Podcasts about climate prediction center

Send us a textThis week on the Montana Outdoor Podcast your host Downrigger Dale talks to Matt Rosencrans, Climate Testbed Director with the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center. Matt used all the National Weather Service's incredible technology and put together a special winter weather forecast just for all our podcast listeners. So what did he come up with? What is the winter weather forecast for each region of Montana? Well, you are gonna have to listen to the podcast to find out. Now depending on what you like to do in Montana's outdoors I think you might like what he says here. Again, that is depending on what you like to do in Montana's Outdoors. What we do know that all of you will for sure like about this podcast is just how thorough Matt is. This is one very smart guy that lives and breathes the weather for not just Montana, but for all across the United States. Now, in addition to giving you his winter weather prediction for Montana he also used all his incredible high-tech gear and knowledge to give a prediction of what the weather will be like across the State for this Spring and Summer! Yeah, we are gonna take you way into the future of Montana's weather. What is also VERY cool is that Matt explains a lot of just how he can put together these predictions. So, are you gonna get to go ice fishing sooner than you thought this year? How is the skiing going to be in the State? This Podcast will answer those and your other Montana weather questions. Yeah, you are gonna find this one super interesting for sure. So, what are you waiting for, hop in our weather time machine, push play and get to listening!Links:To learn more about the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center and its history, click here. By the way, pretty interesting to learn that Thomas Jefferson was one of the nation's first climatologists!For links to the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center's different national weather predictions and maps click here. For northwestern Montana click here or call (406) 329-4840.For northern and central Montana click here or call (406) 453-2081.For northeastern Montana click here or call (406)228-4042.For southeastern Montana click here or call (406) 652-0851.Questions for Matt Rosencrans? Click here to send him an email.Click here to tell Rigger what you thought of this episode or to give him your ideas for future podcasts!Remember to tune in to our live radio show, The Montana Outdoor Radio Show, every Saturday morning from 6:00AM to 8:00AM. The show airs on 30 radio stations all across the State of Montana. You can get a list of our affiliated radio stations on our website. You can also listen to recordings of past shows, get fishing and and hunting information and much more at that website or on our Facebook page. You can also watch our radio show there as well.

In this episode, Scott explains the predictions for the 2024 hurricane season and visits with a special guest – Matthew Rosencrans, the Climate Testbed Director at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center – to get his top three things a local official should know about this season. Unsurprisingly, being prepared is one thing. Local officials from almost every part of the state should tune in to learn about one you might not know!Further information:National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's Hurricane Preparedness Website and 2024 Season PredictionsColorado State University Climate Prediction Center 2024 forecastFederal Emergency Management Agency's Hurricane Preparedness and Evacuation Planning WebsiteTexas Department of Emergency Management's Preparedness WebsiteTML Risk Pool's Hurricane Resources Web Page

NOAA recently released a seasonal outlook that shows much of the United States will likely experience a hotter than usual summer, including in Oregon. And, last year was already the hottest summer on record. What role is climate change playing in the seasonal outlook? How might they look different moving forward? We dig into these issues with Dan Collins, a meteorologist with the Climate Prediction Center.  

The 2024 hurricane season could be especially challenging for electric co-ops and their members. NOAA is predicting above-normal Atlantic hurricane activity with up to 25 named storms—a record high for its May forecast. Learn more from Matt Rosencrans, lead hurricane outlook forecaster with NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, and hear from Jeff Davis Electric Cooperative General Manager Mike Heinen about his co-op's efforts to strengthen its system against hurricane damage.

Forecasters at the NOAA's Climate Prediction Center are expecting an above-normal hurricane season, and new polling finds a majority of Republicans, Democrats, AND Independents support legislation mandating "lab-grown meat" labeling and other restrictions.

Houston Matters begins at 9 a.m. CT on 88.7FM or listen online. Join the discussion at 713-440-8870, talk@houstonmatters.org or @HoustonMatters.On Thursday's show: News broke yesterday that ConocoPhillips plans to buy Marathon Oil in an all-stock deal valued around $17.1 billion. We learn more about the deal and what it could mean for Houston and for energy prices.Also this hour: Atlantic hurricane season officially begins Saturday. Matt Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, walks us through what to expect in terms of major storms over the next several months.Then: We discuss how the latest Planet of the Apes film, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, explores legacy and how history is remembered, which is the subject of this month's installment of our film segment, The Bigger Picture.And we reflect on the life of Sam Houston, namely the final few years of it, which he spent in self-imposed exile in the pines of East Texas. It's the subject of Ron Rozelle's book Exiled: The Last Days of Sam Houston.Audio from today's show will be available after 11 a.m. CT. We also offer a free podcast here, on iTunes, Stitcher and other apps.

Justin Glisan, the state climatologist, provides updates on the current and upcoming weather forecasts, including precipitation totals, severe weather risks, and temperature outlooks for the next week. Madelynn Wuestenberg shares the Climate Prediction Center's forecasts for temperature and precipitation over different time periods, indicating near-normal conditions for Iowa in the short term. The drought situation in Iowa has significantly improved, with 66% of the state now out of drought conditions and only 20% experiencing moderate drought (D1) Dan Fillius discusses the impacts of the wet weather on weed control, highlighting the effectiveness of pre-emergent herbicides for some growers and the challenges of cultivation due to frequent rains. The conversation also touches on pest management, with Dan providing advice on identifying and controlling thrips and spider mites. Focused on the May 21st, 2024 tornado outbreak in Iowa that caused significant damage, especially in Greenfield where an EF3 or potentially EF4/EF5 tornado struck Justin and Dan commend the National Weather Service for their efforts in communicating severe weather warnings and express gratitude for Justin's timely email updates during the recent tornado event. Justin Glisan provided details on: The setup that led to the outbreak Number of tornado reports Widespread impacts of hail, straight-line winds, heavy rainfall the advanced forecasting capabilities that allowed warnings of the severe weather risk

Key points: Madelynn found a cicada in her driveway after returning from Missouri and sent a photo to an entomologist, who was excited as it could be a periodical cicada.  On May 16, 1997, Sioux City broke both its record high (91°F) and record low (33°F) temperatures for that date, which is highly unusual.  The upcoming week's forecast shows potential for wet weather, especially days 4-6, with around 1 inch of rain expected across most of Iowa. Next week should be warmer than average The 8-14 day climate outlook indicates slightly cooler than normal temperatures but nothing extremely cold. Normal temps for this time of year are highs of 72 and lows of 52. Recent rains have helped improve drought conditions in Iowa, with no more extreme drought (D3) remaining as of the latest update. Planting progress for crops is behind last year's pace but on track with 2015-2018 and ahead of 2022.  They discussed reasons why a rain system dissipated around I-35 in central Iowa the previous night, likely due to dry air Justin explained how meteorologists use models like the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) to analyze small-scale weather features.  Dan mentioned some phenological observations like winter rye heading out 1-2 weeks early this year. They discussed the difference between "equal chances" and "near normal" forecast terminology used by the Climate Prediction Center. Summary generated using combination of Claude.ai and Perplexity.ai

What in the Weather? podcast recording - February Iowa's wettest year and severe winter storm in 1993. Major winter storm brought heavy snow and freezing rain to Iowa in 1993, with totals ranging from 13-20 inches. Weather forecast and climate notables in Iowa. Dan Fillius asks Justin Glisan about the weather forecast for the coming week, with a focus on eastern Iowa. Glisan provides details on the expected precipitation, including a 10th of an inch across the state and a quarter to half an inch in eastern Iowa. In north central Iowa, the frost depth was shallow, around 5 inches, despite cold temperatures, indicating good infiltration. The National Weather Service measured unfrozen soil on top of the shallow frost depth in Johnston, just north of Des Moines. Glisan: Snowpack on ground reflects solar radiation, keeps temps cool. Winter weather patterns in Iowa. Dan Fillius and Justin Glisan discuss the coldest temperatures in Prem gar, Iowa, with negative 28 degrees on January 14th. Dan Fillius and Justin Glisan discuss the warmest winter on record in Iowa, with February being the fourth warmest, driest, and least snowy on record. Climate change and El Niño are contributing to the warming trend, with faster winter warming than summer warming and impacting jet stream patterns. Glisan and Dan Fillius discuss the possibility of a rapid shift from El Niño to La Niña in the upcoming summer months, with a 73% chance of ENSO neutral conditions and a 55% chance of La Niña in the July-September timeframe. Glisan provides an analogy to 2016, when a rapid shift from El Niño to lightning occurred, and suggests that near-normal to elevated precipitation potential may occur in California due to the shift. Randall Vos joins the show to discuss the impact of the unusual winter on fruit crops. Plant dormancy and chilling hours. Randall Vos explains the concept of chilling hours, which is how plants keep track of temperatures between 35-45°F to determine when to wake up from dormancy. Chilling hours are important for fruit varieties, with most requiring between 1000-1300 hours, depending on location. Randall Vos discusses the importance of choosing fruit tree cultivars adapted to the local climate, as warmer winters may require more chilling hours for proper growth. Randall Vos mentions that grape growers are looking for cultivars that break bud later to mitigate risk, with a 3-4 week difference in budbreak between grape varieties. Fruit tree cultivation and potential risks due to warm winter weather. Randall Vos expresses concern about early budbreak in blackberries due to warm temperatures, and mentions a new model (the Utah model) that predicts negative chilling hours when it gets hot. Randall Vos expresses low hopes for peach crop due to bud damage, while still having high hopes for sweet cherries. Randall expresses concern about the impact of warm winter weather on crops, particularly grapes which have an "insurance policy" to produce a secondary bud. Weather patterns and their impact on agriculture. Analogues to 2011-2012 drought and 2018-2019 wetness observed in Midwest weather history. Vegetable farmers dislike cold, wet springs the most. Weather forecasts and their impact on agriculture. Glisan and Dan discuss the Climate Prediction Center's seasonal outlooks, including the lack of a clear signal for precipitation or temperature across the upper Midwest, with a warm signal still present in the region. The March one-month outlook released about a week ago shows a bullseye of above average potential for precipitation west of Iowa and below average potential across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, with Iowa in the middle. Some Amish farmers prioritized other pressing chores over ice harvesting during cold snap.

