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Alfonso Peccatiello built a following of 500,000 on LinkedIn by doing something radical – by being a real, authentic human in the fund world. And that authentic social presence helped him close investment deals for his new hedge fund, Palinuro Capital. Alfonso's story is proof that it pays to challenge the status quo and to put people (and connections) first – even in a numbers-obsessed industry. Want the full story? Join Alfonso and Stacy as they discuss:Alfonso's backstory: How a car accident sparked his obsession with creating success on his own terms Why he's never afraid to repel the wrong investor How his willingness to repel, both on social media and in meetings, has helped him attract more of the right investors The lesson he learned as a $20B bond manager that has served him most as an entrepreneur (spoiler alert, it wasn't an investing technique) More About Alfonso PeccatielloAlfonso (Alf) Peccatiello is the CIO of the global macro hedge fund Palinuro Capital. Alf was born in Southern Italy, roughly 1,000 km away from the closest financial center, yet his dream was to run his own hedge fund. To get there, he had an idea: share macro analysis and frameworks with the world through his research firm, The Macro Compass, first, establish relationships, and only after spinning out his macro hedge fund. After scoring the largest asset managers in the world as clients of his research, here we are: his global macro hedge fund, Palinuro Capital, is ready to launch in January 2025. As a proper Southern Italian, Alf stands by three culinary rules: no cappuccino unless it's breakfast, no pineapple on pizza, and never break pasta in pieces!Want More Help With Storytelling? + Subscribe to my newsletter to get a weekly email that helps you use your words to power your growth: https://www.stacyhavener.com/subscribe - - -Make The Boutique Investment Collective part of your Billion Dollar Backstory. Gain access to invaluable resources, expert coaches, and a supportive community of other boutique founders, fund managers, and investment pros. Join Havener Capital's exclusive membership - - -Make The Boutique Investment Collective part of your Billion Dollar Backstory. Gain access to invaluable resources, expert coaches, and a supportive community of other boutique founders, fund managers, and investment pros. Join Havener Capital's exclusive membership
Alfonso Peccatiello's (also known as MacroAlf on X) approach to the financial markets is rooted in macroeconomic insights, identifying market imbalances, and disciplined risk management. Having managed a $20 billion fixed-income portfolio, Alf has seen firsthand how understanding market dynamics and timing can unlock significant value. His strategies focus on spotting crowded trades, leveraging market dislocations, and carefully sizing positions to maximize returns while minimizing risk. About Alfonso Peccatiello: Alfonso is the founder and CEO of The Macro Compass, a firm dedicated to democratizing access to professional macro analysis, tools, and portfolio strategies. Leveraging his extensive experience managing large institutional investment portfolios, The Macro Compass provides unparalleled financial education, unique macroeconomic insights, and actionable investment strategies. Prior to launching The Macro Compass, Alfonso served as the head of investments for ING Germany, overseeing a $20 billion portfolio. He also launched a discretionary global macro hedge fund, Palinuro Capital, in 2024. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Fed is "cutting away as much uncertainty as they can" says Alfonso Peccatiello. The author of "The Macro Compass" details the latest Fed Put and why he's starting a hedge fund now. Plus, why using probabilities might be a better overall approach to understanding the Fed.
“Artificial stability brings instability into the system…when you try to push a balloon underwater, you can keep it under water but then the pressure starts building...”— Macro AlfMacro Alf is the founder of The Macro Compass, an investment strategy firm. In this interview, we discuss QE & debt in Japan, instability from artificial stability, if a recession is imminent, and the globally managed fiat decline.- - - -This episode's sponsors: IREN - Bitcoin Mining. Done Sustainably Swan Bitcoin - Invest in Bitcoin with Swan Bitcasino - The Future of Gaming is here Ledger- State of the art Bitcoin hardware wallet Casa - Take control of your digital wealth -----WBD813 - Show Notes----- If you enjoy The What Bitcoin Did Podcast you can help support the show by doing the following: Become a Patronand get access to shows early or help contribute Make a tip: Bitcoin: 3FiC6w7eb3dkcaNHMAnj39ANTAkv8Ufi2S QR Codes: Bitcoin If you do send a tip then please email me so that I can say thank you Subscribe on iTunes | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | YouTube | Deezer| TuneIn | RSS FeedLeave a review on iTunesShare the show and episodes with your friends and family Subscribe to the newsletter on my websiteFollow me on Twitter Personal | Twitter Podcast | Instagram | Medium|YouTubeIf you are interested in sponsoring the show, you can read more about that here or please feel free to drop me an email to discuss options.
Macro Alf is the founder of The Macro Compass, an investment strategy firm. In this interview, we discuss QE & debt in Japan, instability from artificial stability, if a recession is imminent, and the globally managed fiat decline. – Show notes: https://www.whatbitcoindid.com/podcast/bitcoin-vs-the-fiat-decline This episode's sponsors: IREN - Bitcoin Mining. Done Sustainably. Swan Bitcoin - Invest in Bitcoin with Swan Ledger - State of the art Bitcoin hardware wallet Bitcasino - The Future of Gaming is here Casa - Take control of your digital wealth
Don't miss out on today's insightful conversation with Daniela Cambone, as Alfonso Peccatiello, founder and CEO of The Macro Compass, delves into the critical issues surrounding the amounting national debt, the devaluation of the U.S. dollar, and the rising trajectory of gold. Questions on Protecting Your Wealth with Gold & Silver? Schedule a Strategy Call Here ➡️ https://calendly.com/itmtrading/podcast or Call 866-349-3310
Since the October lows, stocks have roared back to record highs, and bonds have risen solidly as US 10yr Treasury yields have dropped from 5% to near 4% Will the bull run continue through the rest of 2024? It is an election year in America after all. Or, have the animal spirits carried assets to unsustainable prices, putting us in danger of a painful sell-off? To find out, we have to good fortune to hear from bond expert Alf Peccatiello of The Macro Compass. He predicts that the higher cost of debt brought on by higher interest rates will indeed start causing many over-leveraged companies to start buckling as $2+ trillion in US corporate debt matures between now and end of 2025. Follow Alf at https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ And if an accredited investor interested in learning more about his new macro fund, email Alf at fund@themacrocompass.com WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #bonds #unemployment #recession
Alfonso Peccatiello, founder of the Macro Compass, discusses the macro view of the current market and investor expectations. He challenges the narrative of a structurally stronger US economy and presents a contrarian perspective. Peccatiello highlights the ambiguous data and warning signs in the economy, particularly in relation to China's deleveraging process and the spillover ripple effects on other economies. Peccatiello emphasizes the importance of portfolio construction and diversification to protect purchasing power. He concludes by sharing his background and the launch of a macro fund. Takeaways Investors are adjusting their expectations based on the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates fewer times than initially anticipated. The prevailing narrative of a structurally stronger US economy may overlook the tightening of financial conditions and the potential spillover effects from China's deleveraging process. The data is ambiguous, with some parts of the economy showing signs of slowing down while others remain resilient. Portfolio construction should focus on diversification and protecting purchasing power, considering assets that are uncorrelated to one's job and the overall economy. Links: Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/macroalf The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.org/ Timestamps 00:00 Introduction 00:22 The macro view 03:08 Prevailing narrative of a stronger US economy, ‘party like it's 1995' 05:30 Alf's contrarian narrative 08:54 Ambiguous data and warning Ssgns 11:42 Spillover effects from China 15:41 Possible recession and risks 27:14 Conclusion
Macro Alf is the founder of The Macro Compass, an investment strategy firm. In this interview, we discuss government spending, debt & deficits as well as the death of the dollar and the role of Bitcoin in the macroeconomic environment. - Show notes: https://www.whatbitcoindid.com/podcast/will-the-dollar-implode This episode's sponsors: Iris Energy - Bitcoin Mining. Done Sustainably Swan Bitcoin - Invest in Bitcoin with Swan Ledger - State of the art Bitcoin hardware wallet Bitcasino - The Future of Gaming is here OpenSats - Support free and open source contributors CheatCode - Bedford, UK - April 12-13
“For the system to really collapse you actually need first the dollar to get stronger and effectively to suck everything into a black hole until it can implode.”— Macro AlfMacro Alf is the founder of The Macro Compass, an investment strategy firm. In this interview, we discuss government spending, debt & deficits as well as the death of the dollar and the role of Bitcoin in the macroeconomic environment.- - - - This episode's sponsors:IREN - Bitcoin Mining. Done Sustainably Swan Bitcoin - Invest in Bitcoin with SwanBitcasino - The Future of Gaming is hereLedger - State of the art Bitcoin hardware walletCheatCode - Bedford, UK - April 12-13OpenSats - Support free and open source contributors-----WBD776 - Show Notes-----If you enjoy The What Bitcoin Did Podcast you can help support the show by doing the following:Become a Patron and get access to shows early or help contributeMake a tip:Bitcoin: 3FiC6w7eb3dkcaNHMAnj39ANTAkv8Ufi2SQR Codes: BitcoinIf you do send a tip then please email me so that I can say thank youSubscribe on iTunes | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | YouTube | Deezer | TuneIn | RSS FeedLeave a review on iTunesShare the show and episodes with your friends and familySubscribe to the newsletter on my websiteFollow me on Twitter Personal | Twitter Podcast | Instagram | Medium | YouTubeIf you are interested in sponsoring the show, you can read more about that here or please feel free to drop me an email to discuss options.
