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EP285 - 22021 Full Year and Holiday Data Deep Dive The US Dept of Commerce December Advanced Retail Sales Data is out, which gives us a full look at 2021 and the 2021 holiday season. So Episode 285 is a data deepdive into 2021. If you want to follow along, we've made a deck with all the data available at https://retailgeek.com/2021-commerce-recap Data Sources US Retail & E-Com Sales Data: US Dept of Commerce E-Commerce Estimates: eMarketer Retail Foot Traffic Data: Placer.ai Web Traffic Data: Similar Web Holiday Estimates: Adobe, Salesforce, Mastercard Episode 285 of the Jason & Scot show was recorded on Thursday Jan 20th, 2022. http://jasonandscot.com Join your hosts Jason "Retailgeek" Goldberg, Chief Commerce Strategy Officer at Publicis, and Scot Wingo, CEO of GetSpiffy and Co-Founder of ChannelAdvisor as they discuss the latest news and trends in the world of e-commerce and digital shopper marketing. Transcript Jason: [0:23] Welcome to the Jason and Scot show this is episode 285 being recorded on Thursday January 20th 2022 that's a heck of a lot of 2012's. I'm your host Jason retailgeek Goldberg and as usual I'm here with your Cohoes Sky Wingo. Scot: [0:41] Hey Jason and welcome back Jason Scott chaussures Jason is kind of a shame we neither of us were able to make it in our F but, one of the things I don't miss is every year that I've gone to in our f for the last three times I've went I've had trouble getting there or been stuck there so I think then our F should use this opportunity to move that show out of January and maybe look at something like March or something if they're going to be in New York. Jason: [1:09] Or to the like Bahamas or something. Scot: [1:12] Yeah even better yeah let's make it a destination of it. Jason: [1:17] You know you have my vote I'm not sure you have a majority of votes see you if you have mine that would be awesome. Scot: [1:24] Yeah just watching and it seemed like some folks went and then they had a lot of cancellations so seemed like it was in kind of one of those weird. Hybrid states were if you went and then, person you are going to go see present canceled you sat there in a room with people watching a zoom so that's number Super satisfying but I do think it seemed like some folks you and I know got together and had some dinners and had fund so hopefully that was that was good for everyone. Jason: [1:50] Yeah I had a little bit of foam oh I think you know some people I would have liked to see you know I saw you know social media of them getting together and whatnot and. It's just super bad luck I have a feeling if this show was a month later it would be a lot less controversial that traveled to. Scot: [2:09] Yeah and what did you want to talk about this week. Jason: [2:14] Well you know if we had gone to NRF one of the things that I always like to do it in our f is kind of check in with a lot of our co-workers in the industry and kind of you know get a consensus, about how the year ended up for everyone and what they thought the big issues were going to be for 20 21. So since we didn't get to do that at shop at NRF I thought maybe we could do it on this podcast for our listeners. Scot: [2:42] Yeah that sounds good and then I know you always put together a little for your clients kind of the summary deck and I know that's hard for our podcast listeners so do you have a way to solve that. Jason: [2:55] Yeah so what I thought I would do I put together like a 36 slide deck completely full of numbers and what I thought I would do is describe all of the graphs on the podcast. Scot: [3:09] Sounds good that sounds good and it's going to be a we'll go through it and intricate detail data point by day. Jason: [3:14] Yeah because the one complaint I get about the show is that it's not hard enough to listen to. Scot: [3:18] That's that's from your mom. Jason: [3:22] So that probably isn't going to work but here so here's what I did think I do like instead of, just charging the fortune that we charge clients to go through this presentation I thought I would make a version of the whole deck available to all our listeners so in the event you do want to follow along with the visuals and see the actual data, we will put a link in the show notes you can hit pause for a second, you can open up the deck and I will tell you what slides were talking about in case you want to follow along but but Scott keep me honest here we'll try to make sure we're talking about in a way that you can kind of just, just listen along on the podcast and then look at the deck later if that's the way you prefer to do it. Scot: [4:03] Yeah this is a good time if you like receiving awesome decks for your subscription here which is essentially free this is a good time to hit the five star review we always appreciate that and yeah because we because this is a audio medium we are going to paint pictures with our words and you will see the slides form before your very eyes almost like augmented virtual reality we're going to take you to the metaverse on this thing. Jason: [4:31] Exactly it's a meta verse deep dive into a retail in 2021 and let's jump right into it so. [4:42] Super quick recap last week the US Department of Commerce publishes published their December Advanced Data so that gives us the last month of data we need to see the whole year so it's super exciting for all of us get data Geeks because we now have a complete set of data the one thing to remember is. It's an advanced look and so it doesn't have the granularity of categories that we would like and one of the categories it doesn't have is e-commerce which is highly unfortunate so, the the Deep dive for the whole year with e-commerce broken out will actually be available in mid-February and that's also when they published their quarterly. They're q4u Commerce data which is a separate report so so we have most of the interesting facts there maybe a couple things that filter in last, next month but the top line if we add up all retail sales for 2021 we sold just over six point six trillion dollars of stuff last year which is eighteen percent growth over 20. [5:53] And it's 22 percent growth over 2019 and so, if you do have the deck and you were looking at slide for I show you the last 30 years of growth and the thing that will stand out at you is that this year's growth. Is is almost double the average growth we've had in any of the last 30 years so unprecedentedly good year. Scot: [6:20] This is all retail or not talking e-commerce has. Jason: [6:22] Yeah this is this is pure retail will we will double click into e-commerce a little bit later and you know reminder there's a lot of controversy about what the definition of retail is and so you'll see millions of different numbers out there and it's because. 11 data set has automobiles in it and one has doesn't one has gas in it and one doesn't you know they're all these different things I'm using. The unadulterated numbers from the US Department of Commerce so it does include automobiles it does include gas it does not include restaurants it's what we call, in a ICS code 44,000. Scot: [7:03] Cool good old code it 44,000. Jason: [7:07] If anyone wants to catch me offline and ask for like a different spin I'm happy to talk about how the numbers change when you change your definition but I think that's too complicated for for the podcast but so before I go any further. Like is that does that surprise you at all it has is that has that been your perception that these are Monster year that 2020 and 2021 more Monster years for retail because I feel like that's not necessarily the narrative we've been getting in some of the Commerce media. Scot: [7:37] Yeah no it feels that is a surprise it makes sense and I'm looking at the slide but it makes sense that we were effectively spring-loaded right because you had the shutdown people really, you know couldn't or didn't buy things from March 20 through and so there's put up demand but what's interesting is you really don't see, unlike the Great Recession about it no nine you don't see a retraction before this the splurge and this is way way bigger than that period of time so it is it is surprising. Jason: [8:08] Yeah so so, in aggregate retail did awesome and then on slide 5 I give you this fun way of looking at the data that you and I helped help kind of evolved together but the idea is that we give you a separate line chart for 2019 2020 and 2021 and so you can kind of see. You know how the year stack up against each other and you know. [8:35] 20:19 was the unaffected by the pandemic than 20/20 happen and of course there was this huge dip in April when the pandemic first got real for everyone because the NBA cancelled games and it recovered super quick and then you know the rest of 20/20 was actually above 2019 so retail grew. From 2019 and 2020 even though we were like right in the thick of the pandemic and then in 2021 retail really shot up and the. The hypothesis here is there are two things that really caused this number one there was a bunch of. Economic stimulus that was poured into the economy right like there's a lot of extra money available and consumers were in, like generally really good Financial shape so there was a lot of potential to spend and then a lot of the things that might have gotten some of that money experiences like travel in restaurants and vacations, we're not available in the most consumers so instead of paying money for a gym you bought a Peloton instead of going to a restaurant you bought groceries and instead of going on vacation you you got new patio furniture right and so you know the combination of, more money and less things to spend and on ended up being super favorable to retail overall. Scot: [9:59] Yeah that makes it so that it's really a factor of the stimulus is what you're saying. Jason: [10:06] Yeah and we'll talk about the downside of that if they end of this podcast but so that's the industry average and I would remind everyone to be cautious. In thinking about averages because, very few retailers experience the average right like in general there were big winners and losers based on categories and I'm for the purposes of the podcast we're not going to talk about category growth or foot traffic. From 2022 2021 because 2020 was such a weird year because of the pandemic I actually am going to jump ahead in the deck to slide 9 which is where we start talking about, comparing. Last year to 2019 so like what the cumulative changes were over the from before the pandemic to you know at the end of the second year of the pandemic so. Over that two-year growth we grew 22% as I mentioned earlier and so I actually. [11:09] Put together look at what the average to your growth was every year for the last 30 years and in general the average two-year growth is around 10 to 12 percent so 22% is, unprecedentedly High. Two year growth and remember like you know there was in 2008 there was this recession and there was negative growth so you'd think the the year-over-year from that recession would be super high but but this. 2020 and 2021 year is basically the the best years of retail in our lifetime. And so then I go to slide 10 where I show you how fast each category grew and remember if the industry grew 22%. You really want to be growing faster than that 22% so the categories that one the grew faster than 22% we're your new favorite category automobiles. So they grew at 24 percent which was mildly surprising to me because you, you know early on you would assume Car Sales slowed down significantly and then of course there have been all these chip shortages that's made it slightly hard to buy cars, and yet cars were still one of the bright spots does that surprise you at all or were you totally dialed into that. Scot: [12:30] Yeah the counter is the used markets on fire and they're marking the cars up so there's kind of like an inflation of car prices in there that I think. One of the reasons so if there is a car dealers are taking these pretty exorbitant markups on those, which is kind of short-sighted but that's what they're doing and yeah so so it doesn't surprise me too much when you know what surprises me is where did it all go so we had this like tsunami you know anything about retail it's you know it hasn't been over. You know like what, 10% for a long time and then you've got in the two year ago comparison you get up to maybe like 15% so it's like a surge year where did it show up like I can't think. You know amongst the public companies the Walmarts the targets and that kind of stuff I don't really see it I don't see them just like, blowing up expectations and saying oh my God so much money flooded into our coffers. I kind of wonder where it went or maybe it's going to show up and you know in when you when you chart it out it looks like a lot of it came at the end of 21 so maybe we haven't seen it come out and the public markets but it's going to be you know I kind of wonder where it went. Jason: [13:42] Yeah so I would argue that we are seeing it like in the big companies in the Amazon Walmart Target Kroger and certainly Home Depot and dicks we are seeing it. And so I think the car one is a harder one to see because the car you know the actual car dealers are so fragmented because they're all franchisees. Scot: [14:05] Carvanha has seen it carvanha. Jason: [14:06] The Used Car Guys for sure saw it so let's come back to that in one second let's talk about the other two categories that were above the industry average building materials and garden supplies right so that's Home Depot and Lowe's and you know they're there to your growth Stacks were like significantly up from previous years and again. Part of the reason they would be up as people spend a lot more money on their homes when they were traveling last and then and so that category group thirty percent over two years and then Sporting Goods grew 38 percent over two years so that's you know dicks and sporting goods and and those folks and they were seeing like like I want to say the two year growth stack on dicks would be is like 94% or something so. Scot: [14:56] Yeah. Jason: [14:59] So and then the categories that still like had, by historic standards great growth but did not grow as fast as the industry average grocery stores so only grew 16 percent I have to say that surprised me a little bit because I would have. Expected you know with the hit that restaurants took that the grocery would have outperformed the industry average but you know it doesn't seem like it. It did and then, furnishings and furniture and Home Furnishings grew at 21 percent so about the industry average and again because of all the money people spend on their homes I kind of would have expected that to be higher so those two things. Surprise me a little bit. And then the the categories that were you know more significantly hurt by the pandemic like gas and clothing, you know clothing was still up 13% gas was up 15%. And that's what hurt looks like right like so you know up 13 percent against the industry average of 22 percent like that's. You know kind of the the low end and you know I think if you talk to apparel people during the pandemic they would have said like oh we're you know we're experiencing Armageddon if you compare this 13% growth too you know any of the last five or six years for apparel this would have been a great year. [16:23] And then the most inexplicable to me of all and I think it just has to do with the mix in this category is Electronics and appliances are only up 6%. And I I'm totally open if you have a hypothesis cop but like I think everybody bought a lot of extra Home Tech. So especially the beginning of the pandemic everyone's buying extra computers for their kids for homeschooling and everybody's updating their work from home stuff, and you know over the two-year course of the pandemic you know everybody remodeled their kitchen about new appliances so I'm a little befuddled. Why that you know that category is literally the bottom of the Barrel in this the US Department of Commerce data and it's only six percent of growth. Scot: [17:13] Yeah let me look at the year. Jason: [17:18] I have a so while you're looking I'll just I'll tell you I my. My unfortunate hypothesis so there's an enormous flaw in the US Department of Commerce data and that flaw is that they call e-commerce or non stores. A category. So you're either a Peril sale if you sell the clothes through a store or your Anon store sale if you sell the clothes online, and so if you sell a TV out of Best Buy you're in electronic sale but if you sell the TV online for curbside pickup. You're a. Non-store sale and so I didn't mention this earlier but the category that actually grew the most by far during the pandemic is non store sales which are 38% and we, have any good way to know how that breaks down by category so my hypothesis is the electronics category actually probably did better but the it over index to sales going online and therefore it gets office gated in this US Department of Commerce data. Scot: [18:32] Yeah and then accentuating this is the supply chain problems hashtag Supply pain where you know a lot of that stuff you would go into the store for especially big appliances where you kind of want to see it and touch it and feel it before you order it, I know on the order of 10 people that cannot get washers and dryers. So you know that that was all like this big appliances are in and they've been waiting since you know, Q3 last year to get these things it's insane so that could have you know so you have this kind of double edged double whammy of a lot of stuff moving online or non-store from the store in the store or struggling because they can't get inventory for the shelves and you know every electronics item has a chip. Jason: [19:20] Yeah so I do like that I will say it from the data it looks like more of the group The Slowdown was in, 20/20 than 2021 which like kind of argues it like. Scot: [19:35] Yeah attribution. Jason: [19:37] Yeah so but I don't I don't know and so then so that so far everything we've talked about is US Department of Commerce data so I'm also super interested in how many people walked into a store so I asked our friends at Placer AI which is a, a company that has access to a huge panel of consumers that have software on their phones and it tracks where they go anonymously and they use that data to forecast. Retail foot traffic across the country and so I put together a data set so on Slide. [20:21] 11 of the deck you can see how the 20 21 foot traffic every month compared to 2019 and so for the first half of 2021, um foot traffic in retail was still down between 10% and 0%, versus 2019 so fewer people are going to stores in 2021 then we're going to stores before the pandemic. And then by July we had our first kind of Positive Growth since the pandemic so July and August we're kind of up for and six percent over 20 19 respectively, then we had another slight dip in September and then we had a pretty prominent dip in December of 2021 which was probably the Omicron variant kicking in. [21:12] But so in aggregate. There are still fewer people walking in a brick-and-mortar stores in the United States of America in 2021 than walked in a brick-and-mortar stores in 2019. Scot: [21:24] There are some it almost like it seems to be correlated an inverse correlation with case count right so in the summer cases were kind of low everything was feeling pretty good and then we had kind of the surge the Omicron surged kind of come back and here at the very tail end of 21 we saw a really plummet. Jason: [21:42] Yeah no for sure and there are lots of people that I have been correlating these statistics to case counts or hospitalizations or. Or mortality or any of those things in there are strong correlations so you're certainly right. [21:56] Um so then I I said all right well let's double-click on some of the categories that might be interesting and one category that I mainly double clicked on for you was Automotive so for folks that don't know Automotive is the biggest. Category of retail spending and which kind of makes sense because it's the. The highest ticket item so 1.5 trillion dollars in in car sales in 2021 which is 23 percent of all retail spending so we said 6.6%. Six point six trillion in retail 1.5 trillion of it was cars and that's up as we said earlier 24% from 2019 and then I give you kind of the, the shape of that Demand right and and you know so again, the best month in the history of car sales was April of 2021 and then it's been, tapering off a little bit since then but still up significantly from 2020 and 2021 is up nominally from from 2019 so a very vibrant year even though per your point you know it's actually hard to get vehicles right so a lot of this this. Increase in sales is an increase in price points and inflation versus unit sold but I think it is a little bit of both. Scot: [23:20] Yeah the other changes there's a pull forward because what dealers have started doing is pre sailing Vehicles so it's almost like an auction where they'll say Jason I know you want this IMA Mustang and we got three coming in and August but if you want one of those I'm going to need you to, pay me to there now I don't know how that correlates to these numbers but we're seeing this big pull forward of the consumer dollars into the auto category because of this pre-sale thing where, historically it was you would go test-drive negotiate and then buy the car and it was sitting on the lot the inventory model is kind of flipped right now which is interesting. Jason: [23:59] Yeah yeah and I know not not related to sales velocity necessarily but another interesting thing is. The amount of test drives per sale is way down like it used to be like three test drives per sale and now it might be less than one test drive per sale. Scot: [24:17] Yeah it's kind of it's fun being in the auto category because some in some ways I feel like I've seen the movie before right so for example remember when Zappos came out and they disrupted the shoe category by saying free 365 returns, well then everyone would just buy would say well sometimes I'm an 11 sometimes in 11 half and 10 half I'll just order all three in return to. So then everyone had to adapt that new model because consumers flocked to it and the car industry carvanha has had a seven day return for a vehicle and that's how they got around the test drive and everyone laughed at him and was like why would you do that that's ridiculous and then the pandemic it and everyone had to kind of adopt that model so that's that's gotten rid of the test drive most dealers now have had to adapt to that that more customer friendly model and effectively have like a seven day return window. Jason: [25:06] Yeah and you know you've heard me say this before but I've been following the ottoman of category relatively closely and the grocery category for two big reasons they're they're the two biggest pieces of consumer spending but also before the Pandemic those were the two categories that were released digitally disrupted like a small percentage of cars were sold online a small percentage of groceries sold online and so those two categories were the most disrupted by digital they they got the most digital fastest as a result of the pandemic so I've been super interesting because per your point a lot of the learnings that we've had over the last 20 years in the apparel industry in the consumer electronics Industry and the home industry like are now you know playing out in an accelerated basis in the automobile industry and in the grocery industry. Scot: [25:57] Yeah 11 cool example and I know you know these guys so yeah I tell folks a lot about how Walmart budget and it was kind of like this this analog kind of old-school company building bringing deep digital DNA and we would see a lot of that not emotive category and sure enough Discount Tire which is a brick-and-mortar tire shop family-owned what are they like 100 years old or something like that and they just bought Tire Rec which is kind of the you know the online incumbent and they're merging those two companies together so it's funny because everyone thinks I'm kind of a Nostradamus of this stuff because but it's really just, the exact same thing we saw happen in e-commerce with other categories as happening in the automotive category. Jason: [26:42] Groundhog Day yeah sometimes when I'm impatient I really have to avoid telling clients so I know you need to figure this out for yourself but I know how it is. Scot: [26:52] Yeah. Jason: [26:54] But so I mentioned the grocery category that's the next category that I want to talk about briefly so now we're on slide 14 of the deck, and groceries the second biggest category of consumer spending it's fourteen percent of all retail spending so it's, 901 billion dollars in 2021 and and I mentioned grocery was up pretty significantly up 16 percent but but that you know that is a little less than the industry average and I give folks that that same kind of three-year year-over-year graph if they want to see it but then a bonus data breakdown I always like to do for the grocery industry is on slide 16 and this is a, a line graph with two data points grocery store sales and restaurant sales, and what's interesting about that is for like a pretty significant period of time about a 10-year period. Sales were split almost 50/50 between restaurants and grocery stores so all the the American calories were kind of divided 50/50 between McDonald's on Applebee's and Walmart and Kroger and in the pandemic exactly what you would expect to happen grocery sales shot up and restaurant sales you know took a nosedive. [28:13] Over the course of the pandemic they've moved back closer and kind of come summer of 2021 they actually came back to where they used to be so they were kind of level again and we were like I wonder if that, if if that Gap is over but then Omicron appears to have open that Gap backup so at the moment there is still about a ten billion dollar a month discrepancy between spending on on groceries and spending on restaurant so potentially bad news for the restaurants. Scot: [28:48] Yeah well you wouldn't know it at my restaurants or so they're they're they're super busy. Jason: [28:53] Nice. Scot: [28:55] Could be you know we you know it's interesting traveling around the country a little bit now it's like living in 50 different. Countries the way they're covid policies are so you go to you go to Florida and Texas and everything's just open and normal and then you go to the north east or the west coast and things are very much shut down, and here in our kind of a kind of in the middle but we're still struggling our restaurants part of it could be that they're just closing all the time so we have several restaurants that just can't keep their doors open due to this kind of constant struggle between in team members employees and supply chain so you'll you'll go and they'll have to close early because they didn't have anyone to work that shift and then you'll go and they'll be