Podcast appearances and mentions of fannie freddie

Musk/Trump; Debt; Parade; Fannie & Freddie; Blasphemy Law; Dems | Yaron Brook Show

Keith discusses the mortgage landscape, emphasizing the benefits of cash-out refinances with Ridge Lending Group President, Caeli Ridge. They unpack the Trump administration's plan to privatize Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which could impact the mortgage market. Investors are discovering powerful strategies to leverage property equity and optimize their financial portfolios. By understanding innovative borrowing techniques, savvy real estate investors can access tax-efficient capital and create sustainable wealth-building opportunities. Consider working with a lender that specializes in investor-focused loan products and provides comprehensive education on the options available.  Resources: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Show Notes: GetRichEducation.com/554 For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com GRE Free Investment Coaching: GREinvestmentcoach.com Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments.  You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866 Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review”  For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Complete episode transcript:   Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai    Keith Weinhold  0:01   Welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, we're talking about the mortgage loan landscape in this era. Is title insurance a rip off today? Is it worth it for you to pay discount points at the closing table to get a lower interest rate? Learn about how a cash out refinance. Is your ability to borrow tax free, much like a billionaire does, and what are the dramatic changes that the current administration could take to alter the mortgage environment for years, all today on get rich education.    Speaker 1  0:34   Since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors, who delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show guests include top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki, get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast or visit get rich education.com   Corey Coates  1:20   You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.   Keith Weinhold  1:36   Welcome to GRE from Liverpool, England to Livermore, California and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you are listening to get rich education, the voice of real estate. Since 2014 it's been estimated that there are about 800 billionaires in USA, and hey, you might be one of them, but there's a pretty good chance that you aren't well. When it comes to lending and mortgages, you can actually take a page out of a billionaires playbook and do something very much like what they do whenever you perform a cash out refinance if you've got dead equity in a property, and you can borrow against your own home to a greater extent than you can against your rental properties, even either one of those is a tax free event, you've now got tax free cash, and you can use that money on anything from investing it in the stock market To using your proceeds for a down payment on more real estate or buying a boat or going to Disneyland, and you didn't have to relinquish your asset at all. You continue to hold on to the asset. Now, the mechanics are somewhat different, sure, but when you do a cash out refinance like this, it's a bit like billionaires borrowing against their stock. Instead, you're borrowing against the value of your real estate. In fact, listening to this short clip, it's Trevor Noah talking about how billionaires do exactly this, and you'll notice that the crowd laughs because it actually sounds funny that you can really do this,    Speaker 2  3:22   the shares that they hold in a company, because it is an unrealized gain, right? So they go like, yeah, you're worth 300 billion, but we can't tax you on those stocks because you haven't sold the shares, so you don't, like, have the money. And I understand the argument. They go like, No, you don't have it. It's just what it's worth, because it will also crash, and then you have nothing, so we can't tax you on it. Then I'm like, Okay, I understand that. Then Elon Musk offers to buy Twitter, all right? He offers to buy it. And then he says in his offer, he goes, I'm putting up my Tesla stock as collateral. Then I'm like, so you do have it? Then he's like, no, no, no, no, I don't have it. I don't have it. I'm just gonna say so then they accept the offer. He now buys Twitter. Now that they've accepted his offer, he now goes to private equity and banks and like other rich people and whatever. He goes like, can you guys borrow me the money to buy Twitter? And then he's like, I'm I want to buy Twitter because I don't want to sell any of my Tesla shares, so I want to use your money to buy Twitter. And then it's like, but then they're like, What are we loaning it against? And he's like, Well, my Tesla shares. Then I'm going, like, Wait, so, so you, you can, you can buy a thing based on what you have, yes, but when we want to tax you, you can say, I don't have it. Do you hear what I'm saying here?   Keith Weinhold  4:46   Yeah, you can borrow against your real estate if you have substantial equity in it. We'll talk about just how much now billionaires borrow against their stock holdings using financial products like portfolio lines of credit or. For securities based loans. These are the names for how they do it, essentially taking out loans and using their stock as collateral. And this allows them to access cash without selling their assets and without incurring capital gains taxes, much like you can so you can say that you don't want to sell your property in you don't have to go through some capital raising round either, like a billionaire might have to when they're borrowing against their stock. You can just have a more standard mortgage application for your cash out refinance, and you don't even have to have a huge portfolio. I mean, even if you just own one 500k property with 50% equity in it, you can do this so it's available to most any credit worthy person, again, tax free. But of course, this doesn't mean that you always should take this windfall, because it often creates a higher monthly payment. You've got to be the one that makes that decision in controlling your cash flows, that is key. I'll talk about that some more with today's terrific guests. Also the Trump administration's desire to privatize Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac we're going to talk about that and what that would do to the mortgage landscape. I am in the USA today, next week, I'll be bringing you the show from London, England for the first time, the following week, from Edinburgh, Scotland. Yes, the mobile GRE Studio will be in effect. I typically set it up myself, and I usually don't need the help of the hotel staff for an appropriate Sound Studio either. And then shortly after that, I will be in Anchorage, Alaska, where I'm competing in these fantastic mountain running races. And then by next month, that's where I hope to meet up with you in person for nine days of learning and fun, as I'll be in Miami as part of the faculty for the terrific real estate guys invest or summon at sea, where we're all going to disembark from Miami and go to St Thomas, St Martin and the Bahamas, and then after that great event, it is a long flight from Miami back to Anchorage again. And that's got to be one of the longer domestic flights, not just in the nation, but in the world, Miami to Anchorage, and then shortly after that, I will be in the Great Northeast early this summer, New York and Pennsylvania, including for my high school reunion. So I'll really be putting the miles on these next couple months. One interesting thing that I've noticed for next week's show, where I'll be joining you from London, is how much I'm paying per night at both my hotel in England and then later my hotel in Scotland. That's obviously a short term real estate transaction. These are some of the more expensive places in the world, really. So next week and then the week after, I just think you'll find it interesting. I'll tell you how much I'm spending per night in both London and then Edinburgh. And they're both prime locations, where the hotels are the center of London and then right on Edinburgh's Royal Mile. That is in future weeks as for today, let's talk about the mortgage landscape with this week's familiar and terrific guest.   I'd like to welcome in one of the more recurrent guests in our history, so she needs little introduction. She's the longtime president of the mortgage company that's created more financial freedom for real estate investors than any lender in the nation because they specialize in income property loans. It's where I get my own loans for my own rental properties. Ridge lending group. Hey, welcome back to GRE Caeli ridge.    Caeli Ridge  8:57   Thank you, Keith. You know I love being here with you and your listeners. I appreciate you having me.   Keith Weinhold  9:01   You've helped us for so long. For example, who can forget way back in episode 56 Yeah, that's a deep scroll back when Chaley broke down each line of a good faith estimate for us, that's basically a closing statement sheet. She told us exactly what we pay for at the closing table, line by line like origination fee, recording costs and title insurance so helpful. It's just the sort of transparency that you get over there. Buyers pay for title insurance at the closing table. It is title insurance a rip off. A few years ago, a lot of people speculated that title insurance would fade away because the property's ownership could be transparent and accessible to everybody on the blockchain, but we don't really see that happening. So tell us about title insurance, and really, are we getting value in what we pay for there at the closing table?   Caeli Ridge  9:54   Well, I think the first thing I would say is that it really isn't going to be an option as far as I. Know, as long as the individual is going to source institutional funding leverage use of other people's money, they're going to require the lender, aka Ridge lending, or whoever you're working with, they're going to require that title insurance that ensures their first lien position. Doing that title search, first and foremost, is going to make it clear that there isn't some cloud on title, that there isn't some mechanic lien that had been sitting out there for however many years it may have just been around. And those types of things never go away. So for a lending perspective, it's going to be real important that that title insurance is paid for and in place to protect their interests, things like judgments, tax liens, like I said, a mechanic's lien, those will automatically take a first lien position in front of a mortgage. So obviously we're not going to risk that and find ourselves in second lien position in the event of default and somebody else is getting paid before we are. So not really an option. Is it a rip off? I don't know enough about how often it's paid out, and not to speak to that, but I will tell you that it isn't a choice.   Keith Weinhold  11:07   Title Insurance, like Shaylee was talking about. It protects against fraud related to the property's ownership, someone else claiming rights to the property, and this title search that an insurer does it also, yeah, it looks for those liens and encumbrances, including unpaid taxes, maybe unpaid HOA dues, but yeah, mortgage lenders typically require title insurance, and if you the borrower, you might think that's annoying. Well, it does make sense, because the bank needs to protect their collateral. If a bank ever has to foreclose, they need to have access to you, the borrower, to be able to do that without any liens or ownership claims from somebody else. Caeli, how often do title insurance companies mess up or have to pay out a claim? Does that ever happen?   Caeli Ridge  11:50   I mean, if I have been involved in a circumstances where that was the case, it's been so many years ago, they're pretty fastidious. I don't know that I could recall a circumstance where something had happened and the title insurance was liable. They go through the paces, man, they've got to make sure that, and they're doing deep dives and searches across nationwide to make sure that there isn't any unnecessary issue that's been placed on title Not that I'm aware of. No.    Keith Weinhold  11:50   Are there any of those other items that we tend to see on a good faith estimate that have had any interesting trends or changes to them in the past few years?    Caeli Ridge  12:27   Yeah, I've got a good one, and this is actually timely credit reports. So over the last couple of years, something has been happening with credit reports where, you know, maybe three, four years ago, a credit report, let's say a joint credit report, a husband and wife went and applied that credit report might cost 25 bucks. Well, now it's in excess of 100 plus. Some of what we're going to be talking about today, it kind of gets into the wish list of Jim neighbors, who is the president of the mortgage brokers Association. He's been talking to the administration about some of his wishes, and credit report fees is actually one of the things that they're wanting to attack and bringing those costs down for the consumer. So when we look at a standard Closing Disclosure today, credit report costs have increased significantly. I don't have the percentages, but by a large margin over the last couple of years,    Keith Weinhold  13:21   typically not one of your bigger costs, but a little noteworthy. There one thing that people might opt and choose to have on their good faith estimates, so that borrower therefore would actually pay more out of pocket with today's higher mortgage rates. And I'm sure not to say high, because historically, they are not high. Do we see more people opting to pay discount points at the closing table to get a lower rate and talk to us about the trade offs there   Caeli Ridge  13:46   right now, first and foremost, that there isn't a lot of option for investment property transactions, whether it be a purchase or refinance. There's not going to be that option where the consumer gets to choose to say, Okay, I want to pay points for a lower rate or not pay points for a higher rate the not paying points is the key here. There isn't going to be a zero point option for investment property transactions. And this gets a little bit convoluted, and then I'll circle back and answer the question of, when does it make sense to pay the points, more points versus less points? We have been in a higher rate environment that I think a lot of people have become accustomed to as a result secondary markets, where mortgage backed securities are bought and sold, they keep very close tabs on the trends and where they think things are headed. Well, something called YSP, that stands for yield, spread, premium, under normal market circumstances, a consumer can say, okay, Caeli, I don't want to pay any points. Okay, I'll take this higher interest rate, and I don't want to pay any points, because that higher interest rate is going to have YSP, yield, spread, premium to pay compensation to a lender, and you know, the other third parties that may be involved in that mortgage backed security. But. Sold and traded, etc, okay? They have that choice under normal market circumstances. Not the case right now, because when this loan sells the servicing rights, whoever is going to pick up the servicing rights, so when Mr. Jones goes to make his mortgage payment, he's going to cut a check to Mr. Cooper. That's a big one, right? Or Rocket Mortgage, or Wells Fargo, whoever the servicer is, the servicing rights are purchased at a cost. They have to pay for the servicing rights, and let's say that's 1% of this bundle of mortgage backed securities that they're purchasing. Well, they know the math is, is that that servicer is going to take about 36 months before that upfront cost is now in the black or profitable. This all will land together. Everybody, I promise you stick with me, so knowing that we've got about a 36 month window before a servicer that picked up the rights to service this mortgage is going to be profitable in a higher rate environment, as interest rates start coming down, what happens to the mortgage that they paid for the rights to service 12 months ago, 18 months ago, that thing is probably going to refinance right prior to the 36 month anniversary of profitability. So that YSP seesaw there is not going to be available for especially a non owner occupied transaction. So said another way, zero point rates are not going to be valid on a non owner occupied transaction in a higher rate environment when secondary markets understand that the loans that are secured today will very likely be refinanced prior to profitability on the servicing side of that mortgage backed security that is a risk to the lender, yes. So we know that right now you're not going to find a zero point option. Now that may be kind of a blanket statement. If you were getting a 30% loan to value owner occupied mortgage with 800 credit scores, you know that's going to be a different animal. And of course, you're going to have the option to not pay points. The risk for that is nothing. Okay, y SP is going to be available for you, the consumer, to be able to choose points at a lower rate, no points higher rate. When does it make sense to pay additional points? Let's say to reduce an interest rate, the break even math. And you know, I'm always talking about the math, the break even math is actually the formula is very simple. All you need to do is figure out the cost of the points. Dollar amount of the points, let's say it's $1,000 and that's what it's going to cost you to, say, get an eighth or a quarter or whatever the denomination is, in the interest rate reduction. But you aren't worried about the interest rate necessarily. You're looking at the monthly payment difference. So it's going to cost you $1,000 in extra points, but it's only going to save you $30 a month in payment when you divide those two numbers, what's that going to take you 33 months? 30 well, okay, and does that make sense? Am I going to refinance in 33 months? If the answer is no, then sure pay the extra 1000 bucks. But that's the math, the cost versus the monthly payment difference divide that that gives you the number of months it takes to recapture cost versus cash flow or savings, and then you be the determining factor on when that makes sense.    Keith Weinhold  18:10   It's pretty simple math. Of course, you can also factor in some inflation over time, and if you would invest that $1,000 in a different vehicle, what pace would that grow at as well? So we've been talking about the pros and cons of buying down your mortgage rate with discount points before we get into the administration changes. Cheley talk about that math in is it worth it to refinance or not? It's a difficult decision for some people to refinance today with higher mortgage rates than we had just a few years ago, and at the same time, we've got a lot of dead equity that's locked up.   Caeli Ridge  18:40   I would start first by saying, Are we looking to harvest equity? Are we pulling cash out, or are we simply doing a rate and term refinance where we're replacing one loan with another loan, if it's for rate and term, if we're simply replacing the loan that we have today with a new loan, that math is going to be pretty simple. Why would you replace 6% interest rate with a 7% interest rate? If all other things were equal, you wouldn't unless there was a balloon feature, or maybe an adjustable rate mortgage or something of that nature involved there that you have to make the refinance. So taking that aside, focusing on a cash out refinance, and when does it make sense? So there's a little extra layered math here. The cash that you're harvesting, the equity that you're harvesting, first of all, borrowed funds are non taxable. What are we going to do with that pile of cash? Are we going to redeploy it for investing more often than not talking to investors? The answer is yes. What is that return going to look like? So you've got to factor that in as well, and then we'll get to the tax benefit in a moment. But generally speaking, I like to as long as the cash flow is still there, okay, you've got to have someone else covering that payment. Normally, there's exceptions to every rule. I don't normally advise going negative on a cash out refi. There are exceptions. Okay, please hear me. But otherwise, as long as the existing rents are covering and that thing is still being paid for by somebody else, then what you want to do is look at that monthly payment. Difference again, versus what you're getting out of it. And then you divide those two numbers pretty simply, and it'll take you how long. And then you've got a layer in the cash flow that you're going to get from the new acquisitions, and whether that be real estate or some other type of investment, whatever the return is, you're going to be using that to offset. And then finally, I would say, make sure that you're doing adding in the tax benefit. These are rental properties guys, right? So closing costs can be deducted now that may end up hurting debt to income ratio down the road. So don't forget, Ridge lending is going to be looking at your draft tax returns. Very, very important to ensure that we're setting you up for success and optimizing things like debt to income ratio on an annual basis.   Keith Weinhold  20:40   Now, some investors, or even primary residence owners might look at their first and only mortgage on a property, see that it's 4% and really not want to touch that. What is the environment and the appetite like today for having a refinance in the form of a second mortgage? That way you can keep your first mortgage in place and, say, 4% get a second mortgage at 7% or more. How does that look for both owner occupied and non owner occupied properties today?   Caeli Ridge  21:07   you're going to be looking at prime, plus, in many cases, if you don't want to mess with a first lien, a second lien mortgage is typically going to be tied to an index called prime. Those of you that are familiar with this have probably heard of that. Indicee. There's lots of them. The fed fund rate, by the way, is an index. There's lots of them. The Treasury is also another index. Prime is sitting, I think, at seven and a half percent. So you're probably going to be looking at rate wise, depending on occupancy and credit score and all of those llpas that we always talk about, loan level, price adjustment. You know, it could be prime plus zero, it could be prime plus four. So interest rates could range between, say, seven and a half, on average, up to 11 even 12% depending on those other variables. More often than not, those are going to be interest only. So make sure that you're doing that simple math there. And I would prefer if I'm giving advice the second liens, the he loan, which is closed ended, very much like your first mortgage, it's just in second lien position. It's amortized over a certain period of time, closed ended. Not as big a fan of that. If you can find the second liens, especially for non owner occupied, I would encourage it to be that open ended HELOC type.    Keith Weinhold  22:15   What are we looking at for combined loan to value ratios with second mortgages    Caeli Ridge  22:19   on an owner occupied I think you'd be happy to get 90. I think I've heard that in some cases, they can go up to 95% in my opinion, that would go as high as they'll let you go right on a non owner occupied, I think you'd be real lucky to find 80, and probably closer to 70.    Keith Weinhold  22:34   That really helps a lot with our planning. Well, the administration that came in this year has made some changes that can create some upheaval, some things to pay attention to in the mortgage market. We're going to talk about that when we come back. You're listening to get rich education. Our guest is Ridge lending Group President, Caeli Ridge I'm your host, Keith Weinhold.    The same place where I get my own mortgage loans is where you can get yours. Ridge lending group  NMLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than anyone because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. Start your prequel and even chat with President Chaeli Ridge personally while it's on your mind, start at Ridge lendinggroup.com. That's Ridge lendinggroup.com.    You know what's crazy? Your bank is getting rich off of you. The average savings account pays less than 1% it's like laughable. Meanwhile, if your money isn't making at least 4% you're losing to inflation. That's why I started putting my own money into the FFI liquidity fund. It's super simple. Your cash can pull in up to 8% returns, and it compounds. It's not some high risk gamble like digital or AI stock trading. It's pretty low risk because they've got a 10 plus year track record of paying investors on time in full every time. I mean, I wouldn't be talking about it if I wasn't invested myself. You can invest as little as 25k and you keep earning until you decide you want your money back. No weird lockups or anything like that. So if you're like me and tired of your liquid funds just sitting there doing nothing. Check it out. Text family to 66866, to learn about freedom. Family investments, liquidity fund again. Text family to 66866   Hal Elrod  24:38   this is Hal Elrod, author of The Miracle Morning and listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold, and don't put your Daydream.   Keith Weinhold  24:55   Welcome back to get rich education. We're talking about mortgages again, because this is one. Where leverage comes from. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, we're sitting down with the president of ridge lending group, Caeli Ridge, and I know that she has some knowledge and some updates on new administration leadership and some potential changes for the market there. What can you tell us? Caeli   Caeli Ridge  25:16   I'm pretty excited about this one, and I'm watching very diligently to see how it unfolds. So the new director of the FHFA Federal Housing Finance Agency, all is Bill Pulte. This is the grandson of Pulte Homes. Okay, smart guy. I'm excited to see what he's going to come in and do. Well. He had recently, I think in the last couple of weeks, he put out in the news wires asking for feedback from the powers that be, related to Fannie and Freddie, what improvements they would like to see. So first up was Jim neighbors. He is the president of the mortgage brokers Association. He had a few very specific wish list items, if you will. And the first one on his list was the elimination of LLP, as for non owner occupied and second home. So let me just kind of paint a picture here, because there's some backstory I think is important. So an LLPA, for those of you that have never heard that term before, stands for a loan level price adjustment. And a loan level price adjustment is a positive number or a negative number that associates with the individual loan characteristics. So things like loan to value or loan size, occupancy is a big ll PA, the difference between an owner occupied where you live and one that you're going to use as a rental property, that's a big one. Credit score, property type, is it a single family? Is it a two to four? Is this a purchase? Is it a refi? Anyway, all of those different characteristics are ll pas. Well, if we take a step back in time, gosh, about three years ago now, Mark Calabria, at the time, was the director of the FHFA, and he had imposed increases, specific increases. This was middle of 22 I want to say specific increases to the LL pas for non owner occupied property. So if anybody kind of remembers that time, we started to really see points and interest rates take that jump sometime in 2022 more than just the traditional interest rate market and the fluctuations. This was very material to investment property and second home, but we'll focus on the investment property. So Mr. Jim neighbors came in and said, first and foremost, I'd like to see those removed, and I want to read something to the listeners here, because I thought it was very interesting. This is something I've been kind of preaching from the the rooftops, if you will, for many, many years. Yeah, we've got neighbors sticking up for investors here. He really is. And I Yeah, well, yes, he is. And more often than not, they're focused on the owner occupied so I'm just going to kind of read. I've got my cheat sheet here. I want to make sure I get it all right for everybody. So removal of the loan level price adjustments on investment properties and second homes, he noted that these risk based fees charged by Fannie and Freddie discourage responsible buyers from purchasing second homes and investment properties, with that insignificant increase to cost. And here's the important part, originally introduced to account for additional credit risk, many of the pandemic era llpa increases were not based on updated risk metric. In fact, data has shown that loans secured by investment properties often have strong credit profiles and lower than expected default rates. I mean, anybody that has been around long enough to see what we've come from, like, 08,09, and when we had the calamity of right, the barrier for entry for us to get any conventional financing as investors has been harsh. I mean, I make that stupid joke of vials of blend DNA samples. But aside from it being an icebreaker, it kind of feels true. We really get the short end of the stick. And I feel like as investors especially, post 08,09, our credit profiles, our qualifications, the bar is so high for us, the default risk there has largely been removed. We've got so much skin in the game. With 20 25% down, credit score is much higher, debt to income ratios more scrutinized, etc, etc. So I think that this is, if it passes muster. I think this is going to be a real big win for the non owner occupied side of agency, Fannie, Mae, Freddie, Mac lending.   Keith Weinhold  29:13    The conventional wisdom is, is that if you the borrower, get into financial trouble, you're more likely to walk away from your rental properties than you are your own home and neighbors, sort of like a good neighbor here sticking up for us and stating that, hey, us, the investors, we're actually highly credit worthy people.   Caeli Ridge  29:29   Yeah, absolutely. So fingers crossed. Everybody say your prayers to the llpa and mortgage investor rates gods.   Keith Weinhold  29:37   we'll be attentive to that. What other sorts of changes do we have with the administration? For example, I know that Trump and some others in the administration have talked about privatizing the GSEs, those government sponsored enterprises, Fannie, Mae, Freddie Mac and what kind of disruption that would create for the industry. Is it really any credence to that?   Caeli Ridge  29:58   They've been talking about it for. For quite a while. I mean, as long as Trump has been kind of on the scene, that's been maybe a wish list for him. I don't see that happening over the next years. That is an absolute behemoth to unpack and make a reality. Speaking of Mark Calabria, he was really hot and heavy on the trails of doing that. So what this is, you guys so fatty Freddy, are in conservatorship that happened back post 08,09, and privatizing them and making them where it is not funded, or conservatorship within the United States government. Now it still has those guarantees against default. It's a very complicated, complex, nuanced dynamic of mortgage backed securities, but if we were to privatize them at some point now, am I saying that that's a bad thing? No, not necessarily, but I think it has to be very carefully executed, and because there are so many moving parts, I do not think that just one term of presidency is going to make that happen. If we do it, it's going to be years down the road from now. Is my crystal ball. I don't think we're going to see that anytime soon.    Keith Weinhold  30:58   That's interesting to know. Are there any other industry changes that are important, especially for investors, whether that has to do with the change in administration or anything else?   Caeli Ridge  31:08    Well, specific to that wish list from Mr. Neighbors, one of the other things that he had asked, and there were quite a few, for owner occupied changes as well, he wants to reduce the seasoning for cash out refinances of investment properties, which would be huge good. Yeah, right now it's 12 months on a cash out refinance given very specific acquisition details. Okay, I won't go down that rabbit hole, but currently, if you haven't met exactly these certain benchmarks, you may have to wait 12 months to pull cash out of a property from the day that you acquire it, he's asking that that be pulled back to about six months, which would be nice   Keith Weinhold  31:46   reducing the seasoning period from 12 months to six months, meaning that an investor a borrower, would only need to own that property for that shorter duration of time prior to performing a refinance.   Caeli Ridge  31:58    Cash out refinance, no seasoning required on a rate and term. This is specific for cash out. But again, for cash out, but exactly right   Keith Weinhold  32:04   now, one trend that I think about sometimes, especially when I think back to 2008 2009 days since I was an investor through that time, is, are there any signs in the reduction of the appetite or the propensity to lend, to make loans. So how freely is credit flowing?    Caeli Ridge  32:25   I think pretty freely. I'm not seeing that they're tightening the purse strings. That's not the lens that I'm looking at it from, and I try to keep that brush stroke broad. There have been, I think that on the post, close side, there's been a little extra from Fannie Freddie, and I think that has to do with profitability markers. But overall, I'm not seeing that products are disappearing necessarily, or that guidelines are really becoming even more cumbersome. If anything, I would say it's maybe the reverse of that, and I do believe that probably is part and parcel to this administration and the real estate background that comes with it.   Keith Weinhold  32:59   One other thing I pay attention to, but it just really hasn't been much of a story lately. Are delinquencies in foreclosures. It seems like they've ticked up a little bit, but they're still both really historically low and basically a delinquency being defined as when a borrower makes one late payment, and foreclosures being the more severe thing, typically a 120 days late or more. Any trends there? I'm not   Caeli Ridge  33:24   seeing any now. And in fact, I would tell you that, because we focus so much on investor needs, first payment default is I can count on less than one hand, if I had to, how many times I've seen that happen with our clients over 25 years. So nothing noteworthy there for me.    Keith Weinhold  33:40   Yes. I mean, today's borrowers are just flush with equity. Nationally, there's a loan to value ratio of 47% which is healthy, in a sense. On average, borrowers have a 53% equity position. Of course, the next thing, I think, is like, I don't really know if that's a smart strategy. They're not really getting that much leverage out there. But I think a lot of people just have the old mentality of get it paid off.    Caeli Ridge  34:06   And I think that depending on where you are in your journey, I mean, if you're in phase three, right, where you're just really looking at these investments, these nest eggs to carry you into your retirement and or for legacy reasons, fine, but otherwise, I may argue the point in that I don't care that you have a 3% interest rate on an investment property, or whatever it may be, if it's sitting there idle and as long as it can cash flow, the true chances of those individuals of keeping that mortgage that they got in 2020, 2021, etc, at those ridiculously low interest rates and stroking 360 payments later to pay it to zero is a fraction of a percent right now, whether they're on the sidelines for something else, I don't know, but that debt, equity, I think, is hurting them more than a 3% interest rate is helping them.   Keith Weinhold  34:52    And a lot of times, the mindset of someone is, if they don't need to build wealth anymore, and they're older and they already built wealth, they don't care if they're loaned to value. Was down to zero, and they have it paid off, whereas someone that's in the wealth building phase probably wants to get more leverage. Yeah, Chaley at risk lending group, there you see so many applications come in, and especially since you're an investor centric lender, I like to ask you what trends you're seeing. What are people buying? What are people doing? Are they refinancing? Are they paying loans off? Are they trying to take out more credit? Are there any overall trends with investors that you see in there    Caeli Ridge  35:29   right now? I think the all in one is a clear winner there. The all in one, that first lien, HELOC, that you and I talked about, we broke my little corner of the internet with that one, that one is a front runner for sure, on the refinance side, specifically, we are seeing quite a bit more on the refi side of things, that equity is kind of just sitting there. So even though, if the on one isn't a good fit for them, I'm seeing investors that are willing to tap into that equity instead of just sitting around and waiting for them to potentially lose some equity if the housing market does start to take some decline. And then I would say, on the purchase transaction side, something that's kind of piqued my interest is the pad split. I'm looking at that more often where, for those that are not familiar, you can probably speak more to this, Keith, they're buying single family resident properties, even two to four unit properties, and a per bedroom basis, turning those into rental properties. And they're looking to be quite profitable. So I've got my eyes on that too.   Keith Weinhold  36:23   before we ask how we can learn more about you and what you do in there at Ridge Kayle. Is there any last thing that you'd like to share? Maybe a question I did not think about asking you, but should have.    Caeli Ridge  36:35   I would like to share with your listeners that if they are not working with a lender that focuses on their education and has that diversity of loan product that we have, that they're probably in the wrong support group. You need to be working with a lender that has a nationwide footprint and that has diversity of loan product to cover whatever methodology of real estate investing that you're looking for, and really puts a fine touch on the education of your qualifications and your goals as they relate to underwriters guidelines   Keith Weinhold  37:10   what we're talking about, and I know this through my own experience in dealing with Ridge, since I use them for my own loans myself, is sometimes Ridge might inform You that, hey, you can go and do this and make this deal now, but that's going to mess up this bigger thing 12 months down the road, whereas if you talk with an everyday sort of owner occupant mortgage company, oh, they're just not going to talk like that, because owner occupants, they might only buy every seven years, or something like that. And investors are different, and you need to have that foresight and look ahead. Caeli, this has been great, a really informative conversation about the pulse of the market. Tell us what products that you offer in there.   Caeli Ridge  37:50   Our menu is very, very diverse. I would say what. It's probably easier to describe what we don't offer. We do not have bear lot loans or land loans. We're not offering those right now. We do not have second lien HELOCs currently. We suspended that two years ago. But otherwise, guys, we're going to have everything that you're going to need. So just very quickly, I'll rattle off Fannie Freddie, okay, those golden tickets that we talk about, we've got DSCR loans, bank statement loans, asset depletion loans, ground up construction, short term bridge loans for fix and flip or fix and hold. We have our All In One that's my favorite first lien. HELOC, we have commercial loan products for commercial property and residential on a cross collateralization basis. So very, very robust in the loan product space.   Keith Weinhold  38:33   Caeli Ridge, it's been valuable as always. And then Ridge lending group.com, or your phone number   Caeli Ridge  38:39   855-747-4343, 855-74-RIDGE, , and then to reach us an email, if that's your better mechanism to contact us info@ridgelendinggroup.com   Keith Weinhold  38:50   that's been valuable as always. Thanks so much for coming back onto the show.    Caeli Ridge  38:53   Appreciate it. Keith,   Keith Weinhold  39:00   Yeah, terrific information from Chaley. As always, if you're enamored of borrowing tax free, like a billionaire, against your real estate, they sure can help you out with that and determine whether that's right. It doesn't mean that you always should, but if you have investment ideas for debt equity, and you're attentive to cash flows, run the numbers with them and see if it's worthwhile. As far as new purchases, we all know that soured affordability has made it especially tough for first time homebuyers, and there's more data out there that shows that tenant durations are historically long, longer than they usually are. Tenants are staying in places longer because they have to. Investor purchases have stayed strong, though investors have been buying about the same proportion of single family homes and making them rentals that they have historically and Redfin tells us that. The value of properties that investors have purchased is up more than 6% year over year, so investors are still buying and that makes sense. We're in this era where there's more uncertainty than usual, there's higher stock volatility than usual, and more people are sort of asking themselves, where would I get a better return than on income property, and where would my return be more stable today than in income property as well? If you work with Ridge lending group for a time, you're probably going to understand why I personally use them for my own loans. You'll notice that they really understand what investors need. Thanks to Caeli Ridge today and thank you for being here too. But as always, you weren't here for me. You were here for you until next week. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.   Speaker 3  40:56   Nothing on this show should be considered specific personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC, exclusively.   Keith Weinhold  41:20   You know, whenever you want the best written real estate and finance info, oh, geez, today's experience limits your free articles access, and it's got paywalls and pop ups and push notifications and cookies disclaimers. It's not so great. So then it's vital to place nice, clean, free content into your hands that adds no hype value to your life. That's why this is the golden age of quality newsletters. And I write every word of ours myself. It's got a dash of humor, and it's to the point because even the word abbreviation is too long, my letter usually takes less than three minutes to read, and when you start the letter, you also get my one hour fast real estate video. Course, it's all completely free. It's called the Don't quit your Daydream letter. It wires your mind for wealth, and it couldn't be easier for you to get it right now. Just text. GRE to 66866, while it's on your mind, take a moment to do it right now. Text GRE to 66866   The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth, building, get rich education.com.    

Keith Weinhold and Caeli Ridge discuss the benefits of a type of loan that combines mortgage and banking features. This loan allows deposits to reduce principal first, every deposit acts like a payment, minimizing interest accrual. And can be used for cash-out refinancing, providing flexibility and potential tax benefits.  Hear about the importance and the difference between open-ended and closed-ended loans. If you pay down the loan balance over time, you can have a spread that allows you to access that equity without having to requalify or pay additional closing costs. Resources: Explore the loan simulator at RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Show Notes: GetRichEducation.com/542 For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com GRE Free Investment Coaching:GREmarketplace.com/Coach Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments.  You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866 Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review”  For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Complete episode transcript:   Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai    Keith Weinhold  0:01   Welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold a discussion about the future mortgage rate direction. Then there's a property loan type where you don't have to make any monthly payments, and if you do make a payment, it all goes toward principal, and nothing is lost to interest. It can save you lots in interest expense over the life of the loan today on get rich education.   since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads in 188 world nations. He has a list show guests include top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki. Get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast, or visit get rich education.com   Corey Coates  1:13   You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.   Keith Weinhold  1:29   Welcome to GRE from flaccid County, Oregon to Lackawanna County, Pennsylvania and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you are back in for another wealth building week here at get rich education, just another shaved mammal with the microphone here, I have a real estate analogy for you. Growing up, my dad told me, whatever you do, do it well. And that was broad guidance for life. I like things that are easy to remember. Our simple home in Appalachian Pennsylvania was headed with a wood fired stove, so we couldn't just turn a dial and feeding the stove with those logs took time and work. It was a family effort. Dad split the firewood. My chore was to regularly move firewood from the wood pile into the home, and then Mom or Dad would start the fire and constantly tend to it and get it up to the right temperature. But you know, when that fire finally roared, it felt like it could have heated five homes. And this is like buying an income producing rental property. You can't just point and click to make income reliably appear. It takes time, and even some of this admin type of work before you feel hot returned the spark that can ignite the fire means first putting your financial house in order. Those are things like getting pre approved for a mortgage loan, and then they're stacking the firewood, which means finding a deal, making an offer, booking a property inspection, scheduling an appraisal, perhaps signing a property management agreement if you're not self managing, and then, of course, placing a tenant. But see when that investment property fire roars after a year or two that can create enough returns for five retail investors, just like our roaring wood fire could have heated five homes, even though you're only one investor getting like 5x returns, and by now, you probably felt, after a year or two of owning it, the profitable warmth of the five ways you're paid that you know so well. Those five ways are leverage, appreciation, cash flow. Tenant made principal pay down a tax benefit basket and the quiet, whispering fire of inflation, profiting on your loan, but you can't get over leveraged, meaning that you can't make the payments, or else you burn the whole house down. This means embracing the right level of debt rather than avoiding debt altogether. So yeah, you know, if you want to be in the top 1% or maybe even top 5% Do you know what that means? It means being misunderstood by the masses. And when you do this right, it's not about getting rich quick, but it's about building wealth. For sure, feel the fire and whatever you do, do it well, just like my dad told me, and oh, by the way, today, my parents still live in that same. House, but they now just turn a dial for heat.    Well, you know, there's been a lot of real estate and financial news lately, just this constant feed of news. And I really need to tell you something about that. I am not a news reporter. If some news just broke an hour ago. A lot of times people are only overreacting to something like that. So here at GRE I infuse the news longer term into our content of the show, because some of it is just too big to ignore. But often let it settle down for a little while and filter out what it really means to you as an investor. I mean, being an educational platform rather than a news platform is what it's about. So I want to make sure you understand the relationships rather than just reporting the news. I mean, for example, what tariffs can do to home prices and rents and inflation. I mean, that really impacts you and your real estate long term. Rather than just doing something like reporting that the tariff on this nation that looked like it was going to be 25% is now only going to be 10% or something like that, that really doesn't affect you so much. So now that you know more about what to expect here, which are the stories that really affect you as an investor? The last inflation report did come in at a hot 3% that startled economists that it was that high. And what that does is that makes bond yields rise, because bond investors need a real return net of inflation, and in turn, that soon makes mortgage rates rise, and also it makes Jerome Powell be in no rush to cut his Fed funds rate after this hot inflation report, either. And here's another long term relationship that can help you learn the Fed's dual mandate is, what do you know? What it is, the two things I've mentioned it to you before, the Fed's dual mandate is maximum employment and stable prices. That right there is inherently volatile, because when employment is maximized, well then employers, they have to compete with higher wages in order to attract workers, and that makes prices go up, destabilizing the prices will stable. Prices is the second part of the dual mandate. So that's why it always seems like there's this lightning rod attention on Jay Powell in the Fed. It is because the dual mandate is inherently volatile. Now, you know what I think about predicting mortgage rates. I don't like to do it because it's an almost impossible task, like the myth of Sisyphus, that Greek myth about rolling a boulder up a hill wells, Fargo says mortgage rates will go down to just six and a half percent by the end of this year, so not much of a drop. And also by the end of next year, almost two years from now, they'll still be just six and a half percent. And other C rates rising from here. So there is broad consensus that there's zero reason to think that artificially low rates are going to return anytime in the near term, perhaps even in the intermediate term, coming up on a future episode of the show here and soon, how to use AI in real estate investing today, let's talk about mortgages and a special loan type.   Today, we are back with the national leader in providing Americans with income property loans. She runs the operation at Ridge lending group. She's been doing this 25 years she's an investor herself. It is their CEO and president, Caeli Ridge,   Caeli Ridge  9:06   Keith, thank you for having me.    Keith Weinhold  9:08   There does seem to be one US president. That makes a lot of news lately, but Caeli is still the most noteworthy mortgage type of President, I suppose. And just like GRE Ridge focuses on education and Caeli mortgage rates. It's the topic that everyone wants to talk about. I don't predict mortgage rates, but I know that you'll Talk That Talk a little. And previously, many expected Jerome Powell and the Fed to drop the rate four times this year, then two and now more and more expect zero rate cuts at all this year, even opening the door for rate increases if inflation persists. So tell us about the propensities of this year's mortgage rate direction.    Caeli Ridge  9:51   I think that I agree with a lot of the volume out there related to interest rates kind of stay in the course. I don't think we're going to see too much of a decline. There's. Certainly, Keith, we talk about this at nauseum. There's all kinds of things that could derail that statement that we can't prepare for, we couldn't predict for, but I think overall rates are going to stay steady. I think that whether you like them or you don't like them, the tariffs tend to come with an inflationary tone. And if that's the case, it's going to put Jerome and his buddies at the Fed in a tough position to do what they had hoped to do with the easing, the monetary easing. So I don't expect to see it, but I'm hopeful who knows. Who knows?    Keith Weinhold  10:29   Now, for you, the listener and viewer here, when you really want to know what moves rates around, Caeli talk to us about this persistently high spread, and what that means is that historic difference between mortgage rates and the yield on the 10 year treasury note.    Caeli Ridge  10:47   I feel like a lot of what that's going to attach itself to is the inflation, and then, more specifically, when we talk about llpas, and I think we've talked about this in the past, loan level price adjustments, mortgage backed securities secondary market, right? This is an investment that is bought and sold on the New York Stock Exchange, right? These are investments that carry value. And while the Treasury is usually the one that people will look at to predict where interest rates are going to go, I feel like in this higher rate environment, the secondary market understands that these mortgage backed securities are going to be paying off in advance of profitability. Now this gets a little bit complicated, but the easy way to explain it is is that if you secure a loan today at, say, seven and a half percent, if the anticipation is that interest rates over the next three years, maybe not in the next year, but two years, even three years, are going to decline. The mortgage that was closed today will likely pay off via a refinance. In that event, it's not reached the maturity date, such that when that initial mortgage backed security was purchased on the secondary market, it will have to pay off before the investor has been made whole or profitable. As a result, the margins it's called on in my world, it's called YSP, yield spread premium will not be met. So they're baking in certain levers, or they're hedging, as another way to say it, so that they're not left with those negative balances when these things do pay off when interest rates come down, because interest rates are not a straight line, they go up, they go down, they go east, they go west. So as a result, they're planning far in advance into the future. So I think that has a lot to do with it.    Keith Weinhold  12:33   Real Estate industries are shrinking, and it's all related to the fact that back in 2021 the number of existing homes sold peaked at almost 7 million, but last year, it was only about 4 million. That is a huge drawdown. The number of US Realtors is dropping since it peaked in 2023 and Caeli, from what I can see, the number of loan officers, even operating has dropped precipitously over the last four years, it's a reminder that the strong survive and in the mortgage industry, top service is what savvy borrowers need. You go with the people that consistently advise you to take your time and look at your long term strategy and make the correct decision, not always the one giving like 1/8 of a percent lower and an interest rate, so any lender can get you the next loan, and few are going to help you with your long term strategy. With this overall lower volume of transactions taking place, what are your thoughts about how it's impacted the mortgage and lending industries?    Caeli Ridge  13:37   It's such a good question. I'm glad that you asked it, and I really do think it speaks to the experts in the space consumers, our borrowers, as we call them, have to be, I believe, a little bit more discerning about who they want to align themselves with and who they want to work with as it relates to the interest rate. We've had this conversation off book. Ridge doesn't sell rate or cost. Now we're competitive, but we're never going to be the lowest possible lender out there. There's always going to be somebody that can undercut for an eighth, like you said, a quarter point, a few 100 bucks here and there. And we just don't get into that, our value adds far exceed an eighth of a point in rate, which, by the way, you probably can predict what I'm going to say next, if you're not doing the math, just as a sidebar listener, the difference in payment, and that's really where the focus should be. The difference in payment on an eighth or a quarter percent in interest rate on $100,000 is all of 5,7,8, bucks a month. Okay, so make sure you're doing the math, but the value adds that come with the education that we provide the 49 states, large footprint and the diversity of loan product, I think, far outweigh any eighth or few $100 difference when you're comparing side by side. I'm not saying that you don't want to get comparisons and you don't want to be a smart, informed consumer, but it really does matter that your lender understands known, owner occupied understands how to. Or take you from point A to point Z today and five and 10 years down the road.   Keith Weinhold  15:05   you've been a mortgage industry leader for a long time with this lower volume. Have you seen mortgage companies implode close shop?   Caeli Ridge  15:15   Absolutely, we have access to those data points and the number of loan officers just the individual in the doing the transaction, not including processors and underwriters and funders and doctors, but just the loan officers. I believe, in 2024 reduced by a margin of 53% gosh, yeah, that's a big number.   Keith Weinhold  15:35   Yes, this is really hit the industry substantially. Are there any other interesting industry trends in this environment where we have persistently higher rates, I make sure not to say high, because historically, mortgage rates are still not high. The long term average being seven and three quarter percent on the 30 year fixed rate mortgage Are there any other trends that this loss in activity has created?   Caeli Ridge  15:58   I feel like the informed investor is still finding ways to profit in real estate. They're finding diversity is key, which I'm a big proponent of as are you. That means single family residence to two to four units, cash flow versus appreciation, the short term rental, the long term rental, the midterm rental, making sure that they have a good, rounded portfolio is key. And there are some which I think we're going to be talking about today. There are some mortgage tools that I really feel like, for an informed investor, are allowing them to continue and propel further, even scale into the 25 and 26 years.   Keith Weinhold  16:36   What's happened to the volume of owner occupied transactions versus investor transactions. I would imagine that investor mortgage transactions really aren't down that much.   Caeli Ridge  16:47   not that much. I'd say there was a small blip, but I feel like we've made those up with some of the burr strategy loans we do, of course, all kinds of mortgage related transactions specifically for investors. And one of those products is a short term bridge loan, which would apply to the BRRRR method by rehab, rent and refinance. So we've been seeing quite a bit of that, where the investor will find a good deal on market or off market, where they can put a little bit of lipstick on it and then refinance it at the ARV or after repair value. So anything that we might have lost in just a traditional 30 year fixed straight purchase transactions, I feel like we made up in the other but it wasn't a big margin.   Keith Weinhold  17:26   What if there was a mortgage product out there that just didn't work like other mortgage loan products do? For example, your deposits or the payments that you make on this special type of mortgage is applied to the principal first and only. There are a lot of other interesting characteristics about this particular mortgage product. We're going to discuss that when we come back. You're listening to get rich education. We've got the CEO and President of ridge lending group back with us, an investor centric lender. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold.   You know what's crazy? Your bank is getting rich off of you. The average savings account pays less than 1% it's like laughable. Meanwhile, if your money isn't making at least 4% you're losing to inflation. That's why I started putting my own money into the FFI liquidity fund. It's super simple. Your cash can pull in up to 8% returns, and it compounds. It's not some high risk gamble like digital or AI stock trading. It's pretty low risk because they've got a 10 plus year track record of paying investors on time in full every time. I mean, I wouldn't be talking about it if I wasn't invested myself. You can invest as little as 25k and you keep earning until you decide you want your money back, no weird lock ups or anything like that. So if you're like me and tired of your liquid funds just sitting there doing nothing, check it out. Text FAMILY to66866, to learn about freedom, family investments, liquidity fund, again. Text FAMILY to 66866   hey, you can get your mortgage loans at the same place where I get mine at Ridge lending group NMLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than any provider in the entire nation, because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. You can start your pre qualification and chat with President Caeli Ridge personally. Start Now while it's on your mind @ridgelendinggroup.com that's Ridge lendinggroup.com   Rick Sharga  19:48   this is Rich charga, housing market intelligence analyst. Listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold, and don't quit your Daydream.   Keith Weinhold  20:06   Welcome back to get rich education. We're talking with a steady guest over time, because not only are they an income property centric mortgage loan company that do mortgage loans in 49 of the 50 states, but they're also centered on education and looking out for you, the investor, over the long term. And cheyley, such an interesting product that you offer is called the all in one loan. It's been a long time since you and I have really talked about this. What it is is a first lien HELOC. It's a way for you to use the equity in your existing properties. You can do it with either a primary residence or investment properties. There are just so many reasons why an all in one load just kicks the butt on a conventionally amortizing loan, including that all payments are applied to principal first and only, and a lot of other exciting things. So Caeli, why don't we back up and just describe what the all in one loan is big picture.   Caeli Ridge  21:05   Now there is a lot to unpack, so we're going to take our time. Listener. First of all, let me just explain. Why is it called the all in one it's called that because it doubles as both a mortgage in the form of an open ended revolving HELOC and checking and savings. Both of those two features are combined, hence the all in one as a way of diminishing the amount of interest that can accrue over time. Let me explain so any revolving account, any account, including a credit card, for example, but first lien HELOC, second lien HELOC, whichever doesn't matter, open ended revolving is the key. Any open ended, revolving account will accrue interest daily based on two factors, the first being that day's balance and that months, in this case, interest rate, fully indexed interest rate. I'll come to interest rate later. As a result, you now have control largely over how much interest can accrue. Now let's take that statement and transfer it and look at it against an amortized, closed ended mortgage. You sign up for a 30 year fixed mortgage today. Let's say it's 7% whatever the interest rate is, is really irrelevant. Your principal and interest payment are defined on day one. There is no changing that monthly payment. Now you could certainly accelerate the payoff of that mortgage debt by doing what applying additional extra principal payments, right? But what happens to that extra principal payment when you send it off with your 30 year fixed mortgage payment,   Keith Weinhold  22:34   it drops your loan balance, but your minimum payment amount is the exact same the next month,   Caeli Ridge  22:38   right? And then what happens to all that liquidity that you had prior, it's now illiquid. Right? Exactly that off   Keith Weinhold  22:45   you've just transferred your cash flow into equity. Financial freedom is created by doing the opposite thing and changing equity into cash flow,   Caeli Ridge  22:52   very illiquid, and not the way an investor typically is going to want to run his or her business. So hence the all in one. Now for those of you that have heard the term velocity banking or infinity banking, maybe whole life insurance policy has a similar tone to this. The all in one, I believe, offers even more flexibility for variety of reasons that we're going to get into. But if you've ever heard those terms, that's similar to what this is. So I want to start by I usually like to give an example, okay, and provide some visual aid so that people can connect the dots. Let's start with the 30 year or a fixed rate mortgage. Just because I feel like, especially in the US, this particular loan product, or its concept is widely used in much of the rest of the world, in the US, I feel like we're sort of preconditioned here to really only understand that closed ended, amortized mortgage. So I'm going to start with an example there that actually highlights or leads into the concept of the all in one. So I want you to imagine a 30 year fixed mortgage and a 15 year fixed mortgage. Both of these mortgages originated or started at $400,000 as the balance on day one. The 30 year fixed mortgage locked at an interest rate of 4% and the 15 year fixed mortgage locked at an interest rate of 7% now, when I go through this exercise and I give this example to people, I ask them the question, Well, which one would you choose? And without exception, if they don't understand amortization, they are going to select that 4% 30 year fixed mortgage, because they don't understand that it's about speed. When you run the math and you look at an actual amortization table, you'll see that you'll pay $40,000 more in interest on a 4% 30 year or 360 month, versus a 7% 15 year or 180 month. So the point here, and what I'm illustrating, is it's speed. Now let's segue back over to the all in one. It's all about speed and how much interest we allow to accrue over time. So as you had mentioned, to start the kick this off, Keith, every deposit acts like a payment. Now here's where I struggled with this in learning. And when this was first introduced to me years ago, this part of it really caught me off guard. I had to really dig in and try to focus on what are they talking about? What do they mean? There's no payment due on the all in one. I'm gonna say that again. There's no payment due on the all in one. Think about your 30 year fixed mortgage. If you don't make a payment, what happens?   Keith Weinhold  25:19   You're defaulting, you're in trouble. You become delinquent,   Caeli Ridge  25:23   right? So that is not how this loan is set up. And it's not smoke and mirrors, okay? It's nothing fancy. The deposits that you make from ordinary income from all sources really Okay, so we want to talk about this is really special for investors, because we have access to gross rents, the rental income that's coming in before we send it back out the door, along with our net wages and every other source of income, deposits that we're getting can be utilized to your advantage. One of the ways in which I describe this is, I like to say you've become your own bank, so you have this line of credit, and your gross rents and all of your net wages are going to deposit into your checking account, driving that principal balance down, dollar for dollar, so that the interest accrual is diminished. Because remember what I said a few seconds ago, the interest is calculated on any open ended revolving account based on two factors, the balance for the day and the interest rate, so the more you have in depository income, and you drop it into your checking account, the longer it stays there, the lower the amount of interest is going to accrue within a 30 day billing cycle. Now let me just paint one more picture, and then we can open up to what questions come from this. So I want you to imagine this is I'm going to use easy, round math. I want you to imagine that you have an unpaid principal balance on your mortgage, on your HELOC of $100,000 just for round easy mouth, and that you bring in $10,000 a month in income from all sources. And just to keep it simple, we're going to say that that 10,000 comes in on day one of month one. Okay, so here's our 100 grand sitting there. My $10,000 is deposited into my checking account. Now my balance is $90,000 right? That 10 grand is not going to be touched. You will not touch that $10,000 for 29 days out of a 30 day billing cycle. And I'm giving you optimal tricks. Okay, this is how you want to use it optimally, yeah. Day one, instead of paying interest on $100,000 you're paying interest on paying interest on $90,000 and you're going to pay interest only on $90,000 for 29 days out of a 30 day billing cycle. Well, how am I going to make all my bills? And how am I going to eat? And how am I going to pay my cell phone? And what am I going to do? You're going to use a credit card, or credit cards of your choice, the ones that provide the best points, or whichever you prefer doesn't really matter. To pay all those monthly living expenses now we don't want to pay any interest on our credit cards. Right? 18, 28% whatever it is. No thank you. So now we're going to go to day 30 of that 30 day billing cycle. Right? 29 days that 10 grand has sat in there. Our balance has been 90. Our interest has accrued on that 90. On day 30, the credit card has amassed $9,000 in expenses. You've spent $9,000 for the month on food, gas utilities, car payments, cell phone, everything goes on that card. Day 30, you go into your checking account where your 10 grand has been sitting, and you write a check to pay off the credit card $9,000 so for one day of the month, we went from 90,000 in a balance to 99,000 right. 9000 had to come out of the 10 to pay off the credit card. We had $1,000 left over. Now I want you to fast forward into month to day one our starting balance, because that $1,000 leftover was our residual income, our discretionary our savings, it's what was not spent, but I have full access to it. Should I need it? So day one, month two 99, 000 is my outstanding balance. I drop in my $10,000 of income. 89,000 is what I'm going to be paying interest on for 29 days of a 30 day billing cycle. So this should allow listeners to connect some dots. There are two components of compound interest savings, the first being daily. We've got our income dropping in there. It's just sitting so daily savings, compound interest savings. And then that leftover savings, that residual, that $1,000 is going to be left in there month after month 24/7, access. That's monthly compound interest savings. So those are the two components that make this product profoundly impactful in diminishing that interest accrual over time. Why don't I take a pause   Keith Weinhold  29:30   so with the all in one loan, we're really integrating our consumer accounts with our mortgage. Absolutely right? Is there a way to automate these payments associated with this?   Caeli Ridge  29:43   Yes, I'm glad you asked. So everything that you have become accustomed to today in your checking and savings is going to be exactly the same with the all in one this mortgage is housed by an FDIC insured banking institution. It'll be one of two places depending on which. Which ends up picking up the rights. It'll be North Point or merchants, bank, those are the two that service this loan. Feel free to check them out when you think about the automation of your checking and savings accounts with your B of A, Chase, Wells, Fargo, whomever, credit union, whomever you bank with. Now there will be no difference to that experience and this experience so online bill pay, debit cards, routing numbers, paper checks. Should you still use those mobile apps? If you get a paper check, you take a picture and it uploads to the account. All the same exact automation as you have become used to today will apply with the all in one   Keith Weinhold  30:36   and you described how the all in one loan is an open ended loan versus your plain vanilla 30 or fixed amortizing loan, which is closed ended. For those that don't know, what do those terms open ended and close ended mean?   Caeli Ridge  30:48   So amortized is predetermined over the period of time that you've gotten the mortgage for. So whether it be a 10 year, a 20 year, 2515, 30, whatever it is, it is closed ended, so the interest rate that you secured against the loan amount that you've taken, they have come up with the formula, the calculation that says, This is how much interest you're going to pay over this length of time. And the longer the amount of time that you have selected, let's say a 30 or maybe even a 40 year. Those do exist, in some cases, the longer the amount of time that closed ended amortized mortgages in play, the more interest you're going to pay. Now, it keeps your payment lower for sure, but they're going to make it up in the interest that you'll pay in the long time. Now the open ended revolving just means that it is available to pay down and draw up, and pay down and draw up. It is not closed   Keith Weinhold  31:40   and then with those conventional mortgages, typically, especially when you originate a new loan for years, most of your payment goes to interest, which would not be the case with the all in one loan.    Caeli Ridge  31:53   Exa  ctly. Yeah. So anybody that's looked at an amortization table knows the first 10 ish years, we'll just keep using the most common, 30 year fixed first 10 years or so, maybe even a few years past that, 90% of your payment is going to go to the interest. You won't start chunking down any principal until the back end of that mortgage, 180 or complete flip to the all in one every dollar that goes in there drives the principal down first.   Keith Weinhold  32:18   That is huge, even if you pay a higher interest rate on your all in one loan, you can see how you have fewer dollars out of pocket in interest paid, which is what really matters to you,   Caeli Ridge  32:30   exactly, right? So think about a 20% interest rate. If you're paying 20% interest on 50,000 then 7% interest on 500,000 you can see how the math will work in your favor, regardless of the number in the interest rate in comparing side to side. And one of the other things that we haven't touched on, and maybe this is a good segue, Keith, it's not just the daily deposits. We have clients that take out a, you know, a million dollar line of credit, but they have $500,000 sitting idle for whatever it is their business needs. And in the E commerce. It doesn't even matter, but they have this amount of cash that they're simply going to take from this vehicle a regular checking account over here, and drop it in here, and that interest is saved. That $500,000 that was sitting idle doing nothing over here is now saving interest at an incredible rate. So it's not just the daily and monthly deposits. If you just have idle cash, or you know you're going to be getting a bonus or a tax refund, or whatever it is, those monies that would otherwise just sit in a one to 2% maybe interest bearing checking savings account can now be applied over here, driving down that balance further, dollar for dollar saving in that interest.   Keith Weinhold  33:39   So we are opportunistic investors here, when we see an accumulation of equity in a property or cash in an account, we want to get that moving with this all in one loan again, which is like a first lien HELOC, I would imagine that would we get plenty of room to borrow more in there, and there's been plenty of pay down, we might want to draw against it again for another purchase, and let this thing be flexible like an accordion back and forth as you're drawing the balance down and you're extending it out again. So really, the way I see the flexibility with the all in one loan is that you don't have to go through another mortgage loan origination each time you want to buy a property. You can just draw against this account.   Caeli Ridge  34:20   And we're still just scratching the surface in what this thing does exactly right? And I've said this twice now, you've become your own bank. Yeah, okay, if you pay it down over a short period of time, let's say that you had half a million dollars and you were able to reduce that down to 300,000 there's a $200,000 spread there that, at your discretion, do not have to re pre qualify and pay closing costs. Again, you don't have to ask permission or get it approved, for some reason, those are your funds, your equity, your dollars to do what you want, when you want, how you want. The other thing too is probably a good place to point this out, safety net, as long as there is a spread between what you owe and the credit limit. Whatever that is. If something were to happen That was unfortunate, some unfortunate set of circumstance befell the family, whatever, and no income was coming into the household zero. What would happen if you didn't have money to make your 30 year fixed mortgage payment? You're going to ruin your credit and go into default. Well, the reverse is true with the all in one if there is a spread between the balance and the limit and you needed to not make any deposits, the only thing that's going to happen in that case is interest is going to accrue on top of that balance. The only time a payment deposit is mandated with the all in one is when the balance is about to exceed the limit. That's the only time. Now I'm not saying that that's the way people are going to use it, but that's the reality of it. So what if this? Let's take this down the rabbit hole for a second. If you couldn't make a deposit, you're not going to go into default, right? You're simply going to add some interest on top of the existing balance. But what if you needed to draw from it for living expenses for a couple of months? Yeah? What if you needed, you know, $5,000 a month for three months until you got back on your feet, whatever it is you have access to do that. There's your safety net. You just simply draw from it, as long as there's a spread between the balance and the limit, those are your funds to do with what you choose    Keith Weinhold  36:13   if one takes out a HELOC, whether that's in an all in one loan form or not, something that I've advocated with my listeners for years is that now you do have this line that you can draw against to your point Haley, it's effectively another layer of insurance for that borrower or investor. So if you're interested in keeping down your insurance premium, you can get a HELOC or an all in one loan increase your insurance deductible, which can lower your insurance premium and increase your cash flow.   Caeli Ridge  36:43   Good point. You know, I hadn't even thought about that before. That is a new one on me that is actually brilliant. Yes.   Keith Weinhold  36:50   now we had a listener quite a while ago, Mark from Granite Bay, California, right in Mark's a great long time listener. When he found our show, he wanted to go back and re listen to all the old episodes. And he listens to several episodes multiple times. And Mark wrote in because he heard you on the show quite a while ago. And Mark says, I've been using the all in one loans, amazing mortgage balance deduction. But as a GRE listener, I know I can't be lured in by that alone. I also need to utilize its leverage. I just used my all in one loan Mark continues to say, probably, like a lot of others, to buy a duplex for mid south home buyers in all cash and then refinance that loan into a fanniefreda 30 year from my all in one loan simulations, and Caeli has an all in one loan simulation on her website that she'll tell you about. But to finish Mark's question, Mark says, I have gathered in these simulations that as long as properties are cash flowing, the best use of the all in one seems to be to keep repeating what we did on our first duplex purchase, use the all in one loan, to buy properties in all cash, and then later refi it into better debt or leverage, and then continue to repeat the process. Is that a valid way to use it? That's Mark's question.   Caeli Ridge  38:03   Absolutely. Mark, Well done, sir. And there's a few points here that I want to take a minute and peel back, Keith, so one of the first things that I would say that's really great about that philosophy or that strategy is going to be that on a cash out refinance of the property that was paid cash, using the all in one we get to use the appraised value. So under the circumstances, if you paid $100,000 for it, and perhaps it valued at 110, 151, 20, whatever it is, then we as the lender are going to refinance on a cash out refinance using that higher appraised value, so you have a little bit more leverage there, and potentially get more in that loan to value when you're comparing what you're getting back versus what you put in. The other thing, obviously, is that when you're dealing with a turnkey or a seller, an agent, whatever, everybody knows that when you can come to the table with cash, yeah, right, you become the more desirable buyer. There's that obvious piece, and then in terms of that strategy and that simulation. So please, yes, that is absolutely the first thing that I'm going to do with anybody that calls in is I'm going to get on the phone with them, a teams call, and we're going to do the simulator together. But I encourage everybody to get in there and play around with it. If you're not quite sure what data points it's asking for, let us know, or we'll do one together. But that simulator is going to allow you to compare the all in one to either an existing mortgage on a primary rental property or a new traditional mortgage. Let's say you're thinking about buying an investment property with a 30 year fixed and you want to compare that to the all in one, or maybe you want to refinance one of your existing properties, so you can compare it to existing versus new. And then within that simulation, it will allow you to forecast additional spending. That will allow you to say, I want to take out $50,000 in month 22 and it'll reformulate where the simulation of saved interest, payoff time, all of those things will be available to you within that simulator. It's very slick.    Keith Weinhold  40:00    And now that you, the investor, have the ability to pay all cash, not only can you close faster, but a lot of times, sellers are willing to give you a discount, since you can close faster and pay all cash, and then it's up to you down the road to go ahead and refinance that into a conventional product, or however else you want to do it. Caeli, what else should we know about the all in one loan?   Caeli Ridge  40:24    Couple things I would share. First of all, the qualification metric for the all in one is going to be a little bit more restrictive than a traditional 30 year fixed mortgage, so be prepared for a little extra brain damage. I know that getting qualified for mortgages is not everybody's favorite activity. I get it. There's a lot that goes on to it. It's not like the good old days where some remember you could fog a mirror and get a mortgage, but the all in one does take it to another level, even beyond what you're used to now. So debt to income ratio, I'll give you the specifics really quickly, so just be prepared. I like to set that expectation. Debt to income ratio caps at 43% on the all in one versus 50% that we would have from a traditional Fannie Freddie, 30 year fixed. The reserve requirement is calculated based on the line limit. It's dependent on the debt to income ratio. I'll just leave it there. It'll either be 10% or 15% of the line limit. So if the limit was 100 grand, 10,000 or 15,000 is the reserve requirement, and then the minimum credit score requirement. Owner Occupied is 700 non owner occupied is 720 so a little bit higher on the bar for qualification for the all in one.   Keith Weinhold  41:33   Who is this for? And who is it not for?   Caeli Ridge  41:36   It is for anyone generally that has at least 10% discretionary income at the end of the month. Typically, everybody's circumstances are different. I encourage you to play with the simulator. Get on my schedule. Let's do it together. But more often than not, we find that 10% left over at the end of the month is generally enough for it to work for the individual, and for those of you that got 2% interest rates during the pandemic, I just want you to know that I'm running the simulator against those loans day in and day out. And I would say, I'll give you a 65% of the time the all in one is beaten the, you know, what, out of a two and a half percent 30 year fixed mortgage   Keith Weinhold  42:12   that is really interesting. Well, there's a lot of opportunity and flexibility with the all in one loan. Is there any last thing that we should know about it.   Caeli Ridge  42:22   Start doing your due diligence. This does take a minute to unpack. Don't get overwhelmed by all the information. We've talked about some real tangible stuff here, but there's quite a bit that there would be to uncover. So take your time. Call us. We'll walk through it step by step   Keith Weinhold  42:36   and get started on that simulator and really see what it can do for you to make that actionable. Caeli, Where should one start?   Caeli Ridge  42:44   Head to our website, ridgelendinggroup.com you can email us info@ridgelendinggroup.com and obviously we're always a phone call away at 855, 74, Ridge   Keith Weinhold  42:54   and again, you can find that all in one loan simulator, where you can plug in some real numbers and see how it can benefit you. A friendly representative from Ridge can help you. Go ahead and do that there. So there's a lot of excitement about the all in one loan, especially, or an investor that has a GRE mindset philosophy and thinks about the opportunity of dead equity. But now that we've talked about that, tell us just quickly about some of the other products that you offer in there at ridge.   Caeli Ridge  43:23    So I think one of the real value adds for us is that we're not a one size fits all. We have an extremely diverse menu, as I like to call it, of loan programs. The all in one is at the top of a short list of my favorites. For some individuals, you got the fanniefriddies. You've got non QM, which includes DSCR, debt service, coverage ratio, bank statement loans, asset depletion loans. We have ground up construction for those that are interested in that. We have our short term bridge loans that I talked briefly about, where if you need fix and flip fix and hold, potentially, you need shorter term money, commercial loans for commercial products, commercial loans for residential in a cross collateralization way, if that is to your advantage. So as you can see, it's quite diverse.    Keith Weinhold  44:03   It's been valuable as always, and I definitely learned a few extra things that I did not know about the all in one loan myself. JAYLEE Reyes, it's been great having you back on the show, Keith. Thank you.   Now a mortgage company, of course, they have overhead and employees that they have to pay and so on. And you know, from talking with Chaley some more, I learned that they don't even make much profit from all in one loans. We wanted to discuss it together today for your benefit. However, though there are some real fees with the all in one loan, you pay points of three to 4% of the draw in closing costs only, but it's a one time fee, not every time you draw against it. She also let me know that it does not make your taxes substantially. More complicated, if you think that it can help you clear a few minutes, learn more and get hooked up with that all in one loan simulator, where they will help you through it. Big thanks to Caeli Ridge today, they really make themselves available. You can just call 855, 74, Ridge. Or if it's more your style, visit them at Ridge lending group.com Until next week, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.   Speaker 1  45:31   Nothing on this show should be considered specific personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC, exclusively.   Keith Weinhold  45:59   The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth, building, getricheducation.com.    

