Podcasts about smoot hawley act

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Best podcasts about smoot hawley act

Latest podcast episodes about smoot hawley act

Past Present Future
Ideas of Globalisation: Hoover and Smoot-Hawley (and Trump!)

Past Present Future

Play Episode Listen Later May 4, 2025 62:00


David talks to historian Gary Gerstle about the last time the Republican party got caught up in a tariffs disaster and how it changed American politics. The Smoot-Hawley Act of 1930 brought tariffs back and helped bring down both the Republican Party and the global economy. Why didn't Hoover stop it? What did the fiasco reveal about the limits of presidential power back then? And what does it suggest about the limits of presidential power today? Next time on Ideas of Globalisation: Central Banks vs the People (and Trump!) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Saving The American Dream Podcast
Market Performance in Past Periods with Tariffs

Saving The American Dream Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 24, 2025 26:52


Tariffs are back in the headlines—and so is market volatility. But is this a reason to panic or just another chapter in a long financial story? In this episode of Caffeine & Cash Flow, Michael Schulte walks through five historical periods of U.S. tariffs—from the Smoot-Hawley Act of the 1930s to recent measures under Presidents Trump and Biden—and reveals how markets performed during each era. The good news: it's not all doom and gloom. Here's some of what we discuss in this episode:

Rod Arquette Show
The Rod and Greg Show: Rep. Karianne Lisonbee on Discovery that Illegal Immigrants ARE Voting in Utah

Rod Arquette Show

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 19, 2025 88:52 Transcription Available


The Rod and Greg Show Daily Rundown – Friday, April 18, 20254:20 pm: Representative Karianne Lisonbee posted on Facebook today that Utah lawmakers have discovered proof that illegal immigrants are voting in Utah and joins Rod and Greg to discuss her call for a special session to deal with the issue.4:38 pm: Joy Pullman, Managing Editor at The Federalist, joins Rod and Greg to discuss her recent piece in which she says doctors only give children ADHD drugs as a convenience to the adults in their lives.6:05 pm: Chase Jennings, former spokesman for the Department of Homeland Security and the Office of Management and Budget during President Trump's first term joins the show for a conversation about his piece for RedState on how the Democrats new strategy is to bring illegal immigrants back to America.6:20 pm: Filmmaker T.C. Christensen joins the program to discuss his new film “Raising the Bar: The Alma Richards Story” about a former Utah resident turned Olympic track and field gold medalist.6:38 pm: We'll listen back to Rod and Greg's conversations this week with Congressman Mike Kennedy regarding his trip to Central America to visit an El Salvadoran prison, and (at 6:50 pm) with Van Mobley, a Professor of History at Concordia University-Wisconsin regarding his piece for The Federalist on how it is dishonest to compare tariffs to the Smoot-Hawley Act.

Retire In Texas
The Tariff Tug-of-War: What Investors Need to Know

Retire In Texas

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 16, 2025 19:40 Transcription Available


In this week's episode of Retire in Texas, Darryl Lyons, CEO and Co-Founder of PAX Financial Group, takes a deep dive into the complex and controversial topic of tariffs - unpacking what they are, why they exist, and how they affect not just global economies, but your personal financial plan. Darryl explores the motivations behind America's shifting tariff strategies, from supply chain security to deficit reduction, and how political perspectives, media bias, and management styles shape the broader conversation. With clear explanations, real-world examples, and a steady focus on the “why” behind the policy decisions, this episode provides the insight you need to navigate today's volatile market with more confidence. Key highlights of the episode include: • Four primary reasons tariffs are imposed - and what each means for your investments. • How political bias clouds the public discourse around trade and economic strategy. • The ripple effect of tariffs on companies like Tesla, Intel, and broader stock market behavior. • What history (and the Smoot-Hawley Act) teaches us about tariff backlash and economic recovery. • Why patience, perspective, and long-term thinking are essential in uncertain times. Whether you're watching the headlines with concern or just wondering how it all ties back to your retirement plan, this episode offers grounded, big-picture thinking for today's investors. For more insights or to connect with a PAX Financial Group advisor, visit www.PAXFinancialGroup.com. Like what you heard? Share this episode with a friend and remember - you think different when you think long term.

The Q Now
The QNow - 641 - Liberation Day

The Q Now

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 10, 2025 101:07


The hosts of "the queue now," Mark Bland and Jason Cole, marked their show's 15th anniversary, with Bland announcing the retirement of his traditional intro for a more free-flowing approach. The main topic of discussion quickly became "Liberation Day," which coincided with the implementation of new tariffs by Donald Trump. The hosts expressed significant concern about the economic fallout, drawing parallels to the historically damaging Smoot-Hawley Act. They highlighted the negative reaction in the stock market and the potential for job losses in sectors like automaking. The tariffs were portrayed as illogical and harmful to US allies, potentially driving them towards alternative partnerships, such as with China. The conversation also touched on Elon Musk's waning influence after an unsuccessful political investment and his reported upcoming departure from Trump's administration. A significant segment focused on Laura Loomer, who allegedly presented Trump with a list of disloyal government officials, leading to the firing of several individuals based on loyalty. The hosts deemed this a dangerous precedent. The latter part of the show featured an interview with Dr. Julie Scott, the current vice president running for re-election to the Wentzville School Board. Dr. Scott advocated for the importance of local elections, the Propel proposition to fund schools, and a focus on students' needs over political agendas. She voiced her frustrations with the current board's functionality and discussed the negative campaigning she had experienced. Bland and Cole strongly endorsed Dr. Scott, encouraging listeners in the Wentzville district to vote for her. The hosts identified themselves as "Midwestern moderate liberals".

TẠP CHÍ TIÊU ĐIỂM
Thuế quan toàn cầu : Trump có làm tái hiện thảm họa kinh tế tương tự năm 1930 ?

