the Joshua Schall Audio Experience

Show me the incentive…and I'll show you the outcome! So, based on the timing…you might assume that introductory statement indicates something about how $7 billion in new private equity financing would sweeten the Keurig Dr Pepper business spilt, support the JDE Peet's deal, or maybe even feed off an activist investor. Though, it's important to recall I'm not an equity analyst or KDP individual investor, which means I admittedly wasn't super concerned about certain negative consequences of the transaction…or how using a tax-free Reverse Morris Trust would've been more favorable to shareholders compared to the agreed upon structure ultimately benefitting JAB Holding Company. And while I obviously understand “an elevated debt load” is interconnected (and influential) to the “North Star” transformation work required to establish two strong, successful companies…I intentionally looked past capitalization strategies and will do so again this content piece. Instead, I'll draw upon my last 15+ years of deep domain expertise…being prominently positioned within the emerging and intersecting CPG categories of food, beverages, and dietary supplements, to uncover a critical misalignment that could cause major long-term KDP “Beverage Co.” concerns. As mentioned within its recent Investor Day presentation, KDP wants to establish growth platforms in large and attractive categories. Since “energy” is the fastest growing $10B+ liquid refreshment beverage category…it's obviously the most important inside KDP. And we're going to focus exclusively on dynamics between Nutrabolt and GHOST that I originally brought up in October 2024 when KDP announced it was acquiring GHOST Lifestyle. But maybe within that content piece (or at least shortly after), I expressed my belief that KDP would eventually seek corrective measures…most likely fixing any potential incentive misalignment through further investment in Nutrabolt. However, since last year's KDP and GHOST deal announcement…A LOT has happened from Bloom Sparkling Energy drinks becoming a categorical superstar and (as a result) Nutrabolt acquiring majority stake in Bloom Nutrition to the beforementioned complicated KDP business separation plans. And there's another interesting tidbit popping up but (either way) change at this level predictably raised questions recently from you guys (and beverage industry trade publications) asking if I had an evolved theory surrounding how KDP might design a new system where Nutrabolt and GHOST have aligned incentives. And since I wouldn't expect any substantial "Beverage Co." investment activity until the KDP and JDE Peet's transaction is complete (and subsequent separation event occurs), I'll discuss if Nutrabolt should be strategically “patient” or “aggressive” as the “future optionality” window opens after KDP “Beverage Co.” matures independently. But despite obvious competitive similarities, this shouldn't be interpreted as some kind of “GHOST versus Nutrabolt” content piece, as each company is defining their future through different strategic vectors. Instead, I hope you recognized the “hidden risk” regarding how Big CPG continues to reshape its portfolio architecture. Today, Big CPG wants an increasingly larger amount of exposure to this four-way intersection of taste, convenience, nutrition, and functionality. We are currently at the stage where Big CPG portfolios acquire (or partner with) multiple sports nutrition competitors across growth platforms…and could create the type of challenges outlined within this content piece.

The time is now QUEST Nutrition…or risk getting cooked! In this latest episode, I'll utilize the Q4 2025 Simply Good Foods Company (NASDAQ: SMPL) financial statements, earnings call, and supplemental presentations for my expanded strategic commentary around convenient nutrition market dynamics and trends. In fiscal Q4 2025, Atkins Nutritionals brand dragged down the overall portfolio performance, but Quest Nutrition (up 11% YoY) and OWYN (up 14% YoY) beat categorical competitors in tracked and untracked combined channel retail takeaway. What's at the heart of the Quest Nutrition success? Quest Nutrition is still known for the original Quest Bar. And that means the company needs the bar business to be healthy for any of this innovation risk to make sense. But Quest Nutrition has proven it's one of the few brands that can successfully extend across multiple product forms...and its customer base expects them to come into an indulgent snacking category and flip it into great tasting (high protein, low sugar) offerings. The snacks segment of Quest Nutrition, which now accounts for half of all retail sales...and if we analyze one layer deeper, the salty side of the Quest snacks segment had quarterly retail takeaway growth of about 31%. And after representing only 20% of the total Quest Nutrition retail sales three years ago, “salty snacks” is on target to become the largest product platform by the end of fiscal year 2026. Yet, Quest Nutrition is arguably only scratching the surface of this multibillion-dollar (Simply Good Foods redefining) level of opportunity! BUT…and there's always a “but” which is the emerging competition from notable large “salty snacks” brand portfolios like PepsiCo (Frito Lay) that just announced the protein-ification of its expansive packaged food and beverages product portfolio, don't instantly think it's “game over” for Quest Nutrition. It does (in fact) bring a slew of challenges…but also increases the overall “salty snacks” opportunity for Quest Nutrition. Also, I examine what's causing the weak brand performance at Atkins and explain which actions the company is taking to change it. The most difficult task has been flipping the historical Atkins brand messaging from this negative “restriction diet” emphasis to its nutritional snacking products being viewed as a more positive, proactive convenient foundational nutrition focus. Moreover, Atkins must contend with dramatically changing behavior in the “weight management” consumer cohort (a major cause of this change has been the rise of GLP-1 weight loss pharmaceuticals). And then, OWYN retail takeaway growth came from a balance of distribution gains and velocity growth. Moreover, OWYN has significantly accelerated performance across all major sales channels (including ecommerce) and all key retail customers. Finally, I'll explore how Quest Nutrition should combat this defensive move by Big CPG, as what got them to the first billion in retail sales…won't get them to the next multibillion-dollar goal.

Canadians are really upset at President Trump…maybe because of escalating trade tensions or his “Canada should become the 51st state” rhetoric. But either way, with the new Prime Minister of Canada winning his recent election utilizing an "elbows up" slogan, which is a defensive hockey term signaling you're ready to protect and fight back…it most likely didn't help temper emotions. Regardless, it has ignited a new wave of Canadian patriotism…with consumers consciously choosing made-in-Canada products as an act of economic self-preservation and national pride. In fact, 71 percent of Canadians stated they will be buying fewer US-produced grocery items this year…with nearly one-quarter planning to make this purchasing behavior permanent. Additionally, 56 percent of Canadians expressed they'd stop buying a certain product altogether if there wasn't a Canadian-made alternative. So, while “buy local” movements usually prove transitory after economic tensions subside, US-based CPG brands shouldn't overlook worst-case scenarios…as this current surge in modified shopping behaviors could have comparatively deeper roots than historical examples.

The butterfly effect is crazy because what if soda companies never successfully used the “flavor enhancer” argument with the FDA almost a half-century ago...the almost $26 billion U.S. energy drinks market likely wouldn't exist today! Though, before we get into that FDA decision from 1980, you must first understand that the original recipes of both Coca-Cola and Pepsi included kola nuts, which contained caffeine but also provided a distinctive bitter flavor. Eventually, largely due to concerns about cost and product consistency…the “cola” flavor we recognize today is not the taste of the kola nut itself. Instead, it's a complex blend of multiple ingredients (including a standardized, isolated form of caffeine). So, with that industry shift in product and supply chain strategy, it no longer mattered if you were a cola beverage or a citrus-flavored soda like Mountain Dew…caffeine became a food additive. And that means…when the Tip Corporation acquired Mountain Dew from its founders in 1960, its decision to revamp the recipe (adding more caffeine than the typical cola) wasn't just paramount to the beverage's success but also to our butterfly effect. But throughout the 1970s, health concerns surrounding caffeine intensified…and by 1980, consumer advocacy groups started petitioning the FDA to remove caffeine from its "generally recognized as safe" (GRAS) food additives list. But in response to the FDA questioning the GRAS status of caffeine, packaged beverage manufacurers argued that they used the ingredient as a "flavor enhancer," not for its stimulant effects. Though, in the fall of 1980, the FDA proposed that caffeine be removed from the "Generally Recognized as Safe" (GRAS) list but stopped short of banning it, citing the need for further safety tests. Instead, the FDA made caffeine an interim food additive…and in the meantime, placed a limit on the amount that could be added to carbonated soft drinks. This decision was widely criticized by consumer advocacy groups, who proclaimed the FDA caved to the powerful beverage industry. But maybe even more infuriating, the FDA proposal to remove caffeine from the GRAS list (essentially reclassifying caffeine as a drug), which would have obviously put significant restrictions on its use in foods and beverages, was never finalized. But the ensuing regulatory uncertainty created a new pathway for beverages with high caffeine levels to enter the market under a different category. Under the 1994 Dietary Supplement Health and Education Act (DSHEA), ingredients like caffeine were presumed safe for use in dietary supplements unless the FDA could prove otherwise. This created basically a dual regulatory system where the same ingredient (caffeine) was treated differently depending on the product classification…allowing dietary supplement companies to develop and market “drinks” with much higher caffeine levels. And it resulted in the development of an entirely new beverage category, with modern energy drinks like Red Bull entering the U.S. market about three decades ago. This butterfly effect was crazy, right? If soda companies never successfully used the “flavor enhancer” argument with the FDA in 1980, today's U.S. energy drinks market wouldn't be $26 billion dollars in retail sales. Moreover, energy drinks would not have become status symbols…or basically aspirational mixtures, representing lifestyle taste and identity by association, making it arguably the most important beverage category.

MyProtein might be readying itself for a licensing mission “to [MARS], and beyond,” but don't let that “mission” overshadow your appreciation for its more terrestrial growth strategies currently. THG (aka the company formerly known as The Hut Group) recently updated the public markets by releasing its trading statement for the third quarter of 2025. I'll be utilizing that financial information, along with notes I took listening to the earnings conference call, and any relevant publicly disclosed information to obviously update you on the recent performance of THG Nutrition division, which includes the world's largest online sports nutrition brand MyProtein, but also utilize everything as the contextual backdrop for my expanded strategic commentary around global sports nutrition market dynamics and trends. Additionally, for those unfamiliar with the up-to-date THG portfolio configuration…due to the THG Ingenuity demerger action occurring at the end of 2024, it now would be described as a global, cash generative, health and wellness consumer brands group. During the third quarter of 2025, THG Nutrition revenue was approximately $197 million, which increased 10% YoY. And while THG leadership asserted the third quarter of 2025 had the highest organic growth rate in several years (and commercial momentum broad-based across categories outside of the core protein range, most notably continuing in activewear and vitamins), I wouldn't necessarily be jumping for joy, as performance still lagged reported THG Nutrition revenue dollars from each of the third quarters from prior years going back to 2020. But I'll dive into several strategic decisions impacting MyProtein including its global digital sales channel strategy, offline retail expansion efforts, product licensing strategy, and let's just say A LOT is riding on the success of the MyProtein global rebrand. But basically two years after the start of its initial staggered market rollout, the transitionary impacts from the rebrand are now behind Myprotein. THG leadership reaffirmed that customer feedback continues to be promising, with unaided brand recognition for MyProtein now at its highest level to date. More importantly though…THG Nutrition leadership needs to continue paying close attention to key commercial metrics, as it seeks to continue moving upstream in positioning, thus unlocking sales channel diversification opportunities. THG must ensure the rebrand decision is well received by (and generates) brand affinity with those less price-sensitive customers. THG leadership (again) mentioned “a number of soon-to-be-announced exciting new partnerships,” which we know from last quarter will include a global confectionery leader launching in the fourth quarter (holiday period). However, what we don't know yet is if my previous Mars, Incorporated prediction is correct…even though I've gained further conviction over the recent few weeks. Though, I'll shine more light on a few other licensing partnerships and again recap the impacts from THG selling Claremont Ingredients to Nactarome Group.

I'm not going to lie…there's been some weirdly interesting new players getting into the consumer packaged goods “game” lately! Several years ago, Netflix launched a “Stranger Things themed” frozen pizza…and more recently merged content with commerce by partnering with Meghan Markle on her “As Ever” CPG brand. Then, a few weeks ago…Pinterest partnered with Chamberlain Coffee to launch the first co-branded global product in its 15-year history. A longtime fan of the platform, Emma Chamberlain has credited Pinterest as a massive inspiration and tool for building Chamberlain Coffee. And maybe for the oddest new entrant, Tinder created “RelationChips” as a way to dispel the misconception that it's solely a hookup app. So, what do potato chips and Tinder have to do with one another? Apparently, a new relationship starts on Tinder every three seconds…which is the same time it takes to eat a potato chip. Over the last 13 years, I've pitched countless clients some thought-provoking “playfulness with purpose” ideas…but this one even got me thinking WTF.

