Podcast appearances and mentions of greg valliere

Talk Money with Jim ShoemakerJoin as Jim Shoemaker and Greg Valliere for a discussion on current events in Washington - On the Hill. Michael Powell will share insights in Savvy Strategies for Your Health Savings Account, and Ted Minor will present Important Investment Lessons.                            "Helping You Make the Most of Your Money”Jim Shoemaker, CFP, ChFC, is an investment advisor representative offering advisory services through Cetera Investment Advisers, a registered investment adviser. Securities offered through Cetera Advisor Networks, member FINRA/SIPC. Cetera is under separate ownership from any other named entity. Shoemaker Financial is independently owned and operated. 2176 West St, Ste. 100, Germantown, TN 38138

Tariff uncertainty has become par for the course in financial markets these days. Kevin, John and David welcome Greg Valliere, AGF's Chief U.S. Policy Strategist, back to the show to discuss what the U.S. administration's chaotic trade policy means for investors going forward.  Hosted By:KM: Kevin McCreadie, CEO and Chief Investment Officer, AGF InvestmentsJC: John Christofilos, Chief Trading Officer, AGF InvestmentsDP: David Pett, Content Editor & Producer, Inside Perspectives: An AGF Podcast Series Guest:GV: Greg Valliere, Chief U.S. Policy Strategist, AGF Investments

Michael Farr welcomes long time Washington insider and analyst Greg Valliere for a look at how the initial salvos fired by the incoming administration are changing the political, and investing, landscape. But firs, Michael checks in with our regular guests Jim Iuorio and Dan Mahaffee to catch you up on the week.Bringing you insight into Wall Street, Washington, and The World -- it's The FarrCast!

Kevin, John, and David welcome Greg Valliere back to the podcast to discuss the latest U.S. election developments and make their predictions for the new NFL season. Hosted By:KM: Kevin McCreadie, CEO and Chief Investment Officer, AGF InvestmentsJC: John Christofilos, Chief Trading Officer, AGF InvestmentsDP: David Pett, Editor, AGF Perspectives Guest:GV: Greg Valliere, Chief U.S. Policy Strategist, AGF Investments

Talk Money with Jim ShoemakerJoin Jim Shoemaker, Greg Valliere, and Scott Jordan as they reveal news about “The Hill” with a “Washington Update.”  Shannon Dyson provides insights with “Questions Employers Should be Asking at Renewal Time of their Group Health Plan.”                                   "Helping You Make the Most of Your Money” Jim Shoemaker, CFP, ChFC, is an investment advisor representative offering advisory services through Cetera Investment Advisers, a registered investment adviser. Securities offered through Cetera Advisor Networks, member FINRA/SIPC. Cetera is under separate ownership from any other named entity. Shoemaker Financial is independently owned and operated. 2176 West St, Ste. 100, Germantown, TN 38138

Bloomberg's Tom Keene and David Gura get reaction to the attempted assassination attempt of former President Donald Tump. They speak with: Hadriana Lowenkron, Bloomberg News reporter Terry Haines, Pangea Policy founder Jordan Fabian, Bloomberg News white house correspondent Wendy Schiller, Director of the Taubman Center for American Politics and Policy, Brown University Henrietta Treyz, Veda Partners managing partner Rick Davis, Bloomberg politics contributor and partner at Stone Court Capital Joe Mathieu, host of Bloomberg Balance of Power Jeanne Sheehan Zaino, Bloomberg politics contributor and Iona University political science professor Nancy Cook, Bloomberg News Senior national political correspondent Greg Valliere, AGF Investments Chief U.S. Policy Strategist Mick Mulroy, Lobo Institute co-founder Jack Devine, Arkin Group President   See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Talk Money with Jim ShoemakerJoin Jim Shoemaker, Greg Valliere, and Scott Jordan as they talk about the latest “News from Washington and Capitol Hill, the election, the budget, and the Fed.”                                               "Helping You Make the Most of Your Money” Jim Shoemaker, CFP, ChFC, is an investment advisor representative offering advisory services through Cetera Investment Advisers, a registered investment adviser. Securities offered through Cetera Advisor Networks, member FINRA/SIPC. Cetera is under separate ownership from any other named entity. Shoemaker Financial is independently owned and operated. 2176 West St, Ste. 100, Germantown, TN 38138

A full-blown civil war has broken out inside America's political left, and more and more media pundits are starting to panic that this is going to ultimately lead to a Trump landslide! We're going to find out precisely why they're right, and why that panic is just getting started! Highlights: “The key here is that these students are emphatically not protesting Trump. They're protesting Biden. They're calling him ‘Genocide Joe'!” “The policy strategist for AFG Investments, Greg Valliere, is warning that Biden's decline in support among young voters is reaching catastrophic proportions!” Timestamps: [02:04] Student protestors and riot police clashed in different universities [03:36] MSNBC panicking over this civil war [07:04] On the latest polls showing that Democrat vote is indeed splitting -- Stay Connected to Dr. Steve moving forward on the new Turley Talks Platform at: https://fight.turleytalks.com Start the 24/7 Protection of Your Home and Equity Today! Go to https://www.hometitlelock.com/turleytalks *The content presented by our partners may contain affiliate links. When you click and shop the links, Turley Talks may receive a small commission.*    Thank you for taking the time to listen to this episode.  If you enjoyed this episode, please subscribe and/or leave a review. FOLLOW me on X (Twitter): https://twitter.com/DrTurleyTalks Click here to partner with us and defy liberal culture! https://advertising.turleytalks.com/sponsorship Sign up for the 'New Conservative Age Rising' Email Alerts to get lots of articles on conservative trends: https://turleytalks.com/subscribe/.

(1/5/24) Richard and Danny are reunited for the new year: Lessons from last year: You cannot get enough out of stocks; if "Goldilocks" is already baked-in (with 6-rate cuts), what happens when cocaine bear appears? Greg Valliere background; Resolving to Be Resolute in 2024: Marking realistic milestones; why you don't have to save everything for retirement later. Classic Cars & phone chargers; improving your human capital; why stocks are not the be-all, end-all solutions for retirement income; the proper place for stocks, bonds, and other types of investments; stocks vs ETF's. Stop the competition. Hosted by RIA Advisors' Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP, w Senior Financial Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer SEG-1: Lessons from Last Year SEG-2: Resolving to be Resolute: Marking milestones SEG-3: Classic Cars & Phone Chargers; Improving Human Capital SEG-4: The Proper Place for Stocks & Bonds -------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PtadzU_n_RE&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2s -------- Register for our 2024 Economic Summit: Navigating Markets in a Presidential Cycle: https://www.eventbrite.com/e/ria-advisors-economic-summit-tickets-703288784687?aff=oddtdtcreator -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Will Sector Rotation Be the Theme for 2024?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ohaE8nQ1nHQ&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "What the Latest Fed Meeting Minutes Mean" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Aol1v6hfATk&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=9s -------- Articles Mentioned in this Show: "Will 2024 Be The Year Of The Other 493?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/will-2024-be-the-year-of-the-other-493/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/6316958366519/WN_jCrzdX9uSJSrg5MBN5Oy8g ------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #MarketCorrection #2024Resolutions #RetirementIncome #HumanCapital #GregValliere #Markets #Money #Investing

(1/5/24) Richard and Danny are reunited for the new year: Lessons from last year: You cannot get enough out of stocks; if "Goldilocks" is already baked-in (with 6-rate cuts), what happens when cocaine bear appears? Greg Valliere background; Resolving to Be Resolute in 2024: Marking realistic milestones; why you don't have to save everything for retirement later. Classic Cars & phone chargers; improving your human capital; why stocks are not the be-all, end-all solutions for retirement income; the proper place for stocks, bonds, and other types of investments; stocks vs ETF's. Stop the competition. Hosted by RIA Advisors' Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP, w Senior Financial Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer SEG-1: Lessons from Last Year SEG-2: Resolving to be Resolute: Marking milestones SEG-3: Classic Cars & Phone Chargers; Improving Human Capital SEG-4: The Proper Place for Stocks & Bonds -------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PtadzU_n_RE&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2s -------- Register for our 2024 Economic Summit: Navigating Markets in a Presidential Cycle:  https://www.eventbrite.com/e/ria-advisors-economic-summit-tickets-703288784687?aff=oddtdtcreator -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Will Sector Rotation Be the Theme for 2024?" is here:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ohaE8nQ1nHQ&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "What the Latest Fed Meeting Minutes Mean" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Aol1v6hfATk&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=9s -------- Articles Mentioned in this Show: "Will 2024 Be The Year Of The Other 493?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/will-2024-be-the-year-of-the-other-493/ ------- Get more info & commentary:  https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/6316958366519/WN_jCrzdX9uSJSrg5MBN5Oy8g ------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #MarketCorrection #2024Resolutions #RetirementIncome #HumanCapital #GregValliere #Markets #Money #Investing

Carl Riccadonna, BNP Paribas Chief US Economist, says we still have yet to feel peak restriction. Sarah Hunt, Alpine Saxon Woods Chief Market Strategist, says there's a place for bonds as investors look to a more balanced portfolio. Greg Valliere, AGF Chief US Policy Strategist, says we could see a surprise from the Democrats with an unknown nominee. Max Layton, Citi Global Head of Commodities Research, says OPEC+ would need to maintain cuts next year in order to balance markets.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Talk Money with Jim ShoemakerJoin Jim Shoemaker and Greg Valliere as they “Take a Look Inside Washington”.  Steve Anderson and Scott Jordan follow up with an “Update on the Economy”.                                          "Helping You Make the Most of Your Money” Jim Shoemaker, CFP, ChFC, is an investment advisor representative offering advisory services through Cetera Investment Advisers, a registered investment adviser. Securities offered through Cetera Advisor Networks, member FINRA/SIPC. Cetera is under separate ownership from any other named entity. Shoemaker Financial is independently owned and operated. 2176 West St, Ste. 100, Germantown, TN 38138

