that we saw. There's just no one better to do with this than Dana at Telsea with all of our heritage at the corner in Fifth Avenue in fifty seventh Street, her family's heritage, and she's done it in securities analysis per year at Dana, you were right, the gloom crew was wrong. What did the people of caution get wrong about retail America into the end of the year. I think overall, and Tom, thank you so much for having me. I think overall. One of the key things that was the difference is we had Christmas that was later this year, so people had more time in order to procrastinate, and so really everything was driven around the event days, whether it was the Black Friday weekend or then that week leading up to Christmas. It's what made the difference. It's not that holiday sales were so great, but goods sold at full price inventory levels only, and sales came in line with expectations for the most part. And as a Dana Telsea Microeconomics Damien sasaw or what she just said there goods sold at full price was to me my observation on it. You know, I'm curious, Dan, I'm curious to here we got some China date overnight, right, I know, I just I'm pivoting away here, but I mean, wow, that economy is sluggish, and I think a lot of the big luxury goods LVMH carrying her mad I mean, they were a pretty big overnight in Europe. Talk to us a little bit about what that GDP figure means to you, what it means to me, especially for luxury and I spoke last week to the CEOs of Neiman, Marcus and Sacks, and they all talked about the slowing and more challenging luxury goods environment. Look at Berbery's numbers, which we were just released at the end of the week last week, it talked about the slowdown and in Europe, the local slowdown spending and you're still not seeing the Chinese come over and spend, whether in Europe or in the US, anywhere near what we had pre pandemic. We're gonna get next week LVMH. And I think all eyes are going to be on what they say about the deceleration globally. Is there Tiffany experiment working out for those of you internationally? We have two blocks away from us, really across the street from where Dana grew up, Tiffany's with one hundred million dollars or so investment by the Arnoul family. Has that experiment been successful for LVMH. It has. Not only has it been successful, but also they garnered profitability much quicker, frankly than when it was a public company. And the way they've done it, they modernized the store, they've modernized the products. They've brought in influencers, celebrities that appeal to younger consumer. Think about it. You're talking about engagement jewelry. When do people get engaged twenties and thirties want to have a store to cater to that demographic. She's just joining us on Bloomberg surveinglist. Dana Telsey, the Telsey Advisory Group. She and Joe Feldman with great work across all of retail. And I know Damien Missus Sassa are called me up. She said, you got to ask about the ani there leathern Red Soul Christian labby Tom Boots one thousand and five hundred ninety five dollars. It's a way to get through the snow drifts. Yeah, no, I'm not in New York City. I'm not worried about demand with Missus Sasa right there. But what I will say and Dana, And this is my question for you. You know, El Nino, right, input costs, margins, you know, talk to me about the impact of El Nino on cotton prices on some of these things. I mean, do you see that kind of trickling through to the bottom line? It does? I mean one of the things keep in mind all the freight expenses and the tailwinds that companies got from lower freight costs in twenty twenty three. Apparel, it's going to benefit with lower cotton costs in twenty twenty four, but maybe not to the same magnitude. We're still going to need some level of sales leverage. And there are two drivers in twenty twenty four. It's about innovation and it's about value. You have those two elements and you'll have a formula to drive sales growth. So talk to us also. I mean on the input side, I mean, what are you thinking here? I mean, gas prices are now ticking up. Obviously we didn't see much evidence of that in the retail sales print. But you know, how does this really impact some of these you know, these large luxury goods companies. I mean, do you see any pack there? I don't for certainly for raw materials, cost increases, luxury goods. Companies have the power frankly of being able to raise price. You're certainly seeing Chanelle do it trying to reach what Ourmez is doing. But all the others you're not seeing price increases like you had, and they're managing their inventory much more carefully. I gotta go get your away from March data. Telsey, tell me about your single best buy when you and Joe Felman get to work. Where's the value? Is it in big box? Is it in middle of the road or is it in lux I think overall, definitely. I think when the weakness and luxury, like any weakness in LVMH, I think that's an opportunity. But really it continues to be about off price and discount. Given what you've seen in the moderation consumer spend a low TJX I mean air Mez, I mean, I guess leading Away is being least affected. Why are they trading at a multiple of forty seven times earnings? Because, frank when you think about something like Ramez, there is so far there is no level of supply where the demand doesn't exceed the supply. Miss yeah, perfect, I mean to interrupt Missus Sassar's on the phone. What's the question? She only shots at the Ponsovecchio in Florence. Tom Now, I mean, you know, I was just in Europe and I have to say, I mean there was a lot of foot track in some traffic in some of these places. And you know you talk about Hugo Boss, you know who had