Podcasts about Survivorship bias

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Jede:r in Tech kennt sie: die Side-Project-Idee, die sich am Anfang wie der nächste geniale Wurf anfühlt. Ein echtes Problem, eine elegante technische Lösung, ein Wochenende Motivation und vielleicht sogar schon die passende Domain. Und dann? Dann kommen Alltag, Overengineering, fehlender Produkt-Market-Fit, Plattform Abhängigkeiten oder schlicht zu wenig Zeit. Genau darüber sprechen wir in dieser Episode. Ohne Hochglanz, ohne Gründerromantik, ohne nachträglich zusammengebasteltes Happy End.Wir schauen darauf, warum gescheiterte Side-Projects völlig normal sind und trotzdem kaum sichtbar werden. Mit dabei sind Themen wie Survivorship Bias, Startup-Statistiken, Payment first, Ship first, Dogfooding, Accountability und die unbequeme Wahrheit, dass Coding oft der einfache Teil ist, während Vertrieb, Distribution und Durchhaltevermögen der eigentliche Endgegner sind. Konkret wird es mit zwei ehrlichen Beispielen: einem Wohnungs-Crawler namens Wohnbot, der per WhatsApp neue Wohnungsanzeigen schicken sollte, und einer Fitness-App, die aus einem kleinen UX-Problem direkt in ein Rabbit Hole aus Flutter, CI, Monitoring und Perfektionismus gerutscht ist.Wenn du selbst schon Open Source Tools, Apps, Automationen oder andere Side-Projects gestartet und nie zu Ende gebracht hast, wirst du dich hier ziemlich sicher wiederfinden. Vielleicht nimmst du sogar etwas mit für dein nächstes Projekt. Zum Beispiel, dass eine gute Idee allein wertlos ist, wenn sie nie das Licht der Welt erblickt.Oder ganz einfach: Stop starting, start finishing.Unsere aktuellen Werbepartner findest du auf https://engineeringkiosk.dev/partnersDas schnelle Feedback zur Episode:

Il fondo Mediolanum Challenge International Equity (Isin IE0032082988) gestisce quasi 3 miliardi di euro, ma quanto è davvero efficiente per i risparmiatori?In questo podcast analizziamo dati alla mano l'andamento di uno dei fondi azionari globali più diffusi in Italia, confrontandolo con il mercato reale e con strumenti più economici come gli ETF. Spesso sentiamo investitori lamentarsi di rendimenti scarsi a fronte di perdite significative durante i crolli di mercato.Ma dove finiscono realmente i tuoi guadagni?Esaminiamo l'impatto dei costi di gestione (TER), le commissioni di performance e il fenomeno del Survivorship Bias. Cosa scoprirai in questo podcast: Analisi Storica (2004-2026): Il confronto impietoso tra il fondo Mediolanum (Isin IE0032082988) (+186%) e il mercato globale (+600%).Costi Occulti: Perché paghi il 2,78% annuo e come funzionano le commissioni di performance "all'irlandese".Drawdown e Rischio: Il fondo a gestione attiva protegge davvero nelle fasi di crisi?Rating Morningstar vs Numeri Reali: Perché le stelline a volte possono trarre in inganno.Simulazione Reale: Il caso di Luca e Giulia (come una scelta inefficiente può costare oltre 180.000€).

Paul Sloane joins James Smith to dismantle the myth of bad luck and reveal why the most successful innovations in history happened entirely by accident. A Cambridge engineer, former IBM marketer, and bestselling author, Sloane argues that what most people write off as misfortune is actually a hidden opportunity, and the people who notice it are the ones who change industries.

Dirk und Sujeevan unterhalten sich über interessante Vorträge von den Chemnitzer Linux-Tagen, was die Luck Surface Area und Survivorship Bias ist und noch ganz viel mehr.

We've built our careers on case studies, portfolios, and success stories, but what if we're only ever seeing a fraction of the full picture? This week, we dig into survivorship bias and how it quietly shapes the decisions your product team makes every day.What if every case study and "here's how we did it" success story you've ever learned from was missing the most important part of the story?Every startup founder story sounds the same. Crazy idea. Doubters everywhere. Bet on themselves. Changed everything. It's a great narrative, but it's a narrative written entirely by the people who made it through. For every founder who ignored the critics and won, thousands did the exact same thing and quietly disappeared. It may sound like pessimism, but that's the math we've been ignoring.This week's Cognition Catalog episode breaks down survivorship bias: why we instinctively focus on the outcomes we can see while the failures stay invisible. It shows up everywhere; in the startup mythology we've absorbed, in the portfolios we scroll through on LinkedIn, and in the way product teams anchor their planning on the projects that shipped rather than the ones that got quietly shelved.The good news is that this isn't a bias you're stuck with. There are practical ways to build better habits into how your team makes decisions, and it starts by asking a different question. Give this one a listen if you've ever wondered why your career feels like it doesn't quite measure up to everyone else's highlight reel.Topics:• 00:00 - The startup founder myth and why we only hear from the survivors.• 01:23 - Welcome to the Cognition Catalog.• 02:45 - The small business failure numbers that most people never talk about.• 04:23 - What survivorship bias actually is and why it matters.• 04:35 - Why portfolio case studies only show the work that succeeded.• 05:35 - Why your career probably looks worse than everyone else's, and why that's an illusion.• 08:16 - How the college dropout mythology turns exceptions into templates.• 08:40 - How survivorship bias quietly shapes product team decisions.• 09:02 - Why your active user research is a filtered sample.• 09:28 - How survivorship bias shows up in team culture.• 10:09 - Five practical ways to fight survivorship bias on your team.• 12:11 - The one question you should always be asking about success stories.—Thanks for listening! We hope you dug today's episode. If you liked what you heard, be sure to like and subscribe wherever you listen to podcasts! And if you really enjoyed today's episode, why don't you leave a five-star review? Or tell some friends! It will help us out a ton.If you haven't already, sign up for our email list. We won't spam you. Pinky swear.• ⁠Get a FREE audiobook AND support the show⁠• ⁠Support the show on Patreon⁠• ⁠Check out show transcripts⁠• ⁠Check out our website⁠• ⁠Subscribe on Apple Podcasts⁠• ⁠Subscribe on Spotify⁠• ⁠Subscribe on YouTube⁠• ⁠Subscribe on Stitcher

This week, we looked at World War II aircraft and the concept of survivorship bias, focusing on how analysts studied returning bombers riddled with bullet holes. Statistician Abraham Wald highlighted that they were only examining the planes that made it back, not the ones that were lost. 702 Breakfast with Bongani Bingwa is broadcast on 702, a Johannesburg based talk radio station. Bongani makes sense of the news, interviews the key newsmakers of the day, and holds those in power to account on your behalf. The team bring you all you need to know to start your day Thank you for listening to a podcast from 702 Breakfast with Bongani Bingwa Listen live on Primedia+ weekdays from 06:00 and 09:00 (SA Time) to Breakfast with Bongani Bingwa broadcast on 702: https://buff.ly/gk3y0Kj For more from the show go to https://buff.ly/36edSLV or find all the catch-up podcasts here https://buff.ly/zEcM35T Subscribe to the 702 Daily and Weekly Newsletters https://buff.ly/v5mfetc Follow us on social media: 702 on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/TalkRadio702 702 on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@talkradio702 702 on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/talkradio702/ 702 on X: https://x.com/Radio702 702 on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@radio7See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this episode of the Global Thinking Podcast, host Rob Duncan sits down with Dr. Joe Nelesen from S&P Dow Jones Indices to break down the SPIVA Canada 2025 report and what it reveals about active vs passive investing. The data is clear. Most active managers underperform their benchmarks — not just in 2025, but over longer time horizons. This raises a critical question for investors and advisors alike. Is it still worth chasing alpha? Rob and Joe explore: Why active managers consistently struggle to beat the market The role of fees, market efficiency, and survivorship bias Where active investing may still have an edge The continued rise of ETFs and index investing How AI, tokenization, and evolving market structure could shape the future   Whether you are a portfolio manager, financial advisor, or individual investor, this episode provides a data-driven look at one of the most important debates in investing today. If you are building portfolios in today's market, understanding the trade-offs between active and passive investing has never been more important.   Chapters 00:00 Introduction to Global Thinking Podcast 02:31 Understanding the SPIVA Report Card 04:35 Performance of Active Managers in 2025 09:00 Factors Leading to Underperformance 13:11 The Role of Fees and Market Dynamics 17:40 Survivorship Bias in Active Management 19:44 The Future of Active Management 24:34 Active vs. Passive Investment Strategies 28:56 The Impact of Fund Selection 29:21 The Rise of Index Investing 30:43 Passive vs Active Investing Dynamics 32:23 Tokenization and Market Evolution 33:18 Future of Market Hours 35:07 The Future of Active vs Index Investing 37:58 AI's Role in Investment Strategies 41:54 Insights on Indices and Reading Recommendations   Disclosures: https://forstrong.com/disclosures/    Global Thinking Podcast Series - https://forstrong.com/podcast/    Global Thinking Insights - https://forstrong.com/insights/    Who is Forstrong Global - https://forstrong.com/who-we-are/    Ask Forstrong - https://forstrong.com/category/ask-forstrong/    Invest With Us - https://forstrong.com/invest-with-us/     Thank for you listening, please considering leaving a review and subscribing for future episodes.   For any questions, comments or suggested topics please reach out to Rob Duncan, rduncan@forstrong.com        

In this episode, Dr. Killeen shares a powerful story from World War II that highlights a common thinking error called survivorship bias. By studying only the planes that returned from combat, analysts nearly reinforced the wrong parts of the aircraft until statistician Abraham Wald pointed out they were missing the most important data. This same bias shows up in dentistry when we look only at successful practices and try to copy what they are doing without considering the many others who tried the same strategies and failed. What we see is often just the highlight reel, not the full story. Dr. Killeen encourages dentists to start looking beyond visible success and to ask better questions about what does not work. By paying attention to failures, blind spots, and unseen risks, practice owners can make smarter decisions and avoid costly mistakes.

Recording of my live Q&A on IG!I do live calorie and macro calculations, my thoughts on pilates, how to gain momentum and more!If you are a Middle Aged Vegan that wants to lose fat & build muscle, live longer - without cutting carbs or your favourite foods ...