Today's guest today is Alfonso Peccatiello but you may know him as Alf! He's the Founder & CEO of The Macro Compass, which provides financial education, macro insights and actionable investment ideas. In today's episode, Alf gives a masterclass on the bond market. He talks about Dr. Yield Curve and how yield curve inversions are related to recessions. He also talks about where he sees opportunity in the global equity markets, specifically emerging markets. As we wind down, Alf shares some hot takes that most of his peers would disagree with, and you don't want to miss what he says. ----- Follow Meb on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube For detailed show notes, click here To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com ----- Sponsor: AcreTrader is an investment platform that makes it simple to own shares of farmland and earn passive income, and you can start investing in just minutes online. For more information, please visit acretrader.com/meb Sponsor: Today's episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world's largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Subscribe for free here. Follow The Idea Farm: Twitter | LinkedIn | Instagram | Tik Tok ----- Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com ----- Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more. ----- Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Bonds yields have weakened recently, making November the best month for global bonds since 2008 and for US bonds since 1985. Is this the start of a recovery in the bond market, which has been battered and bruised for the past 3 years running? Or, is this just a temporary reprieve? To find out, we have to good fortune to hear from bond expert Alf Peccatiello of The Macro Compass. Alf sees inflation coming down, which is making today's 4-5% Treasury yields extremely attractive to today's large institutional buyers who want to lock them in. He sees bonds prices doing very well next year. Alf has just launched a new course education the regular investor about bonds and how to invest in them: https://themacrocompass.org/courses/#bond-market-course The first 50 buyers can get 20% OFF by using the discount code ''ADAM'' at checkout: #bonds #interestrates #inflation
“We are entering a period when over the next six to nine months something could go wrong and historically, it's when the yield curve steepens,” says Alfonso Peccatiello, founder and CEO of The Macro Compass. He explains that if the steepening continues, it will cause serious damage to equity markets and the economy because "the inversion of the yield curve is a leading indicator of a recession.” He believes it's likely that the Federal Reserve is done raising interest rates, but it will keep the federal-funds rate above the level of inflation for 24 to 27 months. “That's what worries me... They are not talking about cutting rates even if inflation slows down," he says. And he stresses that the impact of the Fed's aggressive rate-hike policy hasn't settled into the economy. “We're entering the periods where the macro lags are more likely to kick in because the curve has been inverted already for 17 months and it's now steepening back,” he says. Finally, he advises investors to decrease exposure to equity markets and invest in treasuries. ➡️ Watch Here
On todays episode of Forward Guidance, Alfonso Peccatiello Founder & CEO of The Macro Compass joins the show for a discussion on the U.S bond market sell-off and it implications for broader markets, both domestically & internationally. Weighing sentiment, risk/reward & economic signals, Alfonso assesses if the current sell-off is justified, or is the trend about to reverse and provide an attractive opportunity to go long bonds? To hear all this & much much more, you'll have to tune in! -- Sign up to The Macro Compass bond course & use the code "Macro20" for a 20% discount: https://www.themacrocompass.com/courses/#bond-market-course -- Follow Alfonso on Twitter: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:32) The Bond Market Sell-Off (11:38) Testing Bond Market Sentiment (21:16) What Could Go Wrong Being Long Bonds? (27:37) Bond Market Term Premium (35:05) The Best Risk/Reward Is Short Equities (38:36) The Real Weakness Is In Europe (46:28) The Dollar Wrecking Ball (51:00) Understanding The Yield Curve: Bear Steepening (54:58) Supply & Demand In The U.S Bond Market (58:46) Bank Bond Buying & Interest Rate Hedging (01:17:40) Bear Steepening During An Inverted Yield Curve (01:23:16) Will Bonds Continue Selling Off Until Something Breaks? (01:28:47) Are European Banks More Resilient Than U.S Banks, Or Not? (01:35:00) The Macro Compass Bond Market Class & 20% Discount -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets
Macro Alf is the founder of The Macro Compass, an investment strategy firm. In this interview, we discuss different types of bank money, QE, deficits, money printing, and whether a debt spiral is looming. - - - - What constitutes ‘money printing' is a hotly contested topic and something we have convered on the show numerous times. The debate among economists of what "money printing" is and its impact on the ‘real economy' revolves around two key ideas: the definition of money printing and its actual influence on the economy. While some experts equate money printing with direct central bank action like quantitative easing, others take into account broader credit creation and the impact that has on the broader money supply and the economy. The delineation between the financial sector and the real economy is the crucial proponent and while some economists view money printing as primarily affecting asset prices and financial markets, with limited direct impact on the production of goods and services. Others stress that adding liquidity to the system is enough to create financial stability and increase confidence in the economy, therefore, affecting consumer and business decisions, and again, the ‘real economy'. In this episode, we get to the bottom of money creation, how it impacts the economy and the role of central banks in managing an economy. Show notes: https://www.whatbitcoindid.com/podcast/money-printing-the-debt-spiral This episode's sponsors: Iris Energy - Bitcoin Mining. Done Sustainably Ledn - Financial services for Bitcoin hodlers Bitcasino - The Future of Gaming is here Ledger - State of the art Bitcoin hardware wallet Wasabi Wallet - Privacy by default Unchained - Secure your bitcoin with confidence
“This direct connection that mainstream economics wants to draw between the amount of bank reserves in the system and lending, stimulating the economy, doesn't exist.”— Macro AlfMacro Alf is the founder of The Macro Compass, an investment strategy firm. In this interview, we discuss different types of bank money, QE, deficits, money printing, and whether a debt spiral is looming.- - - - What constitutes ‘money printing' is a hotly contested topic and something we have convered on the show numerous times. The debate among economists of what "money printing" is and its impact on the ‘real economy' revolves around two key ideas: the definition of money printing and its actual influence on the economy. While some experts equate money printing with direct central bank action like quantitative easing, others take into account broader credit creation and the impact that has on the broader money supply and the economy.The delineation between the financial sector and the real economy is the crucial proponent and while some economists view money printing as primarily affecting asset prices and financial markets, with limited direct impact on the production of goods and services. Others stress that adding liquidity to the system is enough to create financial stability and increase confidence in the economy, therefore, affecting consumer and business decisions, and again, the ‘real economy'.In this episode, we get to the bottom of money creation, how it impacts the economy and the role of central banks in managing an economy.- - - - This episode's sponsors:Iris Energy - Bitcoin Mining. Done Sustainably Ledn - Financial services for Bitcoin hodlersBitcasino - The Future of Gaming is hereLedger - State of the art Bitcoin hardware walletWasabi Wallet - Privacy by defaultUnchained - Secure your bitcoin with confidence-----WBD694 - Show Notes-----If you enjoy The What Bitcoin Did Podcast you can help support the show by doing the following:Become a Patron and get access to shows early or help contributeMake a tip:Bitcoin: 3FiC6w7eb3dkcaNHMAnj39ANTAkv8Ufi2SQR Codes: BitcoinIf you do send a tip then please email me so that I can say thank youSubscribe on iTunes | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | YouTube | Deezer | TuneIn | RSS FeedLeave a review on iTunesShare the show and episodes with your friends and familySubscribe to the newsletter on my websiteFollow me on Twitter Personal | Twitter Podcast | Instagram | Medium | YouTubeIf you are interested in sponsoring the show, you can read more about that here or please feel free to drop me an email to discuss options.
Follow Forward Guidance On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3Y0oueY Follow Forward Guidance On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/3hXQu2F Follow Blockworks Macro On YouTube: https://bit.ly/3NKpujX -- Alfonso Peccatiello, founder of The Macro Compass, returns to Forward Guidance to discuss why there's no U.S. recession as of yet, how long is the lag of rate hikes' effect on the economy, and why bonds haven't performed well despite a rapid fall in inflation. Jack and Alfonso debate whether central banks print money, and Alfonso poses a spirited challenge to the predictive power of liquidity (bank reserves) on risk assets. Filmed on July 12, 2023. -- Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow On The Margin on Twitter https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ The Macro Compass: https://t.co/zmbDLZ99iN -- Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Use code PODS20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can't-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- (00:00) Introduction (00:33) The Recession That Didn't Show Up (11:48) How Big Is The Tightening of Credit Availability? (20:33) Is Quantitive Easing (QE) "Money Printing"? Jack & Alf Debate (30:12) Money Printing Type #1: Fiscal Deficits (39:13) Money Printing Type #2: Bank Lending (47:20) Money Printing Type #3: Non-Bank Lending (50:37) Can "Liquidity" Explain Market Returns? Alf Says No! (01:02:01) Why Haven't Bonds Performed As Inflation Has Fallen? (01:07:51) When Recession? — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance or On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Alfonso Peccatiello, founder of The Macro Compass, returns to Forward Guidance to discuss why there's no U.S. recession as of yet, how long is the lag of rate hikes' effect on the economy, and why bonds haven't performed well despite a rapid fall in inflation. Jack and Alfonso debate whether central banks print money, and Alfonso poses a spirited challenge to the predictive power of liquidity (bank reserves) on risk assets. Filmed on July 12, 2023. Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ The Macro Compass: https://t.co/zmbDLZ99iN -- Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissio... -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can't-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- (00:00) Introduction (00:20) The Recession That Didn't Show Up (11:35) How Big Is The Tightening of Credit Availability? (20:15) Is Quantitive Easing (QE) "Money Printing"? Jack & Alf Debate (29:45) Money Printing Type #1: Fiscal Deficits (38:47) Money Printing Type #2: Bank Lending (46:53) Money Printing Type #3: Non-Bank Lending (49:20) Can "Liquidity" Explain Market Returns? Alf Says No! (01:00:43) Why Haven't Bonds Performed As Inflation Has Fallen? (01:06:34) When Recession? — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Marcus Ashworth, columnist with Bloomberg Opinion, joins the program to discuss the Bank of England and outlook for the UK economy. Natalie Wong, Real Estate Reporter with Bloomberg News, joins the show in studio to discuss today's Bit Take story on empty office buildings becoming a “debt time bomb." Matt Calkins, CEO at Appian (NASDAQ: APPN), joins to discuss his company's performance, new A-I products and the impact of AI on tech, and outlook for the industry and artificial intelligence. Erica Adelberg, MBS Strategist with Bloomberg Intelligence, joins to discuss her notes on mortgage pressures from the Fed and breaks down this week's housing data. Alfonso Peccatiello, author and founder of the Macro Compass, joins to discuss global economies and outlook for inflation after the latest Bank of England meeting. Rania Sedhom, Managing Partner at Sedhom Law Group, joins us in studio to discuss legal issues as it relates to work-from-home as well as non-competes and the role they play in media and the Tucker Carlson saga. Hosted by Paul Sweeney and Madison Mills.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
In this episode, the ReSolve Team is joined by Alphonso Peccatiello (aka MacroAlf), Founder and CEO of The Macro Compass and Former Head of Investments at ING in the Netherlands. In this comprehensive discussion, Alf explores the complexities of the global economy, investment strategies and portfolio management in an era of central bank influence and demographic shifts. Key themes addressed include: • The importance of comprehensive investment strategies, portfolio construction and market analysis to hedge against potential drawdowns and capture growth opportunities • Diversifying in a changing monetary environment, focusing on global economic growth, portfolio optimization and central bank influence • Adapting investment strategies to embrace demographic shifts and evolving fiscal policies in 2022 • Building diverse and neutral portfolios for long-term success and navigating economic slowdowns while leveraging investment opportunities • The role of inflation, recession and diversification in portfolio management and considering global economic trends, labor market dynamics, and private credit in macro investing • The relevance of global liquidity, rebalancing strategies and learning from past investment patterns to construct a robust, risk-adjusted portfolio Alf offers invaluable insights for investors looking to navigate the intricacies of the global economy, adapt their investment strategies to shifting trends and build portfolios that are prepared for challenges and opportunities in the coming years. This is “ReSolve's Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management. *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey are joined by Alfonso "Alf" Peccatiello. He's the founder and CEO of disruptive investment-strategy firm The Macro Compass. His company provides educational macroeconomic analysis and professional portfolio strategies to bridge the gap between Wall Street and everyday investors. And Alf brings those same skills to the podcast by simplifying complex topics for our listeners. Dan and Corey begin the episode by talking about chipmaker Nvidia. Its recent earnings report sent shares soaring and prompted one of the biggest moves in U.S. stock market history by market cap. Part of the reason for that big move was the company projecting a huge increase in sales next quarter. The chips that Nvidia makes will help with the coming artificial-intelligence revolution, so investors are buying in hand over fist. However, Dan and Corey question whether the company is worth these high valuations. Alf then joins the conversation to discuss the debt ceiling. He predicts that U.S. politicians will probably reach a deal to raise it... but he also analyzes the magnitude and severity of damage to economic growth that a default would bring. Alf further explains that he believes Republican Party members are using time to their advantage to try to get the best out of the deal, since the Democrats took more time to start negotiations. Regardless of what happens with the deal, he warns... Investors must always have attackers and defenders in their portfolio. Next, Alf mentions the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hikes and how those have caused U.S. stocks to remain relatively expensive. But even with this poor outlook for U.S. stocks, he points out that you can still find "attackers" in Japanese stocks. With the country's nominal growth picking up, wages rising over 4%, and the new Bank of Japan governor not rushing to raise interest rates, Japanese equities are reasonably valued and poised for growth. Lastly, Alf and Dan revisit March's banking meltdown. Alf notes that loose regulations led to terrible risk management, but he argues that the rest of the banking industry will not be affected much. Now, though, the second part of the problem is exposure to commercial real estate, credit quality, and the asset quality of bank loans. In short, the banking system is deteriorating. Tune in to hear Alf and Dan's take on what's coming next so you can prepare yourself for this slow-moving train wreck.
On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey are joined by Alfonso "Alf" Peccatiello. He's the founder and CEO of disruptive investment-strategy firm The Macro Compass. His company provides educational macroeconomic analysis and professional portfolio strategies to bridge the gap between Wall Street and everyday investors. And Alf brings those same skills to the podcast by simplifying complex topics for our listeners. Dan and Corey begin the episode by talking about chipmaker Nvidia. Its recent earnings report sent shares soaring and prompted one of the biggest moves in U.S. stock market history by market cap. Part of the reason for that big move was the company projecting a huge increase in sales next quarter. The chips that Nvidia makes will help with the coming artificial-intelligence revolution, so investors are buying in hand over fist. However, Dan and Corey question whether the company is worth these high valuations. Alf then joins the conversation to discuss the debt ceiling. He predicts that U.S. politicians will probably reach a deal to raise it... but he also analyzes the magnitude and severity of damage to economic growth that a default would bring. Alf further explains that he believes Republican Party members are using time to their advantage to try to get the best out of the deal, since the Democrats took more time to start negotiations. Regardless of what happens with the deal, he warns... Investors must always have attackers and defenders in their portfolio. Next, Alf mentions the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hikes and how those have caused U.S. stocks to remain relatively expensive. But even with this poor outlook for U.S. stocks, he points out that you can still find "attackers" in Japanese stocks. With the country's nominal growth picking up, wages rising over 4%, and the new Bank of Japan governor not rushing to raise interest rates, Japanese equities are reasonably valued and poised for growth. Lastly, Alf and Dan revisit March's banking meltdown. Alf notes that loose regulations led to terrible risk management, but he argues that the rest of the banking industry will not be affected much. Now, though, the second part of the problem is exposure to commercial real estate, credit quality, and the asset quality of bank loans. In short, the banking system is deteriorating. Tune in to hear Alf and Dan's take on what's coming next so you can prepare yourself for this slow-moving train wreck.
