Politics Is Everything

Kyle Kondik and Carah Ong Whaley discuss Senator Mitch McConnell's legacy after he announced his intention to step down from his role as Senate Republican Leader effective November 2024. They also talk about the Michigan presidential primary election results; the impact of district changes after the New York State Assembly and Senate both passed a new New York Congressional map this week that was signed into law by Governor Kathy Hochul; a preview of the California Congressional primary; and the recent history of split-ticket voting in presidential and Senate elections.  Links in this episode:  The Postwar History of Senate/Presidential Ticket-Splitting, Part Two Notes on the State of Politics: Feb. 28, 2024

Kyle Kondik and Carah Ong Whaley discuss recent political developments and new analyses on the Crystal Ball, including reduced split-ticket voting in Senate elections, updates on 2024 Senate contests, insights from the NY-3 special election results and the significance of New York redistricting for the House of Representatives. They also highlight the decreasing number of competitive House seats and the potential impact on future control of the House. Links in this episode Notes on the State of the Senate Big NY-3 Win Brings Democrats Ever Closer in the House

In this episode, Kyle Kondik and Carah Ong Whaley discuss the recent Nevada caucus and primary results and dive into the potential impact of ticket-splitting in down-ballot House of Representatives elections this year. Rich Thau, president of Engagious, also joins Carah, Tyler Busch, Zoe Shook, and Etienne Ouellette to discuss focus groups with voters in key states for the 2024 elections. The 2024 Deciders is a project with Sago and Syracuse University's Institute for Democracy, Journalism and Citizenship, In the presidential elections The Race for the House, Part One The Race for the House, Part Two Engagious - 2024 Deciders

Award-winning journalist Darren Samuelsohn joins Carah Ong Whaley and Ella Doddridge (UVA ‘26) to help make sense of the various Trump trials and their implications for politics and the upcoming election, what it's really like covering the former president, and navigating journalism in the modern media landscapes. Links in this episode: Love, Journalism Darren Samuelsohn Court Listener

In this episode, Kyle Kondik and Carah Ong Whaley discuss what they learned about voter turnout in the New Hampshire primary election and how they are thinking about the upcoming presidential primary elections. They also discuss the recent decision in Louisiana to create a second Black-majority Congressional district, ending a nearly two-year saga over adequate Black representation in the state.  Links in this episode:  The Fields Above the Graves: Louisiana 2024 Redistricting Trump Clears the New Hampshire Hurdle

Polls suggest that the New Hampshire Primary should be more competitive than Donald Trump's large margin in Iowa's low-turnout caucus. Just 4 of New Hampshire's 10 counties will likely comprise 75% of the primary electorate. Dante Scala, University of New Hampshire, joins Kyle Kondik and Carah Ong Whaley to offer a guide to which New England hamlets offer the best clues to the outcome on Tuesday, January 23, 2024. Kyle also discusses among which key demographic groups Donald Trump did better in Iowa's low-turnout 2024 caucus compared to 2016. Links in this episode A Roadmap for the New Hampshire GOP Primary Big Iowa Win Confirms Trump's Stranglehold on GOP

It's a flurry of snow and presidential campaigning in Iowa this week in the leadup to the Hawkeye state's caucuses on Monday, January 15, 2024. Although former president Donald J. Trump continues to hold the lead in polling averages by 30+ percentage points in Iowa, candidates and campaigns are inundating the public with ads, leaflets and rallies, hoping Iowans will brave the freezing temperatures and weather conditions to caucus for them.  Dr. Karen Kedrowski, Director of the Carrie Chapman Catt Center for Women and Politics at Iowa State University, joins Kyle Kondik and Carah Ong Whaley to discuss campaign strategies, changes to the Democratic caucus, and how all the efforts might impact the outcome and what it means for the 2024 presidential election. They also discuss changing demographics in Iowa and key areas to watch as caucus results roll in.  Links in this episode:  Carrie Chapman Catt Center for Women and Politics at Iowa State University Previewing the Iowa Caucus: A brief history of the Hawkeye State's caucus, and some areas to watch by J. Miles Coleman and Kyle Kondik (January 11, 2024) 