Jay Bryson, Wells Fargo Chief Economist, and David Kelly, JPMorgan Asset Management Chief Global Strategist, break down October's US CPI report that shows a steady easing in inflation. Liz Suzuki, Bank of America Securities Analyst, says consumers are relying on excess savings amid the discomfort of higher rates. Greg Valliere, AGF Investments Chief US Policy Strategist, expects Congress to pass a government funding bill and avert a shutdown. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance  Full transcript:I'm Tom Keene, along with Jonathan Farrow and Lisa Abramowitz. Join us each day for insight from the best and economics, geopolitics, finance, and investment. Subscribe to Bloomberg Surveillance on demand on Apple, Well, Spotify and anywhere you get your podcasts, and always on Bloomberg dot com, the Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg Business App. Is the Fed Done? Is this basically what we're looking at right now? The all clear sign for the Federal Reserve to have to do more. Jay Brison, Chief Economist, it W Wells Fargo joining US. Now I ask that to you, Jay, does this sound the all clear for the FED? It does for right now, Lisa. I mean, you know, these numbers are going to bounce around on a month by month basis. You know, I wouldn't. Our view is that the FED probably is done. But I don't expect FED officials to be coming out just because of this one report saying oh it's all clear, everything's great out there. I mean, I think they're still going to continue to be biased to potentially tightening. We don't think that will happen, but you know, in the next few months, these numbers kind of reverse and they kind of pop up, and the economy expands at a stronger unexpected rate, you could potentially see them going But again, I think that's a that's a high bar at this point. This adds to signs that there is some sort of cool and this is the reason why so many people are talking about a soft landings. You haven't seen the real cracks you'd expect ahead of a massive recession. Jay, do you think that is an accurate categorization of exactly what we're seeing with prices not going up as much as people had expected. Yeah, I think that's right, you know. I mean, if we were still clipping along at a year over year rate on the core of a five percent, we'd be talking about the Fed hiking even more. And when you start to hike even more, that's when you have the problems. So, you know, so the potential for a soft landing is still there. I guess what I'm a little bit still watching and concerned about is that the real FED funds, right, you know, the nominal rate minus some sort of inflation rate continues to drift higher, and that's what matters for the real economy. And so I think the Fed is going to delay easing at this point, and so we may or may not have a downturn early next year, but I think the next few quarters because monetary policy is going to remain restrictive. I think you're looking at headwinds on xanomic growth. Is it mission accomplished? There's a comedy to that, a painful comedy for our geopolitics, our history, Doctor Bryson. What are we getting to a transitory point where this Federal Reserve can say mission accomplished? Well, again, Tom, I don't think they're going to come out and say that right at this point. But you know what I would say is the bar for further rate hikes is getting higher and higher at this point. Many of the members on the FOMC think they have done enough at this point, and you know, today's rally and the tenure notwithstanding, you know, we still have seen you know, relatively high long term rates and so there's a fair amount of headwinds on the economy right now. Again, they're not going to come out and say mission accomplished right now. They need to see a few more months of this before I think they feel confident in that this is certainly a good start in that journey. But I still think, you see, you need to see a few more months of point two's before they say accomplished. Lisa, the mission accomplished December twelfth a CPI report before a December thirteenth FED meeting, and or just to really echo what Jay was talking about that the bar is getting higher and higher for them to go again, evidently the bar is getting a bit lower for them to cut rates. FED dated swaps are now pricing in the first twenty five basis point cut for June versus July. Before we got this print, Jay, there is this issue of what we're going back to. Are we seeing a fast enough pace of disinflation to believe that two percent is very much in the horizon. You and your team have been excellent about the last mile of getting inflation down from three percent to two percent? How far along that process are we? So, you know, I don't have the numbers here in front of me, Lisa, but you know, I think if you look at the three month annualized change in the core, we're probably at three and a half percent right now. So if you want to get back down to two, I mean, what you need is you need a few months of point twos and even point one to kind of get you there. And I'd think we're still looking at a number of months for that. We don't think we're going to be looking at that sort of number until the second half of twenty twenty four. But I don't know if you necessarily need to be two percent annualized for a few months before the FED cuts. I mean, they're going to be looking forward, right and if they are confident that things are really going to slow down, then they could start to cut rates, you know, maybe summer or so of next year, Doctor Bryson, thank you so much. The chief economist of Will's Frogo Ja Brison, David Kelly, will adjust. He's chief Global Strategists at JP Morgan Asset Management. With his years at Putnam knows when the facts change, he will change. David Kelly, how does your analysis change with this shock report? Yeah, so this this report is actually very close to who we're looking for here. As we're tracing as inflation, we can see right down to below two percent on the consumption deflator by the fourth court of next year. I think what's really important about this report is there's a large camp of people who say that the last mile is sticky, getting from three to two is sticky, and we don't see that at all. We're going to step down inflation all the way through the fourth court of next year. And what I think this report is showing is across the board, there's disinflation in the US economy and we're heading back to two percent. So I think that is gradually changing in the minds of the markets. I think that's why you've seen this move here, although it's not necessarily coming with paying David, and this goes to the soft landing Nirvana that Neil Dotta was talking about, that real average hourly earnings increased by zero point eight percent, up from zero point five percent. People's earnings are exceeding at the pace of inflation and in a material way for the first time in a long time. How much does that lead to a stickiness because people have the means to keep paying the prices. I don't think so, because I mean, we've had periods of positive real wage growth before. But what I'm saying looking at the earnings reports from the last quarter is companies are very focused on holding earnings in check. Now, yes, you can say that today's earnings are higher than inflation, but from a worker's perspective, they're not even getting catch up from all the inflation they saw over the last two years. So what you're seeing is partial compensation for previous inflation. But I don't see a lot of evidence that companies are being able to push higher prices the workers being able to push higher wages. So overall, I think what we're seeing we're not seeing a price wage spiral. We're seeing a price wage slinky. They're both gradually coming down the stairs slowly. I think this is just going to continue all the wage two percent, and there's a question mark around Yes, this is definitely good for bonds and you're seeing that rally in a massive way today. Is this necessarily good for stocks over the longer term if it is accompanied with a cooling in the economy. Yeah, I think it is. Now. There are things that could go wrong, and there's certainly parts of the stock market that are overpriced, but I think what's happening is work turning to where we were ten years ago. We're turning to an economy with two percent inflation, very slow growth. That low inflation can allow for lower long term interest rates, which supports all asci prises, bonds and stocks alike. And of course stocks are the ultimate long duration asset, so they will benefit from this lower rate environment. So, you know, soft landings never last forever. They'll eventually the rote and we'll fall into recession. But for right now, this does really show that inflation is steadily coming down, and we've just got to we've got to recognize that's going on. Regardless of Fed officials who occasionally say that we're not there yet or tour into declare victory. Look, I'm willing to say we're going to win this thing. It looks very very likely they're going to win this. In Invation down to two percent by the end of next year, Small Stacks Russell up four percent, NASDAK up one point eight percent, though Nasdaq one hundred, I should say Dow lags up one point one percent, Standard Impores five hundred, up fifty, up fifty five, up sixty, and now up sixty three points one point five percent. Doctor Kelly, I want to sum this up to the angst that Lisa Brambo Bramo Wit says on our nation's debt. If we get inflation down, if we have a successful FED, does that give you confidence that we can have in long term our minus G relationship, our minus G equation, that will mean our debt and deficit is of less fear a little bit. I mean, it's still what you're basically saying is we can service this debt at cheaper prices no matter how large it is. Yes, we can to an extent, But I think the amount of debt we've piled up in recent years is going to mean permanently higher loge of interest rates experienced ten years ago, so that that problem is going to be around for a while unfortunately, I see no evidence that there's any consensus in Washington about doing anything about it about it, so I'm still worried about poppulism. Left of the right just pushing these depths its higher and higher in the years ahead. Doctor Kelly, thank us so much, David Kelly, JP Morgan joining US unapplied mathematics of big box retail. Elizabeth Suzuki joins US at Bank of America Securities. When you were going through polynomials and you know, doing ferrisproof and all that and applied manth, you think you'd be an aisle four at home depot. I did not. I never thought that my work was going to include channel check at stores that I just go to anyway. In fact, now you know, as a homeowner for the last you know, six years, I'm in home depot pretty much every weekend, maybe every other weekend. But I mean it just never stopped. Wonderful. I've never been to the one downstairs Ferrell's down there once a week picking up something. Let me cut to the chase, which is the new post pandemic home depot world and for other big box as well. Can they fix the problem on the income statement? Can they take out expenses like Disney or you name the bank. Sure, you know, I wouldn't really categorize it as a problem on the income statement. When we think about what Home Depot is going to do this year in terms of sales, they're probably going to end up about fifty percent higher than they were in twenty nineteen. And just putting that in context of the broader industry, which is tracking up about like twenty percent versus twenty nineteen levels, that's an amazing amount of market share that Home Depot has been able to take. I mean, we're coming down off of these very very high levels of spend. During the pandemic. Homeowners had you know, easy rates to be able to borrow against. They also had you know, stimulus money to spend. They were moving at much higher frequency. A lot of people moved out to the suburbs during the pandemic. I mean, we've seen a slowdown in that, and you know, I think what's been surprising this year to the downside and just where we've seen that pressure on the top line is really mostly from housing turnover basically coming to a standstill, you know, so as as we expect. Yeah, so I think, you know, as as rates start to moderate or potentially even come down, maybe towards the second half of next year, I think that's going to help spur that housing turnover again and we're going to see more of a return to normalization in terms of that top line salesca Given what mortgage rates are, do you really think we can normalize the fact that some people just locked in their homes with the two three percent mortgage you just aren't moving anytime soon. Yeah, you know. I think it's like once rates really stabilize, maybe come down a tick, you know, a couple of rate cuts, potentially in the second half of next year, then you know the homeowner is saying, okay, like rates are probably not continuing to go up, I can potentially refinance. If I were to move today, I'm locking in a rate that's higher than what I wanted. But I feel like there's some potential for that to come down over time, and maybe it means that people buy a house that's a little bit smaller than what they wanted, or it means that you know, some people who are moving and you know, are going to have to absorb a higher rate. But because households have such high levels of savings they actually can absorb that. It's just it is uncomfortable, right So right now we're feeling that discomfort in terms of existing home sales, which are the lowest they've been in thirteen years. How much does home tapot rely on the housing market versus the fact that people aren't moving they are buying new refrigerators I'm just saying, or they're buying new stoves or new microwaves or other items in the house that might break. I mean at a certain point, does that actually help these companies? Yeah, I mean the sector is not as sensitive to housing turnover as one might think. I mean, when you're seeing these negative data points on housing every day, and if you already have sort of a negative bias, each one of those data points just kind of confirms your bias and you're going to say, of course, things are terrible right now. So what we've done is we tried to look at basically every macro factor you possibly could. And this is really where that applied mathematics comes into play. As we built a proprietary indicator of home improvement demand and we narrowed it down to fourteen different factors that are reported monthly that we can correlate to Home Depot and Low same store sales growth. At the end of the day, that's pretty much what drives these stocks is same store sales growth. So we narrowed it down to these fourteen factors, we built an indicator off of it, and then that indicator helps inform our views where we don't have to be dependent on the company's guidance, we don't have to be dependent on third party forecasts. Like we're able to actually look at the factors that matter, and then months to month we can track each of those factors and not get distracted by the noise that we hear in a lot of these other data correlated as Home Depot to some of the other retailers that are not related to the housing or home improvement sector. Yeah, I mean, that's that's a really interesting question. And I think, you know, when we boil it down and look to look at the broader sector and look at Bank of America's credit card data for the home improvement retailers, which is you know, just very broad category, Home Depot has outperformed that group pretty consistently, like actually very consistently over time, and Low's has as well. By at least two hundred basis points. So you know, the market share gains here are pretty material, and that's something that I want to just continue to kind of hone in on. In this result is even though their sales are down three percent, we've seen the category down you know, mid to high single digits year over year for most of this year. But in terms of correlation to you know, to other retailers, it's it's pretty independent. I mean, it's it's some factor of the broader consumer and the health there, and so obviously there's correlation to like a Walmart and a Target. But because it is related to housing and really home prices are one of the most important factors driving home improvement demand, that's really where it kind of differentiates. We've all been surprised by the strength that is economy this year. There's a bunch of companies that fall under your coverage. We're trying to work out whether we are at the precipice just around a corner from a severe weakning of the economy. Do you see any of that emerging whatsoever going into year end? Yeah, I mean I think that there are categories that we follow that are struggling more than others. You know, appliances, We talked about refrigerators. I mean, appliance sales are down. You know, the volumes have been under pressure. Margins are coming under pressure as well. We saw promotions that started in October for appliances. So if you're you should get on it, if you're you're in the market for a fridge, because I think those promotions are going to be, you know, pretty pretty attractive this year with the cameras. Some impressed. Yeah, I just kind ofd you get no, I just want to hear what you have to say. Carry on. But you know, consumer electronics is another one, right, I mean, as as Home Depot said in their press release or seeing pressure on big ticket consumer discretionary product. So consumer electronics definitely one of those. Appliance is kind of fit in that bucket from New York University just emailed in. So you're sitting here with Ken Langohn, He's gonna go. This is all a lot of great chat. But the bottom line after a three years pandemic and lays let's call it is, can they get back on track to the total return that we were weaned on? Can they get back to sixteen eighteen to twenty percent per year share return. Yes, I think, you know, in this current macro environment, that's tough, you know, because the consumer is pulling back on spending and we are coming off of this you know, sugar high from the last couple of years. But you know, we as we look to twenty twenty four and twenty twenty five, we see no reason why there shouldn't still be growth in the home improvement sector beyond the broader economy list. This was great, Thank yous. Going to see in person as well. Greg Fadia joint is right now, the chief US policy strategistic AHF Investments, Greg, in your mind, from your perspective, in your opinion, do you think this pass can pass, can get through Congress this week? I think they can. It's been so humiliating for them for the last few weeks. I think they know they've got to do something. The credit rating downgrade is serious. So yeah, I'm at sixty forty one minutes possible that a handful, once again, a handful of far right radical Republicans could kill this, but I think they want to give at least on this first bill. They want to give Mike Johnson a victory. This is what I was going to ask Greg, who does this particular offer upset more? Is it Republicans within his own party or elsewhere? What's a good point, John, There's so much in the bill to hate. For the Conservative Republicans, there are no spending cuts and they're quite upset over that. For the White House and the Democrats, the fact that there's nothing for Israel or Ukraine is very troubling. And we can say, oh, we'll get them some money in February. Well, they need money now, and I think to not send our allies this money sends a very bad signal. Greg. It's that time of year. Our Greg Durou owns a high ground and keeping track of who's leaving, who's coming, who's going in the House, in the Senate. Juan Williams in the Hill today or yesterday, I should say, really writes it up of the Republicans leaving the House. I think this is underreported. You've got Buck, You've got Granger, You've got LESCo, You've got Sparks, on and on. Is this going to be even a more Trump Republican party? Not in a year, but in a matter of weeks it could be. Yes, and a lot of the names you mentioned are people who are disgusted. They can't take it anymore. I also think there's a growing chance, a very good chance, that the next Senate will elect a year from now, will be controlled by the Republicans. They have, I think, an easy chance to take the Senate. Now, I look at this as wildly underport. You know, we'll focus on mansion and that in Spenberg or Virginia. Have you seen it like this before? Is this normal changing of the chairs to musical chairs or is there something unique here? Well? I tell you, Tom, I think what is unusual is to have Democrats talking now openly about a need to get a different nominee. That's really unprecedented. You probably have to go back to LBJ who lost support in his own party. That makes the Democrats nervous, the fact that they could lose the Senate and lose it convincingly. We'll get back to that in one second, because I do want to get your view on that. But just to build on what you're talking about, the fact that Democrats are joining with Republicans, some of them, to back Mike Johnson's plan. Isn't this what got Kevin McCarthy ousted his House speakers Bingo, that's right, And I got to think that we could have a repeat. You only need like three or four at the most five no votes and this whole thing could fall apart. So I think that Johnson has to worry that he could suffer the exact same fate as Kevin McCarthy. And there's still are nine, at least nine ultra conservatives in his party who are going to vote against this, at least as for now. What's worse though? On an international stage, you were talking about no funding for Ukraine and Israel. Is that worse than a government shutdown in the US. I think a government shutdown has become so ordinary. A brief shutdown wouldn't be as serious as sending a signal to our allies that we can't support them. I mean, this, I think is really very, very unnerving. And one other point I'd make quickly. I do think the final outcome is Johnson having to kind of deal with Democrats. I think that's the only way we're going to get a deal in the next week or two is to have the two parties unite on this. What will be the ramifications of that. I call that doing a John Bayner for an international audience. We've seen this before. But then what is the outcome if he does that? The outcome is going to be an effort to Ouston. I still think it's less than fifty to fifty. I think they want to give him a victory. Tom, but you could see a lot of Republicans say this is totally unacceptable. Great, let's talk about the race for the presidency next year. The field is narrowing on the Republican sign and it looks like Nicki Hade starts to attract some money. What do you make of the moves we've seen in the past week, Greg Well, Tim Scott didn't surprise me in the least. I think that they're the strongest other than Trump, of course, has been Nicki Haley over the last few weeks. She's got real momentum. DeSantis does not. He didn't even mention his endorsement in Iowa from the govern I can't figure it out. That was so Weirch can't just jump in, What was that about? Why didn't that come up in the debate. I don't get it. She endorsed him, I'd be bragging about it, but he didn't even bring it up in the debate. That was mystifying, but it's still trunks to lose. Trump has said some extraordinary things in the last few days about how his opponents are vermin using, really even by his standards, exceptionally harsh language, but his numbers hold up. He still has the base, and that means we need to narrow the field potentially even more for the Republicans. Who's next to drop out? Greig maybe Ramaswami. He's got money, but I could see him drop out. He's got no traction. His numbers don't look good. I think DeSantis and Nicky Haley stay in, and probably Chris Christy stays in, and that's good theater. Well, at this point, maybe the field is narrowing on the Republican side, but in some ways it's actually widening on the Democratic side. You said that there's real fear and there are real calls within the Democratic Party to have some other options than President Biden. How realistic is that? Who is everyone coalescing around? Well, that's the problem, nobody. And I think one of the strongest things that Biden has is the lack of any clear successor, and I think because of that, he will be the nominee. Apparently In the last twenty four hours, he's been very angry, profane, criticizing people like David Axelrod. I think he feels that he should be the nominee. I think he will be the nominee. What do you think he's so upset about, Greg oh mocking him for his age. Probably more than anything else. You can't do much. Can't do much about that, That's true, Greg Valier of Jeff Investments, that any of us can do anything about that. Greg, appreciate you up desa. Subscribe to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live every weekday starting at seven am Eastern, on Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app, in in the Bloomberg Business app. You can watch us live on Bloomberg Television and always. I'm the Bloomberg Terminal. Thanks for listening. I'm Tom Keen, and this is BloombergSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Julian Emanuel, Evercore ISI Chief Equity & Quantitative Strategist, expects consolidation in the streaming industry in the coming years. Greg Valliere, AGF Investments Chief US Policy Strategist, discusses the third Republican primary debate. Cameron Dawson, Newedge Wealth Chief Investment Officer, says it's too early to know if the uplift in unemployment will barrel higher into next year. Geetha Ranganathan, Bloomberg Intelligence US Media Analyst, breaks down Disney's better-than-expected 4Q earnings. Ellen Wald, Atlantic Council Senior Fellow, discusses the global oil market as crude prices remain low.