TẠP CHÍ TIÊU ĐIỂM

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 10, 2025 11:45


Ngày 02/04/2025, tổng thống Mỹ Donald Trump thông báo áp hàng loạt mức thuế cao nhắm vào hàng hóa nhập khẩu vào Mỹ. Giới chuyên gia lo lắng biện pháp bảo hộ mậu dịch này của ông Trump có nguy cơ dẫn đến suy thoái kinh tế, giá cả tăng vọt, cũng như leo thang trả đũa lẫn nhau. Trong viễn cảnh này, liệu tổng thống Trump có đang lặp lại sai lầm của năm 1930 : Kinh tế Mỹ và thế giới suy sụp do đạo luật Smoot – Hawley gây ra ? Donald Trump ngày 15/10/2024 phát biểu : « Đối với tôi, từ ngữ hay nhất trong từ điển là thuế hải quan. Đó là những từ ngữ tôi thích nhất. Thuế hải quan càng cao, chúng ta càng có nhiều cơ may các doanh nghiệp đến lập cơ sở tại Mỹ để không phải bị trả thuế hải quan. Còn có một lý thuyết khác cho rằng thuế hải quan càng cao, càng khủng khiếp, càng tệ chừng nào, các doanh nghiệp càng đến lập cơ sở nhanh chừng ấy. Khi tôi thông báo mức thuế hải quan là 10%, chỉ có 10% thôi, con số này chiếm đến nhiều trăm triệu đô la. Tất cả những điều này là nhằm giảm mức thâm hụt cán cân thương mại của Mỹ ! »McKinley : Thần tượng của Donald Trump !Tổng thống Trump luôn tin rằng áp thuế hải quan có thể làm cho « Nước Mỹ giàu có » trở lại. Niềm tin này được thể hiện rõ qua việc ông hay viện dẫn William McKinley như một điển hình. Năm 1890, khi vẫn còn là dân biểu Hạ Viện, William McKinley (trở thành tổng thống năm 1897) đã cho thông qua đạo luật « McKinley Tariff Act » khắc nghiệt, áp thuế đến 50% giá trị hàng hóa nhập khẩu.Jean-Baptiste Velut, giáo sư trường đại học Sorbonne Nouvelle, chuyên gia về lịch sử kinh tế - chính trị Mỹ, trên đài phát thanh France Culture (28/01/2025), đưa ra hai luận điểm giải thích vì sao tổng thống Trump xem McKinley như một « thần tượng ».« Thứ nhất, điều thú vị ở đây là xem cách thức chính quyền Trump, kể cả bản thân ông Trump cũng như cựu cố vấn thương mại Robert Lighthizer lấy cảm hứng và sử dụng lịch sử bảo hộ mậu dịch Mỹ như thế nào để chứng tỏ rằng cuối cùng những điều cấm kỵ về chủ nghĩa bảo hộ trong nhiều năm trước đã làm cho người ta không biết đến toàn bộ truyền thống bảo hộ của Mỹ đã tạo nên sức mạnh kinh tế của Mỹ.Điểm thứ hai, đó là khía cạnh hoài niệm của Donald Trump, vốn thích so sánh mình với nhiều tổng thống khác. Tôi tin rằng việc chọn tổng thống McKinley không phải là vô tình. Không những đây là một vị tổng thống theo chủ nghĩa bảo hộ mà còn là một người có tham vọng đế quốc. Và do vậy, điều đó giúp Donald Trump, ở một hình thức nào đó, biện minh cho những tham vọng bành trướng lãnh thổ của mình, đối với kênh đào Panama, hay quần đảo Groenland ngày nay. »Smoot – Hawley Act và cuộc Đại Khủng HoảngNhưng có lẽ ông Trump cũng quên rằng, thuế hải quan đã từng nhấn chìm nước Mỹ vào một trong những thảm họa kinh tế tồi tệ nhất trong lịch sử đất nước : Khủng hoảng kinh tế 1930 do « Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act » gây ra, đưa nước Mỹ vào thời kỳ Đại Suy Thoái.Ngược dòng thời gian, Hoa Kỳ trong những năm 1920 có nền kinh tế khá thịnh vượng. Đó là « những năm 20 sôi động », tỷ lệ thất nghiệp thấp, tăng trưởng cao và ngành công nghiệp phát triển mạnh. Duy chỉ có một lĩnh vực có nhiều dấu hiệu suy yếu : Nông nghiệp.Theo giải thích của ông Sebastien Jean, giáo sư kinh tế tại CNAM, cộng tác viên cho Viện Quan hệ Quốc tế và Chiến lược (IRIS), với trang HuffingtonPost, « ngành nông nghiệp Mỹ trong suốt những năm 1920 cho thấy có dấu hiệu trì trệ do giá cả sụt giảm, ảnh hưởng nghiêm trọng đến cơ cấu ngành bởi sự biến động của những năm tháng chiến tranh. Trước đó là quãng thời gian mà ngành nông nghiệp Mỹ phát triển đáng kể, chủ yếu là vì phải nuôi sống châu Âu, đang trong cảnh chiến tranh (Đệ nhất thế chiến). Nhưng khi chiến tranh kết thúc, châu Âu đã lấy lại sản xuất và ngành nông nghiệp của họ rơi vào tình trạng dư thừa sản xuất kéo dài. »Giới nông gia Mỹ rơi vào khủng hoảng kinh tế. Để ứng phó, Quốc Hội Mỹ năm 1922 thông qua luật Fordney – McCumber, lần đầu tiên tăng thuế hải quan, nhưng chỉ giới hạn ở hàng công nghiệp. Ông Herbert Hoover, thuộc đảng Cộng Hòa, khi vận động tranh cử đã dùng lại ý tưởng được hậu thuẫn bởi những người vận động hành lang cho các nhà sản xuất nông nghiệp, cho rằng nông dân đang chịu thiệt thòi do cạnh tranh quốc tế. Ông đề nghị áp thuế hải quan đối với nông sản nhập khẩu ngay khi đắc cử năm 1929.Dưới sự thôi thúc từ hai nghị sĩ đảng Cộng Hòa là Willis Hawley và Reed Smoot, Quốc Hội Lưỡng Viện đã đồng thuận về mức thuế trung bình là 40% nhắm vào khoảng 20 nghìn loại hàng hóa nhập khẩu, nhưng không chỉ đối với nông sản mà mở rộng sang cả sản phẩm công nghiệp. Quyết định này của chính quyền Hoover đã bị chỉ trích mạnh mẽ trong và ngoài nước.Bất chấp thư ngỏ tập thể của hơn 1.000 kinh tế gia, cảnh báo rằng « việc thông qua các biện pháp bảo hộ này sẽ là một sai lầm », có thể dẫn đến tình trạng giá cả tăng cao cho người tiêu thụ, và mức sống của người dân bị sụt giảm, cũng như là sự phản đối từ khoảng 20 chính phủ các nước, dự luật Smoot – Hawley vẫn được thông qua vào đầu năm 1930.Đại chiến thương mại thế giới và làn sóng bảo hộ mậu dịchĐáng chú ý là văn bản luật này ra đời vào một thời điểm khá nhạy cảm : Vụ sụp đổ thị trường chứng khoán Mỹ, « ngày thứ Năm đen tối » 24/10/1929, đã bắt đầu cho thấy có những tác động đầu tiên đối với nền kinh tế Mỹ : Nhà xưởng lần lượt đóng cửa khiến hàng triệu người dân Mỹ rơi vào cảnh thất nghiệp.Không những ngành nông nghiệp Mỹ chẳng hưởng được lợi gì từ thuế hải quan, mà chính sách bảo hộ của Mỹ đã châm ngòi cho cơn sốt bảo hộ mậu dịch. Các đối tác thương mại của Washington tăng cường trả đũa với nhiều chiến lược khác nhau, từ tăng thuế hải quan, tẩy chay, hay áp đặt hạn ngạch (quota) nhập khẩu hàng Mỹ.Cuộc chiến thương mại này đã làm chao đảo nền kinh tế thế giới, các hoạt động trao đổi thương mại sụt giảm đến hơn 40%. Tuy nhiên, ông Eric Monnet, kinh tế gia, giáo sư sử học tại EHESS, và trường Kinh tế Paris, trên trang Economie Alternative, trích dẫn một nghiên cứu xa xưa do BarryEichengreen và Douglas A. Irwin thực hiện, nêu lên một chi tiết thú vị là cuộc chiến bảo hộ này không chỉ đáp trả Mỹ mà còn thúc đẩy các nước đi theo con đường bảo hộ giống như Mỹ.Chỉ có điều, như ghi nhận từ Bertrand Blancheton, chuyên gia về lịch sử kinh tế thế giới, đại học Bordeaux, khi trả lời kênh truyền hình France 24, trong cuộc đọ sức này, và với việc bùng phát cơn sốt bảo hộ, tất cả các bên đều bị thiệt do tăng trưởng thế giới bị chững lại : « Chính quyền Hoover nghĩ rằng các nước khác sẽ không phản ứng, nhưng họ đã có những hành động trả đũa thương mại. Cuộc chiến thương mại thực sự này đã dẫn đến tình trạng gần như tự cung tự cấp cho đến khi Đệ Nhị Thế Chiến nổ ra. »Đạo luật Smoot-Hawley, một « đạo luật kinh tế ngu xuẩn », theo như chỉ trích từ Henry Ford, nhà sáng lập thương hiệu ô tô nổi tiếng tại Mỹ, đã làm cho cuộc khủng hoảng kinh tế Mỹ 1929 thêm trầm trọng. Chính sách bảo hộ này của Mỹ được cho là một trong những tác nhân chính gây ra cuộc Đại Suy Thoái, góp phần thúc đẩy một cuộc suy thoái mới le lói xuất hiện thành một cuộc khủng hoảng toàn cầu, kéo dài hàng thập kỷ.Trump Act và sự tương đồng với các chính sách cuối thế kỷ XIXTheo giải thích của nhà sử học Jean-Baptiste Velut, trường đại học Sorbonne Nouvelle ,với trang HuffingtonPost, « đạo luật này đã có những tác động tàn phá. Bởi vì, thông qua các tác động gián tiếp, nhiều cường quốc khác, đến phiên họ, đã khép cửa thị trường của mình. Và dần dần từng chút một, kinh tế và thương mại thế giới đã bị mất đến 2/3 giá trị của mình ».Một số sử gia thậm chí còn tin rằng, « Smoot – Hawley Tariff Act » đã góp sức cho sự trỗi dậy của chủ nghĩa Đức Quốc xã, dẫn đến Đệ Nhị Thế Chiến. Tuy nhiên, nhà sử học Jean-Baptiste Velut, trên đài France Culture, cho rằng đây vẫn còn là điều gây nhiều tranh cãi:« Một số nghiên cứu cho thấy rằng về cơ bản, khủng hoảng tài chính là gốc rễ của cuộc khủng hoảng kinh tế Mỹ và thế giới. Nhiều nghiên cứu khác quả thực chỉ ra rằng thuế quan rất cao đã làm trầm trọng thêm các vấn đề về khủng hoảng. Điều thú vị là đạo luật Smoot – Hawley đã trở thành một dạng tội đồ trong lịch sử kinh tế nước Mỹ và dưới góc độ biểu tượng, đạo luật này đã ám ảnh các cuộc tranh luận về tự do mậu dịch và nền ngoại giao Mỹ. »Dù vậy, sử gia về kinh tế Mỹ, Bertrand Blancheton, trả lời France 24, cũng tỏ ra cẩn trọng khi so sánh những gì diễn ra năm 1930 với tình hình hiện nay.« Tốt hơn là nên so sánh những gì chúng ta đang trải qua hiện nay với cuối thế kỷ XIX, từ năm 1880 đến năm 1914. Vào thời kỳ đó, Mỹ có những chính sách thương mại rất tinh vi và phân biệt đối xử. Ý tưởng là nhắm vào một quốc gia, sản phẩm cụ thể và đàm phán. Trong lịch sử kinh tế đương đại, kể từ cuộc cách mạng công nghiệp, có những thời điểm mà người ta tự do hóa và lúc khác họ siết chặt chính sách thương mại bằng cách tái lập thuế hải quan. Nhìn chung, đó là những kỳ kéo dài trong khoảng từ 30 đến 40 năm mỗi lần như thế. »Trump có sẽ cùng cảnh ngộ như Hoover ?Các mức thuế quan mới mà Donald Trump đưa ra, được cho là sẽ mở ra một « thời kỳ hoàng kim » cho nước Mỹ, nhưng lại có nguy cơ khiến các hộ gia đình Mỹ sẽ phải trả giá đắt. Một thăm dò do hãng tin Anh Reuters/Ipsos thực hiện cho thấy, 70% số người Mỹ được hỏi nghĩ rằng tăng thuế hải quan sẽ dẫn đến tăng giá thực phẩm và hàng hóa tiêu dùng hiện nay.Trong những năm 1930, tổng thống Hoover đã phải trả giá cho chính sách thuế quan. Trong cuộc bầu cử tổng thống năm 1932, vì không thể hóa giải được những tác động của cuộc khủng hoảng, tổng thống Cộng Hòa đã bị ứng viên Dân chủ Franklin D. Roosevelt đánh bại nặng nề.Chỉ còn 18 tháng nữa là đến kỳ bầu cử giữa kỳ, đảng Cộng Hòa cũng phần nào lo lắng vì đảng này chiếm đa số sít sao ở Thượng Viện và Hạ Viện. Vào lúc thị trường chứng khoán Mỹ và thế giới hoảng loạn, tổng thống Mỹ Donald Trump vẫn kiên định lập trường, không thay đổi chính sách thuế quan nặng nề.Thứ Tư 02/04, khi thông báo áp mức thuế mới chống lại nhiều nước, Donald Trump đã tuyên bố rằng Đại Khủng Hoảng những năm 1930 có lẽ sẽ không xảy ra nếu như việc áp thuế quan vẫn được tiếp tục. « Vào năm 1929, mọi việc đã kết thúc đột ngột cùng với cuộc Đại suy Thoái, và điều đó có lẽ sẽ không bao giờ diễn ra nếu như họ vẫn trung thành với chính sách thuế quan, lịch sử đã có thể rất khác ! »Hơn 90 năm sau ngày ban hành luật Smoot – Hawley, liệu rằng lịch sử có sẽ tái diễn ?