disappointing operating profits. I mean Berber you mentioned them. I think you know, the things seem to be turning around here in Europe. That's good to hear. I think that would help all a luxury. Lisa Mateo's here as well. She wants to ask the question. Lisa Matteo, question here for Dana Telsea to get your retail days started. Ooh, all right, what is the hottest? What should I be looking for? As far as you hear these talks about selling back those fashionable high end pocket books, if I just happened to have one at home, what's the remarket value of something like that? It depends if it's an ermez bag, whatever market value you walked it out of the store of or tried to bring it to someone to sell, it's higher. And for some I've heard it's at least ten percent higher. Even the day it walks out the door, it holds its value. What's the greatest brand destructure into Lisa Matteo's brilliant question, which is the bag Lisa wants to unload this morning? Do you want a higher price? A Birken or a Kelly? Is your bag that you're going to get a higher price? Dana Telsey, thank you. So it's give me a single best buy, please, I need a name here. Give me a single best bike. Go to TJX. Believe me, it's the winner for twenty four and they have the Kelly bag as well. Dana Telsey, thank you, thank you, thank you so much. On the real retail of America now joining us to piece it Together's liz Ane Saunders, chief investment strategist to Charles Schwab, She's in charge their led Zeppelin division or thrilled that you could join today. I look at the market and I need a whole lot of love here, and to me, the whole lot of love is going to come from six trillion dollars in money market funds. How much of that is going to go? At Schwab over to the equity market. I wouldn't necessarily count on a lot of it. I don't think that that should be seen as money that is poised to jump into the equity market. I think a lot of that is stickier money that might have been in other places, including traditional deposits, or in riskier places in order to pick up income that now can be in the safety. And also, yes, six trillion dollars is a record, but we're nowhere near a record as a share of total stock market capitalization. All you have to do is look to the nineteen nineties to see a period where you consistently saw increases in the amount of money and money market funds commensurate with the increase in the stock market, the drivers being different. So I don't view that as some sort of moment in time source of additional funds that would flow into equities. Right now, I'm confused because I get a stream of thought that people are cautious, nervous, and I get another stream of thought that everybody, including damiens ors O Pair, is in the market. Which is it at Schwab, is there an enthusiasm by your clients for equities? I think there's cautious optimism I wouldn't consider it over enthusiasm. In fact, if you look at attitudinal measures of investor sentiment more broadly than Josh Schwab, although at seven trillion dollars we're a pretty big slice of the retail investing universe. But if you look at attitudinal measures like AAII, those are purely attitudinal. It's survey base, and that's jumped around quite a bit, and it's just there tends to be more of a knee jerk reaction to what's going on in the market moment in time. But even within that survey you get the equity exposure, and at times where you've seen bearishness really pick up fairly quickly, it's not met with a similar move down in equity exposure. So I think when looking at sentiment, you've got to look at the marriage between the attitudinal side and the behavioral side. Interesting and of course, in the nine o'clock are here Wall Street time, Damien Sassar has been medicated to tang mimosas have clicked in Damien. No questions to lizan on Indonesia. Okay, I'm not going to channel Robert Planting led Zippelin led Zeppelin now Lizan, but I am going to channel Pink Floyd. I'm gonna channel Roger Waters. Here are the markets comfortably numb to the concept of a FED cut in March? I mean, let's be clear, I mean like, this is unbelievable that you know the markets are priced that way, yet you know it seems to becoming fast becoming consensus. What are your thoughts on that? So we have seen a bit of a shift, particularly with with today's retail sales report. So a week ago, if you look at probabilities in terms of FOED funds future market of what's going to happen at the March FOMC meeting, you were up at around sixty five percent probability. I think that's down to I don't know, fifty seven or fifty eight percent now, and it's been kind of a moving target. So I think the market may slowly be adjusting to what. Frankly, most FED speakers have been trying. The message they've been trying to impart is you know whoa all l squel. It's given what we know now, it is probably not a backdrop supportive of not just starting as soon as March, but the FED providing you know, six rate cuts this year. I think that disconnect still exists, it's just not as wide as it was even a week ago. So then lusanna backuping yields means, I guess from the equity perspective, you want to get a little bit more defensive. What areas of the market would you go to to protect to protect in this type of environment. I mean you would think classic defensive sectors like you know, utilities. I mean, I mean, look at where valuations are there, I mean, what works in your portfolio. Well, so there are the classic defensive sectors like utilities. Then there's this era's defense sectors, which incorporates what I call the growth trio of tech communication service as a consumer discretionary of course, housing all of the Magnificent seven and really all