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance    Full transcript:  I'm Tom Keene, along with Jonathan Farrow and Lisa Abramowitz. Join us each day for insight from the best and economics, geopolitics, finance and investment. Subscribe to Bloomberg Surveillance on demand on app, Spotify and anywhere you get your podcasts, and always on Bloomberg dot Com, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App. Jitting a manuel jointed to surround a table Chief Equity just over at evercor SI jitting Good mornings here, Good morning. Have you been participating in this wonderful, beautiful thing that is an eight day winning streak. Yeah, we have, you know, several weeks ago we just felt that when you backed off of that five percent yield, And I know we've been talking about it, but it is the fact that in this world now for the last year and a half, where stocks and bonds have been positive correlated, if bond yields go down, stocks go up, and backing off of five percent was huge for the psychology. And now we've got this unexpected oil price plunge, which is even bigger for Cheryl, I'm with you. Those two points yesterday stood out for me. Break a four to fifty on a ten year break of eighty on Brent crude. At what point do these correlations start to break the other way? What brings up hot that change? Well, we are watching that very closely. And guess what, the high frequency data is really important because that chart you were talking about a few moments ago, with the unemployment rate rising from three to four to three nine in the past, when that starts to happen, it tends to snowball. But where we're going to get the initial read on that is that eight thirty jobless claims number starts edging over two hundred and fifty thousand, we get a little bit cautious. Three hundred thousand is where we know the economy is going to turn down. I'm supposed to fold in now A question on Ed Hyman's Hicksy and Islm theory and his disinflation theory into your stock babble, forget about it. I love the single sentence you have which pushes against all that malarkey by saying price is paramount. Right now, when you talk to Ed Hyman, how does a respond to you telling them your economics doesn't matter, price is paramount. I'll tell you how five weeks ago Ed Heyman started putting out in almost daily the act that gasoline lean prices started falling as the conflict was erupting. You already had the turn in gasoline prices completely, you know, devoid of real sort of prosperity with Hymen's disinflationary tendency or outright deflation in China. Look, if you look at the last fifteen years, you've had episodic times of that from again. Obviously the financial crisis is one of those times. But ultimately what it comes back to again for equity investors, for bond investors. First of all, the whole idea of getting a real return on money in this world now is actually a positive for financial assets. It's a positive for capital allocation, and long term, it's a positive for growth. And that's you know, that's part of the equity investing mindset. Do you need a long term view right now or do you just trade the short term. It's really difficult to have a long term view because of what we're talking about the inflection in the economy potentially happening. But if you take the super long term view, is that even if you get the recession that Ed's thinking we're going to get, that it's going to be mild in twenty twenty four. What you're left with is a labor market that has rebalanced. What you're left with is again a real cost of money, better capital allocation, and frankly, we've talked about this before, you have new technological developments like generative AI that is going to improve the productivity of corporate America over the long term. One of the main frustrations of this year was that pretty much everything everyone said at the beginning of the year has proven to be wrong, including that this would be the year that tech stocks would fade more meaningfully and you start to see a broadening out in the rally. Energy stocks would start to be the true leaders. You just actually moved away from an overweight and energy and are talking more about generative AI. It seems like the theme just keeps on being that the leaders will keep leading. Everything else will just have to figure out where they fit in. Well, look, again, the recession will probably, you know, to the extent that it does arrive in the next twelve months or so, rationalize some of this, but ultimately what it's going to do, and look, part of the consternation on equity investors' minds is the fact that the Russell two thousand is making new lows. Ultimately, you're going to get to a point where there will be an attractive price for the other four hundred and ninety three stocks away from the Magnificent seven, and you will get to an earnings reset. We think that's part of next year's narrative. This is the difficult question I think people have got to confront at the moment. Do I want to buy the recovery to the recession I've not had yet, given the damage we've seen in the small camps. You can pick up various places to back up the consumer discretionary story. Allines, for instance, which have come way off the peak back of the summer. Do I want to start picking up the pieces going into what could be a slow down next year. We think you need to be balanced. It's one of those things where again, given the lack of visibility into next year, what we always say, we've had a very nice run in recent weeks, and if you go back over the last year, it's been a very nice run off the October lows. You need to be comfortable with the fact that if the market comes in ten or fifteen percent, which it does in any typical year, as it did several weeks ago, that you're a buyer of the dips and whatever that asset allocation is to you. That's the kind of discipline you need to employ. Goldman speak to this as well. We've gone through their note this morning a few times. It's worth doing it again. The hard part's over. More disinflation is in store over the next year. On growth, they see limited risk of a recession, and they say this on central bank policy. Then this is a really really interesting point. An increased willingness of central banks to deliver insurance cuts it grows slows. Earlier this week, Ben later on this program of E Toro, was saying the FED put was back. Lisa and I looked at each other and almost spat out our water. The FED put is back insures cuts of growth slows. Is the old fetch story returning? No? Why are they wrong? No? Look, because there is an assumption that there is a reflex reaction to a minus GDP quarter. Thankfully we didn't see it in twenty twenty two when we had that, because if you had interrupted the rate hiking program, you wouldn't have gotten to where you are. And you can argue both sides of this case, but frankly, for US, there is a commitment, given the fact that core PCE is still solidly with a three handle, that you just can't go down that road unless it really looks like there's a severe economic downturn. And we still think there's enough savings left over so that won't be the case. Judy and awesome as a was Emmanuel have et a court joining us now to brief off the GOP debate. Last night, Gregory Vliate, US policy strategist at AGF Investments. Gregory stood on the floor of the GOP convention of two thousand and four, and it was a different Republican Party. George Bush Junior wanted a more hopeful America. What's going to be that slogan this summer for the Republicans? Well, I think they'll emphasize the economy. They'll state that Biden has not done a good job. Frankly I would disagree, but I think that they'll make it more about the economy than anything else. The really intriguing issues are abortion number one, number two. How much more involved are we going to get in Ukraine and Israel? What about the idea that they're losing elections, not doing as well in certain elections. It going to be the mix of that we just saw it can be from a year ago, November, etc. How do they start winning again? Well, I don't think you talk like Ramaswami. I think he talked himself off the boat last night. I don't see much of a future for him. Probably not much of a future for Tim Scott. So it's dwindling. You've really only got three challengers. DeSantis, who was okay last night but made a strategic error he didn't mention the governor of Iowa had endorsed him. I can't believe he didn't talk about that. And then you've got Nicky Haley. He'll stick around for a while, maybe Chris Christy, but we'll begin at twenty twenty four. I think with just two challengers to Trump, that would be DeSantis and Haley. Do you think either of them have a chance of taking Trump off the ticket? Who would either of them? Oh? No, not at all. I mean Trump would have to do something really egregious, and he's pretty much filled the role on that for the last couple of years. So no, I don't see anything, you know, barring a health issue, that will keep Trump from being the nominee. Meanwhile, President Biden is going to meet with the UAW leader today and the there's a real question of what he can do to shore up the image of bignomics, of what's happened in the economy, which some people are saying on paper doesn't look so bad, yet in practice, has a lot of people feeling like they want something different. Well, it's a good question, Liza. I'm told that within the White House, Trump Biden is angry, he feels he's done a pretty good job in the economy and gets no credit. So he's going to hit the road and try to make his case. The problem is an awful lot of Americans fear that we're not out of the woods, and there's still more inflation threats, food, gasoline still to come. Greg Valier one oh one. Folks, this is a great course to take in politics. You get it off the back of a matchbook. You can take Valier one oh one. Greg, Your value one oh one is fiscal issues at the day of the election don't matter. Are you telling me the debt and the deficit don't matter the first Tuesday of November, Well, when you look at net inter cost, you look at borrowing costs, this is becoming a major crisis for the bond market, and there's no mood in Congress whatsoever to dramatically cut the deficit. However, I think that once we get through Labor Day of this coming year, this stuff will be irrelevant. I think attitudes harden during the summer. If Trump is well ahead, he could pull us out. But I have a feeling that Biden will come back. I have a feeling that the Democrats all of a sudden are motivated because of what happened in Kentucky. Is a path of least resistance for the former president. Another tax cut that's going to be on the agenda. You're absolutely right, Tom, and I think with the Senate probably flipping, in the House probably flipping, you're going to have a climate that will be ripe for a huge argument on whether we extend the Trump tax cuts. I think we will. I think Trump will talk about tax cutting even though the deficit is enormous. Greg, I have to wonder whether this time is different. A lot of people come on the show. We'll say dysfunction in Washington, DC is the reason why yields have been flipping and flopping and going all over the place, and then they talk about a potential government shutdown and say markets won't care. Have we reached the point where market dysfunction is going to result from political dysfunction in DC in a more material way. Well, we're going to see probably another alleged crisis on November seventeenth if there's no budget. I don't think the markets will be all that concerned about it. I do worry about the credit agencies, you know, fitch S and p downgrading US debt, not just because of the size of our debt, but because things are so dysfunctional in getting a budget. Great to catch up, Greg, appreciate your input. Greg Vally. THEFJEFF investment's gone into next year, as Ed Marangi and Emmanuel. So are you a confirmed bull? Cameron? I think that given the setup into your end, we can expect some kind of Santa claus rally just because of tax loss dynamics into the end of the year. The largest weights in the index are up the most this year, which means that you don't have eager sellers to recognize tax games. This is very different than last year, where the largest weights in the index were down a lot people sold them and you effectively puked into the end of the year. What it's the proverbial puke into the end of the year? Okay, thank you? Can we say that on radio? We just did, Cameron seriously our Warner Brothers discovery yesterday. Puke as you call it. Okay, how does that handle by tax saw selling? Well? I think that it will magnify as we go into the end of the year. You look at the areas that are down the most. This is small caps, This is cyclicals, This is healthcare some of your defensives. These are the areas where people are looking for tax sace harvesting opportunities. The key point though, is that they're smaller weights in the index or they're not part of the index. So when we just look at the S and P five hundred, that could be something that supports it into end year. So help me here. Am I buying the index the S and P five hundred? And am I looking for buying opportunities in small camps? The financials, things that have struggled? What am I doing? I think that you have to look for opportunities and things that have struggled as you go into twenty twenty four, because we know that pain trades usually are reversal trades in leadership and just at the point where everybody throws in the towel and says, well, you can't own anything but the magnificent seven. These are the names that give you optionality on AI and they have the best earnings growth. Everybody crowds into them, that's typically the moment that that's when they start to lag. And so I think we have to have the imagination that other things could do well in twenty twenty four. Other than just the narrow leadership that we've had this year, the Tilson Slock of Apollo's writing questions for us this morning. This is the question he's asking in its most recent note. Everyone who's bullish on equities and lower rated credit should ask them sound where they think the labor market will be in three months. With the Fed on hold and not showing any signs of cutting anytime soon, what's your labor market bed With that in mind, we are having the ultimate debate is if we're seeing normalization or we're seeing weakening. And the challenge is that normalization is usually the gateway drug two weakening, meaning that you see a little easing that turns into a lot of easing. But we're not yet seeing definitive data yet to say that the uplift we've had in unemployment is going to barrel higher. The key thing to remember, though, the Fed itself in its SEP the Summary Economic Projections has unemployment going to four point one percent next year and they're not forecasting a recession. So that's going to be a key question of if we get that four point one percent, does that justify them easing policy? Is it okay to sort of say we don't care for now. Down the line, whatever happens will happen. In the meantime, we can dance in the head of a pin with oil prices coming off, yield coming lower, and risk appetite still available. Yeah, because if we think going into CPI next week, remember that gasoline prices are down ten percent over the month of October. That's very different over the summer months where gas prices were up a lot. It pinched consumer spending maybe a little bit at the margin. So that does create this beneficial environment. But I think it's important to remember twenty twenty two, we priced in the earnings recession. In twenty twenty three, twenty three, we priced in the earnings recovery in twenty four. What are we going to price in twenty twenty four as we looked at twenty twenty five, are we still confident that this entire economic setup can remain very strong, that unemployment won't be an issue, consumer spending can remain robust Given the lack of certainty around some of the outcomes, the potential outcomes with the economy, How nimble are you remaining How are you remaining nimble? To be able to adjust quickly. I think we have to remain completely nimble. We saw that over thet last couple of weeks where we went from deeply oversold to deeply over to getting close to being overbought. It means that technicals become really important. We can't get too lodged into narratives because narratives would have told you everything's ending back a couple of weeks ago. Be scared. Now the narratives are saying everything is fantastic. The thing is that we are at resistance when we look at technical levels forty four hundred very important for the s and P five hundred four and a half percent very important support for the tenure. How we interact with those resistance and support levels will be very indicative of the next couple of months. Speak to the people who listened to you and said, Okay, I'm really nervous, but I'm going to participate in this market and they own tech which literally on an hourly basis, has a bid right now. What's the character of that bid on the Magnificent seven. Well, it's extraordinarily strong. But then think about the difference in the setup going into twenty twenty two Magnificent seven earnings had been cut by about twenty percent over the course of the year. Now going into twenty twenty three, over the course of twenty three, Magnificent seven earnings had been revised higher by sixty seventy percent sent on average because of the better growth that they've had. So it's a much higher bar and I think that's where the discipline is is not trying to extrapolate too much of the experience of twenty three, get too crowded, and instead look for opportunities and areas that might be more left behind. You've been talking, Cameron about how difficult it is to follow the mood because it swings so massively from week to week. How much has the move that we've seen in yields underpinned your conviction that you can lean into the rally heading into your end. It certainly has helped. We've seen it play out in the valuation and now valuations are back to about eighteen and a half time's earnings. The question is is that the right valuation even given where yields are at four and a half percent, where that equity risk premium is The challenge with valuations though, is they are terrible timing tools and that they have no predictive power on a one year forward basis. So we can look at the market and say, hey, it's expensive here, expensive there, but that may not actually show up in price action for two, three, four years. And that's where that discipline of not chasing very high valuations comes in. When you have a longer holding period, you go breaking news TK on donuts? Is that where you want to go? DONI plural don't I? Yeah? Yeah, longer going far away the way a prime broker attracted a hedge fund. We can get you shares of krispy Kreme short. There's a in the East Coast, particularly in the krispy Kreme's more southern thing, and they're a different don I than what you get from Dunkin Donuts, which is, you know, there's cultures here. John, It's like it's like Greg's, but it's like American. Okay, all of a sudden, krispy Kreme nice video on radio. You are missing the making of the Magnificent. And the answer here is krispy Kreme is looking for a partnership with McDonald's. John Tower out with this and it's a mixed story of Ibada out there. But John Tower, a city group says first bite on d n ut. It's a McDonald's partnership that we may see. Do you know what you don't know? And I know this story already because Bramo shared it with me before Bramo breaking into the news industry and Fargo years and years ago for the first Crispy Kreme shop tre Tree story, true story. I covered it and people lined up. They camped out overnight to get the first Krispy krama. I went to interview that. You can't imagine that Bramo was what Bradma was like in local news, right, just get into a fluff. It was like, it's an investive piece. What are they doing with that? Money? Is unreal? Bramo and Farco, Yeah, I'm enough of a dunkin donut, which Krispy Kreme is just two sugary and sweet. Like camera doesn't help us out here, Krispy Kreamer duncan, he's never had a donut. There is nothing better than a hot, fresh Krispy Kreme donut straight from the friar. Nothing better, all right? The scripting at me in the control room shot there. Please let's make sure we're running at nine o'clock today. Look for Cameron Dawson had Krispy Creekdnie. What you need to know is it's April of twenty eleven. There was a show then Game of Thrones Winter Is Coming was the first episode. And that's where we are right now. With the screaming success in days of Blue Eye Samurai on Netflix. I'm watching it. I can't say enough about the shocking beauty of it. It is overwhelming, how it is game changing for streaming. Keitha Raganathan knows this. She's US media analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. And I would suggest Disney knows this as well. Githa boyd A's Disney need a Blue Eye Samurai. They certainly do. And that's one thing Tom that Bob Iger really emphasized yesterday. He said he is looking to reinvent the studio. Those are the words he used, and he really emphasized quality over quantity. So you spoke about how spectacular Blue Eyed summariz that's exactly what Disney is going to go after. You know, they talked about, you know, the studio having some kind of franchise fatigue. Too many TV series created for the streaming service. They're really kind of streaming down or cutting down, I would say, pairing down on a lot of the content costs. You know, Lisa was talking about where those savings are going to come from, a lot of that is them just really cutting down on content costs. So they took down content costs from thirty billion to twenty seven billion. For fiscal twenty twenty three, they're taking that down further to twenty five billion, and that is where you get that big, big free cash flow number for them as well. Eight billion dollars is what they're projecting for twenty twenty four, or sixty percent increase from this year. Now I get it, it's anime, it's animation, but the basic idea is blue Eyed Samurai is is non diversity as we could get in twenty twenty three. Is Disney moving on from the tone and temperament of the last three or four years. Is Eiger going back to something or new to something different? I think it's a it's a combination of everything, a tom because you know, he needs to go back to the drawing board. He knows that there hasn't really been a new Star Wars or a lucasfilm movie since twenty nineteen. Obviously, the Marvels is in its next kind of iteration, if you will. So there's a lot of things that he needs to do. But the biggest thing I think for them for the Disney studio, and this has kind of been a little bit shocking. And you bring up animation, and that's a really good point because a lot of their recent animated movies have actually not performed as well as you know, some of us would have expected. And the Pixar has kind of been, you know, has had kind of this string of misfires, if you will. And the studio that is really kind of giving them a run for the money is Universal with Illumination. We had, you know, you have Super Mario, you had Minions, all of these animated movies from Universal doing really really well. So Disney obviously going back to the drawing board and kind of doing a lot of rethinking and as Bob Iger said, reinventing the whole franchise. If Bob Biker was the movie is this nightmare the same quote, that's that's a great knocking well. I mean, he tried his best. And if there is you know, any person for the job, any person who can actually fix and rebuild Disney. I think it definitely is Bob Biger and he, you know, kind of delivered signature Bob Biger kind of news yesterday. You know, lots of good news, lots of nuggets of you know, lots of nuggets of good good, you know, optimistic news for investors to kind of hang on to. Obviously, there is a lot of work that remains to be done, but we do know that there are some real growth drivers for Disney. Whether it's the parks business that is seventy percent of Disney's operating income, you know, throwing out about ten billion dollars in operating profits and cash flow. So that definitely is is a huge growth pillar for the company. And then of course it is streaming and how they're kind of going to manage that whole business. You know, we know that they're in the process of consolidating Hulu. You know, the big question is how they're going to manage the esp and transition. And you know, whether that then that Disney bundle, the streaming bundle, really becomes the competitor, a true competitor to Netflix. Is rebuilding a euphemism for shutting it down in terms of streamlining certain businesses and getting off selling the rest of it. Yeah, so he seemed to actually walk back a little bit of you know, the linear TV commentary. I know we've talked a lot about ABC and some of the other networks kind of being up for sale, but he also did say that there is a huge cost opportunity when it comes to you know, those linear networks, and so they've actually, you know, the Charter deal that they recently inked was was kind of a catalyst for them kind of you know, shutting down a lot of you know, the smaller networks networks that they are that they don't consider core, and I think that's what they're going to do. They are definitely going to streamline the business. You're absolutely right, Lisa. I'm not sure when or how the sale is necessarily going to happen, but he did Eigers seem to suggest that even if a sale doesn't happen right away, there are a lot of synergies and there are a lot of cost efficiencies that they can hopefully extract over the next few months. Okay, so this one's a tough one to answer, but explore the question with us if you can. Tom mentioned who's buying. If they're selling, who's buying Where did the buyers come from? So it could be private equity. I mean we know that there have there has been interest from certain parties Byron Island, but Byron Allen was one who kind of made a bid for for you know, the ABC and some of the networks. You know, again, private equity would always is interested in, you know, the TV assets because they do. Yes, it is an industry that is in secular decline, but at the end of the day, it does throughout a lot of cash and that is valuable. So yeah, again it's a little bit of a wait and watch. I mean there have been there has been some chatter about whether the leagues would be interested in kind of going and getting a broadcast asset. I mean broadcast assets like ABC don't come up for sale very often, so you know, maybe it is something that that the league and a leak can potentially consider for reach interesting. Gaitha, appreciate the update. You'll valuable. We appreciate your time. Geithor Reconnaz and the have Bloomberg Intelligence. Ellen Wall joining us now Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council and author of Saudi Inc. Ellen to that point, Saudi's energy minister came out and said, it has nothing to do with demand, This is just price manipulation. Demand is still very strong. What did you make of that? Well, I think that he always has a bone to pick with the as he called him, the speculators, So I'm not surprised to see him talking about how, you know, this is all a financial thing and it's all due to speculators and it's not a you know, supply demand issue. But I think, you know, obviously there's always you know, speculation in the market, and we did see a whole lot of fund managers dumping oil off the futures this past week, so I'm sure he's focused on that. But the fact remains that the market is reacting to what it thinks is lower demand from China, and whether or not that's actually true, I think remains to be seen. It's always difficult to gauge what exactly is going on in China. What the market's reacting to was news that refining margins are soft, and you know, Chinese refineries aren't making as much, and so you know they're interpreting that as weak demand. Now, how does that translate into whether China reduces its imports, and there was some indication that they are going to be reducing oil imports. In fact, one of the interesting things that we've seen is that Iranian oil exports in September and October have been lower than they were in August. They hit a big high in August, but now we're seeing declines and there's some speculation that may be due to the sanctions enforcement, but it's much more likely due to declining demand from China. And we've got Saudi y A holding a million barrels a day off the market. I do think Saudi Arabia is in the best position to be able to gauge Chinese demand, and it may be that this Chinese demand is looking a bit soft now. But you know, Abdozi's been someone is looking at the longer picture and the longer game, and he sees that that is strong well. And with great respect to your book, which is definitive, we can take these tensions at least back to the Saudi Yemeni War of nineteen thirty four. The Ibn Saud family has dealt with this for pushing one hundred years the distance to the south. Give us the modern treatment of how Riodd and Jiada look at Yemen today. Yemen is basically a thorn in their side right now. They don't like the Houthies, any group like the Houthies has Bulah Hamas. All of those groups, while well, you might think that ideologically there are similarities and matchups there, they are essentially a threat to the Saudi monarchy. The Saudi monarchy is like, you know, they're they're like the stated old you know, conservative guy who always votes the same way and always says the same thing for breakfast. You know, they're they're the status quo. And any group that's looking to change the status quo, even if there are similarities in terms of say religious extremism or religious ideology, that's seen as a threat. And what's a bit disturbing is that despite prolonged military campaigns by the Saudis and the UAE, they haven't been able to dislodge the Whoi's from Yemen. In fact, if anything, they're more entrenched. And so I do think that given the fact that the who these are at least claiming to be involved in the Israel Hamas conflict, you'll be interesting to see if the Saudis maybe use this as an excuse to really try to get them out of Yemen once and for all, or if they'll be a bit embarrassed by somebody else taking them out. And then the conservative guy, as you call Saudi Arabia their treatment of the shades of Palestine, how do you interpret that, doctor Wald? Now that that is a big question, because what we've got on one hand is King Salmon, who is nominally the king of Saudi Arabia, and he is vehemently I mean vehemently anti Israel pro Palestinian. I mean, this is a guy who thinks that, you know, the Mossad was responsible for nine to eleven and has said so, you know, in public on television. So he is a huge barrier to any kind of reprochement between Saudi Arabia and Israel. That being said, his son, who's really doing most of the ruling, the day to day ruling, seems much more inclined to use rapprochemant with Israel as a way to get what he wants or what he thinks he needs from the United States. And in fact, it seemed like that was about to be a very successful deal before this latest conflict derailed all that, and I don't think that the general battle, you know, the general lines that are drawn here are going to change. But I do think, you know, if if King Solomon wasn't wasn't there, I think we'd see a much faster progression towards Saudi Israeli normalization. I don't think we're going to see quite with the UAE or Jordan has But I do think that that he that that NBS sees it as a beneficial thing or at least a really good UH tool to get other things that he needs, like support for obtaining nuclear power and military pact with the United States. Just real quick here, how does Saudi Arabia view the production in the US. It's gotten to a record level and made all of these concerns about demand. I think that they they have kind of come to terms with the fact that the US is going to produce, with the US is going to produce, and there really isn't much they can do about it. I think they were probably pretty pleased to see that there's more consolidation in the oil industry. I think that they see that as good for production and for companies who are looking at the signs of supply and demand and aren't just pumping, pumping, pumping just to stay ahead the way that we saw in twenty fifteen, twenty sixteen, and so I think that they see this as you know, this is where it is right now, and it's not always necessarily going to be this high. Ell in a wonderful brief, particularly those comments on Yemen. Thank you so much, Ellen Wald. Atlanta Council can't say enough about Saudi inc. It is absolutely definitive. Subscribe to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast on Apple, Spotify and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live every weekday starting at seven am Eastern Bloomberg dot Com, the iHeartRadio app tune In, and the Blue Bomberg Business app. You can watch us live on Bloomberg Television and always. I'm