Star Spangled Gamblers

In 2016, Blitz (@blizzythegoat24) bet on Donald Trump to win the general election. In 2020, Blitz not only bet on Biden to win the election, he guessed the outcome of every state correctly. In 2024, he managed to do the same. He bet on Trump to win the election and guessed every state correctly. In this episode, Blitz explains for the first time how he did it. Timestamps 0:40: Blitz's achievement 3:25: Intro ends 5:25: Interview begins 6:00: Blitz's background 7:16: Blitz's bad start on PredictIt 7:59: Tweet markets 11:00: John Phillips's defense of tweet markets 13:43: Andrew Yang death threats 18:01: Trump VP pick in 2016 19:57: Blitz's methodology in 2024 26:26: Blue wall 29:52: Florida early vote 33:34: Nevada early turnout 37:50: Georgia 38:08: 2020 41:18: Women/abortion 42:01: Black voters 44:26: Polls 52:21: Concerns about democracy 1:01:30: Political bias Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter/x @pjchougule Trade on tweet markets and many more at Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market. Forecasting Meetup Network. Help us grow the forecasting community to positively influence the future by supporting us with an upvote, comment, or pledge on Manifund: https://manifund.org/projects/forecasting-meetup-network---washington-dc-pilot-4-meetups Get notified whenever a new meetup is scheduled and learn more about the Forecasting Meetup Network here: https://bit.ly/forecastingmeetupnetwork Join our Discord to connect with others in the community between monthly meetups: https://discord.com/invite/hFn3yukSwv

Harry Crane (@harrydcrane) explains how his model forecasted every state correctly in the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Timestamps 0:00: Intro 1:37: Intro ends 3:38: Interview with Crane begins 3:39: When Crane began developing model 3:59: Crane's goals 4:43: Assumptions behind the model 5:12: Polls 6:35: Voter registration 6:56: Crane's Sept 1 forecast 9:21: Approval ratings 9:32: Right track/wrong track 10:58: Polling data 11:53: Crosstabs  13:31: Early voting 18:28: Prediction markets 30:17: Political bias 35:49: Focus groups 38:39: Responding to being wrong 39:06: Allan Lichtman 40:19: Nate Silver 40:51: Crane's model's vulnerabilities 42:59: Silver and Lichtman 49:44: Academic models 49:58: Assessing Crane's model 51:04: Follow Crane Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter/X @ssgamblers  Trade on Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market. Forecasting Meetup Network. Help us grow the forecasting community to positively influence the future by supporting us with an upvote, comment, or pledge on Manifund: https://manifund.org/projects/forecasting-meetup-network---washington-dc-pilot-4-meetups Get notified whenever a new meetup is scheduled and learn more about the Forecasting Meetup Network here: https://bit.ly/forecastingmeetupnetwork Join our Discord to connect with others in the community between monthly meetups: https://discord.com/invite/hFn3yukSwv

Rule3O3 returns to discuss how Trump will resolve the debate on the right over H-1B visas. Timestamps  0:00: Intro begins 0:59: Modi-Trump meeting 2:00: Intro ends 4:00: Episode begins 5:13: Why the H1-B debate erupted 5:43: Sriram Krishnan 9:39: Laura Loomer 14:05: Right-wing debate 16:28: Indians Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on X @ssgamblers. Bet on the H1-B debate at Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market.  Will Trump eliminate H-1B visa in first 100 days? https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-eliminate-h-1b-visa-in-first-100-days?tid=1739471241781 Will Trump increase cap on H-1B visas in first 100 days? https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-increase-cap-on-h-1b-visas-in-first-100-days?tid=1739471369669 Forecasting Meetup Network. Help us grow the forecasting community to positively influence the future by supporting us with an upvote, comment, or pledge on Manifund: https://manifund.org/projects/forecasting-meetup-network---washington-dc-pilot-4-meetups Get notified whenever a new meetup is scheduled and learn more about the Forecasting Meetup Network here: https://bit.ly/forecastingmeetupnetwork Join our Discord to connect with others in the community between monthly meetups: https://discord.com/invite/hFn3yukSwv

Part 1: Dr. Cruse (@predoctit) makes the bear case on Kash Patel's confirmation odds Part 2: Rule3O3 (@Rule3O3) analyzes Vivek Ramaswamy's H1B gaffe Timestamps 0:00: Pratik Chougule (@pjchougule) intro 0:46: Pratik's updated odds on Patel's confirmation 2:03: Hegseth's confirmation 3:01: Pratik introduces Ramaswamy segment 5:41: Intro ends 7:42: Patel segment begins 12:19: Patel scandals 15:52: Dr. Cruse's prediction 16:28: Trump's support of Patel 19:42: Alternatives to Patel 22:29: Why Patel different from Hegseth 23:14: Patel segment ends 23:28: Ramaswamy segment begins 24:50: Whiplash 29:20: Saved By the Bell 30:50: Ramaswamy's critics 39:57: Perceptions of Indian-Americans 43:25: Damage to Ramaswamy Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter/X: @ssgamblers Bet on Kash Patel's confirmation at Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market. Who will be Trump's FBI Director https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-next-director-oft-the-fbi?tid=1738200171900 How many Senators vote to confirm Kash Patel as Director of the FBI https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-senators-vote-to-confirm-kash-patel-as-director-of-the-fbi?tid=1738200239466 Which Senators will vote to confirm Kash Patel https://polymarket.com/event/which-senators-will-vote-to-confirm-kash-patel?tid=1738200284701 Which Trump picks will be confirmed? https://polymarket.com/event/which-trump-picks-will-be-confirmed/kash-patel-confirmed-as-director-of-the-fbi?tid=1738200304190 Forecasting Meetup Network. Help us grow the forecasting community to positively influence the future by supporting us with an upvote, comment, or pledge on Manifund: https://manifund.org/projects/forecasting-meetup-network---washington-dc-pilot-4-meetups Get notified whenever a new meetup is scheduled and learn more about the Forecasting Meetup Network here: https://bit.ly/forecastingmeetupnetwork Join our Discord to connect with others in the community between monthly meetups: https://discord.com/invite/hFn3yukSwv

Rutgers statistician Harry Crane critiques Nate Silver's model. Timestamps 1:49: Intro ends 3:55: Interview begins 4:08: Crane's bio 8:50: Nate Silver 10:42: Critique of Silver's model 12:42: Silver's criticism of prediction markets 23:57: Silver as tout 25:04: Silver's model 27:48: Simulations in Silver's model 30:51: 50-50 election forecasts Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter/X @ssgamblers Bet on elections at Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market. Attend our forecasting and prediction markets meetup in Washington DC on 23 January 2025. RSVP here: https://partiful.com/e/tgYHaoevQ78X7hpnDUHA