In this show we discuss:-Fannie & Freddie Soar 400% as Privatization Heats Up ft. Matt Bates-Using ChatGPT in Real Estate? ft. Melissa D'Ellena-RIBlogger's Top 5 Mid To End of February 2025 Events Coming Up In Rhode Island!

If you've already bought your first investment property, you may recall the initial fear you had about managing it. And that was just one property. But many investors find out it's not that tricky, and quickly scale up once they've completed their first deal. It can become addicting to feel the success of multiple deals that help you create financial independence. We're reposting an amazing and inspiring interview from someone who has done just that! Elaine Stageberg met her Fannie/Freddie 10-loan limit but figured out how to get financing for many more properties. She now owns more than 200 single-family rentals with her husband Nick, and other properties as joint ventures or within privately equity funds. Find out how she did it in this interview! And when you're done hearing about Elaine's success, check out our new audio book “Scaling Smart: How to Design a Self-Managing Business.” We share several success stories, including Elaine's, that can help you grow your own business. My husband Rich and I co-authored the book based on our more than 20 years of experience building our real estate investing company RealWealth. Elaine is a psychiatrist, a mother of four, and the owner of a private equity firm. She reached financial freedom at age 30, and currently manages a portfolio of over one-thousand doors worth more than $300 million. She lives in Rochester, Minnesota, with her husband and four young children. Please remember to subscribe to this podcast and leave a review! Thanks for listening! Kathy ~~~~ OUR GUEST

President of the Mises Institute and author of “How Capitalism Saved America”, Dr. Thomas DiLorenzo joins us to uncover the current state of capitalism and if it still exists in America. Earlier in the episode, Keith discusses the inaccuracy of economic predictions, citing examples like the 2023 recession that never happened, the negative impact of misinformed predictions on investment decisions and business growth.  Persistent housing price crash predictions have been consistently wrong despite global pandemics and higher mortgage rates. Dr. DiLorenzo advocates for #EndTheFed to reduce inflation and restore free market principles. Learn how voluntary exchange between buyer and seller through market prices communicates information and influences production. Resources: Learn more about Austrian economics and Ludwig von Mises through visiting mises.org  Show Notes: GetRichEducation.com/521 For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments.  You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866 For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review”  GRE Free Investment Coaching: GREmarketplace.com/Coach Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Complete episode transcript:   Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai     Keith Weinhold  00:00 Keith, welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, reviewing some terrible economic predictions and why it matters to you. Then the President of the Mises Institute joins us. Does capitalism still exist in the US and what would happen if we ended the Fed, today on get rich education.   00:24 Since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors, who delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show. Guess who? Top Selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki, get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast, or visit getricheducation.com   Corey Coates  01:09 You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.   Keith Weinhold  01:25 welcome to GRE from Syracuse, Sicily to Syracuse, New York, and across 188 nations worldwide, you're listening to one of the longest running and most listened to shows on real estate investing. This is Get Rich Education. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold, now a lot of media companies and pundits and influencers like to make predictions. Listeners like learning about predictions and by engaging just a little of that each of the past few years on one of the last episodes of the year. Here, I forecast the national home price appreciation rate for the following year, many media outlets, pundits and influencers have made terrible, just absolutely terrible, predictions about interest rates and other financial forecasts. Last year, a majority of Pro prognosticators firmly forecast six or eight Fed rate cuts this year, for example, well, we're going to have far fewer, and that's because high inflation kept hanging around. Then there's the 2023 recession that never happened, yet both Bloomberg and the economist actually published some rather ignominious headlines, as it turned out, they published these in the fall of 2022 Bloomberg, big headline was forecast for us, recession within year hits 100% in blow to Biden, well, That was false. That didn't come true. I mean, 100% that doesn't leave you any room for an out. And then also published in the fall of 2022 The Economist ran this headline why a global recession is inevitable in 2023 All right, well, they both believed in a recession, and they believed in it so deeply that it got fossilized. Well, an economic archeologist like me dug it up.   Dr Thomas DiLorenzo  03:31 We are going to die   Keith Weinhold  03:35 well, but I didn't risk my life like Indiana Jones did there. This archeology, it only involves some Google searches. Well, here's the thing. What's remarkable about America staving off a mammoth recession and leaving all the other g7 nations in the economic dust is the fact that merely predicting a recession often makes it come true. Just predicting one often turns a recession into a self fulfilling prophecy. Yeah, recession forecast headlines alone, they can spook employers from making new hires and slow down manufacturing, and it can also disillusion real estate investors from expanding their portfolios. Well, the US economy grew anyway, besides the farcical prognostications about myriad interest rate cuts in a quote, unquote definite 2023 recession that never happened. You know, there's also a third forecast that so many got wrong. And you probably know what I'm gonna say. I've brought it up before, because this hits our world, those erstwhile and well still ever present housing price crash predictions. I mean this facet of the gloom boom really ramped up from 2020 One until today, even a global pandemic, new wars and a triplicate mortgage rates couldn't stop the housing price surge and the rent surge. A lot of doomsdayers just couldn't see, or they didn't even want to see that a housing shortage would keep prices afloat. They didn't want to see it because they get more clicks when they talk about the gloom government stimulus programs also buoyed prices, and deep homeowner equity cushions will still keep prices afloat. Ever since 2021 here on the show, I've used that rationale and more to explain that home prices would keep appreciating, but that the rate of appreciation would slow down, and it has slowed down since 2021 see YouTubers tick tockers. They notoriously use woe begone housing crash headlines, because that gets more clicks and then some of the rationale behind this. The reasoning is just dreadful, like, what goes up must come down, all right? Well, this is like, why does it matter? Who cares about wrong predictions anyway? What's the point? Well, people become misinformed. People waste their time on these things and see no one loses money on dismal economic predictions. But the damage is done, because when investors don't act well, then they didn't get the gain that they should have had. Businesses didn't get the gain that they should have had when they could have made new investment and hired new employees sooner. And of course, a recession is going to happen sometime. They occur, on average, every five to six years. It is just a normal part of the business cycle will collectively these three faulty economic predictions, rate cuts, a recession and a housing price crash. I think if you bundle them all up combined, it could be as bad as one doomsday prediction about worldwide starvation or the Mayan apocalypse. Remember that the wide to K bug, the acid rain, even that the internet is just a fad that ran a buck 30 years ago. World War Three is eminent, robots overtaking humans, or how about running out of crude oil. I mean, we're definitely all supposed to have jet packs in flying cars by now, right? But yet, did anyone have the clairvoyance to predict the stock market crash of 1929 or September 11 terrorist attacks, or Trump's surprise, 2016 presidency or Bitcoin hitting 70k A while back, or the coronavirus. So really, overall, the bottom line here with predictions is that no one knows the future. Control what you can maintain equanimity, add good properties, gradually raise rent, reduce expenses, create leverage and expect inflation truly the best way to predict the future is to create it in just that way. Well is the USA capitalistic nation today. That's what we'll discuss later with this week's guest. When Chuck Todd hosted the show Meet the Press, he interviewed AOC about this. Yes, I'm talking about us. House Rep from New York, Alexandria Ocasio Cortez, what she say? You   08:34 have said you are democratic socialist. Can you be a Democratic socialist and a capitalist? Well, I think it depends on your interpretation. So there are some Democratic socialists that would say, Absolutely not. There are other people that are democratic socialists that would say, I think it's possible. What are you? I think it's possible. I think you say to yourself, I'm a capitalist, but I don't say that. You know, if anything, I would say, I'm I believe in a democratic economy, but.   Keith Weinhold  09:03 okay, well, I'm not sure if that clears it up at all. And I've listened to more of that clip, and it just makes things more confusing. But I think that most people have trouble drawing a line between capitalism and neighboring economic systems. Where exactly do you draw that line? I don't know exactly where to draw it. When I think of capitalism, I think of things though, like removal of interventionist central planning and allowing the free market to run with few guardrails. And then there's an issue like labor unionization. I don't really know about something like that. This is a real estate show. I'm still forming an opinion on a topic like that. In you know, some of this gets political, and that's beyond the scope of get rich education. The Fed was created in 1913 that central planning, its central banking from 1987 to. 2006 Alan Greenspan reigned as Fed chair. Those were his years, and he became even more interventionist. And then his successor, Ben Bernanke, maybe even more so with quantitative easing and such. Let's talk about, should they end the Fed and capitalism with this week's expert guest. You very well may have heard of the late, famed Austrian American economist Ludwig von Mises today, the Mises Institute carries on his legacy, and this week's guest is none other than the President of the Mises Institute. He's also the number one best selling author of how capitalism saved America and his newer book with a title that I love, The Politically Incorrect Guide to Economics. Hey, it's great to have you here. It is. Dr Thomas DiLorenzo.   Dr Thomas DiLorenzo  11:00 pleased to be with you. Thanks for having me.Th   Keith Weinhold  11:02 Well, Dr DiLorenzo, for those that don't know, just tell us a bit in an overview about Austrian economics and what Ludwig von Mises stood for.   Dr Thomas DiLorenzo  11:02 Well, Ludwig von Mises was the preeminent critic of socialism and fascism in Europe, and in his day, he fled the Nazis literally hours before the Gestapo broke into his apartment in Geneva, because he was the preeminent critic of fascism and socialism, and he was also Jewish, and so he had to get out of town. And he miraculously ended up after wandering through Europe with his wife in New York City, and he taught at New York University for many years, until he died in 1973 and but the Austrian School of Economics is a school of thought. It has nothing to do with, necessarily, with the Government of Austria, the country of Austria, just this the founder of a man named Carl Menger happened to be from Austria, but probably the most famous or well known among Americans would be Friedrich Hayek, who won the Nobel Prize in 1970s he was a student of Ludwig von Mises and critics of interventionism, critics of socialism. We teach about free markets, of how markets actually work and how governments don't work. And that's in a nutshell, that's what it's about. And you could check out our website, mises.org, M, I, S, E, S.org, you can get a great economic education. We have a lot of free books to download. Some of them are downloaded 30 or 40,000 times a month. Still, it's even Mises old books like human action, first published in the 1960s and so you can get a great education just by reading our website.   Keith Weinhold  12:42 Well, congratulations, that's proof that you're doing an excellent job of carrying on the Mises legacy into the present day, a lot of which is championing capitalism. Do we have capitalism in the United States today?   Dr Thomas DiLorenzo  12:59 I was an economics professor from 40 years before I got this job as President of the Mises Institute. And I used to say we had islands of socialism in a sea of capitalism at the beginning of my career. But now I'd say it's the opposite, that we have islands of capitalism in a sea of socialism. And socialism, this data is not defined anymore as government ownership. That was, you know, about 100 years ago, the socialism. It's basically government control of industry and in addition to government ownership. So the instruments of the welfare state, the income tax and the regulatory state, is our version of socialism, or central planning, if you will. And it's the Federal Reserve the Fed, which is a government agency that orchestrates the whole thing, really, it's a big, massive central planning industry that controls, regulates basically every aspect of any kind of financial transaction imaginable. They list in their publications over 100 different functions of the Federal Reserve. It's not just monetary policy. It's a big regulatory behemoth, and so that's that's what the Fed is. That's what I think we have today. A friend of mine, Robert Higgs, a well known economic historian, says our system is what he calls participatory fascism. And fascism was a system where private enterprise was permitted, but it was so heavily regulated and regimented by the government that industry had to do what government wanted to do, not what its customers wanted it to do, so much, and a large part of our economic system is just like that, and we get to vote still, so that's where the participatory and comes in, and the pin of Robert Hinz.   Keith Weinhold  14:41 yeah, maybe at best, I can think of today's system as capitalism with guardrails on but the guardrails keep getting taller. And I think of guardrails as being, for example, regulatory agencies like the Fed in FINRA. In the FDA.   Dr Thomas DiLorenzo  15:01 It is the beginning of my career. You know, I studied economics and a PhD in economics, and there was a big literature on what's called regulatory capture. And it was sort of a big secret among US economic academics. There was all this research going on and how the big regulatory agencies created by the federal government in the late 19th, early 20th centuries, were captured by the industries that they were supposed to be regulating. Right? The theory was they would regulate these industries in the public's best interests. But what has happened from the very beginning is they were captured by the industries, and they benefit the industry at the expense of the public. But today, that's caught on thanks to people like Robert Kennedy Jr, frankly, has been a very popular author. He sold a gazillion copies of his book on Anthony Fauci, and in it, he explains in tremendous detail how the Food and Drug Administration was long ago captured by the pharmaceutical companies. And he's not the only one. I think that that is being more and more recognized by people outside of academic economics, like me, and that's a good thing, and that's sort of the worst example of crony capitalism. It's not real capitalism, but crony capitalism making money through government connections, rather than producing better products, cheaper products and so forth.   Keith Weinhold  16:21 I watched RFK Jr speak in person recently, and I was actually disappointed when he effectively dropped out of the upcoming presidential race. And I do want to talk more with you about the Fed shortly, but with all these regulatory agencies and how I liken them to guard rails. You know, I sort of think of it as a watchdog system that's failing. You mentioned the FDA. I know RFK Jr brought them up an awful lot, the Food and Drug Administration that are supposed to help regulate what we put inside our own bodies in our diet. But these systems are failing. We have regulatory agencies in industry, industry in regulatory agencies. I mean, look at the obesity rate. Look at all the ultra processed food that's allowed. Look at all the seed oils that are allowed in food that people actually think are healthy for them. So this system of capitalism with guardrails is failing almost everywhere you look.   Dr Thomas DiLorenzo  16:22 I wouldn't call it capitalism. I wouldn't use the word capitalism at all, other than crony capitalism, people can relate to that. You know, a lot of these regulatory agencies were lobbied for in the first place by industry. That while the very first one was the Interstate Commerce Commission, it was in the 1880s it was meant to regulate the railroad companies. The first president was the president of a Railroad Corporation, the head of the Interstate Commerce Commission. So talk about the fox guarding the hen house. That was from the very beginning. And so in a sense, this word capture theory of regulation, which Kennedy has used, they weren't really captured. They always were created by the government. The same is true of all the so called Public Utilities. It was the corporations, the electric power companies, the water supply companies, that lobbied for governments to give them a monopoly, a legal monopoly, in electricity, water supply and all these things that were called natural monopolies, but there was nothing natural about them. There was vigorous competition in the early 20th century in telephone, electricity, water supply, and that was all set aside by government regulation, creating monopolies. For example, in electric power, there's an economist named Walter primo who wrote a book some years ago showing that always have been several dozen cities in America that never went this way, that always allowed direct competition between electric power companies. And what do you know, better service and lower prices. As a result, they did dozens of statistical studies to demonstrate this in his book.   Keith Weinhold  18:58 Okay, well, that's a great case study. Why don't we talk about what things would look like if we took down one of these agencies? We're a real estate investing in finance show. Sometimes it's a popular meme or hashtag to say, end the Fed. What would it look like if we ended the Fed?   Dr Thomas DiLorenzo  19:18 Well, the Fed was created in 1913 in the same era, with all these other regulatory captured agencies were created, right? And it was created basically to cartelize and create a cartel for the banking industry to make it almost impossible to go bankrupt. They've been bailing out foolish bankers for 111 years. And of course, the biggest example was that as the crash of 08 after they they handed Goldman Sachs and other big investment banks billions of dollars. That was a direct assault on capitalism itself, because capitalism, as you know, is a profit and loss system. It's not a I keep the profits. You pay for my losses system. You're the taxpayer. But that's what happened with that. So the Fed would. Fall into that the Fed is actually the fourth central bank in America. We had three other ones. First one was called Bank of North America. Its currency was so unreliable, nobody trusted it went out of business in a year and a half. And then we created something called the Bank of the United States in 1791 same thing. It created boom and bust cycles, high unemployment, price inflation, corrupted politics. It was defunded after 20 years, and then it was brought back to fund the debt from the war of 1812 and so we had a Second Bank of the United States. It did the same thing, boom and bust cycles, price inflation, corrupted politics. Benefited special interest, but not the general interest, and President Andrew Jackson defunded it, and so we went without a central bank from roughly 1840 until 1913 so we've had experience of that. And what we had been was competing currencies, and that would be sort of a stepping stone. If we got rid of the fed, we wouldn't have to abolish the Fed altogether. We could amend the charter to the Fed to say you're no longer permitted to buy bonds. Can't buy government bonds anymore. That's how they inflate the money supply, right? By buying bonds. That's totally unnecessary. And we could just just that would be a great step forward, and we would sort of whittle away our $80 trillion debt, if you count again upon count the unfunded liabilities of the federal government,   Keith Weinhold  21:26 if we did end the Fed, what would the price of money? Which are interest rates really look like? Would a new market rate be sent by individuals and companies on the free market like Bank of America, with a customer or borrower settling on an interest rate that they both agree to.   Dr Thomas DiLorenzo  21:44 You know, the Fed uses sort of Soviet style economics, price control. The economists and are all getting all over Kamala Harris for recommendations for price controls on rent and other things. Well, the Fed price control. They control the price of money. That's what they do. And so there's a big, kind of a comical thing that here you have all these economists, if they were to teach economics in the week one, they would teach about the bad effects of price controls, and then they get a job at the Fed, and they spend their whole career enforcing price controls on money, and the interest rate would be determined by supply and demand for credit and inflationary expectations. That's what the market does. And you wouldn't have these bureaucrats at the Fed tinkering around with interest rates, creating tremendous arbitrage opportunities for Wall Street investors. With all the movements and interest rates, you'd have much more stable interest rates, and and you wouldn't have this ridiculous system where the Fed says we need to always have forever at least 2% inflation. And of course, they never meet that, and they lie about it. I don't believe for one minute that the price inflation right now is 3% or under 3% that's ridiculous, right? And so things should be getting cheaper. Everything should be getting cheaper because of all the technology we have. My first PC I bought in the early 80s for $4,000 and it was a piece of prehistoric junk compared to my cell phone today, that almost for free. Almost everything should be like that agriculture, but the reason it isn't is the Fed keeps pumping so much money in circulation, that it pumps up the demand for goods and services, and that's what creates price inflation. And by its own admission, that's what it does, even though it's charter, it's original charter said they're supposed to fight inflation. All of a sudden, about 10 years ago or so, they announced, south of blue, we always have to have at least 2% inflation. Congress had nothing to do with that. President had nothing to do with that, and the people of America had nothing to do with that. It was dictators like Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke that just make these announcements. And where does that come from when we live under the dictatorship of the Fed? And of course, the people who are hurt the most by the Fed are elderly people are living on relatively fixed incomes and are forced to become Wall Street speculators they want to make any more money other than their fixed income, where, you know, during the days of Greenspan, when they're pursuing zero interest rates, maybe the mortgage industry like that, but the people on retirement income were starving as a result of that. So it's been sort of an economic war on the retired population.   Keith Weinhold  24:24 Things should get faster and cheaper to produce, like you said. However, there's definitely one thing that's not getting faster to produce, that's housing build times. Housing build times have actually gone up, which is sort of another discussion unto itself. But we talk about the Fed and then setting prices. People wouldn't stand for setting the price or having price controls on oil or lumber or bananas, but yet we set the price of money itself. People have just become accustomed to that. Yet it's that money itself that we use to buy oil and lumber and bananas the fed with that dual mandate of stable prices and maximum employment. If we did abolish the Fed, what would happen to the rate of inflation?   Dr Thomas DiLorenzo  25:12 Well, we would have less inflation. It's supposed to what we replace it with. There's some system would be a replacement, but we wouldn't have the boom and bust cycles that we have now. There's been research in the past 100 years or so of the Fed, and what the academic researchers have concluded is that the Fed has made the economy in general more unstable than it was before we had the Fed and price inflation. That's a joke. The dollar is worth maybe three cents of what it was in the year 1913 right when the Fed was created. So it has failed on all accounts. And so if we got rid of it, we would reverse that. The idea would be to start out with a competing money system. And I'll tell you a quick story is, you know the word Dixie from the south, you know land of Dixie that was named after a currency by a New Orleans bank called the Dix D, I x 10 in French, and it was 100% gold reserve. It was backed by something real and valuable, and it was so popular as even used in Minnesota. But that's why the whole south, the states in the South, were using this currency, because it was so reliable. But during the Civil War, the national currency acts imposed taxes on the competing currencies and taxed them out of business and established the greenback dollar, as it was called, as the Monopoly money of the country. We didn't get a central bank during the Civil War, but we got that. And so that's the kind of system that we would have. Friedrich Hayek wrote a whole book about this, about competing currencies, called the denationalization of money. He poses that as a good stepping stone to a freer market in money. And like you said, Money is the most important thing. Is most more important than bananas or shoes or any of these other things that we might have price controls on.   Keith Weinhold  27:01 All right, so we're talking about the case for ending the Fed. What is the counter argument? I mean, other than the government wanting control, is there a valid, or any academic counter argument for keeping the Fed in place?   Dr Thomas DiLorenzo  27:16 The Fed has an army. I call it the Fed's Praetorian Guard of academics. There was a research article published by an economist named Larry White at George Mason University several years ago, and he found that 75% of all the articles in the academic journals regarding money, monetary policy and so forth, are by people who are basically paid by the Fed, one way or the other. Either they're fed economists, or they've been invited to a conference by the Fed, or they're an intern some relationship with the Fed. The late Milton Friedman once said, If you want a career as a monetary economist, it's not a good idea to criticize the biggest employer in your field. So there's a lot of nonsense about that. And so yes, you'll have all sorts of rationales, but it basically comes down to this, that we think we can do central planning better than the Russians did under communism, because the Fed is basically an economic central planning agency, and there's no reason to believe Americans are better at it than the Russians or anybody else. And it basically comes down to that, you know, studying the past 111 years that's showing Well, yeah, they've been trying that for 111 years. They've made the economy more unstable, and they have failed miserably to control inflation. And why should we give them another chance? Why should we continue along this road? We shouldn't So, yeah, there'll be all kind of excuses the late Murray Rothbard, who was one of the founders of the Mises, who once answered this question by saying, It's as though people said, Well, say the government always made shoes. 100 years ago they took over the shoe industry. People would be saying, who will make shoes if the government doesn't make shoes? The government has always made shoes, right? But the government has not always monopolized the money supply. It's only like I said, we abolished three Feds in our history. In American history, they weren't called the Fed, but they were central banks. And the Fed is called a central bank, and we've done that three times. We've abolished more central banks than we have kept in American history.   Keith Weinhold  29:17  We're talking with Dr Thomas D Lorenzo. He is the president of the Mises Institute. About, is there really any capitalism left more when we come back, this is Get Rich Education. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold,  hey, you can get your mortgage loans at the same place where I get mine, at Ridge lending group and MLS 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than any provider in the entire nation, because they specialize in income properties, they help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. You can start your pre qualification and chat with President Caeli Ridge personally. Start now while it's on your mind at RidgeLendingGroup.com, that's Ridgelendinggroup.com. Your bank is getting rich off of you. The national average bank account pays less than 1% on your savings. If your money isn't making 4% you're losing your hard earned cash to inflation. Let the liquidity fund help you put your money to work with minimum risk, your cash generates up to an 8% return with compound interest year in and year out. Instead of earning less than 1% sitting in your bank account, the minimum investment is just 25k you keep getting paid until you decide you want your money back. Their decade plus track record proves they've always paid their investors 100% in full and on time. And I would know, because I'm an investor too. Earn 8% hundreds of others are text family to 66866, learn more about freedom. Family investments, liquidity fund on your journey to financial freedom through passive income. Text, family to 66866.   Kristen Tate  31:11 This is author Kristen Tate. Listen to Get Rich Education with Keith Weinhold, and Don't quit Your Daydream.   Keith Weinhold  31:27 welcome back to get rich education. We're talking with Dr Thomas DiLorenzo. He is the president of the Mises Institute. You can learn more about them @mises.org and Dr DiLorenzo. Frederick Hayek, an economist that you mentioned very well known and a student of Ludwig von Mises, he believed that prices are a communication mechanism between a buyer and a seller. Say, for example, there's a new style of single family rental home that everyone wants to rent. So therefore the rent price goes up when other builders see that the rent price goes up, that brings in more builder competition, and with more competition, that brings rent prices down, and then the world is filled with abundant housing, rather than a scarcity of housing. So that's how I think of a free market system within capitalism as working, as defined through Hayek.   Dr Thomas DiLorenzo  32:22 You know, the consumer is king. Von Mises once wrote about the same point where he said that people mistakenly believe that it's the bankers and the CEOs and the businesses that control what gets produced and so forth, but it's really the consumer. You build a housing development then people don't want those houses. You'll find out real fast who's in charge. It's not the mortgage brokers. It's not the bankers. It's not you, it's the consumer. That's the free market system, and if you do without it, and not using the free market system, whether it's for money or anything else, is kind of like trying to find your way around a strange city with no street signs, and the prices are the street signs that tell us what to do, exactly like you said, if there's strong demand for a certain type of housing, that'll drive the price up, and that'll tell the home builders, we can make money building more of these. And they will do that. Nobody tells them. The Chairman of the Fed doesn't have to tell them that the President doesn't have to tell them that Congress doesn't have to issue a declaration telling them to do that. That was the Soviet Union where they tried that. And that's the great thing about the market, is that the consumer can tell the richest man in the world like Elon Musk, go play in the traffic. Elon Musk, if they don't like his cars or whatever he's producing, even though he's the richest man in the world. And he understands that he's a pretty successful businessman, I would say, and so so he understands that the consumer is his boss.   Keith Weinhold  33:53 Well, what else do we need to know? You have published a lot of celebrated books, from how capitalism saved America to the politically incorrect guide to economics. What else might a real estate investor or an economic enthusiast need to know today? Oh,   Dr Thomas DiLorenzo  34:10 well, I think everybody needs to be their own economist. You can listen to the talking heads on TV and on podcasts and all that, but educate yourself and become your own economist. Because a lot of the people on TV, as you might see on the news, they have an ax to grind, or they have a sort of a hidden financial interest beyond what they're saying, Be your own economist. And that's why I'm selling my website, which is everything on it, it's for free, mises.org, and there are quite a few others too. You don't have to go to school, you don't have to get a degree. You can get a good economic education, for example, on money. We're in the middle of giving away 100,000 copies of a book called What has government done to our money. I'm Murray rothbar. You go to our website, scroll down to the bottom, and you can fill out a form online, and we'll send you free books and. You can educate yourself that way. And so just in general, I think that's what people need to do. I taught MBA students for many years who are people in their 30s or maybe even early 40s, who didn't have economics degrees, but they were really into it, and for the first time in their careers, they decided maybe I should understand how the economic world that I live in and work in every day operates rather than going through your life and your career without you. Might know all about real estate sales, but it's also useful to know about the economy in general and how things work.   Keith Weinhold  35:35 And when one becomes their own economic student and they take that on, I think it's important for them, like you touched on to not just consume the economic news that's on CNBC or other major media, because that doesn't really tell you how to create wealth. It might inform you, but it doesn't necessarily tell you how to take action. For example, on this show an educational channel, you might learn about a story about rising inflation like we had starting three or four years ago. And here we talk about how, okay, if inflation is going to be a long term economic force, you may or may not like what the Fed is doing, but rather than save money, borrow money, outsource that debt service to the tenant on a cash flowing asset like a single family home or an apartment building. And that inflation that you're learning about on CNBC will actually benefit you and debase your debt with prudent leverage on a property, for example, so not just consuming the news, but learning and educating yourself and acting.   Dr Thomas DiLorenzo  36:34 Oh, sure, well It just so happens that last night, I was talking to a friend of mine who's a real estate professional. They're all talking about, Oh, are we going to have a slight drop in interest rates? And I reminded them that there will be a part of the market if they see it, if we do have a slight drop in interest rates, we'll look at that and say, well, maybe this is a new trend. And so I'll sit back and I'll wait. I'm not going to buy now, because I think the interest rates are going to go down even further in the next six months there were, there would be some segment of the market that thinks that way. And so that's just one little thing. Another thing I would mention is that one of the basic tenets of free market economics is that voluntary trade is mutually beneficial. People buy and sell from each other, because both sides benefit. And that's very important for any business person to keep in mind as you structure business deals, because you know about business deal that is successful is basically, I will give you what you want, and you give me what I want, and we're both happy. And that's that's one of the main tenets of how the market works. Voluntary exchange is mutually beneficial. So think about how to make it mutually beneficial, and you'll succeed in making a deal.   Keith Weinhold  37:45 Well, it's been an excellent discussion on Is there any capitalism left, and how would it look like if we turned the course and created more capitalism here in the United States? It's been great having you on the show.   Dr Thomas DiLorenzo  37:58 Thank you.   Keith Weinhold  38:05 Yeah , again, Learn more @mises.org or look up books by Dr Thomas DiLorenzo. His viewpoint is that there are now merely islands of capitalism in a sea of socialism where those conditions were inverted last century. We've got to end the complex between the government and corporations that these watchdogs are basically powerless when the fox is guarding the henhouse. Dr dilorezzo says we could change the Fed charter so that they couldn't buy bonds, which should reduce inflation. So he does offer a way forward there, a solution.  In capitalism, he consumer is king. This is a good thing. You yourself are empowered because you get to vote with your dollars. So therefore what you buy more of society will see and make more of but a prosperous, progressive economy that should be able to produce goods and services that are constantly cheaper because they get more and more efficient to make with innovation, but centrally planned inflation makes them more expensive, at least in dollar denominated terms. So progress should make things cheaper? Well, then everything should take fewer dollars to buy, homes, oil, bananas, grapes, but it doesn't, and it won't anytime soon, like I mentioned in the interview, there single family build times are taking even longer. That's not more efficient, and they're sure not getting cheaper. In fact, the National Association of Home Builders tells us that from permit to completion in 2015 it took 7.2 months to build a single family home. By 2019 it was up to 8.1 months and then. Last year, the time required to build a single family home from permit to completion was 10.1 months. That's not the side of an efficient economy. So basically, therefore, in the last eight, nine years, the time to build a home has gone from 7.2 months up to 10.1 months. That is a drastic increase in a short period of time. Just amazing. And we now have data after covid as well, broken down by region. The longest build time, by the way, is in New England, where it is 13.9 months to build a home from permit to completion. Gosh, such inefficiency. But despite all that stuff that you might find discouraging like that, I want to go out on a good news note here some encouraging sentiment for you, if you champion free markets, then invest in us rental property down the road, there is no centrally controlled ceiling on what you can sell your property for. Most places don't have rent control. In fact, there's been no federal rent control on private property since World War Two. And somewhat ironically, you benefit. You actually benefit from government backed loans at these low fixed rates, and now they're moderate fixed rates. You often get these through Fannie Freddie or the FHA. See you benefit from that particular government backing as a savvy borrower for rental property. And on top of this, you use the GRE inflation triple crown to flip over that not so capitalistic inflationary force. You flip it upside down and use it to your benefit, profiting fantastically from inflation. So you know how to take the situation you're given and use it to your advantage rather than your detriment. Big thanks to Dr Thomas DiLorenzo today, longtime econ professor and current Mises Institute president, more ways to build Real Estate Wealth coming up here for you on the show in future weeks, as always, with the dash of economics and wealth mindset. Until then, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, Don't Quit Your Daydream.   42:28 Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC, exclusively,   Keith Weinhold  42:56 The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth, building, getricheducation.com.  

Keith discusses his journey from an entitlement mentality to realizing the importance of wealth creation through real estate investing and shares the real estate shockwave that nobody is talking about. We are also joined by Caeli Ridge, President of Ridge Lending Group, as she explains the differences between owner-occupied and investor mortgage loans. Hear about the ease of entering real estate investing with no formal qualifications or high income required. Learn the concept of demographic shockwaves and how the aging population will influence housing demand in the future. How to ethically use other people's money to build wealth for yourself before you even own a property. Learn about the key differences between owner-occupied mortgage loans and investor mortgage loans, particularly the use of rental income in qualification. Resources: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Show Notes: GetRichEducation.com/520 For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments.  You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866 For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review”  GRE Free Investment Coaching: GREmarketplace.com/Coach Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Complete episode transcript:   Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai      Keith Weinhold  00:01 Keith, welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, I'll discuss when I was an employee with a scarcity mindset, the real estate shock wave coming that no one's talking about, then, how you can ethically use other people's money to build wealth for yourself before you even own a property today, on get rich education.   00:24 Since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold rights for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors, who delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show guests include top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki. Get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast, or visit get rich education.com   Corey Coates  01:09 You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.    Keith Weinhold  01:25 welcome to GRE from Springfield Ohio to Springfield, Missouri and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you are listening to get rich education. It's great to have you back for another week, and I genuinely appreciate your listenership, and I am grateful to have such a large audience. I've got to tell you, admittedly, coming out of college and in my first couple full time jobs, I wasn't always a good employee. I guess I had somewhat of an entitlement mentality. I'm not sure where that came from. I don't know that I can blame anyone else on planning it inside me. I don't know where I got this notion. It sure wasn't from my parents, but I kind of felt like somebody owed me a job just because I have a college degree and I'm good at showing up on time, yeah, like, I'm just a good representative for your company. I mean, now I can see that no one owed me a doggone thing. In fact, I owed my employer value. An employer actually takes a big risk on you when they hire you, paying you to train you until you're productive there. I mean, the hiring process itself is even expensive. Well, though I felt like someone owed me a job just out of college, somewhat Oppositely, I never expected any sort of high income at all, and I had quite a modest income in my first couple years out of college, just like a lot of recent college grads do, until it grew into something more. But my humble geography degree, it conditioned me to think lower income. I knew that going to college in Pennsylvania for geography in what interested me, I mean, that's what I went with, what interested me not what I could make money in well, then I couldn't find a job in my geography field at all. No one would really pay me to describe Asia's mountain ranges to them. So what I ended up doing is working under engineers at a construction and engineering firm, a few of them, one engineering firm really liked me and designated me as their new marketing person. Of all things, they wanted me to call prospective clients on the phone and meet them cold in person, because they just thought somehow, when they met me, that I could win new business for the engineering firm, just I guess, based on how I communicated with other people at other engineering companies, even though I couldn't even talk the language of engineering. Well, anyway, these disciplines engineering, and really it was construction inspection that I did for a while. You know, that stuff, even the marketing stuff, it just didn't fill my soul. And you must have felt this way at your job before. If you don't feel it perpetually, you aren't aligned with your purpose on this earth, and you're spending so many of your faculties and so much of your waking conscious life at that job. Well, motivation to escape that is what got me reading about wealth mindset and real estate investing. Since anyone can do it, no degree needed, no certification, zero formal qualification. And now I think I mentioned this to you before, but it's worth bringing up here again, a turning point is when I read one life changing sentence, just one little what is it? A. Five word sentence in a rich dad book, that pivotal paradigm shifting, course correcting sentence was, being wealthy is a choice. And when I first read being wealthy is a choice, I just didn't believe it. I thought that Robert Kiyosaki, the author, was wrong. Well now I know that he was right. I had thought that being rich is unobtainable. You had to be born into it, so unless you won the lottery, you can't achieve more than middle class. Well, I was wrong about that. Now I can't really say something like, oh, well, a college professor said that rich people are bad or, you know, I don't have that story. I can't blame anyone else for growing up with a limited, scarcity mindset, really, other than myself in the context that was created around me. I mean, growing up in Pennsylvania, I just knew that the carts family and the domileskeys, they had more than us. And that's just the way it would always be. It's sort of preordained, and other families had less than us, and these family trajectories were just cast in stone as to how it had to be. But the good news is that it's not, and this is still what makes America great, the fact that it takes zero formal training, zero risk parents, and not even a high salary for you to do something like get a three and a half percent down payment loan for owner occupied FHA fourplex or 20% down for a single family rental that produces income from day one in The Southeast or Midwest, you can plant that seed that get other people's money working for you seed in just that way, even if you're interested in something as unprofitable as geography. Now, a huge reason that people disparage the wealthy is rooted in jealousy and envy, and that is not good. There's no goodness in those emotions, and that is because people don't think it's obtainable for them. It's obtainable for almost anybody. Learning that it is within your reach that completely breaks down your resentment of the rich. Yes, indeed, being wealthy is a choice. Well, people are obtaining wealth in today's real estate market. Here, Redfin reported that through the latest quarter ended real estate investors bought fully one in four of the nation's most affordable homes. That's up 3% year over year. And as Redfin puts it, it's a sign that investor activity is stabilizing, and as homeownership remains out of reach for many Americans, real estate investors are coming out of hibernation to take advantage of robust demand from renters. So investors are buying a greater proportion of affordable homes, some of them through our marketplace, GRE marketplace. Now over the long term, let's think about how US housing is going to be positioned for sustainable demand. Demography is destiny. That's a quote attributed to 19th century philosopher Auguste coon Tay, it means that the size and structure of a population will influence its future. So then all we need to do is track the age of a population over time to sharpen and give clarity to a forecast. It is axiomatic that in 10 years, a 25 year old will be 35 No kidding. Well, what's important about the age of 35 is that is the average age of today's first time homebuyer. It's between 35 and 36 All right. Well, the US is peak birth year occurred in 2007 we know that just look at demographics. Well, then add 35 to it. Add 35 years to 2007 This means that, on average, they will buy their first home in the early 2040s a lot of people are going to be forming their first household, whether it's rent or buy around the year 2040, I mean, the peak in all of American history, a lot more people will need homes. In fact, more than 13,000 Americans are turning age 35 every single day for the foreseeable future for more than a decade. This year is the first year where we've ever had over 13,000 Americans turning 35 every single day. And that is projected to continue to happen every single year through 2035 and that's as late as the Census Bureau projection that I have goes on. On that stat this baked in demographic housing demand. Hey, if we don't get serious about building more housing fast, and it's likely that we won't, this will be analogous to a demographic shock wave that hits the housing market. The population aging into homeownership is projected to exceed the population aging out, as in the death rate for a long time. This will pump housing demand, and that's not all. I've only talked domestically so far. This doesn't even account for additional demand from immigration. And immigrants tend to be younger and are renters for a long duration, or just forever. On top of immigration, the average number of people per household is falling as well. In 1960 3.3, people live per household in 1990 it was down to 2.6 by 2023 it was down to 2.5 this means that more housing is required just in order to shelter the same population. But of course, the population won't stay static. So to keep piling on with the housing demand here, the overall US population is projected to grow as well, from 342 million today to 383 million in 30 years. That's per the CBO. The demographics for senior housing are even more bullish. And of course, when I use the word bullish like this, this bullish sentiment that's from the investor side. If you're looking to buy your first home or find a place to rent, this is all more discouraging than perhaps all of our perpetual struggles to live a balanced life or lose weight. This baked into the cake. Demand is almost perfectly predictable, and it's of seismic importance to the real estate market. And yet, despite that fact, you know, more investors curiously fixate for month after month on something like the Fed's interest rate decision or the next jobs report. I mean, this is both harder to predict and way less significant than the sustainable demographic demand for rental housing that you got right there. So really, to sum up, this segment demographics reveal that housing demand should stay high for decades, long term, then you should expect higher home prices, higher occupancy rates and higher rents. And you can benefit by owning many rental properties. And our guest and I are about to discuss how you can do exactly that own many rental properties, and how to do it efficiently with less cash out of your pocket, including how you can start using other people's money before you even own a property when you're trying to qualify for a loan on a rental property, in some cases, you can Use a portion of the tenant's rent income toward your qualification income. Let's talk with this week's guest. There's one place that's created more financial freedom through real estate than any other lender in the entire nation that's time for a big welcome back to their president, Caeli Ridge.   Caeli Ridge  13:23 Keith Weinhold, my friend, thank you for having me happy to be here, sir.   Keith Weinhold  13:26 Oh, it's so good to have you here. You're a longtime friend of the show and so many of our listeners that you've helped originate investor mortgage loans. Caeli leads Ridge lending group. They're an investor centric lender. She does such a good concise job of explaining specifically what real estate investors need to know in optimizing your loan positions. In fact, on a previous episode, she once broke down every single line of a closing disclosure form for us one by one, detailing each individual closing cost and prepaid item and in there, besides being specific income property loan experts, they're really thorough and helpful that way. Well, Caeli, tell us about the key differences between owner occupied mortgage loans for buying a primary residence and investor mortgage loans for a rental property.   Caeli Ridge  14:17 The key things are that on a rental property, probably the biggest difference is going to be that for a rental property, there's additional incomes that potentially we get to use to help offset that new monthly liability, aka the mortgage payment, p, i, t i, principal, interest, tax and insurance, we have access to income potentially to help offset that. So in the debt to income ratio category, it can be a huge boon or a huge benefit, depending on what the individual's qualifications are. Additionally, in that same theme, we're not just confined to a conventional Fannie Freddie loan for investors. We have things like the DSCR debt service coverage ratio that you would not be able to apply to a primary residence, but also allows for income to help identify whether the property qualifies for financing.   Keith Weinhold  15:04 So for prospective investor borrower is wondering whether we'll have enough income to qualify for that property or not. Is it a certain percentage of the tenants rent income that is used in the investor borrowers qualification income?   Caeli Ridge  15:19 absolutely, so conventional full doc mortgages they are going to receive in the acquisition year formula, because there's two formulas that will be used in underwriting. One is called the acquisition year. The other one is called the Schedule E I'll focus on the acquisition year. This is applicable from the date that they acquire the property and until that tax year's Federal tax return is filed. I needed to find up to in a minute they get up to 75% of the gross rents minus the proposed p, i, t, I, principal, interest, tax and insurance. Now I say up to because it depends on two primary criteria that the borrower must possess in order to get the full 75% so think about it this way. There's three buckets. Okay, the first bucket gets the full 75% of whatever the gross rents are. The easy math example that I give, let's say that the gross rents are $1,000 a month. The PI ti proposed payment is 500 a month. If they're in bucket number one, and they get the full 75% of 1000 they have 750 bucks, right? And from that they're going to subtract out the $500 of mortgage payment. In that example, it would leave them with a gain positive 250 so that individual came to us with a debt to income ratio of x as a result of purchasing this investment property, their DTI is going to go down because they're $250 richer monthly. So 75% is the maximum you can use in the acquisition year. That individual in that bucket has to demonstrate two things. One, they have a primary housing expense, whether that's a mortgage or they rent, either is fine. And then second, they need to be able to demonstrate that they can they've had 12 months of history in owning investment property. So if they have both of those two things, they get the full 75 if they have one or the other, they're in bucket number two, which gives us an offset. They cannot have the full 75% they don't get the full gain, but I can offset. So going back to my example, using $1,000 of income and $500 of mortgage payment, they can't have the 250 gain, but I can give them up to 500 making that a zero, right? It's covered completely the mortgage payment. It's not increased any debt or anything in the example. So DTI would stay exactly the same as where they began, when we started. And then finally, bucket number three would mean that individuals that have neither of those two things, no primary they live rent free, no primary house expense, and they do not have 12 months demonstrated history currently, of being an investor. They get zero of the rental income, so they've got to support the full new payment within their DTI and keep it within that 50% threshold. So that was a long explanation to the question, but I think that that pretty much covers it.   Keith Weinhold  17:56 Now, That's really helpful. Okay, that can help the borrower's debt to income ratio. I guess a lot of cases is going to be helping it out by a small amount. What if, say that investors buying a new build rental property and there is no tenant, hence no rent income there yet.   Caeli Ridge  18:11 I'm so glad you asked. So on a subject property basis, that is the property in which they're purchasing at the moment in time. It's called the subject property. Those properties do not need to be tenant occupied. We can use assumptive rental income from the appraisal on a rental property that will come with some additional forms. It's called a 1007, it's just the number on the page. Those are rental income comps. The appraiser has given us an average of what those rents are going to be, and that's what we're going to use the 75% calculation on.   Keith Weinhold  18:41 Okay, that's really good to know new build or resale rental property, that's going to work the same with either one there. Now I know oftentimes that one wants to qualify. When we look at non order occupied properties, rental properties with conventional conforming loans from Fannie or Freddie, typically, one puts 20% down on those properties we've talked before. I think one can put as little as 15% down, although they would have PMI in that case, or alternatively, rather than putting 20% down, last time I checked, they could put 25% down and get a lower interest rate. So can you talk to us about the interplay of the percent down payment for rental property.   Caeli Ridge  19:21 I'll start by saying, more often than not, when you do the math the capital expenditure, or in this case, the difference between 5% down 80 versus 75% divided by the monthly payment difference, you're going to find that the leverage is going to outperform the higher 80% will outperform the lower 75% but absolutely, to your point, the payment is going to be less for two reasons. At the 75% level, the interest rate will be lower because you've got more skin in the game. The interest rate, loan level, price adjustment for 75% is going to be more attractive than it will be at 20% down. So the rate will be lower. And of course. The loan amount is lower, so both of those combined characteristics are going to create better cash flow, it's true, and a lower monthly payment. However, the math that I always want to promote, that people are doing is looking at it side by side, all you have to do, and it's actually much easier than people, I think, assume. So you figure out the capital expenditure difference. Let's just use 100 grand, okay, because his math is simple. So you've got $5,000 in additional capital that you'd be bringing to the table for the 75% option, right? Versus retaining the five grand, the payment difference is 50 bucks a month. Okay? Whatever the number is, all you're going to do is take the five grand and divide that by the payment difference, and that will give the individual the number of months it takes them to recapture that capital for the savings. Generally, my opinion, per an investment property is that if that number is in excess of 36 months, it's going to take you over 30 or three years to recapture that capital versus the savings. I'd keep my money because I can do one of a few things with it. If I chose to, I could cash flow the 50 bucks myself every month for 100 months, if that was the math. Or I could apply that five grand and use it with some other monies, perhaps, and buy another investment property, or put it in different investment asset class that would provide a return so more often than not, when they do that math, my belief is, when I do it, I'd say even 95% of the time, the higher the leverage is going to be, the better return numbers.   Keith Weinhold  21:27 We're philosophically aligned that way. We're leveraged proponents here, typically the smaller down payment, 20% is going to be better for you long term than 25% even though you'll get a somewhat lower interest rate on a rental property, putting 25% down rather than 20% when we pull back, we look at the interest rate difference between an owner occupied property and a rental property. What is the spread between the interest rate? Of course, you're going to pay higher interest rate on a rental property because it's a lot less likely that the borrower is going to walk away from their own home than they would a rental property.   Caeli Ridge  22:02 exactly and this is a great segue into those LLPAs that I always like that we spend some time talking about. So llpa, loan level, price adjustment. So for the GRE listeners, this is a more complicated concept, so I'm going to try and quickly break it down. Keith loves it when I get so wordy. So llpa is a positive or a negative number that associates with the individual characteristics of the loan transaction. So one of those characteristics, obviously, is occupancy. The loan level price adjustment for a primary residence versus an investment property is quite different, and for the reasons exactly that you described, there's a lot less risk in a primary then there will be in a rental. Because if an individual needs to choose between defaulting on where they live and an investment property, if it came down to that, obviously they're going to maintain, yeah, so they got to choose. So skin in the game, risk, etc, generally speaking. And there's all those other variables too, credit score, loan size, loan to value, property type, purchase versus refi, those are all unique llpas That will have their own unique number. But in general terms, an owner occupied where you live is typically going to price out an interest rate about one percentage point lower than you would find on an investment property, generally, if we're comparing apples to apples.   Keith Weinhold  23:15 talking about that risk difference for the lender, just like in the 20% versus 25% down. Example, there's less risk for the lender when you put 25% skin in the game. Hence the lower interest rate there too. Caeli, tell us about fitting the right mortgage type to the borrower. And of course, there are so many types. There's 30 year versus 15 year, fixed rate mortgages versus Adjustable Rate Mortgages, interest only, DSCR loans like you touched on. So tell us about getting that right fit for that individual borrower.   Caeli Ridge  23:49 This is a bit of a rabbit hole. So what I would start by saying is we do at Ridge take a lot of time on the front end and identifying not only what their needs are, their goals are, but obviously what their qualifications are, and marrying all of those things together and coming up with a roadmap that I like to call it, depending on where the individual is in their journey of real estate investing, as the tax returns may continue to be filed, and how aggressive they want to be with their deductions, maybe some cost segregation. I know I'm getting a little bit technical here, but because we maintain and have all of those products, it's very, very uncommon, or very rare, that we find an investor, potential client, that we do not have some sort of loan product to satisfy what their end game or end goal is. And you know, maybe we continue to graduate them. Let's say that they start in a DSCR because they can't qualify for Fannie Freddie today, but that is their ultimate goal. We're going to provide them with the insight and the background or the feedback that plants the seeds and gets them to that place in six months or a year, or whatever. So I hope I answered the question, depending on their individual needs and goals and qualifications, of course, really will dictate which one of those is going to be applicable.   Keith Weinhold  25:00 We've got a lot more to discuss, including, is it easier to approve w2 incomes from a day job versus 1099 from contract or gig work? And more, we're talking with the nation's foremost expert on income property. She is the president of ridge lending group, Caeli ridge. More, we come back. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold.  hey, you can get your mortgage loans at the same place where I get mine, at Ridge lending group and MLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than any provider in the entire nation because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage, you can start your pre qualification and chat with President Chaley Ridge personally. Start now while it's on your mind at Ridge lendinggroup.com. That's ridgelendinggroup.com. Your bank is getting rich off of you, the national average bank account pays less than 1% on your savings. If your money isn't making 4% you're losing your hard earned cash to inflation. Let the liquidity fund help you put your money to work with minimum risk, your cash generates up to an 8% return with compound interest year in and year out. Instead of earning less than 1% sitting in your bank account, the minimum investment is just 25k you keep getting paid until you decide you want your money back. Their decade plus track record proves they've always paid their investors 100% in full and on time. And I would know, because I'm an investor two, earn 8% hundreds of others are text family, 266, 866, learn more about freedom. Family investments, liquidity fund on your journey to financial freedom through passive income. Text family, 266, 866   Robert Kiyosaki  27:00 This is Rich Dad, Poor Dad Author Robert Kiyosaki, listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold, Don't Quit Your Daydream.   Keith Weinhold  27:18 Welcome back to get rich education. We're talking with Ridge lending Group President Chaley ridge. These discussions are great, because debt, through leverage, builds wealth even faster than compound interest, as I've discussed, and Caeli is really the linchpin in her company, and help makes that happen with reliable income property loans and Caeli today, there are a lot more people with sharing economy income, gig economy income, or doing contract work, and they're paid with a 1099 form that shows their income for that year, versus a w2 employee wage job. So can you tell us about whether it's easier to approve those that have a w2 income and that versus the 1099   Caeli Ridge  28:03 I don't know that I would classify it as easier as harder. It's just different. So on the 1099 first and foremost, if you don't have a 24 month history of having that kind of income, you're not going to get a conventional loan. And assuming that we're going to kind of keep on that path of Fannie Freddie's. Because remember, guys, if you can't fit into those boxes. We've got 10 others that we can look to to get the financing for. But if we're in the Fannie Freddie, that's really where this is applicable, the 1099 and the w2 I mean, they're really equal in terms of the overall process. The difference would be that with 1099 you must have that 24 month history. The calculation is that we're going to take an average, it gets a little bit convoluted, like anything else that is leverage or financing related, but a 24 month average of 1099 unless we can show that that individual, let's say that they're self employed and maybe a Schedule C, and they've got their 1099 coming in through that way. If they can show five year history of having license or being self employed that way, that instead of having to use a 24 month average, we'll use a 12 month average, and that may be to their advantage. Let's say that the most recent year filed is in a bit of a decline from the prior year. Let's just use 2022 and 23 let's say 23 is a little bit lower than 22 a 24 month average is not going to be as big a number than if I were to just to be able to take the 12 month average of the most recent year. So if that individual can demonstrate they have five years of being or receiving that kind of income, then instead of being a 24 month average, I get to choose and just do the 12 month average. So that would be one thing about the 1099 that I would say otherwise, yeah, they're just different. I don't know that one is harder than the other. As long as the qualifications are there, they're there.   Keith Weinhold  29:43 When I think about this, I guess it does make sense from the lender perspective. If you're paid and shown income there on your 1099 from sharing economy work, gig economy work, or being self employed, that's more volatile work than having a day job. Um, as an employee.   Caeli Ridge  30:01 Sure, absolutely. And if you can demonstrate that you have that history and you've been able to consistently earn and have those numbers, it's okay, yeah, but without the 24 months, you're not going to get a conventional loan. You're gonna have to look at DSCR or something else.   Keith Weinhold  30:15 We're talking about what it takes to qualify for income property loans today with Ridge lending Group President Caeli Ridge, when we talk about that qualification bar that needs to be met. Caeli, you see so many loan applications in there. You have a team. You look at and deal with so many situations when you're free, you even pick up the phone, sometimes yourself, and you will talk to individual borrowers. So what do you see in there as the top reasons for not qualifying for an income property loan.   Caeli Ridge  30:42 The top reasons for not qualifying for a conventional loan probably is debt to income ratio, yeah, more often than not of the three basic criteria, which are assets, enough cash to close or reserves, credit and then DTI, I would say it's the DTI category that more often than not, is the culprit for qualifying or not. And it may be as simple as how they filed their last year's tax return and saying, Okay, before you file 2024 don't do that until you send Ridge a draft, so that we can get ahead of what you may not have known to look for last time. They could be very simple, little easy fixes. And you know, sometimes maybe it's they don't want to pay the extra taxes, which sometimes that might be required. In which case we say, okay, let's pivot over to the DSCR options. In which case, by the way, just as a quick sidebar, I'm finding that gap is starting to narrow a little bit to the point that it's a lot more affordable in terms of the investment property and what cash flow is expected than it used to be. The differences between a Fannie Freddie rate and a DSCR rate is starting to narrow a little bit. So if you have to be DSCR, I would not shy away from that just because you assume I think it's going to be more reasonable for cash flow properties.   Keith Weinhold  31:52 Yeah, I'll tell you, when I was an employee as a day job worker grinding in my eight by 10 cubicle, as it was back in the day, and I was buying income properties. Yeah, the main thing I would get held up on is that my debt to income ratio, my DTI, was too high, and my salary was pretty strong, although not fantastic, not astronomically high, but I felt like I was a guy that was pretty good, pretty prudent with my finances. And yeah, it didn't feel good to be told hey, Keith, to lower your DTI. You need to pay off your 3% automobile loan that's at a nice fixed interest rate. I didn't want to have to do that, but I was willing to do that to retire the small loan in order to qualify for the big loan.   Caeli Ridge  32:36 That makes sense. I might just offer a comment in that regard. What you may have experienced at that time could have been what we call an overlay in the industry. So, yes, like anything, right? Lenders aren't created equal. Because we're so investor friendly and focused, we are going to go by the purest form of those Fannie Freddie guidelines. It's called a seller's guide. And as an example, let's just say that Fannie Freddie gives you 75% of the subject properties, gross rents, whereas B of A or I'm just picking on B of I don't know why, but some other lender may impose an overlay. It's like layers of risk and saying, No, we're not going to give you any rental income credit whatsoever, even though the guideline says that we can do it, our overlay says, No, we can't. So depending on who you're working with, credit unions are a little notorious for that being a little bit more restrictive in their box of guideline. So it may not always be what you think. So if you've had a lender, tell you DTI wise, you don't qualify, but you feel like this is not quite right. You should double check that, because it may be an overlay.   Keith Weinhold  33:34 Everyone is interested in interest rates. It's been so interesting with what's happened the past few years, ever really, since the covid Emergency cut took place in 2020 and the volatility that we've seen in interest rates, then we saw interest rates max out in this cycle at about 8% almost a year ago. What does this declining interest rate environment mean at a mortgage loan company? And what do you see for the future of rates there?   Caeli Ridge  34:02 Well, rates have been coming down. If you guys are watching the headlines, you're seeing those sound bites. We have started to see some more refinance activity than we were seeing before, certainly additional purchases as we start to see interest rates come down, I am of the opinion that we're going to continue to see some improvement in the rate department, dependent on some of the jobs reports that we'll be getting soon, so we'll see. But My money is on that, we'll continue to see some nice tailwind in the rate department throughout the rest of the year, and who knows what's going to happen? I mean, this is our election year, etc. We'll see how the rest of it plays out.   Keith Weinhold  34:33 How does a prospective borrower get their financial house in order themselves before getting a hold of you and your team there, what are some of those checklist items that they should do themselves at home first?   Caeli Ridge  34:47 like I said a bit ago, so you've got those three primary criteria. If you're wanting to qualify for those conventional full doc loans, think about your credit Do you know what that credit score is? Now, depending on some other variables, it doesn't have to be 800 Credit scores to qualify. I mean, we've got clients as low as 650 that are able to get financing conventionally, because they've got compensating factors, similarly for assets on the investment property side, the down payment and the closing costs and the reserves, none of those things can be borrowed or gifted. And that's very different than if it was an owner occupied, gifted and borrowed funds are okay for an owner occupied, for an investment property, they have to be sourced and seasoned, meaning your own funds over the last 60 days. So think about that. What your down payment is going to be an estimate of closing costs and make sure that you have the appropriate amount of capital. And then finally, that debt to income ratio. That's a slippery or one to try and calculate that for yourselves. But if you think about your minimum payments on your credit report. That's really all that goes into it. Minimum payments, not the debt load. The minimum payments on the credit report divided by the monthly income, gross income, you should be able to come up with a number, and 50% is that threshold. So if you can kind of just take that kind of mental back of the napkin of your own, you should have a pretty good gage on whether or not you think you're going to be in this box, or if getting into the game, or continuing to be in the game, is going to require some alternative loan types.   Keith Weinhold  36:05 Inflation has been such a story for the past three or four years, but some people aren't aware that there's actually been credit score inflation. Last time I checked, the average credit score had been slowly rising in the United States. What's the highest credit score that gets one the lowest rate.   Caeli Ridge  36:22 We're staying in the Fannie Freddie department, 760 and above is all the same bucket, if the individual qualifications are identical, if this one has an 850 credit and this one has a 760 credit, exactly the same in the interest rate department.   Keith Weinhold  36:35 And then, once they've engaged with you, what about locking in their interest rate. What duration did they have prior to closing? Tell us about that timeline.   Caeli Ridge  36:45 So an interest rate can be locked on a 15 day lock, a 30 day lock, a 45 day lock, even a 60 or 90 day lock, typically it's a 30 day lock that's the average. The shorter the period of lock, the better the rate and or points that you would pay. And the longer is the adverse right? The higher the rate of the higher the points. I like to look at locking an interest rate, usually when we get the appraisal back, because an appraisal can be the piece that might delay or there may be some issues. So I generally like to see the appraisal first. We've been in such a volatile area with interest rates and what might be happening in the ups and downs, etc. I've broken that rule quite a few times over the last couple of years, I would say today, floating may be to our advantage, just because we feel like rates are on the run and that they may continue to improve. Keeping in mind, once you lock in your interest rate, it is locked. Ridge does have a policy that if interest rates were to fall five, eight of a percentage point or point 625, you would have a one time automatic float down option. It's highly unlikely, and that's why we can kind of put that in there. But if it happened, we would honor that. Otherwise, when you're locked, you're stuck with that rate. You can't expect that if an eight through a quarter point comes off of or rates come down that much, that you're going to get a different rate. The only way to do that would be to let the existing one expire for 30 days and then relock market, which is not advisable.   Keith Weinhold  37:59 Yeah, you the investor, has to think about how important a lock really is to you in this declining interest rate environment, almost everyone expects mortgage rates to fall more slowly than they rose. They spiked up so fast in 2022 Caeli, how does our audience engage with you? Get Started and go on their path to getting investment property loans.   Caeli Ridge  38:24 Three ways to reach us. Obviously, we've got our website. Please check us out there. There's a lot of good information, ridgelendinggroup.com you can email us at info@ridgelendinggroup.com, and then finally, toll free is 855-747-4343 855-74RIDGE is that easy way to remember, and we'll be here on standby. Thanks, Keith.   Keith Weinhold  38:43 Ridge is the same place where I get my income property loans. It's been great having you back on the show. Thank you. Yeah, strong. Well laid out material from cheyley here, as always, let me give us a perspective on creating value by having a good loan rather than not having the debt. Remember that just four weeks ago, here on Episode 516 it was the episode about is every debt worth paying off? And the short answer is no. I got a couple questions from listeners of that episode basically asking the same thing. Well, just say that interest rates are 6% and basically they're asking, well, if I pay all cash for a property or for a car, it doesn't matter what it is, then I avoid paying 6% interest. So right there is my six points of arbitrage. Well, to that, I say, okay, but look what if you think you can achieve a 12% investment return? Borrowing at six to invested 12 is a 6% spread. That's 6% arbitrage as well. But here's the thing, you've got a big advantage of doing this with the loan rather than the paid off condition. This is because. With the loan, you still have the use of your money. You haven't given it away. You still have your money, plus the six points of arbitrage in the paid off condition. You've got six points of arbitrage and you don't have the use of the money any longer. That's the big difference, and that's the value of having a loan, as long as you can service the payments. Getting back to mortgage loans, in today's episode, there are so many loan types for property, conventional, Fannie, Freddie's, dscrs, Portfolio loans, bridge loans, rehab loans, recourse and non recourse loan types, balloon loans, arms and a lot more. Caeli and I didn't discuss their all in one loan, which is like a big, flexible HELOC that you can put on your property. It's such a good product that can help you. You can ask about their all in one loan. When it comes down to what are the factors you need to be most attentive to? They are your assets, reserves, credit, income and debt to income ratio, unless dependent on the loan type that you want. So much attention is paid to interest rates, and some attention is warranted. They surely matter. Be mindful, though, that a quarter of a percent interest rate change on a 30 year loan per 100k borrowed that is just a difference of about $15 in monthly payment, $15 if you go from, say, 6% down to five and three quarters percent, so it takes a rate drop of a full 1% for a savings of about $60 then once you have some of Your finances in order, you can go ahead and do just what I've done for my own properties. For your next income property loan, you can give them a call or start at Ridgelendinggroup.com Until next week, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, Don't Quit Your Daydream.   41:58 Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC, exclusively.   Keith Weinhold  42:18 The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building, getricheducation.com.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are working on another set of even tougher rules for commercial loans. Freddie had already announced new guidelines earlier this year, but the mortgage guarantors say they are raising the bar again due to a surge in commercial lending fraud. According to the Wall Street Journal, they expect to roll out the new rules as early as this summer. Hi I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. Before I continue, I'd like to mention that we had a webinar on residential refinancing this Thursday, August 8th, with one of our recommended lenders. Log into the RealWealth portal for a replay.   REFERENCES: 1 - https://www.wsj.com/real-estate/fannie-mae-freddie-mac-commercial-property-lenders-brokers-rules-116907c2?st=5vrm2ktykevplw9&reflink=article_copyURL_share   2 - https://www.bisnow.com/national/news/multifamily/freddie-mac-tightens-lending-rules-in-bid-to-detect-fraud-123826 ~~~~ LINKS: JOIN RealWealth® FOR FREE