the Bloomberg Terminal. Thanks for listening. I'm Tom Keen, and this is BloombergSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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transcript:This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene, along with Jonathan Farrow and Lisa Abramowitz. Join us each day for insight from the best and economics, geopolitics, finance and investment. Subscribe to Bloomberg Surveillance on demand on Apple, Spotify and anywhere you get your podcasts, and always on Bloomberg dot Com, the Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg Business App. What a joy to see her in London. Sree Kachigovin and joins us right now, senior research economists at Aberdeen three. I'm absolutely fascinated by how the US stands alone, how Jerome Powell yesterday stood alone with massive stimulus leading into massive real GDP. Does the United Kingdom, where Governor Bailey stands now, do they need stimulus to keep it going? I think stimulus would probably not be a good idea at this point. Really, what we want to tackle is inflation. Now. The Bank of England have a very challenging backdrop. Growth outlook is weakening, but we still have very elevated inflation pressures. Now inflation is past the peak, it has started to decelerate. However, energy costs are still quite elevated. The headline inflation is still very high. And also we have even though those multi price based effects will start to unwind over time, we still have very sticky core services and wage pressures in place. So stimulus right now would not be a good idea for the UK. Now it's not restrictive fiscal background at the moment, but further stimulus would actually not be helpful with the Here's a fun fact from the Bloomberg News story that Lucy White wrote for US. Ben Bernanke actually attended the Bank of England's meeting as an observer. It's part of his review into the UK central banks forecasting communications. And of course this comes as Bailey has faced some criticism that they didn't move quickly enough to respond to inflation. Sree, can you compare and contrast the efficacy of communication at the BAIE versus the FED. I think, as we mentioned earlier, there was a conversation about group think. There is a split within the within the Bank of England, and I think the communication has been quite clear from the various members. We've had the arguments for staying on hold, the arguments for perhaps another an additional hike, and all of those are quite consistent actually with the data that we're seeing. But it seems that on the whole we are witnessing switch towards a focus on growth and the weaker activity data and some greater faith in terms of inflation actually passed the peak and decelerating from here. So we're also seeing there. So we have a signal from the split in the vote, and we also have that signal well, very very clear in terms of rates are going to be on hold for a meaningful period of time, even if, as we expect, the economy enters a recession, rates are going to remain quite elevated. And that's quite a burden for small companies in particular who are much more sensitive to the rate cycle. They are facing a profit squeeze. There is a bit of an issue there in terms of future business investment and so there are a number of challenges there, particularly for the smaller, smaller firms. So that's something that the Bank of England are going to have to really be wary of. Yeah, credit availability for small firm is always an issue, whether it's stateside or across the pond street. When it comes to the stimulus versus austerity debate, that time was referencing how does the Bank of England's decision to keep rates on hold for a second straight meeting and warn about a possible recession, warn about the need to perhaps raise rates in the future of inflation reaccelerates. How does that restrain or limit the government's options when it comes to supporting the economy. I think the government is also very aware, and we have heard from Sunak p at the Prime Minister. We have heard that there is a focus on inflation even within the government. Yes, they do have an election coming up, but they're worried about stimulus too soon and too much stimulus too soon. So I think they're going to pair back on any measures that are going to fuel inflation. Further, I think that's also concerned from them, get every challenging decision for them, given that there is an election on the horizon. Are all the gains in the United Kingdom focused on London? I mean, I mean, is it like, you know, the dominance of Paris and France. Are all the economic gains which you have been tangible here have they been focused on the south of England? Well, there has been a big debate for a number of years with regards to the regional disparities, and that was something that for a few years there have been some focus on what are the policies that can help level up the economic outlook. However, it has been quite challenging in order to do that with the pandemic recovery from the pandemic. And I think the leveling up policies may be, you know, they're on the horizon in the future, but right now, really the focus is quite narrow. That regional disparity, unfortunately, is still very much there. Christrie, thank you so much. Cut your govid in with us with Aberdeen joining us now. On the other points in the Wars of Washington, Gregory Vellier, he's chief US Policy Strategistic AGF Investments. Greg I believe it is November, that's twelve months away from an election. Take the drama of October in our many wars and fold it into how things change twelve months before an election. How does your world change given the pending one year out election. Well, good morning time. So many unknowns. I'd say one big one is Benjamin Netanaihu. If you saw the extraordinary story in the New York Times on Monday talking about how Israel and Netanaihu were blindsided by Hamas they got totally caught off guard. There's going to be recriminations. I think that has to be looked at very carefully. There's the FED and there's this continuing fight in the House between fairly moderate Republicans and the right wing. That fight is about to resume within days, right, But you've got a right wing Speaker of the House. Now, shouldn't that restore some order in the House. One would think Scarlet wouldn't one, But I'm not quite sure about that. I think that even a handful four or five House Republicans could block this next spending bill. And there are Republicans in the House who don't want to spend money on Ukraine, as you guys know, and some lukewarm attitudes toward Israel. But the big fights still is a budget. We have a budget deadline in about two weeks and they're not close to being done. Yeah, and so we're watching that November seventeenth deadline very carefully. I want to get your take also on what the economy means for the presidential election tries. It might The White House has been selling Bidenomics, but it's not doing very well. When consumers are feeling pretty sour. What does the current FED policy mean for the economy in twenty twenty four. Well, I think there's maybe some relief among consumers that the FED didn't raise race. But I thought you and Tom a few minutes ago hit it perfectly talking about food prices. I mean, food prices are up. What did you guys say, nineteen percent cumulative? Yeah, over three years, over three years, But that leaves an awful lot of people, maybe not us, but leaves an awful lot of people discouraged that this is not improving. Yeah. What's important there, Scarlett, is the USDA with this is really good data from the US Department of Agriculture. They say that for the have nots of America, it's not third world, but thirty percent of their compensation is going to food, which means thirty percent of their conversation is not going to discretionary spending or anything else that usually supports the economy. Greg, I want to bring it back once again to FED policy in the economy in twenty twenty four because J. Powell's term expires as FED chaer in early twenty twenty six. So whoever wins the twenty four to four election, would get to pick the next FED chair. What does that mean to you? And I bring this up because if Donald Trump wins the nomination, yes he nominated Powell as fedchair, but he also nominated Judy Shelton as a FED governor. Yeah. I think if Biden wins, obviously he'll try to keep at Jerome Powell. If Trump wins, he will fire and get rid of Powell as quickly as possible, and that will I think cost some anxiety for the markets. You know, one other quick point I would make about what we could see in the next year or so that maybe is outside of the box. I go to piece this morning on Robert F. Kennedy Junior. There's a new poll out overnight from Quinnipiac showing him a twenty two percent that I was surprised. I think a lot of people were surprised to see that. And I do think that he will take away from Joe Biden, young people, independence, African Americans, environmentalists. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Is not going to be the next president, but he may determine who will be. Craig Villie, thank you so much. With AGF investments, we can rip up the script with a gentleman that worked in the macroeconomic section at the FED. Jonathan Pingle joins the course with UBS, their chief US economists, John I'm sorry, I got to go here, and Julia Cornado XBMB Perry by Macro turns his way out in front of this. Are we completely misguessing the efficiency, the productivity, the technological advancement of America? Are we just flat out to pessimistic? Well, I mean it's hard to know what the expectations are, right there aren't that many people as in the weeds on productivity, you know, on the immigration rebound as Julia, and you know, give Julia a lot of props since we were at the board together a year long time ago. But I would say two things, and Sheer Powell touched on this yesterday. One is, you know, we have been seeing a pretty impressive rebound and labor supply and that's been both the combination of you know, a significant improvement and net international migration coming out of the pandemic. In addition to you know, some groups like prime age women punching out new all time highs and their labor force participation rates. And you know, we've certainly been writing about that, and Julia's done a good job as well on the productivity stuff. Though we do have to remember that productivity was incredibly weak as we went through the pandemic and immediately coming out, so we did have a fair amount of catch up to do. And when we look at sort of the longer run trends after today's data, just mathematically you are going to be a little bit above the longer run trends. So it is good news, but you're actually really still not that far from what we were seeing pre COVID. But I will say together, I think it's right. We're seeing nominal wage gains slow, and some of that is these supply side improvements and unit labor costs dropping. You know, we were forecasting a seven to ten drop. You know that is the result of the slowness we saw in average hourly earnings combined with basically five percent GDP growth in the third quarter. So that's a good supply side story. Tell me about course services. The chairman didn't talk about it much yesterday, but are we seeing a service sector disinflation to give confidence to an outright goods deflation? We are? I mean, we've had We've had some positive news on the core services over the last several months, but I would say we're sort of not out of the woods yet, right Like, you know, I think that's one of the reasons Chair Powell yesterday, you know, and Mike McKee did a great job with his you know, trying to pin the chair down on the objective versus subjective decision. But what we want to see is a little bit more slowing in the labor market in order to see more slowing in those components of inflation, because if we look at the ECI, it does look like wage gains are still a little too risk to be consistent with sustainable two percent inflation. So I do think the Chair and Mike was just saying this, they do need to get the labor market to slow here if they are going to achieve their mandate and restore price stability. All right, this is clearly a big, big week for labor market data. You had ADP employment change jolts and of course jobless claims this morning. Unit labor costs as well in productivity. We know that the UAW has come to agreements with the automakers, but if you are an union organizer and I'm thinking of the Actors Guild, for instance, that is still on strike. What is your takeaway from the flood of data that we've gotten on the labor market right now? Well, land market's still tight, right so you know, so you know, even I mean, and I don't really think you need to look much beyond the unemployment rate at three point eight percent to say, you know, the nation's at full employment and markets are tight, and you know you've got a point here where there might be some bargaining power for workers. The other interesting thing about a number of these strikes is there are a lot of non wage issues at stake. You know, you're talking about, you know, the use of AI for the actors, you're talking about, you know, the shift to electric vehicles amongst the UAW. And that's actually been sort of an interesting aspect where, you know, a lot of these labor negotiations it's not just about the wages, you know, it's really also about sort of these changing industry dynamics that they want to protect their workers from. So how does that show up in the data, How does that show up in the economy in what's measurable, Well, we should definitely see the impact of the UAW strike tomorrow. In tomorrow's data, you know, the BLS released their strike report. You know, between the strikes the Big Three and Mac Trucks, that should be about a thirty thousand job reduction in motor vehicle and parts assemblies employment. You'll see it in Table B and B one of the employment situation release. So we should definitely see that way on the employer report tomorrow, but that'll rebound in the subsequent in the subsequent report. And I think the bigger picture is that you have put in place for some of these contracts, you know, a return to things like you know, cost of living adjustments, et cetera. So this should generally mean for these workers somewhat firmer wage gains over the next few years than would have otherwise been the case. Jonathan Tingle, thank you for the brief, particularly there quickly on advancing productivity is with UBS. I love saying this the Union Bank of Switzerland. We're going to get complicated here and straighten this out. Hulu being taken out by Disney. Brian robertson Comcast unloading the Dogkeetha Ranganathen of Bloomberg Intelligence is truly encyclopedic on this near nine billion dollar that transaction. Getha, I'm lost here. Is Comcast happy today that they unloaded the stock or is this the deal of a lifetime for mister Eiger? So this is this is, as you just pointed out on this is a pretty complicated transaction. All that we got yesterday was that Disney is definitely buying out comcast thirty three percent stake. So Disney already owns two thirds of Hulu, so we know for certain that Comcast is offloading it who Disney is buying it? Now the biggest question here is going to be price. So we know the floor value was set at twenty seven billion. Disney actually came out yes, they're saying that they do expect to make that initial payment of you know, eight it's actually nine billion minus some capital calls, which which is why you get the eight point six billion. But really the point is going to be how much greater than twenty seven billion is the valuation going to be? And that is where all of the complexity is going to arise over the next few months. I mean, John Pharaoh is addicted to Hulu. He's just you know, he like binge watches Love Island USA and the rest of it. GITHA doesn't matter who watches this stuff in this transaction or is this just people distant from what we watch every day? I mean, Hulu has forty eight million subscribers some so it is a very very successful streaming service. You're absolutely right. It has a very deep catalog of classics. It has all of us Keith, You're not going to sell surveillances audience. The Love Island USA is a classic. Continue well, it has you know, it has a lot of the must watch shows, right you brought up the Bear Only Murders in the Building is show. It has a lot of shows that come up from broadcast TV, so it's a great catch up service. And it also has kind of this live Hulu Plus live option as well. So there are a lot of different flavors that it offers. But I think the biggest thing for Disney is really the ad component of it. If there is any streaming service out there that has got advertising right, it is Hulu. We know that Netflix is struggling with that right now, so is Disney Plus. So are a lot of the established services. Amazon is looking to bring an advertising service. Hulu is the one established brand already bringing in about three three and a half billion dollars in AD revenue. So that infrastructure is a gold mine and is super valuable to Disney and for that reason, Hulu is one of the few profitable streamers. Netflix of course another profitable streamer here. But what is it about the ad packaging that Hulu has figured out. As a consumer of Hulu, it's really frustrating to see the same Tom Brady hurts commercial over and over again. No, you're absolutely right, But at the same time, I mean, this is a company, you know, obviously they have They are the ones that have ads, that have had ads on now for the longest period of time. They've built all these different they've built very a very very robust AD stack, and they've also kind of made all these different you know, relationships with advertisers. Of course, you have the larger Disney brand as well at work there, but that is something where they've really been able to crack the code. I mean, Hulu is one service where you have majority of you know, the consumers on the on the ads supported option, which is what has made it such, you know, so successful in what it's set out to do. Disney says it has enough cash and credit to buy Hulu, whereas Comcasts will be using the proceeds to boost its accelerate its stock repurchase program. When this financial transaction is completed, does it move the needle at all for either Disney or Comcast stock. I think it definitely moves the needle for Disney because this removes a key overhang. Remember, there are so many strategic questions that are still kind of pending for Barb Biger, whether it's the future of ESPN, whether it's the sale of the ABC network, and so, you know, kind of just closing this deal with Hulu and then integrating it with Disney Plus, I think just removes a key overhang for the stock. Five years out, do they mate. Do you see Hulu combined with Disney Plus to really take on Netflix as a combined adult in kids' entity. Absolutely, I think that is what the plan is. I mean, at the end of the day, they are looking to get synergies across the board in their streaming product because Disney Plus is still losing money. It is still going to lose about two and a half three billion dollars this year. But I think when you combine this we're looking at savings of at least one one and a half billion dollars. I think it's definitely going to accelerate streaming crafitability for Disney. Synergy to me means rebundling, So you're going to have to pay some big, heftier price to get all these different channels or streamers into twenty. That's what Paul Sweeney would say as well. What I'm fascinated by is when we're all said and done with this. I mean, there's Hulu and there's Disney Plus, and they're going to merge and they're gonna take on Netflix. Keitha, do you see a true duopoly out there? Is that where streaming is heading? It definitely is heading there, Tom, There's no doubt about it. I mean Netflix is far ahead of the competition. They have almost two hundred and fifty million subscribers. We do see them getting to three hundred million over you know, maybe the next few years. But yes, this is kind of very much turning into you know, Netflix versus Disney versus most probably Amazon. So yeah, maybe a tryal Max HBO. Yeah, that's a tough one, you know, Hbo Max. You know, she's got to be a second tier service, second tier look at it. She's just like, Wow, you know what's so bad about that? And this goes, this goes with Discovery Plus and Max and all that is. You know where am I going to see ninety day fiance? I know you're addicted to it. If it doesn't work, O Githa ruganof and thank you so much. I think I learned something there. Pierre Farragu wrote the Black Books for Bernstein and Technology for years. Yes, he's got a fancy title Global Technology Infrastructure at New Street, but the answer is once and forever he will always own the Black Books over at Alliance Bernstein Peer. Thank you, Pierre, Thank you so much for joining us. And you have been cautious on Apple. Is now a time to buy the shares? After the lassitude that we've seen over the last twelve months. I would have liked to say yes, but unfortunately, and the reason why I would have liked to say yes is because sentiment is very very low on the name. You know, sixty percent by ratings and forty percent sale and a neutral rating for that name. It's very very It's as low as can be, I would say. So we've had like a very slow yeer. You know, three after in a row in negative growth, we're getting back to politive growth probably on the guide, but it's just because we're hitting like the the easier compare now and so that slowdown, like the stock reacted relatively well to that slowdown. If you look at the Apple stock, it roughly tracked the NASDAK. So not much happened on the stock. And the reason why you know I wouldn't jump on board now is first not a significant pullback so valuation. You're still paying like a hefty premium for our early It's partly justified, of course, for the quality of the franchise. But you know what happens next that really creates a surprise and gets the stock to work. From here, the high kinmentalist the harder matter pere single digit revenue growth. So I went back to the pandemic and basically sales are up forty seven percent from twenty nineteen, but the free cares flow generation after that is up seventy one percent. In your caution, are you suggesting that that formula they have of operating leverage, of generating ebit, of generating free cash flow is now broken? Given single digit revenue growth. No, I think it still works. But you know, of five percent revenue growth, you don't you don't generate as much free castural growth. So the way I like to think about it is out of like you know, between three and five percent revenue growth apper it can generate you know, you know, above five percent, like six seven percent earnings DIVIDI and free casual growth on a sustainable basis through like systematic buyback, through operating leverages that there are. So there is definitely a huge amount of quality there and a very strong benitry as you just mentioned. So all that is worth su premium. When you look at Apple today, it's straight on twenty seven times, you know, for for our earnings status and plus names who grow between five and ten percent anum, the overall economics are treading on like twenty two times, So you have a significant premium. So you won't have like a evaluation surprise out of this very healthy, very high quality model. And so when you own the Stoke today, you have to to believe this premium is going to remain, which I think is fine, but you can't expect like a sudden jump and a sudden increase in valuation multiple unless you have a new growth story, and that's where it's kind of difficult to expect that to cor right. The China part of the equation is not a growth story for Apple right now. How is May sixty pro getting a lot of attention kind of stealing the thunder in many ways? And Apple bears will always point to the China demand for iPhone fifteen as a reason to not be optimistic. How does Tim Cook frame the negative headlines that are hitting Apple out of China, whether it's the sixty pro or whether it's Beijing's ban of using foreign phones for government workers or stayed owned enterprises. Yeah, so I think it's a very good question. It's a source of concern. Interestingly, I don't think it's going to materialize that quickly because like the new Qua Way phone is really like in early innings, you know, they probably don't have a strong case to be that competitive against the iPhone. But it's true that you know, in this junk you mentioned since twoenty and twenty term, a lot of that was like what we're getting out of the picture in China and Apple really like gaining about twenty million XI units iPhone units combined with an increase in a spit and so that part of the business I think is true is kind of a trick over the next couple of years. Because China, China might be able to put together alternative to the AFO, the aphone remained like an exceptional product. You know, this is the only phone at a string animeter manufacturing a note for the main shift exceptional quality, exceptional like integrated software and hardware that there are. So I wouldn't say the Chinese are going to create the fund that can compete with the iPhone, but we know that in the past about twenty million funds we are selling at Huawei, and when Huawei dies appeared that market seem to have moved straight into Apple's hands. I see, and that's that's a concern of course. So how about Apple and AI? I mean, Apple was kind of left behind when Chat, GPT and all the other AI tools you know, took over the zeitgeist. I know Apple's working on things with relaated relative to Siri, and how can incorporate more generative AI into its products? Is this something that has reached a point where investors can can model it? No, So I think on the business model of Apple, you know, with making all its profits from selling hardware and then selling like mostly subscription services over this hardware, Like you know, the kind of like magical one trick where you can chart like thirty dollars a months for a generative AI based services that does doesn't really exist. The way I see it is that for Apple, generative are is going to be more of a defensive move. Siria has never been exceptionally impressive in terms of what it can achieve in terms of voice recognition and user user service. Apoba is going to continue to do their best to enhance the overall user experience with generative AI, But I don't see that as like as a revenue enhancement for them as it could be for like a Microsoft or Google and metal and advertising and things like that. Heard you just to finish here, is the Apple such a animal like you were mugged by your kids to go out and buy more toys like bram or like food like King. I mean you're on the same game. Are you suggesting that this is a stock that treads water for five years or are you actually looking for a diminished share price? So that's I think from from here over the next five years, I think that's a stock that can compound with its earnings power or its dividend power, so you know, it can compound like in single digits, maybe high single digits, so it's not it's not too bad for a very high quality name. And then I would look at buying it only if there is a bit of a dislocation at some point, like a loss in confidence if this quality I see that Apple wasn't there all the time. And so if you see like a weakness coming out of China or things like that, and if the stock is hurt by that, I think I would be I would be baking to revisit and look at, you know, getting into the name at a more attractive evaluation because when you're talking, companding and valuation is almost everything, because that's that's what drives, you know, your ability to buy back your stock more efficiently and things like that. So I really think you need a lower melteaper to make Apple compelling, like you know, single legy companding opportunity, and then a kind of like a breakthrough opportunity, you know, an opportunity to increase prices, to increase in clevolume, to launch a new products. Difficult to see that on the horizon. To be honest, Pierre, thank you for the brief peer fargu for some real Apple caution. They're different than the fanboys that so many people speak of. Subscribe to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live every weekday starting at seven am Eastern Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can watch us live on Bloomberg Television and always on the Bloomberg terminal. Thanks for listening. I'm Tim Keane and this is Blumber HmSee 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Mandeep Singh, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Technology Analyst, breaks down a busy week of tech earnings starting with Microsoft and Alphabet. Marvin Loh, State Street Senior Global Macro Strategist, says the Fed will maintain its higher-for-longer policy for longer than many expect. Greg Valliere, AGF Investments Chief US Policy Strategist, believes President Biden has enough support in Congress to eventually pass an aid package for Israel and Ukraine. Steven Ricchiuto, Mizuho Securities Chief US Economist, says the Fed has shifted its priority from inflation to employment. Katy Kaminski, AlphaSimplex Chief Research Strategist, says we may not yet have seen the bottom of the long-end of the bond market.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