The Brian Mudd Show
Q&A – How Long Do Bear Markets Last & How Low Do Stocks Go?

The Brian Mudd Show

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 8, 2025 8:30 Transcription Available


The knee jerk reaction would be to tie this bear market to the infamous Smoot-Hawley Act of 1930 during the Great Depression because that was all about tariffs too.

Brownfield Ag News
Trade war fears hit soybean prices | Weekly Commodity Market Update

Brownfield Ag News

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 8, 2025 15:35


This week Will and Ben check the pulse of trade and tariff discussions' impact on crop markets.Market recap (changes on week as of Friday's close): » May 2025 corn up $.07 at $4.60» December 2025 corn up $.04 at $4.46» May 2025 soybeans down $.46 at $9.77» November 2025 soybeans down $.45 at $9.84» May soybean oil up 0.68 cents at 45.84 cents/lb» May soybean meal down $10.40 at $283.10/short ton» May wheat up $.01 at $5.29» July 2025 wheat flat at $5.42» May 2025 cotton down 3.54 cents at 63.36 cents/lb» December 2025 cotton down 3.93 cents at 66.16 cents/lb» May 2025 rough rice down $0.44 at $13.075/cwt» September 2025 rough rice down $0.405 at $13.350/cwt» May WTI Crude Oil down $7.29 at $61.99/barrelWeekly highlights:U.S. job openings fell slightly in February to 7.6 million versus 7.7 million in January 2025 and down from expectations of 7.7 million. New openings have fallen steadily from the peak of 12 million in 2022.The U.S. added a larger-than-expected 228,000 jobs in March- up from 117,000 in February and expectations of 140,000. The unemployment rate did tick higher to 4.2% vs 4.1% last month.Energy stocks were mixed on the week. U.S. crude oil and distillate fuel stocks were higher 258.9 and 11.1 million gallons, respectively. U.S. gasoline stocks were down 65.1 million gallons. U.S. motor fuel demand was 2% week over week and down 4% from recent levels.US ethanol production increased slightly to 313 million gallons produced- up from 310 million gallons. Ethanol stocks fell 31 million gallons.Weekly export sales of 46.2, 15.1, and 12.5 million bushels were reported for corn, soybeans, and wheat, respectively. The wheat sales exceeded pre-report expectations. Rice export sales fell to 0.7 million cwt from 2.2 million the week prior.Open interest in futures and options of grains and oilseeds was up 4.5% week over week. Producers and merchants increased their net short 8,959 contracts while money manager decreased their net short position 4,559 contracts.Weekly grain and oilseed exports were mixed- corn and soybean export inspections of 62.3 and 29.6 million bushels, respectively were on the top end of expectations; while wheat inspections of 12.3 million were on the low end of pre-report expectations.The first corn planting progress report of the year showed 2% of the nations corn had been planted- matching normal and pre-report expectations.U.S. winter wheat conditions were 48% good to excellent- slightly higher than the 47% pre-report expectations. The crop was rated 56% good to excellent this time last year.Topics:» Market recap» General tariff impacts» Smoot Hawley Act of 1930» China's retaliatory tariffs impact on soybeans» Further acreage changes ahead of planting» Rainy weather and wet conditions» Reports to watchConnect with Brownfield Ag News:» Get the latest ag news: https://www.brownfieldagnews.com/» Subscribe to Brownfield on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@BrownfieldAgNews» Follow Brownfield on X (Twitter): https://x.com/brownfield» Follow Brownfield on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/BrownfieldAgNewsAbout Brownfield Ag News:Brownfield Ag News is your trusted source for reliable agriculture news, market trends, weather updates, and expert interviews. Get comprehensive coverage and stay ahead in the ever-evolving agriculture industry.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

