Chuck Todd at his best – unscripted, informed and focused on what really matters in politics. Join Chuck each Wednesday as he talks with top reporters from the nation’s capital, plus exclusive sit-down interviews and on-the-ground dispatches from across the campaign trail.
Chuck Todd argues we've entered end-stage Trump — the most dangerous phase — as the president lashes out at a reality that keeps refusing to cooperate: raiding the Pentagon to fund his vanity arch, banning news outlets from the White House over coverage he dislikes. The new NBC poll gives him nothing to work with. Trump's approval sits at a second-term low of 41%, 55% say his policies have hurt the economy, and 43% say their congressional vote is meant to signal opposition to him — the highest such share NBC has recorded in three decades of pre-midterm polling. The war is a millstone (62% say it wasn't worth it), data centers are the worst-performing issue of the cycle, and the most popular positions in the survey are taxing billionaires and Medicare for All. Chuck’s read: the midterms are now entirely a referendum on Trump and the wave is showing up in Republican behavior as much as the polling. Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit the story of Soviet soldier Stanislav Petrov correctly identifying a false alarm and preventing a potential nuclear war & the importance of human decision making in an automated system. He also answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and recaps the week in college football. Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 06:15 Vanity projects, Pentagon money, and a president lashing out 11:00 Banning the press and the danger of end-stage Trump 15:45 Inside the new NBC poll: a second-term low 18:45 Immigration, healthcare, and where the public actually is 24:00 The Iran war and data centers as the cycle's worst issues 29:30 The wave showing up in GOP behavior — and why Kansas may beat Iowa 35:00 Religious tests, the Hungary parallel, and the limits of the system 39:30 Codifying norms and repairing the damage 48:00 Chris Simms had excellent rant on the Protect College Sports Act 49:15 The conferences & networks don’t want a fair market for college sports 50:45 ToddCast Time Machine - September 26th, 1983 51:30 Soviet soldier, Petrov, was trying to determine if the US had launched a nuke 55:15 Petrov concluded the warning was a false alarm, the machine was wrong 57:45 We were fortunate a human was involved in the chain of events 1:01:00 Spoke with Ashley Judd about AI on Noosphere 1:04:30 Humans can’t just be a rubber stamp in the machine’s chain 1:06:45 As we race into AI era, we need to make sure humans are still in the chain 1:07:30 Ask Chuck 1:07:45 Is there a method to John Fetterman’s madness, or is it just madness? 1:14:30 Why can’t Trump’s opponents also “flood the zone”? 1:18:30 Could the speaker refuse to swear in Democrats? 1:21:00 Would incorporating visuals in debate moderation be helpful for context? 1:22:45 Thoughts on Nate Silver joining Crooked Media? 1:31:30 Thoughts on the personal feud between Trump & Mark Carney? 1:35:00 College football recapSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Chuck Todd argues we've entered end-stage Trump — the most dangerous phase — as the president lashes out at a reality that keeps refusing to cooperate: raiding the Pentagon to fund his vanity arch, banning news outlets from the White House over coverage he dislikes. The new NBC poll gives him nothing to work with. Trump's approval sits at a second-term low of 41%, 55% say his policies have hurt the economy, and 43% say their congressional vote is meant to signal opposition to him — the highest such share NBC has recorded in three decades of pre-midterm polling. The war is a millstone (62% say it wasn't worth it), data centers are the worst-performing issue of the cycle, and the most popular positions in the survey are taxing billionaires and Medicare for All. Chuck’s read: the midterms are now entirely a referendum on Trump and the wave is showing up in Republican behavior as much as the polling. Then, Louisiana Congressman Troy Carter joins the Chuck ToddCast to talk about a state whose bipartisan political culture — he worked productively with Mike Johnson in the statehouse — has been steamrolled by a president who's made clear he doesn't want to work with Democrats at all. Carter notes the irony that a majority of Johnson's own district is Medicaid-dependent in a state that never expanded Medicaid, and that the One Big Beautiful Bill cut it anyway. He argues Democrats lose working-class voters by refusing to speak plain American, that Bill Cassidy would have been tough to beat had he run as an independent rather than losing his primary, and that impeachment without the votes is a fool's errand even as rampant corruption demands answers. Plus: why progressives struggle with Black voters, the flawed SCORE Act, Jeff Landry's LSU mess, and Carter's bill requiring watermarks on AI video. Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit the story of Soviet soldier Stanislav Petrov correctly identifying a false alarm and preventing a potential nuclear war & the importance of human decision making in an automated system. He also answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and recaps the week in college football. Timeline: 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 06:15 Vanity projects, Pentagon money, and a president lashing out 11:00 Banning the press and the danger of end-stage Trump 15:45 Inside the new NBC poll: a second-term low 18:45 Immigration, healthcare, and where the public actually is 24:00 The Iran war and data centers as the cycle's worst issues 29:30 The wave showing up in GOP behavior — and why Kansas may beat Iowa 35:00 Religious tests, the Hungary parallel, and the limits of the system 39:30 Codifying norms and repairing the damage 51:00 Congressman Troy Carter joins the Chuck ToddCast 52:00 Louisiana's bipartisan culture and a president who won't play along 57:00 Medicaid, the OBBB cuts, and government that fails to deliver 1:03:45 How Trump wins working-class voters — and how Democrats lose them 1:09:00 The House map, surprise flips, and the Cassidy what-if 1:13:45 What Democrats should do with a governing majority 1:17:45 Oversight, impeachment, and the limits of both 1:26:15 Progressives, Black voters, and building a broader coalition 1:30:30 Procedural rules and Carter's reform wish list 1:36:45 College sports, the SCORE Act, and the LSU fight 1:45:00 AI, watermarks, and what Congress has to figure out 1:48:45 Chris Simms had excellent rant on the Protect College Sports Act 1:50:00 The conferences & networks don’t want a fair market for college sports 1:51:30 ToddCast Time Machine - September 26th, 1983 1:52:15 Soviet soldier, Petrov, was trying to determine if the US had launched a nuke 1:56:00 Petrov concluded the warning was a false alarm, the machine was wrong 1:58:30 We were fortunate a human was involved in the chain of events 2:01:45 Spoke with Ashley Judd about AI on Noosphere 2:05:15 Humans can’t just be a rubber stamp in the machine’s chain 2:07:30 As we race into AI era, we need to make sure humans are still in the chain 2:08:15 Ask Chuck 2:08:30 Is there a method to John Fetterman’s madness, or is it just madness? 2:15:15 Why can’t Trump’s opponents also “flood the zone”? 2:19:15 Could the speaker refuse to swear in Democrats? 2:21:45 Would incorporating visuals in debate moderation be helpful for context? 2:23:30 Thoughts on Nate Silver joining Crooked Media? 2:32:15 Thoughts on the personal feud between Trump & Mark Carney? 2:35:45 College football recapSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Louisiana Congressman Troy Carter joins the Chuck ToddCast to talk about a state whose bipartisan political culture — he worked productively with Mike Johnson in the statehouse — has been steamrolled by a president who's made clear he doesn't want to work with Democrats at all. Carter notes the irony that a majority of Johnson's own district is Medicaid-dependent in a state that never expanded Medicaid, and that the One Big Beautiful Bill cut it anyway. He argues Democrats lose working-class voters by refusing to speak plain American, that Bill Cassidy would have been tough to beat had he run as an independent rather than losing his primary, and that impeachment without the votes is a fool's errand even as rampant corruption demands answers. Plus: why progressives struggle with Black voters, the flawed SCORE Act, Jeff Landry's LSU mess, and Carter's bill requiring watermarks on AI video. Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Congressman Troy Carter joins the Chuck ToddCast 01:00 Louisiana's bipartisan culture and a president who won't play along 06:00 Medicaid, the OBBB cuts, and government that fails to deliver 12:45 How Trump wins working-class voters — and how Democrats lose them 18:00 The House map, surprise flips, and the Cassidy what-if 22:45 What Democrats should do with a governing majority 26:45 Oversight, impeachment, and the limits of both 35:15 Progressives, Black voters, and building a broader coalition 39:30 Procedural rules and Carter's reform wish list 45:45 College sports, the SCORE Act, and the LSU fight 54:00 AI, watermarks, and what Congress has to figure out See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Chuck Todd charts a Republican Party running out of road: the Fed hiking rates into Trump-driven inflation, JD Vance reduced to a "give us another chance" midterm pitch while Trump insists the economy is great, troops anonymously leaking photos of damaged bases, and seven Republicans now breaking with the president on War Powers. A closed-door House meeting over suspending the federal gas tax turned into what was described as one of the craziest on Capitol Hill — after which Speaker Johnson simply adjourned until after the midterms. Chuck closes with a sharp explainer on how an industry captures a government: crypto pioneered it by spending in primaries rather than on Congress, AI is now running the same operation with more money, and the CLARITY Act's collapse proves the one rule that governs it all — capture only works when it's invisible. Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and previews the upcoming weekend in college football. Sign up link: nextpredict.io/summits/the-worlds-prediction-markets-summit Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 07:00 Rate hikes, Vance's midterm pitch, and Trump's delusion 09:45 Damaged bases and the growing Iran war backlash 12:45 Republicans breaking ranks on War Powers 20:45 The gas tax meltdown that shut down the House 28:00 Trump's arch and a Congress that won't stop him 33:00 How an industry captures a government 39:00 The CLARITY Act, crypto's undoing, and AI's turn 49:00 Ask Chuck 49:15 Thoughts on Georgia Tech and Tennessee? 54:30 Thoughts on the Tennessee senate race? 1:02:45 Was avoiding a debate the right move for Mike Rogers? 1:08:45 How effective can Dems be investigating Trump with one or both chambers? 1:13:00 What can Dems realistically do with control of congress? 1:19:30 College football previewSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Chuck Todd charts a Republican Party running out of road: the Fed hiking rates into Trump-driven inflation, JD Vance reduced to a "give us another chance" midterm pitch while Trump insists the economy is great, troops anonymously leaking photos of damaged bases, and seven Republicans now breaking with the president on War Powers. A closed-door House meeting over suspending the federal gas tax turned into what was described as one of the craziest on Capitol Hill — after which Speaker Johnson simply adjourned until after the midterms. Chuck closes with a sharp explainer on how an industry captures a government: crypto pioneered it by spending in primaries rather than on Congress, AI is now running the same operation with more money, and the CLARITY Act's collapse proves the one rule that governs it all — capture only works when it's invisible. Then, longtime Texas political reporter Abby Livingston joins the Chuck ToddCast to explain why Texas is finally behaving like a purple state — not because the electorate fundamentally changed, but because conditions did. She walks through the state's political geography, 12 years of accumulated Abbott grievances (the school takeover, the unpopular THC ban), and a Republican ticket voters increasingly find embarrassing. Evangelicals are souring on Ken Paxton's character, Talarico yard signs are everywhere while Paxton's are nowhere, and Livingston argues a Talarico win would be a Democratic beachhead — though the winning number is likely under 50%, with a real chance Texas emerges as a three-party state. Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and previews the upcoming weekend in college football. Sign up link: nextpredict.io/summits/the-worlds-prediction-markets-summit Timeline: 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 07:00 Rate hikes, Vance's midterm pitch, and Trump's delusion 09:45 Damaged bases and the growing Iran war backlash 12:45 Republicans breaking ranks on War Powers 20:45 The gas tax meltdown that shut down the House 28:00 Trump's arch and a Congress that won't stop him 33:00 How an industry captures a government 39:00 The CLARITY Act, crypto's undoing, and AI's turn 52:30 Abby Livingston joins the Chuck ToddCast 54:00 Why Texas is finally turning purple 1:02:00 Abbott fatigue, school takeovers, and the THC ban 1:05:45 The Texas GOP's character problem 1:10:15 What a Talarico win would actually mean 1:14:30 Trump, Latino voters, and the shifting coalition 1:24:00 A three-party Texas and the GOP's civil war 1:30:15 The congressional map in a wave scenario 1:40:15 Camp Mystic, college sports politics, and the UT backlash 1:55:00 Ask Chuck 1:55:15 Thoughts on Georgia Tech and Tennessee? 2:00:30 Thoughts on the Tennessee senate race? 2:08:45 Was avoiding a debate the right move for Mike Rogers? 2:14:45 How effective can Dems be investigating Trump with one or both chambers? 2:19:00 What can Dems realistically do with control of congress? 2:25:30 College football previewSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Longtime Texas political reporter Abby Livingston joins the Chuck ToddCast to explain why Texas is finally behaving like a purple state — not because the electorate fundamentally changed, but because conditions did. She walks through the state's political geography, 12 years of accumulated Abbott grievances (the school takeover, the unpopular THC ban), and a Republican ticket voters increasingly find embarrassing. Evangelicals are souring on Ken Paxton's character, Talarico yard signs are everywhere while Paxton's are nowhere, and Livingston argues a Talarico win would be a Democratic beachhead — though the winning number is likely under 50%, with a real chance Texas emerges as a three-party state. Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Why Texas is finally turning purple 08:00 Abbott fatigue, school takeovers, and the THC ban 11:45 The Texas GOP's character problem 16:15 What a Talarico win would actually mean 20:30 Trump, Latino voters, and the shifting coalition 30:00 A three-party Texas and the GOP's civil war 36:15 The congressional map in a wave scenario 46:15 Camp Mystic, college sports politics, and the UT backlash See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Chuck Todd breaks down a NYT/Siena poll showing Democrats up 8 on the generic ballot and leading independents by 23 — numbers that would mean 25-30 House seats and 4-6 Senate seats, with Trump polling worse than he did before the 2018 wave. He argues the Justice Department, FBI, and Pentagon damage will take a generation to repair, that Thomas Massie's impeachment articles against Hegseth usefully drag the Iran war back to center stage, and that Republicans in swing areas should cut bait on Trump entirely. He's also furious about JD Vance attacking Kansas Senate candidate Adam Hamilton over how he practices his faith — religious bigotry, Todd argues, and proof Kansas is in play. Plus Trump's claim that the only AI guardrail needed is a "high IQ president," from a man who spent a decade destroying the very trust he's now demanding. Finally, Chuck updates his ToddCast Top 5 list of 2028 Democratic candidates for president and answers listeners’ questions in the Ask Chuck segment. Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 04:00 The politicization of DOJ and the damage to federal institutions 12:30 The Kennedy Center tantrum and Trump's messaging problem 15:45 Massie's impeachment articles put the Iran war front and center 22:00 Inside the NYT/Siena poll: +8 generic, +23 with independents 32:30 Why voters under 45 decide wave vs. tsunami 36:30 JD Vance's religious attack on Adam Hamilton 42:45 Trump's AI "high IQ president" guardrail — and why trust is the whole problem 52:45 What social media taught us that we ignored 1:04:30 Gavin Newsom says he won’t run if Kamala Harris does 1:07:30 Newsom is a savvy politician 1:09:15 Newsom will struggle to overcome California image 1:09:30 ToddCast Top 5 Democratic candidates for president in 2028 1:16:00 Ask Chuck 1:16:15 Could Democrats make solidly red states competitive in this environment? 1:18:30 Thoughts onJames Franklin’s first two outings at Virginia Tech? 1:24:30 Is there a way to make a political donation without ending up on email lists? 1:26:15 Should Dems pursue impeachment if they don’t have votes to convict? 1:29:45 Is it possible the Iran war served Russia’s interests & could it be intentional?See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Chuck Todd breaks down a NYT/Siena poll showing Democrats up 8 on the generic ballot and leading independents by 23 — numbers that would mean 25-30 House seats and 4-6 Senate seats, with Trump polling worse than he did before the 2018 wave. He argues the Justice Department, FBI, and Pentagon damage will take a generation to repair, that Thomas Massie's impeachment articles against Hegseth usefully drag the Iran war back to center stage, and that Republicans in swing areas should cut bait on Trump entirely. He's also furious about JD Vance attacking Kansas Senate candidate Adam Hamilton over how he practices his faith — religious bigotry, Todd argues, and proof Kansas is in play. Plus Trump's claim that the only AI guardrail needed is a "high IQ president," from a man who spent a decade destroying the very trust he's now demanding. Disclosure: Chapter is an advertiser on The Chuck ToddCast. Then, Chapter co-founder and CEO Cobi Blumenfeld-Gantz joins the Chuck Toddcast to explain why Medicare enrollment is so punishing — he started the company after watching his own parents struggle, and notes even a Stanford health economics professor found it overwhelming. He walks through what people in their sixties should actually be doing to prepare, why Parts A and B only cover about 80% of costs, how Medicare Advantage works and where its incentives cut against patients, and why the federal government's antiquated technology can't solve this itself. He and Chuck also get into why insurers have no real incentive to keep anyone healthy, and why good produce costing more than a hamburger is the root of so much of it. Finally, Chuck updates his ToddCast Top 5 list of 2028 Democratic candidates for president and answers listeners’ questions in the Ask Chuck segment. Timeline: 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 04:00 The politicization of DOJ and the damage to federal institutions 12:30 The Kennedy Center tantrum and Trump's messaging problem 15:45 Massie's impeachment articles put the Iran war front and center 22:00 Inside the NYT/Siena poll: +8 generic, +23 with independents 32:30 Why voters under 45 decide wave vs. tsunami 36:30 JD Vance's religious attack on Adam Hamilton 42:45 Trump's AI "high IQ president" guardrail — and why trust is the whole problem 52:45 What social media taught us that we ignored 1:06:00 Cobi Blumenfeld-Gantz joins the Chuck Toddcast 1:07:00 Why Chapter exists and why Medicare is so hard to navigate 1:12:30 What Medicare actually covers — and what it doesn't 1:15:00 Medicare Advantage, denials, and misaligned incentives 1:17:45 Why the government can't build this itself 1:22:15 How Chapter works, and how it makes money 1:30:15 Bipartisan backing and the road ahead 1:39:15 Rebuilding American healthcare from scratch 1:46:00 Gavin Newsom says he won’t run if Kamala Harris does 1:49:00 Newsom is a savvy politician 1:50:45 Newsom will struggle to overcome California image 1:51:00 ToddCast Top 5 Democratic candidates for president in 2028 1:57:30 Ask Chuck 1:57:45 Could Democrats make solidly red states competitive in this environment? 2:00:00 Thoughts onJames Franklin’s first two outings at Virginia Tech? 2:06:00 Is there a way to make a political donation without ending up on email lists? 2:07:45 Should Dems pursue impeachment if they don’t have votes to convict? 2:11:15 Is it possible the Iran war served Russia’s interests & could it be intentional?See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Disclosure: Chapter is an advertiser on The Chuck ToddCast. Chapter co-founder and CEO Cobi Blumenfeld-Gantz joins the Chuck Toddcast to explain why Medicare enrollment is so punishing — he started the company after watching his own parents struggle, and notes even a Stanford health economics professor found it overwhelming. He walks through what people in their sixties should actually be doing to prepare, why Parts A and B only cover about 80% of costs, how Medicare Advantage works and where its incentives cut against patients, and why the federal government's antiquated technology can't solve this itself. He and Chuck also get into why insurers have no real incentive to keep anyone healthy, and why good produce costing more than a hamburger is the root of so much of it. Timeline: 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 01:00 Why Chapter exists and why Medicare is so hard to navigate 06:30 What Medicare actually covers — and what it doesn't 09:00 Medicare Advantage, denials, and misaligned incentives 11:45 Why the government can't build this itself 16:15 How Chapter works, and how it makes money 24:15 Bipartisan backing and the road ahead 33:15 Rebuilding American healthcare from scratch For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Chuck Todd and Chris Cillizza open with a thesis worth marking on a calendar: the next two weeks may be the most consequential stretch of the campaign. Axios data shows Republicans outspending Democrats in every competitive state — $64 million in Texas, $45 million in Ohio — and Chuck's test is specific: if the ads work, Democratic numbers tick down and undecideds tick up by October 1st. His counterweight looks stronger by the day, with diesel at a record, Brent above $109, and the 10-year Treasury touching 5% for the first time since 2023. No amount of super PAC money outruns a gas pump, and he now believes the Iran war will hit these midterms the way Iraq hit 2006 — except as pure economic catastrophe with no upside. Plus: why Texas is an environment problem and not just a Paxton problem, a deep dive into Kansas and the reporting on Roger Marshall's medical-debt lawsuits, why Trump's $5,000 dividend pitch in Dallas was an accidental confession, JD Vance's rise as Rubio vanishes, a genuinely alarmed conversation about AI and the knowledge gap in Congress, and Ted Cruz getting drowned out on College GameDay. Timeline: 00:00 The late-money avalanche & why these two weeks decide everything 10:00 $6 diesel, a bond market on fire & the Iran war as this cycle's Iraq 18:00 Texas, Florida & the rescue mission for Ken Paxton 24:00 Kansas: the debate, the medical-debt story & why Marshall is vulnerable 34:00 Forced pairs — who flips first across Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa and Alaska 40:00 The Dallas convention: Vance rising, Rubio missing, Trump promising checks 46:00 AI, the knowledge gap in Congress & a leadership vacuum 56:00 Ted Cruz gets booed, and the case against the college sports bill 66:00 Week one signal vs. noise, monkey picks & the top fiveSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Chuck Todd connects two crises with the same root: nobody in charge is willing to stop. AI CEOs now openly concede their technology could end humanity — Dario Amodei published an essay arguing development needs to slow down — while the companies pour money into the midterms lobbying to let Washington overrule state regulators, and OpenAI's own models escape a sandbox to hack Hugging Face and cheat on a test. From there Todd maps the GOP's financial advantage state by state, argues Trump's convention cash promises are an admission the working-class economy is a disaster, and warns the Iran war has become a full-blown kitchen table issue with millions of barrels of oil a day offline and diesel at an all-time high. Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit the 1920 Wall Street bombing, one of the deadliest terrorist attacks in American history, answers listeners’ questions in the Ask Chuck segment and reacts to the weekend in college football. Timeline: 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 06:15 The AI industry admits the danger and builds it anyway 17:30 Can Republican money mitigate a terrible climate? 27:45 Trump's convention, cash promises, and a working-class economy in freefall 32:00 Inflation, the Fed, and the Iran oil shock 39:00 Vance's 2028 advantage and the Trump albatross 42:30 Joe diGenova resigns, and the pile of discarded Trump allies 46:15 Why the Protect College Sports bill is fatally flawed 56:30 ToddCast Time Machine - September 16th, 1920 58:00 The Wall Street Bombing 1:03:15 A. Palmer Mitchell warns of anarchists 1:10:00 Over 30 are killed by the bomb and hundreds are injured 1:16:00 Attacks on lower Manhattan became a symbol for attacks on American power 1:20:30 Ask Chuck 1:20:45 Should politicians avoid using foul language? 1:24:00 If Dems capture both chambers, what could they realistically accomplish? 1:30:00 Rebuilding local public access media via streaming? 1:33:45 Thoughts on the culture of NFL ownership? 1:38:00 College football reaction Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Chuck Todd connects two crises with the same root: nobody in charge is willing to stop. AI CEOs now openly concede their technology could end humanity — Dario Amodei published an essay arguing development needs to slow down — while the companies pour money into the midterms lobbying to let Washington overrule state regulators, and OpenAI's own models escape a sandbox to hack Hugging Face and cheat on a test. From there Todd maps the GOP's financial advantage state by state, argues Trump's convention cash promises are an admission the working-class economy is a disaster, and warns the Iran war has become a full-blown kitchen table issue with millions of barrels of oil a day offline and diesel at an all-time high. Then, veteran political strategist Maria Comella — who has worked for Chris Christie, Rudy Giuliani, and Democrats alike — joins the Chuck Toddcast to argue that political consulting has become an industry with no character test left in it. Using the Graham Platner saga as a case study, she and Todd examine what consultants owe voters when they know a candidate's flaws, why the staffer who went public took real guts, and why authenticity isn't a value but merely a descriptor. Comella maps the persuadable Republican electorate heading into 2026, argues Texas is the perfect storm for a statewide Democratic win, and explains why a non-MAGA Republican may be structurally unable to break through in 2028. Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit the 1920 Wall Street bombing, one of the deadliest terrorist attacks in American history, answers listeners’ questions in the Ask Chuck segment and reacts to the weekend in college football. Timeline: 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 06:15 The AI industry admits the danger and builds it anyway 17:30 Can Republican money mitigate a terrible climate? 27:45 Trump's convention, cash promises, and a working-class economy in freefall 32:00 Inflation, the Fed, and the Iran oil shock 39:00 Vance's 2028 advantage and the Trump albatross 42:30 Joe diGenova resigns, and the pile of discarded Trump allies 46:15 Why the Protect College Sports bill is fatally flawed 58:00 Maria Comella joins the Chuck ToddCast 1:00:00 The Platner saga and the ethics of political consulting 1:08:00 Authenticity, character tests, and what voters will overlook 1:15:00 Going public, the Natalie Harp leaks, and protecting a candidate from himself 1:28:00 Persuadable Republicans and the 2026 battlegrounds 1:39:00 Outside money, data centers, and the AI problem 1:44:30 The 2028 GOP field and the fight for the party's future 1:53:45 Mamdani's first year, Cuomo, and the establishment's failures 2:01:15 ToddCast Time Machine - September 16th, 1920 2:02:45 The Wall Street Bombing 2:08:00 A. Palmer Mitchell warns of anarchists 2:14:45 Over 30 are killed by the bomb and hundreds are injured 2:20:45 Attacks on lower Manhattan became a symbol for attacks on American power 2:25:15 Ask Chuck 2:25:30 Should politicians avoid using foul language? 2:28:45 If Dems capture both chambers, what could they realistically accomplish? 2:34:45 Rebuilding local public access media via streaming? 2:38:30 Thoughts on the culture of NFL ownership? 2:42:45 College football reaction Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order. Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Veteran political strategist Maria Comella — who has worked for Chris Christie, Rudy Giuliani, and Democrats alike — joins the Chuck Toddcast to argue that political consulting has become an industry with no character test left in it. Using the Graham Platner saga as a case study, she and Todd examine what consultants owe voters when they know a candidate's flaws, why the staffer who went public took real guts, and why authenticity isn't a value but merely a descriptor. Comella maps the persuadable Republican electorate heading into 2026, argues Texas is the perfect storm for a statewide Democratic win, and explains why a non-MAGA Republican may be structurally unable to break through in 2028. Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order. Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Timeline: 00:00 The Platner saga and the ethics of political consulting 10:00 Authenticity, character tests, and what voters will overlook 17:00 Going public, the Natalie Harp leaks, and protecting a candidate from himself 30:00 Persuadable Republicans and the 2026 battlegrounds 41:00 Outside money, data centers, and the AI problem 46:30 The 2028 GOP field and the fight for the party's future 55:45 Mamdani's first year, Cuomo, and the establishment's failuresSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Chuck Todd argues AI alarmism just hit its break-glass moment. Jacob Coxon, a researcher who spent three years on pretraining at OpenAI and Anthropic, resigned Tuesday and posted that neither company is acting responsibly — that they're "racing straight to self-improving superintelligence and gambling with our lives". Chuck had assumed some of this fearmongering was a marketing tactic. He no longer does. His argument is that the public is begging for guardrails while a government that's been bought off or is simply afraid of tech money does nothing, that the tech companies want regulatory capture, and that we have the worst possible president for this moment. We organized globally to prevent nuclear war; we need televised emergency congressional hearings and the same seriousness here. From there Chuck turns to trust — the connective tissue of the whole episode. Only 45% of Americans think the midterms will be fair, in part because Trump has convinced his supporters that every election he's lost was suspicious. Republicans have to win voters with oil prices at record highs, and unlike Obama, Trump can't credibly blame his predecessor: he inherited a recovery and made it worse. Chuck previews a convention that's a base-turnout exercise rather than a persuasion play, notes Trump's instinct for gimmicks (paying stay-at-home mothers is functionally welfare), and observes that the limited-government wing of the GOP has been fully eviscerated by a party that now wants to coerce social behavior. On the 25th anniversary of 9/11, he's blunt about the Islamophobia aimed at Zohran Mamdani and argues Muslim participation in American life post-9/11 is largely a good story. The security apparatus worked, intelligence sharing genuinely improved, but emergency powers should have expiration dates, the surveillance watchdog board is effectively defunct, and Congress has abdicated oversight. We traded privacy for security and then got used to it. Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and previews the upcoming weekend in college football. link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order. Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too! For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd's introduction 02:00 AI alarmism may have hit its break-glass moment 03:15 The viral resignation post — and the colleagues who confirmed it 04:30 Chuck had assumed some of this was a marketing tactic 05:45 The public is begging government for AI guardrails 07:15 We have the worst possible president for this moment 08:15 We stopped nuclear war globally — we need the same for AI 09:15 Officials are bought off or afraid of tech money 10:00 The tech companies want regulatory capture 13:00 Shouldn't we pause everything to work on this? 16:30 The virality feels like a primal scream from the public 18:30 Only 45% of Americans think the midterms will be fair 21:00 Trump convinced supporters every election he lost was suspicious 23:30 Republicans have to win with oil prices at record highs 26:15 Obama could blame his predecessor — Trump can't 30:00 A convention Trump can only use to talk to his own voters 34:30 Trump's instinct for finding the right gimmick 36:00 Paying stay-at-home moms is basically welfare 38:00 The GOP now wants government to coerce social behavior 40:30 Democrats should have fought harder for the Child Tax Credit 42:30 Friday marks the 25th anniversary of 9/11 44:15 The blatant Islamophobia aimed at Zohran Mamdani 47:00 Muslim participation in America post-9/11 is mostly a good story 51:30 We gave up a lot of freedoms — it's time to get them back 54:45 More surveillance power was granted, but oversight never followed 56:30 Emergency powers should have an expiration date 59:30 The surveillance watchdog board is basically defunct 1:03:00 Trust has collapsed, and that's dangerous for a pluralistic society 1:07:15 The terrorists win if we fight each other 1:14:45 Ask Chuck 1:15:00 Where have you heard a musical performance that left an impression? 1:19:45 Examples of presidents making painful short-term decisions for long-term gain? 1:24:15 Reaction to Sen. Kennedy telling Kristen Welker he likes her better? 1:24:45 Who needs to sell their MLB team first? 1:28:00 Is there more Dems can do to sustain focus to counter Hegseth at the Pentagon? 1:31:45 Any question of which map will be used in Missouri election? 