Show Notes Host: Ryan Harris Guest: Matt Stein, CEO, Salient Predictions Description: The atmosphere is the main driver of our daily weather.  But it's the oceans, with its long-term thermodynamic memory, that drive our climate patterns from seasonal, to decadal, and beyond.  NOAA's Climate Prediction Center and an increasing number of private industry companies like Salient Predictions use signals in long-term ocean patterns, soil moisture, sea ice, and snow cover to make much longer predictions than what you might see on your daily weather app.  Such signals give us long-term oscillation patterns like El Nino, the Arctic Oscillation, and more.  And these companies are helping industries from energy, to agriculture, to insurance buy down sub-seasonal to seasonal environmental risk.  It's one of the frontiers in the weather and climate world where climate science meets data science head and where unique machine learning techniques are finding new signals in the noise of our chaotic climate. See Podcast Website for Complete Show Notes --- Send in a voice message: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/triplepoint/message

This week on the Montana Outdoor Podcast your host Downrigger Dale talks with Matthew Rosencrans in the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center. Matthew is the Climate Testbed Director in the Climate Prediction Center and knows a great deal about predicting the weather. In fact, he used to be one of the weather forecasters for the United States Airforce! Over the last few years, the National Weather Services Prediction Team has increased their average accuracy a great deal. So, on average how accurate are they? Listen now and find out! Downrigger talked to Matthew about what the weather outlook is for the rest of this winter here in Montana. Rigger and Matthew even went way beyond that and talked about what the weather looks like for the State this spring, summer, and fall. Is it good news or is it not looking so good as far as moisture and drought conditions? Are we in a El Niño or a La Niña? Do you know what those things are? Who named them that? How is the National Weather Service and their team of scientists like Matthew able to predict the weather that far out? No, it is not a crystal ball! How do storms like hurricanes get their names. Rigger and Mr. Rosencrans get into some incredible topics and most all those topics are all about things that will directly affect you! So, listen now to this week's Montana Outdoor Podcast!If you would like to learn more about the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center, click here. If you would like to learn more about the weather in your area:For northwestern Montana click here or call (406) 329-4840.For northern and central Montana click here or call (406) 453-2081.For northeastern Montana click here or call (406)228-4042.For southeastern Montana click here or call (406) 652-0851.As always if you have any suggestions for podcasts topics just click here to send an email to Downrigger Dale. Remember to tune in to our live radio show, The Montana Outdoor Radio Show, every Saturday morning from 6:00AM to 8:00AM. The show airs on 30 radio stations all across the State of Montana. You can get a list of our affiliated radio stations on our website. You can also listen to recordings of past shows, get fishing and and hunting information and much more at that website or on our Facebook page. You can also watch our radio show there as well.

Akron Is A Tech HubAkron has been designated a Regional Technology and Innovation Hub by the U.S. Department of Commerce, making it eligible for up to $70 million in federal funding. U.S. Sen. Sherrod Brown announced the selection from 31 hubs chosen out of nearly 400 applicants. Akron's hub will leverage its historical leadership in the rubber industry to pioneer the production of sustainable polymers, representing the next generation of rubber and plastics. The city will compete with other hubs for awards ranging from $20 million to $70 million, with five to ten hubs set to receive funding based on their development plans. Alongside the hub designation, Akron has been granted a $400,000 strategy development grant for the University of Akron and the Greater Akron Chamber, aimed explicitly at sustainable polymers.Avoid Lines at the PollsTwo more weeks of Early Voting before the November 7 election!Voting early is easy peasy at #SummitCounty's Early Vote Center, located at 500 Grant Street in Akron.You can vote any day this week from 8:00am - 5:00pm. Starting next Monday, October 30, hours expand into the evening + next weekend.Not sure what's on your ballot? Check it out here: https://tinyurl.com/MyBallotSummitWinter ForcastThe National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center suggests that Ohio may experience milder temperatures resembling those of the Carolinas in the upcoming winter months. The forecast attributes this change to the presence of El Niño during the winter season. Long-term weather pattern predictors anticipate a 40-50% chance of warmer-than-usual temperatures in December, January, and February, especially in Central and Northern Ohio. Southern Ohio also has a 33-40% chance of experiencing temperatures above the average for this period. Free Pet Food and SuppliesNo tricks, just treats!

Corey is back this week and we're talking about the big temperature swings for this month. His Model Minute segment will tell us if we have more cold air or more rain on the way. This week's Weather School is about the Climate Prediction Center. We decided to pull out the ole Winter Weather Myths sheet this week and discuss the supposed Winter weather predictors we're starting to see going all around the internet. We have a few interesting "in other news" tidbits, and Corey gives us the Weather Word of the Week! ~~~~~~~~~~ Check out our website at: stormdarweather.com Support us on Patreon at: patreon.com/stormdarweather Follow us on Instagram at: instagram.com/stormdarweathermedia

Welcome to the weekend!This is Stephen Colbert from the Gazette Digital News Desk, and I'm here with your update for Saturday, August 26th, and Sunday, August 27th, 2023.According to the National Weather Service, temperatures on Saturday will be partly sunny, with a high near 83, cooling to a low around 54 Saturday evening.Sunday will be sunny, with a high near 81. Sunday night will remain clear, with a low around 57.Bondholders, bankruptcy trustee seek slowdown in Mercy hospital saleAlthough Mercy Iowa City wants an expeditious sale of its assets — after the 150-year-old hospital filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy this month — its bondholders and creditors this week asked a judge to tap the brakes to give them time for due diligence and to maximize the “value of the sale.”“(Mercy's) proposed bidding procedures are premised upon an exceptionally abridged timeline,” the hospital's primary bondholders argued in court filings Thursday, referencing Mercy's request for a Sept. 19 deadline for other bids to compete with the University of Iowa's $20 million opening offer.Chief Judge Thad Collins on Friday agreed to move a hearing on the timeline and sale process from Aug. 31 to Sept. 13 — which is just a week before the Sept. 19 bid deadline Mercy wants him to approve.Mercy didn't object to the new hearing date, but Mercy attorney Dan Simon said his client still will be pushing for an expedited process.Extreme drought develops in northeast IowaDrought conditions in Iowa have worsened amid a lack of rainfall and a heat wave that has stretched for days.A large area of extreme drought has developed in several northeast Iowa counties, according to a U.S. Drought Monitor weekly report on Thursday. That is the second-worst classification of four the agency uses to denote drought conditions.The counties included in the new severe drought classification include Black Hawk, Grundy, Butler, Bremer, Chickasaw, Floyd, and a small eastern portion of Allamakee County.The typically wettest months of the year have passed, and relatively heavy rainfall in the first half of August did little to improve the drought in Iowa. That led the federal Climate Prediction Center to reverse its rosier outlook for drought and predict that a similar dryness will persist in the state for the next two months.About 47 percent of the state's topsoil had sufficient moisture for growing crops as of Sunday, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.President Biden approves Iowa disaster declaration for Mississippi River flood damagePresident Joe Biden on Friday approved a disaster declaration and relief for seven Iowa counties that sustained a combined estimated $6.3 million in damages from spring flooding along the Mississippi River.Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds requested the major disaster declaration earlier this month. Rapid snow melt caused severe flooding in the seven Iowa counties between April 24 and May 13, resulting in significant damage to public infrastructure and private property.Seven gauges measuring river height along the Iowa side of the river broke top five record crests.The declaration makes available federal funding to state, tribal, and eligible local governments and certain nonprofits on a cost-sharing basis for emergency work and the repair or replacement of facilities damaged by flooding in Allamakee, Clayton, Des Moines, Dubuque, Jackson, Lee, and Scott counties.Have a good weekend, everyone.

The Team Leader for the Seasonal Hurricane Prediction Center and Director of the Climate Test Bed at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, Matt Rosencrans, joins Jay and Ron for an in depth discussion about what the hot water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico mean for the eastern seaboard of the United States this winter. Will El Nino combine with this hot water streaming north in the Gulf Stream to warm us up in January, or bury us in an avalanche of snow?This conversation is great for those whose livelihoods are dependent on the weather or those who think learning about science is just really cool!!!

Governor Parson declared a drought alert in Missouri, leading to water conservation efforts. Meteorologist Brad Pugh from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center discusses the severity of drought conditions and provides an outlook for the summer months. The impact on agriculture and water supplies is also addressed.   Photo by Marie Hubert Psaila/Abaca/Sipa USA

It's hard to believe it, but June 1 marks the first day of Hurricane Season for 2023. NOAA forecasters with the Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service, predict near-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic this year. On Thursday's Mornings with Eric and Brigitte, meteorologist, Erik Salna joins us to share some details on the 2023 hurricane season outlook and to give us some tips on how to be prepared as the season begins.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A long La Nina is finally coming to a close. But that said, the Pacific is rousting itself. What might 2023's El Nino look like for California and the rest of the United States? This week, KVMR's Al Stahler looked to answer this question and more by speaking with the director of the national Climate Prediction Center, Dr David Dewitt.