5 in 5 with ANZ
Friday: Stocks fall 4-5% after tariff shock

5 in 5 with ANZ

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 3, 2025 9:55


US stocks, bond yields and the US dollar are down sharply after Donald Trump unveiled much higher than expected tariffs. Investors fear a US recession and higher inflation. Australia though may fare better, with gold exempted, and beef prices high. In our bonus deep dive interview, I spoke with ANZ Senior International Economist Tom Kenny late last night about what would be an unprecedented rise in US tariffs to higher than levels seen after the Smoot Hawley Act of 1930. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Palisade Radio
Jeffrey Christian: The Tariff Trap – Navigating the Road to Recession and Inflation

Palisade Radio

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 4, 2025 71:26


Tom Bodrovics, welcomes back Jeff Christian, Managing Partner of CPM Group, for a thought-provoking episode. The conversation begins around the far-reaching implications of tariffs on markets, industries, and economies. Tariffs are not one-size-fits-all, with their impact hinging on both the specific country and metal involved. Jeff expresses his disdain for tariffs, citing their detrimental effects on economic activity and inflation. The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 serves as a cautionary tale, illustrating the devastating consequences on imports, exports, and both the US economy and the global marketplace during the Great Depression. The threat of retaliation could trigger a US recession, while gold and silver might experience heightened demand due to market uncertainty. Tariffs involve importers bearing added costs, instigating inflation, complicating international trade, and affecting base metals. Two potential solutions for government funding - Value Added Tax (VAT) and gold-backed bonds - are examined, yet concerns over regressiveness, economic downturns, and practicality linger. Central banks have turned to gold as a means of securing dollar reserves amid past economic instability under the gold standard. Recent geopolitical developments have prompted some Eastern European countries to stockpile gold for safety against external pressures like Russia. The surge in demand for physical gold within the US is accompanied by a transition from London to New York, giving rise to borrowing and EFP premiums as markets grapple with economic and political uncertainties. Jeff discusses the problems inherent in all financial system and why those problems would also exist under a gold standard. He argues that the Fed has played an important role in reducing the severity of economic contractions. However, he cautions that the only financial system in history that has not failed is this the current one. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:50 - Tariff Discussion12:10 - Impacts on Metals?14:38 - Various Scenarios19:58 - Inflationary/Recessionary26:03 - Fast Track U.S. Industry?28:13 - Effects on Currencies?31:13 - Recession Outlook?36:00 - Appalling Statistics38:00 - Income Tax & Trump42:07 - A Gold Backed Bond?45:49 - Fed & Depressions52:13 - C.B. Gold Reserves56:39 - CPM Client Concerns?59:55 - EFP Premiums & Supply1:07:48 - Reality & Forecast1:10:00 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode Tariffs' detrimental effects on economic activity and inflation are discussed, with Smoot-Hawley Act as a historical reference. Central banks turn to gold as a hedge against economic instability; some countries stockpile for geopolitical safety. US recession potential and increased demand for gold and silver due to tariff uncertainty. Guest LinksTwitter: https://twitter.com/CPMGroupLLCWebsite: https://www.cpmgroup.com/Questions Email: info@cpmgroup.comYouTube Link: https://www.youtube.com/c/CPMGroup/videos Jeffrey Christian is the Managing Partner of the CPM Group. He is considered one of the most knowledgeable experts on precious metals markets, commodities in general, and financial engineering, using options for hedging and investing purposes. He is the author of Commodities Rising 2006. Jeffrey Christian has been a prominent analyst and advisor on precious metals and commodities markets since the 1970s, with work spanning precious metals, energy markets, base metals, agricultural markets, and economic analysis. The company was founded in 1986, spinning off the Commodities Research Group from Goldman, Sachs & Co and its commodities trading arm, J. Aron & Company. He has advised many of the world's largest corporations and institutional investors on managing their commodities price and market exposures and providing advisory services to the World Bank, United Nations, International Monetary Fund, and numerous governments.

Franklin (MA) Matters
FM #1206 - Making Sense Of Climate #44 - 05/14/24

Franklin (MA) Matters

Play Episode Listen Later May 20, 2024 39:28


This session of the radio show shares my conversation with Ted McIntyre, Franklin resident and climate activist. We met to record in the Franklin TV & Public Radio studio on Tuesday, May 14, 2024. We continued making sense of climate by working our way from the trade restrictions on electronic vehicles (EVs) just announced to transportation issues, walking, biking and then briefly to zoning as a means to change our world for more sustainable living.This discussion continues our journey understanding the MA roadmap toward net zero and while it helps me “make sense of climate”, we hope it helps with your understanding as well. If you have climate questions or Franklin specific climate questions, send them in and we'll try to answer them in a future session. The conversation runs about 39 minutes. Let's listen to my conversation with Ted.--------------Trade restrictions on EV https://www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/may/14/joe-biden-tariff-chinese-made-electric-vehicles White House fact sheet https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/05/14/fact-sheet-president-biden-takes-action-to-protect-american-workers-and-businesses-from-chinas-unfair-trade-practices/ Smoot Hawley Act https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smoot%E2%80%93Hawley_Tariff_ActCHIPS Act https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CHIPS_and_Science_Act International Monetary Fund on Border Carbon Adjustmentshttps://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2021/09/24/Border-Carbon-Adjustments-Rationale-Design-and-Impact-466176 Building Equitable Neighborhoods for Franklin (www.BEN4Franklin.org/ )Audio mentioned during #44 https://www.franklinmatters.org/2024/05/building-equitable-neighborhoods-for_01632997446.html ** See the page that collects all the “Making Sense of Climate” episodes -> https://www.franklinmatters.org/2022/02/making-sense-of-climate-collection.html --------------We are now producing this in collaboration with Franklin.TV and Franklin Public Radio (wfpr.fm) or 102.9 on the Franklin area radio dial. This podcast is my public service effort for Franklin but we can't do it alone. We can always use your help.How can you help?If you can use the information that you find here, please tell your friends and neighborsIf you don't like something here, please let me knowThrough this feedback loop we can continue to make improvements.

Two Minutes in Trade
Two Minutes in Trade - It's Deja-Vous, All Over Again with Increased Tariffs Floated as a Campaign Platform

Two Minutes in Trade

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 23, 2023 3:23


Everything old is new again - and the idea of assessing across the board tariffs of 10% or more is reminiscent of the Smoot-Hawley Act & look what that got us. Listen for more details on today's Two Minutes In Trade.