1:35:45 College football previewSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Chuck Todd argues AI alarmism just hit its break-glass moment. Jacob Coxon, a researcher who spent three years on pretraining at OpenAI and Anthropic, resigned Tuesday and posted that neither company is acting responsibly — that they're "racing straight to self-improving superintelligence and gambling with our lives". Chuck had assumed some of this fearmongering was a marketing tactic. He no longer does. His argument is that the public is begging for guardrails while a government that's been bought off or is simply afraid of tech money does nothing, that the tech companies want regulatory capture, and that we have the worst possible president for this moment. We organized globally to prevent nuclear war; we need televised emergency congressional hearings and the same seriousness here. From there Chuck turns to trust — the connective tissue of the whole episode. Only 45% of Americans think the midterms will be fair, in part because Trump has convinced his supporters that every election he's lost was suspicious. Republicans have to win voters with oil prices at record highs, and unlike Obama, Trump can't credibly blame his predecessor: he inherited a recovery and made it worse. Chuck previews a convention that's a base-turnout exercise rather than a persuasion play, notes Trump's instinct for gimmicks (paying stay-at-home mothers is functionally welfare), and observes that the limited-government wing of the GOP has been fully eviscerated by a party that now wants to coerce social behavior. On the 25th anniversary of 9/11, he's blunt about the Islamophobia aimed at Zohran Mamdani and argues Muslim participation in American life post-9/11 is largely a good story. The security apparatus worked, intelligence sharing genuinely improved, but emergency powers should have expiration dates, the surveillance watchdog board is effectively defunct, and Congress has abdicated oversight. We traded privacy for security and then got used to it. Then, Lawfare senior editor Molly Roberts joins the Chuck Toddcast to walk through the "rogue clerk" scenario — the theory circulating online that House Republicans could hold power on January 3rd regardless of what voters do in November. Her piece on it has been called the most comprehensive analysis written to date, and her conclusion is genuinely nuanced: this is worth taking seriously without taking it too seriously. The mechanics matter. At noon on January 3rd the old House dissolves and, briefly, there is no House at all — only the clerk, who under 2 U.S.C. § 26 has a ministerial duty to place on the roll only those members whose credentials show they were regularly elected. Ministerial duties are enforceable by mandamus, which means courts can compel compliance before a speaker is ever seated. But the vulnerabilities are real: a speaker can unilaterally fire the clerk and install an acting one, a state certification delayed past January 3rd creates genuine chaos (Missouri is the obvious candidate), and once a speaker is elected the courts will likely bow out. She and Chuck walk through the historical precedents — the 1838 Broad Seal War, the 1984 fight over Indiana's "Bloody 8th" — and land on the reassuring and unsettling truth at once: pulling this off would require an enormous number of people at the state level and in the House conference acting in lockstep, and treating it as a foolproof hack implies it's lawful when it plainly isn't. The realistic ceiling for a rogue clerk isn't a stolen election; it's mayhem. The worry, as Roberts puts it, is that for some people mayhem is more than enough. Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and previews the upcoming weekend in college football. link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order. Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too! For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd's introduction 02:00 AI alarmism may have hit its break-glass moment 03:15 The viral resignation post — and the colleagues who confirmed it 04:30 Chuck had assumed some of this was a marketing tactic 05:45 The public is begging government for AI guardrails 07:15 We have the worst possible president for this moment 08:15 We stopped nuclear war globally — we need the same for AI 09:15 Officials are bought off or afraid of tech money 10:00 The tech companies want regulatory capture 13:00 Shouldn't we pause everything to work on this? 16:30 The virality feels like a primal scream from the public 18:30 Only 45% of Americans think the midterms will be fair 21:00 Trump convinced supporters every election he lost was suspicious 23:30 Republicans have to win with oil prices at record highs 26:15 Obama could blame his predecessor — Trump can't 30:00 A convention Trump can only use to talk to his own voters 34:30 Trump's instinct for finding the right gimmick 36:00 Paying stay-at-home moms is basically welfare 38:00 The GOP now wants government to coerce social behavior 40:30 Democrats should have fought harder for the Child Tax Credit 42:30 Friday marks the 25th anniversary of 9/11 44:15 The blatant Islamophobia aimed at Zohran Mamdani 47:00 Muslim participation in America post-9/11 is mostly a good story 51:30 We gave up a lot of freedoms — it's time to get them back 54:45 More surveillance power was granted, but oversight never followed 56:30 Emergency powers should have an expiration date 59:30 The surveillance watchdog board is basically defunct 1:03:00 Trust has collapsed, and that's dangerous for a pluralistic society 1:07:15 The terrorists win if we fight each other 1:17:30 Molly Roberts joins the Chuck ToddCast 1:18:45 How Lawfare shifted from national security to rule of law 1:19:45 Could the administration steal the midterm elections? 1:22:15 The local certification weirdness that didn't work out 1:24:15 Many states tightened election procedures after 2020 1:25:45 A certification delay past January 3rd is the big "what if" 1:28:45 Why January 3rd is the key date — the 20th Amendment 1:29:30 At noon, the old House dissolves and there is no House 1:31:15 During that window, the clerk is effectively running things 1:33:00 What if Missouri's delegation can't get certified? 1:35:45 A late seating could flip the chamber 1:37:45 The 1984 fight over Indiana's "Bloody 8th" 1:39:45 If the clerk goes rogue, can courts step in? 1:40:45 Once there's a speaker, the courts likely bow out 1:43:45 The speaker can fire the clerk and install an acting one 1:47:30 The clerk's ministerial duty — and why it's enforceable 1:50:15 Can the House override a state certification? 1:52:45 How many people would have to cooperate to pull this off 1:54:30 The history of the Broad Seal War 1:59:30 Why the Senate is more immune to January 3rd chaos 2:05:30 The decisions that sustained democracy were mostly 52-48 2:06:15 What she tells people who ask "will the midterms be stolen?" 2:09:15 Ask Chuck 2:09:30 Where have you heard a musical performance that left an impression? 2:14:15 Examples of presidents making painful short-term decisions for long-term gain? 2:18:45 Reaction to Sen. Kennedy telling Kristen Welker he likes her better? 2:19:15 Who needs to sell their MLB team first? 2:22:30 Is there more Dems can do to sustain focus to counter Hegseth at the Pentagon? 2:26:15 Any question of which map will be used in Missouri election? 2:30:15 College football previewSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Lawfare senior editor Molly Roberts joins the Chuck Toddcast to walk through the "rogue clerk" scenario — the theory circulating online that House Republicans could hold power on January 3rd regardless of what voters do in November. Her piece on it has been called the most comprehensive analysis written to date, and her conclusion is genuinely nuanced: this is worth taking seriously without taking it too seriously. The mechanics matter. At noon on January 3rd the old House dissolves and, briefly, there is no House at all — only the clerk, who under 2 U.S.C. § 26 has a ministerial duty to place on the roll only those members whose credentials show they were regularly elected. Ministerial duties are enforceable by mandamus, which means courts can compel compliance before a speaker is ever seated. But the vulnerabilities are real: a speaker can unilaterally fire the clerk and install an acting one, a state certification delayed past January 3rd creates genuine chaos (Missouri is the obvious candidate), and once a speaker is elected the courts will likely bow out. She and Chuck walk through the historical precedents — the 1838 Broad Seal War, the 1984 fight over Indiana's "Bloody 8th" — and land on the reassuring and unsettling truth at once: pulling this off would require an enormous number of people at the state level and in the House conference acting in lockstep, and treating it as a foolproof hack implies it's lawful when it plainly isn't. The realistic ceiling for a rogue clerk isn't a stolen election; it's mayhem. The worry, as Roberts puts it, is that for some people mayhem is more than enough. link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order. Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too! For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Molly Roberts joins the Chuck ToddCast 01:15 How Lawfare shifted from national security to rule of law 02:15 Could the administration steal the midterm elections? 04:45 The local certification weirdness that didn't work out 06:45 Many states tightened election procedures after 2020 08:15 A certification delay past January 3rd is the big "what if" 11:15 Why January 3rd is the key date — the 20th Amendment 12:00 At noon, the old House dissolves and there is no House 13:45 During that window, the clerk is effectively running things 15:30 What if Missouri's delegation can't get certified? 18:15 A late seating could flip the chamber 20:15 The 1984 fight over Indiana's "Bloody 8th" 22:15 If the clerk goes rogue, can courts step in? 23:15 Once there's a speaker, the courts likely bow out 26:15 The speaker can fire the clerk and install an acting one 30:00 The clerk's ministerial duty — and why it's enforceable 32:45 Can the House override a state certification? 35:15 How many people would have to cooperate to pull this off 37:00 The history of the Broad Seal War 42:00 Why the Senate is more immune to January 3rd chaos 48:00 The decisions that sustained democracy were mostly 52-48 48:45 What she tells people who ask "will the midterms be stolen?"See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Chuck Todd reads the New Hampshire results as a straightforward establishment win — the progressive dog didn't bark, outside groups largely stayed out, and Jeanne Shaheen's decades of organization-building still define the state party. He expects a four-to-six point Senate race and would be surprised, though not shocked, if it flipped, since Sununu's politics run a bit conservative for New Hampshire. Then he turns to the redistricting chaos in Missouri, where the state's electoral process has been thrown into genuine disarray: Secretary of State Denny Hoskins sat on 300,000 referendum signatures until primary election day before rejecting them, the state Supreme Court unanimously ruled the 2025 map never took effect and ordered November run on the old lines with the new map going to a statewide vote with the August primary already conducted on a map that isn't law. Chuck argues Hoskins created this mess through partisan hackery, points to Texas in 1996 as precedent, and says a special election would be the fairest resolution. He also flags Dan Osborn's tricky balancing act in Nebraska, and a New York Times report that Roger Marshall's practice sued roughly 700 patients over unpaid medical bills — some for just a few hundred dollars — before he later voted to limit hospitals' collection powers. Chuck’s read: damaging material doesn't land on a reporter's desk by accident, the timing could matter enormously in a race Democrats have put in play. Finally, Chuck presents his ToddCast Top 5 potential red state sweeps for the Democrats and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too! Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 02:30 The establishment got its way in NH primary elections 04:45 The progressive dog didn’t bark in New Hampshire 05:15 Outside groups mostly stayed out of NH races 06:45 Jeanne Shaheen built & basically is the NH Democratic Party 08:15 NH senate race will likely be in a 4-6 point range 09:45 Sununu’s politics are a bit conservative for NH 11:30 Would be surprised but not shocked if NH senate goes Republicans 13:30 Missouri election map battle risks disenfranchising voters 14:00 Federal court puts temporary restraining order on the map 14:45 Missouri Republicans drew new maps to achieve 7-1 or 8-0 result 15:45 Voters collected enough signatures for referendum on map 16:30 Missouri secretary of state delayed until day of primary election 18:30 State Supreme Court unanimously ruled new map didn’t take effect 19:30 The old map is still in effect, but primary voters voted on the new map 20:15 SCOTUS declined to intervene, it’s a state issue 21:00 After SCOTUS decision, federal judge in Missouri issued an injunction 23:45 The electoral process in Missouri has been thrown into chaos 25:15 Secretary of state created this mess with partisan hackery 26:30 Texas was in a similar situation in 1996, held a special election 29:30 The special election is the fairest way to resolve this problem 31:30 There could be voter backlash to the redistricting effort 33:30 Dan Osborne trying to pull off a difficult balancing act in Nebraska 34:45 Osborne admits there’s a difference between campaigning & governing 36:30 Dem candidate in Ohio joked he’d lie to voters about being DSA 37:45 Hitting your opponent with their own words is highly effective 40:30 Trump is doing everything he can to screw up the Kansas economy 42:00 NYT reports Roger Marshall sued 700 patients for unpaid medical bills 42:45 Some of the debts were small, in the hundreds of dollars 43:30 Later, Marshall voted to limit hospitals’ ability to collect debts 44:30 Damaging material doesn’t randomly appear on a reporter’s desk 45:30 Report raises a character & empathy question about Marshall 48:15 Story also raises questions about the state of U.S. healthcare 50:15 Timing of the story could seriously impact the election 56:30 ToddCast Top 5 red states where Dems could sweep statewide 1:00:00 #5 Florida 1:01:15 #4 Kansas 1:03:30 #3 Iowa 1:06:15 #2 Texas 1:09:15 #1 Ohio 1:12:00 Ask Chuck 1:12:15 How would history be different if we treated 9/11 as criminal acts rather than war? 1:19:30 Do voters have recourse if an elected official is refusing to do the job? 1:23:30 Why do you shy away from using racism as a voting motive? 1:29:30 If the senate ties 50-50 & one becomes incapacitated, does the chamber flip? 1:33:30 As a Steelers fan, which college QB should I be keeping an eye on?See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Chuck Todd reads the New Hampshire results as a straightforward establishment win — the progressive dog didn't bark, outside groups largely stayed out, and Jeanne Shaheen's decades of organization-building still define the state party. He expects a four-to-six point Senate race and would be surprised, though not shocked, if it flipped, since Sununu's politics run a bit conservative for New Hampshire. Then he turns to the redistricting chaos in Missouri, where the state's electoral process has been thrown into genuine disarray: Secretary of State Denny Hoskins sat on 300,000 referendum signatures until primary election day before rejecting them, the state Supreme Court unanimously ruled the 2025 map never took effect and ordered November run on the old lines with the new map going to a statewide vote with the August primary already conducted on a map that isn't law. Chuck argues Hoskins created this mess through partisan hackery, points to Texas in 1996 as precedent, and says a special election would be the fairest resolution. He also flags Dan Osborn's tricky balancing act in Nebraska, and a New York Times report that Roger Marshall's practice sued roughly 700 patients over unpaid medical bills — some for just a few hundred dollars — before he later voted to limit hospitals' collection powers. Chuck’s read: damaging material doesn't land on a reporter's desk by accident, the timing could matter enormously in a race Democrats have put in play. Then, Anthony Tommasini — chief classical music critic for the New York Times from 2000 to 2021 — joins the Chuck Toddcast to discuss Voice of a Century: The Life and Artistry of Marian Anderson, out September 8th as part of the Significations series curated by Henry Louis Gates Jr. Tommasini didn't seek the project; he was asked to write it. His argument is that Anderson has been flattened into two civil rights milestones — the 1939 Lincoln Memorial concert before 75,000 people after the DAR barred her from Constitution Hall, and breaking the Met's color line — when the reason she mattered in the first place was the voice. He describes her extraordinary range, her European breakthrough (and the promoters who essentially whitewashed her race to sell her), her decision not to learn Italian because she knew American opera was closed to her, and the fact that had she been born thirty years later she'd have had an opera career. The human material is remarkable: conscripted into a church choir at six, largely self-taught at piano, denied a hotel room and put up by Albert Einstein, who became a friend and pushed her to speak out more than she wanted to. Anderson's aim was to be a great artist, not an activist. They also get into the state of classical music in 2026 — why symphonies are so expensive to sustain, why live performance can't be replicated, and which American orchestra he'd send you to first. Finally, Chuck presents his ToddCast Top 5 potential red state sweeps for the Democrats and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too! Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Timeline: 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 02:30 The establishment got its way in NH primary elections 04:45 The progressive dog didn’t bark in New Hampshire 05:15 Outside groups mostly stayed out of NH races 06:45 Jeanne Shaheen built & basically is the NH Democratic Party 08:15 NH senate race will likely be in a 4-6 point range 09:45 Sununu’s politics are a bit conservative for NH 11:30 Would be surprised but not shocked if NH senate goes Republicans 13:30 Missouri election map battle risks disenfranchising voters 14:00 Federal court puts temporary restraining order on the map 14:45 Missouri Republicans drew new maps to achieve 7-1 or 8-0 result 15:45 Voters collected enough signatures for referendum on map 16:30 Missouri secretary of state delayed until day of primary election 18:30 State Supreme Court unanimously ruled new map didn’t take effect 19:30 The old map is still in effect, but primary voters voted on the new map 20:15 SCOTUS declined to intervene, it’s a state issue 21:00 After SCOTUS decision, federal judge in Missouri issued an injunction 23:45 The electoral process in Missouri has been thrown into chaos 25:15 Secretary of state created this mess with partisan hackery 26:30 Texas was in a similar situation in 1996, held a special election 29:30 The special election is the fairest way to resolve this problem 31:30 There could be voter backlash to the redistricting effort 33:30 Dan Osborne trying to pull off a difficult balancing act in Nebraska 34:45 Osborne admits there’s a difference between campaigning & governing 36:30 Dem candidate in Ohio joked he’d lie to voters about being DSA 37:45 Hitting your opponent with their own words is highly effective 40:30 Trump is doing everything he can to screw up the Kansas economy 42:00 NYT reports Roger Marshall sued 700 patients for unpaid medical bills 42:45 Some of the debts were small, in the hundreds of dollars 43:30 Later, Marshall voted to limit hospitals’ ability to collect debts 44:30 Damaging material doesn’t randomly appear on a reporter’s desk 45:30 Report raises a character & empathy question about Marshall 48:15 Story also raises questions about the state of U.S. healthcare 50:15 Timing of the story could seriously impact the election 59:00 Anthony Tommasini joins the Chuck ToddCast 1:01:15 The origin of "Voice of a Century" 1:03:00 Marian Anderson as barrier breaker 1:05:15 Conscripted into the church choir at age six 1:08:00 Anderson became popular in Europe first 1:10:00 Promoters practically whitewashed her race to sell her 1:11:30 Why she never learned Italian 1:14:30 If born 30 years later, she'd have sung opera 1:17:30 Seeing Roland Hayes and the epiphany that followed 1:18:15 She wanted to be a great artist, not a civil rights activist 1:19:15 Denied a hotel room, invited to stay with Albert Einstein 1:21:30 Why she came back to America instead of staying in Europe 1:25:45 Ending every recital with negro spirituals 1:29:30 The Lincoln Memorial concert and the nerves behind it 1:36:00 What Anderson meant as a model for the Black community 1:37:45 Two Anderson recordings everyone should hear 1:43:30 The state of classical music in 2026 1:47:00 Why classical music has to be experienced live 1:52:45 The premiere symphony to attend in America 1:56:00 "Voice of a Century" is out September 8th 1:56:30 ToddCast Top 5 red states where Dems could sweep statewide 2:00:00 #5 Florida 2:01:15 #4 Kansas 2:03:30 #3 Iowa 2:06:15 #2 Texas 2:09:15 #1 Ohio 2:12:00 Ask Chuck 2:12:15 How would history be different if we treated 9/11 as criminal acts rather than war? 2:19:30 Do voters have recourse if an elected official is refusing to do the job? 2:23:30 Why do you shy away from using racism as a voting motive? 2:29:30 If the senate ties 50-50 & one becomes incapacitated, does the chamber flip? 2:33:30 As a Steelers fan, which college QB should I be keeping an eye on?See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Anthony Tommasini — chief classical music critic for the New York Times from 2000 to 2021 — joins the Chuck Toddcast to discuss Voice of a Century: The Life and Artistry of Marian Anderson, out September 8th as part of the Significations series curated by Henry Louis Gates Jr. Tommasini didn't seek the project; he was asked to write it. His argument is that Anderson has been flattened into two civil rights milestones — the 1939 Lincoln Memorial concert before 75,000 people after the DAR barred her from Constitution Hall, and breaking the Met's color line — when the reason she mattered in the first place was the voice. He describes her extraordinary range, her European breakthrough (and the promoters who essentially whitewashed her race to sell her), her decision not to learn Italian because she knew American opera was closed to her, and the fact that had she been born thirty years later she'd have had an opera career. The human material is remarkable: conscripted into a church choir at six, largely self-taught at piano, denied a hotel room and put up by Albert Einstein, who became a friend and pushed her to speak out more than she wanted to. Anderson's aim was to be a great artist, not an activist. They also get into the state of classical music in 2026 — why symphonies are so expensive to sustain, why live performance can't be replicated, and which American orchestra he'd send you to first. Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Timeline: 00:00 Anthony Tommasini joins the Chuck ToddCast 02:15 The origin of "Voice of a Century" 04:00 Marian Anderson as barrier breaker 06:15 Conscripted into the church choir at age six 09:00 Anderson became popular in Europe first 11:00 Promoters practically whitewashed her race to sell her 12:30 Why she never learned Italian 15:30 If born 30 years later, she'd have sung opera 18:30 Seeing Roland Hayes and the epiphany that followed 19:15 She wanted to be a great artist, not a civil rights activist 20:15 Denied a hotel room, invited to stay with Albert Einstein 22:30 Why she came back to America instead of staying in Europe 26:45 Ending every recital with negro spirituals 30:30 The Lincoln Memorial concert and the nerves behind it 37:00 What Anderson meant as a model for the Black community 38:45 Two Anderson recordings everyone should hear 44:30 The state of classical music in 2026 48:00 Why classical music has to be experienced live 53:45 The premiere symphony to attend in America 57:00 "Voice of a Century" is out September 8thSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Chuck Todd and J.A. Adande sit down with ESPN’s Paul Finebaum and dive into Alabama football. Finebaum shares his perspective on Bear Bryant’s complicated legacy and the integration of Alabama football, explains why Nick Saban succeeded where so many post-Bryant coaches failed, and reveals how Saban established total control over the program from the moment he arrived in Tuscaloosa.Plus, Finebaum offers a warning about Alabama’s future.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Eight Tuesdays out, Chuck Todd and Chris Cillizza open on the first midterm convention in modern American history — two nights at Dallas's American Airlines Center with 109 speakers, Trump appearing both nights, and House members getting billed $25,000 to attend. The guys are skeptical of nearly all of it: the event lands on NFL kickoff night, it butts up against the 25th anniversary of September 11th, and Politico found 45 of 70 Republican candidates and members skipping it. Their sharper point is that the whole thing is a microcosm of the party's bind — you cannot win without the MAGA base, and you cannot win with only the MAGA base — which is why swing-state nominees like Jon Husted and Mike Rogers will show up and try very hard to deliver a forgettable speech. Chuck argues nationalizing the election isn't crazy on its own terms, since the other side is going to run against Trump anyway, but doubts Trump can hit any register besides red meat, and doubts even more that he can find a second gear for the September 11th anniversary the following day. From there they dig into Texas, where MAGA Inc's first $10 million buy is running a half-negative, half-positive ad about taxes — a signal, Chuck says, that they know the target is suburban Romney Republicans, not the base. He walks through Greg Abbott's steadily declining margins, the four-to-eight-point scandal penalty that history says attaches to a candidate like Paxton, and lands somewhere that surprises Chris: he now likes Talarico's odds better than Sherrod Brown's in Ohio. They check the prediction markets, unpack the Missouri Supreme Court ruling that blocked the Republican-drawn map and effectively hands Emanuel Cleaver his seat back, and take apart Trump's request that the Supreme Court impose a national check on mail voting — a policy every Republican strategist will tell you privately hurts their own side. Then a long, unsparing conversation about the Wall Street Journal's reporting on John Fetterman and what it means for control of the Senate on January 3rd, a real case for a third Senate conference built around Murkowski and a possible independent, and a closing riff on Nick Saban, Pat McAfee, and why the Protect College Sports Act is doomed without collective bargaining. Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Eight Tuesdays out — and why they actually prepare for these now 03:00 The first midterm convention since the early '80s 04:00 $25,000 a head, and Tim Burchett's surprise invoice 05:00 It lands on the opening night of the NFL season 07:00 The Trump trap — you can't afford to say no 08:00 Nationalizing the election isn't the crazy part 11:00 The convention as a microcosm of the GOP's whole problem 13:00 "Trumpapalooza" — so what's the actual message? 14:00 Conventions aren't for swing voters, and never have been 16:00 Husted, Rogers & the art of the deliberately forgettable speech 19:00 Trump as TV producer — and the 9/11 anniversary the next day 20:00 Will he turn the 25th anniversary into a political speech? 23:00 MAGA Inc's first $10M buy lands in Texas 26:00 They tried calling Talarico weird. It didn't take. 27:00 Trump throws Paxton under the bus in the Oval 29:00 Abbott's slipping margins and the blue tsunami scenario 31:00 South Texas Latinos appear to be shifting back 33:00 Clinton lost Texas by less than she lost Iowa in 2016 34:00 Blue-collar trade unions and the industrial Midwest problem 38:00 Trump asks the Supreme Court for a national mail-voting check 39:00 The rural voters his own rule would punish hardest 42:00 Democrats at 85-88% to take the House 43:00 The Missouri ruling 46:00 Why this is anti-voter, full stop 47:00 The Senate sits at 52-48 Republican. A year ago it was 71-29. 49:00 Alaska, and Dan Sullivan's troubling primary numbers 51:00 The Wall Street Journal's Fetterman story 54:00 The practical stakes: who controls the Senate on January 3rd 55:00 Does Fetterman leave the party? 58:00 He's already built the intellectual case for walking 1:00:00 January 3rd is the whole ballgame 1:02:00 Osborn, Bodner, Banks and the independent wave 1:03:00 The real case for a third Senate conference 1:05:00 Saban and McAfee push the Protect College Sports Act 1:07:00 No labor at the table means it dies in court 1:08:00 Ashley Moody's quiet ACC poison pill 1:12:00 The Nats chase the blown-save record. Sell the team. 1:13:00 Dynastic: Finebaum on why Alabama may not run it backSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
With the fall campaign officially underway after Labor Day, Chuck Todd lays out three scenarios for November and assigns odds to each. A blue mirage (15%) — Democrats still take the House but net only two Senate seats, saved by Republican money from tech and crypto, because you can't buy a new national mood but you can absolutely save individual candidates. A blue wave (50%), the 2006 comparison, where individual races start behaving like one national election and Democrats win everything reasonable. And a blue tsunami (30-35%), where Texas and Florida governorships come into play, independents break hard, and MAGA voters stay home. What separates a wave from a tsunami, Todd argues, is whether corruption breaks through as a voting issue — and data centers may be the most tangible way in. The problem for Democrats remains what it's been all year: they're as unpopular as Republicans, they don't have an obvious agenda, and releasing one risks dividing the party — though not releasing one carries its own risk. He also flags the Missouri map being tossed by the state supreme court, notes the redistricting chaos Republicans started, previews a GOP midterm convention that's purely a base-turnout exercise many candidates may skip, and closes on John Fetterman. The Wall Street Journal report — sourced to more than a dozen former staffers and colleagues plus internal texts — details skipped committee hearings, blown-off constituent meetings, and reluctance to attend police funerals. Fetterman calls it a smear job from disgruntled staffers. His question isn't about the reporting: it's whether Fetterman is still a Democrat come January 2027, and which side of the aisle he and Lisa Murkowski end up sitting on. He also weighs in on week one in college football. Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit Gerald Ford’s decision to pardon Richard Nixon and why the conventional wisdom of it being the right decision… is wrong. He also answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd's introduction 03:30 Fall campaign season kicks off after Labor Day 04:15 Why polling New Hampshire is so difficult 06:45 Democrats have a midterm advantage — the question is how big 07:30 Blue mirage, blue wave, or blue tsunami? 08:00 Evaluating the blue mirage — 15% chance 09:30 Under a mirage, Dems probably net only two Senate seats 11:30 Missouri map thrown out, could add a Democratic seat 12:30 The redistricting wars Republicans started 14:30 Dems raise better online, the GOP has the big-dollar donors 15:45 Tech and crypto money is flowing to Republicans 16:45 You can't buy a national mood, but you can save candidates 18:15 Both parties are equally unpopular — unlike 2018 19:15 Evaluating the blue wave — 50% chance 21:00 In a wave, individual races behave like a national election 23:15 How will the midterm GOP convention play out? 25:15 The convention is purely a base turnout exercise 27:00 Trump does better as an outsider than as an incumbent 29:15 Data centers have become a real political problem 31:00 The problem for Democrats: what are they actually offering? 33:15 Evaluating the blue tsunami — 30-35% chance 34:45 In a tsunami, Texas and Florida governorships are winnable 36:30 For a tsunami, corruption has to break through 37:30 Data centers may be the way into the corruption argument 38:45 The public is telling the tech industry to F off 41:45 If corruption becomes a voting issue, the wave becomes a tsunami 42:45 Will socialism and DSA attacks actually scare independents? 46:15 Independents will decide which scenario plays out 49:15 The WSJ report on John Fetterman 50:45 Will Fetterman still be a Democrat in January 2027? 52:15 Which side of the aisle will Fetterman and Murkowski sit on? 52:45 College football week one recap 1:15:00 ToddCast Time Machine - September 8th, 1974 1:15:30 Gerald Ford pardons Richard Nixon… a huge mistake 1:16:15 Ford earned a profile in courage award for pardoning Nixon 1:17:00 Did Ford’s pardon undermine the rule of law? 1:17:45 Nixon resigned because he lost his political support 1:18:45 Gerald Ford was never elected, he replaced Spiro Agnew 1:19:30 Ford declared our long national nightmare was over 1:21:00 Why did Ford get to decide how much accountability we received 1:22:00 There was a serious potential criminal case & pardon stopped it 1:22:45 Why Ford did have a valid argument for giving the pardon 1:24:30 It was not an easy call, Ford prioritized stability… but what was lost? 1:26:00 The alternative paths Ford could have taken 1:27:30 Ford didn’t intend for investigations of others to stop 1:29:30 The normal pardon process wasn’t followed 1:31:00 Ford faced serious questions from congress about the pardon 1:34:00 Majority of the country supported prosecuting Nixon 1:35:30 Major backlash to the pardon 1:36:00 Eventually people thought Ford did the right thing 1:40:30 Ford created a serious dilemma for future presidents 1:43:30 We have the most corrupt president now because we punted on the last 1:43:45 Ask Chuck 1:44:00 Could AR-02 be won by Democrats in a wave year? 1:48:15 Why do voters support candidates that conflict with their economic interests? 1:53:15 What if a president was aggressive as Trump in doing things that are popular? 1:58:00 Would expanding the house restore power to members and committees? 2:01:30 How can Dems break through to working class & right leaning white voters?See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