Dr. Cruse (@predoctit) argues that Pete Hegseth, Trump's nominee for Secretary of Defense, is much less likely to get confirmed than the current markets prices indicate. Dr. Cruse and Pratik Chougule also discuss the universe of Republican senators who are willing to vote against Trump nominees. Timestamps 0:00: Pratik introduces episode 0:11: Thune whip count on Hegseth 8:05: Intro ends 10:06: Interview with Cruse begins 10:42: Trump nominees' confirmation prospects 11:24: Democratic Senators 12:11: Rubio 15:44: Most controversial nominees 16:27: Hegseth scandals 31:14: Factors in likelihood of confirmation 33:46: Republican Senators 46:41: Influence of Hegseth markets 46:56: Sexual harrassment allegations Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter @ssgamblers  Trade on Hegseth's nomination at Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market. https://polymarket.com/event/of-senate-votes-to-confirm-hegseth-as-secretary-of-defense?tid=1736804670342 https://polymarket.com/event/which-trump-picks-will-be-confirmed/will-pete-hegseth-be-confirmed-as-secretary-of-defense?tid=1736804692254 https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-trumps-defense-secretary/will-pete-hegseth-be-trumps-defense-secretary?tid=1736804733018 Join us for our first DC Forecasting & Prediction Markets meetup of the year! This will be a very casual meetup to meet and socialize with others interested in forecasting, prediction markets, political gambling, sports betting, or anything else relating to predicting the future. Location is TBD but you'll be notified when we've finalized a venue. Last-minute/onsite walk-in RSVPs here on this Partiful event page are welcomed! Who are we? We are prediction market traders on Manifold (and other prediction markets like PredictIt, Kalshi, and Polymarket), forecasters (e.g. on Metaculus and Good Judgment Open), sports bettors (e.g. on FanDuel, DraftKings, and other sportsbooks), consumers of forecasting (or related) content (e.g. Star Spangled Gamblers, Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin, Scott Alexander's Astral Codex Ten), effective altruists, rationalists, and data scientists. Forecast on Manifold how many people will attend this month: https://manifold.markets/dglid/how-many-people-will-attend-a-forec-OzPZILyc5C?play=true Forecast on Manifold how many people will attend meetups this year: https://manifold.markets/dglid/how-many-attendees-will-there-be-at?play=true This meetup is hosted by the Forecasting Meetup Network. Help us grow the forecasting community to positively influence the future by supporting us with an upvote, comment, or pledge on Manifund: https://manifund.org/projects/forecasting-meetup-network---washington-dc-pilot-4-meetups Get notified whenever a new meetup is scheduled and learn more about the Forecasting Meetup Network here: https://bit.ly/forecastingmeetupnetwork Join our Discord to connect with others in the community between monthly meetups: https://discord.com/invite/hFn3yukSwv

Dr. Cruse (@predoctit) returns to discuss the strategy behind Trump's nominations and administration appointments. Timestamps 0:08: Pratik introduces segment on Trump appointments 1:18: Call to support SSG 2:16: Golden Modelos 2:58: Intro ends 4:59: Trump segment begins 7:12: Trump's strategy 7:35: 4-D Chess? 25:45: Sarah Palin 33:02: Golden Modelos Worst Trade 39:03: Golden Modelos Best Fight Bet on Trump administration appointments at Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market. Forecasting Meetup Network. Help us grow the forecasting community to positively influence the future by supporting us with an upvote, comment, or pledge on Manifund: https://manifund.org/projects/forecasting-meetup-network---washington-dc-pilot-4-meetups Get notified whenever a new meetup is scheduled and learn more about the Forecasting Meetup Network here: https://bit.ly/forecastingmeetupnetwork Join our Discord to connect with others in the community between monthly meetups: https://discord.com/invite/hFn3yukSwv

Gaeten Dugas (@GaetenD) and Fred Norris (@PIsFredNorris) celebrate (belatedly) the winners of the 2023 Golden Modelos for the best and worst of political gambling. Timestamps 2:04: Appreciating the political betting community 2:42: Golden Modelos 2024 3:20: Intro ends 5:19: Episode begins 5:28: What are the Golden Modelos? 8:36: Rookie of the Year 10:42: Trader of the Year 16:44: Gaeten's best bets in 2023 27:55: Best Market 38:55: Best News Source 41:54: Future of political gambling community   Follow SSG on Twitter @ssgamblers   Trade on Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market.   Join the Forecasting Meetup Network. Help us grow the forecasting community to positively influence the future by supporting us with an upvote, comment, or pledge on Manifund: https://manifund.org/projects/forecasting-meetup-network---washington-dc-pilot-4-meetups Get notified whenever a new meetup is scheduled and learn more about the Forecasting Meetup Network here: https://bit.ly/forecastingmeetupnetwork

Part 1: Fred Norris (@PIsFredNorris) declares victory in his side bet with Zoltar (@zoltarssg) on how ratings at Fox News would fare following Tucker Carlson's departure. Part 2: Coalition for Political Forecasting Research Director Mick Bransfield (@mickbransfield) and Pratik Chougule (@pjchougule) discuss the merits of CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam's opposition to election event contracts. Timestamps 0:00: Pratik introduces Tucker Carlson segment 2:02: Behnam's announcement on event contracts rulemaking 11:36: Tucker Carlson segment begins 11:48: Fred Norris recaps bet with Zoltar 19:30: Fox News ratings after Tucker Carlson 25:21: Tucker Carlson's decline 29:17: Tucker Carlson segment ends 29:32: Behnam segment begins 34:53: What legal prediction markets would look like 38:05: Behnam vs. Kalshi 38:26: Proprietary technology 41:31: Kalshi's view 41:48: Why Kalshi's view is at odds with Behnam 42:05: State law 42:22: Behnam's view on prediction markets 43:55: CFTC jurisdiction 46:09: Chougule's view on political betting 46:37: Chougule's critique of Kalshi 47:19: Chougule's view on Behnam's perspective 47:39: Benefits of status quo 49:23: Repealing state law "Anderson Cooper out as CNN anchor in 2024?" Trade on Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market. https://polymarket.com/event/anderson-cooper-out-as-cnn-anchor-in-2024/anderson-cooper-out-as-cnn-anchor-in-2024?tid=1734481400982 Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter @ssgamblers Coalition for Political Forecasting https://coalitionforpoliticalforecasting.org/

Pratik Chougule and Mick Bransfield discuss why the courts are allowing Kalshi to offer election markets for now, and provide an update on the litigation between Kalshi and the CFTC. Timestamps  0:00: Introduction begins 0:20: 2024 elections and prediction markets 0:31: Victory for Polymarket 1:53: Kalshi legal case 7:09: Interview with Bransfield begins 7:28: Bransfield joins Coalition for Political Forecasting 8:06: District court case 10:37: Gaming 15:45: Jia Cobb's ruling 18:17: DC Circuit appeal 18:30: DC Circuit court judges 30:43: Perception of harm from election contracts 33:07: Foreign prediction markets 35:27: Behnam comments on UK betting scandal 36:33: Kid Rock manipulation anecdote 38:33: Manipulation in prediction markets Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter @ssgamblers Trade on Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market. Sign up for the Forecasting Meetup Network: https://forecastingmeetupnetwork.kit.com/eb6374e5e8

Epoch Times reporter John Haughey tells us what he's hearing from  Timestamps 0:00: Pratik introduces John Haughey 3:00: SSG pre-election coverage 4:01: Manifold election party 6:52: Interview begins 7:39: Epoch Times 19:34: Haughey's interest in political betting 24:43: Data 31:16: Republican uniformity of message 38:28: Impressions from the ground 45:23: October surprises? 48:06: Montana Senate race Bet on the 2024 elections at Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market.