Jacob welcomes Alfonso Peccatiello from The Macro Compass back onto the podcast for a conversation about Italian eating rules, the debt ceiling (should you care about it?), Chinese investment viability, and trade analysis on their favorite emerging markets. You can find more of Alf's work: https://www.themacrocompass.com/--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(01:18) – The debt ceiling/U.S. macro(20:09) – Is China investable?(27:35) – Europe, specifically, Italy, Poland, and Romania(37:48) – Japan(43:44) – Indonesia--CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/CI Website: https://cognitive.investmentsCI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvestJacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients' material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Referenced In The Show:--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Chartable - https://chartable.com/privacyPodtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp
Rebecca Hotsko and Alfonso Peccatiello discuss the current market outlook, including the driving force behind the market rally, its sustainability, Alfonso's prediction of a 0% rate cut by the Fed in 2024, and a whole lot more!Alfonso Peccatiello is former Head of a $20 billion Investment Portfolio and now is the Founder and author of The Macro Compass, which is an investment strategy firm that provides financial education, macro insights and investment ideas.IN THIS EPISODE, YOU'LL LEARN:00:00 - Intro.02:05 - His current market outlook, whether this recent market rally is sustainable or not. 10:43 - Why Alfonso expects the Fed to cut rates to 0% in 2024?22:07 - How the long-term debt cycle works, what are the key factors that drive it over time? 29:27 - Why Alfonso believes we are in the very late stages of the long term debt cycle?33:41 - What implications does this has economically, and for the financial markets? 34:02 - Will we see a period of deleveraging similar to 2008 and 1929 in the US? 41:11 - The difference between a period of deleveraging and a recession. 50:22 - His thoughts on the trend of de-dollarization, is a US dollar centric world over and are there any possible alternatives to this dollar central world? 54:49 - The Impacts that an economic downturn and de-leveraging would have on a US dollar based global system.60:09 - Alfonso's portfolio strategy and investment take-aways given his outlook. *Disclaimer: Slight timestamp discrepancies may occur due to podcast platform differences.BOOKS AND RESOURCESCheck out The MacroCompass. Check out: The MacroCompass Substack. Related Episode: Listen to MI232: Understanding Quantitative Easing w/ Alfonso Peccatiello , or watch the video.NEW TO THE SHOW?Check out our Millennial Investing Starter Packs.Browse through all our episodes (complete with transcripts) here.Try Robert and Rebecca's favorite tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: TIP Finance.Enjoy exclusive perks from our favorite Apps and Services.Stay up-to-date on financial markets and investing strategies through our daily newsletter, We Study Markets.Learn how to better start, manage, and grow your business with the best business podcasts.P.S The Investor's Podcast Network is excited to launch a subreddit devoted to our fans in discussing financial markets, stock picks, questions for our hosts, and much more! Join our subreddit r/TheInvestorsPodcast today!SPONSORSGet a FREE audiobook from Audible.Instead of trying to time the market or pick single stocks, automate your investments and invest in a variety of companies with Betterment.What does happen when money and big feelings mix? Tune in to find out on the new podcast, Open Money, presented by Servus Credit Union.Apply for the Employee Retention Credit easily, no matter how busy you are, with Innovation Refunds.Enjoy soft, stretchy bottoms that last forever with birddogs. Use promo code INVESTING and get a free Yeti-style tumbler with every order.Partner with a specialized agency focused on making insurance as easy as possible for real estate investors. Take advantage of monthly reporting, monthly billing, and coverage for all phases of occupancy with National Real Estate Insurance Group.Support our free podcast by supporting our sponsors.Connect with Rebecca: Twitter | InstagramEmail: Rebecca@theinvestorspodcast.comConnect with Alfonso: Website | Twitter See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
“The de-dollarization is going to happen and it's going to be a very painful process,” says Alfonso Peccatiello, founder and CEO of The Macro Compass. He says moving away from the dollar-centric transaction system will result in “geopolitical tension, wars, tectonic shifts, and nothing we hope for as humanity.” On top of that, “We have created $12 trillion of debt, denominating in dollars but issued by entities that are not in the U.S… when they became debt in a currency that is not controlled, they basically become independent of dollar inflows from their trade to service their debt, so they need to sell more commodities in dollars to pay their dollar debt and dollar coupons.” Ahead of the Fed's upcoming meeting, Alfonso says the central bank is expected to approve a 25-basis-point boost. ➡️ Watch Here
Dan and Guy are joined by Liz Young, head of investment strategy at SoFi, to discuss what will move the broader market (4:00), Wall Street sentiment (8:00), earnings (11:00), what history says about a recession (26:00), what Liz is watching this week (31:00), and ODTE options (33:00). Dan sits down with Alfonso Peccatiello, Founder & CEO of The Macro Compass, and talk about what options in the stock and bond market are saying (40:00), how to spot a recession (46:30), how investors should be thinking about leading indicators (51:30), the market doesn't bottom before a recession (59:00), and leaving tech stocks for more defensive positions (1:04:00). Hedge Funds Place Biggest Ever Short on Benchmark Treasuries ---- Shoot us an email at OnTheTape@riskreversal.com with any feedback, suggestions, or questions for us to answer on the pod and follow us @OnTheTapePod. We're on social: Follow Dan Nathan @DanNathanRR on Twitter Follow @GuyAdami on Twitter Follow Danny Moses @DMoses34 on Twitter Follow us on Instagram @RiskReversalMedia Subscribe to our YouTube page
When today's guest was last on this program in early February, he warned that markets were "in La La Land" -- meaning they were too optimistic at a time the macro data was warning of an approaching recession. Well, here we are, a quarter later and -- after swooning for a month and a half -- the S&P has powered back to exactly where it was when he gave his warning. It's in rally mode despite the macro data raising even more recessionary alarm bells -- that, plus we've experienced several systemic scares since February, including the collapse of sizbale banks Credit Suisse and SVB. Are the markets seeing true upside here that the bears are just missing? Or are the markets simply seeing what they hope to see & ignoring reality, setting themselves up for a painful reckoning? For a detailed exploration into these key questions, we welcome Alf Peccatiello, publisher of the Macro Compass and former bond portfolio manager, back to the program. Learn more about Alf's work at: https://themacrocompass.com/. Or follow him on Twitter @macroalf ************************************************* At Wealthion, we show you how to protect and build your wealth by learning from the world's top experts on finance and money. Each week we add new videos that provide you with access to the foremost specialists in investing, economics, the stock market, real estate and personal finance. We offer exceptional interviews and explainer videos that dive deep into the trends driving today's markets, the economy, and your own net worth. We give you strategies for financial security, practical answers to questions like “how to grow my investments?”, and effective solutions for wealth building tailored to 'regular' investors just like you. There's no doubt that it's a very challenging time right now for the average investor. Above and beyond the recent economic impacts of COVID, the new era of record low interest rates, runaway US debt and US deficits, and trillions of dollars in monetary and fiscal stimulus stimulus has changed the rules of investing by dangerously distorting the Dow index, the S&P 500, and nearly all other asset prices. Can prices keep rising, or is there a painful reckoning ahead? Let us help you prepare your portfolio just in case the future brings one or more of the following: inflation, deflation, a bull market, a bear market, a market correction, a stock market crash, a real estate bubble, a real estate crash, an economic boom, a recession, a depression, or another global financial crisis. Put the wisdom from the money & markets experts we feature on Wealthion into action by scheduling a free consultation with Wealthion's endorsed financial advisors, who will work with you to determine the right next steps for you to take in building your wealth. SCHEDULE YOUR FREE WEALTH CONSULTATION with Wealthion's endorsed financial advisors here: https://www.wealthion.com/ Subscribe to our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCKMeK-HGHfUFFArZ91rzv5A?sub_confirmation=1 Follow Adam on Twitter: https://twitter.com/menlobear Follow us on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/Wealthion-109680281218040 #recession #fed #bonds ************************************************* IMPORTANT NOTE: The information and opinions offered in this video by Wealthion or its interview guests are for educational purposes ONLY and should NOT be construed as personal financial advice. We strongly recommend that any potential decisions and actions you may take in your investment portfolio be conducted under the guidance and supervision of a quality professional financial advisor in good standing with the securities industry. When it comes to investing, past performance is no guarantee of future results. Any historical returns, expected returns, or probability projections may not reflect actual future performance. All investments involve risk and may result in partial or total loss.
What was the short-lived SVB baking crisis all about? Has it forced the Fed's hand? Are we done tightening? Lots of Macro questions so who better to dig into it with than the appropriately nicknamed Macro Alf. In this episode of The Derivative, we sit down with Alfonso Peccatiello, founder of The Macro Compass and owner of the wonderful Twitter handle @MacroAlf to discuss the challenges of generating alpha in a low-volatility environment. Peccatiello shares his experience of working for ING Bank and managing the Treasury Department's investment portfolio, how regulatory forces have pushed the large players into what looks currently like the wrong investments. They explore the difficulty of generating more return by taking the same amount of risk, especially in a market where the last basis point of carry of risk premia available was the name of the game. Alfonso and Jeff also delve into the bond market's predictive ability (or maybe more fair to say inability) and its role in predicting the economy's future, the importance of risk management, and the blending of systematic and discretionary processes in making investment decisions. They emphasize the need to consider various factors when analyzing the bond market and interpreting its nuances, plus so much more! So sit back, relax, and get ready to learn valuable insights into investment and macro trading and the challenges faced in generating alpha in a low-volatility environment — SEND IT! Chapters: 00:00-02:18 = Intro 02:19-14:54= It's Alf! Regulatory schemes, Bond exposure, Macro volatility, & Quitting the bank 14:55-25:34= Real Estate: The largest asset class under pressure 25:35-35:38= The Macro Compass – Blending Risk appetite, Research & tools 35:39-50:39= The fall of SVB: regulations, funding & risk management & The Swiss Credit Suisse 50:40-01:02:48= Off the Radar: China & its reopening From the Episode: Fed Pricing chart Follow Alfonso on Twitter @MacroAlf and check out his research, podcasts, and more at TheMacroCompass.com and subscribe! Don't forget to subscribe to The Derivative, follow us on Twitter at @rcmAlts and our host Jeff at @AttainCap2, or LinkedIn , and Facebook, and sign-up for our blog digest. Disclaimer: This podcast is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as legal, business, or tax advice. All opinions expressed by podcast participants are solely their own opinions and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of RCM Alternatives, their affiliates, or companies featured. Due to industry regulations, participants on this podcast are instructed not to make specific trade recommendations, nor reference past or potential profits. And listeners are reminded that managed futures, commodity trading, and other alternative investments are complex and carry a risk of substantial losses. As such, they are not suitable for all investors. For more information, visit www.rcmalternatives.com/disclaimer
In the past week, the US has seen 3 bank failures, a new lending facility from the Federal Reserve, and a rush of bankers using their identified collateral for new borrowing. Gold is getting a bid but the base metal complex is looking shaky. We connect with the Macro Compass author, Alfonso Peccatiello, about these events, the regulations needed to prevent another bank run, the Fed's new creative tools, and what investors (and their families) might look at to survive the turmoil in the economy. We'd like to thank our sponsors: Western Copper and Gold is focused on developing the world-class Casino project in Canada's Yukon Territory. The Casino project consists of an impressive 11 billion pounds of copper and 21 million ounces of gold in an overall resource. Western Copper and Gold trades on the TSX and the NYSE American with WRN. Be sure to follow the company via their website, www.westerncopperandgold.com. ASCU is an early-stage copper developer and explorer of the Cactus Mine and its satellite project, Parks/Salyer, both situated on a 4km mine trend on private land in Arizona's porphyry copper district. Opportunity for significant growth and scale exist along the trend, while future capex requirements outlined in the Cactus PEA benefit from significant onsite and nearby access to infrastructure. The Company is led by an executive management team and Board which have a long-standing track record of successful project delivery in North America. For more information, please visit www.arizonasonoran.com. Fireweed Metals is advancing 3 different projects within the Yukon and Northwest Territories, including the flagship Macmillan Pass Project, a large zinc-lead-silver deposit and the Mactung Project, one of the largest and highest-grade tungsten deposits in the world. Fireweed plans to advance these projects through exploration, resource definition, metallurgy, engineering, economic studies and collaboration with indigenous people on the path to production. For more information please visit fireweedmetals.com.
Alfonso "Alf" Peccatiello is the founder and CEO of the Macro Compass, and the ex-head of a $20B bond portfolio. Alf joins me to discuss - is the economy as strong as it seems, whether the labor market is weakening, what's going on in Europe, the Chinese reopening story and more!