With the fall campaign officially underway after Labor Day, Chuck Todd lays out three scenarios for November and assigns odds to each. A blue mirage (15%) — Democrats still take the House but net only two Senate seats, saved by Republican money from tech and crypto, because you can't buy a new national mood but you can absolutely save individual candidates. A blue wave (50%), the 2006 comparison, where individual races start behaving like one national election and Democrats win everything reasonable. And a blue tsunami (30-35%), where Texas and Florida governorships come into play, independents break hard, and MAGA voters stay home. What separates a wave from a tsunami, Todd argues, is whether corruption breaks through as a voting issue — and data centers may be the most tangible way in. The problem for Democrats remains what it's been all year: they're as unpopular as Republicans, they don't have an obvious agenda, and releasing one risks dividing the party — though not releasing one carries its own risk. He also flags the Missouri map being tossed by the state supreme court, notes the redistricting chaos Republicans started, previews a GOP midterm convention that's purely a base-turnout exercise many candidates may skip, and closes on John Fetterman. The Wall Street Journal report — sourced to more than a dozen former staffers and colleagues plus internal texts — details skipped committee hearings, blown-off constituent meetings, and reluctance to attend police funerals. Fetterman calls it a smear job from disgruntled staffers. His question isn't about the reporting: it's whether Fetterman is still a Democrat come January 2027, and which side of the aisle he and Lisa Murkowski end up sitting on. He also weighs in on week one in college football. Then, Bruce Mehlman — founding partner of the bipartisan Mehlman Consulting and the man behind the quarterly slide decks that circulate through half of official Washington — joins the Chuck Toddcast to assess a bifurcated economy and the bills coming due. Millennials are wealthier than their parents were at this age but far more stressed, housing is inflated by a supply shortage, and the central question hanging over everything is whether AI pays off before the investment bill comes due. Mehlman notes the dot-com bubble produced real productivity gains and still burst, and the harder worry isn't the bust itself but whether it arrives at a moment when government can't respond. The back half turns to how business is bracing for a Democratic Congress. Mehlman says the business community knows the pendulum always swings, and an epic wave of oversight is coming — complicated by an OLC position that executive privilege extends to anyone who speaks with Trump, meaning everything gets litigated to the Supreme Court while companies weigh the risk of contempt. On Trump's pay-to-play demands, he argues there are usually paths to alignment without selling your soul, and notes wealthy individuals now carry more political punching power than corporations do. He's especially sharp on data centers, where polling shows tech, AI, and social media all deeply underwater and the backlash is "where Bannon meets Bernie" — the perception being that AI benefits only billionaires and shareholders. His prediction: the House flips and the Senate lands 50-50 — with Michigan the most interesting race on the board, because an El-Sayed win keeps DSA energy alive and makes AOC the 2028 frontrunner. Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit Gerald Ford’s decision to pardon Richard Nixon and why the conventional wisdom of it being the right decision… is wrong. He also answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Timeline: 00:00 Chuck Todd's introduction 03:30 Fall campaign season kicks off after Labor Day 04:15 Why polling New Hampshire is so difficult 06:45 Democrats have a midterm advantage — the question is how big 07:30 Blue mirage, blue wave, or blue tsunami? 08:00 Evaluating the blue mirage — 15% chance 09:30 Under a mirage, Dems probably net only two Senate seats 11:30 Missouri map thrown out, could add a Democratic seat 12:30 The redistricting wars Republicans started 14:30 Dems raise better online, the GOP has the big-dollar donors 15:45 Tech and crypto money is flowing to Republicans 16:45 You can't buy a national mood, but you can save candidates 18:15 Both parties are equally unpopular — unlike 2018 19:15 Evaluating the blue wave — 50% chance 21:00 In a wave, individual races behave like a national election 23:15 How will the midterm GOP convention play out? 25:15 The convention is purely a base turnout exercise 27:00 Trump does better as an outsider than as an incumbent 29:15 Data centers have become a real political problem 31:00 The problem for Democrats: what are they actually offering? 33:15 Evaluating the blue tsunami — 30-35% chance 34:45 In a tsunami, Texas and Florida governorships are winnable 36:30 For a tsunami, corruption has to break through 37:30 Data centers may be the way into the corruption argument 38:45 The public is telling the tech industry to F off 41:45 If corruption becomes a voting issue, the wave becomes a tsunami 42:45 Will socialism and DSA attacks actually scare independents? 46:15 Independents will decide which scenario plays out 49:15 The WSJ report on John Fetterman 50:45 Will Fetterman still be a Democrat in January 2027? 52:15 Which side of the aisle will Fetterman and Murkowski sit on? 52:45 College football week one recap 1:16:30 Bruce Mehlman joins The Chuck ToddCast 1:18:45 Assessing the bifurcated economy 1:19:15 Millennials are wealthier than their parents — and more stressed 1:20:45 We need AI to pay off before the investment bill comes due 1:22:15 Is the AI bubble the railroads or the dot com boom? 1:25:30 Could the bust come when government can't respond? 1:26:30 From $20T to $40T in national debt in ten years 1:28:45 Social Security and Medicare trusts run dry in 2032 1:30:00 If bipartisanship is seen as betrayal, nothing gets done 1:31:45 A 3% tax increase and 3% spending cut would be a start 1:33:30 How is the business community preparing for a Democratic Congress? 1:35:15 An epic amount of oversight is coming 1:36:15 OLC claims executive privilege covers anyone who talks to Trump 1:38:45 Companies won't risk contempt of Congress 1:41:00 Advising clients on Trump's pay-to-play demands 1:43:00 There are paths to alignment without selling your soul 1:45:15 We need reforms to get out of this Gilded Age 1:47:30 How should big tech make the case for data centers? 1:50:30 Voters are open to data centers if harms are mitigated 1:53:30 Tech CEOs are viewed as villains by the public 1:55:30 The data center backlash is where Bannon meets Bernie 1:58:45 Is there anyone in Silicon Valley who can sell this? 2:05:45 What Walmart got right about storytelling 2:07:00 Prediction: the House flips and the Senate goes 50-50 2:09:30 If it's 50-50 and Alaska flips… what does Murkowski do? 2:11:00 Michigan is the most interesting race on the board 2:13:00 The bull case for James Talarico is Roy Moore in Alabama 2:16:30 ToddCast Time Machine - September 8th, 1974 2:17:00 Gerald Ford pardons Richard Nixon… a huge mistake 2:17:45 Ford earned a profile in courage award for pardoning Nixon 2:18:30 Did Ford’s pardon undermine the rule of law? 2:19:15 Nixon resigned because he lost his political support 2:20:15 Gerald Ford was never elected, he replaced Spiro Agnew 2:21:00 Ford declared our long national nightmare was over 2:23:30 There was a serious potential criminal case & pardon stopped it 2:24:15 Why Ford did have a valid argument for giving the pardon 2:26:00 It was not an easy call, Ford prioritized stability… but what was lost? 2:27:30 The alternative paths Ford could have taken 2:31:00 The normal pardon process wasn’t followed 2:32:30 Ford faced serious questions from congress about the pardon 2:35:30 Majority of the country supported prosecuting Nixon 2:37:00 Major backlash to the pardon 2:37:30 Eventually people thought Ford did the right thing 2:42:00 Ford created a serious dilemma for future presidents 2:45:00 We have the most corrupt president now because we punted on the last 2:45:15 Ask Chuck 2:45:30 Could AR-02 be won by Democrats in a wave year? 2:49:45 Why do voters support candidates that conflict with their economic interests? 2:54:45 What if a president was aggressive as Trump in doing things that are popular? 2:59:30 Would expanding the house restore power to members and committees? 3:03:00 How can Dems break through to working class & right leaning white voters?See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Bruce Mehlman — founding partner of the bipartisan Mehlman Consulting and the man behind the quarterly slide decks that circulate through half of official Washington — joins the Chuck Toddcast to assess a bifurcated economy and the bills coming due. Millennials are wealthier than their parents were at this age but far more stressed, housing is inflated by a supply shortage, and the central question hanging over everything is whether AI pays off before the investment bill comes due. Mehlman notes the dot-com bubble produced real productivity gains and still burst, and the harder worry isn't the bust itself but whether it arrives at a moment when government can't respond: the national debt has doubled from $20 trillion to $40 trillion in a decade, the Social Security and Medicare trusts run dry in 2032, and there's no political courage to touch any of it — because in a system where bipartisanship reads as betrayal, nothing gets done. His modest starting point: a 3% tax increase paired with a 3% spending cut. The back half turns to how business is bracing for a Democratic Congress. Mehlman says the business community knows the pendulum always swings, and an epic wave of oversight is coming — complicated by an OLC position that executive privilege extends to anyone who speaks with Trump, meaning everything gets litigated to the Supreme Court while companies weigh the risk of contempt. On Trump's pay-to-play demands, he argues there are usually paths to alignment without selling your soul, and notes wealthy individuals now carry more political punching power than corporations do. He's especially sharp on data centers, where polling shows tech, AI, and social media all deeply underwater and the backlash is "where Bannon meets Bernie" — the perception being that AI benefits only billionaires and shareholders. The fix is making local benefits visible, and finding a communicator who isn't a CEO, since tech executives are now viewed as villains. His prediction: the House flips and the Senate lands 50-50 — with Michigan the most interesting race on the board, because an El-Sayed win keeps DSA energy alive and makes AOC the 2028 frontrunner. Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Bruce Mehlman joins The Chuck ToddCast 02:15 Assessing the bifurcated economy 02:45 Millennials are wealthier than their parents — and more stressed 04:15 We need AI to pay off before the investment bill comes due 05:45 Is the AI bubble the railroads or the dot com boom? 09:00 Could the bust come when government can't respond? 10:00 From $20T to $40T in national debt in ten years 12:15 Social Security and Medicare trusts run dry in 2032 13:30 If bipartisanship is seen as betrayal, nothing gets done 15:15 A 3% tax increase and 3% spending cut would be a start 17:00 How is the business community preparing for a Democratic Congress? 18:45 An epic amount of oversight is coming 19:45 OLC claims executive privilege covers anyone who talks to Trump 22:15 Companies won't risk contempt of Congress 24:30 Advising clients on Trump's pay-to-play demands 26:30 There are paths to alignment without selling your soul 28:45 We need reforms to get out of this Gilded Age 31:00 How should big tech make the case for data centers? 34:00 Voters are open to data centers if harms are mitigated 37:00 Tech CEOs are viewed as villains by the public 39:00 The data center backlash is where Bannon meets Bernie 42:15 Is there anyone in Silicon Valley who can sell this? 49:15 What Walmart got right about storytelling 50:30 Prediction: the House flips and the Senate goes 50-50 53:00 If it's 50-50 and Alaska flips… what does Murkowski do? 54:30 Michigan is the most interesting race on the board 56:30 The bull case for James Talarico is Roy Moore in AlabamaSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Chuck Todd reads the tea leaves on a building Democratic wave: primary turnout is up 35% over 2022 while Republican turnout is down 4%, and Todd argues voter behavior is a far better predictor than polling — though it's a tea leaf, not a guarantee. He then digs into an underappreciated dynamic that could decide Senate control: governor's races make the weather. Texas, Chuck argues, is now more plausible for Democrats than Iowa. And South Carolina, which Republicans never expected to worry about, just got more expensive after Ralph Norman told supporters to write him in rather than back Darline Graham. The second half is a five-alarm fire at the Pentagon. Army Secretary Dan Driscoll resigned this week over Hegseth blocking Army modernization by firing the generals leading it — the latest in a purge that has left the Army without a chief of staff for months and cut four-star positions from ten to five, all during an active war. Chuck’s read is that this is a deliberate gutting and argues the fired and recently resigned generals have an obligation to speak up, because silence doesn't protect the institution. He closes with what he calls the cancer in American politics — the House — using Jared Golden's lobster fishing bill as the perfect illustration: Golden had to vote for a Republican rule just to get a floor vote on his own legislation, then got accused by leadership of a breach of trust for representing his constituents. That's the disease, Chuck argues, and Democrats will inherit every bit of it. Finally, Chuck updates his ToddCast Top 5 list of senate seats most likely to flip, answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment, and previews week 1 in college football. Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd's introduction 04:15 A Democratic wave is building… but how big? 06:15 Dem turnout up 35% from 2022, GOP turnout down 4% 08:30 A tea leaf, not a guarantee — and why behavior beats polling 11:15 New Hampshire primaries preview 13:15 Senate control may be decided by governor races in MI, TX and IA 14:30 Ramaswamy is the wrong avatar for a Republican to win Ohio 16:45 Republicans didn't think they'd have to worry about South Carolina 17:30 Ralph Norman tells supporters to write him in rather than back Graham 22:15 Governor's races make the weather and drag Senate candidates along 26:00 Ticket splitting hasn't disappeared since 2010, but it's less common 27:15 Breaking down the penalty for various candidate sins 30:00 Ken Paxton needs Abbott to win big — and Abbott's trending down 33:15 Todd Akin's voters fled to the Libertarians in 2012 35:00 El-Sayed's penalty isn't scandal, it's ideological — 2-3 points 36:00 Jocelyn Benson is running the best campaign of the cycle 38:45 Iowa hasn't split a governor/senate race since 1998 41:45 Texas looks more plausible for Democrats than Iowa 43:45 Problems at the Pentagon should be a five-alarm fire 45:30 Hegseth forced out the leaders modernizing the Army 47:45 Hollowing out the military during an active war 48:45 Hegseth wants the Pentagon to be a reality show about himself 52:00 Assets needed to deter Russia & China are being removed 54:15 Military leaders must be able to disagree with civilian leadership 57:00 An obligation to warn the country if the military is being weakened 59:45 The House of Representatives is the cancer in our political system 1:03:30 The Jared Golden lobster bill saga 1:06:30 Golden voted for a GOP rule to get a vote on his own bill 1:09:45 Leadership accused him of breaching trust… by representing their voters 1:13:00 If Democrats win the House, they inherit all of this dysfunction 1:18:00 The House is the cancer we have to cure first 1:20:30 ToddCast Top 5 senate seats most likely to flip 1:21:00 #1 North Carolina 1:21:45 #2 Alaska 1:22:15 #3 Texas 1:23:45 #4 Ohio 1:25:30 #5 Tie between Maine & Michigan 1:27:30 Ask Chuck 1:27:45 Could the Bradley effect be in play in the Texas senate race? 1:30:00 Should congress be doing more to protect the mail-in vote? 1:33:00 Thoughts on proposal to add 12 at large senators? 1:35:15 College football preview 1:40:30 Column on Lane Kiffin being the “bad boy” of college footballSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Chuck Todd reads the tea leaves on a building Democratic wave: primary turnout is up 35% over 2022 while Republican turnout is down 4%, and Todd argues voter behavior is a far better predictor than polling — though it's a tea leaf, not a guarantee. He then digs into an underappreciated dynamic that could decide Senate control: governor's races make the weather. Texas, Chuck argues, is now more plausible for Democrats than Iowa. And South Carolina, which Republicans never expected to worry about, just got more expensive after Ralph Norman told supporters to write him in rather than back Darline Graham. The second half is a five-alarm fire at the Pentagon. Army Secretary Dan Driscoll resigned this week over Hegseth blocking Army modernization by firing the generals leading it — the latest in a purge that has left the Army without a chief of staff for months and cut four-star positions from ten to five, all during an active war. Chuck’s read is that this is a deliberate gutting and argues the fired and recently resigned generals have an obligation to speak up, because silence doesn't protect the institution. He closes with what he calls the cancer in American politics — the House — using Jared Golden's lobster fishing bill as the perfect illustration: Golden had to vote for a Republican rule just to get a floor vote on his own legislation, then got accused by leadership of a breach of trust for representing his constituents. That's the disease, Chuck argues, and Democrats will inherit every bit of it. Documentarian Brian Knappenberger joins the Chuck Toddcast to discuss Turning Point: Generation 9/11, out on Netflix September 2nd — a film built around a striking fact: more than half of Americans were either born after 2001 or were too young to remember it. Knappenberger's aim was to bring that generation into the moment, capturing not just the attack but the fear and uncertainty that followed, including the attacks everyone braced for that never came. He points to a news clip in the film where 63% of Americans said they'd trade freedom for security, and to the AUMF passed almost immediately with Barbara Lee as the lone no vote. He and Chuck revisit the genuine moment of global unity — the only time NATO's Article 5 has ever been triggered — and Bush's real effort to reassure American Muslims, progress on Islamophobia that Knappenberger argues has since been squandered. The back half is a hard-nosed accounting. Driving the Taliban out was a success; the Iraq war took America's eye off the ball; intelligence agencies genuinely do communicate better now. But al-Qaeda was only a few hundred people who exploited a vulnerability, and the domino effect produced ISIS, something far larger. Knappenberger talks about interviewing kids who lost parents that day — including a pilot's daughter still trolled online by a Truther movement that social media made possible — and about Marines at Abbey Gate, many not yet alive on 9/11, expressing real conflict about what it was all for. Chuck’s question hangs over it: after 25 years of Pentagon budgets, what exactly did we get? And with no meaningful congressional oversight of the Iran war, the founders' decision that a king shouldn't declare wars feels less like history than a warning. Knappenberger's hope is simple — that we remember the fear well enough not to repeat the mistakes it produced. Finally, Chuck updates his ToddCast Top 5 list of senate seats most likely to flip, answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment, and previews week 1 in college football. Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd's introduction 04:15 A Democratic wave is building… but how big? 06:15 Dem turnout up 35% from 2022, GOP turnout down 4% 08:30 A tea leaf, not a guarantee — and why behavior beats polling 11:15 New Hampshire primaries preview 13:15 Senate control may be decided by governor races in MI, TX and IA 14:30 Ramaswamy is the wrong avatar for a Republican to win Ohio 16:45 Republicans didn't think they'd have to worry about South Carolina 17:30 Ralph Norman tells supporters to write him in rather than back Graham 22:15 Governor's races make the weather and drag Senate candidates along 26:00 Ticket splitting hasn't disappeared since 2010, but it's less common 27:15 Breaking down the penalty for various candidate sins 30:00 Ken Paxton needs Abbott to win big — and Abbott's trending down 33:15 Todd Akin's voters fled to the Libertarians in 2012 35:00 El-Sayed's penalty isn't scandal, it's ideological — 2-3 points 36:00 Jocelyn Benson is running the best campaign of the cycle 38:45 Iowa hasn't split a governor/senate race since 1998 41:45 Texas looks more plausible for Democrats than Iowa 43:45 Problems at the Pentagon should be a five-alarm fire 45:30 Hegseth forced out the leaders modernizing the Army 47:45 Hollowing out the military during an active war 48:45 Hegseth wants the Pentagon to be a reality show about himself 52:00 Assets needed to deter Russia & China are being removed 54:15 Military leaders must be able to disagree with civilian leadership 57:00 An obligation to warn the country if the military is being weakened 59:45 The House of Representatives is the cancer in our political system 1:03:30 The Jared Golden lobster bill saga 1:06:30 Golden voted for a GOP rule to get a vote on his own bill 1:09:45 Leadership accused him of breaching trust… by representing their voters 1:13:00 If Democrats win the House, they inherit all of this dysfunction 1:18:00 The House is the cancer we have to cure first 1:22:45 Brian Knappenberger joins The Chuck ToddCast 1:25:15 Many Americans are too young to remember 9/11 well 1:27:15 9/11 is moving from a lived memory into history 1:30:45 Wanted to capture the fear and uncertainty of that period in time 1:34:45 Want the next generation not to fall into the same trap of fear & suspicion 1:39:45 The rally around the flag effect after the attacks 1:42:30 There was a real moment of unity worldwide before the divisiveness 1:43:00 The only time Article V of NATO was triggered was from 9/11 1:47:15 Pre-Trump the country had made real progress on Islamaphobia 1:48:00 Talked to a lot of kids who lost parents on 9/11 for the doc 1:49:15 Social media emerged after 9/11 and the “Truther” movement came with it 1:51:15 Driving the Taliban out of Afghanistan was a positive 1:51:45 We took our eye off the ball with the Iraq war 1:54:45 Have we sufficiently answered why Bin Laden attacked us 1:59:00 The real damage was the divisiveness and attrition of two wars 2:00:00 Al-Qaeda was only a few hundred people, exploited a vulnerability 2:01:15 The domino effect created ISIS, which is much larger than Al-Qaeda 2:06:00 Marines at Abbey Gate express feeling conflicted 2:08:30 25 years of Pentagon budgets has gotten us…what? 2:10:45 There seems to be no congressional oversight with the Iran war 2:11:15 What other Turning Point projects do you have in the works? 2:12:45 Ukraine war is a weird blend of history and modern technology 2:15:45 9/11 changed our perception of ourselves and our vulnerabilities 2:20:00 ToddCast Top 5 senate seats most likely to flip 2:20:30 #1 North Carolina 2:21:15 #2 Alaska 2:21:45 #3 Texas 2:23:15 #4 Ohio 2:25:00 #5 Tie between Maine & Michigan 2:27:00 Ask Chuck 2:27:15 Could the Bradley effect be in play in the Texas senate race? 2:29:30 Should congress be doing more to protect the mail-in vote? 2:32:30 Thoughts on proposal to add 12 at large senators? 2:34:45 College football preview 2:40:00 Column on Lane Kiffin being the “bad boy” of college footballSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Documentarian Brian Knappenberger joins the Chuck Toddcast to discuss Turning Point: Generation 9/11, out on Netflix September 2nd — a film built around a striking fact: more than half of Americans were either born after 2001 or were too young to remember it. Knappenberger's aim was to bring that generation into the moment, capturing not just the attack but the fear and uncertainty that followed, including the attacks everyone braced for that never came. He points to a news clip in the film where 63% of Americans said they'd trade freedom for security, and to the AUMF passed almost immediately with Barbara Lee as the lone no vote. He and Chuck revisit the genuine moment of global unity — the only time NATO's Article 5 has ever been triggered — and Bush's real effort to reassure American Muslims, progress on Islamophobia that Knappenberger argues has since been squandered. The back half is a hard-nosed accounting. Driving the Taliban out was a success; the Iraq war took America's eye off the ball; intelligence agencies genuinely do communicate better now. But al-Qaeda was only a few hundred people who exploited a vulnerability, and the domino effect produced ISIS, something far larger. Knappenberger talks about interviewing kids who lost parents that day — including a pilot's daughter still trolled online by a Truther movement that social media made possible — and about Marines at Abbey Gate, many not yet alive on 9/11, expressing real conflict about what it was all for. Chuck’s question hangs over it: after 25 years of Pentagon budgets, what exactly did we get? And with no meaningful congressional oversight of the Iran war, the founders' decision that a king shouldn't declare wars feels less like history than a warning. Knappenberger's hope is simple — that we remember the fear well enough not to repeat the mistakes it produced. Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Brian Knappenberger joins The Chuck ToddCast 02:30 Many Americans are too young to remember 9/11 well 04:30 9/11 is moving from a lived memory into history 08:00 Wanted to capture the fear and uncertainty of that period in time 12:00 Want the next generation not to fall into the same trap of fear & suspicion 17:00 The rally around the flag effect after the attacks 19:45 There was a real moment of unity worldwide before the divisiveness 20:15 The only time Article V of NATO was triggered was from 9/11 24:30 Pre-Trump the country had made real progress on Islamaphobia 25:15 Talked to a lot of kids who lost parents on 9/11 for the doc 26:30 Social media emerged after 9/11 and the “Truther” movement came with it 28:30 Driving the Taliban out of Afghanistan was a positive 29:00 We took our eye off the ball with the Iraq war 32:00 Have we sufficiently answered why Bin Laden attacked us 36:15 The real damage was the divisiveness and attrition of two wars 37:15 Al-Qaeda was only a few hundred people, exploited a vulnerability 38:30 The domino effect created ISIS, which is much larger than Al-Qaeda 43:15 Marines at Abbey Gate express feeling conflicted 45:45 25 years of Pentagon budgets has gotten us…what? 48:00 There seems to be no congressional oversight with the Iran war 48:30 What other Turning Point projects do you have in the works? 50:00 Ukraine war is a weird blend of history and modern technology 53:00 9/11 changed our perception of ourselves and our vulnerabilitiesSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Inside ten weeks to the midterms, Chuck Todd and Chris Cillizza start with the race Republicans have suddenly woken up to: Texas. With Talarico sitting on $21.5 million to Paxton's $1.75 million, Cornyn refusing to raise money in-state, and John Kennedy telling Fox News flatly that the Senate doesn't have the money budgeted for Texas, the guys argue the GOP's comfort blanket — that this is a Paxton problem, not a party problem — is wrong. Chuck's bet: no Republican on the Texas statewide ticket breaks 55%. From there they turn to the issue that's moved faster than either expected, data centers, framed by Trump's Monday Truth Social post declaring that communities rejecting them "want to end up being backwards and poor" and urging the country to "let Data Reign." Chuck and Chris place it in the rare category of issues voters force onto politicians rather than the reverse — the opioid crisis being the last one — and track the fallout from Wisconsin, where Tom Tiffany is already hitting David Crowley on it, to Shapiro and Hochul reversing course, to the blue-collar trade unions now cutting the other way. The heart of the episode is a long strategic read of the map. The Atlantic reported Trump wants to deploy MAGA Inc's roughly $400 million on ads touting his own second term, telling voters to "pretend I'm on the ballot" — and Chuck makes the counterintuitive case that it may be defensible where the fight actually is, even as they debate whether it gooses MAGA turnout or hands independents another reason to break left. They walk the four-seat path through North Carolina, Maine, Ohio, and Alaska, why Michigan is the state that keeps Democrats up at night, and what Abdul El-Sayed's ongoing Hasan Piker problem is costing him thirty days after the primary. Chris picks Texas as the GOP's nightmare on sheer cost; Chuck picks Iowa, where three House seats, a Senate seat, and a governorship all sit on the table. Plus: the 2028er welcome in both red and blue America (it's not who you'd guess), Trump's demand that the FCC punish Kristen Welker over a single mild remark, a blistering segment on Pete Hegseth and a munitions shortage nobody in Congress seems to be asking about, and the Nats' blown ninth-inning lead as a season in miniature. Timeline: 00:00 Inside ten weeks — and a college football appetizer 01:00 Why college football has become prime political ad real estate 02:00 The ads they spotted: anti-Whatley in NC, anti-Talarico in Texas 03:00 Republicans wake up to a real race a real money problem in Texas 04:00 The cash disparity — $21.5M for Talarico, $1.75M for Paxton 05:00 The Texas governor's race 06:00 A one-party state can't blame a party that doesn't exist 07:00 Is Paxton the problem, or is it the environment? 08:00 Trump's data center post: "let Data Reign" 10:00 Reid Wilson called data centers the sleeper issue six weeks ago 11:00 Washington is only discovering what voters have said for months 12:00 David Wallace-Wells & data centers as a vessel for tech frustration 13:00 Wisconsin: Tiffany already attacking Crowley on data centers 14:00 Big tech is the new big Pharma 15:00 The counter-trend: blue-collar trade unions saying these are jobs 16:00 Why is Trump this pro-data-center in an anti-data-center moment? 19:00 The Atlantic: Trump wants to spend the $400M and run his own campaign 20:00 "Pretend I am on the ballot" 21:00 Wave-year history: Clinton in '00, Bush in '06, Obama in '10 and '14 22:00 Where Trump can't go: Ohio, North Carolina, Maine, Michigan 23:00 The four-seat path — North Carolina, Maine, Ohio, Alaska 24:00 The fifth state problem: Iowa, Texas, Kansas, Nebraska, Montana 25:00 The Darline Graham rescue mission and what it proved 26:00 Democratic gains are a given — the question is wave or tsunami 27:00 This election is about the cost of living 28:00 Cook's toss-ups always break in one direction 31:00 What if Republicans win New Hampshire and Democrats win Texas? 34:00 The state that keeps Democrats up at night 35:00 El-Sayed is still doing cleanup thirty days after the primary 37:00 The libertarian-candidate play red-state Democrats aren't running 38:00 The Hasan Piker problem 39:00 The Detroit synagogue comment and the apology he did make 42:00 The Trump-and-white-supremacists parallel 43:00 Alaska as the wild card: ranked choice, two Sullivans, Peltola 45:00 Josh Turek is a very hard candidate to attack 47:00 Rob Sand deserves 30% of the buzz Ossoff is getting 49:00 The Obama-in-'06 comparison and the asses-in-seats metric 50:00 Newsom went to Michigan and couldn't find anyone to campaign with 52:00 Trump demands the FCC punish Kristen Welker 54:00 What the meltdown says about how fragile he is 57:00 The Maggie Haberman attack, 48 hours apart 58:00 Hegseth gets the worst week in Washington 59:00 Sean Parnell, the influencer hires & a very online secretary 1:00:00 The cabinet primary: Lutnick, RFK Jr., Gabbard 1:02:00 Are we really out of munitions after one excursion against Iran? 1:03:00 Lake Ontario gets more coverage than troops without weapons 1:05:00 The Nats blow a 2-0 ninth-inning lead to the Marlins 1:07:00 No bullpen help at the deadline, and here we are 1:07:00 Becoming Statler and Waldorf 1:08:00 Tuesday night live: the Massachusetts primarySee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Chuck Todd argues the entire 2026 election is collapsing into a single issue — prices — and that every other story is just a contributing factor. The problem for Republicans is that the economy is going to get worse, not better: price pressure is building across the food supply, the Iran war has disrupted fuel and fertilizer, JP Morgan is warning food inflation could hit 5% by 2027, and Kevin Warsh is going to be forced to raise rates, which will infuriate a president who Chuck argues is focused mainly on his own financial interests and could produce genuinely 1970s-like conditions. Chuck brings back reporting from a visit to the Black Locust Livestock cattle ranch to explain why beef prices can't be fixed by turning a dial: raising cattle is a years-long process, the American herd is historically small, only four companies process the country's beef and capacity is shrinking, and importing more is a short-term patch that damages domestic supply long term. It's the pattern of the whole administration — solving a price problem today by making it worse tomorrow, while the cost of producing food rises because of decisions Trump himself made. Underneath it all sits the number that explains the mood of the country: corporate pre-tax profits are at their highest share since just after World War II while workers take home the smallest share since the 1950s. There is no economic boom for most Americans, Washington keeps misreading the anger, and Trump's own voters are getting hit hardest at the pump. The war, Chuck argues, isn't just making life expensive — it's making America vulnerable. Defense leaders are warning Hegseth the Iran campaign is unsustainable: barely a quarter of the Navy's destroyer fleet is ready to deploy, advanced munitions stocks are largely burned through, and equipment and personnel are worn out, meaning fighting this war has left the country less capable of fighting the next one. China is the clear winner of Trump's second term, and Chuck’s real worry is Putin testing NATO while looking at an American president desperate for any win. Then there's Venezuela, where Trump has announced the U.S. has seized the country's oil reserves — a move Chuck calls British-empire-style imperialism and highway robbery at gunpoint, asking the obvious question: if Putin did this to a neighbor, what would we call it? The standard shouldn't change because we're the ones doing it, the windfall ought to benefit Venezuelans, and it's worth asking who's actually negotiating this and who stands to profit. It's exactly why two-thirds of South America resents the United States, and why Trump's imperial turn will only compound a credibility problem that's already severe. Chuck closes somewhere more personal: his old high school, Miami's Killian, is down from 3,000 students to 400. The kids didn't disappear — school choice killed the ambition to attend. Big public high schools once defined their communities and forced people to know each other; we traded that for choice and specialization without ever asking what a public school is actually for. We didn't try to fix public education, Chuck argues. We empowered people to escape it — and in doing so gutted one of the real sources of American strength. Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit the assassination of President William McKinley and the striking parallels between modern America, and America in 1901. He also answers listeners’ questions in the Ask Chuck segment. Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 04:30 With return of college football, comes a ton of political advertising 05:00 Football attracts a wide array of potential voters 06:30 Pro-Paxton ad in Texas made China the central theme, blamed Talarico 07:30 GOP has controlled Texas for decades, blaming Talarico is ridiculous 10:00 Dems dismiss the ad as ridiculous, but some people will believe it 12:15 Massachusetts primaries coming up on Tuesday, Sept 1st 14:15 The electorate will be voting on one issue… prices & affordability 15:00 Every other issue is a contributing factor to the price issues 15:45 The problem for Republicans is the economy will get worse, not better 16:30 Price pressures are building across the food supply 16:45 Iran war is causing major issues with the fuel & fertilizer supply 18:00 JP Morgan warns food inflation could reach 5% by 2027 18:30 Kevin Warsh will be forced to raise rates, Trump will be furious 19:00 Trump is only worried about his own personal financial interest 19:45 Fed raising rates to combat inflation will create 1970’s like conditions 20:15 Went to the Black Locust Livestock cattle ranch for Noosphere interview 21:45 Beef prices can’t just be adjusted with the turn of a dial 22:15 Raising cattle is a long term process & our beef herd is historically small 23:00 Trump knows beef prices are hurting him & wanted to import more 24:15 Importing is a short term solution, hurts the long term domestic supply 25:00 Only 4 companies process American beef & we’re losing capacity 25:30 How we can lower beef prices and boost domestic production 26:30 Trump tries to solve price issues in the short term, makes it worse long term 27:00 The price to produce food is rising because of decisions Trump made 27:45 Corporate pre-tax profits are at highest share since aftermath of WW2 28:15 Workers are getting lowest take home share of profits since 1950s 29:00 This is why voters across the spectrum are so pissed off at the system 29:30 There’s no economic boom for most Americans 30:15 Washington continues to misunderstand the anger of the voters 30:45 Trump voters are getting hardest hit by higher gas prices 32:30 Iran war isn’t just making things expensive, it’s making us more vulnerable 33:00 Defense leaders warning Hegseth the Iran war is unsustainable 33:45 Hegseth has put America in more danger than it’s been in since Cold War 34:15 Barely 1/4th of the Navy’s destroyer fleet is ready to deploy 34:45 We’ve burned through most of our advanced munitions 35:15 We’ve worn out our military equipment and personnel 36:00 Fighting this war has made us less capable of fighting the next war 36:30 China has been the biggest winner of Trump’s second term 37:00 What are we no longer willing to do because of the Iran war? 38:00 We’ve spent all this money on the military… and we’re tapped out? 38:30 We should be incredibly concerned about Putin testing NATO 39:15 Putin sees an American president desperate for a win 40:00 Trump announced that we’ve seized Venezuela’s oil reserves 40:45 This feels like British empire style imperialism 42:00 If Putin had done this to another country… what would we call it? 42:30 The standards shouldn’t be different because WE are doing it 43:30 Who is doing this negotiation and who stands to benefit? 