As property managers you likely know a little bit about mortgages. But do you know about non-QM loan strategies and how your clients and investors can utilize them? In this episode of the #DoorGrowShow, property management growth experts Jason and Sarah Hull sit down with Matt from Nexa Mortgage to talk about using non-QM strategies to unlock your portfolio's potential. You'll Learn [05:46] QM loans VS non-QM loans [16:14] Why Jason and Sarah went with non-QM [22:07] Which one should you choose? [26:46] Why should property managers know this? [32:23] What about long-term rentals Tweetables “If you have a great manager, it makes sense to get as many properties as you possibly can, knowing that they are in good hands and they are being taken care of because all you're doing is printing money.” “If you have a way that you can help your investor clients get what they want, which is more deals, it's a win.” “If you are a property manager, you should also be an investor in real estate.” “It's great to manage properties and let's do that and build wealth ourselves.” Resources DoorGrow and Scale Mastermind DoorGrow Academy DoorGrow on YouTube DoorGrowClub DoorGrowLive TalkRoute Referral Link Transcript [00:00:00] Sarah: He said, "I am not joking. I had to submit over 100 documents to the company in order to just see if I'm qualified to get this additional loan. And he's like, I just feel like there has to be an easier way." And there is, but sometimes people don't know about that.   [00:00:20] Jason: Welcome DoorGrow property managers to the DoorGrow show. If you are a property management entrepreneur that wants to add doors, make a difference, increase revenue, help others, impact lives, and you are interested in growing in business and life, and you're open to doing things a bit differently, then you are a DoorGrow property manager. [00:00:39] DoorGrow property managers love the opportunities, daily variety, unique challenges, and freedom that property management brings. Many in real estate think you're crazy for doing it. You think they're crazy for not because you realize that property management is the ultimate high trust gateway to real estate deals, relationships, and residual income. At DoorGrow we are on a mission to transform property management business owners and their businesses. We want to transform the industry, eliminate the BS, build awareness, change perception, expand the market, and help the best property management entrepreneurs win. We're your hosts, property management, growth experts, Jason and Sarah Hull, the CEO and COO of DoorGrow. Now let's get into the show.  [00:01:23] All right. And today we're hanging out with Matt Dean of Nexa Mortgage, and we're going to have an interesting conversation about financing and loans and I don't know, and some other stuff, but Matt welcome to the show.  [00:01:36] Matthew: Good morning. [00:01:37] Good morning. Thanks for having me.  [00:01:38] Jason: It's good to have you. So give us a little bit of background of how you got into the whole real estate industry and give people a little bit of background on you.  [00:01:49] Matthew: Sure. So, after I graduated from college, which I went to college in Missouri, I ended up moving to Austin, Texas, and one of the first jobs I got was with a commercial finance company and that landed me in Lakeway, which is where I reside now, and have been for over 15 years. But the commercial finance company that I worked with was was a fairly new company that came in from California. The owners Had a mortgage background and had gotten into this commercial finance division. [00:02:15] They had sold off a couple of mortgage companies opened up this division and Lakeway. They were also land developers and commercial finance guys. So they saw a lot of opportunity out here and opened up this company. So anyway, I got in on the ground floor. They were relocating the company here and had a couple year run with that. [00:02:31] And then in early 2000, the .Com kind of came in and blew up that whole industry. So what we were doing was commercial finance, equipment finance really, and at the time it was a lot of computer equipment and I was working with a lot of Dell sales reps that were taking over some of their overflow that Dell didn't want to finance. [00:02:49] So, when all that happened, and it blew up the owners who had the mortgage background really saw that "hey, we're going to see a refinance run here. The market's going to crash rates are going to come down. There's going to be a run." And so they immediately just flip. They had a mortgage company here, but it wasn't early. It was dormant. Yeah. And they flipped it open and and just started building that company out. And so that's ultimately how I got into the mortgage business. And, right after that, we had this really big refinance run. We grew that company very quickly to about 35 employees where we were doing 300 to 400 loans a month with a fairly small company. [00:03:27] And that just, jump straight in and learn the business. And so then in about 2007 ish, 2006 ish, I really got exposed to the investment world, so to speak. I got partnered up with a real estate brokerage here in Austin that focused on investment properties and primarily what they were focusing on was duplexes. [00:03:47] And so that year in 2006, I believe it closed 152 duplex transactions, and it was mainly California investors coming into Austin. And it really just changed my whole perspective of the mortgage industry as opposed to first time buyers or veterans, which I enjoy working with all those folks, but the commercial or the investment world, it's a different animal in that it's less emotion and more about business. And so I really just gravitated more to working with investors, started buying properties myself managed a few properties myself and then, evolved from there. But I worked with that same group and Lakeway for about 12 years and then moved around a couple of places and work for a builder and and a couple other companies. [00:04:29] But anyway, that's how I got in it, got started.  [00:04:31] Jason: Yeah, so you've seen it from a few different angles than the whole real estate investment industry, sounds like. [00:04:37] Matthew: Yeah, I've been through a few of these cycles of ups and downs. Obviously the refinance run early on was, really interesting, but a lot of good, easy money on the table, so to speak, but then we had the crash, which was a very difficult time for a couple of years, although, Austin weathered that storm pretty well relative to a lot of other areas of the country. [00:04:56] So, even though our volumes were down, our real estate didn't see as big of an equity loss and the job market here in Austin's always been really strong. So, it pulled us back out of it fairly quickly. We're in a situation now where rates are high and property values have gone up. [00:05:11] And it's a challenge for some folks here to purchase. A lot of folks are just priced out of the market and can't afford it. And property taxes aren't helping that situation.  [00:05:19] Jason: Yeah,  [00:05:20] Sarah: It's so pricey here. So pricey.  [00:05:22] Matthew: But we're starting to see a little bit of pull back on the values and the houses. It's a little bit more of a buyer's market now, but it still needs to come down a little bit, I think in my opinion, it's to balance the market again.  [00:05:34] Jason: Interesting. So the topic today is unlock your portfolio potential, non QM strategies for real estate investors. And for those that don't know what QM is, which I don't. So educate me. What's QM?  [00:05:47] Sarah: So I handled all of this stuff and Jason got to the closing table and he's like, "I'm an owner in the LLC, right?"  [00:05:54] Matthew: It's like, yeah, I barely talked to you along the way, but anyway, yeah, so let's talk a little bit about QM and how that all started. So, after the real estate crash in the 2006, 2007, eight ish area the CFPB was formed a consumer finance protection bureau, which took over the regulation with the mortgage industry. [00:06:12] It took them a few years, but in 2014 they implemented what was called TRID, which you may have heard that word, but it was where we got rid of the good faith estimate and integrated the new loan estimate and closing disclosure took over. And at that same point in time, the regulations came out and then classified conventional loans or reclassified them as qualified mortgages. [00:06:35] What that means really is the CFPB was trying to put protections in place to protect consumers and also strengthen guidelines to make sure that people or buyers had the ability to repay. So what that really meant was additional restrictions on ability to repay, debt ratio requirements, reserve assets, et cetera. [00:06:55] So, if you do a conventional loan, which is Fannie, Freddie. Those are considered qualified mortgages. They have additional protections in that you're maxed at the amount of fees you can charge a buyer. The APR has to be within guidelines within a maximum. So all those things are really for consumer protection, right? [00:07:14] At the same time, what caused the market crash before was what subprime mortgages. And so at the time, subprime mortgages initially had a place in the market. They really were good for investors because investors were putting money down, they had good credit typically, and they had reserve assets. [00:07:35] When the market shifted, and they started using subprime loans to qualify buyers for primary residences that really had no business buying homes is where it got in trouble. So after QM was announced or came out with CFPB, then they also had non QM loans. What that means is any loan that falls outside of the qualified mortgage guidelines, for whatever reason, can still be funded or it would fall within non QM. [00:07:59] Non QM just meant if you're a lender who does those type of loans, you're now required to hold additional reserve assets in your bank or your mortgage company per loan to cover for the potential higher risk and default.  [00:08:12] Jason: Okay.  [00:08:13] Matthew: And it took a few years from 2014. The market started to come out with products in 2015. [00:08:18] The industry was really not sure how to handle it. A lot of banks didn't want to even dive into it. And then it started to evolve. And "okay, there's a big market here." So now it's one of the fastest growing segments of the market and banks have realize or figured out how to meet the ability to repay guidelines with alternative methods, right? [00:08:41] So you don't have to have W2s and tax returns and pay stubs, which a conventional QM loan would require. Now, they look at different factor, like, 12 months business bank statements. I can look at a CPA prepared profit and loss statement, I can look at just the rent income on the property and that's what's classified or called DSCR. [00:09:03] And then also it's asset based loans where we just look at the asset and we turn the asset into a revenue stream. So that's really how non QM started and really what it is. It's just an alternative way of qualifying the mortgages that falls outside of the Fannie Freddie conventional type of loans. [00:09:21] Jason: Got it.  [00:09:21] Sarah: So what does that mean for investors? Because we have some investors that listen to us and we have some property managers who work with investors. So what would that mean for an investor that is looking to get into more investment properties?  [00:09:39] Matthew: Yeah, absolutely. So, the challenge that a lot of investors run into is a lot of them are self employed and a lot of them start accumulating property. [00:09:48] So if they fall into either one of those categories, either they're self employed. Or they've accumulated a lot of properties or both, right? The challenge becomes with qualified mortgages is from an income perspective, right? So good CPAs are going to try and shelter income for self employed borrowers and for investors by showing, minimal profits or minimal or losses on their properties. [00:10:11] And so, as investors start to accumulate more properties, it becomes more challenging to qualify for conventional loans, because for every property on a conventional loan, Fannie and Freddie want additional reserve assets. So that means you start getting 6 properties, you need assets for each one of those properties on top of down payment funds for the purchase property and the reserves on that property. [00:10:33] So, from two perspectives, either an income perspective, where we have a challenge again, a self employed borrower shows losses on his tax returns for the last 5 years by design, because he doesn't want to pay taxes, or we've got multiple properties also showing losses when I'm looking at income on a conventional loan basis, I have to use the income from the tax return. [00:10:52] So losses can be a problem. Also, the reserve requirements, so, taking into those two scenarios, you've got a self employed borrower that, let's say they, they have gross revenue of half a million dollars, but they're showing losses of, 50-60-70,000 dollars. We're just looking at 12 months bank statements in that case, which gives us gross revenue and then we back out of a factor of say, 25 to 30 percent for taxes and we use that as revenue or income to qualify. If we have an investor that, let's say, not necessarily self employed they have multiple rental properties that are basically just, showing losses and now their income is diminished to where they can't qualify. [00:11:32] Then we have the debt service coverage ratio programs. Like, we utilize with your property where we're looking at just the rent on the property. Right? So the rent the market rent or the short term rental just needs to cover the principal interest, taxes, insurance and fees. And so those are 2 products that we use and that's really how, I would say it helps investors in those scenarios. [00:11:54] The other products that we could look at are P& L products meaning that ACPA provides a P& L statement, and then we can use that income, or if they have significant assets just in investment funds and whatnot, we can turn that into a revenue stream. But the bottom line is it just eliminates the need for W 2s, tax returns, or pay stubs, and we look at other alternative income sources to qualify. [00:12:18] Sarah: It's funny. I was actually on Instagram the last week, I think. And there's this guy, he has a very large account and I can't remember his name. And he's very big on investing in real estate. And he said, "guys, like, I just need some help. I like I'm going through this whole process and you jumped through 10, 000 hoops." and he said, "I am not joking. I had to submit over 100 documents to the company in order to just see if I'm qualified to get this additional loan. And he's like, I just feel like there has to be an easier way." And there is, but sometimes people don't know about that. I still talk to investors and property managers and they don't know. [00:13:02] They're like, "I'm just too conventional. That's like what you do. That's like the normal thing that we're all trained and used to doing." So just knowing that there are other options that don't require all of these crazy hoops to jump through and all of this documentation and lots of red tape and underwriting. [00:13:22] It's not that it's eliminated. It's just that it's a lot easier of a process and especially if you're a savvy investor that takes a loss on your taxes, just because your tax return shows a loss, it doesn't actually mean that you're losing money, right? So there's a big difference there. So that plays a big part too. [00:13:43] Matthew: Yeah, there are investors. Sorry. I didn't mean to jump in there, but there are definitely investors that lean on that from a documentation standpoint. Right? They've been down this road. They have multiple properties and more properties, you have the more documentation you need to provide to try and qualify for those conventional loans and it just becomes more and more challenging. [00:14:00] And, even more so if you have a loan officer on the front end of that's trying to originate a loan, that isn't really versed in investment properties and doesn't know how to underwrite the tax returns, they can get in trouble. They look, "oh, I got good credit. I've got down payments." But when you try and pull together tax returns and the income from multiple properties and business losses and this and that, it becomes very complex. And it's honestly, a lot of loan officers don't even know how to look at that correctly. And so they just throw the file up. It goes to underwriting. And then 2 weeks later, they've got a problem. But I just closed a deal actually yesterday and it was ended up going non QM short term rental. And the gentleman is great credit owns his own businesses, owns multiple properties and schools here, but the documentation, because he owns, like, 8 companies and probably 7 or 8 rental properties, and he had a partner in this particular property that, It became so complicated with trying to pull some of that stuff together and also with the partner who wasn't necessarily as strong as him where it just made sense for us to go short term rental and move on. [00:15:07] And that's what we did. So we just made it easy. He was happy that he didn't have to continue to jump through all those hoops. And we were able to get the property done and close in about two and a half weeks.  [00:15:17] Jason: You said it made sense to go short term rental. You meant to go non QM. Is that what you meant? [00:15:21] Matthew: To go non QM. Yeah. We went short term rental income, which is non QM to qualify the income on the property. This happens to be a short term rental down on the Comal River and it's got great income. It just he had a private money loan on it when he purchased it needed to refinance the note was coming due and he just has a very complex financial situation. [00:15:43] And he got involved with a partner on this property that also created some challenges with that particular situation and just made it a lot easier to use him and go non QM short term rental income only and just get it done.  [00:15:54] Jason: So, would that be a DSCR loan going on the short term rental income? [00:15:59] Or is that different?  [00:15:59] Matthew: Yes, it is technically a DSCR loan, which means debt service coverage ratio. And this is what we utilize with your property as well, by the way. we're looking at either long term rents.  [00:16:10] Jason: We should tell that story, by the way, everyone listening has no clue. [00:16:13] Sarah: I know, right?  [00:16:14] Jason: Why don't we have Sarah explain like why we went this route, how we ended up talking with Matt and like how this all worked out.  [00:16:21] Sarah: Okay, let's do that. So, Jason, oddly proudly, he's like, "I've never owned a rental property and I've never managed a rental property. And I do this now." And I said, "this is nothing to be proud of. Like you're 46, you should own things. You should have assets." So like I, on the other hand, like I had, in my twenties, I started investing in real estate. So, Jason and I for a while have been saying like, "when are we going to get one together?" [00:16:48] Because we didn't have one yet and he never had one.  [00:16:51] Then also our circumstances in life have changed a little bit. And we thought " we need an additional property at this point." And we were in a unique situation where right now in Austin, I'll just start by saying long term rental is hard to make it make sense financially. [00:17:10] You're probably not going to cashflow.  [00:17:13] Jason: Yeah.  [00:17:13] Sarah: Not right now. Anyway, it's just, it's really hard because prices are high. And interest rates are also high. This is where we are. So we couldn't have possibly done a long term rental anyway, because we needed the property to have some personal use on it. [00:17:28] And we decided, "Hey, let's also use it for some of our DoorGrow events." Because every time that we do an event, We pay somebody else.  [00:17:37] So let's pay ourselves through that. So for that reason, it only can really be used as a short term rental property. So we decided, "Hey, there's these kind of three components." [00:17:48] And I'm really big on asset protection, meaning I need the property to be owned and deeded and financed in an LLC. So originally I was working with another agent. We've worked with him before on our primary home. He's a really great agent. I had asked him about, "can we fund it in the name of an LLC?" [00:18:09] And he said, "no you can't do that. It doesn't really work that way." And it seemed like he was just trying to talk us out of it. I even talked with that he typically uses and that we used on our, Home that we live in. And he said, "Oh no, yeah, we don't do properties in the LLC. It'll be in your name. And then after closing, we could do a quick claim and then like change the deed and put the deed in the LLC name." And I said, "okay, what about the mortgage?" And he said, "no. The mortgage stays in your name." And I said, "I'm out." Like that is where I'm out. You're piercing the veil. [00:18:44] All of my personal assets would now be exposed and on the line. And that completely defeats the purpose of having an LLC. And he was like, yeah, we just don't do that. I really don't think that's going to be a problem. So I said, "okay, do you know anybody now he's been in this business for like 20 or 30 years?" [00:19:02] "Do you know anybody that can do that?" And he said, "Oh, not really." So that was time to start looking for somebody else because I know that it can be done. I've done it in Pennsylvania. So there's no way that Texas can't do this. Texas is far ahead of Pennsylvania in a lot of different ways.  [00:19:19] Jason: So we found another agent. [00:19:20] Sarah: So we found another agent who then referred us to Matt and he said, "Hey, I know a guy. He's really great. And I'm pretty sure he can do what you need." So I said, "great. What's his information?" I had a conversation with Matt and he's like, "Oh, well, yeah, we can do that." And I said, "so you can put the loan in the LLC. Not my name, the LLC. He said yeah, we can do that." Like it was easy. So it can be done. Sometimes you just have to look around a little bit. So that was how our deal was structured. So we went non QM and we ended up doing, since it is a short term rental, we went DSCR so that the rents would cover essentially your PITI. [00:20:00] And this is how we made our deal work. So we closed PITI. [00:20:06] Jason: PITI for the listeners is...  [00:20:07] Sarah: principal interest taxes insurance. [00:20:11] Matthew: Yeah, so, I know that was how our conversation started was, " can we do this in the LLC?" And we walked through that and the pros and cons a little bit, I think, and that's one thing that conventional QM loans don't really not really, they don't allow that. You cannot fund in an LLC. [00:20:25] Now, what happens is a lot of people like you were advised, "hey, fund it in your name, slip it to the LLC later." That can cause some problems because Fannie Mae does have due on sale clauses in their loan documents. So, technically, if there's an ownership change, that note can be called due. Typically, you can just flip it back into your name and stop that process, but it becomes a cat and mouse game back and forth if you have a servicer that's trying to, exercise that for some reason, it doesn't happen very often. It's not a very high risk, but it's definitely something you need to be aware of. On the non QM side, the lenders want these, or most of them prefer them to be funded into LLCs because non QM as a whole is considered business purpose lending. [00:21:11] It falls outside of the consumer protection, finance protection Bureau oversight. So, it's considered or classified more of like a commercial loan. And so most of them require, or want you to fund into an LLC. There are some that will do them in their personal names. It's interesting. They follow more of a conventional loan program, which I'm not really sure I understand, because they issue a closing disclosure and they look at loan estimates, even though it's considered a non loan. So they just handle a little bit differently. Those companies will allow you to do it in your name and some of them are doing a lot of those companies are also doing primary residences under a non QM basis. So bank statement products for somebody who may be self employed also trying to buy a primary residence. That's where I see it more. Most of the the LLC stuff is for investors and those lenders are going to. Really prefer or require it to be in an LLC. [00:22:07] Jason: Got it. Okay, cool. So what should investors know in order to make the decision as to which way they should go? Like, how do you make the deciding factor? Like, what are some of the things that kind of weigh into this?  [00:22:20] Matthew: Yeah, I think really it's a conversation initially of can they qualify for a conventional loan? Do they understand what non QM loans have to offer? A lot of investors aren't familiar with the details of non QM loans, how they work, how they can help them. So it's really an education conversation of, what options we may have available. Right? I would always start with the conventional loans typically and, see if we can qualify. If you can go that route and you're putting 25 percent down you're going to get a little bit better interest rates. And then you don't have some of the other key factors that come with non QM loans. So most non QM loans do have some sort of prepayment penalty because they're selling these to a secondary hedge fund investor that wants a minimum return. So, in most cases, you're going to have a prepayment penalty in a conventional loan. Stay out of point. A QM loan legally cannot have a prepayment penalty. [00:23:14] So there's a big difference there. But as far as qualifying them, it's a really, like I said, an education and a conversation about what their profile looks like. Right? They self employed. Do they own multiple properties? Are they showing losses or profits on those properties? And then, really documenting that, 9 times out of 10, what I'm told on a verbal conversation doesn't match what I get on the documentation that way. [00:23:38] "Oh, my business makes this," but they're talking about gross revenue, not net income. They're talking about gross rent amounts, not the net income they're showing on their tax returns. So it needs to go the next level. But that initial conversation may determine quite quickly that, hey, we need to go non for what reason or, because they want to fund it in an LLC, because the property is really a short term rental, but it doesn't but they don't have any history of short term rental management. [00:24:07] And let's talk just a little bit about, how you look at the short term rental. I know that's what we were talking a little bit about before we talked about your loan, right? So there's 2 ways to look at that short term rental and it's either from well, the rental income short term or long term can either come from an appraiser. [00:24:23] Or from a software program that some lenders are now using. So a lot of lenders will lean on a typical, appraisal to an appraiser to come up with whatever that market rent may be. And like, like, you said, it's difficult to cash flow properties in Austin or in Texas. On long term rents simply because the property taxes have escalated and now with higher interest rates. [00:24:48] So a lot of times, the short term rental is really from a lending perspective an easier way to qualify the property for 1. But we do have the ability to look at it from two different perspectives and this is what we utilized on your loan. So I'll just talk about a little bit. So I have a couple lenders that will look at the short term rental from a software perspective. [00:25:05] Right? So in your case. When we had the discussion, it was really a matter of, yeah, "I really want to put 20 percent down. I don't want to put additional money down. That would be more important to me than a little bit higher interest rate. Right?" And so, when we look at different lenders that may be leaning on an appraisal. [00:25:21] I don't know what that number is for 2 weeks and me personally I feel like appraisers, especially in the short term rental market. Are a little bit lazy and sometimes they just don't have the data. So what happens is I submitted to the lender based on an 80 percent loan to value. And then all of a sudden, my short term rental income comes back low or lower than what we may have expected. [00:25:42] And now that's requiring you to put an additional 5 percent down to meet their guidelines of a debt service coverage ratio less than one or go no ratio, right? We still have an option, but the option is going to require you to put a little bit more money down. And so. Again, we have two ways to look at it either an appraisals given us that number or with some investors. [00:26:00] And this is why I like working with some of those in that case. Like I said, your most important factor is 20 percent down. so I took it to a lender that gave me that short term rental number within 48 hours. They ran it through their system. They gave it to me immediately and said, "this is where we should be." As soon as we submitted the loan to underwriting within 2 days, we had an approval and this was confirmed short term rental amount. We didn't have to wait on the appraiser and it didn't matter what the appraiser's opinion was. They already confirmed what we were going to use, which confirmed that I could get your loan approved with just 20 percent down. So, that's a preferred method in a lot of ways, especially if we're trying to keep that 20 percent down number. [00:26:38] If we have somebody that's putting 25-30 percent down, then it's. A little bit less relevant and we can, decide what option might be best for them at that point.  [00:26:46] Jason: Got it. So why should property managers who are constantly wanting to do more deals, help more investors, why should they have somebody like Matt in their back pocket? [00:26:57] Sarah: Oh, that's such a good question. Well, I want to think of it kind of twofold. One, I feel like if you are a property manager, you should also be an investor in real estate. Real estate agents just by having access to the MLS. No, that's not where all deals come from. I know that, but just by having access to the MLS and the connections that you have as a real estate agent and property manager, there's no chance that you don't come across amazing deals all the time. [00:27:23] There's no chance. So capitalize on that.  [00:27:26] You should also be an investor yourself. It's great to manage properties and let's do that and build wealth ourselves. Yeah. So that's number one. But number two is if you're like, "well, I like, I don't know, I'm unsure, or maybe I have one property or two properties and I don't know if I'm ready to continue to build a portfolio." [00:27:46] Or you're like, "Hey, I have X many properties and I'm happy right here. I don't want any more." I don't know why, but maybe you are. So if that's the case and you have investor clients that very likely would love to get into more deals themselves. And it would be great for you because now if you have an investor and they manage five doors, but that same investor can now manage 10, 20, 38. [00:28:11] That's fantastic because now your business is growing. So if you have a way that you can help your investor clients get what they want, which is more deals, it's a win because yes, the savvy investors, they're always looking for more deals. Jason's hooked now. He said to me, we closed and he was like, "how do we do another one? like, how do we do another one?" He's like, "how fast can we do another one? Like Sarah, is it possible if we do like one property a year," right? And he did. Yeah, he did. There's a lot of investors like that because once you get it. Once you really get to see all of the benefits and just how freaking beautiful it is to be a real estate investor and make money and get all of the tax benefits that you don't get in almost any other sector. [00:28:54] It's amazing. So why would you not want more of that? So if you're a property manager, it would make so much sense for you to just be able to educate your investor clients. "Hey, have you ever thought of picking up more properties?" The answer probably is going to be "yes," especially if you're doing a great job for them as a property manager. [00:29:14] Because that's a tricky part is, "well, I could buy a bunch of properties, but who's going to manage them?" If you have a great manager, it makes sense to get as many properties as you possibly can, knowing that they are in good hands and they are being taken care of because all you're doing is printing money. [00:29:30] So if you want to grow your portfolio by adding additional deals to the clients that you already have. It's like so simple, right? Why would we not do that? So having options. that not everybody knows about. It's fantastic.  [00:29:47] Jason: So in short, this just gives them a lot more options to work with because investors want to invest, and they may think, "Oh, well, I've only got this much down or I can only do a conventional, I can only do it this way. I need to meet certain criteria" or "I've just declared all these losses."  [00:30:04] Sarah: "Like I have too much debt." Maybe their like debt to income is a little maxed out because we're, keeping up with the Joneses. This is so normal, right? So that and Matt's laughing. He sees it all the time. [00:30:15] I bet he's like, "Oh, we went a little too high on that one." [00:30:18] there's good debt and bad debt though as well, right?  [00:30:21] Correct. However, if you own five properties or six properties or seven properties, every additional property that you have that is leveraged, meaning that you have a mortgage on it, that's counting against you and your debt to income ratio. [00:30:35] Jason: Right. So it gets harder and harder using conventional to get into more property.  [00:30:40] Sarah: Unless you're the Fed and you can just print money.  [00:30:42] Jason: Well, I don't know if they're buying  [00:30:44] Matthew: a lot of money.  [00:30:44] But you bring up a good point and just to clarify when we do a debt service coverage ratio program, I'm not looking at any of your debt. [00:30:52] I'm not looking at a debt ratio calculation at all. And if you own multiple properties, I'm not even looking at any of those other properties for any sort of rent, income, verification, mortgage, anything. This one is a business, right? Correct. It's it. Well, it's just debt service coverage on that subject property, right? [00:31:10] Does the rent cover the note? And do we have enough money for down payment and reserves on that property alone? We don't look at reserves for those additional properties like you would a conventional. So you got five properties. I don't care about reserves on those. I'm only looking at the subject property. [00:31:24] So, yes, debt to income is a big factor and I think, if we're talking to property management companies, it's really just an education or a knowledge of what potentially could be out there. Right? Like you said, they have opportunities to buy all the time. I would think that the savvy property manager is going to scoop those up if they can, but are they aware of these programs? [00:31:44] Or do they think that? "Oh, my debt to income is too high or I have losses on my tax returns that I'm going to have trouble qualifying." And then you also have your network of investors that you manage those properties for that potentially are looking for additional doors, but they're not aware of these programs in some cases. [00:32:00] So, yeah, it's just a matter of, I think, education and just getting the information out there. So that some of these people know what options are available.  [00:32:09] Jason: Well, it sounds like it shifts the conversation from, "can we?" Yeah. Maybe it's a no, in their thought, in their mind to "how can we?" Like, there's other creative ways that things could be done instead of saying, "Oh, it's gotta be this one way we've always done it. That's the only way." So, what about for long term rentals? Which like some of the investors listening and a lot of our clients listening may not do a short term.  [00:32:32] Sarah: You can still do a non QM on a long term, especially in Austin. Now, other markets, you might find a cashflow. Like I have a cashflow property in Pennsylvania. [00:32:40] It's a rare gem guys, but in Austin, it's hard to get something to cashflow, especially right now.  [00:32:47] Matthew: Okay, so there's two ways to look at it again. There's, or I guess, multiple ways to look at it. Not just two, but bank statements if I'm looking at it. So, if they're self employed, and they have a business that we can lean on the bank statements, right? [00:32:59] That's my income qualifier and no longer care about that negative potential cash flow on the property in the rent. Right? So that's one way. If I'm doing debt service coverage and I'm looking at long term rental, I have a client that wants to long term rented. They're not going to be comfortable stating short term rental on the application. [00:33:17] They really have no desire to do that. Then I have to look at the short term rent. Now, what that's typically going to end up, at least in Austin, what's typically going to end up happening is that property is going to have a problem cash flowing at 20 percent down or 80 percent equity. Right? So what happens is it now pushes us to. [00:33:34] A bigger down payment, a larger down payment, 25 percent 30%. And then we have the options with those lower loan values to do either no ratio or lower debt coverage ratio loan programs. Right? So. If it falls below 100%, meaning 100 percent rent coverage with PITI coverage which principal interest taxes, insurance and HOA fees all come into that play. But let's just say it's a little bit short. I've got a PITI of 2000 dollars of my rent's 1800. well, the lender is going to do one or two things. Are you going to say, "well, we need more down to get that to 100%." Or "we're going to reclassify it as a higher risk and we'll do, some of them will go down to 75 percent debt coverage, but it's a little bit higher rate." [00:34:18] Or "we have to go to a little bit larger down payment and go no ratio, right?" No ratio means we just eliminate that altogether. And it's typically 30 percent down. So, we have options to look at but it is definitely a little bit harder if we're looking at long term rents simply because it's harder to cash flows at 20%, unless again, unless we have larger down payments or larger equity positions, for refinances to soak. [00:34:42] A lot of these let's talk about that too, you have some of your property management clients that may want to purchase more properties where they could extract equity out of these homes to use to purchase more property. So there's a lot of the refinance going on with those properties to under a non QM basis, because they again, they can't qualify for a full doc for whatever reasons. [00:35:03] Right? But there are options to pull cash out under a non QM basis and utilize those funds to reinvest.  [00:35:09] Jason: Got it. So say they've got five, 10 properties, it's getting really difficult for them to qualify for a QM loan. They could maybe pull some equity out of their existing properties, do like a cash out refi, and then use that money to fund a bigger down payment to do a non QM scenario. [00:35:28] Matthew: Absolutely. Absolutely. The challenge right now in the market with refinances in general is a lot of these people have really good rates on those properties. And so they don't necessarily want to refinance and lose that low rate understandably. Right? So. In other states, you have a the ability to do HELOCs or he loans, which are second liens, Texas, it's a little bit limited. [00:35:47] There's not as many products available, especially on the investment side. There are ways to extract some of that equity and reposition it to be reinvested in other investment opportunities. And I will say that we do have the ability to do the same type of loans on small commercial properties. [00:36:04] Like, up to I've got one lender that kind of specializes in that small commercial that goes up to 24 units. So, between 5 and 24 unit apartment buildings, we're also looking at a non QM type debt service coverage loan, which is what commercial loans look at in general anyway. Commercial loans are based on cash flow, right? [00:36:23] It's all debt service coverage based on that. But in that small apartment complex arena, you've got a lot of these kind of more residential lenders that are focusing and specializing in it. Because it's a piece of the market that's left out, right? Your commercial lenders don't want to touch something that's a few 100, 000 dollars. They have minimums of 5Million dollars, 3Million dollars. And so you have these smaller properties that are great investments in some cases that also have challenges getting loans, not because of the property, but because of the size of the loan.  [00:36:55] Jason: It's just not big enough for him. [00:36:56] So Matt what areas do you cover personally? And then how do people find somebody like you, how did they find somebody like you? Like, this was a challenge we had to ask around what do people look for to find somebody that can help them with some more creative options?  [00:37:11] Matthew: That's a good question. I wish more people would know how to find me. So maybe you can help me with that. But yeah, it's just, it's interesting. There's a lot of loan officers that just don't, I guess maybe they're scared of the non QM space. They don't understand it. They're scared of change, so to speak, and so they just go, "I've never done that. And I don't know anything about it and they don't want to learn about it." it's the fastest growing segment of the market right now. Fannie Mae is pushing a lot of the paper towards non QM from a risk perspective. They want to get away from it. They're making investment rates in terms unattractive, so to speak, so they're offloading it that way. But, I think it's really through the real estate agents is probably the best way to get in touch with somebody like me, if they're familiar with it. But what's interesting is even your agent from McLean that I work a lot with Brett. [00:38:00] He wasn't 100 percent versed in these products either. So. Fortunately, he got me, right?  [00:38:05] Sarah: Yeah. Thank you, Brett.  [00:38:07] Matthew: But, yeah, as far as if you have somebody that's questions, I'm always available to potentially educate people in regards to these programs. As far as where I do business, I'm legally licensed in Texas and Arizona, meaning national mortgage licensing, which is the, the CFPB license. [00:38:22] Now, with non QM loans about 35 states don't require you to have a license within that state. So I can do non QM debt service coverage all these type of loans that we talked about in about 34 different states. Just with my national license and because they consider a business purpose use, it's classified as a commercial loan in those states, and they don't have these overbearing laws like California does or Nevada. So there are some states that it's difficult unless you want to jump through a bunch of hoops to do it. And unless there's enough volume, there hasn't made sense for me to do it. [00:38:55] I just focus on the ones that I can, which is a big piece of the country and we can help folks in those 30 some states, 34 states, whatever it is.  [00:39:03] Jason: So there's maybe 15, 16 states that you can't cover.  [00:39:06] Matthew: It's the New York the Pacific Northwest and California, most of the middle of the country around Texas we can do. [00:39:14] I know you, you referred me to somebody in Utah the other day, they happen to be a state that requires licensing, but their licensing is pretty reasonable. So, if there was an opportunity or a reason, for some volume to come out of there, I could get licensed fairly quickly. [00:39:28] And some of these states, because I already hold a national license within them. I passed the test for that, which means you just have to take the state piece of that exam to then get licensed. Be able to do loans there, which is fairly simple. And as long as you're not in New York or California or somebody that has these crazy laws,  [00:39:44] Sarah: What's to invest there anyway, come on, like squatters and all this, like? [00:39:48] Matthew: I know, right? [00:39:49] I don't know how everybody does loans in New York. I hear it takes 90 days to close a loan.  [00:39:54] Jason: There's plenty of investors in those markets. I'm sure people listening. All right. Cool. Well, Matt, it's been great having you here on the DoorGrow show. Appreciate you being our guest. How can people find you or get in touch with you? [00:40:06] If they're wanting to reach out and find out if they're one of those 34 states.  [00:40:10] Matthew: Well, my number if you want my phone number is 512 415 6142. You can Google Nexa my name. I think if you Google my name and Nexa mortgage that come up quite a bit on the Google nexahomelending.Com is my personal website. [00:40:27] That's probably the two best ways to reach out to me just text or email and I'm more than happy to help you in any way that I can.  [00:40:34] Jason: Perfect. Well, it sounds like this is at least a key or just a tool or an idea that every property manager listening should probably have in their back pocket. [00:40:44] You should have some sort of connection to a more creative lender than you may have currently. And so, connect with Matt or maybe, I don't know, start Googling non QM lenders in your market. I don't know, but find somebody or ask around to some real estate agents, but see if you can get somebody that can help with getting some of these deals because investors, they have money, they have equity and, but they're not doing deals and they want to probably do more deals and they just need somebody creative enough to help them find some solutions or interesting ways to make it happen. [00:41:13] So, all right. Well, again, Matt, thanks for being on the show. Appreciate you.  [00:41:17] Matthew: My pleasure. Thank you very much for having me.  [00:41:19] Jason: All right. Well, everybody, if you are interested in growing your business, your property management business, reach out to us, you can check us out at doorgrow.Com. And until next time, everybody to our mutual growth. Bye everyone.  [00:41:30] Matthew: Great. Thank you. Talk to you guys soon. Bye. [00:41:32] Jason: you just listened to the #DoorGrowShow. We are building a community of the savviest property management entrepreneurs on the planet in the DoorGrowClub. Join your fellow DoorGrow Hackers at doorgrowclub.com. Listen, everyone is doing the same stuff. SEO, PPC, pay-per-lead content, social direct mail, and they still struggle to grow!  [00:41:59] At DoorGrow, we solve your biggest challenge: getting deals and growing your business. Find out more at doorgrow.com. Find any show notes or links from today's episode on our blog doorgrow.com, and to get notified of future events and news subscribe to our newsletter at doorgrow.com/subscribe. Until next time, take what you learn and start DoorGrow Hacking your business and your life.

We've already had more inflation in this young 2020s decade than the entire 2010s. If the next forty years have as much inflation as the last forty, gas will cost $13.38 per gallon, the average home $1.88 million, and the average rent $59,000 annually.  Inflation impoverishes most people. You can profit from it 3 ways at the same time. Watch the free 3-part video series: GetRichEducation.com/TripleCrown.  The 30-year fixed rate mortgage is a uniquely American construct. It virtually exists nowhere else in the world. I compare this to mortgage terms in Europe, Canada and Australia.  In much of the world, homeowners have had their mortgage payments double overnight! Trends that won't soon be disrupted: more inflation, people need to live somewhere, there aren't enough places to live. That's so simple! Invest in it. Rents are increasing the most where little new supply has been added. There's a myth that gigantic institutional investors are gobbling up all the single-family rental homes. But they only own 3% of the market. Mom & pops own 80%. Single-family rents are up 3.4% per CoreLogic. Detached SFHs are up more than attached types. Property prices and rents are positively correlated. Some people falsely think that they move inversely. Resources mentioned: Profit from inflation 3 ways: GetRichEducation.com/TripleCrown For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments.  You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866 For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review”  Top Properties & Providers: GREmarketplace.com GRE Free Investment Coaching: GREmarketplace.com/Coach Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Keith's personal Instagram: @keithweinhold   Complete episode transcript:   Welcome to GRE! I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. Learn how the misery of INFLATION is altering BOTH your quality of life and the return on ALL of your investments… … also, many people are now having their mortgage payments DOUBLE overnight and IT'S creating pain, then, what are the factors affecting the future direction of RENTS - all that, and more, today on Get Rich Education!  ______________   Welcome to GRE! You're listening to one of the longest-running and most listened-to shows on real estate investing. This is Get Rich Education. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold - the voice of RE since 2014.   I don't know if you fully realize how much inflation is steering all of your investments - and it's emphatic at a time like this when the dollar is down 25% cumulatively just in the last four years. Gosh!   And I've got some jaw-dropping inflation fact to share with you soon.    We'll get to inflation's RE affects shortly. But here's what I mean.    In stocks, they keep riding up on a wave of optimism, anticipating a Fed interest rate cut - largely due to future INFLATION expectations. Yes, there's jobs & GDP and some other factors.   But the stock market - which is a FORWARD-looking market - it moves based on what's expected to happen 6 to 12 months from now.    STOCK investors know that rate cuts open the floodgates to get us closer to the “easy money” days again.    That's why - as backwards as it is, the worse the economy looks, the lower that inflation tends to be, and then, in turn, the lower that interest rates can go, which the stock market likes.   So a worsening economy often pumps up the stock market. Soooo backwards.    Just look at what happens historically. Recessions sound bad. Yet what happens is that rates get cut in a recession - because the economy needs the help.    But nearer-term, it's this ongoing expectation of the rate cut - that's been looming out there for months but hasn't happened - which CAN keep propelling the stock market to higher highs. It's already hit all-time highs here recently. You can make the CASE that stocks should keep floating higher from here… based on that premise.   Before we look at real estate & inflation. Understand this.    Inflation has already widened the divide between the affluent and the deprived. That divide has gone from a gully to a canyon.   But... my gosh! Here's the stat that I want to share with you. And you're really going to get a sense for the gravity of what you're living through this decade.   We've already seen more inflation in the first 51 months of the 2020s decade than in the ENTIRE decade of the 2010s. Already.   This gets really interesting. Let's look at about the last four decades here.    Alright, in the 1990s decade, America had 34% cumulative inflation. Let's go ahead and… we'll associate this decade with President Bill Clinton.    We won't tie any President to the inflation number because there are lag effects and other factors. A President really can't take the credit or blame, in most cases. Just marking the era here.   So, 34% inflation in the 1990s.    The 2000s decade saw the GFC and… 29% inflation. Most of those were George W. Bush years.   The 2010s decade saw lower inflation → Just 19%. So that's under 2% a year. These were mostly the Obama years here in the 2010s.    Little flex there from the former Commander in Chief.   Then the 2020s decade → have seen, like I alluded to, and under Joseph Robinette Biden, Jr. - yes, as the oldest sitting president ever, it's easy to forget that he's a “junior. In this young 2020s decade, we have, 21% cumulative inflation. Already.   So this figure is after just the first 51 months of this decade, if we're counting from 2020… and this is largely due to supply shortages from the COVID pandemic.    So 21% ALREADY this decade… and just 19% ALLLL of last decade which was a full decade. That's the impact.    That's reflective of what you see in home prices and rent prices and utilities, transportation, labor, and almost every facet of your life.… and what you see in your weekly Costco bill and Trader Joe's bill.    Who have we left out here? A one-term president, so far? Does somebody feel left out.    Yes, that is the actual person of one Donald John Trump.   Psssshhh!   All of those figures I cited are from the BLS, and I've been rounding to nearest whole percent.   But get this! Inflation over the next forty years could make the LAST 40 years seem like a picnic.    That's partly because we're $35T in debt and that figure now grows by $1T every single quarter… every 90 to 100 days. So we MUST keep dollar-printing to help pay it back.   But just, if the last forty years repeats itself, by the year 2064, which is the next forty years, we'll see these prices. Prepare for a future that looks like this: Gas at $13.38 per gallon The home price at $1.88 million Average rent at $59,000 per year And the average salary at $104,000 That is if inflation over the next 40 years, looks like that last 40 years. Also, note how salaries don't keep pace with prices. That $104K average salary in the year 2064 doesn't sound as high-flying as those other figures.   Well, this is all really frustrating for consumers… and even debilitating to one's standard of living. Remember, this latest wave of inflation brought us the biggest YOY increase in homelessness - based on HUD figures.   and why you need to invest in something that reliably BENEFITS from inflation and pays you an income at the same time.    Look, here's really, the deal. Dollars are abundant. So then isn't it a paradox that a major spike in the supply of dollars would create more homelessness?   Well, you know that dollars are there for your taking - because so many more have been brought into existence. Dollars are abundant. So as they cycle through the economy, rather than going through the consumer motions, you can build your diverter. That's where the world of abundance exists, so get into that flow.   Ultimately, REAL capital is scarce. Your time and energy are scarce. Natural resources are scarce. Labor is scarce.   What's frustrating is that money ought to reflect that scarcity if it is going to accurately convey the value that enables people to make capital accumulation decisions.    And alas, we're doing our measuring in dollars and the dollar is not remotely scarce.   The middle class and poor often have wages that don't track inflation, yet they disproportionately suffer the higher consumer prices.   The investor class owns assets that float up with inflation. And GRE listeners will do even better than that.   As income property owners with mortgages, we're winning three ways at the same time with the Inflation Triple Crown. That's your dollar diverter.   Alright, so that's longer-term inflation. I've been talking in terms of decades - both the past and with an extrapolation into the future to 2064 there - and it's really rather sobering.   Well, what's the more CURRENT inflation situation? The situationship? Ha! What's the situationship now?   In trying to quiet it down to their 2% target, the Fed has run into so many hurdles that you'd think they were training for this summer's Olympics in Paris.   After it peaked over 9% two full years ago now, inflation's been bouncing near 3-and-a-half-percent for a year and they just keep having trouble getting it lower than that.   Hmmm... would we say that this could turn into Jerome Powell's three-quarters life crisis? We'll see.   Rising inflation is one of the key factors that brought down the Roman Empire. They famously experienced hyperinflation after a series of emperors lowered the silver content of their currency, called the denarius.    Today, some lament that the dollar isn't backed by gold, silver, or anything else.   But it is.   It's backed by the world's most powerful military, strongest economy, reserve currency status, international trade agreements, and you also… must pay your taxes in dollars.    Dollars are still liquid and useful… but perpetually debased, so get them and then transition out of them.    Yet, at the same time, we're also the greatest debtor nation in world history. The easiest way to pay it all back is to simply print more and inflate more.   So that's why it's almost inevitable that dollars will keep being worth less... and BTW, the two words “worth less” sound awfully close to the word “worthless”. Ha!    That's where we keep heading.   Until you can send a Venmo request to the Fed to compensate you for your loss in purchasing power, we need to actually do something about this.    And the dollar that you had when you started listening to me today could very well now only be worth 99 cents. Ha!   We can either have our standard of living degraded by inflation or we will decide to profit from it.   So, if you haven't yet, check out GetRichEducation.com/TripleCrown.   Rather than impoverish you, learn how you can make inflation CREATE wealth for you three ways at the same time with that free, 3-part Inflation Triple Crown video series. Good learning there.   It's free & easy to watch, again, at GetRichEducation.com/TripleCrown   Inflation seemingly seeps into everything.   Inflation took down the commercial sector - Apt buildings & offices. Apts are down 30-40% in the last two years. It's all because inflation made the Fed panic and jack up those rates.   If that's not jaw-dropping enough. Office values are down 80%+ in the last two years. 80%+, 90%+ in some cases.    Of course, office RE got the double-whammy of the inflation-induced interest rate hikes AND the Work-From-Anywhere movement.   That leaves residential 1-4 unit properties in good standing - and still impacted by inflation, but LESS impacted by inflation.    Yeah, your 1-4 unit RENTS are up - and I'll talk more about rent later in the show today.    inflation also jacked up your expenses like insurance, utilities, maintenance & repair cost and more.   But as we move away from the inflation conversation now, of course, one big reason that 1-4s have stayed resilient is the American privilege of LTFIRD - and the fact that it's 30 years for most US properties.   In fact, in 2022, 89% of homebuyers applied for the 30-year.   I think that you're about to get more appreciation for this… perhaps than you've ever had.   The 30-year FRM is a UNIQUELY American construct.    And, BTW, some people don't seem to know what the word “unique” means. You've probably heard people misusing this word all the time.   Unique does not mean something that's sort of different.    Unique means “ONE of a kind”. Unique means something that does not exist ANYWHERE else.    What do I do here on this show? Besides giving you the occasional geography lesson as a side dish to your real estate, I do this with vocabulary, grammar, and syntax as well, don't I?    Even though my own is surely imperfect.   Anyway, the reason that the 30-year mortgage can exist is due to our deep financial markets - especially our secondary market for mortgage-backed securities, where your loan gets packaged up and purchased by a bond investor - a bit like Ridge Lending Group President Caeli Ridge & I touched on last week.   The reason that mortgage-backed securities are attractive to investors in the U.S. and across the globe is because their government sponsorship makes them safe investments over long periods of time. They also provide a fixed payout to the MBS holder.   And see, the rate on the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage tracks closely to 10-year Treasurys because “U.S. real estate is almost as good an investment as a U.S. Treasury bond.”   They've got Fannie & Freddie insurance.   And that entire MBS process now has more guardrails in it than we had before the Global Financial Crisis.   We're talking about the foundation here - really - of where you get your big lumps of money from - the 30-year FRM and its uniqueness.   Compared to the world, the US has very little variable rate debt.    Less than 4% of American mortgage borrowers have debt that's on rate terms of a year or less. Over 96% of US debt is LTFRD, defined as 10 years or more.   That is virtually unparalleled worldwide. To compare us to some other developed nations, mortgage borrowers in Germany - just 47% of them have long-term fixed debt - and none of them can get 30-year debt.   Long-term debt, again, defined as ten years or more,  Is little to ZILCH for mortgage borrowers in Canada, the UK, Ireland, Italy, Sweden, Finland, Australia, and other developed nations like them.   In Canada, the most common mortgage terms reset to the prevailing market interest rate every five years.    In Finland, their mortgages reset annually or faster. Gosh, can you imagine if your mortgage rate reset every year like it does for the Finns?   Sheesh, that's more often than some people lose the remote control or rearrange their furniture.   OK. So what's this really mean?   Ya gotta… pour one out for most mortgage borrowers in the rest of the world.   They can't lock in their mortgage interest rate for the long-term. So with rates doubling or tripling, starting from 3 years ago, it's totally ruined a lot of foreign homeowners.   Look, what if you're middle class and your monthly mortgage payment soars from $1,893 on Tuesday up to $3,415 on Wednesday?   That's what's happening elsewhere. It can go up 50% overnight and nearly double overnight in Australia, Europe and elsewhere.   But in the mortgage-advantaged US, we're safe.   If we buy at an 8% mortgage rate on a 30-year fixed amortizing loan today—just the plain, vanilla loan: If rates rise to 10% later, you're happy to be locked-in at 8% If rates fall to 6% later, you'll refinance Note that I refrain from saying "just refinance". I don't like the word "just". You'll still need hours to provide documentation and your credit score will be checked. But it's worth it.   You won't “just refinance”. Ha! You'll refinance.   So think of it this way then, you can alter your deal with the bank whenever you want—and usually with no prepayment penalty. Yet the bank can't alter it on you.   What did Darth Vader say to Lando Calrissian in the “Empire Strikes Back?”. I am altering the deal, pray that I don't alter it any further.    Ha! We better not play that clip here. I don't know the copyright laws with LucasFilm or Disney there. Ha!   But you're not a dark lord of the Sith for doing it… for altering the deal on the bank. You're playing within the rules.    This is almost an unfair advantage for Americans.   The bottom line here - with this unique American advantage, is that, as rates change, you get to play both sides of the game. And that's why we add smart properties with loans.    We turn that into wealth, with compound LEVERAGE.    Now, mere compound interest, that's a vehicle for you to rely on more for your shorter-term funds, your cash or what you're keeping more liquid.   Long-term wealth is build through compound LEVERAGE.   Short-term funds - that's for compound INTEREST.   And… your bank is getting rich off of YOU. The national average bank account pays less than 1% on your savings. If your money isn't making about 4-5% today, you're losing your hard-earned cash to inflation.  What I do, is keep my dollars in a private LIQUIDITY FUND. You can do this too. Your cash generates up to an 8% return with—COMPOUND INTEREST—year in and year out instead of earning less than 1% sitting in your bank account - or even 4-5% elsewhere. The minimum investment is just $25K. You keep getting paid until you decide you want your money back. This private LIQUIDITY FUND has a decade-plus track record - and they've always paid their investors 100% in full and on time. I would know… because, I'm an investor with them myself. See what it feels like to earn 8%. A lot of other GRE listeners are. To learn more, just text the word FAMILY to 66866 to learn more about Freedom Family Investments' LIQUIDITY FUND. Get 8% interest! Just do it right now, while you're thinking about it. Text FAMILY to 66866.   More straight ahead, including what's happening with rents. I'm Keith Weinhold. You're listening to Get Rich Education. _____________   Welcome back… you're listening to Episode 503 of Get Rich Education. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold.   We've got a poll result, from our Get Rich Education Instagram Page.    The poll question was simple. “When buying property, what's more important?”    The purchase price or the mortgage rate.   71% of you said the purchase price. 29% of you said the mortgage rate.    Of course, both are important, but I think that the PURCHASE PRICE is the best answer - because your purchase price stays fixed for the life of your ownership period, and you can CHANGE your fixed mortgage rate and make it malleable… whenever it suits your needs.   As we talk about where the OPPORTUNITY is today, though multifamily apartments are going to bottom out sometime and therefore, at some point, they'll make a wise investment - who REALLY knows - maybe the time for larger apartments is now…   … one opportunity is… giving good people OPTIONS during a housing affordability crisis.   And what's going on right now is that… let me put it this way… when people have a hard time affording their own home today, basically (ha!) people are having a hard time transitioning from resenting their landlord to bickering with an HOA.    Ha! That's kind of how the world works.   Seemingly everyone would rather be bickering with an HOA rather than resenting their landlord.    A lot of renters want to be buyers… they can't… and that isn't expected to change anytime soon… as prices will likely stay elevated… and mortgage rates are staying higher, longer too.   These things are ALMOST “knowns”. It's often wise… to invest in trends that are known. Nothing's completely predictable, but when you're looking for a place to park your investment dollars, a few other things… are known… right now.   And AI is not expected to change what I'm about to tell you… anytime soon.   VR - virtual reality is not about to change what I'm about to tell you anytime soon.   AR - augmented reality isn't either. Machine learning won't imminently disrupt this.   And that is, that… everyone expects more long-term inflation. At what rate, no one knows.   People will need to live somewhere… and there are not enough places to live.   Those three facts, right there, are so simple. I love simple. Ha! One reason I love simple things is that I can remember it.    So many investors - investors in all types of things, say, from tech EFTs to junior mining stocks to crypto - you can make money there.   But, at times, investors will unnecessarily go out on the risk curve and GUESS and speculate… at a future trend.    Some are right. They're often wrong, and adopting too much of that approach… that's exactly when your risk-adjusted return goes down throughout your investor life.   Instead, you can get great returns - real estate pays 5 ways-type of returns - in these trends that I just described that are near certainties.   Why guess? When instead, you can almost be certain.   Often times, the certain thing is right… there.    It's often easier, like I think I brought up on the show once before, inspired by Jeff Bezos - don't ask what will change in 10 years.    The more insightful question and profitable question that fewer people think to ask is actually - “What will be the SAME in ten years?”   Well, when we talk about rents and the fact that tenants WILL keep paying you to live somewhere ten years from now, the trend that's taking place here in the mid-20s decade - here in the mid 2020s, is that… Rents are increasing the most where there hasn't been enough new supply added - up 5-6% in parts of the Northeast including New York and Boston - Seattle too… and parts of the Midwest. Detroit and Honolulu rents are each up about 5%.   Rents are decreasing the least, and even declined - where they've added lots of new supply recently, like Austin, Texas and Miami, where they're down 3% or more in each. New Orleans is another major city that's down - at minus 1%.    But among the larger cities, Austin, Texas is the WORST performer in the nation right now.   If you're listening to this either this week or you're listening to this ten years from today, if you want to know future rent trends, look at where they're adding supply.   Especially in apartments. But all these new apartments will fill up and nationally, they're building fewer apartments this year than last year's apartment-building boom.   When we talk about rents and who owns SINGLE-FAMILY HOMES, there are a few myths that I want to help bust for you here.   There seems to be this misconception or misinformation that GIANT Wall Street firms are buying up all the SFRs. That's just not true.    Now, there is more participation from the big firms than there has been historically, but those that own 1 to 9 SFRs… which is our definition of mom & pop investors here… constitute 80% of the SFR market.   80% own one to nine units. Now, you might own more than 9.    In fact, 14% are in that next tier up, owning 10 to 99 SFRs. Then 3% - known as small national investors own between a hundred and a thousand.   And, what's left, the big institutional investors - those that own 1,000+ SFRs - and you've heard of some of these companies - Invitation Homes, and another is American Homes 4 Rent.    Progress Residential, Blackstone, First Key Homes  - all those big players own just 3% of the market.   So again, 80% are the small ones - the mom & pops… a highly fractured market.   There are a total of 82 million SFHs in the United States. Out of all of them, do you have any idea what percent are OOed and how many are rentals?   It's 83% OOed and 17% of the single-families are rentals. So about one-sixth of SFHs are rented out.   Now, here's the thing. Some people tend to think of mom and pop single-family rental operators as unsophisticated charity case workers who never raise rents.    That's part of the perception out there.    But that narrative has never really been true, and, in fact, the COO of American Homes 4 Rent - his name's Bryan Smith - recently brought up this key point on their recent earnings call.   He said that while historically mom and pops hadn't always priced directly to market because of a lack of market data, "they've migrated into a strategy that's closer to ours."   How is this and why is this? Anymore, why ARE mom & pops raising rents just about as aggressively as the big institutional players.    It's really increased transparency on the rents that landlords are asking… through internet listing sites like Zillow.    It's not that mom and pops didn't increase rents before. (I mean… just look at what happened with rising rents in the 1970s and 80s before institutions were in the sector.)    But when there's a lack of rent amount transparency, it takes longer for operators to discover and adjust to market pricing-- especially for smaller players in a deeply fragmented market.    That's the part that's changing.   But see, increased transparency works both ways. It's good for you and bad for you as a property investor.   This information helps tenants too. In upswing markets, operators may push rents faster than they would otherwise.    But in a downswing market, operators may cut or keep rents flat faster in order to lease the unit.    Because tenants can easily see what other LLs are charging and compare features. When you price too high, units sit vacant and generate no income.   Since renters benefit from increased transparency too, if they see two similar homes, they're usually picking the better deal.   And increased transparency is why NEW lease rent growth is cooling off.    In fact, CoreLogic just released their latest SF Rent Index report last week. It showed that, nationally rents are up 3.4%, which coincidentally, happens to be the same as the latest CPI inflation number.   Detached properties are seeing more rent growth than ATTACHED ones - like townhomes. If you think about it, that makes sense. Townhomes are in less demand now.   Because the homeownership dream, is when one moves out of the apartment & buys a detached house.    And since that's so unaffordable to buy here in the 2020s decade, that's why more people are willing to pay more for to rent the detached type.   Note that SFR rent growth has moderated since mortgage rates spiked-- further dispelling the sticky myth that rents boom when home sales fall.   Remember - when homes price growth is really hot - like it was in 2021 and 2022 - near 15% - rent growth tends to be hot too. It was ALSO near 15%.   And when home price growth is moderate, like it is now, well, rent price growth is moderate too.   Prices and rents move together. They're POSITIVELY correlated. Some people think they move inversely… and we're looking at history over hunches again - what REALLY happens here.   So though you're almost certainly going to get nominal rent growth over time, it's not a good thing for you to count on it in the short-term - it NEVER is, in any era.   The time for you to push rents is, of course, in any market, when you go for NEW leases. A new lease with a new tenant is going to be higher than a renewal lease.   It's the ol' - this has been a good tenant for three years, so I don't want to push the rent too hard & lose them.    To review what you've learned today, inflation is affecting ALL of your investments, 30-year FRMs are a UNIQUE American advantage…   …it's wise to invest in future trends that are KNOWN, if you want to know what is going to happen with rents in the near future, look where they've added supply.    Less new supply correlates with more rent growth… and large institutional investors own just 3% of SFRs.    If you enjoy the show, please, tell a friend about it.   Isaiah on LI had the most flattering comment. Over there, he wrote and called GRE “The best podcast on the planet.”    I… really don't think that I can take credit for that, though… I'd like to think we're a good resource for building your wealth through REI and regularly informing you, giving you ideas that you've never thought about before that add real value to your life.   You've heard of Bidenomics. The first portmanteau type that I ever heard about a President's economic policies is REAGANomics, though it was a little before my time.    Here on the show next week, with us, will be none other than “The Father of Reaganomics”.    Yes, late President RONALD REAGAN'S Budget Director will be here next week. Basically, he was Reagan's “Money Guy”.    His name is David Stockman and he often met with the President in the Oval Office, advising Reagan on economic affairs.   I have asked David Stockman, if besides talking about the condition of today's economy next week, he'll also discuss real estate - and he agreed to do so.    That's “The Father of Reaganomics”. You can look forward to he & I together next week here on the show.   You might be one of the listeners that's been here every single week since 2014 - just like I've been here for you.     A new podcast is published every Monday. If you want more our DQYD E-mail Letter is published and sent about weekly, that's typically been on Thursdays lately. Then, there are many new videos published each month over on our Get Rich Education YouTube Channel. Those are the main three places that you can find us.   Until next week, if you enjoy listening, I really appreciate if you would told a friend about the Get Rich Education Podcast.    Until then, I'm your host, KW. Don't Quit Your Daydream!