As we commemorate the third anniversary of the attacks on the U.S. Capitol, we talk with DC Metropolitan Police Officer Daniel Hodges. On January 6, 2021, Ofc. Hodges responded with Civil Defense Unit 42 to the attacks on the U.S. Capitol as Capitol Police units were overrun. Ofc. Hodges fought those who assaulted the Capitol on the west lawn, the west terrace, and in the tunnel leading out to the inaugural platform, sustaining many injuries in the process. While fighting in the tunnel he was crushed by rioters in the west terrace doors of the Capitol and beaten. He returned to full duty within a month and continues to serve as an officer. Not only does he continue to serve, he also has testified in court cases about January 6 and in a case in the Colorado Supreme Court, which recently ruled  that Donald Trump is disqualified from the state's 2024 ballot under the Constitution's “insurrectionist ban.” Former President Donald Trump formally asked the US Supreme Court to reverse that decision on January 3. Along with others who defended democracy on January 6, 2021, Officer Hodges received a Congressional medal, the Presidential Citizens Medal and the Center for Politics' 2023 Defenders of Democracy award. Hodges joined the Washington D.C. Metropolitan Police Department in 2014.  Hodges has also received multiple awards for his services with MPD, including a Commendation medal for responding to a man brandishing a gun and threatening MPD Officers and talking him into disarming and surrendering.  Civil Disturbance Unit 42 is a "rapid response" platoon that is equipped with non-standard defensive gear and is activated for policing a variety of First Amendment assemblies, protests, and riots. Links in this episode: Officer Daniel Hodges testifies to Congress about the January 6, 2021 attacks on the U.S. Capitol.

Kyle Kondik shares his new analysis on Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball that compares Trump's approval in 2019 to Biden's approval in 2023, the same point in each presidency. He finds that Biden's lower approval is not driven by a higher level of antipathy from Republicans. Kyle and Carah Ong Whaley also reflect on the state of democracy and the upcoming 2024 elections.  Links in this episode:  Notes on the State of Politics: Dec. 13, 2023

Former Members of Congress Barbara Comstock (Republican) and L.F. Payne (Democrat), and Alex Theodoridis (UMass) join Carah Ong Whaley and Samuel Kipps (UVA '23) to discuss the findings from a new survey on the perspectives, beliefs, and experiences of former members of Congress, with a specific focus on concerns about violence in 2024 and the differing narratives surrounding the events of January 6th. They also discuss the state of dysfunction and polarization in Congress and efforts to rebuild trust and civility in politics. Rep. Comstock is a senior adviser for the law and lobbying firm, Baker Donelson, a political commentator, and, most importantly, a resident scholar with us here at the Center for Politics, among many esteemed positions. Rep. Payne is president of Three Ridges Group in Charlottesville, VA, and a member of the University of Virginia's Board of Visitors. and also joining us is Alex Theodoridis, Associate Professor of Political Science and co-director of the UMass Poll at the University of Massachusetts Amherst.  Links in this episode:  U.S. Association of Former Members of Congress and University of Massachusetts Amherst UMass Poll

Kyle Kondik and Carah Ong Whaley discuss the December 6, 2023 Republican primary debate, Nikki Haley's moment and the broader dynamics of the race for the Republican presidential nomination, and the challenges faced by the other candidates in their attempts to attract Trump's voters. They also talk about the retirements of several members of Congress and the implications for lawmaking and upcoming elections, as well as the new congressional map in Georgia. Links in this episode:  Notes on the State of Politics: Dec. 7, 2023 The GOP Primary: Lowest-Hanging Fruit Remains Out of Reach for Trump Rivals

ABC News Chief Washington Correspondent Jonathan Karl joins Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato to discuss his new book, Tired of Winning: Donald Trump and the End of the Grand Old Party. Karl offers new insights and reporting in his third book on Donald Trump's presidency and its aftermath with implications if he were to return for a second term.

In this episode, Kyle Kondik and Carah Ong Whaley talk with Patrick Ruffini, a Founding Partner of Echelon Insights and Republican pollster about his new book Party of the People: Inside the Multiracial Populist Coalition Remaking the GOP. The book examines an unfolding political realignment especially along class lines with implications for the 2024 elections and beyond.

Representative Ted Lieu, named by Time Magazine as one of the 100 most influential people in AI in 2023, joins us to discuss how the chaos in the House of Representatives is preventing progress on addressing the promises and challenges of generative Artificial Intelligence. He also shares his views on how AI might impact the workforce and elections. On the impact of deepfakes in the 2024 elections, Congressman Lieu says, “It's going to be a problem and the best counter to it is to urge everyone to not trust what they see.”  Rep. Lieu represents California's 36th Congressional District and is serving his fifth term in Congress and currently sits on the House Judiciary, Foreign Affairs, and Science, Space, and Technology Committees. He was also elected by his colleagues to serve as Vice Chair of the Democratic Caucus, making him the highest ranking Asian American to have ever served in House Leadership. He also has the distinction of being the first member of Congress to introduce legislation written by General Artificial Intelligence.  Links in this episode:  Bipartisan House members propose AI commission