Cillian O'Connor is a strength coach with a masters of strength and conditioning who joins me to share his skill and philosophy about:Does your training split really matterWhy trying to over optimize training programs and lifestyle usually leads to failureWhy starting with an extreme approach may be an intentional or subconscious way to prove someone isn't the type of person who can be fit and healthyWhy hitting rock bottom is an unreliable way to changeWhy taking lessons from elite bodybuilders may lead you astraySurvivorship bias in fitnessThe value of being around the right people and in the right training environmentThe training variables that matter most for resultsMusings on online vs in-person trainingHow people will interact with AI based vs human coachingAnd much moreIG: @cilloconnorCHAPTERS01:32 Programs Need Repeatability03:28 Self Efficacy And Identity04:57 Why People Self Sabotage07:33 Quick Fixes And Messaging11:57 Change Windows And Privilege14:38 Avoiding Rock Bottom15:55 Kids Sports And Foundations19:03 Irish Sports And Rugby21:53 Internet Optimization Trap26:13 Bodybuilding Ideologies28:56 Survivorship Bias Lesson31:20 What Actually Matters32:38 Survivorship Bias Lessons33:22 Training Frail Older Adults34:07 Do Training Splits Matter38:37 Less Is More Training42:15 Full Body Done Right46:34 Focus Beats More Volume47:31 Train With Stronger People50:03 Accountability Is The Edge53:43 AI And Coaching Future01:00:43 Online Coaching Trust IssuesSUPPORT THE SHOWIf this episode helped you simplify your approach to training or rethink optimization, you can support the show by:• Subscribing and checking out more episodes• Sharing it on social media (tag me — I'll respond)• Sending it to someone overwhelmed by fitness adviceFOLLOW ANDREW COATESInstagram: @andrewcoatesfitnesshttps://www.andrewcoatesfitness.comPARTNERS AND RESOURCESRP Strength App (use code COATESRP)https://www.rpstrength.com/coatesJust Bite Me Meals (use code ANDREWCOATESFITNESS for 10% off)https://justbitememeals.comMacrosFirst – FREE Premium TrialDownload MacrosFirst and during setup select: ANDREWKNKG Bags (15% off)https://www.knkg.com/Andrew59676Versa Grippshttps://www.versagripps.com/andrewcoatesTRAINHEROIC – FREE 90-Day Trialhttps://www.trainheroic.com/liftfreeReply to the email you receive (or email trials@trainheroic.com) and let them know Andrew sent you

Mehr Informationen zu uns und unserer Fitness Body Challenge findest du hier: https://fitnessbodychallenge.de/crossfitmitschmackes/Du möchtest Themen einreichen? Dann schreib uns doch einfach unter support@fitnessbodychallenge. de oder auf Instagram unter @deinefbc und @crossfitmitschmackes.„Ernährungsberater hassen diesen Trick!“ – Wer diesen Satz auf Instagram liest, sollte eigentlich direkt weiterwischen. Doch warum fallen wir immer wieder auf die glänzenden Fassaden von Fitness-Influencern rein, die außer einer persönlichen Gewichtsabnahme keinerlei Qualifikation besitzen?In dieser Folge von Fit Satt Gesund räumen wir radikal mit dem „Wilden Westen“ auf Social Media auf. Wir sprechen darüber, warum ein Sixpack kein Zertifikat für Fachwissen ist und warum der Survivorship Bias (Überlebenden-Irrtum) uns glauben lässt, dass jede Crash-Diät für alle funktioniert.Mehr Informationen zu uns und unserer Fitness Body Challenge findest du hier: https://fitnessbodychallenge.de/crossfitmitschmackes/Du möchtest Themen einreichen? Dann schreib uns doch einfach unter support@fitnessbodychallenge. de oder auf Instagram unter @deinefbc und @crossfitmitschmackes.

Spotify never used the Spotify Model - and neither should you. In this $2 billion episode, Product Manager Brian Orlando and Enterprise Business Agility Consultant Om Patel take a cutting torch to one of big-A-Agile's most beloved organizational myths - the Spotify Model! We're doing invasive surgery to see what's inside beyond the over-hyped squads, tribes, chapters, and guilds that have been copied by companies the world over. ...but what if we found out that the inside was hollow? What if we found out that the Spotify Model was never even live and tested by Spotify?

The Yard of Hard Drives Episode: Throwing Hands with Backlogs, The Literal Yard, Drives Cast Out, The Grind of Pain, Survivorship Bias, The Success and the Failure, The Arcane Nature of Repair, The Realization of Entropy, The River Styx.I find myself staring down many, many hard drives left in the yard, and try to find value and rescue in what I can get. It's going fine! But it's noisy.

We gaan er vaak van uit dat we weten wat onze klanten willen. En op basis daarvan ontwikkelen we onze producten en diensten. Maar weten we dat echt? Of maken we wat we dénken dat ze nodig hebben? En wat met onze niet-klanten, wat kunnen we daarvan leren? In podcastaflevering 164 vertel ik je waarom die feedback zo waardevol is én hoe je die krijgt.Alles op een rijtje zetten? Je vindt de samenvatting op www.businessdad.be/164.PS Ben je van plan om je eigen zaak op te starten of wil je meer grip op je financiën om je groei te boosten? Download mijn gratis template voor jouw financieel plan via de link in bio of rechtstreeks op www.businessdad.be/financieelplan.

Die Balance zwischen Familie, Konzernjob und Side Project.Side Project, Vollzeitjob und dann auch noch Kinder. Klingt nach einer dieser Ideen, die man sonntags feiert und montags bereut. Aber was, wenn genau darin die Energie steckt, die dir im Konzernalltag fehlt? Und was, wenn die größte Challenge gar nicht Zeit ist, sondern Erwartungen, Selbstzweifel und der Druck, immer liefern zu müssen?In dieser Episode sprechen wir mit Stephan, iOS-Software-Engineer bei der Techniker Krankenkasse, Quereinsteiger mit McKinsey-Background, Vater von zwei Kindern und Indie-Developer der Haushaltsbuch-App Monee. Stephan nimmt uns mit in seine Hypercare-Phase als Elternteil, erklärt sein Setup mit Vier-Tage-Woche, Kinderbetreuung und klaren Absprachen und zeigt, wie er ein Side Project so baut, dass es nicht die Familie frisst.Wir gehen tief in Energiemanagement, Autonomie als Motivator, Support-Triage, den Umgang mit Crashs und negativen Reviews sowie in die Realität von Build-in-Public, inklusive Survivorship Bias. Dazu gibt es ehrliche Einblicke darin, wie man als Entwickler:in trotz wenig Zeit dranbleibt, ohne sich selbst zu zerlegen.Wenn du dich fragst, wie du Weiterbildung, Open Source oder ein eigenes Produkt neben Familie und Job realistisch unterkommst, ist das deine Episode.Bonus: Elternlogik des Tages. Ein Kind ist kein Kind. Du bist noch in der Überzahl.Unsere aktuellen Werbepartner findest du auf https://engineeringkiosk.dev/partnersDas schnelle Feedback zur Episode:

Perché prendere decisioni basate su analisi storiche è immensamente superiore all'andare a sentimento o seguire le opinioni dei "guru"? In questo episodio speciale parliamo di Backtest e dell'importanza dei dati storici negli investimenti. Scopriamo perché affidarsi alle evidenze statistiche batte l'intuizione e come i dati possono proteggerci dalle trappole emotive dei mercati. Ma soprattutto, sveliamo una grande novità: la nascita della Sezione Quant nella Membership di Investire Semplicemente. Un progetto "Glass Box" (trasparente) per costruire una libreria di strategie di investimento non correlate, testate su decenni di dati reali. In questa puntata ascolterai:

It's possible that I should stop listening to interviews with famous people. I have heard hundreds and hundreds of celebrities explain their successes and chart their journeys and I may have had my fill. All I can think of is those planes with the bullet holes and Survivorship Bias. Are they actually connected? I started to think about those planes while listening to an interview with Christopher Guest on the WTF podcast. To keep reading ⁠Artists as Planes, visit the Songs for the Struggling Artist blog. This is Episode 470Song: Lesson in Survival⁠Image via ⁠WikicommonsExplicit due to f*cking around talk.To support this podcast:Give it 5 stars in Apple Podcasts. Write a nice review!Rate it wherever you listen or via: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://ratethispodcast.com/strugglingartist⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Join my mailing list: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠www.emilyrainbowdavis.com/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Like the blog/show on Facebook: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.facebook.com/SongsfortheStrugglingArtist/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Support me on Patreon: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠www.patreon.com/emilyrdavis⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Or on Kofi: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠http://ko-fi.com/emilyrainbowdavis⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠or PayPal: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.paypal.me/strugglingartist⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Join my Substack: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://emilyrainbowdavis.substack.com/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Follow me on Twitter ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@erainbowd⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠On Mastodon - @erainbowd@podvibes.coOn Blue sky - @erainbowd.bsky.social⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Instagram⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Pinterest⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Listen to The Dragoning ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and The Defense ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. You can support them via Ko-fi here: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://ko-fi.com/messengertheatrecompany⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠As ever, I am yours,Emily Rainbow Davis

Der Studienabbruch ist ein verlässlicher Turbo für Unternehmensgründer, die Musik war früher viel besser und auf einmal beginnen alle zu laufen, werden vegan oder hören mit dem Alkohol auf: All das sind Irrtümer, die von sogenannten Biases, auf Deutsch kognitiven Verzerrungen, verursacht werden. Selection Bias, Survivorship Bias oder Availability Bias verleiten uns im Alltag zu Fehlschlüssen, die uns üblicherweise auch im Nachhinein kaum auffallen. Der Psychologieforscher und Wirtschaftsnobelpreisträger Daniel Kahneman hat die Forschung zu dem Thema maßgeblich geprägt und mit "Schnelles Denken, langsames Denken" einen Bestseller gelandet, der nach wie vor in gefühlt jeder Buchhandlung zu finden ist – 14 Jahre nach seiner Erscheinung aber nicht mehr ganz unumstritten ist. Die neue Folge von "Besser leben" dreht sich darum, wie man diesen Biases auf die Schliche kommt und wie man sie aushebelt, um so bessere Entscheidungen zu treffen.

Gerne glorifizieren Emittenten ihre besten Fonds. Auch die Finanzpresse beleuchtet die aktuellen Überflieger. Verschwiegen und vergessen sind hingegen die vielen Produkte, die auf der Strecke geblieben sind.Im neusten Podcast erfährst du, woher der sogenannte Survivorship Bias kommt und wie sich der Denkfehler negativ auf die Fondsauswahl auswirken kann. Hast du Fragen oder Anmerkungen? Hinterlasse dein Feedback in der Kommentarspalte oder schreibe uns eine E-Mail an felix@truewealth.chMehr über True Wealth erfährst du ⁠hier⁠.Oder folge uns auf ⁠LinkedIn⁠.

