the Joshua Schall Audio Experience

It has now been about a year since Bayer suddenly shut down Care/of…the personalized nutrition brand it acquired in 2020. So, with hindsight providing us 20/20 vision…what can the supplement industry learn about this intense “rise and fall” business story? And you might be thinking, "aren't we too late to learn from the Care/of vitamins business story?" Though, anyone even remotely paying close attention to either the enormous shift in supplement industry marketplace dynamics, the complex (and ever-changing) world of personalized nutrition, and/or the ongoing turnaround efforts at one of the largest players in pharmaceuticals, consumer health, and crop science…knows patience was required to create decisive confident statements about this specific business event. So, my latest first principles thinking content will explore what really happened at Care/of and examine if it has broader implications to what was dubbed by many insider experts and (and mainstream news) sources as the “future of wellness.” Did the Bayer “billion-dollar consumer health brand or bust” mentality cause it? Was it an internal Care/of strategic failures? Or has personalized nutrition been overhyped and will never provide substantial long-term market attractiveness?

It's been said that "a complete picture emerges not from one fixed viewpoint, but from the understanding of multiple sides, each offering a unique piece of the puzzle.” And in any complex business puzzle, understanding different perspectives is essential…which is one reason why I've always enjoyed talking to Ryan Lewendon, as his law firm (Giannuzzi Lewendon), like my own strategy consulting practice, works with a wide variety of innovative, category creating companies that have helped define today's consumer packaged goods landscape. If you remember the last time we sat down together for a proper “recorded conversation” about 15 months ago, I took Ryan Lewendon through a Nickelodeon Guts “Aggro Crag” type gauntlet of trending CPG industry topics. But while this jam session is shorter in length…it equally shows our intense curiosity and passion for every aspect of the CPG industry, which I think can naturally lead to super impactful nuggets of insights for stakeholders within all this uncertainty that spans from MAHA movement changes to tariffs (and everything in between).Subscribe = Pour Decisions Podcast Also, an extra special thanks to Cognizin, for not only being the Title Sponsor of The Beverage Forum 2025...but supporting this awesome piece of content!

In the 1980s, it was pay-at-the-pump technology. But 40 years later, another technological risk has emerged in the form of electric vehicles. But while there's an additional bevy of other external threats to foot traffic like impulse purchase rapid delivery startups…it all comes back to how best can convenience stores draw consumers inside. And I believe the strategic answer is focusing on “controlling your own destiny.” So, what do Buc-ee's, Sheetz, Wawa, and Casey's have in common? They've garnered considerable loyalty nationwide (beyond their regional origins) with exceptional foodservice options. Similarly, many c-store brands (like 7-Eleven and Love's) are accelerating their private label growth…building customer loyalty and repeat visits. The fact is…within the last century, convenience stores have faced countless threats and successfully evolved into one of the most important U.S. sales channels with over 150,000 total locations.

Trump is back…but should stakeholders operating within the intersecting CPG categories of functional foods, functional beverages, and nutritional supplements be cheerful about his return to the oval office? This will certainly not sound like a “hot take” or anything, but the second Trump presidential term will undoubtedly offer a mixture of risk and reward…ushering in a new era of market volatility. As press secretary Karoline Leavitt recently pointed out, "there has never been a president who communicates with the American people as openly and authentically as Donald Trump.” But while I personally enjoy that operating model…it does create an economic environment that I recently described to an industry colleague as “best suited for master sailors.” And that's because the art of both the sailor (and businessperson) is to leave nothing to chance…but sailors are artists whose medium is the wind and today's businesspeople must be artists whose medium is correctly spotting Donald Trump's subtle hints that reveal upcoming events. Furthermore, I believe a key to potentially benefitting from the Trump 2.0 “driver of demand” requires understanding how to position against a few of his known (but converging) “the art of the deal” tendencies. And these would be (1) a little hyperbole never hurts, (2) confirm an impression they were already predisposed to believe, (3) never get too attached to one deal or one approach, and (4) sometimes your best decisions are the ones you don't make. Finally, it's extremely important to consider rate of speed and level of efficiency surrounding Trump 2.0 changes. Since this is a “been here, done that” kind of thing, Trump won't fumble through the initial phase of his term he will have a better understanding around bottlenecks and getting around chokepoints…including how to flex unilateral powers. Also, given that the House and Senate are Republican majorities (at least for the next two years), that political trifecta usually creates efficiency and makes for stickier policy changes. But the inspiration behind my latest first principles thinking content piece (or I guess content miniseries) was a Trump 2.0 section titled “rhetoric foreshadowing action is greater than embellished negotiation tactics” that I included into many of functional CPG brand and supply side client presentations during the last quarter of 2024. And while each of those client presentations were packed with diverse personalized insights…I'm confident this “Trump 2.0” content miniseries, filled with a refined (and expanded) version of my generalized “base case” strategies, will be extremely valuable to my regular audience. And I figured the final part should be "commerce" because it has a complex interplay with those previous parts. And to help everyone envision what's included within this part, it will start with the consumer spending and transition into areas that directly influence consumer behavior (e.g. social media like TikTok), before commencing around the underlying drivers impacting aspects of offline and online retail. You'll often hear veteran professionals throw around the claim that “the supplement industry is recession proof (or recession resistant),” but I wouldn't blindly put trust in that anecdote…as every economic downturn is different. But whether the current economic environment turns negative enough (and for long enough) to be deemed “the R word” shouldn't be what's overly worrisome.

Maybe it was just me…but did anyone else get excited weekly as a kid when it was pasta night? As the youth like to say nowadays…those carbs hated to see me coming. Yet today's “carbs are evil” conspiracy theory believing parents would never allow those same weekly “big back” moments. Instead, we've collectively broken the historical “pasta purity law” and adulterated one of the most perfect foods this world has to offer with dried chickpeas, red lentils, green lentils, and green peas. But if you've spent any time recently perusing the shelves within grocery stores, it's likely that you've noticed that high-protein claims are penetrating more diverse food and beverage categories. In addition to the ubiquitous protein bars, protein powders, and protein shakes…protein is going into everything that's quick, easy, and accessible. And that includes reimagining pasta night with high-protein noodles (and marinara sauce).

The RTD cocktail segment has experienced massive success in recent years, helped by its convenient format and the rise of the at-home cocktail occasion during the “Great Shutdown” era. But while the RTD cocktail market has seen an abundance of new entrants, as it predictably followed my CPG industry adage that “strong demand growth breeds intense commercialization activity,” there have been smarter and more effective launches as the category matures and has a clearer view of the consumer. And it appears these RTD cocktail drinkers are selecting health-conscious products with premium ingredients and flavorful options…oftentimes seeking a fun, refreshing taste of their childhood with an adult beverage spin. Moreover, A LOT of categorical success is in recreating or reimagining something where there's already consumer behavior. And that was a key motivating factor behind Adam Kost creating Dirty Shirley, a nostalgic yet boozy twist to the classic Shirley Temple beverage we've likely all enjoyed growing up. Last year, Dirty Shirley, which contains organic cherry juice, natural flavors, and super premium vodka, grew almost 1000% YoY. Yet, as you'll hear in our conversation, Dirty Shirley is only getting started by continuing to thoughtfully expand markets and creating a variety of powerful strategic retail and brand partnerships. Subscribe = Pour Decisions Podcast Also, an extra special thanks to Cognizin for not only being the Title Sponsor of The Beverage Forum 2025...but supporting this awesome piece of content!

It was just announced that David closed a $75 million Series A funding round…valuing the 8-month-old startup at $725 million. Launched the same exact day as my previous content with David Co-Founder (and CEO) Peter Rahal went live in September 2024, David's current valuation has already surpassed his first protein bar exit, which involved Kellogg's acquiring RXBAR for $600 million in 2017. But David will obviously use the investment to scale manufacturing, accelerate product development, and expand inventory to meet surging demand. Moreover, in an effort to strengthen its ability to scale…David acquired Epogee, the food technology firm behind EPG, a plant-based fat alternative that significantly reduces calories and fat without compromising taste or texture. And at first glance, it might seem like an odd use of capital to acquire an ingredient supplier…but in my latest first principles thinking content, I'll explain the beauty of this vertical integration investment decision. And I'm sure some industry pundits (or so-called MAHA nutrition experts) will cry that EPG is a step back towards the fat-free craze of my 90's youth. And you're entitled to that opinion but honestly keep it to yourself…because I'm a business-minded simpleton admiring the beautiful strategic alignment between protein bar consumers wanting a “protein-to-calorie” ratio like leading ready-to-mix and RTD protein shakes, and David gaining exclusive control over an important supply chain element making that possible. David isn't just another protein bar brand, it's a food technology company focused on building tools that make it easier for consumers to eat well without compromise.

Let's be REEEAAALLLLYYYY honest with ourselves here…do we really need a “better for you” Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) version of every nostalgic sweet treat? I understand that many of my fellow Millennial parents want to give our kids the same joys of childhood that we had, but can we agree that some of Willy Wonka's candy ideas should be off-limits? And that's because…even if sensory experiences can be closely mimicked, what's fun about dipping a pectin-based fruit strip into freeze dried organic fruit powder! I'd hate to use this short format for deep introspection, but maybe we should be asking ourselves…why are we so obsessed with making candy “healthy” anyways (and marketing it to children)? Are we projecting our complicated (and conflicted) relationship with food on the next generation…pretending that the process of pursuing health is one of constant pleasure and abundance?

After trying the Bloom Sparkling Energy drinks before its official launch last year (and getting a better sense of the overall go-to-market strategy), I provided a very rare public statement on a beverage within the pre-launch phase of the commercialization cycle. And for those that might think I'm capping…you can ask AI to analyze thousands of my short- and long-form content pieces over the last decade. Yet, it would only find one other occasion where I declared pre-launch that massive success was guaranteed for an energy drink. But just like GHOST Energy a handful of years earlier…something felt special about Bloom Sparkling Energy, even as most beverage industry pundits questioned the extension strategy by the “greens supplement company.” And within our conversation…Bloom Nutrition Co-Founder (and CEO), Greg LaVecchia, explained just how insanely successful the initial year has been surrounding those Bloom Sparkling Energy drinks. Also, we discuss how…with help from the Nutrabolt (and KDP) strategic partnerships, the brand is building on those breakout wins in the beverage category by launching Bloom Pop, its answer to what fans feel the modern soda category is missing. Subscribe - Pour Decisions PodcastAlso, an extra special thanks to Cognizin, for not only being the Title Sponsor of The Beverage Forum 2025...but supporting this awesome piece of content!