This week Corey and Rando talk about the recent sleet event and how the well above normal temps today took care of the remnants. Big rain coming? It's looking like it and we go into details with the Model Minute. This week's Weather School is about the Climate Prediction Center. We've got several interesting "in other news" tidbits, and Corey gives us the Weather Word of the Week! ~~~~~~~~~~ Check out our website at: stormdarweather.com Support us on Patreon at: patreon.com/stormdarweather Follow us on Instagram at: instagram.com/stormdarweathermedia

This year La Niña returns for the third consecutive winter, driving warmer-than-average temperatures for the Southwest and along the Gulf Coast and eastern seaboard, according to NOAA's U.S. Winter Outlook released today by the Climate Prediction Center — a division of the National Weather Service. Starting in December 2022 through February 2023, NOAA predicts drier-than-average conditions across the South with wetter-than-average conditions for areas of the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes, northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest. “The hardworking forecasters at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center produce timely and accurate seasonal outlooks and short-term forecasts year-round,” said Michael Farrar, Ph.D., director of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. “NOAA's new supercomputers are enabling us to develop even better, more detailed forecast capabilities, which we'll be rolling out in the coming years.” NOAA forecasters, in collaboration with the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS), continue to monitor extreme, ongoing drought conditions that have persisted in the Western U.S. since late 2020, as well as parts of the central U.S. where historic low-water conditions are currently present. “Drought conditions are now present across approximately 59% of the country, but parts of the Western U.S and southern Great Plains will continue to be the hardest hit this winter,” said Jon Gottschalck, chief, Operational Prediction Branch, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. “With the La Niña climate pattern still in place, drought conditions may also expand to the Gulf Coast.” Temperature The greatest chance for warmer-than-average conditions are in western Alaska, and the Central Great Basin and Southwest extending through the Southern Plains. Warmer-than-average temperatures are also favored in the Southeastern U.S. and along the Atlantic coast. Below-normal temperatures are favored from the Pacific Northwest eastward to the western Great Lakes and the Alaska Panhandle. Precipitation Wetter-than-average conditions are most likely in western Alaska, the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. The greatest chances for drier-than-average conditions are forecast in portions of California, the Southwest, the southern Rockies, southern Plains, Gulf Coast and much of the Southeast. The remainder of the U.S. falls into the category of equal chances for below-, near-, or above-average seasonal total precipitation. Drought Widespread extreme drought continues to persist across much of the West, the Great Basin, and the central-to-southern Great Plains. Drought is expected to impact the middle and lower Mississippi Valley this winter. Drought development is expected to occur across the South-central and Southeastern U.S., while drought conditions are expected to improve across the Northwestern U.S. over the coming months. --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/carolinaweather/message

AGRIBUSINESS REPORT PODCAST – Guest: Brad Pugh is a meteorologist with the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center and talks about what drought is, how it develops, and what forecasters … Read More

On the latest episode of “Prep Talk,” Matthew Rosencrans, lead hurricane season outlook forecaster with NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, discusses the science behind the outlook for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season. He reveals what sparked his interest in meteorology and how he got started in field. Rosencrans also shares how NOAA fits into the disaster cycle and how they work with emergency management agencies when disasters occur. He has experienced a variety of severe weather events and discusses how it shaped his outlook of the future.

This week we remember the devastating Joplin tornado which happened 11 years ago today. There's been a lot of hailers in the past couple of weeks and some interesting things like a MCV (listen to the pod to find out what that is!) Pollen is still out there but the predominant ones have changed. We brought back the Tropics at least for this week due to a disturbance in the North-Central Gulf. This week's Weather School is about the Climate Prediction Center. Corey and Rando have a bunch of "in other news" tidbits and Shera has a something special for her segment! She also gives us the Weather Word of the Week! ~~~~~~~~~~ Check out our website at: stormdarweather.com Support us on Patreon at: patreon.com/stormdarweather Follow us on Instagram at: instagram.com/stormdarweathermedia

Last year, the 2021 Arizona Monsoon was one for the books bringing several storms, some hail, and lots of much-needed rain to Arizona. What are the chances that Arizona would be lucky enough to have two good Monsoons in a row? According to the Climate Prediction Center, the odds look pretty good. Climate Prediction Center outlook is for odds tilted in favor of above-normal precipitation for the lower deserts of Arizona this monsoon season. For northern Arizona, there are equal chances for above, near, or below-normal precipitation. Monsoon Season runs from June 15th through September 30th each year but usually,... For the written story, read here >> https://www.signalsaz.com/articles/arizona-monsoon-2022-forecast/