Hamas to release hostages, Nobel Peace Prize in play, lots more fun with news~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Politics, Hamas Hostages Pending Release, Nobel Peace Prize, President Trump, Trump $250 Bill, Climate Models, Survivorship Bias, AI Turing Test, Pluvicto Cancer Drug, Microsoft AI Healthcare, AI Moat Effect, Rare Earth Minerals, Rob Reiner TDS, Palisades Fire Arsonist, Dave Smith, Candace Owens, Jack Posobiec, FTO Antifa, Antifa Funding, US Venezuela War, Ukraine War, Scott Adams~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~If you would like to enjoy this same content plus bonus content from Scott Adams, including micro-lessons on lots of useful topics to build your talent stack, please see scottadams.locals.com for full access to that secret treasure.

Nonprofits don't just need more messages—they need messages that move people. In this fast-paced episode we welcome persuasion instructor and longtime marketer Dean Batson to show how science-based communication turns attention into action. Batson traces his path from launching a digital agency to teaching persuasion at Arizona State University, where he studies the shortcuts our brains use to decide fast. “We make mental shortcuts all day long,” Dean explains. “If you know which way someone may lean because of a heuristic, you can frame your message to nudge that choice.”He breaks down social proof (those 5,000 five-star reviews that quietly sway your click), the danger of choice overload (the famous jam study where 24 flavors crushed sales), and the “availability heuristic”—why the word “shark” grabs attention while “falling coconuts” doesn't. Dean's advice: be the message people recall first. “Be the shark messaging, not the coconut messaging.”For fundraisers, this means streamlining every pathway from interest to gift. Keep donors in System One (fast, intuitive) rather than forcing System Two (slow, effortful) that stalls giving. Less friction. Fewer steps. Clear next action. Dean contrasts persuasion and manipulation with a simple rule: persuasion is transparent and win-win; manipulation is opaque and win-lose—and it burns trust.He also flips how teams read results. Many obsess over the 7% who opened an email while ignoring the 93% who didn't—classic survivorship bias. The fix: study the non-responders and reframe your outreach so more people move. Dean offers practical tactics you can use today, like priming stakeholders with a short Slack note before a meeting to set the idea as the front-runner. And don't wait: start shaping next week's “yes” with simple, steady cues today.Finally, Dean urges leaders to equip the entire organization—not just gift officers—with persuasion skills. When every staffer can frame ideas clearly, your mission becomes the message people remember, share, and support.Find us Live daily on YouTube!Find us Live daily on LinkedIn!Find us Live daily on X: @Nonprofit_ShowOur national co-hosts and amazing guests discuss management, money and missions of nonprofits! 12:30pm ET 11:30am CT 10:30am MT 9:30am PTSend us your ideas for Show Guests or Topics: HelpDesk@AmericanNonprofitAcademy.comVisit us on the web:The Nonprofit Show

Send me feedback!Ever seen the plane image with bullet holes? It's often used to counter people who say, "No one who declined the COVID vaccine regrets it." I discuss problems on both sides.SUPPORT THE SHOWGet a 10% discount by using the code LibertyDad at Black Guns Matter shop.OR, use the referral linkFIND ME ELSEWHERELinktree

On episode 140 of Tatami Talk, we discuss survivorship bias.Things mentioned in this episodehttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survivorship_biashttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fUVlBY0Jh14------------------------------------------- 0:00 Intro07:03 Listener question on blue judogi15:33 Why we don't do reaction videos24:40 Survivorship bias-------------------------------------------Email us: tatamitalk@gmail.com Follow us on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/tatamitalk Juan: https://www.instagram.com/thegr8_juan Anthony: https://www.instagram.com/anthonythrowsCheck out our Substack: https://tatamitalk.substack.com/Intro + Outro by Donald Rickert: https://www.instagram.com/donaldrickertCover Art by Mas: https://www.instagram.com/masproducePodcast Site: https://creators.spotify.com/pod/show/tatamitalk/Also listen on Apple iTunes, Google podcasts, Google Play Music and Spotify

In diesem Video gibt es einen Rückblick auf die spannendsten Themen rund um Finanzen, Krypto, KI, Unternehmertum, Politik und auch Persönliches. Ich gehe meine Posts der letzten Tage durch, erzähle die Hintergründe und teile meine Einschätzung dazu. Links aus dem Video: Investieren auf X https://x.com/julianhosp - Folge Julian dort! 2009 vs 2025 https://x.com/julianhosp/status/1963473096133734595 MSTR in SP500 https://x.com/julianhosp/status/1963817946842808452 Problem MSTR https://x.com/julianhosp/status/1961699468975439990 BTC Underperformance: https://x.com/julianhosp/status/1961690410625171670/photo/2 MSTR Vorzugsaktien https://x.com/julianhosp/status/1963504891336270036 Quantecomputer https://x.com/julianhosp/status/1963473265193521293 Trump & Krypto https://x.com/julianhosp/status/1962691937594679483 Julian's KI Investments https://x.com/julianhosp/status/1963015497785737598 0 Nutzer in Krypto https://x.com/julianhosp/status/1962640032101212487 Chart Astrologie https://x.com/julianhosp/status/1961941759895953683 Julian's Rendite https://x.com/julianhosp/status/1961728892789756179 Julian Lightning https://x.com/julianhosp/status/1962300810894995456 Julians Hater https://x.com/julianhosp/status/1961708198437818721 Normal sein https://x.com/julianhosp/status/1963177820760453591 Erwähnte Produkte, Kurse, Tools: Daily Updates von Julian: https://products.i-unlimited.de/ic-daily Inner Circle Membership: https://innercircle.julianhosp.com/ Kostenloser KI Audiokurs: https://julianhosp.de/KI-30-Plan-ChatGPT Wertformel Buch: https://bit.ly/wertformel_JH Unternehmertum auf LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/julianhosp/- Folge Julian dort! Survivorship Bias https://www.linkedin.com/posts/julianhosp_warum-d%C3%BCrfen-bei-abschlussfeiern-eigentlich-activity-7364145741629399040-tWzd/ Erfolg https://www.linkedin.com/posts/julianhosp_wir-glauben-oft-dass-erfolg-und-misserfolg-activity-7365696118665412609-n6VE/ KI Facebook Gruppe https://www.facebook.com/groups/kimotor Privates auf Instagram https://www.instagram.com/julianhosp - Folge Julian dort! Fitness https://www.instagram.com/p/DNpyzkdB-iF/ KI Photo? https://www.instagram.com/p/DOIs7u8AWVN/ Best Shape https://www.instagram.com/p/DONjSrngbGi Yacht Party https://www.instagram.com/p/DOC3w90AcbG/ Trigger Posts auf Threads https://www.threads.com/@julianhosp/ - Folge Julian dort! Sozialismus https://www.threads.com/@julianhosp/post/DOIsbMvkvej Mietpreisbremse https://www.threads.com/@julianhosp/post/DN69yfzkow9 Nutzen https://www.threads.com/@julianhosp/post/DN4QM1KkpRq Like das Video und hinterlasse ein Kommentar, wenn du ein weiteres willst. Folge Julian hier auf YouTube: Bleib mit meinem Newsletter Up to Date für nächste Dinge: https://bit.ly/newsletter_JH #finanzen #unternehmertum #performance #KI #kuenstlicheintelligenz

Skippy & Doogles break down the real story behind ETF performance. Then they dive into the wild Intel CEO saga — presidential shade, stock pops, and suspicious options trades. Finally, it's a deep-dive into the $1.3 trillion stock buyback frenzy: what's driving it, and should you care?In this episode:The hidden truth behind ETF returns (hint: they're worse than you think)Intel's geopolitical mess and the mysterious options tradeRecord stock buybacks: smart capital allocation or corporate cop-out?Why Apple could've bought 470 companies… but didn'tJoin the Skippy and Doogles fan club. You can also get more details about the show at skippydoogles.com, show notes on our Substack, and send comments or questions to skippydoogles@gmail.com.

In this episode, Marc Andreessen joins TBPN for an unfiltered conversation spanning everything from ads in LLMs to why Apple's AI strategy may be risky for anyone not named Apple.Marc breaks down the current state of AI: why open source is resurging, how foundational research is (or isn't) turning into product, and whether we've hit the moment when phones start to fade as dominant platforms. He also shares his candid thoughts on Meta's wearable wins, Vision Pro's imperfections, and how humor and deep research are his two favorite use cases for AI today.Timecodes:0:00 Intro  2:41  The Pace of AI and Technology Cycles  4:03  Research vs. Productization in AI Companies  5:15  Apple's Strategy: Last Mover Advantage  7:09  The Future Beyond Smartphones  10:23  Open Source AI: Progress and Challenges  13:49  Ads in AI: Business Models and User Experience  15:52  Legal Frameworks for AI and Data  17:53  Lightning Round: How Mark Uses AI  19:01  Breaking into Venture Capital in 2025  20:34  M&A, Survivorship Bias, and Company Resilience  ResourcesWatch TBPN: https://www.tbpn.com/Marc on X:   https://x.com/pmarcaMarc's Substack: https://pmarca.substack.com/

Dass Militärs mit Mathematikern zusammenarbeiten, kommt in der Geschichte öfter vor — so auch in den 1940er-Jahren: Weil das US-Militär sehr viele Verluste bei seiner Luftwaffe verzeichnet, wendet sich die US Air Force an Wissenschaftler, darunter auch an den rumänisch-US-amerikanischen Statistiker Abraham Wald. Es geht um die Frage: Wie soll die US-Luftwaffe ihre Flieger am besten verstärken, damit diese widerstandsfähiger werden? Nun könnte man meinen, die Air Force müsse einfach analysieren, wo die zurückgekehrten Flugzeuge am häufigsten getroffen wurden — und genau an den Stellen die Maschinen verstärken. Doch das ist ein Irrglaube, ein Denkfehler infolge des sogenannten Survivorship Bias. Quelle: https://detektor.fm/wissen/geschichten-aus-der-mathematik-survivorship-bias / Bitte abonniert den Original-Podcastfeed: https://feedpress.me/detektorfm_geschichten-aus-der-mathematik

Das US-amerikanische Militär hat im Zweiten Weltkrieg ein Problem: Viele Flieger ihrer Luftwaffe kehren gar nicht oder stark beschädigt zurück. Die US Air Force bittet den Mathematiker Abraham Wald um Hilfe: Er soll mit statistischen Methoden herausfinden, wie das Militär seine Flugzeuge sicherer machen kann. Manons „Spektrum“-Artikel zum Mythos um Abraham Wald und den Survivorship Bias lest ihr hier. Wer sich tiefer in das Thema einlesen möchte, kann das hier tun: Harold Hotelling: Abraham Wald. In: The American Statistician Vol. 5, No. 1 (1951) J. Wolfowitz: Abraham Wald, 1902-1950. In: The Annals of Mathematical Statistics Vol 3, No. 1 (1952) Marc Mangel and Francisco J. Samaniego: Abraham Wald’s Work on Aircraft Survivability. In: Journal of the American Statistical Association Vol. 79, No. 386 (1984) Die Idee für diesen Podcast hat Demian Nahuel Goos am MIP.labor entwickelt, der Ideenwerkstatt für Wissenschaftsjournalismus zu Mathematik, Informatik und Physik an der Freien Universität Berlin, ermöglicht durch die Klaus Tschira Stiftung. (00:00:00) Einleitung (00:03:41) Der Mythos um Abraham Wald (00:08:01) Der Survivorship Bias (00:10:06) Mit Statistik zu mehr Flugzeugsicherheit (00:14:25) Walds letzter Schicksalsschlag & Demians Ratschlag (00:16:29) Fazit & Verabschiedung >> Artikel zum Nachlesen: https://detektor.fm/wissen/geschichten-aus-der-mathematik-survivorship-bias