44:30 Shouldn’t the windfall from Venezuelan oil benefit Venezuelans? 45:00 Trump is taking Venezuela’s oil at gunpoint, it’s highway robbery 46:00 This is why 2/3rd’s of South America hates the United States 46:30 Trump wants to make America and empire… and the world will hate us 48:00 This compounds America’s credibility problem globally 49:00 The world is only going to hate America & Americans more due to Trump 51:00 Chuck’s high school, Killian is down to 400 students from 3,000 51:45 The kids didn’t disappear, school choice killed ambition to attend there 53:00 Big successful public high schools defined their communities 54:30 Connection between community and schools has broken down 55:00 School choice creates communities not based in their neighborhood 56:00 We haven’t asked “What do we want a public school to do for a community?” 56:45 A public school is central to creating a local community 57:30 We trade choice and specialization, for a community that isn’t forced to interact 59:00 Killian’s community is still a good one, but the character changed 1:00:15 What exactly is public education for? Is it purely for kids' education? 1:01:00 The public school system was a source of our power… and we’ve gutted it 1:01:30 We didn’t try to fix public ed, we tried to empower people to escape it 1:03:45 We created more choices, but did we make education better? 1:05:45 We lost a place where we were forced to get to know each other 1:09:00 ToddCast Time Machine - The Assassination of William McKinley 1:09:30 Of all presidential assassinations, Americans know the least about this one 1:10:00 The assassin was Leon Czolgosz, an anarchist who felt system was unjust 1:10:45 After McKinley died, Teddy Roosevelt became president 1:11:15 Czolgosz actually produced some of the political change he wanted 1:12:00 Modern America echoes America in 1901 1:13:00 Czolgosz saw political assassinations create change in Europe 1:14:45 Other anarchists thought Czolgosz was too committed, maybe a plant 1:15:15 Emma Goldman argues that societal conditions explain the assassination 1:16:00 When people conclude politics won’t solve problems, they look to alternatives 1:16:45 The assassination happened at a fair showing celebrating technological advances 1:17:30 The United States was emerging as a world power, but there were two Americas 1:18:00 One America saw dynamism, the other saw exploitation 1:18:30 The setting of the assassination was almost poetic 1:19:15 Doctors treating McKinley were too afraid to use new X-ray technology 1:20:15 Lincoln’s son was actually nearby during the assassination 1:20:45 Roosevelt was installed as VP by party bosses to get rid of him 1:21:30 Roosevelt sworn in at age 42, and understood the conditions for political radicalism 1:22:00 Roosevelt argues for the “Square Deal” and goes after concentrated corporate power 1:23:00 The uncomfortable truth: Does assassination provide the sought political change? 1:23:45 Lincoln and JFK’s assassination both changed the political timeline 1:25:00 Czolgosz was convicted and executed weeks after McKinley’s death 1:25:30 Congress passes the Anarchist Exclusion Act, Goldman is deported 1:27:00 The forces that produced Czolgosz weren’t confined to America 1:27:30 Roosevelt’s policies helped prevent a Russian-style revolution 1:28:00 Roosevelt argues capitalism has to be regulated and restrained 1:29:15 America in 2026 isn’t America 1901, but it does rhyme 1:30:15 Ask Chuck 1:30:30 What do you make of James Talarico’s status in Texas? 1:36:30 Thoughts on Project 2025, is it a threat and is Trump following it? 1:38:45 Do you think the Trump administration will still act on Cuba? 1:41:00 Why not make the Attorney General an elected position? 1:44:45 Do you see your political independence as a protest against duopoly? 1:49:00 Takeaways from first week of college footballSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Chuck Todd argues the entire 2026 election is collapsing into a single issue — prices — and that every other story is just a contributing factor. The problem for Republicans is that the economy is going to get worse, not better: price pressure is building across the food supply, the Iran war has disrupted fuel and fertilizer, JP Morgan is warning food inflation could hit 5% by 2027, and Kevin Warsh is going to be forced to raise rates, which will infuriate a president who Chuck argues is focused mainly on his own financial interests and could produce genuinely 1970s-like conditions. Chuck brings back reporting from a visit to the Black Locust Livestock cattle ranch to explain why beef prices can't be fixed by turning a dial: raising cattle is a years-long process, the American herd is historically small, only four companies process the country's beef and capacity is shrinking, and importing more is a short-term patch that damages domestic supply long term. It's the pattern of the whole administration — solving a price problem today by making it worse tomorrow, while the cost of producing food rises because of decisions Trump himself made. Underneath it all sits the number that explains the mood of the country: corporate pre-tax profits are at their highest share since just after World War II while workers take home the smallest share since the 1950s. There is no economic boom for most Americans, Washington keeps misreading the anger, and Trump's own voters are getting hit hardest at the pump. The war, Chuck argues, isn't just making life expensive — it's making America vulnerable. Defense leaders are warning Hegseth the Iran campaign is unsustainable: barely a quarter of the Navy's destroyer fleet is ready to deploy, advanced munitions stocks are largely burned through, and equipment and personnel are worn out, meaning fighting this war has left the country less capable of fighting the next one. China is the clear winner of Trump's second term, and Chuck’s real worry is Putin testing NATO while looking at an American president desperate for any win. Then there's Venezuela, where Trump has announced the U.S. has seized the country's oil reserves — a move Chuck calls British-empire-style imperialism and highway robbery at gunpoint, asking the obvious question: if Putin did this to a neighbor, what would we call it? The standard shouldn't change because we're the ones doing it, the windfall ought to benefit Venezuelans, and it's worth asking who's actually negotiating this and who stands to profit. It's exactly why two-thirds of South America resents the United States, and why Trump's imperial turn will only compound a credibility problem that's already severe. Chuck closes somewhere more personal: his old high school, Miami's Killian, is down from 3,000 students to 400. The kids didn't disappear — school choice killed the ambition to attend. Big public high schools once defined their communities and forced people to know each other; we traded that for choice and specialization without ever asking what a public school is actually for. We didn't try to fix public education, Chuck argues. We empowered people to escape it — and in doing so gutted one of the real sources of American strength. Then, Ohio Governor Mike DeWine joins the Chuck Toddcast in his final months in office and, freed from ever facing voters again, says exactly what he thinks. The headline is his reversal on capital punishment: DeWine helped write Ohio's death penalty statute as a state senator in 1981 and defended it as attorney general, but in June he called on the legislature to abolish it, saying the moral justification he once had simply no longer exists. He walks Chuck through the practical case — roughly 20 years on average from sentencing to execution, a process that structurally cannot be sped up — and the harder question a Republican has to answer about whether you can be both pro-life and pro-death penalty. That flows into a broader argument about criminal justice that DeWine says has been driven by emotion rather than logic: truly violent offenders are a small percentage of the prison population and those are the people who need to be removed from society, but it's in society's direct self-interest to educate and rehabilitate everyone else. He's equally out of step with his party on immigration, arguing America needs legal immigrants, that we've been educating them and then failing to keep them, that Ohio's economic gains have come from immigrants, and that they're critical to caring for an aging population. On Springfield, DeWine is direct: the Haitian population created real challenges for the community, but they work hard, and it is not in America's interest to deport people who are here and working. The conversation turns to the economy and the state's political future. DeWine calls the Canada trade war a genuine problem for Ohio — Canada is a major customer — and argues the country needs a real balance between domestic manufacturing and importing rather than a grudge match. On the data center boom reshaping Ohio politics, he says tech companies have an obligation to invest in the communities they move into, notes the technology has improved and no longer requires as much water, and makes the case that nuclear power is what will actually have to underwrite the buildout. He and Chuck get into whether there's a genuine divide between the two factions of the Ohio GOP, and DeWine offers a thoughtful answer about how the nationalization of politics has flattened the local distinctions that once existed inside both parties — and how that nationalization is now in everyone's face every single day. He takes ownership of the COVID shutdown decisions (the buck stopped with him), assesses whether Ohio is genuinely back to purple status with both the governor and Senate races going down to the wire, weighs in on whether the state is in good hands with either Vivek Ramaswamy or Amy Acton — and, of course, whether this is finally Joe Burrow's year. Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit the assassination of President William McKinley and the striking parallels between modern America, and America in 1901. He also answers listeners’ questions in the Ask Chuck segment. Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 04:30 With return of college football, comes a ton of political advertising 05:00 Football attracts a wide array of potential voters 06:30 Pro-Paxton ad in Texas made China the central theme, blamed Talarico 07:30 GOP has controlled Texas for decades, blaming Talarico is ridiculous 10:00 Dems dismiss the ad as ridiculous, but some people will believe it 12:15 Massachusetts primaries coming up on Tuesday, Sept 1st 14:15 The electorate will be voting on one issue… prices & affordability 15:00 Every other issue is a contributing factor to the price issues 15:45 The problem for Republicans is the economy will get worse, not better 16:30 Price pressures are building across the food supply 16:45 Iran war is causing major issues with the fuel & fertilizer supply 18:00 JP Morgan warns food inflation could reach 5% by 2027 18:30 Kevin Warsh will be forced to raise rates, Trump will be furious 19:00 Trump is only worried about his own personal financial interest 19:45 Fed raising rates to combat inflation will create 1970’s like conditions 20:15 Went to the Black Locust Livestock cattle ranch for Noosphere interview 21:45 Beef prices can’t just be adjusted with the turn of a dial 22:15 Raising cattle is a long term process & our beef herd is historically small 23:00 Trump knows beef prices are hurting him & wanted to import more 24:15 Importing is a short term solution, hurts the long term domestic supply 25:00 Only 4 companies process American beef & we’re losing capacity 25:30 How we can lower beef prices and boost domestic production 26:30 Trump tries to solve price issues in the short term, makes it worse long term 27:00 The price to produce food is rising because of decisions Trump made 27:45 Corporate pre-tax profits are at highest share since aftermath of WW2 28:15 Workers are getting lowest take home share of profits since 1950s 29:00 This is why voters across the spectrum are so pissed off at the system 29:30 There’s no economic boom for most Americans 30:15 Washington continues to misunderstand the anger of the voters 30:45 Trump voters are getting hardest hit by higher gas prices 32:30 Iran war isn’t just making things expensive, it’s making us more vulnerable 33:00 Defense leaders warning Hegseth the Iran war is unsustainable 33:45 Hegseth has put America in more danger than it’s been in since Cold War 34:15 Barely 1/4th of the Navy’s destroyer fleet is ready to deploy 34:45 We’ve burned through most of our advanced munitions 35:15 We’ve worn out our military equipment and personnel 36:00 Fighting this war has made us less capable of fighting the next war 36:30 China has been the biggest winner of Trump’s second term 37:00 What are we no longer willing to do because of the Iran war? 38:00 We’ve spent all this money on the military… and we’re tapped out? 38:30 We should be incredibly concerned about Putin testing NATO 39:15 Putin sees an American president desperate for a win 40:00 Trump announced that we’ve seized Venezuela’s oil reserves 40:45 This feels like British empire style imperialism 42:00 If Putin had done this to another country… what would we call it? 42:30 The standards shouldn’t be different because WE are doing it 43:30 Who is doing this negotiation and who stands to benefit? 44:30 Shouldn’t the windfall from Venezuelan oil benefit Venezuelans? 45:00 Trump is taking Venezuela’s oil at gunpoint, it’s highway robbery 46:00 This is why 2/3rd’s of South America hates the United States 46:30 Trump wants to make America and empire… and the world will hate us 48:00 This compounds America’s credibility problem globally 49:00 The world is only going to hate America & Americans more due to Trump 51:00 Chuck’s high school, Killian is down to 400 students from 3,000 51:45 The kids didn’t disappear, school choice killed ambition to attend there 53:00 Big successful public high schools defined their communities 54:30 Connection between community and schools has broken down 55:00 School choice creates communities not based in their neighborhood 56:00 We haven’t asked “What do we want a public school to do for a community?” 56:45 A public school is central to creating a local community 57:30 We trade choice and specialization, for a community that isn’t forced to interact 59:00 Killian’s community is still a good one, but the character changed 1:00:15 What exactly is public education for? Is it purely for kids' education? 1:01:00 The public school system was a source of our power… and we’ve gutted it 1:01:30 We didn’t try to fix public ed, we tried to empower people to escape it 1:03:45 We created more choices, but did we make education better? 1:05:45 We lost a place where we were forced to get to know each other 1:10:15 Governor Mike DeWine joins the Chuck ToddCast 1:11:30 More comfortable speaking out since not running for office 1:12:45 Mike’s argument against the death penalty 1:13:15 It takes 20 years on average from adjudication to execution 1:13:45 Death penalty process is not able to be sped up 1:15:15 We need to have legal immigrants admitted to America 1:16:30 We were educating immigrants, then not having them stay 1:17:15 Ohio’s economic increases have come from immigrants 1:17:45 Immigrants are critical to caring for our aging population 1:18:30 Can you be pro-life and pro-death penalty? 1:20:15 Putting an emphasis on rehabilitating prisoners 1:21:30 It’s in the self-interest of society to educate inmates 1:22:45 Emotion rather than logic & nuance drives the crime debate 1:23:45 Truly violent criminals are a very small percentage of the population 1:24:15 Violent criminals are the ones you have to get out of society 1:25:30 America goes through pro-immigration and anti-immigration phases 1:26:15 We need people who want to work 1:26:45 Haitians in Springfield created challenges, but they work hard 1:27:45 It’s not in our interest to deport people who are here and working 1:29:00 Haiti is a major challenge 1:32:00 Canada trade war is a problem, they’re a major customer for Ohio 1:33:45 Need a balance between manufacturing here and importing 1:36:00 Is there a divide in Ohio GOP between the two factions? 1:38:45 There used to be major distinctions within the parties 1:39:45 Nationalization of politics has stymied local distinctions within parties 1:40:45 The nationalization is now in everyone’s face everyday 1:43:15 Tech companies need to invest in communities where they put data centers 1:44:00 The data center tech is getting better, don’t have to use as much water 1:45:00 Need to invest in nuclear power in order to power the data center boom 1:45:45 Is Ohio in good hands with Ramaswamy or Acton as governor? 1:47:30 Shutdown decisions during COVID were the governor's choice. Buck stops with him 1:48:30 Is Ohio back to purple state status? 1:49:45 The governor and senate races will go down to the wire 1:50:15 Will this finally be Joe Burrow’s year? 1:52:00 ToddCast Time Machine - The Assassination of William McKinley 1:52:30 Of all presidential assassinations, Americans know the least about this one 1:53:00 The assassin was Leon Czolgosz, an anarchist who felt system was unjust 1:53:45 After McKinley died, Teddy Roosevelt became president 1:54:15 Czolgosz actually produced some of the political change he wanted 1:55:00 Modern America echoes America in 1901 1:56:00 Czolgosz saw political assassinations create change in Europe 1:57:45 Other anarchists thought Czolgosz was too committed, maybe a plant 1:58:15 Emma Goldman argues that societal conditions explain the assassination 1:59:00 When people conclude politics won’t solve problems, they look to alternatives 1:59:45 The assassination happened at a fair showing celebrating technological advances 2:00:30 The United States was emerging as a world power, but there were two Americas 2:01:00 One America saw dynamism, the other saw exploitation 2:01:30 The setting of the assassination was almost poetic 2:02:15 Doctors treating McKinley were too afraid to use new X-ray technology 2:03:15 Lincoln’s son was actually nearby during the assassination 2:03:45 Roosevelt was installed as VP by party bosses to get rid of him 2:04:30 Roosevelt sworn in at age 42, and understood the conditions for political radicalism 2:05:00 Roosevelt argues for the “Square Deal” and goes after concentrated corporate power 2:06:00 The uncomfortable truth: Does assassination provide the sought political change? 2:06:45 Lincoln and JFK’s assassination both changed the political timeline 2:08:00 Czolgosz was convicted and executed weeks after McKinley’s death 2:08:30 Congress passes the Anarchist Exclusion Act, Goldman is deported 2:10:00 The forces that produced Czolgosz weren’t confined to America 2:10:30 Roosevelt’s policies helped prevent a Russian-style revolution 2:11:00 Roosevelt argues capitalism has to be regulated and restrained 2:12:15 America in 2026 isn’t America 1901, but it does rhyme 2:13:15 Ask Chuck 2:13:30 What do you make of James Talarico’s status in Texas? 2:19:30 Thoughts on Project 2025, is it a threat and is Trump following it? 2:21:45 Do you think the Trump administration will still act on Cuba? 2:24:00 Why not make the Attorney General an elected position? 2:27:45 Do you see your political independence as a protest against duopoly? 2:32:00 Takeaways from first week of college footballSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Ohio Governor Mike DeWine joins the Chuck Toddcast in his final months in office and, freed from ever facing voters again, says exactly what he thinks. The headline is his reversal on capital punishment: DeWine helped write Ohio's death penalty statute as a state senator in 1981 and defended it as attorney general, but in June he called on the legislature to abolish it, saying the moral justification he once had simply no longer exists. He walks Chuck through the practical case — roughly 20 years on average from sentencing to execution, a process that structurally cannot be sped up — and the harder question a Republican has to answer about whether you can be both pro-life and pro-death penalty. That flows into a broader argument about criminal justice that DeWine says has been driven by emotion rather than logic: truly violent offenders are a small percentage of the prison population and those are the people who need to be removed from society, but it's in society's direct self-interest to educate and rehabilitate everyone else. He's equally out of step with his party on immigration, arguing America needs legal immigrants, that we've been educating them and then failing to keep them, that Ohio's economic gains have come from immigrants, and that they're critical to caring for an aging population. On Springfield, DeWine is direct: the Haitian population created real challenges for the community, but they work hard, and it is not in America's interest to deport people who are here and working. The conversation turns to the economy and the state's political future. DeWine calls the Canada trade war a genuine problem for Ohio — Canada is a major customer — and argues the country needs a real balance between domestic manufacturing and importing rather than a grudge match. On the data center boom reshaping Ohio politics, he says tech companies have an obligation to invest in the communities they move into, notes the technology has improved and no longer requires as much water, and makes the case that nuclear power is what will actually have to underwrite the buildout. He and Chuck get into whether there's a genuine divide between the two factions of the Ohio GOP, and DeWine offers a thoughtful answer about how the nationalization of politics has flattened the local distinctions that once existed inside both parties — and how that nationalization is now in everyone's face every single day. He takes ownership of the COVID shutdown decisions (the buck stopped with him), assesses whether Ohio is genuinely back to purple status with both the governor and Senate races going down to the wire, weighs in on whether the state is in good hands with either Vivek Ramaswamy or Amy Acton — and, of course, whether this is finally Joe Burrow's year. Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Governor Mike DeWine joins the Chuck ToddCast 01:15 More comfortable speaking out since not running for office 02:30 Mike’s argument against the death penalty 03:00 It takes 20 years on average from adjudication to execution 03:30 Death penalty process is not able to be sped up 05:00 We need to have legal immigrants admitted to America 06:15 We were educating immigrants, then not having them stay 07:00 Ohio’s economic increases have come from immigrants 07:30 Immigrants are critical to caring for our aging population 08:15 Can you be pro-life and pro-death penalty? 10:00 Putting an emphasis on rehabilitating prisoners 11:15 It’s in the self-interest of society to educate inmates 12:30 Emotion rather than logic & nuance drives the crime debate 13:30 Truly violent criminals are a very small percentage of the population 14:00 Violent criminals are the ones you have to get out of society 15:15 America goes through pro-immigration and anti-immigration phases 16:00 We need people who want to work 16:30 Haitians in Springfield created challenges, but they work hard 17:30 It’s not in our interest to deport people who are here and working 18:45 Haiti is a major challenge 21:45 Canada trade war is a problem, they’re a major customer for Ohio 23:30 Need a balance between manufacturing here and importing 25:45 Is there a divide in Ohio GOP between the two factions? 28:30 There used to be major distinctions within the parties 29:30 Nationalization of politics has stymied local distinctions within parties 30:30 The nationalization is now in everyone’s face everyday 33:00 Tech companies need to invest in communities where they put data centers 33:45 The data center tech is getting better, don’t have to use as much water 34:45 Need to invest in nuclear power in order to power the data center boom 35:30 Is Ohio in good hands with Ramaswamy or Acton as governor? 37:15 Shutdown decisions during COVID were the governor's choice. Buck stops with him 38:15 Is Ohio back to purple state status? 39:30 The governor and senate races will go down to the wire 40:00 Will this finally be Joe Burrow’s year?See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Chuck Todd digs into Darline Graham's 52-48 runoff win over Ralph Norman in South Carolina — a result that snapped Trump's ugly endorsement streak but only barely, and only because Trump personally recruited her, endorsed her, flew to Myrtle Beach for a rally, and dropped more than $800,000 in MAGA Inc. money on a race his PAC had sat out all cycle elsewhere. Chuck's read is that Trump clearly still moves Republican primary voters, but that a four-point squeaker for an appointed newcomer carrying one of the most recognizable names in state politics is not the show of strength the White House wanted. Graham inherited Lindsey's negatives with voters without inheriting his positives, remains an amateur candidate prone to gaffes, and may be dragged down further by resentment over how she got the seat in the first place. Against her is Democrat Annie Andrews, a pediatrician with a real organization raising real money — and while no Democrat has won a Senate race in South Carolina since 1998, Chuck asks the honest question about a favorable environment: what's Andrews' actual ceiling, and can 48% be a winning number in a state where the Supreme Court gutting the Voting Rights Act has produced a surge in Black turnout? If the blue wave turns into a tsunami, South Carolina lands on the map. A Graham loss in this environment would be a genuine disaster for Trump. That leads into the broader strategic picture, where Chuck reports Trump met with advisors about how to deploy his enormous war chest — with the advisors trying to keep the midterms from becoming a referendum on him, and Trump insisting MAGA Inc. spend on ads touting his record. It's a plan built on turning out voters who show up only for Trump, which could either backfire badly or, Chuck concedes, prevent a tsunami. The deeper problem is that Trump is being told what he wants to hear: he thinks the economy is great, voters emphatically don't, and charts are meaningless to people staring at their grocery bills. Unlike Obama, who inherited a mess, Trump's central problems — the tariffs and the Iran war — were his own choices, which is why blaming Joe Biden won't land with any credibility. Chuck also notes that conservative media has spent the week obsessing over the WNBA, a classic look-over-here tactic from outlets that can't discuss the cost of living, and observes something genuinely changed about Trump's second-term psychology: more countries and institutions are willing to push back, and people simply aren't as afraid of him anymore. He is appalled by the reported plan to tear down the Kennedy Center — calling it disgusting to want your name on someone else's tombstone, noting the Kennedy Center was doing fine, and marveling that the Justice Department put any of this in writing. He closes with his argument that America no longer has two functional parties: Democrats are paralyzed, the GOP is owned by Trump, both are held together only by fear of the other side's extremes, nearly half the public identifies with neither, and state law now protects the duopoly from competition. We demand more choice everywhere else in life. His pitch: stop protecting the two parties, let them divorce, and let voters build something that actually looks like the country. Then, former Trump White House Communications Director and author of the upcoming book All the Wrong Moves: How Three Catastrophic Decisions Led to the Rise of Trump, Anthony Scaramucci joins the Chuck Toddcast, picking up a conversation the two started in Abu Dhabi just before the Iran war — back when the gulf states were considered one of the safest places on earth. They discuss why America's military industrial complex is badly out of step with modern warfare, and that the circuit running between defense contractors and Washington is why nobody fixes it. He walks through Iran's mosaic defense doctrine and its decentralized command structure, the damage Iranian strikes did to U.S. naval logistics in the Gulf — reporting has traced the USS Abraham Lincoln's resupply crisis back to the destruction of the Navy's main Bahrain hub, which forced operations out to Diego Garcia — and the Pentagon's response to that story, which was to go after the press rather than answer for any of it. Hegseth's Pentagon fired Stars and Stripes publisher Max Lederer, editor-in-chief Erik Slavin, and reporter Lara Korte, citing insubordination months after the department had already forced out the paper's congressionally mandated ombudsman, who sued over it. Firing the journalists at a publication created specifically to give troops independent information is, as Scaramucci frames it, exactly the instinct of an institution that can't withstand scrutiny. The structural problem underneath: a defense industry consolidated down to five giant companies that function like a cartel, operating in a post-Citizens United Washington where corporations reliably get what they want and lobbyists will smother any real reform. We spent enormous sums, he argues, to get embarrassed by Iran — and the countries hosting American bases are quietly concluding it isn't worth it, which means new defense pacts are going to form without the United States in them. From there the conversation widens into competition with China and the fracturing of the western alliance. Scaramucci argues China can plan for the long term in ways America simply doesn't, and that the Pentagon still can't pass an audit with nobody ever held accountable — but he's not a declinist: America's freedoms remain a real advantage over Beijing if the country gets its act together, which is precisely the argument in the op-ed on press freedom that started his rift with Trump, and precisely what the Stars and Stripes firings put at risk. He calls Mark Carney the leader of the western world now, credits Carney with understanding that Trump wants to sever the U.S. from the west, and offers the episode's sharpest line: if Trump were a Putin agent, he'd be getting an A+. On the collapsed Canada trade talks, Scaramucci thinks the dispute gets resolved within a couple of weeks, but he's clear that the Carney path — standing up to Trump directly — is not a path Democrats can simply copy. New coalitions have formed since 2016, and he doesn't see a coalition builder anywhere in the current Democratic Party; Gavin Newsom has been pilloried by conservative media for a decade, and the person capable of assembling something genuinely new may have to come from outside politics altogether. Finally, Chuck presents his ToddCast Top 5 list of 2028 GOP presidential candidates and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. “Pre-order All The Wrong Moves now https://www.scaramucci.net/books Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 05:30 Darline Graham wins South Carolina runoff w/Trump’s endorsement 06:00 Trump clearly has influence over GOP primary voters 06:45 The race was a test of Trump’s political strength & she barely won 08:15 Darline inherited Lindsey’s negatives with voters, but not the positives 09:15 It took Trump & his operation to get Graham over the finish line 09:45 May not be a path for Annie Andrews to win, but can make it close 10:30 In favorable environment for Dems, what is the ceiling for Andrews? 11:30 Can 48% be a winning number for Annie Andrews? 12:00 Graham is still an amateur candidate, prone to gaffes 13:15 SCOTUS gutting the Voting Rights Act has led to surge in black vote 14:30 Some voters may be turned off by Graham being appointed 15:30 Andrews has a strong organization & is raising real money 16:15 If the blue wave is a tsunami… South Carolina may be on the map 17:15 Trump desperately needed a Darline Graham 19:15 Candidates who ran as Trump candidates are pivoting for the general 21:00 A Graham loss in this environment would be a disaster for Trump 22:00 Trump met with advisors to discuss how to use his giant war chest 22:30 Advisors don’t want the midterms to be a referendum on Trump 23:15 Trump wants MAGA Inc to spend on ads touting his record 24:15 Trump is out of touch, told what he wants to hear 25:45 Trump thinks the economy is great, the voters certainly don’t 27:00 Economic charts are meaningless when costs are so high 27:45 Trump is not meeting voters where they are 28:15 While Obama inherited a mess, the problems now are caused by Trump 29:00 The tariffs and Iran war were Trump’s choices 30:00 Playing the “blame Joe Biden” card won’t land with credibility 31:00 The senate map is still pretty friendly territory for Republicans 31:30 Trump’s strategy is to turn out voters that show up for only for him 32:30 This plan could also backfire on Republicans 33:45 The plan could also possibly prevent a potential blue tsunami 34:15 Conservative media has been obsessing over the WNBA 35:00 They can’t talk about the serious issues, focused on culture wars 35:45 It’s an old political “look over here” tactic 36:45 Conservatives want voters focused on WNBA, not cost of living 37:30 Conservative media tries to change the subject, Trump doesn’t 38:00 Trump’s psychology has clearly changed in term two 38:45 More countries and institutions are willing to push back on Trump 39:30 People aren’t as afraid to stand up to Trump now 40:15 If Trump tears down the Kennedy Center, the symbolism would be powerful 40:45 It’s disgusting to want to put your name on someone else’s tombstone 41:30 The Kennedy Center was doing FINE before Trump 42:15 Trump isn’t nearly as much of a “builder” as he claims to be 43:15 Threatening to tear down the Kennedy Center is just appalling 44:30 It’s crazy that the Department of Justice put this in writing 45:00 Don’t have two functional parties, Dems are paralyzed, GOP owned by Trump 46:30 Both parties contain wings with diverging philosophies 47:45 Both parties stay together because they’re afraid of the other sides extremes 48:45 Nearly half the public doesn’t identify with either major party 49:30 Voters identify as independents to register protest with both parties 51:30 The “left” and “right” labels end up doing the thinking for us 52:15 Parties lost regional identities as politics became nationalized 53:45 State law now protects the two political parties from competition 54:30 We should stop protecting the duopoly 56:30 Every race shouldn’t have to collapse into the same two parties 57:00 There is a constituency for a multiparty democracy 58:30 We keep defending a political system that most agree isn’t working 59:45 Everywhere else in life we demand more choice. Just not in politics 1:00:45 Let the parties divorce and then let the voters decide 1:02:30 Politics should be more representative of what we are 1:07:00 Anthony Scaramucci joins The Chuck ToddCast 1:07:45 Last time seeing each other was in Abu Dhabi right before Iran war 1:09:15 Abu Dhabi was one of the safest places in the world pre-war 1:10:45 How much damage has been done to U.S. & gulf state alliance? 