Instant Trivia
Episode 510 - Acts Of Congress - Animal Noises - The 12 Days Of Christmas - Tv Puppets - Education

Instant Trivia

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 5, 2022 7:26


Welcome to the Instant Trivia podcast episode 510, where we ask the best trivia on the Internet. Round 1. Category: Acts Of Congress 1: 1930's Smoot-Hawley Act raised these to protect American farmers. tariffs. 2: (I'm Geoffrey Canada, President of the Harlem Children's Zone.) Setting standards and establishing measurable goals to improve individual outcomes in education was the objective of this 2001 congressional act that left many educators dismayed. No Child Left Behind. 3: This act of 1964 established the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission. the Civil Rights Act. 4: This act of 1964 established the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission. the Civil Rights Act. 5: An act passed March 3, 1863 established this, the subject of riots in New York that July. drafts. Round 2. Category: Animal Noises 1: Mexican peninsula, or the sound of a sheep laughing. Baja. 2: To ingest your Thanksgiving turkey quickly. gobble it up. 3: Audio components whose job sound like they could be done by dogs and birds. woofer and tweeters. 4: The Pacific equivalent of Atlantis. Mu. 5: In "A Day at the Races", Hugo Hackenbush is one. quack. Round 3. Category: The 12 Days Of Christmas 1: These 3 birds are the gifts for the first 3 days. French hens, turtle doves, and a partridge in a pear tree. 2: Of the song's 12 gifts, it's the only one you could melt down and not be charged with murder or animal cruelty. five golden rings. 3: We found this eighth day's gift quite moo-ving. maids a-milking. 4: On the 10th day, nobility abounded as my true love somehow thought I needed this gift. lords a-leapin'. 5: On the 12th day, my true love gave me this gift, something Charlie Watts could enjoy. twelve drummers drumming. Round 4. Category: Tv Puppets 1: Mallory Tarcher has had a hand in continuing Lamb Chop, created by this woman, her mother. Shari Lewis. 2: Known as the Foster Imposters, a puppet pair of these animals want to be Foster Farms products. chickens. 3: In 1989 NBC had this alien help host the Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade. ALF. 4: Humans on this 2002 Fox puppet series include Sarah Silverman and Seth Green. Greg the Bunny. 5: On "Unhappily Ever After", he supplied the voice of Mr. Floppy. Bobcat Goldthwait. Round 5. Category: Education 1: In 1955 Rudolph Flesch wrote "Why Johnny Can't" do this, attacking current teaching practices. read. 2: At the urging of this president, the Department of Education became a cabinet department in 1979. (Jimmy) Carter. 3: Back in 1987 Aspen College began offering an MBA degree online, MBA standing for this. master's of business administration. 4: Common term for the system that emerged in the '60s to teach more mathematical concepts and fewer times tables. the New Math. 5: In 1980 the Department of Education was created out of this now-defunct Cabinet department. HEW. Thanks for listening! Come back tomorrow for more exciting trivia!

Instant Trivia
Episode 277 - People In Entertainment - Kelly Girls - Trails - The Atlantic Ocean - Acts Of Congress

Instant Trivia

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 14, 2021 7:41


Welcome to the Instant Trivia podcast episode 277, where we ask the best trivia on the Internet. Round 1. Category: People In Entertainment 1: Educated at L.A.'s Lycee Francais and on film sets, this star of "Taxi Driver" graduated from Yale in 1985. Jodie Foster. 2: TV's Ally McBeal, she had viewers concerned about her weight in '98. Calista Flockhart. 3: This country singer of "Shut Up And Kiss Me" and "Passionate Kisses" has kissed off the hyphen in her 1st name. Mary Chapin Carpenter. 4: In 1995 Edgar Bronfman Jr., president of this Canadian distiller, took over Universal Studios. Seagrams. 5: This director left a party at the American embassy in Paris in 1998 after being reminded that he could be arrested. Roman Polanski. Round 2. Category: Kelly Girls 1: She could title her autobiography "I Married a Sweathog" as she is Mrs. John Travolta. Kelly Preston. 2: As runner-up in the first edition of this show, Kelly Wiglesworth won $100,000. Survivor. 3: Former "Baywatch" lifeguard Kelly Packard joined Dean Cain on this TBS series. Ripley's Believe It or Not!. 4: Hayley Vaughan Cortlandt McIntyre Santos Santos on "All My Children", she now has a talk show gig. Kelly Ripa. 5: She's best known for her role as Matt Dillon's wife in "Drugstore Cowboy". Kelly Lynch. Round 3. Category: Trails 1: It's an assortment of nuts, seeds and dried fruits eaten by hikers. Trail mix. 2: You'd have to walk over 2,000 miles to go end to end on this east coast national scenic trail. Appalachian Trail. 3: The trail of Daniel Boone's Wilderness Road took it through this famous gap. Cumberland Gap. 4: From the Dutch for a "track", it's a trail left by an animal. Spoor. 5: The Wonderland Trail circles this Washington peak. Mount Rainier. Round 4. Category: The Atlantic Ocean 1: This expensive treat may be the eggs of the north Atlantic lumpfish; read the label!. Caviar. 2: Of the Earth's oceans, the Atlantic ranks here in size. Second. 3: In 1932 she crossed the Atlantic alone in 13 hours, 30 minutes. Amelia Earhart. 4: In July 1866 one of these was laid across the Atlantic by the Great Eastern Steamer. Cable. 5: This "sea" that lies between the Azores and the West Indies is named for the brown gulfweed floating in it. Sargasso Sea. Round 5. Category: Acts Of Congress 1: Britain couldn't afford to pay cash for war materials much longer, so FDR proposed this alliterative act in December 1940. the Lend-Lease Act. 2: Britain couldn't afford to pay cash for war materials much longer, so FDR proposed this alliterative act in December 1940. the Lend-Lease Act. 3: 1930's Smoot-Hawley Act raised these to protect American farmers. tariffs. 4: (I'm Geoffrey Canada, President of the Harlem Children's Zone.) Setting standards and establishing measurable goals to improve individual outcomes in education was the objective of this 2001 congressional act that left many educators dismayed. No Child Left Behind. 5: In 1893 the anti-mangling activism of Lorenzo Coffin got Congress to mandate the air type of these on railroad cars. brakes. Thanks for listening! Come back tomorrow for more exciting trivia!