the way back to the early part of the pandemic. That's been this era's defensive type names. And that's because of strength the balance sheet. They don't have to rely on funding in the traditional banking system or even in the capital markets. So defensive is just a descriptor. It's not some well determined type, and it is quality and you know, it's specific to the beginning of your question with this direct relationship in yields, I mean the peak and yields. It gave us the big move up from late July, I mean from late October until the end of the year. But then we saw that bottom end yields, and that meant we saw the market rollover, particularly small caps. And one of the things we've been saying, especially with small caps, do you know there's money that's once to find ideas down the cap spectrum, but do not sacrifice quality, particularly when you go down the cap spectrum. So you want to still have that strength of balance sheet, interest coverage very importantly, especially as yields tick back up again, strong return on equity, have an actual earnings profile, don't be a zombie company or a non profitable company. And I think that's a lesson being taught in the last few weeks. Well, Lazan, I do have one last question there, what about this low volatility factor. I see a lot of investors moving into low VALL as sort of a defensive way of approaching the equity market. Here, how did those sectors screen from a low VALL perspective? So it's a factor that has done well when the other quality factors have been doing well, when you get these moves shifts in expectations for either FED policy or the economy, and you see it reflect and yields. You can go through short periods where you get higher volatility, higher variability as factors that do well. I think those you probably want to fade those lower quality factors, And I think low volatility maybe not as important as it was last twoar but I still think it's in the basket of quality oriented factors. Lisanzi, your iconic work. How for our listeners are viewers on YouTube? How do you avoid a Boeing? How do you avoid a Disney? How do you avoid blue chip stocks that blow up? Well, don't have a heck of a lot of your portfolio invest in any one name or even group of names. So I think that that's one of the messages that come from things like the mag seven. There's nothing wrong. There's a reason why those stocks have done well because they check the boxes on so many of those quality factors. But be mindful of volatility and portfolio based rebalancing. You know a lot of investors do the rebalancing based on the calendar. They might do it once a year, at best once a quarter. But our message has been let your portfolio tell you when it's time to rebalance, even at the individual stock level, where the moves in your portfolio are going to dictate when you add low and trim high. Maybe don't focus so much on doing it at the calendar. Okay, trigger, stop the show. This is the single most important insight of the day for all of you listening and watching. I can't say enough the importance of moving to a Sander's percentage ownership rebail versus a calendar gimmick invented by marketing people that have never owned a share of Anaconda Copper in their life. Liz Anna, what percentage is a vanilla statement? Do you rebail? Is it when something gets the five percent of portfolio? Or is there a Sander's magic number. I don't know that there's a magic number for individual investors. Keeping mind though, that part of the issue with the mag seven and how big they've become as a share of the SMP recently hitting thirty percent, is that even institutional managers, whether it's mutual funds or even ETFs, have perhaps on how much they can own if the S and P. If someone just said, hey, let's create this index and here's what's going to look like. It wouldn't actually pass muster or securities regulations, not to mention the fact that many fund managers can't hold such a large share of those names. So you can use that as maybe not an exact guide for what percent becomes too much, but this notion that there are going to be a lot of institutions that simply have to trim because of their own guidelines on how much they can own of the stock. Just in many cases it's fibers. We've got to interrupt with. And just in from led Zeppelin News, Robert Plant will tour the United Kingdom with Saving Grace. Look for that two thousand and twenty four. I want to see him tour with Jimmy Page and John Paul Jones and Jason Bottoms. So that's what I'm waiting for. That's what she's waiting for, and she will be there in the arena when they do that. So well, Lizzie Siders, thank you so much. Subscribe to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast on Apple, Spotify and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live every weekday starting at seven am Eastern. I'm Bloomberg dot com the iHeartRadio app tune In, and the Bloomberg Business App. You can watch us live on Bloomberg Television and always I'm the Bloomberg Terminal. Thanks for listening. I'm Tom Keen, and this is BloombergSee 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The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were both higher this week for the fourth week of the past five, though the major averages ended off the best weekly levels after a bit of a Friday selloff. Overall, markets finish higher for the week, with upside tabbed to a few factors, including disinflation traction after cooler than expected CPI and PPI prints. Fed updates leaned hawkish as the minutes to the March FOMC meeting showed staff projections at the time of the meeting to include a mild recession starting later this year driven by the recent banking turmoil.