Beyond noting the obvious increased brand competition when predicting that 2025 would have a crazy marketplace setup developing within RTD protein beverages, I believed that mass and grocery retailers could start giving these products more placements outside of the typical healthy living/pharmacy merchandising sets. But while that remains to be seen within upcoming spring resets, there might be a new dark horse competitor that's already starting to make waves in the refrigerated dairy space. Because while shelf-stable RTD protein beverages are arguably superior for a multitude of business reasons, many of those challenges can more easily be overcome by a large-scale yogurt brand like Chobani. In launching its new protein-forward yogurt drinks, Chobani is hoping to position itself within the prefect intersection of GLP-1 second-order effects and grocery protein-ification.

In March 2023, I created a piece of content that thoroughly examined the UK-only limited time offer branded pre-workout supplement that Gymshark created earlier that year by basically partnering with UK sports nutrition brand Applied Nutrition. And at the very end of that content, I mentioned that “I didn't think we'd be seeing Gymshark create a permanent supplement line or even tons of these LTO launches...at least in the short-term.” But since we're well past that timeframe mentioned, Gymshark just created another LTO supplement, and the activewear categorical boundaries have been decimated lately by investment decisions from ALO Yoga, NOBULL, and Reebok...I thought it was time to relook at my previous consideration if Gymshark should launch a line of sports nutrition supplements. And "from Nike to lululemon to Alo, these activewear brands aren't just selling apparel…they're selling a lifestyle.” Essentially, it's my belief that in today's marketplace, younger consumers (especially) are increasingly looking for visionary brands that are radically and bravely changing both our individual and global cultures with exciting and bold new lifestyle choices. So, if you weren't picking up what I was putting down…strategic narrative boldness is attractive and brand distinctiveness is highly defensible from a competitive landscape perspective but has become increasingly rare and difficult to achieve, as it requires both an artistic and scientific approach to create a unifying, central idea with the right combination and orchestration of all brand elements. Yet, as I mentioned earlier, several activewear brands have recently made strategic investments that sought to innovate around their consumer's specific lifestyles (and altered legacy categorical boundaries). But what about Gymshark? Why hasn't the activewear brand evolved past traditional product category constraints to own a larger slice of its customers' identity? And before anyone points towards company size (based on annual revenue), Gymshark reported growing 9% YoY and generated just over $800 million in revenue during its latest fiscal year…a number that exceeds or puts it in relatively close proximity to those previously mentioned activewear brands. Instead, I think Gymshark struggled to continually show up as its unmistakable self, as the activewear brand attempted to gain more acceptance across the adoption curve. Said another way…Gymshark got lost during its pursuit of more customers. And I think that became a major factor into why founder Ben Francis returned as CEO in August 2021, despite Gymshark successfully scaling from a smaller brand. So, after embarking on an almost four-year journey…there seems to be singularity and focus once again with the marketing and brand building strategy. And its revived brand distinctiveness harkens back to why Ben Francis originally founded Gymshark in the first place…realizing “no one really made clothes for the bodybuilding scene.” So, even though launching “Gymshark Nutrition” would undoubtedly create a loss of focus on the core business…and the current landscape is arguably even more challenging (and uncertain) for the apparel industry, I'm convinced Gymshark could successfully evolve past traditional product category constraints to own a larger slice of its customers' identity. Doss is the first Adaptive Resource Platform (ARP). Book a live demo here.

Is Lifeway Foods a real-life CPG industry version of the hit television series Succession? About 16 years after the cultured dairy brand was founded, the daughter and son take over as CEO and COO respectively…when their father dies of a heart attack. But while Lifeway Foods (NASDAQ: LWAY) has generated years of growth, family members filed an SEC consent statement that argued “significant and repeated failures of corporate governance have harmed the business, its employees, and driven poor financial results for shareholders.” The brother, who left in 2022 and now serves as the president of a rival company…stated recently that leadership failures caused Lifeway Foods to fall behind other leading brands like Chobani. Additionally, claiming that “the company is running on autopilot and they're woefully under investing in marketing.” And if that wasn't enough…there's a website detailing the daughter's supposed deep and conflicting personal motives.

MusclePharm might seem the same to you…but it's radically different from my POV! But for anyone new to these quarterly content pieces, FitLife Brands sells more than 250 SKUs across 13 supplement brands…each with a slightly different product portfolio and sales channel strategy. In total, the FitLife Brands portfolio is sold through more than 20K retail locations globally. But throughout this content, you'll hear me categorize the FitLife Brands portfolio into three segments: Legacy FitLife Brands, Mimi's Rock Corporation, and MusclePharm. In the first quarter of 2025, FitLife Brands Inc. (NASDAQ: FTLF) had revenues of $15.9 million...which was down 4% YoY. But while there's strategic initiatives going on that involve the legacy FitLife Brands and Mimi's Rock segments, the most intriguing activity within FitLife Brands is also currently its smallest segment (i.e. MusclePharm). In the first quarter of 2025, MusclePharm segment revenue was just under $2.0 million...which decreased 6% YoY. And maybe you're hearing that result…thinking to yourself “that's not too terrible,” but I'll explain just how terrible that internal thought actually is about these MusclePharm quarterly numbers. I was quite confident that FitLife Brands understood it's a marathon (and not a sprint) with MusclePharm. Moreover, the last 5-7 years of MusclePharm brand mismanagement had provided a sizable amount of unlocked value that was just waiting to come out. Furthermore, doing the required “hard work” upfront to rebuild the foundation of MusclePharm for the long haul would inherently unlock enough short-term financial results to appease shareholders around the acquisition ROI. Yet…that's not happening right now! Instead, FitLife Brands has surprised me (and not in a good way), believing it would be better served in reaching arbitrary segment-level financial goals by not learning from various past MusclePharm experiences (like what became major underlying drivers of its bankruptcy) or how FitLife Brands is chasing a ready-to-drink beverage mirage with zero “route-to-market” expertise. When product-based differentiation proves unable to provide a long-term defensible moat within low barriers-to-entry CPG categories like sports nutrition, distinctiveness can transform a product from commodity into a perfect experiential foundation for brand storytelling. It's the strategic substance with signature style that sets your CPG brand apart from the landscape of lesser alternatives. And throughout the initial first-half of the “athletes' company” existence, MusclePharm had a distinctive brand identity that absolutely defined and then delivered its authentic self. But when FitLife Brands acquired MusclePharm in late-2023, it wrongfully assumed MusclePharm still had ample distinctiveness in the marketplace…or at least a sufficient amount to trigger emotional responses with enough consumers to justify its current strategic gameplan. That was a miscalculation…one that I believe will require FitLife Brands to thoroughly contemplate its strategic decision to “sprint the race without knowing its distance.” Finally, I end on a more positive note...examining the Russell 2000 Index inclusion possibility and likely M&A announcements coming soon with FitLife Brands.Doss is the first Adaptive Resource Platform (ARP). Book a live demo here.

Just when CELSIUS was beginning to drown…Alani Nu had the ring-shaped flotation device ready to save the energy drink brand. Celsius Holdings (NASDAQ: CELH) had quarterly revenue of $329.3 million, which was down 7% YoY. And while that activity now marks the third straight quarter of falling YoY revenue…the addition of Alani Nu next quarter will guarantee positive YoY growth restarted (albeit mostly from the non-comparable acquisition-related aspect). According to Circana last 13-week data, CELSIUS decreased by 3% YoY...but sustained place as the third-largest energy drink brand in the category with a dollar share of 10.9%. And I don't want gloss over this accomplishment…as CELSIUS became the first brand in over a decade not named Red Bull or Monster Energy that was able to capture more than a 10% share in the U.S. energy drinks market. Celsius energy drinks has seen massive growth in convenience stores, foodservice (e.g. fast food restaurants), mass retailers like Walmart, the club channel in retailers like Costco, and the Amazon marketplace. Additionally, the early international market development groundwork is starting to formalize with CELSIUS with performance continuing to exceed initial expectations in those recently expanded markets. It's my opinion that international expansion presents significant opportunity for incremental growth over the next three to five years. With Celsius at basically full distribution now…the TDP growth will have to come from increased items carried per store. Going forward, Celsius will increase items per store through a combination of product strategies like flavor, format, pack size, and variant expansion. Additionally, CELISUS will continue scaling up the new Essentials lineup that has exceeded the company's expectations. Moreover, they will seek more store placements like leveraging cold display activity in Celsius-branded coolers. If you missed the massive news from February, CELSIUS Holdings announced it had entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Alani Nu for a net purchase price of $1.65 billion. And the big news was that CELSIUS announced that, according to Circana last 52-week data for the period ending April 13, 2025…Alani Nu surpassed $1 billion in retail sales. But heading into next quarter, the combined brand platform of CELSIUS Holdings will have just over 16% category share (trailing only the Monster Energy combined brand platform and Red Bull). Also, because of the insane 70%+ YoY growth rate of Alani Nu, the combined brand platform of CELSIUS Holdings would be considered the fastest growing energy drink brand portfolio of the top 10 categorical competitors. But with the Alani Nu acquisition now closed…CELSIUS Holdings becomes an even more dynamically interesting company positioned favorably long-term. Lastly, with a great balance sheet...Celsius Holdings keeps strategic optionality available within (what I believe is) this market volatility fueled opportunistic period.

As the second fastest growing category within the entire grocery store surpasses 50% household penetration…have attractive fragmentation opportunities now been unlocked within RTD protein beverages? BellRing Brands (NYSE: BRBR) is a portfolio that owns a collection of convenient nutrition brands like Premier Protein and Dymatize Nutrition, which was previously wholly-owned by Post Holdings. A fast-paced and busy lifestyle is pushing consumers to switch to quick and healthy meal options. This has resulted in above average categorical growth rates and increased household penetration of RTD protein shakes that promote active lifestyles. Additionally, powders are becoming more mainstream, and category proliferation has created an environment where more consumers are purchasing both every day and performance nutrition positioned protein products at grocery stores and mass retailers. Bellring Brands had a strong 2025 Q2 with net sales reaching $588 million, which was up 18.9% YoY. Premier Protein (~90% of BellRing Brands total revenue) grew 22% YoY, which came from mostly volume increases. Dymatize Nutrition was up 3% YoY, stemming from volume increases within international markets and new product introductions. In response to these elevated sports nutrition competitive threats, BellRing Brands has attempted to invest further into Dymatize brand marketing and restarting product innovation. Though, I'd say neither effort has resulted in meaningful success yet. Moreover, I provide three deep dives into the functional CPG portfolio's "hero SKU families" of Premier Protein RTD protein shakes and Premier Protein and Dymatize protein powders. But my latest first principles thinking content will examine two emerging product innovation concepts that are becoming more popular (both in terms of product launches and customer demand). The first is around a richer and creamier RTD protein beverage…Premier Protein is calling its version “Indulgence” and BellRing Brands leadership noted on the earnings call that this new subline has demonstrated impressive incrementality, bringing in a considerable number of consumers new to the brand and category. Similarly, Quest Nutrition is also recently launched its “more indulgent” RTD protein beverages subline…calling it “Protein Milkshake.” But what you'll also notice about the Quest Protein Milkshake is that the protein content is much higher than the “unwritten 30 grams of protein rule.” So, now you're seeing competitors, that have brand equity will outside the performance nutrition buyer segment, start to push the upper limits of protein content. And finally, on the flipside…competitors are also testing the lower limits and seeking to attach protein with other beverage categories like carbonated soft drinks and water. So, what does this all mean? And I think there's still A LOT of opportunity to innovate within RTD protein beverages market, which will open up the category to more buyers, different use occasions, and more day parts. Doss is the first Adaptive Resource Platform (ARP). Book a live demo here.