Bakes Takes
Bakes' Takes podcast - Episode 12 - 5/27/20

Bakes Takes

Play Episode Listen Later May 27, 2020 24:11


Bakes’ Takes Podcast Show Notes –Saturday May 23, 2020 Mike, I’m sorry. I was wrong, cost you money, the opposite of why I do this. Didn’t foresee Shops, still think ad revenue going down more than Shops upside, but the market has spoken. Working harder to make up for this. Watch time frames. Week not important. 321.86—295.48, -8%. Volume still light on up days. Seems tired. If big volume breakout close above 303, August ’19 resistance then suggests new bull market. 3:09I will explain support and resistance as if you can’t see the SPY charts I am referencing. Climbing stairs/escalator. Then down the elevator. 4 years months up, 1 month down. 5:30https://www.wsj.com/articles/tencent-levels-up-as-china-hunkers-down-11589379005 by Jacky WongRelates to potential EUM investment (short MSCI Emerging Markets). China, Taiwan, Korea. BABA, TCHEY, TSM9:05https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-sends-warships-to-support-malaysia-in-south-china-sea-amid-china-pressure-11589382717 by Niharika MandhanaChina claims nearly all of the South China see and objects to oil-and-gas operations that don’t involve Beijing. Lost tribunal claim—Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, Taiwan, Philippines. 3 U.S. naval ships.10:05https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2020/05/14/america-files-a-new-financial-salvo-at-beijingTariffs, blame for Covid-19, now Trump Administration rid American exchange of Chinese stocks.10:50https://www.economist.com/asia/2020/05/21/china-punishes-australia-for-promoting-an-inquiry-into-covid-19China’s ambassador to Australia, Cheng Jingye, recently warned Australia it was treading a “dangerous” path by pressing for an independent inquiry into the origins of the coronavirus (one that might reveal China doing more to suppress information about early infections than to quash the outbreak itself). If relations between the two countries soured, Mr. Cheng threatened, Chinese tourists might have “second thoughts” about holidaying Down Under. Families might wonder whether Australia really was the “best place to send their kids” to study. Ordinary Chinese might no longer want to “drink Australian wine, eat Australian beef”.In the event, China this week agreed to an inquiry, in the face of international pressure at the World Health Organisation’s annual assembly (held online). But it did so after slapping tariffs of over 80% on Australian barley on May 18th, having already banned beef from Australia’s four biggest abattoirs on May 12th.11:35https://www.barrons.com/articles/chinas-hard-line-on-hong-kong-what-it-means-for-u-s-investors-51590166402?mod=past_editions by Reshma Kapadia12:07https://www.barrons.com/articles/just-as-rays-of-hope-were-appearing-china-tensions-flare-51589590940?mod=past_editions by Randall ForsythAt the same time, another big threat emerged, as U.S.-China tensions escalated. The Commerce Department on Friday curtailed Huawei Technologies’ access to semiconductors that use U.S. technology. That led Global Times editor Hu Xijin—widely seen as speaking for Beijing—to tweet that China could retaliate against U.S. companies, such as Qualcomm (ticker: QCOM), Cisco Systems (CSCO), Apple (AAPL), or Boeing (BA).In addition, the Trump administration ordered the federal employee retirement fund not to invest in an index that includes Chinese companies that, it warned, could be sanctioned for “culpable actions for the Chinese government with respect to the global spread” of the coronavirus.Indeed, China is viewed with antipathy by Republicans and Democrats alike in this election year, Greg Valliere, chief U.S. strategist for AGF Investments, writes in a client note. “So, during the campaign, there will be a competition to see who can be the most anti-China,” he predicts.An escalating trade war during what might be a depression? Haven’t we seen this movie before? And didn’t we hate its ending?The Smoot-Hawley Act increased tariffs on foreign imports to the U.S. by about 20%. At least 25 countries responded by increasing their own tariffs on American goods. Global trade plummeted, contributing to the ill effects of the Great Depression. Sep 5, 2019The Fed isn’t buying just Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, but also corporate debt through the bond market and exchange-traded funds, including those that deal in speculative-grade debt.This reflects the change in how credit works in the real world. Instead of Fed asset purchases putting more reserves into the banks so they can make loans, monetary policy now works largely via the financial markets.The central bank has gone light years beyond what’s in elementary economics textbooks to combat the economic slide, expanding its balance sheet by $2.6 trillion since early March to $6.9 trillion, including initial purchases of $305 million in corporate bond ETFs.12:27

AERC 2019
Henry Hazlitt's Long-Term Economic Thinking: Foundation of Entrepreneurial Excellence