When you think about PepsiCo…your brain either beelines to carbonated soft drinks and their flagship Pepsi brand or packaged foods and their significant market share across salty snack categories. But how about what I like to call the “three-headed categorical monster” of active nutrition? Or maybe it's time to expand my phrase slightly…especially after PepsiCo CEO stated last week within its third quarter earnings call that “fiber will be the next protein.” However, while PepsiCo leadership now talks wildly about “elevating its innovation agenda with core brands by capturing new occasions through added functional benefits,” categorical offerings outside hydration (so energy, protein, and fiber) were mostly strategic afterthoughts only a handful of years ago. Though, if your primary indicator for strategic change was looking for broad-based portfolio product innovation, you'd likely believe PepsiCo leadership was “all talk” in 2022 when expressing "optimism about the runway for growth within the active nutrition category." Outside of Gatorade deepening its “fuel solutions” for athletes and simultaneously broadening into more active lifestyles…PepsiCo could've just looked like another Big CPG player plagued with a mix of poor portfolio management, missed opportunities, and persistent share loss. In fact, you'd only understand where it was heading due to PepsiCo leadership leaving breadcrumb after breadcrumb throughout quarterly earnings statements and investment conference presentations regarding how the $200 billion market cap sized CPG conglomerate would transform its products to better reach shifting consumer preferences…as more moved closer towards this four-way intersection of taste, convenience, nutrition, and functionality. However, heading into 2025…when the business landscape seemed cloudier than ever, as massive “drivers of demand” like GLP-1 weight loss second-order effects became more pronounced and the MAHA movement gained political power, PepsiCo appeared to build further conviction surrounding its long-awaited strategic game plan. Suddenly, all those “nice if possible” innovation cycles focused on reimagining products quickly turned into a cascade of “must have” strategic actions. But my latest first principles thinking content will explore (through the lens of hydration, energy, protein, and fiber) why I believe PepsiCo contains one of the most fascinating “active nutrition” brand portfolios. And while PepsiCo is also making huge “nutrition” adjustments across its entire portfolio, I'll only sporadically mention the most relevant changes that are adjacent or congruent to adding “functionality” in products. I'll cover subject matter that ranges from Muscle Milk and Gatorade MAHA changes, the recent energy drinks deal that involved PepsiCo, CELSIUS, Alani Nu, and Rockstar Energy...along with how more grams of protein seem to be making its way into anything and everything that's quick, easy, and accessible (including Doritos, Quaker, Sun Chips, PopCorners, and Smartfood products). Also, I'll cover the two massive decisions (Poppi acquisition and Pepsi Prebiotic) that really showed how serious PepsiCo is about the “fiber will be the next protein” CEO statement. Lastly, PepsiCo is a world-class company with iconic brands, and its willingness to reinvent those brands (against the backdrop of shifting consumer habits and preferences) is venerable. If PepsiCo keeps this “disrupt ourselves” mindset going…I believe it's well-positioned to continue winning in this important “active nutrition” space.

Over the past several days, famous YouTube creators like Casey Neistat and MrBeast used words like “frightening” or “scary” to describe the various implications surrounding the new artificial intelligence (AI) video creation app Sora that quickly rose to the top of the U.S. Apple App Store charts. And although these popular YouTubers (influencers) are mostly concerned about how the platform generating massive amounts of "AI slop" will impact parts of the creator economy. Though, there's many similar “terrifying” implications surrounding how this type of generative AI technology could speed up product proliferation that the CPG industry hasn't fully considered yet. Also, since we're still in the very early innings of the AI industrial revolution, and the current median age of U.S. governmental lawmakers is one of the oldest Congressional groups in history (which have proven through public hearings they can barely understand early web 2.0 concepts let alone the next generation of the internet), it largely implies that the private sector will have ample space to “move fast and break things.” And in the case of these newest AI technologies (created by massive technology companies), they're currently deep in human behavior research mode…testing various “attention at all costs” theories. But most industry professionals would agree that it has never been easier than right now to launch a CPG product. Often driven by the rapid emergence of digital technologies (and democratized advanced contract manufacturing techniques), smaller companies can develop and launch CPG products with less money, reduced expertise, smaller teams, and increased speed. And these constant lowering barriers-to-entry across the CPG industry have substantially grown the overall number of products launched annually. But over the last decade, I've thoroughly documented the “Catch-22” nature of the “Endless Aisle Age.” The sheer volume of new CPG products entering the market does provide optionality (especially for niche consumer demand), but it also potentially saturates the market with low-quality or unnecessary items. In that regard, it's important to remember there's a fairly limited total categorical (and/or format) spend each day…and if there's more supply of CPG products vying for that relatively static amount of demand, competition intensifies. And that's largely why even within niche categories…it has become increasingly difficult for truly innovative (and valuable) CPG products to stand out and succeed.But here's maybe the most “terrifying” part…even though the CPG industry has recently shifted seemingly overnight from cautious experimentation to full-scale adoption of generative AI, it hasn't augmented product creation to the same/similar level as what I detailed earlier surrounding content creation (at least yet). What happens when all you need to do is type a few words into your phone from your bed in a dark room, click a button…and it gives you a priced manufacturable CPG product, and then it's essentially ready for sale? And you do that 1000 times a day, every day! The larger financial aspect involving “CPG AI slop” might help challenge the idea that a capability to create automatically implies a moral imperative to do so, but as those cost barriers diminish further…the future probability of “CPG AI slop” pervasiveness becomes more worrisome. But even without this “AI slop” threat being real currently, CPG companies are already struggling to compete for “share of attention” with algorithm hacking higher-reach, lower-quality goods.

We have a regulatory agency under the Department of the Interior that handles the conservation of federal land for all the tree-huggers. And there's another regulatory agency under that same government department designating nationally significant historic landmarks for all the history buffs. But what about a national list of culturally significant business properties for all of us business nerds? As an example, how sad is it that PepsiCo announced snack production would stop at its Frito-Lay production facility in Rancho Cucamonga (California) after more than 50 years in operation? And if you're scratching your head…wondering the significance of this production facility, it's probably because you didn't watch the feature-length directorial debut of Eva Longoria from 2023. This is the site where Flamin' Hot Cheetos were invented (supposedly), thus creating the CPG industry version of “Good Will Hunting.”

When hear the term bootlegging, what jumps into your mind? Maybe names like Al Capone, Bill McCoy, “Lucky” Luciano, and George Remus…that were famously associated with the Prohibition era. Or maybe you think about the role moonshine played in American History. But what about the infamous 5-Hour Energy bootlegging case from a decade ago? Oh…you hadn't heard of arguably the craziest crime story involving the energy drinks market before just now? From late-2009 until supposedly October 2012, an 11-person operation…led by a husband-and-wife team, placed into interstate commerce nearly 4 million bottles of counterfeit 5-Hour Energy. Accused initially of relabeling Mexican bottles of 5-Hour Energy and reselling them in the U.S. market, it was later discovered that blank bottles were filled with unknown liquids after authentic 5-Hour Energy inventory became unavailable. But adding even more craziness to this story, President Trump commuted the wife's sentence in early 2021…and one of the original perpetrators was just extradited from Italy after being a fugitive since the initial arrests.

Strategic licensing has been a major growth unlock for MyProtein, but hints of an upcoming partnership could take “the world's largest online sports nutrition brand” to a whole other level! THG (aka the company formerly known as The Hut Group) recently updated the public markets by releasing its 2025 H1 interim results. I'll be utilizing that financial information, along with notes I took listening to the earnings conference call, and any relevant publicly disclosed information to obviously update you on the recent performance of THG Nutrition division, which includes the world's largest online sports nutrition brand MyProtein, but also utilize everything as the contextual backdrop for my expanded strategic commentary around global sports nutrition market dynamics and trends. Additionally, for those unfamiliar with the up-to-date THG portfolio configuration…due to the THG Ingenuity demerger action occurring at the end of 2024, it now would be described as a global, cash generative, health and wellness consumer brands group. During the first half of 2025, THG Nutrition revenue was approximately $409 million, which increased 3.1% YoY. And while those aren't necessarily blowout caliber results…THG leadership noted the second quarter had the strongest growth since the first quarter of 2022. Moreover, momentum was said to be broad-based across categories outside of the core protein range, especially in activewear, vitamins, bars, and snacks. But I'll dive into several strategic decisions impacting MyProtein including its global digital sales channel strategy, offline retail expansion efforts, product licensing strategy, and let's just say A LOT is riding on the success of the MyProtein global rebrand. But basically two years after the start of its initial staggered market rollout, the transitionary impacts from the rebrand are now behind Myprotein. THG leadership reaffirmed that customer feedback continues to be promising, with unaided brand recognition for MyProtein now at its highest level to date. More importantly though…THG Nutrition leadership needs to continue paying close attention to key commercial metrics, as it seeks to continue moving upstream in positioning, thus unlocking sales channel diversification opportunities. THG must ensure the rebrand decision is well received by (and generates) brand affinity with those less price-sensitive customers. Additionally, THG leadership hinted at a two-way product partnership with a currently unnamed global confectionery leader launching in the fourth quarter (holiday period). Could it be Ferrero Group or even Mondelez International (after the licensing breakup with GHOST Lifestyle)? But I honestly think the biggest potential win-win partnership would be with Mars, Incorporated. Finally, after the first half of 2025 period ended, THG announced the sale of Claremont Ingredients to Nactarome Group. The flavor company has been a long-standing supplier to Europe's leading nutrition brands, and the deal represents a significant ROI for THG…selling Claremont Ingredients for more than double its initial acquisition price (less than five years later).

Heroes get remembered, but legendary stories involving Anheuser-Busch and Major League Baseball never die. During an era where Coors Field exists in Denver, Colorado…the 1950s story involving August “Gussie” Busch Jr., Anheuser-Busch beer brands, and Major League Baseball almost doesn't feel real. Less than two months after buying the St. Louis Cardinals in 1953, August “Gussie” Busch Jr. announced that the Anheuser-Busch brewery had also purchased Sportsman's Park…and intended to rename it Budweiser Stadium. This was a bigtime (and certainly ahead of its time) strategic marketing decision, as Anheuser-Busch (which was founded by his grandfather) wouldn't become the largest brewer in the United States until 1957. So then, why has the St. Louis Cardinals stadium been known as Busch Stadium and not Budweiser Stadium for the last 70+ years? Well…before the day ended, Gussie revised his Sportsman's Park announcement, and the ballpark would actually be known as Busch Stadium “in memory of the founder and past presidents of Anheuser-Busch.” But what happened that day has long been an object of speculation. And while Ford Frick (the MLB commissioner from 1951 to 1965) supposedly only knew of Gussie Busch's original “Budweiser Stadium” announcement just before it happened and made no public comment on that day…the press generally gave credit to Ford Frick for the wild day of stadium naming announcements. Why? Back in the 1950s, baseball was rapidly commercializing, and purists of America's pastime largely opposed corporate ownership. Additionally, while beer has been a quintessential part of the ballpark experience for more than a century, not every stakeholder liked that baseball and beer got cemented together permanently after the Busch family purchased the St. Louis Cardinals. It's not known if he ever spoke directly to Gussie Busch on the matter that day, but credit was most likely given due to it being widely known that Ford Frick spending considerable time persuading Busch to set up a new corporate entity to govern the sports franchise…essentially acting as a buffer from the appearance of direct corporate control. And with Busch announcing the stadium would be named after the brewery's most popular product, it undermined all that hard work by Ford Frick (and likely revealed the limits of his reserved temperament). But here's where you get to really learn about the temperament of the other party involved…as Gussie Busch was strong-willed and known to have a vindictive streak. But the lore surrounding that day (has been passed down generations), as the feud with MLB Commissioner Ford Frick triggered ideation for the creation of Busch Lager, which officially launched two years later in 1955. And though it seems neither the St. Louis Cardinals Hall of Fame and Museum nor Anheuser-Busch claim to have any documentation confirming (or denying) the accuracy of this legendary story, there's no denying that Gussie Busch (who had never sat through an entire nine-inning game) cared only how baseball could better sell beer…effectively changing sports marketing forever. Today, beer is deeply integrated into the Major League Baseball experience, with Budweiser serving as the sport's longest-standing sponsor…becoming the official beer of MLB dating back to 1980.