SPEAKERSJim du Bois, Kenny BlumenfeldJim du Bois 00:00Predictions, prognostications, and Punxsutawney Phil? This is Way Over Our Heads. It's a weather and climate podcast. I'm Jim du Bois, Kenny Blumenfeld's a climatologist. Kenny, how are you doing on this Groundhog Day?Kenny Blumenfeld 00:15You know, it's a nice brisk, cold morning. Rode into work on the bicycle and didn't regret it. But understand why people would if they didn't have the right gear. How are you, Jim?Jim du Bois 00:26You know, Kenny, I'm doing well. I agree with you. It was a little chilly this morning. But I found it kind of bracing in a way when I stepped outside. So, it gave me energy. I don't know if...it sounds like from what I'm telling you, Kenny, maybe, maybe I'm starting to have a little affinity for winter.Kenny Blumenfeld 00:44Well, I mean, you know, it's about time. You've been here how many years?Jim du Bois 00:48My entire life. But...Kenny Blumenfeld 00:49Yeah. Well, you know it's good. At some point, you stop fighting and you just accept. Jim du Bois 00:55Right, right. Kenny Blumenfeld 00:56You know, you gotta live with this sucker for five months out of the year, most years. So, you know, you can either enjoy those five months and make peace with the fact that you know, you might need some extra layers. Or you can...I can't imagine the alternative. Can't imagine spending five months in...Jim du Bois 01:18In lockdown?Jim du Bois 01:20Yeah, misery.Kenny Blumenfeld 01:21I can definitely imagine five months in lockdown. Maybe previously I couldn't imagine that.Jim du Bois 01:26Exactly, exactly. Well, Kenny, I'm doing my best to embrace winter and I really need to do that because if you are to believe Punxsutawney Phil, he is the groundhog who comes out from his den as legend has it every February 2. He's done so since 1887 in Gobblers Knob, which I just love the name of that. That's just fabulous. But Punxsutawney Phil emerged today, saw his shadow, which means if you believe in such things six more weeks of winter. So that's why I went out this morning and I opened my arms and just felt winter all about my body because I know if Punxsutawney Phil is correct, I better get used to it for another six weeks.Kenny Blumenfeld 02:12I mean, I was out this morning, and the Sun was starting to shine, but I couldn't find my shadow. I wonder what that's about?Jim du Bois 02:19Well, apparently, from what I understand, it doesn't always matter if the Sun is out or if it's an overcast day because I guess on occasion, Punxsutawney Phil has seen his shadow on days where according to the climate records, it was overcast in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, and there have been other days when he has emerged from his den and not seen his shadow but according to the climate records, it was a bright sunny day, so I guess it all depends. But anyway, we almost didn't have the traditional Groundhog Day this year because Milltown Mel who apparently is the groundhog who has served as Punxsutawney Phil for multiple years, passed away recently and as of yesterday, according to NPR, they were scrambling to find his replacement and weren't sure that they would in time for the usual event to take place this morning. But they found a stand-in. Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow and the rest is history.Kenny Blumenfeld 03:22I'm gonna, I'm gonna just do a timeout here. Jim du Bois 03:24Okay. Yeah. Kenny Blumenfeld 03:25Real quick, Jim. I think that Milltown Mel is a different, that's a different groundhog. Jim du Bois 03:25Oh, it is...I totally, okay maybe I confused myself.Kenny Blumenfeld 03:32I think it is. I think, I'm on the NPR story. And it's basically there's several different cities that have kind of their version of Punxsutawney Phil.Jim du Bois 03:43Oh, you are correct. Kenny Blumenfeld 03:46Punxsutawney Phil is alive. It's that Milltown Mel croaked.Jim du Bois 03:51Well, then that's my mistake because now as I skim further in the story, I see that he is associated with Milltown, New Jersey, and has absolutely nothing to do with Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania. So, I digress. But I guess it serves the point that apparently this phenom of the ability of groundhogs to predict the winter weather isn't limited to just one city in one state. This is, this is a, perhaps it's even a worldwide phenom. We don't know.Kenny Blumenfeld 04:23Right. And then the Groundhog Day tradition, I think that Punxsutawney Phil is the longest-running one in the US. You know, where this particular groundhog became the winter spokesperson for the rest of the country is beyond me. But let's just be honest here, Jim. With the forecast being either a mild winter or six weeks more of winter, on February 2, to Minnesotans, that's a little like saying okay, you can have vanilla ice cream, or you can have the one that's not strawberry. If we only have six weeks of winter, that's actually a pretty warm winter. So, to us, what's the difference? Jim du Bois 05:05Good point, Kenny.Kenny Blumenfeld 05:07What's the difference? If our winter's over on March 15, we got off easy. Jim du Bois 05:12Exactly, exactly.Kenny Blumenfeld 05:13And that's even in light of, you know, the way that the climate has changed. Certainly, we have had winters that have ended before March 15. But you know, you also got to remember the Thunder Blizzard 2018. We had heavy snow in mid-April in 2019 and 2020 in Minnesota, and some listeners may recall that on May 1, May 2, somewhere in there, in 2013, we had over a foot of snow in southeastern Minnesota in the area, you know, around Northfield and Rochester in towards the Red Wing area. So yeah, if we only get six weeks of winter, good for us. And I don't want to pick on Phil, I mean, this brings up a lot, a lot of questions. Jim. Right? A lot of questions. Okay. So, if a groundhog, does a groundhog actually see its shadow? And if a groundhog sees its shadow does it know it sees its shadow? Do groundhogs know what shadows are? Jim du Bois 05:59Yeah, you know, I think the problem is you just...Kenny Blumenfeld 06:25I think it's a fair question.Jim du Bois 06:26It's a very fair question. And I guess the followers of Punxsutawney Phil just go on blind faith because I believe his handlers are known as the Inner Circle. It's a very elite group of people in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania. They're the guys who wear the top hats that you see with Punxsutawney Phil. And one of them is able, apparently, to speak Groundhogese. So, it's not only that Punxsutawney Phil does or doesn't allegedly see his shadow, he also engages in a conversation with this guy from the Inner Circle, and apparently goes into greater detail about his predictions for the weather. So, who knows?Kenny Blumenfeld 07:09You know, I figure while he's at it, they should get his opinions on other things.Jim du Bois 07:13There you go. Maybe he can fix the political mess we're in?Kenny Blumenfeld 07:17Yeah. Or, you know, who's gonna get the most golds at the Olympics? I, I think that you know, I'm glad that they do this because it is a, it's a cherished tradition. Listeners should know it is total malarkey. The National Weather Service did an assessment of recent forecasts on a national basis. So, this was basically during the 2010s. Punxsutawney Phil's batting average was just under, I think it was coming in around 400.Jim du Bois 07:56Not even a coin flip. Kenny Blumenfeld 07:58Yeah, right. So basically, this notion that the groundhog sees its shadow and makes an accurate prediction about the remainder of winter is actually less accurate than random chance. So, okay, so have fun, enjoy it. I would not make plans specifically based on it. But you know, in a way this gets at kind of our larger need, this larger desire that we have to understand things that are out of our control. And the weather, especially late in winter, and early in spring is one of those things. You know, people can feel better about the planting season coming up if they understand that the weather is going to be favorable for it. And so, it's a nice tradition. I just hope people understand it's completely non-scientific. And I think most people do get that.Jim du Bois 08:54Absolutely. And we should point out, too, that the science of predicting the weather is, I guess, in the scheme of human existence on this earth, a relatively recent phenomenon because, correct me if I'm wrong, Kenny, but we really didn't even understand what warm fronts and cold fronts were until the early part of the 20th century, correct?Kenny Blumenfeld 09:14Yeah, yeah, that is correct. And, you know, in Phil's defense, there are professionals with advanced degrees in atmospheric science who try their hand at seasonal forecasting, and I can't say that they're that much better than Phil. I mean, you know, they, obviously there's nuance, and they, this is the Climate Prediction Center, but they're not the only ones, they're the most famous ones through the you know, mainstream will probably recognize those maps that say it's going to be above normal or below normal for temperature, precipitation. There are also private sector, long range forecasters who work for, you know, they work for the various industries that would really care, energy sector and agricultural sector. There are commodities forecasters who try to, you know, get a good sense of what's going to happen in the next several months or in the coming season. It's hard work. I mean, that's just, it's really hard. And it's not only because forecasting the weather in general is hard, it's just because it's, it's such a, it's such a complex system. I mean, and think about the things that we're looking for. I mean, so let's say, Jim, we're talking about the weather three months out, and there's a strong indication that it's going to be a cool period and a wet period. And this is hypothetical. But now, just imagine that, that it's largely correct. And it is, you know, generally, below normal temperatures, and fairly wet, but it's punctuated by an astronomically hot, you know, 15-day run of, you know, warm and very dry weather. Okay, so then, was it right? Was the forecast, right? You know, was it? There's so much nuance in here, too, and what people experience and remember, is often different from what the facts are. So, for example, last winter, the winter of 2020, to 2021, making sure I get my years straight here, it was a warm winter. It was, you know, and we were actually on our way to one of the warmest winters on record, probably top 10 territory. But there was a two-week interlude during February where it was very cold. And it, you know, you and I talked about this, but temperatures were 20 degrees, 25 degrees below normal on average for a period of almost two weeks. And so that's actually what people tend to remember about last winter, and they don't so much remember the fact that it was actually, you know, 80% of the season was mild. They don't remember that so much. They remember the piercingly cold outbreak in February. So, it's interesting. It's hard work to make those forecasts, and you're right, just forecasting in general, is really a, I mean, you know, the old joke is that Aristotle coined the term meteorology and, you know, within a couple hours, someone asked him what the weekend was going to be like. But truthfully, forecasting is a relatively recent endeavor, and really got kind of serious in the 20th century.Jim du Bois 12:45And we should point out that the accuracy of forecasts has improved dramatically, particularly since the 1950s. We actually have some stats. I have one here that in the mid-50s, the 36-hour National Weather Service--then the US Weather Bureau--forecast was about 20% accurate. By 2014, that 36-hour forecast was accurate over 80% of the time. Very similar for the 72-hour forecast. In 1975, 25% accuracy. 2014, 70%. So, we've made major strides in the last 40 to 60 years. Is this, Kenny, due to the fact that we now have supercomputers that can crunch numbers, and we didn't have access to that prior to say the mid-1950s. Kenny Blumenfeld 13:37Yeah, that's a great point, Jim. And I would say that it's a combination of things. I mean, one is forecasters are now better trained. Meteorology is still pretty much the same science, but the tools that meteorologists have to bring into forecasting, they're not just super computer based, but there's just other analytical tools, and there's concepts that really weren't available in the early decades of forecasting that are. So, you have some very well-trained forecasters who have some very good tools. We have much better, in many cases anyway, better monitoring and better data, better data quality, better programs to help analyze the data. So, it's just all in all a better system. And, you know, some of the stats that you read, I think it would be easy for a person to say, well, yeah, but they're still wrong, you know, X percent of the time. But there's been, you know, in our lifetime, and certainly in the lifetime of people who are older, there's been a huge change in the kinds of mistakes that are sort of acceptable in forecasting. And one thing that you know, some of the younger listeners might not even be aware of is that it used to be really common for a forecast on a day to, you know, completely miss the potential for some kind of a cataclysm or a disaster and you know, it wasn't like it happened all the time. But sometimes, you know, forecasters would know that it could rain today, but they didn't foresee tornadoes, or they said that it would be partly cloudy, but you ended up with a flash flood. And even in the 1980s, we had some phenomena where it was not supposed to snow, and then we got a lot. Or in 1984, there was this surprise blizzard that really wasn't particularly well forecast in western Minnesota and killed a lot of people. And those kinds of things really don't happen anymore. And now, there's more of the other kind of error where maybe people are expecting severe weather or expecting floods, and they don't materialize where the snowstorm, you know, is forecast to hit, but instead, it ends up 40 or 50 miles away. And that can really upset people because they make plans based on that. But it's a totally different kind of error from what we used to get. I mean, now, you know, forecasters largely can see most of the big weather events several days out. And they generally make accurate forecasts on them, with the exception of, you know that very close geographic specificity that's still kind of hard to resolve. And so ,you still see those types of mistakes. But we're sort of done with the days where, you know, we expected it to be clear, and we ended up with huge downpours and damage, or the days where, you know, the forecast called for, you know, brisk winds and temperatures in the 20s but people ended up freezing to death with temperatures plunging, you know, well, well below zero. So, big changes, and you know now, the forecasters are often, they often have a pretty good handle on the general picture five days out. And when I was a kid in the 80s and 90s, early 90s, that was, you know, five days out was like a holy grail. It was a best guess. And it was definitely a guess at that time. And so, there's been huge improvements in forecasting, indeed.Jim du Bois 17:09Kenny, is it fair to say that forecasting may be a bit more challenging in areas with high variability, and I'm thinking like the Midwest, and maybe easier in places where there are large moderating influences like areas around an ocean. Any truth to that?Kenny Blumenfeld 17:27There's some truth to it. But I would be careful. There was a huge snowstorm this past, I guess it was the past weekend in Boston. Jim du Bois 17:35Yes, two feet of snow. Kenny Blumenfeld 17:37Two feet of snow. And that forecast was definitely a razor's edge type of forecast. You know, there's this big, explosive low pressure system, tracking over the ocean, not too far away from Cape Cod, you know, 100 miles or so from Cape Cod. But its position really, really mattered. Because that determined where the precipitation cut-off would be, and where the precipitation, you know, wouldn't go. And so with those sort of razor's edge forecasts, we've seen, you know, areas in the East Coast that are expecting a foot, foot and a half a snow, and they end up with six inches, and everybody's mad, or they end up with two inches. So, they do have some of the same issues as us. But the ocean does produce a moderating influence. I would say one of the bigger factors that makes the weather easy or hard to forecast is, aside from the variability, which is one piece of it, is the kind of complexity of the general weather patterns. So, for example, Hawaii, doesn't really have very much complexity. Most days, the Sun comes out, especially on the sunny side of the islands, they've kind of a sunnier side and the cloudier side, depending on if you're up the slope, going up, the slope with the winds are going down the slope with the winds. The winds in Hawaii are usually out of the east. So usually, the west sides are very, very bright and sunny and dry, and the east sides are kind of wet. In any case, the weather there doesn't change all that much. And it's fairly simple. They don't get low pressure systems frequently, they usually just have kind of random heating from, you know, the topography and from the patchy sunlight that's there every day. So, you can pretty accurately forecast in most of Hawaii almost any day of the year, you know, sunny until early afternoon with a chance of isolated showers late in the day or by mid-afternoon. And that's a fine forecast almost any day of the year for most of Hawaii. And so, it's a little harder to have huge errors there. And another type of influence that I think is important is, you know, here in the Midwest, and also on the East Coast, we have a lot of these very sharp fronts that move through bringing in, you know, really cold air from northern Canada. And those are those sorts of razor's edge type of situations where there's a sharp cut-off on where the precipitation is and isn't in the path of the weather system is going to be really important to the success of any forecast. But out in the western US, a cold front is a different animal, because when the winds come out of the, you know, when the winds come out of the west in Seattle, they're just coming off the Pacific Ocean. It's not the same kind of airmass transition that we have here. And they tend to get these very broad areas of precipitation that might be, you know, 1000 miles long or wide. And it's just much harder to make big mistakes when you're dealing with a huge mass of ocean moisture. So, I'd say complexity or simplicity of the weather pattern, which does get at the variability. And then whether the kinds of things that you're forecasting are generally very geographically focused. So being right or wrong is kind of a matter of miles. So that's one thing versus these larger kind of broad systems where, you know, you can easily forecast that it's going to rain because there's a swath of rain that's the size of three states moving on shore. So yeah, there's some differences here. And I would say cutting your teeth as a forecaster in the Midwest is probably a good way to get used to the real difficult type of weather where there's a lot of geographic specificity, there's a lot of sharp changes, and as you pointed out, there's a lot of variability. Changes from, you know, week to week, day to day even.Jim du Bois 21:53Well, we will talk more about forecasting in a future episode. But for now, I think it's safe to say rely on the science, rely on the professional forecasters, and don't put a lot of faith in a rodent.Kenny Blumenfeld 22:07That's a great, that's a great statement. Jim, I support that.Jim du Bois 22:11All right, Kenny, great talking to you as always, and we'll check in with you soon.Kenny Blumenfeld 22:16Very good. Thanks, Jim.Jim du Bois 22:17This is Way Over Our Heads. It's a weather and climate podcast. I'm Jim du Bois, Kenny Blumenfeld's a climatologist. We'll catch you next time.