You can get financially free twice as fast with the BRRRR Strategy instead of buy-and-hold. But it's less passive. BRRRR stands for: Buy, Rehabilitate, Rent, Refinance, and Repeat.  You can get an infinite return this way, by generating yield with none of your own money left in the deal. Learn how to obtain BRRRR financing from Caeli Ridge, President of Ridge Lending Group. The LTVs are 70%, 75%, or 80% depending on the property and financing type. RidgeLendingGroup.com specializes in helping investors buy income property. Resources mentioned: For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments.  You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866 For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review”  Top Properties & Providers: GREmarketplace.com GRE Free Investment Coaching: GREmarketplace.com/Coach Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Keith's personal Instagram: @keithweinhold   Complete episode transcript:   Keith Weinhold (00:00:00) - Welcome to GRE. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. The real estate BRRRR strategy is a shortcut to growing your wealth. But it's less passive than buy and hold with a property manager. Learn what is the Burr strategy and then about some of its pros and cons, mistakes you must avoid and financing programs available, and how it can generate infinite returns for you today and get rich. Education.   Robert Syslo (00:00:28) - Since 2014, the powerful get Rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate, investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show host Keith Reinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad Advisors, and delivers a new show every week. Since 2014, there's been millions of listeners downloads and 188 world nations. He has A-list show guests include top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki. Get Rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener.   Robert Syslo (00:01:02) - Phone apps build wealth on the go with the get Rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get Rich education podcast or visit get Rich education.com.   Corey Coates (00:01:13) - You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.   Keith Weinhold (00:01:30) - Welcome from Bridgeport, Connecticut, to Bridgeport, Texas, and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you're listening to get Rich education. Let's Do Good in the world and abolish the term slumlord profiting at the same time by providing housing to others. It's clean, safe, affordable and functional. This is where, you know, on this show, we often tell you how to become financially free through real estate investing in the next 5 to 10 years without having to be a landlord or flipper. We're going to talk about how to shorten that timeline in a moment, but I have a couple resources to share with you. First, one, late breaking development at GRI marketplace that's been popular is in Florida with new builds, brand new construction for plex's duplexes and single family rentals with points paid a 4.25% mortgage rate.   Keith Weinhold (00:02:28) - Yes, 4.25%. You can pay fewer points and still get a 4.75% rate. Also, some good low interest rate deals for foreign nationals. Go ahead and connect with a great investment coach and learn about those at great marketplace.com. For a 4.25% mortgage rate. If you're a Spanish speaker or have Spanish speaking friends, check out get Rich education.com/espanol to see my free video course on how real estate pays five ways in Spanish. It's pretty interesting how our team here has applied AI to show me speak it in Spanish. Again, you can see that at get Rich education. Com slash espanol. Now the BR real estate investing strategy is popular because it can reduce your out-of-pocket expense for property substantially. Let's break it down here. That is the b are are are are. There are four hours after the B which stands for the first B is buy. You buy a distressed property that needs to be fixed up. Then the R's stand for rehab, then rent, then refinance at that higher value, then repeat. More of you have been buying BR property through GRE marketplace.   Keith Weinhold (00:03:52) - Yes, we help you find not just buy and hold properties here, but properties optimized for the BR as well. There are properties that need some work and they are not turnkey, not ready to go with little or no money. In less than three years, you can have a portfolio of 10 to 20 properties with the BR strategy. That's a shortcut, but that does take some work. It's less passive. You're buying distressed property that needs to be fixed up, and you have to be sure that the contractor is getting the work done on time, on budget, and of adequate quality standards. And vetting contractors and dealing with contractors is not easy. I'm going to have a few tips to help you deal with that today, but if you get it dialed in, BR lets you pursue an infinite return strategy where you buy property at a low price, renovated, get it rented, and then refinance it at the higher value. And at times you can get all of your invested cash out on that refinance.   Keith Weinhold (00:05:04) - Well, because a return on investment formula is simply your dollars returned divided by the cash that you have invested in the deal. Well, therefore, if you have no money left in the deal anymore, your return is infinite. Listen carefully. If our guest doesn't do it, then what I'll do is introduce an example here in our conversation for you to get you to help understand the BR. And if this is new to you, this will stretch your thinking somewhat. And then after our break, I'm going to come back and we'll discuss more about any changes to conventional loans for buy and hold investment property. And there's one place that's created more financial freedom through real estate than any other lender in the entire nation. It's time for a big welcome back to their leader, Charlie Rich.   Caeli Ridge (00:06:02) - Hey, Keith. Thank you for having me. It's always a pleasure to be here.   Keith Weinhold (00:06:05) - Well, you know who she is by now. She leads Ridge Lending Group. They're an investor centric lender, and she does such a good, concise job of explaining what real estate investors need to know in optimizing your loan positions.   Keith Weinhold (00:06:18) - And that's why she's here with us again. And, Charlie, rather than just learn about conventional buy and hold loans or refinance loans like we've covered in the past, let's talk about lending for the BR real estate investing method. BR is a method for buying distressed property at a discount. So not turnkey, not fixed up property. Here in BR stands for buy, rehab, rent, refinance and repeat. Now for these loans. Is the lender looking more I guess Charlie maybe we should start with are they looking at the property strength or more at the borrower strength for BR loans?   Caeli Ridge (00:06:54) - Well, first of all, I would say that BR is one of my favorite strategies for real estate investors, especially if they're getting into diversifying their portfolio. I think BR is a very lucrative way to achieve the returns that people are after, not only in appreciation but also in cash flow. You can get some really great leverage in these ROI and ends up being better if you find the right properties. So I'm a big fan of the BR, but to your question, Keith, it depends on what product they're going to elicit for the end loan, for that refinance loan, if we're talking about a conventional loan, Fannie, Freddie and the qualifications are still about the individual and their debt to income ratios, etc. if we're going to put this on a debt service coverage ratio, which it can apply to both, or can, I mean, the strategy does not obligate them to one or the other.   Caeli Ridge (00:07:39) - So we can go conventional where it's still going to be about the individual. Or we can look at more of a debt service coverage ratio, where it's about the income of the property in relation to the mortgage payment.   Keith Weinhold (00:07:48) - And before we go on, of course, identifying a deal is a key here in the BR strategy. Is there any guidance you'd give with identification of that property. Because you might know more from the lender perspective on what's going to be lendable.   Caeli Ridge (00:08:03) - Well, as long as it's habitable, we can lend on it. I would say that you really want to pay close attention to a couple of things. From a lender's perspective, the ARV, right? The after rehab after repair value is the linchpin to all of this. And if you're out there getting your comps from whatever sources, the agent or Zillow or Redfin or whatever it is, the more data that you can gather, the better. But just keep in mind that the ones and zeros that you're probably gaining access to don't necessarily have the components that show all the rehab work that you're putting into it.   Caeli Ridge (00:08:34) - So if you're getting a value of a property like kind property in the area or vicinity that the property is located, it's not always going to attest to what extras you put in, whether it be the hardwoods or square footage or whatever it may be. Just keep in mind that you may not be on point there, and real estate agents, I would want you to have or be working with one that really understands the BR method, aka investor models, to make sure that you don't get caught in a scenario where you're expecting a value of x that comes in at Y, that can be very devastating to the BR methodology, especially for new investors.   Keith Weinhold (00:09:09) - It was more about coming up with the ARV because with a conventional loan on a conforming property, that value that you're lending against is typically the appraisal.   Caeli Ridge (00:09:21) - Correct. And the appraisal is going to take into consideration those rehab pieces. But it's not dollar for dollar. And while I don't know that we want to go down the appraisal rabbit hole, I will tell you that if you've got $50,000 of rehab into the property, that doesn't necessarily mean you're going to get a full 50,000 in extra value.   Caeli Ridge (00:09:38) - A lot of it has to do with what you paid for it. Like Keith, you said at the top of the podcast here, distressed property. A lot of times when people are getting into BR, they're finding under market value property to begin with, that's already worth more. They're putting in some real value adds, maybe cosmetic, maybe a little bit more, and then expecting quite a bit more in value. So there's definitely a science to it. But just make sure that for all intents and purposes, you're gathering as much data as you can. And the agent, if you're using a real estate agent to help with MLS listings, etc., that they have some basis of background within this, this particular philosophy.   Keith Weinhold (00:10:12) - Okay, so we are projecting an RV in after repair value here, and then we need to lend against a percentage of a certain value. So clearly since in this case the property is distressed, well then if the property is the lender's collateral and that collateral is a little, you know, why don't we call it damaged, if you will? Well, then I'm going to speculate that is that lender probably not going to give you as favorable loan terms as they would on a conforming property.   Keith Weinhold (00:10:39) - So tell us more about how those bur loan terms look.   Caeli Ridge (00:10:42) - So you might be surprised. Again, as long as the property is habitable the LTV is going to be the same. The value of the property. It is probably what you're going to notice more than what the lending side is going to allow for in the loan to value. So on a single family residence, if it's habitable, we're going to give the individual up to 75% of that ARV. Now, I don't know if we're ready to go down this road. I think we should talk about it at some point. The ARV and how we want to maximize and not leave any money on the table. We want to discuss the purchase price and the acquisition. I think we'll come to that. But to answer your question, habitable 75% single family or 70% on a 2 to 4 unit is going to be the maximum loan to value using the appraisal. When we talk about a cash out refinance of an investment property, which may be different if we get into a rate and term refinance as a purpose of Bur, which will probably touch on as well.   Keith Weinhold (00:11:36) - What I think for the listener benefit here, maybe it's good to jump into an example if you want to apply some real numbers here to a bird deal, and then let's walk through that with the financing and more.   Caeli Ridge (00:11:48) - Let's start with cash out, because it is different than a rate and term. So cash out simply to clarify means that the individual is going to get cash in hand. We are not simply paying off an existing hard money loan. That is a rate and term refinance. So we want to start with cash out where the cash to acquire the property was the individual sourced and seasoned funds. And let's assume that the scenario looks like this. They paid $100,000 for the property. And then there's $50,000 in renovation with the expectation. Or let's just say that we get an appraisal for 200,000. So at 200,000 and it's a single family residence, 75% of that is 150,000. Okay. So that pretty much covers their total acquisition costs. But then we've got a recommendation.   Keith Weinhold (00:12:28) - Cost is quite.   Caeli Ridge (00:12:29) - Covered. But we have to account for closing costs tax and insurance.   Caeli Ridge (00:12:31) - Let's just make it around ten grand. So the individual is going to end up with 140,000 from their 150 total acquisition cost. If you divide those two numbers, you're probably going to be at what? So 140 divided by 150,000. Yeah, 93% overall leverage. You've got ten grand skin in the game. And when you look at it from that perspective, 93% over all loan to value or leverage of this property is very, very high. If you can get a deal to work like that, you're doing very well.   Keith Weinhold (00:12:59) - And you can see why people like this and why people are attracted to this. So go ahead and tell us more about this. Because really, when we talk about lending for a bigger property, we're probably talking about two different loans, right? We're talking about the purchase price upfront and then the refinancing later on.   Caeli Ridge (00:13:17) - Right. So let's going back to my example. If you paid cash for the property, if that 150,000 was your sourced in season funds. And if you want Keith tell me later and I'll go into what source and season it is.   Caeli Ridge (00:13:28) - But you have 150,000 in on this property. The key to getting up to the maximum of 150 back. Or in our example, you ended up with 140 back because we accounted for ten grand. And in closing, cost is to make sure this is wildly important. And a lot of people get this wrong the first time they go down the Burr road. Make sure both the purchase price and the acquisition costs are listed on your final CD, aka Closing Disclosure. A closing disclosure comes to you at closing, where it's a document, a form that illustrates all of the line item pluses and minuses of the buyer and the seller and what everybody netted at the end. The CD must have the total 150 listed on there, and just one number is fine. It can be broken up into two numbers, whatever. But as long as both numbers are listed on the CD, you as the borrower, our client, her guidelines are eligible to get up to that much back. So the guideline states that the individual cash in hand cannot exceed a maximum of what the total acquisition costs listed on that CD is.   Caeli Ridge (00:14:28) - So what the common mistake is, let's just keep using our 100,000 purchase in our $50,000 renovation. The common mistake that people make is, is that they pay the 100,000, the seller is made whole. And then the day after closing, they are officially now the owner of this property. They send the 50,000 out to the contractor. Seems obvious, right? Well, in doing it that way, you've left 50,000 on the table and now you're going to have to wait 12 months per new guideline to have 12 months of ownership, seasoned ownership for Fannie Freddie to get the total 150. So make sure that the total 150 is on that CD. And the way to do this, just one more little detail. You want to be working with an escrow company that provides something called an escrow hold back. Because a lot of times when I give this advice, people say, well, I don't really want to release $50,000 to the contractor before they even started any of the work, right? That makes sense to me.   Caeli Ridge (00:15:16) - And most escrow companies do this in escrow. Hold back says that the hundred grand goes to the seller. The 50,000 is earmarked for the general contract, you've gotten your bids, etc., but the escrow company will then deliver the 50,000 upon your approval as draws to the contractor as work is being completed. And that kind of absolves that extra layer of risk. But now you've done the appropriate thing for the financing to get maximize your cash out, and you're not leaving yourself in a weird position to frontload 50 grand before you know they've even started on whatever repairs there are.   Keith Weinhold (00:15:49) - Yes. How much motivation does every contractor have if they've already got their 50 K for 50 K worth of work before they do their work? And it works this way a lot in the contracting world, where progress payments are made intermittently as the contractor performs their work. So tell us more about what we need to know here. Clearly, especially when it comes to the Bir and loans, because you just gave us a great mistake to avoid there.   Caeli Ridge (00:16:13) - Kind of keeping on that theme. And then let's talk about a rate and term refinance. You know, some of the pushback that I'll get when I have these conversations. Well, you get your bids. Okay. We'll start talking about the 50,000 renovation per hour example. And you probably get a low and a high and middle. Maybe you go with the middle. It's been my experience personally and just through conversations that the bid is 50,000. If you don't have the upfront conversation to say, I'm not going to pay a cent over the 50,000 and or you negotiate to say, okay, what is our variance here? Because a lot of times the contractor is not going to be pigeonholed to 50,000. They're going back and say, no, I'm not going to sign anything that says that it will not exceed 50,000. There are costs and things that are out of my control, blah, blah, blah. Then coming up with, okay, fine, 55,000, 50, 2000, whatever that margin might be, including that in there and then having the conversation that says, okay, fine, because you don't want to leave that money on the table.   Caeli Ridge (00:17:03) - So let me take a step back. 50,000 becomes 55,000. And if you didn't have it on the CD, that $5,000 is not eligible to get back. So if you increase the amount that's on that CD, per the conversation with your contractor, make sure one of two things that if it isn't spent, that it's coming back to you and assuming if it is, then everybody is on the same page and it's just going to be part of the expense and part of what you have potential to get back. So just food for thought there. Then moving into the rate and term refinance. Now this is something totally different. This means that you went out and got a hard money lump, some kind of a private bridge loan, which by the way, Ridge does. We have bridge loans that can help fund the purchase and the renovation. We can talk about that if you like. But if you went out and got a hard money loan, this is no longer a cash out refinance unless the value is so high that based on a 75% LTV for cash out, that there's enough money on the table that you don't want to wait the 12 months.   Caeli Ridge (00:18:00) - I'm going to pause on that for a second and just say that the numbers work for a rate and term refinance, where we have an existing loan. Let's say you've got a hard money loan for 150,000. A rate and term refinance lets us go to 80% loan to value on a single family, 75 on a 2 to 4. If you recall a minute ago it was 75 and 70. That's cash out. Refinance rate and term refinance rules when you're not getting any money in hand, were simply paying off existing liens plus closing costs. They increase the LTV allowances. So 75 2 to 480% on a single family residence. So if we can go 80% on the 200,000, what is that one? I can't do mental math, Keith. So 80% of 200,000 is 160. So in that case think about this. So let's just keep going back to our example. You've got 150 into it. We've got 10,000 of closing costs okay. 150 is a hard money loan that we have to pay off. And the 10,000 is what the new refinance closing costs are going to be.   Caeli Ridge (00:19:00) - The value came in at 200,000. 80% of that is 160,000. That's no skin in the game. You have completely covered the hard money loan paid for the closing costs. I mean, you can't get better than that. That's 100% leverage, right? You're not getting cash back. Now let's take that and say that the value came in at 250. And that's a lot of money. In that case, you may want to wait for the 12 months to get that cash back, because you're going to be limited if you use leverage to acquire the property versus your own cash, that's when you're going to have to wait that 12 months. Or if you're cash acquisition, the numbers work out where you'd get an exponentially more amount than what you put into it. You may want to wait there, too. It really just depends on what that RV is going to be. That's why it's the linchpin that'll make you decide whether you're going to wait the 12 months, or if you're ready to rock in in the immediate terms with a rate and term refi.   Caeli Ridge (00:19:53) - No seasoning. If you're not getting cash back, I don't care. We can do it immediately or a cash out refinance. As long as you're not getting more back than what you paid for it. And we can show that the dollars to acquire all in the CD and they came from, you know, seasoning.   Keith Weinhold (00:20:07) - All right. So it's the BR strategy with the cash out refinance and then the burr strategy with the rate and term terms there, if you will. Is there anything else that we need to know about either one of those.   Caeli Ridge (00:20:19) - Really a lot of people always want to say what are the rate differences? And I would say that, you know, overall they're going to be roughly the same when we start talking about those LP's. Again, Keith, low level price adjustments there, pluses and minuses that have to do with risk. A cash out is a higher risk than a rate and term, a rate and term at 80% versus a cash out at 75% might offset that. So relatively speaking, they're probably going to be within an eighth to a quarter percentage point if all the other variables are equal.   Keith Weinhold (00:20:44) - Now, clearly, I think of a hard money loan is something that allows. You to put both the purchase price of a property and the projected rehab cost, and roll those all into the loan at closing. That's what I think of as a hard money loan. Is there any difference between a hard money loan and the other things that you're describing to us?   Caeli Ridge (00:21:04) - Not really. I mean, it's probably a cat of a different name, right? I mean, a hard money loan, a private money loan, a portfolio loan, a bridge loan. I mean, you could use the same thing, depending on the context of the sentence, to mean the same thing, maybe something different. You're probably right in this context. It's going to be the same, I think.   Keith Weinhold (00:21:21) - Well, I want to talk to you more about conventional loans and any mortgage industry trends that have been taking place lately. But before we do, do you have any last thing to tell us about the Burr strategy, where really someone can accumulate maybe 10 or 20 properties in just three years with little or no money, but more work?   Caeli Ridge (00:21:39) - Yeah, a little bit more work.   Caeli Ridge (00:21:40) - I would say get to know your market, have your team. That contractor. Man, I think you alluded to this. I think that that's the piece that most people struggle with is finding the right contractor for one of the things that tends to work well, if you have established a relationship, is kind of getting in with some kind of a JV with the contractor, right? They've got skin in the game. Maybe if your numbers work out, they get a 5% bonus on the end, whatever. Just to kind of not keep them honest but keep them honest, if you know what I mean. So making sure you've got a good contractor that you can trust if you're going to be doing this out of state from where you live, even more so, doubly so you really want to have the right team. And that includes the general contractor, the escrow company, your lender. Everybody's got to kind of be on the same page if you're going to continue to do this as a rinse and repeat.   Caeli Ridge (00:22:23) - And then finally I would say bring it to Ridge. Let's just make sure if you're new to doing this, I want to make sure you're not leaving that money on the table, that we're structuring it appropriately so that we're maximizing the loan to value, we're maximizing your dollar, and that you're not leaving money or leaving money for some period of time longer than what you would have wanted to, because this is a rinse and repeat, right? If you don't do it right the first time, you could be stuck tying up 30 grand for 12 months that you would have otherwise been able to capitalize on. If we looked at it in advance of you pulling a trigger.   Keith Weinhold (00:22:52) - Yeah, that's correct. In fact, that last R in the BR strategy is to repeat it. And yet, to your point about contractors, I like to think about what contractor motivations are and what my motivations are. And in times I have incentivized contractors with giving them a 5% bonus if they finish things ahead of schedule or a 5% penalty if they finish things behind schedule and putting that in the contract as well.   Keith Weinhold (00:23:14) - You're listening to get versus a case. We're talking with Ridge Landing President Charlie Ridge about getting loans for the BR strategy more when we come back. I'm your host, Keith Windhoek. Role. Under this specific expert with income property, you need. Ridge lending Group Nmls 42056. In gray history from beginners to veterans, they provided our listeners with more mortgages than anyone. It's where I get my own loans for single family rentals up to four Plex's. Start your prequalification and chat with President Charlie Ridge personally. They'll even customize a plan tailored to you for growing your portfolio. Start at Ridge Lending group.com Ridge lending group.com. You know, I'll just tell you, for the most passive part of my real estate investing, personally, I put my own dollars with Freedom Family Investments because their funds pay me a stream of regular cash flow in returns, or better than a bank savings account, up to 12%. Their minimums are as low as 25 K. You don't even need to be accredited for some of them. It's all backed by real estate and that kind of love.   Keith Weinhold (00:24:29) - How the tax benefit of doing this can offset capital gains and your W-2 jobs income. And they've always given me exactly their stated return paid on time. So it's steady income, no surprises while I'm sleeping or just doing the things I love. For a little insider tip, I've invested in their power fund to get going on that text family to 66866. Oh, and this isn't a solicitation. If you want to invest where I do, just go ahead and text family to six, 686, six.   Speaker 5 (00:25:06) - This is our Rich dad, Poor dad author Robert Kiyosaki. Listen to get Rich education with Keith Wayne. All scripture data.   Keith Weinhold (00:25:25) - Hey. Welcome back. You're inside. Episode 502 of gray. I'm your host, Keith. Y'know, we're talking with the president of Ridge Lending Group, Charlie Ridge. She talked to us before the break about her financing strategies and the things that you need to keep in mind in order to optimize your returns there. It's only now back here on the conventional side, we talk more about conforming loans for properties that are already fixed up.   Keith Weinhold (00:25:48) - Or maybe people call those turnkey. What about some of those hurdles that investors often have in there? For example, I know that the DTI one exceeding their debt to income ratio threshold when they try to qualify is sometimes a problem. So can you talk to us about some strategies with that? For example, sometimes a person might have a $500 a month car payment, but they only have four or more payments to make for their $2,000 principal balance. And it just makes more sense to pay that off. And then that drops off the DTI calculation. Are there any other thoughts you have with regard to that?   Caeli Ridge (00:26:18) - There's so many in this. I mean, we probably have our own episode for all different ways on debt to income ratio and to move that needle. Just to go back to your example, just FYI, if the car loan is financed, not leased, and there are ten months or left reporting on the credit report automatically per guideline we had, we can exclude that if it was at least with ten months or less, we have to keep it in the ratio.   Caeli Ridge (00:26:39) - But if it's a finance car, ten months are left are showing on the report. It's automatically reduced from the liability section of DTI. The other things that we're to look at just obvious things. Can we gross up any kind of income. Right. Are there bonuses or commissions or Social Security or veterans benefits or whatever that allow us to gross those up, making sure that we've got all of the applicable income that they gather? Sometimes people will forget to say, oh, I get this. You know, child support or alimony or whatever it may be that I didn't think to disclose. We want to make sure that we have that in there. And then we talk about liabilities we want to look at here's kind of a good one. Student loans let's say that either cosigned or you have your own student loans. Fannie and Freddie have different. And maybe they're in deferment. Okay. So when we pull the credit it shows zero as the monthly payment. While Fannie and Freddie have different rules about what we have to hit them for.   Caeli Ridge (00:27:25) - And I could be getting these backwards, but I think that Fannie is 1% of the outstanding balance, whereas Freddie is a half a percent. So depending on some other variables, we may elect to say, okay, DTI is really tight, we're going to take this and make this one of Freddie, assuming that they fit all the other boxes so that we're only having to hit them for that half a percent. Otherwise we look at maybe paying off revolving debt, get those payments down if they're small enough, maybe there's a $3,000 balance that has a $300 payment that's really screwing things up, and they can afford to pay that off. So certainly we can look at those kinds of things, adding in a co-borrower, putting more money down, buying the interest rate down, maybe finding slightly cheaper insurance, right. At least for the purpose of the loan. And then if you wanted to get higher insurance or lower deductibles or higher deductibles later, you could certainly do that. So there's so many different variables that we can look at to really it's not a one size fits all.   Caeli Ridge (00:28:13) - And DTI is kind of a slippery slope. And there's lots of different ways in which we can get that down into check. And if it doesn't happen today, we can help them plant the seeds for what to do tomorrow and making sure that we get them there.   Keith Weinhold (00:28:24) - Wow, that was fantastic. I hope you, the listener, are listening closely because Charlie just gave so much packed, nutrient dense information about what you can do with your DTI. And for starters, I think a lot of people think about reducing their debt to improve their DTI. But is all your income being credited as well? Hopefully you caught that part which said that. But when it does come to reducing the debt portion, of course student loans have very much been in the news with all these plans for forgiveness. Is that impacting DTI substantially?   Caeli Ridge (00:28:53) - If they had the right documentation? Sure. Yeah. If they're on there and we have the right documentation that shows that they are forgiven, but they just haven't caught up with the system, then absolutely.   Caeli Ridge (00:29:00) - Otherwise, if they don't have the supporting doc, the letter that says and it's on the credit report, we're going to have to hit them for it, whether there's a payment there or a zero deferred. And then we have to figure out the 5.5 or the 1%. It'll have to be in there. Just depends on what they can deliver in terms of that forgiveness in paper trail.   Keith Weinhold (00:29:18) - You do with mortgages every day in there. That's what you specialize in for investors. Are there any just overall mortgage industry trends that really specifically impact real estate investors that have occurred? Or amid.   Caeli Ridge (00:29:31) - The rates? Everything is going to come back to the rates. As much as I impress upon people, it really shouldn't be about the rate. And I understand the psychology. Listen. But if they're not doing the math, they're really doing themselves and their future investment a disservice. The shelf life, you guys of an investment property mortgage is five years. Whatever the rates are today, you're not going to have that interest rate almost certainly in 5 to 7 years.   Caeli Ridge (00:29:54) - So kind of looking down the forecast of where rates we think they're going to go, the appreciation of the property, harvesting equity, pulling cash out. Keep those things in mind when you fixate on the interest rates. I would say that that's usually what it's top of people's minds. The most recent inflationary data came out. It was hotter than we expected. However, shortly thereafter, if you're watching closely the unemployment rate and the jobs report, I think it offered 175,000 new jobs and the projection was to something. So that's good news. And listen, you guys, you can't have it both ways. We're in a hot economy. I guess it depends on who you're talking to and who you're asking. I understand, but for all intents and purposes we've got inflation is is down. It's not down where the Fed's wanted that 2%. The unemployment rate is very, very low. So in that regard we're doing very well. So interest rates are going to be higher. Unfortunately it balances this way. The worse the economy does the better the interest rates do.   Caeli Ridge (00:30:48) - Finding that equal balance I think is the key. And don't ask me, I'm not going to try and predict how to do that. But do your mouth be prepared for refinancing when it comes. Sitting on the fence is usually not going to be to your advantage if you're waiting for interest rates to come down, and that coupled with house values, come down a little bit too. And you may have played yourself out of the refinance anyway for the purposes that you wanted to pull cash out. So just be educated. Call us. We can kind of walk you through some of that stuff. Interest rates, I think, are going to be higher for longer unless we see some real significant data trends, because there's a lag. And what we get from the Fed's and I think they try to put that in there, but who knows what's going to happen. What are they going to see us again June, July. We'll see what happens. If jobs reports keep being light, then maybe we start to see a little bit more reprieve in the interest rates.   Caeli Ridge (00:31:32) - But we're still we're what, seven and a quarter, seven and a half for investment property I think in most cases. So if that's too high to cash flow, find a short term rental. Find a mid term rental. There's other ways in which to accomplish your variety of variables. Even in the seven and 7.5% interest rate environment.   Keith Weinhold (00:31:49) - Well, there's so much I can say about the fed and the interest rates, but I think you said something very important earlier that the average shelf life of a mortgage loan product is about five years. It's exceedingly few people. Well, less than 1%. They're making their 360th monthly payment ever at a 30 year fixed rate loan. Charlie, I want to ask you what. Maybe it's becoming sort of known as the Charlie Ridge question. I like to ask you this almost every time that you're on the show, because it gives us a temperature of the market, because you see so many loans and so many appraisals come in there, what percent of appraisals are coming in above value? What percent are coming in on value, and what percent of appraisals are coming in below value?   Caeli Ridge (00:32:26) - We don't see as many low values.   Caeli Ridge (00:32:28) - I think that there was a period of time where that was rampant. It was really frustrating for a lot of people, especially on the Non-owner occupied side. The vast majority are coming in on point, and I think a lot of that has to do with 0809 regulation. Appraisers are kind of scared of their own shadow and overvaluing properties. So I think that they do very everything they can to hit the mark. And I don't see too much over an occasion. We'll see a little bit over. It's more likely to see it over than under these days. I would say, okay, percentages under 10% on the mark 8075 and then over. We'll give it.   Keith Weinhold (00:33:03) - 1515. Okay, a few more over than under, but pretty close to right on value there. You do loans in almost all 50 states. And these are the states where the property is located, not where the borrower lives. Right. So it's every state except a few.   Caeli Ridge (00:33:20) - Right? We're not in North Dakota and we are not in New York.   Caeli Ridge (00:33:22) - Otherwise we are lending in all 48 states where the property is. That is correct.   Keith Weinhold (00:33:27) - Yeah. And you specialize in loans for investors. Like I said earlier, what other loan types do you offer investors and others in there because you do a few primary residence loans too.   Caeli Ridge (00:33:38) - We do lots of primary. I would say, you know, it's 7030 probably. We're very capable, full service direct lender. What that means is we fund on our warehouse line, we underwrite in house, but we don't service these loans. So we bundle them up in mortgage backed securities and we resell them on the secondary market to aggregators. You guys will know this as servicers. Any Mac, Wells Fargo, whoever is going to be the end servicer of the loan. And I've worked really, really hard to create an environment specifically for investors, not exclusively, but largely so that we're not a one size fits all. So I really appreciate the question and being able to articulate to your listeners, we really do everything. It's very uncommon that we don't have a loan product to feed the actual need.   Caeli Ridge (00:34:17) - The one thing that I would say we don't have or don't offer is going to be a lot bear lot loans we don't fund on just bare land, but we can do the Fannie Freddie's bridge loans. So for the fix and flip or fix and hold the BR, we do non QM. This is just non QM is kind of everything outside the Fannie Freddie box. If you can't quite fit into the rigors of Fannie Freddie you're going to be in non QM probably where debt service coverage ratio lives. Bank statement loans live, asset depletion loans live. We have commercial loan products for commercial properties. For residential properties we have. Ground up construction. First line Helocs for relationship clients we have second line Helocs. We had second line for everybody when we pulled back just for relationship clients for reasons that we'll discuss on one on one if anybody's interested in that. What am I forgetting, Keith? You get the point. There's a lot. If you think that you're trying to get financing for residential or commercial properties, please email us and we'll take some information to let you know what we can do.   Keith Weinhold (00:35:10) - Well, yeah, to my point, you provide such a great service in a wide palette of options. It's somewhat easier to describe what you don't do. Yeah. And what you do offer to people. And of course, I've done my own loans in there at Ridge and my own refinancings in there. And yes, I usually end up getting a servicer. That's one of the big banks that you've always heard of over the long term that I make payments to. Where does one get started to get things rolling with Ridge or just to ask some questions.   Caeli Ridge (00:35:36) - Call us 855747434385574. Ridge, you'll get someone immediately. We don't have any call trees. You'll speak to me if I'm available at the time. Our website's got a lot of great information. Ridge lending group.com email info at Ridge Lending group.com. All of those ways will get you on the books with me, if that's what you like. Or assign you to a loan officer in the company. And we look forward to serving you.   Keith Weinhold (00:36:00) - You have given our longtime listeners more good, timely mortgage information than anyone in the history of the show here, and we're all better for it.   Keith Weinhold (00:36:09) - Charlie Ridge, thanks so much for coming back on to the show.   Caeli Ridge (00:36:11) - Thank you Keith.   Keith Weinhold (00:36:18) - Let's review some of what you learned about Bir and their loans today. Once your property is renovated and rented, which are the first and second are the third are. Is refinance for a cash out refinance type? It is a maximum of 75% loan to value on single family and 70% on a 2 to 4 unit, and then for a rate and term refinance, which means when you don't get any money in hand after closing and you're simply paying off existing liens plus closing costs, it's 80% loan to value on single family and 75% on a 2 to 4 unit. And you learn to be sure that both the purchase price and the acquisition cost are listed on your final closing disclosure. You know what I think is interesting with originating mortgage loans today? Overall, it's one question that I've been thinking about, and maybe we'll do a poll on this question. If we do, I'll share the results with you. And that is, do people care more about the mortgage interest rate than the purchase price of the property itself? Sometimes it seems that way to me.   Keith Weinhold (00:37:29) - Now your mortgage rate definitely matters, but not as much as the purchase price. I mean, later months or years down the road. After you purchase a property, you can often renegotiate the mortgage interest rate, like if rates fall, but your purchase price stays fixed, that part never gets renegotiated. And like I mentioned last week, low mortgage rates don't create wealth. Leverage does. And to put a finer point on that, consider that in 1971, the mortgage interest rate was 7.3%. Back there in 1971, if you had waited for interest rates to go down, you wouldn't have purchased a home or an income property until 1993. You would have waited 22 years for rates to go down. And meanwhile the price of real estate quadrupled, and many people expect mortgage rates to stay higher, longer. Whether you're interested in the BR strategy or already renovated income, property or even primary residence loans, I invite you. You can get loans at the same place that I have myself for years. That's it.   Keith Weinhold (00:38:41) - Ridge lending group.com. Until next week. I'm your host, Keith Winfield. Don't quit your day dream.   Speaker 6 (00:38:52) - Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get Rich education LLC exclusively.   Keith Weinhold (00:39:20) - The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building. Get rich education.com.