Melt Away Fat! Never Diet Again!! The promises of “magic pills” that will lead to safe, effortless weight loss are everywhere. But while these mythical weight loss products may never exist…the FDA is getting ready to approve something extremely close. The news has been nearly impossible to miss…with a tidal wave of interest in medications that are revolutionizing an innovative approach to weight loss is swiftly evolving. Unlike past diet and weight loss trends, GLP-1 drugs are generating levels of enthusiasm that have rarely been seen. And honestly, there are few examples from history that have generated such impact. What once started as a lesser-known treatment (aiming to control blood glucose levels) of type-2 diabetics has turned Ozempic, Wegovy, Mounjaro, and Zepbound into household names, and brought us to the cusp of a health revolution. Furthermore, the next few days, months, and beyond, are shaping up to be a pivotal time for the GLP-1 landscape…mostly due to the FDA expectantly approving the first orally administered medication for chronic weight management (i.e. oral Wegovy semaglutide) sometime during this fourth quarter of 2025. Though, if this discovery has fueled an unprecedented surge in interest and demand for these current injectable peptides, why then are companies working so hard to make oral tablet forms of weight loss drugs that target the GLP-1 receptor? From a business perspective, there are some obvious advantages…such as oral tablet formulations tend to be cheaper and easier to manufacture and distribute than sterile injector pens. In fact, manufacturing complexity, both in terms of making the peptide active ingredients and producing the final injectors…significantly contributed to both Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk struggling to supply surging demand for their products following approvals for weight loss indications. And from a patient perspective, oral weight loss pills are attractive for several reasons…most notably enhancing convenience for those who simply prefer pills to injections and making treatment accessible to those who are “extremely needle-phobic.” However, while tablet forms are generally more familiar and accessible to most individuals, the relative success of any oral drugs will likely depend on a combination of price, performance, and side-effect profiles. And although oral Wegovy is expected to be approved first, competition will quickly heat up from a myriad of biopharma companies, including Eli Lilly, Viking Therapeutics, Biomed, and Roche. In fact, Eli Lilly is expected to submit its application soon to the FDA for its once daily oral weight loss drug (with potential regulatory approval in 2026). Regardless, the demand for effective weight loss treatments is huge…and there's ample space in the market for a variety of complementary therapies. According to recent Goldman Sachs projections, the U.S. weight loss medication market will essentially triple to over $60 billion by 2030…with oral versions accounting for a quarter of that total market size. While oral weight loss drugs represent (in my opinion) one of the most significant new product cycles across the entire biopharma sector, there's no guarantee they make an immediate disruptive market impact or outcompete existing injectables long-term. And these will be margin accretive for the pharmaceutical industry's newest cash cow…even if this first wave isn't perfect, there will be a next wave of improvements, and then another new wave of improvements after that (if appropriate).

The “most human” commercials (aka organic social content) can also be the most effective within today's world of increased advertising exposure. Throughout the current decade, various beverage brands have experienced their share of viral organic social content…but none arguably more impactful than the “Ocean Spray Vibin” video from 2021. The homemade lip-syncing video was real, raw, human, and vulnerable…and it ultimately proved more effective than any recent Ocean Spray effort at increasing sales and social media followers. But then, what happened because of the recent “Saratoga daily routine” videos…really blew our collectively minds on how the “most human” commercials can create absurd levels of business impact. Saratoga quickly became one of the hottest brands in America, and the premium water is now on pace to surpass $100 million in revenue this year. Yet, let's see if Primo Brands, the multibillion-dollar beverage giant owner of Saratoga, can effectively build a comprehensive strategy that leverages (but doesn't hijack) the moment.

It became “a way of life” built around the simple idea of replacing meals with diet shakes…but can SlimFast stay relevant in an era when consumers are fixated with another weight loss mechanism that promises swift results? Is there a nutritional supplement brand more intertwined with fluctuations inherent to the weight management category than SlimFast? Even decades before SlimFast launched, the parent company (Thompson Medical) created an appetite suppressant gum called Slim-Mint Gum containing benzocaine, a diet pill called Figure-Aid, and another weight loss supplement Dexatrim (which became the best-selling diet pill on the market). Then, in 1977, Thompson Medical introduced SlimFast…marketed as a meal replacement shake that was to be utilized at breakfast and lunch. Unfortunately, during its first year on the market, the FDA issued warnings about the dangers of liquid dieting products…and every meal replacement supplement (including SlimFast) were removed from store shelves. Coincidentally, Thompson Medical was able to reintroduce SlimFast in the early 1980s…right around the time when Dexatrim sales began to decline due to regulatory concerns over ingredient safety. By 1984, Thompson Medical reported sales of approximately $197 million (which would be more than $600 million today adjusting for inflation). But throughout the mid-1980s, categorical competition heightened…especially after Oprah Winfrey began promoting Opti-Fast. So, gaining inspiration from that celebrity endorsement, SlimFast stumbled upon what would become the brand's most successful advertising tool going forward. Hearing about a weight loss wager between Los Angeles Dodgers manager and two of his players, SlimFast signed Tommy Lasorda and helped him lose a significant amount of weight. It was the first highly successful campaign in a line of male celebrity endorsements that was largely responsible for significantly increasing brand awareness and expanding SlimFast into RTD beverages, frozen meals, and packaged snacks. Throughout the 1990s, SlimFast held a dominant market share across the intensely growing weight management subcategories…reporting sales of $611 million in 1999 (which would be around $1.2 billion today adjusting for inflation). And at the height of its popularity in 2000, Unilever acquired SlimFast for $2.4 billion. But a few years into the aggressive expansion efforts by Unilever, consumer preferences shifted within the weight management category, as the high protein and low carbohydrate diet craze (focused on Atkins and the South Beach Diet) became extremely popular. Unilever made various strategic product (and marketing) adjustments in hopes of better positioning SlimFast within the shifting marketplace, but retail sales fell 80% compared to when the brand was acquired. In 2014, Unilever eventually offloaded the brand to the private equity firm Kainos Capital. Over the next four years, Kainos Capital revitalized SlimFast, flipped sales trajectory into the fastest-growing weight management brand, and sold SlimFast to Glanbia for $350 million. Initially, Glanbia was able to successfully piggyback off the “keto diet trend,” growing SlimFast 45% larger than before the acquisition…but struggles intensified starting in 2022. But last week, when Heartland Food Products Group (owner of the Splenda low-calorie sweetener brand) announced it had acquired the SlimFast from Glanbia. And though Splenda is one of the most recognizable global brands, how does that translate into a brand selling nutritional supplements and RTD protein shakes?

Observable phenomena that precede changes in larger markets are found everywhere…hence why I believe a trio of trending nutraceutical ingredients could be a powerful leading indicator for the next generation of energy drinks. And I want to set the stage by providing my basic mental model surrounding the market evolution of energy drinks. Firstly, energy drinks are no longer just sugar-filled flavored caffeinated carbonated waters. In fact, more than half of all energy drinks sold in the United States are sugar free. Secondly, energy drinks are no longer marketed primarily to thrill-seeking young males. In fact, energy drink consumers have evolved greatly…with the current market largely gender-balanced, age-balanced, and lifestyle-oriented. Lastly, energy drinks are no longer a niche beverage category. In fact, the categorical mainstreaming effect catapulted three energy drink brands onto the top ten list of largest liquid refreshment beverages. Additionally, every multibillion-dollar functional beverage category (such as energy drinks) is in the early innings of a remarkable transformation…as consumers move closer towards this four-way intersection of taste, convenience, nutrition, and (not only) functionality (but) multifunctional benefits that contribute to overall wellbeing. And I'm not debating against plain ole great tasting sugar free energy drinks remaining a consumption evergreen…but an evolving arbitrage will continue existing due to individuals not wanting totally different consumption habits (just more beneficial ones). So, amidst this booming desire for packing more functionality within energy drinks…savvy ingredient companies have found a catalyst to mainstream awareness and mass acceptance. Currently, almost all energy drink consumers understand the category as stimulation (delivered through caffeine). Yet, even against the backdrop of likely the highest consumer interest level in caffeine ever…why then do I think Cognizin citicoline, goBHB ketones, and Enfinity paraxanthine, will play an outsized role in the next generation of energy drinks? For the evolving RTD energy category, that increasingly serves as a euphemism for other benefits like alertness, focus, reduced fatigue, and improved endurance…consumers concentrating around a handful of clear outcomes will play an important role in how these nutraceutical ingredients (beyond caffeine) deliver relevant products that tap into broader market opportunities. Also, over the last handful of years…work-life balance has gotten redefined (and adjusted bi-directionally), as the typical 9-to-5 work schedule intermixes with other segments of personal time. Additionally, consider the widening range of applications and “physical versus mental energy” need states this functional beverage category can serve like active nutrition, cognitive performance, and healthy aging…suggesting consumers (more than ever) are looking for solutions that help energize them throughout the day (even into the night) and help recovery for the next day. But then why does caffeine still dominate as the primary ingredient solution? Caffeine is universally lauded for its ability to kickstart the day, with effects felt almost immediately, but the ingredient does have its limitations. So, taking into consideration those well-known limiting factors…how about I briefly describe some of the underlying drivers of demand that support my non-consensus (and early) conviction around escalating importance of (Cognizin, goBHB, and Enfinity paraxanthine) within the next generation of energy drinks.

In 2007, when The Coca-Cola Company acquired the enhanced water portfolio Glaceau for $4.1 billion…all the attention was focused on its flagship brand Vitaminwater. Heck…even 50 Cent reportedly made around $100 million from the M&A transaction, as the rapper structured his deal around equity rather than traditional endorsement fees. But significant change has happened since…from 50 Cent filing for bankruptcy in 2015 to the retail sales of Vitaminwater slowing down. But within the endless catalog of famous 50 Cent lyrics, he once said, “every negative is a positive. The bad things that happen to me, I somehow make them good. That means you can't do anything to hurt me.” And that personifies exactly how this massive M&A deal played out, with Smartwater emerging as a billion-dollar premium water brand and the biggest water brand overall in The Coca-Cola Company portfolio.

At least to me, it seems everywhere you turn…iron-clad sports nutrition brands of the past are now showing huge cracks in their armor. So then, why does the industry appear shocked by the recent Iovate Health Sciences International news? For those that haven't already read the headlines, (last week) Iovate Health Sciences International filed voluntary petitions for protection under Chapter 15 of the Bankruptcy Code. But unlike other chapters that address domestic bankruptcies, Chapter 15 doesn't involve a full liquidation or reorganization of the debtor through the U.S. court system. Instead, Chapter 15 is an administrative process to grant U.S. recognition to a foreign proceeding…designed to facilitate cross-border insolvency cases involving debtors, creditors, and assets in multiple countries. Thus, Iovate Health Sciences International is utilizing the bankruptcy proceedings to stabilize its operations and pursue an orderly cross-border restructuring…because if you didn't realize, the parent company of supplement brands like Hydroxycut and MuscleTech is headquartered in Canada. Founded in 1995, Iovate initially began as MuscleTech Research and Development…launching as a direct-to-consumer mail order business with just three products, one of which was the original Hydroxycut formula. A year later, MuscleTech expanded into physical retailers like GNC…and then soon after launched the infamous Cell-Tech product, along with Nitro-Tech, quickly becoming the first (and probably only) occurrence in supplement industry history that a single brand owned the top-selling fat burner, creatine, and protein powder products simultaneously. But while Iovate continually evolved its family of sports nutrition and wellness brands throughout the 21st century, the current portfolio includes the beforementioned MuscleTech and Hydroxycut (which eventually got spun off into a standalone brand), but also Six Star Pro Nutrition and Purely Inspired. And I can continue being nostalgic and overly positive by sharing numerous commercial highlights, but that wouldn't tell the entire business story. In fact, a central reason for changing the company name to Iovate Health Sciences International resulted from an original MuscleTech bankruptcy filing in June 2005…which got triggered after it faced thousands of lawsuits mostly related to Hydroxycut products containing ephedra. And I can go on and mention many other lawsuit settlements and reputational blunders…but in 2016, Xiwang Foodstuffs acquired Iovate Health Sciences International for reportedly north of a half-billion dollars. So, what caused this bankruptcy? The largest trade payable is the organic nutritional products brand Orgain, which (as of 2022) is now majority owned by Nestle Health Science. While the legal battle wasn't publicized much, Orgain filed a trade dress infringement lawsuit against Iovate…alleging that the Purely Inspired mimicked the Orgain packaging. Then, in April 2024, a U.S. court ordered Iovate to pay Orgain $12.5 million for copying its product labeling. But after Iovate failed to pay, Orgain obtained a writ of garnishment against Walmart, which withheld approximately $8 million in outstanding accounts receivable payments…severely impacting the working capital of Iovate. And as you'd imagine, this liquidity crunch ended up being a central reason why Iovate defaulted on its secured debt with Royal Bank of Canada. But while the protracted legal battle with Orgain might've been the “straw that broke the camel's back,” it hardly explains everything.