Alfonso (“Alf”) Peccatiello, founder of The Macro Compass and host of The Macro Trading Floor, returns to Forward Guidance to argue why he is starting to like bonds at this point in the business cycle. Alf and Jack discuss inflation, the labor market, the Fed hiking cycle, “higher for longer,” the housing market, the earnings cycle, and how all of these factors affect the future performance of longer-duration Treasury bonds. Filmed on March 2, 2023. -- Follow Alf on Twitter https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ The Macro Compass on Substack: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ The Macro Compass: https://www.themacrocompass.com/subscribe/ -- Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can't-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:16) Alf's Framework for 2023 (08:37) Bond Market Is NOT Currently Pricing A True "Higher For Longer" (15:06) The Housing Market (28:22) Recession in June 2023, Says Alf (33:16) Permissionless plug (34:19) Decoupling - Could Oil & Copper Rise Even As U.S. Enters Recession? (38:55) Alf's View On Bonds & Stocks (45:04) Is It Likely That Bonds Can Perform As The Fed Continues to Hike? (Jack's Question) (48:35) Inflation (52:29) Research Plug (53:27) Are Consumers "Feeling The Heat?" (56:36) Is It Time To Go Long, Or Time To Go Short, Or Time To Go Fishing? (59:56) The Macro Compass -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Tom welcomes back Alfonso Peccatiello author of the Macro Compass Substack to the show. Alfonso is predicting a recession in the US starting in May or June of this year. He bases this prediction on three indicators - the frozen housing market, the Fed's attempt to engineer tighter financial conditions, and the reaction of central banks to inflation. He also talks about immaculate disinflation, which is an environment where inflation comes down rapidly without a recession. The market is pricing this, which means people are selling insurance trades like the dollar, volatility, and cash, and buying high-beta stocks. Alfonso disagrees with this take and believes a recession is still more likely than a soft landing. He notes that the stock market usually bottoms before earnings bottom, and that valuations start to rise as the Fed cuts rates. He believes that a true bull market won't be seen until 2024, and that people should be wary of trying to anticipate the Fed's pivot. He also notes that the bond market underpins everything in the current financialized economy. The amount of debt between private and public sectors is 300-400% of GDP and bond yields are the price of the cost of borrowing. An inverted yield curve has hardly ever mis-forecasted a recession, and he cautions against believing that “this time is different”. Finally, he talks about net liquidity decreasing due to the Fed running off its balance sheet. The Treasury General Account is taking the hit instead of reserves, but once the debt ceiling debate is resolved, the Treasury General Account will need to be replenished. This will cause a double whammy effect on liquidity between June and December, with quantitative tightening running on the background. Ultimately, the Federal Reserve's running off its balance sheet removes liquidity from the system. Alfonso also talks about how to avoid getting stuck in a narrative and what data should be paid attention to. He recommends self-awareness, training oneself to not think that one knows everything, and building a macro process and data-driven macro process. He advises looking for episodes of extreme market conviction, as it allows one to understand when things are getting stretched and when people are assigning too much conviction. He also encourages people to become active macro investors, as this is a much more complicated investing landscape than before. Talking Points From This Week's Episode Alfonso predicts a recession in the US starting in May or June of this year, based on three indicators.The market is pricing in a soft landing but more likely a true bull market won't be seen until 2024.He advises looking for market conviction, examining the macro environment, and develop market self-awareness in order to understand the complex financial landscape. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:05 - Base Case For Markets4:30 - Immaculate Disinflation7:44 - Recession Insurance9:53 - Expectations & FOMO19:12 - FED Timing & Pivots21:55 - Macro & Bond Markets25:29 - Yield Curve Inversion29:38 - Fed Balance Sheet35:05 - Narratives & Data39:40 - Risks & Wrap Up Guest Links:Website: https://www.themacrocompass.com/Twitter: https://twitter.com/MacroAlfSubstack: https://TheMacroCompass.substack.com Alfonso Peccatiello is the Founder & CEO of The Macro Compass, a disruptive investment strategy firm whose mission is to democratize professional macro analysis, tools and portfolio strategy. The Macro Compass leverages Alf's experience running large pools of institutional money and offers financial education, unique macroeconomic insights, and actionable investment strategy. Before launching The Macro Compass, Alfonso was the Head of Investments for a $20 billion portfolio for ING Germany.
Recession or soft landing? Today's guest says that's the most important question for investors to answer correctly here at the start of 2023. The Fed is telling us: "Don't worry, we've got this under control". And right now, it appears both the stock and bond markets agree with it. On the other hand, there's a growing stampede of macro data warning that a recession -- likely a bad one -- is unavoidable at this point. Which outcome is more likely? To dig into this, we welcome Alf Peccatiello, publisher of the Macro Compass and former bond portfolio manager, back to the program. ************************************************* At Wealthion, we show you how to protect and build your wealth by learning from the world's top experts on finance and money. Each week we add new videos that provide you with access to the foremost specialists in investing, economics, the stock market, real estate and personal finance. We offer exceptional interviews and explainer videos that dive deep into the trends driving today's markets, the economy, and your own net worth. We give you strategies for financial security, practical answers to questions like “how to grow my investments?”, and effective solutions for wealth building tailored to 'regular' investors just like you. There's no doubt that it's a very challenging time right now for the average investor. Above and beyond the recent economic impacts of COVID, the new era of record low interest rates, runaway US debt and US deficits, and trillions of dollars in monetary and fiscal stimulus stimulus has changed the rules of investing by dangerously distorting the Dow index, the S&P 500, and nearly all other asset prices. Can prices keep rising, or is there a painful reckoning ahead? Let us help you prepare your portfolio just in case the future brings one or more of the following: inflation, deflation, a bull market, a bear market, a market correction, a stock market crash, a real estate bubble, a real estate crash, an economic boom, a recession, a depression, or another global financial crisis. Put the wisdom from the money & markets experts we feature on Wealthion into action by scheduling a free consultation with Wealthion's endorsed financial advisors, who will work with you to determine the right next steps for you to take in building your wealth. SCHEDULE YOUR FREE WEALTH CONSULTATION with Wealthion's endorsed financial advisors here: https://www.wealthion.com/ Subscribe to our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCKMeK-HGHfUFFArZ91rzv5A?sub_confirmation=1 Follow Adam on Twitter: https://twitter.com/menlobear Follow us on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/Wealthion-109680281218040 #stocks #bonds #recession ************************************************* IMPORTANT NOTE: The information and opinions offered in this video by Wealthion or its interview guests are for educational purposes ONLY and should NOT be construed as personal financial advice. We strongly recommend that any potential decisions and actions you may take in your investment portfolio be conducted under the guidance and supervision of a quality professional financial advisor in good standing with the securities industry. When it comes to investing, past performance is no guarantee of future results. Any historical returns, expected returns, or probability projections may not reflect actual future performance. All investments involve risk and may result in partial or total loss.
Alfonso Peccatiello, Founder and CEO of 'The Macro Compass', presents his views on macro-economics at the Holland Gold Monetary Horizons XL Event. Alfonso worked for many years as Head of Investments at ING Germany. Nowadays, he provides his subscribers via ' The Macro Compass' with extensive analyses on macro-economics and links this to concrete advice. Alfonso expects challenging times for the European economy. He explains why the European economy has been able to prosper in recent decades and why this is likely to be different in the coming years. Due to the war between Russia and Ukraine, cheap energy is no longer a given and during the pandemic, supply chains have proved fragile. On top of this, Europe faces a shrinking labor force, which will not help economic growth either. Furthermore, in this video Alfonso discusses the real estate market. Using charts and figures, he explains why he expects real estate prices to continue to fall. At the end Alfonso answers questions from the audience about crypto and gold. Special offer: 20% discount on a yearly subscription with the discount code: HOLLANDGOLD Dutch version: Alfonso Peccatiello, Founder en CEO van de ‘The Macro Compass', presenteert tijdens het Holland Gold Monetary Horizons XL Event zijn visie op de macro-economie. Alfonso was jarenlang werkzaam als Head of Investments by ING Duitsland. Tegenwoordig voorziet hij zijn abonnees via ‘The Macro Compass' van uitgebreide analyses op macro-economisch gebied en koppelt hij dit aan concrete adviezen. Alfonso verwacht uitdagende tijden voor de Europese economie. Hij legt uit waarom de Europese economie heeft kunnen floreren in de afgelopen decennia en waarom dit in de komende jaren waarschijnlijk anders zal zijn. Als gevolg van de oorlog tussen Rusland en Oekraine is goedkope energie niet langer een vanzelfsprekendheid en tijdens de pandemie zijn aanbodketens fragiel gebleken. Daar bovenop heeft Europa te maken een krimpende werkpopulatie wat de economische groei ook niet ten goede zal komen. Verder gaat Alfonso in deze video in op de vastgoedmarkt. Aan de hand van grafieken en cijfers maakt hij duidelijk waarom hij verwacht dat de vastgoedprijzen verder zullen dalen. Tot slot beantwoordt Alfonso vragen vanuit het publiek over goud en crypto. Overweegt u om goud en zilver aan te kopen? Dat kan via de volgende website: https://bit.ly/3xxy4sY Twitter: @MacroAlf: @Hollandgold: @paulbuitink: @JorisBeemsterb1: Let op: Holland Gold vindt het belangrijk dat iedereen vrijuit kan spreken. Wij willen u er graag op attenderen dat de uitspraken die worden gedaan door de geïnterviewde niet persé betekenen dat Holland Gold hier achter staat. Alle uitspraken zijn gedaan op persoonlijke titel door de geïnterviewde en dragen zo bij aan een breed, kleurrijk en voor de kijker interessant beeld van de onderwerpen. Zo willen en kunnen wij u een transparante bijdrage en een zo volledig mogelijk inzicht geven in de economische marktontwikkelingen. Al onze video's zijn er enkel op gericht u te informeren. De informatie en data die we presenteren kunnen verouderd zijn bij het bekijken van onze video's. Onze video's zijn geen financieel advies. U alleen kunt bepalen hoe het beste uw vermogen kunt beleggen. U draagt zelf de risico's van uw keuzes. Klik hier voor meer informatie over goud en zilver: https://www.hollandgold.nl
Get Opto's best content every day, by subscribing to our FREE Newsletter: www.cmcmarkets.com/en/opto/newsletterToday I have the pleasure of interviewing Alfonso Peccatiello, founder & CEO of The Macro Compass, a disruptive investment strategy firm whose mission is to democratize professional macro analysis, tools, and portfolio strategy.The Macro Compass leverages Alf's experience running large pools of institutional money and offers financial education, unique macroeconomic insights, and actionable investment strategy. Before launching The Macro Compass, Alfonso was the Head of Investments for a $20 billion portfolio for ING Germany.In this interview we review Alf's global market outlook for 2023 touching on why the labor market holds the key and what asset classes and instruments could perform well and not so well in this environment. Enjoythemacrocompass.com@MacroAlfThanks to Cofruition for consulting on and producing the podcast. Want further Opto insights? Check out our daily newsletter: https://www.cmcmarkets.com/en-gb/opto/newsletter------------------Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.CMC Markets is an execution-only service provider. The material (whether or not it states any opinions) is for general information purposes only and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment, or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by CMC Markets or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although we are not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, we do not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination.CMC Markets does not endorse or offer opinions on the trading strategies used by the author. Their trading strategies do not guarantee any return and CMC Markets shall not be held responsible for any loss that you may incur, either directly or indirectly, arising from any investment based on any information contained herein for any loss that you may incur, either directly or indirectly, arising from any investment based on any information contained herein.