Das US-amerikanische Militär hat im Zweiten Weltkrieg ein Problem: Viele Flieger ihrer Luftwaffe kehren gar nicht oder stark beschädigt zurück. Die US Air Force bittet den Mathematiker Abraham Wald um Hilfe: Er soll mit statistischen Methoden herausfinden, wie das Militär seine Flugzeuge sicherer machen kann. Manons „Spektrum“-Artikel zum Mythos um Abraham Wald und den Survivorship Bias lest ihr hier. Wer sich tiefer in das Thema einlesen möchte, kann das hier tun: Harold Hotelling: Abraham Wald. In: The American Statistician Vol. 5, No. 1 (1951) J. Wolfowitz: Abraham Wald, 1902-1950. In: The Annals of Mathematical Statistics Vol 3, No. 1 (1952) Marc Mangel and Francisco J. Samaniego: Abraham Wald’s Work on Aircraft Survivability. In: Journal of the American Statistical Association Vol. 79, No. 386 (1984) Die Idee für diesen Podcast hat Demian Nahuel Goos am MIP.labor entwickelt, der Ideenwerkstatt für Wissenschaftsjournalismus zu Mathematik, Informatik und Physik an der Freien Universität Berlin, ermöglicht durch die Klaus Tschira Stiftung. (00:00:00) Einleitung (00:03:41) Der Mythos um Abraham Wald (00:08:01) Der Survivorship Bias (00:10:06) Mit Statistik zu mehr Flugzeugsicherheit (00:14:25) Walds letzter Schicksalsschlag & Demians Ratschlag (00:16:29) Fazit & Verabschiedung >> Artikel zum Nachlesen: https://detektor.fm/wissen/geschichten-aus-der-mathematik-survivorship-bias

TRY LINGODA TODAY - https://try.lingoda.com/ThinkingJuly⁠ $25 Lingoda Discount when you use the code THINKINGJULY - ⁠https://try.lingoda.com/ThinkingJuly Today, I want to talk about a bias that affects how we think about success. It's called survivorship bias, and it might be the reason you're feeling discouraged, unmotivated, or frustrated with your English. We'll look at what survivorship bias really is, explore some famous examples from history and business, and then dive into how it appears in the world of language learning. Most importantly, I'll give you practical advice to avoid this trap and keep moving forward with confidence. TRANSCRIPT - ⁠⁠https://thinkinginenglish.blog/2025/07/07/343-what-is-the-worlds-oldest-country-english-vocabulary-lesson/⁠ AD Free Episode - ⁠⁠⁠https://www.patreon.com/thinkinginenglish⁠⁠⁠ Thinking in English Bonus Podcast -⁠⁠⁠ https://www.patreon.com/collection/869866⁠⁠ YouTube Channel -⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.youtube.com/@thinkinginenglishpodcast⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠INSTAGRAM - thinkinginenglishpodcast (⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.instagram.com/thinkinginenglishpodcast/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠) ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Borough by Blue Dot Sessions Contact advertising@airwavemedia.com to advertise on Thinking in English. Thinking in English is part of the ⁠⁠⁠Airwave Media podcast network.⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Burnie and Ashley discuss carrying the burden, prolapsed chickens, stupid kid games, Roofball on ESPN, Tag The Movie, movie stars vs influencers, Scarlet Johansson's Instagram pressure, Milana Vayntrub's wildfire relief efforts, and China's fusion record. Support our podcast at: https://www.patreon.com/morningsomewhereFor the link dump visit: http://www.morningsomewhere.comFor merch, check out: http://store.morningsomewhere.com

A Note from James:"Are you a member of the river or the village? That's the question we're diving into today. Nate Silver—yes, the Nate Silver from 538—joins us with Maria Konnikova, a master of poker and decision-making. Members of the 'river,' as Nate describes, are rational thinkers. They make decisions based on probabilities and data, not emotions. So, are you in the river or the village? Because today, we're talking about how to think differently about risk—whether it's betting on an election, making an investment, or even figuring out how to navigate life. Here's what you need to know."Episode Description:In this episode, James Altucher brings together two brilliant minds: Nate Silver, known for his predictive prowess, and Maria Konnikova, a renowned psychologist and poker player. The trio delves into how they make calculated decisions when the stakes are high. With examples from poker, elections, and everyday life, they discuss how we can all navigate a world full of uncertainty. What does it mean to be a rational thinker? And how can understanding probabilities make you a better decision-maker? Join them as they explore strategies for improving your risk assessment, leveraging data, and making choices that keep you in the game longer.What You'll Learn:Risk Assessment Tools: How to analyze risk effectively using concepts from poker and data science.The River vs. The Village: Are you making rational decisions, or are you just playing it safe? Find out how to challenge your instincts.Understanding Probabilities: How to apply probabilistic thinking to everyday situations, from career moves to investments.Avoiding Cognitive Traps: Learn about common mental biases that can lead to poor decisions and how to overcome them.Betting on Your Choices: Practical advice on evaluating your options to maximize the chances of success.Timestamped Chapters:[01:30] – Are You a Member of the River or the Village?[03:21] – Meet the Guests: Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova[10:09] – Maria's Journey into Poker and Game Theory[14:59] – Understanding Risk and Decision Making[27:55] – The Challenge of Trust and Information in the Digital Age[31:04] – Nate's Transition from Poker to Election Forecasting[42:37] – The Evolution of Poker Strategy[54:15] – Betting Markets and Inefficiencies[1:00:58] – Decision Making and Risk in Poker and LifeAdditional Resources:Maria Konnikova's Book: The Biggest BluffNate Silver's Newsletter: The Silver BulletinMaria Konnikova's Newsletter: The LeapNate Silver's Book: On the EdgePodcast: Risky Business with Maria Konnikova and Nate Silver ------------What do YOU think of the show? Head to JamesAltucherShow.com/listeners and fill out a short survey that will help us better tailor the podcast to our audience!Are you interested in getting direct answers from James about your question on a podcast? Go to JamesAltucherShow.com/AskAltucher and send in your questions to be answered on the air!------------Visit Notepd.com to read our idea lists & sign up to create your own!My new book, Skip the Line, is out! Make sure you get a copy wherever books are sold!Join the You Should Run for President 2.0 Facebook Group, where we discuss why you should run for President.I write about all my podcasts! Check out the full post and learn what I learned at jamesaltuchershow.com------------Thank you so much for listening! If you like this episode, please rate, review, and subscribe to “The James Altucher Show” wherever you get your podcasts: Apple PodcastsiHeart RadioSpotifyFollow me on social media:YouTubeTwitterFacebookLinkedIn

Do you ever hear the crazy stories about how someone did something crazy, and it massively paid off? A wild investment idea. A trip to the casino. A funky-sounding business plan. Ideas that, on the surface, seem risky at best, and insane at worst. However, you continually hear success stories about them. It's disorienting. In today's episode, host Travis Shelton discusses survivorship bias and why it's wreaking havoc on our decision-making and psyche.  If you have questions or would like to connect with us outside of the podcast, here's where you can find us:  Instagram: ⁠https://www.instagram.com/meaning_over_money⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@meaning_over_money Daily Blog: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://travisshelton.com/blog⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠  Subscribe to the daily blog: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://shorturl.at/ipS35⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠  Podcast Facebook Group: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.facebook.com/groups/370457478238932⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠  Podcast website: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.travisshelton.com/podcast⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠  Travis's Instagram:  ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.instagram.com/travis_shelton_⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠  YouTube:  ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCasnj17-bOl_CZ0Cb9czmyQ

In this episode, hosts Dr. Grant Cooper and Dr. Zinovy Meyler engage with renowned cognitive psychologists Christopher Chabris and Daniel Simons to unravel the intricacies of memory, deception, and decision-making. They discuss how vivid but often inaccurate memories form, explore real-life scams including impersonators of the French Minister of Defense, and tackle psychological shortcuts like survivorship bias and confirmation bias. The conversation highlights the influence of AI and deepfakes on deception and offers practical advice to protect against scams, such as the use of family passwords for combating voice cloning. Additionally, they delve into decision-making traps, illustrated through examples like doctors' varied information processing. Through engaging anecdotes and their collaborative research from 'Nobody's Fool,' the episode provides insights into human cognition's limitations and the importance of recognizing and mitigating biases.(00:00) Introduction (04:20) Exploring the Mandela Effect  (06:43) The Fallibility of Memory  (16:15) Survivorship Bias in Decision-Making  (19:58) The Possibility Grid: Understanding Success and Failure  (26:36) Confirmation Bias and Scientific Errors  (38:50) The Time Reversal Heuristic  (39:50) Bias in Scientific Findings  (40:51) The Appeal of Counterintuitive Results  (42:45) Challenges in Replicating Studies  (43:46) The Reality of Social Priming  (46:28) Subliminal Perception and Its Limits  (47:34) Cognitive Training and Its Efficacy  (55:17) Chess Strategies Applied to Life  (57:09) The Importance of Asking Questions  (59:42) Avoiding Deception and Making Better Decisions  (01:04:27) The Role of Information in Decision Making  (01:09:04) ConclusionDaniel Simons and Christopher Chabris are renowned cognitive psychologists best known for their groundbreaking research on attention, perception, and cognitive illusions. Simons, a professor at the University of Illinois, and Chabris, a professor at Geisinger Health System, co-authored the influential book *The Invisible Gorilla*, which explores how our minds can overlook significant details, leading to surprising misconceptions. Their famous "invisible gorilla" experiment demonstrates how people can fail to notice obvious things when focused on specific tasks, revealing the limits of human attention and perception. Both researchers continue to investigate the fascinating ways in which our minds shape our experiences.#podcast #memory #decisionmaking #psychology #deception #mandelaeffect #interview #experts #brainscience #research #mind #cognitivescience #mentalhealth #MemoryStudy #SurvivorshipBiasThanks For WatchingSocials:YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCKPNCI1-HBSZmiHNAlAjiIwWebsite: https://www.performanceinitiativepodcast.com/Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/performanceinitiative