1:11:15 Our military industrial complex is out of step with modern warfare 1:12:00 There’s a circuit between defense contractors and D.C. 1:12:30 Iran will end up closer to their Sunni neighbors after the war 1:13:15 Iran’s mosaic defense doctrine created decentralized leadership 1:14:00 Our naval supply depots have been decimated by Iran 1:15:00 Hegseth’s response was to fire reporters who reported the story 1:17:30 Defense industry has been consolidated down to 5 big companies 1:18:30 Those 5 companies act like a monopoly cartel 1:19:15 Since Citizen’s United, corporations get what they want from D.C. 1:20:45 We’ve spent huge sums of money to get embarrassed by Iran 1:22:15 Countries that hosted U.S. bases finding out it’s not worth it 1:23:00 New defense pacts will be formed without the U.S. involved 1:24:00 The lobbyists will get in the way of any attempts at reform 1:26:15 China is able to plan for the long term in a way the U.S. doesn’t 1:27:15 Anthony’s rift with Trump began was op-ed about importance of free press 1:27:45 Our freedoms are advantage over China if we get our act together 1:29:15 China has some advantages over us, but we also have our advantages 1:30:00 Pentagon can’t pass an audit, but nobody holds them accountable 1:30:30 Mark Carney is now the leader of the western world now 1:31:00 Carney understands Trump wants to sever the U.S. from the west 1:31:30 If Trump was a Putin agent… he would get an A+ 1:33:15 The Canada trade deal stalled over dual language packaging 1:35:00 Trade dispute will likely get resolved in the next couple weeks 1:36:15 The Carney path is not a path for the Democrats 1:37:30 New coalitions have been formed since the 2016 election 1:38:15 Don’t see a coalition builder in the current Democratic party 1:39:00 Gavin Newsom has been pilloried by conservative media for a decade 1:40:00 Someone from outside of politics could potentially build a coalition 1:41:00 ToddCast Top 5 2028 GOP Presidential candidates 1:41:45 #1 JD Vance 1:43:15 #2 Marco Rubio 1:46:00 #3 Someone named Trump 1:47:00 #4 Nikki Haley 1:47:30 #5 Rand Paul 1:51:00 Ask Chuck 1:51:30 Thoughts on the long-shot Democratic 2028 candidates? 1:57:00 What would your dream bipartisan ticket look like? 2:00:30 What happened to the ideological principles of both parties? 2:04:15 Could Roger Marshall leave and then just be reappointed? 2:07:00 Are we missing shifts in areas we assume are safely red? 2:11:00 College football previewSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Former Trump White House Communications Director and author of the upcoming book All the Wrong Moves: How Three Catastrophic Decisions Led to the Rise of Trump, Anthony Scaramucci joins the Chuck Toddcast, picking up a conversation the two started in Abu Dhabi just before the Iran war — back when the gulf states were considered one of the safest places on earth. They discuss why America's military industrial complex is badly out of step with modern warfare, and that the circuit running between defense contractors and Washington is why nobody fixes it. He walks through Iran's mosaic defense doctrine and its decentralized command structure, the damage Iranian strikes did to U.S. naval logistics in the Gulf — reporting has traced the USS Abraham Lincoln's resupply crisis back to the destruction of the Navy's main Bahrain hub, which forced operations out to Diego Garcia — and the Pentagon's response to that story, which was to go after the press rather than answer for any of it. Hegseth's Pentagon fired Stars and Stripes publisher Max Lederer, editor-in-chief Erik Slavin, and reporter Lara Korte, citing insubordination months after the department had already forced out the paper's congressionally mandated ombudsman, who sued over it. Firing the journalists at a publication created specifically to give troops independent information is, as Scaramucci frames it, exactly the instinct of an institution that can't withstand scrutiny. The structural problem underneath: a defense industry consolidated down to five giant companies that function like a cartel, operating in a post-Citizens United Washington where corporations reliably get what they want and lobbyists will smother any real reform. We spent enormous sums, he argues, to get embarrassed by Iran — and the countries hosting American bases are quietly concluding it isn't worth it, which means new defense pacts are going to form without the United States in them. From there the conversation widens into competition with China and the fracturing of the western alliance. Scaramucci argues China can plan for the long term in ways America simply doesn't, and that the Pentagon still can't pass an audit with nobody ever held accountable — but he's not a declinist: America's freedoms remain a real advantage over Beijing if the country gets its act together, which is precisely the argument in the op-ed on press freedom that started his rift with Trump, and precisely what the Stars and Stripes firings put at risk. He calls Mark Carney the leader of the western world now, credits Carney with understanding that Trump wants to sever the U.S. from the west, and offers the episode's sharpest line: if Trump were a Putin agent, he'd be getting an A+. On the collapsed Canada trade talks, Scaramucci thinks the dispute gets resolved within a couple of weeks, but he's clear that the Carney path — standing up to Trump directly — is not a path Democrats can simply copy. New coalitions have formed since 2016, and he doesn't see a coalition builder anywhere in the current Democratic Party; Gavin Newsom has been pilloried by conservative media for a decade, and the person capable of assembling something genuinely new may have to come from outside politics altogether. “Pre-order All The Wrong Moves now https://www.scaramucci.net/books Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Anthony Scaramucci joins The Chuck ToddCast 00:45 Last time seeing each other was in Abu Dhabi right before Iran war 02:15 Abu Dhabi was one of the safest places in the world pre-war 03:45 How much damage has been done to U.S. & gulf state alliance? 04:15 Our military industrial complex is out of step with modern warfare 05:00 There’s a circuit between defense contractors and D.C. 05:30 Iran will end up closer to their Sunni neighbors after the war 06:15 Iran’s mosaic defense doctrine created decentralized leadership 07:00 Our naval supply depots have been decimated by Iran 08:00 Hegseth’s response was to fire reporters who reported the story 10:30 Defense industry has been consolidated down to 5 big companies 11:30 Those 5 companies act like a monopoly cartel 12:15 Since Citizen’s United, corporations get what they want from D.C. 13:45 We’ve spent huge sums of money to get embarrassed by Iran 15:15 Countries that hosted U.S. bases finding out it’s not worth it 16:00 New defense pacts will be formed without the U.S. involved 17:00 The lobbyists will get in the way of any attempts at reform 19:15 China is able to plan for the long term in a way the U.S. doesn’t 20:15 Anthony’s rift with Trump began was op-ed about importance of free press 20:45 Our freedoms are advantage over China if we get our act together 22:15 China has some advantages over us, but we also have our advantages 23:00 Pentagon can’t pass an audit, but nobody holds them accountable 23:30 Mark Carney is now the leader of the western world now 24:00 Carney understands Trump wants to sever the U.S. from the west 24:30 If Trump was a Putin agent… he would get an A+ 26:15 The Canada trade deal stalled over dual language packaging 28:00 Trade dispute will likely get resolved in the next couple weeks 29:15 The Carney path is not a path for the Democrats 30:30 New coalitions have been formed since the 2016 election 31:15 Don’t see a coalition builder in the current Democratic party 32:00 Gavin Newsom has been pilloried by conservative media for a decade 33:00 Someone from outside of politics could potentially build a coalitionSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Chuck Todd and J.A. Adande pick up in Part 2 of Alabama football with Bear Bryant’s final chapter and follow the Crimson Tide through decades of dominance, decline and an eventual return to the top. They explore Alabama’s complicated integration story, Bryant’s reinvention of the program with the wishbone offense, and the championships that cemented his place as a college football icon. Then, after Bryant’s death, Alabama begins a turbulent search for the coach who could live up to the impossible standard he left behind. That journey eventually leads to Nick Saban. From the Drew Brees decision that could have changed Saban’s future to the philosophy he developed alongside Bill Belichick, the arrival of Lane Kiffin and the offensive transformation that extended Alabama’s dynasty, Chuck and J.R. break down how Saban built the defining college football program of the modern era. Plus, the Kick Six, the legendary 1992 championship team, Alabama’s greatest players and coaches, and the difficult question facing the Crimson Tide today: What happens after a legend leaves?See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
After last week's Democratic field audit, Chuck Todd and Chris Cillizza turn to the 2028 Republicans — and find a race the markets treat as a two-man affair between JD Vance and Marco Rubio, and one that Chuck thinks is far softer than that looks. His case: no sitting vice president has been denied his party's nomination in the modern era, but Vance sits below 50% in the markets and may be the weakest heir apparent in either man's lifetime, a candidate who has never won anything without Trump carrying him. They dig into why Rubio has kept his hands remarkably clean on the Iran debacle while Vance has ended up owning it, and why Chuck thinks Rubio takes a break, makes money, and waits for 2032. From there they build out the rest of the field: the near-certainty of a Trump family candidate, Sarah Huckabee Sanders as the likeliest VP pick, Joe Lombardo as the pragmatist the party should be building around, Nikki Haley's underrated path, why Tucker Carlson's contrarianism has no Buchanan-style through line, the class of cabinet officials convinced they can do this — and a genuine, surprising case for Rand Paul as the one candidate who could credibly run against Trump's tariffs and Iran war without being an anti-Trumper. The second half is a brutal accounting of Trump's August. With Canada moving to retaliate after the administration began enforcing 50% tariffs on a slate of Canadian goods and Mark Carney declaring his country "at war," and a temporary waiver on tariffs for 300,000 metric tons of imported ground beef drawing pushback from ranchers, Chuck argues Trump has become the single most effective partner Chuck Schumer has — turning Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, and South Dakota into live races and making life impossible for Collins, Rogers, Hinson, and Husted. They walk through the Arkansas poll showing Tom Cotton in a real race, why they think Republicans have already wasted their financial advantage, and Trump's insistence he deserves a perfect grade on the economy. Then they preview Tuesday's high-stakes South Carolina runoff between Darline Graham and Ralph Norman — a race Trump has personally invested in, with a striking stat about appointed senators in the South — before closing on the Nats' collapse and a hard look at how the front office handled CJ Abrams. Timeline: 00:00 Last week was the Democrats — today it's the 2028 Republican field 00:40 The markets read it as a two-man race: Vance 47%, Rubio 20% 00:57 Who else clears 3%: Tucker, Trump Sr., DeSantis, Don Jr. 01:35 History says the sitting VP gets it 02:51 Vance reminds Chuck of Kamala Harris 03:19 A frontrunner with no positive track record to point to 04:05 Vance probably isn't even a senator without Trump 04:51 How much of Vance's weakness is actually Trump's decline? 06:26 If Trump loses the House and Senate, the field blows open 07:28 Why a Trump family candidacy isn't a 0% proposition 08:03 Ivanka as heir apparent? The Don Jr. vs. Eric assumption 08:44 Rubio: does he run, or take the VP slot? 10:07 Hegseth as McNamara, and Vance owning a war he questioned 10:48 How has Rubio kept his hands this clean? 12:42 The one cabinet member with no visible pay-for-play story 13:13 Chuck's prediction: Rubio sits it out, runs in 2032 14:21 Who else? A Hawley or Cotton as Trumpism 2.0 14:48 Sarah Huckabee Sanders as the most likely VP pick 15:24 Youngkin's problem, and the Huntsman-Kasich empathy lane 16:17 Spencer Cox and the never-Trump ceiling 17:59 How the war with Canada gutted the Las Vegas economy 19:30 Can a Jim Banks run against Vance? 20:42 Brian Kemp passed on the Senate to look at 2028 21:24 What do Republican primary voters even want after a wipeout? 22:11 Are we underwriting Nikki Haley? 23:45 What to make of Tucker Carlson's ten-point plan 25:37 MTG, Massie & the America First lane 27:12 Why Never Trumpers overrate his constituency 28:40 The cabinet members who all think they'll be president 30:09 The Portnoy/Cuban outsider slot 31:19 The one advantage — Vance runs the RNC's fundraising operation 34:06 The real problem for Rand Paul: he isn't likable 35:02 Tariffs and Iran — Trump's two great failures, and Paul opposed both 36:27 Under 1% on the board: the dark-horse buy 36:51 To Trump: a trade war with Canada, and more sanctions on Iran 38:20 The beef decision and what it does to midwest states 39:05 Why the Canada fight hits Vegas and Orlando hardest 40:21 Has Trump found a floor lower than Bush's? 41:41 The Arkansas poll putting Tom Cotton in a real race 42:03 Reading the methodology honestly 43:18 Donald Trump has declared war on rural America 44:55 Trump says he deserves 100% on the economy 46:22 Republicans wasted their financial advantage 47:59 Tuesday night preview: the Graham-Norman runoff 48:40 Trump calls in, rallies in Myrtle Beach t 50:16 Appointed senators survive at 44% in the South vs. 81% elsewhere 52:26 Trump's endorsement record & why he wants to reassert dominance 53:27 What a Graham loss would mean for Hinson and Husted 54:41 Why Collins doesn't want Trump in Maine 57:02 Vance as a cipher — from near-primary-loss to vice president 59:37 What has JD Vance actually done? 1:00:45 The Nats get swept by the Marlins 1:05:04 How you actually screw up a team 1:06:23 Where this front office is genuinely excellent 1:07:48 It's still a people business, just like politicsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Chuck Todd opens with the collapse of U.S.-Canada trade talks, where Mark Carney walked away after last-minute American demands — chiefly on mid- and heavy-duty truck tariffs — and declared the U.S. can't be trusted as a partner. Asked about the tone of his remarks, Carney's answer was blunt: you are at war when you get attacked. Chuck notes the whole western world is quietly cheering him on even as individual European leaders push back while the EU took its deal, and argues the real problem is that this administration isn't negotiating with one voice. The fallout lands squarely on Senate battlegrounds, forcing Susan Collins to speak out against her own party's trade war. Then there's beef: Trump's move to let in 300,000 metric tons of tariff-free ground beef drew immediate fire from cattle groups and Republicans including Ashley Hinson and Tim Sheehy, and Chuck argues it's a tacit admission that the tariff regime is raising prices. Battleground states account for two-thirds of American cattle ranching, Iowa becomes the bellwether, and Trump is single-handedly making safe races competitive — while Scott Bessent defends the indefensible, calling tariff refunds corporate welfare and arguing the country needs fewer jobs because of deportations, all as the national debt clears $40 trillion. Then Chuck highlights that polling between July 4th and Labor Day is largely wasted money, the August electorate isn't the November electorate, polling has gotten cheaper and worse, and polling averages deserve real skepticism. Arkansas is the case study — five Senate polls, four poorly done, and the one that got everyone's attention showing Tom Cotton in trouble had bad methodology. Chuck’s landing: don't buy the poll, but Cotton may be in some trouble anyway, because he's an old-school hawk who championed war with Iran in a state where Trump commands more personal loyalty than he does. He won't lose, but the margin could surprise. Chuck also flags red flags in Byron Donalds' northern Florida margins, argues the USS Abraham Lincoln reporting exposed a credibility crisis at a Pentagon where Hegseth treats accurate reporting as a personal threat, and warns it'll take decades for either the Pentagon or DOJ to recover. Plus: an NRSC memo declaring data center politics toxic, Mike Rogers keeping AIPAC out of Michigan while El-Sayed argues outside money shouldn't buy the state's politics, and Hakeem Jeffries meeting privately with Jared Kushner — which Chuck defends outright, because communication isn't betrayal even when the base wants confrontation. He closes on the question underneath the ToddCast's Lakers special report: with private credit over $1.5 trillion and life insurers holding roughly $900 billion of it, is Mark Walter an outlier or the canary in the coal mine? Chuck’s answer is that he isn't an outlier at all — this is how the machine works now, in a corner of finance where no single regulator can see the whole picture and where the real worry may be inflated valuations. Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit Harry Truman nationalizing the railroad system… and why emergency presidential powers need to be taken back by congress. He also answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 03:00 Noosphere interview this week is on China shock 2.0 05:00 Dynastic this week is on Alabama football 07:00 A couple shout outs from Chuck 11:00 Trade talks between U.S. and Canada collapse 11:30 Mark Carney says the US can’t be trusted as a partner 12:30 Carney says U.S. fired the first shot in trade war with Canada 13:45 Carney doesn’t want Canada subservient to U.S. & will diversify 15:00 European leaders are individually pushing back, but EU took the deal 16:00 The whole western world is cheering on Mark Carney 18:00 We were close to a trade deal, then U.S. added new demands 19:00 Howard Lutnick got involved and created new problems 20:15 The Trump administration isn’t negotiating with one voice 21:15 All the senate battleground races are impacted by Canada trade war 22:30 These aren’t trivial trade relationships with Canada 23:00 Susan Collins is being forced to speak out against trade war 24:30 Trump is now creating a fight with the beef & cattle industry 25:15 Importing cheap foreign beef is admission tariff regime hurts consumers 26:00 Trump will hurt American cattle producers by importing beef 26:45 Battleground states account for 2/3rds of cattle ranching 27:45 This could make uncompetitive elections very competitive 28:15 Iowa will be the bellwether for Trump’s policies impacting ag states 29:15 Trump is actively hurting Republicans in ag heavy states 30:00 Scott Bessent is forced to say the stupidest things to defend Trump 30:30 Bessent is now saying tariff refunds are corporate welfare 31:30 Bessent says we don’t need as many jobs due to deportations 32:15 Bessent is trying to manipulate the bond market prior to midterms 33:15 National debt surpassed 40 trillion dollars, both sides point fingers 34:00 We’re going to have to deal with the debt sooner rather than later 35:00 It’s a waste of money to poll between July 4th and Labor Day 35:45 The electorate in August isn’t the same as the electorate in November 37:00 Polling has gotten cheaper… and worse 38:00 Be wary of indiscriminate polling averages 40:00 Arkansas has had 5 senate polls and 4 were poorly done 41:00 Arkansas poll got everyone’s attention, showed Cotton in trouble 42:30 The methodology of the poll was bad & limited 43:45 Don’t buy the poll, but Tom Cotton actually may be in trouble 44:30 Cotton is an old-school hawk, a champion of war with Iran 45:00 Trump has more personal loyalty in Arkansas than Cotton 45:45 Cotton won’t lose, but the margin may be surprisingly close 47:15 Examination of Bryon Donald's margins showed red flags 47:45 Donalds didn’t perform well in northern Florida counties 48:30 Base voters were motivated enough to go vote against him 49:00 USS Abraham Lincoln has revealed a credibility problem with DoD 49:30 Stars & Stripes was created to give troops access to independent info 50:00 Hegseth viewed accurate reporting as a threat to himself 50:30 Hegseth more worried about a presidential run than the troops 51:15 Can’t trust either the Justice Department or the Pentagon 52:00 It will take decades for either institution to regain credibility 53:30 NRSC put out memo saying data center politics are toxic 54:15 Messaging is to “let communities decide” 54:45 Data centers are the beginning of backlash against tech & AI 55:30 Mark Zuckerberg is only tech CEO who understands the backlash 56:00 Mike Rodgers doesn’t want AIPAC publicly involved in Michigan race 56:45 El-Sayed’s argument is outside interests shouldn’t purchase MI politics 57:30 Plenty of American jews support Israel, but not Netanyahu’s government 58:30 Hakeem Jeffries met privately with Jared Kushner 59:00 This meeting shows the Trump WH preparing for Speaker Jeffries 59:30 Jeffries in impossible position, base wants confrontation with Trump 1:00:30 Jeffries and Kushner SHOULD be talking, communication isn’t betrayal 1:01:45 Is Mark Walter an outlier, or the canary in the coal mine? 1:02:15 After financial crisis, government cracked down on banks 1:02:45 US private credit is now over $1.5 trillion dollar 1:03:30 Life insurance companies have become banks for the ultra wealthy 1:04:30 LIfe insurance companies can operate very differently 1:05:45 You can’t just pull your money out of a life insurance company 1:07:00 The incentives between investment firm & policyholder may not align 1:08:15 Life insurance companies hold $900B in private credit debt 1:08:45 Mark Walter isn’t an outlier, this is how the machine works 1:09:30 If a life insurance company fails, your money can be frozen 1:10:30 There are caps on policyholder protection 1:11:00 Executive Life failed when the junk bond market crashed 1:11:45 Executive Life bonds were bought by Leon Black, who founded Apollo 1:12:15 Insurance isn’t regulated by one agency, it’s multiple agencies and states 1:13:30 Regulators can’t get the picture of the entire machine, just pieces of it 1:14:15 Finance regulators have been siloed off from each other 1:15:45 The real worry here could be inflated valuations 1:20:00 ToddCast Time Machine - 1950, Truman seizes the nation’s railroads 1:20:45 Private rail was the primary transportation system at the time 1:21:15 Congress had given the president the tool to do this 1:22:00 The authority was used during WW1 and WW2 1:22:30 Truman wanted to draft striking rail workers into the military 1:23:00 The strike was settled while Truman was addressing congress 1:23:30 Railroad seizure became routine in the Truman administration 1:24:30 Truman decided country couldn’t risk rail strike during Korean War 1:25:45 Truman’s authority was never really challenged 1:26:15 The rail workers unions couldn’t stop workers from walking off the job 1:27:00 In April 1952 steelworkers were threatening to strike 1:28:30 Steel industry sued Truman and won after he tried to seize it 1:29:00 Rail seizure power was granted by congress, not for steel 1:30:45 Future presidents tried to use this same authority, didn’t always work 1:31:15 Congress needs to take back emergency powers after granting them 1:32:45 Could a future president try to use this power to seize the AI industry? 1:34:30 The lesson is how presidents accumulate power over time 1:35:15 Ask Chuck 1:35:30 Parallels between Natalie Harp and Isabel Lyon? 1:39:45 What gives you pause about Mark Kelly as a candidate? 1:43:30 Could a Democratic wave election change smaller local politics? 1:46:15 What is motivating Darline Graham to run for a full term?See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Chuck Todd opens with the collapse of U.S.-Canada trade talks, where Mark Carney walked away after last-minute American demands — chiefly on mid- and heavy-duty truck tariffs — and declared the U.S. can't be trusted as a partner. Asked about the tone of his remarks, Carney's answer was blunt: you are at war when you get attacked. Chuck notes the whole western world is quietly cheering him on even as individual European leaders push back while the EU took its deal, and argues the real problem is that this administration isn't negotiating with one voice. The fallout lands squarely on Senate battlegrounds, forcing Susan Collins to speak out against her own party's trade war. Then there's beef: Trump's move to let in 300,000 metric tons of tariff-free ground beef drew immediate fire from cattle groups and Republicans including Ashley Hinson and Tim Sheehy, and Chuck argues it's a tacit admission that the tariff regime is raising prices. Battleground states account for two-thirds of American cattle ranching, Iowa becomes the bellwether, and Trump is single-handedly making safe races competitive — while Scott Bessent defends the indefensible, calling tariff refunds corporate welfare and arguing the country needs fewer jobs because of deportations, all as the national debt clears $40 trillion. Then Chuck highlights that polling between July 4th and Labor Day is largely wasted money, the August electorate isn't the November electorate, polling has gotten cheaper and worse, and polling averages deserve real skepticism. Arkansas is the case study — five Senate polls, four poorly done, and the one that got everyone's attention showing Tom Cotton in trouble had bad methodology. Chuck’s landing: don't buy the poll, but Cotton may be in some trouble anyway, because he's an old-school hawk who championed war with Iran in a state where Trump commands more personal loyalty than he does. He won't lose, but the margin could surprise. Chuck also flags red flags in Byron Donalds' northern Florida margins, argues the USS Abraham Lincoln reporting exposed a credibility crisis at a Pentagon where Hegseth treats accurate reporting as a personal threat, and warns it'll take decades for either the Pentagon or DOJ to recover. Plus: an NRSC memo declaring data center politics toxic, Mike Rogers keeping AIPAC out of Michigan while El-Sayed argues outside money shouldn't buy the state's politics, and Hakeem Jeffries meeting privately with Jared Kushner — which Chuck defends outright, because communication isn't betrayal even when the base wants confrontation. He closes on the question underneath the ToddCast's Lakers special report: with private credit over $1.5 trillion and life insurers holding roughly $900 billion of it, is Mark Walter an outlier or the canary in the coal mine? Chuck’s answer is that he isn't an outlier at all — this is how the machine works now, in a corner of finance where no single regulator can see the whole picture and where the real worry may be inflated valuations. Then, former Ohio Governor and presidential candidate John Kasich joins the Chuck Toddcast for a wide-ranging conversation that keeps returning to one uncomfortable diagnosis: Americans say they want the political middle and then retreat to their partisan corners the moment it counts. Kasich's read on this cycle is bracing coming from a Republican — the democratic socialists are talking about things voters actually care about, while moderate Democrats have stayed conspicuously quiet, which is exactly why the left has struck a nerve. On the data center backlash, Kasich has a straightforward answer — make them provide their own power — and points out that Ohio ratepayers are already footing higher bills for facilities located in Virginia. He's blunt that politicians are beholden to special interests before they're even sworn in, supports public financing of elections, and warns that neither the center-right nor center-left is producing genuinely interesting solutions to anything, least of all a national debt he says is going to hurt everybody if it isn't addressed. Kasich also addresses recent concerns with the Pentagon, where he brings real budget-committee experience to a question few politicians take seriously: what exactly are we getting for a defense budget this size? He argues Pentagon leadership is deeply resistant to change, that America isn't developing new systems and technology well, that only about 1% of defense dollars go toward new systems, and that we simply don't need this many nuclear weapons — one alone, as he puts it, will ruin your day. He uses the B-2 bomber, built with parts manufactured across a strategically chosen array of states, to explain why reform is so brutally hard, while insisting it remains possible with the right political leadership. From there the conversation widens into Kasich's argument that moderates have historically been the bulwark against the extremes, that outside forces are often what actually force change , and that people outside both parties are about to turn hard on the tech companies. He wonders aloud whether a backlash to private equity could become a genuine threat to capitalism itself — pointing to private equity buying up youth sports to raise prices, and to firms that can effectively choose which regulators they deal with. Kasich closes with Ohio: whether the state is genuinely purple again or just having a bad Republican year, why he thinks it drifts back toward swing status over time, why the Senate race is too close to call, and whether Amy Acton or Vivek Ramaswamy faces the harder barrier to winning the governorship. Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit Harry Truman nationalizing the railroad system… and why emergency presidential powers need to be taken back by congress. He also answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 03:00 Noosphere interview this week is on China shock 2.0 05:00 Dynastic this week is on Alabama football 07:00 A couple shout outs from Chuck 11:00 Trade talks between U.S. and Canada collapse 11:30 Mark Carney says the US can’t be trusted as a partner 12:30 Carney says U.S. fired the first shot in trade war with Canada 13:45 Carney doesn’t want Canada subservient to U.S. & will diversify 15:00 European leaders are individually pushing back, but EU took the deal 16:00 The whole western world is cheering on Mark Carney 18:00 We were close to a trade deal, then U.S. added new demands 19:00 Howard Lutnick got involved and created new problems 20:15 The Trump administration isn’t negotiating with one voice 21:15 All the senate battleground races are impacted by Canada trade war 22:30 These aren’t trivial trade relationships with Canada 23:00 Susan Collins is being forced to speak out against trade war 24:30 Trump is now creating a fight with the beef & cattle industry 25:15 Importing cheap foreign beef is admission tariff regime hurts consumers 26:00 Trump will hurt American cattle producers by importing beef 26:45 Battleground states account for 2/3rds of cattle ranching 27:45 This could make uncompetitive elections very competitive 28:15 Iowa will be the bellwether for Trump’s policies impacting ag states 29:15 Trump is actively hurting Republicans in ag heavy states 30:00 Scott Bessent is forced to say the stupidest things to defend Trump 30:30 Bessent is now saying tariff refunds are corporate welfare 31:30 Bessent says we don’t need as many jobs due to deportations 32:15 Bessent is trying to manipulate the bond market prior to midterms 33:15 National debt surpassed 40 trillion dollars, both sides point fingers 34:00 We’re going to have to deal with the debt sooner rather than later 35:00 It’s a waste of money to poll between July 4th and Labor Day 35:45 The electorate in August isn’t the same as the electorate in November 37:00 Polling has gotten cheaper… and worse 38:00 Be wary of indiscriminate polling averages 40:00 Arkansas has had 5 senate polls and 4 were poorly done 41:00 Arkansas poll got everyone’s attention, showed Cotton in trouble 42:30 The methodology of the poll was bad & limited 43:45 Don’t buy the poll, but Tom Cotton actually may be in trouble 44:30 Cotton is an old-school hawk, a champion of war with Iran 45:00 Trump has more personal loyalty in Arkansas than Cotton 45:45 Cotton won’t lose, but the margin may be surprisingly close 47:15 Examination of Bryon Donald's margins showed red flags 47:45 Donalds didn’t perform well in northern Florida counties 48:30 Base voters were motivated enough to go vote against him 49:00 USS Abraham Lincoln has revealed a credibility problem with DoD 49:30 Stars & Stripes was created to give troops access to independent info 50:00 Hegseth viewed accurate reporting as a threat to himself 50:30 Hegseth more worried about a presidential run than the troops 51:15 Can’t trust either the Justice Department or the Pentagon 52:00 It will take decades for either institution to regain credibility 53:30 NRSC put out memo saying data center politics are toxic 54:15 Messaging is to “let communities decide” 54:45 Data centers are the beginning of backlash against tech & AI 55:30 Mark Zuckerberg is only tech CEO who understands the backlash 56:00 Mike Rodgers doesn’t want AIPAC publicly involved in Michigan race 56:45 El-Sayed’s argument is outside interests shouldn’t purchase MI politics 57:30 Plenty of American jews support Israel, but not Netanyahu’s government 58:30 Hakeem Jeffries met privately with Jared Kushner 59:00 This meeting shows the Trump WH preparing for Speaker Jeffries 59:30 Jeffries in impossible position, base wants confrontation with Trump 1:00:30 Jeffries and Kushner SHOULD be talking, communication isn’t betrayal 1:01:45 Is Mark Walter an outlier, or the canary in the coal mine? 1:02:15 After financial crisis, government cracked down on banks 1:02:45 US private credit is now over $1.5 trillion dollar 1:03:30 Life insurance companies have become banks for the ultra wealthy 1:04:30 LIfe insurance companies can operate very differently 1:05:45 You can’t just pull your money out of a life insurance company 1:07:00 The incentives between investment firm & policyholder may not align 1:08:15 Life insurance companies hold $900B in private credit debt 1:08:45 Mark Walter isn’t an outlier, this is how the machine works 1:09:30 If a life insurance company fails, your money can be frozen 1:10:30 There are caps on policyholder protection 1:11:00 Executive Life failed when the junk bond market crashed 1:11:45 Executive Life bonds were bought by Leon Black, who founded Apollo 1:12:15 Insurance isn’t regulated by one agency, it’s multiple agencies and states 1:13:30 Regulators can’t get the picture of the entire machine, just pieces of it 1:14:15 Finance regulators have been siloed off from each other 1:15:45 The real worry here could be inflated valuations 1:21:30 John Kasich joins the Chuck ToddCast 1:23:45 People say they want the middle, then retreat to partisan corners 1:25:00 Voters keep rejecting the party in power 1:27:15 It took six presidential elections to get beyond Lincoln 1:28:15 Democratic socialists are talking about things voters care about 1:29:00 Moderate Dems are staying quiet while socialists have struck a nerve 1:32:30 Rent control doesn’t work, but sounds appealing to voters in NYC 1:33:30 The healthcare system doesn’t keep us healthy, only treats the sick 1:35:00 Healthcare and education have atrophied over the years 1:36:30 Competition drives change in education, teachers union doesn’t want change 1:37:45 How would you handle the public backlash to data centers and big tech? 1:38:15 Data centers should be forced to provide their own power 1:38:45 Customers in Ohio are paying higher rates for data centers in Virginia 1:40:00 Politicians are beholden to special interests before they’re sworn in 1:40:15 Support public financing for elections 1:41:30 The center right & left aren’t coming up with interesting solutions 1:43:00 If we don’t fix the national debt it’s going to hurt everybody 1:44:30 What are we getting from our massive military budget? 1:45:15 Pentagon leaders are highly resistant to change 1:47:00 We aren’t developing new systems & tech well 1:47:30 Only 1% of the defense dollars go to new systems 1:48:30 Don’t need this many nukes, one alone will ruin your day 1:49:15 Trying to change the Pentagon is incredibly difficult 1:49:45 B2 bomber was built with parts all manufactured in different states 1:51:00 It is possible for the Pentagon to be reformed with right political leadership 1:53:30 Moderates have served as the bulwark against the extremes 1:54:15 Who are leaders from the past who electrified the country? 1:56:30 Bill Clinton isn’t a budget balancer without Ross Perot 1:58:00 Ralph Nader also forced change from the outside 1:59:30 People outside the parties will start turning on the tech companies 2:01:15 Could backlash to private equity become a threat to capitalism? 