US futures are indicating a higher open. European equity markets have opened positive territory, following mixed to higher levels in Asia. US CPI in focus. March FOMC minutes also expected to provide color on policymaker's view for rate outlook. Markets are pricing in final 25bp Fed rate hike in May, before dovish pivot later in 2023.Companies Mentioned: National Instruments, Emerson Electric, Fortive, TSMC

In this episode, we have the pleasure of speaking with Ken Shinoda, Chairman of the Structured Products Committee at DoubleLine and co-manager on the firm's Total Return, Opportunistic Income, Income, Opportunistic MBS and Strategic MBS strategies. Ken will be sharing his thoughts on current Fed policy and its eventual effects on economic activity and inflation. He will also provide an update on the state of the securitized lending market covering autos, credit cards, and residential / commercial real estate.

US equities were higher this week, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq gaining for the second straight week, and growth continuing to outperform value. This week's gains came despite a big bout of volatility in Treasuries amid the Fed meeting and ongoing global banking turmoil. The March FOMC meeting ended with a unanimous 25 bp rate hike, though the policy statement changed language around future increases. Meanwhile, Secretary Yellen sent mixed messages around bank deposit guarantees and FDIC insurance.

US futures are pointing to a higher open. European equity markets have opened lower, following mixed Asian trade. Initial takeaways from March FOMC meeting note tone of statement could signal potentially earlier end to Fed's tightening cycle. Also attention on Fed dialing back its commitment to further rate hikes, as Chair Powell noted bank officials weighed a pause at Wednesday's meeting. Concerns remain over banking crisis after Yellen said not working on unilateral extension of deposit insurance.Companies Mentioned: SVB Financial Group, Ryanair, Boeing, Tencent

Monique Thanos, PhD, CFA,  Tony Zhang, PhD, CFA and Rich Excell, CFA, CMT, discuss what happened in the March FOMC meeting. What were the reactions in the short-term interest rate market, the futures market and the equity market. How is the banking crisis impacting Fed policy and what questions should CFA members be asking right now.

This episode of Unusual Whales Pod was recorded live on March 22, 2023, prior to and following the release of the March 2023 FOMC rate hike (25 BPS) and unanimous Fed vote in favor of the Fed policy.Our hosts are joined by the net's best Macroeconomic experts to discuss the March 22, 2023 FOMC decisions and presser with Jerome Powell.Panel:Cem “Jam Croissant” Karsan: https://twitter.com/jam_croissantJoseph “Fed Guy” Wang: https://twitter.com/FedGuy12Michael “Urban Kaoboy” Kao: https://twitter.com/UrbanKaoboyRandy Woodward: https://twitter.com/TheBondFreakBob Elliott: https://twitter.com/BobEUnlimitedHosted by: Unusual Whales: https://twitter.com/unusual_whalesNicholas FNS: https://twitter.com/NicholasFNSUnusual Social Media:Discord: https://discord.com/invite/unusualwhalesFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/unusualwhalesInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/unusualwhales/Reddit: https://old.reddit.com/r/unusual_whales/TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@unusual_whalesTwitter: https://twitter.com/unusual_whalesTwitch: https://www.twitch.tv/unusualwhalesYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/unusualwhales/**Disclaimer:Any content referenced in the video or on Unusual Whales are not intended to provide legal, tax, investment or insurance advice. Unusual Whales Inc. is not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (“FINRA”) or any state securities regulatory authority. Nothing on Unusual Whales should be construed as an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to buy, or a recommendation for any security by Unusual Whales or any third party. Certain investment planning tools available on Unusual Whales may provide general investment education based on your input. You are solely responsible for determining whether any investment, investment strategy, security or related transaction is appropriate for you based on your personal investment objectives, financial circumstances and risk tolerance. You should consult your legal or tax professional regarding your specific situation. You can lose some or all of your investment. See terms for more information.

Heading into a very consequential March FOMC meeting later today, Weston Nakamura examines market positioning - particularly focusing on what the real-world market implications from extreme and unprecedented levels of rate volatility are. Macro hedge funds such as Jupiter are seeing their worst performances ever, while Graticule Asia has shut down as a result of the erratic markets of late. Weston also flags Hong Kong's HIBOR rate spike, and the Turkish Lira breaking into new lows. Finally, Weston discusses FOMC market expectations, and his views on the post-Fed meeting trading environment. -- Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9U Follow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vm Follow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespread Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_  Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, returns to discuss the new risks facing financial markets and how the Fed will handle the current inflation backdrop, while dealing with renewed bank issues. George reviews two of his recent reports, one focused on the financial system's plumbing and liquidity dynamics and the other on his March FOMC preview. Listeners will recall that our house view has been that the Fed can raise rates as high as they like, but the criteria to stop matters more than where they settle at, while at the same time the more they hike, the likelihood that they break something in the markets or the economy or both where high. We argue that the criteria to stop hiking is surfacing and that the hiking cycle may be close to being over. The tightening of financial conditions and credit standards post the recent bank failures, along with the long and variable lags of the prior hikes in the system (which are clearly leaving a dent on the financial markets) will likely result in the upcoming recession being ushered in sooner. This makes the upcoming FOMC meeting decision a much closer call as a result. Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