You'll get an exact mortgage rate prediction from the President of the lending company that's provided investors with more financial freedom than anyone in the nation.  Learn how to best access your equity, yet keep your low mortgage rate first loan untouched. In this Get Rich Education podcast episode, host Keith Weinhold and guest Caeli Ridge, President of Ridge Lending Group, delve into the direction of mortgage rates.  They highlight the importance of understanding today's environment and discuss refinancing opportunities in the current market.  Caeli outlines various loan products available to investors and predicts over 50% of appraisals now come in high, indicating strong future valuations.  She also forecasts higher mortgage rates to persist, with a possible Fed Funds Rate reduction by June and a 6.125% rate for 30-year fixed mortgages, non-OO, with 25% down, by the end of 2024.  The episode emphasizes education and strategic planning in real estate investment. I get my own loans at Ridge. You can too at RidgeLendingGroup.com Timestamps: The impact of inflation on real estate investing (00:00:00) Discusses leveraging properties to increase wealth, the relationship between mortgage rates and real estate, and the impact of inflation on property values. Understanding the importance of mortgage rates (00:03:52) Explores the neutral relationship real estate investors have with mortgage rates, the impact of mortgage rates on home affordability, and the significance of current mortgage rates. Historical perspective on home price affordability (00:06:18) Provides insights into the historical trends in home affordability, comparing past and current median home prices and the impact of inflation on home values. The power of leverage in borrowing (00:10:14) Illustrates the impact of inflation on loan principal balances and monthly mortgage payments, emphasizing the benefits of optimizing borrowing. Mortgage rate prediction and refinancing trends (00:16:57) Discusses the future direction of mortgage rates, refinancing trends, and the importance of considering interest rates in the context of overall investment strategies. Explanation of high points charged on investment property loans (00:23:12) Provides an explanation for the high points charged on investment property loans, related to the servicing of mortgage-backed securities and the absence of prepayment penalties. Accessing Equity with HELOC and HE Loan (00:24:21) Discussion on accessing equity using keylock and HE loan, including LTV ratios and interest rate comparisons. Trade-offs Between HELOC and HE Loan (00:25:27) Comparison of trade-offs between keylock and HE loan, including flexibility and interest payment structures. Considerations for Second Mortgages (00:26:36) Exploration of the benefits of having a second mortgage as an option and the potential drawbacks related to minimum draw requirements. Blended Mortgage Rates (00:27:56) Explanation of how to calculate blended mortgage rates based on the balances and interest rates of first and second mortgages. Appetite for Adjustable Rate Mortgages (00:28:44) Assessment of the current environment for adjustable rate mortgages and comparison with fixed-rate mortgages. Obstacles for New and Repeat Investors (00:29:45) Common obstacles faced by new and repeat real estate investors, including understanding investment goals and managing debt-to-income ratios. Forecast for Mortgage Rates (00:33:45) Prediction for future mortgage rates based on inflation indicators and the potential impact of the Fed's decisions. Loan Types Offered by Ridge Lending Group (00:35:54) Overview of the various loan types offered by Ridge Lending Group, including Fannie and Freddie loans, non-QM loans, and commercial loans. Resources and Tools for Investors (00:38:03) Information about free resources and tools available on the Ridge Lending Group website, including simulators and educational content. Conclusion and Recommendation (00:39:38) Summary of the discussion with Caeli Ridge and a recommendation to explore the services offered by Ridge Lending Group for real estate financing needs. Resources mentioned: Show Page: GetRichEducation.com/489 Ridge Lending Group: RidgeLendingGroup.com Call 855-74-RIDGE For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments.  You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866 Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review”  Top Properties & Providers: GREmarketplace.com GRE Free Investment Coaching: GREmarketplace.com/Coach Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Keith's personal Instagram: @keithweinhold   Complete episode transcript:   Keith Weinhold (00:00:00) - Welcome to GRE. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. A new take on how to profit from inflation. The best strategies for accessing equity from your property while leaving your low rate loan in place. A surprising trend with real estate appraisals. Then the president of one of the most prominent national mortgage companies joins me to give a firm mortgage rate prediction today on get rich education. If you like the Get Rich Education podcast, you're going to love our Don't Quit Your Daydream newsletter. No, a eye here I write every word of the letter myself. It wires your mind for wealth. It helps you make money in your sleep and updates you on vital real estate investing trends. It's free sign up egg get rich education.com/letter. It's real content that makes a real difference in your life. Spice with a dash of humor rather than living below your means, learn how to grow your means right now. You can also easily get the letter by texting GRE to 66866. Text GRE to 66866.   Speaker 2 (00:01:11) - You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world.   Speaker 2 (00:01:18) - This is Get Rich Education.   Keith Weinhold (00:01:27) - Welcome to Gary from Oak Park Heights, Minneapolis, to Crown Heights, Brooklyn in New York City and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and this is Get Rich education. When you have that epiphany, that leverage creates wealth, it can be enough to make you want to be the town iconoclast. Walk around, beat your chest, and boldly proclaim that financially free beats debt free. You might remember that I helped drive that point home a few weeks ago when I talked about the old fourplex owner, Patrick, who owned his fourplex next to mine years ago. He wanted to pay his down and I wanted to leverage mine up. I told you then that rushing to pay off one property by making extra payments on the principal is like drilling a deep hole into one property. And the deeper you drill, the more likely that hole is to cave in. Your return goes down and now you've got more of your prosperity tied up in just one property, just one neighborhood and just one market.   Keith Weinhold (00:02:34) - The most sure fire way to wealth, and exactly what wealthy people do, is optimize and almost maximize the number of properties that you own. And as long as you buy right as they inevitably inflate, just keep borrowing against them. And that way you never have to pay capital gains tax either. And that goes beyond just real estate. That's assets of many types. You'll want to own more assets. The way to do that is with more loans. And paradoxically, that is why the richest people have the most debt. As you watch your debt column grow, watch your column grow even faster. And as we're talking about mortgages and the direction of interest rates today, us as real estate investors, you and I, we have a somewhat neutral relationship with mortgage rates. Yeah, it's often a neutral relationship. Now, prospective homebuyers, they often want mortgage rates to be low. Sellers often want rates to be low two so that they'll have more home bidders, legacy landlords, ones that own a bunch of property and they're not buying anymore.   Keith Weinhold (00:03:52) - They often want mortgage rates to be high because it hurts first time homebuyer affordability, and then it keeps the rents high and it keeps the occupancy high. And then you and I see we both own real estate. We also look to opportunistically put more in our portfolio. Well then we want rates to be high in a sense and low in a sense too. So you might have relative neutrality, feeling aloof about it all because you're thinking about it from both sides. But in any case, we can always predict the future. But the one thing that you know for sure is what you have now. A lot of people don't optimize their potential for what they have now. Instead, they speculate about the future. Now, one thing a lot of people have now is so many Americans are still loving their 3% and 4% mortgage rates they locked in 2 or 3 years ago, and they're refusing to give it up. However, over the past two years, when the number of real estate listings were at historic lows, a lot of life changing events have occurred in the past two years 7 million newborn babies with a need for a larger sized home and a desire to get out of the starter home.   Keith Weinhold (00:05:11) - Also in the last two years, 3 million marriages, including some of those marriages, are among older couples who now need to sell a home that can help solve the market. And then, of course, most home sellers. They also become home buyers. Next, they need another place to live. So home sellers, they often don't add a net one to the supply. We had a million and a half divorces, 7 million Americans turning 65 years old that might want to trade down during the retirement years and also during the last two years. Consider that there were 4 million deaths and 50 million job changes, some of those inconsequential, while others with fundamentally changed commuting patterns. So the point here is that life moves on. For some, though still a minority, but a growing minority, it is time to give up the three and 4% mortgage rate. Still not enough of them, but for better or worse, that is what it's going to take to move this market and put some available supply out there.   Keith Weinhold (00:06:18) - Now, today we have apparently finally just come off this period where home price of. Affordability had hit 40 year lows for 40 years for decades. Again, with low affordability, you dislike that if you're a home buyer or seller, you might feel neutral about low affordability as a landlord or a real estate investor because it makes your new purchases less affordable. But it keeps your renters as renters when you buy that income property. From an affordability standpoint, the very best time to buy was 2013. Yep, 2013 is when prices hadn't fully recovered from the GFC and mortgage rates had fallen dramatically. Now, to open up that range in years, from an affordability standpoint, it was just a sensational time to buy a home or property from 2009 to 2021, just historically extraordinary, that sensational affordability level during that decade or so, 2009 to 2021, that added to the exceptional rise in home values over end since that time. But yeah, a few months ago, affordability reached its worst level in 40 years and it has since improved.   Keith Weinhold (00:07:43) - I mean, 40 year lows in affordability reach then in 1984 and what happened in 1984, that is when Ronald Reagan defeated Walter Mondale for his second presidential term. Steve Jobs launched the Macintosh personal computer. John Schnatter opened the first Papa John's store in Indiana. LeBron James was born in 1984, and on television running were The Cosby Show and The Dukes of Hazzard. Hey, if you were alive then and you watch those shows, um, I know you wouldn't confess to watching Charles in Charge back then, and you'll never get back those socially redeeming hours that you spent watching Punky Brewster, and you would not admit to doing that either. What is this show, the Jeffersons still on TV in 1984? Look into that. Yeah. You know, that was kind of a real estate ish show. The deluxe apartment in the sky. Yes. It was on then. Yeah. Sherman Hemsley, Isabel Sanford Q that up.   Speaker UU (00:08:55) - Where we're moving on now? All up to this island, to a deluxe apartment in the sky.   Keith Weinhold (00:09:06) - Yeah, they even had the episode where the landlord came over and threatened not to renew their lease. I'll tell you. Has there ever been a television show in history where the landlord was depicted as a good guy? I mean, a landlord in television, they're always cast is a money hungry bad guy that won't fix anything, or is just trying to unscrupulously kick out the tenant, a slack jawed slumlord, every single time. I never really understood that show's theme music, either Beans or Burden on the grill or something. Let's get back to mortgage loans. Understand this. It might be in a way that, okay, you've never thought about it before. It's the power of leverage in borrowing. Now, you probably won't hold any 30 year fixed rate loan all 30 years in reality, but they'll make this effect clear. Let's just act like you have done this on a property. Now the median home price is near 400 K today. But what was it not 40 years ago, but in this case 30 years ago? All right.   Keith Weinhold (00:10:14) - So 1994, per the Fred numbers, which are sourced from the census and HUD, it was 130 K. Yes, a 130 K median priced home in 1994. So then if you put a 20% down payment on that property, you'd have a loan principal balance of 104 K. Now imagine it was an interest only loan somehow, and you still just owed a 104 K balance on that home today, whose median price is up to 400 K. Well, that 104 K. That just seems like a little math that you could almost swat away. I mean, this is how inflation makes the numbers of yesteryear feel tiny. But now if you're 104 K loan were an amortizing loan and the principal were being paid down to hopefully all principal pay down made by the tenant. During all those years, mortgage rates were 9% back then. So if you were making the final payment today on what's now still a median priced home, today your mortgage payment would just be 837 bucks a month. It feels like nothing. Inflation benefited you both ways on the total principal balance and the monthly payment.   Keith Weinhold (00:11:35) - Just feeling lighter and lighter and lighter in inflation adjusted terms now. And if your mortgage rate were 6% on that property, your payment would only be 623 bucks. You might have refinanced to something like that. I mean, 623 bucks. That is lower than the average new car payment today of 726. But if you had not gotten that loan back in 1994 and instead would have paid all cash for the 130 K property, were you 130 K all cash that was put into the property back then? Well, that would have had the purchasing power of today's approximately 400 K reflected in the price of today's median priced home. But to take it back ten years further to 1984, the George Jefferson year, the median home price was 80 K and your loan would be 60 4k. I mean, these numbers feel like little toys or almost lunch money or something. So this is the power of optimizing your borrowing and perhaps but not quite maximizing your borrowing power because that does risk over leverage. That is the inflation profiting benefit that you're feeling right there.   Keith Weinhold (00:12:59) - Coming up in just a few minutes, the president of one of the most prominent national mortgage companies for investor loans will be here with me. We're going to talk about mortgage rates some more, the overall temperature of the mortgage market. And I expect that she'll give a firm mortgage rate prediction for where we're going to be at year end, because she's done that with us before. They see so many investor loans in there at their lending companies. They've really got a great pulse on the market. We have set up the makeshift gray studio again for yet another week. Here is this week I'm in Nevada, where I will be the best man at my brother's wedding. I have been on the road a lot lately. That's what a geography guy like me does. Gotta get out and see the world. Life is meant to be lived, not postpone. Before we discuss both general and some intermediate Murray's concepts shortly. If you happen to be new to real estate investing. And you just like to listen to that one episode that tells you, step by step, how to get started and how to build your credit score and make an offer on a property, and best navigate the inspection process and the property appraisal inside the management agreement and more.   Keith Weinhold (00:14:15) - You can find that on get Rich Education podcast episode 368. It's simply called How to Buy Your First Rental Property. More next. I'm Keith Reinhold, you're listening to get Rich education. You know, I'll just tell you, for the most passive part of my real estate investing, personally, I put my own dollars with Freedom Family Investments because their funds pay me a stream of regular cash flow in returns are better than a bank savings account up to 12%. Their minimums are as low as 25 K. You don't even need to be accredited for some of them. It's all backed by real estate and that kind of love. How the tax benefit of doing this can offset capital gains and your W-2 jobs income. And they've always given me exactly their stated return paid on time. So it's steady income, no surprises while I'm sleeping or just doing the things I love. For a little insider tip, I've invested in their power fund to get going on that text family to 66866. Oh, and this isn't a solicitation.   Keith Weinhold (00:15:24) - If you want to invest where I do, just go ahead and text family to six, 686, six. Role under the specific expert with income property, you need Ridge Lending Group and MLS for 256. In gray history, from beginners to veterans, they provided our listeners with more mortgages than anyone. It's where I get my own loans for single family rentals up to four plex's. Start your pre-qualification and chat with President Charlie Ridge. Personally, though, even customized plan tailored to you for growing your portfolio. Start at Ridge Lending group.com. Ridge lending group.com.   Speaker 3 (00:16:12) - Hi, this is Tom Hopkins, and I can't tell you how smart you are to be with get rich education and make these ideas you.   Keith Weinhold (00:16:32) - What is the future direction of mortgage rates? How do you qualify for more mortgage loans at the best terms with the lowest interest rates, and Americans have at near record equity levels in their properties? So what's the best way to access that equity yet? Keep your low rate mortgage in place. We're answering all of that today with a company president that's created more financial freedom through real estate than any other lender in the entire nation.   Keith Weinhold (00:16:57) - That is, the top tier and eponymous ridge lending group is time for a big welcome back to Charlie Ridge. Keith, you flatter me. Thank you very much.   Caeli Ridge (00:17:07) - I'm very happy to be here, sir. Good to see you.   Keith Weinhold (00:17:09) - Well, you help us here because debt and loan are our favored four letter words around here at gray. Can you help us efficiently optimize them both, Charlie? Interest rates have just been on so many people's minds. Shortly after, they had their all time low in January of 2021, and they since rose and then have settled down. Charlie, I've been trying to think through myself why people seem to put this over emphasis on the interest rate now. It's surely important. It is your cost of money. But the way I've thought that people overemphasize the rate is because maybe people love to discuss the direction of interest rates, even more so than real estate prices in rents is because prices and rents nearly always go up in interest rates can go up and down. So therefore it's maybe more interesting for people to talk about.   Keith Weinhold (00:17:57) - I also think about how rates sort of tap into that human fear of loss by paying interest, trumping the triumph of gain through cash flow or appreciation. And then maybe as well, it's because higher mortgage rates, they mean higher rates of all types which permeate into all of one's life's debt. So these are my thoughts about why people maybe put an over emphasis on mortgage interest rates. What are your thoughts?   Caeli Ridge (00:18:23) - I'm sure there's probably something to that. And you're right, Keith. Interest rates are always the hot topic. Everybody wants to talk about interest rates. I think that overall though, it is a lack of education and there's a psychology to it. You and I have talked about interest rates at nauseam over the years, and I do understand, but I think you and I agree, because we live in this space and we're constantly looking at the math. They are probably third or fourth on the list of priorities. When you're deciding on if this investment is valid. For fitting into my goal box, I think it's more about getting information out there and informing the masses about interest rates, and doing that math to make sure that they're not just pigeonholing themselves into keeping a 3% interest rate, or not expanding their portfolio because they're afraid of giving up what they have and not really realizing the power of the equity, the tax deduction, the rent increases.   Caeli Ridge (00:19:15) - All of those variables are often ignored when people start talking about interest rates, until you start to have that reasonable, rational conversation that helps them identify what the math is. Because the math won't lie, right? The math will not lie.   Keith Weinhold (00:19:29) - Yeah, that's right. Things more important than interest rate with an investment property might be the price you're paying for that property, or the level of rent that's there, or even maybe knowing you already have a good property manager that you trust in that market where that property is. But of course, rates matter somewhat. Now we're going to get a future looking prediction from you later. But your last mortgage rate prediction, Charlie, you may not remember the details of it. It was made here on the show in November of 2022. That's when rates were 7%. Back at that time, you said that rates should keep climbing but at a slower pace, and that happened. And you predicted the peak by spring of 2023 of 7.625%. What happened is in October of 2023, they hit 7.8% per Freddie Mac.   Keith Weinhold (00:20:17) - So you almost completely nailed it because most everyone believes that that was the peak for this cycle. And if so, you're within a few months in just 2/10 of 1% of identifying the peak.   Caeli Ridge (00:20:32) - Thank you Keith. I appreciate that acknowledgement. I get it right a lot. My crystal ball has been broken several times over, especially the last couple of years, so I'll want to acknowledge that too. I pay attention to the fed and as a good friend of mine is always saying, don't fight the fed if you are listening to what they're saying, actually listening to the words that are coming out of their mouths, it's not too terribly hard to kind of predict where we're going to be in certain milestones of any given year. So I do have a good prediction for this year. We'll share later. As you said, rates are not completely irrelevant. I just want to impress upon your listeners that they really should be looking at the investment holistically, and not just laser focused on that interest rate. There's more to it.   Keith Weinhold (00:21:15) - That was excellent. You have more audacity than me when it comes to predicting interest rates. It's a business I typically stay out of, so I'm going to outsource that to you later. I'll predict things like real estate prices, but I think rates are notoriously difficult. And what's happened with rates now that they have come off their peak substantially from back in October of 2023. What's happened with the refinance business, is that something that's picked up again there?   Caeli Ridge (00:21:39) - Yeah, we're starting to see a bit more. I would say that last year refi numbers were down right for obvious reasons. But we are seeing some more business in the refinance department. I think depending on the individual and largely the strategy of the investment, the long term versus the mid-term versus the short term, we're seeing a little bit more on the refi side for the short term rentals than we are in the long term. But overall, yes, I would agree that they're starting to pick up. I may mention to Keith it might be useful for the listeners.   Caeli Ridge (00:22:06) - So while I agree, we've seen that interest rates started on their descent, which was great news, everybody was excited to see that. We're still finding that the points that are being secured or paid on, especially investment property loans, are still on the high end of the spectrum. And for those that aren't aware of the why behind that, how might be important. Just to mention that when we talk about mortgage backed securities, the overall servicing of these mortgage backed securities that are bought and sold and traded on on the secondary markets, they're pretty smart in forecasting when rates are high, what happens to those mortgages? When they come back down, they start to refinance, right? They start to pay off. And the servicing rights of these loans take 2 to 3 years before they're even profitable. So the servicers and the secondary markets know that they have to charge those extra points to hedge their losses, because when the loans that they're paying for and servicing today are going to pay off in six months or 12 months, they're going to be at a loss.   Caeli Ridge (00:23:01) - If it takes them 24 to 36 months to be profitable. That's why investors are seeing especially investors are seeing extra points being charged on the loans that they're securing today.   Keith Weinhold (00:23:12) - Oh, that's a great explanation. And really, this is because there's no prepayment penalty associated with residential mortgage loans in the United States typically. So therefore, the person that's on the back end of these loans, the investor there needs to be sure that they're compensated somehow when one goes ahead and maybe refinances out of their loan at a presumably lower interest rate, maybe in as little as 12 months or so.   Caeli Ridge (00:23:39) - Yes, sir. Exactly right. Yeah. And prepayment penalties on conventional. There are no prepayment penalties on conventional. Just to clarify on a non QM product which of course we have to, you know, debt service coverage ratio products etc. on non-owner occupied those typically will have prepayment penalties. But the Fannie Freddie stuff, the GSE stuff no prepay ever.   Keith Weinhold (00:23:57) - Now the rates have come down presumably off their peak in this cycle. You know, I think a lot of people wonder about all right now, what's a prudent way for me to harvest my equity since we have near-record equity levels in property and yet keep my low rate mortgage in place? I think a lot of people don't even understand that you can do that and take a second mortgage to access some of that dead equity.   Keith Weinhold (00:24:20) - What are your thoughts?   Caeli Ridge (00:24:21) - I love a keylock in general. We do now have one of our newer product lines is a second lien lock. We have two options there. Both of them cap at 70% LTV. That's combined loan to value. So all you need to do to figure out what you're going to have access to is take the value that you think the property would appraise for times 70% from that number, subtract the first lien balance, and that will give you what your line on a key lock. Secondly, and position you lock would be. And I love it.   Keith Weinhold (00:24:49) - All right. So therefore if one has 50% equity in a property they could access 20% more up to that 70% CLTV. That combined loan to value ratio between your first mortgage and your second mortgage, which might take the form of a keylock a home equity line of credit.   Caeli Ridge (00:25:07) - Perfectly said. We also have second lien he loans worth mention. He loan is really exactly the same thing as your first lien mortgage. It's a fixed rate.   Caeli Ridge (00:25:15) - Second it's just in second lean position 30 year fixed. Those go to 85% CLTV. So you get quite a bit more leverage. But the rates are going to be on the 1,213% range.   Keith Weinhold (00:25:27) - That's interesting. Tell us about some more of the trade offs between the key lock, where we typically have a fixed rate period in a floating period afterwards, and the he loan some more of those trade offs as we devise our strategy.   Caeli Ridge (00:25:41) - Yeah. The key lock is variable right. The interest rate can change. As you said. The reason I prefer the He lock, if the numbers made sense, is that you're only paying interest on monies that you're using at that point in time. So if you had $100,000 key lock and you're only using 20,000 of it for whatever investment purposes or whatever, then you're paying interest just on the 20 that he loan is exactly as you would expect. You're getting all of that money at once, and you will be paying interest on all of it, whether or not you're using it.   Caeli Ridge (00:26:10) - There's less flexibility on a key loan. While it does provide extra leverage, I do generally prefer that he lock.   Keith Weinhold (00:26:18) - Now, sometimes a question that I've asked myself in the past, Charlie, when I was new as an investor, is sort of why wouldn't I take a second mortgage? He lock or he loan? Because I don't necessarily have to draw against it, but it might be good for me to have it as an option just to be sure that it's there.   Caeli Ridge (00:26:36) - Absolutely. Especially the key lock, because like I said, I will not pay interest on anything you're not using. And to have it when the time comes, right. If you want to be prepared, which I think is huge. We both agree there. The one thing I would mention about that though, is oftentimes on the helocs there will be a minimum draw at closing. You can put it right back after closing, but chances are there's going to be a 50,000 or 100,000 minimum draw, depending on what the line limit is.   Caeli Ridge (00:27:01) - Maybe 75% of the entire limit is what the minimum draw would be. But again, you can put it right back after closing. So maybe you pay 30 days of interest on that before you're able to to stick it back in the lock. Otherwise, it's one of my favorite strategies for investors and having access to those funds when the time comes.   Keith Weinhold (00:27:20) - That's an interesting piece there. So you as an investor is you're devising your strategy as you're looking at the equity position in your own home as well as your rental properties. Maybe you're looking at a low rate of, say, you have a 4% mortgage loan, but you've had a bloated equity position, and you go ahead and you take out a second mortgage in any of the forms of Charlie is talking about. And that second mortgage has, say, a 10% interest rate. Well, you don't simply take the 4% on your first loan and your 10% on the second and average it and say, well, now I'm paying 7%. Of course, you have to wait those averages.   Keith Weinhold (00:27:56) - It's pretty likely that you have a higher mortgage balance on your first loan than your second loan. So depending on their balances, therefore, if your first mortgage has a 4% interest rate and your second mortgage has a 10% interest rate, you're blended rate might be something like five and a half.   Caeli Ridge (00:28:10) - Exactly right. And there's all kinds of tools and calculators online. If somebody wanted to check that out you can find them very easily. Just the weighted average of mortgage rates. And you can plug in your numbers. It'll tell you exactly if you're using this amount or this amount or whatever it is, what your weighted average would be.   Keith Weinhold (00:28:27) - Yeah, definitely important for you as an investor checking your arbitrage and your cash flow. Certainly, Charlie, I wonder now that we are in an environment finally where rates have actually fallen, how is the appetite for arms adjustable rate mortgages looked in there?   Caeli Ridge (00:28:44) - We're still on what's called an inverted yield from the 0809 housing and lending kind of debacle, we found ourselves in a place where adjustable rate mortgage or arm's actually priced in interest rate higher than a 30 year fixed, creating that inverted yield.   Caeli Ridge (00:28:58) - We have yet to see the correction of that. So we're still kind of in that place where depending on the characteristics of the transaction, the arm might be a higher interest rate. Maybe it's about the same as the 30 year fixed. If there is a scenario where the arm is lower, it might be an eighth or a quarter of a percentage point. So it's unlikely that we would recommend an arm over a fixed. There'd be have to be some very specific circumstances. If it's only a quarter point improvement to rate for a five year arm versus a 30 year fixed.   Keith Weinhold (00:29:26) - Charlie, you deal with so many investors in there, both newer investors and veteran real estate investors. So when we talk first about the new investors, are there any just sort of common obstacles to overcome that you see in there for people that are looking to get their first investment property?   Caeli Ridge (00:29:45) - I think they're why a lot of times we'll have investors come to us and really not even understand more than they just don't want their money in the stock market anymore, and they want to find another venue or another vehicle in which to create their investment freedom, their financial freedom through.   Caeli Ridge (00:29:59) - So I would say for brand new investors, really start to ask that question, what is your why? What is it that you want to get out of this? Do you want total replacement income of your ordinary income today? Do you love what you do for work and you just want supplemental income? How much does that income need to be? Does it need to be what you're making today? Can it be a little bit less? Does it need to be more based on what you expect your lifestyle to be? So lots of different questions to be asking yourself. So I would say that commonly just really understanding at least a baseline. And then we can start connecting some dots together and planting seeds that I talk about a baseline of, of what it is that you're hoping to accomplish through real estate.   Keith Weinhold (00:30:37) - So that's what you often see with the beginning investor. How about that repeat investor. Their obstacles to overcome that are common in there on expanding one's portfolio. Maybe that's a debt to income ratio threshold that one reaches and you need to strategize with them there.   Caeli Ridge (00:30:54) - Yeah, the debt to income ratio problem ultimately when you get there is probably a good problem to have, right when you're having to have conversations that way. I think that the obstacles to overcome is making sure that you have a good support team, and I think that would start with your lender, someone that has a multitude of loan products that aren't just one size fits all. I would say that we check that box very well, but strategizing. One of my favorite conversations with my clients is having those strategy one on one calls about their debt to income ratio and figuring out from a scheduling perspective, how can we maximize their deductions, because that's one of the beautiful things about real estate investing, right? Is that schedule E so maximizing over there without it taking you over certain thresholds to continue to qualify, there can be a weighted scale there as well. And those are the conversations that we have with our clients usually earlier in the year. But we're always looking at our client's draft tax returns. That's important.   Caeli Ridge (00:31:47) - Before you ring that bell, get us copies of your draft tax returns so that we can run the math, and we'll even show them how the pluses and minuses work. It's pretty interesting to most people. And then come up with a solution that says, okay, if you want to do this for 2024, here are our recommendations X, Y, or Z. And then they can make the informed decision that fits what their goals are for the year.   Keith Weinhold (00:32:08) - Yeah, these are the scenarios that a mortgage loan company that specializes in income property loans can help you with your future planning. How can you set yourself up considering your personal situation, your tax deductions, how much income do you want to show, and all those sorts of things to give you more runway to add income properties to your portfolio. And you do see so many scenarios in there and so many investors. Sometimes when you're here, I like to ask you to get a temperature of the appraisal market. What percent of appraisals are you seeing coming high on and what percent are coming in low? Approximately.   Caeli Ridge (00:32:43) - We're probably over 50% on the high, but not by any large margin. I'll see 10,015 thousand regularly over what we had expected in the actual value. Pretty commonly, just right on the money, right on the mark. I think it's real market specific, to be sure. I don't see that the short values come in all that much. If it is, generally it's probably because the investor is brand new, didn't unfortunately talk to us in advance. They were doing the BR method and they didn't get the right comps or have the right advice about what that RV might end up being. So they got trapped in a situation where they learned the hard way.   Keith Weinhold (00:33:21) - Interesting. I don't know that I remember that from the past, where more than 50% of appraisals have come in high. That pretends well for future valuations, at least here in the near term. All right, Charlie, well, we talked about your record with mortgage rate predictions here and how good that track record was. Why don't you let us know where you think mortgage rates are going to be by the end of 2024.   Caeli Ridge (00:33:45) - I do think that the rates are going to be higher for longer. Don't fight the fed, remember? Listen to what they have to say. I would preface this by saying that all of the indicators for inflation, except for one of them, have been hot to the side. That does not help us with interest rates. The employment jobs report, you've got the CPI, all these different metrics have come in hot where they're higher than what we would want to see them for that inflationary measure, where the feds have been extremely clear that they want to hit that 2% mark, where that number came from, I don't know. That's another conversation. There's only been one metric that actually worked to the rate environment to get it lowered, which is the PCE, the personal consumption expenditure. For those that aren't familiar with that acronym, I think they're going to be higher for longer. There's been a lot of headlines out there saying that I'm getting to a rate. I promise. I'm just going to to preface this first, that March might be the first reduction in the fed funds rate, which, by the way, remember, is not the same as a long term 30 year fixed mortgage rate.   Caeli Ridge (00:34:42) - There are links to them, but they are different. I don't think that's going to happen. I think that if we're going to see rates come down, the first fed funds rate reduction, probably sometime in June, is where I may put my predictions. And then by the end of the year, the interest rate, I'm going to put at 6.125 for 30 year fixed mortgages and non-owner occupied purchase with 25% down. That's my prediction.   Keith Weinhold (00:35:09) - You are on the record though, and it's so interesting, at least with what the fed does with rates generally. It's like an entire world where good news is bad news, right? If you've got great job growth and great GDP, well, that's bad news because they're probably going to keep rates high since those things tend to keep inflation high. It's like, what if you want the lowest mortgage rate, everyone in the world would be unemployed except you. You know, it's just so funny. I'm glad you said that. Yeah.   Caeli Ridge (00:35:36) - The worse the economy is, the better the rates are.   Keith Weinhold (00:35:38) - Yeah. That's right. You offer so many products in there, mostly to investors, but you have other ones that it's not just for buy and hold type of investors. It's for those that are doing better strategies like you mentioned in other strategies. Well, you tell us about all the loan types that you offer in there.   Caeli Ridge (00:35:54) - Yeah, we do have quite a few. Thank you for asking. So we start with the Fannie Freddie's. We call these the golden tickets. Everybody. Highest leverage, lowest interest rate. A lot of times the newer investors will start by exhausting those. There are ten per qualified individual. If you're a married couple, you can have up to 20, as you and I have talked about in the past, Keith. Beyond that, we've got something called Non-cumulative. QM stands for Qualified Mortgage. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are the definition of what a qualified mortgage is. So everything outside of that box of underwriting is now non QM. And non QM in and of itself is extremely diverse, not just for investors, for anybody, but within that subset of product you've got debt service coverage ratio where there is no personal income documentation.   Caeli Ridge (00:36:33) - It's all about the properties rents divided by the payment. We have bank statement loans in there. We've got asset depletion. So if you've got $1 million in an exchange, a stock exchange account, there's a formula that we can use to utilize that as income. Beyond that, we have short term bridge loans for those that are fixed and flipping or fixed and holding where you need cash for the purchase and the renovation or rehab. So we have second lien helocs. Those are newer to our product line. So I'm pretty excited about those. We touched on that. We have commercial loans for commercial property, commercial loans for residential if it were applicable. And then of course the all in one, which is a first lien Helocs still my favorite, but we've spent lots of time talking about that. So that's probably a good overview or at least abbreviated checklist of products we have.   Keith Weinhold (00:37:16) - And I've got investor loans in there myself or new purchases I've done investor loans in there myself or Refinancings. I mean, you're who I go to for my own loans and you're in nearly all 50 states, right? And these are the states where the property is not where the investor resides.   Caeli Ridge (00:37:34) - Yes, sir. Exactly right. We are in 48 states. We are not in New York or North Dakota. Otherwise we're going to be funding everywhere that they're looking to purchase, refi, sell, etc..   Keith Weinhold (00:37:45) - We'll let our audience know where they can learn more, because I know you offer a lot of good free tools, like something we didn't get a chance to talk about a first lien helocs all in one loan. Like for example, you have a simulator there when an investor can just go ahead and run through that. So we're one find all of those resources.   Caeli Ridge (00:38:03) - So check out our website. There's a lot of good information on there. Lots of video content free education. The simulator link will be on there. If you wanted to check out the comparison between what you have now, your 3% interest rate, or your 2.5% interest rate compared to this all in one. I'll tell you guys that I've run that scenario all the time, and people are very surprised when they see that this adjustable rate first line is beating the pants off of a 2.25% rate.   Caeli Ridge (00:38:26) - So check that out. Our community is in the website we meet every other Tuesday. It's called live with Charlie. That's Ridge Lending group. Com. Email us info at Ridge Lending Group. Com and then you can call us of course toll free at (855) 747-4343. The easy way to remember is 85574 Ridge.   Keith Weinhold (00:38:45) - Charlie Ridge. Informative as always. And brazen. With the mortgage rate predictions. You can learn more about how they can help you at Ridge Lending group.com. It's been great having you back on the show Charlie.   Caeli Ridge (00:38:58) - Thank you Keith.   Keith Weinhold (00:39:06) - Oh, yeah, there's such experienced pros in there. And as you can see, they offer nearly every loan type. In fact, there were so many that I almost asked her, do you even loan lunch money to elementary school kids? Uh, because, uh, because they've seemingly got a loan type for most every real estate investment scenario that there is primary residence loans as well. Helpful people over there at Ridge. In fact, I even visited their headquarters office and I was hosted by Charlie there one day.   Keith Weinhold (00:39:38) - See what they can do for you in there. They are real strategists in helping you grow your real estate portfolio, going beyond just what a typical retail mortgage company does. It helps people with primary residences. You can join their free community events too, and they've really expanded their educational offerings to a giant degree the past couple of years. Financially free beats debt free, and she helps bring it to life and make it real. So big thanks to Charlie Ridge at Ridge Lending Group. Until next week, I'm your host, Keith Wangled. Don't quit your day dream.   Speaker 5 (00:40:17) - Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get Rich education LLC exclusively.   Speaker 6 (00:40:45) - The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building. Get rich education.com.

Thanks to today's podcast sponsor, LoanCare. LoanCare has successfully navigated clients and homeowners through market change for 40 years. The mortgage subservicer is known for delivering superior customer experience through personalization and convenience. Its award-winning portfolio management tool, LoanCare Analytics™, supports MSR investors with a focus on customer engagement, liquidity, and credit risk. LoanCare is part of Fidelity National Financial, a Fortune 500 company and leading provider of services to real estate and mortgage industries.

If you've already bought your first investment property, you may recall the initial fear you had about managing it. And that was just one property. But many investors find out it's not that tricky, and quickly scale up once they've dipped their toes in the water. It can become addicting to feel the success of a good deal that brings you the kind of wealth and free time you can get from a growing investment portfolio. In this episode, you'll hear from someone who met her Fannie/Freddie loan limit but figured out how to get financing on many more properties. Elaine Stageberg now owns more than 200 single-family rentals with her husband Nick, and many more properties as joint ventures or within privately equity funds. Find out how she does it in this interview! Elaine is a psychiatrist, a mother of four, and the owner of a private equity firm. She reached financial freedom at age 30, and currently manages a portfolio of over one-thousand doors worth more than $300 million. She lives in Rochester, Minnesota, with her husband and four young children. If you would like help getting your real estate portfolio started or learning how to scale it, sign up for a free RealWealth membership at https://tinyurl.com/joinrealwealth958. You'll find hundreds of real estate webinars and articles to help you on your way, along with data on various rental markets, real estate professionals that can support you, and our experienced investment counselors who can answer your questions. And don't forget to subscribe to this podcast here: https://tinyurl.com/RWSsubscribe and leave a review! Thanks for listening! Links for our guest: Facebook Group, Real Estate at Scale: https://www.facebook.com/groups/reale... Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/blackswanrea... LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/8101... Elaine's Calendly: https://calendly.com/elainestageberg

Get our newsletter free here or text “GRE” to 66866. In this podcast episode, host Keith Weinhold introduces Scott Saunders, a successful real estate investor who shares his insights and experiences in building a portfolio of 64 single-family rental properties.  They discuss the advantages of investing in cash-flowing rental properties, the importance of focusing on cash flow in the early stages, and the benefits of single-family rentals compared to multifamily properties.  Scott also discusses his analysis of different markets for real estate investment and his approach to financing and leveraging his investments.  They emphasize the importance of seeking professional advice and using resources like GREmarketplace.com for wealth building. Timestamps: The advantages of single family rentals [00:06:22] Scott discusses the advantages of investing in single family rentals, including better cap rates, long-term fixed-rate financing, and the inherent demand for single family homes. Greater liquidity with single family rentals [00:08:31] Scott and Keith talk about the liquidity component of single family rentals, highlighting that even in a recession, people will still need a place to live and therefore be buyers of single family homes. Longer tenancy duration in single family rentals [00:09:34] The discussion focuses on how tenants tend to stay longer in single family homes and duplexes compared to larger apartment buildings, often due to factors such as larger square footage and the desire to be in a specific school district. The importance of cash flow at the beginning [00:11:34] Starting with cash flow-centric properties and gradually moving towards appreciation as the portfolio grows. Scaling up the portfolio with short-term targets [00:14:55] Setting 90-day targets to buy a specific number of properties, leading to significant progress in a year. Factors in selecting the next market to buy in [00:18:24] Considerations include having a communicative property manager and existing opportunities in a market rather than solely focusing on a good deal. The importance of relationships in real estate investing [00:19:18] Scott discusses the significance of having a good relationship with property managers and asset providers in different markets. Factors to consider when choosing a real estate market [00:20:18] Scott talks about the importance of factors such as job growth, a diversified economy, and an influx of people when selecting a market to invest in. Using inflation as a tailwind in real estate investing [00:23:54] Scott explains how he leverages inflation to his advantage by locking in assets today and using inflation to propel his investing forward. The importance of 30-year fixed rate financing [00:28:12] Scott discusses the benefits of locking in a 30-year fixed rate for financing and shares his experience during the COVID-19 pandemic. Using paid-off assets as collateral for future financing [00:29:11] Scott explains his strategy of paying off some properties to use them as collateral for obtaining loans for future investments. Managing properties and involving family in real estate business [00:31:19] Scott talks about using Excel to track his rental income and involving his daughter in managing the financials of his real estate business. The goal of acquiring lifestyle assets [00:36:34] Scott Saunders discusses his long-term goal of purchasing properties in Tuscany, Italy, Steamboat Springs, Colorado, and other locations for both enjoyment and return on investment. The importance of return on attention [00:38:01] Scott explains the concept of return on attention, which focuses on having the freedom to enjoy life without being constantly distracted by financial concerns. The impact of purchasing single-family rentals [00:40:07] Scott emphasizes the benefits of purchasing 5 to 10 single-family rental properties, which can provide economic freedom and significantly improve one's financial situation. The disclaimer [00:46:07] The speaker provides a disclaimer stating that the show does not provide specific advice and encourages listeners to seek professional advice. Introduction [00:46:35] The speaker introduces the show and mentions the website getricheducation.com as the home for wealth building. Resources mentioned: Show Notes: www.GetRichEducation.com/458 Scott Saunders' resources: ScottRSaunders.com Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Find cash-flowing Jacksonville property at: www.JWBrealestate.com/GRE Invest with Freedom Family Investments. You get paid first: Text ‘FAMILY' to 66866 Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review”  Top Properties & Providers: GREmarketplace.com Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Keith's personal Instagram: @keithweinhold   Complete episode transcript:   Speaker 1 (00:00:00) - Welcome to. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. A follower has built a multi-state portfolio of 64 single family rental properties. He'll tell us how he's doing it, how he finances them all, his management technique and his guiding success principles today on Get Rich education. With real estate capital Jacksonville. Real estate has outperformed the stock market by 44% over the last 20 years. It's proven to be a more stable asset, especially during recessions. Their vertically integrated strategy has led to 79% more home price appreciation compared to the average Jacksonville investor since 2013. GWB is ready to help your money make money and to make it easy for everyday investors. Get started at GWB Real estate agree that's GWB real estate.com slash.   Speaker 2 (00:01:00) - You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is Get rich education.   Speaker 1 (00:01:23) - Hey, welcome to GRE. From the tropical currents in the Gulf of Mexico to the icy waters of Hudson Bay across the Americas in 188 world nations, this is get rich education where we just reach the 5 million listener download.   Speaker 1 (00:01:37) - Mark, I am grateful to you for that. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. Hey, a little context before we chat with our listener guests about the architecture of how he's building this robust 64 single family homes portfolio in growing across nine US states Once in a while. I like to drop things back for just a minute in case perhaps you're new here and you wonder how do people buy so many rental homes like adding ten every year? How am I supposed to do that? Well, of course, your speed of growth is going to be predicated on your income and some other things. But the best long term single-family rental homes, they're not 500 homes. They tend to be more like 200,000 homes in areas that are not upscale but yet safe, where you use a 20 to 25% down payment. And if you're new here and you have an aversion to debt, you know, I think that the simplest, most reassuring thing that I can tell a newcomer about real estate debt in just one sentence is that in a cash flowing rental, the tenant pays all of the debt for you, the principal, the interest, no matter what the interest rate is, all the operating expenses.   Speaker 1 (00:02:51) - And then a little on top of that called cash flow. Now, really, when you add the first few income properties to your life and you think about protecting your time, think about how that is a surrogate, a substitute to adding a part time job that can be a rather circuitous way of going about life, because what you really want is the income, not the job or not the lost time. So therefore add properties, not jobs. Most people think of financial improvement is cutting expenses. It is not. It is adding income. Then those the triadic income, many times they look to add a part time job. But I brazenly posit that income producing property is the way. And what do they call Ryan Seacrest the hardest working guy in show business? I guess if you wanted to, you could have as many part time jobs as Ryan Seacrest. Prepare yourself for drama on this stage.   Speaker 2 (00:03:54) - This is American Idol.   Speaker 1 (00:04:00) - Yeah, Ryan Seacrest. He will also become the Wheel of Fortune host starting next year along with the daytime talk show and being a producer and whatever else he does.   Speaker 1 (00:04:10) - I'm not really up on the latest. But yes, you want to have fewer jobs than Ryan Seacrest now speaking to your ROI, your return on time invested. You could get 64 single family rental homes like our guest today, and yet do it the wrong way. The wrong way might be say you live in a certain metro area and you buy all the properties just in your home metro so that the properties are spread, say one hour apart. That way you rationalize that you could self-manage, well, gosh, you'd be running all over the place. You'd have scores of tenants that could tax you. You'd almost be living at Home Depot, and after all that, you would still not be diversified because you'd only be in one metro market. Plus, how would you really ever get away on, say, a vacation? So that's probably not what you'd want either. Let's talk to our listener guest Scott, today and learn about how he does it. Here with me today is a great listener. Don't quit your day dream letter reader to discuss growing his Single-family rental portfolio.   Speaker 1 (00:05:22) - He's based in Colorado and he specializes in real estate in tax law. In fact, he often teaches real estate law to attorneys. He's a single family real estate investor that owns 64 single family rentals and four duplexes. So therefore, he owns 72 doors, 64 of which are single family rentals. And he owns those properties across nine different states Tennessee, Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Ohio, New Mexico, Colorado, Kansas and Arkansas. Higher mortgage rates aren't slowing him down as he's added six of those single family rentals this year. He's also a member of a Washington, D.C. based public policy organization that represents real estate interests. So he's really involved. He advocates for investor friendly tax policies with Congress. He's got a lot going on in his life. Hey, it's great to welcome on to Scott Saunders. Hey, Keith, Great to be with you. I'm a longtime follower and you have so many great nuggets of wisdom that you share, and it's just great. To visit with you for a few minutes.   Speaker 1 (00:06:22) - So thanks a lot. I appreciate that so much, Scott. Now, in the real estate world, there are pros and cons between single family rentals and larger apartments. Apartments have a certain economies of scale advantage, but single family rentals have advantages that some people overlook. So talk to us about why you like single family rentals so much. Happy to do that. I think single family rentals are, first of all, a great entryway to get into investment real estate. But some people kind of springboard. They get into single family and then they want to go into duplexes, four Plex apartments, Single family is an asset class. You know, if you just look at it, it has so many advantages. The cap rate on a single family is typically better than a lot of commercial buildings right now. You can lock in long term fixed rate financing. So even if the rate's a tad higher, you go into an apartment building or commercial, you've got to refinance. And as we all know right now in the marketplace, there are some commercial properties that are facing some significant distress because they're having to refinance at higher rates.   Speaker 1 (00:07:29) - Single family, you lock it in for 30 years and fix that. You've got buyer.   Speaker 3 (00:07:34) - Pool. I can sell a single family to an investor or a homeowner. So there just are a lot of advantages and maybe even just at the most basic level, we all need to live somewhere, right? And so a choice of an apartment or a single family. So many people like the freedom, the room, the convenience, the yard, the garage that comes with a single family. So I just think there's a lot of inherent demand where people want to be in that type of property, either as a renter or a homeowner. So I'm a big fan of buying a single family home, buy another one, you know, and just continue scaling in that niche. I call it Get Rich in a niche, right? And that's the single family rental niche.   Speaker 1 (00:08:16) - Sure. I had some apartment buildings that I sold recently that had balloon loans that were about to expire. And you mentioned the liquidity component where you have greater liquidity with single family rentals regardless of when it is in the cycle.   Speaker 1 (00:08:31) - Even if it were a recession, borderline depression, people will be a buyer because they need a place to live. But a person doesn't always need to invest in an apartment building regardless of where we're at in the economic cycle.   Speaker 3 (00:08:45) - Absolutely. Well, smart timing on your part to kind of see where those loans are going. And I think that there's a good time to maybe redeploy that capital somewhere else. So I like single family, and I think you can really grow and scale a portfolio. I mean, think of it this way, Keith. What if I needed to raise some cash? What if I had a medical need? I could unload a single family home or two right away. Now, I know from listening to your teaching, you'd say, don't sell it, refinance it. Right, harvest that equity. And that would be my first bet. But if I needed to generate cash, it's not that hard to unload some smaller single family rentals. And within a matter of a few months I could liquidate that and get the cash.   Speaker 3 (00:09:26) - Some apartment buildings, you know, in some markets it could take a long time to find the right buyer in some places.   Speaker 1 (00:09:34) - Now, during that whole time on a single family rental, you mentioned the cap rates. Oftentimes single family rentals are more profitable than what an investor projects. And one reason is that greater tenancy duration tenants tend to stay in single family homes and duplexes longer than they do a larger apartment building. Oftentimes it's because it feels like their own single family homes just tend to have more square footage, which lends to having larger families. We have a larger family. It just tends toward people wanting to stay longer and not uproot, and they get invested in things like buying to be in a certain school district, for example, where more single family homes tend to be than apartment buildings.   Speaker 3 (00:10:18) - Absolutely. You know, you bring that up. My very first investment years ago was a fourplex, kind of a C class neighborhood. And when I bought it, I naively write. I look back at it now, I thought, well, if this is fully occupied, look at what the money will make.   Speaker 3 (00:10:33) - The reality was there was a lot of turnover at that particular area. People came and went. It wasn't the top of the line. It wasn't a top tier neighborhood. And so I found that I was always chasing people and it was never in my case, fully occupied. And that tenant turn, that's expensive, as you well know. When you turn tenants, you have lost rent. You got to fix it up. So a single family home. I've had properties that my longest one I had attended stay in one for 15 years. I don't think you're going to find that in a multifamily property.   Speaker 1 (00:11:06) - Yeah, that really is rather unlikely. I know in that first fourplex you bought, you tended to do some things where later you learned that those were mistakes, like doing some excessive landscaping and spending a lot on fencing and. For a nice driveway so that you get a better quality tenant. But sometimes you learn you can only attract a certain quality tenant based on the neighborhood that you're already in. That's why oftentimes it's better to buy a lesser property in a better neighborhood.   Speaker 1 (00:11:34) - For example. Looking back and we'll get into your journey in a bit about how you've added all these properties, but one takeaway that you've had is that it's better to focus on cash flow at the beginning, more so that appreciation. So therefore getting a Class B or C property, which you probably don't want to stoop too low, or you also might have a bad experience at the beginning. So talk to us about the importance of for many people think they want to start with cash flow centric properties at the beginning and then maybe new build appreciation ones later.   Speaker 3 (00:12:03) - I agree. I think when you go into an asset that produces a cash flow, it kind of gives you the fuel to start growing, right? You get some positive reinforcement, but it also gives you the capital to go out and buy more assets. So I think that. BK and maybe call it B to C plus starting there, you know, getting 250 to 300 an asset in cash flow, you get one of those, you get three, you're talking about $1,000, you've got six.   Speaker 3 (00:12:29) - Now you're 2000. And at that point, when you get to maybe 6 to 10 properties, the cash flow is now helping to contribute your down payment to go out and buy another asset. So I personally think you kind of start with that maybe as your gateway for your first 5 or 10, get some momentum and then maybe later. So we all know an A-class property in a great neighborhood with great schools. It might appreciate better long term. And so I lean towards building the cash flow on the front end and then moving over into more appreciation as the portfolio grows. So there are merits on both sides. There's not a right or wrong way to do it, but that I think gets your average investor with some momentum. You know, you want to create momentum, you want to start buying assets. And so the cash flow allows you to buy assets faster than waiting for appreciation to kind of carry you up. That rising tide lifts all boats saying that'll happen over time, but get the momentum with the cash flow to help augment and help you buy more assets quickly.   Speaker 3 (00:13:33) - I tend to lean towards that approach. Again, no right or wrong, Keith, I'll tell you, I've done it wrong. I started out buying some A-class, about five new homes, and now those have produced good appreciation, but I didn't have much cash flow off them, so I had a little modest cash flow. I do things differently looking back, but I'm still moving forward. Real estate corrects, right? It's like a bad haircut and not that I would really know, but you can get a bad haircut and give it a 4 or 6 weeks and it'll grow out in a way you go and it covers over any mistakes that Barber made.   Speaker 1 (00:14:07) - Yeah, real estate's very forgiving over the long term. I kind of think of real estate as a game of attrition as long as you buy, right? Even if there is a bit of a mistake or a stumble, when you have five simultaneous ways that you're paid, you're going to feel that sooner than later. Scott You've really done a great job of scaling up your portfolio.   Speaker 1 (00:14:30) - Last I checked, you were in nine different markets. I mentioned the nine states that you were in earlier and you have 18 different property managers now. Can you talk to us more about how you scaled that? You talk to us about how it might be best to get that snowball rolling sooner with cash flow, but how do you scale up and ramp up to where you're at today with 72 doors, 64 of them single family rentals?   Speaker 3 (00:14:55) - Oh, what I'll do, Keith, I'll share what I did to kind of get there. And I want to be candid with you and listeners of that. I probably made a mistake doing that. I don't think everybody has to be in that many markets, that many managers. So what I did, quite frankly, it sounds so simple. I said a 90 day target. So I would say I'm going to buy X number of properties. That was a do or die goal. It wasn't an annual goal. If I wanted to buy three in that 90 day period, I would make sure no matter what, I bought three assets.   Speaker 3 (00:15:26) - So what happened was I maybe bought in different states to get the job done. I had to buy quickly, right? I was focused on adding my numbers. So for me, having that short term target that I looked at every day in the morning and the night that gave me the focus. So I wasn't looking over three years. I was like, What do I need to do in the next three months? And I really applied everything to doing that. And so you figure if you do a three month period, you pick up three, but you do that every quarter, that's 12 new assets in a year. That's big progress in just annual time frame. So that's what I did. 90 day targets were the game changer for me. Now, you shared kind of the downside of that and that I'm probably over diversified, I would say probably in my level being in three, four states, half the states and maybe two thirds less property managers would be more. Just from a relationship standpoint. So that was a mistake.   Speaker 3 (00:16:25) - And, you know, I can correct for it Over time. I'll probably do 1030 ones out of some of the states and consolidate in areas that I like. But that was how I did it is I just identified a lot of Midwest type markets that are good cash flow markets. And when I saw an opportunity, I grabbed it a few of them. Keith I buy one and then the next door, somebody was doing a renovation next door. And there are a few streets, right? Three houses right next to one another as a result of that. So that's kind of been interesting. And then I also find is word got out that I was buying. I had people approach me and say, Look, I've got a package of properties. Would you like the whole package or part of the package? And so that helped me a little bit. So instead of doing one loan on three different properties three times, I do one larger loan purchase, three properties at once. And so it gave me a little bit of efficiency.   Speaker 3 (00:17:19) - Now that didn't happen on all of them, but over time I've been doing more of that. My last one this year I bought four assets in Tennessee from one seller as a package deal, and that makes it a little bit easier.   Speaker 1 (00:17:32) - Yeah, I want to get into that financing piece shortly, but I think the important thing is you acted, you jumped in and once you do that, more opportunities begin to present themselves. And not everyone does everything the right way. If you've got 18 property managers you're dealing with, which would be a lot. I mean, if you get one monthly email statement from property manager that's getting one a little bit more than every other day, if one would happen to do it that way. I've often talked about how three, 4 or 5 markets to be in that number probably is a good number where you have adequate diversification, yet it hasn't overcomplicated your life administratively at the same time. But with that in mind, Scott, as you're growing your portfolio, what makes you decide what market to buy in next? Oftentimes it's not the sort of thing that you think it will be, just like you had an opportunity to present itself.   Speaker 1 (00:18:24) - For example, if you buy in a market and you find that you have a really communicative property manager that you really like in that market, you might buy in that market where you know you've already got a good manager, for example, rather than just what appears to be a good deal on the surface. So what are some of the factors that go into what make you decide which market to select next?   Speaker 3 (00:18:43) - Scott I've done a lot of analysis and there are a lot of good markets. You know, one thing, there's no perfect market. You and I probably know 20, 30, 40 good markets where people can make money that have good growing economies, populations growing. There's pressure on rents and appreciation. So I've identified some that I like. Would you just alluded to is really one of the factors now, which is more of a relationship, right? I've consolidated over, so I have a good property manager in Memphis, Tennessee. I've got a great working relationship with them and then also a provider of assets.   Speaker 3 (00:19:18) - And so for me, I'm finding having that relationship makes things a little smoother. There's a trust factor when you manage remotely. I haven't seen most of my assets and I do very little in my own home state. So for me, it's really important that I can trust who I'm working with out of state. And so I find having that relationship makes me more likely to purchase more properties in that particular market because I've got that. So Saint Louis, Missouri is one market. Memphis, Tennessee is another. Those are some markets that I like. Now, some of them have great fundamentals. You know, Memphis, number one airport in the entire country, you've got a waterway, you've got a lot of highways that converge there. You've got a lot of industrial Nike's there, Amazon. So there are, you know, kind of a multitude of factors. You know, right now in Memphis, you've got the blue oval development, which is the Ford. They're going to build battery trucks. And I think it's a $10 billion plant they're putting in.   Speaker 3 (00:20:18) - Well, that's going to be a huge draw for jobs. So I tend to look for jobs, a diversified economy. I like to see an influx of people coming into the market. So that's the big macro. When I look at my investment, I try to get fairly close to that 1% rule if I can. You know, I don't have to hit it perfectly, but that's kind of a decent benchmark on an asset. I like to get fairly close.   Speaker 1 (00:20:44) - You're listening to Get Rich Education. We're talking with super real estate investor on Single-family turnkey Homes, Scott Saunders. When we come back, including how did he do it with the financing and what does he do to manage all this? You're listening to Get Resuscitation. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. You know, I'll just tell you, for the most passive part of my real estate investing personally, I put my own dollars with Freedom family investments because their funds pay me a stream of regular cash flow in. Returns are better than a bank savings account up to 12%.   Speaker 1 (00:21:18) - Their minimums are as low as 25 K. You don't even need to be accredited. For some of them, it's all backed by real estate and that kind of love. How the tax benefit of doing this can offset capital gains and your W-2 jobs income. And they've always given me exactly their stated return paid on time. So it's steady income, no surprises while I'm sleeping or just doing the things I love. For a little insider tip, I've invested in their power fund to get going on that text family to 668660, and this isn't a solicitation If you want to invest where I do, just go ahead and text family to six six, 866. Jerry listeners can't stop talking about their service from Ridge Lending Group and MLS 42056. They've provided our tribe with more loans than anyone. They're truly a top lender for beginners and veterans. It's where I go to get my own loans for single family rental property up to four plex. So start your prequalification and you can chat with President Charlie Ridge personally, though even deliver your custom plan for growing your real estate portfolio.   Speaker 1 (00:22:30) - Start at Ridge Lending Group. This is real estate investment coach Naresh Vissa. Don't live below your means.   Speaker 2 (00:22:45) - Grow your needs.   Speaker 1 (00:22:46) - Listen to Get Rich Education with Keith Weinhold. Welcome back to Get Rich Education we're talking with Scott Saunders get rich education listener owner of 64 single family rental properties. He really loves single family and he's still buying now. But Scott, some people have slowed down their buying with higher mortgage rates. They're not adding properties nearly as quickly. But still, really the question I asked myself is where could I invest better dollar today than in rental property? Of course, inflation debases that debt for us, and then when inflation and interest rates drop, I can refinance. And you've added just about 60 properties in the last four and a half years. So tell us about that.   Speaker 3 (00:23:39) - I have added a lot of them recently and it started again with setting those goals and I'm keeping up the momentum now. You know, I realized the rates have changed. This is still a good time to be a buyer If you're in certain markets.   Speaker 3 (00:23:54) - There are good purchases out there. So I'm able to negotiate a little better with sellers, maybe get a little concession where they'll give a couple points towards my rate or the closing cost. I couldn't get that and the go go days, people are doing that. And the way I look at it is I'm really making an investment now in an asset, right? What is a single family home? It's just a bunch of commodities glass, bricks, wood. And with inflation, we know commodities are going to go up. So I'm locking in that today and I'm going to really use inflation as a tailwind to propel my investing forward, whether that's with rents and appreciation, whether it's debasing my good business debt, I'm using that as a tailwind. And I'll tell you my personal opinion, Keith, I'll go on record on this. People are going to kick themselves a few years down the road when rates go down, whenever that is for not purchasing now, because when rates go down, it's going to create more demand.   Speaker 3 (00:24:54) - And I think you're going to lock in today's pricing now and somewhere rates will change. I don't know when, but nobody has that crystal ball. When they do, prices are going to pop up, I think, at that time. And so people are like, oh, I should have bought back in 2023. I don't want to do the woulda, coulda, shoulda. I'd rather make smart baby steps now. Just keep buying chunking along slow and steady and locking in assets today that I know five, ten years from now, my future self is going to be glad that I took action today.   Speaker 1 (00:25:30) - Now, I know that you, the listener, must be thinking, yes, I do want to buy more property here. But how to Scott add so many properties so fast and that really guides us into the financing. What do you do for the financing of these properties? Because of course for single people, those golden ticket Fannie Freddie loans run out at ten.   Speaker 3 (00:25:52) - One of the biggest things is getting over that hurdle of those lower rates.   Speaker 3 (00:25:57) - So I do what's called non QM or what they're also called DSR financing, where the load is made based upon the asset and the cash flow the asset produces. So these are going to be a little bit higher rate, a touch higher. But once you get into them and you get comfortable, you realize this is what all the big players do. People that buy commercial properties, that's how they buy them. So I'm using a rate that's a touch higher, but now I've got a great working relationship. I have one particular lender. I've done 40 loans with them directly, not with the broker. I go direct to the lender, save some money, and I'll literally email over to that lender at night. I'm buying just one of their contract on two more assets, and it's really easy to do the loan. So I find what's called non QM, which stands for Non-qualifying Mortgage, that type of financing. I actually prefer it. It's easier. I don't have to provide every financial statement, you know, updated within the last 30 days.   Speaker 3 (00:26:58) - I actually find it's an easier approach. And as long as you look at the numbers and you still have positive cash flow. So today maybe I'm positive $200 where a year and a half ago I might have been positive 3 or 350. So it takes me five assets to get another thousand in cash flow today where I could have done that and maybe three or so a little while back. Okay, I'm just buying more assets, right? I win with that because I'm still locking in more of those commodities in those assets. And so I just that inflation raised that up over time and I just get the benefit of it. So now instead of fighting against inflation, I'm using inflation to move me forward.   Speaker 1 (00:27:41) - About dcr loans, debt service coverage ratio loans which are used more commonly in the five plus apartment space area. That is one option for one after they run out of their ten golden ticket Fannie Freddie loans that are at the best rates in terms. Can you tell us more about those terms of the hours? Are you getting a longer term fixed rate? Do you need to put a greater percent down for those?   Speaker 3 (00:28:08) - Most of mine are relatively close to a conventional loan.   Speaker 3 (00:28:12) - You can get those with 20% down. I have chosen in some cases to put down maybe 25%, but I'm getting in almost all situations 30 year fixed rate financing. To me, I want to fix that debt service and have it locked in. So that's really important. So I'm a big believer in 30 year fixed rate. I did have during Covid right at the beginning and I had some assets under contract. You couldn't get a loan. It was very difficult. March, April, May and I had deals closing. Then I had lender that I had to get the lender that they required me to put down 40%. So I had to put a bigger down payment to get it done. At the time, Keith, I was like, Oh, I'm not getting as much leverage. My money's not working quite as hard. Now, that was several years ago, and a few of those because they were smaller assets. I've got little small loans on them where and I want to be careful because I know your view on debt.   Speaker 3 (00:29:11) - I'm going to be paying some of them off, not to have them free and clear, but to use those as a resource as collateral. So I can go to a bank and say, Look, I'm going to pledge this collateral. Let's say ten homes that are free and clear, you give me a loan and now I'll use that loan to do some other things, probably like hard money, loans, private lending. So I'm going to use those paid off assets as a tool for me to do some financing, some creative financing deals in the future. So it's a means to an end. It's a stepping stone to go a little bit deeper and use the banks money for me to make more money in the future. So that's kind of what I'll be doing there.   Speaker 1 (00:29:51) - All right. It sounds like you still want to keep most of them leverage. Are you talking about the advantages of having a few of them paid off and therefore really so that you can borrow against the value of those paid off properties? So really, you're just paying them off to effectively use leverage again in a different way?   Speaker 3 (00:30:08) - Precisely.   Speaker 3 (00:30:09) - That's exactly what I'm going to do is bundle those together and those become collateral. So exactly. I'm going to relieve them maybe in a different fashion. So I am a huge fan of good business debt. It's one of those things is concepts. So you got to wrap your head around it at the beginning because we're beat into our brains that, you know, debt is bad, but good business debt is not only good, it's great. It allows you to multiply your efforts faster than you could with your own capital. So to take the bank's capital and use that to get ahead, that to me is is a smart move 100%.   Speaker 1 (00:30:50) - So you've got this robust portfolio spread across several different states. You've even admitted probably dealing currently with more managers than you even want to. And it makes one wonder, is there any particular type of management software that you use? Now, of course, each one of your individual property managers, 18 of them, they have their own management software. But how does that work? How do you manage all this? Do you really get 18 monthly statement emails from 18 property managers each month?   Speaker 3 (00:31:19) - I do actually get 18 different emails and statements a month.   Speaker 3 (00:31:23) - I'll tell you what I've done, Keith. I'm very low tech. I'll be honest. I use Excel to track things and what I've done, which is kind of a fun thing for me. My youngest daughter, who, believe it or not, actually owns. She bought her first single family home at age 16. She's been watching me. She actually helps me now track my rental income and work with the financials. So I've hired her in my real estate business. She now gets all the statements she puts in, puts everything into my spreadsheet and then runs the reports for me. So it's been kind of neat in that I get the data I need, but I'm also training my kid about real estate. And not only that, I actually include her on my emails, so she has a real estate specific email. When I reply to my property manager about an issue, I'll copy her so she sees my thinking how I do it. So I'm trying to be strategic, realizing I'm not going to be around forever.   Speaker 3 (00:32:21) - Someday my kids are going to get a pile of real estate and I want them to know what to do with it when they get it, that they walk into it and they're like, okay, I kind of know what to do versus selling it all off and then giving the money to Wall Street, which is I would hate to have that happen. So I'm. Try to bring them along.   Speaker 1 (00:32:41) - Despite the fact you use Excel. You talk about how you're relatively low tech. I'm, in fact, impressed with that because it demonstrates to me that, you know, the proper formulas to use in Excel and which numbers actually matter to drive your current and future investment decisions. So that actually tells me a lot that you really understand what's going on behind the scenes and you don't have it too automated. Also, when you're involved like this, which is a sense that you just cannot get being a stock investor where your profits are really coming from and where they're really not coming from. Having one of your children involved that is huge at building this legacy wealth piece like we talked about on the show last month and helping ensure that there is generational wealth in your family, like with your daughter.   Speaker 1 (00:33:26) - Now, she understands where it comes from and what it takes. So I absolutely love that piece. Scott We talk about what drives investment decisions. We talk about how you've acquired and you've held some properties. What about the time to sell? For example, I like to buy turnkey investments that already have the renovation done, or they're just brand new and oftentimes like to just hold them 7 to 10 years because in 7 to 10 years, in the last three years, it's been as short as three years, those properties have gone up in value enough where the leverage ratio was cut such that I either want to do a cash out refinance or a 1031 exchange, not get too emotional about properties, only hold them seven years, rarely if ever, more than ten years. What are your thoughts with the whole time and the duration?   Speaker 3 (00:34:09) - I'm fairly similar to you on that. I do. My preference is turnkey. That's what most of my portfolio is. So I'm buying stuff that's already been renovated after, you know, 10 to 15 years.   Speaker 3 (00:34:21) - And that window, that's when you're going to start to see roof issues, the furnace, the AC. So my plan would then be to do a 1031 roll out and get more turnkey. So let's say I take one single family home that might allow me to go out and buy 2 or 3 more single family homes, probably ten years max would be what I would be doing. And I did that. I rolled out A1A couple of years ago. I had one single family in Arizona exchanged out of it, and I bought four in Saint Louis, one in Memphis. I got a much better return on my investment. So to think of if you take my portfolio today, right in the 60s, if I can roll out of that and go up to, let's say 120 or 130, that's going to give me some significant scale and benefits. So that would be my plan. I'll never sell and pay the taxes. I always do it 1031 or I'll refinance to harvest equity.   Speaker 1 (00:35:17) - If you're a brand new listener and you don't know what a 1031 tax deferred exchange is, the short story on that is it basically allows you to roll your profits from appreciation into another property, either multiple properties or a larger property is what it usually is with you being able to 100% defer the tax.   Speaker 1 (00:35:37) - And there's no limit to the number of times you can do that. Therefore, it should become a tax free event. You can defer that tax your entire life by trading up with that. 1031 also called a 1031 like kind exchange. As you go along, I know that you've got some great philosophy, Scott. I mean, first of all, you're a goal driven guy, so you have these longer term goals. And you mentioned you also have these shorter term milestones, like a 90 day goal on your way to those longer term goals. For one that hasn't heard the acronym before, Goals should be smart, that is specific, measurable, achievable, relevant and time bound. That's what differentiates a goal from a wish. So tell us about your goals and how that drives this. Scott.   Speaker 3 (00:36:22) - My duals. I do every three months. I do have a short term goal and I've got some For this year. I'll probably pick up 15 properties. I think I'm halfway through the year. I'm on track, so I'll do that.   Speaker 3 (00:36:34) - I've got some long term goals. One of them just before I left on vacation a couple of weeks ago, I'm under contract on a property in Tuscany, Italy, so I can have what I call a lifestyle asset. So one of my goals would be to get a few lifestyle assets. I want to buy a place in Steamboat Springs, Colorado, enjoyed some of the year, rent it out other times. So one goal would be picking up a few of these. That would be something that I can enjoy and my kids can enjoy, but it also produced a return. So it's a twofer. I gave money on it and I get to enjoy it. That's a big long term goal of doing that. So Tuscany, I like to do a place in Sardinia, Italy, which is the most beautiful beaches, gorgeous. The mountains may be a place in Florida, so I like to pick up over the next few years, maybe a property a year in that category. That's just something that's fun.   Speaker 3 (00:37:25) - It doesn't make any sense to work really hard and save if you can't enjoy life, right? I mean, that's the whole goal is to get free where you can enjoy your time and enjoy spending time with the ones you care about. So I want to transition that way into Tastic.   Speaker 1 (00:37:42) - Yeah, spending time in Tuscany was part of perhaps the best week of my life personally, part of your philosophies. It's not just having tangible goals, it's you call something rather than an ROI in ROA, and it's that the return on a realisation that I talk about.   Speaker 3 (00:38:01) - Yeah, what that is, you know, so many people have heard of ROI, which is a return on investment and we kind of get bottlenecked around that, right? Looking at our return, you know, 7%, 8%, 1619 And there's a lot of focus. What I tend to do, and this actually came through a good friend of mine, Rick ROA, is return on attention. Yeah. Looking at our life from a time standpoint.   Speaker 3 (00:38:25) - So when we look at ROI, we're looking at money dollars return on attention. We're now measuring things in time, right? What do we have the free time to enjoy without having to be distracted with following the stock market every day? And is it up or down? Or what's the Fed doing? So return on attention to me is actually more important than the ROI. And I know we're on a podcast talking about real estate, so surely making wise investment decisions is important. But if I look at where I am in life, more important to me is my return on attention than my return on my investment. So I want to have my attention free that I can enjoy what's around me while I'm young enough and vibrant enough to enjoy it. So I just got back from travel and Saint Lucia had a wonderful time out there. I love to travel. I typically do an international trip probably every quarter or so. I'm taking my son to Morocco, did an African safari. We did Iceland swam with whale sharks last year.   Speaker 3 (00:39:30) - Portugal. I want to spend time with the people I care about and travel is a part of that and having my attention freed up so I can do that. That actually is a big principle. It's a big objective is having my time freed up and my attention freed up.   Speaker 1 (00:39:47) - Wealth is measured in time, not dollars. You and I sure do agree there. Scott is we're about to wrap up here. I know you often talk to people about the importance of taking action and just sort of getting those base hits and how do you think that people would have more economic freedom if they just purchased 5 to 10 single family rentals?   Speaker 3 (00:40:07) - Absolutely. And it's not that hard, right? You get over the first one's the hardest and then you get a little momentum after that, Right. The first one hard, the second one, you've just doubled the size of your real estate portfolio. You go to four, you quadrupled your first one. And I think the magic number to hit is get to five and add five assets.   Speaker 3 (00:40:28) - You typically have enough rental income coming in that it's pretty close to being self-sustaining. So if you have one vacancy, you're going to typically have pretty much enough rental income to do it. So getting to five and then pushing on to 10 or 15, that can change so many people's lives. Just that small thing for the average American. If you had ten single family rental homes, you'd be light years ahead of the people that are doing all the 401. And Wall Street racket stuff.   Speaker 1 (00:40:59) - That's so on point. Yeah, you are really doing the things. Scott, before I ask you how our audience can learn more about you, do you have any last thoughts? Anything else you'd like to discuss maybe that did not come up with scaling up this terrific Single-family rental portfolio and how that's enhancing your life.   Speaker 3 (00:41:18) - I'll give two quick tidbits to kind of wrap things up here. Keith, it's been great visiting with you. I've been a longtime follower and just love all the information you bring out and the resources, so it's great to visit with you in person.   Speaker 3 (00:41:30) - Two things. One, I would say use the tax code, use guys like Tom Lehrer write, read those books, figure out how to master the tax code. A lot of people don't do that. They're intimidated by taxes and the IRS go after that and it'll give you more capital to grow your portfolio. The other one, I would say, and I think you alluded to it, is don't be paralyzed by inaction. Don't do that analysis paralysis thing of is this good or not? My whole philosophy is I never try to hit a home run. I don't need the best performing investment. I just need a good investment. And you know, in a portfolio, I've some that have been stellar and I've had 1 or 2 dogs like anybody would. When you get a bunch of them, my feedback would be, if you're not in the game of real estate, put all your focus on to getting that first one and then jump to your second translated into action rather than overanalyzing. So on your show, you've got a lot of great resources of turnkey providers.   Speaker 3 (00:42:29) - In many of the markets that I'm in pick market, take action and jump in. You'll be so much farther ahead by taking action than by studying and running formulas and spreadsheets. Get into the game, buy the first property, buy the second push with some short term goals, and then all of a sudden you're using all of these economic forces to get ahead in life and they're not fighting against you. And I think what that does is now you're swimming downstream, so to speak, rather than fighting upstream. That's what all these inflationary forces that you talk about all the time do. So get in, start swimming downstream, join it. I want to see more people in America that have freedom and have some independence and are benefiting from the economic forces rather than getting crushed by those same economic forces.   Speaker 1 (00:43:21) - And it starts with just getting your first base hit. Well, this has been terrific, Scott. How can our audience learn more about you?   Speaker 3 (00:43:29) - I've got a website up. It's my name, so it's Scott R Saunders.   Speaker 3 (00:43:35) - Sanders And that's got a little more background. And I've got for people that are interested, I put together a course of how to kind of get into single family and scale it and grow it. So for those that is appropriate, I'm happy to be a resource in that department there at that website.   Speaker 1 (00:43:54) - Scott has been such a great chat. Our audience is going to benefit from it. Thanks so much for coming on to the show.   Speaker 3 (00:44:00) - It's been a blast. Thanks, Keith.   Speaker 1 (00:44:07) - Yeah, great stuff from Scott. We do a lot of things the same way as far as having remote managers in multiple markets. I've also never seen most of my properties in person, nor do I need to. We often buy multiple properties at once. I like to buy at least two single family rentals at a time to make things more efficient. But big picture, we are not postponing life and are traveling to great places. As I'm fond of saying, some delayed gratification is good, but the risk of too much delayed gratification is denied gratification, which is the road of the 401 plan, which is also known as a life deferral plan.   Speaker 1 (00:44:49) - Scott is currently meeting with our provider of Chattanooga Properties on Marketplace. It is rare to see Crest buying properties in Jerry Marketplace. I guess I'm actually not sure we might have to turn him onto it so that he can quit one of those part time jobs. He's got pretty cool part time jobs, though. He's not breaking his back like a longshoreman. Yeah. Jerry Marketplace. That is where you find the right properties that really are just never going to make it out onto the open market at all. And they're the ones that are conducive to this strategy. Lower cost properties that have a high ratio of rent income to a low purchase price, they're typically fully renovated with a tenant from day one where an experienced manager also manages it for you from day one, if you so choose. And it's free. Just creating one log in one time like thousands of others have, gives you access to nationwide providers. We've even got free coaching for you there if you so choose. Knowledge really isn't power in itself. Knowledge plus action is what's powerful.   Speaker 1 (00:45:56) - Get started at GRC marketplace.com until next week I'm your host Keith Winfield. Don't quit your day dream.   Speaker 4 (00:46:07) - Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of Get Rich Education LLC exclusively.   Speaker 1 (00:46:35) - The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building get rich education. Com.    