Alfonso Peccatiello, Founder, CEO, & Macro Strategist at The Macro Compass (https://themacrocompass.com) joins us for an amazing deep dive into what is behind all of today's macro-economic and macro-market considerations and discussions. If you're interested in getting at what is at the heart of today's volatile inflation, interest rate, bond yield, and monetary policy considerations across all regions including Europe and the US, don't miss this conversation.Alfonso Peccatiello's explanation of what is driving all macro considerations in the sobering monetary policy environment we find ourselves in today, is eye-opening. Macro Alf, (@macroalf on Twitter) as he is otherwise known across the internet, provides an eloquent and lucid view of the bewildering plumbing of the economy and markets.Alfonso once ran a $20-billion portfolio at ING Bank, and while there, operated in the midst of personal consultations with among many others, all central bankers, central banks, and trading floors across Europe and the UK. He has a deep understanding of global bond markets, and his familiarity with all things macro has bestowed him with a rare gift of being able to explain some of the most complicated topics of the financial system so that anyone can begin to understand how it all works.His substack and podcast are/were among the most popular finance outlets across the financesphere of the internet.****************Where to find Alfonso Peccatiello, The Macro Compass****************The Macro CompassAlfonso Peccatiello on TwitterAlfonso Peccatiello on LinkedinThe Macro Compass Substack***************Where to find the Raise Your Average crew:***************ReSolve Asset ManagementReSolve Asset Management BlogMike Philbrick on LinkedinRodrigo Gordillo on LinkedinAdam Butler on LinkedinPierre Daillie on LinkedinJoseph Lamanna on LinkedinAdvisorAnalyst.com
On today's edition of Boiler Room, Alfonso Peccatiello walks through his most recent article on The Macro Compass titled "The BIS ''Hidden USD Debt'' Story Explained". This week the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) released a bombshell report that made the rounds reporting on the roughly $100 Trillion in "hidden" USD debt. Alfonso walks through the mechanics of the report and dispels some of the doomsday scenarios that made some headlines. To find out more, you'll have to tune in! — Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Follow Boiler Room: https://twitter.com/PodBoilerRoom Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ — Referenced In The Show: The BIS ''Hidden USD Debt'' Story Explained: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/usd-hidden-debt#details Dollar debt in FX swaps and forwards: huge, missing and growing: https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt2212h.htm — Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (02:14) King Dollar Matters (05:46) What's This ‘‘Hidden Debt'' All About? (09:18) Where Is The Problem? (14:27) Final Thoughts — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Dan and Danny discuss Fed Chair Powell's speech this week (1:50), December volatility (5:30), what could happen when China reopens (12:30), retail stocks (15:24), Salesforce (18:00), the CNBC Sam Bankman-Fried interview (22:45), tether (26:45), and Danny's NFL picks of the week (33:20). Later, Guy and Danny interview Alfonso Peccatiello, Founder & CEO of The Macro Compass, and talk about similarities between the stock market now and 2001 (42:25), what's next to break (), the correlation between copper and gold (51:20), stagflation (55:40), what can go right (1:03:45), and the Macro Compass (1:05:40). Check out our show notes and transcript here ---- See what adding futures can do for you at cmegroup.com/onthetape. ---- Shoot us an email at OnTheTape@riskreversal.com with any feedback, suggestions, or questions for us to answer on the pod and follow us @OnTheTapePod. We're on social: Follow Dan Nathan @RiskReversal on Twitter Follow @GuyAdami on Twitter Follow Danny Moses @DMoses34 on Twitter Follow us on Instagram @RiskReversalMedia Subscribe to our YouTube page
On today's edition of Boiler Room, Alfonso Peccatiello walks through his most recent article on The Macro Compass titled "Let's Not Be Stupid Macro Investors". As a long-term or tactical macro investor, the emotion-driven biases threatening to kill our performance are countless. Alfonso walks through his 3 investing principles to help investors best position themselves in markets so ensure they assets that are return additive and low correlation assets. — As a listener of Boiler Room, you will be able to get access to TMC content for the entire 2023 by paying only 9 months instead of 12! Check out which subscription tier suits you the most and grab your last chance to be an early bird subscriber using the discount code ‘‘TMC2''! https://www.themacrocompass.com/subscribe/ — Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Follow Boiler Room: https://twitter.com/PodBoilerRoom Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ — Referenced In The Show: Let's Not Be Stupid Macro Investors: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/stupid-mistakes-macro-investors#details — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:57) Common Mistakes & How To Avoid Them (04:13) You Sure You're Running 5 Positions, Or Is It Just 1? (06:58) Do Not Proxy Trade (09:08) Final Thoughts — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
IN THIS EPISODE, YOU'LL LEARN:02:09 - Why Banks are at serious risk of losing deposits.09:25 - Why the ECB is changing its tune on monetary policy.17:01 - The recent Fed meeting.39:46 - The underlying risk with pension funds using interest rate swaps.58:44 - Expectations for the current yield curve inversion.And much, much more!Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences.BOOKS AND RESOURCESThe Macro Compass' Newsletter.Alf's Twitter.Trey Lockerbie's Twitter.Related Episode: European Fragmentation Policy & Mounting Global Pressures w/ Alf Pecca - BTC089.Related Episode: Understanding Quantitative Easing w/ Alfonso Peccatiello - MI232.NEW TO THE SHOW?Check out our We Study Billionaires Starter Packs.Browse through all our episodes (complete with transcripts) here.Try our tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: TIP Finance Tool.Enjoy exclusive perks from our favorite Apps and Services.Stay up-to-date on financial markets and investing strategies through our daily newsletter, We Study Markets.Learn how to better start, manage, and grow your business with the best business podcasts. P.S The Investor's Podcast Network is excited to launch a subreddit devoted to our fans in discussing financial markets, stock picks, questions for our hosts, and much more! Join our subreddit r/TheInvestorsPodcast today!SPONSORSGet position and investment info for nearly 6,000 Asset Management Companies with Moomoo, Australia's first A.I. powered trading platform. Sign up and fund your moomoo account before October 31 and get $10 for every $100 you deposit. All investment carries risk. AFSL 224 663. T&Cs apply.Find an advisor who's invested in you with iA Financial Services Inc.If your business has five or more employees and managed to survive Covid you could be eligible to receive a payroll tax rebate of up to twenty-six thousand dollars per employee. Find out if your business qualifies with Innovation Refunds.Whether you're exploring ways to manage volatility, seeking income and diversification opportunities, or looking for tax management strategies- Invesco has over 200 ETFs to help you meet your financial goals. Visit invesco.com for a prospectus with this information.Invest in high-quality, cash-flowing real estate without all of the hassle with Passive Investing.Private assets represent 98% of companies in North America but are absent in most portfolios. Reconstruct your portfolio with private markets with Mackenzie Investments.Throw out the old traditions and get progressive. Discover the complete package - smart design, lots to love under the hood with Genesis.Have gold and silver shipped directly to your door for you to hold at your home. Get BullionMax's Gold Investor Kit today - 3 ounces of the world's most desirable gold coins, including the Gold American Eagle and Canadian Maple Leaf.More wealth, more purpose, or making more of a difference? Commonwealth Private helps you create more of yours - with exceptional service and experts who meticulously tailor opportunities for you.Take a position daily on potential price movements, and gain exposure while limiting risk with Interactive Brokers.If you're aware you need to improve your bitcoin security but have been putting it off, Unchained Capital's Concierge Onboarding is a simple way to get started—sooner rather than later. Book your onboarding today and at checkout, get $50 off with the promo code FUNDAMENTALS.Get personalized, expert advice that helps you see things clearly with ATB.In a world of probabilities, trade the possibilities with Pepperstone.If you're a sales professional, get every real time advantage you can get with Sales Navigator. Enjoy 60 days of free trial today.Enjoy 10% off your first booking in Viator's world of over 300,000 experiences you'll remember. Download the Viator app now and use code VIATOR10.Monitor your recovery, sleep, training, and health, with personalized recommendations and coaching feedback with WHOOP. Use code WSB to save 10% off your order today.Start building a portfolio of alternative farm and timberland assets with AcreTrader.Enjoy a 400-calorie meal that contains 40g of expertly sourced, premium plant protein, all 26 essential vitamins and minerals, and a scientifically calibrated mix of carbs, good fats and fiber with Huel Black Edition. Plus, get a free t-shirt and free shaker with your first order.Support our free podcast by supporting our sponsors.HELP US OUT!Help us reach new listeners by leaving us a rating and review on Apple Podcasts! It takes less than 30 seconds, and really helps our show grow, which allows us to bring on even better guests for you all! Thank you – we really appreciate it!See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
On today's edition of Boiler Room, Alfonso Peccatiello walks through his most recent article on The Macro Compass titled "The Bond Market Is Talking: Are You Listening?". While equities have rallied in recent weeks, investors are split between wether this signals a market bottom, or a bear market rally. With the end of the year often posting positive equity returns, we have to dig under the surface and look at the bond market to help us. Alfonso walks through the signals the bond market is telling and describes how we can position to benefit from that, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! — Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Follow Boiler Room: https://twitter.com/PodBoilerRoom Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ — Referenced In The Show: The Bond Market Is Talking: Are You Listening?: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/bond-market-talking#details Secure Your Spot on The Macro Compass! https://themacrocompass.substack.com/about — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:07) When The Bond Market Talks, You Better Listen (04:30) What Is This: 2001? (07:54) The Fed Pivot... Or Pause (11:07) What Is Happening In Markets? (14:40) The Macro Compass — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
On today's edition of Boiler Room, Alfonso Peccatiello walks through his most recent article on The Macro Compass titled "A Pivot From Hawkish To...More Hawkish". This week, the Fed raised rates by 75bp. Many expected the following press conference to be dovish and markets rallied upon anticipation. As soon as Powell spoke, those gains reversed as Powell reiterated “it's very premature to think about pausing”. Alfonso breaks down the Fed conference, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! — Referenced In The Show: A Pivot From Hawkish To...More Hawkish: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/from-hawkish-to-more-hawkish#details Minutes of the Meeting of the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee November 1, 2022: https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy1074 __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (01:07) Powell's Press Conference (06:55) Powell Aims To Regain Credibility (10:19) A Fed Pivot From Hawkish To...More Hawkish! (12:25) Monetary Plumbing: Treasury General Account & Reverse Repo __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Alf is the former head of a $20B investment portfolio, a passionate global macro investor, and the author of a free newsletter called, “The Macro Compass," available on Substack. On this episode, Alf helps us understand macro in a digestible way. What's in our potential future? How bad will it hurt? How long will it last? Answers to these questions and much more in the interview. ------
IN THIS EPISODE, YOU'LL LEARN: 01:30 - What conventional monetary policy is and what are the main tools the Fed uses to achieve its two part mandate. 01:30 - What unconventional monetary policy is and why central banks use these tools. 09:26 - What is quantitative easing (QE) and how it works. 14:41 - How the use of QE leads to artificially inflated asset prices. 19:30 - How does the Fed's quantitative tightening impact mortgage rates? 41:11 - What will happen to stock prices as the Fed unwinds its balance sheet? 54:11 - Why UK pension funds started to default and could this happen in the US? 01:00:02 - What is driving the recent strength in the dollar?01:03:43 - What would cause the Fed to pivot from tightening to QE again? 01:05:47 - How a strong dollar impacts corporate earnings and profits. And much, much more!*Disclaimer: Slight timestamp discrepancies may occur due to podcast platform differences.BOOKS AND RESOURCESCheck out Alfonso's financial writings: The Macro Compass. Related Episode: Central Banking 101 w/ Joseph Wang - MI190.NEW TO THE SHOW?Check out our Millennial Investing Starter Packs.Browse through all our episodes (complete with transcripts) here.Try Robert and Clay's favorite tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: TIP Finance.Enjoy exclusive perks from our favorite Apps and Services.Stay up-to-date on financial markets and investing strategies through our daily newsletter, We Study Markets.Learn how to better start, manage, and grow your business with the best business podcasts.P.S The Investor's Podcast Network is excited to launch a subreddit devoted to our fans in discussing financial markets, stock picks, questions for our hosts, and much more! Join our subreddit r/TheInvestorsPodcast today!SPONSORSGet a FREE audiobook from Audible.Invest in high quality, cash flowing real estate without all of the hassle with Passive Investing.If your business has five or more employees and managed to survive Covid you could be eligible to receive a payroll tax rebate of up to twenty-six thousand dollars per employee. Find out if your business qualifies with Innovation Refunds.Join Steadily and BiggerPockets in recognizing and celebrating landlords nationwide by participating in the #AmericasBestLandlord contest. Find out how you can win $10,000 today.Take a position daily on potential price movements, and gain exposure while limiting risk with Interactive Brokers.Enjoy a 400-calorie meal that contains 40g of expertly sourced, premium plant protein, all 26 essential vitamins and minerals, and a scientifically calibrated mix of carbs, good fats and fiber with Huel Black Edition. Plus, get a free t-shirt and free shaker with your first order.Design your perfect suit with Indochino. Get 10% off any purchase of $399 or more by use promo code INVEST.Don't limit your dreams to the imagination. Explore Iowa for yourself.Private assets represent 98% of companies in North America but are absent in most portfolios. Reconstruct your portfolio with private markets with Mackenzie Investments.Support our free podcast by supporting our sponsors.Connect with Alfonso: Twitter | LinkedIn Connect with Rebecca: Twitter | InstagramSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
On today's edition of Boiler Room, Alfonso Peccatiello walks through his most recent article on The Macro Compass titled "A Chat With The Top Macro Hedge Funds". After being in London for Blockworks' DAS Summit, Alfonso had the chance to speak with some some macro hedge funds. Alfonso reflects on their contrarian views from the conversations he had with those funds, to share how macro hedge funds are viewing the world in this market condition. To hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Referenced In The Show: A Chat With The Top Macro Hedge Funds: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/chat-with-macro-hedge-funds#details -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:17) Housing IS The Business Cycle (04:51) Death By A Thousand Cuts Or A Systemic Risk Event? (08:02) Using The Last 10-Year Framework Won't Work (10:57) Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