Coca-Cola and Oreo becoming “best friends” seemed like a lost episode of Golden Girls. We have powerhouse century-old brands…both embarking more intensely of late into limited-time product strategies that get people talking, create excitement, and ultimately generate FOMO. But when this type of collaboration happens…we typically see one brand leading with product and the other supporting and elevating with marketing communications. And that's what made this collaboration special…as Coca-Cola and Oreo each played leading and supporting actor. The result was that customers got to experience two wild products…a creamy, cookie flavored can of Coca-Cola Zero Sugar and a cola-flavored Oreo cookie (with popping candies). This may all seem absurd (and personally have no appeal to your life), but at the end of the day…I think it reflects a cool trend across pop culture where highly distinctive efforts can get mainstream commercialization.

If you're going to come at the “king of the online sports nutrition market,” you better not miss! THG (aka the company formerly known as The Hut Group) recently updated the public markets by releasing its 2025 Q1 trading statement. I'll be utilizing that financial information, along with notes I took listening to the earnings conference call, and any relevant publicly disclosed information to obviously update you on the recent performance of THG Nutrition division that includes the world's largest online sports nutrition brand MyProtein, but also utilize everything to provide insights surrounding the global supplement markets. For those unaware, after the THG Ingenuity demerger...THG would now be described as a global, cash generative, health and wellness consumer brands group. During the first quarter of 2025, divisional revenue for THG Nutrition was approximately $196 million, which was basically flat YoY. And while those aren't necessarily great results…THG leadership noted that the segment saw month-on-month sales improvement throughout the quarter. Moreover, momentum was said to be demonstrated in categories outside of the core protein range, especially in activewear, vitamins, bars, and snacks. But I'll dive into several strategic decisions impacting MyProtein including: its global digital sales channel strategy, retail partnerships in physical retail, global "in real life" community events (i.e. HYROX and MyProtein Move Club) and let's just say A LOT is riding on the success of the MyProtein global rebrand. But basically 18 months after the start of its initial staggered market rollout, the transitionary impacts from the rebrand are now behind Myprotein. THG leadership reaffirmed that customer feedback continues to be promising, with unaided brand recognition for MyProtein now at its highest level to date. More importantly though…THG Nutrition leadership needs to pay close attention to key commercial metrics over the next year because to continue moving upstream in positioning (and unlocking sales channel diversification opportunities within the U.S. market) it needs to ensure this rebranding decision is well received by and generates brand affinity with those less price-sensitive customers. Interestingly, THG leadership noted that MyVitamins, which makes up around 9% of the total THG Nutrition online revenue, delivered record quarterly growth. But what's maybe most intriguing is how different the customer demographics of MyVitamins are compared to MyProtein…and its possible synergistic value with the other THG branded products segment THG Beauty. Finally, about a week prior to this earnings release, the board of directors at THG rejected an unsolicited proposal to acquire Myprotein. According to reports, THG turned down the (upwards of $800 million) offer from Selkirk, an investment vehicle, saying it “fundamentally undervalued” the MyProtein business. Additionally, the deal structure carried significant execution complexity and risks...but maybe the most interesting element was that Selkirk is run by a former THG board member and backed by Kelso Group, an activist investor in THG.

Dear Glanbia board of directors…don't be afraid to give up what's good for what's great! Glanbia Plc (LON:GLB) is a multibillion-dollar global nutrition company that's currently comprised of three divisions that span across the B2B supply chain (i.e. Health & Nutrition and Dairy Nutrition) and branded products (Performance Nutrition). “Health & Nutrition” is a leading global ingredients solutions business, providing value added ingredient and flavor solutions to a range of attractive, high-growth end markets. In the first quarter of 2025, revenue increased by 24.9% YoY. “Dairy Nutrition” is the number one producer of American-style cheddar cheese in the U.S. market, but more importantly (for my audience) the number one producer of whey protein isolate…and provides a wide range of dairy and functional protein solutions. In the first quarter of 2025, revenue increased by 18.9%. The brands in the Glanbia Performance Nutrition portfolio include; Optimum Nutrition, BSN, think!, Isopure, Amazing Grass, and SlimFast. Glanbia Performance Nutrition had first quarter 2025 revenue that declined by 6.6% YoY, driven by a volume decrease of 5.8% and a price decrease of 0.8%. Additionally, I'll dive deeper into Glanbia Performance Nutrition geographical, sales channel, product format, and categorial performance. Optimum Nutrition, which was the initial M&A transaction in 2008 that created the GPN division, now represents 66% of the total revenue. In the last year, Optimum Nutrition generated revenue of approximately $1.2 billion. Moreover, Optimum Nutrition is the number one sports nutrition brand in the world and also the top sports nutrition brand in close to 20 different countries. As part of its group-wide transformation program announced last November, that seeks to generate annual cost savings of at least $50m by 2027, leadership noted that a GPN portfolio review to ensure focus can be placed on high-growth opportunities had determined the divesture decision on its Netherlands-based direct-to-consumer ecommerce business, Body & Fit (that was acquired in 2017), and its weight management brand SlimFast (that was acquired for $350 million in 2018). Also, if you don't follow the Irish financial news cycle, you might have missed that the activist investor Clearway Capital is back again! But this time…Clearway Capital is hoping to get support from Tirlán Co-op, which is Ireland's largest, farmer-owned agri-food and nutrition business. Also, Tirlán is the largest shareholder in Glanbia. But while I couldn't get access to the exact letter sent to Tirlán, urging it to support a plan to split up Glanbia…Clearway Capital did recently address the Glanbia board of directors at its annual general meeting, requesting the global nutrition company initiate a strategic review into potential disassembly. And just like three years ago, I'm still largely aligned with those Clearway Capital statements. But the major difference surrounds our motivation as to why we've been urging Glanbia to be split up into two (or three different businesses).

It appears that Hot Pockets and I now live by the same mantra, “suns out guns out." And that's because if you purchased a package of those glorious frozen meat-filled hand pies lately, you noticed that Hot Pockets decided after 41 years to ditch its crisping sleeve. When Hot Pockets launched in 1983, that susceptor sleeve was a key part of the original packaging design that allowed for microwave cooking while maintaining a crispy texture. It was honestly a futuristic feature during a time when only about one in four American homes even had a microwave. But it appears Nestle made product changes that speed up the cooking process and enhance the overall Hot Pockets experience all without needing that microwave susceptor sleeve. I'm left wondering though…was this ultimately a low-hanging sustainability initiative or easy shrinkflation financial decision?

Mike Lindell was able to previously leverage the entrepreneurship 101 playbook…reaching levels of commercial success that most founders can only dream about. But does the “MyPillow Guy” really think revisiting that familiar strategy will be effective once again? Most successful entrepreneurs share a common thread…they solve personal pain points, seize opportunities others overlook, and remain committed to refining that idea into something impactful. And while you might dislike Mike Lindell for a variety of personal reasons, including the outwardness of his political affiliation, can we agree to temporarily separate “the man” from “businessman” and respect his journey? The idea for MyPillow, a pillow that would hold its shape through its foam design, supposedly originated from a random dream in 2004. But after diving headfirst into the project, spending hours cutting up foam, testing configurations, and eventually landing on a design that would allow the pillow to successfully hold its shape...he began selling what he claimed was “the best pillow in the world” at a mall kiosk. And while he experienced marginal success and media attention...everything changed when Mike Lindell started creating infomercials for MyPillow in 2011. By 2018, MyPillow had spent $100 million on infomercials…and at its peak, employing close to 1500 people, selling 30 million pillows, and reaching annual revenue levels of nearly $300 million. But that doesn't mean Mike Lindell's business dream didn't include its fair share nightmares (especially more recently), as numerous settled (or still ongoing) lawsuits have gotten progressively more negatively impactful. And there are a million information sources that can be found on the Google machine…detailing his passionate political support, various (mostly personal) legal matters relating to those political beliefs, and linked business struggles, but my content is only focused on the initial successful growth portion of the Mike Lindell business journey. And that's simply because it's maybe the most applicable portion when examining his newest venture Rev7 energy drink. Though with me revealing that…are you having the same WTF moment that I had when learning about Mike Lindell shifting from non-ingestible sleep products to ingestible energy drinks? And while I've “seen my share of mismatched things” over the last 15 years working deeply within the energy beverages space (across the various product formats), I'll fully admit that the Mike Lindell, MyPillow, and Rev7 energy drink strategic decision still has me a bit puzzled! But my latest first principles thinking content piece will attempt to hopefully make at least some sense of it…

The options for dietary supplements are virtually limitless at this point and whatever ingredients you want to ingest can undoubtedly be found in gummy form. In fact, I'd go as far as to say that we are living in the “golden age” of gummy supplements. But while gummies have become a staple within the supplement industry, format growth rate has normalized after the “Great Shutdown” spike. However, for you “gummy supplement haters,” don't misinterpret that slowdown as some type of leading indicator for a near-term market correction. Yes, more consumers are realizing that gummies aren't perfect…but they're also uninterested in totally abandoning the flavorful format that inherently promotes usage consistency. And that changing consumer behavior undoubtedly creates a market opportunity…one that I'm confident supplement brands will fully embrace unlocking through product innovation.