David Glidden (@dglid), co-founder of the Forecasting Meetup Network, provides a step-by-step how-to guide to organizing a forecasting meetup. Timestamps 1:08: Review of September forecasting meetup 2:08: Polymarket's commitment to community-building 3:03: October forecasting meetup 7:03: Interview with Glidden begins 8:29: Working with a partner 9:42: Sensitivity to rejection 12:48: Nate Silver's community of elites 14:25: Big visions 15:25: Shayne Coplan's vision 18:28: Scratch your own itch 19:52: Prediction market newsletters 21:39: Polymarket's The Oracle 22:32: How to begin 23:03: Finding a venue 26:17: Focus on n of 1 26:38: Fundraising 27:28: Manifund 32:39: Value for sponsors 37:17: Getting RSVPs 38:56: How to get involved 41:54: Expanding beyond Washington 43:26: Grassroots activism 44:46: Opponents of election betting 47:53: Why companies don't invest in grassroots activism Join us for a pre-election forecasting & prediction markets meetup/party this Tuesday! Details and RSVP for free here: https://partiful.com/e/ITHDAcznT1DppUXD2p9x Trade on Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market. Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter @ssgamblers

David Glidden (@dglid) draws lessons from the sports betting world for building the forecasting community. Timestamps 0:00: Intro begins 0:09: Saul Munn 1:26: David Glidden 1:52: Washington DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets Meetup 6:54: Interview with Glidden begins 13:32: Importance of building forecasting community 14:39: Effective altruism 22:02: DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets Meetup 24:49: Sports betting 40:53: Repeatable lines in prediction markets Show Notes September 26 DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets Meetup RSVP: https://partiful.com/e/zpObY6EmiQEkgpcJB6Aw DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets Meetup Manifund: https://manifund.org/projects/forecasting-meetup-network---washington-dc-pilot-4-meetups For more information on the meetup, DM David Glidden @dglid. Trade on Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market. Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter @ssgamblers.

Pratik Chougule summarizes the latest developments in the legal battle between Kalshi and the CFTC on election betting. Pratik Chougule and Mick Bransfield do a deep dive into the CFTC's arguments in front of DC federal district court Judge Jia Cobb.  Timestamps 0:00: Pratik introduces segment with Bransfield 1:43: Update on latest in Kalshi-CFTC legal battle 9:34: Bransfield segment begins 11:18: CFTC counsel's poor presentation 20:33: Definition of a contest 21:47: Market manipulation 27:02: Cobb's concerns 27:29: CFTC's arguments about gaming 29:34: Importance of public comments to CFTC 25:38: DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets Meetup Show Notes September 26 DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets Meetup RSVP: https://partiful.com/e/zpObY6EmiQEkgpcJB6Aw DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets Meetup Manifund: https://manifund.org/projects/forecasting-meetup-network---washington-dc-pilot-4-meetups For more information on the meetup, DM David Glidden @dglid. Trade on Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market. Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter @ssgamblers.

Political gambling legend 50Pence challenges Alex Chan for the SSG Title Belt on the question of who will win the Trump-Harris debate. Chan and 50Pence also discuss which mention markets will hit on Polymarket and how many more Trump-Harris debates there will be before the election. Timestamps 3:49: Interview begins 4:38: How Chan won the Title Belt 6:54: 50Pence introduction 8:26: Title Belt bet 15:50: Favorable moderators for Trump 18:32: Counterparty risk 21:39: Debate rules 30:59: Harris's performance 57:13: Trump's weaknesses 1:02:11: Polymarket debate mention markets 1:08:03: Crypto/Bitcoin mentions 1:15:32: How many Trump-Harris debates? 1:18:47: Lottos on 3+ debates? Show Notes Bet on debate markets at Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market. Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter @ssgamblers

Part I: Pratik Chougule and Mick Bransfield analyze Kalshi's case against the CFTC in federal court Part II: Jared Whitley discusses political trends among Mormons and other high-achieving minority groups Timestamps 0:00: Pratik introduces Kalshi segment 0:51: Pratik introduces Whitley segment 2:12: Mormon vote in Arizona and Nevada 3:30: Cuban-American vote in Florida 6:23: Segment on Kalshi begins 6:29: Jones Day 9:13: Joshua Sterling 10:50: Yaakov Roth 11:14: Amanda Rice 11:39: Kalshi's gaming argument 14:05: Kalshi's public interest argument 14:45: Lack of expertise on prediction markets 15:35: Factual errors 16:40: Kalshi references Chougule's comment letter 19:51: Attendees at the Hearing 21:08: Importance of legal arguments 22:10: Judge's reaction to Kalshi 23:11: Segment with Whitley begins 23:34: The Triple Package 24:09: Mormon influence in politics 25:11: Protestant alliances 25:48: Romney-Santorum battle in 2012 26:19: High-achieving minority groups 27:02: Cuban-Americans 29:31: Mormons moving left 35:27: Utah housing affordability 36:29: Federal lands in Utah 37:55: Blue state refugees in Utah Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter @ssgamblers Coalition for Political Forecasting: https://coalitionforpoliticalforecasting.org/ Markets Referenced Trade on Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market. Arizona Presidential Election Winner: https://polymarket.com/event/arizona-presidential-election-winner?tid=1725129552556 Arizona Senate Election Winner: https://polymarket.com/event/arizona-us-senate-election-winner?tid=1725129686645 AZ-06 election: Engel (D) vs. Ciscomani (R): https://polymarket.com/event/az-06-election-engel-d-vs-ciscomani-r/az-06-election-engel-d-vs-ciscomani-r?tid=1725129720295 AZ-01 election: Shah (D) vs. Schweikert (R): https://polymarket.com/event/az-01-election-shah-d-vs-schweikert-r/az-01-election-shah-d-vs-schweikert-r?tid=1725129749517 Nevada Presidential Election Winner: https://polymarket.com/event/nevada-presidential-election-winner?tid=1725129799530 Nevada Senate Election Winner: https://polymarket.com/event/nevada-us-senate-election-winner?tid=1725129834707 Utah Presidential Election Winner: https://polymarket.com/event/utah-presidential-election-winner?tid=1725129848259 Utah Senate Election Winner: https://polymarket.com/event/utah-us-senate-election-winner?tid=1725129890027 Utah Governor Election Winner: https://polymarket.com/event/utah-governor-election-winner?tid=1725129905105 Florida Presidential Election Winner: https://polymarket.com/event/florida-presidential-election-winner?tid=1725129967776 Florida Senate Election Winner: https://polymarket.com/event/florida-us-senate-election-winner?tid=1725129994668 Tipping Point State: https://polymarket.com/event/us-election-tipping-point-state?tid=1725130009469

Keendawg (@keendawg) and Gaeten Dugas (@gaetend) return to the show to review the Republican National Convention and discuss what it tells us about the Trump-Harris matchup.  Timestamps 3:58: Interview begins 5:19: Shayne Coplan at the RNC 18:05: Why the RNC matters 19:48: Odds on Republicans winning the presidency 27:47: Media treatment of Harris 31:54: How to bet on the Trump-Kamala race 37:22: Polymarket's achievements in the 2024 election SUPPORT US: Patreon: www.patreon.com/starspangledgamblers FOLLOW US ON SOCIAL: Twitter: www.twitter.com/ssgamblers VISIT OUR WEBPAGE: www.starspangledgamblers.com Bet on the 2024 presidential election at Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market, at polymarket.com.