In this episode of The Brainy Business podcast, Melina Palmer welcomes Alex Edmonds, author of May Contain Lies, to discuss the fascinating intersection of finance, behavioral economics, and misinformation. Alex, a professor of finance at London Business School with a Ph.D. from MIT, delves into the impact of emotions on the stock market, using intriguing examples from his research, including the emotional effects of international sports results on stock market behavior.  Throughout the conversation, Alex and Melina explore the broader implications of emotional influences on decision-making in both personal finance and business contexts. They discuss the dangers of confirmation bias and black-and-white thinking, and Alex offers practical steps to overcome these biases. He also introduces his concept of the "ladder of misinference," illustrating how statements, facts, data, and evidence can be misinterpreted or misrepresented, leading to misleading conclusions. In this episode: Understanding the emotional impact of sports results on the stock market. The broader implications of emotional influences on decision-making. The dangers of confirmation bias and black-and-white thinking. Practical steps to overcome biases and make informed decisions. The "ladder of misinference" and avoiding missteps in interpreting data. Show Notes: 00:00:00 - Introduction Melina introduces Alex Edmonds, author of "May Contain Lies," and outlines the episode's focus on emotions, decision-making, and misinformation. 00:01:45 - Alex's Background Alex shares his background in finance and behavioral economics, emphasizing his passion for conveying academic insights to a general audience. 00:06:10 - Dissertation Research Alex discusses his dissertation on the impact of emotions, particularly sports results, on the stock market, highlighting the significant emotional effects on trading behavior. 00:12:55 - Broader Implications Melina and Alex explore the broader implications of emotional influences on decision-making in personal finance and business, emphasizing the importance of acknowledging and managing emotions. 00:19:15 - Confirmation Bias Alex explains confirmation bias and its impact on how people respond to evidence and data, using examples from sustainable investing and other fields. 00:26:30 - Black-and-White Thinking Alex introduces black-and-white thinking as a twin bias to confirmation bias, illustrating how extreme viewpoints can overshadow nuanced understanding. 00:34:45 - Ladder of Misinference Alex outlines the "ladder of misinference," explaining how statements, facts, data, and evidence can be misinterpreted, leading to misleading conclusions. 00:43:10 - Practical Tips for Individuals Alex offers practical tips for individuals to overcome biases, including imagining the opposite result to challenge confirmation bias. 00:46:00 - Conclusion What stuck with you while listening to the episode? What are you going to try? Come share it with Melina on social media -- you'll find her as @thebrainybiz everywhere and as Melina Palmer on LinkedIn. Thanks for listening. Don't forget to subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Android. If you like what you heard, please leave a review on iTunes and share what you liked about the show.  I hope you love everything recommended via The Brainy Business! Everything was independently reviewed and selected by me, Melina Palmer. So you know, as an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases. That means if you decide to shop from the links on this page (via Amazon or others), The Brainy Business may collect a share of sales or other compensation. Let's connect: Melina@TheBrainyBusiness.com The Brainy Business® on Facebook The Brainy Business on Twitter The Brainy Business on Instagram The Brainy Business on LinkedIn Melina on LinkedIn The Brainy Business on Youtube Connect with Alex: Alex on X  Alex on LinkedIn   Alex's Website Learn and Support The Brainy Business: Check out and get your copies of Melina's Books.  Get the Books Mentioned on (or related to) this Episode: Foolproof, by Sander van der Linden May Contain Lies, by Alex Edmans How Minds Change, by David McRaney Decisions Over Decimals, by Christopher Frank, Paul Magnone and Oded Netzer What Your Employees Need and Can't Tell You, by Melina Palmer Top Recommended Next Episode: Confirmation Bias (ep 260) Already Heard That One? Try These:  Sander van der Linden Interview (ep 337) Focusing Illusion (ep 330) Survivorship Bias (ep 400) Christian Madsbjerg Interview (ep 325) David McRaney Interview (ep 210) Other Important Links:  Brainy Bites - Melina's LinkedIn Newsletter TED: What to Trust in a “Post Truth” World TEDx: The Pie Growing Mindset

In episode 419 of The Brainy Business podcast, Dr. Ruth Gotian, co-author of the Financial Times Guide to Mentoring, shares her extensive expertise on mentorship and leadership development with host Melina Palmer. Ruth, who serves as the Chief Learning Officer and Associate Professor of Education in Anesthesiology at Weill Cornell Medicine, is a globally recognized expert in mentorship, hailed by institutions like Nature, Wall Street Journal, and Columbia University. She discusses the vital role of mentorship in achieving success and the importance of having a team of mentors to guide and support high achievers. Throughout the conversation, Ruth delves into the four elements of success from her book, The Success Factor, and emphasizes the significance of intrinsic motivation, overcoming challenges, continuous learning, and the power of mentorship. She also provides practical insights into the differences between mentors, coaches, role models, and sponsors, and how each plays a unique role in personal and professional development. This episode is packed with valuable takeaways for anyone looking to enhance their success through effective mentorship and leadership strategies. In this episode: Understand the four key elements of success for high achievers. Differentiate between mentors, coaches, role models, and sponsors. Learn how to effectively seek and engage with mentors. Implement successful mentorship programs within organizations. Recognize the benefits of both being a mentor and having a mentor. Show Notes: 00:00:00 - Introduction Melina Palmer introduces Dr. Ruth Gotian and sets the stage for an insightful conversation on mentorship and leadership development. 00:01:30 - Ruth's Background Ruth shares her background and journey, including her roles at Weill Cornell Medicine and her recognition as a top mentor and emerging management thinker. 00:04:20 - The Success Factor Ruth discusses the four elements of success found in high achievers: intrinsic motivation, overcoming challenges, continuous learning, and mentorship. 00:10:15 - Mentorship and Its Importance The conversation explores the critical role of mentorship in achieving success and how high achievers leverage mentors to guide and support them. 00:14:45 - Differentiating Mentorship Roles Ruth explains the differences between mentors, coaches, role models, and sponsors, and the unique contributions each makes to personal and professional growth. 00:19:30 - Effective Mentorship Strategies Practical advice on how to seek out mentors, engage with them effectively, and the importance of being specific and time-bound in mentorship requests. 00:24:00 - Organizational Mentorship Programs Tips for implementing successful mentorship programs within organizations, including the benefits of group mentoring and creating opportunities for organic mentor-mentee matches. 00:30:10 - Reverse Mentoring and Continuous Learning The concept of reverse mentoring and how both mentors and mentees can learn from each other, fostering a culture of continuous learning and development. 00:35:20 - The Value of Networking and Building Relationships Ruth shares insights on the importance of networking, asking good questions, and building meaningful relationships through thoughtful engagement. 00:40:05 - Conclusion What stuck with you while listening to the episode? What are you going to try? Come share it with Melina on social media -- you'll find her as @thebrainybiz everywhere and as Melina Palmer on LinkedIn. Thanks for listening. Don't forget to subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Android. If you like what you heard, please leave a review on iTunes and share what you liked about the show.  I hope you love everything recommended via The Brainy Business! Everything was independently reviewed and selected by me, Melina Palmer. So you know, as an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases. That means if you decide to shop from the links on this page (via Amazon or others), The Brainy Business may collect a share of sales or other compensation. Let's connect: Melina@TheBrainyBusiness.com The Brainy Business® on Facebook The Brainy Business on Twitter The Brainy Business on Instagram The Brainy Business on LinkedIn Melina on LinkedIn The Brainy Business on Youtube Connect with Ruth: Ruth on LinkedIn Ruth on X Learn and Support The Brainy Business: Check out and get your copies of Melina's Books.  Get the Books Mentioned on (or related to) this Episode: The Ultimate Guide to Great Mentorship, by Scott Miller The Success Factor, by Ruth Gotian Mentoring, by Dr. Ruth Gotian and Andy Lopata What Your Employees Need and Can't Tell You, by Melina Palmer Let's Talk, by Therese Huston Top Recommended Next Episode: Scott Miller Interview (ep 307) Already Heard That One? Try These:  Kurt Nelson Interview (ep 187) Reciprocity (ep 238) Adjusting Your Mindset — Overcome Imposter Syndrome (ep 306) Scott Miller Interview (ep 307) Survivorship Bias (ep 400) Other Important Links:  Brainy Bites - Melina's LinkedIn Newsletter Conversations with Ruth Gotian

Was haben wir alle mit Crashpropheten gemeinsam? Wir machen ständig Denkfehler beim Investieren. Das ist völlig menschlich. In dieser Podcastfolge stellen wir dir 15 häufige Denkfehler vor, damit du sie beim Investieren vermeiden kannst. ➡️ Zur LINKBOX (Links zu unseren Produkten und Werbepartnern): https://www.finanzfluss.de/podcast-linkbox/ ℹ️ Weitere Infos zur Folge: Diese Folge als Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pCb_hrCuUx4 Publikation zu den Denkfehlern: https://revistia.com/files/articles/ejmn_v4_i1_21/Dervishaj.pdf

DescriptionThis episode explores creative leadership techniques that drive outcomes as well as the pitfalls of survivorship bias in building a product. Kelsey Nichols discusses her unconventional path into product management and building a product way of thinking that focuses on failure patterns and how to adapt.Show Notes (0:05) - Introduction to the podcast and hosts(0:57) - Welcome to Kelsey Nichols, CTO at Landing(1:07) - Kelsey describes her career journey from PE teacher to engineer to product manager and back to engineering(3:36) - Kelsey talks about her transition from engineering to product management(8:14) - The benefits of having a diverse background in product development(9:33) - The event that led Kelsey to focus more on the "why" of product development(10:57) - Areas where product leaders might miss the mark according to Kelsey's experience on the engineering team(13:19) - Challenges of integrating a new product team and common friction points(14:36) - Building a product department from the ground up and how it's similar to building a product(16:33) - Initial challenges and concerns about the success of the product department at Landing(17:40) - Why looking at failures can be just as valuable as looking at successes (concept of survivorship bias)(21:15) - The importance of embracing failure and creating a safe space for experimentation(23:34) - Kelsey's experience as the longest-standing product leader at Landing (in jest)(24:29) - The importance of creating a safe space for product development(25:12) - The reality of failure and success rates in product development(25:28) - Transitioning from Engineer to Product Leader(28:34) - The Danger of Saying No in Product Management (29:03) - Creative Strategies for Handling Feature Requests (32:18) - Building Relationships with Stakeholders (34:33) - The Importance of Business and Customer Focus(36:09) - Problem-Solving as a Core Skill (36:58) - The Value of Customer Research (38:21) - Learning from Mistakes