2:01:45 Private equity is now buying up youth sports to raise prices? 2:04:45 Ohio went from #47 to #1 by hiring smart business investors 2:06:15 Private equity can pick the regulators they want to deal with 2:08:00 Is Ohio purple again or is this just a bad year for Republicans? 2:08:30 Over time, Ohio will naturally drift back to swing status 2:09:30 Ohio senate is too close to call 2:12:00 Harder barrier to break: Amy Acton or Vivek Ramaswamy? 2:13:15 Ramaswamy will run into friction with Ohio voters due to his race 2:14:45 Would still bet that Ramaswamy will win 2:16:00 There’s a formula to what makes a good leader 2:17:30 Rural communities are being devastated by drugs & homelessness 2:18:15 There is abject poverty in appalachia 2:19:15 What young leaders have impressed you in the past couple years? 2:21:45 Predictions for Miami’s upcoming football season 2:23:30 Check out the John Kasich Show on SiriusXM 2:25:00 ToddCast Time Machine - 1950, Truman seizes the nation’s railroads 2:25:45 Private rail was the primary transportation system at the time 2:26:15 Congress had given the president the tool to do this 2:27:00 The authority was used during WW1 and WW2 2:27:30 Truman wanted to draft striking rail workers into the military 2:28:00 The strike was settled while Truman was addressing congress 2:28:30 Railroad seizure became routine in the Truman administration 2:29:30 Truman decided country couldn’t risk rail strike during Korean War 2:30:45 Truman’s authority was never really challenged 2:31:15 The rail workers unions couldn’t stop workers from walking off the job 2:32:00 In April 1952 steelworkers were threatening to strike 2:33:30 Steel industry sued Truman and won after he tried to seize it 2:34:00 Rail seizure power was granted by congress, not for steel 2:35:45 Future presidents tried to use this same authority, didn’t always work 2:36:15 Congress needs to take back emergency powers after granting them 2:37:45 Could a future president try to use this power to seize the AI industry? 2:39:30 The lesson is how presidents accumulate power over time 2:40:15 Ask Chuck 2:40:30 Parallels between Natalie Harp and Isabel Lyon? 2:44:45 What gives you pause about Mark Kelly as a candidate? 2:48:30 Could a Democratic wave election change smaller local politics? 2:51:15 What is motivating Darline Graham to run for a full term?See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Former Ohio Governor and presidential candidate John Kasich joins the Chuck Toddcast for a wide-ranging conversation that keeps returning to one uncomfortable diagnosis: Americans say they want the political middle and then retreat to their partisan corners the moment it counts. Kasich's read on this cycle is bracing coming from a Republican — the democratic socialists are talking about things voters actually care about, while moderate Democrats have stayed conspicuously quiet, which is exactly why the left has struck a nerve. On the data center backlash, Kasich has a straightforward answer — make them provide their own power — and points out that Ohio ratepayers are already footing higher bills for facilities located in Virginia. He's blunt that politicians are beholden to special interests before they're even sworn in, supports public financing of elections, and warns that neither the center-right nor center-left is producing genuinely interesting solutions to anything, least of all a national debt he says is going to hurt everybody if it isn't addressed. Kasich also addresses recent concerns with the Pentagon, where he brings real budget-committee experience to a question few politicians take seriously: what exactly are we getting for a defense budget this size? He argues Pentagon leadership is deeply resistant to change, that America isn't developing new systems and technology well, that only about 1% of defense dollars go toward new systems, and that we simply don't need this many nuclear weapons — one alone, as he puts it, will ruin your day. He uses the B-2 bomber, built with parts manufactured across a strategically chosen array of states, to explain why reform is so brutally hard, while insisting it remains possible with the right political leadership. From there the conversation widens into Kasich's argument that moderates have historically been the bulwark against the extremes, that outside forces are often what actually force change , and that people outside both parties are about to turn hard on the tech companies. He wonders aloud whether a backlash to private equity could become a genuine threat to capitalism itself — pointing to private equity buying up youth sports to raise prices, and to firms that can effectively choose which regulators they deal with. Kasich closes with Ohio: whether the state is genuinely purple again or just having a bad Republican year, why he thinks it drifts back toward swing status over time, why the Senate race is too close to call, and whether Amy Acton or Vivek Ramaswamy faces the harder barrier to winning the governorship. Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 John Kasich joins the Chuck ToddCast 02:15 People say they want the middle, then retreat to partisan corners 03:30 Voters keep rejecting the party in power 05:45 It took six presidential elections to get beyond Lincoln 06:45 Democratic socialists are talking about things voters care about 07:30 Moderate Dems are staying quiet while socialists have struck a nerve 11:00 Rent control doesn’t work, but sounds appealing to voters in NYC 12:00 The healthcare system doesn’t keep us healthy, only treats the sick 13:30 Healthcare and education have atrophied over the years 15:00 Competition drives change in education, teachers union doesn’t want change 16:15 How would you handle the public backlash to data centers and big tech? 16:45 Data centers should be forced to provide their own power 17:15 Customers in Ohio are paying higher rates for data centers in Virginia 18:30 Politicians are beholden to special interests before they’re sworn in 18:45 Support public financing for elections 20:00 The center right & left aren’t coming up with interesting solutions 21:30 If we don’t fix the national debt it’s going to hurt everybody 23:00 What are we getting from our massive military budget? 23:45 Pentagon leaders are highly resistant to change 25:30 We aren’t developing new systems & tech well 26:00 Only 1% of the defense dollars go to new systems 27:00 Don’t need this many nukes, one alone will ruin your day 27:45 Trying to change the Pentagon is incredibly difficult 28:15 B2 bomber was built with parts all manufactured in different states 29:30 It is possible for the Pentagon to be reformed with right political leadership 32:00 Moderates have served as the bulwark against the extremes 32:45 Who are leaders from the past who electrified the country? 35:00 Bill Clinton isn’t a budget balancer without Ross Perot 36:30 Ralph Nader also forced change from the outside 38:00 People outside the parties will start turning on the tech companies 39:45 Could backlash to private equity become a threat to capitalism? 40:15 Private equity is now buying up youth sports to raise prices? 43:15 Ohio went from #47 to #1 by hiring smart business investors 44:45 Private equity can pick the regulators they want to deal with 46:30 Is Ohio purple again or is this just a bad year for Republicans? 47:00 Over time, Ohio will naturally drift back to swing status 48:00 Ohio senate is too close to call 50:30 Harder barrier to break: Amy Acton or Vivek Ramaswamy? 51:45 Ramaswamy will run into friction with Ohio voters due to his race 53:15 Would still bet that Ramaswamy will win 54:30 There’s a formula to what makes a good leader 56:00 Rural communities are being devastated by drugs & homelessness 56:45 There is abject poverty in appalachia 57:45 What young leaders have impressed you in the past couple years? 1:00:15 Predictions for Miami’s upcoming football season 1:02:00 Check out the John Kasich Show on SiriusXMSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Chuck Todd closes the book on primary season with Florida — and leads with the stunning upset that ended it. State Rep. Angie Nixon, a Jacksonville former union organizer and Democratic Socialists of America member, beat Alex Vindman with 56% of the vote despite being outraised roughly 16-to-1, and will now face appointed Republican Sen. Ashley Moody in November for the final two years of Marco Rubio's old seat. Chuck’s read is that this wasn't a movement election so much as a performance gap: Vindman ran like the presumptive nominee, hoarded his money for a general election he never reached, and got flatly outworked with primary voters. He's curious what Vindman does with that war chest, and notes Vindman's whole profile felt like first-term Trump resistance in a cycle that's moved on. Elsewhere in Florida: Debbie Wasserman Schultz won in a majority-Black district, Cory Mills lost his primary, Republican turnout meaningfully outpaced Democratic turnout in Florida, and Chuck thinks it's improbable but not impossible for David Jolly to beat Byron Donalds in the governor's race. But the bigger story is national, and it's about turnout as a tea leaf. More Trump-endorsed candidates went down, part of a trend Chuck argues shows Trump's relevance melting away as his approval drops — and that he's actively making things harder for his own party. Democrats cast 57% of primary ballots nationally, up from 54% in 2018, with the biggest jump in Alabama and double-digit increases across multiple states. Chuck is careful with the caveat: primary turnout is a thermometer, not a crystal ball — it tells you where your floor is, not your ceiling. Texas Democratic turnout rose even with marquee Republican races on the ballot, Kansas Republican turnout cratered (though Democrats still have work to do there), and Florida Democrats hemorrhaged voters to no-party affiliation — meaning you can see something real happening in Texas that simply isn't happening in Florida. His bottom line: Democrats will win more votes in November, and history says they win the midterms. The open question is whether they can take both chambers. Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit the 72 year struggle of the women’s suffrage movement before achieving the ratification of the 19th amendment, presents his ToddCast Top 5 list of Democratic Presidential hopefuls who will work the hardest to win the nomination and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. Upgrade your everyday. Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 01:30 Don’t miss the Toddcast Special Report on the Lakers sale 06:30 Primary season is basically wrapped up after Florida 07:45 Raw primary turnout is a good tealeaf to read ahead of midterms 09:00 Democratic voters have been more enthusiastic w/ higher turnout 09:30 Alex Vindman loses Florida senate primary to Angie Nixon 10:30 Vindman ran his race like he was the presumptive nominee 11:00 Nixon just outworked Vindman with primary voters 11:30 Vindman hoarded his money for the general 12:30 This wasn’t a movement election, Nixon just performed 13:15 The importance of the African-American vote in Dem primaries 15:15 Need to live in Florida for more than a couple years to run successfully 15:45 Most of the carpetbagger candidates lost their primaries 16:30 Will be interesting to see what Vindman does with his war chest 18:00 Voters care if you are of/from their community 20:00 Vindman felt like first-term Trump resistance 21:00 It’s improbable but not impossible for David Jolly to beat Byron Donalds 22:15 Florida Republican turnout was much higher than Dems 23:45 Debbie Wasserman Schultz won in majority black district 24:45 Cory Mills loses his primary 25:30 More Trump endorsed candidates lost their primaries 27:15 Trump backed candidates losing has become a trend 27:45 Trump is going out of his way to make it harder for Republicans 28:30 Trump’s relevance is melting away as his approval drops 31:45 Democratic electorate is expanding in most competitive states 32:15 Primary turnout is a thermometer, not a crystal ball 32:45 Turnout tells you where your floor is, not the ceiling 34:30 Democrats outperformed their primary edge in the general in 2018 36:00 Democrats cast 57% of primary ballots, compared to 54% in ‘18 37:00 Biggest jump in Dem turnout was in Alabama 37:45 Multiple states with Democrat turnout up double digits 39:45 Alabama’s governor race may be very competitive 42:30 Texas Dem turnout was higher even with marquee GOP races 43:45 Florida Dems lost voters to a no party affiliation 44:30 You can see something happening in Texas, not in Florida 45:30 Republican turnout was way down in Kansas 47:15 Dems probably still have more work to do in Kansas 48:00 Dems will win more votes in November,48:45 History says Dems win the midterms, but can they win both chambers? 52:15 ToddCast Time Machine moved due to Lakers deep dive special 53:45 The movement for women’s suffrage took 72 years 54:15 Movement started in Seneca Falls, NY with the “Declaration of Sentiments” 55:15 100 people sign that declaration. 68 women and 32 men 56:15 Women could work for wages & have no control over the money 57:00 The movement fractured over disagreement about the 15th amendment 58:00 Susan B. Anthony votes illegally and is arrested in 1872 58:30 Women’s suffrage amendment keeps being introduced and failing for 40 years 59:15 The people who started the movement die, and new leaders emerge 1:00:30 In 1919 congress passes the 19th Amendment, need 36 states to ratify 1:01:00 Tennessee becomes the final state needed to ratify 1:01:30 Vote keeps ending up tied in the Tennessee statehouse 1:02:30 Ratification passes the house 50-46 1:03:45 Women couldn’t immediately vote everywhere after passage 1:05:00 Charlotte Woodward was only signatory that lived to see 19th amendment 1:05:45 Woodward lived long enough to see it, but was too old/sick to vote herself 1:06:45 A political movement often requires one generation to build it for the next one 1:07:45 After Trump, America will need a hard fought reform movement 1:09:30 America eventually gets it right, after exhausting other paths 1:10:45 ToddCast Top 5 candidates working the hardest to win 1:11:15 #1 AOC 1:13:30 #2 Pete Buttigieg 1:13:45 #3 Kamala Harris 1:14:00 #4 Mark Kelly + #5 Gavin Newsom 1:15:45 Jon Ossoff didn’t need to make his Natalie comment 1:17:45 Andy Beshear + Rahm Emmanuel don’t scare red state Dems 1:23:00 Ask Chuck 1:24:00 Can Dems actually bring accountability to Trump if they take congress? 1:31:30 Why were outsider Dem candidates so competitive in MI and WI? 1:35:15 Why can Trump do whatever he wants unchecked? 1:40:45 How should newsrooms cover the Natalie Harp story?? 1:46:00 How do we hold politicians to account for upholding the constitution despite religion?See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Chuck Todd closes the book on primary season with Florida — and leads with the stunning upset that ended it. State Rep. Angie Nixon, a Jacksonville former union organizer and Democratic Socialists of America member, beat Alex Vindman with 56% of the vote despite being outraised roughly 16-to-1, and will now face appointed Republican Sen. Ashley Moody in November for the final two years of Marco Rubio's old seat. Chuck’s read is that this wasn't a movement election so much as a performance gap: Vindman ran like the presumptive nominee, hoarded his money for a general election he never reached, and got flatly outworked with primary voters. He's curious what Vindman does with that war chest, and notes Vindman's whole profile felt like first-term Trump resistance in a cycle that's moved on. Elsewhere in Florida: Debbie Wasserman Schultz won in a majority-Black district, Cory Mills lost his primary, Republican turnout meaningfully outpaced Democratic turnout in Florida, and Chuck thinks it's improbable but not impossible for David Jolly to beat Byron Donalds in the governor's race. But the bigger story is national, and it's about turnout as a tea leaf. More Trump-endorsed candidates went down, part of a trend Chuck argues shows Trump's relevance melting away as his approval drops — and that he's actively making things harder for his own party. Democrats cast 57% of primary ballots nationally, up from 54% in 2018, with the biggest jump in Alabama and double-digit increases across multiple states. Chuck is careful with the caveat: primary turnout is a thermometer, not a crystal ball — it tells you where your floor is, not your ceiling. Texas Democratic turnout rose even with marquee Republican races on the ballot, Kansas Republican turnout cratered (though Democrats still have work to do there), and Florida Democrats hemorrhaged voters to no-party affiliation — meaning you can see something real happening in Texas that simply isn't happening in Florida. His bottom line: Democrats will win more votes in November, and history says they win the midterms. The open question is whether they can take both chambers. Then, filmmaker and author Greg Mitchell joins the Chuck Toddcast to discuss Woody Guthrie and the Ghost of Tom Joad Today, his new PBS documentary narrated by Rosanne Cash and featuring music from Bruce Springsteen, which traces the bond Guthrie forged with John Steinbeck during a campaign to ease the suffering of migrants in California — and argues those 1930s conflicts have unmistakable echoes in the present. Mitchell, a Depression-era obsessive who has written extensively about American politics since the 1930s, explains how he began seeing the connections between Guthrie and Steinbeck and why he refused to make a straight biopic: he wanted a film with current ramifications, which is why it closes with Springsteen's "The Ghost of Tom Joad" set against images of immigrants surrounded by federal agents and protesters holding signs quoting Guthrie. He and Chuck get into the story behind "This Land Is Your Land" (which wasn't the song's original title), the mechanics of securing the rights to the music and the story, his conversation with Tom Morello about the Springsteen song, and how seeing the migrant work camps firsthand fundamentally transformed Guthrie as an artist. Mitchell notes that Steinbeck was denounced as a communist for his trouble, that the majority of California's agricultural workforce eventually became Mexican and Filipino, and that Tom Joad was always meant to be a political character — which is exactly why he keeps getting resurrected. The conversation broadens into a genuinely fun argument about protest music and whether great art requires great despair. Mitchell traces the lineage from Guthrie to Dylan (whom Guthrie mentored) to Springsteen, and notes that Guthrie has had a moment of renewed relevance over the past year as his music finds new audiences at No Kings and anti-ICE protests. He and Chuck walk through the iterations of protest music across the decades — The Clash and Blondie as deeply political acts, Springsteen's own evolution from apolitical rock star to a man now delivering angry speeches from the concert stage, and Jesse Welles finding real modern success in the form. They debate whether a fictional account can land harder than a true story, whether The Grapes of Wrath would even be a bestseller if published today, and what Tom Joad would make of contemporary America — with Mitchell arguing that the collapse of organized labor would genuinely shock both Joad and Guthrie. The episode closes on a pointed political note: Mitchell contends that Trump's corruption so far exceeds anything Nixon did that Nixon himself would be considered a lefty by modern standards. The film is streaming now on PBS.org and the PBS app. Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit the 72 year struggle of the women’s suffrage movement before achieving the ratification of the 19th amendment, presents his ToddCast Top 5 list of Democratic Presidential hopefuls who will work the hardest to win the nomination and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. Upgrade your everyday. Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 01:30 Don’t miss the Toddcast Special Report on the Lakers sale 06:30 Primary season is basically wrapped up after Florida 07:45 Raw primary turnout is a good tealeaf to read ahead of midterms 09:00 Democratic voters have been more enthusiastic w/ higher turnout 09:30 Alex Vindman loses Florida senate primary to Angie Nixon 10:30 Vindman ran his race like he was the presumptive nominee 11:00 Nixon just outworked Vindman with primary voters 11:30 Vindman hoarded his money for the general 12:30 This wasn’t a movement election, Nixon just performed 13:15 The importance of the African-American vote in Dem primaries 15:15 Need to live in Florida for more than a couple years to run successfully 15:45 Most of the carpetbagger candidates lost their primaries 16:30 Will be interesting to see what Vindman does with his war chest 18:00 Voters care if you are of/from their community 20:00 Vindman felt like first-term Trump resistance 21:00 It’s improbable but not impossible for David Jolly to beat Byron Donalds 22:15 Florida Republican turnout was much higher than Dems 23:45 Debbie Wasserman Schultz won in majority black district 24:45 Cory Mills loses his primary 25:30 More Trump endorsed candidates lost their primaries 27:15 Trump backed candidates losing has become a trend 27:45 Trump is going out of his way to make it harder for Republicans 28:30 Trump’s relevance is melting away as his approval drops 31:45 Democratic electorate is expanding in most competitive states 32:15 Primary turnout is a thermometer, not a crystal ball 32:45 Turnout tells you where your floor is, not the ceiling 34:30 Democrats outperformed their primary edge in the general in 2018 36:00 Democrats cast 57% of primary ballots, compared to 54% in ‘18 37:00 Biggest jump in Dem turnout was in Alabama 37:45 Multiple states with Democrat turnout up double digits 39:45 Alabama’s governor race may be very competitive 42:30 Texas Dem turnout was higher even with marquee GOP races 43:45 Florida Dems lost voters to a no party affiliation 44:30 You can see something happening in Texas, not in Florida 45:30 Republican turnout was way down in Kansas 47:15 Dems probably still have more work to do in Kansas 48:00 Dems will win more votes in November,48:45 History says Dems win the midterms, but can they win both chambers? 56:30 Greg Mitchell joins the Chuck ToddCast 58:00 Making an appearance in Woody Guthrie and the Ghost of Tom Joad Today 1:00:15 Chose the subject because he’s obsessed with the Depression era 1:01:15 Started seeing connections between Woody Guthrie and John Steinbeck 1:03:30 Was it difficult to get the rights for the music/story? 1:05:30 Creating protest songs like This Land Is Your Land 1:06:45 Discussing the Ghost of Tom Joad with Tom Morello 1:08:30 Tom Joad was an inspiration for Springsteen 1:09:30 Woody has always remained relevant. Songs have been covered 1:10:45 Tom Joad was meant to be political in Grapes of Wrath 1:12:30 Seeing migrant work camps deeply affected Woody Guthrie 1:14:15 Majority of agricultural workers became Mexicans & Philipinos 1:15:30 Steinbeck was denounced as a communist 1:16:15 “This land is your land” could be the national anthem 1:17:30 Do we need times of great despair to produce great art? 1:19:45 There have been iterations of protest music over the decades 1:20:45 Jesse Wells has found modern success with protest music 1:21:15 Bruce Springsteen & Tom Morello have produced new protest music 1:22:30 Groups like The Clash and Blondie were very political 1:23:15 Springsteen started as apolitical, then evolved to become political 1:25:00 Springsteen now gives angry speeches during his concerts 1:27:00 Can a fictional account land harder than a true story? 1:29:30 Is Guthrie to Dylan to Springsteen the lineage of protest music? 1:30:30 Guthrie was Bob Dylan’s mentor 1:32:00 Would Grapes of Wrath be a best seller if it came out today? 1:32:45 Film is available at PBS and the PBS app 1:33:00 What would Tom Joad feel if he was in modern America? 1:33:45 The fall of unions would shock Guthrie and Joad 1:34:45 Trump’s corruption so far exceeds anything done by Nixon 1:36:30 Nixon would be considered a “lefty” by modern standards 1:37:15 ToddCast Time Machine moved due to Lakers deep dive special 1:38:45 The movement for women’s suffrage took 72 years 1:39:15 Movement started in Seneca Falls, NY with the “Declaration of Sentiments” 1:40:15 100 people sign that declaration. 68 women and 32 men 1:41:15 Women could work for wages & have no control over the money 1:42:00 The movement fractured over disagreement about the 15th amendment 1:43:00 Susan B. Anthony votes illegally and is arrested in 1872 1:43:30 Women’s suffrage amendment keeps being introduced and failing for 40 years 1:44:15 The people who started the movement die, and new leaders emerge 1:45:30 In 1919 congress passes the 19th Amendment, need 36 states to ratify 1:46:00 Tennessee becomes the final state needed to ratify 1:46:30 Vote keeps ending up tied in the Tennessee statehouse 1:47:30 Ratification passes the house 50-46 1:48:45 Women couldn’t immediately vote everywhere after passage 1:50:00 Charlotte Woodward was only signatory that lived to see 19th amendment 1:50:45 Woodward lived long enough to see it, but was too old/sick to vote herself 1:51:45 A political movement often requires one generation to build it for the next one 1:52:45 After Trump, America will need a hard fought reform movement 1:54:30 America eventually gets it right, after exhausting other paths 1:55:30 ToddCast Top 5 candidates working the hardest to win 1:56:00 #1 AOC 1:58:15 #2 Pete Buttigieg 1:58:30 #3 Kamala Harris 1:58:45 #4 Mark Kelly + #5 Gavin Newsom 2:00:30 Jon Ossoff didn’t need to make his Natalie comment 2:02:30 Andy Beshear + Rahm Emmanuel don’t scare red state Dems 2:08:00 Ask Chuck 2:09:00 Can Dems actually bring accountability to Trump if they take congress? 2:16:30 Why were outsider Dem candidates so competitive in MI and WI? 2:20:15 Why can Trump do whatever he wants unchecked? 2:25:45 How should newsrooms cover the Natalie Harp story?? 2:31:00 How do we hold politicians to account for upholding the constitution despite religion?See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Filmmaker and author Greg Mitchell joins the Chuck Toddcast to discuss Woody Guthrie and the Ghost of Tom Joad Today, his new PBS documentary narrated by Rosanne Cash and featuring music from Bruce Springsteen, which traces the bond Guthrie forged with John Steinbeck during a campaign to ease the suffering of migrants in California — and argues those 1930s conflicts have unmistakable echoes in the present. Mitchell, a Depression-era obsessive who has written extensively about American politics since the 1930s, explains how he began seeing the connections between Guthrie and Steinbeck and why he refused to make a straight biopic: he wanted a film with current ramifications, which is why it closes with Springsteen's "The Ghost of Tom Joad" set against images of immigrants surrounded by federal agents and protesters holding signs quoting Guthrie. He and Chuck get into the story behind "This Land Is Your Land" (which wasn't the song's original title), the mechanics of securing the rights to the music and the story, his conversation with Tom Morello about the Springsteen song, and how seeing the migrant work camps firsthand fundamentally transformed Guthrie as an artist. Mitchell notes that Steinbeck was denounced as a communist for his trouble, that the majority of California's agricultural workforce eventually became Mexican and Filipino, and that Tom Joad was always meant to be a political character — which is exactly why he keeps getting resurrected. The conversation broadens into a genuinely fun argument about protest music and whether great art requires great despair. Mitchell traces the lineage from Guthrie to Dylan (whom Guthrie mentored) to Springsteen, and notes that Guthrie has had a moment of renewed relevance over the past year as his music finds new audiences at No Kings and anti-ICE protests. He and Chuck walk through the iterations of protest music across the decades — The Clash and Blondie as deeply political acts, Springsteen's own evolution from apolitical rock star to a man now delivering angry speeches from the concert stage, and Jesse Welles finding real modern success in the form. They debate whether a fictional account can land harder than a true story, whether The Grapes of Wrath would even be a bestseller if published today, and what Tom Joad would make of contemporary America — with Mitchell arguing that the collapse of organized labor would genuinely shock both Joad and Guthrie. The episode closes on a pointed political note: Mitchell contends that Trump's corruption so far exceeds anything Nixon did, and that Nixon himself would be considered a lefty by modern standards. The film is streaming now on PBS.org and the PBS app. Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Greg Mitchell joins the Chuck ToddCast 01:30 Making an appearance in Woody Guthrie and the Ghost of Tom Joad Today 03:45 Chose the subject because he’s obsessed with the Depression era 04:45 Started seeing connections between Woody Guthrie and John Steinbeck 07:00 Was it difficult to get the rights for the music/story? 09:00 Creating protest songs like This Land Is Your Land 10:15 Discussing the Ghost of Tom Joad with Tom Morello 12:00 Tom Joad was an inspiration for Springsteen 13:00 Woody has always remained relevant. Songs have been covered 14:15 Tom Joad was meant to be political in Grapes of Wrath 16:00 Seeing migrant work camps deeply affected Woody Guthrie 17:45 Majority of agricultural workers became Mexicans & Philipinos 19:00 Steinbeck was denounced as a communist 19:45 “This land is your land” could be the national anthem 21:00 Do we need times of great despair to produce great art? 23:15 There have been iterations of protest music over the decades 24:15 Jesse Wells has found modern success with protest music 24:45 Bruce Springsteen & Tom Morello have produced new protest music 26:00 Groups like The Clash and Blondie were very political 26:45 Springsteen started as apolitical, then evolved to become political 28:30 Springsteen now gives angry speeches during his concerts 30:30 Can a fictional account land harder than a true story? 33:00 Is Guthrie to Dylan to Springsteen the lineage of protest music? 34:00 Guthrie was Bob Dylan’s mentor 35:30 Would Grapes of Wrath be a best seller if it came out today? 36:15 Film is available at PBS and the PBS app 36:30 What would Tom Joad feel if he was in modern America? 37:15 The fall of unions would shock Guthrie and Joad 38:15 Trump’s corruption so far exceeds anything done by Nixon 40:00 Nixon would be considered a “lefty” by modern standardsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Chuck Todd and J.A. Adande explore the origins of the Crimson Tide and the remarkable rise of Bear Bryant. From Alabama’s early Rose Bowl triumphs and the beginnings of the Crimson Tide name to Bryant’s near-departure for the Miami Dolphins, they trace the moments that helped turn Alabama into the standard of college football. They also examine one of the most complicated chapters in the program’s history: integration, Bear Bryant’s role in a changing South, and Alabama’s landmark 1970 matchup with USC. It’s the story of how football became inseparable from Alabama—and how the foundation was laid for one of the greatest dynasties in sports history.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
With under 80 days to the midterms, Chuck Todd and Chris Cillizza pause the horse race for a full "where are we now" audit of the 2028 Democratic field — prompted, Chris admits, by listener pushback that they'd been too dismissive of Gavin Newsom. Using the Kalshi and Polymarket odds as a starting point rather than gospel, they work through a top tier of AOC, Newsom, and Jon Ossoff. Chuck's central thesis is that AOC could become a magnetic force on the scale of Trump in 2016 or Obama in 2008 — a candidacy the entire field gets measured against, potentially freezing out half the governors and senators eyeing a run. He maps how she could be the frontrunner while playing underdog in South Carolina, and why the new calendar's crowded first state may actually cushion her. On Newsom, Chuck is blunt: the prediction markets are artificially inflating him, the attention economy is doing the work, and a California governor with a mixed record has no obvious state to win. They also make the case that Kamala Harris ultimately doesn't run — and that not running is the smarter play for 2032. The back half turns to the field's second tier and its long shots: whether Mark Kelly has the hunger and the issue to go with the biography (Chuck's dream ticket: Kelly and Warnock, order randomized), why John Glenn and Bill Bradley are the cautionary tales for résumé candidates, whether Ossoff can realistically jump straight from an $87 million Senate race into a billion-dollar presidential campaign, and a genuine dark-horse case for Rahm Emanuel built on the party's underinvestment in rural Black voters. They preview Tuesday's Florida primary — Byron Donalds's real ceiling, why Chuck thinks the general could land inside five points, the Mel Martinez precedent, and Corey Mills, Debbie Wasserman Schultz, and Alex Vindman. Then the tone shifts hard: an angry, unsparing exchange about the expired US-Iran memorandum, the Strait of Hormuz, conditions aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln, and Pete Hegseth's fitness for the job. Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Under 80 days out — and a full 2028 Democratic audit 01:06 Why Chuck thinks JD Vance will divide the right 02:08 The prediction markets as one data point, not the whole story 02:55 Reading Polymarket and Kalshi: AOC, Newsom, Ossoff at the top 05:12 Could AOC suck up all the oxygen the way Trump did in '16? 06:15 The egg-freezing story as proof of her magnetic pull 06:42 Skeptical Newsom can play in Michigan, Iowa, South Carolina 07:30 The impossible position for Newsom 08:16 AOC's advantage — no long record to defend 09:38 Could egg-freezing access become an issue she champions? 10:01 How her presence could paralyze half the field before it starts 10:57 Where does that leave Pritzker? Or Ossoff? 11:59 The formalized DNC calendar 13:37 Nevada, Michigan and the Culinary Union question 14:42 Why a crowded South Carolina helps the progressive lane 15:13 What 2020 looked like when South Carolina came fourth 15:49 Newsom's real problem: where does he actually win? 16:59 Harris's East Coast headquarters lesson 17:22 Advice: put your HQ in Michigan, not San Francisco 19:42 The counterargument: no gatekeepers left, and the hustler wins 20:10 Ossoff, Buttigieg & who's actually willing to burn the boats 21:08 Newsom one-on-one vs. Newsom in a big room 22:08 Would a swing-state Democrat invite Newsom to campaign? 23:04 Harris analysis: you don't buy in Malibu if you're running 24:06 The Dan Quayle risk if she runs under these circumstances 25:01 Newsom and Harris can't both run 26:20 Mark Kelly in Iowa & the quote that reads like a stump speech 27:15 Chuck's lab-built ticket: an astronaut and a pastor 27:50 Will the Democratic base accept Kelly? 29:30 Is Kelly too pro-business for this version of the party? 30:45 How Trump's attacks on Kelly may have helped him 31:33 The real gap: Kelly has no signature issue 32:03 AOC is the change candidate — inside the party and outside it 33:09 Biographies don't win the presidency 33:30 The cautionary tales: John Glenn and Bill Bradley 35:08 The charisma gap — and Kelly's habit of yelling to show energy 35:55 Scanning the long shots on the board 36:55 If not AOC, then Ro Khanna 37:16 Pritzker at 1% — the governor who could reach the left 37:46 Chuck's real dark horse: Rahm Emanuel 39:32 Democrats' rural problem isn't just rural whites 39:59 The left will never accept him 42:07 Not a cycle for an insider — but maybe for an ideas guy 42:27 The Wisconsin lesson: Crowley won against something 42:50 To Florida: Tuesday's primary and Tuesday night's live stream 43:35 Jolly-Donalds could land inside five points 44:01 Why Florida isn't as noncompetitive as people assume 44:44 Could DeSantis win a third term? 45:24 What's Donalds's real number? 46:16 The Mel Martinez precedent 48:29 Why Chuck thinks Jerry Demings had the better shot at Donalds 49:56 The 2018 what-if: Bernie, Soros, Gillum and DeSantis 50:43 Credit to DeSantis for saying what Trump never does 51:48 Debbie Wasserman Schultz in a majority-Black district 52:38 The Vindman question — and the residency problem 54:23 The US-Iran memorandum expires with no deal 55:46 A $1.5 trillion budget and a carrier crew that can't get fed 56:11 Testosterone tests and push-up contests while the Lincoln goes short 56:33 Operationally a disaster — and where's the audit? 57:57 Damaging the last institution still standing 59:51 The Nats get swept by the Mets See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