like we're out of you know it'll be a salad place in they'll be out of lettuce you're like yeah guess may not have needed open but they'll be in there with nothing to do so so it's really. The economy is having a really hard time it's really kind of sputtering right now across those things which which could fall into restaurants and bars you know this, looking into this year into 22. There's a lot of grocery stores are have bare shelves and I don't I was going to actually because you're the grocery guy I don't know what's broken in the supply chain there because obviously we don't rely on China for you know, a lot of that stuff so it's not the that specific thing but that seems to have really become discombobulated as well. Jason: [30:21] Yeah so yeah for sure there it turns out like there is for a, a fair segment of the grocery products there is an international component right like so there are weird ingredients that we do depend a lot on on Imports for right so you know even if the Mondelez cookies are made in the US the sugar for the Mondelez cookies is not and so it it is possible for the shipping to to have an impact on Oreo availability it just it tends to be delayed because it's it's more the ingredient than the finished goods that that is getting in. Scot: [31:01] Catching you know maybe the package. Jason: [31:03] The cpg guys even more so right so a lot of the chemicals that get used in cpg products and a lot of the the, the packaging like blue ink for a while was one of the the the constraining factors and so you know, Brands did have a hard decision to make do we like change the color of our packaging so we keep stay on the shelf or do we you know try to stay true to our brand and wait for morning. Which are not decisions you imagine ever have having to make. Um and then you know grocery is have its groceries a very fragile ecosystem margins are really thin and so. More so than other categories of retail the wage inflation has a Major Impact in it it actually. There's a low-wage workers all the way along that supply chain and so you know a big thing that takes out. Domestic food is you know there's a round of covid at the meat processing plant. And that that can you know be a big Regional hit I walked into a breakfast place last weekend and they were out of eggs, and I'm like wait a minute I haven't heard about an egg shortage or like are we having an egg shortage and the guys I know are our manager just screwed up the hole. [32:27] Yeah but I was I was with you I guess yeah what it's questionable why you open if you're a breakfast, restaurant and you don't have any eggs or you should at least put a vegan sign up or something I don't know. So I always like to talk about a parallel because for a long time apparel is like one of the crown jewels of the retail category and people are super excited about that and you know there was an ERA when those were the best jobs so up, Peril is much more it's about five percent of retail sales it was 303 billion despite the fact that we all have been living in sweatpants for the last two years apparel sales were still up 13%, that definitely was a mostly due to a 2022 2021 recovery 2020 was a really bad year for apparel and it started to come back so apparel is one of the few categories on Slide, 18 where I give you the three-year graph of the the category it's one of the few categories where the 2020 sales were consistently below the 2019 sales and then 2021 they, they came back up to the top and you know one interesting fact about a parallel that I give you a data breakdown on 19 is. [33:41] Apparel has just been getting cheaper over time that in the 1990s apparel was seven percent of retail spending and now it's about four and a half percent of retail spending and that's a largely because good clothes are just less expensive and and you know the same closet that an American would have had in 1990 Hassel asks in 2022 and so if you're growing in the apparel industry you're you're growing in a shrinking Market which is you know always a challenge to do. Scot: [34:15] The entire Farm it's kind of shocking to see April 2020 you know touching effectively zero sales and monthly apparel that's crazy that I feel for those guys that must have been a scary. Jason: [34:28] For most of these graphs I change edit the scale to make the graph as high resolution as possible so the bottom of the graph isn't zero but in a Peril it absolutely is. Scot: [34:38] Yeah might as well be easier yeah. Jason: [34:40] Um and so, so that's enough of the categories I know a lot of listeners on our show were particularly interested in e-commerce I wanted to talk about e-commerce for a minute I mentioned the official. Breakdown of e-commerce you know we won't get for December until the middle of February we do get a, a kind of proxy for e-commerce which is called non store sales it is a it is a bigger bucket and it has more other stuff in it than just e-commerce but if I look at, the 11 months of internet data and then the the one month of non store sales data. It's pretty clear that we're going to come in around a trillion dollars in e-commerce sales so if the official numbers work out the way I think this will be the first year the e-commerce in the u.s. is over a trillion dollars. Um that would represent 16 percent of retail sales so 16 doesn't sound like a huge number, but again it just depends on what your denominator is that 16 percent is you know overall of retail which includes, cars which are getting more digital but still aren't very digital it includes gas which is you know only digital in a couple neighborhoods in San Francisco, um and so I you know you start pulling out some of those traditionally non-digital categories and you know. [36:02] That one trillion dollars represents about you know between 20 and 25% of all the categories that that you know people are willing to buy online and so it's become a very meaningful mix and obviously. It was the fastest growing because of the pandemic but inside 21 I show you the the. The three-year breakdown and the thing that's unique about e-commerce versus some of these other categories. [36:32] E-commerce head its monster growth in 2020. So the two-year growth numbers are still amazing but the one year growth numbers from 2021 to 2020 are not so great because we're comping against. [36:46] A monster year and it's been interesting because like Shopify stock is down because their comps aren't very good right but really there you know. They're comping against these monster numbers. You know lots of retailers are calling me right now and they're in a panic because they're not they didn't hit their goals and their their you know numbers are wrong and I'm like. I mean they're you know their numbers are soft and I'm like well but let's look at what really happened like you had unprecedented growth over the last two years and you're you know you potentially are. Thinking about it in the right way so on slide 22 I give you my, entire story of the world going digital in one slide and it's a little hard, hard to follow but basically what I show you is I show you the brick-and-mortar sales every year or every quarter and then on top of that I show you the e-commerce sales so you can see the e-commerce growing you can see kind of, as a portion of retail what it is and then I show you the rate of growth for for retail and e-commerce and until the pandemic we had a pretty consistent story, e-commerce was growing at like between 15 and 20% a year and brick-and-mortar was growing at three to four percent a year and that was pretty reliable, so then the pandemic happens and brick-and-mortar shrinks for a quarter and e-commerce explodes by you know over 40%. [38:10] And since that time they've been coming back and so for the first time in my life time in Q2 of 2021. Brick-and-mortar actually grew faster than e-commerce for the first time ever. Largely because of the you know they're comping against these these you know huge huge March of 2020 and you know I will see you when the data comes out next month but I have a feeling we're regressing pretty quickly now back to the kind of the the pre-pandemic rates of growth like we absorbed all this big e-commerce growth for two years and I can you know I kind of think we're gonna see e-commerce level back down at that 10 to 15 percent growth every quarter and and Retail drop back down to the 45 percent growth of quarter. Scot: [39:06] Well I think it's you know I think the silver lining for me is and I'm the e-commerce guy here is we had the Surge and then we actually did kind of even better than the surgeon you know you could have painted a story that said this will kind of flip – for your to as it kind of the subsides and then then we get back to normal so so the rising tide kind of stuck and created a new high and then we have continued to grow from there how does I know this this agitates you which is why I bring it up but you know this does not support you know that Theory out there that we pulled forward like five years of e-commerce. Jason: [39:43] Yeah no we we didn't and most of the evidence now is that. We're we're not even way ahead of where we would have been that like like we we got the sales early but that. The future growth is. Slightly slower as a result so that like five or 10 years from now you know will see this this blip on the graph but we'll kind of you know end up at the same same place we would have end up without the the pandemic is most people's projections that's less to true in some of these, digitally immature categories like grocery or automobiles where we really did probably pull in you know kind of accelerate two to three years into the future. And so I did on slide 23 I give you the our estimates of the 2021 e-commerce sales for a bunch of retailers because I'm often surprised people. Don't necessarily have. [40:52] The the best perception about how the relative size of all these retailers so these estimates come from emarketer there there gmv us estimate for Amazon is on the high side of all the estimates I. I look at but they have 20 21 gmv for Amazon and about three hundred seventy six billion. Walmart's the second largest e-commerce site by a lot at 60 billion so quite a bit smarter than Amazon. Until recently eBay would have been the second biggest site and Walmart's approaching twice as big as eBay now so they have shot past eBay. To get to 60 billion eBay's at 38 billion apple is at 37 billion and then like people people forget how big a player apple is alone I saw a funny stat that like. If the air buds alone the air pods alone were a company like it would be the 10th largest company. Scot: [41:50] Yeah that's crazy. Jason: [41:52] And so then you get like a Home Depot is almost 20 billion targets 8 almost 19 billion Best Buys on you know over 16 billion, Costco who's the bane of my existence Costco like pays the least attention to digital they you know always talk about how unimportant digital is and how they don't like it, and I tell everyone what a horrible mistake that is and then Costco continues to Excel and despite not trying they sell 14 billion dollars a year on line. [42:24] So then you can see the rest of the the top 15 on that slide on slide 23 if you're interested but it's interesting to understand the. The relative size of some of these companies. And so then you know one of the things that people always ask about is what did holiday look like particularly so the next section of this deck is, a double click on on holiday 2021 and so. I'm defining holiday as November and December sales that somewhat controversial because there's a lot of different ways to think about it. If we just look at November and December sales this holiday period was the the largest retail holiday ever. And it drew about 16.1%, which is vastly faster growth than any other holiday like the next biggest holiday was 10% so so kind of the same story for the whole year we get in Holiday it was a monster holiday, um You know again that depends a little bit on how you Define retail in RF likes to pull gas out of their number so they're there they would say holiday was 14 percent growth which is still. A monster number. So then I went back to our friends and place Rai and said hey what is foot traffic look like every week of holiday. [43:49] And that to me was kind of interesting so. You know December foot traffic was down overall I'll remind you because of Omicron but if we kind of look at the the weekly data for Holiday foot traffic was actually up versus 2019. Leading into the Thanksgiving weekend and so then the weekend that was way down was Thanksgiving weekend way less people went to stores on Black Friday, then went to stores in 2019 about six percent less, and then you know the rest of holiday was slightly above so if it weren't for the decline in Black Friday traffic I would say foot traffic and Retail was up about 2%, over 2019 but that Black Friday dip pulled the whole thing down to where we still aren't back to 2019 levels does that kind of make sense. [44:44] And so one of the things that is a common narrative about holiday and I've even contributed to this narrative is, man retailers are really trying to pull sales in and holiday starting earlier in October and you know holidays flattening it's less about these big, spikes on on Black Friday and Cyber Monday and so now that we have real data I'm like oh well let's see how, how that really held up in the first thing to know is. The early sales in October was kind of a myth like there was not an unusual spike in sales in October and so you know. [45:20] There was not a huge success in pulling sales into October and so then what I did is I went to similarweb which similar web has a data set of e-commerce site visits and what I like about that is, we can get much more accurate granular data than we can on like foot traffic or you know foot traffic or lucky to get weekly data but for e-commerce we can get daily number of sessions or unique visitors or things like that so I said hey let's take the hundred biggest e-commerce sites in the US and let's see total visits and let's compare, 2019 with 2021 and the first thing to remember is. You know Thanksgiving doesn't fall on the same day every year and so what I did is I normalize those I said let's not do November 1st through December 31st, let's do the 25 days before Black Friday in the 32 days after Black Friday so that we could kind of. Match up the the flow and what you'll see is there was a lot more traffic on e-commerce sites every day of holiday in 2021 than 20 then 20, except for two days Black Friday and Cyber Monday and Black Friday and Cyber Monday 2021 with still above. 2019 but they were nearly the same and so. The I guess what this would say is this partially Bears out our hypothesis. [46:48] E-commerce visits did level out like the traffic did get spread out to the whole 60 days more than ever before but those those two tent poles are still tent poles and they still are by far the busiest days, so I you know I definitely you know think that the narrative that like those Temple days don't matter anymore is kind of a misnomer and they you know they got nearly twice as many visits as a normal holiday day. Did that surprise you at all. Scot: [47:20] The surgeon the chart 21 is interesting at the end I think that's my procrastinator people. Jason: [47:28] So so yeah so. Scot: [47:29] It's where I shop. Jason: [47:29] It's God's talking about is the gap between 2019 and 2020 is pretty consistent but then opens up the most ever has, um the very end of the holiday and my hypothesis for that is again this is e-commerce it's Omicron again so I. There was pent-up demand to go to stores people were going the store store traffic was going up and then store traffic fell off a cliff the last half of December as people started getting nervous and so I think that you know drove more people to e-commerce again as my least is my hypothesis. [48:03] And so so that I think is a super interesting data set I definitely am grateful to have access to the similarweb stuff and wow I was diving into their data Isles one of the cool things there's we can see traffic on individual website so I said, well let's see who the winners and losers are in terms of traffic and the story here is. The the traffic is disproportionately going to the the big high-performing sites so you know not surprisingly, Amazon gets the most traffic but they also got the biggest chunk of traffic growth so sometimes you'd say hey the biggest most established players should be the hardest to grow. Amazon Druids traffic faster than any other top 10 retailer which is pretty impressive, and then the next biggest grower was Walmart so this is kind of the story of the rich getting richer and you know traffic and sales consolidating on the, those those very big a sites which is kind of the story you see on slide 29 if you're following along on the deck. Scot: [49:12] The thing that fascinates me about this data is you have like Etsy with the fourth most traffic but then they're like one of the smaller e-commerce sites right so does that, yeah it does that mean no well that's apples and oranges I guess that's all of retail in the previous comparison. Jason: [49:30] No that was at Seas. These e-commerce sales are about little less than 8 billion in the u.s. versus like Walmart at 60 billion but then Ed C does have like like nearly as much traffic as Walmart right like. I want to say they did 600 million, visits over the holiday period versus Walmart did like 1.1 billion so, so you know despite Walmart being 10 times as large they only had twice as much traffic and I think part of the reason for that is the the. Kind of thin long tail nature of Ed c means that their overall conversion rate and the amount of you know pay visits you have to do to find what you want is. Is higher than then it is on Walmart where you're more likely to go to Walmart with with high purchase intent for a particular item and these days it's pretty easy to find that item and get out. Um and that kind of is born out Ebay is still the second large just traffic site even though they're they're shrinking and again eBay's almost half the size of Walmart but eBay is traffic is still higher than Walmart's. Scot: [50:52] Yeah it's a huge it's kind of sad in one way but it's a huge opportunity Bay could get their act together and convert that traffic the way Walmart is they. Jason: [51:00] Yeah if I could redo our. Our predictions episode so you know I talked about in a number of times on this that one of the big trends is retail media networks and you know people selling ads what this data set uncovers more than anything else is the untapped opportunities Ed C needs to get a retail media Network up as soon as possible because I, as far as I know they don't have one. So they should be monetizing that traffic because that that that that's a valuable asset they're not they're not leaning into yet for all our Etsy listeners so then I will just say in this is you know the Chrome Legend in me, during holiday we talk a lot about these estimates from companies right so Adobe you know you know we have on the show and they give us their real time estimates based on on all the customers they see we have sales force on the show every year and they give us real time estimates and then you know when we talk about that I don't think we've had on the show is Mastercard has this product called spending pulse which is, kind of an anonymous aggregated view of all the people that buy stuff with MasterCard and. [52:08] Just just for interest Adobe MasterCard in Salesforce all agree, um that the e-commerce grew about 10% in in Holiday 9 or 10% and holiday of 2021 and that passes the smell test again we don't have the e-commerce data for for December yet so I don't really know but that. That feels like the right order magnitude so I think you know these guys all credibly predicted, the shape of holiday e-commerce but the only one of these guys that predicts brick and mortar is Mastercard right Adobe and Salesforce are pure online retailers and every year I always get weird data from MasterCard and I say this because the whole. The whole world and especially the media like publish this MasterCard data far and wide and and treat it as fax MasterCard like on December 26th said that, retail sales were going to be up 8.5% and that meant they were going to be up 10.7% versus 2019. And so we now know from the US Department of Commerce data that that they were off by 50%. So just call out to my friends at MasterCard that I'd be curious to understand what's going on there from my. Scot: [53:31] Your category thing. Jason: [53:32] Yeah from my seat Well they argue it's not but from my seat there consistently off on the brick-and-mortar number so I'm I'm curious and so then. [53:42] Every time I have this conversation with a colleague or a client the especially someone that maybe doesn't live and breathe e-commerce every day is soon as you start talking about this monster growth number, what everyone asks is yeah Jason but how much of that is inflation right because the thing we hear about in the media the most. Is is inflation inflation inflation and so you know it stands to reason if. [54:09] You know if something grew by 10% and people are paying more you know ten percent more for everything then that explains it and this you know this is an inflation story not a growth in consumer demand story and so I like to put in. Just a little kind of inflation picture at the end. The so I give I give folks a graph of the government, inflation numbers for for for these three years and and what you can see is that like for most of the pandemic inflation. Kind of stayed in the normal range and then we started this, this huge climb not until January of 2021 so if you remember like all a lot of this growth were talking about was 2020 growth, inflation doesn't explain that growth at all there is significant inflation in all of 2021 and it's historically High it's you know depending on how you want to count it could be a 40-year high and so it finished in December. [55:14] At seven percent and so if you figure normal inflation, is a about 11 and a half percent inflation was already high before the pandemic at 2.3 percent. You know if you say alright it should have been at 2.3 percent and it's at seven percent then you could. Say that the kind of back half of 2021 sales that you know. That three or four percent of it can be explained by inflation but definitely not this 22% were talking about. [55:48] And I don't know if you been thinking about her talking about the inflation a lot it's kind of. It's it's kind of funny because I always like to remind people the long-term picture we're all paying way less for goods than we ever did before so I kind of pull this. This 20-year inflation number to remind people that like we're paying fifty percent for a pair of what we paid 20 years ago we're paying, 30% last for personal products and beauty products were paying 17 percent last four cars we're paying 12% less for food all the tangible stuff we buy is getting cheaper because we're getting better at making, and where the American family's budget is going is to Services right so you know the American families having to pay way less for hard goods and food and way more for housing education and Healthcare and that's the big macro picture, but then we've had like the we talked about a lot of the growth in retail coming from all this economic stimulus, the the downside of that economic stimulus is. [56:47] It actually is one of the contributing factors to inflation right like the people have more money to spend, um they buy more the supply chain wasn't prepared for that buy more and so we have, supply chain disruption and so now you have Supply going down and demand going up and what do people do in a rational Market when they they have high demand and low Supply they they charge more, um and so then you know people say hey everything I buy is more expensive I need to get paid more and we have this unprecedented leverage that workers have right now because the labor shortage so they're all negotiating better prices and guess what that means they can afford. Pay more again and and manufacturers are you know having more costs of labor for making stuff so they're charging more and what's been super interesting and all this is, you know it's kind of an excuse for manufacturers to charge you more like most of these manufacturers that are raising their prices are also setting record profits so it's not like. True that like. All of this information is manufacturers passing costs on to Consumers it's a little bit of the the you know opportunity of the moment of you. Scot: [58:01] Yep it's complicated to the inflation a lot of its gas and then to your point a lot of it's stuff that doesn't have this inherent deflationary element to it like healthcare and we're paying more and more for healthcare education anything that has a service component is shooting way up. But even even in the short term though like yeah everything at the grocery store is insane right now it's crazy. Jason: [58:27] Yeah and food and gas are historically more volatile so inflation goes up and down more like side note you have to take all these numbers with a grain of salt because the way they measure it is, they measure the cost of a basket of goods that an average American bought but they built the basket of goods in like 1945. And so it's not the right past it's for today there's no iPhone in that basket. Scot: [58:50] Yeah. Jason: [58:52] So yeah so it's interesting fun it's fun for me because I'll actually be on Good Morning America this weekend talking about inflation. Yeah always fun but yeah I. I'm with you if you take what's called core inflation where you pull gas and food out inflation's like 4.5% so for most of these retail categories, it's part of the story but it definitely would be a mistake to Discount all this growth and say oh it's just. And that's my scoop that's your 36 slide deck that you're all welcome to grab and use my thanks to all the the data providers that contributed to all of it so I have a, a bibliography at the end so if you're interested in starting to track any of this data on your own I tried to make that easy for you. Scot: [59:41] Yeah when we do when we post the show will also try to get on our socials because I've had some people say they can't find the show notes and so we'll make sure that we disseminate this wide and so everyone has it. Jason: [59:55] Well Scott not surprisingly we were able to perfectly fill up an hour with this one topic. So hopefully you found value in this is Scott mentioned the top of the show if you did we sure would appreciate that five-star review, but thanks everyone for kind of following Along on this like pretty dry difficult data dump episode I hope I hope it was useful please, give us feedback if you liked it or if it was not the right format. Scot: [1:00:23] People of data in retailgeek delivers and until next time. Jason: [1:00:28] Happy commercing!