Don't you love the smell of a corporate takeover right after legacy brand portfolios experience cycles of weakness? On April 16, the board of directors of Science in Sport released a statement that confirmed it had received a possible takeover offer from the private equity firm bd-capital. Moreover, it noted that discussions were at an advanced stage…but there could be no certainty that a firm offer (with acceptable terms) will be made. But then about 24 hours after the takeover interest emerged, the legacy sports nutrition brand portfolio announced that it reached agreement on the terms of an all-cash acquisition by bd-capital. But while Science in Sport and PhD Nutrition are still two highly regarded supplement brands, the relentless pursuit of top line growth, during primarily the “Great Shutdown” era, led to some poor historic strategic decisions and an inflated operating structure. So, in the latter portion of 2023, Science in Sport established a new leadership team, performed a full business review, and reset strategic focus. And while these tough strategic decisions provided a more stable platform for future growth, and Science in Sport saw both operational and financial performance improvements…revenue did decline 17.5% YoY to around $69 million in 2024. And based on the Science in Sport Plc closing share price on April 15, the takeover offer by bd-capital represented a 24% premium…valuing the company at about $109 million. But while revenue and EDITDA multiples are a bit wonky, I'd suggest judging the purchase price beyond a set of financial metrics. Firstly, Science in Sport isn't the typical supplement company found everywhere within the U.S. market that deploys an “asset light business model” and essentially is a marketing company. In fact, three years ago, Science in Sport invested ~$10 million to build a state-of-the-art consolidated manufacturing and logistics hub. Next, the private equity firm had closely followed Science in Sport for several years…and believed the declining revenue period presented an opportunity to acquire two strongly positioned sports nutrition brands. And since Science in Sport is within the early stage of a strategic reset, bd-capital likely established enough confidence in early turnaround indicators, that along with its operator-led investment model, sector-specific expertise to support the development of the business (it also owns Symprove and Bonusan), and access to additional capital…could unlock growth potential over a reasonable timeframe. But then, the final portion on my latest first principles content will predict how bd-capital will unlock this next phase of Science in Sport Plc growth potential? And this includes the taking full advantage of the growing endurance nutrition niche of the supplement industry, geographical expansion, and omnichannel footprint expansion. Lastly, I'm fully aware that this corporate takeover isn't the largest, but at just over the $100M mark…it arguably represents a more typical exit event size (especially for a legacy sports nutrition brand portfolio that doesn't generate the bulk of its sales activity from functional foods and/or functional beverages). Unfortunately, the recent collection of billion-dollar M&A transactions, that involved brands that were incubated within the supplement industry, has started to wrongfully set an expectation of what success looks like. So, while those M&A transactions should be applauded…don't miss other categorical learning opportunities (like this one) by only obsessing over outliers.

If you remember from about two weeks ago…within the opening portion of another content piece about the specialty retail brand, I stated that “while we patiently wait for the approved chapter 11 bankruptcy restructuring proposal involving Franchise Group, which is the portfolio company that owns The Vitamin Shoppe.” And I recognized that a big announcement would be coming soon because I've closely watched the court proceedings, which was a promise I made to my audience within that original Franchise Group Chapter 11 bankruptcy from more than six months ago. Moreover, at the very end of that November 2024 content, I mentioned that "while it's highly-unlikely…The Vitamin Shoppe could be owned by a group that isn't the current debt holders. And if that happens…well, this content series will get a whole lot more interesting!" But here we are! On April 16, 2025, Kingswood Capital Management and Performance Investment Partners announced that they had collectively entered into a definitive agreement to acquire The Vitamin Shoppe from Franchise Group. And subject to customary closing conditions and regulatory approvals, the transaction is expected to close later within this current quarter. But I already know what everyone is going to think next…how much? Well…along with assuming liabilities, the private equity firms will make a cash payment of $193.5 million to purchase the assets of The Vitamin Shoppe. But after learning that information…you might be thinking, isn't that acquisition price quite low for a specialty retail brand that was generating over a billion dollars in revenue, reporting YoY growth, and achieving operational profitability in the trailing twelve months before the May 2023 Franchise Group management buyout? If I had all the updated financial information, I could answer definitively…but compared to the revenue or EBITDA multiples of CPG brands that you usually hear me breakdown, retail trade businesses are much lower. Yet, we can assume the private equity firms involved got a great deal, especially because of the Franchise Group bankruptcy situation. Though, if The Vitamin Shoppe was never off-limits, and the Franchise Group were always looking to make deals…why not sell it before the bankruptcy filing (you know) when you arguably have more leverage to increase the potential purchase price? Well…as we've learned through this bankruptcy process, Franchise Group did indeed gauge market interest and initiated a broad search for any potential buyers in connection with a potential sale of The Vitamin Shoppe on a few occasions, but no actionable proposals were received. And before I dive into any of my strategic commentary or predictions, it's probably contextually relevant to understand the asset purchase agreement stated that The Vitamin Shoppe was currently not growing revenue and failing to meet the Franchise Group profitability targets. So, this is not a specialty retailer that was thriving (or obviously in a place of strength) heading into a challenging consumer spending year…within a category reverting back to growth rates seen prior to the “Great Shutdown” era. But for the final part of my latest first principles thinking content, I'll analyze how the new ownership potentially impacts The Vitamin Shoppe. Also, I'll look for any established patterns of action within the private equity buyers...like when Kingswood Capital Management acquired G Fuel in 2023, it replaced the CEO. And that's exactly what it will officially do when The Vitamin Shoppe transaction closes...bringing back the previous CEO Sharon Leite.

What do you call the beverage category that includes Olipop and Poppi? Gut health beverages, prebiotic drinks, functional soda, or do you have something more creative? To be completely honest, that lack of naming clarity might be the biggest problem this beverage category is experiencing right now…which means life is pretty darn good (especially for those beforementioned market share leaders that are still doubling retail sales YoY). But who do you call when you have a problem [clip]? No, not them…how about Walmart! Well…the mass retailer recently announced the introduction of its newest category designation called Modern Soda. While this merchandising set will predominately feature modern soda brands already sold at Walmart, the centralized location will draw more attention to healthy alternatives with refreshed marketing approaches that appeal more with younger consumers.

I've highlighted countless shockingly awesome “marketing stunts” created by CPG brands in the past, but what 5-Hour Energy recently did honestly had me questioning reality. And that's because everyone already knows that portability is the biggest value proposition that small format energy shots have over their energy drink categorical counterparts. But what about in those rare “formal” occasions when it would be uncouth to put a 5-Hour Energy shot in your pocket? And that's why the brand partnered with a fine jewelry designer to introduce the first-ever refillable 5-hour ENERGY Cufflinks. These 14-carat gold-plated sterling silver, black enamel, and stainless-steel cufflinks are undoubtedly the most stylish (and energetic) fashion accessory ever created…which undoubtedly comes with an equally high-energy price of $1,000 each! But don't worry…the energy drink brand includes two bottles of 5-Hour Energy to entice you deal seekers!

Quest Chips are getting called up to the Big League…and that should make established players like Doritos nervous! In this latest episode, I'll utilize the Q2 2025 Simply Good Foods Company (NASDAQ: SMPL) earnings report, earnings call, and supplemental presentations that were filed on 4/9/2025 as the backdrop to provide broad nutritional snacking market insights. In fiscal Q2 2025, Atkins Nutritionals brand dragged down the overall portfolio performance, as Quest Nutrition beat categorical competitors in tracked channel retail takeaway (up 13% YoY). What's at the heart of the Quest Nutrition success? Quest Nutrition is still known for the original Quest Bar. And that means the company needs the bar business to be healthy for any of this innovation risk to make sense. But Quest Nutrition has proven it's one of the few brands that can successfully extend across multiple product forms...and its customer base expects them to come into an indulgent snacking category and flip it into great tasting (high protein, low sugar) offerings. The snacks segment of Quest Nutrition, which now accounts for half of all retail sales...and if we analyze one layer deeper, the salty side of the Quest snacks segment had quarterly retail takeaway growth of about 45%. The Quest Nutrition salty snacks platform now represents about 35% of the total Quest Nutrition net sales and provide a substantial share of new users to the brand. And I've been a broken record when it comes to stating that salty snacks are where the excitement (and focus) should be placed within Quest Nutrition, as the platform generates over $300 million in retail sales. And while that's super impressive…I believe there's a realistic path to doubling retail sales over the near-term. How? The single most important piece of this strategic growth playbook will revolve around expanding physical availability of the Quest salty snacks platform. So, utilizing its “categorical leadership” for leverage, Quest Nutrition has made “increasing the physical availability” of products a significant initiative within the organization…and recently landed a Quest chips mainline snacking aisle test within a large mass retailer. And if proven successful, I believe it would create a massive “snowball effect” that leads to increased display support, merchandising everywhere, and even new sales channel penetration. Also, I run through what's causing the weak brand performance at Atkins and explain actions the company is taking to change it…especially against the backdrop of GLP-1 weight loss solutions. In my opinion, you're going to see weight management brands like Atkins (and others) get repositioned on the right side of GLP-1 second-order effects through both product innovation (e.g. Atkins strong)...but most of the “innovation” will come in the targeted communication marketing strategies. Finally, OWYN had quarterly retail takeaway growth of 52% YoY...coming from a balance of distribution gains and velocity growth. Moreover, OWYN has significantly accelerated performance across all major sales channels (including ecommerce) and all key retail customers.

Is the “Age of Ozempic” reshaping The Vitamin Shoppe? In May 2024, The Vitamin Shoppe introduced a telehealth service called Whole Health Rx by The Vitamin Shoppe that safely and seamlessly connects patients with licensed healthcare providers in real time…streamlining access to GLP-1 agonist medications, both branded and compounded versions (that is until the FDA recently updated its drug supply shortage list, making compounding a FD&C Act volitation). Moreover, these telehealth services are offered alongside The Vitamin Shoppe's industry-leading education resources, as well as nutritionist-recommended supplements to help optimize the weight loss journey for healthy results. So, with Whole Health Rx by The Vitamin Shoppe targeting personalized care verticals, instead of a wide range of treatment and care needs like GNC Health…the better comparable company analysis would be Hims & Hers. And interestingly enough, within a piece of content from November 2021…my words arguably created the foundation for this entire Whole Health Rx by The Vitamin Shoppe strategy! But a behavioral change that arguably started gaining importance about a decade prior…when more individuals began viewing themselves as consumers in the healthcare market compared to solely being patients. Because of that, consumer healthcare has begun evolving from a reactive, one-size-fits-all approach to a distinctively proactive, personalized, and integrative approach. But as you'd imagine that marketplace evolution has created immense opportunities. Though, this why specialty supplement retailers must have a foundational mindset that place customers at the center of a flexible, almost choose your own adventure style of shopping…acknowledging wellness-minded consumers are also more “solution aware” due to the sheer access to information substitutions. And this was partly why my “vision for the future” included specialty supplement retailers and pharmacy (drug channel) retailers converging into wellness retailers. Specialty shouldn't mean singular solution, thus a retailer like The Vitamin Shoppe must continue evolving its total solutions to become a bigger part of the wellness journey. Alternatively, “trying to be everything to everyone” can be problematic, which is why I mentioned earlier about The Vitamin Shoppe essentially taking the “depth” over “breadth” page out of the Hims & Hers strategic playbook. By increasing optionality of solutions for only its most compelling valuable consumer cohorts, The Vitamin Shoppe can more effectively deliver an experience that removes barriers and provides access to better health that is approachable, personalized, and convenient. And while I believe physicians are quickly becoming more educated around how patients can manage the early phase of the process, what side effects to anticipate, and how to mitigate or manage those side effects…there's also a significant education and nutrition support role for specialty retailers, as consumers look for help navigating this new, confusing “Age of Ozempic” world. But with the launch of its new private label brand, GLP-1 Support from Whole Health Rx by The Vitamin Shoppe…the specialty retailer recognized it was well-positioned to fill a critical gap in the market for tailored nutritional support. But then for the final portion of my latest first principles thinking content, I wanted to give my outlook for Whole Health Rx by The Vitamin Shoppe.