On Tuesday, November 7, 2023 voters in several states will go to the polls to cast ballots in state and local elections. Many voters have already cast a ballot early in-person or by mail. Kyle Kondik and Carah Ong Whaley discuss the Crystal Ball's mega preview of some of the key elections we are watching: gubernatorial elections in Kentucky and Mississippi; the state legislative contests in Virginia; an abortion-related ballot issue in Ohio; and a state Supreme Court race in Pennsylvania.  Links in this episode:  A 2023 Election Mega-Preview

Center for Politics Professor of Practice Liz Cheney sat down with Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato and other members of our team this week for a discussion about the challenges facing American politics and democracy. She speaks out for the first time about the new Speaker of House Mike Johnson (R-LA-4) and why he is dangerous. Cheney's forthcoming book, Oath and Honor: A Memoir and a Warning, is now available for pre-order and will be released on December 5, 2023. Cheney, former chair of the House Republican Conference, joined the Center for Politics as Professor of Practice in March.

In this episode, we dive into a new analysis by Kyle Kondik, Managing Editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball, about where third parties run strong and where we should expect the third party vote to be meaningfully higher or lower in the most important states in the Electoral College in 2024. We also discuss the election of Representative Mike Johnson as Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives. Carah Ong Whaley also talks with Gretchen Barton, Principal of Worthy Strategy Group, LLC, about a new study of perceptions of leadership and what it means for women in politics. Natalie Jackson of the National Journal joins us for the conversation. After learning about Gretchen Barton's new study, we wondered what images would come to mind about political leadership for UVA students and we conducted a little experiment. Let us know if the study or what students say resonate with you. Email us at goodpolitics @ virginia.edu  Links in this Episode:  Worthy Strategy Group Sabato's Crystal Ball -Third Party Wild Card Why Haven't We Had a Woman President Women and Political Leadership Ahead of the 2024 Election

Joel K. Goldstein, a vice presidency scholar at St. Louis University, joins Kyle Kondik and Carah Ong Whaley to discuss lessons from history on vice presidential selection. Despite headlines quick to suggest that the Republican primary debates are an audition to Donald Trump's running mate, history suggests that whoever wins the Republican presidential nomination is unlikely to choose one of their rivals for the nomination as his or her running mate. They also discuss challenges for Vice President Kamala Harris.  Links in this episode:  2024 GOP Rivals Teaming Up on the Ticket? Don't Bet on It

Matt Hodges, Executive Director of Zinc Labs at the Zinc Collective, joins Carah Ong Whaley and Ella Nelsen (UVA ‘25) to discuss the role of technology in campaigns and elections and what lawmakers should consider in frameworks governing the use of tech tools, including Generative Artificial Intelligence.  Also in this episode, Kyle Kondik discusses his new analysis of how the 2024 election might be historic in that we could have a pair of presidential candidates who sweep their party nominating contests, even in spite of their weaknesses and liabilities. Links in this episode:  Matt Hodges Zinc Collective Quiller Higher Grounds Labs Trump and Biden Seek Historic Combined Sweep

In this episode, Kyle Kondik and Carah Ong Whaley share takeaways from the second Republican presidential primary debate, held on September 27, 2023 at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, California. They also talk about new analysis on the Crystal Ball by Carah and Kylie Holzman (UVA ‘26) about why the United States hasn't had a woman president.  Links in this episode:  Why Haven't We Had A Woman President?

Virginia is one of just four states — Louisiana, New Jersey, and Mississippi are the others — that hold state legislative elections in odd-numbered years. It's entirely plausible that following the 2023 elections, Virginia could join Georgia and New Hampshire as states that have one-party state government that is different from the party that won the state in the most recent presidential election. Since Spring, Virginians' ratings of the Governor and of the president have been relatively stable - 51% of Virginians approve of the way Youngkin is handling his job as governor and 40% approve of the way Biden is handling his job as president. In this episode, Kyle Kondik and Carah Ong Whaley discuss new analyses on Sabato's Crystal Ball regarding what's at stake in the Virginia legislative elections.  David Sirota, founder and editor-in-chief of The Lever, also joins Center for Politics interns Eli Weinger and Abigail Ronsonet to talk about the role of big money in politics, Biden's chances for reelection in 2024 and the crisis amongst American men. Links in this episode:  The Battle for the Virginia State Legislature  The Lever

“The QUESTION CIRCULATING around Silicon Valley isn't if such a scenario is worth it, even with a 1 PERCENT CHANCE OF ANNIHILATION,” writes Nick Bilton in Vanity Fair, “but rather, if it is really such a bad thing if we build a machine that CHANGES HUMAN LIFE AS WE KNOW IT.” Bilton joins us to share his research on Artificial Intelligence and its implications for politics and society. Nick Bilton is a special correspondent at Vanity Fair, and his new article is: Artificial Intelligence May Be Humanity's Most Ingenious Invention—And Its Last? at VanityFair.com and in Vanity Fair's October issue, also on newsstands as of September 19.