Joe and Tom are joined by Sameer Ahuja, President of GameChanger, a technology company that builds simple and powerful products for youth sports teams and their communities owned by Dick's Sporting Goods. The company's premier service is an app that includes scoring and streaming capabilities for youth sports leagues. In this episode, Sameer discusses his start at JP Morgan Chase, creating the Sports Museum of America during the 2008 economic crisis, the founding of GameChanger, and accessibility and trends within youth sports. Sameer also highlights the importance of taking time to learn new things and getting input from your peers, as well as the rise of data collection within youth sports. Enjoy this exciting episode on The CUSP show. The CUSP Show is a production by the faculty of Sports Management at Columbia University. You can get in touch with the program on Twitter @CU_SPS_Sports. The CUSP Show is hosted by Joe Favorito (@Joefav) and Tom Richardson (@ConvergenceTR). The show is produced by Tom Cerny (@Tom_Cerny19), Yash Agarwal '22 (@yashagarwal655), Sam Marks '22, and Connor O'Neill '22, with Jillian Quinn '22 (@JillianMQuinn) and Dominique Smith '22 managing social media efforts.
The Bee Man and Hellman harbor a fugitive named Amper who's on the run from some crimes she did at a Modell's Sporting Goods in New Jersey. Join the Patreon, buy merch watch videos: www.worldrecordpodcast.com Come see us LIVE in Austin TX 2/20 at the Vulcan Gas Co https://www.vulcanatx.com Follow Edy Modica on instagram @doodiehole See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Passing of Dan Reeves, Falcons playoff run passes, NFL draft position weakens, Falcons lose RB coach, Antonio Brown's latest nut up & why it's not ending well, Dick's Sporting Goods has zero self-awareness, Joe Tessitore v Dan Wolken is a win-win for the rest of us, Dennis Dodd another CFB sports writer who hates his job & himself, Clemson loses another coach, petedavis.buzzsprout.com, Pete's Tweets, This Day in Sports History. Come for why Dan Reeves belongs in the Hall of Fame, stay for Kirk Herbstreit & Desmond Howard railing about those kids today & prank-calling the Cotton Bowl press box
As 2021 comes to a close, we put together a not-so-quick compilation of our favorite moments from all of the great conversations we had over the past year. So sit back with a beverage of choice, enjoy, and PLEASE DO share our podcast with a friend (and leave us a review) — it makes a big difference! Got a guest idea or want to ask a question? Email us! email@example.com We can't wait for you to hear what's next in the new year! Heard someone you liked? Be sure to go back and check out their full episode. Featuring the voices of our amazing guests... Najoh Tita-Reid: Logitech Head of Marketing Reinvention Kirk Perry: Google's former President of Brand Solutions Zena Arnold: Kimberly Clark's Chief Marketing & Digital Office Tarang Amin: e.l.f. Beauty CEO & Chairman Tiana Conley: Kellogg's VP of Global Cereal Mohan Mohan: P&G former international leader (Europe, Middle East, Africa) Jim Lafferty, Fine Hygienic Holding, CEO Emily Chang: McCann Worldgroup China, CEO Shelly McNamara: P&G's Chief Equality & Inclusion Officer Gurcharan Das: P&G's former head of India, Author & Scholar Michelle Crossan: Samsung Electronics' SVP of Strategy, Innovation & Transformation Jorge Mesquita: Johnson & Johnson's former Executive Vice President Charlotte Otto: P&G's former Global External Relations Officer Dian Alyan: GiveLight Foundation Founder & CEO A.G. Lafley: P&G's former Chairman & CEO Mark Tatum: NBA Deputy Commissioner & Chief Operating Officer Noel Geoffroy: Sanofi President, North America Consumer Healthcare Brian McNamara: GSK Consumer Healthcare CEO Amanda Clark: Papa John's Chief Development Officer Karan Bajaj: Whitehat Jr. Founder & CEO Sylvie Moreau: Coty's former President of Professional Beauty Jim Stengel: P&G former Global Marketing Officer Remi Kent: 3M's SVP & Chief Marketing Officer Tom Kuhn: PGA Tour, VP of Marketing Teri List: former CFO, the Gap, Dick's Sporting Goods, Kraft Foods Jay Sethi: Diageo Beer Company CMO & SVP of Diageo Convenience North America Lisa Gevelber: Google's Chief Marketing Officer for the Americas Jim Taylor: Arby's President Silvia Dávila: Danone - President of Latin America Kevin Clayton: Cleveland Cavaliers, VP of Diversity, Inclusion & Community Engagement Julio Nemeth: P&G's Chief Product Supply Officer Kristi Zuhlke: Founder & xCEO, KnowledgeHound Gordon Brunner: P&G's Former Chief Technology Officer Matt Story: Visa's VP of Global Marketing Partnerships & Advocacy Yolanda Talamo: Heineken Chief People Officer Brian Niccol: Chipotle Mexican Grill, CEO & Chairman Jorge Uribe: former P&G Latin America leader Keila Lazardi: Revlon Chief Scientific Officer Craig Bahner: Sara Lee Frozen Bakery CEO Tiyale Hayes: BET SVP of Brand Strategy & Marketing Jamal Muashsher: Valvoline President of Global Products Joe Arcuri: American Greetings CEO Peg Wyant: P&G's first female Brand Manager, Grandin Properties Founder & CEO Stefan K. James: Nationwide Insurance AVP of Marketing Bob Gilbreath: Hearty CEO & Co-founder Alicia Enciso: Nestlé USA's Chief Marketing Officer George Felix: Tinder's Chief Marketing Officer Mark Mercurio: Gorilla Glue President & CEO Luis Silberwasserat: Univision - President, TV Networks
Captain Hang-on Treestands on Recall Vidcast: https://youtu.be/sD7e78281TM The CPSC and Big Game Treestands now recall Captain Hang-on Treestands (2021 Batch #2M-0121). The plastic-coated cable crimps may slip during use, cause the standing platform to suddenly release, and create fall and injury hazards. About 1,030 of these treestands were sold nationwide at Dick's Sporting Goods, Al &Bobs Sports, Hilltop Sports, The Sportsmen, Perfect 10 Outdoors, Vanderbilt's # 817, VF Sports, Westbury Ace Hardware, Rocky's Great Outdoors, Backwoods Boys, Native Outdoors Warehouse, Simpson Manning Hardware, Simpson Plaza Hardware, The Co-Op, R &; L Archery, Keystone Country Store, Thruway Sports # 27 and Overland Park Scheels. Immediately discontinue using these tree stands and call Big Game Treestands at 1-877-343-8211 or reach them online at biggametreestands.com to either receive replacement cables or a refund. https://www.cpsc.gov/Recalls/2022/Big-Game-Treestands-Recalls-2021-The-Captain-Hang-on-Treestands-Due-to-Fall-and-Injury-Hazards #captainhangon #treestand #platformcables #fall #injuries #recall
EP283 - Year End Review It's our final show of 2021! We recap the US Dept of Commerce November Advanced Retail Sales Data. We do a deep dive into the retail industries growth from 2019 through November 2021. In those 23 months, the retail industry grew 22%, historically fast growth. There were clear winners and losers. If you want to follow along on with all the data, here is a visual recap of retail growth 2020-2021. (PDF Download). We also highlight the six most important trends of 2021. Amazon fulfillment capacity growth (Amazon and Walmart become shipping companies) Social Media becomes the discovery channel for e-commerce (led by live-streaming) Ultrafast delivery services Amazon invents and starts to scale a grocery store (Amazon Fresh) with just walk out technology Retail Media Networks explode, led by Amazon's $30B in ad sales. Retailers now compete with social media networks for eyeballs Apparel has shifted from designer led to consumer led, as evidenced by the meteoric rise of Shein We're so very grateful to our audience, both for the time you have shared with us, and for generous opinions, feedback, and knowledge that many of you have shared. We wish you all the very best holidays and New Years, and look forward to seeing you in 2022! Episode 283 of the Jason & Scot show was recorded on Tuesday, December 21st, 2021 http://jasonandscot.com Join your hosts Jason "Retailgeek" Goldberg, Chief Commerce Strategy Officer at Publicis, and Scot Wingo, CEO of GetSpiffy and Co-Founder of ChannelAdvisor as they discuss the latest news and trends in the world of e-commerce and digital shopper marketing. Transcript Jason: [0:23] Welcome to the Jason and Scot show this is episode 283 being recorded on Tuesday sept December twenty first twenty Twenty-One I'm your host Jason retailgeek Goldberg and as usual I'm here with your co-host Scot Wingo. Scot: [0:39] Hey Jason and welcome back Jason Scott show listeners Jason how are the holidays treating you so far. Jason: [0:46] They are treating me really well it's been super interesting what's going on in our industry and getting ready to take the family to California to see my mom and brother. Scot: [0:59] Very fun California versus Chicago seems like a smart smart choice this time. Jason: [1:04] Yes early and my relationship with my wife we agreed that we would visit her Michigan in-laws and Thanksgiving and my California relatives in December seems weather prudent if nothing else. Scot: [1:16] Yeah smart I like your like you're negotiating strategies so we are recording this here live on December 21st so we are in the very last tail end of holiday 21 and Jason you had some some interesting data that you had parse through that I thought we could start with it's going to be largely kind of the November data but it's kind of the best data we have, until we get into January and see how the holiday played out and then we'll do a quick checkpoint on what you're hearing from clients and then I think both of us wanted to kind of share our big stories for retail and e-commerce for 2021 so why don't you kick us off with some data. Jason: [1:57] That sounds amazing so yeah so the data we are talking about is the US Department of Commerce data we get a an update every month so you know last week we got the, the update that includes November and in general November sales were up sixteen percent from November of twenty twenty so I always coach people that we should look at year-over-year not month over month so pretty healthy growth in 2021 from 2020 if you look at year-to-date so January through November we are up about 18% from 2020 and if you look at e-commerce we were up about 12 percent from November of 2020 so I you know I always put this data out on social media and I got a ton of, interesting responses this year on that data everyone's like hey Jason why are you comparing to November of 2020 like we're in the middle of the pandemic everything was all topsy-turvy like it's like comparing, pandemic 2021 numbers to pain demick 2020 numbers isn't very helpful to me because everything is so confusing. [3:13] And so I kind of took that to heart like you know it is the best kind of comparison we have about how we're doing but I said oh you know the more interesting comparison is maybe we take. One step back and we compare the. The the last two years of data to two years ago so we kind of compare how much growth we've had during the pandemic with what girls look like before the pandemic and I hadn't hadn't really done that in a while and what I found was interesting and in a few cases it surprise me. Scot: [3:46] I feel like we should create a new word for this I'll work on it in the vein of a ship again yeah that's just boring I don't know. Jason: [3:54] Yeah yeah de or. Yeah every CEO in America has learned to say you're over two years ago by the way and for it's super funny for non-gaap metrics in the and in the 10-qs they. Like it's they kept they completely cherry-pick like if the number is good they take versus last year and if it's bad they take versus two years ago. Scot: [4:18] Yeah yeah that's the nice thing you need everything every number needs to be up into the right. Jason: [4:23] My takeaway there is you CEOs are oily. Scot: [4:25] We know we're strategic. Jason: [4:29] Got it potato potahto. Scot: [4:31] Cool what did this year over your year over year over last year review. Jason: [4:37] Yeah so if we say hey from how much has retailgeek grown in 2020 and 2021 as a two-year stack it has grown 22 percent, so you know people talk about like all the struggles and challenges we had during the pandemic but if I see if I got in a time machine and no pandemic just told every retail CEO how would you feel about growing 22% over the next two years, the vast majority of CEOs would have jumped at that and then if you said and our life is going to be totally disrupted by this pandemic. [5:14] I think every retail CEO in America would have said I'd be thrilled to get through the next two years with 22 percent growth so that was interesting and then I said I wonder how that compares historically so I got in the hot tub time machine and I pulled all the data from 1990 through today and I restated every year as its growth versus the previous two years to kind of come up with this standard metric to compare against the 22 percent and 22% is unprecedentedly high it's by far the biggest two-year growth we've had since 1990 there's only a few years that that just tickled 15% so I can 2000 we hit 15 percent and in 1994 we hit 15% but like, most of the. The this last decade we were kind of tickling in the kind of six to eight percent growth so 22 percent growth. On average for the whole retail industry is a huge win and unprecedentedly more growth than we would traditionally get does that surprise you at all. Scot: [6:26] It doesn't sort of make sure I understand it's all retail so it's offline and online in Aggregate and then you can't just divide it by 2 right because there's compounding in there so it's not really two years of 11 it's probably like I don't know 12 in an 8 or something. Jason: [6:41] Yes so you are correct now and. That 20 yes and all of this data it does include compounding the the compounding is an interesting point which will come up in a another piece of data in in just a minute but yeah so this is all like literally looking at the. Aggregate sales for 2019 and the aggregate sales for 2021 and saying how much bigger was 2021 than 2019. Scot: [7:08] Yeah did you run a kegger so in MBA school they would say well you can actually unpack the compounding by look at the compounded annual growth rate. Jason: [7:17] Yes yes I am familiar with the math I did not. Scot: [7:21] Okay it was two years it's not going to be that substantial yeah repeat. Jason: [7:24] No that's the yeah it's right typically like with like a five-year Horizon it makes a lot more sense but yeah it would have been interesting but it just I had to your data so I was just trying to come up with an Apples to Apples. Scot: [7:36] Not feels feels like a wind. Jason: [7:38] Yeah so then I said alright well that's interesting on average retail is a huge win. [7:44] Very obviously there are winners and losers so I said alright well let's look at all the categories that the US Department of Commerce gives us. Based on that 2-year stack and there were you know and who was at the industry average who wildly outperformed the industry average and who underperformed the industry average and there are some things that made total sense to me and we're not surprising and then there were some pretty big surprises in there so, the the category that out of the US Department of Commerce data that grew the fastest was, non store sales which is kind of our e-commerce proxy right and it grew 39 percent so almost twice as fast its total retail that's pretty intuitive you know again you're hearing a lot of. E-commerce growth is slowing. Wagon November as more people went back to stores you know compared to this like you know pandemic impacted 20/20 but when you look at onto your stack, e-commerce is still the fastest growing part of retail at group 39% from 2019 and that certainly didn't surprise me the next two categories sporting goods and building materials, also really didn't surprise me because we kind of talked about them being, the big pandemic winners that like you know people then go to the gym so they bought stuff from Dick's Sporting Goods people didn't go on vacation so they built a new patio with materials from Home Depot and so kind of all the that Services Revenue. [9:14] Shifted into retail and that gave sporting goods and building materials a big a big kiss. Motor Vehicles which at one point people were saying like oh my God that's going to be a horrible category in the pandemic Motor Vehicles actually outperformed the industry average so they grew at 24 percent versus 22 percent for total retail. And then here's where we start getting surprises. Slightly below the industry average was furniture and Home Furnishing so that grew at 21 percent versus the industry average of 22 and if you just asked me to bet I would have said in the same way that building materials and Home Improvement stores. Got extra spending from the pandemic I would have expected furniture stores to get extra spending from the pandemic as well and so it surprised me that they were only at the industry average and the only my only hypothesis is. Did they have more disruptions from supply chain like why. Was it just harder for them to scale up to make more sofas to meet the increased demand and so they, they grew healthy but they didn't grow as healthy as they might have because they they couldn't double their us Workforce to build more couches. Scot: [10:23] The feels right the furniture industry has been here in North Carolina that's our primary one and they're just destroyed by the supply chain they can't there was a series of events that couldn't get phone because of the fire and awesome remember that that seems like a year ago but it actually wasn't go to the summer and then with this quote-unquote Supply pain they haven't been able to get the other inputs like anything fabric while that stuff made in China and shipped over here and sitting on a boat somewhere. Jason: [10:50] Yeah and I feel like it's a double whammy for them because it's harder than ever to make stuff but there's actually they could sell more than ever before if they could make it so it's like, it almost feels worse than knowing there's demand that you can't meet. Scot: [11:01] Yeah it's painful. Jason: [11:03] Yeah so then general merchandise grew at 16 percent versus of retail 22 percent and then the one that surprised me most that I talk about a lot is grocery grew at 16 percent versus the industry average of 22 percent and I would have said man a ton of spending shifted from restaurants to grocery stores they were another pandemic winner and so I'll be honest I don't have a perfect hypothesis for why. Again sixteen percent is Healthy Growth and by historical standards it's better than any two-year period since 1990 so I don't want to say oh you know they had a rough time they had a good time but surprising that they were below the industry average to me a little bit. You have any great Insight that I didn't think of on why that would be. Scot: [11:52] I don't maybe it's like a mix thing underneath the hood like the e-commerce grew so much doesn't it like well I'll be in this category are rules so if. Jason: [12:02] Imperfect yes so you are right like one of the wrinkles in all of this is. The way the US Department of Commerce treats e-commerce as another category which is unfortunate right because you know when someone shifts from buying a exercise bike in a Dick Sporting Good to buying a dick exercise bike from Dick's Sporting Goods.com. The sale leaves the sporting good category in enters the non-store category and so that's. That's not really Apples to Apples and then of course this is all done with surveys that are in perfectly filled out by human beings and so how different retailers respond to that survey is also inconsistent so you got it. This data is super helpful directionally but you definitely don't want to get too wrapped around the axle of the minutiae of the data because it's just an imperfect methodology. [12:52] And so then the the categories they did the worst, do make sense with one outlier for a couple hours for me so gasoline only grew at 14%, you know again make sense to me that they you know underperformed when people aren't commuting to work surprising 14% sales are still pretty good growth clothing is near the bottom at 12% growth so again clothing over the last two years did not shrink they still grew at 12% which might have been their average rate of growth I should do that waiters pulled just the category growth over the last 30 years. But compared all these other categories obviously closing was was poor and the Very lowest category is restaurants and bars which still grew six percent so that all makes sense but then there were two two categories in the cellar that I would have expected to do better health and personal care grew at 11% and Electronics and Appliances grew at seven percent so those are both pretty far under the industry average and you know those are two categories. They had some complication they had pros and cons you know within that category but by and large I guess I was surprised to see them so well. Scot: [14:06] Yet Health and Beauty one because Aaron was zooming like the makeup sales shot way up so it's got to be a you know it was e-commerce. Jason: [14:15] Lipstick sales actually went way down because of the Mask but mascara and skincare went way up it's so funny bye. Um so, then I just did one other sanity check so you know people like a couple people a couple of Industry analysts even like responded to my data and said yeah just don't believe the numbers and I'm like just some understanding you you're saying you don't believe the US Department of Commerce numbers not like I didn't make any of these numbers upright bike. [14:45] And and the US Department of Commerce data is imperfect I would argue it's. The best we have access to and it's it's a bunch of you know PhD in statistics that have you know the force of law to you know to enforce compliance with their survey so I it's better than any other survey out there for whatever that's worth but so I thought how can I do a chance sanity check on this data and I'm like oh all the public retailers are required to report their growth every quarter so we could try to create a year over two year growth for all of these public retailers and compare it to the industry data and some of these public retailers are in a particular category so you can you know pretty safely assume all their sales are in that category so you could kind of use that as a sanity check so I pulled I don't know I guess it's about 25 companies and I converted their quarterly growth into a two-year stack and here I will confess I took a shortcut and if there's any mathematicians that want to help me solve this problem I will toy do it these. Draws numbers are not compounded growth so the problem is we don't have annual growth rates from the Retailer's we have quarterly growth rate so basically you have to. Aggregate for quarters of growth and then. [16:11] Calculate it over two years and so I took a lazy shortcut and I just added their. 