CEO Chris Boyd, CFP®, and CIO Brian Regan, CFA®, talk about what happened with the recent bank failures, the logistics behind Federal Reserve and FDIC actions, lessons investors should take, and the market's response to all of this. They discuss how these events will affect CPI and Federal Reserve expectations at the March FOMC meeting with regard to interest rates and combatting inflation moving forward.

ECB raises rates to be new 14-year high - German 10-year bond yields are down after the ECB; Repricing a 25-bps rate hike at the March FOMC meeting following the ECB's decision to raise rates by 50 bps Today highlights from global markets, presented by Blue Suisse for free. Visit Blue Suisse website for more!

Wall Street Closes Mixed As SVB Collapse Rattles Banks; Treasury yields continue to fall in flight to safety trade; European Banks Have Worst Day in Over a Year; Rethinking the Fed rate hike at the March FOMC meeting. Today highlights from global markets, presented by Blue Suisse for free. Visit Blue Suisse website for more!

US equities were mostly lower in Monday trading, with the Dow Jones and S&P500 finishing down 28bps and 15bps respectively, while the Nasdaq finished up 45bps. The US banking situation remains the biggest focus and driver of today's fairly volatile price action. From a Fed perspective, markets are now pricing in a near-40% chance of no rate hike at the March FOMC meeting, with odds for a 50 bp hike down to 0% from 40% on Friday.

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3IVT2IZ   - The hot core US January PCE inflation data spooked markets on Friday as the market was forced to take Fed rate hike expectations to new cycle highs, with even discussion of the possibility of a 50-bp hike at the March FOMC meeting. Equities have been quick to recover as critical support held Friday, but the USD is firmer. Elsewhere, we note the many assets linked to the China reopening narrative struggling, from copper and other metals to AUD, etc., we also look at grain prices hitting new 1-year lows, look at the focus for equity markets this week on incoming earnings and more. Today's pod features Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

St. Louis Fed President James Bullard (not an FOMC voter) said that he wouldn't rule out supporting a 50-basis point rate hike at the March FOMC meeting, adding that he advocated for a 50-basis point rate hike at the Feb. 1st meeting Today highlights from global markets, presented by Blue Suisse for free. Visit Blue Suisse website for more!

As the data continues to show a weakness in inflation, is it enough to convince investors that the Fed may turn dovish on monetary policy? And how are these expectations impacting Treasury yields?----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Matthew Hornbach, Morgan Stanley's Global Head of Macro Strategy. Along with my colleagues, bringing you a variety of perspectives, today I'll talk about expectations for the Fed's monetary policy this year, and its impact on Treasury yields. It's Tuesday, January 31st at 10 a.m. in New York. So far, 2023 seems to be 2022 in reverse. High inflation, which defined most of last year, seems to have given way to a narrative of rapidly declining inflation. Wages, the Consumer Price index, data from the Institute of Supply Management, or ISM, and small business surveys all suggest softening. And Treasury markets have reacted with a meaningful decline in yield. We've now had three consecutive inflation reports, I think of them as three strikes, that did not highlight any major inflation concerns, with two of the reports being outright negative surprises. The Fed hasn't quite acknowledged the weakness in inflation, but will the third strike be enough to convince investors that inflation is slowing, so much so that the Fed may change its view on terminal rates and the path of rates thereafter? We think it is. With inflation likely on course to miss the Fed's December projections, the Fed may decide to make dovish changes to those projections at the March FOMC meeting. And in fact, the market is already pricing a deeper than expected rate cutting cycle, which aligns with the idea of lower than projected inflation. In anticipation of the March meeting, markets are pricing in nearly another 25 basis point rate hike, while our economists see a Fed that remains on hold. The driver of our economists view is that non-farm payroll gains will decelerate further, and core services ex housing inflation will soften as well, pushing the Fed to stay put with a target range between 4.5% and 4.75%.In addition to all of this, it has become clear from our conversations with investors, and recent price action, that the markets of 2022 left fixed income investors with extra cash on the sidelines that's ready to be deployed in 2023. That extra cash is likely to depress term premiums in the U.S. Treasury market, especially in the belly -or intermediate sector- of the yield curve. Given these developments, we have revised lower our Treasury yield forecasts. We see the 10 year Treasury yield ending the year near 3%, and the 2 year yield ending the year near 3.25%. That would represent a fairly dramatic steepening of the Treasury yield curve in 2023. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please take a moment to rate and review us on the Apple Podcasts app. It helps more people find the show.