In this episode, Kyle and Carah talk with Crystal Ball Senior Columnist Louis Jacobson about his new analysis on "excess seats" in state legislatures as well as House Republicans' recently-announced impeachment inquiry into President Biden, his journalism career with PolitiFact, and much more.  Louis Jacobson is the senior correspondent with PolitiFact. Previously, he served as deputy editor of Roll Call and as founding editor of its legislative wire service, CongressNow. Earlier, he spent more than a decade covering politics, policy, Congress and lobbying for National Journal magazine. He is senior author of the 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, and 2024 editions of The Almanac of American Politics.  Links in this episode:  Politifact articles by Louis Jacobson The Republicans' 'Excess Seat' Edge in State Legislatures  The Almanac of American Politics

In this episode, Grace Panetta, a political reporter at The 19th, joins Kyle Kondik, Carah Ong Whaley and Kylie Holzman to discuss several key issues for the 2024 election, including media coverage of women candidates, voter turnout, dramatic shifts in election law landscape, and ongoing threats to democracy posed by election denialism.  Also, in this episode, Kyle discusses his new analysis on Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball about how the most populous counties versus the least populous counties have voted in presidential elections from 1996-2020. In 1996, Bill Clinton won both the most (by 15.7 percentage points) and least populous counties (1.8 point margin). That means the difference between the two was 13.9 points. By 2020, the gap between the most vs. least populous counties was 39.2 points.  Links in this episode How the Other Half Votes: The United States, Part Two by Kyle Kondik The 19th articles by Grace Panetta Nikki Haley's Time for Choosing by Tim Alberta  The Red Ripple: The 2022 Midterm Elections and What They Mean for 2024

On August 23, 2023, Republican candidates addressed questions on a range of issues facing the nation including the economy, abortion rights, and support for former President Trump even as he faces several indictments in the first presidential primary debate hosted by Fox News. Just 30 minutes into the debate, Chris LaCivita, a political consultant with the Trump campaign said the former president made the right decision to not participate and instead do his own interview with Tucker Carlson that was streamed on X (former Twitter).  In this episode, Kyle Kondik and Carah Ong Whaley discuss the first Republican presidential primary debate, Donald Trump's interview and what we can glean about the state of the Republican Party and issues facing the nation.  Links in this episode:  Explaining Republican Loyalty to Trump: The Crucial Role of Negative Partisanship Republicans view Reagan, Trump as best recent presidents Donald Trump is most Republicans' first-choice candidate Younger evangelicals in the U.S. are more concerned than their elders about climate change Oliver Anthony - Rich Men North Of Richmond

Since SCOTUS 2022 Dobbs ruling, seven states - California, Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan, Montana, Ohio and Vermont - have voted on ballot measures that relate directly or indirectly to reproductive rights. Reproductive rights advocates have come out on the winning side in all seven. J. Miles Coleman discusses the first installment of his analysis on how these initiatives fared relative to other elections in Kansas, Michigan and Ohio. Dr. Craig Holman of Public Citizen also joins Carah Ong Whaley, Marina George and Keshav Hajarnavis to discuss a new public comment opportunity to the Federal Election Commission (FEC) on amending regulations to include deliberately deceptive Artificial Intelligence in campaign ads.  Links in this episode:  ·      The Atlas of Post-Dobbs Abortion Ballot Measures: Part One ·      Comments sought on amending regulation to include deliberately deceptive Artificial Intelligence in campaign ads

A new generation of generative artificial intelligence heralds a new era of campaigns and elections with the potential for disrupting democratic institutions and processes. “What we are concerned about is the weaponization of information,” says Representative Yvette Clarke (D-New York-9), who joins Carah Ong Whaley, Marina George and Keoni Vega to discuss the promise and perils of Gen AI and efforts in Congress to set up guardrails. “I'm not content with where we are. I feel an urgency to get us to where we need to be. We have the knowledge and understanding, but we don't have the regulatory regime that truly protects the American people.” Links in this episode:  H.R. 3044: REAL Political Advertisements Act / S.1596 - REAL Political Advertisements Act Statement on Biden-Harris Administration Securing Voluntary Risk Commitments from Leading AI Companies Huster Magazine, Inc. V Falwell Algorithmic Accountability Act