Welcome to the 400th episode of The Brainy Business podcast! In this milestone episode, Melina Palmer delves into the intriguing concept of survivorship bias, a critical thinking error that can significantly impact decision-making in business and personal life. Through engaging storytelling, Melina takes us back to World War II to uncover the origins of this concept and how it played a crucial role in military strategy.  She then brings the concept into contemporary contexts, illustrating how survivorship bias leads us to overvalue success stories while ignoring the vital lessons from failures. This episode not only celebrates our podcast's journey but also equips you with practical insights to recognize and overcome survivorship bias in your ventures. Join Melina as she explores this bias's profound implications on entrepreneurship, business strategies, and everyday decisions, helping you make more informed choices.  In this episode: Understand how survivorship bias impacts business success and decision-making. Explore the powerful influence of behavioral economics on shaping strategic choices in business. Discover effective strategies to overcome survivorship bias and drive more informed decision-making. Differentiate between correlation and causation in business strategies to make more impactful choices. Uncover the success factors that extend beyond survivorship bias and drive sustained business growth. Show Notes: 00:00:00 - Introduction Melina introduces the concept of survivorship bias and its relevance to business decisions. She emphasizes the impact of this bias on entrepreneurs and its influence on decision-making in various roles across industries. 00:04:08 - Abraham Wald and World War Two Melina delves into the story of Abraham Wald, a mathematician who discovered survivorship bias during World War Two. She highlights the significance of Wald's analysis of bullet holes on planes and the crucial insights it provided on reinforcing strategic spots. 00:09:16 - The Fallacy of Survivorship Bias The discussion focuses on the fallacy of survivorship bias in seeking advice for success. Melina provides examples of how survivorship bias leads to misconceptions about causation and correlation, using narratives of successful individuals as illustrations. 00:11:31 - Business Applications of Survivorship Bias Melina explores the business applications of survivorship bias and its implications for decision-making. She emphasizes the complexity of success and the dangers of assuming a one-size-fits-all approach based on survivorship bias. 00:13:56 - Correlation vs. Causation The conversation delves into the distinction between correlation and causation, highlighting the misconceptions that arise from survivorship bias. Melina illustrates the importance of discerning causation for making informed decisions in business and life. 00:15:46 - Survivorship Bias in Conclusions Not all successful CEOs wake up at 05:00 a.m. Correlation doesn't imply causation. It's important to consider all data points and not draw conclusions based on one aspect. 00:16:21 - Success and Failure in Publishing For every popular book, there are a million unsuccessful books and authors. It takes trial and error and hard work to succeed. Learn from others' experiences and determine what works for your goals. 00:18:07 - The Illusion of the Best Product The best products don't always lead the market. Being the best or first doesn't guarantee success. Look at all possible data points and consider what's missing for your business venture. 00:19:55 - Customer Feedback and Satisfaction Customer satisfaction surveys may not capture all feedback. Consider the concerns of those who didn't choose your business. Look beyond extreme examples and aim for a complete data set for feedback. 00:23:49 - Openness to Unexpected Findings Be open to the things you aren't looking for. Anomalies and unconventional ideas could lead to valuable insights. Consider reframing questions and exploring untested areas to avoid survivorship bias. 00:24:48 - Conclusion What stuck with you while listening to the episode? What are you going to try? Come share it with Melina on social media -- you'll find her as @thebrainybiz everywhere and as Melina Palmer on LinkedIn. Thanks for listening. Don't forget to subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Android. If you like what you heard, please leave a review on iTunes and share what you liked about the show.  I hope you love everything recommended via The Brainy Business! Everything was independently reviewed and selected by me, Melina Palmer. So you know, as an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases. That means if you decide to shop from the links on this page (via Amazon or others), The Brainy Business may collect a share of sales or other compensation. Let's connect: Melina@TheBrainyBusiness.com The Brainy Business® on Facebook The Brainy Business on Twitter The Brainy Business on Instagram The Brainy Business on LinkedIn Melina on LinkedIn The Brainy Business on Youtube Learn and Support The Brainy Business: Check out and get your copies of Melina's Books.  Get the Books Mentioned on (or related to) this Episode: How to Change, by Katy Milkman What Your Employees Need and Can't Tell You, by Melina Palmer Alchemy, by Rory Sutherland The Invisible Gorilla, by Christopher Chabris and Daniel Simons Nobody's Fool, by Christopher Chabris and Daniel Simons Top Recommended Next Episode: David McRaney Interview (ep 336) Already Heard That One? Try These:  Hindsight Bias (ep 167) What Your Employees Need and Can't Tell You (ep 225) Jonah Berger Interview (ep 301) Warren Berger Interview (ep 340) Cass Sunstein Interview (ep 371) Other Important Links:  Brainy Bites - Melina's LinkedIn Newsletter What Every Founder Needs to Know About Survivorship Bias Why It's So Hard To Succeed – The Survivorship Bias You are missing something! – Survivorship bias 7 Lessons on Survivorship Bias that Will Help You Make Better Decisions How the Survivor Bias Distorts Reality Survivorship Bias: The Tale of Forgotten Failures Missing what's missing: How survivorship bias skews our perception The College Dropout Problem Hilarious Graphs Prove That Correlation Isn't Causation The 10 Most Bizarre Correlations

Episode #316. Overeating is not your fault. But it is in your control – just not in the way you might think. Learn how to overcome food addiction in this conversation with psychiatrist, neuroscientist, and self-mastery expert, Dr Jud Brewer. Learn Dr Brewer's secret to gaining control over your eating habits (and no, it's not willpower). Discover why we overeat, the reason you can't break bad habits, and how to take back your power over food as we unpack the science of behavioural change. Specifically, we discuss: Introduction: Understanding the Brain and Habit Formation (00:13) Key Elements of Habit Formation (02:55) The Brain's Role in Decision-Making and Habit Change (10:02) The Impact of Awareness and Mindfulness on Habit Change (14:58) Analysing Eating Habits and the Food Environment (24:35) Survivorship Bias in Successful Habit Change (27:36) Emotional Eating and Coping Mechanisms (31:17) Addressing Guilt, Shame, and Systemic Failures (36:24) Environmental Influences on Eating Patterns (41:18) Breaking Negative Eating Habits: Weight Loss Journey (49:00) Effective Strategies to Stop Destructive Habits: Breathwork (58:53) The Role of Psychedelics and Meditation in Overcoming Negative Eating Habits (1:01:24) How the Brain Changes When We Modify Eating Habits (1:04:36) Pharmacology vs. Mindfulness: Which Is More Effective? (1:07:57) Practical Tips to Overcome Night Cravings (1:19:10) Measuring Success in Habit Change (1:28:50) Debunking the 21-Day Habit Formation Myth (1:34:51) Conclusion and Final Thoughts (1:35:54) Connect with Dr Jud Brewer on Instagram, Twitter/X, YouTube, and Threads. Learn more about Dr Brewer on his website, https://drjud.com/, where you can also order his latest book, The Hunger Habit. This episode is brought to you by: InsideTracker If you want to improve your health, you need to measure where you're currently at. InsideTracker analyses up to 48 blood biomarkers including ApoB, LDL, HDL, A1C, and more before giving you advice to optimise your health. Get a 20% discount on your first order at insidetracker.com/simon. Sun Home Saunas Invest in your body and mind with Sun Home Saunas, pioneers in crafting premium saunas and cold plunges. Safe, effective, research-backed wellness tools to improve cardiovascular health, offer psychological benefits, and reduce muscle soreness. Head to sunhomesaunas.com/theproof for $300 off your purchase. Momentous My go-to supplement brand for protein and creatine is Momentous. Get 36% off subscriptions, and 20% off one-off purchases, by using the code LIVINGPROOF at checkout at livemomentous.com Cozy Earth Sleep better and cooler with Cozy Earth, the softest science-backed sheets on the market. With a 10-year warranty, 100-day trial period, and ethical production, Cozy Earth is my favourite easy way to improve my rest and recovery. Use code SIMON at cozyearth.com for up to 35% off. Eimele Use code SIMON at checkout for 10% off your first order. 38TERA Use code THEPROOF for a discount at checkout. WHOOP Claim your first month free on join.whoop.com/simon. Want to support the show? The best way to support the show is to use the products and services offered by our sponsors. To check them out, and enjoy great savings, visit theproof.com/friends. You can also show your support by leaving a review on the Apple Podcast app and/or sharing your favourite episodes with your friends and family. Simon Hill, MSc, BSc (Hons) Creator of theproof.com and host of The Proof with Simon Hill Author of The Proof is in the Plants Watch the episodes on YouTube or listen on Apple/Spotify Connect with me on Instagram, Twitter, and Facebook Nourish your gut with my Plant-Based Ferments Guide Download my complimentary Two-Week Meal Plan and high protein Plant Performance recipe book

We've all heard successful creators complain that younger hopefuls "just don't want to do the hard work." They disregard the complicated nature of achieving their status and dismiss aspiring novices on the basis of one single factor. Survivorship bias is undoubtedly a result of flawed reasoning. ...But is it bad advice?Brad and Dave discuss survivorship bias in the creative community and its impact on success. They acknowledge that survivorship bias exists but argue that it is not the sole determinant of success. They emphasize the importance of hard work, honing skills, and making adjustments based on feedback. They also discuss external factors that can impact a creative career, such as personal circumstances and societal biases. The hosts share their own experiences and offer advice for aspiring creators. In this part of the conversation, the hosts discuss the importance of perseverance and being consistent in order to achieve success in comics.Also, they also address the question of working below one's artistic skill level and offer advice on finding a style that balances speed and quality. The hosts then share their thoughts on the transition from traditional to digital art, including the benefits and drawbacks of each. Finally, they discuss the value of selling original art and the potential challenges of leaving a legacy through physical artwork.ON TODAY'S SHOWSurvival biasWorking below your artistic skill levelLeaving original art in favor of digitalCHAPTERS00:00:00Introduction: Dumpster Pools in Philadelphia00:05:37Chapter 1: Understanding Survivorship Bias00:13:06Chapter 2: The Importance of Hard Work and Skill Development00:22:52Chapter 4: Challenging Survivorship Bias and Acknowledging Others' Struggles00:26:57Chapter 5: Advice for Aspiring Creators: Listen, Learn, and Adapt00:31:03Perseverance and Consistency00:34:31Working Below Your Skill Level00:46:24Transition to Digital Art00:48:08Selling Original Art00:56:29Leaving a Legacy Through ArtworkTAKEAWAYSSurvivorship bias exists in the creative community, but it is not the only factor that determines success.Hard work, honing skills, and making adjustments based on feedback are crucial for success.External factors, such as personal circumstances and societal biases, can impact a creative career.It is important to be aware of survivorship bias and not dismiss the challenges faced by others.Listening to advice from experienced creators and being open to course corrections can increase the chances of success. Perseverance and consistency are key to achieving success in comics.Finding a balance between speed and quality is important when working below your artistic skill level.Transitioning from traditional to digital art offers benefits in terms of control and quality.Selling original art can be a way to generate income and share your work with others.Leaving a legacy through physical artwork may not always be practical or desired by loved ones. You get great rewards when you join the ComicLab Community on Patreon$2 — Early access to episodes$5 — Submit a question for possible use on the show AND get the exclusive ProTips podcast. Plus $2-tier rewards.Brad Guigar is the creator of Evil Inc and the author of The Webcomics Handbook. Dave Kellett is the creator of Sheldon and Drive.