Today hosts Braden Cheek, Brian Duck and Joel Thompson discuss 9 of the most effective ways to finance commercial real estate deals. Time Stamps: 0:00 - Introduction 0:20 - What's new? 1:21 - Today's topic: 9 ways to finance your CRE deals! 3:18 - #1: Using local, regional banks. 7:02 - #2: HUD loans. 11:10 - #3: Fannie / Freddie financing. 15:44 - #4: Life company loans. 20:07 - #5: Commercial backed security loans. 24:39 - #6: Private equity. 26:09 - #7: Preferred equity. 29:29 - #8: Mezzanine debt. 32:59 - #9: Crowdfunding! *Be Sure to check us out on Spotify and Apple Podcasts for the Audio version of today's episode!** https://open.spotify.com/show/08KmNvqGV5HjmHUC8fLuce https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/how-to-invest-in-commercial-real-estate/id1543470290?itsct=podcast_box&itscg=30200 Links mentioned in this episode: www.TheCriterionFund.com www.HowToInvestInCRE.TV Invest.HowToInvestInCRE.com To sign up for our exclusive investor list, click below. https://www.thecriterionfund.com/join-our-investor-list

How would you like to reach your financial goals in half the time you planned?  Our guests today are doing just that. Sophie bought her first rental property when she was just 23 years old, thanks to having a Mom who encouraged her to buy real estate.  Sophie's husband Ben didn't know much about real estate when they got married, but they both had MBAs, and both worked at Northern California tech companies making a great income. They ended up with two rental properties in the Bay Area that didn't cash flow. In this episode, Sophie and Ben share how they used those negative cash flow properties to build a cash flow machine by investing out-of-state. They say they've reached their financial goals 15 years earlier than they had planned.  You can learn more about doing this for yourself by joining RealWealth. You'll find plenty of free educational material on our website. Our investment counselors can also refer you to experienced property teams who can help you get started in real estate. And please remember to subscribe to this podcast and leave us a review! Thanks for joining me on The Real Wealth Show! Kathy Fettke

Fannie and Freddie have a growing blacklist for certain properties that they won't lend to, but it's not public and it could surprise you when you're trying to close on a deal. The Los Angeles Daily News first reported on this, saying the government-sponsored enterprises are placing condos, associations, and co-ops on the list for a variety of reasons, including deferred maintenance. (1)   Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. Please remember to subscribe to this podcast and leave us a review.   The president of Philadelphia-based condo and co-op lending service provider CondoTek told the Daily News that the blacklist has now grown to more than 1,400 properties. Orest Tomaselli says just 16 months ago, there were only 900 properties on the list.   New Tighter Standards After Condo Collapse   Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac tightened their standards after the collapse of Champlain Towers South in Surfside, Florida. The catastrophic failure of the 12-story condo building resulted in the deaths of 98 people and $1B in property losses.    HOAs started seeing a new questionnaire months later at the beginning of last year. According to the Daily News, Fannie and Freddie are using data from this questionnaire to determine whether a property has deferred maintenance, structural issues, or a lack of funds or insurance to cover needed upgrades or repairs.   Concerns That Questionnaire Creates Liability   The questionnaire has been controversial. Other than questions regarding maintenance and upkeep, they also include questions that could presume future liability for any deficiencies – questions like: “Is the HOA or Cooperative Corporation aware of any deficiencies related to the safety, soundness, structural integrity, or habitability of the project's buildings?”   The Orange County Register reported on a survey by the Community Associations Institute that shows 89% of the participants felt they might be held liable in the future because of questions they didn't know how to answer. Almost as many also feared liability exposure because they refused to answer those questions. (2)   News reports say that some condo associations and property management companies feel the questionnaires are “draconian” and have chosen instead to boycott Fannie/Freddie loans.   Questionnaire Alternative Not Well Received   The mortgage giants are offering an alternative although that hasn't gotten a great reception either. Instead of the questionnaire, the underwriter can provide reviews of board minutes from HOA meetings, engineering inspections, and local government inspections. Lenders weren't thrilled with that option because it could expose the lender to future liability issues.    Mortgage broker Jeff Lazerson says in the Orange County Register article, that 50% of the loans that his shop runs through Fannie and Freddie require a limited review and a shorter list of HOA questions. A Freddie Mac spokesperson says that: “Freddie Mac's requirements are designed to help ensure residential buildings with aging infrastructure are safe for their residents and the condos and co-ops needing critical repairs have a plan to do so.”   Safety is of utmost importance, but with affordable housing in short supply, the questionnaire and the blacklist add two more obstacles for homebuyers looking for a lower price tag.   Secret Blacklist for Lenders & Servicers   As for the blacklist, it's reportedly available to lenders and servicers, but not the property owners or the public in general which includes potential buyers. That means buyers counting on a loan from Fannie or Freddie might not find out until the last minute.   Tomaselli says: “It's a crapshoot. The only way for you to find out if a project is on that list is if you apply for a mortgage and the lender runs that project to see if it's unavailable. And only then, typically, is the buyer informed.” Buyers must then turn to riskier, more expensive mortgages to complete their transaction.    You'll find links to articles about the blacklist and the HOA questionnaire at newsforinvestors.com. As always, I ask that you join RealWealth for free to learn more about real estate, and subscribe to this podcast! We'd also appreciate a review on whatever podcast platform you are using.   Thank you! And thanks for listening, Kathy Fettke   Links:   1 - https://www.bisnow.com/national/news/capital-markets/secret-blacklist-of-condos-co-ops-means-some-buyers-ineligible-for-fannie-freddie-financing-118544   2 - https://www.ocregister.com/2022/02/24/condo-questionnaire-causing-some-boards-to-boycott-fannie-freddie-financing/

Mention HUD financing to apartment syndicators a couple years ago…they would laugh at you. Today, many syndicators are not laughing. Those adjustable-rate loans need additional capital (like a fish needs water) from their limited partner investors to purchase expensive interest rate caps; so numerous syndicators are exploring different refinancing options. Fannie & Freddie are good options, but many syndicators are “changing the narrative” to hold the property longer until the market improves. A HUD loan could be a better option with a 35-year fixed term and lower debt service coverage to qualify. Listen to this important discussion on HUD financing in today's market. Are you interested in learning more about how Multifamily Syndications work? Please visit www.spiadvisory.com to learn more about Michael Becker's Real Estate Syndication business with SPI Advisory LLC. Please leave us a 5 - STAR RATING on iTunes, if you enjoyed this podcast. We would appreciate that, thanks.

Ethan Gao has owned several rental properties, made over 300 private loans secured by real estate (both single family and commercial real estate), invested in over 100 single family fix and flip projects and is a general partner on multiple commercial and multifamily projects totaling over 900 units. His primary role on deals is loan guarantor/key principal or gap funder (i.e. where the sponsorship team has raised around 80% of the limited partnership equity but does not have enough time to raise the remainder - Ethan will come in and lend that remainder to the team so that the deal can get done on time).     Ethan personally and through his private equity fund, Good Bull Investments LP and Good Bull Lending, LLC has also invested in commercial properties totaling over $25 million (including hotels, self-storage, office building, medical office and retail). Ethan graduated from Cornell University with a BA in Economics in 2003 at the age of 19 and from Columbia Law School in 2006 at the age of 22. He worked on billion dollar mergers and acquisitions for several years on Wall Street in financial institutions before transitioning to being a professional investor and entrepreneur in 2016. He lives in Houston, TX with his wife (who he met the first day of class at Cornell in 2000) and their five children.   In this episode, Ethan talks about the art of networking, due diligence, and how to protect yourself from shady characters. He also discusses a particular strategy for raising capital that involves leveraging special services and “deep pockets” to bridge the gap between selling a deal and receiving funds. Hear how he raised $1.4 million in six days to close a deal before Christmas and learn the psychology of commission breadth, KP sponsorships, and net worth proofing on multi-million dollar deals. Plus, get advice on networking in the age of Covid and why money isn't always the only factor when deciding on key partners or sponsors.      [00:01 - 05:52] How It All Started Three years ago, he started offering his services as a key principal loan guarantor and backed into a side business of being a gap funder He has done more than a dozen deals as a loan guarantor and gap funder He co-manages Goodwill Investments, a private equity firm   [05:53 - 11:36] Deep Pockets and Desperation: How We Raised $1.4 Million in 6 Days Provides a level of security for closing deals Removes fear and makes interactions more comfortable when talking to investors Psychological boost of knowing worst case scenario you will still close the deal Raised $1.4 million in 6 days over the holiday KP sponsors deals a dozen times and is in process to do it more   [11:37 - 17:04] Navigating the Commercial Real Estate Space with Angel and Ethan: A Decade of Experience Bank may accept stocks, bonds, cash, IRAs, 401ks (with discount) and life insurance  Ethan has done industrial deals, multi-family, hospitality office industrial, storage  To get an agency card from Fannie Freddie one needs one commercial multi-family property or one commercial property with five years of ownership Virtual events allow people to network   [17:05 - 22:37] Closing Segment Ethan Goa shares why we don't just look at someone's net worth when looking for a key partner or sponsor - you need to know where the money came from To learn more about Ethan and his work, listeners can visit Good Bull Investments!   Tweetable Quotes: “Networking is more important versus if they just stay in their whole market and that's all they do.” – Ethan Gao   “So clients and potential clients know when you're desperate for a sale and a commission, and it's a psychological thing where it creeps into the interactions that you do with the client or the potential client.” – Ethan Gao     You can connect with Dustin Heiner through his: Website: Good Bull Investments LinkedIn: Good Bull Investments   LEAVE A REVIEW + help someone who wants to explode their business growth by sharing this episode. Are you confused about where to start? Join our community and learn more about real estate investing. Head over to our Facebook Page, Youtube Channel, or website https://www.theacademypresents.com/jointhesummit36848306. Connect with Lorren Capital, LLC. for syndicated multifamily investments, https://lorrencapital.com/. To learn more about me, visit my LinkedIn profile, and connect with me.

Many physicians want their parents to live close so they can help provide care. You don't necessarily need an expensive "investment loan" to accomplish this. What are the requirements for getting a traditional Fannie/Freddie loan in your name so your parents can live close by? Link to website:  https://dougcrousephysicianloans.com/

There is no real housing market in the US. Instead, an unholy trinity of Fannie/Freddie, the US Treasury, and the Federal Reserve Bank operate to distort the market at every turn and drive home prices up dramatically. Mises Institute Senior Fellow Alex Pollock, an economist and former mortgage banker, joins Jeff to describe the reality few Americans know. Alex Pollock's new book Surprised Again: The Covid Crisis and the New Market Bubble : Mises.org/HAP377a Alex Pollock on how the Fed became the world's biggest S&L: Mises.org/HAP377b

There is no real housing market in the US. Instead, an unholy trinity of Fannie/Freddie, the US Treasury, and the Federal Reserve Bank operate to distort the market at every turn and drive home prices up dramatically. Mises Institute Senior Fellow Alex Pollock, an economist and former mortgage banker, joins Jeff to describe the reality few Americans know. Alex Pollock's new book Surprised Again: The Covid Crisis and the New Market Bubble : Mises.org/HAP377a Alex Pollock on how the Fed became the world's biggest S&L: Mises.org/HAP377b]]>

There is no real housing market in the US. Instead, an unholy trinity of Fannie/Freddie, the US Treasury, and the Federal Reserve Bank operate to distort the market at every turn and drive home prices up dramatically. Mises Institute Senior Fellow Alex Pollock, an economist and former mortgage banker, joins Jeff to describe the reality few Americans know. Alex Pollock's new book Surprised Again: The Covid Crisis and the New Market Bubble : Mises.org/HAP377a Alex Pollock on how the Fed became the world's biggest S&L: Mises.org/HAP377b

There is no real housing market in the US. Instead, an unholy trinity of Fannie/Freddie, the US Treasury, and the Federal Reserve Bank operate to distort the market at every turn and drive home prices up dramatically. Mises Institute Senior Fellow Alex Pollock, an economist and former mortgage banker, joins Jeff to describe the reality few Americans know. Alex Pollock's new book Surprised Again: The Covid Crisis and the New Market Bubble : Mises.org/HAP377a Alex Pollock on how the Fed became the world's biggest S&L: Mises.org/HAP377b

There is no real housing market in the US. Instead, an unholy trinity of Fannie/Freddie, the US Treasury, and the Federal Reserve Bank operate to distort the market at every turn and drive home prices up dramatically. Mises Institute Senior Fellow Alex Pollock, an economist and former mortgage banker, joins Jeff to describe the reality few Americans know. Alex Pollock's new book Surprised Again: The Covid Crisis and the New Market Bubble : Mises.org/HAP377a Alex Pollock on how the Fed became the world's biggest S&L: Mises.org/HAP377b

Podcast: Dwarkesh Podcast Episode: Bethany McLean - Enron, FTX, 2008, Musk, Frauds, & VisionariesRelease date: 2022-12-21This was one of my favorite episodes ever.Bethany McLean was the first reporter to question Enron's earnings, and she has written some of the best finance books out there.We discuss:* The astounding similarities between Enron & FTX,* How visionaries are just frauds who succeed (and which category describes Elon Musk),* What caused 2008, and whether we are headed for a new crisis,* Why there's too many venture capitalists and not enough short sellers,* And why history keeps repeating itself.McLean is a contributing editor at Vanity Fair (see her articles here and the author of The Smartest Guys in the Room, All the Devils Are Here, Saudi America, and Shaky Ground.Watch on YouTube. Listen on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or your favorite podcast platform.Follow McLean on Twitter. Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes.Timestamps(0:04:37) - Is Fraud Over?(0:11:22) - Shortage of Shortsellers(0:19:03) - Elon Musk - Fraud or Visionary?(0:23:00) - Intelligence, Fake Deals, & Culture(0:33:40) - Rewarding Leaders for Long Term Thinking(0:37:00) - FTX Mafia?(0:40:17) - Is Finance Too Big?(0:44:09) - 2008 Collapse, Fannie & Freddie(0:49:25) - The Big Picture(1:00:12) - Frackers Vindicated?(1:03:40) - Rating Agencies(1:07:05) - Lawyers Getting Rich Off Fraud(1:15:09) - Are Some People Fundamentally Deceptive?(1:19:25) - Advice for Big Picture Thinkers Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkeshpatel.com/subscribe

Podcast: The Lunar Society (LS 37 · TOP 2.5% )Episode: [Best] Bethany McLean - Enron, FTX, 2008, Musk, Frauds, & VisionariesRelease date: 2022-12-21This was one of my favorite episodes ever.Bethany McLean was the first reporter to question Enron's earnings, and she has written some of the best finance books out there. We discuss:* The astounding similarities between Enron & FTX,* How visionaries are just frauds who succeed (and which category describes Elon Musk),* What caused 2008, and whether we are headed for a new crisis,* Why there's too many venture capitalists and not enough short sellers,* And why history keeps repeating itself.McLean is a contributing editor at Vanity Fair (see her articles here) and the author of The Smartest Guys in the Room, All the Devils Are Here, Saudi America, and Shaky Ground.Watch on YouTube. Listen on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or your favorite podcast platform.Follow McLean on Twitter. Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes. If you enjoyed this episode, please share. Helps out a ton.Timestamps(0:04:37) - Is Fraud Over? (0:11:22) - Shortage of Shortsellers(0:19:03) - Elon Musk - Fraud or Visionary?(0:23:00) - Intelligence, Fake Deals, & Culture(0:33:40) - Rewarding Leaders for Long Term Thinking(0:37:00) - FTX Mafia?(0:40:17) - Is Finance Too Big?(0:44:09) - 2008 Collapse, Fannie & Freddie(0:49:25) - The Big Picture(1:00:12) - Frackers Vindicated?(1:03:40) - Rating Agencies(1:07:05) - Lawyers Getting Rich Off Fraud(1:15:09) - Are Some People Fundamentally Deceptive?(1:19:25) - Advice for Big Picture ThinkersTranscriptThis transcript was autogenerated and thus may contain errors.Dwarkesh Patel: the rapid implosion of a company worth tens of billions of dollars. Insider dealing and romantic entanglements between sister companies, a politically generous c e o, who is well connected in Washington, the use of a company's own stock as its collateral, the attempt, the short-lived attempt to get bought out by a previous competitor, and the fraudulent abuse of mark to market account.[00:01:00] We are not talking about ftx, we are talking about Enron, which my guest today, Bethany McClean, uh, first broke the story of and has written an amazing and detailed book about, uh, called The Smartest Guys in the Room. And she has also written, uh, a book about the housing crisis. All the devils are here, a book about Fannie and Freddy Shaky Ground, and a book about fracking Saudi America, all of which we'll get into.She's, in my opinion, the best finance nonfiction writer out there, and I'm really, really excited to have this conversation now. So, Bethany, thank you so much for coming on the podcast. Bethany McLean: Thank you so much for the, for the probably Undeserved Conference, for having me on the show. Dwarkesh Patel: My first question, what are the odds that Sbf read the smartest guys in the room and just followed it as a playbook, given the similarities there?Bethany McLean: You, you know, I, I love that idea. I have to, I have to admit, I guess I love that idea. I don't know. That would make me responsible for what, for what happened, . So maybe I don't love that idea. L let me take that back . [00:02:00] Anyway, but I, I, I actually think that, that, that even if he had read the book, it would never have occurred to him that, that there was a similarity because self-delusion is such a, Strong component of all of these stories of business gone wrong.It's very rare that you have one of the characters at the heart of this who actually understands what they're doing and understands that they're moving over into the dark side and thinks about the potential repercussions of this and chooses this path. Anyway, that's usually not the way these stories go.So it's entirely possible that Sbf studied Enron, knew all about it, and never envisioned that there were any similarities between that and what he was doing. Dwarkesh Patel: Oh, that's a fascinating, um, which I guess raises the question of what are we doing when we're documenting and trying to learn from books like yours?If somebody who is a, about to commit the same exact kind of thing can read that book and not realize that he's doing the same exact thing, is there something that just [00:03:00] prevents us from learning the lessons of history that we, we can never just, uh, get the analogy right, and we're just guided by our own delusions.Bethany McLean: Wasn't there a great quote that history rhymes, but it doesn't repeat. I'm Yeah. Relying on who it is who said that, but I think that's, that's absolutely true. Oh, I think it's important for all of us, those of us who are not gonna find ourselves at the center of, uh, giant fraud or, so, I hope, I think my time for that has passed.Maybe not you, but, um, I think it's important for all of us to understand what went wrong. And I, I do think these, I do think just there, there's a great value and greater understanding of the world without necessarily a practical payoff for it. So I think when something goes wrong on a massive societal level, it's really important to try to, to try to explain it.Human beings have needed narrative since the dawn of time, and we need narrative all, all, all the more now we need, we need to make sense of the world. So I like to believe. Process of making, trying to make sense of the world. , um, [00:04:00] has a value in, in and of itself. Maybe there is small, some small deterrence aspect to it in that I often think that if people understand more the process by which things go go wrong, that it isn't deliberate, that it's not bad people setting out to do bad things.It's human beings, um, at first convincing themselves even that they're doing the right thing and then ending up in a situation that they, they never meant to be in. And maybe on the margin that does, maybe on the margin that does, that does help because maybe it has deterred some people who, who would've started down that path, but for the fact that they now see that that's the, that's the usual path.Dwarkesh Patel: Yeah. Yeah. That actually raises the next question I wanted to ask you. Bern Hobart, uh, he's a finance writer as well. He wrote a blog post, um, about, uh, I mean this was before FTX obviously, and he was talking about Enron and he said in the end, it actually looks like we fixed the precise problem. Enron represented.Nobody I know solely looks at gap [00:05:00] financials. Everybody ultimately models based on free cash flow, we're much more averse to companies that set up a deliberate conflict of interest between management and shareholders. And I guess there's a way in which you can read that and say, oh, it doesn't FTX prove I'm wrong.But, you know, there's another way you can look at it is that FTX deliberately set up outside the us. So there's a story to be told that actually we learned the lessons of Enron and, you know, uh, so remains obviously worked. Uh, that's why, you know, they were in The Bahamas and we haven't seen the scale fraud of that scale in, you know, the continental United States.Um, do, do you think that the FTX saga and I guess the absence of other frauds of that scale in America shows that. The regulations and this changed business and investment practices in the aftermath of Enron have actually. Bethany McLean: Well, I think they've probably worked in narrowly, written in, in the way in which the writer you quoted articulated, I think it would be very hard for the cfo, F O of a publicly traded company to set up other private [00:06:00] equity firms that he ran, that did all their business with his company.Because everybody would say That's Enron and it would be completely. On the nose. And so, and Sarbanes Oxley in the sense of, in the sense of helping to reign in corporate fraud of the sort that was practiced by Enron, which was this abuse of very specific accounting rules. Um, I think I, I, I think that worked.But you know, you say there hasn't been fraud on a scale like Enron up until perhaps f ftx, but you're forgetting the global financial crisis. Yeah. And then the end, the line between what happened at Enron. and, and what happened in the global financial crisis. It's not a matter of black and white. It's not a matter of, one thing was clear cut fraud and one thing great.We love these practices. Isn't this fantastic? This is the way we want business to operate. They're both somewhere in the murky middle. You know, a lot of what happened at Enron wasn't actually outright fraud. I've coined this phrase, legal fraud to describe, um, to describe what it is that, that, that, that happened at Enron.And a lot of what [00:07:00] happened in the global financial crisis was legal, hence the lack of prosecutions. But it's also not behavior that that leads to a healthy market or mm-hmm. , for that matter, a a a a healthy society. And so there's a reason that you had Sarbanes Oxley and what was it, eight short, short years later you had Dodd-Frank and so Riri broadly.I'm not sure Sarbanes actually did that much good. And what I mean by that is when President George Bush signed it into law in the Rose Garden, he gave this speech about how investors were now protected and everything was great and your, your ordinary investors could take comfort that the laws were meant to protect them from wrongdoing.And you compare that to the speech that President Barack Obama gave eight years later when he signed Don Frank into law in the Rose Garden. And it's remarkably similar that now ordinary investors can count on the rules and regulations keeping themself from people who are prey on their financial wellbeing.[00:08:00] And I don't think it was, it's, it's true in either case because our markets, particularly modern markets move and evolve so quickly that the thing that's coming out of left field to get you is never gonna be the thing you are protecting against. Mm. . Dwarkesh Patel: , but given the fact that Enron, as you say, was committing legal fraud, is it possible that the government, um, when they prosecuted skilling and Fastow and lay, they in fact, We're not, uh, they, they prosecuted them to a greater extent than the law as written at the time would have warranted.In other words, were, uh, was there something legally invalid in the, in this, in the quantity of sentence that they got? Is it possible? Bethany McLean: So that's a really, it, it's, it's a, I I get what you're asking. I think it's a really tricky question because I think in absolute terms, um, Enron needed to be prosecuted and needed to be prosecuted aggressively.And while I say it was legal fraud, that is for the most part, there was actually real fraud around, around, uh, but it's on the margin. It doesn't [00:09:00] entire, it doesn't explain the entirety of Enron's collapse. Much of what they did was using and abusing the accounting rules in order to create an appearance of economic reality.Nothing to do with actual, with actual reality. But then there was actual fraud in the sense that Andy Fasta was stealing money from these partnerships to benefit himself. And they were, if you believe, the core tenant of the prosecution, which was their, this agreement called Global Galactic that was signed by, that was between Andy fau and Jeff Skilling, where Jeff agreed that Andy's partnerships would never lose money.Then that invalidated all of the, all of the accounting, and that's the chief reason that that. That skilling was, was, was convicted, um, was that the jury believed the existence of this, of this, of this agreement that in, um, one set of insider stock sales, which, which we can talk about, which was also a really key moment relative to the, so in absolute terms, I don't know, it's, it's hard for me to, to say there was [00:10:00] such, Enron was such a, to a degree that is still surprising to me, such a, a watershed moment in our, in our country, far beyond business itself.it, it, it caused so much insecurity that about our retirements, our retirement assets safe. Can you trust the company where you work? That I think the government did, did have to prosecute aggressively, but relative to the financial crisis where a lot of people made off with a lot of money and never had to give any of it back, does it seem fair that, that, that Jeff Skilling went to jail for over a decade and no one involved in a major way in the financial crisis paid any price whatsoever?People didn't even really have to give up that much of the money they made then. Then it seems a little bit unfair. Yes, so I think it's, it's an absolute versus a relative Dwarkesh Patel: question. Yeah. Yeah. By the way, who do you think made more money? Um, the investment banks, uh, like, uh, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, um, from doing, [00:11:00] providing their services to Enron as the stock was going up, or Jim Chanos from shorting the stock?In absolute terms, who made more money? Bethany McLean: Oh, I think the investment banks for sure. I mean, they made, they made so much money in investment banking fees from, from, from Enron. But, you know, it's a good question. . , it's a good question actually, because I think Jim made a lot of money too, so, Dwarkesh Patel: Yeah. Yeah. I mean, I, I, you've spoken about, I guess the usefulness and the shortage of short sellers des a sort of, uh, corrective on irrational exuberance.And I'm curious why you think that shortage exists in the first place. Like, if you believe in the efficient market hypothesis, you should think that, you know, if some company has terrible financials and implausible numbers, then people would be lining up to short it. And then you would never have a phenomenon like Enron.And so it's, it's, you know, it's so odd that you can. , you know, reporters who are basically ahead of the market in terms of predicting what's gonna happen. Uh, well, uh, how do you square that with like the efficient [00:12:00] market hypothesis? Well, do you Bethany McLean: believe in the efficient market hypothesis, ? Dwarkesh Patel: I, I, I'd like to, but I'm like trying to , trying to wrap my head around Enron.Bethany McLean: I, I'm, I'm, I'm, I'm not sure how you. Can, unless you, unless you adopt Warren Buffett's point of view, and I'm gonna mangle the quote because, uh, but, but it's that the market in the short term is a voting machine in the long term. It's a weighing machine, right? Mm-hmm. , or is it the other way around? . Anyway, but the idea is that the market may be very efficient for a long, very inefficient, for a long period of time.But, but it does actually, rationality does actually work in, in, in the end. And I think I might believe that, but isn't it John Maynard Cas who said the market can remain irrational for a lot longer than you can remain solvent. And so I think that's true too. I think believing that the market is efficient and rational in the short term is just obviously wrongUm, but back to your question about short sellers, which is, which is interesting, you know, I think part of it is that there is still this, um, there certainly was a couple of [00:13:00] decades ago, and I think it still exists, this idea that. Owning stocks is Mom, American, and apple pie in shorting stocks somehow is bad and evil and rooting, rooting against America.And I remember going back to the Enron days, someone, people criticizing me, even other people in the press saying, but you took a tip from a short seller. They're biased. And I. , I would say. But, but, but wait, the analysts who have buy ratings on stocks and the portfolio managers who own those stocks, they're biased too.They want the stocks to go up. Everybody's biased. So the trick as a journalist is getting information from all sides and figuring out who you think is right and what makes sense. But it's not avoiding anybody with any bias. But it was really interesting that people saw the bias on the part of short sellers and did not see it on the part of, of, of Longs.And I think there is that preconception that exists broadly, that somehow you are doing something wrong and you're somehow rooting for a company's failure. And that this is, I don't know, anti-American if you, if, if you [00:14:00] short a stock. And so I think that's part of why there's, there's, there's a shortage of shortage of, of, of short sellers.Um, I think also, I mean, we've had. Incredible, unprecedented bull market for the last four decades as a result of falling interest rates, and especially in the decade before the pandemic hit, it was very, very difficult to make money shorting anything because everything went to the moon. Didn't matter if its numbers were good, if it was eventually unmasked to be somewhat fraudulent, , it stocks just went to the moon anyway.The riskier the better. And so it is only diehard short sellers that have managed to stick it out . Yeah, and I think, I think lastly, Jim Chano said this to me once, and I, I think it's true that he could find, dozens of people who were skilled enough to come, smart enough to come work for him.There's no shortage of that. People who are technically skilled and really smart, but being able to be contrarian for a long period of time, especially when the market is going against you, is a different sort [00:15:00] of person. It that it requires a completely different mindset to have everybody in the world saying, you're wrong to be losing money because the stock is continuing to go up and to be able to hold fast to your conviction.And I think that's another, uh, part of the explanation for why there are fewer short sellers. Dwarkesh Patel: Yeah, and that raised an interesting question about. Uh, venture capital, for example, where, or private markets in general? Um, at least in the public markets, there's shorting maybe in shortage, but it, it is a possible mechanism, whereas, uh, I'm a programmer.So, you know, if, if like a one guy thinks the company's worth a hundred million dollars and everybody else thinks it's not, you know, the company will still be, uh, the price will still be said by the, you know, the person who's a believer. Um, does that increase the risk of some sort of bubble in venture capital and in technology?Um, and I guess in private markets generally, if they're, they're not public, is that something you worry about that they're, they will be incredible bubbles built up if there's a lot of money that's floating around in these Bethany McLean: circles. . Well, I think we're seeing that now, [00:16:00] right? And I don't think it's a coincidence that FTX and Theranos were not publicly traded companies, right?Mm-hmm. . Um, there's a certain sort of, uh, black box quality to these companies because people aren't charting them and aren't, aren't, and aren't, you know, whispering to journalists about that. That there's something wrong here and there aren't publicly available financials for people to dig through and look, look, and look at the numbers.So now I don't think that's a coincidence. And I do think this gigantic move into private assets has been, um, probably not great for the, for the, for the, for the. for the, for the safety of the system. And you'd say, well, it's just institutional investors who can afford to lose money who are losing money.But it's really not because institutional investors are just pension fund money. Mm-hmm. and in some cases now mutual fund money. So that distinction that the people who are investing in this stuff can afford to lose it is not really true. Um, so I don't, I don't like that rationalization. I think we're gonna see how that plays out.There was [00:17:00] just a really good piece in the Economist about private equity marks on their portfolio companies and how they are still looked to be much higher than what you would think they should be given the carnage in the market. And so all of what, what actually things are really worth in private markets, both for venture capital firms and for private equity firms, Is absent another, another bubble starting, starting in the markets.I think we're gonna see how that plays out over, over the next year. And it might be a wake up call for, for a lot of people. Um, you know, all that, all that said, it's an interesting thing because investors have been very complicit in this, right? In the sense that a lot of investors are absolutely delighted to have prep, to have their, their private, um, their private investments marked at a high level.They don't have to go to the committee overseeing the investments and say, look, I lost 20% of your money the way they might, um, if, if the numbers were public. And so that the ability of these of private investors to smooth as they call it, the, the, the returns is, is it's [00:18:00] been, it's been part of the appeal.It hasn't been a negative, it's been a positive. And so I would say that investors who wanted this moving are. Art might be getting what they deserve except for the pointing made earlier that it isn't, it isn't their money. It's, it's the money of, of teachers and firefighters and individual investors a around the country, and that's, that's problematic.Dwarkesh Patel: Yeah. Yeah. Being in the world of technology and being around people in it has. made me, somewhat shocked when I read about these numbers from the past. For example, when I'm reading your books and they're detailing things that happened in the nineties or the two thousands, and then you realize that the salary that Hank Paulson made a c e o of Goldman, or that skilling made as, you know, um, c e o of Enron, you know, I, it's like I have friends who are my age, like 22 year olds who are raising seed rounds, , that are as big as like these people's salaries.And so it just feels like the, these books were, you have $50 billion frauds or, you know, hundreds of billions of dollars of collapse and the individuals there, um, it just feels like they, it's missing a few zeros, uh, [00:19:00] because of the delusion of the private markets. But, um, but speaking of short sellers and speaking of private equity, um, I think it'd be interesting to talk about sbf.So, you know, your 2018 Vanity Fair article I thought was really interesting about, you know, sbf factory in Buffalo H How, how do you think back on Tesla and sbf now, given the fact that. The stock did continue to rise afterwards, and the factory, I believe, was completed and it's, I hired the 1500 or so people that had promised New York State, uh, is sbf just a fraud?Who can pull it off? And so he's a visionary. How, how do you think about sbf in the aftermath? Bethany McLean: So I don't think that's right about Buffalo and I have to look, but I don't think they ended up, I mean, the Solar City business that Tesla has pretty much collapsed. I don't think people haven't gotten their roofs.There was just a piece about how they're canceling some of their roof installations. So sbf has repeatedly made grand visions about that business that haven't played out. And I will check this for you post the podcast, but I don't think [00:20:00] if there is employment at that factory in, in Buffalo, it's not because they're churn out solar, solar, solar products that are, that are, that are doing.What was originally promised. So I guess I, I think about that story in a, in a couple of ways. It definitely, um, it was not meant to be a piece about Tesla. It was meant to be a piece that shown a little bit of light on how sbf operates and his willingness to flout the rules and his reliance on government subsidies, despite the fact that he, um, presents himself as this libertarian free, free, free market free marketeer, and his willingness to lie to, to, to, on some level enrich himself, which also runs counter to the Elon sbf narrative that he doesn't care about making money for, for himself.Because the main reason for Teslas to by Solar City was that Solar City had the main reason, was it Tes, that was, that Solar City had, that, that sbf and his, and his and his relatives had extended the these loans to Solar City that were gonna go. [00:21:00] There were gonna be lo all the money was gonna be lost at Solar City when bankrupt.And by having Tesla buy it, sbf was able to bail himself out, um, as, as as well. And I also think a good reason for the, for the, for, and it brings us to the present time, but a reason for the acquisition was that sbf knows that this image of himself as the invincible and vulnerable who can always raise money and whose companies always work out in the end, was really important.And if Solar City had gone bankrupt, it would've cast a big question mark over over sbf, over over the sbf narrative. And so I think he literally couldn't afford to let Solar City go bankrupt. Um, all of that said, I have, I have been, and was I, I was quite skeptical of Tesla and I thought about it in, in, in, in.And I always believed that the product was great. I just, mm-hmm. wasn't sure about the company's money making potential. And I think that, that, it's something I started thinking about, um, background, the Solar City time, maybe earlier, but this line, something I've talked about [00:22:00] before. But this line between a visionary and a fraudster.You know, you think that they're on two opposite ends of the spectrum, but in reality they're where the ends of the circle meet. Characteristics of one. One has that many of the characteristics of the other. And sometimes I think the only thing that really separates the two is that the fraudster is able to keep getting mo raising money in order to get through the really difficult time where he or she isn't telling the truth.And then they, that person goes down in history as a visionary. Um, but because no one ever looks back to the moment in time when they were lying, the fraudster gets caught in the middle. Um, so Enron's Lo lost access to to the capital markets lost AC access to funding as the market collapsed after the.com boom.And people began to wonder whether skilling was telling the truth about Enron's broadband business. And then there were all the disclosures about Andy fasa partnerships if Enron had been able to continue raising money, Business of Enron's called Enron Broadband might well have been Netflix. It was Netflix ahead of its time.So Enron just got caught in the middle and all [00:23:00] the fraud, all the fraud got exposed . Um, but that's not because Jeff Skilling wasn't a visionary who had really grand plans for, for, for, for the future. So I think sbf falls somewhere in that spectrum of, of, of fraudster and visionary. And what's gonna be really interesting why I said that this, we bring it to the present time about what happens to the mu narrative.If something fails is what happens. Yeah. Is as the world watch watches Twitter implode, um, what does that mean then for the Elon sbf narrative overall? Dwarkesh Patel: Yeah. Yeah. Um, going back to the Smartest Guys is the Room, the title obviously suggests something about. The, I guess in general, the ability and the likelihood of very smart people committing fraud or things of that sort.Um, but you know, Begar Jones has this book called Hi Mind, where he talks about how the smarter people are more likely to cooperate in prisoners dilemma type situations. They have longer time preference. And one of the things you've written about is the problem in corporate America is people having shorter, [00:24:00] um, uh, you know, doing two too big time discounting.So, uh, given that trend we see in general of greater Cooperativeness, um, and other kinds of traits of more intelligent people, do you think the reason we often find people like S B F and skilling running big frauds just by being very intelligent, is it just that on, on average smarter people, maybe less likely to commit fraud, but when they do commit fraud, they do it at such garat scales and they're able to do it at such gar scales that it just brings down entire empires?How, how, how do you think about the relationship between intelligence and fraud? . Bethany McLean: That's interesting. Um, I'm not sure I know a coherent answer to that. Um, smartest guys in the room as a title was a little bit tongue in cheek. It wasn't meant to say, these guys actually are the smartest guys in the room. It was, it, it was a little bit, it was a little bit ironic, but that doesn't take away from the really good question that you asked, which is what, what, what is that relationship?I, I mean, I think if you look at the history of corporate fraud, you are not going to find unintelligent people having [00:25:00] been the masterminds behind this. You're gonna find really, really, really smart, even brilliant people having, having, having been, been behind it, maybe some at part of that is this linkage between the visionary and the fraud star that so many of these, of these corporate frauds are people who have qualities of the visionary and to.The qualities of, of a visionary, you have to have a pretty, pretty, pretty, pretty high intelligence. Um, and I do think so many of these stories are, are about then self delusion. So I don't think smart people are any less likely to suffer from self delusion than dumb people. And they're probably more likely to, because you can rationalize, you know, the smart person's ability to rationalize just about anything they wanna rational rationalize is pretty profound.Whereas perhaps someone who doesn't have quite the same, the same brain power isn't gonna be able to create a narrative under which their actions are blameless and they're doing the right thing. So I think sometimes, so maybe there is some sort of relationship [00:26:00] there that somebody more qualified than I am would have to study between smart people's ability to, to, to rationalize just about anything as a way of, as part of the path to self delusion and part of the path by which these things happen.Yeah, that's completely, that's completely , that's Bethany theory. There's absolutely nothing to back that . I'm just Dwarkesh Patel: well clear. Let's do some more speculation. So, um, one of the things, uh, John Ray talked about in his testimony, um, was it two days ago where he said that, you know, FTX had done $5 billion of investments and deals in the last year, and most of those investments were worth a fraction of the value that FTX paid for them.And we see this also in, obviously in Enron, right? With, uh, broadband and with, um, ul, or is that how pronounce it, but basically their international department. Yeah. Um, what is this, uh, this obsession with deal making for its own sake? Is that to appease investors and make them think a lot's going on, is that because of [00:27:00] the hubris of the founder, of just wanting to set up a big empire as fast as possible, even if you're getting a bad sticker price?What, why do we see this pattern of just, you know, excessive deal making for its own sake? Bethany McLean: That's an interesting question too. I'm not sure that that's, um, limited to companies that go splat dramatically. There's a lot of, a lot of deal making in, in corporate America has that same frenzied quality. Um, I haven't seen an updated study on, on this in a, in a long time, but, you know, I began my career working as an analyst in an m and a department at at at Goldman Sachs.And. Definitely deals are done for the sake of doing deals. And I once joked that synergies are kind of like UFOs. A lot of people claim to have seen them, but there's no proof that they actually exist. , and again, I haven't seen an updated study on, on, on this, but there was one years back that showed that most m and a transactions don't result in increased value for shareholders.And most synergies, most promised synergies never materialize. [00:28:00] Just getting bigger for the sake of getting bigger and doing deals for the short term value of showing Wall Street a projection. That earnings are gonna be so much higher even after the cost of the debt that you've taken on. And that they're these great synergies that are gonna come about from, from combining businesses.So I don't know that either the frenzy deal doing or deal doing deals gone wrong is, um, solely limited to people who are committing fraud. , I think it's kinda across the spectrum. , . Dwarkesh Patel: Um, um, well one, one thing I find interesting about your books is how you detail that. And correct me if this is the wrong way to read them, but that, uh, incentives are not the only thing that matter.You know, there there's this perception that, you know, we've set up bad incentives for these actors and that's why they did bad things. But also, um, the power of one individual to shape a co co company's culture and the power of that culture to enable bad behavior, whether scaling at Enron or with Clarkson Right at Moody's.Yeah. Um, is that a good, good way of reading your books or how, how do you think [00:29:00] about the relative importance of culture and incentive? Bethany McLean: I think that's really fair. But incentives are part of culture, right? If, if you've set up a culture where, where how you're valued is what you get paid, I think it's a little, it's a little difficult to separate those two things out because, because the, the incentives do help make the culture, but for sure culture is incredibly, um, incredibly compelling.I've often thought and said that if I had, when I was leaving my short lived career in investment banking, if I had, if I had gotten in some of the head hunters I was talking to, if one of them had said, there's this great, really energetic, interesting energy company down in Houston, , why don't interview there?If I had gone there, would I have been a whistleblower or would I have been a believer? And I'd like to believe I would've been a whistleblower, but I think it's equally likely that I would've been a believer. Culture is so strong. It creates this. What's maybe a miasma that you can't see outside?I remember a guy I talked to who's a trader at Enron, really smart guy, and he [00:30:00] was like, after the, after the bankruptcy, he said, of course, if we're all getting paid based on creating reported earnings and there's all this cash going out the door in order to do these deals that are creating reported earnings, and that's the culture of the entire firm, of course it's not gonna work economically.He said, I never thought about it. . It just didn't, it didn't, it didn't occur to me. And I think the more compelling the CEO o the more likely you are to have that kind of mass delusion. I mean, there's a reason cult exist, right? . We, we are as human beings, remarkably susceptible to.Visionary leaders. It's just, it's the way the human brain is wired. We, we wanna believe, and especially if somebody has the ability to put a vision forward, like Jeff Gilling did at Enron, like Elizabeth Holmes did it Theranos like SPF F did, where you feel like you are in the service of something greater by helping this, vision, , actualize then, then you're, particularly susceptible.And I think that is the place where [00:31:00] incentives don't quite explain things. That is, there is this very human desire to matter, to do something important. Mm-hmm to be doing something that's gonna change the world. And when somebody can tap into that desire in people that feeling that what you're doing isn't just work in a paycheck and the incentives you have, but I mean, I guess it is part of the incentive, but that you're part of some greater good.That's incredibly powerful. Yeah. Dwarkesh Patel: It's what we all speaking of. We all wanna matter. . Yeah. Speaking of peoples psychology, uh, crime and punishment, underrated or overrated as a way to analyze the psychology of people like scaling and S B F or maybe SBF specifically because of the utilitarian nature of SB F'S crime?Um, Bethany McLean: I think it's, I think it's underrated, overrated. I'm not sure anybody. , I'm not sure anybody has ever proven that jail sentences for white collar criminals do anything to deter subsequent white collar crime. Mm-hmm. , and I think one part of this is the self delusion that I've, that I talked about. Nobody thinks, [00:32:00] oh, I'm doing the same thing as Jeff Skilling did at Enron, and if I, and if I do this, then I too might end up in jail.Therefore, I don't wanna do this. I just don't think that's the way the, the, the, the, the thought process works. I think Elizabeth Holmes at Theranos, probably for the most part, convinced herself that this was going to work, and that if you just push forward and push hard enough and keep telling people what they wanna hear and keep being able to raise money, it's gonna work.You know, if. . If, if you pause to think, well, what if it doesn't work and I've lied and I go to jail, then, then you'd stop right, right then and there. So I think that, I think that, that I'm, I'm not, I'm not sure it's much of a deterrent. I remember, and partly I'm, I'm biased because I remember a piece, my co-author Peter Alkin, and I wrote out right after Jess Gilling and Kenley were, were convicted and can lay, we're we're convicted.And we wrote a piece for Fortune in which we said that the entire world has changed. Now that corporate executives are, um, are, are put on high alert that behavior in the gray area will no longer be tolerated and that it will be aggressively prosecuted. And this was spring of [00:33:00] 2006 and the events that caused the global financial crisis were pretty well underway.It didn't. Do much to prevent the global financial crisis. Mm-hmm. , Enron's, Enron's jail time, didn't do anything to present, prevent, Elizabeth Holmes doesn't seem to have done anything to change what Sbf was doing. So I just, I, I just, I'm, I'm, I'm not sure, I'm sure a psychologist or somebody who specializes in studying white color crime could probably make a argument that refutes everything I said and that shows that has had a deterring effect.But I just, I just don't think that people who get themselves into this situation, con, con, consciously think, this is what I'm doing. Dwarkesh Patel: Yeah. Yeah. Um, speaking of other incentives, stock options, uh, you've spoken about how that creates short-term incentives for the executives who are making decisions. If you wanted to set up an instrument that aligned an executive or a leader's compensation with the long-term performance of a company, what would that look like?W would you have the options of less than 10 years instead of a [00:34:00] year? H how would you design it? How do you usually design a compensation scheme to award long-term thinking? Bethany McLean: If I could do that, I should ru rule the world . I think that very sweet. I think that is one of the really tough, um, problems confronting boards or anybody who is determining anybody who's determining stock options and that almost anybody who's determining compensation and that most compensation schemes seem to have really terrible unintended consequences.They look really good on paper. And then as they're implemented, it turns out that there was a way in which they accomplished exactly the opposite of, uh, thing the people who designing them wanted, wanted them to accomplish. I mean, if you think back to the advent of stock options, what could sound better?Right. Giving management a share of the company such that if, if, if shareholders did well, that they'd do well, nobody envisioned the ways in which stock options could be repriced. The ways in which meeting earnings targets could lead to gaming the ways in which the incentive of stock-based [00:35:00] compensation could lead to people trying to get anything they could in order to get the stock price higher and cash out when they're, as soon as their stock options vested.So, and even there was, there was, the whole valiant saga was fascinating on this front because the people who designed Mike Pearson's compensation package as ceo e o Valiant, they were convinced that this was absolutely the way to do it. And he got bigger and bigger, um, stock option incentives for hitting certain, for having the stock achieve certain levels.But of course, that creates this incredible bias to just get the stock to go up no matter, no matter what else you do. Um, it does seem to me that vesting over the long term is. is, is a much better way to go about things. But then do you create incentives for people to play games in order to get the stock lower at, at various points where there's about to be a stock optional board so they have a better chance of having directions be, be worth, be worth something over the long term.And do you, particularly on Wall Street there is this, or in firms where this sort of stuff matters the most? There [00:36:00] is this, there was this clearing out of dead wood that happened where people got paid and they got outta the way and made way for younger people. And I don't know, it was a harsh culture, but maybe it made sense on some level.And now at least I've been told with much longer vesting periods, you have people who don't wanna let go. And so you have more of a problem with people who should have retired, stick sticking around instead of in, in, instead of clearing out. And then it also becomes a question, How much money is, is enough.So if somebody is getting millions of dollars in short-term compensation and then they have a whole bunch more money tied up in long-term compensation, do the long-term numbers matter? At what point do they, do they, do they really matter? I mean, if you gave me $5 million today, I'm not so sure I'd really care if I were getting another $5 million in 10 years.Right. ? Yeah. So, so I think all of that is, is it, it's, I'm not, I'm not sure there's a perfect compensation system. All things considered though, I think longer term is, is probably better, [00:37:00] but. Dwarkesh Patel: Yeah, I didn't think about that downside of the long investing period. That's so interesting there. I guess there is no free lunch.Uh, so with Enron, um, it, it was clear that there was a lot of talent at the firm and that you had these companies and these trading firms launch at the aftermath by people who left Enron, kinder Morgan and John Arnold's, um, uh, Sintas, uh, that were wildly profitable and did well. Do you think we'll see the same thing with FTX, that while Sbf himself and maybe the, his close cadre were frauds, there actually was a lot of great trading and engineering talent there that are gonna start these very successful firms in the aftermath.Bethany McLean: That's, that's interesting. And just, just for the sake of clarification, kinder Morgan was actually started years before Enron's collapsed, when Rich Kinder, who was vying with Jeffs skilling in a sense, to become Chief Operating Officer. Um, Ken Lay, picked Jeffs skilling and Kinder left. Mm-hmm. and took a few assets and went to create Kinder, kinder Morgan.But your overall point, I'm just clarifying your overall point holds, there were a lot of people who [00:38:00] left Enron and went on to do, to have pretty, pretty remarkable careers. I think the answer with ftx, I bet there will be some for sure. But whether they will be in the crypto space, I guess depends on your views on the long-term viability of, of, of the crypto space.And I have never , it's funny is crypto exploded over the last couple of years. I was, I've been working on this book about the pandemic and it's been busy and difficult enough that I have not lifted my head to, to think about much else. And I always thought, I don't get it. I don't understand , I mean, I understand the whole argument about the blockchain being valuable for lots of transactions and I, I get that, but I never understood crypto itself and I thought, well, I just need to, as soon as this book is done, I just need to put a month into understanding this because it's obviously an important, important enough part of our world that I need to figure it out.So now I think, oh, Okay, maybe I didn't understand it for a reason and maybe, um, maybe there isn't anything to understand and I've just saved myself a whole life of crime because it's all gone. And you have [00:39:00] people like Larry Fink at BlackRock saying, whole industry is gonna implode. It's done. And certainly with the news today, this morning of finances auditor basically saying We're out.Um, I, I don't, I don't know how much of it was, how much of it was, is, was a Ponzi scheme. You might know better than I do. And so I don't know what's left after this whole thing implodes. It's a little bit like, there is an analogy here that when Enron imploded, yes, a lot of people went on to start other successful businesses, but the whole energy trading business is practiced by kind of under capitalized, um, um, energy firms went away and that never came back.Yeah. And so I, I, I don't, I don't know, I'm, it'll be, I, I don't know. What do you. The Dwarkesh Patel: time to be worried will be when Bethany McLean writes an article titled Is Bitcoin Overvalued for the Audience. My Moments on That ? Yeah, for the audience that, that was, I believe the first skeptical article about Enron's, um, stock price.Yeah. Uh, and it was titled [00:40:00] Is Enron Overvalued. In aftermath understated, , title. But , Bethany McLean: , I joked that that story should have won, won, won awards for the NICU title and business journalism history. , given that the company was bankrupt six months later was overpricedDwarkesh Patel: Um, uh, well, let me ask a bigger question about finance in general. So finance is 9% of gdp, I believe. How much of that is the productive use and thinking and allocation of the, uh, the capital towards their most productive ends? And how much of that is just zero sum or negative sum games? Um, if, if you had to break that down, like, is 9% too high, do you think, or is it just.I think it's Bethany McLean: too high. I have no idea how to think about breaking it down to what the proper level should be. But I think there are other ways to think about how you can see that in past decades it hasn't been at the right level when you've had all sorts of smart kids. Um, Leaving, leaving business school and leaving college and heading into [00:41:00] finance and hedge funds and private equity is their career of choice.I think that's a sign that that finance is too big when it's sucking up too much of, of, of the talent of the country. Um, and when the rewards for doing it are so disproportionate relative to the rewards of of, of doing other things. Um, the counter to that is that there've also been a lot of rewards for starting businesses.And that's probably, I think, how you want it to be in a, in a product. In a productive economy. So I think the number is, is too high. I don't know how to think about what it should be other than what a, actually, a former Goldman Sachs partner said this to me when I was working on all the devils are here, and she said that finance is supposed to be like the, the substrata of our world.It's supposed to be the thing that enables other things to happen. It's not supposed to be the world itself. So the, the role of a financial system is to enable businesses to get started, to provide capital. That's what it's supposed to be. It's the lubricant that enables business, but it's not supposed to be the thing itself.Right. And it's become the thing itself. [00:42:00] You've, you've, you've, you've, you've got a problem. Um, um, and I think the other, Dwarkesh Patel: there's your article about crypto , that paragraph right there. . Bethany McLean: There you go. That's, that's a good, um, and I think, I think the other way, you, you, you can see, and perhaps this is way too simplistic, but the other way I've thought about it is that how can it be if you can run a hedge fund and make billions of dollars from, and have five people, 10 people, whatever it is, versus starting a company that employs people mm-hmm.and changes a neighborhood and provides jobs and, you know, provides a product that, that, that, that, that improves people's lives. It, it is a shame that too much of the talent and such a huge share of the financial rewards are going to the former rather than the latter. And that just can't mean good things for the future.Dwarkesh Patel: Yeah. Yeah. And I, you know, when people criticize technology, for example, for the idea that, you know, these people who would've been, I don't know, otherwise teachers or something, they're, you know, making half a million dollars at Google. [00:43:00] Um, and I think like when I was in India, people were using Google Maps to get through the streets in Mumbai, which is, which is unimaginable to me before going there that, you know, you would be able to do that with, um, a service built out of Silicon Valley.And so, Yeah, I think that actually is a good allocation of capital and talent. I, I'm not, I'm not sure about finance. Um, yeah, Bethany McLean: I think I, I, I agree with you. I think there are other problems with Google and with the, the social media giants, but, but they are real businesses that employ people, that make products that have had, uh, huge.Um, impact on on, on people's, on people's lives. So in, in that sense, it's very different than a private equity firm, for instance, and especially private equity, even more so than hedge funds draws my ire. Mm-hmm. , because I think one of the reasons they, that it, they've been able to make part of the financialization of our economy has been due to super, super low interest rates and low interest rates that have enabled so many people to make so much money in finance are not, they're just a gift.It wasn't because these people were uniquely smart, they just [00:44:00] found themselves in a great moment in time. And the fact that they now think they're really smart because money makes me crazy. Dwarkesh Patel: Um, are Fanny and Freddy America special purpose entities? Are they our Alameda? It's just the way we hide our debt and uh, that's interesting.Yeah. Bethany McLean: Well, I guess we, you know what? I don't know anymore because, so I last wrote about them when was it in 2016 and I don't know now. No, you're right. Their, their debt is still off, off, off balance sheet. So Yeah, in a lot of ways they, they were. . I would argue though that the old Fanny and Freddy were structured more honestly than, than the new Fanny and Freddy, that it really is conservatorship that have made them, um, that have made them America's off balance sheet entities, because at least when they were their own independent entities.Yes, there was this odd thing known as the implicit guarantee, which is when you think about, back to your point about efficient markets, how can you possibly believe there's an as such a thing as an efficient market when their [00:45:00] Fanny and Freddy had an implicit guarantee, meaning it wasn't real. There was no place where it was written down that the US government would bail Fanny and Freddie out in a crisis, and everybody denied that it existed and yet it did exist.Yeah. Dwarkesh Patel: No, but we, I feel like that confirms the official market hypothesis, right? The, the market correctly, they thought that mortgages backed by Fannie and Freddy would have governments. Uh, okay, okay. You might be father Bethany McLean: and they did . You might be right. I, I, I think what I was getting at you, you might be right.I think what I was getting at is that it is such a screwed up concept. I mean, how can you possibly, when I first, when people were first explaining this to me, when I first read about Fanny and Freddie, I was like, no, no, wait. This is American capitalism . This is, no, wait. What? I don't, I don't understand . Um, um, so yeah, but I, I, I, I think that Fanny and Freddie, at least with shareholders that were forced to bear some level of, of the risks were actually a more honest way of going about this whole screwed up American way of financing mortgages than, than the current setup is.Dwarkesh Patel: What [00:46:00] is the future of these firms? Or are they just gonna say in conservatorship forever? Or is there any developments there? Well, what's gonna happen to them? Bethany McLean: The lawsuit, the latest lawsuit that could have answered that in some ways ended in a mistrial. Um, I don't think, I don't, I don't think unfortunately anybody in government sees any currency in, and I mean, currency in the broad sense, not in the literal sense of money in, in taking this on.And unfortunately, what someone once said to me about it, I think remains true and it's really depressing, but is that various lawmakers get interested in Fannie and Freddy. They engage with it only to figure out it's really, really goddamn complicated. Mm-hmm. and that, and that any kind of solution is gonna involve angering people on one side of the aisle or another and potentially angering their constituent constituents.And they slowly back away, um, from doing anything that could, that, that could affect change. So I think we have a really unhealthy situation. I don't think it's great for these two [00:47:00] entities to be in conservatorship, but at this point, I'm not sure it's gonna change. Dwarkesh Patel: Yep. Speaking of debt and mortgages, um, so total household debt in the United States has been, uh, climbing recently after it's, it's like slightly d decline after 2008, but I think in quarter three alone it increased 350 billion and now it's at 16.5 trillion.Uh, the total US household debt, should we worried about this? Are, are, are we gonna see another sort of collapse because of this? Or what, what should we think about this? Bethany McLean: I don't know. I don't know how to think about that because it's too tied up in other things that no one knows. Are we going to have a recession?How severe is the recession going to be? What is the max unemployment rate that we're gonna hit if we do, if we do have a recession? And all of those things dictate how to, how to think about that number. I. Think consumer debt is embedded in the bowels of the financial system in the same way mortgages were.And in the end, the, the, the [00:48:00] problem with the financial crisis of 2008, it wasn't the losses on the mortgages themselves. It was the way in which they were embedded in the plumbing of the financial system. Mm-hmm. and ways that nobody understood. And then the resulting loss of confidence from the fact that nobody had understood that slash lies had been told about, about that.And that's what caused, that's what caused everything to, to collapse. Consumer debt is a little more visible and seeable and I, I don't think that it has that same, um, that same opaque quality to it that, that mortgage backed securities did. I could be, I could be wrong. I haven't, I haven't, I haven't dug into it enough, enough to understand enough to understand that.But you can see the delinquencies starting to climb. Um, I mean, I guess you could on, on, on mortgages as well, but there was this, there was this profound belief with mortgages that since home prices would never decline, there would never be losses on these instruments because you could always sell the underlying property for more than you had [00:49:00] paid for it, and therefore everything would be fine.And that's what led to a lot of the bad practices in the industry is that lenders didn't think they had to care if they were screwing the home buyer because they always thought they could take the home back and, and, and, and, and make more money on it. And consumer debt is, is unsecured. And so it's, it's, it's different.I think people think about it differently, but I'd have. I'd have to, I'd have to do some more homework to understand where consumer debt sits in the overall architecture of the financial industry. Dwarkesh Patel: I, I, I'm really glad you brought up this theme about what does the overall big picture look like? I feel like this is the theme of all your books that people will be, So obsessed with their subsection of their job or, or that ar area that they won't notice that, um, broader trends like the ones you're talking about.And in Enron it's like, why, why, why do we have all these special purpose entities? What is the total debt load of Enron? Um, or with the, you know, mortgage back securities a similar kind of thing, right? What, what, uh, maybe they weren't correlated in the past, [00:50:00] but what's that? Do we really think that there's really no correlation, um, uh, between, uh, delinquencies across the country?Um, so that, that kind of big picture, think. Whose job is that today? Is it journalists? Is it short sellers? Is it people writing on ck? Who's doing that? Is it anybody's job? Is, is it just like, uh, an important role with nobody assigned to it? Bethany McLean: I think it's the latter. I think it's an important role with nobody, with nobody assigned to it, and there there is a limit.I mean, , I hate to say this, it is not, uh, um, it is not an accident that many of my books have been written. That's probably not fair. It's not true of my book un fracking, but that some of my books have been written after the calamity happened. So they weren't so much foretelling the calamity as they were unpacking the calamity after it happened, which is a different role.And as I said at the start of our conversation, I think an important one to explain to people why this big, bad thing took, took place. But it's not prediction, I don't know, as people that were very good at, at prediction, um, they tried [00:51:00] to set up, what was it called? In the wake of the global financial crisis, they established this thing called fsoc, and now I'm forgetting what the acronym stands for.Financial Security Oversight Committee. And it's supposed to be this, this body that does think about these big picture. That thinks about the ways, the ways an exam, for example, in which mortgage backed securities were, um, were, were, were, were, were, were, were repopulating through the entire financial system and ways that would be cause a loss to be much more than a loss.That it wouldn't just be the loss of money and that security, it would echo and magnify. And so that there are people who are supposed to be thinking about it. But I think, I think it's, it's, it's really hard to see that and. In increasingly complex world, it's even, it's even harder than it was before, because the reverberations from things are really hard to map out in, in, in advance, and especially when some part of those reverberations are a loss of confidence, then all bets [00:52:00] are off because when confidence cracks, lots of things fall apart.But how do you possibly analyze in any quantitative way the the risk that that confidence will collapse? Mm-hmm. . So I think it's, I think, I think, I think it's difficult. That said, and of course I am talking my own book here, I don't think that the lack of the, the increased financial problems of journalism really help matters in that respect, because in an ideal world, you want a lot of people out there writing and thinking about various pieces of this, and then maybe somebody can come along and see the.Pieces and say, oh my God, there's this big picture thing here that we all need to be thinking about. But there's, there's a kind of serendipity in the ability to do that one, that one that the chances, I guess the best way to say that is the chances of that serendipity are dramatically increased by having a lot of people out there doing homework, um, on the various pieces of the puzzle.And so I think in a world, particularly where local news has been decimated mm-hmm. , um, the [00:53:00] chances of that sort of serendipity are, are definitely lower. And people may think, oh, it doesn't matter. We still got national news. We've got the Washington Post, we've got the Wall Street Journal, we've got the New York Times.Um, I would love to have somebody do a piece of analysis and go back through the New York Times stories and see how many were sparked by lp, a piece in the local paper that maybe you wouldn't even notice from reading the New York Times piece, because it'd be in like the sixth paragraph that, oh yeah, credit should go to this person at this local paper who started writing about this.But if you no longer have the person at the local paper who started writing about this, You know, it's, it's, it's, it's less likely that the big national piece gets written. And I think that's a part of the implosion of local news, that people, a part of the cost of the implosion of local news that people don't really understand the idea that the national press functions at, at the same level, um, without local news is just not true.Dwarkesh Patel: Yeah. And, but even if you have the local news, and I, that's a really important point, but even if you have that local news, there still has to be somebody whose job it is to synthesize it all together. And [00:54:00] I'm curious, what is the training that requires? So you, I mean, your training is, you know, math and English major and then working at working in investment banking.Um, is that the, uh, I mean, obviously the anecdotal experience then equals one, seems that that's great training for synthesizing all these pieces together. But what is the right sort of education for somebody who is thinking about the big picture? Bethany McLean: I, I don't, I don't know.And there may be, there may be, there are probably multiple answers to that question, right? There's probably no one, one right answer for me. In, in the end. My, my math major has proven to be pivotal. Even though , my mother dug up these, um, my, my parents were moving and so my mother was going through all her stuff and she dug up these, some my math work from, from college.Literally, if it weren't for the fact that I recognized my own handwriting, I would not recognize these pages on pages of math formula and proofs. And they're like, get gibberish to me now. So , but I, but I still think that math has, so I do not wanna exaggerate my mathematical ability at this stage of [00:55:00] the game.It's basically no. But I do think that doing math proofs any kind of formal, any kind of training and logic is really, really important because the more you've been formally trained in logic, the more you realize when there are piece is missing and when something isn't quite, isn't quite adding on, it just forces you to think in, in a way that is, that in a way that connects the dots.Um, because you know, if you're moving from A to B and B doesn't follow a, you, you understand that B doesn't follow a And I think that that, that, that kind of training is, is really, really important. It's what's given. , whatever kind of backbone I have as a journalist is not because I like to create controversy and like to make people mad.I actually don't. It's just because something doesn't make sense to me. And so maybe it doesn't make sense to me because I'm not getting it, or it doesn't make sense to me because B doesn't actually follow, follow away, and you're just being told that it does. And so I think that, I think that training is, is really, really important.Um, I also have, have often thought [00:56:00] that another part of training is realizing that basic rule that you learned in kindergarten, which is, um, you know, believe your imagination or you know, your imagine follow your imagination. Because the truth is anything can happen. And I think if you look at business history over the last couple of decades, it will be the improbable becoming probable.Truth over and over and over again. I mean, the idea that Enron could implode one of the biggest, supposedly most successful companies in corporate America could be bankrupt within six months. The, from its year, from its stock price high. The idea that the biggest, most successful, um, financial institutions on wall, on Wall Street could all be crumbling into bankruptcy without the aid of the US government.The idea that a young woman with no college degree and no real experience in engineering could create, uh, uh, um, could create a machine that was going to revolutionize blood testing and land on the cover of every business magazine, and that this [00:57:00] whole thing could turn out to be pretty much a fraud. The entire idea of ftx, I mean, over and over again, these things have happened.Forget Bernie Madoff if you had told people a year ago that FTX was gonna implode six months ago, three months ago, people would've been like, no, no, no, no, no, no, no. And so I think just that, that, that, that knowledge that the improbable happens over and over again is also a really fundamental, fundamentally important.Dwarkesh Patel: If we're con continuing on the theme of ftx, I, I interviewed him about four or five months ago.Wow. And this is one of these interviews that I'm really, I'm, I don't know if embarrass is the right word, but I knew things then that I could have like asked, poked harder about. But it's also the kind of thing where you look back in retrospect and you're. If it had turned out well, it's, it's not obvious what the red flags are.Um, while you're in the moment, there's things you can look back at the story of Facebook and how, you know, Marcus Zuckerberg acted in the early days of Facebook and you could say, if the th