This week, Ohio voters rejected a Republican-led measure that would have increased the threshold required to change the state's constitution. Significantly, more than three million voters turned out for the special election, which is about 75% of 2022 midterm turnout in the state. More than 640,000 people voted early — a number that could still rise from late-arriving mail ballots — outpacing overall turnout for a 2022 August special election in the state. The struggle over Issue 1 drew more than $35 million in spending, with most of the funding coming from out-of-state groups. The whole point of this process was to erect an impassable barrier in front of a looming constitutional amendment on the ballot in November 2023 that would enshrine reproductive rights protections into the state constitution. Issue 1 would have made it much harder for redistricting reformers to successfully present a constitutional amendment to voters, perhaps in 2024, to establish a new, independent redistricting system in Ohio, which Republicans would oppose. Links in this episode:  Ohio's Issue 1 Smackdown: The left scores another win in an abortion rights proxy fight; apparent turnout and persuasion edge drives Democratic success

In this episode, Kyle Kondik discusses his new analysis of how the most populous vs. least populous counties in the United States have voted in recent presidential elections. Kyle and Carah Ong Whaley also discuss the third indictment of former president Donald J. Trump and implications for the 2024 presidential election.    Links in this episode:  How the Other Half Votes: The United States, Part One

Will the number of split partisan results between presidential and gubernatorial outcomes continue to decline in 2024?  Kyle Kondik discusses the dwindling crossover governorships. We also look at “beer track vs. wine track” Republican voters, and how both tracks remain supportive of the former president in the primary despite his weak spots, with the other candidates trying to claw away from DeSantis who remains distant second. Carah Ong Whaley and Skylar Tessler also talk with Nora Neus, Emmy nominated producer, writer, freelance journalist and author of 24 Hours in Charlottesville: An Oral History of the Stand Against White Supremacy. Neus is an alumna of the University of Virginia and field-produced Anderson Cooper's coverage of the 2017 white nationalist riot in Charlottesville, Virginia. Links in this episode:  Notes on the State of Politics: July 27, 2023 The Dwindling Crossover Governorships 24 Hours in Charlottesville: An Oral History of the Stand Against White Supremacy

In the new Center for Politics Crystal Ball ratings for the 2024 presidential election, Arizona is just one of four initial toss-up states. In this episode, Carah Ong Whaley and Skylar Tessler talk with Thom Reilly, co-director of the Center for an Independent and Sustainable Democracy at Arizona State University, about a new survey of Arizonans and their views about elections and election systems.  Links in this episode:  Consensus and Concern in Arizona's Hot Political Climate: Voter Attitudes About Elections

A hot-off-the-press Pew Research Center report finds that Latino/a/x voters continued to support Democrats in 2022, but by a much smaller margin than in 2018. However, Latino/a/x voters were most likely to have not voted in any of the most recent three general elections than other demographic groups. In this episode, we talk with Mark Hugo Lopez, director of race and ethnicity research at Pew Research Center, about issues that matter to Latino/a/x voters and what candidates and campaigns can do to reach the Latino/a/x population. He also discusses the broader turnout story of the 2022 midterm elections.  Links in this episode:  Republican Gains in 2022 Midterms Driven Mostly by Turnout Advantage The Red Ripple: The 2022 Midterm Elections and What They Mean for 2024 Equis Research 2022 Post Mortem

This week, the Center for Politics published its first Electoral College ratings for the 2024 presidential election on Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball. As it stands now, it looks like fewer states than ever could pick the next president. In this episode, Kyle Kondik discusses why we should expect a narrow but competitive election in 2024.  Links in this episode:  Electoral College Ratings: Expect Another Highly Competitive Election How the Other Half Votes: The Southwest

The coverage of the Moore v. Harper Supreme Court case has primarily focused on its implications for partisan gerrymandering. But the ruling also has significant implications for racial gerrymandering. Mitchell D. Brown, Senior Counsel for the Voting Rights Section of the Southern Coalition for Social Justice, one of the organizations involved in Moore v. Harper, joins us to discuss why checks and balances on state legislative activity are critical to safeguarding the rights of Black voters.  Links in this episode:  Moore v. Harper  Shelby v. Holder Gonidakis v. Ohio Redistricting Commission Allen v. Milligan Brooks v. Abbott  Stephenson v. Bartlett  The Purcell Principle:  An Explainer from Democracy Docket