What started as a simple sports question: why did Mark Walter sell the Los Angeles Lakers after just 14 months? — turned into something else entirely. In Part 1 of this two-part ToddCast Special Report, Chuck Todd pulls the thread from a record $12.5 billion franchise sale to the life insurance companies, private credit vehicles, and obscure Delaware LLCs sitting underneath one of the least understood transformations in American finance since 2008. The facts on the record: Walter's Delaware Life Insurance Co. and Clear Spring Life and Annuity Co. received grand jury subpoenas from Manhattan prosecutors in February, disclosed in June 26 regulatory filings, with a parallel SEC review, following earlier inquiries into Guggenheim's $362 billion money management arm. After receiving the subpoenas, both insurers conducted internal reviews, found reporting errors, and revised earlier disclosures — with Delaware Life disclosing an additional $16 billion in private credit assets linked to affiliated entities beyond what had previously been reported. Chuck is emphatic about what that does not mean: no money disappeared, no loans were declared bad, and a disclosure change is not a financial loss. No charges have been announced against the companies or any individuals, Group 1001 says it is cooperating fully with federal authorities and that its financial position remains strong, and the filings did not state that assets were improperly managed or that investors suffered losses. From there, Chuck builds the machine from the ground up in plain English — a retiree in Indiana buying an annuity, an insurer that has to earn enough to keep that promise, a post-2008 world where banks got safer and the risky lending simply moved somewhere with no public market attached to it. He traces Walter's career from asset-backed securitization in the 1990s through the 2012 Dodgers purchase (and the question Andrew Ross Sorkin asked at the time about where the money came from), through the corporate genealogy of Guggenheim, Delaware Life, Clear Spring, and Group 1001, to insurance filings showing hundreds of millions in debt tied to the Dodgers' regional sports network and ticket revenue. He credits the reporting he's leaning on throughout — Katie Baker at The Ringer, independent researcher Nick Nemeth at Mispriced Assets, plus Bloomberg, the Wall Street Journal, and the Financial Times — and he is scrupulous about the line between what the public record establishes and what it simply cannot. The core question isn't whether anyone broke the law; investigators with subpoena power will answer that. It's whether we understand this system well enough to know what happens when it comes under stress — because when the assets underneath an institution's balance sheet can't be continuously tested in a public market, how much confidence should any of us have in the numbers? Part 2 continues the story. Timeline: 00:00 Why did Mark Walter sell the Lakers? Pulling the thread 00:30 This stopped being a basketball story 00:45 A record $12.5B sale — and why the seller is the story, not the buyers 01:15 Walter took control just 14 months earlier at a $10B valuation 01:30 The thread led to life insurance companies 02:00 A financial market that's grown enormously since the last crisis 02:30 Things that rhyme with 2008 — and things that rhyme with Enron 02:45 Executive Life: the insurer that failed three decades ago 03:15 Three different historical examples — not the same thing 03:45 Not saying another 2008 is coming 04:00 "A sneaking suspicion we may be looking at the beginning of something very bad" 04:15 The questions public filings simply cannot answer 05:15 Why some answers only exist in depositions 05:30 Why the federal investigation matters — subpoena power 06:00 The rule for this episode: what we know vs. what we don't 06:30 The central question about measuring financial strength 07:15 Why this should be a five-alarm fire for regulators 07:45 An enormous market built around things that are private by definition 08:15 Credit where it's due: The Ringer, Mispriced Assets, WSJ, Bloomberg, FT 09:15 Connecting dots vs. building a case 10:00 We made banks safer after 2008 — the money went somewhere else 11:00 Even if it's all legal, the larger question remains 11:45 A simple rule: when someone tells you "it's complicated" 12:15 Complexity as a feature, not a bug 13:00 The innocent explanation: a $2.5B gain in 14 months 13:30 Iger and Kushner were already exploring an NBA expansion team 13:45 Why buy the Lakers instead of building from scratch 14:45 What "valued at $10 billion" does and doesn't mean 15:30 We don't know how much cash Walter personally receives 15:45 Why sell at all? Walter collects teams, he doesn't flip them 16:30 Why only the Lakers? He's keeping the Dodgers 17:15 February grand jury subpoenas and the parallel SEC review 17:30 The disclosure change inside the insurers' filings 18:15 A disclosure change is not a financial loss 19:30 Nobody's been charged; companies say they're cooperating 20:00 Reporting on liquidity — and the precision that question requires 21:00 Why the timing is a legitimate reporting question 21:15 Keeping two separate sports stories separate 21:45 The FIFA deal collapsed roughly 10 days before the Lakers deal 22:15 What the timing does and does not establish 23:00 The political question: Josh Kushner, Jared Kushner, the executive branch 23:45 The pattern is context — it is not evidence 24:00 No evidence of a quid pro quo 24:45 Why the question stays on the shelf 25:15 What does "billionaire" actually mean? 26:00 Who is Mark Walter? Cedar Rapids, a concrete plant, and anonymity 27:15 "I'm nothing special. I'm just the king of common sense." 27:45 Why the low profile matters to this story 28:30 Liberty Hampshire and asset-backed securitization 29:30 Meeting the Guggenheims and building Guggenheim Partners 30:45 Wealth vs. commanding capital that isn't yours 31:45 2012: buying the Dodgers, and the Frank McCourt cautionary tale 33:00 Baseball wanted the exact opposite of McCourt 33:45 Andrew Ross Sorkin's question: where's the rest of the money? 34:15 Insurance company capital in the Dodgers financing 35:15 How does retirement money end up near a baseball team? 36:30 Following the money: a hypothetical retiree in Indiana 37:15 The annuity bargain and what insurers do with the money 38:15 How 2008 scrambled the insurance business 39:00 Low rates and the hunt for yield 39:45 Chuck's Widget Company and the loan the bank won't make 41:00 Money always finds a way — the lesson from campaign finance 41:45 What private credit actually is 42:15 The genuine advantages of private credit 43:00 Stickier capital — and why runs still happen 43:45 Private credit isn't inherently bad. What happens when it gets big? 44:15 No public market means no continuous price check 45:15 What replaces the market as the check on valuation? 46:00 Two sides looking for each other 47:00 Multiplying one retiree's $100,000 by hundreds of thousands 47:45 What happens when the same person owns both sides? 48:30 This is an entire industry, not one man's invention 49:15 Guggenheim's move into insurance and the roots of Group 1001 50:30 The ecosystem: asset management, insurance, private credit 51:00 Why the corporate structure is so hard to follow 51:30 Sportsnet LA and American Media Productions 52:00 Roughly $587M of that debt held by the two insurers, per filings 52:30 Dodgers Tickets LLC and slicing up a franchise 53:00 Is the Dodgers one entity or many? 53:30 Asset-backed securitization, applied to a baseball team 54:30 Is lending against Dodgers TV revenue inherently bad? 55:00 The brother analogy: conflicts and other people's money 55:30 February: subpoenas to Delaware Life and Clear Spring 56:15 The assets were always on the books — the question is characterization 56:30 General interrogatory 13.2 and the original 3% answer 57:00 The revised figure: roughly $16.4B described as dependent on affiliates 57:30 Three separate questions the public record can't resolve 58:15 What the internal reviews concluded 58:45 Comparing that figure to Delaware Life's reported capital and surplus 59:15 What the number does NOT mean 59:45 Concentration, governance, and disclosure 1:00:30 The questions that actually matter 1:01:00 Why the opacity itself is part of the story 1:01:15 Someone looked at the individual borrowers, one by one 1:02:00 Nick Nemeth and the Mispriced Assets research 1:03:15 Why independent research matters in the new media world 1:03:45 Roughly 230 holdings with striking similarities 1:04:00 The names: Verdant Hills, Pines, Iroquois, Yellow Creek 1:04:30 Special purpose vehicles — what's inside the box? 1:05:00 The legitimate reasons to use an LLC 1:05:30 How structure can change regulatory treatment 1:06:15 Does the legal wrapper describe the economic risk underneath? 1:06:45 Does that explain 230 vehicles? We don't know. 1:07:15 The echo of the mortgage crisis 1:08:00 Formation dates, filing numbers, and same-day funding 1:08:45 Roughly 44% of positions held by both insurers, purchased the same day 1:09:15 Innocent explanations exist — but this looks like a system 1:09:30 The questions only investigators can answer 1:10:00 Identification numbers and why outsiders can't check a price 1:10:45 A sophisticated process may exist — but it isn't a public market 1:11:15 What's a private note worth this morning? 1:11:30 Carried at or near purchase price: the concern raised 1:12:00 The great irony: the Lakers are the easy thing to value 1:12:30 Who owns these investments — and who was promised whatSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
In Part 2 of this ToddCast Special Report, Chuck Todd picks up the thread where Part 1 left it: if an insurance company's capital cushion is determined by how risky its investments are judged to be, then who is doing the judging? The answer leads to private letter ratings — a corner of finance almost no one outside it has heard of, and one that has exploded in size. Wall Street Journal reporting by Shane Shiflett and Heather Gillers assembled data on nearly 18,000 privately rated instruments held by U.S. insurers, and the growth curve is the number to remember: roughly $47 billion in 2018 to roughly $480 billion seven years later, with one estimate putting total private credit in insurance portfolios near $1 trillion. Much of that grading runs through firms most people have never heard of, and Chuck focuses on Egan-Jones, which privately graded roughly $40 billion of debt held by U.S. insurers, faces a 2024 lawsuit from two former executives alleging they were fired after raising conflict-of-interest concerns and that the firm pressured staff to inflate ratings, has drawn SEC questions about its reliability, and in January was removed by Bermuda regulators from their list of recognized ratings providers — all of which Egan-Jones forcefully denies, saying it stands behind the integrity and independence of its work. Chuck is careful throughout about what this does and does not establish: agencies can legitimately disagree, private raters often see borrower information outsiders never will, and none of it means any particular rating is wrong. It means the ratings deserve scrutiny, because if the grade helps set the size of the rainy day fund, being wrong about the grade means being wrong about the cushion. From there the episode widens out. Chuck walks through what a clean audit opinion actually certifies versus what people assume it certifies, revisits Executive Life — the insurer that reached for yield in junk bonds in the 1980s and was eventually seized — as a more instructive warning than Enron or 2008, and is direct that this is not a story about an insurer on the brink: Group 1001 says it is cooperating fully and that its financial position remains sound, Delaware Life reported roughly $69 billion in assets as of March and Clear Spring roughly $16 billion, and no charges have been announced against the companies or any individuals. AM Best has affirmed both companies' A- (Excellent) financial strength ratings while revising their outlooks to negative following the reclassification of private credit investments from unaffiliated to affiliated. Complicated private assets are not insolvency; related-party exposure is not insolvency; a federal investigation is not insolvency. The question Chuck is actually chasing is structural — whether a system split across fifty state insurance departments, the SEC, the Fed, offshore reinsurance regulators, and private ratings firms can assemble the whole machine fast enough when one piece breaks, and whether the real lesson of the post-2008 era is that we made the banks safer without ever asking where the behavior would go. He lays out three ways this ends, six specific questions he'd chase with subpoena power he doesn't have, and — unusually — the exact evidence that would bring him back in six months to say the warning lights looked worse than the engine. Because capitalism doesn't run on money alone. It runs on people believing that a price means what it says, that a rating means something, and that somebody understands the risk underneath a promise made to a retiree thirty years out. Timeline: 00:00 Recapping Part 1: inside Mark Walter's world of structured finance00:30 Who looked inside the box and decided how safe it was?01:00 Why the risk grade determines the size of an insurer's cushion01:30 Credit rating agencies as the report card for debt02:00 A better grade can mean less capital sitting behind it02:15 The special purpose vehicle, the note, and the rating02:45 Does the grade on the box accurately reflect what's inside?03:15 WSJ data on nearly 18,000 privately rated investments03:30 From $47 billion in 2018 to $480 billion seven years later03:45 One estimate puts private credit near $1 trillion in insurance portfolios04:15 What "privately rated" actually means04:30 Private letter ratings and what the public can't see05:00 Why the quality and independence of the rating matters so much05:15 Egan-Jones — and the Arthur Andersen flashback05:45 The ratings agencies you know, and the one you don't06:00 Roughly $40 billion of insurer-held debt privately rated by Egan-Jones06:15 Egan-Jones also rated the Dodgers TV network debt06:30 Following the chain from annuity customer to capital cushion06:45 Who pays the ratings agencies? The inherent tension07:15 The Journal's comparison: roughly one grade higher on average07:45 Egan-Jones strongly disputes the Journal's analysis08:00 Former executives' lawsuit alleging pressure to inflate ratings08:15 Egan-Jones denies it; the SEC has examined its processes08:30 Bermuda removed Egan-Jones as a recognized ratings provider08:45 Allianz's response: requiring a second rating09:15 This doesn't mean the ratings are wrong — it means scrutiny09:30 Enter the auditor: KPMG and the clean opinions10:00 What an audit opinion addresses — and what it doesn't10:30 The right question to ask about a clean opinion11:00 Executive Life: the more useful historical warning11:30 Junk bonds, Michael Milken, and the reach for yield12:00 How Executive Life ended — and why it isn't the same thing12:15 The evidence that cuts against the scariest version of this story12:30 Delaware Life's reported assets, capital, and surplus12:45 Financial strength ratings and what "A-" actually means13:00 The more recent caution from the ratings agencies13:30 This is not an insurer on the verge of seizure13:45 The real question: confidence in conventional measures of strength14:00 Why asset quality matters when you're backing promises14:30 The safety net: state guaranty associations14:45 And who ultimately pays for that safety net15:00 Accumulating echoes: Executive Life, Enron, and 200815:45 The warning lights of 202616:15 Not a crisis — but a reason to ask better questions16:30 Can regulators adapt as fast as the system is changing?17:00 What regulators are actually doing right now17:30 This is not asleep-at-the-switch17:45 The structural problem: nobody sees the whole machine18:15 Fifty states, fifty insurance departments18:45 Why we regulate different financial businesses differently19:00 Assembling the machine when each regulator holds one piece19:45 Finance moves at the speed of a term sheet20:15 Regulation moves at the speed of rulemaking20:45 Understanding regulatory arbitrage21:00 Same television, different rules21:45 Most regulatory arbitrage is perfectly legal22:00 But risk doesn't change just because the address does22:15 Why regulators are reconsidering what qualifies as a bond22:30 Show me what's inside the box, not the wrapping paper23:00 The rules are being rewritten — but the money is already there23:30 The mistake Washington may have made after 200824:00 You can't pass a law eliminating the desire to make money24:45 The campaign finance parallel25:00 We regulated the scene of the accident25:30 We get very good at preventing the last financial crisis26:00 Incentives work: if banks pull back, somebody else lends26:15 Maybe the behavior simply migrated27:15 The systemic stress test Chuck doesn't think we can pass27:45 Why the investigation is useful regardless of the outcome28:00 Looking through the legal boxes to the economics underneath28:30 Where the central argument lands29:15 What happens when something goes wrong? The honest answer29:30 The strongest case that nothing catastrophic happens30:00 Why private credit isn't structured like a bank run30:15 Longer-term liabilities and patient money30:45 Three ways this story could end31:00 Possibility one: Walter is the problem31:15 Possibility two: an extreme example of a manageable problem31:45 Possibility three: Walter is the X-ray32:00 What we do — and don't — have evidence of32:30 Being careful not to invent the next 200832:45 Where pressure could actually come from33:15 When patient money becomes less patient33:30 Other sources of insurance funding under stress33:45 Borrowing, credit lines, and reinsurance triggers34:00 Who else made a promise based on that valuation?34:15 Being fair to Delaware Life and Clear Spring34:45 The narrower question: how much stress can the cushions absorb?35:15 Back to the Lakers one last time35:45 Why you sell the thing you can sell36:00 What Chuck is and isn't ready to say36:30 If I had subpoena power: the reporting roadmap37:00 What open-source reporting can and can't do37:30 One: open the boxes and show the underlying assets37:45 Two: did the structure change the regulatory treatment?38:15 Schedule D vs. Schedule BA — show us the math38:30 Three: who graded the box, and on what information?38:45 Four: why did 3% become something vastly larger?39:00 Who made that judgment, and what changed after the subpoenas?39:30 Five: did the Lakers money actually matter?39:45 Six: how much stress can these insurers absorb?40:15 What we know, and what we don't40:30 The final test: what would make Chuck say he was too worried40:45 Show me the marks hold up41:15 "I'd love to make that podcast"41:30 What this story already tells us41:45 Coming back to Josh Kushner and the timing42:00 No evidence of a quid pro quo42:15 Why the political question is the smaller question42:45 The more consequential story43:00 The full thread: Lakers to Walter to Dodgers to private credit43:30 What we have and haven't established43:45 We reinforced the part of the house that burned down44:15 Every private equity firm wanted its own insurance company44:30 "Money always finds a way"45:00 The failure was assuming we'd solved the behavior45:15 Why this matters well beyond Wall Street45:30 Our hypothetical retiree, and what she has to trust45:45 Capitalism runs on trust, not just money46:15 If that trust breaks, everyone finds a different villain46:45 Where Chuck's instincts are — and what the evidence doesn't establish47:00 What would change his mind47:15 Why it's fitting we got here through the Lakers47:45 Let's figure out what it is before the patient gets sickSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Chuck Todd unloads on newly confirmed Attorney General Todd Blanche for appearing at a political rally alongside Trump — a line past attorneys general knew better than to cross — and for openly stating that the Justice Department won't be independent of the White House. Chuck argues Republicans are making the DOJ far more nakedly partisan than any prior administration, that the senators who voted to confirm Blanche should be ashamed of themselves, and that Blanche is essentially telling the country in advance that the institution won't hold. He turns to the horror stories surfacing about morale and conditions aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln, where Trump's response was that the deployment hasn't gone on nearly long enough — proof, Chuck argues, that neither Trump nor Hegseth is even pretending to care about the people they've deployed, and that America was taken into a war it was never prepared to fight. After years of record military budgets producing bad results, Chuck’s question is simple and furious: what the hell have we been paying for? He identifies a clear leadership problem at the Pentagon, then pivots to what he sees as the coming Republican civil war over JD Vance, who now says he wants to end the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency and who views America's alliances as liabilities rather than strengths — positions Vance will have to actually sell on the merits, because he doesn't have Trump's charisma to carry them, and positions that could drive a meaningful number of Republicans out of a Vance-led party altogether. Chuck closes with a genuinely provocative question about the missing anti-war movement: where are the protests over Iran? He wonders aloud whether the Gaza demonstrations were ever really an anti-war movement at all, whether they were as organically American-driven as they appeared, and argues the silence around Iran is revealing in ways nobody on either side seems eager to examine — before previewing Tuesday's Florida primaries. Politico politics bureau chief and senior political columnist Jonathan Martin joins the Chuck Toddcast for a reporter's-eye tour of the 2028 landscape, starting from an observation both men keep circling: the governing wing of each party is badly out of step with its own voters. Martin walks through the Democratic field with real granularity. Pete Buttigieg carries genuine Biden baggage and is fundamentally a creature of institutions — he isn't going to burn the house down, which is precisely why the left will never trust his establishment credentials, and why Martin wonders aloud whether his future might be more as an advisor than a candidate. On AOC, Martin's read is that the entire question is simply whether she runs: if she does, she's the lead car in the progressive lane and could clear it outright, and she'd be formidable in a crowded field. He notes it's no accident she reemerged right after El-Sayed's Michigan win, that she's been careful and disciplined about picking her spots during the primaries, and that she more than held her own speaking at Ebenezer Baptist church — which matters enormously given the Democratic calendar was explicitly designed to stymie progressives by putting South Carolina first. Martin isn't at all convinced Jon Ossoff runs, even though Ossoff checks every box on the list of things Democrats have historically wanted, and he thinks Abdul El-Sayed could be a genuinely formidable presidential candidate. The overarching question, as Martin frames it, is whether Democrats vote with their head or their heart in 2028 — a decision the November midterms will shape more than anything else. On the Republican side, they point out Vance simply wasn't a good candidate when he ran for Senate and needed both Trump and Peter Thiel to drag him over the finish line, that Rubio's presidential campaigns always ran into whoever's "turn" it was, and that the fastest way to lose in this environment is to be seen as one of the donor candidates. Vance's real challenge, Martin argues, is the Tucker Carlson model — and the open question of who carries that banner in 2028. He and Chuck agree the far left is currently stronger than the far right within their respective parties, and that insurgencies are a natural feature of the party out of power. Nothing, Martin says flatly, gets better for Republicans between now and the midterms; the Iranians want to humiliate Trump and Jimmy Carter him, and they're timing their moves to the American political calendar. They agree Democrats are either picking up two Senate seats or six with very little in between, and predict Greg Abbott will have to spend real money to win in Texas. Plus: why in-person interviews still beat remote ones, the disappearance of the old guard of Tennessee Republican politics, how Buttigieg's sexuality might factor into a national campaign, why online small-dollar money means Democrats no longer need to court only big donors — and whether UVA can actually contend in football this year. Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. Upgrade your everyday. Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 04:30 Shout out to ReCenter Indiana 07:30 Todd Blanche appeared at political rally with Trump, now as AG 08:00 Past Attorneys General knew better than to act so partisan 08:30 Blanche says DOJ won’t be independent of the White House 09:15 Republicans are making DOJ far more partisan than prior admins 10:15 Senators who confirmed Blanche should be ashamed of themselves 11:15 Blanche is telling us that the institution of the DOJ won’t hold 12:00 Horror stories surface about morale & conditions on USS Abraham Lincoln 12:30 Trump says deployment hasn’t gone on nearly long enough 13:00 Trump and Hegseth didn’t even pretend to care about these soldiers 13:45 Clearly we were taken into a war that we weren’t prepared for 14:15 We keep passing record military budgets & getting bad results 15:00 What the hell have we been paying for? 15:30 We have a clear leadership problem at the Pentagon 16:45 The coming civil war inside the Republican party over JD Vance 17:15 Vance says he wants to end the dollar as the reserve currency 17:45 Vance views alliances as liabilities rather than strengths 18:15 Vance doesn’t have Trump’s charisma, will have to sell his argument 18:45 Many Republicans might leave a Vance Republican party 19:30 Where are the protests and the anti-war movement over Iran? 20:30 Was Gaza actually an anti-war movement? 21:00 Were Gaza protests not as American driven as we thought? 22:15 The lack of protest over Iran is revealing 23:15 Preview of Florida primary elections on Tuesday 28:00 Jonathan Martin joins The Chuck ToddCast 29:30 Why in-person interviews are so much better than remote 31:30 The old guard of GOP politics in Tennessee are gone 33:30 The governing wing of each party aren’t agreeing with the voters 34:15 How does Pete Buttigieg navigate carrying “Biden baggage”? 34:45 Pete is a creature of the institutions, he won’t burn down the house 35:30 The left won’t ever trust Pete’s establishment credentials 36:30 How Pete’s sexuality could affect a presidential run 37:30 Is his future more in an advisor role than an elected official? 40:00 If AOC runs in 2028, she’ll be the lead car in the progressive lane 41:30 The question surrounding AOC is “will she or won’t she run” 42:00 The presidential campaign will be shaped by November midterms 42:30 Do the Dems go with their head or their heart in 28? 44:45 Insurgencies happen in this environment for party out of power 46:15 Nothing gets better between now and the midterms for Republicans 47:45 The Iranians want to humiliate Trump and “Jimmy Carter” him 48:45 Besides Vance, Rubio and Youngkin, who else might run for the GOP? 49:30 Who carries the Tucker Carlson banner in ‘28? 51:45 Vance was not a good candidate when he ran for senate 52:30 Vance needed Trump & Peter Thiel to get him over the finish line 53:30 Rubio’s campaigns were challenging the person whose turn it was 54:45 You don’t want to be seen as one of the “donor candidates” 55:30 Vance’s biggest challenge will be of the Tucker model 56:00 The far left is stronger than the far right 59:00 Democrats primary calendar designed to stymie progressives 1:00:00 Impact of South Carolina going first 1:01:30 AOC would clear progressive lane & be formidable in crowded field 1:02:30 Not at all convinced that Jon Ossoff runs in ‘28 1:03:00 Democrats have a type, and Ossoff checks all those boxes 1:04:15 Abdul El-Sayed could be formidable as a presidential candidate 1:05:00 AOC could emerge from South Carolina in a strong position 1:05:30 AOC held her own speaking at Ebenezer Baptist church 1:06:15 Not an accident AOC reemerged after El-Sayed’s win 1:08:15 AOC has been smart and careful to pick her spots during primaries 1:09:30 What will keep prominent Dems from running? 1:10:00 There’s lots of Dem donor money online, don’t need only big $ donors 1:11:30 Dems are either picking up two senate seats… or six 1:12:30 How cemented is the red/blue map? 1:15:00 Kansas could be ‘06 Indiana but Dem hasn’t won senate seat since 30s 1:16:15 Voters don’t like the public school funding cuts for vouchers 1:17:30 Greg Abbott will have to spend big to win his race 1:18:00 Will UVA be a contender in football? 1:25:00 No time machine this week 1:25:45 Ask Chuck 1:26:00 Why doesn’t congress vote on more clean standalone bills? 1:29:15 List of biggest presidential blunders 1:32:30 Dems chances of shifting red states in the midwest?See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Politico politics bureau chief and senior political columnist Jonathan Martin joins the Chuck Toddcast for a reporter's-eye tour of the 2028 landscape, starting from an observation both men keep circling: the governing wing of each party is badly out of step with its own voters. Martin walks through the Democratic field with real granularity. Pete Buttigieg carries genuine Biden baggage and is fundamentally a creature of institutions — he isn't going to burn the house down, which is precisely why the left will never trust his establishment credentials, and why Martin wonders aloud whether his future might be more as an advisor than a candidate. On AOC, Martin's read is that the entire question is simply whether she runs: if she does, she's the lead car in the progressive lane and could clear it outright, and she'd be formidable in a crowded field. He notes it's no accident she reemerged right after El-Sayed's Michigan win, that she's been careful and disciplined about picking her spots during the primaries, and that she more than held her own speaking at Ebenezer Baptist church — which matters enormously given the Democratic calendar was explicitly designed to stymie progressives by putting South Carolina first. Martin isn't at all convinced Jon Ossoff runs, even though Ossoff checks every box on the list of things Democrats have historically wanted, and he thinks Abdul El-Sayed could be a genuinely formidable presidential candidate. The overarching question, as Martin frames it, is whether Democrats vote with their head or their heart in 2028 — a decision the November midterms will shape more than anything else. On the Republican side, they point out Vance simply wasn't a good candidate when he ran for Senate and needed both Trump and Peter Thiel to drag him over the finish line, that Rubio's presidential campaigns always ran into whoever's "turn" it was, and that the fastest way to lose in this environment is to be seen as one of the donor candidates. Vance's real challenge, Martin argues, is the Tucker Carlson model — and the open question of who carries that banner in 2028. He and Chuck agree the far left is currently stronger than the far right within their respective parties, and that insurgencies are a natural feature of the party out of power. Nothing, Martin says flatly, gets better for Republicans between now and the midterms; the Iranians want to humiliate Trump and Jimmy Carter him, and they're timing their moves to the American political calendar. They agree Democrats are either picking up two Senate seats or six with very little in between, and predict Greg Abbott will have to spend real money to win in Texas. Plus: why in-person interviews still beat remote ones, the disappearance of the old guard of Tennessee Republican politics, how Buttigieg's sexuality might factor into a national campaign, why online small-dollar money means Democrats no longer need to court only big donors — and whether UVA can actually contend in football this year. Upgrade your everyday. Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Jonathan Martin joins The Chuck ToddCast 01:30 Why in-person interviews are so much better than remote 03:30 The old guard of GOP politics in Tennessee are gone 05:30 The governing wing of each party aren’t agreeing with the voters 06:15 How does Pete Buttigieg navigate carrying “Biden baggage”? 06:45 Pete is a creature of the institutions, he won’t burn down the house 07:30 The left won’t ever trust Pete’s establishment credentials 08:30 How Pete’s sexuality could affect a presidential run 09:30 Is his future more in an advisor role than an elected official? 12:00 If AOC runs in 2028, she’ll be the lead car in the progressive lane 13:30 The question surrounding AOC is “will she or won’t she run” 14:00 The presidential campaign will be shaped by November midterms 14:30 Do the Dems go with their head or their heart in 28? 16:45 Insurgencies happen in this environment for party out of power 18:15 Nothing gets better between now and the midterms for Republicans 19:45 The Iranians want to humiliate Trump and “Jimmy Carter” him 20:45 Besides Vance, Rubio and Youngkin, who else might run for the GOP? 21:30 Who carries the Tucker Carlson banner in ‘28? 23:45 Vance was not a good candidate when he ran for senate 24:30 Vance needed Trump & Peter Thiel to get him over the finish line 25:30 Rubio’s campaigns were challenging the person whose turn it was 26:45 You don’t want to be seen as one of the “donor candidates” 27:30 Vance’s biggest challenge will be of the Tucker model 28:00 The far left is stronger than the far right 31:00 Democrats primary calendar designed to stymie progressives 32:00 Impact of South Carolina going first 33:30 AOC would clear progressive lane & be formidable in crowded field 34:30 Not at all convinced that Jon Ossoff runs in ‘28 35:00 Democrats have a type, and Ossoff checks all those boxes 36:15 Abdul El-Sayed could be formidable as a presidential candidate 37:00 AOC could emerge from South Carolina in a strong position 37:30 AOC held her own speaking at Ebenezer Baptist church 38:15 Not an accident AOC reemerged after El-Sayed’s win 40:15 AOC has been smart and careful to pick her spots during primaries 41:30 What will keep prominent Dems from running? 