We've all gotten to know Alexa and Siri quite well over the last decade, but are you interested in making a new friend? PepsiCo recently debuted its Gatorade AI Hydration Coach, Anna, that can provide consumers with personalized hydration advice based on 40 years of Gatorade Sports Science Institute expertise. While this AI chatbot is still being tested with broader availability coming later in 2025, the technology appears to be linked with Gatorade GX sweat patches. After finishing a workout session (or activity), you can quickly scan the Gatorade GX sweat patch with your phone to reveal personalized hydration data focused on helping you refuel and recover. I'd assume Anna will also integrate seamlessly with Gatorade Smart GX water bottles, but more importantly suggest complementary Gatorade sports nutrition products (that have been a major categorical priority for PepsiCo leadership of late).

I don't need to explain to you how biologically imperative it is to stay hydrated, but despite that undeniable fact…us older generations somehow managed to not only survive but thrive without our beloved “emotional support water bottles.” But these reusable water bottles are more than a creature comfort…becoming a canvas for self-expression and personal statements of style among the newest generations. Though, like other status symbols…water bottles come with trends that fluctuate, with a new coveted “it” option rising above the rest every few years. But while I'm hardly a cultural expert on trendy water bottles, I can remember the first water bottle to be perhaps equated with a lifestyle was Nalgene. Next, everyone was carrying around a CamelBak water bottles. Then, a cluster of “trendy” insulated stainless steel bottles from brands like YETI, S'well, and Hydro Flask. As we passed into the current decade, Simple Modern really took control…along with the Stanley tumbler phenomenon . And then currently, I'd probably say the must-have water bottles are either Owala or Ello Cooper. Regardless, the constantly evolving landscape makes one thing clear…water bottle trends are firmly entrenched within our culture, reflecting a society that continually seeks to define itself. But has anyone considered how (beyond water bottle brand choice) further expressions of identity have been evolving from “what adorns the outside” to “what contents are inside”? In the age of TikTok, sharing creative use occasions of your wellness concoctions can be a vehicle to translate niche health trends and a reliable virality path. And in today's world, there are as many “powdered wellness supplements” as there are personalities, and your choices can say a lot about you. To go one step further…these (basically) aspirational mixtures have become (like water bottles) a symbol of status, representing flavor taste, lifestyle taste, and identity by association. But while the synergy between trendy water bottles and powdered hydration supplements might seem obvious, Simple Modern did something unusual when it recently launched TREVI hydration. But why are “stick pack electrolyte drinks” bringing all the boys to the yard? According to recent last 52-week retail data from Circana, dollar sales within the stick pack hydration drink mix category surpassed $1.5 billion (and grew around 20% YoY). And if you consider the various untracked sales channels like ecommerce, that total categorical market size would increase substantially…making it arguably one of the most intriguing functional beverage subcategories. But all this recent fragmented commercialization activity is possible because Liquid IV took one giant leap forward in democratizing the hydration category. In fact, without the “Liquid I.V. Effect” starting to take meaningful shape maybe 6-7 years ago, Simple Modern would not have a viable (let alone lucrative) marketplace to position TREVI hydration as a product for “everyday life.” Though, despite the strong effort by Simple Modern, I just don't believe we will see many more popular drinkware brands jumping into powdered wellness supplements (at least in the same manner of leveraging the drinkware brand equity). But when you understand that the entire supplement industry has mostly a “sea of sameness” composition…there's a chance that differentiation (and defensibility) could be derived from having a unique delivery system (and/or bottle form factor) like Cirkul or Gatorade Gx bottles.

An almost billion-dollar supplement brand portfolio (you've likely never heard of before) just turned CBUM into a corporate sellout. So, let's talk about it! And even if this deal announcement was released publicly on April 1st…I guarantee there's nothing foolish about this M&A activity. But before I give you the legitimate “insider” deep dive insights I can guarantee won't be found anywhere else on the internet…it would be prudent of me to start by covering key press release details from the RAW Nutrition, BUM Energy, and The Quality Group M&A news. And since the bulk of my audience is based within the United States…maybe beginning with the “buy side” would be ideal. The Quality Group was formed in December 2020 with the business combination of the sports nutrition brand ESN and nutritional products brand More Nutrition. ESN was founded in 2004…and is now the sports nutrition categorical leaders within the German market. And then More Nutrition was founded 13 years after ESN but has leveraged a strong social media presence and influencer marketing…landing the nutritional products brand within the top 3 German market categorical leaders. The Quality Group is headquartered north of Hamburg (Germany) and employs more than 1200 people…mostly due to it currently producing more than half its massive product range in house. And while 2024 full-year financial results weren't released yet, The Quality Group reported revenue of around 680 million Euros (or about $750 million dollars) in 2023. Furthermore, the fourth largest global private equity firm, CVC Capital Partners, acquired a majority stake in The Quality Group about three years ago…valuing the business at 800 million Euros (or about $880 million dollars). So, as you can assume from that mid-2022 business valuation to the beforementioned revenue amount reported 18 months later…the two founders staying operationally active, CVC Capital Partners injection of liquidity, and experienced management team CVC brought on have grown the business substantially (and quickly). But maybe it was that last point, surrounding the desire to find a strategic growth partner and them allowing founders to stay operationally active, that ultimately led to this specific M&A transaction. So, effective immediately…RAW Nutrition's Co-Founder and CEO, Domenic Iacovone, and six-time Classic Physique Mr. Olympia Champion and RAW Nutrition co-owner Chris Bumstead will both become co-owners of The Quality Group. Moreover, RAW Nutrition and The Quality Group will remain independent partners as they seek to build long-term value for their consumers. Founded in 2019, Raw Nutrition had moderate success initially but has exploded since Chris Bumstead came onboard as a co-owner in September 2021. Over the last few years, Raw Nutrition has been recognized as the “Brand of the Year” by both GNC and The Vitamin Shoppe. Additionally, RAW Nutrition was recognized in 2024 as not only the fastest-growing sports nutrition brand (but fastest-growing CPG company overall) by Inc. Magazine. And I alluded to this earlier, but BUM Energy, an upstart energy drink brand created by Chris Bumstead in July 2023…was also included within The Quality Group acquisition. And the final portion of my latest principles thinking content will analyze the future outlook and possible implications surrounding the various stakeholders involved...including the RAW Nutrition, BUM Energy, The Quality Group, CVC Capital Partners, and the supplement industry.

Within my last quarterly content piece on FitLife Brands, I outlined my utter shock around leadership's inability to learn from past MusclePharm experiences and how “becoming a victim of product line extension creep” became a major underlying driver of its failure. Though, the strategic decision by FitLife Brands…pandering to a retailer request for this (or that) exclusive MusclePharm line extension, is an immaterially small mistake compared to launching MusclePharm Combat Ready ready-to-drink protein shakes. But for anyone new to these quarterly content pieces, FitLife Brands sells more than 250 SKUs across 13 supplement brands…each with a slightly different product portfolio and sales channel strategy. In total, the FitLife Brands portfolio is sold through more than 20K retail locations globally. But throughout this content, you'll hear me categorize the FitLife Brands portfolio into three segments: Legacy FitLife Brands, Mimi's Rock Corporation, and MusclePharm. In the fourth quarter of 2024, FitLife Brands Inc. (NASDAQ: FTLF) had revenues of $15 million…which was up 13% YoY. But though that YoY growth rate obviously looks strong, it's important to remember that those reported results were greatly impacted by the MusclePharm acquisition that closed in October 2023. While there's strategic initiatives going on at legacy FitLife Brands and Mimi's Rock, the most intriguing segment within FitLife Brands is also currently its smallest...MusclePharm. In the fourth quarter of 2024, MusclePharm segment revenue was $2.8 million. And while the full-year 2024 sales channel mix of MusclePharm was evenly split between wholesale and online revenue…the fourth quarter started to signal that the brand's biggest long-term commercial opportunities will come from offline retailers. I was quite confident that FitLife Brands understood it's a marathon (and not a sprint) with MusclePharm. Moreover, the last 5-7 years of MusclePharm brand mismanagement had provided a sizable amount of unlocked value that was just waiting to come out. Furthermore, doing the required “hard work” upfront to rebuild the foundation of MusclePharm for the long haul would inherently unlock enough short-term financial results to appease shareholders around the acquisition ROI. Yet…that's not happening right now! Instead, FitLife Brands has surprised me (and not in a good way), believing it would be better served in reaching arbitrary segment-level financial goals by deciding to chase various mirages. FitLife Brands has meaningfully begun almost zero of the “hard work” required in rebuilding connection and trust with customers, reconstructing the brand story, rebuilding community, and bringing it all to life with layers of compelling content. And because FitLife Brands decided sprint through the MusclePharm turnaround plan…instead of being strategically conservative to rebuild the foundation for future growth opportunities at MusclePharm, it will undoubtedly expose its weaknesses even more prominently (and create unnecessary burden) across the entire organization.

A famous comedian once said, “God has a sense of humor. If you don't believe me, tomorrow go to Walmart and just look at people.” And if you think that's harsh…you've probably never been lucky enough to experience the hilarious blog “People of Walmart.” But what if I told you that grim picture of the Walmart customer base isn't exactly true any longer? Yes, U.S. households making less than $50,000 annually still account for the largest share of Walmart's average monthly active users. But according to a recent Brick Meets Click report…Walmart's most affluent segment (households making more than $200k annually) has now expanded to 8% of the total. Walmart has been prioritizing affluent households during this “flight to value” economic period because they spend on average 1.5x more monthly on groceries compared to households in the lowest income bracket.