With its original investment thesis proven accurate, Nutrabolt has decided to expand its strategic partnership with Bloom Nutrition. So, this content will provide you with the legitimate “insider” deep dive insights needed to really understand the nuance behind why Nutrabolt and Bloom Nutrition both decided to expand their strategic partnership, what it unlocks for Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP), and how it could impact the energy drinks market going forward. So, why is this such big news? Comparatively speaking, there isn't a single (early stage) brand (in my opinion) currently displaying the same level of beverage industry upside potential…especially within such an important large category like energy drinks. And while that original strategic growth capital obviously fueled and accelerated many key areas like (most notably) product innovation…I can say with complete confidence that the record-setting explosive growth year of Bloom Sparkling Energy (or the initial breakout success of Bloom Pop) would not have happened without Nutrabolt. Also, I'm not even referencing any impact from the Nutrabolt and KDP strategic partnership either…as the biggest value Nutrabolt provided to Bloom was ensuring “Icarus” didn't fly too close to the sun. The truth is…Bloom already had the vision, but it needed that trusted “big brother” to help with the recent brand evolution. But the expanded investment strengthens the commercial partnership between Bloom and Nutrabolt, thus by proxy also strengthens the commercial partnership between Bloom and KDP (which has played a valued role in the Bloom retail strategy). And for those living under a rock…let me backtrack and mention that KDP acquired a significant minority equity stake in Nutrabolt about three years ago. Similarly, I can say with complete confidence, whether in terms of new categories, expanding usage occasions, attracting a broader consumer base…or just indirectly providing Nutrabolt with a much-needed kick in the ass around brand marketing, the “powerful step-change growth opportunity for Nutrabolt,” would not have happened without Bloom. The truth is…Nutrabolt already had the strategic discipline, but it needed that passionate energetic “little brother” to help with the recent company evolution. Nutrabolt is now on pace to exceed $1 billion in annual revenue on a consolidated basis…and has transformed into one of the fastest-growing and most talked-about global active health and wellness companies. But where does that take Nutrabolt next? Does becoming the majority owner of Bloom (strengthen or weaken) my Nutrabolt IPO prediction from several years ago? I've always felt Nutrabolt becoming a public company would be advantageous for KDP as well…as I've been mentioning this proxy strategic investment vehicle concept for years. Obviously, the recent CELSIUS, Alani Nu, Rockstar Energy, and PepsiCo transaction further confirmed the importance of this “strategic category captain” structure. So, my conviction should be stronger than ever around KDP utilizing Nutrabolt as the “active nutrition” category captain, but that would require me turning a blind eye to the recent announcement that KDP would acquire JDE Peet's (and subsequently separated into two separate independent companies…currently given generic “Global Coffee Co.” and “Beverage Co.” placeholder names). And while KDP streamlining itself doesn't necessarily diminish the chances of a Nutrabolt IPO, it likely complicates the beforementioned idea of being the “KDP Beverage Co.” active nutrition category captain.

What could the Major League Baseball “Pittsburgh drug trials” have in common with CELSIUS energy drinks 40 years later? While relatively unknown compared to the “BALCO performance enhancing substances” scandal, the first major drug punishments handed out across Major League Baseball involved players using cocaine in their respective clubhouses. In fact, during the late-1970s and early-1980s, drug use in society was considered a huge problem at hand…and that included affecting “as many as 40 percent of major league baseball players.” And while the Pittsburgh drug trials were lauded for cleaning up the game of illegal street drugs…usage of amphetamines continued to be super common in baseball until testing protocols changed in 2006. Then, baseball players responded by getting Adderall prescriptions, and more recently consuming copious energy drinks. So, what does this have to do with CELSIUS? Recently, rumors began flying around Major League Baseball that drinking the brand's energy drinks could result in a false positive for cocaine. And I don't need to be a toxicologist to assert the absurdity around that false claim, but hasn't the public learned yet that athletes caught consuming illegal substances will always try placing blame on dietary supplements (or in this case a functional beverage that was incubated within the supplement industry).

Ain't no party like a Beatbox party, cause a Beatbox party don't stop…except when the production lines get foreclosed on! But to better understand that last statement, it requires a brief four-year “rise and fall” history lesson surrounding the small Canadian public company named Flow Beverage Corporation. In mid-2021, a reverse takeover transaction was completed on the premium water company, and Flow Beverage began trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange. After that liquidity event, the total fundraising amount of Flow Beverage ballooned to around $100 million (which included celebrities like Post Malone and athletes like Russell Westbrook). And I'm mentioning that financial snapshot of total amount raised by Flow Beverage for interesting several reasons. Firstly, irrespective of CPG category…raising nine-figures of capital is substantial (and shouldn't be overlooked). Also, it appears even more significant after realizing the company's highest annual revenue never expanded beyond merely one-third of that total fundraising amount…a far cry from the founder (and CEO) Nicholas Reichenbach stating in 2021 that he'd “take Flow Beverage to multi-billion dollars of revenue annually.” Next, capital structure challenges became a central reason for the demise of Flow Beverage…a mere four years after going public. And arguably the “straw that broke the camel's back” happened in May 2025 when Nicholas Reichenbach signed a series of binding term sheets (requiring personal guarantee) that seemed (even at the time) unlikely to solve any working capital issues. But as you've likely been able to determine already…Flow Beverage wasn't Liquid Death. And since Flow Beverage wasn't a highly skilled marketing company that just so happened to sell packaged beverages…burning nine-figures of capital on advertising would've been frankly absurd! Instead, at the time of the reverse takeover transaction, Flow Beverage owned two artesian springs and operated two North American Tetra Pak-capable production facilities. So, Flow Beverage was the opposite of the typical beverage company deploying an asset-light business model. And while those Tetra Pak manufacturing sites were used to produce Flow Alkaline Spring Water, the company also utilized them for contract manufacturing…servicing customers like BeatBox Beverages, BioSteel, and Joyburst. But a few weeks ago, Flow Beverage was forced to enter into a support agreement and transfer ownership of the business and its assets to primary lenders (i.e. NFS Leasing Canada and RI Flow) after they demanded repayment. And this foreclosure obviously leaves uncertainty around what could happen during the restructuring process...especially for its largest contract manufacturing customer Beatbox Beverages (one of the fastest-growing and top-selling RTD alcohol brands in the United States). If you aren't familiar, Beatbox Beverages has become the brand that's bringing the party to the alcohol industry. Yet, the “original party punch” has proven its way more than just a music festival favorite…becoming the most engaged alcohol brand on social media, with availability in over 125K stores across all 50 states. In 2025, BeatBox Beverages is expected to sell over 12 million cases…amounting to over $250 million in retail sales. And with BeatBox Beverages experiencing triple-digit YoY retail sales growth over the past few years…it must consistently reach for operational excellence, or the proverbial party could end abruptly.

Can we talk about how Red Bull suddenly stopped overlooking the fitness crowd? It was more than a decade ago when Bang Energy popularized performance energy drinks, which was instrumental in broadening the appeal of energy drinks. And even if they won't ever admit it publicly, large energy drinks incumbents like Red Bull and Monster Energy both incumbents have become increasingly worried about brands incubated within the sports nutrition niche of the supplement industry, aka the “often imitated, never duplicated” influential epicenter of the CPG industry. But while it wasn't forced into a defensive product strategy like how Monster Beverage created Reign Total Body Fuel…Red Bull has more recently started focusing sports sponsorships and marketing activations on fitness enthusiasts. In fact, Red Bull exhibited at this year's Arnold Sports Festival, has gotten involved with fitness racing leagues like HYROX, and created branded fitness competitions like Red Bull Gym Clash. Finally, Red Bull just signed a multi-year global partnership with the functional group workout community F45 Training…integrating product sampling, branded coolers, and leveraging content creators.

Did Celsius Holdings and PepsiCo just pull-off the biggest “trade” the U.S. energy drinks market has seen over the past decade? I instantly felt like the beverage industry version of ESPN analyst Adam Schefter reporting on an NFL trade when I started to read the press release titled “Celsius Holdings and PepsiCo Strengthen Long-Term Strategic Partnership.” Essentially, CELSIUS acquired the Rockstar Energy brand (and $585 million in cash considerations), in return for PepsiCo receiving newly issued convertible 5% preferred stock, an additional board of directors seat, and the Alani Nu DSD distribution rights. And it reminded me of the all-time biggest “trade” within the energy drinks market that was announced in August 2014, involving Monster Beverage Corporation and The Coca-Cola Company entering into a long-term strategic partnership to accelerate growth for both companies in the fast-growing, global energy drink category. And beyond swapping brand assets, key terms of their current distribution agreement (like contract length, geographical expansion, and categorical exclusivity) were amended. But speaking of amended distribution agreements…the CELSIUS, PepsiCo, and Alani Nu DSD story likely began sometime in the second half of 2023 (when co-owners of Alani Nu started exploring sale options) but really started to heat up when a distribution agreement revision happened between CELSIUS and PepsiCo in early 2024. But then when the CELSIUS and Alani Nu deal was officially announced in February 2025, I quickly started shouting about this upcoming “short-term reward versus long-term risk” strategic roadmap decision involving Alani Nu distribution. And everyone knew the most obvious decision to optimize for a “short-term reward” was Celsius Holdings transitioning Alani Nu from its current piecemealed national (mostly independent) DSD network to the PepsiCo system. Yet, it's the question around “timing” that got me fired up! Alani Nu has been an absolute rocket ship brand over the last few years…which had been essentially built off the back of its current DSD distribution network. Though, from my very first content talking about the M&A announcement…I believed the best near-term strategic plan involved Alani Nu distribution network continuity because (1) it would minimize platform “key customer risk,” (2) strengthen focus on other business integration elements, but (3) lowers cannibalization risk significantly. And it's that last point around cannibalization risk, which (in my opinion) has become even more prominent after quickness of the distribution transition decision. Though, another expected strategic alignment got unlocked when Celsius Holdings took ownership of the Rockstar Energy brand…making them PepsiCo's strategic energy drink captain. And that essentially means Celsius Holdings will have the opportunity to drive the strategic direction of a unified energy portfolio through seamless planogram design, SKU prioritization, and promotional execution. Nevertheless, the biggest question revolves around whether Rockstar Energy will be net-additive or net-subtractive to the Celsius Holdings portfolio? And then lastly, my first principles thinking content will cover the energy drinks market implications from a new round of the DSD musical chairs game within the energy drinks category to exploring if more large-scale energy drinks market consolidation will happen soon.

In 2015, the most lucrative beverage industry deal ended up happening between Monster Beverage and The Coca-Cola Company. But what doesn't get talked about enough is how that long-term strategic partnership caused another beverage giant to experience the categorical version of the movie “50 First Dates.” And that's because before Coca-Cola became the exclusive global distribution partner of Monster Energy, Anheuser-Busch was the preferred domestic distributor…in the early phase of its “beyond beer” strategic transformation. But while AB InBev could've then aggressively pursued the acquisition of Bang Energy or more recently CELSIUS, GHOST, or Alani Nu…which had all been essentially built off the back of the beer giant's distributor network, it made the head scratching decision to buy HiBall Energy in 2017. And while AB InBev discontinued the all-natural energy drinks in 2023…it sold the defunct brand IP to Tilray a handful of months later. But now with more focus being placed on HiBall, the business is growing substantially on Amazon and returning to Whole Foods Market…a retailer where brand loyalty was strong. So, it begs the question…is there some kind of categorical curse on AB InBev that I haven't heard of yet?