20 growth to their 2021 growth so we have basically seven quarters of growth for most of these retailers and it's it's what they call a two-year stack which means growth from 2019 plus 2020 and while the math is not right there by the way right because of. Like the compounding problem of your 2020 growth include your you know growth over 2019. This is how most retailers reported in their earnings so when they talk about to your growth for these non-gaap measures where they try to put themselves in the best light and they report their two year growth they're almost never talking about a compounded number like if you read the footnote. They're they're adding the growth from those two years so this is how they're doing the math in most cases for whatever that's worth but so that's way more precursor than we need the retailer that grew the public retailer the grew the most over the last two years total shocker to me I would not have expected in a million years is Burlington Coat Factory. That Drew 85% and to put that in perspective, they sell apparel which did not do very well in the pandemic and they turned off their website their e-commerce site the month before the pandemic. So they didn't sell any a long line. Scot: [17:34] They're not really opening a lot of stores either. Jason: [17:36] No I mean they may have opened a couple stores over the whole two years but like this is mostly comp sales growth so it actually kind of, factors out new store. Scot: [17:46] Okay so it's cops okay. Jason: [17:47] Yeah this is these numbers that ye are based on currency adjusted comp sales just in the u.s. wherever possible so so Burlington's a total outliner congratulations to them surprising to me Amazon is was the second fastest grower and all public retail at 61 percent over two years which. Doesn't surprise me that super impressive but you'd expect to see them near the top of this list then you see Dick's Sporting Goods at 57 percent and again, like from from the industry data Sporting Goods was the second fastest growing category behind e-commerce so Amazon as a proxy for e-commerce and dicks is approximately for sporting goods makes total sense but then things start getting interesting the next fastest grower was Ulta which is personal care at 36 percent so they grew much better than did the. The personal care category now they're less than half the personal care category the slightly bigger version of them would be Sephora but Sephora is actually owned. Buy a house of Brands and so it's harder to get their data. [19:01] Bed Bath & Beyond group 35% which is impressive Target group 34 percent, Home Depot which again was in one of these these outperforming categories grew 33% was group 28% by comparison Best Buy grew 29% in this it doesn't surprise me the best bike route 29 percent but this is. Makes that the fact that Electronics was one of the slowest growing categories at 7% make even less percent make even less sense I guess it's it's hard to imagine how. Electronics only grew seven percent over the last two years when you know everyone bought all this extra equipment for homeschooling and home entertainment and then with Best Buy growing 29 percent it's even harder to imagine. Scot: [19:53] Yeah maybe in a perfect world you could then split like something like that into store non-store store / e-commerce and maybe that would tell the story. Jason: [20:00] Yeah yeah again that's like one of the few the, my few answers to to a number of these anomalies and then I know this is like all these numbers in a podcast sock but like then you start getting into like Abercrombie & Fitch 28% Costco 26 percent, Cole's Nordstrom's Walmart grew at 21% which again for you know a huge company, the fortune one company to grow at the industry average is pretty good Nike grew at 20%. T.j. Maxx at 15% and the the bottom three. A surprise into not surprises so the second worse and third two words were Dollar Tree in Dollar General at 10% growth which is kind of surprising. You know consumers were kind of flush with cash with all the extra economic stimulus they weren't really slowing down their spending and so like you know maybe it wasn't a great season for the value shoppers but a lot of the news was about how these dollar stores were opening tons of stores and we're really thriving so interesting that they both only Drew. 10% and then the the worst performing public company on this was Macy's which grew six percent over the two years not totally surprising. Scot: [21:18] Isn't that the one that Prophet G said was going to crush. Jason: [21:24] Be there be there the future of retailers Macy's not Amazon yeah this chart unfortunately yeah contradicts that prediction so we'll have to wait and see are you Scott Galloway fans you just hang on hang on to your stick to your guns. Scot: [21:38] Good luck with that. Jason: [21:41] Yeah so that's my the rabbit hole that the stupid November numbers took me down so as you can imagine none of my clients got any deliverables in November. Scot: [21:52] When people tell you they don't believe the data what are they reacting to. Jason: [21:57] I think there's a couple categories there are people that are like hey it's the the month-over-month is interesting but like. Who cares right because these are all anomalous months and that's why I went for this two-year stack and and so. My point was I think like when people are saying hey I don't I don't believe the data I actually don't think they meant they don't believe that this is the data that the US Department of Commerce reported I think they're both saying in some cases, I don't think the US Department of Commerce can count very well and what they mostly hang their hat on is is the non store sales not being right and that's fair right like when someone at Best Buy fills out a survey the US Department of Commerce would like them to put their e-commerce sales in one box and their store sales in another box. [22:47] And do they do that I don't know right and does every retailer do that. Properly and consistently I can tell you that the person assigned to fill out the surveys is generally not the most senior accountant at the it's usually not the CFO. Um so so that is imperfect and then what I think they're saying more is. Maybe don't make all your future plans based on like this snapshot of the world because you know we are looking at a unique set of circumstances that resulted in this data right so if you mistakenly thought my takeaway was retail is better than ever and you know everybody should double down because you know retailers is the most thriving industry in the world 22 percent growth is amazing and it's going to continue forever. [23:36] Yeah no that's not what I'm saying I'm just saying that like it's interesting there were positive and negative impacts on all these businesses as a result of the pandemic but on the aggregate. The impact was disproportionately positive and I don't think that that is sustainable right like I you know I think we will hope to drop down to the regular the sort of pre-pandemic growth levels and potentially. We pulled some growth forward and we might even see some more lean years because we you know absorb so much growth this time. Scot: [24:10] This a long way of you saying you now agree with the the Goldman Sachs chart that showed five years of acceleration. Jason: [24:15] No no I think that still is pretty clear and they were primarily talking about e-commerce which definitely didn't happen. Scot: [24:23] Checking. Jason: [24:25] So that's my my deep dive into data and if there's there can't be anything more fun than listening to a podcast about a bunch of dudes being a bunch of numbers so I will I'll do two things I'll try to put some of this data in the show notes but what I'll do is I'll put a link in the show notes to download some charts with this data in it. Scot: [24:46] Very cool I actually like you spewing data so maybe I'm just an audience of one. Jason: [24:53] You may be in a liar. Scot: [24:56] So what are you seeing so that kind of gets us through November what are you seeing here in December I poked around on the usual spots for the Adobe and the sales force and a couple others and it's really weird they've been kind of quiet since since kind of the Cyber week what what are you hearing from your clients. Jason: [25:17] Yeah so I don't know like there's not good data that's already reporting December sales for holiday but so anecdotally talking to a bunch of clients and talking to some of these companies that do have internal data. December is looking like a good month right and so the. My kind of aggregate estimate is holiday for 2021 is going to end up being about. Nine percent bigger than holiday 2020 and again you say well as nine percent good or bad by historical standards it's pretty darn good most most years we get about a holiday grows less than the rest of the year because there's so much extra volume in it so most years we get about five percent growth in holiday in 2019 we got four percent growth 9% is a big number and last year was a pretty big growth year and so. Um you know also around nine percent so nine percent on top of 9% is a. Pretty big deal I have seen some estimates that think it'll grow even more than nine percent this year to put that in perspective the last time before last year there grew nine percent would have been like 1999 so so not only do we have great growth over two years we do have great holiday growth one huge caveat. [26:43] The trend up until about a week ago was, that more people were returning to the store store traffic was going up we were seeing kind of pre-pandemic shopping behaviors and e-commerce was still a big deal bigger than ever before but the rate of growth was swelling because, there was so much pent-up demand and go to stores lots of people were planning on getting together with their family like there was a funny Walmart stat about you know how much bigger the turkeys were that got sold this year than last year because people were, we're entertaining a lot more so, unfortunately in kind of real-time chats with most of my clients in the last week we have seen foot traffic to stores dramatically curtail and it feels like. We're very quickly getting a lot of negative Media news around and I say media but I guess it's based on the data about Omicron and the hypothesis is there either, Omicron has people scared and so they're not going to stores or a second hypothesis is everyone desperately wants to have their family gathering so they're being extra cautious leading up to Christmas but in either case, we're seeing this last-minute pivot to e-commerce and that has some impacts like the shipping companies that actually been doing. [28:04] Much better job this year than last year on keeping up with ship again in but if suddenly everyone you know runs towards e-commerce these last two weeks that could really put. [28:15] Shipping in Jeopardy in a in a really vulnerable time when they have a lot of Labor challenges so yeah I don't know it's kind of a Debbie Downer bit of news in this whole thing. Scot: [28:26] Yeah yeah I'm a crime that has a it's going to put next year kind of up into a question mark of what happens is and then. The thing that's really frustrating trying to operate a business during this time frame is the bookmarks of good and bad are so wide that. Dirty you have no idea but you drive a truck through and right there 180 degrees so you read one new source it's like oh it's super mild and it's almost going to act like its own vaccine then you see another source and it's like we're all gonna die. Somewhere hopefully we're somewhere in the middle there. Jason: [28:58] Amen Ya Know It's Tricky yeah and kind of evaluating all these data sources that's like the new the new societal challenge right. Scot: [29:09] It really is. Jason: [29:12] So I'm wondering so that's that's kind of my holiday snapshot some good news and some bad news in there I wanted to take a couple minutes on this podcast because I think this is going to be our last show of the year to kind of zoom out from the minutiae and just kind of think about the year in totality and kind of, don't know you know highlight what we think are the big things that happened in our industry this year that might impact us going forward how do you feel about that. Scot: [29:39] Let's do it you want to go first. Jason: [29:41] I mostly wanted you to go first because I thought I would surprise you and make you get bet answers while I thought about it. Scot: [29:48] Okay I'll go first so so I'm going to try to limit it to three because we. Yeah we could go on for for a long time here so I think the highlights of this year for me, it would be a Jason and Scot show if we didn't think a little bit about Amazon the. Build out of Amazon's shipping infrastructure and I feel like we say this every year but it's accelerating and there's some really good data we want to have a guest on that's publishing some data on this just Amazon has built more capacity in the last two years than they had in the last 10 so they've used the pandemic as a you know the response to it and they've gotten kind of cover I guess you could say is to really. 10x down on fulfillment infrastructure where where you get the most feeling of that is that the last mile which is this DS p– program that they've just really scaled up massively. This touches my my day job because it's Biffy we'd service a lot of these folks and they're just they're everywhere and, you know it used to be they would kind of work out a fulfillment systems then they built these fulfillment centers now they've got these see the last word of station what are they call them. [31:02] Delivery stations that have a whole new nomenclature where they now are have these forward-deployed areas where the dsps are almost housed and Aggregates you'll go to these places and it's pretty well that I've seen several of them now and they'll be like 20 dsps operating out of there these little micro businesses and you know just. [31:22] Prime Vans as far as I can see. Where is the stat that I think is kind of the most interesting is the Amazon did disclose that they plan to ship more than then FedEx this year and then I think they said in the next couple of years they'll exceed the USPS as far as package delivery it doesn't surprise me just given the scale that they are throwing at this thing. For example you can't buy a van today because the Amazon is just pretty ordered all the vans so it's pretty fascinating the scale they've done there. The thing that in our will do our annual predictions but I've been annually predicting that they would compete more directly with FedEx and UPS by offering just package delivery to anybody I just feels like we're a lot closer to that but I say that every year so we'll see, the other surprise for me is the explosion of this 15-minute grocery delivery world the most people have probably their first experience this or the first company heard was go puff and it wasn't really a 15-minute thing it was just kind of faster it was almost hours then you had instacart really scale up and then what's happened is the service level on these things it's got lower to the point where they're all trying to get you something in 15 minutes. It's a smaller number of skus than you would get with like Amazon's 300 million skus available so it's typically going to be. [32:43] You know you probably have a cool word for it but it's like snacks and oh my gosh I'm out of a soda I need or ice cream things that you kind of have an urgent hankering for and are willing to pay to scratch that itch a little bit more. On the shipping and handling fees and those kinds of things these are kinds of things when I talk to people they're like yeah that little the economics will never work in the be no one will ever use it and then everyone's always surprised because you can never underestimate the convenience or any consumer that when you give them the choice to do something with convenience they will, they will do it and they will order things you would never have thought about. I remember when Amazon rolled out Prime now they were shocked that the toilet paper and personal products were such a high considered item and it's just you know. People people don't plan ahead and they run out of stuff and they want it right then and there willing to pay extra for it so that one's pretty interesting and you track this probably even better I do Amazon's going after this one and then there's like, 10 startups in there that are have all raised, billions of dollars go puff just announcer one and a half billion dollar extension of their last round by layering on some debt so there's one called like gorillas or gorillas and. [33:55] Tons of these things out there but Amazon scaling it up too so it's gonna be interesting to see if any of these guys can make Headway against Amazon or Famas on will just crush them. [34:05] And then the last one is live-streaming this one sputtering in the US, every data point outside the US indicates it's a thing and I do think this one's going to translate from I've seen it I've seen data that shows that as a has expanded out of China and that's kind of where maybe a year ago we were talking about it largely on Alibaba platform. But now I think it's there's European