Part I: Pratik Chougule offers his thoughts on what to say in comments to the CFTC on its event contracts proposal. Part II: Mick Bransfield discusses the federal judge who will decide the lawsuit between Kalshi and the CFTC Timestamps 1:40: How to submit a comment to the CFTC 2:57: How to watch the CFTC Open Meeting on YouTube 3:43: What to write to the CFTC 5:38: The CFTC's goal with its event contracts proposal 7:39: What kind of comments will move the needle 12:36: Questions about enforcement in the proposal 13:44: Political betting moving offshore 15:17: Delaying the rule 17:23: Need for a balancing test 22:36: Interview with Bransfield begins 28:31: Jia Cobb 34:32: Ignorance about prediction markets 38:36: Gambling references on Kalshi's website CFTC Proposal on Event Contracts: https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8907-24 SUPPORT US: Patreon: www.patreon.com/starspangledgamblers FOLLOW US ON SOCIAL: Twitter: www.twitter.com/ssgamblers VISIT OUR WEBPAGE: www.starspangledgamblers.com Trade on Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market, at polymarket.com

Part I: Jared Whitley explains why it will be difficult politically and legally to reschedule marijuana in 2024 Part II: Pratik Chougule and Mick Bransfield discuss what a Republican president would mean for the regulation of election event contracts Timestamps 0:00: Pratik introduces marijuana rescheduling segment 2:11: Pratik introduces segment on event contract regulation 3:24: CFTC rulemaking on event contracts 6:46: Interview with Whitley begins 8:14: Referencing Polymarket odds in political analysis 11:12: What does rescheduling marijuana mean? 13:30: Why Biden rescheduled marijuana 17:46: Romney's objections 18:17: U.S. treaty obligations 30:05: Public attitudes 35:27: Bransfield interview begins Show Notes — Whitley's Daily Caller column: https://dailycaller.com/2024/04/10/whitley-democrats-trick-young-americans-selling-birthright-mess-pot-marijuana-election/ — Romney letter to DEA https://www.romney.senate.gov/romney-leads-letter-to-dea-highlighting-concerns-with-rescheduling-marijuana-and-compliance-with-u-s-treaty-obligations/#:~:text=%E2%80%9CAny%20effort%20to%20reschedule%20marijuana,account%20for%20our%20treaty%20obligations.%E2%80%9D Trade on whether marijuana will be rescheduled in 2024 at Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market. https://polymarket.com/event/will-weed-be-rescheduled-in-2024/will-weed-be-rescheduled-in-2024?tid=1722322243642

Part I: William Kedjanyi previews the July 4 UK elections. He discusses Nigel Farage's rise, what he's hearing from ordinary voters, and whether Labour will win more than 450 seats. Part II: Anthony Pickles discusses why there is relatively little hedging in the UK betting markets Timestamps  0:30: Pratik introduces Kedjanyi 1:53: Pratik introduces segment with Pickles 5:19: Segment with Kedjanyi begins 6:27: Reform Party's launch 11:28: Farage's odds of election 15:02: Farage's impact in the next government 19:38: First past the post 25:03: The Labour Party's ideology 25:46: How Farage could impact the Tories 26:42: Reform will not be the opposition 28:08: How many seats for Labour 29:39: What Kedjanyi learned from traveling around the country 33:19: Potential surprises 36:27: Which way will polling miss go? 39:07: Segment with Pickles begins Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter: @ssgamblers Trade on the UK elections at Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market.

Part I: Pratik Chougule (@pjchougule), Ben Freeman (benwfreeman1), and Alex Chan (@ianlazaran) discuss why Trump is unlikely to select J.D. Vance as VP. Part II: Pratik and Mick Bransfield (@mickbransfield) discuss what comments will favorably influence the CFTC in the ongoing rulemaking on event contracts Part III: Anthony Pickles (@polgambling) provides advice on how to follow the UK elections and maintain an edge in these markets Part IV: Saul Munn (@saulmunn) explains the importance of capital in building the forecasting community Timestamps 0:11: Pratik introduces segment on J.D. Vance 0:46: Pratik introduces segment with Mick Bransfield 1:30: Pratik introduces segment with Anthony Pickles 2:13: Pratik introduces segment with Saul Munn 5:02: Vance segment begins 5:14: Chan's views on Vance 6:33: Freeman's analysis on Vance 8:34: Pratik's analysis on Vance 11:07: Segment with Bransfield begins 18:11: Libertarians in CFTC comment period 28:09: Segment with Pickles begins 33:05: Segment with Munn begins 35:24: Social capital 41:33: Weak ties 44:09: Creating value Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter @ssgamblers Bet on Trump's VP selection at Polymarket https://polymarket.com/event/republican-vp-nominee/will-tim-scott-win-the-2024-republican-vp-nomination?tid=1719813123739 Optic Forecasting: https://www.opticforecasting.com/

Part I: Professor Anthony Pickles (@polgambling), an expert on political gambling, does a deep dive into Keir Starmer and precisely how many seats Labour and the Conservatives are likely to win in UK's upcoming elections. Part II: Vegas bookmaker Alex Chan (@ianlazaran) explains how professional bettors are driving irrational odds in the VP markets. Part III: Pratik Chougule (@pjchougule) discusses why opponents of election betting have the upper hand in Washington. Timestamps 0:09: Pratik introduces segment on UK elections 2:01: Pratik introduces segment with Alex Chan on VP odds 3:17: Pratik introduces segment on event contract regulation 5:55: Segment on UK elections begins 6:12: Anthony's background 8:17: Keir Starmer's background 10:16: Starmer's odds of becoming Prime Minister 11:01: How many seats Conservatives and Labour will win 22:04: Why Sunak and the Conservatives are unlikely to make a comeback 28:37: Why Sunak called an early election 30:54: Labour seat totals 34:03: Right-wing bias in the markets? 36:59: Discussion of class politics 39:27: Segment with Chan begins 39:46: VP odds on Tulsi Gabbard and Vivek Ramaswamy 40:48: "Juice" in sportsbooks 41:46: Regulation segment begins 42:56: Incentives in the current CFTC rulemaking 45:00: Need for a counter-lobby on event contracts Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter: @ssgamblers Trade on Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market, at Polymarket.com

3-Part Episode Part I: Pratik Chougule (@pjchougule), SSG TItle Belt Champ Ben Freeman (@benwfreeman1), and Title Belt Challenger Alex Chan (@ianlazaran) debate whether or not Trump cares about qualifications in his VP decision, or whether it will come down to politics. Part II: Doug Campbell (@tradeandmoney) analyzes how he won the 2023 Astral Codex Ten forecasting competition. Part III: Saul Munn explains how to organize the forecasting community 0:11: Pratik introduces VP segment 0:26: Pratik introduces Campbell segment 1:05: Pratik introduces Munn segment 4:09: VP segment begins 8:43: 2028 considerations 18:13: Campbell segment begins 22:55: Expertise and prediction 28:10: Interview with Munn begins 28:45: The importance of in-person events 29:00: Manifest's origins 30:46: The political gambling community 32:11: Transitioning from an online community 34:04: How to organize the forecasting community 36:05: University clubs 37:06: Reluctance to organize events 38:15: EA Global 40:59: Low bar to community-building Bet on who Trump will select as his running mate at Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market, at polymarket.com. SUPPORT US: Patreon: www.patreon.com/starspangledgamblers FOLLOW US ON SOCIAL: Twitter: www.twitter.com/ssgamblers 

Pratik Chougule previews Manifest 2024. Ben Freeman (@benwfreeman1) and Alex Chan (@ianlazaran) negotiate a side bet on whether Trump will select Tim Scott, Doug Burgum, or Marco Rubio as his running mate. They discuss how Trump will make the decision and when he'll announce it.  Timestamps 0:09: Pratik introduces segment on Trump VP selection 1:44: Manifest 2024 7:18: Episode on VP nomination begins 7:43: What are SSG Title Belt Championships? 9:37: How Ben Freeman won the SSG Title Belt 11:56: Ben's proposed side bet on Trump's VP selection 13:36: Alex Chan's background 15:38: OpenBet/DonBest 19:26: How Alex got into political gambling 20:49: Political nerds vs. professional gamblers 22:36: Ben and Alex negotiate theie side bet 27:09: How Trump will select his VP 30:10: Loyalty considerations 32:21: Trump's strength in GOP 34:48: Will Trump penalize those who ran against him? 35:32: When will Trump announce the pick? 36:38: How deep is Trump's VP bench? 40:09: Has Trump already decided? Follow SSG on Twitter: @ssgamblers Trade on Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market, at polymarket.com Attend Manifest, a festival celebrating predictions, markets, and mechanisms, hosted by Manifold Markets. June 7-9 at Lighthaven Campus, Berkeley, CA. Tickets are available at https://www.manifest.is/#tickets. Use the discount code SSG10 to get 10% of the ticket price.