This was one of my favorite episodes ever.Bethany McLean was the first reporter to question Enron's earnings, and she has written some of the best finance books out there. We discuss:* The astounding similarities between Enron & FTX,* How visionaries are just frauds who succeed (and which category describes Elon Musk),* What caused 2008, and whether we are headed for a new crisis,* Why there's too many venture capitalists and not enough short sellers,* And why history keeps repeating itself.McLean is a contributing editor at Vanity Fair (see her articles here) and the author of The Smartest Guys in the Room, All the Devils Are Here, Saudi America, and Shaky Ground.Watch on YouTube. Listen on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or your favorite podcast platform.Follow McLean on Twitter. Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes. If you enjoyed this episode, please share. Helps out a ton.Timestamps(0:04:37) - Is Fraud Over? (0:11:22) - Shortage of Shortsellers(0:19:03) - Elon Musk - Fraud or Visionary?(0:23:00) - Intelligence, Fake Deals, & Culture(0:33:40) - Rewarding Leaders for Long Term Thinking(0:37:00) - FTX Mafia?(0:40:17) - Is Finance Too Big?(0:44:09) - 2008 Collapse, Fannie & Freddie(0:49:25) - The Big Picture(1:00:12) - Frackers Vindicated?(1:03:40) - Rating Agencies(1:07:05) - Lawyers Getting Rich Off Fraud(1:15:09) - Are Some People Fundamentally Deceptive?(1:19:25) - Advice for Big Picture ThinkersTranscriptThis transcript was autogenerated and thus may contain errors.Dwarkesh Patel: the rapid implosion of a company worth tens of billions of dollars. Insider dealing and romantic entanglements between sister companies, a politically generous c e o, who is well connected in Washington, the use of a company's own stock as its collateral, the attempt, the short-lived attempt to get bought out by a previous competitor, and the fraudulent abuse of mark to market account.[00:01:00] We are not talking about ftx, we are talking about Enron, which my guest today, Bethany McClean, uh, first broke the story of and has written an amazing and detailed book about, uh, called The Smartest Guys in the Room. And she has also written, uh, a book about the housing crisis. All the devils are here, a book about Fannie and Freddy Shaky Ground, and a book about fracking Saudi America, all of which we'll get into.She's, in my opinion, the best finance nonfiction writer out there, and I'm really, really excited to have this conversation now. So, Bethany, thank you so much for coming on the podcast. Bethany McLean: Thank you so much for the, for the probably Undeserved Conference, for having me on the show. Dwarkesh Patel: My first question, what are the odds that Sbf read the smartest guys in the room and just followed it as a playbook, given the similarities there?Bethany McLean: You, you know, I, I love that idea. I have to, I have to admit, I guess I love that idea. I don't know. That would make me responsible for what, for what happened, . So maybe I don't love that idea. L let me take that back . [00:02:00] Anyway, but I, I, I actually think that, that, that even if he had read the book, it would never have occurred to him that, that there was a similarity because self-delusion is such a, Strong component of all of these stories of business gone wrong.It's very rare that you have one of the characters at the heart of this who actually understands what they're doing and understands that they're moving over into the dark side and thinks about the potential repercussions of this and chooses this path. Anyway, that's usually not the way these stories go.So it's entirely possible that Sbf studied Enron, knew all about it, and never envisioned that there were any similarities between that and what he was doing. Dwarkesh Patel: Oh, that's a fascinating, um, which I guess raises the question of what are we doing when we're documenting and trying to learn from books like yours?If somebody who is a, about to commit the same exact kind of thing can read that book and not realize that he's doing the same exact thing, is there something that just [00:03:00] prevents us from learning the lessons of history that we, we can never just, uh, get the analogy right, and we're just guided by our own delusions.Bethany McLean: Wasn't there a great quote that history rhymes, but it doesn't repeat. I'm Yeah. Relying on who it is who said that, but I think that's, that's absolutely true. Oh, I think it's important for all of us, those of us who are not gonna find ourselves at the center of, uh, giant fraud or, so, I hope, I think my time for that has passed.Maybe not you, but, um, I think it's important for all of us to understand what went wrong. And I, I do think these, I do think just there, there's a great value and greater understanding of the world without necessarily a practical payoff for it. So I think when something goes wrong on a massive societal level, it's really important to try to, to try to explain it.Human beings have needed narrative since the dawn of time, and we need narrative all, all, all the more now we need, we need to make sense of the world. So I like to believe. Process of making, trying to make sense of the world. , um, [00:04:00] has a value in, in and of itself. Maybe there is small, some small deterrence aspect to it in that I often think that if people understand more the process by which things go go wrong, that it isn't deliberate, that it's not bad people setting out to do bad things.It's human beings, um, at first convincing themselves even that they're doing the right thing and then ending up in a situation that they, they never meant to be in. And maybe on the margin that does, maybe on the margin that does, that does help because maybe it has deterred some people who, who would've started down that path, but for the fact that they now see that that's the, that's the usual path.Dwarkesh Patel: Yeah. Yeah. That actually raises the next question I wanted to ask you. Bern Hobart, uh, he's a finance writer as well. He wrote a blog post, um, about, uh, I mean this was before FTX obviously, and he was talking about Enron and he said in the end, it actually looks like we fixed the precise problem. Enron represented.Nobody I know solely looks at gap [00:05:00] financials. Everybody ultimately models based on free cash flow, we're much more averse to companies that set up a deliberate conflict of interest between management and shareholders. And I guess there's a way in which you can read that and say, oh, it doesn't FTX prove I'm wrong.But, you know, there's another way you can look at it is that FTX deliberately set up outside the us. So there's a story to be told that actually we learned the lessons of Enron and, you know, uh, so remains obviously worked. Uh, that's why, you know, they were in The Bahamas and we haven't seen the scale fraud of that scale in, you know, the continental United States.Um, do, do you think that the FTX saga and I guess the absence of other frauds of that scale in America shows that. The regulations and this changed business and investment practices in the aftermath of Enron have actually. Bethany McLean: Well, I think they've probably worked in narrowly, written in, in the way in which the writer you quoted articulated, I think it would be very hard for the cfo, F O of a publicly traded company to set up other private [00:06:00] equity firms that he ran, that did all their business with his company.Because everybody would say That's Enron and it would be completely. On the nose. And so, and Sarbanes Oxley in the sense of, in the sense of helping to reign in corporate fraud of the sort that was practiced by Enron, which was this abuse of very specific accounting rules. Um, I think I, I, I think that worked.But you know, you say there hasn't been fraud on a scale like Enron up until perhaps f ftx, but you're forgetting the global financial crisis. Yeah. And then the end, the line between what happened at Enron. and, and what happened in the global financial crisis. It's not a matter of black and white. It's not a matter of, one thing was clear cut fraud and one thing great.We love these practices. Isn't this fantastic? This is the way we want business to operate. They're both somewhere in the murky middle. You know, a lot of what happened at Enron wasn't actually outright fraud. I've coined this phrase, legal fraud to describe, um, to describe what it is that, that, that, that happened at Enron.And a lot of what [00:07:00] happened in the global financial crisis was legal, hence the lack of prosecutions. But it's also not behavior that that leads to a healthy market or mm-hmm. , for that matter, a a a a healthy society. And so there's a reason that you had Sarbanes Oxley and what was it, eight short, short years later you had Dodd-Frank and so Riri broadly.I'm not sure Sarbanes actually did that much good. And what I mean by that is when President George Bush signed it into law in the Rose Garden, he gave this speech about how investors were now protected and everything was great and your, your ordinary investors could take comfort that the laws were meant to protect them from wrongdoing.And you compare that to the speech that President Barack Obama gave eight years later when he signed Don Frank into law in the Rose Garden. And it's remarkably similar that now ordinary investors can count on the rules and regulations keeping themself from people who are prey on their financial wellbeing.[00:08:00] And I don't think it was, it's, it's true in either case because our markets, particularly modern markets move and evolve so quickly that the thing that's coming out of left field to get you is never gonna be the thing you are protecting against. Mm. . Dwarkesh Patel: , but given the fact that Enron, as you say, was committing legal fraud, is it possible that the government, um, when they prosecuted skilling and Fastow and lay, they in fact, We're not, uh, they, they prosecuted them to a greater extent than the law as written at the time would have warranted.In other words, were, uh, was there something legally invalid in the, in this, in the quantity of sentence that they got? Is it possible? Bethany McLean: So that's a really, it, it's, it's a, I I get what you're asking. I think it's a really tricky question because I think in absolute terms, um, Enron needed to be prosecuted and needed to be prosecuted aggressively.And while I say it was legal fraud, that is for the most part, there was actually real fraud around, around, uh, but it's on the margin. It doesn't [00:09:00] entire, it doesn't explain the entirety of Enron's collapse. Much of what they did was using and abusing the accounting rules in order to create an appearance of economic reality.Nothing to do with actual, with actual reality. But then there was actual fraud in the sense that Andy Fasta was stealing money from these partnerships to benefit himself. And they were, if you believe, the core tenant of the prosecution, which was their, this agreement called Global Galactic that was signed by, that was between Andy fau and Jeff Skilling, where Jeff agreed that Andy's partnerships would never lose money.Then that invalidated all of the, all of the accounting, and that's the chief reason that that. That skilling was, was, was convicted, um, was that the jury believed the existence of this, of this, of this agreement that in, um, one set of insider stock sales, which, which we can talk about, which was also a really key moment relative to the, so in absolute terms, I don't know, it's, it's hard for me to, to say there was [00:10:00] such, Enron was such a, to a degree that is still surprising to me, such a, a watershed moment in our, in our country, far beyond business itself.it, it, it caused so much insecurity that about our retirements, our retirement assets safe. Can you trust the company where you work? That I think the government did, did have to prosecute aggressively, but relative to the financial crisis where a lot of people made off with a lot of money and never had to give any of it back, does it seem fair that, that, that Jeff Skilling went to jail for over a decade and no one involved in a major way in the financial crisis paid any price whatsoever?People didn't even really have to give up that much of the money they made then. Then it seems a little bit unfair. Yes, so I think it's, it's an absolute versus a relative Dwarkesh Patel: question. Yeah. Yeah. By the way, who do you think made more money? Um, the investment banks, uh, like, uh, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, um, from doing, [00:11:00] providing their services to Enron as the stock was going up, or Jim Chanos from shorting the stock?In absolute terms, who made more money? Bethany McLean: Oh, I think the investment banks for sure. I mean, they made, they made so much money in investment banking fees from, from, from Enron. But, you know, it's a good question. . , it's a good question actually, because I think Jim made a lot of money too, so, Dwarkesh Patel: Yeah. Yeah. I mean, I, I, you've spoken about, I guess the usefulness and the shortage of short sellers des a sort of, uh, corrective on irrational exuberance.And I'm curious why you think that shortage exists in the first place. Like, if you believe in the efficient market hypothesis, you should think that, you know, if some company has terrible financials and implausible numbers, then people would be lining up to short it. And then you would never have a phenomenon like Enron.And so it's, it's, you know, it's so odd that you can. , you know, reporters who are basically ahead of the market in terms of predicting what's gonna happen. Uh, well, uh, how do you square that with like the efficient [00:12:00] market hypothesis? Well, do you Bethany McLean: believe in the efficient market hypothesis, ? Dwarkesh Patel: I, I, I'd like to, but I'm like trying to , trying to wrap my head around Enron.Bethany McLean: I, I'm, I'm, I'm, I'm not sure how you. Can, unless you, unless you adopt Warren Buffett's point of view, and I'm gonna mangle the quote because, uh, but, but it's that the market in the short term is a voting machine in the long term. It's a weighing machine, right? Mm-hmm. , or is it the other way around? . Anyway, but the idea is that the market may be very efficient for a long, very inefficient, for a long period of time.But, but it does actually, rationality does actually work in, in, in the end. And I think I might believe that, but isn't it John Maynard Cas who said the market can remain irrational for a lot longer than you can remain solvent. And so I think that's true too. I think believing that the market is efficient and rational in the short term is just obviously wrongUm, but back to your question about short sellers, which is, which is interesting, you know, I think part of it is that there is still this, um, there certainly was a couple of [00:13:00] decades ago, and I think it still exists, this idea that. Owning stocks is Mom, American, and apple pie in shorting stocks somehow is bad and evil and rooting, rooting against America.And I remember going back to the Enron days, someone, people criticizing me, even other people in the press saying, but you took a tip from a short seller. They're biased. And I. , I would say. But, but, but wait, the analysts who have buy ratings on stocks and the portfolio managers who own those stocks, they're biased too.They want the stocks to go up. Everybody's biased. So the trick as a journalist is getting information from all sides and figuring out who you think is right and what makes sense. But it's not avoiding anybody with any bias. But it was really interesting that people saw the bias on the part of short sellers and did not see it on the part of, of, of Longs.And I think there is that preconception that exists broadly, that somehow you are doing something wrong and you're somehow rooting for a company's failure. And that this is, I don't know, anti-American if you, if, if you [00:14:00] short a stock. And so I think that's part of why there's, there's, there's a shortage of shortage of, of, of short sellers.Um, I think also, I mean, we've had. Incredible, unprecedented bull market for the last four decades as a result of falling interest rates, and especially in the decade before the pandemic hit, it was very, very difficult to make money shorting anything because everything went to the moon. Didn't matter if its numbers were good, if it was eventually unmasked to be somewhat fraudulent, , it stocks just went to the moon anyway.The riskier the better. And so it is only diehard short sellers that have managed to stick it out . Yeah, and I think, I think lastly, Jim Chano said this to me once, and I, I think it's true that he could find, dozens of people who were skilled enough to come, smart enough to come work for him.There's no shortage of that. People who are technically skilled and really smart, but being able to be contrarian for a long period of time, especially when the market is going against you, is a different sort [00:15:00] of person. It that it requires a completely different mindset to have everybody in the world saying, you're wrong to be losing money because the stock is continuing to go up and to be able to hold fast to your conviction.And I think that's another, uh, part of the explanation for why there are fewer short sellers. Dwarkesh Patel: Yeah, and that raised an interesting question about. Uh, venture capital, for example, where, or private markets in general? Um, at least in the public markets, there's shorting maybe in shortage, but it, it is a possible mechanism, whereas, uh, I'm a programmer.So, you know, if, if like a one guy thinks the company's worth a hundred million dollars and everybody else thinks it's not, you know, the company will still be, uh, the price will still be said by the, you know, the person who's a believer. Um, does that increase the risk of some sort of bubble in venture capital and in technology?Um, and I guess in private markets generally, if they're, they're not public, is that something you worry about that they're, they will be incredible bubbles built up if there's a lot of money that's floating around in these Bethany McLean: circles. . Well, I think we're seeing that now, [00:16:00] right? And I don't think it's a coincidence that FTX and Theranos were not publicly traded companies, right?Mm-hmm. . Um, there's a certain sort of, uh, black box quality to these companies because people aren't charting them and aren't, aren't, and aren't, you know, whispering to journalists about that. That there's something wrong here and there aren't publicly available financials for people to dig through and look, look, and look at the numbers.So now I don't think that's a coincidence. And I do think this gigantic move into private assets has been, um, probably not great for the, for the, for the, for the. for the, for the safety of the system. And you'd say, well, it's just institutional investors who can afford to lose money who are losing money.But it's really not because institutional investors are just pension fund money. Mm-hmm. and in some cases now mutual fund money. So that distinction that the people who are investing in this stuff can afford to lose it is not really true. Um, so I don't, I don't like that rationalization. I think we're gonna see how that plays out.There was [00:17:00] just a really good piece in the Economist about private equity marks on their portfolio companies and how they are still looked to be much higher than what you would think they should be given the carnage in the market. And so all of what, what actually things are really worth in private markets, both for venture capital firms and for private equity firms, Is absent another, another bubble starting, starting in the markets.I think we're gonna see how that plays out over, over the next year. And it might be a wake up call for, for a lot of people. Um, you know, all that, all that said, it's an interesting thing because investors have been very complicit in this, right? In the sense that a lot of investors are absolutely delighted to have prep, to have their, their private, um, their private investments marked at a high level.They don't have to go to the committee overseeing the investments and say, look, I lost 20% of your money the way they might, um, if, if the numbers were public. And so that the ability of these of private investors to smooth as they call it, the, the, the returns is, is it's [00:18:00] been, it's been part of the appeal.It hasn't been a negative, it's been a positive. And so I would say that investors who wanted this moving are. Art might be getting what they deserve except for the pointing made earlier that it isn't, it isn't their money. It's, it's the money of, of teachers and firefighters and individual investors a around the country, and that's, that's problematic.Dwarkesh Patel: Yeah. Yeah. Being in the world of technology and being around people in it has. made me, somewhat shocked when I read about these numbers from the past. For example, when I'm reading your books and they're detailing things that happened in the nineties or the two thousands, and then you realize that the salary that Hank Paulson made a c e o of Goldman, or that skilling made as, you know, um, c e o of Enron, you know, I, it's like I have friends who are my age, like 22 year olds who are raising seed rounds, , that are as big as like these people's salaries.And so it just feels like the, these books were, you have $50 billion frauds or, you know, hundreds of billions of dollars of collapse and the individuals there, um, it just feels like they, it's missing a few zeros, uh, [00:19:00] because of the delusion of the private markets. But, um, but speaking of short sellers and speaking of private equity, um, I think it'd be interesting to talk about sbf.So, you know, your 2018 Vanity Fair article I thought was really interesting about, you know, sbf factory in Buffalo H How, how do you think back on Tesla and sbf now, given the fact that. The stock did continue to rise afterwards, and the factory, I believe, was completed and it's, I hired the 1500 or so people that had promised New York State, uh, is sbf just a fraud?Who can pull it off? And so he's a visionary. How, how do you think about sbf in the aftermath? Bethany McLean: So I don't think that's right about Buffalo and I have to look, but I don't think they ended up, I mean, the Solar City business that Tesla has pretty much collapsed. I don't think people haven't gotten their roofs.There was just a piece about how they're canceling some of their roof installations. So sbf has repeatedly made grand visions about that business that haven't played out. And I will check this for you post the podcast, but I don't think [00:20:00] if there is employment at that factory in, in Buffalo, it's not because they're churn out solar, solar, solar products that are, that are, that are doing.What was originally promised. So I guess I, I think about that story in a, in a couple of ways. It definitely, um, it was not meant to be a piece about Tesla. It was meant to be a piece that shown a little bit of light on how sbf operates and his willingness to flout the rules and his reliance on government subsidies, despite the fact that he, um, presents himself as this libertarian free, free, free market free marketeer, and his willingness to lie to, to, to, on some level enrich himself, which also runs counter to the Elon sbf narrative that he doesn't care about making money for, for himself.Because the main reason for Teslas to by Solar City was that Solar City had the main reason, was it Tes, that was, that Solar City had, that, that sbf and his, and his and his relatives had extended the these loans to Solar City that were gonna go. [00:21:00] There were gonna be lo all the money was gonna be lost at Solar City when bankrupt.And by having Tesla buy it, sbf was able to bail himself out, um, as, as as well. And I also think a good reason for the, for the, for, and it brings us to the present time, but a reason for the acquisition was that sbf knows that this image of himself as the invincible and vulnerable who can always raise money and whose companies always work out in the end, was really important.And if Solar City had gone bankrupt, it would've cast a big question mark over over sbf, over over the sbf narrative. And so I think he literally couldn't afford to let Solar City go bankrupt. Um, all of that said, I have, I have been, and was I, I was quite skeptical of Tesla and I thought about it in, in, in, in.And I always believed that the product was great. I just, mm-hmm. wasn't sure about the company's money making potential. And I think that, that, it's something I started thinking about, um, background, the Solar City time, maybe earlier, but this line, something I've talked about [00:22:00] before. But this line between a visionary and a fraudster.You know, you think that they're on two opposite ends of the spectrum, but in reality they're where the ends of the circle meet. Characteristics of one. One has that many of the characteristics of the other. And sometimes I think the only thing that really separates the two is that the fraudster is able to keep getting mo raising money in order to get through the really difficult time where he or she isn't telling the truth.And then they, that person goes down in history as a visionary. Um, but because no one ever looks back to the moment in time when they were lying, the fraudster gets caught in the middle. Um, so Enron's Lo lost access to to the capital markets lost AC access to funding as the market collapsed after the.com boom.And people began to wonder whether skilling was telling the truth about Enron's broadband business. And then there were all the disclosures about Andy fasa partnerships if Enron had been able to continue raising money, Business of Enron's called Enron Broadband might well have been Netflix. It was Netflix ahead of its time.So Enron just got caught in the middle and all [00:23:00] the fraud, all the fraud got exposed . Um, but that's not because Jeff Skilling wasn't a visionary who had really grand plans for, for, for, for the future. So I think sbf falls somewhere in that spectrum of, of, of fraudster and visionary. And what's gonna be really interesting why I said that this, we bring it to the present time about what happens to the mu narrative.If something fails is what happens. Yeah. Is as the world watch watches Twitter implode, um, what does that mean then for the Elon sbf narrative overall? Dwarkesh Patel: Yeah. Yeah. Um, going back to the Smartest Guys is the Room, the title obviously suggests something about. The, I guess in general, the ability and the likelihood of very smart people committing fraud or things of that sort.Um, but you know, Begar Jones has this book called Hi Mind, where he talks about how the smarter people are more likely to cooperate in prisoners dilemma type situations. They have longer time preference. And one of the things you've written about is the problem in corporate America is people having shorter, [00:24:00] um, uh, you know, doing two too big time discounting.So, uh, given that trend we see in general of greater Cooperativeness, um, and other kinds of traits of more intelligent people, do you think the reason we often find people like S B F and skilling running big frauds just by being very intelligent, is it just that on, on average smarter people, maybe less likely to commit fraud, but when they do commit fraud, they do it at such garat scales and they're able to do it at such gar scales that it just brings down entire empires?How, how, how do you think about the relationship between intelligence and fraud? . Bethany McLean: That's interesting. Um, I'm not sure I know a coherent answer to that. Um, smartest guys in the room as a title was a little bit tongue in cheek. It wasn't meant to say, these guys actually are the smartest guys in the room. It was, it, it was a little bit, it was a little bit ironic, but that doesn't take away from the really good question that you asked, which is what, what, what is that relationship?I, I mean, I think if you look at the history of corporate fraud, you are not going to find unintelligent people having [00:25:00] been the masterminds behind this. You're gonna find really, really, really smart, even brilliant people having, having, having been, been behind it, maybe some at part of that is this linkage between the visionary and the fraud star that so many of these, of these corporate frauds are people who have qualities of the visionary and to.The qualities of, of a visionary, you have to have a pretty, pretty, pretty, pretty high intelligence. Um, and I do think so many of these stories are, are about then self delusion. So I don't think smart people are any less likely to suffer from self delusion than dumb people. And they're probably more likely to, because you can rationalize, you know, the smart person's ability to rationalize just about anything they wanna rational rationalize is pretty profound.Whereas perhaps someone who doesn't have quite the same, the same brain power isn't gonna be able to create a narrative under which their actions are blameless and they're doing the right thing. So I think sometimes, so maybe there is some sort of relationship [00:26:00] there that somebody more qualified than I am would have to study between smart people's ability to, to, to rationalize just about anything as a way of, as part of the path to self delusion and part of the path by which these things happen.Yeah, that's completely, that's completely , that's Bethany theory. There's absolutely nothing to back that . I'm just Dwarkesh Patel: well clear. Let's do some more speculation. So, um, one of the things, uh, John Ray talked about in his testimony, um, was it two days ago where he said that, you know, FTX had done $5 billion of investments and deals in the last year, and most of those investments were worth a fraction of the value that FTX paid for them.And we see this also in, obviously in Enron, right? With, uh, broadband and with, um, ul, or is that how pronounce it, but basically their international department. Yeah. Um, what is this, uh, this obsession with deal making for its own sake? Is that to appease investors and make them think a lot's going on, is that because of [00:27:00] the hubris of the founder, of just wanting to set up a big empire as fast as possible, even if you're getting a bad sticker price?What, why do we see this pattern of just, you know, excessive deal making for its own sake? Bethany McLean: That's an interesting question too. I'm not sure that that's, um, limited to companies that go splat dramatically. There's a lot of, a lot of deal making in, in corporate America has that same frenzied quality. Um, I haven't seen an updated study on, on this in a, in a long time, but, you know, I began my career working as an analyst in an m and a department at at at Goldman Sachs.And. Definitely deals are done for the sake of doing deals. And I once joked that synergies are kind of like UFOs. A lot of people claim to have seen them, but there's no proof that they actually exist. , and again, I haven't seen an updated study on, on, on this, but there was one years back that showed that most m and a transactions don't result in increased value for shareholders.And most synergies, most promised synergies never materialize. [00:28:00] Just getting bigger for the sake of getting bigger and doing deals for the short term value of showing Wall Street a projection. That earnings are gonna be so much higher even after the cost of the debt that you've taken on. And that they're these great synergies that are gonna come about from, from combining businesses.So I don't know that either the frenzy deal doing or deal doing deals gone wrong is, um, solely limited to people who are committing fraud. , I think it's kinda across the spectrum. , . Dwarkesh Patel: Um, um, well one, one thing I find interesting about your books is how you detail that. And correct me if this is the wrong way to read them, but that, uh, incentives are not the only thing that matter.You know, there there's this perception that, you know, we've set up bad incentives for these actors and that's why they did bad things. But also, um, the power of one individual to shape a co co company's culture and the power of that culture to enable bad behavior, whether scaling at Enron or with Clarkson Right at Moody's.Yeah. Um, is that a good, good way of reading your books or how, how do you think [00:29:00] about the relative importance of culture and incentive? Bethany McLean: I think that's really fair. But incentives are part of culture, right? If, if you've set up a culture where, where how you're valued is what you get paid, I think it's a little, it's a little difficult to separate those two things out because, because the, the incentives do help make the culture, but for sure culture is incredibly, um, incredibly compelling.I've often thought and said that if I had, when I was leaving my short lived career in investment banking, if I had, if I had gotten in some of the head hunters I was talking to, if one of them had said, there's this great, really energetic, interesting energy company down in Houston, , why don't interview there?If I had gone there, would I have been a whistleblower or would I have been a believer? And I'd like to believe I would've been a whistleblower, but I think it's equally likely that I would've been a believer. Culture is so strong. It creates this. What's maybe a miasma that you can't see outside?I remember a guy I talked to who's a trader at Enron, really smart guy, and he [00:30:00] was like, after the, after the bankruptcy, he said, of course, if we're all getting paid based on creating reported earnings and there's all this cash going out the door in order to do these deals that are creating reported earnings, and that's the culture of the entire firm, of course it's not gonna work economically.He said, I never thought about it. . It just didn't, it didn't, it didn't occur to me. And I think the more compelling the CEO o the more likely you are to have that kind of mass delusion. I mean, there's a reason cult exist, right? . We, we are as human beings, remarkably susceptible to.Visionary leaders. It's just, it's the way the human brain is wired. We, we wanna believe, and especially if somebody has the ability to put a vision forward, like Jeff Gilling did at Enron, like Elizabeth Holmes did it Theranos like SPF F did, where you feel like you are in the service of something greater by helping this, vision, , actualize then, then you're, particularly susceptible.And I think that is the place where [00:31:00] incentives don't quite explain things. That is, there is this very human desire to matter, to do something important. Mm-hmm to be doing something that's gonna change the world. And when somebody can tap into that desire in people that feeling that what you're doing isn't just work in a paycheck and the incentives you have, but I mean, I guess it is part of the incentive, but that you're part of some greater good.That's incredibly powerful. Yeah. Dwarkesh Patel: It's what we all speaking of. We all wanna matter. . Yeah. Speaking of peoples psychology, uh, crime and punishment, underrated or overrated as a way to analyze the psychology of people like scaling and S B F or maybe SBF specifically because of the utilitarian nature of SB F'S crime?Um, Bethany McLean: I think it's, I think it's underrated, overrated. I'm not sure anybody. , I'm not sure anybody has ever proven that jail sentences for white collar criminals do anything to deter subsequent white collar crime. Mm-hmm. , and I think one part of this is the self delusion that I've, that I talked about. Nobody thinks, [00:32:00] oh, I'm doing the same thing as Jeff Skilling did at Enron, and if I, and if I do this, then I too might end up in jail.Therefore, I don't wanna do this. I just don't think that's the way the, the, the, the, the thought process works. I think Elizabeth Holmes at Theranos, probably for the most part, convinced herself that this was going to work, and that if you just push forward and push hard enough and keep telling people what they wanna hear and keep being able to raise money, it's gonna work.You know, if. . If, if you pause to think, well, what if it doesn't work and I've lied and I go to jail, then, then you'd stop right, right then and there. So I think that, I think that, that I'm, I'm not, I'm not sure it's much of a deterrent. I remember, and partly I'm, I'm biased because I remember a piece, my co-author Peter Alkin, and I wrote out right after Jess Gilling and Kenley were, were convicted and can lay, we're we're convicted.And we wrote a piece for Fortune in which we said that the entire world has changed. Now that corporate executives are, um, are, are put on high alert that behavior in the gray area will no longer be tolerated and that it will be aggressively prosecuted. And this was spring of [00:33:00] 2006 and the events that caused the global financial crisis were pretty well underway.It didn't. Do much to prevent the global financial crisis. Mm-hmm. , Enron's, Enron's jail time, didn't do anything to present, prevent, Elizabeth Holmes doesn't seem to have done anything to change what Sbf was doing. So I just, I, I just, I'm, I'm, I'm not sure, I'm sure a psychologist or somebody who specializes in studying white color crime could probably make a argument that refutes everything I said and that shows that has had a deterring effect.But I just, I just don't think that people who get themselves into this situation, con, con, consciously think, this is what I'm doing. Dwarkesh Patel: Yeah. Yeah. Um, speaking of other incentives, stock options, uh, you've spoken about how that creates short-term incentives for the executives who are making decisions. If you wanted to set up an instrument that aligned an executive or a leader's compensation with the long-term performance of a company, what would that look like?W would you have the options of less than 10 years instead of a [00:34:00] year? H how would you design it? How do you usually design a compensation scheme to award long-term thinking? Bethany McLean: If I could do that, I should ru rule the world . I think that very sweet. I think that is one of the really tough, um, problems confronting boards or anybody who is determining anybody who's determining stock options and that almost anybody who's determining compensation and that most compensation schemes seem to have really terrible unintended consequences.They look really good on paper. And then as they're implemented, it turns out that there was a way in which they accomplished exactly the opposite of, uh, thing the people who designing them wanted, wanted them to accomplish. I mean, if you think back to the advent of stock options, what could sound better?Right. Giving management a share of the company such that if, if, if shareholders did well, that they'd do well, nobody envisioned the ways in which stock options could be repriced. The ways in which meeting earnings targets could lead to gaming the ways in which the incentive of stock-based [00:35:00] compensation could lead to people trying to get anything they could in order to get the stock price higher and cash out when they're, as soon as their stock options vested.So, and even there was, there was, the whole valiant saga was fascinating on this front because the people who designed Mike Pearson's compensation package as ceo e o Valiant, they were convinced that this was absolutely the way to do it. And he got bigger and bigger, um, stock option incentives for hitting certain, for having the stock achieve certain levels.But of course, that creates this incredible bias to just get the stock to go up no matter, no matter what else you do. Um, it does seem to me that vesting over the long term is. is, is a much better way to go about things. But then do you create incentives for people to play games in order to get the stock lower at, at various points where there's about to be a stock optional board so they have a better chance of having directions be, be worth, be worth something over the long term.And do you, particularly on Wall Street there is this, or in firms where this sort of stuff matters the most? There [00:36:00] is this, there was this clearing out of dead wood that happened where people got paid and they got outta the way and made way for younger people. And I don't know, it was a harsh culture, but maybe it made sense on some level.And now at least I've been told with much longer vesting periods, you have people who don't wanna let go. And so you have more of a problem with people who should have retired, stick sticking around instead of in, in, instead of clearing out. And then it also becomes a question, How much money is, is enough.So if somebody is getting millions of dollars in short-term compensation and then they have a whole bunch more money tied up in long-term compensation, do the long-term numbers matter? At what point do they, do they, do they really matter? I mean, if you gave me $5 million today, I'm not so sure I'd really care if I were getting another $5 million in 10 years.Right. ? Yeah. So, so I think all of that is, is it, it's, I'm not, I'm not sure there's a perfect compensation system. All things considered though, I think longer term is, is probably better, [00:37:00] but. Dwarkesh Patel: Yeah, I didn't think about that downside of the long investing period. That's so interesting there. I guess there is no free lunch.Uh, so with Enron, um, it, it was clear that there was a lot of talent at the firm and that you had these companies and these trading firms launch at the aftermath by people who left Enron, kinder Morgan and John Arnold's, um, uh, Sintas, uh, that were wildly profitable and did well. Do you think we'll see the same thing with FTX, that while Sbf himself and maybe the, his close cadre were frauds, there actually was a lot of great trading and engineering talent there that are gonna start these very successful firms in the aftermath.Bethany McLean: That's, that's interesting. And just, just for the sake of clarification, kinder Morgan was actually started years before Enron's collapsed, when Rich Kinder, who was vying with Jeffs skilling in a sense, to become Chief Operating Officer. Um, Ken Lay, picked Jeffs skilling and Kinder left. Mm-hmm. and took a few assets and went to create Kinder, kinder Morgan.But your overall point, I'm just clarifying your overall point holds, there were a lot of people who [00:38:00] left Enron and went on to do, to have pretty, pretty remarkable careers. I think the answer with ftx, I bet there will be some for sure. But whether they will be in the crypto space, I guess depends on your views on the long-term viability of, of, of the crypto space.And I have never , it's funny is crypto exploded over the last couple of years. I was, I've been working on this book about the pandemic and it's been busy and difficult enough that I have not lifted my head to, to think about much else. And I always thought, I don't get it. I don't understand , I mean, I understand the whole argument about the blockchain being valuable for lots of transactions and I, I get that, but I never understood crypto itself and I thought, well, I just need to, as soon as this book is done, I just need to put a month into understanding this because it's obviously an important, important enough part of our world that I need to figure it out.So now I think, oh, Okay, maybe I didn't understand it for a reason and maybe, um, maybe there isn't anything to understand and I've just saved myself a whole life of crime because it's all gone. And you have [00:39:00] people like Larry Fink at BlackRock saying, whole industry is gonna implode. It's done. And certainly with the news today, this morning of finances auditor basically saying We're out.Um, I, I don't, I don't know how much of it was, how much of it was, is, was a Ponzi scheme. You might know better than I do. And so I don't know what's left after this whole thing implodes. It's a little bit like, there is an analogy here that when Enron imploded, yes, a lot of people went on to start other successful businesses, but the whole energy trading business is practiced by kind of under capitalized, um, um, energy firms went away and that never came back.Yeah. And so I, I, I don't, I don't know, I'm, it'll be, I, I don't know. What do you. The Dwarkesh Patel: time to be worried will be when Bethany McLean writes an article titled Is Bitcoin Overvalued for the Audience. My Moments on That ? Yeah, for the audience that, that was, I believe the first skeptical article about Enron's, um, stock price.Yeah. Uh, and it was titled [00:40:00] Is Enron Overvalued. In aftermath understated, , title. But , Bethany McLean: , I joked that that story should have won, won, won awards for the NICU title and business journalism history. , given that the company was bankrupt six months later was overpricedDwarkesh Patel: Um, uh, well, let me ask a bigger question about finance in general. So finance is 9% of gdp, I believe. How much of that is the productive use and thinking and allocation of the, uh, the capital towards their most productive ends? And how much of that is just zero sum or negative sum games? Um, if, if you had to break that down, like, is 9% too high, do you think, or is it just.I think it's Bethany McLean: too high. I have no idea how to think about breaking it down to what the proper level should be. But I think there are other ways to think about how you can see that in past decades it hasn't been at the right level when you've had all sorts of smart kids. Um, Leaving, leaving business school and leaving college and heading into [00:41:00] finance and hedge funds and private equity is their career of choice.I think that's a sign that that finance is too big when it's sucking up too much of, of, of the talent of the country. Um, and when the rewards for doing it are so disproportionate relative to the rewards of of, of doing other things. Um, the counter to that is that there've also been a lot of rewards for starting businesses.And that's probably, I think, how you want it to be in a, in a product. In a productive economy. So I think the number is, is too high. I don't know how to think about what it should be other than what a, actually, a former Goldman Sachs partner said this to me when I was working on all the devils are here, and she said that finance is supposed to be like the, the substrata of our world.It's supposed to be the thing that enables other things to happen. It's not supposed to be the world itself. So the, the role of a financial system is to enable businesses to get started, to provide capital. That's what it's supposed to be. It's the lubricant that enables business, but it's not supposed to be the thing itself.Right. And it's become the thing itself. [00:42:00] You've, you've, you've, you've, you've got a problem. Um, um, and I think the other, Dwarkesh Patel: there's your article about crypto , that paragraph right there. . Bethany McLean: There you go. That's, that's a good, um, and I think, I think the other way, you, you, you can see, and perhaps this is way too simplistic, but the other way I've thought about it is that how can it be if you can run a hedge fund and make billions of dollars from, and have five people, 10 people, whatever it is, versus starting a company that employs people mm-hmm.and changes a neighborhood and provides jobs and, you know, provides a product that, that, that, that, that improves people's lives. It, it is a shame that too much of the talent and such a huge share of the financial rewards are going to the former rather than the latter. And that just can't mean good things for the future.Dwarkesh Patel: Yeah. Yeah. And I, you know, when people criticize technology, for example, for the idea that, you know, these people who would've been, I don't know, otherwise teachers or something, they're, you know, making half a million dollars at Google. [00:43:00] Um, and I think like when I was in India, people were using Google Maps to get through the streets in Mumbai, which is, which is unimaginable to me before going there that, you know, you would be able to do that with, um, a service built out of Silicon Valley.And so, Yeah, I think that actually is a good allocation of capital and talent. I, I'm not, I'm not sure about finance. Um, yeah, Bethany McLean: I think I, I, I agree with you. I think there are other problems with Google and with the, the social media giants, but, but they are real businesses that employ people, that make products that have had, uh, huge.Um, impact on on, on people's, on people's lives. So in, in that sense, it's very different than a private equity firm, for instance, and especially private equity, even more so than hedge funds draws my ire. Mm-hmm. , because I think one of the reasons they, that it, they've been able to make part of the financialization of our economy has been due to super, super low interest rates and low interest rates that have enabled so many people to make so much money in finance are not, they're just a gift.It wasn't because these people were uniquely smart, they just [00:44:00] found themselves in a great moment in time. And the fact that they now think they're really smart because money makes me crazy. Dwarkesh Patel: Um, are Fanny and Freddy America special purpose entities? Are they our Alameda? It's just the way we hide our debt and uh, that's interesting.Yeah. Bethany McLean: Well, I guess we, you know what? I don't know anymore because, so I last wrote about them when was it in 2016 and I don't know now. No, you're right. Their, their debt is still off, off, off balance sheet. So Yeah, in a lot of ways they, they were. . I would argue though that the old Fanny and Freddy were structured more honestly than, than the new Fanny and Freddy, that it really is conservatorship that have made them, um, that have made them America's off balance sheet entities, because at least when they were their own independent entities.Yes, there was this odd thing known as the implicit guarantee, which is when you think about, back to your point about efficient markets, how can you possibly believe there's an as such a thing as an efficient market when their [00:45:00] Fanny and Freddy had an implicit guarantee, meaning it wasn't real. There was no place where it was written down that the US government would bail Fanny and Freddie out in a crisis, and everybody denied that it existed and yet it did exist.Yeah. Dwarkesh Patel: No, but we, I feel like that confirms the official market hypothesis, right? The, the market correctly, they thought that mortgages backed by Fannie and Freddy would have governments. Uh, okay, okay. You might be father Bethany McLean: and they did . You might be right. I, I, I think what I was getting at you, you might be right.I think what I was getting at is that it is such a screwed up concept. I mean, how can you possibly, when I first, when people were first explaining this to me, when I first read about Fanny and Freddie, I was like, no, no, wait. This is American capitalism . This is, no, wait. What? I don't, I don't understand . Um, um, so yeah, but I, I, I, I think that Fanny and Freddie, at least with shareholders that were forced to bear some level of, of the risks were actually a more honest way of going about this whole screwed up American way of financing mortgages than, than the current setup is.Dwarkesh Patel: What [00:46:00] is the future of these firms? Or are they just gonna say in conservatorship forever? Or is there any developments there? Well, what's gonna happen to them? Bethany McLean: The lawsuit, the latest lawsuit that could have answered that in some ways ended in a mistrial. Um, I don't think, I don't, I don't think unfortunately anybody in government sees any currency in, and I mean, currency in the broad sense, not in the literal sense of money in, in taking this on.And unfortunately, what someone once said to me about it, I think remains true and it's really depressing, but is that various lawmakers get interested in Fannie and Freddy. They engage with it only to figure out it's really, really goddamn complicated. Mm-hmm. and that, and that any kind of solution is gonna involve angering people on one side of the aisle or another and potentially angering their constituent constituents.And they slowly back away, um, from doing anything that could, that, that could affect change. So I think we have a really unhealthy situation. I don't think it's great for these two [00:47:00] entities to be in conservatorship, but at this point, I'm not sure it's gonna change. Dwarkesh Patel: Yep. Speaking of debt and mortgages, um, so total household debt in the United States has been, uh, climbing recently after it's, it's like slightly d decline after 2008, but I think in quarter three alone it increased 350 billion and now it's at 16.5 trillion.Uh, the total US household debt, should we worried about this? Are, are, are we gonna see another sort of collapse because of this? Or what, what should we think about this? Bethany McLean: I don't know. I don't know how to think about that because it's too tied up in other things that no one knows. Are we going to have a recession?How severe is the recession going to be? What is the max unemployment rate that we're gonna hit if we do, if we do have a recession? And all of those things dictate how to, how to think about that number. I. Think consumer debt is embedded in the bowels of the financial system in the same way mortgages were.And in the end, the, the, the [00:48:00] problem with the financial crisis of 2008, it wasn't the losses on the mortgages themselves. It was the way in which they were embedded in the plumbing of the financial system. Mm-hmm. and ways that nobody understood. And then the resulting loss of confidence from the fact that nobody had understood that slash lies had been told about, about that.And that's what caused, that's what caused everything to, to collapse. Consumer debt is a little more visible and seeable and I, I don't think that it has that same, um, that same opaque quality to it that, that mortgage backed securities did. I could be, I could be wrong. I haven't, I haven't, I haven't dug into it enough, enough to understand enough to understand that.But you can see the delinquencies starting to climb. Um, I mean, I guess you could on, on, on mortgages as well, but there was this, there was this profound belief with mortgages that since home prices would never decline, there would never be losses on these instruments because you could always sell the underlying property for more than you had [00:49:00] paid for it, and therefore everything would be fine.And that's what led to a lot of the bad practices in the industry is that lenders didn't think they had to care if they were screwing the home buyer because they always thought they could take the home back and, and, and, and, and make more money on it. And consumer debt is, is unsecured. And so it's, it's, it's different.I think people think about it differently, but I'd have. I'd have to, I'd have to do some more homework to understand where consumer debt sits in the overall architecture of the financial industry. Dwarkesh Patel: I, I, I'm really glad you brought up this theme about what does the overall big picture look like? I feel like this is the theme of all your books that people will be, So obsessed with their subsection of their job or, or that ar area that they won't notice that, um, broader trends like the ones you're talking about.And in Enron it's like, why, why, why do we have all these special purpose entities? What is the total debt load of Enron? Um, or with the, you know, mortgage back securities a similar kind of thing, right? What, what, uh, maybe they weren't correlated in the past, [00:50:00] but what's that? Do we really think that there's really no correlation, um, uh, between, uh, delinquencies across the country?Um, so that, that kind of big picture, think. Whose job is that today? Is it journalists? Is it short sellers? Is it people writing on ck? Who's doing that? Is it anybody's job? Is, is it just like, uh, an important role with nobody assigned to it? Bethany McLean: I think it's the latter. I think it's an important role with nobody, with nobody assigned to it, and there there is a limit.I mean, , I hate to say this, it is not, uh, um, it is not an accident that many of my books have been written. That's probably not fair. It's not true of my book un fracking, but that some of my books have been written after the calamity happened. So they weren't so much foretelling the calamity as they were unpacking the calamity after it happened, which is a different role.And as I said at the start of our conversation, I think an important one to explain to people why this big, bad thing took, took place. But it's not prediction, I don't know, as people that were very good at, at prediction, um, they tried [00:51:00] to set up, what was it called? In the wake of the global financial crisis, they established this thing called fsoc, and now I'm forgetting what the acronym stands for.Financial Security Oversight Committee. And it's supposed to be this, this body that does think about these big picture. That thinks about the ways, the ways an exam, for example, in which mortgage backed securities were, um, were, were, were, were, were, were, were repopulating through the entire financial system and ways that would be cause a loss to be much more than a loss.That it wouldn't just be the loss of money and that security, it would echo and magnify. And so that there are people who are supposed to be thinking about it. But I think, I think it's, it's, it's really hard to see that and. In increasingly complex world, it's even, it's even harder than it was before, because the reverberations from things are really hard to map out in, in, in advance, and especially when some part of those reverberations are a loss of confidence, then all bets [00:52:00] are off because when confidence cracks, lots of things fall apart.But how do you possibly analyze in any quantitative way the the risk that that confidence will collapse? Mm-hmm. . So I think it's, I think, I think, I think it's difficult. That said, and of course I am talking my own book here, I don't think that the lack of the, the increased financial problems of journalism really help matters in that respect, because in an ideal world, you want a lot of people out there writing and thinking about various pieces of this, and then maybe somebody can come along and see the.Pieces and say, oh my God, there's this big picture thing here that we all need to be thinking about. But there's, there's a kind of serendipity in the ability to do that one, that one that the chances, I guess the best way to say that is the chances of that serendipity are dramatically increased by having a lot of people out there doing homework, um, on the various pieces of the puzzle.And so I think in a world, particularly where local news has been decimated mm-hmm. , um, the [00:53:00] chances of that sort of serendipity are, are definitely lower. And people may think, oh, it doesn't matter. We still got national news. We've got the Washington Post, we've got the Wall Street Journal, we've got the New York Times.Um, I would love to have somebody do a piece of analysis and go back through the New York Times stories and see how many were sparked by lp, a piece in the local paper that maybe you wouldn't even notice from reading the New York Times piece, because it'd be in like the sixth paragraph that, oh yeah, credit should go to this person at this local paper who started writing about this.But if you no longer have the person at the local paper who started writing about this, You know, it's, it's, it's, it's less likely that the big national piece gets written. And I think that's a part of the implosion of local news, that people, a part of the cost of the implosion of local news that people don't really understand the idea that the national press functions at, at the same level, um, without local news is just not true.Dwarkesh Patel: Yeah. And, but even if you have the local news, and I, that's a really important point, but even if you have that local news, there still has to be somebody whose job it is to synthesize it all together. And [00:54:00] I'm curious, what is the training that requires? So you, I mean, your training is, you know, math and English major and then working at working in investment banking.Um, is that the, uh, I mean, obviously the anecdotal experience then equals one, seems that that's great training for synthesizing all these pieces together. But what is the right sort of education for somebody who is thinking about the big picture? Bethany McLean: I, I don't, I don't know.And there may be, there may be, there are probably multiple answers to that question, right? There's probably no one, one right answer for me. In, in the end. My, my math major has proven to be pivotal. Even though , my mother dug up these, um, my, my parents were moving and so my mother was going through all her stuff and she dug up these, some my math work from, from college.Literally, if it weren't for the fact that I recognized my own handwriting, I would not recognize these pages on pages of math formula and proofs. And they're like, get gibberish to me now. So , but I, but I still think that math has, so I do not wanna exaggerate my mathematical ability at this stage of [00:55:00] the game.It's basically no. But I do think that doing math proofs any kind of formal, any kind of training and logic is really, really important because the more you've been formally trained in logic, the more you realize when there are piece is missing and when something isn't quite, isn't quite adding on, it just forces you to think in, in a way that is, that in a way that connects the dots.Um, because you know, if you're moving from A to B and B doesn't follow a, you, you understand that B doesn't follow a And I think that that, that, that kind of training is, is really, really important. It's what's given. , whatever kind of backbone I have as a journalist is not because I like to create controversy and like to make people mad.I actually don't. It's just because something doesn't make sense to me. And so maybe it doesn't make sense to me because I'm not getting it, or it doesn't make sense to me because B doesn't actually follow, follow away, and you're just being told that it does. And so I think that, I think that training is, is really, really important.Um, I also have, have often thought [00:56:00] that another part of training is realizing that basic rule that you learned in kindergarten, which is, um, you know, believe your imagination or you know, your imagine follow your imagination. Because the truth is anything can happen. And I think if you look at business history over the last couple of decades, it will be the improbable becoming probable.Truth over and over and over again. I mean, the idea that Enron could implode one of the biggest, supposedly most successful companies in corporate America could be bankrupt within six months. The, from its year, from its stock price high. The idea that the biggest, most successful, um, financial institutions on wall, on Wall Street could all be crumbling into bankruptcy without the aid of the US government.The idea that a young woman with no college degree and no real experience in engineering could create, uh, uh, um, could create a machine that was going to revolutionize blood testing and land on the cover of every business magazine, and that this [00:57:00] whole thing could turn out to be pretty much a fraud. The entire idea of ftx, I mean, over and over again, these things have happened.Forget Bernie Madoff if you had told people a year ago that FTX was gonna implode six months ago, three months ago, people would've been like, no, no, no, no, no, no, no. And so I think just that, that, that, that knowledge that the improbable happens over and over again is also a really fundamental, fundamentally important.Dwarkesh Patel: If we're con continuing on the theme of ftx, I, I interviewed him about four or five months ago.Wow. And this is one of these interviews that I'm really, I'm, I don't know if embarrass is the right word, but I knew things then that I could have like asked, poked harder about. But it's also the kind of thing where you look back in retrospect and you're. If it had turned out well, it's, it's not obvious what the red flags are.Um, while you're in the moment, there's things you can look back at the story of Facebook and how, you know, Marcus Zuckerberg acted in the early days of Facebook and you could say, if the thing fell apart, that this is why, or, you know, this is a red flag. So [00:58:00] I have a hard time thinking about how I should have done that interview.B

As American voters went to the polls, in the closely-watch mid-term elections, the CONVERSATION sees signs of more gridlock with control of Congress at stake. DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP, says Fed Chairman, Jerome Powell, is the only major figure in Washington fighting inflation. MAT VAN ALSTYNE, ODEON co-founder and managing partner, agrees, presenting the case for bringing this white-hot inflation menace in America under control. The CONVERSATION takes a deep dive into the latest labor and productivity numbers for a clearer picture of employment and hiring trends. "I think we've crested in terms of jobs," says BOVE. In a recent note to investors, BOVE said the broader numbers published by the US Labor Department each month tend to be very confusing. "However, assessing the associated wage, hours worked, and productivity data suggests that the job market may have peaked," he writes. The CONVERSATION also turns to Germany and its business and political ties to China and Russia. "Germany has kind of sold its soul to Russia on gas and to China on selling goods," says BOVE. German Chancellor, Olaf Sholz, recently visited China accompanied by business leaders from Germany who signed major deals with China for the purchase of German products. Elsewhere, BOVE provides startling background on what he calls the "illegal" seizure of housing agencies, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac during the financial crisis. Fannie and Freddie were in court again recently in a battle for control of the agencies by plaintiffs. Questions & Comments: Podcast@OdeonCap.com

Today's REAL TidBit explores three Government Sponsored Organizations that act as the backbone of the real estate mortgage markets.  Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginne Mae buy pools of mortgages from banks and non-bank originators, then package these into low risk securities that are sold around the globe.  Since Fannie's inception in 1938, these GSEs have been the prime liquidity provider to the US mortgage markets.To learn more, visit:https://billbymel.com/Listen to more episodes on Mission Matters:https://missionmatters.com/author/bill-bymel/

If you're an investor and you're worried about interest rates, and don't have a ton of cash, what products are out there for financing your purchase?  On today's episode, Clint Coons of Anderson Business Advisors talks to Rick Floyd, Executive Vice President of Homebridge Financial Services. Rick explains some of the basics that you'll find in the agency space, such as the typical Fannie/Freddie guidelines, but there are also options out there for investors such as the non-qualified mortgage that has very different requirements and doesn't carry some of the limits and restrictions you may find in the Fannie/Freddie underwriting. Highlights/Topics: Background on Homebridge Financial The traditional Fannie and Freddie guidelines Avoid common mistakes investors make - talk with your advisor, make sure they are looking at your ‘big picture' How important is ‘seasoning' of cash - it should be able to be sourced Portfolio loans use Fannie and Freddie guidelines Non-qualified mortgages - qualifying, terms, cap limits, rates and other details HELOCs- only on primary residences, not on investment properties What does the next year look like for investors? Lack of inventory is the biggest problem One last question -nonQM property transfers- it's not an issue Resources: Rick Floyd LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/rickfloydremn/ Homebridge Financial https://www.homebridge.com/ Clint Coons https://andersonadvisors.com/clint-coons/ Anderson Advisors https://andersonadvisors.com/ Anderson Advisors on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCaL-wApuVYi2Va5dWzyTYVw