I bet Nestle wishes it could go back and experience that “Great Shutdown” fueled demand spike again (because it went by too fast), but allowing some VMS brands to leave the nest could be its next step towards finding new growth! Within the prepared remarks section, Nestle leadership noted during the first-half 2025 earnings call that it had launched a review of its underperforming vitamins, minerals, supplements (VMS) portfolio…and that it could lead to the divestment of some brands. But wait…wasn't it just four short years ago when Nestle completed the $5.75 billion acquisition of The Bountiful Company? Yep! Nevertheless, I'll replay a contextually relevant portion of my conversation with Teddie Townsend (Managing Director - CG Sawaya Partners) from last year that will help you better understand what's really going on inside Nestle (and the entire supplement industry M&A strategic acquirer landscape). But when we recorded that conversational content, it wasn't publicly known yet that Nestle would be making a leadership change…with the new CEO (i,e. Laurent Freixe) taking over in September 2024. And it meant a shift in companywide strategy naturally happened…accompanied by a clear action plan to drive performance and transformation. Additionally, the Nestle Virtuous Circle strategic framework included an element about addressing underperformers to support growth…and specifically sharpening focus within Nestle Health Science. With a diverse portfolio of brands across VMS, Active Nutrition, and Medical Nutrition…Nestle Health Science has built a leading position, and the segment generates slightly less than $8.5 billion in revenue annually. And while Nestle still believes VMS is an attractive category with clear growth drivers…new leadership is focused on the premium end of the market, which is deemed to have the highest potential. So, going forward…Nestle Health Science will focus on its global premium VMS brands such as Garden of Life, Solgar, and Pure Encapsulations, as Nestle believes its capabilities in science, innovation, and brand-building give it a distinct competitive edge. Alternatively, Nestle launched a strategic review of its mainstream and value VMS brands, including (but not limited to) Nature's Bounty, Osteo-Bi Flex, Puritan's Pride, and private label. And though this likely divestment activity is consistent with the “focus and simplification” strategic growth approach of Nestle's new leadership…it basically dismantles a substantial portion of The Bountiful Company acquisition, which arguably was considered one of the predecessor's (i.e. Mark Schneider) most substantial moves throughout his 7-year pursuit of transforming the company into a health and nutrition powerhouse. But then…for the final portion of my latest first principles content piece, I'll explore two different “what's next” scenarios; who likely acquires these Nestle Health Science VMS brands under review and where I believe Nestle Health Science will strategically focus after the proverbial divestment dust settles.

By now, you've undoubtedly heard the business news that Keurig Dr Pepper entered into a definitive agreement to acquire JDE Peet's worldwide portfolio of beloved coffee brands. Under the terms of the agreement, KDP will purchase all outstanding ordinary shares of JDE Peet's…valuing the all-cash transaction at approximately $18.3 billion. And you might be thinking, “wow I didn't realize KDP was Mr. Money Bags,” especially after I mentioned in content recently that the almost $2 billion GHOST Lifestyle acquisition last year was its largest deal to date. But to understand what's really going on…it requires a history lesson that begins with Johann Adam Benckiser founding an industrial chemicals business in 1823. Though, the real business history nerds will recognize the initials of Johann Adam Benckiser for another reason. JAB Holding Company was formed in 2012, as a partner-led investment firm, with the consolidation of all business assets. During that early formation process, JAB Holding Company created the Coffee & Beverages Investment Platform via the take private transactions of Peet's Coffee and D.E Masterblenders. Then, a few years later…that investment platform expanded when it merged with the coffee division of Mondelez International (essentially creating the JDE portion of JDE Peet's). But in 2016, JAB Holding Company was involved in another coffee-related “take private transaction,” this time acquiring Keurig Green Mountain for $13.9 billion. Then, in 2018, Keurig Green Mountain acquired Dr Pepper Snapple Group for $18.7 billion…with JAB Holding Company owning (at the time) 73% of the combined Keurig Dr Pepper company. And while ownership percentages have fluctuated greatly over the years (especially on the KDP side), all roads still lead back to JAB Holding Company (even though you will see only a minor mention of it buried within the JDE Peet's transaction details section of the press release). So, what I'm saying is JAB Holding Company basically created both JDE Peet's and KDP…and thus, JAB Holding Company can essentially recreate JDE Peet's and KDP! After the M&A transaction closes, KDP plans to separate into two independent, U.S.-listed publicly traded companies…currently given generic “Global Coffee Co.” and “Beverage Co.” placeholder names. Yet, with a portfolio of iconic and emerging brands (generating more than $11 billion in annual net sales), a differentiated and expanding DSD distribution system, and a proven, capital-efficient “build, buy, partner” growth model, “Beverage Co.” will ACTUALLY not change much (at least initially). Instead, “Beverage Co.” will significantly improve due to sharper focused decision-making, tailored capital allocation strategies, and enhanced optionality overall. Essentially, the previous KDP “Refreshment Beverages” segment gets better through simplification. In just two short years, KDP went from getting its categorical ass whipped to controlling the most intriguing “active nutrition” brand portfolio by (1) acquiring a large stake in the maker of C4 Energy, (2) strategically partnering with Electrolit and Black Rifle Coffee, (3) acquiring GHOST, and (4) getting access to Bloom Nutrition through a proxy investment by Nutrabolt. But then, for the final part of my latest first principles content piece, I'll reconsider an element from my previous KDP “active nutrition” brand portfolio content…and examine possible new contagion effects from this separation announcement.

Olipop. Poppi. Simply Pop. Culture Pop. I imagine consumers confuse these brands…especially when they mostly look the same and talk the same. But instead of providing you with a dissertation on the effects of categorical amalgamation…I really wanted to highlight how me and my fellow Midwesterners (especially from Ohio) have been right all along! It's “POP” not “SODA.” Though, as the beverage category expands around a predetermined set of principles…it becomes increasingly ripe to be challenged. And maybe just maybe that challenger brand will be Bloom Nutrition, which is set release its shelf-stable Bloom Pop at Walmart by the end of summer. After skyrocketing up the rankings list of top-selling energy drinks in its first year, this “heat check type” innovation decision ultimately reflects how Bloom, Nutrabolt, and Keurig Dr Pepper are evolving together.

Decades later…its massive influence on the U.S. food system is still being felt. So, why should we believe the tobacco industry won't be involved somehow again as more consumers move closer towards this four-way intersection of taste, convenience, nutrition, and functionality? Through the direct ownership of U.S. food companies between the 1980s and early-2000s, tobacco companies greatly impacted the American diet (maybe forever). But it one of the 20th century's most influential (yet invisible) characters, Edward Bernays, who's considered the architect of modern mass manipulation, that's responsible for indirectly linking the tobacco industry to societal “health and wellness” standards for the last century. And maybe that also insinuates you shouldn't be super surprised when I tell you that as part of its mission to build “a better tomorrow,” British American Tobacco laid out a strategic vision in 2020 to reduce the scale of its business within combustible tobacco products…and among other initiatives created its BTomorrow Ventures corporate venture capital arm investing in various brands operating within the intersecting CPG categories of functional foods, functional beverages, and nutritional supplements. Also, beyond BTomorrow Ventures, British American Tobacco has a wholly owned subsidiary called The Water Street Collective, which is essentially an agency mashup of product developers and brand creatives. With the first commercialized product launch being small-format RTD functional beverages…it appears British American Tobacco wants to test if today's more-sophisticated consumer market is interested in kicking old “bad habits” by embracing new “wellness” products that target the same benefit area. Because here's the thing…while combustible tobacco products might not be showing any signs of a comeback, that doesn't mean nicotine isn't going through a resurgence. So, is recent product launch from The Water Street Collective signaling that Big Tobacco will soon launch nicotine RTD beverages? And I know by now…many of you have seen the images (or articles about) Nicotina Energy floating around the Internet, which seems to support this notion of nicotine RTD beverages becoming the next functional beverage category, but no way! FDA has been very clear for decades that nicotine cannot be a food additive…plus the ingredient does not meet the standard of being a dietary supplement. Instead, Big Tobacco is still singing off the hymn book that Edward Bernays gave them almost a century earlier. And whether it's deploying the entire “creation of circumstances” strategic playbook or not…the fact remains that Big Tobacco is already benefitting greatly from those self-reported (and clinically supported) functional benefits of nicotine. ZYN (owned by Philip Morris International) and its competitive product equivalents have exploded in popularity over the last few years…largely thanks to users on social media platforms talking about how these nicotine pouches suppress their appetite (sounds familiar doesn't it) and cognitive enhancement (which is tied to a newer appeal of modern masculinity). Also, according to Edward Bernays, “people must be trained to desire, to want new things even before the old have been entirely consumed.” Does that mean Big Tobacco really wants to transition away from the old go-to method of selling consumers functionality? I'd consider it unlikely, but that has seemingly opened a nascent segment of functional CPG products called caffeine pouches.

No longer simply known as that chalky powder gym bros take for bigger muscles…creatine is currently undergoing a significant metamorphosis. Though, what happens during this final stage could forever define the creatine market! While creatine was first discovered in muscle tissue in 1832, it took another 160 years before a new era of sports nutrition was created from the pivotal creatine supplementation human study conducted by Dr. Roger Harris. And after Linford Christie, the Barcelona Olympic Games gold medal winning sprinter at 100 meters, mentioned the powerful effects of creatine supplementation in an August 1992 newspaper article...the first commercial creatine supplement hit retail store shelves a year later and quickly gained popularity and widespread adoption among male athletes and fitness enthusiasts. Though, over the next almost quarter-century…it was a relatively boring growth period for the creatine market, with continued research solidifying the ingredient's effectiveness in muscle strength enhancement. Yet, it's this pupation developmental stage, which creatine has been undergoing lately…that very well could be what leads to substantial change across the marketplace, as the scientific flywheel is still spinning quickly! And that's because while many nutraceutical ingredients were popularized within that shadowy niche of sports nutrition, an ever-growing body of research with positive results has broadened use cases and expanded demographics…making them almost must-have staples for everyone. Nevertheless, researchers proving through studies that this nutraceutical ingredient has more than one purpose…isn't all that commercially impactful when you consider that only a microscopic percentage of the consumer market peruses PubMed frequently. Said another way…when a new creatine study gets published on the Internet, does it make a sales register ring? If you picked up on my adaption of the “tree falls in the forest” philosophical thought experiment, then you might guess where I'm going next…as I believe the final “adult” metamorphic stage will be defined by CPG entrepreneurs translating the evolving scientific flywheel of creatine into business ventures. By leveraging a consumer-centric strategic process of questioning, thinking, and subsequently experimenting across various go-to-market roadmaps…entrepreneurs can (and will) successfully reframe creatine, broaden use cases, and discover many new audiences beyond the gym. Though, the final portion of my latest first principles content will explore a few areas that will undoubtedly drive the future of the creatine market…from branding to formats (i.e. creatine gummies) and broadened use cases (and occasions).

When the creator and host of the number one listened to podcast amongst women globally decided to launch a hydration beverage…it sparked tons of both positive and negative commentary from industry pundits. But could Alex Cooper be the sports drinks category version of Alanu Nu creator Katy Hearn…that was a major catalyst for broadening the appeal of energy drinks to female consumers? Well…it's been a half-year since Unwell Hydration launched, and you're probably wondering if Alex Cooper made the beverage industry “Call Her Daddy” yet. In all honestly…not even close, at least not yet, but the beverage brand is now generating around $2 million in tracked channel retail sales monthly. Though, with its Nestle strategy partnership, and intentionally throttled distribution strategy right now, Unwell Hydration could easily see substantial growth soon. But if you're curious how that compares to the market leader Gatorade…let's just say the PepsiCo brand generates basically 10x that retail sales amount every single day.