John Bolton, former National Security Advisor and former US Ambassador to the UN, says the US has failed to coherently monitor the situation in the Middle East for close to two decades. Meera Pandit, Global Market Strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, expects to see continued challenges to the bond market. Greg Valliere, Chief US Policy Strategist at AGF Investments, says the case for US aid to Ukraine and Israel is self-evident. Alex Brazier, BlackRock Investment Institute Deputy Head, says that we've seen the end of the 'great moderation.' Deborah Cunningham, CIO at Federated Hermes Global Liquidity Markets, believes the Fed's message of higher-for-longer remains truthful.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Sonali Basak, Bloomberg News, discusses Citi, JPMorgan and Wells Fargo earnings. Ken Leon, CFRA Director of Equity Research, says banks can continue to enjoy net interest income growth if they "hold the line" in deposit costs and the Fed stays higher for longer. Greg Boutle, BNP Paribas Head of US Equity & Derivatives Strategy, believes the Fed has put in its last hike but there is a risk they go again. Greg Valliere, AGF Investments Chief US Policy Strategist, says the current state of Washington is a circus and a clown show. Rep. Mike Lawler, (R) New York, discusses the Israel-Hamas war, as well as Scalise ending his bid for House speaker. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Talk Money with Jim ShoemakerJoin Jim Shoemaker, Greg Valliere, and Scott Jordan as we hear an “Update from our Nation's Capital” and “Estate Planning Tips for Retirement.” Shannon Dyson asks an important question; “Why Is Your Health Plan Designed to Benefit Everyone but YOU and YOUR Employees.”                                               "Helping You Make the Most of Your Money"Jim Shoemaker, CFP, ChFC, is an investment advisor representative offering advisory services through Cetera Investment Advisers, a registered investment adviser. Securities offered through Cetera Advisor Networks, member FINRA/SIPC. Cetera is under separate ownership from any other named entity. Shoemaker Financial is independently owned and operated. 2176 West St, Ste. 100, Germantown, TN 38138