startups I'm starting to see some categories in the US where this is interesting I followed the collectible category and there's a couple of the hot companies are they do these live streams where they will do. Unboxings so they will they will buy a pack of cards from like the 80s and then they will open them live and and see what's in there and and you know, it's kind of riveting if you're if you're into that and you're like I wonder you know there's a one in 100 chance that this has a Michael Jordan rookie card or something and they pull that the column poles that can be fascinating so there's a lot of. Kind of very specific category activity going there that I think I think a lot of us thought okay Amazon's and do this Amazon is tried and it's been pretty terrible but I think it's going to come from these really niche of Articles at first and they're going to figure it out and then you'll see it get more more momentum up into the broader retailers so those are those are my three. Jason: [35:27] Wow those are three good ones I feel like you stole my three I'm just kidding um no but I totally agree with all those I do think like we've actually seen Amazon launch some. Selling of shipping services and I've seen Stan said they're going to deliver 90% of their own packages this holiday so like I think that definitely is a thing even Walmart is now, selling shipping services to other people including Home Depot so that's totally interesting Trend hundred percent agree on the live streaming like I kind of call it the D bundling of shopping and you know we have all these e-commerce sites that are good at buying things but we're not very good at product Discovery and it seems like social and video or where a lot of the, the new product discoveries coming from and then that that ultra-fast delivery for filling orders to give you all the words you are asking about the that that's a huge thing and if you think about you know how much retailers are struggling with with grocery profitability like it's a double whammy that wow they're trying to figure out how to solve for profitability the consumers moving to this even you know inherently less profitable order so it's going to be that that's going to be an interesting disruption of the industry so if I were to add 3 to that. I do think just the whole pandemic. [36:41] Acceleration of great digital grocery like is when I talk about a lot and I still think that that is a huge thing like all those predictions about how much the pandemic was accelerating e-commerce for probably wrong but grocery delivery Ecommerce probably did get accelerated five years and to me maybe you know what will ultimately end up being one of the most important things that happened during the pandemic is Amazon invented a new grocery store right this Amazon Fresh concept and it's starting to scale there's more than 30 of them now they have just walk out technology in them which I would have bet against them having this quickly and there are there are lots of investigative journalists that have found. Some interesting real estate footprints that would imply that it's going to scale their that there's a business plan footing out here that had like 300 of these in the UK which is a small island um I think we could look back five years from now and see Amazon is a very meaningful brick-and-mortar grocer and and I think 20:21 is the year it it happened without us totally acknowledging it so I think Jay W groceries an interesting Evolution one that I end up talking about a lot with my clients also driven by Amazon is retail media networks right so you know Amazon, is that a run right now of about 30 billion dollars in ads it's probably the most profitable business Amazon has I think this this. [38:08] Battle for eyeballs between retailers and traditional digital platforms is super interesting and I think you know you set the layer who is. One of the the. The key guys at Amazon media like we had him on the show when he moved to Fresh Direct and he's now running Walmart Connect Four for Walmart so you're seeing the Retailer's hire these like credible media sales people and I think that's a. [38:37] A going forward a significant part of every retailers plan is how to be their own media Network how to get eyeballs and how to monetize those eyeballs and that's a new new skill for a retailer so I think that's a big deal and then the last one I'm gonna throw out, is one that I am surprised doesn't get talked about more but it's the apparel retailer she in and I think they are super interesting they've had phenomenal success they're probably globally the largest apparel reseller on the planet right now and their their annual revenues are more than than H&M and Zara combined so so remarkable. [39:18] Story of fast acceleration but the bigger story here is, to me Sheehan is very representative of the democratization of apparel that like for the longest time we expected Mickey Drexler or Versace or Yeezy to tell us like what was cool to wear and then we waited until we can buy those clothes and we bought them and I just I think that model is totally dead now I think the apparel that sells best the stuff that she and sells the stuff that target cells the stuff that Stitch fix cells is frankly based on customer data it's watching customers finding out what they like and then making it really fast and so Sheehan isn't isn't fashion driven by a stylist It's Fashion driven by Tick-Tock right and an Instagram and I think that's a, a lot of apparel companies haven't gotten the memo yet that the consumer is now squarely in charge of these fashion trends. Scot: [40:18] Yeah saw an article about these guys were this this one lady she did this Argyle Sweater outfit and. It was on Instagram it got some viral love they took that and it created a hole the outfit they had copied it or I guess fast fashion and I don't know how the how the IP Works in this world but they had replicated it and they I think they even used her picture which I think was with articles about that she didn't really you know, realize that that effectively shows open sourcing this thing to the world and then it became a top seller for them like in 60 days it was insane how fast that they identified the trend and get the. The product out there it was like you know NASCAR fashion or something. Jason: [41:03] Yeah it's crazy if you think about like the fashion traditionally worked like. Dudes would show up in Paris at the Fashion Show and show these cool Styles and then everyone would steal those Styles and send them an effector he's and two years later those fact those Fashions would be available at Neiman Marcus. Two years later and in so the genius of Gap was that they got those Fashions to the mall, 18 months later instead of two years later and the the disruption of H&M and Zara was that they got them to the mall six months later instead of 18 months later right. She and sees that woman in the crop-top Argyle Sweater and they have they have that fashion available in a week and here's what super interesting they don't make a million of them and hope they sell which is what all those other retailers had to do, they make 12 of them and if those 12 sell in 8 seconds versus 20 seconds then they make thousands of them. Right and so it's really data-driven real-time a/b testing on apparel trans at a speed that that these kind of traditional apparel Brands can't even imagine. Scot: [42:13] That's because they have the factory right there that they're able to do that or like to have some. Jason: [42:17] Yeah and they. In Shane's case they don't own the factories they have a net like that it's a gig worker economy for factories right like so in the same way that boober recruits a bunch of Uber drivers she and recruits a bunch of factories that they then go to and say hey we've got some some ideas for some new models and find one of those factories that accepts the order and makes the the stuff and so in sometimes there's our Factory driven ideas sometimes there she and driven ideas but but yeah that's that's the model and you know there is a Dark Side to this I got you know a lot of its there's a lot of questions about the labor standards and practices at a bunch of these factories and of course there's. You know a lot of the stuff that gets bought on Shion is super cheap and gets worn once and so it's a ecological disaster I would argue the industry it's disrupting is also. Kind of a you know it has a lot of dark sides and and is not very sustainable so I like I'm not sure she and improves on on any of those problems but from a pure consumer demand standpoint, I don't think we're ever going back to you know these like anointed tastemakers that like decide what we're all going to wear for the next year. Scot: [43:32] Yet clearly clearly that model is sailed having. Jason: [43:36] Indeed well listen Scott I know we both have to run but that is probably a great place to wrap up our final show of 20:21 I need to take some downtime not to see my family or anything like that but in early January we always like to record the forecasts show and hit traditionally you crush me and so I feel like I need to spend a lot more time thinking about my forecast before the forecast show comes up. Scot: [44:07] Yeah challenge accepted I will also be thinking about this in a background processes I'm enjoying the holiday I think this is a good time to thank our listeners you know we've you know we've seen our listenership grow pretty steadily over the years and we really appreciate everyone giving us time to your day to talk about the topics we talk about and we get a lot of great feedback and really engaged set of listeners and we really appreciate you listening and if you want to share your appreciation one of the ways you can do that is through a five star rating so fire up your favorite podcast listening technology and if you would leave us a five starters we that would be the perfect holiday gift for us. Jason: [44:47] Yeah that's exact five stars is exactly my size to Scott. Scot: [44:50] How about that. Jason: [44:53] Awesome well most of can't appreciate enough the listeners for spending this time with us every week this is a lot of fun for us to do and I learned so much from the the chats I have with folks after they listen to the podcast so I'm that is one of the things I'm super grateful for. Scot: [45:10] Everyone have a great holiday Jason you how enjoy your trip to California. Jason: [45:14] Thank you you have a wonderful holiday as well and until next time happy commercing!
Jody nominated Emmus for a WEBE108 Maritime Chevrolet Christmas Wish after Emmus saved her son's life last year. Jody's son got his head stuck in a car window, and Emmus heroically freed him from the window. Her son was in a coma for two weeks, but luckily survived. A truly incredible story! We're happy to grant Emmus $1,000 to Dick's Sporting Goods and $108 to Duchess Restaurants.
Emmett Golden in for Fitz. He and Spain talk Urban Meyer's ouster, the Browns' COVID outbreak taking out two QBs and a big TNF game. Adam Teicher and The Athletic's Daniel Popper join to preview the Chiefs and Chargers, respectively. Plus, the WFT center/male model who caught our eye, cheesy movies getting us into the Christmas spirit, 1010XL's Mike Dempsey on the Jags post-Meyer and a raccoon in the studio.
The retail sales report for November underwhelms Wall Street. Comments from Lowe's executives cause momentary panic. Jason Moser analyzes those stories, and we discuss why the CEOs of The Trade Desk, Cloudflare, and Dick's Sporting Goods should receive strong consideration for “CEO of the Year”. We want your input! Please click the link to take our 4-question survey about TMF podcasts: https://www.foolinsights.com/se/04BD76CC18830996 Holiday Song - If We Make It Through December by Pistol Annies
➡️ Like The Show? Leave A Rating: https://ratethispodcast.com/successstory ➡️ About The Guest Jerome Maldonado is a highly successful real estate investor, business owner, salesmen, coach and speaker. Over the span of his 20-year career, Jerome has built an eight-figure empire and has mentored people from around the world in sales, real estate, and business. Over the course of his career he has built multiple 8 figure businesses, bought failing businesses such as Radio Shack, Pier 1 Imports and Modell's Sporting Goods. Built a team that includes the likes of Tai Lopez and Alex Mehr. One of the largest Subway franchisees in the nation, as well as owner of beauty salons, juice bars and more as well as a global keynote speaker, business leader, and mentor. ➡️ Talking Points 00:00 - Jerome's story. 09:54 - Overcoming imposter syndrome. 23:30 - Recovering after a recession. 27:38 - How to find the right business partners. 34:17 - How to grow a real estate empire. 52:52 - Subsidizing your own skill set. ➡️ Show Links https://twitter.com/JeromeMaldonado https://www.instagram.com/jeromemaldonado1/ ➡️ Podcast Sponsors 1. Laika — Compliance Tools & Software https://heylaika.com/success (20% Off) 2. Playbook — Grow Your Wealth https://helloplaybook.com/scott 3. Get Abstract - Summarized Books & Movies https://getab.li/success 4. Crowdhealth - A Better Insurance Alternative https://JoinCrowdHealth.com/99 (Code: SuccessStory) 5. Hubspot Podcast Network https://hubspot.com/podcastnetwork
In this Real Estate News Brief for the week ending December 4th, 2021... the $2 trillion real estate milestone, the homebuyer's search for suburban homes, and the brick-and-mortar store comeback.Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review.Economic NewsWe begin with economic news from this past week. Pending home sales surged higher in October. The National Association of Realtors says they were up 7.5%. That's substantially higher than the .7% predicted by MarketWatch economists. Contract signings were higher in all four U.S. regions, but the Midwest had the biggest gain of 11.8%. (1) Home price growth has cooled off a bit. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-city price index shows a 19.1% year-over-year gain in September. That's a half a percent lower than it was in August, which is not much of a decline. Craig Lazzara of the S&P DJI says that housing prices continue to show remarkable strength. He describes the change of pace as “deceleration.” (2)The weekly unemployment report shows that initial claims jumped back above the 200,000 mark. Just two weeks ago, the number of applications hit a 52-year low of 194,000. It could be that some people decided to wait until after Thanksgiving to file for their benefits. (3) The U.S. jobless rate has fallen again, from 4.6% to 4.2%. MarketWatch reports that almost 600,000 people rejoined the workforce in November, and the participation rate of 61.8% is now the highest it's been since the beginning of the pandemic. (4)If we look at job growth for the construction industry, builders added 31,000 positions last month. Specialty contractors created the most with 13,000 new positions. Civil and heavy engineering accounted for the rest. First American economist Odeta Kushi says: “It was a strong month for construction.” (5)Mortgage RatesMortgage rates didn't move much this last week. Freddie Mac says the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was up just 1 basis point, to 3.11%. The 15-year was down 3 basis points, to 2.39%. (6)In other news making headlines…$2 Trillion in Real Estate Deals for 2021?Real estate transactions could hit a huge milestone this year. CoreLogic says they topped $600 billion in the second quarter. That's after $750 billion in transactions for the first quarter. Researchers say if the trend continues, we'll hit the $2 trillion mark by the end of the year. (7)CoreLogic economist, Thomas Malone, says it's a combination of high home prices and the migration to bigger homes in more expensive areas. He says: “The value of transactions has skyrocketed despite sales volumes continuing a relatively normal growth trend.”The report also shows that if you look at the last four quarters from the second half of 2020 to the first half of 2021, real estate transactions have already hit the $2 trillion mark. CoreLogic says the total value for that time period was $2.25 trillion.Suburbs Are Not Losing Their AppealThe desire for a home in the suburbs is still going strong, even as many people return to the cities. Realtor.com says that 62% of the online home views in September were for suburban homes while the other 38% were for urban areas. (8)Realtor.com's chief economist, Danielle Hale, says the pre-pandemic suburban vs. city dynamic is changing because of remote work options and high rents in the city. She says: “The price premium is shrinking between notoriously expensive urban housing and suburban for-sale homes, typically known for more bargains.” Inventory levels also reveal the difference. They were down 13% annually in September for suburban areas and only 8% for cities.More Stores Opening Than ClosingE-commerce may have disrupted the retail environment and put a lot of brick-and-mortar stores out of business. But now, the opposite appears to be happening. According to a new analysis by the IHL Group, there are more store openings than closures for the first time in four years. And many of those new openings are due to e-commerce websites wanting a brick-and-mortar presence. (9)As reported by the Wall Street Journal, Levi Strauss is one example. The clothing company plans to open 100 U.S. stores over the next five years. Dick's Sporting Goods is another example, with plans to open more than 800 stores under several brand names. And of course, there's e-commerce giant Amazon which is planning to open its own department stores.For 2021, IHL expects that 4,361 more stores will have opened than were shut down.That's it for today. Check the show notes for links. And please remember to hit the subscribe button, and leave a review!You can also join RealWealth for free at newsforinvestors.com. As a member, you have access to the Investor Portal where you can view sample property pro-formas and connect with our network of resources, including experienced investment counselors, property teams, lenders, 1031 exchange facilitators, attorneys, CPAs and more.Thanks for listening. I'm Kathy Fettke.Links:1 -https://www.marketwatch.com/story/pending-home-sales-surge-higher-in-october-will-the-new-covid-variant-trip-up-the-real-estate-market-11638198301?mod=economy-politics2 -https://www.marketwatch.com/story/home-price-growth-slows-even-as-the-cost-to-buy-continues-to-hit-records-11638281060?mod=economy-politics3 -https://www.marketwatch.com/story/jobless-claims-climb-28-000-to-222-000-in-thanksgiving-week-11638452207?mod=economy-politics4 -https://www.marketwatch.com/story/coming-up-u-s-jobs-report-for-november-11638537320?mod=economy-politics5 -https://www.housingwire.com/articles/residential-construction-jobs-slowly-return/6 -http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/7 -https://www.corelogic.com/intelligence/2021-is-on-pace-to-be-the-first-multi-trillion-dollar-real-estate-market/8 -https://magazine.realtor/daily-news/2021/11/29/suburbs-remain-popular-even-as-cities-stage-comeback9 -https://magazine.realtor/daily-news/2021/11/29/first-time-in-4-years-more-store-openings-than-closures
Zach Ertz is playing for a new NFL team for the first time in his nine-year career after the Eagles traded him to the Cardinals in October. Ertz has been a welcome addition to the Valley of the Sun, catching 23 passes on 31 targets for 279 yards and three touchdowns in six games after catching 18 passes on 31 targets for 189 yards and two touchdowns in six games in his former home. Ertz and his wife Julie, a great athlete in her own right, have taken their passion for helping others from Philly to Glendale as well, and this week, they took kids from a local Boys & Girls Club to a shopping spree at DICK's Sporting Goods. Ertz talked with us about that, as well as his fit in Kliff Kingsbury's offense, how Kyler Murray is an impressive as any player he's ever seen, and how it feels to perhaps make the second Super Bowl stretch run in his career.