Karthik Narayanan, Head of the Structured Credit group for Guggenheim Investments, and Jared Drucker, a Director and senior member of the group, join Head of Thought Leadership Jay Diamond for a timely discussion of ABS, MBS, and CLOs, how the market has been responding to rapidly changing market conditions, and where they are finding value now. Matt Bush, US Economist for Guggenheim Investments, looks under the hood of the latest CPI release and shares his take on the Minutes from the March FOMC meeting.

Henssler Money Talks – April 9, 2022Season 36, Episode 15  This week on “Money Talks,” Chief Investment Officer Troy Harmon, CFA, CVA, is joined by Director of Insurance Planning Jim Crone, CLU®, CFS®, and Senior Associate Michael Griffin, CFP®, to cover the week's market movements, the ISM Nonmanufacturing Index and the minutes from the March FOMC meeting that indicated the Fed's intent to reduce their balance sheet as early as May. Jim brought to the show a case study on a couple who needed to tap their long-term care policy. He discusses the process of applying for and receiving benefits. The experts round out the show answering listeners' questions on overweighting value and Consumer Staples stocks for a defensive strategy and how cryptocurrencies are performing in our current inflationary environment.Timestamps and Chapters 00:00     Market Roundup: Covering the week of Apr. 4 – Apr. 8, 2022 18:14     Case Study: Receiving Benefits from LTC Insurance Policies  34:39     Q&A Time: Defensive Positions and Cryptocurrencies  Follow Henssler: Facebook: http://bit.ly/HensslerFacebook   Twitter: http://bit.ly/HensslerTwitter  LinkedIn: http://bit.ly/HensslerLinkedIn  Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/hensslerfinancial/YouTube: http://bit.ly/HensslerYouTube   “Money Talks” is brought to you by Henssler Financial. Sign up for the Money Talks Newsletter: https://www.henssler.com/newsletters/ 

Welcome to Bond Investment Mentor! This is a podcast dedicated to helping community financial institutions master the art of fixed-income investments.In this episode:When did Treasury yields last rise as much as in March? (1:59)Review of March FOMC minutes (4:08)Latest MBS prepayment data (7:32)Guest: Michael Stevens - President, Graduate School of Banking at Colorado (9:25)NEW!  Bond Basics Online Investment Course (35:12) (Learn More and Register Today)If you have questions about anything covered in this episode, please email me at Chris @ BondInvestmentMentor.com.Do you know someone who could benefit from this information? Please share this episode and podcast with them!You will find more articles, tips, and resources about fixed income investing and portfolio management at BondInvestmentMentor.com. Check it out!Let's Connect via Social Media!LinkedIn: Christopher Nelson, CFAFacebook: Bond Investment Mentor

In today's episode, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy George Goncalves shares some of his observations from public data (such as TIC and MOF data) on how investment flows historically have looked in and out of Japan for U.S. assets at the start of their fiscal new year (which just started in April). George also commented on recent Fed speeches that are mentioning that the Fed's balance-sheet is poised to shrink much more quickly this time around, all of this happening ahead of the March FOMC minutes release. George ties all these developments to his macro views. Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

US equities finished higher in a quiet Monday session. The S&P has now gained for a third straight week and is up over 3.5% in the last month. Investors are looking ahead to Wednesday's release of the March FOMC meeting minutes in what is expected to be the week's main event. Shares of Twitter surged after Elon Musk disclosed a 9% passive stake. Starbucks slumped after Howard Schulz suspended the company's buyback program.

This week on the Basis Points podcast, Kevin Flanagan discusses a few key takeaways following the March FOMC meeting, focusing on where we believe treasury yields are headed.

In today's episode, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy George Goncalves discusses the intra-meeting price action between the last FOMC through today and spells out what to watch for in the Fed's updates for the economic outlook and rate path ahead (i.e. the dot plot). George expects the Fed to try to thread the needle as a lot of hikes are already priced-in. Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

In this episode of our Week Ahead series, we'll be looking at the main themes that will drive global markets over the coming week. In the US, it will be the March FOMC meeting, will they hike by 25bps or by 50? In Europe the big focus will be on Ukraine and Russia and the impact on energy markets. But we also have the BOE meeting and the potential for a hike and ECB watchers forum to watch. In Australia we have the RBA board minutes then Global COVID-19 trends, the Bank Indonesia meeting and China's activity data ahead.