If you're a daily coffee drinker, it's difficult to overlook that the price of your preferred source of caffeine keeps grinding higher. In fact, the global price of arabica coffee has more than doubled over the past year...with a sharp upward price movement (since the start of 2025) pushing commodity prices of the cash crop to an all-time high price of more than four dollars a pound last month. So, what's going on? While the famous cartoon character Yogi Bear would say that I'm “smarter than the average bear” when it comes to coffee futures contracts…I'd hardly consider myself as locked into the ground level details of this commodity (compared to global dairy markets). But from my understanding…this is largely a supply issue stemming from changing weather patterns that have disrupted agricultural production around the world. And this reminds me of something I started getting louder about in 2021…that most CPG companies are largely unready to handle the ingredient shortages, input cost inflation, and supply issues caused by climate change over the next decade. But that's a good transition into the other economic variable…are all-time high commodity prices impacting U.S. consumer demand for coffee? According to the February CPI report, data showed that prices consumers paid for coffee (in all its forms) were higher 6% YoY…but was up more than 1.5% from last month. So, with higher coffee input prices not fully impacting consumer price…and coffee trade organizations reporting U.S. adult coffee consumption recently reached its highest level in more than 20 years, U.S. coffee demand has not been materially impacted YET. But from what I can see by perusing the recent earnings call transcripts of major CPG companies that own large coffee brands…retail coffee prices will continue rising aggressively into the second half of 2025. Obviously, the largest companies (meeting demand across channel, preparation, and/or format) are well-positioned and possess the strategic optionality to successfully hedge against these fluctuating business risks…but I wanted to shift this next portion of the content closer within the wheelhouse of my deep domain expertise. While I believe plain ole great tasting coffee preparations will remain a consumption evergreen for many decades to come (and likely still below its “peak consumption” point), I also think there's an emerging arbitrage…as consumers move closer towards this four-way intersection of taste, convenience, nutrition, and functionality. Moreover, every multibillion-dollar functional CPG category (such as coffee) is in the early innings of a remarkable transformation…with consumer behavior starting to evolve towards seeking multifunctional benefits that contribute to overall wellbeing. And that's because consumers don't want different habits…they want more beneficial ones. But the bulk of my latest first principles thinking content will explore how coffee price inflation could have major implications to the “energy everything” movement now (and into the future). This will include examining various winning sequence of dimensions shaping the future of coffee like packing more functionality into coffee, overcoming the biggest flaws of caffeine, coffee beverages becoming status symbols or basically aspirational mixtures, representing flavor taste, lifestyle taste, and identity by association, and how various food technology innovations like precision fermentation and cellular agriculture present hopeful aid to commodity inflation.

Which of these numbers is larger…the total contract value recently given to Juan Soto by the New York Mets or the total aggregate net income generated by CELSIUS energy drinks since launching 20 years ago? And if you thought that was a dig on Celsius Holdings (think again)! Instead, those remarks were pointed straight towards the sheer ridiculousness of today's Major League Baseball contracts. But regardless…I have to take my cap off to the CELSIUS marketing team for the perfect timing around leveraging a highly anticipated ephemeral moment within professional sports. This brand ambassador announcement easily jumps to one of the most creative I've ever seen within the energy drinks market.

What does a term initially used 170 years ago in one of the most influential and compelling books in American literature have to do with the cognitive health category? And what was the term that Henry David Thoreau used his 1854 non-fiction book Walden to criticize society's tendency to devalue complex ideas in favor of simple ones…seeing this as indicative of a general decline in mental and intellectual effort? Brain Rot. But that term has taken on new significance in the digital age, especially over the past year or two. Brain rot is a term used to describe the phenomenon involving a constant consumption of short, fast-paced content that can overwhelm the brain, leading to decreased attention spans, mental exhaustion, and a reduced ability to engage with deeper, more meaningful activities. Initially gaining traction on TikTok among Gen Z and Gen Alpha communities, brain rot became so widespread that Oxford University Press even named it the 2024 word of the year. But what if I told you that the term “brain rot” gaining mainstream prominence could prove extremely important in further expanding and evolving the cognitive health category? I believe brain rot moving into the mainstream lexicon could have the power to democratize the cognitive health category. And that's because “brain rot” doesn't age discriminate, or for that matter…discriminate based on ethnicity, gender, or any other characteristic. In fact, very rarely is anyone completely protected today against experiencing mental fatigue from social media information overload. Now in stating that…purchasing behavior doesn't necessarily change materially just because a societal problem has been catapulted into the minds of more consumers. And there's pros and cons to when a functional CPG category is democratized. But something that usually helps push that consumer awareness down funnel through consideration and into purchasing activity is having that category creating brand that unlocks massive commercial success by meeting consumers where they're at with the ideal product development variables…eventually triggering competition that further evolves the market. And while there's a multitude of competitors currently within the cognitive health category…it hasn't seen a Liquid I.V. or Vital Proteins type breakout brand that creates the category by pushing democratized consumer awareness down funnel unlocking massive commercial success. But in stating that…I also acknowledge this business phenomenon could occur in the near-term future from a strengthening sub-segment of the cognitive health category. And then finally, instead of providing you with a typical collection of “retail sales data trends” to validate what you already intuitively assume, that peak performers are more frequently seeking out “fast-acting cognitive-boosting” functional CPG products in convenient formats to improve their daily life, I wanted to end this content a bit differently by adding value through an anecdote surrounding my recent personal journey to minimize “brain rot.”

Did you know that about one in five U.S. children are obese…a number that's nearly four times the rate in the 1970s? So, what has changed in the last 50 years? The finger is usually pointed towards the proliferation of ultra-processed and/or hyperpalatable foods. Seeking to solve this growing problem…the FDA has been exploring a front-of-package nutrition labeling strategy that lists Saturated Fat, Sodium, and Sugar on every package with each nutrient being accompanied by a traffic light color system score box. But while these blatant warnings have never been required for food products sold in the United States, CPG brands selling into Mexico (and soon Canada) comply with different FOP nutrition labeling obligations. And I'd typically say a mandatory system would never happen…but RFK Jr. promising to "make America healthy again" by cleaning up the U.S. food system has me second guessing myself.

Can you name the health and wellness retailer that generates between four to five times more revenue selling categorical products online than the combined efforts of GNC and The Vitamin Shoppe? And here's a hint for you…it's not Amazon! Since the bulk of my audience is located within the United States, I'm going to assume that iHerb probably wasn't the first health and wellness online retailer that popped into your head. So, despite its massive multibillion-dollar success…iHerb isn't widely known in the U.S. market, mostly because the vast majority of its commercial activity happens internationally. But before blooming into a global powerhouse, iHerb began almost three decades ago as a Yahoo store selling St. John's Wort supplements online. And after the founder forgot to disable the international orders feature when the website launched, iHerb started getting orders from countries like South Korea. But rather than turning off the feature, iHerb decided to start fulfilling them. As sales started to grow, iHerb opened its first fulfillment center in 2002…marking the beginning of a strategic expansion that will soon include nine state-of-the-art logistics operations across the United States, Asia, and the Middle East. And because of its relentless focus on revolutionizing logistics solutions, iHerb can serve the health and wellness needs of customers located in 180 countries…maintaining an average global shipping time of less than five days and offering free shipping in 80 countries. Moreover, iHerb strives to create a localized shopping experience by translating its shopping platform into 22 languages and accepting more than 80 different currencies. Furthermore, iHerb has expanded its online marketplaces presence…reaching more consumers worldwide through 25 digital stores on platforms like Amazon, Tmall, Rakuten, and Coupang. But after a 22-year long journey, from selling a single supplement product to becoming a global leader in the health and wellness industry…iHerb surpassed $1 billion in annual sales. And while that was an enormous accomplishment, it only took iHerb six more years to reach $2 billion in annual sales. In fact, iHerb exceeded $2.4 billion in net sales last year…reflecting a YoY growth of 14.5%. And then for the final portion of my latest first principles thinking content, I'll briefly share my professional experience with iHerb, but more importantly provide a helpful geographical expansion strategic framework (that includes how to best leverage iHerb) for all my brand operators within the intersecting CPG categories of functional foods, functional beverages, and nutritional supplements.

Life can be A LOT like driving on an interstate highway. It's important to stay in your lane, only glance backwards if you're planning to make a change…and always watch out for David Beckham because he might swerve bend that corner woah! So, when it was officially announced in September 2021 that Prenetics (NASDAQ: PRE), a diagnostic and genetic testing company based in Hong Kong, was going public through a SPAC merger…I fully admit not even spending one iota of energy on the financial news headline. But I initially crossed paths with Prenetics last March when the company reached out to me regarding an upcoming strategic realignment that would focus on the U.S. consumer health market. And while I didn't sign an NDA…I'll keep the full extent of what I wrongfully assumed would be brief friendly surface-level introduction conversation confidential. Though, two major focuses of my strategic commentary did turn into public knowledge…David Beckham becoming a strategic investor of Prenetics (and co-founding a supplement brand called IM8 Health) and the acquisition of Europa Sports Partners. So, with more cash on the balance sheet (from selling a share of its Insighta joint venture to Tencent) and leadership recently confirming that going forward Prenetics would concentrate fully on the consumer health businesses it wholly owns and are scaling aggressively…my latest first principles thinking content will equally focus in-depth on the Europa Sports Partners and IM8 Health deal activity.

Dry January 2025 has commenced, but how measurable were effects on beer sales across grocery retailers? According to NielsenIQ sales data, non-alcoholic beer scored a record-high 4.2% share of all beer sold through grocery retailers in January. Moreover, non-alcoholic beer saw slightly more than 20 percent YoY volume growth last month…compared to the six percent YoY decline seen by the traditional beer category. Over the past three years, Dry January non-alcoholic beer sales across grocery retailers have grown 138%...with the marketplace doubling to over 150 brands selling non-alcoholic beers. But even with that heightened level of competition, the non-alcoholic beer category leader, Athletic Brewing has continued its dominance by again achieving Dry January top-seller status in 2025…successfully outselling non-alcoholic product variants from beer giants from Anheuser-Busch and Heineken.

It has been a decade since Eight Sleep became the world's first sleep fitness company…but I assure you it still retained some “magic in the moonlight” after all these years! But for those unfamiliar with Eight Sleep, it's a sleep technology company that focused on reimagining what a mattress can do by asking “what if it could help you sleep better, recover faster, and even improve your health?” Eight Sleep essentially started as a consumer hardware company, selling “high-end sleep systems” that are loved by top athletes, scientists, and billionaire tech leaders…but also everyday “high-performance lifestyle consumers” that can oftentimes purchase products not only “for what they do” but also “for what they mean.” But the Eight Sleep stated mission is to fuel human potential through optimal sleep…and fulfilling that ambitiously difficult mission means selling “high-end sleep systems” is only the initial step of a powerful flywheel strategy that eventually ends at it becoming a powerful predictive health platform. So, how can Eight Sleep achieve that flywheel strategy end-goal? its “high-end sleep systems” are packed with A LOT of health-grade sensors and attached to a central computer system with connectivity to its paid subscription app. And those “sleep system attributes” are what unlocks the next steps of that flywheel strategy. Since the Eight Sleep form factor is large (especially compared to other wrist or finger wearables), and user adherence is both absurdly high and longitudinal…the immense amount of data collected becomes even more powerfully insightful over time. Furthermore, Eight Sleep doesn't just want to track data…but use it to adjust conditions (and measure those outcomes for further improvements). And if the Eight Sleep system can facilitate heating and cooling actions (or base positioning changes) in real-time to create the ultimate personalized environment for deep, restorative sleep…it will acquire more customers, which will feed the algorithms with more data, and will generate more profits. So, what does the predictive health platform ambitions of Eight Sleep have to do with the emerging and intersecting CPG categories of functional foods, functional beverages, and nutritional supplements? Eight Sleep has decided to utilize a portion of that improved cash flow position to expand the product line…recently launching Sleep Elixir, a supplement formulated by analyzing the immense amount of data collected by its high-end sleep system. In a world of passive one-size-fits-all sleep solutions that usually include mattresses, pills, and wearables…Eight Sleep has injected its predictive health platform to actively improve sleep in a personalized way. So, this isn't just another supplement…it represents the first step in a new era of sleep solutions that evolves alongside a customer with the help of the Eight Sleep system, insights from sleep tracking data, and ongoing research (in collaboration with its scientific advisor Dr. Peter Attia). By combining tech-enabled consumer hardware with an ingestible functional CPG product, all tracked through its app, Eight Sleep is taking an integrated approach to redefining sleep fitness…one that will be improved across every modality as it collects more data and refines its understanding of individual sleep needs.