It's not quite winter — just yet, at least.But it is ski season. And snow is beginning to pile up in the mountains.In this week's episode of the Peak Northwest podcast, hosts Jamie Hale and Jim Ryan offer a preview of Oregon's ski season.Some highlights:Jamie and Jim discuss how the COVID-19 pandemic is expected to affect the ski season.We relay the Climate Prediction Center's Mount Hood forecast for December 2021 to February 2022.We break down what's new at Mount Hood resorts and at Mt. Bachelor this season.We provide tips for traveling to and from the mountain — and what to pack in your car. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

Guests: Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA's Climate Prediction Center and Greg Peters, author of Our National Forests: Stories from America's Most Important Public Lands.

An area representing one-third of the value of food produced in the United States remains mired in drought, including a stubborn area of Illinois that has pulled through with some surprising results this growing season. Hear from farmers Julie and Marshall Newhouse, along with Brad Pugh, meteorologist with the Climate Prediction Center in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Guest: Tom Di LibertoIt's baaack!! The NOAA Climate Prediction Center recently announced that La Nina has returned and will likely remain with us throughout the 2021-2022 winter season. But what exactly does that mean for us? For the globe? Luckily, we have someone who can help shed some light on its potential impacts. Tom Di Liberto is a meteorologist at Collabralink Technologies, and throughout his career, he has been researching, forecasting, and blogging about ENSO events for NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. Today, we'll shed light on how these events form and discuss if climate change is impacting them. Plus, we'll touch on the upcoming UN Climate Change Conference known as COP26, which could impact climate change policies across the globe.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Conversation with Dr. Gary Schnitkey, University of Illinois on farm budgets with increasing input costs for the 2022 growing season. Then talk to Brad Pugh, operational drought lead, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center about the winter prediction released late last week.

The 2021 Atlantic hurricane season is half-way through and, like 2020, is expected to be another above-normal Atlantic hurricane season as estimated by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. As of September 14, 2021, there have been over a dozen named storms, including three major hurricanes, Grace, Ida, and Larry, that reached Category 3 status or higher. Climate computer models predict that rising ocean temperatures—warm water being fuel for hurricanes—impact storm activity; but does this mean that as our planet warms, hurricanes are actually becoming stronger and more destructive? Alok Patel speaks with climate scientists and a hurricane researcher to get inside the anatomy of tropical storms, and to better understand what the evidence shows, and what we can expect for the future.