Andrew Balls, PIMCO Global Head of Fixed Income says the U.S. 10-year looks attractive right now. Gilles Moec, AXA Group Chief Economist compares the European economy to the US. Geoff Yu,  BNY Mellon, Senior Market Strategist says there's a risk of a wage-price spiral. Greg Valliere, AGF Investments, Chief US Policy Strategist says, there is no logical successor in the Democratic party for President Biden. Amrita Sen, Energy Aspects Director of Research says oil will hit $100 a barrel by Halloween. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Steven Ricchiuto, Mizuho Securities US Chief Economist, says there's a lot of idiosyncratic risk out there. Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab Chief Investment Strategist, says this is more likely a rally in a bear market. Thierry Wizman, Macquarie Global Interest Rates and Currencies Strategist, says Fed Chair Powell could "pat itself on the back" as the US sees lower inflation and a better economy but "I don't think it's time for him to do that." Greg Valliere, AGF Investments Chief US Policy Strategist, discusses the first GOP presidential debate tonight. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Greg Valliere, chief U.S. policy strategist at AGF Investments, says there's a pleasant surprise coming in that the Federal Reserve will not have to be too aggressive to get inflation under better control, noting that he expects a slowdown in the second half -- fueled by labor issues including a potential strike at UPS -- but that the downturn stops short of being a recession. Also on the show, Kevin Crain discusses a Bank of America study showing that the average 401() account balance for men exceeds that of women by 50 percent, David Trainer of New Constructs puts a stock in the Danger Zone that he expects to have one of the biggest earnings misses when quarterly earnings start rolling out in the next few weeks plus, in the Market Call, Manny Weintraub of Spears Abacus talks stocks that produce and compound income.