On today's edition of Boiler Room, Alfonso Peccatiello walks through his most recent article on The Macro Compass titled "The Pension Funds Drama Explained". Leveraged bets, illiquid assets and pending liabilities have led to a UK pension fund crisis. How did pension funds end up in this tenuous state? Are US and European pensions next, and what does this mean for investment portfolios? Tune in to find out! -- Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Referenced In The Show: The Pension Funds Drama Explained: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/pension-fund-drama#details -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:34) Pension Funds 101 (05:47) Everything Was Fine, Until Volatility Hit (08:46) Can This Happen To The US & Europe? (11:21) Investment Implications -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Link zu unserer Discord Community https://discord.gg/TQrnHcnCFQ Unterstütze uns mit einer Mitgliedschaft www.promilleprozente.de Der Devisenmarkt macht mit Blick auf das Handelsvolumen den größten Teil der weltweiten Finanzmärkte aus. Aber die meisten Privatleute kümmern sich allenfalls im Urlaub um die Wechselkurse. Wir erklären in dieser Folge die Grundmechanismen im Devisenhandel, schauen in die “Werkzeugkiste” der Notenbanken und sprechen über die Verflechtungen mit den Aktien- und Anleihemärkten. Durch die aktuell starke Aufwertung des US-Dollar geraten viele andere Währungen stark unter Druck, was die Stabilität der Devisenmärkte in Gefahr bringen kann. Zu Beginn schauen wir wie immer auf das aktuelle Marktgeschehen und die zarten Versuche einer erneuten Bärenmarktrallye. Außerdem hat Elon Musk nun doch Twitter gekauft und die OPEC fördert weniger Öl - wir ordnen beides für euch ein. Themen in dieser Folge Intro: Überblick zur Folge, Whisky, Recap China (00:15) Neue Bärenmarktrallye? (11:07) Elon Musk kauft Twitter (18:12) OPEC kürzt Förderquote (22:03) Basiswissen Devisenmarkt (27:10) Was ist ein “Carry Trade”? (37:48) Intervention der Bank of Japan (43:10) Intervention der Bank of England (53:50) Outro (62:00) Quellen, Links und Infos zu dieser Folge Newsletter “The Macro Compass”: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Macro Compass bei Twitter: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf So handeln wir Aktien und ETFs: Scalable Capital und Trade Republic https://financeads.net/tc.php?t=37121C142861264B * (Scalable Capital) https://financeads.net/tc.php?t=37121C274449894T * (Trade Republic) Kryptos: Kraken https://r.kraken.com/kmLEV * (*) Affiliate Link: Kostet dich nichts, wir bekommen eine Provision & können den Podcast finanzieren. Danke! Kontakt Mail: fanpost@promilleprozente.de Instagram: www.instagram.com/promilleprozente Twitter: https://twitter.com/Promille_Pod Web: www.promilleprozente.de Risikohinweis Die im Podcast geteilten Inhalte stellen keine Anlageberatung dar! Wir informieren in diesem Podcast lediglich über unsere persönlichen Interessen und Investitionsentscheidungen. Wir weisen ausdrücklich darauf hin, dass ein Kauf von Aktien oder anderen Finanzprodukten im schlimmsten Fall zu Verlusten bis hin zum Totalverlust des eingesetzten Vermögens führen kann. Wir übernehmen keine Haftung für entstandene Verluste. Foto: John McArthur --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/promilleprozente/message
On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello walks through his most recent article on The Macro Compass titled “Wait: Is It 2001 Again?!” This week, Alfonso draws parallels between the 2000 - 2001 period by looking at inflation, equities & bond market performance. As markets have caught many investors off guard this year, it's important to look back throughout history to inform asset allocation. As Mark Twain famously said “History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes”. Just how similar is the 2000 - 2001 period compared to today? To find out, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Alfonso Follow Blockworks Subscribe To The Macro Compass Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter -- Referenced In The Show: Wait: Is It 2001 Again?! -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:45) Refreshing The Macro Framework (07:16) The Monetary Policy Stance Remains VERY TIGHT (10:06) The Powell Credibility Indicator (11:06) Early 2001 Is Here, Again! -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello walks through his most recent article on The Macro Compass titled "FX Markets Are On Fire". In 2022, FX markets are back with a vengeance. For the last 20+ years, developed markets' economic models were based on a two-tier system of globalization and credit creation. In 2022, as inflation continues to shock the global financial system, economic models are being flipped upside down as some of the strongest currencies, now become some of the weakest. In this video, Alfonso walks through the strongest, the weakest & the safest currencies in today's environment by identifying six key indicators, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Referenced In The Show: FX Markets Are On Fire: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/fx-markets-on-fire#details -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:29) FX Fundamentals Are Back With A Vengeance (05:45) Japan: Is The YCC Ever Going To Stop? (08:49) Switzerland: Strong and Orthodox (11:12) The UK: Oh Dear… (12:42) The U.K Mortgage System (14:02) Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello walks through his most recent article on The Macro Compass titled "Trust Me: It Will Be Enough". After this weeks FOMC meeting, as Powell reiterated his hawkish stance, markets struggled to price in Fed policy. With echoes of Mario Draghi's famous "whatever it takes" speech in July 2012, Powell highlighted to markets that "it will be enough", the Fed will be able to break the back of inflation. So just how will markets reach to Powell's "much tighter, for much longer" stance? To find out, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Referenced In The Show: Trust Me: It Will Be Enough: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/it-will-be-enough#details -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:48) The Fed Dot Plot (03:55) Powell Is Channelling His Inner Volcker (07:06) Risk Asset's & Equities (08:37) Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
With their monetary policy, "the Fed is not able to affect the most sticky parts of the economy yet," says Alfonso Peccatiello, publisher of the financial newsletter The Macro Compass. "Inflation remains relatively high," he says. And he believes core services and rent of shelter will be the last to be quelled. Because the drivers of inflation aren't going down, "the Fed cannot be happy about this," Peccatiello continues. "The bond market knows the more the Fed is tightening today, the more long-term damage will be done to the economy," he surmises. Peccatiello concludes that Europe will make it through the winter, "but it will cost 7% to 10% gross domestic product," and will hit the private sector severely.
On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello walks through his most recent article on The Macro Compass titled "Putin vs Europe - The Long War". In June, Putin gave a speech on the global economy that began circulating social media over the weekend. In that speech Putin reiterated the point that ''The economy of imaginary wealth is being inevitably replaced by the economy of real and hard assets''. With all of the problems Europe has faced this year, particularly surrounding energy prices before they head in to winter, Alfonso breaks down Putin's strategy as he aims to bring Europe to its knees. -- Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Referenced In The Show: Putin vs Europe - The Long War: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/the-long-war#details Putin's Speech On The Economy: https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1565704584747749382 -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:28) Putin's Speech On The Economy (06:45) Europe's Business Model Is Reversing -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Fearing deflation and eager to sponsor growth post the GFC, Central Banks around the world became a near permanent fixture in markets, gathering vast stockpiles of risk free assets. Few were more impactful in determining clearing prices than was the ECB. With this in mind, it was a pleasure to welcome Alfonso Peccatiello, founder of the Macro Compass, to the podcast.Our conversation is one part retrospective, looking back on the period between 2013 and 2019 when interest rates in the Eurozone descended to shocking low and negative levels. Alf shares his views on the trade-offs in seeking favorable risk-adjusted carry in such a low rate regime, making the point that it's important to identify and understand the capital that serves to sponsor the trade along with you. We touch on some of the unique political considerations for risk assets in Europe and here, Alf looks back on a shock to Italian markets that materialized in May of 2018 as fears advanced that a Euro-skeptic government coalition could seek to abandon the Euro.We also survey the uncertainties today, focusing on the risks that may result from nominal yields in Italy approaching 4%. From Alf's perspective, while there is plenty of negative sentiment, one can argue that the price of risk does not fully reflect the degree of economic and financial vulnerability resulting from the combination of inflation and the risks of energy prices.Lastly, we touch on Alf's efforts at the Macro Compass, the newsletter he launched to share his insights on the big picture of risk and to play a role in financial education. I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Alfonso Peccatiello
On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello walks through his most recent article on The Macro Compass titled "The Moment of Truth for Markets". Alf breaks down what is being priced in European & U.S bond markets after Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole speech and an upside inflation report out of Europe. After a clear market sell-off through the beginning of 2022, markets in recent months have rallied from the lows. Alf argues that now is the "moment of truth". Should we expect further downside throughout 2022 and into 2023, or not? To find out, you'll have to tune in! Read The Moment of Truth for Markets: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/the-moment-of-truth-for-markets#details -- Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:24) The European Bond Market (07:33) U.S Markets (09:54) Powell Will Be Happy With Markets Post Jackson Hole (13:30) Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello walks through his most recent article on The Macro Compass titled "Fed Pivot My A*S”. We just heard Jerome Powell deliver a very decisive speech in Jackson Hole where he stressed that the Fed won't be making another mistake: after underestimating inflation in 2021 and delaying the tightening cycle, they will not prematurely stop now. Alfonso breaks down how to interpret Jerome's remarks, what the economic data is showing and where to look for short-term market opportunities. -- Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Read Fed Pivot My A*S: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/jackson-hole#details -- Timestamps (00:00) Intro (01:47) Housing Activity is Slowing Down Rapidly (04:26) Quantitative Tightening Matters (07:19) Monetary Conditions Will Continue to Tighten (10:09) Market Opportunities -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Tom welcomes back Alfonso Peccatiello author of the Macro Compass Substack to the show. Alfonso believes the Repo markets could be the most important part of the pyramid going forward. The system is continuing to add more layers and levels to the way markets work. Repo markets exist below bonds at the very base of the pyramid. Repo markets allow for leveraging of bonds and treasuries. Repo markets are very active to the tune of trillions per day. Pension funds, asset managers, or corporate treasurers are on the other side of these trades. So long as financing costs are predictably low, there aren't many problems. There is a lot of cash chasing a limited amount of collateral. When Repos become unsteady, it shakes the entire pyramid structure. These markets can become very tight rapidly. The Fed has not changed its inflation targets. They want to be improving inflation expectations because it impacts their credibility. They are very committed to shrinking their balance sheets. The chances of a soft landing in this environment are quite low. It will likely take a fairly big recession to bring inflation back to two percent. Probably a recession that lasts up to two years. However, the system is much more leveraged and fragile than in the past. This makes addressing the problems much more complex. He shows us the G5 Credit Impulse chart. It reflects private sector bank balances and if they are increasing or shrinking. This is indicative of economic activity across the G5 nations and is a leading indicator of economic activity. It's currently falling off a cliff, and therefore economic growth and earnings are likely to fall further. A recession is when people are fired and are losing their jobs. This shows up in business models that start to crumble, and then bleeds over to the rest of the economy and housing. He says, "We are going to have a proper recession." Markets want to make money, and they wish to hear that inflation is coming under control. However, this is not the case. We need momentum for inflation figures to decline. Investors should be cautious in the risks they take with their portfolio. Something very foundational will have to break for the Fed to change to a dovish approach. There will be a point where they have generated enough 'damage' to the economy where inflation control is regained. Talking Points From This Week's Episode The importance of the Repo markets and why they are foundational.Fed's inflation targets and why a pivot may be quite some time away.Defining inflation and why the Fed has to get it under control. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:05 - Bond Markets & Repos3:45 - Repo Trading Volume6:20 - Managing Repo Risk9:29 - 2019 Repo Problems12:20 - Bear Traps & Inflation18:04 - Tightening & Bankers22:06 - A Soft Landing?25:03 - Job Markets Report29:32 - G5 Credit Impulse34:02 - Recession Nuances35:48 - CPI Prints & Fed Targets41:58 - Force a Fed Pivot?44:40 - Portfolio Positioning48:33 - Wrap Up Guest Links:Substack: https://TheMacroCompass.substack.comTwitter: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Alfonso Peccatiello is a former head of a twenty-billion-dollar Investment Portfolio and is a passionate global macro investor. He writes The Macro Compass, a financial newsletter providing actionable investment ideas and unique macroeconomic insights to enhance the risk/return of your portfolio.
On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello walks through his most recent article on The Macro Compass titled "On The Art Of Macro Portfolio Construction". Many investors have a macro thesis, but how can you translate that into an actionable portfolio? Alfonso breaks down how he approaches portfolio construction by walking through his macro compass model and how these 4 quadrants can influence asset allocation for different periods of the business cycle. -- Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Read On The Art Of Macro Portfolio Construction: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/macro-portfolio-construction#details -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:21) The Macro Compass Model (06:03) CAD/JPY (09:06) Structuring A Portfolio With Limited Correlations (12:33) Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
"Finally we got a slowdown in the momentum of inflation," says Alfonso Peccatiello, publisher of financial newsletter The Macro Compass. And he says most of this reduction comes from energy prices and commodities. He believes the Fed's tool is one big hammer, "that consists of a combination of raising interest rates and reducing the balance sheet." Peccatiello continues on, touting long-term bonds as a good bet because, "the Federal Reserve and ECB are willing to choke the economy right now." As winter approaches, "Putin will probably squeeze [energy prices] for Europe even further," Peccatiello concludes.