SPEAKERSJim du Bois, Kenny Blumenfeld Jim du Bois 00:00Ah, it's September. This is Way Over Our Heads. It's a weather and climate podcast. I'm Jim du Bois. Kenny Blumenfeld's a climatologist. Kenny, my goodness, the switch has been thrown. It was 51 degrees in my backyard when I woke up this morning. Kenny Blumenfeld 00:18Yeah, you're right. I mean, it's just like that first day of school whether right? Jim du Bois 00:22Right. Kenny Blumenfeld 00:22Although it's not really the first day of school in a lot of places but has that feeling that you get after Labor Day where, yeah, it's actually chilly. I woke up and I thought, oh, my goodness, I have to wear long sleeves biking into work today. Jim du Bois 00:37The temperature this morning was 34 degrees somewhere in Minnesota. And I can't remember where, Bemidji? Or was it, was it Hibbing? I can't remember, my goodness. Kenny Blumenfeld 00:47So, it's okay. Because what's interesting is the various media personalities will often go through the various airports that report generally hourly. And so, you can get kind of real time temperature data from them. What's interesting is in the climate office, we generally don't include those as valid readings. So, there might be an airport, for example, Grand Rapids, or maybe Big Fork or something like that that reports a really low temperature. We wait until, and I think you know about this, Jim, the daily temperature and precipitation readers who use a little higher quality instrumentation that's more standardized, we wait for their data to come in. And that's usually not until the next morning, although sometimes it's the same morning, depending on what time they take their observation. So, it'll be a few hours before we know what the lowest temperature around Minnesota was. But you're right, here on Monday, the 13th of September, we definitely had some northern Minnesota airport stations that were in the 30s. The Ely airport, even at 8am, was still in the 30s, for example. So, well, you can get frost just about any time of year way up north but we're definitely entering that that frost season in northern Minnesota. Jim du Bois 02:11Well, Kenny, you and I have talked about this before in previous episodes. And it always seems that right after the State Fair, right after Labor Day, that somehow a switch is thrown, and it goes from...rather abruptly I might add some times, from summer to fall. And we certainly have noticed that waking up some mornings when there's been a certain crispness in the air that wasn't there in late August. And today was the day it really kind of hit me in the, in the face when I got up this morning and I thought it is downright chilly this morning. And there was a lot of dew on the grass, so it was kind of damp. But I thought this has not only the feel but kind of the smell of fall too. Kenny Blumenfeld 02:53Oh, the smell of fall. I love it. And you know pretty soon, and maybe even this morning, walk along by the creek or by an area lake, and you'll see that steam rising off of it. That's the, ooohhh, that's, that's, that's a good one. Because what that is, is the warmer water left over from the hot summer, you know, in any summer. But this summer in particular, we didn't have much water, so it was easy for it to get warm. And then you see that steam because that's the water essentially, the warm water, basically being evaporated into the cooler air. And the way that that works is really interesting. The water essentially warms the air right above it. And then that warm air then pulls some of the water off of the surface and puts it into the atmosphere as humidity. So, you see that steam, and then it, and then it very quickly saturates that air right above the, right above the water. So, you see this steam coming off, and it's a sign that your water is cooling down fairly rapidly, in fact, and we tend to lose a lot of standing water, you know, basically, through early November from about early, early, mid-September right into early November, you lose a lot to evaporation. But what you're, what you're observing, Jim is, you know, it's all those terms that people, I say a typical person slept through or tried not to pay attention to. But as you get into fall, the intensity and the duration of sunlight declines. And that shuts down--here's the big one, Jim--photosynthesis, and without, and remember, the easy way of thinking of photosynthesis is that's just sunlight, activating living things, plants, and when the photosynthesis shuts down because the sunlight intensity and duration isn't great enough, then the plants stop essentially sustaining themselves. So, all of those seasonal plants, hardwood trees and grasses in particular, and many crops, they just stop production. And once they stop production, they, they stop sharing moisture that they conduct through their various systems with the atmosphere, the atmosphere gets a little bit drier. We're not quite at that point yet. But on a good cool morning, you can certainly notice that, you know, some of the things have really slowed down. Jim du Bois 05:18Well, we did bid farewell to meteorological summer on August 31. We now of course are in meteorological fall. Astronomical fall still a little ways off for us. So Kenny, let's go back and look at the month of August. What was August like for us from a climate perspective? Kenny Blumenfeld 05:35Yeah, so August was another warm month. It was a good warm month, but it wasn't like June. But it was, you know, it was up there. And it had highly varied rainfall. So basically, if you lived in the southern part of the state and parts of western Minnesota, you actually did pretty well with precipitation during August, above normal from the Twin Cities West northwestward through Alexandria, all the way south to the Iowa border. Parts of far southeastern Minnesota got absolutely dumped on again. There actually, there's no drought in far southeastern Minnesota. And then, you know, kind of hit or miss areas in western and northwestern Minnesota also had above normal precipitation in August, but then a big swath of northeast Minnesota failed to have normal precipitation again. This was the area, you know, St. Louis and Lake and parts of Cook County, way up in far northeast Minnesota, where they struggled to get even two inches of precipitation. So uniformly, it was warm. across the state. There was actually more heat in terms of hot weather in northern Minnesota than in southern Minnesota. So for example, Jim, International Falls had eight days, 90 degrees or higher. So, you should have been in International Falls, Twin Cities only had four of those days during August. Rochester had none. So, it was an interesting kind of reversal of the geographic pattern of hot weather. You know, it really just had to do with the configuration of the high pressure and low pressure systems that were affecting us. But yeah, so it was kind of a hot month in northern Minnesota and more of a warm month in in southern Minnesota. And then it was very wet in parts of southern Minnesota, and very dry in northeast Minnesota. And that kind of capped off the whole summer. Is that where you're going to go next, ask about... Jim du Bois 07:34Absolutely. What was the summer of 2021 like for us in Minnesota? Kenny Blumenfeld 07:39Well, you know, here in the climate office, we've been kind of battling some misconceptions that folks have, because when you look at the average seasonal temperature across, across the state of Minnesota, it's actually the second highest that we have on record. So, it was a warm summer for sure. second only to 1988. And that's true in a few places. And several individual locations actually had their warmest summer on record. The misconception that we're kind of working with, you know, is that people tend to say, oh, well, it's the hottest summer on record. Well, here's the thing, what is hot? You know, I know how Jim du Bois, he likes it, he likes it, he likes it 90 or better. Jim du Bois 08:28Yes. Kenny Blumenfeld 08:29He wants to he, he wants to earn his relief. You know, whatever lemonade, he's gonna drink later on. He wants to earn it. And I think that's how a lot of us really think of hot weather. If it's, if it's 90 or higher, or maybe you have, you know, really, like the highest temperature of the summer is higher, or as high as anything you've observed. We didn't have that. International Falls is probably the one station, and there's a couple sprinkled around northern Minnesota, where we have to give it to them. They had legitimately hot summers by their own standards. So, far northern Minnesota, it was a hot hot summer, and it was potentially the hottest on record. But when you look into southern and central Minnesota, and that's where a lot of these terms are being generated, you know, around the Twin Cities, this was nowhere near our hottest summer because we've had summers, you know, we didn't even rank in the top 10 for a number of days above 90 degrees. And our highest temperature of summer didn't even crack 100 degrees in the Twin Cities. And you know, you've got a couple dozen other years where that did happen. So, you know, it was a very warm summer, no doubt about it. And we saw some of the highest temperatures that we have recorded on an seasonally averaged basis. That means you take the average from June, July and August. No doubt about it, warm, warm summer, and some parts of the state were hot. We just aren't comfortable saying this was our hottest summer yet because anybody who experienced 1988 would say, yeah, what about that one? Or people who just know the history and know what happened in say 1936, for example, when, you know, there was 14 days in July in a row where the temperature was 90 or higher, and I think something like eight of those days, it was over 100 degrees and including our all time high temperature record. And since we weren't anywhere near those types of metrics, you know, this is where, you know, dorky climatologists get, you know, we just like to keep people on message a little bit here. Because if you live in Portland, Oregon, for example, they absolutely had some of the hottest weather they ever recorded. No doubt about that. And we can't really claim to have had the same experience that Portland had. And we want to make sure we use those types of terms when we know we did have that kind of summer, and we haven't had that one yet. So hopefully, it's not coming. But you know, gosh, seems like almost anything can happen now. Jim du Bois 11:11How is our drought situation shaping up? Kenny Blumenfeld 11:14Yeah, that's a good question. So you probably noticed, Jim, nice, green lush vegetation in South Minneapolis. Jim du Bois 11:22Oh, yes. It came back, it came back. Kenny Blumenfeld 11:23Yeah, I think that, you know, Minnehaha Falls came to life. This allows, I think people in southern Minnesota in particular to kind of forget what else is going on. So, in the Twin Cities area, we got a good push of precipitation. And certainly southern Minnesota has done better. We still have large deficits, anywhere from four to eight inches, depending on where you are in most of southern Minnesota. Parts of southeastern Minnesota, there's effectively no long term deficit now. And so, it's not clear how long they'll remain in official drought conditions. But in northern Minnesota where the precipitation was a little more spotty, and in many cases, scarce, the drought, if anything intensified during August. And you know, I think if I were in northeast Minnesota with all the fires from the summer, I would not be resting on our laurels just yet, because they didn't get as much precipitation as other parts of the state. And they're coming into that same thing, we just described the whole mechanism that makes it crisp in the fall. That also dries out standing, living vegetation. So, if you've already had really dry conditions, and then the dry season kicks in where you don't have photosynthesis so you don't have that evapo- transpiration where the water comes out of the plants and goes into the atmosphere, that's really when the main fire weather season is. So, parts of northeastern Minnesota have a two year deficit going back to February of 2020. So, it's like 18 or 19 months deficit on the order of a foot of rainfall or precipitation. So, they're really low. They need more precipitation. They're coming into their dry season. Much of northern Minnesota is still in that extreme level of drought officially, and we still have a little swath of northwestern Minnesota, kind of from the International Falls area through Red Lake that remains in what's called D4 or exceptional drought, the highest level of drought on the US Drought Monitor. So, I would say southern Minnesota can feel a bit better. We're still behind, but we're in a much better position than northern Minnesota where they haven't had as much help and where the deficits are much larger. Jim du Bois 12:38So, what do the weather trends look like in the days and maybe weeks ahead? Anything interesting that you've seen? Kenny Blumenfeld 13:52Yeah, actually, the most interesting thing starts I mean, there's one shot today, that's Monday, September 13. I don't think it's a major outbreak of severe weather. But you know, the Storm Prediction Center has indicated slight risk of severe weather over parts of southern Minnesota, basically south of the Twin Cities. I think I-90, that kind of I-90 area, and maybe a little bit north into say Mankato and Red Wing. So, a chance for severe weather this evening. And heavy rain will also be possible over parts of southern and central Minnesota. Again, I don't think this is the event of the year at all, but there's a chance that, you know, decent signal that some areas are going to get another one to two inches, kind of I don't know if it's irony, but a lot of that rain looks most likely in the areas that you know, needed the least. They'll take it. I think it's good to put it in the bank. When you're in a drought, put as much water in the bank as you can, but there are parts in northeastern Minnesota that it probably won't see anything from this. Then we move into a really warm pattern especially as we get, you know, later into the week and into the weekend. The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center has an 80% chance likelihood of being above normal for temperatures in the six to 10 day period. And in the eight to 14 day period. So, we're getting, you know, right around the Fall Equinox and slightly after that. So, you know, September 18, through basically 25th or so 26, that period has a very high likelihood of being above normal for temperatures. And depending on where in the state you are potentially anyway, above normal for precipitation. Essentially, what the models are showing as we move into kind of a warm and stormy pattern. And we've seen this before, my colleague and I will joke about oh, every time it looks like the whole state of Minnesota is about to get really warm and really wet, it ends up being that southern Minnesota gets pounded and northern Minnesota just gets hot, so I'm not betting on anything yet. All I know is that the professional forecasters are looking ahead and seeing a lot of precipitation chances. The European Model, which is one of the highly regarded forecasting models, shows several inches of precipitation over parts of Minnesota over the next 9, 10 days. Again, is that really what's going to happen, or is it just going to hit Rochester again? That right now, I can't tell you, but it does look like a warmer pattern, you know, so another chance of showers and thunderstorms on Thursday. And then again over the weekend. And then again, we get into a really warm pattern by the end of the weekend where we could have some 90s creeping back into Minnesota, if things hold up for Sunday. Jim du Bois 16:43Well, it may be meteorological fall, but it sounds like summer-like weather is going to persist for a while. Kenny Blumenfeld 16:50Yeah, I mean, you'll like it, Jim. I'll like it too, I think, you know, it'll still be relatively humid. So, we're not yet to that hot, dry type of fall weather that sometimes you get. So we'll have to see. It's not quite the same as what you get in July. But you know, it could be an interesting time. So starting with today, thunderstorms very likely over parts of southern and central Minnesota. Almost guaranteed somewhere in that region this evening with severe weather most likely south of the Twin Cities. And then other chances late in the week and over the weekend. Jim du Bois 17:27Well, keep an eye on the sky and an ear or an eye to your favorite source of weather information. And Kenny, great chatting with you as always. Enjoy and we'll check in with you again next week. Kenny Blumenfeld 17:39Great, thanks. Good talking with you too. Jim. Jim du Bois 17:41This is Way Over Our Heads. It's a weather and climate podcast. I'm Jim du Bois. Kenny Blumenfeld's a climatologist. We'll catch you next time.

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It's just the boys this week but Shera will join us again next week. A double celebration of Astronomical Summer and Father's Day happened last week along with a big heat wave. The tropics are a little active and Claudette is making news. This week's Stormdar Weather School is all about the Climate Prediction Center and Corey gives us the Weather Word of the Week! ~~~~~~~~~~ Check out our website at: stormdarweather.com Support us on Patreon at: patreon.com/stormdarweather Follow us on Instagram at: instagram.com/stormdarweathermedia

PHOENIX, Ariz., (June 15, 2021) - Arizona Registrar of Contractors (AZ ROC) urges homeowners to prepare for monsoon season by educating themselves on how to avoid contracting scams. Wildfire season is already in full swing and Arizona's monsoon season officially begins today, June 15. Last year's monsoon season was abnormally dry, but this year the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center is predicting a 40 percent chance of above-average rain. Monsoon storms mean some Arizonans are going to need home repairs and as always, some will be in a hurry. The current labor and materials shortages may make normal busy season delays worse, putting unlicensed individuals and entities at a better position to take advantage of unsuspecting homeowners rushing to make repairs. These unlicensed entities will likely claim to be available to start immediately, unlike many properly licensed contractors who are currently projecting significant delays due to high demand and labor and supply shortages. Additional red flags homeowners should look out for are: Door-to-door solicitors offering low-cost construction services, possibly with “left-over” materials. Requests for payment in cash. Requests for homeowners to sign over an insurance check. Homeowners should never make a hurried decision about their home, and in most cases there are things they can do to mitigate further damage to the home while waiting for a licensed contractor. Residential property owners using a licensed contractor have significant protections not available to persons hiring unlicensed entities. Among them is the ability to file a complaint against the contractor's license within a two-year period from the date of occupancy or date the last work was performed. This is the Agency's jurisdiction period should work performed be below workmanship standards. Under certain conditions, you may also be eligible to apply to the Registrar's Residential Contractors' Recovery Fund and, depending on the cost of damages, receive up to $30,000 to have the work corrected or completed. To avoid falling prey to a second disaster, damaged homeowners should only hire licensed contracting professionals to work on their property. Always get multiple estimates and check the license using the free contractor search at www.roc.az.gov, or by giving the Agency a call at 1-877-692-9762 (1-877-MY-AZROC). ###