It's been a great year for value investors as cheap stocks like Diamondback Energy and Dick's Sporting Goods have soared over 100%. (0:30) - Will 2022 Be The Year For Value Investors? (4:00) - Tracey's Top Stock Picks (21:20) - Episode Roundup: FANG, PNC, DKS, TOL, MOS Podcast@Zacks.com
It's been a great year for value investors as cheap stocks like Diamondback Energy and Dick's Sporting Goods have soared over 100%. (0:30) - Will 2022 Be The Year For Value Investors? (4:00) - Tracey's Top Stock Picks (21:20) - Episode Roundup: FANG, PNC, DKS, TOL, MOS Podcast@Zacks.com
We're joined by Chris Bell, CEO & Founder of Perch, one of the fastest growing and most acquisitive companies offering a platform to e-commerce brands leveraging "Fulfilled by Amazon" and other third party marketplaces. We learn how the model works, why the business model is attracting so much investor interest, and what's on the horizon for one of the hottest sectors in retail today. And if you run a brand looking to be acquired, you'll definitely want to check this episode out.But first we open up with the top retail stories that caught our attention this past week, including what to make of the "Great Rebalancing" evident in earnings reports from Best Buy, Dick's Sporting Goods and Nordstrom. We also give our take on the new hybrid format from Starbucks and Amazon Go.Steve Dennis is an advisor, keynote speaker and author on strategic growth and business innovation. You can learn more about Steve on his website. The expanded and revised edition of his bestselling book Remarkable Retail: How To Win & Keep Customers in the Age of Disruption is now available at Amazon or just about anywhere else books are sold. Steve regularly shares his insights in his role as a Forbes senior contributor and on Twitter and LinkedIn. You can also check out his speaker "sizzle" reel here.Michael LeBlanc is the Founder & President of M.E. LeBlanc & Company Inc and a Senior Advisor to Retail Council of Canada as part of his advisory and consulting practice. He brings 25+ years of brand/retail/marketing & eCommerce leadership experience, and has been on the front lines of retail industry change for his entire career. Michael is the producer and host of a network of leading podcasts including Canada's top retail industry podcast, The Voice of Retail, plus Global E-Commerce Tech Talks , The Food Professor with Dr. Sylvain Charlebois and now in its second season, Conversations with CommerceNext! You can learn more about Michael here or on LinkedIn. Be sure and check out Michael's latest venture for fun and influencer riches - Last Request Barbecue, his YouTube BBQ cooking channel!
Happy Thanksgiving! This week the guys hear from Toby Turkish and talk about Bret's job change, weird snacks, Thanksgiving plans, a Letter from the Northern Frontier, and strange movies. Tell a friend, tell a hobo... As always send questions and comments to firstname.lastname@example.org Thanks for listening, ENJOY IT!
Best Buy, Dick's Sporting Goods, and Zoom Video all issue 3rd-quarter earnings reports with a similar pattern: better-than-expected results followed by shares falling. Asit Sharma analyzes all three and shares why he believes the short-term pain for shareholders should be buoyed by the strength of each business.
With a short holiday week, we're changing up the format a bit… so no monologue today. But I have an exciting—and controversial—interview for you tomorrow (hint: It's one of our most downloaded guests of all time). [0:35] I love this time of year… It means I get to look forward to the annual Consumer Electronics Show (CES), held in Las Vegas in January. Here's how I'm preparing… [3:05] Following another great quarter from Dick's Sporting Goods, Daniel and I debate whether now is a good time to buy the stock. [3:55] Best Buy also reported solid earnings… yet it's trading over 10% lower. I share why, despite strong results, many retailers are in a tough position compared to this time last year. [6:35] Keeping with retail, Daniel explains why he's more bullish than ever on Amazon, Target, and Walmart… and why last week's selloff in the latter two names isn't anything to worry about. [12:20] Markets are near all-time highs and many growth companies are sporting huge valuations (electric truck maker Rivian comes to mind)... But when it comes to growth stocks, you can't just focus on valuation—I learned this lesson myself with Netflix and Tesla. [20:40] Big news came out of the oil sector this week: The U.S. announced it would be releasing 50 million barrels of oil from its strategic petroleum reserves (SPR) to help fight higher prices. Prepare for a rant: The Biden Administration is making a huge mistake in terms of national security… and it could lead to the destruction of the U.S. economy. [26:35] That said, as we know… there's a way to profit in any market. And Daniel shares two names set to benefit on the news. [34:50] And finally, if you haven't heard yet, Luke Downey's Big Money Trader has officially launched. Here's how Luke's options strategy can help you make the most of the market's sudden moves. [37:07] Enjoyed this episode? Get Wall Street Unplugged delivered FREE to your inbox every Wednesday: https://www.curzioresearch.com/wall-street-unplugged/ Wall Street Unplugged podcast is available at: --: https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/wall-street-unplugged-frank/ -- : https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/curzio-research/wall-street-unplugged-2 -- : https://www.curzioresearch.com/category/podcast/wall-street-unplugged/ : https://twitter.com/frankcurzio :. https://www.facebook.com/CurzioResearch/ : https://www.linkedin.com/in/frank-curzio-690561a7/ : https://www.curzioresearch.com
Collin Wright, MBA Candidate at The Wharton School, is back on this episode of The Trade-Off to check in on this grad school journey and shares his internship experience at Dick's Sporting Goods. For more information, email us at email@example.comFollow us on Twitter @SarianStrategicFollow us on Facebook, LinkedIn, Instagram @SarianStrategicPartners
We kick off the show with Jeania Canel of Jay's Sporting Goods talking about ammo, gun sales and muzzleloaders. Then Elliot Shafer of the Michigan Wildlife Council has an update on the Here for Generations campaign to promote hunting and fishing in Michigan.
What a week in MLW. The premiere of World Series Game 3 has really grown the hype around this incredible showdown between the Wildcats and Diamondbacks. Tommy and Jack weigh in on what they saw in Game 3, even diving into the specifics of the controversial calls. Two fans call in as well to share their opinions on the series. Later, Alec Warda joins the show to talk about the event MLW helped put on in support of Dick's Sporting Goods and Nike. And finally, the hosts have a little tale derail regarding their experiences with video games.
Nick has shingles, it's horrible, and he needs to talk about it. In addition to the shingles talk, we also talk through upcoming Friendsgiving plans and lots more, so we hope you enjoy this week's episode as much as we enjoyed recording it.Here are links to everything we talked about on this week's episode:Is your interest in shingles now piqued? Do you want to know what exactly it is and if you can get it? Learn all about shingles from Mayo Clinic.Mollydooker makes really fun, yummy wines. You can learn about why their wine should be shaken (not stirred) by watching this video. We had a bottle of Enchanted Path Shiraz - Cabernet this week.Bridget loves these Dick's Sporting Goods holiday advertisements. They're festive and helping her get in the "fa la la" mood.The second most expensive house on Geneva Lake just sold, and Crain's Chicago Business has the scoop. We want to know who bought it!Shout out to the Antetokounmpo family for celebrating the birth of their second child (Maverick) by hosting a fundraiser for the Milwaukee Diaper Mission!Pyrex Bowls - it's leftover season and glass is better than plastic. Bridget recommends finding some at Goodwill or getting a set like these.Nick is finding shingles relief with CeraVe Moisturing Cream. If your skin ails you (and it's about to get itchy and dry!), you should get yourself some of this miracle cream. If you like what we're doing here on the Dinner Plus Drinks podcast, here's how you can follow along and get in touch with us:Watch on YouTubeVisit our websiteLike us on FacebookFollow us on InstagramGet links to follow the podcast in your favorite appOr email us at: hello /at/ dinnerlusdrinks /dot/ comThanks for listening, we hope you have a great week!~ Bridget and Nick*If you make a purchase using our links, we may get a commission. Thanks for supporting the podcast!
Podcast host and Niner Noise contributor Robert Morrison (@rs_morrison) is joined by NN associate editor Peter Panacy (@peterpanacy) to discuss the upcoming Monday Night Football matchup between the 49ers and the Los Angeles Rams. They talk about how the season has gone at roughly the halfway point, more long term injury news, and whether there's any hope for a Niners' upset. After that, Peter is joined by 49ers' fullback Kyle Juszczyk (@juicecheck44) to talk about his partnership with Dick's Sporting Goods, insight on his return to San Francisco during free agency this offseason, and much more. The Niner Noise Podcast on the 49ers, the FanSided Podcast Network's San Francisco 49ers pod, is your source for SF 49ers news, in-depth analysis, exclusive interviews, and more! See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
In this week's Fast Five Podcast, sponsored by Takeoff, the A&M Consumer and Retail Group, and Attentive, Chris Walton and Anne Mezzenga: - Explore what Amazon taking Venmo means for the future. - Praise Sobeys for its new "flex store" concept. - Debate YouTube's right to win in livestream commerce. - Have a blast talking Burberry's interactive deer NFTs (yes, you read that right) for Singles' Day. - And, close with a look at why Nike teaming up on loyalty with Dick's Sporting Goods shows why Nike is still one of the best omnichannel retailers around. There's all that, plus how we like our pretzels, Adele's new single, and both of us calling Jeff Bezos's alpha male flex pose to keep Leonardo DiCaprio away from his girlfriend what it is -- an HGH induced mid-life crisis. Be careful out there, – Chris, Anne, and the Omni Talk team To redeem your $300 discount on the Manifest Conference, visit: https://manife.st/continue-registration/?couponCode=MANIFEST_PARTNER&refId=OmniTalk To learn more about the A&M Consumer & Retail Group, visit: https://alvarezandmarsal-crg.com/ To learn more about Takeoff, visit: www.takeoff.com/ To learn more about Attentive, visit: www.attentivemobile.com/omnitalk Plus, check out our ranking in Feedspot's 45 Top Retail Podcasts: blog.feedspot.com/retail_podcasts/
Leroy slowly but surely is turning into an old person as he tells us a story of him at Dick's Sporting Goods this weekend, 15 Minutes of Heat and Tobin is back on his Billie Eilish ish again at these Heat pressers. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
https://twitter.com/CaraCastronuova https://www.caracastronuova.com/ https://www.instagram.com/caracastronuova/ Cara Castronuova is a celebrity fitness trainer, athlete, activist and media personality. She was featured as a head trainer on NBC's hit television show “The Biggest Loser”, where she helped propel the show to its highest ratings ever. Castronuova is a champion boxer and past nationally ranked two-time Golden Gloves Champion. She has acted as a spokesperson for many sports, fitness and nutrition companies such as Puma, Modell's Sporting Goods, The Sports Authority, Kind Bars and Purium Health. She made history by becoming the first female spokesperson on Everlast's extensive roster of champions. She holds a master's certification by the International Sports Science Association, and she is certified as a boxing coach by the New York State Athletic Commission. Castronuova has created content for & appeared as a sports figure & fitness/health expert for outlets inc. NBC, MSG, Entertainment Tonight, E!, Bravo's "Top Chef Masters", Cablevision Channel 12 News, Fios, various major "Morning Shows", Newsday, The New York Daily News, The New York Post, Shape Magazine, Women's Health Magazine, TMZ, The National Enquirer, TV Guide and as the feature story on the cover of "USA TODAY" She appears regularly as a boxing reporter, color commentator/analyst and fitness expert on various media. She is currently an apprentice judge and referee for USA Boxing. Her personal goal is to be one of the first females in the modern day to referee a professional male heavyweight championship fight. Castronuova has trained extensively in martial arts and other fighting techniques, which led to past acting opportunities primarily as a stuntwoman and stunt coordinator. Castronuova combined her fighting and training background to start her company, Fighter Fitness Corp., whose mission is to help people find “their fighter within” and make their own comebacks on the road to good health. Castronuova is most proud of her work in founding “Knockout Obesity Foundation”, a charity dedicated to helping youth who struggle with obesity and need help in obtaining a healthy lifestyle. She currently acts as Executive Director and spokeswoman. She is also the Program Director of many of the Foundation's projects, and has successfully created and operated various notable community fitness programs for children and adults. She has spearheaded programs such as popular “Woman Warrior” and “Kid Warrior” camps, aimed at empowering women and children by teaching them the virtues of boxing. Her programs have had tremendous media support and coverage. They have earned the support of local politicians, police, civic groups and members of the communities they serve. She is also actively involved in creating community programs aimed at keeping endangered youth and young adults off the streets and in the boxing gym. Castronuova believes that boxing is an excellent metaphor for teaching youth certain virtues that will impact their lives overall and assist them in growing into better people and citizens of society. She believes that community boxing gyms are a deterrence to gang violence and keep kids off the street and in the gym. Her vision for Knockout Obesity Foundation is one that will continue to embrace this philosophy and successfully implement programs into communities that are in dire need of intervention. Please see www.caracastronuova.com, www.knockoutobesityfoundation.org or call 1-844-CARA-FIT for more information. Follow her on Facebook, Instagram and Twitter for her latest updates. https://www.addyadds.one/ Telegram: https://www.t.me/oneaddyadds YOUTUBE: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCR8UoUPvixzHTDPv_qkF7wg FACEBOOK: HTTPS://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/ONEADDYADDS TWITTER: HTTPS://TWITTER.COM/ONEADDYADDS BITCHUTE: HTTPS://WWW.BITCHUTE.COM/CHANNEL/BGELNAOKAOII/ PAYPAL: HTTPS://PAYPAL.ME/ONEADDYADDS PATREON: HTTPS://WWW.PATREON.COM/ADDYADDS VENMO: HTTPS://VENMO.COM/ADDYADDS UGE TUBE: HTTPS://UGETUBE.COM/@ADDYADDS BRANDNEWTUBE: HTTPS://BRANDNEWTUBE.COM/@ADDYADDS RUMBLE: HTTPS://RUMBLE.COM/C/ADDYADDS Streamyard Referral Link: https://streamyard.com?pal=6421268531249152 Free 4K Youtube Video Downloader: https://www.4kdownload.com/?ref=adakinolsen Rumble Video Referral Link: https://rumble.com/register/AddyAdds/ Melon App Referral Link (Like Streamyard but cheaper!) https://melonapp.com?ref=addyadds https://cash.app/$AddyAdds B T C : 19LZoqmcHjxTnxs5tHv5qpgo971iD3vXVH
Today I'm joined by Jeff Veldhuizen, CEO of Capti — a game-based smart bike. In this episode, we discuss Capti's immersive gaming experience. Jeff explains how Capti differs from other connected equipment makers. And he shares the company's long-term goal of powering fitness in the metaverse. More from Fitt Insider Fitt Insider helps operators stay informed and make better decisions. We produce a weekly newsletter and podcast, curate an industry jobs board, and invest in early-stage companies. Subscribe to our newsletter: https://insider.fitt.co/newsletter/ Visit the jobs board: https://jobs.fitt.co/ View current investment and get in touch: https://insider.fitt.co/investments/ More from Jeff A respected leader in health and fitness, Jeff's career range includes general manager of high-growth businesses, growth marketer, strategist, and operator in CPG, CE, Sporting Goods, e-commerce, and connected fitness. A tech-driven marketing and direct-to-consumer executive, Jeff has been an integral part of shaping some of the world's most recognizable brands and their online presence. https://capti.co/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/jeff-veldhuizen/ https://www.instagram.com/capti_bike/ https://www.linkedin.com/company/capti-fit/ https://www.facebook.com/CaptiSmartBike
by Scotty Reid The research company Statista reported recently that the 2020 revenue for the global athletic shoe market or sneaker market was valued at around 70 billion U.S. dollars annually, and it reports that the market is forecast to reach a value of 102 billion U.S. dollars in four years. Sneakers as they're popularly known in the United States became a fashion staple in the Black community around the late 1970s and 1980s owing to their growing popularity in part to the early interactions of hip-hop culture. Not only did break dancers, an athletic form of dancing that included elements of gymnastics, need comfortable shoes to perform but matching the shoes to an outfit, a fashion statement was just as important to the performers. Then in the mid-80s came along one Michael Jeffrey Jordan, who had one of the best NBA careers of his era, and became arguably the first global influencer long before the age of social media. Nike's media campaigns really leaned into a proud Black Identity without overtly showing their hand, by telling everyone to Just Be Like Mike, a Black man in a white-dominated society! It helped that Jordan the man was not one to wade into the social-political sphere once quipping that “republicans buy shoes too” when asked to endorse the Black Democrat Harvey Gannt, the former mayor of Charlotte, North Carolina, who hope to defeat the lifelong white supremacist, Senator Jesse Helms. Another bonus for Nike was that Jordan the man would likely not be raising any issues with Nike's labor practices let alone concern himself about where the Jordans sneakers were manufactured. Nike's iconic commercials, one starring, directed, and produced by famed Black film director Spike Lee at the peak of his popularity, somewhat of a Black cultural icon and a basketball fan in his own right, the media campaigns made Nike's Jordans brand its signature shoe driving the majority of its sales and thus profits. Sneakers are still a foundation of Black fashion trends, so it's logical that Black consumers are still the foundation of sneaker purchases thus driving the profits for the top global corporate brands like Adidas, Converse, Nike, and Rebook. However, most if not all manufacturing is done in countries like Indonesia, Vietnam, and China. The dollars the Black consumer market spends on these products often do not turn into employment opportunities for the communities where these Black consumers are geographically located. Corporations have long since outsourced manufacturing jobs where the corporations contract with factories in foreign countries where employers pay workers what would be considered slave wages in the US, wages well below the ridiculously low US Federal minimum wage. Enter the Covid 19 Pandemic! The coronavirus pandemic is having an impact despite the 2020 sales, COVID 19 did not arrive in the United States until the last two months of the calendar year. CNBC reports the sneaker giant Nike, the main supplier to Dick's Sporting Goods, a national retailer, is having supply chain issues. The same issues are also affecting other industries that rely on outsourced manufacturing. Despite the upward global trend in the demand for sneakers, with projected sales crossing the 100 Billion per year mark, Nike lowered its internal fiscal 2022 outlook due to the disruption in the global supply chain. Longer transit times, labor shortages abroad with prolonged production shutdowns in Vietnam, a major player in the manufacturing of Nike brand shoes. CNBC also reported that “In a recent conference call, Nike chief financial officer Matt Friend said the company anticipates its entire business will see short-term inventory shortages over the next few quarters.” It stands to reason that if the majority of the sneakers were manufactured in the United States, it stands likely that it would alleviate the pressure on the not being able to meet demand because of a disrupted global supply chain....
Hour two kicks off with Mike Horswill from Jay's Sporting Goods. Mike is an expert when it comes to processing wild game and he has great tips. Michigan DNR biologist Brian Roell is up next. Brian discusses the factors involved in Upper Peninsula whitetail numbers. The hour wraps up with this week's “Ask Avery” segment. This time, Chad Stewart of the DNR talks about the EHD outbreak in southern Michigan.