"The Fed should acknowledge that the inflation problem is much worse than it thought when it sets its course of action and adjust course accordingly. More likely, it will stay the course—and inflation will continue to outpace its projections." ~ William J. Luther

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3JEoZ6j   - Today we look at the latest attempt by the market to piece together a rally on the hopes that a Biden-Putin summit is in the works, while  wondering what could be discussed that hasn't already been in any new talks and generally bemoaning the scale of noise in the current situation over Ukraine relative to the signal. Elsewhere, earnings season marches on, but largely winds down this week. We maintain a very defensive stance here as we await further developments, with the Fed even able to surprise on the hawkish side again if it would like to as the market has unwound most of its expectations for a 50-basis point lift-off at the March FOMC meeting.   Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

In this episode of Bitcoin Magazine's Fed Watch, CK and I catch up on the Freedom Convoy donation situation, dissect Jon Stewart's wake up call with James Hoenig, former Fed President, Fed signaling around CPI and the emergency FOMC meeting, and lastly the scandal that is brewing around Sarah Bloom Raskin's nomination being delayed. This is a longer episode where we just let the conversation go where it wants to. Fed Watch is a podcast for people interested in central bank current events. Bitcoin will consume central banks one day, understanding and documenting how that is happening, is what we are about here at Fed Watch. Crowdfunding with Bitcoin  The donation drama around GoFundMe and GiveSendGo has now spilled over to the Bitcoin fundraiser on Tallycoin. As a quick update, GiveSendGo refused to comply with the Canadian court order to freeze the Freedom Convoy funds, however, when they distributed some of the funds to Canadian bank accounts, the funds to the peaceful protestors were frozen on the bank's side. This highlights the multiple layers of censorship that the legacy financial system has, and the need for bitcoin. The honkhonkhodl fundraiser is also running into a few hiccups due to the illegal invocation of the Emergency Act in Canada. The fundraiser had to be stopped because the public faces of the campaign could become targets of the out of control Gestapo government up there.  Overall, the Tallycoin fundraiser was a great success and the community learned some very important lessons. The keys to the bitcoin have now been distributed and sending of the funds to the protestors has started. There was also a hack of the GiveSendGo campaign which doxxed 90,000 donors, the amounts they donated, and other personal information. It showed that roughly 45% of the funds came from Americans, not Canadians. This opened the door for dishonest rhetoric from the government calling it “foreign funding” of an insurrection, instead of just Americans and Canadians coming together for freedom. This rhetoric fits into the mold of the “Russia hoax” and is a sign of a government that has totally abandoned its duty to serve the people. Federal Reserve tries to explain debt-based money On the show, we watch a clip of former Kansas City Fed President, James Hoenig, trying to explain money printing to Jon Stewart. It's absolutely hilarious to watch Stewart being red pilled on the financial system in real time. I believe that Hoenig is attempting to explain it all in good faith, but makes a couple mistakes. 1) he says the Fed is the only source of money printing. That is empirically false and misleading, because commercial banks are the source of money printing when they make loans. The Fed only prints reserves, an illiquid asset. 2) Hoenig says that bitcoin is faith-based like the dollar. Instead, bitcoin is not faith-based debt like the dollar, it is a real form of commodity-backed money. The part Stewart cannot wrap his head around is, if the Fed prints money, why can't they print money to pay off all our government debt? A very important question. Hoenig tries to explain that all they can do is an asset swap (QE), where they trade an asset (the debt they are trying to get rid of) for a reserve (an illiquid replacement asset, not real money). It is confusing because Hoenig says they print money in one breath and then says they don't print money, they print debt in the next. CPI Panic The January CPI print sent shockwaves through the markets this week. Immediately, the market began pricing in an inter-meeting rate hike, and a 50 bps hike at the March FOMC meeting. The Fed played along, calling an emergency meeting that met on Monday, Feb 14th, to discuss the situation. By that time however, the market had settled down and was no longer pricing in the inter-meeting hike. There is general agreement amongst FOMC members that a March rate hike is appropriate, but that is about all they agree on. They are in the same boat as everyone else, watching the market and waiting. Sarah Bloom Raskin Delay My latest op-ed on Raskin was well-timed. We discuss the growing scandal that Senator Lummis bravely started in the Senate Banking Committee hearing last week, and which now has led to, at least, a delay in Raskin's appointment. From my article: The real fireworks started at the 1:55:50 mark, when Senator Cynthia Lummis of Wyoming, a friend of Bitcoin, took the mic and absolutely grilled Raskin about Federal Reserve master account access, and her possible indecent connection to the one and only fintech company with a master account, which received that master account while Raskin was on its board in 2018. Lummis laid out compelling circumstantial evidence that Raskin served at the Fed from 2010 to 2014, then the Treasury from 2014 to 2017. After her time in government, she joined the board of Reserve Trust in Colorado, which was denied a master account in 2017, but then was granted a master account after Raskin made a call to the St. Louis Federal Reserve on its behalf. Again, it's important to note that it is the only non-bank to be given that honor, even as dozens in Lummis' home state of Wyoming have failed to make headway in the last two-and-a-half years. A year after the master account was secured, Raskin left the board, bought out for $1.5 million. Mic drop. Sarah Bloom Raskin is a globalist pick who promises to bring a progressive political bent to the Federal Reserve. She is friends with bitcoin enemy Senator Elizabeth Warren and is the wife of highly partisan Jamie Raskin. The delay of her appointment is a silent battle in the informal fight between the globalist progressive Davos crowd and the nationalist-oriented crowd, which Powell represents. That's my take on things at least. That does it for this week. Thanks to the watchers and listeners. If you enjoy this content please SUBSCRIBE, and REVIEW on iTunes, and SHARE!