Are we just fans of old architecture because of what has survived? Have beautiful bad homes just not survived and thats why we are where we are today? What will be said about this generation of homes?

rational vc Key Takeaways  People often underestimate the role of chance in their achievementsMild success can be explainable by skill, but wild success is attributable to variance In the long run, the “lucky” regress to the mean Understand Power Laws when investing; the wins of a few investments make up for the losses on many investments, and then some Survivorship Bias: the tendency to focus on successful individuals without considering those who failed due to random factors The probability of the loss must be judged in connection with the magnitude of the outcome; it is not the likelihood of an event that matters, but the magnitude of the outcome in connection with the likelihood of the event that does  Maximizing the probability of winning does not maximize the expected value from the game The confidence in which you make your decision is more important than the expected value that comes from that decision A mistake is not something to be determined after the fact, but in the light of the information until that point Read the full notes @ podcastnotes.orgEvery podcast episode we explore a Lindy book, and find ideas you can use in business and life. Join 3,000+ curious minds and avid readers @ rationalvc.com to get free access to essays and exclusive content. For the video version of episode click here.   Timestamps: (00:00) Intro / chit-chat (20:11) Randomness & Luck (24:46) Monte Carlo Simulation (31:09) Ergodicity (31:39) Hindsight Bias (38:00) Survivorship Bias (39:50) Asymmetric Bets / John & Nero (49:53) Skewness & Asymmetry (57:19) Pascal's Wager (1:00:53) Induction & Chaos Theory (1:03:22) Chapter 11 (1:08:45) System-1 vs System-2 Thinking (1:10:03) Satisficing (1:20:08) Normative vs Positive Thinking (1:25:52) Signal vs Noise (1:28:20) Heuristics (1:33:45) Final Part of Book (Part 3's Importance) (1:44:41) Favourite Quotes / Our Lives (2:06:11) Final Thoughts - Our website (all essays and podcasts): rationalvc.com  Our investment fund: rational.fund  Cyrus' Twitter: x.com/CyrusYari  Iman's Twitter: x.com/iman_olya -   Disclaimer: The materials provided are solely for informational or entertainment purposes and do not constitute investment or legal advice. All opinions expressed by hosts and guests are solely their own opinions and do not reflect the opinion of their employer(s). #Lindy #knowledge #books

People use numbers to convince, persuade, and even sometimes to manipulate or fool others. This mini-series will help you recognize them! When you can recognize the foolishness, you won't get fooled by it! Want to test yourself on how well you can recognize fallacies in real life? Take the Meme Fallacy Quiz! www.filteritthroughabraincell.com/quiz Learn more about Crazy Thinkers: www.filteritthroughabraincell.com/crazy Here's how you can purchase the Logical Fallacies ebook: https://www.filteritthroughabraincell.com/offers/z6xbAcB2 Send me any questions, comments or even the fallacies you're seeing around you! think@filteritthroughabraincell.com Or, tag me on Instagram: @filteritthroughabraincell Sign up on my email list at: www.filteritthroughabraincell.com/contact To take the YouScience Talent Assessment: Website: https://www.wellspentsolutions.com/discoverregistration Get 20% off with discount code FILTERIT20 Thank you to our sponsor, CTC Math! Website: https://www.ctcmath.com/?tr_id=brain Homeschool page: https://www.ctcmath.com/how-it-works/home-school?tr_id=brain Free trail: https://www.ctcmath.com/trial?tr_id=brain Special offer! Get 1/2-off discounts plus bonus 6-months free! https://www.ctcmath.com/purchase/homeschool50?tr_id=BRAIN

In this episode of The Brainy Business podcast, host Melina Palmer invites Dr. Ian Robertson, a clinical psychologist, neuroscientist, and author, to delve into the psychology of confidence. With his expertise in understanding how individuals and organizations adapt to change, Ian explores the malleability of confidence and its impact on our lives. He emphasizes that confidence is a belief that can be learned and developed, not solely determined by genetics or brain structure.  Throughout the conversation, Ian shares practical strategies for building confidence, such as setting achievable goals and reframing emotions. He also discusses the role of leaders in fostering collective confidence within teams and highlights the importance of vulnerability, trust-building, and open communication. By understanding the psychology of confidence and implementing the strategies discussed, individuals can boost their confidence and empower themselves in both personal and professional settings. In this episode: Discover the psychology behind confidence and unlock your true potential. Embrace failure as a valuable learning tool to achieve personal and professional growth. Learn how to reframe your emotions to enhance performance and achieve your goals. Start building your confidence one small step at a time and witness the positive impact in your life. Explore the power of collective confidence in leadership and its impact on teams and organizations. Show Notes: 00:00:00 - Introduction, In this episode, Melina Palmer introduces Dr. Ian Robertson, a clinical psychologist and author of How Confidence Works. They discuss the significance of confidence in shaping individuals' lives and how it can be learned and developed. 00:03:05 - Mind vs. Brain Ian explains the difference between the mind and the brain, using the analogy of hardware and software in a computer. While the brain is the physical structure, the mind refers to the software that shapes our thoughts, behaviors, and emotions. He emphasizes that the mind and brain are interconnected and that changes in the mind can have significant effects on the brain. 00:07:33 - The Impact of Confidence on Success Ian discusses the long-term consequences of confidence, using the example of two five-year-old girls with similar abilities. Even a slight difference in confidence can lead to divergent paths and advantages later in life. Confidence not only boosts individual performance but also influences relationships and social dynamics. 00:10:11 - Building Confidence While sudden shifts in confidence, as portrayed in movies, are rare, Ian explains that confidence is built through specific behaviors and tangible successes. The process involves setting proximal goals, gradually stretching oneself, and experiencing a sense of achievement. Slow progress and small successes form the foundation for increased confidence. 00:17:22 - The Benefits of Failure Failure is a better teacher than success as it allows for reflection and learning. Failure can be a threat to the ego, but adopting a growth mindset can help in addressing and learning from failures. 00:18:59 - The Importance of Self-Reflection Self-reflection is crucial for learning from failure. By analyzing the causes of failure, one can gain insights and make improvements in various areas such as skills development, time management, and market understanding. 00:20:15 - Taking Action Despite Failure Taking action in spite of failure builds confidence and resilience. By embracing failure as a friend and focusing on the process rather than negative self-scrutiny, one can overcome the fear of failure and continue moving forward. 00:21:41 - Shifting Perspectives and Emotions Emotions such as anxiety and excitement have similar physical responses in the body. By reframing anxiety as excitement, one can change their mindset from a threat to a challenge. This shift in perspective can improve performance and boost confidence. 00:27:44 - Overcoming Anxiety and Building Confidence Overcoming anxiety by taking action in spite of it can lead to increased confidence. Treating anxiety as an arousal rather than a negative emotion allows one to harness it and focus on internal goals, leading to a sense of accomplishment and improved performance. 00:34:32 - The Importance of Taking Action Overcoming anxiety and fear requires taking action, even when your confidence is low. Start with small steps and gradually work towards your goals. 00:35:27 - Controlling Attention for Confidence What you pay attention to determines your motivation and emotions. Focus on future success rather than possible failure. Set achievable goals and celebrate small wins along the way. 00:37:28 - Collective Confidence in Teams A confident leader can inadvertently drain the confidence of others in a group. To build collective confidence, leaders should ensure equal participation, improve emotional intelligence, and include a diverse range of perspectives. 00:40:08 - The Role of Values in Confidence Clear values shared by a group enhance cohesion and collective confidence. Leaders should foster a sense of unity and trust by promoting a common set of values among team members. 00:44:47 - Avoiding Narcissism and Practicing Humility Success is often influenced by luck and chance factors. Leaders and parents must remain humble and grateful, avoiding narcissism, to inspire and motivate others without diminishing their confidence. 00:45:36 -  Conclusion, Melina's top insights from the conversation. What stuck with you while listening to the episode? What are you going to try? Come share it with Melina on social media -- you'll find her as @thebrainybiz everywhere and as Melina Palmer on LinkedIn. Thanks for listening. Don't forget to subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Android. If you like what you heard, please leave a review on iTunes and share what you liked about the show.  I hope you love everything recommended via The Brainy Business! Everything was independently reviewed and selected by me, Melina Palmer. So you know, as an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases. That means if you decide to shop from the links on this page (via Amazon or others), The Brainy Business may collect a share of sales or other compensation. Let's connect: Melina@TheBrainyBusiness.com The Brainy Business® on Facebook The Brainy Business on Twitter The Brainy Business on Instagram The Brainy Business on LinkedIn Melina on LinkedIn The Brainy Business on Youtube Connect with Ian: His Website LinkedIn Twitter Learn and Support The Brainy Business: Check out and get your copies of Melina's Books.  Get the Books Mentioned on (or related to) this Episode: How Confidence Works, by Ian Robertson The Winner Effect, by Ian Robertson Think Faster, Talk Smarter, by Matt Abrahams The Truth About Pricing, by Melina Palmer What Your Employees Need and Can't Tell You, by Melina Palmer Top Recommended Next Episode: DOSE Brain Chemicals (ep 360) Already Heard That One? Try These:  Framing (ep 296) Imposter Syndrome (ep 306) Bundling Offers (ep 354) How to Pitch Your Business (ep 326) Matt Abrahams Interview (ep 327) Optimism Bias (ep 34) Focusing Illusion (ep 330) Priming (ep 252) Counterfactual Thinking (ep 286) Prefactual Thinking (ep 232) Survivorship Bias (ep 110) Chris Rawlinson Interview (ep 193) Vulnerability Loops (ep 229) Other Important Links:  Brainy Bites - Melina's LinkedIn Newsletter