On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello walks through his most recent article on The Macro Compass titled "Fading The Soft Landing Narrative". As CPI printed at 8.5%, market participants felt relief as many believe these are the early signs of inflation beginning to subside. On the back of a better than expected inflation report, markets began rallying as the market prices in a soft landing. Alfonso walks through exactly why markets rallied on the better than expected CPI report and if this is really just a bear market rally trap. But to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Referenced In The Show: Fading The Soft Landing Narrative: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/fading-soft-landing#details -- Timestamps: (00:00) Fading The Soft Landing (01:52) The Labour Market (04:57) The CPI Report (12:39) Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
We're back with Episode 2 of the Prometheus Podcast! This recording is one of many podcasts to come, which will cover far-ranging topics in macro, markets, and investing. As always, our objective is to bring you thoughtful and actionable insights, and our conversations will always aim to be so. Today, we have an exceptional guest, Alfonso Peccatiello- author of The Macro Compass. The Macro Compass is the largest macro Substack out there, and with good reason- Alfonso has a deep and rich understanding of the monetary system, which he has weaponized into an actionable investment framework. His approach is cogent and extremely relevant in today's policy setting. During an in-depth conversation, they discussed the mechanics of the monetary system, the difference between various forms of credit, and how this can all be distilled into an investment portfolio. This is a must-listen for those wishing to link a robust monetary framework to actual risk-taking. Enjoy! Find the show notes below:(00:00 - 11:20) Monetary Mechanics: Private Sector Money Verus Financial Sector Money.(11:20 - 22:30) Government Impulse: Private Money Versus Government Money, The Limits On Credit Creation, Government Spending Limitations. (22:30 - 28:15) The Macro Compass: Credit Impulse, Monetary Policy Stance Versus Neutral. (28:15 - 33:30) Risk Overlay: Strategic Portfolio, Tactical Portfolio, Stop Losses. (33:30 - 41:30) The US Macro Environment: We're In The Worst Quadrant, The Fed, Inflation, Risk Rally, & Bonds. (41:30 - 46:00 ) Risks To The Outlook: Soft Landing, Treasury Sales By The Fed, Implementing Risk Management.Make sure to check out his Substack: Click here. For more “high-frequency” insights like these, follow both @prometheusmacro & @MacroAlf on Twitter.If you enjoyed this episode, make sure to let us know in the comments below. Finally, if you haven't already, don't forget to subscribe! This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit prometheusresearch.substack.com
Alfonso Peccatiello of The Macro Compass joins the show for an epic conversation on the current state of the economy and financial markets. Recession, inflation, foreign currencies, real estate, and much more are covered as Alfonso applies his decades of expertise to provide you with actionable information that can assist in your own investment portfolio. Sign up for our free weekly newsletter at https://www.JayMartin.club
On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello walks through his most recent article on The Macro Compass titled "The Crazy Market Rally Explained". After a sharp decline in markets throughout 2022, many investors were caught off guard by the recent rally in equites. Is the bear market over? Should we expect a rally from here? "Hold your horses" says Alfonso. -- Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Referenced In The Show: The Crazy Market Rally Explained: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/crazy-market-rally#details -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:45) The Fed's Neutral Rate (04:21) Inflation Is Priced To Slow Down Aggressively (05:55 )Real Rates Are Driving Markets (10:01) Slaying The Inflation Dragon -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Alfonso “Alf” Peccatiello, author of The Macro Compass and former $20 Billion fund manager, joins Jack Farley to break down yesterday's action-packed Fed meeting, in which Fed Chair Jay Powell laid out the Fed's revised framework for moderating the rampant inflation that has beset the U.S. economy. Alf tells Jack why the tightening of financial conditions that the Fed aims for requires a further fall in risk assets, and therefore he expects that cash will perform well. Filmed the morning of June 16, 2022. -- Follow Alf on Twitter https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Alfonso Peccatiello's writings can be found at https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ His most recent piece that he and Jack discuss can found here: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/bad-cop-good-cop?s=r#details -- The Fed's June statement: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/monetary20220615a1.pdf The Fed's Summary of Economic Projections (SEP): https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20220615.pdf -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) FOMC Overview (06:30) Powell - Good Cop or Bad Cop? (09:40) Inflation Expectations and Terminal Rate (12:25)Leverage and VaR Shock (17:08) Can The Fed Actually Control Inflation? (23:13) The Impact Of Higher Rates On Portfolio Allocation (29:37) What Does This Mean For Your Portfolio? (41:43) The Fed's Real Yield Paradigm Shift -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
We're joined by the Macro Compass writer, Alfonso Peccatiello, former bank prop trader, to discuss all things macro in the wake of JP Morgan's chief, Jamie Dimon, issuing a hurricane warning - bad things are coming. We examine the meteorological landscape.
Ted Oakley, Founder and Managing Partner at Oxbow Advisors, discusses where the market is going amid a dimming economic outlook. Vidya Peters, COO at Marqeta (NASDAQ: MQ), discusses fintech and how consumers are paying for items. Katie Greifeld, cross-asset reporter with Bloomberg News, discusses ETF investing and emerging market ETFs. Alfonso Peccatiello, author of The Macro Compass and formerly of ING, discusses markets and the economy in 2022. Hosted by Paul Sweeney and Matt Miller. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
On today's episode of "Forward Guidance," Jack Farley is joined by Alfonso Peccatiello, author of The Macro Compass newsletter and host of The Macro Trading Floor podcast on the Blockworks network. Up until very recently, Alfonso was running a multi-billion dollar fixed-income book. Alfonso joins Jack to share his outlook on the Fed's efforts to tighten financial conditions in the hope of reining in inflation. Will these efforts crush the stock market? Will the Fed get its much-desired soft landing? Are there emerging signs of stress in credit spreads? In Alfonso's mind, one thing is for sure, Powell will NOT pivot this time. Monetary policy will be tightened until inflation is under control, Alfonso argues, and those investors relying on a Powell Pivot will be left holding the bag. Alfonso's writings can be found at https://themacrocompass.substack.com/, here are some of the specific pieces he and Jack referenced: “What If?”: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/what-if?s=r “A Mistaken Attempt at Sounding Dovish”: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/serious-ish-about-inflation?s=r Alfonso Peccatiello on Twitter: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Blockworks Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ BCB is Europe's leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the world's largest crypto-engaged financial institutions. For more information, please visit https://bcbgroup.com/jack -- (00:00) Introduction (00:33) Tightening Financial Conditions (08:17) The Macro Compass Quadrant Model (12:08) Stock Market Time Horizons (15:44) Shorting The S&P 500 (19:17) BCB Ad (20:06) Surging High Yield Bonds in Europe (22:53) Credit Spreads (29:43) Powell Is NOT Going to Pivot (35:42) Will the Fed Get Their Soft Landing? (38:58) When Will Bonds Become a Buy? (47:08) Changing Your Minds in Markets -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Tom welcomes back Alfonso Peccatiello author of the Macro Compass Substack to the show. Alf explains his global credit impulse model which measures capital flows during the credit creation cycles of central banks. We are currently in the third part of this cycle where you need to be defensive. He's currently short some equities and expects a drop in housing prices. Investors should increase their dollar reserves and consider holding gold. When things improve then credit becomes more available which increases economic activity but simultaneously begins to build risk. Stability therefore inevitably leads to instability due to leverage and margin calls. We're seeing some of this activity now brewing beneath the surface. He explains how credit spreads work in his educational materials on his website. Spreads are important for corporate lending and are used to assess the creditworthiness of the borrower. When these spreads widen corporations have to pay more due to perceived risk. Higher lending costs may impact business models and result in companies losing access to credit. Currently, these spreads are widening. Many zombie businesses will soon go under, and this will impact equities. These companies will be unable to afford higher rates. The weakest market is probably the Russell 2000, but most will be affected. Many companies have cash flow and valuation problems. He explains the term bond vigilantes and the idea behind global macro vigilantes. He expects a recession to hit Europe this year, and we already see consumer purchasing power declining. Europe is also heavily affected by energy inflation. The Euro is starting to reflect this economic weakness. Real estate markets are looking weak globally, and they are likely to drop somewhat in the coming months. He discusses where markets and gold should head in the coming months. Much of it will depend on the direction of inflation, bonds, and the Fed's policies. Talking Points From This Week's Episode The four quadrants of his global credit impulse model.Why stability tends to create instability in credit markets.Outlook for Europe and the global real estate markets.Factors that will affect gold include bonds and Fed policy. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:44 - His Macro Model3:16 - Defensive Trades4:29 - Stability Vs. Instability7:30 - Credit Spreads10:55 - Equities & Impacts16:40 - Global Macro Vigilante19:36 - Yen Performance25:05 - Europe & Recession27:19 - C.B. Credit Rating29:45 - Fed Hikes & Real Estate34:56 - Getting Defensive36:45 - Safe Havens & Risks42:08 - Deflation Event?43:52 - Wrap Up Guest Links:Substack: https://TheMacroCompass.substack.comTwitter: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Alfonso Peccatiello is a former head of a twenty-billion-dollar Investment Portfolio and is a passionate global macro investor. He writes The Macro Compass, a financial newsletter providing actionable investment ideas and unique macroeconomic insights to enhance the risk/return of your portfolio.
In this episode, Patrick and Kevin welcome Alfonso Peccatiello to the show. Alfonso tells us why he is short S&Ps, credit spreads, Italian BTPs and most importantly, why pineapple pizza is a travesty that should be outlawed immediately. Check out The Macro Compass 🧭 https://bit.ly/38wBRhv ⭐️Visit our merch store!!! 👉https://www.markethuddlemerch.com/ ⭐️ *Got questions for Kevin and Patrick? Submit your questions to: 📩nostupidquestions@markethuddle.com To receive our emails with the charts and links each week, please register at: https://markethuddle.com/
An insider's view of financial collateral, regulations, bond markets, bank reserves, central banks, quantitative easing and more! Alfonso "Macro Alf" Peccatiello of The Macro Compass joins Jeff Snider (and Emil).----EP. 224 REFERENCES----Alfonso Peccatiello's Substack: https://TheMacroCompass.substack.com/Alfonso Peccatiello's Twitter: https://twitter.com/MacroAlfJeff's Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPEmil's Twitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowski-----SEE ALL EPISODES-----Alhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3royEmil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL----HEAR ALL EPISODES-----Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPnApple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNDeezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPEiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cITuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZCastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MReason: https://bit.ly/3lt5NiHSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYPandora: https://pdora.co/2GQL3QgCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQPodbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDghStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBPlayerFM: https://bit.ly/3piLtjVPodchaser: https://bit.ly/3oFCrwNPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKListenNotes: https://bit.ly/38xY7pbAmazonMusic: https://amzn.to/2UpEk2PPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr---------THE TEAM---------Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments. Master of ceremonies, Emil Kalinowski. Illustrations by David Parkins. Audio and video editor, Terence. Episode intro/outro music is "Melodic Space" by VELDA.------FIND THE TEAM-------Jeff: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPJeff: https://alhambrapartners.com/author/jsnider/Emil: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowskiEmil: https://www.EuroDollarEnterprises.comDavid: https://DavidParkins.com/Terence: https://www.VisualFocusMedia.comVELDA: https://www.epidemicsound.com/artists/velda/"Melodic Space": https://www.epidemicsound.com/track/Wkrg98WtJS/
Today's guest is Alfonso Peccatiello aka Macro Alf who has over 106,000 followers on Twitter.He is the author of The Macro Compass a free newsletter delivering financial education, macro insights & investment ideas. Alf was also the former head of a $20 billion investment portfolio.In this conversation, we discuss:1. Why understanding the bond market is paramount2. How demographics affect financial policy and economic output3. The layers of the financial system (bonds, credit, equities)4. Central Bank Digital CurrenciesYou can learn more about Alf here:Twitter: @MacroAlfThe Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/WBF UNIVERSITY - JOIN MY SCHOOL HERE!► https://whiteboardfinance.com/wbf-university-waitlist=======================My FREE Stock Market For Beginners Guide► https://whiteboardfinance.com/go/stockmarket4beginners=======================EXCLUSIVE: Get 1-3 FREE Stocks valued up to $3500 On MooMoo► https://whiteboardfinance.com/go/moomoo=======================FUNDRISE - INVEST IN REAL ESTATE FOR ONLY $500► https://whiteboardfinance.com/go/fundrise=======================My FREE M1 Finance Training Video► https://whiteboardfinance.com/go/m1-finance-training=======================ABOUT ME
Show Notes: 1. Tweet by Callie Cox -https://twitter.com/callieabost/status/15088671396834672832. Tweet by Ryan Detrick -https://twitter.com/ryandetrick/status/1508962681776230405?s=11&t=U3BMjvfImCbAxS0Any_gtQ3. Tweet by JC Parets -https://twitter.com/allstarcharts/status/1508880337383968770?s=11&t=U3BMjvfImCbAxS0Any_gtQ4. Tweet by Evergreen Gavekal -https://twitter.com/evergreengk/status/1509275522886340610?s=11&t=f-eAZEn8H__ZA_HWNAnRig5. Tweet by the author of the Macro Compass -https://twitter.com/macroalf/status/1509214118447833092?s=11&t=45e9IPJzLMPwaQYbJMwGCg6. Tweet by Bloomberg Opinion - https://twitter.com/bopinion/status/1508586710241726467?s=11&t=1XMUedgwI47yHzeQZRYWKQ7. Financial Planning Topic of the week -https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/30/new-retirees-whose-income-drops-may-need-to-appeal-medicare-surcharges.htmlSocial MediaFacebook/Linkedin: @JessupwealthmanagementInstagram/Twitter: @Jessupwealth
An insider's view of regulations, bond markets, bank reserves, central banks, quantitative easing, fancy wines, when it's inappropriate to drink cappuccinos, government-guaranteed bank loans and more! Alfonso "Macro Alf" Peccatiello of The Macro Compass joins Jeff Snider (and Emil).------EP. 194 TOPICS------00:00:00 INTRO: Introducing Alfonso Peccatiello, @MacroAlf and The Macro Compass.00:04:08 Equities can qualify as high quality liquid assets - if you do it correctly.00:05:47 Regulations to make banks safe and restrict activity are cosmetic and worked around.00:08:13 Bank Reserves are inert, non-yielding burdens to the bank portfolio manager.00:13:17 Will bank reserves be inflationary because the reserves can be turned into cash?00:15:30 Will bank reserves force a portfolio reallocation into higher (inflationary?) risk?00:18:27 Do banks replace QE-sold sovereign bond assets with more sovereign bond assets?00:22:30 Are regulations holding back banks from credit/money creation in the real economy?00:24:11 Three factors, in alignment, are required for banks to lend / take-on risk.00:27:57 Bank reserves are immaterial in inflationary AND deflationary environments.00:32:56 Would government-guaranteed bank loans break the economy out of the depression?00:41:16 The world's equilibrium interest rate is heading lower with each cycle.00:43:17 Rehypothecation is a necessity as fewer AAA collateral assets are available.00:47:14 OUTRO: Follow Alfonso on Twitter (@MacroAlf) and Substack (The Macro Compass).----EP. 194 REFERENCES----Alfonso Peccatiello's Substack: https://TheMacroCompass.substack.com/Alfonso Peccatiello's Twitter: https://twitter.com/MacroAlfJeff's Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPEmil's Twitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowski-----SEE ALL EPISODES-----Alhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3royEmil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL----HEAR ALL EPISODES-----Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPnApple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNDeezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPEiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cITuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZCastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MReason: https://bit.ly/3lt5NiHSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYPandora: https://pdora.co/2GQL3QgCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQPodbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDghStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBPlayerFM: https://bit.ly/3piLtjVPodchaser: https://bit.ly/3oFCrwNPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKListenNotes: https://bit.ly/38xY7pbAmazonMusic: https://amzn.to/2UpEk2PPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr---------THE TEAM---------Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments. Master of ceremonies, Emil Kalinowski. Illustrations by David Parkins. Audio and video editor, Terence. Episode intro/outro music is "When To Stop" by Lofive from Epidemic Sound.------FIND THE TEAM-------Jeff: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPJeff: https://alhambrapartners.com/author/jsnider/Emil: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowskiEmil: https://www.EuroDollarEnterprises.comDavid: https://DavidParkins.com/Terence: https://www.VisualFocusMedia.com-----------TAGS-----------#AlfonsoPeccatiello #MacroAlf #TheMacroCompass #SearchForYield
GoldRepublic Podcast: covering the emergence of a new monetary system
In the second part of this educative interview, Alfonso Peccatiello (Author of the Macro Compass newsletter and contributor at Real Vision) explains the consequences of disinflation on asset bubbles, some big macro economic indicators that the threat the stability of the global financial system and the disastrous consequences of a yield curve inversion.