PHOENIX, Ariz., (June 15, 2021) - Arizona Registrar of Contractors (AZ ROC) urges homeowners to prepare for monsoon season by educating themselves on how to avoid contracting scams. Wildfire season is already in full swing and Arizona's monsoon season officially begins today, June 15. Last year's monsoon season was abnormally dry, but this year the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center is predicting a 40 percent chance of above-average rain. Monsoon storms mean some Arizonans are going to need home repairs and as always, some will be in a hurry. The current labor and materials shortages may make normal busy season delays worse, putting unlicensed individuals and entities at a better position to take advantage of unsuspecting homeowners rushing to make repairs. These unlicensed entities will likely claim to be available to start immediately, unlike many properly licensed contractors who are currently projecting significant delays due to high demand and labor and supply shortages. Additional red flags homeowners should look out for are: Door-to-door solicitors offering low-cost construction services, possibly with “left-over” materials. Requests for payment in cash. Requests for homeowners to sign over an insurance check. Homeowners should never make a hurried decision about their home, and in most cases there are things they can do to mitigate further damage to the home while waiting for a licensed contractor. Residential property owners using a licensed contractor have significant protections not available to persons hiring unlicensed entities. Among them is the ability to file a complaint against the contractor's license within a two-year period from the date of occupancy or date the last work was performed. This is the Agency's jurisdiction period should work performed be below workmanship standards. Under certain conditions, you may also be eligible to apply to the Registrar's Residential Contractors' Recovery Fund and, depending on the cost of damages, receive up to $30,000 to have the work corrected or completed. To avoid falling prey to a second disaster, damaged homeowners should only hire licensed contracting professionals to work on their property. Always get multiple estimates and check the license using the free contractor search at www.roc.az.gov, or by giving the Agency a call at 1-877-692-9762 (1-877-MY-AZROC). ###

LNL's Amber Sipe did an interview with Matthew Rosencrans from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center on the start of the 2021 hurricane season. June marks the start of the season. In this interview, they talked about what to expect as far as frequency of storms/active storms/severity of storms.Support this podcast at — https://redcircle.com/local-news-live-daily/donationsAdvertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brands

People gave up on flu pandemic measures a century ago when they tired of them – and paid a price, Kerry: 'No government is going to solve' climate change, Nearly half the U.S. is in drought and conditions are expected to grow worse, NOAA says, Charted: The Gen Z Unemployment Rate, Compared to Older Generations, Farmland could be the next big asset class modernized by marketplace startups, and Fidelity to launch bitcoin ETF as investment giant builds its digital asset business. People gave up on flu pandemic measures a century ago when they tired of them – and paid a price - source "If we have anything to learn from the history of the 1918 influenza pandemic, as well as our experience thus far with COVID-19, however, it is that a premature return to pre-pandemic life risks more cases and more deaths. And today's Americans have significant advantages over those of a century ago. We have a much better understanding of virology and epidemiology. We know that social distancing and masking work to help save lives. Most critically, we have multiple safe and effective vaccines that are being deployed, with the pace of vaccinations increasingly weekly." Kerry: 'No government is going to solve' climate change - source “The solution is going to come from the private sector, and what government needs to do is create the framework within which the private sector can do what it does best, which is allocate capital and innovate and begin to take the framework that's been created. ... We need to go after this as if we're really at war.” Nearly half the U.S. is in drought and conditions are expected to grow worse, NOAA says - source “In many of the drought impacted areas, rangeland and winter pastures have already experienced adverse effects,” said Jon Gottschalck, a meteorologist at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, referring to a historic Arctic outbreak that brought dangerous cold and snowy conditions to the central and southern U.S. in February. Hotter-than-average temperatures this spring and low soil moisture will fuel and expand drought conditions in the southern and central Great Plains and southern Florida, forecasters said. In the northern Plains, drought conditions could grow worse depending on how much rainfall the area experiences. Charted: The Gen Z Unemployment Rate, Compared to Older Generations - source There are more than 2 billion people in the Generation Z age range globally. These individuals, born between 1997 and 2009, represent about 30% of the total global population—and it's predicted that by 2025, Gen Z will make up about 27% of the workforce. Due to the global pandemic, unemployment has been on the rise across the board—but Gen Z has been hit the hardest. This chart, using data from the OECD, displays the difference between the unemployment rate for Gen Zers and the rate for older generations. Fidelity to launch bitcoin ETF as investment giant builds its digital asset business - source When major institutions are getting in on crypto you should be too. Produced by The Wild 1 Media https://darksidediaries.sounder.fm https://anchor.fm/ttmygh --- This episode is sponsored by · Anchor: The easiest way to make a podcast. https://anchor.fm/app

Today in the news, the Great Fox West Theatre is beginning to reawaken in Trinidad and in the state, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued a La Niña Advisory for the United States last week. In the world, a telegram and lock of hair belonging to Abraham Lincoln sells for $81,000.Chronicle News Media Group Providing free marketing assistance to businesses with "Project 360". Give them a call, 719-846-3311

The 2020 Atlantic Hurricane season is predicted to be above normal. The weather guys at the Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service predict a 60% chance of an above-normal hurricane season. COVID-19 will impact the disaster preparedness plans that you have created, including what is in your go kit, your evacuation routes, and shelters. Now is a good time for most reasonable people to contact your local County Office of Emergency management. Ask them what their plan of action is based on COVID-19.

Are we looking at a snowy Halloween??? Listen to find out! We talk about a bunch of stuff this week ranging from the rainy pattern to the cold snap coming to the potential of some flakes. We gander at the Climate Prediction Center's outlooks and tell a couple of stories. Daylight Saving Time ends on Sunday so don't forget to "fall back" an hour! This week's Weather School is all about how it can snow at 40°F, and as always, the Weather Word of the Week! Visit our website at: stormdarweather.com Check out our merch store at: stormdarstore.bigcartel.com

This week the boys talk about the August weather in September and when it might break. There's stuff going on in the tropics and we talk about the incredible Summer heat wave in Alaska. Corey has a cool "this week in weather history". Stormdar Weather School is about the Climate Prediction Center, and, as always, the Weather Word of the Week! Definitely check out or website at: stormdarweather.com Visit our merch store at: stormdarstore.bigcartel.com