On February 21, 2020, Mitchell Modell, CEO of the largest family-owned sporting goods retailer in the United States went on national TV and made a shocking announcement-he asked viewers to help save his company from financial collapse. The 130-year-old brand at one point was a fixture in the northeast U.S. as the premier sporting goods retailer. Find out how Modell's winning streak came to an end on Episode 39 of The Great Fail. Thank you to our partners at AdvertiseCast. https://www.advertisecast.com/TheGreatFail Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
I spoke with Lauren Hobart, President & CEO of Dick's Sporting Goods, who has some breaking news to share! We also speak about her career, what she does as CEO, and her role models! Check it out! --- This episode is sponsored by · Anchor: The easiest way to make a podcast. https://anchor.fm/app
On the first half of this week's #ThursdayRoundup , Shane was joined by our #CollegeFootball analyst, Brent Beaird. Then The Prep Zone's Marvellous Marty Pallman joins the program to cover all the goings-on in our Baker's Sporting Goods #HSRoundup
We continue the DNR conversation in hour 3 as I talk with Big Game Specialist Chad Stewart. Chad has thoughts on the upcoming deer season, proposed regulation and disease concerns. Matt Poet of Jay's Sporting Goods joins me next to talk about their 50th Anniversary Celebration. We wrap it all up with Chef Dave Minar. This week, it's a very nice walleye recipe.
Apple loosens its rules for app developers. Peloton stumbles on slowing growth. Best Buy and Williams-Sonoma report big earnings. And Dick's Sporting Goods hits a new high. Motley Fool analysts Emily Flippen and Jason Moser discuss those stories and weigh in on the latest from Autodesk, Bill.com, and Elastic. Plus, they share two stocks on their radar: Traeger and The Glimpse Group. Plus, Matt Argersinger, lead advisor of Millionacres, a Motley Fool investing service, discusses red-hot REITs, Amazon's department stores, and the impacts of COVID-19 on commercial real estate.
Happy Friday! 今天提到的公司： Salesforce(NYSE:CRM) Dick's Sporting Goods(NYSE:DKS) 了解如何開啟訂閱制: https://reurl.cc/7rG2Vb 快來看看超讚的付費訂閱用戶專屬福利: https://othewaytowork.com/pages/podcast 商業新聞101 安可場 這邊報名去！ https://www.accupass.com/go/otw2 通勤族日常大募集: https://forms.gle/ob6SDgWVCcdUerkC7
Dick's Sporting Goods soars to a new all-time high while Nordstrom plummets on sales that are lower than pre-pandemic levels. Bill Mann analyzes the retail landscape and weighs in on SEC Chairman Gary Gensler's declaration that the SEC is going to demand more transparency from Chinese companies.
Hour 2 features Jeff Poet of Jay's Sporting Goods. He talks about the history of Jay's and their 50th anniversary. Dan Kennedy from the Michigan DNR wraps up the hour with details on the Recovering America's Wildlife Act.
EP272 - Q2 Ecom Data, Earnings, and Amazon News US Dept of Commerce Data In July retail sales were up 13.3% from previous July (down 1.1% from June). Year to Date sales were up 21.1% vs. 2020. Apparel is in the biggest recovery, up 63%. At peak of pandemic, restaurants lost nearly $51B/mo of sales to grocery stores. In July the gap has closed to $4B in sales. Restaurants sales for the past two months are higher than two years ago. Retail sales for all of Q2 2021 grew 28.2% from Q2 2020, e-commerce in Q2 grew 9% during the same period (due to the very high covid driven e-com last year). E-Com was 13.3% of retail sales for Q2. Q2 Retail Earnings Reports Walmart – US Comp Store sales up 5.2%, E-Commerce up 6% Target – US Comp Store sales up 8.9%, E-Commerce up 10% Home Depot– US Comp Store sales up 3.4%, E-Commerce flat Lowes– US Comp Store sales down 2.2%, E-Commerce up 7% Stores selling essential goods are comping against a very large 2020 basis in Q2. Most stores saw increased foot traffic driving store growth. Concerns about Covid resurgence and supply chain disruptions loom for Q3 and Q4. Amazon News NYT wrote that people now spend more at Amazon than Walmart – Jason says the number are debatable and that's besides the point. WSJ wrote Amazon Plans to Open Large Retail Locations Akin to Department Stores. We discuss Episode 272 of the Jason & Scot show was recorded on Thursday August 20, 2021. http://jasonandscot.com Join your hosts Jason "Retailgeek" Goldberg, Chief Commerce Strategy Officer at Publicis, and Scot Wingo, CEO of GetSpiffy and Co-Founder of ChannelAdvisor as they discuss the latest news and trends in the world of e-commerce and digital shopper marketing. Transcript Jason: [0:24] Welcome to the Jason and Scot show, this is episode 272 being recorded on Thursday august 19 20 21 I'm your host Jason retailgeek Goldberg and as usual I'm here with your co-host Scot Wingo. Scot: [0:39] Hey Jason and welcome back Jason Scott sure listeners Jason we had a little bit of a break in there you had vacation and I got to focus on car washing and it's good to be back together. Jason: [0:53] It is I had a great time but I did miss you. Scot: [0:57] Oh I did see that while you are on vacation your company won a big Walmart deal so I think they would like for you to go on vacation more often. Jason: [1:09] Yes that is the general consensus the like I have great empathy for anyone in these spaces where you have these like huge drawn-out pitches but this was like. More than five month pitch and. Not shockingly it took the the client a little longer to pick a winner then they they promise so I you were kind of. On pins and needles for a long time and then I went on vacation and we got a good result so I think all my my co-workers my the hundred of my co-workers that were involved in this pitch with me like are all eager for me to work even less than I already do. Scot: [1:48] Well I heard it was because Doug mcmillon listens to the podcast. Jason: [1:54] Yeah amongst others so Chef to all of our listeners from Walmart thank you so much for putting your trust in me and all the mean things that get said about you on the podcast all come from Scott please remember that. Scot: [2:08] Absolutely not I love Homer I probably spend more time in a Walmart than you. Jason: [2:13] That is debatable but I do know that you are a legitimate Walmart Shopper and and you have an awesome use case for Walmart. Scot: [2:25] Which one are you referring to. Jason: [2:26] I feel like Walmart is your go-to for hard to find Star Wars collectible toys. Scot: [2:34] That is true I have spent many a midnight at a Walmart waiting for the pegs the toys to be hanging from the pegs and it's just the best time to be at Walmart is the best people people watching that 12:00 to 3:00 a.m. period. Jason: [2:47] Yeah they're there are some interesting shifts that go on at a Walmart store especially the 24-hour ones. Scot: [2:57] And then I'm super jealous because on your vacation you've got to go two galaxies Edge before me and that is for the non Star Wars fan folks in the audience that is the new Star Wars attraction at both the California and Florida Disney parks. Jason: [3:16] Exactly and it was awesome we went to California Disneyland as many listeners will know I'm a dad in the body of a grandad so I have a, almost six year old son so we took him to Disneyland for the first time and generally, my my Advanced age is a disadvantage but in this one case it was an advantage because I had a much better excuse than you do to take time off from work and go to Galaxy's Edge. Scot: [3:43] Awesome well I'm bummed was it fun how would you rate it. Jason: [3:48] I highly recommend it I mean yes the whole trip was fun Galaxy's Edge lived up to my expectations and there's. Kind of too wet in the old days we would have called e-ticket rides in Galaxy's Edge. Smugglers Run on the Millennium Falcon and this much more extravagant ride called rise of the resistance and they were both awesome I would say rise of the resistance is the best ride I've ever been at an amusement park so so, totally cool totally worth it and you for sure have to go and I'll go with you when you're ready. Scot: [4:22] All right strong words were gone we'll take we'll take all the listeners will take your mom and you know some of the other folks with us. Jason: [4:31] I'm sure a lot of listeners would love to go the one that wouldn't would be my mom because my six-year-old dragged her on every roller coaster at Disneyland and he had a blast but she was like white-knuckled the entire time. Scot: [4:43] Okay so she's already checked the Box. Jason: [4:46] Exactly exactly you're not a big enough draw only the grandson is a big enough traffic to your bed. Scot: [4:53] Well I'm glad you had an awesome vacation and the last time we recorded a podcast was one of my favorite days which is Amazon earnings and today is one of your favorite days of the year this is when the US Department of Commerce who sidebar has been on the podcast they drop a big load of data what did you discover in the data. Jason: [5:15] Yeah so just side note I just to be jealous of my my month Disneyland. Got got invited to keep working with my my favorite client for for the foreseeable future and I got quarterly e-commerce data from the US Department of Commerce so that's what I call winning. But yeah let's jump into it so. We're recording this on a Thursday on Tuesday the US Department of Commerce released their monthly retail sales data so super brief. Primer recap they published data every month. For the previous month and that's called the advanced retail monthly data it's kind of a quick look at the the month it was 15 days prior. And then they publish more comprehensive set of data for two months back which would be like 45 days prior. So so that's the data that we got on Tuesday and of course we're all pretty interested in what July looked like because there was this whole kind of. [6:19] Covid recovery and people rushing back to stores in the pivot from online back to stores and then there you know had been a lot of like negative news and rebounds because of Delta and so you know it's kind of interesting to see. See how the the data swung and so in general, if you were someone that looked at month-over-month retail sales it was a Debbie Downer month so Joel I was about one percent lower than June, but as I have counseled many times on this show that's not a very important number to look at what we really want to look at is July 20 21 against July. 20/20 so so year prior data and retail sales for for this July were 13.3% higher, then last July so ordinarily that would. Um cause for a party that's a huge growth like ordinarily we see like kind of for to unit three to four percent growth year over year in total retail sales so 13% is huge. But of course. Last July was still pretty impacted by by covid so we have this weird basis and as we'll talk about later that's why most retailers are talking about year over two years at this point but so first data point. [7:44] July was a good month it was up 13 percent from the previous July. [7:51] We I also like to look at year-to-date sales so I add up all the months and January through July of this year is up 21% versus January through July of last year, which is also very healthy and again half of that period would have been pre covid versus last year so that's that's encouraging and then, there isn't a. [8:14] In awesome measurement of e-commerce in the monthly data especially the advanced monthly data but there is this thing called non store sales which is kind of the closest proxy we have to e-commerce and that's where things got interesting it was about 5.9 percent up from last year so way slower growth. Then you would normally expect for e-commerce so you normally expect retail the girl about four percent in e-commerce to grow 12 to 15% so so retail growing 13% is unusually fast and and Ecommerce growing 6% is unusually slow. But again if you think about the fact that last July a lot less people are going to stores and instead spending online. It kind of It kind of fits so I would from my perspective, there was nothing there was nothing like super anomalous in this data it's kind of where we would have expected it to be and then I like to dive into the categories and see if there's anything important in the categories and again the categories are kind of where you would expect, by far the category that's most up this year versus last year on a monthly basis and a year-to-date basis is a Peril so the apparel industry is like. [9:32] Sixty-three percent better this year than it was last year because they were just absolutely creamed by by covid last year restaurants and bars or up thirty percent over last year but then there's some some categories that actually did well in covid but are still pretty significantly up so things like furniture and home, Sporting Goods those and consumer electronics are all up significantly. Even though they generally got a covid boost so. That that is pretty interesting and then the thing that I most look at specifically related to covid is. In covid everyone bought all their food from grocery stores instead of restaurant so restaurants got creamed grocery stores did really well and so we've been watching to see if that. [10:26] Goes back to pre covid levels and it's getting awfully close so you know in. March of last year seventy percent of the calories got sold by grocery stores 30% by restaurants and that's a that's a that meant 60 billion dollars a month in sales that used to go to restaurants were going to grocery store so that's huge. And in July that Gap it became kind of, 52 versus forty eight percent so only a 4% Delta and pre covid-19 t-50 so that's that's about four and a half or five billion dollars a month, that grocery store still winning that they didn't win before covid but not surprisingly. Like people were eager to go back to restaurants and they are going back to restaurants and that's one of several indications we've seen that while. Digital grocery grew a lot during covid and it's going to keep some of those gains it does not appear to keeping all of those games and we are seeing some backslide and we're seeing that in things like like instacart sales as well. Scot: [11:40] Yeah there's been wasn't there a rumor that instacart was looking to be acquired. Jason: [11:46] Yeah yeah there's a few things out there there is a rumor that instacart was talking to doordash. And then Super interesting this week and I'll put a link to it in the show notes former guest and friend of the show Dan McCarthy who remembers the, the professor at Emory that specializes in in customer lifetime value and cohort analysis he got a big. Set of credit card panel data from Ernst research and he was able to use it to kind of. [12:20] Back into the gmv which in the restaurant business or the grocery business they actually would call govt Gross order value um and he was able to kind of figure out the size and stickiness of doordash and instacart and what he found was, instacart got a bigger covid bump than door – but that door – is much stickier and and has a much higher rate of repeat customers than instacart in fact. About 30% of he found that about 30% of door – Shoppers repeat and only about 20% of instacart Shoppers repeat and that that difference, is is very meaningful in the financial outcomes for those two companies and he kind of estimated that insta cards govt is probably around twenty three billion dollars on an annualized run rate so he kind of looked at it and said hey instacart does appear to have significant weakness versus door – and and so it kind of lien when the some Credence and some tangible Nest to the. The rumor that you know instacart might be on a covid peak in trying to sell at it's at its high we've also heard just some rumors that they're you know struggling to retain some of their there, customer Sellers and some things like that so so it's going to be an interesting space to follow. Scot: [13:48] Any other surprises from the dinner. Jason: [13:50] Nothing wildly surprising in later in this podcast we're going to talk about earnings and we're going to talk about Home Depot and Lowe's reported and so sort of a preview I would say like. Um the do-it-yourself category was a category that did really well in in covid-19, um and so you you know it's interesting to see like if that sticky if have you know as people are starting to go out more are they are they stopping the investment in their home and or are they reinvesting in their home this year is that a new habit so I've been watching the do-it-yourself space and it had modest growth. From last year so I want to from memory I want to say it was about eighteen percent up from last year and last year was a very. Hi year so that that's interesting and I won't spoil it but it's going to be that number will be even more interesting when we talk about how Lowe's and Home Depot. Scot: [14:53] Let's jump into it. Jason: [14:54] Okay so the next thing I wanted to talk about is so I mentioned that this monthly data doesn't have awesome e-commerce data in it. The US Department of Commerce publishes much better e-commerce data but they only publish a quarterly and that's why this week is so fun is because this is one of those quarter months when they publish both the monthly data and the quarterly data so we just today got the cue to e-commerce data from the US Department of Commerce and the top line here is Q to 2021 Drew about 28% from Q2 2020 and e-commerce. [15:38] I'm sorry tale so that's all of retail which like that's way higher growth than you normally see and eCommerce growth was 9% for that period so lower. Then you would normally expect to see right and again that kind of follows the trend here. E-commerce was artificially High last year and so you know even though it's growing it's growing against a bigger base and so the growth this year does not look as big. So a lot of people are you know trying to talk about. Growth on a two-year stack but that 9% growth becomes super interesting when you think back to Amazon you know Amazon got beat up because their rate of growth slowed a lot they were down to 22 percent but 22% still means you're more than growing more than twice as fast as the industry average. And as we're going to see you later like much faster than most of their competitors so so that that is pretty interesting and then a ton of news then writes like e-commerce is down. Because nine percent is lower than we would usually expect but I just want to remind people. That down doesn't mean what you think it means like like we sold more stuff online in Q2 of this year than we did Q2 of last year and Q2 of last year was amazing. It's just the rate of growth is slowing down. Scot: [17:02] This is where I always get confused because the headlines that came across my CNBC trackers were retail sales were down 1.1 percent and worse than expected. Jason: [17:14] Yeah so that was. Scot: [17:15] How do I reconcile that with 28%. Jason: [17:18] Yeah well so the 1% is monthly and it was that mean that was down month over month so that's June to July so, July 2 July monthly going back the retail sales were actually up by 13 percent which is much more healthy and Q2. Versus last Q2 retail sales are up what did I just say 20 that's the. Scot: [17:48] But okay but then the month-on-month is interesting because why do you you know if we're still coming out of covid you would expect it to be kind of climbing up even if we were heading into the fall or. Jason: [18:00] What you have to remember about consumer spending patterns and Retail is there it's all heavily driven by these purchased occasions and there's a bunch of purchase occasions that are tied to date and so the spending patterns you'd expect to see in July are different than the spending patterns you'd expect to see in June so there's there's more people spending on summer activities in June than July and there's more people starting to spend on back to school in July then in June and so there are all these factors that make it really hard to. Compare month-over-month in West you you do some like heavy seasonal adjustment gymnastics and even that tends to not work because, some of these these purchase occasion shift from month to month from year to year so sorry it's complicated. Scot: [18:51] Got it dads and grads will scrap it up two dads and grads being in June. Jason: [18:57] Yeah but so I mean my biggest takeaway is like as a retail I guarantee you every retail team I work with care a lot more about there. Their sales bases from last year than they do their sales bases from last month. Now the Miss versus analysts expectations that's a separate story and some you know obviously is you know like investors tend to get squeamish when, when the recharge missed the analyst expectations but it's super hard to predict analyst it's a tough job for the analyst right now given all the uncertainty around health and covid and we simultaneously have states where they're throwing parades because covid over and people are opening up and then we have states where their reinstituting Mass mandates so it's. It's like high degree of uncertainty at the. [19:51] Um so in that climate some poor companies had to report their earnings and face investors and so this was to me a fun week for earnings calls, Walmart reported their their Q2 earnings Target reported their Q2 earnings Lowe's and Home Depot reported their Q2 earnings and then TJ Maxx reported their cue turning so it's a pretty fun week in retail earnings um and. Again I tend to focus more on the operational metrics and less on the investor metrics so you know there were some beets and some misses in there that impacted stock performance and I don't pay that much attention to those. [20:33] As a reminder because Amazon reported a couple months ago and we did a whole show a couple weeks ago we did a whole show about it, Amazon is predominantly e-commerce and Amazon's Q2 was up 22 percent from Q2 of last year so so, put that data point in your head and then you go okay home Walmart and Target how did you guys do Target was up eight point nine percent. Which was a beet and Walmart was up 5.2% which I want to say was a meat if I'm if I'm remembering right so so both those retailers did pretty well they sold a ton of stuff last year during covid and they sold significantly more this year. Um with less of a covid impact and less of an economic stimulus impact and so that that. Was pretty encouraging both retailers throughout cautions about. Their performance the rest of this year and so both retailers I think had some negative movement in their stock based on there, um on there like forward-looking expectations but not based on their performance so so again. [21:53] Amazon twenty two percent Target at eight nine percent will call it and Walmart at 5%. Um that's their total sales e-commerce was a much more interesting story targets e-commerce grew ten percent. [22:09] And Walmart's e-commerce grew three percent and those numbers are tiny by historical standards right so Amazon is all e-commerce so their 20% growth means their e-commerce grew 22% so the so Amazon's e-commerce grew more than twice as fast