Equities retreated on Monday, extending the sell-off that began last week in the wake of the CPI report. The selling is driven in part by fears of rising inflation, in part by fears of FOMC activity after so long without, and in part by geopolitical fear centered on Russia and Ukraine. The threat of war could destabilize the already overstrained global supply chain but it looks like the powers-that-be will continue to talk, for now, while Putin slowly builds his forces along the border. This week, the PPI data will be in sharp focus as it is expected to accelerate on a month-to-month basis. The consensus is for producer level prices to rise 0.5% on top of the previous month's 0.2% and put YOY increases even closer to double-digits. The risk for the market is that PPI will come in above consensus and increase the expectations for a 50 basis point interest rate hike at the March FOMC meeting.

US equities finished higher in Wednesday trading adding to Tuesday's solid gains. The market seems to have taken some support this week from more hopeful Covid updates suggesting a move back toward normalcy. The daily case rate has dropped sharply since its peak in mid-January, with hospitalizations also coming down quickly. In addition, there has been some speculation that Thursday's widely anticipated January CPI print may come in less hot than expected, which could further dampen expectations for a 50 bp liftoff at the March FOMC meeting.

This week Real Vision's Roger Hirst uses Refinitiv's best-in-class data to look at the potential repercussions from the Fed's dovish turn at the March FOMC. Inflation is one of the primary concerns of the market at this moment, but will an aggressively loose stance again divert capital from more productive means? Distortions of capital have led to price distortions in the market. In this week's Chatter we talk to Refinitiv economist Oliver Dancel-Fiszer about the impact that the Fed's dovish turn could have on yields, inflation, and growth. See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2​ Subscribe now for more videos like this one: https://rvtv.io/2OW3mqu​ Become a member of Real Vision -- get started for 7 days for only $1: https://rvtv.io/membership​ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The March FOMC and Bank of Japan meetings were held last week. USDJPY upside has been heavy, while JPY rates have started to slowly decline after initially rising. The Nikkei Average has remained in a narrow range even while declining. On March 21, the State of Emergency in Tokyo and the surrounding prefectures was lifted, and signs of the economy normalizing have begun to appear. The BoJ recently assessed monetary easing policy and released the results at this month's meeting including adjustments to policy operations.   In today's episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido discusses the key changes to monetary policy based on the BoJ's assessment of monetary easing, as well as potential triggers for Yen rate cross-currency basis. He also shares his outlooks for Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis. Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

We get an update on the March FOMC minutes with Bloomberg News Global Economics and Policy Editor Kathleen Hays and Bloomberg Stocks Editor Dave Wilson. Steve Blitz, Chief U.S. Economist at TS Lombard, also discusses the latest Fed minutes and talks about the outlook for the economy. Dr. Ian Lustbader, Clinical Professor of Medicine at NYU, provides a coronavirus update. Bloomberg News Finance Reporter Michelle Davis breaks down why Wall Street is traders back to the office. Dan Morgan, Senior Portfolio Manager at Synovus Trust, shares his insight on questions at the top of mind for investors during the pandemic. And we Drive to the Close with Rich Weiss, Chief Investment Officer of Multi-Asset Strategies at American Century Investments. Hosts: Carol Massar and Jason Kelly. Producer: Doni Holloway. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com