It’s getting droughty up in here!Have you felt like there just wasn’t as much water around lately…? From lower precipitation to less snow accumulation in the mountains of the Pacific Northwest…it’s getting dry in here!Droughts can be caused by a number of circumstances, but typically the droughts of the Pacific Northwest are impacted by low precipitation coupled with warmer temperatures (El Nino events). Winter snowpack plays an important role in ensuring that we have sufficient stream flows throughout the summer. What we are experiencing in Western Washington this year is a low precipitation drought. The low snowpack coupled with hot temperatures in April melted more snow, earlier than normal. In western Washington, we depend on the slow melt of snow in the higher elevations to keep streams and rivers flowing throughout the summer, when we typically do not see much additional precipitation. Even in May, which is typically still considered part of our rainy season, our area continued to see low monthly accumulations and higher than normal temperatures. In May, Olympia, WA only had 0.9 of an inch of rain, which is only 39% of the average of 2.33 inches of rain.Most of Western Washington is under the Severe Drought classification from the US Drought Monitor. In addition, the Governor of Washington, Jay Inslee, in 2019, has already declared a Drought Emergency in 27 counties!In Washington State, drought is defined in statute (RCW 43.83B) as conditions where water supply is anticipated to be less than 75 percent of normal and there is anticipated hardship to water users and uses.The US Drought Monitor is a federal program created in 2000. They classify the entire US into 6 categories of drought intensity from normal (non-drought) to exceptional drought. With each level of intensity comes additional associated water conservation actions that range from voluntary water use restrictions to widespread water shortages leading to a water emergency.The U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) has an on-line map, which shows the location and intensity of drought across the country. The data is updated each Tuesday and released on Thursday. See the GIS section below for links!Oregon DroughtWashington DroughtU.S. Drought Monitor also evaluates different drought impact categories, which includes agriculture, business and industry, energy, fire, plants and wildlife, public health, tourism and recreation, and water supply.According to the US Drought Monitor: There are over 5 million people in Washington that are experiencing drought conditions currently and almost 2 million in Oregon. Western Washington is the only area that is experiencing severe drought currently.According to the Department of Ecology, here's the latest conditions as of June 19, 2019:Looking at the 7-day average, more than half of the rivers in the state are showing stream flows in the bottom 10 percent of flows measured for this time of year.Daytime temperatures in the Yakima River are reaching 80 degrees F., which becomes a thermal block for fish movement.How can you help? You can report any drought conditions to the Department of Ecology, and water conservation is always important.Many streams in Western Washington are already below normal volumes for this time of year. Likely these conditions will continue through the summer without additional precipitation. Check out some of the following websites for more information on stream flows.Northwest River Forecast WebsiteEcology Stream Flow WebsiteWhat is the forecast for the summer weather?NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center has forecast warmer and drier conditions for the westside of Washington state from June to August. In addition, weak El Nino conditions still exist and there is a 70% chance they will continue through the summer.Typically areas that are classified by the US Drought Monitor as being under severe drought classification can expect to experience crop or pasture loss, common water shortages and see water restrictions imposed.What are the expected climate change impacts to the Pacific Northwest Droughts?As one may be able to assume, climate change is predicted to increase droughts in some areas, by both increasing the temperature and changing the precipitation cycle.In Western Washington, for example, the total annual accumulation of precipitation is not expected to change drastically. However, the time of year that we see the precipitation will play a critical role in precipitation cycle. Currently, we get precipitation about 9 months out of the year, with the bulk of that coming down as snow in the mountains during the winter. The forecasted precipitation is projected to show up later in the year, when it’s warmer, meaning less snow and less snowpack accumulation in the winter, which will result in lower summertime in-stream flows. This will be compounded by warmer temperatures, which will exacerbate future drought conditions.What does a drought mean for the Pacific Northwest?According to the Department of Ecology’s website:Drought conditions expose different populations and communities to different levels of vulnerabilities.By declaring a drought emergency, the Department of Ecology can offer vital support to these communities. This designation allows Ecology to expedite emergency water right permitting. For instance, one farmer may lease water to another farmer and Ecology can expedite that transfer.It also allows them to make funds available to address hardships caused by drought conditions. On June 4, Ecology announced a grant program to help with drought response.Drought can result in water shortages for agriculture, energy, people and ecosystem services:AgricultureWater rights can be impacted, with senior water rights, including in-stream flow, having the “first dibs” on water and then if there is not enough water left in the streams, junior water right holders may not be able to access the water.EnergyHydroelectric power can be impacted by lower snowpack.PeopleIncreases in water use due to summer irrigation and increased water use around people’s homes. Water withdrawal from surface and groundwater can be impacted by less precipitation and an increased demand for water from multiple sources.Ecosystem ServicesFish - low flows and subsurface flows, increased temperatures, decreased dissolved oxygen (DO), and increased biological activity (growth) can all have a negative impact on fish survival and in some cases can lead to fish kills.Stressed plant communities - Western Washington has recently seen an increase in plant impacts from multiple years of higher heats and less precipitation; these include iconic northwest trees such as madrona, cedar, big leaf maple and other plants such as salal, which has seen a huge die back on Vancouver Island.Increased fire risk due to lower precipitation and higher temperatures. Low soil moisture content and low humidity also contribute to increased risk of wildfire.OSU-extension developed a cool handout that shows some best practices to recover from a wildfire.To learn about fire and wildfire preparedness, listen to Episode 9: Fire Must BURN!Learn more about how the City of Port Orchard stopped any further construction in the new McCormick Woods development due to concerns of having insufficient drinking water supplies. This is a big deal for a local municipality, since permitting is an important revenue source. Check out this interview with KOMO news or this article in the Kitsap Sun Newspaper to learn more about the City’s plans. The City is continuing to work with the developer and the City of Bremerton to find a solution.What can you do to minimize the impacts of a drought?As an individual, conserving water is the best way to mitigate for the impacts of drought.We suggest you start with a water audit to calculate your water use footprint. We used the www.watercalculator.org website to calculate our average water footprint per day. Basically you answer a series of questions about your typical indoor, outdoor and virtual water use.Some interesting things discussed in the calculator include the virtual water use items. For example:It takes an enormous amount of water to produce animal products like meat and dairy, because livestock and poultry in the US eat large amounts of water-intensive feed – usually corn and soybeans. Agricultural withdrawals account for 70% of water use around the world.Because irrigation-related water consumption is so high, it’s important to make water-wise food and textile purchases!Cotton takes a lot of water because it is typically grown in arid regions, which require irrigation.It’s good to think about how goods are moved around the planet and consider how much water is moved and consumed in the process, even though it’s hidden from sight!Things like smart phones take over 3,000 gallons of water to produce, which is associated with both their manufacturing and disposal of wastewater that is diluted with freshwater to meet water quality standards.Did you know that it takes 22 gallons of water to make one pound of plastic? This means it takes twice as much water to produce a plastic water bottle as the water that is contained in it!How can you save water?According to the water calculator website, these 5 simple steps can help you save water:STEP 1: Change your dietIt takes water – a lot of it – to grow, process and transport your food. When you eat lower on the food chain, eat more whole foods and waste less food, you also save water.STEP 2: Cut indoor water useEvery day, you rely on water for a wide variety of uses around the house. There are lots of opportunities to cut back on water use in the kitchen, bathroom and laundry room and even by fixing leaks.Toilets are the largest water consumers in da house! Typically they account for about 30% of overall household water use. Using a low flow toilet, fixing any toilet leaks and considering letting it mellow are all ways to minimize water use. A leaking toilet can waste 200 gallons per day!Fix leaks! Leaks just waste water and even a small drip can add up to a lot of water over time.Turn off the water when you are brushing your teeth or lathering your hands.Keep showers short and consider skipping a day every once in a while, in the name of water conservation, of course! Replace shower heads that have a flow rate greater than 2.5 gallons (9.5 liters) per minute (the current national energy policy act standard).If the shower head is not labeled, the flow rate can be checked by catching the water in a 1-gallon (3.8 liters) bucket. If it takes less than 24 seconds to fill up, the shower head flow rate is more than 2.5 gallons (9.5 liters) per minute. The U.S. EPA WaterSense program labels efficient shower heads that use a maximum 2.0 gallons (7.6 liters) per minute.High Efficiency dishwashers typically use less water than doing dishes by hand, but make sure to do full loads. The same goes for the laundry; having a high efficiency washer can save a lot of water.STEP 3: Use less water outdoorsOf all the residential water we use in the US, on average we use about a quarter outdoors. In some western states it’s half to three-quarters, primarily for lawns and gardens. A few simple steps can reduce your outdoor water consumption, so tighten those taps, eliminate those leaks and use water wisely.Outdoor water use accounts for 30% of the average daily water use in the United States! In hot summer months or dry areas, outdoor water use can account for up to 70%.Choose drought tolerant plant species and minimize turf and lawn areas. WSU-extension has some great resources for drought tolerant plants.Use a timer to prevent over-watering; most lawns need 1” of water per week. Watering longer promotes deeper root growth, which makes the grass more resilient.STEP 4: Save energy, save waterWater and energy are linked. It takes water to make energy (electricity and transportation fuels) and it takes energy to move, heat and treat water. When you save energy you also save water.STEP 5: Change buying habitsPractically everything you buy, use and consume has a water footprint because it took water to process and transport it. Being thoughtful about purchases, reusing where you can and recycling can reduce your water footprint.Try to consider the water footprint of various products that you purchase; remember that bottle of water took a lot more water to produce than just the water inside of it! Meat and textile production are very water intensive.Also, you can become a water detective, by paying attention to your water bill. Do you see an unexpected increase in water use? If so, check for leaks! Knowing how much water you typically use will help you determine if there is a concern or you have been able to reduce your water use!Still want to know more?!Ya, cool cats usually do…check out these links for lots more information!Department of Ecology’s Water Conservation PageThe Alliance for Water Efficiency Drought and Drought Response, Business and Industry tips and Water Conservation TipsEPA’s WaterSenseWashington State Department of Health Drinking Water and DroughtGIS Time! How do they make that cool US Drought Monitor Map?The information for this segment of the podcast comes from a slide show given by Eric Luebehusen, a meteorologist and one of the authors of the US Drought Monitor (USDM) Map. He does a fabulous job of explaining the history of the map and how it’s created today, so I won’t repeat it all here, and we won’t have a separate GIS Tools blog this week.The USDM map started out as a really pixelated drawing back in August of 1999, but eventually moved over to GIS and uses a lot of science-based layers today. They still create all of the drought shapes by hand, which takes 10-20 volunteer hours per week! See the whole slide deck here.Citizen Science: Drought Reporting and Weather Stations!Are you being affected by drought? You can submit a report about how lack of water is affecting you through the Drought Impact Reporter from the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska. The format of the report is a Survey123 app, which the Magical Mapper has mentioned before on the podcast. You can also attach photos and report on any and all of the questions they ask about, which include agriculture, municipal water supply, and fish and wildlife habitat impacts. You can then see the reports in an awesome story map! This is just a starting point for interested parties to see what’s going on, and is based solely on media reports and subjective volunteer reports.Want to have a bit more impact? You can become a CoCoRaHS reporter! CoCoRaHS stands for Community Collaborative Rain Hail and Snow Network. This network of volunteers have purchased high quality rain gauges that cost around $35 and report precipitation amounts each day. You do need to commit to reading and emptying your rain gauge at the same time every day. These reports are then used by a wide variety of people, including the National Weather Service, climatologists, researchers, insurance industry, forensic detectives, and the US Drought Monitor, just to name a few. Even readings of 0 rain are very important and help researchers study and identify drought conditions.Thanks for joining us!As always, please rate, review and subscribe on Apple Podcasts, Stitcher, or wherever you get your podcasts. Please let us know what you think at outalivepodcast.com or facebook.com/WillWeMakeItOutAlive. If you like the podcast, please tell all of your friends! And family! And co-workers! And strangers!See you next month!

There's a 70 percent chance of an El Nino winter, according to the Climate Prediction Center. That would mean warmer and drier temperatures for the months of December, January, and February.

This week we talk about the nice break in the heat. But, it's about over as the hot and humid conditions return. We also take a look at area lake temperatures and see what the Climate Prediction Center says for Summer. Stormdar Weather School is all about Warnings and as always, we have the Weather Word of the Week!

We’re All Exposed and We’re All at Risk. That story and more on H2O Radio’s weekly news report. Air, water, and soil pollution are killing more people in the world each year than all wars and violence. A 27-year study documents a remarkable decline in insects. A proposed pipeline will cross about 700 rivers and streams in Virginia and roughly 320 waterways in North Carolina. A super typhoon hitting Japan may affect weather in the U.S. Hot off the press: NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is out with its 2017-18 winter forecast

Preparing for Hurricane Season  – 2017 Update. ** SPECIAL NOTE:  This information has been updated based on May 25, 2017, predictions from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. Planning and preparing your hotel for hurricane season each year can be a daunting task.  But with a solid plan in place and an early start to your preparations,… The post EP #2 – Preparing for Hurricane Season appeared first on Hospitality Academy.

Twice monthly conference call with Corps of Engineers, Climate Prediction Center, congressional delegation, tribes, states, local and county emergency management officials.

Michael Hasey, Co-owner of “The Farming Fish” http://thefarmingfish.com/ The Farming Fish is located in southern Oregon. The mission is to practice agriculture in the most wholesome ways while developing the practice of Aquaponics. They strive to not only ask of our lands to feed us, but to nurture our lands as well. DeWayne Cecil, PhD, advisor to NOAA, talks about January 2012 the fourth warmest for the contiguous U.S., climates in general and satellites. The globe experienced its 19th warmest January since record keeping began in 1880. Additionally, La Niña conditions continued during January 2012. According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, La Niña is expected to dissipate during the Northern Hemisphere spring. For more info go to: http://www.noaa.gov

World weather ran the gamut this week -- from snow in the desert to rain on the frozen tundra and then to the worst wildfires ever in Australia. But a new study just released says the real snowbirds are moving north and John Flicker of the Audubon Society tells us why. And NOAA unveiled its new format for relaying El Nino/La Nina watches and advisories, as we hear from Mike Halpert from the Climate Prediction Center. Keep up with the first severe storms of the 2009 season at our Website of the Week from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center at www.spc.noaa.gov