AERC 2019

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 25, 2019


The Henry Hazlitt Memorial Lecture, sponsored by Hunter Lewis. Recorded at the Mises Institute on March 22, 2019. Includes an introduction by Joseph T. Salerno. The Austrian Economics Research Conference is the international, interdisciplinary meeting of the Austrian School, bringing together leading scholars doing research in this vibrant and influential intellectual tradition. The conference is hosted by the Mises Institute at its campus in Auburn, Alabama, and is directed by Joseph Salerno, professor of economics at Pace University and academic vice president of the Mises Institute. Lecture Text: In 1946, a book named Economics in One Lesson was written by a man who did not think it would have a great impact beyond the economic fallacies of his day. That amazing man was Henry Hazlitt. Now over one million copies have been sold and it remains in print. It is a personal honor to lecture about Hazlitt: He is one of my favorite writers on economics, political economy, and ethics. Economics in One Lesson, which was based in part on Bastiat's essay, “What Is Seen and What Is Not Seen,” debunks the most prominent economic fallacies of the past and the present, summing up economics as long-term versus ephemeral thinking. He wrote more than twenty books and was the principal editorial writer on finance and economics for The New York Times for twelve years and a columnist for Newsweek for twenty years. More importantly, his writing was thoughtful, incisive, and influential, and he played a significant role in supporting, introducing, and explaining the ideas of Mises and also Hayek. He is a stellar example of the impact one person can have on our society. My mentor, Dr. Bill Peterson (a student and colleague of Mises) and his wife Mary were good friends of Hazlitt, so although I never met Henry, I did receive first-hand knowledge of his life and work from the Petersons. I am thankful to Laura Bennett Peterson, Bill and Mary Peterson's daughter, for assisting me with this lecture. Laura grew up knowing Hazlitt and she has been exceptionally helpful with her knowledge and insights about him. Dr. Peterson was very complimentary of Hazlitt's writing and personal courage, especially when he opposed the Bretton Woods agreement. Hazlitt knew Bretton Woods would cause inflation. The New York Times had no interest in criticizing this agreement, and that sent Hazlitt looking for a new job. Hulsmann indicates in Mises: The Last Knight of Liberalism that Hazlitt may have been one of Mises' first close American friends. In 1940, Hazlitt received a call from “Mises speaking,” and he described the encounter as if “John Stuart Mill were speaking.” This was the beginning of a long-term friendship between Hazlitt and Mises. By explaining economic theory, Hazlitt enabled many entrepreneurs to think clearly and correctly. Most of the time the world promotes compliance with existing ideas and punishes critical thinking and new ideas. This was Germany's mentality in the early 20th century, Mises was treated miserably because of what he thought; this is common today. Profound thinkers are rarely appreciated and often scorned. Today we are witnessing this in our universities, which were created for thinkers but now suppress original thoughts. This talk focuses on three of Hazlitt's central concerns: His book, The Foundations of Morality, established a high standard of morality. Current events demonstrate a widespread lack of morality in our society.His book, Thinking as a Science, elevates thinking to a new level. Today everyone is “thinking outside of the box.” The problem is, most people are not thinking most of the time.His book, Economics in One Lesson, introduces us to classical-liberal thinking, which is foreign to most Americans He wisely pointed out, along with Mises, that economics “is a description, explanation, or analysis of the determinants, consequences, and implications of human action and human choice.” Hazlitt's economic thinking is thus grounded on human behavior. The recent gyrations of the stock market, based on fears of tariffs or higher interest rates, illustrate how markets react in real time to the effects of current policies. Hazlitt was a giant in financial journalism, as noted in Jim Grant's Hazlitt lecture. But Hazlitt was also a public intellectual with unique insights on morality, thinking, and political economy. We will begin with Hazlitt's understanding of morality as embodying long-term thinking, his foundational theme. This is his most powerful message. Morality For Hazlitt, “morality is essentially, not the subordination of the ‘individual' to ‘society' but the subordination of immediate objectives to long-term ones.” Hazlitt realized that the long-term interests of the individual would serve the long-term interests of society. The long-term interests of the individual depend on social cooperation, as Hazlitt points out: “Social cooperation is the foremost means by which the majority of us attain most of our ends.” (The Foundations of Morality, 13) CAS stresses cooperation as the primary way we can progress as a company. It can be challenging and requires humility. We witness the parade of lobbyists seeking government favors: lobbyists from GM, the U.S. steel industry and Tesla, to name just a few. I might add our universities to this list, since the federal government helps to fund their excessive spending. These companies and institutions are rent seekers and tariff promoters. German and Asian automakers, which also manufacture in America, received no bailouts and don't want tariffs. In fact, BMW exports 75 percent of the SUVs it makes in South Carolina. Hazlitt reminds us to let the market decide, as “dying industries absorb labor and capital that should be released for growing industries.” Hazlitt believed that bailouts and tariffs are short-term solutions to long-term industry problems. Hazlitt's concept of morality can be summed up in two of his own sentences: “The conduct we call moral is the conduct we consider likely to lead to the most satisfactory situation in the long run.” And “immoral action is nearly always short-sighted action.” These important principles are lost on our society today. The challenge for entrepreneurs: We must focus on the long term in spite of tremendous pressure to think only over the short term. Markets are very competitive, and sometimes promote short-term thinking and solutions. But we know, short-term decisions can be very costly in the long run. It is imperative to teacher our students about Hazlitt. Many domestic steel manufacturers raised prices over this past year even higher than the steel tariffs. It did not work, Users take notice and take action. In the long term our domestic steel industry will be harmed by tariffs. This is human action in the marketplace. We are witnessing a parade of successful entrepreneurs, as well as leaders in all walks of life, fall from grace because they lacked morality. These individuals may have brilliant ideas, but they lost sight of the long term and failed to learn Hazlitt's most important lesson on morality: High integrity is required for the sustainability of an enterprise over the long term. Our society promotes and praises loud and unethical leaders such as Elizabeth Holmes, Elon Musk, but companies and investors suffer. Companies suffer because of these unethical individuals in charge: think of VW, Lehman Brothers, Tesla, and now Boeing. Conversely, Warren Buffet is not an Austrian Economist but he is an excellent investor, capital allocator has an exceptional reputation for honesty and became rich in the long run. Companies and Investors flock to him. The market requires moral leaders because the market cannot function without integrity. In addition to morality, Hazlitt makes the need for freedom very clear: This freedom applies to entrepreneurs: In order to have the freedom to succeed, we must have the freedom to fail. For Hazlitt, capitalism allows for freedom, It does not hinder freedom: Modern capitalism is not an inevitable or inescapable system but one that has been chosen by Americans. It is a system of freedom. In America, some 300 million people produce 24 percent of the world's goods. America leads the world in innovation, which is the essence of American exceptionalism. Too Many countries undermine freedom and the results are clear. The EU has slow growth and high unemployment. In Venezuela, freedom is denied to the point of starvation. There is concern that the free market creates inequities and failures. But Hazlitt points out that “a free-market system tends to give to every social group, and to every individual within each group, the value of what it or he has contributed to production.” Hazlitt sums it up perfectly. Socialists refuse to understand free markets. They fail to see that production is based on incentives, not coercion. Some politicians live off the fat of the land but hate producers, freedom and success. It would be entertaining to read what Hazlitt might write about the lunacy of the Green New Deal and massive government debt. Successful businesses must have a strong record of morality and must think long term to survive in a competitive marketplace. The CEO of Boeing would probably affirm this statement, at least right now. Unfortunately, Boeing's marketing group convinced the FAA the 737 Max was the same as the old reliable 737. This wasn't true. Even many pilots were not aware of the complexity of the new MCAS software. The FAA did not understand the new Boeing technology, so why are they regulating. The 737 Max's software relied on a single sensor, which failed. Some important safety features were sold as “options,” not standard equipment. Those options weren't chosen by Lion Air or Ethiopian Air, but you can count on them being standard in the future. Internal concerns from Boeing engineers and pilots' reports to the NASA system were ignored. Why? Boeing was focusing on competing with Airbus, which had the lead; morality and long-term thinking be damned. No one will ever think of Boeing in the same way and there could be criminal as well as civil liability. Lesson learned: One must bear in mind, as Hazlitt taught, the long-term consequences of conduct. Industries must be 100 % responsible 100 % of the time. Thinking H. L. Mencken described Hazlitt as "one of the few economists in human history who could really write." Hazlitt wrote well because he thought well. Hazlitt, affirms in his book, Thinking as A Science, that most people are not thinkers. I love Hazlitt's observation that if there is a problem and a solution is needed, “They want to look it up.”In today's world, they'd want to “Google it.” Too many of our educational institutions are propaganda centers and not cultivators of thinking people. Many institutions suppress thinkers and demand compliance with politically correct, non-thinking popular culture, which undermines an entrepreneurial America. I often tell our students and our interns: How you think will determine your future. Good thinking and cooperation are critical to making progress in life. Hazlitt was a great thinker by analyzing the long-term consequences of economic policies, such as tariffs and monetary and fiscal policy. He knew that our thinking will have major consequences, for good or evil. His book, The Failure of the New Economics, masterfully refutes Lord Keynes's General Theory by showing Keynes's theories as nothing more than bad thinking. Two great thinkers in the 20th century were the Wright brothers. The Wright brothers were successful in flight because they visualized the need for “suitable controls” to balance the plane once it is in the air. Our government sponsored Samuel Langley who failed to realize the need for suitable controls in flight. The Wright Brothers took no government money, they are a perfect future model for Entrepreneurs. Thinking ability is the greatest single advantage of the entrepreneur. “The greatest resource,” as Julian Simon put it, “is the human mind.” Thinkers in business applied the principles of “exit” and disruption. Think of technologist Balaji Srinivasin in genomics and mobile money, and of UBER, Airbnb, and self-driving cars. Harvard business professor Clayton Christensen is among those who have studied old industries that were disrupted by new companies with a better approach. Nucor Steel, an upstart in 1960 with its minimills, is now the largest steel company in the U.S. Our only task as entrepreneurs is to serve the user. CaptiveAire thinks in the long-term, continuously. Even with the steel tariffs in effect since 2018, CaptiveAire has refused to raise prices beyond our normal level. We gain market share because we think long-term, and we generate profits by always putting our users' interests first. We witness short-term ideas and fallacious claims every day. Socialism is being sold hard as a solution to a problem that does not exist in America.There is a Green New Deal to save our planet, which is doing pretty well.Debt and deficits do not matter, as long as interest rates are low. Congress does not even attempt to balance the budget.Free trade is portrayed as the enemy of prosperity but in fact it has made us rich. Hayek in The Road to Serfdom described those who would “buy” such fallacious claims as the gullible. Problems and solutions must be well-thought out and understood before changes are made. Good decisions require real thinking, which is hard and time-consuming.. Yet without good thinking, the consequences may be catastrophic. Long-Term Economics Hazlitt sets a clear path for entrepreneurs who think long term. The entrepreneur must make the hard decisions at the right time, based on the known facts that are often sparse in the creative world. In 1978, when we began making kitchen ventilation hoods, the machines to create more hoods faster did not exist… In 1983, the computerized hydraulic-press brakes we needed were invented by Darley in Holland. This technology revolutionized the sheet metal industry. Hydraulic-press brakes increased productivity four times and the now fully-automated machines produce eight times what they did in 1982. In 1988, international alloy prices were spiking, causing stainless steel prices to increase dramatically. My solution was to find an stainless steel product less vulnerable to volatile alloy price spikes. CaptiveAire adopted two important changes that transformed the industry: We light-weighted Commercial hoods, saving 20% of the metal.We changed the standard from 304 to 430 stainless steel, saving another 20%. In 2008, most of the food service industry adopted our 1988 standards using 430 metal when possible. CaptiveAire was a little-known manufacturer with sales of nine million dollars in 1988. These and other decisions propelled us to a half-billion dollars in sales last year. Changes are risky, but the long-term outcome was that CaptiveAire became the leading producer of commercial kitchen hoods in North America. In 1925, Treasury Secretary Andrew Mellon and President Calvin Coolidge applied a supposedly “scientific” method in determining the marginal federal income tax rate. They chose 25 percent. The decreased income tax rate helped America to enjoy the Roaring Twenties' economy. After the stock market crashed in 1929, Hoover prolonged the Great Depression by raising the marginal rate to 63 %. Tariffs averaged 40 % with the Smoot-Hawley Act. Hazlitt clearly describes the tax dilemma: When the total tax burden grows beyond a bearable size, the problem of devising taxes that will not discourage and disrupt production becomes insoluble. Hazlitt cautioned that tariffs do not raise the standard of living; they have the opposite effect, which we witness today. Tariffs are self-inflicted wounds and the current trade wars are slowing economic growth here and abroad. Growth is slowing internationally because of tariffs. On free trade, Hazlitt quotes Adam Smith: In every country it always is and must be the interest of the great body of people to buy whatever they want of those who sell the cheapest. Free trade should be intuitive, especially with the example of the 50 American states, which comprise the largest unilateral free-trade zone in history. But despite the value of free trade, large numbers of Americans believe tariffs raise our standard of living and create jobs. The steel tariffs under President George W. Bush were meant to help American steel companies, but ended up hurting even more companies and causing the loss of 200 thousand jobs in industries using steel. This exemplifies how a short-sighted policy hurts entire industries in the long term. Hazlitt's long-term approach is imperative for America. Three things we desperately need to think about in regard to the long term are: Eliminating fiscal deficitsEducating our childrenFocus on integrity to the market place, not special interests. These policies would greatly benefit our economy: The more the deficit Reducing Government spending allows more investment capital, allocated by entrepreneurs not government. The better our students are educated, the more productive our workforce will be. U.S. K-12 public schools are one of the largest monopolies in history. Costs are high, quality is low, discipline and character formation are gone. In America's public schools, you don't get what you pay for. In 2007, I opened a private K-12 chain of private schools named The Thales Academy. Hazlitt's morality, thinking, and long-term outcomes formed our philosophy. The Thales standard is the highest possible academic quality and character formation for each student at the lowest possible cost. The cost for K-5 is $ 5,000.00 per year and has not changed since the founding. Today we have 8 campuses and 3,100 students. My goal is to grow Thales to 25,000 students as an example of what can be done. The Thales model is changing the way parents think of K-12 education. One important lesson I have learned, which is contrary to conventional wisdom, is that it takes a very long time to establish a great company. And the process never ends! Individuals, companies, and our government must think about the long-term effects of their actions. Conclusion: Why Hazlitt Matters for the Entrepreneur Hazlitt states that an entrepreneur is "a capitalist willing to take unusual risks." His theories of morality and long-term economics are found in every story of a successful entrepreneur. When an entrepreneur is able to achieve excellence, society is benefited as a whole. However, the entrepreneur can only achieve excellence when freedom prevails. Calls for the government to provide its citizens with every necessity, whim, and craving lead to chaos. Venezuela is a leading example of this. This is why the moral entrepreneur is critical to the market: He is not concerned with garnering the most rights for himself, but rather gaining the most customers by serving. Hazlitt explains, “the rules of morality are those rules of conduct that tend most to increase human cooperation, happiness and well-being” The entrepreneur's morality directly correlates with society's well-being; the job is never done for entrepreneurs and economists. Hazlitt never went to college: his thoughts were not dependent on what he already knew, but rather on trying to explore things he did not know. Edwin Land affirmed this way of learning and thinking when he said: “Creativity begins at the edge of the known.” This is how successful entrepreneurs operate: They make guesses and take risks off of the edge of what they already know. They apply their thinking skills to make the best possible decisions using the information they have today to positively influence the long-term future. My Message to entrepreneurs: Maintain humility in realizing that you don't and can't know everything. In the words of Dr. Bill Peterson, “None of us get it all right.” No matter how much you know, it will always be a fraction of what is already known. In the 40 plus years that CaptiveAire has existed, we have made many mistakes but our policy is that if we are wrong, we pay the price, not our users. In 2016, we designed a new leading-edge Roof Top Heating and Cooling unit for commercial buildings. This new technology uses a modulating compressor so it's very efficient and can provide 100 % outside fresh air to buildings. We learned from past errors and elected to have a three-year BETA testing of this product. We know we are 100 % responsible for the performance of this product for the next 20 plus years. Hazlitt's long term philosophy does work in the market and it fact this is how the market works. Entrepreneurs aggressively seek new knowledge and rethink everything: they carry the torch of Hazlitt. We live at a time where Entrepreneurs & Producers are the villains and the heroes are the Government and Politicians. I quote Bill Peterson: “Entrepreneurs are every bit the heroes of our society.” I might add, the takers are the real villains. As we witness rallies and hear cheers for the short-term economic policies, we must think of the long-term to achieve the American dream. Hazlitt, Mises and Hayek lived in more challenging times, but our society is on the road to Serfdom unless the Austrian School prevails; as economic illiteracy rules the day. Hazlitt's morality through long-term thinking is hard to sell to the public because Human Nature lives in the present and wants it now. Our country's foundation is being shaken by the lack of and therefore it is imperative that we integrate long-term thinking into our homes, our schools, our places of work. I challenge you to take up the mantle of Hazlitt and be a courageous writer, debater and teacher of morality and long-term thinking. We could use an army of Hazlitts today: men and women of courage and wisdom, who are unafraid to speak and write the truth. I conclude with Hazlitt's words. The times call for courage. The times call for hard work. But if the demands are high, it is because the stakes are even higher. They are nothing less than the future of liberty, which means the future of civilization.