The CFTC has proposed a new rule that would restrict betting on election markets. Pratik Chougule and Mick Bransfield do a deep dive into the CFTC's deliberations. Timestamps 0:00: Introduction 6:11: Interview with Bransfield begins 8:50: CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam is spending political capital on the issue 10:14: What is rulemaking? 11:24: Behnam's statement 11:48: Concerns about CFTC staff time on election contracts 14:25: Conflict of interest accusations against Kristin Johnson 17:34: Senator Tommy Tuberville's involvement 20:02: Goldsmith-Romero's views 25:13: Mersinger's dissent 27:38: Pham's dissent 31:10: Discord at the CFTC 32:01: Questions about CFTC enforcement 35:41: CFTC's power and resources 37:58: Behnam's political ambition 41:06: Pratik's critique of Mersinger's dissent 45:12: Pratik's impressions from attending CFTC meeting in person Trade on Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market, at polymarket.com Attend Manifest, a festival celebrating predictions, markets, and mechanisms, hosted by Manifold Markets. June 7-9 at Lighthaven Campus, Berkeley, CA. Tickets are available at https://www.manifest.is/#tickets. Use the discount code SSG10 to get 10% of the ticket price.

London-based political gambler Pip Moss joins SSG to discuss Rishi Sunak's political future. Timestamps 4:03: Interview with Pip begins 4:11: Pip's background 11:02: What went wrong for Sunak? 21:35: How election timing is determined in UK 26:00: When an election can constitutionally be held 27:22: Current market prices on timing of UK election 31:04: Impact of U.S. elections on UK election timing 34:55: Will Sunak be out before next elections? 39:36: Will Sunak quit? 40:21: Could Sunak be pushed out by his party? Trade on Sunak and the next UK elections at Polymarket.com: https://polymarket.com/event/rishi-sunak-out-before-next-uk-election?tid=1716178359054 https://polymarket.com/event/when-will-uk-election-be-held/uk-election-in-august-or-earlier?tid=1716178417342 Follow SSG on Twitter @ssgamblers

Every year, Star Spangled Gamblers hosts the Golden Modelos—an awards show for the best and worst of political gambling in the previous year. Abhi Kylasa (AENews) and Vanilla Vice return to the show to discuss which nominees should make the ballot. Timestamps 0:00: Pratik introduces the Golden Modelos and why they matter 5:56: Vice introduces the Golden Modelos 6:53: Pratik explains the Golden Modelos process 8:33: Best Market 9:27: Room temperature superconductor 10:15: Will 2023 be the hottest year market 11:23: Best Trade 11:27: Bonding the Bitcoin ETF market 12:33: Domer buying Ramaswamy at 500-1 12:49: Ian Bezek recommending buying Javier Milei 13:05: Gaeten Dugas buying Taylor Swift to be number one song 13:12: Domer debt limit profits 13:17: Worst Trade 14:19: Mr. Beast subscriber count 14:44: MagaVacuum side betting that DeSantis won't run for president 15:05: Polymarket user losing $100k on Trump reinstatement 15:21: Abe Kurland side bets on Ramaswamy 17:21: Best Shitposter 19:06: Domer's shitposting 19:56: RelayThief's shitposting 20:44: Rookie of the Year 21:12: Naman Mehndiratta 22:39: Manifold Markets 23:20: Betting platforms 23:48: TheWinner 25:29: Trader of the Year 25:46: ANoland 26:07: Gaeten Dugas 27:59: Jonathan Zubkoff (ZubbyBadger) 28:33: Doug Campbell 29:05: Worst Pump 31:04: Kalshi election contracts 31:15: Hamas control of Gaza 32:00: Trump third indictment  32:44: Semiconductor yes holders 33:40: RFK Democratic nominee 33:46: AI to win Time Person of the Year 34:22: Best News Source 34:41: Politico Punchbowl 35:00: PredictIt comments 35:28: The Information's coverage of OpenAI 35:50: RacetotheWH by Logan Phillips 37:29: CSP Discord 38:36: Service to Political Gambling 38:36: PredictIt 39:50: Biggest Rules Cuck 39:56: Government Shutdown 40:33: Lower case "trump" versus upper case "Trump" 41:23: "widespread flooding" in Los Angeles 42:19: submarine debris 43:04: Trump indictment on March 31 43:48: U.S. rescue of Hamas hostages 44:19: Biggest Rules Dispute 44:50: Did Israel have advanced knowledge of Hamas attack 45:59: Postscript 46:17: Abe Kurland's response to Worst Bet nomination 47:53: CSP vs. CatClan Discords Trade on Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market at polymarket.com  Follow SSG on Twitter @ssgamblers

Hemma Kilawan, a member of the SSG team, analyzes whether and when Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce will get engaged. Timestamps 0:40: Pratik explains why SSG is covering Taylor Swift markets and how they relate to political gambling 3:50: Pratik thanks a Patreon sponsor and why his contribution is important 8:15: Interview with Hemma begins 9:28: Hemma's impressions of political gambling 9:58: Can political gambling reach beyond its target demographics? 11:12: Taylor Swift as a political actor 16:18: Polymarket markets on Taylor Swift 16:59: Is the Swift-Kelce relationship real? 19:04: How to research Taylor Swift relationship gossip 20:56: Swift-Kelce relationship timeline 24:34: Swift's past relationships 27:57: The Eras Tour 31:23: Kelce's public statements 32:02: Do they want kids? 35:23: Trading strategies for the Swift engagement market 40:13: Will Taylor Swift be pregnant this year? 44:48: How political betting spurs interest in topics SUPPORT US Patreon: www.patreon.com/starspangledgamblers FOLLOW US ON SOCIAL Twitter: www.twitter.com/ssgamblers TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@starspangledgambl7 YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCjZUfG2_5fqJHfXGtjsayww VISIT OUR WEBPAGE: www.starspangledgamblers.com

Doug Campbell returns to SSG to provide an update on the war in Ukraine.  Doug is the founder and CEO of Insight Prediction, an expert on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and a whale trader himself. Doug argues that the war has become a stalemate and provides advice on how to trade on this reality. 0:42: Doug's background 0:52: Doug's SSG interview about his time in Russia https://youtu.be/BZ0BbIbMcYg?si=Hr-jrGmlmi3LX9O2 1:11: Doug's talk on war markets at Manifest https://youtu.be/YrhsSohbRO4?si=07mDDuDKZRE2i9Y4 1:32: Manifest conference 2024 4:33: Interview begins 5:17: High-level update on the war 13:23: Ukrainian intelligence before the war 14:37: U.S. intelligence estimates on Ukraine 18:12: Optimism on both sides of the word 19:21: Sanctions against Russia 22:58: Odds of Putin being assassinated 24:23: Russian involvement in Israel-Hamas conflict 25:14: Impact of a Trump victory 26:02: Western aid to Ukraine 28:01: Odds of Putin leaving office 29:48: Odds of Russian nuclear escalation 31:00: How to trade ceasefire markets Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter @ssgamblers