Will FitLife Brands be able to show the “one man's trash” proverb is an effective growth strategy within the supplement industry? But for anyone new to these quarterly content pieces, FitLife Brands sells more than 250 SKUs across 13 supplement brands…each with a slightly different product portfolio and sales channel strategy. In total, the FitLife Brands portfolio is sold through more than 20K retail locations globally. But throughout this content, you'll hear me categorize the FitLife Brands portfolio into three segments: Legacy FitLife Brands, Mimi's Rock Corporation, and MusclePharm. Though, everything will be changing very soon with the recent acquisition of Irwin Naturals. In the second quarter of 2025, FitLife Brands Inc. (NASDAQ: FTLF) had revenues of $16.1 million...which was down 5% YoY. But while there's strategic initiatives going on that involve the legacy FitLife Brands and Mimi's Rock segments, the most intriguing activity within FitLife Brands is also currently its smallest segment (i.e. MusclePharm). In the second quarter of 2025, MusclePharm segment revenue was just under $2.6 million...which decreased 4% YoY. But maybe you're hearing that result…thinking to yourself “that's not too terrible,” and I'd typically agree (if it wasn't due to self-inflicted strategic wounds). After learning that FitLife Brands intended to bid on the bankrupt assets of MusclePharm, I was generally excited because it seemed to “be a good shepherd to the brand in the latter part of its life cycle.” Also, the pattern of conservative decision-making had me thinking FitLife Brands fully understood it's a turnaround marathon (and not a sprint). Moreover, it was super simple to see that the last 7+ years of MusclePharm brand mismanagement had provided a sizable amount of unlocked value that was just waiting to come out. Furthermore, doing the required “hard work” upfront (aka running the turnaround marathon) to rebuild the foundation of MusclePharm for the long haul would inherently unlock enough short-term financial results to appease shareholders around the acquisition ROI. Yet…that isn't what happened thus far! Instead, FitLife Brands has surprised me (and not in a good way), as leadership has been unable to learn from past MusclePharm experiences that in hindsight were major underlying driver of its failure. It started with “becoming a victim of product line extension creep” but quickly progressed to chasing ready-to-drink protein beverage (and ready-to-eat protein bar) mirages. Finally, I'll discuss the recent decision of FitLife Brands to find potentially “easier growth” through more M&A opportunities. During the first half of 2025, Irwin Naturals generated revenue of $33.1 million. And since the first half 2025 revenue of FitLife Brands was basically a million dollars less…the acquisition of Irwin Naturals effectively doubles the top-line revenue of new combined company.

The brand portfolio of Glanbia Performance Nutrition is the definition of a beige flag...not offensive, but not particularly inspiring or exciting either! Glanbia Plc (LON:GLB) is a multibillion-dollar global nutrition company that's currently comprised of three divisions that span across the B2B supply chain (i.e. Health & Nutrition and Dairy Nutrition) and branded products (Performance Nutrition). “Health & Nutrition” is a leading global ingredients solutions business, providing value added ingredient and flavor solutions to a range of attractive, high-growth end markets. In the first half of 2025, revenue increased by 18% YoY. Also, Glanbia announced the acquisition of Sweetmix, a Brazil-based nutritional premix and ingredients solutions business that will reportedly enable the Health & Nutrition segment to continue its Latin America expansion. “Dairy Nutrition” is the number one producer of American-style cheddar cheese in the U.S. market, but more importantly (for my audience) the number one producer of whey protein isolate…and provides a wide range of dairy and functional protein solutions. In the first half of 2025, revenue increased by 14.1%. The brands in the Glanbia Performance Nutrition portfolio include; Optimum Nutrition, BSN, think!, Isopure, Amazing Grass, and SlimFast. Glanbia Performance Nutrition had first half 2025 revenue that declined by 3.8% YoY, driven by a volume decrease of 3.5% and a price decrease of 0.3%. Additionally, I'll dive deeper into Glanbia Performance Nutrition geographical, sales channel, product format, and categorial performance. As part of the branded products portfolio part of the group-wide transformation program announced last November, Glanbia had begun the sale process on the weight management brand SlimFast (that was acquired for $350 million in 2018) and announced it signed an agreement for the sale of Body & Fit (that was acquired in 2017). So, if negative impact from non-core brands were excluded from the first half performance, GPN revenue would have only declined 1.5% YoY. Optimum Nutrition, which was the initial M&A transaction in 2008 that created the GPN division, now represents 67% of the total revenue. In the last year, Optimum Nutrition generated revenue of approximately $1.2 billion. The other largest share of GPN revenue is the healthy lifestyle brand portfolio makes up 19% and includes ISOPURE, think!, and Amazing Grass. While these healthy lifestyle portfolio brands have collectively performed relatively strong over the last several years, revenue was only up 0.6% YoY in the first half of 2025. And for the final portion of my latest first principles thinking content, I'll focus my “beige flag” assessment by examining GPN revenue by product format...and discuss the new ISOPURE protein water, think! crispy squares, and several new powdered supplement innovations like Optimum Nutrition creatine plus. I'll end with a discussion around what should be the strategic "north star" for Glanbia Performance Nutrition.

Talk to enough beverage industry oldheads…and eventually a few will share their “rise and fall” thoughts on The Coca-Cola Company's Venturing and Emerging Brands (VEB) unit. Launched in 2007, the VEB business unit was tasked with identifying and supporting the growth of beverage brands with billion-dollar potential through investment or acquisition. Essentially, VEB was a way for the beverage giant to better manage smaller brands…allowing them to move quicker (and fail faster). But judging VEB can drastically change based on snapshots over time and if you're holding The Coca-Cola Company to this absurd standard that success only means billion-dollar generational brands. So, maybe you could point to relative miscalculations with cold-pressed juice brand Suja or the more recent shuttering of Honest Tea or ZICO coconut water…but when talking about corporate venture capital, it only takes a massive success to balance everything out! And when we mention The Coca-Cola Company's VEB business unit…you can't overlook fairlife, which is now the fast-growing billion-dollar portfolio brand and has become absolutely crucial to the future of Coca-Cola.

Alani Nu is experiencing “scary-level growth,” but that shouldn't be concerning…as Celsius Holdings leadership doesn't get spooked easily! Celsius Holdings (NASDAQ: CELH) had quarterly revenue of $739.3 million, which was up 84% YoY. Excluding the Alani Nu acquisition-related financial impact, CELSIUS brand revenue grew 9% YoY. And if you were wondering about Alani Nu, it's second quarter revenue was $301.5 million…which equates to around 106% YoY growth! According to Circana last 13-week retail sales data, CELSIUS increased by 3% YoY...remaining the third-largest energy drink brand in the category with a dollar share of 11%. Alani Nu increased retail sales 129% YoY and is now the dominant fourth player in the U.S. energy drinks market with dollar share of 6.3%. If we look at Celsius Holdings combined brand portfolio, it reached 17.3% of dollar share for the last 13-week period ending June 29, 2025...ranking it third and trailing only Red Bull and the combined Monster Beverage portfolio. Additionally, if you were to consider the last 52-week period ending July 20, 2025…Celsius Holdings retail sales were over $4 billion, surpassing the combined sales of the next eight energy drink brands. Celsius Holdings has experienced massive growth in convenience stores, foodservice (e.g. fast food restaurants), mass retailers like Walmart, the club channel in retailers like Costco, and the Amazon marketplace. And international expansion presents significant opportunity for incremental growth over the next three to five years. With the Celsius brand basically at full distribution now…growth will be unlocked through a strategic growth framework that John Fieldly recently branded as “more people,” “more places,” and “more often.” And while Alani Nu will obviously be integrated into many aspects of that strategic growth framework...it will currently be done outside of the PepsiCo distribution network. If you remember (in my initial content) after the M&A deal was officially announced, I made the strategic recommendation regarding Alani Nu independent DSD distribution network continuity…as I believed it provided Celsius Holdings the best near-term strategic plan to (1) minimize platform “key customer risk,” (2) strengthen focus on other business integration elements, but (3) lower near-term cannibalization risk significantly. But beyond the distribution strategy difference, Alani Nu is also “leaps and bounds” ahead of the CELSIUS brand in leveraging LTO product innovation. Alani Nu showed extraordinary strength, led by Sherbet Swirl and Cotton Candy. But believe it or not…expectations are even higher heading into the next quarterly reporting period, as Alani Nu customers are going wild across social media about the fan favorite Witch's Brew flavor recently returning to stores (along with a funky new LTO flavor Pumpkin Cream). But or the Celsius Holdings portfolio to meaningfully expand its household penetration beyond the current 43%, it must stay culturally relevant with the next generation of modern energy drinkers by continuing to invest in brand awareness activities that focus on driving trial and loyalty.

Last summer, it was a protein Ice Cream experiential marketing event. And now it's a collaboration with my fellow dessert loving Ohioan Christina Tosi (Founder of Milk Bar). Come on Premier Protein…I'm feeling super left out! BellRing Brands (NYSE: BRBR) is a portfolio that owns a collection of convenient nutrition brands like Premier Protein and Dymatize Nutrition, which was previously wholly-owned by Post Holdings. A fast-paced and busy lifestyle is pushing consumers to switch to quick and healthy meal options. This has resulted in above average categorical growth rates and increased household penetration of RTD protein shakes that promote active lifestyles. Additionally, powders are becoming more mainstream, and category proliferation has created an environment where more consumers are purchasing both every day and performance nutrition positioned protein products at grocery stores and mass retailers. Bellring Brands reported 2025 Q3 net sales of $547.5 million, which was up 6.2% YoY. Premier Protein (~90% of BellRing Brands total revenue) grew 6% YoY, which came from an nearly equal amount of volume growth and price increases. Dymatize Nutrition was up 5.4% YoY, stemming from volume increases within international markets and new product introductions. In response to these elevated sports nutrition competitive threats, BellRing Brands has attempted to invest further into Dymatize brand marketing and restarting product innovation. Though, I'd say neither effort has resulted in meaningful success yet. Moreover, I provide three deep dives into the functional CPG portfolio's "hero SKU families" of Premier Protein RTD protein shakes and Premier Protein and Dymatize protein powders. But my latest first principles thinking content will examine the recent Premier Protein packaging refresh and how the leading protein shake brand (understanding the power of an afternoon sweet treat) has consistently found ways to highlight the versatility of their product that doesn't sacrifice flavor for nutrition. The Premier Protein and Milk Bar menu includes a Blueberry Pancake Super Cookie, Mega Milkshake Caramel Cake, and Power-Packed Tiramisu Truffle. But here's the sad part for me (and many of you too), these decadent protein treats are only available at Milk Bar flagship locations and for delivery in the select markets. And since I currently don't have any business travel planned over the next several weeks to those cities…I'll have to hope they extend this collaboration into packaged goods one day in the future!

Whether it's the Gold Rush of yesteryear or today's Wellness Rush…it's hard to argue against the infallible nature of that famous “picks and shovels” proverb! This current “health optimization” period will undoubtedly be dramatized and romanticized…because the growing insanity of the Wellness Rush is no exaggeration. So, how do you get rich in today's Wellness Rush then? Yes, there's obviously outlier brands that will reach significant enterprise value…but most who thrive during the Wellness Rush will ignore acquiring health optimization end customers altogether. Instead, many successful companies will focus on another resource…the seemingly endless flow of new brand founders who transformed a shadowy niche into a thriving mainstream consumer market in a relatively short period of time. But while the “California Gold Rush” lasted only about a decade, the Wellness Rush is powered by a deeper multi-decade secular trend towards health-conscious consumption. Moreover, consumers are moving closer everyday towards this four-way intersection of taste, convenience, nutrition, and functionality. And consequently…every multibillion-dollar ingestible CPG category is in the early innings of a remarkable transformation, as thousands of brands are competing for consumer attention with wellness-focused marketing and functionality of ingredients. Yet, all that intense market expansion has caused a frenzy…and opportunity for those “picks and shovels” companies. About two weeks ago, TSI Group (a global leader in consumer-focused health and wellness innovation) successfully went through the process of becoming publicly traded on one of the world's most selective capital markets. But TSI Group listing its shares on the Shanghai Stock Exchange isn't just a financial milestone. Instead, it validates a strategic approach that has transformed real health needs into consumer-relevant, science-backed solutions for nearly three decades. And TSI Group builds these consumer-centric health solutions through an integrative approach spanning proprietary ingredients, advanced raw material optimization, innovative delivery systems, and personalized nutrition platforms. Based on its trailing twelve months of performance (for the period ending March 31, 2025), TSI Group reported generating around $145 million in revenue. So then, what's driving the business? TSI Group might be best known for HMB, a metabolite of the essential amino acid leucine (that plays an anticatabolic role in muscle tissue). In 2024, TSI Group generated around 29% of its total revenue from HMB…and holds more than 50% market share globally. As for the remaining TSI Group proprietary ingredients, the biggest proportion of its total revenue reportedly comes from ammonia sugar (which most commonly refers to glucosamine). TSI Group has about a 13% global market share…and GlucosaGreen has gradually grown into a world-renowned branded ingredient with high market recognition. Additionally, TSI Group has also developed and launched some of the most researched and effective nutraceutical ingredients, such as Peak ATP for athletic performance, Hobamine for cellular health, and Enfinity (paraxanthine) is becoming red hot within the functional beverages space. But beyond constructing several new facilities, a portion of the IPO proceeds will undoubtedly be allocated towards enhancing R&D capabilities to better understand downstream customer needs and industry pain points more deeply…as it's that root-cause approach, which has defined the 29-year legacy of TSI Group.