Keurig Dr Pepper (NASDAQ: KDP) basically went from getting its categorical ass whipped to being the most interesting energy drinks portfolio in just two short years by acquiring a large stake in Nutrabolt (owner of C4 Energy), strategically partnering with Black Rifle Coffee Company to distribute its new energy drink, acquiring GHOST Lifestyle, and adding Bloom Energy to its national DSD system. But what if KDP was making all these strategic moves to simply hedge against a growing risk on its multibillion-dollar U.S. coffee segment? KDP was recently charged by the SEC over making inaccurate statements within past earnings reports about the recyclability of K-Cups. And while the civil penalty levied was laughable, it highlights sustainability questions at a time when conscious consumerism is becoming more popular. If anything, maybe it's telling when the K-Cup inventor has publicly stated for years his regret over the negative environmental impact of those tiny plastic pods.

Trump is back…but should stakeholders operating within the intersecting CPG categories of functional foods, functional beverages, and nutritional supplements be cheerful about his return to the oval office? This will certainly not sound like a “hot take” or anything, but the second Trump presidential term will undoubtedly offer a mixture of risk and reward…ushering in a new era of market volatility. As press secretary Karoline Leavitt recently pointed out, "there has never been a president who communicates with the American people as openly and authentically as Donald Trump.” But while I personally enjoy that operating model…it does create an economic environment that I recently described to an industry colleague as “best suited for master sailors.” And that's because the art of both the sailor (and businessperson) is to leave nothing to chance…but sailors are artists whose medium is the wind and today's businesspeople must be artists whose medium is correctly spotting Donald Trump's subtle hints that reveal upcoming events. Furthermore, I believe a key to potentially benefitting from the Trump 2.0 “driver of demand” requires understanding how to position against a few of his known (but converging) “the art of the deal” tendencies. And these would be (1) a little hyperbole never hurts, (2) confirm an impression they were already predisposed to believe, (3) never get too attached to one deal or one approach, and (4) sometimes your best decisions are the ones you don't make. Finally, it's extremely important to consider rate of speed and level of efficiency surrounding Trump 2.0 changes. Since this is a “been here, done that” kind of thing, Trump won't fumble through the initial phase of his term he will have a better understanding around bottlenecks and getting around chokepoints…including how to flex unilateral powers. Also, given that the House and Senate are Republican majorities (at least for the next two years), that political trifecta usually creates efficiency and makes for stickier policy changes. But the inspiration behind my latest first principles thinking content piece (or I guess content miniseries) was a Trump 2.0 section titled “rhetoric foreshadowing action is greater than embellished negotiation tactics” that I included into many of functional CPG brand and supply side client presentations during the last quarter of 2024. And while each of those client presentations were packed with diverse personalized insights…I'm confident this “Trump 2.0” content miniseries, filled with a refined (and expanded) version of my generalized “base case” strategies, will be extremely valuable to my regular audience. And I figured part three of this Trump 2.0 content miniseries should be “financial" because he loves to use (especially the stock market) as measurement for his success and economic scoreboard overall. And I'd group the expected Trump 2.0 policy decisions to restore (and promote) American competitiveness into three buckets; cutting burdensome regulations, retaliatory tariffs, and providing financial incentives. But since I deeply covered the first two policy decision buckets within the previous Trump 2.0 content miniseries parts…I will focus on financial incentives like "America First" business tax cuts, but also interest rate dynamics, private financial markets (investing/fundraising), U.S. dollar index, stock market performance, and the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).

It was basically six years ago when I asked Glanbia to consider something completely foreign to their longstanding business culture, but today's the day my dreams became reality (well sort of)! Glanbia Performance Nutrition is one of two divisions of Glanbia plc (LON:GLB), a multibillion-dollar global nutrition company. The brands in the Glanbia Performance Nutrition portfolio include; Optimum Nutrition, BSN, think!, Isopure, Amazing Grass, and SlimFast. I'll use the recent earnings report, earnings call, and associated news to update you on how Glanbia Nutritionals and Glanbia Performance Nutrition is performing against the complex operating environment. Glanbia Performance Nutrition had full-year 2024 revenue of $1.81 billion, which increased 0.5% YoY. The brand portfolio had volume growth of 2.9%, but that was more than offset by price decline of 4.2% YoY. Additionally, I'll dive deeper into Glanbia Performance Nutrition geographical, sales channel, product format, and categorial performance (performance nutrition, healthy lifestyle, and weight management). Optimum Nutrition, which was the initial M&A transaction in 2008 that created the GPN division, now represents 66% of the total revenue. In 2024, Optimum Nutrition generated revenue of approximately $1.2 billion, which was up 7.5% YoY. Moreover, Optimum Nutrition is the number one sports nutrition brand in the world and also the top sports nutrition brand in close to 20 different countries. As part of its group-wide transformation program announced last November, that seeks to generate annual cost savings of at least $50m by 2027, leadership noted that a GPN portfolio review to ensure focus can be placed on high-growth opportunities had determined the divesture decision on its Netherlands-based direct-to-consumer ecommerce business, Body & Fit (that was acquired in 2017), and its weight management brand SlimFast (that was acquired for $350 million in 2018). And then in this final part of the content, I want to share some comments about how Glanbia intends to navigate the current volatility in the high-end whey market. Glanbia expects a $200 million transitory impact from this cycle of sharp commodity market inflation, which it plans to mitigate by pulling a variety of different front-facing and back-end levers. These include substantial price increases (that will trickle down to consumers later this year), shifts in price pack architecture, reformulation of products, and trade promotion efficiency (and pullback in overall marketing spend). Additionally, Glanbia leadership even noted that long-term investments in alternative protein sources are being considered (which maybe even includes a takeover of the embroiled precision fermentation startup Perfect Day that I suggested Glanbia acquire several years ago).

Did we just experience the defining moment within the better-for-you, functional lifestyle products movement? Celsius Holdings (NASDAQ: CELH) had quarterly revenue of $332.2 million, which was down 4% YoY. And while that now marks the second straight quarter of YoY revenues losses…sequential QoQ revenue activity increased sharply at 25%. According to Circana last 52-week data, CELSIUS accounted for 30.3% of all energy drink category growth YoY. In addition, Celsius sustained its market share of 11.8% and is securely the third-largest energy drink brand in the category. And I don't want gloss over this accomplishment…as CELSIUS became the first brand in over a decade not named Red Bull or Monster Energy that was able to capture more than a 10% share in the U.S. energy drinks market. Celsius energy drinks has seen massive growth in convenience stores, foodservice (e.g. fast food restaurants), mass retailers like Walmart, the club channel in retailers like Costco, and the Amazon marketplace. Additionally, the early international market development groundwork starting to formalize with CELSIUS extending its relationship with Suntory Beverage & Food and also the first major international market expansion under the PepsiCo umbrella (i.e. Canada). It's my opinion that international expansion presents significant opportunity for incremental growth over the next three to five years. With Celsius at basically full distribution now…the TDP growth will have to come from increased items carried per store. Going forward, Celsius will increase items per store through a combination of product strategies like flavor, format, pack size, and variant expansion. Additionally, CELISUS will continue scaling up the new Essentials lineup that has exceeded the company's expectations. Moreover, they will seek more store placements like leveraging cold display activity in Celsius-branded coolers. But the huge breaking news that accompanied this earnings report was CELSIUS entering into a definitive agreement to acquire Alani Nutrition for a net purchase price of $1.65 billion, comprising a mix of cash and stock. In 2024, Alani Nu became the fourth-largest U.S. energy drink brand…reaching more than $800 million in retail sales across tracked channels…growing an astonishing 63% YoY. Moreover, the combined brand platform of CELSIUS and Alani Nu energy drinks would be considered the fastest growing energy drink brand portfolio of the top 10 categorical competitors...generating slightly below $2 billion in revenue and more than $3.5 billion in tracked channel retail sales over the full-year 2024 period, and would have 16% category share (trailing only the Monster Energy combined brand platform and Red Bull). But I'll also analyze a collection of questions that have huge energy drinks market implications like why did CELSIUS acquire Alani Nu, is there cannibalization risk, will PepsiCo distribute Alani Nu now, CELSIUS product category expansion, and will this set off more market consolidation and another game of independent DSD musical chairs.