Saul Munn is one of the world's leading experts on building the forecasting community. He is the Co-Founder of Optic Forecasting and the Lead Organizer of the Manifest conference. In Part 1, Saul joins the show to discuss which communities comprise the emerging forecasting community. In Part 2, Brian Darling, former counsel to Senator Rand Paul, returns to assess the Tennessee Senator Marsha Blackburn's odds of becoming Trump's VP pick. In Part 3, Nathan Young returns to the show to advise on how to short AI hype in betting markets. 0:00: Pratik introduces the segment with Saul Munn 1:24: Saul's disclaimer on conflicts of interest 1:56: Manifest Conference 2024 3:26: Intro for Brian Darling segment on the GOP VP nominee market 4:16: How to trade on the GOP VP nomination 5:08: Intro to interview with Nathan Young 9:03: Interview with Saul begins 9:26: The importance of community in the political betting space 11:00: Optic forecasting clubs 12:44: How Saul became interested in the forecasting community 13:25: Manifest Conference 13:46: Diversity in the forecasting community 14:32: Who is in the broader forecasting community? 14:56: Destiny's role in the forecasting community 16:57: The types of people who are interested in forecasting 19:44: Differences between Washington politics and the forecasting community 20:40: Differences between the political betting community and the forecasting community 21:18: Communities interested in forecasting 21:47: Communities that could be interested in forecasting 24:34: Why some communities resist forecasting 28:20: Segment with Brian Darling begins 28:27: Kim Reynolds's VP odds 29:06: Marsha Blackburn's VP odds 30:05: Swing state VP contenders 31:26: Segment with Nathan Young begins 31:59: Taxing bad predictions 33:46: Shorting AI enthusiasm in political betting markets 34:47: Irrational pricing in Time Person of the Year markets  40:12: Hedge funds and AI

Part 1: Washington-based lobbyist and former Rand Paul counsel Brian Darling returns to the show to discuss Trump's VP selection. Part 2: Mick Bransfield, an expert on prediction market regulation, returns to discuss reports that PredictIt is pursuing a settlement with the CFTC. 0:57: Current market odds on Republican VP nominee 3:44: Pratik introduces Bransfield segment 4:37: Trump interview on his VP choice with Maria Bartiromo 8:28: Darling interview begins 10:00: Why Noem is the front-runner to be Trump's VP 11:49: Noem's history with Trump 15:15: Noem's alleged affair with Corey Lewandowski 16:26: Odds Trump will pick a woman running mate 17:26: The Republican Party's role in the VP selection 18:32: Trump's perspective on loyalty 21:45: Would Noem accept the VP nomination? 22:06: History of people rejecting offers to be VP 22:50: What price to pay for Noem yes shares 24:29: Why Haley is trading so high 31:42: Elise Stefanik's odds 33:57: Bransfield segment begins 39:03: Signs PredictIt will not pursue a constitutional challenge Follow SSG on Twitter @ssgamblers

Dr. Lucas (@Talophex) returns for a deep dive into Donald Trump's health and how it should inform a bet on whether he'll be elected president. Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter @ssgamblers 0:00: Pratik introduces the episode 1:17: Discoloration of Trump's hand and Trump's alleged body odor 4:17: Interview begins 5:46: Trump's coronary artery disease 6:32: Trump's physique 10:12: Trump's psychology 11:05: Note from Trump's doctor 13:38: Why hasn't Trump had a serious heart condition? 15:06: Trump's genetics 17:46: Is weight protective in old age? 21:00: Trump's cognitive decline 25:29: Trump's OCD 27:00: Trump's purpose in life 29:48: How Trump's legal issues could impact his health 35:00: How to trade on Trump's health 39:52: What to look for to assess Trump's health Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter @ssgamblers Donate to Star Spangled Gamblers via PayPal https://www.paypal.com/donate/?hosted_button_id=9Q6KS5JPLNRRY

While Trump appears to hold a commanding lead heading in the Iowa caucuses, second place remains uncertain. Ben Freeman challenges The Winner for the SSG title belt on the question of who will perform better in the Iowa caucuses: Ron DeSantis or Nikki Haley. Plus, Pratik Chougule explains the nomination process for the 2024 Golden Modelos. 0:00: Pratik introduces the Iowa caucuses segment 1:38: Pratik explains the nomination process for the 2024 Golden Modelos for Excellence in Political Gambling 4:15: SSG members' only private briefing on Taiwan elections 7:36: Segment on Iowa caucuses begins 8:15: What are SSG title belt challenges 9:20: Ben Freeman on why DeSantis is underpriced for second place in Iowa 12:20: The Winner on why DeSantis isn't likely to place second 13:38: Negotiating the belt challenge 14:10: Pratik's view on why DeSantis has the edge 15:30: Haley's feminism 17:07: Populism and wave politics 18:14: What is Haley's message? 28:30: Haley's lack of endorsements 37:30: Democratic presidential primary Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter @ssgamblers

Prediction market enthusiast and effective altruist Nathan Young (@nathanpmyoung) joins the show to discuss the relation of prediction markets and AI. He also discusses Polymarket's market on whether an AI win the $5 million AI Math Olympiad Prize before August and explains why it's unlikely to happen. Timestamps 0:00: Intro begins 4:00: Interview with Nathan begins. Nathan explains his full-time work in the forecasting industry 6:18: AI and effective altruism  13:25: What exactly is AI and what are its capabilities? 30:49: Polymarket's AI Math Olympiad Prize market Follow us on Twitter @ssgamblers

Four Part Episode Part 1: Dr. Lucas (@talophex) on Biden's health Part 2: The Winner (@thewinner2875) and Ben Freeman (@benwfreeman1) on whether Vivek Ramaswamy is worth buying as a hedge Part 3: Mick Bransfield (@mickbransfield) on the CFTC's decision to reject Kalshi's election contracts Part 4: Nathan Young (@nathanpyoung) on religion and prediction markets  Timestamps 5:08: Interview with Lucas begins 6:39: Biden's cognitive decline 8:49: Biden's physical health 10:20: Biden's aneurysms 13:18: Biden's capacity to run a presidential campaign 15:19: Biden's risk of vaccine injury 18:45: How to trade on Biden's health on Polymarket 20:46: Segment on Ramaswamy begins 21:46: Ben Freeman on fading the online candidate 23:22: Segment on CFTC's Kalshi decision begins 24:21: Commissioner Mersinger's dissent 25:54: State laws on political betting 27:40: Why the CFTC is not main the adversary of political betting 28:14: Legality of the Iowa Electronic Markets 29:47: Kalshi's tried to find a shortcut 30:50: Excerpt of Chougule's speech on black markets 32:22: Segment with Nathan Young begins 32:37: How religion made Young interested in prediction markets 33:10: Forecasters were ahead of the curve on COVID 34:02: Similarities between the rationality and religious communities 38:05: Religious attitudes toward gambling in the UK 40:56: America's religious opposition to political betting Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter @ssgamblers.