Neal Bawa is a technologist who is universally known in real estate circles as the Mad Scientist of Multifamily. Besides being one of the most in-demand speakers in commercial real estate, Neal is a data guru, a process freak, and an outsourcing expert. Neal treats his $947 million-dollar portfolio as an ongoing experiment in efficiency and optimization. The Mad Scientist lives by two mantras. His first mantra is that "We can only manage what we can measure". His second mantra is that "Data beats gut feel by a million miles". These mantras and a dozen other disruptive beliefs drive profit for his 700+ investors. In today's episode, Neal gives his take on what is happening in the multi-family market today, the dynamics of the current economy, and what he sees coming over the next year. Episode Links: https://multifamilyu.com/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/neal-bawa/  --- Transcript Before we jump into the episode, here's a quick disclaimer about our content. The Remote Real Estate Investor podcast is for informational purposes only, and is not intended as investment advice. The views, opinions and strategies of both the hosts and the guests are their own and should not be considered as guidance from Roofstock. Make sure to always run your own numbers, make your own independent decisions and seek investment advice from licensed professionals.   Michael: Hey, everyone, welcome to another episode of the Remote Real Estate Investor. I'm Michael Albaum and today joining me again is Neal Bawa, who is the founder of MultifamilyU and a big time multifamily syndicator and Neal is gonna be putting his finger on the pulse of the multifamily market and sharing with us some pretty hard hitting facts. So let's strap in, and let's get into it.   Neal, welcome back to the show. Thank you so much for taking the time to hang out with me. I really appreciate you coming on.   Neal: It's great to be back, Michael. Great to be back.   Michael: Thank you, Neal. So last time, on our prior episode, we talked a lot about the single family space and what we saw going on with the market today. I'd love if we could focus our conversation on multifamily, since I know that you do quite a bit in that space as well.   Neal: That's right. I live and breathe multifamily. I started with single family like a lot of you know, the folks that are using your platform did, but multifamily is more scalable. So we currently have about a billion dollars of multifamily 31 projects about 4800 units that are either in construction or in lease up or you know, are stabilize, right. So, you know, a significant portion of them are already stabilized that we're holding, but we're also building a bunch of them, and working on the construction of some of them. So it's you know, what's happening today is so dramatic and so unusual. We you know, one could compare, maybe it's not as dramatic as the first three months of COVID. But otherwise, it's pretty crazy. It's pretty dramatic, dramatic. So it's, it's a great time to talk about multifamily.   Michael: Yeah. So a billion dollars and just turning back the clock a minute. I'm curious, how long did it take you to get to that point from when you started?   Neal: So I you know, ignoring a past company where I was a partner, this particular company has basically gotten to that billion dollars since February 2018. So, so about four and a half years, roughly.   Michael: Holy smoke, I was just interviewing a gentleman who's got a business he wants to scale to a billion dollars over a nine year period. So you mourn cut that in half, that's incredible growth. Neal: Well, keep in mind, I don't want to demean what we've done, because we're very proud of it. But with a when you're purchasing multifamily, the numbers get big, pretty, you know, quickly, right? So 100 unit multifamily today is $20 million. So you do get up there very fast. So I still consider myself to be a mid-level syndicator. There's dozens and dozens and dozens of companies that have bigger portfolios than I do and also, for reference, a billion dollar portfolio usually only equates to about 10 employees in a syndication business. Now, in my case, I have 30 employees, because I've 20 of them in the Philippines and that's helping me scale and so I have 20 full time employees in the Philippines in addition to those 10 people. But I think it's useful to have that frame of reference, I think that you're setting targets in multifamily, a billion is actually not a bad target the set.   Michael: Okay, I will definitely keep that in mind as I as I scale my portfolio. That's, that's really great to know. But Neal, let's transition and I would love to get your thoughts because you are a data scientist, you have so many great analytics to kind of backup your thoughts and opinions and viewpoints. Tell us what like what's going on in the multifamily space as we recording this today late, mid to late September.   Neal: Prices are falling and they will continue to fall. It's a bad time to buy any kind of multifamily in any market in the US and I rarely, I've never actually said that before, maybe with the exception of you know, first month COVID. It's currently right now, no one should be buying anything in the United States. But here's the good news. You don't have to wait very long. The market is now adjusting very rapidly. So I think that I think February March of next year would be a terrific time to buy you know whether it's the one to four units that get listed on Roofstock. By the way, I currently have a triplex listed on roof stock, check it out, it's on Brandon Avenue in Chicago. Whether it's those units or it's the you know, the larger unit we were also selling, you know, a 200 unit property at this point in time not on Roofstock but we're not buying anything. I mean, we've basically told our acquisition people to be pencils down stop looking, stop talking to brokers stop traveling to properties, because we are halfway through a correction. So and I'll explain why. Multifamily is a very different animal from single family. So let's say Michael is buying a single family property and it's next to another one that's identical to it. So there's two row houses and next to it. Well, if somebody last month paid a million dollars for the first one, Michael can get a loan that appraises for 1,000,000 value for his property, he can get that easily, regardless of what really happens in the market, he can get that, you know, and prices take so long to fall that even if the price actually falls, Michael can use a comp from half a mile away to still get that million dollars in value. So the banks on the single family side are really trusting you to do your, you know, to not to overpay, right. So if they're just looking at it, is there a comp that matches it and if it does, we'll just give this guy alone, right and if they feel like the times are hard, they might change their LTVs from 75 to 70 and but that's pretty much as far as the single family market goes. The multifamily market is radically different because a multi one multifamily property is a business. It's like you're buying a Tommy's carwash, or you're buying, you know you're buying a subway or a chain of subways, that's the best way to look at it. It's a business. So your underwriting really doesn't matter. It's the banks underwriting that matters, the bank that's giving you the funding and the moment that we start seeing interest rates go up in the market, the value of the property immediately decreases. Why? Because the bank's underwriting decreases the value of the property, because multifamily properties are based on just two things, something known as a cap rate, which is basically the market's estimate of what the property should be worth and then something else known as net operating income, which is basically rents minus expenses right? Now, the moment and you know, the moment your interest rates increase, and most multifamily today in the US is on floating rate debt. So what that means is, as interest rates go up, your mortgage is going up something a number called DSCR. I won't go into that into detail on that. But there's a number called DSCR, that basically starts to fall. So the higher your mortgage goes, the lower that number is. This means that, you know, let's say I'm a buyer and I'm selling two multi families and they're right next to each other, right. So they're same number of units, same occupancy, same design, so that their net operating income for both of these properties is exactly the same, like down to the last cent right. Now one, let's say one soft sell sold for $30 million. Okay, and I waited a month like 30 days, and the Fed raise interest rates by 100 bits right, but basically 1%. The second property now is worth less. It's worth less, even though there's another property that sold 30 days ago, that's identical with the same number of tenants with the same rents. It's now worth less so multifamily is on a sliding scale and that sliding scale is affected by interest rate hikes much sooner than single family.   Obviously, single family is also affected. We've seen there's 90 bond markets in the US where single family prices are coming down, but they're coming down really slowly, right. Like the I think the average decline in the last six weeks has been 2%, right and I mean, seasonal declines are bigger than 2%. So I don't even know what to make of that 2% yet, but on the multifamily side, depending upon the market, we've seen declines of six to 12% in multifamily prices already and in remember, the Fed only really started raising in May of this year that you know, we're doing this in the middle of September, right. So in five months, the Feds basically raised everything there was a tiny raise back in March, but it was it was so tiny that it really didn't make any difference. So in five months, the Fed has basically affected multifamily prices to the tune of six to 12%. Here's the bad news. That's not the end, because everybody including yours truly was thinking that when last week's inflation report came out, we would see a downward trend, and the Fed would give us some guidance that yeah, okay, well, instead of raising by 75 bits this week that there's a Fed meeting going on this week, we're gonna raise by 50 and then we'll see what happens in November, maybe we'll raise it by 25 and we were like, okay, if that happens, great. You know, where the Fed funds rate is at 2.25. They raised by 50 pips this week, then they raised about 25 pips in November at 3%. We're done with the Fed funds rate, and that means that multifamily doesn't have to drop any further. Well, it sucks but that didn't happen. Inflation didn't drop and so now the Fed this week is definitely going to raise interest rates by 75 bits, maybe they might even do it by 100 and that basically will spike up interest rates by 100 points immediately and then they'll have to do 75 points in November and maybe another 50 points or 25 points in December. So because of that bad news, we now know that we're midway through this drop in multifamily, right. So we think that there's another five or 6% drop coming by February or March. Is this bad? No. If you're not, you know, if you're not buying anything, just wait for five or six months and you get five or 6%. You know, you know benefits. What the heck is wrong about that because the market isn't bad. Rents haven't decreased, rents are continuing to increase nationwide for both single family and multifamily. So this isn't like 2008, where there's 5 million empty homes show me empty homes. I mean, there really aren't any, the market is an amazing occupancy levels. This is just one single factor, the cost of debt. So, if you can, in February, buy a property for 5%, cheaper, you will have had two advantages. Number one, the next six months, you're not paying for that high cost of debt, right? Number two, you would, you know, say 5%. So your property is cheaper, so your debts less right? Number three, you will be within six months of the Fed cutting interest rates. This is the part that most people don't understand. The Federal Reserve is not trying to kill us. They're just doing their job. and their job is to control inflation because if you don't control inflation, really bad shit happens really, really bad should happen. So it's much better to control inflation and obviously the industry that is most affected when you raise interest rates is real estate. No other industry in the US is affected as much as real estate by interest rate hikes. Here's the good news though. If you look at the last 61 years, the Fed raised interest rates nine times sharp up sharp down. So if you buy in Feb, by, I think July or August, the Fed should be dropping interest rates or at least talking about dropping interest rates.   Why is that important? Mortgage rates are guesses. So single family mortgage rates and multifamily mortgage rates in the US are just guesswork where the market tries to guess what the Fed will do next. So if the Fed starts talking about interest rate declines, the market starts to prices in., right and when the Fed says oh, well, we might hold, right the market reacts. So the interest rates basically adjust even before the Fed actually does anything. Perfect example of this: In December, the Fed started talking about interest rate hikes, but didn't actually raise anything. They didn't change anything until March. But in those four months, interest rates went up 100 basis points, they went up an entire 1% because the market was guessing what the Fed would do. So if you buy a multifamily in February and the Feds basically start to lower rates by June, July and August. Now you're in a better environment and as long as your rates are floating, they may float the other way, they may float down and give you a benefit. Where you start high and then you float downwards. That's why I think it makes sense to wait. I've seen a lot of my friends that have larger portfolios and me 2 billion 3 billion send emails to their investor saying we're pencils down. mean, what that means is we're not even underwriting a property we you know, we see 10 properties a day and normally we underwrite three or four of them. Pencils down means you just click the delete button 10 times and you're done with your job for the day.   Michael: Wow, I have so many questions. But I guess the first one is, why are mortgage rate guesses? Why doesn't, why don't banks look at actual data and what the actual borrowing rate is today and not worry about forecasting, but use hindsight. So it takes the guesswork out of it.   Neal: I'm not 100% sure on that. Just so you know, that's what the multifamily market does, right. So the multifamily market has two kinds of loans or I should say three kinds of loans. One of them is the guesswork kind where they try and guess what the Fed is going to do. The other one is one that's based on LIBOR or now called Sofer, these are basically and basically they're based on like treasury bonds and what those numbers are those loans. The moment the Fed hikes the they're going to hike this week, right so that they have a meeting on Wednesday, that we're probably going to hype it by 75 pips. Well, if I have that kind of loan, and I do at some of my properties, guess what, on Thursday, my debt is a lot more expensive. 75 basis points more expensive. So you can see that on the multifamily side. I have never, ever seen a single family loan do that. Every mortgage that I've seen 30 year 15 year five year ARM, they're all guesses forward looking guesses on the Feds rate. Why? I have no freaking clue.   Michael: Okay… We'll have to find someone out there that can give us a definitive answer as to why that is. But I'm also curious now, you mentioned at the beginning of our conversation that in the single family space, the banks are kind of depending on us as borrowers to look at the value of the home and determine hey, this is worth or not, which seems very counterintuitive because the majority of multifamily investors that I know, tend to be able to underwrite really, really well, oftentimes better than the bank and so why is the bank's taking the power away from a multifamily investor and really giving it to a single family owner it seems a little bit backwards now.   Neal: Single Family is considered to be a REIT in the United States and single family lending is encouraged by politicians. The overall banking system believes that even if they go a little it over on the single family side, it's not such a bad thing, obviously 2008 was 2007 was different because it was not a real estate failure. It was a failure of lending standards, you know, they were basically giving gardeners million dollar loans, right. So that's not going to end well. So obviously, I don't see any evidence of that kind of stupidity existing today. So there are lending standards, they're pretty tight on those lending standards, they're not going above them, you have to be, you know, a good, good buyer. But beyond that, they as long as there's an appraised property that similar your property will appraise. I am not in favor of this other countries do not do this. Banks underwrite single family loans in other countries, the way that we underwrite multifamily loans. But because of Americans believe that single family is a very key part of their life. We've seen this appraisal based system for the last 30 or 40 years and every once in a while it blows up a bubble just like it did in 2007. So this is a conscious decision that the people that run this company had a country have made, and it has lots and lots of good sides, because it tends to overall increase the prices of single family appraisal, you know, somebody buys for more, the your property is more than next was more next one's more. So generally, it has a beneficial effect on the real estate market. But it also tends to create more bubbles than other countries.   Michael: Interesting. Okay, that's really good insights. So knowing that this isn't the ideal time to buy multifamily. What should people be doing? Is this the time to get educated, is the time to go get capitals is the time you know, what should folks be doing right now?   Neal: Um, I think that I'll give you some ideas, right? So I'll give you kind of a sense of, Well, what would Neal Bawa be doing and what would maybe somebody that's newer than Neal Bawa, you know, doesn't have a lot of multifamily should be doing. So let's just focus on that piece first, right, because what I do is really different from what you should be doing, depending upon where you are in the process. So let's say you're early in the multifamily process, you should be educating your investors, that an extraordinary opportunity is going to present itself most likely in q2 of next year. So that's, you know, April, May, June and that opportunity is there for the first time since the Great Depression, that in the 2008, depression, we have an unusual thing happening, and that will be multifamily prices, not single family, but multifamily prices will be low in q2 next year, compared to let's say, now, or compared to, especially compared to a year ago, they will be low. But the economy will not be anywhere like 2008, it'll still it'll be weak, it will be in a recession. But this is what is known as an artificial recession. So recessions are of two kinds, they come in two flavors. Number one, a recession that is artificially created by the Fed to cool down inflation, and we're about to go into one of those recessions, those tend to be shallow, and the they don't damage the economy in the long term, they create short term damage, and the economy tends to recover fairly quickly from those unemployment doesn't tend to go down too much. You know, so, so go up too much, I should say, you know, so. So we're about to go into one of those and those are the kinds of recessions where you want to buy multifamily. Why because multifamily prices still decrease as interest rates go up, regardless of the strength of the underlying economy. So the underlying economy right now is amazingly strong, right. So with all the hand grenades that the Fed has thrown at us for over five months, they've managed to move the unemployment rate from a historic 3.5% to a historic 3.7%. In five months, they basically haven't managed to dent the unemployment market at all and even that point, 2% increase has largely been because of being because of more people joining the workforce. So post COVID, a lot of people took a year and two years off, a lot of those people are now returning to the to the workforce because they're running out of that stimulus money and that's really what that point to otherwise, when you see like you might see, you know, news about layoffs in the United States, Google it actually look at the statistics. Anytime at any point in the economy, there's layoffs, right. But there haven't been more layoffs than they were six months ago or 12 months ago. It's just the regular layoffs that happened in a normal economy. So there's the economy is extraordinarily strong, and it's going to get dragged into recession simply because the Fed is going to keep throwing hand grenades until the economy goes into recession. But because the underlying economy will stay pretty strong during this shallow recession, you've got a onetime opportunity to buy cheap multifamily because multifamily is just as affected in terms of price. Whether the economy underlying is weak or strong right and you have a quick chance to come out of it and make a lot of money. You should be educating your investors telling them about this opportunity, because I haven't seen that opportunity at all since 2013.   Michael: Interesting.   Neal: That's what you should be doing, telling every investor about this and telling them, I am not buying anything now. Well, you probably know me, you know, don't have the investor money to buy anything now. But what's the harm in saying it's still true?   Michael: Right, right, right. Do you think though, Neal, that at that time, q2, next year, that folks, sellers, owners are going to see that, hey, there's this dip in prices, and therefore, I'm not going to sell because I don't want to sell at a loss I bought 234 or five years ago, I'm going to hold on to my property and no, there will be an inventory shortage, or do you do not foresee that happening?   Neal: There is already an inventory shortage in multifamily prices have still dropped. So the if you look at the inventory available to sell in the multifamily market, it's half of what we had a year ago. But multifamily is different from single family in single family is shortage of inventory tends to drive prices up. With multifamily a shortage of inventory cannot drive prices up because banks are underwriting and they don't give a flying F about what the inventory is. They just care about your debt cost and your debt cost is going up. So when so the key thing is that the single family and multifamily markets are fundamentally different. One of them is just a business and the business is based on its debt cost, and its net operating income and nothing else right. Whereas single family is based on demand. If there's nothing available on your street to sell whatever appears is going to sell for more. That's not how multifamily works. So even right now, supply is pretty low. But that doesn't mean that people are over able to over bid, because if they over bid, guess what happens, Michael, they can't get a loan for that amount and now they have to raise lots of extra equity, which reduces their returns and so a lot of them are like this is painful, we're just going to sit back for three to four months for the market to adjust. Buyers have sellers have to understand that either they just keep their property off the marketplace, which you know, you can do infinite infinitely, you can do it for some amount of time or they will adjust their pricing as they already have. Remember, we've already seen a six to 12% delta in just six months. That's how quickly multifamily reacts and I think that's why I'm in the multifamily business because I liked the logic of that. If your costs are increasing and your profits are decreasing, you should get a lower price, right.   Michael: It's pretty black and white.   Neal: Yeah, yes and that's how it works in multifamily. With single family, you can very often see costs increasing, but because everyone's holding off, nobody's basically selling their property. Everyone's like I've got lots of equity in the property. Now there's no property in the marketplace and even with costs increasing, you can often see increase in pricing. To me that has no logic and so I don't play in in that in that field.   Michael: Yeah, yeah, no, it makes total sense. Neal, let's talk about multifamily loan products and some of the different ones that are out there. You mentioned there's three different loan types. There's the fix for five 710 years, there's the LIBOR, floating rates, what's the third one?   Neal: So the second one is tied to so I'll go back, right. So the first one straightforward, fixed, usually it's five years and 10 year fixed. The second one is tied to a number called LIBOR or LIBOR or so far, these days, it's called Silver. That's kind of the new version of LIBOR. So it's a number and the loans will be, you know, LIBOR plus something LIBOR plus 2.25, right and what that means is the moment the Fed changes, interest rates, that's gonna change, right? So your, the interest rate, you're paying changes the very next day, right, the bank's gonna send you a letter saying, hey, Sofer has changed, therefore your interest rate is now x, right and boom, you're paying more, the third one is available, that is basically a rate that you it's a floating rate. right, but it's not tied to LIBOR. It's not tied to Sofer. It's speculative in some sort of ways. Now, it does tend to go up as interest rates go up, it's really tied to treasuries. Now, US Treasury bonds are a speculative product, right? So today, something happens in China or something happens in Russia, something happens in Ukraine, and all of a sudden, treasury bonds will shoot up or shoot down and so that particular rate is tied to the treasury bonds. So it's speculative and so, you know, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, often these floating off of these floating rates. Now, in the end, the rate is going to end up more or less where the Sofer one is, but it's not immediate. It's not like you don't get that happening the next day after the Fed raises interest rates and I'll tell you why because it's tied to treasuries and treasuries move upward. Are downwards because of 100 different factors. Only one of those are interest rates. So geopolitical situations can often make treasuries move downwards. For example, if the Chinese economy collapses tomorrow and there's blood on the street, treasuries will go downwards, even if the Fed continues to raise interest rates. That makes sense? So, to these sorts of things, these movements can happen so that rates that are tied to the US Treasury bonds tend to move up and down with Treasury bonds. So those are the three kinds.   Michael: Okay, and who is do you think well suited or conversely, not well suited for each type of loan?   Neal: So in terms of who is the lender?   Michael: No, if I'm a buyer, and I'm going to buy … Yeah…   Neal: I think, yeah, yeah. So there's also something known as a bridge rate, when it bridge loans, which no one is getting, I don't know, if a single person that's gotten a bridge loan in the last 30 days, because there are simply very high there are 7%, or even higher in the last, you know, 30 days. So the vast majority of people today that should be buying, let's say you have to buy for whatever reason, you're not stopping you want to buy the key advisors, everyone should today should get a floating rate loan, because if you believe like I do, that the feds job is to raise rates and then drop them and that's what they've done nine times in the last 61 years, then you have to believe at some point in the future 6-12 18, 24 months rates will be lower, because right now, they're pretty darn high, right? So if you believe that locking in your rates doesn't make sense. So the market today, all we have is really Fannie Freddie floating lanes, rate rates, which are similar to what your local bank would provide. So maybe you have a smaller project, you want to go with local bank, those are the same kinds of rates that Fannie Freddie provides, they're probably charging you a quarter point more, but you've got a relationship with them, their points are lower. So lots of people go with local banks. But I think that's the only game in the market for multifamily today and the other thing that's happening in the multifamily market, which is driving prices down as you get multifamily, you might in a really boom time environment, you could get loans that are 75%, loan to value, right and then when the market starts to tighten up, they go to 70. Well, a few weeks ago, most lenders went to 65. So they're giving you a lot less loan to value for the same property forcing you to raise more equity. When you raise more equity, your returns go down, your underwriting suffers. So once again, people are like this not working. I'm not going to make any money. My investors have something known as pref or preferential treatment. So the property underperforms, they're going to make their pref I'm gonna make nothing. So a lot of people are stepping back, pencils down.   Michael: Yeah. Yeah, that makes total sense. That makes total sense.   Neal: And, and none of this has anything to do with a crash, you know, the 2008 scenario. If you believe that that is going to occur in the next 12 months, you're not data driven because the 2008 scenario, if you look at every if you list the top 10 factors that caused it, because it wasn't any one thing, right? None of those factors, not one of those factors exist today, right? What we do have is we pulled demand forward in 2021. In 2021, we basically helicoptered $10 trillion, worldwide, not 10 trillion in the US, luckily, 4 trillion in the US, but 10 trillion worldwide, we helicopter money to people for the first time in modern history. We've done a little bit of it before in 2009. But remember, we were bailing out banks, we were bailing out General Motors, the money wasn't going directly into people's pockets, right. So here we helicopter $10 trillion worldwide, and there's an inflationary effect. It pulled demand forward, everyone, all of a sudden had money, everyone spent money and so we pulled demand forward from let's say, 2023, next year, to 2021 and when we did that, we ended up creating massive amounts of inflation, nothing to do with the economy itself, but it created massive inflation and now we have no choice but to deal with it. I can tell you this if on the one side you said you know will you take 7% single Family interest rates right over the Fed stopping you know their program now just let him stop it I would say don't do that. Hyperinflation is so insanely dangerous, and so insanely destructive, that I would, even though it would really hurt me. I would take 7% interest rates any day, I will take 8% but I wouldn't tell the thread to stop doing what they're doing. 9% inflation if it gets entrenched if everyone believes that two years from now we're going to be at 9% It's astonishingly destructive.   Michael: Wow, wow. Okay and Neal, I'm just curious in based on your research the nine times over the last six to 10 years, the Fed has raised rates and then pretty succinctly thereafter dropped them. How far do you think we're gonna get, how low do you think inch rates are gonna go? I want the Neal Bawa prediction the crystal ball, if you will…   Neal: The federal funds rate, right, the Fed funds rate is what the Fed raises, they don't raise or lower mortgage rates. It's currently at 2.25% and in two days, it's going to go to 3%. We believe currently that the peak is going to be either 3.5 or 3.75% for the Fed funds rate and we think that on the downward path, they'll cut it all the way down to 1.75%. So from their peak, they'll go down 2%. So from the peak, whatever that peak interest rate is, it should go down 2%, right. Now, sometimes they have to go past that 1.75 on the downward leg, because they've hurt the economy so much when they were raising rates that they have to compensate. But we think that the Meet the perfect equilibrium rate for the Fed is around 1.75. Now, in their, in their public, in the public, they talk about it being 2.25. That's where they would like equilibrium to be. But they never seem to ever achieve that. It's always lower than that in a normal market. So they just like to talk it up a little bit to set expectations. So we think that whatever that top interest rate is that you're going to see the highest interest rate, the mortgage rate. Once the Fed is done and brings it down, you should see mortgage rates 2%, lower. So it there's a possibility that sometime in the next 180 days, you'll see a 7% mortgage rate, right. So it might touch that number, but I don't think it goes further beyond that. Okay, but I could be completely wrong, because if the Fed doesn't kill inflation, then all bets are off.   Michael: Right, right. Yeah, this is all under the guise of inflation getting tampered back because of the moves and so just to kind of put that in perspective for people as the end users, 2% reduction of the Fed funds rate will typically constitute a 2% drop on what a borrower is going to pay. So if rates get up to 7%, and then Fed Funds pullback to two by 2%, we would expect mortgage rates to hover on that 5% in the consumer market.   Neal: Yes, exactly four and a half to five and a half going up and down a little bit, you'd remember it's speculative, but you'll have plenty of opportunities to you know, lock something in under 5%. So I think the key message is this, never be afraid of 5%. It's really beyond 5%, that the single family economy starts to you know, it starts to miss heartbeats. That's where it starts to be problematic until five, I've really not seen much of an impact in the marketplace, there'll be a little slow down in price increases and right now a slowdown is healthy, they've gone way too much way too fast and so retrenchment is a very healthy thing.   Michael: Yeah. Okay and just for frame of reference for folks, during COVID, the Fed funds rate was zero, right?   Neal: They dropped it. It was zero, correct. So there were we've gone from zero to 2.25, in five and a half months, right and they were threatening to do it for about four months before that, but they wanted the market to adjust before they actually raise the rate. So we've gone up to 2.25. It was zero for two consecutive years. So two years, in two months, the Fed funds rate was zero.   Michael: And has that ever happened in American history that you know if?   Neal: No, I think that pandemic is very unique. We saw the Fed funds rate fall to about 1% in 2009 2010. But they didn't take it down to zero. So the only time they've ever taken it to zero is this time, I expect all future crisis will go beyond zero now that the eurozone has gone negative and Japan's gone negative. There's no stigma attached to going negative. So I think the next crisis will go below zero.   Michael: Wow and that'll be an interesting time to have a loan tied to LIBOR or Sofer?   Neal: It'll be is it's fantastically interesting. I think what we are, Michael, we're living in the middle of the greatest financial experiment in history and it's, it's an experiment that has no precedent, it doesn't have anything that you can look back to, right. We're doing some truly crazy stuff and we're hoping that it will work out even though we have about three years three or 3000 years of monetary history that says it's never worked out for anyone in the past. So we're just hoping that we are different so right it's all about you know, as long as the musical chairs are going people are you know, people are walking and that's how it's going to be and I don't know when the real challenges happen. I think we're getting closer and closer. I feel like China is just about ready to combust at this point. We'll see what happens.   Michael: Okay, well, I will definitely stay tuned, Neal. This was amazing as always, for people that want to pick your brain more, continue the conversation learn more about you. Where's the best place nice for them to do that,   Neal: Um, you can connect with me simply by typing in my name. I'm the only Neal Bawa on the worldwide web. So just NEAL BAWA, hit enter, there's a couple 100 podcasts that I've appeared on. There's webinars, conference recordings, where I'm on stage. If you'd like to chat with me on LinkedIn, once again, I'm the only Neal Bawa on LinkedIn. So go ahead and connect with me there or go to my website, multifamilyu.com. So that's multifamily, followed by the letter u.com. There's about 30,000 people that attend the webinars that are on that site, we have a new one coming up, which is the impact of interest rates on the economy, and the upcoming recession. So real estate at this point is officially in a recession. The housing market is now in a recession, because it's declining. But I think the rest of the economy is going to follow it and so we have a webinar on that and I think that's going to be in three weeks.   Michael; Okay, fantastic. Well, Neal, thank you. Again, really a pleasure to chat with you and have you on and I'm sure we'll stay in touch.   Neal: Awesome. Thanks for having me on.   Michael: You got it, take care.   All right, everyone. That was our episode a big thank you to Neal for coming on love his data driven approach to his conclusions, which I think we probably all could use another dose of that. As always, if you enjoyed the episode, feel free to leave us a rating or review wherever you get your podcasts and we look forward to seeing the next one. Happy investing…

In one of the most stark warnings yet of a pending recession, famed economist Nouriel Roubini, nicknamed Dr. Doom, says this next recession could start by the end of 2022, stretching into 2023. In a recent media interview, Roubini, the man who correctly predicted the 2008 financial crisis, said in a run of the mill recession, the S&P 500 could slump by 30 percent. In a real hard landing, which he expects, that drop could be as much as 40 percent. Roubini's searing forecast is picked up in this CONVERSATION by DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP as he debates the escalating debt in the US economy with MAT VAN ALSTYNE, ODEON co-founder and managing partner. BOVE believes the US is now at a turning point and will firmly grapple decades-long growth in ballooning debt as the US faces a recession. “We can't go back to a system of printing money when we are in trouble,” he says. VAN ALSTYNE disagrees. He sees a short term strategy of tamping down America's red hot inflation. But in the long term, he expects the government to unfortunately resort to further money printing to fund the mounting cost of entitlement and other programs. Roubini has says the next recession could be “severe, long and ugly.” The CONVERSATION looks at signs of trouble in China's troubled Belt and Road Initiative Program. JOHN AIDAN BYRNE notes how some of the loans by China to foreign borrowers have now gone sour, raising more problems for China which is also managing internal challenges such as a housing crisis. The CONVERSATION looks at current events in other economies in the news, including the UK and Italy and examines the impact of the soaring US dollar. BOVE repeats his call for some form of “Plaza Accord” to manage and contain the latest wave of currency volatility triggered in large by the rising dollar. VAN ALSTYNE while such an idea has merit, it is hard to imagine major nations of the world with disparate agenda, gathering to hammer out a practical deal. Bank CEOs are grilled on Capitol Hill. Meanwhile, the financial rape of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac continues, according to BOVE. E-Mail Questions & Comments: Podcast@OdeonCap.com

This topic-packed CONVERSATION opens on a favorite theme, the peaking in US inflation with the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers in the spotlight. Consumer prices overall rose 0.1 percent in August compared with July when prices stayed flat. The 12-month inflation rate last month dropped to just 8.3 percent, down from 8.5 percent in July. That was higher than many economists had expected. Core CPI rose 0.6 percent in August, double the rise in July. According to Moody's Analytics, the average American household is spending $460 more per month compared with a year ago for the same basket of goods and services. Still, DICK BOVE, chief investment strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP, says all the latest data confirms that inflation is peaking. "It went in the right direction, " he says. MAT VAN ALSTYNE, ODEON co-founder and managing partner, agreed, noting that the CPI is a lagging indicator. VAN ALSTYNE nevertheless lays out a scenario in which the Fed could reverse course on its present campaign to tame inflation with a succession of interest rate rises. The CONVERSATION learns from BOVE about the sharply different strategies by Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley in the face of the recession anticipated by many on Wall Street. "It is going to be a tough period ahead for us," BOVE says, referring to the general population. "People are going to lose their jobs." When the CONVERSATION turns to the housing market, JOHN AIDAN BYRNE presents the bullish forecast of one realtor in New Jersey despite the rise in mortgage rates. BOVE picks it up.

Using an LLC is a powerful way to protect yourself from the liabilities inherent in owning rental property. We have had the discussion of whether you should use an LLC or an umbrella policy on the show before so we will dive into the details of setting one up. Today, Emil asks Michael about the process of creating and managing LLCs in regard to real estate investing.   Before we jump into the episode, here's a quick disclaimer about our content. The Remote Real Estate Investor podcast is for informational purposes only, and is not intended as investment advice. The views, opinions and strategies of both the hosts and the guests are their own and should not be considered as guidance from Roofstock. Make sure to always run your own numbers, make your own independent decisions and seek investment advice from licensed professionals.   Emil: Hey, everyone, welcome back for another episode of the Remote Real Estate Investor. My name is Emil Shour and today I'm joined by…   Michael: Michael Albaum   Emil: and on this episode, I'm going to be putting Michael in the hot seat and asking him questions about putting his properties in an LLC. We'll quickly cover why he did it and then I'm just going to ask him how he did it, what he learned what tips he can offer you. So that if it's something you've been interested in, you have a step by step guide on how to do it. So let's hop into this episode.   Before we hop into it, what's up, man? It's been it's been a while since we recorded up so…   Michael: I do I know it's been a minute I'm doing well, thanks. Trying to get some financing lined up on these three multifamily that I got the rug pulled out from under me on so still working through that but construction project, the rehab projects almost done, which I've been told is almost done for a while now. So I'm not really holding my breath but really I think this time for real is almost done. So let's get to you Emil, how about yourself?   Emil: I think you when we started this show like two years ago, you told me it was almost done. So I don't know if that's true.   Michael: That's true, I believe it…   Emil: I hope, I hope it finishes soon.   Michael: Thank you me too.   Emil: Good. My update with me, we are still selling the Jacksonville property. We just got it under contract but a week and a half ago, I want to say we did inspect the buyer scheduled inspection on Thursdays so I should probably be hearing back from my agent like today or tomorrow on I'm sure you know what, what they want to knock the price down based on seeing the inside, which I knew going into it like, once the inspection is on the inside, you know, we've had a tenant there for five years there. They're definitely gonna want some. They're gonna ask for something. So I'm expecting it. We'll see how that goes.   Michael: Okay, cool. Well, keep me posted, let me know how it all shakes out.   Emil: Yeah, man. Absolutely, so this episode, you know, a lot of people think in in a previous episode we covered what should you do an LLC? Should you put your properties just get umbrella coverage. In this episode, we're going to really just focus on like the steps that you personally took on setting up an LLC getting your properties in things, you learned mistakes, you made all that stuff but before we hop into like the how can you briefly give us the why, like, why did you decide to set up an LLC and put your properties in it?   Michael: Yeah, totally. So I grew up in the insurance world. Next question. So like, it's, it was something that I grew up around, like segregating assets, and like, understanding what risk is and how to mitigate risk and so that's really, from my perspective, what an LLC is used for, you put things into an LLC, that's bucketed and so that's kind of the limit of your exposure and so I used to work as a fire protection engineer and the commercial property insurance industry and that's also kind of on the physical side of things, what we would do, we would say, okay, how bad can a fire get and can we physically build a building and put systems in place that will contain that fire, so it doesn't spread to the rest of the stuff because if you have a small fire, it's usually not a big deal. If it's contained, it's not necessarily the end of the world versus if you burn, burn the whole plant down, that can be very problematic. So same kind of thinking can be applied to asset protection from the real estate investing side of things.   So it just made sense to me to bucket things in their own bucket, and keep them totally separate from my own assets. So therefore, if I did have a fire, quote, unquote, metaphorically speaking, or physical one, as any listeners of the pod know, that I've had to, it doesn't affect the rest of my building, so to speak, the rest of my net worth or my nest egg. So just keeping things separate made sense to me and so there's financial burdens that go along with that in order to have own and maintain an LLC. There's a cost associated with that. That overhead was worth it to me to mitigate that risk exposure.   Emil: Yep, makes sense. So did you did you set up an LLC before you bought your first property? Did you buy a property and then like quitclaim it in? What was what was your timeline for LC?   Michael: Yeah, so my very first two properties were Southern California single family homes, and so they didn't cashflow very much. If you live in California, the LLC has to be registered in California from everything I've been told and heard, if someone has a way around that I've been asking for years, let me know, I would love to not have to give California State Government 800 bucks a year per LLC. So those first two investments, I just had my personal name, I had high liability limits on the insurance policies themselves, like on the dwelling itself and then I also got an umbrella that sat on top of that, because that just made me comfortable on an umbrella for anyone who doesn't know what it is. It's basically a liability only policy that will sit on top of your existing policies and give you have limits across the entire portfolio and so the dwelling policy itself has a liability limit attached to it and so for me, I think I had like $2 million of coverage, or maybe 1 million on the dwelling and then I had an additional, I think, one or 2 million as an umbrella and so that can be applied across multiple properties but that dollar limit is like all that the insurance company would pay out in in any given occurrence and they also have an annual limit that they'll pay out in any given year.   Emil: Right, that's my current setup, I never LLC seed, I wanted to at some point, but…   Michael: Oh, good verb.   Emil: What LLC seed?   Michael: Yeah, you heard it here first folks, see new, new real estate investing verb…   Emil: Yeah, don't trust the words that make up. So I wanted to, but decided to just, I had an umbrella policy from the beginning on top of, you know, regular rental property insurance. So that's still my setup.   Michael: I think it makes sense for a lot of people and so you have to like understand what is entailed and what are the risks and benefits of having an LLC versus not having an LLC and just weigh the pros and cons? I definitely don't think it's you, like, thou shalt have an l like, no, you don't, I don't think you need one, necessarily. You just have to make sure that you understand again, what are the pros and cons for your situation and so it wasn't until I bought my third property and that was out of state that the cash flow cumulatively between all three was enough to support the 100 bucks a year payment. So that's when I did the whole LLC thing.   Emil: Yeah. Yep, that makes sense. I probably say, this is just my opinion, not legal advice, or anything. I probably say, once you're, when I did it, my net worth wasn't very big. I didn't feel like I had a lot to lose. I feel like when you start having more to lose, right, you're like, someone could personally come after more, probably a very, very good idea to make sure you have an LLC. So at the bare minimum, that's, you know, my opinion.     Michael: Yeah, totally and I mean, talk to like, talk to a legal expert, and get an understanding because they can really give you the breakdown, hey, this is this is what's exposed, or this is what's protected with an LLC, because the one thing I really hate to see as someone open an LLC, especially themselves think that they're totally protected, and then get totally shafted, you know, in a lawsuit or that sort of thing. So you really want to understand because you're setting up this system to protect yourself and your family and the assets, like spend the extra couple 100 bucks, whatever it is to do it right, and make sure that truly you have an understanding and a grasp of what is this doing and what are its limitations?   Emil: For sure, so that's a good segue. So at what point did you decide to LLC you, about the SoCal properties, didn't have an LLC.   Michael: So it was after that third, the third property that I purchased at a state, the cashflow was then enough on that, and then the other two, cumulatively to support that 800 bucks a year LLC payment to California. So at that point, I said, okay, let's move everything, put it into the LLC and now that'll kind of be its own standalone thing and so that that just made sense at the time and so I kept a very similar insurance policies structure, where I had the same liability limits on the property itself and then I also had the umbrella for the LLC that sat over those three properties.   Emil: Got it, okay…   Michael: Because I'm neurotic.   Emil: So, I think you're just being smart. So walk us through that you because now that you have properties, you have to do what's called a quitclaim of the deed, right from your name into the LLC. So we'll get to that but what did you do? Did you hire a lawyer? Did you just go on, like Rocket Lawyer or one of those online? How did you do it?   Michael: Yep. So I did it myself. I went on, like I think was like LegalZoom, or one of those type situations where you can set up your own LLC. In hindsight, I probably wish I had used an attorney, just because it was totally brand new and I was worried about making the wrong choice or selecting the right things. So in hindsight, I wish I would have spent the extra money just to have it done, right but for the quit claiming process, I use an attorney and we've had her on the podcast before Kelly Chrisman. She's amazing, she's awesome, really well versed and all this sort of stuff. So for the two properties I owned, I quit claimed those into the LLC and for this third property, I knew I wanted to basically start an LLC to take property ownership and so I actually did that concurrently, while I was in escrow and got the LLC opened before the property closed. So that actually took title directly from the seller into the name of the LLC. Because the more you can keep your name off the chain of title, apparently that's more beneficial. So I was like, okay, like, I'll just do that because I wanted to do it anyhow. So instead of closing in my personal name, and quit claiming, I just went straight to the LLC and it was a private lending note. So that was no problem to close from the lending perspective in the name of the LLC   Emil: God, okay, so that's, that was gonna be my next question is like, what are the differences in, like the process, when you buy in your personal name, I think you've highlighted on the first one, you can get a loan based on you, you as the individual, when you get in an LLC, it's a little bit different, right?   Michael: Right, so my understanding and definitely chat with your lending partners professionals out there, but my understanding is that like the government subsidized conventional loans, the Fannie Freddie type products cannot be titled in the name of the LLC, they're not going to lend to the LLC, they're going to lend to Emile Shour, or Michael Albaum, or Pierre Carrillo as individuals, not as entities can, commercial mortgages, totally different space, different ballgame, we actually just recorded a podcast with a commercial lender and a conventional lender, their husband and wife team and so that was really interesting to kind of get both sides of that coin but if you're going to get a non-conventional mortgage, you can likely get one in the name of your LLC, or some sort of business entity and so I would just simply ask your lender, hey, this is what I'm trying to do. This is the goal I'm trying to accomplish. What's the best way to do this and if they say, well, you need to close in the name, or your personal name and you eventually want to get it to the LLC, ask them oh, hey, can I transfer to the LLC after the fact? Some lenders will say, no, you may not. Others might tell you, yeah, the loans closed, do whatever you want, we don't care. So that might affect your lending decision of who you ultimately get financing through because if someone tells you no, don't do that, do you really want to go get that loan from that lender might kind of make you take pause and think twice about it.   So again, be super forthcoming with all the information, give them the goals, the strategies, the hopes, the wants to dreams, so that they can really help structure what loan product makes sense for you because if we just give them the transaction piece of it, and we're going to do something different down the road, it just, they're not giving you the best advice, because they don't have the whole picture.   Emil: Got it, okay and so, if I have a brand new LLC, and I decide to get a loan, in the name of the LLC, if it's a brand new LLC, like how do lenders usually look at that brand new LLC, like, how do they deem it worthy of, of lending?   Michael: Yeah, so they'll in that instance, likely look to you as the borrower, and just be like, do you have enough money to do this and we're gonna make you sign a personal guarantee. So you're still I mean, even if a meal shore LLC 123, doesn't can't pay the debt, like a middle shore, can we're coming after you directly and so new businesses new LLC, is are started all the time to take over property ownership or to receive property ownership, essentially and so I think that's something that they're used to, if they balk, and say, oh, you need two years of like business tax returns, like, obviously, new businesses won't have that and so ask them: Hey, how do we work around this? Can I give you a personal guarantee? What do you need from me to make this happen?   Emil: Got it, okay. Good to know. Let's see what else we want to ask you. What other parts of the transaction are different? So financing can be some that you need to ask your lender might, you know could be different. What else was different about buying a property through an LLC versus in your personal name.   Michael: The one of the main differences from a process standpoint, really nothing that the two are equivalent, you still get an inspection, you still negotiate with the seller. One thing I would definitely recommend people do is if they are considering purchasing in an LLC that might not be in existence yet. As you put your name on the purchase and sale agreement, put your name or assignee, and that basically allows you to assign the contract to someone else and so it's something that wholesalers might do and if someone asks about it, just say like, no, I'm just not sure it's either gonna be B, or my LLC. I'm just not sure yet. I haven't created it yet and that way, you can assuage any fears that oh, someone's trying to wholesale this deal on me but that makes it super easy for once you open your LLC, you can now say, okay, it's not Michael Albaum, it's Michael Albaum, LLC, 123, whatever, whatever that entity is.   And then the other thing to keep in mind is like the money flow, for how you physically need to purchase the property. So if you do purchase and close in the LLC, the money needs to come to escrow to the title company, from the LLC and so in your example in the like, you were asking, what if it's a brand new LLC, so if you're buying $100,000 property, and the bank's giving you a loan for 80, you're bringing 20, you Emil would transfer that 20 grand into the LLC bank accounts, which then that's where you're going to wire the money from to close the deal over to the escrow company as opposed to wiring it from Emil Shour checking account over to the escrow company. So you want to be able to show very clearly that this is the LLC is asset. This isn't a meal shores asset.   Emil: Got it, I'm glad you gave us that note about either your name or assignee because you're right, a lot of wholesalers use that and it's funny, you bring that up, because on the Jacksonville property, we got a couple offers, and they had that language and we didn't choose some because we're like, you know, wholesaler like those deals can fall out, they have to go find a buyer and you know, not as strong as someone who's just coming to buy it. So like, if you mention, you know, if you're you have your agent mentioned to the selling agent, or whatever, that I'm putting that in, because it's going to be my LLC, it's gonna get looked at differently. So good thing to clarify when you write that offer.   Okay, I think that was most of the questions I had for you. Any big lessons you had from the process? I think you mentioned a couple but if you could do it all over again, what you did differently?   Michael: Yeah, I think I would just have an attorney do it from the start draft up the LLC documents. It's also super important to keep in mind of if you don't live in the same state as where the property is owned in the LLC. Like, what is the registration process look like and so I've done it both ways. I formed a California entity, and then registered as a foreign entity in the state where the property is owned. So for me that was like Kentucky, or Alaska or Ohio. I've also done it the opposite, where I formed the LLC in Ohio, and then registered as a foreign entity here in California and so again, not legal advice, definitely chat with a legal professional. But from my experience, the LLC needs to be registered in both locations in California, because that's where I live and in the state in which the property is owned as well and there are certain things, taxes forms filings that I have to maintain for both states, which are separate and distinct and so making sure that you're in compliance with the local state, governing rules and regulations around LLCs. You also need to have a Registered Agent. If you're not living in the same state in which the LLC is owning the property. You might even need a registered agent if you do live in that same state but basically what a Registered Agent is, is someone or some company that can receive court papers on your behalf really is what typically is getting served.   Like, is there, like where do we send the mail to and so that's what a Registered Agent is. So there's businesses and services out there that can do that for you. I just use like a service provider that handles all that I've also used like my CPA or my property manager, that can also work but you just want to check and understand the local rules and regulations around who can and can't be a registered agent for you.   Emil: Yep, illegal zoom all those internet you know, LLC providers, they usually have that as like an add on option as well. So if you're like how do I do that? They make it super easy, like very, very common thing and make it super easy for you.   Michael: Yep…   Emil: You know, if you do want to talk to a lawyer, your accountant a good accountant can be very helpful here as well. They don't bill you for a 30 minute consult, so accountant can be helpful here as you're trying to figure this stuff out as well.   Michael: Absolutely, absolutely.   Emil: Cool, man. I don't have anything else. I think that's probably a good spot. This was this was actually enlightening for me because I haven't gone I mean, I have an LLC for my business but not for a rental property. So this was this is good for me as well.   Michael: Yeah, right, alright man. It got us all helpful.   Emil: Thank you everyone for tuning in. Please, please, please leave us a comment. Let us know what you liked what you want to hear in future episodes, wherever you're listening to this and we will catch you on the next episode. Happy investing.   Michael: Happy investing.

Former Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Mark Calabria says the housing industry is poised for another meltdown, citing high delinquency rates, low supply and loosening credit standards. In an expansive and candid interview, the former GSE regulator predicts Fannie and Freddie will likely fail again despite his best efforts. He details what went wrong and why, and offers an inside take on the GSEs' relationship with their regulator. 

It's the Cinco de Mayo episode of the real estate Braddahs!We're bringing in the latest in Hawaii statistics that are impacting investors.Also, included in the discussion are national and mainland news, the chosen scam for this month, what's happening with the current interest rates, all about Fannie/Freddie condo loans, industrial investment, transforming workforce housing and continuing US renters migration.Don't forget to browse all the past videos at https://reialoha.com/videos-articles.1:13 Real Estate Statistics in Hawaii (April 2022)3:11 Interest Rates in Perspective6:04 Scam of the Month8:49 Fannie/Freddie Condo Loan Change10:44 Feedback: Ozone Generator Termite Exterminator15:18 Cost Segregation and Bonus Depreciation17:33 Industrial Investment18:40 Transforming Class B&C Workforce Housing23:11 US Renters Migrate Towards Feeder Cities25:58 Student Housing Development26:36 Frequently Traded Multifamily Assets See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

Listen and Learn. Many new real estate investors have never seen interest rates RISE significantly. Today the Fed is talking about a possible 2.5% rise in short term rates. That could mean your ALL-IN interest rate on your apartment loan could go to 5.5%-6%. Wow!! What impact will that have on your apartment investment? What impact does that have on adjustable rates on Fannie/ Freddie and Bridge loans? How much additional cost will I have to pay for an INTEREST RATE CAP INSURANCE? Mike reads a recent letter he received from his loan servicer with a FREDDIE FLOATER (Adjustable Rate) on it. Listen to how much his monthly impound cost will rise… to buy a required future interest rate cap. I think you will be astonished. Listen to the guy that bought over 10,000 apartment units. Are you interested in learning more about how Multifamily Syndications work? Please visit www.spiadvisory.com to learn more about Michael Becker's Real Estate Syndication business with SPI Advisory LLC. Please leave us a 5 STAR RATING on iTunes; if you enjoyed this podcast.

2-2-22 | Daily Millennial Mortgage Update | Mark JonesVisit https://www.millennialmarkettalk.com Subscribe to Apple Podcast, Spotify, iheart, Facebook, to listen on the go Daily. This is your Millennial Mortgage Update with Mark Jones, Producing, Branch Manager, of Directions Home Loan at La Cantera in San Antonio TX. Tune in to get your Daily Mortgage & Real Estate Update in Minutes from a Millennials Perspective. This is for Consumers and industry Professionals to stay current with what's going on in our world.Host :Mark JonesFounder of https://reviewmymortgage.com/Branch Manager Directions Home Loan La CanteraTop Producing Loan OfficerNMLS# 513437Get in Touch with Mark.https://lacanteraloans.com/loan-officer/the-mark-jones-team/Link to Full Article https://www.americanbanker.com/news/fannie-mae-freddie-mac-to-add-desktop-appraisals-to-systems-in-marchGet Educated and Inspired with your host Mark Jones, Co-Founder of ReviewMyMortgage.com, Top Producing Branch Manager for Directions Home Loan, and an Investor out of San Antonio, Texas.  Mark has spent the last nine years of his career in mortgage, doing what he can to educate and streamline the process for his borrowers, loan officers call Ma and colleagues. He believes that everyone is a home buyer it's just a matter of when and his goal is to show you how. Educational Podcast for Consumers, Mortgage & Real Estate Industry Professionals. We'll Talk About It All!  Key Factors podcast, powered by https://ReviewMyMortgage.com . Your Host Mark Jones invites Industry Pros to help uncover & educate on the key factors of various topics. There's something for everyone so let us be your guides and get educated. Subscribe & Follow on Spotify, Apple Podcast, Facebook, Instagram, & all other podcasting platforms.  Host : Mark A Jones Founder of ReviewMyMortgage.comProducing Branch MangerSr. Loan Officer. NMLS ID# 513437NMLS Consumer Access: http://www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org/Powered by ReviewMyMortgage.com Listen to Weekly Industry Topic Discussions on all podcast platforms by visiting this link https://www.keyfactorspodcast.com/

FHA - the Federal Housing Administration - www.HUD.gov - has increased the loan limits for 2022.   Hi again, everyone. Caeli here. Happy New Year to you, all. I just finished recording a video announcing the new conforming agency, a.k.a. Fannie/Freddie loan limits. I am now going to provide the FHA not to be confused with Fannie/Freddie loan limits as a quick distinction.     FHA and VA and USDA does "Govvie" as we call them in our industry, loan products only apply to owner occupied or primary residence transactions. And as we saw some increase to the conforming loan limits as it applied to Fannie/Freddie.As such, FHA has followed suit. So I have those numbers for you. The old FHA County loan limit baseline was at $365,362. I've got my cheat sheet over here. The new conforming loan limit for FHA is now $420,680.Just like the Fannie/Freddie loans, FHA does have high cost areas. Those are going to be Hawaii, California, Alaska, Connecticut, places like that. And those high cost areas are going to be for single family residence. All of what I've said so far is for single family residence.     The oldest $822,375, the new FHA high cost area loan limit is $970,800. Hopefully this is helpful to you. Those of you are looking to utilize FHA for your owner occupied transactions. We look forward to hearing from you and serving all of your lending needs.     Thanks for listening.Caeli Ridge

How to Be an Apartment Syndicator Thomas Morgan, Attorney with Sherman & Howard Tanner Bickelhaupt, CEO and Founder of the Tanbic Company   Tom Morgan works with apartment syndication and funds for Sherman & Howard. He's been there for about 8 years, after serving in a similar practice for 15 years prior. He has a background in taxes and securities.  (13:20) “I draw on that to structure the transactions, because they're both intertwined, because of how you structure the cash flow, the deal, the flow of funds, and then also how you make it complaint to raise money from the investors,” said Morgan.  His current practice focuses on capital markets, securities, finance, real estate mergers and acquisitions, and corporate and transactional law.  Tanner Bickelhaupt also works in acquisitions and says Morgan is his go-to guy anytime he's involved in that process. Syndication (:50) – Tanner Bickelhaupt says once Tanbic decided to get going on a project, his attorney, Tom Morgan, was his very first call. Once he's set up the trust fund, he sat down with his lawyers to figure out the path forward, including things like who would be the investor and what disclosures and other forms are needed. (2:47) – Morgan says getting a company's goals and focus in line is a crucial first step. Consider whether you're looking for a value add, low-income housing, whatever it may be – there are many different types of multifamily investing. Also consider how many investors will be involved and in what capacity. Lender financing is another piece of the puzzle to be solved. “Is it a traditional Fannie-Freddie, a CMO loan – which Tanner loves, I know – they're much more complicated, with many more fees and restrictions involved than your traditional Fannies and Freddies. And I think I've already said, but where's the asset? What is the asset? Do you have it already? Are you planning on trying to raise money then go out and buy something? Are you looking to do one property or multiple properties? All those questions are the initial mix of things you'd need to know to see where to go with the project,” said Morgan.  (5:50) – The team is very important. Morgan brings up that there are all sorts of disciplines. One is securities regulation, which is Morgan's specialty. That's focused on compliance, disclosures, filings with the SEC and various states, and the finance portion of dealing with lenders and loan structure. Then there's the straight buying of the real estate and getting to work on a construction project. Buying an existing apartment complex is a separate discipline.  (7:50) – Bickelhaupt says this is the one spot you can't cut corners. It's important to be prepared and put a good team around you. Morgan says he'll see people cut and paste from samples without understanding what goes into it. Lots of people bite themselves in the foot that way.  (11:14) – If you aren't in compliance with securities laws, you're basically guaranteed to fail your investors. Investors can ask for their money back if you don't present the right information, if you omitted material information, or if anything was misleading. (14:35) – Most of Morgan's work involv

Protecting Investor Wealth During Market Downturns Tanner Bickelhaupt, CEO and Founder of the Tanbic Company   Tanner Bickelhaupt has been investing, developing, and looking at new deals for the full cycle. He owns and operates a management company and has been successful across several asset classes in different markets. He's also made it through different economic cycles and come out on top.  Just Because the Market is Good Doesn't Mean You Don't Need to be Cautious (1:30) – Right now, the markets are at a high. It's normal to talk about how to protect investor wealth during a downturn, but you can't forget about precautions during the good times.  Bickelhaupt says some syndicators are in the mindset that they have capital and want to spend it right now in a get-rich-quick scheme. The healthier viewpoint is just to invest and preserve capital.  “Basically, how can I have enough runway? Because the things that never happen, happen all the time,” said Bickelhaupt. The pandemic was the perfect example of that, but it proved people always need to live somewhere. “We like what we can control, but we like the peace of mind knowing we're owning real good real estate that's being operated really well and we don't have a lot of surprises.” (4:20) – Growth for investors is very aggressive right now. Cap rates are the lowest they've ever been. People are buying up C and B class properties. There's a huge demand along with a slowdown in ability to build, so right now it seems like things are only going to continue to grow. That's especially true in the markets Bickelhaupt operates in, like Scottsdale, Arizona.  “The brokers will tell you, I've cost myself. I started locking in debt 2 years ago, 10-year, with the anticipation that rates are going to go up, but I just liked the fix that it provided a large fluctuation of cash flow,” said Bickelhaupt. “I would never even talk about bridge debt 2 years ago, but the bridge debt terms in that market have changed so much that we do talk about it. We're looking at a deal right now where that might be the play. We feel there's some low-hanging fruit that we can change stuff very quickly, we do not want to lock in that long-term debt but I will lock it in as quickly as possible. So the business plan would not be take it, flip it; it would be ‘Let's create the value then go put more debt on it, and we'll keep it.'”  Bridge financing can increase investor returns, so syndicators like it. You can hit 85% LTV, compared with a Fannie-Freddie set up where you'd get 65% or 75%.  “I really have to believe in the up-story to do that. Those deals are still out there, they're just harder to find.” (8:44) – Coming out of the pandemic, Bickelhaupt set up in an office in one of the apartment units Tanbic Company owns in North Scottsdale. Tanbic focused on what it already has and focused on rent collections.  “I think we had a lot of investors watching. We sent quarterly distributions, we didn't miss a cash flow. Now, we were down 30-35% on what the expectations were, but I think a lot of groups said, ‘Hey, we're pausing all distributions, we're going to stockpile cash' and that's a great strategy. I'd be lying if I said we weren't thinking about that. But, we were sitting on plenty of reserves.” Tanbic Company cash flowed then spent that on capital improvements. 

This episode is also available as a blog post: http://donnyferguson.com/2021/09/20/biden-strips-taxpayer-protections-from-fannie-freddie-losses-ahead-of-possible-market-crash%ef%bf%bc/ --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/donny-ferguson/message

I am getting my second Pfizer COVID-19 Vaccine in a few hours. --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/bling-viera/message

This week Cassandra and Rachele talk about Fannie & Freddie and the new announcement that they are capping their portfolio at 7% for investment properties and second home mortgages. This is a meaty topic for buyers, sellers, and lending money! What could possibly go wrong? Get ready! SO MANY QUESTIONS YOU DIDN'T EVEN KNOW TO WORRY ABOUT!!!Join us! Don't worry, Cassandra and I will over-explain everything & we'll take your questions - Post in the comments and we'll do our best to answer!Welcome to the Agent Rachele & CEO Lender Show.Rachele Evers Contacts:Website: https://therachele.kw.com/FB: @AgentRacheleIG: @agentracheleLN: https://www.linkedin.com/company/76600293/Phone: 810-923-5421Cassandra Evers Contacts:Website: www.ceolender.comFB: https://www.facebook.com/ceolenderEmail: cassandra@ceolender.comPhone: 269-207-2193

Happy Holidays to everyone! Join Dave and Matt as they cover state of the market update for December. We share all of the current national and local statistics, updated 2021 projections from Fannie, Freddie, Core Logic Zillow, our thoughts on where the market is going and much much more. ***We are SINGLE MINDEDLY dedicated with our customers 5-star experience! *** Nobody knows the Real estate market like we do at the Dave Magua Group . We have a 32-year devotion to the real estate business. As a Multi-Million Dollar Top Producer, Dave and his team are responsible for Over $300 Million in Real Estate Sales and have been recognized in the Top 1% of all Realtors in the Nation! As full time dedicated real estate professionals, Dave and his team understand the unique challenges that face both buyers and sellers in this market and have the latest innovations and tools to overcome them. With their business experience and the latest technology and cutting-edge marketing, The Dave Magua Group streamlines the buying and selling process for his customers. With single property websites, professional photos and content, aerial drone photography, virtual tours, YouTube videos, and property tours optimized for mobile devices, sellers are assured of unparalleled marketing coverage across both web-based and social media platforms, including Facebook, LinkedIn, Twitter, and Instagram. Our team is dedicated to not only meeting...but exceeding every customers expectations, regardless of the size of their transaction. As a testament to that commitment, most of their new business comes from past client referrals. "WE KEEP OUR PROMISES, OR YOU DON'T KEEP US." PERSONAL MISSION STATEMENT

This episode is the Q&A portion from the 4/3 Agent Ignite Coffee Talk: How the Stimulus Package Affects Real Estate, and Equity Rich Zip-codes. Questions included wondering about how new home buyers are affected, more on forbearance rules and recommendations, Fannie & Freddie, and how lenders are putting a PAUSE on new transactions. Listen to this episode. RSVP to join the next coffee talk and reach out to Nicole Rueth directly if you have more questions. ----more---- RSVP:  Coffee Talk:   https://fairwaymc.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_5xzg3jN3SDiM8mHV4FNQ0w Agent Ignite:  https://theruethteam.com/Agent-Ignite Nicole Rueth, SVP The Rueth Team 750 W Hampden Avenue, Suite 500 Englewood, CO 80110 303-214-6393 www.TheRuethTeam.com Connect on social media: Follow me on FB: https://www.facebook.com/theruethteam/ Twitter: https://twitter.com/nicolerueth Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/company/the-rueth-team-fairway-independent-mortgage/ YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCPMdb94tUNMMsUTgdWRMDKw Nicole Rueth (NMLS 239840) is licensed to practice on behalf of OneTrust Home Loans (NMLS 46375) in the states listed below. For full compliance verbiage, visit theruethteam.com/compliance/. AZ, CA, CO, FL, ID, IL, IN, KS, MI, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NM, NC, OK, OR, TN, TX, UT, VA, WA, WI, WY.    

Jason Hartman and Adam today break down a video about how Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac influence the housing market in the United States. While their publicly stated goal is to make housing in the country more affordable, are they really doing that? Listen in to find out. Key Takeaways: [1:49] Fannie Mae Going Away? [4:09] The idea that we need a high home ownership rate is a false idea [8:41] How Fannie Mae props up the housing market [13:24] Fannie & Freddie have a stated goal of making housing more affordable, but they don't do that at all [22:55] If you're investing for yield rather than capital gains, the price of the house has much less importance [26:01] The importance of sustainable investing Website: www.JasonHartman.com/Properties How Fannie & Freddie Prop Up America's Favorite Mortgage by Wall Street Journal

Jason kicks this episode off with a financing offer for investors who have reached their Fannie/Freddie financing limit or are looking for an alternative to high-fee hedge fund loans. And later during the interview, the Executive Chairman of the Ayn Rand Institute, Dr. Yaron Brooks offers up his in-depth look at President Obama's and President's Trump's governing styles. Dr. Brooks is the author of the best-selling book Equal is Unfair: America's Misguided Fight Against Income Equality. He believes deregulation, decreasing taxes and shrinking government spending are the corrects paths to make the US government serve the American people in the manner intended by our forefathers. Key Takeaways: [2:10] Jason offers a limited supply financing opportunity, you can't refuse. [8:20] Trump's temporary immigration ban is upsetting tech executives. [15:54] Investing in paper investments when inventory is limited.     Dr. Yaron Brook Guest Interview: [19:16] Ayn Rand understood our culture so well she was able to predict the financial future.    [23:04] What does Dr. Yaron Brook think about Trump? [32:19] The president should be massively deregulating the US economy and shrinking government spending. [40:32] Ayn Rand believed Libertarians didn't focus enough on individualism. [42:21] Altruism is the idea that a person should live for the sake of other people. [45:29] Dr. Brook believes technology is the true reason for the loss of manufacturing jobs in America. Mentioned in This Episode: Jason Hartman Refi 'Til Ya Die! Ayn Rand Institute Yaron Brooks Podcast Equal is Unfair: America's Misguided Fight Against Income Equality