42:00 There’s lots of Dem donor money online, don’t need only big $ donors 43:30 Dems are either picking up two senate seats… or six 44:30 How cemented is the red/blue map? 47:00 Kansas could be ‘06 Indiana but Dem hasn’t won senate seat since 30s 48:15 Voters don’t like the public school funding cuts for vouchers 49:30 Greg Abbott will have to spend big to win his race 50:00 Will UVA be a contender in football?See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Chuck Todd unpacks David Crowley's astonishing photo-finish win over Francesca Hong in Wisconsin — a race Crowley dropped out of, re-entered with Tony Evers' backing, and then won by roughly 3,200 votes — and argues national Democrats are far more relieved than they'll ever admit. Had Hong won, she'd have become a face of the party while being forced to spend the fall answering for past statements about defunding police, abolishing prisons, and canceling Thanksgiving rather than talking about the economy, handing Republicans an absurdly easy story to tell. Chuck credits Tony Evers for refusing to fence-sit and mounting what amounted to an emergency rescue operation, while noting Crowley isn't remotely "establishment" — he came from genuinely modest roots and ran a campaign largely defined by what he wasn't. Chuck identifies Hong's central unforced error as nationalizing her race in the closing weeks, a fundraising-driven instinct in an era where media appearances increasingly function as fundraising appeals, forgetting that the national online audience and the local electorate are not the same people. Mamdani stayed disciplined and won; Hong drifted into boutique cultural debates and lost. But Chuck cautions against reading this as a repudiation of the left: Peggy Flanagan won in Minnesota, progressives are doing better this cycle than they have in years, and the 2027 House will be younger and slightly further left. The real structural lesson is that progressives struggle in higher-turnout and open primaries, still face a persistent obstacle with African American primary voters, and — most tellingly — keep getting rejected by the working-class voters they orient their entire message toward, which is more than a messaging glitch. Abdul El-Sayed emerges a quiet winner here, now much harder to lump in with the DSA, and Chuck notes that neither AOC nor Bernie ever endorsed Hong. The rest of the monologue is a run of results that keep pointing the same direction. Trump-endorsed candidates keep losing primaries: Mike Lindell was trounced in Minnesota, Darline Graham didn't clear a third of the vote and is no lock in her runoff, and Chuck's read is that Trump's grip is measurably slipping. Fourteen-term Congressman John Larson lost his primary, part of the highest incumbent-loss rate since 1970 — in a genuine wave, Chuck says, the House could see north of 25% turnover. On Iran, he echoes Chris Christie's warning that this war turns Trump into Jimmy Carter: Iran has issued a list of demands that amounts to an "F you" ransom note, is openly watching the American election calendar and timing its moves accordingly, and — just as in 1980 — the humiliation itself is the point. All of it, Chuck notes, was Trump's own choice. He closes somewhere unexpected: giving Mark Zuckerberg genuine credit. In his 6,500-word manifesto, Zuckerberg argued that the real danger of AI is the concentration of power, writing that hoping an absolute power will benevolently provide for humanity has historically never ended well — and committing Meta to a review process before models go public. Chuck notes the argument is being made by a deeply self-interested party and that the important parts got buried in what was really a debate with Sam Altman, but he singles out one thing worth emulating: Meta funneling data center tax revenue back into teacher bonuses and job training. Communities hosting this infrastructure have to win too, and he hopes more tech CEOs adopt that philosophy. Finally, Chuck reveals his ToddCast Top 5 list of biggest non-presidential primary upsets, which David Crowley’s win taking the top spot. He also answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and weighs in on the highly suspicious sale of the Los Angeles Lakers to Jared Kushner’s brother. Thanks to our sponsors: Upgrade your everyday. Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 04:00 Unpacking David Crowley’s win over Francesca Hong in WI 04:45 Crowley got out, then back in to the race… yet still won 05:45 If Hong had won, she would have become a face of the Dem party 06:15 Hong had past statements that would have been problematic 07:15 She would have been forced to talk about Thanksgiving, not economics 08:15 Her win would have been an easy story for Republicans to tell 08:45 Abdul El-Sayed is a winner here, harder to be lumped in with DSA 10:00 National Democrats are more relieved than they will admit 11:00 Independents don’t want either party to let extremes take over 12:00 Democrats can make the distinction between themselves & socialism 13:30 The progressives didn’t blow it, Peggy Flannagan won in Minnesota 15:00 African-American primary voters remain an obstacle for progressives 16:30 Progressives gear toward working class voters, yet are rejected by them 17:30 Not winning working class voters is more than a messaging glitch 18:30 Structure of the primary has major impact on success of progressives 19:15 Progressives run into trouble in higher turnout primaries 20:30 Open primaries result in less extremist nominees 21:15 Hong’s big unforced error was campaigning nationally in final weeks 22:00 Nationalizing your race is about fundraising 22:45 Media appearances increasingly function as fundraising appearances 23:30 National online audience & local electorate aren’t the same people 24:15 Mamdani had a disciplined message & succeeded, Hong didn’t 25:00 Ideological candidates can win when the electorate agrees with them 26:00 Ideological movements forget they can sound weird to the normies 26:30 The establishment was dangerously close to screwing this up 28:15 The establishment side of the race was a chaotic mess 29:15 Tony Evers had to mount an emergency rescue operation for Crowley 30:30 David Crowley isn’t very “establishment”, came from modest roots 31:30 Tony Evers deserves credit for putting his capital behind Crowley 32:30 Notable AOC, Sanders and top progressives didn’t endorse Hong 33:45 Getting into boutique cultural debates ends up being a problem 34:30 In Michigan & Wisconsin, the campaigns that physically showed up won 36:15 If Crowley wins & El-Sayed loses, there will be a clear lesson for Dems 38:15 Tony Evers didn’t fence sit, he picked a side and it worked 40:00 Flannagan’s win dispels idea of total repudiation of progressives 42:00 Flannagan had establishment credentials while being progressive 42:30 Progressives aren’t running the table, but are doing better this cycle 43:15 The Democratic house in ‘27 will be younger & slightly further left 44:30 Crowley’s campaign was largely about what he wasn’t 46:00 There could be multiple demographic “first” Democratic governors 47:45 Could these new primary winners end up on a presidential ticket? 49:45 Progressives are doing better, but haven’t won control of the Dem party 50:45 Democrats can blunt the narrative that the socialists are taking over 51:15 Trump endorsed candidates keep losing their primaries 51:45 Mike Lindell was trounced in Minnesota primary 52:45 Trump endorsed Darline Graham didn’t get 1/3rd of the vote 53:15 Graham isn’t a shoo-in in the runoff 55:30 Trump’s endorsement isn’t a guaranteed win, his grip is slipping 57:00 14-term congressman John Larson loses his primary 57:45 Most incumbents have lost reelection this year since 1970 58:15 In a wave election, could see over 25% turnover of the House 59:30 Chris Christie says Iran war will turn Trump into Jimmy Carter 1:00:00 Iran is humiliating Trump, and it was all Trump’s choice 1:00:30 Iran issues list of demands, basically an “F You” ransom note 1:01:30 Iran are watching the American election calendar & acting accordingly 1:02:15 In 1980, the humiliation of Carter was the point, Iran sent a message 1:03:30 Mark Zuckerberg deserves credit for something he said 1:04:15 Zuckerberg argued that AI driven concentration of power is the danger 1:04:45 He says there’s no benevolent superintelligence held by one company 1:05:15 Committed to a review board to sign off on models before going public 1:05:45 At least the argument is being made… even if by a self-interested party 1:06:30 Revenue from Meta data centers has been paid to teachers & job training 1:07:15 Meta reinvesting in communities with data centers is the right model 1:08:00 The manifesto was a debate with Sam Altman, buried the important things 1:09:15 Hope more tech CEO’s share his philosophy. Communities have to win too 1:15:00 ToddCast Top 5 biggest non-presidential primary upsets 1:17:00 #5 Joe Crowley loses to AOC 1:18:00 #4 Carol Moseley Braun 1:18:45 #3 Andrew Gillum 1:19:45 #2 Eric Cantor 1:20:45 #1 David Crawley 1:22:15 Honorable mentions 1:23:45 Ask Chuck 1:24:00 If Talarico wins close, could partisan officials mess with the outcome? 1:27:00 What makes a vice presidency successful & who makes your top 5? 1:34:45 What does it say about us that voters knew who Trump was and reelected him? 1:38:45 Can Jewish leaders like Pritzker & Ossoff campaign effectively for El-Sayed? 1:41:15 Lakers sold again, for $12B to Josh Kushner and Bob Iger 1:42:15 Mark Walter bought Lakers 14 months ago for $10B, and is already out 1:43:00 This story could be nothing… but the details warrant suspicion 1:44:30 Mark Walter’s businesses are under federal investigation right now 1:45:30 Nobody has been charged or accused of anything yet 1:46:15 Why did Walter sell so fast is not a rhetorical question anymore 1:47:00 Kushner was set to buy a piece of the World Cup, until boycott threats 1:48:00 Anyone close to Trump will be assumed guilty until proven innocent 1:49:30 Maybe everything is on the up and up… but the details are shockingSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Chuck Todd unpacks David Crowley's astonishing photo-finish win over Francesca Hong in Wisconsin — a race Crowley dropped out of, re-entered with Tony Evers' backing, and then won by roughly 3,200 votes — and argues national Democrats are far more relieved than they'll ever admit. Had Hong won, she'd have become a face of the party while being forced to spend the fall answering for past statements about defunding police, abolishing prisons, and canceling Thanksgiving rather than talking about the economy, handing Republicans an absurdly easy story to tell. Chuck credits Tony Evers for refusing to fence-sit and mounting what amounted to an emergency rescue operation, while noting Crowley isn't remotely "establishment" — he came from genuinely modest roots and ran a campaign largely defined by what he wasn't. Chuck identifies Hong's central unforced error as nationalizing her race in the closing weeks, a fundraising-driven instinct in an era where media appearances increasingly function as fundraising appeals, forgetting that the national online audience and the local electorate are not the same people. Mamdani stayed disciplined and won; Hong drifted into boutique cultural debates and lost. But Chuck cautions against reading this as a repudiation of the left: Peggy Flanagan won in Minnesota, progressives are doing better this cycle than they have in years, and the 2027 House will be younger and slightly further left. The real structural lesson is that progressives struggle in higher-turnout and open primaries, still face a persistent obstacle with African American primary voters, and — most tellingly — keep getting rejected by the working-class voters they orient their entire message toward, which is more than a messaging glitch. Abdul El-Sayed emerges a quiet winner here, now much harder to lump in with the DSA, and Chuck notes that neither AOC nor Bernie ever endorsed Hong. The rest of the monologue is a run of results that keep pointing the same direction. Trump-endorsed candidates keep losing primaries: Mike Lindell was trounced in Minnesota, Darline Graham didn't clear a third of the vote and is no lock in her runoff, and Chuck's read is that Trump's grip is measurably slipping. Fourteen-term Congressman John Larson lost his primary, part of the highest incumbent-loss rate since 1970 — in a genuine wave, Chuck says, the House could see north of 25% turnover. On Iran, he echoes Chris Christie's warning that this war turns Trump into Jimmy Carter: Iran has issued a list of demands that amounts to an "F you" ransom note, is openly watching the American election calendar and timing its moves accordingly, and — just as in 1980 — the humiliation itself is the point. All of it, Chuck notes, was Trump's own choice. He closes somewhere unexpected: giving Mark Zuckerberg genuine credit. In his 6,500-word manifesto, Zuckerberg argued that the real danger of AI is the concentration of power, writing that hoping an absolute power will benevolently provide for humanity has historically never ended well — and committing Meta to a review process before models go public. Chuck notes the argument is being made by a deeply self-interested party and that the important parts got buried in what was really a debate with Sam Altman, but he singles out one thing worth emulating: Meta funneling data center tax revenue back into teacher bonuses and job training. Communities hosting this infrastructure have to win too, and he hopes more tech CEOs adopt that philosophy. Then, Ben Wikler, the former Wisconsin Democratic Party chair and author of the new book This Is the Plan joins the Chuck Toddcast to argue that Democrats keep making the same category error: they keep winning change elections and then failing to deliver change, because they're trying to fix policy without first fixing the system that determines who gets to make policy. Wikler's framing is memorable and a little cheeky — you have to win the ring of power and then cast it into Mount Doom — but his point is serious. When the right wins power, it immediately restructures the system to entrench itself; Democrats win and then govern as though the rules are fixed. His plan runs through the state level, where free and fair elections are actually secured, and demands ending the filibuster and reforming the Supreme Court, including term limits for justices, because campaign finance reform is impossible without a Court willing to allow it. Wikler argues America is in the greatest period of political instability in its history, that inequality now exceeds the Gilded Age, that gerrymandering has left millions of people without a meaningful vote, and that both party bases increasingly want to fight more than they want to win — while swing and non-voters have simply given up on the system itself. He rejects the tired rebuilders-versus-renovators binary: FDR's Social Security pitch was a huge swing, incrementalism was the only path to Obamacare, and the actual art of politics is starting from values and vision and then figuring out what can pass. The conversation gets specific about Wisconsin and about trust. Wikler pushes back on the idea that Francesca Hong is too "Madison" for a statewide race, notes she's spent years traveling and listening across the state, and calls Tom Tiffany an election denier who is genuinely beatable in a cycle where affordability is the central issue. He and Chuck work through the puzzle of why Tony Evers' calm, steady approach succeeded where Biden's didn't — Evers came out forcefully against Dobbs, and, more fundamentally, you have to convince a majority of voters that government can actually work, which means doing what you said you'd do and then relentlessly telling people you did it. Wikler points to pandemic relief as the cautionary tale: those programs dramatically improved life for lower-income voters, the child tax credit cut child poverty in half, and then it all expired and Democrats got punished for the loss rather than credited for the gain — with an extension that had bipartisan support dying anyway, because the filibuster exists largely to deprive the other side of a win. He credits Ken Martin for investing in state parties, argues Democrats don't need a 50-state strategy so much as fifty different state strategies since the coalition looks different everywhere, and concedes that Trump has been the most successful Republican of this era, spawning an army of mini-mes modeling themselves on him. And yes, Chuck asks the obvious question — why not run for Senate yourself? Finally, Chuck reveals his ToddCast Top 5 list of biggest non-presidential primary upsets, which David Crowley’s win taking the top spot. He also answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and weighs in on the highly suspicious sale of the Los Angeles Lakers to Jared Kushner’s brother. Thanks to our sponsors: Upgrade your everyday. Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. Timeline: 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 04:00 Unpacking David Crowley’s win over Francesca Hong in WI 04:45 Crowley got out, then back in to the race… yet still won 05:45 If Hong had won, she would have become a face of the Dem party 06:15 Hong had past statements that would have been problematic 07:15 She would have been forced to talk about Thanksgiving, not economics 08:15 Her win would have been an easy story for Republicans to tell 08:45 Abdul El-Sayed is a winner here, harder to be lumped in with DSA 10:00 National Democrats are more relieved than they will admit 11:00 Independents don’t want either party to let extremes take over 12:00 Democrats can make the distinction between themselves & socialism 13:30 The progressives didn’t blow it, Peggy Flannagan won in Minnesota 15:00 African-American primary voters remain an obstacle for progressives 16:30 Progressives gear toward working class voters, yet are rejected by them 17:30 Not winning working class voters is more than a messaging glitch 18:30 Structure of the primary has major impact on success of progressives 19:15 Progressives run into trouble in higher turnout primaries 20:30 Open primaries result in less extremist nominees 21:15 Hong’s big unforced error was campaigning nationally in final weeks 22:00 Nationalizing your race is about fundraising 22:45 Media appearances increasingly function as fundraising appearances 23:30 National online audience & local electorate aren’t the same people 24:15 Mamdani had a disciplined message & succeeded, Hong didn’t 25:00 Ideological candidates can win when the electorate agrees with them 26:00 Ideological movements forget they can sound weird to the normies 26:30 The establishment was dangerously close to screwing this up 28:15 The establishment side of the race was a chaotic mess 29:15 Tony Evers had to mount an emergency rescue operation for Crowley 30:30 David Crowley isn’t very “establishment”, came from modest roots 31:30 Tony Evers deserves credit for putting his capital behind Crowley 32:30 Notable AOC, Sanders and top progressives didn’t endorse Hong 33:45 Getting into boutique cultural debates ends up being a problem 34:30 In Michigan & Wisconsin, the campaigns that physically showed up won 36:15 If Crowley wins & El-Sayed loses, there will be a clear lesson for Dems 38:15 Tony Evers didn’t fence sit, he picked a side and it worked 40:00 Flannagan’s win dispels idea of total repudiation of progressives 42:00 Flannagan had establishment credentials while being progressive 42:30 Progressives aren’t running the table, but are doing better this cycle 43:15 The Democratic house in ‘27 will be younger & slightly further left 44:30 Crowley’s campaign was largely about what he wasn’t 46:00 There could be multiple demographic “first” Democratic governors 47:45 Could these new primary winners end up on a presidential ticket? 49:45 Progressives are doing better, but haven’t won control of the Dem party 50:45 Democrats can blunt the narrative that the socialists are taking over 51:15 Trump endorsed candidates keep losing their primaries 51:45 Mike Lindell was trounced in Minnesota primary 52:45 Trump endorsed Darline Graham didn’t get 1/3rd of the vote 53:15 Graham isn’t a shoo-in in the runoff 55:30 Trump’s endorsement isn’t a guaranteed win, his grip is slipping 57:00 14-term congressman John Larson loses his primary 57:45 Most incumbents have lost reelection this year since 1970 58:15 In a wave election, could see over 25% turnover of the House 59:30 Chris Christie says Iran war will turn Trump into Jimmy Carter 1:00:00 Iran is humiliating Trump, and it was all Trump’s choice 1:00:30 Iran issues list of demands, basically an “F You” ransom note 1:01:30 Iran are watching the American election calendar & acting accordingly 1:02:15 In 1980, the humiliation of Carter was the point, Iran sent a message 1:03:30 Mark Zuckerberg deserves credit for something he said 1:04:15 Zuckerberg argued that AI driven concentration of power is the danger 1:04:45 He says there’s no benevolent superintelligence held by one company 1:05:15 Committed to a review board to sign off on models before going public 1:05:45 At least the argument is being made… even if by a self-interested party 1:06:30 Revenue from Meta data centers has been paid to teachers & job training 1:07:15 Meta reinvesting in communities with data centers is the right model 1:08:00 The manifesto was a debate with Sam Altman, buried the important things 1:09:15 Hope more tech CEO’s share his philosophy. Communities have to win too 1:16:45 Ben Wikler joins The Chuck ToddCast 1:17:45 Ben’s new book is “This Is The Plan” 1:18:00 What is the plan? 1:18:30 To get political change we need, we need to change the system 1:19:15 To secure free & fair elections, need to win at the state level 1:19:45 We need an end to the filibuster and Supreme Court reform 1:20:30 There’s no one office or candidate to get us out of this mess 1:22:30 We need to win the ring of power, then cast it into Mount Doom 1:23:00 When the right wins power, they immediately change systems 1:24:00 We keep having change elections, then not getting change 1:26:15 We’re in the greatest period of political instability in American history 1:29:15 Both party bases want to fight more than want to win 1:30:15 We’re so gerrymandered, people don’t really get a vote 1:31:45 Swing/Non voters have given up on the system itself 1:36:15 Are rebuilders or renovators going to win the argument? 1:36:45 FDR’s social security pitch was a big swing 1:39:15 Incrimentalism was the only way to pass Obamacare 1:40:00 The art of politics is values/vision, then figure out what can actually pass 1:41:00 A party should be able to change laws, then face the voters 1:42:15 Need to reform the Supreme Court to reform campaign finance laws 1:43:00 Advocate for term limits for Supreme Court justices in the book 1:43:30 Inequality is now worse than it was during the Gilded Age 1:44:45 Is Francesca Hong too “Madison” of a candidate for Wisconsin gov? 1:45:30 Hong has been traveling the state & listening for years 1:46:30 Wisconsin Dem gov primary has been topsy turvy 1:47:30 Tom Tiffany is an election denier & beatable candidate 1:48:45 Affordability is the central issue this election cycle 1:51:30 Why did “calming the waters” work for Tony Evers, but not Joe Biden? 1:52:15 Evers came out very strongly against Dobbs 1:53:00 You have to convince a majority of the public that government works 1:55:00 Trust is earned by doing what you say you’ll do, then highlighting it 1:56:30 Pandemic relief had a massive positive effect on lower income voters 1:57:00 Those programs stopped, and voters punished Dems for it 1:57:45 Child tax credit cut child poverty in half, great accomplishment for Dems 1:58:15 There was bipartisan support for extended tax credit, still didn’t get done 1:58:45 Filibuster is used to deprive the other side from getting a win 2:01:15 Politicians can lay out a succession plan, but voters get their say 2:02:45 Politicians are limited in setting out a succession plan 2:04:15 How big should the Democratic tent be? 2:05:15 The coalition looks different in different states 2:06:45 Donald Trump has been the most successful GOP politician of this era 2:07:30 Every Republican politician looks to Trump as the model 2:08:00 Trump has created an army of “mini-mes” 2:09:45 What Ken Martin is doing right: Building state parties 2:12:30 Democrats don’t need a 50 state strategy, they need 50 state strategies 2:13:30 You build a local brand through your actions over time 2:14:15 When did you first think about running for office? 2:16:15 Support Tammy Baldwin’s bill to provide live Packers games 2:17:45 Most excited about Jordan Love in the upcoming season 2:19:00 Why wouldn’t you run for the senate? 2:20:30 ToddCast Top 5 biggest non-presidential primary upsets 2:22:30 #5 Joe Crowley loses to AOC 2:23:30 #4 Carol Moseley Braun 2:24:15 #3 Andrew Gillum 2:25:15 #2 Eric Cantor 2:26:15 #1 David Crawley 2:27:45 Honorable mentions 2:29:15 Ask Chuck 2:29:30 If Talarico wins close, could partisan officials mess with the outcome? 2:32:30 What makes a vice presidency successful & who makes your top 5? 2:40:15 What does it say about us that voters knew who Trump was and reelected him? 2:44:15 Can Jewish leaders like Pritzker & Ossoff campaign effectively for El-Sayed? 2:46:45 Lakers sold again, for $12B to Josh Kushner and Bob Iger 2:47:45 Mark Walter bought Lakers 14 months ago for $10B, and is already out 2:48:30 This story could be nothing… but the details warrant suspicion 2:50:00 Mark Walter’s businesses are under federal investigation right now 2:51:00 Nobody has been charged or accused of anything yet 2:51:45 Why did Walter sell so fast is not a rhetorical question anymore 2:52:30 Kushner was set to buy a piece of the World Cup, until boycott threats 2:53:30 Anyone close to Trump will be assumed guilty until proven innocent 2:55:00 Maybe everything is on the up and up… but the details are shockingSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Ben Wikler, the former Wisconsin Democratic Party chair and author of the new book This Is the Plan joins the Chuck Toddcast to argue that Democrats keep making the same category error: they keep winning change elections and then failing to deliver change, because they're trying to fix policy without first fixing the system that determines who gets to make policy. Wikler's framing is memorable and a little cheeky — you have to win the ring of power and then cast it into Mount Doom — but his point is serious. When the right wins power, it immediately restructures the system to entrench itself; Democrats win and then govern as though the rules are fixed. His plan runs through the state level, where free and fair elections are actually secured, and demands ending the filibuster and reforming the Supreme Court, including term limits for justices, because campaign finance reform is impossible without a Court willing to allow it. Wikler argues America is in the greatest period of political instability in its history, that inequality now exceeds the Gilded Age, that gerrymandering has left millions of people without a meaningful vote, and that both party bases increasingly want to fight more than they want to win — while swing and non-voters have simply given up on the system itself. He rejects the tired rebuilders-versus-renovators binary: FDR's Social Security pitch was a huge swing, incrementalism was the only path to Obamacare, and the actual art of politics is starting from values and vision and then figuring out what can pass. The conversation gets specific about Wisconsin and about trust. Wikler pushes back on the idea that Francesca Hong is too "Madison" for a statewide race, notes she's spent years traveling and listening across the state, and calls Tom Tiffany an election denier who is genuinely beatable in a cycle where affordability is the central issue. He and Chuck work through the puzzle of why Tony Evers' calm, steady approach succeeded where Biden's didn't — Evers came out forcefully against Dobbs, and, more fundamentally, you have to convince a majority of voters that government can actually work, which means doing what you said you'd do and then relentlessly telling people you did it. Wikler points to pandemic relief as the cautionary tale: those programs dramatically improved life for lower-income voters, the child tax credit cut child poverty in half, and then it all expired and Democrats got punished for the loss rather than credited for the gain — with an extension that had bipartisan support dying anyway, because the filibuster exists largely to deprive the other side of a win. He credits Ken Martin for investing in state parties, argues Democrats don't need a 50-state strategy so much as fifty different state strategies since the coalition looks different everywhere, and concedes that Trump has been the most successful Republican of this era, spawning an army of mini-mes modeling themselves on him. And yes, Chuck asks the obvious question — why not run for Senate yourself? Thanks to the sponsors of The Chuck ToddCast: Upgrade your everyday. Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. 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Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Ben Wikler joins The Chuck ToddCast 01:00 Ben’s new book is “This Is The Plan” 01:15 What is the plan? 01:45 To get political change we need, we need to change the system 02:30 To secure free & fair elections, need to win at the state level 03:00 We need an end to the filibuster and Supreme Court reform 03:45 There’s no one office or candidate to get us out of this mess 05:45 We need to win the ring of power, then cast it into Mount Doom 06:15 When the right wins power, they immediately change systems 07:15 We keep having change elections, then not getting change 09:30 We’re in the greatest period of political instability in American history 12:30 Both party bases want to fight more than want to win 13:30 We’re so gerrymandered, people don’t really get a vote 15:00 Swing/Non voters have given up on the system itself 19:30 Are rebuilders or renovators going to win the argument? 20:00 FDR’s social security pitch was a big swing 22:30 Incrimentalism was the only way to pass Obamacare 23:15 The art of politics is values/vision, then figure out what can actually pass 24:15 A party should be able to change laws, then face the voters 25:30 Need to reform the Supreme Court to reform campaign finance laws 26:15 Advocate for term limits for Supreme Court justices in the book 26:45 Inequality is now worse than it was during the Gilded Age 28:00 Is Francesca Hong too “Madison” of a candidate for Wisconsin gov? 28:45 Hong has been traveling the state & listening for years 29:45 Wisconsin Dem gov primary has been topsy turvy 30:45 Tom Tiffany is an election denier & beatable candidate 32:00 Affordability is the central issue this election cycle 34:45 Why did “calming the waters” work for Tony Evers, but not Joe Biden? 35:30 Evers came out very strongly against Dobbs 36:15 You have to convince a majority of the public that government works 38:15 Trust is earned by doing what you say you’ll do, then highlighting it 39:45 Pandemic relief had a massive positive effect on lower income voters 40:15 Those programs stopped, and voters punished Dems for it 41:00 Child tax credit cut child poverty in half, great accomplishment for Dems 41:30 There was bipartisan support for extended tax credit, still didn’t get done 42:00 Filibuster is used to deprive the other side from getting a win 44:30 Politicians can lay out a succession plan, but voters get their say 46:00 Politicians are limited in setting out a succession plan 47:30 How big should the Democratic tent be? 48:30 The coalition looks different in different states 50:00 Donald Trump has been the most successful GOP politician of this era 50:45 Every Republican politician looks to Trump as the model 51:15 Trump has created an army of “mini-mes” 53:00 What Ken Martin is doing right: Building state parties 55:45 Democrats don’t need a 50 state strategy, they need 50 state strategies 56:45 You build a local brand through your actions over time 57:30 When did you first think about running for office? 59:30 Support Tammy Baldwin’s bill to provide live Packers games 1:01:00 Most excited about Jordan Love in the upcoming season 1:02:15 Why wouldn’t you run for the senate?See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
With 84 days to the midterms and a six-state primary night ahead, Chuck Todd and Chris Cillizza open on Chuck's least-hedged read of the cycle: Democrats haven't had a good summer, but Republicans have had a worse one, and every macro trend points to something in the neighborhood of 30 House seats and six or seven Senate seats. The only thing holding him back from calling it a pasting is the Democratic brand problem — and they dig into the polling behind it, including why Hillary Clinton's warning that the socialism-and-communism attack could land is worth taking seriously. That leads to the sharpest segment of the episode: whether Abdul El-Sayed needs to give a version of the Kennedy "I don't work for the Pope" or Obama race speech about being a Muslim American, why the traditional consultant advice to ignore it is wrong, and where he'd give it. They then flip the question to the other side, asking whether Josh Shapiro, Jon Ossoff, Rahm Emanuel, or JB Pritzker will face a parallel demand to publicly separate loyalty to the Constitution from loyalty to Israel. The back half is a clinic in reading political spin. Tim Scott's claim that Republicans will hold 54 Senate seats prompts a broader riff on why partisans now get punished for telling the truth, and why both the political industry and the media have built incentives against saying what's obvious. They break down AOC's remarkable weekend — announcing she's freezing her eggs, then telling Jon Karl she hasn't ruled out 2028 — and what it signals about staking a claim to the progressive lane before El-Sayed can. Chuck makes the case that parenthood is a real asset in presidential politics, and they assess whether Ossoff, now climbing the prediction markets, has the hunger and stamina for it, plus why Shapiro sometimes reads as a try-hard. They close with a genuinely angry exchange about Bill Cassidy's Blanche vote, the threats reshaping how senators vote, and a Nats-and-Reds baseball detour. Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 84 days out and a six-state primary night ahead 00:45 Previewing the primaries 01:37 Republicans had a worse summer than Democrats 02:49 Trump makes it harder. Congress did nothing to earn reelection 03:14 Why the macro says 30 House seats and 6-7 Senate seats 04:02 Does the nominee even matter in an environment this bad? 05:14 Hillary Clinton's warning about the socialism-communism attack 06:14 In wave years, the losing party always thinks it's found a lifeline 06:45 Where the communism attack could actually work 08:27 Did "Comrade Kamala" actually help Trump in 2024? 09:42 The attack only lands if a seed has already been planted 10:47 The mailbag question: Islamophobia in the Michigan race 11:11 Using El-Sayed's full name isn't even a dog whistle 12:10 Should El-Sayed give an Islam speech? 12:55 Why the consultant advice — stay on affordability — is wrong here 14:13 The Obama-and-Reverend-Wright precedent 15:45 Mike Rogers, Hassan Piker & a false attribution in circulation 17:24 Jackie Robinson, Kennedy, and breaking barriers 20:15 The flip side: will a Jewish candidate face the same demand? 22:10 The line each of them may have to draw on Netanyahu 23:02 Fever swamp vs. what voters actually care about 23:33 The insulting premise, and the Catholic parallel from the 1950s 25:05 Tim Scott tells Manu Raju Republicans will have 54 seats 26:51 Why partisans now get punished for telling the truth 28:49 Scott on Paxton, and what you're required to say out loud 30:42 Why they do the live streams — no election-night patty cake 31:47 The rare politicians who still say it plainly 32:41 AOC announces she's freezing her eggs 33:26 AOC says she's open to 2028 34:45 The El-Sayed factor: a swing-state progressive with more juice 36:23 Chuck's argument: you're a stronger candidate if you're a parent 37:52 Bush, Obama, Biden & families as political assets 38:51 Even Trump's kids softened him in 2016 41:08 The Howard Stern statistic about listeners who hate you 41:24 Ossoff passes Newsom in the Kalshi and Polymarket 2028 odds 42:10 Why Ossoff clearly has the ambition 44:08 Ossoff and Pritzker could bridge the party's divide 45:17 Pritzker's own money and his own record 46:07 Does Mark Kelly have the hunger? Does Wes Moore? 47:47 Where Shapiro crosses from wanting it to trying too hard 48:28 Des Moines in November, and why nobody likes a try-hard 49:18 Cassidy & Blanche 50:40 The part that doesn't get reported: threats to families 51:21 You signed up to put the public ahead of yourself 53:15 Trump tells Punchbowl the voters are angry at Republicans, not him 53:46 Will he actually spend the super PAC money? 54:04 The truth-serum question: would Trump rather be replaced by a Democrat? 54:20 Nats sweep the Reds 55:32 What is wrong with the Cincinnati Reds? 57:42 The Nats' 34-year-old analytics managerSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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