Three-Part Episode In Part I, Ben Freeman and SSG Title Belt Champion The Winner review the DeSantis-Newsom debate and discuss whether DeSantis can make a comeback. In Part II, PlayUSA columnist Steve Friess offers lessons on what the political betting community can learn from how sports betting became mainstream. In Part III, Mick Bransfield provides theories on why Kalshi pressed ahead with election contracts at the CFTC knowing it didn't have the votes. Timestamps 4:30: Interview with Ben Freeman and The Winner begins 7:49: DeSantis's mannerisms 12:36: Is DeSantis deferring too much to advisors  15:03: Missed opportunities in the DeSantis-Newsom debate 18:42: Market prices on DeSantis and Nikki Haley 25:13: Trump's legal problems 27:23: Can Haley get through the Republican primaries? 30:16: Interview with Friess begins 34:46: Pratik's view on legalizing political betting at the state level 37:19: Interview with Bransfield begins 43:12: Incentives created by Kalshi's investors SUPPORT US: Patreon: www.patreon.com/starspangledgamblers FOLLOW US ON SOCIAL: Twitter: @ssgamblers VISIT OUR WEBPAGE: www.starspangledgamblers.com

Three-part episode: (1) Dr. Lucas—the "surgeon general of prediction market Twitter"—joins to discuss Mitch McConnell's health. Why did he "freeze" in public multiple times? Did the Congressional physician cover up his actual condition? (2) Rule3O3 discusses how large donors approach their political contributions (3) Jonathan Zubkoff (@zubbybadger) sounds the alarm on the opposition of U.S. Senators to political betting Timestamps 0:00: Introduction 5:01: Interview with Lucas begins 5:21: How political betting led to Lucas being swatted 8:07: How Lucas got into political betting 9:36: Improvements in political betting websites 10:13: Lucas's medical background 13:20: Polymarket's market on whether Mitch McConnell will resign by the end of the year 13:36: McConnell's freezing episodes 19:58: What is a seizure? 23:29: Did McConnell have a stroke? 24:02: Did the Congressional physician mislead the public about McConnell's condition? 26:41: The state of McConnell's health 29:59: Medications McConnell might be on right now 31:18: How the longshot could win on Polymarket 34:41: Segment with Rule3O3 begins 37:11: Segment with Jonathan Zubkoff begins Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter @ssgamblers

Colombia-based trader Ian Bezek (@irbezek) returns to the show to offer some final thoughts on the close and uncertain presidential race in Argentina. 1:32: Ian's thoughts on the final debate between Javier Milei and Sergio Massa 2:10: Ian's advice on Polymarket's margin market 5:20: Interview begins 6:06: Massa's backround 7:43: Massa's political baggage 8:45: Questions about Massa's alleged drug addiction 9:56: Market volatility since the eve of the first round of elections 11:39: Why did polls miss on the first round? 12:49: Milei's shortcomings 14:34: Summary of first round results 15:38: Why so much market volatility? 18:29: How much of Patricia Bullrich's support will go to Milei? 19:57: Argentina's economy 25:41: Milei's extremist statements 27:54: How foreign investors are seeing the election 29:19: Massa overperformed the polls 32:25: Polling 34:52: Ian's predictions and advice 35:50: Pratik's argument for buying Massa 39:18: Stock prices of Milei's former employer 40:58: Implications of a Milei victory for political betting 42:27: Recent elections in South America Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter: @ssgamblers

Eurasia expert Kristofer Harrison makes the case for why the odds of an invasion of Armenia by Azerbaijan are much higher than the market price on Polymarket. 3:54: Interview with Harrison begins 5:06: Do hedge funds use political betting insights? 7:10: Background on Armenia and Azerbaijan 7:56: Why there are tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan 12:15: Russia's role in the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict 14:29: Domestic politics in Armenia 15:18: Evidence that Azerbaijan is serious about invading 17:44: Why hasn't Azerbaijan already invaded Armenia? 18:43: Balance of power between Azerbaijan and Armenia 20:37: Have Russia and/orTurkey greenlighted an invasion? 22:08: Will the West stop a war? 24:12: Odds of an invasion 27:24: Influence of the weather in Nagorno-Karabach 29:57: How rogue is Aliyev? 33:43: Religion in Azerbaijan 35:05: How much does Azerbaijan care about international investment? 36:55: How keep up with news related to the Azerbaijan-Armenia market 38:44: Will Putin still be in power by the end of the year? Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter: @ssgamblers Join Star Spangled Gamblers on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/starspangledgamblers/posts

On the eve of the Kentucky governor's election, a new poll by Emerson suggests that the race could be much closer than initially expected. SSG Title Belt Champion TheWinner (@thewinner2875) and Dr. Cruse (@predoctit) join the show to make their final predictions. Although they generally agree in their analyses, they settle on a side bet and a challenge for the SSG Title Belt. 3:20: Main segment begins 4:10: Introduction to Dr. Cruse 6:51: Emerson polling 8:20: Current market prices 12:31: The role of national politics 14:16: Racial politics 17:21: SSG TItle Belt Challenge 23:36: Polling in Kentucky 24:30: Fundraising 25:25: Indicators pointing to a Beshear win 28:30: Limited national attention 31:10: Kentucky governors races as national bellweathers 35:36: Pratik summarizes the discussion 37:15: TheWinner's final margin prediction 37:58: Potential impact of the war in Israel Trade on Polymarket here: https://polymarket.com/event/will-a-democrat-win-the-kentucky-gubernatorial-election Follow SSG on Twitter: @ssgamblers

3-Part Episode — Keendawg returns to discuss why Andy Beshear, Kentucky's Democratic Governor, is favored for re-election, but why lottos on his Republican challenger might be a good bet — Pratik reports on new evidence that Kalshi was behind the CFTC's enforcement action against Polymarket — MagaVacuum explains how to gain a betting edge while traveling to campaign events Timestamps 4:24: Interview with Keendawg begins 4:40: Keendawg's role in founding Star Spangled Gamblers  7:14: Kentucky colonels 9:42: Who is Andy Beshear and why is he the favorite in the KY governor's race? 15:29: Who is Daniel Cameron? 18:20: Counties in Kentucky to watch 21:35: Why Andy Beshear won in 2019 22:14: Cameron's appeal 23:26: Background on KY politics 25:27: Partisan politics in KY 26:54: Lexington-Louisville rivalry 27:42: Davies County 28:47: Segment begins on Kalshi's role in Polymarket 30:18: Former CFTC official Maggie Sklar's comment to the CFTC against Kalshi 34:23: MAGAVacuum's research on communications and political prediction markets 36:00: How to gain an edge by traveling to campaign events Show Notes — Sklar's letter to CFTC https://comments.cftc.gov/PublicComments/ViewComment.aspx?id=72703&SearchText=sklar Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter: @ssgamblers Follow Pratik Chougule on Twitter: @pjchougule

After another review with a 30-day public comment period, the CFTC rejected Kalshi's proposal to offer election contracts. Mick Bransfield and Pratik Chougule do a deep dive into the outpouring of public comments that led to the CFTC's decision. 0:00: Introduction begins 2:14: Kalshi's incentives and how they shape its strategy toward political betting regulation 3:46: Kalshi's policy on transparency 5:27: Kalshi's diverging incentives from the political betting community 7:42: How Pratik's assumptions on political betting regulation differ from those of Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour 13:03: Interview with Mick begins 15:18: Background on the latest 30-day comment period 16:40: Why the CFTC received a flood of comments 17:46: Were the anti-Kalshi comments AI-generated? 18:10: Public Citizen 20:57: Better Markets 21:55: Letter from Representatives John Sarbanes and Jamie Raskin 22:55: Center for American Progress 25:09: Are prediction markets becoming a partisan football? 31:11: Errors and poor analysis in the anti-Kalshi letters 33:41: Kalshi's response 46:40: Why Pratik lost confidence in Kalshi's regulatory approach Links: Mick Bransfield's website: https://mickbransfield.com/markets/ Coalition for Political Forecasting: http://coalitionforpoliticalforecasting.org/ Coalition for Political Forecasting comment to CFTC: http://coalitionforpoliticalforecasting.org/coalition-for-political-forecasting-response-to-cftcs-request-for-public-comments-on-questions-related-to-kalshis-self-certified-congressional-control-contracts/