Alf is the author of the free macro newsletter The Macro Compass, which you can find here: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Here he shares his macro outlook, yield curves and what theyre telling us why growth is likely to slow, and more!
Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf) is the author of The Macro Compass, a financial newsletter providing educational macroeconomic insights & actionable investment ideas. Previously, he was the head of a $20 bn Investment Portfolio for a large European bank. In this podcast we discuss: How money is created, where the credit cycle is right now, why the European growth cycle looks better than the US, and ECB hikes. On trades, Alf discussed long EUR/USD and long NASDAQ/short Russell trades and how asset swap trades work. We also talked about Draghi and Italian risks, China's credit cycle turn, and long China real estate trade. Finally, Alf revealed his favourite trade - US 2s10s flatteners, and the books that influenced him the most: Pragmatic Capitalism (Roche), Inside the House of Money (Drobny) and The Holy Grail of Macroeconomics (Koo).
The Masterclass speaker series is back by popular demand, aiming to help students get the real truth behind different careers in finance. To mark the occasion I hosted an incredible guest, Alfonso Peccatiello.Alf is the author of The Macro Compass and was previously the Head of Investment Portfolio for the Treasury department of ING Germany. There, he was in charge of the active management of a $20bn multi-asset portfolio.In the session, Alf talks about how he first got interested in finance, how what he learned at university was useful in shaping his view on markets, and the realities of working as a portfolio manager in a large financial institution.More than this, Alf gives a personal and honest account of his greatest strengths and weaknesses and offers practical advice on how to communicate better, remain humble, and always strive to move forward by being passionate about what you do.Alf's book recommendations:Central Banking 101: https://amzn.to/3u2iHc7Pragmatic Capitalism: https://amzn.to/34a5mU7Balance Sheet Recession: https://amzn.to/3IHjcw7The Holy Grail Of Macro Economics: https://amzn.to/3IC2oGSThe New Economics: https://amzn.to/33WMYynSign up to Alf's Macro Compass newsletter https://themacrocompass.substack.com/Get the AmplifyME daily Market Maker newsletter https://amplifyme.com/market-maker See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.
Tom welcomes Alfonso Peccatiello author of the Macro Compass Substack to the show. Alfonso discusses the main drivers of economic growth and the effects of demographics. The labor force had been growing before the 80s but now with fewer children and older populations, it has plateaued and begun to decline. These changes are long-term and structural. After 1971 and the scrapping of the gold standard there was a shift back to a fully elastic credit system. Hard assets are no longer required to back the currency. Society wants annual growth higher than one percent and today we use credit to expand the money supply. This can promote growth as it causes people to feel more wealthy which encourages spending. Alf explains how there are two different forms of money in the system today. One is bank reserves and the other is the real economy. Q.E. expands the central bank balance sheet reserves but these reserves never flow to the real economy. They are used between banks to settle payments. Q.E. creates secondary and tertiary effects that eventually reach the stock markets and affect asset prices. Reverse Repos operate as a relief valve for excess reserves because the Fed wants to keep bond yields in positive territory. So Repo's is a facility where banks can park reserves and receive a small yield instead of purchasing bonds. The main reason that bonds are bought today is due to regulatory requirements. Banks are required to hold bonds which are considered liquid assets. Pension funds also buy long-term bonds as a hedge to mitigate future risk. He explains the Fed's approach to maintaining their dual mandate of full employment and price stability. Currently, they are in a very tight spot as inflation is running hot. The system is built around debt and is 'working' according to the establishment. There are no politically acceptable alternatives therefore the existing system is just extended by whatever means necessary. Lastly, he discusses his approach to protecting his portfolio in this debt-based system. Talking Points From This Week's Episode Why the long-term drives of economic growth have peaked.How the modern unbacked elastic credit system operates.The two forms of money and why they are often confused.The Fed's approach to price stability and full employment. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:06 - Economic Growth Drivers4:00 - Technology & Productivity6:17 - Debt Compensation9:46 - Q.E. & Asset Prices14:43 - Reverse Repos18:43 - Taper Tantrums22:44 - Real Bond Yields25:34 - Feds Dual Mandate29:20 - Can Kicking34:39 - Risk Positioning38:30 - Wrap Up Guest Links:Substack: https://TheMacroCompass.substack.comTwitter: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Articles:https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/qt-explainedhttps://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/endgame Alfonso Peccatiello is a former head of a twenty-billion-dollar Investment Portfolio and is a passionate global macro investor. He writes The Macro Compass, a financial newsletter providing actionable investment ideas and unique macroeconomic insights to enhance the risk/return of your portfolio.
Bond yields rose across the curve Tuesday and stocks sank, as investors began to price in the potential impact of as many as four Federal Reserve rate hikes in 2022. The U.S. 10-year yield jumped to 1.865%, the highest it's been since January 2020, and the German 10-year bund moved to within one basis point of turning positive for the first time since 2019. U.S. equity indexes were off nearly 2%, while European stocks fell about 1%. The CBOE Volatility Index (known as the “fear gauge”) surged as much as 20% intraday. Meanwhile, Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude prices continued to rise on strengthening global demand and tightening tensions in the Middle East. Still, all eyes are on the Federal Reserve. Alfonso Peccatiello of The Macro Compass welcomes back Nordea Markets Global Rates Strategist Andreas Steno Larsen for a European perspective on what's driving markets today. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3fD6xhw Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Jan 01,2022: Alfonso Peccatiello, the author of the Macro Compass, shares his outlook on 2022 on the first trading day of the year, which saw the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite inch higher. Peccatiello discusses how he sees the economy moving forward: his view on China's economy, the property market, and the Evergrande's debt crisis. Peccatiello also talks about Fed rates, inflation, the bond market, and some of the good news making headlines and reflected in companies like Apple becoming the first company to hit $3 trillion market value and Tesla stocks jumping 9.0% after the company reported record deliveries for 2021. Interviewed by Maggie Lake. Want to submit questions? Drop them here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3JFjVPE Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Dec15,2021:In the most highly anticipated decision of the year, the Fed said it would ramp up its pace of tapering and hike rates three times in 2022. So what does that mean for your investments? Darius Dale, founder and CEO of 42 Macro, shares his thoughts on how investors should position themselves as we head into the New Year. Will Bitcoin be a hedge to an uncertain future? Interviewed by The Macro Compass author Alfonso Peccatiello. Want to submit questions? Drop them here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/325Am6A Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Today's guest, Alfonso Peccatiello, is a man with a rare insight into the macro forces driving the moves in markets which have perplexed many, but not all, investors. One such move is the recent flattening of the yield curve, which belies commonly-held views about the relationship between bond yields and inflation. Up until very recently, Alfonso was running a multi-billion dollar fixed-income book. But he has left the world of portfolio management behind him to focus full time on writing and thinking about macro. His analysis can be found on his newsletter, The Macro Compass. Alfonso shares with Blockworks' Jack Farley the real reason why long-term bond yields have been falling. Among other topics, the pair discuss: - the global credit impulse turning negative - long-term structural forces (such as demographics & debt) - why quantitative easing (QE) isn't inflationary Alfonso Peccatiello's Twitter: @MacroAlf Jack Farley's Twitter: @JackFarley96 Alfonso Peccatiello's newsletter, The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Article on quantitative easing: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/tmc-6-all-they-told-you-about-printing Article on 2022 outlook: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/2022portfolio
Alfonso Peccatiello was recently the manager of a $20B bond portfolio for a European bank, and now writes the Macro Compass newsletter full time. Here he discusses QE, credit, money printing, inflation vs deflation, what it was like running $20B and more! Here's his most recent newsletter piece, discussing the macro framework needed for 2022: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/2022portfolio An interview with a lot of alpha on offer!
DB-Dec06,2021: The Macro Compass is a four-quadrant tool that helps see the macro forest first and then the trees. Alfonso Peccatiello uses this model to determine how to distribute his investment portfolio. Peccatiello discusses on the Daily Briefing investment opportunities in commodities and cryptocurrencies. Interviewed by Maggie Lake. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3lEV3xs Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
In this episode of On The Margin Mike is joined by Alfonso Peccatiello. Alfonso is the author of the weekly online newsletter The Macro Compass. Alfonso shares his thoughts on the signs of slowing structural growth, financial repression, the effect of quantitative easing, reverse repos and how a Bitcoin standard would affect a credit driven economy. --- On the Margin is brought to you by Matrixport, Asia's fastest growing digital asset platform. With $10 billion in assets under management and custody, it provides one-stop crypto financial services with over $5 billion in average monthly trading volumes. The offerings include Cactus Custody™, spot OTC, fixed income, structured products, lending as well as asset management. Download the Matrixport App now to earn 30% APY on USDC. Learn more at https://onthemargin.link/matrixport --- If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter On The Margin is brought to you by Blockworks, a financial media brand delivering breaking news and premium insights about digital assets to millions of investors. For more content like On the Margin, visit http://blockworks.co/podcasts.
The Interview: Could a slowdown in credit creation and a tightening of monetary conditions push bond yields lower and threaten risk assets? Alfonso Peccatiello, fixed income investor and publisher of the Macro Compass, believes that's possible. Peccatiello contends that inflation is indeed transitory, and, disagreeing with the "bond vigilantes," he argues that cash, bonds, and volatility protection will perform better in this environment than high-beta assets such as commodities and bank stocks. Interviewed by Real Vision's Jack Farley on July 2, 2021. Peccatiello's blog, The Macro Compass, can be found here: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
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