FP's First Person
Why Economists Hate Tariffs

FP's First Person

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 27, 2018 30:23


On the podcast: How the Smoot-Hawley Act of 1930 embroiled the U.S. in a trade war and prolonged the Great Depression.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Farm To Table Talk
Tariffs TAX Food & Farming – Josh Rolph - Farm To Table Talk

Farm To Table Talk

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 4, 2018 29:45


Tariffs are taxes on food and farming. It starts off sounding distant and hopefully strategic, then degenerates into retaliation.  Still trade "war" is an abstract concept for most of the public until the 'chickens come home to roost' months or years later in the form of higher costs of  food to consumers and reduced income--even insolvency on farms. Concerned as we are with successful marketing journeys from farm to table, disruption in these food channels must be addressed.  Organizations like Farmers for Fair Trade, the Farm Bureau and others are calling for the US Administration to reverse course before it is too late to avoid the consequences--consequences learned the hard way in the Great Depression following the Smoot Hawley Act passed nearly 100 years ago.  To sort out the cause, implications and solutions of the these battles we have a Farm To Table Talk with Josh Rolf, the Manager of Federal Policy for the California Farm Bureau. #farmersforfreetrade

EconTalk Archives, 2010
Rustici on Smoot-Hawley and the Great Depression

EconTalk Archives, 2010

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 4, 2010 85:06


Thomas Rustici of George Mason University and author of Lessons from the Great Depression talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about the impact of the Smoot-Hawley Act on the economy. The standard view is that the decrease in trade that followed Smoot-Hawley was not big enough to be a significant contributor to the Great Depression. Rustici argues that this Keynesian approach that looks at aggregate spending misses a crucial mechanism for understanding the impact of Smoot-Hawley. Rustici focuses on the impact of Smoot Hawley on bank closings and the money supply. Smoot-Hawley launched an international trade war that reduced world trade dramatically. This had large concentrated regional effects in the United States and around the world in areas that depended on trade. Those were the areas where the first banks collapsed, contracting the money supply via the fractional reserve banking system. Rustici argues that the Keynesian indictment of the price system ignores the policy failures that destroyed the institutions that make the price system work.

EconTalk
Rustici on Smoot-Hawley and the Great Depression

EconTalk

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 4, 2010 85:06


Thomas Rustici of George Mason University and author of Lessons from the Great Depression talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about the impact of the Smoot-Hawley Act on the economy. The standard view is that the decrease in trade that followed Smoot-Hawley was not big enough to be a significant contributor to the Great Depression. Rustici argues that this Keynesian approach that looks at aggregate spending misses a crucial mechanism for understanding the impact of Smoot-Hawley. Rustici focuses on the impact of Smoot Hawley on bank closings and the money supply. Smoot-Hawley launched an international trade war that reduced world trade dramatically. This had large concentrated regional effects in the United States and around the world in areas that depended on trade. Those were the areas where the first banks collapsed, contracting the money supply via the fractional reserve banking system. Rustici argues that the Keynesian indictment of the price system ignores the policy failures that destroyed the institutions that make the price system work.