After listening to our recent episode about calls in the forecasting community to cancel him, Richard Hanania offered to appear on the show. Richard and Pratik Chougule discuss: — Cancel culture in the rationalist community — The conservative judiciary and how it could legalize prediction markets — The odds of Vivek Ramaswamy and Donald Trump to secure the GOP nomination — Balancing the incentives of being a forecaster and a pundit 3:25: Interview begins 4:14: Richard's new book The Origins of Woke and his association with Vivek Ramaswamy 7:00: Richard responds to those in the forecasting community who want to cancel him 8:12: How cancel culture is changing 10:13: Manifest Conference 11:12: Market-based responses to cancel culture 14:27: GOP nominee odds 15:56: Ramaswamy's views on prediction markets 17:50: PredictIt lawsuit against the CFTC 20:31: Conservative legal movement 32:20: Reasons why election markets became partisan 33:01: Political implications of Trump's legal problems 34:55: Hanania responds to haters and calls for open-mindedness 36:11: Incentives for political gambling versus punditry 40:11: Pratik plugs Origins of Woke

Ben Freeman and MAGA Vacuum return to the show to discuss their observations from the Iowa State Fair and their predictions on who will win the state's GOP caucuses. Timestamps 3:12: Interview begins 3:48: What is the Iowa State Fair and why is it significant for the Republican primaries? 5:31: Trump supporters trolling DeSantis 6:06: Trump's appearance 6:28: Ramaswamy rapping 7:30: DeSantis's prospects 23:40: Iowa evangelicals 26:23: DeSantis's ground game 31:38: Longshot candidates and nonstarters in Iowa 35:18: Odds of a Trump second place in Iowa 37:28: Ramaswamy supporters 38:06: Hatred of Pence 39:08: Freeman's post-interview notes

Rule3O3 and Pratik Chougule discuss whether the political forecasting community should cancel Richard Hanania in light of his edgy writings on race, sex, and other hot-button issues. Timestamps: 0:53: Jonathan Zubkoff wins the CSPI/Salem Center forecasting tournament 2:58: Manifest conference 5:04: Crime markets on Manifold 6:58: Open invitation to Hanania to appear on SSG 10:23: Who is Hanania? 15:22: Why a cancel attempt on Hanania 19:09: Should Hanania be canceled from the forecasting community? 23:24: Peter Wildeford's criticism 29:03: Aaron Bergman's warning on ideological policing 32:22: Political betting as a solution to political polarization 33:52: OutsideContextProblem's criticism of Hanania as a troll 36:46: Rob Henderson's defense of Hanania 38:27: Oliver Habryka's proposed standard for canceling Hanania 40:45: Why Aella isn't canceled 43:47: David Manheim's critique on Hanania making people feel unwelcome 45:05: Ezra Brody's question on engaging "gross people"

Intro: Pratik Chougule  Part I: Jonathan Zubkoff (Zubby Badger) discusses the possibility of a government shutdown and how it will likely be averted Part II: Mick Bransfield discusses the new judge, David Ezra, who will be overseeing the PredictIt case at the district court Part III: Pratik responds to mailbag from Domer on overconfident marks in political betting markets and argues for recruiting experts to participate in prediction markets   1:45: Pratik promotes the Manifest Conference https://www.manifestconference.net/ 5:46: Zubby on the possibility of a government shutdown 30:02: Mick Bransfield on David Ezra, the new judge who will oversee the PredictIt case at the district court 38:47: Pratik responds to mailbag from Domer on arrogance in political betting and argues for recruiting experts into political prediction markets

Intro: Pratik's thoughts on the first Republican presidential debate Part I: Pratik interviews PlayUSA columnist Steve Friess about his reporting on why political prediction markets missed the 2022 Senate races, and why the policymaking community is skeptical of political gambling. Part II: Jonathan Zubkoff (Zubby Badger) discusses the circumstances in which Trump will attend a Republican debate   Timestamps 0:12: Pratik introduces the interview with Steve Friess 1:37: Pratik introduces segment with Zubby Badger on whether Trump will attend a debate 2:59: Political betting insights from the first Republican debate 10:32: Friess's interest in political gambling 13:55: Why betting markets missed the 2022 midterms 21:05: Policymaking community's skepticism of political gambling 39:17: Factors in whether Trump will show up to a Republican debate

Intro: Pratik Chougule discusses a recent Manifold meetup he attended and the importance of attending in-person forecasting community events Part 1: Rule3O3 joins the show for the first time to discuss epistemic humility in political betting and how to realize the promise of political prediction markets. Part 2: Ben Freeman and Pratik Chougule continue their conversation on 2024 Republican presidential primary. Ben and Pratik discuss whether a fractured Republican field will save Trump again or whether the electorate will rally around an alternative. Timestamps 0:00: Pratik introduces the two segments 1:12: Manifold and the importance of in-person forecasting events 6:34: Rule3O3 intro 8:26: Political prediction market efficiency 10:29: Epistemic humility in prediction markets 13:26: Technical analysis 16:20: Fun in prediction markets 18:43: Ben Freeman on whether a fractured Republican field will save Trump again or whether the electorate will rally around DeSantis 20:43: High-profile Republican endorsements 23:19: Attacks on Trump 27:39: Trump's financial problems 29:41: Will Republicans coalesce around an alternative 33:41: DeSantis's strengths and weaknesses 39:54: Ben's picks on PredictIt 41:57: Pence lottos

Longtime PredictIt trader Ben Freeman argues that the markets are overly pessimistic about Ron DeSantis's odds of winning the Republican nomination and makes the bull case for buying at current prices. 1:23: DeSantis's comments about betting markets on John Stossel's show 6:24: Ben Freeman introduces himself 8:16: Ben's experience as a Trump White House intern 12:13: Why DeSantis prices have dropped 14:24: Why DeSantis remains the strongest candidate after Trump 24:19: Trump's odds 36:31: DeSantis's campaign troubles

Mick Bransfield and Pratik Chougule do a deep dive into the Fifth Circuit's decision to grant PredictIt a preliminary injunction and what it means for traders as well as the broader political betting community. Bransfield and Chougule also speculate on why PredictIt still isn't rolling out new markets. 4:53: Summary of Fifth Circuit ruling 14:51: CFTC attorneys and their legal strategy against PredictIt 27:19: PredictIt hiring for a DCM 31:21: New markets at PredictIt? 34:20: SSG website down    

Part I (3:46): Adrian Smith responds to CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam's concerns that election markets could turn the CFTC into an "election cop."  Part II (27:01): Iabvek and Pratik side bet on whether Ron DeSantis will even win one county in the Republican primaries Part III (36:37): Mick Bransfield discusses whether Kalshi "killed" PredictIt and/or Polymarket and how the FOIA process works at the CFTC Part IV (40:53): Mailbag on Kalshi's recent debt ceiling market