Becky Harper, the named plaintiff in Moore vs. Harper, is a citizen-activist who cares deeply about free and fair elections.  She joins us to tell her story about the journey to the Supreme Court and what lies ahead for voting rights and representation. In a 6-3 ruling in the case Moore v. Harper issued June 27, 2023, the U.S. Supreme Court has rejected an extreme version of the so-called “independent state legislature” theory that posed serious challenges for the conduct of elections and would have allowed state legislatures to engage in election subversion (something that was attempted in the 2020 election). In its opinion, the Supreme Court upheld the long-running interpretation of the term “Legislature” in the Elections Clause in Article I, Section IV, Clause 1 and in the Presidential Electors Clause in Article II, Section 1, Clause 2 of the Constitution, making clear that state legislatures do not wield free floating power in the conduct of elections and that their power must be understood in the context of the system of state government, including judicial review. The court also affirmed its 2015 ruling in Arizona State Legislature v. Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission that states legislatures do not violate this interpretation when they use voter initiatives to create independent redistricting commissions to draw congressional lines. Rebecca Harper is a citizen-activist who cares deeply about free and fair elections.  She was the named plaintiff in Moore vs. Harper and in the two prior cases that led to Moore v Harper: Harper v Hall, and Harper v Lewis.   Links in this episode:  Moore v. Harper  Harper v. Hall  Harper v. Lewis Rucho v. Common Cause Arizona State Legislature v. Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission

June is Alzheimer's & Brain Awareness Month and our guests for this episode have personal and professional experience with Alzheimer's Disease. Luke Albee worked in the U.S. Senate for 27 years, including as a chief of staff for both Senators Patrick Leahy (VT) and Mark Warner (VA). Karen Garner is the Advocacy Manager for the Alzheimer's Association for all of Virginia. Co-hosting this episode is Dr. David Goldberg, Assistant Clinical Professor at Virginia Commonwealth University. Links in this episode:  Alzheimer's Association UVA Memory and Aging Care Clinic (MACC) Missing Jim Executive Order on Increasing Access to High-Quality Care and Supporting Caregivers A lifetime of racism makes Alzheimer's more common in Black Americans Social Determinants of Health What Does the New Congress Mean for Family Policy?

The June 20, 2023 primary elections in Virginia were the first time voters encountered the state's new electoral maps, which were drawn under supervision of the Supreme Court of Virginia after a bipartisan panel appointed by the legislature failed to reach agreement. Kyle Kondik, J. Miles Coleman and Carah Ong Whaley discuss turnover, turnout, fundraising, key issues and what to watch in the general election later this year.

In response to a false narrative perpetuated by mainstream media suggesting that Congress has yet to propose legislation “to protect individuals or thwart the development of A.I.'s potentially dangerous aspects,” Anna Lenhart shows in a new report that Congress is working to address the harms of Artificial Intelligence. She joins us to discuss A.I., data, privacy, transparency and accountability, and the many legislative proposals Congress has introduced to address harmful content.  Anna Lenhart is a Policy Fellow, Institute for Data, Democracy & Politics (IDDP) at George Washington University.She most recently served in the House of Representatives as the Senior Technology Legislative Aide to Rep Lori Trahan (117th Congress) and as a Congressional Innovation Fellow for the House Judiciary Digital Markets Investigation (116th Congress).  Prior to working for Congress, Anna was a Senior Consultant and the AI Ethics Initiative Lead for IBM's Federal Government Consulting Division, training data scientists and operationalizing principles of transparency, algorithm bias and privacy rights in AI and Machine Learning systems.  Links in this episode:  Federal AI Legislation: An Analysis of Proposals from the 117th Congress Relevant to Generative AI tools “As A.I. Booms, Lawmakers Struggle to Understand the Technology,” New York Times

First-past-the-post is not baked in the U.S. Constitution and single-member, winner-take-all elections have not always been a given in Congressional elections. But why did Congress mandate single-member districts for U.S. House of Representatives elections in 1967 with the passage of the 1967 Uniform Congressional District Act (UCDA)? And, could replacing current winner-take-all elections with a proportional system of representation curb political extremism and gerrymandering, restore competition to congressional races and expand opportunities for racial representation? Grant Tudor from Protect Democracy joins Kyle Kondik and Carah Ong Whaley to discuss the evidence from decades of research and a new report. Links in this episode: Towards Proportional Representation for the U.S. House There's a way to fix gerrymandering (and it's not through the courts) Is Ranked Choice Voting a Cure for What Ails Politics?