Molson Coors is the pettiest beverage company on earth…and it's hilarious. Several years ago, class action lawsuits alleged that Molson Coors “pixie dusted nutrients” into Vizzy Hard Seltzer and utilized various marketing strategies (with the intent) of profiting consumers' increasing desire to consume healthier food and drink. But who says an alcoholic beverage, that includes a potent antioxidant like Vitamin C…can't be a “wellness” product anyways? But more importantly, what did Molson Coors recently do that was so petty? Molson Coors decided to make its most popular product the centerpiece of a new wellness invention called the "Coors Light Chill Face Roller." And what Molson Coors determined was…that as long as you didn't also “drink the product” within your skincare routine utilizing the "Coors Light Chill Face Roller,” the beverage company could make multiple health claims about the product.

Maybe you can relate to this…but as an introvert, I only have a limited amount of social energy, and my preference is to spend it in ways that really count. In fact, avoiding “small talk” at business events has become one of my superpowers…and not because I dislike socializing (or people), but due to instead enjoying deep dives into topics and exploring ideas on a meaningful level. And while some might misclassify this desire to talk about things that feel personally important and relevant as some form of selfishness…I'd push back and say that “small talk” is often what can create barriers that prevents strong genuine business connections. But maybe the “next level” of those strong genuine business connections is unlocked when conversation depth is mixed with randomness…like can we stick together from random interesting topic to random interesting topic. And you'll quickly notice this was the type of conversation we had with the Co-Owner and President of PricePlow, Benjamin Kane. So yes, we obviously covered subject matter within the emerging and intersecting CPG categories of functional beverages and dietary supplements…but also covered general topics I've definitely never even remotely got close to mentioning publicly. Follow - Pour Decisions PodcastAlso, an extra special thanks to Cognizin, for not only being the Title Sponsor of The Beverage Forum 2025...but supporting this awesome piece of content!

Let's talk about how the most intriguing “active nutrition” brand portfolio isn't controlled by some legacy supplement company. Instead, in just two short years, Keurig Dr Pepper (NASDAQ: KDP) went from getting its categorical butt kicked in the “three-headed monster” of active nutrition beverages (aka energy drinks, sports drinks, and protein shakes) to now controlling the most intriguing “active nutrition” brand portfolio by (1) acquiring a large stake in the maker of C4 Energy, (2) strategically partnering with Electrolit and Black Rifle Coffee, (3) acquiring GHOST, and (4) getting access to Bloom Nutrition through a proxy investment by Nutrabolt. And this positive momentum is most evident within the energy drinks market, as the four brands controlled by KDP (e.g. C4 Energy, GHOST Energy, Bloom Sparkling Energy, and Black Rifle energy drinks) now combine to represent over $1 billion in annual run rate net sales…and are scaling rapidly. And in in aggregate…the KDP energy drink portfolio grew about one percentage point of share in 2025 thus far. And after experiencing more than 30% YoY retail sales growth in Q2, KDP holds a 7% share in the U.S. energy drinks market…which only trails the brand portfolio of Monster Beverage, Red Bull, and expanded Celsius Holdings brand portfolio. But having near-term aspirations of hitting a double-digit share position within the fast-growing $26 billion U.S. energy drinks market, KDP must surgically allocate meaningful resources to ensure (1) brand distinction between GHOST and C4 remains mission-critical and (2) Bloom Sparkling Energy gets ample support throughout its scaling phase. Then, in terms of hydration…Electrolit is currently the fastest-growing scaled brand and fourth-largest brand overall in the sports drink category. Benefitting from strong velocities, DSD enabled distribution expansion, and product innovation…Electrolit experienced retail sales growth over 30% YoY and gained more than 1.5 points of market share in Q2. And though I'd argue Electrolit is only scratching the surface of its long-term potential in the U.S. market, the KDP hydration portfolio also contains GHOST. Also, while these “enhanced waters” aren't technically included within this analysis…I'd be silly to not mention the huge rebound of the Bai brand, which has been powered recently in part by the “Sydney Sweeney effect.” KDP also recently acquired Dyla Brands, a manufacturer of powdered drink mixes and liquid water enhancers that should help those active nutrition brands build individual serving stick pack format presence in additional functional beverage categories. And then finally, I'll breakdown the KDP protein beverages platform…which is undoubtedly their laggard within the “three-headed categorical monster” of active nutrition beverages. Yet, in saying that…it might also be the category that sees the most upcoming “build, acquire, and/or partner” business activity. GHOST could (and should) look at relaunching its RTD protein beverages, C4 was rumored to be working on RTD protein beverages leveraging its Hershey's licensing partnership, and Bloom Nutrition could easily extend into RTD protein beverages (giving its female customers a fun mainstream clear whey innovation). But by controlling an intriguing brand portfolio and actively growing its go-to-market prowess and commercial playbook, I believe KDP is well-positioned to continue winning in this important “active nutrition” beverages space.

If I were to mention “branding,” what would be one of the first things that pops into your head? Since many of you are likely CPG industry stakeholders…I'd assume packaging design topped the list. And that makes sense because the right packaging is crucial for CPG products…as you can't sell what the consumer doesn't notice from a distance (especially within today's age of the endless aisle). But while packaging design is certainly an important way to create a positive first impression by visually indicating what your CPG brand represents inside-and-out…it's only one of many cascading strategic choices needed to create something truly distinct and special within the ultra-competitive CPG industry. And it was refreshing to hear that framework show up at different moments throughout this diverse conversation with the Vice President of Strategic Marketing at Resource Label Group, Melanie Edwards Virreira. Beyond discussing a few packaging design tips and tricks to enhance connection with today's consumers, we examined how to best retain your brand identity system when shifting into different formats…and why packaging should really be considered a “below the line” marketing expense instead of included within cost of goods sold. Additionally, we examined the unlocked value that gets created when you stop being primarily transactional with your supplier relationships. Follow - Pour Decisions Podcast Also, an extra special thanks to Cognizin, for not only being the Title Sponsor of The Beverage Forum 2025...but supporting this awesome piece of content!

Move over custom hand-crafted gold plated thousand dollar 5-Hour Energy cufflinks from last year…because we have a new “chompion” within the absurd world of CPG branded luxury fashion accessories. So, on the most-watched red carpet event of the season…a night when million-dollar jewels adorn celebrities and fashion makes its boldest statements, 1800 Tequila claimed its place as the Met Gala's most unexpected luxury. Inspired by the iconic 1800 Cristalino bottle (and the blue Weber agave plant), a one-of-a-kind diamond…presented in a brooch, was worn by Grammy-nominated musician and actress Janelle Monáe. According to the jewelry designer, “every detail of the 1800 Tequila diamond brooch was crafted to embody the spirit of liquid in solid form.” So, while we likely won't see many CPG brands trying their hand at designing diamonds…I think it's super inspiring that 1800 Tequila maintained brand consistency across different artistic mediums.

So, I'm not sure if this is a slightly “hot take” or not, but regardless…I'm totally fine stating on the record that I believe the Flintstones and Hulk Hogan provided (historically) two of the most impactful positive inflection points involving the children's health supplements market. Initially, children's chewable vitamin tablets were generic in shape…but the game changed forever in 1968 when Miles Laboratories launched Flintstones Chewable Vitamins. By transforming essential nutrients into the beloved characters of the Hanna-Barbera animated sitcom, the product cleverly capitalized on the cartoon's popularity to make vitamin consumption an enjoyable and appealing experience for children. This innovative approach helped demystify vitamins, making them more accessible and less like medicine. And while these revolutionary Flintstones Chewable Vitamins marked the first successful foray into marketing health products to children…Miles Laboratories was hardly an unknown small pharmaceutical company, as it also was responsible for inventing products like Alka-Selzer and One-A-Day vitamins. In fact, Miles Laboratories was generating more than $2 billion in inflation adjusted revenue a half-century ago. And in 1979, when Bayer acquired Miles Laboratories…it became (at the time) the most expensive U.S. acquisition by a foreign pharmaceutical company, ever. Today, while the dominate delivery format of Flintstones Vitamins has evolved with the market preference of gummies…you can still find the standard chewable tablets basically anywhere vitamins are sold in the U.S. market. Also, Flintstones Vitamins are supposedly still the number one pediatrician brand choice for children's chewable vitamins…and reportedly sustains nine-figures of retail sales dollars annually. But then, deploying a vastly different (yet equally) powerful strategy to impact children's dietary habits and perceptions of health and wellness, Hulk Hogan famously said, "say your prayers, eat your vitamins, and be true to yourself." Back in the 1980s and 1990s, Hulk Hogan wasn't just a titan of that specific entertainment genre…he became a cultural icon. Portrayed as a heroic figure who embodied strength, perseverance, a positive attitude…and championed doing the right thing, the larger-than-life persona of Hulk Hogan created a powerful connection with countless "Hulkamaniacs” young (and old). And while not directly associated with a specific vitamin brand at the time when he began incorporating and constantly repeating "eat your vitamins" into his mantra, Hulk Hogan elevated the potentially mundane chore to a vital step in achieving strength and becoming a real-life hero like himself. Though, in the early 1990s…Hulk Hogan finally connected “catchphrase to commerce” by advertising his own line of chewable children's vitamins. And while his chewable vitamins didn't prove successful long-term (especially compared to the Flintstones), the direct endorsement further solidified the link between Hulk Hogan and healthy habits in the minds of children. The exact commercial impact the Flintstones and Hulk Hogan had on the children's health supplements market would be quantifiably impossible for me to obviously figure out. And despite the early childhood and preadolescence stages declining usage rate…multivitamins still account for around 70% of the total children's health supplements market, thus making it the primary underlying driver behind the booming (basically) billion-dollar retail sales category within the U.S. market right now!

It's the middle of another week…and as Chris Williamson just discussed recently, I'm feeling that “productivity debt” weighing on me. Yet, I'm still sitting here quite certain that I can predict what's next for Neutonic...the productivity CPG brand that he's building with James Smith (and Shan Hanif). But that “vague sense of falling behind” can come in many shapes and sizes. In fact, I'm feeling that productivity debt right now…after taking forever (especially for internet standards) to meaningfully comment on a specific piece of business news involving a brand operating within my deep domain expertise, which is (as many of you know already) the intersecting categories of functional foods, functional beverages, and nutritional supplements. So, while I certainly read a few of those articles that began circulating the interwebs earlier this month about Neutonic raising just over $3 million…all that initial dynamic fascination and pattern deconstruction (in an attempt to) “see around the corner” didn't materialize into a formal output until now. But don't fret, this extra “think time” invariably led to the type of compelling insights you won't find anyone else. In November 2023, Neutonic initially launching one flavor of what it dubbed “the world's first productivity drink,” quickly selling out all inventory online. And this positive commercial result was largely the result of Neutonic possessing two powerful “creators turned CPG founders” with Modern Wisdom podcast host Chris Williamson and fitness YouTuber James Smith. And not to sound like a broken record at this point…but I'm a longtime believer that the most popular creators of today can become the biggest CPG brands of tomorrow. But speaking of all that…since the initial launch, Neutonic has sold over 3 million cans of its productivity drink thus far. And within the U.S. and UK markets combined, deploying a sales channel strategy prioritizing DTC, Amazon, and TikTok shop…Neutonic reported generating more than $10 million in revenue. But while sales activity is still concentrated on RTD productivity beverages…the product line has expanded to include non-caffeinated “focus” powder sticks and non-caffeinated “brain” capsules, with all science-backed formulations sharing the same nucleus of utilizing the optimal clinical dose of Cognizin citicoline. But it's pretty obvious that Neutonic has outsized ambitions, but a few million dollars of outside capital isn't going to get a relatively unknown beverage brand, positioned within a nascent energy drink subcategory…considerable traction within certain U.S. sales channels (like convenience). So, my latest first principles thinking content piece will explore what Neutonic needs to achieve if it wants to attract strategic buyers like Nutrabolt (C4 Energy).