In this episode of The Brainy Business podcast, you will learn from Priscilla McKinney about the power of collaboration in business. Priscilla emphasizes the mindset shift required for successful collaborations. She highlights the importance of embracing different perspectives, being prepared for unexpected situations, and thinking on your feet. Priscilla also discusses the value of connections and networking, sharing her own collaboration with host Melina Palmer at an event. They demonstrate that collaboration can exist even among competitors, bringing unique perspectives and ideas to the table.  Priscilla's book, Collaboration is the New Competition, provides practical guidance on fostering collaboration within organizations. By shifting from competition to collaboration, businesses can thrive in today's interconnected world. Key takeaways include understanding people's behavior in marketing, the value of collaboration in business success, the power of networking, and the need for differentiation. This engaging and thought-provoking conversation highlights collaboration as a key driver of innovation, growth, and success in business. In this episode: Enhance collaboration and foster partnerships for increased business success. Unlock the power of mindset to drive effective collaboration. Build valuable connections through strategic networking. Shift from scarcity to abundance mindset for greater collaboration opportunities. Harness the power of differentiation to drive successful collaborations. Show Notes: 00:00:00 - Introduction, Introduction to the episode and guest, Priscilla McKinney, who is the author of Collaboration is the New Competition. 00:02:06 - Background and Expertise Priscilla shares her background as the CEO of Little Bird Marketing and her experience in anthropology. She emphasizes the importance of understanding people and culture in marketing. 00:05:01 - Personal Experiences and Cultural Anthropology Priscilla discusses how her personal experiences as a missionary's child and living in different countries shaped her understanding of collaboration, culture, and the importance of getting along. 00:07:39 - Collaboration and Marketing Priscilla explains the connection between collaboration, marketing, behavioral science, and cultural anthropology. She highlights the role of collaboration in building strong relationships and achieving success in business. 00:09:52 - Origin of Collaboration The discussion revolves around Melina's collaboration with Maru Group and Protobrand, where Will Leach connected her as the MC. They emphasize the value of collaboration and how it can overcome competition. 00:16:09 - The Value of Collaboration Priscilla discusses the value of collaboration and how her early experiences in the credit union industry taught her the importance of cooperation and sharing ideas. She emphasizes the abundance mindset and the willingness of credit unions to help each other thrive. 00:17:30 - The Power of Networking Priscilla and Melina highlight their shared experiences in the banking and credit union industry. They highlight the importance of surrounding yourself with like-minded people who are willing to collaborate and share knowledge. Priscilla emphasizes the cooperative nature of the market research industry. 00:18:57 - Opening Minds to Collaboration Priscilla encourages readers to open their minds to collaboration and challenges them to rethink their previous experiences with it. She suggests that what people may have considered collaboration in the past may not have been true collaboration. She invites readers to give it another try. 00:20:21 - Collaboration Gone Wrong Priscilla discusses the common pitfalls of collaboration, using the example of a group project in which one student ends up doing all the work while others take credit. She emphasizes the need for equity, transparency, and a desire to win for true collaboration to occur. 00:24:24 - The Framework for Collaboration Priscilla outlines the three essential elements for successful collaboration: having something to lose and gain, being transparent and open, and having a desire to win for the benefit of all involved. 00:30:49 - Moving from Scarcity to Abundance Mindset Priscilla discusses the importance of shifting from a scarcity mindset to an abundance mindset. Instead of always trying to get their way, she encourages a mindset of helping others and believing that everyone can achieve their goals. 00:31:26 - Itchy Backs - Cultivating a Helping Mindset Priscilla explains the concept of "itchy backs," where you focus on meeting the needs of others. By being aware of what others need and offering help, you can build strong relationships and collaboration opportunities. 00:34:31 - The Rule of 15 - Inspiring Collaboration Priscilla introduces the Rule of 15, which emphasizes the importance of creating content that inspires collaboration. Building relationships takes time, and it's essential to pay it forward and show genuine interest in others before expecting collaboration opportunities. 00:35:53 - LinkedIn Cocktail Party - Shifting Mindset Priscilla suggests thinking of LinkedIn as an online cocktail party rather than just a social media platform. She highlights the importance of showing up correctly, curating a great guest list, and being a good conversationalist to build meaningful connections. 00:38:59 - Avoiding Pitch Slapping - Building Relationships Priscilla discusses the negative impact of pitch-slapping, where people immediately try to sell or pitch their services without building a relationship first. She encourages being mindful of etiquette and building relationships before asking for anything. 00:44:49 - Collaboration and Feedback on the Book Priscilla discusses her book and invites Melina to read it and provide feedback for the second edition. They encourage listeners to connect with Priscilla on LinkedIn and check out her website to get a copy of the book and share it with others. 00:45:17 - Continued Collaboration and Friendship Melina expresses her enjoyment of talking with Priscilla and their ongoing collaboration. Priscilla is referred to as a friend of the podcast forever, and Melina offers her support for any future collaborations. 00:45:47 - Supporting the Podcast Priscilla encourages listeners to give an amazing rating to the Brainy Business podcast as a way to support Melina and help more people find the show. She emphasizes the importance of leading with giving and suggests this as a good deed for the day. 00:46:19 - Treating LinkedIn Like a Cocktail Party Melina recalls Priscilla's session at the IIEX Europe Conference where she talked about treating LinkedIn like a cocktail party. She mentions the relatability and engagement of the session and expresses her excitement about discussing it in Priscilla's book. 00:47:11 -  Conclusion, Melina's top insights from the conversation. What stuck with you while listening to the episode? What are you going to try? Come share it with Melina on social media -- you'll find her as @thebrainybiz everywhere and as Melina Palmer on LinkedIn. Thanks for listening. Don't forget to subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Android. If you like what you heard, please leave a review on iTunes and share what you liked about the show.  I hope you love everything recommended via The Brainy Business! Everything was independently reviewed and selected by me, Melina Palmer. So you know, as an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases. That means if you decide to shop from the links on this page (via Amazon or others), The Brainy Business may collect a share of sales or other compensation. Let's connect: Melina@TheBrainyBusiness.com The Brainy Business® on Facebook The Brainy Business on Twitter The Brainy Business on Instagram The Brainy Business on LinkedIn Melina on LinkedIn The Brainy Business on Youtube Connect with Priscilla: Priscilla's Website    PRISCILLA ON LINKEDIN PRISCILLA ON TWITTER Learn and Support The Brainy Business: Check out and get your copies of Melina's Books.  Get the Books Mentioned on (or related to) this Episode: Collaboration is the New Competition, by Priscilla McKinney What Your Customer Wants and Can't Tell You, by Melina Palmer You're Invited, by Jon Levy Think Faster, Talk Smarter, by Matt Abrahams Influence, by Robert Cialdini Top Recommended Next Episode: You're Invited, with Jon Levy (ep 348) Already Heard That One? Try These:  Anthropology, Behavioral Economics, and Marketing, with Priscilla McKinney (ep 196) The Power of Us, with Dominic Packer (ep 304) For The Culture, with Marcus Collins (ep 305) Vulnerability Loops (ep 229) Anchoring (ep 11) Reciprocity (ep 238) Influence, with Robert Cialdini (ep 312) Think Faster, Talk Smarter, with Matt Abrahams (ep 327) Marketing to Mindstates, with Will Leach (ep 88) Survivorship Bias (ep 110) Focusing Illusion (ep 330) Both/And Thinking, with Wendy Smith (ep 261) Framing (ep 296) Scarcity (ep 270) The Fun Habit with Mike Rucker (ep 251) The Human Experience, with John Sills (ep 277) The Science of Connection, with Nick Epley (ep 265) Other Important Links:  Brainy Bites - Melina's LinkedIn Newsletter LITTLE BIRD MARKETING WEBSITE Women In Research website LittleBirdMarketing.com/Resources

In this episode, my guest is Marc Andreessen, the legendary software innovator who co-created the internet browser Mosaic, co-founded Netscape, and is now at Andreessen Horowitz — a venture capital firm that finds and brings to life technologies that transform humanity. We discuss what it takes to be a true innovator, including the personality traits required, the role of environment and the support systems needed to bring revolutionary ideas to fruition. We discuss risk-taking as a necessary but potentially hazardous trait, as well as the role of intrinsic motivation and one's ability to navigate uncertainty. We also discuss artificial intelligence (AI) and Marc's stance that soon everyone will use AI as their personalized coach and guide for making decisions about their health, relationships, finances and more — all of which he believes will greatly enhance our quality of life. We also delve into nuclear power, gene editing, public trust, universities, politics, and AI regulation. This episode is for those interested in the innovative mind, psychology, human behavior, technology, culture and politics. For the full show notes, including articles, books, and other resources, visit hubermanlab.com. Thank you to our sponsors AG1: https://drinkag1.com/huberman LMNT: https://drinklmnt.com/huberman Eight Sleep: https://eightsleep.com/huberman InsideTracker: https://insidetracker.com/huberman Momentous: https://livemomentous.com/huberman Timestamps (00:00:00) Marc Andreessen (00:03:02) Sponsors: LMNT & Eight Sleep (00:06:05) Personality Traits of an Innovator (00:12:49) Disagreeableness, Social Resistance; Loneliness & Group Think  (00:18:48) Testing for Innovators, Silicon Valley (00:23:18) Unpredictability, Pre-Planning, Pivot (00:28:53) Intrinsic vs Extrinsic Motivation, Social Comparison (00:32:52) Sponsor: AG1 (00:33:49) Innovators & Personal Relationships (00:39:24) Risk Taking, Innovators, “Martyrs to Civilizational Progress” (00:46:16) Cancel Culture, Public vs. Elite (00:53:08) Elites & Institutions, Trust (00:57:38) Sponsor: InsideTracker (00:58:44) Social Media, Shifts in Public vs. Elite  (01:05:45) Reform & Institutions, Universities vs. Business (00:14:14) Traditional Systems, Lysenkoism, Gen X (01:20:56) Alternative University; Great Awakenings; Survivorship Bias  (01:27:25) History of Computers, Neural Network, Artificial Intelligence (AI) (01:35:50) Apple vs. Google, Input Data Set, ChatGPT (01:42:08) Deep Fakes, Registries, Public-Key Cryptography; Quantum Internet (01:46:46) AI Positive Benefits, Medicine, Man & Machine Partnership (01:52:18) AI as Best-Self Coach; AI Modalities (01:59:19) Gene Editing, Precautionary Principle, Nuclear Power (02:05:38) Project Independence, Nuclear Power, Environmentalism (02:12:40) Concerns about AI (02:18:00) Future of AI, Government Policy, Europe, US & China (02:23:47) China Businesses, Politics; Gene Editing  (02:28:38) Marketing, Moral Panic & New Technology; Politics, Podcasts & AI (02:39:03) Innovator Development, Courage, Support  (02:46:36) Small Groups vs. Large Organization, Agility; “Wild Ducks” (02:54:50) Zero-Cost Support, YouTube Feedback, Spotify & Apple Reviews, Sponsors, Momentous, Neural Network Newsletter, Social Media  Title Card Photo Credit: Mike Blabac Disclaimer

Author and consultant Luca Dellanna talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about the importance of avoiding ruin when facing risk. Along the way Dellanna makes understandable the arcane concept of ergodicity and shows the importance of avoiding ruin in every day life.