Legal scholars, voting rights and racial justice advocates alike are expressing surprise at the Supreme Court's 4-3 ruling in Allen v. Milligan on June 8, 2023 that upholds Section 2 of Voting Rights Act. The court upheld a lower court's decision to strike down an Alabama congressional map because it discriminated against Black voters in violation of Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act. Dave Daley, Senior Fellow at Fair Vote, joins Kyle Kondik and Carah Ong Whaley to discuss the ripple effects of the ruling for representation, redistricting and the 2024 elections.  David Daley is the author of “Ratf**ked: Why Your Vote Doesn't Count” and “Unrigged: How Americans Are Battling Back to Save Democracy.” His work has appeared in CNN, the New Yorker, New York Times, Atlantic and Washington Post, among other publications.  Links in this episode:  Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act Allen v. Milligan Bronovich v. DNC Ruccho v. Common Cause Shelby v. Holder Thornburg v. Gingles Fair Vote  

In this episode, Natalie Jackson, who writes the “Leading Indicators” column at the National Journal, joins Kyle Kondik and Carah Ong Whaley to discuss what polling tells us about whether anyone from the crowded field of Republican presidential candidates really has a chance against Donald Trump and critiques the new debate rules the Republican National Committee released for the first debate set for August 2023. Jackson also shares her research on the role that reproductive rights played in the 2022 elections and the role it might play in 2024.  Links in this episode:  Herding Cats and Polls  “Leading Indicators” at the National Journal

On May 31, the U.S. House of Representatives passed legislation to increase the debt limit by a vote of 314-117, with more Democrats supporting it than Republicans. The debt limit simply allows the United States to spend money on programs that have already been authorized by Congress. However, this debt ceiling deal includes provisions to restrict non-defense spending, amends the National Environmental Policy Act, approves a controversial natural gas pipeline, ends the pause on student loan payments, and imposes work requirements on some people who receive SNAP benefits. Out of 100 members of the House Progressive Caucus, 60 voted yes and 40 voted no; while of the 43 hard-right Republicans who are either members of the House Freedom Caucus or voted no against McCarthy as speaker, 8 voted yes, 34 voted no and 1 didn't vote. Kyle Kondik and Carah Ong Whaley discuss the U.S. House of Representatives vote on legislation to increase the U.S. debt limit and what it means.  Also in this episode we talk with Paul Hobby, UVA ‘82 and co-founder of the private equity firm Genesis Park, about Texas politics, including the impeachment of Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, and about his new book Glorious Tension: Rediscovering Our Sacred Middle Ground in an Age of Extremism.

Just one in seven Black voters cast a ballot for Republican House candidates in 2022, and while that represents a nearly 50 percent increase from 2018 (14 percent up from 9 percent), Black Republicanism remains the red, according to new analysis of Black voter behavior by Ted Johnson, a contributor to our 2022 post-election book The Red Ripple: The 2022 Midterm Elections and What They Mean for 2024. Black voters have largely been and remain a uniform voting bloc because the parties have organized themselves around civil rights - either taking a proactive stance or by opposing or remaining silent on civil rights issues. Johnson joins us to discuss what Black Americans want and need from both political parties and from our political system in order to realize the ideals set out in the Declaration of Independence. Ted Johnson is a Senior Advisor at New America leading its flagship Us@250 initiative and contributing columnist at The Washington Post. Links in this episode:  Us@250 Initiative When the Stars Begin to Fall: Overcoming Racism and Renewing the Promise of America (Grove Atlantic, 2021) The Anger Gap by Davin L. Phoenix (Cambridge University Press, 2019)

The 2022 election defied conventional wisdom and historical trends. Michael Frias and Haris Aqeel with the firm Catalist join Kyle Kondik and Carah Ong Whaley to discuss why and share findings from a new report analyzing what happened in the 2022 midterms elections.  Michael Frias is the CEO of Catalist with over twenty years combined experience in politics, state government, and the federal government. Prior to joining Catalist, Michael was at the Department of Homeland Security.  Haris Aqeel is Senior Advisor at Catalist and the report lead author. He has a decade of experience in political analytics, campaigns, and organizational strategy.  Links in this episode:  What Happened™ in 2022: An Analysis of the 2022 Midterms  Leaning Into State Trends: The West Coast – Sabato's Crystal Ball