 Talk Money with Jim Shoemaker Jim Shoemaker, Greg Valliere, Steve Anderson, and Scott Jordan will bring a packed program today. Greg Valliere brings an "Update on Washington", Steve Anderson, and Scott Jordan share relevant information on "Stock Market Basics", "Portfolio Construction", and "Estate Planning Basics".   "Helping You Make the Most of Your Money"

Chris Harvey, Wells Fargo Securities Head of Equity Strategy, says we're seeing more of an economic malaise than recession. Frances Donald, Manulife Investment Management Global Chief Economist & Strategist, says we're headed into an environment where 2-3% inflation will become the "norm." Amanda Lynam, BlackRock Head of Macro Credit Research, says there's room for spreads to move higher. Greg Valliere, AGF Investments Chief US Policy Strategist, says the number one story to watch out for this summer is Ukraine. Ginni Rometty, Former IBM CEO & Author of "Good Power: Leading Positive Change in our Lives, Work and World," says there's little tolerance for AI to be wrong.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It's been quite a week with Wall Street, Washington, and The World piling into the wreck of the debt ceiling crisis -- yet we appear unscathed. Is compromise and coming together in the middle signaling a new way forward? Michael Farr welcomes Greg Valliere to decipher the politics and policy. Plus, Dan Mahaffee gives his analysis. But first, Michael is joined by Jim Iuorio for his monthly look at the markets, and what he is looking for to signal a broadening of the rally.