There's SO MANY business lessons from the “rise and fall” of Bang Energy, some of which are still emerging years later. In October 2022, I stated within my original bankruptcy content that “it's hard to separate Bang Energy the brand (and product) from its founder…which will arguably become its biggest Catch-22 challenge.” And that statement personifies the legal battle over the personal social media accounts of Jack Owoc. The court ruling stated that “ownership of accounts is based on the existence of documentation or the basis if an individual has exclusive control of the account. If unable to reach a conclusive determination on those criteria, the next question is what the account is used for.” So, it could establish a legal precedent for all CPG brand founders to prioritize ownership of accounts in documentation (or risk losing them during a breakup). FOLLOW ME ON MY SOCIAL MEDIA ACCOUNTS ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠LINKEDIN⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠YOUTUBE⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠TWITTER⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠INSTAGRAM⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠FACEBOOK⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Applied Nutrition might be growing above its previous IPO expectations, but can the company derive enough freshness from strategic partnerships to generate the type of consistent returns needed to win the hearts of external market stakeholders? Applied Nutrition Plc (LSE: APN) is a leading sports nutrition, health and wellness brand, which formulates and creates nutrition products targeted at a wide range of consumers and sold in over 80 countries worldwide. There are several product ranges under the Applied Nutrition Group, including the namesake Applied Nutrition, All Black Everything (ABE), Body Fuel, and Endurance. Additionally, because of a trademark issue, the U.S. division sells its products under the AN Supps company name. Over the first six months of fiscal 2025, Applied Nutrition reported generating revenue just shy of $60 million, which I believe would be an increase of around 19% YoY. It was also noted in the statement that the adjusted EBITDA margin was in line with expectations. And while no actual numbers were provided, we can assume an adjusted EDITDA margin around the company's historical average of about 29%. But I'll use that last point around strong net profitability as my transition towards analyzing the “significant progress towards its growth strategy” delivered by Applied Nutrition recently...and that starts with an existing capital allocation pattern reinvested profits back into the company's manufacturing capabilities and operational facilities. From previous financial documents, we know that about 80% of all Applied Nutrition products are self-manufactured, which allows the company to quickly evolve its product strategy to access emerging trends and fill opportunity gaps across the marketplace (positively impacting growth of distribution points and shelf space with existing and new customers). But that vertical integration element can also be leveraged by Applied Nutrition for geographical expansion…with about 60% of its total revenue currently being captured from commercial activities outside its home market of the UK. But arguably the most important geographical expansion progress has been happening within the United States. And the most notable news would be the launch of “AN Performance” products across The Vitamin Shoppe stores nationwide. Additionally, and this is partly in reference to that “freshness” introductory comment, but the company partnered with global fruit brand Chiquita to launch “officially licensed flavors” of several AN Performance products. And while I'm just a single peanut in the gallery of many…I've tried each of those AN Performance Chiquita products and I'd rate them very high in terms of flavor matching, flavor likeability, and formulation approach. Now…does that mean anything? I've certainly (let's call it “knighted” because of the company's British roots) many of the functional CPG products well before they went on to outsized mainstream commercial success, but most of my early conviction built around certain new products is directly tied to the “freshness” (aka appealing distinctiveness) of its brand strategy. So, while having those great (glocalized) Applied Nutrition products is a foundational element to unlocking any chance of U.S. marketplace success…I'll breakdown why I'm still hesitant to make louder and more confident declarations on the company's long-term success within the U.S. market.

When JD Vance used “drinking Diet Mountain Dew” to joke about how liberals are too easily offended and quick to point out what they perceive to be racist behavior, the large campaign event crowd barely applauded. But it wasn't because JD Vance is weird (and clearly not a comedian), the joke went straight over the head of mostly everyone because it was packed with multilayered symbolism. Regardless, it got me thinking about how politics and consumer packaged goods oftentimes get mixed together knowingly (and unknowingly). As an example, did you know conservatives prefer drinking A&W Root Beer compared to liberals with LaCroix? Or that liberals are more likely to eat plant-based meat and conservatives prefer sausage and hot dogs? What do both political parties agree on…that advertisements are a waste of their time!

Trump is back…but should stakeholders operating within the intersecting CPG categories of functional foods, functional beverages, and nutritional supplements be cheerful about his return to the oval office? This will certainly not sound like a “hot take” or anything, but the second Trump presidential term will undoubtedly offer a mixture of risk and reward…ushering in a new era of market volatility. As press secretary Karoline Leavitt recently pointed out, "there has never been a president who communicates with the American people as openly and authentically as Donald Trump.” But while I personally enjoy that operating model…it does create an economic environment that I recently described to an industry colleague as “best suited for master sailors.” And that's because the art of both the sailor (and businessperson) is to leave nothing to chance…but sailors are artists whose medium is the wind and today's businesspeople must be artists whose medium is correctly spotting Donald Trump's subtle hints that reveal upcoming events. Furthermore, I believe a key to potentially benefitting from the Trump 2.0 “driver of demand” requires understanding how to position against a few of his known (but converging) “the art of the deal” tendencies. And these would be (1) a little hyperbole never hurts, (2) confirm an impression they were already predisposed to believe, (3) never get too attached to one deal or one approach, and (4) sometimes your best decisions are the ones you don't make. Finally, it's extremely important to consider rate of speed and level of efficiency surrounding Trump 2.0 changes. Since this is a “been here, done that” kind of thing, Trump won't fumble through the initial phase of his term he will have a better understanding around bottlenecks and getting around chokepoints…including how to flex unilateral powers. Also, given that the House and Senate are Republican majorities (at least for the next two years), that political trifecta usually creates efficiency and makes for stickier policy changes. But the inspiration behind my latest first principles thinking content piece (or I guess content miniseries) was a Trump 2.0 section titled “rhetoric foreshadowing action is greater than embellished negotiation tactics” that I included into many of functional CPG brand and supply side client presentations during the last quarter of 2024. And while each of those client presentations were packed with diverse personalized insights…I'm confident this “Trump 2.0” content miniseries, filled with a refined (and expanded) version of my generalized “base case” strategies, will be extremely valuable to my regular audience. So, just to set the stage…you can expect this “Trump 2.0” content miniseries to initially include four loosely titled parts; regulatory, global trade, financial, and commerce. And I figured part two of this Trump 2.0 content miniseries should be “global trade" because he made imposing tariffs central to his economic program. Moreover, with most functional CPG inputs (whether various ingredients or raw materials) coming from countries of origin outside the United States (and China having near monopolies currently on many portions of those inputs), these tariffs can materially affect two key elements (pricing and overall supply stability). And that means industry stakeholders don't share the same overwhelming level of optimism (and excitement) they've expressed surrounding Trump's health agency selections.

Trump is back…but should stakeholders operating within the intersecting CPG categories of functional foods, functional beverages, and nutritional supplements be cheerful about his return to the oval office? This will certainly not sound like a “hot take” or anything, but the second Trump presidential term will undoubtedly offer a mixture of risk and reward…ushering in a new era of market volatility. As press secretary Karoline Leavitt recently pointed out, "there has never been a president who communicates with the American people as openly and authentically as Donald Trump.” But while I personally enjoy that operating model…it does create an economic environment that I recently described to an industry colleague as “best suited for master sailors.” And that's because the art of both the sailor (and businessperson) is to leave nothing to chance…but sailors are artists whose medium is the wind and today's businesspeople must be artists whose medium is correctly spotting Donald Trump's subtle hints that reveal upcoming events. Furthermore, I believe a key to potentially benefitting from the Trump 2.0 “driver of demand” requires understanding how to position against a few of his known (but converging) “the art of the deal” tendencies. And these would be (1) a little hyperbole never hurts, (2) confirm an impression they were already predisposed to believe, (3) never get too attached to one deal or one approach, and (4) sometimes your best decisions are the ones you don't make. Finally, it's extremely important to consider rate of speed and level of efficiency surrounding Trump 2.0 changes. Since this is a “been here, done that” kind of thing, Trump won't fumble through the initial phase of his term he will have a better understanding around bottlenecks and getting around chokepoints…including how to flex unilateral powers. Also, given that the House and Senate are Republican majorities (at least for the next two years), that political trifecta usually creates efficiency and makes for stickier policy changes. But the inspiration behind my latest first principles thinking content piece (or I guess content miniseries) was a Trump 2.0 section titled “rhetoric foreshadowing action is greater than embellished negotiation tactics” that I included into many of functional CPG brand and supply side client presentations during the last quarter of 2024. And while each of those client presentations were packed with diverse personalized insights…I'm confident this “Trump 2.0” content miniseries, filled with a refined (and expanded) version of my generalized “base case” strategies, will be extremely valuable to my regular audience. So, just to set the stage…you can expect this “Trump 2.0” content miniseries to initially include four loosely titled parts; regulatory, global trade, financial, and commerce. And I figured part one of this Trump 2.0 content miniseries should be “regulatory,” mostly because there's arguably no more impactful leadership change to functional CPG stakeholders than with the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) cabinet position. And while I'll tackle several other regulatory agencies in this part, such as the Federal Trade Commission (FTC), Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), the primary focus will be on potential effects from changes within the HHS health agencies (i.e. FDA) made by Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.) and his Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) principles.

Have you seen the prices of whey protein isolate lately? Explaining the multitude of factors causing record high commodity inflation would take longer than the allowable video length, but maybe I have a better solution for our current broken food system. Plantible uses proprietary technology to grow duckweed on aqua farms in West Texas that's efficiently extracted into a complete protein called “Rubi Protein.” According to the food technology startup, Rubi Protein has diverse functional CPG applications because it has high solubility, moisture retention, fat binding capacity, and outperforms egg whites in both foam capacity and stability. If only I knew earlier that saving money on protein shakes was as easy as jumping into the small lake behind my home (and consuming all those small flowering aquatic plants). Moreover, it was just announced that through its corporate venture capital arm Cultivate Next, the fast-casual chain Chipotle Mexican Grill has made a minority investment in Plantible. So, are aquatic plants the next hot ingredient in the plant-based space? Chipotle seems to think so...

If there was a Super Bowl for convenient nutrition brands…Premier Protein would be considered the Kansas City Chiefs of the functional CPG category. BellRing Brands (NYSE: BRBR) is a portfolio that owns a collection of convenient nutrition brands like Premier Protein and Dymatize Nutrition, which was previously wholly-owned by Post Holdings. A fast-paced and busy lifestyle is pushing consumers to switch to quick and healthy meal options. This has resulted in above average categorical growth rates and increased household penetration of RTD protein shakes that promote active lifestyles. Additionally, powders are becoming more mainstream, and category proliferation has created an environment where more consumers are purchasing both every day and performance nutrition positioned protein products at grocery stores and mass retailers. Bellring Brands had a strong 2025 Q1 with net sales reaching $532.9 million, which was up 23.8% YoY. Premier Protein (~90% of BellRing Brands total revenue) grew 26.3% YoY, which came from mostly volume increases. Dymatize Nutrition was up 12.6% YoY, stemming from volume increases within international markets. In response to these elevated sports nutrition competitive threats, BellRing Brands has attempted to invest further into Dymatize brand marketing (i.e. utilization with NFL star running back Christian McCaffrey) and restarting product innovation (i.e. pre-workout energy powder and RTD protein beverages leveraging Pebbles cereal). Moreover, I provide three deep dives into the functional CPG portfolio's "hero SKU families" of Premier Protein RTD protein shakes and Premier Protein and Dymatize protein powders. But my latest first principles thinking content will explain my usage of that specific NFL analogy in the introductory statement. And while the most obvious connection would be that BellRing Brands corporate headquarters is located within St. Louis, Missouri (and the Rams relocating almost a decade ago it makes the Kansas City Chiefs the “local team"), a more hidden connection would be that both brands have dominated their respective “sports” of late…and much like the Kansas City Chiefs are attempting to win their third Super Bowl in a row, BellRing Brands (because of primarily Premier Protein) is hoping to reach its own version of a three-peat. And if analyzing the trailing twelve months BellRing Brands net sales activity, the brand portfolio has now successfully reached the $2 billion milestone (and is well on its way to reaching $3 billion in net sales). So, why do I believe the Premier Protein “three-peat” is almost guaranteed at this point?