With some 65 elections across 54 countries slated for 2024, how can social media and other online companies prepare? Katie Harbath, Chief Executive for Anchor Change and a fellow at the Bipartisan Policy Center, shares how companies, individuals and government entities can support election integrity, increase transparency around artificial intelligence, and combat mis- and malinformation.   Previously Katie was a public policy director at Facebook (now Meta) where, over the course of ten years, she was credited with building out and leading a 30-person global team responsible for managing elections. Prior to Facebook, Katie held senior strategic digital roles at the Republican National Committee, the National Republican Senatorial Committee, DCI Group and multiple campaigns.   Links in this episode:  Integrity Institute, Elections integrity best practices A Brief History of Tech and Elections EU Regulatory Framework on AI EU Digital Services Act 

In this episode, Nathan Sanders joins us to discuss how Artificial Intelligence technologies are impacting political processes in complex ways, including increasing disruptive risks to legislative processes but also providing enforcement mechanisms. Sanders also addresses what regulatory frameworks and Codes of Ethics should include.  Nathan Sanders is a data scientist and an Affiliate at the Berkman Klein Center at Harvard University where he is focused on creating open technology to help vulnerable communities and all stakeholders participate in the analysis and development of public policy. Cover art for this episode was generated by DALL-E. Links in this episode:  How ChatGPT Hijacks Democracy (NYT) We Don't Need to Reinvent our Democracy to Save it from AI Large Language Models as Lobbyists How AI could write our laws Massachusetts Platform for Legislative Engagement White House AI Bill of Rights Share GPT

“We need the next president to be a financial expert,” says Steve Laffey, two-term former mayor of Cranston, Rhode Island, financial expert and 2024 Republican presidential candidate. Laffey joins us to discuss America's financial crisis and what he would do to address it, most importantly by tackling entitlements.  Laffey is a Harvard Business graduate and has served as a financial executive and a university professor. When he was mayor of Cranston, the city experienced the fastest economic turn around for a city in American history. Laffey also ran for Congress, for Colorado House District 4 in 2014 and for U.S. Senate in Rhode Island in 2006.  Links in this episode:  Fixing America Steve Laffey on Substack  

Both political parties and candidates are already using artificial intelligence. Where is the technology at this stage, how is it being used and how might generative AI impact elections and politics?  Anthony Sowah and Jeff Berkowitz join us to answer these questions and help us go beyond the hype cycle to understand what AI is and what it might become.  Jeff Berkowitz is the founder and CEO of Washington's preeminent competitive intelligence and risk advisory firm, Delve. Berkowitz previously served as the Research Director of the Republican National Committee (RNC). He also served on staff or advised five major presidential campaigns and has shepherded research and messaging operations at The White House, the U.S. Department of State, and several prominent private sector and non-profit organizations Anthony Sowah is Vice President & Chief Technology Officer at The Hawthorne Group, a firm that specializes in strategic communications, issue advocacy and crisis management. Links in this episode:  Delve The Hawthorn Group American Association of Political Consultants (AAPC) Condemns Use of Deceptive Generative AI Content in Political Campaigns Cover art for this episode was generated by DALL-E.

Which states will have the most important elections downballot in 2024? David Nir and David Beard, co-hosts of The Downballot, join Kyle Kondik and Carah Ong Whaley to share their expert insights. They also discuss how Donald Trump continues to impact candidates down ballot and what new turnout data by demographics from the Census Current Population Survey tells us about the 2022 midterm elections and how should candidates and campaigns be thinking about their approaches to different constituencies looking ahead to 2024. David Nir is the Political Director at Daily Kos and publisher of Daily Kos elections, and David Beard is contributing editor at Daily Kos Elections.  Links in this episode:  The Downballot McConnell details GOP efforts to not ‘screw this up' in 2024 Senate battle, CNN CBS News/YouGov poll on how 2024 GOP presidential primary race could be Donald Trump v. Trump fatigue Turnout rates by key demographics on the U.S. Election Project

How have voting patterns in the Midwest & interior West trended relative to the national popular vote in presidential elections since 2000? Hint: we're seeing a lot of red. This week on the podcast we're discussing part two of J. Mile Coleman's' analysis on trends in two party voting in presidential elections since 2000. Part 1 covered the Northeast and South and you can go back and listen to that episode for more. Links in this episode:  Leaning Into State Trends: The Midwest and Interior West – Sabato's Crystal BallPart 1 Podcast

Across more than 230 years of American history, 26 presidents have run for re-election after a full term and only 10 have lost. A mere four have lost in the past century - Herbert Hoover in 1932, Jimmy Carter in 1980, George Bush in 1992 and Donald J. Trump in 2020. Based on recent history, a key question for Biden is whether a president can win reelection with an approval rating in the low-to-mid 40s.  Links in this episode:  Is Biden's Approval Rating Too Weak for Him to Win?