I've been seeing a ton of passionate GHOST energy drink fans making videos about the switch from textured sleeves to printed cans. And that level of feedback must've gotten really loud when both founders posted the same day (but separately) on social media providing customers with an explanation regarding the packaging change. Though, as an industry strategist, with deep domain expertise in functional beverages (like energy drinks), I feel compelled to provide you with the actual motive beyond the enhanced recyclability aspect (which is technically true). GHOST just wants to make cool shit…but big corporations have their own priorities. Let me explain. From an input cost perspective, GHOST should've switched to printed cans more than a half-billion units earlier…but the brand severely delayed the strategic decision because textured sleeves are a superior brand creative vehicle. Yet now that GHOST is owned by KDP, the beverage giant rightfully wants a less complicated supply chain and more cost-efficient scalable manufacturing process. Though, don't trash GHOST for what you perceive as selling out to Big CPG priorities just yet, as something tells me a large portion of the total cost savings will be reallocated into making even cooler shit happen.

Have you ever heard the saying that goes something like “when you get older…don't meet the people you looked up to when younger because they'll surely disappoint”? Well…way back (about two decades ago at this point) when I was working towards my undergraduate and MBA degrees, professors would obviously cite contemporary business events to clearly connect academic lessons with real world applications. But specifically, I vividly remember marketing professors discussing aspects of the Super Bowl beer ads and my corporate finance and strategy professors extracting insights from the mega merger between (and subsequent integration of) Anheuser-Busch and InBev. And there's a common thread between those two core memories. Until the recording of this podcast episode, I had not met Dave Peacock…but analyzed many of his decisions in the late-2000s and early-2010s when he led marketing and then became President of Anheuser-Busch, which likely subconsciously helped construct the foundation of my unique strategic perspective surrounding the CPG industry. And since the meeting happened spontaneously…you'll notice I was in “listen mode” more than I'm normally within these conversational content pieces. And it's probably because, unlike that saying…the stories and insights shared by Dave Peacock, from his time at Anheuser-Busch and the grocery store Schnuck Markets to currently at Advantage Solutions, did not disappoint at all. Follow - Pour Decisions PodcastAlso, an extra special thanks to Cognizin, for not only being the Title Sponsor of The Beverage Forum 2025...but supporting this awesome piece of content!

There's a double-edged sword aspect that doesn't get talked about enough in today's low barriers-to-entry CPG business landscape. A piece of information (about your CPG product or brand) can rapidly spread across the Internet, reaching wide audiences, and becoming popular in an instant. But “going viral” isn't a strategy. In fact, it's oftentimes second- and third-order effects from virality that cause so many failures across the CPG industry. Does that mean “chasing that next big viral moment” is worthless? No, but like Jason Adelman (SVP - Strategy & Partnership Development at Brand Innovators) said in this podcast episode, “most brands fail when they don't plan for what's next.” What happens when your celebrity co-founder's newest movie is a massive hit? Does your CPG brand possess the multi-disciplined acumen across brand marketing to effectively and efficiently maximize this halo effect? If not, do you have a trusted, strategically agnostic voice that can help you find the right agency partners and innovative marketing technology? So, while you've likely extracted various lessons from the Del Monte Foods bankruptcy and other “famous” business failures recently…don't overlook learning about how to navigate the complexities of today's CPG marketing landscape, as it's becoming the industry's silent assassin. Follow - Pour Decisions Podcast Also, an extra special thanks to Cognizin, for not only being the Title Sponsor of The Beverage Forum 2025...but supporting this awesome piece of content!

What's the biggest flop in the U.S. energy drinks market over the last 5-7 years? I'm sure many will yell out “Coca-Cola Energy,” which could very well be the correct answer…mostly because The Coca-Cola Company bastardized its single most important brand asset. But what about Mountain Dew Rise Energy? For me, it's hard not imagining what “could have been” if the startup RTD coffee brand RISE Brewing didn't file a trademark infringement lawsuit against PepsiCo a few months after the product launch. If you remember in early 2021, Lebron James had just left Coca-Cola for PepsiCo…and quickly became the face of Mountain Dew Rise Energy. But after a judge issued a preliminary injunction barring PepsiCo from using the word “Rise,” prompting a name change to Mountain Dew Energy…Lebron James got shifted into repping the LifeWTR brand.

It's very likely that you've noticed “high protein claims” penetrating more diverse food and beverage categories. But what about an adjacent product strategy that's sneaking caffeine into anything and everything that's quick, easy, and accessible? So, beyond the ubiquitous availability of coffee, energy drinks, caffeinated carbonated soft drinks, and tea…you can now purchase items such as caffeinated nutritional bars, jellybeans with caffeine, coffee paste, caffeinated chocolate, caffeinated gum, mouth pouches with caffeine, coffee-flavored ice cream with caffeine, caffeinated mouth spray, and even coffee-flavored cereals with caffeine. But while there are several underlying drivers fueling the caffeinated grocery trend…examining each of them is likely unnecessary when you realize that caffeine is by far the most widely used psychoactive drug, with slightly more than 90% of U.S. adults consuming it regularly. Though, like pretty much anything seen across today's CPG industry…everything is a remix of the past. So, while startup CPG founders and Big CPG innovation teams might believe they can disrupt (or complement) the various traditional caffeinated beverage formats…this is hardly the origin point for the caffeinated grocery trend. But please don't misconstrue these statements…I'm a strong believer that if you want to create something with lasting impact within today's CPG space, it needs to be some combination of “new” yet “familiar.” Do something too closely related to the market leader and consumers won't take notice…but do something too novel and they're confused. So, as I stated earlier…successful CPG products oftentimes don't arrive out of nowhere; they're remixes that recycle and reimagine existing (or past) strategic elements. But while there will seemingly always be a new batch of innovative thinkers launching unconventional caffeine products…long-term successful adoption will only occur when novelty evolves into a perceived necessity. Yet, sometimes to create buzz, evoke curiosity, and/or resonate emotionally with consumers…novelty can offer a fresh way to stand out in a crowded marketplace. Obviously, there's an increasingly popular design theory (called chaos packaging) that takes familiar products and reimagines their containers in unconventional ways. And I want to fully acknowledge how valuable chaos packaging can be when done right…but expanding a bit, I believe that “form must follow function” when rethinking category norms strategically. Moreover, it's artistically beautiful when a format is chosen that doesn't quite meet the normal expectations but can bring in a different consumer through its ability to serve a specific need. But have you ever read something and thought, “how did society get to this insane moment?” Well…that's exactly what happened last week when I saw that Monster Energy acquired an ice cream brand. I guess energy drink brands had become jealous of their “caffeinated big brother” coffee being a beloved ice cream flavor and shifted their focus to disrupting the frozen grocery section. And before you try roasting me in the comments…I'm fully aware that the limited partnership Hilrod Holdings, not Monster Beverage Corporation, acquired Thrifty Ice Cream. But the “Hilrod” in Hilrod Holdings is formed by combining the first three letters of the first names of Monster Energy co-founders Hilton Schlosberg and Rodney Sacks. So, when (or if) can we ever expect to see a monster energy ice cream in grocery stores?

To eat…or to be eaten, that is again the question for the Simply Good Foods Company! In this latest episode, I'll utilize the Q3 2025 Simply Good Foods Company (NASDAQ: SMPL) financial statements, earnings call, and supplemental presentations for my expanded strategic commentary around convenient nutrition market dynamics and trends. In fiscal Q3 2025, Atkins Nutritionals brand dragged down the overall portfolio performance, but Quest Nutrition (up 11% YoY) and OWYN (up 24% YoY) beat categorical competitors in tracked and untracked combined channel retail takeaway. What's at the heart of the Quest Nutrition success? Quest Nutrition is still known for the original Quest Bar. And that means the company needs the bar business to be healthy for any of this innovation risk to make sense. But Quest Nutrition has proven it's one of the few brands that can successfully extend across multiple product forms...and its customer base expects them to come into an indulgent snacking category and flip it into great tasting (high protein, low sugar) offerings. The snacks segment of Quest Nutrition, which now accounts for half of all retail sales...and if we analyze one layer deeper, the salty side of the Quest snacks segment had quarterly retail takeaway growth of about 31%. And while that's super impressive…I believe there's a realistic path to doubling retail sales over the near-term. How? The single most important piece of this strategic growth playbook will revolve around expanding physical availability of the Quest salty snacks platform. So, utilizing its “categorical leadership” for leverage, Quest Nutrition has made “increasing the physical availability” of products a significant initiative within the organization…and recently landed a Quest chips mainline snacking aisle test within a large mass retailer. And if proven successful, I believe it would create a massive “snowball effect” that leads to increased display support, merchandising everywhere, and even new sales channel penetration. Also, I run through what's causing the weak brand performance at Atkins and explain actions the company is taking to change it…especially against the backdrop of GLP-1 weight loss solutions. In my opinion, you're going to see weight management brands like Atkins (and others) get repositioned on the right side of GLP-1 second-order effects through both product innovation (e.g. Atkins strong)...but most of the “innovation” will come in the targeted communication marketing strategies. And then, OWYN had quarterly retail takeaway growth of 24% YoY...coming from a balance of distribution gains and velocity growth. Moreover, OWYN has significantly accelerated performance across all major sales channels (including ecommerce) and all key retail customers. Finally, I'll explore again this “eat or be eaten” fork in the road for Simply Good Foods. While the more probable scenario in the next year is that SMPL acquires another middle market convenient nutrition brand that fits into their strategic focus…wouldn't it be interesting if a Big CPG name like PepsiCo acquired the portfolio?

With protein becoming a kind of "holy water" that instantly anoints any food or beverage with a health halo…it was only a matter of time before it converged with carbonated soft drinks, right? But what if I told you that I've been trying to make protein soda a “billion-dollar idea” since 2016? Originally approached by the patent holder almost a decade ago, my attempts at influencing large beverage portfolios went nowhere fast. And it makes sense in hindsight…as within a low household penetration beverage category (like protein drinks), market participants (back then) obviously wanted to bring in new buyers, but the more meaningful solved challenge involved expanding distribution. Even a few years later, within content basically no one watched…I started mentioning how PepsiCo should make “protein dirty sodas” but letting Muscle Milk leverage its carbonated soft drinks flavor IP. But fast forward another few years…protein is winning in most places across the grocery store, accessibility of protein RTD beverages has become almost ubiquitous within the market, and maybe most importantly the “dirty soda” movement exploded thanks to TikTok. And before you think I'm humbly bragging about my place within the protein soda category creation, one that will likely never make the future Wikipedia page…just know that I wholeheartedly believe being right too early is indistinguishable from being wrong! Instead, I provided that quick introductory story to set the stage for our conversation with the CEO of Don't Quit, Mark French, who's new protein soda is launching nationwide in Walmart, Albertsons, CVS, and others this month. And alongside this refreshed strategic focus of delivering healthier, clean, great tasting protein in a variety of different formats…we got an insightfully diverse POV on the functional beverage marketplace from Chris Van Dusen, a private equity group Senior Partner involved in delivering capital solutions for late-stage startup and growth companies like Don't Quit. Follow the Pour Decisions Podcast!Also, an extra special thanks to Cognizin, for not only being the Title Sponsor of The Beverage Forum 2025...but supporting this awesome piece of content!

Consumers are no longer quietly adapting to market conditions…they're actively reshaping the grocery industry. By rewriting the rules of how, where, and why they shop…it has created a grocery reality that demands a smarter, faster, and more flexible strategic approach. But the message to grocery retailers is clear…keep up or get left behind. And the need for customer-centric strategies is arguably most evident in merchandising…and more specifically within the beverage landscape (where innovation has been abundant). In fact, the beverage aisles (and coolers) are overflowing with boundary pushing opportunity…spanning flavor innovation to new category creation and even categorical mashups. Furthermore, there's a powerful movement happening…one that's packing beverages with functional ingredients previously only seen across the supplement aisle. No longer confined to niche brands targeting gym rats and granola heads…functional beverages have become household staples. But blindly pushing this exciting beverage industry era forward can sometimes cause potential challenges…which was the central topic of our dynamic conversation with the VP of National Merchandising at Albertsons Companies, Buster Houston. Yet, as you'll quickly notice…it's grocery industry leaders like Buster that really lean into these challenges, ensuring customers are wowed while also acting as helpful consultants to beverage brands vying for market share. Follow the Pour Decisions Podcast!Also, an extra special thanks to Cognizin for not only being the Title Sponsor of The Beverage Forum 2025...but supporting this awesome piece of content!