as Target and more than four times as fast or about four times as fast as Walmart so that that makes Amazon's performance look even more impressive if you think about Target like last year. [22:41] They grew a hundred and ninety-five percent so, so again like really sucky to comp against that that huge huge Peak and last year Walmart grew a hundred percent so they're comping against a huge Peak so the, the story of Q 2 for all these retailers is going to be, you know how do they hold on in their total retail sales can they kind of beat the industry average and then. You know where do they fall on e-commerce and candidly like. Target Walmart and Amazon kind of don't surprise me what surprised me was Lowe's and Home Depot so remember I told you earlier that, the do-it-yourself category is crony US Department of Commerce is performing reasonably well it's like up like eighteen percent so. Home Depot with retail sales for the quarter were only up 3.4 percent and lows sales were down 2.2%. [23:52] So Kind of hard to reconcile that in my head like there are many other do-it-yourself retailers besides Lowe's and Home Depot. I almost think this is like highlighting a problem in the US Department of Commerce categorization because it just, I can't put together a model where Home Depot only grew by 3 / 3.4% where lows went backwards 2.2% and yet the whole do-it-yourself category went forward, yeah but that being said Home Depot's e-commerce and super cheesy how they report this like they Home Depot totally tried to bury this but Home Depot's e-commerce growth was flat, they did not grow from last quarter from this quarter last year again off a big basis they grew a hundred percent last year and then was grew seven percent. Which you know again that that's actually better growth than Walmart and Lowe's also had a big basis they had a hundred and thirty five percent so on an e-commerce standpoint you'd say like glows actually kind of out performed in e-commerce but then the bad news for Lowe's is they way underperformed and in terms of a brick-and-mortar thing which is of course much more meaningful to them. [25:11] Um so those were kind of the monthly earnings so. That I you know I think that is a trend the other thing that came out in these earnings calls is both Walmart and Target talked about how last year retail traffic was way down but ticket size was way up people came to the store to last and they bought more in each, trip almost all the retail growth we saw this quarter was from increased trip frequency, so it was almost all tied to more people walking into Targets in Walmart like there's probably pent-up demand go shopping from people that were we're doing more of their spending online so this is kind of, all of these data points are converging to say that people are are had kind of online fatigue and we're happy to go back to stores and we're seeing that in the industry data we're seeing that in the earnings data and you know it's going to be really interesting to look at Q 3 because. It's not clear that that trend is going to continue based on some of the the health news and. State restrictions that are getting imposed and certainly based on some of the international news. Scot: [26:22] Yet it was this time last year when we kind of coined the ship again, I wonder if we're teeing up for you even kind of a tougher holiday this this may be kind of teased out of the date a little bit like maybe maybe Lowe's was down because of supply chain issues of you know they just couldn't stop the stores I don't know that that's one way to explain kind of why one retailer would be doing bad but the category did it better, and yeah so you know the supply chains are all jammed up there's just all the way from Manufacturing to hear stories of you can't get room on boats and certainly planes and then when it gets here you can't get it off the dock because there's not enough trucks and then you know I'm living the nightmare scenario where you can't buy vehicles and I have a business built on being buying Vehicles so you know there's you know. The whole system's and need to add capacity for delivering more and there's literally no vehicles to be had due to this tube shortage so it's gonna be really interesting next four months to see how this plays out. Jason: [27:35] Yeah no a hundred percent agree I'm super concerned about holiday the inventory levels like wouldn't really show up in the, the kind of reported earnings like where it would come up in is the transcript of the investor calls and I'll confess I didn't listen live to I did listen to Walmart and Target I didn't listen live to Home Depot or Lowe's I kind of skimmed the transcript so I can't I don't I did not see, then calling out supply chain as a reason for this quarter's performance it definitely was called out as a risk factor for there. Their future performance and what was a little interesting is Walmart and Target vote both went to Great Lengths to express that they felt like they were going to be in a good inventory position for holiday and I say that because none of us are expecting them to be in a great inventory position for holiday so they're they're trying to. Push back that narrative and it like obviously those are two of the biggest retailers that have a lot of Leverage over the supply chain so it's like, you know if anyone can buy inventory it's going to be them and they're saying they've invested early and they think they've got the inventory they need for Holiday locked up. Your points are all, super valid like every step in the supply chain is more expensive and more fragile right now and the one that you didn't mention is. [29:05] It's also just harder globally to get stuff made and you know if you look at the global, like flow of covid there's really only one economy economy that completely recovered and got a hundred percent of their retail foot traffic back for example and that was China and guess what China is, like in the throes of a Delta pandemic and foot traffic to retail as way down like they've had a back slide and that has impacted factory production and productivity and you know you mentioned one tangible, way that's playing out as these chip shortages but like there's a bunch of them and then we also have this Global labor shortage, and a place where it's been particularly hard to hire people is in warehouses and factories and so I here in the United States we've got like a bunch of Labor shortages we've got a bunch of labor dispute so I want to say Mondelez has like three big factories under strike so Santa may not be able to get Oreos this Christmas like there's a lot of those things playing out right now so I would say, that Walmart and Target may have locked up enough inventory but there's. [30:21] Severe uncertainty about the holiday and I think everything we talked about for ship again in last year's going to be worse this year. FedEx and UPS have both announced their surcharges for holiday and they've already informed most of their customers of what there, how they quotas will be so that's going to for sure come into play the US Post Office which historically has not had surcharges is adding surcharges this year so lots of stuff going down and again, I'll be shocked of Amazon has as much capacity as they want but you know Amazon unique amongst all these retailers owns a lot of their own capacity and in fact. They're huge Amazon air Hub in Cincinnati just went online so. Yeah yeah and even when you can get stuff it's just more expensive like I want to say that like average price of a container with six thousand dollars last year and it's 22 thousand dollars right now so. Scot: [31:19] Effort Amazon Seller say 40,000 I don't know. Jason: [31:23] I think yeah it depends on what you know but yeah and so I again I've seen like. Retailers by part of a porch in Canada I want to say, um Canadian Tire like literally bought a shipping Port you know we've seen lots of retailers including Home Depot by their own container Freighters like, we're seeing all kinds of crazy reaches up into the supply chain to try to protect capacity so it's it's definitely going to be interesting. Scot: [31:54] We will keep listeners posted well this is the place to go to where we're called it last year early and we're going to keep tracking it and calling it early this year. Yeah and then since we're doing a news episode it wouldn't be a Jason and Scot show without a little. Jason: [32:15] News new your margin is there opportunity. Scot: [32:23] That's right Amazon news Jason I saw this one got your dander up a little bit on on the the Twitter there was a New York Times article where they talked about how Amazon is now officially a hundred percent without any argument bigger than Walmart and an article what they do is they use a third-party source for GM v data which I actually appreciate this because for a very long time I was trying to help educate people that that you can't just look at Amazon Revenue numbers that their impact is bigger because there's this kind of Iceberg neath the surface of gmv that matters because if someone buys something from a 3rd party seller for $100 other retailers lost $100 they didn't lose the around $10 commission that Amazon shows us Revenue so I thought this was pretty interesting and when you you gross up now the number they used was pretty aggressive I don't know who this this Source was I don't have a subscription but it seemed a little aggressive and the lines are definitely going to cross I thought maybe they had pulled it into your to what we're I know this kind of got you a little agitated what what do you think about this. Jason: [33:39] Yeah yeah so it's super interesting it's a great article it's it prompted a lot of conversation I am mildly annoyed so first of all the I have seen as a result of this this article got written in the New York Times and it's a very accurate article. But it then got echoed by hundreds of other Publications and it got. Progressively worse so a I thought that would warm your heart is a ton of these articles go to Great Lengths to explain why revenue is in a valid way to compare these retailers and what gmv is and it's like. They all have discovered this year what you've been been teaching all of us for four. Probably 10 years now at this point we're old but so that was kind of fun so the New York Times article the headline first of all was people now spend more at Amazon than at. [34:33] And then the subtitle is the biggest e-commerce company outside of China has unseated the biggest brick-and-mortar seller. And so what this article is saying is, they're using a gmv estimate from a data company that sells data to investors and so it's a Wall Street analyst firm called factset and facts that said, Walmart's trailing 12-month gmv, was 500 Global GMB was five hundred sixty six billion dollars and Amazons 12-month gmv was six hundred and ten billion dollars so for the first time Amazon's Global gmv is higher than Walmart's and so Amazon has finally passed. Past Walmart and you know we've hit this big milestone that everyone should be talking about right like so that was their article and nothing in its wrong I would argue that the fact that data tends to be on the aggressive side but, maybe aggressive for both and, facts that is not estimating gmv for Walmart just you know like they're using revenue for Walmart and they're using GM V for Amazon and as you know, Walmart now has a meaningful Marketplace why got you know I don't think they've disclosed what the. [35:59] The ratio of 1 Peter 3 p is but Walmart has said they're going to sell 75 billion dollars online this year so. That you know their gmv is likely significantly larger than their revenue but the biggest reason this isn't an apples-to-apples comparison is these two companies don't sell in the same countries right so Amazon's and many more countries than Walmart so you know their incontinence that that Walmart isn't in and, the there India is a quite large Market both of these companies are significant players in India, the Amazon includes India sales in their gym in the fact that Jim V there are the facts that GMB includes am India for Amazon Walmart revenue does not include any India sales because Walmart owns a minority majority interest in Flipkart. [36:53] Um but that's that's really the way Amazon does business in India as well like if you're doing Apples to Apples I would argue that it's probably true that Walmart is still slightly bigger than Amazon of you if you put India back into these numbers and and do a gmv estimate for Walmart instead but I don't, even really care about that what's annoying is everyone that read the New York Times article then wrote a new article saying Amazon's the biggest retailer in the world and that's, wildly untrue because. Ali Baba's gmv is bigger is like 1.3 trillion right so its bigger than Walmart plus Amazon's estimate in these articles and that's why the New York Times had to write the most awkward headline ever that's like, outside of China even and you go well why are they saying outside of China when both Walmart and Amazon are competing in China well it's because they don't want to talk about the fact that they're both way smaller than Ali Baba. [37:51] And so so again like I just I kind of don't think this is a very big milestone I think Amazon spins more time and effort trying to sell more stuff in the US than anywhere else and Walmart spends more time and effort trying to sell in the US than anywhere else it's the whole market for both countries for companies it's highly likely that Amazon is going to pass Walmart for sales in the US in the near future I don't think they have yet and when they do that will be a big milestone that will be like when Walmart passed Sears Versailles in like 1990 but to me that's the big milestone that this, this kind of facts that data thing that New York Times is trying to spin and then you know everyone else misreported like to me it's. Not that interesting and so I'm kind of annoyed how much Buzz it's gotten but I just blew it and gave it a bunch more buzz on the podcast. Scot: [38:44] Okay another one Amazon this was kind of the big big topic today there was a leak or someone figured out that Amazon is going to open a department store. How do you feel about Amazon departments course I feel like they're going to have put Target out of business in six months. Jason: [39:09] I just sold all my Target stock it so it's over. I'm kidding yeah so I mean this is interesting news the. I would say it's very vague news at this point like I don't think it surprises anyone that Amazon is interested in and is probably moving forward with trying a bunch of different retail floor mats I do think Amazon realizes that. That brick-and-mortar is important I don't think they think of themselves as purely an online, retail and they've been investing a bunch of brick and mortar and a category they want to do better and is a parallel and they have been making a lot of progress in a parallel so it's not shocking that they would be trying to experiment with some apparel formats so so this news is kind of exciting I'd be eager to see what they what stores they do open and I'm aisle you know quickly go visit them when they do to see what see what they're trying but. From this article it's hard to know exactly what they're talking about so the the leases that the. The reporter found in this is an exclusive article from Wall Street Journal. The wheezes they found were for thirty thousand-square-foot stores so the first thing is again everyone saying like Amazon's getting into the department store business. There are almost no 30,000 square foot department stores most department stores are much bigger than 30,000 square feet. [40:33] Whatever it's worth the the article says that apparel is one of the categories that's likely in this new store from Anonymous sources that talk to them. So does that mean it's primarily an apparel store so that would make it like a Kohl's or T.J.Maxx eyes store and that could be interesting and meaningful or does it mean it's a general merchandise store that has some apparel and also has a full grocery store because there's a lot of 20,000 25,000 square foot grocery stores so 30,000 square feet. Isn't that much different than the the bigger store formats we've already seen Amazon starting to experiment with so I guess I'm just saying. Any brick-and-mortar news from Amazon is interesting I'll be super eager to follow it but there was nothing, to me and this announcement that goes man my mind's blown this is a major Game Changer or some some new industry that wasn't worried about Amazon last week should be super worried about them this week like I think all those Industries should have already been worried. Scot: [41:35] Yeah and a lot of people I saw coming and we're saying they're abandoning the bookstore this means the 4-star store doesn't work they're getting rid of just je wat technology the Amazon goes towards and I think people just kind of, Amazon. At the heart of their DNA is to experiment with stuff doesn't just because they're experimenting with something doesn't mean the other things failed they can run they have the resources to run 300 experiments retail store experiment simultaneously if they want to and that you can't really read that kind of stuff into them I think that's really jumping the gun. Jason: [42:12] No I would a hundred percent agree with that and again it's built right into their leadership principles like small autonomous teams right so it's not like it's one big entity and they can only do one thing at a time. They've got you know a ton of entities that are doing a ton of things at a time so I I certainly. Scot: [42:28] Purposely don't talk to each other because it was a slow not yeah. Jason: [42:31] Yeah absolutely. So excited to see them doing new things I do think when they open new store formats they tend to be more Innovative than than traditional retailers that are opening new format so I hope they open them and I will be there when they do. Scot: [42:48] And then while we were on the podcast Tesla announced they have a new robot swiped will have to you have to order one of those and then give us a gadget unboxing kind of walkthrough of how that goes. Jason: [43:02] I feel like you are higher on the Tesla waiting list than I am so we may have to leverage your status but I'm all for doing a robot Deep dive at our earliest convenience. Scot: [43:12] Yeah humanoid robots kind of freaked me out so I think I'll lose my status to send it to your hostel we'll see if it a skynet's you or not. Jason: [43:20] Yeah isn't is there another Terminator movie coming out I think there is. Scot: [43:23] There's always another Terminator movie coming out sometime. Jason: [43:26] Fair enough awesome we'll listen we set a goal for ourselves to do a shorter concise show and I said I think we can knock this out in 30 minutes so I totally blew that this feels like about 45 minutes but hopefully it was valuable to listeners if it was we sure would appreciate, five star review on iTunes if you have any questions or we got anything wrong in the show you want to talk about we would encourage you to hit us up on Twitter or Facebook. Scot: [43:57] Yeah I like to think we gave everyone 50% more for their money today so you're welcome. Jason: [44:03] Yeah and you and I earned fifty percent less what's 50% of zero awesome well until next time happy commercing!
We kick off this week's show with Bill Hahn of Jay's Sporting Goods. Bill has great advice on getting ready for hunting season by choosing the right gear. Then Tom Campbell of Woods-n-Waternews talks about the return of their big Outdoor Weekend.
@dr_duck and @thefowlhunter sit down this week with a gentleman they met at waterfowl weekend at Roger's Sporting Goods in Liberty, MO. Trent Dirks is a veteran, waterfowl hunter and staff member for Retrieving Freedom. Retrieving Freedom, Inc. is a 501(c)3 non-profit organization dedicated to training service dogs to help people, primarily training dogs to serve the needs of Veterans and children with Autism. To learn more, visit retrieving freedom.org
On this episode we are live at Rogers Sporting Goods Waterfowl Weekend. It was a great time seeing everyone and even had a couple of guests on with us. We hope you enjoy! 10% off Motion Ducks with the code OUTDOORLIMITS Special Deal:
After listening to this podcast there is a small chance that you no longer want to grow up to be an astronaut. On the bright side, an alien will not try to pull you into the sun. On this episode Kelly and Meagan discuss costume choices, the allure of drunk shopping, and of course dig deep into what the heck is going on with J-Squad. Apologies if you are from Ohio and feel misrepresented by this episode.Follow us on social: @Kellydoubleyou and @MeaganbiancoIntro and outro music: What's The Angle? by Shane Ivers - https://www.silvermansound.comFollow the podcast on Instagram and Twitter: @nathanforuspod
“This is a time when courage is required - leading with integrity, humility, clarity, and unity - and doing what's right.” Teri List is A 35-year finance veteran. She's currently a Board Director @ Microsoft, Double Verify, and Danaher Corp - a Life Sciences company. Teri's also the Former EVP & Chief Financial Officer for GAP, Inc - where she oversaw the finance, real estate and IT orgs. Teri held similar CFO roles at Dick's Sporting Goods, and Kraft Foods - after spending nearly 20 years @ P&G, ultimately advancing to SVP of Finance & Treasurer. But unlike many P&G Alumni Execs, Teri actually got her start @ Deloitte & Touche, where she spent 9+ years providing financial counsel to large multinationals. Teri received her bachelor's degree in accounting from Northern Michigan University and is a certified public accountant. In a candid conversation about courage - Teri shares how to think about not just how it relates to your career, but yourself. You'll enjoy hearing about Teri's passion for people - and how she's committed to helping diverse teams thrive, and how leaders need to be thinking not just about short-term wins, but long term decisions.
Amazon buys MGM Studios. Costco slips a bit despite strong earnings. Salesforce rises. And Dick’s Sporting Goods swings higher thanks to strength in its golf business. Motley Fool analysts Ron Gross and Jason Moser discuss those stories and weigh in on the latest from Okta, Ulta Beauty, Autodesk, and Williams-Sonoma. Plus, Ron and Jason share two stocks on their radar: Elastic and Toro. And Reuters automotive reporter Paul Lienert discusses Ford’s new electric F-150, Tesla, Apple, and the future of the auto industry. Looking for more stocks for your radar? Get 50% off our Stock Advisor service just by going to http://RadarStocks.fool.com.
Shares of Dick’s Sporting Goods hit an all-time after a monster 1st-quarter, as CEO Lauren Hobart continues to impress. Zscaler pops 15% after the cybersecurity company continues to invest in growth. Alicia Alfiere analyzes those stories, as well as the challenges and possibilities facing Nordstrom.