Brian Levitt, Inveso Global Market Strategist, says we are close to the end of the tightening cycle. Mandeep Singh, Sr. Technology Analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence on Nvidia's march toward $1 trillion market value. Greg Valliere, Chief US Policy Strategist at AGF investments says, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy is a "serious player" following the weekend's debt ceiling negotiations. Katy Kaminski, Chief Research Strategist at Alphasimplex says, she's looking for a breakout in US treasury yields. Lee Ferridge, Head of Macro Strategy at State Street, says sterling/US dollar will hit $1.15 by the second half of this year.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

French startup Zephalto is offering flights to the edge of space in a pressurized capsule attached to a helium balloon. The firm says the craft will take off from a French spaceport and ascend for around 90 minutes, reaching an altitude of 25 kilometers (82,000 feet). Not surprisingly, given this is a French company, one of the main attractions of the trip is feasting on food prepared by Michelin-star chefs. Joining Julia to discuss is Zephalto founder Vincent Farret d'Astiès.  Also on today's show: Daniel Ives, Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at Wedbush Securities; Greg Valliere, Chief US Policy Strategist at AGF. To learn more about how CNN protects listener privacy, visit cnn.com/privacy

Savita Subramanian, BofA Global Research Head of US Equity & Quantitative Strategy, raises her 2023 target for the S&P 500.Greg Valliere, AGF Investments Chief US Policy Strategist, discusses debt-limit talks between Biden and McCarthy. Julian Emanuel, Evercore ISI Chief Equity & Quantitative Strategist, sees a recession starting in the second half of this year. Torsten Slok, Apollo Global Management Chief Economist, says a recession is on the horizon. Bill Winters, Standard Chartered CEO, is not expecting another banking crisis. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Stuart Kaiser, Citi Head of US Equity Trading Strategy, says we're "bouncing into a ceiling and a floor" between 3,800 and 4,200 on the S&P 500. Lindsey Piegza, Stifel Chief Economist, says 2Q GDP could actually surprise to the upside. Oscar Munoz, Former United Airlines CEO, discusses the state of the airline industry. Janno Lieber, MTA Chair & CEO, discusses safety and affordability of New York City public transit. Greg Valliere, AGF Investments Chief US Policy Strategist, discusses Biden, McCarthy's upcoming debt-limit meeting. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Fears of a potential debt default by the United States continue to rise as a deadline to get a deal done approaches. President Joe Biden is meeting with Republican lawmakers today to try to get the issue resolved. Joining us to discuss is Greg Valliere, chief US policy strategist at AGF Investments.  Also on today's show: Melinda Haring, nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center; Jared Spataro, Corporate Vice President, Modern Work & Business Applications at Microsoft. To learn more about how CNN protects listener privacy, visit cnn.com/privacy

Talk Money with Jim Shoemaker Join Jim Shoemaker, Greg Valliere, Daniel Irwin, and Scott Jordan covering today's critical issues. "Update from Washington”, “Stay the Course", and "Scam School... Data Breeches and Social Media".    "Helping You Make the Most of Your Money"

Join us on this week's FarrCast as Michael Farr welcomes Kenny Polcari for a discussion on the markets -- and what they both think the market is missing. Dan Mahaffee gives his thoughts on the State of the Union, and Michael welcomes special guest Greg Valliere for a deep dive into geo-political threats to the economy, and the dangers of the upcoming debt ceiling debate. With insight into Wall Street, Washington, and The World -- it's The FarrCast!

The Biden document drama intensified Friday as the FBI discovered an additional batch of classified papers at his Wilmington, Delaware home. Democrats are increasingly uneasy about the political damage to Biden as he prepares to formally announce his candidacy for a second term. Joining the show to discuss is Greg Valliere, chief US policy strategist at AGF Investments.  Also on today's show: Leland Miller, CEO of the independent data platform China Beige Book. To learn more about how CNN protects listener privacy, visit cnn.com/privacy

Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley Chief US Equity Strategist, says a "nasty earnings recession" could be coming. Jordan Rochester, Nomura G-10 FX Strategist, says the euro can stay supported through January. Amrita Sen, Energy Aspects Director of Research, says China will need all energy products when it reopens. Greg Valliere, AGF Investments Chief US Policy Strategist, discusses the House of Representatives failing to elect a speaker.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Talk Money with Jim Shoemaker Join Jim Shoemaker and Greg Valliere as they uncover the "Current News in Washington". Rob Clement will share "Tips on Caring for an Aging Parent" and Daniel Irwin shares "Scams for the Holiday Season".     "Helping You Make the Most of Your Money"

Joe spoke with AGF Investments Chief U.S. Policy Strategist, Greg Valliere on the to-do list for Congress in the lame duck session, and Craig Singleton, Senior China Fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies on the protests over Xi Jinping's strict Covid-zero policy. Plus, our politics panel Bloomberg Politics Contributors Jeanne Sheehan Zaino and Rick Davis on the Georgia runoff election, the political fallout of the China protests, Donald Trump's dinner date with white supremacist Nick Fuentes and Ye, and My Pillow CEO Mike Lindell's intention to run for Chairman of the RNC. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

With control of the House and Senate up for grabs today, what might the results mean for investors? That's one of the questions we ask today's featured guest, AGF Investments Chief US Policy Strategist Greg Valliere.  Also on today's show: As the crucial COP27 meetings continue, we hear from a former NBA champion who's pioneering a project to prevent climate-related disasters.To learn more about how CNN protects listener privacy, visit cnn.com/privacy

Talk Money with Jim Shoemaker Join Jim Shoemaker and Greg Valliere as they uncover the "Current News in Washington". Dr. Kevin Westbrook gives us "Updates on the Existing Job Market" and Daniel Irwin brings more about "Scam School".   "Helping You Make the Most of Your Money"

Greg Valliere, chief U.S. policy strategist for AGF Investments, says that while there is no sugar-coating the problems of the economy -- inflation, rising interest rates, a rough housing market and more -- the likely recession that lies ahead will be shallow, and will have a reasonable recovery once the Federal Reserve proves that the bitter medicine it is providing to quash inflation won't go overboard and kill the patient. Also on the show, Mark Hulbert discusses his recent column on MarketWatch where he added his own flair to some new academic research showing that the classic "4 percent rule" on retirement withdrawals is leading savers astray and that the proper spending amount to ensure that someone not outlive their money may be less than half of what most people are planning for. Plus Chuck talks about his annual cash-or-candy, trade-or-treat Halloween event and the choices his neighborhood kids went for when they came to his home Tuesday night.

 Andrew Hollenhorst, Citi Chief Us Economist, says he wouldn't be surprised if the Fed's policy rate ends up above 5%. Amrita Sen, Energy Aspects Head of Research, says we could see $100 oil by the end of the year. Lisa Hornby, Schroders Head of US Multi-Sector Fixed Income, says people are excited about fixed income again. Greg Valliere, AGF Investments Chief US Policy Strategist, predicts gridlock in Washington following the midterm elections. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Nathan Sheets, Citi Global Chief Economist, says the global economy is looking soft. Carl Weinberg, High Frequency Economics Chief Economist & Managing Director, says prices are starting to recede in some areas of the economy. Greg Valliere, AGF Investments Chief US Policy Strategist, says Democrats are in trouble for the upcoming midterm election. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Talk Money with Jim Shoemaker Join Jim Shoemaker and Greg Valliere as they uncover News in Washington. Scott Jordan discusses Fundamentals of Investing while Shannon Dyson examines Transparent Pharmacy Benefits.     "Helping You Make the Most of Your Money"

Joe spoke with AGF Investments Chief U.S. Policy Strategist, Greg Valliere on today's celebration of the Inflation Reduction Act at the White House and how inflation will impact the midterms, Frank Maisano, Senior Principal at Bracewell on when we could see Senator Joe Manchin's energy permitting bill. Plus, our politics panel, Bloomberg Politics Contributors Jeanne Sheehan Zaino and Rick Davis on inflation, the Twitter whistleblower testimony and Lindsey Graham's abortion bill. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Claudia Sahm, Jain Family Institute Senior Fellow & Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, sees a disrupted economy beginning to heal. Greg Peters, PGIM Fixed Income Co-CIO, says the bond market is reflecting a new reality. Greg Valliere, AGF Investments Chief US Policy Strategist, explains why the FBI search of Donald Trump's Florida home could be a plus for the former president. Neil Dutta, Renaissance Macro Research Head of US Economic Research, says the economy is not out of the woods. Admiral James Stavridis, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist & "To Risk It All" Author, discusses U.S.-China relations in the wake of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's trip to Taiwan. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg Washington Correspondent Joe Mathieu delivers insight and analysis on the latest headlines from the White House and Capitol Hill, including conversations with influential lawmakers and key figures in politics and policy. Today's guests: Tim Bale, Professor of Politics at Queen Mary University of London on Boris Johnson's refusal to resign despite an unprecedented internal revolt from his Conservative party, Greg Valliere, AGF Investments Chief U.S. policy strategist on the Fed's rate hike decisions, and Bloomberg Politics Contributors Jeanne Sheehan Zaino and Rick Davis on calls for British Prime Minister Boris Johnson to resign, and efforts from the White House to secure Brittney Griner's release home from Russia.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Talk Money with Jim Shoemaker   Join Jim Shoemaker and Greg Valliere with a "Washington Update". Rob Clement and Daniel Irwin bring us up to date on "Elder Abuse" and how to stay on alert for new "Imposter Scams"!   "Helping You Make the Most of Your Money"

Steve Chiavarone, Federated Hermes Head of Multi-Asset Solutions, says the Fed has a lot of work to do to get inflation down. Kathy Jones, Charles Schwab Chief Fixed Income Strategist, says corporate bond issuance is waiting for yields to fall. Jens Nordvig, Exante Data Founder & CEO, says it will be hard for the Fed to switch back to cutting mode after they're done hiking. Greg Valliere, AGF Investments Chief US Policy Strategist, says it's possible Hillary Clinton may run for president again. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Today's guests: Jess Menton, Bloomberg News Equities Reporter, Massachusetts Congressman Stephen Lynch, Bloomberg Politics Contributor Jeanne Sheehan Zaino, Republican Strategist Doug Heye, and AGF Investments Chief U.S. Policy Strategist, Greg Valliere.   See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The FarrCast is back again this week! Inflation is still hot, and Michael Farr and Jim Iuorio give a quick lesson on "demand destruction" and what it means for the broader economy. Dan Mahaffee joins us for the latest on Ukraine and how it colors Sino-US relations. And Michael welcomes special guest Greg Valliere for a look at the current political situation in the US, and how politics may impact policy, and the investment landscape. Coming to you with experts and insiders, it's The FarrCast: Wall Street, Washington, and The World!

Greg Valliere, chief U.S. policy strategist at AGF Investments, says that several interest rate hikes will not sour the economy now, so that if the Federal Reserve doesn't go too far on tightening, there's no reason for a recession. Valliere says that he does expect more recession concerns at the start of 2023, as the economy digests the protracted impact of not just rate hikes but inflation, waning economic stimulus and the offshoots of the war in Ukraine. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com makes a trending commodities fund -- sensitive to both the war and inflation -- his ETF of the Week, Catherine Collinson of the Transamerica Center for Retirement Studies discusses the savers credit and how a majority of Americans don't know that it exists, let alone how to claim it when filing their taxes, and Stephen Dodson of The Bretton Fund talks value investing in the Market Call.